THE, {.3333 CF THE DEMONSTKH’iON-iFWERVEW
VECHMQUF: LR" ESTEMEFWGE THE QNSTE'TUE‘iDNAi.
ACC!§F»"E‘:’:‘;-3€CE OF [DENY SLATEG MASHEE?

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The use or the dcuonstraui‘onn . . . . .

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IN unTI.A"T G TIS. InfillfUIIG AL ACC M'iIJE CF
«'fiqu—w ”m 1,“ ~ rw.Ar-1nm.v'r-1rr-AI

using“ this.) 121:..;.AD Pvt-aafio P.RQE;U$J

by E. Kirk KeCreery

At present, there is a need for methods to be develOped
which will enable a food manufacturer to determine the degree
of euccees a new product will have when.pleced on the ma ke
at the institutional level (this market includes hotole,
reste murants. in-plant feeding concerns, hospitals, prieo:.1e,
etc.). One possible method is the demonstration-interview
technique, which was used to determine he market potential
of potato flakes and other dehydrated mashed potato products.

The objectives of this study are (l) to evel date the
denenstretion—interview technique when used to predict the
market potential of a new institutional product, (2) to
determine the trend in the acceptance of dehydrated :naehed
potato products, and (3) to develOp suggestions for nerketin3
these products in the future.

The demonstrationpinterview technique wee need by re-
searchers at Kichigen State University to determine the market

potential of potato flakes, a nee dehydrated mashed potato

product which was not yet on the market. Tee etuéy was coxm
ductei in 93? among 15'
Fioh‘3;s. 1:3 reconstitution of potato flakes in to mashei

potatoes wee degenetretei t3 the bu er. in each of the estate

‘L.

lishaents. M ter sungliau the product, n3 buyer e we; 9 asked
a series of questions deinJei t3 determiae the acceptance

of he preduct. Additioaal im tioa was so gathered on
other potato profiuc a used, and on the operation f the estabu
liehae :t. On the basis of buyer '3 ans"e:cs, 51 percent of

the e..t.1blis‘ne2.s were classifiea as an ”immediate” market
for petite f1.Lee, 32 percent as a potou.ia“" m‘iket, and

17 perceut as'"n no" ma‘aet for tm product. The results
indicateda hi 3h acceptano e and market pctential for potato
flakes and oth er deaydratei mashed potato proiuots among the
sample establishments.

The results of a seeoni survey seas of the same estab-
lishments in 959 showei that the demonstration-interview
techniq as was unreliacle when used to predict the use of the
potato flake product by individual establishments. There
were several factors contributing to the failure of t? .-e tech~
nique in this respect, but this weakness of the technique
cannot be overlooked. When the results of the 1937 study
are interpreted as indications of the market potential for
all dehyarated products, the n"mber of establishments found
using these products in 1933 more closely corresponded to

the estimates made in 195?. It was found that the estimates

made 13 the 1937 staiy 9f thw overall usage of deLydL 3:33

mashei r0 mtito pro333ts were fairly r3li3_hlo. 3L3 l357 esti-

d

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ri-
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a 3 of the ma1L3 t notentiml for 33LW3rat3d ”rodaoto were
a H

3!

an ”immediate” marzat of 22 par: ext, 333 a potential“
D

market of 33 p3 cent of all otatoes used by the sample.
The act 331 usaga of th333 products in 1959 was 20 peruen
of tho total potatooB uaod by the sample establishments.

It was c3331 33 tLat rm ”to rimprovemonts aro needed
in tha demonstratioumintorviou toohniqaa. Two sueL improve-
ments may be (1) an wgplying 33mp13 eotaL113333nto with a
several day's 3“pply of the test product, and (2} the uao
of this teaniquo in 00? junction with an institutiOLLI sales
test. The latter approach may not only iLJraaso th3 accuracy
of predicting market aooeptan33, but may also be a source of
information that will load to furthor product improvement.

The production or dohydratefl mashed potato products
has been increasing rapidly (a 375 percent increase from
1957 to 1959). It appears that this ropifi rate will continue
for the next few years. In the past tho institutional trade
has been the major market outlot for those proauota. While
the institutional trade's demand has been increasing at a
oorreaponding rate in the past. the results of this study
indicato only a moderate increase in demand in the future.
Consequently, tho dohydratofl mashed potato industry is faced
with potential overproduction.

The two alternatives to this problem are either the

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11.1119 retail market. 'f‘fa 1"11-1‘-; ”t1“? 733.1," be 37.31:.) ti.) 82C"
1 market tire: 2 p213 3;, 3373361312; 333 3333311333
}, 3.1.2:; cl'...=.3':2;;--.;3 is. 1333123 33.2.3.
If effarts re 33: 3313 t3 igerc3*3 333 retail 33rk33, the

1 1 n.- v ‘n 0 *Q a“ . ~1' “‘~a‘. ~51 ': 5
past r333 of 533333 3133 ha 33631 f 533333333, 333 £33333

1ncr33533 in PPOdUG‘icn Villh ha“ cto L3 curtailed.

THE USE OF THE DEMONSTRATIOE-IHTERVIEW TECHNIQUE
IN ESTIMATING THE IESTITUTIONAL ACCEPTANCE OF
DEEYDRATED MASHED POTATO PRODUCTS

by

E. Kirk EcCreary

A THESIS

Submitted to the College of Agriculture of Kichlgan
State University of Agriculture and applied
Science in partial fulfillment of the
requirements for the degree or

1*‘0fl‘fi, *3 r" T‘O'FI’-?'f‘.
Misulglfl O: SUIALIL‘JCJJJ

Department of Agricultural Economics

1962

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CI.PTEIZ I

IN TTRODUCTION

In the field of market research there are numerous

ethode used in evaluating consumer acceptance of new retail
food products before they are marketed on a commercial scale.
Many food manufact avers have rouni preumarket testing a
valuable aid in new proiuet deveIOpment and a considerable
amount of work is ccrriei out in this area. Howevev, there
has been a general leg in the dechOpme22o of methods for
pro-market testing new tool products deei31e a mainly for the
institutional trade.1 Until recently, governmental agencies
and educational inetituticnc have done little work in this
area or market research. No doubt the food industry has
_conducted studies designea to dctermiuc inetitutional accep-
tance. but there have been no published reports describing

tho tech? iquoe used.

The purpose of this theeis is to describe and evaluate

lfhe tern ins citational trade, as need in this thesis

will include Pee toured ate, hotels, hospitals, and other private
and publi: inetitu tioee serving meals on a regular heels.

This segment of the fool influetry accounted for 18 percent

of the total food budget in 1955. See Robert M. Welsh,
”Marketing Farm Foods in the 1950's", Agriculftrcl Nerketing,
Volume 5, N0. 1. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington.
D.O., January 1960. p. 13.

 

2
the use or the demonstrationpintcrview technique in the pro-
oorket testing of new food products for tho institutional
trade. While the study eeeeribed deals specifically vith
dehydrated mashed potato products. it is possible to draw
several conclusion: concerning tho vein. of the methods om-
plcyod, ac well on to make oboervationc on the product itcclt.
<L.:~232:§ “S -:TM£?lJ J :.¢ V334». TZEAWNs

Thorn arc tour general method: used in pro-nonkct tout-
ing new food products . laboratory panels. man consumer
panels, retail or sales cost... and institutional acceptance
studios. The first three methods mentioned may be used to
toot retail products, while the first, cocoon. and lost one
no: he used to toot institutional productc.

The laboratory panel is usually used in conjunction
with now product development. The general procedure followed
in to prooont tho various alternative form: or formula: or a
prepccod product to c relatively small group or individuals.2
the numbers or those panels are either trained or untrained
teeters. The panel member- compare the various torus of the
product against ouch other. to a predetermined ctendord. to
a similar ontobliohcd product. or to their own.pcraonal pro-

2The size of these panels may range from 4 to 100 members,
but the average panel has from 4 to 12 members. See E. H.
Dawson, and B. L. Harris, Se 3 r Metho e forMegeuri§§ Dir-
éggg§§eglig Foog a it , Agricultur ntorma on u at n
'. , U. . Departmen of Agriculture, Bureau of Human 7
Nutrition and Home Economics, Washington, D. 0., 1951. p. 17.

3
terences. The testing is carried out under laboratory condi-
tions where an effort is made to control as many of the out-
side variables as possible. Therefore, the results obtained
are more closely a reflection of the differences between the
characteristics of the various samples themselves, rather
than a combination of sample differences and external vari-
ables. The purpose of such tests is to give a prelisinsry
indication of consumer preferences.3 These preference indi-
cations, along with the accompanying comments, can be of
considerable help in develcping the product. It is possible
to disregard these variations of the product which have a
low degree of preference before large suns of money are
spent on their further deve10psent or production.

The use of mass consumer panels is usually the next
step in pro-market testing new food products. Samples of
the new product are distributed (either_by sail-or personal
contact) to a selected group of households. This product
is usually compared with other selected products sent or
delivered to the same households. The principle questions
can.be answered through the use of mass consumer panels:

(1) How does the test product compare with competing products

. 4 A. ‘ ._‘ _. __.._ .L 4 -_ _.‘

._,_ V—

3The word reference will be used when referring to ”the
ordering of ohoEce among two or more alternative products in
a given environment by a consumer or group of consumers.
ffigggtgggg refers to the de es of saleability of the product
'a g wen market situation . Soc B. R. Kiehl and V. J.
Rhodes, ”New Techniques in Consumer Preference Research“,

lame]. 2: lists W Volume 38. 1956. p. 1336.

4
(preferences), and (2) what qualities or attributes has the
test product which are advantages or disadvantages in com-
peting with similar products.4 Thase two questions are
essentially the same as those answered by the laboratory
panels, but in the ease or the mass can em mer‘pa 2.1313, the
indications of cor an: 3r preferences should be more accurate.
This is beoeu 33 of the larger number of panel menbere 1n~
volvedg, anfl tho opportunity for éeveloping more ropraoonton
tive sanplaa. In adfiitlon, it 13 possible through the uoe
of hue? 3 323d questior 3, to develop information on various
characteristioa of the respondents. info2 motion is
useful in planning future promotions for the product.

For retail products, the third phaso in.pre-market
testing 13 the use of a retail 33133 test. Th3 laboratory
and mass coauumor panels 3:131:10 the manuftvuure1 to eeleot
the best form of tho product. This product is than actually
put on sale in a limitefl but rapreeentative market area.
Sales records are kept on the test product whi3h are used
as a basis for determining oonoumor acceptance. In afldition,
it is possible (1) to compare the 33133 of the new product
with those of competing products (1.3. consumer preferences),

(2) to determine the =2 2roxim ate effe: 3 of adv3rti 135.

m

promotion, and pricing on the 33133 of the new product,

#m‘ .._4_ _‘ .4..-

l; 2 a
‘J. L. Bonert, ” o2hni of 0013213“ P:2oduot T33t1n z",

Foog Industrlgg, Vol ame 13, 1941, p. 47.

 

5Mony or these teete have 200 or more respondents.

< _ .
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5
(3 ) to datePTin3 the. to or initial and repea t punch 33
(uh n foil vup interviews are used), and (4) to obte”n con-
su 333 epin;io n3 about the ne. ppe-iuot and etaiemsnte eoout
t3 ueea (when followup i1t4'2‘nwa are uaoi}. 6 1113.3 properly

conductea, retail testing enoula give a fairly aoounate
estimation on how successful the new retail product will be
under actual nnrset conditions.

the o“e~33VRet testing of in32111210;1:11 p"ofluotn,

there are two groupa of individuule who mnot be oonsiéared.

$2.!

Th3 first of these 13 tha ultimate conanoen of '33 3123 not.

(33

This incluies the customer? of hotola, ”3223123133, an
in1113nt reodilg 332““lio2fi2nte, hospit:11 pat: n;:, rison
inmates, etc. Laboratory and 3:33 oonsunor p 2313 can he
need to datenninw thie gronp'e proferenoee for the difzerent
variationa of the product. The roaulta of Lh33 3 tests wi 11
inaio ate 3332522 on no t this group M 1-113133313 vi 1 like
the product when it is served to them.

The 33oon§ 3 ~13 involvel 30331323 of the buyore, chefs,
dietioiane, eto., who 31113 nQ 3 the acceptability of :33
product. t is poaeible,'eeneoiallj to th3 development
or fnozen, concentrated, deLrinwteJ, and otlme proocseefl
foods, that 3 hi@ Mae. nee or preference on the part of the
first gnoup o indi21' in 313 will not nooees2ar11y guarantee

,
0?. fl. Knish, "That Is and‘what Is Hot G305 Cons2mer
Reeoaroh", Paper preo3ntei at tho Twele2 Reciprocal Eent
Conference, 3.5. Department of Agriculture, Agricultural
Nerketing Service, Washington, D. 6., 1959. p. 3.

‘

. 1‘: ,3 3 a. . v- t .2 ‘ " * " fl 0 “'9 0
3333333333 3* t33 second 33333. “1.3 of 33333 3.333 roflaots
- pg 01 3 - lb. 2 ' ‘ 1, r-l 5-4 ’0 N- _ fl“ -l I ‘V "' I, . ,. ~ ‘5 Q ‘- 1 ‘
refillrs 3933111 .35 35 a3: pvupgratmon técx $15333 whloh may

or may not.b3 a: o 3 :31. Therofora, the fool 233132331. :3? net

only ha to 33:3 * inn th: ult 313 on launers‘ proferenzes, but

U:

also moat do 1333133 if it will be 333392313 3 +9 thrug 3 who are-
para 333 serve it, 1.3. the 1332133313311 trafla.

Th3 3333333 use in labora to? J anfl 0313""33 933313 have
baan 33 developed tizat it is n332p0331 313 to get fairly ran
liable indications of consumers' quality profer3n333. The
food manufacturer. therefor 3. can be fairly am we of how the
ultimate oonsamer of hlz *Toouct will react when it 13 served
to him. On the other haafl, fibers are no woll-d3velOp31
methods curve ntlya 3M1 3 ~15 to a fool manor 3 ursr to 6313?-
mine the acceptance of the product by the 0 her lmsortan
group he deals with . the institutional trade.

The ma thod or mathou'13 used to d3termir e inst: uti or a
trade acceptance n3 ed to be 33 curate 33313h so that reliable
predictions can ho mafia concerning the profluot'a market
potentials. It is desirable to obtain in??? M101 on the
handling, storazgs, and preaaz~ation o the: product,—on con»
aumer reactions, on con ulnar 312 3, anl on QOTpRPlSOHS to
almilar products being usad. ‘*“13 13-33331133. 33 31 one:
only aid in determining the acceptance of the product, at
may also aid in product improvement. Thus, tha role of
institutional acceptance etufiies 15 to provide baaioally the

same information on consumer acceptance as is 33333. in the

7 .

fl later phases of pre-market testing retail products.

.§L__2§E NATURE OF THE STUDY

The demonstration-interview technique was used in the
summer of 1957 to determine the institutional acceptance of
potato flakes (a dehydrated mashed potato product). This
product was demonstrated to 164 buyers in a probability

sanplc of public eating places. Included in the sample were

most or the types of feeding establishnents that were included

in the definition or the institutional trade. After the demon-
strations, the buyers were asked a series or questions designed
to determine product acceptance and market potential. On the
basis of these ensuers. predictions were made on the future
use of this product. The same buyers were again interviewed
in 1959. The purpose or the second survey was to determine

the rate or acceptance of potato flakes and other potato

products among the sample establishments. The data gathered

in the two surveys makes it possible to study the acceptance

of various potato products, and make an evaluation of the

research technique used.

Specifically, the objectives or this study are:

1. To describe and evaluate the demonstration-interview
Itechniquo when used to predict the market potential of a
new institutional food product.

2. To determine the trend in the institutional acceptance
of dehydrated mashed potato products.

3. To suggest possible changes in the marketing of dehydrated

8

tato products based on the information Eaveloped

G)

wconfi cbgeeuiv

CKAPTER II

AH APPLICATIGN 0F T53 DEECHBTRM UnulmluuVlun thquqUE

A BACKJ’--'

In the early 1950‘s, the U.S. Department of Agriculture
deveIOped the potato flake process for manufacturing dehyu
drated mashed potatoes. By this process, a high quality
dehydrated mashed potato product can be produced from relan
tivcly low dry-matter content potatoes grown in Hichigan and
the eastern United States. Before the deveIOpnent of this
new process, only the relatively high dry-matter content
potatoes grown in the‘West were utilized for dehydrated
mashed potatoes.7 These older processes included the ”add
back” method and the ”extrusion” method. The first process
produces a powder farm called ”granules”: the second, an
extruded noodle-like form referred to as "shreds”.8 Granules
were the major form of dehydrated mashed potatoes produced
at the time of the deveIOpnent or flakes.

In 1957. the Department of Agricultural Economics at
Michigan State University decided to conduct an institutional

acceptance study on the potato flake product which was not

7 w. s. Greig, r. 0. Strand, and a. s. Larzolere, Rel
1ve Retail Sales and Elasticit of Demand for Duh drage
fie she a FoEeto frodficts re mnary fieportf:"fieoar%nent of
IQ mi oultfi1 aI Economics. hichigan State University. 1953,
P. c

8 H. La Olson, and W. O. Harrington, ”Dehydrated Mashed
Potatoes - A Review”. AIO ~ 297. U.S. Department of Agri-
culture, Iashington, D.C.. 1951.

10
yet on the market. 9

Two pro—market teats had already been made on this prod-
uct. The results or these tests indicated considerable con»
tuner satisfaction with flakes. The first of these tests
was a retail sales test and consumer survey conducted by the
3.8. Department of Agriculture during the summer or 1956.10
On the basis of the consumer survey. it was found that a
high preportion of the homemakers who had used the product
vcrc satisfied with it.

The second pro-market tout consisted of a series of
taste preference tests comparing the flake. granulc, and
shred forms of dehydrated mashed potatoes. These tests were
conducted in Michigan State University's consumer preference
panel at Detroit (s liberatcry typo panel) in the Spring of
1957.11 In the first taste preference test. reconstituted
lashed potatoes made from all three terms were rated by the

‘— _T_ ‘— f

91% results or this study are reported by v. Smith

'§2&:%§%E¥1Wncry cpcr yfl'gifiistiis:

- : ~ . Hichissn.3tctc university, 1957.
The l957 data used in this Thesis has either been taken
directly from this report or from other data dcvclopcd in
this study.

10?. B. Dwoskin, and n. Jacobs, ;.

 

    

118. arcig, and R. Lsrncicrc, “Consumer Taste Preference

Along Dehydrated Mashed Potato Products N W
W den» Vclunc 5. so. 2. 1957. pp.'4-‘%m.

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~ ¢-4' ‘ 1 u .5 - r v. C M '--5 ’ 'YNM
atter 33333. 313133 3333 333» 31 31.3135 3 over usin 5 raw
patatess for tne 3133 3 £333. Shay 3313133 1333 3333333
space; are qui3ker t3 3333333, 333 b3 3333 in 33311 3313333,

333 3333133 1333 13333 333 e~uimm - T3333“ 33v3343338

C1 an m r. tr -..- ,,- ~--. I: v 5. J1..- - 3" u.- .. ‘ . L; Q -__ ,u _ --.
WOuld 33 3333 13333t333 13 533 1ustit3313331 t3343, 3313 CO.’k9

f

sequently, tLe* would 33 3333 likely to 31331 the predu3t

300331. 3133 tbs 13133 3.3 3313 35 311133 i3 191“” 3% the
o p

'L,

inszitutional level 1333 3* 133 3r 2311 13331 3333333 of 333
51330 of container 333d. $33 361311 price 33 £13333 13

higher 31333 3111133 3 1.31-3-3 are used, which 133333363
the p3.113113 3031 333 paund. The lower price at tha insti~
tutional 13ve1 33133 $13333 3333 00336313133 with 333 potatoes
than 13 p031 hi 3 at the retail level. With these factors in
3136 it was decided 33 conduct an institutional accqptance
study 33335 public 331135 establiahments.

T33 303333 at 133 313335 used in the 3330331333103 was
a pilat plant 033331103 31 the Eastern U31 11 33133 333133ch

and Development Division, Agricultural Reaearch Service,

13Tha results are significant at the 0.001 level. Odds
339 1000 to 1 that this agreement in preference among consumers
for the 333396 potatoea from the flakea was not due to chance
alone. Graig and Lacs 91639, 03. C: t. p. 6.

13
U.S. Department of Agriculture in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.
fhe output 0: the Operation was so limited that it was pcs~
Bible to get only enough flakes for small dcmcnstraticn
samples. Leaving a several days' supply with each buyer was
entirely out or the question; although this method had been
need in a market test or dehydrcfrczen.peas conducted by the

14

v.5. Department of Agriculture. The effect or this limited

sapply on the accuracy of the responses is discussed later.
B, Paccenems
;. Sample Selection
A probability sample of 164 restaurants, hotels and

 

 

other public eating places was selected in'Wayne County
(principally Detroit), Michigan. Since a relatively small
number of the larger establishments represented over half

of the total market, it was decided to sample disprOpcrticnp
ately, 1.6., to include in the sample a greater number of
the larger establishments than would be included in a com-
pletely random sample. The sample drawn represented approx-
imately seven percent of the total market baeed on the num-
ber of eating establishments in Wayne County. Based on the
number of employees (an indication of size of establishment),
the sample represented 17 percent or the total market. The
sample did not represent the entire city of Detroit since

 

143. J. Modrath and M. S. Sills, Restaurant Acceptance
0f Dehydrofrozen P838, Marketing Research Report l93 U. .
Egbertment of Agriculture, Agricultural fiarheting Service,
Market Research Division, 1957. .

 

14
the metrOpolitan area extends beyond Wayne County.

2. The Demonstration-Interview Techui
‘

‘1

This study was conducted during the months or July and
August in 1957. Each buyer (1.6. the individual who made
the decisions concerning product use) in the 164 sample
establishments was contacted by telephone. After explaining
the purpose of the study, appointments were made with the
buyers. At each establishment the interviewer demonstrated
the reconstitution of a sample four-person serving package
of flakes into mashed potatoes. For ease and accuracy, each
interviewer carried a case containing all the materials nec-
essary for the demonstration. Upon the completion of the
demonstration, the reconstituted flakes were offered to the
buyers for sampling. Then the buyers were asked questions
designed to obtain their opinions on the product itself, and
on the possible usage of it in their establishments. Detail-
ed information on the Operation of each establishment and
the use of other potato products were obtained during the
interviews.

It would have been possible to take samples or both the
potato flakes and granules to the establishments used in the
study. This would have given the buyer an Opportunity to
compare the two products. However. direct comparisons had
already been made through the consumer preference panel with
a considerable preference indicated for the potato flake

product. In light of these results, it was decided to use

15

1

Just the potato flakes in the study to predict the parameters
of market potential for dehydrated mashed potato products.
jggfiarhet Classifications

After the demonstrationeintervies was completed, each
establishment was classified in terms of its market potential
for potato flakes. This classification was based on a cone
sideraticn of the overall response of the buyer to flakes.
The three classifications used were: (1) an immediate market.

(2) potential market, and (3) no market. The criteria for

these classifications were as follows:15

Immediate market was defined as: "those buyers
who indicated that potato flakes were better in
quality than. or of the same quality as, other den
hydrated potato products; who indicated that the
flakes would be satisfactory for use in their
establishments: who would buy the flakes if they
were on the market: would pay seven cents per 16
pound for them on an equivalent fresh-weight basis;
and who would use the flakes for all mashed potatoes
made in the establishment.“ As a group these buyers
were quite enthusiastic about the product. The
principal question asked by this group of buyers
was, "How will they stand up on the serving line?"
and this was questioned by less than half of these
buyers.

The - tential marge} was defined as: ”Those
buyers who Indicated—that the flakes were better
than or the same as other dehydrated mashed potato

roducts: who indicated that the quality of the

 

Graig. m. mo. p. 9‘10.

15The seven cents per pound was used for the following
reason: the price per case of granules (six No. 10 cans of
six pounds each net weight) delivered to restaurants in
Detroit was from $10 to 61¢»per-case. Using manufacturers'
conversion factors of one No. 10 can equal to 40 pounds raw,
the granules were from five to six cents per pound of pets,
toes on a fresh equivalent basis. Seven cents was used
because of possible added transportation costs for flakes.

15

16

flakes. as denonstruted. would be satisfactory for
their purposes; but who would not necessarily pay
seven cents per pound equivalent fresh~weight basis
and/or would not use the product for all mashed
potatoes.” These buyers indicated an interest in
the product but questioned how well it night stand
up on the serving line, price, customer reaction,
or intended use of the product. In general, the
attitude of this group of buyers was, ”I would
probably try them (the flakes), but it is hard to
tell whether I would use the: all the tins or not.”

‘flg marks; was defined: "Those buyers not fall-
ing in the above classifications u that is, those
who indicated that present arrangements were com-
pletely satisfactory: those who used little or no
mashed potatoes; those who felt the product was of
borderline quality: and those who indicated the
product quality was definitely inferior and could
not he used under any circumstances.”

Subjective opinions of the demonstrator-inter-
viewer were used in determining the market classa
ificatiou of an establishment only in those cases
where a buyer gave a qualifying or conditional
response to a particular question.

a. ESTES or 1:23 19571122.;

The overall results of the 1957 study seemed to indicate
a rather high market acceptance and potential for flakes and
other dehydrated mashed potato products. The following
results have particular significance:

1. Eighty-three percent of the buyers who had tasted
other forms of dehydrated mashed potatoes indicated that
potato flake quality was better. However, over half of the
buyers had never tasted a dehydrated mashed potato product.

i 2. Eighty-two percent of buyers currently using other
forms of dehydrated mashed potatoes indicated that the
potato flakes were a better product. Only 17 establishments
were using dehydrated product (granules) regularly or for

emergency use at the time of the first survey.

l?
3. Eightyneight percent of the buyers indiorted that
the flakes were the some as or of better quality than the

mashed potatoes noemslly mst in their estaoli”hnent3.

4. Hinetyuone percent of the buyers indisstea t

35123
flakes would be of satisfactory qusiity for use in their
establishments.

5. Forty-one percent of the buyers indicated they would
buy the potato flakes if commercially available; B3 percent
steteJ that tie purchase depended on price: and only 13
percent iniiestod they would not buy the.product.

6. Eighty-one percent or the buyers stated that they
would pay more for the flakes than for raw potatoes (on an
equivalent basis).

7. Eighty-three percent or the buyers who would purchase
the flakes would use them regularly for s11 massed potatoes;
only 17 percent would keep them for emergency use.

8. Firty~one percent or the establishments in the survey
were classified as an "immediate” market for potato flakes,
32 pereent as a ”potential” market. and 17 percent as ”no”
market for the produet. I
ng THE FARZET PREDICTIOHS BASED 03 THE lQSZuSTUDY

With the information gathered in the 1957 study, it was
possible to expand the sample data to state, regional, and
national market potentisls. It was found that 39 percent of
the potatoes use& by the sample establishments were in the
mashed form. With the total amount of potatoes used by the

sample establishments in each market classification known,

13

the approximate amount of potatoes used by each group for mashed
form was computed by taking 39 percent of the total potatoes
used by that group (Table l). The next step was to determine
the percent of potatoes used for the mashed form by each market
classification based on the total amount of potatoes used by
all the sample establishments. For example, Table 1 shows
that the establishments in the immediate market classification
used 218 hundredweight of potatoes per week for the mashed
form. This amount represents 22 percent or the total potatoes
used by all the sample establishments (979 hundredmeight per
week). The immediate and potential groups combined were
using 320 hundredweight of potatoes per week for the mashed
form. This amount represents 33 percent of the total potatoes
used by all the sample establishments (979 hundredweight per
week). i V

To expand the sample data, the percent of potatoes used
for the mashed form by the immediate and potential market
groups were applied to the total amount of potatoes used by
public eating places in a given market. For example, in
1957 it was estimated that 39 million hundredweight of potap
toes were used in the United States at the institutional level.17
Assuming that the immediate market utilises 22 percent or all
the potatoes used in the mashed form, the immediate market

potential for dehydrated mashed potato products would be

17”U.B. Production. Utilization. and Use of Designated
Potato Crops”, National ggtato Council News, January 1957. p. 11.

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serving line. Frellmin:fiy tooto, however, inaicato
that this was a fairly safe assumption.

(f) The stufly was conducted during July anfi
August. A comparison of quality was most logically
a comparison of flake quality with the quality of
mashed potatoes made from summer varieties of
potatoes. In actual practice, the major preportion
of all mashed potatoes used are made from late
crap varieties.

The results obtained were not intendad to be exact answers
to the question of the: acceptance and potential of potato
flwum, but were indications of what might be expected based

maths information develOpod in the sample study.

CH :. ‘lnLc III

THE: LEE-10D USHD TO CH 30K TEE ACCURACY OF

TLE hammers-i910: I—INTBRVIEV' TF CHI-E IQUE

In 1.959 it was decided to re-survey the 16"; establishments
ch participated in the 1957 market test. The purpose or
3 survey was to gather in: ormsti 21 which :sculd (1) aid in
dusting the demonstraction-interview technique when used to
edict m market potential or a. new institutional food
oduct, (2) determine the trend in the acceptance or dehy-
eted mashed potato products. and (3) be useful in develcping
.gsesticns for marketing these products in the future.

PROCEDUR-

Tho followup survey was coeducted during the months of

sly and August. Appointments were made with the same buyers
hen possible. The queetioneire used was designed to cover
.everal aspects of the usage of potato products. Specifically.
.he buyers were questioned on their use of potato flakes, the
ariccs they paid for the product... and their reasons for using
or not usihg the product. The buyers were set. ed to give the

amounts and the prices or the various other potato products

 

that they were using. They were also questioned on their
knowledge or flakes, their experience with the product, and
the contact they had with. potato flake salesmen.
B. grossgcsszIs 0T1 ea or THE .NTAstxesmHss .cT INCLUDED
IN 1959
While every effort was made to contact as many or the

 

 

23

no.1 est":.lis.mo...s as possi‘de, only it]. establishments

‘15-”

r inoluded in the results or the followup survey. ‘Twentya
are sets. 11i- .ments were not interviewed or. included b-eoause
Lam-cooperation, the elosi ng of tie d1?.iug fasilities,

1.3. out 0:. engine? a, or rains-1 ma .3es hide in size or

s of busin1ss. The size and markets ass sirioation or the
nhlishmants excluded are shown in Totals 2. Of these estab-
le 2 - The size and market classification of the establish-

to not included in the 1959 survey (23 establishments

 

 

 

:W ' ' . . 1 . .. , - .. --._._--_-,-.--_--.-.__._-.---.-.-.--

ins Class Number of Moufigt 1 itiootion (1957)

Total Amount Establish» wedWla e ratential ho

P Potatoes mente Market Market Market

zed Per Week (1939) (Number of Establishments)
(est)

mall. 0.5.0 21 14 3 4

111.153, 5.1“10I0 O O O

1rge. 13.0mup 2 1 1 0
Total 23 15 4 4

shoents is had been classified as an immediate market in

 

’57. four as a potential market and four as no market. As
Lntwaseen from the table. the majority of these establish-
:nts were small in terms of the total onount of potatoes
zed per week.

or the 141 establishments included. 12 had changed hands

ince 1957. The type and size of Operation carried on by the

'.
2+

....-.:.:.;I.::* :1;- e.:.>g::e.;:rov1 1.0 be 31:112.? to that. reporter! in

33..) they W32? 1: at e“). laminated. Those esteemeflente which
1 subs tenth -13." (32:13:33: are anon: 1:323 25 not. 131.232.3306. in
1353 :tu3r.

mfiwvrhq In NH“ "Hrflfi n? n3oarj nfidfivnmq 1’ mm“ Dennan

a ..3- .- 4 x- ...1

 

E13 qua-37:10:15 3.3.1“ 35-3 used 1:1 £330.: 313115133 .rL-fl (11113231210113 con-v
“12.1213; the 9.1131131; of raw pot:.:toee .3113: p13: 31:13:32): :30 am prod-
:23 11333:”. by en? es tabliehment. 23 0013139333113 this data. from
a to: studies it. 1- pagsiblo to establish trends in the
age of these '33... “'ioue pate. “to prodWc as ‘m' the sarrale es tab-
33331331133.

1, fignpge E1vdr $.31 ?;rme¢pf P otgtoee

The overall reeu‘.ts show an inoree so of 26 peroent 1n
ze total amount of potato products used (Table 3). There
:3 been a deollne 1n the use of raw potetoee not. only in the
31:11:11 amount. used (a. seven percent decrease), but. 9.1130 in
he relative proportion of raw potatoee used to the total.

3 all forms of potatoes used. While raw potatoes were still
be 131235; 931: single source of potofioes 111-1959 (57.3 percent
:f the total potatoes ueefl), their importance had r31?" inished
sonoléem‘oly among the sample establishments.

The actual amount of p. eoeeled fret: 3h fries used had
:1 3c 3336.: sod by 12 perce 1.13, but. the amount or 13331399133 whole
potatoes increased by 15.6 percent. However, the importance

of both of these profimts as a source of potatoes had de-

creased.

 

 

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not.“ a u u a cam 303.33 32? 63023.3

noun a or o 3 323 3:. .2883 33-58:. 3.
can more 3.8% ufioo « Em“ A» .3332” 55 go 353

F6 3 in? 3 “3.33.. 2a 33.3“ .335an .53 Raging no 393 9a5 23

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.35 owcdno .230an g . , , 3 a m

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63333333 .33 smuxwfimamo...m§n aafimfimxaobmwummmmmmawwumzfi mm; 3 swam". on.“ .. n 3nt

r31. . a .91 3., 1. .0“? g , .9 . _,..1
1113 use 3 01. 1‘333113311-33 1.51.3.3 11.131. 35-33 . '

I
‘30:”: ISO!“

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fl: in 331333 3mount used an} the rela 1113 133 33:33

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10t333 03131313, 3 3333131335 $933333 33.t3>13 33? aaehed

. r .3 _,—.3. 1 a 1.33-, ,'...._ . a .
13333, 3323.: 33133, 33393, etc. 3333 331 t1: 133 1:33 333333 3

4:“
L ‘a- -L 'mo- p 1’ '1' 1'“. .so 5‘ , (‘4'- M? on . b 'w 1“ Q . ‘ 1 a
1 t33 3133 31 “3 1,,1 33333;. 3:31, 13 331 333 p: 33-113 to
.9. . ‘2 - '2. ~ . . -. 3.“. - -. 1 1
:13r31n3 r311311a t33333 13 339 353 of t113 ‘3‘“3t.

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L -- I—~__" 9.1....s4u-t 1.4. 31"1 .. \-'L.4h./‘Aj--.J "-4.34 J‘_.‘

l.

1219 use of 3111142211 1 12:13:10.] p:1'¥3~-.w‘) 11130321113; 330131113 in-
?33233 from 1°37 to 1939. {Table 3). 13135.; the #1

13319 establishmenta w=se 33133 021135 .033 a131va13nt pounds

E pctatoea per week in granula 3333. At t3 at time, pota t3
13333 were met yet a: t>h3 TM“wt. The r33711t3 of tha seaand

73~vey showed that 1,333 equivalent pounds of pota sea 13
1333 fcr3 were being used per week 13 33111 establi mats.
.23 3:3 3f granules 333 1:3 33333 to 3331 23.0 03 equivalent

F}
33333 :3» week (3 BTL percent incr33sa). he 53333133 1

.3“.
.

3countefl for five per3ent of the tatal pctatoes 3333 in
257. whereaa 13 1959 they 333033333 f3“ 11 p eroont of the

:t31 (the second 133 3:3t 3:13333 or pot.3t333). Potato flakes

333 3233 for only 033 percent of the total, but the two
enydratei mashe3 potatfl prcdumta together 333033136 for
D fiercenfi of the total ‘otatoes 3333 b7 tag 333313 331011 eh-

Anatber 333 of looking at the tra.3.13 the usage at

skydrated potato products is to consider the portion of the

27

sibl marhet u3133 $1333 proflucta (:abla 4‘. :33 percent

zaashefl potatoes 3333 with fiehyirataa praduct3 has increased

21315313352213 3.33113 t2" 3 33.:- 313 est-«:11. 1.91331? 173116 in 1337
11y 13 percent of tha totalm shad potatjea used I '3?3 13 the

“rfi1‘tu’ tuna, in 195' 52 parcent of the mashed potatoes

9
:33 were 3333 with 533:5“at33 p?0£uct3. Thaugh tLa possible
{razet concentration 13 over 50 perdant, there 3133333 to be
:03 for further expansion. iha 111 31111006 of such an expanu
ion t33133 31303 among the 3333'3 33t3§17"“’*"t3 will be

3 ")3. “4&4.

130u333d in Chapter V.
It 13 interestin3 to co apare these re3u1ts noncorn113

be use of d hydratoa potatoes with the findi“r3 of 3 reat au-

“('2'

'1

”fit and hotal buyer survey made by the U.$. Department of

q

3ricu1tura in flew Crleans and Cincinnati in 1943. L333 than
me buyer in a hundrefl was u31n3 dehydrated potatoes at that
133. Further, fourufi'tha of the buyers indicated that they
0313 not be interested in using them.23 while tha results

f tb 3 Detroit study and this U. 3. Depa wt ent of Agriculture
tudy cannot be compared directly. it does 3179 some 1ndica~
ion as to be general trend in the institutional trade'a
xceptanoe of dehydrated potato products.

39:1 77! 0 11:70! 1 ~th; p‘rr 1:}? 714710 ran-:1 1' a???“ @137, 1A“! TVH'Ptr/i
‘. mm“ RHAfiii‘u GI IL. .3"-.. ..__.f-L- ii ) ‘mJ ’3‘ .)-t'. _. 3...! tin-"JD I‘I‘M'u'. —T

Tmfl
34.“.

Only nine establishments in the Detroit sample ware

‘30.: -J'

W

B

A. A3 A_‘ A.

20? te.o oPrefw 33333_33:33 “~~*°“”"*t end HotelD 1V3"3

a“. z~h ,
:9 C? 4,, p. c.

 

 

 

.AH canda can» uon3.uaoasvon «duo» Una no anvohon mm awn
£33603 :3.»qu wonqu .33.. bmma an» no awngfluu mg... no 3.13 0.3 $3839. in»?

\P

1 ‘1 . 141 14: 141 ‘41

, mend . 3!... . . mOfldflh . _ M .
mm ma n.nmm moon h.wm¢ b.hmn mexmwm
_ m.mn« m.om . mouanmaw , . .

Taro unogbufiuou

$3 5% . ._ .
mmma hmmn nmma‘ smog «.aso unauu>unoov
sues . . mmma umma
Icahn cognac ua.:.uom an.» gem can: nous -
-hnan mg“: no.» oozuoam aoacapm aonuohm auvoxxvumunx you
and: gonna; coaugohzon «o coaunahnon coaanongon can: nooauaom,uo

no acoogom unsou< «neon «c anuoau no can“ case-4 ooaaaaanm aoaennumvnm

 

.Aafiosama .npuoagaaflawaao ”adv aaozmoan oufiuon
momma! voadhchnoo flu: «was 023 nossom “lands amps On» «a fleaahonopa 3E. I a. 0.33“

a. u

fl
“.9 .. 4.! - ~ . 1 - L. ,
“~33? 3353 o; patsto ”31:33 in i?3?. 1 Ila bd;er3 3 tde@

.n‘ . .’ n \ 0' O :t‘. r , . . Q- p 3-1 .' Q n n: ’l n ‘ u
“Jiliabzvpua 3933 ESARG for qua reusane ufléf sxitnbeé um aha

n.e F; - Res 3033 given by the reg3lar users of flakes to the
~~33nw “th £13 you sali-a t3 nfita t9 3 3? 11

.4...‘-..'..., 4 J
534.911-03 (a). DGUI‘Citv’ 195)).

O

 

- ‘— _ -...__ u. ..-—..~ A” __|-__‘.‘ 4-4- u

 

 

 

 

Réasona for $witohing . Number at Times

to Potato E13: 3 . Meniionad
ate 6
ands up well in aerv 35 line 1
.ick prsparation, less labor required a 10
'33 waste I 2
933 3333 in preparation 1
°ico 2
:51 a? regaons 1.

Total: N ‘ 23 (b)

M _4‘. M

a) Inciufiee one buyer who was planning to switch to flakes in
he immediate future, and one buyer 31 $9 found flaies very sat-
sfactory qualityowiae, but was 33135 granules because of the

P106 advantage.

in Some tuyers 5333 mare than one reason.

he quiakno as of pregaaraticn and 1933 labor res uir ed were
eniianafi by almost all the buyers. The taste and quality

21An establ.ism at is classified as "a regular user” when
L11 the mashed potajoes gamma are 33:19 from the same
‘rOducto

*. C'" .

 

 

 

 

I-‘

r..- r :3

‘1‘:—
9‘ __-. ..4. f.

(-3.!) V
1’-
.5J v
'30

‘ .
"a
k..

0

.f
U

A

1 p.

L

- ‘2.
\J 'L’ Q
(j ,

V"!-

J- .L\4'. u-

l\‘

37“-

'1

...:.?.’:t

#3
£

nwv

1. ‘.
(‘1 -.‘.‘
J- ~.'

C.

3“

«.1
. C'
_,_)

". \J L...

.‘. f" .;. ..‘ ‘9. I...

L ‘4.) \J‘.. u
,..' ... ‘41.“,
Lain. CIA.

w

..
. .
1}.“

'l"
‘r .
I14.

.

‘ I

»-;_'..__4',,
,-

Jr

‘v

r

. ’2 '3 "~.

- II

7

n1 ;
. ..’ L.

L... I.

.‘nr

'w
:0

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‘—
L»
‘15.
bi“.

”an

‘L\

LN
g1 .
.I‘ O p.
(.4
m
‘ .
w' -‘ A»

v.4

v“:
a" r...

.—."‘. .

L'J.

l

J

L.‘ \

...,. .
.17

E:

l

D I
': ‘)
a
. ‘ .
.4» 2..

-4 3.
~54.

’4
4 a?" A-f‘?-.+
L§~1_|-,

ufi.

3.

 

AI‘

:1

.4},
.

41..

5"

'~-' L :up‘
1" .3

.b

m
3
..
\1
C
F
7.
o

.‘ ..‘
1;, Q ‘1.
f
L;
’L (:7
.2 5".

'—A—..-

~
‘o'

,c
3'?” .1 «n.

1.1..

If“ ".3
4.

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I

Y
c‘ .

hi

‘1

l'

u, 4~

1

n ?"h

C‘v".

31
swihfly although the evidence is limited.
Table 6 - Answers given by the non-user buyers (8.) contacted

by flake salesmen to the question, ”Why didn't you switch to
potato flakes?“ (:54 establishments, Detroit. 1959).

 

s . ~MO~Q_~_~*-m-m— “ma—M -~-.—.— -wr—uma—uc-Q—p

. Reasons for Hot dumber of Times Mentioned
Switching to Flakes

 

All Buyers Buyers Usin
Granules fa)

3aste, texture, quality or 35 5
flakes (b)

’resent labor and/or equipment 7 —
set up for other forms of

potatoes

rice-flakes too expensive com— 7 1
pared to product now using

icbes do not ”hold up” well on 7 1
serving line

mall volume or mashed potatoes 5 -
used

eed row for other types or 5 -

potatoes served

ear customer would object if 2 -
aware they were eating a.
dehydrated product

 

 

*ocedure too critical, too 2 1

much chance for error

;her reasons 10 5
Total 30 (0) 13 (c)

‘A‘
W

) Includes the 14 buyers using flakes on an emergency basis
only.

) This category includes 10 buyers who felt the present prod-
uct they were using was of better quality than the flakes.

g Some buyers gave more then one reason.
There are 12 buyers in this category. The remaining non-
users are using raw or prepeeled whole for their mashed.

 

     

1....-. .....Iu®,.l..wl..l.h.d.1fl1..u5dl L. 13- in
. . .

 

 

C H121? Lil-Wt IQ!

ANALYSIS OF TEE DEEiONSTRATION-v E-ITI-SRVIE' TEGEE‘IIQUL‘

The information obtained in the 1959 study makes it
esible to evaluate the use or the demonstration-interyies
chnique in predicting the market potential of a new insti-
.tional product. This evaluation helps to point out some
' the weaknesses of the demonstration-interview technique
1 were experienced in this particular study. These weak~
asses in turn suggest possible improvements which may make
115 technique more effective.

sunsets 0:? Barney senescence; cczzozrmrrs g}. use or

 

One of the most noticeable things when comparing the
ata from the two studies is the difference between the buyers'
sections to potato flakes in 1957 and their use or the prod-
ct in 1959. It is recalled that the results or the 1957
tudy (Chapter 11) indicated a high acceptance of potato
lakes among the sample establishments.

0! the 141 establishments included in the second survey,
’9 had been contacted by flake salesmen. Thus, 56 percent
:3 the sample establishments had an opportunity to carry
but the course of action they expressed in the 1957 study
:Table 7).

In 1957. 35 establishments in the group contested by
flake salesmen indicated that they would be immediate users

af'flakes, while an additonal 28 were potential users (based

 

 

 

swirl

m
t.

., ,irwglsilnliJIé
3 2‘
J [Hmhfllfi

 

7'-

JJ
>n finanmrket classifications used in 1357}. however, in 1959
nfiy nhuzeetablishnents were using -he flakes regularly, with

:n adciitfional l4 using them for emergencies only (lahle t).

 

 

 

 

 

sb137'c Comparison of tnc actual use of potato flc%:c in
.959inth the market classification nade in 193? (79 estab-
i are ants contacted by flake salesmen, Lctroit).
farhct Tetal Funhcr or Percent of Furhcr of Esta
lassifiw Number of Establish- Establish- lisneents in
estion Establishu ments ments 1959 Usins_f “-3
(1957) ments Contested Contacted rlakes Flakes for
-(1957) (1959) (1959) remu~ Emergency
larly Only (a)
inediete 63 :3 51 5 5
Jtential 43 23 58 2 5
) .arset ?~ 15 67 l 3
Total ‘ 141 79 56 9 l4

‘- L‘— .__. _‘ _.___ .

 

a) An establish.rsent is classified as an ”emsre pency user“ when
flakes (or granules) are Just used ithen the regular source
of potatoes is not available.

This difference between buyers' expectations and actual
urses ot‘action concerning flakes can be further illustrated
:referring to three specific questions asked in the 1957
ud,. Zln this study, after the interviewer had de'.20‘n stra ted

e reconstitution of the flakes, the buyers were given an

portunity to taste the sample. They were then asked several

estdxnan concerning the quality of the product. One or these

cations was, "1 ou‘d potato flakes be of satis “actcrjT qualits-

? use in your establishment?”. The response to this

 

sea-Li"

y—fi‘fi
' U -
|

 

31}
question showed that 67 of the 79 buyers who were contacted
by flake salesmen found flakes satisfactory (Table 8). It
will be noted, however, that only nine of these 67 buyers
were using the {ladies regularly in 1959. An additional 14
:rere using them Just on an emergency basis.
Fable 8 - Comparison of actual use of potato flutes in 1959
11th the answers given in 1957 to the question, ”Would
>otato [ladies be a satisfactory quality for use in your

astsbliShsent?” (79 establishments contacted by flake sales-
zen, Detroit).

 

   

Inrket Number of Opinion of Buyers Number of Estab-
lassifi- Esteblish- (1957) lishments in
cation ments Flakes Flakes Other 19’? Usine
(1957) Contested Setis~ Unsetis- Flakes Flakes
(1959) factory rectory Beau- for

larly . Emergency

 

(Number of Establishments)

 

mediate 34 34 O 0 6 6
itential 27 ‘24 o 3 2 5
I‘Zerket 16 9 6 l ' . l 3
Total 77* ~ 67 5 4 9 14 _

. AL A._ LA.

Dne establishment in the immediate and one in the potential
group did not answer this question.

To get a more direct estimate or the market potential
' potato flakes, the buyers were seized if they would purchase
ices it available. While 20 buyers felt that their final
ision x-Jould depend on the price of flakes and its substi-

es (1.6. grenules, raw, and prepeeled whole potatoes),

 

 

 

35
I 10 others gave various qualifying answers, 33 buyers
stud that the: would purchase the product (Taale 9). Only
of the 79 buyers contacted hy'flake salesmen stated defin-

6 iv that th ey

.— 4

.;£3;g.g;§ buy flakes. Yet only 25 establish-
nts were using flakes in 1959. and 1% of these were just
ergency users.

Another question used in 1957 to develop an estimate of
he market potential for flakes was, "would you be willing to
3 seven cents per pound for potato flakes on an equivalent
"ssh-weight basis?“.22 As in the other two illustrations,
:1y 3 small number or the buyers were actually following
zeir expected course of action in 1959 (Table 13), even in
lght or a more favorable price situation. Raw potato prices

are unusually high in the period before and during the second

urvey. While the average price reported by the sample estab-

 

ishnents (5.5 cents per equivalent pound) was still below

hat reported for potato flakes (5.6 cents per equivalent

 

cund), the price relationship between the two products was
uch more favorable than occurred in the 1957 study. The
veragc price for raw potatoes reported in 1957 was 4.2 cents
or equivalent pound, compared to the hypothetical price for
otato flakes of seven cents upon which the question was
need; It would seem that the price situation in 1959 would
ave encouraged a number of buyers to switch it they were

22See footnote 15 in Chapter II for the reason for select-
ing his particular price for flakes.

 

 

 

 

HT- .... a aill... iiiki

mod n“ noflpmonv can» enemas non mac moonm ”saucepan
o

. .h
emu ca 03» can mmooam across 0 one a“ one one censuses“ on» n“ uncenmfiagepec ego any

 

.1 ii
I‘ j . Jl

 

so . m a o“ om mo mm “so me . . «Hence

n H o , m ma H ma , senses on
m m an e o m um ,w ”assesses
e e o as 0 mm en , . speaemssH

Anacosnmaamoumm no nonsomv

 

4

monemaosm haemamwem essence . . AmmmHV

 

 

enemas , memeaml. mofihuaaesw chflhm no mam pom mom umuoepooo . . Ahmmav
mrwmm mum” ma moron tonne m monsoon mace; wagon mosesnmwaoepmm nofiueoaudmmeau
nomfianoumm no honssz hmmalmaormos seamen no season. . uexsmm

I

 

 

 

 

 

 

. .nu«0huom .cmsmowee.wmeau kn wwwmwwwmm
, . -s. . noun 0 e on monsoon so manor
mpnofinmflandpmo mp“ awuexsce can no one: menu «a i an a a Hooves no somntoosom I a canoe

\ - -- s - no . z .mma on seesaw no see
one o» ems“ an scent mess we see so“ m

v
t
i
5 cl. 4 n ‘
c . .1 u Ill.
. O
I.
I . t :- o
D
i . .l. v I Ii.

 

 

 

 

.oofiemosw menu tosses no: can macaw coupes on one ow
cram one .emsosw venues Heapseuom esp nfi one one euoauosofi one ca unmermfianeume moo Anv
.uoonote
neoconhnen one now aeoflsa u uses on»: men wagon to .eooepnmnoo one son noezuen moaaa
eeflueaet one no memes use hem on wnHAAfia on names hose mouse on» powwow on: mnemom Any

 

 

 

 

 

3 m 3 2 R 7: S. 338.
n H m m e S emu...” s as
m m m D e em 3353....
m. m e a 5m em 3333“”
honemaosm mameaswou Adv wooden Ammmuv
sealer.” more: messages. 3.. or“ 3.. sea eeuoeoeou Chm:
1.5.5. . isle .. iii! a
rows: owes cw muses no sea wanna nos mason mHuox, manornmflaoeumm noduooaudmmoao
inmmHQewwH mo Leanna own mmmm fifi.msomzm no tonsnz no homesz uoxemfi

 

.Auaohuom .fimsnoadm

shadow on no seesaw Cocoon

.coduoooo one 0» rmma on mtozmmm
esp zooaoon mouahdfisoo I OH 0H9

. ..3. s. . _ mumen urmdozinmoau puma
”a... h. 4 1n... . «LOO m1. «Mr.._..,..~m.1HQC.wm0 mmtv tm. _ .
ONLHH to we mp asism spasm men on Hedda“; on so» manor:

0 t .s 31¢ a,“
a)... .34.)..finm L.J...« . Ii lD3:)~« 4) 331. quufii

33

.ling to pay even a greater price precinct for flakes in

The accuracy of the market classification used in the

F? study might be questioned on the basis of the last three
-.les (T.able:s 8, 9 and 10). This score to be especially
jpsrent for the neediate market classification since one

the criteria or this classification was that the establish~
ci.t would use flakes rcru’ar (See p. 15). a cuick glance
i any one or these tables shows that only six or the 34
stablishnents in the immediate group were actually using
Lakes regain Mly However,rit will be shown below that this
lscrepency between the classification system anl the actual
3e pattern of flakes may have been caused by several factors
ther than the criteria selected for the classification

E DISC IEEIGV “EMU? Z? EV"EES' EXPECTA-

T?
TIO”S IH 1% fiDT _.. QUSELOE FL A? '33 Il_l?53

 

There are several factors which contribute to the differ-
:nces between buyers' expectations concerning their use of

'lakes in 1957 and their actual use of the product in 1959.

 

inc of these factors was the growing importance of granules

.3 a.source of mas hed potatoes (See Table 3). Since granules

 

are a close substitute for flakes as well as for raw potatoes
for the mashed form, it seems possible that the increase in

the use of granules may have affected the acceptance rate of

flakes.

Table 11 shows the number of establishments in the group

.d rdlriltlflJ. . l... N~

.‘ prim

 

37

. ‘,~. - NO; ‘ ,u- v-u (Inc—- .- v. c. 3". F: I" ‘7'
333 9313033“ ucin3 33w:1ulea in lop] and in 1339.

.33, tile. 133.133 1‘16??? 33:33 to 1.3 j‘.=3r<2o:-i1t~. In the laxamileto

3-, .- ‘ -3 - J" ‘- --I ‘4‘ - a 4- -— 11 ~ y“. “3‘ 4*!“ - I-v. ~ ~ l“! flow 3-- '- \- 1 _- - q

-. ‘1) U ‘- ‘ul ‘4. ) Uh": ai‘ .34 “J." 3‘ {-ISUQN; OJLCTCJQU J 111.3151) (A “Laknél Is; L313 r33 ‘EQ‘
I a-s 7 J3 Q r l . r f s t. -

1y incrccle; i on 7 percent to lo rare at. 13 co ‘ot33m

3: 3r“ n? :3 in l?57} 2L1 1979, fanne‘cetDEllr '”“1l h33
Ether] to "“Wlu‘l '3“:o.,.e 0??“ 13:31:10.3? he 13 the. “N: 43:43:

\a' E. r‘ vs . - ~w a 1; .—-. —.\.‘.‘
~33tficet333 33 9 only 3 33311 move towfirfl toe EECH”t$g3?

.A.‘ luv.

.". R: Q

"“‘H or» 31 1 ;_" 3;.
I.- want.- va’

13 ll - The usafie of firgnulee in 13 37 .3. 1933 3* those
"311°‘303+ coxtectcfl bv fla o Polor3on (79 o"trrllihnent:,

\4 t...

 

 

 

 

g V *—
1“. A
9' ,. ’ , ‘Y 1 I: -1 ' fl n
‘1’""‘ s ‘ “V"‘iv' I"\f “'I'NV‘ ‘ « " ‘-" 'fl‘l “:tJ " fl -\
- L. 1t.L "JL w} -1 .41. Aug-L OJ. --'.A'._.‘ l. n)- 1 ‘ J‘ C')ii 3.1. ._'a ‘t_ ”‘3‘.
. "s 4. 1.- 9 j - . l . V v 1 _
31"" .;f'- “‘3. 4‘ ‘I r1 "*3. 3 ‘fl - ‘ ~~~\( --
- kri- «an-3U prv-I‘l. .._....4". ll... - A‘VP-ZIU I ‘J 4. t J.“ Ac...‘( {.653 UKJ111
‘ 4‘ ‘ . I" r' u“: r— \'\ ‘t v - - H'- s . - - -v Q
U o: c lite u””‘fi11?fi .3”, 1"1f “curl“: 3”“ l."rlv
r“ A ‘ an“? —. '_ ‘33—'er “ -‘* ‘ =.mm-u9w;--
‘ I ) 1" ,,' (A ‘ 1I { 1 1 v I ‘
j | .o’ J ’4 * - n/ 'h J par; I"—’ J I .J ’
I;___ ,— Cw

 

 

' " '5'. ‘ "I'— .’~ '“7 f' '1 r
.‘.3-..- 1 C‘ 3/) J 7 l l a 2 (EU. 0

!
”ii-‘11:]. 23: O jj‘ nau- l)".: 1

 

 

 

Tf'w‘ . . , f. . ._ a1 .- _ - -" --. I v“ —- . L - - A .. ._ .
Ire mwwv. 31 “03 33333 +3 3*: 3’7 1‘3 133*3 rw “n+wflfin
,. u... ~J ~. \A 11.. duh .J . -..~'. Al .- xJ ~‘.' ~~ J -.4I- ~.--,q 9 ,_ ‘- \I‘ «.41! o y». ‘ 'u‘ '.. J -J -' U‘-moJ.‘.v' .J
‘ '1“‘ -\-T- 1 "no“m‘x v‘" ~- "h’fi’w" "SW“G ‘3 ‘n \"41 n ‘3»-
£I l u ‘ t I ! l ‘l l ’ p ' 3
, .. - - J J .. L - 4~A .p P ‘J “4‘ - a L J.- LL. K.’ L“. . J .0 .. I -L .4 -_J La‘ q. _o - g. 14 J
1 t 9.4 fir |‘ vs 0
z r3 3 .‘w ' “ W 131 ~~ori+~—v' r3 ‘t L '1IL ‘7‘)”;T. ’ '1 rs ‘3 A “' 4“, ""n‘r/“u 7v
A. #1... \ .I 1 .. J .,' a” t. -.~' g .A. u,‘ .3. V Q. ~ ._ .u .1 - .- .4- .r ‘1 . .. —/ O.- a ' ~53
:-
‘ *5 I:“‘1‘1“‘"\r” 'r’nrc-‘ar r‘ «" “‘“' "1 ‘- )£t 7"" ‘ " ’3 '1‘} C'n\-
/ \‘ -‘ -A 3 —- " ‘ ” v ‘- -; - 11 l I . J ‘- ~n ‘0 J l 4 ‘u. I .’ ~ 4 ’ ' L -‘- 3.1

40

1‘; reason 13 .313 fact hat potato £152,333 has 3339:: on the mar-
afar only six 30;“ Ttha prior to t? e 3300 M sur363. It 13

s3ibla that mafly bu3'w mad 59003 3grauula naera before

Tags were availM 13. 3130, when the potato fluke preduct

L
{C

a introiuood, m= t of tLa 8&133 contc.cL3 were maJa by sales-
1 from them flufa -3 turel, rather than tLrough the normil
1&3 ch“nnola (1.9. t.3o food brfL rs . The p303 act was
in; sm.& und‘zfl only two‘prilate jflimjjb 3n tha oth33 hand,
333193 had been ou-tho market for some time. The sales
re made through normal s'les char.els, and the proauot was
135 sold uni er several national branda. Thus, he granules
3 more time for acceptance and likeLy had Vida? sales oonu
ots through the food brokers than tha flakes had through
mpany saloemen. In afifiitlon, nothing was known oonoerning
o intensity or quality of the £113 sales poo? am 0th
:3 knowing that "contact“ had been made.

The price relationship botuee Ii granules and flakes also

vored the use of granules. At the time of the second survey,

.-a'
F

a granules were 4.9 cents par equivalent pound while flakes

re 6.6 cents per equivalent pound. Some of the buyers,

 

”kw ‘h-

I...
a
.1
l
.

ile preferring the flakes. may have uaad the granules be-
use of this price differential (seven of tho non-users of
akes mentioned price as a reason for not using the product.
9 Table 5).

-here is also the possibility hat a number of the buyers

y have been dissatisfied with tha quality, texture and

ate 0? flakes through their failure to properly prepare

:jprofiact. The bulk dunaitj of tatcto 11323: is variable;
‘1" "it 13 pflfiw11k3 t13t atteflpts by i33tituti333 to P33

.. .Q , .. . . . . ..._‘ 1 1' - A .' .n . .1 . ._ _.. ,. . '1 ‘. .'. J. 1 .- _v 1 . ... ,
" .1 ‘, .,t ‘l .3’.‘ ' : 5‘ 1 \~.' _... I .3 ‘ '3‘3... I 3 , 4‘ ‘ " \
J. .' .' \ r ‘3 -. Limb [:3 ' '.: ‘7’ ' J. L; R-‘ a!- L’ I. I. (J \1‘ L '1' '.' H." J- 3.1 I '~.- ‘.‘ U Lm \ ' to L V In \- In) | a . |'. J. ‘ .l
v .’

.L~ 0_ _ a ' F :u ., .. 9 _ ~.1!-.--» ., -3, '.1 ,. 1. 1,.,.". “.12... ,~~
“Lit-1‘5; {301.3313 luau ti) VLL'ELJJH; L2 '..s.--4.L'-\-:.-_, Us. L144} .s.-.',.".3;.:.)u Lu cut-C)";

T 3.133331tt17 313;:3t15f33tion'with the‘broJuct".£9 Such
'33r3 in firebyrgtion may account for part of t39 l3rje nunb3r
133-" :333 of fflxfl;33 :vm1tlcniznj tmfxga. taxinuna and (I11'1*"
L 3333333 far not using the psoduct (333 Table 6).

Other conirlbutin; f3ctors to the ovcr3l failure of
rytrs to act :5 they haj axpeetcfl are:

1. Z33 buyers' origifizl Opinions of potato flakes taro
11331.1 011. the 113.313 of a 3:: :11 31:1 lec;11‘c”ully 1133353133; 1b
:3 intervlawnr. Since the b333“3 did “Ob hJV3 a chugce to

::t tie firofluct in 3ctu31 use vor 3 period of time, th3y no

~nbt were not 3U3r3 of some of the factors which 33g 33 e

3
f!
K3
(.3
b.-
H
'3
'1.)
C?"
r)
”‘3
C 2
(D
*1:
rd
'3

131333033 th3ir lat

9 Th333 333 33 way of checPiaf the qumlity of th3

9
313t0 fiche profluct th3t was used by the buyers who had

3133 £13333 31d r3133 tad tlem. The 3333133 3333 in tne 9:7

317: wvvnn 3W33 n1 1* WIWFT°“O. 13133? ‘333YVW' PW 1 .(u 3
.o _ . . .11. J C 4.. \u ..«..- b .L' J.‘ . . . J . .-. I O t; can «I _ ‘15 .

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‘4

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33333, the 3333133 a3r3 lxaivlflunlly 33313j3J in 3 heat-

3:13” trllzzinstc fall 1133? 313333 in 3 £31313: 0333333rd

. val,

fin w“
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:23 It i

'13“? thn 3r311t3 cf tfie £13333 V33 331 33 filih “3 hhé

r1. .. .. (- A")
a 13:17:. ELL-.9

 

53.3.3.1.ng usgfi in 1357, TEES) 301223I’C 11-11. "N‘Djdt‘ts 511.3? 3,130 have

Ln the teahnolsgy of m1fiafasturinx griaulas which would have

2159 them 1 close? csnpfitltar to £11111 qu111t3~w111.

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:3 give ansxars that would please the i~L arviauer. rather txan

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8
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;._2 ~111g th1ir 3113 93141031.1

5. ”1109 the claasifiaation of eaeh establishment was

1‘!

£1519 that 13111.1313: b11331 m1: h171 influ‘ncal tha elasam
.flcatlcn chosen fa? eazh of the establishments.
6. A numoer of the 511919 BBL1911131~ ta have nct yet
:331 Contactal by pctato ticks salesmex. Thus, some or the.
poteatial usara ”111 nut yet had an Opgaptunltf to pur3h1sa
;La prziuct.
7. Twenty-three eatablishmenta were not included in the IT
.339 stady results. Of these 23 eatabllanments, 15 were in
,E3 immeaiata market classification. Sons of theaa estab-

.1ahmant3 11y have suitahsd to flakes. It waa fauna, however.

 

,11t m¢at of these establish'ant* were small in 5116 (T able 1).

s; W? 113 t:19 n“nber of £1114 users m1y have baan larger 1f

heae establiahments had been included, it is questionable as

La whether the total amount of flakes used would have bean

.ltere da azapre? 11bly. ‘

8. Tr aditlon, hefijit, and prejudice are faouors which

 

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1+5

.4. ..-.--

an‘iifi LL“"LL CLLLLLLL abiun, all :3 of the establishments

‘;,LL.cLu 5.5LLL: u in tLula l) gheala be vain mg a dehyérated

®TOQEXJPBQJIJQLy for thLir mashed DO $3037. This obviou sly
Lsrmfi;the BLLe. -huL, the clLeaL' Ilcation system usaé still
:wnuct’ucccnaiierud vert accurate when used to predict tha'
:xwdnct :m-cf indiviiual eatahll hzents.

iflufl203%sifl%Tifl? the ova?all ugage 3f d<fl rovs+cfl mashed
a :j th: 3:3tcelt 832313, the two pfieilstIVL

TLctLPs {which wvre dariVufi tram the market classificatien

3am did tha pradiotiona of pvédast uga by Lnéi?idual antabm
Lshflelia. 11 133?, it Was found that only five parcent 9?
La pot ataes usefl Hera t121e denydrP tea typa.
,3? sandy, 1t hLL estimated that the 1mm diate market for

Lhydvated mtuhed potato praiueta 4:93; public~eatiz 15 p a: a
~Lli be 2: percbnt of ths tctal pot anves us ai by the estab~

'3

”’9‘ _ 0.13.12“ ... . . . _‘ v. . i- i x .. . ’9‘ ”- :

~

.0. --._ " ., , .‘,.. my, 30.3., . . .. .,..
“La tDb&L &A0du§. Luu uLua pvwsegtud

A.

$533 a... 93 pi: went. 3;? 'i':
’3able 3 shaved that the establishmenta 1n the Detroit
727.113 were actually 12.32.39; 20 {figment at the tat-79.3. 35,1.ttfiae
fin: déhyfiratej mashed potato form. 11h113 the current
gyafiaf d8;¥d?&§@a mas she d patato prolusts in the sample is
3.3. 3.35 percent. below the level prefii t5
Icat, :1t 15 onlv two par~p~t 1619: the level pvedictea far
izmvadiate market. Vhen co ueiéeriLg the fact that 03% ct

fic5nr51rat1d products (:1 138} hai been on tLe Detroit

 

 

 

 

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”' Total Dehydrated
Mashed Potato Products
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e Granules
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100 1340
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1955 19:36 1957 1958 1959 1960
*Estimated by the National Potato Council

CrOp Year

Mjurwe 2 - United States production of dehydrated mashed potato
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:38
2.563331‘ccnt (a. 6.3,? increase in the amount sold).

In addition to pricing, the dehydrated meshed potato in—

‘

dust-3'3; :rrv find igicrearased advertising and grvrorryotions helpful

'v
in amending; the retail den end. These dehydrated forms ere

71 ‘
generally of high iuelity.J It is necessary, however, tax":

1..
\—

the census-ere become arm-ire of the produce and that they

- 9
bemmezmcustomed to the idea of us ng an "instant" dehydrated
product.

Thme is also the possibility of increasing sales through
dungeslh.tke size of the retail container. As was mentioned
ecrlhfly the cost of the container is one of the major reasons
why Huareteil price of flakes is high compared to the price
tetoeo. It would seem worthwhile to investigate the
acceptance of larger retell containers, passing the savings
11 onchcgin, costs on to the consumer. ”his may help to make
the retail price of flakes closer to that of raw potatoes.
us, increasing he competitive position of flakes. This in
urn would increase the substitutebility of flakes for res

3tet-oes,32 and would expand the retail market potential for

rie product.
The industrv therefore has two possible courses of

ticni. It can.curteil its expansion so that the output will

 

‘21 'VIrnetsht flashed Potatoes", Consuner Reports, Volume 24,

temntxer* 1959, pp. 465-467.
.O -q
'“‘ Elie :reteil sales test conducted in 1950 showed no sig-

.c:tni; snsbstitutehility be‘ween flakes (and all dehydrated

15x5
in tr e.

;lii:3 Ingesticuler test (See Greig, Strand, and Le-uclere,
Sit... p. 22)

 

 

gnotneto products) and row potatoes within the price levels

 

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Volume 33, 1956.

Mo cGrsth, E. J., and Sills, H. 3., Resteurnnt Aeeoo gne‘
of Dthdrofro en Pegs, Karketing Res earch fiepox t 193,

 

;“ioultursl 3cr*et1n~ Service, fierketP w.rch Division,
H.S. Department of Agriculture, ”Acnln"ton, D. 0., 1957.

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MICHIGAN STATE UNIVERSITY I

I I IIIIII “WIN

II

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