ABSTRACT

Traditional master plan preparation examined alterna-
tive methods of accomplishing improvements in the community.
The plan, however, did not state these alternatives in a
formal manner, or in any way incorporated these alternatives
in the text of the plano The “policy plan“ presented
alternatives as one of its essential components. These
alternatives were presented to the decision makers for final
approval and effectuation of the alternative they chose to
serve the community best. While the “policy plan“ involved
the decision makers in initial policy judgments, the process
of projecting the outcomes of the policies remained on an
intuitive level. Since the decision to accept a particular
package of policies can set a reaction affecting literally
thousands of other development decisions by private interest,
the outcomes should be considered prior to the acceptance
of the packageo

This paper considers the drawbacks of previous
methods of generating spatial develOpment alternatives.

This is accomplished by evaluating the works of the utopian
writers and the more recent works published by the various
planning agencieso These works point out the need for a
comprehensive approacho They further point out the need

for a rational decision making frameworko

John Jacques Shannin

The concepts considered and develOped as a framework
for generating alternatives include: a goal formulation
frameworkflbased on the needs, wants, and desires of the
peOple, the\§ystems approadh for the evaluation of all the
components, decision theory with special emphasis on the
relationship between the strategies and the outcomes, and
finally some operations research tools_such as simulation
models for the incorporation of uncontrollable variables in-
to the decision frameworko

It is the thesis of this paper that if the above
tools are used, the decision makers can choose among the
outcomes that he feels to be most desirable to the community.
These outcomes,(the paper will stress the structural variety),
can be translated to strategies and hence into plans. This
method incorporates the advantage of considering all the
possible factors of growth rather than just the factors that

planners have chosen in the past to state and amplifyo

GENERATION AND EVALUATION OF ALTERNATIVE
SPATIAL PATTERNS FOR THE URBAN REGION

by

John Jacques Shannin

A THES IS
Submitted to
Michigan State University

in partial fulfillment of the requirements
for the degree of

MASTER IN URBAN PLANNING

School of Urban Planning
and Landscape Architecture

1965

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

The writer gratefully acknowledges the thoughts and
ideas imparted to him by numerous lectures, seminars , and
informal discussions during his formal graduate planning
education. It is for this reason that a sincere debt of
gratitude is owed to the entire staff of the School of
Urban Planning at Midhigan State University.

The writer is eSpecially grateful to Professor
Stewart Marquis, whose guidance, constructive criticism,
helpful assistance, and most importantly, his unflaging
interest and encouragement be deeply appreciated.

The acknowledgements will not be complete without
the mention of Messrs. Donald Graham and Richard Bolan who
contributed the first and most lasting impressions of the
planning process on the writer, and Messrs. Charles Blessing
and Francis Bennett who made the first application of the
ideas presented in the thesis possible.

Lastly, the writer is thankful for the indirect
assistance provided him by his fellow graduate students and
professional colleagues through their numerous discussions

and debates of the various planning issues°

ii

TABLE OF CONTENTS

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS .................................
TABLE OF CONTENTS ooconcoooooooooooooooooooooooooo
LIST OF FIGURES ..o..o.oo...oo-..........o......o.
INTRODUCTION ooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

CHAPTER
I A New Approach to Alternative Spatial

Patterns 0000.00.00.00...0.0.00.0..0000.

The Planning Process ...............
The Role of Alternatives ...........
The ayatans ApproaCh 0.000.000.0000.
The Goal Formulation Process .......
DeCiSion Theory oooooeoooooooooooooo
Considerations of a NeW'Methodology.

II Focus on Goals, Problems, Issues, and
POIiCies 0.00.00000000.00.00.00000000000

A BynOpsis of Regional PrOblems,
Issues, and Trends ooooooooeoooooo
Major New Policies Affecting the

Region oooooooo0000000000000000000

III Conceptual Background of Spatial

Patterns coo-cocoooooooooeoeoooooooooooo

Historical Precedents ..............
Evaluation of the Ideal Patterns ...
Theoretical Spatial Patterns .......

IV. Recent Utilization of Spatial Patterns
in the Field of Urban Planning .........

A Review of Recent Planning
Publications oooooooooooooeooooooo

Evaluation, critique, and
Conclusion ..........o............

111

48

52
58

72
72

83
89

100

100
122

Page

CHAPTER
V. Models and Operations Research
Temniques 0.00000000000000.00000000000000000 130
The Decision Framework .................. 131
Models 0.00.0000.00000000000000.000000000 135
Operations ResearCh TGChniq'ueS 0.0.0.0000 152
VI Application and Summary ..................... 158

BIBLIOGWHY 000.00.00.0000000.0.°O9.0.6.0...000000.O.. 17o

iv

FIGURE
1.

mmqpmnw

10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
21.
22.

LIST OF FIGURES

The Planning Process ......................
A Systems Analysis Framework ..............
A Goal Formulation Process ......o.........
Tactical Evaluation of Systems ............
A Decision Making MOdel ...................
Correlation of Goals and Problems .........
Urban Travel Trends and Consequences ......
A classification of Ideal Paterns .........
Illustration of Spatial Patterns ..........
A Summary of Reviewed Patterns ............
A Classification of Reviewed Patterns .....
An Evaluation Framework ......o............

An Input-Output MOdel ooooooooooooooooooooo

Suggested Evaluation Criteria .............

'Comparative Analysis of Patterns ......o...

Evaluation Criteria Sheet .................
A Comprehensive Planning Framework .....o..
The Decision Framework ....................
The Model Building Process oooooooooooooooo
A Classification System of Models .........
A Classification of Mathematical Models ...
Spatial Outcomes Derivation coo-00900000000

V

29
38
47
51
62
92
94
97
98
99
104
109
116
123
132
133
139
143
145
161

Page

FIGURE
23. file GrOWth Model 00.000000000.00.00.000000000 162

24. The Selection Process ....................... 163
25. Summary Of concepts ooooooooooooooocoo-00.000 167
26. Application of Concepts ..................... 168

27. Relationship of Concepts .................... 169

vi

INTRODUCTION

“To make order again out of the present
Metropolitan eXplosion we must begin with its
antethesis: a small scale urban implosion or
assemblage of urban elements. Only by first
unifying the parts can a larger whole, the
“urban grid“, a highly organized regional net-
work of cities and urban institutions, come
into existence."

Lewis Mumford

The above quotation is an eloquent statement suggest-
ing a methodology to achieve order in the urban region.

This thesis prOposes a similar aim, that of considering the
most significant alternative elements of urban growth in
order to achieve an Optimum arrangement consistent with the
objectives of both the decision makers and, more important,
the peOple themselves.

Planning is headed towards a larger and more
reaponsible role in the decision-making process. The
decisions will encompass greater numbers of peOple and a
wider spatial coverage. It is, therefore, imperative that
the planner should consider all relevant aspects of growth
in order to prOpose and help effectuate policies in the format
of a plan.

It is not sufficient to understand the physical

land use arrangements and the “areal“ patterns that can be

2
possible through the manipulation of the various elements,
but the impact that the various arrangements can produce
on the future well-being of the region. This new approadh
shifts the emphasis of the planner from the intuitive
design approach to an objective approach using a wide range
of methods to eXplain and relate all the environmental
phenomena stemming from the interaction of man with his
environment and to organize a new decision-making framework
to guide development policies. In other words, the proposed
approach will be related to management planning methods
where the planner will be interested in defining the problems,
issues, needs, and Opportunities within his region: consider-
ing a set of alternative ways of solving the problems while
abiding by certain restraints imposed on him; and finally
recommending the possible outcomes taking into consideration
various “costs“ required of the community to achieve sudh
policies.

In view of the above discussion; the purpose of this
thesis is to present new considerations for the generation
and evaluation of alternative Spatial patterns for the
region. This objective will be developed as follows:

Chapter I will introduce an approach to alternative
selection based on fulfilling the human requirements as they
are manifested in a hierarchy of goals to be achieved. The
system approadh will be used extensively since it
incorporates desirable conceptual features that can clarify

the processes under consideration. Other concepts also

3
utilized will include the "policy approac " and "decision
theory”. It is evident that all these concepts are inter-
related and indivisible and thus should be discussed jointly.

Chapter II will present and outline the present
problems, and issues as they affect the environment Which
will require our attention. Also, presented will be some of
the current policy prOposals to alleviate and solve these
problems which should be utilized by the planner.

Chapter III will discuss some of the possible
solutions in the form of 'utOpias' or “ideal communities' as
they have been proposed by persons concerned with the issues
of their own periods, along with lessons applicable to our
own period.

Chapter IV will consist of a review of recent
planning efforts dealing with the subject of alternatives
and the results of sudh efforts on the immediate area of
concern as well as the effect on the planning profession.

Chapter V will present considerations of further
techniques that can be useful in alternative generation,
projection, and evaluation. These will include methods
loosely grouped under “operations research“ such as program-
ming and modeling techniques.

Chapter VI will sum up the discussion by reviewing
the major concepts as they have been presented in the paper
and the way these concepts can be applied to the process of

generating alternative Spatial patterns for the urban region.

CHAPTER I
A NEW APPROACH TO ALTERNATIVE
SPATIAL PATTERNS

Since the inception of the urban planning profession,
the planning process has been concerned with the preparation
of a design, a conceptualization of the form of the city,
and with policies for urban growtho All these attempts have
had the same basic objectives - an understanding of and a
device for planning the future of the community whether at
the city, the metropolitan or the regional scale. There has
not been, however, a consensus on the best way to achieve
this objective. The planning profession has seized on
various methodologies and, depending on the persuasiveness
and appeal of the originator, whether a person or an agency,
has followed and expanded that original proposal into a
planning requirement which became indispensable until a new
idea was accepted which replaced the formerly irreplaceable
portion of the process. This transition of ideas and their
implementation by the planning profession is a desirable
feature, since imagination, thoughts and thoroughness are
indispensable attributes of planning.

The latest vogue in the planning process is the
“policy plan" and its accompanying feature, the consideration

of alternatives. The alternatives have, however, been mere

5
illustrations in graphic form with very little reasoning why
these patterns are suggested. In this paper some of these
approaches and their shortcomings will be discussed in more
detail.

The approach suggested in this paper is based on the
criteria that make up the detail of the Spatial pattern,
rather than the generalized shape and form. It is the
thesis of this paper that the spatial patterns for the urban
region must be evaluated at the micro scale rather than the
macro scale. The qualities that have been attributed to
various patterns such as “flexibility", "linkages”, “cpen
‘space preservation" etc. can be obtained within more than
one overall form for the region and this shifts the
decision regarding the best form back to the more detailed,
.decision level.

Prior to describing the approach suggested, we need
to define and explain the concepts that are to be utilized.
The discussion will cover: the planning process, the role
of alternatives, the systems approach, decision making and
policies, the goal formulation process, and finally the

suggested approach.
The Planning_Process

The planning process is discussed at this point as
a means of clarifying the relationship of the goals,
policies, and alternatives to the overall process and at the
same time emphasizing the elements leading to rational

decisions.

6
Webber provides a clear and concise definition of
the process as follows:
Planning is that process of making rational decisions
about future goals and future courses of action which
relies upon explicit tracings of the repercussions and
of the value implications associated with alternative
courses of action, and, in turn, requires explicit
evaluation and choice among the alternative matching
goal-action sets.1

The planning process (including the method of policy making)

can be divided into four steps as follows:

1. ”Problem definition: This section of the process
contains a description ofthe problems and issues facing the
region at the time the study is being undertaken and the
understanding of the situation through forecasting future
conditions under the existing trends and policies of that
period. This section must emphasize the determination of
"criticalfactors“ - the trends that must be altered if
progress is to be brought about through new actions.

2. Policy making: General directions or courses of
action are established in this section of the plan, in the
interest of the population as it relates to the physical
develOpment of the community. The planner at this point

prOposes and formulates policies (policies are considered to

 

1Melvin M. Webber. "The Prospects for Policies
Planning,” The Urban Condition, edited by Leonard Duhl,
Basic Books, Inc., New York, 1963, p. 320.

7

be administrative judgments on broad objectives) designed to
bring about the achievement of the community goals and
guide the formulation of plans and programs, These policies
should be adOpted by the decision makers prior to proceeding
to the next step, Mthe plan'o itselfo

3, The Comprehensive Plan: This document translates
agreed upon policies into specific preposals for the future
growth and development of the community, The plan will be
concerned with general locations and extent of the specific
recommendations, such as the need for general location, and
size of regional parkso

4, The fProgram”: Sometimes this part of the process
is called the {implementation phase” of planningo The term
program, however, is a more suitable term since it connotes
a schedule or a sequence of activitieso The program in
this case will combine an ”action plan” (which is a detailed
program for a specific series of actions to be taken, eog.
urban renewal project plan) with a time table for actions,
it should outline the responsibilities of the various
agencies involved and the costs to be shared or contributed,

This program phase should in turn be divided into
longwrange and shortmrange programso The longerange
program is general in nature and is most useful as a longu
term guide to the various agencies involved in the planning
process, regarding long range financial and administrative
matters, The shorturange program, on the other hand, is

more of a "capital improvement program” where budgets are

8
Specific, and the projects to be undertaken are listed in
details

The process as it has been outlined above should
involve the people, the legislators, and the administrators,
eSpecially at the “policy making“ phase, This participation
and the process itself are illustrated in diagram 10
Further in the paper the planning process will be
presented in more detail to aid in the presentation of
procedures suggested in this paper,

The terms used in describing the planning process
in this section are the current terminology being used by
the planning profession, The terms "plan" and "program”
in the laSt phase described above can be interchangeable
depending on the definition of each, In order to clarify
this point, the following definitions are given:

Plan: The plan is a proposed course of action based
on facts and projection of data into the futureo

Program: The program is a sequence of actions proposed
to be undertaken according to a prescribed time

table, The program is based on the pr0posals
of the plano

The Role of Alternatives

Until recently the planning process concentrated all
its efforts in producing a ”master plan“ which included
recommendations based on professional judgmento The shift
to the policy plan has provided an emphasis on choice by the
people and the decision makers regarding the policies and

actions they wish to pursue in order to achieve community

FIGURE :1.

The Planning Process (General)

 

______________ public participation

 

 

 

 

 

1. Problem Definition
2. Policy making ------------------- public, legislative,
and administrative
participation

 

 

 

3. The Comprehensive Plan ---------- staff function

~ (for review and
decision by adminis-
tration, legislature,
and the public)

 

4. The Program
- long range ------------------- Governmental Agencies
- short range (same as above)

 

 

 

lO

objectiveso It also provides the decision maker with a means
of selecting these community objectiveso

Since the politician in the final analysis is going
to accept or reject the plan, the planner has to provide
him with reasons why a preposed course of action should be
followed, This can best be achieved through the presenta-
tion of detailed information on the advantages and dis-
advantages of alternative courses of actions to adhieve
certain goals, clarifying the outcomes or consequences of
eadh.

Herbert Simon elucidates the above discussion as

follows:

The professional decision maker, in city planning

or in any field where he is in the role of tedhnical
advisor to a consumer, is in a position where, through
his planning and projecting activities, he can propose
alternatives, He can suggest new ways of building a
cityo He doesn't simply select out of a kit of exist-
ing designs the one that he thinks is going to be the
best for the cityo His job is to formulate alternatives
which have not been prOposed previouslyo Any theory

of decision making, which would be relevant to the city
planning process, would have to insure that alternatives
are generated, so that the professional planners and the
Opinion leaders could decide among meaningful alternativeso

Simon further states that the professional planner
plays a large role in
Creating images of cities for the contemplation and

consideration of the Opinion leaders who must make
decisions related to the selected imageo2

 

2Simon, Herberto “Decision Making and Planning,“
Planning and the Urban Community, edited by Harvey 80 Perloff,
University of Pittsburg Press, 1961, p0 1920

11

The planning profession has shown its acceptance of
the new role of planning - thatcf a thorough, objective
analysis of all the facets of the urban problems in order to
present “strategies“ to be further utilized in the decision
making processo The recent crop of plans and publications
have reflected this new trend, A fuller review of these
reports will be brought out in chapter four. The bulk of
the work, however, has dealt with “mapped“'form alternatives”o
The various alternative spatial patterns have been analyzed
with the specific region and its own unique problems in
mind and a preferred pattern for future growth and develOpu
ment selected. Among the alternatives most frequently used
are: “Present Trends", “Planned Sprawl“,”Radial Corridors",
"New Towns“, “Concentration", and “Linear City"o Most of
these alternatives have been based on "ideal" and "Utopian“
communities, previously proposed by city planning theorists
or philosophers. These works will also be discussed in more
detail in chapter threeo

It is relevant at this point to define What we mean
bykfiflternative Patterns“, {gorm", and “Mappable"9 Forms
and patterns are interchangeable terms throughout this paper
and thus have the same definition --§ spatial arrangement
of structural components in the region, The components consist

‘~ g... ,

of fixedfland movable objects and spaces that reflect a7
pagticular_shape. The fixed components are static
facilities such as tOpography, drainage, roads and physical

land uses (to differentiate it from land use activities).

12
Moveable components on the other hand consist of movable
objects and activities, such as people, flows such as
tranSportation, and land use activitieso Whenever these
components are drawn on a map, they reflect the actual land
activities and structureso The map can, however, be a
projection of component groupings, thus reflecting future
form, this variety is what we refer to as ffiappableform“o

The patterns defined above should be further
classified as dealing with a hypothetical region that is
not limited by size, terrain, or climate, and should be
applicable to any existing urbanizing regiono The patterns
should identify structural characteristics significant at
the metropolitan and regional scale whiCh can be controlled
at that scale and which can have totally different effects
with different arrangements at that scalea This paper will
be chiefly concerned with the physical aSpects of the
arrangements rather than the distinct distribution of the
Specialized activities within each cityo We should not,
however, lose sight of the implications of these physical
arrangements on the social, economic, and psydhological
patterns of the region.

The use of alternatives should not, by any means, be
confined to the ”Mappable" varietyo It is true, however,
that the form alternatives provide the following advantages:

(1) They formalize the urban planner"s conceptual

thinking in regards to urban physical growtho

13

(2) They provide an ideal visual aid to convey
possible outcomes to the public and the decision makers.

(3) They excite the imagination and thus help
stimulate the thinking of the public in regards to their
ambitions for the region.

(4) Through the stimulation of thought they en-
courage public participation in public hearings and public
discussions regarding the community.

Besides alternative patterns, the planner should
also consider verbal "policy" alternatives. This approaCh
was prOposed by Stephen Nelson,3 in a thesis presented to
Midhigan State University. Nelson prOposesua hierarchy of
_pcligies including strategic policies, whiCh are divided
into/outcome and action policies, and tactical policies.
Strategic outcome policies deal with the broad, Spatial
interpretation of goals and are verbal counterparts to
spatial patternso Strategic action policies, in turn, are
broad actions designed to “promote and create their out-
comes“. Finally, tactical policies are "decision rules
concerning specific methods of procedurefor achieving the
strategic policies." The policies should then be trans-
lated into detailed_£ecommendationsin the comprehensive

plan. This approaCh is illustrated in the following examples

presented by Nelson:

 

3Nelson, Stephen C. The Policy ApproaCh in Urban
and Regional Planning, unpublished thesis presented to
Michigan State University in 1964, pp. 76-79.

14

"l. a. Strategig_9utcome Policy - a more balanced and
stable economic base. This might be displayed as a statistical
distribution of employment to manufacturing, service retail,
wholesale, government, and agriculture; or as desirable
economic input and output flow levels and rates.

b. Strgtegic Action Poligy - encourage the ex-
pansion of heavy industrial activity in the planning area.

c. Tactical_Poligy - organize an industrial
deve10pment committee: offer tax concessions to desirable
industries: put a high priority on improving the functional
environment of industry.

d. Comprehensive Plan Recommendations - develop
industrial parks at such and such locations; improve the
major highway access: put in a new sewage disposal plant.

2. a. Strategic Outcome Policy - a strong single
central core area serving as the symbolic and functional
focal point of the entire planning area.

b. Strategic Action Policy - increase the density
of core area activities: renew the core area facilities
functionally and esthetically: develop a strong symbolic
image: promote residential living in the core: reduce
traffic flow within the core area.

c. Tactigal Policy - route through-traffic around
the core area: provide perimeter parking lots so that core
area visitors need not walk more than x minutes to reach
their destinations: locate all civic facilities in this
area: promote a land coverage of about x percent: encourage
the renewal of the old residential portions of the core:
give top priority for new schools and parks to the core
area.

d. Comprehensive Plgn Recommendations — a new
freeway 100p around the core area: renewal of such and such
areas: construction of a new civic sports arena in such and
such location: development of new parking lots on the inner
edge of the freeway loop: allow higher density development
in suCh and such areas: close sudh and such streets for
“13.1180

.5. a. Strategic Outcome Poligy - a star-shaped
urban pattern accomodating growth along a few radial

channels extending from the central city and separated
from each other by vast wedges of Open space.

b. Strategic ggtion Policy - hold the wedge
areas out of intensive development: promote radial growth
along high speed mass transit and freeway routes,

15

decentralize employment centers to the radial channels:
promote a high rate of growth: promote the develOpment of
well-balanced radial communities.

c. Tacticpl_Poligy - push for more restrictive
rural zoning; allow tax increase immunity for wedge areas
which are beseiged by spreading urbanization: use highways
and rail transit lines to lead urbanization; tOp priority
should be given to growth in the NE sectorfl radial commun-
ity develOpment should be at a density of‘x persons per
acre and should have a pOpulation range of between y anx 2.

d. Comprehensive Plan Recommendations - Such
and such areas should be reserved as open Space wedges and
the corridors should be located in such and sudh areas: a
new freeway should be built at such and such location.4"

It is important to note that Nelson's definition of
the terms strategy and tactics differs from the usage of
the terms used in "Decision Theory“ whiCh will be brought
out further in this section. Nelson‘s usage of the terms
should be considered as adjectives describing a certain
hierarchy of importance related to policies, while the
terms used in "Decision Theory“ represent plans.

Angther approach to alternatives is provided by the
"growth model“ or "simulation? techniques that have been
very useful in traffic and tranSportation studies, and
have recently been introduced to the planning process. A
"model“ can be any kind of conceptual framework for
accomplishing an objective. In this case, a “model” is the

expression in numbers of the complicated relationships

between all the variables that exist and act on the

4Ibid., pp. 80~83.

l6
develoPment of the region. An example of this process is
the attempt at “modeling“ land use "growth” by the Penn~
Jersey study. The study has assumed five alternative
patterns for distributing the land uses in the region.
Another model has been developed since the original
"Regional Growth Model". The present "Simplified Distribu-
tion Model” will distribute the various land use activities,
e.g. industry, household and so on, among the Penn-Jersey
districts. The model has been developed for projecting
the distribution of population, socio-economic character-
istics, and transition over a period of time.

The new tedhniques can be adapted to urban planning
procedures and will in the future provide accurate pro-
jections of the impact of various alternative policies on
the region and thus provide an accurate tool for decision
making. ‘The drawback in this approach is that the techniques
haye not been sophisticated enough to date to provide
prediction of intangible cultural factors.

In order to use any of the techniques discussed in
this subsection, whether “alternative forms“, “alternative
policies“, or “models” for the region, the planner has to
have a thorough understanding of his area, its problems,
and its goals. The goals have to go beyond the community
goals that planners have been prOposing as the bases of
their plans. The goals must reflect the individual and
group objectives as well as those of the community. This

understanding and its subsequent clarification of the

l7
objectives and their translation into workable plans can

be accomplished through the use of the systems approach.
The Systems Appppach

The systems approach is a comparatively new in-
novation in the planning profession. It has, however, been
used by some powerful intellectual prOponents in both
academic and professional circles, such as Britton Hams,
Russell Achaff, Stewart Marquis, Robert Mitchell, and John
Gifford. These men, among others, have adapted the general
systems theory and the systems engineering theory into an
approach to further the understanding of the urban
community as a system. This subsection will draw heavily
on some of the works of Stewart Marquis5 in order to explain
the systems approach and its usefulness in this prOposed
framework.

The basic task of this paper is to look at the
~£Eg$93.a3 an entity or a whole and search for the best
method of guiding future development. This is another
facet of the same problem of looking at the patterns of
develogment in order to find the ideal pattern for the
region.

Thersystems approach is therefore an ideal framework
to carry out the above objective. The systems approach is

5Professor Stewart Marquis is Assoc. Prof. of Urban
Planning at Michigan State University. The writer has drawn
heavily on notes from classes as well as personal conversa—
tions and unpublished papers (by Professor Marquis) in writing
this section.

18

based on the concept of looking at the parts (components),
grouping of parts (sub—systems) and the interactions be-
tween the parts and groupings, or the components and sub-
systems in order to comprehend how the whole (system)
works and thus be able to design a new system or improve
on existing one.

The last point leads to the discussion of optimiza-
tion. Optimization of a system can be achieved through
the application of the system to its environment in order
to receive the best performance from the system. Optimiza-
tion, however, can not be adhieved for all aSpects of the
design equally. The designer has to choose a goal toward
which he will gauge his system to perform at its optimum
capacity.

Systems techniques have been used by men in other
conceptual fields and disciplines for looking at their
own concepts in terms of interacting or interrelated elements,
with meaningful relationshipsletween the attributes or
pr0perties of those elements. Examples of these disciplines
include: biologists, natural ecologists, engineers,
sociologists, geographers, psychologists, and researchers
in business and industry. This approach can, therefore,
be utilized to bridge the gap of knowledge and increase the
interaction of ideas between these conceptual fields.

So far we have dealt with theoretical systems and
defined the various kinds of possible systems in existence.

We'have not, however, applied the systems approach directly

19

to the community and the region. An attempt in this
direction was made by Stewart Marquis in various publica-
tions which have been synthesized for this section.
Marquis' system model incorporates subsystems made up of
human, manmade, and natural components as ”man-artifact-
natural resource" subsystems. Further, the components and
subsystems interact through flows of people, vehicles,
goods, energy, and messages. Finally, control over the
system can be internal or external depending on the
location of the people exerting that control. The system
boundaries start where you have a positive control over
the operations and functions of the subsystems and end
where this control is lost.

In regards to location or Spatial information
systems, Marquis suggests that urban communities tend to
build up from smaller Specialized subsystems within the
urban Complex into larger agglomerates in a hierardhical
fashion. The hierarchies of subsystems interact with
increasing complexity as we progress from the individual
subsystem to a group of more complex subsystems. In order
to analyze this complex system on a regional level we can
separate and analyze its sets of subsystems. In other
words, subsystems such as industry, commerce, households
will be grouped into sets of industrial subsystems,
commercial subsystem, and so on. The interactions between
the subsystem will take place through ”sequential flow and

decision processes“ or transactions. These transactions

20
will involve the flows of people, organisms, substances,
antifacts, money, messages, signals and energy.

The subsystems mentioned above can be classified in
order of their importance to the overall system. Those
which function to satisfy survival needs such as water,
food, shelter, protection from death or injury or disease
are critical subsystems. The subsystems dealing with key
resources such as people, land, Space, water, and air are
key subsystems. Subsystems which generate or accomodate
various flows such as railroads, and highways, are ma or
sgbsystems. This classification will help in relating the
subsystems in accordance with the important role they play
in the overall regional systems framework.

In summary, this systems approach provides the
planner with an ideal analytical framework. Its major con-
tributions are in turn summarized in the words ”Design“,
“Performance“ and “Control". The planner can combine the
various components and subsystems in such a way that he can
loptimigeythemgbjectives he has set out to achieve. The way
in which the system works is itSperformance. This perform—
ance can be measured relative to the system objective to
determine whether the subsystems are functioning at a
desirable efficiency. Finally, control is the implementa-
tion of desired ends through the wise selection of the
means.

The methodology applicable to any community should

a.» .

 

proceed as follows:

21

l. Analyze the components Of the community in
question.

2. State and describe the major controlled sub—
systems.

3. State and describe the major uncontrolled
subsystems.

4. Show the interaction between the subsystems
wherever possible.

5. State the limit or boundaries Of the system
and hOW'haS it been derived.

This process is further illustrated in Diagram_2.
The Goal Formulgtion Process

Since one Of the advantages of the systems approach
is the Optimization Of the various subsystems in order to
have a viable overall system, this Optimization has to be
based on specific goals and Objectives to be met by the sub-
system.

The planning process has always utilized goals and
objectives, however, these were not always specifically
stated in the plans and generally stayed in the planner's
head. Recently, with the acceptance of the policy approach,
the goals and Objectives to be achieved by the community
have become featured sections Of the overall plan. Out-
standing examples Of this approach include the Philadelphia
glgp, the Washington, D.C. Year 2000 Plan, and the South-

western Pennsylvania Region State Of the Region 1964 publication.

22
The methodology that has been followed in these
effOrts usually proceeded as follows:

Goals Objectives Principles Standards Specific
PrOposals

This methodology was altered slightly with the acceptance Of
the "values" concept as it was proposed by the Twin Cities
Joint Program, in which the values (defined as "irreducible
absolutes Of quality“) were classified as follows:
1. Survival Values: Security, Sustenance, Continuity
2. DeveIOpment Values: COOperation, Extension, Surplus
3. Fulfillment Values: Beauty, Goodnegs, Truth,
Immortality, Recreation, Happiness
This approach further proposed the utilization of these values
as a basis for formulating goals, which in turn can be con-
verted into policies for the region. The proposal there-
fon changed the methodology presented earlier to the
following:
Values Goals Policies Implementing Devices
The above methodology with minor variations is
currently the favored procedure in the planning field. It
does, however, have some glaring drawbacks, among them are
the following:
1. The procedure while trying to keep therianning

process from being “esoteric and arbitrary" is itself

esoteric and arbitrary.

 

6Twin Cities MetrOpolitan Planning Commission,

Valges and the Planning Progess, St. Paul, Minnesota.

23

2. The planners and the people will have difficulty
distinguishing between values and goals.

3. The problem Of avoiding personal bias by the
planner will not be solved by the value system since it too,
might lead to certain bias.

For the above reasons as well as the conviction
that a better goal formulation procedure can be achieved
through the utilization Of the "Needs" framework leads to
the suggestion Of new considerations.

Prior to launching into the exploration Of the
prOposed framework a definition Of critical terms is in
order.

1. Goals: These are statements Of higher aims
or ends which reflect the problems
and issues and towards whiCh certain
criteria will have to be implemented
to achieve a desirable outcome.

Goals usually reflect the needs,
wants, desires Of the persons con-
‘ trolling the system.

2. Objectives: The next step is the develOpment
Of criteria leading toward decision.
Objectives are usually positive or
desirable manifestations Of goals in
contrast to restraints.

3. Restraints: Complementing Objectives in pur-

pose, yet exerting its power as a

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25
control Of the system. Restraints
are manifestations Of outcomes which
are not desired or definitely to be
avoided.

The approach suggested here is based on a need
framework to provide the goals for the community. The
general need framework is in turn further classified by
proposing a hierarchy of human needs, wants, and desires!
The “needs“ imply basic survival requirements composed Of
things, conditions, and feelings that are the minimum
biological requirements for the human body to develop and
to survive. The "wants" reflect additional requirements
that are essential for human welfare in a given culture
but not necessary for survival. The "wants“ progress beyond
the survival state and start reflecting cultural requirements
and group traits. Finally, the "desires“ are personal
requirements that are not essential for either survival or
comfort. Desires, however, can be important motivators and
increase in importance with increases in the standards Of
living. It is readily discernible from the above breakdown
that the needs framework is a continuum of needs, wants,
and desires. The continuum in turn reflects sociO-cultural
standings that vary with individuals, groups, organizations,

and cultures in given areas (continents, countries, states).

 

*This “needs framework" also draws on ideas and notes Of
Professor Stewart Marquis.

26
If we compare the continuum as it is reflected in the United
States with that of a representative of the so-called
underdevelOped nations we can readily perceive that their
“desires" might be out “wants“o

If we take ”food" as the requirements to be met,
in this case the biological requirement, then “need“ can be
met with a determined amount of calories for survival.

This can be in the form of wheat (bread), rice, or fruits,
depending on the continental location. Wants, on the
other hand, are reflected by the requirement of a ”balanced
meal” whidh the nutritionist claims to consist of a certain
amount of protein, carbohydrates, and legumes, in this case
meat, potatoes and bread, and vegetables or fruits.
Finally, the “desires“ are reflected in the requirement of
an addition which might not at all be connected with the
meal itself such as a cocktail or even coffee.

“Values" are related to this concept in the form of
preferences. In other words, values are dimensions by which
a preference ordering is instituted. In this context we can
use values without classifying them as biological, psycho-
logical, social or economic° Through this device we can
eliminate the static, abstract ideals from the connotation
of values.

There are two aspects or facets of this need frame-
work, the positive and negative aspectso Needs, wants and
desires can be positive sudh as the need for food, water,

shelter, health and love and their accompanying degrees of

27
sophistication with progression along the continuum
mentioned above. The needs framework can also be negative
such as the need not to get hurt, succumb to disease or
have emotional frustrations.

Goals are means of providing and maintaining the
systems required for the satisfaction of the needs framework
as it was discussed above. Since the needs framework was
positive and negative and goals are based on fulfilling
these needs, then goals are both positive and negative.

The positive goals will be referred to as achievement goals
since their main purpose is the achievement of a positive
thing, condition or feeling. The negative goals are
referred to as avoidance goals that can produce positive
results by identifying them as undesirable and then simply
by avoiding them in the planning process.

Thegaals in turn are translated into objectives
Which can be utilized in the planning process. The objec-
tives can also be positive and negative. These have already
been defined earlier as objectives and restraints. The
objectives are implemented through the use of Specific
criteria designed to produce an outcome or a plan. This
process is illustrated in figure 3.

This framework is related to the systems approach in
the following manner. First, the significant interaction
processes, which constitute the linkages between the sub-
systems and components of the community, are those whiCh

serve to directly satisfy the goals as they reflect the needs,

28
wants, and desires of the people within the community
system. Secondly, the objectives discussed can be trans-
lated into processes which also serve the requirements of
components and subsystems and thus enable them to flourish
and continue serving the human goals. Thirdly, once the
components, subsystems and processes have been established
to satisfy the goals, some of their functions can be
optimized to improve their performance even further thus
increasing the satisfaction of needs, wants and desires of
the peOple.

This approach also serves the decision process,
and thus the alternative spatial policies which are our
primary concern, through the design of alternative sets of
outcamel based on alternative sets of objectives. These
outcomes can be combined to optimize and to select the best
possible system.

Finally, this approaCh is a useful device in plan
evaluation. As will be brought out in the section follow5
ing, alternative outcomes are based on alternative sets of
strategies and alternative policies. The evaluation of
these strategies has so far either been overlooked or
carried out in an unsatisfactory manner (this is discussed
further in chapter 4).

The evaluation process does not have to be applied
to the total plan but can be applied to the parts of the
plan as it is being formulated. This can be accomplished

by testing the degree which the goals (perfonmance criteria)

 

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30
have been met or will be met in the system or subsystem as

it has been designed (course of action to be taken).

Decision Theory

The theory of decision making has until recently
been confined to such conceptual fields as philosophy and
economics. Various professions realized some of its
valuable contributions and have adapted it to their field.
The outstanding example of such a profession is business
management, which has develOped its own theories and
models and has utilized all the available techniques in the
pursuit of maximizing business objectives.

The planning process can greatly benefit by
evaluating both the zeal of business management for new
theories and applications, and from the adaptation of the
decision-making techniques already develOped. These appli-
cations can help the urban planning process achieve the
following goals.

1. Better understanding of the urban planning

process itself and what it can achieve.

2. Better techniques for choice among various

alternative plans of action.

3. Better communication of possibilities between

the planner and the decision maker.

4. A higher acceptance of proposals through the

involvement of the decision maker.

31
The methods of decision making are not all theoretical,
complex processes. They vary in complexity with the vari-
ables that have to be considered in making the decision.
The simplest and most basic type of decision involves man
himself and the decisions he has to make for biological
survival. These decisions are made by instinct in response
to a biological need. When the goals become more complex,
man has to resort to deliberate choice among alternative
possibilities for solution.

Another method involving human response, except at a
higher level, is the method of trial and error. In this
case man has to depend on his learning abilities and his
memory in making a decision. If he fails in his attempt to
solve the problem at hand he reacts in two ways: first, he
reflects on possible causes of his failure and thus possible
future actions, and second, he stores the information in his
(memory for referral purposes if the same situation Should
come up in the future. This process cannot be used in its
simple form (as it has been described above) at the organiza -
tion level since it would consume time to acquire the knowledge
to make accurate decisions. Another drawback is that the
price of “failure“ is too great. On the other hand, the
introduction of the high speed computers has Opened new
possibilities for this method. The computer can assimilate
vast quantities of information and store them in its
"memory“ and thus be in the position to weigh various

situations prior to their happening. This method has already

32

been a useful tool in planning and is commonly referred to
as "simulation techniques".

The next logical method after the above is the
“appeal to authority“ method of making decisions. This
method, the authority in this case, can take four various
aspects, they are: arbitrary power, interaction, precepts
of some ethical systems, and a number of mathematical
criteria. The first of the four alternative "authorities“
takes the form of an arbitrary direction backed up by
superior persuasiveness, guile, or sheer economic, political,
or physical force. This is usually reflected in the
policies and laws of governmental systems. Intuition can
take the form of any Spontaneous generation of an idea
which serve as a means to an end. This alternative is not
as impulsive as it may at first appear since the originator
usually goes through a mental process that is scientific
in its reasoning even when it is based on emotional appeal,
since this in turn has been based on learned cultural
precepts. The third authority, that of ethics, was one way
to avoid reliance on intuition. Ethical systems reflect
deep philosophy of behavior that can guide both the actions
and the attitudes of the men doing the acting. This method
can be translated into the planning process by the reliance
and use Of goals reflecting the democratic ideology. The
last of the four.alternatives is mathematical criteria.
These criteria include a variety of methods that would

minimize risk and Optimize Opportunity. A thorough

N,‘

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33
discussion of these criteria is impossible due to the
limitations of the subject.7 A model discussing some of
the relevant criteria applicable to city planning will, howa
ever, be introduced in the coming section.

In summary, decision making is a class of methods
that can be utilized to choose a strategy from a set of
alternatives. It is usually Objective in nature and is dis-
tinguished by the fact that it is relatively free from human
judgment intervention. The last statement is not always
applicable in urban planning since the planner cannot con-
trol all the components and interactions within the system
which concerns him. The planner, however, can determine
the decision criteria that can be used to Choose a strategy
or a plan which will be used from a set of alternative plans
for the controllable components. The alternative plans will
consist of alternative allocations of components and sub-
systems to be used in the design of the region as a system.

we must not lose sight of the fact that the ultimate
decision will be made at a higher level<f "human judgmental
intervention“. This can be an individual decision maker -
the mayor, a group - the city or regional counc1l, the

citizenry in general, and/or a combination of all the above.

 

7For a discussion of “Statistical Decision Making and
Games" refer to A. D. Hall, A Maggodoloqy_for System
Engineering, D.‘Van Nostrand Co., Princeton, New Jersey,
1962, pp. 296-320.

34
The role of the planner is to use the techniques as tools
to classify his own thoughts and as a means of providing the
final decision maker with a choice of alternatives and their

accompanying implications.
Considerations of a New'Methodoloqy

Up to this point we have simply tried to prepare a
framework for the proposal of a conceptual model for
decision making. This model will hOpefully illuminate and
clarify our knowledge of planning decision, planning alter-
natives, planning outcomes, and the use of goal formulation
in the planning process. In short the most efficient way to

generate and evaluate alternative spatial patterns for the

region. &

r‘~“_‘ ..z—

The decision framework is composed of five basic
elements.
They are:

“1. Strategies or plans constructed of controllable
variables.

2. States of nature composed of noncontrollable
variables.

3. Outcomes which are observations of results that
occur when a specific strategy is employed and a
particular state of nature exists.

4. Predictions of the likelihood that each state
of nature will occur.

5. The decision criterion which dictates the way in
which the information above will be used to
select a single plan to follow.“8

 

8Martin Kenneth Starr. Production Management,_8ystems,
and Synthesis, Prentice-Hall, Inc., Englewood Cliffs, N.J.,
1964, p. 67.

35
Strategies:

Strategies are usually long term plans that project
the most plausible solutions to the problems at hand. They
take into consideration all the resources which they can
control in achieving the solutions of that problem. An-
other term that is closely allied to strategy is tactic.
This term connotes a method or a concrete procedure that can
be used to carry out a strategy. In other words, it is the
tool for converting a general plan into a Specific course
of action. Tactics use the basic componentsof the system
in carrying out their purpose. In the case of the urban
system the components can consist of men, artifacts, and
natural organisms and substances. These components can be
manipulated to produce various alternative arrangements.
Such design strategies might include such theoretical
patterns as ”concentration", “decentralization” and *
“linear“ patterns. A summary of this subsection follows:

1. Strategies are long term plans reflecting

possible outcomes using controllable variables
now available or that will be available at some
future date.

2. Tactics are short term plans reflecting

actions that can be taken within the
strategies framework.

3. It is possible to have a number of tactics

for each strategy. The best design will

usually consist of the best groupings of

36
tactical possibilities.

4. A choice of tactics will have to precede
the choice between alternative strategies,
since a method for grouping or arranging
the components is a prerequisite to the
various systems designs.

5. In a mechanical insensitive system the
strategies can be chosen first and then
the means of carrying them out spelled out
in detail. However, the urban system is a
sensitive system, whereby the performance
of tactics are interrelated and affect the
outcome of various strategies. It is,
therefore, imperative that the tactics be
Specified at the same time that the
strategies are prOposed. This concept is

illustrated in figure 4.

States of Ngturex

The next step of decision is the "state of nature"
function. States of nature describes those factors that
affect the result of a plan and yet are beyond the control of
the planner. Such factors include; climate, political
situations, economic changes, and so on. These factors
can hinder the planning process. On the other hand, the
planning process might be able to adapt to these conditions

and work with or despite them. When the process can assume

37
a given state of nature the decision problem is called
"decision under certainty". This example frequently occurs
for short term planning Situations. For long term planning
situations, however, the alternative states of nature must
be recognized and taken into consideration. This might
require deep involvement in such perceptual fields as
sociology, psychology, anthropology, political science, and
economics. Until recently the planning process has grudging-
ly accepted the existence of these limiting factors but has
Chosen to avoid the issue by listing them as “assumptions“

that will not hinder the process.

Ogtgomes:

Outcomes are the products of strategies and
Specific states of nature. Such outcomes might include
the following examples: a given drainage system design (81)
Operating under a given state of nature (N1) which in this
case is “pouring rain” will flood (011), under drought
conditions (N2) it will dry up completely (012), and so on.

This can be illustrated as follows:

 

NJ NL N3 N4 N5
81 O11 012 013 014 015
82 021 O22 023 O24. 025
83 031 032 033 034 035
S4 041 042 043 044 045

The table presents a decision matrix where four

designs (strategies) interact with five different environmental

58

FIGURE 4A

Tactical Evaluation of an Insensitive System

81 52 I

 

 

 

 

 

    

I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I

   

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I
I
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Til

T9

Estimate 1 Estimate 2 Estimate 5
Evaluation Criteria

FIGURE 4B

Tactical Evaluation of a Sensitive System

 

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Estimate 1 Estimate 2 Estimate 3 57

f .

Evaluation Criteria

39

conditions (states of nature) resulting in a whole series of
expected or projected outcomes. These outcomes can be
stated in numerical terms such as the number Of hours that a
drainage system can work efficiently under flooding conditions,
or it might be the cost in dollars in constructing a
facility, and so on. These criteria can then be evaluated
to select the outcome which would satisfy a given Objective.
Relating this to the needs framework, the goal might be
“safety“ in which case the outcome reducing or eliminating
flooding will be the desirable one.

Outcomes are obtained in at least three different
ways:

1. By means of estimates and guesses

2. By observation and experimental results

3. By a knowledge of relationships that have

previously been hypothesized (a theory).9

Planners have already utilized all three methods and combina-
tion Of these methods. They have, however, seldom related
these outcomes deliberately to the decision process. The
third alternative has only recently been utilized by pioneer-
ing efforts in systems analysis, simulation, and other
Operations research techniques.

The whole process described above can be represented
in mathematical form and thus as a mathematical "state”

model. This can be achieved only under the following con-

ditions. The strategies can be represented in numerical

91hiQ.. Pa 80.

40

form only if the controllable variables lend themselves

to such representation. The noncontrollable variables
which make up the states of nature can also be represented
by mathematical terms. The outcomes in this mathematical
framework will be called dependent variables in contrast
to the controllable and uncontrollable variables which are
also called independent variables. Since the dependent
variable is a function of the independent variables it can

be represented by the following equation -

Oij = f (81, Nj)
where: O = the outcome
f = function
S = strategy
N = state of nature
i+j = subscripts of certain strategies and

states of nature

This function in turn might have the following hypothetical

relationship:
3 3
01 = S - SiN + N
J 1 J J
whereIOij = outcome (in i and j)
SE = strategy to the third power
SiNj = the product of strategy (1) times state

of nature (j)
N? = state of nature (j) to the third power

(i+j)= subscripts denoting strategies and states
of nature.

In ViOW’Of the above relationship we can readily perceive
the need for numerical representation of the independent
variables. This in turn will limit the applicability of
this model to processes that can be expressed in numerical

representations. The problem of evaluating alternative

41

Spatial patterns for the urban region might be applicable
to this model only if we remain in the physical Spatial
spheres and distributions. The social processes and
interactions might be included with the further SOphistica-
tion of these techniques at some future date. This might
not be too far in the future, since we can presently
accurately estimate these variables through the reliance
on the first two alternate methods of determining outceme
and the utilization of the electronic computers to sift
through the large amounts of data which is essential in
this case.

A statement made above regarding the usefulness
of the model whenever the variables are not quantifiable
might erroneously give the impression that the model is
therefore Of limited usefulness. It is therefore
imperative to point out that the model can help clarify
the decision process regardless of its ability to generate
a quantitative product (the outcomes). Just the mere con-
cept that the variables can be separated into controllable
and uncontrollable variables can be a useful concept of

looking at the problems at hand.

nggigtion: The process utilized in converting the un-
controllable variables into a usable framework is called
prediction. This process compensates in knowledge what we
lack in direct control. We can predict such phenomena as

sunrise, sunsets, high and low tides, forecast weather, and

42
so on. Since we know through experience what to expect
from nature, we can choose an appropriate strategy and
thus indirectly gain control over outcomes. In a similar
manner to prediction of physical phenomena we can anticipate
group behaviors from previous observations - this type of
prediction improves as we move from the specific to the
general, in this case, from the individual to large groups.
This ability is, however, lessened by the existence of
complex interaction processes between individual social and

cultural systems.

The Matrix:

Whenever the outcomes vary across the matrix in
incremental stages and the strategy remains constant al-
though the “states of nature“ change, the matrix is a
“single state" matrix and can be represented with just one
set of ahernative outcomes. If, on the other hand the out-
comes vary under both the uncontrollable variables and
controllable variables, then the outcome matrix (single
state) becomes a decision matrix. The problem in devising
the full decision matrix is the reliability of the observed
data that is ascribed to the “states of nature" variables.
When considering the reliability of the variables we Should
ask the following questions:

1. How'many states of nature are relevant?

2. Are we able to identify all the relevant

states Of nature?

3. Can we determine the “true“ frequencies

43
of occurrence of these states of nature?
4. Are these frequencies fixed, that is, is

the state of nature (causal) system stable?lo

Decision Criteria: The final aSpect to be covered under the
decision framework suggested is that of criteria. The first
type of criterion is that of (DMUC) “Decision Making Under
Certainty“. This method can be applicable only when there
exists a single state (as has been described in the previous
subsection). Therefore under a simple decision matrix where
complications are negligible and the strategies are few,
then DMUC would be a feasible criterion.

The second type of criterion is that of (DMUR)
”Decision Making Under Risk". This exists when two or more
states of nature are relevant, when all the relevant states
of nature can be identified, and when a high degree of
believability can be relied upon in reSpect to probability
of occurrence of the states of nature. If all the prObabil-
ities of the states of nature are low except for one, then
the DMUR can be elevated into DMUC. It is important to note
that long-term predictions are dubious under DMUR and thus
its highest contribution is in the short term problem
Solutions.

The third major class of decision criteria covers
cases that can not be covered by either DMUC or DMUR, The
method is DMUU “Decision Making Under Uncertainty". This
method is useful in enumerating a finite set of states of

nature. These, however, can not be evaluated in terms of

 

loIbid., p. 93.

44
likelihood of occurrence or probabilities. There are ways
of dealing with such ”uncertainty” through complex decision

criteria.

Suggested Application to the Urban Planning Process:

The previous discussion has presented a framework of
decision making, and defined the workings of all its parts.
It is suggested that the urban planning process can utilize
this model and adapt it to all types of decision-making
prbblems like the following:

1. Alternative Strategies: Various "community“ spatial
form arrangenents I
Alternative States of Nature: Varying demand levels
for housing types.
Outcomes: Measure acceptance
Objective: Maximum choice

2. Alternative Strategies: Different traffic system
"designs"
Alternative States of Nature: varying traffic loads on
highways
Outcome: Measure average and peak loads
Objective: a better systems design

3. Alternative Strategies: Different types of urban system
(towns) designs.
Alternative States of Nature: Varying occupational
requirements

Outcome: Measure demand for new communities

45
Objective: Maximum variety of environment

4. Alternative Strategy: Scheduled develOpment growth
programs
Alternative States of Nature: economic fluctuation of
housing I
Outcome: Measure rate of expansion
Objective: A controlled rate of orderly growth.

5. Alternative Strategies: An industrial location layout
Alternative States of Nature: Industrial competition
of other regions
Outcome: Measure desirability of Sites
Objective: Efficient distribution of industries.

6. Alternative Strategies: a program of water management

Alternative Statestof Nature: (1) Variability of rainfall

and,

(2) urban develOpment affect-

ing rainoff.
Outcome: Measure (1) average and peak accumulations
(2) rate of run off per urbanization
increment.
Objective: An adequate supply of ground water and

eliminationcf flood conditions.

Summary:

The planning process has always relied on decisions
in one way or another, the planner has not, however, stated
how he arrived at the various decisions. This fact did not
matter at the time when the plan was merely a guide for
develOpment through Specific recommendations. The planning

process has develOped to the point where the planner is part

46
of the public management team and is expected to contribute
his knowledge and skill toward making rational decisions
affecting the future development of the community.

It is in this context that the terms “choice“,
"alternatives", and “decisions" have entered the general
planning terminology and have played a major role in
develOping new planning theories as well as adapting exist-
ing theories, heretofore used by other disciplines such as
business management.

Considering this Shift in orientation, this chapter
has discussed various methodologies and concepts applicable
in the decision-making process, and has suggested a new
approach which can be used for the following purposes:

(1) It will clarify the factors (variables) required

to make a rational decision.

(2) It can present the alternative possible

choices (strategies) for evaluation.

(3) It can help evaluate the strategies in terms

of the results (outcomes) produced.
This framework will be further developed in subsequent chapters
by linking it to regional problems and goals, to past and
present alternative pattern usage, and finally to the
evaluation of these patterns through the application of the
framework and supplementing it with further analytical tech-

niques.

47

FIGURE 5

A Decision Making Model for Urban Planning

 

(l)

 

The Goal Formulation Framework

 

K}

 

(2)

 

Objectives - Restraints

 

C

 

(5)

 

Objective and Restraint Functions

 

JVL

 

 

—<4>——|

Specific Criteria

 

(5)

 

Alternatives

States of Nature

 

N1

N2 N3 ——————————————————— N.

J

 

 

SI
52

 

OUTCOMES (SiNj)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CHAPTER II
FOCUS ON GOALS, PROBLEMS, ISSUES, AND POLICIES

A problem is precipitated when the goals of the
individual, group, and community are not satisfied. Con-
versely solving a problem is tantamount to achieving a goal.
This statement serves two purposes, it defines the term
”problem” and links it directly to goals and the goal
formulation process as it was discussed in the first
chapter.

Problems are also composed of issues which for the
sake of clarification are defined as public matters that
require a solution through decisions arrived at on an
administrative level. These issues can be the whole problem
or only part Of it, for example, water pollution is a prob-
lem while control of industrial sewage effluent and the
question of constructing better water purification facilities
are issues.

If we were to correlate the problems and issues
with the goal formulation framework discussed in chapter
one, we will find that there is a direct relationship be-
tween goals and problems, and objectives and issues. This

concept is illustrated in figure 6.

48

49

In order to arrive at a set of policies the
decision maker has to search for the problems of the region,
translate these problems into goals - to carry out the
solution of the problems, then into particular objectives
reflecting the issues, and finally into a set of alternative
policies requiring adequate evaluation in order to make the
best possible choice of the alternative type of develOpment
to be effectuated in the region. This process will utilize
all the steps presented in the decision—making approach
discussed in chapter one.

It must be kept in mind, however, that while this
approach advocates the use of the individual's needs, wants,
and desires as a basis of an eventual choice of a particular-
ly applicable decision, the decision maker Should also weight
the goals Of the total system. Since the goals of all the
individuals can't possibly be met, a preference system has
to be establiShed. This preference system can utilize the
very same decision matrix presented in chapter one, with one
variation. Instead of evaluating the strategies by their
expected outcomes, we choose the preferred strategies by a
combination Of preferred outcomes. The preferred outcomes
can be gathered by a census, a poll or a survey of the
peOple within the community.

We must also take into consideration the feasibility
of achieving the goals. To take the example of the problem
of water pollution again, it might be a desirable goal to
eliminate the problem entirely. This goal would require a

series of decisions regarding methods which would involve

50
such objectives as the construction of additional sewage
treatment facilities. If the facilities presently available
are satisfactory but do not produce a “hundred percent"
purification of effluent, and in order to do so, it would
require doubling the facilities already present at a
tremendous rise in cost, than the objective has to be
weighed against other goals in the community requiring
consideration.

This type of logic leads still further. Except for
the most affluent region, it is impossible to optimize all
the goals and objectives of a community simultaneously.
Since our “modern“ society is a complex system with inter—
acting goals, to Optimize one goal means many other goals
are sacrificed. It is therefore of dubious logic to try
to “Optimize“ any goals. (It might be much more fruitful
(to quote Simonl) to "satisfice“ the goals. In other words,
to work toward the satisfactory solution of the problem
rather than attempting to maximize the goal (which
reflected the need for a solution in the first place).

To summarize this subsection: we find that goals
are reflections of problems which in turn are reflections
of the “needs” of people. In order to achieve these goals

the decision maker has to make a series Of decisions which

 

1Herbert Simon. Mgdels of Man, John Wiley & Sons,
New York 1957, p. 205.

 

51

FIGURE 6

Correlation of Goals and Problems

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MAN ——————————— —l
I
L
The “Needs" Framework The Institutional Framework
(Subsystems)
Needs - Wants - Desires Groups - Society
Goals <F—9 Problems
Objectives ~<-€> Issues ]é—
Tactics <Ffi> Policies
Strategies <—+> Plans

 

 

52
will affect the total system of events, and thus has to try
to find the best possible decision to achieve the Objectives
and the goals of the community.

Since this framework starts with the recognition
and the analysis of the problems and issues, the subsequent
Sections of this chapter will present some of the most press-
ing regional problems and some of the policies that have al-
ready been promulgated toward their solution. It must be
pointed out, however, that no attempt was made to separate
the issues from the problem and thus they will be treated
together. This procedure is quite satisfactory at this
point since the objective of this section is not to prOpose
solutions but rather stimulate an awareness Of the problems
at this point. Further in the paper alternative patterns

(solutions) will be discussed in detail.

A Synopsis of Rggional Problems, Issues and Trends

The following problems, issues and trends do not cover
the entire scope of regional problems that necessitate study,
analysis, and solution, It is, however, hOped that the
problems discussed can be used as a first step towards a
further search for further problems that might not have been
mentioned in this subsection or might be an outgrowth of

the problems stated below.

The Risg in Popglation:
A sharp decrease in mortality, especially in infant

mortality, and an increase in the fertility level combined to

53

produce a sharply increasing pOpulation rate. The 1960
census gave the U.S. population figure almost 180 million
at which is an increase of 18.5% over the figures given for
the 1950 census, and 58% over the 1900 pOpulation. At the
present rate the U.S. pOpulation would double to 360 million
by the year 2000.

In addition to the increase in net population,
there has been a marked increase in the number of households
and an accompanying decrease in the Size (number of persons)
of such households. This trend is very meaningful since it
portends the need of more and more Space per individual

household.

The Shift to the City:
The U.S. has evolved from a country which is pre-

dominantly rural to a country which is predominantly urban
within the twentieth century. In 1900, 30 out of the 76
million people (approx. 40%) lived in urban places while in
1960, 120 million out of the 179.5 million peoPle (67%)
lived in urban areas. At the present rate 85 percent of the
nation's inhabitants will live in urban areas by the year
2000.

It is also significant that out of the 54 million
rural residents only one third of them live on farms and get
part of their livelihood from agriculture. Furthermore, one
third of the population that live on farms are not primarily
engaged in agriculture and are economically dependent on

non agricultural urban jobs. In summary all the above

54
statistics only confirm the fact that our pOpulation is

socially and economically dependent on the central city.

The Ggoyth of the City:

In contrast and in opposition to the shift to the
city, the city itself is growing outward into the countryside
and forming something that is semi city, semi country; semi
paradise, semi slum which has been referred to by such
titles as “Urban Sprawl", "Scatteration“, "Suburbia“,
"subutOpia“, “Exurbia“ and “Slurb”. Today the central
cities suffer from the loss of pOpulation and of economic
vigor as can be easily discernible by the amount of vacancies
and the poorly-kept homes and businesses close to the “down-
town areas“. The suburbs in turn suffer from the lack of
ability to keep up with their new “blessings“ and are ill
equipped to render such vital services as adequate schools,
roads, and utilities not to mention social and cultural
facilities. The qualities can usually be discerned by the
tumble of supermarkets, used car lots, drive-in restaurants,
drive-in movies, and above all housing tracts and empty
fields.

It is significant that all the major old establiShed
cities Show a higher percentage of pOpulation loss since they
have already saturated their incorporated boundary limits,
while the newer cities that do Show increases within the
central city have either extended their corporate limits,

or have not been fully developed.

55
The Motor Vehicle:

In examining the many factors affecting the urban
pattern we find that the motor vehicle has had the highest
impact in precipitating change. With the introduction of
the automobile, man was free to move at will, rapidly, and
comfortably. These advantages however, have their correSpond—
ing disadvantages, (l) requirement of adequate roads
necessitating large outlays of funds, resources and Space,
(2) storage problems both at the origin and terminus of the
trip, also resources, especially Space. (3) Congestion,
this problem is related to the storage problem eSpecially
when it is coupled with sheer magnitude or quantity of cars,
(4) safety. The accident rate within cities has consistently
risen each year in spite of all the safety devices introduced
and the improvement of the road networks. The major problem
here again is lack of room and.the unreliability of the
human senses.

The car has become an indiSpensable tool of trans-
portation and is ranked along with food, clothing, and
shelter as a “need" in our culture. Except for two periods
in our history - the depression and WOrld war II a graph
curve of motor vehicle registration will show a steady and
steep incline. The 1960 motor vehicle registration count
amounted to 74 million vehicles - 61.6 million passenger
cars and 12.3 million commercial vehicles. Three out of
four U.S.families own at least one car (seven million

families own more than one).

56

Since the motor vehicles have become such an en-
trenched institution in our everyday life it undoubtedly has
affected many of our other traditional habits, behavior
patterns, and even our economy. The most important of
these effects as they have been felt by the develOping
region and the ensuing patterns will be discussed briefly
in this section.

1. There is a direct relationship between car
ownerShip and the socioeconomic level of the peOple. There
is also a correSponding relationship brought out by the
doctoral dissertation of Dr. Leo Schnore2 showing that the

growth differential between the metrOpolitan rings and the
central cities is clearly related to two sets of factors:
(1) The size of the central city - the larger the central
city and the greater its pOpulation density the earlier its
ring growth (suburban growth) exceeds the growth of the
central city and the higher the ratio of the "ring“ pOpula-
tion to that of central pOpulation. (2) The ratios of ring
growth to that of the central city vary directly with the
level of median income or socio—economic status.

When we relate both Schnore's correlations with the
relationShip stated at the beginning of this section, it is
not surprising to arrive at the conclusion that there is a
direct ratio between car ownership and suburban population
and development .

gLeo F. Schnore. Patterns of Decentralization,
University of Michigan, 1954.

57

2. The develOpment of most large cities and their
downtown areas in the past have depended on public trans-
portation. This has changed with the progressive decrease
in the use of mass transit and the increase in the use of
the automobile for all types of trips. These trips and
their implications will be discussed in this subsection.
These include Home Based Trips, WOrk Trips, Social-
Recreational trips, ShOpping and Business trips, and School
trips. I

(a) Home-Based Trips: Between 87 to 95 percent
of all auto passenger trips originate and terminate at the
home. This means that the home is the source generator of
most of the traffic.

(b) WOrk Trips: This category accounts for one
fourth Of the home based trips. This ratio goes up to 40
percent of home based trips in cities that are commuter
oriented such as Detroit, and Washington.

(c) Social-Recreational Trips: The second most
important trip destination with an average Of 20 percent
of all house-based trips.

(d) Shopping and Business Trips: Separately they
constitute 17 and 10 percent of home based trips. If con-
sidered together, this category surpasses the previous one
in importance.

(s) School Trips: This category is variable depend—
ing on the reason and the school age pOpulation of the area.

Although least numerous of all trip categories it should be

58
considered as one of the planning problems.3

There is also a trend that can be very meaningful
in future develOpment - Future nonwork trips will be of
even greater significance than work trips and will
affect our land use distribution drastically.

The implication of all the above information that
is applicable to this chapter and the rest of this paper -
that all the generating components of travel should be
considered separately in the planning stage of a
metropolitan network pattern.

3. Changes in Land Use: The decentralization
process has already created new patterns of Land Use
distribution but has not yet jellied into a significant
form. The urban metrOpOlis and the region are in the
midst of transition. These changes have mostly been in-
fluenced by the increased mobility along with economic and
social motivations. It is for this reason that this sub-
section is included under the "Motor Vehicle“ section.
These trends will be discussed by Land Use classification
below:

(a) Residential Trend: This part has been dis-
cussed under the section titled the “shift to the city”
and the findings of Schnore's dissertation presented in the

previous subsection. A recent attitude survey conducted in

 

3Wilbur Smith and Associates. Future H wa s and
Urbag Grgwth, New'Haven, Connecticut, 1961.

59

Providence Rhode Island in 1956 showed that “there is a com-
pulsive urge among residents of the city to move to the
suburb or to the country, and there is little compensating
urge among residents of the suburbs or the country to move
to the city.“4

(b) Industrial Trends: Industry is heavily
dependent on transportation, markets, materials, and a
labor force for its location criteria. TranSportation has
made decentralization possible, however, industry still has
to remain close to the market and worker population. It is
for this reason that most new industrial expansion.has
occurred on the periphery of well established urban areas
rather than in areas with small labor supply and market
conditions. A case in point is the tremendous industrial
development that has occurred and is still mushrooming on
the perimeter freeway circumscribing the Boston Metropolitan

5 Two years after the completion of the freeway saw

Area.
the location of new industrial and commercial plants costing
~$100 million and enploying 17,000 persons: 70 Of the new
plants have moved from sites that were either in Boston
proper or within its close environment.

(c) Commercial Trends: The regional ShOpping

center has become part and parcel of the American way Of life.

 

4Prutt, Robert w. Attitde and practice of Residents
of Greater Providence Concerning Downtown Providence, 1956'.

5Bone, A.J. and Wohl, Martin. “Massachusetts Route
128 Impact Study“, Highway Research Board, Washington, D.C..
1959.

60

This phenomenon started after WOrld War II and since has be-
come an indiSpensable part Of the general decentralization
process. AS of 1961, there are approximately 100 large
regional ShOpping centers in the U.S. Each of the centers
includes 400,000 Square feet of stone building area. All of
the centers are located on sites between 40 and 100 acres,
and include a minimum of one major department store of
150,000 square feet or larger.6

This trend of dependence on the ShOpping center to
service not only the new suburban pOpulation but the central
city as well has many implications relating to future
regional growth and land use allocation.

(d) Central Business District Trends: The shift
of pOpulation and the subsequent shift of shoppers to the
regional and community Size shopping centers has adversely
affected the central business district. Between 1948 and
1954 retail sales in suburban areas increased 53 percent
while the central business district increased only one
percent, this amounted to a 25 percent drOp for the CBD.7
The trend does not seem to reverse, as a matter of fact,
there is a direct ratio between increase in the construction
of interceptor rings around downtown (which makes ideal
locations for central ShOpping centers) and decrease in

retail trade in the central business district.

 

6Hoyt, Homer. “The Status of Shopping Centers in
the U.S.“ Urban Land, Vol. 19, No. 9, Urban Land Institute,
October 1960.

7McMillan, Samuel C. “Changing Position of Retail
Trade in Central Business Districts,“ Traffic Quarterly,
July 1957.

61
Other downtown strongholds such as consumer trade,
hotels, motels, and.movie theaters have also felt the pinch

of competition from the new suburban facilities.

Summary: Figure 7 will serve as a summary of the urban
travel factors and fiheir future trends. It is noteworthy
that at the present trend the motor vehicle will have a very
decided impact on future land uses and the patterns they can

assume.

The Highway: Related to the problem of the car and its
impact on regional develOpment in the issue of the role of
the "Highway". Unlike the car, however, the highway is a
controlled component and is dependent on policy decisions
which in turn can implement or alter conditions leading to
stabilization of the urban pattern or the introduction of
new patterns of growth and development.

Historically the major highway networks of the U.S.
can be traced to the stimulus of the Federal Aid Road Act
of 1916 which stimulated joint federal and state highway
construction. Since then highway building has flourished
with increased automobile ownership and usage and accompany-
ing dependence of commerce and industry on the highway for
tranSportation. Following are some trends noteworthy in
their impact on regional development.

1. Road Mileage: Road.mileage has increased from
2,000,000 miles of roads (only six percent surfaced) in 1904

to 3,500,000 miles of road (70 percent of which are

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63
surfaced).8

2. Land Usage: The above figure of 3,500,000 miles
of highways occupy an estimated 22,000,000 acres, or an
average of six acres of land per road mile. The projected
41,000 mile system of Interstate and Defense Highways will
require an additional 1,500,000 acres three quarters of
which will be located on new rights-of-way. The new system,
however, will utilize land more efficiently since it requires
only a 5 percent increase in land usage while serving an
estimated 20 percent of all travel requirements.

3. Vehicular Travel: There is a close relationship
between highway travel and the gross national product. Except
for a decrease in travel during the second world war a graph
would Show approximately parallel courses. This trend links
travel behavior to our economy but might also be interpreted

to indicate the effect of travel on our economy.

Summary: The develOpment of tranSportation facilities has
and will always play the part of Opening new areas for
development and intensifying the present uses in already
existing agglomerations with consequent increase in land
values. This role has become more selective with the in-
ception of the “freeway” (a limited access highway). Where
the traditional highway tended to attract ribbon commercial

 

8U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Public
Roads: Highway Transpgrtation, Background Information pre-
pared for the National Academy of Sciences, National
Research Council, TranSportation Research Study, WOodS Hole,
Massachusetts, August 1960.

64
develOpment, the freeway has encouraged more intensive uses
such as industrial parks, and regional ShOpping centers near
interchanges. In addition to precipitating change the free-
way has played a dual role of stabilizing the land uses by
limiting the rate of turnover and by delimiting basic long
range patterns. It is for this last reason that this chapter
has put so much stress on the car-oriented develOpmental
issues. The planner can utilize tranSportation facilities
asa means to link, stabilize, and/or buffer his land use

arrangements depending on the objectives to be carried out.

The VaniShing Countryside: Our cities are growing at the
rate of 3000 acres per day.9 At this rate of land consumption
the Urban Land Institute estimates that by the year 2000
the expansion Of 300 metropolitan areas will consume some
55,000 square miles of additional Space surrounding these
centers. This space is preempted from surrounding farm
areas through sheer economic advantage. Even rugged topo-
graphy and swampland have not hindered this urban Spread due
to superior technical skills of the large scale developers.
In light of the above statistics, urgent action is
required if we as a nation are going to save some Open Space
not only for recreation but for breathing space and visual
relationShip to nature amid the heavily urbanized negulo-

politan develOpmentS. Recently the urban planner has been

 

9Architectual Forum. "The City's Threat to Open
Land", January 1958, p. 87.

65
concerned with programming and phasing urban growth. This
concern has emphasized the sequence of metrOpolitan growth
rather than form. The planner Should modify this philosophy
to consider the areas that cannot or Should not be developed
because of Open Space needs for recreation, conservation,
agriculture, and an efficient and aesthetic urban develOp-
ment. The last point will be develOped further in the next

chapters.

Smog and Dead Fish: Related to the previous discussion of
Open space is the issue of pollution and conservation of
natural resources. In order to do justice to these issues
we Should analyze each tOpic separately.

1. Water Pollution: Like everything else in our
lackadaisical society a problem is not considered to exist
until a catastrophe is precipitated. This is also true in
the attitude toward water conservation and pollution. Such
a catastrophe occurred at the end of the 19th century in the
form of virulent typhoid epidemics in various U.S. cities.
The outcry that ensued resulted in (1) health authorities
set aside certain streams for waste diSposal purposes
while protecting other for water supply, which in turn
resulted in protected watersheds and water reservoirs.

(2) The second method was the resort to sanitary engineering
technology in purified drinking water and processing the
used water for later purification and reuse by other

communities further down stream. These methods solved the

66
health issue and the pOpulace was satisfied into a state
of indifference. The issue of pollution, however, remains
as any fisherman would readily testify. Unprocessed
affluent from water using industries and partly processed
effluent from some sewer systems of cities, combine to ruin
numerous streams for recreation and aesthetic purposes. To
aggravate the problem, technology has introduced such sub-
stances as pesticides, detergents, and petrochemical wastes
that are highly resistant to breakdown by ordinary water
treatment methods. Some laws and controls have alleviated
the problem through lengthy court battles, the problem, howh
ever, still exists and should be of grave concern to the
planner.

2. Air Pollution: Society is starting to realize
that ”the air around us is not a limitless sea into which we
can continue to pour waste without serious consequences."10
Air is affected by the pollutants as: (l) gaseous sub-
stances such as carbon monoxide, sulfur dioxide, and various
oxides of nitrogen. The substances behave like air and thus
do not settle out. (2) Particulate pollutants are minute
solid or liquid drOplets that float with air movements and
thus rarely settle out. It is obvious from the preceding
statistics that smoke is not always the main culprit. These

pollutants are not usually readily seen or felt unless they

 

loBrandt, Stafford. “Air is for more than Breathing",
A Plage to Live, the Yearbook of Agriculture, washington,
D.C., 1963.

67
are in high concentrations like the infamous Los Angeles
“Smog“ - and can be detrimental to the health of the human
beings and other animal and biological organisms.

The planner should be concerned with this aSpect of
pollution Since it is an integral part of all the factors
that produce the “good life“ that we are all striving for.

Summary: The urban planner has to know all the
factors affecting the elements that he is manipulating to
produce the optimum arrangement of uses. Recreation,
health, beauty and future ecological development should be
considered as interwoven factors to be implemented with any

ideal arrangement of Land Uses.

Major New Policies Affecting the Region

Up to the present this chapter has dealt with prob—
lems and issues affecting the urban pattern. In part it
pointed a gloomy picture and justifiably so. However, there
has been some policy decisions and recommendations at all
levels - Federal, State, Local government and private
interests - toward a new attitude toward the problems dis-
cussed and urban problems in general. In the following
section we will attempt to list some of these pertinent

policies.

The Administgative Branch:

President JOhnson has been keenly interested in the

urban problems and has striven to propose and implement

68
policies that are very significant considering the tremendous
power at his diSposal. A cursory review of these important
Speeches follows:

1. On January 27th, 1964, President JOhnson
delivered his Housing Message to Congress in which he intro-
duced the 'Housing and Community Development Act Of1964'
and a bill to establish a department of Housing and Community
DevelOpment. The Bill contains two sections that contain
potential for the shaping of regional growth.

(a) The prOposal - inaccurately identified as a
"New'Towns Program“ - which prOposes “New Communities“ which
can be adapted to our metropolitan growth pattern and needs,
and to already existing methods of private development.

(b) A new’FHA mortgage program which will assist
private develOperS in financing both land requisition and
develOpment costs.

2. On May 22, 1964 President Johnson introduced his
dream of “The Great Society“ in a commencement address at
the University of Michigan from which the following quotations
are excerpted.

”YOur imagination, your initiative, your indignation,
will determine whether we build a society where pro-
gress is the servant of our needs, or a society where
old values and new visions are buried under un-
bridled growth.“

”In the next 40 years, we must rebuild the entire
urban United States. -- There is the decay of the
centers and the deSpoiling of the suburbs. There is
not enough housing for our people or tranSportation

for our traffic. Open land is vanishing and Old
landmarks are violated.”

69

”The water we drink, the food we eat, the very air we

breath, are threatened by pollution. Our parks are

overcrowded, and our seashore over burdened. Green

fields and dense forests are disappearing“.

3. In his most recent Speech - the State of the

Union message to Congress on January 5, 1965, President
JOhnson made the following statements:

“In our urban areas the central problem today is to

protect and restore man's satisfaction in belonging

to a community where he can find security and
significance."

The first step is to break old patterns - to bggin
to thipk. -- wopk, and lan for the develo ent of

the entire metropglitan area.

“New and existing programs will be Open to those
cities which work together to develOp unified long-
range policies for metrOpolitan areas".

“we must make a massive effort to save the country-
side and establish - as a green legacy for tomorrow -
more large and small parks, more seaShores and

Open Spaces than have been created in any period in
our history“.

Ihg ngiglative Branch:
1. The open Space land program under the administra-

tion of HHFA provides grants up to 20 percent of the cost Of
acquiring Open Space for parks, recreation conservation, and
scenic or historic purposes. Where applicants act for an
entire grban region, the grants may be increased up to 30
percent.

2. In 1962 Congress passed "The Highway Act of
1962“. This Act requires after July, 1965, that before any
Federal highway can be built in an urban area of over 50,000
pOpulation, that there be under way a continuing comprehen-

sive tranSportation planning process conducted with the

70
participation of the local communities involved.

3. Congress recently passed the "Land and Water
Conservation Fund Act of 1965"11 which has been effective
Since January 4, 1965. This Act was created for the purpose
of procuring and develOping facilities for present and
future recreation needs of the American peOple. This should
be accomplished by (1) providing funds and authorizing
Federal assisance to the states in planning, acquisition
and development of needed land and water areas and facili—
ties and, (2) providing funds for the Federal acquisition
and develOpment of lands and other areas.

The act provides for advance apprOpriations for any
of the primary purposes of the act such as planning, ac-
quisition of land or water prOpertieS, and/or development
of the properties for Outdoor recreation. The state has to
repay the advance apprOpriations. The state however, can
receive up to 50 percent of the cost of planning, acquisition
or develOpment projects, providing that the project is
approved by the secretary of the Interior. It is note-
worthy to point out that ”a comprehensive statewideoutdoor
recreation plan shall be required prior to the consideration
by the Secretary of Financial Assistance."

The Federal government agencies such as the

National Park System, the National Forest System, and

 

11U. S. Public Law 88~578, 88th Congress H.R. 3846,
September 1964.

71
wildlife conservation agencies will receive their allotments
directly from the President. The Federal agencies cannot,
however, use appropriations from the "fund“ for acquisition

purposes unless it is authorized by law.

PrivateAQevelopment Decisions:

Recently private develOpers have been sold on the
advantage of comprehensive planning. AS a result two
important courses of action are being followed. (1) The
large develOper is looking to the regional agency for pre-
liminary guidance and abiding by its long range plans, where
those plans make sense to him. An example of this is the
develOpment of the city of Reston, Virginia in accordance
with the National Capital Regional Planning Commission's
plans. (2) Private developpers are taking the initiative
and prOposing a plan (prepared by professional planners)
for the entire development and its relation to its environ-
ment. Examples of this type are, El Dorado Hills, the City
of Irvine, California.

Public recognition and demand for action on urban
problems have also been manifested by such private groups
as “California Tomorrow“ which has published two scathing
reports on existing urban problems in California entitled

California GoingI Going . .7- , and The Phantom Cities of

California.

CHAPTER III

CONCEPTUAL BACKGROUND OF SPATIAL PATTERNS

In order to fully understand the various pattern'
proposals that the "present day” planners - to distinguish
them from the "utOpian“ planners - have been recommending
as alternative patterns or forms for the region, it is
necessary to discuss the origin of these prOposals. The
utOpian writers, philosophers, as well as some planners,
discussed in this chapter have set a precedent for our
present thinking through their ideas, principles and illus-
trations. It must be kept in mind, however, that the
utOpian was concerned with the solutions of a problem that
existed in his epoch. The problem was not always confined
to the physical aSpectS and usually reflected a social or
political problem. For this reason it was deemed necessary
to present a background for each of the proposals discussed.

The historical precedents section will be followed
by a brief evaluation which in turn will be followed by a
summary of theoretical patterns that can be utilized as

examples of ideal Spatial patterns for the region.

Historical Precedents
Since evolution rather than importance of concepts

is stressed in this section, the prOposals will be discussed

72

73

in chronological order. It is also important to point out
that this section will not attempt to cover all the ideas
and plans prOposed by utopian writers, architects, and
planners. It will rather cover a selection of ideal
prOposals that are applicable to large scale planning and each
group will represent a diverse set of ideas which will set
the stage for further discussion.
1. Soria y Mata, La Ciudad.Linea1, 1882

a. Background of Proposal - Soria y Mata was a
Spanish newSpaper writer who devoted his column to city ad—
ministrative and social reform in Madrid. He repeatedly
preached the use of the new scientific innovations such as
electric power, steam heat, telephone, and elevated and
underground railway lines, for the betterment of life in
Spain. This concept was developed by him over a period of
time, but finally published in a detailed article headed
"La Ciudad Lineal".

b. Outline of PrOposal: The main concepts of
Soria's prOposal for a Lineal City consist of —

1) The use of a street, 40 meters (122 ft) wife,
and of indefinite length, as the axis of
"baCkbone“ for land development.

2) This street would be intersected at inter-
vals of 300 meters (925 ft) by secondary
streets 20 meters (61 ft) in width, thus
forming large superblocks of 40,000 to 60,000

square meters' area.

3) A track for both trolleys and railroad will
be located in the center of the axial street.

4) The super blocks are to be further subdivided
into residential lots with compulsory setbacks
(5 meters) (15.3 ft).

74

5) WorkShOps, stores, markets, and community
facilities were to be placed in the center
of the blocks.

6) The total of width of this (1525 ft)
development will total to about 500 meters
extending indefinitely and joining together
two, older, established, "point-cities”.

c. Effect on Planning: Soria was the forerunner
of the use of strip develOpment as a planning concept. The
use originally contemplated by Soria is both organization-
ally and aesthetically acceptable. Other artitects and
planners have incorporated some of the major principles of
using a tranSportation axis, separating uses by strips of
green belts, and the limitation and consolidation of
development within a strip. The later schemes have been

worthwhile additions to regional planning theory.

2. Ebenezer Howard, Garden Cities of Tomorrow, 1898

a. Background of PrOposal - Ebenezer Howard at-
tempted tO solve the problems that were precipitated by the
industrial revolution in 19th century England. Congested
dwelling units and lack of Open Space were two of the major
issues that concerned Howard. His prOposal used London as
the problem area, and this suggested that its population
should be reduced by utilizing his new satellite towns.

b. Outline of PrOposal - Howard recommends the
following guidelines for his proposal:

1) Each town should be constructed according to
a predetermined size, accomodating 32,000 people.

2) The towns Should be separated from each other
by “greenbelts” of Open land devoted to agri-
cultura1,,institutional, and recreational uses.

75
3) Each town should be self sufficient, thus
Should contain industrial, commercial, and
professional facilities for the employment
of its own population.

4) Land should be owned by the municipality and
leased to the individual occupants.

5) A regional pattern should consist of a series
of new towns, about ten in number, surrounding
a core city in the center and bound closely
by public rapid transit.

6) The design of the individual towns should
consist of concentric circles of uses
starting at the center with a central park and
progressing through: a commercial ring, a
residential ring, an institutional ring, an-
other residential ring, and finally an indus—
trial ring next to a circumferential railroad
and, of course, the “greenbelt“.

7) The density in the residential areas should be
about twenty dwelling units per net acre.

c. Effect on Planning: Howard"s prOposals have
the unique distinction of being accepted and effectuated
both in England and the United States. “New'Towns“ and
"Greenbelts" have been accepted as national planning policy
in England and with minor variations in the construction of
the three "Greenbelt Towns“ in the U.S. (1935-38). The
regional implications, therefore, do not have to be imagined
Since the proof that this prOposal works can already be seen
by actual examples. The prOposal does, in fact, help create
an orderly pattern of efficient cities that help decrease

the population pressure of the central city.

3. Erich Gloeden, Die Inflation Der Gross-StAdte, 1923
a. BaCkground of PrOposal: The author, a German,

reflected the feelings of change brought about after the

76
first WOrld War and the ensuing inflation that struck
Germany at that time. The translation of the title “Die
Inflation Der Gross-Stadte" is — The Inflation of the
Large City.
5. Proposal Outline: The author prOposes a metro-
polis of

l) A number of identical cells of 100,000
pOpulation.

2) Each unit has its own characteristic function
and is completely self contained and is not
dependent on a central city for employment or
any other urban function.

3) All the units Should function together as
one whole unit with equal parts.

4) The units are linked by an inter urban rail-
way system and are served by public facilities
located in the greenbelts surrounding each
individual cell.

5) Each unit has a diameter of 15 miles which is
equivalent to 15 minutes walk from the edge
to the center. The design includes a core
of establishments unique to that cell surrounded
by residential districts grade in intensity
from high to low in outward progression. The
greenbelt envelopping the whole honeycomb
measures 1/2 a mile between the edges of any
two cells.

6) Growth would be accomplished through the
addition of more individual cells with no
apparent limit to the number of additions.

c. Effect on Planning: Since its inception, this
idea provided an alternative to the satellite town approach
suggested by Howard Since it is completely detached from any
previous core city. The elements that have been accepted

and further developed in other forms include the walk to

work distance relationship, and the segregation of

77
activities, especially the offensive ones, to a greenbelt
outside the proper boundaries of the unit.

On a regional scale, the proposal would permit the
construction of a whole urban pattern by constructing the
individual cells separately. Interrelationships between
the cells and the connecting tranSportation will require

much planning and forethought.

4. Le Corbusier, the City of Tomorrow, 1924

a. Background of PrOposal: Le Corbusier is a re-
knowned French architect who at this period in his career
was enchanted with the American skyscraper and visualized
unlimited possibilities for this technological phenomenon.
This prOposal was recommended by him as an essay in plan-
ning, or rather replanning, the City of Paris.

b. Outline of PrOposal: Le Corbusier's proposal
emphasized a concentrated highly imaginable plan made up
of the following points:

1) The core of the city is composed of a
series of skyscraper office buildings set
in green open Spaces.

2) A residential zone surrounds the inner
district and it also is composed of high
rise structures set in green Open Spaces.

3) The final boundary or zone is a greenbelt
which also includes some community facil-

ities but is mostly devoted to recreation.

4) An industrial area is set aside outside
the proper zone, but is underemphasized.

5) All the zones are on a superblock scale
of approximately 200 to 400 meters long.
These blocks are connected by an under-
ground rapid transit as well as multilevel

78
circulation facilities.

‘6) The pOpulation density in the residential
area is set at 50 dwelling units per acre
while the office core density can reach
1200 workers per acre.

c. Effect on Planning: This prOposal in Spite of
its failing cannot help but inspire the imagination with
its visual grandeur. The principle Of conservation, or the
creation of Open Space through the use of high rise
structures set in green open areas is a meritorious one
and is proving to beleneficial in present day renewal
efforts. The separation of tranSportation uses to high
Speed, high capacity systems is also of great value. The
regional implication of this prOposal is simply that growth
will be shifted inward and upward rather than indefinitely

outward.

5. Frank Lloyd Wright, Broadacre City, 1932

a. Background of PrOposal: Wright presents an
antithesis to Le Corbusier's prOposal in this plan. It is a
pure, rural, ideal society where the author‘s midwestern
origin is readily obvious.

b. Outline of PrOposal: The basic philosophy he-
hind this prOposal is the closeness of man to land and the
agrarian American heritage. The main aSpects which give
this philoSOphy “form" follow:

1) The major land uses are grouped together by
type of use with the public facilities

(serving the land uses) located near highway
intersections.

79

2) The highway is an indispensable link tying
all the land use groupings to each other
while at the same time separating the
categories of Land Use into groupings.
The grid is therefore the general form-
ative transportation system in this
prOposal.

3) The ideal of one acre per family is the
general density for this prOposal.

4) There is no limit to growth as long as
there is land available.

c. Effect on Planning: The regional planner does
not have to strive too hard to emulate the “Broadacre"
proposal. The only difference between the design and the
present trend of city growth is Wright‘s architectural
organization and discipline. In fact what Wright proposed
as ”the City of the Future” might bet become "the Region of

Today".

6. Jose Luis Sert, Human Scale in City Planning, 1944

a. Background of PrOposal: This proposal is made
by a European trained architect-planner with an-excellent
knowledge of the Western world. He is both aware of the
post WOrld War II reconstruction problems and is a willing
contributor toward the solution of those problems. This
proposal was submitted as a symposium contribution to the
CIAM (The International Congress of Modern Architects).
The theme pertained to the establishment of criteria, for
new development and a concomitant approach to forms of post-
war “three dimensional organization“.

b. Outline of PrOposal: Sert's proposal can be

classified as a linear-city concept. The extent in which

his proposal
1)

2)

3)

4)

5)

6)

7)

8)

Co

80
goes beyond the basic concept is outlined below:

The author assumes the existence of a
direct causal chain from a physically
organized environment to a viable

social structure and thence to an indi-
vidual's good life. There is, therefore,
a hierarchy of identically Similar units
except that they grow in scale as they
progress to a larger environment.

The human rather than the vehicle is
stressed as the unit of design.

The most ideal housing type permits high
immediate density within Open surroundings.

The hierarchy of units mentioned above con-
sists of eight neighborhoods around a
“township“ center: and a number (usually
two) of "townships“ around a "Civic Center“,
finally a group of civic centers run the
length of the prOposed metrOpolis and are
joined to the main artery of traffic.

A heavy industrial district runs along the
main artery.

A greenbelt envelOps the residential neigh-
borhoods, townships and civic centers and is
used as a buffer along the traffic artery
and heavy industrial district.

Circulation within the individual neighbor-
hoods is by foot, while a rectangular grid

of rectangular highways connect the individual
townships to the main linear artery serving the
region.

Expansion and growth is accomodated by the
addition of units.

Effect on Planning: This scheme was picked as

one of the more SOphisticated variations of the newer

utOpian prOposals by such other proponents of the lineal

city as Garnier, and Hilberseimer. They all prOpose a

drastic reorganization of the city as we know it today.

According to the prOponents of this reorganization it is

81
imperative if the city is to survive in this modern world of

industry and its resulting artifacts.

7. S. E. Sanders and A. J. Rabuck. New City Patterns, 1946

a. Background of PrOposal: Both authors are site
planners with experience in the Federal government building
programs and are eSpecially familiar with the Washington
and Baltimore metrOpolitan areas. Their book is concerned
with the various aSpects of post-war city rebuilding and
the economic justification of such action.

b. Outline of PrOposal: The authors place high
emphasis on control of the various urban elements in order
to achieve certain objectives. These are spelled out as
follows:

1) The semi-independent, low density neighborn
hood is held to be a desirable objective of
the new physical environment.

2) The core of the city will consist of a
commercial district. Emanating from the
center outward, and followin a radial
street pattern, Six (or more linear neigh-
borhoods are develOped. Each of these
neighborhoods are separated from the adjoin-
ing sector by a wedge of Open Space which in
turn accomodates institutional and recreation-
al facilities.

3) Each radial sector will house an approx-
imate 3,000 to 10,000 population.

4) The circulation pattern is made up of both
radial and ring, limited access highways
that help channel traffic away from the
neighborhoods.

5) The Optimum density of this prOposal is
thirty families per net acre.

82

6) Industrial develOpmentS are placed outside
the neighborhoods in the periphery of city
and serviced by both a ring road and a
railroad.

c. Effect on Planning: This prOposal was a
forerunner to various schemes presented for the development
of both the Washington and Baltimore regions. These plans
will be discussed in greater detail in the next chapter.
8. Victor Gruen. "How to Handle Congestion and

Scatteration”, 1956

a. Background of Proposal: Victor Gruen is an
architect-planner and a consultant on citygianning who has
achieved fame in "Downtown Renewal" in various American
cities. He was asked by ArChitectural Forum Magazine to
propose a new method of planning to solve the problems of
congestion and scatteration.

b. Outline of PrOposal: Gruen utilized many con~
cepts already prOposed by other utOpian writers. He has,
however, achieved a functional amalgamation of both
theoretical thought and practical understanding as can be
gathered by the following points.

1) The regional pattern will be made up of a
hierarchy of "Clusters" that escalate from
the individual to family, social unit,
neighborhood, community centers, town
center, metrOpolitan center, and finally
a regional cluster.

2) All the subclusters are based on a walking
distance standard devised for its specific
conditions and purposes.

3) Each cluster unit and their grouping are
outlined and separated by “neutral Open

areas" which serve recreational or
agricultural uses.

83

4) A transportation system of railroad,
freeways, and express roads will utilize
the neutral Open spaces to connect the
individual clusters without piercing any
protected zone of human activity.

5) All lOOp terminal points will include
automobile storage facilities of all
classes from Simple surface parking to
more complex underground and high rise
facilities. This feature is particularly
important at the hierarchy of centers
serving their respective cluster units.

6) POpulation limit for the individual town
units will range from 50,000 to 200,000
peOple.

c. Effect on Planning: The concepts prOposed are
not new Gruen's arrangements and organization, however, are
new. For example, Gruen°s prOposal for isolated neighborhoods
with their own service facilities of education and commer-
cial facilities have been prOposed by Purdy: the separation
of traffic from residential areas and the maximization of
walking facilities has been prOposed by Stein, the hier-
archical order of communities has been prOposed by Doxiadis.

The positive contribution that this proposal does
make is its conciliation of the technological and the human
factors. Its synthesis of previous prOposals can serve as a
new framework to control and channel growth through the
control of the facilities for movement and the areas they

serve.

Evaluation of the Ideal Patterns
The patterns presented in the previous section have
served a very useful purpose. They have provided the peOple

of their time with a possible solution to the problems

84

plaguing them, and the people of today with a useful refer»
ence to possible solutions to similar problems that exist
today. The problems that faced each of the authors
presented varied in nature and goals. The nature of the
problem can also be stated as the season for its existence.
The regions might be of a pure physical (structural) nature
but more often were of a social, political and economic
nature with the categories combining to include more than
one of the categorieso The goals and the methods of carry-
ing them out, however, differed While the nature of the
problem remained the same. For the sake of this evaluation
the goals that were stated most often and thus the goals that
will be used to evaluate the various pnoposals will consist
of the following:

1) Congestion

2) Open Space

3) Spatial Organization

4) Flexibility of growth

The above are grouped according to their importancea
This importance was objectively deduced from the proposals
and thus reflect the values of the authorso The goals also

include numerous subgoals and objectives that will be

brought out in the evaluation which followso

Congestion: Congestion was the primary problem of Y Mata,
Howard, Wright, and Gruen. Soria Y Mata was concerned with
the congestion in Spain‘s large cities, eSpecially the
working class housing problem. His prOposal suggested a

method of acquiring, develOping, leasing, and servicing land

85
thus enabling the workingman to live in comparatively
Spacious surroundings while at the same time being able to
go to the central city via the train which was the "Spine"
of Soria's prOposalo Howard was concerned with the same
problem - congestion Of the city of London. His prOposal,
like Soria‘s, prOposed acquiring, develOping, leasing and
servicing lando The proposal, however, differed in its
linkage to the central city, Where Soria‘s development
would be tied to the central city by the railroad, Howard
proposed an independent entity complete with all the urban
facilities Of the larger city. Wright exceeded both pre-
viously named authors in the scope of his solution to con-
gestion. He proposed wideSpread home ownership on “one
acre” parcelso Where all three above authors were concerned
with pOpulation congestion Gruen added a new dimension,
congestion of the motor vehicle in addition to the conges-
tion of housing and peOple, Gruen prOposed a functional
separation of the motor vehicle from the activities of the
peopleo His land use proposals considered the need of the
motor vehicle and provided separate facilities for its per-

formance without encroaching on human activitieso

Open Space: The next major problem is that of Open Spaceo
This Space was used by all the authors in various way in-
cluding: Space as a separator, Space for health reasons,
Space for recreation, and so on. Since all the authors
emphasized Open Space in some form or another we shall conm

fine the discussion to prOposals that placed emphasis on

86
Open space as an "end" in itselfo These included such
authors aS Howard, Le Corbusier, Wright, and Sanders and
Rabuch.

Howard considered Open Space as a desirable
objective to alleviate the congested conditions that
existed in London. He proposed the use Of Open Space in the
form of parks within the new towns and ”greenbelts“ to
separate them from the central city. Le Corbusier viewed
Open Space as both precious land to be conserved and as an
aesthetic surrounding for health and recreation. His high
rise buildings concentrated develOpment on land otherwise
preempted by urbanization and thus freed the land for all
the other purposes mentioned aboveo Wright used tact that
is directly opposite to Le Corbusier in order to achieve
a Similar objective. Wright°s proposal provided the “Open
Space” on an individual basis rather than the community
approaCh suggested by all the other authors. Finally,
Sanders and Rabuck prOposed a system of Open Space "wedges”
to separate the urban ”sectors“ and to provide Space for

recreation and community facilities.

Spatial Organization: The goal of Spatial organization
like the goal of providing “Open Space" was advocated by all
the authors presented. This is only rational since the
nation of “ideal pattern” incorporates a nation of “Spatial
organization". The term might, however, sound nebulous and
thus an explanation is provided. Spatial organization

connotes an orderly arrangement of Spaces which in this case

87
include both static uses and activities. More Specifically
”Spatial organization" is concerned with relationships and
linkages such as land distributions, production distribution,
"home to work” relationship, and “transportation to land use“
relationships.

Since all the authors suggest some sort Of Spatial
organization, only the authors who emphasized organization as
a unique goal and provide an example of the above definition,
will be discussed, These include Howard, Gloeden, Sert,
and Gruen.

Howard“s suggested a wide scope of land use
organization ranging from the arrangement of houses within
the city to the arrangement of individual cities in relation
to a central City. His proposal Specified location, sizes,
densities, and type of land use through the use “rings”o
(circular land use areas), Gloeden was more concerned with
an economic Spatial organization. His distribution of
cells included all the urban elements required for the mainm
tenance of a town with the exception that eaCh of the cells
also had a ”Specialty” m an actiVity that was unique to
that cell such as government, industry, higher education,
and so on, Sert was concerned with the relationship Of
living and working functions to each other, His "township”
and "neighborhood“ units were located within a walking
distance to work, education, and commercial facilities.
Finally, Gruen epitomized many of the Spatial organization

features of the other ideal patterns and added a distinct

88
contribution by focussing his attention on the relationship

of transportation to land use and the vehicle to mane

Flexibility of Growth:

Unlike the previous goals mentioned, not all the
authorsfulfilled the goal of flexibility of growth in their
prOposalso We have to limit flexibility in this evaluation,
Since any proposal can become flexible if it can be rem
produced in total without consideration of cost. This
section will, therefore, limit flexibility to the ability
to add increments of growth to an already established
pattern without disrupting its continuity, its wholeness,
and/or its spatial organizationo

According to the above definition we automatically
eliminate the following proposals as inflexible: Howard‘s
“New Towns”, Gloeden's “Cells”, Le Corbusier“s “concentrated
city“, Sanders and Rabuck°s "Radical Sector°s“ proposal as
they state it is inflexible, however, the design can be
very flexible if there is no limit to place on the population
of each sectoro Through the process of elimination we,
therefore, have the following patterns which are flexible:
"The lineal city“, Wright°s ”Broadacre City“, Sert"s
proposal, and Gruen"s proposalo It might relevant to note
that Gruen°s prOposal in spite of its resemblance to the
satellite pattern, is not strictly limited in that each of
the subgroups can grow independently through the addition of
"Neighborhood Units”, and for that matter, so can the

central cityo

89
Further Critique:

One glaring ommission from any of the proposals was
the subject of costo This is only natural since the
proposals are “ideal" and “utOpian“ and thus "cost is no
object". If these ”ideals" were to be translated into
reality then by all means cost is a major objecto

Another major assumption that the authors have taken
is that the proposal can be implemented the way they have
described it. In other words, using our decision model
terms from the first chaptero the authors consider their
proposals as "strategies"0 This is also understandable if,
and only if” we consider these prOposals as theoretical

modelsn

Theoretical §patial Patterns

 

The previous section dealt with the various proposals
suggested by utOpian thinkers as ideal communitieso They
have been chosen as a representative selection of historical
ideals, but they can also be used as a basis of deriving
theoretical patterns with no regard to the background
issues that Spurred their prOposalo These pure forms can
serve as ideal theoretical form possibilitieso

In order to simplify the selection of the theoretie
cal patternswthe previous eight proposals are further v~jf
limited to six basic irreconcilable patternso This process a
is demonstrated in figure 80 The patterns are:

1. Satellite or New Town Pattern

2. Polynucleation
30 Linear Pattern

,1

9O
4. Radial Corridor
5. Uniform DiSperSion
60 Intensive Development
Eadh of the above alternatives will be discussed separately
in the following section and illustrated in Figure 90
l. The Satellite or New Town Pattern
‘mThe Satellite pattern is based on the theory
that growth emanating from a large, already—established
urban community will take place in individual smaller towns
which can be self-sufficient (New Towns) or can be dependent
on the large city for the provision of work (Satellites).
'This pattern will require the following control requirements

:3£,$F8 effectuation: Density control in both the central

city and thesatellites, control of Open Space in order to

Jun-rim“... -'

—-—--’

_Sreatewaflbuffer gone between the cities involved; in the case
cfmthe dependent satellites an adequate tranSportation link—
~age to the central (core) city is neededo

2m Polynucleaticn Pattern

In comparison to the satellite scheme each of the

- :.‘,-'-(€’m+.-. '3

towns within the Polynucleaticn Scheme is totally self
sufficient in regards to its immediate urban functions, yet
duemtc its specialization in one means of livelihood it is
dependent on all the other Specialized units for the remainder
of the urban needs associated with a metropolisS

This pattern will require controls that exceed those
of “new towns”o In addition to density controls this pattern
will require very thorough planning of the physical and

economic developments as well as the network of freeways

91
\required to tie all the units together.
-fl 3. Linear Pattern

‘The Linear Pattern is based on the principle
ofwaypontiguous line of development bordering a transport-
ation facility. Controls will not be as stringent as the
-previous two patterns. The most important requirements of
this pattern is the tranSportation ”spine" that will
serve as well as unite the development bordering it. It
must be pointed out that the develOpment does not have to
take place immediately adjoining the transportation facilityo
It must, however, be continuouso

4o _Radial Corridor Pattern_,

This pattern_is based on the combinationvgfdtwo
principles: a:dominant core%and a linear pattern of expan-
sion. The urban development on the radial tranSportation
facility are generally termed as foorridorsf? The differu
ence between this pattern and the linear pattern iscghgfi
control exerted on the preservation of open Space between

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of roads is the basis of this patterno Controls will be

required to maintain "diSpersal" possibly through large

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The grid system of roads will be an_indiSpensab1e factor in

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maintaining and servicing this pattern.
‘wfll 6. Intensive Development
This scheme prOposes the concentration of all

urban activities, thus it is diametrically opposed to all
the previous alternatives of growth. The symbol and tool
of this pattern will be the high rise building whether for
residential, industrial, or commercial purposes. In order
to achieve this concentration high develOpment controls will
be required. The tranSportation system will also need to be
very intensive at the local level since it has to serve
large volumes ”of people within a relatively small area.

The theoretical alternative patternstresented in
the previous sections were in-fact used by the city
planning profession as a guide in suggesting alternative
spatial patterns. Most of these attempts were undertaken
nagflpartflgfflthgjfpolicy planfi discussed in chapter I.
Seven reports were chosen for review in the next chapter for
their coverage of the concept and use of alternative
patterns in the planning process. As a way of introducing
the patterns used in each of the above mentioned reports and
as a summary of this chapter's introduction to form
patterns, the following two figures (figures 10 and 11)
have been compiled.
Figure 10 presents a summary of alternative patterns

as they have been used by the reports reviewed in the next

Chapter. The following observations are notable: (1) that

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95
there is a shift of emphasis from the practical basis of
generating form, such as the Erie and.Hartford plans, to a
theoretical basis, to the point of duplicating the list of
"ideal" forms presented in this chapter. This point will
be discussed further in the next chapter. (2) That the
terminology used to describe the various patterns were not
standardized and varied with each plan. The contents, how»
ever, weretsimilar. (3) That the more theoretical the
plans were the longer the list of alternatives (such as the
Twin Cities' Study).

Figure 11 translates all the proposed alternatives
in the various reports and reduces them to the basic list
proposed in this chapter. It is interesting to note that
there were only three patterns, based on theoretical growth
form, that did not conform to the basic list. These are,
however, variations of the other patterns.

Prior to terminating the discussion of theoretical
patterns it is relevant to state that even the list of six
alternatives whiCh is a summary of the various theoretical
possibilities, can further be narrowed down to four vari-
ables: concentration, diapersion, dependence and independ-
ence. The last two variables refer to the autonomy of
spatially separated units from the control or influence of
a major central city or an adjoining unit. This factor is
particularly important when we consider the economic and

cultural dependency of the units in question.

96

Since the four variables make up two continuums
each consisting of two Opposite variables, they can readily
form a framework for identifying and evaluating a whole
series of alternative forms that will not be necessary
based on previous proposals. This framework can then
accomodate practically an infinite amount of ideas that
might possibly relate to regional growth. This framework
is illustrated in figure 12. The basic six categories can

now be described by their location within this framework.

 

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CHAPTER IV
RECENT UTILIZATION OF SPATIAL
PATTERNS IN THE FIELD OF URBAN PLANNING

The previous chapter helped set the stage for the
present discussion by presenting an ideal and a conceptual
framework for generating alternative Spatial patterns for
the urban region. The discussion stressed the idealism
of sudh patterns throughout to the point where an erroneous
conclusion can be deduced that alternative patterns are
“utopian" thinking. The planner has recently relied on
alternative patterns as a guide to future possible develop-
ment. The patterns are still 'ideal', however, the conno-
tation of the term has changed. The “ideal“ in this case,
connotes the best possible future growth develOpment based
on the goals and resources of the community, and not a
"dream" or a "philosophical ideology“.

Since the patterns per so have been thoroughly dis-
cussed in the previous chapter, the present discussion will
dwell on techniques, methodologies, and reasons behind the

usage of such ptterns.
A Review of Recent Planning_Publications

The use of alternative Spatial problems for the

develOpment of the region until recently has been mostly of

100

lOl
academic interest. The rise of the regional planning
agency into prominence coupled with a shift in the
planning profession to the policy plan approach, described
at the beginning of this section, have resulted in a ris-
ing number of publications dealing with the subject. The
following section will review some of the most recent
publications. These publications were chosen for their use
of slightly different approaches in the utilization of
alternative Spatial patterns. The following six publications
were chosen:

1. Erie, Pa. Planning Concept Report, 1960 (part
I & II)

2. Regional Plan Alternatives (Hartford, Conn.)
3. A Plan for the Year 2000 (Washington, D.C.)

4. 0n Wedges and Corridors (The WashingtoneMaryland
Region)

5. The Joing Program, MetrOpolitan Studies
(Minneapolis—St. Paul)

6. Alternative Patterns of Development (Puget Sound
In order to standardize the discussion and thus arrive at a
common evaluation criteria for each of the reports, the
following framework will be utilized:

a. Introduction: agency, location, year of publi—
cation

b. Planning approach: Relation of alternatives to
the overall planning process

c. Purpose: Evaluation and selection of alterna-
tives

d. Results: If any results have developed since
the preposal

102
e. Contribution to the planning profession
1. Erie (Pa.) - Planning Concept Report, £960

a. Introduction: A two part report: the first dealing
with Alternatiyg Concepts, and the second, with
Operational Researdh. The reports were prepared
for Erie County, the City of Erie, and a Citizen
Action Committee, by Maurice Rotival & Associates,
Planning Consultants. The plans were published
in 1960.

b. Planning Approach: The ”Alternate Concepts“ stage
is the second step in a four step process outlined
as follows:

Step 1 Step 2 Step 3 Step 4

Reconnaissance Concept Study Master Plan Action

The concept studies are therefore a synthesis of the
potential possibilities uncovered in the research work under-
taken in the reconnaissance stage. One important assumption
was the thesis that the St. Lawrence Seaway would open up
new "zones” with new or invigorated economies. 0n the basis
of this assumption the City of Erie could serve as'a link
between the Pittsburgh economy and the rest of the national
economy including the drawing power on Canadian resources.
This thesis became the anchor of four alternative concepts:

1 - Continuation of existing trends

2 - Moderate growth with planned concentration

3 & 3a - Large port with extended industrial

zone on harbor: Port and peninsula serving
Pitsburgh.

103
4 & 4a - Balanced industrial economy. Developed
industrial harbor serving city, county
and satellites. Strong regional retail
center in the central business district.

Each of the alternatives were scrupulously backed by
a set of elaborate economic input and output statistics
and charts under the title of “operational research".

These charts graphed the economy and future requirements of
the region over four periodical intervals: 1960, 1965,

1980, and 2000. These were in turn illustrated in the form
of flow diagrams that have the advantage of revealing in-
side movements between different sectors or components of the
economy. An example of such a diagram is reproduced for
illustration purposes in figure 13.

The report further discusses and illustrates the
consequences of each of the four concepts chosen on the
county (region) area, the city, and the CBD. Detailed dis-
cussion of concepts as well as decisions required to bring

about change are stated for each of the hierarchy of Spatial

areas.

C. Purpose: The planners concerned already had a receptive
and eager audience since the reports were commissioned and
supported mainly by the “Citizens Action Committee“ which
had already shown its civic interest and understanding of
planning benefits through the publication of their own
report “Community Answers to Planner's Questions“ which

dealt with goals and objectives for the community.

104

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105

The use of the alternatives was therefore a device
to rational decision making by the reSponsible elements of
the community. The citizenry accepted the fact that “no
single decision can be made in isolation since all factors
need to be intimately interrelated and in balance one with
another within the entire community.“

The purpose of the study of alternatives (spatial
patterns) was therefore, to facilitate the understanding of
the issues and consequently to execute the accessory

decisions.

D. Results: The concepts were studied and discussed by the
”Citizen Action Committee," its sub-committee, and the Public
Agencies involved with the following results:
(1) Concepts 1 and 2 were rejected because the
present rate of growth and economic develop-

ment was considered unsatisfactory.

(2) Concepts 3 and 3a were rejected because they
were not deemed economically feasible.

(3) Concept 4a (a variation of 4, whereby,
multiple access to the region is possible
instead of a single highway approaCh to the
city) was accepted, because it was made in
keeping with the cultural traditions of the

region, and was the most logical direction of
future growth.

E. Contributions to the planning profession were made
through the utilization of a technique that was foreign to
the design conscious planning profession of the time - the
use of the economic input output theory as a tool to

scientifically substantiate alternative spatial decisions.

106
This was a precursor of future usage of mathematical and

computer techniques as decision making aids.

2. Regional Plan Alternatives (Hartford)
a. Introduction: This report was prepared by the

staff of the Capitol Region Planning Agency, with head-
quarters in Hartford, Connecticut. The plan was pre-
sented to the constituent municipalities and the general
public in November 1961.

b. Planning Approach: The capitol Region Planning
Agency is an advisory commission with no power to enforce
its recommendations. In order to develOp a policy guide-
line for a regional land use plan, it had to first, co-
ordinate the various existing policies in the 30 consti-
tuent municipalities and get a policy concensus as a
starting point in the planning process.

The Capitol Region Planning Agency prOposed four
alternative land use patterns for review and discussion
by the various municipalities. These consisted of:

(l) The "Balanced Plan“ which reorganized the
pOpular policy of balancing residential
development with nonnresidential tax sources.
Thus, a deliberate distribution of industry
according to the existing population of each
individual town.

(2) The "Satellite Plan" proposed the distribution
of future development among five or six major

urban clusters of municipalities. Each of

107
these clusters would, theoretically, be
relatively self-sufficient.

(3) The "Linear Plan“ in which all intense urban

development would be located in the Connecticut
Valley. This area already contains the major-
ity of new industry, and the highest concentra-
tion of urban development as well as most public
water and sewage diaposal facilities.

(4) The “Strong Center Plan“ was prOposed for the

purpose of objectivity but was labeled with

”THE STRONG CENTER PLAN IS NOT RECOMMENDED FOR

FURTHER CONSIDERATION." Under this plan,

develOpment would be concentrated in the core of

the region.
The various plans alternative were badked up by statistical
data regarding population, density, land requirement, and
job distribution. The plans were further supplemented by a
list of implications resulting from the following factors.
Local government, local taxes, public services, central
city, community identification, economic forces, land
suitability, residential development, transportation, and
conservation.

c. Results: The report was given wide distribution
among public and private officials, and the alternatives
received intensive newspaper and television coverage. The
planning agency's efforts were concentrated between the

individual representative decision makers and public town

108
meetings. An example of the evaluation criteria presented
at such meetings is included as an example of the planning
effort as figure 5.

Initial reaction of the public favored the “Balanced
Plan" due to its appealing tax policy. This feeling, howe
ever, gradually shifted to the ”Linear Plan“ whenit was
noted that: many towns did not possess suitable industrial
land, a large expenditure on new public facilities would be
required, and finally that many towns with suitable indus-
trial land would be penalized by sudh a policy.

The final vote of 24 of the 26 member towns in 1963,
showed that 19 favored the linear plan, 3 desired to remain
with the present zoning policies, and 2 preferred the
balanced plan. The linear plan was thus Chosen and is
presently being incorporated into a regional land use plan
that is under preparation.

e. Contributions to the planning profession were
made by this report since it conclusively showed the advant—
age of a well-thought-out and well-conducted public
education program combined with citizen participation in
the decision process can give an advisory planning agency
implementation powers it lacks under legal procedures.
Director Brown made the following statement in a paper

presented at the 1963 ASPD conference.l

 

lBrown, Op. c t., p. 35.

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1?“;ng 14

SUGGESTED CRITERIA

For Evaluating the REGIONAL and LOCAL Implications of

Use of Land

Housing

Transportation

Economics

General

Attainable

 

the ALTERNATIVE REGIONAL PLANS

Makes best use of land capabilities

Is compatible with existing land use

Reserves adequate open space

Provides open space near urban concentrations
Provides for clustering rather than sprawl

Offers choice in housing type

Offers choice in housing location

Satisfies housing needs of all segments of
population

Offers choice of mode of travel
Provides for short journey to work

Enhances Region's competitive position
Economically feasible
Makes best use of existing facilities

Provides opportunities for cultural develop-
ment and participation

Promotes regional attractiveness

Provides for visual variety

Permits retention of community identification

Under present system of local governments
Under present property tax system
Under present land use controls

"Preliminary Draft"
Published by the Capitol Region Planning Agency
May 29, 1965 - R. D. Brown

110

I think it is fair to say that if we had started
out to prepare just one recommended land use
plan, the staff would probably have come up with
something quite similar to the chosen linear
plan, so this lengthy review process probably did
not produce any great planning concepts. But
without the participation of the decision makers
in its preparation, I am sure that the regional
plan would never have received the endorsement of
so many towns.

3. A Plan for the Year 2000

a. Introduction: A Plan for the Year 2000 - the
Nation's Capital is a joint undertaking by the staffs of
the National Capital Regional Planning Commission. It is
primarily concerned with develOpment of the Washington,
District of Columbia, regional area, the city itself, and
the "metro-core“, however its influence goes beyond this
area into the greater region including parts of the state
of Virginia and blends with the Baltimore Regional Area in
the state of Maryland. The plan was published in 1961.

b. Planning Approach: The “Year 2000" Plan be-
came a classic example of a "policy plan“ immediately upon
its reception by the planning profession, since it embodies
all the features and advantages that a policy plan is
supposed to achieve (these features have been discussed
earlier in this section).

The report presents the following important factors
for the consideration of public officials and citizens.‘

1. A forward look at the prospective growth of the

region and its consequences.

2. A statement of goals to serve as a basis for

policies on regional develOpment.

Ill

3. An evaluation of alternative patterns of regional
growth, and a recommendation in favor of a pattern that
seems both to hold the greatest promise and to be possible
of achievement.

4. A set of recommended policies to guide govern-
mental decisions in the direction of a sound design of the
entire region and eadh of its parts. Separate policies are
proposed for the region, for the District of Columbia, and
for the all-important core where governmental and business
activities are heavily concentrated - Metro center.

5. A description of the next steps that should be
taken in deciding upon and carrying out policies for
regional development.

This report is, therefore, not a detailed plan for
the physical develOpment of the region, but rather a pre-
liminary framework of policies to guide the decision making
process in the preparation of a more comprehensive plan.

The regional spatial patterns discussed included the
following: Restricted Growth, Planned Sprawl, Dispersed
Cities, Ring of Cities, Peripheral Communities, and the
Radial Corridor Plan. The last alternative was the one
selected for the development of the region by the staff.

c. Purpose: The purpose of the plan was to outline
some fundamental decisions necessary in guiding the growth
of the region. These decisions were submitted in the form
of policy recommendations based on regional goals. These

decisions were designed to guide the governing body of eadh

112
county and city, the District of Columbia, the states of
Maryland and Virginia, the various Federal agencies, and
the varibus congressional committees.

A second purpose of the plan was to present a
framework that can help the design of more detailed plans.

Thirdly, the policies presented can serve as an
interim plan to guide develOpment decisions until final
agreement is reached on a development pattern of growth
and methods for its implementation.

d. Results: The plan received a welcomed boost
by a presidential memorandum from President Kennedy,
directing all new federal building locations to be made
according to the radial corridor policy as presented in the
plan.

The purpose of the plan to serve as a framework for
further detailed plans was also fulfilled through the.
decision of the National Capital Planning Commission among
others, to develop the District of Columbia Plan for 1985.

e. Contributions to the planning profession in-
cluded first and foremost an excellent professional guide
to the develOpment of a "new breed of plan“, a process of
openly arrived at decisions, and actions to shape the
growth of the region or any other area. This process was

later referred to as the “Policy Plan“.

40 On‘Wedges and Corridors (The Washington-Maryland Region)
a. Introduction: The Maryland-National Capitol

Park and Planning Commission accepted the year 2000 Plan

113
prepared by the National Capital Planning Commission and
the National Capital Regional Planning Council. This
wedges and Corridors plan represents a further detailed
outcome based on the framework presented by the Year 2000
Plan. The document was published in 1962.

b. Planning Approach: In contrast to the Year 2000
Plan the Wedges and Corridors plan was one step further in
the planning process, in other words, the wedges and
corridor plan chose a pattern and its concomitant policies
as they were prOposed in the Year 2000 Plan, and proceeded
to elaborate on the policies as they should be applied to
the actual region.

Thepian, however, went back in retrospect and dis-
cussed why the present design pattern was chosen by evalu-
ating the following alternative patterns: sprawl, average
density, satelite, and the corridor pattern. The advantage
of this type of procedure is that it enables the staff to
diagram the patterns with more detail than the schematic
level possible when the plan is discussing theoretical
alternatives, for the facilitation of the decision making
process.

Since this report was “a general plan" it prOposed
development recommendations putting the proposed policies
into effect. It was therefore obvious from the recommenda-
tions that policies regarding the control of open space
especially agricultural land, ranked high on the priority

level and required urgent action. It is not surprising

U -
LNG

tic

114
that the Spatial alternative chosen Optimized the preserva-
tion of cpen Space and controlled urban develOpment to
Specific areas or corridors.

c. Purpose: The purpose of the report was the
establishment of overall policies for the development of the
Regional District in relation to the metropolitan framework
discussed in the Year 2000 Plan. It also served to update
and strengthen the previously published general plan WhiCh
covered only 294 out of the 900 square mile area under the
jurisdiction of the.Maryland—National Capital Park and
Planning Commission.

d. Results: The plan was rejected by the Maryland-
National Capital Park and Planning Commission upon its sub-
mital in 1962. The staff has since then modified some
parts of the plan thus satisfying the demands of the com-
mission.

e. Contributions to the Planning Process: The staff
in this case undertook the taSk of the preparation of the
policies and made all the required decisions without the
involvement of the commission members or any other influen-
tial group. The preceding comment might be precisely the
reason for the plan's rejection and failure. This then
might be moral lesson to planners to utilize the involve-
ment of the decision makers and the public wherever it is
feasible to do so without endangering the process through
the addition of an unwieldly element.

The plan also offered another major, although

elementary at this point, contribution. The staff attempted

115
to relate the goals to the form alternatives proposed.
This was done simply by stating the goals in one column
and by scoring with: a plus (+), a minus (-), or a zero
(0), howvell the specific alternative achieves that goal.
This Chart is illustrated in figure 6. Although this
attempt was not meant to compare the alternatives, but
rather to justify the selection of the previously selected
pattern, it set the precedent for future plans to utilize
this method to greater depth.

5. The Twin Cities Program

a. Introduction: The Twin Cities Metropolitan
Planning Commission was created in 1957 by the State of
Minnesota to serve the adjoining cities of St. Paul and
Minneapolis. The comparatively new agency has not yet
formulated a plan for the region, but has conducted and
published numerous highly professional reports dealing
with the problems of growth and the formulation of alter-
native patterns for the region. Most of the papers
reviewed were dated in 1963.

b. Planning Approach: The Twin Cities “Joint
Program" staff is organizationally divided into specialized
“teams“ or sections. The problem of deciding on how to
best develOp a set of policies to guide growth in the
region through the formulation and choice of a spatial
pattern was undertaken by three separate teams taking three
separate tasks. The first, using "values“ as a basis of

formulating goals which in turn would lead to policies and

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117
alternative patterns. The second, derived the patterns of
develOpment through the use of present issues and trends
as a base for future policy proposals. Conversely, the
third team chose a design approach of visualizing the ideal
patterns as they would apply to the actual region, from
this point the design team would develOp goals and policies
for the region. The objective of the three-pronged
approach was the final synthesis of a more comprehensive
and objective way to arrive at a decision of the best pos-
sible method to use in guiding the develOpment of the
region. Each of the above methods was published separately
in the form of a "paper" and was oriented to be used pri-
marily by the staff.

c. Purpose: The purpose of the multi-solution
approach taken by the staff of the ”Joint Program“ of the
Twin Cities MetrOpolitan Planning Commission, was to in-
vestigate and utilize the best possible methods and tech-
niques in the development of a plan for the Metropolitn
area.

d. Results: The program has not to date accomplished
the preparation of a plan or any part of the plan. The
various papers have been highly useful as educational
tools and have etablished an enviable reputation for both
the staff and the Planning Commission. This writer can,
however, hypothesize that a well-informed Commission and
"public“ can only create a favorable milieu in which good

planning can take place. This “planning“ was hOpefully

118
provided by the individual planning agencies comprising
the metrOpolis.

c. Contribution to Planning: The Joint Program has
had its highest achievement as a source of intellectual,
thought-provoking, innovative concepts, theories and ideas.
Some of these contributions, as they relate to alternative
policy formulation, include the'following:

1. Design Contributions

a. Relating the elements of growth to each other
graphically in order to show the various combinations for
the various alternatives.

b. Devising a new technique portraying sudh
elements as: Intensity (develOpment and interaction con-
centrations), linkages (communications), intensity of link—
ages, flow systems, and volume of flow.

c. Evaluating various sketch alternatives in
terms of basic policies required to make them possible.

2. Comparative studies.

a. A comparison of 14 cities - the selection
including cities from all over the world. These cities
were compared in terms of setting, history, planning
history, and present planning.

b. A series of charts portraying population
growth of each city and its metropolis over a period of
time.

c. A comparison of densities in the central

area, urbanized area, and the urban fringe.

119
3. The use of “values" in the planning process.

a. The values are discussed under three head-
ings: PhiloSOphical (basic human) values, societal
(Socialogical) values, and Environmental values.

b. These values are related to the generation of
alternative policies and consequent patterns through their

incorporation into a decision making framework.

6. Alternative Patterns of DeveloEment (Puget Sound)

a. Introduction: This report is a preliminary
draft published by the Puget Sound Regional Transportation

1*

Study, in January 1964. It is also titled "Staff Report
#5“. The two planners responsible for the work are:
Rajanikant Joshi and Fred Utevsky.

The study is a joint effort of the WaShington State
Highway Commission and the Puget Sound Governmental
Conference in cooperation with the various Federal agencies.

b. Planning Approach: The Puget Sound study is
utilizing two approaches:

1) Future develOpment is projected through the
study of past land development trends and the use of a
land use distribution model. The resulting projection of
future development can then serve as a basis for determining
future travel needs and consequently a transportation system.
2) Alternative spatial patterns for the region
are formulated as a basis of choosing the most desirable

pattern for the region. These patterns are evaluated in

teams of develOpment policies and costs required to

120
achieve this desirable pattern.

Both approaChes compliment each other since the
first does not consider the impact of various decisions
while the second does not consider the existing issues as
they are manifested in the region.

The two approaches are used to produce two separate
plans, “Plan A“ and “Plan B". Plan A will represent the
projection of the present trends using the existing net-
work of highways as the basis of the Spatial pattern of
1985.

Plan B, on the other hand, would reflect a desirable
pattern of land use arrangements arrived at through the
agreement of the decision makers on a course of action
after thoroughly reviewing the various alternatives and
their concomitant policies.

Elements of Both Plan A and B would be consolidated
for the purpose of planning possible future tranSportation
facilities and a more Specific integrated plan for land
use and transportation.

c. Purpose: The purpose of the publication is to
prepare the way toward the fonmulation of a tranSportation
plan as part of a general development plan for the region.
The best system of transportation for the region is linked
to the best selected land use plan. It is for this pur-
pose that the alternative land use patterns are studied.

d. Results: The transportation and Land Use Program

across the U.S. is in its comparative infancy since 1962.

121
Federal Highway Act (discussed in the first chapter of this
paper). The results are, therefore unknown to date.

e. Contributions to Planning: The Puget Sound
Regional TranSportation study staff is quickly acquiring a
reputation in the planning profession comparable to that
of the Twin Cities Joint Program discussed in the previous
section. The Puget Sound staff, however, differs in its
more tedhnical orientation. This is only reasonable Since
tranSportation studies in general have been technically
oriented ventures.

Some of the Significant contributions brought out in
this report include.

1) A new'method of mapping was utilized. The process
is called the “data plotter method". The data plotter is
an automatic device for drafting symbols, lines, etc. from
computer-prepared instructions using a grid coordinate
system. The unit (of Space) of such a system consists Of
a quarter of a square mile. Each quarter square mile
represents the predominant use of that area and is punched
on a computer card.

To prepare the alternative map, the planner allo-
cates the projected number Of square miles allotted to that
use and this is transferred just to cards, then to magnetic
tape and finally to the actual drafting machine for the
plotting Operation.

2) The staff evolved an evaluation process for the

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fialternative patterns. This process consisted of a rating

122
form and the use of weights and scores applied to every
alternative and based on the evaluation criteria which con—
sisted of the following sub-grouping:
I Desirability Criteria
A. Open Space Goals
B. Efficiency and Accessibility Goals
II Feasibility Criteria
A. Legislation and Government Structure
B. Costs of Governmental Services
The weights were distributed first among the major criteria
listed above and these in turn were distributed among the
sub-criteria. The next step consisted of first scoring
each alternative pattern and then weighting that score
through multiplying that score by the weight assigned to
the sub criteria. The total sum of weighted points can

then be used to rank the various alternatives. This pro-

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Evaluation, Critigge. and Conslusion

The review of the plans, publications and documents
presented in the previous section Show that although alter-
native Spatial patterns were consistently used as a
decision-making device for projecting future develOpment and
growth, they also served other purposes as well. These
purposes are:

1. An alternative pattern study can serve as an
exploratory work. It can research hypothetical situations

in order to maximize certain criteria the planner wants to

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124
researdh. This research in turn can be of technical or
descriptive nature.

2. The use of alternative patterns can also
demonstrate the issues involved and thus lead to a better
understanding of the situation. This use has possibilities
of serving as a stimulus for thinking and discussion and
consequently as an educational tool.

3. Finally, the process of utilizing alternative
patterns can assist in the presentation of the final
develOpment plan, or in some cases, an interim plan.

The publications presented in this chapter were
deliberately chosen to reflect one or more of the above
uses and thus amplify as well as clarify our understanding
and knowledge of the subject. For review purposes the
publications will be listed below with a number (or numbers)

denoting the place it occupies in the sequence presented

above.
1 - Erie, Planning Concept Reports (2)
2 - Regional Plan Alternatives (Hartford) (1) (2)
3 — Year 2000 Plan (Washington, D.C.) (2) (3)
4 - On Wedges and Corridors (Maryland) ;(3)
5 - Twin City Reports (1) (2)
6 - Alternative Patterns of Develogment

(Puget Sound) (1) (2)
The reports discussed have, by no means, covered
the entire subject of alternative spatial planning. There
were numerous gaps and flaws that require further travail.

Some of these gaps and deficiencies will be discussed at

125
this time.

1. In order to present the decision maker with
alternative possibilities of develOpment in the future, the
planner has to also present an accompanying set of con-
sequences clearly researched and Spelled out in detail so
that the decision maker can weight the comparative advant-
ages and disadvanages. This is a very complex process
that has, so far, eluded the planner. The various reports

have, however, attempted to do this, e.g. The Year 2000

Plan, the Regional Plan Alternatives, the Wedges and
Corridor Plan, and the Puget Sound Study's Alternative

Patterns of Development. The latter is by far the best
attempt of the four studies mentioned since it develOps

an intricate evaluation criteria using performance
criteria such as cost in the appraisal of the various
alternatives. The fact that the Puget Sound effort is
the newest attempt in the use of alternative patterns is
encouraging since it shows that the pioneering efforts of
the first two plans mentioned above have been learned and
improved upon first by a sketchy evaluation table by the
Wedges and Corridor Plan (presented in figure 6), and
finally a sophisticated attempt already described, by the
last entry on the list. It is pertinent to point out, in
spite of all the praise, that this too, is far from an
acceptable evaluationo The Puget Sound evaluation criteria
first distributes weighted scores\arbitrarily amongst its

major criteria, 20, 30, 20, and 30 points respectively

126
(refer to figure 7) and then proceeds to break this sum
amongst its reSpective sub-criteria in the sane arbitrarym
unobjective faShion. The writer would like to stress that,

w"‘-—Ir‘-r~ A.

through his own experience with a similar work conducted

 

for the Detroit Region, he has found it practically im-

possible to be purely and mathematically objective in

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“scoring the various alternatives.

2. Most of the examples reviewed in this chapter
have dealt with mappable alternative spatial patterns.
This is indicative of the planner's persistent interest
with a map. This should not be construed to imply that
maps should be minimized in the planning process. Until a
better medium of presentation and explanation is produced
the planner has to depend heavily on a map. ‘He does not,
however, have to rely solely on it. Policies can and
should be discussed and evaluated verbally and analytically
whenever possible. The analytical aSpect can utilize
such tools as statistics, mathematics, and diagrams of
involved complex processeso

works illustrating such teChniques are still in the
minority but show great promise for the future. The Erie,
Concept Plans, the Twin Cities Reports, and the Puget
Sound Study, incorporate elements of the new techniques.
The Erie work is an operational use of the “input—output"
economic concept that shows promise of becoming an
important decision factor in regional and local interactions

and decision making. The Twin Cities efforts are more

127
conceptual in nature, the notable feature is their consider-
ation of human values as part of the decision process.
Finally, the Puget Sound Study utilizes statistical as well
as graphic methods to discuss future development patterns.
All the above criterion with the addition of modeling tech-
niques will be further discussed in the following chapter of
this paper.

3. The most important lesson learned from the
review of the various studies discussed is the great
importance of the involvement of the decision maker in the
preparation or the evaluation of policies. All the works
discussed presented some aspect of policy planning, and all
made a decision or Choice as to the best alternative to
adopt, the crucial question at this point is how did they
make that decision?

The Year 2000 Plan was completely develOped by the
staff. They formulated the goals for the region, devised
the policies, generated the alternative spatial patterns
and even made the decision on which alternative the region
Should follow without any involvement by its respective
“collaborating" planning commissions.

The plan would have failed except for the good for-
tune of obtaining the strong endorsement of two influences,
the President of the United States, and the Council of
MetrOpolitan Government. The President, through a
presidential memorandum, directed all new federal construc-

tion to locate according to the ”radial corridor" policy

128
presented in the plan. The Council is influential in
educating the citizency toward acceptance of the policies
recommended.

A similar plan, 0n Wedges and Corridors, was also
fully develOped by the staff and presented to the Maryland
National Park and Planning Commission. The Commission in
this instance, under strong pressure by groups against the
plan, rejected the original prOposal and requested the
staff to make lengthy revisions.

A good example of the opposite extreme, the full
utilization of a hierarchy of community involvement from
the Regional decision maker to the general public, is the
Capitol Region (Hartford) Planning Agency's program. As it
was eXplained earlier in this section the program presented
in Regional Plan Alternatives stimulated public approval of
the Commission and endorsement of a plan for the region.

Another successful example discussed earlier is the
Twin Cities Joint Prggram which publishes a monthly publica=
tion entitled the Newsletter. This publication presents
the public with challenging, thought provoking and
educational planning ideas and concepts, along with
planning news about various undertakings by the agency.
This publication, along with its other similarly excellent
"papers" have earned the Commission the respect and accept-
ance of the decision makers, the public, and professional
planners.

4. “There is a distinct shift in attitude in regards

to the usage of alternatives in the planning profession.

129
First, the alternatives were visualized as being complete
plans where the choice of one alternative is tantamount to
accepting a plan for the region. Using the framework
presented in chapter one, the alternatives are considered
as "strategies". This attitude is reflected to a minor
extent in the Erie Plans reviewed.

With the acceptance of the "policy plan“ the attitude
regarding alternatives shifted to visualizing them as a set
“of policies based on "goals“ and "objectives“ for the com-
munity. The alternative chosen by the decision makers

Maw“

\would then become the basis of a plan for the region.

Referring back to the framework presented in chapter one,
this process would be described as choosing “outcomes”.
This process is certainly more conducive to better planning.
This approach is illustrated by the Year 2000 Plan reviewed.
Finally, the policy approach is still lacking. It
considers the outcomes separately from the controllable
and uncontrollable variables. The decision approach
presented in this paper would suggest the consideration of
all the variables and thus eliminate the constraints of
already conceived notions and images that are characteris—
tic of preconceived patterns. This approach would serve
the "goals“ more efficiently through the facilitation of
objective, rational decisions regarding the “set of out-

comes" that the decision makers desire to achieve.

CHAPTER V

MODELS AND OPERATIONS RESEARCH TECHNIQUES

This paper started with the introduction of a new
approach to alternative generation, the decision matrix
and its concomitant criteria for decisions. The subsequent
chapters included applications relating to the framework
such as problems, issues and policies discussed in chapter
two and spatial patterns created in reSponse to historical
problems and their counterparts in modern usage in chapter
three. Finally, the recent usage of alternative spatial
patterns by the urban planning profession was discussed
and evaluated in chapter four. In the process we formed
many discrepancies between current efforts and the suggested
new approach.

In this chapter we shall prOpose a further illumina»
tion eSpecially in techniques that have proven their use-
fulness in planning as well as other disciplines. These
techniques are usually grouped under the general term of
"Operations Research" which will be discussed further in
this chapter. The usefulness of these techniques to the
various professions and disciplines and thus their poss-
ibilities as a "bridge of understanding" were discussed by

Branch and diagrammed as figure 17.

130

131
These techniques will specifically be relaed to the
decision framework introduced earlier, to the generation
of alternatives, and to the planning process in general.
In order to refresh our memory, the decision frame-
work will be summarized in the following section and thus
can serve as an ”anchor" to tie the earlier sections to-

gether.
The Decision Framework

The framework and its components were discussed in
chapter one. This section will, therefore, assume that all
the terms to be used are already familiar and will not re-
quire further definition.

The usefulness of the decision framework is, of
course, as a guide in making decisions, usually to achieve
a desired objective. The decision maker has to select
"strategy“ from a number of alternatives that are Open to
him. When this strategy is considered in view of the
"state of nature“ that will exist in the future an "out-
come“ occurs. This outcome can then be a guide towards
his selection of a strategy and thus the basis for further
action (Figure 18).

The above description is a simplification of the
detailed framework, which will be used as a starting point
towards further complicated techniques applicable to the
generation of alternative patterns. At this point we need

to start applying the framework proposed to the question

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134
at hand, namely, alternative decisions regarding the
generation, choice, and testing of alternative Spatial
patterns.

The Spatial patterns described in Chapter three and
four, are assumed urban formso They are structural (basic
design) outcomes resulting from assumed strategies and
assumed states of natureo These forms were supposed to be
based on goals or objectiveso These goals and objectives
are not, however, related to the structural outcomes,
(patterns) since they are not related to the design criteria
which form the basis of the desired pattern° Sometimes,
the strategies and the outcomes were reversed where the
outcomes (patterns) were considered plans and the strategies
(plans) were considered as goals to be adhievedo

The present framework will consider the strategies
as plans based on various sets of controllable policies
such as various forms of tranSportation, sewer extension
policies, annexation policies and possibly a taxation policyo
The states of nature, on the other hand will be based on
important yet uncontrollable elements that affect the
plans (uncontrollable variables) such as population,
economy, political situation, and world situationo
Finally, the outcomes will be the results of projecting the
strategies through the states of natures thus obtaining
various consequences. This process can be acoompflished
more efficiently by using a “growth model“o In the last

step described above the outcomes are evaluated against

135
certain criteria WhiCh has been derived from the functional
goals and objectiveso The criteria to date, have been
limited to such goals as economy, efficiency, and safety.
However, with more SOphistication in the use of models, we
can obtain much more complex relationships such as function-

a1 land use activitieso

Models

A model is a replica of an object or a situations
This definition can be applicable to all types of models
whether they consist of a scale model of a building or a
city, a symbolic model of that city on a map, or a mathe-
matical model translating the symbols into mathematical
variables and incorporating them into complex equations
that also reflect the objects and actions contained in that
city. A model, therefore, as the illustration of the city
demonstrates, is an abstracted reflection of a real life
situationo A model can even be narrowed down in definition
to just the word "abstraction“. As an "abstraction"
planners have always used "models" without Specifically
using that termo

Since we have defined models, the next issue consists
of the question, "why use a model?“ The answer to that
question is simply "it is easier to work with and can pro—
vide pragmatically better answers," This can be illus-
trated by the following exampleo In order to prepare land

use and transportation plans the planner has to amass

136
large amounts of data relating to population and its distri-
bution, economic factors and employment statistics, travel
habits and movement desires, as well as social and cultural
factors effecting behavioro The analysis of the afore-
mentioned data can get cumbersome and overpowering. A
model can:

(1) utilize the data in the form of mathematical

equations, expressing all the above factors:

(2) analyze all relevant and significant inter-

actions:

(3) forecast a travel or land use pattern depending

on the data utilized.

The model in the above illustration can be designed
to forecast various situations whidh in turn can be tested
fora satisfactory or optimum solutiono

It should be clear from the above that models can
be very useful devices in facilitating the work of the
planner as well as increasing the precision of the planning
process. It is also inferred by the last example that
there are a number of different tasks involved in model
building that should be understood and manipulated by the
planner for ultimate success in achieving the objective he
is seeking. The model can be a device thatcan test the
various prOposals he is considering and signal him if they
exceed the bounds of theoretical realityo

The planner will have to realize that the model has

to be built with data existing and reflecting its environmento

137

Only through the use of actual data can the model become a
useful tool for forecasting the future, for assessing the
effect of some given action, for integrating diverse
factors that otherwise might be utilized, and finally for
use as a testing deviceo The relation between the hypo-
thetical or symbolic world and the real world is diagrammed
in figure 19A. This sequence is however, only a part of a
chain process that is further illustrated in figure 193.1

Each successive model is a refinement of the previous
models. The first part of the sequence might not yield the
desired information, thus the subsequent new data will be
vital in correcting the situationo New situations also
develOp over a period of time, thus necessitating further
testing and evaluation. Another reason for future con-
tinuation of the chain as it is illustrated in figure 19B,
is the introduction of more sophisticated data measurement
tools through improved tedhnologyo

To summarize this discussion of the model building
process, an actual example is illustrated in figure lBCO
The model in this case is a probability model but it can
very well take the form of any of the models which will be

described in the following subsections (Figure 19C).

Model Classification:

The classification scheme adOpted for this subsection

 

lIrwin Brossa Design for Decision, McMillan Coo,
New York 19530

138

has been prOposed by Forrester2 who uses the following
classification: (1) physical or abstract, (2) static or
dynamic, (3) linear or nonlinear, (4) stable or unstble,
(5) steady state or transient, and (6) Open or closed.
These will each be briefly described belowo

(1) Physical or abstract models: Physical models
are actual objects that are sealed replicas of other
objects whie abstract models are made up of symbols rather
than objects. The symbolism can be in the form of a
written language, an idea, or mathematical notations.

(2) Static or dynamic models: A static model des-
cribes a situation that does not vary with time while a
dynamic model stresses the time variation factor.

(3) Linear or nonlinear: A linear model represents
a static system that performs exactly according to design
regardless of new inputs and/or changes in variables. The
total result of such a model is exactly the sum of the
separate components of system reSponse. This type of model
can be useful in the physical sciences, it is however,
grossly inadequate for representing sociological processes.
The nonlinear model is usually made up of many submodels
that can reflect the behavior of all new inputs. This can
be accomplished with the same simulation methods used on

the linear system.

 

2Jay W. Forrester. Industrial;pynamics, John Wiley
& Sons, N.Y. 1961, Chapter 4.

159

FIGURE 19

THE "MODEL" BUILDING PROCESS

Figure 19A:

 

Symbolic World

 

 

 

 

3| Evaluationl

T

 

SYmbolic Symbolic , ,
Model P4Manipulation Prediction
¢l _____JL____.
Real World Ori inal Determination
Dita 0f TEST
Parameters DATA

 

 

 

 

Figure 19B:

Symbolic World

 

 

 

 

 

Model 1 3 l:)l Model 2

Evaluation

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Model 5

 

 

 

 

 

 

Data Few Dat a '3

 

 

 

Real World

Figure 19C:

 

Symbolid World

 

Evaluation J!
lNew DataLLF

 

 

 

 

 

Probabi
Model

litfi Manipulation HPr edict ion

 

IL

 

of Probabilities -

 

Real World_

.priginal
Data

 

 

Diagrams adapted from Irwin

 

 

ESTIMATION OF
Numerical Values
of Probabilities

 

EVALUATIoN

 

 

TEST
DATA,

 

 

 

Bross, Design for Decision.

140

(4) Stable or unstable: This classification refers
to the system being modeled as well as the model itself.
The stable system will remain in its original state or will
return to its initial state after being disturbed by an
outside source or condition. The unstable system will keep
oscillating until, and if, another restraining force is
exerted. The latter type is exemplified by the present
economic system in the United States.

(5) Steady-State or transient: A steady state model
refers to a system whose behavior over time is repetitive.
In other words an occurrence will repeat itself in exactly
the same manner after a certain lapse of time. This state
is also similar to the undulations of the national economic
system. The transient state is a reflection of constant
change. This state is characteristic of any system whiCh
reflects growth or decline.

(6) Open or Closed: This classification again is
determined by the system being modeled. The closed system
is wholly independent in its functioning from any outside
variables. The variables within the closed system maintain
themselves through constant interaction. An example of
such a system is an ”informationmfeedback“ system. The
open system, on the other hand, is dependent on inputs
supplied from outside the system prOper.

In order to illustrate the classification system
presented above as well as to bring out the various combina~

tions possible by combining categories, a model classification

141
figure follows (figure 20). As a summary to this section
the following points should be noted: (1) There exists a
strong interdependency between the systems approaCh (disn
cussed earlier in Chapter One) and the model building tech-
niques being presented in this section. This fact is
evident from the descriptive terminology used in the
classification scheme just presented where the terms
"system”, ”components", "variables“, “inputs" and so on
were necessary to clarify the technique being described.
(2) The "steadyestate" models typify the behavior of corp~
orate and economic systems and to a certain extent the
community system as well. (3) The “abstract" models
generally referred to as “mathematical models” are parti-
cularly pertinent in this general discussion of model and
thus will require further elaboration in the next sub-

section.

Mathematical Models:

This section will deal strictly with the various
type of mathematical models and will discuss the theory
and applications of each. All of these models are based on
sets of assumptions concerning the behavior of variables.
The assumptions are supplemented by constraints which
limit that behavior. Constants are usually introduced to
serve as substitutes for unknown variables or to adjust the
dimensions of the equations. The mathematical modelsto be
discussed have been very useful in the following areas of

urban planning: (1) in traffic generation, (2) in analyzing

142

and projecting interzonal movement, (3) in projecting land

use patterns in urban areas.

There are three general types of mathematical models°3

The types are:

10 Deterministic models

20 Stochastic models, and

3. Optimal models

Each of these models in turn can be either analytic
or numerical, except for the Optimal models whidh can be
either “Plain Optimal" or "Twin-goals Oriented Optimalo"

The above information is illustrated by figure 21.

l. The DeterministicmAnalytical models include simple and
multiple correlation analysis and usually include one
dependent variable and one or more independent vari-
ableso By using predetermined constants definite
values are obtained for the dependent variable. These
models constitute the bulk of the traffic generation
models4 derived from multiple correlation analysis and
some land use modelso The basis for these models is a
definite knowledge of past trends and the projection of
those trends into the futureo Thus, these models can

be both descriptive and projectiveo

 

3The description of the mathematical models is based
on a very thorough discussion by Anthony Tomazinis in
"paper #8“ for the PennmJersey TranSportation Studyo

4This type of model is commonly referred to as a
"gravity model" because of the premise that all trips
emanating from one area are attracted or pulled to another
area.

145

FIGURE 20

A CLASSIFICATION SYSTEM OF MODELS

/Models\
Abstract Physical
Dynamic Static Dynamic Static
Nonlinear Line§i\\f::i::iar Linear
Unstable Stable Stable Stable

\./\/// /
Steady Transient Steady Steady
State State State

Adapted from: Forrester, gndustrial Dynamics, p. 49.

 

144

2. Deterministic-Numerical models express relationships
between variables, and can accomplish this through
graphical rather than mathematical methods. This model
is most useful when the behavior of the variables is
not well known. It is therefore used in plotting
hourly distribution of traffic, or the relationship
between distances to the C.B.Do and the density of
develOpment. An example of this model is the Chicago
Area Traffic Study land use model.
Both Deterministic models described above have
limited predictive ability and are most-useful in tracing
historical data. The major limitation is their inability
to combine relationships involving more than two variables.
3. Stochastic-Analytical models incorporate a non-linear
relationship and a degree of probability of the occur-
rence of events. The frequency of occurrence of the
Specific event is given in relation to the numbers of
attempts. In other words, the model can predict the
frequency of events that will occur in a given area in a
specific time interval. These models require a knows
ledge of the events being studied as well as the
behavior of all the variables which make up the model.
Stochastic models are used by tranSportation studies
for trip distribution and traffic flow behavior at
certain critical points.

4. Stochastic-Numerical models represent a stochastic pro»

cess in a numerical presentation. Thus, like the

145

FIGURE 21

A CLASSTFICATION or
MATHEN TIcz-i MODELS

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TYPE OF sonar. ‘ - KIND OF MODEL FORMATION
. _ >4 3 a. + b. X.
Analytical
- y, -.-. cu b,x,+b,},o~+bhrh
Deterministic
d
12
. I
Numerical >" w
_ ca-
0
3
Analytical
Stochastic ' ll__
0J0 . , . '
Numerical ' "
Plain-Optimal
. ‘ J .
Optinal A...“
. 1 X1
NI‘R‘QPI;
Twin-Goal Oriented . “‘9":ij
' Optimal '
2%.“; Clfi|
pa. user

 

Table reproduced from the Penn-Jersey Transportation Study, Pa er 8

by Anthony Tomazinis.

146
deterministic numerical models, it can be presented in a
graphic form and is of most value in solving for the value
of an integral having more than two variables. The use of
this model like the stodhastic analytic model is useful in
the simulation of urban traffic.
Plain—Optimal Models (commonly referred to as ”Linear
Programming") show how a linear function of several variables
affected by certain constraints is maximized or minimized
depending on the objectives of the problem. For example,
if we have two products produced by the same industry re-
quiring three resources and we wanted to allocate these
resources to eadh product, we find that each will require a
different combination of resource (it will have a different
transformation curve). However, if we were to set a
maximum return goal for eadh resource we can determine the
best combination of any two resources and eventually readh
the most efficient combination. The "plain Optimal"
model has three main characteristics. They are:

1. It establishes a system of simultaneous equations
that are affected by a certain number of con-
straints, which will consist of a set of
variables and a set of technical coefficients
of inputs.

2. The model will require a definite universe
and a quantified function to be maximized (or

minimized).

147

3. The model will select a combination based on
relative ratios of variables (constraints).
The weakness of this model, in its adaptation
to urban planning, is the inability to provide
clear cut objective functions, input co—
efficients as well as sets of variables and
constraints. ’

6. Twin~Goa1-Oriented optimal Model (sometimes referred to
as non-linear programming) considers two alternative
goals to be weighted simultaneously While trying to
maximize or minimize the various functions presented by
the problem. While the “plain optimal“ method has an
implicit choice of processes the "twin-goal oriented
Optimal" method does not. This method is mudh more
sensitive to the various non-quantifiable variables
that are peculiar to the urban process and, once the
mathematical complexities are mastered, can be of great
value as both an information and a problem solving tool.

In summary it is relevant to point out that the
methods presented and discussed cover a wide range of models
based on a mathematical translation of the existing vari-
ables. The methods although used as part of various pro-
posed models applicable to planning are applicable to
mathematical models in general. The next section will
therefore focus our attention more Specifically on

"Planning" models.

148
Growth Models:

"Growth model" is a term that has been applied to a
variety of models that have primarily dealt with the
phenomenon of city or regional growth. These have mainly
been the by-products of “land use and tranSportation
studies." The pioneering efforts by sudh projects as the
Chicago Area tranSportation study, the Penn-Jersey TranSport-
ation Study, and more recently by the Baltimore Land Use
Study and the Boston Regional Planning Project, are worth
examining for further applications in planning. These
models will, therefore, be discussed in this subsection.5

1) The Chicago Area Transportation Study: This
study utilized a "deterministic—numerical“ model based on
pmojecting past trends graphically into the future. The
data used is of a "time series" variety, which means that
it is gathered at equal intervals. The advantage of such a
model is its simplicity. The disadvantage, however, lies
in the fact that the data has to be available over a long
period of time. Some of the features of this model include:
(1) A first attempt at relating accessibility to land uses
such as residential and manufacturing activities, and some

very useful information regarding the location of the CBD

were found.

 

5This subsection relied heavily on a report by Keith

Crane, Community Systems Foundation, for the Regional Plan-
ning Commission (Lansing, Midhigan), ”Models for Predicting
Employment, Population and Land Use," Lansing, Midhigan,
1964.

149

2) The Penanersey TranSportation Study: The Penny
Jersey Study was the first Operation to actually venture in-
to the use of nongraphic models. The model adopted was
called an “Optimization model", it correSponds to the
"plain-optimal" model discussed in the previous subsection.
Although the model has not yet become operational, it set
the stage for the use of a potentially powerful tool.
The advantage of such amodel is its ability to predict
outcomes such as the distribution of household types,
once the household types have been forecast. The dis-
advantages of this type of model, however, are its heavy
reliance on theory, and its limitation of Spatial coverage
(it can cover only part of an area at one time). The model
in summary is of the linear variety discussed in the
classification subsection and thus is limited in the
objective that it can achieve at one time.

3) The Baltimore Land Use Study: The Baltimore
Study chose to use still another type of mathematical
model, a regression model which is comparable to the
“deterministic-analytical" model previously described. It
is based on the estimation of one dependent variable from
one or more related independent variables. The equations
reflecting the variables are nonlinear in nature and can
be solved by a “heuristic" approach (trial and error)
through the use of a high Speed computer. The advantage
of such an approach is its ability to show whiCh independ-

ent variable has the most effect on the dependent variable.

150
Another important advantage is the comparative simplicity
of the model to construct and operate. The disadvantage of
such a model is its need for a large collection of data for
each one of the variables.

4) The Boston Regional Planning Project: The Boston
project used a variation of the regression model described
above, a "deterministic-analytical", simultaneous equation
model. Unlike the previous model where eaCh two variables
(and equations) would be solved in relation to eadh other,
this model is structured in such a way so that each unknown
variable has an equation. The equations are then solved
simultaneously for the differential values of all unknowns.
The advantage of such a model is its ability to Operate in
a closed system unlike the regression model. The disadvant-
age of this model is its complexity of construction.

In summary this subsection provided actual examples
of models classified and discussed in abstract form in
this overall model discussion. We are not in any position
to choose the ”best“ or “worst“. model applicable to
planning procedures since this subsection has shown that
there are advantages and disadvantages connected with all
the models presented. The final decision will, therefore,
depend on the existing variables, the complexity of the
problem, the amount of data already available, the time
required for a solution, and finally the most important

fact of resources available to undertake the project.

151

Advantages and Disadvantages of Models:

The previous subsections have dwelt mostly on the
definitions and tedhniques of particular models. As a
summary to this section on models we need to look at the
general picture again and evaluate the past discussion in
terms of the usefulness of the general concept. First, the
advantages:

1. The model provides a frame of reference for
considering the various local, metrOpolitan,
and regional planning problems.

2. Through the assembly of data and preliminary
testing, informational gaps become apparent,
thus suggesting further required actions.

3. The model accomplishes an explanatory function
for the decisionumaker by its ability to
simplify complex problems through the abstract
techniques involved.

4. The symbolic language used in models serves
the dual purpose of facilitating the manipula-
tion of the variables involved, and of possess-

ing superior communication qualities.

Some of the disadvantages are:
l. The mathematical requirements might require
gross over-simplifications.
2. The symbolic language required might be a
hindrance in obtaining quick comprehension and

thus hinder results.

152
3. Acceptance and dependence solely on models
might lose sight of the “real world".
4. It is possible to obtain contradictory

results from various models.

It is important to point out, in view of the above
disadvantages, that the judicious balancing of data
collection, model building and testing (as was illustrated
in the above diagram) can minimize and even eliminate most
of the drawbacks, and thus maximize the advantages of the

process.
Operations Research Techniques

Operations research is an approach that deals with
"Operations“ or “behavior“ of systems and thus an approach
towards problem solving. It is basically an approach
based on the intensive usage of all possible fields that
can be helpful in clarifying the problem to the point
where a clear and accurate decision can be made. These
techniques can be utilized to great advantage in the plan-
ning process. It is for this purpose that some of the
techniques developed and used by the operations research
analyst are discussed in this section. These techniques
will include: Sampling tedhniques, Operational simulation,

Programming, Queuing Theory, and Inventory.

Sampling Tedhniques: The sampling procedure as part of

statistics is not new. However, as part of Operations

153
research, it has been develOped and applied to practical
situations. As a result of some of the work already done,
we have knowledge on: (1) the selection requirements of a
sample from the total runs: (2) the size of sample required;
and (3) the relationship between the sample and the whole
problem. The analyst should maximize the use Of the least
amount of data through the sample by reducing the error to

minimum and thus, incidentally, saving costs in the process.

Operational Simulation: This method consists of a combina—
tion of probability techniques and sampling methods. It is
used in complex situations where it is impossible to set up
analytical expressions which can yield immediate answers.
This technique will simulate the Operation systematically,
thus facilitating the study of the major factors and their
interaction.

Some of the advantages resulting from this method
are that it: (1) systemizes complicated operations:
(2) uses simplified Operations that are comprehendable by
individuals without technical background; (3) yields an
idea of the magnitude Of the answer: and (4) can statistically
test the sensitivity of the result in relation to the
factors involved. The latter point is important in elimina~

tiOn of irrelevant data which does not affect the outcome.

Programming: Recently, Operation research has been
develOping numerous programming techniques, the most pOpular
of which is the PERT (program evaluation and review technique)

approach. Briefly, this approach: (1) Can provide a

154
uniform and logical way in expressing a Specific program:
(2) Specifies the methodology to be followed in carrying
out that program and thus a way to check on the progress
Of that program: (3) provides a desirable flexibility to
update the program while it is in actual Operation; and
(4) finally, becomes a tool in evaluating the impact of
variation from a specific plan, and can be used as a pre-
diction device in anticipating major problem areas and
providing a way for their solution.

The methodology used in carrying out the PERT
approach is referred to as "critical path“ or a "Network
diagram" which is basically an advanced concept of a
flow chart showing steps required to reach an Objective.
This network has three basic components: (1) events:

(2) activities: and (3) relationships.

In addition to Specifying the activities and relat-
ing them to eadh other, the PERT method provides a system
of evaluating the time, cost and resource allocation
necessary to carry out each activity and therefore the
whole program. The longest path between all the events
from the start of the program to its completion is the
"critical path“. The length of the path chosen for final
implementation Of the plan will depend on the values that
are tied into the program.

The usefulness of the PERT approach in planning is
very extensive. The following are some of the planning

advantages possible: (1) PERT can be an inventory tool -

155
by listing all the processes and activities required to
adhieve a certain objective, the planner can realize whether
the information he has on hand is adequate: (2) PERT can be
a guide in planning or scheduling the work: (3) PERT can
assess different alternatives possible in achieving the plan:
(4) PERT can be an information tool in communicating ideas
to the decision makers (Mayor, Council, etc.) and to the
public: (5) PERT can be a decision making tool in the Choice
of strategy to be followed in conducting the program: and
(6) finally, PERT can be a coordination tool in carrying
out the plan by tying together the work among the various

agencies involved in the planning process.

Queuing Theory:

The queuing theory is concerned with problems in-
volved where there is a line formed due to an overload
of peOple or goods at a particular point. This problem
can cause disfunction in the system itself and poor per—
formance with the processing of additional inputs. This
situation can be solved through the use of techniques that
can be summarized as follows: (1) analysis of the problem
in order to determine the characteristics of the waiting
line. A method that has been used frequently to determine
the characteristics is the Monte-Carlo method where a
random sample is gathered to provide the htstory of the
problem. This procedure is repeated many (thousand) times

to arrive at an approximation close to the actual situation.

156
The.Monte Carlo method also provides the advantage of ex-
perimentation through the variation of the controllable
variables. (2) Once the various factors are known then
costs can be imposed on them such as cost of service, cost
of items, cost of waiting and so on. (3) The manager can
then manipulate the variable in order to minimize cost
and maximize profit.

This process has related applications in the field
of planning. Such applications include: (1) Analysis and
solution Of delays at tool booths of terminal facilities
of all sorts. (2) The problem of congestion due to peak
traffic loads. (3) The design of efficient tranSportation

terminals, and so on.

Inventory Problems:

The problem faced by most managers is “how much
stock“ do they need? The problem in this case is the'
determination of the quantity which would serve the
essential needs of the enterprise without using precious
Space for storage over long periods of time. Cost is

therefore the basis of this problem. It is, therefore,
imperative that costs of the various components be identi-
fied, measured, and relationship between the amount stored
and the costs involved be recognized. The cost of the
stocks on hand or cost Of ordering stocks can be easily
measured. The cost of running out of stock, on the other
hand, is more complex. This can include loss of sales,

1088 of production time, loss of good will by prospective

157
customers, losses associated with increases in costs due to
emergency orders, and so on.

Once these costs are derived (or assumed) then the
manager can choose a policy which will produce the highest
possible return. In order to do so he can use a decision
matrix similar to the matrix prOposed earlier in chapter
one. The matrix will consider cost of extra units
(strategies) against failures (states Of nature). The

matrix is illustrated below:

States Of Nature

 

 

 

 

N N -------------- N
El____.2 L 1
Strategies Extra Failures N
Units 0 l 2 .1_
81 0 $0 $1200 $2400 $
(1200xNJ)
82 1 $150 $ 150 $1350 $
83 2 $300 $ 300 $ 300 $
Si Ni $(150xNi)

 

The inventory problem described above can also have
related applications to urban planning in addition to the
obvious policy and decision approach. Some of these
applications might include: the inventory of vacant lots
for future city eXpansion, the inventory of structures
that can be used for commercial or industrial uses, the
inventory of housing to accomodate future pOpulations, and

80 on.

CHAPTER'VI

APPLICATION AND SUMMARY

The past chapters have outlined and described con-
cepts and techniques that have been applied or can be
applied in the planning process towards the formulation Of
alternative Spatial patterns. These concepts and techniques
were not, however, applied to either the generation or
evaluation of alternative pattern. In this chapter we
will apply the techniques of “models“ to the task Of
generating and evaluating alternative Spatial patterns
(structural outcomes) and outline its sale in the planning
process. Both the description and summary rely heavily on
the use of diagrams.as an illustration aid and a conceptual
summary tool. It is, therefore, imperative to study and
constantly refer to the diagrams for a thorough understand-

ing of the concepts prOposed.

Application of Models to Urban Planning

We have described the models and techniques that can
be used to analyze, project, or test various problems that
are a part Of the planning process or directly related or
applicable to it. The models will incorporate and use the
data described in the previous chapters to the problem at
hand, namely the generation of alternative spatial patterns

for the region.
158

159

Alternative patterns for this purpose are defined
as structural outcomes which are the result of controlled
structural strategies and uncontrollable factors. The
structural strategies are stated sets of structural policies
that are based on criteria prepared to satisfy the “needs
framework". The states of natures are uncontrollable
variables that should be considered as exerting a strong
influence on the outcomes.

The "growth" model will be the tool that can help
project the effects of alternative structural (design)
plans made up of controllable parameters, on the alternative
states of nature which are uncontrollable. The growth
model can perform this Operation by reducing the variables
to dependent and independent variables and then system-
atically solving the equations through a regression process
similar to the model described for the Baltimore Land Use
Study.

The outcomes that we will Obtain from the model can
be evaluated against performance criteria Specifications
that are in turn derived to satisfy the goal framework.

The decision maker can choose the structural outcome or a
combination of outcomes that can satisfy the already
agreed upon Specifications. This process is illustrated

in Figures 24, 25, and 26.

160

SUMMARY

The title of this paper suggests that we are going
to consider and evaluate new concepts and techniques in the
generation, analysis, and choice of alternative Spatial
patterns for the urban region. This Objective was achieved
through.the proposal Of three main concepts and a number of
sub concepts that are considered of great importance at
least to the develOpment of this paper.

The concepts include: (1) The Needs-Goals Framework,
(2) The Decision Framework for analysis choice and future
implementation, and (3) techniques which would facilitate
the generation, analysis and evaluation of the alternative
patterns.

Each of the major concepts included numerous sub-
concepts, categories and techniques which will be summarized
with major emphasis placed on the subject of alternative
patterns. First, the "needs framework" is the basis of all
human decisions and choice. In this context it is made up
Of the following components. The basic biological human
needs for survival, the additional needs that are not
essential for survival yet are important in the biological
develOpment of the human being and are reflections Of the
human cultural surroundings, these are classified as
"wants“:and the "desires“ that are usually personal and
imight be independent of the human cultural surroundings.
The sum total of these needs, wants, and desires are goals

to be attained if the development of the human being is to

161

FIGURE 22

THE DECISION FRAMEWORK AND ALTERNATIVE
SPATIAL OUTCOMES DERIVATION

 

States I
i Of
Nature

. I
-T .

Model Structural I Structural

 

 

 

Strategies Outcomes

Concept | Decision L‘
[

 

 

Criteria

 

 

 

 

 

 

The
Goals
Framework

 

 

Selection

 

 

 

162

 

 

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TI

 

 

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mmfioouso

 

 

 

 

 

MN MMDOHm

HMSOHDMHOQO
mmwoflaom mmHQMHHm>
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165

FIGURE 24

THE SELECTION PROCESS

States of Nature

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

. Ranked
Strategies ‘ Strategies
*’ Selected
Structural Strategies
Outcomes
Generation Evaluation
Criteria Criteria

 

 

 

 

 

 

'- The . FObjectives [A Specific—
Needs; and Criteria
Framework Constraints]

164
be attained. The goals are then the reflections of the
problems that require solutions. These problems can exist
on an individual basis or on a community basis. The com-
munity problems that require solutions at the institutional
level (government) are described as issues, which in turn
can be translated into policies. We have finally arrived
at a critical “building block" in the generation of alter-
native Spatial patterns for the urban region. The policies
are required to activate future develOpment outcomes. The
decision maker chooses among alternative sets of policies
in order to find the "package" that can best solve the
problems and by the same token meet the established goals
and Objectives for the region.

The “Decision Framework“ facilitates the process of
making a rational, objective decision by intentionally con-
sidering all the factors. These factors are called vari-
ables which in turn consist of controllable and uncontroll-
able variables. The controllable variables are called
strategies. The strategies when compared to the existing
planner framework will consist Of sets of policies, a policy
"package" or plan. The uncontrollable variables are called
states of nature and comprise all the elements‘that are
either known but beyond human control or unknown and likely
to materialize at some future date. The "states of nature“
are comparable to the present planning assumptions that so
far have not been actively used in the present decision

making process. The framework will project the controllable

165
and uncontrollable variables in order to Obtain alternative
outcomes. The outcomes desired in this are structural
oubomes rather than functional outcomes since these out-
comes can in turn become the components of alternative
spatial patterns. . .

Finally, the techniques covered will be visualized
as “tools" which can facilitate arriving at solutions other-
wise not considered due to the complexity of the problem.
The tools consist of mathematical techniques that, with
the help of computers, analyze, project, or test the vari—
ables. The “model” suggested in the decision framework
will project the controllable variables and test them
against the uncontrollable variables on a conceptual level.
The solution “outcomes“ can, however, be applicable to
"real life” by testing them against known data and criteria
develOped as a result of the "goal framework". The appli-
cation Of the tools described can contribute towards the
generation of alternative patterns by projecting the
structural outcomes that make up these patterns. The
decision maker can either choose the desirable outcomes
directly or can choose the combination Of the outcomes in
the form Of a “strategy".

In conclusion, the alternative patternsthat are
generated by using the three principal frameworks suggested
will more truly reflect the basic goals of the peOple and
since they are derived from alternative outcomes rather

than conceptual images they can be tested according to their

166
performance rather than their reflection Of imaginative

prOposals.

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168

FIGURE 26

OUTLINE OF CONCEPTS AND PROCESS OF ALTERNATIVE GENERATION

The Goals Framework

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Needs Policy
Wants Goals Objectives Criteria
* * . ‘4‘ v ‘7 44 '
DeSireS Plan - Choice Decision Framework
Of
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F ”i '
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Ranked
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1 Outcomes

 

 

 

 

 

I
Polic Criteria
. Y .J

 

The Tools for Decision

 

 

 

 

Systems The Goals Framework

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Community
aDd Solution Outc mes Decision
Models its Criteria 0 -%Framework
Problems

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Plan lei
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Alternatives
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CHAPIN,“Stuart. Urban Land Use Planning, 2nd edition,
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KUHN, Alfred. The Study of Society, Irwin & Dorsey Press,
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LYNCH, Kevin and RODWIN, Lloyd (eds.). The Future M tro is,
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OSBORN, Frederic J., and WHITTICK, Arnold. The New To 3,
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170

171
PERLOFF, Harvey 8. (ed.). Plannin and the Urban C unit ,
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Planning, University of Pennsylvania Press,
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SANDERS, Irwin. The Community: An Introduction to Social
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SHUCHMAN, Abe (ed.). Scientific Decision Making in
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1963.

STARR, Martin K. Production ManagementI Systgms and
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N.J., 1964.

The Editors of Fortune, The Exploding;MetroEglis,
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U.S. Department of Agriculture, A Place to Live, The Year-
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American Institute of Planning: “Public Opinion and Goals
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MITCHELL, Robert B. ”The New Frontier in Metropolitan
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174 5973

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