‘‘‘‘‘ PLANNING TECHNIQUES RELATED TO URBAN GROWTH AND THEIR MUNICIPAL POLICY IMPLICATIONS WARREN KAHLE THESIS FOR THE DEGREE. OF MASTER OF URBAN PLANNING MICHIGAN STATE UNIVERSITY I. 9 6 6 LIBRARY Michigan State Umvcrsity THEbI: Q 7 .‘ivt a ) .o-q'r-a .b- .. ABSTRACT PLANNING TECHNIQUES RELATED TO URBAN GROWTH AND THEIR MUNICIPAL POLICY IMPLICATIONS by Warren Kahle The author hypothesizes that the promotion of urban growth is frequently accepted as an implicit community objec- tive by virtue of certain widely employed planning techniques, namely, growth forecasting as a foundation for developing plans. and cost-benefit analyses as tools for evaluation of community plans. Because such methods have become entrenched in the minds of many professional planners as the ”proper approach" to be taken in a democratic society, the advantages and disadvantages of continuous community growth are unlikely to be researched during the course of the planning program. Consequently, the community decisionémakers, by adopting plans prepared in this manner, may in fact be creating the blue- prints for qualitatively inferior cities and urban regions be- cause they are not made aware of the necessity to resolve fundamental questions related to growth itself. In short, cities of inhuman scale and massive problems may be the con— sequence of using mechanistic planning techniques. Somewhat typical examples of professional planning documents are reviewed and critiqued in terms of a conceptual framework which is developed at the beginning of the thesis. Warren Kahle The origin and ramifications of the growth-related methods which are used are explored and some suggestions are pre— sented for improving the quality of the planner's advisory service to the community. In brief, the most significant Ifindings are (1) that forecasts of economic and population growth should not be used as a basis for scaling plans, (2) Ithat the scope of planning research should be considerably broadened, and (3) that growth alternatives and ramifications should be clearly presented to the municipal decisionamakers ‘in order that policies related to growth itself may be ex- plicitly defined. PLANNING TECHNIQUES RELATED TO URBAN GROWTH.AND THEIR MUNICIPAL POLICY IMPLICATIONS By Warren Kahle A THESIS Submitted to Michigan State University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF URBAN PLANNING School of Urban Planning and Landscape Architecture 1966 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Without the encouragement and guidance of Professor Sanford S. Farness of the School of Urban Planning and Land- scape Architecture it is highly unlikely that this writer would have pursued a topic of this nature. It is quite likely, however, that a thesis would eventually have been written on the policy ramifications of planning methodology regarding urban growth . . . a recurring theme in Professor Farness's lectures and writings. Although it may not be readily apparent,many hours were devoted to exploring scholarly disciplines that are not customarily thought to be within the scope of urban planning. Because of the author's previously limited exposure to the concepts of such subject matter as epistemology, nuclear physics, crystallography, and human biological development, this research has been especially enlightening. Its greatest value, however, has been in establishing a clearer under- standing of Man's relationship to his natural and cultural environments. For this reorientation the writer is parti- oularly grateful. 11 TABLE OF CONTENTS AMOWLEmEII/I ENT S O O O O O O I O O O O O O O C O O O 0 Chapter I O INTRO DUCT I ON 0 O O O O O O O O O 0 O O O O O 0 II. THE MEANING OF GROWTH: AN OVERVIEW . . . . . . Introduction . . . . . Physical Reality . . . Inorganic systems . Organic systems . . Socio-cultural Systems . . . . On the Transfer of Concepts, Theories and Knowledge Between Kinds of Systems . . . . Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . III. A SAMPLING OF PROFESSIONAL TECHNIQUES AND ATTITUDES REGARDING URBAN GROWTH . . . . . . The Chicago Area Transportation Study . . . The Buffalo Master Plan . . . . . . . . . Comprehensive Planning Program, Waldo, Wisconsin . . . . . . . . Sun City, California, General Plan . . . . . The Fremont, California, Sketch Plan . . The Comprehensive City Plan of Port Arthur, Texas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . IV. PLANNING TECHNIQUES REGARDING GROWTH AND THEIR POLI CY IM PLI CATI CNS 0 C O C C C C C O O O C The Forecasting Approach . . . . . . . . . . Background. 0 O O 0 O O O O C O O O O O 0 Forecasting in business enterprise planning . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Forecasting in social science research . Implications and Shortcomings . . . . . . Socio—cultural phenomena are mecha- ni St 10 O O O O O O C O O O O O O I O O Bigness is a virtue . . . . . . . . . . 111 Page 11 #2 1+3 51 56 62 66 69 71 72 72 74 77 79 80 81 Community growth is an inappropriate topic for municipal policyamakers . The community and the environment will support the plan . . Statistical methods that are meaningful when applied at one level of abstrac- tion are equally meaningful at an- other level . . . Other Growth-Belated Planning Techniques Benefit-Cost Analyses . Community Attitude Surveys Summation . . . . . . . . V. TOWARD REVISED PLANNING METHODOLOGY Bationalities in Social Action Technical rationality . Economic rationality . Social rationality . . Legal rationality . . . Political rationality . Other forms of rationality Toward the Achievement of Balanced Thinking In Municipal Planning and Policy-Making . Suggestions For.A General Methodology . VI. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION . . SELECTED BIBLIOGRAPHY . . . . . . . iv Page 87 91 109 111 116 120 12“ CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION The overgrown city represents one of the most per- plexing and complicated problems of our time. It is char- acterized by its massive inhuman scale and it usually possesses a host of functional shortcomings. No attempt is made here to precisely define the urban population level that may be termed "overgrown." The term is loosely used to imply that an optimum population level may exist, beyond which the ad- vantages of urban concentration begin to be outweighed by the disadvantages. Further it is presumed that the trans- lation of well-defined community objectives into a workable plan will generally produce the optimum size and configura- tion in each particular situation. Unlike biological growth, which is a purposeful pheno— menon limited by homeostatic systems within an organism and directed toward a mature form that is capable of functional fulfillment, urban growth is largely an expression of economic objectives and apparently is limited only by its self-destruc- tion from an accumulation of environmental dysfunctions. On one hand, urban growth is frequently promoted by policy- makers (responding to the wishes of business and labor inter- ests) in an attempt to increase employment and create addi- tional revenue by expanding the tax base. On the other hand, additional growth may contribute to the intensification of a wide range of city problems, including traffic congestion; air and water pollution; shortage of educational, recrea— tional, and other public facilities: mental and physical ill- ness: crime; ethnic group conflict: inadequate fire and police services: burdened waste disposal systems: urban noise: strained municipal financial resources: and many others. Indeed, the malfunctions of modern-day cities provide a popu~ lar literary topic as exemplified by-such works as Leonard Duhl's The Urban Condition, Micthell Gordon's S ck Cities, Peter Blake's God's Own Jankyard, and Richard J. Whalen's perceptive article "New York: A City Destroying Itself,” which appeared in the September 196” issue of Fortune. In addition, increasing evidence is being accumulated through sociological and medical research which suggests that our modern-day metropolises may not provide suitable environ- ments for the best in human life. Much of the evidence is circumstantial, but there is reasonable certainty that massive populations and high population densities are related to ero- sion of opportunities for pursuing the "good life." Although they are briefly discussed herein, the pros and cons of growth itself, the concept of optimum community size, and growth control instruments available to municipal governments are not the principal topics of this research. It is the intent of this thesis to demonstrate that the cur- rent state of comprehensive planning (viewed in a United States cultural setting) is neither as comprehensive nor objective as it might be. The planner's approach to the question of urban growth is taken as a case in point. A pro-expansion philosophy, or urban growth bias, is readily apparent in American society. Richard L. Meier writes in A Communications Theogyrgf Urbangggowth that "re- storative measures seem to be brought into play when cer- tain . . . indices decline to critical points." Few re- storative measures, however, are operating on the growth side of the scale to return the socio-cultural system to a state of equilibrium and prevent undesirable growth rates and levels. In practice, the municipal legislature is the chief source of control and the urban planner plays a significant role as advisor to that body. It is the contention of this thesis that the planner and other municipal advisors have abdicated one of their principal responsibilities to the community and, concurrently, the dignity of their professions by failing to view the city in a socio-cultural perspective. This failure is most evi- dent in current planning methodology dealing with urban growth and its relation to the municipal decision-making framework. Stated more positively, urban growth itself must be presented to the policy-makers as a topic for discussion and conscious policy formation. The author contends that widely accepted forecasting techniques evade this critical step in democratic planning and policyamaking. Consequently, 4 the planner's approach to the subject of urban growth de- humanizes the planning process and perpetuates the expan- sionist philosophy without first appraising the consequences of his policy recommendations and bringing the results of his appraisal to the awareness of the decision-makers. Man is said to be the primary causal factor in shaping settlement patterns and defining urban problems. Why then do humans permit themselves to mass together as great urban agglomerations creating problems of tremendous magnitude, and yet, still continue to invite new growth? IDo the payoffs sufficiently offset the threats to physical, men- tal, and emotional wellabeing? Are we creating a more de- sirable and ecologically balanced environment? These are important questions that face municipal decisiondmakers in many rapidly urbanizing parts of the nation. They are, how- ever, questions that often appear to be overlooked. Hope- fully by virtue of his advisory position in municipal govern- ment, the planner can provide some answers to these questions. “This, however, will require a shift in his general conception I Iof the city; it must be understood as a socio-cultural sys- Item, not as a phenomenon beyond human control.//1 This thesis is intended to offer suggestions for re- perceiving urban growth, planning techniques related to ur- ban growth, and, in general, the planning process in a muni- cipal governmental setting. It is not expected to be a cure- all for the various "illnesses" of the growing city. It does not offer especially definitive solutions for procedural re- vision. The author believes, however, that it presents some exceptionally important topics that are worthy of re- thinking and debate. Because the emphasis is on urban planning techniques related to growth, the urban planner receives the brunt of the criticism. This criticism may not be properly placed in singling out the planner's role in the policy framework; un- questionably many other municipal staff members, policy- makers, and community leaders play equally apathetic roles. It is believed, however, that the planner holds a strategic advisory position in local government and therefore can be a strong factor in bringing about an awareness of the inter- related nature of various public decisions and actions. Logically it is of prime importance that the planner have a clear conception of the socio-cultural system and the impli- cations of his methodology. The thesis presentation first explores the meaning of growth to three fundamental kinds of systems: inorganic, or- ganic, and socio-cultural. Next, a half-dozen examples of current planning reports are reviewed and briefly critiqued using the framework developed in Chapter II. This is followed by an overview of the planner's role in municipal government, the policy implications of his techniques related to urban growth, and a discussion of the principal modes of thinking and acting. The latter material is used as a basis for sug- gesting a revised planning methodology for handling the ques- tion of urban growth. CHAPTER II THE MEANING OF GROWTH: AN OVERVIEW Introduction Imperative to a critique of any kind of phenomenon or activity is, obviously, the development of a workable conceptual background or criteria. Thus, an understanding of the meaning of growth is of fundamental importance as a basis for the subsequent criticism of selected planning agency reports. In common usage growth denotes increase in essen- tially any quantitative or qualitative state. Clifford Grebstein, Stanford University biology professor, notes in Encyclopgedia.§gitannica that . . . the term is applied very generally to very different phenomena: persons, animals, plants, cities, libraries, crystals and.knowfledge are said to grow; The common attribute displayed by all of these entities when they grow is increasing magnitude, denoted purely descrip- tively with no assumption that there is commonness in what is increasing or in how the increase occurs. As soon as one concerns oneself with what is grow— ing and how, growth becomes more difficult to define. What grows in.persons, libraries and knowledge clearly is not the same, and similarly how these grow is un- likely to be the same. So different is growth in these several connotations that it requires very different competences even to discuss them . . . . It [Ifi7 evident . . . that what is designated generally as growth is an aspect of diverse phenomena rather than a unitary pheno- menon in and of itself. Growth can be abstracted for analysis, but it c at - - l e— ments made about growth in one context ape equally applicable to others.1(Underlining added.) Grobstein's descriptive statement on the non-unitary nature of growth and his hint at the inapplicability of the term to diverse phenomena rather concisely set the stage for this thesis. Now, the matters that are of foremost impor- tance are the answers to the questions: ”What grows?" and ”How does it grow?" Considered adequate for the immediate purpose is a synoptic view of the meaning of growth in each of the three principle realms of scientific inquiry: the inorganic realm of inanimate matter, the organic realm or living organisms (which, with the inorganic realm, comprises all physical real- ity), and the socio-cultural realm of human societies. The unique subject matter of each of these realms or levels of organization has been recognized and described in the tradi- tional disciplines of physical, biological, and social science. Following a brief review of the distinctive charac- teristics of each field of inquiry is a discussion of the no- tion of growth. Except where more explicitly defined, the term system, used periodically on the following pages, may be understood as "any set of interrelated components."2 1Clifford Grobstein, "Growth," Encyclopaedia Bri- tannica,_x (1964), pp. 967-68. 2Alfred Kuhn, The Study of Society: AUnified Approach (Homewood, 111.: Richard D. Irwin, Inc. and the Dorsey Press, Inc., 1963), p. 38. Physical Reality The physical universe is composed of matter, an abstract concept applied to any or all conceivable physical units, living or non-living, regardless of size or complexity. Matter ranges from the world's minutest parts, "the spatial and temporal dimensions of which must be roughly indicated by the quantum of least possible action, or material change, discernible in nature," to larger units such as photons, atoms (with their mesons, positrons, and electrons), mole- cules, multi-molecular colloids and crystals, bacteria and viruses, and multi-oellular plants and animals.3 Two principal categories of phenomena occurring in physical reality-~organic and inorganic systems-~are widely recognized in scientific and philosophical literature. Life or vitality, a characteristic of organic (biological) sys- tems, is the primary attribute that allows us to distinguish between the two categories. Non-living'matter-energy systems and phenomena make up the inorganic (physioo-chemical) realm. Inorganic Systems General chgpgctepistics.--In spite of the static appearance of inorganic systems such as rocks and minerals, all material units are said to be in ceaseless motion, or, "in a dynamic interrelationship sustained by means of parallel synchronous changes.“I Inorganic objects undergo changes in 3Hugh Miller, Pro ress and Decline: The Grou in Evo- lution (Los Angeles: The Ward Ritchie Press, 1963), p. 257. nIbidc' pp. 252-53. their outward form as in (1) the building-up of rock through metamorphism, sedimentation, or solidification of molten magma, and (2) the breaking-down of rock formations through erosion processes. Objects may also undergo inner trans- formations, as in changing from solid to liquid to gaseous states. For centuries the chief objective of physical scientists has been to investigate the order of the universe and des- cribe how processes and events are related. Among the basic assumptions that spurred them toward their goal were the beliefs that the "motions and velocities of bodies [fierg7 determinate and determinable" and the whole could be deduced and understood "by rational analysis of the parts."5 From the early observation that the motion of planets was ”abso- lutely predictable" developed the "notion of a determinism of nature which became the model of all later applications of mechanics in the search for the regularities believed to be exhibited by all matter, whether in inanimate nature, in living organisms or in human society."6 Judgements regarding cause and effect are said to lie outside the field of science. Science ”can never deal directly with values, nor can it ever reach ultimate ends . . . [3:7' is always incomplete and tentative . . . [3:7'deals with 5K. William Kapp, Toward A Science of Man in Society (The Hague: Iartinus Nijhoff, 19 1 , p. 76. 6E. Jordan, as translated and paraphrased by Kapp, Ibid., p. 77. 10 mechanism . . . not with purpose."7 It is the hope of the physical scientist that he can express his idea in such a way that it will convey the same meaning to all persons in all times and places. Thus, the symbolic language of mathematics is widely used to express the apparent regularities of physico-chemical systems. Principles defining events and processes that, upon careful observation, exhibit an extremely high probability of recurrence, are com- monly referred to as "natural laws” and are expressions of the dogma of determinism. Precisely defined, absolute determinism means that ”given complete knowledge of the state of an iso- lated system, it is possible to predict its future behavior accurately and unequivocally."8 Few physical scientists today accept the concept of -determinism as applicable to nuclear—physical processes, but find the concept consistent with macro-physical processes. This dichotomy has arisen because of the inadequacy of measurement techniques for dealing with individual atoms. "Certain processes within the atom cannot be observed and analyzed without disturbing what is being Observed and hence affecting the outcome of the experiment. As a result of this uncontrollable influence of the Observation on the observed, 7A.R. Patton, Sc e e 0 he No -Scienti (Minnea- polis: Burgess Publishing Co., I962), p. 3. 8Erwin Schrodinger, Science Theo d M (New York: Dover Publications, Inc., 19 7 , p. 7 . 11 the latter becomes ambiguous and indeterminate."9 Faced with this dilemma, scientists have theorized that the high degree of predictability of macro-physical events is the result of statistical consistency or regularity in the interaction of an enormous number of particles. Thus, it appears that the particles neutralize each other's indeterminate action. So in spite of some spontaneity and a degree of uncertainty in the micro-physical processes of inorganic systems, the order— liness of the universe is said to be the supreme discovery 10 in science. Growth concepts ppppgipipg t2 inorggpic systems.-~As conceived by many authors, growth is a property found only in organic systems. A proponent of this view is E.Altevogt, who contends that growth-like processes observed in inorganic sys- tems as in crystals and.minerals cannot properly be called growth.11 The distinct differences will become apparent upon comparison of inanimate and animate processes. Recognition of the inapplicability of the term ”growth“ to inorganic physico- chemical processes is implied by the infrequency of its use. The most consistent usage of the term in describing events that are characteristic of non—living systems appears in discussions A. 9Kapp, op. cit., pp. 77-78. 10Harold H. Titus, Liv es Philo 0 (New York: American Book Company, 19U6I, pp. 53—39. 11 E. Altevogt, “Growth," The Encyclopedia Americana, 13 (1963). p- 499a- 12 of cyclical geological prooesses--as in youthful, mature, and old landscapes and streams-~and in regard to accretive expansion of crystals. Scientists evidently prefer to de- vise discrete terms for discrete processes rather than risk confusion through widespread use of a single term for differ— ing phenomena, especially a term that may have originated in another field of inquiry. Without getting deeply involved in the highly tech- nical subject matter of crystallography, it is of interest to briefly examine the essential concepts of crystal growth. Solid matter (in contradistinction to gaseous and liquid matter) is said to be crystalline if its atoms, molecules, or ions are organized in a regularly repeating pattern through- out. All other solid matter is termed noncrystalline or amor- phous. Most solid matter belongs to the former category. Pure chemical substances are composed of clusters of chemical units, e.g., atoms or molecules, of the same kind and arranged according to some model pattern. Although the chemical units do not retain this order in gaseous or liquid states, upon crystallization they become "arranged in space as if all were derived from some arbitrarily chosen model cluster by a simple geometrical operation repeated again and again."12 Thus, atoms and ions link together according to rules determined by their inherent nature to form a consistent 12nCrygtallography," Encyclopaedia Britannica, VI (196U), p. 852. 13 architectural pattern known as a lattice. Inorganic systems are said to ”grow" when they ex- tend their boundaries by the addition of clusters of atoms to their free surfaces. Crystals surrounded by a fluid (”an environment of radial symmetry") will "grow" symmetrically in accordance with the crystal pattern. In short, the most com- mon growth concept relating to inorganic systems applies to an accretive form of boundary expansion, i.e., growth by the addition of layer upon layer of similar substance at the peri- phery. ngppgc Systems General characteri§t1c§.--Like sub-atomic particles, atoms, molecules, crystals, geological formations, and astro- nomical systems, living things are organized wholes possess- ing interdependent coordinated parts. Atomic structure is common to all living and non-living forms of matter. Living or organic systems, however, possess their own peculiar ”kinds of organization that are made possible through through the unique bonding properties of the element carbon. This element is structured in such a way that compounds of great complexity and virtually boundless variety can be built from it, using other elements, chiefly hydrogen, oxygen, nitrogen, and phos— phorous."13 Among these complex organic compounds is proto- plasm, a substance that possesses the property of self-dupli- 13Philip H. Phenix, Reglps of Megpipg (New York: McGrawéHill Book Co., 196U), p. 111. 1U cation. A living cell is a mass of protoplasm containing a nucleus and lying within a semipermeable membrane boundary. It is an organized whole possessing all the fundamental proper- ties of life and capable of functioning as an independent unit. Direction of its processes is the work of the nucleus: death of the nucleus (from the loss of any part of its substance) brings death to the can.” Pace and McCashland's Collpge Phypiology identifies eight definite physiological properties of protoplasm, which distinguish living from non-living systems. The properties are: 1. Contractilipy-shortening, as in muscular move- ments. 2. Irritability-othe ability to respond to a stimulus. 3. Conductivityo-progressive transmission of a changed condition throughout the cell. 4. Metaboligp--the sum of all the chemical processes going on within a cell, tissue, or organ. The process of metabolism involves the changing of substances from one form to another. This is done by the complementary pro- cesses of anabolism (the change of substances into a higher or more complex form) and catabolism (the breaking down or reduction of substances to a simpler form). 5. Adaptation-~the ability to modify behavior in 1“Helen Howell Neal, The Universe and You (Laguna Beach, Cal.: Carlborg-Blades Inc., 1953), p. 31. 15 accordance with a change in environment. 6. Reproduction--the ability of cells and organisms to reproduce in kind. 7. Spontaneity--autonomous (automatic) activity on the part of a living system. The authors note that many scientists consider spontaneity to be questionable. 8. Growth-~an increase in the total mass of proto- plasm within the cell, tissue, or organism. In living systems growth occurs by intussusception, or building up of new material by combinations of smaller molecules. Sometimes growth is described as an increase in numbers, but this is true growth only when accompanied by an in- crease in mass.15 Philip Phenix writes of a hierarchy of organic pat- terns, consisting of cells and ”noncellular protoplasmic materials” such as fibers and body fluids, in which each higher level of organization possesses larger size, greater structural complexity, more energy requirements, and exhibits a greater degree of instability than lower organizational levels. Tissues are formed of aggregates of similar kinds of cells, organs are formed of aggregates of cooperative tissues, organ systems coordinate the individual organs, and organisms 16 comprise the whole. An organism may be described as an open system, 15Donald M. Pace and Benjamin McCashland, College Physiology (New York: Thomas I. Crowell Co., 1955), pp. 7-8. 16Phenix, op. cit., pp. 111-112. 16 that is, a whole in which the parts are structurally related and which "maintains and perpetuates itself through a con- tinuous exchange of materials (matter and energy) With the en- vironment."17 The much less complex and relatively stable physico-chemical arrangements of inorganic phenomena may, thus, be spoken of as closed systems. . Another unique property of organisms-~self-regulation or steady-state control-~is not found in the inorganic universe. By means of homeostatic mechanisms, the internal environment remains remarkably constant in spite of an ever- changing external environment. Constancy of the system (at least in higher organisms) depends upon hormonal and nervous mechanisms to restore internal balance. Genes, which direct protein synthesis in consonance with inherent patterns that reflect the entire structure of the organism and make each cell act to carry out the plan of the whole, and ex- cretory and circulatory systems also play important roles in maintaining a relatively constant internal environment. Besides steady-state control, reproduction and adaptation (to the organism's inanimate and animate environment) further the "goal” of self—perpetuation. Two other characteristics of living systems are worth noting before moving into the discussion of organic growth. They are evolution and regeneration. Briefly, ”Islam 13- 113 and Kapp. 294.211: 13- 96- 17 evolution is the concept that the present forms of all ani- mate and inanimate things is the result of a temporal develop- ment process. The concept acknowledges the dynamic order of the universe in contrast to the earlier (pre-i9th century) belief that nature was static and that organic and inorganic "18 Scientists things "existed as such from the beginning. attribute this property of living systems to transmit their characteristics from one generation to the next to a stable arrangement of atoms in the genes.19 The capacity to regenerate, a characteristic of certain kinds of living cells, is a process that is not evident in inorganic systems. Examples of this phenomena may betseen in the restoration of connections in vascular bundles after being out and in the capacity of earthworms to form a new tail after the original has been out off.20 Growth conceptg pertginipg to opggpic systems.-qu mentioned earlier, growth is a fundamental characteristic of living matter. Broadly, the term refers to the unique and highly coordinated ”sequence of body changes which any ani- mal or plant undergoes during its lifetime."21 Charles Wilson} Greene, oo-author of a noted study of plant and animal growth, presents an interesting overview of the process: 18Phenix, Ibid., p. 109. 19Kapp, op. cit., p. 9U 20From a quote by E.W. Sinnott, Ibid., p. 91. 21Howard V. Meredith, ”Growth and Development," Collier's Encyclopedia, XI (1965), p. #73. 18 An analysis of growth from the causal standpoint is exceptionally difficult and in many respects impossible. Living protoplasm of both plants and animals possesses the power to add to its mass more living substance similar in kind. 'The growth impulse in an embryo plant or animal adequately supplied with foods and food vitamins is manifested by an orderly but infinitely complicated series of changes in which there is a fairly definite and average cycle of increase in mass, an unfolding of characteristic form, and an intricate differentiation of parts all according to laws . . . . We recognize that during the growth in size,and occurring hand in hand with differentiation in struc- ture, there is an orderly unfolding of function, a differentiation of physiological labor, so to speak. Capacity to function in different ways and to different degrees appears in orderly sequence, and the functional acts and processes at once become a part of the environ- ment which henceforth conditions the further develop- ment of the individual, both morphologically and phy- Biologically.22 A cursory review of literature pertaining to bio- logical growth is sure to impress upon the reader that there are many ways in which to categorize the complex changes that an organism undergoes. Among the most clearly defined classifications is the sixfold breakdown advanced by Howard V. Meredith, which deals with changes occurring with age in the kind, number, size, shape, position, and composition of body parts.23 Each of these aspects, and their principal related concepts, is discussed herein. 22Charles Wilson Greene, ”Physiological Factors Re— gulating Normal and Pathological Growth," Growth (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1928), p. 1&3. 23Meredith, op. cit. 19 Changes in kind of body parts is spoken of as trans- formation. Two types of transformation are recognized, muta- tion and differentiation. The former is a hereditary differ- ence in characteristics of the offspring and the parents and is a consequence of changes in the chromosomes or genes. The latter pertains to the development of structural units during the embryonic period of growth, i.e., following the initial division of the zygote (fertilized egg) into two cells. Not all structural units that develop within the embryo are re- tained. Research has shown that identifiable parts emerge, last a short period of time, and are discarded. Changes in number of cells come about through cell division or proliferation. Through assimilation and syn- thesis of protein, a cell grows in size until the substances required for growth can no longer be diffused to all parts of the larger cell. At that time, cell growth is interrupted by cell division. ”In its earliest developmental state the human being is a one-celled organism: by early adulthood it has become an organism of more than twenty trillion cells."24 Changes 1p size occur in the cells, structural parts, and in the organism as a whole. Size changes vary in rate, duration, and direction. Scientists have found that organisms of the same species grow in a relatively predictable manner- In fact, if size is plotted on a chart against a time scale, ZHIbid. 20 a characteristic growth curve for an organism or structural member is obtained. The rate of growth of the component parts, however, varies widely and occasionally individual members will be decreasing in size (”degrowing” or negatively growing) while the over-all increase of the organism con» tinues. Although detailed growth curves will vary from species to species, . . . they resemble each other in their approach to a sigmoid or S-shape. This kind of curve indicates that growth of individuals tends to begin slowly, to accelerate to a sustained maximum and then to decline . . . but the changes in rate at the beginning and end of the curve seem to indicate that the size attained is itself a regulator of growth, that is, that growtp ig in sope measure self-regplating. The organism behaves as though it were at first too small for maximum growth: it slowly achieves o timum size, but then the very con- sequences of rapid growth act to limit it. The impli- cation [Ig7 that fairly potent grggth regulators must exist within the organism . . . . (Underlining added.) A correlation also has been found between rate of growth and longevity: slowly growing organisms show a tendency to live longer than those experiencing more intense growth. The concepts of self-regulation and maintenance of an optimum size are fascinating and unique aspects of or- ganic systems. Altevogt suggests that body size and number of cells may be precisely established by hereditary factors. ”As soon as this fixed number of cells is reached, growth [Eh numberg7 ceases."26 Thus, ”normal“ biological growth indi- cates that there is a high degree of correlation between the 25Grobstein, op. cit., p. 968. 26Altevogt, op. cip., p. U99b. 21 growth rates of the component parts and the whole. Under certain conditions, however, the intricate regulating mechanisms may be disrupted resulting in growth abnormalities, such as neoplasms (uncoltrolled malignant growth, as cancer) and physical defectives (organisms that depart greatly from the normal form or structure of the species, as in gigantism or dwarfism). Another form of abnormal.growth in size results from the adaptation of structural parts to conditions of over— use or under-use. Hypertrophy denotes overgrowth or en- largement of living tissue in response to the demands of increased activity. In contrast, decreased activity leads to atrophy or diminution in the size of individual cells, tissues, or organs. A distinction should be noted between the neoplasm/physical defective form of growth and the hypertrophy/atrophy form. In the former, tissue enlarge- ment is the result of an increase in number of cells: in the latter, growth is the result of cell enlargement.27 Changes in shape appear as an organism ages. Changes are identifiable in the configuration of individual struc- tural members and in the organism as a whole (insofar as specific body members comprise a varying proportion of the whole). Chgpges in position of an organism's bodily members is evident with age. These involve shifts in alignment, 27L. L. Langley and E. Cheraskin, The Ppygfiglogy of Man.(Mew York: MoGrawaHill Book Company, Inc., 195 , pp., 2-63. 22 migration in various directions, and rotation of parts. Chapges in composition pertain to differences in texture, resiliency, and color or pigmentation. Examples of compositional changes are evident in the increasing brittleness of bones with age, the lessening softness of arteries, the graying of hair in later adulthood, and the alteration of the water content of muscle. Since plants and animals are open systems that con- tinuously exchange materials with their environment, their growth is somewhat conditioned by certain external factors. Among the external conditioners are the availability of suitable temperature, humidity, light, oxygen, nutritional compounds, and space. Socio-Cultural Systems General Charactepiptics In viewing socio-cultural reality, discussion focuses on human society as a unique level of organization. As a foundation for developing a body of knowledge, social scien- tists assume that (1) human beings behave in regular and re- current patterns, and (2) men are social animals, not crea- tures in isolation. Men live together and "continually inter- act, responding to one another and shaping their behavior in relation to the behavior and expectations of others."28 Inter- action is a persisting, rather than singular, process of action and reaction. 28Ely Chinoy, S c et : Introduct on t S ciol (New York: Random House, 1961), p. 27. 23 Some of the common concepts used in reference to human society are briefly defined in this passage by Philip Phenix: A pgpigl_gyppp is a system of social interaction, whose members cooperate toward common goals and recog- nize certain social norms specifying rules of behavior, rights, and obligations, violation of which brings sanctions in the form of loss of cooperation, diminished prestige, and specific penalties. Social structure, which refers to the relatively stable modes of human interrelation, is determined by differentiated social ositions, to which attach certain pples (oingations within the social system) and status (Fights and pri- vileges relating to authority, remuneration, immunities, and prestige). A reference group is a group the concep- tion of which is part of the individual's basis for appraising his own social situation and expectations. Reference groups are an important factor in determining subjective meanings, intentions, and hence social behav1 or 0 Social norms are institutionalized when they are accepted by a large proportion of the members of the social system, are internalized, and sanctioned. A social institution (e.g., marriage or the system of exchange) is a complex of institutionalized norms. These norms are the basis for ensuring conformit and social control, and they also measure social deviation. A society is a social group which occupies a definite territory, is perpetuated largely by sexual reproduc- tion within the group, possesses a comprehensive pp;- ture (including characteristic thought forms, beliefs, values, norms, customs, institutions, and symbolic systems), and does not form a subgroup of any other group (i.e., is independent). Every society has various subsystems which exist to meet basic func- tional needs, e.g., the family for social self- perpetuation, the economy for adaptation to the material environment , the polity for the attainment of social ends, and~such systems as the press, courts, and re- ligious organizations for the integration of the society. Any social structure or partial structure (mechanism) may be analyzed as to function or dysfunction, by which is meant the degree to which it does or does not fulfill social needs. Pitirim A. Sorokin speaks of the socio-cultural 29Phenix, op. cit., pp. 130-31. 2U 'world as being superimposed on mankind's physical and biological worlds. To elaborate, he envisions inorganic phenomena as having a single component (physico-chemical), organic phenomena as having two components (physico-chemical and vital), and socio-cultural phenomena as having three components (physico-chemical, vital, and meaningful). Such phenomena [Eocio-cultura17 are found only in the world of mindful human beings, functioning as meaningful personalities, who meaningfully interact with one another and create, operate, accumulate, and objectify their meanings (or meaningful values and norms) in and through an endless number of "material vehicles"--all physical and biological objects and ener- gies--used for a "materializetion" of the “immaterial” meanings, values, and norms of the human mind. Be- ginning with the simplest tool made, or the simplest path cut in the wilderness, or the simplest hut built, and ending with all the gadgets, machinery, domesticated animals, palaces, cathedrals, universities, museums, all the cities and villages, all the pictures, statues, books, all the energies harnessed by man-abeginning with heat and ending with electricity, radio, atomic fission-~all this makes the "material culture" of humanity. It is made up of the totality of the bio- physical objects and energies that are used as vehicles for the objectification of meanings, values, and norms.30 Thus, persons and groups are characterized as the bearers, creators, and agents of meaning: material vehicles, or artifacts, are the objectifications of meaning. Seemingly to emphasize the superimposed nature of socio-cultural sys- tems on inorganic and organic systems, Sorokin uses "super- organic” as a synonym for ”socio-cultural." Further, the composite of meanings, values, and norms possessed by groups or individuals is termed their ideological culture: the com— posite of meaningful actions by individuals or groups through which the ideological culture (meanings, values, and norms) 3°Pit1rim A. Sorokin, Soc a 11080 hies of an A e of Crisis (Boston: The Beacon Press, I951), p. 189. 25 is realized is termed their'behavioral culture: and the com- posite of the material vehicles through which their ideolo- gical culture is externalized is termed their material culture.31 Another useful concept devised by Sorokin--the socio-cultural system-~13 helpful in understanding interaction in human societies and in distinguishing them from biological and physico-chemical systems. By definition, a socio-cultural system is a "causalemeaningful unity" characterized by depen- ‘dence or interdependence of its parts upon one another, parts upon the whole, and the whole upon its parts. It is dis- tinguished on one hand from a purely cgusal system, which is termed a functional interdependence of physical, chemical, or biological parts and wholes, wholes and parts, and parts ;and parts (the ”triple form of dependence"), and on the other hand from a purely meanipgyul system, which is the totality of propositions united into a logically consistent and com- prehensible whole but not objectified or grounded in material vehicles or human behavior. A socio-cultural system is neither purely causal nor purely meaningful, but a mixture of 31To be sure, a number of other conceptions of culture have been advanced. William P. McEwen proposed ascheme, not differing greatly from Sorokin's, that he hoped would be in- offensive and acceptable to anthropologists, sociologists, and psychologists alike. Briefly, he identifies culture as having or anizational and ideatiopg; aspects. The organizational aspect of a culture pa ern is "externalized in social insti- tutions and the ideational aspects . . . are internalized in the goal—seeking motivation of individual persons or a group of persons when they select their own ends from among cul- turally begotten symbols.” William P. McEwen, ”A Synoptic Model for Social-Scientific Inquiry,’I A New S rve of the Spcial §ciences, Baidya Nath Varma (ed.), (Bombay: Asia Pub- lishing House, 1962), p. 197. 26 causal and meaningful interdependencies. In short, ”when a system of meanings is objectified by material vehicles and becomes not only an ideological but also a behavioral and material system . . . it simultaneously becomes a causal- meaningful system or unity. Causal as well as meaningful ties bind together its parts into one ideologicalébehavioral- material system."32 Sorokin's ”principle of imminent change" also appears to be a valid characteristic of socio-cultural systems. The reasoning behind his hypothesis is described as follows: Since any sociocultural system is composed of human beings as one of its components, and since any organism, so long as it exists, cannot help changing, the socio- cultural system is a ”going concern" and cannot help changing so long as it exists, regardless of its ex- ternal conditions, even when they are absolutely con- stant. The very performance of any activity, any re- action or response, to a given environment . . . changes the system and makes it react differently a second time, and then a third time, and subsequent times. Gradually or abruptly, rapidly or slowly, the system has to change, just because it exists as a going concern. Ch e thus is imminent in it and rooted in its very nature. Thus, he theorizes that the cause of change in a socio-cultural system is inherent in the system, but ac- knowledges that external forces (other socio-cultural sys- tems) may also provide reason for change. Because a socio- cultural system exists and functions, it incessantly gener- ates consequences that may be good or bad, desirable or un- 32Sorokin, op. cit., p. 195. 33Pitirim A. Sorokin, Socia d Cultural ics, Vol. IV: Basic Problems, PrinciplesI and Methodg (New York: The Bedminster Press, 19 2 ,p. 59 . 2? desirable, intentional or unintentional. It bears within it the power to shape its destiny and, in this sense, may be considered indeterministic. Although the main direction of the system's unfolding is somewhat predetermined by the in- herent potentialities of the system, "most of the details . . . become an unforeseen and unpredictable matter of chance, environment, and free choice of the system."34 Unlike other living organisms, man has acquired or developed the capacity to think and reason abstractly and to communicate by using symbolic representations. Con- ceptual thought and symbolic expression permit man to ”ex- perience himself and the world indirectly” and give him the ability to share his experiences, beliefs, and attitudes with others, to establish some community of experience, and to trans- mit acquired experiences from one generation to the next. It is this ability of transmitting acquired and shared experiences which gives human groups their dis- tinctive characteristics inasmuch as it opens the way to a new type of "inheritance" or ”cultural evolution" . . . . Human society may thus be viewed as the outcome of cumula- tive evolutionary processes which give rise to qualita- tively different and new methods of organization.35 In the process of enculturation, the child acquires, largely through the efforts of the family or kinship system, the ability to speak, to think, and to remember experiences in terms of widely used concepts. Thus, a child learns the 341bid., p. 619. 35Kapp, op. cit., p. 105. 28 cultural pattern and will respond to common symbols and situations in a relatively predictable manner. McEwen warns us, however, that we may not discount all individual ini- tiative and responsibility and assume that the culture de- termines man's patterns of action and thinking. Man also has the capability of creating new cultural patterns.36 The goal of gratifying human needs and wants, which needless to say go far beyond the fundamental environmental materials necessary for biological survival, leads to conflicts of interests, striving for power, and the establishment of public authority (government) to set up procedures for re- stricting individual (private) power. Individuals, groups, and governments attempt to achieve their respective objec- tives or purposes by means of social action, i.e., private and collective decisions and activities. William.Kapp ela— borates on social action as follows: Social action . . . is oriented toward the future. It implies not only some future purpose, aim, aspiration, or value and hence some evaluation and choice but some anticipation of the possible consequences of the trans- action. Despite these characteristics we do pp; imply that all social action is rational in the sense that it is preceded by careful and reasoned deliberation con- cerning means and ends. All we have in mind is that social action involves, in varying degrees, a perception of the present and the future and some element of de- cision making as opposed to routinized behavior. In other words, social action and the psychic realities which precede them do not run wildly in all directions but show some measure of uniformity . . . . This uniformity is not interpreted to mean that all social action follows one pattern. On the contrary, there remain possibilities for novelty--for some form of autonomous action. Essen- “... l. 36MoEwen, pp. cit., p. 197. 29 tially, what we are saying is that human behavgpp, and hence social action, is not to be cgnceived as a mechani- cal and automatic response to external and internal stimuli. No ma ter how much individuals and social groups and their behavior must be regarded as products of the patterns of routinized sociocultural arrangements which they have inherited, they preserve a degree of autonomy and spontaneity which enables them to act in a novel or unique manner. If this is granted . . . it follows that social action must be regarded as effective (in whatever small degree) to influence the future. In other words, the pattern of roptingzed sociocultural conditions cannot be saidyto determine MW W W predictable gashion. Underlining added. The actions (decision instigated processes) of various persons and groups do not carry equal "weights” in society, i.e., different social entities possess differ- ent degrees of power. This means that the unpredictable be- havior of one or more individuals or groups may exert a disproportionate (in terms of the total number of indivi- duals or groups) influence on social processes. Because of these considerations and the high probability of error of any "social law", Kapp concludes that "indeterminacy and incomplete predictability must be regarded as typical charac- teristics of social events and social processes."38 Without further belaboring the general characteris— tics of the socio-cultural realm or level of organization, 37Kapp, op. cit., pp. 110-11. 38Ibid., p. 113. After demonstrating by use of statistical methods to find the probable relative error of physical laws and social laws, Kapp observes that ”the smaller the number of effective elements (persons, groupg7 in a social system, the greater the probable error in any social law." 30 we may turn to the problem of "growth." Growth concepts peptaining to socio-cultural systems.-- Socio-cultural systems, such as cities or urban areas, are in- cessantly in a process of change, that is, they are in whole or part in a continuous state of movement, transformation, or alteration. For a process to be meaningful according to Sorokin, we must know, in addition to the identity of the sub- ject of change (the unit that "grows"), its time and space relationships and its direction (quantitative and qualitative increase, decrease, or constancy).39 Thus, an understanding of the growth process of a particular community requires in- formation regarding four general aspects of change: 1. Tipp, which entails a study of the sequence of events (synchronous change or delayed action, for example), the rate of change, and the duration of the change (the beginning and end of growth). 2. §pgpp, which entails the movement of physical objects in geometrical (or geographical) space and, per- haps, changes in the dimension of social space (as in pro- motion or demotion, or other aspects of social mobility). 3. ngptgtgtive growth, which pertains to a numerical increase in either human agents or vehicles, or both. U. nglitative growth, which signifies an improve— ment and perfection of (a) the system of meanings, i.e., refinement or greater integration of the system through -—'— v—V 39Sorokin, Social and Cultural M95, Vol. IV, LU ' Oit'u PP' 78'851 {97-99. 31 increased interdependence of components or consistency in the system of meanings, (b) the human agents, by better articulation of the system of meanings, (c) the vehicles, by better design of buildings, machinery, and other physical objects, increased accuracy of instruments, etc., or (d) all three components. The most widely publicized and researched of these general dimensions seem to be the spatial, temporal, and quan— titative aspects. Indeed, in common usage "urban growth” is practically synonymous with ”population increase," "urban sprawl,” ”economic expansion,” ”an increased rate of growth,“ or any combination of these ideas. As a process, urban growth is often manifested in the following somewhat oversimplified manner. With the creation of a new industry (the bringing together in appropriate com- bination of entrepreneurial talents, capital, technology, and labor) or expansion of an existing industry or other source of employment, a community is confronted with a growth situa- tion. Research has indicated that new job opportunities in industrial establishments promote a population increase that far exceeds the labor needs of the industries themselves. This multiplying effect, as it is sometimes called, is manifested in the creation of additional jobs in the areas of supply, administration, and services. Further, Wolf Schneider finds that a city's population.may eventually reach a magnitude at which ”the size of the city in itself draws more people whether 32 they have a job or not.”0 Increasing population numbers (resulting from net migration and an excess of births over deaths) in turn creates a demand for housing which is satis- fied by new construction of individual dwellings and tracts at the urban periphery, conversion of existing dwellings into multiple units, and the erection of new units on land cleared through public or private renewal efforts. These generalized growth relationships, and many others (such as a rising inadequacy of transportation systems, schools, parks, and essential municipal services, rising threats to human health and safety, disruption of ecological relationships, changes in individual attitudes and values, changes in social institutions, and economies with increasing urban scale) add to the complexity of outlining the process on a simple cause and effect basis. It should be reiterated, however, that the quantitative and qualitative changes in the course of growth are expressions of individual, group, and community meanings and values, and that the socio-oultural system is at the same time a product of human action and a conditioner of further human behavior. In regard to the temporal dimension, it seems inno- cent enough to conclude that the slower the city's growth rate the greater the period of time that it has in which to adjust v '— V w—w v—v—w Ll'oWolf' Schneider, Bab lo I Ev e e: e t Mgp's Fate (London: Hodder and Stougfiton, Ltd., I9E3), p. 551. 33 to changing circumstances. Rapidly growing municipalities on the other hand typically experience a considerable time lag between the creation of a demand for municipal services and the satisfaction of that demand. In brief, the growth of urban areas is generally perceived as a process of quantitative increase in opportun- ities, population, and material culture, the latter becoming apparent in the horizontal and vertical spatial expansion of the urban area. The temporal dimension of growth also is customarily expressed in quantitative terms, as in rates of increase or in acres of land converted to urban uses over a period of time. Until recently the fourth dimension of growth- qualitative change-has received much less attention than the quantitative aspects. And yet the qualitative dimension is perhaps the most important insofar as psycho-social and cultural phenomena are concerned. In socio-cultural systems we are concerned with such qualitativestates as misery and happiness, health and sickness, hatred and love, beauty and ugliness, honesty and deceit, orderliness and chaos, comfort and pain, good and bad: and with distinctive odors, tastes, colors, textures, and the like. Although some philosophers and economists contend that quality can be reduced to (described in) quantitative terms, Sorokin firmly opposes the contention in stating: Even in those few cases where quality can be des- cribed in the terms of quantity, the quality slips through, and evaporates from the quantitative formulas. 34 To a person who does not know red, green, blue, as perceptible to the sense of sight, the formulas of the number of vibrations and the length of the waves of other which correspond to red and green and blue can never give any idea of the quality of these colors. In the case of most of the psychosocial qualities this quantitative description has been and will probably remain useless, partly because these qualities do not have any unit of quantitative measurement, partly be- cause the fundamental categories which compose the framework of reference in the social and cultural sciences are predominantly qualitative. Unlike the space and time of physics, social space, social time, and other categorfies are . . . not so much quantitative as quali- tative. 1 In concluding the description of growth of socio- cultural systems, it is particularly interesting to note that Sorokin detects a ”negative relationship” between quan— titative growth and qualitative ”purity" of a complex sys- tem, that is, . . . quantitative colossalism is a sign of qualita- tive deterioration rather than of qualitative improve- ment . . . . Qualitatively the greatest religious, philosophical, ethical, scientific, or artistic systems are at their best and purest when their followers are limited to a small group of faithful, competent, and understanding apostles. When they are diffused among vast millions, their purity verity, adequacy, is_lost, disfigured, and vulgarized.42 This statement of warning-although possibly an ex— aggeration-logically leads to the questions: ”Is there a limit to urban growth?" and "What is the optimum size of a city?" Social thinkers, demographers, and city planners over the ages have speculated about the continuity of urban popu- Ll'lsorokin, ci d C c , Vol. I: F otuation of F0 8 o , p. 9. 421bid., Vol. IV, p. 8U. 35 lation growth as population levels mount to new magnitudes. A common misconception seems to be that such growth is in accord with “natural laws” and therefore is destined to follow an eternally linear course upward. The opposing view, espoused by some, holds that a principle of limit is opera- tive in many, if not all, socio—cultural systems. According to this hypothesis a socio-oultural system cannot continue its variation or transformation beyond a certain limit with— out becoming unidentifiable and thus ending its existence.43 Additionally, "there seems to be an optimum size of an organi- zation of a given type in given circumstances. A great devia- tion from such an optimum size either in the direction of overgrowth or undergrowth seems to be negatively correlated with the longevity of the institutions . . . .U4 The economic conception of limitation is far more familiar and far less vague than the preceding theory. E. T. Peterson writes that in spite of man's appalling creative powers ("he is the only creature who has changed his own ecolOSY. and, incidentally, that of other organisms") he is . . . disconcertingly limited, as is almost everything else, by the law of diminishing [3r nonproportional7 returns. It is most curious that man has understood and been guided by this law at almost every point, save where the economic merges with the social. And man's most “31b1d., p. 709. “HSorokin as quoted in Charles P. and Zone K. Loomis, Modern Social Theories (Princeton, N.J.: D. Van Nostrand Co., Inc., 9 . p- 5. 36 stupendous social creation is the modern metropolis, where the law of diminishing returns is operative, often little noticed, though with fateful consequences to man and his society. On the Transfer of Congepts, Thegries, and Knowledge BetweenAKinds of SyStems Because of the wealth of vehement literature on the subject, one need not read at great length to be impressed that it is dangerous to assume that tested laws or regulari- ties in one level of organization (i.e., inorganic, organic, or sooio-cultural systems) are valid when applied to pheno— mena of another level. Similarly, knowledge that has been verified in one field does not become invalid because "we find that it cannot account for phenomena in another realm. To force the experiences of one realm into the regularities and conceptualizations that have proved suitable in another 46 realm can only give rise to error. Analogical thinking that is carried to extremes is customarily the source of such difficulties. Intrigued by the successes that physical and biological scientists had achieved in discovering regularities and order in their LI5E. T. Peterson, ”Cities Are Abnormal," Citieg Are Abnormal ed. E. T. Peterson (Norman, Okla.: University of OEIahoma Press, 1946), p. 17. Stated concisely, the law of diminishing returns is a rule for arriving at an optimum pro- portioning or combination of the factors of production in a given scale of enterprise in order to yield the greatest pro- fits. Assuming no change in production methods, as successive inputs of one or more productive factors are added to a fixed amount of other factors, " a point is soon reached after which the additional or marginal output per unit of input decreases and eventually becomes a negative quantity.” Raleigh Bar- 1owe, Land Resource Economics (Engleweod Cliffs, N.J.: Pren- tice-HaII, Inc., I961), p. 117. H6Kapp, op. cit., p. 83. 37 fields, social scientists eagerly assumed that society could be understood by merely seeking the underlying natural laws of order, e.g., the "mechanical forces” that are operative in keeping the social system in a state of "equilibrium? or ”balance". Hilgard and Lerner, Chinoy, and Kapp attribute the willingness of 18th and 19th century social scholars to apply ideas derived in the organic and inorganic realms to man and society, to an attempt to emulate their successes and create a new scientific discipline.”7 It was believed that several general theories and concepts could be applied with universal validity to essentially different subject matters. ”Few of the great creative minds of that period seem to have considered it necessary to raise any questions about the na- ture of social reality as a distinct subject matter of social Frank Hawkins notes in antempprgpy §ocial Theory that the tendency to think of human society as closely analogous to a biological organism is quite evident in the social and philosophical literature of every age. "For the most part this tendency is limited to the use of similies to express the unity of group life: but in the late nineteenth century, at the hands of what is called the organismic school of sociologists, the LI7Ernest R. Hilgard and Daniel Lerner, “The Person: Subject and Object of Science and Policy,” The P c Sciences (Stanford, Calif.: Stanford University Press, 19%1), p. 29: Kapp, op. cit., pp. 28-29: Chinoy, pp. cit., p. 70. LIBKapp, Ipid., p. 29. 38 fields, social scientists eagerly assumed that society could be understood by seeking the underlying natural laws of order, e.g., the ”mechanical forces" which keep the social system in a state of "equilibrium" or "balance." Hilgard and Lerner, Chinoy, and Kapp attribute the willingness of 18th and 19th century social scholars to apply ideas derived in the organic and inorganic realms to man and society, to an attempt to emu- late their successes and create a new scientific discipline.47 It was believed that several general theories and concepts could be applied with universal validity to essentially dif- ferent subject matters. ”Few of the great creative minds of that period seem to have considered it necessary to raise any questions about the nature of social reality as a distinct subject matter of social inquiry."u8 Frank Hawkins notes in Contemporapy Social Theopy that the tendency to think of human society as analogous to an or- ganism frequently appears in sociological literature. "For the most part this tendency is limited to the use of similies to express the unity of group life: but in the late nineteenth century, at the hands of what is called the organismic school of sociologists, the bold step of asserting that society is an organism was actually taken."49 Interest in this sociological LI7Ernest R. Hilgard and Daniel Lerner, "The Person: subject and Object of Science and Policy," The Polic Sciences (Stanford University Press, 1951), p. 29: Kapp, op. cit., pp. 28-29: Chinoy, op. cit., p. 70. “BKapp, _I_bid., p. 29. H9Frank H. Hawkins, "Demographic and Biological Contri— butions to Sociological Principles,” Contem ora Social Theo eds. H. E. Barnes, H. Becker, and F. B. Becker INew York: D. Appleton-Century Co., 19U0), p. 293. 39 approach increased after the publication, in 1859, of Darwin‘s Origin of Specie . Hawkins indicates that since many notable writersbwere . . . impressed by the growing conception of society as a part of nature and not a special creation, they held that there can be nothing in society not previously found in organismic nature: that society must be an organism because it is composed of organisms: and that sociology would only rest on a sound basis when it posited organicist concepts.5o After the turn of the century the well known Chicago school of urban sociologists turned to investigation of urban patterns in terms of biological concepts in hopes that they might offer suggestions for "method and procedure." They were not fully convinced, however, that the organismic approach provided the proper model for organizing society.51 To sum up, analogies may serve some useful purpose, for example, in helping to bring to the fore a problem situation. An analogy, however, may illustrate the problem from a particular point of view and sufficiently cloud the issue so that it is difficult to view it from another per- spective. Kapp emphasizes that . . . indiscriminate use of the analogy may actually change the character of the problem. Instead of ser- ving as a tool of analysis that forces us to deal sys- tematically with the actual and troublesome details of phenomena, the analogical method seduces the analyst to disregard contradictory details and to see only those as- pects of the problem which fit into the implicit or expli— cit models of celestial mechanics or biological evolution. Solpid., p. 295. 51Leonard Reissman, The Urban Process: Cities in Industrial Societies (New York: Free Press of Glencoe, 1964), p. 9 . 40 In this way, the inquiring mind may ”discover” iden- tities where there are actually differences and lose the capacity to distinguish between similarities . . . .52 Conclusion Although not a study in depth, the preceding dis- cussion of levels of organization and growth concepts makes it clear that we need not hazard a guess as to which is the ”truest form" of growth: the organic, inorganic, or socio- cultural. A considerable amount of support can be found for the viewpoint that the term was originally applied to pheno- mena of biological science and subsequently transferred by analogy to the spheres of physical and social science. It seems evident that we must recognize that the growth con- cept may be variously construed depending upon the clarity of thought of the perceiver. Because of the striking differences in the ways in which growth is manifested in each of the three kinds of systems, it is apparent that researchers must not con- fuse them and allow erroneous assumptions to misguide their efforts. When investigating social phenomena the researcher should avoid attributing the relatively predictable and deter- ministic characteristics of biological and physical phenomena to his unique subject matter. If such an error is allowed to "creep into” his methodology, the accuracy and meaningfulness of all subsequent conclusions are likely to be seriously affected. For the purposes of this thesis, the major differences in the broad forms of growth previously described pertain to '__— 52Kapp, op. cit., p. 30. #1 the characteristic ways in which the parts are related to the whole and thus to the predictability of various pheno— mena. As we have seen, both divisions of physical reality (inorganic and organic systems) are characterized by an inherent (natural) statistically consistent order of parts and wholes that is manifested in recurring-essentially determinte--relationships. Social systems, on the other hand, are marked by a far lesser degree of predictability because of the relative indeterminacy of relationships resulting from partial freedom of individual and group action. By means of social action, man possesses the means of altering his cultural environment: physical reality, on the contrary, is inherently deterministic. CHAPTER III A SAMPLING OF PROFESSIONAL TECHNIQUES AND ATTITUDES REGARDING URBAN GROWTH Equipped with the broad conceptual background on growth that was developed in the preceding chapter, atten- tion can now be directed to an investigation of a sample of planning documents in hopes of gaining some insight into the attitudes, assumptions, and techniques employed in pre- sent-day professional practice. In selecting a mere half- dozen samples for review, obviously no claim can be made that all or even typical approaches have been examined. An attempt has been made nevertheless to collect a diverse assortment of documents. Representation was sought of (1) public and pri— vate planning agencies, (2) a range of community sizes, (3) a cross section of geographical areas, and (4) some variation in the kinds of planning studies, i.e., not exclusively com- prehensive planning approaches, but special studies as well. It is acknowledged that definite shortcomings accom- pany this kind of critical assessment, not the least of which is the reliance on printed information alone, which means, of course,that the reader's understanding is limited by the quantity and quality of information that the planning agency desires to present. Therefore, planners may (and frequently 42 43 do) avoid an explicit description of methodology and of the relationship and interaction of the planning staff and the elected and appointed decision-makers. Thus, the reader of a planning report usually does not have all the facts necessary to make a valid judgement of the competency and logic of the planning effort. From the viewpoint of the critic, then, whatever is printed is accepted as a complete representation of the thought processes and decisions that underlie the planning effort unless otherwise stated in the report. After an introductory statement on the nature of the document, each is examined to find the attitudes and assump- tions in regard to the growth process and to ascertain what techniques were employed in dealing with growth. Lastly, a section of comments by the reviewer is presented. The Chicago Area Transportation Study (CATS) Introduction This special study of transportation in the Chicago metropolitan area, conducted under the sponsorship of the State of Illinois, Cook County, and the City of Chicago in cooperation with the Bureau of Public Roads of the U. S. Department of Commerce, is summarized in three volumes (pub- lished in 1959, 1960, and 1962). The study, initiated in the latter part of 1955, has been established on a continuing basis as an operating subdivision of the Illinois Division of Highways. The CATS agency acts in an advisory capacity to the LlJ-I' four governmental units that provide its financial support. The summary volumes provide an unusually clear state- ment of the planning concepts and appraoch used in assessing future traffic demands. In spite of the complexity of the subject matter, the authors seemed to make a special effort to produce a document that would be intelligible to a wide readership. Study Approach In the introductory paragraphs the authors note that: The task of the Study is to analyze the present tra- vel behavior, to forecast what the future requirements of the metropolitan region will be and, on the basis of fihi: information, to devise ariogg raggeiplzp f0; needed g ways an or mass ranspo a on ac es. Further, we are told that ”with long range goals expressed in specific plans, the multitude of continuing decisions by public and even private agencies are coordinated towards a ”2 There is, of course, little arguement about common target. the logic of this statement, but we might take issue wdth the authors when they assume that the resulting plan is an honest expression of the region's long range objectives re— garding growth. This skepticism is justified by the principal assumption which underlies the planning approach taken in pre- paring the transportation plan, to wit: 10 0 ea T s o ation Stud , Vol. I: Surve F d n s cago: S a e of no s v sion of Higfiways, Sep . 1959), p. 1. 2 Ibid. 45 The Study design rests upon the central idea that travel within an urban area is extremely orderly, measurable and basically rational. Travel is, in fact, so much a condition of urban life and is so regular, that it can almost be described in terms of natural laws. If travel were chaotic or random, the planner would be helpless. As it is, the orderliness in travel permits plans to be prepared and, furthermore, to be tested. Hence it is one of the primary purposes of the inventories to determine where regularity exists in travel: it is the primary purpose of the planning pro- cess to use these regularities to develop and test plans.3 Using this principle of order or regularity of human action, the Study proceeded by making a representative in- ventory of the origin and destination of trips within the Chicago area on an average weekday, including details such as mode of travel, trip purpose, land use at terminals, and travel time. The next step was to translate this information on present travel patterns into future demands and problems, or, as stated in the report, they needed to forecast the number and location of future travelers. "Furthermore, a region does not grow evenly in all its parts and hence it is certain that travel will not grow evenly. The simple ex- pansion of existing travel demands obviously is inadequate. Forecasting, therefore, is vitally important to state the dimensions of future traffic demands.” The assumption underlying the forecasting approach was that a measurable relationship exists between land use and the amount and distribution of traffic. ”Since land use 31bid., p. 5. l’lbid. U6 can be predicted with some assurance, future traffic demands can also be predicted."5 This meant that a land use survey was needed, as well as an inventory of existing transporta- tion facilities (to determine the carrying abilities of all major routes and mass transportation systems in the study area). These data provided the basis for computing the additional transportation facilities to be constructed to overcome existing deficiencies and to meet growing demands. A clear statement of the planning process, as viewed by the CATS'authors, follows: The steps leading from the accumulation of facts to a completed plan involve, essentially, forepagting p;- ban gpowth, simulating the traffic consequences of this growth and, finally, measuring the impact of this traffic growth on existing and proposed transportation systems. Estimating urban growth and simulating future travel might be compared to the engineering of an advanced rocket. Here, design by trial and error is too expensive:'there- fore, tests are made using small scale models. Sometimes rocket flights are simulated using electronic computers. In the case of cities, scale models with miniature ve- hicles and people cannot be built and operated, but the consequences of growth can still be simulated by a variety of techniques and the results observed. In these pro- cesses lie the mechanics which provide the basis for care- ful planning. ' Population estimates are the beginning point for estimating future land use: they indicate the magnitude of urban growth. A population forecast, expressed in terms of families, can be used dipectly in the process of estimatin the cunt of land which will be developed for residential purposes. PopuIation data, however, can- not be used readily to provide estimates of employment in commercial or industrial activities. Economic projections had to be prepared, therefore, and from these the number of workers in each industry type could be derived. 5Ib1dc , p. 6. it? Both population and employment estimates were matched against data provided by the land use inventory in order to estimate the locations of activities and their land requirements. The location of future residential and nonresidential activities had to be estimated be- cause the pattern of future travel depends upon the loca- tion as well as the kind and intensity of land uses. The land use survey showed that there were significant spa- tial regularities in the proportions of land in different’ uses, in density of development, and in percentage of development. Using these facts, then, residential popu- lation and nonresidential activities were destributed throughout the study area in their most probable future locations. The actua planni g of ne transportation facilitie is not done on a clean slate: the process, rather, is one of successively imposing limits within which the solu- tion must be found. Existing expressways, boulevards and transit lines are one set of limits. Land uses (such as housing developments, industrial districts and commer- cial centers) impose other limits. The forecasts of future traffic demands fix the magnitude of the Improvements which mustibe made. Finally, objectives and standards control the squtions greatly. Even within such limits, it is possible to ar ive at more than one solution. Further, there is no way of knowing whether any proposed plan would, in fact, do the job which it is designed to do if planning stopped at this stage. Therefore, the two or three planned transportation systems which seem best must be tested to see whether they will actually carry the loads which future land uses are bound to_generate.6 (Underlining added. A somewhat resigned attitude is apparent in the CATS explanation of growth: Why has the Chicago area developed in this particular fashion? One reason is the raw fact of growth itself. From a small settlement at the mouth of the Chicago River, the urbanized area has grown out steadily in all direc- tions . . . . Growth has been horizontal rather than ver- tical, because it evidently has been found cheaper, in this area, to absorb new lands into urban uses rather than to build up into the air. With faster and more versatile transportation provided by the automobile, agricultural and vacant lands are being absorbed at an increasing rate and at lower densities. 61b1dc' pp. 6-80 48 This is growth be accretion. Each new subdivision and each new commercial and industrial area, is influenced by the great mass of the existing city, with no real prospect of breaking away from old patterns to start new ones. [This statement is footnoted in the report as follows: ”It takes a tremendous thrust of energy analogous to the launching of a satellite, to break away from the mass of an old city to start a new pattern of urban develop- ment. Perhaps only governments an do this, as in the case of the British new towns."7E Further, ”all of the problems of transportation today will be made more acute by the growth of the Chicago area . . . . The problem, therefore, is to anticipate future demands for travel over a sufficiently long period of time. . . . A forecast of future travel is thus an essential ingredient for the layout and planning of future transportation networks."8 Thus, the authors are firmly convinced of the need for projected data. In Volume II, a thorough description of the considerations made in preparing forecasts is presented. This is an especially commendable procedure in that the reader is given an opportunity to follow the reasoning and consequently can make an evaluation of the techniques. The reader is made aware at the outset that the forecasts are not expected to ”agree exactly with the actual conditions of 1980." This situation arises because ”there is now no generally accepted theory of how metropolitan regions grow and change. Lacking this theory, special effort has been made to identify each assumed active ingredient and relate it to other aspects of 71bid., p. 14. 8Volume II, p. 1. 49 urban growth. Care is taken to spell out the relationships of population growth to economic growth, to shifts in living patterns and thus to land uses. The land uses and the acti- vities they represent have been shown to be the crucial ele- ”9 ments identifying travel patterns. The reliability of forecasts, however, is enhanced if there is internal consistency of the estimates. The metropoli- tan region with all of its myriad activities functions in an orderly fashion. The different aspects of urban life--whether economic, land use, population, or travel-- must relate to one another. Plans are directed toward the travel needs 0 the estimated future population of 7.8 million persons rather than to the particular year 1980. If the population of the Chicago area should reach this point a few years be- fore or after the target year, it will make relatively little difference. New facilities, once planned, must be programmed at a pace consistent with the rate of growth and also with the available fiscal resources.10 It is then noted that with periodic review and revision of travel data and forecasts the plans can be kept in con- sonance. ”These checks and reviews provide the safety margins which are essential if plgps :or gilliopg o: dollgps ppyth of new facilities_gy§ to be baged upon these projection ."11 (Un- derlining added.) As to the growth rate and the timing of public facilities we find that "construction programs may be accelerated or decelerated to keep pace with growth."12 In Chapter II of the second volume the CATS researchers lay the foundation for the projection of data by scanning the region's historical development: 91pm., p. 2. 10Ibid., pp. 2-3. 11Ibid. was... “-1-!- 50 The Chicago region is a growing region--growing in population, in production of goods and services, in in- come, and in the extent of land devoted to urban uses. There is no evidence to suggest stability or decline in the next twenty years. While growth will bring new re- sources of production, wealth and manpower into the area, it also will intensify many urban problems, among which is transportation. The size of the future transportation prdblem must be estimated carefully. It is not enough to know that tomorrow's traffic prOblems will be greater than today's! quantitative estimates, indicating Just how large they will be, need to be made. A population forecast is the beginning point for this work. The scale of population growth determines, to a large extent, the growth of eco- nomic output and new land uses and, of course, new levels of transportation demand. Increases in travel demand frame the increased needs for new transportation facil- ities. It is to identify change, as well as growth, that the popu- lation and economic forecasts are prepared. . Any forecast requires the examination of the history of past growth. This provides a sense of perspective. It also points out some of the forces which produced rowth in the ast and these can be evaluated 28 to their current ower and relative im ortance in roducing future growth.1§ (Underlining added.§ Comments The CATS approach evidently assumes that growth is a natural characteristic of the Chicago region, something that should not be subjected to tampering, but should merely be identified, observed, examined, and evaluated in regard to its power to maintain itself. The misconception of growth is clearly illustrated in the analogy noted earlier, i.e., "Esti- mating urban growth and simulating future travel might be com- pared to the engineering of an advanced rocket. Here, design by trial and error is too expensive: therefore, tests are 13Ib1d., p. 5. 51 made using small scale models. Sometimes rocket flights are simulated using electronic computers. In the case of cities, scale models with miniature vehicles and people cannot be built and operated, but the consequences of growth can be simulated by a variety of techniques and the results observed. In these processes lie the mechanics which provide the basis for care— ful planning." It seems, however, that they ignored a pri- mary difference between "estimating future growth” and ”engi— neering an advanced rocket," namely, that the latter is truely purposeful plannipg, i.e., a goal is defined and a solution is sought (through testing) to reach that goal (the mission of the rocket as determined before it was designed). On the other hand, planning via the projection method is akin to studying the trends in the sizes of rockets and projecting those sizes into the future. Thus, "knowing" the size of rocket to expect in the future, the scientist can "plan” the height and distance which the rocket will travel and can therefore deduce its purpose! This is not to say that model building is not cnnstructive, for this technique can be used in testing the design of a rocket or a transportation plan for its ability to accomplish its objectives. When used in this manner models produce consequence estimates. The Buffalo Master Plan Introduction The Buffalo, New York, Master Plan was prepared under the general direction of the City Planning Board and staff by 52 the consulting firm City Planning AssociateséEast, Inc. Ini- tial work on the plan began in early 1963 and the final docu- ment was published in September 196k. The plan report is distinguished by excellent cartographic work, good organi- zation, and an attractive format. Study Approach Charles B. Diebold, Chairman of the City Planning Board, outlines his conception of the master plan in the letter to the citizens of Buffalo: This Plan formulates guidelines for all develop- ment, change, and redevelopment to be undertaken by both public and private means. The proposals contained in this Plan are based on a very thorough analysis of the forces actin on the Cit , including population, economy, resources, conditions and potential. This analysis has provided a basis fgr predictipg what the future will offer. - This Planning B ard . . . as set forth the policies by which this plan has evolved. The proposals contained herein have been reviewed in order that they reflect the goals implied by these policy decisions. This is . . . a statement of policy regarding the City's over- all development, designed to provide direction and con- tinuity to future decisions. (Underlining added.)1" Mr. Diebold's understanding of the ”forces acting on the City" is echoed in the consultant's approach to plan.making. It seems clear in the early discussion of plan development that the consultant considers growth itself to be a subject of concern to policy makers: note, for example: The City of Buffalo is predominantly built-up.. The use of the majority of its land has already been decided, and its corporate limits are fixed. Being 14City Planning AssociateséEast, Inc., Buff lo Master Plan (South Bend, Ind.: City Planning Associates, Inc., 1933), p. 11. 53 fixed in use and limited in area, any decisions re- ardin rowth and chan e in the city must involve the conversion or replacement of existing uses. If change is desirable, the opportunity for new growth must be provided through the reuse of presently built-up areas.15 (Underlining added.) and the subsequent discussion of the potentiality for addi- tional growth and the alternatives available to the city: The first step of the analysis was a determination of metropolitan potential in terms of economic and popu- lation growth. These potentials set the stage or defined the range of choice available. Therefore, it was necessary to explore a number of alternative plans in terms of their policy implications and impact on the urban scene, in order to make a judgment as to which set of alter- natives seemed most desirable and feasible in terms of community goals. It was only through this process that various goals could be tested and issues defined, in 6 order to make judgments as to a suitable course of action.1' Attention is then directed to developing an under- standing of the concept of "change,” which also appears to be on the right track: Realizing that cities, and more specifically, central cities or large metropolitan areas, are continually under- going change of one kind or another, it becomes impera— tive that the basis of the planning program reflect an awareness of these changes. The nature of change in central cities relates to changes in function. These functional changes have resulted lar- gely from the advent of high speed transportation facil- ities and a general dissatisfaction with urban environ— ments that have grown old and, in many instances, out- lived their usefulness. Because of the relatively fixed nature of the city, a planned attempt to appreciably alter the present pattern of land use poses a difficult program. In addition, the timing or rate of change becomes a criti- cal variable. A clear understanding of the type of anti- cipated changes is essential to the Plan. There are several restraints affecting the timing of land use changes. First, the long range nature of capital investments and the permanency of physical facilities are f..— *—_V *7 151bid., pp. 3-h. 161b1d., pp. 4-5. 5# in direct conflict with the ever increasing mobility and flexibility of our society. On one hand, the potential for change exists, but yet the city cannot easily pro- vide the land and/or facilities necessary to accommo- date and capitalize upon new and expanding activities. Besides the fixed nature of capital investments, there are other restraints which are placed upon the city's ability to accommodate and adapt to functional changes. The most obvious, of course, is the financial limita- tion of the city, not only to accommodate change, but to provide and maintain desirable service levels with in- creasing service demands . . . . Finally, there is the inability of the social structure to accept and adapt to necessary changes in their own.living environments . . . . The interplay of these various restraints has a critical bearing on accelerating or decelerating the rate of change within the city. The Plan is concerned with the quality of change. This aspect of change can be controlled and directed through the application of desirable standards for residential, commercial, and industrial areas, as well as for recreation, schools, and other community facilities. Finally, the Plan is concerned with the quantity of change. The structural condition of the city s build- ings coupled with their degree of functional obsoles- cence and ineffiency must be evaluated in determining the extent of future land use changes in.Buffalo.17 It is disillusioning, however, after being encouraged by the foregoing to find that the aim was to set the stage for a discussion of the trends of functional changes in the urban area (such as dispersal of certain kinds of industries and commercial enterprises, and centralization of other types) and the identification of specific areas of positive and nega- tive change, stability, and potential change.18 Thus, after announcing the need to explore growth and investigate alterna- tive plans, the planners soon get side tracked into using the ”traditional" technique of projecting population growth and 17Ib1dc' pp. 5.6. 18By inference, these classifications correspond to the fairly standardized structural condition study categories of clearance (negative change), rehabilitation (potential change), conservation (stability), and new construction (positive change). 55 distributing land use and densities accordingly. This tech- nique is made clear in at least two instances: Thus, the Plan becomes a dynamic tool constantly projecting from 20 to 25 year? in the future and tempered by new developments. 9 and more succinctly: The purpose of the population study is to examine the growth potential of the Buffalo Metropolitan Area based on past growth trends, expected future economic vitality and availability of land for development and redevelopment. The population study, together with the economic and land use studies, provided the framework for the development of the Plan. The growth potential measured in terms of the future population size, com- position, characteristics, and distribution assisted in the determination of the future space and location re- quirements of urban facilities in Buffalo.20 Likewise, economic estimates were prepared which required the making of additional assumptions regarding growth and muni- cipal policies. These are summarized as follows: In attempting to assess the economic future of the City of Buffalo, two important facts are apparent. First, the Buffalo Metropolitan Area is growing economically, and this economic growth is expected to continue. Secondly, the City of Buffalo is, for all intents and purposes, physically built-up. The logic would continue, that in order for the city to share in the economic SIOWth anti- cipated for the metropolitan area, ample space for new and expanded development must be provided within the city. A well planned and aggressively implemented public and private multi-purpose program of economic develop- ment, on a community and citywide basis, could provide the needed opportunities for new and expanded physical develop- ment which are prerequisite to Buffalo's obtaining a pro- portionate share of the economic growth anticipated for the greater metropolitan area.21 Vt 19Ib1d., p. 21. 201bid., p. 105. 211bid., p. 120. 56 Coppents Curiously, the reader cannot be sure whether or not the city's master plan objectives are embodied in the con- sultant's master plan proposals. The objectives are so broadly stated that it could be argued that almost any plan would provide a reasonable solution. There is little question in the reviewer's mind, however, that the planners gave no thought to evaluating the pros and cons of new growth in terms of accomplishing community goals. As noted at the outset by the Planning Board chairman, the forces acting on the city need to be identified in order to predict what the future will offer! Comprehensive Planning Program: Waldo, Wisconsin Introduction Waldo, Wisconsin is unique among the communities selected because of its size, a mere #03 persons in 1960, and because its comprehensive plan was prepared by an "out- side” public agency-mthe State Department of Resource Develop- menté-with 701 financial assistance. The report is concise and well organized. Notable points are the attention that is given to the statement of assumptions and the clear des- criptions of methodology. Study Approach As in the previously reviewed plans, Waldo "can ex- pect to grow, especially if its residents accept current trends and accommodate them."22 In spite of the diminutive size of 22State of Wisconsin Department of Resource Development, Waldo Wisconsin Com rehensive Plannin Pro 3gp, A Report Pre- pared by the Division of Planning (Madison: Dept. of Resource Development, 1964), p. 17. 57 the community, the planners feel the unrelenting need to project population growth and conclude that Waldo will in- crease by about 100 persons during a 20 year period. In brief, this anticipated growth translates into about 30 dwelling units at 1/3 acre each, therefore fixing the resi- dential space requirements. Industrial growth is expected to be about nil and commercial growth minimal. In preparing the population projections, three assumptions were noted: (1) that Waldo will continue to grow at a rate similar to that of the 1930-1960 period, (2) no major industry will lo- cate in the village, and (3) increasing numbers of village residents will work outside of the village. Curiously, no objectives are explicitly stated as being representative of community sentiment. In fact, the writers specifically mention only once that the village re- sidents actually have a role in developing the plan (exclu- sive of adopting the suggested ordinances to implement the plan): "The people of Waldo must decide how they want the Village to change. It will not stay the same. The choice is between just drifting or, as an alternative, preparing for growth by encouraging and guiding it through community develop- ment policies.”23 Comments The Waldo plan was apparently conceived without attempting to define community goals. but rather to follow an vi w—v—f 23Ibid. 58 implicit goal of capitalizing on the potentialities of the surroundings. There is little evidence of cooperation be- tween the community and consultant. It seems that the only contact between the decision makers and the planners was when the final report was delivered. The choice that faced the community at that point was whether to accept or reject the plan and the inherent goals. Growth again defies tampering by decision makers: its inevitability is assured! Sun City, Caligornia, General Plan Introduction Sun City, according to the General Plan, is to be a ”self-sustained, balanced, satellite city, including a re- tirement and a working community,” developed by the Sun City Development Company (a subsidiary of the Del E. Webb Cor- poration). Construction of the city began in June 1962 on a 1h,000 acre tract in southern California about 50 miles from the Pacific coast and 75 miles from both Los Angeles and San Diego. Unlike many other cities in southern California, Sun City is expected to be essentially smog free. Formulation of the general plan was the responsibility of the Planning and Research Department of the corporation. Study Approach The corporation’s overall goals and conception of the general plan are made clear in the opening discussion: The objective of the Del E. Webb Corporation in land development projects is to function not as a speculator, but as an investor who purchases properties 59 so that planned development can be undertaken within the framework of sound investment programs. To attain these objectives, it is necessary to plan carefully the potentialities of the land, matching them to the existing and future economic, social and political conditions. The general plan as presented is a flexible pattern of land use and circulation. It will serve as a guide for the long term physical development program. The goal of this program is the creation of a retirement community that will offer all the amenities needed to live an active and fruitful life of retirement: and working com- munity with a sound economic base that will support the projected population. It will further provide housing and supporting services necessary to establish a well rounded, balanced, and stimulating environment.2 As a foundation for planning, the analysts first made an assessment of the potential market for the kind of housing the corporation intended to build. Population growth trends for southern California were investigated with parti- cular attention being given to the "over 50" age group. Al— though the primary market for Sun City retirement housing is expected to be the five county southern California region, the developer anticipates a large share of the retirees to come from other parts of the nation. From previous experience in building retirement communities, the corporation had accumu- lated some useful information regarding he characteristics of people that were attracted to such developments. Thus, the researchers were able to deduce that the market was substan- tial and demand was increasing steadily. No attempt was made to project population growth trends for the area in which the 2”Del E. Webb Corporation, Sun City, California, Q§neral Plan (A Report Prepared by the Planning and Research Department, Del E. Webb Corporation, undated), p. 3. Use of the expression "projected population" in the above quotation refers to the approximate planned population or holding capa— city when all phases of the Sun City development have been com- pleted. In effect, it is a consequence estimate. 60 Del Webb property was located and then draw plans for Sun City based on those figures. The next step was to assess the potential attractive- ness of the Sun City development for industry. In this dis- cussion, the analysts briefly present their understanding of the growth process: The most prominent pattern of regional growth indi- cates that people follow economic opportunity. Growth begins when business decisions are made to locate in a given area and compete in outside markets. By adding job opportunities in outside market activities, workers are attracted to an area. Payrolls increase total income and stimulate investment in local market activities. Briefly, jobs attract people who create more jobs. To analyze the true industrial potential for this site, it is necessary to begin with the examination of indus- trial growth in the Southern California area. It is through this sustained expansion and concurrent geo- graphic dispersal that the feasibilit of an industrial base for Sun City becomes apparent.2 It is interesting to note that they find that indus- try in the region is despersing geographically because of ”high urban costs, congestion, and smog." To continue, .When the economic base of a metropolis undergoes sustained expansion-use has been demonstrated for Greater Los Angeles-~there emerges a set of economic conditions that tend to raise some costs of production. First, industrial land values rise as the larger par— cels are developed and occupied. . . . Second, there is strong tendency for wage rates to move upward under the combined influences of industrial specialization, shifts in the structure of local industry, and the heightened activity of trade unions. Personal and real property taxes increase as a result of what must be termed the social cost of crowding. Air pollution, traffic conges- tion, and lowered productivity rates are companion effects. Industrial growth depends on the ability to gain or pre- vent loss of the competitive position of existing firms-- or the attraction of new firms. When the costs of land, labor and other inputs begin to rise, lower cost regions gain comparative advantages which tend to make them more attractive. It becomes clear that the key element in the industrial expansion of Southern California and the effect on the Sun City potential will be geographic dispersal. 25lbid., p. 10. 61 The reasons for this trend are headed by lower indus— trial land prices, lower site preparation cost, lower taxes and more competitive wage rates. Often, big city traffic results in shipment costs higher than those re- sulting from a move to a rural area. Even when shipment costs increase, other savings generally more than offset them. New firms considering metropolitan locations will be diverted inland by the inherent disadvantages of the Los Angeles area, especially smog and traffic congestion. Unique plus factors for the Sun City area are the almost total absence of these two nuisances. It is generally agreed that industrial growth in the metropolis will continue-abut it will be in those lines of activity where market potential and price structures can bear the costs of increasing land prices, taxes, and labor rates, and still yield satisfactory profit ratios. Many industries must find lesg expensive peripheral loca- tions if they are to survive. 6 After the general review of the economic growth and outlook for the region, the corporation began to look for a site that met the following criteria: 1. Suitable climate (warm the year around, smog-free). 2. Proximity to metropolitan markets, beaches, moun- tains, desert resorts. 3. Sufficient acreage for a sound investment pro- gram (deemed to be 10,000 acres or more). 4. Plentiful water supply. 5. Readily available utilities. 6. Accessibility to major traffic artery and railroad. An intensive study was conducted of large land holdings in southern California. A.13,889 acre site was acquired and a a general plan prepared based on (1) a set of standards aimed 26Ibido, pp. 13-1“. 62 at satisfying the unique needs of the retirement community, and (2) the neighborhood unit theory in designing the working community. The ultimate development was expected to house about 106,000 persons. Comments This is a case in which the planning agency had al- most complete autonomy in preparing its plan and implementing its proposals. Although unlike municipal planning in some respects, the Sun City appraoch incorporates a more realistic view of community growth and community planning. The pro- jecting technique was unused in this instance because there was no population base to begin with (and thus nothing to pro- ject) and, secondly, because the city was a planned business venture which had to satisfy the corporation's profitability objectives, i.e., a reasonable return on the investment was to be expected. The Fremont, California, Sketch Plan Introduction Fremont was formed in 1956 when five rural communities elected to incorporate, thereby creating one of the state's largest cities in area (96 square miles). Its population at that time was about 22,000; now, 10 years later, it approaches 90,000. Planning in general, and the General Plan in parti- cular, have been important political issues since Fremont°s founding. Within its first year it had adopted a General Plan and its City Council had pledged itself to supporting the 63 inherent policies in moving toward the overall goal of building a “balanced community.” At the outset the city sought the assistance of the widely known consulting firm, Harold F. Wise and Associates, whose senior planner Sydney Williams was destined to play a major role in the city's planning activities. Under the directorship of Roy Potter, Fremont be- came a testing place for new concepts in land development. In 1962 Fremont received the American Institute of Planners‘ first Award for Outstanding Achievement in Comprehensive Planning. The city is now in the midst of a major revision and extension of the General Plan (the original plan did not de- signate land uses for the entire 96 square miles). The nearly $200,000 two-year program, financed in part by an Urban Planning Assistance Program grant, makes use of the planning services of Williams, Cook & Mocine. At a November 1965 joint meeting of the Planning Commission and the City Council, the consultants made their initial presentation of "Sketch Plan.Alternatives," which were reviewed, discussed, and subsequently portions synthesized into a preliminary Sketch Plan. It is this preliminary Sketch Plan that is re- viewed herein. Study Approach The Sketch Plan is viewed by the consultants as a ”working hypothesis which will be tested and refined during 64 the course of studies," a point of departure for eight area studies and several functional element studies (i.e., trans- portation, utilities, etc.). The principal function of the plan is to show "proposed relationships between land uses and circulation, and furnish approximate holding capacities for the City's residential areas."27 Councilmen and Planning Commissioners were told at the November meeting that an indication of preference for basic concepts was needed to provide direction for preparation of the basic Sketch Plan. Further, A decision on the Sketch Plan (as a general policy guide for future City) is, therefore vital to both the traffic study and the eight area studies. Within limits imposed by population and economic projections, there is still wide latitude as to what form the Sketch Plan. and hence the future City, should take. The choice of the City's form is general, and can only be made by the community concerned through the will of the people as expressed by the policy-makers, the Planning Commission and City Council. The role of the Cons lt ts is to resent by suitable means, the available choices within the prescribed para- meters digtated by economic constraints and populatggp projections. The Consul ants are making recommendations amongst the available choices based on their professional knowledge and experience, but the final decisions on the Sketch Plan, can and must only be made by the Planning Commission and the City Council.28 (Underlining added.) The consultant's list, curiously, the following as basic assumptions: Although the future state of the City will be con- siderably influenced by social, economic, and political forces, it is considered as a basic tenent (sic) that the_Cipy has the right and the means to decide its future form and destipy. 27City Planning Commission, Fremont, California, Report on Items to be Considered! Meeting of January 12, 1266, Item 3: feview of Proposedr201 Sketch Plan by the Planning Commigsion, p. 3a. 28Williams, Cook & Mocine, Memorandum For Presentation of Concepts gpd Sketch Plgpiglternatives, November 23, 1965, p. 1. 65 The vehicle for deciding its future form is the General Plan and its accompanying policy statements, but planning in a dynamic world with changing conditions, cannot achieve the objective of a desired future state for the City, in any single planning program. Planning must be regarded as a continuous process with the current 701 Planning Program being but one stage, not a final end product. Fremont will change in the future from a present pre- dominantly low density residential community of detached homes, which emphasizes the social and environmental ad- vantages of suburban living, to a high density urban com- munity living predominantly in apartments with a much greater density, diversity, and sophistication of life style. Although this is unlikely to occur, given pre— sent inputs, by the Sketch Plan date of 1990, the poli~ cies should be directed to ensure that this transition will be affected in a rational manner and at a rate over time which will reflect the current social goals of its people. The Sketch Plan as presented for approval assumes a time horizon of 25 years, reflecting the intended physical form of Fremont in the year 1990. This will give a hold- ing capacity of 325,000 within the existing City limits or 375,000 within the proposed planning area excluding incorporated areas. These fi res re esent a reasonable E i 1 allocation of the Copp y s projected gpowth during the next 25 years . . . . Longer than a 2 year look into the future results in an accellerating loss of valid criteria on which to base a General Plan, iven the resent State of the rt of Planning. Beyond 2 years or one generation, demographic, social and technological variables become virtually un- predictable along with a rational basis to evaluate the future political values of such a community. Needed pre— sent decisions on the future should therefore, in the Consultants' judgement, be based on the desired form of the City for 1990, on which a reasonable ex ectation exists to be able to predict and formulate. 9 (Underlin- ing added.) Comments In a seemingly logical presentation the consultants have managed to advance some contradictory statements. On the one hand they affirm that the City's decisionamakers have the 29City Planning Commission, Fremont, California, op. cit., p. i, Addendum to Item 3. 66 right and means to decide what its future form and destiny will be. On the other hand the city's choices are limited and ”dictated by economic constraints and population projections." It is especially disheartening to find that the consultants list as basic assumptions some points that are not assumptions, but bona fide policy issues, e.g., "Fremont will change in the future from a . . . low density residential community of de- tached homes . . . to a high density urban community living predominantly in apartments." It is evident from the above viewpoint that the "present State of the Art of Planning" is somewhat archaic. The Comprehensive City Plan of Port Aythur, Texas Introduction The Port Arthur, Texas, Comprehensive Plan was pre- pared for the City Planning and Zoning Commission in 1961 by the nationally known St. Louis, Missouri consulting firm, Harland Bartholomew and Associates. Typical of reports compiled by this firm, the Port Arthur plan is characterized by an air of formality, generally good cartographic work, thorough statistical tables, and an apparent attempt to factually substantiate recommendations. Stud roach Growth causality, in a general sense, is mentioned early in the report. Nevertheless--and disregarding the trite statement that ”The CITIZENS of Port Arthur have the power to determine whether the future community will be one 67 in which they will be proud to live and rear their children or whether it will become a nondescript, inefficient, and unattractive city"--the planners assure that growth will not be a subject to befuddle the decision makers: The Comprehensive Plan is designed to guide the development of Port Arthur during the next 25 years. The purpose of this chapter is to estimate the pro- 12W deST te the probable and appropriate location for this expected growth. The arrangement of residential, commercial, and industrial land uses and related parks, streets, schools, and other public facilities depends upon results of the population studies, for there is a definite relation- ship between the amount of land needed for urban pur- poses and the number of people residing in the community.30 (Underlining added.) A population estimate for Port Arthur is derived by assuming that the city will continue to increase at a constant percentage of the urban area's growth, that the urban area will continue to increase at a constant pro- portion of the Jefferson County growth, that the county will continue to increase at a constant proportion of the state's growth, and that the state will continue to increase at a constant percentage of the nation's growth. This is the apportionment technique. Thus, "based upon the average rate of change between the population of the United States and Jefferson County, the latter should attain a population of 587,u80 by 1985. The population estimates derived for the urban area and for Port Arthur as part of the urban area, 30Har1and Bartholomew and Associates, The Comprehen- sive City Plan, Pgrt Arthur Texas (St. Louis: Harland Bartho- lomew and Associates, Sept. 19 1 , pp. 1 and 12. 68 i.e., 248,500 and 150,840, were used in the Comprehensive Plgp."31 (Underlining added.) What is to become of the future residents who have been presaged for the community? The consultant solves this perplexing problem by proposing a generally even distribution of persons throughout the areas that are most suitable for residential development. The remaining tracts, which are not suitable for urbanization, "should be devoted to some non- residential use.” The consultant finds, however, that there ”is not sufficient area within the present corporate limits of Port Arthur to accommodate the anticipated increase of 80,630 persons by 1985 . . . . This is also true of the urban area as a whole.” Therefore, a recommendation is made for the distribution of 242,380 persons in the urban area. "The remaining 6,120 persons of the anticipated growth by 1985 can be expected to locate outside the [planning7 area . . . but within the urban area."32 The accuracy with which the planners determine future land requirements is remarkable. Based upon the assumption that "during the next 25 years the total amount of land used per 100 persons . . . will increase from 10.92 to 17.11 acres," it becomes a simple matter to conclude that T a total of 29,515.81 acres of land will be required for urban uses to accommodate the estimated 1985 population. After an increase of 19,312.97 acres over the present 10,202.84 acres of developed land, there will be 3,693.11 acres of va- 311b1d., pp. 12-13. 321b1d., p. 17. 69 cant land remaining within the corporate limits when the estimated population is reached."33 Comments Little can be said about this report that has not already applied to the previously reviewed documents. The planners continue to exhibit an unawareness or unconcern for the causes of growth, and choose to perpetuate growth through a lack of understanding of the workings of the urban socio- cultural system. W Except for the Sun City plan, a common thread runs through all of the plans herein reviewed: all make use of the projection technique in an attempt to establish a kind of ”bench mark" or ”datum plane” for sealing land use plans. The actual mathematical method of projection or its avowed accuracy is of little consequence here, nor is it signifi- cant whether population trends or economic (usually employ- ment or income) trends are projected. The point of contention is the logic of such prognosticating with the intention of establishing a level of future demand for urban space and municipal services. Recalling the preceding chapter, it is apparent that the attitude of the planners has been to consider urban growth not as a socio-cultural process which can be directed by social action, but as a deterministic phenomenon typical of 33Ib1d., p. 26. 7O inorganic and organic systems. A statistically consistent or natural order is thereby attributed to the meaningful re-- lationships of socio-cultural systems. Because of this methodology, community decisionémakers may be disfranchised of their legal responsibilities to the citizenry to act in the best interest of the community in fostering a humane living environment. This aspect will be treated more fully in the following chapter. No special attempt was made in this research to ferret out a few plans that illustrated the point of the discussion. The projection approach is so widely used that it has become a tradition in a relatively young profession. No indictment of particular persons or places was intended in this discussion. An indictment was intended, however, of illogical planning methodology. In creating Sun City, the Del E. Webb Corporation fellowed a logical course of action that presumably resulted in a grand design which embodied its primary objectives. The project's'profitability is directly related to the attractive- ness of the community to retired persons. Its attractiveness is, of course, measured in large part by the cost of housing, the environmental amenities offered, and the efficiency of the land use pattern. Surprisingly, this approach to community planning is uncommon in the public sphere. CHAPTER IV PLANNING TECHNIQUES REGARDING GROWTH AND THEIR POLICY IMPLICATIONS Although urban planning is in it infancy as a pro- fession, certain techniques seem to have become firmly en- trenched in the comprehensive planning process. Projec- tions of population and economic trends, illustrated in the previous chapter, have virtually become traditional as a basis for establishing the size of the city in the ”fore- seeable future,” as the familiar phrase goes. Once the planner has gazed into the crystal ball, via projections, and foreseen the ”imminent space needs" of the urban area, then comprehensive planning becomes a matter of creating a land use plan which contains appropriate allocations of land for fulfillment of those "needs." In the course of creating that plan a number of special studies are generally carried out, e.g., schools, utilities, parks and recreation facilities, circulation, and various public facilities, and in each in- stance the space requirements are established by relating a set of planning standards to a forecast of city size. As will be shown in subsequent discussion, this is planning in only a very limited sense. Occasionally an additional technique--either cost- 71 72 revenue or benefit-cost analysis-~is used as a supplement to the predictive approach: both kinds are emplOyed to weigh the economic feasibility of proposed plans. A subtle difference exists between the two methods. In cost-revenue analysis, the tax benefits derived from a particular kind of land use are weighed against the costs of providing municipal ser- vices to that land use area. The benefit-cost analysis im— plies that non-economic benefits and costs may be considered in the assessment of a plan proposal. The consequences of using either of these supplementary methods is that the policy- makers are led into the trap of encouraging only those forms of land use which are shown to be economically practical. These techniques will be reviewed in greater detail in the latter part of this chapter. The Forecasti roach Backgpound Projection methodology, including the latter-day attempts to view the city as a system and define models of the relationships of its components in order to simulate community change, probably appears in 95 percent or more of recent municipal planning programs. Not only does it appear, but it is typically employed for the purpose of establishing a level of future demand for public and private facilities and services. Future population estimates may be derived by any of dozens of methods, but five are, perhaps, in widest use in 73 urban planning: (1) cohort-survival method, (2) migration and natural increase method, (3) apportionment methods, which provide forecasts based on estimates of larger geographical areas, (4) estimates based on conversion of employment fore- casts, and (5) mathematical and graphical projection methods. Descriptions of all of these techniques are found in F. Stuart Chapin's Urban Land Usepzlanning, a volume that has been selected for use as a textbook in many of the univer- sities which offer an urban planning curriculum.1 That is, in fact, a prime reason for the perpetuation of forecasting in comprehensive municipal planning. Widespread dependence upon the projection of popu- lation and economic trends as a basis for "systematically anticipating" and "adjusting the physical environment” no doubt stems from attempts to emulate the techniques of modern-day business enterprise planning. It is conceptual- ized that the city is a municipal corporation and may, there- fore, legitimately adopt effective business procedures for use in urban planning. The management of both public and private institutions, regardless of an organization's size, must necessarily be concerned with the preparation of short- and long-range operating plans as guides to assist day—to-day 1F. Stuart Chapin, Jr., Urban Land Use Plannin (New York: Harper & Brothers, 1957), Chapter 7, pp. 152-190. A second edition was published by the University of Illinois Press, Urbana, Illinois, in 1965. In a book review written by J. Brian McLoughlin in The Town Planning Review, Oct. 1965, it is stated that Chapin's first book "commanded wide respect as a balanced manual on a subject of great value both to the teacher and the practitioner in planning.” He describes the second edition as the ”best text available on this central subject." 74 decisiondmaking. Forecastipg in Business EnterprigggPlanning.—4Edward J. Chambers defines two categories of factors that determine the success or failure of a business establishment: internal and external. The internal factors are those over which the management has rather close control. These include quantities of material ordered and processed, methods of marketing, personnel arrangements and employee benefits, the product mix, allocation of costs to products, centralization versus decentralization of operations, organizational structure and the effective- ness of administration, additions to replacement or liquidation of capital assets, retention of earnings and the proportion paid out as dividends. Though management does not possess complete freedom of action in implementing policies in these areas of business operation, each area may be regarded as relatively independent of external influences, though, of course, in our highly complex and interdependent society very feW'matterg are completely insulated from the outside world. In contrast, the external factors are those over which management has relatively little control. Firms in many industries are sensative to the level and the rate of change in total economic activity. They are affected by the aggregate changes in business activity on a national scale and by what is described as ”certain external social, 3 political, and regulatory factors." Thus, decisions over 2Edward J. Chambers, Economic Fluctuation and Fore- castin (Englewood Cliffs, N. 5.: Prentice-Hall, Inc., 1961) p- 357- 3As examples Chambers cites: "Collectiveabargaining procedures covering wages and supplementary benefits in contracts negotiated by management and union in an important industry frequently exert an influence upon negotiations in other areas of business. Changes in the tax structure and in the direction and composition of government expenditure often have direct significance for the business unit. The international situation is still another factor that may profoundly influence business behavior." Ibid., pp. 328-329. 75 which company management has little influence may have a substantial effect on sales, profits, and the availability of credit and capital, and consequently they provide the rationale for the use of forecasts as a means of assessing the influence of the "external factors." Forecasts are not, however, used as a means for relieving management of respon- sibility. Fundamentally, the success or failure of an enter- prise will be determined by good and intelligent manage- ment. This receives expression in controls for coordina- ting objectives, effective policies, and reasonable operating decisions in the areas of production, distri- bution, and finance. No matter how adequate the predic- tions of general business conditions and of market poten- tial that management receives, if these cannot be trans- lated infio operations, the enterprise is not going to succeed. Forecasting economic trends and developments is frequently applied to several levels of activity, e.g., the aggregate level or national scale, the regional level, and the local level. Because of the interrelated nature of economic activities, local and regional conditions cannot be divorced from an appraisal of the total level of business activity. In practice, The forecasting function within the enterprise follows in a concise and logical sequence beginning with the appraisal of current aggregate and regional business conditions and an assessment of the economic outlook. Once the state of the market environment has been established, it is possible to forecast conditions in a particular industry. The final step is the development of a forecast of company experience upon the appraisal of aggregate and industry anticipations. “Ibid., p. 330. 76 The very heart of this whole matter is that the challenges to effective business operation are external as well as internal. The business enterprise operates in and must continuously adapt itself to changes in an environment. This environment is dynamic, not static, and it consists of a complex of market and nonmarket forces. Changes are the essence of the environment in which business operates, and this means that the consequences of present actions are uncertain. There is a need for . . . explicit formulation of the external factors upon which actions are based.5 Useful techniques for economic forecasting include: historical analogy, econometric models, and specific polls and programs. The opinion poll methodology generally makes use of a survey of the opinions of selected responsible persons. The composite information that is derived from the survey may then be accepted as the "most prObable course of business" and serves as a useful input for assessing the external factors. Examples of this kind of forecasting are the periodic surveys of businessmen's expectations conducted by Dun & Bradstreet and the Dodge Statistical Reporting Service.6 The historical analogy technique forecasts business conditions based on past business-cycle experience. Using the relationships derived from analysis of previous experience, the forecaster assumes that a similar sequence of activities will happen in the future. There is, of course, ”no guarantee whatsoever that what has happened in the past will always be a reliable guide to the future course of economic activity." 51b1d., p. 332. 6As a business forecasting technique, Chambers indica- tes that the opinion poll of business anticipations is treated with skepticism. Among the shortcomings of this approach are (a) the assumption that there is a cause-an-effect relation between group opinion and actual future business activity, and (b) the frequent reliance of respondents upon common published information sources and, thus, the poll results were not an averaging of independent responses. 7T'k4r! n thl 77 Nevertheless as an economic indicator this kind of reasoning is sometimes employed. The econometric model according to Chambers has been rather unsuccessful as a forecasting method. In model build- ing an attempt is made to explicitly define the functional relationships between significant economic variables and to use this information in forecasting future levels of busi- ness activity. Walter Hoadley considers the greatest advan— tage of the econometric approach to be in the discipline of mathematical treatment, which requires careful selection of key variables and consistency of result.8 Among the short- comings of this method are (a) the great number of variables, and (b) the difficulty of mathematically treating non-economic variables, e.g., psychological and political. Regardless of the technique used, forecasting is widely accepted in business planning as a means for corpora- tion management to develop a sensativity to the changing (external) environment in which it must operate. Forecastipg in social sciepce research.—2Another rea- son for the common usage of predictive methods derives from a recent emphasis by students of human society to formulate-- by means of objective, quantitative, and experimental research-- a science of human relations or social science. Although there are many intangibles and less-controllable variables in the human laboratory, sociologists have devised methods for measuring with reasonable accuracy the regularities of human 8Ibid., p. 342. 78 action. Sociologist Charles E. Rothwell of Stanford Univer- sity points out that ”by means of statistics, the handmaiden of quantitative investigation, they [Eocial scientist§7 have been able to convert their observations of human phenomena into reasonably reliable formulas."9 Thus, from the viewpoint of the sociologist, fore- casts of observed regularities of human interaction may serve a useful function in planning and policyemaking. Projections can emphasize that the situation to be met by social action is not static but involves a complex sequence of decisions. Stated another way, the future urban pattern will be formed by decision-makers acting to achieve community objectives by altering, as necessary, the policies which played a role in creating present urban patterns. A recent outcome of this emphasis on mathematical expression is the current activity in model construction as an approach to understanding various components of the urban system. A model is an explicit statement of the struc- ture or relationships that are expected in any mass of data. A principal shortcoming in this approach, however, is the inability of social scientists to fruitfully apply "metrical techniques to qualitative data." Hilgard and Lerner elaborate on this methodological concern in this paragraph from Th2 Policy Sciences: Frequency analysis of qualitative variates present us with a sampling distribution of individual decisions 9Charles Easton Rothwell, ”Foreward,“ The Polic Sciences: Recent Develo ents in Sec e and Method, eds. Daniel Earner and HaroId P. EassweII ( t d S anfor University Press, 1951), p. viii. 79 (e.g., the separate yes-no decisions of individuals to commit suicide which, collated along some space—time continuum, gives us a ”suicide rate”). This is quite different from the sampling distribution of ppgpgppgpp which we derive from frequency analysis of quan itative variables (e.g., fluctuation of temperatures or prices). One is not, obviously, inherently inferior to the other as a source of scientific data: but the two are different. The number language of mathematics and statistics has been adapted more readily to talk about magnitudes than about decisions: and the latter has suffered from mis- use of techniques developed by the former.10 Similarly, Dennis O'Harrow, Executive Director of the American Society of Planning Officials, states ”Repli- cation in social science is notoriously difficult, and because replication is less often possible than in physical or natural science, the reliability of a pronouncement in social science is more often questionable."11 In spite of these, and other cautious remarks, planners have been quick to assume that replication or duplication of events is assured, at least in the areas of population growth and continuation of economic trends. Implications and Shortcomipgs Because the urban planner may not clearly identify the assumptions on which his methodology is based, or understand the implications of his techniques, it is conceivable that municipal policydmakers will not have a complete awareness of' the ramifications of their actions. The planner, of course, cannot precisely anticipate the outcome or effectiveness of 10Ernest R. Hilgard and Daniel Lerner, ”The Person: Subject and Object of Science and Policy," The Policy Sciences, Ibid., p. 29. 11Dennis O'Harrow, ”Replication: or Double the Trouble," ASPO Newsletter, February 1966, p. 9. 80 his plan proposals. He should, nevertheless, endeavor to be as thorough as possible in investigating the implications of his recommendations. The serious implications of using an illogical technique are briefly demonstrated in the following paragraphs. Socio-cultural phenomena are mechanistic.-—Underlying the use of projections is the assumption, mentioned in ear- lier discussion, that social processes are subject to fairly rigid natural laws. According to this perspective, planning is truly a science. It acknowledges that social phenomena follow stable, quantifiable patterns similar to the relation- ships that scientists have observed in studies of inorganic and organic systems. This is, then, an expression of the dogma of determinism and,necessarily, is a refutation of the important role of human volition in determining the course of socio-cultural events. Sanford S. Farness, Professor of Urban Planning at Michigan State University, stresses that the forecasting of ”future needs" dehumanizes planning and environmental develop- ment and indicates "ignorance of the profound differences between inorganic, mechanical systems: biological systems: and human socio-cultural systems.'12 Further, although the settlement pattern is clearly I'the external expression of man's purposes,” the employment of forecasting procedures in community planning represents a denial that human thinking and action are primary causal factors in the creation of our 12Sanford S. Farness, ”Perspectives on Environmental Planning and Resource Development,” Paper presented at the Illinois Conference on Water Resource Development, Pick- Congress Hotel, Chicago, September 15, 1964, p. 10. 81 material environment and in defining our problems and ”needs."13 Projections obscure this causal relationship by letting growth trends define our future problems and establish municipal space allocations for various human activities. Bigpess is a virtue.--Inherent in the employment of predictions of urban growth is the assumption that there is no reasonable limit on urban size or scale, that infinite expansion is the order of the day. Elmer T. Peterson aptly calls this prevailing attitude "the theorem that, if large aggregations . . . are good, larger and larger aggregations, to an infinite degree, are still better."1u He also con- tends that up to the present time there has been a tendency to accept, almost without question, the theorem that bigness is in itself virtuous. First we worshipped the bigness of the country, the Great Lakes, the Grand Canyon, the Rockies, the giant redwoods. Well and good. Then we unconsciously transmuted this worship to man-made things-~the biggest wheat crops, the biggest factories, the tallest buildings, cities with the biggest population. . . . The bigger-city complex has become a ruling passion and a national cult and folklore."15 This philosophy is commonly encountered in the United States and can probably be attributed not so much to a transmuta- tion of man's worship for natural things to mandmade things as it is to man's striving to fulfill the widening scope of material desires created by an uncontrolled increase in popu- 13Ib1d. 14Elmer T. Peterson, ”No Blueprint for Utopia,” Cities Are Abnormal, op. cit., p. 254. 151b1d., p. 251. 83 lation. As populations mount and individual desires broaden, the profit motive and increasing demand for goods stimulate business enterprises to attempt to satisfy that demand. Thus, an increasing burden is placed on man's natural environ- ment while a large and influential part of the community is hoping to profit from expansion. Julian Huxley observes: The general attitude of all industrialized countries, whether capitalist or communist, is primarily a quanti- tative one. In both, though perhaps especially in capi- talist countries, the general attitude is that increase in economic growth rate or production is somehow in itself a good thing irrespective of its consequences. In the last few decades, especially in the United States, increased consumption is being encouraged because it is supposed to increase the economic growth rate and pep-up production in general. This is the principle of consumer- ism. . . . Similarly we have to get away from the idea that mere quantity of people is necessarily a good thing. My general conclusion is that what people are for is to achieve a higher quality of life.16 Another vehement opponent of Our "bigger the better" culture is Sorokin, who finds that this prevailing attitude of "quantitative colossalism" is a symptom of disintegration of our contemporary culture. Using some historical examples to emphasize his hypothesis, Sorokin senses that man is sub- stituting quantitative expansion for qualitative values. Qual- ity is more often measured by the number of copies sold or by the size of an object rather than by judgment of its inner value: quantity and external glitter have become the criteria W w. fiv—i 16Julian Huxle , The Human Crisis (University of Washington Press, 1963 , pp. - . 84 for determination of quality. Sorokin's conception of our ”sensate culture” is strongly expressed in the following pass- age, extracted from The Cgisis of Our Age: External glitter and quantitative colossalism al— ready reign supreme in it [Eur sensate culturg7. "The bigger the better" is its motto: hence our enormous sky— scrapers, monuments, temples, school and college buildings, railroad stations, up to the monsters of Radio City and World's Fairs. Quantitative colossalism tends to become the criterion of any great value. The best business firms are those which are the hugest. The society leaders are those who are richest. The greatest empires are those which are most monstrous. The largest theaters become the best. The best show is that which attracts most people. So also the best preachers, teachers, orators, professors, ministers, and what not. The greatest scholar is he who is paid the highest salary or has the largest audience. The greatest university is that which is largest. The masterpieces of literature or art, philosophy or science, religion or politics are the best sellers bought by millions. "The biggest firm," the largest circulation," the biggest market of second-hand tires in the world" is our highest recommendation. Anything which is not big quantitatively, but is merely the finest in quality, tends to pass un- - noticed. The very standards of fine and vulgar, good and bad, masterful and clumsy, beautiful and ugly, right and wrong, wise and smart, tend to disappear as qualitative standards and tend to be replaced by quantitative criteria.17 His criticism, although perhaps somewhat exaggerated, is certainly worth serious consideration. Numerous cases may be cited in which "the best" is quantitatively measured (e.g., the leading batter in baseball, the company with the highest growth rate or largest earnings, etc.): it is not uncommon, however, to find instances of quality judged by objective opinion (e.g., an.Academy Award motion picture performance that is determined by consensus rather than box office income or num- 17Pitirim A. Sorokin, The Crisis of Our Age, op. cit., p. 255. 85 ber of viewers). Nevertheless, quantative growth has increas- ingly been given support as a general objective while quali- tative change is overlooked or judged to be of lesser impor- tance. Quantitative expansion of the city typically is mani- fested by an official policy to encourage new industries to locate in the urban area, thereby providing an economic stimu- lus which may result in population increase, a broader tax base, a more stable local economy, and greater local demand for goods and commercial services. Conversely, quantitative expansion is accompanied by increased demands for general governmental services, utility extensions, circulation facili- ties, schools and recreation facilities, and by qualitative decline through possible air and water pollution, congestion, health problems, crime, suicide, and depletion of natural re- sources and environmental amenities. This is not intended to imply that quantitative growth is always a negative value. Indeed, small communities may be unable to provide some of the amenities that residents may desire purely because the local service area is of insufficient size to allow those amenities to be economically provided. On the positive side, economies of scale and broadened opportunities with increased scale are functions of quantitative growth. In the last analysis, however, the quality of the urban environment must be fore- most in the minds of civic decision-makers and given greater emphasis in the establishment of community objectives. Economist-author Leopold Kohr concludes that the 85 bar of viewers). Nevertheless, quantative growth has increas- ingly been given support as a general objective while quali- tative change is overlooked or judged to be of lesser impor- tance. Quantitative expansion of the city typically is mani- fested by an official policy to encourage new industries to locate in the urban area, thereby providing an economic stimu- lus which may result in population increase, a broader tax base, a more stable local economy, and greater local demand for goods and commercial services. Conversely, quantitative expansion is accompanied by increased demands for general governmental services, utility extensions, circulation facili- ties, schools and recreation facilities, and by qualitative decline through possible air and water pollution, congestion, health problems, crime, suicide, and depletion of natural re- sources and environmental amenities. This is not intended to imply that quantitative growth is always a negative value. Indeed, small communities may be unable to provide some of the amenities that residents may desire purely because the local service area is of insufficient size to allow those amenities to be economically provided. On the positive side, economies of scale and broadened opportunities with increased scale are functions of quantitative growth. In the last analysis, however, the quality of the urban environment must be fore- most in the minds of civic decisiondmakers and given greater emphasis in the establishment of community objectives. Economist-author Leopold Kohr concludes that the 86 growth process in living organisms is ultimately limited in accordance with the function that the organism, or part thereof, must perform. Growth that is continued beyond the point of maturity, that is, beyond the point at which the organism is best able to perform its inherent function, no longer strengthens the organism or its functional capabili- ties, but it deforms the organism and generates additional problems. Kohr brings this concept sharply into focus with this analogy: As in the case of a woman having reached Atlantic City measurements, the burning question is therefore no longer one of further growth but one of size, of shape, of form. For rowth ha n inde endent ur ose, its sole aim being to help a thing achieve its function- Sfiiinméfiifi erISsJiZté" fiftiethiin‘figthnfieififiinéhiaed.) . . Although this theory cannot logically be carried by analogy from organic systems to socio-cultural systems, it provides food for thought regarding the possibility of optimum city size. In the organism, homeostatic controls systematically act to limit growth. In the city, however, the comparable homeostatic mechanism is the local legisla- tive body, which is subjected to "pressure" by local commer- cial interests to expand and is further convinced of the merits and inevitability of growth because its professional staff neglects to clarify growth alternatives in the preparation of community plans. In short, the "municipal homeostatic control" is inoperative because it is unaware of the potentially detrimental effects of its actions. 18Leopold Kohr, "The Economics of National Size,” Modern Age, Summer 1963, p. 220. 87 Community growth i§ an inappropriate topic for municipal policyamakers--This implication which underlies the forecasting approach to planamaking becomes apparent upon review of the planning function in municipal government as practiced in the 0.8. The central focus of municipal planning is the creation and maintenance of a general plan. T. J. Kent views the urban general plan as an instrument which serves to discipline the decisions of policy-makers in re- gard to physical development.19 The plan is a translation of a group of implicit and explicit policies into a general physical design for the community. Kent further sees the general plan as a composite of the "individual plans" of the councilmen, which have been brought into the open by means of democratic processes. First and foremost [it i§7 an instrument through which the city council considers, debates, and finally agrees upon a coherent, unified set of general, long- range policies for the physical development of a commun- ity . . . . Plan preparation enables the members of the council to . . . clarify their ideas as to the kind of community they want to create as a result as their many specific decisions [Eh day—to-day issueg7. Although viewed as a composite expression of council policies, the adopted general plan is to a large extent the 19Regardless of the form of municipal government, in a democratic society the city council is the major legislative body and final policydmaking authority. “Under a council- manager municipal government, there is no question as to the formal supremacy of the council. Under a strongdmayor govern- ment, it is true that the mayor is directly responsible to the people and that he often has a platform of broad policies and definite projects. However, the council still passes the laws, is responsible for final action on the budget and the capital improvements program, sets the tax rate, and is with- out question, the final policy-making authority." T. J. Kent, The Urban General Plan (San Francisco: Chandler Publishing Co., 19 . p- 9- 20Ibid., p. 66. 88 outcome of lengthy discussion and study involving the pro- fessional planning staff (including all participating muni- cipal departments), the planning commission, and the city council. The original draft of the plan is chiefly repre- sentative of the thinking of the staff or consulting planners. During the ensuing months of discussion prior to council adop— tion of the general plan, the document undergoes continuous alteration by the staff, commission, and council. Throughout the process the professional planner has a responsibility to the community to assure that sound professional judgment and accurate data form the basis of his policy proposals. ”He must attempt to convince the councilmen of the applica— bility and merits of his findings and recommendations. This requires that he present his advice to the council in a form which the council can readily comprehend.“21 The conscientious and responsible planner must pre- sent convincing arguments for his proposals, leaving to the planning commission and city council the task of accepting, rejecting, or modifying them. In his role as one of the prin- cipal advisors to the municipal legislature and planning com- mission, the planner must endeavor to guide and educate offi- cials, especially new members who may not be fully aware of their own roles. Important policy issues must be brought be- fore the city council in an understandable fashion so that they may be openly debated and clearly decided. The general 211bid., p. 83. 89 plan is a means through which such issues are brought before the council for consideration and determination of long- range municipal policy. Needless to say, the elected com- munity leaders must govern on behalf of the community as a whole, a task which necessarily involves development of an awareness of the public interest. By the same token, the planner in attempting to make recommendations that are in the public interest makes assumptions and value judgments that are, according to Kent, valid subject matter for public de- bate. Thus, for the planner and public administrator to assume that they are able to interpret the public interest better than the elected legislative body is to circumvent the operation of the democratic process. The honest professional advisor has an ethical re- sponsibility to his client (the municipal government) to view issues comprehensively and dispassionately, and openly ex- press his findings and recommendations. Without this attitude he fails to fulfill his professional function. Kent notes that "There will always be understandable differences of opinion and judgment among professional men. These differ- ences should be expected-~indeed, looked for and encouraged—— and should be easily and openly expressed to the council."22 An indication of the substantial influence that the professional planning staff exerts on the commission and coun- cil is found in the frequency with which these bodies accept * __ 22Ibid., p. 8. 90 the staff recommendation (and typically with abbreviated debate or questioning). Thus, as an objective, professional advisor, the plan- ner has an ethical obligation to his client to refrain from making recommendations without first exploring the consequences of his advice in terms of the stated community objectives. If the probable consequences cannot be fully anticipated then he must make his client conscious of this shortcoming. Occa- sionally the planner must openly acknowledge that he is un— able to determine on the basis of planning principles and standards the alternative which has the greatest merit. In using population or economic projections as a foun- dation for allocating municipal space, the planner has pre- determined that growth and community size are unsuitable sub- jects for consideration by local policyemakers. Yet these are imposing questions that must be explicitly resolved by the policy-makers in any comprehensive municipal planning pro- gram. Forecasting, however, pre-empts the decisiondmakers' responsibility and hides a matter of great consequence. Fur- ther, the general plan must not simply be viewed as a physical plan for spatial arrangement of land uses, but in a broader sense as an allocator of natural elements of our environment for converSion into commodities, as a means of protecting or restoring balanced ecological relationships, and as an instru- ment for creating an aesthetically pleasing environment.23 ZBSanford S. Farness, Paper presented at the Arts Festival, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, May 24, 1964, pp. 22-23. 91 These aspects are treated at greater length in Chapter V. The community and the environment will suppopt the plgp.--Closely related to the previous implication is the inherent assumption that the community is both willing and able to provide municipal facilities and services in support of a general plan that is designed to accommocate projected growth. Also assumed is the community's ability to provide financial support at a rate consistent with the projected growth trends. An further, there is an implication that the region is ecologically capable of accommodating the mag- nitude of population that is anticipated. Occasionally a city may find itself in the throes of rapid growth by virtue of its locational advantages for industry, environmental amenities which make it attractive as a ”bed— room” community, or through its overt efforts to promote ex- pansion. Typically the demand for customary municipal facili- ties and services, e.g., streets and their maintenance, storm and sanitary sewer systems, water systems, schools, police and fire protection, recreation facilities, municipal buildings, etc., greatly precedes attempts at satisfaction of the demand. Rarely, it seems, are municipal services provided simultaneously with demand or precedent to the demand: facilities are more likely to be over-used than under-used. Customarily the rapidly growing city is constantly under pressure to ”catch up," with only the remotest possibility of "getting ahead” of demand and providing a higher quality of service. Two prominent examples are Warren, Michigan, during the 1950's and Fremont, California, 92 from 1956 to 1966. Both cities rank among the fastest grow- ing in population and both have been unable to approach satis- faction of the demands (with the possible exception being the provision of school facilities and storm and sanitary sewers). Although educational institutions generally find necessary financial support, the remaining municipal services often find it difficult to garner public support at bond issue election time. A complete disregard for ecological relationships is evident in the utilization of forecasting methods. Perhaps it will suffice to say that man's very destiny and future well being are at stake when he carelessly manipulates his environment. Because of the complex and little known inter- relationships between plants and animals, natural communities can only be altered with scientific care. There is little evidence to show that the modern-day urban planner is aware of concerned about ecological concepts. lpypl.--Implicit in population and economic forecasts that are derived by means of the apportionment method is the rationale that statistical trends are as meaningful on the municipal level as they are on the national level. This technique is illustrated in the preceding chapter's discussion of the Qpp- prehensive City Plan of Port Arthur, Texag and in countless planning reports throughout the country. Because of the rela- tive accuracy that accrues to projections of national trends 93 (due partially to the size of the statistical sample, but largely to the presence of national political barriers within which all future change must take place) planners assume that projections derived for successively smaller planning units will result in relative accuracy at the local level. Each planning unit is viewed as a proportion of the next larger unit. In his presentation before the Illinois Water Resource Development Conference, Farness describes the shortcoming of this methodology: As we move down the spatial scale of imaginery planning units, from nation, to state, to region, to river basin, to metropolitan area, and to local muni- cipality, the abstraction from locational determinants permissible in overall national projections becomes less and less realistic. A point is reached at the state, regional, metropoli- tan and local urban levels where population growth, stability or decline is clearly related to public policy making and natural resource availability. At this concrete level of planning in a specific geographic, political context, population change can no lon er be derived from abstract statistical trends alone. Other Growth-Related Plannipg Technigues Benefit-Cogt Analyses Included in this category of economic analyses are those methods which attempt to weigh the benefits of a pro- ject or plan against the economic costs of implementation. Two such methods are being employed with increasing frequency: cost-revenue analysis and benefit-cost analysis. As noted earlier in the chapter, the difference between the two is subtle. 2uFarness, Conference on Water Resource Development, op. cit., p. 11. w— 94 The former is a technique that porports to scientifi- cally and Objectively disclose the kinds of land uses that should be encouraged in a given locale. In land use planning, the approach economically weighs various uses of land at varying locations and at varying densities and intensities of development.25 'By comparing the tax revenues derived from each general kind of land use with the costs of providing muni- cipal facilities and services to those land use areas, the planner justifies the encouragement of land uses which pro- vide the highest net return for the community's expended fiscal resources. Customarily this means that industrial and commercial areas and large lot, high-income residential areas provide the least drain on the municipal treasury. Using this economic yardstick, certain kinds of land uses frequently do no "measure up” as suitable elements for the urban pattern (among them: low— and middle-income housing on small lots). The latter method—ébenefit-cost analysis--attempts to express in economic terms all of the benefits and costs associated with projects throughout their full period of use and, thereby, points the way to the most.beneficial use of public monies in the course of land development. Inherent in this approach are the assumptions that: (1) projects have economic value only to the extent that a need or desire exists for their services: (2) each project should be developed at that scale which provides the maximum excess of benefits above costs: (3) every project or separable segment thereof should be developed at the least practicable cost commensurate 25Chap1n, op. cit., p. 241. 95 with the over—all objectives of the project: and (4) the development priorities assigned to various projects should follow the order of their economic desirability.26 Once a need is found to exist, the researcher con- siders the probable benefits and costs associated with pro- jects of varying size with the intention of arriving at a final decision regarding the optimum scale of development. "Projects are at optimum size when they produce more net benefits than could be secured at any larger- or any smaller- scale level."27 The project that is finally given the high- est priority is the one that, from a purely ecnnomic view- point, provides the highest ratio of benefits to costs. The obvious shortcoming in employing either of these benefit-cost analyses to evaluate specific urban plans or projects is that not all "benefits" and ”costs" can be ex- pressed in quantitative (monetary) terms. In spite of efforts to refine the benefit-cost technique, measurement of the so- called "intangible extradmarket effects” or social values re- mains an impossible task. Illustrative of the problem are Barlowe’s questions: ”How much economic value should we assign to the provision of improved fishing or hunting oppor- tunities? What is the benefit value of a scenic view or a wilderness area? What dollar value should we associate with the human lives saved by a flood control or highway improve- ment project?" 28 Assumed in each of the techniques is the 26Barlowe, op. cit., p. 485. 271b1d., p. 488. 281mm, p. 491. 96 belief that economic goals are paramount: that there is no other rational way to view and make decisions about our environment. Community Attitude Surveys A concensus of citizen attitudes toward municipal size and growth is an infrequently sought input in compre- hensive planning programs. In fact, questionnaires dis- tributed for the purpose of gaining perspective concerning wddespread community values generally omit specific queries regarding city size. A notable exception is a detailed sur- vey of community attitudes which was performed by Metropoli- tan Community Studies, Incorporated, in Dayton, Ohio, during 1959.29 In its research, the organization attempted to gain an understanding of the local attitudes by asking ex- plicit questions pertaining to the size of city that would be most desired by Daytonians and what community growth meant to them. It is common knowledge that community leaders fre- quently support policies of community expansion and indus— trial growth, chiefly because commercial interests maintain a strong voice in the local power structure. The Dayton study, on the other hand, disclosed the sentiment of a broader segment of the populace with a substantial number of respon- dents indicating a preference for keeping the city's popu- lation level relatively constant. It is not known to this 29Metropolitan Community Studies, Inc., Metro litan Challe e (Dayton, Ohio: Metropolitan Community S udies, nc-. November 1959), pp. 25-26. 97 writer, however, whether the results of the survey were ever used in a meaningful way, e.g., in developing community ob- jectives and policies. Implied in the use of community attitude surveys is the belief that the values and goals expressed by indivi- duals may be statistically combined to indicate values for the community-at-large. It is also questionable whether the respondents were sufficiently aware of the courses of action available and the ramifications of their individual goals in terms of the broader community interest. Summation Except for the little used community attitude survey, the growth-related planning techniques reviewed in this chap- ter stress economic thinking and decision-making. In em- ploying these methods the user allows the quantitative ob- jectives of monetary gain through economies of scale to override qualitative non-economic objectives in his planning process. By choosing techniques that purport scientific ob- jectivity, the planner has limited his sphere of thinking to quantifiable and measurable values. Accordingly, a distorted viewpoint is embodied in the plans which are presented to municipal policyemakers for their review and adoption. Thus, without acknowledging other kinds of decisiondmaking (ration- alities) and assuring that the policy makers are aware of the meanings embodied in the plan, the planner fails the community as a professional advisor. CHAPTER V TOWARD REVISED PLANNING METHODOLOGY The intent of the preceding chapter was to demon- strate some of the defects of commonly-used skills or tech- nical procedures which deal directly with the subject of planning municipal growth. The forecasting of community size based on historical population or economic data is a procedure that surprisingly has become firmly established as the ”correct” way in which to determine a datum from which plans to satisfy "future needs" are prepared. As supplemental techniques, benefit-cost analyses are employed to justify a plan or program on economic grounds. A less frequently used method, the community attitude survey, rarely asks pointed questions about urban growth, but it may never- theless provide helpful information for setting community goals. . Planners have been in error, however, for not closely examining these procedures and recognizing them for what they are. Projections of trends, ”conditioned by knowledge of local internal and external forces,” have heretofore been accepted as expressions of the scale of ”anticipated change" and, thus, have been used as though they were established community policies regarding growth. In reality, future urban 98 99 size becomes a community policy by viptue of never hgvipg been bpought intg the open for public debate. Trends may be extended during the course of a planning program to give an indication of posgible community size: under no circumstances, however, should they be confused with policy. ”The size of what will probably happen, given existing policies and exist- ing conditions quite often is just the stuff that leads to the need for new policy. Policies are often instituted to reverse trends.”1' Similarly, planners have neglected to take an objec- tive (impartial) attitude in performance of their professional responsibilities and have placed an unreasonably heavy em- phasis on economic thinking and decision-making. Consequently, the goals of other modes of thinking, e.g., aesthetic, eco- logical, and interpersonal, all of which are expressed quali- tatively, are nevertheless judged by reduction to quantitative terms (if they are consciously considered at all). I The shortcomings of the techniques reviewed herein logically direct us to the solution of the planner's dilemma: he must (1) recognize that his role in a democratic municipal government is predominantly advisory to the elected and appoin- ted municipal decision-makers, (2) scrap his mechanistic plan- —————‘——f 1Harold F. Wise, A P 0 ram for State Pl 1 in Michi- ggp, A Report Prepared for the Micfiigan Department of Economic Expansion (Lansing: Michigan Department of Economic Expansion, 1964), p. 12. Wise suggests further that ”a 'probable'line should be extended and examined. Then a 'possible' or 'de- sirable' line projected. The range between these lines is often illustrative of the goals statement and indiCative of desired direction.” 100 ning procedures, i.e., forecasting methods, and acknowledge that socio-cultural systems are distinct from organic and inorganic phenomena, and that man is the master of his en— vironmental fate, and (3) be conscious of the principal ra- tionalities which should be brought to bear in the design and policyamaking stages of plan preparation. To translate this broad suggestion into useful comprehensive planning tech- niques, it is necessary that a basic understanding be developed of the modes of thinking that do--or should-~come into play in municipal decision-making. Rationalities in §ocial Action Paul Diesing broadly describes "rationality“ as a kind of order or system that is understandable because of the presence of a basic governing or organizing principle (together with subsidiary principles). "Once the principle governing a system has been discovered, the system becomes intelligible."2 Each kind of rationality must be effective in producing its own kind of good on a consistent basis. In contrast, randomness or arbitrariness--the absence of prin- ciple-~13 the opposite of order. Five significant kinds of rationality are identified by Diesing: technical, economic, social, legal, and political. Each of these is reviewed in the following paragraphs. Technical rationality.--Perhaps the most widely known 2Paul Diesing, Reason In Society: Five ¥ypes of Decip sions and Their Social on one r ana, no 3: n ver- sity of Illinois Press, 1962), p. 238. 101 form of practical reason is technical rationality or the effi- cient achievement of a given end. When goal-oriented actions are regularly repeated they become standardized and formalized as techniques or ways of acting. The efficient person or organization avoids waste and tries to make complete usage of available resources and thus is able to expand his activities. Stated another way, the quantity of resources that is left over for use in other undertakings is directly related to the level of efficiency of an operation. In our culture, effi- ciency itself has become a positive value. People learn to strive for efficiency in their activities, and enjoy the sight of an efficient action or machine, even apart from any interest in the end it serves. Efficiency is maximum achievement of a given end with given resources, so it includes within itself the values of maximization and achievement. Another value is that of impartiality or detachment in the evalua- tion of a given technique. When choosing techniques, the most efficient one ought to be selected no matter what other characteristics it may have, and when grading people, their skill at the given task ought to be the only consideration . . . . The most obvious associated habit is that of dividing a productive process into parts and tracing a causal sequence through the parts. This habit is important in technical decisions, since it enables one to discover the contribution of each part of a productive process and to invent improvements.3 Economic Rationality.--Characteristic of economic ra- tionality is its order based on quantitative measurement (e.g., money, time, and calories) and comparison of values, the ulti- mate good of which is utility. Utility in an economic sense means comparative value or price of a given end. Economic thinking and decisiondmaking focus on two fundamental pro- cessess: economizing and bargaining. The former is a method 31bid., p. 11.' 102 of evaluating and selecting between alternative ends. When a person economizes he compares the possible returns for each of the competing ends in the particular situatinn and that end or combination of ends is chosen which promises to yield the greatest total return from the available resources. "A single end may be chosen over all the others, or several chosen in some proportion, or a priority scale of ends set up, or several ends arranged in a time sequence, or several different resources assigned to different ends or groups of ends."u In order for a person or organization to economize it is necessary that the alternative ends be comparable on some scale. If no objective unit of measurement exists then there is no economic way of judging the end that will produce the greatest return and, thus, no economic way to justify a choice. In such a circumstance a choice would have to be made using some non-economic rationale. Many kinds of subjective experience cannot be quantified and expressed as a money value. Bargaining, the other primary economic process, is a way of establishing terms of exchange between two or more economic units (any indviduals or groups that are able to establish a set of goals). To achieve the end of maximizing utility, each side bargains in an attempt to achieve as favorable terms as is possible in respect to its goals. Bargaining takes place in a setting of social relations and is limited by cultural norms or controls. “Ibid., p. 43. 103 Another pertinent concept is that of economic pro- gress. The chief characteristics of this concept are the gradual ”removal of moral limitations on ends and the use of means, as they are turned into commodities," and the exten- .sion of money measurement to all ends.5 Carrying this reason- ing to extreme would mean the complete development of media of measurement: dollar values could be placed on all objects, relationships, and activities. The fact remains, however, that "some values can never be treated as utilities without losing their essential characteristics as values."6 Social rationality.~éEffectiveness in social systems is the result of an order or pattern of interpersonal re- lations (shared experience). An interpersonal relation de- velops whenever two persons interact in more than a momentary way. Three components have been identified in any enduring social relationship: an action component (”the things people do together"), a feelipg component (”the feelings they ex- press and share with each other”), and a pppppppppl_pppppp§pp (”how the two people involved think of their relationship”). The latter includes beliefs (an individual's conception of how he and his partner are acting and feeling), obligations (an individual's conception of how he is expected to act and feel), and ideals (the conception of ideally desirable behavior). The total conceptual component of what each person is and 51bid., p. 47. 6Ibid., p. 64. 104 ought to be doing and feeling is called his role. When a role is shared by all members of a society it is said to be institutionalized. Accordingly, a social system, or system of social relations, is a composite of all roles in a culture, including expectations, obligations, and ideals.7 A rational social system, organization, or social re- lation is one that is integrated. "A social relation is inte— grated when the obligations, expectations, beliefs, and ideals of each role are consistent with one another and with the feelings and desires of the person taking the role, and when both roles and both sets of feelings fit together and support one another."8 Diesing clarifies the concept in the following passage: Integration is something more than both mechanical efficiency and logical consistency. The parts of a smoothly running machine or an efficient business organi- zation fit into each other, but offer no mutual support. Each part remains the same whether it is working in the machine or separated from it. The reason each part remains unchanged by its interaction is that the parts do not really act on one another, as in a social rela- tion, but merely transmit energy through one another. The distinction between a machine and a social system is that between an impersonal set of relations and a personal set, between a system of interactions and a sys- tem of transactions . . . . A person acting in an integrated system does so with confidence since his actions are consistent with tradition, his inner standards, and the expectations of others: he ex- periences a sense of belonging and inner security: life is meaningful and he is aware of his contributinn. Conversely, 71bid., pp. 65-123. 81b1de' p. 76. 9Ibid., pp. 76-77. 105 the disorganized society is characterized by meaninglessness, insecurity, and lack of confidence in the rightness of actions. Unlike the economic end of maximizing utility, shared ex- perience cannot be purchased, sold, or traded. "Social ac- tions are an expression of the self, and of its solidarity with others."10 Legal rationality.--That form of order which is appro- priate to the fundamental rules for the guidance of the mem- bers of a society is termed, by Diesing, legal order. A legal order or system of law is rational if it consistently is able to prevent or resolve disputes when other methods fail. Conflicts arise when there is overlapping of the "normative elements" that are operative in a social system, ”the day-to-day expectations, personal obligations, and com- mitments that govern.behavior. When conflicts occur, the fundamental rules are called on to resolve them by setting boundaries of validity, determining priorities, or canceling invalid norms. subgroups and organizations within a society also develop fundamental rules applying only to members and centering on the special concerns of the group."11 At its ultimate development, a legal order would con- sist of a system of rules that are applicable to a particular class or kind of situation rather than to particular situa- tions and which specify actions that are permitted or for~ bidden for that situation. For a person to act according to rule he must first classify his present situation and then 1°Ibid., p. 123. 11Ibid. 106 apply the rule established for that class. The rules should be clearly stated in order that any situation that is likely to happen may be classified precisely and unambiguously. Con- sequently, rules must be very detailed and complex to permit precise interpretation in an infinite variety of human actions. Further, not only must rules be pertinent to a particular situation, but a qualified person must be available to apply them. The necessary qualification in judicial decision- making is that the judging person be accepted as neutral on the question at issue. If it is believed that the judge is biased toward one side then the judge becomes an ordinary participant rather than a neutral decisionamaker applying superior rules. . Justice, the ultimate value produced by legal order, is commonly defined as impartiality, or fairness, or equality. Thus, a rational legal system is frequently viewed as one in which all persons are treated the same by a court. Although impartiality is a major form of justice, it is not the only form. Contractual relations (rules binding specific persons for specific purposes at specific times, or, the act of pay- ing back a specific action with another specific action) and personal relations (paying back actions with a whole range of actions over a long period of time) must also be considered in a rational socially-oriented legal code. Justice in re- solving conflicts in personal relations is not necessarily equal reciprocity (paying back one contribution with another comparable contribution). Often there is no common unit of measurement and ”inability to be exact about equivalences 107 often contributes to the diffusing and deepening of rela- tionships, since when people cannot be sure their moral debt is discharged, they overreciprocate to make sure, and this leads to an ever-increasing cycle of exchanges."12 A successfully operating or just system of legal order is characterized by the "fact that people do not dis- agree on the interpretation of the rules they live by. And in these areas, where the legal order is successful and people are in agreement, justice is achieved."13 Political rationality.—-Decisions and how they are made is the content of political rationality. Diesing notes that "thinking is not an uncaused, self-generating activity . . . it has determinants.”1u Properly structured deter- minants of thought can produce rational thinking: improperly structured determinants can produce irrational thinking. Poli- tics is the process by which a group decides on its own course of action and the parts to be played in that action by each group member. The decisionamaking structure of a group is the ”organization of forces which determines how its deci- sions are made," or, the set of socio-cultural determinants of practical thought. Three components appear in all deci- sion structures: discugsion relationships (”talking and listen- ing, asking questions and answering them, suggesting courses of action and accepting them"), a get of beliefs and vglueg ——— 12Ibid., p. 165. 131b1de, p0 1680 14Ibid., p. 170. 108 that are more-or-less held in common by participating mem- bers ("these define the kind of ideas that can be seriously considered during discussion and decision”), and commitments previously accepped by a group and courses of action that the group is already pursuing ("all decisions have to be made in an actual context of actions and commitments resulting from previous decisions").15 Any decisiondmaking structure must have two character— istics to exist at all. First, it must make possible the presentation of a plurality of facts, values, norms, and action alternatives. At least two of each one of these is necessary, otherwise no decision is possible because there are no alternatives to decide about . . . . Second, it must make possible a unified resolution which incogporates at least some of the presented material.1 A decision structure exists whenever there is a group with a unifying purpose and various roles from which a variety of viewpoints and suggestions may be contributed. These are the prerequisites for any decision: without both no deci- sions can occur. The most effective decisions are likely to be produced by the decision structure which considers the greatest variety of proposed alternatives. Omission of fac- tors from consideration means that a decision will have un- anticipated consequences and possibly total results which are quite different from what was intended. In summation, a rational decision structure is one which yields adequate de- cisions for complex situations with some degree of consis- tency. Decisions lead to the achievement of many kinds of 15Ibid., pp. 171-172. 16Ibid., p. 177. 109 goals, but they have no unique value of their own. Regarding the difference between political decisions and nonpolitical decisions (as, for example, economic or legal decisions), the latter are "reached by considering a prdblem in its own terms, and by evaluating proposals according to how well they solve the problem. The best available pro- posal should be accepted regardless of who makes it or who opposes it, and a faulty proposal should be rejected or im- proved no matter who makes it. Compromise is always irra- tional: the rational procedure is to determine which pro- posal is the best and to accept it."17 On the other hand, in a political decision action is never based on the merits of a proposal but always on who makes it and who opposes it. ”Action should be designed to avoid complete identification with any proposal and any point of view, no matter how good or how popular it might be. The best available proposal should never be accepted just because it is best: it should be deferred, objected to, discussed, until major opposition disappears. Compromise is almost always a rational proce- dure, even when compromise is between a good and a bad pro- posal."18 Other forms of yationality.--In addition to the five kinds of order just reviewed are several other forms of think- ing and decisiondmaking which are especially pertinent to the topic of environmental design. Like social order, artistic 17Ibid., p. 204. 18Ibid. 110 and ceremonial order results in shared experience, but the latter are also characterized by the achievement of "sym- bolic meaning, beauty, [Eni7 expressive form.”19 Thus, any of the various art forms, i.e., music, poetry, drama, archi- tecture, sculpture, or painting, which effectively presents symbolic representations of the artist's thoughts or impres- sions would be considered rational in an artistic sense. The organizing principle of artistic rationality is therefore effectiveness (or good) produced through various media of symbolic expression. The objective of scientific thinking gpd acting is ”verifiable knowledge of nature and man."20 Systematic obser- vation of, or experimentation with, all kinds of phenomena leads to universally accepted judgments (e.g., ”natural laws"). Sense experience is the key to scientific verification. Con- sequently, some broad areas of experience, for example, art, literature, and philosophy, do not lend themselves to scien- tific experimentation. To illustrate, chemical analysis of the materials used in a painting or piece of sculpture pro- vides no particular insight into the symbolic meaning of the art work. The opder of health, which is directed toward the general goal of mental and physical wellébeing, is ”dis- tinctively based upon the given requirements of organic and 19Farness, "PerSpectives oannvirnnmental Planning and Resource Development,” op. cit., p. 14. ' 20Ibid. 111 physical fitness . . . . In the human dimension health also involves the need for emotional and mental wholeness and balance-~the ability to participate in . . . varied types or knowledge and action . . . ."21 As noted in earlier dis- cussion animals and plants are interrelated in extremely complex natural communities. Accordingly, any manipula- tion of these relationships by man must be performed with a great deal of care. It is because of our society's no- torious lack of condern for ecological relationships that we are confronted with many of our most critical urban prob- lems. An yet, probably few would deny that the rationality of health should receive the top priority in the design of truly habitable human settlements. Toward the Achievement of‘Bglanced Thinkipg In Municipgl Plannipg gpd Poiicy:gakipg Not all of the forms of decisiondmaking described herein may be employed simultaneously because the various modes of thinking are partially opposed to one another. Thus if any single mode of thinking and decision-making is allowed to be maximized the result may be the complete ex- clusion of some of the other rationalities and the creation of a one-sided perspective. History has seemingly borne out the hypothesis that certain forms of thinking are em- phasized within a culture for a long period of time and that there is a gradual process of change in which certain char- 21Ibid. 112 acteristics appear in a culture and, in time, become more prominent. When a mode of action becomes so deeply en- trenched in daily life, man unconsciously and automatically perpetuates and reinforces the mode of thinking. In a recent master's thesis, Clifford Bragdon de- fined four general periods of cultural evolution, tracing man's changing values and goals and illustrating the form of urban settlement pattern that has evolved from each.22 During the course of time, Western.man's artifacts and settle- ment patterns have demonstrated his shifting consciousness from the group to the individual and with it a striving for the values of independence and freedom to do as one pleases. Increasing emphasis on individual rather than collective goals is reinforced by differentiation and institutional compartmentalization. Consequently, man has frequently created urban patterns which are plagued by serious prOblems ("institutional dysfunctions”) resulting from an imbalance in his mode of perceiving and acting and his growing in- ability to view his creation in a comprehensive manner. Brag- don finds that man's present stage of cultural evolution is typified by the increasing influence of the "scientific- technological institution“ (with its goals of verifiable' knowledge and efficiency) and the economic institution (with its goals of welfare and maximization of profit). As a re— ZZClifford B. Bragdon. Urban Cultural Evolutionxég filfi§g£%§§%fi§g;§p§g§;z§, A Thesis submitted 0 the Schoo of Ur an ing and Landscape.Architecture. Michigan State University (E. Lansing, by the author, 1965). 113 sult daily life is becoming more mechanistic, automatic, and profit-oriented while health and aesthetics are re- ceiving disproportionate attention. Arnold Edinborough, keynote speaker at the 1965 American Society of Planning Officials conference in Toronto, lends support to this hypothesis: We have made wealth the religion of our cities, and the shrines are the palaces of wealth along, for example, Fifth Avenue in.New'York. And here we come to the enormous difficulty of our cities. Here . . . we have arrived at the hub of the problem which, as planners, we have to grapple wdthx wealth is our god; the developer is the high priest; and these enormous mindless slabs of masonry are our shrines. It is under this sacred mystique that we all have to live . . . . Politically, the people now have the authority . . . [and] should mold cities for themselves. The fact that they don't shows how far our philosophy has fallen behind our material ad- vance. Planners are at present the main interpreters of the people's will and they have no power at all. How many times have valid, reasonable plans to provide beauty, space, and amenities . . . been dumped by politicians who represent wealth, not people? This is the prdblem. Any city which believes land is more important than people, that development is always right, and that business is the only claimant to a voice in city business, is doomed. It isidoomed because of the violence which will result in such a soulless, crass conurbation: . . . it is doomed be- cause it will be out of step with a growing awareness of human dignity.23 Farness stresses that it is especially devastating to allow the economic perspective to be taken to extreme be- cause it ”changes the environment into a gray, neutral, colorless spectrum where everything is exchangable.24 He 23Arnold Edinborough, "The Significance of the City,” Planni 106 (chicagox American Society of Planning Officials, 19 S . pp- 34. 2L‘Farness, Paper Presented at the Pennsylvania State University Arts Festival, op. cit., p. 15. 114 . also cautions that planning on all levels is being reduced to simply economic development. The narrow focus on economic thinking is commonly encountered in municipal policydmaking and many people feel that there is no other way of making rational decisions (Diesing refers to this as an expression of the universalist-utilitarian value system).' Economic-technical human action, because of its one-sided dominance, is now gradually destroying our cities as viable centers for positive, healthy human living. Isolated economic logic is also destroying its own ground, for the economic sphere is dependent upon a fit "bio-logical” environment, a workable society of mutual personal relations, a body of balanced practical knowledge, and a government system defining available economic resources and structuring the econo- mic system. These prior systems are slowly deterior- ating, particularly in our large metropolitan areas whose over-concentrations are a prime economic pheno- menon. Their biological and physical environments are heavily deteriorated and becoming progressively toxic. Yet we continue to predict their growth. There is hardly anything to be said regarding their aesthetic environments. The paradox of a rising economic standard of living, measured in dollar income, and a declining environmental standard of living, measured in ecolo- gical, aesthetic, and social terms, is now manifesting itself. Social solidarity and interpersonal respect are declining under economic alienation into conflict and crime, while mental health problems are increasing.25 It is largely our cultural devotion to urban economic growth, efficiency, and individual freedom of action that have promoted the development of the sprawling urban agglomera- tions for which this nation is gaining some notoriety. One needs only to venture a humiliating drive in rush hour traffic, breathe the noxious air which accompanies it, and view miles of blighted cityscape to raise the legitimate 25%! P9 16' 115 question of whether man actually achieves economy, effi- ciency, and greater freedom as he allows and encourages his settlements to expand ad infinitum. Although the topic is intriguing, it is beyond the scope of this thesis to explore in depth the problems that may be directly related to urban growth rate, high population density, and urban size. By virtue of his advisory position in municipal government the planner can play an instrumental role in the restoration or creation of balanced thinking and action. First, he can call attention to the fragmented approach that is commonly pursued in dealing with the urban environment and which is evidenced by the employment of various special- ists who have been trained to observe problematic situations from a particular viewpoint and, accordingly, have developed habitual ways of thinking and acting. Secondly, he can direct attention to the necessity of developing a unified conception of the interdependencies of man and the natural environment. The latter suggestion would counteract the trend toward further fragmentation of our ways of thinking by furthering an awareness of the city or region as an interrelated whole which cannot logically be viewed from a single perspective. Man is dealing with a cultural system that must be reassembled into a unity. (For example, questions relating to the creation of a'healthful living environment cannot logically be resolved through economic analysis procedures.) The establishment of a mixed or "balanced" decision procedure should be the planner's aim. Each pertinent mode of thinking 116 should be allowed to play a proportionate role in plan— and policy-making. Suggestions for a General Methodology It was not the writer's intention in developing this thesis to devise in detail a methodology to supplant or augment the traditional techniques that are criticized herein. By the same token, the thesis would be incomplete without at least pointing the direction toward a more digni- fied planning approach. Three relatively straight-forward suggestions are offered as ways of altering traditional planning methods and re-establishing man's position as decisiondmaker in the municipal setting: 1. Discard forecasting as a foundation for scaling future land requirements and plan design. The planner and local decision-makers must recognize that man is responsible for the environment that he has created and that no longer may the blame for the creation of un- workable, overgrown settlements be assigned to ”external factors that are beyond human control." 2. Broaden the scope of planning research to in- clude--in addition to the somewhat routine studies of pnblic facilities, circulation, utilities, housing con- dition, economic base, land use, and the like-~such topics as ecological relationships, air and water pol-. lution, urban aesthetics and imagery, physical and men- 117 tal health, crime, local and regional decisiondmaking centers and methods of interagency coordination, legal instruments and administrative procedures for plan im- plementation, welfare, etc. Agriculture might even be considered a legitimate form of urban land use rather than as a ”holding zone" for controlling the rate and direction of expansion. Regional interdependencies must be acknowledged and coordinated regional policies pre- pared and accepted by all affected municipalities. (This is especially applicable for such subject areas as long- term resource availability and resource quality, pollu- tion, regional communication systems, and ecological re- lationships.) To be sure, the list of study areas may be extended considerably depending upon the availability of staff members and the priorities placed on various areas of concern. 3. Clearly state growth alternatives to the muni- cipal policyamaking bodies and define community objec- tives including those related directly to growth itself. Once the objectives have been embodied in alternative plan designs, it is suggested that the plans be tested (perhaps by means of simulation models) and evaluated in terms of the principal modes of thinking and acting, i.e., aesthetics, biological relationships, mental and physical health, economics, functional efficiency, in- terpersonal (social) relations, and legal and administra- tive feasibility. Such an approach may require the tech- 118 nical services of consultants in the various areas of specialization. Consequence estimates of population may be developed during the plan testing and evaluation stage of the planning program if desired. These suggested changes to the traditional urban plan- ning process are diagrammatically presented on Figure 1. Although in theory a municipality has (at the pleasure of the state) nearly complete Jurisdiction over land use and development within its boundaries, in practice it often ne- glects to use the authority at its disposal to create and implement policies in these important areas of concern. It is true that on a day-to-day basis, cities must operate in a highly complex regional framework as well as under state and federal Jurisdictions. Nevertheless, municipal govern- ments possess a wide range of tools for exercising control over the rate, direction, magnitude, and quality of urban growth. At their disposal, for example, are zoning; health and sanita- tion, housing, and building codes: policies relating to the extension of municipal utilities: policies relating to taxa- tion and annexation; urban renewal procedures: industrial development policies: acquisition (generally by purchase or gift) of land development rights and scenic easements: sub- sidies to promote certain forms of land use; and outright pur- chase of land (although in practice a rather limited tool). To briefly sum up, the general state of urban plan- ning procedure must be regarded as rudimentary. As long as the planners—~and others in planning and advisory positions-- Feedback CONCEPT AND THEORY FORMATION rogram Design 49(’///, INVENTORIES Land Use Transportation Public and Quasi— Public Facilities History Geographic Setting 1 STUDIES Identification of Causal-Functional Relationships of various Land Uses l OBJECTIVES Determination of Desired Land Use Relationships 4 i PRINCIPLES AND STANDARDS PLAN SELECTION & IMPLEMENTATION Suggested . ~ . Methodological "fir-BEE?! Changes cm \ FORECASTS Population Economic Activity ESTIMATION OF FUTURE PROBLEMS AND LAND REQUIREMENTS l . SYNTHESIS Plan Design ALTERNATIVE PLANS .A B C i ll TESTING MP EVALUATION Simulation (Cost-Revenue Models 1 Analysis J_ Aesthetic Analysis Ecological Analysis Legal & Administrative Anal. Physical/Mental Health Anal. Social Analysis inter ersonal relations Fig. 1.—-Typical planning process schematic with suggested revisions. 119 conscientiously employ projection techniques as a base for allocating urban space, natural resources, and municipal revenues, and, in addition, Justify their proposals with one-sided cost—benefit reasoning, their professional services to the community may be regarded as naive, deceptive, or unethical. CHAPTER VI SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION Probably the two most significant concepts presented in this research were developed in Chapter II. One is the rather fundamental conception of the ggcio-cultural gystem, which consists of physico-chemical, vital, and meaningful components. It is the meaningful component that makes this kind of system quite different from inorganic and biological systems. Man attaches meanings to material obJects and ex- presses his meanings in behavior. Thus, socio-cultural systems (human societies) bear within them the power to shape their destinies or determine the course of future events to a great extent. They are decision-oriented systems: meaningful actions are the outcome of conscious decision processes. In contrast, inorganic and organic systems change in a highly predictable manner and are said to be deterministic. The second concept is the process of socio-cultural change with its four general aspects or dimensions: temporal, spatial, quantitative, and qualitative. Changes in any or all of the first three dimensions may effect a positive or nega- tive change in the qualitative dimension. Whether the quali- tative change is positive or negative depends upon the mean- ings and values that are desired in the socio-cultural system. 120 121 Using these two concepts as a basis for evaluating several planning reports, it is demonstrated that the use of population and economic proJections as a way of estab- lishing future community growth levels and subsequently to develop plans aimed at satisfaction of the municipal space and service demands created by that assumed growth level, constitutes an illogical planning approach. Such methodology denies that man can make conscious decisions about the future size of his communities. Socio—cultural systems are, therefore, viewed by many planners as predictable, deter- ministic inorganic and organic phenomena! In addition, by making widespread usage of costébenefit analysis techniques as tools for Judging the acceptability of plans, the planner overemphasizes quantitative objectives to the potential de- triment of qualitative values. Viewed in a theoretical context, the author postulates that the relationship between quantitative urban growth (in- crease in population, economic factors, material culture, acres in urban use, etc.) and qualitative urban growth (in— crease in the suitability of the environment for human habi— tation, e.g., by creation of a more healthful, psychologically accommodating, and aesthetic environment) may be graphed as a bell—shaped or normal curve (see Figure 2). As quantitative growth progresses, qualitative change gradually rises from a low level to an apex and then tapers down to the low level. Acting under the assumption that projected trends are a logi- cal basis for planning, the planner may in theory be encour- 122 aging growth beyond the apex of the curve, the point be- yond which qualitative returns begin to diminish. / s Fig. 2 positive change-a». \ \ I l I QUALITATIVE CHANGE Direction of I Direction of increase—.- QUANTITATIVE CHANGE Although the logic and accuracy of the above illus- tration may be subJect to question, there is little doubt that the typical municipal planning program overemphasizes economic obJectives and frequently shows little awareness that other modes of thinking and acting exist and are appli- cable to urban planning. It seems to this observer that the nation's polluted lakes and streams and toxic air tes- tify that a low priority has been placed on environmental health. Depressing, high density slums and ghettos, and rising rates of crime, violence, divorce, and mental illness suggest that man has underrated psychological and interper- sonal values. Day-to-day traffic snarls, even on.modern freeway systems, connote a lack of concern for efficient urban circulation. The seemingly endless assemblages of dis- sident roadside signs such as those encountered in strip commercial developments present, in addition to their commer- 123 cial messages, an appearance of visual blight. Soil erosion, depletion of natural resources, extinction of wildlife, and massive metropolitan water shortages indicate society's un- concern for ecological relationships. In contrast, man's technological skill and the high priority which has been placed on the achievement of economic ends have created great sunless canyons flanked by slabs of concrete and sur- rounded by vast urban agglomerations--these are the monuments to his cultural age. 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