La... as aw ..u..‘w._ mm.” ~. 14. www .71... fit .3. kw » u . .- II 7. WC! . 4. ‘ 4 . “V: u 44 I A M: a. 5&3? , k 11:3». 1 .. ~£:T.. 1" . 4? :1 5 i. » 2&3.» . L1! In . ‘ A} y .mvwvfiia f. . < L. in. , {51" 3...? a; .l‘ ,r . .i «in a? 1.2.3. 11.522. .- s 3.1} ‘1", xvsitvtil 3% 13231039. .I\S list. .iIn. \1 Vi}... I1 . l‘ . :5...) a r... QOOq URBARY Michigan State University This is to certify that the dissertation entitled THREE ESSAYS IN ECONOMETRICS presented by PAN UTAT SATC HAC HAI has been accepted towards fulfillment of the requirements for the Ph.D. degree in Economics m swr Major Professor’s Signature your 22, 2009 Date MSU is an Affirmative ActiorVEquaI Opportunity Employer .—.- -.--.- PLACE IN RETURN BOX to remove this checkout from your record. TO AVOID FINES return on or before date due. MAY BE RECALLED with earlier due date if requested. DATE DUE DATE DUE DATE DUE 5/08 K IProj/Accapres/CIRCIDateDue nndd THREE ESSAYS IN ECONOMETRICS By Panutat Satchachai A DISSERTATION Submitted to Michigan State University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILSOPHY Economics 2009 ABSTRACT THREE ESSAYS IN ECONOMETRICS By Panutat Satchachai In the first chapter, we consider GMM estimation when there are more moment conditions than observations. Due to the singularity of the estimated variance matrix of the moment conditions, the quick solution of using the generalized inverse, although temping, is shown to be unfruitful. In the second and third chapters, we consider the problem of point estimation of technical inefficiency in a simple stochastic frontier model with panel data. In the second chapter, we wish to correct the bias of the estimates of technical inefficiency based on fixed effects estimation that previously shown to be biased upward. Previous work has attempted to correct this bias using the bootstrap, but in simulations the bootstrap correct only part of the bias. The usual panel jackknife is based on the assumption that the bias is of order T'1 and is similar to the bootstrap. We show that "2 , not T" , and when there is a tie or a near tie for the best firm, the bias is of order T‘ this calls for a different form of the jackknife. The generalized panel jackknife is quite successfully in removing the bias. However, the resulting estimates have a large variance. In the third chapter, we focus on how we could decrease the variance and MSE of a jackknife-type estimate of the frontier intercept found in the previous chapter. We consider the split-sample jackknife proposed by Dhaene, Jochmans and Thuysbaert (2006), which is simply two times the original estimate based on the whole sample minus the average of the two half-sample estimates, and the “generalized” version proposed by Satchachai and Schmidt (2008), which is relevant in the case of an exact tie or a near tie. Although these estimators also successfully remove the bias, their variance is still large. We also consider whether or not there is an “optimal” split-sample jackknife estimator that has small variance and/or small MSE. For a special case of N = 2 , we derive the “optimal” weights for the original estimate and the half-sample estimates. Although the “optimal” split-sample jackknife has even smaller variance and MSE, it does not properly remove the bias, and it appears that there is not much gain in terms of mean square error from applying the jackknife procedure. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS First and foremost, I would like to thank my advisor, Professor Peter Schmidt. Without his guidance and encouragement, this thesis would have not appeared in its finished form. His teaching approach, research experience and knowledge in economics also help me developing my teaching method as well as training and shaping the direction of my research interests and of this dissertation. His help in editing the dissertation is also gratefully acknowledged. I would also like to thank Assistant Professor Emma Iglesias who was always willing to spend time in clarifying some doubts encountered and gave invaluable feedback during the process of writing this dissertation, and to Professor Timothy Vogelsang for his invaluable comments. I am also grateful for the teaching opportunity given by the Department of Economics through the graduate assistantship. I am also thankful of my undergraduate friends, fellow graduate students and the staff at the Department of Economics who also contributed to the completion of this dissertation through their friendship and help. A special thank you also goes to my friends at the Michigan State University badminton club and the Thai student community at Michigan State University for their warm-hearted friendship. Finally, I am greatly indebted to and thankful of my parents for their support, both financially and mentally. My special thanks also go to my sisters for their love and encouragement and to my grandmother who was always supportive of my decision. I could only wish that she could share this joyfirl moment with me. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES ................................................................................. vii Chapter 1 GMM with More Moment Conditions than Observations ................................. l 1.1 Introduction ............................................................................ 2 1.2 The Model .............................................................................. 2 1.3 TheCaseofn=1 ..................................................................... 4 1.4 The General Case ..................................................................... 5 1.5 Concluding Remarks .................................................................. 7 1.6 Appendix: Proof of Result 1.2 ...................................................... 7 1.7 Appendix: Proof of Result 1.3 ...................................................... 8 Chapter 2 Estimates of Technical Inefficiency in Stochastic Frontier Models with Panel Data: Generalized Panel Jackknife Estimation ....................................................... 13 2.1 Introduction ........................................................................... 13 2.2 Fixed Effects Estimation of the Model ........................................... 15 2.3 Deriving the Order in Probability of the Bias .................................... 18 2.3.1 The Case of No Tie ...................................................... 19 2.3.2 The Case of an Exact Tie ................................................ 20 2.3.3 The Case of a Near Tie ................................................... 21 2.4 Correcting Bias with the Panel Jackknife and the Generalized Panel Jackknife ............................................................................. 23 2.4.1 The Panel Jackknife ...................................................... 23 2.4.2 The Generalized Jackknife .............................................. 25 2.4.3 The Generalized Panel Jackknife When Bias is of Order T "V 2 ....28 2.4.4 What If The Wrong Jackknife Is Used? ......................................... 29 2.5 Design of the Monte Carlo Experiments .......................................... 30 2.6 Results of the Monte Carlo Experiments ......................................... g 35 2.7 Concluding Remarks ................................................................ 39 2.8 Output Tables ........................................................................ 42 2.9 Appendix: Proof of Lemma 2.2 ................................................... 54 2.10 Appendix: Supplementary Tables ................................................. 58 Chapter 3 Estimating Stochastic Frontier Models with Panel Data Using Split-Sample Jackknife ............................................................................................. 94 3.1 Introduction ........................................................................... 94 3.2 The Model ............................................................................ 96 3.3 The Split-Panel Jackknife .......................................................... 97 3.3.1 No Tie ...................................................................... 98 3.3.2 An Exact Tie .............................................................. 98 3.3.3 What If The Wrong Version Is Used? ........................................... 99 3.4 The “Optimal” Split-Panel Jackknife ............................................ 101 3.4.1 Unconstrained “Optimal” Split-Panel Jackknife ................... 103 3.4.2 Constrained “Optimal” Split-Panel Jackknife ...................... 104 3.5 Simulations ......................................................................... 107 3.5.1 Design of Experiments ................................................. 108 3.5.2 Results .................................................................... 110 3.6 Conclusions ......................................................................... 112 3.7 Output Tables ....................................................................... 114 3.8 Appendix: Deriving the Expected Value and Variance of the Max. . . . . 122 3.9 Appendix: The “Optimal” Split-Sample Jackknife ............................ 126 3.9.1 § that minimizes MSE(5£) without constraint ..................... 127 3.9.2 5.7 that minimizes MSE(Ei) subject to a0 + a] +a2 =1 .......... 128 3.9.3 07 that minimizes va.r(b?) subject to a0 + a1 +a2 =1 ............ 128 BIBLIOGRAPHY ................................................................................ 129 vi LIST OF TABLES 2.1 (Experiment I: No Tie) T =10 , Bias of the Estimates .................................. 42 2.2 (Experiment I: No Tie) T =10 , Variance of the Estimates .............................. 43 2.3 (Experiment I: No Tie) T =10 , MSE of the Estimates .................................. 44 2.4 (Experiment 11: Exact Tie) T =10 , Bias of the Estimates .............................. 45 2.5 (Experiment 11: Exact Tie) T =10 , Variance of the Estimates ......................... 46 2.6 (Experiment 11: Exact Tie) T =10 , MSE of the Estimates .............................. 47 2.7 (Experiment III: Near Tie) T =10 , Bias of the Estimates .............................. 48 2.8 (Experiment III: Near Tie) T =10 , Variance of the Estimates ......................... 49 2.9 (Experiment III: Near Tie) T =10 , MSE of the Estimates .............................. 50 2.10 (Effect of Changing T) p: = 1, N = 20 , Bias of the Estimates ........................ 51 2.11 (Effect of Changing T) ,u: =1, N = 20 , Variance of the Estimates .................. 52 2.12 (Effect of Changing T) p: =1, N = 20 , MSE of the Estimates ........................ 53 2.13 (Experiment I: No Tie) T = S , Bias of the Estimates .................................... 58 2.14 (Experiment I: No Tie) T = 5 , Variance of the Estimates .............................. 59 2.15 (Experiment I: No Tie) T =5, MSE ofthe Estimates....................................60 2.16 (Experiment 11: Exact Tie) T = 5 , Bias of the Estimates ................................ 61 2.17 (Experiment 11: Exact Tie) T = 5 , Variance of the Estimates ........................... 62 2.18 (Experiment 11: Exact Tie) T = 5 , MSE of the Estimates ............................... 63 2.19 (Experiment III: Near Tie) T = 5 , Bias of the Estimates ................................ 64 2.20 (Experiment III: Near Tie) T = 5 , Variance of the Estimates ........................... 65 2.21 (Experiment III: Near Tie) T = 5 , MSE of the Estimates ............................... 66 vii 2.22 (Experiment I: No Tie) T = 20 , Bias of the Estimates .................................. 67 2.23 (Experiment I: No Tie) T = 20 , Variance of the Estimates ............................. 68 2.24 (Experiment I: No Tie) T = 20 , MSE of the Estimates ................................. 69 2.25 (Experiment 11: Exact Tie) T = 20 , Bias of the Estimates .............................. 70 2.26 (Experiment II: Exact Tie) T = 20 , Variance of the Estimates ........................ 71 2.27 (Experiment 11: Exact Tie) T = 20 , MSE of the Estimates .............................. 72 2.28 (Experiment III: Near Tie) T = 20 , Bias of the Estimates .............................. 73 2.29 (Experiment III: Near Tie) T = 20 , Variance of the Estimates ........................ 74 2.30 (Experiment III: Near Tie) T = 20 , MSE of the Estimates .............................. 75 2.31 (Experiment I: No Tie) T = 50 , Bias of the Estimates .................................. 76 2.32 (Experiment I: No Tie) T = 50 , Variance of the Estimates ............................. 77 2.33 (Experiment I: No Tie) T = 50 , MSE of the Estimates ................................. 78 2.34 (Experiment 11: Exact Tie) T = 50 , Bias of the Estimates .............................. 79 2.35 (Experiment 11: Exact Tie) T = 50 , Variance of the Estimates ........................ 80 2.36 (Experiment 11: Exact Tie) T = 50 , MSE of the Estimates .............................. 81 2.37 (Experiment III: Near Tie) T = 50 , Bias of the Estimates .............................. 82 2.38 (Experiment III: Near Tie) T = 50 , Variance of the Estimates ........................ 83 2.39 (Experiment III: Near Tie) T = 50 , MSE of the Estimates .............................. 84 2.40 (Experiment I: No Tie) T = 100 , Bias of the Estimates ................................. 85 2.41 (Experiment I: No Tie) T = 100 , Variance of the Estimates ........................... 86 2.42 (Experiment I: No Tie) T = 100 , MSE of the Estimates ................................ 87 2.43 (Experiment 11: Exact Tie) T = 100 , Bias of the Estimates ............................ 88 2.44 (Experiment 11: Exact Tie) T = 100 , Variance of the Estimates ........................ 89 viii 2.45 (Experiment 11: Exact Tie) T = 100 , MSE of the Estimates ........................... 90 2.46 (Experiment III: Near Tie) T = 100 , Bias of the Estimates ............................ 91 2.47 (Experiment III: Near Tie) T = 100 , Variance of the Estimates ....................... 92 2.48 (Experiment III: Near Tie) T = 100 , MSE of the Estimates ........................... 93 3.1 (Experiment I: No Tie) T =10 , Bias of the Estimates ................................. 114 3.2 (Experiment I: No Tie) T = 10 , Variance of the Estimates ........................... 115 3.3 (Experiment I: No Tie) T = 10 , MSE of the Estimates ................................ 116 3.4 (Experiment 11: Exact Tie) T =10 , Bias of the Estimates ............................ 117 3.5 (Experiment II: Exact Tie) T =10 , Variance of the Estimates ........................ 118 3.6 (Experiment II: Exact Tie) T = 10 , MSE of the Estimates ............................ 119 3.7 Weight Comparisons between Estimators, N = 2 and T =10 ........................ 120 3.8 N = 2 (Restricted), Bias, Variance and MSE of the “Optimal” Split-Sample Jackknife Estimates ........................................................................ 121 ix CHAPTER ONE Satchachai, Panutat and Peter Schmidt, 2008, GMM with More Moment Conditions than Observations, Economics Letters, 99, 252-255. Chapter 1 GMM with More Moment Conditions than Observations 1.1 Introduction In this paper, we consider GMM estimation when there are more moment conditions than observations. This can occur in practice, for example, in dynamic panel data models, as in Han et a1. (2005). It is well known that the optimal weighting matrix for GMM is the inverse of the variance matrix of the moment conditions. However, when there are more moment conditions than observations, the usual estimate of the variance matrix of the moment conditions is singular. In that case it is tempting to use its generalized inverse as the weighting matrix. The point of this paper is to demonstrate that this is not a good idea. When the continuous updating form of GMM is used, the value of the criterion function equals one for all values of the parameter. When the two step GMM estimate is used, the value of the criterion function is less than or equal to one, and again the usefulness of such procedure is doubtful. 1.2 The Model We consider GMM estimation based on the population moment conditions E(g(.v,6’o))=0- (1-1) Here g is a k X] vector of moment conditions, and 90 is the population value of a p - dimensional parameter 6. We assume k 2 p so there are enough moment conditions to identify 60. The data y] ,..., y n are a random sample from a population that satisfies (1.1). In the usual case, n > k , but in this paper we consider cases where n < k . We define the sample moment conditions as 1 n a. =;Zg(y,-,6). (1.2) i=1 Let C = Eg(y,-,6l)g(y,- , 6), , the variance matrix of the population moment conditions. The usual estimate of C is A me) = £2gg. (1.4) The “two step” estimator (92 STEP is the value of 6 that minimizes the criterion function 35mm)=§n(6>'én(é)“§n(6). (1.5) where (9 is some initial (consistent) estimator. When n < k , these estimates do not exist. However, we can replace the inverse C" (6)"1 and C" ((9)4 by the “generalized inverse” C” (t9)+ and C" (60+ , in (1.4) and (1.5) respectively.l For example, Han, Orea and Schmidt (2005) follow this procedure. I If for any m x n matrix H with rank of r , then it is always possible to find matrices R , a m x r matrix, and S , each having a rank of r , such that H = RS . Then the generalized inverse of H , H + , is l. 3 The Case of n =1 Suppose that n =1, so §n(6) = g(y1,6). We note that, if A is a k x k matrix ofrank 1, so that A = :g' , where 4’ is a kxl,then A+ =(§'§)’2A. Result 1.1 (i) QEUE (6) =1 for all 6. (ii) Q35TEP(éstEP) $1- Proort (i) QSUEre)=gm,6>'[g(yr.6)g(y1,6)'1+g' 0(6>]'2 6060' G<6>en =1,;1en (1.10) n =1. The proof of part (ii) is exactly the same as for the case of n = 1. 1.7 Appendix: Proof of Result 1.3 Let [2 = i be the initial estimate. Let xi = (y,- —flek) for i= 1,2 and 1 2 . . .+ 1 .+ X=[xl x2]. LetB=|:32i=1(yi‘#ek)(J’i-#ek)] =(5XX) .Thenthetwo step efficient GMM estimator is I ‘3ka ejcBek O x7=argmin(r—izek)B(r—xiet) = ,u We can rewrite Ii as and we can rewrite (y—fiek) as %Xe2 +(fi—Ii)ek. Hence, Q(fi)=(?-flek) BG-flek) 1 A ~ ' 1 S N = [2X62 +(p—p)ek) B(-2-X82 +(#".U)ek) l.’ a~2r 1...... l~~" =1?er BXez +(p—,u) ekBek +§(,u-,U)ekBXez 701-7!)er Bet = fieeXithX'XflX' e2 +(fi-fi)zeiBe/t +(x‘2-me'2X'Ber 2 r ' BX I =l(26'282)+ -lek'BX82 ekBek -lek' e2 e'zX Bek 4 2 ekBek 2 ekBek =1+l(eitBXez)2 __1_(eitBX92)2 4 ejBek 2 ejBek _1_1(e),(2X(X'X)‘2X'))(e2)2 4 ejcBek _1__1(e;,X(X'X)“ez)2 2 ejcBek <1. We have equality when e},X(X'X)"'e2 = 0. (1.11) Now we show that this occurs when condition (1.8) of Result 1.3 holds. We note that erX=kl(rr—iz> (re—72)]. (1.12) Adding and subtracting 719k and he k , and rewriting, we have yr #3 = 0/1 -?19k)+(71 -fi)ek; y2 -fi = (Y2 —?2ek)+(72 'fi)ek- Now define A = 571 — 72. Then we can rewrite (1.12) as ekX = é—kAfi —1]. (1.13) Lemma 1.1 Define Sij = (y,- —y,-ek )'(yj —yjek) for i,j =1,2. Then 1 2 1 2 s +—kA s -—kA 11 4 12 4 I X X: 1 2 1 2 . s ——kA s +—kA 2| 4 22 4 Proof (Yr-9190,01 —5>rer> =I(y1 —rret)+<'y‘r —iz)etll(yr ~rret>+trr —fi)er] _(y1-?rek)+ _ (J’l-ylek)+ _ 1_ _ _ 1- _ In - 5 (yr - y2 )Jet _ (yr - -2-(y1 - yz )Jek _ 1 ' _ 1 = (yr-yrek)+-2-Aek] (YI'ylek)+'2'Aek] _ ' _ , _ l =(y1—y19k) (Y1 -}’Iek)+ Aek(y1-y1ek)+ZkA2 _ ' _ 1 2 =(y1-yrek) (yr ‘J’lek)+ZkA =5” “Fl-ICAZ 4 similar for the other terms. I: 10 Lemma 1.2 1 2 1 2 s +—kA s ——kA 11 4 12 4 S21 -:11-kA2 S22 +%kA2 1 2 1 2 1 2] = s +—kA s +—kA — s ——kA (H 4 )(22 4 ] ('2 4 2 1 2 = (511322 —S12)+ZkA (S11 +S22 + 2812) det(X'X) = det Using Lemma 1.1 and Lermna 1.2, we obtain 1 2 1 2 s +—kA —s +—kA 1 22 1 12 1 (X X)‘1 =——, 1 1 (1.14) dCt(X X) -S21+—kA2 S“ +—kA2 4 4 Combining (1.12) and (1.14), . _ 1 kA ekX(X X) l=----—.-—IS22 +512 ‘512 ‘5111 2 det(X X) and then r - 1 kA 2 det(X X) 11 1 (kA)2 Lemma 1.3 ejcBek =—* ' [(S22 +312)2 +(S12 +5102]. [det(X X)]2 Proof: 413e,, = 2e;,X(X'X)‘2X'e,c = 2[e;,X(X'X)'I ] [(X'X)‘1 X'ek] 21kA[s+s s s]1kA[s+s s s] = ——r—_ 22 12 ‘12‘11 ——v 22 12' — 12-11 2 det(X X) 2 det(X X) 2 =% (kA) [(322 + 512)2 + ($12 + 5102] det(X X) From (1.15) and Lemma 1.3, we have (eitX(X 20432)2 = (322 “511)2 _ (1.16) ekBek (822 +312)2 +(822 +512)2 . k _ k _ Therefore, If s“ = $22 , or Zj=l(ylj — yr): Zj=1 ( yz j — yz) , then (ta;X(X'X)“e2)2 _ 0 D ejc Bek 12 Chapter 2 Estimates of Technical Inefficiency in Stochastic Frontier Models with Panel Data: Generalized Panel Jackknife Estimation 2.1 Introduction In this chapter we consider the stochastic frontier model with time-invariant technical inefficiency in a panel data setting. This model was first considered by Pitt and Lee (1981), who estimated the model by MLE given a distributional assumption for technical inefficiency. Without such a distributional assumption, Schmidt and Sickles (1984) proposed fixed effects estimation. In this approach, the frontier intercept is estimated as the maximum of the estimated firm-specific intercepts, and a firm’s level of inefficiency is measured by the difference between the frontier intercept and the firm’s intercept. It is well understood that the “max” operation causes the estimated frontier intercept, and therefore the estimated inefficiency levels, to be biased upward. Schmidt and Sickles (1984), Park and Simar (1994) and Kim, Kim and Schmidt (2007) discuss this problem. Hall, Hardle and Simar (1995) show that the bootstrap is asymptotically (as T —> 00 with N fixed) valid in this setting, provided that there is a unique best firm (no tie for the largest population intercept), and Kim, Kim and Schmidt (2007) use the bootstrap to construct a bias-corrected estimate of the frontier intercept (and therefore of inefficiency levels). The bootstrap is used to estimate the bias, which is then subtracted from the original estimate. In their simulations, Kim, Kim and Schmidt (2007) found that 13 the bias correction was partially successful. It removed some but not all of the bias. Often it seemed to remove about half of the bias. In this chapter we consider instead bias corrections based on the jackknife. If the bias of the fixed effects estimate is of order T‘l , the usual delete-one panel jackknife estimator (as in Hahn and Newey (2004)) should remove the bias. However, intuitively we would expect the jackknife bias correction to be similar to the bootstrap bias correction, which was only partially successful. Thus it would seem that the finite- sample relevance of the bias being of order T ‘1 may be questionable. In this chapter we analyze the case of an exact tie for the best firm. In this case the bootstrap is not asymptotically valid. Furthermore, we show that the bias of the fixed T4”, not T‘l. In this case the effects estimate of the frontier intercept is of order usual delete-one panel jackknife does not properly remove the bias. Indeed, we show that it removes (approximately) half of the bias. A different form of the jackknife, which we call the generalized panel jackknife, does remove the bias. In the simulations of Kim, Kim and Schmidt (2007) there was not an exact tie, and an exact tie may also be unlikely in actual data. However, if there is nearly a tie, in the sense that there is substantial uncertainty ex post about which is the best firm, it is not clear whether asymptotics that assume no tie are more relevant than asymptotics that assume an exact tie. In order to further analyze a near tie, we give a specific definition (involving a local pararneterization) of “near tie,” and we show that the bias is again of order T"1/2 , so that the generalized panel jackknife is needed to successfully remove the bias. We then perform simulations to assess the finite-sample relevance of these results. 14 The plan of the chapter is as follows. In Section 2.2, we define some notation and give a brief review of fixed effects estimation of the stochastic frontier model with panel data. In Section 2.3 we show that the bias is of order T—1 / 2 for the case of an exact tie or a “near tie.” Section 2.4 describes the generalized panel jackknife that is appropriate in this circumstance. In Section 2.5 we explain the design of our Monte Carlo experiments, and Section 2.6 gives its results. Finally, Section 2.7 contains our concluding remarks. 2.2 Fixed Effects Estimation of the Model Consider a single-output production function with time-invariant technical inefficiency u ,2 0, There are N firms, indexed by i =1,...,N , over T time periods, indexed by t = 1,...,T. We consider the linear regression model of Schmidt and Sickles (1984): yi, = a + xftfl + vi, — u,-,i=1,...,N;t =1,...,T, (2.1) where yi, is the logarithm of output for firm i at time t; xi, is a vector of K inputs (e.g., in logarithms for Cobb-Douglas production function); ,6 is a K x1 vector of coefficients; and vi, is an i.i.d. idiosyncratic error with mean zero and finite variance. The vi, represent uncontrollable shocks that affect level of output, e.g., luck, weather, or machine performance. The time-invariant technical inefficiency u ,- satisfies u ,- 2 O for all i and ui > 0 for some i. There is no distributional assumption on u,- except that it is one-sided. 15 Defining a,- = a - u,- , we can write (2.1) as a standard panel data model: yit = “i + xirfl + Vit- (2-2) Obviously, a,- s or since ui 2. 0. When a,- (and u ,-) is treating as fixed, (2.2) leads to a fixed effects estimation problem in which neither a distribution for technical inefficiency nor the independence between technical inefficiency and x i, or v,-, (or both) is needed. We assume strict exogeneity of the regressors xi, in the sense that (x,1,...,x,-T) is independent of (vn ,..., ViT )'. There is no restriction on the distribution of v”. To estimate 6 , we use the fixed effects estimate ,6 , which can be estimated as “least squares with dummy variables,” by regressing y i, on xi, and a set of N dummy variables, or as the “within estimator,” by regressing (y), — yi) on (x,-, — ii) . Given the estimate ,6 , the estimates 6, can be recovered as the averages of the firm-specific residuals, i.e., d,- = y,- —f,~',6 where y, = T'lztyi, and 2?,- =T-lztx,-, , or equivalently as the coefficients of the firm-specific dummy variables. The within estimator )6 is consistent as N or T —+ co , and the firm-specific intercepts Li, are consistent as T -—) 00. To estimate a and ui , Schmidt and Sickles (1984) suggested the following estimators: 121° =é-ai, i=1,...,N. (2.3) Park and Simar (1994) show that these estimates are consistent as N -> oo , T —-) oo , and T‘“2 ln(N)—>O. 16 In this chapter, to maintain the connection to the earlier literature on bootstrapping of this model, and also the literature on the jackknife, we will consider asymptotic arguments as. T —-> 00 with N fixed. In this case we can hope only to measure inefficiency relative to the best of the N firms. For ease of presentation, we follow Kim, Kim and Schmidt (2007) and rank the intercepts ai such that a“) S “(2) S S “(111), so that (N) indexes the firm with the largest value of or, among N firms, which we will call the best firm. Similarly, we rank the levels of technical inefficiency u ,- in the opposite order such that u“) 2 ”(2) 2 2 u( N) . Obviously, a“) = a — ”(1') for all i and specifically “(M =a 'uUV)‘ Now we define the relative inefficiency measures u; =u,- —u(N) =a(N) —a,-. (2.4) These are the focus of this chapter since, as T —) 00 with N fixed, 6 is a consistent estimate of am), not a , and ii; are consistent estimates of u; , not u i. Although it is consistent for a( N ) (as T —> 00 with N fixed), it is biased upward for finite T. This is true because (it 2 ti:( N) and E(6(N)) = “(N)' That is, the max operator in (2.3) induces upward bias: the largest 6,- is more likely to contain positive estimation error than negative error. The upward bias in the estimate 6 induces the upward bias in the estimates of relative technical inefficiency. That is, E(&) - a( N) = E(12,-) — u;. Therefore we will simply evaluate the bias of c? as an 17 estimate of “(111); there is no need to separately evaluate the bias of the estimates of relative technical inefficiency. The bias of 6 as an estimate of 6( N) corresponds to what Kim, Kim and Schmidt (2007) call the “first-level bias.” To correct this first-level bias, Kim, Kim and Schmidt (2007) consider a bootstrap bias correction for the fixed effects estimate. They 6 boot evaluate the “second-level bias,” E ( )— 6 , and use it to correct the first-level bias. That is, if the second-level bias equals the first-level bias, we would want to evaluate at — [E(6b"°’ ) — a] = 26 — E(o‘t”00’). (2.5) The feasible version of this is eggs” = 2a — 13‘1 2117:1521”), (2.6) where “b ” represents a single bootstrap replication and “ B ” is the total number of bootstrap replications. In their simulations (see their Table 4), this estimate removes some but not all of the bias in 6 . Often it seems to remove about half of the bias. In this chapter, we will consider the jackknife as a simple alternative to the bootstrap. 2.3 Deriving the Order in Probability of the Bias In this section, we show that the bias of 6 is of order T ‘1 if there is no tie for the best firm; that is, if “(111) is distinct from all the other 6,» However, if there is a tie for the best firm, or if there is a “near tie” (in a sense defined precisely below), the bias is of order T—l/z. I8 For simplicity, we will discuss the simple case of no regressors: yr, =6,- +v,-,,i=1,...,N;t =1,...,T, (2.7) where vi, are i.i.d. with mean zero and variance 02. Thus 6,- = y). The various 6) are independent and JT(6,- — (If) —> N (0, 0'2). However, the inclusion of regressors would not alter our results since the within estimator of 6 is unbiased, and our results really only depend on the vector whose i’h element is s/T(6,~ — 05,-) being normal with mean zero and finite variance matrix. See Hall, Hardle and Simar (1995), Appendix (i), equation (A.l) for this condition, which would still hold with regressors. 2.3.1 The Case of No Tie Suppose first that there is no tie for the best firm. That is, there is a unique firm 6‘ -” I such that 6( N) = 6;. Hall, Hardle and Simar (1995) show the equivalence of (i) there is no tie for the best firm, and (ii) the asymptotic distribution of 6 is normal. More precisely, they show that if there is no tie, P(6 = 6(N)) —> 1 as T —> oo , so that the asymptotic distribution of 6 is the same as the asymptotic distribution of 6( N) , the estimate of 6( N) that would be used if the identity of the best firm was known. Since 6( N) is unbiased, it follows that JT times the bias of 6 must go to zero as T —> 00. Thus we conclude that the bias of 6 is of an order smaller than T‘” 2. We presume that it is of order T—l . 19 2.3.2 The Case of an Exact Tie Suppose now that there is a tie for the best firm (the largest 61,-). Specifically suppose that the first “k ” firms are tied, so that 6( N) = 61 = 62 = = 6k for 2 S k S N . Again the discussion in Hall, Hardle and Simar (1995, Appendix (i)) applies. With a probability that approaches one as T —-> oo , 6 will equal 6,- for some i with 1 s i _<_ k , that is, the estimated best firm will be one of the k truly best firms. Therefore with a probability that approaches one, fi(&_a(N)) = fimaxfli’] -a(}v),&2 -a(N)"°°’&k —a(N)) (2.8) = max{\/T(5t] —a(N)),\/T(62 -a(N))a---afi(ék _a(N))} and therefore JT (6 — 6(N)) —> Z where Z is the maximum of a set of k normals with zero means. For k >1, Z is not normal, and E (Z ) > O. The bias of 6 is therefore, for large T, T—l/2E(Z), which is oforder T'l/z. We can give an explicit expansion for the case of N = k = 2 and the simple model above (with no regressors). We first state the following Lemma. Lemma 2.1 Suppose X] and X2 are i.i.d. N(,u,0'2), i.e., X 2 [1]~N(#} o 02 , X 2 .U 0 0' EImaX(X19X2)-#]=(1/~/;)0'- (2.9) then 20 Proof. Let Y XI 1“ 0'2 0'2 = ~ N , . Z X1 -X2 0 0'2 20'2 So, p=0'2/\/20'20'2 =1/x/2 and E(XllX1>X2)=E(Y|Z>O) = p + (1/ J2)0'/1(0), where 2(-) is the normal hazard function = p + (1/ «(2' waif/7 ), since 4(0) = ¢(0)/(1- mm» = 72/7 = xx +(1/J'r?)o. Hence, E(Xl 1X1 > X2 ) — ,u = (1H; )0' and E[max(Xl,X2)]= (1/2)E(X1 1X1 > X2)+(1/2)E(X2 |X2 > Xr)aby Symmetry = E(X1|X1> X2),sinceXl andX2 arei.i.d. Therefore, bias = E[max(X] ,Xz )] — ,u = (1/ J; )0' . In the present setting, “ X11” and “ X 2 ” are 61 and 62 ; “ ,u ” = 61 = 62 ; the variance “0'2 ”is oz/T ; and the bias of 6 = max(61,62) equals (I/x/gfl-Uza. Clearly, this is proportional to T‘“ 2. 2.3.3 The Case of a Near Tie In the previous sections we saw that the bias of 6 is of order T-1 if there is no tie for the best firm, while it is of order T '1/ 2 if there is an exact tie. It is not clear how relevant either set of results will be in finite samples if there is (in some sense) nearly a 21 tie. Intuitively that will depend on how close we are to a tie, which depends not only on how close the a,- are to each other, but also on T'” 20' , which is the standard deviation of the 6,-. One way to model this is by a “local to tie” parameterization. So, to keep things T-1/2 simple, let N = 2, a] > 62 , and 62 =61 — c for c > O , where c does not depend on T. Then in our simple (no regressors) model, ~/T(61 — 61) —> N (0,02) . Also Jfldz —a2) —> N(0,0'2) and so 61022 -61+T_1/zc)—> N(O,0'2), or «fl—"(62 —61)—> N(—c,0'2). Then filmax(0?ra&2)-a1]= maxtfirér — at Hflo‘zz — a] )1 (2.10) —> Z, where “ Z ” is the max of a N (0, 02) random variable and a N (-c,0'2) random variable. Clearly E(Z) 2 E(N(O,02)) = 0 and the bias of 6 is again (for large T) T'l/2E(Z) , which is oforder T‘l/Z. A similar analysis applies if 62 = 0!] — T'yc where c > 0 and 7 21/2. The value of c matters (as above) when y = 1/ 2 but it does not affect the limit distribution if 7 > 1/ 2 . So the asymptotics for the case of a “near tie” are very similar to those for an exact tie if a tie is near enough. Once again we can give an explicit expression for the case of N = k = 2 and the simple model (no regressors). 22 Lemma 2.2 Let X I and X 2 be independent normals, where X1 ~ N (0,02) and X2 ~ N(,u2,0'2).Then ElmaX(X1 .X2 )1 = [one N5 >24 + «EMMA/510. (2.11) where ,u. = 212/0". Proof See Appendix. To apply this to our model, “X1 ” and “X2 ” are 61 and 62 ; “0'2 ”is az/T; p2 =—T'l/2c;and ,ut =—T—l/2c/T'“20'=—c/0'. So the bias is bias = [ 00 with N fixed) valid if there is no tie for the best firm, and not valid if there is an exact tie. So whether there is a tie, and how close we are to having a tie if there is not an exact tie, is a reasonable issue to focus on. When there is an exact tie, we show that the bias of the fixed effects estimate is of order T’“ 2 rather than T" . Not only is the bootstrap not valid, but the usual panel jackknife, which is based on the assumption that the bias is of order T '1 , also does not work correctly. More specifically, we show that it removes (approximately) half of the bias. A different form of the jackknife, which we call the generalized panel jackknife, is needed to remove the bias of order T‘” 2 . If there is no tie, the bootstrap is valid and the panel jackknife should also be effective in removing bias, since now the bias is of order T" . In this case the 39 generalized panel jackknife will not work correctly, and indeed we show that its bias is the negative of the bias of the fixed effects estimate; it reverses the bias. We also consider the case of a near tie, which we define as the case that the difference between the frontier intercept and the intercept of the second-best firm is 0(T'” 2 ). In this case the bias is again of order T_” 2 and so the generalized panel jackknife should remove it. Our simulations support the finite-sample relevance of these arguments. When there is a tie or a near tie, the generalized panel jackknife removes the bias effectively, whereas the panel jackknife and the bias-corrected bootstrap remove about half of the bias. When there is not a tie, the generalized panel jackknife overcorrects the bias, and the panel jackknife and the bias-corrected bootstrap are much better at removing the bias. The major drawback of the jackknife is that its variance is large. This is true for both versions of the jackknife but the variance is the largest for the generalized panel jackknife. There does not seem to be any good reason to prefer the panel jackknife to the bias-corrected bootstrap, since it has a larger variance and does not do a better job of correcting bias. However, while the generalized panel jackknife is clearly dominated by the bias-corrected bootstrap in terms of MSE, it does do a very good job of removing bias when there is an exact tie or a near tie. Empirically, presumably that corresponds to cases where the identity of the best firm is in substantial doubt. The inability of the generalized panel jackknife to beat the bias-corrected bootstrap in terms of MSE when there is an exact or a near tie is perhaps surprising, since the bootstrap is not valid if there is a tie. However, “not valid” here has a specific meaning, namely that we cannot claim that the distribution of the bootstrap estimate 40 around the original estimate matches the distribution of the original estimate around the true parameter. Apparently the bias-corrected bootstrap is nevertheless a useful point estimate. 41 2.8 Output Tables Table 2.1: (Experiment I: No Tie) T = 10 , Bias of the Estimates 42 . ( 1) “(2) (3) (4) 'u‘ N E(a "a(N)) E(J(Cl)-C¥(N)) E(G(0!)"a(1v)) E(égoé” -a(N)) 10"1 2 0.1671 0.0810 - -0.0099 0.1006 10'1/2 2 0.1391 0.0522 -0.0394 0.0743 1 2 0.0887 0.0230 -0.0463 0.0368 101/2 2 0.0462 0.0125 -0.0230 0.0204 10 2 0.0294 0.0199 0.0100 0.0204 10‘] 10 0.4532 0.2113 -0.0436 0.2669 10'1/2 10 0.3935 0.1556 -0.0951 0.2111 1 10 0.2809 0.0828 -0.1261 0.1218 101/2 10 0.1504 0.0293 -0.0983 0.0439 10 10 0.0577 -0.0034 -0.0678 0.0046 10-1 20 0.5566 0.2724 -0.0271 0.3326 104/2 20 0.4928 0.2093 -0.0895 0.2722 1 20 0.3750 0.1176 -0.1537 0.1767 101/ 2 20 0.2349 0.0563 -0.1321 0.0895 10 20 0.1 136 0.0074 -0.1046 0.0292 10"1 50 0.6699 0.3132 -0.0629 0.3975 10‘1 / 2 50 0.6092 0.2678 -0.0921 0.3433 1 50 0.4973 0.1903 -0.1334 0.2565 101/2 50 0.3556 0.1151 -0.1385 0.1639 10 50 0.2059 0.0379 -0.1391 0.0724 10"1 100 0.7584 0.3627 -0.0544 0.4594 10“” 100 0.6949 0.3127 -0.0901 0.4012 1 100 0.5809 0.2293 -0.1413 0.3086 101/2 100 0.4433 0.1652 -O.128O 0.2182 10 100 0.2950 0.0922 -0.1217 0.1281 — Table 2.2: (Experiment I: No Tie) T = 10 , Variance of the Estimates (1) (2) (3) (4) ,1. N 8 J0?) Ga?) 422’?” 10‘1 2 0._0666 0.1 130 0.2127 0.0805 10"“2 2 0.0696 0.1159 0.2149 0.0839 1 2 0.0803 0.1 183 0.2002 0.0936 101/ 2 2 0.0932 0.1133 0.1582 0.1004 10 2 0.0991 0.1055 0.1189 0.1018 10"1 10 0.0355 0.1440 0.3871 0.0623 104/2 10 0.0382 0.1472 0.3901 0.0662 1 10 0.0483 0.1478 0.3665 0.0764 101/2 10 0.0696 0.1378 0.2836 0.0938 10 10 0.0890 0.1282 0.2106 0.1034 10‘1 20 0.0264 0.1419 0.4089 0.0528 10"“ 2 20 0.0284 0.1467 0.4191 0.0557 1 20 0.0359 0.1534 0.4191 0.0650 101’ 2 20 0.0518 0.1388 0.3197 0.0775 10 20 0.0757 0.1329 0.2613 0.0948 10"1 50 0.0208 0.1500 0.4570 0.0469 10"“ 2 50 0.0215 0.1489 0.4518 0.0476 1 50 0.0254 0.1479 0.4356 0.0527 101/2 50 0.0359 0.1438 0.3896 0.0638 10 50 0.0569 0.1401 0.3257 0.0832 [0‘1 100 0.0191 0.1617 0.5014 0.0466 10‘“2 100 0.0196 0.1556 0.4799 0.0467 1 100 0.0231 0.1587 0.4807 0.0515 101/2 100 0.0317 0.1585 0.4490 0.0626 10 100 0.0440 0.1400 0.3532 0.0716 _ 43 Table 2.3: (Experiment I: No Tie) T = 10 , MSE of the Estimates (1) (2) (3) (4) 11. N & J(c‘v) C(51) 45‘6“ 10-1 2 0.0945 0.1 196 0.2127 0.0906 10-1/ 2 2 0.0890 0.1186 0.2164 0.0894 1 2 0.0882 0.1 188 0.2024 0.0950 101/2 2 0.0953 0.1134 0.1588 0.1008 10 2 0.1000 0.1059 0.1190 0.1022 10-1 10 0.2409 0.1887 0.3891 0.1355 10-1/2 10 0.1931 0.1715 0.3991 0.1107 1 10 0.1272 0.1547 0.3824 0.0912 101/2 10 0.0922 0.1386 0.2932 0.0958 10 10 0.0923 0.1282 0.2152 0.1035 10-1 20 0.3362 0.2162 0.4096 0.1634 10-1/2 20 0.2712 0.1905 0.4271 0.1298 1 20 0.1765 0.1673 0.4427 0.0962 101/ 2 20 0.1070 0.1420 0.3472 0.0855 10 20 0.0886 0.1329 0.2722 0.0956 10-1 50 0.4696 0.2481 0.4610 0.2049 10-1/ 2 50 0.3925 0.2206 0.4603 0.1655 1 50 0.2727 0.1841 0.4534 0.1184 101/2 50 0.1623 0.1571 0.4087 0.0907 10 50 0.0993 0.1415 0.3451 0.0885 10-1 100 0.5942 0.2932 0.5044 0.2576 10-1/2 100 0.5025 0.2534 0.4880 0.2077 1 100 0.3605 0.21 12 0.5006 0.1467 101/2 100 0.2282 0.1858 0.4654 0.1102 10 100 0.1310 0.1485 0.3680 0.0880 44 Table 2.4: (Experiment 11: Exact Tie) T = 10 , Bias of the Estimates (1) (2) (3) (4) lb N 1‘3(62 ‘a(N)) E(J(é)-a'(7v)) E(G(&)-a(1v)) E(ég‘g” _a( N)) ** 2 0.1828 0.0997 0.0120 0.1163 10"1 10 0.4580 0.2165 -0.03 80 0.2724 10-1/2 10 0.4077 0.1693 -0.0820 0.2256 1 10 0.3261 0.1268 -0.0832 0.1678 101/2 10 0.2499 0.1 122 -0.0330 0.1323 10 10 0.2052 0.0817 -0.0424 0.1145 10"1 20 0.5593 0.2696 -0.0357 0.3353 104/2 20 0.5020 0.2158 -0.0859 0.2827 1 20 0.3988 0.1412 -0.1302 0.2006 101, 2 20 0.2938 0.0976 -0.1093 0.1421 10 20 0.2282 0.0954 -0.0446 0.1 194 10'"1 50 0.6707 0.3104 -0.0693 0.3985 104/2 50 0.6134 0.2715 -0.0889 0.3492 1 50 0.5124 0.21 17 -0. 1052 0.2739 101/2 50 0.3926 0.1579 -0.0895 0.2038 10 50 0.2899 0.1237 -0.0514 0.1530 10"1 100 0.7615 0.3702 -0.0422 0.4642 10-1/2 100 0.7023 0.3240 -0.0747 0.4117 1 100 0.5950 0.2523 -0. 1089 0.3271 101/ 2 100 0.4665 0.1843 -0.1 132 0.2434 10 100 0.3382 0.1236 -0. 1026 0.1660 Note: ** value of ,w- is irrelevant when N = 2 and there is an exact tie. 45 Table 2.5: (Experiment 11: Exact Tie) T = 10 , Variance of the Estimates (1) (2) (3) (4) p. N 8 J(&) 0(8) 62°C“ ** 2 0.0658 0.1 107 0.2063 0.0792 10“ 10 0.0346 0.1408 0.3785 0.0607 10'“ 2 10 0.0362 0.141 1 0.3785 0.0626 1 10 0.0424 0.1396 0.3598 0.0682 101/2 10 0.0528 0.1210 0.2729 0.0748 10 10 0.0620 0.1308 0.2785 0.0813 10'1 20 0.0264 0.1449 0.4207 0.0531 10-1/ 2 20 0.0282 0.1464 0.4187 0.0556 ‘ 1 20 0.0351 0.1484 0.4048 0.0640 101/2 20 0.0471 0.1444 0.3596 0.0746 10 20 0.0562 0.1228 0.2694 0.0778 10'1 50 0.0208 0.1495 0.4570 0.0474 10-1/ 2 50 0.0225 0.1554 0.4721 0.0506 1 50 0.0274 0.1554 0.4506 0.0579 101/2 50 0.0369 0.1505 0.4032 0.0685 10 50 0.0497 0.1385 0.331 1 0.0765 10"1 100 0.0192 0.1614 0.5011 0.0471 10-1/2 100 0.0204 0.1594 0.4892 0.0492 1 100 0.0247 0.1606 0.4784 0.0556 101/2 100 0.0313 0.1551 0.4395 0.0620 10 100 0.0430 0.1443 0.3680 0.0715 # Note: ** value of 1a is irrelevant when N = 2 and there is an exact tie. 46 Table 2.6: (Experiment 11: Exact Tie) T = 10 , MSE of the Estimates (1) (2) (3) (4) ,1. N a, J(c‘z) 0(6) 582%” H 2 0.0993 0.1207 0.2065 0.0928 10-1 10 0.2444 0.1877 0.3811 0.1350 10-1/2 10 0.2024 0.1698 0.3852 0.1135 1 10 0.1437 0.1556 0.3667 0.0964 101/2 10 0.1153 0.1336 0.2740 0.0923 10 10 0.1041 0.1379 0.2803 0.0944 10-1 20 0.3392 0.2176 0.4220 0.1655 10-1/2 20 0.2802 0.1929 0.4260 0.1355 1 20 0.1941 0.1683 0.4218 0.1043 101/2 20 0.1334 0.1539 0.3716 0.0948 10 20 0.1083 0.1319 0.2714 0.0920 10-1 50 0.4706 0.2459 0.4618 0.2063 10-1/2 50 0.3987 0.2291 0.4800 0.1726 1 50 0.2900 0.2002 0.4617 0.1340 101/2 50 0.1910 0.1754 0.4112 0.1101 10 50 0.1337 0.1538 0.3337 0.0999 10-1 100 0.5991 0.2984 0.5029 0.2626 10-1/ 2 100 0.5136 0.2644 0.4948 0.2187 1 100 0.3787 0.2243 0.4903 0.1626 101/2 100 0.2489 0.1801 0.4523 0.1212 10 Note: ** value of ,u: is irrelevant when N = 2 and there is an exact tie. 100 0.1573 0.1596 47 0.0991 Table 2.7: (Experiment III: Near Tie) T = 10 , Bias of the Estimates (1) (2) (3) (4) #9 N E(é-a'uvfl E(J(é)-a(1v)) E(G(C2)"a(N)) E(égzv‘” _a(N)) 10'1 2 0.1774 0.0934 0.0049 0.1 107 10"“ 2 2 0.1661 0.0807 -0.0094 0.0994 1 2 0.1361 0.0503 -0.0402 0.0707 101/2 2 0.0792 0.0107 -0.0616 0.0252 10 2 0.0323 0.0003 -0.0334 0.0053 10‘] 10 0.4578 0.2164 -0.0381 0.2724 10-1/ 2 10 0.4067 0.1678 -0.0841 0.2244 1 10 0.3210 0.1207 -0.0904 0.1620 101/2 10 0.2273 0.0861 -0.0627 0.1084 10 10 0.1403 0.0326 -0.0809 0.0560 10"1 20 0.5592 0.2695 -0.0358 0.3353 10—1/2 20 0.5018 0.2158 -0.0857 0.2826 1 20 0.3971 0.1390 -0.1331 0.1986 101/2 20 0.2844 0.0851 -0.1249 0.1314 10 20 0.1906 0.0534 -0.0912 0.0808 10-1 50 0.6707 0.3104 -0.0693 0.3985 10"1 I2 50 0.6133 0.2713 -0.0891 0.3491 1 50 0.5119 0.2112 -0. 1059 0.2754 101/2 50 0.3898 0.1537 -0.0952 0.2004 10 50 0.2755 0.1053 -0.0741 0.1367 ' 10'1 100 0.7615 0.3702 -0.0422 0.4642 10‘“ 2 100 0.7023 0.3240 -0.0748 0.41 17 1 100 0.5950 0.2522 -0.1090 0.3270 101/2 100 0.4659 0.1835 -0.1141 0.2426 10 100 0.3340 0.1190 -0.1075 0.1613 48 Table 2.8: (Experiment III: Near Tie) T = 10 , Variance of the Estimates (I) (2) (3) (4) ,1. N 8 J0?) 6(6) 45%“ 10‘1 2 0.0660 0.1 l 17 0.2092 0.0795 10‘“ 2 2 0.0666 0.1 136 0.2137 0.0804 1 2 0.0696 0.1 193 0.2251 0.0840 101/ 2 2 0.0820 0.1234 0.2086 0.0963 10 2 0.0956 0.1 174 0.1622 0.1030 10‘1 10 0.0347 0.1408 0.3794 0.0607 10'”2 10 0.0363 0.1412 0.3786 0.0626 1 10 0.0426 0.1396 0.3605 0.0683 101/ 2 10 0.0548 0.1250 0.2817 0.0762 10 10 0.0686 0.1243 0.2539 0.0840 10‘1 20 0.0264 0.1449 0.4206 0.0531 104/2 20 0.0282 0.1464 0.4188 0.0556 1 20 0.0351 0.1483 0.4050 0.0639 101/ 2 20 0.0475 0.1468 0.3663 0.0750 10 20 0.0597 0.1277 0.2794 0.0804 10'1 50 0.0208 0.1495 0.4570 0.0474 10‘“ 2 50 0.0225 0.1554 0.4772 0.0506 1 50 0.0274 0.1552 0.4502 0.0578 101/2 50 0.0368 0.1517 0.4075 0.0684 10 50 0.0504 0.1403 0.3369 0.0771 10"1 100 0.0192 0.1612 0.5011 0.0471 10““ 2 100 0.0204 0.1594 0.4893 0.0492 1 100 0.0247 0.1606 0.4784 0.0556 101/2 100 0.0313 0.1548 0.43 84 0.0619 10 100 0.0430 0.1440 0.3674 0.0715 * 49 Table 2.9: (Experiment 11]: Near Tie) T = 10 , MSE of the Estimates (1) (2) (3) (4) 1.. N 6? .102) 0(4) 6:88” 10"1 2 0.0975 0.1204 0.2093 0.0918 10““ 2 2 0.0942 0.1201 0.2138 0.0903 1 2 0.0881 0.1218 0.2267 0.0890 101/2 2 0.0883 0.1235 0.2124 0.0969 10 2 0.0966 0.1174 0.1633 0.1031 10-1 10 0.2442 0.1876 0.3809 0.1349 10‘“2 10 0.2016 0.1694 0.3857 0.1130 1 10 0.1456 0.1542 0.3686 0.0945 . 101/2 10 0.1056 0.1324 0.2856 0.0880 10 10 0.0883 0.1254 0.2605 0.0871 10'1 20 0.3391 0.2175 0.4219 0.1655 10"“ 2 20 0.2800 0.1930 0.4261 0.1354 1 20 0.1928 0.1676 0.4227 0.1034 101/ 2 20 0.1284 0.1540 0.3819 0.0922 10 20 0.0960 0.1305 0.2877 0.0870 10‘1 50 0.4706 0.2459 0.4618 0.2062 10-1/ 2 50 0.3986 0.2290 0.4801 0.1725 1 50 0.2895 0.1998 0.4614 0.1336 101/2 50 0.1887 0.1753 0.4166 0.1085 10 50 0.1263 0.1514 0.3424 0.0958 10'1 100 0.5991 0.2984 0.5029 0.2626 10‘“ 2 100 0.5136 0.2644 0.4949 0.2187 1 100 0.37 86 0.2242 0.4903 0.1626 101/2 100 0.2483 0.1885 0.4514 0.1208 10 100 0.1545 0.1582 0.3789 0.0975 50 Table 2.10: (Effect of Changing T) ,u. =1,N = 20 , Bias of the Estimates Experi .. (1) (2) (3) (4) mm“ T M“ ‘a(N)) E(J(é)-a(1v)) E(G(é)-a(1v)) E(ag‘g” —a(N)) 1 5 0.3842 0.1333 -0.1472 0.2098 10 0.3750 0.1176 -0.1537 0.1767 N0 20 0.3795 0.1417 -0.1023 0.1782 TIE 50 0.3821 0.1380 -0.1085 0.1750 100 0.3764 0.1292 0.1193 0.1659 11 5 0.4032 0.1566 -0.1 191 0.2272 10 0.3988 0.1412 .0.1302 0.2066 EXACT 20 0.3908 0.1407 0.1220 0.1900 TIE 50 0.4037 0.1556 -0.0950 0.1969 100 0.3979 0.1635 -0.0720 0.1877 111 5 0.4012 0.1547 0.1210 0.2252 10 0.3971 0.1390 -0.1331 0.1986 NEAR 20 0.3950 0.1389 .0.1242 0.1885 TIE 50 0.4031 0.1563 0.0930 0.1962 100 0.3973 0.1614 -0.0757 0.1871 51 Table 2.11: (Effect of Chaning T ) ,u. = 1, N = 20 , Variance of the Estimates Experiment T (I) (22 (32 (4) a J(a) 0(a) 5527‘” 1 5 0.0365 0.1208 0.3162 0.0647 10 0.0359 0.1534 0.4191 0.0650 N0 20 0.0365 0.1678 0.4717 0.0669 TIE 50 0.0363 0.2247 0.7607 0.0663 100 0.0378 0.3265 1.0631 0.0702 11 5 0.0334 0.1139 0.3029 0.0593 10 0.0351 0.1484 0.4048 0.0640 EXACT 20 0.0361 0.1867 0.5337 0.0650 TIE 50 0.0384 0.2568 0.7893 0.0714 100 0.0366 0.3046 0.9902 0.0680 111 5 0.0332 0.1137 0.3030 0.0590 10 0.0351 0.1483 0.4050 0.0639 NEAR 20 0.0360 0.1868 0.5343 0.0649 TIE 50 0.0384 0.2542 0.7810 0.0713 100 0.0366 0.3089 1.0055 0.0680 52 Table 2.12: (Effect of Changing T) ,u. = 1, N = 20 , MSE of the Estimates Experiment T (1) (22 (32 (4) 02 J(a) 0(a) 623%” 1 5 0.1841 0.1386 0.3379 0.1087 10 0.1765 0.1673 0.4427 0.0962 N0 20 0.1805 0.1879 0.4822 0.0987 TIE 50 0.1824 0.2637 0.7725 0.0969 100 0.1795 0.3432 1.0773 0.0977 11 5 0.1959 0.1384 0.3171 0.1109 10 0.1941 0.1683 0.4218 0.1043 EXACT 20 0.1935 0.2065 0.5486 0.1011 TIE 50 0.2014 0.2810 0.7989 0.1102 100 0.1949 0.3313 0.9954 0.1033 111 5 0.1942 0.1376 0.3176 0.1097 10 0.1928 0.1676 0.4227 0.1034 NEAR 20 0.1924 0.2061 0.5497 0.1004 TIE 50 0.2009 0.2787 0.7896 0.1098 100 0.1945 0.3349 1.0113 0.1030 53 2.9 Appendix: Proof of Lemma 2.2 Lemma 2.3 Let X] and X 2 be independent bivariate normals with different mean, but [me] [(02 :21] (2.29) E1m3X(X1.X2)1=P(X12X2)°E(X1|X1 >X2)+1"(X2 ZX1)'1‘3(X2|X2 >X1)- identical variance, i.e., Then Proof Let m=max(X1,X2), s=1ifX12X2 and =2ifX22X1,and m=X1ifs=1 and =X21fs=2.Then f(m)=f(m,s=1)+f(m.s=2) =P(s=1)f(m|s=l)+P(s=2)f(m|s=2) and E(m) = [mf(m)dm =P(s=1)E(m|s=l)+P(s=2)E(m|s=2) = P(s =1)E(X1 I X, 2 X2) 4 P(s = 2)E(X2 1 X2 2 X.) = P(Xl 2 X2)E(X] IX] 2 X2) + P(X2 2 X1)E(X2 | X2 2 Xl ). Lemma 2.4 By Lemma 2.3, _ 1 _ E[max(X1,X2)] = $121—$218] + 361% (m #2)] \1 20'2 20':2 \ (fir-#1) _ _1_ _(#2-.U1) +[-————20-2 ] [#2 + (50% ——————202 ]. / Let X1 and X 2 be independent normals, where X I ~ N (0,02) and X 2 ~ N (112,02). Then 54 E1max]=[d> (ff—114+f 4%)] (2.30) where p: :52. 0' Proot. By Lemma 2.3, Without loss of generality, let ,u] = 0 and 14. be some constant such that ,uz = pm (since “0'” is %—, ,uz —,u1—-> OasT —) 00). Then P(X] 2 X2) = P(X] —,1’2 2 0) P[(X1-X2)-(#1-#2) , 0-(#1-#2)] 7202 — 7202 (#1- #2) = 1 — <1) 1- 1—7—1 _ ¢[(#1-#2)]. 20'2 Similarly, P(X2 2 X1) = M]. V202 From the facts about truncated bivariate normal distribution, 2 (#1 #2) E X X >X = +— 0'). ———-— , ( 1| 1 2) #1 if; [ 20 1 E(X2IX2>X1)=#2+ (#2 42—2]. TE" 77 55 0 and ,uz = ,um' (hence Since we assume ,ul if 7012 r x a .62 1_F2\ 17 m + \.II/ [\l/ulL fifi amH \ z 2 ”—5 \W/ M. 2 2 26 (Mr/1c 26. {167 .47. {2.\ .m. {.K + M ._.f w. 8 fl 56 Lemma 2.5 By Lemma 2.4, the bias is proportional to 0' when means are unequal: bias = [4%]... + fi¢(%] - 11.] - 0'. (2.31) bias = E[max(X],X2)]— 112 Elmax 00 with N fixed) and that the bootstrap is valid. In this case the bias of 0? is of order T"1 . The second case is the case of an exact tie, so that there are two or more values of i such that a( N) = 68,-. In this case 02 is not asymptotically normal. The bootstrap is not valid, and Satchachai and Schmidt (2008) show that the bias is of order T '1/2 . 3.3 Split-Sample Jackknife In their simulations, Satchachai and Schmidt (2008) found that the panel jackknife and generalized panel jackknife remove most of the bias, but their variances are large. The “split-sample jackknife” proposed by Dhaene, Jochmans and Thuysbaert (2006) is an attempt to remove bias without such a substantial increase in variance. To describe the split-sample jackknife in a general setting, let the data be indexed by t =1,...,T . Let 19 be the fixed effects estimator based on all T observations; let 19(1) be the “first-half” sample estimator that omits observations from t = T / 2 +1 through T for all cross-section units and uses only the first T / 2 observations, and let 61(2) be the “second-halt” sample estimator that omits observations from t =1 through T/ 2 for all cross-sectional units and uses only the second T/ 2 observations. Then the split-sample jackknife estimator is 881(61): zé—Jz-(ém + 63121) = 261—0501110500). (3.3) 97 3.3.1 No Tie This is the case of a unique best firm. The bias of (9 (i.e., Er ) is of order T‘1 and . . . . c B D -3 we can express 1t 1n the followmg expansmn: E(6) = 6’ + ~77 + -—2 + 0(T ) . The panel T jackknife of Hahn and Newey (2004) is J(é) = T19+(T—1)§1;Zté(,) , (3.4) where 6"“) is the delete-observation-t estimator that omits observation I and uses the other T -1 observations. It is easy to see that, given the bias expansion above, E[J(61)] = 6 + 0(T-2) so that the leading term of the bias expansion has been removed. The split sample jackknife SSJ(19) also removes the leading term of the bias expansion. The motivation is that it might have smaller variance than the panel jackknife, because it uses smaller “weights,” for example, with T = 100 , the panel jackknife multiplies the original estimate by 100 and the mean of the delete-one estimates by 99, while the split sample jackknife multiplies the original estimate by two and the mean of the half-sample estimates by one. 3.3.2 An Exact Tie When there is a tie for the best firm (the largest a1), Satchachai and Schmidt (2008) show that the bias of 6% is, for large T , of order T—l/z. We express it with the following expansion: E (9) = 6 + J?— + 712 + 0(T’3/ 2 J? Schmidt suggested the generalized panel jackknife: ). In this case, Satchachai and 98 77 ~ T—li 1 . 19 2,190). 0(6) = JT-JT—l -«/T—~/T-1 7 (3.5) This is (even more so then the panel jackknife) an aggressively weighted estimator. (For example, with T = 100 the weights in (3.5) are 199.5 and 198.5, versus 100 and 99 for the panel jackknife.) Accordingly its variance is large. For the case of an exact tie, a split sample jackknife can also be used. We propose the f0110wing “generalized split sample jackknifez” ‘5 é——l——-1-(é(1) +0121) (3.6) 72-71 72—12 72 1 The weights used here are «FT—1 = 3.414 and —— = 2.414. It is easy to verify that 72—1 GSSJ((9) = . . B . . these are the correct welghts to remove the leadlng term 37:- from the b1as expans1on, and therefore reduce the bias to order T'l. Again, the motivation is that we hope that the variance of this estimator will be smaller than the variance of 0(9). 3.3.3 What If The Wrong Version Is Used? In this section, we show what happens to the bias of the estimate when the wrong version of the split-sample jackknife is used. 1/2 First we consider the case that the bias is actually of order T’ (there is an exact tie), but we use the split-sample jackknife that is designed to remove bias of order T‘l. 99 Theorem 3.1 If the bias is of order T'l/2 , the split-sample jackknife corrects the bias by 41 .4%. Proof We have E (19) = 61 + i + higher order terms . So, dropping the higher order )7 terms, we calculate E(SSJ((9)) = 2E(é) — #30911) + 912)) B 1 213 =2 0+— —— 26+— 1 11) 11 1121 =6+0.586—2—. 7? Comparing this to the original bias of TBT , we have removed the bias by 41.4%. 1:1 Next we consider the case that the bias is actually of order T ’1 (there is no tie), but we use the generalized split sample jackknife that is designed to remove bias of order T"V2. Theorem 3.2 If the bias is of order T“l , the generalized split-sample jackknife reverses the sign and changes the bias by a factor of 72 . Proof: Suppose E(é) = 6 +-T12+ higher order terms. So, again dropping the higher order terms, 100 E(GSS/(é)) = ——2‘/Z_TE(0) - 21_1 %E(63(') + 1912)) _ 72 B 1 1 23 ——A‘/§_l(6+?) —‘/§_15[26+§1/—2] B =0— 2—. 7'], Now, the bias has a reverse sign and the estimate is overly-corrected by a factor of f2- . C] 3.4 The “Optimal” Split-Sample Jackknife Both intuition and previous simulations indicate that the jackknife may decrease bias but increase variance. Given such a trade-off, we may wish to consider versions of the jackknife that are optimal in the sense that they minimize MSE (or just variance). To keep things simple, we will consider estimators that are similar to the split sample jackknife, in the sense that they are linear combinations of the original estimator and the two half-sample estimators. That is, we consider the estimators of the form 19' = 11019 + 1110(1) + 1120(2). (3.7) Then we seek the “optimal” weights 00,01 and 02. However, instead of focusing only on the weights that correct the bias, we now seek weights that minimize variance or MSE. We can consider estimators that do, or do not, satisfy the following constraint: (10 +al+az =1. (3.8) This is basically the condition for consistency of 61 . Note that if we do not impose this constraint, minimization of the variance of 67 is a silly problem since 00 = a] = 02 = O is the degenerate solution. But it is a well-posed problem to minimize the variance of 5 101 subject to this constraint, or to minimize the MSE of 19 either with or without the constraint. To obtain analytic expressions for 00,01 and a2 , we consider the special case that there are only two firms, i.e., N = 2. Although the number of firms considered is restricted, the number of time periods T is not restricted. We define the following notation I 0=100 01 02] ; (39A) (3) =[é 01') (9(2)); (3.93) E0129 =1®o 91 921'; (3.90) A V00 V01 V02 V(®)EV= V10 V11 V12 . (3.91)) V20 V21 V22 We note that 5 = 0'69 , so that E(g) = 0'8 and var(g) = a'Va. The optimal estimators that we will derive are infeasible in practice, because they depend on (0 and V. Our interest in them is that we want to see how the optimal weights compare to the weights used by the jackknife procedures of the previous Section. Also, we want to see how much better (in terms of variance or MSE) the optimal estimators are. For example, if the optimal estimator is only slightly better than the original estimator, there will be little point in further exploration of split-sample jackknife procedures. We now consider the case of a simplified version of the panel data stochastic frontier model. We assume N = 2 , and we also assume normality and we do not include regressors in the model. So we have 102 YIt ~N a] A 0'2 0 . (3.10) 121 22 0 02 The object of estimation (19 above) is a = max(a1,a2) . Without loss of generality, we take 012 = 0 and a1 = a > 0. Therefore a is what we are trying to estimate, and a/0' is a measure of how close we are to a tie. The expression for G) and V , for this simplified model, are derived in Appendix. Given these expressions, we then seek to minimize either of the following quantities var(fi) = a’Va; (3.11A) 1455(0) = var(0) + 6102(0) = a'Va + a'®®'a - 2000 + 02. (3.1 113) 3.4.1 Unconstrained “Optimal” Split-Sample Jackknife The unconstrained minimization (with respect to a) of var(b?) is trivial, namely, a = 0 , 07 a 0 and var(Ei) = 0. However, the unconstrained minimization of MSE(0?) is not trivial. Proposition 3.1 Unconstrained “Optimal” Split-Sample Jackknife. The estimator 67 = 0'6) that minimizes MSE(5Z) is 0 = a[(V + 00')'10]'é) (3.12) Proof See Appendix. 13 In the case of no tie, the unconstrained “optimal” split-panel jackknife that minimizes MSE is as in (3.12) and is a non-trivial result. In an exact tie case, without 103 loss of generality, we can take a = 0. However, this leads us to the trivial solution where a = 0 (00 = a] = 02 = 0) and there is no-trivial solution. 3.4.2 Constrained “Optimal” Split-Sample Jackknife To maintain the connection with the other versions of j ackknife, we impose the consistency constraint a0 + a] + 02 =1 . It is worth mentioning that with the constraint, the estimate may or may not be first-order biased. For example, (i) in the case of no tie, if 00 = 2 and a1 = 02 = —% , i.e., weights of the split sample jackknife, or (ii) in the case of an exact tie, if 00 = 752/271 and a] = 02 = --A/—.2_1_—A , i.e., weights of the generalized split sample jackknife, then there is no bias of the first-order, in the sense that the leading term in the expansion of the bias has been removed. However, these are the weights that completely remove the first-order bias from the original estimate and are not the choices that minimize variance or MSE. We can rewrite the constraint as a0 =1— 0] — 02 and, in matrix notation, as -—110 a=el+Aa4,wheree1=[l 0 0],,A=[_1 0 I] and a4=[al a2]'. Then we can write var(0) = eiVel + 2a1A' Vel + a1A'VAa1, (3.13A) MSE(0) = eicel + 21151116111 + a1A'CAa. — 2aeim — 2011:1111 + 02, (3.1313) where C = V +®®'. 104 Proposition 3.2 Constrained “Optimal” (Minimum MSE) Split-Sample Jackknife. The estimator 67 that minimizes MSE(£§) subject to the constraint 00 + a] + a2 =1 is 0(min MSE) = 1100 + 1110(1) + 1120(2), where a = VII-2V01-2(®1-a)(®0 —®1) 2V00 + VII-4V01+ 2((90 —@1)2 and a1=02 = Voo-V01+(€‘>0-6¥)(('90-®1)2 (3,14) 2V00 + V” -4V0] + 2(90 - @1) Proof See Appendix. :1 If there is no tie for the best firm, the “optimal” weights (3.14) depend on the true variance matrix V and on a (the difference between the two firms’ means). For the case of an exact tie, we simply take a = 0 and the weights simplify to 0(min MSE) = 1.37670 —0.1887d(1)—0.1880&(2).2 (3.15) Corollafl 3.1 (i) If the bias is of order T'l/2 , the “optimal” split-sample jackknife (3.15) corrects the bias by almost 15%; and (ii) if the bias is of order T-l , the “optimal” split-sample jackknife (3.15) corrects the bias by about 38%. Proof (i) Suppose E (d) = a + £— + higher order terms. Dropping the higher order 77’" terms, 2 The difference between the weights on the half-sample estimates, 0.1887 and 0.1880, is due to the randomness in the Monte Carlo evaluation of V . 105 .. _ i _ B _ B E(0)_1.3767(0+fi] 0.1887[a+A/T/_2] 0.1880(a+m] = a + 0.84391. JT .. . B . . . (11) Suppose E (a) = a + T + higher order terms. Droppmg the h1gher order terms, E(§)=l.3767[a+—2]-0.1887 a+—-B—— —0.l88 a+—-Bi— T T/2 772 = a + 0.62332. T Proposition 3.3 Constrained “Optimal” (Minimum Variance) Split-Sample Jackknife. The estimator 5 that minimizes var(Ei) subject to the constraint 00 + a] + a2 =1 is if (min var) = 0062 + 0162(1) + 0262(2), where V11-2V01 00 = V00 "V01 2V00 +V11-4V01 2V00 + V11-4V01 ' and a] =a2 = (3.16) Proof See Appendix. (:1 Note that the “optimal” weights (3.16) only depend on the true variance matrix V . In the case of an exact tie, i.e., a = 0 , the constrained “optimal” split-sample jackknife simplifies to 0(min var) = 0.50 + 0.25011) + 0.25012). (3.17) 106 Corollafl 3.2 (i) If the bias is of order T’V2 , the bias of the “optimal” split-sample jackknife (3.17) increases by 21%; and (ii) if the bias is of order T"I , the bias of the “optimal” split-sample jackknife (3.17) increases by 50%. Proof (i) Suppose E (o?) = a + -B— + higher order terms . Dropping the higher order )7 terms, 1111.11.11»:0.5[1.%)015[1.%].115[.. [53] =a+1.2071—B—. J? (ii) Suppose E (0?) = a + TB— + higher order terms . Dropping the higher order terms, 2. . B B B E (a (mm var)) — 0.50[a + T] + 025(6! + 372—] + 025(0 + m] =a+1.50—B-. T (:1 As expected, minimizing the variance of the estimator, without regard'to bias, will increase bias. 3.5 Simulations In this section, we investigate the finite sample performance of four estimators: (i) the split-sample jackknife estimate, SS/(é); (ii) the generalized split-sample jackknife, GSSI(0?); (iii) the optimal split-sample jackknife that minimizes the MSE, 5 (min MSE ) ; 107 and (iv) the optimal split-sample jackknife that minimizes the variance, 5 (min var) . In the last two cases, these are the estimators in (3.14) and (3.16) that minimized MSE and variance subject to the restriction 00 + a] + 02 =1 . We also compare the results for these estimators to the original estimator d , the panel jackknife estimator J (6?) , and the generalized panel jackknife G(cir) that were analyzed in Satchachai and Schmidt (2008). 3.5.1 Design of the Experiments We consider the model with no regressors, as in Satchachai and Schmidt (2008). The inclusion of regressors would not change our results much because the coefficients (,6) of the regressors are estimated so much more precisely than the a,- are. Thus, the data generating process is y), =a+v,-, —u,- fori=l,...,NandT=l,...,T (3.13) =m-m The u,- are i.i.d. half-normal: u,- =|U,-| where U,- ~ N(0,0'3); and the vi, ~ N(0,0'3). These distributional assumptions are not used in estimation. They just characterize the data generating process. We employ the parameterization used in Satchachai and Schmidt (2008). Our _ -l/ 2 2 _ 2 parameters are N ,T and ,u: — (0'u )1. / T 0", where (0,, )4 — ((7r—2)/7r)0'u . We use ,u: because of its convenient interpretation. It measures the standard deviation of the a,- in units of the standard deviation of the 07,-. 108 To maintain the connection to Satchachai and Schmidt (2008), we use the same parameter values: we fix 03/T :01 and consider 114 =10_1,10"V2,1,10V2 and 10. Then, for a given value of 114, we can determine (0'3 )4 and 03, i.e., (1) ,1. =10‘I = 0.1: (03). = 0.001; 03 = 0.0028; (2) ,1. = 10“'/2 = 0.3162: (03).. = 0.01; 03 = 0.0275; (3) ,1. =1: (03). = 0.1; 03 = 0.2752; (4) ,1. =101/2 =3.1623: (03). =1; 03 = 2.7519; (5) ,1. =10: (03).. =10; 03 = 27.5194. For the split-sample jackknife and the generalized split-sample jackknife, we set T =10 and consider sample sizes N = 2,10,20,50 and 100. However, for the “optimal” split-sample jackknife, we set N = 2. To calculate the weights 00,01 and 02 , we need values of the parameter a = laa) — 03(1)| for a given 101. These numbers are shown in Table 3.7. We consider two experiments with the setup described above: (1) Experiment I (No Tie). The setup of this experiment is exactly as just described. There are no restrictions on the a). They follow from the draws of the half- normal u,- . (2) Experiment 11 (An Exact Tie). We generate the data as described above. Now 'we (the data generator) know which firm is the best firm and the value of its intercept 109 a( N) = max aj. Then, we randomly select one of the other (N -1) firms and set its j=l,...,N intercept equal to a( N) . Hence, we have created an exact two-way tie for the best firm. For each configuration of {113,N,T}, we perform 1,000 replications. Then we report the bias, variance and MSE for each estimator. The results for 07 , J (0?) , and (1(0) are taken from Satchachai and Schmidt (2008). 3.5.2 Results Table 3.1 gives the bias of the various estimators for Experiment I in which there is no tie. When ,m is small, we are in a sense close to a tie. The generalized jackknife G(0?) and the generalized split-sample jackknife GSSJ(07) are closed to being unbiased. The panel jackknife J (62) removes almost half of the bias and the split-sample jackknife removes about 41% of the bias, as theory predicts (Theorem 3.1). For larger values of ,u. , when we are farther from a tie, the panel jackknife and the split-sample jackknife do a good job of removing bias, while the generalized panel jackknife and the generalized split-sample jackknife overcorrect (reverse the sign of the bias). Again, this is as theory predicts (Theorem 3.2). Table 3.2 gives the variance of the various estimators. As expected, the split- sample jackknife has a smaller variance than the panel jackknife, and the generalized split-sample jackknife has a smaller variance than the generalized panel jackknife. In all cases, the variance is larger than the original fixed effects estimator d . Table 3.3 gives the MSE of the various estimators. The generalized panel jackknife and the generalized split-sample jackknife have large MSEs. The MSE of the 110 split sample jackknife is generally smaller than the MSE of the panel jackknife, but bigger than the MSE of the original fixed effects estimator. However, in some cases (large N and/or small #111) the split sample jackknife is better in terms of MSE than the original fixed effects estimator. Table 3.4, 3.5 and 3.6 give the same results for the case of an exact tie. Generally speaking, the results are similar to those in Table 3.1, 3.2 and 3.3 for #4 =10'1 (a near tie). The generalized panel jackknife and the generalized split sample jackknife do a good job of removing bias. The generalized split sample jackknife is better than the generalized panel jackknife, in terms of variance and MSE, but in most cases its MSE is larger than the MSE of the original fixed effects estimate or of the split sample jackknife. The split sample jackknife is better than the original fixed effects estimator, in terms of bias and MSE, for almost all of those exact-tie cases. Table 3.7 shows the “optimal” weights for the two “optimal” split-sample jackknife estimators, in which MSE and variance are minimized subject to the constraint 00 + a] + 02 =1 . For the estimator that minimizes MSE, for small values of ,u. (and a ), the weight 00 is greater than one, while the weights 0] and 02 are negative. These patterns of the “optimal” split-sample jackknife that minimizes MSE are similar to those of other versions of jackknife. On the other hand, all of the weights of the “optimal” split-sample jackknife that minimizes variance are less than one. Clearly smaller weights are helpful in keeping the variance of the estimator small, and this agrees with the fact that the estimators that use large weights to aggressively remove bias, e.g., the generalized panel jackknife, tend to have large variance. Ill In Table 3.8 we compare the bias, variance and MSE of the “optimal” split- sample jackknife to those of the original fixed effects estimate 6% . Comparisons to the other estimators that we have considered can be made by referring to the entries in Tables 3.1-3.6. First consider 07(min MSE). Its bias is slightly smaller than the bias of the original fixed effects estimator, but its variance is slightly larger. Its MSE is very similar to that of the original estimator. (In fact, in some cases it appears to be slightly larger, which logically cannot be the case. This must be a reflection of numerical inaccuracy, which is small but not small relative to the difference in the MSE of the estimators.) The obvious conclusion is that, while split-sample jackknife methods can be used to remove or reduce bias, they will not be successful in reducing the MSE of the estimate by any meaningful amount. For §(min var) the situation is somewhat different. Its variance is slightly smaller than the variance of the original fixed effects estimator, while its bias and MSE are slightly larger. All of these differences are small. So, again, while split-sample jackknife methods can be used to remove or reduce bias, that objective is not compatible with reduction of variance or MSE. 3.6 Conclusions In this chapter, we have tried to find a jackknife-type estimator of the frontier intercept that has small MSE and/or small variance. We have investigated the performance of the split-sample jackknife estimator and the generalized split-sample jackknife. We also consider the “optimal” split-sample jackknife, which minimizes MSE 112 or variance. In terms of the weights that define the estimators, these estimators are less aggressive in removing bias than the panel jackknife and generalized panel jackknife. When there is no tie for the best firm, we show that the split-sample jackknife is also effective in removing bias of order T ’1 , but has smaller variance and smaller MSE than the panel jackknife. Although the “optimal” split-sample jackknife has even smaller variance and MSE, it does not properly remove the bias, i.e., the estimate is still biased upward. Also it is not a feasible estimator outside the simulation setting. When there is an exact tie, the generalized split-sample jackknife also correctly removes the bias, but again its variance and MSE increase significantly comparing to the original fixed effects estimate. In terms of variance and MSE, it is the worst estimator among the four estimators considered. In this case, the “optimal” split-sample jackknife successfully reduces the variance and MSE. This is not surprising since 6% corresponds to 00 = 1,01 = 02 = 0 and these are not “optimal.” 113 3.7 Output Tables Table 3.1: (Experiment I: No Tie) T = 10 , Bias of the Estimates ,1. I N l 0 l 1(0) 881(0) 0(0) | 0881(0) 10-1 2 0.1671 0.0810 0.0898 0.0099 0.0195 10-1/2 2 0.1391 0.0522 0.0639 0.0394 0.0424 1 2 0.0887 0.0230 0.0274 0.0463 0.0594 101/2 2 0.0462 0.0125 0.0130 0.0230 0.0340 10 2 0.0294 0.0199 0.0172 0.0100 0.0001 10-1 10 0.4532 0.2113 0.2480 0.0436 0.0423 (1)-“2 10 0.3935 0.1556 0.1921 0.0951 0.0927 1 10 0.2809 0.0828 0.1045 0.1261 0.1450 101/2 10 0.1504 0.0293 0.0343 0.0983 0.1300 10 10 0.0577 0.0034 0.0036 0.0678 0.0904 10-1 20 0.5566 0.2724 0.31 18 0.0271 0.0344 (1)-“2 20 0.4928 0.2093 0.2518 -0.0895 0.0890 1 20 0.3750 0.1176 0.1593 0.1537 0.1457 101/2 20 0.2349 0.0563 0.0762 0.1321 -0.1483 10 20 0.1136 0.0074 0.0230 -0.1046 0.1052 10-1 50 0.6699 0.3132 0.3765 0.0629 0.0383 10-1/2 50 0.6092 0.2678 0.3219 0.0921 0.0843 1 50 0.4973 0.1903 0.2352 0.1334 0.1354 101/2 50 0.3556 0.1151 0.1426 0.1385 0.1586 10 50 0.2059 0.0379 0.0574 0.1391 0.1527 10-1 100 0.7584 0.3627 0.4336 0.0544 0.0256 10-1/2 100 0.6949 0.3127 0.3744 0.0901 0.0790 1 100 0.5809 0.2293 0.2805 0.1413 0.1443 101/2 100 0.4433 0.1652 0.1956 -0.1280 0.1548 10 100 0.2950 0.0922 0.1118 0.1217 0.1474 _ 114 Table 3.2: (Experiment I: No Tie) T = 10 , Variance of the Estimates I“ N d J (63') SSJ(é) C(62) GSSJ(&) 10‘1 2 0.0666 0.1 130 0.0932 0.2127 0.1768 104/2 2 0.0696 0.1 159 0.0954 0.2149 0.1764 1 2 0.0803 0.1 183 0.1020 0.2002 0.1698 101/2 2 0.0932 0.1133 0.1059 0.1582 0.1477 10 2 0.0991 0.1055 0.1042 0.1189 0.1209 10‘1 10 0.0355 0.1440 0.0821 0.3871 0.2243 10'”2 10 0.03 82 0.1472 0.0861 ‘ 0.3901 0.2308 1 10 0.0438 0.1478, 0.0969 0.3665 0.2406 101/2 10 0.0696 0.1378 0.1098 0.2836 0.2289 10 10 0.0890 0.1282 0.1 173 0.2106 0.1997 10"1 20 0.0264 0.1419 0.0705 0.4089 0.2090 10'”2 20 0.0284 0.1467 0.0743 0.4191 0.2182 1 20 0.0359 0.1534 0.0860 0.4191 0.2406 101/2 20 0.0518 0.1388 0.0930 0.3297 0.2236 10 20 0.0757 0.1329 0.1043 0.2613 0.1979 10‘1 50 0.0208 0.1500 0.0670 0.4750 0.2107 10‘“2 50 0.0215 0.1489 0.0669 0.4518 0.2078 1 50 0.0254 0.1479 0.0697 0.4356 0.2064 101/2 50 0.0359 0.1438 0.0833 0.3 896 0.2281 10 50 0.0569 0.1401 0.1002 0.3257 0.2321 10'1 100 0.0191 0.1617 0.0643 0.5014 0.2056 10'“2 100 0.0196 0.1556 0.0655 0.4799 0.2085 1 100 0.0231 0.1587 0.0705 0.4807 0.2156 101 / 2 100 0.0317 0.1585 0.0802 0.4490 0.2245 10 100 0.0440 0.1400 0.0913 0.3532 0.2316 115 Table 3.3: (Experiment I: No Tie) T = 10 , MSE of the Estimates 10 ———————.1_—— 100 0.1310 0.1485 116 0.1038 0.3680 pt I N I a? I J ((2) I SSJ(&) I C(62) I GSSJ(&) 10“1 2 0.0945 0.1196 0.1012 0.2128 0.1772 10”“ 2 2 0.0890 0.1 186 0.0995 0.2164 0.1782 1 2 0.0882 0.1188 0.1028 0.2024 0.1733 101/2 2 0.0953 0.1134 0.1061 0.1588 0.1488 10 2 0.1000 0.1059 0.1045 0.1190 0.1209 10‘1 10 0.2409 0.1887 0.1436 0.3891 0.2261 10‘”2 10 0.1931 0.1715 0.1230 0.3991 0.2394 1 10 0.1272 0.1547 0.1078 0.3824 0.2617 101’ 2 10 0.0922 0.1386 0.1110 0.2932 0.2458 10 10 0.0923 0.1282 0.1173 0.2152 0.2078 10'1 20 0.3362 0.2162 0.1677 0.4096 0.2101 10'“2 20 0.2712 0.1905 0.1377 0.4271 0.2261 1 20 0.1765 0.1673 0.1 113 0.4427 0.2618 101/2 20 0.1070 0.1420 0.0988 0.3472 0.2456 10 20 0.0886 0.1329 0.1048 0.2722 0.2090 10'I 50 0.4696 0.2481 0.2088 0.4610 0.2122 10’” 2 50 0.3925 0.2206 0.1705 0.4603 0.2149 1 50 0.2727 0.1841 0.1250 0.4534 0.2247 101/2 50 0.1623 0.1571 0.1037 0.4087 0.2532 10 50 0.0993 0.1415 0.1034 0.3451 0.2554 10" 100 0.5942 0.2932 0.2524 0.5044 0.2062 10‘” 2 100 0.5025 0.2534 0.2056 0.4880 0.2148 1 100 0.3605 0.2112 0.1492 0.5006 0.2364 101’ 2 100 0.2282 0.1858 0.1185 0.4654 0.2485 0.2533 Table 3.4: (Experiment 11: Exact Tie) T = 10 , Bias of the Estimates p: N d J (0?) SSI(0?) G(o}) GSSI(0'2) *" 2 0.1828 0.0997 ' 0.1054 0.0120 -0.0042 10’1 10 0.4580 0.2165 0.2533 -0.03 80 -0.0361 10'1/2 10 0.4077 0.1693 0.2065 -0.0820 -0.0780 1 10 0.3261 0.1268 0.1505 -0.0832 -0.0979 101/2 10 0.2499 0.1 122 0.1 189 -0.0330 -0.0663 10 10 0.2052 0.0847 0.1044 -0.0424 -0.0382 10"1 20 0.5593 0.2696 0.3142 -0.0357 -0.0324 10'“ 2 20 0.5020 0.2158 0.2608 -0.0859 -0.0805 1 20 0.3988 0.1412 0.1771 -0.l302 -0.l363 101/2 20 0.2938 0.0976 0.1212 -0. 1093 -0.1230 10 20 0.2282 0.0954 0.1038 -0.0446 -0.0720 10'1 50 0.6707 0.3104 0.3773 -0.0693 -0.0376 10‘“2 50 0.6134 0.2715 0.3279 -0.0889 -0.0758 1 50 0.5124 0.21 17 0.2548 -0.1052 -0. 1095 101 ’ 2 50 0.3926 0.1579 0.1845 -0.0895 -0. 1097 10 50 0.2899 0.1237 0.1341 -0.0514 -0.0861 10‘] 100 0.7615 0.3702 0.4388 -0.0422 -0.0 l 76 10"” 2 100 0.7023 0.3240 0.3874 -0.0747 -0.0580 1 100 0.5950 0.2523 0.3055 -0.1089 -0. 1040 101’ 2 100 0.4665 0.1843 0.2240 -0.1 132 -0.1190 10 100 0.3382 0.1236 0.1523 -0. 1026 -0.1106 Note: "‘1‘ value of ,w is irrelevant when N = 2 and there is an exact tie. 117 Table 3.5: (Experiment 11: Exact Tie) T = 10 , Variance of the Estimates Note: *** value of ,u. is irrelevant when N = 2 and there is an exact tie. 118 ,1. I N 0 J(0) 881(0) 0(0) 0881(0) '1'" 2 0.0658 0.1107 0.0926 0.2063 0.1767 10-1 10 0.0346 0.1408 0.0798 0.3796 0.2186 10-1/2 10 0.0362 0.1411 0.0809 0.3785 0.2180 1 10 0.0424 0.1396 0.0858 0.3598 0.2180 101/2 10 0.0528 0.1210 0.0896 0.2729 0.2028 10 10 0.0620 0.1308 0.0957 0.2785 0.1982 10-1 20 0.0264 0.1449 0.0702 0.4207 0.2069 111-“ 2 20 0.0282 0.1464 0.0736 0.4187 0.2132 1 20 0.0351 0.1484 0.0850 0.4048 0.2342 101/2 20 0.0471 0.1444 0.0957 0.3596 0.2416 10 20 0.0562 0.1228 0.0958 0.2694 0.2153 10-1 50 0.0208 0.1495 0.0684 0.4570 0.2166 10-1/ 2 50 0.0225 0.1554 0.0723 0.4721 0.2269 1 50 0.0274 0.1554 0.0769 0.4506 0.2292 101/2 50 0.0369 0.1505 0.0870 0.4032 0.2403 10 50 0.0497 0.1385 0.0934 0.331 1 0.2245 10-1 100 0.0192 0.1614 0.0643 0.5011 0.2048 10-1/ 2 100 0.0204 0.1594 0.0656 0.4892 0.2048 1 100 0.0247 0.1606 0.0736 0.4784 0.2220 101/2 100 0.0313 0.1551 0.0814 0.4395 0.2339 10 100 0.0430 0.1443 0.0924 0.3680 0.2410 Table 3.6: (Experiment 11: Exact Tie) T = 10 , MSE of the Estimates ,1. N 0 1(0) 881(0) 0(0) 0881(0) *** 2 0.0993 0.1207 0.1037 0.2065 0.1767 10-1 10 0.2444 0.1877 0.1440 0.3811 0.2199 10-1/2 10 0.2024 0.1698 0.1236 0.3852 0.2241 1 10 0.1487 0.1556 0.1084 0.3667 0.2276 101/2 10 0.1153 0.1336 0.1038 0.2740 0.2072 10 10 0.1041 0.1379 0.1066 0.2803 0.1996 10-1 20 0.3392 0.2176 0.1689 0.4220 0.2079 10-1/2 20 0.2802 0.1929 0.1416 0.4260 0.2197 1 20 0.1941 0.1683 0.1163 0.4218 0.2528 101/2 20 0.1334 0.1539 0.1104 0.3716 0.2567 10 20 0.1083 0.1319 0.1066 0.2714 0.2205 10-1 50 0.4706 0.2459 0.2107 0.4618 0.2180 10-1/2 50 0.3987 0.2291 0.1798 0.4800 0.2327 1 50 0.2900 0.2002 0.1418 0.4617 0.2412 101/2 50 0.1910 0.1754 0.1211 0.4112 0.2523 10 50 0.1337 0.1538 0.1114 0.3337 0.2319 10-1 100 0.5991 0.2984 0.2569 0.5029 0.2051 10-1/2 100 0.5136 0.2644 0.2156 0.4948 0.2082 1 100 0.3787 0.2243 0.1669 0.4903 0.2328 101/ 2 100 0.2489 0.1891 0.1316 0.4523 0.2481 10 100 0.1573 0.1596 0.1155 0.3785 0.2532 * Note: *** value of ,u: is irrelevant when N = 2 and there is an exact tie. 119 Table 3.7: Weight Comparisons between Estimators, N = 2 and T = 10 Panel 3.7.1: Minimizing MSE #5 a 00 a1 02 0 0 1.3767 0.1887 W 10—1 0.0034 1.3737 0.1872 0.1865 10.112 0.0107 1.3671 0.1839 0.1832 1 0.0337 1.3463 0.1735 0.1729 10112 0.1066 1.2811 0.1408 0.1403 10 0.3371 1.0796 0.0400 0.0396 Panel 3.7.2: Minimizing Variance #5 a 00 01 02 0 0 0.5000 0.2500 0.2500 10-1 0.0034 0.5039 0.2483 0.2478 10—1/2 0.0107 0.5039 0.2483 0.2478 1 0.0337 0.5036 0.2484 0.2480 101/ 2 0.1066 0.5004 0.2500 0.2496 10 0.3371 0.4656 0.2674 0.2671 NRE Nate 1" a = NREP Z a(2),repl -a(l),repl] and a(2),repl = max(al,replaa2,repl) - repl=1 Note 2: Recall, “Optimal ”Split-Sample Jacklmife: 000? + 0162(1) + 020(2) Split-Sample Jackknife: SSI(&) = 207 — 0.562(1) — 0.507(2) Generalized Split-Sample Jackknife: 0881(0) = 3.4140 —1.2070(1)—1.2070(2) omcod 0 ~ mmd mcmod .0: 888 :0 mm 82: 05 m .1. 2 5:3 Ego—ohm mm .3. mo 02$, 4...... .082 waned ommfio wmw fl .o 5 TS» EEVM m—mE Gm: 88E 3 60 69m ”gm 651m. I 85 826 $86 $85 :53 $85 386 826 $86 4086 S 2 ooaod G86 wmood $8.0 mmaod aomod mmmod mmaod moved 3 m \ _o_ w Sod 2.36 Na _.o 0286 .4306 good wwwod mowed Swod 2 _ good $36 $5 _ .o wwwod $36 2 _ fie oawod wooed 3m _ .o 3 m \ To— 33 .o vmcod mmomd Road 336 gm _ .o 336 wooed Eb _ .o 2 .13 $2 3> 85 mmE 00> mam mm: 5» 85 s i =85 58K $012580 0 6 6 3 83.5.3.0 £528.. 8.052-230 1.380.. 2.. .6 mm: E... 85:5 .35 588386 N n 2 "3. es; 02. oz ”:31. ESE 121 3.8 Appendix: Deriving The Expected Value and Variance of The Max Consider a bivariate normal (N = 2) with t =1,...,T ylt ~N a] , 0'2 O . (3.19) y2t a2 0 02 Suppose that a] = a > 0 and a2 = 0. Without loss of generality, we can assume T = 2. All that we are interested in is, for each variable, the overall sample mean and the two half—sample means. So, for each variable, we have effectively two observations (the two half-sample means) and their mean value (since the overall sample mean is indeed the average of the half-sample means). We are interested in three estimators: y11+y12 — =y21+y22. (1)&=max(rl,r2),where71= and y2 2 , (2) 02“) = max(y11sy21) ; and (3) 63(2) = maXO’IZaJ’ZZ)- With an approach similar to Satchachai and Schmidt (2008), we can derive the first and second moment of these three estimators: E(&) = E[maX(?1J2)] _____ _____ (3.20) = P(y12y2)-E(y1|y12y2)+P(Y2 Zyfl'EUz |y2 2y” and, for t=1,2 , 1202(1)) = E(&(2)) = ElmaXO’Inyth (321) = P(yu Z y2:)°E(ylz lyu 2 yzz) + P(th 2 y1:)-E(y2: | hr 2 Mr)- 122 From basic probability theory, P012 J72) = ”571-72 2 0) =P((J71-a)-(J72 *0) 2 _(a-0)) 0' =1-¢(-%) . we). Similarly, P92 2 ?1)= 12 - [Etmaxowzt >112. With a similar approach to the one used above, we can also derive E[maX(?1,J72 )12 and Etmaxom, >12: Etmaxowz >12 = P01 2 .v2)-E(712 | r] 2 yz) + 10072 2 71) - 5&3 | 372 2 71) (323A) and E[max(y1,,y2,)]2 = P(J’lt 2 Mt) ' E(J’lzt U]: 2 Ya) + 2 (3.23B) P(J’zz Z Yul ' E(y2t U2: 2 J41)- From the fact about the variance of incidental truncated bivariate normal, . 2 2 var x truncatzon = 0’ l- 6 a ( I ) x( p (y» (324) = E (Jr2 | truncation) -[E (x I truncation)]2, where 5(x) = 2.(x)[/l(x) - x]. So, E (x2 | truncation) = var(x | truncation) + [E (x | truncation)]2 and 124 50120.2 22) = mm In 2 i2)+[E(?Ili1272)]2 0'2 1 2 =— 1——5(—3) + (Hg—263) 2 2 0' 2 0' 2 2 2 =g__2_5(_£)+a2+2.12(_£]+W{_£] 2 4 0 4 0 0' and E(iz2 | 72 254) = VWz U72 271)+[15'7(?2 W2 271)]2 2 \2 =9_1_15(£) + 9.1(9. 2 2 0' 2 0') 2 2 2 \ =§__2_5(£]+0_,12(£_ 2 4 0' 4 0') Then, IEImaonJzn2 = P01 2 mm? I 21 2 22H P02 2 m-Hfi I 22 2 21) =¢(%){%2--9§-6(-%J+a2+9§*2(-%JW(-%)} +¢(-%J{%2-%35I-SJ+§*Z(-%l} Substitute Mx) = T-if—STLS and 6(x) = A(x)[/1(x) — x], and we get 2 E[max(jil , 572 )]2 = 92— + £ch) + 0:043) 0' =%j+a-Ia¢I;I+a¢I2II = “7+0; -E[maX()7|J2)]° and 125 var[maX071Jz)l = E[maX@IJ2)]2 —IEImax112 2 = 5’5- + a - Elmo—1.22)] {animation2 2 = 92—+ E[max(?1a72)] ' {a - Elmaxfifiizflk 2 So, var(c?) = %— + E (a?) - (—bias(6r)) . In a similar manner, the variances of (2(1) and 51(2) are var(dm) = 0'2 + E(d(l))-(—bias(&(l))) and var(é(2)) = = 0'2 + E(&(2)) - (-bias(&(2))) , respectively. 3.9 Appendix: The “Optimal” Split-Sample Jackknife Consider a new estimator c? that is a linear combination of the estimators based on the full sample, C? , and the half samples, 62“) and (2(2) : a” = God + aléa) + @590) , (3.25) where y21+y22 . andiz =--—, A _ _ _ + (1) a = max.whereyI #2522 (2) 02“) = max