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ABSTRACT METHODS TO DETERMINE THE RELATIONSHIP OF REAL PROPERTY VALUE CHANGE TO FIVE SELECTED URBAN GROWTH VARIABLES by Jan Herman Raad This study was designed to deve10p and test an analytical study procedure which could indicate the relationship of five urban growth variables upon real prOperty value change in Saginaw County, Michigan. The five urban growth variables dealt with in this study were: 1) Soils, 2) Rivers, 3) Transportation, 4) Utilities, and 5) Zoning. Each individual growth variable in turn consisted of a number of sub— parts or sub-growth variables. For example, soils as a major urban growth variable consisted of seven individual soil areas and nine combinations of individual soil areas. Thus a total of sixteen sub- grdwth categories were defined to soils as a major urban growth variable. Component parts of the remaining four major urban growth variables were defined and classified in a similar manner. The next step of the investigation consisted of establishment of land value pattern for each quarter section located in Saginaw County for the years 1955 and 1968. This was accomplished through use of the 1955 and 1968 tax assessment rolls for each governmental unit in the County. The procedure established a 1955 and 1968 mean acre value for each quarter section in the county. In this manner the amount of change in real property value for each quarter section unit was determined between 1955 and 1968. Jan Herman Raad The statistical methods of analysis used were the analysis of variance technique, fixed effects model and the Tukey technique. The statistical techniques required grouping of quarter sections into populations defined by the relative qualitative characteristics of each quarter section unit. Samples drawn from each reSpective population and grouped according to each major growth variable provided the basis for further statistical analysis. First, the analysis of variance technique, fixed effects model was used. This technique determined if significant statistical differences exist between a number of sample groups. However, the technique could not determine where differences occurred, and which of these differences were significant. A second statistical technique known as the Tukey technique was used to indicate where significant differences occurred between sample groups within a major urban growth variable. The technique enabled the ranking of all sub-growth cate- gories defined to a major growth variable from high to low in terms of relative real property value increase. All five urban growth vari— ables were thus analyzed as separate sections. The results of the analysis was then depicted and illustrated as a comprehensive whole in Table and Map form. The following conclusions could then be drawn from the overall investigation: 1. Significant increases in real pr0perty values between 1955 and 1968 have taken place. These increases could be attributed to the qualitative attributes of each sub-growth variable defined to a major urban growth variable. Jan Herman Raad 2. A close correlation was found between the intensity of the land use pattern and the degree of real prOperty value change. The more intensive the adjacent or existing land use pattern the higher the relative degree of real property value change. 3. The degree of real property value change seemed to be more closely correlated with the access and availability of man-made im- provements than the natural constraints for development imposed by adverse physical features of the landscape. METHODS TO DETERMINE THE RELATIONSHIP OF REAL PROPERTY VALUE CHANGES TO FIVE SELECTED URBAN GROWTH VARIABLES By Jan Herman Raad A THESIS Submitted to Michigan State University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE Department of Resource DevelOpment 1970 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I wish to express my sincere appreciation to the following persons who have assisted and made possible the preparation of this thesis: To Mr. Martin Cramton, Jr., Director of the Saginaw County Metropolitan Planning Commission for his permission to use the raw data required for this study and for the use of various maps and materials included in the text of this thesis. To Dr. Milton Steinmueller and Dr. Clifford Humphreys, my academic advisors, for their patience, suggestions and encourage- ment given during the preparation of this study, and throughout my Masters program. Also, I wish to express my appreciation to David R. Neédham for his constructive editorial assistance in the preparation of this thesis. And lastly, to my wife, June. Without her assistance and en- couragement this thesis could not have been completed. ii TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ................................................... ii LIST OF TABLES ..... . ............................. ................. vi LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS .. ........ . ............... ................... 111 Chapter I. INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND.... ............... ............. 1 Introduction The Problem Definition of Terms Used General Plan of Investigation Assumptions Hypothesis Stated II. REVIEW OF LITERATURE ..................................... . 18 Historical Theoretical Basis of Development Influences on Land Values Application of Economic DevelOpment Theory to Real Property Values Utilization of Economic Development Considerations to Land Use Planning Summary III. PROJECT DESIGN ................. ........................... 34 Study Area Basis for Selection Location and Size TOpography Soils Climate Drainage Scenery Relationship of Physiographic Features to Economic Development Socio-Economic Characteristics of the Study Area Composition of the POpulation Economic Base of Saginaw County Labor Force Study Methodology Conceptual Framework Development of Study Technique Area Unit of Analysis Establishment of Real Property Value Pattern iii IV. V. Method of Statistical Analysis Step Step Step Step Step Step One - Sampling Techniques Two - Tabulation Three - Description of Technique Four - Summarization of Sums of Squares and Mean Squares Five — Computation of F. Ratios Six - Further Statistical Analysis — Description of Tukey Technique. RESULTS OF THE INVESTIGATION .............. ...... ....... .. 69 Physiographic Features Soils Delineation of Soil Areas Into Sample POpulations Sampling Results Rivers and Streams Cass River Flint River Shiawassee River Tittabawassee River Bad River Sampling Procedures Results Utilities Delineation of Sample Populations for Utility System Components Sampling Procedures Results TranSportation Zoning LIMITATIONS, Delineation of Sample Populations for Transportation System Components Sampling Procedures Results Delineation of Sample Populations for Zoning Categories Sampling Procedures Results SUMMARY, CONCLUSIONS .. ....... . ....... ....... 116 Study Limitations Summary Highest Increase of Real Property Values 1955-1968 80113 Rivers Utilities Transportation Zoning iv Second Highest Increase of Real Property Values 1955-1968 Soils Rivers Utilities Transportation Zoning Third Highest Increase of Real PrOperty Values 1955-1968 Soils Rivers Utilities Transportation Zoning Fourth or Lowest Increase of Real Property Values 1955-1968 Soils Rivers Utilities Transportation Zoning Conclusions BIBLIOGRAPHY ................................... . .............. 139 Table 10. ll. 12. 13. 14. 15. l6. 17. LIST OF TABLES Developed and Undeveloped Land Use Categories in Saginaw County . ............ .......... ...... . ........ Population Distribution to Land Use Categories ......... Population Change in Saginaw County, 1955-1967 ......... 1967 Employment Distribution by Sector for the United States, the State of Michigan, and Saginaw County ...... Sample Format Used in Saginaw County Tax Assessment Rolls Sample Format Depicting Quarter Section Real PrOperty Values ........ . ........................................ Sample of Grid Real Property Value Pattern ............. Computation of Data Into Sample Populations ... ......... Two-Way, Fixed Effects Model, Analysis of Variance Test Computation of Tukey Factor ....... . ............... ..... Use Rating Scale for Soils Area Map ................... . Summed 1955 and 1968 Real PrOperty Values for Each SOil SUb—GI'OWth variable oooooo o ooooooooooooooo o o o o o o o o o Squared 1955 and 1968 Real PrOperty Values for Each Soil Sub-Growth Variable .......................... ..... Analysis of Variance: Computed F. Ratios - Soils ...... Real Property Value Increase of Soil Areas and Soil Area Groupings by Rank Value 1955-1968 ........... ...... Summed 1955 and 1968 Real Property Values for Entire Sample of Quarter Sections Traversed by Rivers ......... Squared 1955 and 1968 Real Property Values for Entire Sample of Quarter Sections Traversed by Rivers ......... vi Page 41 44 45 54 55 56 61 66 68 74 77 78 80 88 88 Table 18. 19. 20. 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. 26. 27. 28. 29. Page Analysis of Variance: Computed F. Ratios - Rivers ..... 89 Summed 1955 and 1968 Real Property Values for Quarter Section Samples Serviced by Utilities .................. 94 Squared 1955 and 1968 Real PrOperty Values for Quarter Section Sample Serviced by Utilities ...... . ....... ..... 95 Analysis of Variance: Computed F. Ratios — Utilities .. 95 Functional Classification Standards of Highways ........ 102 Summed 1955 and 1968 Real Property Values for Trans- portation Quarter Section Samples .... ........... ....... 103 Squared 1955 and 1968 Real Property Values for Trans- portation Quarter Section Samples ................ ...... 103 Analysis of Variance: Computed F. Ratios - TranSportation 104 Summed 1955 and 1968 Real Property Values for Quarter Section Samples by Zoning Category ...... ..... .......... 111 Squared 1955 and 1968 Real Property Values for Quarter Section Samples by Zoning Category ..................... 112 Analysis of Variance: Computed F. Ratios - Zoning ..... 112 Summary Ranking of Real PrOperty Value Increase - 1955-1968 ................................... ........... 119 vii LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS Figure Page 1. Map Showing the Location of Saginaw County .......... 36 2. Map Showing Areas Economically Unsuitable for Development ...................... ........ . ........ .. 39 3. Saginaw County Land Use Pattern ..... ...... .......... 43 4. Saginaw County Soil Areas ........ . .......... ........ 75 5. Soils Area Real PrOperty Value Increase ....... ...... 31 6. Saginaw County River System .............. . ..... ..... 83 7. Real PrOperty Value Increase of Areas Traversed by Streams 00...... ........... ......OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO 91 8. Utilities Service Area Real PrOperty Value Increase . 97 9. Functional Highway Classification System for Saginaw County .. ................. . ................. . 101 10. Trafficways Real Property Value Increase ........ .... 106 11. Intensive Use Zoning — Saginaw County ............ ... 110 12. Zoning Pattern Real Property Value Increase ... ..... . 115 13. Overall Saginaw County Real Property Value Increase 1955—1968 ..... . ................... . ..... ............ 120 viii CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND Introduction The migration to metropolitan areas, natural growth within and movement from the central city to the suburbs have placed a ring of new development around existing urban centers. This new urban growth has taken place in response to many different factors and variables, some physical, others cultural and social. One common aspect to this new growth is the demand for land. As was pointed out by Barlow:l "Few relationships in life are more fundamental or more significant than that between man and land. Our natural resource environment or land as the economist knows it is necessary for human survival. It provides us with standing room, with living space, with food, and with the vast array of raw materials we use in the satisfaction of our many wants." It is in the satisfaction of these wants that a land use pattern has evolved over time, and is continuing to evolve in order to accom- modate the increasing needs of a growing population. The evolution of the land use pattern created by man through his efforts and in- genuity has been one of constant speculation and study. Despite the torrent of literature and study approaches generated by the academic disciplines of geography, anthropology, economics and 1Raleigh Barlowe, Land Resource Economics. (Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey, Prentice Hall, Inc., 1958), p. l. political science in attempting to explain the spatial structure of the land use pattern, minimal effort has been devoted to devel- oping new workable analytical techniques which can readily be used and applied to field situations by the land use planner in his every- day working environment. For the most part, theoretical exPlana- tions on the spatial structure of the evolving land use patterns cannot be applied or tested in the working environment within which the land use planner finds himself. This can be attributed to the complexity of observable factors, and to the diversity and range of factors or land use determinants which govern urban growth and deveIOpment. As Downs put it:1 "Defining the most likely forms of urban growth requires an inherently subjective and arbitrary selection of a few combinations of key factors out of thousands of possibilities. Urban development and growth involves dozens of important variables, each of which could reasonably take on several different future values. Some of these variables are: 1. Location of new growth in relation to existing metro- politan areas. 2. Contiguity of new growth to smaller existing commu- nities located beyond the continuously built—up portions of metropolitan areas (including outside such areas). 3. Type of planning control. 4. Level of quality standards required in new constructions. 5. Degree of public control over new urban development. 6. Degree of public subsidy for new urban development. 1Anthony Downs, "Alternative Forms of Future Urban Growth in the United States," XXXI Journal of the American Institute of Planners, (January, 1970), 3. 7. Distribution of housing subsidies among various income groups. 8. Degree of social class integration. 9. Degree and nature of racial integration. 10. Mixture of transportation modes. Just considering these ten variables, and several arbitrarily chosen values for each one, yields at least 93,322 logically possible combinations--each representing a potential form of future urban growth." Additionally, the interrelationships which exist between a wide array of observed cultural, political, economic, and social forces are not easily discernible or separated from each other. As a consequence, many theoretical explanations in regard to the nature and basis of the evolving land use pattern tend to reduce themselves to nothing more than systematic statements or hypotheses on how any given area, actually functions and grows. These statements or hypotheses can never be proved correct and usually defy all efforts to prove them wrong. Thus, the land use planner must rely on, by necessity, a limited base of available information on the force and variables--human and physical--which tend to shape the land use pattern in his particular area of concern. Despite these inherent limitations of full and complete knowledge and the required resources to apply the selected aspects of developed theoretical approaches to practical field situations, the land use planner must develOp and promote development preposals for a future land use pattern which are economically feasible and politically palatable to the public he serves. It is in his attempts to promote his plan 1Britton Harris, "Plan or Projectionf," Journal of the American, Institute of Planners, XXVI, (November, 1960), 268. proposals to guide the evolving land use pattern that the need for a workable analytical technique to gauge the consequences of his plan proposals become more and more evident. The acceptance and eventural implementation of his plan pro- posals will, in the end, ultimately depend on not only a documentation of need, but also on tools of analysis used as a basis for the develOp- ment of plan prOposals designed to guide and shape the future land use pattern. Any land use planner, then, should have at his disposal a wide range of analytical techniques which can more fully document and substantiate the basis for plan proposals. The Problem As already indicated, the growth and development of any area takes place in response to many different forces and influences. These forces and influences tend to find their basis in a number of inter-related land use determinants. To the land use planner, many of these deter- minants and influences are evasive, extremely complex in nature, and even more difficult to manipulate in real life in order to shape and guide an emerging land use pattern which will be in the long range interest of the community which he serves. Despite many noble notions, such as the furtherance and well being of the public interest or the public welfare, many land use decisions are made on an everyday basis which funds their sole justification on a tangible economic basis, i.e. an increase in the local tax base, rather than the intangible non- economic aspects of the overall physical environment, such as aesthetics and social connotations. The emphasis placed on economic considerations in land develOpment activities can be considered a primary determinant for the evolving land use pattern in any given area in real life. In his classic study, Hoyt provided a systematic demonstration that land values influence land use, and conversely that the existing land use pattern influences land values. Hoyt also demonstrates that the pattern of land use, intensity of use and land values are strongly inter-correlated.1 In essence, Hoyt's study tends to substantiate classic land economics theory in that the users or developers of land bid for sites in accor- dance with the sole economic develOpment criteria of maximum profits and minimum costs. Hoyt also provided a systematic empirical demonstration that land value patterns bear a close relationship to the land use pattern of an area. Additionally, his study also confirmed the fact that as the pattern of land value changes, the pattern of land uses also changes. Duane Knox, in his study of TOpeka, Kansas, tested the relationship of land to several assumed characteristics of land use.2 Knox's study results substantiate the findings of Hoyt's study on the land values in Chicago. His study and Hoyt's early work indicate that the intensity of land uses will change as land values change. Both studies demon- strate that a clear interrelationship exists between the pattern of land use, land use intensity, and land values. 1Homer Hoyt, One Hundred Years of Land Values In Chicago, (University of Chicago Press, 1933). p.449. 2Knox, Duane 5., Distribution of Land Values in TOpeka, Kansas, Lawrence Center for Research in Business, The University of Kansas, (May, 1962). p.34. The functional implications of these relationships for the land use planner, as described by Knox and Hoyt, are readily discernable, as in— l dicated by Chapin. "The Structure of land values in the urban area has a very considerable influence on the way in which individuals seek to use land for various purposes in various locations and at various densities. The planner cannot proceed in land use planning studies without taking into account value—use relationships of urban land. The repeated approaches to planning commissions for the rezoning of corner lots for filling stations and continual requests of all kinds 0f re- zoning requests from one category to another to a higher category are manifestations of urban land market forces." The reduction of costs and maximization of profits from any given site is thus dependent upon not only the normal operating market forces, but also can generally be related to the comparative advantage of one site or location over another site. Barlowe notes that: "Comparative advantage is frequently thought of in terms of natural advantages, such as favorable soils and tOpography. With this approach, it is easy to assume a static situation in which some areas are for particular uses and in which their successful use for these purposes is more or less guaranteed. But the content of comparative advantage is far more dynamic than this. It is affected to a considerable extent by human judgement and by man—made decisions and policies. And in the final analysis it must be measured in terms of the economic ability of an area to complete with other areas in the production of given products. This means that it involves not only favorable climate, soils, and topography but also, favorable location and transportation costs and favorable institutional arrangements." The land use planner in his plan proposals to accommodate future growth and development tends to touch on many different facets of the principle of comparative advantage. Plan prOposals for an expanded transportation system, utility system, and zoning prOposals all tend 1Chapin, Stuart F. Jr., Urban Land Use Planning (Urbana: University of Illinois Press, 1965), p.330. 2Barlowe, pp. 246. to increase or decrease the economic value in terms of economic develop- ment potential of any given number of sites. If the land use planner's prOposals gain an acceptance through formal adoption by the local planning commission and governing body, each specific prOposal, when actually implemented, will either increase or decrease the comparative advantage of one site over another in terms of economic development potential. Viewed primarily from an economic vieWpoint, each major plan pro- posal, especially those requiring extensive public expenditures, coupled with the inherent advantages and limitations of the landscape would either decrease or increase the potential economic return. Thus, the pattern of land values of a given unit of land is affected by the pro- posed development activity. Thus, the land use planner's concern in guiding the existing and molding the future use of land through various plan proposals in the public interest tends to exert, not only a definite influence on the economic development potential of a given area, but also will influence the pattern of land values. The effect of land use development pro- posals developed by the land use planner is somewhat ameliorated by the physiographic features of the landscape. Physical features such as flood plains, streams, and soil fertility also tend to play an important aspect in the pattern of land values and more indirectly in the use made of the area. A floodplain located within an urban area may repre- sent the only large open land in the area, but yet remain undeveloped due to high economic costs involved in developing the floodplain to a higher use. The various land use development proposals, along with the inherent physical contraints of the physical landscape would indirectly, through an increase or decrease in the real prOperty value, determine the po- tential use and intensity of the site, and in this manner influence the potential land use pattern of a given area. The economic impli- cations of plan prOposals such as the site of required public expendi- tures required to implement portions of the adopted plan, tend to be the sole consideration for approval or disapproval by policy makers. Despite the use of economic criteria by the public policy makers in their land use deliberations, the land use planner employed by these public policy makers as representatives of the overall community, is not concerned with increasing or decreasing the tax base or placing a primary concern on economic development activities. Adams identifies and delineates five basic concerns of the land use planner. 1. Guide the use of land to promote the advantageous development of the community. 2. Curb the misuse of land so that it will not in— juriously affect the interests of the community. 3. Prevent the abuse of land. 4. Regulate the non-use or disuse of land. 5. Guide the reuse of land for more appropriate purposes. 1Charles Adams, et a1. Urban Land Problems and Policies, Housing and Town and County Planning Bulletin No. 7, (New York: United Nations, 1953), P. 34. The basic concern reflected in these five points can be reduced to simply the ultimate goal of creating a future land use arrangement that is most efficient and least costly to the community. This emphasis tends to diminish the urban develOpment process as an economic phenemenon. As Dyckman notes, "...the planner is professionally sensitized to values which are frequently non-economic."l In his attempts to create a land use arrangement that is most efficient to the larger community, the land use planner tends to diminish the importance of economic forces- These forces allocate Space in both quantitative and locational aSpects to various uses according to supply and demand relationships and at a least cost concept in an economic equilibrium system. This orientation by the land use planner, in terms of economic im- plications of develOpment prOposals to guide future growth and develop- ment, cannot be termed as a lack of awareness. Indeed, the economic implications of any plan, either prOposed or about to be implemented, are brought to his immediate attention by the public at large in any public hearing, and through his daily review of rezoning requests and proposed private development activities. The problem of the land use planner regarding both the develop- ment of plan proposals and the review of private development requests is the lack of an analytical technique which can gauge in a systematic and analytical manner the economic implications of proposed develOpment activities on the land use pattern. There seems to be no lack in the number of study techniques which can discern the effect of one major develOpment consideration, i.e., a transportation network. 1John W. Dyckman, "What Makes Planner's Plan?," Journal of the American Institute of Planners, XXVII, (May, 1961), p.165. 10 However, there seems to be a lack of a pragmatic technique which can distinguish and make a differentiation on the economic implications of the many different types of streets and highways which, as sub-parts, collectively constitute the overall transportation system. Additionally, many of the theoretical explanations made in regard to the economic consequences of singular major plan proposals do not easily lend themselves to ready duplication in an everyday working situation. Often the theoretical situation is based on a set of Cir- cumstances or an ideal situation which is rarely, if ever, found in any given planning area. Moreover, the variation and differences which exist between planning areas in terms of any given set of in- fluences and variables is rarely identical between two different areas. The problem facing the land use planner who attempts to gauge the economic consequences of development proposals and the effect of existing physical features upon the land use pattern, is the lack of a technique or analytical method to objectively discern and distinguish between growth influences. As a consequence, many plan proposals are based on subjective criteria and generally have been based on a number of proven techniques, which have evolved over time. In general terms, the bulk of these techniques available and readily usable by the land use planner tend to be a curious patchwork of devices, the outgrowth of special purpose efforts which were develOped and firmly established with much travail. 1Chapin, p.280. ll Commonly, the techniques often used by planners in regulating the existing land use pattern and guiding the future land use pattern con- sist of extensive documentation which generally attempts to justify a specific recommended course of action. Techniques referred to in this context include the overworked zoning ordinance, the capital improvements program, the open space plan, a trafficways plan, and a land use plan; often these plans are then neatly packaged into one overall comprehensive develOpment plan which depicts an ultimate proposed land use configuration based upon a stated set of development goals and objectives. While the various components of the overall land use develOpment plan constitute a valid guide to the policy makers for future development, little or no attention is given to the economic consequences or implications of the various plan proposals. This can particularly be attributed to the generalized nature of plan proposals where minimal differentiation is made between the many sub—components which collectively constitute one major class of type of prOposal. For instance, a public utilities system is composed of four or five different sub-systems: sewer, water, gas, electricity, and telephone. Each different sub-component of the overall utility system, due to differential characteristics and locational requirements, will also tend to differ in terms of its effect on the land value pattern and thus on the intensity of the land use pattern. The same applies to proposals pertaining to the overall transportation network. An overall traffic system consists of a number of streets and highways; portions of these streets and highways tend to differ from each other in design standards and traffic volume capacity. The same is true for zoning ordinances which due to different restrictions between 12 zoning districts will tend to differ from each other in terms of their individual influence on the land value pattern. If a land use planner, through a technique, could rank in order the sub—classifications of a major urban growth variable according to differential effects on land values and thus on the intensity of land use, he would have a more ob- jective and less subjective basis for selected plan proposals. Addi- tionally, he would strengthen his basis for discussion with dissenting groups. There is as yet no technique, to the researcher's knowledge, which can distinguish between the different economic influences of sub-units in a major urban growth variable such as zoning, utilities, or traffic- ways, on the land value pattern. Lacking such a technique, the land use planner diminishes his rationale or basis for an objective and realistic justification for his plan proposals in a language familiar to private developers. In many instances land use planners have little use for new techniques which may possibly discredit the validity of commonly used working methods and techniques. In their fight for professional recognition some land use planners have had to rely primarily upon an emotional reaction against gross inefficiency and the mistakes of past generations. However, this in no way dispels the need for new approaches and techniques in the planning process. Dyckman reinforces this assertion with the following observation: "The lags that threaten to impede planners, come from two directions, one technical and the other 'cultural'. The lag of planners in accomodating to certain ad- vances in analytic techniques, subject and method Specifications and new instruments is highly visible, 13 and to some extent from failure to keep abreast of the import of changing scientific views and fresh concepts is in the long run potentially more dangoring to planning.”1 The SCOpe of this study is then two—fold. The firstis to develop an analytical study method; a technique which can be applied to field sit- uations. The second, the use of the study method to discern the effect of sub—classifications of five selected major growth variables upon land values over a thirteen year period. Definition of Terms Used Major_U:b§BM§rowth Variablg: Refers to one Specific type of factor which exerts a guiding or shaping influence on the land use pattern. The nature of the influence is relatively broad, but has a Clearly defined set of characteristics which are unique and not part of any other influence. Sub-Growth Variable: Represents each individual part of a major urban growth variable, i.e., a public sewage diSposal system would be considered a sub-variable to the overall utilities system which would be termed as a major urban growth variable. Land Use Pattern: Refers to the distribution of human activity, features, and appurtenances upon the landed portion of the earth's surface. Real Property VaIue: As used in this investigation, refers to the combined value of the site, and the human improvements made to the site. ..__—”_..-“ _.—--_——.-.--‘- -<-. —.->— 1Dyckman, pp. 243. 14 Also included are any other factors which influence and affect the value of the site or area. This includes locational features, fertility rates, and the other natural physical attributes which influence the value affixed to a site, parcel or area. In this study, the terms "real property value” as defined by state law and "market value" are interchangeable and considered the same. lptensity of Land Use: Refers to the extent and degree a given site is used for primarily urban land uses. General Plan of Investigation This study is designed to develOp and test an analytic technique which has the capability to assess the differential effects of various sub-units of a major urban growth variable upon the patterns of real prOperty values. A second objective of the study is to apply the developed study technique to five selected urban growth influences in order to discern the influence of these five urban growth influences and the respective sub-variables of each major urban growth influence upon real property values over a thirteen year period. Assumptions:- The design and execution of the study have been based on the following assumptions: 1. Saginaw County will ultimately be primarily developed for urban use. This urban develOpment will take place in response primarily to current and future expectations of economic returns which may be gained from the land 15 and the highest potential use which may be made of the land. These future expectations will be expressed pri— marily through the market value or real prOperty value of any given site or area. 2. Land as space, or as a site tends to increase in economic value due to the possible or expected conversion to a higher economic use of the land. 3. Land either develOped or undeveloped for urban use re— quires either the presence or availability of a set of physical characteristics or human improvements which tend to deter or enhance the real prOperty value of a given area. 4. Past effects of the five defined growth variables over a thirteen (13) year period will continue to exert the same relative degree of impact on real prOperty values in the future if existing trends continue. 5. Real prOperty values are indicative of the existing in— tensity of land use or the intensity of use in which any given site or parcel will be placed. The higher the real property value of any given parcel as reflected through the intensity of use made of the parcel, site, or area. An argument can be made that a study of this nature is not necessary and that the consequences or effects of any selected number of growth variables upon real property values are readily discernible between two time periods through increases of tax assessment rolls, or through 16 the relative increase of the more intensive land use categories made in a given area after certain characteristics of the site or area were altered or modified. However, comparative methods of this nature tend to be subjective and cannot distinguish the effect of various sub-types upon real property values within a major growth variable. In other words, an increase of assessed property tax evaluation, or an increase of more intensive land use categories in a given area which can be discerned by comparing one time period against another only establishes with certainty that growth or certain land use develop— ment activities has taken place. However, comparison of growth indi- cates between two periods of time cannot attribute the growth and development of a given area to any given cause or influence. The nature and basis of any growth and development determined in a com- parative manner is usually couched on hunches and educated guesses and is usually attributed to one or two broad classification of growth influences, i.e., improved roads or the installation of public sewer. This study seeks to develop and test a technique which will in a systematic manner discern the past economic influence of sub—categories of major urban growth variables upon real property values in an analytical manner. Hupothesis Stated The major hypothesis of this study is that changes in real property values are positively related to the presence of defined urban growth influences. Selected urban growth variables to be used in this study are five urban growth influences which in the planning profession are considered to be prime growth influences, the presence of which will exert an influence on real prOperty values and thus directly influence the intensity of land use. The major growth influences to be used in this study as independent vairables are: 1) Physical features, a) rivers and b) soils; 2) POpu- lation; 3) Utilities; 4) Zoning; and, 5) Transportation. The second hypothesis which is interwoven with the first hypothesis is that various sub-categories of each major growth variable tend to differ in terms of their individual effects on changes in real property values. As no comparable research data or study technique could be located in the review of the literature, a major effort has been made in the development of a primary data base for the study. Through the use of statistical techniques a ranking as to the effect of major and sub- categories of growth influences upon real property values can be obtained. CHAPTER II REVIEW OF LITERATURE In Chapter One, it was suggested that the land use planner does not have at his disposal an adequate analytical technique which can gauge the economic effects of selected plan proposals as related to changes in real property values. This is not to be confused with the approaches that have been made by many academic fields in their explanation as to the basis and origin of the special structure of the land use patterns. It must also be emphasized that no issue is taken with the applicability of the many study approaches and ex— planations developed by the various academic disciplines as they relate to the furtherance of man's knowledge about the use of land and its resources. The primary point which the researcher wishes to make is that for the land use planner to be more objective, he needs additional analy- tical techniques to assist him in gauging the effect of growth vari- ables on real property values in the past. In this manner he can ob- tain the knowledge to more objectively determine the economic effects on future prOposed develOpment activities. Furthermore, as indicated in the foregoing chapter, the evolution of the land use pattern tends to be an unlimited dimension and the end product of an untold number of interrelated forces and variables. For this reason, the basis of the entire study must, by necessity, be l8 l9 formulated and limited to economic explanations of the land use pattern. Implicit is the rationale that economic forces interreact upon locally oriented forces of the land market to determine the use and function of the land. The review of literature indicates a well documented and pre- cise research dealing with the economic aspects of land use and land development. As a consequence, much reviewed literature as pertaining to the study is either indirectly applicalbe or implied. In addition, the volume of past research and documentation related to economic aSpects of land use and land develOpment is so diverse as to make a complete review of literature beyond the scope of this study. For this reason the literature reviewed for this study has been placed into three separate headings: l) Historical—theoretical basis of growth in- fluences as related to real property values; 2) Application of this historical economic development theory to real prOperty values in urban areas; and, 3) Utilization of economic development considerations in land use planning. Historical—Theoretical Basis of Development Influences on Land Values Perhaps the earliest recognition of the relationship of land values to land use was made by Adam Smith in his Hg§l£h_9f_yations, published in 1776.1 In this work, Smith recognized that the economic rent, which may or could be derived from land depended and varied with the fertility of land. He indirectly implied that the value of agricultural land was directly related to the economic rent or income which could be derived from a given parcel of land. 1Adam Smith, Wealth of Nations, (London, 1776: Modern Library Edition; New York, Random House Inc., 1937.), pp. 23. 20 David Ricardo, in the beginning of the eighteenth century, expanded on this theory by presenting a treatment of economic rent for agri- cultural land which yet today can be considered as the foundation of economic rent theory. In that theory, Ricardo stated that the most fertile acres are placed into use first and that land with less fertility is utilized only as the demand or price for agricultural produce in— creases.1 Ricardo's theory states that economic rent on the most fertile land is based on the advantage this fertile land has in terms of pro- duction over the least productive land. Ricardo also recognized that land which is nearer to the market bears a lower transportation cost than land whose products must be transported a longer distance to market. This cost differential of transportation represents an economic ad- vantage to the land which is accrued to the land owner. Ricardo's theory, in explaining economic land rent, is based primarily on the difference in land fertility rates but touches lightly upon the effect of location upon land rent. The location or the transportation factor as related to land rent and thus indirectly to land values, was more fully develOped in 1826 by J. S. Von Thunen.2 Von Thunen based his theory primarily on the relationship of transportation costs to the use or allocation of land. Land closest to the market place will be more economically productive to its owner because of the diminished transportation costs required to move the produce to market. Land located farther from the market place will require higher transportation costs, which must be lDavid Ricardo, On the Principles of Political Economy and Taxgtion, as cited by William Alonso, Location and Land Use, (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1964), p.3. 21bid. _m—v 21 paid from the businesses rent or gain produced by the land. As such, the most distant land in cultivation yields no savings in transportation costs and if the transportation cost is high enough, the land yields no economic rent. In essence, Von Thunen states that the economic rent which can be derived from any location is equal to the value of its produce, less production costs and transportation expenses. The economic approaches formulated by these three noted economists can be considered a primary basis for the conceptualization of the spatial structure in an agricultural society. Essentially, Mills, Ricardo, and Von Thunen view agricultural land develOpment pro- cesses as economic phenomena The dominant factor is the economic land market and the sorting process that the market plays in the allocation of space (land) to activities (use). Although implied, little was said directly about the relationship of land values to land use. However, clear reference was made to the effect of soil fertility, and transportation and location factors upon the economic rent which could be derived from a given parcel of land. All three of these early economists had little to say about urban land and confined themselves primarily to two influences upon the economic rent of agricultural land. Adam Smith indicates nothing about the valuation of urban land, re- marking that urban land is unproductive and the landlord is a monopolist. J. S. Mills viewed urban land as a monopoly problem where the value of a fixed and limited supply of houses and building ground in a "town of definite extent” will be offered.1 One economist, Alfred Marshall 1 John Stuart Mills, Principles of Political Economy, (New York: Longmass, Green, 1934), p.444. devoted one chapter to urban values in his book, "Principles of Economics" (Chapter 11).1 In this chapter, Marshall concerned himself primarily with profit making land uses devoted to commerce and industry. According to Marshall, site value is the price which can be obtained for a parcel of cleared land when sold in the free competitive market. The land site will then be sold to the highest bidder and be placed into a use which will provide the buyer with maximum return. The price of the site and the use of the land are closely correlated and dependent upon each other. Marshall states, ”If land is cheap, he will take much for it; if it is dear he will take less and build high.”2 In his conclusion, Marshall indicates that in urban area the potential uses of land make bids for various sites or locations based on respective locational advantages and the highest bidder obtains the site in each case. Despite their preoccupation with the rent which could be derived from agricultural land, the economic theories developed by these in- dividuals in the 1800's provided a foundation of the theoretical basis for the relationship of selected influences and variables upon land values. Application of Economic Develppment Theory to Real Prgperty Values In his book, ”Principles of City Land Values," published in 1903, R. M. Hurd developed a theory for urban land which closely resembles that of J. 8. Von Thunen for agriculture.3 In essence, Hurd's theory lAlfred Marshall, Principles of Economics, (7th ed; London; MacMillan, 1916), p. 448 2 Ibid., p. 450 3Richard M. Hurd, Principles of City Land Values, (New York; The Record and Guide, 1903), pp. 11—12. 23 of urban land values states that the city growth and development, more remote land must be utilized to accommodate this growth. This in turn creates a price differential between land located close to the city and land more remote from the city. The basic price differential rests primarily on the location of urban land as in- dicated in his summary. Hurd states, "Since land value depends on economic rent, and rent on location, and location on convenience, and convenience on nearness, we may eliminate the intermediate steps and say that land value depends on nearness.”l Hurd's theory expands the economic equilibrium theory in which space or land is allocated in quantitative and locational aSpects to various uses. The least cost aSpect seemed to be attributed pri- marily to transportation costs required to move products to market. Traditionally, location was treated by the early economists as a constant. Robert Haig, in 1926, introduced an innovation in the particular aspect of transportation cost by defining distance as a "friction of space”.2 The better the transportation the less the friction and therefore, transportation costs diminishes with the degree of friction involved in the movement of goods to market. Based on his concept of ''friction of space" Haig states that the 1 1.39.151.) P' 78' Robert M. Haig, "Toward an Understanding of the Metropolis," Quarterly Journal of Economics, (May, 1926), p. 421. 24 layout of an urban area tends to be determined by the collective efforts of prOperty owners to minimize friction of space. Richard M. Ratcliff "...the perfect land market would produce restates Haig's hypothesis; 3 pattern of land uses in a community which would result in the minimum aggregated land value for the entire community. The most convenient arrangement results in the lowest aggregate transportation costs; in terms of saving transportation costs the advantage of more convenient sites are reduced.” Haig attempted to interpret a greater degree of precision in his theory than R. M. Hurd. This attempt represented one more step in the evolution of economic literature in explaining selected facets of both the economic and locational aSpects of land use. From an early pre- occupation with eXplaining economic rent and land use of predominantly agricultural societies, the emphasis beginning with Haig, shifted more and more to urban areas. This can perhaps be attributed to the fact that during the 1920's, city planning as an established profession came into being. In conjunction with an increasing emphasis on city planning, published literature in the field of land economics started to place primary emphasis on urban land values. The principal tenants of urban land values were develOped by Haig in 1926. Utilization of Economic Development Considerations to Land Use Planning Parallel to the establishment of the city planning profession, the academic discipline of human ecology, a branch of sociology, became established. Like land economics, this academic discipline also con- cerned itself with urban land values. 1Richard M. Ratcliff, Urban Land Economics, (New York: McGraw Hill, 1949), P. 385. 25 In essence, the ecologists viewed land values as a result of a bidding process with the pattern of land uses in a city or urban area being estab- lished. As two noted ecologists, Park and Burgess have stated in their book, The Cit , land values are the chief determining influence in the separation of local areas and in the determination of the uses to which an area is put. In this classic study, Burgess, in attempting to explain the ecolo- gical processes of the city, depicted the city as a series of concentric zones. The center zone is the most densely developed with the most inten- sive land uses, while the other four zones represent a gradient in the intensity of land use in terms of human activities. Land values of each consecutive zone were generally related to the intensity of land use. It may be of interest to note that this represented another step in man's attempt to explain the spatial land use pattern in a logical systematic manner. The next step in man's attempt to explain the spatial structure of the urban environment was develOped by Harris and Ullman.2 Both scholars expanded on the work previously done by Park and Burgess and by Homer Hoyt. In their theory, Harris and Ullman, using the conceptual framework of both Burgess and Hoyt attempted to seek the critical explanation of the observed irregularities which were not adequately covered in Burgess's consecutive zone theory. In their study, Harris and Ullman emphasized economic forces which influence the concentration of various land use 1Ernest W. Burgess and R. E. Park, The Growth of the City, (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1925), p. 98. 2 Chauncy D. Harris and Edward L. Ullman, "The Nature of Cities," The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, (November, 1945). P. 49. 26 activities. In essence, Harris and Ullman in their multi-nuclei theory identifies four influences that account for the emergence of separate nuclei in urban land use patterns. These four influences are: 1) Independence of land use activities between each other; 2) A clustering tendency of land uses which tend to enhance each other economically; 3) Land use activities which are inimical to each other, i.e. the utility system they required, etc.; and 4) high land costs which either attract or repel uses. The multiple nuclei concept recognized directly and indirectly the selected growth influences which shape the land use pattern. However, in recognition of the aSpects of land use change, the theory made a limited distinction between factors explaining the land use structure and the dynamics of land use change. As Chapin indicates:1 "...some recognizing the concept probably find their ex- planation primarily in terms of national market forces; others in terms of overcoming friction of space made possible by the automobile, the develOpment of electric power, and other technological advances, and still others in terms of community values and legislative controls such as zoning. Some may be sluggish, and some may be volatile in their reaponse to forces of change. Some may affect surrounding patterns of land use one way and some may affect them in quite another way." Chapin goes on to state that: "If land use patterns by whatever structure theory they are described are the aggregate result of the interplay of the forces of supply and demand acting on the sum total of all land parcels in an urban area, then some means, some intermediate set of Operational generalities that recognize these forces, is needed to serve as a guide in making the transition from economic theory to land use planning principles."2 1Chapin, pp.20. 21bid. 27 It is in the search for the operational generalities as referred to by Chapin that many techniques and studies have been developed to explain, predict and forecast the effect of many influences and vari- ables upon land use. While it is outside the realm of this investi- gation to review the numerous published studies and articles, econo- mic land use development models have a more direct implication and relevancy to the nature of this study. Economic land use development models have been largely based on the various defined economic influences, i.e., location, transportation, soil fertility rates, etc., upon economic land rent and indirectly on the effect of these variables upon land or real prOperty values. Subsequent economic develOpment theories have eXpanded the variables and influences taken into consideration and applied the earlier de— veloped concepts to an urban landscape as compared to the agricultural land use pattern which was the prime concern for Mills, Von Thunen, Ricardo, and others. With the advent of the city planning profession and the land ecologist's school of thought, considerable work has been done to further expand the restraints imposed by selected growth variables, and through manipulation of a number of other defined vari— ables forecast or predict the consequences of a given variable upon the land use pattern. Perhaps the most noted work of this nature is l the book, Transpgrtation and Urban Land, by Lowdon Wingo, Jr. In this book Wingo developed an economic model based on classic equili— brium economic theory, i.e., those who control space and those who lLowdon Wingo, Jr., Transportation and Urban Land, (Washington, D. C.: Resources for the Future Inc., 1961) pp. 14-38. 28 seek Space will each behave to maximize their economic returns. The maximization of economic returns has been based on a set of given variables, i.e., location of employment centers, transportation technology, number of urban households, values placed on location and the marginal value individuals have placed on residential space. These defined variables then form the basis for the economic model to deter- mine the spatial distribution of pOpulation densities and economic rent and the spatial distribution, value, and extent of land required for residential use. The entire model attempts to achieve an equilibrium distribution by establishing a demand schedule which determines the point at which land prices and population densities are in balance. Similarly, William Alonso2 uses the market mechanism to distribute space users to urban land. However, instead of developing a demand function as developed in Wingo's theory, Alonso used bid price curves. Using a featureless plain, and beginning at the center of the city, land is placed on the market or as stated by Alonso, "put up for bid." Beginning at the center, and on the basis of the steepest price bid curve, the highest bidder takes the most central place, the next highest bidder or buyer takes the second most central place, etc. The price paid by the first space user is determined by the price at the marginal location, but for the second bidder what was a marginal location for the first user becomes a location for him with the bid 1;b1d., pp. 50-69. 2William Alonso, Location and Land Use: Towggd a General Theory_pf Land Rent, (Cambridge: The Harvard University Press and John Wiley and Sons Inc., 1964), p. 20. 29 being determined by the price paid at the marginal location for this site and so on. Ira S. Lowry views urban spatial organization as an outcome to a process which allocates activities to sites.1 According to Lowry, in our society this process is mainly one of transaction between owners of real estate and those who wish to rent or purchase space for many different pursuits and activities. Those transactions consist pri— marily of freely entered contracts neither party having a legal obli- gation to accept the other's offer. The interchangeability of those individuals who wish to buy and those who wish to sell commonly defines the market for real prOperty. In the real prOperty market, sellers wish to secure and capi— talize upon combinations of many different inputs of capital, labor and basic improvement. Buyers in turn will attempt to obtain real prOperty which required a minimum of investment in terms of capital and labor and will, over time, produce a profit. Negotiations between buyer and seller are conducted primarily by offer and counter offer. As a result the buyer demand price or real property value is usually a closely guarded secret, while the selling price is usually unstable unless the owner has accurate knowledge of the price or worth of his particular parcel. The "demand price" or real property value tends to differ from site to site and from area to area. This difference in real property value is based upon an evaluation function which weighs and determines the 1Ira S. Lowry, "Seven Models of Urban Development: A Structural Comparison," The Rand Corporation, (November, 1963), p. iiv. 30 relative merits and advantages of each site or area in view of obtaining a profit.1 As such, the evaluation function represents a determi- nation of the relative merits of the site or area under consideration. Some of these characteristics are fixed and an integral part of the site; others are not. Fixed attributes can be related pri- marily to natural and locational features, while the non-fixed or free attributes are related to an input or availability of man-made and institutional attributes. The nature of the characteristics used for the determination of locational attributes by Lowry is a primary determinant for the evaluation function used by buyers and sellers on the Open market. As improvements are made to a site, establishments re— evaluate the sites and as a consequence the market may again be altered and changed. Lowry implicitely recognized the fact that the attributes and variables attached to each individual site are a primary factor in the value and utility of the site. The basic evaluation concept of site values as formulated by Lowry has been incorporated to a certain extent into selected complex economic land use develOpment models used in comprehensive land use planning studies. Primarily, these land use models have been based on various indices and forces which have been recognized as regulating development activities. Many different models have been develOped which tend to mathematically manipulate and rearrange the many different factors which influence the market evaluation function as discussed by Lowry. However, it is out- side the realm of this investigation to evaluate the mathematical basis 'ibid., pp. viii. 31 of models similar to Wisconsin's. The first distributes households on the basis of employment; characteristics obtained in this fashion are applied to employment estimates at centers of basic employment to arrive at the residential distribution of this employment. The results of this first model is the formation of overlapping patterns of pOpulation densities generated from the employment centers. The second model is developed on travel indices for four types of re- tail uses and other land uses according to traffic types. By re— lating these indices to the new population generated, a distribution of various employment centers is obtained. The Penn-Jersey Transportation Study Model depicts households seeking to fulfill their housing needs and desires in the market place with location decisions based on costs attached to obtaining housing as compared to budgets. The model assumes that households will have full knowledge of the market and recognizes four factors: 1) A type of house; 2) An amenity level; 3) An accessibility combination; and, 4) Site size. Households with perfect knowledge of the market will attempt to maximize their rent paying ability and minimize their total rent within market constraints. The model as a basis for formulation re- quires a sampling survey of households to establish preference on housing type and amenity level and site soil. The information re- quired to construct this and other models would require extensive field surveys and interviews. An additional model for forecasting residential growth was 1 developed by Thomas G. Donnelly. In this model, a metropolitan area 1Thomas G. Donnely, F. Stuart Chapin, Jr., and Shirely F. Weiss, A Probabilistic Model for Residential Growth, (Institute for Research in Social Science, University of North Carolina, May, 1964), p. 10. 32 with its particular configuration of uses, community facilities, trans- portation systems and pattern of vacant land is assigned a structure of existing land values. The computer then consults a plan and notes the locations of public improvements and employment centers expected to develop in a given growth period. Land values are often increased in accordance with the eXpected effects of new improvements on the existing pattern of land values. Having reassessed the land values pattern, a development—redevelOpment pattern is set in motion. Areas of pre- established densities with a pre-determined alternative for development along with household units available for this growth period are distri— buted by a random process. During the next develOpment or growth period any changes in land value rates expected due to new policies and technological changes are introduced in the computer program. The plan is committed again to the computer, scheduled improvements noted and the land again re-evaluated in view of planning improvements. This process is continued to the end of the planning period at which time a pattern of probable residential development is depicted. These foregoing brief discussions on four selected land development models have been based primarily on selected aspects of the economic development process which directly or indirectly tend to reflect on the relationship of land development and improvement towards land values. In addition, those techniques to indicate a future land use pattern tend to have the following common characteristics: 1. Require extensive field surveys and data collection procedures to formulate required background data for the formulation of a land use development model. 33 2. Require extensive elements of time and staff capabilities and computer equipment which are often beyond the reach of a small planning office. The resources and details required to develop models which can pre- dict the consequence of selected develOpment activities upon the probable intensity of land use and land values tend to preclude their application in a public planning office having limited resources. This further tends to emphasize a need for the develOpment and application of an analytical technique which can serve as a decision making tool to a comprehensive land use planning program with limited resources. Summary The objectives of this study as compared to the reviewed literature or the study tepic have areas of implied similarities and application. Primarily, the reviewed literature emphasized the effect of a given set of variables as a causal agent of land use change. The emphasis of the reviewed literature stresses prediction and attempts to foresee a prob- able land use pattern given stated growth influences and variables. This study will be founded on the economic development concepts em- bodied in the reviewed literature and generally will attempt to indicate a probable land use intensity pattern, through the past effect of five growth influences upon real property value change of Saginaw County. To maintain the relative applicability of the study technique and method to actual field situations, the methods used in this study will be less sophisticated than the methods briefly described. CHAPTER III PROJECT DESIGN The objective of this chapter will be to review and outline the study methodology used in this investigation. In order to provide a complete overview of the entire study, this chapter has been divided into three major parts. First, the study area as the base of the study will be defined and discussed. Secondly, the basis of the study methodology of the investigation will be defined. Thirdly, the study techniques used and applied throughout the study will be explained in outline form. Study Area Basis for Selection Saginaw County, Michigan was selected as the study area for this investigation. The bases for selection of Saginaw County were as follows: 1. The researcher was employed as a full time professional planner by the Saginaw County Metropolitan Planning Com- mission from December, 1968 to March, 1970. During this period of employment the researcher was assigned the basic task of develOping a base of pertinent information for the Comprehensive Land Use Transportation Planning Program. 2. Inasmuch as the County Planning Commission had been in Operation for only two years, an adequate information base for the development of a Comprehensive Land Use 34 35 Development Plan was not available. This required basic land use data as an input into a Land Use Plan. The lack of available up-to-date information required extensive field studies and review of available public records for appli— cable planning information. 3. As an employee of Saginaw County, and as a resident of the County, the researcher with limited time and funds chose the study area to minimize costs associated with data collection while at the same time further expand upon, and more fully analyze the base of general information gathered in the preparation of generalized land value maps. Location and Size Saginaw County is located in east—central Michigan. The City of Saginaw, the major city in the county, is located approximately 70 miles north of Lansing and 95 miles northwest of the Detroit Metro- politan Area. Figure 1 shows the location of Saginaw County within the State of Michigan. Topography The existing topography of Saginaw County can be attributed to the Wisconsin Glacial Period, some 10,000 years ago.1 When the Wisconsin Glacier entered the Great Lakes basin, it assumed the shape of lobes, each acting independently of the central mass. The thin Saginaw lobe melted faster than the Michigan or Huron lobes and its retreat was rapid, marked only by brief stOps. Because the Saginaw lobe melted 1Saginaw County Metropolitan Planning Commission, Physical Features Study, (Saginaw: Saginaw County Metropolitan Planning Commission, 1967), pp 0 3’6. 36 Figure l SAGINAW COUNTY l in B A Y / | .‘ IKOCHVILLE TWP - -I l e I é«> I I \\ ._ l I M ' D L A N D ‘9 0- I \ ZILWAU , ' IIONESFIELO TWP IRICW‘WO “V" TTHOW‘S TWP ' SAGINAw Twp ’ It ‘ », CARROLLTONJ l 0, TWP. .. I ivy ,- I ., a II I MERRILL I > m I 1 A ‘ V, M W I vs. 49 .‘x "r \\§ '— ——-——- _- '_ ' xix wA MES _—1‘pr ~ ILAKEEIELD TWP mum'" Twp ’ls N on ex TWP ”I 63‘ \J/I “\f _f// *2. 0" \ i J SPAULDING TWP l V... J] o \ ,Inrf' / | I /’ I I- I 9 \l, 4 ‘1' 7‘ k [\lye , I ~:\-¢ .__ __ .__ , BR {/«t; 9‘ _ MAR. T m, |ALaEE TWP. i“: '- 52;, I SICHARLES :I < l l R)_‘l,/;/ I | ”V a, m $93,117 n4} _ _1/ v; ‘9 I " I I I 5.2 {1 l i j \i | ‘ ...-.- _———— ’— -—-. 4—42 BRADY Twp CHESANING TWP' CHAPIN ‘er I ,1 ' 5 cucuumo I I I I __-___I__._ SHIAWASSEE ._..—..__ N9l SCALE m MILES SAGINAW COUNTY METROPOLITAN PLANNING COMMISSION 37 faster than the other glacial lobes, the outlets for melted water were often blocked by ice dams. As a consequence, a large glacial lake was formed behind a major ice dam. When the ice obstructions eventually melted, a flat lake bottom, or lake plain, and a poorly developed drainage pattern remained. A clearly discernible physical remnant of this glacial period is the Shiawassee Wildlife Game Re- serve Area which represents the center location of the glacial lake. In essence, the Saginaw River and its tributaries represent the basic drainage ways which were established when the glacial lake drained into Lake Huron. _S_9.i_18_ The ancient, glacial lake-bed left an extremely large variety of soil conditions in the county. Broad expanses of level, fertile soils laced with an extensive, man—made drainage system predominate the Saginaw County land surface.1 The areas directly adjacent to the metrOpolitan, or urban core of the county are predominantly fertile agricultural areas with an extensive, poorly-drained, and marshy area to the south, which represents the Shiawassee Wildlife Game Refuge Area. Drainage The glacial lake obliterated any natural lakes which may have been formed when the glacier retreated. However, Saginaw County is the point of convergence for six major river systems (Cass, Flint, Bad, Tittabawassee, Shiawassee, and Saginaw). These are of primary impor- tance to the future develOpment of the county. 1United States Soil Conservation Service, A Soil Rating System for Saginaw County, A Report to the Saginaw County Metropolitan Planning Commission, (Saginaw: United State Soil Conservation Service, 1968), pp. 3-7. 38 This total watershed area, drained by the Saginaw River and its tributaries, covers an area seven times the size of Saginaw County. The convergence of these watersheds into one general area, combined with the relatively flat tOpography and low stream gradient (less than one foot fall per mile for the Saginaw River), seriously complicates the drainage and flooding problems of the county.1 This is especially true during periods of heavy run-off. Due to the undevelOped nature of the floodplain, excellent Opportunities remain to guide the future land use within areas subject to flooding in the county. Figure 2 depicts the floodplain areas in the county. County Land Use Pattern Saginaw County with a total surface area of 529,375.7 acres has a total developed land area of 54,410.l acres.2 This total develOped land area includes those land uses devoted directly to urban land uses, i.e., employment, education, public service, and transportation. Re- maining land areas have been classified as undeveloped land use areas, which although not directly related to urban land use, are integrally related and part of the total county land use pattern. The relative distribution of the develOped and undeveloped land use categories in the county is depicted in the following table: 1 Ibid,. p. 20-25. 2Saginaw County Metropolitan Planning Commission, Land Use Analysis, p. 40. 39 Figure 2 523:: 2: 32:32.. 33.3.9: ”:2 22:3 /7 >222” Mir // a _ . ‘ _ o ...... I. ---T . VJI A A o A. W M . . .l .p..- ..IergnL " A”. . . _ . Map 2 40 TABLE 1 DEVELOPED AND UNDEVELOPED LAND USE CATEGORIES Developed Land Use Residential Commercial Industrial Public & Quasi- Public Transportation Total Undeveloped State & Federal Lands Vacant Agriculture Wooded Water & Rivers Total 1 IN SAGINAW COUNTY Z of DevelOped ‘Agggg Area 22,775.8 41.86 1,480.8 2.72 2,733.6 5.02 6,580.5 12.10 20,839.4 38.30 54,410.1 100.00 eggs. 21,298.4 26,271.4 338,098.4 82,736.5 6,580.9 474,985.6 % of Total County Surface Area 4.31 .28 .52 3.93 10.29 Z of Total County Surface Area 4.02 4.96 63.86 15.64 1.24 89.72 or 54,410.10 acres The above table indicates that 474,985.6 acres, or 89.72 percent of the total county area is devoted to undeve10ped uses, such as agriculture, Federal-State lands, and wooded or water areas. Of the lIbid., p. 41. 41 474,985.6 acres of open space uses, the agricultural land use type totals 63.86 percent of all Open Space land uses in the county. DevelOped land area of county surface area totals 10.29 percent or 54,410.l acres and of the 54,4lO.l acres of developed land area, 41.86 percent was devoted to residential uses. The next most signi- ficant develOped land use was transportation, which utilized 38.30 percent or 28,839.4 acres of total develOped land area. Other major amounts of develOped land area were in Public and Quasi-Public land use. The location and intensity of the overall land use pattern in 1967 is depicted by Figure 3. The greatest intensity of land utilization is in the urbanized core, which consists Of the City of Saginaw and the immediate surrounding ten (10) township area. As the distance outward from this urbanized core increases, there is a noticeable reduction of intensity of the use of land. Figure 3 also shows that although present development is scattered, the intensive land use categories providing the county's employment base are largely concentrated within the urbanized core, its immediate fringe areas and in the incorporated areas. The distribution Of pOpu- lation to the seven land use categories is depicted below: TABLE 2 l POPULATION DISTRIBUTION TO LAND USE CATEGORIES Land Use Apres Acres Per 1,900 Population Residential 22,775.8 104.0 Commercial 1,480.8 6.7 Industrial 2,733.6 12.4 1 Ibid,. p. 42. 42 TABLE 2 (Continued) Land Use Acres Acres Per 1,000 Population Public & Quasi- Public 4,212.5 19.2 Transportation 20,839.0 95.1 Open Space 136,887.2 625.0 Agriculture 338,098.4 1,543.8 *Based on the 1967 POpulation or 219,109 persons Source: Saginaw County Metropolitan Planning Commission Land Use Dwelling Unit Inventory Socio—Economic Characteristics of the Study Area In 1960, Saginaw County had a total pOpulation of 190,752 persons. By 1967, the population had increased to 219,311 persons or an increase of 1.9 percent per year since 1960. This compared to a pOpulation in- crease of 2.4 percent between 1950 and 1960 and represented a decline in the rate Of natural increase in the pOpulation.1 This decline re- sulted from a sharp decline in the number of births between 1960 and 1967 (number of births per 1,000 pOpulation) from 27.5 in 1960 to 20.0 in January, 1967. During the 1950's, immigration averaged only 200 persons per year compared with an average of 660 persons per year between 1960 and 1967. Table 3 depicts the relative rate of population change in the county through natural increase and through net in-migration. 1 Real Estate Research Corporation, Estimates and Projections of Economic and Demographic Characteristics, Saginaw CountyJ Michigan, A Report to the Saginaw County Metropolitan Planning Commission, (Chicago: Real Estate Research Corporation, 1969), pp. iv-ll and iV-ZO o 43 Figure 3 4 . lfl~3 .I. o. I ”twins... a); .. a a .. . v . .. ..II. .. ( .m . .. .. .1. . . .I . I ..o .. - . .-.: call.- IIEIII var... .. . . .14..“ . ..L .-...-Luwwafi, ...... .... 1%.... “in“... .. A. . ...v . .4. .. . . 3?...” a...) ... ... «a ..o-. . .. . .1 .. Q a. . .II ...: H.’ .... An. ..I. .. ... d .. . O H s I I . fi.1«~.. .. .3 .. mach. . .C ..Ha 3...)! .. . '10.: . $3.. .93.. . . ”...-.. fin... .o L us... v1.1“ ”0...... oh .9 u o a “K ... , . ... . . . T ... .. .... ...r..« . . .. .. ... ... . ,.... a E; fl .0! g i W Impurwvhwflmwau» . 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MI“! 44 TABLE 3 POPULATION CHANGE IN SAGINAW COUNTY 1950 TO 19671 Live Natural Net Total Births Deaths Increase In-Migration Population 1950-1959 ‘ 49,894 15,382 34,512 2,725 190,752 1960—1967 38.115 14,870 23,245 5,314 219,311 Economic Base Virtually all non-agricultural employment is accounted for by the various plants of General Motors Corporation in the Saginaw area. These plants are engaged primarily in the manufacture of automotive metal castings, steering gear components, braking components, and other auto~ mobile components. The other major employers are: 1) the Wickes Cor- poration, which is engaged in the manufacture of electrical machinery; 2) the Eaton, Yale and Towns Corporation, which is also engaged in the manufacture of automotive parts and machinery; and 3) the Baker Perkins Company, Inc., which is engaged in the manufacture of bakery machinery and chemical-processing equipment. Table 4 indicates the specialized nature of the non—agricultural sector of the county's economic base. As can be seen in Table 4, Saginaw has a higher proportion of em— ployment in the primary metals, transportation equipment, and food and kindred products categories. In virtually all other cagegories, Saginaw has a lower proportion of employment than does either the 1 Ibid., p. iii-29. 45 TABLE 4 1967 Employment Distribution by Sector for the United States, the State of Michigan, and Saginaw County 1 United States Michigan Saginaw County Distribution Distribution Distribution Total non-agricultural employment 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Contract construction 4.9% 4.1% 5.2% Manufacturing 29.4% 38.9% 45.6% Machinery-nonelectrical 3.0% 6.1% 5.8% Transportation equipment 2.9% 12.9% 15.8% Motor vehicles & equipment 1.2% 12.4% 15.4% Other Transportation 1.7% .5% .4% Other Durables 6.4% 3.8% 2.7% Non-Durable Goods 12.1% 7.5% 5.6% Food & Kindred Products 2.7% 1.9% 3.5% Printing & Publishing 1.6% 1.2% .7% Other Non-Durables 7.8% 4.4% 1.4% Transportation & Public Utilities 6.5% 4.9% 6.6% Wholesale & Retail Trade 20.6% 19.2% 18.9% Fire 4.9% 3.6% 2.7% Services & Mining 16.2% 13.4% 10.8% Government 17.5% 15.9% 10.2% 1United States Department of Commerce, Bureau of Labor, Statistics- Employment and Earnings Statistics for States and Areas, 1939-1967, (Washington, D. C., U. S. Government Printing Office, 1968), p. 8. 46 State of Michigan or the United States. An exception is the non- electrical machinery category in which Saginaw County has a higher prOportion of employment than the United States. However, even in this category Saginaw has a lower prOportion than the State of Michigan. Study Methodology Conceptual Framework The introductory chapter and review of the literature have placed a primary emphasis on the fact that the spatial structure of a land use pattern is strongly influenced by economic develOpment considerations which in turn are reflected through a pattern of land values. As Chapin states, "The land use pattern can be viewed as a geographic pattern of values. These patterns usually bear a very approximate relationship to their market values and such relationships vary from one part of the city to another."1 The influence of many development activities instituted either by the private or public sector also affects this pattern of land values. The land use planner in his land use development proposals exerts in a direct and indirect manner a considerable influence on development decisions which in turn alter and change the land value pattern. Direct influences are exerted by the planner if his various plan proposals for public development activities are accepted and are implemented over time through the use of police powers and public expenditures for roads, utilities, etc. 1Chapin, Urban Land Use Planning, pp. 8-10. 47 Many public and private decisions are made primarily on economic considerations which will affect the market evaluation process as re- ferred to by Lowry in the review of the literature. This market evaluation process places a value on any given parcel of land. The determined value on any given site or parcel will differ according to the attributes or variables which affect the market evaluation process. These attributes or variables can be considered as prime ingredients 1 The in the scope of comparative advantage as outlined by Barlowe. five subject growth influences of population, zoning, transportation, utilities and physiographic features have a number of sub-types or sub-categories, each of which may affect comparative advantages of one site over another. This will affect the market evaluation function of each site influenced by the growth influences and their respective sub— categories. The degree of influence in turn will tend to be ultimately reflected in changes to the land values pattern. This change can be discerned. Knowledge on the past relative effect of each growth vari- able and the respective sub—categories on real property values can be used in the land use planning process as a decision—making tool for future development decisions. Development of Study Technique In order to discern changes in real property values over two periods of time, the first step in securing a data base for the study was the development of a real property value pattern for the entire study area. The basis for establishment of the real property value pattern for 1Barlowe, Land Resource Economics, p. 244-248. 48 two distinct time periods has been based on state law, which defines real property and real prOperty value, and delineates methods for determination and recording of same on public records on an annual basis. Act 206 For clude of 1893, Section 2, defines real prOperty as follows: the purpose of taxation, real prOperty shall in- all lands within the state, and all buildings and fixtures thereon, and appurtenances thereto, except such as are expressly exempted by law, and shall include all real prOperty owned by the state. The determination of real property value for each parcel of land in Saginaw County and all other Michigan counties is based upon the Michigan State Constitution, Article IX, Section 3, which states in part: The legislature shall provide for the uniform general ad valorem taxation of real and tangible personal pro- perty value shall Act 409 "The shall place shall which not exempt by law. The prOportion of true cash at which such property, shall be uniformly ass ssed, not, after January 1, 1966 exceed 50 per cent. of 1965 defines true cash value as follows: words 'cash value' whenever used in this act be held to mean the usual selling price at the where the property to which the term is applied be at the time of assessment, being the price could be obtained therefore at private sale and not forced or auction sale." 3 The true cash value of real property as defined by Act 409 is based on an assessment made by a tax assessor or supervisor. Act 206 of 1893, Section 24, states in part that: lMichigan, Public and Local Acts, (1893), Act 206, Section 2. 2 Michigan, State Constitution, Article IX, Section 3. 3Michigan, Public and Local Acts, (1965), Act 409. 49 ...the supervisor or assessor shall make and complete an assessment roll, upon which he shall set down the name and address of every person liable to be taxed in his township or assessment district, with a full des- cription of all the real property therein liable to be taxed.... Each description shall show as near as may be the number of acres contained in it, as determined by the supervisor.... The supervisor shall estimate, according to his best information and judgment, the true cash value of every parcel of real property and set the same down Opposite such parcel. Thus, the State Constitution and State Legislation require that the true cash value of real prOperty be determined and recorded each year. The assessment of true cash value for each entity of real prOperty as defined by law, along with the procedures used to record the assessments of true cash value, can then be considered a useable and valid source of information to determine the real property value pattern of the county. All governmental units in Saginaw County, in compliance with state law, have assessed and recorded each recorded parcel of land under their jurisdiction. The recording procedure and format of description in generally established by law, although some variation in property des- criptions and basic format is allowed. However, for Saginaw County, the tax assessment rolls for each local unit of government are prepared by the County Equalization Office, which in addition to the equalization function, also assists local township supervisors in assessing property. Each property description, as recorded in the tax assessment records, follows a consistent format for the entire county. An example of the basic format and the information contained in each prOperty description is as follows: (3) (4) (3) (2) (3) (4) both the real and personal prOperty is indicated. 50 11-5-5 A F BARRY ET AL 4001 5083 DIXIE HWY (5) D-1 SACINAw, MICH. COM.AT INTERSECTION OF E&W%LINE WITH NE'LY LINE OF U.s.23 HWY.? RUN. TH.E.ON E&W&LINE 504.3 FT.? TH.S.47° (1) TO NE'LY LINE OF U.S.23 HWY.277FT. TO SAID NE'LY LINE? TH.NW'LY ON SAID (1) NE'LY LINE 378.4FT. TO BEG. 3.16 ACRES SEC. 5 TllN R5E. C (2) 10-4-10 MELVIN R. PRICE 2001 2925 w. TOWNLINE RD. (5) D-3 SAGINAW, MICH. R—l NS 1/4 - 160 ACRES (1) SEC 10 TION R4E AG 12-4-16 CARLTON D EVANS 4427 4295 WEISS (5) D-lO SAGINAW, MICH. E. 100 FT. OD w.1214 FT. OF N.436 FT. 0F NWk OF SEk ALSO KNOWN AS LOT 25- (1) MUELLER'S SUB-DIv.-UNRECDRDED. 1 ACR SEC. 16 T12N R4E R (2) Parcel description, measurements, size. Use of parcel AG - Agricultural R - Residential C - Commercial Location of quarter section - 1000 NW 2000 NE 3000 SE 4000 SW Location of parcel in county. Owner's mailing address. For each parcel of land thus described the assessed valuation of In addition, the county equalized evaluation and the state equalized evaluation of each described parcel is indicated by the assessing office in separate columns of the tax assessment book. 51 Area Unit of Analysis The pattern of real property values as described on a parcel-by- parcel basis for the entire county can be compared to a giant puzzle superimposed upon the square area of the county. This pattern of property descriptions and real prOperty values is made up of some 85,340 individual parcels. These parcels range in size from 900 acres to 2,000 square feet in area. Thus, the problem which confronted the researcher was determination of a constant unit of analysis which would have a constant size area and which could utilize the basic format and content of each parcel description as recorded in tax assessment records for each local governmental unit. By virtue of this limitation, the area unit of analysis had to be based on one common denominator which constituted a constant in each individual property description. This one common constant factor which is in— corporated in each assessed parcel of land is the prOperty description based upon the township and range survey method. This survey system was established through the provisions of the Northwest Territorial Ordinance of 1789. The ordinance provided for town roads every mile which set the pattern of accessibility to four 160 acre farms per square mile of land. Each prOperty is thus described by town, range, section, and quarter section. Inasmuch as the quarter section represented the smallest constant area unit contained in each individual parcel description, it was used throughout the study as the area unit of analysis. The quarter section unit is coded to each square mile by the numbers 1000, 2000, 3000, and 4000. The thousand figure designation indicates the location 52 of the quarter section in a square mile. 1000 indicates the Northwest quarter, 2000 the Northeast quarter, 3000 the Southwest quarter, and 4000 the Southeast quarter. The number of individual parcels des~ cribed to any given quarter section is also made part of the quarter section designation. For instance, the number 4002 would not only in- dicate the Southwest quarter, but also indicate that two (2) parcels of land were described to that quarter section. As such, the desig- nation by code of individual parcels to a quarter section and the designation of a quarter section to a square mile enabled the aggre- gation of all parcels described to a quarter section as the next step in the development of comparative real property value patterns for the county. Establishment of Real Property_Value Pattern The establishment of a uniform real prOperty value pattern for Saginaw County was accomplished through the following procedure: 1. All sections and quarter sections for each governmental unit in Saginaw County were clearly identified in each individual property tax description. In addition, the size of each parcel was also clearly indicated and made part of each quarter section as the established area unit of analysis. 2. For each quarter section, the individual parcels in- scribed to that quarter section were aggregated to total not more than 160 acres. In many instances, especially in the urban areas, the total acreage or size of the aggregated parcels did not total 160 acres. This can 53 be attributed to the acreage devoted to public roads and prOperties and not assessed for prOperty taxes. In the same step, the state equalized value was also aggregated for each quarter section. After the total assessed acreage for each quarter section was aggregated and the total state equalized value for this aggregated acreage was determined, the total state equalized value was multiplied by two and divided by the total quarter section. The remitting value figure then represents the average or mean per acre real prOperty value; an example of the above procedure is de- picted in Table 5. The entire procedure used to arrive at a mean real property value per acre for each quarter section in the county can be stated as follows: PV equals 2 Vn (2x) £Ln where PV: The average per acre real prOperty value for a quarter section. {Imn The sum of the number of acres inscribed to a particular quarter section. 5. stands for summation, L is the number of acres per parcel, and n is the number of parcels per quarter section. .th: The sum of real prOperty values for all land parcels within a given quarter section. 5L stands for summation, V is the value for each parcel, and n is the total number of parcels. 2x: The equalization factor for each governmental unit for any given year, multiplied by two to obtain the market value for a given quarter section. This procedure was completed for all 3,832 quarter sections described in the tax assessment rolls of all 37 governmental units for 1955 and 1968. An intervening time period of thirteen years was chosen to more clearly emphasize and distinguish between the changes of average per acre real property values on a quarter section by quarter section basis. 54 cwH.mm amo.mm acc.mw «oh.Hw wsHm> .m.m wuu< >4 A©+qv koa.aw m mmw.ms m wcH.wm w cac.mm~m mam.mmm oom.NHw ooc.oam omo.mom .Nc.m EH possum mesa .mc.m as Deccan aowccuaacssc mmaa .mmu¢ cmuHHomouum: smanmm wnu :HnuH3 QHanSOu waHuHcmnu: :4 « Nx umuummo msam> .m.m Amc.mv msHm> pmmmmmm¢ asses mmH Wm H 3HHH mmm wQH 3m H BHHH Mmm qu . 32 H 3HHH mmm OmH mz H BHHH Mmm mwpo< pmmmmmm< mmmmmmm .mmwwwmw .4NMH mwmmm. asses AwmsHm> aowuomm umupmso uuwama ou pom: umauom MHQEMmV mmma Lacs Cmsccaco mHmmZSOH mmzou m MHm nmeommxm so mZDm so momDOm umuH Homo: mocmem> mo mHthma< muowmwm vmxwm thIose m magma. 67 measures the value of soil type one and soil type two for one hundred times, the difference between the two values will fall within the derived limits 99 times out of 100 (at a .99 level). If zero is included within this confidence interval, this means that the difference between the two properties may be zero, and the two are not significantly different. However, it the con- fidence interval does not include zero, this indicates that the difference in the value of the two types of land may be statis- tically significant. To arrive at this confidence interval, it is necessary to calculate a Tukey factor, which is then added to, and subtracted from, the mathematical difference between two property values. The computation of this factor is illus- trated in Table 10 on the following page. These outlined study techniques and statistical analysis procedures constitute the study methods which are constantly and identically applied to each of the five growth variables. Chapter V indicates both the manner of application and statistical findings obtained from the application of the study techniques to the five subject matter areas. 68 TABLE 10 Computation of the Tukey Factor 1. Basic Formula: Y_- TVMS (%'c') 4 L é‘L + TVMS (k'c') J' J' Q.is the difference between two sample soil groups. T equals 1 g l -Cé; r, N-r VE- l - 03€QUals the confidence level, in this study .99 (l - .01) r equals the number of different subjects to be tested against each other, 16. N is the total number of subjects, in this case 480 (each quarter section's 1955 and 1968 values are summed for this test). q is a tabled value found by looking at the table with l — “'significance, with r, N—r degrees of freedom. T for this study equals 1 (5.49) or 1 5.48 c stands for the integer which preceeds each of the values being subtracted, in this case each area has an integer of one so % 'c' would equal %(2) or 1. 2. Substitution of numerical data: 1:- TMS (1/2'c') éLi’lETW‘i—S (l/z'c') (Area 1 - Area 2) — 1VMS (l) — L - (1) MS (1) (Area 1 - Area 2) 3. The confidence interval for the true value of (Area 1 - Area 2) is the difference between these two, plus or minus\/MS. VrMS is the same for this test as for the analysis of variance. The tables used for the Tukey Technique can be found in the cited text of this study. 1 William C. Guenther, Analysis of Variance, (Englewood Cliffs; New Jersey, Prentice Hall., 1964), pp. 110-170. 69 CHAPTER IV RESULTS OF THE INVESTIGATION This chapter discusses the application of the study procedure and study methodology as outlined in Chapter III to the five defined urban growth variables. Due to the basic nature of the study design, the two statistical analysis methods had to be applied separately to each individual growth variable. The study technique and results of each growth variable will also be treated and discussed separately. In developing this chapter, the study methodology and procedure will be placed in five individual sections according to type of growth variable. In each section the five attributes and significance of each growth variable as related to real property values will be discussed separately. Secondly, the rationale used for the selection of each sample population will be stated. Thirdly, the statistical results for each growth vari- able will also be stated separately within the section. In Chapter V an attempt will be made to present and analyze the separate findings of the five growth variables as a whole. Physiographic Features The effect of physiographic features on land values and land uses has been a prime area of concern of many professions concerned with and dealing with the use of land for any infinite number of purposes. As indicated in Chapter I, physiographic features as a broad category 70 of urban growth variables include many different aspects. The t0po— graphy, drainage pattern, soil characteristics, climate, and ground water supply represent but a selected number of individual parts of a much larger subject matter area. Each individual part(s) of this larger subject matter area, in turn, can be divided up into another set of characteristics. In this section of this chapter, two indi- vidual parts of the overall physiographic environment will be con— sidered separately. Both will be treated as separate sections in this investigation. These are: 1) Soils as the base upon which all human activities must take place; and, 2) Rivers which as drainage courses and natural obstacles tend to exert a shaping influence on growth and develOpment. Soils The soil pattern of Saginaw County tends to differ from area to area in texture, permeability, stratification, percolation, and slope. Due to these different characteristics inherent in the soils pattern, differential influences in turn would seem to be manifested in the real property value pattern. The soil characteristics of any given area not only represent the base upon which all human activities must take place, but also determines the degree of productivity and use which can be made of the land. Soils in this sense cover land as a continuum. The suitability of this continuum at any one place results from the combining influence of climate, and the living matter existing upon apparent rich material as conditioned by relief over a period of time. This includes the effect of the cultural environment and man's 71 use of the soil, inasmuch as those influences differ from each other in terms of specific use capability. These differences in use capa- bility, to sustain any given land use, may be reflected in the use made of any given parcel of land and in this manner determine the economic productivity of the area. Should any parcel of land have soil characteristics which offer little economic return, or which cannot be used for any other economic activity, the real prOperty value of this parcel of land (on a per acre basis) will be lower than a parcel with soil characteristics more suitable for agricultural production, or for higher economic land uses. Poorly drained sandy soils, due to their lower expected economic re- turn, have a lower real prOperty value than well drained clay loam soil. In the same context, land with unfavorable soil characteristics for both the existing use and for future develOpment will, over time, not experience a similar degree of increase in real property value. Land parcels with favorable soil characteristics for future develop- ment will experience a higher proportionate increase in real prOperty value over a period of time than areas with unfavorable soil charac— teristics. As such, it would seem that change in real property values may be attributed naturally to the soil characteristics of any given area. Delineation of Soil Areas Into Sample Population In order to determine the relationship of soil area characteristics to real prOperty values, the different soil area within Saginaw County were defined and delineated on the basis of the 1933 Bureau of Soil and Chemistry soils map for Saginaw County. Each soil area has one or 72 more dominant soil type. The ten soil areas, as determined, con— sidered the following use—capability groups in the 1933 rating system (refer to Figure 4): "Urban Development. Urban develOpment includes one or two storied dwellings-with basements, parks, playgrounds, shppping centers with one or two storied buildings, schools, churches and the necessary roads, streets and parking lots. The majority of the development is dwellings, roads, parks, and playgrounds. It is assumed that all urban development is planned to provide for surface water runoff, both from the development and from adjoining areas. There will be a minimum of ero— sion or flooding during construction and none after com- pletion. Water leaving the development will not cause dam- age to lower lying areas. A. Urban development with sewers and sewage disposal systems (Rating column headed ”Sewers”). In this category, the limiting factors are properties that cause uneven set- tling, cracking of walls, and flooding of basements. The limitations may be from permeability, volume change, sta- bility of ability of the soil to support loads. The limi- tations may be from the normal water table and probability of soil saturation in wet periods. Well drained soils are assumed to have slight limitations, moderately well drained and somewhat poorly drained soils have moderate limitations and poorly drained soils have severe limitations. The limi- tations may be from 310pe of the soil. Slopes of less than 12 percent are severe. SIOpes near 12 percent may have severe limitations if shape of the land is such that sewers cannot be designed without numerous pumps. B. Urban development without sewers and diSposal systems, but have individual septic tank disposal systems (Rating Column headed "Septic"). This category has all the limita- tions of: a) Urban development plus the factors that limit the efficient working of septic tank systems. The added limitations are the soil properties that affect the move- ment of affluence in the soil. Texture, stratification and percolation rate of the soil must be considered. The slope of the soil is assumed to have slight limitations up to 6 percent moderate from 6 to 12 percent, and severe over 12 percent. Water in or on the drain field can cause many limitations. Soils that have normal water tables at or near the surface or are periodically flooded have severe limitations. Soils with fluctuating water tables that are near the surface for short periods of time are assumed to have moderate limi- 73 tations if the shape of the land is such that surface water never stands on them. Soils with seepage spots would have severe limitations if the seepage enters the drain field and moderate limitations if cut off and diverted away from the drain field. Well drained fields are rated as having slight limitations. Agriculture. Agriculture is the growing of farm crops and livestock. Specialized practices as sod farms, orchards, and nurseries for landscaping or forestry use are included, (Rating Column headed "Ag"). The limitations are the nutri— ents available in the soil, the ability of the soil to hold and release added nutrients. The ability of the soil to hold water flooding, slope, and the erodibility of the soil. Soils have been rated for agriculture in the land capability system of the soil conservation service. Capability Class I and II are assumed to have slight limitations, Class III and IV have moderate limitations, Class V and higher have severe limitations. Forestry. The Forestry Category is the growing and har- vesting of forest products (Rating Column headed "For"). Limitations are fertility and water holding capacity of the soils, water table, or any other soil property that restricts root growth, periodic flooding, and the direction of slope. Steepness of slope is not considered a limiting factor up to 18 percent and then only as it limits ability to harvest the products. Usually, steep slopes are narrow and have little effect on Management and Harvest. Recreation. Recreation includes all phases of recreation and includes the necessary constructed facilities and buildings, constructed facilities, such as ball diamonds, golf courses, in— tensive camp sites and the necessary buildings to facilitate these intensive uses would have the same use rating as urban develOpment. It is assumed that within an area reserved for recreation, there would need to be sites with limitations suit- able for these uses. (Rating Column "Rec"). In this system, the soils are rated on the limitations for the less intensive uses as picnic areas, play areas, paths and trails, hunting, fishing, bird watching, and primitive camp areas. Limitations are compactability of the soil, ability to grow sod that will stand foot traffic, high water table, and flooding during the season of use. Water tables at or near the surface and oc- casional short period flooding are assumed to have moderate limitations. Water tables that fluctuate but seldom are at or near the surface during the use season and well drained areas are assumed to have slight limitations. Frequent flood— ing and water tables at or above the surface during the use season are assumed to have severe limitations. 74 Limitations. Slight limitations: Limitations that have little effect on a Specific use can be easily cor- rected by standard methods, (Rating Column headed "1"). Moderate limitations: Limitations that can be economically and feasibly corrected. They may cause some alteration in design for a Specific use. They can economically or feasi- bly be corrected for the specific use category. Use is very questionable, except for wild fowl hunting, which may be best under a severe limitation from wetness (Rating Column headed "3"). In rating soils, the most severe limitation for a use determined the rating. TABLE 11 Use Rating Scale For Soil Area Map Use—Rating ‘Apga Dominant Soils Sewer Septic Agp. §g£;_ Egg;_ 1 Newton - Dominant 3 3 2 3 3 l Arenac — Major Inclusion 2 2 2 2 2 2 Brookston & Wisner 3 3 1 3 3 3 Kawkawlin, Conover, Macomb 2 2 l 3 2 4 Toledo & Clyde 3 3 2 3 3 5 Tuscola - Very Fine Sandy l 2 2 l 1 Loam 6 Tuscola - Silt Loam l 2 1 l l 7 Colwood 3 3 2 3 3 8 Ottawa 2 2 2 2 2 9 Oshtemo l l 2 2 l 10 Genesee - Dominant 3 3 l 2 l 10 Griffin - Major Inclusion 3 3 2 3 3 Sampling The grid superimposed over the total county service area in square quarter section units did not uniformly fit the soil area pattern; as V I ) V .. tv NOTE! Is 4 < ( r 3 P Fv 7 u ‘ 4 1 7 “V r A ¢ 4 r ‘ L 7 4 s < rv‘v A v 4 DV J A JAL)( \s r J hv,vr‘l r SAGINAW CUUNIY Sflll AREAS ARIA Ti A couple- eilture of derk colored set sends end light colored soeeuhei poorly drsined sends. Long nerrou ridges of uell drsineo sends ere scettered thru the eres. Inclusions ere sneii ersee of poorly dreinsd loses end loses uith e sheliou covering of send. Ares hes slight iieitetions for spriCulturel use out severe illite- tione for lend uses eesocietsd uith urben developeent. AREA 2: The dosinste soils srs poorly dreined loses end cley loses. in- cluded ere eeell ersee of sossuhet poorly drsinsd loses end loses covered with send. Arse hes slight lieitetions for egrioulturel use but severe use lieitetione for urbsn deuelopeent. AREA 3: ' The doeinsts soils ere the eoesuhst poorly dreinsd loses end cley loses. Included ere erses of poorly orsinsd loses end cley loses siso included ere ersee ulth shellOu covering of send. lrse hes slight lisitetions for egrioultursl uses: end soosrets lieitetione for urbsn deuslopesnt. AREA 0: This eres is the poorly dreinsd tleye end heeuy cley loses. in- cluded ere nuserOue ersee eith e ehellou covering of send. Hodsrets llsitetions for egriculturel use uitn ssuers lieitetione for urhen lend uses. ABE! 5: Host of this eres is Tuecoie very fine sendy loss. it is e nod- srstsly uell-dreinsd soil coepoesd of elite end very fine sends. Inrluded ere ersee of poorly dreined eilts end elite over loses. Slight to soderete use lieitstions for both urhen end egricuitursl lend uses. Uhsn sore deteilsd inforeetion for e use oetspery on different percsle of lend ere needed, the sells on thet percsi es in- diceted on the 193s soils sea of the County should be used. The use retlnps for the soil ersee is the use reting for sech soil found in the County. Heny chanes hsve secured in the soil oieeeificstion systse since 193i. uhsn interpretetions ere eels for the 1030 soils under the present interpretetion systse, there is e possibility of errors ososuee of difference in cleeeifiostion since 1830. It sust else he noted thet the u lilitetlon for eesh soil ersesosn be reduced through sen ssds isproveeents to increess neturei drsineps. or beering osssoity of the soils through ssoeuetion end pilinpe. Alt! 6: Host of this eres is Tuscols silt loss. The eres is nesrly the sees es Ares 5, but his e silt loss eurfeos end generelly sore eilte end lees fine sends in the profile. is less subject to wind erosion then fires 5. Slight lisitetione for both urben end serioultursl lend uses. AREA 7: In eres of poorly dreinsd strstified slits end fine sends. in- cludsd ere eeell ersee of eoseuhst poorly dreinsd silte. Severe lleitetions for urben lend uses. Hoderete lieitetions for spri- culturel lend uses. III! I: In eres of iosey send uith s euhstrstus of oley lose st depths of 3§ to 5* feet. Hodsrets use iieitstione for both serioultursl end urben lend uses. AREA I: In eres of usll-drsinsd prevel soils. Included ere eoesuhet poorly drsined prevel soils. Slight lieitetions for ursen lend uses. lodsrsts lieitetions for sprioultursl lend uses. AREA 10: liver flood plelns. The soils ere setsrisl deposited by the floods. The serr soils srs usil-dreined, but included ere ersee of poorly Slight lleitstions for eprioulturel lend uses. Severe lisitetions for urbsn lend uses. 76 a consequence, some quarter sections contained portions of two or three different soil areas. Thus, to determine the different popu- lations of soil areas, all quarter sections were listed under the soil type to which they belonged, i.e., all quarter sections located in one individual soil area were grouped together; quarter sections which were split by two or more different soil areas were listed under the appropriate combination of soils category. Soil groupings with more than thirty quarter sections from which to select a sample of thirty include: Area 1 Areas 1 plus 2 Areas 4 plus 10 Area 2 Areas 2 plus 3 Areas 3 plus 5 Area 3 Areas 1 plus 10 Area 4 Areas 1 plus 4 Area 5 Areas 2 plus 10 Area 6 Areas 1 plus 3 Area 10 Areas 6 plus 10 From the total number of quarter sections in each of these soil groupings, a sample of thirty quarter sections was selected at random. All other soil area combinations which did not have thirty (30) representative quarter sections were grouped together under "Others", and a sample of thirty (30) quarter sections was selected at random. Thus, a total of sixteen soil groups was created. By using the statistical technique as outlined in Chapter III, proper- ty values for 1955 and 1968 for the entire sample for each individual soil area were summed up. The total sample values for all other soil areas were summed up in the same manner. This resulted in a total value 77 for the entire quarter section sample (n is 30) for each of the six- teen soil areas. Table 12 depicts the summed up values for 1955 and 1968 for each individual soil area. The 1955 and 1968 values were added together for all sixteen soil areas and for the entire sample (N = 960). The same procedure was repeated, except that all indivi- dual values were squared and then summed. Table 13 shows the results of this computation. These two steps then completed the data for sub- stitution into the analysis of variance formats discussed and depicted in Chapter 111. TABLE 12 Summed 1955 and 1967 Real PrOperty Values For Each Soil Area Soil Area Samples 1955 1967 1955 8 1967 Number Number Valpg Vglpg Value 1 l-A to 1-DD 3,054 9,670 12,724 2 2—A to 2-DD 13,469 68,814 82,283 3 3-A to 3—DD 5,626 26,969 32,595 4 4-A to 4-DD 2,754 11,778 14,532 5 5-A to 5-DD 4,023 12,989 17,012 6 6-A to 6-DD 10,167 83,782 93,949 10 lO-A to lO—DD 7,763 31,969 39,732 1-2 8—A to 8-DD 4,521 19,200 23,721 l-lO 9—A to 9-DD 27,831 68,986 96,817 1-4 lO-A to lO-DD 6,445 25,341 31,786 2-10 ll-A to ll-DD 110,226 208,556 318,782 1—3 12-A to 12-DD 25,325 46,579 71,904 6—10 l3-A to 13-DD 64,530 171,645 236,175 2-3 l4-A to l4-DD 7,180 24,781 31,961 4—1 lS-A to lS-DD 2,456 8,334 10,790 Others 16-A to l6-DD 16,549 34,137 50,686 TOTALS 311,919 853,530 1,165,449 Soil Area _Number 1 2 10 1—2 1—10 1—4 2-10 1-3 6-10 2—3 4-10 Others TOTALS 78 TABLE 13 Squared 1955 and 1968 Real Property Values For Each Soil Sub—Growth Variable Sample 1955 1968 2 1955 & 1 68 Npmpgp Value (p,) Value (n ) Value Cx_) l-A to l-DD 760,286 6,578,846 7,339,132 2—A to 2-DD 54,053,885 1,079,701,129 1,133,755,014 3-A to 3-DD 1,211,436 64,566,725 65,778,161 4-A to 4-DD 368,046 6,157,292 6,525,338 5-A to S-DD 687,565 6,716,054 7,403,619 6-A to 6—DD 15,100,713 1,113,025,483 1,128,126,196 7—A to 7—DD 18,697,835 209,606,436 228,304,271 8-A to 8-DD 1,144,533 51,303,870 52,448,403 9—A to 9—DD 590,377,615 3,113,487,344 3,703,864,959 lO-A to lO-DD 2,754,423 26,954,465 29,708,888 ll-A to ll-DD 10,893,685,605 36,449,086,922 47,342,772,527 12-A to 12—DD 454,374,610 1,135,777,631 1,590,152,241 l3-A to l3-DD 1,220,781,334 3,669,345,777 4,890,127,111 14-A to 14—DD 1,795,832 22,566,556 24,362,388 15-A to lS-DD 525,149 5,464,038 5,989,187 l6-A to 16—DD 43,088,959 158,782,320 210,871,279 13,299,407,826 47,119,120,959 60,418,528,7l4 Table 14 depicts the F ratios which were computed using the analysis of variance techniques, fixed effects model. The result of the entire analysis of variance procedures was completed and noted separately. Source of Variation COLUMNS ROWS INTERACTION ERROR Results 1. 79 TABLE 14 Analysis of Variance: Computed F Ratios — Soils Expected Sums of Squares Q§_ Mean Square F Ratio Mean Squares 307,231,745.13 l 307,231,745.130 5.04 Column effects plus error l,851,077,064.43 15 123,405,137.630 2.03 Row effects plus error 294,144,536.l3 15 l9,609,635.742 .32 Interaction effects plus error 56,551,209,356.23 .928 60,938,803.18 -- Error alone The F ratio of the Mean Square for columns at the .01 level indicates that a significant increase of real property value between 1955 and 1968 has taken place. This disproves our null hypothesis that real property values for 1955 and 1968 were equal. The F ratio at the .01 level indicates that the Mean Square for rows is statistically significant. This disproves our first null hypothesis that no signifi— cant differences in real property value due to soil area characteristics exist. The F ratio for the Mean Square interreaction at either the .01 or .05 level indicates changes in real property value were either due to passage of 80 time or soil area characteristics, i.e., there was no interaction effect. Real property values in- creased prOportionally, although not equally during the intervening thirteen (13) year period. By using the Tukey Technique, as described in Chapter 11, all soil areas were compared and ranked with each other. The results of the Tukey Technique were computed at the .01 level and ranked according to the increase of real property value between 1955 and 1968. Table 15 depicts the lst 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th results of the Tukey Technique. TABLE 15 Real PrOperty Value Increases of Soil Areas and Soil Area Groupings by Rank Value 1955 - 1968 Area 2-10. Area 6—10. Area 6, and Area 1-10. Area 2. Area 1—3. Others. Area 10, and Area 3. Area 3, Area 2-3, Area 1-4, (Area 3 fits in two groupings). Area 1-2, and Area 5. Area 5, Area 4, Area 1, and Area 4-10. (Area 5 fits in two groups.) Figure 5 depicts the four soil groupings on a quarter section basis which experienced the highest increase of real prOperty value over the thirteen year period. A more detailed elaboration on the significance 81 Figure 5 a! ma: 3§I.!_a, 20.3.2200 02.224d zhznoo 342.045 t‘l U.I>UI.IIGJI f..- O ...]. I'll—"01""!- ‘ll'e.l!l Ii ICNN'I 'I'!.i' Onnm ... Have A 2. ES: 5.: a 8?. SS. 9: 1. ES: can i 870 35: new I 87... :5: a: ' ww >_=wa=~m Lhzaoo 3pZDOo 342.043 a‘l u.¢»ul.ll‘4t '.‘.e!". i "l.'i O " ll. [- l..l!ls-i. :. 54(U¢ YJUVI oonn Amsmqa~¢>< mueeeuaez Ouamae ozv A>azo mo~>¢um aueaav A>azo dossmmm meu oz< amu<3v 1,520 auleemm mega haamealeea eeaem .eaeaa .aauv J>=J=>Pbg J’J... quip. ... eeell U nee MWWMMm E I I 98 Transportation The overall environment of Saginaw County can be viewed as an accumulative total of different land use components. Each of these components is influenced not only by historical growth and develOp— ment patterns, but also by the availability of and accessibility to a system of trafficways. TranSportation routes constitute a primary determining influence on the location and nature of urban settlements, and constitute a prerequisite for the utilization and development of the natural resource base of a given locality. Within the pattern of growth and develOpment the accessibility to and from any area can be considered as a constant pre—condition for land development activities. This relationship of travel and travel costs to the land use de- velopment pattern has been a major tOpic of concern by economists and land use planners alike. In the review of the literature, Von Thunen, Haig, and Wingo, among others, related and explained the existing land use pattern to the availability or the lack of a transportation network in terms of time and travel costs to move goods and services. Land use develOpment models as used by the more elaborate and complex land use planning programs clearly define and emphasize the relationship of the transportation network to service the surrounding land use pattern. In these land use development models, land use components in themselves are viewed as traffic generators. Traffic generated by the adjacent and surrounding land use pattern will differ in terms of generated traffic volumes from one land use category to another. Through a deter- mination of traffic volumes generated by a given land use component, a 99 transportation system can then be designed which has the capacity to handle traffic volumes subjected to it by the various defined traffic generators. The intensity of land use patterns as traffic generators thus tend to be closely correlated with the functional design capability of the transportation network servicing a given locality. Additionally, by either increasing or decreasing the accessibility of a given area, the existing trafficways system exerts an influence on the intensity of land uses traversed. The intensity of land uses in turn would ultimately be reflected in the pattern of real prOperty values of any given area traversed by these various component parts of the overall transportation network. Delineation of Sample Populations for Various Components of the Transportation Network The travel pattern within and between various land use components thus takes place over a system of streets and highways. This system of streets and highways tends to differ in basic design capacity to service and move traffic volumes generated by the adjacent land use pattern. A four—lane highway with limited access will have a higher traffic volume carrying capacity than a four-lane highway with no limitations on access. In this context the extent and degree of influence a trans- portation network can exert upon the adjacent land use pattern can be considered directly proportionate to the design and the differentiation of design capacity between parts of an overall transportation system. This differentiation can be attributed to the design standards incor- porated in various parts Of the highway network. The design classifi- 100 cation assigned to parts of the overall highway system tends to differ in terms of trip lengths, access control, median width, and surface. In Saginaw County the existing transportation network has been classified by the Michigan Department of State Highways according to a functional design classification system. The five basic highway classifications for Saginaw County include: Statewide arterials, regional arterials, metro area arterials, principal collectors and secondary collectors. Table 22 depicts the design criteria applied to each functional highway classification. Figure 9 depicts the classification system as applied and determined for the existing tranSportation network in Saginaw County. This classification of the existing transportation network was determined by the State Highways Department in collaboration with the Saginaw County Road Commission. Samplipg,Procedure All quarter sections which were traversed in any way by any portion of the transportation network designated and classified according to the design standards depicted on Table 22 were grouped together as a population. Thus, a pOpulation of quarter sections was obtained for each of the following designated functional highway classifications: l. Statewide Arterial 2. Regional Arterial 3. Local Arterial 4. Principal Collector 5. Secondary Collector 6. Areas not traversed or affected by streets and highways not classified according to the design standards depicted in Table 22. 8 u... e 3.0.. ..l.3 , 20592200 622244.... 245.582.52 >h2300 332.04%. CC. 0.8hu._lI¢Jt U.‘ .‘I'.’ i " . 'S' :1. ‘ 3' u... I it. 101 Figure 9 / onnl ... uiuu mflflflidfldflflflflflflifl Ar ‘. 8—9-300 >u3209-n 8.50.300 aCt—UZ—ls : Iii! ..(E ..(UOu l «38:: <=<- 02,-! Stiles-cl. ..<_¢-hl< ago-c ...IIIII n ..Se-ued e933 (.3 I] .voHMHumon onozs mom: on has mmooo< HmHuumm I .mN N I .00 OCOZ I .wq o I .ow OGOZ mHOuUmfifiOU Hwfiuo wam wHwHHGuHm I .00 m l .OOH mdoz mmmH MO H mmlmN SUH3 mfiwumhm HNUOH uumGfiOU HOUUOHHOU %HmUGOn I .NN N I .cc 6:62 I .me e I .cw 6:62 I .00 m I .oNH meoz mamnuuuum I .dw N I .ONH QGOZ mmmH no N OQImN SUH3 wEmum%m HNUOH UUO¢GOU mHOuUwHHOO HNQHUGH. smemwm monommql I .NN N I .cc 8:62 I .wq o I .ow oaoz mmmuum I .00 m I .oNH odoz wcmH do mHmmsmEm duos .Ho>oH I .qw m I .ONH wcoz mmmH HO OH mqlom HmuOH um OOH>umm HmHuouum ummmmH mHmHnmun< Hmo. 2 U 1 I .me e I .omN eeoz I — .VN ® N ..N . ‘Vw _OON \IWIQCOZ I .cm s N 8 .oc .OON \meeoz cea>pma I .me e N N .oe .OON \meeoz me I H menmm ease emaaena .eauuaeo ewaouee maaaaeeue Hmeoum I .wq 2V I .OWH QSOZ em>em .eN e N a .0m .on Haas eu>mm .cm a N c .cN .on Haze em>mm .me e N N .cN .omm Haas oN I e okume seduces emaouee Hmaaaua< unneeuc” zmem»m naHmmHm mesa noes: mecca cocoa s83 Houucoo AamNNav Aeeav onnozse monsmmm smeznme onHFZDOO 3z._.2300 3u,.12Hm2mHZH 4.3444 «HvaHmHQHH 111 3. Industrial-Commercial in combination 4. Commercial—Industrial and Residential zoning designation in combination 5. No zoning (not affected by a zoning ordinance) The total county population of quarter sections was then separated according to the five zoning categories or columns. From each sample population a random sample of thirty quarter sections was again drawn to constitute the primary basis for further statistical analysis as outlined in Chapter III. Tables 26 and 27 depict the summed and squared sample pOpulations for each zoning column or category. TABLE 26 Summed 1955 - 1968 Real Property Values for Quarter Section Samples by Zoning Ordinance Samplg .1955 .1268 1955 - 1968 Residential R1 30A 6,638 31,978 38,616 Residential R2-3 30B 7,082 30,777 37,859 Residential R4 30C 7,246 41,006 48,252 Agric - Res R6 30D 7,526 26,057 33,583 Agric - Res R7 30E 5,323 21,073 26,396 Commer Res 30F 49,228 255,189 304,417 Indus., Comm. 30G 139,809 412,169 551,978 Comm. Ind. Res. 30H 53,414 913,836 967,250 No Zoning 30I 2,953 5,919 8,872 279,219 1,738,004 2,017,223 112 TABLE 27 Squared 1955 - 1968 Real Property Values for Quarter Section Samples by Zoning Category Residential R1 30A Residential R2-3 303 Residential R4 30C Agric - Res R—6 30D Agric - Res R7 30E Commer Res 30F Indus. Comm. 30G Comm. Ind. Res. 30H No Zoning 301 8,933,848 66,176,969 75,110,817 14,608,684 284,161,279 298,769,963 3,309,698 120,833,192 124,142,890 3,369,620 41,077,311 44,446,931 1,105,840 16,867,336 17,973,176 990,820,666 29,162,328,607 30,153,149,273 ll,830,3l7,494 65,273,987,699 77,104,305,l93 636,101,294 290,292,538,728 290,928,640,022 425,981 1,738,253 2,164,234 13,488,993,125 385,259,709,374 398,748,702,497 The summed and squared real prOperty values for each sample population as with the preceding sections provided the required base of information for further statistical analysis. Tabel 28 depicts the statistical findings derived from the application of the analysis of variance method (one-way) to the data depicted on Tables 26 and 27. Source of Variation Columns Rows Inter— action Error TABLE 28 Analysis of Variance Computed F. Ratios - Zoning Sum of Sguares 3,940,836,437.86 18,632,432,477.26 9.1:: Mean .F Expected Meat Sguare Ratio Square 1 3,940,836,437.86 5.278 Columns effec plus error 8 2,329,054,059,675 3.119 Row effect plus error 819,623,535 1.098 Interaction 6,556,988,283 8 389,748,710,551 539 746,645,039.3 -- effect + errc Error alone Results 1. 113 The F. ratio of the Mean Square for columns at the .01 level indicates that a significant increase of real property value between 1955 and 1968 has taken place. This disproves our null hypothesis that real prOperty values for 1955 and 1968 were equal. The F ratio at the .01 level indicates that the Mean Square for rows is statistically significant. This disproves our null hypothesis that no significant differences in real property value due to zoning designations exists. The F. ratio for the Mean Square interreaction at either the .01 or .05 level indicates changes in real prOperty value were either due to passage of time or to the characteristics of the county zoning pattern. All property values increased prOportionally although not equally during the intervening thirteen-year period. The statistical findings were then applied to the Tukey formula to determine the relative ranking of the nine zoning designations within the overall zoning pattern. The results of the Tukey method indicated the following results in the relative ranking of real prOperty value increase for each zoning category: lst highest real property value increase - Quarter sections zoned as Commercial, Industrial and Residential in combination. 2nd highest real property value increase - Quarter sections zoned to Commercial and Industrial land use in combination with each other. 114 3rd highest real property value increase - Quarter sections zoned to 4th highest real property value increase - 5th highest real property value increase - Commercial and Residential land uses in combination. Quarter sections zoned to residential use. Within this ranking a difference of real property value increase between the seven residential zoning types can be discerned. Thus, with the overall residential zoning classification the real property value increase is as follows: Residential R4 Residential R1 Residential R.3 . Residential R6 Residential R5 and 7 (not significantly different from the No Zoning designa- tion) (DD-DUN Quarter sections not zoned Figure 11 depicts graphically the above value ranking. 115 Figure 12 3 K..: 3.5.2.3.3, 2059228 02.22441 24:1.08mhm2 >p2300 3<26u'.llddt In: ‘0’. Hui! . I'D. Ono. .... u‘Un i. AozuzoN ozv cu. Ascubzuoamucv nun Asampzoo~mu¢ .sqauzuctouV ucN 23<_»zoommu¢ .5<_mpmsoz~ .sguozutcoov 0.. 3:55 “a; 5:2: 5“ 25:: 2.22 CHAPTER V LIMITATIONS, SUMMARY, AND CONCLUSIONS This chapter will be devoted to the presentation of (l) the limi- tations of the study procedure and findings; (2) a summary of study findings; (3) conclusions suggested by the investigation as a whole; and (4) potential application of the investigation to land-use planning decisions. Study Limitations As with any research study dealing with selected aspects of urban growth dynamics, certain portions of the entire investigation can be questioned. These questions as to validity and accuracy can be re— lated primarily to the attempt to indicate positive relationships between one singular growth variable and an increase or decrease in real property values. This in turn can be related to the fact that a considerable degree of interreaction exists between and within the twenty defined sub—growth variables. In addition, various degrees of interrelationships exist between any given number of sub-growth vari- ables. Furthermore, many tangible and intangible growth factors and influences not mentioned or dealt with in this study may exert an undetermined degree of influence of real prOperty value change. Growth factors related to social, economic, political and cultural consider- ations constitute the entire institutional framework of policy and 116 117 decision making which governs nearly every aSpect of our lives. Yet it is virtually impossible to separate these considerations from the urban growth variables as agents which influence real prOperty value change. The two conjunctive statistical techniques used in this study could only detect the influence of one singularly defined vari- able upon value change. The techniques used could not separate or distinguish between the many forces which interreact with any given growth variable as agents of real property value change. However, this limitation is experienced by most research studies which attempt to analyze any given aspect of change in a dynamic evolving urban society. Another question which arises is the possibility that the findings of the entire investigation might have been different if subjected to different analytical techniques. No precise answers can be given or surmised for these inherent study limitations. The researcher feels that the findings of the investigation reflect the existing generalized urban growth pattern which appears to be mani- fested at this time and place. Further research and perhaps more advanced and SOphisticated analytical techniques and equipment may substantiate or diSprove the findings of this study. The validity and utility of this study cannot or should not be proved or disproved by this single investigation. Further refinement or possibly the introduction of new methods or considerations to the overall study methodology and procedure may further increase the functional utility and applicability of the study as a tool; a starting point for yet further different approaches to develOp methods and 118 techniques which would constitute a somewhat more unified, coherent and objective catalogue of planning tools. Only through a willingness to experiment and try new untested techniques for analysis and plan formulation can the planning pro- fession as a whole hOpe to interject more objectivity and less sub- jectivity in the overall planning process. It is the hope of the researcher that this study may prove to be a small step in this ultimate direction. Summary In this section the findings of this investigation will be pre- sented in summary form. For purposes of format the summary has been structured to the relative rank of real property value increase for each of the twenty sub-growth variables as a whole. Table 29 indi- cates the relative increase of real prOperty value by relative rank of real property change. Each rank indicates which sub-growth vari- able experienced a higher degree of value change compared to other sub—growth variables. Figure 12 depicts graphically the relative ranking of value change by area. All quarter sections irrespective of sample designation were ranked from highest to lowest relative increase. Each rank value was then coded and plotted. Each of the four rank values depicted on Table 29 and Map 12 will be treated and discussed separately. Highest Increase of Real PrOperty_Values 1955-1968 The highest or the first rank of real property value increase was 119 aowumcfinfiou cw Hmuouasofiuw< mHOuomaaoo mmauHHHu: ha mmmmmamHSm N mmu< q Hmwucoofiwwm Hmowoafium omow>umm uoz cowumswnEoo ca cowumchEoo mum>wm oz OHIH mam Hmfiuswpfimom mamwumuu< Hmooq ca wow>umm uw>wm omm m mou< m Hmofiumssou mmu .umumz coaumcHQEoo CH Hmwoumaaoo mHmHumuu< mumum %Hco mommmzmnmuuae OHIO HmfluumsocH paw Hmcofiwmm oow>uom mmu mmp< N cofiumcHnEoo cH HmwuumooGH cofiumcHoEoo Hmwucmvfimmm muouooHHou a“ mmo mmmo CHIN H Hmwoumesou xumpooomm umbqumumz mmu< wcHGoN aoflomuuommomuH mofiofiaflu: muo>Hm mHHom ommmuocH moam> xcmm womHImmmH mmmmuocH msam> zuquOpm Hmmm mo mcflxcmm xumEESm mm mqmbJA )43 MVIL4.V.F .<>\.L.><>. 7V7‘AW..V7 V . - I V #44:. 7 ._ 7 v u .. )1» or) IV I . )L4V1 (A . P En uca _nunu Awm »_=wm=mm d22¢ »_z==9 ;= 121 experienced by quarter sections traversed or influenced by: Soil Areas 2-10 in combination, the Cass River, serviced by a combination of water, sewer and gas utilities, serviced by secondary collectors and zoned to a combination of commercial, residential and industrial land uses. These five sub-growth variables experienced the highest increase in real property values between 1955 and 1968. It may be noteworthy that all quarter sections included in this ranking are geographically located in areas of the county which have experienced intensive urban develOpment activities. The qualitative attributes of each sub-growth variable in- cluded in this rank value will be considered separately. 1. .Sgilg - Soil area 2—10 is the highest ranked sub-growth vari- able within all soil groupings and is located and concentrated along major rivers in Saginaw County. Soil area 10 represents the county's floodplain, while soil area 2 can be considered as a grouping of clay loams with moderate limitations for urban development activities. It may be noteworthy to indicate that the second and third highest ranking of real property value increases for the soils category includes soil area 2 combined with soil area 10. This would indicate that soil area 10 as floodplain soil exerts a more discernible influence on real prOperty values than any other soil area or combination of soil areas. Due to periodic flooding and surface drainage problems the soil area characteristics of floodplain areas and soil areas in combination with floodplain areas cannot be considered as economically productive or suitable for intensive agricultural use. Therefore, it can be assumed that the increase of real prOperty values can be attributed more to factors not inherently related to soil area 10, or soil areas which 122 are in combination with soil area 10. Based on recent develOpment trends in Saginaw County, a considerable spill—over of population from the urban core area has taken place in the surrounding areas. Given the location of the urban core area within Saginaw, County, the floodplain areas as soil area 10, is represented by the Tittabawassee and Cass Rivers. These two major floodplains repre— sent a natural barrier to the expanding population. Additionally, the floodplains and the areas immediately adjacent to floodplains have certain unique qualities which cannot be found in other soil area combinations. The attraction of water, unique scenic and open space attributes related to floodplains have attracted extensive urban develOpment activities of primarily residential nature. Irrespective of the inherent danger of urban development activities on floodplain areas the relative increase of real property values of soil area 2—10 and other soil areas in combination with soil area 10 reflect the actual urban development activities which have taken place on the county's floodplains during the past thirteen-year period. 2. Rivers — As indicated on Table 29, areas traversed or in- fluenced by the Cass River also experienced the highest relative increase in real prOperty values during the thirteen-year period. This can be specifically attributed to the fact that soil areas ad— jacent to the Cass River have been classified as floodplain area and thus consist of soil area 10. Other factors which may exert an in- fluence on the high increase of real property values of areas traversed by the Cass River is the relatively undeve10ped nature of areas located in proximity to the Cass River. Only within the past three to five 123 years have urban develOpment pressures been exerted on areas adjacent to the river. These same urban development pressures were exerted on the Tittabawassee River some eight to twelve years ago. Thus in essence the real property values or areas adjacent to the Cass River have been "catching up" although belatedly to the real property values of areas located along the Tittabawassee River. 3. Utilities - Quarter sections serviced by a combination of the three major utilities also experienced the highest relative increase in real property values. Primarily quarter sections serviced by these three major utility systems (water, sewer and gas) also have experi— enced extensive urban development activities. Due to the basic nature of these urban develOpment activities, the installation of water lines, sewers and gas lines was accomplished in response to a critical need for adequate waste disposal, the need for adequate supply of potable water, and heating fuel. These utility services were provided to selected areas within Saginaw County in response to rapidly increasing population densities and the development of concentrated intensive land uses. In no instance were these three utility components installed prior to the development of any given area for urban land uses. 4. Transportation - Areas serviced and traversed by secondary collectors also experienced the highest increase of real prOperty values over the thirteen—year period. As compared to areas serviced by streets or highways with a different functional classification, the high increase of real property values experienced by secondary collectors can generally be related to the character and nature of the surrounding land use pattern. In Saginaw County, secondary collectors 124 traverse high density residential areas. Secondary collectors serve as connecting links with arterials and other major connectors. As such, secondary collectors traverse densely pOpulated areas and areas devoted exclusively to urban land uses or primarily of a residential nature. The entire quarter section sample would, therefore, include areas almost exclusively devoted to intensive urban land use categories. This would not be the case of the quarter section areas traversed or serviced by an arterial system. While an arterial system serves con- centrations of higher economic activity such as commercial and industrial land uses, the concentration of these higher economic land use activities would be relatively spotty and isolated. Additionally, a considerable number of quarter sections would be traversed which would not be devoted entirely to urban type land uses. Thus, the high increase of real property values in areas serviced by secondary collectors can be related to the constancy of high land values for the entire quarter section sample population. 5. Zoning — Quarter sections zoned to residential, commercial, and industrial land uses experienced the highest increase in real property values. The high increase in real property values for this sub—growth variable is related to the intensity of the land use pattern zoned to a combination of these three zoning classifications. In general, the high intensity zoned land use designation in Saginaw County confirms the existing land use pattern, and substantiates the effect of available water, sewer, and gas service upon real property value increases. All quarter sections in Saginaw County which were zoned in a combination of commercial, industrial and residential land 125 uses have been serviced by the three utility systems. Thus in this instance a close correlation exists between intensively zoned land use categories and the availability of the three major utility systems. Second Highest Increase of Real Property Values 1955-1968 The second ranked level of real prOperty value increase as depicted in Table 30 indicates that quarter sections traversed by the following five sub-growth variables experienced the second highest increase of real prOperty values over the thirteen year period. These second ranked sub—growth variables are: 1) Soil area 6—10; 2) Areas traversed by the Tittabawassee River; 3) Areas serviced by gas service only; 4) Areas zoned to a combination of industrial and commercial land uses; and 5) Areas traversed by highways classified as regional and state arterials. The attributes of each of these individual sub-growth vari- ables differ somewhat from those of the aforementioned sub-growth variables. 1. §9i1§_- Soil Area 6-10 differs from Soil Area 2-10 primarily in terms of suitability for development and the geographic location and distribution of soil area 6 in relation to the urban and urbanizing areas. As with the highest ranked soils category, Soil Area 6-10 still represents quarter sections which have a surface area composed of a combination of two different soil areas. Soil Area 6 does not differ significantly from Soil Area 2, other than in it's relative distribution in relation to the urban areas within the county. It may also be note- worthy to indicate that as with the highest ranked soils category, the second highest ranked soils category represents a combination of flood- plain soils. 126 2. Rivers — A second highest increase of real prOperty values was experienced by areas adjacent to or traversed by the Tittabawassee River. Again a striking similarity exists between areas traversed by the Tittabawassee River and areas traversed by the Cass River. As already stated, areas located adjacent to the Tittabawassee River ex- perienced an intensive rate of urban growth prior to 1955, while urban growth in areas located adjacent or in proximity to the Cass River have been of a more recent nature. Due to the diminished availability of suitable open develOpable areas near the Tittabawassee River, speculative land develOpment pressures and development activities have been somewhat less intensive than in areas adjacent to the Cass River. Another factor which exerts an influence on the relative rate of real prOperty value increase is the relative location of the Tittabawassee River to the "grain" of the emerging urban develOpment pattern. Due to its north- westerly direction, the Tittabawassee River represents less of a natural obstacle to pOpulation spillover than the Cass River. In general, urban develOpment activities in the western part of the county have taken a northwesterly course. As such the direction of the urban growth pattern follows the general direction of the Tittabawassee. In contrast, the Cass River generally extends in an east-west direction and cuts directly across the path or grain of the urban development pattern emerging from the eastern part of the older urbanized area. This direction of urban growth has taken place in response to the I-75 expressway and to the construction of major General Motors manufacturing plants in Buena Vista Township and Bridgeport Township. The Cass River thus is directly located in the path of the emerging pattern of urban growth. This is 127 more conducive for a higher rate of real property value increase than the semi~deve10ped floodplain areas adjacent to the Tittabawassee River. 3. Utilities — Quarter sections serviced by gas utility lines experienced a somewhat lesser degree of increase in real property values than quarter sections serviced by a combination of water, sewer and gas utilities. Primarily the main attributing factor for the second highest increase in real property values of areas serviced by gas can be related to the fact that gas service is installed by private con- cerns in reSponse to a clearly defined market area. As with the highest ranked utility category, the need and demand for gas service existed prior to the installation of gas lines. Before gas service is provided to any area, extensive market surveys are conducted to determine its economic feasibility. In this particular instance, the urban develop- ment pattern must be sufficient to warrant installation of this utility. It would seem reasonable to assert that the provision of gas service would increase the real prOperty value of any given area. The degree of actual influence in this regard would require further study. 4. Transportation ~ In the overall transportation category, quarter sections traversed by regional and state arterials experienced the second highest ranking in real prOperty values between 1955 and 1967. As with the foregoing ranked transportation sub-growth variable, the differences in characteristics in this sub-growth variable are easily discernible. In comparison to secondary collectors, regional and state arterials serve major centers of activity in the county, whereas secondary collectors service more limited portions of the urban-areas. State and Regional arterials carry a majority of total urban area 128 travel desires as well as the bulk of trips desiring to by-pass the central urban core area. Another attribute of regional and state arterials is their continuity between regions. Secondary collectors tend to be restricted or limited to a smaller area. 5. Zoning — The next sub—growth variable which experienced a second highest increase in real prOperty value were quarter sections zoned to a combination of commercial and industrial land uses. The primary factors for this are the basic nature and quality of quarter sections zoned to a combination of industrial and commercial land uses. Generally, land uses thus zoned are located in proximity to state and regional arterials and represent the older industrial and commercial areas within Saginaw County. Other factors related to the second highest increase in real prOperty values are the traffic volumes and the enlarged market area served by state and regional arterials. Both land use activities require a greater degree of accessibility than residential areas. The relationship of commercial and industrial land uses to state and regional arterials is easily discernible by development trends along major arterials leading into major urbanized areas in the State of Michigan. Another contributing factor for the increase of real property values in this sub-growth category is the desire of local governmental units to increase the tax base. Due to the lack of other suitable sites for commercial and industrial land use activities, each local governmental unit has designated areas directly adjacent to the state and regional arterial system for commercial or industrial land uses. 129 Based upon a survey conducted by the Saginaw County MetrOpolitan Planning Commission, 73 percent of all land areas adjacent to state or regional arterials have been zoned for either commercial or in— dustrial land uses. The remaining 27 percent represents a mixture of residential land uses and a wide assortment of existing commercial land uses. Third Highest Increase of Real PrOperty Values 1955-1968 The third highest increase of real prOperty values for the next five sub-growth variables were: 1) Soil Area 1-10; 2) Areas tra- versed by the Bad River, or not affected by any river or stream; 3) Areas serviced by water and gas utility lines; 4) Areas traversed by local collectors; and 5) Areas zoned to a combination of commercial and residential land uses. This entire ranking of real prOperty value increase, as with the foregoing two value rankings, is related to the relative character of areas which have been affected by these five sub—growth variables. As a whole, the entire area, which is depicted on Figure 12, is generally characterized by a mixture of rural and urban land uses. The semi-rural nature of the entire area can be attributed to the peripheral growth influence exerted from urban development activities which have taken place immediately ad— jacent to the older urbanized areas. Over the thirteen-year period this area has experienced a transition from an entirely rural to a semi—rural or urban character. More specifically, the attributes of each sub-growth variable in this value ranking, when compared to the second highest rank in real property value increase, substantiate the basic land use characteristics of the area. 130 l. Iggils - Soil Area 7 along with Soil Area l-lO represent two basic soil areas which have experienced an equal increase of real property values over the thirteen—year period. While the character- istics of the two soil groupings differ in terms of suitability for agricultural or urban land uses (see Figure 4), they are located and distributed very similarly in relation to the urban and urbanizing areas. Again, the increase of real property values in these two soil areas is more strongly related to the geographical and locational as- pects than to the actual soil characteristics. 2. .Eixsis - Quarter section areas traversed by the Bad River or by no rivers at all also experienced a third highest increase in real property values. This indicates that the Bad River exerts little in- fluence on the rate of real prOperty value increase. This can be attributed to the basic location and character of the river. The entire stream traverses an entirely rural area with no urban con- centrations of any kind. Additionally, the stream does not have the basic characteristics desirable for intensive land use development activities. The relatively rural areas traversed, along with the distance from any concentrations of urban activity, account for the equal increase of real property values in areas not traversed by a stream. It can thus be assumed that the real prOperty value increase in this particular subrgrowth category can be more related to the inflation of land values than to any attribute manifested by the Bad River. 3. Utilities — Quarter sections serviced by water and gas also experienced a third highest increase in real property values over 131 the thirteen-year period. This increase can be more equitably related to characteristics of areas serviced than to the actual influence of this sub-growth variable itself. Areas serviced by a combination of water and gas utilities tend to be geographically located between the urban core and the smaller urban concentrations represented by the City of Frankenmuth, and the Villages of St. Charles, Chesaning, Merrill, Shields, Freeland and Hemlock. Rural areas located between these smaller urban areas and the Saginaw Metropolitan Area are thus also serviced. Thus, in this instance, the availability of these two utility services cannot be attributed to either market demand or in- tensity of urban land uses. The criteria applied to both the first and second highest ranking of value increase cannot be applied to the sample areas serviced by a combination of gas and water utilities only. 4. Transportation - In the tranSportation category, quarter sections serviced by local arterials ranked third highest in terms of relative real property value change for the thirteen—year period. Local collectors provide lesser arterial service at a local level; more emphasis in placed on land access than in any other transportation category. In Saginaw County, local arterials constitute primary county roads and minor por- tions of the road system in the semi-urbanized areas. The relative in— crease of real property values in this instance can be related more to the adjacent land use pattern than to the basic qualities of the local arterial system. 5. Zoning - Quarter sections zoned to a combination of residential and commercial land uses eXperienced a third highest increase in real property values. This sample of quarter sections included primarily 132 existing commercial land uses, such as small grocery stores, gasoline stations and small service shops located at main intersections of local arterial routes. Often these commercial land uses are service centers for the surrounding area. The actual commercial zoned areas in this quarter section sample represent existing commercial land uses in combination with isolated residential and open space land uses. In many instances the residential zoning designation is not reflective of either residential develOpment potential or the existing land use character of the area. Fourth Highest Increase of Real Property Values 1955-1968 The fourth or the lowest increase of real prOperty values has taken place in what can be defined as open Space and agricultural areas in the county. Urban development activities that have taken place in these two land use categories consists primarily of single family housing. In terms of location, the quarter section samples for each of the five sub—growth variables included in this ranking are not influenced by any urban develOpment activities. The quarter section samples included in this ranking are too remote for either land speculation or any other land use but single family housing and Open space. The qualitative attributes of each of the five sub-growth variables included in this ranking are as follows: 1. §pil§_- Soil Are 2 was the lowest ranked sub-growth variable in the overall soils grouping in terms of relative rank of real prOperty value change. Quarter sections included in Soil Area 2 con- stitute the bulk of prime agricultural soils in Saginaw County. This soil area has slight limitations for agricultural uses but severe 133 limitations for urban development activities. 2. .3122EE - Quarter sections traversed by the Shiawassee River also experienced the lowest relative increase in real property values over the thirteen-year period. Again, areas traversed by the Shiawassee River are not conducive to urban develOpment activities nor do they hold any promise for future develOpment activities. Large areas traversed by the Shiawassee River are located in the Shiawassee Wildlife Game Refuge area and thus permanently protected from private develOpment activities. This, plus the extremely adverse drainage and periodic flooding of the adjacent land areas, precludes any extensive development activities at this time. Areas traversed by the Shiawassee River are remotely located from the urbanized areas in the county, and generally are not served by any public utility (excluding electricity). Access to these areas is haphazard over predominantly unimproved roads and trails. 3. Utilitigs - As can be surmised, quarter sections not serviced by any of the three utility services either singularly or in combination experienced the least increase in real property value over the thirteen- year period. Areas not serviced by any of the three utilities have some attributes in common with areas included in the sample quarter sections of the soils category and the Shiawassee River. Areas not served by utilities are more remote in terms of location and distance from the nearest urban concentration. Due to other factors such as soil charac- teristics, physiographic features, and general amenities these areas did not experience the same rate of development as the foregoing dis- cussed rankings of real property value increase. 134 4. Transportation - Principal collectors also ranked lowest in the rate of real prOperty value change. Roads designed as principal collectors provide service between minor pOpulation and economic centers within the county. Traffic mobility and trip continuity are not as essential as on other road designations. Access controls are not provided, thereby permitting a high level of service to adjacent properties. 5. Zoning - Quarter sections zoned to a combination of residential and agricultural land uses also ranked lowest in relative real property value increase. This low increase is primarily the result of inflation of real prOperty values. In general terms, both zoning designations as defined and used in Saginaw County allow a very broad range of land uses. The prime restriction included in these zoning designations is the prohibition against junkyards and specific commercial uses. In many instances both zoning designations represent a "catch-all" for all other land uses contained in the current rural zoning ordinance for townships and villages in Saginaw County. Conclusions The three major null hypotheses tested in the investigation were diSproved by the results of the study. The first null hypothesis was disproved for each of the five major urban growth variables in that significant statistical changes in real prOperty value did occur be- tween 1955 and 1968. These changes could be attributed to the charac- teristics of each major urban growth variable. The changes could also positively be attributed to the characteristics of the sub—growth 135 variables defined to a major urban growth variable. The second null hypothesis was disproved in that the mean acre real property value between 1955 and 1968 did not remain equal for all the sample pOpulations included in each major growth variable. This indicates that each growth variable exerted a different rate of change upon the mean acre value for each quarter section in the county. The third null hypothesis was also disproved in that no inter- reaction effects could be discerned between the first and second null hypotheses that were tested. All mean acre real property values increased proportionally, although not equally during the intervening thirteen-year period. Overall, the study results seem to suggest that the degree of real property value change is closely related to the intensity of the existing land use pattern. The study results suggest that very little if any correlation exists between the basic natural characteristics of the land and change in real prOperty values. Manmade features and desires seem to have a greater effect on real property value change than adverse physiographic conditions. The study results as depicted on Map 12 also suggest that a posi- tive relationship exists between the proximity of intensive land use activities and real prOperty value change of adjacent land areas. 136 Application of the Study Results to Land Use Development Decisions The study results have demonstrated that a significant statistical relationship exists between the increase of real prOperty values to the differing qualitative characteristics of the five selected growth variable. This differential increase of real property values over the thirteen-year period has three basic applications to the formulation of land use develOpment decisions. An important assumption which must be accepted as true in the appli- cation of the study results is that the differing qualitative influence of each growth variable on the change of real property values will con- tinue to hold true in the future. Another assumption which must be accepted is the relationship of real property value change to land use intensity. Description of practical application of the study procedure and findings to the formulation of land use develOpment decisions is as follows: 1. Implementation of local develOpment plans. A basic problem which confronts local planning commissions is the imple- mentation of adopted land use development plans. The study has shown that the differing rates of real property value increase can be related to the differing qualitative attri— butes of each discussed growth variable. By creating or providing selected attributes of one or more growth variables to a given area, a desired land use intensity can be created; 137 reflective of the increase in real prOperty values. Through a public capital improvements program, the provisions of man-made growth variables such as utility and transportation systems; future land use develOpment activities can be channelled as to conform to the intent of the comprehensive land use plan. Maximizing use of public resources in the provision of public improvements and services. The increase of real property values for given locations in Saginaw County can serve as an index for gauging the future demand for extensive capital im- provements projects and public services. Public demands for parks, roads, utilities, and public services are generated in response to the needs of developing areas. The rate of future develOpment in turn is closely correlated with existing and the probable rate of real prOperty value increase. The need for public improvements and services can thus be interpreted or planned for. Thus, areas which have experienced the highest rate of real property value increase over the thirteen-year period will also demand a priority in the allocation of public funds and resources. Areas which experienced the lowest in- crease of real prOperty value will require a commensurate lesser share of available public resources. The study results can thus be considered as a tool in capital improvements budgeting. Objective use of governmental police powers. In certain instances, selected land use develOpment activities can be termed as detri- mental to the public welfare. This may especially hold true for 138 Saginaw County. A heavy public liability may be incurred if the current rate on the floodplain areas is to continue as reflected by the rate of real prOperty value increase. Given the recreational and open space land use potential and the current undeveloped nature of county floodplains, the police powers of zoning and eminent domain can still be used without extensive public counter pressures. By prohibiting all urban development activities on floodplains through the zoning of floodplain areas in local zoning ordinances a potential public liability related to floodplain development may be averted. Also, through a combined use of the power of eminent domain and public Spending power, selected portions of the flood— plain areas can be acquired and converted for public recreational purposes. Public eXpenditures required to convert portions of floodplains to public recreational use will continue to in- crease over time. As indicated by study results, the higher the current value or use, the higher the probable future rate of real prOperty value increase. Public spending and police powers could similarly be used to deter the growth of areas adjudged to be contrary to the public welfare. Isolated and scattered intensive land use activities requiring or pre- supposing extensive public resources or services could be cited as an example. The study results could be used as a basis to facilitate a more objective use of governmental powers. *** 139 BIBLIOGRAPHY Books Ackoff, Russell L. Scientific Methods in Optimizing Applied Research Decisions. New York; John Wiley and Sons, 1960. Alonso, William. Location and Land Use: Toward a General Theory of Land Rent. Cambridge; The Harvard University Press, 1964 Barlowe, Raleigh. Land Resource Economics. Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey; Prentice Hall, Inc., 1958. Chapin, Stuart F., Jr. Urban Land Use Planning. 2nd ed. Urbana: University of Illinois Press. 1965. Ely, Richard T. and Wehrwein, George S. Land Economics. New York: George Braziller., 1961. Gibson, W. L., Hildreth R. J., and Wunderlich, Gene. 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