Afr.j.polit. sci. (1997), Vol. 2 No. 1, 152-167 
Regional Polarisation in Voting 
Pattern: Malawi's 1994 Elections 
Ezekiel Katipeni* 
Abstract 
This paper briefly examines the unprecedented political events in Malawi that 
began inMarch 1992 and culminatedin multi-party elections in which Dr. Banda's 
regime yielded the reigns of power to a democratically elected government. Using 
detailed results of the 1994 presidential and parliamentary elections, the paper 
argues that regionalism rather than ethnicitx appears to be the dominant factor 
influencing voting patterns at the national level. Regionalism appears to have 
resulted in the formation of three super ethnic groups each with its own regional 
base. Elites are securing political power by redefining the ethnic equation; and 
their competition for scarce resources and political power continues to occur in 
the guise of spatial units, among which the super ethnic region is the more salient, 
and has consequently become the most influential factor in elections. 
Introduction 
The second wave of democratic change that has been sweeping Africa since the late 
1980s (Nzongola-Ntalaja 1995) finally reached Malawi in 1992, and culminated 
in the rise to power of a new and democratically elected government of President 
E. Muluzi in 1994. Hastings Kamuzu Banda, who had ruled Malawi since its 
independence in 1964 and called himself "Life President," grudgingly yielded the 
reigns of power to the forces of reform. After decades during which all dissent was 
suppressed and government opponents were either imprisoned or forced into exile 
(Africa Watch 1990; Lwanda 1993), the country experienced a smooth transition 
to multi-party politics. The outcome of the June 14. 1993 referendum, in which 63 
percent of Malawians favoured multi-party government versus Dr. Banda's single 
party rule (Somerville 1993; Chirwa 1994) was the watershed of the changes that 
1027-0353 © 1997 African Association of Political Science
Regional Polarisation in Voting Pattern: Malawi's 1994 Elections 153 
culminated in the parliamentary and presidential elections held in May 
1994. Dr. Banda and his MCP political party were soundly defeated by the United 
Democratic Front (UDF) in those elections. 
The central objective of this essay is to examine the voting patterns in the 
presidential and parliamentary elections that took place in 1994 from a purely 
geographic perspective in order to shed some light on the structure of Malawi's 
emerging democratic political system. While the making of Dr. Banda as an 
autocrat has been amply discussed elsewhere (Short 1974; Williams 1978; Kalipeni 
1992; Lwanda 1993) and the origins of the events that climaxed in the election of 
a new government in 1994 have also been examined in great depth (Ham and Hall 
1994; Kalipeni 1995a; Rasmusen 1995; Ross 1995 & 1996; Nzunda and Ross 
1995; Mchombo 1995), a detailed examination of the voting patterns and their 
implications for attempts to build a democratic society in Malawi is yet to be 
written. The existing literature has been characterised by generalisations about the 
North-South-Central political polarization along ethnic and regional lines. (Chirwa 
1994; Cullen 1994; Cullen et al. 1995). This paper analyzes the nature and 
dynamics of voting at the national level through the use of descriptive statistics. 
The first part of the essay reviews briefly the evolution of the democracy 
movement. This is followed by a partial analysis of the policies that fashioned 
super ethnic identities out of the variety of tribes that existed before, and then by 
an examination of the voting pattern in the presidential and parliamentary elections. 
It is argued that the voting pattern reveals the development of super-ethnic 
identities that are coterminous with specific regional identities; and that it is these 
ethno-regional identities which influenced voting during the 1994 elections. 
The Democracy Movement 
The movement against Dr. Banda's government can be traced back to the early 
days of independence in the mid-1960s. The opposition to his government was 
systematically persecuted and its remnants forced into exile in neighbouring 
countries, particularly Zambia and Tanzania. The exiled opposition was weak and 
divided, and was rendered ineffective through constant harassment by Banda's 
agents (Sommerville and Mhango 1983). The current phase of the democratic 
movement that led to the removal of the Banda government was born in March of 
1992 when the seven Catholic Bishops in Malawi distributed a Lenten Letter 
attacking the government and calling on Malawians to work for change (La Marche 
1992). This letter sparked off the first ever anti-Banda demonstrations. Labour 
leader, Chakufwa Chihana, then came to prominence when he seized the opportunity 
of open dissent precipitated by the Bishop's letter. Subsequently, he received 
a mandate from a meeting of Malawian dissidents which he attended in Zambia to 
return home and organize a national conference on democracy. His immediate 
arrest on returning to Malawi gave considerable impetus to the democracy
154 Ezekiel Kalipeni 
movement, resulted in the birth of the Alliance for Democracy (AFORD) which 
had the Northern Region as its power base (on account of the fact that Chakufa 
Chihana was from the North), and eventually brought down the Banda regime. 
Shortly after the formation of Chihana's AFORD, other political organisations 
began to form along regional lines. Of significance among the lot was the United 
Democratic Front (UDF) founded by a group of renouned ex-government ministers 
and MCP leaders all of whom had fallen out with Dr. Banda at one time or 
another and had been sacked or jailed(Sommerville 1993). Among the prominent 
figures in the UDF was Aleke Banda (no relation to Dr. Banda) who had been a 
youthful MCPpolitical prodigy in the 1960s and 1970s only to fall from grace when 
he was tipped as a possible successor to Banda; Edward Bwanali, who was regional 
minister for the Southern Region but fell out of favour in the late 1980s after 
suspicion that he had advocated politcal reforms; and Bakili Muluzi who was one 
of the prominent ministers removed from the Banda government as MCP Administrative 
Secretary after Zambian newspapers speculated that he could succeed 
President Banda (Sommerville 1993). Muluzi later emerged as the leader of UDF. 
Due to the past connection of the UDF leaders with the Banda Government, the 
party became known as MCP2. It enjoyed strong following from the Southern 
Region. Because the Southern Region accounts for almost 50 percent of Malawi's 
population, the UDF soon emerged as the strongest opposition group in the 
country. A number of smaller pressure groups also mushroomed throughout the 
country. (Zelesa 1996). 
The Making of "Super Ethnic" Regions? 
In the multiparty elections held in May 1994, Dr. Banda, the last prominent ruler 
in the generation of African leaders who replaced the colonialists, graciously 
conceded defeat and handed power over to the then president elect Bakili Muluzi 
of UDF (Keller 1994; Ransdell 1994). A spatial analysis of the presidential and 
parliamentary votes shows a similar geographic pattern as that of the referendum 
vote held in June 1993. It is clear from the data presented in this paper that region 
rather than ethnicity per se, was a critical factor that influenced the way people 
voted. The task of this paper is to show why regional identities influenced how the 
people voted. 
I use the term super-ethnic region as an explanatory variable. Malawi is a 
conglomeration of 15 different ethnic groups, none of which can claim to be in the 
majority. Some of the ethnic groups are found in all three regions as enclaves. For 
example, the Ngoni groups are found in parts of the Central and Northern Regions 
(see Figure 1). When the Chewa of the Central Region and related ethnic groups 
in the Southern Region (the Mang'anja) are lumped together they form a majority, 
known as the Maravi complex. Although small in number, the Tumbuka ethnic 
group dominates the Northern Region, where their language has become the linqua
Regional Polarisation in Voting Pattern: Malawi's 1994 Elections 155 
franca. It is nonetheless wrong to regard every person from this region as a 
Tumbuka because there are other equally significant ethnic groups. The Tonga, the 
Nyakusya, the Ngonde, etc. are not Tumbuka yet they are generally considered to 
be part of the Tumbuka complex. (Figure 1) The Banda regime was largely 
responsible for encouraging the formation of this super-ethnic identity called the 
Tumbuka. 
ETHNIC DISTRIBUTION IN MALAWI 
Figure 1: Malawi: Ethnic Distribution 
Source: Pike, J. G. and Rimmington, G. T. 1965. Malawi: A Geographical 
Study. London: Oxford University Press. 
Surely colonial policies played a part in this by providing justification for the 
policies of the Banda government. The Northern Region, for example, enjoyed 
much greater access to education than the rest of the country; and to date it enjoys 
the highest literacy rate. It was partly due to this that the Banda government felt
156 Ezekiel Kalipeni 
threatened by northerners whom he branded as the cause of Malawi's political and 
economic problems. As Chirwa( 1994) notes people from the north were politically 
ostracised and persecuted as a consequence. This forced them to stick together for 
a common cause. The image that the regime painted of them as scape-goats for the 
problems of Malawian society, and as people who were always pursuing the 
development of their region at the expense of others exposed them increasingly to 
resentment by people from other regions, which further strengthened the determination 
of such diverse groups in the north as "the Ngonde, Tonga,Tumuka and (the) 
northern Ngoni to feel a common tie to their area ..." (US AID 1977). The peoples 
of the Southern Region were also obliged by similar policies and circumstances to 
develop a sense of common identity despite their ethnic heterogeneity. 
By the time the Banda government was superceded, three super-ethnic groups 
had crystalised; each of these occupied almost a distinct region from the other. 
These are the Tumbuka of the Northern Region; the Chewa of the Central Region; 
and the Yao, Lomwe, Mang'nja and Sena of the Southern Region. The politics of 
the referendum and the multi-party elections brought to the fore such deep seated 
regional consciousness. 
The Regional Factor in the Election 
Perhaps the most tangible impact of the resolve of the people of Malawi and the 
international community was felt in the results of the June 14, 1993 referendum. 
Some 63% of the voters voted for the creation of a multi-party system (Dzimbiri 
1994). Turnout was very high particularly in urban areas where people had no 
qualms about defying the government. Even where the control of the MCP and its 
para-military Young Pioneers was still relatively tight, people were less prepared 
than in the past to obey the chiefs and elders, who tried to influence how the people 
should vote. The results of the referendum, showed some disturbing signs. Surely 
the results were a clear victory for mutli-party system of government, with 63 
percent of the voters preferring a change of the system, and 37 percent voting for 
a single party state. But more especially the referendum vote also went along 
regional lines. The North and the South voted overwhelmingly for a change in the 
political system. Of the 444,196 who voted in the Northern Region, 392,569 or 84.4 
percent voted for a multi-party system; in the most populous Southern Region, the 
figure was 1,201,195 out of 1,438,371, or about 83.5 percent in favor of a multiparty 
system (Chirwa 1994). The Central Region voted overwhelmingly for the 
continuation of the status quo with 832,413 out of 1,270,881, or 65.5 percent in 
favor of a single-party state. Some districts in the Northern and Southern Regions 
produced majorities of more than ninety-five percent for multi-party democracy. 
Blantyre the most populous city in the country voted ninety percent in favour of 
change. It was only in the Central Region, home of Dr. Banda and some of his more 
powerful ministers such as Mr. John Tembo, that the majority voted for the single
Regional Polarisation in Voting Pattern: Malawi's 1994 Elections 157 
party system of government. One area, Dowa in the Central Region, voted ninetyfive 
percent in favor of one-party rule. 
The presidential and parliamentary elections which were held in 1994 replicated 
the results of the referendum. The results of the presidential elections are summarized 
in Table 1 and Figure 2 and those of the parliamentary elections are in Table 
2 and Figure 3. Four candidates from four parties contested the presidential 
elections, namely, the incumbent President Banda of the Malawi Congress Party 
(MCP), Muluzi of the United Democratic Front (UDF); Chakufa Chihana of the 
Alliance for Democracy and Kamlepo Kalua of the Malawi Democratic Party 
(MDP). A total of eight parties (including the four listed above) contested the 
parliamentary elections. 
NORTH 
CNhww WORD («T. 
SOUTH 
Chlhan* AFOHD | W h 
Mukjzi UOF (ra.0%)' 
CENTER 
CN»OT* APOAD ( 7 *(I)-, r-K^u* MDf <fiA%) 
UDF IZTM%)~i88B8SS3S8&m 
nda MCP (MJ%; 
nda MCP ( t M H ) 
Figure 2: Malawi: 1994 Presidential Election Results by Region. 
Source: Author, data from Malawi Government, 1994. The Malawi Government 
Gazette Volume XXXI No. 40, 24 June 1994, pp. 267-282. 
In the Northern Region, Chihana of AFORD emerged as the winner taking 88 
percent of the votes cast, followed by Dr. Banda with 7.3 percent of the votes, and 
Muluzi who secured only 4.5 percent of the votes. In the Central Region, Banda 
surprisingly received only 64.3 percent of the votes. He had expected to do much 
better than this; but the assassination of Ministers Dick Matenje, Aaron Gadama, 
Twaibu Sangala and member of parliament, David Chiwanga in 1983 were still 
very fresh in the minds of the voters, particularly in the home districts of the 
assassinated ministers, namely, Ntcheu, Kasungu and Dedza districts (Malawi 
1994). Muluzi of the UDF garnered a respectable 27.8 percent of the votes in the 
Central Region and Chihana matched Banda's 7.3 percent of the Northern votes by 
•PL 
NATIONAL 
r-Kahw HDP (0J%) 
ibmnm APORD <1SJ%)-i, _^
158 Ezekiel Kalipeni 
90 
80 
70 
2 60- 
20- --1 
:*t ±± 
ih 
33 
10- 
0- 
1994 PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION RESULTS 
BY REGION IN MALAWI 
MCP AIIOttMKi 
1 ^ 1 NORTH ^ | CENTER ^ ^ SOUTH F H NATIONAL 
Figure 3: Malawi: 1994 Parliamentary Election Results by Region 
Source: Source: Author, data from Malawi Government, 1994. The Malawi 
Government Gazette Volume XXXI No.40.24June 1994, pp. 267-282. 
grabbing 7.5 percent of the votes cast in the Central Region. In the Southern Region 
Muluzi emerged as the winner with 78 percent of the votes compared to Dr. 
Banda's 16 percent of the votes and Chihana's 5 percent of the votes. Kamlepo 
Kalua of the MDP did poorly in all three regions with 0.4 percent in the North, 0.5 
percent in the Central and 0.6 percent in the South. 
Although Muluzi took the prize from Dr. Banda. given the intensity of 
resentment against Dr. Banda and the Malawi Congress Party throughout the 
country, the votes at the national level were not humiliating for Dr. Banda. While 
Muluzi obtained 47.2 percent of the total vote, Dr. Banda received 33.5 percent 
with Chakufa Chihana coming a distant third with 18 percent of the vote, and 
Kamlepo Kalua polling an insignificant 0.3 percent (Figure 2). The parliamentary 
elections as shown in Table 2 and Figure 3 followed more or less the same regional 
pattern as the presidential elections. As Chirwa (1994) notes, out of the 177 seats 
in parliament, AFORD won 36 seats, almost all of them from the North and only 
three from border constituencies in the Central Region; the MCP won 56 seats, 51 
of them from the Central Region and 5 from the Southern Region; UDF won a total 
of 85 seats — 12 seats in the Central Region and 73 in the Southern Region. 
h, yhUDF 
J 
PERCENT ( 
• 
PP 
•I
1 I 
AFORD 
NAME OF POLITICAL PARTY
Table 1. Malawi: 1994 Presidential Genera Elections Results by Region 
Name of Candidate 
& Political Party 
Center 
Votes 
North 
Votes 
Banda MCP 33,650 743,739 
Muluzi UDF 20,837 321,581 
Chihana AFORD 86,766 404,837 
Kalua MDP 1,754 5,161 
Valid Votes 1,156,539 461,078 
Null and Void 6,341 28,977 
Total Votes Cast 1,185,516 467,419 
Total Registered 1,461,367 545,195 
Source: Malawi Government, 1994. The Malawi Government Gazette Volume XXXI No. 40,24th June 1994, pp. 267-282. 
National 
Votes 
South 
Votes 
966,353 218,964 
1,404,754 1,062,336 
562,862 71,259 
15,624 8,709 
2,978,885 1,361,268 
61,780 26,462 
3,040,665 1,387,730 
3,775,256 1,768,694 
Center 
% of Votes 
North 
% of Votes 
64.31 7.30 
27.81 4.52 
7.50 87.80 
0.45 0.38 
97.56 98.64 
2.44 1.36 
81.12 85.73 
38.71 14.44 
South 
5" 
National 
% of Votes % of Votes 
33.45 16.09 
47.16 78.04 
18.00 5.23 
0.32 0.64 2s 
97.97 98.09 
2.03 1.91 I 80.54 78.46 
100.00 46.85
Table 2. Malawi: 1994 Parliamentary General Elections Results by Region 
Name of Political 
Party 
MCP 
UDF 
AFORD 
All Others 
Valid Votes 
Null and Void 
Total Votes Cast 
Total Registered 1 
Source: Malawi Government, 1994. The Malawi Government Gazette Volume XXXI No. 40,24th June 1994, pp. 267-282. 
South 
Votes 
Center 
Votes 
North 
Votes 
732,824 225,932 37,291 
315,143 24,039 1,036,696 
82,132 384,618 96,667 
7,868 6,850 13,552 
1,372,847 1,137,967 452,798 
30,506 33,942 6,758 
1,406,771 1,168,473 459,556 
1,768,694 1,461,367 545,195 
National 
Votes 
North 
% of Votes 
8.24 996,047 
5.31 1,375,878 
84.94 563,417 
1.51 28,270 
98.53 2,963,612 
1.47 71,188 
84.29 3,034,800 
14.44 3,775,256 
Center National South 
% of Votes % of Votes % of Votes 
33.61 16.46 64.4 
46.43 75.51 27.69 
19.01 7.04 7.22 
0.95 0.99 0.69 
97.65 97.59 97.39 
2.35 2.41 2.61 
80.39 79.54 79.96 
38.71 100.00 46.85
Regional Polarisation in Voting Pattern: Malawi's 1994 Elections 161 
Ethnicity or Regionalism 
When the district level votes shown in Table 3 is mapped and a one-way analysis 
of variance conducted, the results yield some interesting patterns in as far as 
regional polarization is concerned. Figure 4 shows a choropleth map of each 
candidate's votes by district grouped into 4 categories as shown in the legend. Note 
Figure 4: Malawi: 1994 Presidential General Elections Results by District and 
Region 
Source: Author, data from Malawi Government, 1994. The Malawi Government 
Gazette Volume XXXI No. 40, 24th June 1994, pp. 267-282. 
that due to the insigni ficant nature of the votes garnered by Kamlempo Kalua a map 
for him is not included. Essentially the votes for each candidate were ranked in 
ascending order and divided into four groups with the first group containing the 6 
districts in which the candidate did extremely poorly; the second category contains 
the next 6 districts in which the candidate did moderately well; and so on. For each 
candidate there is a clustering of districts in which each one of them excelled. For 
example, Muluzi did extremely well in Mangochi, Ntcheu, Machinga, Chiradzulu, 
Zomba and Blantyre. One characteristic of these districts is the large proportion of 
the Yao people, Muluzi's ethnic group. He also had a reasonably good showing in 
other districts of the Southern and Central Region but did poorly in the Northern 
Districts. 
The second map shows the spatial patterning of the votes gained by Dr. Banda 
and his Malawi Congress Party. He did extremely well in the Chewa stronghold
162 Ezekiel Kalipeni 
cluster in the Districts of Mchinji, Kasungu, L.longwe, Dowa, Dedza and Ntchisi. 
He also did reasonably well in Nsanje, Ch.kwawa and Mwanza districts in the 
Southern Region. These districts contain large numbers of the Mang'anja group 
that speak a similar language to Chichewa called Nyanja and can easily associate 
with Dr Banda's origin in terms of culture. Dr. Banda's good showing in Nsanje 
can be explained by the fact that this is the home district of the MCP v.ce president, 
Mr Gwanda Chakuamba. In contrast, Chihana took all of the Northern districts 
with a reasonably good showing in Lilongwe, Blantyre and other parts of the 
Southern Region. 
When a one-way analysis of variance is conducted for each candidate with 
Region as the class variable and the data in Table 3 is examined in greater detail, 
it becomes very clear that AFORD's popular base is the narrowest in terms of the 
regional distribution of its electoral support while the MCP and UDF can lay claim 
to a semblance of being national political parties. In the one-way analysis of 
variance (Table 4), the mean of the votes garnered by each candidate in each region 
by district is computed. For example, Dr. Banda got, on a district average, 5.9 
percent in the North, 47.12 percent in the Central and 15.57 in the South. The 
question is whether the differences between the mean for each of the 3 presidential 
candidates are statistically significant. The F ratios and the associated probability 
values in Table 4 indicate that all the three major parties are regionally polarized 
but that the levels of polarization are significantly different from each other. For 
example, the F ratio for Chihana's vote is a massive 720.58 while Banda's is only 
26.24, and Muluzi 32.84. Although all three are statistically significant at the 5 
percent level of significance, the F ratios imply that UDF and MCP (particularly 
MCP) are well represented throughout the other regions, which is not the case with 
AFORD. We also computed the F statistic for Kamlepo Kalua and found that, 
although he gained insignificant results, these are nationally representative. The F 
ratio was 2.72 and the associated probability value was 0.0892 indicating that on 
average he scored the same percentage of the votes cast in the Northern, the Central 
and Southern Regions. In other words, the MDP showed no strong regional 
identification, and can be considered a broad-based national political party; but it 
is now too weak to make any significant political impact, especially in elections. 
Prospects for 'Nationalisation' 
In spite of these historically determined political formations and voting patterns 
recent developments suggest the possibility of changes towards the emergence of 
political parties with a more national support base and appeal, and consequently 
less regionally determined voting behaviour. Already the MCP appears to be 
penetrating the North. In a recent parliamentary by-election in a Mzimba district 
constituency, Banda's MCP won the contested seat. Indeed when one examines the 
presidential votes at the constituency level, Chihana performed best in areas where
Table 3: Malawi: 1994 Presidential General Elections Results by District and Region 
District Null and 
oid votes 
Number 
Voting 
Registered 
Voters 
NORTH 
Chilipa 
Kanm}.'u 
M/imba 
NkhalaBay 
Rumphi 
6,341 
528 
1,470 
2,833 
932 
578 
467,419 
45,961 
71,510 
236,948 
60.042 
53.958 
545,195 
53.462 
81,501 
272.908 
72.051 
62,273 
CENTRAL 
Ded/a 
Dowa 
Kasungu 
Lilongwe 
Mchinji 
Nkhoukou 
Ntcheu 
Nlchisi 
Salimu 
28,977 
4.732 
3,037 
2.947 
8,159 
2,242 
1,737 
2.485 
1,566 
2,072 
.461,367 
182.812 
148.090 
180,462 
457.595 
124.806 
87,841 
129,918 
56,693 
92,950 
1,185,516 
135.302 
121.262 
146.732 
391.566 
99,245 
74.455 
99.474 
45,502 
71,978 
1.768.694 1.387.730 
221.367 
92,019 
69,129 
218.160 
207,710 
170,594 
39,245 
58,043 
134,748 
176,711 
267,599 
121,315 
98.812 
258,699 
256,162 
257,006 
49,192 
71,305 
174.357 
214.253 
SOUTH 
Blamyre 
Chikwawa 
Chirad/ulu 
Machinga 
Mangochi 
Mulanje 
Mwanza 
Nsanje 
Thyolo 
Zomba 
3,041,661 NATIONAL 
26,462 
3,212 
2,197 
1,337 
4,184
0 
5,733 
1,255 
1,968 
3,441 
3,135 
61,780 3,772,062 
Source: Malawi Government, 1994. The Malawi Government Gazette Volume XXXI No. 40, 24th June 1994, pp. 267-282. 
Voles for 
Muluzi 
Votes for 
Chihana 
Total valid 
Voles 
404,837 
40,098 
64,121 
202,865 
50.053 
47.700 
20,837 
828 
2,023 
10.487 
4,993 
2.506 
461,078 
45,433 
70,040 
233.115 
59,110 
53,380 
1.156,539 
130.570 
118,252 
143,785 
383,407 
97,003 
72,7)8 
96,989 
43,936 
69,906 
86,766 
2,980 
4,344 
27,186 
29,856 
3,156 
11,056 
3,543 
1,516 
3,039 
321,581 
34,307 
17.779 
15.126 
77,509 
25.983 
27.526 
69,801 
13,561 
33,366 
71,259 
17,144 
3,019 
1.045 
3,244 
6.871 
19.495 
1,747 
1,607 
10,060 
7,117 
1,062,336 
171,088 
50,981 
60.372 
195,082 
184.230 
109,975 
26,232 
23,891 
94,459 
152,649 
1,404,754 
1,361,268 
218,155 
89,822 
67,792 
213,980 
207,710 
164,861 
37,990 
56,075 
131,307 
173.576 
2,978,912 562,862 
Voter 
Turnout % 
Votes for 
Kalua 
Votes for 
Banda 
33,650 
4,351 
3,647 
18,999 
3,672 
2,981 
85.73 
85.97 
87.74 
86.82 
83.33 
86.65 
1,754 
156 
249 
764 
392 
193 
81.12 
74.01 
81.88 
81.31 
5,161 
503 
834 
601 
1,303 
412 
269 
588 
222 
429 
743,739 
93,488 
95,178 
94,249 
274,739 
67,452 
33,867 
23.057 
28,637 
33,072 
85.57 
79.52 
84.76 
76.57 
80.26 
77.44 
218.964 
28.682 
34,615 
6,097 
14,835 
15,571 
34,347 
9,550 
29.658 
26,095 
19,514 
8,709 
1,241 
1,207 
278 
819 
1,038 
1,044 
461 
919 
693 
1,009 
15,624 996,353 
78.46 
82.72 
75.85 
69.96 
84.33 
81.09 
66.38 
79.78 
81.40 
77.28 
82.48 
80.54 
Votes Tor 
Kalua ft 
Votes for 
Banda % 
Votes for 
Chihana % 
Votes for 
Muluzi % 
0.38 
0.34 
0.35 
0.33 
066 
0.36 
7.30 
9,58 
5.21 
8.15 
621 
5,58 
87.80 
88.26 
91.55 
87.02 
84.68 
89.36 
4.52 
1.82 
2.89 
4.50 
8.45 
4.69 
0.45 
0 39 
0.71 
0.42 
0.34 
0.42 
0,37 
64.31 
71.60 
80.49 
65.55 
71.66 
69.54 
46.57 
23.77 
65.18 
47.31 
7,50 
2.28 
3.67 
18.91 
7.79 
3.25 
15.20 
3.65 
3.45 
4.35 
27.81 
26.27 
15.03 
10.52 
20.22 
26.79 
37.85 
71.97 
30.87 
47.73 
0 61 
0,51 
0.61 
064 
0.57 
1.34 
0.41 
0,38 
0.50 
0.63 
1.21 
1.64 
0,53 
0,58 
1609 
13.15 
38.54 
899 
6.93 
7.50 
20.83 
25.14 
52.89 
19.87 
11.24 
78.04 
78.42 
56.76 
89.05 
91.17 
88.70 
66.71 
69.05 
42.61 
71.94 
87.94 
5.23 
7.86 
3.36 
1.54 
1.52 
3.31 
11.83 
4.60 
2.87 
7.66 
4.10 
18.89 0,52 33.45 47 16
164 Ezekiel Kalipeni 
Table 4: One-Way Analysis of Variance for the Presidential Vote 
Region Candidate No. of 
Districts 
Muluzi 
(UDF) 
5
9 
10 
North 
Central 
South 
North 
Central 
South 
5
9 
10 
Banda 
(MCP) 
5
9 
10 
North 
Central 
South 
Chihana 
(Aford) 
North 
Central 
South 
5
9 
10 
Kalua 
(MNDP) 
Source: Author, data from Malawi Government, 1994. The Malawi Government Gazette 
Volume XXXI No. 40, 24th June 1994, pp. 267-282. 
the Presbytarian Church was very strong and did poorly in Ngoni strongholds, for 
one reason or another. The two districts in the Northern Region that Banda got the 
most votes from are mainly Mzimba and Karonga areas. This shows that even in 
the Northern Region there are internal cleavages which could be easily exploited 
by the two major political parties, MCP and UDF, to advantage. 
Other developments since the 1996 elections also confirm the possibility that 
the major political parties could capture the Northern Regions to make them more 
national organisations. The imperative to penetrate the Northern Region has come 
from the weakness of Chihana's AFORD which has exposed the Northern Region, 
his principal political base, as ajuicy political prize to be won by the major political 
parties. Indeed the AFORD has moved from one alliance to another, unable to 
bargain for a secure political position. It first went into uneasy alliance with MCP 
and then the UDF, what observers have called political trolloping. When President 
Bakili Muluzi initially refused to form a government of national unity and, with the 
exception of the vice presidency, offered most important cabinet positions in his 
government to southerners, AFORD declined the three junior ministries which 
were offered. Rather than accepting ajunior position in a partnership with the UDF, 
the AFORD went into the most improbable alliance with MCP, a pol itical party that 
the AFORD leadership had previously nicknamed the "party of death". For a while 
the opposition boasted a total of 91 seats in parliament versus the ruling UDF's 86 
seats. When the public response from his northern base was hostile, and fearing a 
massive desertion by AFORD supporters, the AFORD leadership switched part- 
Standard 
Deviation 
Mean % of 
votes by 
204 
13.92 
14.25 
1.56 
14.28 
11.57 
3.77 
24.54 
56.94 
5.89 
47.12 
15.57 
74.82 
5.55 
3.64 
3.42 
4.92 
2.22 
0.34 
0.38 
0.60 
0.11 
0.10 
0.35 
Prob. 
value 
F 
Statistic 
Max. 1c 
vote 
Min. % 
vote 
0.0001 32.84 
26.24 0.0001 
6.93 
53.73 
75.41 
8.13 
64.27 
41.59 
1.55 
8.38 
33.51 
4.47 
17.75 
5.73 
0.0001 720.58 69.46 
1.63 
1 06 
78.68 
15 06 
7.58 
0.0892 2.72 0.28 
0.28 
0.28 
0.54 
0.56 
1.29
Regional Ft ani uiuon ill Voting Pattern: Malawi's 1994 Elections 165 
ners and now wanted to join the UDF government under the same terms they had 
previously rejected. Significantly, the collapse of the UDF/AFORD alliance 
ushered in a veritable process of disintegration of the AFORD leadership.' At least, 
the successful revolt of a section of the AFORD leadership is indicative of the ease 
with which the UDF, for example, could penetrate the Northern Region and break 
the AFORD's current electoral monopoly by exploiting the loyalty of the AFORD 
defectors. 
Conclusion 
The 1994 referendum vote and the presidential and parliamentary multi-party 
election results reveal the regional polarization of electoral support in Malawi. 
Regionally based super-ethnic identities rather than ethnic identities perse appear 
to be the principal factor shaping voting patterns in the context of multi-party 
politics. As Werbner (1993) notes regarding the Botswana democratic experience, 
elites have historically secured wealth through their access to political power, 
which allows them to retribalize and neopatrimonize the political landscape within 
self-serving political framweworks. This appears to be happening in Malawi 
[Chirwa 1994] where elite competition for political power is aimed at securing 
access to state controlled scarce resources which would enable them to consolidate 
their political power base through political patronage. In the process new identities 
are being constructed: the old traditional structure of tribe has been transformed 
into a spatial unit among which regional identities are the most salient (Grundy 
1985; Werbner 1993; Bratton and van de Walle 1994). The prospect for political 
stability in Malawi will depend decisively on how claims arising from such 
regional identities are, on one hand carefully balanced against one another; and on 
the other hand knitted into a functional harmony in order to deepen the growth of 
a stable Malawian national identity. 
Notes 
* Assistant Professor of Geography, University of IllinoisatUrbana-Champaign, 
USA. 
1. A number of AFORD ministers refused to resign from the Muluzi government 
faollowing the collapse of the UDF/AFORD alliance. 
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