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I1 1 _ ... . .. ..1 lo. a .. .... . . a 1 1. . 1......1.... 5&6... ...-Jag 1 . 1. o 1 . . . . 1” 1. .1 . . 1.. \3 . . v u... _ . 1K1.£ .. . . ,. _ .. . b... ... ..., 1 .1 1.11... 1. fuzz. e. $4....r116tz3 ........._....“has...) .1 .........r8_11..n.....11. .1.......u1......._... .1193... ....r. 1. . :v......_:...1 1.11........r1.1u. ..A.¢..:~.....1w..«s.. 4. ....a. . ‘u. . 1 C. 1 .I . . . 11L. . O. . 1. . . . I . _ . . 1 THESIS FWJWJ‘ LIBRARY 1'. ' ,, hacks-mu Sims \_1 3,} U‘iix’czsxt3' I u 3 59‘4”" ‘~' " «P1 010* ; -~Q'-. alumna av “ale 5 SOIS' {; L7 00K BINDEHY' Ummv amoens ABSTRACT PHOSPHORUS RESOURCES, UTILIZATION, AND RELATED ENERGY EXPENDITURES By Robert Kirk Johnson, Sr. Phosphate rock is the raw material for numerous indus- trial and agricultural applications. Reserves are being depleted steadily by increasing demand from a growing population. Reuse of phosphorus in wastewater could post- pone depletion although related energy requirements are significantly higher. Part I includes a cursory review of the biological significance of phosphorus and the geological characteristics of mineral rock phosphate deposits. Current data on re- serves, production, consumption and market characteristics have been compiled for the world and the United States. Projections of consumption through the year 2000 were made and schedules of a range of depletion rates have been formu- lated. Rhosphorus in wastewater has been identified by source and potential quantities available for reuse calculated. Part II outlines energy expenditures of two alternative .methods of phosphorus application. Energy requirements for fertilizer phosphates have been evaluated from the time of extraction through refinement, transport and application to the soil. Similarly, energy expenditures resulting from the use of municipal sewageeffluent have been traced through collection, distribution and application to crops. Robert Kirk Johnson, Sr. It is concluded that application of effluent for the purpose of plant nutrition and prolonging resource life is not economically feasible at this time, within the framework of this analysis. The advent of alternative power sources, possibly nuclear, could make reuse schemes more favorable. Additionally, the relative importance given non-economic considerations, as abatement of environmental degradation and effective planning of resource exploitation, could influence evaluation of proposed recycling. PHOSPHORUS RESOURCES, UTILIZATION, AND RELATED ENERGY EXPENDITURES By Robert Kirk Johnson, Sr. A THESIS Submitted to Michigan State University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE Department of Resource Development 1974 TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF FIGURES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . LIST OF TABLES . . . . . . . . . . INTRODUCTION . PART I. l. PHOSPHORUS RESOURCES Biology and the phosphorus cycle 1.1 Biological significance . . . . 1.2 Phosphorus cycle . . . . . . . . Geology of phosphate rock . 2.1 Apatite deposits of igneous origin . . . . . 2. 2 Guano and related deposits 2. 3 Sedimentary phosphorite and weathering derivatives Phosphorus rock reserves . 3.1 World reserves . . 3. 2 United States reserves Phosphate rock production and con— sumption . . . . . . . . . . . . . U.l World production and consumption 4.2 United States production . “.3 United States consumption . . Consumptive patterns and future demand for phosphorus . . . . . . . . . . 5.1 World population trends and agricultural production . . . 5. 2 World consumption and future demand . . . 5.3 United States consumption and. future demand . . . . . . ii Page- iv vi CDO\U'1U'I KOO) 10 l2 12 l” 20 20 25 29 37 37 A0 A8 Table of Contents (con't.) PART II. 1:. Depletion of phosphate reserves 6.1 World reserves . 6. 2 United States reserves 6. 3 Contingencies Phosphorus reuse ENERGY EXPENDITURES Introduction Fertilizer manufacture . 2.1 Phosphate rock mining 2.2 Phosphoric acid manufacture 2.3 Triple superphosphate manu— facture . . 2.” Transportation and application 2.5 Summary . . . . . . . Wastewater reuse Reuse systems Conveyance systems Land application Collection systems . 3. 5 Summary WWWUO EWMI—J Summary and conclusions . LIST OF REFERENCES iii Page 5A 5A 58 66 75 79 79 86 88 9O 91 95 95 96 99 101 101 10“ 108 Figure 10 ll 12 13 14 LIST OF FIGURES The phosphorus cycle Major U. S. phosphate rock reserves World and U. S. phosphate rock produc- tion 0 O O O O O O O O O O O O O O 0 World phosphate rock and fertilizer production, consumption and trade, 197l o o o o c o o o o o o o o 0 United States phosphate rock produc- tion . . . . . . . . . . . . . Flow of phosphatic materials in the U. S. phosphorus industry . Distribution of phosphatic materials in the United States . . . . . . . World phosphate consumption, 1950-1970, projected consumption to 2000 . . . . United States phosphate consumption, 1950- -l970, projected consumption to 2000 . . . . . . . . Projected rates of growth of world phosphate consumption . . . . . Schedule of depletion, world phosphate rock reserves . . . . . . . . . . . . Projected rates of growth of United States phosphate consumption . . . Schedule of depletion, United States phosphate rock reserves . . . . . . . Relative quantities of high, medium, and low grade phosphate rock produced in the United States . . . . . . . iv Page 15 22 23 26 28 31 AA 50 56 57 59 60 6A List of Figures (con't.) Figure Page 15 Typical section of the Phosphoria Formation in southeastern Idaho . . . 80 16 Section of inclined winze, Arickeree Phosphate Mine, Rich County, Utah . . 83 17 Flow of wastewater in reuse systems 97 LIST OF TABLES Table Page 1 World phosphate rock reserves and 1970 production . . . . . . . . . . . . l3 2 United States phosphate rock reserves and 1970 production . . . . . . . . . l6 3 Phosphatic fertilizers . . . . . . . . 33 4 Per capita daily food supply, 1960 and 2000 . . . . . . . . . . . 38 5 World population and phosphate fertili- zer consumption, 1970 and predictions for the year 2000 . . . . . . . . . . 41 6 Distribution of phosphorus in regional markets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . M7 7 Predicted United States demand for phosphorus in the year 2000 . . . . . 52 8 Sources of phosphorus entering U. S. surface waters . . . . . . . . 67 9 Average effluent characteristics of various treatment facilities . . . . . 71 10 Energy requirements of phosphate rock mining operations . . . . . . . . . . 82 11 Energy consumption per metric ton of phosphoric acid produced . . . . . . . 89 12 Movement of raw and finished fertilizer materials and related energy consump- tion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92 13 Energy consumed by triple superphos- phate manufacture, transport and application . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93 14 Examples of alternative effluent conveyance systems and related energy consumption . . . . . . . . . . 98 vi‘ List of Tables (con't.) Table Page 15 Energy consumption of selected irrigation equipment . . . . . . . . . 100 16 Components of a theoretical wastewater project for Clinton, Iowa and related energy consumption . . . . . . . . . . 103 vii INTRODUCTION Phosphorus is one of the most important elements be— cause of its irreplaceable function in biological processes and its relative scarcity in the biosphere. Phosphorus from large localized deposits is extracted and utilized in a myriad of industrial and agricultural processes. Man's careless pattern of use disperses phosphorus in the form of wastewater to surface waters, effectively rendering it to unavailable storage. The source of commercial phosphorus, phosphate rock, is diminishing at an undetermined rate. The most liberal estimates of the life of this resource place the date of depletion at several hundreds of years. This time period represents a very small segment of the natural cycle required for the formation of deposits the type of which are now being exploited. It has been suggested that the reuse of phosphorus in waste could postpone depletion of reserves hundreds of years. One of the more popular schemes for reuse of the element includes the application of sewage treatment plant effluent to agricultural land by a variety of methods. A potentially significant obstruction to land application techniques is the amount of energy required for transmission of the liquid waste to the agricultural site from the treatment facility. The current status of fossil fuels in the United States and the 1 2 world and consequent higher energy costs will make power requirements an increasingly larger percentage of operational budgets. In consideration of increased concern for the longevity of this essential, finite mineral resource, combined with inadequate knowledge of energy expenditures associated with alternative management schemes, the following hypothesis is advanced. Energy inputs required by reuse projects apply— ing a unit of phosphorus contained in wastewater will be significantly higher than those requirements related to the application of an equivalent amount of phosphorus from manufactured fertilizers. The approached to be taken in addressing this hypothesis is a theoretical comparison made to determine the relative energy requirements of the two basic alternatives for appli— cation of phosphorus. The first alternative to be evaluated will be the application of manufactured fertilizer, triple superphosphate, derived from mineral rock, proceeded by a second method applying effluent from sewage treatment facil- ities. A centrally-located farm in midwestern United States will be used as the recipient of phosphorus. Discussion will include methods of fertilizer manufacture, modes of trans— portation and systems of wastewater utilization. Energy expenditures will be compiled for operational activities, excluding requirements of capital equipment and installation. Methodology Biological significance and cycling of phosphorus in the natural environment will be evaluated. The location, 3 quality and volume of world and United States reserves of rock phosphate will be compiled in detail from an extensive review of the literature. Phosphorus production and patterns of consumption shall be presented and projections to the year 2000 made. Schedules of reserve depletion will be formulated for the world and the United States. Energy requirements will be evaluated for alternative methods of phosphorus application. Fertilizer manufacture and use will be traced from representative mines in the western fields and Florida through respective refining pro- cesses, modes of transportation and application by farm machinery. Conveyance of effluent from a treatment facility to regional delivery points, distribution to the farm and application by alternate techniques will be described. Data for total energy expenditures shall be compiled at the con- clusion of respective sections. PART I. PHOSPHORUS RESOURCES l. BIOLOGY AND THE PHOSPHORUS CYCLE 1.1 Biological significance Phosphorus is a universal constituent of protoplasm required for growth and reproduction in all forms of plants and animals. Phosphorus shares its importance with other elements (nitrogen, oxygen, hydrogen, carbon and sulfur) but differs in availability. Other elements of major biological significance are readily obtained where phosphorus is bound in mineral rock. Phosphorus does not occur in elemental form. All phos- phorus is in the form of soluble and insoluble phosphates which are found in the soil, freshwater and in the seas. Soluble orthophosphates are present in relatively small amounts, the concentration effectively controlled by solubili- zation processes and cations as calcium, iron and aluminum which are capable of forming highly insoluble orthophosphates. In plants and animals phosphorus occurs as orthophosphates, polyphosphates, ortho- and polyphosphate esters, phospho- proteins and complex nucleotides.(l) Insoluble mineral phosphates constitute the majority of fixed phosphates in the soil and mineable rock deposits. These compounds can be biologically utilized over a number of years in many soil environs through activity of micro- organisms, leaching by carbonate waters and other means. Although the earth's supply of phosphorus remains constant, 5 6 the amount biologically available varys, at a rate which is a function of its turnover. 1.2 Phosphorus cycle The phosphorus cycle is illustrated in Figure l, which includes major natural and cultural pathways. The cyclical processes provide the basis for phosphorus concentration, biological utilization and eventual return to the sea. A portion of the earth's phosphorus is continually passing out of the mineral reserve into living substance and sub- sequently re-entering from living matter back to the mineral reserve. Solubilization and growth proceeded by deposition and decomposition provides the mechanism which assures an almost universal distribution of biologically available phosphorus over the surface of the earth. The natural cycle of phosphorus occurs over extremely long periods 0f time,requiring millions of years for geologic uplift of depositions to complete the cycle. The portion of the sequence influenced by man, however, has effectively created a subcycle with a flow of phosphorus to non-available storage greater than the flow from non- (3) available storage. . ><3Ih a «E ... X _ 20::qu + \ I. 3.3... ’ \ 823m £3: a. / k \ \ c285 . \ 032.000 2:30 ...—Ow A! I actozhuoz amazom _ \ v // _ 3:0980o \ co < 2cc§§ TIA "13.4.29. VAV inhoswcomk \ 0. can. . 39.0 Au! // , v.00: \ _ l I Efizmsamw \ I I l 50: 3820. \\ 2. GEOLOGY OF PHOSPHATE ROCK Phosphate rock is generally considered to be any rock that contains one or more phosphatic minerals of sufficient purity and quantity to permit its commercial use as a source (4) of phosphatic compounds or elemental phosphorus. There are three general types of phosphate deposits, classified accord- ing to the process responsible for their primary localization:(5) l. Apatite deposits of igneous origin 2. Guano and related deposits 3. Sedimentary phosphorites 2.1 Apatite deposits of igneous origin Apatite deposits occur primarily as intrusive masses or sheets commonly associated with alkalic igneous rock complexes. Deep weathering may yield a phosphate—rich residuum at the surface during decomposition of calcite, dolomite, and other more soluble minerals. Some of the largest igneous deposits are found in the Kola Peninsula of the Soviet Union, in Eastern Uganda and in the Republic of South Africa. Their content may reach 36% P205 with average grades between 20 and 25% P205.(6) The remainder of igneous apatite deposits are either less extensive or lower quality and consequently are of less economic importance. Low yield deposits are found in Vir- ginia, Norway, and southern Ontario. 8 9 2.2 Guano and related deposits Large accumulations of guano are formed primarily by seafowl with smaller quantitites deposited by bats and other cave-dwelling mammals and birds. Bat guano is most abundant in cave districts of temperate and tropical regions, however, accumulations are small with mining seldom greater than a (7) few thousand tons. Seafowl deposits are mainly confined to islands and coastal regions in low latitudes, the largest of which lie along the west coasts of lower California, South America, Africa, and islands near the equatorial currents. Many guano deposits were once several hundred thousand metric tons although most of the fossil accumulations are now de- pleted. Current production is very low, less than 0.01% of world phosphate rock production.(8) Fresh seafowl droppings contain about 22% nitrogen and 4% P Decomposition proceeds rapidly and the relative 205' phosphate content increases as the nitrogen and organic matter decreases. Modern guano contains about 10% P205 whereas leached guano contains 20-32% P205. In areas of rainfall the soluble phosphates are carried to underlying rocks where they may be deposited as cavity fillings or replacement. Through this process, phosphates from guano have accumulated over long periods of geologic time and formed significant deposits as those found on the island of Nauru in Oceania where original reserves of rock are estimated to have been 30 million metric tons of rock averaging about 39% F205 (3) 10 The mineralogy of phosphatized rock derived from guano depends on the composition of the host rock. Limestone as found in coral reefs results in apatite while silicate of volcanic origin yields aluminum or iron phosphates. 2.3 Sedimentary phosphorite and weathering derivatives Most of the world's phosphate production comes from marine phosphorites. The richest and largest of these form at low latitudes in areas of ocean upwelling, chiefly along the west coast of continents or in large Mediteranian seas along the equatorial side of the basin. Lesser but signif- icant concentrations form along the west sides of poleward- moving warm currents on the eastern coasts of continents. Rock assemblage in the cold—current environment is the product of deposition on a shoaling bottom, over which shoreward moving waters are progressively warmed. The thickest accumulations of phosphorite form in areas of geo- synclinal subsidence generally associated with carbonaceous shale. The phosphorite is typically carbonaceous and pelletal but nodules as well as skeletal material may be present in lesser quantities. Individual beds are generally a few meters thick and often many kilometers wide containing up to 30% P205. Thicker and richer deposits may occur locally but are highly lenti- cular. Phosphorites deposited from upwelling are found in the Phosphoria Formation in Idaho and adjacent states, extensive deposits in western and northern Africa, and in the Middle- East. 11 Phosphate deposits formed in warm-current environments along the eastern coasts of continents generally consist of phosphatic limestone or sandstone and are less extensive and lower in quality than those formed from cold currents. Depositions derived from warm—current activity are found in the Bone Valley Formation of central Florida. The distribu— tion of some deposits suggests estuarine deposition and may have resulted from processes of circulation and nutrient enrichment.(9) Secondary processes have played a prominent role in con— centrating the richest of the marine deposits. The highest grade beds in the Western Phosphoria Formation appear to have been extensively washed by marine currents and leached of carbonates and sulfides. Weathering in the cycle accounts for the formation of enriched residual and replacement deposits from phosphatic deposits not otherwise mineable. Tennessee "brown-rock" consists of present day residuum developed through decomposition of phosphatic limestone.(lo) 3. PHOSPHATE ROCK RESERVES 3.1 World reserves Phosphate rock occurs throughout the world and is mined extensively on every continent although three regions - the United States, the Soviet Union and North Africa — constitute over eight-tenths of the world's developed resources. These deposits have provided a dependable source of phosphate rock in past decades and will continue to supply foreseeable demand for the next few hundred years. Table 1 contains a compilation of the world's known and potential deposits of phosphate rock, equivalent quan- tities of P205 and 1970 regional production statistics. The North African region possesses the largest reserves while North America produces the largest volume of rock. European reserves are almost exclusively found in Northeastern Russia. Total known and potential reserves of the world are nearly 160 billion metric tons of rock or about 43 billion metric tons P205 equivalent at an average assay of 26.9% P205. Many deposits contain relatively insignificant amounts of phosphate rock. Recent discovery and exploitation of reserves, particularly in underdeveloped nations, has decreased dependency of smaller countries on major producers for raw phosphate materials. The three major producing regions have supplied the rest of the world with rock and phosphorus derivatives, specifically resource 12 313 TABLE 1 WORLD PHOSPHATE ROCK RESERVES AND 1970 PRODUCTION (million metric tons) RESERVES PRODUCTION (ref. 8) Avg. Percent of Percent Location Ref. Rock P205 Grade Total P205 Rock of Total WORLD 159,303 42,974 27.0 100.0 85.32 100.0 AFRICA 71,426 22,555 31.6 52.5 19.84 23.2 Algeria ' 6 2,791 831 30.0 Angola ' 11:14 111 39 35.0 Egypt, Arab Rep. 8, 11:11 745 223 30.0 Mauritania 11:4 4 1 25.0 Morocco 6 59,590 19,138 32.1 Rhodesia 12 34 3 8.1 Senegal 11:13 -' 45 14 30.0 South Africa, Rep. 11:12 363 22 6.0 Spanish Sahara 11:4 1,179 360 30.5 Tanganyika 12 9 2 20.0 Togo, Rep. 11:2 45 16 36.6 Tunisia 6 6,281 1,869 29.8 Uganda 11:7, 12 229 37 16.3 ASIA 8,134 2,027 24.9 4.7 5.76 6.8 China, P. Rep. 6 7,419 1,868 25.2 Christmas Island 1 :4 181 40 22.C India 8, 11:9 144 42 29.2 Israel 11:8 7 2 27.0 Japan 2 24 8 35.0 Jordan 2 5 1 27.0 Lebanon 11:1 5 1 25.0 Syrian Arab Rep. 11:3 168 45 27.0. Turkey 8 181 20 11.0 OCEANIA 2,127 408 19.2 0.9 2.63 3.1 Australia 8 1,887 323 17.1 Makatea Island 2 8 3 35.0+ Ocean & Nauru Island 2 232' 82 35.0+ EUROPE 26,570 5,487 20.7 - 12.8 20.92 24.5 France & Poland 2 358 90 25.0 U.S.S.R. ' 6 26,212 5,397 20.6 NORTH AMERICA ’ 49,499 12,033 24.3 28.0 35.29 41.4 Mexico 11 10 140 22 15.6 ' United States 6 49,359 12,011 24.3 SOUTH AMERICA 1,547 464 30.0 1.1 0.88 1.0 Brazil 11:6 120 22 18.3 Columbia 11:8' 5 1 20.0 Peru 11:3 1,422 441 31.0 l4 deficient Europe and Japan which employ intensive agricul- tural practices. 3.2 United States reserves Twenty-three states in the United States have reported phosphate rock deposits. Significant deposits are found in Florida, North Carolina, Tennessee, and the western mountain states (Idaho, Montana, Utah and Wyoming). The geographic locations of important commercial reserves are summarized in Figure 2. Current data on U. S. known and potential reserves and recent U. S. production statistics have been gathered in Table 2. Florida reserves Florida's major deposits of phosphate rock are modular or pelletal conformations found in the Bone Valley Formation, located in the west-central portion of the state. The forma- tion covers an area of about 6,700 square kilometers with the highest grade rock situated in the northern sector. A typical bed consists of a 6 meter thick overburden of quartz sand under which is a 2 meter leached zone containing 20-30% calcium-aluminum phosphate minerals. A 5 meter thick bed of matrix follows comprised of an unconsolidated mixture of one-third phosphate pellets, one—third sand and one-third clay and sand slimes. The pellets range in size from minute to 2.5 cm in diameter. The deposits are fairly continuous in both grade and thickness over large areas although abrupt variations may occur locally. Overburden ranging from 3 to 6 meters must 15 hoummv .AzaoHoHEmcoz one oa.coooaoaz pom Sufism ma.%c>ao&o2 .mo>momoh x009 epwndmoco .m .3 sends .m onswfim cozmpto. >622, ocom x09 Em: .... ._ .15”: , . _ \ 532523 _ . .. \ 02.8.... sec. . .. 62.20; \\ \\\ . 02.5. 9.6.8 . some new 2200 .. .2520: l6 oofieoam ca ooosaoca on mmuMum cumpmcz :H oopsaoca Any commences ca Umvsfloca Adv o.ooa :m.oa ma.mm o.ooa m.:m mHo.mH mmm.ms 0.0m omH.m Hofi.e ammmmm ZOHBODQOmm ouma Qz< mm>mmmmm xoom ma< Hence mHsEpom Show Lepmz & zmoomBHz m m BZMommm u o m Bzmommm mmmNHAHBmmm me and further to 50 billion in the 1960's.(23) Compilation of current data contained in Table 1 establishes a current estimate of phosphate rock at 159 billion metric tons representing about 43 billion metric tons P205. Phosphate rock has been regarded by many as a commodity with no end, in much the same manner other fund resources have been viewed and consequently mismanaged. Reports of (2) phosphates depict reserves as vast, of infinite duration, giving rise to no questions of depletion or problems,(38) and others employing similar adjectives. The time of depletion of phosphate reserves has been estimated to occur as rapidly as the year 2200,(39’ 40) and as far distant as (41) 1000 years. Reserves are more than adequate to satisfy short-run demand for the next 200 years. However, a fund resource is by definition finite and the escalating pressure on phosphate resources may make depletion an eventuality in a relatively short period of time. 54 55 The actual date reserves will be exhausted is dependent upon the volume of materials consumed. Assuming the fore- casts up to the year 2000 are credible, projections from that point have been made at various rates of growth for annual world consumption. Additional assumptions are re- quired prior to formulation of the estimates: 1. Cumulative consumption for the period 1970-2000 will be about 1,823 million metric tons P205, there- by reducing reserves to 41,147 million metric tons P O . 2 5 2. Total reserves have been increased 15% to offset future discoveries, based on past exploration and potential unknown reserves in undeveloped regions of the world. The base figure is thereby adjusted to 47,319 million metric tons P205 in 2000. 3. Annual consumption for the base year is estimated at 100 million metric tons P205 from projections in Figure 8. 4. Capacity of the industry to mine and refine rock is sufficient to satisfy demand. The combined result of the base data and assumptions is shown in Figure 10. The five curves plotted represent growth rates from zero to four percent per annum. Figure 11 contains curves representing depletion of world phosphate rock reserves corresponding to individual growth rates in Figure 10. At zero rate of growth from the year 2000, the maximum length of time until reserves are exhausted is about 505 years, or until about 2475. The minimum time, derived from the four percent rate of increase, is about 105 years, or 2075. Neither of these appear plausible although values within the range give a more realistic estimate, possibly 0.5 to 1.5%, placing the date somewhere in the latter half of the 22nd century. MILLION METRIC TONS no, ‘KNIOOOE “% .1 50.0004 . 3% 10,000: 1 5P”: 2% 1.000: 1 1% 5004 100 0% 2600 2150 2200 YEAR Figure 10. Projected rates of growth of world phos— phate consumption. BILLION METRIC TONS P,0, 57 50 404 30‘ 0% 20' 1% 10- 4 . 0 v n I w 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 Y E A R Figure 11. Schedule of depletion, world phosphate rock reserves. 58 6.2 United States reserves Patterns of consumption are forecast from the year 2000 for the United States in the same manner utilized for world resources. Similarly, fundamental assumptions are made prior to derivation of estimates: 1. Cumulative demand for the period will be 517 million metric tons, reducing reserves to 11,494 million metric tons P205. 2. Total reserves are increased 15% to offset future discoveries, adjusting the base figure to 13,218 million metric tons P205. 3. Annual consumption in the base year is estimated at 27 million metric tons P205 from projections in Figure 9. 4. The industry will be capable of supplying demand. Annual growth rates from zero to four percent are projected from base year 2000, shown in Figure 12. Figure 13 contains curves representing depletion of U. S. phosphate rock re- serves corresponding to the various growth rates in Figure 12. At the zero percent rate, reserves could be expected to endure for another 520 years to about 2490 while the four percent rate would deplete reserves by about 2075, 105 years hence. 6.3 Contingencies There are a number of issues surrounding phosphorus resources which confound smooth projection curves, both aggravating and enhancing the status of reserves. Phosphorus on the sea floor exists in the form of teeth, bones and nodules. Detrital material of this nature is remarkably common on the bottom, consisting of tricalcium phosphate contain- .(42) ing about 34% P205 Although they could not feasibly MILLION METRIC TONS P20, 59 10,0001- 4 x 3 x 5,000- . i 2 1,000- X I I 500‘ 1 X 1001 50 - 0 96 10 I T T 1 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 YEAR Figure 12. Projected rates of growth of United States phosphate consumption. BILLION unmc TONS 750, 15.01 12.5‘ gs ? N a 1 9' C) 1 2.5-I 4% 60 1% 2% 3% Figure 13. Schedule T t V 5 2160 2300 r YEAR of depletion, United States phosphate rock reserves. 61 be mined alone, they could be recovered as a byproduct from any deepnsea mining operation. Phosphorite nodules are com- prised of tricalcium fluorcarbonate phosphate which forms on sand, gravel and calcareous organic remains. The size varies from one millimeter up to one meter and generally consists of less than 30% P205. Sea floor deposits of phosphate occur in areas where detritus and other sediment is excluded, usually by isolation on tOp of shallow banks or at the seaward edge of continental shelves.(u3) Known deposits are found off Southern California, off Peru-Chile, off Southeastern United States and near the 1 Republic of South Africa. Estimates of teeth and bones are not available and only elementary guesses have been made concerning ocean—bed deposits, placing U. S. reserves at a potential one billion tons of rock. These data are not included in reserve estimates offered earlier due to in- sufficient information concerning location, grade and feasibility of extraction. Other factors exist which do not affect the volume of known reserves and are not included in the framework of projections made to the year 2200. Rather they influence the economics of mining and refining procedures. Florida has produced more than 80% of the United States' output of rock phosphate for domestic consumption and export markets for the entire history of the industry. This position of prominence was aided by proximity to low-cost bulk trans- portation via ocean vessels. Conversely, the Phosphoria Formation in the western states is approximately 1,050 62 kilometers inland from the nearest deep—water port. As the United States draws more heavily upon these reserves, inherent higher freight costs will be incurred. Florida mines have similarly benefitted from the geology of the region's formation. The ratio of overburden to matrix is a prime determinant in the economic feasibility of a given mine. The ratio of Florida's mines is low, about 1:1 or 1:1.5, allowing exclusive use of open—cut mining. Much of the Western Phosphoria Formation, however, is contained in rugged mountains with much folding and intense deformation. Future extraction will necessitate underground mining with (44) This factor should be a consequent increases in cost. salient point in evaluating future exploitation of phosphate resources in the United States as nearly one—half of U. S. reserves are found in western deposits and about 35% of total U. S. production will require underground mining. In addition to presence and accessibility of phosphates, the quality of rock produced is of significant importance. Mining in the United States has experienced an overall down- ward trend in the grade of rock extracted in the last 30 years. Figure 14 illustrates the ratio of grades of rock produced by each major center and the United States. The greatest percentage of high quality rock produced was in 1950 where the ratio of highzmediumzlow grade rock phos- phate (>34%, 28-34%, <34% P205, respectively), is about 5:4:1. The ratio derived from recent production is about 1:8:1, reflecting a progressively lower percentage of high quality material available. 63 Figure 14. Relative quantities of high, medium, and low grade phosphate rock pro- duced in the United States. (from U.S.D.I., Minerals Yearbook, 19718) Percent of Total Production WESTERN STATES TENNESSEE FLORIDA 100 TOTA L U. S. 65 Florida production typifies the condition of the indus- try. In the same time period, the ratio has progressed from about 5:520 in 1950 to 1:9:0 in 1971. The implications of the trend shown in Figure 14 are evident; less high grade rock is available for production, requiring greater amounts of all raw materials to furnish the same unit of finished phosphorus. 7. PHOSPHORUS REUSE A final consideration which may affect resources is recycling of phosphorus presently classified as waste. The potential impact of recycled phosphatic materials is far-reaching; reducing surface water degradation brought about by current methods of disposal, altering consumptive use patterns of finished products in agricultural application and influencing levels of production of phosphate rock and depletion of reserves. Natural and cultural pathways of the phosphorus cycle have been illustrated in Figure l. Man's influence is in effect a short curcuit or sub-cycle of the natural process. The natural cycle requires millions of years from the time of deposition of materials to geologic uplife, completing the process and resulting in available formations. Man's current pattern of use, however, has shortened the cycle by dispersing phosphorus in low concentrations to available bodies of water. Continued unwise use of the resource will result in reducing most of the world's supply of phosphorus to a "non-available" status where recovery would require very high energy expenditures.(u5) Natural and cultural sources of phosphorus entering U. S. surface waters are contained in Table 8. The principle cultural sources are domestic sewage and runoff. 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