“aw—tum N v_-—- w '- " Lu'111111141. 1 F‘QPULATQON GROWN-E AND FOODGRAIN SUPPLY EN EAST PAKESTAN Thesis for flu Degree of M. S. MICHIGAN STATE UNIVERSETY Zinat Syed 19-62 m 2251: LIBRARY Michiga’n State University 4 . --A~.._._._.- ,,_ PLACE IN RETURN BOX to remove this checkout from your record. TO AVOID FINES return on or before date due. MAY BE RECALLED with earlier due date if requested. . DATE DUE DATE DUE . DATE DUE M 71248sz 5108 KIProj/Acd-ProlelRC/Dataouejndd A BSTRACT POPULATION GROWTH AND FOODGRAIN SUPPLY IN EAST PAKISTAN by Zinat Syed The purpose of this study is to examine the pattern of the popu- lation—-foodgrain resource problem likely to develop in the future in East Pakistan, given the present level of foodgrain production and per capita consumption. The primary source of data used was the crOp statistics and census reports published by the Government of Pakistan. The hypothesis tested by this study is whether or not the Province would be able to feed the growing population from its own foodgrain resources in the future. In the. past the domestic production of foodgrains has not been enough to feed the pOpulation of the Province at the low level of 14. 5 ounces per capita per day. The cumulative balance for 1947-60 be- tween foodgrain supply and requirements at this level of per capita availability shows an over-all deficit. However, when imports are also taken into account, the deficit situation turns into a surplus. In reality the surplus in part7represents a net addition to stock to maintain an even supply in commercial channels. The rate of growth of pOpulation has been less than one per cent for 1901-1931 due to high birth and death rates. During the decade 1931-41, the official rate of growth was higher in the previous period probably due to an inflation of returns and a diminution in epidemics. In 1941-51, the increase is negative because of the effects of World War II, partition, etc. During the last decade, i.e. 1951-61, the rate of growth registered about a two per cent increase due to a decline in Zinat Syed Ev the death rate. This may be considered a minimum rate of growth for the future period under study to the end of this century. If this rate of two per cent were to continue, population would more than double in the next forty years. To feed this population at present level of the per capita availability, double the present quantity of food— grains would be required. The potential for foodgrains production is such as to permit a higher level of per capita availability. This, however, is unlikely to be achieved. The probable production achievement estimated on the basis of past performance is likely to be barely sufficient to maintain a much larger population at the existing per capita consumption levels in the absence of an increased volume of imports. The level of demand, however, is not likely to remain static, due to industrialization and urbanization, at least in the urban sector. Extraordinary efforts over and above present levels will, therefore, need to be made to increase production. Alternatively the increase in the rate of growth of population will need to be checked, not by increasing the death rate, which is impractical for political and social reasons, but by checking the high birth rate. POPULATION GROWTH AND FOODGRAIN SUPPLY IN EAST PAKISTAN By Zinat Syed A THESIS Submitted to the College of Agriculture, Michigan State University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE Department of Agricultural Economics 1962 (hf/4,4449% j flap/Lem ¢I/ 2/46 ,/ v-— 7 /‘73—/€I‘ sag/{.3 /flrm Ucooom .cmpmfixmnm mo aceECMmZ/OO 50538980 wcwccwfim 9.3 an, poumgflme mnemohucfi mo mama pcoo sea as; 3me eat. so msg#35030 Seen mmfi coflmfismome 31 50335 moo .Nw mm? Amod cw veumHeESCe mm onswfl mdmcou efiH. .0922? x003 o: Maugham/we 4mm: uUwE 09. as coflmfidmoa mgosmm mum?» pic :5 .cofioswoum oflwmgoe 0:» we «coo you 3 EmumewauQam ma mEH; e.ms wov.om oaow on+ owes mmw emmw oo-omoa a.m~ mom.oe oomo osm+ ooas so» woos om-wmos s.ea mes.we Hem» wmm+ moms we» owe» mm->mos N.os emo.me aman omw+ mme» saw seam sm-omoa m.ma sm_.ee moeo Nwm+ mawm new ones om-mmos s.ea mom.sa some a“- same one pass mm-¢mos a.ss soo.ov mmms ma+ mom» ems Nemw em-mmoa o.ea asm.me moms ass+ wwoo mes Ame» mm-Nmoa h.es wao.we ease Nem+ ease map has» mm-smos m.ms mwm~.me came sms+ mwso me» was» sm-omoa N.os *sea.me mmos m0m+ mane new when om-oeoa 0.0a *Nmo.~e mock ass+ emoo can cons o¢-weoa o.es esse.se owns wm+ Mess awe ease we->was gee Med .Nov 395.0505; ....... .. ................. mac» US$305 .......................... a. Knfiinmdm>< NCOEEDQOQ mcwmpwpooh Auvmtoaxm coflospohnw ofimegoQ Hem? COEUDUOHQ Ewe? Sammy uenH mo m3mim>< use 80$ pooh new UOOHCOZ mcwmpmpooh >396 37H Aim? can: e3mfim>< 130% 3-3.2 3:5 933134 3&3 eoom .u 2an 32 In estimating the extent of foodgrain per capita availability, a distinction has to be made between the calorie requirements of a minor and an adult in order to obtain some criteria for minimum quantities. Lusks1 coefficient of comparison of the food requirement of children with those of an average adult is: Age— Adult Equivalent Value per head 0- 15 0. 7 Males over 15 1.0 Females over 15 0.83 Average 0'835 Dr. Aykroyd2 has suggested the following scale of coefficients on the basis of caloric requirements: Group Coefficient Adult male over 14 l. 0 (3 Adult female over 14 Child 12 and 13 years Old Child 10 and 11 years old Child 8 and 9 years old Child 6 and 7 years old. OOOOO va‘O‘NCXJOO Child 4 and 5 years old The practice in most of the rationed areas in the province is to treat all children of 8 years and below as requiring half the quantity of foodgrains that is needed for an adult. This means, roughly, 30 per cent of the total population would be in this category in 1951. 1R. K. Mukerjee. Food Planning for Four Hundred Million. 2Baljit Singh, Population and Food Planning in India. 33 This would approximate a 15 per cent adult man value. Thus, 85 per cent of the total population would represent an effective equivalent adult population. Official estimates, however, are that 100 people are equivalent to 80 adult male units. Projections of food requirements are made by the Government on this basis. Caloric requirements are estimated on three bases, viz. (1) for minimum body maintenance, (.2) for everyday activity, and (3) for heavy labor tasks. Dr. Aykroydl has estimated on an average 2, 600 calories per day for ordinary work; in heavy manual labor, however, 2, 800-3, 000 calories would be required. Dr. Burridge's estimates are Z, 680 caloric requirements per person per day.‘2 A diet survey in South India arrives at a figure of 2., 560 calories.3 The total number of calories for rice eaters has roughly been fixed at Z, 600 by l\/iukherj,ee4 (including 200 calories for wastage). The F.A. O. in the World Food Survey Report of 1952, estimated the requirements of Pakistan at Z, 300 calories per person per day. The Indian Nutrition Advisory Cmnmittee suggested between 2, 250 and 2., 285 calories for wheat and rice diets respectively. hConsumption of about 2, 250 calories per person per day has been considered the minimum desirable by the Government of Pakistan.5 1lbid. 3Mukherjee, (_)_p_. c_i_t 3Singh, op. cit. 21?; cit. 4Mukherjee, 5Memorandum on the U.S. Surplus Agricultural Commodities Aid to Pakistan, p. 3. 34 As a basis for comparing the present levels of production of foodgrains with what might be considered to be reasonable minimum requirements for East Pakistan, the estimate of Z, 250 calories per person per day as given by the Indian Nutritional Advisory Committee will be accepted. Such a criterion ignores nutritional standards other than calories, i. e. , proteins and vitamins, but time and'data do not permit a more comprehensive approach. It is further assumed, based on'analysis of foodgrains patterns, that 80 per cent of the calories consumed in East Pakistan are derived from foodgrains. Thus the food grains required per adult per day would be 1,800 calories and, on the basis of 100 calories per ounce of foodgrains, the adult daily foodgrain requirement is 1.8 ounces. On a per capita daily basis covering the population as a whole, the equivalent would be 14. 5 ounces after allowing for age composition. Foodgrain requirements as calculated on this basis are shown in Table 3. The supply of foodgrains available to the population from 1947;19:18/1959-1960 is shown on this table, also. This estimate exc1udes net trade in foodgrains and an allowance of 10 per cent has been deducted for feed, seed, and wastage. A comparison between the supply availability from domestic production and the minimum foodgrain requirements, as estimated above, would indicate, over the period covered, that on balance there has been a deficit. The accumulation of annual balances shows a sur- plus of about 1. 7 million tons up to and including 1954-1955; thereafter, beginning with a substantial deficit in 1955-56, the cumulative figures worsen to a deficit for the whole period of two million tons by 1955—1960. It may therefore be concluded that on the basis adopted here, East Pakistan's foodgrains production is not keeping. pace with the. growth in population nor the minimum calorie requirement. This conclusion, Table 3. Foodgrain Situation (Excluding Imports and Exports) 1947-48/1959—60 Foodgrain Balance (Col. Z-Col. 4) Foodgrain Foodg rain - 8 Requirement Year Supply Availablel 1947-48 6ih48 6,138 +4 1948-49 6,984 6,884 '+760 1949-50 6,785 6,311 +414 1950-51 6,685 6,399 +886 1951-58 6,414 6,605 _191 19528-53 6,688 6,706 -18 1953—54 7,508 6,808 +700 1954-55 6,987 6,891 +36 1955-56 5,883 6,984 —1161 1956-57 7,435 7,097 +348 1957-58 6,903 7,814 -311 1958-59 6,899 7,335 -1036 1959-60 7,699 7,460 +839 lExcluding 10 per cent production, feed, seed, etc. 3At 18 ounces per adult per day, i.e. , about 14.5 ounces per person per day. 36 however, must be interpreted in the light of the statistical deficiencies outlined in the previous chapter. It would appear that the minimum calorie basis adopted here is in accordance with the Government of Pakistan's foodgrain policies, for the Government has apparently imported foodgrains in order to supplement domestic production so that available supplies would approximate the levels of food requirements as indicated by the 14. 5 ounces per person per day used in this analysis. This is indicated by the data on foodgrain supply availability and requirements shown in Table 4. Here the available supply includes net import data. On this basis the cumulative balance of foodgrains for 1947-1948/1959-1960 would indicate a surplus of 3 million tons above the minimum require— ments as estimated. In order to maintain this position, however, it would appear that there has been an increasing necessity to expand the volume of foodgrains imported. This is indicated in Table 2 by the relatively higher volume of net foodgrains imported in the period from 1955-1956 onwards as compared with previous years. This conclusion, however, must be adjusted to take into account the fact that the Government of Pakistan in these years has been attempting to increase its stocks of ' foodgrains in order to maintain an even supply of foodgrains in com- mercial Channels throughout the year. Data are not available to the writer which would indicate the magnitude of these stocks at the present time. Practically all foodgrains have been directed towards the supply of urban requirements. As such they represent a supplement to internal foodgrains procurement both private and governmental de- signed to supply the non-agricultural population. The necessity for imports, therefore, has been due largely to the fact that the volume of domestic procurement has not been adequate to supply a growing 37 Table 4. Foodgrain Situation Including Imports and Exports 1947-48/1959-60 Net Foodgrain Foodgrain Balance of Year Supply Available Requirementl Foodgrains 1947-48 6,180 6,138 +42 1948-49 7,095 6, 224 +871 1949—50 7,033 6, 311 +722 1950-51 6,816 6, 399 +417 1951-52 6,676 6,605 +71 1952-53 6,865 6, 706 +159 1953-54 7, 553 6,808 +745 1954-55 6, 900 6,891 +9 1955-56 6,405 6, 984 -579 1956-57 7, 924 7,097 +827 1957-58 7, 241. 7, 214 +27 1958-59 6, 599 7, 335 -736 1959-60 8,019 7,460 +559 1At 18 ounces per adult per day, i. e. , about 14. 5 ounces per day. per person 38 urban population. This in part may be due to inadequacies of govern- ment procurement policies, particularly as regards prices offered which have usually been set at a level corresponding to the seasonal low during the main harvesting period. One reason for this may be to minimize the financial burden on the treasury due to the fact that government procured foodgrain supplies have not always been sold at a price sufficiently high to cover procurement plus marketing costs and thus involved a subsidy. On the other hand the lack of an adequate volume of internal procurement sufficient to cover urban foodgrain requirements is ' indicative of the strength of demand for foodgrains at present real income levels, on the part of the rural population, which is somewhat higher than the minimum calorie levels assumed here. The income elasticity for food is probably high in East Pakistan. Moreover, due to the high degree of self-sufficiency in East Pakistan agriculture where most foodgrains is produced for direct consumption, the level of rural consumption fluctuates annually with the size of the crop, i. e. , additional production is largely consumed on the farm. This may also be indicative of a minimum cash requirement for non-agricultural goods or at least one which may not change much with the size of the cereals crop. Given the rate of increase in population illustrated in Chapter II and the relative dearth of unused land resources relative to the pOpu- lation, as well as the overwhelming rural nature of the economy and the failure of yields to eXpand, the outlook for increasing the volume of foodgrain surpluses in rural areas, which could be used to feed an increasing urban population, is not good. Assuming that these esti- mates of minimum calorie requirements in terms of foodgrains were to hold in the future and the rural pattern of consumption would not change with relatively static income patterns, then it is unlikely that 39 any considerable increase in rural procurement of foodgrains by government would occur. The conclusion, therefore, would appear to be that the need for imports for foodgrains is more likely to in- crease than to diminish in the future, unless trends in production and population growth as envisaged here were to change. Efforts were made by the Government to increase foodgrain pro- duction through yields--by use of better seeds, fertilizer, etc., but there is little evidence of any response to these efforts. Efforts have also been made to tackle the problem from the other side of the equation through a reduction in the rate of growth in population. Again it has been indicated that this rate has been increasing as a result of a high and stable birth rate with a decreasing trend in death rates. For political and social reasons it is highly unlikely that public health programs, largely responsible for the decline in the death rate, will be relaxed. Any reduction in the net surplus of births over deaths, therefore, would need to be induced through efforts to reduce the high birth rate through measures to introduce family planning concepts, such as the establishment of planned parenthood clinics. The extent of efforts in this direction by the Government have been limited to date. Government efforts would need to be stepped up drastically if any significant results are to be attained. Even so, it is unlikely that immediately effective results would appear. Meanwhile, short-term measures designed to alleviate the tight foodgrains situation have been adopted through the imposition of regulations designed to restrict consumption. Rationing had been maintained since Independence until recently for the urban‘population with varying degrees of success. Various regulations have also been issued to restrict overconsumption and waste not only of foodgrains but for sugar, potatoes and animal products. Limits have been imposed on the number of people to whom such items may be served 40 on festive occasions and social ceremonies. Such measures, however, must be considered as mere palliatives and do not attack directly the two main problems involved; namely, the need to increase the productivity of agriculture and or to reduce the rate of growth in population. CHA PT ER V POPULATION AND FOODGRAIN SUPPLY PROJECTIONS AND CONCLUSIONS Population has been increasing at a rapid rate in East Pakistan though the rate of increase is not the highest in the world. Unless Malthusian "positive checks” become operative or, otherwise, some very strong and effective measures on the part of the Government to institute preventive checks, this tendency to increase will continue for a number of years. As stated earlier, famine in the early Forties in Bengal and migration around 1947 resulted in a setback in the population growth between 1941-1951 (see Table 1). It is also possible that this dif- ference may be due to inaccuracies of the data. Thompsonl thinks that the rate of population growth will rise rapidly for some time as determined by "the degree of success attained by the health services. " The birth rate, according to him, "will decline very slowly within the next two or three decades, if at all, while the death rate may drop rapidly after another five or ten years. " His projection of population growth or rather what he calls his ”informed guess" for the country as a whole for every 1, 000 people is shown in Table 5. 1W. S. Thompson, Population and Progress in the Far East, p. 280. 41 Table 5.1 Probable Birth and Death Rates, and Population Increase in Pakistan, 1951-83 Birth Death Natural Percentage Years Rate Rate Increase Increase 1951-58 (7.5 years) 42 30 12 1.2 1959-63 (5 years) 42 28 14 1.4 1964-68 (5 years) 41 26 15 1. 5 1969-73 (5 years) 40 24 16 1.6 1974—78 (5 years) 38 20 18 1.8 1979-83 (5 years) 38 18 20 2.0 The rate of increase per annum estimated by the Planning Cornniis sion2 is: Percentage Years Rate of Increase 1947-48/1950-51 1.40 1951- 52/1954-55 1.42 1955-56/1964—65 1.45 According to the latest available census figures the population of East Pakistan now stands at 50. 844 million as compared with the 1951 census estimate of 42.063. This comparison indicates an in- crease of about 20.9 per cent over the decade or at a rate of about 2 per cent per annum. This rate of increase is much higher than that which was projected either by ThompsOn or the Planning Commission. If this is the rate. of increase over the past decade, the rate of increase ‘Ibid. 2The Second Five-Year Plan, Planning Commission, Govern— ment of Pakistan, p. 331. 43 in the subsequent years is likely to be at an accelerated pace if no appreciable decline is envisaged in the birth rate but a decline in the death rate continues. Perhaps 2.4 per annum would not be too high an esti— mate as a maximum. Should the birth rate decline to 40 per thousand and the death rate does not decline as fast as has been envisaged, i. e. , if it should decline to 20 per thousand the rate of increase would then be about 2 per cent. Two per cent increase is likely to be the minimum rate. For the purpose of this study we assume this 2 per cent growth throughout. the period under study. A population projection based on this estimate is calculated in Table 6. Table 6. Projection of Rate of Increase and Population Growth in the Decades 1961-2001 Birth Death Natural Population Years Rate Rate Increase in millions 1961 42 22 20 50.996 1971 42 22 20 62.164 1981 41 21 20 75.778 1991 41 21 20 92.373 2001 40 20 20 112. 602 Under this assumption the population in 1961 would more than double by the close of the century. To feed this population, more than double the present (1959-60) quantity of foodgrains would be required, on the assumption of no appreciable change in the consumption habits of the people, their income and prices in general. To this quantity may also be added the requirements for seed, feed, and waste which is estimated to be 10 per cent of total. 44 111le on UK bdblS 0f 14. 5 ounces of per capita per day, plus the requirement for seed feed etc., the total foodgrain requirements over the decades 1960-61/2000-2001 works out to be: Foodgrain Require- Foodgrain Require- Total Food ments for Human ments for Feed, Grain Re- Years Consumption Seed, Waste quirements ------------ in million tons-----------— 1960-61 7.547 0.839 8.386 1970—71 9.194 1.022 10.216 1980-81 11.215 1.246 12.461 1990-91 13.671 1.519 15.190 2000—2001 16.665 1.852 18.517 If the population has to be fed entirely from the local produce at the present level of consumption then there are several possibilities to augment the available food supplies viz. (i) to increase the area under cultivation, (ii) to increase the productivity from land, and (iii) to reduce the extent of wastage. An alternative possibility is to reduce the number of mouths to feed either by increasing the death rate or reducing the birth rates. If the population has to be fed entirely from the local produce, the crop area will also have to be doubled, if the productivity of the land and the extent of double cropping is assumed to be the same as at present. The possibilities for extending the agricultural crop area is limited, the limit being imposed by political boundaries, water resources, etc. The total area of the province is only about 35. 4 million acres of which a maximum of 26 million acres could be cultivated ultimately.1 1Planning Commission, Government of Pakistan, The Second Five Year Plan, 1960-65, p. 194. 45 At present, only about 21.6 million acres are under cultivation of which about 1. 2 million acres remain current fallow. The ultimate maximum net area sown would be about 25 million annually excluding current fallows amounting to one million acres. The possible net increase in the area is thus likely to amount to about 3. 6 million acres. The use of an acre twice or thrice when previously it was used once. a year is in a sense equivalent to an expansion of area. Nearly two thirds of the area in the province is single cropped (see Appendix I). An additional solution therefore lies in converting as much as possible of this single cropped area into double or multiple cropped area. Dr. Van Blomniesteinl estimated that of 22 million acres under cultivation 13 million acres were not subject to inundation or only inundated in part. He considered it practicable to irrigate this huge area by a canal system fed by pumping stations or by the construction of barrages. This is also indicated in the First Five Year Plan of Pakistan‘2 which reads: The ultimate. increase in the sown area is limited by water supply available during the dry winter season. Its maximum availability in winter, for agricultural purposes, has been esti- mated roughly to be of the order of 50 million acre feet, which if properly utilized, would be able to irrigate about 13 million acres. Given adequate supplies of water, it should be possible to sow 25 million acres in the monsoon, and 80 per cent of this, or 20 million, in the winter. The Planning Commission's estimates add up to a gross of 45 million acres that can be cropped including double cropping. Crop yields in East Pakistan are low though not significantly as compared with neighboring countries. Rice (Paddy)3 yields in some 1FAQ: The Appraisal of Agricultural Fishery and Forestry Resources in Relation to Needs in the Lower-Ganges-Brahmaputra Basin, Ch. V, p. 65. 2First Five Year Plan: National Planning Board, Government of Pakistan, p. 344. 3The ratio of paddy to cleaned rice is 100:60-65. of the Asian countries are:1 Countries Yield quintals per hectare India 1.3. 6 Burma 17. O Ceylon 15. 5 Thailand 13. 9 Philippines 11. 0 In East Pakistan the yield per acre of rice (cleaned) is around 10 maundsZ per acre,3 i. e. about 14.6 quintals per hectare of paddy. These low yields could be improved with water control measures, use of fertilizer and other cultural practices, research and extension. Ong, in his Farm Management Studies for the Ganges-Kobadak area assumed an increase in paddy yield from 13. 5 to 21. 6 maunds from the effects of irrigation alone.4 All other evidence also points toward "a gain of around 10 maunds or perhaps more from controlled irrigation, without manuring or other cultural improvements, compared with the. average of good and bad years when the paddy crop is dependent on the fortunes of the monsoon floods. "5 As regards the ability of fertilizer to increase yields the results obtained to date have been mainly that from experiment research station. This data has led to considerable controversy.6 Mukerjee,7 however, 1FAO Production Yearbook, 1960, Rome. Table 18, pp. 50-51. 2One maund is equal to 82. 286 lbs or 0. 373 quintals. 3See Appendix V. 4FAQ: The Appraisal of Agricultural, Fishery and Forestry Resources in Relation to Needs in the Lower Ganges-Brahrnaputra Basin, Ch. VI, p. 14. 51bid., Ch. v1, pp. 14-15. 61bid., Ch. v1, p. 23. 7He writes: "As a result of my observations on the effects of fertilizers on the growing crops and discussions with the cultivators, 47 is of the opinion that there is no reason why the response to fertilizers in West Bengal and East Pakistan should be lower than in Bihar. The response to fertilizer is estimated by FAQ to be on the average around 10 maunds (3.73 quintals) per acre for paddy and 5-7 maunds (1.865-2.611 quintals) for Rabi cereals; for pulses it is esti- mated to be similar to winter cereals "but data are too scanty to be sure."1 Data are also not available on the response of crOps to factors other than irrigation or fertilizer. It is, however, generally held "that use of existing improved varieties under existing conditions would raise yields from 15 to 25 per cent. "2 Of the 26 million acres (see page 44) 13 million acres can be irrigated; a little over 10 million3 cannot be irrigated because of annual inundation, and the rest also cannot be irrigated because of the elevation being slightly higher or because of special soil or other characteristics.4 At present these inundated lands are used principally for her—c: rice cultivation. "Much of it is irrigated by a primitive system from the deeper areas where water remains. " The extent of this area I am convinced that the conclusions drawn by the FAO expert Teensma and the Economic Botanist, Dr. Alim, that the use of fertilizers is not economical and should be advocated with great caution, are based on extremely limited evidence, much of which are not of general appli- cation. " Monthly report of FAO, Nov. C.f. FAO, Appraisal of Agri- cultural, Fishery and Forestry Resources in Relation to Needs in the Lower Ganges Brahmaputra Basin, Ch. V1, p. 23. 1FAQ: The Appraisal of Agricultural, Fishery, and Forestry Resources in Relation to Needs in the Lower Ganges Brahmaputra Basin, Ch. ‘VI, p. 23. 21pm., p. 24. 31bid., p. 35. 41bid., p. 35. - 48 cropped is limited by the land that can be prepared in time.1 As regards the prospects of increasing the yields of crops in these inundated areas the FAO report readsz‘Z It would appear probably, however, that after the development of the irrigation resources of the lower Ganga Brahmaputra basin, irrigated paddy will have a very consider- able comparative advantage, and with the gradually increasing importance of an exchange economy, rice production is likely to be confined to these areas. Therefore, except in so far as the inundated areas can be dependably irrigated by pumping from rivers or lakes during the dry season,3 the land-use may well change from transplanted boro to other Rabi crops for which the area will have a greater comparative advantage. In bringing the full area available under crop, better implements, stronger draft animals, and perhaps even some mechanical power will be important. The FAO report reads further that: Yields of rabi crops in these seasonally inundated areas should be capable of reaching levels well above the present average rabi yields in the survey unit, where a large proportion of the rabi grows under precarious moisture conditions. The exceptionally high initial soil moisture, the comparatively ade- quate winter rainfall and the very considerable possibilities for supplementary irrigation should ensure near-optimum moisture requirements with improved variety, better soil preparation and fertilizers there would appear to be no reason why yields of cereals and pulses should not average at least 15 maunds (5. 595 quintals). 1B. L. C. Johnson, "A Note on cropping system in relation to physiographic conditions in East Pakistan, " 1957. 2The Appraisal of Agricultural, Fishery, and Forestry Resources in Relation to Needs in the Lower Ganges Brahmaputra Basin, p, 36, 3Van Blommestein's proposals for maintaining water levels in the Mymensingh Sylhet depression by a barrage across the Surma on Meghna are relevant here. The Appraisal of Agricultural, Fishery, and Forestry Resources in Relation to Needs in the Lower Ganges Brahmaputra Basin, p. 36. 49 The resultant yields from better irrigation facilities, use of fertilizers and improved farming, are estimated in the FAO report1 at 40 maunds (14.92 quintals) per acre for paddy (i. e. , an increase of about 25 maunds (9. 325 quintals) per acre) 25 maunds (9. 325 quintals for wheat and 20 maunds (7.46 quintals) for pulses. No definite figures are available for rice yields in the nonirrigated area; however, the estimates for other cereals and pulses are around 15 maunds (5.595 quintals) per acre. The Planning Commission's estimates of 45 million acres that can be cropped annually including double cropping may be distributed between foodgrains and other crops on the basis of their existing distribution: as follows: Summer} Winter4 Monsoon Monsoon Total ------- in million acres------ Net cultivated area 25.0 20.0 45.0 All other crops (excluding foodgrains 4.5 3.5 8.0 Foodgrains 20.5 16.5 37.0 This foodgrain area may be distributed to rice and other crops as fol] ows:5 llbid. 2The existing ratio between food and other crops (excluding food- grains) is approximately 11:2. 3June to October. 4November to February. 5The entire area under foodgrains would be put under rice culti— vation during summer monsoon and approximately 50% of the total food- grain area would be put under rice during winter monsoon and remaining area under other foodgrain crOps, because of suitability of soil, demand for other foodgrains such as gram, wheat, etc. 50 Summer Winter Monsoon Monsoon Total in million acres Wet rice 20.5 8.3 28.8 Dry crops -— 8.2 8.2 The maximum yield per acre of rice and other foodgrains estimated in the FAO report using the best of present known technology is: Summer Winter Monsoon lVlonsoon in long tons per acre Wet rice (cleaned) 1.0 0.751 Dry crops -- 0. 70 The production of foodgrain thus calculated would be: Summer Winter Monsoon Monsoon Total million long tons Wet rice (cleaned) 20.5 6.20 26.7 Dry crops -- 5.8 5.8 20.5 12.0 32.5 This is the maximum possible foodgrain production that the Province could have when all the land and water resources are fully developed and all the present known technology is applied. This is much more than the requirements estimated for the beginning of the next century which is about 18. 517 million long tons inclusive of feed, seed, etc. These estimates, however, do not seem feasible of achievement in the next fOrty years. The irrigation of entire 13 million acres does not seem likely to occur in this period in view of achievements to date. The irrigation program envisaged in the First Five Year Plan was only partially fulfilled. Against a target of 100, 000 acres of new 1No estimates were given by the FAO of winter rice yields. These are therefore estimates based on slight improvement over the present yields. 51 area to be brought under cultivation and 1, 819, 000 acres improved through irrigation facilities, the achievements were only 58, 000 acres and 562, 000 acres respectively.1 During the Second Plan, the culti- vated area likely to be improved by irrigation and the new area to be irrigated are 1,127, 000 acres and 230,000 respectively.‘Z Keeping in view the past performance and present estimates made by the Planning Commission about the extension of irrigation facilities, it would not be too ambitious to expect 1. 4 million acres of new area to be brought under irrigation and 6, 900, 000 acres improved through irrigation facilities. In all, therefore, about 8. 3 million acres would be irrigated at the beginning of the next century out of an estimated irrigable area of 13 million acres. The total area at present under cultivation is 21. 6 million acres (of which 1. 2 is current fallow) and the new area to be brought under cultivation over the next 40 years would be 1.4 million acres. The net cultivated area would thus be 23 million acres of which at least. 1. 0 million may be expected to remain current fallow. Thus, the remain- ing area of 22 million acres could be made available for cultivation. This is taken to be a reasonable and achievable goal based on (past performance. The Planning Commission estimates that the 100 per cent of the cultivated area (25 million acres) is a maximum that could theoretically be brought under cultivation during the monsoon season (see page 45). In winter it estimates 80 per cent of this area (see page 46), i. e. , about 17.6 million acres, could be sown during winter. This adds up to 39. 6 million acres. However, irrigation facilities as estimated here will be available to the extent of 8. 3 million acres and the extent of double cropped area at present is only 5. 5 million acres3 all of which adds up 1Second Five Year Plan, Planning COInmission, Govt. of Pakistan, p. 197. 2Ibid., p. 137. 3'Presumably in the non irrigated area. to only 13. 8 million acres or roughly about 14 million acres to be double cropped. Therefore, on this basis only 36.10 million acres would be available for cultivation towards the Close of the century. This entire area, however, will not be put to foodgrain culti- vation. At present, the ratio of area under foodgrain to other crops is about 11:2. If this same ratio is also considered the distribution of area to foodgrain and other crops would be; Summer Winter monsoon , monsoon Total million ac res Net cultivated area 22.0 14.0 36.0 Other crops (excluding foodgrains) 3.5 2.9 6.6 Foodgrains 18.5 11.1 29.6 The breakup of area between rice and other foodgrains would thus be: Summer Winter monsoon monsoon Total million acres Wet rice 18.5 5.6 24.1 Dry crops --- ‘ 5.5 5.5 To achieve the high yields estimated by FAO under optimum conditions given present knowledge (see page 49) though possible is not feasible in so short a time. No estimates are given by FAQ for rice yields in the non-irrigated areas. Feasible yield estimates considered here would be about 0. 75 long tons per acre of wet rice1 in summer monsoon and 0. 52 million tons (long) per acre in winter monsoon and that of other foodgrain on an average would be around 0. 56 tons (long) per acre. 1Cleaned. The production of foodgrains thus calculated on the basis of above yield and feasible acreage estimates would be; Sunime r Winte r Inonsoon monsoon Total in million long tons Wet rice (cleaned) 13.88 2.96 16.82 Dry crops -- 3.08 3.08 Total 13.88 6.02 19.90 If 101,7E'of the foodgrains are deducted from this for feed, seed, waste, etc. , the available supply at the beginning of the next century would be 17. 91 million (long) tons. The per capita availability of foodgrains on the basis of this feasible programme would be about 1,580 calories in the year 2001 for a population of 112. 6 million. The increase over the present consumption level would thus be about 130 calories, i. e., about 9% increase. Such a per capita supply of foodgrains would seem adequate at the present level of consumption and income. However, these levels are not likely to remain static. With industrialization and urbanization incmne levels are likely to increase thus raising also the demand for food. The conclusion of this examination of the relationship between probable increases in population and feasible upward adjustments in the acreage under cultivation and the yields per acre of food grains based on present knowledge is that foreseeable expansion in the food grains supplies is unlikely to meet the need of the population beyond the near-present levels of consumption. This would be unsatisfactory on political and welfare grounds. Considerable effort would need to be made. by government and the rural comniu-nity merely to keep on an even plain. No bright future could be held out to the population as a reward for extra effort, the adoption of improved technology and additional capital inve stment. 54 ‘Assuming the. "feasible" estimates given here are all that is possible on the basis of present programs, it is highly likely that food grains and other food stuffs would have to be imported to feed a grow- ing industrial and urban population who presumably would, as a result of their higher productivity, trade union activities and government measures designed to increase real incomes,demand a higher standard of living than they are now enjoying. Developments in recent years point in this direction. This would still leave, however, a vastly increased rural popu- lation at or near present levels of real incomes as most of their working time. would be devoted to producing the basic food stuffs required for their maintenance. It may be. concluded, therefore, that extraordinary effort, over and above that presently being put forth which is extrapolated in the "feasible" targets adopted here, will be necessary in order to achieve a closer approximation to FAO'S maximum achieveable acreage and yields, if any material improvement is to be made on the present plane of living. Such extraordinary measures would require a rapid stepping up of the rate of growth of those factors considered to be necessary in order to translate presently known and improved knowledge to rural pOpulation. This means improvements in the basic level of general education through the elementary school system including training in technology required for increased production. Such improved basic educational facilities must be supplemented by an effective extension service. Product markets for factors of production, particularly for fertilizers, improved seed, etc. , must be deveIOped. Moreover, in the near future, programs for necessary water control measures on a con— siderable scale must be planned and implemented, for, on the scope envisaged by FAO, forty years is not a very long time for implemen- tation. 55 As stated above the view adopted here is one of questioning the belief that the goals laid down by FAO can effectively be implemented. Hence, under the assumption that adequate foreign exchange or foreign aid will not be forthcoming to finance food imports, an alternative or complementary solution is to attempt to slow down the rate of increase in the population. It will be remembered that the rate of growth of population of 2 per cent adopted here is a minimum; on the basis of recent trends a higher rate of 2.4 per cent could well occur. The solution of letting the death rate rise is neither politically or morally feasible. Attention, therefore, needs to be directed to a slowing down in the birth rate from present high levels. This may well come about naturally with the continued growth in population relative to natural resources and possible increases in real incomes similar to that which has taken place in Japan and in Europe. For purposes of policy making, however, it is not feasible to assume that this will take place. The advocacy of a program of birth control, however, involves prob- lems which probably are equally as difficult as those required to solve the problem of production. Effective implementation is unlikely to come about as a result of official government programs in the absence of active cooperation and initiative on the part of the population in general. It is not the purpose here to examine what would be a feasible program for reducing the birth rate but only to indicate that unless the production of food can be increased at a much greater rate than is expected here then the only method of tackling the problem is to reduce the nuiriber of mouths to be fed below that which may be expected as a result of the present trends in birth and death rates. BIBLIOGRAPHY Central Food and Technological Research Institute, 1952, Mysore, "Food and Population and Development of Food Industries in India. " Department of Agriculture and Forests, Government of Bengal, 1944-45, Calcutta, "Agricultural Statistics by Plot to Plot Enumeration in Bengal. ” Part I. Directorate of Agricultural Marketing, East Pakistan, 1958, Dacca ”Rice Situation in East Pakistan. " Food and Agriculture Organization, Rome, 1960 ”Production Year Book.“ Food and Agriculture Organization, Rome, unpublished, ”Appraisal of Agricultural, Fishery and Forestry Resources in Relation to Needs in the Lower Ganges Brahmaputra Basin. " Government of Bengal,19~10, Calcutta, "Report of the Land Revenue Commission, " Bengal, Vol. I. Government of Pakistan, 1951, Karachi, "Census Report of Pakistan, " Vol. I. Jack, J. C. , 1915, Calcutta, "Final Report on the Survey and Settle- ment of Operators in the Bakarganj District, 1900-1908. " Ministry of Agriculture, Government of India 1948, Delhi ”Estimates of Area and Yield of Principal CrOps in India, 1936-46. " Ministry of Food and Agriculture, Government of Pakistan 1961, Karachi, ”Area, Production and Yield per Acre of Principal Crops in East Pakistan 1947—60. " Ministry of Food and Agriculture, Government of Pakistan, March 1959, Karachi, "Land and Crop Statistics of Pakistan, " Fact Series III. Ministry of Labour, Government of Pakistan, 1956, Karachi, "IVlan- power Survey Report." Mukherjee, R. K., 1938, London, ”Food Planning for Four Hundred Million. " 56 Nafis, Ahmed, 1958, Karachi and New York, "An Economic Geography of East Pakistan. National Planning Board, Government of Pakistan, December 1957, Karachi, "The First Five Year Plan 1955-60. " O'lVlalley, 1916, Calcutta, "Rajshahi District Gazetteer. " Planning Commission, Government of Pakistan, February, 1961, Unpublished "Memorandum on the U. S. Surplus Agricultural Commodities Aid to Pakistan." Planning Commission, Government of Pakistan, 1960, Karachi "The Second Five Year Plan 1960-65. " Proceedings for the IX Pakistan Science Conference, 1957, Peshawar "Symposium on the Causes of Decline in Agricultural Production in Pakistan." Saha, K. B. , "Economics of Rural Bengal." Singh, Baljit, 1947, Bombay, "Population and Food Planning in India. " Thompson, W. S., 1959, University of Chicago Press, "Population and Progress in the Far East." APPENDICES 58 5.8.3me Go .8500 .onsfidoflpm/N pcm pooh Go .232 .cmumgmnw mo mofimfimem mohO pcm pcmq .223“an ”hmummofi Ou wvuhvm: :3ch mo €60 ..Em< so .52 .8182: 3?; E 380 1&6ch do 22% as e3< so mBmEumm 2.122 8 2.02: 638m oms.vm cmo.mm oww.m owo.zm om¢.om oo2.2 coo.2 oam.m ose.m nm-©m omo.em coo.mN 02m.m omo.2N om¢.om cow.2 coo.2 omm.m sew.m om-mm ooo.em 0mm.nm cam.o OM2.MN oom.om o»_.2 02o.m 02o.m 02m.m mm-¢m fimo.¢m oop.>m moo.o mmm.- oom.om mae.2 amm.w oap.¢ : em-mm wvo.vM 2we.am aam.o mom.NN noo.o~ 2o¢.2 mom.¢ ~o~.e : mm-mm omo.em oas.o~ owo.o w¢N.wN ooo.om Nmm.. 2w¢.w oss.¢ : am-2m omc.wm omm.o~ wo~.m me.NN Nem.om moo.2 vom.w mop.¢ om2.m 2m-om omo.em wmo.mN Nom.m wmm.NN ooo.o~ NmN.N mmm.w moo.m : om-ae amo.wm Nem.am Nom.m 2am.NN ovo.oz was.“ 0mm.¢ woo.m Nwo.N m¢-mw omo.¢m -- : oNo.NN www.92 zoo.m ww~.v 2mm.m Nwo.~ wv-pe <2 <2 <2 <2 <2 <2 <2 <2 <2 :1 3. : __ www.m wmo.NN NeN.om own.2 ~m¢.m 00¢.m a22.m s¢-mv : .. omw.o mao.2m som.ow ham.2 Hom.m woe.m 222.m m¢-ee : _. aw2.e moo.2N kw~.ou w¢¢.2 wma.m _. w22.m w¢-me : ._ Nem.m www.2w oww.os wee.~ oz».m Nom.m m22.m m¢-m+ ; .. mom.¢ nom.2N mam.w2 woo.u mow.m emo.m 2m2.m «$-2e : .. mow.w mo>.2m Noo.oz oas.~ oom.m mmo.o emz.m ze-oe : .. +2M.+ 2No.2N o~n.w2 2mN.N mmo.m wmz.o mm2.m ow-omoz www.mm n.um .wu.e «2w.om Nom.w2 Nam.m oww.m ”02.0 ooo.m Asmagm>mv $-me mmhud UCMmSOflu Cum Ow PMIOMQA M2 22 oz 0 w a o m a a mQ/Ozmlm mo 7% 0 0L "VJ w OUCO w % F 2.50m ms>023h~ HGQHHSU COwumkszSDU mohaaw UUHHOQOMH WANG? ”VJ m % w. .HOU CNSH. Guam.) NOM< ucophdu mCfiUDAUXH HOV MASH umOMOrmn QOZ mwh< JOU mahda 0L0: IwuHDU uoz UCNWH COBB.) Izm>< #02 130% @020 cBom mega» ufifidocD HMHOH. may»? HNHOH. hmfiuo peupoaom mon< €32-03. cfiflxmm “mam E m3< .6 20335330 - H szmmm< .oounwm: .cmammxmnw “new :2 maohnv 3&3:an .3 ouo< pom UETW pcm £05,260an 60.3% .cmummxmnm mo uCOrCChPyoO .onSESonxw Mo .».S.nEE>~ A“; .owuomoL £2ch Cw wQOpO Entering mo mcumecflmm £3sz Go HCQECLO>OO .cpsfisfipwafl mo .Cumifiz A: ”oondom 6O mm... .3 2mm .3. owo .3. E.» .3 @313 m: .0” NS .3 30.8 Sec: 8.2... :33. 2; NE in own 93 23 oz. 8833. m2: mos, m2: m2: woa m2 2: Se ow om op a» S. E 9.. £500 mmm.2 omo.. 2wa.m wwm.2 owm.w som.~ m22.u ossm of of i: of of 32. E2 EsEamom 2+ SQ N3 03 m3 mg 3m 3332 7.2 3am EN mm... Mm... Maw. 03 wmm omm ocmugwsm macaw Elton 20.? 0%.: SN .2 30.2 $0.: maszeoom 2502. SN T: of 0.: S 2 2: 2: E20 295 E .2 9%.: 03.: $6.2 $0.2 30:: waive :33. o: I E 3 3 am 3 Sign 2 m m: m m m o 382 M N N 2 I- _ L pee/om ..u u: i u.. I- I» u: mnmnm on: .C. mo 00 Lo we om Hmo£>> Em .5 m: .8. $0.: $3.: 23...: cows. 39.: 3E uuuuuuuuu mono/w UgmeOLH CH unuunuuuu 3&2: $132 312;: 2.12.2 312.3 210:: 3&2: 8 2-39 mmomo owmho>< 00:02: #:33me “mom 3 mQOnO 28:6:an popcb arid. u 3 XHQZHnmnm/x 61 0222.222.2232 28 3.2.3 is .2... mam .NN of .3. 22.2% 2.1.2 30.8 32:3 mohm 730R. 02 $2 32 £2 22 ._ 22 88:2: 2. m... .1 m... on 2: .32. cm mm mm mm o... .. 2o cosoo 2.2 2:.2 2cm; 2.5.2 $0.“. .. 2.22.2 82% 2.2.2 32 02 £2 :2 .. 22 8:25..QO mom 22$ :2. 32, m3. : 2.2. 2:82.22 .2 2232 MM own. NNN mm“. wwu : 0mm osmopmwsm 03.2. 2% .om £0 .2 2w .2 owm .2 <2 25% 2223882 250.2. com 8.3 20m sow mom <2 23 820 0222:. 222 .2. m2. .2 2s .2 E2 .2 <2 Mom .8 232.5 2.3: um um ow mm 2. : 32 Siam 2 m2 2 a .2 : a 322.22 A ~ A A H .2 N Mme/OH. 2 2 2 2 2E .. -- 3.3mm ca 2.0 3 2. mm : mm 5223 00m .om 2.8.8. mm... .2 2.3.2 802 <2 mom .2. 82.2 ur uuuuuuu monu< pcmmdozh. CH uuuuuuuuu 3-2..22 $-32 02.2-2.2 2122 2132 2102.2 312.2 mmozo If poscflcoO a HH XHQZMQnde O22.wm mmo.~m m22.mu n»~.- owo.NN wo2.ww Nmm.+m m+~.¢~ m202u hows: 933 228.0% 022 222 ~02 002 M22 mm2 2m2 2M2 OuquOH. mu on a» on up wn m» mp «we M 2m 2m mm Mm mm mm mm co2fixU mpm.2 wwm.2 mom.2 omN.2 wmo.2 mwN.2 moo Foo.2 mush mw2 om2 wN2 mm2 mm2 2m2 ow2 n+2 ::::mmmm 2...“ Em 222 223 3m 23 mom Sm 22.28222 2 22232 2w” wwN mmm mmm omu wow m N o+~ managnmsm «9+.2N owo.o2 wfim.on mmv.om mmw.o2 «mn.2w pow.mm on2.2m 22m2mwoom_:soe mm2 2w2 om2 m©2 o>2 ©2N mom NON 2cm2o 20m.2m wow.o2 wo¢.ow wow.o~ ono.o2 0mm.2m woN.mN w»o.ou m2mopou2m2oa we 00 pm as mm ow «w 0w 2m2gam » m p o o o O2 O2 mm2m§2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 HNsom 2a2 232 2 2 2 2 2 2 m2hmm wm2 mo 502 mm2 wo mo2 wo wo 2m0222 2m2.2m mwo.o2 mmm.ou mmo.ow oww.m2 0mm.2N o2o.mm www.0N mUflm uuuuuuuu mapum $5255. :2 uuuuuuuuunus oouamml omuwmml wmébml nmnommi omsmmml mmImeL wmummm: mmummm: mnHOZU 28:23:00 - S XHQZmEnH/w .fiu . o .QMSSSUTwaw mo 2.332232 ”cupsom 202: 822 NNE mo: 3:. 2223 £3 2222222502 2302. on 3, 2. 2.2 NN cm. wN 8:20 2.: .522 2.3 $2” NM: 22.23 223.2 2380 2309 E NN mN ON 2 2 ON .3223 m. m 2.. N N 2 N 3232 I: n.. In .... .... .... I: . gawk/Oh an I: I: u: I: nu In mpflmm MN ON 2 22 N2. 2 2 28.2% $3 Noww 23m MN: 20:. £3 2N3 2222:3202 82m uuuuuuuuuu mac» @202 vcmmsonu :fluaxuuu..uu mmuwmg 9:121:22 3113.02 mwumwmi Mwu2w©2 224102122 31.02: 02‘ bMuQMmL mnmomU 3-32 £3332 2mmm :2 380 29222055 20 2528:25an - E xmmzmnmvy 64 com EOEM 32 ON: ON: NZ; OOE 2-NOO ON: 2.22.2255 2309 Nm 5. Nm. Om 2m 2- ESQ 3O.- 2222- ONE O2...» 33 EN» 28.2.5 2892. O2 O2 2 O2 O2 2N .323 N N N N N N 3222 Am: An; A”: Am: An; In nag/Oh 32 32 20.2 32 32 - 2.3.2 N ON N 2 ON 2 285$ 3O» 2.2-: E: 2.: OMS OmNO 2255823 82m ........ mcop wcofi Ucmwsoflfi :2 u--.-:..--...- Nm-2m2 2m-Om2 3,-2.2 3-2-2 2122 3.32 3.32 momu 63:23:00 .. H: XHQZHnwnmxw 03 m 303m 00 232 NNNN OOOO Oi:- 2ONN Ot-O 80» N2-NN 2N2; NORNNNoo-N 230,2- ON NN NN NN 22.- NO E NN. 820 NNNN $22 NNOO ONNN ONE ONO» NNNN NONO 2330 2802- N2 22 N2 2 2 2. O2 O2 $2.8m N 2 N N N N N N 32822 22O 222 232 222 222. 232 222 222 gnaON 2222 32 32 32 32 2o: 32 32 5.9m ON NN NN NN NN ON 2-N 2 28223 NNNO 2N3 NON.» N222 $3 $2 NNNN NNNO 225228202 832 llllll .nzou wcofi US$255- Nils-unusu- OOON2 22-2.2 $-32 222-£2 ON-NN2 NN-2-N2 2-N-NN2 NN-NN2 02920 @vSCSCOU .- HHH XHQZMnmonN- 66 .mmlu do .thfiduflyw2fl mo 2.232232 ”yo-250m ».O 2.» N.N 0.0 N.O 0.0 ».N finmpu N.O 2.N O.N O.N O.» O.N O.N »m22mm N.O2 N.O2 N.» O.O2 O.O2 2.O 2.O ON2NN2 nn nu nn un nu uu nu NMBOW nu nn nn nu In un nn mpflmm N.O 2.» O.N N.O N.N N.» N.» 2m02>2 N.O O.N2 N.N O.22 O.N N.O2 ».O2 2Omcm®2u2ouNm nnnnnnnnnnn mvcsom own.wwwo mvzsm<4»§.nnnunnunnnn ON-NNO2 NN-NNO2 NN-NNO2 NN-NNO2 NN-2NO2 2N-ONO2 ON-ONO2 2: »N-ONO2, .mnzmo oonomo2 £8225 San-2 8.2 £20.20 22:28:22.2 .20 OS< Ba 2223» - >2 x2mzmn2n2< 67 2.» v.0 o.» 0.0 ».0 <2 0.0 EEO N.N ON TN 20 , 0.N <2 NLN Siam 2...N N.0 N.0 N.» 2.2. <2 N.» . _ 3232 II II II II II I.- II hawk/OH. nn un nn un nn nn un m-Hfimmw 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 «.0 <2 0.0 023:3 To 22 N.O2 N.O2 0.2. <2 22.2. 22553202 8:2 nnnnnnnn mvcsoa 0wN.Nw 00 0223232 CH nnunnnnunnu N0n20o2 20n00o2 004%? 3.?va $15.02 $100.02 02100-02 . . mOmU COSCSCOU .- >H XHQZManHdN 0.0 0.0 O.N- w.0 0.0 0.» N.» 0.» £202.00 2.0 NO ».N O0 N.N TN 2.... ON $2.8m wé- 0.0 w;- fi.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N0 ONE: nn nn nu nn nu nu nu nu yak/oh. nn nn nn nn nn nn nu nn .mpfimm 0.0 . 0.0 0.0 5.0- 030 0.0 0.0 _ v.0 paws->2 0.02 0.0. . N.Od 2.: 0.0 .2-.0 0.00 0.0 Avocmvauvvuflm .- nnnnnnnnn mUCSOQ 00m. .M0 00 0022332 .LH nnnnnn .nnun o0n0002 00n®002 004.000 h0n0000 . 00n0000 004-002 $0nm00~ 00nN00~ “HOMO 03:23:00 u >H XHQZManH< MICHIGA STATE UNIV !|| Ill ‘0 1 3 R ITY LIBRARIES [Him annum 4 8258 n "Nil 3 1293