a‘ ‘3 g.) LIBRARY Michigan State Universiiy -.—~— 'v—.—._-.~—_‘ This is to certify that the dissertation entitled ESSAYS ON CORPORATE FINANCE presented by NOOLEE KIM has been accepted towards fulfillment of the requirements for the Ph.D. * degree in Finance Major Professdv’s Signature {71? /2. 09 7? Date MSU is an Afiirmative Action/Equal Opportunity Employer ou----—---------c--o--o-----o--n--u-u-.-n-o---o--I-----o--n-0-a----l—-.—n—n--u-o-o--u-o-u---o--- I PLACE IN RETURN BOX to remove this checkout from your record. TO AVOID FINES return on or before date due. MAY BE RECALLED with earlier due date if requested. DATE DUE DATE DUE DATE DUE 5/08 K:IProj/Acc&Pres/CIRCIDateDue.indd ESSAYS ON CORPORATE FINANCE By Noolee Kim A DISSERTATION Submitted to Michigan State University In partial fulfillment of the requirements For the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY Finance 2009 ABSTRACT ESSAYS ON CORPORTAE FINANCE By Noolee Kim This dissertation explores the effects of bank credit agreements on the value of the borrowing firm and its various claimholders’ wealth. Using bond return data to distinguish among alternative explanations regarding the valuation effect of bank loan announcements, we Show that bondholders earn significantly positive abnormal returns surrounding announcements of bank credit agreements. Such returns are considerably higher for firms that are riskier and firms that perform worse, particularly for firms that perform worse but have higher growth opportunities. The results are remarkably similar when we use stock returns to measure abnormal returns. We also find no evidence of a wealth transfer from bondholders to shareholders; in fact, we find that bond announcement returns are significantly positively related to stock announcement returns. These results suggest that the positive stock market reaction to bank loan announcements documented in prior studies does not reflect anticipated wealth transfers from creditors to shareholders or anticipated tax benefits to shareholders arising from higher leverage, but instead reflects the anticipated value increase resulting from monitoring services that bank loans provide to the client firms. To my parents and sister iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to express my deepest gratitude to my dissertation chair, Professor Jun-Koo Kang for his constant guidance and unwavering support. My dissertation would not have been possible without his serious commitment as an advisor. Furthermore, I am deeply indebted to him, who as a teacher, has provided invaluable knowledge, experience, and wisdom which have played a defining role in my dissertation and career goals. I wish to thank the other members of my dissertation committee, Professor Charles J. Hadlock, Professor Ted Fee, and Professor Stephen Dimmock for their helpful cements and discussions throughout my dissertation works. I am especially grateful to Professor Charles J. Hadlock for all the encouragement and support he has provided ‘me as the director of the doctoral program. I am greatly indebted to Professor Long Chen for his valuable help, guidance and» suggestions on my dissertation. I would like to express my appreciation to the Department Chair, Professor G. Geoffrey Booth, for providing me with the opportunity to study in the doctoral program and for his support throughout my time at Michigan State University. Also, I would like to thank Professor Elizabeth Booth for her thoughtful care and help throughout my doctoral studies. I also thank the other professors of the finance department for their teaching and advice in the process of my development as a scholar. iv I thank all the graduate students who I have studied with at Michigan State University: Ranadeb Chaudhuri, Hoontaek Seo, William Gerken, Neslihan Yilmaz, Kyoung-Min Kwon, Min Jung Kang, and other fellow doctoral students for their friendship and support. Also, I thank all my friends for all their help and support. Finally, my deepest gratitude goes to my parents and sister back in Korea. I cannot thank them enough for their continuous support, patience and love. Without them, this would not have been possible. TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES ................................................................................................ vii LIST OF FIGURES ............................................................................................. viii 1 Introduction .................................................................................................. l 2 Sample Selection and Data .......................................................................... 9 3 Event Study Methodology ......................................................................... 12 4 Empirical Results ....................................................................................... 15 4.1 Univariate Results for Abnormal Stock, Bond, and Firm Returns ............................................................................ 15 4.2 Cross-Sectional Determinants of Bond and Stock CARS .............. 20 4.3 Relation between Abnormal Bond and Stock Returns .................. 26 5 Summary and Conclusion .......................................................................... 30 APPENDIX ............................................................................................................ 33 BIBLIOGRAPHY .................................................................................................. 60 vi LIST OF TABLES Table 1 Predictions of Monitoring, Wealth Transfer, and Leverage Hypotheses for Key Variables ....................................................... 34 Table 2 Distribution of Bank Loan Announcements by Year and Borrower Industry ................................................................... 35 Table 3 Summary Statistics of Borrowers, New Bank Loans, and Bonds Outstanding .................................................................. 36 Table 4 Mean and Median Cumulative Abnormal Returns (CAR) around the Announcement Date (AD) ........................................... 38 Table 5 Three-Day Cumulative Abnormal Returns (CARS) for Borrowing Firms Categorized by Firm and Loan Seniority Characteristics ................................................ 40 Table 6 Three-Day Cumulative Abnormal Returns (CARS) for Borrowing Firms by Borrower Performance and Grth Opportunities .............................................................. 43 Table 7 OLS Regression of the Three-Day Cumulative Abnormal Bond Returns on Explanatory Variables ........................................ 46 Table 8 OLS Regression of the Three-Day Cumulative Abnormal Stock Returns on Explanatory Variables ....................................... 49 Table 9 OLS Regression of the Three-Day Cumulative Abnormal Bond and Stock Returns on Wealth Transfer Variables ................ 52 Table 10 OLS Regression of the Three-Day Cumulative Abnormal Bond Returns on Three-Day Cumulative Abnormal Stock Returns ................................................................ 55 vii LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1 Cumulative abnormal returns from day -10 to day +10 around the loan announcement ...................................................... 58 viii 1. Introduction It is well documented that, unlike the case for shareholders of firms that use other types of financing, shareholders of borrowing firms earn significantly positive excess stock returns surrounding the announcements of bank credit agreements (Mikkelson and Partch (1986), James (1987), Lummer and McConnell (1989), Best and Zhang (1993), Preece and Mullineaux (1994), Billet, Flannery, and Garfinkel (1995)).1 For example, James (1987) shows an average abnormal return of 1.93% over the two-day period around the bank loan announcement date. The positive announcement effect is stronger for favorable loan renewals and revisions (Lummer and McConnell (1989)) and for loans from less risky banks (Billet, Flannery, and Garfmkel (1995)). Prior literature interprets these results as evidence that banks play a special role as information transmitters in the capital markets and perform an important value-enhancing intermediary function for their client firms (hereafter, the “monitoring hypothesis”). This interpretation is controversial, however, because the positive excess stock returns associated with announcements of bank credit agreements are subject to other alternative explanations. For example, Peek and Rosengren (2005) argue that to avoid classifying existing loans to troubled client firms with poor prospects as nonperforming, banks in Japan have strong incentives to extend credit to financially distressed firms. Supporting this argument, Kang and Liu (2007) show that the announcement returns for Japanese borrowing firms are significantly positive and those for lending banks are sometimes significantly negative. Furthermore, the announcement returns for borrowing firms are 1 The existing literature shows that announcements of new equity and convertible bonds issues are associated with a decrease in the announcing firm’s stock price. See Smith (1986) and Masulis (1988) for a review of the evidence on the announcement effect associated with new security issues. negatively related to those for lending banks, especially when poorly performing firms borrow fi'om financially healthy banks. It is also possible that, by arranging bank loans that frequently are more senior to or have shorter maturity than current outstanding bonds, managers of borrowing firms can reorder the priority of debt claims and have opporttmities to expropriate current bondholders through certain corporate activities such as risky investments and share repurchases. In these circumstances, bank loan announcements can lead to wealth transfer from either lending banks or bondholders to shareholders, resulting in positive announcement stock returns for the borrowing firms (hereafier, the “wealth transfer hypothesis”). Alternatively, new bank loans increase the borrower’s leverage ratio. To the extent that higher debt in a firm’s capital structure generates larger tax savings (Modigliani and Miller (1963)), positive excess stock returns surrounding bank loan announcements documented in prior studies are also consistent with the view that the higher leverage resulting fiom new bank loan financing is beneficial to shareholders (hereafier, the “leverage hypothesis”). In this paper we use daily bond return data to distinguish among these alternative explanations for the well-documented positive abnormal stock returns surrounding bank loan announcements. Using a sample of 254 new bank loan announcements during the period 1995-2003, we provide one of the first analyses that simultaneously documents the responses of borrowers’ stock and bond prices to announcements of bank credit agreements. Previous studies on bank loan announcement effects have exclusively used stock prices. Although stock prices are useful in examining the effect of bank loan announcements on shareholder wealth, they have only limited ability to distinguish among the alterative hypotheses discussed above. In particular, these alterative hypotheses suggest that we cannot say much about the nature of the association between bank loan announcements and stock returns unless we examine the market responses to bank loan announcements from other classes of securities such as corporate bonds. For example, the positive excess stock returns surrounding announcements of bank credit agreements documented in prior studies may not reflect a value increase due to bank monitoring, but rather a wealth transfer from creditors to shareholders, or the tax benefits that shareholders enjoy from increased tax shields. Bond return data allow us to assess the relative importance and merit of these alternative explanations that stock return data alone cannot. Specifically, we compare both the magnitudes and the signs of abnormal stock and bond returns and examine their correlations. We also investigate whether abnormal stock and bond returns differ depending on firm characteristics (e.g. risk, past performance, and growth opportunity) and new bank loans’ relative seniority (e.g., security and maturity) and size compared to current corporate bonds outstanding. According to the monitoring hypothesis, banks’ loan commitments certify the quality of borrowing firms and signal that the lending banks are willing to provide various monitoring services. These monitoring services alleviate borrowing firms’ managerial incentive problems, reduce information asymmetry problems between managers and outside investors, and ease their potential financial constraints (Campbell and Kracaw (1980), Diamond (1984), and Fama (1985)). Since both shareholders and debtholders benefit from these valuable services, the monitoring hypothesis suggests that bank loan announcements have a positive effect not only on the value of stocks but also on the value of bonds, and that bond announcement returns are positively related to stock announcement returns. To the extent that firms that are riskier, firms that perform worse, and firms that have higher growth opportunities generally suffer more from information asymmetries, these firms are expected to realize stronger positive excess stock and bond returns surrounding the announcements of bank credit agreements. However, the monitoring hypothesis does not provide any direct implications for the effect of relative seniority and size between new bank loans and outstanding bonds on stock and bond prices. The value-enhancing monitoring services provided by the banks should create efficiency gains for both shareholders and bondholders, irrespective of the nature of claims represented by new bank loans and outstanding bonds. In contrast to the monitoring hypothesis, the wealth transfer hypothesis posits that, assuming there is no wealth transfer from the lending banks to the stockholders (as shown below), the positive announcement effects for stockholders represent a wealth transfer fiom the bondholders in the same firm, suggesting positive (negative) excess stock (bond) returns surrounding the announcements of bank credit agreements and a negative relation between stock and bond announcement returns. In particular, the wealth transfer hypothesis suggests that if new bank loans have relatively higher seniority (due to higher security or shorter maturity) and larger size than bonds already issued, a wealth transfer from bondholders to shareholders is more likely to occur. Thus, stock (bond) prices are expected to respond more positively (negatively) in these cases. However, the wealth transfer hypothesis'does not have any clear implications for the effect of a firm’s risk, past performance, and growth opportunities on stock and bond prices. Finally, assuming that borrowing firms have low risk and low leverage, the leverage hypothesis predicts that the increase in leverage resulting from new bank loan financing creates large tax shields and thus is beneficial to stockholders. In contrast, the impact of such an increase in leverage on bondholder wealth is expected to be either negligible if the firm is healthy or negative if the high leverage increases the probability of a possible future bankruptcy and thus imposes significant financial distress risk on bonds outstanding. Thus, the leverage hypothesis suggests positive (non-positive) excess stock (bond) returns surrounding announcements of bank credit agreements and a non-positive relation between excess stock and bond returns. To the extent that risky firms, poorly performing firms, and firms with high growth opportunities have a high probability of facing financial distress, the leverage hypothesis further suggests that for these firms, the shareholders’ benefits (bondholders’ losses) from using more debt are likely to be smaller (larger), predicting less positive (more negative) equity (bond) announcement returns around bank loan announcements. The effect of higher leverage that results from new bank loan financing on bondholder wealth also depends on bank loans’ relative seniority and size. To the extent that the adverse effect of leverage on bondholder wealth is greater when new bank loans have relatively higher security, shorter maturity, or larger size than extent bond issues, the leverage hypothesis predicts that bond announcement returns are lower in these cases. However, the leverage hypothesis does not provide any direct implications for the effect of bank loans’ relative seniority and Size on excess stock returns. Table 1 summarizes the predictions of the monitoring, wealth transfer, and leverage hypotheses and presents our empirical results. We find that the positive stock market reaction to bank loan announcements documented in prior studies does not reflect either anticipated wealth transfers from creditors to shareholders or an increase in tax benefits arising from high leverage, but instead reflects an anticipated value increase resulting from monitoring services that bank loans provide to the client firms. Indeed, we find that both bondholders and shareholders of borrowing firms earn significantly positive abnormal returns surrounding announcements of bank credit agreements: the average three-day cumulative abnormal return (CAR) for stocks is 1.48% with a p—value of 0.02, the average three-day CAR for bonds is 1.01% with a p-value of 0.04, and the average three-day CAR for the entire firm is 1.15% with a p-value of 0.02. These results are consistent with the monitoring hypothesis and suggest that the market views a bank loan announcement as a value- enhancing event for the whole firm. We also find that the positive announcement returns for stocks and bonds are considerably higher for firms that are riskier (i.e., higher equity beta, higher stock return volatility, and higher leverage), firms that perform worse (i.e., lower operating performance and lower stock return performance), and poorly performing firms that have higher growth opportunities (i.e., lower stock return performance, but higher Tobin’s q). To the extent that these firms face greater information asymmetry and benefit more from a bank’s monitoring services, the results suggest that new bank loans provide value- enhancing monitoring services to both shareholders and bondholders, rather than to shareholders only. These results are also consistent with the monitoring hypothesis. Turning to the effect of new bank loans’ relative seniority and size on bond prices, in contrast to the predictions of the wealth transfer and leverage hypotheses, we find that the abnormal bond returns for the cases in which 1) loans are secured but bonds carry lower security, 2) loans have longer maturity than bonds, and 3) loan size is larger than bond size, are not Significantly different from those for other types of bank credit agreements. Furthermore, equity announcement returns are higher when bonds carry higher security and lower when loans are secured but bonds carry lower security. In untabulated tests, we also find that the stock prices of lending banks do not respond negatively to new loan announcements and that stock (bond) announcement returns for borrowing firms are not significantly related to those for lending banks. Taken together, these results suggest that the leverage effect or the wealth transfer from either the lending banks or the bondholders to the shareholders is unlikely to be the driving determinant of the observed valuation effects for stocks and bonds. Finally, we find that abnormal bond returns are significantly, positively related to abnormal equity returns. This positive relation is more pronounced if the borrower’s past operating (stock) performance is below the sample median, particularly if its Tobin’s q is above the sample median. These results further support the monitoring hypothesis. Overall, our analysis for the effects of bank loan announcements on bond and stock prices provides strong support to the monitoring hypothesis. We find no evidence suggesting wealth transfer from either the lending banks or bondholders to shareholders. We also find no evidence supporting the leverage hypothesis. Our paper is closely related to the recent study by Ongena, Roscovan, and Werker (2007), who also examine responses from both corporate bonds and stocks to new bank loan announcements. However, unlike our study that examines bond returns, Ongena, Roscovan, and Werker (2007) focus on bond yield changes. Yield changes do not directly consider maturities (durations) and thus the results using yield changes could be quite different from those using bond returns. Furthermore, while Ongena, Roscovan, and Werker (2007) focus more on the expected default loss on bonds, to distinguish among alternative explanations of positive excess stock returns surrounding bank loan announcements documented in prior studies, we utilize extensive information about borrowing frrms’ risk, past performance, and growth opportunities, and about new bank loans’ relative seniority and size compared to outstanding bonds. Combined, both studies provide important new evidence, from different angles, on the bond market reaction to bank loan announcements. Our paper is also related to several studies that examine the announcement effect of certain corporate events on bondholder wealth. For example, Maxwell and Stephens (2003) examine abnormal bond returns around repurchase announcements during the period 1980-1997 and find that bondholders experience negative abnormal returns. Maxwell and Rao (2003) investigate the bond price responses to spin-off announcements during the period 1974-1997. They find that bondholders suffer a significant negative abnormal return during the month of the spin-off announcement. Finally, Billett, King, and Mauer (2004) analyze the wealth effects of mergers and acquisitions on target and acquiring firm bondholders, using a sample of 940 deals during the period 1979-1997. They find significantly positive excess returns to target bonds and significantly negative excess returns to acquirer bonds. Our paper adds to the literature by showing that bondholders earn significantly positive abnormal returns surrounding announcements of bank credit agreements.2 This paper proceeds as follows. In Section 2, we discuss the data and sample characteristics. Section 3 describes the methodology used to estimate stock and bond abnormal returns surrounding bank loan announcements. In Section 4, we present the results from our empirical analysis. Section 5 summarizes and concludes the paper. 2. Sample Selection and Data We compile our sample by searching Factiva for loan announcements over the period 1995 to 2003. Our initial sample consists of firms that have daily bond price data in DATASTREAM, which publishes daily stock and bond prices that are widely used by academics and practitioners. We start the sample period in 1995 because daily bond prices become more regularly available only after 1995. We exclude fiom our initial sample firms that do not have daily stock return data in CRSP, those that do not have financial data in COMPUSTAT, and those that do not have bond characteristic data, such as rating and bond security, in the Fixed Income Security Database (F ISD). To obtain our sample of loan announcements, we search F activa by using the 99 ‘6 9’ 6‘ following key words: “line of credit , credit line”, “credit facility , credit agreement”, 99 ‘6 99 66 “credit extension , new loan , loan agreement”, “loan renewal”, “loan revision”, “loan 99 ‘6 extension”, “finance company loan”, “term loan , commercial loan”, and “bank loan”. 2 Unlike these studies that use monthly bond prices in Lehman Brothers Bond Database (LBBD) to estimate abnormal bond returns, our paper uses daily bond prices in DAT ASTREAM. The LBBD contains only monthly data and does not provide daily bond prices. One advantage of using daily bond returns in estimating announcement effects is that it allows us to more accurately measure the responses of bond prices to announcements of corporate events. The LBBD is available only up to 1998. For each announcement, we also collect information on loan amount, maturity, and security. This procedure yields a sample of 369 loan announcements from 258 firms. Of these, we delete 44 observations in which bond prices do not move at all during the event window (days --170 to +10 relative to the bank loan announcement). We also delete 34 loans made to financial and utility companies. We further exclude 12 cases in which the firm releases other important information with the bank loan announcement. Finally, to avoid having results confounded by multiple events that cluster during a short time period, we eliminate 25 events that occur within 90 days after the first loan announcement events.3 Thus, our final sample consists of 254 announcements of bank credit agreements. Table 2 summarizes the frequency of bank loan announcements by year and industry. The years 2001 and 2002 are the most active bank credit agreement years, with 76 and 55 cases, respectively, during which time the US. stock market dropped significantly and firms had difficulty accessing external direct financing. A breakdown of the loan announcements by industry shows that most of the borrowing firms are classified as manufacturing (115 cases). F orty-nine borrowing firms are in the transportation and communication industries and 45 in services and others. Panel A of Table 3 presents summary statistics for our sample borrowers. The average borrowing firm’s book value of assets (market value of equity) equals $10.95 billion ($10.1 billion), with mean sales of $8.27 billion. Leverage, measured as the book value of total debt divided by the sum of the book value of total debt and the market value of 10 equity, averages 43.2%, and the mean ratio of operating income before depreciation to total assets is 11.4%. The average Tobin’s q (sum of the book value of debt and the market value of equity / total assets) and the average previous six-month excess return are 1.22 and 3%, respectively. Equity beta averages 0.93 and the mean standard deviation of borrower past excess stock returns is 0.59. Panel B of Table 3 provides summary statistics for deal-specific characteristics of the announced loans. The average loan size is $1.2 billion, which accounts for 11% of the borrowing firms’ average total assets. About 62% of the announced loans are secured and the maturity of announced loans averages 3.51 years.4 Panel C of Table 3 reports summary statistics for bonds outstanding prior to bank credit agreements. The borrowing firms’ bonds outstanding averages $1 billion. The mean bond security and rating are 4.65 and 4.88, respectively. 5 The average bond maturity of 8 years is more than two times longer than the average maturity of announced loans.6 3 Since we use the market-model approach to estimate abnormal returns for the events and a significant portion of the estimation periods (day —170 to day —21) overlaps for these 25 events, it is likely that t- statistics in the analyses of the abnormal returns are biased upwards if we include them in our sample. 4 F activa does not provide enough information on loan security for our sample firms. Therefore, we obtain detailed loan security information by thoroughly searching a fn'm’s 10K report and supplementing these data with information from Dealscan. Of the 254 sample loan announcements, we are able to obtain loan security information for 192 announcements. 5 The bond security score ranges from one to six, with a higher score indicating higher security. Specifically, the score takes the value of one if the bond security level is junior subordinate, two if it is junior or subordinate, three if it has no special security features, four it is senior subordinate, five if it is senior, and six if it is senior secured. The bond rating score ranges from one to eight, with a higher score indicating lower rating. Specifically, the score takes the value of one if the bond rating is AAA or Aaa, two if it is AA or Aa, three if it is single A, four if it is triple BBB or Baa, five if it is BB or Ba, six if it is B, seven if it is triple CCC or Caa, and eight if it is lower than the 7th category. 6 When a borrowing firm has multiple bonds outstanding, we estimate the bond security, rating, and maturity as the weighted average of the bonds’ securities, ratings, and maturities, respectively, where the weights are assigned according to the face values of the bonds. ll 3. Event Study Methodology We use standard event study methodology to assess the valuation effect of bank loan announcements on borrower stock prices. We implement the test procedure by computing daily abnormal stock returns (AR) as ARit = Rn -(ai + fliRmt)’ (1) where Kit and Rm, are the daily stock return of borrower i at time t and the daily market index return at time t, respectively. The CRSP value-weighted return is used as the market return. The coefficients “1' and ,3,- are ordinary least squares estimates of the intercept and slope, respectively, of the market model regression. To compute the abnormal returns, we estimate the borrower-specific parameters di and ,3; with an ordinary least squares regression, using 150 daily returns beginning with day t = -170 and ending with t = -21 relative to the announcement date. Similarly, the daily abnormal bond return (ABR) is calculated as ABR, = BR” — ((35,. + ,BA,1 x Chg _Spread, + 61.2 x Chg_Slope,), (2) where BR” is the daily bond return of borrower i at time t, Chg_Spreadt is the change in aggregate credit spread at time t, which is defined as the change in Baa- over Aaa-rated bond yields, and Chg_Slope, is the change in the slope of the yield curve at time t, which 12 is defined as the change in the difference between 10-year Treasury over l-year Treasury yields. This specification, following Fama and French (1993) and Chen, Lesmond, and Wei (2007), assumes that the expected corporate bond return is driven by an aggregate corporate bond factor and an interest rate factor. Both the credit spread and yield curve data are obtained from the Federal Reserve. We estimate this bond “market model” using 150 daily bond returns beginning with day t = -170 and ending with t = -21 relative to the announcement date. When a borrowing firm has multiple bonds outstanding, we first estimate the ABR for each bond, then calculate the weighted average ABR for all bonds outstanding, where the weights are assigned according to the face value of each bond.7 The daily abnormal stock and bond returns are accumulated to obtain the stock and bond cumulative abnormal returns (CARS), respectively, between any two dates T1 and T2as T2 StockCARl. (T1, T2) = 2 AR, t=Tl (3) 7 The problem of infi’equently traded bonds can cause error in measuring excess returns. For example, as noted by Scholes and Williams (1977) and Dirnson (1979), the return of infrequently traded bonds is not likely to move along the bond market factors synchronously and thus there might be lagged effect fi'om the previous period’s return. This can lead to underestimation of betas and overestimation of excess returns. To mitigate this problem, in untabulated tests, we also estimate an alternative bond market model: 5 A A ABR“ = BR" — d, + 2 13:1,,- x Chg_Spread,_j + ,6in x Chg_Slope,_J j=0 That is, we include five lags for each market factor to estimate excess bond returns. We repeat all analyses below using excess bond returns estimated from this alternative method and obtain results that are qualitatively similar to those reported in the paper. 13 T2 BondCAR, (T1, T2) = Z ABR, , I=Tl (4) and we compute the sample cross-sectional average cumulative abnormal stock and bond returns, that is, stock and bond ACAR, as N StockACAR(T1, T2) = %Z StockCAR, (T1, T2) i=1 (5) N BondACAR(T1, T2) = 'lez BondCAR, (T1, T2) . i=1 (6) We use the t-statistic to test the hypothesis that the stock (bond) ACARs over any given interval are equal to zero. We also perform two additional tests to provide detailed information on the distribution of the estimated CARS and to ensure the robustness of our results. First, in addition to the mean CARS, we estimate the median CARS and test the hypothesis that the stock (bond) CARS over any given interval are distributed symmetrically around zero. Second, in untabulated tests, we winsorize the CARs at the 99% and 1% cutoff points, and find that all of our main conclusions remain the same. 14 4. Empirical Results 4.1. Univariate Results for Abnormal Stock, Bond, and Firm Returns Panel A of Table 4 reports stock CARS for the borrowing firms. On average, shareholders of the borrowing firms earn statistically significant positive gains. The average AR (0), CAR (-1, 0), and CAR (-1, 1) are 1.47%, 1.28%, and 1.48%, respectively, all of which are significantly different from zero at the 5% level or lower. These results are generally consistent with those in previous studies, which document positive excess stock returns sm'rounding announcements of bank credit agreements (Mikkelson and Partch (1986), James (1987), Lummer and McConnell (1989), Best and Zhang (1993), Preece and Mullineaux (1994), Billet, Garfinkal, and Flannery (1995)). Panel B of Table 4 shows bond CARs. The mean CAR (-1, 1) is 1.01%, which is significant at the 5% level. Thus, announcements of bank loan financing create statistically significant wealth gains for both shareholders and bondholders of the borrowing firms. Figure 1 shows stock and bond CARs for the borrowing firms from day -10 to day +10 around the event date. Both stock and bond CARs for the borrowers increase significantly from day -1 to day +1. However, there are different patterns of CAR movements for stocks and bonds afier day +1. The stock CARs peak on day +1 , and then start falling so that the stock CAR is almost zero by the end of day +10. However, the bond CARs continue to rise even after day +1, leveling off at day +8 and starting to fall slightly below 1% by the end of day +10. Panel C of Table 4 presents the CARs for the entire firm. We measure the firm CAR as a value-weighted average of the stock CAR and the bond CAR, with the weights being 15 the market value of equity and the book value of debt measured at the fiscal year-end that immediately precedes an announcement date. The average AR (0), CAR (-1, 0), and CAR (-1, 1) are 0.94%, 0.91%, and 1.15%, respectively, all of which are statistically significant at the 5% level. Overall, these results do not support the wealth transfer hypothesis or leverage hypothesis, but are consistent with the monitoring hypothesis, which predicts that banks perform an important value-enhancing intermediary function for both shareholders and bondholders of the borrowing firms.8 To firrther distinguish among these three hypotheses, we partition the sample according to some key characteristics of borrowing firms and new bank loans, and compare bond and stock CARS (-1, 1) across these characteristics. The results are reported in Table 5. In Panels A through D, we separate borrowing firms according to their riskiness, as proxied by bond rating, equity beta, stock return volatility, and leverage, respectively. We find that the positive and significant average stock CAR (-1 , 1) is only evident in the subsamples of borrowers with non-investment grade rating, borrowers with higher beta, borrowers with higher stock return volatility, and borrowers with higher leverage. We also find that the average stock CARs (-1, l) for these subsamples are significantly higher than those for borrowers with investment grade bonds, borrowers with lower betas, borrowers with lower stock return volatility, and borrowers with lower leverage. The results are similar for bond CARs (-1, 1), although 8 In untabulated tests, we find that the stock prices of lending banks do not respond negatively to new loan announcements and that borrower stock (bond) announcement returns are not significantly related to lender announcement returns. These results suggest that the wealth transfer from lending banks to shareholders (bondholders) is unlikely to be the driving factor for the positive valuation effect of stocks (bonds). l6 we do not find significant differences in bond CARs (-l, 1) across higher and lower beta borrowers. To examine whether abnormal returns vary by past borrower performance, in Panels E and F we separate the sample according to past operating and stock return performance of the borrowers. We find that for both bond and stock CARs (-1, 1), a positive and significant mean CAR (-1, 1) is only evident in the subsamples of borrowers with lower past operating performance and of those with lower past stock return performance. Furthermore, the CARs (-1, 1) for these subsamples are significantly higher than those for borrowers with higher past operating performance and for those with higher past stock return performance, respectively. In Panel G, we divide the sample according to the growth opportunity of the borrower. The mean bond CAR for a subsample of firms with higher Tobin’s q is positive and significant, and is higher than that for a subsample of firms with lower Tobin’s q. Although the equality of the mean CARs for these two subsamples cannot be rejected at conventional levels, the median bond CAR (-1, 1) for a subsample of firms with higher Tobin’s q is significantly higher than that for a subsample of firms with lower Tobin’s q. On the other hand, the mean and median stock CARs for a subsample of firms with higher Tobin’s q are not significantly different from those for a subsample of firms with lower Tobin’s q, respectively. Overall, these results suggest that bondholders of the borrowing firms realize significant positive excess returns around bank loan announcements, particularly when their firms are risky, when their firms perform poorly, or when their firms have good future growth opportunities. Stockholders of the borrowing firms also realize higher 17 returns when their firms are risky or when their firms perform poorly, strongly supporting the monitoring hypothesis. Panels H through J show the effect of new bank loans’ security, maturity, and size, relative to those of bonds outstanding, on abnormal bond and stock returns. As discussed in the introduction, the wealth transfer hypothesis predicts that a relative advantage of new bank loans in these aspects facilitates the potential wealth transfer fiom bondholders to stockholders in the borrowing firm -—abnormal bond (stock) returns are expected to be lower (higher) if new bank loans carry higher security, shorter maturity, and larger size than current bonds outstanding. In addition, the leverage hypothesis predicts that a relative advantage of new bank loans in these respects will push the current bonds into a more inferior position, due to higher leverage and/or lower seniority, suggesting lower bond CARs. On the other hand, the monitoring hypothesis predicts no clear link between abnormal returns and these relative measures of seniority and size. We find that the average bond and stock CARs are small and insignificant for a subsample of borrowers whose new bank loans are secured but bonds outstanding have low security and for a subsample of borrowers whose new bank loans are larger in size than bonds outstanding. Furthermore, for a subsample of borrowers whose new bank loans carry shorter maturity than bonds outstanding, the average bond CAR is not significant, but the average stock CAR is positive and significant. These results do not support either the wealth transfer hypothesis or leverage hypothesis, but are rather consistent with the monitoring hypothesis. Next, given the importance of firm performance and growth opportunities in explaining bond and stock abnormal returns around bank loan announcements, we 18 examine whether the interaction of these two variables has any further incremental power to distinguish among the three alternative hypotheses above. Because the benefits of bank monitoring services are likely to be more valuable for firms that perform poorly but have good growth opportunities, the monitoring hypothesis predicts that excess bond and stock returns around bank loan announcements are more pronounced for these firms. In contrast, the leverage hypothesis suggests that these firms face higher expected bankruptcy costs and thus the benefits fiom additional debt financing should be smaller for them. Consequently, the leverage hypothesis predicts that equity (bond) announcement returns are less positive (more negative) for poorly performing firms with high growth opportunities than for other firms. The wealth transfer hypothesis, however, does not provide any direct implications for the interaction effect of firm performance and growth opportunities on abnormal bond and stock returns. In Table 6, we address this issue by dividing our sample events according to whether the borrower’s past performance and grth opportunities (Tobin’s q) are above or below their respective sample medians. Panels A and B report bond and stock CARs (-1, 1), respectively, using the ratio of operating income before depreciation to total assets as a measure of past performance. The main findings are that bond and stock CARs are highest when poorly performing firms with good future growth opportunities borrow funds from the banks. The mean bond and stock CARS for the subsample of firms with poor past performance and high growth opportunities are 4.78% and 3.74%, respectively, both of which are significant at the 10% level. The corresponding mean and median returns for other types of loans are small and insignificant except for the mean stock CAR 19 for a subsample of firms with poor past performance and low growth opportunities. These results support the monitoring hypothesis. Panels C and D of Table 6 provide bond and stock CARS (-l, 1), respectively, using past cumulative excess stock returns as a measure of past performance. We again find that the mean bond and stock CARs are highest for a subsample of firms with poor past stock performance and high growth opportunities, albeit the mean stock CAR is not significant. 4.2. Cross-Sectional Determinants of Bond and Stock CARs To better understand the cross-sectional variation in bond and stock CARs, we report the estimates from multivariate regressions. Because the univariate results above show that equity beta, stock return volatility, leverage, past performance, and Tobin’s q are important determinants of bond and stock CARS, we include these variables as key explanatory variables. We also include firm size (log of total assets) as a control variable. Table 7 reports the regression estimates using bond CARS (-1, 1) as the dependent variable. The first three regressions in Table 7 examine the relation between the bond CAR and risk variables. We find that the coefficients on equity beta and leverage in model (1) and the coefficient on stock return volatility in model (2) are positive and significant. However, when we include all three of these variables in model (3), only the coefficient on stock return volatility is positive and significant while the significance of the coefficients on other risk variables disappears.9 9 In untabulated tests, we include as an alternative measure of firm risk a dummy for bond ratings that takes the value of one if an issue has a non-investment grade and zero otherwise. We find that the coefficient on this dummy variable is positive, but not significant. 20 In models (4) through (6),“ we use past performance and growth opportunities as explanatory variables. We find that in model (4), the coefficient on the ratio of operating income before depreciation to total assets is negative and significant at the 1% level and the coefficient on Tobin’s q is positive and significant at the 5% level. Thus, bondholders of the borrowing firms realize higher returns when their firms perform poorly or when they have good future prospects. In model (5), we replace the ratio of operating income before depreciation to total assets with past cumulative excess stock returns and find that the coefficient on this variable is negative and significant at the 1% level. However, the coefficient on Tobin’s q becomes insignificant. In model (6), we include all three of these variables and find that the coefficients on both the ratio of operating income before depreciation to total assets and past cumulative excess stock returns are negative and significant. The coefficient on firm size is negative and significant, suggesting that the benefits of bank financing to borrower bondholders are more pronounced for smaller firms. In model (7), we include all of the explanatory variables used in the previous regressions. We find that the coefficients on the ratio of operating income before depreciation to total assets, past cumulative excess stock returns, and firm size are negative and significant, and the coefficient on Tobin’s q is positive and significant. However, other risk variables turn out to be statistically insignificant. These results suggest that firm performance and growth opportunities play a more important role in explaining abnormal bond returns around bank loan announcements than firm risk does. Finally, in models (8) and (9), we examine the interaction effect of past performance and future growth opportunity on bond returns. We construct a dummy variable that takes 21 the value of one if the ratio of operating income before depreciation to total assets (past cumulative excess stock return) is below the sample median and Tobin’s q is above the sample median, and zero otherwise. The coefficient on this dummy variable is 0.03 (0.035) and significant at the 5 % (1%) level. These results suggest that the average bond CAR of firms that have poor past operating (stock return) performance and good growth opportunities is higher than that of other firms by 3% (3.5%). Therefore, the interaction effect of firm performance and growth opporttmities on bondholder wealth seems to be both statistically and economically significant. In summary, both univariate and multivariate analyses suggest that bondholders of borrowing firms earn higher returns if their firms perform poorly, if they have good future growth opportunity, and if they are small. Abnormal bond returns are particularly higher when firms perform poorly but have good future growth opportunities. These results do not support the wealth transfer hypothesis or leverage hypothesis, but strongly support the monitoring hypothesis. Table 8 reports the regression estimates using stock CARs (-1, 1) as the dependent variable. We use as explanatory variables those used in Table 7. In the first regression, we find that the coefficients on the equity beta and leverage variables are positive and significant. Thus, abnormal stock returns around bank loan announcements are greater for risky firms than for safe firms. In the second regression we replace equity beta with stock return volatility. The estimated coefficient on the stock return volatility is again positive with a p-value of 0.01. In the third regression, we include all of the risk variables as explanatory variables. We find that the coefficients on stock return volatility and leverage are positive and significant, but the coefficient on equity beta is positive and 22 insignificant. Thus, stock returns are higher when risky firms borrow funds from banks. These findings are generally consistent with those in Table 7, which uses bond returns as the dependent variable. In models (4) through (6), we use past performance and growth opportunities as the main determinants of abnormal stock returns. In all three models, the estimated coefficients on past operating and stock return performance are negative and significant at the 1% level, suggesting that shareholders of borrowing firms realize higher returns from bank financing when their firms perform poorly in the past. These results are again consistent with those using abnormal bond retmns as the dependent variable. In model (7), we include all explanatory variables used in the previous regressions. We find that stock CARs are negatively and significantly related to past operating and stock return performance. The coefficients on other variables, however, are not significant. In the last two regressions, we examine the interaction effect of past performance and future grth opportunity on stock returns. In model (8), the coefficient on the dummy variable for lower past operating performance and higher Tobin’s q is an insignificant 0.013 while in model (9), the coefficient on the dummy variable for lower past stock return performance and higher Tobin’s q is a significant 0.033. Overall, the results in Table 8 are similar to those in Table 7. We find that both bondholders and shareholders of the borrowing firms benefit more from bank financing when their firms face higher risk. When borrowing firms perform poorly, particularly when they have good future growth opportunities, valuable monitoring services that bank 23 loans bring to the borrowing firms also benefit both their shareholders and bondholders. Taken together, these results strongly support the monitoring hypothesis. In further analysis, we explicitly consider the direct implication of the wealth transfer hypothesis by exploring the variables that measure the security of new bank loans and bonds outstanding. We also consider the variables that measure new bank loans’ relative security and size compared to bonds outstanding. The results are presented in Table 9. The dependent variable in the first five columns of Table 9 is the bond CAR (-1, 1). In models (1) through (3), we use, respectively, a dummy variable that equals one if the new bank loans are not secured and zero otherwise, a dtnnmy variable that equals one if the bonds outstanding have higher security (i.e., the bond security level is either “senior” or “senior secured”) and zero otherwise, and a dummy variable that equals one if the new bank loans are secured but the bonds outstanding have low security (i.e., the bond 9’ C" junior or subordinate, ,9 ‘6 security level is either “junior subordinate, senior subordinate,” or “not specified”) and zero otherwise. As we discussed earlier, both the wealth transfer and the leverage hypotheses predict that the impact of new bank loans to current bondholders will be less detrimental in the first two cases but more detrimental in the last case. In other words, if the wealth transfer and the leverage hypotheses hold, we should observe more negative coefficients on the third dummy variable but less so on the first two dummy variables. However, we find that the coefficients on all three dummy variables are not significant. To investigate the effect of relative maturity between new bank loans and existing bonds on bondholder wealth, in model (4) we include a dummy variable that equals one if loan maturity is longer than bond maturity and zero otherwise. Under both the wealth 24 transfer and the leverage hypotheses, the longer the maturity of loans relative to bonds, the less likely that the current bondholders will suffer since the firm can use the proceeds from loans to pay off the bonds as needed. Consequently, controlling for other effects, we expect the coefficient on this dummy variable to be positive. The result, however, shows that it is negative and insignificant. Finally, in model (5) we replace the relative maturity dummy variable with a relative size dummy variable that equals one if loan size is larger than bond size and zero otherwise. The wealth transfer hypothesis predicts that, the larger the relative loan size, the more the room for the borrowing firm to engage in wealth transfer from the current bondholders to stockholders (through, for example, risky investments and stock repurchases). In addition, the leverage hypothesis predicts that the larger the relative loan size, the more detrimental it is to current bondholders. So both hypotheses predict a negative relation between relative size disparity and bondholder returns. However, we find that the coefficient on a relative size dummy variable is not significant. In the next five columns of Table 9, we use the stock CAR (-1, 1) as the dependent variable. The coefficients on an unsecured loan dummy variable in model (6), a relative maturity dummy variable in (9), and a relative size dummy variable in (10) are not significant. On the other hand, the coefficient on a high bond security dummy in model (7) is positive and significant and the coefficient on a relative security dummy in model (8) is negative and significant. Since the wealth transfer hypothesis predicts that the coefficient on the dummy variable in model (7) is negative and those in models (8) and (10) are positive, these results are not consistent with the wealth transfer hypothesis. 25 Overall, we find no evidence to support the view that the positive abnormal stock returns surrounding announcements of bank credit agreements are due to either a wealth transfer from the current bondholder to the stockholders or a leverage effect. 4. 3. Relation between Abnormal Bond and Stock Returns The three hypotheses regarding the valuation effect of bank loan announcements also suggest that abnormal bond returns and abnormal stock returns for the borrowing firms are related, possibly due to bank monitoring, wealth transfer, or leverage effects. In this section, we examine the relation between abnormal bond and stock returns and show how the sensitivity of abnormal bond returns to abnormal stock returns differs across firm performance and future growth opportunities. Table 10 reports the regression estimates. We use the bond CARs (-1, l) for the borrowing firms as the dependent variable. In model (1), we include the stock CARs (-l, 1) for the borrowing firms and firm size as the explanatory variables. We find that the coefficient on the stock CAR (-1, 1) is 0.268, which is significant at the 1% level. Evaluating the estimated coefficient at the mean indicates that all else being constant, a 10% increase in the stock CARs is associated with an approximately 2.68% increase in the bond CARS. Therefore, the positive relation between the bond CARS and the stock CARs seems to be both statistically and economically significant. The positive relation between the stock and the bond CARs supports the monitoring hypothesis, which predicts that bank financing brings benefits to both shareholders and bondholders. However, this result is not consistent with the wealth transfer hypothesis, 26 which predicts a negative relation between abnormal stock and bond returns, nor is it consistent with the leverage hypothesis, which predicts a non-positive relation. To examine whether the sensitivity of abnormal bond returns is different depending on past borrower performance, in model (2) we include as explanatory variables a dummy variable for good past operating performance and an interaction term between this dummy and the stock CAR (-1, 1). The dummy variable for good past operating performance takes the value of one if the ratio of operating income before depreciation to total assets is above the sample median and zero otherwise. Here, therefore, the stock CAR (-1, 1) measures the association between a poorly performing firm’s stock CAR (-1, 1) and its bond CAR (-1, 1). We find that the coefficients on the stock CAR (-1, 1) and its interaction with the dummy for good past operating performance are significantly positive (correlation coefficient = 0.393) and negative (correlation coefficient = -0.325), respectively. Thus, relative to poorly performing borrowers, the extent of the positive relation between the stock CAR (-1, l) and the bond CAR (-1, 1) is less for the good performing borrowers. These results are consistent with the view that the market’s positive valuation of bank monitoring is more pronounced when the borrowing firm performs poorly, but are not consistent with the wealth transfer hypothesis, which predicts a negative relation between abnormal stock and bond returns. In model (3), we replace the dummy variable for good past operating performance in model (2) with a dummy variable for good past stock performance. The dummy variable for geod past stock performance takes the value of one if the previous one-year excess returns for the borrowing firm are above the sample median and zero otherwise. Consistent with the results in model (2), we find that the coefficient on the stock CAR (- 27 1, l) is significantly positive (correlation coefficient = 0.291) but the coefficient on its interaction with the dummy for good past stock performance is significantly negative (correlation coefficient = -0.270). Thus, the positive relation between the stock CAR (-1, 1) and the bond CAR (-1 , l) is stronger for borrowers whose stocks have performed poorly in the past. This result is again inconsistent with the wealth transfer hypothesis. In model (4), we examine whether the link between the stock CAR (-1, 1) and the bond CAR (-1, l) is different between borrowing firms with good future growth opportunities and those with poor future growth opportunities. To make this comparison, we use a dummy for high Tobin’s q and an interaction term between this dummy and the stock CAR (-1, 1). A dummy variable for high Tobin’s q takes the value of one if the borrower’s Tobin’s q is above the sample median and zero otherwise. The coefficient on the stock CAR (-1, 1) is significantly positive. The coefficient on the interaction term between the stock CAR (-1, 1) and the dummy for high Tobin’s q, however, is insignificantly positive. Thus, the positive relation between the stock CAR (-1 , 1) and the bond CAR (-1, 1) exists irrespective of borrower Tobin’s q. In model (5) we repeat the analysis of the previous regressions but using a dummy variable for poor past operating performance and high Tobin’s q and an interaction term between this dummy and the stock CAR (-1, 1). The dummy variable for poor past operating performance and high Tobin’s q takes the value of one if the ratio of operating income before depreciation to total assets is below the sample median and Tobin’s q is above the sample median and zero otherwise. The monitoring hypothesis predicts that the signaling effect of the lending bank’s commitment to provide monitoring services is larger when borrowers perform poorly, but have good future growth opportunities. 28 Consistent with this View, we find that the coefficient on the interaction term between the stock CAR (-1, l) and the dummy. for poor past operating performance and high Tobin’s q is positive and significant. In model (6), we repeat the same analysis using a dummy variable for poor past stock performance and high Tobin’s q. The dummy variable for poor past stock performance and high Tobin’s q takes the value of one if the previous one-year excess returns for the borrowing firm are below the sample median and Tobin’s q is above the sample median and zero otherwise. We again find that the coefficient on the interaction term between the stock CAR (-1, l) and the dummy for poor past stock performance and high Tobin’s q is positive and significant. In the last regression, we use a dummy variable for secured loans and low security bonds and an interaction term between this dummy and the stock CAR (- l , 1). The dummy variable for secured loans and low security bonds takes the value of one if new bank loans are secured and bonds outstanding have lower security. To the extent that the wealth transfer from borrower bondholders to either lending banks or borrower shareholders is more likely to occur when new bank loans are secured but bonds outstanding have lower security, the wealth transfer hypothesis predicts that the coefficient on the interaction term is negative. Since the adverse effect of an increase in leverage on bondholder wealth is more severe in this case, the leverage hypothesis also predicts a negative coefficient on this interaction term. However, we find that the coefficient on the interaction term is positive and insignificant. 29 In untabulated tests, we include variables used in Table 7 as explanatory variables and find that the results are qualitatively similar to those reported in Table 10, albeit the coefficients on interaction terms in models (3) and (4) are marginally insignificant. Overall, the results in Table 10 indicate that the positive relation between abnormal bond and stock returns is most pronounced for borrowing firms that perform poorly, particularly those that have high Tobin’s q. These results suggest that the benefits of bank monitoring are greater for firms that are financially weaker, but have good future prospects, supporting the monitoring hypothesis. 5. Summary and Conclusion Using daily bond and stock return data, we investigate the valuation effect of borrowing firms surrounding announcements of bank credit agreements during the 1995 to 2003 period. We consider three competing hypotheses regarding the valuation effect of bank loan announcements. According to the monitoring hypothesis, banks play a special role as information transmitters in the capital markets and perform an important value- enhancing intermediary function for both the shareholders and the bondholders of the borrowing firms. The wealth transfer hypothesis posits that bank credit agreements lead to wealth transfer fiom either lending banks or bondholders to shareholders of borrowing firms. The leverage hypothesis suggests that, assuming borrowing firms are not risky or current leverage is low, the additional tax benefits resulting from the new bank loan financing increase shareholder wealth. However, the impact of an increase in leverage due to new bank loan financing on bondholder wealth is expected to be either negligible if the firm is healthy or negative if the higher leverage imposes significant financial 30 distress risk on bondholders, implying a non-positive effect of loan announcements on bondholder wealth. Our results strongly support the monitoring hypothesis. We find that bank loan agreements are associated with positive announcement returns for both shareholders and bondholders of borrowing firms. For example, the average three-day cumulative abnormal return surrounding announcements of bank credit agreements is 1.48% for shareholders, 1.01% for bondholders, and 1.15% for the entire firm, all of which are significant at the 5% level. We also find that both abnormal bond and stock returns are considerably higher for firms that are riskier and firms that Show worse performance. In particular, the bond (stock) market’s positive valuation of bank loan financing is more pronounced when the borrowing firm performs poorly but has good future prospects. For example, all else constant, the bondholders (shareholders) of the borrowing firms with poor past stock performance and high Tobin’s q realize a 3.5% (3.3%) higher abnormal announcement return, significant at the 5% level or lower, than those of other types of borrowing firms. These results are inconsistent with either the wealth transfer hypothesis or the leverage hypothesis. Furthermore, we find no evidence supporting these two hypotheses along other dimensions. In particular, we find that the abnormal bond returns are not statistically different between the two subgroups in each of the following cases: (1) loans that are relatively more secured than bonds versus loans that are relatively less secured than bonds; (2) loans that have relatively longer maturity than bonds versus loans that have relatively shorter maturity than bonds; and (3) loans that have relative larger size than bonds versus loans that have relatively smaller size than bonds. Abnormal stock 31 returns show similar patterns except that secured loans with lower bond security have lower abnormal stock returns than other types of loans. Finally, we find that bond announcement returns are positively and significantly related to stock announcement returns and that this positive relation is more pronounced when borrowing firms perform poorly, particularly when they have good future prospects. These results further support the monitoring hypothesis, which posits that a bank’s decision to lend to borrowers signals the lending bank’s commitment to provide monitoring services — services that have a positive effect on both shareholder and bondholder wealth of borrowing firms. Overall, examining both stock and bond returns data, this paper provides new evidence on the valuation effect of bank loan announcements and its cross-sectional determinants. The results strongly support the view that banks perform a valuable monitoring function for both shareholders and bondholders of borrowing firms, and reject the wealth transfer and the leverage hypotheses as a potential explanation for the positive excess stock returns surrounding bank loan announcements. 32 APPENDIX 33 Table 1 Predictions of Monitoring, Wealth Transfer, and Leverage Hypotheses for Key Variables This table summarizes the predictions of the monitoring, wealth transfer, and leverage hypotheses for key variables. The monitoring hypothesis posits that banks play a special role as information transmitters in the capital markets and perform an important value-enhancing intermediary function for both shareholders and bondholders of the borrowing firms. The wealth transfer hypothesis posits that bank credit agreements lead to wealth transfer from either lending banks or bondholders to shareholders of the borrowing firms. The leverage hypothesis suggests that, assuming borrowing firms are not risky or current leverage is low, the higher leverage resulting fiom the new bank loan financing is beneficial to shareholders. However, the impact of such an increase in leverage on bondholder wealth is likely to be either negligible if the firm is healthy or negative if the higher leverage imposes significant financial distress risk on bondholders, implying a non-positive effect of loan announcements on bondholder wealth. Monitoring Wealth Leverage Empirical results hypothesis transfer hypothesis hypothesis Abnormal stock + + + + returns Abnormal bond returns + - Non-positive + Effect of high risk, poor Positive Not clear Negative Positive effect on past performance, and effect on effect on abnormal stock returns high grth on abnormal abnormal abnormal stock and stock returns stock returns bond returns Positive Negative Positive effect on effect on effect on abnormal abnormal abnormal bond returns bond returns Bond returns Effect of higher Not clear Positive effect Not clear Negative (no) effect of seniority (higher on abnormal higher loan security security and shorter stock returns (shorter maturity and maturity) and larger larger size) on size of new bank loans abnormal stock returns than bonds on abnormal stock and Negative Negative No effect on abnormal bond returns effect on effect on bond returns abnormal abnormal bond returns Bond returns Correlation between + - Non-positive + abnormal stock and bond returns 34 Table 2 Distribution of Bank Loan Announcements by Year and Borrower Industry The sample consists of 254 bank loan announcements fiom 1995 to 2003. The sample is compiled by searching Factiva for loan announcements. To be included in the sample, borrowing firms must have daily bond return data in DATASTREAM, daily stock return data in CRSP, financial data in COMPUSTAT, and bond characteristic data, such as rating and bond security, in the Fixed Income Security Database. Financial and utility companies are excluded from the sample. Firms for which bond prices do not move at all during the event window (days —170 to +10 relative to the bank loan announcement), and firms that release other important information with the bank loan announcement are also excluded. Agriculture, Year Fifiifiifib d Construction Manufacturing 21681132333232; “lhgifjfile faint? Total Mining 1995 0 O 4 1 l 0 6 1996 2 1 5 3 2 7 20 1997 2 0 15 1 1 6 25 1998 0 O 7 1 0 2 10 1999 1 1 5 3 l 0 11 2000 2 0 4 3 2 3 14 2001 l 1 37 18 9 10 76 2002 2 2 20 13 8 10 55 2003 2 O 18 6 4 7 37 Total 12 5 1 15 49 28 45 254 35 Table 3 Summary Statistics of Borrowers, New Bank Loans, and Bonds Outstanding The sample consists of 254 bank loan announcements from 1995 to 2003. The sample is compiled by searching F activa for loan announcements. To be included in the sample, borrowing firms must have daily bond return data in DATASTREAM, daily stock return data in CRSP, financial data in COMPUSTAT, and bond characteristic data, such as rating and bond security, in the Fixed Income Security Database. Financial and utility companies are excluded from the sample. Firms for which bond prices do not move at all during the event window (days —l7O to +10 relative to the bank loan announcement), and firms that release other important information with the bank loan announcement are also excluded. When a borrowing firm has multiple bonds outstanding, bond security, rating, and maturity are estimated as the weighted average of the bonds’ securities, ratings, and maturities, respectively, where the weights are assigned according to the face values of the bonds. The bond security score ranges from one to six, with a higher score indicating higher security. Specifically, the score takes the value of one if the bond security level is junior subordinate, two if it is junior or subordinate, three if it has no special security features, four it is senior subordinate, five if it is senior, and six if it is senior secured. The bond rating score ranges from one to eight, with a higher score indicating lower rating. Specifically, the score takes the value of one if the bond rating is AAA or Aaa, two if it is AA or Aa, three if it is single A, four if it is triple BBB or Baa, five if it is BB or Ba, six if it is B, seven if it is triple CCC or Caa, and eight if it is lower than the 7th category. 36 Table 3 Sample Mean Median $31.1de srze devratron Panel A: Characteristics of borrowing firms Total assets (in billion dollars) 254 10.95 3.40 22.76 Sales (in billion dollars) 254 8.27 2.30 18.28 Market value of equity (in billion dollars) 252 10.10 1.79 27.06 Leverage (T ptal debt / (Total debt + Market 252 0.432 0.388 0245 value of equrty)) Sspgsatmg income before deprecratron / Total 253 0.114 0.116 0.108 Tobin’s q ((Market value of equity + Book value of debt) / Total assets) 252 1'219 ””6 0'857 Past one-year cumulative excess stock returns 254 0.030 0.085 0.878 Equity beta 254 0.933 0.842 0.600 Stock return volatility (Standard deviation of 254 0.588 0.461 0.386 prevrous one-year darly excess stock returns) Panel B: Characteristics of new bank loans Size of loans (in billion dollars) 240 1.20 0.50 2.82 Dummy for secured loans 192 0.620 - - Maturity of loans (in years) 155 3.507 3.000 1.837 Panel C: Characteristics of bonds outstanding Size of bonds outstanding (in billion dollars) 254 1.02 0.34 1.90 Bond security 254 4.654 5.000 0.544 Bond rating 253 4.878 5.000 1.413 Maturity of bonds (in years) 254 7.950 6.325 5.992 37 Table 4 Mean and Median Cumulative Abnormal Returns (CAR) around the Announcement Date (AD) The sample consists of 254 bank loan announcements from 1995 to 2003. The sample is compiled by searching F activa for loan announcements. To be included in the sample, borrowing frrrns must have daily bond return data in DATASTREAM, daily stock return data in CRSP, financial data in COMPUSTAT, and bond characteristic data, such as rating and bond security, in the Fixed Income Security Database. Financial and utility companies are excluded from the sample. Firms for which bond prices do not move at all during the event window (days —170 to +10 relative to the bank loan announcement), and firms that release other important information with the bank loan announcement are also excluded. Abnormal stock returns are computed using the market model. The market model is estimated by using 150 trading days of stock return data ending 20 days before the loan announcement. The CRSP value-weighted return is used as the benchmark. Abnormal bond returns (ABR) are computed using the following model: ABRit = BRit — (ai + ,8] x Chg_Spreadt + ,8 2 x Chg_Slopet), where BRitis the daily bond return of borrower i at time t, Chg_Spreadt is the change in aggregate credit spread at time t, which is defined as the change in the Baa- over Aaa- rated bond yields, and Chg_SIopet is the change in the slope of the yield curve at time t, which is defined as the change in the difference between lO-year Treasury over l-year Treasury yields. This model is estimated using 150 trading days of bond return data ending 20 days before the loan announcement. When a borrowing firm has multiple bonds outstanding, the ABR is estimated as the weighted average of the bonds’ abnormal returns, where the weights are assigned according to the face value of each bond. The daily abnormal stock (bond) returns are accumulated to obtain the stock (bond) cumulative abnormal return (CAR) between any two dates. AD refers to the announcement date. Numbers in parentheses are p-values for the test that the mean/median is equal to zero. The firm CAR is estimated as a value-weighted average of the stock CAR and the bond CAR with the weights being the market value of equity and the book value of debt measured at the fiscal year-end that immediately precedes an announcement date. 38 Table 4 Event windows 83:16 Mean Median Panel A: Stock CARs (%) (A.-.) 2323.33 '83:; In; 2:35 (AD+1) 254 30.14368) 36.17393 (W... 15:31: 3.33.: (AD-1, AD+1) 254 1637092? frills; Panel B: Bond CARs(%) (ADJ) 254 (393197) (3.215; (A1» 254 is???) 23:31? (A...) 3.15:. 3.93:; (AD'I’ AD) 254 I 33.51525; (3.228)) (arm... 25. (3.103;: 369:; Panel C: Firm CARs (%) w» 23:22.: is: in: at; (AD+1) 252 €6.23) 3097187) «mm “£83" is, (AD-1, AD+1) 252 16(1):)823‘ 35.11847) 39 Table 5 Three-Day Cumulative Abnormal Returns (CARs) for Borrowing Firms Categorized by Firm and Loan Seniority Characteristics The sample consists of 254 bank loan announcements from 1995 to 2003. The sample is compiled by searching F activa for loan announcements. To be included in the sample, borrowing firms must have daily bond return data in DATASTREAM, daily stock return data in CRSP, financial data in COMPUSTAT, and bond characteristic data, such as rating and bond security, in the Fixed Income Security Database. Financial and utility companies are excluded from the sample. Firms for which bond prices do not move at all during the event window (days —170 to +10 relative to the bank loan announcement), and firms that release other important information with the bank loan announcement are also excluded. Abnormal stock returns are computed using the market model. The market model is estimated by using 150 trading days of stock return data ending 20 days before the loan announcement. The CRSP value-weighted return is used as the benchmark. Abnormal bond returns (ABR) are computed using the following model: ABR” = BRit — (ai + ,8] x Chg_Spreadt + ,8 2 x Chg_Slopet), where Brit is the daily bond return of borrower i at time t, Chg_Spreadt is the change in aggregate credit spread at time t, which is defined as the change in the Baa- over Aaa- rated bond yields, and Chg_SIopet is the change in the Slope of the yield curve at time t, which is defined as the change in the difference between 10-year Treasury over l-year Treasury yields. This model is estimated using 150 trading days of bond return data ending 20 days before the loan announcement. When a borrowing firm has multiple bonds outstanding, the ABR is estimated as the weighted average of the bonds’ abnormal retruns, where the weights are assigned according to the face value of each bond. The daily abnormal stock (bond) returns are accumulated to obtain three-day cumulative abnormal return (CAR) from day -1 to day +1 relative to the announcement date. Low security bonds are those for which the security level is either “junior subordinate,” “jtmior or subordinate,” “senior subordinate,” or “not specified.” Numbers in parentheses are p-values for the test that the mean/median is equal to zero. 40 Table 5 Bond CARS (-l, 1) Stock CARs (-l, 1) Mean Median Mean Median Panel A: By bond rating _ 0.177 0.032 0.322 0.031 Investment grade bonds (N — 107) (0.15) (0.36) (0.39) (0.30) . = 1.629“ -0.043 2.323" 0.644 Non-investment grade bonds (N 146) (0.06) (0.99) (0.02) (0.33) Tes t-o f. di fference 1.452“ 0.075 2.001 * 0.613 (0.09) (0.4@ (0.07) (0.99) Panel B: By equity beta . _ 0.435 0.000 0.356 0.031 Below sample median (N - 127) (0.31) (0.71) (0.66) (0.92) . _ 1.588" 0.022 2603*" 0660* Ab” samPl" med‘a“ (N ’ ‘27) (0.08) (0.72) (0.01) (0.06) . 1.153 0.022 2.247 * 0.629 Tes‘ff'd‘ffe’ence (0.24) (0.85) (0.07) 40.15) Panel C: By volatility (Standard deviation of previous one-year daily excess stock returns) . _ 0.006 0.000 -0.331 0.018 Below sample median (N - 127) (0.96) (0.63) (0.25) (0.96) . ___ 2.018" 0.032 3290*“ 1.181" Above sample median (N 127) (0.04) (0.28) (0.01) (0.04) 1.65th -di fference 2.012" 0.032 3621*" 1.163" (0.04) (0.38) ($00) (0.09) Panel D: By leverage (Total debt / (Total debt + Market value of equity)) . _ 0.020 0.015 0.103 0.029 Below sample median (N - 126) (0.92) (0.90) (0.77) (0.45) . = 2.022" 0.003 2.859" 0.653 Ab” saml’le med‘a“ (N ‘26) (0.04) (0.56) (0.02) (0.22) Test-of-difference 2.002“ 0.012 2.756" 0.624 (0.04) (0.83) (0.03) (0.67) Panel B: By operating performance (Operating income before depreciation / Total assets) . _ 2.033" -0.065 2849*" 1.224“ 381°“ “mm" mm“ (N ‘ ‘26) (0.04) (0.95) (0.00) (0.03) . _ 0.016 0.027 0.164 -0.131 Abm’e “mm“ mm“ (N " 127) (0.92) (0.29) (0.83) (0.71) Test-of- difference 2.017" 0.092 2.685" 1.355" (0.04) (0.39) (0.03) (0.05) Panel F: By stock return performance (Previous one-year cumulative daily excess returns) . _ 1.976" 0.020 2.913M 1.248" Below sample median (N — 127) (0.04) (0.42) (0.01) (0.02) . = 0.048 -0.009 0.046 -0.380 Ab” 53mm" ”‘1‘“ (N ‘27) (0.73) (0.83) (0.92) (0.53) . 1.928" 0.029 2.867" 1.628" Tes"°f’d‘ffe’°”°e (0.05) (0.47) (0.02) (0.03) 41 Table 5 (cont’d) Panel G: By Tobin’s q (Market value of equity + Book value of total debt) / Total assets)) . 0.434 -0093 1.537“ 0.369 Below sample medran (N = 125) (0.36) (0.13) (0.03) (0.37) . _ 1599* 0.097" 1.426 0.411 Above sample medran (N — 127) (0.07) (0.03) (0.16) (0.38) Temfidifimme 1.165 0.190“ 0.1 11 0.042 (0.24) (0.01) (0.93) (0.95) Panel H: By relative security between loans and bonds Loan is secured and bond has lower security (N = 44) 3625099; 300587) ((0278) 2332:; = 1.781" 0.001 3.048m 1139*" Others (N ‘48) (0.03) (0.86) (0.00) (0.01) . 1572* 0.036 3819*" 1.226" Tesmmffe’ence (0.09) (0.74) (0.00) (0.05) Panel 1: By relative maturity between loans and bonds . . 0.630 0.01 1 1.673" 0715* “’3“ mam” <= b°“d mat‘m‘y (N = 13 1) (0.24) (0.65) (0.02) (0.09) . . = 0.253 -0.093 1.844 1.656 L03“ mam” > b‘m“ mam” (N 24) (0.31) (0.87) (0.31) (0.45) Temfidifimm 0.377 0.104 0.171 0.941 (0.52) (0.96) (0.93) (0.61) Panel J: By relative size between loans and bonds . _ . _ 1291* -0.028 1.547 0.307 ”a” 5‘23 <‘ b‘md 5‘28 (N ‘ 129) (0.09) (0.81) (0.14) (0.84) . . = 0.145 0.024 1129* 0.585 ”a” 317‘" > b‘md 517:6 (N 11 1) (0.24) (0.56) (0.05) (0.13) . 1.146 0.052 0.418 0.278 Tes‘fff‘fferenc" (0.13) (0.79) (0.73) (0.35) 42 Table 6 Three-Day Cumulative Abnormal Returns (CARs) for Borrowing Firms by Borrower Performance and Growth Opportunities The sample consists of 254 bank loan announcements from 1995 to 2003. The sample is compiled by searching F activa for loan announcements. To be included in the sample, borrowing firms must have daily bond return data in DATASTREAM, daily stock return data in CRSP, financial data in COMPUSTAT, and bond characteristic data, such as rating and bond security, in the Fixed Income Security Database. Financial and utility companies are excluded ffom the sample. Firms for which bond prices do not move at all during the event window (days —170 to +10 relative to the bank loan announcement), and firms that release other important information with the bank loan announcement are also excluded. Abnormal stock returns are computed using the market model. The market model is estimated by using 150 trading days of stock return data ending 20 days before the loan announcement. The CRSP value-weighted return is used as the benchmark. Abnormal bond returns (ABR) are computed using the following model: ABRit = BRit — (ai + ,B 1 x Chg__Spreadt + )6 2 x Chg_Slopet), where Brit is the daily bond return of borrower i at time t, Chg_Spreadt is the change in aggregate credit spread at time t, which is defined as the change in the Baa- over Aaa- rated bond yields, and Chg_Slopet is the change in the slope of the yield curve at time t, which is defined as the change in the difference between 10-year Treasury over l-year Treasury yields. This model is estimated using 150 trading days of bond return data ending 20 days before the loan announcement. When a borrowing firm has multiple bonds outstanding, the ABR is estimated as the weighted average of the bonds’ abnormal returns, where the weights are assigned according to the face value of each bond. The daily abnormal stock (bond) returns are accumulated to obtain three-day cumulative abnormal return (CAR) from day -1 to day +1 relative to the announcement date. Growth opportunity is measured by Tobin’s q ((market value of equity + book value of total debt) / total assets). Numbers in parentheses are p-values for the test that the mean/median is equal to zero. 43 Table 6 Panel A: Bond CARS (-1, 1) across past operating performance and growth opportunities Growth opportunities (Tobin’s q) High Low Test-of-difference N Mean Median N Mean Median Mean Median Operating Low 41 4.784" 0.466“ 84 0.714 -0.159 4.070 0.625” rgctome (0.08) (0.08) (0.29) (0.13) (0.14) (0.04) e ore depreciation High 86 0.081 0.03 1 40 -0.1 15 0.009 0.196 0.022 [Total assets (0.58) (0.13) (0.75) (0.83) (0.62) (0.40) Test-of- 4.703 "‘ 0.435 0.829 0.168 difference (0.08) (0.19) (0.28) (0.3 1) Panel B: Stock CARS (-1, 1) across past operating performance and growth opportunities Growth opportunities (Tobin’s q) High Low Test-of-difference N Mean Median N Mean Median Mean Median Operating Low 41 3.743" 1.351 84 2.431" 0.925 1.312 0.426 1::ng (0.08) (0.13) (0.02) (0.14) (0.57) (0.60) ore depreciation High 86 0.321 -0.087 40 -0.200 -0.256 0.521 0.169 fTotal assets (0.78) (0.87) (0.70) (0.56) (0.67) (0.70) Test-of- 3 .422 1.438" 2.631“ "' 1.181 difference (0.12) (0.09) (0.02) (0.20) Table 6 (cont’d) Panel C: Bond CARs (-1, 1) across past stock return performance and growth opportunities Growth opportunities (Tobin’s q) High Low Test-of-difference N Mean Median N Mean Median Mean Median Previous Low 64 2.949" 0.132“ 61 1.025 -0.1 12 1.924 0.244 one-year (0.09) (0.09) (0.28) (0.66) (0.33) (0.16) cumulative excess stock High 63 0.228 0.032 64 -0. 129 -0.073"' 0.357 0.105" returns (0.27) (0.16) (0.47) (0.08) (0. 19) (0.03) Test-of— 2.721 0.100 1.154 0.039 difference (0.12) (0.61) (0.23) (0.59) Panel D: Stock CARs (-1, 1) across past stock return performance and growth opportunities Growth opportunities (Tobin’s q) High Low Test-of-difference N Mean Median N Mean Median Previous Low 64 3.117 1.338 61 2.752" 1.125 0.365 0.213 0113'”?! (0.11) (0.11) (0.03) (0.18) (0.87) (0.76) cumulative excess stock High 63 -0.292 -0.048 64 0.379 -0.402 0.671 0.354 retmns (0.59) (0.51) (0.58) (0.83) (0.44) (0.81) Test-of- 3.409* 1.386“ 2.373“ 1.527 difference (0.09) (0.07) (0.09) (0.20) 45 Table 7 OLS Regression of the Three-Day Cumulative Abnormal Bond Returns on Explanatory Variables The sample consists of 254 bank loan announcements from 1995 to 2003. The sample is compiled by searching F activa for loan announcements. To be included in the sample, borrowing firms must have daily bond return data in DATASTREAM, daily stock return data in CRSP, financial data in COMPUSTAT, and bond characteristic data, such as rating and bond security, in the Fixed Income Security Database. Financial and utility companies are excluded fi'om the sample. Firms for which bond prices do not move at all during the event window (days —170 to +10 relative to the bank loan announcement), and firms that release other important information with the bank loan announcement are also excluded. Abnormal bond returns (ABR) are computed using the following model: ABRit = BRit — (ai + ,8] x Chg_Spreadt + [32 x Chg_SIopet), where BRitis the daily bond return of borrower i at time t, Chg_Spreadt is the change in aggregate credit spread at time t, which is defined as the change in the Baa- over Aaa- rated bond yields, and Chg_Slopet is the change in the slope of the yield curve at time t, which is defined as the change in the difference between 10-year Treasury over l-year Treasury yields. This model is estimated using 150 trading days of bond return data ending 20 days before the loan announcement. When a borrowing firm has multiple bonds outstanding, the ABR is estimated as the weighted average of the bonds’ abnormal returns, where the weights are assigned according to the face value of each bond. The daily abnormal bond returns are accumulated to obtain three-day cumulative abnormal return (CAR) from day -1 to day +1 relative to the announcement date. Numbers in parentheses are p-values. ***, **, and * denote significance of the parameter estimates at the 1%, 5%, and 10% levels, respectively. 46 am 8m 5 8m N8. 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To be included in the sample, borrowing firms must have daily bond return data in DATASTREAM, daily stock return data in CRSP, financial data in COMPUSTAT, and bond characteristic data, such as rating and bond security, in the Fixed Income Security Database. Financial and utility companies are excluded from the sample. Firms for which bond prices do not move at all during the event window (days —170 to +10 relative to the bank loan announcement), and firms that release other important information with the bank loan announcement are also excluded. Abnormal stock returns are computed using the market model. The market model is estimated by using 150 trading days of stock return data ending 20 days before the loan announcement. The CRSP value-weighted return is used as the benchmark. The daily abnormal stock returns are cumulated to obtain three- day cmnulative abnormal return (CAR) from day -1 to day +1 relative to the announcement date. 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RS? 8885 A8 a: E 833.8, .5838:— 8888 a «38. 51 Table 9 OLS Regression of the Three-Day Cumulative Abnormal Bond and Stock Returns on Wealth Transfer Variables The sample consists of 254 bank loan announcements from 1995 to 2003. The sample is compiled by searching Factiva for loan announcements. To be included in the sample, borrowing firms must have daily bond return data in DATASTREAM, daily stock return data in CRSP, financial data in COMPUSTAT, and bond characteristic data, such as rating and bond security, in the Fixed Income Security Database. Financial and utility companies are excluded from the sample. Firms for which bond prices do not move at all during the event window (days --170 to +10 relative to the bank loan announcement), and firms that release other important information with the bank loan announcement are also excluded. Abnormal stock returns are computed using the market model. 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The sample is compiled by searching F activa for loan announcements. To be included in the sample, borrowing firms must have daily bond return data in DATASTREAM, daily stock return data in CRSP, financial data in COMPUSTAT, and bond characteristic data, such as rating and bond security, in the Fixed Income Security Database. Financial and utility companies are excluded from the sample. Firms for which bond prices do not move at all during the event window (days -170 to +10 relative to the bank loan announcement), and firms that release other important information with the bank loan announcement are also excluded. Abnormal stock returns are computed using the market model. The market model is estimated by using 150 trading days of stock return data ending 20 days before the loan announcement. The CRSP value- weighted return is used as the benchmark. Abnormal bond returns (ABR) are computed using the following model: ABR” = BRit — (ai + '31 x Chg_Spreadt + ,6 2 x Chg_Slopet), where Brit is the daily bond return of borrower i at time t, Chg_Spreadt is the change in aggregate credit spread at time t, which is defined as the change in the Baa- over Aaa-rated bond yields, and Chg_Slopet is the change in the slope of the yield curve at time t, which is defined as the change in the difference between lO-year Treasury over l-year Treasury yields. This model is estimated using 150 trading days of bond return data ending 20 days before the loan announcement. When a borrowing firm has multiple bonds outstanding, the ABR is estimated as the weighted average of the bonds’ abnormal returns, where the weights are assigned according to the face value of each bond. The daily abnormal stock (bond) returns are accumulated to obtain three-day cumulative abnormal return (CAR) from day -1 to day +1 relative to the announcement date. Low security bonds are those for which the security level is either “junior subordinate,” “junior or subordinate,” “senior subordinate,” or “not specified.” Numbers in parentheses are p-values. ***, **, and * denote significance of the parameter estimates at the 1%, 5%, and 10% levels, respectively. 55 Table 10 Independent variables (1) (2) (3) (4) Three-day cumulative abnormal stock returns: 0.2678**"' 0.3926*** 0.2911*** 0.1749" (a) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.04) Operating income before depreciation / Total -0.0081 assets is above the median (dummy): (b) (0.39) (a) x (b) -0.3252*** (0.00) Previous one-year cumulative excess stock -0.0133 return is above the median (dummy): (c) (0.16) (a) x (C) -o.2703* (0.06) Tobin’s q ((Market value of equity + Book 0.0156 value of total debt) / Total assets) is above the (0.11) median (dummy): (d) (a) x ((1) 0.1343 (0.19) Operating income before depreciation / Total assets is below the median / Tobin’s q is above median (dummy): (e) (a) X (6) Previous one-year cumulative excess stock return is below the median / Tobin’s q is above the median (dummy): (0 (a) x (0 Loan is secured loan and bond has low security (dummy): (g) (a) x (g) Log of (Market value of equity + Book value -0.0045 -0.0037 -0.0053"' 00063" of debt) (0.14) (0.23) (0.09) (0.05) Intercept 0.0434“ 0.0389 0.0562" 0.0510" (0.09) (0.13) (0.04) (0.05) Adjusted R2 0.1127 0.1499 0.1260 0.1229 F-value 16.94 12.02 10.05 9.80 No. of observations 252 251 252 252 56 Table 10 (cont’d) Independent variables (5) (6) (7) Three-day cumulative abnormal stock returns: 0.1082" 0.1517* 0.2589*** (a) (0.05) (0.05) (0.00) Operating income before depreciation / Total assets is above the median (dummy): (b) (a) x (b) Previous one-year cumulative excess stock return is above the median (dummy): (c) (a) x (C) Tobin’s q ((Market value of equity + Book value of total debt) / Total assets) is above the median (dummy): ((1) (a) X (d) Operating income before depreciation / Total 0.0271 ** assets is below the median / Tobin’s q is above (0.03) median (dummy): (e) (a) x (e) O.4865*** (0.00) Previous one-year cumulative excess stock 0.0238“ return is below the median / Tobin’s q is (0.03) above the median (dummy): (0 (a) x (t) 01638“ (0.10) Loan is secured loan and bond has low -0.0170 security (dummy): (g) (0.31) (a) x (g) -0.0010 (1.00) Log of (Market value of equity + Book value -0.0060"”" 00068" -0.0076 of debt) (0.04) (0.03) (0.13) Intercept 0.0506" 0.0571 ** 0.0736" (0.04) (0.03) (0.08) Adjusted R2 0.2179 0.1349 0.0985 F-value 18.42 10.79 6.16 No. of observations 251 252 190 57 Figure 1 Cumulative abnormal returns from day -10 to day +10 around the loan announcement. The sample consists of 254 bank loan announcements from 1995 to 2003. The sample is compiled by searching Factiva for loan announcements. To be included in the sample, borrowing firms must have daily bond return data in DATASTREAM, daily stock return data in CRSP, financial data in COMPUSTAT, and bond characteristic data, such as rating and bond security, in the Fixed Income Security Database. Financial and utility companies are excluded from the sample. Firms for which bond prices do not move at all during the event window (days —170 to +10 relative to the bank loan announcement) and firms that release other important information with the bank loan announcement are also excluded. Abnormal stock returns are computed using the market model. The market model is estimated by using 150 trading days of stock return data ending 20 days before the loan announcement. The CRSP value-weighted return is used as the benchmark. Abnormal bond returns (ABR) are computed using the following model: ABRit = BRit — (ai + [9 1 x Chg_Spreadt + ,82 x Chg_Slopet), where Brit is the daily bond return of borrower i at time t, Chg_Spreadt is the change in aggregate credit spread at time t, which is defined as the change in the Baa- over Aaa- rated bond yields, and Chg_SIopet is the change in the slope of the yield curve at time t, which is defined as the change in the difference between 10-year Treasury over l-year Treasury yields. This model is estimated using 150 trading days of bond return data ending 20 days before the loan announcement. When a borrowing firm has multiple bonds outstanding, the ABR is estimated as the weighted average of the bonds’ abnormal returns, where the weights are assigned according to the face value of each bond. The daily abnormal stock (bond) returns are accumulated to obtain cumulative abnormal return (CAR) from day -t to day +t relative to the announcement date. 58 Eo>m 250:6 >60 o._.- £639.62. 65 “2... x08» tea 2.2. «5 .8315: 2:36.. .2533 o>_uu_:E:o (%) uvo . 6.66.... S9 BIBLIOGRAPHY 60 REFERENCES Best, Ronald, and Hang Zhang, 1993, Alternative information sources and the information content of bank loans, Journal of Finance 4, 1507-1523. Billett, Mathew T., Mark J. Flannery, and Jon A. Garfinkel, 1995, The effect of lender identity on borrowing firm’s equity return, Journal of Finance 50, 699-718. Billett, Matthew T., Tao-Hsien Dolly King, and David C. Mauer, 2004, Bondholder wealth effects in mergers and acquisitions: New evidence from the 19803 and 19903, Journal of Finance 59, 107-135. Campbell, Tim S., and William A. Kracaw, 1980, Information production, market signaling, and the theory of financial intermediation, Journal of Finance 35, 863- 882. 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