ADOPTION OF PRODUCTIVITY-ENHANCING INPUTS AND IMPROVED FARM PRACTICES IN CAMBODIA’S RICE PRODUCTION By Socheat Keo A DISSERTATION Submitted to Michigan State University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Community, Agriculture, Recreation and Resource Studies – Doctor of Philosophy 2018 ABSTRACT ADOPTION OF PRODUCTIVITY-ENHANCING INPUTS AND IMPROVED FARM PRACTICES IN CAMBODIA’S RICE PRODUCTION By Socheat Keo Agricultural intensification, particularly, the adoption of improved farm technologies has been considered by the government of Cambodia as a driving force for agricultural development, which will contribute to improving living standards, particularly in rural areas. Meanwhile, little research has empirically analyzed the factors that influence farmers’ decisions to adopt improved farm technologies. Hence, this dissertation aims at adding to this literature and contributing to Cambodia’s agricultural development policies through three empirical studies with a focus on the rice production – the dominant sector of Cambodia’s agriculture. The first paper of this dissertation investigates the impact of formal and semi-formal land titles on the adoption of chemical fertilizer and manure in Cambodia’s paddy production using pooled cross-sectional data of the Cambodia Socio-Economic Survey (CSES) from 2009 to 2014. Propensity Score Matching (PSM) and regressions on the matched samples were used to estimate the effects for each type of land title, controlling for village heterogeneity. The empirical findings show that both formal and semi-formal land titling significantly increases the average adoption rates of chemical fertilizer and manure, but the impact of formal land titling on manure adoption is higher than that of semi-formal titling. However, the empirical evidence shows that land titling does not significantly increase fertilizer expenditure and productivity. In general, this study suggests that formal and semi-formal land titling are equally conducive to fertilizer use and productivity improvement. The second paper addresses two key issues: first, it examines whether farmers’ decisions to adopt improved rice varieties and chemical fertilizer are interrelated (interdependent); second, it analyzes the determinants of the improved farm technology adoption. The quantitative data is based on the HARVEST (Helping Address Rural Vulnerabilities and Ecosystem Stability) household panel survey (2012-2016) in four provinces of Cambodia, while the qualitative data was collected from 25 semi-structured interviews with some of the surveyed households. The study applies a bivariate probit model to test for the interdependence of technology adoption, and the correlated random effects (CRE) framework to detect the determinants of adoption. The results indicate that adoption of an improved rice variety and chemical fertilizer at the plot level are complementary. The empirical results further suggest that irrigation, social learning in the form of information from neighbors, age of household head, secondary education, TV ownership (as a means of accessing the media), and remittances are positively associated with the adoption of improved farm technologies. The third paper follows up on the second one by further examining the role of credit in the adoption of the interrelated inputs. Propensity Score Matching (PSM) and regressions on the matched samples were applied to examine the linkage between agricultural credit and the adoption of the interrelated inputs. This study relies on a cross-sectional survey from the Census of Agriculture of Cambodia (CAC), 2013. The results suggest that credit for agricultural activities increases the probability of adoption of high-yield rice variety, fertilizer, pesticide (or herbicide/fungicide) and the combination of the three types of modern input. The effect of credit on adoption of pesticides is the most robust, particularly when farm households contract loans from both formal and informal sources. Our empirical finding suggests that affordable credit for farm activities increases adoption of modern inputs in rice production. Copyright by SOCHEAT KEO 2018 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Doing this PhD, particularly writing this dissertation has been a long and demanding process. Therefore, I would like to take this opportunity to extend my gratitude to the people and institutions that have contributed to my work. First of all, my most profound and sincere thanks are extended to my advisor, Dr. John Kerr, for his tremendous support and continuing technical guidance. Without his contributions and guidance throughout my PhD program, I would not be able to achieve the goal in my studies in the United States. Additionally, I appreciate his kind understanding and his patience to supervise me. He is the most inspiring and helpful advisor in my academic life. My profuse thanks are also due to the other members of my PhD guidance committee: Dr. Robert Richardson, Dr. Mywish Maredia and Dr. Kimberly Chung. Their support and ideas have also helped me navigate my PhD. research process. In addition, I wish to thank my local mentor, Dr. Kimsun Tong, for his technical supports during my dissertation writing. Above all else, I am indebted to the U.S government for financially supporting my PhD program which is based upon work supported by the United States Agency for International Development, as part of the Feed the Future initiative, under the CGIAR Fund, award number BFS-G-11-00002, and the predecessor fund the Food Security and Crisis Mitigation II grant, award number EEM-G-00-04-00013. I am also grateful to the staff and the management team of the Borlaug Higher Education for Agricultural Research Development (BHEARD) program for their assistance. Additionally, my sincere thanks go to the faculty and staff of the Department of Community Sustainability, College of Agriculture of the Michigan State University for their support in facilitating my study. v Thanks go also to the management team of Cambodia Development Resource Institute (CDRI) for providing me with a decent office space to write my dissertation in Cambodia. Finally, my heartfelt thanks also go to my family, parents and friends for spiritual support and understanding, without which pursuing this PhD would be even more challenging. vi TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES ......................................................................................................................... ix LIST OF FIGURES ....................................................................................................................... xi CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................... 1 REFERENCES ............................................................................................................................... 6 CHAPTER 2: IMPACT OF LAND TITLING ON THE ADOPTION OF PRODUCTIVITY- ENHANCING INPUTS IN CAMBODIA’S RICE PRODUCTION ........................ 8 2.1. Introduction .............................................................................................................................. 8 2.2. Literature review .................................................................................................................... 11 2.2.1. Administrative capacity of land institutions ............................................................... 14 2.2.2. Socio-economic context .............................................................................................. 14 2.3. An overview of the country context ....................................................................................... 15 2.3.1. Land title in Cambodia ................................................................................................ 15 2.3.1.1. Formal land registration (land title issued by the government) ........................... 16 2.3.1.2. Semi-formal land registration (land title issued by the local authority) .............. 18 2.3.2. Cambodia’s rice sector ................................................................................................ 19 2.4. Conceptual framework and empirical methodology .............................................................. 21 2.4.1. Conceptual framework ................................................................................................ 21 2.4.2. Empirical methodology ............................................................................................... 23 2.4.2.1. Steps in propensity score matching ...................................................................... 25 2.4.2.2. Assumptions and limitations of PSM .................................................................. 27 2.4.2.3. Regressions on the matched samples ................................................................... 28 2.5. Data and descriptive statistics ................................................................................................ 29 2.5.1. Background on the Cambodia Socio-Economic Survey (CSES) ............................... 29 2.5.2. Definitions and summary of outcome variables and covariate ................................... 31 2.6. Empirical results and discussions .......................................................................................... 33 2.6.1. Getting the matched samples ...................................................................................... 33 2.6.2. Regressions on the matched samples .......................................................................... 36 2.7. Conclusion and policy implications ....................................................................................... 41 APPENDICES .............................................................................................................................. 44 Appendix A: Extra tables and figures for the empirical analysis ............................................. 45 Appendix B: Choosing the matching technique or algorithm .................................................. 67 REFERENCES ............................................................................................................................. 69 CHAPTER 3: ADOPTION OF INTERRELATED FARM TECHNOLOGIES IN CAMBODIA: THE CASE OF IMPROVED RICE VARIETIES ................................................... 75 3.1. Introduction ............................................................................................................................ 75 3.2. Literature review .................................................................................................................... 77 3.3. Conceptual framework ........................................................................................................... 79 3.4. Empirical methodology .......................................................................................................... 82 vii 3.4.1. Multivariate probit model ........................................................................................... 82 3.4.2. Correlated random effects (CRE) model .................................................................... 84 3.4.3. Qualitative fieldwork .................................................................................................. 86 3.5. Data and descriptive statistics ................................................................................................ 87 3.6. Empirical results .................................................................................................................... 93 3.7. Conclusions and policy implications ................................................................................... 101 REFERENCES ........................................................................................................................... 104 CHAPTER 4: THE LINKAGE BETWEEN AGRICULTURAL CREDIT AND ADOPTION OF INTERRELATED MODERN INPUTS IN CAMBODIA’S RICE PRODUCTION ...................................................................................................... 109 4.1. Introduction .......................................................................................................................... 109 4.2. Literature review .................................................................................................................. 112 4.3. Country context .................................................................................................................... 113 4.3.1. Cambodia’s agriculture ............................................................................................. 113 4.3.2. Cambodia’s rural credit ............................................................................................. 115 4.4. Conceptual framework and empirical methodology ............................................................ 117 4.4.1. Conceptual framework .............................................................................................. 117 4.4.1.1. Adoption of interrelated inputs .......................................................................... 117 4.4.1.2. Use of credit in agricultural activities ................................................................ 118 4.4.2. Empirical methodology ............................................................................................. 119 4.4.2.1. Simultaneous adoption ....................................................................................... 119 4.4.2.2. Propensity Score Matching (PSM) .................................................................... 120 4.4.2.3. Regressions on the matched samples ................................................................. 122 4.5. Data and descriptive statistics .............................................................................................. 123 4.5.1. Background on Census of Agriculture of Cambodia (CAC) 2013 ........................... 123 4.5.2. Definitions and summary of outcome variables and covariates ............................... 125 4.6. Empirical results .................................................................................................................. 126 4.6.1. Simultaneous adoption of the modern inputs ............................................................ 126 4.6.2. Getting the matched samples .................................................................................... 127 4.6.3. Regressions on the matched samples ........................................................................ 130 4.7. Conclusions .......................................................................................................................... 136 APPENDIX ................................................................................................................................. 139 REFERENCES ........................................................................................................................... 164 viii LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Number of plots, households and villages by year ......................................................... 31 Table 2: Number of plots by type of land title and year ............................................................... 31 Table 3: Summary of PSM quality indicators from 5 nearest-neighbor matching ....................... 34 Table 4: Number of observations in common support region for each matching ........................ 36 Table 5: Average outcome variables by group of plots (before matching) .................................. 37 Table 6: Average outcome variables by group of households (the common support observations with propensity score weights) ............................................................................................. 37 Table 7: Impacts of land titling ..................................................................................................... 39 Table 8: Definitions of outcome variables and covariates ............................................................ 45 Table 9: Descriptive statistics for treatment and control plots ..................................................... 47 Table 10: Test of matching quality (land title from the government versus control group) ......... 51 Table 11: Test of matching quality (land title from local authority versus control group) .......... 53 Table 12: Test of matching quality (land title from the government versus local authority) ....... 55 Table 13: Test of matching quality (general land title versus control group) ............................... 57 Table 14: Impact of formal land title ............................................................................................ 59 Table 15: Impact of semi-formal land title ................................................................................... 61 Table 16: Formal land title versus semi-formal land title ............................................................. 63 Table 17: Impact of general land title ........................................................................................... 65 Table 18: Variable definitions and summary statistics by year .................................................... 92 Table 19: Correlation coefficients for MVP regression equations ............................................... 94 Table 20: Correlated random effects (CRE) estimation results of the determinants of adoption of agricultural technology ......................................................................................................... 95 Table 21: Correlation coefficients for MVP regression equations ............................................. 126 Table 22: Summary of PSM quality indicators from 5 nearest-neighbor matching ................... 129 ix Table 23: Number of observations in common support region for each matching .................... 130 Table 24: Average modern input adoption rates by group of households (before matching) .... 131 Table 25: Average modern input adoption rates by group of households (the common support observations that have propensity score weights) ............................................................... 131 Table 26: Impacts of credit for agriculture ................................................................................. 132 Table 27: Definitions of outcome variables and covariates ........................................................ 140 Table 28: Descriptive statistics for households with agricultural credit ..................................... 142 Table 29: Descriptive statistics for households by different category of agricultural credit ...... 144 Table 30: Test for matching quality (impact of credit from any sources) .................................. 146 Table 31: Test for matching quality (impact of getting only formal credit) ............................... 148 Table 32: Test for matching quality (impact of getting only informal credit) ............................ 150 Table 33: Test for matching quality (impact of getting both formal and informal credit) ......... 152 Table 34: Impact of credit for agriculture (from any sources) .................................................... 156 Table 35: Impact of credit for agriculture (from only formal source) ........................................ 158 Table 36: Impact of credit for agriculture (from only informal source) ..................................... 160 Table 37: Impact of credit for agriculture (from both sources) .................................................. 162 x LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Conceptual framework .................................................................................................. 22 Figure 2: Distribution of propensity scores for matching between treatment group (land title from the government) and control group ....................................................................................... 49 Figure 3: Distribution of propensity scores for matching between treatment group (land title from the local authority) and control group ................................................................................... 49 Figure 4: Distribution of propensity scores for matching between treatment group (land title from the government) and land title from the local authority ....................................................... 50 Figure 5: Distribution of propensity scores for matching between treatment group ( general land title) and land title from the local authority .......................................................................... 50 Figure 6: Distribution of propensity scores for matching between treatment group (HHs with any category of agricultural credit) and control group .............................................................. 154 Figure 7: Distribution of propensity scores for matching between Treatment Group (HHs with only formal credit for agriculture) and control group ......................................................... 154 Figure 8: Distribution of propensity scores for matching between Treatment Group (HHs with only informal credit for agriculture) and control group ...................................................... 155 Figure 9: Distribution of propensity scores for matching between Treatment Group (HHs with both types of credit for agriculture) and control group ....................................................... 155 xi CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION Though the share of agricultural GDP and labor force may have declined in low-income countries, the number of rural households that depend on agriculture as the main source of income remains significant (Timmer, 1988; Hazell, Poulton, Wiggins, & Dorward, 2010). In general, the sources of growth matter for poverty reduction, with growth in labor-intensive sectors such as agriculture having greater poverty-reducing effects than growth in capital- intensive sectors (Christilansen & Devarajan, 2013; Ravallion, 2001). Further, the two common characteristics of agriculture in low-income countries are: (1) agriculture comprises a relatively larger share of the total economy; and (2) the productivity is low (Timmer, 1988). Hence, in order for a developing or low-income country to achieve a goal of self-sustained growth, there is a need for agriculture to shift from subsistence farming to a more productive and commercialized agricultural sector. To this end, improving productivity and production practices at the farm level is of particular importance for agrarian economies. An approach to this agenda has centered on promoting adoption of improved farm technology, which is expected to have a significant impact on livelihood improvement and poverty reduction through better income generation (Minten & Barrett, 2008; Ali & Abdulai, 2010). Cambodia’s agriculture is not an exception to the challenges that other low-income economies are facing. Some major constraints on Cambodia’s agricultural productivity include limited use of cultivation techniques, and appropriate use of inputs (RGC, 2013). Rice is the main crop of Cambodia’s agriculture because it covers 75 percent of the total cultivated area (FAO, 2014) and has a significant share (around one third) of total agricultural output (NIS, 2011). The government promotes the adoption of improved farm technologies (irrigation, fertilizer and improved seeds) which are considered one of the driving forces for agricultural 1 production, especially in the rice sector through productivity improvement (RGC, 2010) In line with this, the empirical study by Yu & Fan (2011) also suggests that there is a great potential for Cambodia to enhance rice productivity by expanding the adoption of modern technology and modern inputs, and by improving rural infrastructure, i.e. irrigation and transportation. However, the research on the adoption of agricultural technology in Cambodia has not been extensive, though Cambodia’s agriculture is instrumental to rural livelihood improvement. Hence, motivated by the aforementioned gap, this dissertation aims to examine the issues of adoption of agricultural technologies among farmers in Cambodia by using econometric analysis in order to have better insights than previous literature could provide. More specifically, the dissertation takes the form of three empirical research papers intending to understand the household’s decision to adopt improved farm technologies, e.g. fertilizer and improved seed varieties. The first paper, “The Impact of Land Titling on the Adoption of Productivity-enhancing Inputs in Cambodia’s Rice Production,” estimates the impact of formal and semi-formal land titles on the adoption of chemical fertilizer, manure and productivity in Cambodia’s paddy production. It uses Propensity Score Matching (PSM) and regressions on the matched samples to estimate the effects for each type of land title, controlling for village heterogeneity. The study is based on pooled cross-sectional data from a nationally representative household survey – the Cambodia Socio-Economic Survey (CSES) conducted in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014 by Cambodia’s National Institute of Statistics (NIS). The empirical results indicate that both types of land title have a positive and significant impact on the likelihood of fertilizer and manure adoption. However, the impact of formal land titling on manure adoption is higher than that of semi-formal titling. Further, neither type of land 2 titling has a significant effect on fertilizer expenditure and yield. The fact that it does not detect any effect of land tenure status on yield is puzzling and may relate to the fact that rice is a short- term crop and fertilizer expenditure is also a short-term investment, and land titling is more important for longer term investments. Regarding the policy implications, the lack of significant difference between formal and semi-formal title on fertilizer use implies that land users are unlikely to apply for the more expensive formal title except when a systematic program is in place to reduce its cost. The government may wish to seek to reduce the cost of land transfer and registration through the formal system more widely. This is because the formal land titling enables the government to have an up-to-date cadastral system, which is an essential legal basis for handling potential land conflicts. The second paper, “Adoption of Interrelated Farm Technologies in Cambodia: The Case of Improved Rice Varieties and Chemical Fertilizer,” examines whether farmers’ decisions to adopt improved rice varieties and chemical fertilizer are interrelated (interdependent), and analyze the factors that determine decisions to adopt those improved farm technologies. The study is based on plot-level panel data from the HARVEST household panel survey (2012-2016) in four provinces in Tonle Sap region – one of the four agro-ecological zones in Cambodia. Also, it uses qualitative data from 25 semi-structured interviews which were conducted with some of the surveyed households in order to assist with the interpretation and enrich the discussion of the empirical findings. The results suggest that adoption of an improved rice variety and chemical fertilizer at the plot level are complementary. Further, there is empirical evidence that the probability of adopting improved farm technologies is positively associated with various factors: irrigation, social learning in the form of information from neighbors, age of household head, secondary 3 education, TV ownership (as a means of accessing the media), and remittances. At the same time, our results show that the probability of adoption is negatively related with land size of a household. These findings provide a better understanding about the design and implementation of policy intervention to promote the adoption of improved farm technologies in Cambodia. The third paper, “The Linkage between Agricultural Credit and Adoption of Interrelated Modern Inputs in Cambodia’s Rice Production,” follows up on the second paper by further exploring the role of credit in the adoption of interrelated inputs (high-yield variety, chemical fertilizer, and pesticide, herbicide or fungicide). It applies Propensity Score Matching (PSM) and regressions on the matched samples to examine the linkage between agricultural credit and the adoption of the interrelated inputs. This study relies on a cross-sectional survey from Census of Agriculture of Cambodia (CAC) 2013, conducted by Cambodia’s National Institute of Statistics (NIS). The results indicate that credit for agricultural activities increases the probability of adoption of high-yield rice variety, fertilizer, pesticide (or herbicide/fungicide) and the combination of the three types of modern input. Additionally, we also find that the high-yield rice variety, fertilizer and pesticide or herbicide or fungicide are all complements. Nonetheless, the impact on high-yield rice variety adoption is not robust. The effect of credit on adoption of pesticide (or herbicide/fungicide) is the most robust, particularly when farm households contract loans from both formal and informal sources. Further, the linkage between credit and adoption of the combination of the three types of modern inputs is positive and statistically significant. Our empirical finding suggests that the affordable credit for farm activities increases adoption of modern inputs. 4 These three papers add to the literature on improved farm technology adoption in Cambodia, and the findings serve as inputs for the design and implementation of policy intervention to promote the adoption of agricultural technology in Cambodia. The key message from the first essay is that formal land titling does not play a more important role than semi-formal titling in fertilizer use and productivity of Cambodia’s rice production. Besides, the important implication from essay two is that in addition to irrigation and other significant factors, farmers’ access to information and their knowledge related to rice production technology also have a positive and significant linkage with farmer’s decision to adopt the complementary improved farm technologies in Cambodia’ rice farming. Finally, the main message of the third paper is that access to affordable credit for farm activities has a significant role in promoting adoption of agricultural technology. 5 REFERENCES 6 REFERENCES Ali, A., & Abdulai, A. (2010). The Adoption of Genetically Modified Cotton and Poverty Reduction in Pakistan. Journal of Agricultural Economics, 61(1), 175–192. Christiaensen, L., & Devarajan, S. (2013). Making the Most of Africa ’ s Growth. Current History, 112(754), 181–187. Hazell, P., Poulton, C., Wiggins, S., & Dorward, A. (2010). The Future of Small Farms: Trajectories and Policy Priorities. World Development, 38(10), 1349–1361. NIS -National Institute of Statistics. (2011). National Accounts of Cambodia 1993-2010. Phnom Penh: NIS. Ravallion, M. (2001). Growth, inequality and poverty: Looking beyond averages. World Development, 29(11), 1803–1815. RGC-Royal Government of Cambodia. (2010). Policy Document on Promotion of Paddy Rice Production and Export of Milled Rice. Phnom Penh. RGC-Royal Government of Cambodia. (2013). Rectangular Strategy-Phase III, 2014-2018. Phnom Penh. Timmer, P. (1988). The Agricultural Transformation. In Handbook of Development Economics (Vol. I, pp. 275–331). Amsterdam: North-Holland. Yu, B., & Fan, S. (2011). Rice Production Response in Cambodia. Agricultural Economics, 42(3), 437–450. 7 PRODUCTIVITY-ENHANCING INPUTS IN CAMBODIA’S CHAPTER 2: IMPACT OF LAND TITLING ON THE ADOPTION OF RICE PRODUCTION 2.1. Introduction Land as a factor of agricultural production is one of the most important assets. In this regard, land tenure security has been of interest to policy makers and researchers because of its expected positive linkage with productivity-improving measures such as farm investments and greater use of variable inputs (Abdulai, Owusu, & Goetz, 2011; Feder, Onchan, Chanlamwong, & Hongladarom, 1988). The aforementioned linkage has been well documented in literature, much of which has shown positive impacts of land title on agricultural performance such as investment and adoption of improved technology. On the other hand, many studies have not shown this relationship. In other words, empirical evidence does not always suggest that land title has significant impact on agricultural production. For example, Besley (1995), Goldstein & Udry (2008), Deininger & Jin (2006), Minten & Barrett (2008), Abdulai et al. (2011), Kassie, Jaleta, Shiferaw, Mmbando, & Mekuria (2013), Teklewold, Kassie, & Shiferaw (2013), Nguyen, Bauer, & Grote (2016) found a positive effect of land rights on land investment and adoption of improved farm technology, whereas others did not (see, for instance, Pender & Kerr, 1999; Place & Otsuka, 2002; Brasselle, Gaspart, & Platteau, 2002). In general, under certain circumstances land title can play a critial role in providing land security and serving as collateral for credit, but emprical evidence shows that the importance of this role varies depending on the specific conditions prevailing under any given sitution (Place, 2009). In Cambodia, after the collapse of genocidal regime in 1979, the government did not provide households with any legal documents to certify ownership of their cultivated land. They had only rights to residential land while cultivated land was owned and managed collectively. 8 However, since 1989 it has been possible to obtain land title through sporadic land registration, a process by which individual landowners choose to register for land titling. They can get the certificate if they meet all conditions required by law, but it is quite costly in both money and time for rural landholders to apply for land title by themselves. Meanwhile, there was a significant increase in conflicts over land rights in the 1990s because of rising demand for arable land and an underdeveloped land registry system (Markussen, 2008; Thin, 2012; So, 2009). To address this problem and speed up land registration in the country, systematic land titling was introduced in 2002 under the government and a World Bank program (Thin, 2012; So, 2009). Apart from these approaches to obtain formal title, the routine practice for rural land transfer is that people go to the commune office to have their written agreement certified with a signature and stamp from a commune chief. This is an alternative, less formal approach to registration that is attractive when landowners are not able to afford formal land title (So, 2009). This semi- formal system provides landowners with a land certificate issued by the local authority, but the name of the owner of the transferred land is not recorded in the cadastral registrar of the Ministry of Land Management, Urban Planning and Construction (MLMUPC). More details on land governance in Cambodia will be presented in section 2.3 of this chapter. There have been a number of empirical studies on the causal impact of land title on farm investment and productivity in Cambodia. For example, Markussen (2008) used an instrumental variable approach using cross-sectional plot-level data from the Cambodia Socio-Economic Survey 2004 and found that land title has a significant positive impact on crop productivity. Also, Tong (2010) conducted a follow-up study using the Cambodia Socio-Economic Survey (CSES) 2007 and the same empirical method, and his results were consistent with Markussen’s (2008) findings. Thin (2012) used CSES 2003-2004 to estimate the impact of land rights on land 9 investment, consumption and child health in the landowner’s household by employing propensity score matching and instrumental variable approaches. This study found that the impact of a land title was significant and positive for all of the outcomes studied. However, thus far, the impact of land tenure and titling on adoption of important variable inputs such as fertilizer and manure has yet to be documented in the literature on land tenure in Cambodia. This is important because there is great potential for Cambodia to enhance rice productivity by expanding the use of fertilizer and irrigation (Yu & Fan, 2011). This study intends to add to the literature on land titling and adoption of fertilizers by documenting the impact of land title on the adoption of chemical fertilizer and manure in Cambodia. More specifically, the main objective of this essay is to estimate the average impact of the different types of land titling (title from the government and certificate from local authority) at the plot level. There are four main outcome variables in this study: yield, expenditure per hectare on chemical fertilizer, and dichotomous adoption variables (1 for adoption; 0 otherwise) for both chemical fertilizer and manure. I use propensity score matching (PSM) to minimize the selection bias of land titling, and the covariates for the PSM approach include plot and household characteristics. Then, I run regressions on the matched samples to estimate the impact of land titling by controlling for plot, household, and village characteristics (the latter through village fixed effects). The regressions are weighted by propensity score weights so as to make the treatment and comparison groups comparable, and standard errors are clustered at the village level to get robust standard errors. We use pooled cross-sectional data from a nationally representative household survey – the Cambodia Socio-Economic Survey (CSES) conducted in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014 by Cambodia’s National Institute of Statistics (NIS). 10 The chapter is organized as follows. It begins with the background of the study (this section), and this is followed in section 2.2 by a literature review about the impact of land titling on agricultural production, especially on variable input use and adoption of improved farm technology. Section 2.3 presents the Cambodian context of land title and rice production. The conceptual framework and estimation strategy are shown in section 2.4. Section 2.5 describes the data source and descriptive statistics. Section 2.6 is the core section which focuses on the findings and a discussion of their implications. The conclusion and policy implications are presented in the last section. 2.2. Literature review This section discusses the empirical evidence of the impacts of land tenure on adoption of improved technology and farm investment, particularly adoption of and expenditure on fertilizer and manure. Because empirical studies of the impacts of land title on agricultural investment and adoption of improved technology are inconclusive, our literature review examines both the studies that support the theory of positive impact of land title and the ones showing insignificant effect. Also, we review how local context such as land governance institutions and socio- economic characteristics can affect the role of land titling in increasing farm investment. In the areas where land is abundant, customary land tenure system is prevailing and land renting is common (Holden & Otsuka, 2014). As population keeps growing, however, land becomes scarce. As a result, land rights have to be well-defined and safeguarded by an effective state institution. One of the seminal early works on the impacts of land title on agricultural outcomes is the study by Feder, Onchan, Chanlamwong, & Hongladarom (1988). The study used reduced form regressions and found that land title had a positive and significant impact on input use and 11 access to credit in Thailand. Another prominent empirical study on the causal relationship between land title and farm investment was conducted by Besley (1995), which used data from Ghana and controlled for endogeneity of land tenure. He found that tenure security encouraged investment in one study area but not in another. Also, Goldstein & Udry (2008) found that households with good social and political networking had more secure land rights, which in turn motivated them to invest more in land fertility. Further, Holden, Deininger, & Ghebru (2009) used three rounds of household- and plot- level data to evaluate the impact of low-cost land registration and certification on maintenance of soil conservation structures and land productivity in the Tigray region of Ethiopia. The results suggest the significant and positive impact of land certification. In connection with this, Abdulai, Owusu, & Goetz (2011) empirically found that farmers with secure land rights are likely to embrace some types of investments such as soil improvement measures using mulch and manure. It is worth noting that manure has benefits that last more than one season by adding organic matter to the soil, but fertilizer’s benefits normally last just one season (Motavalli, Singh, & Anders, 1994). Kassie et al. (2013) and Teklewold, Kassie, & Shiferaw (2013) also found a positive association between land tenure and adoption of fertilizer and animal manure. However, the empirical results of both of these studies may suffer from selection bias because the land title is treated as a regressor in cross-sectional analysis without addressing endogeneity. Furthermore, there have been other empirical studies providing evidence of a positive linkage between land title and the use of productivity-enhancing inputs, particularly in Asia. A study in Vietnam by Do & Iyer (2008) found that the share of land area allocated to multi-year crops increased as a result of land titling. In northeast rural China, Jacoby, Li, & Rozelle (2002) found that tenure insecurity significantly reduced application of organic fertilizer. Banerjee, 12 Gertler, & Ghatak (2002) found that tenancy reform had a positive effect on agricultural productivity in the Indian State of West Bengal after a tenancy reform program was launched there in the late 1970s. Li, Rozelle, & Brandt (1998) found a positive linkage between the length of tenure and use of organic manure and phosphate fertilizer in maize production in rural northeast China. Additionally, Nguyen, Bauer, & Grote (2016) used panel household data (1993, 1998 and 2006) and random effect regression and confirmed that land tenure security had a positive impact on manure use in the northern uplands of Vietnam. On the other hand, some studies did not find a significant impact of land tenure. Pender & Kerr (1999) examined the effects land sales restrictions on credit, land investment and cultivation decisions in two villages in South India. Their empirical results suggest that land sale restrictions were not significantly associated with inefficiency in the two villages. Place & Otsuka (2002) found that tenure had no impact on farm investment and crop productivity in Uganda, but the impact was estimated by ordinary least squares (OLS) regression, which did not enable them to deal with endogeneity of land tenure. The emprical study by Brasselle, Gaspart, & Platteau (2002) controlled for endogeneity and their findings suggest no causal relationship between land rights and agricultural investment in Burkina Faso. The insignificant impact of land tenure on farm investment and the use of yield-enhancing inputs has been commonly found in sub-Saharan Africa (Atwood, 1990; Place & Hazell, 1993; Platteau, 1996). In this regard, empirical evidence shows that the impact of formal land tenure varies depending on the specific conditions prevailing under any given sitution (Place, 2009). It suggests that two main factors, discussed below, determine the ability of land titling to perform its role in providing land security: 1) administrative capacity of land institutions, and 2) socio-economic conditions (Jacoby & Minten, 2007; Benjaminsen, Holden, Lund, & Sjaastad, 2009; Thin, 2012). 13 2.2.1. Administrative capacity of land institutions In order for land titling to provide tenure security, it has to be endorsed by an effective state system capable of enforcing land rights (Feder et al., 1988). To this end, successful land governance requires strong administrative capacity. First, the government body in charge of land title registration must be able to facilitate land registration with an affordable cost and a simple procedure. Second, the supporting infrastructure of land registry, particularly the information system, also matters because it enables the land institution to update the information of land transfers. That is, failure to have up-to-date records of land holding may cause a lack of legally recognized rights, thereby negatively affecting the successes of the land registration institution. Third, the judicial system is a key supporting institution, ensuring justice when there is a land conflict and protecting the vulnerable against potential land grabbing by elites. The study by Jansen & Roquas (1998) confirmed that one of the reasons for the failure of the Land Titling Project for Small Farmers in Honduras was the bureaucracy’s organizational incapacity. Further, Benjaminsen, Holden, Lund, & Sjaastad (2008) indicated that insufficient administrative preparedness is a main constraint to formalization of land rights in Niger. The empirical evidence from Jacoby & Minten’s (2007) study showed that land title has no significant impact on land investment in rural Madagascar, and the key institutional constraints include out-of-date records of land registration and costly and complex procedures, which also has been shown to be a major issue in some African countries (Platteau, 1996; Atwood, 1990). 2.2.2. Socio-economic context Apart from administrative capacity of land registration institutions, a country’s socio- economic context is also a key determinant of the importance of land titling. In particular, failure to determine whether or not informal institutions and practices can provide sufficient land 14 security may result in counterproductive outcomes of a land titling program. Fundamentally, land titling may not have any significant role in the countries where indigenous land rights are still prevalent (Atwood, 1990) or where there is a well-functioning government program offering tenure rights but without full titling (Pender & Kerr, 1999). As suggested by Feder et al. (1988), titling is more appropriate in countries where the potential return on land is increasing, and landowners need rules to secure their land tenure to minimize land disputes and land grabbing. Under some circumstances, if land title is undertaken without comprehensive knowledge of a country’s land issues it may even exacerbate the inequitable distribution of land in cases where local elites take advantage of land reform to grab more land. For instance, some land rights formalization (titling) attempts in Africa were not successful in providing tenure security, because the customary land ownership system was already well-functioning while the land reform law was in favor of the elites at the expense of the poor and vulnerable (Atwood, 1990; Brasselle et al., 2002; Benjaminsen et al., 2008). Hence, in order for land titling to reach its full potential, there is a need for a social adaptation and response in terms of culture, politics and other socio-economic characteristics, such as increased commercialization of land and population growth. 2.3. An overview of the country context 2.3.1. Land title in Cambodia In Cambodia, between 1979 and 1989 following the downfall of the genocidal Khmer Rouge regime, all land officially belonged to the government, and cultivated land was collectively managed (Boreak, 2000). However, the collectivization system was not successful for various reasons. First, farmers were not motivated to work because output was also distributed to the group members who did not contribute their labor to cultivation. Second, the 15 rules were not strictly enforced to deal with group members who were not willing to work. Third, farm inputs such as seeds, fertilizers and fuels were only offered to the model solidarity groups. Hence, with the failure of collectivization and a shift in the economic system from a centrally- planned economy to free markets in 1989, the government reintroduced private property rights (Boreak, 2000). 2.3.1.1. Formal land registration (land title issued by the government) In 1989, the government started introducing private land ownership rights. Following the adoption of the Land Law of 1992, landowners were increasingly encouraged to apply for formal ownership by submitting all relevant documents as proof of their occupation without any conflict over the plot. Under this law, land title can be achieved through sporadic land registration which is a process by which individual landowners choose to register for a land title, which they can get if they meet all conditions required by law. However, it is quite costly for rural landholders to apply for land title by themselves because oftentimes they need to pay unofficial fees to get their application approved (So, 2009; Un & So, 2011). Consequently, only a small portion of tenure applications were granted formal land titles (Markussen, 2008). According to Chan, Tep, & Sarthi (2001) and Thin (2012), sporadic land registration is conducted through a multi-step bureaucratic procedure. First, an application form is issued to the applicant and a schedule is set for land survey and demarcation, if there is no counter claim or conflict. Second, when the land survey and demarcation have been completed, the district cadastral office signs a form recording the land holder’s identity and land’s boundaries. Third, this form is shown to the public for 30 days. Fourth, the land is registered by the district cadastral staff into a land registration map. Fifth, the application and relevant supporting documents are forwarded to the provincial or city cadastral office where information of the land claim is 16 recorded into the land registry. In the final step, the application is sent to the General Department of Cadastre and Geography (GDCG) under the Ministry of Land Management, Urban Planning and Construction (MLMUPC) for issuance of land title. There was a significant increase in conflicts over land rights in the 1990s because of rising demand for the arable land and an underdeveloped land registry system (Markussen, 2008; Thin, 2012). To address this problem through speeding up land registration in the country, Systematic Land Registration (SLR) was introduced in 2002 (Thin, 2012). This project was mainly funded by the World Bank with the goal of completing land registration from 2002 to 2017. SLR was founded on a 2001 amendment to the Land Law that allowed people to legally receive land title if they had already occupied a parcel free of conflict for no less than five years before the promulgation of the law. In general, SLR is targeted at the commune level and most parcels in a commune are registered at the same time by cadastral teams composed of registration specialists and land surveyors. After collecting information about landholders and conducting land surveys, the team proceeds with registering land into the cadastral system (So, 2009). The annual report from the Ministry of Land Management, Urban Planning and Construction (MLMUPC) shows that by December 2014, around 3.8 million titles had been issued via sporadic and systematic land registration. As of now, landholders can still apply for title through sporadic land registration if the systematic land registration program is not available in their commune. Thin (2012) reveals that it takes 3 to 4 months for a land title to be issued under sporadic land registration and 5 to 7 months under the SLR. This may be due to the fact that systematic land registration is conducted at the commune level, so the SLR teams need time to register numerous parcels into the cadastral system. It costs landholders $0.25 per 1,000 m2 for agricultural land in rural areas for issuance of 17 a land title under SLR, while the official fee under sporadic land registration is approximately $2.50 per 1,000 m2. In practice, the fee charged under sporadic land registration is higher than this, and it is not clearly defined by the size of the landholding (So, 2009). Furthermore, the formal land transfer system requires a complicated procedure and a high transfer fee. For example, after the transfer form is signed by the district governor, land holders have to pay a tax of 4 percent of the sale’s value at the provincial tax department (Thin, 2012; So, 2009). Subsequently, the transfer form and tax receipt are verified by the provincial Department of Land Management before being forwarded to the MLMUPC. This implies that that the cost of registration declines with the size of the parcel. Hence, if one owns a small and inexpensive parcel of agricultural land, one may have a low incentive to pursue formal land transfer as opposed to semi-formal. This is because of the high costs of formal land transfer and the complicated procedure. Nonetheless, there is no information on the exact costs of formal land transfer, because it is sometimes associated with corruption, which is a sensitive issue (So, 2009). 2.3.1.2. Semi-formal land registration (land title issued by the local authority) Apart from formal land registration, the routine practice for rural land transfer is that landholders who are exchanging rights to a piece of land go to the commune office to have their written agreement certified with a signature and stamp from a commune chief. This is an alternative, less formal approach to registration that is attractive when people are not able to afford formal land transfer (So, 2009). The official fee under sporadic land registration is approximately $2.50 per 1,000 m2, but information about the unofficial fees is not available. Also, we have no information about the exact cost of informal land registration, but it is significantly lower than for sporadic formal land registration. The semi-formal system provides 18 landowners with a land certificate issued by the local authority, but the owner’s name of the transferred land is not updated in the cadastral registrar of the MLMUPC – the only government institution responsible for land title registration. The most important reason for landholders to prefer this semi-formal practice to the formal land transfer system is that the latter is costly, as mentioned in the discussion of the formal process. The semi-formal system is convenient for rural and poor landholders, but it creates difficulties for the systematic land registration process. This is because under the semi-formal system the owner’s name of the transferred land is not recorded in the cadastral registrar of MLMUPC, thereby potentially resulting in an out-of-date cadastral system when the commune chiefs fail to regularly report the land transactions to the cadastral office. Then, the outdated cadastral system can negatively affect the land governance institution. In connection with this, Thin (2012) and So (2009) argue that systematic land registration was successful in building an initial record of landholding, but not in updating the cadastral registrar when land ownership is transferred. 2.3.2. Cambodia’s rice sector Cambodia is an agrarian and low-income country (FAO, 2014) with a narrow base of economic growth because the economy relies on three main pillars: industry (garments), services (tourism and construction) and agriculture. Agriculture is the second biggest contributor to GDP (around 34 percent of GDP in 2013), following the service sector (ADB, 2014). Agriculture’s moderate average growth rate was around 4 percent over the period 1996-2013, compared to industry (12 percent) and service sectors (18 percent). Regarding the labor force, the share of employment in agriculture was 65 percent in 2012 (FAO, 2014; NIS, 2011). The majority of rural livelihoods depend on agriculture. Rice is the main crop (NIS, 2011), covering 3.7 million 19 hectares or 75 percent of the total cultivated area (FAO, 2014). Most Cambodian farmers are smallholders with each household owning less than two hectares of land (FAO, 2014). Cambodia’s agriculture has faced challenges such as vulnerable farming systems and low productivity because of an underdeveloped irrigation system, poor cultivation techniques, and inadequate use of high quality inputs including fertilizer and seeds. (RGC, 2013). The country’s average rice yield is lower than that of neighboring Vietnam and Laos (CDRI, 2013; Sok, Chap, & Chheang, 2011). In 2008, for instance, rice yield in Cambodia was 2.58 tons/ha while it was 4.88 tons/ha in Vietnam, 3.53 tons/ha in Laos and 2.76 tons/ha in Thailand (Yu & Fan, 2011). Additionally, lack of government investment in agriculture and agricultural research is also a constraint to improving Cambodia’s agricultural growth. For example, the share of government expenditure on agriculture has ranged from 1.7 to 2.4 percent between 2002 and 2010 (Keo & Theng, 2013). The empirical study by Yu & Fan (2011) suggests that there is great potential for Cambodia to enhance rice productivity by expanding the adoption of modern inputs, particularly fertilizer. A descriptive and qualitative study of fertilizer markets in Cambodia by Theng, Khiev, & Phon (2014) shows that the fertilizer use rates remain low for several reasons including: (1) complicated import licensing procedures and regulations; (2) underfunding of research on fertilizer application; and (3) lack of clarity regarding roles and responsibilities between government institutions in charge of regulating fertilizer trade. Chemical fertilizer and organic fertilizers (manure and plant residues) are the two productivity-improving inputs that are commonly used in Cambodian agriculture, including rice production. The proportion of households reporting the use of chemical fertilizer is 70 percent (NIS, 2015b). Among the four agro-ecological zones of Cambodia, proportions of households 20 using chemical and organic fertilizers were highest in the Plains Zone, followed by the Tonle Sap Lake, Coastal, Plateau and Mountainous Zones. 2.4. Conceptual framework and empirical methodology 2.4.1. Conceptual framework This sub-section conceptualizes how land title affects farmers’ behavior of adopting and spending on productivity-enhancing inputs such as fertilizers, and manure. In general, there are two ways in which a land title provides landowners with incentives to make productivity- enhancing investments on farmland. First, because it is backed by the land governance institution capable of enforcing the property rights, it acts as an assurance of ownership for one’s land, therefore incentivizing the owner to invest more in their farm (Besley, 1995). In this regard, the land title will safeguard the farm from any prospective grabbing from a third party before production and income from an investment in the farm can be realized (Fenske, 2011). Second, having secure property rights will facilitate farmers’ access to credit from both informal and formal financial institutions since land can be used as collateral. As a result it enables farmers to scale up their investments (Besley, 1995) including the adoption of improved farm technology. The conceptual framework of our study is based on the above theoretical perspectives and a modification of Feder et al. (1988) and Nguyen, Bauer, & Grote (2016), which conceptualized causal linkages between land titling and investment in farming, particularly soil fertility improvement. As our outcome variables are fertilizer and manure use and productivity, we do not focus on the land market or land prices in our framework. As shown in Figure 1, land title from either the central government or a local government authority minimizes land ownership uncertainty, therefore enhancing incentives to invest and put forth management effort. Additionally, titled land can serve as collateral for credit, which enables farmers who have 21 liquidity constraints to contract loans for their input purchases. Greater use of inputs, particularly chemical fertilizer and manure, leads to improvements in soil fertility and productivity. Figure 1: Conceptual framework Land titling Greater management effort Larger investment Greater use of chemical fertilizer Source: Adapted from Feder et al. (1988); Nguyen, Bauer, & Grote (2016) Greater use of manure Improvements in soil fertility and productivity This conceptual framework depends on various assumptions that hold to a certain extent in the context of Cambodian land titling. First, the framework is more appropriate in countries where arable land becomes scarcer with an increasing population, and landowners demand rules or institutions supportive of well-defined land rights, which is the case in Cambodia (Markussen, 2008; RGC, 2014). This is because land titling does not necessarily have any critical role in providing land security and serving as collateral for credit in the countries where there is a well- functioning customary land ownership system, or where there is a well-functioning government program offering tenure rights but without full titling (Pender & Kerr, 1999; Place, 2009). Second, this conceptual framework is applicable when land titling is secured by an effective state-enforced system. Even though there have been some limitations in land governance 22 institutions (as discussed in section 3 of this article), Cambodia has a legal framework and a government body in charge of land title registration, which enable landowners to legally own a given plot of land without relying on social customs. Hence, we can hypothesize that, other things equal, a titled plot in Cambodia has more secure tenure than a plot without any title. Figure 1 succinctly summarizes the linkages between land titling and improvement in soil fertility and productivity through great uses of chemical fertilizer and manure. It should be noted that the link from land titling and management effort will not be empirically tested in this study, because there is no data about that. The main reason for mentioning it in the framework is to explain the relationship between land titling and the outcomes. 2.4.2. Empirical methodology In Cambodia, there is no evidence that receiving or providing land title is random, so its impact estimator is subject to selection bias or endogeneity. Fundamentally, selection bias refers to pre-existing differences between the treatment and comparison group that can influence the outcomes of the treatment. The two main types of selection bias are self-selection bias and program placement bias (Duflo, Glennerster, & Kremer, 2006). In the context of Cambodia land title, our estimation can be subject to both types of selection bias. First, landowners can choose to apply for land title issued by the government through sporadic land registration if there is no systematic land registration assigned to their village, or to get a land certificate from local authority if they are not able to afford the cost of formal land registration or transfer. In this situation, our estimated impact is confounded by self-selection which is a major problem in impact evaluation studies because people decide to participate in a program on a voluntary basis, which is not random (Duflo, 2004). For example, if households with better education, more 23 wealth and higher social status are more likely to get land title, attributing greater use of fertilizer and manure to land title is biased. Second, households may obtain land title through the systematic land registration whose placement criteria are not random. That is, for instance, if the program is targeted to poorer areas, the estimated impacts of the treatment would be underestimated because the treatment group is worse off than the comparison counterpart, regardless of land title. Our study uses cross-sectional data, so instrumental variables (IVs) and the Propensity Score Matching (PSM) are the potential methods to address the selection bias. The mode of land acquisition is available in our sample; it has been shown to be a valid IV under some conditions (Besley, 1995; Tong, 2010; Brasselle, Gaspart, & Platteau, 2002). However, the logic of IVs is not valid when some of the households in the sample received land title through the systematic land registration because the IV method is applicable when households self-selected to apply for land rights (sporadic land registration). That is, as argued by Besley (1995) and Markussen (2008), landowners are more likely to be motivated to apply for land title on plots acquired by purchase than plots acquired by forest clearance for free. On the other hand, with systematic land registration, the program targets certain villages, and it is possible for landowners to obtain a land title regardless of their motivation to apply for it. Thus, the IV method is not feasible because I have no way to distinguish plots that received sporadic versus systematic land registration, as this information is not available. Therefore the method for this study is PSM, which has been used to quantitatively assess the impacts of policy and program interventions using cross-sectional data (Rosenbaum & Rubin, 1983; Caliendo & Kopeinig, 2008; Kuwornu & Owus, 2012; Dillon, 2011; Davis et al., 2012 ). There are also some impact evaluation studies of land titling using this method such as 24 Galiani & Schargrodsky (2004); Galiani & Schargrodsky (2010); Thin (2012). Our large sample size is a considerable advantage for the matching process because there will be sufficient sample size of the comparison group, which enables the common support (matched sample) to have large enough statistical power to reduce the bias in impact estimation (Khandker, Koolwal, & Samad, 2010). The two treatments are defined as (1) plot with land certificate from the government, and (2) plot with certificate from the local authority, while the control plot is the one with no paper to certify ownership. I use PSM to get the matched samples to make four sets of comparisons regarding the outcome variables: 1) control plots to plots with a land certificate from the government; 2) control plots to plots with a certificate from the local authority; 3) plots with a certificate from the central government to those with a certificate from the local authority; and 4) control plots to plots with any kind of land certificate1 – either from the central government or from the local authority. When there is more than one treatment group it is common to take this approach of comparing all possible comparison groups (see, for example, Dillon, 2011; Blimpo, 2014). 2.4.2.1. Steps in propensity score matching In the PSM approach, the treatment and comparison groups with comparable propensity score – the estimated conditional probability of receiving the intervention given observed characteristics – are matched. The observations whose propensity scores are not comparable (not in common support) are dropped from the analysis. By using propensity score matching adapted from Guo & Fraser (2014) and Ravallion (2001), the analytical process of PSM is presented as follows. 1 Previous studies in Cambodia applied only the fourth comparison conducted in this study; that is, they estimated the impact of land title in general, regardless of its type. 25 First, I must estimate the probability of a plot receiving land title by using logit regression. A binary logit model can be specified as: IP ( i = |1 X ) = i 1 e X -b 1 + = XP ( i ) (equation 1) Where Xi is a vector of explanatory variables or covariates including attributes of plot, household, and village which are likely to affect the probability of receiving land titles. After running the logit model, I predict propensity score, P(Xi), for every sample of the treatment and comparison groups. Second, after estimating the propensity score, I match the treated and comparison observations based on propensity scores using the matching techniques – e.g. nearest neighbor (NN) or kernel estimators; the pros and cons of each matching technique will be outlined in the appendix. Third, I check the region of common support to avoid comparing incomparable observations which could result in evaluation bias. To check the quality of matching, one can compare the covariates (Xi) before and after matching. The mean and median of absolute bias are expected to decrease markedly after matching. In addition, the standardized bias of each control variable (covariate) in the logistic regression before and after matching is also used to figure out whether there are systematic differences in the means of the control variables across both groups (Rosenbaum & Rubin, 1983). That is, after matching, no significant differences in the covariates between both groups should be found, suggesting that the observed characteristics between the two matched groups are comparable. To this end, Caliendo & Kopeinig (2008) suggest that median and average of this standardized bias below 3 and 5 percent after matching are sufficient. In addition, the Pseudo-R2 from the estimation of propensity score after matching should be lower than that before matching, and the P-values of likelihood ratio tests are non-significant after matching, indicating there are no systematic differences in the distribution of observable covariates between both groups. 26 2.4.2.2. Assumptions and limitations of PSM The first assumption of PSM is called the conditional independence assumption (CIA) or exogeneity assumption. It states that given observable covariates X that are not affected by treatment, potential outcome Y is independent of the intervention. Rosenbaum & Rubin (1983) call this unconfoundedness; it implies that uptake of an intervention or program is based entirely on observable characteristics. Rosenbaum & Rubin (1985) suggested that “when appropriate common support is established, the conditional independence assumption becomes valid” (Kuwornu & Owus, 2012, p. 12). In this regard, one can support the conditional independence assumption by controlling for many observed characteristics that can possibly affect the uptake of an intervention or program (Khandker et al., 2010). The common support or overlap condition is the second assumption of PSM; it ensures that the treatment units have comparison counterparts nearby in the propensity score distribution. The implication of this assumption is that the effectiveness of PSM also depends on a large and comparable number of the treatment observations and the non-treatment observations so as to have a substantial region of common support. As a result, there is a sizable overlap in propensity distribution across the treatment and control units, which supports the precision of the impact estimator. The main limitation of PSM is that the approach assumes that selection bias is based only on observed characteristics, so it does not address the unobserved factors influencing the likelihood of receiving treatment or program participation (Khandker, Koolwal, & Samad, 2010; Cerulli, 2015). I acknowledge this disadvantage because there has not been any nationally representative household panel survey; the Cambodia Socio-Economic Survey (CSES) is our best choice because it is the only national survey that contains useful data on land titles. In general, PSM can help to 27 reduce (not eliminate) selection bias caused by unobserved confounding factors (Kuwornu & Owus, 2012). Despite this limitation, the bias in PSM estimates can be low, given three broad requirements as revealed by Heckman, Ichimura, & Todd (1997, 1998). First, the data on treatment and control groups should be collected from the same survey (the same questionnaire, the same interviewer training and survey period). Second, a representative sample survey of eligible treatment and comparison observations can also significantly improve the precision of the propensity score. Third, the larger the sample of the eligible comparison group the smoother the matching process, because the treatment observations will keep searching for the comparison counterparts with the comparable value of the predicted propensity score. The sample for our study meets these three broad provisions because CSES is a nationally representative household survey. 2.4.2.3. Regressions on the matched samples After matching, I run regressions on the matched samples to estimate the effects of land titling. The regressions are weighted by propensity score weights from PSM to minimize the selection bias of land titling, and the standard error is clustered at village level to ensure that it is robust for making inference. Also, I control for village heterogeneity (or village fixed effects) in the regressions. The propensity score weights are defined as 1/#$%#&'()*+ (-%$& for treatment group and as 1/(1−#$%#&'()*+ (-%$&) for comparison group (Khandker et al., 2010). Since our dependent variables are continuous and binary, I specify the empirical models based on this. To look at the effects of land titling on fertilizer expenditure and yield, I use Ordinary Least Square (OLS) which is expressed in the following matrix form: 12=425+72 (equation 2) Where i is the observation running over 1 to n; Yi represent continuous outcome variables for 28 (either fertilizer expenditure or yield); 42 is a set of independent variables including plot and household characteristics, and village dummies; and 5 is vector of parameters associated with the independent variables; and 72 is an error term. model which can be derived from introducing a latent variable 12∗, which is defined as: In practice, one cannot observe 12∗, but instead one observe 12, which takes the values of 1 if 12∗>0, and 12=0 if 12∗≤0. 12∗=425+92 (equation 3) To examine the effects of land titling on the adoption of fertilizer and manure, I use probit 2.5. Data and descriptive statistics 2.5.1. Background on the Cambodia Socio-Economic Survey (CSES) In this study I use pooled cross-sectional data from a nationally representative household survey: the Cambodia Socio-Economic Survey (CSES), conducted in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014 by the National Institute of Statistics (NIS) of Cambodia. The sampling design of the CSES is a three-stage sampling process beginning from villages, enumeration areas2 to households. These surveys are cross-sectional, so each sample did not cover the same households every year. The available information includes plot characteristics, crop production, household characteristics, consumption, migration, asset, credit and village characteristics. Sample size is much larger for the 2009 and 2014 surveys than the other years. On average, 18 to 20 households were randomly selected from each village in 2009 and 2014. In 2009, 12,000 households from 720 villages were randomly selected, and in 2014 12,960 households from 1,008 villages were selected (NIS, 2010; NIS, 2015a). On average, there were approximately 10 households randomly chosen from each village in 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013 (NIS, 2013; NIS, 2014). The 2 In the Cambodia Socio-Economic Survey (CSES), the enumeration area is a smaller unit of a village. 29 survey in 2010 included 3,592 households from 360 villages, which is the same as the sample size for 2011. In 2012 about 3,600 households were randomly interviewed from 384 villages, and the sample size for 2013 is 3,840 households from 384 villages. It is worth noting that sample size of CSES varies across the years because the NIS can financially afford a large survey only once every 5 years (e.g. 2009 and 2014). I constructed the sample for our empirical analysis with a focus on the needs of our study. Its purpose is to estimate the impact on agricultural input use of formal land title issued by the government and semi-formal land title from the local authority, so we kept plots in the sample with these land titles as well as control plots with no title of either kind. Because of our focus on land titling, we drop the approximately 5 percent of plots in the sample that were rented or sharecropped. Some plots with some potential measurement errors were dropped to enhance the internal validity of our data. For example, with regard to land title, only plots that had proper answers for land titles – “Yes” or “No” – were kept while those with answers such as “lost it” or “don’t know” were dropped. Additionally, for the types of land title, plots for which the respondent had no paper to show the interviewers were dropped. Finally, we limited the plot- level data to rice production, which is the most common crop in the sample. This ensures that we have comparable data for all observations in the sample. After data management, we obtain 18,210 plots (12,142 households in 1,616 villages3), which is for all years combined. Table 1 illustrates the distribution of sample size by year, including the number of plots, households and villages from each year in the sample for this study. 3 Among these villages, there are 1,138 unique villages. 30 Table 1: Number of plots, households and villages by year Households Plots Proportion (percent) Proportion (percent) Villages Proportion (percent) Number 4,467 1,024 1,098 1,034 1,048 3,471 12,142 36.79 8.43 9.04 8.52 8.63 28.59 100 Number 401 174 181 181 183 496 1,616 24.81 10.77 11.2 11.2 11.32 30.69 100 Year 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Total Number 7,201 1,601 1,635 1,507 1,411 4,855 18,210 39.54 8.79 8.98 8.28 7.75 26.66 100 Source: Calculation based on CSES 2009 to 2014 Table 2 shows that in the sample for empirical analysis, there are 3,773 plots with a land certificate from the government, 5,003 plots with a certificate from the local authority and a control group of 9,441 plots with no certificate of any kind. The fact that there are more plots with semi-formal papers from the local authority than land with title issued by the government implies that a written agreement certified with a signature and stamp from a commune chief remains the most common practice for rural land transfer, as suggested by So (2009). Table 2: Number of plots by type of land title and year Type of land title 2013 2009 325 Land title from the government 1,286 Paper from local authority 363 1,744 No title 4,171 723 Total 7,201 1,601 1,635 1,507 1,411 Source: Calculation based on CSES 2009-2014 2,011 344 436 855 2010 356 485 760 2012 325 493 689 Total 2014 3,773 1,137 5,003 1,482 2,236 9,434 4,855 18,210 2.5.2. Definitions and summary of outcome variables and covariate There are four outcome variables for our study. They are expenditure for chemical fertilizer per hectare, dichotomous adoption variables (1 for adoption; 0 otherwise) for chemical fertilizer and manure, and yield. Regarding the covariates, we control for 33 variables including characteristics of plots and households. Definitions of all variables are reported in Table 8 of the appendix – the Table is long, so we have put it in the appendix. If the plot was planted in two 31 seasons per year, we considered it as one observation, with one unique plot ID for empirical analysis. In such cases the continuous outcome variables (i.e. fertilizer expenditure and yield) were defined as the average of both periods. For dichotomous variables, for example, fertilizer adoption was defined as 1 if this input was either in dry season, wet season or both seasons. This captures whether or not fertilizer was used on that plot. This definition also applies to manure adoption. Table 9 of the appendix displays descriptive statistics for all variables, and we choose to describe only some main variables. The average expenditure for chemical fertilizer is 176 thousand riels (around USD 45) per hectare. It is worth noting that plots with government land title had higher average expenditure for both chemical fertilizer and manure than the plots with semi-formal title and the control plots. The adoption rates of chemical fertilizer and manure were 77 percent and 58 percent, respectively. Plots with government title had higher adoption rates than those with semi-formal title and the control plots, but the yield is similar across the groups (Table 9). The average plot size of land with government title (0.689 hectare) is smaller than that of plots with local authority paper (0.961 hectare) and the control counterpart (0.864 hectare). On the modes of land acquisition, most of the plots which landholders bought (mode of acquisition 3) had a certificate from the local authority, implying that semi-formal land transfer is the routine practice, which is in line with a study by So (2009) as mentioned above. We cannot tell if the formal title was obtained through sporadic or systematic land registration, because there is no information about that in the data set. Additionally, 2.1 percent of plots had been associated with conflict: 1.4 percent of plots with government title, 2.1 percent of plots with local authority papers and 2.4 percent of control plots. 32 Apart from this, we also control for household characteristics such as demographic situation, household assets, sources of income, and access to credit. For household assets, our main variable is the value of durable goods, and we also include dummy variables for some key assets that could be hypothesized to influence the adoption decision. These include television, mobile phone, hand-tractor, generator, motorbike and pumping machine. To control for heterogeneity across the villages, we include village dummies in the regressions. 2.6. Empirical results and discussions 2.6.1. Getting the matched samples As discussed, I use Propensity Score Matching (PSM) first to compare control plots to plots with a land certificate from the government, then again to compare control plots to plots with a certificate from the local authority, then again to compare plots with a certificate from the government to those with a certificate from the local authority, and finally again to compare control plots to plots with any kind of land certificate – either from the central government or from the local authority. As mentioned in the empirical methodology section, matching plots between the treatment and control groups can be done using one of a number of matching techniques. Our main purpose of using PSM is to get matched samples to reduce bias based on observable characteristics. I choose the five nearest-neighbor matching approach because it is the common matching technique, and it also has quality matching for all comparisons. For example, Asfaw, Kassie, Simtowe, & Lipper (2012) used this approach to estimate the effects of adoption of pigeon pea technologies on poverty reduction using cross-sectional data from Tanzania. Comparisons of the mean and median of standardized bias, Pseudo-R2 and P-value of likelihood ratio tests before and after matching are recommended as useful indications for checking matching quality (Caliendo & Kopeinig, 2008). The main purpose of the comparisons is to prove 33 that there are no systematic differences in the control variables across both groups after matching (Rosenbaum & Rubin, 1983). In our study, medians and means of absolute bias for all comparisons are below 3 and 5 percent respectively after matching (Table 3). These are the standard benchmarks suggested by Caliendo & Kopeinig (2008). Table 3 further shows that for all comparisons, the Pseudo-R2 values from the estimation of propensity score after matching become lower than that before matching, and the P-values of likelihood ratio tests are non-significant after matching, indicating there are no systematic differences in the distribution of observable covariates between both groups. Table 3: Summary of PSM quality indicators from 5 nearest-neighbor matching Land title from the government versus control group Before matching After matching 12.5 11.0 0.062 0.000 10.3 9.8 0.033 0.000 7.7 11.8 0.06 0.000 10 7.4 0.032 0.000 1.4 1.1 0.001 0.999 0.8 0.6 0.000 1.00 1.8 4.8 0.002 0.628 0.7 0.5 0.001 0.988 Matching quality indicators Mean absolute bias (%) Median absolute bias (%) Pseudo R2 P-value of LR Matching quality indicators Mean absolute bias (%) Median absolute bias (%) Pseudo R2 P-value of LR Matching quality indicators Mean absolute bias (%) Median absolute bias (%) Pseudo R2 P-value of LR Land title from local authority versus control group Before matching After matching Land title from the government versus land title from local authority Before matching After matching General land certificate versus control group Before matching After matching Matching quality indicators Mean absolute bias (%) Median absolute bias (%) Pseudo R2 P-value of LR Source: Calculation based on CSES 2009 to 2014 Note: LR: Livelihood ratio. 34 Furthermore, the visual comparison of the distribution of propensity scores between treatment and controls before and after matching also informs us about the quality of matching. Figures 2, 3, 4 and 5 of the appendix illustrate that there is bias in the distribution of propensity score between the treatment and comparison groups before matching. After matching, on the other hand, there is almost perfect overlapping in the distribution of estimated propensity score between the treatment and control plots for every set of comparisons, suggesting that I have good matches. Also, following each matching, I could identify the common support area (matched sample), and the number of plots that fell in off-support areas and in the matched samples for the four sets of comparisons. The plots in the off-support areas are not included in the matched sample for empirical analysis. These are illustrated in Table 4. The details from test of matching quality can found in Tables 10, 11, 12 and 13 of the appendix. The figures after matching are weighted by the propensity score weights, and they are based on the common support observations that have propensity score weight. The good matches are given by the observations with propensity score weight (Khandker et al., 2010; Cerulli, 2015). The columns reporting the number of observations having a propensity score weight are the ones that are used in our regressions. 35 Table 4: Number of observations in common support region for each matching Sample Untreated Treated Total Sample Untreated Treated Total On support Off support 0 188 188 Land title from the government versus control group Total 9,434 3,773 13,207 Land title from local authority versus control group Total 9,434 5,003 14,437 9,434 3,585 13,019 9,434 4,753 14,187 Land title from the government versus land title from local authority 9,434 4,753 14,187 9,434 3,585 13,019 0 250 250 Off support On support On support and with propensity score weight On support and with propensity score weight Sample Semi-formal Formal Total On support Off support Total 5,003 3,773 8,776 General land certificate versus control group 5,003 3,585 8,588 0 188 188 5,003 3,585 8,588 On support and with propensity score weight Off support Sample Untreated Treated Total Source: Calculation based on CSES 2009 to 2014 Total 9,434 8,776 18,210 0 438 438 On support 9,434 8,338 17,772 On support and with propensity score weight 9,434 8,338 17,772 2.6.2. Regressions on the matched samples This section focuses on the empirical findings and their discussion. Before proceeding to the regression, it is worth seeing the mean values of the outcome variables by group of plots for (1) the whole sample before matching and (2) the common support observations with propensity score weights, which are the ones our regressions rely on. These figures for the sample before matching are reported in Tables 5 and 6, respectively. 36 Table 5: Average outcome variables by group of plots (before matching) Land title from the government 215.67 Fertilizer expense4 (‘000’ Riels/ha) Fertilizer adoption (dichotomous variable) Manure adoption (dichotomous variable) Yield (tons/ha) Source: Calculation based on CSES 2009 to 2014 0.68 2.23 0.88 land title from local authority 181.48 General land title 196.18 Control group 157.73 0.79 0.58 2.27 0.83 0.62 2.25 0.71 0.54 2.13 Table 6: Average outcome variables by group of households (the common support observations with propensity score weights) Land title from the government versus control Land title from the government versus land title from local land title from local authority versus control General land title versus control group group group T C T C 210.71 160.31 176.22 160.5 0 0.73 Fertilizer expense Fertilizer adoption Manure 0.61 adoption Yield 2.20 Source: Calculation based on CSES 2009 to 2014 0.53 2.16 0.56 2.14 0.65 2.24 0.73 0.78 0.87 authority Formal Semi-formal 215.71 180.68 0.88 0.64 2.29 0.79 0.61 2.22 T C 192.4 161.57 0.82 0.74 0.63 2.21 0.55 2.16 The details from each regression can be found in Table 14, 15, 16 and 17 of the appendix. Because the tables are long, I report only the results for the land title category. The results for other variables that I controlled for in the regressions can be found in the appendix. Not only did these regressions use the matched samples, they are also weighted by the propensity weights obtained from propensity scores, as suggested by Khandker et al. (2010), so that treatment and comparison groups are comparable in terms of their observable characteristics. Also, the standard error is clustered at village level, and I controlled for the heterogeneity across the villages using village 4 In real terms 37 fixed effects (village-level dummy variables). The standard error of each regression is clustered at village level so as to get the robust standard error for making inference. The regression results for the impact of land titling are reported in Table 7. It should be noted that the number of observations for probit regressions significantly dropped when I included village dummies. There are no village-specific variables in these regressions, because I already controlled for differences in village characteristics with the village dummies. The coefficients on the land titling for probit regressions are reported in terms of marginal probability effects, which is the common practice for interpreting the results from either probit or logit regression (Baum, 2006). With marginal probability effects, the interpretation becomes as simple as that for a linear regression. That is, a parameter estimate is the expected probability that a unit change in variable X will result in the outcome variable Y equaling 1, with other independent variables held fixed. Neither semi-formal nor formal land certificate has a statistically significant effect on fertilizer expenditure (Table 7). Also, average expenditure on fertilizer of the plots with government title is not significantly different from that of plots with semi-formal certificate issued by the local authority. Further, results presented in Table 7 show that a general land title (formal from the government or semi-formal from the local authority) does not have a statistically significant impact on fertilizer expenditure. Thus, our findings reveal that land titling has no significant effect on fertilizer expenditure. In contrast, for all sets of comparisons of land title vs. control, the point estimates for dichotomous adoption variables are statistically significant. As can be seen from Table 7, for instance, the average adoption rate of chemical fertilizer of plots with a formal land title is around 7 percent higher than those of the control plots, though it is statistically significant at 10 percent level. Also, the impact for manure adoption rate is around 9 percent and it is statistically significant 38 at 5 percent level. In addition, estimates of the effect of semi-formal land title are approximately 5 percent for fertilizer and 6 percent for manure. Table 7: Impacts of land titling Variables OLS Formal land title Observations R-squared Semi-formal ltitle Observations R-squared Formal land title Observations R-squared Fertilizer expense 6.8680 (10.5923) 13,019 0.5566 5.6368 (5.8038) 14,187 0.5668 -4.8266 (12.2486) 8,588 0.5634 Land title from the government versus control group (Marginal effects) (Marginal effects) Probit regression Probit regression Fertilizer adoption 0.0737* (0.0436) 6,950 Manure adoption 0.0867** (0.0410) 10,665 Land title from local authority versus control group 0.0634*** (0.0178) 11,916 0.0541** (0.0221) 7,723 0.0052 (0.0418) 4,017 0.0556* (0.0337) 6,650 0.0652*** (0.0168) 15,116 OLS yield 0.0491 (0.0762) 13,019 0.5676 0.0238 (0.0324) 14,187 0.5888 0.0407 (0.0772) 8,588 0.6012 0.0255 (0.0301) 17,772 0.5575 Land title from the government versus land title from local authority General land certificate versus control group General land title Observations R-squared Source: Calculation based on CSES 2009 to 2014 Notes: (1) Clustered robust standard errors in parentheses (2) *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1 5.5064 (5.0396) 17,772 0.5400 0.0527*** (0.0197) 9,771 The third set of comparisons reveals that the manure adoption rate of a plot with government title is around 6 percent higher than that for the plot with certificate from local authority, at 10 percent significance level. This result indicates that formal land titling is likely to play a more important role than semi-formal titling in a longer term of soil improvement. This is because manure has benefits that last more than one season by adding organic substance to soil, but fertilizer has a shorter duration of benefits (Motavalli et al., 1994). 39 The empirical results show that both types of land title have positive and significant impact on the adoption of both chemical fertilizer and manure in Cambodia, and this is partially consistent with the previous studies by Markussen (2008) and Thin (2012), whose land title variable is only defined as a paper to certify land rights in general. Our results show that there is no significant effect of land titling on rice yield, which is not in line with findings by Markussen (2008) and Thin (2012) using the Cambodia-Socio-economic Survey (CSES) 2004. Regarding the impact of land titling on the adoption of fertilizer and manure, our finding is similar to the studies in other countries; for example, Li, Rozelle, & Brandt (1998) empirically showed a positive effect of the length of tenure and use of organic manure and phosphate fertilizer in maize production in rural northeast China. Additionally, Nguyen, Bauer, & Grote (2016) also found that land tenure security has a positive impact on manure use in the northern uplands of Vietnam. The insignificant effect of land titling on fertilizer expenditure indicates that although land titling positively affects the farmers’ decision to apply the productivity-enhancing and soil- improving inputs, i.e. fertilizer and manure, it does not significantly influence the extent of the fertilizer expenditure. This finding seems to be in line with a qualitative study about the political economy of land registration in Cambodia by So (2009) indicating that some farmers claim ownership by utilizing the land for farming, regardless of land titling, as long as they occupy the land. A possible explanation from the literature is that land rights play less important roles in short term investment such as expenditure for fertilizer (Fenske, 2011). Also, the study does not show any productivity effect and this can be explained by the insignificant impact of land titling on the extent of the fertilizer expenditure. The finding tends to be similar to that from a study in Indonesia by Suyanto, Tomich, & Otsuka (2001) as they found that land titling has no significant effect on the management efficiency of paddy production. Their 40 results suggested that with secure land ownership farmers cultivating long-term crops such as fruit trees are more likely than the ones cultivating short-term crops (e.g., rice) to invest in their land. Unfortunately, the sub-sample for long-term crops in our dataset is so small that it does not have enough statistical power for us to conduct the empirical analysis. This is because Cambodia’s agriculture is dominated by rice farming which accounts for the substantial share of cultivated land. Hence, this is a potential gap for further studies in Cambodia to look at the impact of land titling on the extent of the land investment for long-term or high-value crops, if the data about this kind of farming with sufficient sample size is available. 2.7. Conclusion and policy implications This study provides evidence about the impact of land titling by its type, which differs according to the formality or its record in the cadastral register of the Ministry of Land Management, Urban Planning and Construction. Additionally, this article aims to add to the literature on land titling and adoption of fertilizers by documenting the impact of land title on the adoption of chemical fertilizer and manure in Cambodia. I use propensity score matching (PSM) and regressions on matched samples by controlling village heterogeneity. The sample size of our dataset is 18,210 plots (12,142 households) in pooled cross-sectional data from a nationally representative household survey. The data come from the Cambodia Socio-Economic Survey (CSES), collected in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014 by the National Institute of Statistics (NIS) of Cambodia. The empirical results suggest that both types of land title have a positive and significant impact on the adoption of chemical fertilizer and manure, but the impact of formal land titling on manure adoption is higher than that of semi-formal titling. Nonetheless, the productivity impact of land titling is insignificant. Overall, the impact of 41 formal land titling is comparable to that of informal titling, except for the effect on manure adoption. This study used data for the entire country and did not address the possibility that land title has different impacts in different locations. For example, it may be that a title makes a greater difference in locations where agriculture is more commercialized and land is more valuable, perhaps closer to cities. This is an issue to address in subsequent studies. In addition, there is no information on the year of receiving the land title, which is an important variable indicating the length of tenure, which has a positive effect on the use manure and fertilizer in literature (Li, Rozelle, & Brandt, 1998). For instance, a plot with title issued ten years before the household survey would yield more productivity impact than one with title received a few months before that period. This is a limitation of this study that needs to be addressed in subsequent studies. The conceptual framework hypothesizes that land title from either the central government or a local government authority increases use of inputs and farm investment, leading to the improvements in soil fertility and productivity. The empirical evidence confirms that the predictions are correct in a sense that land title increases probability of using fertilizer and manure. Also, the finding that formal land titling is likely to play a more important role than semi-formal titling in a longer term of soil improvement is consistent with what the conceptual framework hypothesized, because the former provides more secure land rights than the latter. However, the framework does not accurately predict the impact of land titling on fertilizer expenditure and productivity. The insignificant effect of land titling on rice productivity implies that land tilting may not be essential for short-term crops such as rice. Additionally, the study suggests that land titling is not a problem for rice farmers, so the government has other priorities to improve rice productivity. 42 Since the focus of this study is the impact of land titling, the priorities for the government are beyond the scope of this essay and should be examined in further studies. These empirical findings lead to various policy implications. First, formal and semi-formal titles differ very little in their effect on input use and yields, so it is unlikely that most farmers will be willing to invest in a title under sporadic land titling. If farmers have to bear the cost of land titling they will more likely pursue semi-formal titling. However, in the long term the formal land title will be more secure. Even if it has no productivity impact for rice farming, we should not conclude that it is not important, because it may still play an important role in a longer-term farm investment for high value crops such as pepper and rubber. Unfortunately, our data do not let us draw conclusions in this regard and this is a potential topic for further studies. Further, the long term security can reduce the likelihood of land grabbing, which would severely affect the livelihood of the rural farm households (Markussen, 2008; So, 2009). Systematic land registration is the more likely approach to promote it due to its lower cost to farmers relative to sporadic land registration. Alternatively, the government should continue reducing the cost of land transfer and simplifying the procedure in order for landholders to afford the land transfer and registration through the formal system, and it also allows central database of the cadastral offices to be updated, as suggested by Thin (2012) and So (2009). 43 APPENDICES 44 Appendix A: Extra tables and figures for the empirical analysis Table 8: Definitions of outcome variables and covariates Variables Outcome variables fertilizer adopt_fert Definitions cost of chemical fertilizer in '000' Riels/ha (in real terms) 1 if fertilizer was applied on the plot in either the last completed dry season, wet season or both seasons. 1 if manure was used on that plot in either the last completed dry season, wet season or both seasons. yield (tons/ha) defined as output divided by harvested area plot size in hectare (physical size) 1: If plot is close to irrigation in both wet and dry seasons 1: if plot was used for both wet- and dry-season rice 1: if plot was for only dry-season rice 1: if farmers have had conflict about this plot the number of years that plot has been acquired adopt_manure yield Covariates for Matching plot_size dum_bothirrigat dum_wetdryplot dum_dryplot dum_conflict year_acquisition dum_acquisition2 1: if the plot was acquired by inheritance dum_acquisition3 1: if the plot was bought from others dum_acquisition4 1: if the plot was acquired by clearing forest for free hh_age hh15_64 dum_married dumhh_female dum_literate assetvalue dum_telev dum_cellp dum_motor dum_genar dum_htrac dum_wpump dum_electrif dum_notoilet dumwage dumlivestock Age of household head (years) household member aged from 15 to 64 1 if head of household is married 1 if head of household is female 1: if head of household could read and write; 0 otherwise total asset value in '0000' riels (in real terms) 1: if household has television 1: if household has cell phone 1: if household has motorbike 1: if household has generator 1: if household has hand tractor 1: if household has water pump 1: if household has access to public-provided electrify 1: if there is no toilet for the household 1: if one of the HH members involved in wage employment 1: if HH engaged in livestock production in the past 12 months 45 1: if HH engaged in non-farm act. in the past 12 months (e.g. tuk tuk driver) 1: if HH received income from other sources such as remittance, pensions. 1: if HH have outstanding loans 1: if year= 2010 1: if year= 2011 1: if year= 2012 1: if year= 2013 1: if year= 2014 dumother_inc dum_loan dumyear2 dumyear3 dumyear4 dumyear5 dumyear6 Additional control variables for yield regression other_input fertilizer adopt_manure total input cost, excluding fertilizer and manure (in real terms) cost of chemical fertilizer in '000' Riels/ha (in real terms) 1 if manure was used on that plot Table 8 (cont’d) dumnon_arg 46 Semi-formal 181.476 (185.404) Formal 215.666 (178.226) Table 9: Descriptive statistics for treatment and control plots Variables fertilizer adopt_fert adopt_manure yield plot_size dum_bothirrigate dum_wetdryplot dum_dryplot dum_conflict age_acquisition dum_acquisition2 dum_acquisition3 dum_acquisition4 hh_age hh15_64 dum_married dumhh_female dum_literate assetvalue dum_telev 0.883 (0.322) 0.680 (0.467) 2.233 (1.088) 0.689 (0.865) 0.044 (0.206) 0.031 (0.174) 0.019 (0.136) 0.014 (0.117) 21.583 (9.682) 0.430 (0.495) 0.087 (0.282) 0.014 (0.117) 47.207 (13.588) 3.115 (1.437) 0.826 (0.379) 0.177 (0.382) 0.768 (0.422) 399.210 (1421.518) 0.793 (0.405) 0.579 (0.494) 2.265 (1.226) 0.981 (1.206) 0.054 (0.226) 0.028 (0.164) 0.110 (0.312) 0.020 (0.139) 20.034 (10.154) 0.368 (0.482) 0.210 (0.407) 0.027 (0.162) 47.423 (13.347) 3.191 (1.474) 0.836 (0.371) 0.167 (0.373) 0.735 (0.441) 372.507 (1479.023) 0.665 0.642 47 Control Whole sample 157.729 (175.946) 176.258 (180.463) 0.713 (0.452) 0.541 (0.498) 2.126 (1.174) 0.864 (1.030) 0.049 (0.216) 0.018 (0.134) 0.081 (0.273) 0.024 (0.153) 19.233 (10.355) 0.546 (0.498) 0.075 (0.264) 0.069 (0.253) 44.825 (13.482) 3.075 (1.450) 0.848 (0.359) 0.156 (0.363) 0.685 (0.464) 277.379 (637.821) 0.770 (0.421) 0.580 (0.494) 2.187 (1.173) 0.860 (1.056) 0.049 (0.217) 0.024 (0.152) 0.076 (0.265) 0.021 (0.143) 19.940 (10.204) 0.473 (0.499) 0.115 (0.319) 0.046 (0.209) 46.032 (13.524) 3.115 (1.455) 0.840 (0.366) 0.164 (0.370) 0.716 (0.451) 328.757 (1110.481) 0.532 0.589 (0.499) 0.512 0.512 (0.500) 0.521 (0.500) 0.022 (0.148) 0.148 (0.355) 0.170 (0.419) 0.149 (0.356) 0.706 (0.455) 0.411 (0.492) 0.874 (0.332) 0.224 (0.417) 0.539 (0.498) 0.427 (0.495) 9,434 (0.492) 0.556 0.556 (0.497) 0.559 (0.497) 0.025 (0.157) 0.153 (0.360) 0.197 (0.398) 0.186 (0.389) 0.653 (0.476) 0.426 (0.494) 0.862 (0.332) 0.229 (0.420) 0.568 (0.495) 0.403 (0.491) 18,210 Table 9 (cont’d) dum_cellp dum_motor dum_genar dum_htrac dum_wpump dum_electrif dum_notoilet dumwage dumlivestock dumnon_arg dumother_inc dum_loan Number of plots Source: Calculation based on CSES 2009 to 2014 Note: standard deviations in parentheses (0.472) 0.611 (0.488) (0.488) 0.596 (0.491) 0.028 (0.165) 0.145 (0.352) 0.227 (0.419) 0.241 (0.428) 0.570 (0.495) 0.467 (0.499) 0.879 (0.326) 0.241 (0.428) 0.583 (0.493) 0.418 (0.493) 3,773 (0.480) 0.598 (0.490) (0.490) 0.604 (0.489) 0.029 (0.167) 0.167 (0.373) 0.227 (0.419) 0.216 0.411) 0.615 (0.487) 0.423 (0.494) 0.825 (0.380) 0.228 (0.419) 0.612 (0.487) 0.347 (0.476) 5,003 48 Figure 2: Distribution of propensity scores for matching between treatment group (land title from the government) and control group Kernel density estimate Kernel density estimate 3 3 Before match After match 2 y t i s n e D 1 0 0 .2 .8 psmatch2: Propensity Score .4 .6 2 y t i s n e D 1 1 0 0 .8 .2 psmatch2: Propensity Score .4 .6 1 Kernel density estimate kdensity _pscore Kernel density estimate kdensity _pscore kernel = epanechnikov, bandwidth = 0.0224 kernel = epanechnikov, bandwidth = 0.0202 Source: Calculation based on CSES 2009 to 2014 Figure 3: Distribution of propensity scores for matching between treatment group (land title from the local authority) and control group Kernel density estimate Kernel density estimate Before match 3 After match 2 y t i s n e D 1 1 0 0 .2 .8 psmatch2: Propensity Score .6 .4 .2 .8 psmatch2: Propensity Score .4 .6 3 2 y t i s n e D 1 0 0 Kernel density estimate kdensity _pscore Kernel density estimate kdensity _pscore kernel = epanechnikov, bandwidth = 0.0250 kernel = epanechnikov, bandwidth = 0.0225 Source: Calculation based on CSES 2009 to 2014 49 1 Figure 4: Distribution of propensity scores for matching between treatment group (land title from the government) and land title from the local authority Kernel density estimate Kernel density estimate 4 3 y t i s n e D 2 1 0 0 Before match After match 4 3 y t i s n e D 2 1 .2 .4 psmatch2: Propensity Score .6 .8 0 0 .2 psmatch2: Propensity Score .4 .6 .8 Kernel density estimate kdensity _pscore Kernel density estimate kdensity _pscore kernel = epanechnikov, bandwidth = 0.0188 kernel = epanechnikov, bandwidth = 0.0182 Source: Calculation based on CSES 2009 to 2014 Figure 5: Distribution of propensity scores for matching between treatment group ( general land title) and land title from the local authority Kernel density estimate Kernel density estimate 3 3 Before match After match 2 y t i s n e D 1 0 0 2 y t i s n e D 1 1 0 0 .2 .8 psmatch2: Propensity Score .4 .6 .2 .8 psmatch2: Propensity Score .4 .6 Kernel density estimate kdensity _pscore Kernel density estimate kdensity _pscore kernel = epanechnikov, bandwidth = 0.0197 kernel = epanechnikov, bandwidth = 0.0184 Source: Calculation based on CSES 2009 to 2014 50 1 Table 10: Test of matching quality (land title from the government versus control group) T-stat Variables Sample Unmatched Unmatched plot_size dum_bothirrigat Unmatched dum_wetdryplot Matched Unmatched dum_dryplot Matched Unmatched dum_conflict Matched Unmatched age_acquisition Matched dum_acquisition2 Unmatched Matched dum_acquisition3 Unmatched Matched dum_acquisition4 Unmatched Matched Unmatched hh_age Matched Unmatched hh15_64 Matched Unmatched dum_married Matched dumhh_female Unmatched Matched dum_literate assetvalue dum_telev dum_cellp dum_motor dum_genar dum_htrac dum_wpump Matched Unmatched Matched Unmatched Matched Unmatched Matched Unmatched Matched Unmatched Matched Unmatched Matched Unmatched Treated Control %bias %reduc. |bias| 85.5 61.5 96.6 98.3 86.4 92.2 98.2 52.7 99.9 96.9 61.6 74.9 80.7 92.5 93.5 92.1 88.0 78.2 30.9 -69.9 0.68905 0.86371 Matched 0.69602 0.72133 0.04426 0.04918 Matched 0.03905 0.04095 0.03127 0.01823 0.02538 0.02583 0.01882 0.08098 0.01953 0.02059 0.01378 0.02406 0.0145 0.01311 21.583 19.233 21.233 21.049 0.43043 0.54622 0.4516 0.44948 0.08693 0.07537 0.08619 0.09166 0.01378 0.06879 0.0145 0.01456 44.825 47.207 46.641 46.715 3.0754 3.1153 3.1007 3.116 0.82613 0.8481 0.82706 0.83258 0.17731 0.15624 0.17573 0.17166 0.68518 0.759 0.76524 399.21 277.38 320.06 327.96 0.66472 0.53159 0.64798 0.65852 0.61065 0.51166 0.59414 0.60603 0.59555 0.52078 0.58243 0.59872 0.02783 0.02226 0.02678 0.02293 0.14524 0.14787 0.1431 0.14756 0.22661 0.17013 -18.4 -2.7 -2.3 -0.9 8.4 -0.3 -28.8 -0.5 -7.5 1.0 23.4 1.8 -23.3 0.4 4.2 -2.0 -27.9 -0.0 17.6 0.5 2.8 -1.1 -6.0 -1.5 5.7 1.1 18.7 -1.4 11.1 -0.7 27.4 -2.2 20.0 -2.4 15.1 -3.3 3.6 2.5 -0.7 -1.3 14.2 Unmatched 076835 -9.20*** -1.39 -1.20 -0.41 4.62*** -0.12 -13.35*** -0.32 -3.71*** 0.51 12.00*** 0.78 -12.09*** 0.18 2.23** -0.81 -12.82*** -0.02 9.15*** 0.23 1.43 -0.45 -3.13*** -0.62 2.97*** 0.46 9.54*** -0.62 6.79*** -0.47 14.06*** -0.94 10.35*** -1.03 7.81*** -1.40 1.90* 1.05 -0.38 -0.54 7.55*** 51 93.7 87.1 97.9 93.7 -3.5 57.2 95.3 90.3 -0.37 12.74*** -1.23 -15.13*** 0.25 5.95*** 0.30 0.83 0.72 2.09** -0.72 4.61*** -0.18 -0.96 0.08 Matched 0.20335 0.20692 -0.9 0.14851 23.6 0.22287 -3.0 0.70649 -28.6 0.59548 0.6 0.41064 11.4 0.45138 0.7 1.6 0.87386 1.7 0.88184 0.22398 4.0 -1.7 0.22398 8.9 0.53922 -0.4 0.57612 0.42739 -1.9 0.2 0.41808 Unmatched 0.24119 Matched 0.21088 Unmatched 0.57037 Matched 0.59833 Unmatched 0.46727 Matched 0.45495 Unmatched 0.87914 Matched 0.88731 Unmatched 0.24092 Matched 0.23933 Unmatched 0.58336 Matched 0.57406 Unmatched 0.41823 Matched 0.41897 Table 10 (cont’d) dum_electrif dum_notoilet dumwage dumlivestock dumnon_arg dumother_inc dum_loan Source: Calculation based on CSES 2009 to 2014. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1 52 Table 11: Test of matching quality (land title from local authority versus control group) Variables Treated Control %bias %reduc. Sample T-stat 6.14*** -0.66 1.25 0.29 3.76*** 0.57 5.69*** -0.06 -1.64 0.32 4.45*** -0.69 -20.69*** 0.06 23.99*** 0.21 -10.59*** 0.71 11.06*** 0.13 4.53*** -0.55 -1.95* 0.07 1.75* 0.31 6.28*** 0.13 5.38*** 0.45 12.80*** 0.17 9.99*** 0.47 9.58*** 0.48 2.41** -0.00 3.07*** 0.07 8.32*** plot_size dum_bothirrigat dum_wetdryplot dum_dryplot dum_conflict age_acquisition dum_acquisition2 dum_acquisition3 dum_acquisition4 hh_age hh15_64 dum_married dumhh_female dum_literate assetvalue dum_telev dum_cellp dum_motor dum_genar dum_htrac dum_wpump Unmatched Unmatched 0.98118 Matched 0.93051 0.05397 Matched 0.05323 0.02778 0.02546 0.10953 0.10141 0.01979 0.02062 20.034 20.393 0.36798 0.38712 0.21007 0.17 0.02698 0.0284 47.423 47.328 3.1909 3.1828 0.8357 0.83169 0.1675 0.17105 0.73536 0.72649 372.51 337.31 0.64181 0.62866 0.59844 0.58489 0.60384 0.59205 0.02878 0.02672 0.1673 0.16074 0.22706 Unmatched Matched Unmatched Matched Unmatched Matched Unmatched Matched Unmatched Matched Unmatched Matched Unmatched Matched Unmatched Matched Unmatched Matched Unmatched Matched Unmatched Matched Unmatched Matched Unmatched Matched Unmatched Matched Unmatched Matched Unmatched Matched Unmatched Matched Unmatched Matched Unmatched 10.5 -1.4 2.2 0.6 6.4 1.2 9.7 -0.1 -2.9 0.6 7.8 -1.4 -36.4 0.1 39.2 0.5 -19.7 1.1 19.4 0.3 7.9 -1.2 -3.4 0.1 3.1 0.6 11.1 0.3 8.4 0.5 22.5 0.4 17.5 1.0 16.8 1.0 4.1 0.0 5.3 0.2 14.3 0.86371 0.94599 0.04918 0.05188 0.01823 0.02365 0.08098 0.10179 0.02406 0.01969 19.233 20.537 0.54622 0.38653 0.07537 0.1684 0.06879 0.02605 44.825 47.294 3.0754 3.1999 0.8481 0.83114 0.15624 0.16869 0.68518 0.72527 277.38 331.05 0.53159 0.62693 0.51166 0.58018 0.52078 0.58717 0.02226 0.02672 0.14787 0.16019 0.17013 53 |bias| 86.8 71.9 81.1 98.7 78.3 82.0 99.7 98.8 94.4 98.7 85.2 95.6 79.1 97.6 93.4 98.4 94.6 94.1 100.0 97.2 3.0 17.5 1.8 -19.4 -0.6 2.5 0.9 -13.6 0.3 0.9 0.2 14.7 0.5 -16.5 -0.9 79.1 89.5 97.1 63.3 98.0 73.7 96.9 94.5 1.42 10.22*** 0.86 -11.19*** -0.27 1.45 0.45 -7.95*** 0.13 0.50 0.11 8.39*** 0.22 -9.39*** -0.45 Matched Unmatched Matched Unmatched Matched Unmatched Matched Unmatched Matched Unmatched Matched Unmatched Matched Unmatched Matched 0.20543 0.21734 0.14851 0.21567 0.196 0.20303 0.70649 0.61523 0.6332 0.63055 0.41064 0.42315 0.42083 0.42542 0.87386 0.8253 0.83535 0.83631 0.22398 0.22766 0.22668 0.22765 0.61183 0.53922 0.6032 060097 0.42739 0.34719 0.3562 0.36061 Table 11 (cont’d) dum_electrif dum_notoilet dumwage dumlivestock dumnon_arg dumother_inc dum_loan Source: Calculation based on CSES 2009 to 2014. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1 54 Table 12: Test of matching quality (land title from the government versus local authority) T-stat Variables Treated Control %bias %reduc. Sample Unmatched plot_size Matched Unmatched dum_bothirrigat Matched Unmatched dum_wetdryplot Matched Unmatched dum_dryplot Matched Unmatched dum_conflict Matched Unmatched age_acquisition Matched dum_acquisition2 Unmatched Matched dum_acquisition3 Unmatched Matched dum_acquisition4 Unmatched Matched Unmatched hh_age Matched Unmatched hh15_64 Matched Unmatched dum_married Matched dumhh_female Unmatched Matched Unmatched dum_literate Matched assetvalue Unmatched Matched Unmatched dum_telev Matched Unmatched dum_cellp Matched Unmatched dum_motor Matched Unmatched dum_genar Matched dum_htrac Unmatched Matched dum_wpump Unmatched -27.8 -4.2 -4.5 1.8 2.1 2.0 -37.7 -0.6 -4.7 -1.8 15.6 -2.3 12.8 1.8 -35.2 -0.1 -9.4 1.2 -1.6 -1.7 -5.2 0.4 -2.6 -0.9 2.6 0.2 7.6 -1.8 1.8 1.1 4.8 -4.0 2.5 -2.8 -1.7 -1.8 -0.6 -2.4 -6.1 -0.3 -0.1 0.68905 0.98118 0.68687 0.73139 0.04426 0.05397 0.04184 0.03794 0.03127 .02778 0.03096 0.0275 0.01882 0.10953 0.01869 0.02008 0.01378 0.01979 0.01311 0.01545 21.583 20.034 21.467 21.692 0.43043 0.36798 0.4318 0.42315 0.08693 0.21007 0.08954 0.08993 0.01378 0.02698 0.0145 0.01278 47.423 47.207 47.495 47.26 3.1909 3.1153 3.1166 3.1101 0.82613 0.8357 0.82315 0.82667 0.17731 0.1675 0.17908 0.17819 0.76835 0.73536 0.75983 0.76764 399.21 372.51 366.68 350.77 0.66472 0.64181 0.65328 0.67219 0.61065 0.59844 0.59805 0.61177 0.58996 0.60384 0.60384 0.599 0.02783 0.02878 0.02594 0.02996 0.14524 0.1673 0.14282 0.14399 0.22661 0.22706 55 |bias| 84.8 59.8 0.9 98.5 61.0 85.5 86.2 99.7 86.9 -8.8 91.4 63.3 90.9 76.3 40.4 17.4 -12.4 -9.0 -321.3 94.7 -12.63*** -2.68*** -2.07** 0.84 0.96 0.87 -16.69*** -0.43 -2.14** -0.84 7.22*** -0.98 5.94*** 0.74 -15.92*** -0.06 -4.24*** 0.63 -0.74 -0.73 -2.40** 0.19 -1.19 -0.39 1.21 0.10 3.53** -0.78 0.85 0.70 2.23** -1.69* 1.16 -1.19 -0.78 -0.78 -0.27 -1.03 -2.81*** -0.14 -0.05 -2.3 6.1 -1.6 -9.1 2.0 8.9 -2.0 15.2 0.7 3.1 -2.3 -5.8 1.6 14.7 -1.7 -1978.4 73.3 77.9 77.1 95.6 25.9 71.8 88.5 -0.97 2.83*** -0.68 -4.24*** 0.85 4.12*** -0.86 6.98*** 0.30 1.45 -0.98 -2.70*** 0.69 6.81*** -0.70 Matched Unmatched Matched Unmatched Matched Unmatched Matched Unmatched Matched Unmatched Matched Unmatched Matched Unmatched Matched 0.21339 0.22282 0.24119 0.21567 0.2265 0.23331 0.57037 0.61523 0.59191 0.58198 0.46727 0.42315 0.45579 0.46589 0.8253 0.87914 0.87364 0.8713 0.24092 0.22766 0.23152 0.24134 0.58336 0.61183 0.59079 0.58276 0.41823 0.34719 0.3947 0.40285 Table 12 (cont’d) dum_electrif dum_notoilet dumwage dumlivestock dumnon_arg dumother_inc dum_loan Source: Calculation based on CSES 2009 to 2014. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1 56 Table 13: Test of matching quality (general land title versus control group) Variables Treated Control %bias Sample %reduc. Unmatched plot_size Matched Unmatched dum_bothirrigat Matched Unmatched dum_wetdryplot Matched Unmatched dum_dryplot Matched Unmatched dum_conflict Matched Unmatched age_acquisition Matched dum_acquisition2 Unmatched Matched dum_acquisition3 Unmatched Matched dum_acquisition4 Unmatched Matched Unmatched hh_age Matched Unmatched hh15_64 Matched Unmatched dum_married Matched dumhh_female Unmatched Matched Unmatched dum_literate Matched assetvalue Unmatched Matched Unmatched dum_telev Matched Unmatched dum_cellp Matched Unmatched dum_motor Matched Unmatched dum_genar Matched dum_htrac Unmatched Matched dum_wpump Unmatched -0.8 0.5 0.3 0.8 7.3 0.9 -3.9 -0.1 -4.8 -0.3 14.4 -0.3 -30.7 -2.7 25.7 1.9 -23.0 2.3 18.6 2.3 5.7 2.3 -4.5 0.2 4.2 -0.3 14.3 -0.6 9.5 1.5 24.6 -0.4 18.6 0.4 16.1 1.0 3.9 0.5 2.8 0.8 14.3 0.85559 0.84274 0.04979 0.04713 0.02928 0.02423 0.07053 0.07232 0.01721 0.01751 20.7 20.811 0.39483 0.41521 0.15713 0.12797 0.02131 0.02159 47.33 47.145 3.1584 3.1544 0.83159 0.8297 0.17172 0.1727 0.74954 0.73915 383.99 337.08 0.65166 0.6354 0.60369 0.58947 0.60027 0.58779 0.02837 0.02663 0.15782 0.15363 0.22687 0.86371 0.8379 0.04918 0.04533 0.01823 0.02288 0.08098 0.07258 0.02406 0.01792 19.233 20.844 0.54622 0.42871 0.07537 0.1218 0.06879 0.01679 44.825 46.84 3.0754 3.1208 0.8481 0.82881 0.15624 0.17395 0.68518 0.74181 277.38 320.02 0.53159 0.6374 0.51166 0.58746 0.52078 0.58285 0.02226 0.02579 0.14787 0.15076 0.17013 57 |bias| 40.4 -194.4 87.8 97.5 94.1 97.7 91.1 92.5 89.9 87.8 59.6 94.6 91.9 95.9 84.0 98.3 97.8 93.8 86.3 71.1 T-stat -0.52 0.31 0.19 0.55 4.92*** 0.57 -2.66*** -0.07 -3.24*** -0.20 9.72*** -0.21 -20.68*** -1.77* 17.44*** 0.229 -15.40*** 2.26** 12.54*** 1.47 3.85*** 1.47 -3.04*** 0.15 2.82*** -0.21 9.65*** -0.39 6.48*** 1.42 16.58*** -0.27 12.54*** 0.26 10.83*** 0.65 2.63*** 0.34 1.86* 0.52 9.63*** 97.0 95.6 97.2 97.5 72.0 63.7 99.2 98.1 0.27 13.60*** 0.55 -15.77*** 0.40 4.29*** 0.10 -4.96*** 1.31 1.51 0.52 8.23*** 0.06 -6.83*** -0.13 0.21264 0.22664 0.20724 0.59594 0.61897 0.44211 0.43871 0.84845 0.86076 0.23336 0.23183 0.59959 0.59139 0.37773 0.38606 0.21091 0.14851 0.20381 0.70649 0.61593 0.41064 0.43792 0.87386 0.85363 0.22398 0.22842 0.53922 0.59093 0.42739 0.38702 0.4 20.1 0.9 -23.4 0.6 6.4 0.2 -7.4 2.1 2.2 0.8 12.2 0.1 -10.1 -0.2 Matched Unmatched Matched Unmatched Matched Unmatched Matched Unmatched Matched Unmatched Matched Unmatched Matched Unmatched Matched Table 13 (cont’d) dum_electrif dum_notoilet dumwage dumlivestock dumnon_arg dumother_inc dum_loan Source: Calculation based on CSES 2009 to 2014. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1 58 Table 14: Impact of formal land title OLS Fertilizer exp. Variables Formal land title plot_size dum_bothirrigat dum_wetdryplot dum_dryplot dum_conflict age_acquisition hh_age hh15_64 dum_married dumhh_female dum_literate assetvalue dum_telev dum_cellp dum_motor dum_genar dum_htrac dum_wpump dum_electrif 6.8680 (10.5923) -10.1827*** (2.2963) 15.2472 (11.5449) 59.2753*** (17.5123) 108.9169*** (25.7502) 4.1914 (16.0069) -0.2007 (0.2419) -0.3163 (0.2011) -0.7002 (1.6595) 2.1229 (8.4352) -1.5129 (9.0382) 14.4746** (6.6905) -0.0052** (0.0026) 5.3516 (4.5463) 2.8521 (5.2912) 8.6025* (4.6349) -11.1036 (14.6692) 6.9782 (6.5587) 10.4308** (5.2983) -13.1271 (10.7553) Probit regression Manure adopt. (Marginal effects) 0.0867** (0.0410) -0.0015 (0.0086) 0.0949** (0.0461) 0.0260 (0.0403) -0.3726*** (0.0731) -0.0500 (0.0420) 0.0017** (0.0008) -0.0004 (0.0006) 0.0160*** (0.0052) -0.0011 (0.0316) -0.0297 (0.0320) -0.0158 (0.0132) 0.0000 (0.0000) 0.0287* (0.0148) -0.0348** (0.0158) 0.0144 (0.0128) 0.0020 (0.0424) -0.0196 (0.0186) 0.0182 (0.0244) -0.0118 (0.0255) Probit regression Fertilizer adopt. (Marginal effects) 0.0737* (0.0436) 0.0179* (0.0106) -0.0697* (0.0415) 0.2952*** (0.0923) 0.3649*** (0.0405) 0.0134 (0.0559) -0.0001 (0.0009) -0.0010 (0.0006) -0.0059 (0.0054) -0.0048 (0.0297) -0.0536* (0.0305) -0.0020 (0.0181) 0.0000 (0.0000) 0.0186 (0.0208) 0.0144 (0.0163) 0.0487*** (0.0164) 0.0605 (0.0428) -0.0220 (0.0237) 0.0181 (0.0171) -0.0568 (0.0360) 59 OLS yield 0.0491 (0.0762) -0.0893*** (0.0227) 0.0391 (0.0650) 0.4405*** (0.0999) 0.6236*** (0.1411) 0.1940 (0.1250) -0.0002 (0.0018) -0.0007 (0.0011) 0.0003 (0.0088) 0.0338 (0.0569) -0.0054 (0.0616) 0.0011 (0.0321) 0.0000* (0.0000) 0.0206 (0.0269) -0.0120 (0.0286) 0.0487 (0.0316) 0.0303 (0.0746) 0.0455 (0.0395) 0.0656** (0.0324) 0.0350 (0.0562) -14.9829*** -0.0253 (0.0213) -0.0396** (0.0163) 0.0150 (0.0289) -0.0194 (0.0194) 0.0011 (0.0182) 0.0116 (0.0140) 0.0775** (0.0392) 0.0766 (0.0473) 0.3333*** (0.0736) 0.4185*** (0.0734) 0.5268*** (0.0859) 3.8643 (6.3862) -1.3608 (4.5148) 4.1903 (6.7801) 7.5285 (6.8104) Table 14 (cont’d) dum_notoilet dumwage dumlivestock dumnon_arg dumother_inc dum_loan dumyear2 dumyear3 dumyear4 dumyear5 dumyear6 other_input fertilizer adopt_manure Constant Observations R-squared Notes: (1) Clustered robust standard errors in parentheses (2) *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1 (5.3871) 4.4620 (4.1194) -14.4666 (12.5851) 14.9893 (12.4383) 71.7013*** (25.0404) 86.3969*** (24.1509) 74.1004*** (22.9751) 386.7443*** (15.1653) 13,019 0.5566 (3) Village dummies are controlled for -0.0083 (0.0153) -0.0166 (0.0167) 0.2718*** (0.0262) -0.0590*** (0.0160) 0.0093 (0.0196) -0.0398*** (0.0130) 0.0197 (0.0361) -0.0255 (0.0321) -0.0175 (0.0973) -0.0822 (0.0805) -0.1025 (0.0806) 0.0363 (0.0282) -0.0075 (0.0267) 0.0720* (0.0436) -0.0424 (0.0334) 0.0474 (0.0339) -0.1190*** (0.0270) -0.0900 (0.0924) -0.0893 (0.0687) -0.2090 (0.1669) -0.1699 (0.1834) -0.0066 (0.1424) 0.0007*** (0.0001) 0.0013*** (0.0001) 0.0635** (0.0309) 2.9986*** (0.1237) 13,019 0.5676 6,950 10,665 60 -12.3181*** 5.6368 (5.8038) Table 15: Impact of semi-formal land title Variables Semi-formal title plot_size dum_bothirrigat dum_wetdryplot dum_dryplot dum_conflict age_acquisition hh_age hh15_64 dum_married dumhh_female dum_literate assetvalue dum_telev dum_cellp dum_motor dum_genar dum_htrac dum_wpump dum_electrif (1.7220) 29.2406** (13.6819) 25.2349 (22.3045) 90.1600*** (13.1171) 2.8245 (8.2777) -0.3779* (0.1964) -0.1745 (0.1360) -1.0501 (1.2107) 3.3411 (7.9468) 7.3551 (7.2160) 3.7288 (3.6038) -0.0069*** (0.0023) 6.3520* (3.8113) 4.5242 (4.4017) 5.6534 (3.8361) 1.8350 (8.9091) 7.8880 (5.5110) 11.5671** (4.6246) 6.9607 (7.4956) 0.0541** (0.0221) 0.0090 (0.0070) -0.0454 (0.0645) 0.3506*** (0.0938) 0.3099*** (0.0496) -0.0326 (0.0355) 0.0005 (0.0008) -0.0012** (0.0006) -0.0008 (0.0044) 0.0155 (0.0291) 0.0276 (0.0293) 0.0409*** (0.0140) -0.0000 (0.0000) 0.0165 (0.0139) -0.0039 (0.0156) 0.0297** (0.0150) 0.0368 (0.0430) 0.0063 (0.0243) 0.0287 (0.0195) 0.0258 (0.0299) 61 OLS Probit regression Fertilizer exp. Fertilizer adopt. Manure adopt. (Marginal effects) (Marginal effects) Probit regression OLS yield 0.0238 (0.0324) -0.0950*** (0.0119) -0.0786 (0.0687) 0.3392*** (0.0852) 0.4781*** (0.0743) 0.1238* (0.0633) 0.0002 (0.0013) -0.0018* (0.0010) 0.0094 (0.0077) -0.0133 (0.0469) -0.0558 (0.0457) 0.0673*** (0.0242) 0.0000 (0.0000) -0.0009 (0.0244) -0.0208 (0.0267) 0.0308 (0.0245) 0.0056 (0.0703) 0.0838*** (0.0317) 0.0452 (0.0317) 0.0108 (0.0512) 0.0634*** (0.0178) 0.0010 (0.0055) -0.0277 (0.0369) -0.0104 (0.0456) -0.3782*** (0.0372) -0.0467 (0.0371) 0.0038*** (0.0008) -0.0009* (0.0005) 0.0144*** (0.0046) 0.0485* (0.0249) -0.0159 (0.0243) -0.0126 (0.0133) -0.0000 (0.0000) 0.0233** (0.0116) -0.0142 (0.0142) 0.0035 (0.0128) 0.0445 (0.0349) -0.0317* (0.0170) 0.0112 (0.0163) -0.0343 (0.0279) 0.0151 (0.0144) -0.0268** (0.0119) 0.2502*** (0.0194) 0.0002 (0.0141) -0.0195 (0.0150) -0.0334*** (0.0120) 0.0111 (0.0310) -0.0335 (0.0312) 0.0510 (0.0659) -0.0090 (0.0643) -0.1029 (0.0922) 0.0190 (0.0264) -0.0251 (0.0252) 0.0179 (0.0365) -0.0413 (0.0283) 0.0158 (0.0318) -0.0755*** (0.0207) -0.1429** (0.0655) -0.0136 (0.0728) 0.0581 (0.1468) -0.1218 (0.1252) 0.3030*** (0.1126) 0.0009*** (0.0001) 0.0012*** (0.0001) 0.0632** (0.0270) 3.2118*** (0.0997) 14,187 0.5888 7,723 11,916 -0.0108 (0.0149) -0.0252* (0.0131) 0.0215 (0.0201) 0.0030 (0.0155) -0.0130 (0.0182) -0.0057 (0.0125) 0.0837*** (0.0301) 0.1313*** (0.0335) 0.2469*** (0.0807) 0.3602*** (0.0879) 0.4397*** (0.1244) -0.3477 (4.2512) -4.6537 (3.4590) 2.4124 (4.7986) 4.8683 (4.2979) -6.6939 (4.9226) 6.8850* (3.8435) Table 15 (cont’d) dum_notoilet dumwage dumlivestock dumnon_arg dumother_inc dum_loan dumyear2 dumyear3 dumyear4 dumyear5 dumyear6 other_input fertilizer adopt_manure Constant Observations R-squared Notes: (1) Clustered robust standard errors in parentheses (2) *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1 -28.3339*** (10.9431) -7.3284 (12.0657) 24.3958 (36.0669) 45.1636 (41.8290) 49.4223* (25.6067) 399.9622*** (12.6403) 14,187 0.5668 (3) Village dummies are controlled for 62 Table 16: Formal land title versus semi-formal land title Probit regression OLS Probit regression Fertilizer exp. Fertilizer adopt. Manure adopt. (Marginal effects) (Marginal effects) Variables Formal land title plot_size dum_bothirrigat dum_wetdryplot dum_dryplot dum_conflict age_acquisition hh_age hh15_64 dum_married dumhh_female dum_literate assetvalue dum_telev dum_cellp dum_motor dum_genar dum_htrac dum_wpump dum_electrif -4.8266 (12.2486) -15.4065*** (2.8502) 22.8878 (17.8864) 38.4322 (23.7801) 123.1076*** (28.5167) -12.3067 (18.1017) -0.4087 (0.2899) -0.0665 (0.2192) -1.6183 (1.8266) 3.2480 (10.2623) 2.8703 (10.4246) 11.8697* (6.8640) -0.0015** (0.0006) 10.8084** (5.0098) 2.3420 (6.0019) 5.3818 (5.2341) -5.4824 (15.3972) 10.9882 (7.5765) 8.3647 (6.2115) 4.4593 (12.8568) OLS yield 0.0407 (0.0772) -0.1101*** (0.0202) 0.0560 (0.0856) 0.3551*** (0.1105) 0.8042*** (0.1719) 0.0505 (0.1015) -0.0026 (0.0020) 0.0005 (0.0012) 0.0019 (0.0109) 0.0471 (0.0622) 0.0609 (0.0652) 0.0479 (0.0382) 0.0000 (0.0000) 0.0226 (0.0305) -0.0088 (0.0313) 0.0473 (0.0342) 0.0626 (0.0895) 0.0747 (0.0475) 0.0322 (0.0344) -0.0080 (0.0627) 0.0556* (0.0337) 0.0105 (0.0097) 0.0813 (0.0578) -0.0948* (0.0518) -0.3404*** (0.0751) -0.0869 (0.0545) 0.0024*** (0.0009) -0.0006 (0.0007) 0.0245*** (0.0066) 0.0520 (0.0356) -0.0137 (0.0358) -0.0147 (0.0178) -0.0000** (0.0000) 0.0201 (0.0161) -0.0513*** (0.0191) 0.0395** (0.0165) 0.0274 (0.0498) -0.0511** (0.0235) 0.0216 (0.0215) -0.0366 (0.0324) 0.0052 (0.0418) 0.0146 (0.0105) -0.0568 (0.0705) 0.2308** (0.1033) 0.2960*** (0.0819) -0.0412 (0.0606) 0.0004 (0.0011) -0.0008 (0.0008) -0.0067 (0.0065) -0.0296 (0.0421) -0.0348 (0.0423) 0.0256 (0.0222) -0.0000 (0.0000) 0.0073 (0.0244) 0.0131 (0.0209) 0.0381* (0.0210) 0.0660 (0.0461) 0.0107 (0.0371) 0.0066 (0.0220) 0.0463 (0.0505) 63 0.0147 (0.0171) -0.0265 (0.0168) 0.2598*** (0.0279) -0.0486*** (0.0180) -0.0425** (0.0208) -0.0271 (0.0167) 0.0667 (0.0465) 0.0020 (0.0382) -0.2069* (0.1256) -0.1600 (0.1169) -0.1179 (0.1027) 0.0490 (0.0309) -0.0259 (0.0327) 0.0248 (0.0457) -0.0591* (0.0325) 0.0060 (0.0367) -0.1103*** (0.0302) -0.0822 (0.1091) -0.0228 (0.0877) 0.1478 (0.2616) 0.1752 (0.2309) 0.0827 (0.2008) 0.0006*** (0.0001) 0.0013*** (0.0001) 0.0784** (0.0347) 2.4433*** (0.2288) 8,588 0.6012 4,017 6,650 -0.0125 (0.0234) -0.0519*** (0.0196) 0.0209 (0.0349) -0.0312 (0.0213) -0.0031 (0.0232) -0.0004 (0.0181) 0.0652 (0.0479) 0.0210 (0.0456) 0.4285*** (0.1320) 0.5092*** (0.1424) 0.2920* (0.1578) 1.1623 (6.3498) -4.7395 (4.7959) 3.9842 (7.3735) 2.9040 (6.6563) -12.9994** (6.1361) 10.3416** (4.5338) -11.5975 (15.7007) 18.8188 (15.3295) 32.1072 (46.2708) 58.4377 (45.2337) 25.7893 (35.4716) Table 16 (cont’d) dum_notoilet dumwage dumlivestock dumnon_arg dumother_inc dum_loan dumyear2 dumyear3 dumyear4 dumyear5 dumyear6 other_input fertilizer adopt_manure Constant Observations R-squared Notes: (1) Clustered robust standard errors in parentheses (2) *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1 (3) Village dummies are controlled for 8,588 0.5634 105.6117*** (40.5321) 64 -12.4644*** 5.5064 (5.0396) Table 17: Impact of general land title Variables Land title plot_size dum_bothirrigat dum_wetdryplot dum_dryplot dum_conflict age_acquisition hh_age hh15_64 dum_married dumhh_female dum_literate assetvalue dum_telev dum_cellp dum_motor dum_genar dum_htrac dum_wpump dum_electrif (1.6086) 19.6567* (10.2726) 44.1728*** (16.8690) 95.2694*** (12.8188) 3.6357 (9.8480) -0.2178 (0.1812) -0.2601* (0.1391) -0.7575 (1.1051) 2.3089 (6.3854) 1.6029 (6.1855) 6.1536* (3.6241) -0.0049** (0.0020) 4.1871 (2.9776) 3.2883 (3.8840) 7.7752** (3.3382) -2.6659 (8.9723) 8.0023* (4.5202) (4.0176) -2.9246 (6.9123) 11.4201*** 0.0527*** (0.0197) 0.0118** (0.0058) -0.0544 (0.0458) 0.3095*** (0.0796) 0.3060*** (0.0431) -0.0208 (0.0367) 0.0006 (0.0007) -0.0011** (0.0005) -0.0024 (0.0037) 0.0071 (0.0240) -0.0114 (0.0242) 0.0249** (0.0127) -0.0000 (0.0000) 0.0166 (0.0130) 0.0036 (0.0126) 0.0382*** (0.0122) 0.0261 (0.0318) -0.0030 (0.0189) 0.0271* (0.0151) -0.0043 (0.0241) 65 OLS Probit regression Fertilizer exp. Fertilizer adopt. Manure adopt. (Marginal effects) (Marginal effects) Probit regression OLS yield 0.0255 (0.0301) -0.1010*** (0.0114) -0.0248 (0.0588) 0.4092*** (0.0801) 0.5230*** (0.0710) 0.1193** (0.0604) -0.0000 (0.0011) -0.0012 (0.0009) 0.0032 (0.0065) -0.0029 (0.0428) -0.0419 (0.0431) 0.0424** (0.0204) 0.0000** (0.0000) 0.0079 (0.0198) -0.0126 (0.0218) 0.0411* (0.0211) 0.0093 (0.0568) 0.0734*** (0.0277) 0.0440 (0.0272) 0.0081 (0.0457) 0.0652*** (0.0168) -0.0017 (0.0049) 0.0191 (0.0307) -0.0061 (0.0362) -0.3930*** (0.0336) -0.0570* (0.0293) 0.0030*** (0.0006) -0.0008* (0.0004) 0.0133*** (0.0037) 0.0317 (0.0214) -0.0200 (0.0212) -0.0159 (0.0106) -0.0000 (0.0000) 0.0253** (0.0103) -0.0186 (0.0117) 0.0044 (0.0103) 0.0475 (0.0297) -0.0264* (0.0146) 0.0165 (0.0142) -0.0188 (0.0211) 0.0067 (0.0118) -0.0246** (0.0101) 0.2589*** (0.0170) -0.0269** (0.0118) -0.0095 (0.0130) -0.0363*** (0.0100) 0.0173 (0.0272) -0.0340 (0.0256) 0.0091 (0.0655) -0.0510 (0.0575) -0.0925 (0.0731) 0.0163 (0.0222) -0.0157 (0.0204) 0.0240 (0.0320) -0.0534** (0.0237) 0.0170 (0.0261) -0.0895*** (0.0182) -0.1138* (0.0594) -0.0326 (0.0580) -0.0602 (0.1159) -0.1672 (0.1092) 0.1617 (0.0997) 0.0008*** (0.0001) 0.0013*** (0.0001) 0.0732*** (0.0229) 3.1424*** (0.0892) 17,772 0.5575 9,771 15,116 -11.4041*** 1.2026 (3.8797) -0.8536 (2.9451) 3.9118 (4.2712) 6.6230* (3.9584) -0.0185 (0.0140) -0.0336*** (0.0116) 0.0155 (0.0187) -0.0092 (0.0137) -0.0087 (0.0145) -0.0007 (0.0105) 0.0746*** (0.0283) 0.1096*** (0.0295) 0.2314*** (0.0635) 0.3394*** (0.0678) 0.4294*** (0.0893) Table 17 (cont’d) dum_notoilet dumwage dumlivestock dumnon_arg dumother_inc dum_loan dumyear2 dumyear3 dumyear4 dumyear5 dumyear6 other_input fertilizer adopt_manure Constant Observations R-squared Notes: (1) Clustered robust standard errors in parentheses (2) *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1 (4.0144) 6.9520** (3.2709) -21.6652** (9.7422) 4.1838 (9.7754) 26.2090 (29.6156) 51.5167* (30.7990) 57.6531*** (20.7487) 394.2086*** (11.2584) 17,772 0.5400 (3) Village dummies are controlled for 66 Appendix B: Choosing the matching technique or algorithm Once the propensity score is predicted, matching plots between the treatment and control groups is done using one of a number of matching techniques, namely nearest-neighbor, caliper or radius matching, stratification or interval matching, or kernel matching. Zhao (2004) proposed that none of the matching techniques are necessarily superior to the others for all situations, and that it depends the data structure. According to Khandker et al. (2010), each matching technique has its pros and cons as follows. Nearest-neighbor (NN) matching is one of the most commonly used matching techniques. In this approach, each treatment unit is matched to the control unit with the closest propensity score, and the frequently chosen number of nearest neighbors is 5 (n=5). This can be conducted with or without replacement. The former means the same control unit can be used as a match for different treatment units, and it increases the average quality of match and reduces bias. Nonetheless, efficiency of this technique declines as variance (distance between high-score treatment units and low-score control units) increases. Caliper or radius matching can deal with the high variance in propensity scores for a treatment unit and its closest control neighbor by imposing a threshold on the highest propensity score distance (caliper). Thus, this approach involves matching with replacement, only within a particular range of propensity score. However, this matching technique is sensitive to the width of the radius, and it is difficult know what choice for the threshold level is reasonable (Caliendo & Kopeinig, 2008). Stratification or interval matching is a matching technique that partitions the common support (matched sample where distribution of propensity score for treatment and control group overlap) into various intervals (strata) and estimates the impact of intervention within each interval by 67 taking the difference in outcome variables between treatment and control groups. The overall intervention impact is calculated by a weighted average of these interval impact estimates with the share of treated observations in each interval being the weights. The matching methods described so far have a common potential problem that “only a few observations from the comparison group are used to construct the counterfactual outcome of the treated ones” (Caliendo & Kopeinig, 2008, p. 43). Kernel matching, a non-parametric method, uses a weighted average of all control units to construct the counterfactual match for each treatment observation. Hence, a major merit of this technique is the lower variance, which is obtained by using more information (Caliendo & Kopeinig, 2008). The potential drawback of this approach is that we possibly use observations that are bad matches. 68 REFERENCES 69 REFERENCES Abdulai, A., Owusu, V., & Goetz, R. (2011). Land tenure differences and investment in land improvement measures: Theoretical and empirical analyses. 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Introduction The Green Revolution technologies, which includes fertilizer and improved crop varieties, has transformed crop production since the late 1960’s through productivity improvement (Khush, 1995; Ogada, Mwabu, & Muchai, 2014). High-yield varieties of seeds are the most important of these technologies, but sometimes it requires other inputs to maximize its productivity. A variety of empirical studies has shown that the adoption of agricultural technologies has a positive impact on livelihood improvement and poverty reduction through increasing income and capacity of farmers (Otsuka, 2000; Pingali, 2012; Babu, Gajanan, & Sanyal, 2014). Also, adopting productivity-enhancing technologies such as high-yield varieties of seed and fertilizer has a positive effect on smallholder market participation – an important step towards agricultural commercialization (Olwande et al., 2015). From a perspective of structural transformation, farm commercialization is instrumental to the sustained long-term growth of a country. Cambodia is an agrarian economy, and rice dominates Cambodia’s agriculture in terms of total agricultural output and cultivated land (Yu & Fan, 2011). However, this sector is constrained by low productivity and subsistence farming practices. In this regard, the government and development partners acknowledge that promoting the adoption of improved technology and farm practices is an important agenda for agricultural development through productivity improvement. Due to the importance of technology adoption in agriculture, conducting research studies about this area can contribute important insights for designing agricultural development policy. It can assist in the process of transforming agriculture to a more 75 productive and commercialized sector. Nonetheless, previous research studies on agricultural technology adoption in Cambodia have not been very extensive. Most of the available studies for Cambodia use descriptive statistics and case studies without rigorous empirical analysis (e.g., Mak, 2001; Ly et al., 2012; Sumner, Christie, & Boulakia, 2017). In literature, some studies have shown that farmers tend to adopt multiple, complementary technologies to cope with various constraints to increasing their farm’s productive capacity. For instance, Ogada et al. (2014) empirically showed that improved maize variety seeds and chemical fertilizer are complementary in Kenya because farmers’ decisions to adopt both inputs are positively interdependent. In addition to modern input adoption, some studies also detect whether farm practices are complements or substitutes. For example, Kassie et al. (2013) studied the adoption of interrelated sustainable agricultural practices in rural Tanzania, and Teklewold et al. (2013) conducted a similar study in rural Ethiopia. Their results suggested that adopting complementary technologies better enhances farm productivity than adopting each of them separately. Thus, from a policy perspective, it is important for government to promote joint adoption of complementary farm technologies and practices, to the extent that it is practically feasible. Previous studies for Cambodia treated the improved rice varieties and chemical fertilizer as independent technologies (e.g., Mak, 2001; Wang et al., 2012; Nguyen et al., 2013). In other words, in their empirical analysis those studies did not take into account the complementarity between improved rice varieties and chemical fertilizer. Another limitation of those previous studies is that none of them used panel data, so the empirical results tend to suffer bias caused by unobserved factors that potentially affect the outcomes. To the best of our knowledge, there have been no studies about improved farm technologies in Cambodia using plot-level panel data. 76 One of the key advantages of panel data is that it enables us to remove unobservable, time- constant factors from the regressions, thus improving the precision of the estimators. Therefore, aiming at contributing to agricultural development policies through the promotion of the improved farm technology adoption in Cambodia, this paper employs empirical methodology and longitudinal plot-level data to understand the adoption of interrelated farm technologies. More specifically, it addresses two empirical questions. First, this paper examines whether farmers’ decisions to adopt improved rice varieties and chemical fertilizer are interrelated (interdependent). The interdependence means that farmers’ decisions to adopt each improved technology is not mutually independent, and the statistical method to test for that is spelt out in the empirical methodology section. Second, it detects the determinants of the probability of adopting those improved farm technologies. Hence, the contribution of this study is twofold: firstly, it contributes to agricultural development policies by taking into account the interdependence of adoption; and secondly, it uses plot-level panel data. The remainder of this paper is organized as follows. Following this introduction, section 3.2 explores the relevant empirical literature on the adoption of improved farm technologies. The conceptual framework is spelt out in section 3.3 and section 3.4 discusses the empirical methodology including the qualitative fieldwork. Section 3.5 describes the data sources and descriptive statistics. Section 3.6 presents and discusses empirical findings, and the last section concludes and provides some policy implications. 3.2. Literature review In general, empirical research on determinants of improved technology adoption has emphasized that risk and uncertainty associated with expected profits are the common constraints to farmers’ decisions to adopt agricultural technology (Feder & Umali, 1993; Smale, Just, & 77 Leathers, 1994). Besides, there are important factors that are related to overcoming problems related to risk and uncertainty. These factors, which also determine a household’s decision to adopt agricultural technologies, include availability of complementary inputs, access to agricultural extension services, social networking, and wealth of households, credit and market accessibilities, land rights, off-farm income, socio-demographic characteristics and agro- ecological locations of households (Feder, Just, & Zilberman, 1985; Nkonya, Schroeder, & Norman, 1997; Matuschke & Qaim, 2008). Smale et al. (1994) studied Malawian smallholders’ decisions regarding land allocation to improved maize seed, and their findings suggest that decisions to adopt high-yield varieties and fertilizer are interrelated. In line with this finding, the study by Nkonya et al. (1997) reveals that there is a significant effect of improved seed adoption on the adoption of fertilizer, implying that the improved rice varieties and fertilizer are complementary inputs. Marenya & Barrett (2009) empirically detect the determinants of farmers’ decisions to adopt and utilize fertilizer based on soil fertility status in Western Kenya. Their findings show that the use of hybrid seed has a positive and significant effect on the probability of adopting fertilizer. However, their study ignores the interdependence of decisions to adopt fertilizer and hybrid seed, so the empirical results may suffer endogeneity because the use of hybrid seed is treated as an independent variable in the regression equations. In literature, a number of recent studies have taken into account the interdependence of farmers’ decisions to adopt improved farm technologies (complements and/or substitutes) by using an econometric approach and treating adoption of each improved technology as a dependent variable (e.g., Kassie et al., 2013; Teklewold et al., 2013; Ogada et al., 2014). However, as mentioned in the introduction, this kind of study has not been conducted in 78 Cambodia. For instance, an empirical study by Wang et al. (2012) used an econometric model to examine the determinants of farmers’ decision to adopt improved rice varieties. Yet, relying on cross-sectional data and ignoring the interdependence of agricultural technologies, their results may have endogeneity bias (Ogada et al., 2014). Apart from economic aspects, social networks and learning also play an important role in the adoption of agricultural technology due to information asymmetries. Sometimes, farmers are not able to apply agricultural technologies properly due to the complexity of the technologies. To overcome this constraint, the farmers can engage in learning-by-doing, experimenting with the new technology to better understand the technology or determine the sensitivity of the technology to local conditions (Barham & Udry, 1999). Alternatively, they might learn from others – either from other farmers who are familiar with the improved technology, or from the extension agents in their neighborhood. In this regard, an empirical study by Foster & Rosenzweig (1995) suggest that imperfect information is a significant constraint to adoption, and farmers become increasingly receptive of the applicability and profitability of the high-yield seeds from their own experiences and those of their neighbors. Also, Conley & Udry (2010) shows that social learning plays an important role in the adoption of fertilizer in pineapple production in Ghana. In some cases, farmers realize the profitability of new technologies from the experience of other farmers in their groups or associations. For example, most of the farmers who adopted pearl millet hybrids in India, learned from their fellow farmers via their social network about the advantages of this crop variety (Matuschke & Qaim, 2008). 3.3. Conceptual framework This section briefly conceptualizes farm households’ decisions to adopt interrelated technologies and the factors that are the potential determinants of agricultural technology 79 adoption, based on the literature. A household chooses a set of improved farm technologies to maximize the expected utility of profit conditional on the adoption decision (Feder, 1982; Smale, Just, & Leathers, 1994; Feder & Umali, 1993; Ogada, Mwabu, & Muchai, 2014). In general, farm households maximize their expected utility through the dichotomous choice of whether or not to adopt the technology (Feder & Umali, 1993). In our study, a household chooses to apply interrelated inputs together to a plot if the expected utility of profit with this adoption is higher than that of adopting only one of the inputs or neither. The study tests the hypothesis that a farm household’s decisions to use chemical fertilizer and improved rice varieties on a plot are complementary. Regarding the determinants of technology adoption, the first category is farmers’ access to information and their knowledge related to rice production technology. It is worth observing that communication – a process in which farmers generate and share information – is a main element of the diffusion of innovations through certain channels such as media and interpersonal interactions (Rogers, 2003). This idea is in line with the recently emerging studies that focus on learning through social networks. Under certain circumstances, farmers are not able to apply agricultural technologies properly because of the complexity of the technologies, which Barham & Udry (1999) attribute to tacit elements of a technology, sensitivity, and institutional context of some agricultural technologies. To overcome the first two issues of new improved farm technologies, farmers engage in learning-by-doing, experimenting with the new improved farm technology to reveal tacit elements of the technology. Besides, farmers might learn either from other farmers or others such as extension agents or their neighbor. This category of determinants implies the importance of sources from which farmers acquired knowledge about improved farm technology. 80 Another important group of determinants of technology adoption is socio-economic characteristics of farm households such as wealth of the household, access to credit, market accessibility, land titling, sources of income, and households’ socio-demographic characteristics such as the educational attainment, age, gender of household head, household size, and family labor supply (Marenya & Barrett, 2007; Matuschke & Qaim, 2008; Teklewold et al., 2013; Kassie et al., 2013; Gajanan, 2014). For instance, a farmer with good education tends to have a better ability to think analytically and use information about improved farm technologies more effectively. Furthermore, institutional factors such as appropriate policy intervention and availability of an agricultural development program in the community are also significant determinants of adoption (Feder et al., 1985; Feder & Umali, 1993). In contrast, weak regulatory enforcement and unclear roles between the state institutions of responsibilities in agricultural modern input trade may negatively influence the adoption rates. For instance, the complexity and high costs of the fertilizer licensing process in Cambodia may hinder some farmers’ decision to use fertilizer (Theng, Khiev, & Phon, 2014). Further, good infrastructure is also supportive to the adoption of improved farm technology. For example, accessible and reliable irrigation system has a positive linkage with farmers’ decision to adopt a new improved farm technology because it can reduce the risk and uncertainties associated with farm profitability through the reduction in the negative impacts of rainfall variations. On the other hand, underdeveloped irrigation infrastructure in an area of unreliable rainfall patterns makes it difficult for farmers to adopt modern varieties because the likelihood of crop failure tends to be high. 81 Besides, economic factors (i.e. markets, input and output prices) also influence farmers’ decision to adopt improved farm technology. For example, high fertilizer prices may prevent farmers from applying fertilizer to crops in sufficient amount. In Cambodia, most villages are not large, so we can assume that prices of agricultural inputs and outputs do not vary much within a village. Hence, in the absence of information on input and output prices, controlling for village dummies (village fixed effects) can account for village-level differences in prices. Also, the agro-ecological locations of households and soil quality play an important role in farmers’ decisions on input use (Marenya & Barrett, 2009). For example, farmers whose cultivated land is not fertile are less likely than those with fertile plots to adopt modern inputs such as high-yield varieties and fertilizer. In our study, we use plot-level panel data which allows us to control for time-invariant unobservable plot characteristics, particularly soil fertility of a plot, because this factor would not change over the four-year period of our data collection (2012- 2106). Additionally, in practice, households’ locations including district or zones can be also be alternative indicators for the agro-ecological locations of households (Kassie et al., 2013), so our study can account for this factor by controlling for village dummies. By doing so, we can also control for village fixed effects, and do not need to control for village-level characteristics, which were not collected in the baseline survey. 3.4. Empirical methodology 3.4.1. Multivariate probit model To test for simultaneous adoption decisions, the farmer’s choice of interrelated farm technology is modelled using the multivariate probit (MVP) model (Dorfman, 1996). The multivariate probit regression allows us to simultaneously run more than one univariate (ordinary) probit model (Cappellari & Jenkins, 2003), each of which has only one binary 82 dependent variable. This approach can statistically show whether adoption decisions on the improved farm technology are interdependent. Adapted from the empirical studies by Kassie et al. (2013) and Teklewold et al. (2013), the econometric model of bivariate probit regression, characterized by two binary dependent variables for our study, is expressed in the following equation. 12=>∗ =42=>5=+92> (equation 4), Where i represents plot (i=1,2…. N), and t represents time t= 1, 2 (or 2012 and 2016 for this study). Also, k denotes binary dependent variables which are described as follows: (1) Improved varieties (V): 1 if improved rice variety was used on a plot in the last rice growing completed season (dry or wet-season), 0 otherwise. (2) Chemical fertilizer (F): 1 if chemical fertilizer was used on a plot in the last rice growing completed season (dry or wet-season), 0 otherwise. The unobserved choices in equation (4) can be represented by the observed binary outcome equation for each improved farm technology adoption as follows. 12=>= 1 )? 12=>∗ >0 0 %*ℎ&$A)(& (equation 5) Equation (4) and (5) imply that the net benefit 12=>∗ from the adoption of the kth improved farm technology is a latent variable determined by observed household characteristics (42>) and the error term (92>). In the multivariate regression model, the adoption of multiple technologies is possible, so the error terms of equation (4) jointly follow a multivariate normal distribution with zero conditional mean and variance normalized to unity, with systematic covariance matrix given by: 83 Ω= 1 CDE CED 1 (equation 6) where V: improved varieties; F: chemical fertilizer The specification with non-zero off-diagonal elements in the covariance matrix C, symbolizes the unobservable correlation between the error terms of the two univariate probit equations. In other words, this method allows the error terms of each equation to be freely correlated, which implies whether different technologies are complement (positive correlation) or substitute (negative correlation) for each other in the adoption decision. 3.4.2. Correlated random effects (CRE) model Our study uses plot-level panel data. Thus, to examine the determinants of improved farm technology adoption, the fixed effect (FE) estimator would be the most feasible approach. It enables us to control for confounding effects of time-constant unobservable factors such as a plot’s soil fertility and a farmer’s ability and intelligence (Wooldridge, 2008), which might be correlated with the explanatory variables in the regression. In other words, FE can address the omitted variable bias which might be caused by unobserved heterogeneity of plots and households. However, with panel data, FE estimators are not consistent in the case of nonlinear models such as probit, logit and Tobit (Wooldridge, 2010). Hence, to deal with the problem of unobserved heterogeneity with panel data, Wooldridge (2010) recommends the correlated random effects (CRE) model proposed by Mundlak (1978) and Chamberlain (1984). This model, which is also known as the Mundlak-Chamberlain device, controls for the correlation between unobserved, time-invariant heterogeneity and the explanatory variables in the nonlinear regression framework by including the averages of time-varying regressors in the model. The CRE technique has been used in a number of recent studies with panel data to handle the 84 be summarized in the following form of CR aforementioned challenge (e.g., Smale & Olwande, 2014; Mathenge, Smale, & Olwande, 2014; Olwande, Smale, Mathenge, Place, & Mithofer, 2015). The probit regression equation can also takes the value of one if an improved farm technology was used on plot i at time t (2012 and 2016). F12>=1 =F 12>∗>0 =G2H+ 42>5+-2+92> (equation 7) Where 12> is the observed binary outcome for each improved farm technology that is adopted. It And, the improved farm technology is adopted when the net benefit 12>∗ of the adoption, which is a latent variable, is positive. G2 is a vector of observed time-constant factors5 expected to influence adoption of improved farm technology on plot i. Also, 42> is a vector of observed time-varying characteristics of plot i at time t, -2 is a variable that captures the unobserved time-invariant attributes that influence adoption decision, and 92> is the error term that changes across time, plots, and households. The CRE framework allows us to model the relationship between -2 and observed characteristics, 42> as follows: Where 4J is the mean of 42 across time (2012 and 2106), I is constant, L2 is the error term which is assumed to have zero mean. Equation (8) implies that -2 is correlated with the time-varying regressors through its average level over time. Plugging -2 in equation (7), we obtain probit F12>=1 =F 12>∗>0 =G2H+ 42>5+I+4JK+L2+92> (equation 9) -2=I+4JK+L2 (equation 8) regression in the form of CRE as shown in (9). Equation (9) means that we run the probit regression with the CRE framework by including the time-averages of time-varying independent variables for each plot and household, along with time dummies and time-invariant observed variables. Doing this ensures that our 5 This also includes observable characteristics of household, because a plot i belongs to a household. 85 independent variables (G2 L'M 42>) are not correlated with the time-invariant attributes captured in the error terms (Wooldridge, 2010). With balanced panel data, 5 of equation (9) and the estimate provided from pooled cross-section regression are comparable (Wooldridge, 2010). We report the coefficients for probit CRE regression in terms of average marginal (or partial) effects because it implies a linear relationship between dependent and independent variables, which is convenient for the interpretation. Thus, we use pooled probit CRE regression to estimate equation (9), because this method is recommended when we focus on the marginal effects (Wooldridge, 2010). There are three dependent variables for the pooled probit CRE estimation. They are a dichotomous adoption variable (1 for adoption at plot-level; 0 otherwise) for improved rice varieties, chemical fertilizer and the combination of the two types of technology. To control for village heterogeneity (or village fixed effects), we also include village dummies in our regression model. Since there are 84 villages, there will be 83 village dummies included in the regressions. Also, the standard error in each regression estimation is clustered at village to ensure that it is robust for making inference. 3.4.3. Qualitative fieldwork 25 semi-structured qualitative interviews were conducted in late August 2017 with some of the surveyed households in order to assist with the interpretation and enrich the discussion of the empirical findings. These households were selected first via key informants who could identify households who had participated in the survey, and then through snowball sampling based on the knowledge of those who participated in the qualitative interviewing. The information gathered in the semi-structured interviews includes questions specifically about improved rice varieties and chemical fertilizer use. I was the interviewer assisted by a note taker; 86 I did this fieldwork in three provinces of HARVEST program (Battambang, Siem Reap and Kampong Thom). The purpose of the interviews is to supplement the discussion of the empirical results. What I expected to get through the interviews are in-depth answers to the questions related to why farmers used the modern inputs together, the important sources of information about improved farm technologies, and the constraints they have faced. The interviews were auto- recoded and summarized for the analysis. And, to protect identity of the participants, any personal information such as names and positions, as well as other information that I recorded during the data collection, was strictly confidential. For data analysis, I recorded the conversations and took written notes. After doing my statistical analysis, I explored the notes and the recordings to find discussions that helped interpret the statistical findings. Besides, the notes taken during the interviews were checked against the audio records to ensure internal validity of the qualitative data and trustworthiness. 3.5. Data and descriptive statistics The study is based on the HARVEST household panel survey (2012-2016) in four provinces in Tonle Sap region – one of the four agro-ecological zones in Cambodia. The baseline survey of 2100 households across 84 villages was carried out by the Cambodia Development Resource Institute (CDRI) in four provinces from late August to early September 2012. HARVEST, standing for Helping Address Rural Vulnerabilities and Ecosystem Stability, was a five-year program, financially supported by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). The Cambodia HARVEST program set strategic goals to improve food security, strengthen natural resource management and resilience to climate change, and increase 87 the capacity of the public and private sectors and civil society to support agricultural competitiveness. CDRI was also responsible for data collection in the end-term survey, which was scheduled for the same month as the baseline survey, four years later. The survey instrument was designed by the HARVEST program evaluation team, mainly involving international consultant team from the Michigan State University and local researchers of Cambodia Development Resource Institute (CDRI). The questionnaire was adapted from the standard population-based survey (PBS) such as Cambodia Socio-Economic Survey (CSES) with some modification to reflect local context. The data has information at plot- and household levels, including demography, sources of income, consumption expenditure, rice and vegetable production, adoption of improved farm technologies and nutrition. The purpose of data collections (baseline and end-line surveys) is for the impact assessment of the HARVEST program. The sample size of the end-term survey is 2,328 households, meaning that some new households were included in this period. Additionally, 179 households (8.5 percent) from the baseline dropped out and were not included in the end-term survey, resulting in a balanced panel data of 1921 households in each period. In this study, we focus on rice production at the plot level, so in our empirical analysis I excluded the plots that did not grow rice. With this condition, there were 5,890 plots (belonging to 1,982 households) in 2012, and 7,884 plots (2,048 households) in 2016, engaging in rice production. These are the numbers prior to constructing the balanced plot-level data, so the number of plots and households in the two time periods are not the same. It is worth noting that 1,738 among the 5,890 plots from the baseline were not involved in rice production. Thus, after data cleaning and merging, we obtain a balanced panel 88 data of 4,112 rice plots (1,598 households) in each period for our empirical analysis. As a result, the pooled sample consists of 8,224 observations (Table 18). The CDRI data collection team confirmed that the data is plot-level panel. There are various operational aspects of identifying the baseline plots in the end-line survey. First, the name of each plot was collected and recorded in Khmer (the local language) during the baseline survey, so it is convenient for the farmers as well as the data collectors to track the same plots over time. Second, during the end-line survey, for each household, the CDRI team prepared a list of plots with names and IDs. Since there are 2,100 households in baseline, they prepared 2,100 lists accordingly with the printed lists distributed to the data collectors according to the villages where they were assigned to. Third, based on the household IDs, the data collectors listed all of the plot names corresponding to the IDs in the questionnaire. When conducting the interview, the farmers were asked whether or not each plot was available. If a plot was no longer used by a household, it was excluded from the questionnaire, and thus that particular household has no information about that plot in the end-line survey. If a household acquired a new plot after the baseline survey, on the other hand, the new ID was given so as to have no any duplicated plot IDs over the two time periods. The dependent and independent variables at plot- and household levels are defined and summarized in Table 18. If some plots were planted in both the wet and dry seasons, I collapsed the two observations to one observation at the plot level to have a unique plot ID for empirical analysis. There are three dependent variables which are reported at plot-level. They are a dichotomous adoption variable (1 for adoption at plot-level; 0 otherwise) for improved rice varieties, chemical fertilizer and the combination of the two types of technology. For instance, fertilizer adoption was defined as 1 if this input was either in dry season, wet season or both 89 seasons. This definition also applies to adoption of improved rice varieties. To further deal with seasonal dimension, the combination variable was defined before I collapsed the data to the plot- level. Thus, in a scenario where an improved variety was planted without fertilizer in the wet season (for example), and an unimproved variety was planted with fertilizer in the dry season, my combination variable would be zero. In other words, the combination equals 1 one if improved variety and fertilizer were used in the same season. An important plot characteristic is whether a plot was used for dry-season rice, so I use a dummy variable to indicate if the data is for the dry season, which is a proxy for irrigation. That is, a dry-season rice plot is defined as 1 farmer grew rice in the dry season or in both dry and wet seasons on that plot; it equals 0 otherwise. By controlling for this variable in the regression equations, I do not do the empirical estimations by season, because the proportion of the dry- season plots is less than 15 percent of the pooled sample, which is quite small for statistical analysis. The average adoption rates of improved rice varieties, chemical fertilizer, and the combination of the two types of inputs were 57 percent, 72 percent and 45 percent, respectively in 2012. And, these rates respectively increased by 2.1, 7.1 and 3.3 percentage points in 2016. The explanatory variables are plot and household characteristics that determine decisions to adopt the improved farm technologies. After reconciling the available information from survey data and the literature on technology adoption (e.g., Bandiera & Rasul, 2006; Doss, 2006; Kassie et al., 2013), we choose a number of the independent variables to include in the model based on what other authors have done. Below is the brief descriptive statistics for some of those variables, which can be found in Table 18. 90 In the baseline, 14.7 percent of the 4,112 plots were used for dry season rice farming, and this rate decreased to 8.9 percent in 2016. On average, the plot size increased from 0.793 hectare in 2012 to 0.809 hectare in 2016, implying that some households expanded their plots over this period. This is consistent with what I learnt from some data collectors who engaged in the end-line survey. I have four dichotomous variables for the households’ access to information/or agricultural extension services about improved rice varieties and chemical fertilizer application from various sources – their neighbors, NGOs, HARVEST program and provincial department of agriculture (PDA). These are the common sources of information about improved farm technologies, according to previous studies in Cambodia (Theng et al., 2014). On average, in each period around 21 percent of households in the sample acquired knowledge about improved technologies from their neighbors. However, the proportion of households drawing on other information sources, especially the HARVEST program and PDA, declined over the period 2012-2016. For example, in 2016, around 2 percent of households received information about the improved farm technologies from HARVEST during the previous 12 months, compared to about 24 percent in 2012 (Table 18). The reduced proportion might be because in some areas the HARVEST program completed its work approximately one year before the end-line survey was conducted. 91 Table 18: Variable definitions and summary statistics by year Definition Variable Dependent variables Improved variety Fertilizer Combination 1 if improved rice variety was used on a plot in the last rice growing completed season (dry or wet-season), 0 otherwise. 1 if a plot with chemical fertilizer used in the last rice growing completed season (dry or wet-season), 0 otherwise. 1 if a plot with both chemical fertilizer and improved rice variety used in the last rice growing completed season, 0 otherwise. Independent variables (plot level) Dry-season rice plot Plot size 1 if a plot is used for dry season rice (irrigated rice production) Plot size in hectare Independent variables (HH level) Extension from neighbors Extension from NGOs Extension (HARVEST) Extension from PDA 1 if HH had access to extension knowledge about the improved rice or fertilizer from the neighbors in the last 12 months; 0 otherwise. 1 if HH had access to extension knowledge about the improved rice or fertilizer from the NGOs in the 12 last months; 0 otherwise. 1 if HH had access to extension knowledge about the improved rice or fertilizer from the HARVEST in the 12 last months; 0 otherwise. 1 if HH had access to extension knowledge about the improved rice or fertilizer from the provincial department of agriculture (PDA) 2012 2016 Pooled Mean Std. Mean Std. Mean Std. 0.570 0.495 0.591 0.492 0.580 0.494 0.723 0.447 0.794 0.404 0.759 0.428 0.451 0.516 0.561 0.500 0.484 0.500 0.147 0.793 0.354 1.027 0.089 0.807 0.285 0.991 0.118 0.800 0.322 1.009 0.205 0.404 0.209 0.407 0.207 0.405 0.234 0.424 0.176 0.381 0.205 0.404 0.241 0.428 0.021 0.142 0.131 0.337 Household size sex of HH head: 1 if male Age of household head (years) 1 if HH can read or write, and 0 otherwise 1 if household head has primary education (grade 1 to 6) 1 if household head has secondary education (grade 7 to 9) 1 if HH own a TV; 0 otherwise Household’s landholding Total land holding of a household in hectare Household size Household head (male) Age of household head Literate Primary education Secondary education Dummy of TV Dummy of mobile phone 1 if household owns a mobile phone, and 0 otherwise Dummy of tractor Dummy of motorbike Asset value Consumption Wage income Remittances Source: Calculation based on HARVEST data 2012-2016. Notes: in the regressions, Plot size, Household’s landholding, Asset value and Consumption are converted into logarithm. Std.: standard deviation. There are on 4,122 observations for plot-level variables in each period and 1,598 observations for household-level variables in each period. 1 if household owns a hand-tractor/tractor, and 0 otherwise 1 if household owns a motorbike, and 0 otherwise Asset value in ‘0000’ in real terms in real terms in '0000' Riels Daily consumption per capita in real terms in Riels Monthly wage income per year in real terms in '0000' Riels Income from remittances per year in real terms in ‘0000’ Riels 0.315 0.029 3.152 2.947 2.035 6.370 0.373 0.786 12.88 56.525 0.464 0.713 0.500 0.558 0.339 0.150 0.472 0.715 0.448 0.859 0.464 0.449 0.491 0.755 817.2 525.84 2,125 4,433 68.81 150.66 151.25 133.83 0.111 2.861 5.703 0.834 54.648 0.688 0.493 0.133 0.666 0.723 0.313 0.594 409.84 4,483 48.946 39.68 0.256 3.143 2.131 0.393 12.789 0.458 0.499 0.349 0.462 0.407 0.486 0.469 797.31 2,667 294.72 310.10 0.169 3.135 2.174 0.410 12.63 0.452 0.497 0.358 0.451 0.349 0.498 0.430 772.8 3,116 374.1 406.1 0.070 2.904 6.037 0.810 55.59 0.701 0.525 0.142 0.690 0.791 0.381 0.675 467.9 4,458 99.6 86.81 92 3.6. Empirical results First, this section presents the empirical results estimated by the multivariate probit model. Overall, the likelihood ratio test [chi2(1) = 153.94, P<0.01] of the null hypothesis that the covariance of error terms across the equations are jointly equal to zero is rejected (Table 19). This result implies that farm households’ decisions to adopt improved rice varieties and chemical fertilizer at plot level are interdependent in the four provinces. The binary correlations between error terms of the three adoption equations are shown in Table 19. The statically significant and positive coefficient suggests that the two technologies are complements. This finding is consistent with some studies in other countries (e.g., Kassie et al., 2013; Teklewold et al., 2013; Ogada, Mwabu, & Muchai, 2014). Also, it is in line with what I learned from the qualitative data which shows that most of them have commonly used chemical fertilizer with improved rice varieties in their rice farming. The main reason for using these inputs together is that the farmers would not obtain good output by using improved rice varieties alone. The qualitative findings also indicate that some farmers purchased the improved variety seeds every year while the others re-used the seeds they produced in the previous season. The main reason for the multiplication of the improved seed is that some farmers could not afford to buy the improved variety seeds for all of their plots. For instance, a farmer in Battambang used one fourth of his land to produce the improved variety seeds for the next farming cycle. He indicated that amount of seeds needed per hectare is around 190 kilograms and the seed price was around 3,200 riels (USD 0.8). 93 Table 19: Correlation coefficients for MVP regression equations !"#$%&'() '+%"(,- Likelihood ratio test of: ρ2345676834_6:;4<=3> =?4635@ =0 !.(%,"/"0(% 0.165 (0.0197) *** chi2(1) = 153.94 *** (significance levels: * 10 percent; ** 5 percent; *** 1 percent) (clustered robust standard errors in the parenthesis) Source: Calculation based on HARVEST data 2012-2016. The second objective of the study is to analyze the factors that influence the adoption of improved rice varieties, chemical fertilizer and the combination of both improved technologies using Correlated Random Effects probit regressions. The coefficients in Table 20 are reported in terms of average marginal (partial) effects for a convenient interpretation. That is, a parameter estimate is the expected probability that a unit change in variable X will result in in the outcome variable Y equaling 1, with other independent variables held fixed. Coefficients on the averages of time-varying variables that I controlled for are not in the table, because I do not interpret them (Wooldridge, 2010). There are no village-specific variables in these regressions, because I already control for differences in village characteristics with the village dummies. It is worth noting that the number of observations is lower in the regressions, particularly for the chemical fertilizer adoption. The reason for this reduction is that I control for the village dummies in the regressions to take into account the village fixed effects. Then, STATA automatically dropped the plots in the villages where all or most of the observations have the same value of dependent variables. For instance, if fertilizer was used on all of or most of the plots in a village, STATA excludes those observations from the regression, because it perfectly predicts that the outcome is equal to 1 for that village. This reason also applies to the regression for improved rice variety. 94 Improved varieties Chemical fertilizer (Marginal effects) (Marginal effects) Combination (Marginal effects) Table 20: Correlated random effects (CRE) estimation results of the determinants of adoption of agricultural technology Variables Dry-season rice plot Plot size (in logarithm) Extension from neighbors Extension from NGOs Extension (HARVEST) Extension from PDA Landholding (logarithm) Household size Household head (male) Age of household head Literate Primary education Secondary education TV Dummy of mobile phone Dummy of tractor Dummy of motor Asset value (logarithm) Consumption (logarithm) Wage income 0.23092*** (0.02743) 0.00374 (0.02615) 0.06696*** (0.02350) 0.00066 (0.02303) 0.02941 (0.02913) 0.01255 (0.04085) -0.00818 (0.02700) -0.00402 (0.01523) -0.02579 (0.02157) -0.00224 (0.00307) 0.00937 (0.02210) -0.00151 (0.02045) 0.04549* (0.02543) 0.07802*** (0.02416) -0.00188 (0.03068) -0.01352 (0.03093) 0.04683 (0.03256) -0.00150 (0.01304) -0.02631 (0.02862) 0.00002 (0.00003) 0.28390*** (0.02757) -0.02289 (0.01827) -0.00158 (0.01747) 0.01601 (0.01601) 0.01689 (0.02205) 0.03002 (0.02286) -0.03590* (0.01935) 0.00422 (0.01109) -0.01549 (0.01624) 0.00377* (0.00212) -0.00242 (0.01885) 0.00929 (0.01704) 0.03538* (0.02103) 0.01698 (0.01734) -0.02582 (0.02300) 0.00267 (0.02222) 0.01019 (0.02296) 0.00601 (0.00917) 0.00288 (0.02023) 0.00001 (0.00002) 0.15964*** (0.02806) 0.03718 (0.02845) 0.09540*** (0.02641) 0.01367 (0.02642) -0.00628 (0.03206) 0.02185 (0.04702) 0.00209 (0.02900) -0.00710 (0.01630) -0.02381 (0.02194) -0.00272 (0.00306) 0.00597 (0.02280) 0.01568 (0.02134) 0.04045 (0.02670) 0.08705*** (0.02708) 0.01995 (0.03187) -0.02429 (0.03297) 0.01032 (0.03557) -0.00793 (0.01310) -0.01939 (0.03043) 0.00002 (0.00004) 95 Table 20 (cont’d) Remittances Dummy of year 2016 Pseudo R-squared Observations Source: Calculation based on HARVEST data 2012-2016. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1 Notes: (1) Clustered robust standard errors in parentheses (2) We also controlled for village fixed effects (3) The coefficients are reported as the marginal effects for linear interpretation 0.000002 (0.00004) 0.05468*** (0.01509) 0.3701 7,496 0.00008* (0.00004) 0.03353 (0.02273) 0.1799 8,218 0.00007* (0.00004) 0.06885*** (0.02161) 0.2371 8,218 The probability of the adoption of improved farm technologies is greater on the plots of dry season rice, which is always irrigated. On average, the dry-season rice plots are around 16 percent more likely than the rainy-season plots to be associated with the adoption of improved rice varieties, holding other factors fixed. Also, the probability of adoption of chemical fertilizer and the combination of both improved rice and fertilizer for the dry-season plots is higher than rain-fed plots by 28.4 percent and 23 percent, respectively, at 1 percent significance level. This finding is in line with that of previous empirical studies in other countries (e.g., Feder & Umali, 1993; Doss, 2006), and in Cambodia (e.g., Wang, Pandey, & Velarde, 2012; Ly et al., 2012). In general, modern inputs such as chemical fertilizers and improved seed varieties work well with irrigation. That is why the underdeveloped irrigation infrastructure in an area of unreliable rainfall patterns is a constraint for farmers to adopt improved farm technology. This finding suggests that, on average, the likelihood that farmers used improved inputs on a dry-season rice plot is higher than a rain-fed plot, because dry-season rice relies on irrigation. However, there are also farmers who use both improved seeds and chemical fertilizer in the dry season and also use fertilizer on their rain-fed land in the wet season. This finding solely confirms the important roles of irrigation in the adoption of the improved farm technologies. Also, this finding is in line with what we observed during the in-depth interviews, 96 because farmers who adopted improved rice varieties and fertilizers said that sufficient water plays an important role in their rice farming. In addition, the decision to adopt improved rice varieties and the combination of fertilizer and improved rice varieties is positively and significantly associated with knowledge about them that farmers acquired from their neighbors. On average, farm households with access to this type of knowledge from their neighbors are 9.5 percent and 6.7 percent more likely to adopt improved rice varieties and the combination of both improved rice and fertilizer, respectively (Table 20). We can explain this finding from the perspective of social learning that farmers can learn from others about the use of improved seed and other farm technology. That is, farmers become more receptive of the applicability and profitability of the farm technology from the experience of their neighbors. This result is reinforced by some empirical studies in other countries. For instance, Mathenge, Smale, & Olwande (2014) show that the proportion of village households that use hybrid maize seed has a positive and significant influence on a farmer’s decision to adopt that improved technology in Kenya. Similarly, a seminal study of pineapple production in Ghana by Conley & Udry (2010) empirically shows that farmers adjust their inputs after observing the harvest of their neighbors who are also using improved inputs. Our finding in this paper suggests that social learning is also important in the context of agricultural technology adoption in Cambodia. Also, the qualitative interviews reinforce this empirical finding. For instance, some farmers adopted the improved varieties after observing that some of their neighbors switched their seeds from traditional varieties to the improved ones which have a shorter duration and higher yield. The total landholding of a household has a negative relationship with the probability of chemical fertilizer adoption (Table 20). For each hectare of additional land to the total land that a 97 household has, the probability of adopting chemical fertilizer decreases by around 3.5 percent. Even though this result is not consistent with those of some studies (e.g., Feder & Mara, 1981; Marenya & Barrett , 2007), it is not an exception to all of the literature (e.g., Nkonya et al., 1997; Croppenstedt, Demeke, & Meschi, 2003; Kassie et al., 2013). For example, our finding is consistent with an empirical study by Kassie et al. (2013) which shows that households with less land are more likely to adopt chemical fertilizer. A possible explanation for this inverse relationship is that the limited farm land may induce farm households to intensify their rice production by using productivity-enhancing inputs for a particular plot. Also, it is one of the essential drivers of the inverse farm-size-productivity, which is commonly found around the world. Similar to the findings by Olwande, Sikei, & Mathenge (2009) and Teklewold et al. (2013), I find that the probability of chemical fertilizer adoption increases by around 3.8 percent for each extra year of the household head’s age. This coefficient is statistically significant at 10 percent level. I checked for a nonlinear relationship, and found that the coefficient on age squared is not statistically significant. What we can explain from this finding is that older farmers may have more exposure than younger ones to farm technologies and environments, and better social capital. On the other hand, age is negatively related with adoption of improved rice varieties, but it is not statistically significant. Some studies found that age is associated with a reduction in the probability of adopting some improved farm technologies. Their reason for this inverse relationship is that older farmers are more risk averse and have shorter planning prospects than their younger counterparts (Mbaga-Semgalawe & Folmer, 2000). Given the conflicting arguments, Kassie et al. (2013) hypothesize that linkage between age of household head and the probability of adopting improved farm technologies is indeterminate. 98 Regarding educational attainment, which is an indicator of human capital, a household head with secondary education is associated with 3.5 percent and 4.5 percent increase in the probability of adopting chemical fertilizer and the combination of both improved technologies, respectively. The coefficients are statistically significant at 10 percent level. Usually, farmers with higher education seem to be better aware of how to apply new knowledge or techniques and also better aware of the potential benefits of the improved technologies. The finding is aligned with some empirical work in other countries. For instance, Olwande et al. (2009) found that secondary education by the household head increases the probability of adopting fertilizer by 11.2 percent in Kenya. Also, a study in Madagascar by Moser & Barrett (2006) empirically shows that an additional year schooling of household head increases probability of adopting System of Rice Intensification (SRI) by 1 percent. Moreover, on average, a household that owns a television has around 8.9 percent and 7.9 percent higher probability of adopting improved rice varieties and the combination of both improved farm technologies, respectively. This variable is an indicator for a good means of getting information because there is extension effort prepared by the Agricultural Extension Department via the TV in Cambodia. It is one of the good sources for information about improved farm technologies. This linkage is reinforced by the idea of diffusion of innovations theory, which hypothesizes that a certain level of an individual’s uncertainty and perceived risk can decline by having more access to information. The dissemination of information about improved farm technologies and new knowledge depends on communication channels including media (Rogers, 2003). In other words, other things equal, the differences across farmers in information and knowledge through the television about improved farm technologies can positively influence adoption decisions. 99 In addition, TV ownership can be an indicator of wealth, which influences risk aversion. That is, a wealthy farmer is less risk-averse than a less wealthy counterpart when it comes to adoption of new farming practices. In general, other things equal, wealthier households have more financial resources to afford the adoption of improved farm technologies. However, it should be noted that other important variables of household wealth in the regressions have no significant relationship with the adoption of improved inputs. Those variables include asset value, consumption expenditure, motorbike, and hand tractor. Furthermore, on average, each 1 million Riels (USD 250) of additional remittances per year that a household receives is associated with 0.7 percent increase in the probability of adopting the combination of both improved technologies, at 10 percent significance level. In the literature, income from non-farm activities has been shown to have some influence on a farm’s decision to adopt better farm practices or new variety of crops, because it provides budget- constrained farmers with liquidity to purchase farm inputs and make other investments (Haggblade, Hazell, & Reardon, 2010). In line with this, a recent study by Roth & Tiberti (2016) found that migration and remittances reduce poverty headcount rate in Cambodia by 3 to 7 percentage points. The year 2016 dummy captures the dynamics of farm technology adoption in our sample over the period 2012-2016. On average, with other factors in the regression equations held constant, the result indicates that the probability of adopting chemical fertilizer and the combination of both inputs increased by 5.5 percent and 6.8 percent, respectively over that period. Controlling for year allows us to better capture the effects on technology adoption of our main factors of interest. 100 3.7. Conclusions and policy implications In this article, I have used longitudinal plot-level data of the HARVEST program (2012- 2106) to address two empirical questions. First, we have examined whether farmers’ decisions to adopt improved rice varieties and chemical fertilizer are interrelated (interdependent). Second, we have investigated the factors that facilitate or impede the probability of adopting those improved farm technologies. We have applied a bivariate probit model to test for the interdependence of technology adoption. To apply a nonlinear probit model to panel data, we use the correlated random effects (CRE) framework, which controls for the correlation between unobserved, time-invariant heterogeneity and observed factors in the nonlinear regression model by including the means of time-varying independent variables. And, we have used this estimation strategy to examine the determinants of adoption by also controlling for village fixed effects and using clustered robust standard errors. The main findings of this study can be summarized as follows. First, our results suggest that adopting the improved rice variety and chemical fertilizer at the plot level are complementary. This provides a basis for the government to design policies that promote multiple technology adoptions at once, because farmers tend to adopt both improved inputs together. Nonetheless, in practice, there may be important constraints to the whole package, and those constraints include the lack of good irrigation system, limited access to information and knowledge about improved farm technologies, low education and liquidity constraint. It implies that we should reduce the constraints to adopting the whole package of improved technologies to the extent possible, but also that it is important to have options for the ones who cannot adopt everything. 101 Further, there is empirical evidence that the probability of adopting improved farm technologies is positively influenced by various factors: irrigation, social learning in the form of information from neighbors, age of household head, secondary education, TV ownership (as a means of accessing the media), and remittances. At the same time, our results show that the probability of adoption is negatively associated with land size of a household. The significant role of irrigation on adoption suggests the need to further develop reliable irrigation, which helps reduce risk and uncertainty by relying less on the rainfall. Also, this helps make Cambodia’s farming system less vulnerable to climate variability and shocks, especially late rainfall and drought. Thus, interventions intended to improve market conditions alone may not be sufficient to encourage adoption of improved farm technologies. Additionally, the importance of social learning calls for further strengthening the rural or local institutions to accelerate and sustain technology adoption. In the rural areas, where information asymmetry is common and input and output market is incomplete, the local institutions such as farmer cooperatives or groups can provide farmers with timely information and inputs. The positive linkage between mean of media in the form TV ownership and the probability of adoption suggest that promoting agricultural technologies via television program might be an effective way of communication. Thus, expansion of the media coverage for agricultural extension services, especially via the television would contribute to encouraging the adoption of improved rice varieties and the combination of both inputs in our study area as well as Cambodia. Further, our results indicate that further investment in public education (the secondary one) will also be supportive of the adoption of the interrelated technologies and chemical fertilizer. 102 Finally, adoption of improved farm technologies can be affected by other important factors such as rainfall, expected profit, and particularly the market participation. Hence, further research should take into account those factors when information of that kind is available. 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Introduction Improving productivity and production practices at the farm level is of particular importance for agrarian economies. An approach to this agenda has centered on promoting adoption of improved farm technology, which is expected to have a significant impact on livelihood improvement and poverty reduction through better income generation (Minten & Barrett, 2008; Ali & Abdulai, 2010). In this regard, a body of literature shows that access to credit plays an important role in encouraging adoption of improved farm technologies and diversifying farm investment for cash-constrained households (Barslund & Tarp, 2008; Herath & Jayasuriya 2010; Abebaw & Haile, 2013). In Cambodia, however, there is limited empirical evidence of the relationship between credit and adoption of agricultural technology. For instance, Theng & Kem (2009) used in-depth interviews to show that households demanded more loans to smooth their food consumption and repay existing debts during a crisis. Lun (2013) used panel household data from nine rural villages to empirically examine the impacts of the global financial and economic downturn on rural households’ demand for loans. The findings reveal that demand for a loan used for farm investment and debt repayment increased during a crisis, and demand for a formal loan was higher than an informal one. The most recent study by Roth, Araar, Sry, & Phann (2017) used difference-in-differences estimator and panel data of eleven villages in Cambodia to evaluate the impact of micro-credit access on expenditure on inputs of paddy production and paddy income. They found that the impact of microcredit access is positive and statistically significant. 109 Also, research studies on improved farm technologies in Cambodia have not been very extensive. Among the few examples, there is a case study by Ngo & Chan (2010) providing an overview of agricultural extension services in two provinces, and a qualitative analysis by Chhim, Theng, & Nou (2013) that explores some of the key constraints to application of agricultural knowledge disseminated by extension agents in Takeo province. Regarding the studies on adoption of modern inputs, Mak (2001) studied the innovation process in rice-based farming systems with a focus on adoption of modern rice varieties, and Theng, Khiev, & Phon (2014) studied the regulatory and market constraints on farmers’ demand for fertilizer. However, those studies also rely on descriptive statistics and case study, which does not provide a rigorous measure of the factors which are negatively or positively associated with adoption decisions. Thus, it is worth studying credit access in the context of joint adoption of modern inputs which I first introduced in the second essay of this dissertation. An empirical problem in adoption research is that from the econometric perspective, some important potential explanatory variables such as access to agricultural extension, participation in a program, and access to credit are subject to endogeneity, which causes empirical results to be biased. Dealing with more than one endogenous variable in a regression equation is not common or even can be infeasible in empirical work(Wooldridge, 2008). If I can only use one, it is wise to choose a factor that I think is likely to have the strongest effect on adoption decision as our variable of interest to estimate its effect on outcome variable, while also using the feasible and appropriate method to minimize the bias. In our study, I use credit for agricultural activities as the variable of interest because of its signification relationship with likelihood of technology adoption in the literature (Tadesse, 2014; Yokouchi & Saito, 2016), and because this linkage has not yet been empirically examined in Cambodia. Hence, with the 110 intention of filling the literature gap, the main objective of this study is to examine the causal linkage between credit and the adoption the interrelated inputs (high-yield variety, chemical fertilizer, and pesticide, herbicide or fungicide) in Cambodia. Building on what I learned in the second paper of this dissertation, this study will also examine whether adoption decisions by farm households for high-yield varieties, chemical fertilizer and pesticide are interdependent. To test for interrelated adoption decisions, we apply the multivariate probit (MVP) regression. For the linkage between credit and the probability of adoption, I use propensity score matching (PSM) to reduce the selection bias of credit, with the household and village characteristics included as the covariates. Then, I run regressions on the matched samples with propensity score weights to estimate the effect of credit for agricultural activities on the adoption of modern inputs by controlling for household and village characteristics as well as province fixed effects. This study is based on a cross-sectional survey from the Census of Agriculture of Cambodia (CAC) 2013, conducted by Cambodia’s National Institute of Statistics (NIS). Thus, to the best of our knowledge, this is the first empirical study in Cambodia that uses the data from this census of agriculture. Also, it should be noted that this essay and the second essay of this dissertation are based on analysis using different datasets. This paper is organized as follows. Following this introduction, section 4.2 contains a literature review about agricultural technology adoption and the effect of credit on the adoption. The Cambodian context of agriculture and rural credit is presented in section 4.3. The conceptual framework and empirical methodology are explained in section 4.4. Section 4.5 describes the data source and descriptive statistics. Section 4.6 focuses on the findings and discussion. The last section concludes the study and provides some policy implications. 111 4.2. Literature review One of the well-known early works on agricultural technology adoption is Griliches's (1957) study of aggregate adoption of hybrid corn in mid-west US. The study focused on the effect of heterogeneity of local conditions on adoption, and the expected profits were also believed to influence the rates of adoption. In this connection, it is worth noting that risk and uncertainty associated with the expected profits are the common constraints to farmers’ decisions to adopt agricultural technology (Smale, Just, & Leathers, 1994; Feder & Umali, 1993; Feder, Just, & Zilberman, 1985). In addition, a flourishing literature reveals that one of the important determinants of modern input adoption is credit access. Drawing on an extensive review from experiences of Asian economies, Herath & Jayasuriya (2010) concluded that subsidized credit programs can be an important mechanism to promote the adoption of agricultural technology, particularly at the early phase. Tadesse (2014) used panel data on 278 households (5,700 plots) from rural Ethiopia to assess the impact of credit access and safety nets on fertilizer adoption. The findings from the instrumental variable approach suggest that having access to credit significantly increases the probability and intensity of fertilizer use. In line with this, by using the instrumental variable approach to address the endogeneity problem, Teklewold, Kassie, & Shiferaw's (2013) empirical study shows that credit constraint is a factor significantly impeding the adoption of the multiple sustainable farming practices, including improved seed varieties and fertilizer in Ethiopia. Applying the treatment-effects model and cross-sectional data of 404 households, Simtowe, Zeller, & Diagne (2009) found credit constraints have a negative impact on the amount of land allocated to hybrid maize in rural Malawi. A recent study by Yokouchi & Saito (2016) also found that using credit for agricultural purposes is positively associated with the adoption of a 112 newly introduced rice variety (called NERICA) in Benin. However, the main objective of that study is to investigate the linkage between participation in farmer group and the adoption decision, so the endogeneity of credit use is not addressed. Concerning the use of credit for agricultural activities, it is worth noting that there are various factors which negatively affect rural credit markets. The first major issue is credit default, which is caused by income shocks such as weather fluctuations (drought or flood) and commodity price shock (Besley, 1998). Hence, farmers who contracted a loan for agricultural production may be unable to repay it because of the shocks, which has a severe effect on credit supply. The second issue is that the majority of farmers mistakenly expect that defaulting on a loan repayment is normal, and oftentimes it happens with a credit program supported by the government (Tadesse, 2014). Third, the enforcement of contracts is also a problem for credit markets. For instance, in practice, it is problematic to use or sell the land seized from the defaulters, due to politics. Another far-reaching problem is the underdevelopment in complementary institutions, such as low levels of literacy, poor communication systems (storage of credit histories), and the limited complementary markets, especially insurance (Besley, 1998). 4.3. Country context 4.3.1. Cambodia’s agriculture Agriculture is a pillar of Cambodia’s economy, and rice is the dominant crop in terms of cultivated area and total production (FAO, 2014). Additionally, the majority of rural livelihoods depend on agriculture despite an increasing trend of labor migration (MAFF, 2015). This sector is characterized by smallholding and subsistence farm activities with most of households owning less than two hectares of land (FAO, 2014). A recent study by the World Bank suggests that growth in Cambodia’s agriculture was pro-poor, because 60 percent of poverty reduction from 113 2007 to 2011 was attributed to larger rice production and increased farm wages (World Bank, 2014). The study further indicates that agricultural development will continue to be a contributor to poverty reduction given its share in the labor force, especially the fact that most of the poorest and more vulnerable households are involved in this sector (World Bank, 2015). There are two main seasons of rice production. In the wet season, rice is planted in June or July and it is harvested in November or December. It is the main season for rice farming because it accounts for approximately 77 percent of annual total rice production and 84 of the rice cultivated area in 2014 (MAFF, 2015). Recently, there has been an expansion of early wet season rice cultivation, which is from June or July to August or September. Dry season rice production, which depends on irrigation, begins in December or January and the harvest is made in April or May. Wet season rice yield was 2.82 tons per hectare while the dry season rice yield was 4.43 tons per hectare in 2014 (MAFF, 2015). The aggregate average rice yield declined by 2.67 percent from 3.163 tons per hectare in 2013 to 3.079 tons per hectare in 2014, due to draught and pests, according to the annual report of the Ministry of Agriculture. This is a case in point of the fact that Cambodian farming system is vulnerable to the extreme climatic shocks such as drought (RGC, 2013), because farmers mainly rely on rain-fed farming. Low productivity remains one of the major challenges of Cambodia’s agriculture because of an underdeveloped irrigation system, lack of agricultural knowledge among farmers about appropriate production techniques, and inadequate use of modern inputs such as fertilizers and seeds (Yu & Fan, 2011; RGC, 2013). Inadequate input use results in part from constraints and challenges facing input markets that increase the costs of agricultural input use. Those challenges include (1) complicated licensing procedures and regulations, (2) and lack of clarity of roles and responsibilities between government institutions in charge of regulating fertilizer trade (Theng, 114 Khiev, et al., 2014). Fertilizer adoption is more common than high-yield varieties (HYV), especially rice production (Yu & Fan, 2011). The limited body of literature about HYV adoption in Cambodia’s rice production has found that rainfall uncertainty is one of the reasons for low adoption, because most of Cambodia’s rice farming systems are rainfed (Mak, 2001; Wang et al., 2012). According to the National Institute of Statistics, Cambodia has four agro-ecological zones: Tonle Sap, Plains, Plateau/Mountain and Coastal region. Rice is mainly planted in the Tonle Sap Zone, which is mostly in two zones: the northwest around Tonle Sap Lake, bordering Thailand, and the Plains Zone, which is in the southeast and borders Vietnam (Yu & Fan, 2011; NIS, 2015). Dry season rice (irrigated rice) is commonly produced in the Plains Zone which accounts for approximately 70 percent of the total cultivated area of this type of rice in Cambodia (Wang et al., 2012). Since dry season rice requires more fertilizer, the proportion of farm households using fertilizers was the highest in the Plains Zone, followed by the Tonle Sap Zone (NIS, 2015). 4.3.2. Cambodia’s rural credit The government of Cambodia considers credit essential for rural livelihood improvements (RGC, 2013), particularly through improving agricultural productivity of liquidity-constrained households. At the same time, limited access to rural credit has been identified as one of key constraints on agricultural development in Cambodia (Sok, Chap, & Chheang, 2011). There are two main sources of credit in rural Cambodia. According to the previous studies in Cambodia, the formal sources are banks and microfinance institutions (MFIs) while informal sources include friends and relatives, moneylenders or farmer groups/cooperatives (Lun, 2013). Loans from moneylenders generally have very high interest 115 rates compared to others (Lun, 2013). A poverty dynamics study in nine rural villages showed that the average monthly interest rate charged by the moneylenders was 6.65 percent in 2011, while the rate charged by NGOs and farmer groups was 2.49 percent and that for MFIs was 2.6 percent (CDRI, 2012). Further, the share of informal loans from moneylenders has declined over the period 2001-2011, due to the expansion of the services provided by formal sources, particularly MFIs. Moneylenders, NGOs and farmer groups are lumped together as informal credit in those previous studies, because most of the credit participating households got loans from more than one source. Then, categorizing loans by formal or informal status is the feasible way in the analysis, and it is also applied to our study. Additionally, in our dataset, there is no information on the amount of loans and the interest rates. In 2011, I had a chance to conduct some key informant interviews and focus group discussions with some members of the self-help groups and the agricultural cooperatives in four provinces. We found that their primary motive to participate in these groups is to build savings and to access short-term emergency loans at lower interest rate rates so that they can reduce their dependence on moneylenders (Theng, Keo, Nou, Sum, & Khiev, 2014). Some the agricultural cooperatives and self-help groups also provide in-kind credit to their members such as seeds, fertilizers, chicks and ducklings. Nonetheless, shortage of capital for credit is a major obstacle to those farmer organizations. The quantitative results of the study confirmed that 83 percent of 330 member households reported that their cooperatives or groups did not have enough capital to extend loans to the members who need to buy agricultural inputs or invest in their farm production (Theng, Keo, et al., 2014). Also, this finding was reinforced by what I observed from the key informant interviews and focus group discussions. In other words, the capital savings of those cooperatives 116 or self-help groups were so limited that the demands of their members could not be met. Some of the cooperatives and farmer groups got the initial capital from their supporting agencies such as NGOs and the provincial department of agriculture. This implies that increasing loan funds in agricultural cooperatives or self-help groups has a potential to promote the adoption of modern inputs or other agricultural technology. This is a characteristic of the economic success story of South Korean agriculture between 1961 and 1975 (Herath & Jayasuriya, 2010). 4.4. Conceptual framework and empirical methodology 4.4.1. Conceptual framework 4.4.1.1. Adoption of interrelated inputs The common characteristic of models conceptualizing farm households’ decisions to adopt agricultural technology is that a household chooses a set of improved farm technologies to maximize the expected utility of profit conditional on the adoption decision (Feder, 1982; Smale, Just, & Leathers, 1994; Feder & Umali, 1993; Ogada, Mwabu, & Muchai, 2014). “Given a perceived output risk related to agricultural technology, and farmer risk aversion, farmers maximize their expected utility through the dichotomous choice of whether or not to adopt the technology” (Feder & Umali, 1993, p. 217). In our study, a household chooses to adopt interrelated inputs together, if the expected utility of profit with this adoption is higher than that of adopting only one of the inputs or neither, and it is expressed in equation (10). [ UE ] ( ) p ! with [ UE ( p without ] ) (equation 10) The study hypothesizes that a household’s decisions to adopt fertilizer and high-yield variety seeds and pesticide (or herbicide or fungicide6 ) are complementary. 6 Pesticide, herbicide and fungicide are represented by the same dichotomous variable in this study. 117 4.4.1.2. Use of credit in agricultural activities The fundamental framework for explaining credit demand is utility maximization (Barslund & Tarp, 2008). According to this framework, households demand credit if they expect that the utility from contracting a loan (A"/&+B) is larger than that without using any loan (A"B&/&+B). In other words, agricultural households demand credit for their agricultural activities if the utility gained from contracting loan (A"/&+B−A"B&/&+B) is greater than 0, and this utility gain is a latent variable which is a function of observed characteristics of households and villages. Using credit to support agricultural activities has been empirically found to have a signification relationship with likelihood of technology adoption, particularly the adoption of modern inputs (Shakya & Flinn, 1985; Herath & Jayasuriya, 2010; Yokouchi & Saito, 2016). That is, the liquidity-constrained farmers contract loans from either formal and informal sources to relax their liquidity problems in farm investment (Feder, Lau, Lin, & Luo, 1990; Simtowe, Zeller, & Diagne, 2009). In general, this idea implies that credit plays a more important role in the adoption of agricultural technology that requires more cash costs. In our study, the modern inputs must be purchased, so farmers need capital to obtain them. Contracting a loan for agricultural activities reduces capital constraints on farm households, therefore improving the financial ability of households to get the needed modern inputs (Barslund & Tarp, 2008; Herath & Jayasuriya, 2010). Further, I hypothesize that the high- yield variety, fertilizer and pesticide are complementary; the joint adoption of these interrelated inputs requires higher cash costs. Therefore, in our study I hypothesize that contracting loans for agricultural production increases the probability of adoption of modern inputs, i.e. high-yield variety, fertilizer and pesticide (also herbicide and fungicide) of cash-constrained households. 118 4.4.2. Empirical methodology 4.4.2.1. Simultaneous adoption To test for simultaneous adoption decisions, the farmer’s choice of interrelated inputs is modeled using the multivariate probit (MVP) model (Dorfman, 1996). The multivariate probit regression allows us to simultaneously run more than one univariate (ordinary) probit model, each of which has only one binary dependent variable. This approach can statistically show whether adoption decisions on the modern inputs are interdependent. Adapted from the empirical studies by Kassie et al. (2013) and Teklewold et al. (2013), the econometric model of multivariate probit regression, characterized by the binary dependent variables for our study, is expressed as follows. Y hi X * = ' hi eb + hi i (11) Y hi = 1 ì í 0 î > Yif 0 * hi otherwise (12) where h represents household level, and i=S, F, and P denotes the input choices (high-yield variety seeds (S), fertilizer (F), pesticide, herbicide or fungicide (P)). Since there are three input choices (three binary dependent variables) which is more than two, this model is called multivariate probit regression. Equation (12) implies that a household (hth)’s latent variable * hiY , which is the net benefit that farm households generates from the adoption of the ith input, is associated with observed household and plot characteristics ( hiX ) and the unobserved characteristics in the error term ( hie ). The error terms of equation (12) jointly follow a multivariate normal distribution with zero conditional mean and variance normalized to unity, with systematic covariance matrix given by: 119 Ω= 1 !H. 1 !.H !IH !I. !HI !.I 1 (equation 13) The specification with non-zero off-diagonal elements in the covariance matrix SFr , SPr and FPr symbolizes the unobservable correlation between the error terms of the three univariate probit equations. In other words, this method allows the error terms of each equation to be freely correlated, which implies whether different inputs complement (positive correlation) or substitute (negative correlation) for each other in the adoption decision. Fundamentally, not only does this method enable us to test for simultaneity of adoption decisions, it also reports the empirical results of each univariate probit regression (Cappellari & Jenkins, 2003). 4.4.2.2. Propensity Score Matching (PSM) In the absence of an experimental design, a household’s use of credit is not random in practice, and there is very likely to be a selection bias problem. As this study uses cross-sectional data, the potential methods to address selection bias are instrumental variables (IV) and propensity score matching (PSM). In principle, the former is preferred to the latter because one can address unobservable selection bias such as differences in motivation to contract loans for agricultural activities if an instrumental variable is available. However, finding a valid instrumental variable that is correlated with getting credit without having a direct effect on adoption of modern inputs is a difficult task empirically. One approach to finding an instrumental variable (IV) is if there are specific eligibility criteria to determine who can obtain credit and who cannot. For example, if holding more than two hectares of land were required in order for a farmer to be eligible for credit, this could be a potential instrumental variable. On the other hand, this kind of criteria, which was used as an 120 instrumental in an Pitt & Khandker's (1998) empirical study on the effect of credit programs in Bangladesh, is not available in Cambodia. Another approach to identifying an IV, which is based on the program placement perspective, includes distance to a source of credit – a bank or an MFI. In practice, nonetheless, most MFI dispatch their credit promotion officials to the villages, so this variable is not a valid IV, from that perspective. Therefore, to examine the causal linkage between credit use and adoption of modern inputs, I use PSM to get the matched samples so as to minimize the selection bias of credit. Then, I run regressions on the samples to estimate the effect of credit on the adoption of modern inputs. The covariates for PSM will include attributes of households and villages, which potentially affect the probability of contracting a loan for agricultural purposes. With this method, I can minimize selection bias by reducing the differences in observable characteristics of the households that used credit to support their agricultural activities and those that did not. I have four treatments characterizing different types of farmers who took loans for agricultural purposes during the last 12 months. They will be compared to a group of control households defined as those that did not contract a loan for agricultural activities during the last 12 months. The four treatment categories are defined as follows: (1) households that contracted loans (from any sources); (2) households with credit only from formal sources such as banks or micro-finance institutions (MFI); (3) households with loans only from informal sources including a friend, relative or money lender or agricultural cooperatives; and (4) household with loans from both types of credit – formal and informal. The four outcome variables for this study are dichotomous adoption variables (1 for adoption; 0 otherwise) for 1) high-yield variety seeds, 2) chemical fertilizer, 3) pesticide/herbicide/or fungicide, and 4) the combination of the three types of modern input. 121 The limitation of PSM is that it is based on the observed characteristics, so it does not deal with unobserved factors affecting the probability that households contract a loan for agricultural activities. However, as indicated by Kuwornu & Owus (2012), after controlling observed covariates, PSM can help reduce (though not eliminate) selection bias resulting from unobserved confounding factors. Further, the sample size for our study (almost 70,000 households across more than 8,000 villages) is exceptionally large and nationally representative. This is a considerable advantage for the PSM approach. More importantly, the sample size of our comparison group is large relative to the treatment group, which enables good matching, therefore improving the precision of our estimates (Heckman, Ichimura, & Todd, 1997; 1998). 4.4.2.3. Regressions on the matched samples After matching, I run regressions on the matched samples to estimate the effects of credit. By doing so, the regressions are weighted by propensity score weights from PSM to minimize the selection bias of credit, and the standard error is clustered at village level to ensure that it is robust for making inference. The propensity score weights are defined as 1/KLMKNOPQRS PTMLN for treatment group and as 1/(1−KLMKNOPQRS PTMLN) for comparison group (Khandker et al., 2010). It should be noted that there are so many village dummies, and most the villages have a small number of households. Thus, I decided to control for village-specific characteristics and province dummies instead of using village dummies in the regressions. To examine the effects of land titling on the adoption of the modern inputs, I use a probit model which can be derived from introducing a latent variable V"∗, which is defined as In practice, we cannot observe V"∗, but instead we observe V", which takes the values of 1 if V"∗> 0, and V"=0 if V"∗≤0. V"∗=X"Y+[" (equation 15) 122 4.5. Data and descriptive statistics 4.5.1. Background on Census of Agriculture of Cambodia (CAC) 2013 The study is based on a survey from the Census of Agriculture of Cambodia (CAC) 2013, which has 6 modules. The first two modules (A and B) were on census basis, and their main purpose is to provide a sampling frame for agricultural surveys. The data in these two modules were collected from approximately 2.6 million households across 14,073 villages, 1,621 communes, and 24 provinces, and this census was conducted from April 14 to May 31, 2013. Four other household-level supplementary modules were on a sample basis with detailed data on growing crops (Form C), raising livestock and poultry (Form D), aquaculture activity (Form E), and socio-economic activities of agricultural households (Form F). Module G, the fifth supplementary module, is the village survey. Our study uses the CAC survey data (supplementary modules C to G). The survey sampling design was a stratified two-stage sampling one in which the first stage units (FSU) were villages in a commune, and households were the second stage units (SSU). FSUs were selected by systematic Probability Proportional to Size with size being the number of households with agricultural holdings. And, the SSUs were systematically selected with a random starting point. The survey involved 98,883 agricultural households across 10,218 villages throughout Cambodia, and it was conducted over the period of November 1-22, 2013. Module G is the village survey which included some village characteristics such as soil types, proneness to any disaster, economic activities, distance to a national road, communication facilities, and presence of NGOs. NIS (2015) explains further details about sampling design and methodology. I managed the sample for our empirical analysis with a focus on the purpose of our study. Its main objective is to examine the effects of agricultural credit on the adoption of modern 123 inputs in rice production. However, the adoption variables were reported at household level, and only adoption of the rice high-yield variety is exactly for rice production. The other modern inputs (chemical fertilizer, and pesticide or herbicide) can be used for other crops besides rice. Due to this limitation, it is worth dropping the households that did not grow rice, for two important reasons. First, by doing so, the empirical results will mainly have implications for rice production which is the most common crop in the sample and Cambodia’s agriculture, and the focus of this paper. Second, excluding the households which did not engage in rice production ensures that I have more comparable data for all observations in the sample. By doing this so, I can also minimize the chance of comparing apples and oranges, which is very important for the impact estimates. After data cleaning and merging, I obtain 69,229 rice farming households across 8,733 villages. There are 23,644 households that contracted loans for agricultural activities during the last 12 months, whereas the other 45,585 households that did not get any agricultural loans within the same period are included in the comparison group. Of the 23,644 households with agricultural loans, 11,012 households got loans from only formal sources (bank or micro-finance institutions –MFI); 6,153 households took loans from only informal sources such as friend, relative, money lender or agricultural cooperative; the rest (6,479 households) used credit from both formal and informal sources. And, it should be noted that these three categories of household with agricultural loans are mutually exclusive in our sample. In addition, I acknowledge that land title is an important covariate for contracting agricultural loans, but the information about land titling was not captured in the CAC survey data (supplementary modules C to G). 124 4.5.2. Definitions and summary of outcome variables and covariates There are four outcome variables for our study. They are a dichotomous adoption variable (1 for adoption; 0 otherwise) for high-yield variety of rice, chemical fertilizer, pesticide/herbicide/or fungicide, and the combination of the three types of modern inputs. For the covariates of PSM, I control for 39 variables including characteristics of households and villages. Definitions of all variables are reported in Table 27 of the appendix (it is in an appendix because it is very long). Tables 28 and 29 of the appendix present descriptive statistics for all variables before matching, and I choose to describe only some main variables. The average adoption rates of high-yield variety for rice, chemical fertilizer, PHF7 (pesticide, herbicides or fungicide) and the combination of the three types of inputs were 26 percent and 78 percent, 37 percent and 13.7 percent, respectively. Households with both types of credit for agricultural purposes had higher adoption rates than those with only formal credit, only informal credit, or no credit (the control households) (Table 29). The average percentage of rice farms with irrigation is higher for households with credit from both sources (37.7 percent) than for households with credit from only formal sources (35 percent), those with loans from only informal sources (26 percent), and the control households (25 percent). Additionally, 14 percent of households participated in a social protection program8 during the last 12 months: 39 percent households with both types of credit, 20 percent of households with only informal credit, 18 percent of those with only formal credit, and only 1 percent of control households (Table 29). 7 Pesticide, herbicide and fungicide were reported by the same dichotomous variable in the survey dataset we got from National Institute of Statistics. 8 This variable is defined as social protection program in general such as cash transfer or work-for-food program. The survey was not particularly designed for any social protection program, because it is a part of the Census of Agriculture. 125 Furthermore, I also control for household characteristics such as demographic situation, livestock assets, sources of income, some modern agricultural tools and access to agricultural extension service by sources such as government, NGO and community-based organizations (CBO). I also include dummy variables for access to information about improved farming practices that could be hypothesized to affect the adoption decision. These include information from television, radio, peers and farmer organizations. The village-specific variables that I control for include distance from the village the nearest national road, seasonal labor movement, flood or drought in the last five years, soil type and agro-ecological zones. 4.6. Empirical results 4.6.1. Simultaneous adoption of the modern inputs This section presents the empirical results estimated with the multivariate probit model. )3(2c =3575.51, P<0.001) of the null hypothesis that the Overall, the likelihood ratio test ( covariance of error terms across the three univariate probit regressions are jointly equal to zero is rejected (Table 21). This result implies that the modern input adoption decisions are not mutually independent (Cappellari & Jenkins, 2003; Teklewold et al., 2013; Kassie et al., 2013). Further, the correlations between error terms of the three adoption equations are shown in Table 21, and their statically significant and positive coefficients suggest that the high-yield rice variety, fertilizer and pesticide or herbicide or fungicide are all complements. !_`a !.(%,"/"0(% - Table 21: Correlation coefficients for MVP regression equations !.(%,"/"0(% !I_. Likelihood ratio test of: !.(%,"/"0(%__`a= !I_.__`a= !I_._.(%,"/"0(%=0 0.165 (0.0197)*** 0.15 (0.0176)*** 0.45 (0.016)*** chi2(3) = 3406.62*** (Significance levels: * 10 percent; ** 5 percent; *** 1 percent) Source: Calculation based on CAC 2013. Clustered robust standard errors in the parenthesis 126 As mentioned in the section presenting the descriptive statistics, on average 26 percent of the 69,229 rice farming households adopted the high-yield variety for rice, which is known as short-duration variety. Seventy-eight percent adopted chemical fertilizer, 37 percent adopted PHF9 (pesticide, herbicides or fungicide), and 13.7 percent adopted the combination of rice, fertilizer and PHF. It is worth noting that fertilizer is very common, but HYV adoption is low, and PHF is in the middle. These adoption rates are consistent with the fact that rice yield increase from 1997 and 2008 was mainly attributed to better access to fertilizer and irrigation expansion, rather than the high-yield varieties (Yu & Fan, 2011). One of the reasons for the low adoption of improved rice varieties is that most of Cambodia’s rice farming is rain-fed, which is vulnerable to drought (Wang et al., 2012). 4.6.2. Getting the matched samples I use propensity score matching (PSM) to get the matched samples to reduce the selection bias of contracting loans based on observable characteristics. There are four treatments characterizing different types of farmers who took loans for agricultural purposes during the last 12 months. As mentioned in section 5, the four treatment categories are defined as follows: (1) households that contracted loans (from any sources); (2) households with credit only from formal sources such as banks or micro-finance institutions (MFI); (3) households with loans only from informal sources including a friend, relative, money lender or agricultural cooperative10; and (4) households with loans from both types of credit – formal and informal. Then, in terms of the outcome variables, we compare each of them to a group of control households defined as those that did not contract a loan for agricultural activities during the last 12 months. Given that it is only 12 months, we are looking at short-term credit, represented by the available information 9 They were reported by the same dichotomous variable in the dataset I got from National Institute of Statistics. 10 This categorization is based on the previous studies in Cambodia. 127 about agricultural credit in our data. Additionally, there is no information that enables us to distinguish farmers who are rich enough so that they do not need short-term credit from those who are very poor and need it but do not take it. In other words, this lack of distinction between farmers regarding their non-use of credit does not enable us to construct a comparison group which should be comprised of the credit-constrained farmers who needed a loan but could not get it. We use the five-nearest-neighbor matching technique because it has good quality matching as shown in Table 22. The useful indications for checking the matching quality are the comparisons of the mean and median of standardized bias, Pseudo-R2 and P-value of likelihood ratio tests before and after matching. As reported in Table 22, the medians and means of absolute bias for all comparisons are below 3 and 5 percent, respectively. These are the standard benchmarks proposed by Caliendo & Kopeinig (2008). Additionally, the Pseudo-R2 from the estimation of propensity score after matching becomes significantly lower after matching. Also, P-value of likelihood ratio tests become insignificant after matching, implying PSM can minimize the systematic differences in the distribution of observable characteristics between the matched groups. The details about the test of matching for each matched sample can be found in Table 30, 31, 32 and 33 of the appendix. This test informs us about the bias reduction in the observable characteristics after the two groups are matched. 128 Before matching After matching Before matching After matching After matching 12.1 8.1 0.086 0.000 9.8 7.8 0.061 0.000 Table 22: Summary of PSM quality indicators from 5 nearest-neighbor matching HHs with any source of credit for agriculture versus Control Group 0.9 0.9 0.001 0.493 HHs with only formal credit for agriculture versus Control Group 0.7 0.8 0.000 1.00 HHs with only informal credit for agriculture versus Control Group 0.6 0.4 0.000 1.000 HHs with both sources of credit for agriculture versus Control Group 1.4 1.3 0.002 0.597 Matching quality indicators Mean absolute bias (%) Median absolute bias (%) Pseudo R2 P-value of LR Matching quality indicators Mean absolute bias (%) Median absolute bias (%) Pseudo R2 P-value of LR Matching quality indicators Mean absolute bias (%) Median absolute bias (%) Pseudo R2 P-value of LR Matching quality indicators Mean absolute bias (%) Median absolute bias (%) Pseudo R2 P-value of LR Source: Calculation based on CAC 2013 Note: LR: Livelihood ratio 12.2 9.6 0.073 0.000 17.8 9.0 0.161 0.000 Before matching Before matching After matching Moreover, we also have a visual comparison of the distribution of the propensity score between treatment and control groups before and after matching as it also shows the quality of matching. Figures 6, 7, 8 and 9 of the appendix illustrate that there is almost perfect overlap in the distribution of estimated propensity scores between the treatment and control households for every matching. The figures after matching are weighted by the propensity score weights, and they are based on the common support observations that have propensity score weight. The best matches are provided by the observations that are on common support (Khandker et al., 2010; Cerulli, 129 2015). The columns reporting the number of observations with a propensity score weight are the ones that provide the best match, and they are ones that are used in our regressions. Table 23: Number of observations in common support region for each matching HHs with any source of credit for agriculture versus Control Group Off support On support On support and with propensity score weight 45,585 22,462 68,047 HHs with only formal credit for agriculture versus Control Group Off support On support On support and with propensity score weight Sample Untreated Treated Total Sample Untreated Treated Total Sample Untreated Treated Total Total 45,585 23,644 69,229 Total 45,585 11,012 56,597 Total 45,585 6,153 51,738 0 1,182 1,182 0 550 550 0 307 307 45,585 22,462 68,047 45,585 10,462 56,047 45,585 5,846 51,431 HHs with only informal credit for agriculture versus Control Group Off support On support On support and with propensity score weight 45,585 10,462 56,047 45,585 5,846 51,431 HHs with both formal and informal credit for agriculture versus Control Group Sample Untreated Treated Total Source: Calculation based on CAC 2013 Total 45,585 6,479 52,064 Off support On support 0 323 323 45,585 6,156 51,741 On support and with propensity score weight 45,585 6,156 51,741 As mentioned in the descriptive statistics section, most farm households have no credit and only a small percentage have the different types of credit. After using PSM, the number of households with credit decreases because some of them are not on common support, and this applies to the four sets of comparisons (Table 23). 4.6.3. Regressions on the matched samples This section presents and discusses the empirical findings. Before proceeding to the regression, it is worth seeing the mean values of the outcome variables by group of households 130 for (1) the whole sample before matching and (2) the common support observations with propensity score weights, which are the ones our regressions rely on. The figures for the sample before matching are reported in Table 24, and those after matching are in Table 25. Table 24: Average modern input adoption rates by group of households (before matching) Control Any source of credit HYV Fertilizer PHF Package of input Source: Calculation based on CAC 2013 0.32 0.85 0.51 0.20 Formal credit 0.32 0.82 0.46 0.18 Informal credit 0.29 0.84 0.48 0.19 Both formal and informal credit 0.34 0.89 0.61 0.24 0.24 0.75 0.37 0.11 Table 25: Average modern input adoption rates by group of households (the common support observations that have propensity score weights) Only formal credit versus control group T C 0.25 0.29 0.76 0.79 0.41 0.32 0.12 0.15 Only informal credit versus control group T C 0.24 0.25 0.75 0.80 0.41 0.31 0.11 0.14 control group T C 0.25 0.31 0.75 0.86 0.48 0.32 0.12 0.20 Any source of credit versus control group T C 0.26 0.29 0.77 0.82 0.44 0.34 0.13 0.16 HYV Fertilizer PHF Package of input Source: Calculation based on CAC 2013 informal credit versus Both formal and The regression results of the impact of credit for agricultural activities on the outcome variables are summarized in Table 26. The details from each regression are in Table 34, 35, 36 and 37 of the appendix. As the tables are long, we report only the results for the credit category in the main paper, as shown in Table 26. It is worth noting the objective of this study is to examine the impact of credit on the adoption of high-yield variety, fertilizer, pesticide or herbicide, so we only interpret and discuss the results of this linkage. The regressions are also weighted by the propensity weights obtained from PSM, as suggested by Khandker, Koolwal, & Samad (2010) so that the treatment and control households are comparable in terms of 131 observable characteristics. The standard error of each regression is clustered at village level so as to get the robust standard error for making inference. The coefficients for probit regressions are reported in terms of marginal probability effects because it is convenient for interpretation. In other words, this approach is the common practice when it comes to the interpretation of the results from either a logit or probit model, because the coefficients imply a linear relationship between dependent and independent variables (Baum, 2006). That is, a parameter estimate is the expected probability that a unit change in variable X will result in in the outcome variable Y equaling 1, with other independent variables held fixed. For example, marginal effects of the probit model for fertilizer show changes in the probability of adopting fertilizer for additional unit change in independent variables. In each regression, we also include province dummies to control for the differences in characteristics across the 24 provinces. Table 26: Impacts of credit for agriculture Variables HYV adoption Fertilizer adoption PHF adoption Package adoption Probit regression (marginal effects) Credit Observations Credit Observations HHs with any source of credit for agriculture versus Control Group 0.0155** (0.0077) 68,047 0.0315*** (0.0056) 68,047 HHs with only formal credit for agriculture versus Control Group 0.0748*** (0.0070) 68,047 0.0225*** (0.0055) 68,047 0.0271*** (0.0089) 56,047 0.0240*** (0.0063) 56,047 HHs with only informal credit for agriculture versus Control Group 0.0651*** (0.0088) 56,047 0.0099 (0.0070) 56,047 Credit Observations -0.0138 (0.0104) 51,431 0.0145** (0.0071) 51,431 HHs with both types of credit for agriculture versus Control Group 0.0524*** (0.0094) 51,431 0.0171** (0.0077) 51,431 Credit Observations Source: Calculation based on CAC 2013 Notes: (1) Clustered robust standard errors in parentheses. (2) *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1 0.0483*** (0.0085) 51,741 0.1078*** (0.0121) 51,741 0.0235* (0.0130) 51,741 0.0571*** (0.0104) 51,741 132 Our empirical results show that, on average, credit for agricultural activities increases the probability of adopting high-yield variety of rice by 1.5 percent, but it is only statistically significant at 10 percent level (Table 26). However, when looking at credit by source, it is only the formal credit and both types of credit that have a positive and significant effect on high-yield rice variety adoption, the effect of formal credit is more robust because it is at the 10 percent significance level. On average, formal credit and both types of credit increase the probability of adoption by almost 3 percent. The positive impact of credit on adoption of a high-yield rice variety seems to be in line with findings by Simtowe, Zeller, & Diagne (2009) that credit access increases the likelihood of adoption of improved seed varieties. They found that after correction for endogeneity, credit constraints have negative and significant effect on adoption of hybrid maize in Malawi. From our data, it is difficult to know the direction that causality goes, because our study draws on cross- sectional data. What we can do is to justify the causality by hypothesizing that contracting agricultural credit reduces capital constraints on farm households, thus increasing the probability of adoption of modern inputs. This idea is conceptualized based on the conceptual framework from the previous studies, as we explained in that section of this chapter. In this regard, a cross- sectional study by Abebaw & Haile (2013) has a similar way to justify the direction of causal relationship between participation in agricultural cooperative and adoption of modern inputs. For example, one of their findings shows that, on average, cooperative membership increases the probability of fertilizer adoption by around 10 percent. We acknowledge that it is worth looking into the cost that farm households spent on those modern inputs. However, our data has no information about this. From the key informant interviews and focus group discussions I conducted for a study about farmer organizations by 133 Theng, et al. (2014), we found that most paddy input expenditure was for fertilizer and pesticides, followed by improved seed varieties. Hence, it implies that fertilizer and PHF requires more capital than the HYV seeds. Our empirical findings further reveal that credit for farm activities has a positive and significant impact on the adoption of fertilizer, but this does not hold true when households only contracted loans from the formal sources. On average, the credit from any source increases the probability of adoption of fertilizer by approximately 2 percent, and it is statistically significant at 1 percent level (Table 26). Also, the informal loans increase the fertilizer adoption rate by around 2 percent at 5 percent significance level. The impact of contracting loans from both formal and informal sources is the most robust, because it increases the probability of fertilizer adoption by around 5 percent at 1 percent significance level. This finding is consistent with the study by Tadesse (2014) which shows that access to credit has a positive and significant effect fertilizer use. For all sets of regressions, the impacts of credit on adoption of pesticide or herbicide or fungicide are positive and statistically significant at 1 percent level. Getting loans for farm activities from any source increases the probability of adopting pesticide or herbicide by around 8 percent. A possible explanation is that farmers need capital to buy PHF and this type of input also accounts for a significant share of paddy input expenditure, so agricultural credit helps reduce financial constraints on farm households to get this type of modern inputs (Barslund & Tarp, 2008; Herath & Jayasuriya, 2010). The effects of formal credit and informal credit are comparable (around 6 percent). Getting credit from both formal and informal sources yields the most robust impact on adoption of pesticide or herbicide. It increases the probability of adoption by around 11 percent at the 1 percent significance level. This is a much bigger effect than on 134 other inputs. A possible explanation that we can speculate on regarding why credit has a significantly higher effect PHF use than other modern inputs is that some farmers may have re- used the improved variety seeds that they produced in the previous season, because they could not afford buy the seeds for all of their plots, as indicated in the second essay. Regarding the adoption of the combination of the three types of modern input, the adoption impact of credit is statistically significant and positive for all sets of comparison. Nonetheless, the impact of formal credit is only statistically significant at 1 percent level. On average, credit for farm activities increases probability of joint adoption of the three types of modern input by around 3 percent (Table 26). Using credit from both formal and informal sources tends to represent the strongest impact on the adoption of the three complementary inputs (6 percent). This finding tends to be consistent with a recent study by Roth et al. (2017), which empirically shows that multiple-source borrowing helps ease cash constraints, inducing credit-participating households to spend more on paddy inputs compared to non-borrowers. The study further reveals that most multiple borrowing households, whose first loan was from formal sources, contracted the second loan from the informal sources. This raises the question of why would a farmer go for both sources of credit if the formal credit is less expensive? A possible explanation is that after contracting a formal loan, a borrower may need more loan to cope with further farm expenditure. Then, it may not be easy for the borrower, who is already in debt, to get another loan from a formal institution such as MFI or bank, which has more demanding conditions. However, due to the lack of information in our data to reinforce this explanation, we leave it for further studies. The empirical evidence of our study shows that using credit from both formal and informal sources yields the strongest impact on adoption of modern inputs. At the same time, we 135 should interpret our empirical results with caution, especially when it comes to informal loans. This is because informal loans from moneylenders are not promoted by the government because of their high interest rates. For instance, when farmers borrow from moneylenders they are charged with an interest rate of more than 6 percent per month, so it is costly for farmers (Lun, 2013). On the other hand, access to credit from informal sources (i.e. friends or relatives) implies that a farmer has good social capital or a larger social network, which is can be a good predictor of technology adoption. As mentioned in section 4.3, a possible mechanism through which the government can promote informal credit for agriculture is the agricultural cooperative. Nonetheless, how to effectively continue promoting affordable credit for farmers through agricultural cooperatives is beyond the scope of this study. 4.7. Conclusions In literature, contracting loans to support agricultural activities is hypothesized to encourage more farm investment including adoption of modern inputs for cash-constrained farmers. Meanwhile, the government of Cambodia considers credit essential for rural livelihood improvements. However, little is known about the causal relationship between credit and adoption of modern inputs especially in rice production, the major crop of Cambodia’s agriculture. More specifically, none of the previous studies in Cambodia focused on the credit access in the context of joint adoption of modern inputs which we introduced in the second essay. Thus, the main objective of this study is to measure the impact of credit on the probability of modern input adoption. Also, we examine whether farm households’ decisions to adopt modern inputs (high-yield variety, chemical fertilizer, pesticide and herbicide) are complementary. To this end, this study draws on the household survey from the Census of Agriculture of Cambodia (CAC) 2013. To test for complementarity of modern inputs, we use 136 multivariate probit regressions. And, to assess the impact of credit, we apply PSM and regressions using the matched samples. Our results indicate that the high-yield rice variety, fertilizer and pesticide or herbicide or fungicide are all complements. Further, credit for agricultural activities has a statistically significant and positive impact on adoption of high-yield rice variety, fertilizer, pesticide (or herbicide/fungicide) and the combination of the three types of modern input. However, the impact on high-yield rice variety adoption is not robust. The impact of credit on adoption of pesticide (or herbicide/fungicide) is the strongest, particularly when farm households use both formal and informal loans. Also, credit yields a positive and statistically significant impact on the adoption of the combination of the three types of modern inputs. Overall, empirical evidence implies that credit helps overcome the budget constraint to use modern inputs. Therefore, our empirical findings suggest that government should continue expanding affordable credit for farm investment including loans for modern agricultural inputs. Promoting access to credit for agriculture, particularly rice production, can be done through both formal and informal credit systems. Formal credit access though bank and microfinance institutions is what the government has been promoting. One of the considerable mechanisms of promoting access to informal loans is through the agricultural cooperative that provides smaller loans to the members who have built savings for lending. There are fewer restrictions to get these loans, so people would use them, especially for smaller loans (Theng, et al., 2014). However, how to improve capital savings for lending to the members of agricultural cooperatives is beyond the scope of this study. Though these empirical results are difficult to explain, our study empirically documents the effect of credit for agricultural activities and the probability of modern input adoption, which 137 contributes to the limited body of literature on the linkage between credit and agricultural technology adoption in the Cambodian context. Some empirical studies came up with estimated results that are not easy to explain, and suggest that further studies be conducted to learn more about the pathways of their empirical findings. For instance, Abebaw & Haile (2013) find that cooperative membership has a positive and significant impact of fertilizer adoption, but the impact on improved seeds and pesticides is not statistically significant. Instead of giving some explanations for the estimation results, this study leaves this work for further research. Likewise, for our study, we expect that further research is needed to answer various interesting questions such as, “Why is formal credit significant for seed but not fertilizer, but informal credit is significant for fertilizer but not seed?” And, “Why does having both sources of credit make the most difference?” 138 APPENDIX 139 Appendix: Extra tables and figures the empirical analysis Table 27: Definitions of outcome variables and covariates Variable Treatment Variable agriculture_credit Formal_credit11 Informal_credit both_types Outcome variables highyield_var fertilizer PHF package_input Definitions 1 if HH contracted loans to support agricultural activities in the last 12 months (from every source) 1 if HH contracted loans from only formal sources: bank or MFI for agricultural activities during the last 12 months 1 if HH contracted loans from only informal sources: relative, friend, lender, cooperative or self-help group for agricultural activities during the last 12 months 1 if HH contracted loans from both types of credit at the same time for agricultural activities during the last 12 months 1 if HH used high-yield variety in crop production during the last 12 months 1 if household used fertilizer in crop production during the 12 months 1 if household used either pesticides, herbicides or fungicides in crop production during the 12 months 1 if household used all the three types of input in crop production during the 12 months Covariates (household and village characteristics) irrigated_farm n_farm cult_area market_produce social_program power_tiller Tractor rice_miller water_pump harvester ext_govt percentage of rice farm with irrigation of a HH number of rice farms/plots of HH rice planted area per household in hectares 1 if HH sold agricultural produce in the last 12 months 1 if HH participated in social protection program: last 12 months 1 if HH owned power tiller 1 if HH owned tractor 1 if HH owned rice miller 1 if HH owned water pump 1 if HH owned harvester 1 HH received agricultural extension service from govt. during the last 12 months 1 HH received agricultural extension service from community-based organization during the last 12 months 1 HH received agricultural extension service from NGOs during the last 12 months 11 It is worth noting that the 3 sub-categories – formal credit only, informal credit only and both types of credit – are mutually exclusive. ext_CBO ext_NGO 140 Table 27 (cont’d) info_radio 1 HH received information on improved farm from radio in the last 12 months 1 HH received information on improved farm from TV in the last 12 months 1 HH received information on improved farm from neighbor/other farmers in the last 12 months farmer_org 1 if one of HH members is a member of FO num_largelivestock number of large livestock: cattle and buffalo num_smalllivestock number of small livestock: pig/goat and so on. Female Age Educ Married Hhsize dep_ratio n_agriactivity 1 if HH head is female age of HH head years of education of household head 1 HH head is married household size dependency ratio: number of dependents/labor force number of HH members whose primary act. in the last 12 months is agriculture number of HH members whose primary act. in the last 12 months is in other industry number of HH members whose primary act. in the last 12 months is in services Distance from the village to the nearest national road (Km) 1 if there is seasonal labor movement in the village 1 if there is NGO in the village 1 if a village experienced flood or draught in the last five years 1 if there is health center in the village 1 there is middle school in the village 1 there is primary school in the village 1 if soil type of the village is fine sandy 1 if household located in plain region 1 if household located in Tonlesap region 1 if household located in mountainous or plateau region info_tv info_peer n_otherindustry n_service distance_road labor_move vil_NGO Disaster healthcenter vil_midschool vil_primschool soil_finesandy Plain Tonlesap Mountain_plateau 141 Table 28: Descriptive statistics for households with agricultural credit Variables highyield_var fertilizer PHF package_input irrigated_farm n_farm cult_area market_produce social_program power_tiller Tractor rice_miller water_pump Harvester ext_govt ext_CBO ext_NGO info_radio info_tv info_peer farmer_org Control 0.236 (0.425) 0.747 (0.435) 0.301 (0.458) 0.105 (0.306) 25.785 (42.522) 2.044 (1.450) 2.608 (5.126) 0.571 (0.495) 0.092 (0.290) 0.238 (0.426) 0.022 (0.146) 0.038 (0.192) 0.156 (0.362) 0.015 (0.123) 0.262 (0.440) 0.092 (0.290) 0.136 (0.343) 0.574 (0.494) 0.490 (0.500) 0.204 (0.403) 0.055 (0.229) Agricultural credit 0.319 (0.466) 0.848 (0.359) 0.505 (0.500) 0.199 (0.399) 33.505 (46.217) 2.032 (1.486) 3.510 (5.517) 0.721 (0.448) 0.244 (0.429) 0.345 (0.475) 0.040 (0.196) 0.042 (0.201) 0.215 (0.411) 0.023 (0.150) 0.435 (0.496) 0.140 (0.347) 0.177 (0.382) 0.703 (0.457) 0.614 (0.487) 0.263 (0.440) 0.142 (0.349) Whole sample 0.264 (0.441) 0.781 (0.413) 0.370 (0.483) 0.137 (0.344) 28.422 (43.971) 2.040 (1.463) 2.916 (5.280) 0.622 (0.485) 0.144 (0.351) 0.274 (0.446) 0.028 (0.165) 0.040 (0.195) 0.176 (0.381) 0.018 (0.133) 0.321 (0.467) 0.109 (0.311) 0.150 (0.357) 0.618 (0.486) 0.532 (0.499) 0.224 (0.417) 0.085 (0.279) 142 Table 28 (cont’d) (4.741) 1.361 num_smallivestock (4.741) 0.175 female (0.380) 46.281 age (12.649) 4.879 educ (3.672) 0.859 Married (0.348) 4.550 Hhsize (1.696) 0.523 dep_ratio (0.574) 2.634 n_agriactivity (1.424) 0.188 n_otherindustry (0.602) 0.284 n_service (0.755) 9.645 distance_road (14.563) 0.762 labor_move (0.426) 0.293 vil_NGO (0.455) 0.691 Disaster (0.462) 0.171 Healthcenter (0.376) 0.180 vil_midschool (0.385) 0.651 vil_primschool (0.477) 0.526 soil_finesandy (0.499) 0.621 plain (0.485) 0.056 Tonlesap (0.230) 0.287 Mountain_plateau (0.452) Source: Calculation based on CAC 2013. Standard deviations in parentheses. (5.178) 1.495 (5.178) 0.164 (0.371) 45.802 (12.098) 5.026 (3.638) 0.883 (0.321) 4.559 (1.679) 0.508 (0.559) 2.791 (1.439) 0.150 (0.538) 0.219 (0.648) 9.019 (12.458) 0.698 (0.459) 0.286 (0.452) 0.727 (0.445) 0.160 (0.367) 0.156 (0.363) 0.676 (0.468) 0.450 (0.498) 0.650 (0.477) 0.069 (0.253) 0.251 (0.434) 143 (4.895) 1.407 (4.895) 0.171 (0.377) 46.118 (12.465) 4.929 (3.661) 0.867 (0.339) 4.553 (1.690) 0.518 (0.569) 2.687 (1.431) 0.175 (0.582) 0.262 (0.721) 9.431 (13.883) 0.740 (0.439) 0.291 (0.454) 0.703 (0.457) 0.167 (0.373) 0.172 (0.378) 0.660 (0.474) 0.500 (0.500) 0.631 (0.483) 0.060 (0.238) 0.275 (0.446) Formal only Informal only Both types Table 29: Descriptive statistics for households by different category of agricultural credit Control Variables 0.236 highyield_var (0.425) 0.747 Fertilizer (0.435) 0.301 PHF (0.458) 0.105 package_input (0.306) irrigated_farm 25.785 (42.522) 2.044 n_farm (1.450) cult_area 2.608 (5.126) 0.571 market_produce (0.495) 0.092 social_program (0.290) 0.238 power_tiller (0.426) 0.022 Tractor (0.146) rice_miller 0.038 (0.192) 0.156 water_pump (0.362) Harvester 0.015 (0.123) 0.262 ext_govt (0.440) 0.092 ext_CBO (0.290) ext_NGO 0.136 (0.343) 0.574 info_radio (0.494) info_tv 0.490 (0.500) 0.204 info_peer (0.403) 0.055 farmer_org (0.229) 0.338 (0.473) 0.895 (0.306) 0.607 (0.488) 0.238 (0.426) 37.733 (47.896) 1.933 (1.419) 3.571 (5.569) 0.793 (0.405) 0.392 (0.488) 0.362 (0.481) 0.033 (0.179) 0.052 (0.223) 0.211 (0.408) 0.023 (0.149) 0.547 (0.498) 0.233 (0.423) 0.217 (0.412) 0.797 (0.402) 0.710 (0.454) 0.320 (0.467) 0.225 (0.417) 0.294 (0.456) 0.842 (0.365) 0.478 (0.500) 0.189 (0.392) 26.032 (42.819) 2.109 (1.499) 3.649 (4.988) 0.696 (0.460) 0.200 (0.400) 0.386 (0.487) 0.038 (0.191) 0.034 (0.182) 0.166 (0.372) 0.021 (0.142) 0.372 (0.483) 0.121 (0.327) 0.151 (0.358) 0.679 (0.467) 0.583 (0.493) 0.292 (0.455) 0.099 (0.298) 0.322 (0.467) 0.823 (0.382) 0.461 (0.498) 0.182 (0.386) 35.194 (46.562) 2.048 (1.514) 3.396 (5.761) 0.693 (0.461) 0.181 (0.385) 0.311 (0.463) 0.045 (0.208) 0.040 (0.197) 0.245 (0.430) 0.025 (0.155) 0.404 (0.491) 0.096 (0.294) 0.168 (0.374) 0.662 (0.473) 0.574 (0.494) 0.214 (0.410) 0.117 (0.321) 144 Table 29 (cont’d) num_smallivestock female age educ Married Hhsize dep_ratio n_agriactivity n_otherindustry n_service distance_road labor_move vil_NGO Disaster Healthcenter vil_midschool vil_primschool soil_finesandy plain Tonlesap Mountain_plateau Source: Calculation based on CAC 2013. Standard deviations in parentheses. (4.860) 1.548 (5.301) 0.164 (0.371) 45.875 (11.887) 5.144 (3.573) 0.888 (0.315) 4.585 (1.691) 0.500 (0.553) 2.812 (1.416) 0.191 (0.608) 0.227 (0.668) 9.377 (12.598) 0.723 (0.448) 0.301 (0.459) 0.712 (0.453) 0.155 (0.362) 0.158 (0.365) 0.650 (0.477) 0.478 (0.500) 0.663 (0.473) 0.060 (0.237) 0.243 (0.429) (5.725) 1.783 (5.802) 0.169 (0.375) 46.100 (12.180) 5.223 (3.807) 0.883 (0.322) 4.471 (1.659) 0.482 (0.545) 2.826 (1.462) 0.117 (0.486) 0.236 (0.673) 8.868 (12.174) 0.697 (0.460) 0.271 (0.445) 0.724 (0.447) 0.173 (0.379) 0.160 (0.366) 0.693 (0.461) 0.437 (0.496) 0.601 (0.490) 0.072 (0.259) 0.300 (0.458) (5.232) 1.098 (4.126) 0.160 (0.367) 45.359 (12.372) 4.607 (3.539) 0.875 (0.331) 4.605 (1.675) 0.550 (0.584) 2.717 (1.453) 0.112 (0.443) 0.185 (0.580) 8.537 (12.483) 0.654 (0.476) 0.274 (0.446) 0.759 (0.428) 0.156 (0.362) 0.149 (0.356) 0.707 (0.455) 0.412 (0.492) 0.677 (0.468) 0.081 (0.272) 0.215 (0.411) 145 (4.741) 1.361 (4.741) 0.175 (0.380) 46.281 (12.649) 4.879 (3.672) 0.859 (0.348) 4.550 (1.696) 0.523 (0.574) 2.634 (1.424) 0.188 (0.602) 0.284 (0.755) 9.645 (14.563) 0.762 (0.426) 0.293 (0.455) 0.691 (0.462) 0.171 (0.376) 0.180 (0.385) 0.651 (0.477) 0.526 (0.499) 0.621 (0.485) 0.056 (0.230) 0.287 (0.452) Table 30: Test for matching quality (impact of credit from any sources) Variables Treated Control %bias % reduc. Sample Unmatched irrigated_farm Matched Unmatched n_farm Matched Unmatched cult_area Matched Unmatched market_produce Matched Unmatched social_program Matched Unmatched power_tiller Matched Unmatched Tractor Matched Unmatched rice_miller Matched Unmatched water_pump Matched Unmatched Harvester Matched Unmatched ext_govt Matched Unmatched ext_CBO Matched Unmatched ext_NGO Matched Unmatched info_radio Matched Unmatched info_tv Matched Unmatched info_peer Matched Unmatched farmer_org Matched num_largelivestock Unmatched Matched num_smallivestock Unmatched Matched female Unmatched Matched age Unmatched 33.50 32.96 2.032 2.034 3.510 3.347 0.721 0.708 0.244 0.209 0.345 0.332 0.041 0.036 0.042 0.042 0.215 0.210 0.023 0.022 0.435 0.408 0.140 0.129 0.177 0.173 0.703 0.670 0.614 0.599 0.263 0.253 0.142 0.112 3.167 3.218 1.496 1.450 0.164 0.164 45.802 25.785 33.069 2.044 2.042 2.608 3.457 0.571 0.7083 0.093 0.206 0.238 0.339 0.022 0.038 0.038 0.041 0.156 0.207 0.015 0.024 0.262 0.406 0.092 0.125 0.136 0.175 0.574 0.696 0.490 0.603 0.204 0.260 0.055 0.107 4.15 3.250 1.361 1.503 0.175 0.162 46.281 17.4 -0.2 -0.8 -0.5 16.9 -2.1 31.9 0.0 41.4 1.0 23.7 -1.6 10.6 -1.6 1.9 0.7 15.4 0.8 5.6 -1.4 37.0 0.4 14.8 1.3 11.2 -0.5 27.1 -1.4 25.0 -0.8 14.0 -1.3 29.3 1.9 -17.1 -0.6 2.7 -1.1 -2.7 0.7 -3.9 146 |bias| 98.6 31.7 87.9 99.9 97.7 93.5 85.3 65.8 94.8 74.4 98.8 91.0 95.8 94.7 96.7 90.7 93.5 96.8 60.9 75.0 T-stat 21.98*** -0.25 -0.99 -0.57 21.39*** -1.85 39.18*** 0.04 54.98*** 0.93 30.13 -1.57 13.89*** -1.51 2.45** 0.70 19.57*** 0.80 7.25*** -1.40 47.00*** 0.45 19.06*** 1.36 14.18*** -0.48 33.36*** -1.55 31.06*** -0.88 17.73*** -1.34 39.07*** 1.92* -20.82*** -0.67 3.43*** -1.08 -3.37*** 0.73 -4.79*** -1.0 4.0 0.6 7.3 0.2 0.5 -1.5 -2.5 0.1 11.0 -0.9 -6.6 0.2 -9.3 1.1 -4.6 -1.1 -14.5 1.5 -1.7 -0.2 8.0 0.3 -2.8 -1.2 -6.5 -0.6 5.3 -0.9 -15.3 0.8 5.9 1.2 5.1 -2.0 -8.1 -0.1 74.8 85.4 97.2 -199.1 96.3 92.1 97.3 88.2 77.0 89.8 88.6 96.6 56.7 91.3 82.7 94.7 80.4 61.1 99.0 -1.04 5.03*** 0.63 8.94*** 0.22 0.64 -1.64 -3.14*** 0.10 13.75 -0.91 -8.07*** 0.20 -11.30*** 1.26 -5.63*** -1.16 -18.35*** 1.52 -2.10** -0.20 9.98*** 0.29 -3.50*** -1.29 -8.02*** -0.61 6.60*** -0.98 -19.08*** 0.86 7.31*** 1.23 6.48*** -1.98** -10.07*** -0.09 45.836 5.026 4.992 0.883 0.881 4.559 4.559 0.508 0.512 2.791 2.781 0.150 0.153 0.219 0.224 9.019 9.076 0.698 0.704 0.286 0.288 0.727 0.721 0.160 0.163 0.156 0.156 0.677 0.672 0.450 0.455 0.650 0.652 0.069 0.069 0.251 0.249 Matched Unmatched Matched Unmatched Matched Unmatched Matched Unmatched Matched Unmatched Matched Unmatched Matched Unmatched Matched Unmatched Matched Unmatched Matched Unmatched Matched Unmatched Matched Unmatched Matched Unmatched Matched Unmatched Matched Unmatched Matched Unmatched Matched Unmatched Matched Unmatched Matched Table 30 (cont’d) 45.957 4.879 educ 4.970 0.859 Married 0.880 4.550 Hhsize 4.585 0.523 dep_ratio 0.511 2.634 n_agriactivity 2.793 0.188 n_otherindustry 0.152 0.284 n_service 0.216 9.645 distance_road 9.220 0.762 labor_move 0.697 0.293 vil_NGO 0.289 0.691 Disaster 0.719 0.171 Healthcenter 0.167 0.181 vil_midschool 0.158 0.651 vil_primschool 0.676 0.526 soil_finesandy 0.451 0.621 plain 0.647 0.0562 Tonlesap 0.074 0.287 Mountain_plateau 0.248 Source: Calculation based on CAC 2013. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1 147 Table 31: Test for matching quality (impact of getting only formal credit) Variables Treated Control %bias % reduc. Sample Unmatched irrigated_farm Matched Unmatched n_farm Matched Unmatched cult_area Matched Unmatched market_produce Matched Unmatched social_program Matched Unmatched power_tiller Matched Unmatched Tractor Matched Unmatched rice_miller Matched Unmatched water_pump Matched Unmatched Harvester Matched Unmatched ext_govt Matched Unmatched ext_CBO Matched Unmatched ext_NGO Matched Unmatched info_radio Matched Unmatched info_tv Matched Unmatched info_peer Matched Unmatched farmer_org Matched num_largelivestock Unmatched Matched num_smallivestock Unmatched Matched Unmatched female Matched Unmatched age 35.194 33.453 2.048 2.049 3.396 3.253 0.693 0.681 0.181 0.159 0.311 0.302 0.045 0.038 0.040 0.039 0.245 0.227 0.025 0.022 0.404 0.377 0.096 0.099 0.168 0.168 0.662 0.648 0.574 0.560 0.214 0.218 0.117 0.095 2.997 3.049 1.548 1.515 0.165 0.163 45.875 25.785 33.849 2.044 2.045 2.608 3.179 0.571 0.685 0.093 0.164 0.238 0.306 0.022 0.038 0.038 0.040 0.156 0.231 0.015 0.022 0.262 0.380 0.092 0.101 0.136 0.167 0.574 0.654 0.490 0.568 0.204 0.223 0.056 0.090 4.15 3.105 1.361 1.524 0.175 0.160 46.281 21.1 -0.9 0.3 0.3 14.5 1.3 25.6 -0.8 26.0 -1.6 16.6 -0.8 13.1 0.5 1.1 -0.5 22.5 -1.1 6.7 0.1 30.6 -0.8 1.1 -0.9 8.8 0.3 18.1 -1.3 16.9 -1.8 2.3 -1.2 22.1 2.0 -20.7 -1.0 3.7 -0.2 -2.7 0.8 -3.3 148 |bias| 95.8 -22.1 90.7 97.0 94.0 95.1 96.3 49.9 94.9 98.6 97.5 17.7 97.2 93.1 89.6 47.9 90.8 95.1 94.7 71.7 T-stat 20.45*** -0.62 0.25 0.23 14.13*** 0.96 23.63*** -0.57 26.90*** -1.04 16.04*** -0.57 13.86*** 0.33 1.01 -0.38 22.33*** -0.78 6.80*** 0.07 29.80*** -0.54 1.00 -0.61 8.52*** 0.17 16.79*** -0.92 15.87*** -1.27 2.22** -0.87 23.24*** 1.42 -18.2*** -0.87 3.63*** -0.13 -2.53** 0.56 -3.06*** -0.3 7.3 -0.5 8.9 -1.4 2.1 -0.5 -3.9 0.8 12.6 -0.0 0.5 0.8 -8.0 0.0 -2.0 0.5 -9.0 0.5 1.6 0.8 4.5 1.1 -4.2 -0.3 -5.9 0.1 -0.3 0.9 -9.6 0.2 8.7 -0.3 1.5 0.2 -10.0 0.2 90.6 93.6 83.8 76.6 80.2 99.6 -50.1 99.9 75.9 94.2 51.7 76.1 93.0 97.6 -166.7 97.8 96.2 83.6 97.5 -0.23 6.86*** -0.34 8.10*** -1.09 1.95* -0.35 -3.66*** 0.57 11.82*** -0.03 0.50 0.56 -7.27*** 0.00 -1.78* 0.35 -8.65*** 0.37 1.52 0.56 4.25*** 0.79 -3.90*** -0.22 -5.51*** 0.11 -0.32 0.65 -9.01*** 0.15 8.10*** -0.24 1.38 0.17 -9.29*** 0.18 45.912 5.145 5.079 0.889 0.886 4.586 4.585 0.501 0.506 2.812 2.778 0.191 0.194 0.227 0.235 9.377 9.479 0.723 0.730 0.301 0.30 0.712 0.708 0.155 0.157 0.158 0.158 0.650 0.651 0.479 0.482 0.663 0.659 0.060 0.061 0.243 0.247 Matched Unmatched Matched Unmatched Matched Unmatched Matched Unmatched Matched Unmatched Matched Unmatched Matched Unmatched Matched Unmatched Matched Unmatched Matched Unmatched Matched Unmatched Matched Unmatched Matched Unmatched Matched Unmatched Matched Unmatched Matched Unmatched Matched Unmatched Matched Unmatched Matched Table 31 (cont’d) 45.951 4.879 educ 5.096 0.859 Married 0.859 4.550 Hhsize 4.593 0.523 dep_ratio 0.502 2.634 n_agriactivity 2.778 0.188 n_otherindustry 0.189 0.284 n_service 0.235 9.645 distance_road 9.415 0.762 labor_move 0.728 0.293 vil_NGO 0.296 0.691 Disaster 0.703 0.171 Healthcenter 0.158 0.181 vil_midschool 0.157 0.651 vil_primschool 0.647 0.526 soil_finesandy 0.481 0.621 plain 0.660 0.056 Tonlesap 0.060 0.287 Mountain_plateau 0.246 Source: Calculation based on CAC 2013. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1 149 Table 32: Test for matching quality (impact of getting only informal credit) Variables Treated Control %bias % reduc. Sample Unmatched irrigated_farm Matched Unmatched n_farm Matched Unmatched cult_area Matched Unmatched market_produce Matched Unmatched social_program Matched Unmatched power_tiller Matched Unmatched Tractor Matched Unmatched rice_miller Matched Unmatched water_pump Matched Unmatched Harvester Matched Unmatched ext_govt Matched Unmatched ext_CBO Matched Unmatched ext_NGO Matched Unmatched info_radio Matched Unmatched info_tv Matched Unmatched info_peer Matched Unmatched farmer_org Matched num_largelivestock Unmatched Matched num_smallivestock Unmatched Matched female Unmatched Matched age Unmatched 26.032 26.545 2.109 2.101 3.650 3.452 0.696 0.681 0.200 0.174 0.386 0.363 0.038 0.031 0.034 0.036 0.166 0.170 0.021 0.020 0.372 0.357 0.121 0.123 0.151 0.155 0.679 0.665 0.583 0.567 0.292 0.273 0.099 0.090 3.181 3.282 1.098 1.126 0.160 0.164 45.359 25.785 26.044 2.044 2.095 2.608 3.455 0.571 0.677 0.093 0.174 0.238 0.361 0.022 0.032 0.038 0.035 0.156 0.169 0.015 0.019 0.262 0.354 0.092 0.116 0.136 0.150 0.574 0.660 0.490 0.568 0.204 0.271 0.056 0.089 4.15 3.269 1.361 1.144 0.175 0.163 46.281 0.6 1.2 4.4 0.4 20.6 -0.1 26.2 0.7 30.9 -0.2 32.3 0.3 9.6 -0.5 -2.1 0.7 2.9 0.2 3.9 0.3 23.8 0.5 9.4 2.2 4.2 1.6 21.7 0.9 18.6 -0.2 20.4 0.5 16.3 0.2 -16.9 0.2 -5.9 -0.4 -3.9 0.2 -7.4 150 |bias| -102.5 90.3 99.7 97.2 99.5 99.1 95.2 67.2 92.7 92.8 97.8 76.0 62.7 95.8 98.8 97.4 98.9 98.6 92.9 94.9 T-stat 0.43 0.63 3.31*** 0.23 15.01*** -0.03 18.80*** 0.41 26.06*** -0.08 25.13*** 0.15 7.91*** -0.24 -1.53 0.38 2.19** 0.11 3.07*** 0.15 18.22*** 0.28 7.25*** 1.16 3.14*** 0.82 15.63*** 0.50 13.65*** -0.12 15.80*** 0.28 13.40*** 0.09 -11.69*** 0.14 -4.14*** -0.25 -2.86*** 0.11 -5.38*** 45.392 4.607 4.615 0.875 0.871 4.605 4.586 0.550 0.547 2.717 2.720 0.112 0.117 0.185 0.193 8.537 8.674 0.654 0.665 0.274 0.279 0.759 0.754 0.156 0.160 0.149 0.154 0.707 0.699 0.412 0.427 0.677 0.670 0.081 0.081 0.215 0.220 Matched Unmatched Matched Unmatched Matched Unmatched Matched Unmatched Matched Unmatched Matched Unmatched Matched Unmatched Matched Unmatched Matched Unmatched Matched Unmatched Matched Unmatched Matched Unmatched Matched Unmatched Matched Unmatched Matched Unmatched Matched Unmatched Matched Unmatched Matched Unmatched Matched Table 32 (cont’d) -0.1 45.401 -7.5 4.879 educ 0.0 4.614 4.7 0.859 Married -0.6 0.873 3.2 4.550 Hhsize -0.2 4.589 0.523 4.8 dep_ratio 0.546 0.1 2.634 5.8 n_agriactivity 0.4 2.714 -14.3 0.188 n_otherindustry 0.1 0.116 0.284 -14.6 n_service 0.1 0.193 -8.2 9.645 distance_road 8.839 -1.2 -23.9 0.762 labor_move -0.0 0.665 -4.3 0.293 vil_NGO 0.282 -0.6 15.4 0.691 Disaster 1.0 0.749 0.171 -4.1 Healthcenter 2.2 0.151 -8.5 0.181 vil_midschool 1.1 0.150 0.651 11.9 vil_primschool 0.5 0.697 -23.0 0.526 soil_finesandy 0.427 0.1 11.7 0.621 plain -0.6 0.673 0.056 9.7 Tonlesap 0.8 0.079 -16.8 0.287 Mountain_plateau 0.219 0.2 Source: Calculation based on CAC 2013. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1 151 99.0 99.6 86.5 95.0 97.2 93.0 99.1 99.7 85.1 99.9 85.4 93.7 45.8 87.6 96.2 99.5 94.5 91.5 98.6 -0.04 -5.48*** 0.02 3.39*** -0.35 2.36** -0.09 3.54*** 0.07 4.28*** 0.22 -9.52*** 0.08 -9.84*** 0.03 -5.69*** -0.69 -18.39*** -0.02 -3.12*** -0.34 11.01*** 0.54 -2.99*** 1.23 -6.07*** 0.59 8.63*** 0.25 -16.83*** 0.06 8.46*** -0.35 7.63*** 0.42 -11.95*** 0.13 Table 33: Test for matching quality (impact of getting both formal and informal credit) Variables Treated Control %bias % reduc. Sample Unmatched irrigated_farm Matched Unmatched n_farm Matched Unmatched cult_area Matched Unmatched market_produce Matched Unmatched social_program Matched Unmatched power_tiller Matched Unmatched Tractor Matched Unmatched rice_miller Matched Unmatched water_pump Matched Unmatched Harvester Matched Unmatched ext_govt Matched Unmatched ext_CBO Matched Unmatched ext_NGO Matched Unmatched info_radio Matched Unmatched info_tv Matched Unmatched info_peer Matched Unmatched farmer_org Matched num_largelivestock Unmatched Matched Unmatched num_smallivestock Matched Unmatched female Matched Unmatched age 37.733 38.218 1.933 1.94 3.571 3.446 0.793 0.782 0.392 0.361 0.362 0.350 0.033 0.031 0.052 0.052 0.211 0.214 0.023 0.022 0.547 0.524 0.233 0.205 0.217 0.209 0.797 0.787 0.710 0.698 0.320 0.304 0.225 0.185 3.444 3.503 1.783 1.642 0.169 0.169 46.100 26.4 25.785 40.176 -4.3 -7.7 2.044 1.981 -2.9 18.0 2.608 -1.7 3.536 49.1 0.571 1.4 0.776 74.7 0.092 1.2 0.355 27.5 0.238 -1.5 0.360 7.0 0.022 -1.3 0.034 6.8 0.038 2.2 0.047 14.3 0.156 0.3 0.213 5.3 0.015 -1.5 0.024 60.7 0.262 1.3 0.518 38.7 0.092 -1.1 0.208 21.2 0.136 -3.3 0.222 49.4 0.574 -2.1 0.796 45.9 0.490 0.4 0.696 26.6 0.204 -1.3 0.310 50.3 0.055 0.184 0.2 4.150 -11.8 3.498 0.1 8.0 1.361 0.0 1.641 0.175 -1.6 -0.6 0.171 46.281 -1.5 152 |bias| 83.6 62.7 90.7 97.3 98.4 94.4 81.0 67.3 97.7 71.0 97.8 97.2 84.5 95.8 99.1 95.1 99.5 99.3 99.8 62.0 T-stat 20.82*** -2.26** -5.79*** -1.65* 14.00*** -0.79 34.52*** 0.82 70.29*** 0.57 21.71*** -0.81 5.75*** -0.68 5.46*** 1.19 11.32*** 0.17 4.34*** -0.78 48.01 0.70 34.16*** -0.53 17.15*** -1.68* 34.65*** -1.28 33.42*** 0.23 21.25*** -0.69 49.05*** 0.11 -8.64*** 0.05 6.51*** 0.01 -1.17 -0.33 -1.08 0.6 9.2 0.3 7.0 0.3 -4.7 0.6 -7.3 1.6 13.3 -1.7 -12.9 0.4 -6.7 1.7 -5.8 2.0 -14.7 2.8 -4.9 0.4 7.2 1.1 0.7 -3.2 -5.6 -1.2 8.8 0.5 -17.8 -0.2 -4.1 2.1 6.6 -5.0 2.8 0.9 55.5 97.2 96.3 87.4 78.1 87.5 97.3 73.9 65.4 80.7 92.3 84.7 -366.2 78.0 94.8 98.8 49.7 24.6 67.2 0.36 7.04*** 0.14 5.13*** 0.15 -3.54*** 0.34 -5.39*** 0.91 10.13*** -0.91 -9.04*** 0.22 -4.81*** 1.03 -4.09*** 1.19 -11.4*** 1.52 -3.66*** 0.21 5.38*** 0.62 0.51 -1.72* -4.11*** -0.69 6.57*** 0.26 -13.4*** -0.12 -3.14*** 1.16 5.22*** -2.52 2.11** 0.51 46.11 5.223 5.155 0.883 0.881 4.471 4.474 0.482 0.484 2.826 2.818 0.117 0.118 0.236 0.237 8.868 8.922 0.697 0.699 0.271 0.272 0.724 0.717 0.173 0.176 0.160 0.159 0.693 0.690 0.437 0.434 0.601 0.620 0.072 0.072 0.300 0.281 Matched Unmatched Matched Unmatched Matched Unmatched Matched Unmatched Matched Unmatched Matched Unmatched Matched Unmatched Matched Unmatched Matched Unmatched Matched Unmatched Matched Unmatched Matched Unmatched Matched Unmatched Matched Unmatched Matched Unmatched Matched Unmatched Matched Unmatched Matched Unmatched Matched Table 33 (cont’d) 46.029 4.879 educ 5.145 0.859 Married 0.880 4.550 Hhsize 4.464 0.523 dep_ratio 0.475 2.634 n_agriactivity 2.842 0.188 n_otherindustry 0.116 0.284 n_service 0.225 9.645 distance_road 8.654 0.762 labor_move 0.686 0.293 vil_NGO 0.270 0.691 Disaster 0.712 0.171 Healthcenter 0.188 0.180 vil_midschool 0.164 0.651 vil_primschool 0.688 0.526 soil_finesandy 0.435 0.621 plain 0.609 0.056 Tonlesap 0.085 0.287 Mountain_plateau 0.277 Source: Calculation based on CAC 2013. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1 153 Figure 6: Distribution of propensity scores for matching between treatment group (HHs with any category of agricultural credit) and control group Kernel density estimate Kernel density estimate 4 3 y t i s n e D 2 1 0 0 .2 .8 psmatch2: Propensity Score .6 .4 4 3 y t i s n e D 2 1 1 0 0 .2 .8 psmatch2: Propensity Score .6 .4 1 Kernel density estimate kdensity _pscore Kernel density estimate kdensity _pscore kernel = epanechnikov, bandwidth = 0.0201 kernel = epanechnikov, bandwidth = 0.0183 Source: Calculation based on CAC 2013. Figure 7: Distribution of propensity scores for matching between Treatment Group (HHs with only formal credit for agriculture) and control group Kernel density estimate Kernel density estimate 6 6 4 y t i s n e D 2 0 0 4 y t i s n e D 2 .8 0 0 .2 .4 psmatch2: Propensity Score .6 .2 .4 .6 psmatch2: Propensity Score Kernel density estimate kdensity _pscore Kernel density estimate kdensity _pscore kernel = epanechnikov, bandwidth = 0.0164 kernel = epanechnikov, bandwidth = 0.0139 Source: Calculation based on CAC 2013. 154 .8 Figure 8: Distribution of propensity scores for matching between Treatment Group (HHs with only informal credit for agriculture) and control group Kernel density estimate Kernel density estimate 0 1 8 6 y t i s n e D 4 2 0 0 0 1 8 6 y t i s n e D 4 2 .8 0 0 .2 .4 psmatch2: Propensity Score .6 .2 psmatch2: Propensity Score .4 .6 .8 Kernel density estimate kdensity _pscore Kernel density estimate kdensity _pscore kernel = epanechnikov, bandwidth = 0.0162 kernel = epanechnikov, bandwidth = 0.0135 Source: Calculation based on CAC 2013. Figure 9: Distribution of propensity scores for matching between Treatment Group (HHs with both types of credit for agriculture) and control group Kernel density estimate Kernel density estimate 0 1 8 6 y t i s n e D 4 2 0 0 .2 .8 psmatch2: Propensity Score .6 .4 0 1 8 6 y t i s n e D 4 2 0 1 0 .2 .8 psmatch2: Propensity Score .4 .6 Kernel density estimate kdensity _pscore Kernel density estimate kdensity _pscore kernel = epanechnikov, bandwidth = 0.0297 kernel = epanechnikov, bandwidth = 0.0263 Source: Calculation based on CAC 2013. 155 1 Probit regression12 (Marginal effects) HYV adoption 0.0155** (0.0077) 0.0007*** (0.0001) 0.0143*** (0.0025) 0.0030*** (0.0007) 0.0606*** (0.0094) 0.1172*** (0.0134) 0.0035 (0.0082) 0.0288* (0.0170) 0.0436** (0.0183) 0.0222** (0.0098) 0.0399*** (0.0152) 0.0663*** (0.0097) 0.0271** (0.0132) 0.0049 (0.0110) -0.0755*** (0.0108) 0.0382*** (0.0103) 0.0521*** (0.0103) 0.0410*** (0.0136) Table 34: Impact of credit for agriculture (from any sources) Variables treated irrigated_farm n_farm cult_area market_produce social_program power_tiller tractor rice_miller water_pump harvester ext_govt ext_CBO ext_NGO info_radio info_tv info_peer farmer_org num_largelivestock 0.0006 (0.0006) num_smalllivestock -0.0001 12 This regression is based on the sample of common support observations having propensity score weights. This is also the case for Table 35, 36, and 37 Pest adoption Package adoption 0.0748*** (0.0070) 0.0018*** (0.0001) 0.0081*** (0.0021) 0.0028*** (0.0006) 0.0264*** (0.0084) 0.1137*** (0.0116) 0.0186** (0.0076) 0.0247* (0.0148) -0.0782*** (0.0157) 0.0977*** (0.0086) 0.0346** (0.0162) 0.0344*** (0.0091) 0.1100*** (0.0119) -0.0140 (0.0099) 0.0066 (0.0108) 0.0567*** (0.0098) 0.1001*** (0.0091) -0.0323*** (0.0122) 0.0007 (0.0006) 0.0009** 0.0315*** (0.0056) 0.0009*** (0.0001) 0.0087*** (0.0017) 0.0023*** (0.0005) 0.0294*** (0.0072) 0.0813*** (0.0089) 0.0138** (0.0060) 0.0389*** (0.0113) -0.0066 (0.0126) 0.0434*** (0.0065) 0.0247** (0.0100) 0.0373*** (0.0070) 0.0440*** (0.0094) -0.0079 (0.0077) -0.0417*** (0.0080) 0.0306*** (0.0074) 0.0420*** (0.0071) 0.0166* (0.0094) 0.0003 (0.0004) -0.0002 Fertilizer 0.0225*** (0.0055) 0.0006*** (0.0001) 0.0157*** (0.0021) 0.0001 (0.0005) 0.0382*** (0.0063) 0.0373*** (0.0121) 0.0310*** (0.0067) -0.0412*** (0.0116) -0.0331** (0.0136) 0.0324*** (0.0074) 0.0109 (0.0153) 0.0465*** (0.0071) 0.0029 (0.0108) 0.0101 (0.0082) -0.0133* (0.0070) 0.0201*** (0.0070) 0.0251*** (0.0076) 0.0092 (0.0094) -0.0014*** (0.0004) 0.0003 156 Table 34 (cont’d) female age educ married hhsize dep_ratio n_agriactivity n_otherindustry n_service distance_road labor_move vil_NGO disaster healthcenter vil_midschool vil_primschool soil_finesandy plain Tonlesap Mountain_plateau Observations Source: Calculation based on CAC 2013. Notes: (1) Clustered robust standard errors in parentheses. (2) *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1 (0.0004) -0.0040 (0.0057) 0.0003** (0.0001) 0.0019*** (0.0007) 0.0025 (0.0059) -0.0044*** (0.0016) -0.0011 (0.0032) 0.0021 (0.0022) 0.0158*** (0.0043) -0.0011 (0.0036) -0.0007** (0.0003) -0.0230*** (0.0089) -0.0007 (0.0075) 0.0019 (0.0079) 0.0061 (0.0101) -0.0056 (0.0105) 0.0011 (0.0076) -0.0136* (0.0074) 0.0008 (0.0165) 0.0151 (0.0219) -0.0487*** (0.0172) 68,047 (0.0005) 0.0021 (0.0081) 0.0006*** (0.0002) 0.0019** (0.0009) 0.0043 (0.0081) 0.0082*** (0.0022) -0.0192*** (0.0044) -0.0130*** (0.0031) -0.0317*** (0.0059) -0.0275*** (0.0048) 0.0002 (0.0004) -0.0209* (0.0125) 0.0060 (0.0112) 0.0331*** (0.0116) 0.0140 (0.0149) -0.0159 (0.0153) -0.0132 (0.0111) 0.0153 (0.0107) 0.0219 (0.0321) 0.0246 (0.0370) -0.0385 (0.0340) 68,047 (0.0004) -0.0085 (0.0072) 0.0006*** (0.0002) 0.0038*** (0.0008) 0.0046 (0.0075) -0.0028 (0.0022) -0.0048 (0.0041) 0.0009 (0.0029) -0.0009 (0.0051) 0.0005 (0.0046) 0.0006 (0.0003) -0.0105 (0.0110) -0.0069 (0.0099) 0.0582*** (0.0100) 0.0030 (0.0126) -0.0063 (0.0137) 0.0128 (0.0100) -0.0339*** (0.0096) 0.0528** (0.0251) 0.0739** (0.0306) 0.0175 (0.0270) 68,047 (0.0003) -0.0175*** (0.0060) 0.0001 (0.0002) 0.0010 (0.0006) -0.0088 (0.0060) 0.0020 (0.0016) -0.0080** (0.0033) -0.0035 (0.0023) -0.0062 (0.0041) -0.0052 (0.0033) 0.0003 (0.0003) -0.0316*** (0.0088) -0.0095 (0.0081) 0.0437*** (0.0084) 0.0113 (0.0105) -0.0110 (0.0114) -0.0032 (0.0085) -0.0147* (0.0077) 0.0382 (0.0233) 0.0360 (0.0269) -0.0223 (0.0250) 68,047 157 Table 35: Impact of credit for agriculture (from only formal source) Probit regression (Marginal effects) Variables HYV adoption 0.0271*** (0.0089) 0.0007*** (0.0001) 0.0153*** (0.0028) 0.0034*** (0.0008) 0.0928*** (0.0106) 0.1301*** (0.0163) 0.0049 (0.0096) 0.0127 (0.0188) 0.0281 (0.0270) 0.0099 (0.0110) 0.0324 (0.0199) 0.0606*** (0.0111) 0.0364** (0.0168) -0.0185 (0.0121) -0.0811*** (0.0127) 0.0245** (0.0120) 0.0690*** (0.0119) 0.0226 (0.0148) treated irrigated_farm n_farm cult_area market_produce social_program power_tiller tractor rice_miller water_pump harvester ext_govt ext_CBO ext_NGO info_radio info_tv info_peer farmer_org num_largelivestock 0.0003 (0.0008) num_smalllivestock -0.0003 (0.0006) female -0.0092 Fertilizer Pest adoption Package adoption 0.0099 (0.0070) 0.0007*** (0.0001) 0.0160*** (0.0027) 0.0004 (0.0006) 0.0371*** (0.0077) 0.0185 (0.0138) 0.0372*** (0.0084) -0.0400*** (0.0146) -0.0547*** (0.0205) 0.0303*** (0.0086) 0.0126 (0.0188) 0.0424*** (0.0086) 0.0129 (0.0139) 0.0153 (0.0100) -0.0115 (0.0092) 0.0267*** (0.0091) 0.0116 (0.0098) 0.0094 (0.0111) -0.0024*** (0.0006) 0.0009* (0.0005) -0.0084 0.0651*** (0.0088) 0.0019*** (0.0001) 0.0096*** (0.0026) 0.0034*** (0.0008) 0.0214** (0.0097) 0.0663*** (0.0145) 0.0204** (0.0094) 0.0178 (0.0174) -0.1035*** (0.0234) 0.1053*** (0.0098) 0.0313 (0.0201) 0.0214** (0.0107) 0.1294*** (0.0163) 0.0091 (0.0115) -0.0137 (0.0144) 0.0609*** (0.0132) 0.0862*** (0.0115) -0.0358*** (0.0135) 0.0001 (0.0008) 0.0011** (0.0005) -0.0118 0.0240*** (0.0063) 0.0010*** (0.0001) 0.0098*** (0.0018) 0.0026*** (0.0004) 0.0395*** (0.0078) 0.0598*** (0.0102) 0.0055 (0.0069) 0.0319*** (0.0122) -0.0209 (0.0164) 0.0421*** (0.0070) 0.0153 (0.0132) 0.0233*** (0.0079) 0.0510*** (0.0126) -0.0127 (0.0085) -0.0438*** (0.0097) 0.0247*** (0.0088) 0.0471*** (0.0079) 0.0173* (0.0095) -0.0003 (0.0006) 0.0000 (0.0004) -0.0302*** 158 Table 35 (cont’d) age educ married hhsize dep_ratio n_agriactivity n_otherindustry n_service distance_road labor_move vil_NGO disaster healthcenter vil_midschool vil_primschool soil_finesandy plain Tonlesap Mountain_plateau Observations Source: Calculation based on CAC 2013. Notes: (1) Clustered robust standard errors in parentheses. (2) *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1 (0.0092) 0.0001 (0.0002) 0.0043*** (0.0010) -0.0033 (0.0099) -0.0085*** (0.0027) -0.0020 (0.0055) 0.0087** (0.0035) 0.0073 (0.0059) 0.0084 (0.0053) 0.0014*** (0.0004) -0.0108 (0.0133) -0.0017 (0.0108) 0.0489*** (0.0119) -0.0035 (0.0144) -0.0073 (0.0156) 0.0275** (0.0117) -0.0322*** (0.0111) 0.0578* (0.0330) 0.0730* (0.0403) 0.0092 (0.0352) 56,047 (0.0078) 0.0001 (0.0002) 0.0012 (0.0008) -0.0010 (0.0085) -0.0070*** (0.0021) 0.0026 (0.0045) 0.0051* (0.0027) 0.0197*** (0.0050) 0.0046 (0.0046) -0.0001 (0.0003) -0.0150 (0.0107) -0.0059 (0.0090) 0.0028 (0.0096) 0.0029 (0.0122) -0.0013 (0.0129) 0.0111 (0.0089) -0.0141 (0.0088) 0.0192 (0.0193) 0.0205 (0.0270) -0.0442** (0.0203) 56,047 (0.0067) 0.0001 (0.0002) 0.0011 (0.0007) -0.0199*** (0.0076) -0.0017 (0.0020) -0.0047 (0.0041) 0.0039 (0.0025) -0.0020 (0.0043) 0.0009 (0.0035) 0.0001 (0.0003) -0.0350*** (0.0108) 0.0025 (0.0082) 0.0443*** (0.0094) 0.0029 (0.0113) -0.0151 (0.0118) 0.0090 (0.0090) -0.0166** (0.0081) 0.0107 (0.0257) -0.0193 (0.0295) -0.0419 (0.0284) 56,047 (0.0098) 0.0008*** (0.0003) 0.0027** (0.0011) -0.0105 (0.0105) 0.0060** (0.0027) -0.0155*** (0.0055) -0.0065* (0.0036) -0.0280*** (0.0066) -0.0259*** (0.0055) -0.0002 (0.0004) -0.0205 (0.0142) 0.0177 (0.0122) 0.0220* (0.0131) 0.0071 (0.0165) -0.0181 (0.0168) -0.0032 (0.0122) 0.0195* (0.0117) -0.0294 (0.0328) -0.0421 (0.0391) -0.0665* (0.0351) 56,047 159 Table 36: Impact of credit for agriculture (from only informal source) Probit regression (Marginal effects) Variables HYV adoption -0.0138 (0.0104) 0.0006*** (0.0001) 0.0101*** (0.0033) 0.0039*** (0.0008) 0.0260** (0.0111) 0.1206*** (0.0166) 0.0032 (0.0103) 0.0289 (0.0234) 0.0035 (0.0182) 0.0532*** (0.0147) 0.0070 (0.0196) 0.0828*** (0.0123) 0.0124 (0.0164) 0.0047 (0.0144) -0.0421*** (0.0144) 0.0533*** (0.0140) 0.0291** (0.0122) 0.0469*** (0.0163) treated irrigated_farm n_farm cult_area market_produce social_program power_tiller tractor rice_miller water_pump harvester ext_govt ext_CBO ext_NGO info_radio info_tv info_peer farmer_org num_largelivestock 0.0011 num_smalllivestock 0.0011 female (0.0012) -0.0042 (0.0009) 0.0524*** (0.0094) 0.0020*** (0.0001) 0.0074** (0.0029) 0.0034*** (0.0008) 0.0432*** (0.0105) 0.0732*** (0.0152) 0.0167* (0.0099) Fertilizer Pest adoption Package adoption 0.0171** (0.0077) 0.0005*** (0.0001) 0.0213*** (0.0034) -0.0004 (0.0006) 0.0323*** (0.0076) 0.0446*** (0.0135) 0.0338*** (0.0080) -0.0471*** 0.0019 (0.0155) -0.0292** (0.0132) 0.0238* (0.0139) 0.0245 (0.0185) 0.0630*** (0.0092) -0.0135 (0.0146) 0.0117 (0.0110) -0.0150* (0.0091) 0.0069 (0.0093) 0.0423*** (0.0091) 0.0168 (0.0134) -0.0018*** 0.0009 (0.0007) -0.0005 (0.0007) -0.0082 0.0145** (0.0071) 0.0010*** (0.0001) 0.0090*** (0.0021) 0.0027*** (0.0005) 0.0110 (0.0080) 0.0887*** (0.0107) 0.0191*** (0.0073) 0.0235 (0.0157) -0.0254* (0.0138) 0.0477*** (0.0087) 0.0027 (0.0127) 0.0503*** (0.0083) 0.0233** (0.0108) -0.0035 (0.0092) -0.0257** (0.0109) 0.0374*** (0.0097) 0.0252*** (0.0080) 0.0041 (0.0108) -0.0002 (0.0006) -0.0009 (0.0006) -0.0178** (0.0200) -0.0626*** (0.0210) 0.0848*** (0.0121) 0.0330 (0.0202) 0.0418*** (0.0112) 0.0583*** (0.0155) -0.0201 (0.0133) 0.0242* (0.0133) 0.0761*** (0.0125) 0.0935*** (0.0110) -0.0213 (0.0170) (0.0008) 0.0004 (0.0010) 0.0008 160 Table 36 (cont’d) age educ married hhsize dep_ratio n_agriactivity n_otherindustry n_service distance_road labor_move vil_NGO disaster healthcenter vil_midschool vil_primschool soil_finesandy plain Tonlesap Mountain_plateau Observations Source: Calculation based on CAC 2013. Notes: (1) Clustered robust standard errors in parentheses. (2) *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1 (0.0106) 0.0006* (0.0003) 0.0012 (0.0011) 0.0143 (0.0111) -0.0005 (0.0029) -0.0110* (0.0063) -0.0008 (0.0039) -0.0160** (0.0079) -0.0090 (0.0073) -0.0000 (0.0004) 0.0121 (0.0133) -0.0103 (0.0125) 0.0559*** (0.0128) 0.0120 (0.0150) -0.0183 (0.0162) -0.0022 (0.0121) -0.0475*** (0.0116) 0.0680** (0.0298) 0.0863** (0.0350) 0.0003 (0.0322) 51,431 (0.0083) 0.0005** (0.0002) 0.0002 (0.0009) 0.0068 (0.0095) -0.0005 (0.0024) -0.0018 (0.0047) -0.0020 (0.0030) 0.0301*** (0.0067) -0.0131*** (0.0048) -0.0014*** (0.0003) -0.0251** (0.0101) 0.0027 (0.0092) -0.0049 (0.0094) 0.0043 (0.0121) 0.0012 (0.0119) 0.0020 (0.0094) -0.0174* (0.0097) -0.0643*** (0.0203) -0.0352 (0.0256) -0.0908*** (0.0209) 51,431 (0.0079) -0.0002 (0.0002) 0.0004 (0.0007) -0.0044 (0.0087) 0.0062*** (0.0021) -0.0166*** (0.0048) -0.0080*** (0.0028) -0.0145*** (0.0055) -0.0146*** (0.0043) 0.0005* (0.0003) -0.0323*** (0.0089) -0.0175* (0.0097) 0.0426*** (0.0104) 0.0199 (0.0121) -0.0198 (0.0125) -0.0045 (0.0092) -0.0283*** (0.0087) 0.0744*** (0.0227) 0.0677** (0.0269) 0.0071 (0.0243) 51,431 (0.0116) -0.0000 (0.0003) 0.0008 (0.0012) 0.0064 (0.0128) 0.0094*** (0.0031) -0.0213*** (0.0067) -0.0127*** (0.0041) -0.0388*** (0.0090) -0.0217*** (0.0070) 0.0008* (0.0004) -0.0242* (0.0144) -0.0187 (0.0136) 0.0489*** (0.0143) 0.0246 (0.0181) -0.0203 (0.0178) -0.0099 (0.0133) 0.0045 (0.0133) 0.0674* (0.0382) 0.0672 (0.0450) 0.0080 (0.0403) 51,431 161 Table 37: Impact of credit for agriculture (from both sources) Probit regression (marginal effects) (0.0126) (0.0151) (0.0120) 0.0815*** (0.0241) -0.0708*** (0.0208) (0.0131) 0.0326 (0.0332) Variables treated irrigated_farm n_farm cult_area market_produce social_program power_tiller tractor rice_miller water_pump harvester ext_govt ext_CBO ext_NGO info_radio info_tv info_peer farmer_org num_largelivestock num_smalllivestock 0.0011 female HYV adoption Fertilizer Pest adoption Package adoption 0.0235* (0.0130) 0.0005*** (0.0002) 0.0091* (0.0051) 0.0029*** (0.0009) 0.0083 (0.0136) 0.0922*** (0.0185) 0.0112 (0.0121) 0.0112 (0.0286) 0.0195 (0.0321) 0.0104 (0.0159) 0.0644** (0.0315) 0.0730*** (0.0131) 0.0162 (0.0177) 0.0409** (0.0186) -0.0889*** (0.0157) 0.0680*** (0.0144) -0.0194 (0.0160) 0.0847*** (0.0181) -0.0003 (0.0010) 0.0483*** 0.1078*** (0.0085) 0.0005*** 0.0018*** (0.0001) (0.0001) 0.0106*** 0.0062* (0.0037) (0.0029) 0.0018** 0.0001 (0.0005) (0.0009) 0.0389*** 0.0151 (0.0087) 0.0524*** 0.1741*** (0.0176) 0.0220*** 0.0162 (0.0085) 0.0029 (0.0211) -0.0342** (0.0143) 0.0385*** 0.0966*** (0.0127) -0.0271 (0.0243) 0.0407*** 0.0480*** (0.0128) (0.0103) 0.1091*** 0.0015 (0.0168) (0.0129) -0.0335** 0.0081 (0.0122) (0.0163) -0.0223** 0.0326** (0.0106) (0.0153) 0.0251*** 0.0352*** (0.0096) 0.0152 (0.0110) -0.0072 (0.0120) 0.0003 (0.0004) 0.0005 (0.0006) 0.0190** 0.0571*** (0.0104) 0.0006*** (0.0001) 0.0021 (0.0034) 0.0027*** (0.0007) 0.0009 (0.0111) 0.0944*** (0.0134) 0.0279*** (0.0090) 0.0507*** (0.0196) -0.0161 (0.0262) 0.0362*** (0.0113) 0.0502** (0.0211) 0.0538*** (0.0101) 0.0413*** (0.0127) -0.0017 (0.0120) -0.0413*** (0.0138) 0.0504*** (0.0119) -0.0129 (0.0114) 0.0235* (0.0135) -0.0014* (0.0007) -0.0004 (0.0007) -0.0070 (0.0133) 0.1012*** (0.0129) -0.0633*** (0.0168) -0.0010 (0.0012) 0.0001 (0.0010) -0.0303** (0.0121) (0.0008) 0.0379*** 162 Table 37 (cont’d) age educ married hhsize dep_ratio n_agriactivity n_otherindustry n_service distance_road labor_move vil_NGO disaster healthcenter vil_midschool vil_primschool soil_finesandy plain Tonlesap Mountain_plateau Observations Source: Calculation based on CAC 2013. Notes: (1) Clustered robust standard errors in parentheses. (2) *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1 (0.0146) 0.0008** (0.0004) 0.0014 (0.0015) 0.0317** (0.0144) 0.0133*** (0.0041) -0.0280*** (0.0087) -0.0229*** (0.0053) -0.0207* (0.0122) -0.0416*** (0.0082) 0.0007 (0.0005) -0.0130 (0.0193) 0.0138 (0.0174) 0.0451*** (0.0158) 0.0354 (0.0224) -0.0052 (0.0229) -0.0314* (0.0188) 0.0117 (0.0159) 0.1693*** (0.0480) 0.1882*** (0.0527) 0.0812 (0.0495) 51,741 (0.0089) 0.0006** (0.0003) 0.0040*** (0.0011) 0.0123 (0.0105) -0.0045* (0.0026) -0.0048 (0.0046) 0.0030 (0.0032) 0.0089 (0.0094) 0.0017 (0.0055) -0.0007** (0.0003) -0.0248*** (0.0096) -0.0071 (0.0096) 0.0021 (0.0111) 0.0076 (0.0116) -0.0201 (0.0126) -0.0194** (0.0097) -0.0015 (0.0091) 0.0008 (0.0229) 0.0118 (0.0282) -0.0396* (0.0236) 51,741 (0.0154) 0.0012*** (0.0004) 0.0033** (0.0015) 0.0026 (0.0144) -0.0036 (0.0044) -0.0037 (0.0083) 0.0020 (0.0056) 0.0142 (0.0122) -0.0011 (0.0086) 0.0002 (0.0005) -0.0230 (0.0171) -0.0036 (0.0173) 0.0581*** (0.0142) -0.0253 (0.0240) 0.0097 (0.0223) -0.0035 (0.0176) -0.0115 (0.0162) -0.0141 (0.0319) 0.0097 (0.0386) -0.0157 (0.0339) 51,741 (0.0136) 0.0002 (0.0003) 0.0009 (0.0012) -0.0033 (0.0116) 0.0007 (0.0037) -0.0028 (0.0075) -0.0009 (0.0042) 0.0121 (0.0096) -0.0081 (0.0066) 0.0008** (0.0004) -0.0221 (0.0144) -0.0061 (0.0155) 0.0411*** (0.0126) -0.0023 (0.0193) 0.0086 (0.0213) -0.0154 (0.0171) -0.0051 (0.0133) 0.1173*** (0.0419) 0.1621*** (0.0450) 0.0465 (0.0433) 51,741 163 REFERENCES 164 REFERENCES Abebaw, D., & Haile, M. 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