 

SEASONAL VARlAT'lON OF
"HIGAN FARM PRICES

 

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152518

This is to certify that the

1 thesis entitled

ﬂ smscrgu. ‘J’AEIATION OF MICHIGAN FARM PRICES

presented by

: Lawrence Leroy Boger
& k ‘ has been accepted towards fulfillment

of the requirements for

xii-"A“P'. M. A. . Economics (‘15-)
_ a .. _ _____degree In

 

 

Major professor

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SEASONAL VARIATION OF MICHIGAN FARM PRICES

By
LA‘JJREI‘ICE LEROY BOGER

A THESIS
Submitted to the School 6f Graduate Studies of Michigan
State College of Agriculture and Applied Science
in partial fulfillment of the requirements
for the degree of

MASTER OF ARTS
Department of Economics

1948

THE,.

C-l'f‘

 

 

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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

The author wishes to express his gratitude to all
who helped in the preparation of this manuscript. Valu-
able assistance was given by Professors C. M. Hardin and
M. E. Cravens of the Agricultural Economics Department.
Their guidance and reading of the entire manuscript and
their suggestions were gratefully appreciated. Other mem-
bers of the Agricultural Economics Department gave gener-
ously of their time on many of the problems encountered
from time to time.

Also, to C. J. Borum and other personnel of the
Office of the State Agricultural Statistician, the author
wishes to express his thanks for their aid in the collec-
tion of much of the essential data.

The author wishes to acknowledge the assistance
given by MTs. Mildred Galloway and Mrs. Nancy'Waldo of the
clerical staff of the Agricultural Economics Department in
the statistical analysis of most of the data, and also the
assistance given by Mrs. Norma Graim for her final typing
of the manuscript.

Finally, the author is indebted to his wife for
her patience and the sincere encouragement extended to him
during all the stages of the preparation of this piece of
work.

The author, of course, assumes full reSponsibility
for any errors that may be present in this manuscript.

LAWREIY-CE LEROY BOGER
196857

ﬁ‘ ‘“ 1'1 t’m"“'rr‘\ "
T ’LJL Ci" CO» 1.443410
ﬂ

UCTIOIE o o o o o o o o I c o o o o o o o c o c l

U

IICTRO

Purpose and Utility of Study . . . . . . . . . .

[UH

Sources and Scope of Data . . . . . . . . . . . .
I'Ie tilOd or Pro cedure O 0 O O O O O O O O 0 O O O I
Definition of Terms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

PART I o LBUOR CROPS o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o

“'x] 0\ W U!

Corn 0 O O I O O O O O O O O O O O O O I O O O O
E’IiI-lter find-eat O O O I O O O O O O O O O O O O O 0 ll

OCvtS O O O O O 0 O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O 0 17

PART II. LIVESTSCK AID LIIJETOCK PRSDUGTS
Hogs . . . . . . . .‘. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53
Cattle . . . . . . . . . .
Calves . . . . . . . . . .
Milk . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75
Butter and Butterfa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80
Sheep . . . .
Lambs . . . . . . . .
Wool . . . . . . . . . . 00

Poultry . . . . . . . .

.- ér’. ‘
Laggzh’ o c o o c o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o lo I

. . it'll V
I all I l I l I all I l l I Ill. '7 l I
. All \ Illlll [Ill [1 I ll! It (Ill- Ill lll'll I III :l l l ‘
.1‘ I‘ll. llllt I

APPEIDIX A -

APEEHD X B -

APPEIDIX C —

 

Tasha OF COI-I’i‘EITTS - (Cont'd)

r a.
__

Illustration of Method Used in the
Computation of the Index of Average

Seasonal Variation . . . . . . . . . ll4

he Use of A Circular Graph for

Showing Average Seasonal Variation . 123
Supplementary Table . . , . . . , . 127

ii

TABLE
NUMBER

II

III

1v

VI

VII

LIST OF TABLES

 

PAGE

CORN: Average Seasonal Variation of Michigan
Farm Prices and Index of Irregularity, l933-

l942 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

\O

WINTER.WHEAT: Average Seasonal Variation of
Michigan Farm Prices and Index of Irregularity,

1933-1942 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

OATS: Average Seasonal Variation of Michigan
Farm Prices and Index of Irregularity, l933-

1942 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . l7

BARLEY: Average Seasonal Variation of Michigan
Farm Prices and Index of Irregularity, l933-

l94d C O 0 O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O 22

REE: Average Seasonal Variation of Michigan
Farm Prices and Index of Irregularity, 1933-

1.942 0 O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O 0 O _. 27

FIELD BEANS: Average Seasonal Variation of
Michigan Farm Prices and Index of Irregularity,

1933-1-944 o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o 32

'POTATOES: Average Seasonal Variation of

Michigan Farm Prices and Index of Irregularity,
1933-1942 0 O O O O O O O 0 O O O O O O O O O 37

iii

TABLE
IUMEEB

VIII

XI

XIII

XIV

LIST OF TABLES - (Cont'd)

HAI: Average Seasonal Variation of Michigan
Farm Prices and Index of Irregularity, 1933-

1942 o o o o o o o o o o o o o a. o o o, o o o

APPLES: Average Seasonal Variation of

Michigan Farm Prices and Index of Irregular-

ity, 193341942 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

HOGS: Average Seasonal Variation of Michigan

Farm Prices and Index of Irregularity, l933-

J"9“.2 O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O 0 O O O

CATTLE: Average Seasonal Variation of

PAGE

55

Michigan Farm Prices and Index of Irregularity,

1933-1942 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

59

CALVES: Average Seasonal Variation of Michigan

Farm Prices and Index of Irregularity, 1933-
1942 O O O O O O O O O O O 0

O O O O O O O 0

MILK: Average Seasonal Variation of Michigan

Farm Prices and Index of Irregularity, 1933-

1942 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

7o

75

BUTTER: .Average Seasonal Variation of Michigan

Farm Prices and Index of Irregularity, 1933-

1942 O O ' C O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O 0

iv

80

TABLE

1 ? 1| I.“ T“ R
l“ UL‘LJ—l &
m

XV

XVI

XVII

XVIII

3(1):

Rrxr
aux.

LIST 0? T.3LZS - (Cont'd)

 

BUTTERFAT: Average Seasonal Variation of
Mich gan Farm Prices and Index of Irregu-

larit‘y” 1933-1942 0 o o o o o o o o o o o

SHEEP: Average Seasonal Variation of
Michigan Farm Prices and Index of Irregu-

larity, 41-933-:1-942 o o o o o o o o o o o o

<:

LAMBS: Average Sea onal ariation of

D")

Michigan Farm Prices and Index of Irregu-

larity,, 1933-1942 0 o o o o o o o o o o

WOOL: Average Seasonal Variation of
Michigan Farm Prices and Index of Irregu-

larity, 1933-1942 . . . . . .

POULTRY: Average Seasonal Variation of
Michigan Farm Prices and Index of Irregu-

larity, 1933-1942 . . . . . . .

-.—",
L 'I‘

EJGS: Average Seasonal Variation of
Michigan Farm Prices and Index of Irregu-

larity, 1933-1942 . . . . . . .

83

89

94

\O
\O

102

107

LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS

FIGURE
NUMBER gggg

1

CO T: Index of Average Seasonal Variation of
Michigan Farm Prices and Zone of Irregularity,

1933-1942 0 o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o c 8

CORN: Indexes of Average Seasonal Variation
of Michigan Farm Prices, l9lU-l919 and 1933-

1942 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9a

CORN: Indexes of Average Seasonal Variation
of Michigan Farm Prices for Years Following
the Harvest of Five Large Crops and Four Small

Crops Selected from the Years, 1923-1942 . . 10

WINTER WHEAT: Index of Average Seasonal
Variation of Michigan Farm Prices and Zone of

Irregularity, 1933-1942 . . . . . . . . . . . 12

WINTER WHEAT: Indexes of Average Seasonal
Variation of Michigan Farm Prices, l9lO-l9l9

and 1933-1942 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . l4

WINTER.WHEAT: Indexes of Average Seasonal
Variation of Michigan Farm Prices for Years
Following the Harvest of Seven.Large Crops and
Five Small Crops Selected from the Years l923-

l94é . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16

vi

LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS - (Cont'd)
FIGURE
NUMBER PAGE

 

7 OATS: Index of Average Seasonal Variation of
Michigan Farm Prices and Zone of Irregularity,
1933-1942 0 o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o 15

S OATS: Indexes of Average Seasonal Variation
of Michigan Farm Prices, l910-l9l9 and 1933-
1942 o o o o o c o o o o o o o o o c o o o 0 2O

9 OATS: Indexes of Average Seasonal Variation
of Michigan Farm Prices for Years FOllowing
the Harvest of Six Large CrOps and Four Small

CrOps Selected from the Years l923-1942 . . , 21

10 BARLEY: Index of Average Seasonal Variation
of Michigan Farm Prices and Zone Of Irregul-

arity, 1933-1942 0 o o o o o o o o o o o o o 23

ll BARLEY: Indexes of Average Seasonal Variation
of Michigan Farm Prices, 1910-l919 and 1933-

1942 o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o 25

12 BARLEY: Indexes of Average Seasonal Variation
of Michigan Farm Prices for Years F0llowing the
Harvest of Nine Large CrOps and Eight Small

Crops Selected from the Years l923-l942 . . . 26

13 RXE: Index of Average Seasonal Variation of
Michigan Farm Prices and Zone of Irregularity,

1933-1942 0 o o o o o o o o 26

LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS - (Cont'd)

—.

FIGURE
NUMBER PAGE

14 REE: Indexes of Average Seasonal Variation

15

l6

17

18

i9

of Michigan Farm Prices, 1910-1919 and 1933-
1942 O O O O O O 0 O O O O O 0 O O O O 0 O O 30

REE: Indexes of Average Seasonal Variation
of Michigan Farm Prices for Years FOllowing
the Harvest of Eight Large CrOps and Six
Small Crops Selected from the Years 1923-

1942 O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O 31

FIELD BEANS: Index of Average Seasonal
Variation of Michigan Farm Prices and Zone of

Irregularity, i933-1942 o o o o o c o o o o 33

FIELD BEANS: Indexes of Average Seasonal
Variation of Michigan Farm Prices, lylu-l919

and 19:3-1942 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35

FIELD BEANS: Indexes of Average Seasonal
Variation of Michigan Farm Prices for Years
Following the Harvest of Seven.Large CrOps

and Nine Small Crops Selected from the Years
1923-1942 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36

POTATOES: Index of Average Seasonal Varia-
tion of Michigan Farm Prices and Zone of

Irregularity, 1933-l942 . . . . . . . . . . 58

viii

FIGURE

LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS - (Cont'd)

p:

 

NUMBER Egg;

20

21

23

24

25

26

POTATOES: Indexes of Average Seasonal
Variation of Michigan Farm Prices, 1910-1919

and “1-953-194‘: o o o o o o o o o o o o c o o o 0 [IO

POTATOES: Indexes of Average Seasonal Varia-
tion of Michigan Farm Prices for Years Follow-
ing the Harvest of Two Large CrOps and Three

Small Crops Selected from l923-1942 . . . . . . 41

HAY: Index of Average Seasonal Variation of
Michigan Farm Prices and Zone of Irregularity,

1935-1942 0 o o o o o o o o o o o c o o o o o o 45

HAY: Indexes of Average Seasonal Variation of

Michigan Farm Prices, lglu-1919 and 1933-1942 . 45

HAY: Indexes of Average Seasonal Variation of
Michigan Farm Prices for Years Following the
Harvest of Four Large CrOps and Five Small

Crops Selected from the Years 1923-l942 . . . . 47

APPLES: Index of Average Seasonal Variation of
Michigan Farm Prices and Zone of Irregularity,

1933-‘L942 '0 o o o o o o o o o o c o o o o o o o 48

APPLES: Indexes of Average Seasonal Variation
of Michigan Farm Prices, i9lU-1919 and'l933-

1942 O O O O O O O O O O O O O 0 O O O O 0 0 0 50

ix

LIST or ILLUSTRATIONS - (Cont'd)

~

 

FIGURE
NUMBER PAGE

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

APPLES: Indexes of Average Seasonal Varia-
tion of Micnigan Farm Prices for Years
Following the Harvest of Five Large CrOps

and Seven Small Crops Selected from the Years

l9dj-l94d o o c o o o o o o o o o o o o o o O 52

HOGS: Index of Average Seasonal Variation of
Michigan Farm Prices and Zone of Irregularity,

19jj-1942 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54

HUGS: Indexes of Average Seasonal Variation
of Michigan Farm Prices, lQIO-lyly and 1933-

'L942 0 O O O O O O O O O O O O 0 O O O O O O 57

HOGS: Indexes of Average Seasonal Variation
of Michigan Farm Prices for Six Years of Rising
Prices and Five years of Falling Prices

Selected from the Years l9dj-l942 . . . . . . 58

CATTLE: Index of Average Seasonal Variation of
Michigan Farm Prices and Zone of Irregularity,

1953-194a . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6O

CATTLE: Indexes of Average Seasonal Variation
of Michigan Farm Prices, 1910-19l9 and 1933-

1942 . . . . . . . . . 62

O O O O O O O O 0 O O

CATTLE: Indexes of Average Seasonal Variation
of Michigan Farm Prices for Six Years of Rising
Prices and Five Years of Falling Prices

Selected from the Years l923-1942 , 53

LIST or ILLUSTRATIOLS - (Cont'd)

FIGURE
NUI‘JIEER gig-g

34 CATTLE: Index of Average Seasonal Variation
In the Prices of Choice and Prime Grade Steers
at Chicago and Zone of Irregularity, 1933-

1942 O O O O O O O 0 O 0 O O O O O O O O O O O 64

35 CATTLE: Index of Average Seasonal Variation
In the Prices of Good Grade Steers at Chicago
and Zone of Irregularity, 1933-1942 . , . . . 65

36 CATTLE: Index of Average Seasonal Variation
In the Prices of Medium Grade Steers at Chicago

and Zone of Irregularity, 1933-1942 . , , , , O7

37 CATTLE: Index of Average Seasonal Variation
In the Prices of Common Grade Steers at Chicago

and Zone of Irregularity, 1933-1942 . . . . . 98

38 CATTLE: Index of Average Seasonal Variation
Inthe Prices of Good Grade Cows at Chicago and

Zone of Irregularity, 1933-1942 . . . . . . . O9

39 CALVES: Index of Average Seasonal Variation
of Michigan Farm Prices and Zones of Irregular-

ity, 1933-1942 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71

40 CALVES: Indexes of Average Seasonal Variation
of Michigan Farm Prices, 1910-1919 and 1933-

1942 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73

xi

FIGURE

LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS — (Cont'd)

NUMBER

41

42

43

44

45

2%

47

CALVE": Indexes of Average Seasonal Varia-
tion of Michigan Farm Prices for Six Years
of Rising Prices and Five Years of Falling

Prices Selected From the Years 1923-1942 . .

MILK: Index of Average Seasonal Variation
of Michigan Farm Prices and Zone of Irregu-

larity, 1933-1942 . . . . . . . . . . . . .

MILE: Index of Average Seasonal Variation
of Michigan Farm Prices, 1910-1919 and 1933-

3"9L:.2 0 O O O - O O O O O O O 0

MILK: Indexes of Average Seasonal Variation
of Michigan Farm Prices for Six Years of
Rising Prices and Five Years of Falling

Prices Selected From the Years, 1923-1942 .

BUTTER: Index of Average Seasonal Variation
of Michigan Farm.Prices and Zone of Irregular-

ity, 1933-i942 . . . . . . . . . . .,. . . .

BUTTERFAT: Index of Average Seasonal VariaJ
tion of Michigan Farm Prices and Zone of Ir-

regularity, 1933-1942 . . . . . . . . . . .

BUTTER: Indexes of Average Seasonal Varia-
tion of Michigan Farm Prices, 1910-1919 and

1933-1942 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

xii

 

74-

76

76

79

61

b2

84

LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS _ (Cont'd)

FIGURE a
NUMBER EASE

48 BUTTER: Indexes of Average Seasonal Varia-
tion of Michigan Farm Prices for Six Years Of
Rising Prices and Five Years of Falling

Prices Selected From the Years l923-1942 . , 85

49 BUTTEPFAT: Indexes of Average Seasonal Vari-
ation of Michigan Farm Prices for S x Years
of Rising Prices and Five Years of Falling

Prices Selected from the Years 1923-1942 . . 86

50 SHEEP: Index of Average Seasonal Variation
of Michigan Farm Prices and Zone of Irregular-

it‘ , 1.933-1942 o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o 68

51 SHEEP: Indexes of Average Seasonal Variation
of Michigan Farm Prices, 1910-1919 and 1933-

1942 0 o o O o O o o o o o o o o o o o o o g 90

52 SHEEP: Indexes of Average Seasonal Variation
of Michigan Farm Prices for Six Years of Rising
Prices and Five Years of Falling Prices

Selected From the Years l923-1942 . . . . . . 92

53 LAMBS: Index of Average Seasonal Variation of

Michigan Farm Prices and Zone of Irregularity,

1933’1942 o o o o o o o o o o o c o o o o o 0 93

54 LAMBS: Indexes of Average Seasonal Variation
of Michigan Farm Prices, 1910-1919 and 1933-
1942 o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o c 95

xiii

LIST or ILLUSTRATIONS - (Cont'd)

FIGURE
NUMBER PAGE

55 LAMBS: Indexes of Average Seasonal Variation
of Michigan Farm Prices for Six Years of
Rising Prices and Five Years of Falling Prices

Selected From the Years 1923-1942 . . . . . . 97

5c WOOL: Index of Average Seasonal variation of
Michigan Farm Prices and Zone of Irregularity,

1933-1942 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98

57 WOOL: Indexes of Average Seasonal Variation
of Michigan Farm Prices, 1910—1919 and 1933-

1942 0 O O 0 o o o I o 0 o o o o o o o o o o o 100

58 WOOL: Indexes of Average Seasonal Variation
of Michigan Farm Prices for Six Years of Ris-
ing Prices and Five Years of Falling Prices
Selected From the Years 1923-1942 . . . . . . 101

59 POULTRY: Index of Average Seasonal Variation
of Michigan Farm Prices and Zone of Irregular-

ity, i933-1942 o o o o o o o c o o o o o o o J-OB

6O POULTRX: Index of Average Seasonal Variation
of Michigan Farm Prices, 1910—1919 and 1933-
1942 0 O O O O O O O O O O O O O 0 O O O 0 O 105

61 POULTRX: Indexes of Average Seasonal Varia-
tion of Michigan Farm Prices for Six Years of
Rising Prices and Five Years of Falling Prices
Selected From the Years 1923-1942 . , . . . , 106

xiv

FIGURE
NUMBER

62

03

LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS - (Cont'd)

PAGE

EGGS: Index of Average Seaonsal Varia—

tion of Michigan Farm Prices and Zone of
Irregularity, i933-l942 . . . . . . . . . 108
EGGS: Indexes of Average Seasonal Vari-

ation of Michigan Farm Prices, 1910-1919

and 1933-1942 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110

64 EGGS: Indexes of Average Seasonal Varia-

tion of Michigan Farm Prices for Six Years

of Rising Prices and Five Years of Falling

Prices Selected From the Years 1923-1942 . lll

XV

INTRODUCTION

Purpose and Utility of Studx. The production of farm
products is seasonal, but consumers desire a supply the year
around. Consequently, someone must store these products to
meet the consumers' needs. Some products can be stored easi-
ly and ineXpensiver, while others which are highly perishable
are more difficult and costly to store. Generally Speaking,
prices of commodities vary throughout the year by the cost of

storing from one prOduction season to the nex .
ne seasonality of production and marketing in the United
States or the world as a whole often has more influence on~
the Michigan farm prices than does Michigan production and
marketing. Hence, geographic or Climatic conditions in
Michigan may mane it possible for Michigan farmers to market
their produce during the time of high seasonal prices.

Price movements during World War II were influenced by
artificial controls. These controls altered the amount of
seasonal variation by setting ceilings or floors on prices.
Since controls have been relaxed, seasonal price movements are
again approximating their pre-var pattern.

It is hOped tiat farmers, food processors, marketing
agencies, and others who buy, sell, or handle the major farm
products produced in Michigan can acquaint themselves with
these patterns and plan their marxeting programs accordingly.
It is not always advisable to produce farm products for the
highest prices, since the gain in price may be more than off-

set by higher costs.

Several factors, such as weather conditions, business
activity, and the trend of farm prices, alter the seasonal
price movement in any year. In some co.modities the varia-
tion in patterns from one year to the next is quite pronounced,
while others are approximately the same year after year. The
average adjuSted seasonal pattern should be applied in indiv-
idual years only after adjustments for current as well as pos—

sible future variations in economic conditions are made.

Source and Scope of Data. The Michigan farm prices used
in this study were those reported to the office of the State
Agricultural Statistician, Lansing, Mich gan. Monthly market-
ings were computed from data in the same office. Prices from
1910 to 1925 were tahen from Statistical Bulletin l5, “Prices
of Farm Products Received by Producers, he North Central
States", prepared by the Bureau of Agricultural Economics of
the United States Department of Agriculture. Cattle prices at
Chicago were published by the Production and Marketing Admin-
istration of the United States Department of Agriculture,
Production data concerning the Size of the United States crOp
by years were tahen from various issues of Agricultural
Statistics publisned annually by the United States Department
of Agriculture. Data on the prices received by farmers in the
United States were taken from "Agricultural Outlook Charts,
1947f,;repared by the Bureau of Agricultural Economics of the
United States Department of Agriculture,

The above sources of data were used to compute the aver-

age seasonal variation in prices for the 10 pre—control years

3
preceding World War II, and to compare the average seasonal
patterns of farm product prices during early and recent
periods, years of large and small crOps, and years of rising

or falling farm prices.

Method of Procedure. Monthly prices from 1910 to 1942
were adjusted for price cycles, price trends, and other price
movements.1 These adjusted prices were used to compute the
index of average seasonal variation for the periods 1910-1919
and 1933-1942, and for years of large crOps and small creps,
The actual prices received by Michigan farmers were used in
the computation of an unadjusted index of average seasonal
variation during periods of rising or falling farm prices.

Appropriate years were selected from the 20-year period,
1923 to 1942, to show the effect of a large or a small United
States crOp and also the effect of rising or falling farm

prices on the average seasonal price pattern in Michigan.
Total production and prices received by farmers in the United
States were used to determine the exact years that fell into
each classification.

In order to give a measure of the variation in the price
from the average seasonal pattern, the index of irregularity

was calculated for the years 1933 to 1942.

Definition of Terms. (a) Index of Irregularity: This
is a measure of the amount of variation in the price for a

given month from the average price prevailing in that month

 

l/A more detailed explanation of the statistical methods
used is included in Appendix A.

for the ten years, 1933 to 1942. Its value, added to and
subtracted from the index of the average price in a given
month gives an indication of the range of prices that pre-
vailed in that month for approximately seven out of ten years.
This is known as the zone of irregularity, and its value is
twice as great as the index of irregularity. Thus, if an
average monthly price was 110 percent of an average annual
price, and the index of irregularity was 5 percent, it would
mean that the price in that month varied between an index of
105 and 115 in approximately two-thirds of the years. The
width of the zone of irregularity would be 10 percent. The
smaller the value of the index of irregularity, the greater

is the conformity to the average seasonal pattern. When its
value is large, monthly prices in individual years varied con-
siderably from the average monthly price.

(b) Large Crop: A large crop was one that was 10 percent
or more above the average for the twenty years, 1923 to 1942,
in the United States.

(c) Average Crep: An average crOp was one that was less
than 10 percent above or below the average for the twenty
years, 1923 to 1942, in the United States.

(d) Small CrOp: A small crOp was one that was 10 percent
or more below the average for the twenty years, 1923 to 1942,
in the United States.

(c) Rising Prices: When all farm prices in the United

States rose 10 percent or more in any year, they were deemed

to be rising. On the basis of this classification, farm
prices rose an average of 20.0 percent in six years of
the twenty.

(f) Stable Prices: When all farm prices in the
United States rose or fell less than 10 percent in any year,
they were deemed to be stable. On the basis of this class-
ification, nine years of the twenty were years of stable
prices and the net movement was 2.0 percent upward.

(g) Falling Prices: When all farm prices in the
United States fell 10 percent or more in any year they were
deemed to be falling. 0n the basis of this classification,
farm prices fell an average of 23.2 percent in five years of
the twenty.

(h) Monthly Marketings: These figures represent the
average percent of the annual production that was moved to
market by Michigan farmers in any month. The percent pro-
duced monthly was used for the more perishable products,
_such as eggs and milk. The average percent of creamery
butter manufactured monthly was used as an indication of farm
butter marketings. For corn, average monthly purchases by

elevators were used as a guide, since actual monthly market-

ings by farmers were unavailable.

O\

P A R T I
MAJOR CROPS

Most of the major crops are harvested and ready for
market within a relatively short period of time. With the
exception of potatoes and apples, these crops can be stored
easily for a year or more.‘ Fresh apples and potatoes, be-
cause of their more perishable nature, must be moved into
consumption within a year since the quality deteriorates
rapidly after a few months in storage.. 0n the average, most
of the major creps are marketed within a few months follow-
ing harvest.

Normally, prices are lowest following the harvest season
and rise steadily throughout the year. This rise correSponds
to about what it costs to store these commodities from one
harvest to the nex . In particular years, prices may rise
more than normal, so that it becomes profitable to store.

For instance, when all farm prices are rising, the prices of
the major crops rise more than normal. 0n the other hand, if
all farm prices are falling, the prices of the major crops
usually rise less than normal or may even fall during the
year so that it becomes unprofitable to store. Storage costs
tend to be fixed and do not fluctuate so widely as prices.
The average seasonal pattern for the major crops was not, and
probably will not be, repeated regularly in individual years.
The decision as to whether or not to store in any year de—

pends upon the marhet price at the time of harvest and the

eXpected market price that will be determined by future
economic conditions.

For the staple creps, the cost of storage in any year
may be small if storage facilities are adequate and avail-
able. However, if storage facilities are not readily avail-
able and temporary storage, or public warehouse, facilities
must be used, the costs involved may not be offset by a
seasonal rise in price. Michigan is a feed deficit produc-
ing area. Thus, Michigan f rmers usually buy more grain than
they sell. ‘Seasonal price variations are important to those
farmers who must buy grain to fulfill their annual needs.
They should buy grain early in those years when the seasonal
rise is expected to be greater than normal and buy as needed
in those years when the price is expected to rise less than
enough to cover storage costs. The average seasonal varia-
tion in the prices of the major crops grown in.Michigan for

selected periOds from l910 to 1942 are reviewed below.
CORN

Seasonal Pattern. Corn prices have followed a rather nxpﬂnr
seasonal pattern, rising from a low in March to a high in
September (Figure l and Table I). The price rise was about
18 percent or about 12 cents per bushel for the period 1933-
1942. The greatest variation in prices from the usual sea-
sonal pattern occured during the summer and early winter
months. The average price rise throughout the year repre-

sented about what it cost to store corn. Even though there

 

wag]

/
Bor- - _ /
//5 1- S

I

 

C///

:;// "”///

s\\

50,11 1 1 J 1 I 1 1 l 1 1 1
./avr fistzlﬂﬁwr/ﬁar-/uk§y.4ﬂveuJ249I,4qgtdﬁyot'Chnflﬁkau'zlsc.

Figure l. CORN: Index of Average Seasonal Variation of
Michigan Farm Prices and Zone of Irregularity,
1933-1942.

 

Table I - CORE: Average Seasonal Variation of
Michigan Farm Prices and Index of
Irregularity, 1933-1942.

Ayerage Seasonal Variation of7Prices

 

 

 

 

Month : Index : Price per:Index of Ir-

: : bushel : regularity

(percentf' (dollarsTJ (percenti
January 94.1 .53 8.3
February 93.4 .53 7.7
MarCh 92.7 .62 7.2
April 96.8 .65 6.8
May 100 .8 .66 9 .7
June 101.6 .68 9.6
July 109.2 .73 13.5
August 110.7 .74 9.6
September 110.9 .74 5.5
October 101.9 .68 8.8
November 94.2 .63 10.9
December 93.7 .63 11.1
Average 100.0 .67 9.0

 

is considerable shrinkage involved when corn is stored,
the loss in weight isxsually offset by a higher price due
to a better grade when corn is sold on a graded basis.g/
Comparison 1910-1919 and 1933-1942. The seasonal
pattern has changed little from the period 1910-1919 to 1933-
1942 (Figure 2). The seasonal movement during 1933-1942
rose to a somewhat higher peak in the late summer and early
fall months, then fell a little more rapidly until the fol—
lowing March than it did in the period 1910-1919.
Size of CrOp. The size of the corn crop was a factor
influencing the degree of variation in the seasonal price
(Figure 3). There was less seasonal variation when the corn

cr0p was small than when the corn crop was large. The

greater variation following the harvest of a large crop was

 

g/L. J. Norton, University of Illinois Extension Circular
516 - "When Should Grain Be Marketed", July 1941. With in-
terest at 6 percent for 6 months, shrinkage in weight of
12.1 percent, and insurance and taxes for 8 months, 72 cent
corn in July is equivalent to 60 cent corn in November.

9a

 

A“?

ﬂ25

 

 

 

 

 

1 1 1 1 1 l 1 I 1 1 1 l ,
«QWV.Icéuh4¢ﬁZF/boﬁw44ngﬂlﬂe\JZ@y.Kke9\S:6M‘Cka/VOVTZJ¢CL

Figure 2. CORN: Indexes of Average Seasonal Variation of
Michigan Farm Prices, 1910-1919 and 1933-1942.

lO

 

 

 

 

 

 

molar
A“? p
40/198 Cro/o
.

/05 A‘ ” ..'\

\ “\‘.I

““5”: 0// Crop ,’ ’ '
#291 ’

‘--.---.“ ‘ ”’

$5.. ‘9 "’
.9C7 1 1 1 1, 1, 1 .1, ii. 1 1 1 1

 

 

<9ct.AkM< Algal/Eva lﬁ31i44ﬁzr/yan.ﬂlegu/ZWE:ch13/24cﬁz~ﬁgof

Figure 3. CORE: Indexes of Average Seasonal Variation of
Michigan Farm Prices for Years Fellowing the Harvest
of Five Large CrOps and Four Small Crops Selected
From the Years l923-1942.

ll

mostly due to the greater drOp in price in the fall and
winter months. There was little change in the months of
peak and low prices in years of lar rge or small crOps.
Summary and Conclusions. The average seasonal rise
in corn prices was just about sufficient to cover storage
costs even though a better grade could be e: pected. Sea-
sonal prices were more variable in 19 33-l 942 than in 1910-
1919. For Michigan farmers, it was more advantageous to
store corn for a longer period in those years when produc-
tion was high than in those years when production was low.
In years of low production, farmers tend to market their
livestock earlier, thus decreasing the demand for corn as

feed later in the marketing season.

Seasonal Pattern. The average seasonal variation

in the price of wheat was small and the variation between
years was relatively great (Figure 4 and Table II). On the
average, Wheat prices were lowest in the month of August,
and highest in the month of May. The variation betwt en the
high and low months was only about 9 percent, which repre-
sented 8 cents per bushel for the period 1933-1942. If
wheat would have been stored the entire nine montis, hichigaz
farmers would have realized about 1 cent per bushel per

month which is some at less than the estimated cost of

l2

 

INDEX ,
//
//0 /

'Illlyl/ III/III /

A

.25

90..

85-

 

 

80 l l I. I I I I I l I I I
albrz.FiabzAmar/yoz-A4é9quve./b@yu/k€9.jaot Cknf/varZDec.

 

Figure 4. WINTER'WEEAT: Index of Average Seasonal Variation of

Mighigan Farm Prices and Zone of Irregularity, 1933-
19 2.

13
storage. About three-fifths of the Michigan wheat crOp
was marketed during the low-price months of July, August,

and September.

 

 

 

 

Table II - WHEAT: Average Seasonal Variation of
hichigan Farm Prices and Index of
Irregularity, 1933- 1942.

‘Average Seasonal Variation of Prices
Month :
: Index : Price per :Index of Ir-
: : bushel : regularity
(percent) (dollars) (percent)

January 103.6 .89 7.9

February 103.0 .89 8.8

March 102.0 .88 8.3

April 103. o .89 7,7

lay 103. 6 .89 9.4

June 97.8 .84 6.9

July 98.4 .85 16.5

August 94.5 .81 10.5

September 97.7 .84 8.2

October 97.5 .84 5,1

November 97.5 .84 5,1

December 101.4 .87 6.5

Average 100.0 .86 8.4

 

Comparison 1910- 1910 an nd 1933- 1942. The seasonal

price pattern of wheat changed somewhat between 1910-1919

and 1933-1942 (Figure 5). The seasonal price variations

for wh eat were 3 percent, or 7 cents a one hel, less in the

2/
L. J. lforton, University of Illinois, Extension Circular
516 - "when Should Grain Be Marketed', July 1942. The
expenses for storing 81.00 wheat for six months were
estimated as follows:

 

Interest for 6 months on 81.00 wheat at 6 percent . 3 cents
Insurance for six months .. . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 cent
Storage Space (where prOper) . . . . . . . . . . 2.5 "
Binning xpense . . . . . . . . 1 cent
Shrinlzage and deterioration (2-5 percent) . . . . .2-5 "
Fumigation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5"

Total 10- 13 cents
Labor and storage Space is not counted if they would have
been unused otherwise. This reduces the cost of storage

in 14._(J ﬂs'n‘l-n n 1'“ unlqn'l 43A“ 14""! An ..‘I. --1

l4

 

ﬁMDlJf

.’s
a' s .
A03 " ‘xﬁthJMD-AQ

o"" ' '\ “'|

4933 -42 - .—’
0., o"

100

.95

l l l j l l l I l 1 I I

19kwn.aﬁeth4¢ﬁmrxyar‘Aﬁaguﬂbme./béy44cqzsigot Chat/watloeca

Figure 5. WINTER WHEAT: Indexes of Average Seasonal Variation
of Michigan Farm Prices, 1910-1919 and i933-1942.

 

 

15
1933-1942 period than earlier although the high and low
months were the same. Prices in 1910-1919 rose more sharp-
ly immediately preceding the harvest season then slumped
off more rapidly during the harvest season than did prices
during 1933-1942.

Size of Crop. When.wheat production was high the
price drOpped sharply following harvest to an index of 90
in August, then rose steadily until the following May to an
index of 108 (Figure 6). This represents an average rise
of almost 2 percent per month. On the other hand, when pro-
duction was low, the price of wheat gradually declined fol-
lowing harvest until the early winter months, hen rose
slowly until February and declined again to a low point at
the end of the marketing year in June. Here, a price advan-
tage of only 1 percent per month would have been realized if
the wheat would have been stored for 7 months.

Summary and ConClusions. Normally, it did not pay
to store wheat since the advantage gained by a price rise
during the year was more than offset by losses due to
storage eXpenses, shrinkage, extra expense of binning, and
the like. Wheat prices were relatively more favorable
earlier in the marketing season in 1933-1942 than in 1910-
1919. Following the harvest of a large wheat crOp, it was
more advantageous to store since prices dropped sharply at
the beginning.of the marketing season. The average monthly
price rise following a large crOp was about double the in-

crease in price following the harvest of a small crop.

l6

 

 

 

 

ﬂVZMLY
Atwqye C}ty9
A25
‘
I \
’~§~ 5020” Crop “--. \
“X? ‘1
”x. I

4‘!

Q
.~~~~~ . o I
95k .
‘90 1 _11 l l I J_ n 1 .1

.ﬁué/z4zgzsﬁgof'Ckwi/war(Obeu/Zv1.laetzlkéwr/ywr.ﬁléyuﬂmne

 

 

Figure 6. WINTER WEEAT: Indexes of Average Seasonal Variation

of Michigan Farm Prices for Years Following the
Harvest of Seven.Large CrOps and Five Small Crops

Selected From the Years 1923-1942.

l7
OATS

Seasonal:§attern. Michigan oats prices were lowest
in August and highest in April (Figure 7 and Table III).
The maximum variation was about 14.5 percent or 6 cents
per bushel for the period 1933-1942. The seasonal price
pattern was highly irregular, indicating that it was not
repeated regularly in any given year. Oats prices conformed
more closely to the average seasonal movement during the
winter months than at any other time throughout the year.

Table III - OATS: Average Seasonal Variation of

Michigan Farm Prices and Index of
Irregularity, 1933-1942.

 

Average Seasonal Variation of Prices

 

 

 

hontn : Index : Price per:Index of Ir-
: : bushel : regularity
(percent) (dollars)' (percent)

January 103.2 .39 8.4
February 104.2 .39 9.2
March 104.0 .39 10.5
April 105.7 .40 9.3
May 105.1 .39 8.7
June 101.2 .38 7.5
July 104.1 .39 16.2
August ‘ 91.2 .34 15.1
September 94.2 .35 13.5
October 92.8 .35 47.1
November 95.3 .36 7.0
December 99.0 .37 5.1
Average 100.0 .38 9.8

 

Michigan farmers marketed about one-third of their oats
crop in the months of August and September. Marketings
then levelled off and the price gradually advanced about

three-fourths of a cent per bushel per month until the

18

 

/ND£X | j

EKD'
/

//5 b /
//0 -/

:7 1..., ¢
.5 WW

5%)}

 

 

étib

6k?-

 

 

75 l. l, 1 l 1 l l 1 1 1 1 1
Jan. F cb. Mar/4,0»: May-Jane July Aug Jepf. Oct Now Dec.

 

Figure 7. OATS: Index of Average Seasonal Variation of
Michigan Farm Prices and Zone of Irregularity,
1933-1942 .

19

next harvest season. It has been estimated that the cost
of storing 30 cent oats for 8 months is about 4.6 cents per
bushel or about the same as the average seasonal price rise.

Comparison 1910-1919 and 1933-1942. Oats prices fol-
lowed a more regular seasonal pattern in 1910-1919 than they
did in l933-1942 (Figure 8). In the months of heavy market-
ings the drop was sharper in 1933-1942, but prices recovered
and were relatively higher from November to the following
April than in 1910-1919. The amount of variation was about
the same in either case--about 14.5 percent between the high
and low months.

Size of Crgp. There was less seasonal variation with
small crOps than large crops (Figure 9). The difference was
eSpecially great late in the marketing season. Prices of
oats following small crops were relatively higher at the be-
ginning and considerably lower at the end of the marketing
season than prices following the harvest of large crOps.

Summary and Concluggpns. Michigan farmers used most of

the oats they raised for feed and saﬂuon the farm. Since the
i/

L. J. Norton, University of Illinois, Extension Circular
516 - "When Should Grain Be Marheted', Jul 194i.

The expenses for storing 30 cent oats for months were
allocated as follows:

 

 

Interest on 30 cent oats for 8 months at 6 percent . 1.2 cents
Insurance on 30 cent oats for 8 months . . . . . . . .3 cents
Storage space. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.U cents
Cost of binning . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5 cents
Shrinkage (2 percent) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6 cents

TOtal 4.6 cents

2O

 

was; i

 

 

 

l”""..-n
..‘
la ” ‘4-{9/0 - /.9
O
uﬂ" ‘
A90
‘0' s

o" \

95’ ' "’¢
.-

SK). 1 11 1. 41 1_ 1 1 1 1 J. 1 1

 

Clara fﬁmb.Adarxﬁozvﬁ4§3njhncxjhﬂynAhc7uﬁyof13tf.AﬁDM'Alas.

Figure 8. OATS: Indexes of Average Seasonal Variation of
Michigan Farm Prices, 1910-1919 and 1933-1942.

21

 

 

 

 

 

ﬂNZMEX
[I .Zcugm: Cqu:
0’
‘,a'
’0 ’ ‘l
' ' \ 4|
“ '0 ~~ '
s . ,v’ "
.95 P .ﬂ'

 

 

, g 1' I l 1 1 1 .1 1. T 1 1 1
lithJﬁpnf(Raf/Mb»!(DeenaewﬂLfaséldmar.4ymr.Oﬂqy-ﬁmmesﬁmgl

 

Figure 9. OATS: Indexes of Average Seasonal Variation of
Michigan Farm Prices for Years Following the Harvest
of Six Large CrOps and Four Small Crops Selected
from the Years 1923-l942. -

22

amount they sold was only a small fraction of those raised
and the price was highly irregular throughout the year,
Michigan farmers were wise to sell the oats they had for

sale immediately after harvest.

BARLEY

Seasonal Pattern. The average seasonal variation in

 

the price of barley was small (Figure 10 and Table IV). From

a low in August to a high the following February, the varia-

tion was only about 10 percent, or 6 cents a bushel. Like
Table IV - BARLEY: Average Seasonal Variation of

Michigan Farm Prices and Index of
Irregularity, 1933-1942.

.A_

 

Average Seasonal Variation of Prices

 

 

 

Month 3
: Index : Price perzlndex of Ir-
: : bushel : regularity
(percent) (dollars) ‘(percent)
January ' 100.7 ' ' .60 13.7
February 103.6 .62 7.
March 103.1 .62 7.3
April 103.3 .02 9.3
may 103.1 .62 11.5
June 97.5 .55 7.0
July 94.9 .57 10.1
August 93.5 .55 15.4
September 99.5 .59 13.8
October 99.7 ' .60 9.0
November 99.8 .60 6.5
December 101.2 .60 6.7
Average 100.0 .60 9.8

 

most field cr0ps, the prices during the period 1933-1942

were highly irregular indicating little conformity to the

23

 

AMZMiXI

Aﬂs

’/

 

170

A25

.RJO

.95

:90

£25

6%?

/

 

l

.-///////////..
7

L

L

l

/

j

"”’7///

i

A

 

 

L

 

Z5

Figure 10.

uézv.lqctiltﬂmrAymr.4ﬂayodawssﬂwgrz4agzqﬁyot(Def.Akvk'43cc.

HARLEY:

Index of Average Seasonal Variation of
Michigan Farm Prices and Zone of Irregularity,

1933-1942.

24

average seasonal pattern. Almost four-fifths of Michigan's
barley crOp was marketed in.August and September on the ‘

average, and very little was marketed late in the marketing
year. The price rise from.August to September represented

one-half of the average annual increase.

Comparison l9erl9i9 and 1933:1942. The month of high
barley prices shifted from May to February between 1910-
l9l9 and 1953-1942, and the low month changed from October
to August (Figure ll). The amount of variation was consider-
ably greater in the earlier period. There was a decided ad-
vantage in favor of earlier marketing in the decade 1933-
1942 than in l910-l919, since prices recovered rapidly from
their seasonal low in August.

Size of Crop. The size of the orOp apparently had little
effect upon the seasonal movement of barley prices (Figure
12). The amount of variation between the high and low months
in years of small crops and large crops was 10 and 11 percent
reSpectively. In either case, prices rose steadily from the
beginning of the marketing season for nine or ten months,
then slumped off for two or three months toward the end of
the season.

Summary and Conclusiong, Most of Michigan's barley crop
was used for feed, and about 20 percent was sold. The qual-
ity of the grain in some years makes it BSpecially favorable
for malting. Maltsters usually try to fulfill their annual

needs as soon as possible following harvest. This normally

25

 

 

4*
ANZME ‘#’~~
Q
’0’ . \ //.9/o — /9
IO \
‘\
O 0’ ‘\
I’ O r ‘ ‘ C. s ‘
£9UE3‘4né—4' a!
\p a”'

.16»: liubaﬁﬁZeaqkwrv¢ﬂmynjzwnsoﬁméy.4137sigavfCkufzwtnt.Lhec.

Figure 11. BARLE‘: Indexes of Average Seasonal Variation of
Michigan Farm Prices, 1910-1919 and 19‘3-1942.

 

 

26

 

 

 

ﬂNZMEV

£0
/ ‘ ‘..-. ” -..---

0.. ,
-....-- 0‘
95 JM// Crap 1"“ ’
' .44v5MICD1y9 <0

90 I l 1 l 1 L 1 I l 1 I l

 

 

.prt.‘ 0c! Now Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar: Apr Mole/ne July 403.

Figure 12. B.RLE‘: Indexes of Average Seasonal Variation of
Michigan Farm Prices for Years Following the
Harvest of Nine Large CrOps and Eight Small CrOps
Selected From the Years 1923-1942.

27

maintains the price at a higher level soon after harvest

H.
l

on - price

Ho

easonal variat

C!)

in those years. Since the

was no more than adequat to cover storage costs, there\

was little reason to store barley in the hOpe of a later
.13
J.

price advantage. his was true regardless of the size 0

crop.

"1
,4
B

I“
t

Seasonal Pattern. Rye prices from 1933 to 1942 averaged

5‘
H
C' 1
. I
P
O
U)
c+
Ho
5
cl.

anuary and lowest in June (Figure l} and Table

V). Monthly marketings were highest during the months

of July, August, and September. Prices rose from June to
Table V - RYE: A

Mich ga
Irregul

age Seasonal Variation of
rm Prices and Index of
y, 1933-194d.

mtsg
h.

s
a
rit

 

'Average Seasonal Variation of Prices

 

 

nonth : Index : Price per :Index of Ir-

: : bushel :regularityg

(percent) (dollars) (percent)
January 105.3 .61 7.2
February 103.0 .59 10.5
MarCh 100.4 .58 10.2
APril 99.1 .57 9.9
Lby' 97.5 .25 9.5
June ' 91.3 .53 d.7
July 96.0 .56 19.5
Ausust 97.8 .56 13.0
September 104.4 .60 13.2
October 102.4 .59 6.9
Fovember 99.2 .5 4.3
December 101.6 .59 7.0

 

Average 100.0 .58 10.0

 

2C5

 

 

INDEX
//5 ? //
”o /

 

film- WI] III/0,. -
.95)- //// /

65V'

ear /

23 | l 1 l l 1 1 1 l1 1 A, n
.Jbvz Fﬁhb.44br¢@ar.dﬂqguﬁmneujbéy.Akcy.ﬁgpt'CMM‘IVbM'ZDec.

 

 

Figure 13. REE: Index of Average Seasonal Variation of
Michigan Farm Prices and Zone of Irregularity, 1933-
1942. '

29
September, fell off to November, rose again to January,
then steadily fell again until June. The wide zone of ir-
regularity indicates that the average seasonal variation was
not regularly repeated in individual years. Because of this,
variations in any year may be more important than the average .
seasonal variation pattern.
Comparison 1910-1919 and 1933—1942. The seasonal move-
ment of rye prices in 1910-1919 was very regular (Figure 14).
Prices rose following the harvest season until the follow-
ing May, then declined during the months of heavy marketings.
The average price rise was about 1 percent per month from
August until the following May. The peak-price month shifted
from May to September and the low-price month from September
to June between the two periods. 0n the average early fall
marketing was best for Michigan farmers during the later
period.
§1§3 of Crop. The seasonal variation of rye prices was
greater following large crops than small crops (Figure 15).
Following the harvest of a large crop, prices generally rose
from August to February, then fell steadily until August. The
average rise in price was about 2-1/2 percent per month, or
slightly less than 2 cents per bushel per month. When a
small orOp was harvested, the price of rye remained near the
average annual price throughout the year. The high-price
month was August and the low-price month was the following

June. The total variation was only 5 cents per bushel for

the ten months.

 

 

INDEX
AQ5. '
@“"’""‘v’9’°“’9 ‘
I. 0 7 x - A 4-
95 .“o a... a. '
4215““4k?

 

 

.Jbva finb.Adar/ﬁpcnﬁﬂﬁyuAmneuJbﬁy.Ahey.ﬁgot(CMHFAWOM'(Jean

Figure 14. REE: Indexes of Average Seasonal Variation of
Michigan Farm Prices, 1910-1919 and 1933-1942.

31

 

 

 

 

JWZMBY
/ .éarye C>qp
.~
IO I". .\ ”“‘~~
‘.O x ‘
J5nml6kgp q“. ’
.95
l l l J L l l I l L j l

 

 

.Auéya4zgz.ﬁyat Cku!/war49ema_lbvz.ﬁinb.Jane/@acnnle’nlunaz
1

Figure 15. REE: Indexes of Average Seasonal Variation of
Michigan Farm Prices for Years FOllowing the
Harvest of Eight Large Crops and Six Small CrOps
Selected From the Years 1923-1942.

32
Summary and Conclusions. For those farmers who had
rye to sell, there was no price advantage to be gained by
storing beyond September in the decade 1933-1942. There
was a higher premium on early marketings in 1933-1942 than
during the period 1910-1919. More was gained by storing
large orOps than small crOps, but even then, the amount

gained was no more than adequate to cover costs.

FIELD BEAHS

Seasonal Pattern. The seasonal price of field beans
was highly erratic (Figure 16 and Table VI). The price re-
mained below the average annual price from the beginning of

Table VI - FIELD BEANS: Average Seasonal Variation

of Michigan Farm Prices and Index of
Irregularity, 1933-1942.

 

Average Seasonal Variation of Prices

 

 

 

: : Price per : Index of

Month : Index : hundred- : Irregular-

: : weight : ity

(percent) (dollars)f (percent)
January 96.1 3.00 13.4
February 97.4 3.04 15.0
MarCh 94.7 2.95 14.0
April 98.1 3.06 11.7
May 104.8 3.27 14.4
June 100.0 3.12 12.2
JU1Y 107.3 3.35 12.8
August 102.7 3.20 15.2
September 107.5 3.35 19.1
October 98.6 3.08 12.8
November 97.0 3.03 14.2
December 95.8 2.99 11.7,
Average 100.0 3.12 13.9

 

the harvest season in October until the following April.

From April, the price fluctuated above the annual average

33

 

Wag

 

 

AﬁSP' ’/;;
Izo )- /’ //
//5r /
ARDP-
/

///////

"W
£W5:::;;““,V
.90 /

_.,J1 l 1 1 1 1 1 1 4 l 1

Jan. Feb. Mat/4pc Maydune Jag All-7. J‘epf. OCZ‘ NOV 09c.»

Figure 16. FIELD 2221.0 Index of Average Seasonal Variation
of Michigan Farm Prices and Zone Of Irregularity,

34
price in alternate months reaching a seasons peak in
September. The wide zone of irre*u_ar1ty indicates a wide
vari tion in the seaso m-a1 pa att rns for indivi-dual years.

About 40 percent of Mic mi '8 bean crOp was ma; heted dur-
ing the three months Octob::, lovemser, and December.

Comparison 1910- 1919 and 1933- 1942 Bean prices were
less va riabLe in 1910- 1919 titan in 1933-1942 (Figure 17).

The seasonal variation in the earlier p riod was only 4
percent compared to 13 percent in 1933-1942. This corres-
ponded to 22 and 40 cents a hundred respectively. Prior to
.har est, prices remained fairly stable, but at a relatively
lower level in the earlier decade as compared with the
later period.

Size of Crop. Apparently tie size of crOp had little
effect on the s asonal movement of bean prices (Figure 16).
In either case, he average price drOpped off from the be—
ginning of the arves t season until December, tha. general-
ly rose until the following July. Both the upwa d and down-
ward trends were quite irregular.

Summaryiand Conclusions. The irregularity in the sea-
Sonal variation of the price of beans combined with the small

amount of total variation ma de it rather risky to hold bean

5
m

for the same number of months a'f ter harvest year a; ter year.
In set eral years it was possible to make Speculative profits
by storing beans for a period of three months to a year or
more following aarvest. he price was not nsis tently high-

est in any one month of the year, since the highest price

 

 

 

 

 

INDEX _
klf
A933 - 42 "" --" s
/00 “-0-" £910 -/9)-- "’ ‘ ~u'
95
I n 1 " n 1 1 1 1 1 n 1 1

 

'Jan. Feb. Moz- Apr May June Jwy All] Jépi.‘ Ocrf Nov. 0: c.

Fisure l . FIELD BEARS: Indexes of Average Seasonal Variation
{J - a. - .. J .,
of nicnigan Farm frices, 1910-1919 and 1933-1942.

\N

O\

 

 

 

 

ANZliY
~A25 ‘LAN3wetShqp
. ~
. \ .
IOO ﬂ 1
'0’ .~.. ‘Q. ’d' v
95 K “k': '
P .SmquCDvy:
1 1 11 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

 

 

.ﬁqpﬂf(chaﬂﬂDk'ZDecacﬂbrz lﬁeét4¢ﬁmrx19£'Ahkgyuévws.AM@/a4kﬁy

Figure 18. FIELD EEAIS: Indexes of Average Seasonal Variation
of Hichiran Farm Prices for Years FOIlowing the
Harvest of Seven Large CrOps and Kine Smell Crops
Selected From the Years 1923-1942.

37
for the year occurred in eight different months in the 10
year period, 1933-1942.

Prices early in the marketing season were very close to
the annual average price and remained within 3 percent of
the average until December. There was little difference in
the seasonal pattern regardless of the size of crop. Prices

remained near the season's average early in the marketing

season for either large or small crOps.

POTATOES

Seasonal Pattern. The seasonal variation in the price

of potatoes was great (Figure 19 and Table VII). From an
index of 83 in November, prices fluctuated upward to an
Table VII - POTATOES: Average Seasonal Variation

in.Michigan Farm Prices and Index of
Irregularity, 1933-1942.

 

Average Seasonal Variation of Prices

 

 

 

Month : Index : Price per :Index of Ir-

: : bushel : regularity

(percent) (dollars) (percent)

January 92.6 .63 10.3
February 93.4 .64 14.2
March 92.3 .63 17.2
APril 95.9 .55 16.7
may 91.0 .62 18.0
June 95.4 .65 25.2
JU1Y 133.1 .91 2i.5
August 134.6 .92 34.8
September 114.7 .78 29.0
October 86.0 .59 '11.4
November 83.0 .57 13.0
December 88.0 .60 10.4
Average 100.0 .68 18.3

 

38

 

ANZMBX

A50
km?
kmo
Aﬂo

A20

lhO

’0 W”

“V

6%?

 

 

W0

(*9
.kan.Icethatﬂzrlyac.bﬁqgwkame.ﬁuéy.Aagagﬁyof<9c/.Akmm Alec.

Figure 19. POTATOES: Index of Average Seasonal Variation of
Michigan Farm Prices and Zone of Irregularity,
lgjj-J-gq'ao

39
index of about 135 in August. These price variations repre-
sented a difference in the location of farm sales as well as
variations in prices to farmers in the same locality.
Michigan farmers who sold potatoes in the high—price months
were nearer the market and had considerably less freight ex-
pense than those in the upper peninsula. At present, this
freight differential amounts to as much as 30 cents a bushel.
About four-fifths of the potato crOp was ma keted by Michigan
farmers rather evenly from October through April. The un-
usually high prices that prevailed through July and August
corresponded with the period of seasonally low marketings in
1933-1942. The width of the zone of irregularity varied be-
tween 40 and 70 percent from May through September. 118 in-
dicates that the price was highly variable during these
months.

Comparison 1910-1919 and 1933-1942. There was very
little change in the seasonal pattern of potato prices be-
tween 1910-1919 and 1933-1942 (Figure 20). Prices in 1910-
1919 increased about 40 percent from June to August, then
drOpped to a seasonal low index of 86 by November. In both
periods the difference between the higi- and low-price months
was 52 percent.

.Size of Crop. The amount of seasonal variation in the
price of potatoes was much greater following the harvest of
a large crop ban a small crOp (Figure 21). When production

was high, the seasonal price peak occured in August and the

 

INDEX ‘

ABC)

A20

//C>

 

ADI

 

Figure 20. POTATOLS: Indexes of Average Seasonal Variation
of Michigan Farm Prices, 1910-1919 and 1933-1942.

 

41

 

 

 

 

 

 

lxvoex j
A50
‘*~1&2ﬁye (Dry:
I40
- A30
A20 i‘, 4“
I
I' ‘ ’
I’ ‘\ J
I, . ’ O ‘ - . ’0’
. \ ll'
AGO
. ‘3 .~ ""
190-1 JQMmVC}gp-:\ ’..'
\ ,’
so ‘
1”
l l l l l I l . l l l l

 

 

 

Joly Aug. 32,0)! 0c! Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb Mar Apr AloyJa/ac

Figure 21. POTATOES: Indexes of Average Seasonal Variation
of Michigan Farm Prices for Years Following the
harvest of Two Large CrOps and Three Small CrOps
Selected From 1923-1942.

42
low-price month was the following June. For small crOps,
the peak month was August, but the low month was December.
The total variation in price between the high and low months
was 84 percent for large crOps as compared with 31 percent
for small crOps. Prices in both cases fluctuated at about
the same relative level from October to February, but prices
in years of small crOps rose following this period whereas
prices in years of large crOps fell.

Summary and Conclusions. Potato prices had a large
amount of seasonal variation. Only in three months--July,
August and September—-were prices above the average annual
price for the year during the periods 1910-1919 and 1933-1942.
If it was impossible for Michigan farmers to market their
potatoes early, there was no other price advantage until the
end of the marketing season. This was true in all cases ex—
cept following the harvest of a large crop, in which case

prices fell rapidly after the month of January.

HAY

Seasonal Pattern. From a low in July and August to a
high in February, hay prices rose about 13 percent (Figure
22 and Table VIII). This difference was about 2 percent, or
22 cents, per ton per month. Monthly prices were below the
average annual price from July through December, and above

the average annual price the remainder of the year. The rise

‘0'

 

ﬂVZMiX

/

1M5

 

137/ %
95 Wm

.90

<35

‘80

75 /

JWO
“haw.zqcéaIkar/bormﬁ4q9uﬂnms_/bfy Ak€9<ﬁaof Cka/varz7eCL

 

Figure 22. HAY: Index of Average Seasonal Variation of
_ Michigan Farm Prices and Zone of Irregularity,

1933-1942.

1+4

in hay prices was more or less gradual for the first seven

months following harvest. They remained fairly steadyfor
Table VIII - HAY: Average Seasonal Variation of

Michigan Farm Prices and Index of
Irregularity, 1933-1942.

 

Average Seasonal Variation of Prices

 

 

 

Month Index : Price per:Index of Ir-

: ton : regularity

(percent) (dollars) (percent)
January 104.3 9.00 6.2
February 107.3 9.26 10.7
MEFCh 105.1 9.07 11.5
April 105.0 9.06 11.6
may 105.5 9.10 11.1
June 103.1 8.90 8.9
July 92.0 7.94 9.8
August 91.8 7.92 17.7
September 95.8 8.27 15.8
October 96.0 8.28 14.2
November 95.3 8.22 11.8
December 98.8 8.53 11.1
Average 100.0 8.63 11.7

 

four months, before drOpping sharply from June to July. The

zone of irregularity was wide--more so immediately follow-
ing the harvest season than at any other time throughout the
year. heavy marketings prevailed from December through April
and only one—third of the hay crOp was sold during the other
seven months.

Comparison l9lO-l919and 1933-1942. The seasonal vari-
ation of hayprices was greater during the period 1933-1942
than in 1910-1919 (Figure 23). The greatest seasonal rise
in the earlier period occured in the late spring months and
reached a peak in May and June. From an average index of 94

in August, prices rose steadily to 100 in December. Prices

 

 

 

45

ANKME 3-----W
’05 ¢ -‘ 49/0- /9
o r
ﬂOO' "
\‘ a“. O.
.95 x9.” are “ ,v

ukwnzfﬁztzlﬂbnw4¥urﬁ4b3/.kametkméf44bgzdﬁaot<9b%‘ﬂwou'Alec

Figure 23: HAY:

of Average Seasonal Va
Michigan

ion of
. Prices, 1910-1919 and

riat
1933-1942.

 

45
remained only slightly above the annual average until the
sharp rise just prior to harvest.

Size of Crop. There was a marked difference in the
seasonal pattern of hay prices following the harvest of a
large crop rather than a small cr0p (Figure 24). When pro-
duction was high, prices rose about 4 percent per month from
August until February, then fell steadily through June. The
seasonal price peak following a short or0p occurred in
September. Prices then fell to about the average annual
price level in November where they remained fairly steady un-
til the following May and June. When production was low hay
prices rose 12 percent from July to September.

Summary and Conclusions. Michigan farmers sold the bulk
of their surplus hay production during the months of highest
prices in 1933-1942. The seasonal variation of hay prices
was greater in 1933-1942 than in 1910-1919 and the peak-price
month shifted from May in the earlier, to February in the
later period. When hay production was low, early marketing
was wise, while later marketing was more advantageous when

hay production was high.

APPLES

Seasonal Pattern. Apple prices had a pronounced
seasonal pattern (Figure 25 and Table IX). From a low in
September, prices rose rapidly until May, then dr0pped rather

sharply to August and September. 1e difference in price

47

 

 

 

 

ANZMiK
ﬂT)
(cmqye (71¢:
’05 ’~..
0' .5! - '
’0 on. on... . '
o ' . ‘~¢"

I. i“F15hmeC7qp
95 '
.90

 

£m5.Jknv.fﬁstzIUZur/bbarﬁ4b5thvu:«kagfa4cgy¢£g;nf(mcfaﬂhau’lJcca

Figure 24: KAI: Indexes of Average Season
Michigan Farm Prices for lears l 1
Harvest of Four Large Cr0ps and .ive Small Cr0ps
Selected From the fears 1923-19

 

was; —_—'T
150 /
I: . . /

no 7

I

 

 

'.Aavz fﬁeAhabﬁmrlﬂam'lkquukam:.AbﬁyulhzguJEznf(Jefkﬂkbu'ilecu

Figure 25. APPLES: Index of Average Seasonal Variation of
Michigan Farm Prices and Zone of Irregularity,

1933-1942.

 

 

49
between the high and low months was 60 percent, which repre-
sented 59 cents per bushel during 1933-1942. Much of the
difference can be attributed to the different varieties
marketed during different seasons. Prices conformed more

Table IX - APPLES: Average Seasonal Variation of

Michigan Farm Prices and Index of
Irregularity, 1933-1942.

 

Average Seasonal Variation of Prices

 

 

 

honth : Index : Price per :Index of Ir-

: : bushel : regularity

(percent) (dollars) (percent)
January 96.3 .94 6.1
February 101.0 .99 9.5
march 105.2 1.03 7.5
April 110.8 1.05 12.1
may 133.4 1.30 16.0.
June 130.4 1.28 24.4
July 123.0 1.20 13.6
August 78.5 .75 i4.5
September 73.1 .71 11.8
October 74.3 .73 11.5
November 81.6 .80 10.3
December 92.2 .90 7.4
Average 100.0 .98 12.1

 

closely to the average seasonal pattern in the winter and
early Spring months than at any other time throughout the
year in the ten-year period.

Comparison 1910-1919_and 1933-1942. The amount of
seasonal variation in apple prices was less in 1910-1919
than in 1933-1942 (Figure 26). The seasonal peak in prices

occurred in April in the earlier period and was about 17 per-

cent below the May peak of the later period. On the average,

50

 

”vac/r . I

I30 ’ I933 "‘ 42

/!O ..
Q .0. i

//o ' ‘0' .

 

IQIO - l9

 

~ 0
“~

 

70
.VQWV.fﬁztzﬁﬂanw4kurzhkay-ﬂanemﬂuéya4Lg7.ﬁaa£’CkwfﬁWou’Alec.

Figure 26. APPLES: Indexes of Average Seasonal Variation of
Michigan Farm Prices, 1910-1919 and 1933—1942.

51
prices fell from April to May in 1910-1919, whereas they
rose rapidly from April to May in the more recent lO-year
period.

Size of CrOp. The size of the apple crop apparently
had someeffect on the seasonal price movement but the dif-
ference was not great (Figure 27). When a large crop was
harvested prices fell more rapidly and recovered more rapid-
ly than when a small crop was harvested. The peak and low
months coincided, and the peak prices on an index basis were
about the same whether production was high or low.

Summary and Conclusions. Apple prices were highly ses-
sonal and rose about 7 percent per month from September to
May in 1933-1942, on the average. A severe seasonal dr0p in
apple prices occurred from July to August. The change in
the seasonal pattern of apples from 1910-1919 and 1933-1942
tended to place a greater price premium on apples from May
to July. It was more advantageous to store apples following
the harvest of a large crop than a small crop as he seasonal
rise in price was greater immediately following the harvest

of a large cr0p.

52

INDEX '

A”?

A20

ll!

 

ADO

 

 

.LGN1w:<3rqp>

7

CR3
Jug AU} 5‘9pr 0:! Nov Dec. Jan. Feta/Vat.— Apr Mach/ne

Figure 27. APPLES: Indexes of Average Seasonal Variation of
Michigan Farm Prices for Years Following the
Harvest of Five Large Crops and Seven Small Crops
Selected From the Years 1923-194'

FL.

53
P A R T I I
LI‘LSTOCK AND LIVESTOCK PRODUCTS

The production of livestock and livestock products
does not vary as much from one season to another as cr0p
production. Therefore, there is a more even flow of these
products to market. However, the prices of livest00k and
livestock products are higher in certain times of the year
than others. The amount of seasonal variation in price is
closely related to the volume of farm marketings. Some of
the livestock and their products have regular seasonal
price movements year after year, while others vary greatly.
Improved or new storage and production practices may reduce
the amount of seasonal price variation. This has been true
for dairy products and may be true for other livestock pro-
ducts in the future. In the following section the average
seasonal variation in the prices of livestock and livestock

products for selected periods from 1910 to 1942 are reviewed.

HOGS

Seasonal Pattern. There were two seasonal peaks in hog
prices (Figure 28 and Table X). One occurred in March and
the other in September, with the September peak averaging
about 10 percent higher than the march peak. Prices were
lowest in December, at an index of 89, while prices slumped

about 3 percent from the lower peak in harch to an index of

1

INDEX

[/5

”O

l05 /

IOo, /
./
90

 

 

 

 

95

Jan. Feb. Mar/4,0,: May June July Aug. Jepf Caz! Nov Dec.

Figure 28. HOGS: Index of Average Seasonal Variation of
Michigan Farm.Prices and Zone of Irregularity,

55
97 in April and May. These two seasonal peaks and their
subsequent troughs were due to the two-litter system of hog
Table X - HOGS: Average Seasonal Variation of

Michigan Farm Prices and Index of
Irregularity, 1933-1942.

 

{_;Average Seasonal Variation of Prices

 

 

 

Month : : Price per : Index of

: Index : hundred- : Irregu-
: weight : larity

(percentyv (dollars) (percentf

January 94.7 8.54 9.0
February 99.3 9.25 8.0
March 100.6 9.39 7.5
April 97.6 9.11 6.7
may 97.4 9.09 7.7
June 96.6 9.22 8.9
July 106.2 9.91 6.4
August 107.6 10.06 9.9
September 111.1 10.37 7.9
October 104.0 9.70 6.5
November 93.9 5.76 4.9
December 88.6 8.27 7.3
Average 100.0 9.33 7.7

 

production practiced by corn-belt farmers. Approximately 55
percent of the pigs in Michigan were farrowed in the Spring
and 45 percent in the fall. The September peak in prices
occurred before the heavy marketings of Spring pigs began and
the march peak was reached at the beginning of the period of
heavy marketings of fall pigs. The zone of irregularity of
hog prices was relatively narrow in October and November, the
months of declining prices and heavy marketings.

Comparison 1910-1919 and 1933-1942. Between 1910-1919

and 1933-1942, the Spring peak of hog prices deCIined and the

56
fall peak increased--the result of the shift of hogs into
the western corn belt where the one—litter system is prac-
ticed (Figure 29). September continued to be the month of
highest prices and December the month of lowest prices. In

1910-1919, the Spring peak in hog prices was in April, fol-
lowed by a decline to a summer low in June. This showed a
tendency for the spring peak and the summer low in hog prices
to occur earlier in 1933-1942 than in 1910-1919.

Rising or Falling Prices. When all farm prices were
rising, the SeaSonal variation in hog prices was signifi-
cantly different than when prices were falling (Figure 30).
During periods of rising prices, the seasonal low in hog
prices occurred in January and the seasonal peak was
September. The Spring peak was low compared to the annual
average and prices fluctuated unevenly from March through
June. hog prices were above the annual average from July
through December even though prices drOpped sharply after
September. When all farm prices were falling, the seasonal
peak in hog prices was in march and the low in December.

Hog prices fell from March to May, then rose to a minor peak
in July, and declined again to December during periods of
falling prices.

Summary and Conclusions. Hog prices usually rose to a
minor peak in March, declined, and then rose to a higher
peak in Septetber. The fall peak was relatively higher and

the Spring peak relatively lower in 1933-1942 than in

57

 

ANZXEX

AM)

49/0 - ID *
[05. ".‘//’

..~

AQUEI-4ﬂ!

    
     

 

 

A90

akzn./Q3£a44brn4ymr.mﬁqgudwne.ﬁzéy.4a5zdivwf(mLKIVburlDec.
*January to June 1910 not included.

Figure 29. EOGS: Indexes of Average Seasonal Variation of
Michigan Farm Prices, 1910-1919 and 1933-1942.

58

 

 

 

 

ﬂNZMDV {
AM5
Faumqy'fanamas
//
Ira/ling 97cc:
0.
O ’ \ ” onoo‘
O’ “" " . ‘
ﬂoor ‘
‘3
.95 “
. “
§
190' ‘\
“
<35. ‘
l

 

.ﬁanzfaslzdﬂanv4kurIkheyuéameilbgy.Akcyeﬁgot CMH!/Mbur£13c,

Figure 30. HOGS: Indexes of Average Seas nal Variation
of Michigan Farm Prices for Six Years of Rising
and Five Years of Falling Prices Selected From
the Years 1923-1942.

59
1910-1919. When all farm prices were rising, hog prices
were more favorable in the fall and early winter months
than when all farm prices were falling. Earlier marketing
of hogs in both the Spring and fall was more advantageous
during periods of falling prices than during periods of

rising prices.
CATTLE

Seasonal Pattern. Average Michigan cattle prices fol-
lowed a regular seasonal pattern and were highest in May
and lowest in December (Figure 31 and Table XI). The total

Table XI - CATTLE: Average Seasonal Variation of

Michigan Farm Prices and Index of
Irregularity, 1933-1942.

 

:Average Seasonal Variation of Prices
Price per Index of

 

 

 

month : Index hundred- Irregu—
: weight larity
(percent) (dollars) (percent)

January 96.7 6.23 6.1
February 97.4 6.27 5.8
March 100.5 6.47 8.5
April 102.1 6.58 6.9
May 105.8 6.61 8.3
June 105.4 6.79 5.5
July 104.3 6.72 4.1
August 102.8 6.62 5.4
September 102.1 6.58 5.2
October 97.2 6.25 4.8
November 93.1 5.00 8.5
December 92.6 5.95 8.7
Average 100.0 6.44 6.5

 

amount of variation between May and Decemier was 13 percent.

The zone of irregularity was widest in the low-price months

60

 

AMZMEK

4M5

A“?

:: V/I/ l//////////.////IA 'I .

5M).
.95 /

so ‘
.kaoa15:15.OﬂardﬁnanJSQanmM:.Awgr44Zgz¢ﬁa0116hMFAMour(lac.

Figure 31. CATTLE: Index of Average Seasonal Variation of
Michigan Farm Prices and Zone of Irregularity,

61

of November and December, but was relatively narrow in the
summer and early fall months. Monthly marketings were fair-
ly steady throughout the year. They tended to be Slightly
above average from Harsh through June as well as in January
and October. The months of low marketings were December
and February.

Comparison 1910-1919 and 1933-1942. The seasonal var-
iation in cattle prices was less in 1933-1942 than in the
earlier period (Figure 32). The total variation between Hay
and December was 16 percent in 1910-1919. As was the case
in 1933-1942, the seasonal pattern was regular throughout the
year in the period 1910-1919.

Rising or Falling Prices. Cattle prices rose from the
first of the year until May, remained fairly steadyfor four
months, then slumped off after September during years of
rising farm prices (Figure 33). Aside from a small rise in
April, cattle prices fell steadily throughout the year when
farm prices were falling. The amount of variation between
the high and low months was about the same in either case.

Effect of Grades on Seasonal Pa tern. Various gradesof
beef cattle at Chicago had different seasonal price patterns
in l933-l942. The price of choice and prime cattle were
lowest in June, and rose to a seasonal peak in October
(Figure 34). From October, prices dropped to November and
remained fairly stable until April after which time they
dropped to the seasonal low in June. Good grade beef prices

were highest in September (Figure 35). From September they

AMI.

A“)

a".‘~(—-/.9/O-/9*
s

/o

 

 

 

435 '
.onz‘Fiub.AmerAﬁoanﬂﬁbyySewnghjﬁag/Aawgndﬁyof Cknflﬂkmxlllac.

*January to June 1910 not included

Figure 32. CATTLE: Indexes of Average Seasonal Variation of
Michig an Farm Prices, 19110-1919 and 1933-1942.

 

53

Q»
§ -- n O" ‘s. RAW/7y Pr/ces -—~..

 

:Q?

a€a%V@7/5%vcc:rd/J~.§u...
Q.

‘s

.vaz‘FﬁnawddarAﬁoxudﬂegwﬂwmewﬂuéya4Zgz.ﬁameCanAberlDec.

Figure 33.

CATTLE: Indexes of Average Seasonal Variation
of Michigan Farm Prices for Six Years of Rising
Prices and Five Years of Fallinr Prices
Selected from the Years 1923—19Z2.

64

 

”was; T

/%5

IWO

 

l0 - I... v I [III'A A
7 ”///’

.95
4

4&5

 

 

l l 1

5M)
.ﬂavz fist:atﬂmrAﬁam-lkﬂay.kwaeuqu§r1495z4ﬁaaf'Ckuf/NQMK ngc“

Figure 34. CATTLE: Index of Average Seasonal Variation in
the Prices of Choice and Prime Grade Steers at
Chicago and Zone of Irregularity, 1933—1942.

55

 

INDEX ’T

AM?

 

AD

, II/I/Iﬂt. A

’ ‘“‘CQF' ‘"'-"!02

S3

 

85 L
.Aavz fﬁsézabﬂer$OA‘lhkyyeﬁnme.JhM9'x4agzcﬁaofrCNEfAAﬂDM'193ca

Figure 35. CATTLE: Index of Average Seasonal Variation in
the Prices of Good Grade Steers at Chicago and
Zone of Irregularity, 1933-1942.

66
fell to a seasonal low in February, then rose again and re-
mained at about the average annual price until June. From
June they climbed to the seasonal peak in September. The
highest prices for medium beef was received during the late
spring, summer, and early fall months (Figure 36). Prices
dropped from September to Eovember, then fluctuated upward
until the late Spring months. The prices of common beef and
good grade cows at Chicago followed about the same seasonal
pattern (Figures 37 and 38). Prices of these grades were
highest in Jay and lowest in the late fall and early winter
months. For all of the different grades, the zone of irreg-
ularity was narrower in the summer and early fall months than
at any other time throughout the year.

Summary and Conclusions. Honthly marketings of Mich gan
cattle were above average during the months of highest prices.
The amount of seasonal variation in cattle prices was 3 per-
cent less in 1933-1942 than in 1910-1919. During periods of
rising prices, cattle prices averaged higher in the fall and
early winter months. When all farm prices were falling,
cattle prices fell throughout the year. For different grades
of beef at Chicago, the seasonal price pa tern was quite dif-
ferent. The average price differential between the different
grades included was one to two dollars per hundredweight
from good grade cows up to the cnoice and prime grades. The
seasonal movement of the Michigan farm price of cattle was

similar to the seasonal pattern of good grade cows and common

57

 

INDEX ﬁ'ﬁ

”Q7

A05

A00 4aaIﬂIaalilgiiaililiﬂililIUZanan‘

y" ”WI/‘-

 

485 - .
Jan. Feb Mar/4,0»:- Moy Jane Ja/y Aug. Jepf. 0e)? Abv. Dec.

Figure 36. CATTLE: Index of Average Seasonal Variation in
the Prices of Medium Grade Steers at Chicago and
Zone of Irregularity, 1933-1942.

66

 

AA“)

£ur
#5 [J //

IYO’P

: // .. ,,,,,
.5 m
//

80 l 4 l l l I I I 1
Jun. Feb MorApr May June Jag Auy,5epf ch Nov Dec.

 

 

 

 

Figure 37. CATTLE: Index of Average Seasonal Variation In the
Price of Common Grade Steers at Chicago and Zone of
Irregularity, I933-1942.

59

 

A~ZISX' r

[/5

//O

M..-

 

WW

 

6&5

Jan. Feb. Mar:- Apr.’ Mole/nc July Au} \kpz‘ ch. NOV Dec.

Figure 38. CATTLE: Index of Average Seasonal Variation in
the Prices of Good Grade Cows at Chicago and Zone
of Irregularity, 1933-1942.

70
beef at Chicago in 1933-l942--an indication that the bulk
of the Michigan cattle sales was made up of cull dairy

stock.

Seasonal Pattern. Veal calf prices had two seasonal

 

peaks and two seasonal lows (Figure 39 and Table VII). From
an index of 108 in February, prices dropped 15 percent until
Table XII - CALVES: Average Seasonal Variation of

Michigan Farm Prices and Index of
Irregularity, l933-l942.

 

Average Seasonal Variation of Prices

 

 

 

Month : : Price per : Index of

: Index : hundred- : Irregular-

: : weight : ity

(percenty (dollars) (percenty
January 104.9 9.88 8.9
February 107.9 10.16 5.8
march 102.8 9.68 5.3
April 97.7 9.20 5.4
Iv'Iay 94.0 8.85 5.3
June 91.7 8.54 9.1
July 93.1 8.77 8.8
August 98.2 9.25 5.8
September 105.9 9.98 4.8
October 105.0 9.89 3.9
November 100.0 9.42 5.5
December 98.8 9.31 7.2
Average 100.0 9.42 6.3

 

June. Prices steadily rose from.June to a minor seasonal

peak of 105 in September then fell again to 99 in December.
The zone of irregularity was wider in the summer and winter
than during the Spring and fall months. About one-third of
the veal calves were marketed in April, May, and June--the

months of lowest prices.

71

 

lﬁﬂﬂEﬂ

ﬁt? I//

:: ﬂit. . // A.
. W///

.90

.. /

867 '
.1071 last:Ibkwr/yot~ﬂkk§yehavc./b y fhzymdkyof'CkNF/Nknx Alec.

Figure 39. CALVES: Index of Average Seasonal Variation of
’ Michigan Farm Prices and Zone of Irregularity,

 

72

Comparison l9lO-l9l9 and 1933—l942. The seasonal var-
iation in the price of veal calves was greater in 1933-1942
than in the earlier decade (Figure 40). Prices were lowest
in May and highest in September in 19l0—l9l9, and the total
variation was about ll percent. FOllowing September, prices
dropped to November, then fluctuated above average to march
before drOpping to the seasonal low in May.

Rising or Falling Prices. When farm prices were fall-
ing, the price of veal calves drOpped sharply from a high
in January to a low in May (Figure 41). The recovery was
gradual following May to September and October after which
time calf prices fell again to December. When farm prices
were rising, the price of veal calves rose from January to
above average in February and March before dropping to a
low in June. The rise from June to the seasonal high in
September and October was rapid and the subsequent drOp was
slight.

Sggmary and Conclusion. Veal calves were primarily of
dairy origin and were marketed one to two months after the
cows freshened. Since most of the cows freshened either in
the Spring or fall, the price of veal calves was depressed
in the one or two months following. The seasonal pattern
“was more variable in 1933-1942 than in 1910-1919, since more
cows freshened either in the Spring or fall months in the
later decade. Veal calf prices were more favorable earlier
in the year and less favorable toward the end of the year

when all farm prices were falling than when they were rising.

73

 

 

 

.90
.AQKz/QaéuAdbvrxyoz-A4tgyeénmeaﬂuéy.Akcytﬁacnf(la{.dﬁau'liecg
*January to June 1910 not included.

Figure 40. CALVES: Indexes of Average Seasonal Variation of
Michigan Farm Prices, 1910-1919 and 1933-1942.

74

 

ANIESY
.A“? 14kmvyya£%~mnas
ICE
A00
\
.5. \
.9
”ro//m9 Pr/ces /)

 

.kaa.fﬁe£a/Mﬂmn.Aymrl4485L22mn=.Auéy.Aqu.$epu€(DctHAﬂaw'(Jae.

CALVES: Indexes of Average Seasonal Variation
of Kichigan Farm Prices for Six Years of Rising
and Five Tears of Falling Prices Selected from
the'Zears 1923-1942.

Figure 41 .

75
MILK

Seasonal Pattern. Milk prices were lowest in June and

 

reached a seasonal peak in November (Figure 42 and Table
XIII). The average rise was about 16 percent, or 28 cents
per hundredweight for the period 1933-1942. Milk production
was highest in the months of May, June, and July, then de-
clined through the fall and winter months, and rose again to
Table XIII - MILK: Average Seasonal Variation of

Michigan Farm Prices and Index of
Irregularity, 1933-1942.

 

: Average Seasonal Variation of Prices

 

 

 

Month : : Price per : Index of
: Index : hundred- : Irregu-
3 weight : larity

(percent) (dollars) (percent)
January 104.3 1.88 6.1
February 103.0 1.85 5.6
March 99.4 1.79 4.3
April 97.0 1.75 5.2
Lhy 93.5 1.68 3.4
June 91.4 1.65 5.1
July 94.4 1.70 5.1
August 98.1 1.77 5.9
September 101.3 1.82 4.8
October 103.8 1.87 3.0
November 107.2 1.93 2.9
December 106.5 1.92 6.2
Average 100.0 1.80 4.8

 

the spring and summer peak. The zone of irregularity was
relatively narrow throughout the year indicating that prices
were near the average seasonal pattern in the ten years of
the 1930's.

Comparison 1910-19l9 and 1933-1942. In the earlier

decade, milk prices had a large amount of seasonality as

76

   
 

"////,.

 

 
 

,/
.,,/ //

.Aarz fﬁebnAdbrv1;urIbﬂqyudnw:.ﬂuey’4agzdﬁyoflObiFAWDM'AJecu

 

Figure 42. MILK: Index of Average Seasonal Variation of
Michigan Farm Prices and Zone of Irregularity,

1933-1942.

77
compared with 1933-1942 (Figure 43). The high- and low-
price months were about the same in both periods. From a
low index of 75 in June, prices rose to a high of 117 in
December in 1910-1919. Prices declined slowly for the next
two months, then fell rapidly in the spring to the seasonal
low in June.

Rising or Falling Prices. The seasonal pattern of milk
prices differed with rising or falling prices (Figure 44).
During periods of rising prices, milk prices deCIined from
January to June then rose steadily to a seasonal high in
December. When farm prices were falling, milk prices were
lowest in June, rose to a minor peak in September then fell

to December. The amount of variation with rising or falling
prices was about 20 percent.

Summary and Conclusions. Milk prices followed a regu-
lar seasonal pattern in 1933—l942. With a tendency toward
having more cows freshen in the fall months, better winter
feeding practices, the base—surplus method of buying milk,
and the like, the amount of seasonal variation in milk prices
became smaller between 1910-1919 and 1933-1942. The average
monthly movement of milk prices was the same under periods
of rising or falling prices from January to September. After
September, milk prices slumped when farm prices were falling

but continued upward when farm prices were rising.

ﬂNZMSK
AM, Im.‘\
A’C ‘.
\
\
lo ‘

‘ "
[00 .

8’

8

a
.0

Z5

78

 

 

 

4v.
.9
‘”I
o
o ' -
49/0 - 1.9 /‘7
I
I
I
1
I9.” «4: I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I,
I
I
I
I!
Q..’I

72>
' skzntheti A4bun4ywrIbﬁqgulbmmaukagf44ygadﬁyn£ Ckuflwkn14£hmc.

Figure 43. MILK:

Indexes of Average Seasonal Variation of
Michigan Farm Prices, 1910-1919 and 1933-1942.

79

 

 

 

 

 

ANMWSX
IWO "‘
\.
‘§

’05 Q... 91.37/75 Pr/c e:

9

“’ I‘D-n

\
‘ “Q» ‘ I’lqhﬂbgyacivceur/J’
“ I
.95 \ I
0"

.90

 

l I | I | I l

Jtuv.fimbaﬂﬂmn145urIkkyyyhmaeu/béy4425;;ﬁgcwf(Raf/Vbur(lac.

 

Figure 44. MILK: Indexes of Average Seasonal Variation
of Michigan Farm Prices for Six Years of
Rising Prices and Five Years of Falling
Prices Selected from the Years 1923-1932.

BUTTER AKD BUTTEEFAT

Seasonal Pattern. Farm butter and butterfat prices
followed similar seasonal patterns in 1933-1942 (Figures 45
and 46, and Tables XIV and XV). Prices of both were lowest
in June and rose to seasonal peaks in December. The average
price rise from June to December was 12 percent for butter
and 13 percent for butterfat, or about 3 to 4 cents a pound.
The zone of irregularity was generally greater for butter-
fat than butter. About one-third of the average annual

Table XIV - BUTTER: Average Seasonal Variation of

Michigan Farm Prices and Index of
Irregularity, 1933-1942.

 

:Average Seasonal Variation of Prices

 

 

Month : Index : Price per:Index of Ir-

: 3 pound : regularity_

(percent) (cents) (percent)
January 103.4 32 8.5
February 104.2 2 11.2
HarCh 100.2 31 8.1
April 98.6 30 9.2
may 97.2 3 5.9
June 94.0 29 5.9
July 97.1 30 9.1
August 96.6 30 7.0
September 98.5 30 6.9
October 100.5 31 6.2
November 104.2 32 5.0
December 105.5 32 8.3
Average 100.0 31 7.6

 

production of butter was manufactured by creameries in the

months of May, June, and July-~the months of heavy milk pro-

duction.

81

 

INDEX ” i

[#5

Z: /4
' "WW/W"

 

.95

.90

 

85
.kav.laeélAdbr/ﬁax-Adbynlunehjbfyuzkgyeﬁaaf:CkuF/Vburélec.

Figure 45. BUTTER: Index of Average Seasonal Variation of

Michigan Farm Prices and Zone of Irregularity,
1933-1942.

82

 

INDEX

[[5

[/0

1,
m. - ,/////A
7 "”///////’”

5&5

90

«3

 

l 1 J I I l I I J

dﬂ?
.kav.lﬁetalbﬂmr/tac-Adkgyukﬂmc.ﬂu4ya4¢§z.ﬁaat’Char/Mk»! Alec.

Figure 46. BUTTERFAT: Index of Average Seasonal Variation of
Michigan Farm Prices and Zone of Irregularity,

83

Table XV - BUTTERFAT: Average Seasonal Variation
of Michigan Farm Prices and Index of
Irregularity, 1933-1942.

 

Average Seasonal Variation of Prices

 

 

 

month : Index Price per Index of Ir-
: 4pound regularity
(percent) (cents) (percent)

January 102.2 31 10.7
February 10 .6 32 12.l
March 100.9 30 C.1
April 99.1 50 9.1
May 96.0 29 6.6
June 95.3 28 7.7
July 96.0 29 11.6
August 97.1 29 7.9
September 98.6 30 6.6
October 101.2 31 5.2
November 103.8 31 5.2
December 106.2 32 9.8
Average 100.0 30 8.5

 

Comparison 1910-1919 and 1933-1942.5/ The amount of
seasonal variation in butter prices declined 12 percent be-
tween the two periods (Figure 47). Prices in 1910-1919 were
lowest in July and highest in December, and the total varia-
tion between these two months was 24 percent.

Rising or Falling,Prices. Both butter and butterfat
were effected about the same by rising or falling farm prices
(Figures 48 and 49). When farm prices were rising, butter
and butterfat prices declined less than normal from January
to June, then rose more than normal to December. Conversely,

when farm prices were falling, butter and butterfat prices

 

5'/13utterfat prices 1910-1919 not included.

84

 

 

 

 

ANZMBX
a».
c ’0
1%0 \‘ I
‘s o"
I

/o ‘

I”'

I
10. V

AQJJ”'4QE 1“ ' "’
_ s‘ ’0’
I

90 x. c l‘

 

l L L l l l 1 l I | b

Jan. Feé Mar: Apr May June Jay Ally. Sept! 0C7! Now De 0.

 

Figure 47. BUTTER
I—lichir

U

: Indexes of Average Seasonal Variation of
an Farm Prices, 1910-1919 and 1933-1942.

85

 

INDEX

ﬁt)

   

Ikawgracwvcewr

 

/05

 

 

A00

.25

.Jamz/ﬁmé AlavrizamrJukgy.4wme.1béy4445;;ﬁgot’Cknf/warzla:

Figure 48. BUTTER: Indexes of Average Seasonal Variation
of Michigan Farm Prices for Six Years of
Rising Prices and Five Years of Falling Prices
Selected from the Years 1923-1942.

86

 

lewv§7.F?wmn:3

 

 

 

90

 

ékB
.lbvz ﬁﬁaétAdbquﬁwratﬂqu£Mﬂeulbéy.Akgyeﬁgaw’CNnKIwarlﬂec.

Figure 49. 3 TTSRFAT: Indexes of Average Seasonal
Variation of Hichigan Farm Prices for Six Years
of Rising Prices and Five Years of Falling
Pricesfkﬂected from the Years 1923-1942.

87
declined more than normal for the first six months of the
year and rose less than normal the last six months, and the
total variation from January to June was 24 percent for
both products.

Summary and Conclusions. Butter and butterfat prices

 

were lowest in the months of high milk production and highest
in the months of low milk production in 1933-1942. Butter
prices showed less seasonal change in 1933—1942 than in
l910-l9l9, but the shift was less pronounced than it was for
milk prices. Butter is manufactured during he months of
highest milk production and is moved into storage. Storage
stocks are then consumed during the months of low milk pro-
duction. The fact that butter can be stored evens out the
seasonal price variation as compared with the seasonal var-
iation of the price of milk. Prices of butterfat fell grad-
ually from January to June then rose rapidly following June
when prices were rising. The drOp and recovery in butter
and butterfat prices was sharp in each six—month period

when farm prices were falling.

SHEEP

Seasonal Pattern. Sheep prices rose from November to
a seasonal peak in March (Figure 50 and Table XVI). The
drop in price from March to July was pronounced. -The decline
in price during the Spring months resulted from heavy market-

ings, and the fact that most of the sheep were shorn before

88”

 

ANZMEX

: / .

A05

/
': /' WW
9. /

60

 

 

?

 

Jan. Feb. Max-Apr.- May June Jag .403. Sept! 0c}. Now Dec.

Figure 50. SHEEP: Index of Average Seasonal Variation of
Michigan Farm Prices and Zone of Irregularity,

being sent to market.

Sheep prices tended to be more

irregular during the highest—price months as indicated by

the shaded area in Figure 50.

in sheep prices occurred one month earlier in the more recent

Table XVI - SHEEP:

Average Seasonal Variation of

Michigan Farm Prices and Index of
Irregularity, 1933-1942.

 

Average Sea

sonal Variation of Prices

 

 

 

Month : : Price per :Index of
' Index : hundred- :Irregul-
weight : arity
(percent) (dollars) (percent)

January 101.4 3.55 6.9
February 107.2 3.75 10.6
march 111.4 3.90 11.3
April 110.8 3.88 9.0
Thy' 104.3 3.65 6.4
June 99.7 3.49 5.5
July 95.8 3.35 9.4
Aug'LlSt 9602 3.37 705
September 94.0 3.29 3.7
October 95.3 3.34 5.4
November 91.8 3.21 8.1
December 92.1 3.22 7.2
Average 100.0 3.50 7.7

 

Comparison 1910-1919 and 1933-1942. The spring peak

period than in the earlier decade (Figure 51). The amount

of seasonal variation declined about 4 percent between the

two periods. In 1910-1919 sheep prices declined more steadily
throughout the summer and fall months than they did in 1933-
1942.

Rising or Fallingtfrices. The magnitude of variation

of sheep prices was 16 percent greater when farm prices were

9O

 

ﬂMZMiX l I
Q
‘1

 

 

   
 

 

Agﬁﬁi-4kf

85
aAorz fﬂabLAAZMnAVwrIbﬂqyzﬁame.ﬂuéya4agzdﬁwo£¢OctUAﬂDM'£lec.

*January to June 1910 not included.

Figure 51. SHEEP: Indexes of Average Seasonal Variation of
Michigan Farm Prices, 1910-1919 and 1933-1942.

91

falling than when farm prices were rising (Figure 52).
Jhen all farm prices were falling sheep prices climbed
steadily from January to Harch then drOpped sharply to a
seasonal low in November. During periods of rising prices,
sheep prices followed about the usual seasonal pattern
until July. After July, the price of sheep rose irregular-
ly to December.

Summary and Conclusions. Sheep prices tended to rise
from November to March and then decline. In 1910-1919,
sheep prices lagged about one month behind the 1933-1942
pattern until September. After September prices in the
earlier period continued steadily downward to the seasonal
low in Iovember. A greater premium was placed on earlier

marketing of sheep when all farm prices were falling than

when they were rising.

LAMBS

 

Seasonalpgattern. Lamb prices varied less than 5 per-
cent from the average annual price in 1933—1942 (Firure 53
and Table XVII). From a seasonal high in March, prices fell
unevenly to a seasonal low in November. About three-fifths
of the sheep andl ambs in Michigan were marketed in the five
months, October throu “h February In Spite of the heavy

marketings in these months, the seasor a1 variation in price

was not great. Western lambs bousht in the month of heavy

92

 

 

 

‘ -O.
‘.

I
.ﬁbwhjy.F?VC£as—::~\~v’4'

.AbaL/Qstxndbc.Aymr.4%Q9zAmaei/aéy.4ch.ﬁgat‘Ckvf/var(Dec.

Figure 52.

SHE“ : Indexes of Average Seasonal Variation
of Michigan Farm Prices for Six Years of
Rising Prices and Five Years of Falling Prices
Selected from the Years 1923-1942.

93

 

INDEX

[/0

 

III////II////I/I).

IO: .

/
.90 /

Jan. Feb. Mot-4,0,.“ MayJane Ju/y Aug. \S‘ept.‘ 0C7? NOV. Dec.

 

 

 

 

Figure 53. LADIES: Index of Average Seasonal Variation of
- Michigan Farm Prices and Zone of Irregularity,
1933-1942.

94
marketings and moved into feed lots were finished and sent
to market during the five-month period--January to May.

Table XVII - LAMBS: Average Seasonal Variation of

M chigan Farm Prices and Index of
Irregularity, 1933-1942.

 

 

 

 

: Averame Seasonal Variation of Prices
. Price per Index of
Month : Index hundred- Irregul-
: weight arity
(percent)— (dollars) (percent)
January 100.9 10.02 7.6
February 101.8 10.11 9.2
March 104.8 10.41 8.5
April 101.6 10.09 8.0
May 103.5 10.28 6.0
June 105.0 10.23 5.1
July 100.7 10.00 6.1
August 90.2 9.75 6.7
September 98.5 9.78 5.3
October 95.3 9.46 7.0
November 95.2 9.45 8.3
December 96.5 9.58 7.2
Average 100.0 9.93 7.1

 

This provided a fairly even seasonal flow of slaughter
lambs to market and kept the price from advancing more in
he Spring and early summer months. The zone of irregular-
ity was relatively wide indicating considerable variability
in the price of lambs from year to year.
Comparison 1910-1919 and 1933-1942. The amount of
seasonal variation was about half as great in 1933-1942 as
in the earlier decade (Figure 54). In 1910-1919, lamb
prices fell steadily from an index of 110 in April to 91 in
Eovember, then rose evenly to the April peak. The seasonal

peak came a month earlier in the later decade.

 

INDEX . ’\

l05

 

IOO

SE5

 

5k)
.Aonz{Fimbudﬂar/ﬁorwdﬂqgaéame.AMQ/adagadkyvf‘beHAkmx'Ammo.

*January to June 1910 not included.

Figure 54. LAKES: Indexes of Average Seasonal Variation of
Michigan Farm Prices, 1910-1919 and 1933-1942.

96

Rising or Falling Prices. During periods of declining
farm prices, lamb prices fell irregularly from January
through December (Figure 55). The average drop in lamb
prices was about 24 percent or 2 dollars per hundredweight.
On the other hand, when farm prices were rising, lamb prices
fluctuated about 4 percent above and below the average annual
price throughout the year.

Summary and Conclusions. Lamb prices were highest in
the spring and summer, and tended to be lowest in the fall
and winter months in 1933-1942. The seasonal variation of
lamb prices was considerably less in 1933-1942 than in 1910-
1919. During periods of falling farm prices, there was a
greater advantage in earlier marketing han when farm prices

were rising.

470 CL

Seasonal Pattern. Wool prices were lowest in the early

Spring months and highest in June (Figure 56 and Table XVIII).

he price rise from April to June was about 10 percent or
3 cents a pound. Following June, prices fluctuated above
the average annual price until January before dropping to
the seasonal low in Marci and April. About 85 percent of
the wool in Michigan was marketed in the four months, April,
May, June, and July. The shaded area in Figure 50 indicates
that the price was more variable in th months of heaviest

marketings.

 

 

.95 ' ‘"'«|
‘ ‘F%W%29.F%7ceas——.Sb

\

.90 - \......

 

.AonllﬁabuddaruAumr.AﬁquﬂmnengqyadqynJamar:Ckm‘ﬂwourllacp

Figure 55. LAMBS: Indexes of Average Seasonal Variation
of Michigan Farm Prices for Six Years of Rising
Prices and Five Years of Falling Prices
Selected from the Years 1923-1942.

98

 

INDEX 11
//5 //
//o
lo

7 I’ll/1111.1”);

.90

. /

7.5

 

.ﬂsvz fastzlvﬁmrxyar AJbEIJZ”NB~AMéya4ac9~£€ﬁwfcmmftﬂﬂDMT(Jecu

Figure 56. WOOL: Index of Average Seasonal Variation of

Michiczan Farm Prices and Zone of Irregularity,
1933- 1942.

 

99

Table XVIII - WOOL: Average Seasonal Variation of
Michigan Farm Prices and Index of
Irregularity, 1933—1942.

 

Average Seasonal Variation of Prices

 

Month

 

 

Index : Price per : Index of Ir-
: pound : regularity
(percent) (cents) (percent)

January 100.4 29 7.4
February 97.9 28 7.9
March 93.: 27 14.4
April 95.3 27 16.0
June 103.5 30 12.3
July 103.0. 30 10.6
August 101.5 30 6.0
September 102.0 30 6.1
October 100.8 29 7.1
November 103.3 30 5.4
December 102.2 30 2.9
Average 100.0 29 8.8

 

Comparison 1910-1919_and 1933-1942. In 1933-1942, the
seasonal variation of wool prices was greater than in the
earlier period (Figure 57). Prices in the earlier period
remained within l cent per pound of the average annual price
throughout the year. Between the two periods, the low-price
month shifted from Kay to the months of Marcn and April

Rising or Falling Prices. Wool prices were highly sens-
itive to price level movements (Figure 58). During periods
of falling prices, wool prices were highest in January and
dropped 39 percent to a seasonal low in June before recover-

ing gradually to December. When farm prices were rising,
wool prices fluctuated within 2 percent of the average annual

.PPice throughout the year.

lOO

 

 

 

INDEX
A05
. .0.
100 ‘ ’ " "
v....uﬂ‘”‘ l—r—rz9ﬂ9-IQ'*
' A933 :- 4:
5i?

0km".IqeihihﬂmrAumr.tﬂqywhaoemﬂmeya4angkya£¢Dc£HA&3u'Lime.
*January to June 1910 not included.

Figure 57. WOOL: Indexes of Average Seasonal Variation of
Michigan Farm Prices, 1910-1919 and 1933-1942.

lOl

 

.ﬂVCMEX
§
' ‘
A80 .‘
‘
‘
AQ5 ‘
\
|
//o \
‘
\
AO' ‘3
\ /§%»0@7.F3hn:eur
4‘s. .AIIIIII

 

J6M1acadh.4ﬁorv45m-Ihqu.ﬂzoeuﬁméya4ggzdﬁya£40thAWOM'Alma.

Figure 5c. WOOL: Indexes of Average Seasonal Variation of
Michigan Farm Prices for Six Years of Rising
Prices and Five Years of Falling Prices Selected
from the Years 1923-1942.

Summary and Conclusions. Wool prices had a small
amount of seasonal variation in 1933-1942, but the total
amount of variation was greater than in 1910-1919. Since
the amount of variation was small, the time of marketing

of falling

O)

was of little importance except during period
prices. When farm prices were falling, earlier shearing,
or longer storage, was advantageous to avoid the low prices

in the late Spring and early summer months.

CEICKENS

Seasonal Pattern. Chicken prices reached a seasonal

 

peak in April and were lowest in December (Figure 59 and

Table XIX - CEICKELS: Average Seasonal Variation
of Hichigan Farm Prices and Index of
'Irregularity, 1933-1942.

 

Average Seasonal Variation of Prices

 

 

 

nonth : Index : Price per: Index of Ir-
: : pound : regularity

(percent) (cents) (percent)ﬁ
January 97.7 17 6.2
February 100.5 18 5.5
MaPCh 104.0 18 6.1
April 108.4 19 6.6
may 107.1 19 6.3
June 100.1 18 3.8
July 101.0 18 6.3
August 98.8 18 6.6
September 101.7 18 4.8
October 95.2 17 4.8
Hovember 92.6 16 3.3
December 91.9 15 7.7
Average 100.0 18 5.7

 

103

 

AZ5
ﬂ“)

.. //

 

 

\"

\

\

5n:
as ,/
ac

.AannIﬁe¢hahkwnduwrltﬂqguﬁmnex/béya4agadﬁgai’Cku!/var(Deon

Figure 59. POULTR : Index of Average Seasonal Variation of
Michigan Farm'Prices and Zone of Irregularity,

1933-1942.

104
§/ 1
Table XIX). 1e Spread between the high and low months

was about 18 percent or 3 cents a pound. After dropping
from April to June, chicken prices fluctuated around the
average annual level until September, then drOpped to a
seasons 1 low in December. Prices steadily rose from
December until April. Almost 80 percent of he chickens
were marketed in the last six months of the year--the months
of lowest prices. The zone of irregularity was narrowest in
.J'unezzaiid.duri.U ” the fall months.

Comparison 1310-1919 and 1933—1942. Chicken prices

 

in he earlier period were relatively high throughout the
Spring and summer months, then drOpped sharply from
Septemoer to December (Figure 60). The months of peak and
low prices were the same in both periods, but the amount of
variation was aoout 3 percent greater in the earlier decade,

Rising or Fallinngrices. When farm prices were fall-
ing, chicken prices were more favorable earlier in the year
(Figure 61). Again, prices were h ghest in April and lowest
in December. From April to June prices drOpped sharply,
then levelled off until August before falling to the seasonal
low in December. During periods of rising farm prices,
chicken prices rose from January to April, then fluctuated
above the average annual level until October. Prices dur-
ing the remainder of the year were slightly below the average
annual level.

Summary and Conclupigns. Four-fifths of the chickens

'were marketed in the lower-price months from July to December.

 

§7Tﬂ‘;e Michig n farm price of chic1e1s includes h broilers
ringers, and friers Each of t: ese have dif erent see sonal
p ice pat erns and thisi is a co :1posit of all cniclzen prices.

:3
(D
D»

105;

AN!)

”0

/O c.

‘00. .--- a...

\.

 

 

 

Sean.Iﬁc¢haﬁﬂaribmrw¢ﬂq9uéamc.ﬁméy)4z534ﬁaat’Cknf/va:(Darn

Figure 60. POUL RI: Indexes of Average Seasonal Variation of
Michigan Farm Prices, 1910-1919 and 1933-1942.

106

 

 

.ﬁm14FEuhuamanu4ywra¢ﬂqyak#w:.ﬁagra4qudﬁyaf Gknf/Mou'ZZec,

Figure 61.

POULTRE: Indexes of Average Seasonal Variation
of Mich gan Farm Prices for Six Years of Rising
Prices and Five Years of Falling Prices
Selected from the Years 1923-1942.

107
The seasonal pattern became less pronounced between 1910-
1919 and 1935—1942 even though the high- and low-price months
remained the same. During periods of rising prices, chicken
prices were more favorable during the months of heavy mar-

ketings than they were during periods of falling prices.

sass

Seasonal Pattern. From a low in June, egg prices rose
65 percent.to an index of 143 in November (Figure 62 and
Table XX). This rise represented an increase of 11 cents
Table XX - EGGS: Average Seasonal Variation of

Michigan Farm Prices and Index of
Irregularity, 1933-1942.

 

verage Seasonal Variation of Prices

 

 

 

month : Index : Price per :Index of Ir-

: : dozen : regularity

(percent) (cents) (percent)
January 103.0 23 11.9
February 91.6 20 16.0
March 80.9 18 6.8
April 79.5 18 8.1
may 79.4 18 7.0
June 77.8 17 9.3
July 88.3 20 7.8
August 96.3 21 6.2
September 108.8 24 7.1
October 125.9 28 7.5
November 143.0 52 l1.5
December 125.5 28 11.2
Average 100.0 22 0.2

 

a dozen for the five-month period. Egg production was

Du

highest in the months of March, April, Hay and June, and

108

 

ANZMBK

£50

£30

kﬂ?

//0’,

‘ﬁ‘

A

“90 ‘ay',

 

 

6k?

70 _ .

.LOV7.1:211Ivﬁmr/vDﬁW‘ﬁ29MAWQC\/béy44ZGZ~£QOtLCkuF’VbVTIDCCL

Figure 62. EGGS: Index of Average Seasonal Variation of
Ruchigan Farm Prices and Zone of Irregularity,

1933-1942.‘

109
lowest in November. In general, gg prices were hig st dur-
ing the months of low production and lowest during the months
of high production. The zone of irregularity was relatively
narrow indicating that prices tended to follow the average
seasonal pattern closely in all years.

Comparison 1910-1919 and 1933-1942. The seasonal varia-
tion of egg prices wa sgreater in 1935-1942 than in the
earlier period (Figure 63). Egg prices varied about 52 per-
cent between the hi h and low men ha in 1910-1919. The most
significant shift was that the seasonal peak was reached in
December instead of a month earlier as was true in t1 e later
decade.

Rising or FallingPrices. Whether or not farm prices
were rising or falling had little effect on the seasonal var-
iation of egg prices (Figure 84). In either case, prices
were lowest in the spring and summer months and highest in
November. The magnitude of variation was about 66 percent in
both periods about the same as it was in the period 1935-1942.

Summary and Conclusions. Egg prices had a large amount
of seasonality and followed a regular pattern in all years.
Between 1910-1919 and 1933—1942, egg prices been me more vari-
able, and the highest price month shifted from December to
November. About one—half of the eggs was produced in the four
months March through June. Eggs normally move into storage
during these months and are consumed during the months of low

production. Ap,~ sarent y, the improved storage facilities durirs

‘0

llO

JNZMSX

AﬂD

 
 
 
 
  
   

/9/0 "' /9
xeo ‘

[9583‘4h8

 

70'
ukmnu/ﬁetm.bﬁmrAymr.tﬂQ9nAmneuﬁuéyadagplﬁgairCku’ﬂVbu:(Zach

Tﬂzrw '1

Figure o3. LJJD: Indexes of Average Seasonal Variation of
Mich gan Farm Prices, 19l0-1919 and 1933-1942.

111

 

[A4151

Ann
[30
A20.

\
170 \

 

 

/oo 3"
I
‘90 Kaumqg'/%nn:ea- "i'
'0
‘pﬂ""7faﬂb§7.ﬁ%vces-

6M) , ' ‘Nb.
-O 0"

 

.Aannfﬁﬂh.4ﬂmﬁ AmcmrAMbganvuelﬂwé/¢4quékymf<9 f Aﬂou'AZa:

Figure o4. EGGS: Indexes of Average Seas
of Michigan Farm Prices for Si:

Rising Prices and Five Years 0
1

Selected from the Years 1923-

"b

112

the more recent years had little effect on the seasonality

d

of fresh egg prices. The seasonal pattern of egg prices

or)

was almost unaffected by rising on falling farm prices

113

BIBLIOGRAPHY
Anonymous
Hay, l9zY Prices of Farm Products Received by
Producers in the Forth Central States,
U.S.D.A. Statistical Bulletin l5.
Anonymous

December, l94o Agricultural Outlook Charts l947,
UOSODOAO’ BOAOE.

Anonymous
l925 through
l947 Crop Report of Michigan, Annual Crop and
Livestock Summary, Michigan Department
of Agriculture Cooperating with the
U.S.D.A.

Buchanan, M. T.
September, 1944 Seasonal Variation in Prices of Washington
Farm Products, State College of Washington,

Agricultural Experiment Station Bulletin
52.

Butz, E. L.
May, 1942 Seasonal Variation of Indiana Farm Prices,

Purdue University Agricultural EXperiment
Station Bulletin 469.

Norton, L. J.
July, 1941 When Should Grain Be Marketed, University
of Illinois Extension Circular 516.

Waugh, A. E.
1943 Elements of Statistical Method, McGraw-
Hill Book Company, Inc.

Ulrey, Orion
June, 1934 Michigan Farm Prices and Costs 1910-1934,
Michigan State College Agricultural

EXperlment Station, Technical Bulletin
139.

114

APPEKDIX A

Illustration of Method Used in the Computation
Of

The Index of Average Seasonal Variation

115

ILLUSTRATION OF METHOD USED IN 3E COMPUTATION

OF THE INDEX OF AVERAGE SEASOKAL VARIATION

The 12-honth Moving Total. The method used in comput-
ing the index of average seasonal variation of Michigan farm
prices was the 12-month moving total with each monthly price
expressed as a percent of this trend. his procedure gives
an adjusted index and is illustrated in Table XXI. The mid-
month farm price of corn appears in the first column under
each year. These prices were totaled for one year, centered
on the seventh month, and entered in column two under each
year. Thus the $3.90 that appears opposite January in the
second column under 1933 represents the total of the monthly
prices from July 1952 through June 1933. The February 1933
moving total figure of $4.16 represents the total of the
monthly prices from August 1932 through July 1933. Other
figures in the moving total columns were calculated in the
same manner. Trend and price cycles, other than a 12-month
cycle, appear in the l2-month moving total. By eliminating

he trend and cycles, only the seasonal variation remains.
This was done by expressing each monthly price as a percent
of the 12—month moving total. These figures appear in the
third column under each year in Table XXI and were used as
a basis for computing the index of average seasonal varia-

tion for the period.

116

I

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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ma.a as.” as. us.m mm.s ms. ss.a sm.m as. am. .poz
sm.m Km.s an. so.a sa.m 0a. an.” ma.“ mm. am. .soo
mo.m ou.a Na. mw.o Ne.m mm. NN.m mm.m H . mm. .pomm
mm.m om.m ma. m~.m mﬁ.m ma. 0s.0H mm.m mm. mm. .msa
mm.m wa.m mm. mﬁ.w m~.~ mm. mm.HH a0.m 0m. am. sass
mm.m w:.m mm. mo.~ mm.” mm. m0.0 am.: as. «use
mm.w am.m mm. mm.n @0.» mm. mH.o mm.s mm. as:
m .w mm.m am. on.“ mw.m mm. .os.~ sm.s m . .naa
HHow jN-om m”. NOom Mdow Nmo mHom wMO+~ No .oHCmH
.mmow ANN-m WW. mHom New Hm. m cm Wuhan NW0 00.0.“
.m mm.m mm. 0m.~ 0m.m ms. m .m 0m. pm. .cse
ammo mama mama pamo mth mth #200 mama mama pcmo mpwﬁ mama
Inmm Iaoq Iaon Ipmm iaom naom 190m tﬂmp‘ Iaeml upmm Iaon Iaoo
,Hmpoav Hmpoe proa, kuoH. proe Hmpoa proa Hmpoe "
anaboz ms“ .59 ucﬁbom ms“ .59 mcﬁpoz ms“ .59 wcﬁboz man .59 "
m0 pcmo I>0z neg Ho psmo Iboﬁ pea m0 pace Ibom 90% mo pcmo Iboz 90a " epsoq
them m .02 oodpm 190m we .0: moﬁpm Inmm mm .02 moﬂpm them we .03 monum" . .
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.mmoapm sﬂspcoa asaaaoﬁz

”Emoo I HNN maﬁme

117

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

wH.w mm.m mm. 0~.~ am.m ms. sw.m N0. mm. 0m.w mm.HH mm. .000
mH.w mm.m Hm. Hw.~ m0.m a . :m.m ~.m am. m~.m w.0H mm. .poz
Mm.w mH.m mm. mm.w w0.m 0-. AH.~ m.0H sa. m:.m mm.0H am. .poo
.m m0.m mm. ms.w mH.m mm. 0m.m mw.0H Nw.H mm.0H m~.m 00.H .pamm
Nw.~ H0.m we. mm.m MN.m Mm. mm.0 mN.HH .H om.0H NN.m H0.H .wse
m0.m :m.m we. mm.w :m.m . mm.0H NN.HH HN.H mm.w m~.w ms. aHse
0m.w ww.m 0m. mm.m Hs.m mm. m~.m mH.mH mH.H s.m mm.w mm. maze
mm.w aw.m ms. mm.w mm.m em. mm.m mm.mH HN.H m.m mm.~ mm. ass
mm.m mw.m we. s0.w m .m an. mH.m o~.mH NH.H H~.m ma.” mm.. .pga
mam Sum 9. 9w; Mm; em. Mm; mth 00.H Hmd mm; mm. .32
mw.~ mw.m m:. m .m ~.~ Mm. m.m am.mH 00.H NH.~ 0m.~ mm. .noa
,NNoN Nmom w:- mNoW Mdow o wﬁow NNoNH 80H WOQN WMoN- Nmo ogwh.
pace man mpwH pmmo mnsH mpwH pamo mnsH mpsH ammo mpsH mpwH
upsm xHon nHopn. lama uHomn. nHon lawn. :Hop‘ uHon nymn. uHmmw, uHmm‘
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ungo. paw wchoz maH maHbom msH mchos mcH
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moHpm NH. moHpm moHpm NH moHpm moHnm NH moﬂnm moHum NH moHum
mmmH wmmH ammH mmmH

 

 

 

 

 

hemsnapcoov : Hex mesa

118

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

mm.m N .OH mm. 0H.w wm.m ” Nmuw m “M :m. .000
m. m .0H .jw. mH.w MN.m W o: m NM Mm. .boz
mmom H.300...“ mm. 10w 00m 0 Ojow O om: we OPOO
mm.m mm.0H mm. H0.m mw.m 0m. sm.m Hm.m es. .pgmm
Mums 8.2 as. mum 86 E. was m . $4 .asa
mu.w m0.0H mm. w.w mm.m an. 0m.m HN.~ No. aHse
0s.w 00.0H aw. ms.w ms.m Hm. 0m.m. m0.~ Hm. mess
00.H as.m Hm.m am. mm.w mm.m om. Hm.w mm.m mm. awe
mm. wrom NWOW mm. mﬂow mﬁow Nam. MOow mwom Tm. oppd.
44%. cm N-onw NW0 mMQN anow MW. mam-N mﬁom .Umo 0....de
H00 cm 000 mm. mOoN HGON MW. Nﬂom Hmom M o 030%
mm. 0N.w Hm.0 ma. mm.m mn.~ as. mH.w ~:.m m. .ame
pace mpsH mymH pamo mpsH wpwH pcmo mnsH mpsH pnmo wpmH mpmH
190A IHom IHom 190m IHmmi. IH0m Imwm, IHoo :Hnmv lama IHon twon
proe Hemoe proe proe Hspoe pros Hmpoe Hmpoa
wchom mcH .sp msHpoz mcH .59 mchcm NQH .59 msHbox maH .59
M0 pcoo ipoz neg M0 ammo IboE pom m0 pamo Iboﬁ 9mm mo pcmo Iboﬁ pen ,
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moHnm NH moHpm NH moHpm NH moHpm NH
msmH NemH HsmH czmH

 

 

 

 

 

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ll9
Method of Computation. The method of computing the
average seasonal variation for corn is shown in Table XXII.
Table XXII - CORK: Computation of Index of Average

Seasonal Variation of Michigan Farm
Prices, l933-l942.

 

 

 

Average of Percents Index of Average
of Moving Total Seasonal Variation
Month For (Individual Items
10 Col. 1 4 Average
Years of Col. 1)
(percenty (percent)
January 7.81 94.1
February 7.76 93.4
march 7.70 92.7
April 8.04 96.8
May 8.37 100.8
June 8.44 101.6
July 9.07 109.2
August 9.19 110.7
September 9.21 110.9
October 8.46 101.9
November 7.82 94.2
December 7.78 93.7
Average 8.30 100.0

 

Each price, expressed as a percent of the 12-month moving
total, was averaged by months for the lO-year period and ap-
pears in the first column in the table. To convert these
monthly figures to an index number, each average monthly
price (expressed as a percent of the moving total) was divid-
ed by the average for the lO-year period. For January, the
index of 94.1 was calculated by dividing 7.81 percent by
8.30 percent and multiplying by 100. Thus the index of
average seasonal variation shows the relationship between

the average price in any one month and the average lO-year

 

120
adjusted price. To convert the index number to do1lars per
wshel, the average price of corn in the 10 years was multi-

plied by the average index of each month.

 

Index of Irre> 1119? ﬁx. The index of irregularitv was
computed as one standiad deviation from ea ch avera‘e month-

iv Price (expressed as a percent of the moving total). The

J

 

formula used was

ggxgz -

standard deviation (V’) a, E X:

 

:r2)

wherei( was he summation of the squares of the prices pre—

was the number of

fur)

vailing in one month for ten years,
years (ten), and :2 was the square of the avera3e monthi1
price. To compute the index of irre3ula rity for corn for

January in tr e period 1933 to 1942, the followinc computa-

‘(J

g

tionsyere made:

 

 

Avera3e Avera3e honthly
January Honthl Price Price Squared
M (K2

1933 6.92 47.8864
1934 7.90 52.4100
1935 0.93 79.7449
1956 7.06 49.8436
1937 8.18 66.9124
1955 0.79 45.9975

1939 7.77 00,3729
1940 6.19 67.0781

1941 8.22 57.5664
1942 0.20 67.2400

 

Avera3e 7.81 61.47523

 

P7
529, and

’37.,1 :5 , I?) f
the value 01 A“ or 7.81“ was 00.9961. Substituting i

*cb-L

Q ‘ '5‘ o p.‘ q ,: ,- q —. + Q '1 P!
tne formula, tne value 01 one staniaal deviation oecome

v - {31.47523 - 011.9901

 

i
I .63, and the in ex of irre3u1arity

was calculated by dividin3 i .69 times 100 by 8.30 This
rives a value of 1 8.3 percent, and the upper and lower
U ..

limits of the zone of irre3ularity for corn in January

193 3- -1942 was 94.1 8.3 or 102.4 and 85.8 respectively.

The index of irregularity for oth—r months wta s computed in
the same manner. One standard deviation includes 68.27
percent of the cases or,rou3hly, seven years out of ten.
Adiusted Index for Larre and Snail props. For lar
and small crops, the ad
het years on the basis of whether or not United States pro-
duction we 3 10 percent or more aoove or below the average
for tne 20-year period in any year. when total produc-
tion varied less nan 10 percert from the avera3e, it was
called an avera3e crop.
“ —~ for Risin3_or Tallin3 Prices. An
unaiju3t-ed inrex was used for showin3 the effect or risin3
or falliz-3 farm prices on t1~.e seasonal variation of live—
stock and lives ock products prices. From January through

Decemoer in t1 -e years 1923 to 1942, there were nine 3e arS

when farm prices rose or fell 1 ss than 10 percent, six

years when farm prices
years when farm prices

average monthly prices

‘
118

ing

selected years..

seasonal variat

ros more than 10 percent and live
fell more than 10 percent. h

were used directly for determin-

ion of these products for the

APPLIED I}: 23

The Use of A Circular iraph

For Showing Avera

(‘0
;;_)‘-’

Seasonal Variation

’3

124
THE U33 07 A CInCULAR 1R3“H F0 R SIO”HI"C

r‘ —1 ‘ ’V j T If 'q‘uv
“If“?uazvu Lia—011 J02. ‘ 1‘1; XIELL _!\LT AC .n

Intro:1uction. A circular 3raph was devised to avoid

 

son e of the pose sible disconceptions which arise with the
use of the conventional 3raph. In order to show the sea-
sona moveient between each of the 12 months, 13 months
must be included on the base line.» This means that the
first month at the be3innin3 of the base line is usually
repeated at the end of the base line. Thus, if the months
run from January throu3h December, and Jan ary is repeated
following December, it may be thou3ht of as a following
January re tier than the same one. The same criticism may
be made, but to a lesser extent, for the charts used in
this study. For these cha ts, a half-month interval was
left at the beginning and the end of the lO—month period.
The avera3e seasonal variation for the half-month intervals

‘

was determined from the index values of the beginnin3 and
the end n3 months used. This neth d of chartin3 is more
valid since mid-month farm prices were used as a basis for
determinin3 the avera3e seasonal variation.

Interpretation. The circular graph, similar to the one
shown in Fi31re 65 can be interpreted by liotin3 the rela-
tionship of the avera3e seasonal variation line with the
base (100 percent) line. When the avera3e seasonal varia-
tion line was in side the base line, the price was below

average. C nversi ely, when the aveaa3se se.asona1 variation

(DID:

 

1
NOV. J’4 ”-
ocr \“ ”Hm” FEB.
\\\\ //
\\\\\\\ :\\\\\“\WW’WW ,//
\\\\\ \\\ ////

 

 

\\
\\\\\\
\\\\
a é
§ é
\ /
I I 41?“ QI I ‘33

RIM-x: -/25 IOO - 75 ~50

 

 

 

 

\\\\\\\\ \3r

, ‘ \ \ =
/ §
§
§
\

 

'\

MA Y
JULY I

Figure 65. rOTATOZS: Index of Average Seasonal Variation

of Michigan Farm Prices and Zone of Irregularity,
1933-1945. (Compare with Figure 19).

I ‘ APR
//////// i w '

44£4¥

oase line, the price was asove

-s . . C . n. “3‘ . , . ,-. .0
Advanta3es of the rcular SEED“. One advanta3e oi

 

the circular 3raph 18 that the llLGS are continuous. Tha
is, if the months of the yea‘ run from January hrou3h

December, there is a line connectin3 Decemoer with January.
This avoids the nossiole misconcegtion that arises when 13

months are shown on the base line. The amount of ariation

U4!

can be vi sua liz ed y observin3 how far the avera3e seasonal
variation line is from the 100 percent line or by observing
how far off- ce ter the line app are in relation to the

center of the base line. A circular 3rayh may be inter-

n.

breted more rapi'lv when the months of the year are assoc-
iated with the nut: isers on the face of a clock. The sixth
month of the year (June) appears in the same position as
six on the face of a cloch.

Disadvanta3es of the Circular Graph. The 3reatest
disadvantage of he circular 3raph lies in its unconver-
tional form. A price that is above avera3e in December lies
aoove the 100 percent line, whileeiprice at love avercee in
June lies below the 100 percen line. Another disadvan-
ta3e lies in the fact that the distances between months are
distorted as the relative price for different months moves

above or below the avera3e for the year. Accuracy is sacri-

fic ed somewhat , since the scale must necessarily oe reduced

("F

o 3et the chart into the same area.

126
Conclusions. The use of a circular chart depends

upon what it is desirable to show. For ease of 3raspin3

and for 3eneralizations it has some merit. { wever, its
use should be limited when accuracy in read as or compar—

‘u

ing other than adjacent months is desirable.

TABLE
NUMBER

Ia

IIa

IIIa

IVa

Va

VIa

VIIa

VIIIa

APPENDIX C
SUPPLEMENTARY TABLES

CORN: Average Seasonal Variation of Michigan
Farm Prices and Elevator Purchases, Selected

Periods, 1910 to 1942. . . . . . . . . . .

WINTER WEEAT: Average Seasonal Variation of
Michigan Farm Prices and Marketings, Selected
Periods, i9iO to 1942. . . . . . . . . . . .

OATS: Average Seasonal Variation of Michigan
Farm Prices and Marketings, Selected Periods,

1910 to 1942. o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o

BARLEY: Average Seasonal Variation of Michigan
Farm Prices and Marketings, Selected Periods,

1910 to 1942. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

REE: Average Seasonal Variation of Michigan
Farm Prices and Marketings, Selected Periods,

1910 to 1942. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

FIELD BEANS: Average Seasonal Variation of
Michigan Farm Prices and Marketings, Selected
Periods, 1910 to 1942. . . . . . . . . . . .

POTATOES: Average Seasonal Variation of
Michigan Farm Prices and Marketings, Selected

Periods, 1910 to 1942. . . . . . . . . . . .

HAY: Average Seasonal Variation of Michigan

Farm Prices and Marketings, Selected Prices,
‘0'0 1'.“ '04:) . . . . . . . o o o o o O o

127

 

131

134

137

TABLE
NUMBER

IXa

XIa

XIb

XIIa

XIIIa

XIVa

APPENDIX C

SUPPLEMEKTARY TABLES - (Cont'd) 128

PAGE

ﬂ

APPLES: Average Seasonal Variation of Michigan

Farm Prices, Selected Periods, 1910 to 1942. - 13o

HOGS: Average Seasonal Variation of Michigan
Farm Prices and Marketings, Selected Per10ds,

l9lU to 1942. O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O 139

CATTLE: Average Seasonal Variation of Michigan
Farm Prices and Marketings, Selected Periods,
191‘.) to 1944. o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o 1%

BEEF STEERS: Average Seasonal Variation in the
Prices Paid for Selected Grades and Index of

Irregularity, Chicago, 193: to 1942. . . . . . 141

VEAL CALVES: Average Seasonal Variation of
Michigan Farm Prices and Marketings, Selected

Periods, Lalo to 1942. . . . . . . . . . . . . 142

WHOLESALE MILK: Average Seasonal Variation of
Michigan Farm Prices and Marketings, Selected

PeriodS, 1910 to 1942. . . . . . . . . . . . . 143

BUTTER: Average Seasonal Variation of Michigan
Farm Prices and Manufacturings, Selected Periods,

1910 to 1942. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 144

BUTTERFAT: Average Seasonal Variation of
Michigan Farm Prices, Selected Periods, 1923
to 1942 . O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O 0 11+5

TABLE
NUMBER

XVIa

APPEKDIX C 129
SUPPLEMENTARY TABLES - (Cont'd)

; f1?
Pﬂau

SHEEP: Average Seasonal Variation of Michigan
Farm Prices and Marketings, Selected Periods,

1910 to 1942. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 146

XVIIa LAMBS: Average Seasonal Variation of Michigan

Farm Prices and Marketings, Selected Periods,
1910 to 1942 . O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O 147

XVIIIa WOOL: Average Seasonal Variation of Michigan

XIXa

Farm Prices and Marketings, Selected Periods,
1910 to 1942 . O O > O O O O O O O O O O O O O O lLI-B

CHICKENS: Average Seasonal Variation of Michigan
Farm Prices and Marketings, Selected Periods,

1910 to 1942 . ' C O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O 149

EGGS: Average Seasonal Variation of Michigan
Farm Prices and Production, Selected PeriOds,

1910 to 1942, . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 150

130

.mm. was .jm. .om.

.am. .mm. .mm. .Hm. .mm. .mm. .am.
.ma. use :2: .mm. .mm.

pans oHonB

.dmmﬂ a“ noDOPoo a“ mnaunﬁmop undo» “oases moodaonH \m

.04: and .mm. .mm.

.mmma a“ noQOpOO as mnaanawmp whack pounds mocsHosH xw
.mmma nu noQOpoo qa mcaczdwop muse» pmmnws mmvdaosH \m
pmmnwo: op Bonuses was umpmsncw who pass you mooﬁum \H

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

mm.m mm. o.oo~ mm. o.ooa ma. o.ooa mm. o.ooa mmwuopa
3 mm. mSm mm. m. mm 0H. H. mm .8. 91% Sassoon
m mm. o.am m. m.am Ha. mpam mm. :.mm ponsmpoz
w mm. .moa m. m.Hoa ma. H.Hoa mm. m.moH nonopoo
w m. .8H t. m. m: mm. mica :0. H m .moa “353%
a m. o.moa on. m.HHH aw. «.mHH :o.H w.woa pmsmsa
5 mm. m.m0a an. a.aoa aw. «.mHH Ho.a .:.moa mass
m am. m.moa mm. w.ooa ma. m.Hoa mm. .moa mass
m mm. m.ooa am. .wm ma. m.mm am. .aoa as:
m Hm. ©.mm mm. o.~m ma. m.mm mm. m.~m Hanna
m am. ”yum mm. m.mm on. mumm om. ~.mm nous:
m mm. a. m mm. m.mm :. ﬁam om. :. mm ﬁwsupma
0H mm. m.mm am. m.mm Ha. m.:m Hm. m.:m aussqae
psoonom mnwaaon pdmouom mpwaaon pcooao mnwaao pdmonm manHon psmonom
nonthHH III“ 11L! u!
an Hannah Hogans . Hmamsp Hmnmsp
mommnousm \w “on Hausa \A non NooaH \w non HoocH \w non HmodH
.33 “:82 mo an mo in mo 3 mo an
mz.lm:ma on“ Hﬂosm mono owmpob<. NM mono owqu nuno
0» m:.:m:mﬂ 0» am.ummmH mHmHuOHmH a
#mrlmmmﬂ
mommaonsm nopmpoam and mooﬁnm Ho nowadays» Hanomwom owwno><
.wzmH op oama .muoapom empomﬂom
.mmmsnopsm nopwpmam was mmoaumvshwﬁ damaged: Mo doﬁpwapmb stommmm ommpobd ”zmoo I wH mqm¢e

131

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

.on. was .mn. .an. .nn. .mmma sash as waaqqamon_mnwoa pmanma mmvsaqu xm
.ow. ens .mn. .an. .mn. .mm. .om. .am. .nmma sash a“ waannﬁmop magma poanms.moesaoaH \&
.ma. was .Ha. .mn. .HS. .0». .mm. .amma aaas as madnqawmn_mumma pmxnms maesaqu \N
.paoo maon3_pmonwmn op counson was copmsnuw can pass non mooanm \H
an.m «o.a o.ooa mm. o.ooa no. o.ooa mm.a o.ooa ommnou4
o ¢O.H o.ooa mm. m.moa am. a.ooa nn.a m.mo nonsmooo
o Ho.a m.am am. n.5m no. n.am mn.a 0.5m nonsopoz
a Ho.a b.0o mo. b.mm mm. n.aa mm.a n.5m nanopoo
oa mo.a 0.5m mo. o.mm mm. n.¢o on.a ¢.om nonsopmom
pa ao.a a.mm am. n.mm mm. H.oo om.a n.mm pmsmqq
Hm oo.a n.moa mm. n.mm mm. m.mm on.a n.om hash
m oo.a m.ma om. m.moa am. H.ooa mn.a H.moa cash
m mo.a m.mo Ho.H m.moa «o.a a.aoa ¢¢.H a.ooa has
n oo.a o.moa mm. o.moa no.a H.ooa o«.H o.¢oa Hauma
o oo.a m.Hoa am. m.aoa no.a H.00H- an.H n.aoa Bonus
o oo.a ¢.¢oa oo.H m.woa mo.a ¢.moa on.a b.moa anmsnnmm
o mo.a m.noa Ho.a o.moa oo.a o.noa mn.a m.aoa aaasqaa
pqoonom mnoaaon pqoonom mnwaaoa pdoonom meHHoQ unoonom mnoaaon pqoonmm
mmua ﬁnnmsp Hmamsp Hmnmsn Hmnman
upmMstn \H non HonnH \A.nom HoosH \A non HounH \H Hog HmonH
hanpqoa ooHHm ooﬁnm ooﬁnm ooﬁnm
n¢.umwma NW mono Hamam xm mono owwnmbd \m mono owan
on —:J u . mamauoama apnea
mwnapoxnws odd mooanm no noapwanmb,amqomwom omdnmbd

 

 

.maaa op oama .meoanom empomaom .mmnapoxnwa
can mooﬁnm Show quﬁnoﬁz no qoapwﬁnwb Hwnomwom omwno>¢ “Bammg.mMHZH3 u wHH mumdﬁ

pmxnws moosaonH \m

.mm. and .mm. .am. .mmma aﬂsn a“ meanqﬁmop mamas
.d1. ﬁnd

132

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

.oa. .mm. .am. .mm. .Hm. .mm. .am. .mm. .mmma aasu as maaanammp magma poapaa mousaoaH xm
.N3. and .mm. .om. .mm. .mm. .immH hash a“ wsﬁsnamop mnmoh pmxnws mousaonH \
.pnoo oaonk pmmnwon on coosson one cmpmanuw and pans non mmownm H
mm.w ma. o.ooa mm. 0.00H as. o.ooa Hm. o.ooa mmsumpa
w 2. mém mm. ﬁooa mm. Tmm ma. 9.3 80.308
m 3. mtsm R. 93 mm. 9mm E. m. mm 30.552
w 0:. aszm mm. .M.Hm mm. m.mm as. H.mm nopepoo
ma ma. a.moa mm. .aw mm. ~.am w . 0.:m pogaopamm
ma :. o.ooa mm. w.mw mm. :.mm H . m.ooa pmswsa
w ma. :.mm 0:. m.m0H ma. o.mda mm. m.m0H hash
m m:. w.wm 0:. a. 0H as. .aoa am. w.moa mass
m as. m.moa Ha. o.~oa ad. .moa m. m.~oa am:
w m:. o.m0H 0:. m.m0H ma. H.NOH m. m.aOH Hanna
a ma. H.:oa on. o.:oa as. ~.ooH Hm. :.HOH Bonds
m :a. m.HOH ca. H.moa ma. m.HOH Hm. H.ooa mussupoa
m as. H.Hoa 0a. o.aoa ma. m.Hoa cm. o.wm anmsnwa
PGOOH 0M manHoQ PGOOH mm m HGHH on Famoumm deHHoQ pQOOHWW mHmHHOQ Ramon m
Hmamsp j _ ﬂag: SS3 ﬁg 3 m
mwna \H “on «mean \H mom HoonH \H non MoccH \H non chnH
upmxnms ooammv moawu moan“ ooammv
hanpnoz NH one Hﬁwmm x\mlmono owwuobni {\m moymvummmurl
ma. imama m:.ummma 0p am.ammma l mamatoama apaoa
op
:m. Immmﬂ
wwnapoxnmﬁ cum mooanm Ho soapsﬁnm> accommom omwuob<
.mama op cama .meoauom empowaom
.mmaapmaum: can mmoapm Egan camaaoaa mo noapwana> Hanomamm mmwnm>< ”maao u mHHH mamas

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.mm. cam .jm. .mm .Hm. .mm. .mm. . m. .mmmH pmsms< aw madcaﬁmmp mama» «magma moosaodH \l
.mm. was . m. .mmma pm2m5¢ a“ mnﬂacﬁmop mpwmh pmxuma moosﬁocH \W
.ma.eaa .a:. .o:. .mm .mm. .mm. .om. .mm. .mmma pmsms< as madcaammn mums» pmapms mmssHocH \m
.pcmo mach: pmmnwma on Boondon was cmpmsmcw mum pass non mooapm \H
mm.w mm. o.ooa am. o.ooa mm. o.ooa mm. o.ooa mmmnmpa
m oa. o.aoa mm. m.am mm. ~.ooa Hm. m.mm amasoomn
0 mm. o.mm om. m.mm mm. m.mm om. o.mm panampoz
m mm. m.wm mm. n.mm am. o.~m ma. m. m nopowoo
NH mm. H.mm mm. H.mm mm. o.mm ow. m.Mm umnsmpomm
Mm mm. H.00H m. . o.mw m. m.mm mm. m. m pmsmaa
am. .mm wW. o.woa m. m.ooH mm. o.aoa hash
m ow. .QOH w.moa mm. m.HoH om. o.moa mesa
m ow. H.Hoa WW. ~.mHH Hm. a.moa mm. m.moa gag
m an. m.moa mm. m.aoa Hm. ~.moH mm. o.mOH Hausa
a ow. ~.ooa mm. m.moH om. W.moa mm. m.Hoa Beams
w on. ~.Hoa mm. m.moa Hm. w.m0H mm. H.ooa anssnnma
m ow. o.moa mm. :.Hoa mm. o.ooH aw. m.m0H Aymsmmu
pdoonmn mpmaaom pmoouwm, mnwaaon scoopoﬁv mpoaaop pnmono mnwﬂamm, unmoumwv
as Hmnmsp amawsp Hmamsp ngmsp
Ipmxpmﬁ \H you Noenm \H pom HoosH \H pom NoosH \ﬂ 9mg woosH
hﬂnpsoﬂ moanm moan“. moHMMI, moanm
m:.Im:mH .waeonw Hawsm NM,moww,mmdpm>4 NNIQowb mmpmn
Hm. mmnma ma.ImamH ow sm.ummma mHmHIonH apnea

 

 

 

wmsﬁpmxpmﬁ was moOHnm mo noﬁpwﬂpwb chomwom owwpo>¢

 

 

.mmaapmxpma was mooaum Bush nmmﬁnoaﬁ no noﬁpmﬁnwb accommom mmmnmba

.mamﬂ 0» oama .meoapmm empomamm

"hmqm4m I mbH Hgm¢a

pmxpwe mmcﬁaosH \
pmxuwe wmusaozH \w

.mm. ogm.:m. .mm. .Hm. .mm. .wmma hash a“ mcﬁccﬁmmp mpwma
.03. cam .mm. .mm. .OM. .wm. .mmma mash ma unﬁngﬁMmp mummh

134

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

.m3. and .Hd. .wm. .Nm. .mm. .mm. .dm. .mmma >H§h a“ wcﬁcnﬁmmp mummh pmxpwa mmvsaocH \m
.pcmo maonk pwmuwmn 0p cmoason cam umpmsnvw mud pans 9mg mmoapm \H
mm.w Km. 0.00H mm. o.ooa mm. o.ooa mo.H o.ooa mmmumpd
m ww. N.Hoa om. w.moa aw. m.moH mQ.H m.ooa pmpﬁmomn
m pm. o.ooa mm. w.ooa mm. 0.00H Ho.H w.mm umaam>oz
m mm. w.wm mm. m.ooa op. H.m0H mm. :.~m “mpOpoo
mH mm. H.HOH ow. m.m0H mm. :.wm mm. m.mm pmgampgmw
mN mm. w.moa mm. H.mm m. m.mm mm. m.wm pwdws«
ma mm. :.NOH m. m.mm m. .mm mm. o.~m hash
m m. m.:m m. m.:m mm. m.mm mo.a m.HoH mash
m m. w.mm mm. ~.HOH mm. m.mm mo.H 0. 0H hwy
m Fm. ~.mm mm. ~.Hoa mm. o.mm mo.H N. OH Hang<
: No. ﬁ.mm Nu. w.mm mm. o.moH o.H m.moH mega:
m pm. u.OOH m . o.moa mp. ~.moa o.H m.Hoa hymsupmh
mm. o.m0H mm. m.m0a in. :.moa mo.H ~.ooa upmsnwh
ammonmm manHon pnmopmm manHon pqmomwm, mnmaaon pnmoumm mnwaaon pdmoumm
upwwmmd ammmsp III, Hansp ngmup .I memsm
haapcom \H Hog xmvcH \H 909 xmwcH \H 9mm NmuaH \H 9mg Noan
mi. INde 00 HWW ooWnﬁ moan—Wm. mOHHm
0p \ipombwaﬁwmmI \m,comblgwwnm>¢ I\m comb ownww
:m.ImmmH m:.Im:mH 0p :m.ImmmH mamﬁuoama apnea
mmnapmxnms cam mmoanm Ho nowpwﬁpwb chomwmm mmmnmp<

 

 

.mmqﬁpmxpmﬁ and mmoﬁpm apwh cwwﬁgoaz mo nowpmﬁumb Hwnowwmm mmwpobd

.mjmﬁ 0p oama .mgoapmm Umpomﬁmm

"mhm I db mamde

:J .dm. «mm. .mm. .Nm. .mm. .mm. .dm. .mmma pmpSmpmmm a“ maﬁmnﬁmmn mama»

.mm. .93

pmxnws mmvdaqu \I

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

mwcﬁpmxnmﬁ and mmoaum ho nowpwanwb Hmaomwwm mmmnm>«

 

my .mm. cam .mm. .HM. .mmma nmnampmmm a“ wcﬁcaammp mnwmh pmxnwa mmvdaonH \
.m:. can .H:. .03. .mm. .mm. .mm. .ommH panampamm a“ maamcﬂmwp maMm» pmxnma mmvsaonH \m
.pmmo mHoaB pwmnwmc 0p vmuHSOn wad Umpmdhuw mum pass “ma mmoﬁnm \H
mm.w :w.: o.ooH wa.m o.ooa 5:.m o.ooa :m.m o.OOH ammum>4
3 Ra: 9mm mad mim om.m m.mm imam mama $9288
ma m~.: w.~m. mm.m m.HoH cm.m m.mm Hm.m m.mm umpsmpoz
ma mm.: n.mm HH.m m.~m mm.m o.mm mm.m .wm pmpomoo
w of: dam Ram m6: 0 .m w.m3 wm.m m.wm Spamppmm
: m¢.m :.moa w~.m o.mHH o:.m o.mm mm.m m.moa pmsms«
w 50. m. 0H mm.m ~.Hoa mm.m :.uoa m~.m w.aoa >Hsh
a ﬂaw o. S 88 ﬁMm Ram oﬁoa 5m 98H 22.
m mo. m.:oa wo.m o. m mm.m m.moa m~.m H.moH has
5 pm.: m.00H mm.m m.Hm Fm.m o.ooH mm.m m.om ﬁﬁaa<
m m~.: w.~m mo.m :.mm NI.m m.mm :m.m m.mm nous:
m mm.: m.oo~ mm.m H.HOH mm.m w.~m Hm.m m.mm huwdnpmh
m :w.: m.mm :o.m ~.mm H:.m m.mm mm.m H.00H huwsuah
pamopm muwHHoQ pamOHmm mawaaoa yamoumm manHon pcmonmm unmade pawonm
mwnn .980 .930 .pBQI III .pBo
IpmanE \m 9mg MaccH \w pom xmvaH \m.pmm MmuaH \ﬂ 9mg MmuaH
hanpaoz moaam moanm moanm moaum
mfmmjma E: 99.5 Swan. R 3on 0mm.“ 2; Wm mag 03.9w
mm.lmmmﬂ Mdalmﬁmﬂ OP .JN.IMNmH mHmHIOHmH SPQOE

 

.mmcﬁpmmumﬁ and mmoapm Hymn gmmﬁnoaz Mo noﬁpwﬁuwb Hmnommmm mmwum>¢

.mjma Op oamﬂ .muodpom cmpomaom

umZ¢mm namHh I

wa mqm<e

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.mm. cum .mm. .mmmH hﬁdh :H msﬂaaHmmn mpwmm.pmxnmaxwomsaoaH \m
N N N . N N N I.N.U.: mam. H4: 0+: 0N. mm. I
Hm. mm. mm. .Nm. Hm. om. NN. .NN. :N. .mNmH NHsh cH mnHaaHump mnwmh pogpaa mousHqu \w

«2m. cna wmma kHSh :H mGchHmmp mummh pmmnwﬁ wmvdaqu \m

.pnmo mHons pmmnwmn any on vooadon and Umpmsnvw mnw pHcs 9mg mmOHam \H

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

mm.w Hm.H o.COH mn. o.OOH Hi. o.COH NN. o.ooH mmmno>¢
m NN.H w.om Mm. o.mw mm. m.Hm NH. H.mm “anamomn
NH MN.H m.Hm m. mama. mm. odw on. m. N 93382
MH Ho.H N33. mm. H.No R. 9% E. 9mm 3938
m om.H N.mm mm. H.1HH mm. m.HmH mm. H.mHH nogampoom
N $.H m.HNH om.H {SH mm. N.m H :H.H :.mmH 2&3
o ::.H N.NoH Hm. m.mNH Nm. m.NNH mm. N.mHH NHsh
N w:.H :.oHH mN. H.00H mN. o.Nm .mw. N.Hm mash
m ::.H m.HOH HN. H.mm Hm. N.m~ mN. o.Hm Hm:
:H H&.H w.m0H HN. H. m mm. m.mw Np. m.mm HHNQH
NH mN.H m.mo Hm. H.mm mm.l m.mm N. 0.0m Honda
HH HN.H u.:m Hm. w.ww 0:. N. 0 mp. N.mm Hawsnpmm
NH Hm.H c.00H mm. o.mm ox. m.wm NH. mpom Nuwsqmu
pcmoﬂmw manHon unmoumm manHon pcoonm mnmaammw pamonm mnwaﬂmmI pdmonmm
Hmmmsp III. ngwsp memsp Hmamsp II
mm \H 9mm MwosH \m,nmm NouqH \H 9mm NmuuH \M awn NovnH
I cH. moHpm mOHHm moHnm 00Hnm
hwmmmw% .Nﬁimmuo HHwEm .\w;m0ﬂm.mwwpm>< .\mImOno QMMWMI
N:_ImmmH m¢.Iw:mH 0p :N.ImNmH_ mHmHIOHmH gpnoa
mmoHnm Mo uoHpmemb Hmmommmm mmmnm><
I .NHNH Op OHNH .mUOHpoN umpomHmm I
.mwaapmxnwﬁ cam mmoanm shah mwwHQOHﬁ mo coprHnwb chommmw mmwumbd ”mmoa«aom I wHHb qu<s

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.mm. .NM. .mm. .mm. .mm. .mm. .mm. .mm. .jm. .mmmH kHsh dd maﬁaaﬁmmp.mpwmh
.mﬁ. was .H:. .o:. .nmma hHsh :H mchnHmmp mason
.pcmo maonk pmmpwm: 0p Umocson cud umpmsﬁum mum

.mm. cam .zm. .mm. .Hm. .ommH thb GH mchnHmwp.mnmm>

pmxpme mausﬂocu \m
.mm. and
pmxnas mmUdHocH \M
p399" mwosaonH \m
pHcs pom mmOHym \H

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

mm.w NN.HH 0.00H mm.m c.00H um.m c.00H NN.HH o.OOH mumpm><
HH MH.HH N.mm mm.m m.OOH mm.m 0.00H NN.HH o.OOH pmpaoomn
N HH.HH o.mm Hm.m N.Nm mm.w m.#m NN.HH o.mm pmg8m>oz
m mm.HH H.mCH mw.m H.mm mm.w H.Nm NN.HH N.Nm Nopowoo
w Hm .HH SSH WNN WNW m .m WHN 9.3 N. m amnsmpmmm
: .HH N.OOH m.m .m N.w .mm mo.:H H.WN pwswsH
w NI.OH m.Nm N~.m ~.Nm Hw.w. 0.:m m.mH :.-m NHsu
m Nu.HH o.m0H um.m H.00H om.m :.HOH mm. H H.m0H mash
m m:.HH H.NoH :0.0H o.HOH mm.m H.mOH ow.mH N.m0H has
MH mo.HH m.wm No.0H N.OOH ON.OH m.m0H :H.mH m.HOH HHNQH
mH mm.0H o.Hm oo.OH m.ooH MH.0H m.moH mo.mH N.OOH Hogan
NH 0N.HH m.mm NN.OH N.m0H n.0H w.OHH H.mH :.HOH Humsnpmh
HH HH.HH o.mm 0N.OH m.NOH NN.N «.HOH No.mH H.HOH Nnmsnmh

pamwpoﬂ, wpmaaon pnmopmm mnmaaon pzmonmm, mpmHHom paoopm mpmaﬁon pqmonmm

IIuUC+ nQWI cowI mop cop

hwmmme \w “mm KmncH \A 9mm KmoaH \w nmm Mmqu \w pom HmoaH

m:_Im:wH mOHmMI mommm mOHH I, mOHpm
0» Ni momw Haaem I\m popmwmwmpmbd Immjmommimupmm

:m.ummmH m:.IN:mH 0p :N.IMNoH mHmHIonH apnea

 

 

wmaHpmxpms cam mmOHnm mo :oprprb Hanommmm mmwum>4

 

 

.mmanmMpwﬂ cam wmoHnm Egan anHnOHz Mo nowpmHnwb Hmnowwmm mmwnm><

.ijH 0p OHNH .mmOHnm umpooHom

nw<m I wHHH> Hgm<9

136

.03. and .mm. .mm. .jm. .mm. .Nm. .mmmH >H5b nH manchmn mnwmh poxpwa mocdHoaH \I
.m:. was .H:. .mm. .mm. .OM. .mm. .dm. .mmma mHsh zH maHganmp wnwmh pmxyws mausaoau \
.mm. was .ww. .mm. .Hm. .mmma >H5h qH mannHmmn mnwmz pmxuws mwvsHocH \m
.pnoo oHons Hmonmma Op vmnnson was vmpmsnuw mum pHas non mmoHnm \H

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NN.H 0.00H ON.H o.OOH Hp. o.OOH pm. o.OOH omwpo>4
NH.H N.Nm NH.H N.Nm Q. m. m mm. mﬁm nonsmoon
No.H N.mw mo.H H.mm Hm. w. H Hm. N.Nw Nmpsmpoz
mm. N.Hm mm. :.N~ : . w.mm in. N.m~ umpo»oo
mm. H.w~ Nm. w.m~ Hm. N.mm mm. m.ow pmnﬁmpmmm
mo.H :.mm mo.H :.mw Hm. N.mN :N. m.m~ pmsms<
Nm.H H.mHH mm.H H.mNH mm. N.NNH 0H.H N.mHH NHsu
N .H o.mNH m\.H m.me Ho.H N.omH mo.H M. NH mash
mm.H :.mHH mw.H m.0HH mm. N.NNH NH.H m.mHH may
m .H 3.0HH :m.H :.HHH aw. m.m0H .zH.H H.wHH Hanq
wN. NamOH NN.H m.m0H :w. N52 oH.H .HMHH £23..“
HN.H N.mm HN.H N.OOH mm. :.m0H mo.H . 0H Nuwsnpmh
mHH mém wH.H N.mm om. 0.:0H Ho.H NJOH 23an
manHon pamouwﬂI. mpmaanp pmmonoww mnmaaon pnmopm mumaaom, pnmoum
HmsmsmI Hmesp Hmmwsp Hmesn
\A 9mm HmucH \H 9mm umunH \H 9mg wauH \H non NmunH
mOHum moHHm oOHHA moHnm
5H cmmpr HHNEIM \M gab. mmwnmbd Wm mopblmwnm H3203
m:.IN:mH 0p :N.ImNmH mHNHIOHmH

 

 

mmOHpm Mo aoHpmHnwb chommmm mmmum><

 

 

.mUOHpmm vmpoonm .moOHym gawk nmeaOHz Mo noprHHwb Hmaommmm mwmam>«

.ijH op OHmH

"mmAmmd I wNH HQm<B

139

.UmddHQQH p0: OHmH mash 0p huddcwh
.mm. and .mm. .Hm. .om. .mmma mama» mm©5dqu

m

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

.o:. ouw .mm. .Nm. .mm. .mm. .mN. .wN. .NN. .HNNH mama» amusHoaH \m
.NH. cam .HH. .mm. .jm. .mN. .MNmH mama» moosHqu \I
.pqmo mHogB pmmnmm: on Umvndon cum Umpwsmuwas mpw pHcs 9mg mmOHum \N
.pnmo mHonk pwopmmn on Umoqzou Una ompmsnvw mum pHas 9mm mmOHnm \H
mm.w HN.H o.OOH Ho.w c.00H Ho.m c.00H ow.m o.OOH mmmuopH
m mm.m H.:m mH.H ..mm mH.m H.HOH Hm.w m.mw umgeooon
HH mw.~ :.Hm ow.~ .Hm MH.N H.00H HH.N o.mm umnsmpoz
0H Nu.” o.mo mu.w m.mOH mm.m m.m0H mm.m w.H0H popowoo
H NH.N m.mOH Nw.w N.0HH w».OH m.:HH Hm.OH N.NoH panampmmm
m odm {EH NEW NNOH 8.3 :6: 9.3 .mOH $8.3
m NN.N :.mOH mN.m H.moH H:.m m.moH mo.0H .NOH NHsn
m om.N w.ooH MN.~ m.mm om.w H.Hm Nm.m N.HOH mash
m. Nw.n m.mm oo.~ m.wm mm.m m.mm No.0H o.NOH Nag
N mH.m H.:oH HN.H N.Nm om.w H.Nm NH.0H m.m0H HHHNH
m :m.m :.m0H HN.H H.mm Hm.m w.mm mw.m m.ooH Heads
N NH.N m.moH m.~ m.~m NH.w m.om w:.m N.mm Numsnpoh
m HN.H :.HOH m.~ m.mm Nm.~ H.:m NH.m N.mm Nausnmn
pamowwa meHHon pnmonmm mamaaon pnmopmm mnwaaom gnmonm mpmaaon pamopmm
mmmH .pKWII .meII “$30 .980. I
Ipmvﬂmﬁ \M. .Hmm KoHEH \Im. .39 N35 \m Hon 5?: \ﬂ 3% ”893
zﬁnpnoz momww moHﬁw, mOHHm oOHHA
Nimﬂ mm mmoHmeMdHHHwh INﬁ mmOHﬁﬂImHQmpm I\M,mm0Hpm‘mnHmHm
o
MMMH NimH Op MNNH \m mHmHIonH apnea

 

 

 

mmaHpmxuwz and mmOHHm Mo GOprHnwb quomwom mmmum><

 

 

.mjmﬂ Op OHmH .mUOHpmm Umpooamm

.mmchmanﬁ wad mmOHnm shah cmenoHE Mo COHpmHuwb Hmaommmm mmwum>¢ ”meow I dN Hamda

.0:. ﬁnd .mm. .Nm. .mm. .mm. .mm. .mm. .NN.

.umosaocH pom OHmH QQSN ow hnwdamb \m
.Nm. uaw NM. .Hm. .om. .NNNH mummh mocsHocH \m

Hm

ma mama» mmvsHonH

m.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

% .m:. ucﬁ .H:. .mm. .dm. .mm. mH mama» ondHo:H
I. .pcmo mHonB pwmnwma Op cmvndop and @mpmdwvmas mum pHcs nma NNOHnm \m
.pcoo mHoﬂB pmmpmmc ow covason cum Umpmsnuw 0pm pHas “mm mNOHnm \H
mm.N Hm.m 0.00H :N.N o.ooH NN.N enoOH N:.N 0.00H mmwnm>N
N NN.m o.mN NN.N m.~m NN.N :.HOH NN.m N.NN pmpamomn
N N:.m N.HN NN.N m.~m NN.N N.mm oo.N H.No pmggm>oz
m N:.m N.Nm HN.N N.mm NN.N m.NOH mN.N o.Nm pmpoyoo
N :m.m :.mm No.N m.mOH Ho.N N. 0H Hm.N N.Nm Hangmpmmm
N NN.m N.Nm oH.H N.NOH om.N H. OH H .N N.ooH pmsmsN
N Nm.m N.OOH No.N m.m0H NN.N :.m0H NN.N N.MOH NHsN
N NH.N N.N0H NH.N N. 0H N@.N :.m0H NN.N m. OH was»
m. NH.N NEOH B; m. 0H cod H. MOH mo. N m.NOH E
o Nm.N o.NOH mN.N H.00H H~.N N.00H NN.N m.NOH HHNNN
m NN.N m.m0H ON.N m.Nm 0N.N N.Nm MN.N N.NOH Nona:
m :N.N N.m0H Nm.N m.mm. mH.N .N.Hm Hm.N m.wm Numsnpmm
o Nm.N N.BH N36 :3 Hm.m N.NN NH.N N.mm .23an
pﬂmonmm wthHOQ 3.509 mm deHHOQ "2.50.“ m mHmHH OD. #550th meHHOQ "$509 0%
mmsH p30 I .pko .npng I .p30
Ipwxumﬁ \M.Hog MNNQH \M 9mm MovcH \m pmm MoonH \w pmm vaaH
.332on 03.5.. 8an mo Hum mmOHpm
mjma NMWWNOHNW, :Hﬂamm xi mmommﬂImempm.{\mmooHﬁwwchﬂMI
mme NNNHINNNH \N NHNHIOHNH gpsom

 

 

 

mwanoxpwﬁ cam NNOHHA Mo cOprHHm> Hanommmm mmwpo>¢

 

.NNNH mp OHNH .mNOHnoN copomHmm -
.quHpmxpwz was NNOHHA anwh cmaHAOHS Mo noprHnwb Hwnommmm mmwnm><

 

"HABB¢D I wa quda

141

moHpmeapm pmxpmz Hops cum .mpmmm .N00pmmpHH Nam .HNNH ..N.n.m.p

.pmmo mHonB pmmpmm: 0p vmuqson cam cmpmdnom mum pHaﬁ 9mg mmOHpm \M
.Am: cum 3: mmuwmv .jij ..<.2.m ..N.n.N.p .mpmn ompmHom cam

.moprHpmpm HNpsHHSOHNNN

"monsom \w

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

H.N NN.N o.ooH N.H :o.~ o.oog m.~ m:.N o.ooH m.N Nm.m o.oc N.OH NN.HH c.00H me
Ipmbq
o.N Nm.N N.Nm H.N mm.N H.mm N.N NH.N ~.mm N.N NH.N N.Nm m.m NN.HH m.oo¢ .oma
N.N o«.N m.mm N.N om.N m.Nm N.N 0H.N :.mm N.N :N.m N.mm N.0H NN.HH .ooH .poz
N.N om.N H.mm o.N Hm.N .Nm o.~ NN.N N.NN N.N NH.OH H.NoH N.HH NN.HH N.NOH .900
:.N NN.N m.mo m.~ NN.N M.NN m.m m.N N.HoH m.N Nm.0H m.:OH m.N HN.HH N.N0H .enmm
m.~ NN.N :.ooH N.N NN.N .NN N.N Nm.N H.HoH N.N NH.OH :.NoH o.m NN.HH m.mm .N54
.N NN.N o.NoH o.H 0H.N N.OOH m.w MN.N m.NoH N.N No.oH o.HoH H.m Ho.HH m.~m NHsN
mam NH; o.moH TM N»; m. 0H NJ. N.N H.NoH Né MN... H.Nm N5 HN.oH Q? 23.
m.N 0:.N m.NOH :. o~.~ :. oH m.N NN.N m.moH N.N NN.N N.mo 3.0H No.HH o.Nm Nan
H.HH NN.N N.NOH N.N :m.~ H.HOH N.N NN.N m.HoH m.m mm.m H.ooH o.HH H:.HH H.HOH HHNNN
N.HH oo.N m.NoH m.OH ::.N N.mCH m.N Wm.N 0.00 H.m om.m N.mm m.oH HN.HH H.HOH genus
o.OH NN.N _o.No m.N NH.N H.HoHAN.m NN.N o.No N.HH HN.m N.Nm H.mH NN.HH N.00H .nmN
o.N QNHN N.Nm H.N HN.N N.Nm N.N m:.N N.Nm :.HH NN.N N.NN N.NH :m.HH :.00H .qwn
pcoo mpmH pcmo pamo mama pcmo puma mpwH, pcmo pnoo mpma pmmo pnmo mumﬁ pcmo
9mm IHon, Ipmm Inmm. IHon Ipwmw Inwmw IHOQ Iﬁwm, IFNWI IHon Ipmn IHmMII IHon Iumm
mep:1.pgo Nmu pHpm .Pso Mme mpHpm .pgo Mme thp .pao Moo thn .pko Nov
4H8, \wpmn IGH Jammy \meg In“ IHHHmmu \wymg InH IHHewm \Imaoq. IQH Asmm \mnmm IHHH
4: Mo 03.5 I: we 003m I: .HQ 003% IHH .H 83$ IE“ 9 moHpm
memh NmuaH xquH Hmwa Haws
. Npaoz
wsoo coca cogeoo achmz @000 mEHpm cam
moHono
\m .NHNH on mmmH .oNNOHno .NHHanuNmpNH No xmcaH was mmcmnm

ompomamm pom wme mmoHpm exp GH noHpmewb meommom mmmno><

"mmmmam hmmm I QHM mqm¢9

.umusaoaH pom Gama mash o» hnwsqwh \I

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2
my .Nm. can .Nm. .Hm. .om. .NNNH mama» mousHoaH \I
.o:. can .mm. .Nm. .Nm. ”mm. .mN. .NN. .NN. .NNmH NNNNN mmNSHqu \w
.N:. can H:. .mm. .Nm. .NN. .NNNH mummN mmNsHonH \I
.pamo oHonk pmmudmg 0p Uqusou and cmpmsﬁuwnn mud pHnd 9mm mmOHum \m
.paoo macs: pmmnmmn on cmvnson cum cmpmdncw was qu5 9mm NNOHHA \H
mm.N m:.m o.OOH HN.OH o.OOH HN.0H o.OOH mm.m c.00H mmwnmpN
N 0N.N m.mm NN.0H m.ooH NN.0H N.NoH NN.N N.NN pogsmoon
N NN.N Ném :NdH m. HOH NN.HH m. 0H NH. m ”.mm 30.5302
N Nm.m o.HOH om.HH N.NOH NH.HH 0. 0H NN.N .NOH “asepoo
N Nm.m .HOH NH.HH :.m0H No.HH m.NOH NN.N m.m0H panampaom
N No.m .mm om.0H o.mm NN.OH N.OOH NN.N N.OOH pmstN
m NN.N N.mm Ho.0H .m.:m NN.N N.mm mN.m N.mm NHsN
0H 0N.N m.Nm NN.N .Nm om.m H.Hm oo.m m.Nm mash
0H NN.N N.Hm :N.N N.mm Nw.m N.Nm 0N.N N.mm Nan
0H Nm.m o.NOH NN.0H m.Nm H .m H.mm NN.m H.mm HHnaN
m 0N.0H N.NOH NN.0H N.00H Hm.OH o.HOH Mm.m muNOH Noam:
N om.oH .NHH _:H.HH H.m0H~ Hm.0H o.HoH .m N.HOH Nawsupoh
m NN.0H :NHH NN.0H m.m0H 0N.m 0.3 N .m m.NOH ragga.
Pﬁmonodmiw madam—“on “Eamon mh wpwHHon “£009 m1“- deHE vﬂmon 0W. wHwHHOQ Ramon m
mm: _hpmml4 .hpso .hpso .hpso
IpmMpw. \m 9mm chnH \m 9mm KmoaH \m 9mg HmunH \H «mm HmvnH
: mOHnﬂi monWII moHnm 00Hnm
Naanoz m.mmOHmmm:HHHwh I\:,mm0HmnImemmm1. m,mm0Hn anwmﬁm
cmeNMH ijH op NNmH \N mHmHIOHmH apnea
quapoxnwz and NNOHnm mo GOHpmHnwb Hwnomwmm mmmnm>4
.NNNH op OHNH .mNoHamm empomHoN
.mmanmxnmﬁ and mmoHnm anwh nmeQOHS mo GOprHuwb Hmnomwmm mmwno>< ”mm>A<o A¢m> I wHHM mamqe

.UmusaomH pom OHmH mash 0p hnwdth \l

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2
my . . .Nm. New .NN. .Hm. .om. .NNmH NNNNN mmNsHoaH \I
.o:. Nam mm. NM. .mm. .mm. .mm. .mm. .Nm. .jmma mpwmm mmNdHoaH \
.Nj. cam .Hx. .Nm. .jm. .NN. .mNmH NNNNN moNsHoaH \m
.pamo oHons pwmnwo: 0p omcqsop cum cmpmdwcwqd mud pdns 9mm NNOHpm \m
.pnmo mHonB pmmummc on vmcnson cum cmpwsncm mum qu5 non NNOHpm \H
NN.N m:.N c.00H HN.0H 0.00H HN.OH o.OOH NN.N 0.00H mNNnm><
N ON.N m.mm NN.OH m.ooH NN.0H N.N0H NN.N N.NN 93588
N NN.N. Nim :N.oH N.HOH NNdH m. 0H NH.N NNN $0.352
N NN.N o.HOH om.HH N.NOH NH.HH 0. 0H NN.N .NOH nopepoo
N NN.N .HOH NH.HH :.NOH No.HH N.NoH NN.N N.NOH ampsmpgmm
N No.m .Nm cm.oH o.mm NN.0H N.OOH NN.N u.OOH pmstN
m NN.N N.mm Ho.0H N.:N NN.N N.Nm NN.N N.NN NHsN
oH 0N.N N.Nm NN.N .NN om.m H.Hm oo.m N.Nm wash
0H NN.N :.HN NN.N N.mm NN.N N.Nm 0N.N N.mm Nam
0H NN.N o.N0H NN.0H m.Nm H .m H.mm NN.o H.Nm HHHQN
m 0N.0H N.NOH NN.OH N.OOH HN.OH o.HOH NN.N N.NoH mega:
N oN.OH m.NHH .NH.HH H.NOH Hm.0H o.HOH .m N.HOH prsupmh
m _ NN.OH .NHH NN.OH m.m0H ON.N o.mm N .N N.NOH Npmsawh
pdmonm. manHon pnmopmw mpwaaon pcooﬂmm manHon ammonmm mumHHon pamoumm
mmqa “.ch hfso Ugo “.930
I -pm. \m sea NmumH \m nmn NownH \m 9mm _ HNNGH \H yam MchH
pox : NUHHA NQHnm NOHnm NOHnm
Nanaom m NNOHwnmcHHHmmw _#,NmmMuwImewpm1 mm,quNHn maHmﬁﬂ
OPNMMWH m ijH 0» NNNH \N NHNHIOHNH Npaoa
mmanmxnwﬁ Nam NNOHnm mo nOHpmHnwb Hmaomwmm mmmnm><

 

 

.szH 0p OHNH .NNOHHNN cmpooHoN

.mmmemxpmm Nam mmOHpm anwh ummHgon mo nOprHnwb HNaomwmm mmwuo>< ”mm>4¢o A¢H> I wHHM mam¢9

.wm. 6H8 mm.
40:. and mm. .Nm. .mm. .mm. .mm.

.HN. .om_ .NNNH NNNNN moNsHocH \m
.NN. .NN. .NNNH mnme moNsHocH \w

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3
m“ .N:. Nam .Hz. .NN. .NN. .NN. .NNNH NNNNN NmNsHosH \m
.paoo oHoaB pwmpwmz 0:» 0p UquSOH can umpmdncwn: mud pans awn NNOHnm \m
.pcmo mHonk pmonwma mgp Op NNNQSOH New Nmpmsnvw mad qu5 “ma mmoHnm \H
NN.N NN.H o.OOH NN.H o.OOH 0H.N o.OOH NN.H 0.00H NNNHN>N
N HN.H N.NN NH.N N.NOH NN.N N.HHH om.N N.NHH umaamomn
N NN.H :.NN NH.N N.NOH HN.N o.OHH NN.N H.NHH Nopem>oz
N N.H H.HOH No.N N.NOH NN.N N.NOH NH.N N.NOH 3938
N NN.H N.HOH No.N N.NOH NH.N N.NOH NN.H N.OOH ngammeN
N NN.H N.NN NN.H N.NN HH.N N63 NN.H N.NN p334
0H NN.H H.NN NN.H N.NN NN.H o.mN NN.H :. N NHsN
HH oN.H N.NN NN.H M.ON NN.H N.HN NN.H H.NN mash
0H NN.H .NN NN.H ..NN :N.H N.NN NN.H N.NN Nwm
N NN.H N.OOH HN.H N.NN wo.N N.NN NN.H N.NN HHHNN
N NN...H o.:oH NN.H N.NN No.N N.NN No.N H.NOH 33%
N NN.H N.NOH No.N N.NOH No.N N.NN NN.N N. HH Nnmsupmh
N :m.H w.OHH mo.m N.mOH No.m N.Nm Nm.m N. HH Nnmsmmh
pamonmm mpwHHom unmoumm mywaamm pcmopwﬂ. mnmaaon pnmopm muwaaom. pamopmw
so: “.95 his .. hﬁo - his
Iosvoum \m .Hmm. NmNcH \m .39 ”mag \N .39 ”89:“ \H 9.3 H35
ooﬂnm, ooHum 00Hnm NOHHA
NHMpMmm Wm wmoHWMWMdHH mm # NNOHnm,mHQNp .meNOHmnmaHmH
op MNNH NHNHIOHNH gpqo:

 

NjNH 0p NNNH

 

 

mwanmxumﬁ and mmoHam mo COHpmHnmb Hanommmm mmmnm>¢

 

and NNOHpm spam cwwHQOHz we noprHnwb chommmm mmmnmpd

.NNNH 0p OHNH .muoHnmm NmpomHoN WmNaHpmNpNz

 

”NHH: NNNNmHomN I NHHHM NNmNe

.pmppsn Nnmammpo Mo chHpspowwchE NHQPQQH \M

.% .mm. UGa mm. .Hm. .Om.
1. .Cd. cam .mm. .Nm. .mm. .mm. .mm. .mm. .Nm.
.Nd. Nam H:. .N . .NN. .NN.

.mmma mama» mmvsﬂonH \m
. mmH mummh mmusaomH \
. mma mpmmh movdHosH \m

.pcmo oaogs_pmmnmm: 0p oouqsop Una Uopmsncmzs mum pHc: 9mm NNOHHA \m
.pcmo mHogs pmmpmmn on chqsop New Nmpmshcm mum pHns 9mg mmoHnm \H

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NN.N NN o.OOH NN o.QOH NN 0.00H NN 0.00H NNNNNNN
N NN :. 0H NN N.NoH N: N.NHH NN N.NHH pmgemomn
N NN H. OH NN N.NOH H H.HHH N N.NOH pmpsmpoz
N NN H.NoH NN N.HOH N N.NoH N N.NOH NNQOPOO
N Nm N.NN NN N.NN NN N.OOH HN N.NN nonsmppmm
N or o.NN NN N.NN NN N.NN NN N.HN pmstN
0H NN N.0N NN N.NN 3m N.NN NN N.NN NHsN
NH NN N.NN mN .NN My N.NN NN N.NN mash
dH Hm N.NN m H.NN N N.NN oN N.NN NNN
N N» c.00H NV H.NN NN o.NN NN N.NN HHNQN
N NN H.NOH Nm N.HOH NN N.NN NN o.HOH Nunez
N NN N.NOH NV N.NOH NN N.NN N N.NoH Numsnpmh
N NN N.NHH NN N.NoH NN N.NN N N.OHH twang
amonmm mpcmo pnmonmm mpnmo pcmopm mpqmo pcmogmm magma pnmoumm

qunuza Nascg. nanom, A, ucsom, canon [I

IowmsnSH \M pom “SUCH \M .Hmou MmuaH \M pom xmczH \m you No.05“

NE? NH moﬂm NOHWNH. moHum 03.5

.I _MNm.mm0Hn& MQHHHNhrN: moow.m,mwmmmm1I\m.mmownm,waHmHm
\N NJNH
o» NNNmI NNNH 0p NNNH NHNHIOHNH Npaos

 

mmcHn5pommsHaz cam mmoHpm mo aoprHnwb Hanowmmm mmwnm><

 

 

.NzNH Np OHNH .NNoHpmm NopomHmN ;
.mwansPowmsnwa cam mooHnm Epmh waHnoHu Mo coHpmemb chomwmm omwnm><

h

"mMeeDm I wbHH mgm¢a

145

.mm. cam .NM. Nam.

.03. cam .mm. .Nm. .mm. .mm. .mm. ”mm. .Nm. .
.mj. cud .H:. .mm. :m. .mm. mmH mnwmh mmUdHomH \N
.pcmo aﬂoat pmmpmmc 0p Umwcson Nam umpmshowcd mum pHcﬁ 9mm NNOHpm \H

.om. .NmmH mum?» mmHodHocH \W

. mma NHNNN mmNsHocH \

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NNNH op NNNH

NNOHHA mo coHpmHnmb Hmcomwmm omwnm>4

 

0N o.OOH NN o.OOH NN 0.00H oNNpopN
NN N.NOH NN o.NOH N: NeNHH poosooon
HN N.NOH NN N.NOH d. N.HHH popsopoz
NN N.NOH NN N.HCH N o.NOH popomoo
HN N.ooH ,NN N.NN NN N.HOH poNEopooN
NN N.NN NN N.NN NN N.NN posNoN
NN N.NN NN N.NN :N oNN NHE.
NN N.NN :N o.NN :N N.HN mash
NN N.NN :N H.NN NN N.NN Nag
0N H.NOH Nm N.NN NN m.NN HHpNN
HN .NOH NN .N.NOH NN N.NN Nona:
mm .moa mm m.:OH mm m.Nm andppmh
:m m.HHH om N.NOH mm N.mm prdcwh
.LHmpdoo pGNONNMII mpcmo pcmonmm mpmmo psoopmm
Nazca canon Nqsom III
\A pmq xmucH \A_pmg chcH \ﬂ pan NovaH
moHnm, moHnm NOHH
m m . . m H
INN ooHpN NHHHNN Nw oo.pm oHpmpN \Nmooppw NnHmHm Npaou

 

I .NNNH op NNNH .oooppom oopooHoN
.NmoHpm Spmh QNNHQOHz mo QOprHpm> meonmm wwwnmbq

"Edhmmeebm I wbk mqm¢a

146

.umcsaonH p0: OHmH aqua 0p Nnmsgwh \M

 

 

 

.mnENH and macaw npop mo quHpoxnwa Nngnoz \I.
.NN. on» .NN. .HN. .oN. .NNNH opmoN NoosHoaH \I
.o:. oaw .NN. .NN. .NN. ”NN. .NN. .NN. .NN. .NNNH opooN moooHonH NW
.N:. Ncw H3. .NN. .NN. .NN. .NNNH opwoN mocoHoaH \
.pcoo maonk pmonmmn 0» vacancy and copmshownd and pans 9mm NNOHnm \m
.paoo oHogs pmmpmmn.0p vacancy cam oopmsnvw ops pHns non mNOHnm.\H
_
NN.N NN.N o.o0H NN.N 0.00H NN.N o.ooH NN.N o.ooH oNNpopN
HH NN.N N.NN NN.N H.NN N.N; N.ooH NN.N 98 89238
NH H.N N.NN NH.N N.HN NN.N H.NN NN.N N.NN popaopoz
NH N.N N.NN NN.N H.NN oN.: N.NOH NN.N o.NN popopoo
N +3.N NdN NN.N N.NN HN.N o.NN NN.N o.NN 39538
N NN.N N.NN N .: N.NN H p: N.NN NN.N c.00H pmoNoN
N N .N N.NN N .: N.NN NN.N o.NN NN.N N.ooH NHoN
N HN.N N.NoH NN.N N.ooH Nww: N.NN NH.N N.NOH oaou
N NH.N N.NOH NN.N N.NoH o «m N.HOH NN.N N.NOH No2
N NN.N N.NHH No.N N.OHH No. N.NOH NN.N N.NHH HHHNN
N HN.N N.NHH NN.N .NOH HH.N H.oHH NN.N N.NOH gopos
0H N .: N.NHH NN.N .NoH oo.N N.NOH No.N N.HOH Nposppoh
NH NN.N N.NHH NN.N :.00H NN.N N.NN NN.N N.NN Npmsnmw
pnoono mpwHHon pnoonm mpwﬂaon pnoopm manHon pcoonmn manHon pmoonm
.IJmeﬂn .meII .pamlu In. .930 .930 In
Ipmxpwz \M pom NounH \M peg NounH \m.umn ”Nana \w pom HounH
Nanpnos NOHQm; oowhm, NOHnm
\@ ma #.wooaum mammpm mm mmoHnnpmemH
op MWNH NNNHINNNH \M NHNHIOHNH spNoz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

mmanvgumz and mmoupm mo :OprHndb Hanowwmm owmnm>«

 

 

.NNNH op oHNH .oooHpom oopooHoN
.mmchoxnmz cam NNOHpm gawk cwwanoHﬁ mo noprHuwb meomwmm mNNuopN

”mmﬁmm I thx mnm<a

.umusaonﬁ pom 03H NHBN. 0p NH.N:HHNN. N.N.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

mwchmﬁNﬁ and 33.5 no 5329.; H9833 $325

 

.wn 60.8.3 and 393 Apop .Ho mmcdpoxnwe N.Hpcoﬁ \I
1. I .NN. ogw .NN. .HN. .oN. .NNNH opNoN moosHonH NW
40:. one .mw. .Nm. .mm. .mm. .mm. .mw. .NN. . NmH muwmh mmﬂdﬁoaH \W
.N:. Nam .HN. .NN. .Nw. .NN. . NNH mpmoN moosHonH NI
.pnmo Naomi pmmpwmn 0p Homuadou. and umpmdnuwns N.HN p25 .39 mmoﬁnm N.N
.meo 39:» pmmnwm: 0p c3569 98 603536 95 N.HHH: nag mmoﬂm NH
NN.N NH.N 0.00H No.0H o.o0H NN.oH 0.00H 0N.N o.OOH oNNpopq
HH NH.N N.NN HN.N N.NN NN.OH o.NOH NN.N HNNN ponaooon
NH NN.N N.NN NN.N N.NN NN.cH o.OOH NN.N N.oN popaopoz
NH HN.N N.NN NN.N N. N NH.0H N.NN NN.N ”.NN nonopoo
N NN.N N.NN NN.N N.NN N .OH N.ooH NN.N .NN popsopmom
: NN.N o.NN N.N N.NN o .N N.NN N .N H.NN pmoNoN
N NN.N N.NOH - H .OH N.HoH NH.oH N.NN 0N.N H.HOH NHsN
N NN.N N.NOH N .OH N,moH NN.0H N.HOH NH.N HijH mash
N oN.N N.HoH Na.oH :. oH NN.N N.NN HN.N N. oH NNN
N NN.N N.NOH NN.oH N.NOH NN.N N.NN HN.N N. 0H HHNNN
N 0N.N N.NoH HN.OH N.NOH NN.oH N.NOH N.N N.NOH genus
0H NN.N H.NOH NH.0H N.ooH ‘ 03.0H N.HOH NN.N o.NOH Nuooppon
NH oH.N N.HHH NN.N N.NN No.oH o.NN NN.N N.ooH Npaonou
PGOOHOW wHwHE meOPWﬂI wHwHHOQ anonlmup mthHOQ HGGOHQP meHE FQOOHGW
gag .ﬁpo hpko .Eso . .....tpo
ngnoﬁ NM 93 “Bog Nm .Hmn HmNnH NM .39 H005 N.N pen H35
N.N. NOHnm . 003m 003m moan..."
NNNH op NN mooHpNdeHHH INw,mooHpn,oHprm Nm mooHmeNnHmH
NNNH NNNH op NNNH NM NHNHIOHNH apsom

 

.NNNH op OHNH .oooppom.oopooHoN I
.mmchoMpSN HEN mooﬂm Sash gmHnoE no nodeHuwb Hwaowwmm omwnmz.

"mmqu I .3“be Hamﬁu

.mm. 9.3 .Nm. .Hm. .om.

.vmosaona pod oama mnSh Op hnwsgwh \M

.mmma made» mmosHoGH \

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

m .9: 28 .mm. .R. .mm. .mm. .mm. .mm. .5. comma goo.» mooﬁoﬁ \m
.m:. ooo .do. .mm. .om. .mm. .mmma onooh moooaooH >1
.pnmo mHonB pmmumon on vmoqbon vaa umpmdﬁvwzs and pans pom mmownm \N
.pmmo mHonB pmmnwon on UmUQSOn Una umpmancw and pans pom mmoapm \H
v
mm.w Hm o.ooH mm o.ooa mm o.ooH on p.00H omouo><
N am m.mm mm m.NoH mm m.aoa Mm o.mm nogeooon
m a .3 mm ﬁmoa mm o.HS m o.HoH popaopoz
N am m.~m Mm H.:oa m m.om Mm H.ooa popoooo
m Hm m.mm m H.NoH mm m.om m .Hoa nooaopnom
m om ~.:m mm m.mm mm o.mm mm .NOH pmowo<
Hm om m.am mm m.ooa mm m.ooa or H.moH hash
do. ma Qmw mm m.mm mm. mag mm m.moa 33.
am ma 0.0m mm H.wm mm :.wm :m m.mm has
Hm om m.mm Hm H.Nm mm o.mm :m H.wm aﬁua<
u mm m.moa an m. m or o.Hoa :m o.Nm nonoz
1 mm m.omH Hm m.mm mm o.mm on o.mm oposnpoa
a wm Nyomﬂ mm m.mm mm o.mm :m o.ooa homomoo
unmoumn. mpdmo pcmoymm mvmmm‘ Pamopm mpnmw, pnmonm mpnmo pcoonmmu
m ma.“ NS; om wgom Wnsog baud
IpmMpm: \m non HmuqH \m pom NmUnH \m nmm Mman \H non chnH
moan moan ooanp moanm
kHWPMMHA mmOHnmlwnaHHmmv woommwmapmpm rmwﬂmmoammumcwmdmﬁ
op Mmma mjmﬁ op mmma \w. mamﬁuoama opoom
mwaapmxnwm cad moOﬁpm no soapmﬁnwb Hmnommom mmmno>«

 

 

.moma op oama .oooﬁuom oopooﬂom

.mwnapmxumm umw mmoanm Shah nwmanoﬁﬁ Ho nodpwﬁuwb Hanomwmm mwmnob¢ ”A00: 1 mHHbe mam¢a

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

o, .NHQNHHmpw pod NNNH 90M mwanoMNNE Nanpco: \I
MN .NN. New .NN. .HN. .oN. .NNNH mpNoN NousHoaH NW
.o:_ Nam .NN. .NN. .NN. .NN. .NN. .NN. .NN. . NNH mpNoN woNsHooH \m
.N:. New H3. .NN. .NN. .NN. . NNH NpNoN moNsHooH \I
.pzmo mHogB_pmmnNmn 0» vacancy was umpmdnuwcd Nam pHcs 9mg wmoHum \m
.pmmo oHONB pmonwmc 0p NNNQSON Nam umpmsnvm mad an5 9mg NNOHum \H
NN.N NH o.QOH NH o.NoH NH o.OOH NH o.ooH oNNnopN
HH NH N.NN NH N.NN NH N.NN NH N.NN 39338
NH NH N.NN NH N.wN NH H.NN NH N.NN pogsopoz
NH NH N.HN NH H. N NH o.OOH NH N.NN popopoo
NH NH H.NN NH N.HoH NH N.NoH NH 9mg popaopNoN
NH NH NuNOH NH HxOOH NH o.HOH NH Nu 0H NNNNNN
HH NH N.NOH NH N.OOH NH N.NOH NH 1. OH NHNN
N NH N.NOH NH H.HOH NH N.NOH NH N. 0H oqu
N NH N.NOH NH N.NOH NH o.NOH NH H.NOH NNN
N NH o.NHH NH N.NOH NH N.NoH NH N.NOH HHNNN
N NH N.NoH NH N.NOH NH N.NOH NH o.NOH momma
N NH N.NOH NH N.NN NH N.NN H N.NN Npmsppom
N NH H.NOH NH o.NN NH H.NN H N.NN E33.
pnmopmm mpqoo pamommw. mcho pcmonmml anwb pnmouwm. Npcmo pcmonwnu
mwaH ummmw, WQSOC Wﬂsgw, mhsomw
- L \M 9mg HmNgH \m 90m NNNQH \m pom HoouH \H 9mg chnn
tpwxpmw moHum moHnm mowumr moHnm
hmnpcoz um.mmoHpm wuHHHNh.N# NNOHNA maampm “NN.NNOHHNJNGHNHM
\N N NH .1 a» sn .
op N NH NNNHINNNH NHNH n NHNH Npaow

 

 

 

anHpmMpmz and NNOHpm mo noprHywb Hwaommom mmmuo><

.NNNH op OHNH .mNoHpoN NopooHoN

.NmaHpmxme Nam mmoHnm each chHNOHE mo coHpNHnwb stommmw mmNnm><

 

"mzmMOHmu I wMHH Hgmda

.NN. Nam .NN.

.HN. .oN. .NNNH NpNoN woNsHosH \m

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

O . \
my .03. Nam .NN. .NN. .NN. .NN. .NN. .NN. .NN. .NNNH mmeN moNsHonH N.
.N:. 28 .HN. .NN. .NN. .NN. .NNNH mpNoN moNoHogH NW
.38 N.NoH; pmmpwmc 0p @2350» and umpmsﬂomss N.HN 399 .39 $0.75 \N
.pHHmo maoﬁp pmmnwmd 09 vacancy and Umpmsmww N.HN pHHHs .HNQ mmoanm \H
NN.N :N c.00H NN o.OOH NN c.00H NN o.OOH ommumpN
N NN N.NNH NN N.NNH mm N.NNH NN N.HNH nonsmoon
m N N.HNH NN N.NNH ow N.HNH :N .HNH pogsopoz
N N.ONH HN N.NNH NN N.NHH oN .NOH pmpopoo
N :N N.NOH NN H.NoH NN N.NoH NN N.NN pogsopNoN
N HN N.NN NN N.NN NN N.NN NN N.NN pmdeN
N 0N o.NN HN N.NN :N N.NN NN o.NN NHoN
HH NH. o.NN NH N.NN NN H.NN NN H.HN mash
NH NH H.NN NH o.NN NN N.NN NN N.HN NNN
NH NH N.NN NH o.NN HN N.NN NN N.NN HHHNN
HH 0N o.NN HN N.0N NN N.NN NN N.NN Nopma
N NN H.NN NN .HoH NN N.NN NW H.NHH 393$
N NN N.NNH NN .NHH om N.NoH NN N.NNH proowh
PﬁQOHmm m pﬂmo PQQOH mm m PQmO ”Lumen mm m Pﬂmo pCmOhm PCOO pﬁmonmm
no: mmwoc mouoc WmNoHo medu
12695 \N non HNNGH \N .39 HNNQH \m .Hma. NNHEH \H NNNH mecH
kn ._ moapmw 00H..." 00E QOHHHH
HNpMmN LNm‘mooHpN.NoHHHNNuNN,moop N oHpmpN .NN,NoonnruquHN Npoom
op NNH . NNNH op NNNH NHNH u NHNH
coHpodnopm New NNOHHA mo GOHPNHHNP accommmm owwnmb¢
.NNNH op NHNH .wNoHpoN NopoNHoN .
.aoHpoocopN Nam mooppm gpNN cmNNNoHN No coNprpmp HNcoNNNN oNNpopN ”NNNN u NNN NNNNN

‘\ $7..

 

 

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