Eu... .3? ELF 35. .. ammfimw. H.u . . . z .210! 9.3.. E! i x ,1 3.4.3. era This is to certify that the dissertation entitled Three Essays on Credit Contracts presented by Sung-guan Yun has been accepted towards fulfillment of the requirements for the PhD. degree in Economics If N INK/{UH 4/14/71; Major Professor’s Signature 4% 2 j /2 o 4 51 Date MSU is an Affirmative Action/Equal Opportunity Employer —.-d-.-.-.-.‘ ‘_—.— -.-.-‘-.-.--_-<---A-i— PLACE IN RETURN BOX to remove this checkout from your record. To AVOID FINES return on or before date due. , MAY BE RECALLED with earlier due date if requested. DATE DUE DATE DUE DATE DUE . 2 MARglsg 2m 5108 IUProj/AccaPresIClRCIDateDuejndd THREE ESSAYS ON CREDIT CONTRACTS By Sung-guan Yun A DISSERTATION Submitted to Michigan State University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY Economics 2010 4 _.__ r—_.~._— ABSTRACT THREE ESSAYS ON CREDIT CONTRACTS By Sung-guan Yun This study contains three essays. In the first chapter, we tested the claim that in emerging economies institutional and regulatory constraints deter lenders from moni- toring and disciplining firms by studying the experience of South Korean chaebols and their reform of the late nineties. Building on Holmstrom and Tirole (1997) and Sufi (2007), we argue that when a firm is granted a syndicated loan the lead bank retains a large share of the loan to commit to monitoring the borrower. We find evidence that the institutional arrangements of chaebols - especially the bailout protection offered by the South Korean government - diluted lenders’ incentives to monitor chaebol firms, as reflected by the concentration of syndicated loans. However, after the re- form dismantled the chaebol safety net in the late nineties, banks stepped up their monitoring effort (and toughened lending standards). Although internal governance mechanisms tend to compensate for the lack of creditors’ monitoring, in our data such substitutability appears to be only partial. In the second chapter, I investigated the effects of the protection of creditors’ rights on the structure of syndicated loans, such as the shares of the loan held by the lead arrangers and the loan distribution between the lead arrangers and the participant lenders. I found that the average loan concentration (proxy for the intensity of mon- itoring efforts by the lead arrangers) of the firm, which sets up more provisions for protecting creditor’s rights, is lower and the likelihood of the creditors’ holding col— lateral is smaller. However the extent of the impact of such protection on the loan concentration also depends on the degree of the product market competition the firm faces. For the firms that belong to the highly competitive product markets, I found that the impact of the G index is pronounced and the creditors are less likely to hold collateral, and embed fewer financial covenants when the firms are prone to protect creditors’ rights. In the last chapter, I examine the impact of firms’ asset liquidation value which is proxied by asset liquidity on debt contracting using comprehensive US syndicated loan contracts. I employ various measures of the asset liquidity at the three-digit industry level. The borrower, belonging to a higher asset liquidity industry at the time of loan origination, experiences a lower loan spread. However as the maturity of a loan increases the impact of the asset liquidity declines. Furthermore I found that the loan spreads are affected by the number of lenders because of the concern about coordination failures, and by the possibility of the borrower’s being involved in M&A activities. These results are consistent with incomplete contracting and transaction cost theories of liquidation value and financial structure. To my wife, two daughters, my parents, father-in—law, and mother-in-law for their love and encouragement ACKNOWLEDGMENTS First, I would like to thank my adviser, Dr. Raoul Minetti, for his encourage- ment, suggestion, and guidance. Throughout my doctoral work, I learned invaluable lessons from him by working with him and learning in his classes. The numerous conversations in his office and coffee shops will not be forgotten. I also want to thank Dr. Luis Araujo for his encouragement and teaching. What I learned in his class will remain as my valuable assets, and I enjoyed his lectures. I thank Dr. Susan Chun Zhu and Dr. Kirt C. Butler. They generously accepted to be the committee member. Especially, their encouraging words and ideas helped me to shape my dissertation. I also thank Dr. Duncan Boughton for his encouragement and invaluable help in starting my first chapter. I am very much grateful to my church members in University Reformed Church for their love, prayer, and forgiveness in Christ Jesus. I would like to thank my colleagues in the PhD program for all of their help and support. Especially the conversations with Young-J00 Choi were very enjoyable and stimulating in developing ideas. Last but not least, I would also like to thank my family, including my wife, Hye- sun Choe, my children, Hajin and Jinsun, my parents, father-in—law, and mother-in- law, for their enduring patience and support as I completed this dissertation. This dissertation is dedicated to them. TABLE OF CONTENTS List of Tables .......................................................................................................... viii List of Figures ........................................................................................................... ix 1 Institutions, Bank Monitoring, and the Structure of Credit Con- tracts: Evidence from Korean Chaebols ............................................................................ 1 1.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................... 2 1.2 Prior Literature ......................................................................................................................... 6 1.3 Institutional Background ....................................................................................................... 7 1.4 Theoretical Hypotheses ........................................................................................................... 11 1.4.1 Baseline Hypotheses ................... . ....................................................................................... 11 1.4.2 Other Hypotheses .................................................................................................................. 13 1.5 Data and Measurement ........................................................................................................... 14 1.5.1 Preliminary Observations ................................................................................................. 15 1.5.2 Data Description ................................................................................................................. 15 1.5.3 Measurement .......................................................................................................................... 17 1.5.4 Sample Properties ................................................................................................................. 20 1.6 Empirical Tests and Results ............................................................................................... 22 1.6.1 Chaebols and Syndicate Structure ................................................................................. 22 1.6.2 Chaebols and Foreign Banks ........................................................................................... 25 1.6.3 The Role of the Safety Net .............................................................................................. 27 1.6.4 Internal and External Governance ................................................................................. 30 1.6.5 Monitoring or Diversification? ........................................................................................ 32 1.7 Further Tests ........................................................................................................................... 33 1.7.1 Robustness ............................................................................................................................ 33 1.7.2 Other Loan Characteristics .............................................................................................. 35 1.8 Conclusion ................................................................................................................................ 36 1.9 Bibliography ............................................................................................................................. 83 2 Creditors’ Rights and Loan Structure ............................................................................ 87 2.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................. 88 2.2 Background .............................................................................................................................. 93 2.2.1 Protection of Creditors’ Rights and Structure of Loans ......................................... 93 2.2.2 Product Market Competition and Managerial Incentive ........................................ 96 2.3 Data and Statistics ................................................................................................................ 97 2.4 Empirical Specification and Key Variables ..................................................................... 101 2.5 Results ..................................................................................................................................... 102 2.5.1 Preliminary results ........................................................................................................... 102 2.5.2 Risk-shifting and Loan structure .................................................................................. 105 2.5.3 Asset Substitutions and Loan structure ....................................................................... 107 2.5.4 CEO’s Compensation Structure ...................................................................................... 109 2.5.5 Impact of State’s Laws on Loan Contracts ............................................................... 110 2.5.6 Product Market Competition ........................................................................................ 111 2.6 6 Endogeneity ........................................................................................................................ 113 vi 2.7 Conclusion .............................................................................................................................. 113 2.8 Bibliography ........................................................................................................................... 128 3 The Effects of Asset Liquidity on the Loan Pricing .................................................... 131 3.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................... 132 3.2 Measures of Asset Liquidity .............................................................................................. 133 3.3 Sample Construction, Empirical Specification ............................................................. 134 3.3.1 Sample Construction ........................................................................................................ 134 3.3.2 Empirical Specification and Key Variables ............................................................... 134 3.3.3 Summary Statistics ........................................................................................................... 136 3.4 Empirical Results ................................................................................................................. 138 3.4.1 Main results ........................................................................................................................ 138 3.4.2 Maturity and Uncertainty ................................................................................................ 140 3.4.3 Coordination failure and Pricing .................................................................................... 140 3.5 Discussion and Robust test ............................................................................................... 141 3.6 Conclusion .............................................................................................................................. 143 3.7 Bibliography ........................................................................................................................... 156 vii LIST OF TABLES 1.1 Summary Statistics for Syndicated Loan Deals ............................................... 39 1.2 Summary Statistics for Syndicated Loan Deals by Chaebols ....................... 41 1.3 Chaebols and Syndicated Loan Structure .......................................................... 47 1.4 Chaebols and Syndicated Loan Structure .......................................................... 53 1.5 Chaebols and Foreign Lenders .............................................................................. 55 1.6 Domestic Bank Equity Participation .................................................................. 57 1.7 Intra—Chaebol Effects ................................................................................................. 61 1.8 Internal and External Governance ......................................................................... 63 1.9 Internal and External Governance in Chaebols ............................................... 67 1.10 {Internal and External Governance in Chaebols ............................................. 71 1.11 Robustness Tests ....................................................................................................... 75 1.12 Loan Characteristics and Chaebols ...................................................................... 78 1.13 Appendix : Variables and Sources ........................................................................ 80 2.1 Descriptive Statistics ................................................................................................ 115 2.2 Creditor’s Rights and Loan Structure ................................................................. 117 2.3 Risk-Shifting and Loan Structure ......................................................................... 119 2.4 Asset Substitutions and Loan Structure ............................................................ 121 2.5 CEO compensation and Loan Structure ............................................................. 122 2.6 State Law and Loan Structure .............................................................................. 123 2.7 Market Competition and Loan Structure .......................................................... 124 2.8 Market Competition and Loan Structure (Cont.) ......................................... 126 3.1 Summary Statistics ................................................................................................... 145 3.2 Effects of Asset Liquidity on the Loan Pricing .............................................. 146 3.3 Default Probability and Asset Liquidity ............................................................ 147 3.4 Maturity and the Loan Pricing ............................................................................. 149 3.5 Coordination Failure and the Loan Pricing ...................................................... 151 3.6 Leverage Increasing Activity and the Loan Pricing ..................................... 153 3.7 Takevover and the Loan Pricing ........................................................................ 155 viii LIST OF FIGURES 1 Volume of Syndicated Loans in Korea and Asia—Pacific Countries ............. 38 2 Relationship with the G index and the loan concentration measures ...... 115 CHAPTER 1 Institutions, Bank Monitoring, and the Structure of Credit Contracts: Evidence from Korean Chaebols Abstract It is often claimed that in emerging economies institutional and regulatory con- straints deter lenders from monitoring and disciplining firms. This paper tests this claim studying the experience of South Korean chaebols and their reform of the late nineties. Building on Holmstrom and Tirole (1997) and Sufi (2007), we argue that when a firm is granted a syndicated loan the lead bank retains a large share of the loan to commit to monitoring the borrower. We find evidence that the institutional arrangements of chaebols - especially the bailout protection offered by the South Ko- rean government - diluted lenders’ incentives to monitor chaebol firms, as reflected by the concentration of syndicated loans. However, after the reform dismantled the chaebol safety net in the late nineties, banks stepped up their monitoring effort (and toughened lending standards). Although internal governance mechanisms tend to compensate for the lack of creditors’ monitoring, in our data such substitutability 1 appears to be only partial. 1. 1 Introduction The institutional environment of a country and the performance of its credit market are tied to each other. The quality of laws and policies shapes incentives and con- straints of firms and lenders and, hence, their behavior in credit transactions. One prominent feature of the credit market that institutions allegedly affect is lenders’ monitoring of borrowers. This monitoring activity is a fundamental role of financial intermediaries: by disciplining borrowers, financial intermediaries can channel funds towards efficient projects and mitigate firms’ misbehavior (Diamond, 1984; Holm- strom and Tirole, 1997; Carletti, 2004). The impact that poor institutions have on the discipline exerted by creditors is perceived as an acute problem in emerging economies. For example, to ease the growth of the corporate sector, the governments of emerging economies frequently adopt bailout policies that protect large corporations or business conglomerates from failure. This safety net is blamed for diluting lenders’ incentives to monitor firms (see, e.g., Vives, 2006). In emerging economies, lenders’. monitoring can also be inhibited by lack of good quality information, for example due to poor accounting rules. In turn, lenders’ inadequate monitoring can nurture firms’ inefficiency, such as excessive risk taking. Indeed, scholars and policy-makers maintain that a cost of bailout policies is that they weaken market discipline and distort credit allocation (OECD, 2000).1 The objective of this paper is to shed new light on the impact of institutions on the monitoring role of the credit market in emerging economies. We study the experience of South Korean business conglomerates (chaebols), an ideal testing ground for our 1A broad body of literature investigates the role of financial market development for resource allocation and economic growth (see, e.g., Rajan and Zingales, 1998; Beck, Levine, and Loayza, 2000; Wurgler, 2000; Allen and Gale, 2000). Demirgiic-Kunt and Maksimovic (1998) and Levine (1999) find that strong investor protection and legal enforcement favor economic growth. 2 purposes. Before 1997, the institutional environment in which chaebol firms oper- ated sharply differed from that of non-chaebol ones. Distressed chaebol firms were protected by a safety net consisting of an implicit government bailout policy and a system of cross-debt payment guarantees among chaebol affiliates. Furthermore, chaebol firms had lower accounting transparency than non-chaebol ones. These insti- tutional arrangements allegedly discouraged lenders from monitoring and disciplining chaebol firms (Lim, Haggard, and Kim, 2003; Nam, Kang, and Kim, 1999). Following the economic crisis that hit South Korea between the end 1997 and the beginning of 1998, this institutional environment was subject to a policy shock, the reform en- acted by the South Korean government under the external pressure of the IMF and the World Bank. The government prohibited cross-debt guarantees among chaebol affiliates and abandoned its bailout policy by letting some chaebols go bankrupt. Moreover, it adopted drastic measures to step up the transparency of chaebols, thus making available to lenders more instruments to monitor chaebol firms. We investigate the impact that the institutional arrangements of chaebols and their reform had on banks’ monitoring. There is a consensus in the literature that creditors’ monitoring incentives can be inferred from the design of credit contracts (see, e.g., Sufi, 2007). Building on this premise, we match detailed information on chaebols and their reform with rich contract-level data from the Korean syndicated loan market, as well as borrower specific information. The syndicated loan market is ideally suited to study lenders’ monitoring activity. A syndicated loan is provided by a group of banks to a borrower. In a syndication, a borrower designates a lead arranger(s), who then turns to potential participant lenders for a co-financing of the loan; in return for arranging and managing the loan, the lead arranger(s) receives a fee from the borrowing firm. Through the relationship established with the borrowing firm, the lead arranger is in a privileged position to investigate and monitor it. However, its costly monitoring effort cannot be observed by the other members of the syndicate. 3 Therefore, to ascertain its commitment to monitor and induce other lenders to join the syndication, the lead arranger must retain a large stake in the loan as only by putting its own money at risk it will have an interest in the performance of the borrower (Holmstrom and Tirole, 1997; Sufi, 2007). Thus, the structure of a syndicated loan - meant as the loan share of the lead arranger(s) and the concentration of the loan - offers rich information on creditors’ monitoring incentives.2 The empirical results reveal that, controlling for a variety of firm and contract char- acteristics and for aggregate effects, the concentration of syndicated loans granted to chaebol firms was lower than that of loans granted to non-chaebol ones and that after the chaebol reform the difference in loan concentration narrowed. This is consistent with our null hypothesis that the safety net generated by the government bailout pol- icy and the chaebol cross-debt guarantees as well as the lack of accurate accounting information diluted lenders’ incentive to monitor chaebol firms. When the reform dismantled the safety net and fostered chaebol transparency lenders perceived the need and the possibility to step up their monitoring effort and started to form more concentrated syndicates to provide lead arrangers with monitoring incentives. These results are confirmed when we employ an alternative measure of monitoring intensity, the participation of foreign lenders to the arrangement of syndicated deals. In emerg- ing economies, foreign banks are allegedly tougher monitors than local banks because they can rely on more accurate assessment techniques and are less subject to political pressures (Kroszner, 1998; Giannetti and Ongena, 2008). We then delve deeper into the data to disentangle the channels through which the institutional environment af- fected creditors’ monitoring. First of all, the results are primarily driven by the top five chaebols and only to a lesser degree by smaller, less influential chaebols. Since the “big five” were the chaebols most protected by the bailout policy, this points to a role of the government bailout policy in shaping creditors’ monitoring. Second, we find 2Syndicated loans are a very important source of firm financing in emerging and developed economies. Later in the analysis, we shall provide evidence on this for the Asia-Pacific region. 4 that the larger the equity stake of domestic banks in chaebol firms, the lower lenders’ monitoring and that this effect faded after the reform. This matches the idea that state controlled domestic banks acted as a channel for bailout execution: until the bailout policy was dismantled, their presence in the ranks of shareholders reassured creditors that the government would intervene in the event of borrower distress. In the first part of the empirical analysis, we treat the agency problems that lenders’ monitoring can mitigate as a black box. In the second part, we take a preliminary step towards investigating this issue and examine the interaction between creditors and shareholders. We obtain some evidence that in firms with worse incentives for controlling shareholders - as reflected in a larger gap between control and cash flow rights - creditors’ monitoring was stronger. When the reform improved internal gov- ernance mechanisms and the accountability of controlling shareholders, this effect weakened, and especially so for chaebol firms. The rest of the paper unfolds as follows. In Section 2, we relate the analysis to the prior literature. Section 3 describes the institutional environment. Section 4 outlines testable hypotheses on the impact of chaebol affiliation and reform on the structure of syndicated loans. In Section 5, we provide details on the data. Section 6 presents the core tests and results. In this section, we also argue that our results cannot be rationalized by competing theories on the determinants of syndicate structure (such as the diversification motive theory). In Section 7, we subject the results to a variety of robustness exercises. In this section, we also extend the empirical analysis to evaluate the impact of chaebol institutional arrangements on lending standards, such as the size, maturity and collateralization of syndicated deals. Section 8 concludes. 1 .2 Prior Literature This study relates to two strands of empirical literature. The first strand investigates the determinants of financial contracts. In this strand, the most closely related papers examine lenders’ monitoring incentives in the context of syndicated loans. Employ- ing respectively data on syndicated loans to US. and UK. firms, Sufi (2007) and Bosch and Steffen (2008) find that firms’ informational opaqueness shapes the struc- ture of debt agreements. While insightful for examining such issues, these studies on Anglo—Saxon economies are of limited help for discerning how institutions prevalent in emerging economies, such as government bailout policies, affect monitoring and discipline in the credit market (Vives, 2006; Schneider and Tornell, 2004).3 Another set of studies in this literature explore the impact of laws and institutions on finan- cial contracts. La Porta, Lopez-de—Silanes, Shleifer, and Vishny (1997) demonstrate that countries with better investor protection and legal enforcement have larger and more efficient capital markets. Focusing on equity holdings, La Porta, Lopez-de- Silanes, Shleifer, and Vishny (1998) find that stronger investor protection encourages investors to hold smaller equity positions. Qian and Strahan (2007) document the role of country-level legal factors, especially creditor protection, in shaping credit con- tract terms, such as interest rates and loan maturity. Esty and Megginson (2003) use data on project finance loans and investigate how cross-country differences in creditor rights and legal enforcement affect the structure of syndicates. These studies focus on a set of institutions different from ours. In our country study, in fact, we primarily seek to understand whether, for a given court system and legal framework, the policies of protection of business groups set up by the government (such as bailouts and fa- vorable regulatory treatment) distort financial contracting and creditors’ monitoring. 3Rajan and Zingales (2003) stress the importance of transparency for investors and creditors. La Porta et al. (1998) argue that accounting standards play a critical role in corporate governance by informing investors and rendering contracts more verifiable. Baek, Kang, and Park (2004) find that during the east asian crisis higher disclosure quality was associated with better stock price performance. 6 Furthermore, a country analysis, in conjunction with the natural experiment offered by the chaebol reform of the late nineties, can help mitigate the measurement and endogeneity issues that affect cross-country empirical settings. For example, in such settings it is hard to control for country specific laws that can affect credit market decisions. The second related line of research investigates the performance of business groups in financial markets. Bae, Kang, and Kim (2002) test whether chaebol firms benefit from acquisitions or whether such acquisitions just allow controlling shareholders to increase their wealth by increasing the value of other group members (“tunneling”). Hoshy, Kashyap and Scharfstein (1990) present evidence that the investment of firms affiliated to Japanese business groups (keiretsu) is less sensitive to cash flow than that of stand alone firms. They interpret this as evidence that the monitoring performed by main banks within keiretsu mitigates information problems. Business conglomerates of developing countries are an interesting object of research because governments’ industrial policy guarantees them a special treatment in the event of distress. A target of our paper is to understand the implications that this has for the monitoring role of the credit market. Moreover, while until recently bailouts have been sporadic in developed economies, during the 2008—2009 crisis the governments of the United States and of other developed countries have rescued several business groups. Thus, our study can also yield insights into the consequences that these bailouts will have on the discipline role of the credit market of advanced economies. 1.3 Institutional Background This section describes the institutional arrangements of chaebols that can shape cred- itors’ monitoring incentives and the structure of credit contracts. The Pre—reform Scenario In South Korea, big business groups, chaebols, are owned and controlled by the founder or his family successor, essentially operated as a single firm, and typically aligned with the government (Choi and Cowing, 1999).4 More precisely, the South Korean antitrust regulator, the Korean Fair Trade Commission (KFTC), annually defines chaebol affiliates as those for which “either one person, his relatives, or a company controlled by him own more than 30% of issued shares or substantially affect the management (such as appointing its officers) (Chang, 2003)”. A chaebol comprises many subsidiary firms (typically around 30-50) which operate in different industries under the same name (e.g., Samsung, LG Electronics, Hyundai Motor Co.). Based on the definition of the Korean Fair Trade Commission, the literature agrees in defining “chaebols” the top 30 conglomerates (Youngmo, 1999; Jung, Kim and Kim, 2008; Hwang, Park and Park, 2008). In addition, “chaebols” have frequently been classified into two categories: the “big five” (Tierl henceforth), that is the five chaebols with the largest book asset value, and the smaller chaebols (Tier2 henceforth) (Youngmo, 1999). In fact, as we elaborate below, the government treatment of these two classes of chaebols has been quite different, with the bailout policy primarily protecting the top five chaebols (in line with the “too big to fail doctrine”). Chaebols were created during the military dictatorship of the 19608. In the 19703, they became the key partners of the South Korean government in promoting economic development. The government, a major stockholder in national commercial banks, channelled banks’ credit to chaebol firms to promote strategic sectors (e.g., heavy, chemical, and export—driven industries). Throughout the 19808 and 19903, chaebols further strengthened their role in the Korean economy and expanded their activity into a broad range of industries, from commodities to high tech, from manufacturing 4In 1995, chaebols accounted for about 16% of South Korean GDP, 41% of manufacturing GDP, 5% of employment, 50% of exports, and 14% of total commercial bank loans. The top five chaebols alone accounted for roughly 10% of GDP, over 40% of exports and a third of manufacturing GDP. 8 to the third sector. Two institutional arrangements of chaebols are especially relevant for understand- ing creditors’ monitoring incentives. The first is the safety net that protected them. To shield chaebols from the risk of failure, the Korean government supported them with an implicit bailout policy (Lim, Haggard, and Kim, 2003). When a chaebol was in distress, the government intervened by asking domestic, state-controlled banks to write off bad loans.5 Large chaebol firms in distress received subsidized loans and capital injections through domestic banks during the 1972 debt crisis (see the Au- gust 1972 Emergency Decree), the 1979-1981 restructuring of heavy and chemical industries triggered by the second oil shock, and the 1984-1988 wave of business in- solvencies. Even in the absence of a bailout, chaebol firms could lobby the Bank Supervisory Board (formerly the Financial Supervisory Commission) for a favorable treatment by creditors (Chiu and Job, 2004). The government bailout policy was compounded by the network of cross-debt payment guarantees among chaebol sub— sidiaries, whereby members of a chaebol used their equity to secure the loans granted to other members of the same chaebol. A second key characteristic of chaebols was the lack of reliable accounting information on them. Besides having access to inter- nal capital markets, thanks to the support of the government, chaebol firms could easily obtain bank loans.6 Hence, they did not need to release accurate information to outside investors to attract financing. The interlocked share ownerships and re- lated party transactions among chaebol firms further inhibited lenders’ acquisition of information. 5111 1984, the government let a nonviable chaebol (Kukjae) go bankrupt but this was an isolated episode. 6Shin and Park ( 1999) find that the investment of chaebol firms is significantly affected by the cash flow of other members of their chaebol. The Post-reform Scenario In the second part of 1997 and the first part of 1998, a severe, albeit relatively short, crisis hit South Korea. When the crisis broke out, the South Korean government asked the IMF for an emergency bailout loan. The IMF provided assistance conditional on a reform of the Korean economy and of the chaebols that restored market discipline. A first step of the reform consisted of dismantling the safety net that protected chaebols. In 1997, the government let six chaebols (Hanbo, Sammi, J inro, KIA, Haitai, and New Core) go bankrupt, a sort followed in 1999 by the second biggest chaebol, Dacwoo. Moreover, the biggest chaebol, Hyundai, was split into Hyundai Motor Vehicle Co. and Hyundai group while the sixth largest chaebol, Ssangyong, and several chaebol affiliates engaged in bank-led workout programs. The decision of the government to let some chaebols go bankrupt or undergo massive restructurings was compounded by the introduction of tougher rules for corporate reorganizations. The amendments to Korea’s Commercial Code (sang-bup) introduced in February 1998 established strict time limits for in-court reorganizations and strengthened the power of creditors and the reliance on experts in such reorganizations (OECD, 2000). In conjunction with the lifting of the government bailout policy, the reform also marked the progressive resolution of cross-debt guarantees among chaebol subsidiaries from 1998 to 2000.7 A second pillar of the reform of chaebols was the improvement in their accounting transparency. To foster the ability of investors to monitor them, beginning in fiscal year 1999 the Korean Financial Supervisory Service requested chaebols to report com- bined financial statements of all affiliated firms (kyulhapjaemujepyo system) rather than consolidated financial statements and to follow international accounting prin- ciples, including quarterly reporting.8 Moreover, external auditors and accounting 7The amount of loans with guarantee was 26.9 trillion won in April 1998, 9.8 in April 1999, 4.3 in December 1999, zero in March 2000 (Shin and Chang, 2003). 8A combined financial statement brings together assets, liabilities, net worth, and operating figures of two or more companies affiliated to a chaebol. Unlike consolidated financial statements (that include financial information on subsidiaries only), combined financial statements cover all 10 officers were henceforth to face harsher punishments if they misreported or falsified financial statements.9 1.4 Theoretical Hypotheses In this section, we discuss the theoretical hypotheses. We start with the baseline hypotheses on the impact of chaebol affiliation and chaebol reform on the structure of syndicated loans. 1.4.1 Baseline Hypotheses Scholars and policy-makers conjecture that the (implicit or explicit) safety net of- fered by the government bailout policy and the chaebol cross-debt guarantees diluted lenders’ incentive to monitor and discipline chaebol firms (see, e.g., Vives, 2006; Schneider and Tornell, 2004; Lim, Haggard, and Kim, 2003; Nam, Kang, and Kim, 1999, and references therein). Creditors’ monitoring of chaebols would have been fur- ther deterred by the opaqueness of the accounts and the lack of adequate disclosures (Min, 2007). In turn, according to many analyses, the poor discipline imposed by creditors was one of the causes of the low profitability of chaebol firms during the early 19903. After 1997, the scenario radically changed. The government repeat- edly restrained from bailing out chaebol firms and removed cross-debt guarantees so that henceforth creditors should have had stronger incentives to monitor. In addition, creditors now had better tools to monitor chaebol firms, thanks to the introduction of firms within a chaebol that are de facto under the control of the same shareholders (Chang and Shin, 2007). ‘ 9The chaebol reform carried out in concert with IMF/IBRD was known as the “Five plus Three Principles” (Haggard, Lim, and Kim, 2003). Other objectives of the reform were (1) to reform chaebol financial structures, by reducing debt-equity ratios to 200% by the end of 1999; (2) to establish core competencies of chaebol, for example swapping firms/ factories among them; (3) to increase accountability, through the appointment of outside directors to the management boards of the chaebol and through the strengthening of the rights of minority shareholders; and (4) to prohibit interlocking share holdings among group members. 11 chaebol combined financial statements and more demanding accounting requirements. Building on the theoretical analysis in Holmstrom and Tirole (1997) and the em— pirical analysis in Sufi (2007), we use the concentration of syndicated loans as a proxy for creditors’ monitoring incentives. Holmstrom and Tirole (1997) show that a lender has a stronger incentive to monitor a borrowing firm when it invests more of its own money in the firm and, hence, has more to lose in the event of its default. Applying this intuition, Sufi (2007) examines the impact of firms’ informational transparency on creditors’ monitoring by looking at the structure of syndicated loans (e.g., loan share held by lead arrangers or the concentration of the loan). Using loan concen- tration as a proxy for lenders’ monitoring incentives, we can then state the following hypothesis. Hypothesis 1: The safety net that protected chaebols and the lack of accounting in- formation on them diluted creditors' incentive to monitor chaebol firms. The loans to chaebol affiliated firms were less concentrated than those to non-chaebol firms but after the reform the difference in loan concentration narrowed. As predicted by the “too big to fail doctrine”, the bailout policy of the South Korean government especially protected the top five chaebols, which were viewed as being of systemic importance for the Korean corporate sector (OECD, 2000). Therefore, if the safety net generated by the bailout policy had a role in creditors’ monitoring, less intense monitoring was needed for the “big five” chaebols but the need for monitoring them rose disproportionately after the reform. Hypothesis 2: If the safety net generated by the government bailout policy affected creditors' monitoring, Tierl chaebol firms were granted less concentrated loans than other firms. After the reform the difference in loan concentration narrowed. Although our preferred approach to studying creditors’ monitoring incentives fo- cuses on the syndicate structure, we can complement this approach with a second test 12 that looks at the composition - rather than the structure - of syndicates. Multinational banks operating in emerging economies can allegedly count on better technologies and personnel than local banks for processing “hard” information on borrowers, such as accounting information (Detragiache, Tressel, and Gupta, 2008). Moreover, unlike local banks, foreign ones are less connected with firms’ management and less subject to political pressures, which can make them more independent monitors (Kroszner, 1998; Giannetti and Ongena, 2008). Based on these arguments, we expect that the presence of foreign lead arrangers in a syndicated loan signals more rigorous monitoring. We can thus revisit the predictions on creditors’ monitoring using the presence of foreign lead arrangers rather than the syndicate concentration as a proxy for its intensity. Hypothesis 3: Foreign banks acted as lead arrangers less for chaebol firms than for non-chaebol ones. After the reform their role in arranging loans for the two groups of firms became more similar. 1.4.2 Other Hypotheses We now turn to the channels through which we expect that chaebol institutional arrangements impacted syndicated deals. Faccio, Masulis, and McConnell (2006) argue that when state controlled institutions hold equity positions in distressed firms the government has a stronger incentives to bail them out. Indeed, the domestic banks most exposed to the default of the borrower could pressure the government for a bailout. In addition, the presence of such institutions in the ranks of the firm’s shareholders would ease the execution of a bailout. In fact, when a chaebol firm was on the verge of bankruptcy, the government could bail it out through the domestic banks that were stakeholders of the firm in question (see, e. g., the rescue package in the 1972 Emergency Decree). We then expect that before the reform the presence of domestic banks among chaebol firms’lghareholders reassured creditors that the government would intervene in the event of borrower distress. Therefore, if the safety net generated by the government bailout policy affected creditors’ monitoring, less intense monitoring was needed for these firms, but the need for monitoring such firms rose after the reform. Hypothesis 4: If the safety net generated by the government bailout policy affected creditors' monitoring, chaebol firms in which domestic banks had a larger equity stake were granted less concentrated loans than other firms. After the reform, the gap in loan concentration narrowed. Together with the government bailout policy, the second pillar of the safety net that protected chaebols was the system of cross-debt payment guarantees among chaebol affiliates. This leads to the next hypothesis. Hypothesis 5: If the safety net generated by chaebol cross-debt guarantees affected creditors' monitoring, firms that could count on more support by their chaebols were granted less concentrated loans. After the reform, loan concentration increased relatively more for these firms. We will discuss proxies for the financial protection offered by chaebol cross-debt guarantees later in the analysis. Finally, a last important point is that internal gover- nance controls and creditors’ monitoring can act as substitutes in ameliorating agency problems within firms. We thus expect that firms with weaker internal governance were monitored less intensively by creditors and that the interplay between credi- tors’ monitoring and internal governance controls changed after the reform. We shall elaborate on these issues shortly. 1.5 Data and Measurement This section provides details on the data sources, the measurement of the variables, and the properties of the sample. Before 1(ielving into the data, however, it is useful to form an idea about the Korean syndicated loan market. 1.5.1 Preliminary Observations Figure I plots the total volume of syndicated loans granted in South Korea in each year between 1992 to 2007 (the data are from various issues of the Securities Statistics and Syndicated Loans of the Bank for International Settlements). In the left panel, we compare it with the volume of syndicated loans in the whole Asian Pacific region, in the right panel with the volume of syndicated loans in the single countries of the regibn. The Korean syndicated loan market was very active from 1994 to 1997 (averaging about eight billion US. dollars per year). When the crisis occurred in 1997, the volume of syndicated loans dropped dramatically. After the crisis, the market began to expand again and in 2005 it reached the pre—crisis level. In 2007, the volume of loans experienced a considerable rise (about 70%) relative to the previous year level. As Figure I makes clear, the pattern of activity of the Korean syndicated loan market is similar to that of the other countries of the region, though on a larger scale. 1.5.2 Data Description We draw the data for our empirical analysis from six sources: the Loan Pricing Corpo- ration’s DealScan database compiled by Reuters; the KIS-Line data providing system operated by Korea Investors Service Inc., a major Korean credit rating company; the database on chaebol affiliation of the Korean Fair Trade Commission (KF TC); the analysis of chaebols by Lee (2005); the DART system, an electronic disclosure system run by the Korean Financial Supervision Service; and the Compustat Global Finan- cial Services file. We obtain our sample of syndicated loans from DealScan,10which lDealScan registers loans at the origination. League tables ranking the major providers of loans are used for marketing purposes in the syndicated loans market. Therefore, as also noted by Ivashina (2008), it is in the interest of lenders to report tligse data. contains detailed information on terms, lead arrangers, and participant lenders of the syndicated contracts. The original sample includes 4,692 syndicated loans granted from July 1990 through September 2007 to firms located in Korea. For the 1990-1992 period there are only a small number of loans (16) in the dataset and for some of these loans we lack information on their characteristics. Thus, we drop these observa— tions. After excluding financial firms (SIC codes 60-64) and government agencies (SIC codes 91-99), there remain 2,686 loans. We also exclude deals that do not have lead arrangers, bilateral loans, and loans granted to firms not identified in the KIS—Line dataset. We then use the KIS-Line data bank to match loans with the characteristics of borrowing firms (except for data on firms’ ownership structure which we obtain separately from the staff of KIS—Line). KIS-Line is the largest and most comprehen- sive data bank in Korea in terms of information on firms (including their corporate finance and governance) and business groups. We hand-match the syndicated loans in DealScan with the firm-level data in KIS-Line based on firm names and industry classification codes. A problem we face in this matching procedure is that in the aftermath of the crisis a number of firms went through various kinds of restructur- ing and, in the process, some changed name. DealScan sometimes refers to the old names of' borrowing firms so that we have to trace the history of firms that changed name. For this purpose, we checked history profiles on firms’ websites. Usually, the websites report the date in which a firm changed name and information about when it merged or was split (if it did). To double-check the identification and obtain some missing information, we integrate the websites with the KIS-Line’s firm profile and the DART system, which allows companies to submit disclosures online. The firms for which neither the websites nor KIS-Line’s firm profile or the DART system provide enough information for identification are dropped from the sample. After the whole data cleanup, we are left with 1,626 loans granted to 242 non—financial firms. In order to identify chaebol affiliation, we use the KFTC database and the analysis 16 by Lee (2005). The KF TC database presents the firms affiliated to chaebols from 2001. For the years prior to 2001, we identify chaebol affiliated firms by referring to Lee (2005). Furthermore, for the purposes of this paper, we do not classify the privatized POSCO, KT&G and KT groups as chaebols because, although since 2001 they have been classified as such, their equity ownership is dispersed and no individual person or family controls the conglomerate. As anticipated, in our analysis we classify the top five chaebols for book value of assets as Tierll chaebols and the lower ranked chaebols as Tier2 chaebols. The key reason for this distinction is that the government bailout policy especially protected the “big five” (see, e.g., OECD, 2000). Thus, we expect that the effect of the bailout policy on the structure of credit contracts was especially strong for firms affiliated to these chaebols. In the robustness analysis, we also employ lender specific variables. For the data on domestic banks, we rely on KIS-Line (with the exception of the Korean Development Bank for which we resort to Compustat files because KIS—Line does not provide information for the early 19903). For the data on foreign banks, we instead resort to the Compustat Global Financial Services file. 1 .5.3 Measurement A critical step in the empirical analysis is the identification of the lead arrangers of the syndicated loans. We use two approaches. The first is borrowed from Ivashina (2009) who, following in turn the Standard & Poor’s definition, identifies lenders using the titles in a syndicated loan. The administrative agent is defined as the lead arranger. If the syndication does not have an administrative agent, the lender(s) acting as book runner, lead arranger, lead bank, lead manager, agent, or arranger is (are) defined as the lead arranger(s). The second approach relies on Sufi (2007). DealScan’s custom report feature lists two lender categories under the headings of “Lenders-Lead Arranger” and “Lenders—All Lenders”. Following Sufi (2007), we thus treat lenders 17 as lead arrangers if they are classified under the heading of “Lenders-Lead Arranger” and as participants if they are classified under the heading of “Lenders-All Lenders” but not under the heading of “Lenders-Lead Arranger”. In this paper, we mainly rely on the approach of Ivashina (2009) while we use the categorization of Sufi (2007) as a robustness check. The results obtained with the two measures are virtually identical. To measure the concentration of a loan, we construct two variables: the percentage share of the loan held by the lead arranger(s) (hereafter, also lead share); and the Herfindahl-Hirschmann index (herfindahl), calculated using the shares of the loan of the syndicate members. The Herfindahl index is computed as the sum of the squared individual shares of the loan and ranges from zero to 10,000, with 10,000 being its value when a lender retains 100% of the loan. In our sample, the correlation between the two measures of concentration is 0.9665. In some tests, we also experiment with the number of lead arrangers and the number of participant lenders as further (less precise) proxies for loan concentration. The dummy variables chaebol, Tier] chaebol and Tier2 chaebol take on the value of one when a firm belongs to a chaebol, a Tierl chaebol, and a Tier2 chaebol respectively, and zero otherwise. To capture the effect of the chaebol reform, we construct a binary variable, reform, which takes on the value of one if the loan was originated after 1997 and zero if it was originated prior to 1998. Scholars and policy-makers agree in identifying 1998 as the year in which the government laid out and implemented the key steps of the reform (see, e.g., OECD, 2000, or Krueger and Y00, 2002). However, the reader could remain concerned that some aspects of the reform were carried out in stages between 1998 and 2000 and that the change in the institutional environment could have had lagged effects on lenders’ behavior. For this reason, in the robustness section we also report results obtained allowing for a transition between the pre-reform and the post-reform period. The variable foreign arranger is a dummy taking on the value of one if at least one of the lead arrangers of the loan is foreign, and zero otherwise. In constructing this 18 variable we have to account for the fact that some foreign banks (e. g., SC First Bank and Korea Exchange Bank) had Operated as domestic banks before being acquired by foreigners. We classify suCh banks as (domestic because their management - and, allegedly, their practices - did not change significantly after the transfer of ownership. The variable domestic bank equity measures the percentage of equity held by domestic banks in the firm. Chaebol leverage is instead the ratio of the total sum of liabilities to the total sum of assets of a chaebol affiliates. Turning to firm specific characteristics, the literature has identified three main determinants of creditors’ monitoring. The first is the amount of public information available on the firm. The larger the amount of public information, the lower the need for lenders to monitor the business. Following prior studies (e.g., Petersen and Rajan, 1994), we use two proxies for the informational transparency of a firm, its age and its size. Old firms have a better established track record so that more information regarding them is publicly available; large firms receive more attention by analysts and the financial press. We compute the age of a firm as the number of days from its inception to the loan origination date. We use various measures of firm size. We experiment with the total assets and gross sales of the firm (both expressed in trillions of South Korean won) and with the number of employees in the year in which the loan starts. The results are uniform across the three measures and, henceforth, we concentrate on total assets. The literature also underscores the importance of the ex-ante quality and riskiness of a firm in determining lenders’ monitoring: the lower the quality and the higher the riskiness, the more intense monitoring needs to be. We measure quality with the profitability of the firm, as given by the (net) income/total assets ratio. We instead measure riskiness with the leverage ratio (total liabilities to total assets): leverage is often employed to forecast the probability of default of a firm. Finally, the literature emphasizes that the higher the value of the liquid, pledgeable returns of a firm, the lower the need for creditors to monitor it (Holmstrom 19 and Tirole, 1997). We thus insert the ratio working capital/total assets to capture liquidity, where working capital is computed as the difference between current assets and current liabilities. Moreover, we enlist the ratio tangible assets/total assets to control for asset tangibility. Another important aspect we are interested in capturing in the empirical tests is the ownership structure of a firm. KIS-Line lists the names of firm shareholders, their percentage equity shares, and their relationships to the firm. Based on this information, we construct the two measures proposed by Job (2003), block ownership concentration and control ownership gap. More details on these measures will be provided later in the analysis. We also include one-digit sector dummies to control for industry attributes and year dummies to control for macroeconomic effects. Finally, in the empirical analysis we employ a number of contract specific charac- teristics. These include the size of the loan (expressed in millions of US. dollars), its maturity (expressed in days), as well as whether the loan is secured or not. We also insert dummies for the purpose of the loan.11 1.5.4 Sample Properties Table 1.1 presents sample summary statistics broken down into loan, firm and chaebol characteristics. Our dataset records more loans originated after the reform than before it (1027 versus 591 if we treat 1998 as the first year of the post-reform period). This stems from the differences in the number of years and in the volume of activity of the Korean syndicated loan market between the two periods (as Figure I makes evident). Tierl chaebol firms are the most active borrowers (637 deals) followed by non-chaebol ones (581 deals) and Tier2 chaebol firms (400 deals). These figures reflect the size of the five largest chaebols. The average loan counts about 6.5 lenders, 3.4 lead arrangers 1Possible purposes of a loan are: general corporate purposes/working capital, takeovers and acquisitions, leveraged buyout, debt repayment/ capital expenditure, other. 20 and 3.1 participant lenders. Compared for instance with the US. syndicated loans examined by Sufi (2007) for the 1992-2003 period, the number of lead arrangers is twice as large whereas the number of participant lenders is almost half. For 1,023 loans, we know the shares held by the members of the syndicate. The average share held by the lead arranger(s) is 25.8% and the average value of the Herfindahl index for the loan shares is 3233. The statistics for a firm are computed as the average across the loans granted to the firm. The mean age of a firm is about 22 years and its average number of employees is 3,645. The average total assets amount to 2.5 trillion South Korean won (1.98 billion US. dollars at the end-of-2000 exchange rate). The mean leverage ratio is 0.63, a high figure compared with the mean leverage ratio of 0.34 of the US. firms examined by Sufi (2007). This reflects the large amount of debt accumulated by Korean firms before the crisis (OECD, 2000). Turning to loan characteristics, the most common loan purpose is general corporate purposes / working capital followed by debt repayment / capital expenditure. The average size of a loan is 302 million dollars and the average maturity is about six months (the corresponding figures for the US. loans investigated by Sufi, 2007, are 364 million dollars and about three months). Roughly 22% of the loans are secured. Table 1.2 also investigates differences between chaebol and non-chaebol affiliated firms. Let us first consider the structure of syndicated loans. Tierl chaebol firms have the lowest loan concentration, whether this is measured by the total share kept by the lead arranger(s) or the Herfindahl index. For Tierl and Tier2 chaebol firms loan concentration significantly rises from the pre- to the post-reform period while for non-chaebol firms loan concentration is roughly the same in the two periods (the Wilcoxon test is not significant at meaningful levels). The average number of lenders in syndicated loans to Tierl chaebol firms is 7.6 which is larger than that in loans to Tier2 chaebol or non-chaebol firms (5.6 and 6 respectively). Such a difference is more pronounced before the reform. The number of lead arrangers is the largest 21 for Tierl chaebol firms both on average and in each of the two sub-periods. This is also true for the number of participant lenders, although for Tierl chaebol firms the number of participants exhibits a decline after the reform. All in all, inspection of the unconditional means suggests that loan concentration tends to be lower for chaebol (especially Tierl chaebol) firms than for non-chaebol ones but that the difference narrows after the chaebol reform. Turning to firm characteristics, Tier2 chaebol firms are the oldest and non-chaebol firms are the youngest. Looking at employees and total assets, Tierl chaebol firms are the largest while Tier2 chaebol and non-chaebol firms have similar size. The leverage ratio does not vary much across the three groups but it significantly declines after the reform, especially for Tierl and Tier2 chaebol firms.12 Profitability, proxied by the income to total assets ratio, does not differ between Tierl and Tier2 chaebol firms while on average non-chaebol firms have a negative income after the reform. The ratio of tangible assets to total assets is roughly 0.4 for all groups and remains stable over the sample period.13 1.6 Empirical Tests and Results In this section, we discuss the empirical models and our core findings. We start with the baseline results and then try to disentangle the channels through which chaebols impact the structure of syndicates. 1.6.1 Chaebols and Syndicate Structure The baseline model we estimate is Syndijt = a + 321+ lehaebolj + nghaebolj - Reform + de + Xzfé + Eijt' (1.1) 1After the reform, leverage converged to about 0.60 for all the three groups. 1Looking at loan characterisics, on average the loans to non-chaebol and Tier2 chaebol firms were larger, of longer maturity, and more frequently secured than those to Tierl chaebol firms. 22 The dependent variable is a measure of the structure of syndicated loan 2' granted to firm 3' in year t, such as the total share retained by the lead arranger(s) and the Herfindahl—Hirschmann index for the loan shares. The key right-hand-side vari- ables of interest are chaebol and its interaction term with reform: the coefficients 7] and 72 measure how “chaebol affiliation” and “affiliation after the reform” affect the structure of the loan. In the analysis, we also differentiate between Tierl and Tier2 chaebol firms (replacing chaebol with Tier] chaebol and Tier2 chaebol). In the richest specification, the vector X j of firm-level control variables include (the natural logarithm of) firm total assets, the leverage ratio, the ratio of income to total assets, (the natural log of) firm age, the ratios of tangible assets to total assets and working capital to total assets, and industry dummies. The vector X 2’ of contract-level control variables comprise (the natural logs of ) loan maturity and loan amount, and dummies for the loan purpose and for whether the loan is secured or not. We also insert the time (year) dummies [it to control for macroeconomic conditions that affect all firms. Finally, throughout the analysis, we use robust standard errors clustered at the firm level. As discussed earlier, our main hypothesis is that the safety net generated by the government bailout policy and the chaebol cross-debt guarantees, together with the poor quality information available on chaebols, diluted lenders’ incentives to moni- tor chaebol firms. Under this hypothesis, the impact of chaebol affiliation on loan concentration - as captured by the coefficient 71 - should be negative. As for the coefficient 72 on the interaction term, this reflects the impact that the chaebol reform had on the structure of syndicated loans granted to chaebol firms and, hence, on lead arrangers’ incentive to monitor such firms. We expect 72 to be positive, reflecting a step-up in creditors’ monitoring effort after the safety net was dismantled and the quality of accounting information on chaebols improved. Table 1.3 displays the results of the baseline model. In Panel A regression (1), 23 we use the Herfindahl index as the dependent variable. The estimated coefficient on chaebol is negative while the coefficient on the interaction term is positive, with the coefficients being statistically significant at the 10% and 5% level, respectively. The magnitude of the impact appears to be sizeable: the affiliation to a chaebol reduces the Herfindahl index by 516.9, that is approximately 16% at the sample mean. When we add a battery of firms’ characteristics, as in regressions (2)-(4), and loan attributes (regression (4)) the signs and significance of the coefficients do not change (except in regression (3), in which the coefficient of chaebol becomes marginally insignificant).14 In Panel B, we use the loan share of the lead arrangers as a measure of loan concentra- tion. The results are confirmed: for example, in the most parsimonious specification of regression (5) chaebol affiliation results in a lower loan share of the lead arrangers by approximately 22% at the sample mean. Overall, the estimates support our main hypothesis that the safety net that protected chaebols and the lack of quality in- formation deterred creditors’ monitoring of chaebol firms and that after the reform creditors set up stronger monitoring incentives. The results for firm-level controls are also in line with expectations. In regressions (2) and (3), the negative coefficient on (log)assets indicates that as firm size expands loan concentration declines. This suggests that higher firm transparency, as reflected in a larger business size, requires less intense monitoring and, hence, lower borrowing concentration. The coefficient on leverage is positive and statistically different from zero. As for the coefficient on income to total assets, this is negative and also significant (at the 1% level). These findings are consistent with the conjecture that worse firm financial conditions, as re- flected in a higher leverage and a lower profitability, call for more intense monitoring and higher borrowing concentration. In Panels C and D of Table 1.3, we reestimate the regressions differentiating between Tierl and Tier2 chaebol firms. The estimates reveal that the effect of chaebol affiliation and of the policy reform on loan concen- 1Clearly, in regression (4) including loan characteristics may be the source of an endogeneity problem. 24 tration are pronounced for Tierl ‘chaebol firms. For Tier2 chaebol firms, the impact of chaebol affiliation is instead considerably weaker and seldom significant. However, after the reform the affiliation to a Tier2 chaebol appears to have a positive and statistically significant effect on loan concentration. Panel A in Table 1.4 tabulates the point estimates obtained focusing on the number of lead arrangers. The coefficient 71 in regression (4) turns out positive and signif- icantly distinct from zero at the 5% level of confidence. The sign of 71 reads the same way as in the regressions in Table 1.3. The regressions in Panel C offer some evidence that Tierl chaebol affiliation positively affects the number of lead arrangers. (while Tier2 chaebol affiliation appears to have no impact).15As columns (2)-(3) illus- trate, the coefficient on firm assets is statistically different from zero at the 5% level and suggests that as firm size increases more lead arrangers join the deal. Size also appears to explain most of the variation in the number of participant lenders. The stronger economic and statistical significance of Tierl chaebol affiliation and reform points to a role of the government bailout policy in shaping creditors’ moni- toring incentives. In fact, the bailout policy targeted the “big five” chaebols because of their systemic importance in production and employment (OECD, 2000; Nahm, 2003; Jang, 2001). The finding that the effect for Tier2 chaebol firms is weaker can signal that for smaller chaebols there were lower expectations of bailouts and, hence, lenders’ monitoring was somewhat stronger (and, in turn, the effect of the reform weaker). 1.6.2 Chaebols and Foreign Banks It is often argued that in emerging economies foreign banks are less subject to po- litical pressures and, hence, are tougher monitors than local banks (Kroszner, 1998; 1In an unreported table, we also reestimate the regressions by constraining the coefficients on Tier2 chaebol and non-chaebol firms to be the same (thus, in these estimations Tier2 chaebol and non-chaebol firms are the omitted group). The results carry through. 25 Giannetti and Ongena, 2008). 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E0 23 55383 N03 Brogan .22.». £532 USESV 9E grow on En.< bandwidth = .3 Lowess smoother 0000 _. 88 88 DDS Sam .32.. cmeceisfiucesr =.8 bandwidth 115 Table 2.1 Descriptive Statistics Panel A G index <=5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 >=14 All Number of Loans 347 284 356 406 473 475 386 247 180 162 3316 Panel B Variable Mean STD. 25th 50th 75th 95th Loan characteristics Loan size (5 Million 518 1074 100 250 500 1000 Maturity(days) 1325 728 738 1213 1826 1840 Secured [0,1] 0.44 0.50 0 0 1 1 Tm“ ’lum’m °’ 2.50 1 .10 2 2 3 4 financ1al covenants Net worth covenant 0.43 0.49 0 0 1 1 Loan structure % Held by Lead 22.60 17.00 10.19 17.32 30.00 50.00 Hfmndah’ 1948.6 1671.3 795.0 1357.5 2512.0 4961.8 -H1rschman Firm characbristics G index 9.03 2.72 7 9 1 1 13 E index 2.35 1.32 1 2 3 4 Total_assets (S Billions) 4.60 10.71 0.46 1.29 3.73 12.23 Leverage 0.30 0.21 0.16 0.28 0.40 0.52 EBITDA/Sales 0.17 0.16 0.09 0.14 0.22 0.33 Zscore 1.82 1.22 1.01 1.77 2.57 3.85 Governance CEO equity share(% 2.12 5.50 0.00 0.00 1.20 6.53 Delta (S in '000) 1057.1 5699.0 67.1 192.7 5521 1762.7 Vega (S in '000) 141.7 330.5 6.9 38.2 125.6 345.0 116 Table 2.2 Creditor's Rights and Loan Structure This table reports results from the loan structure regressions that use corporate charter provisions and state-level antitakeover restrictions as proxies for creditor's rights. The dependent variables are the average share held by the lead arranger(sXmax < 100), and a constructed loan concentration using lenders' loan share, Herfindahl-Hirschman index(max <10,000). G index from Gompers et al. (2003) is used as a primary proxy for creditor's rights. Firms are grouped based on the G index into Dictatorship when its G index is larger than 13 and Democracy when it is below 6. "G index minus E index" is the remaining provisions in the G index after excluding the E index in Bebchuk et al.(2009). The explanatory variables include finn-specific and loan-specific variables. ln(total assets) refers to the logarithm of total assets of the firm in millions of USD before the loan initialization. ebitda/total assets is the ratio of EBITDA of the firm to the total assets of the firm. leverage is the total debt (long term plus short term) divided by the total assets of the firm. log(deal amount) refers to the logarithm of the size of the loan. ln(matun'ty) is the logarithm of the days of loan maturity. "Secured" is the binary variable, which is a unit of one when the loan is secured and lead arranger’s reputation is controlled by the binary variable, 'Top 10 leader" having a unit of one when the lead arranger is top 10 ranked in the prior year to the year of loan origination. Standard errors are estimated with clustered errors at the firm level and are reported in parentheses. Regressions also include industry fixed effects(2 digit SIC), year fixed effects, and loan purpose indicators. *, *"‘ indicate the level of significance at 5% and 1%, respectively. Herfindahl % Held by Lead Herfindahl % Held by Lead (1) (2) (3) (4) G index -36.92""" -0.29* (11.85) (0.13) Dictatorship -224.30* -1 .91 (96.07) (1.30) Democracy 65.28 1 .05 (119.32) (1.28) Ln(total assets) 13.24 -1.44** 3.36 -1 .50“I (47.26) (0.49) (47. 13) (0.48) Leverage -317.98* -4.93"‘ -314.32 -4.95"‘ (159.75) (1.91) (162.67) (1.94) Ebitda/Sales -670.13"”" -3.53 -663.85"‘* -3.45 (209.42) (2.36) (213.79) (2.39) Ln(deal size) -728.42“ —6.36" -724.92"“" -6.34** (58.82) (0.60) (58.98) (0.60) Ln(maturity) -238.32" -3.39"‘* -237.42** -3.38*" (61.48) (0.61) (61.81) (0.61) Secured 230.73" 2.00“ 251.41" 2.14" (73.97) (0.79) (75.23) (0.80) Top 10 lender -l64.25"' -l.56"I -160.56* -l.53"‘ (67.00) (0.66) (67.22) (0.66) Intercept 17,816.72" 179.99" 17,457.41" 177.25" (909.33) (9.46) (925.87) (9.52) N 2155 2155 2155 2155 R-sqwed 0.40 0.41 0.40 0.40 117 . Table 2.2 Creditor's Rights and Loan Structure (Cont.) This table reports results from the loan structure regressions that use corporate charter provisions and state-level antitakeover restrictions as proxies for creditor's rights. The dependent variables are the average share held by the lead arranger(sXmax < 100), and a constructed loan concentration using lenders' loan share, Herfindahl-Hirschman index(max <10,000). G index from Gompers et a1. (2003) is used as a primary proxy for creditor's rights. Firms are grouped based on the G index into Dictatorship when its G index is larger than 13 and Democracy when it is below 6. "G index minus E index" is the remaining provisions in the G index after excluding the E index in Bebchuk et al.(2009). The explanatory variables include firm-specific and loan-specific variables. ln(total assets) refers to the logarithm of total assets of the firm in millions of USD before the loan initialization. ebitda/total assets is the ratio of EBITDA of the firm to the total assets of the firm. leverage is the total debt (long term plus short term) divided by the total assets of the firm. log(deal amount) refers to the logarithm of the size of the loan. ln(maturity) is the logarithm of the days of loan maturity. "Secured" is the binary variable, which is a unit of one when the loan is secured and lead arranger's reputation is controlled by the binary variable, 'Top 10 leader" having a unit of one when the lead arranger is top 10 ranked in the prior year to the year of loan origination. Standard errors are estimated with clustered errors at the firm level and are reported in parentheses. Regressions also include industry fixed effects(2 digit SIC), year fixed effects, and loan purpose indicators. ’, "“' indicate the level of gignificance at 5% and 1%, respectively. Herfindahl % Held by Lead Herfindahl % Held by Lead (5) (6) (7) (8) E index -38.53 -0.41 (24.73) (0.25) G index-E index -46.88"”" -0.33 (15.37) (0.18) Ln(total assets) 3.41 -1.76"‘* 14.33 4.44" (45.79) (0.48) (47.37) (0.49) Leverage -344.83"' -5.17** -309.41 -4.87* (155.71) (1.85) (160.80) (1.93) Ebitda/Sales -640.43‘“‘l -3.35 -678.17"”" -3.58 (216.24) (2.37) (210.42) (2.37) Ln(deal size) 435.06” -6.24"”" -725.24"“" -6.33"”" (57.10) (0.59) (58.90) (0.60) Ln(maturity) -243.4l ** -3.52** ~239. 16" -3.40" (60.86) (0.59) (61.41) (0.61 ) Secured 236.62" 184* 236.67" 2.06" (73.55) (0.78) (74.20) (0.79) Top 10 lender -158.34"‘ -1.37* 466.13" -1.57"‘ (65.60) (0.65) (67.09) (0.66) Intercept 17,786.93" 179.43" 17,729.76" 179.07" (892.27) (9.30) (916.65) (9.50) N 2227 2227 2155 2155 R-sguared 0.40 0.41 0.40 0.40 118 Table 2.3 Risk-Shifting and Loan Structure This table reports results from the loan structure regressions that use corporate charter provisions(G index from Gompers et al. (2003)) as a proxy for creditor's rights. The dependent variable in column ( 1) and (2) is the average share held by the lead arranger(s)(max < 100), in column (3) and (4), a constructed loan concentration using lenders' loan share, Herfindahl-Hirschman index(max <10,000) In column (5) and (6), the dependent variable is a binary one, "Secured", which takes the value of one when the loan is secured with collateral, zero otherwise. In column (7) and (8), "Number of financial covenans" is the dependent variable which is total number of financial covenants that the loan includes Firms are grouped into Distressed firms when Altman's zscore is below 1.81, and into Healthy firms when the score is greater than, or equal to 1.81. The explanatory variables include firm-specific and loan-specific variables. ln(total assets) refers to the logarithm of the total assets of the firm in millions of USD before the loan initialization. ebitda/total assets is the ratio of EBITDA of the firm to the total assets of the firm. leverage is the total debt (long term plus short term) divided by the total assets of the firm. log(dea1 amount) refers to the logarithm of the size of the loan. ln(maturity) is the logarithm of the days of loan maturity. "Top 10 leader" having a unit of one when the lead arranger is top 10 ranked in the prior year to the year of loan origination. Standard errors are estimated with clustered errors at the firm level and are reported in parentheses. Regressions also include industry fixed effects(2 digit SIC), year fixed effects, and loan purpose indicators. *, " indicate the level of significance at5% and 1%, respectively. fierfindam % Held by Lead Distressed firms Healthy firms Distressed firms Healthy firms (1) (2) £3) (4) G index -72.80*"' -0.47 -0.59" —0.07 (18.49) (15.28) (0.20) (0.18) Ln(total assets) 20.71 41.09 -1.14 -1.26 (66.10) (65 .66) (0.69) (0.72) Leverage -98.69 -538.50" -1.29 -9.03""" (245.56) (236.25) (2.62) (2.91) Ebitda/Sales -701.98""" -518.57 -5.30"' 0.16 (240.07) (473.60) (2.64) (5. 12) Ln(deal size) -636.97" -874.08*"' -6.29*"' -7.08" (70.23) (90.51) (0.74) (0.98) Ln(maturity) -142.28 -285.24"‘"' -2.90" -3.72" (92.61) (81.77) (0.88) (0.87) Secured 326.05" 94.59 1.50 2.65“ (106.41) (95.02) (1.22) (1.03) Top 10 lender -238.17* -100.65 -2.23"' -0.70 (1 10.15) (74.79) (1.03) (0.84) Intercept 16,403.13" 20,153.36“I 179.62" 18828" (1380.64) (1342.16) (12.92) (14.84) N 1026 1129 1026 1129 R-sguared 0.38 0.51 0.41 0.45 119 Table 2.3 Risk-Shifting and Loan Structure (cont.) This table reports results from the loan structure regressions that use corporate charter provisions(G index from Gompers et al. (2003)) as a proxy for creditor's rights. The dependent variable in column (1) and (2) is the average share held by the lead arranger(s)(max < 100), in column (3) and (4), a constructed loan concentration using lenders' loan share, Herfindahl-Hirschman index(max <10,000). In column (5) and (6), the dependent variable is a binary one, "Secured", which takes the value of one when the loan is secured with collateral, zero otherwise. In column (7) and (8), "Number of financial covenants" is the dependent variable which is total number of financial covenants that the loan includes. Firms are grouped into Distressed firms when Altman's zscore is below 1.81 , and into Healthy firms when the score is greater than, or equal to 1.81. The explanabry variables include firm-specific and loan-specific variables. ln(total assets) refers to the logarithm of the total assets of the firm in millions of USD before the loan initialization. ebitda/total assets is the ratio of EBITDA of the firm to the total assets of the firm. leverage is the total debt (long term plus short term) divided by the total assets of the firm. log(dea1 amount) refers to the logarithm of the size of the loan. ln(maturity) is the logarithm of the days of loan maturity. "Top 10 leader" having a unit of one when the lead arranger is top 10 ranked in the prior year to the year of loan origination. Standard errors are estimated with clustered errors at the firm level and are reported in parentheses. Regressions also include industry fixed effects(2 digit SIC), year fixed effects, and loan purpose indicators. ‘, *" indicate the level of si nificance at 5% and 1%, re ectivel . Number of Financial Covenants Distressed firms Healthy firms Distressed firms Healthy firms (5) (6) (7) (8) G index -0.1 1" -0.05“' -0.07""" 0.01 (0.02) (0.02) (0.01) (0.01) Ln(total assets) -0.20"'* -0.43*"‘ -0.1 1'" -0.23** (0.06) (0.08) (0.04) (0.05) Leverage 0.81 ” 1.63“ "' -0.08 0.20 (0.31) (0.33) (0.18) (0.20) Ebitda/Sales -0.95"' -1.74" -O.25 -0.31 (0.44) (0.72) (0.15) (0.45) Ln(deal size) -0.25** 0.00 -0.12" -0.10 (0.07) (0.09) (0.05) (0.06) Ln(maturity) 0.07 0.02 0.20" 0.05 (0.09) (0.09) (0.06) (0.06) Secured - - 0.47" 0.32" - - (0.09) (0.08) Top 10 lender -0.12 0.07 019" 0.00 (0.1 1) (0.1 1) (0.07) (0.06) Intercept 10.81" 2.61 3.32" 6.02” (1.39) (1.48) (0.91) (0.99) N 993 1102 823 936 R-squared - - 0.52 0.42 120 Table 2.4 Asset Substitutions and Loan Structure This table reports results from the loan structure regressions that use corporate charter provisions(G index from Gompers et al. (2003)) as a proxy for creditor’s rights. The dependent variable is the average share held by the lead arranger(s)(max < 100), a constructed loan concentration using lenders' loan share, Herfindahl-Hirschman index(max <10,000), "Secured", which takes the value of one when the loan is secured with collateral, zero otherwise, and "Number of financial covenants" which is total number of financial covenants that the loan includes. The explanatory variables include firm-specific and loan-specific variables. Firms' credit ratings are denoted by AA, A, BBB, BB, B, and CCC. ln(total assets) refers to the logarithm of the total assets of the firm in millions of USD before the loan initialization. ebitda/total assets is the ratio of EBITDA of the firm to the total assets of the firm. leverage is the total debt (long term plus short term) divided by the total assets of the firm. log(deal amount) refers to the logarithm of the size of the loan. ln(maturity) is the logarithm of the days of loan . maturity. "Top 10 leader" having a unit of one when the lead arranger is top 10 ranked in the prior year to the year of loan origination. Standard errors are estimated with clustered errors at the firm level and are reported in parentheses. Regressions also include industry fixed effects(2 digit SIC), year fixed effects, and loan purpose indicators. *, ** indicate the level of significance at 5% and 1%, respectively. Herfindahl % Held by Lead Secured Number of Financial Covenants G index “ AA -35.12 -0.15 -0.06 -0.07"”" (18.82) (0.20) (0.04) (0.02) G-index "' A -29.65 -0.14 -0.16** -0.06"“" (15.15) (0.15) (0.03) (0.01) G index * BBB -40.67"”" -0.23 -0.14"'* -0.01 (15.49) (0.16) (0.02) (0.01) G index * BB -45.33"‘ -0.36* 0.03 ' 0.01 (18.06) (0.17) (0.02) (0.02) G index * B 82.79“ 0.80’ 0.07 0.00 (34.41) (0.34) (0.04) (0.02) G index * CCC 79.53 -0.25 - 0.00 (65.99) (0.70) - (0.07) Ln(total assets) 123.91 0.05 -O.13 -0.1 1* (63.97) (0.60) (0.07) (0.04) Leverage 55.81 0.52 0.65“ 0.03 (261.41) (2.98) (0.33) (0.19) Ebitda/ Sales -2 1 3 .01 -2.54 -0.13 -0.06 (320.16) (3.37) (0.59) (0.36) Ln(deal size) -559.53** -4.90"”" -0.18‘l -0.07 (74.77) (0.69) (0.07) (0.05) Ln(maturity) -73.89 -2.22"”" 0. 16 0.09" (85.39) (0.76) (0.09) (0.04) Secured 221.12 2.56“ - 0.44" (123.27) (1.25) - (0.09) Top 10 lender -96.76 -1.00 0.15 -0.03 (83.04) (0.76) (0.1 1) (0.06) Intercept 11,654.63" 125.62" 4.36" 2.61" -l306.22 -12.33 -1.63 -0.89 N 1277 1277 1241 1068 R-squared 0.3 14 0.318 - 0.492 121 Table 2.5 CEO compensation and Loan Structure This table reports results from the loan structure regressions that use corporate charter provisions (G index from Gompers et al. (2003)) as a proxy for creditor’s rights. The dependent variable in column (1) and (2) is the average share held by the lead arranger(sXmax < 100), in column (3) and (4), a constructed loan concentration using lenders' loan share, Herfindahl-Hirschman index(max <10,000). In column (5) and (6), the dependent variable is a binary one, "Secured", which takes the value of one when the loan is secured with collateral, zero otherwise. In column (7) and (8), "Number of financial covenants" is the dependent variable which is total number of financial covenants that the loan includes. Delta is defined as the dollar change in a CEO's stock and option portfolio for a 1% change in stock price and Vega, as the dollar change in a CEO's option holdings for a 1% change in stock return volatility. The explanatory variables include firm-specific and loan- specific variables. ln(total assets) refers to the logarithm of total assets of the firm in millions of USD before the loan initialization. ebitda/total assets is the ratio of EBITDA of the firm to the total assets of the firm. leverage is the total debt (long term plus short term) divided by total assets of the firm. log(deal amount) refers to the logarithm of the size of the loan. ln(maturity) is the logarithm of the days of loan maturity. "Top 10 leader" having a unit of one when the lead arranger is top 10 ranked in the prior year to the year of loan origination. The coefficients are estimated using probit model and standard errors are reported in parentheses and clustered by firm. Regressions also include industry fixed effects(2 digit SIC), year fixed effects, and loan purpose indicators. "', "”" indicate the level of significance at 5% and 1%, respectively. Herfindahl %Held by Lead Secured . Nlm‘be’ °f Frnancral Covenants (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) Gindex -40.74"”'I -42.31""l -0.35* -0.36* -0.07" -0.07*"' -0.02 -0.02 (13.45) (13.39) (0.14) (0.14) (0.02) (0.02) (0.01) (0.01) Delta 7.41 "' 0.06 -0.01 0.00 (3.15) (0.04) (0.02) (0.00) Vega 274.59" 2.73""I -0.56"‘ -0.1 1 (83.16) (0.85) (0.28) (0.08) Ln(total asset: -5.02 -23.46 -1.21* -1.40"”" -0.23""l -0.20" -0.16"”" -0.15" ' (48.30) (49. 18) (0.51) (0.52) (0.05) (0.06) (0.04) (0.04) Leverage -74.54 -57.55 -2. 15 -1.94 2.01 " 1.94" 0.18 0.17 (205.12) (202.72) (2.65) (2.61) (0.31) (0.31) (0.16) (0.16) Ebitda/Sales -556.90 -635.57* —5.07 -5.89 -1.62" -1.53"”" -0.22 -0.20 (284.77) (283.73) (3.08) (3.09) (0.46) (0.47) (0.27) (0.27) Ln(deal size) -678.08** -682.47" -6.50" -6.56"”" -0.18** -0.18" -0.11” -0.11" (57.43) (57. 12) (0.62) (0.62) (0.06) (0.06) (0.04) (0.04) Ln(maturity) 499.97" 494.67" -2.16*"‘ -2.10** 0.11 0.11 0.12" 0.12" (67.92) (67.48) (0.66) (0.66) (0.07) (0.07) (0.04) (0.04) Secured 290.52" 298.38" 2.30" 2.38" 0.45" 0.44" (77. 10) (77.02) (0.87) (0.87) (0.06) (0.06) Top lOlender -139.45 -131.75 -1.45* -1.38 -0.02 -0.02 -0.06 -0.07 (74.81) (74.74) (0.74) (0.74) (0.08) (0.08) (0.05) (0.05) Intercept 20,358.82**20,622.78"211.46*‘214.35" 5.56" 5.31" 4.49” 4.41" (984.35) (997.00) (10.76) (10.86) (1.13) (1.14) (0.96) (0.96) N 1704 1704 1704 1704 1688 1688 1447 1447 R-squgred 0.39 0.39 0.39 0.40 0.44 0.44 122 Table 2.6 State Law and Loan Structure This table reports results from the loan structure regressions that use state-level antitakeover provisions and payout restriction as proxies for creditor's rights. The dependent variables in column (1) and (2) are the average share held by the lead arranger(s)(max < 100), and a constructed loan concentration using lenders' loan share, Herfindahl-Hirschman index(max <10,000). In column (3) to (6), the dependent variable is a binary one, "Secured", which takes the value of one when the loan is secured with collateral, zero otherwise. State-leve antitakeover index based on state's five antitakeover provisions (Bebchuck and Cohen, 2003) is categorized into three groups ("Not restrictive" when the index is zero, "Moderate" when the index falls between 1 and 3, and "Restrictive" larger than 3). "Not restrictive" is omitted in the regression as a base group. Some states also impose restriction on finn's payout activity based on the ratio of equity to debt. "Payout moderate" states ask the firms to have the ratio at minimun one. "Payout restrictive" at minimum 1.25. "Payout restriction" is a binary variable having the value of one when there is a state-level restriction on firm's payout The explanatory variables include firm- specific and loan-specific variables. ln(total assets) refers to the logarithm of the total assets of the firm in millions of USD before the loan initialization. ebitda/total assets is the ratio of EBITDA of the firm to the total assets of the firm. leverage is the total debt (long term plus short term) divided by the total assets of the firm. Iog(deal amount) refers to the logarithm of the size of the loan. ln(maturity) is the logarithm of the days of loan maturity. "Top 10 leader" having a unit of one when the lead arranger is top 10 ranked in the prior year to the year of loan origination. The coefficients are estimated using probit model and standard errors are reported in parentheses and clustered by firm. Regressions also include industry fixed effects(2 digit SIC), year fixed effects, and loan purpose indicators. *, " indicate the level of significance at 5% and Herfindahl % Held by Lead Secured (l) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) Moderate State -164.37 -4.24"' (209.58) (1.93) Restrictive State -172.34 -4.15"' (216.26) (1.99) Payout moderate -0.32" -0.27"”" (0.09) (0.09) Payout restrictive -1.13" -1.26” (0.32) (0.34) Payout restriction -0.34** -0.30"”" (0.09) ( 0.09) Ln(total assets) 13.68 4.62" -0.32” -0.33" -0.32" -0.32" (45.87) (0.49) (0.05) (0.05) (0.05) (0.05) Leverage -349.23* -5.01** 1.46" L68" “ 1.46“ * 1.67" (157.80) (1.87) . (0.24) (0.32) (0.24) (0.31) Ebitda/Sales -645.91" -3.86 -l.l7"“" -0.99"‘ -1.18" -l.01"' (218.47) (2.30) (0.36) (0.40) (0.36) (0.40) Ln(deal size) -749.41** -6.47“'"‘ -0.14* "‘ -0. 13" -0.15"“" -0. 13" (57.75) (0.59) (0.05) (0.06) (0.05) (0.06) Ln(maturity) -229.43" -3.37** 0.04 0.08 0.04 0.07 (61.06) (0.59) (0.06) (0.07) (0.06) (0.07) Secured 251 .45" * 2.03“ * - - - - (73.17) (0.78) - - - - Dividend Coven: - - - 0.76" - 0.75" - - - (0.10) - (0.10) Top 10 lender -16l.75"‘ o1.44* -0.04 -0.10 -0.04 ~0.11 (66.59) (0.66) (0.07) (0.08) (0.07) (0.08) Intercept 17,942.33" 184.48" 4.63" 4.37" 4.67" 4.45" (929.91) (9.52) (1.00) (1.23) (1.00) (1.23) N 2192 2192 2179 1889 2179 1889 R-sguared 0.40 0.42 - - - - 123 Table 2.7 Market Competition and Loan Structure This table reports results from the loan structure regressions that use corporate charter provisions (G index from Gompers et al. (2003)) as a proxy for creditor's rights. The dependent variables are the average share held by the lead arranger(s)(max < 100), and a constructed loan concentration using lenders' loan share, Herfindahl-Hirschman index(max <10,000). Firms are grouped based on the G index into Dictatorship when its G index is larger than 13 and Democracy when it is below 6. HHI is also a Herfindahl-Hirschman index for product market competition. It is cateorized into three groups, lowest, medium and high tercile of its empirical distribution. The explanatory variables include firm- specific and loan-specific variables. ln(total assets) refers to the logarithm of the total assets of the firm in millions of USD before the loan initialization. ebitda/total assets is the ratio of EBITDA of the firm to the total assets of the firm. leverage is the total debt (long term plus short term) divided by total assets of the firm. log(deal amount) refers to the logarithm of the size of the loan. ln(maturity) is the logarithm of the days of loan maturity. "Secured" is the binary variable, which is a unit of one when the loan is secured and lead arranger’s reputation is controlled by the binary variable, ‘Top 10 leader" having a unit of one when the lead arranger is top 10 ranked in the prior year to the year of loan origination. The coefficients are estimated using probit model and standard errors are reported in parentheses and clustered by firm. Regressions also include industry fixed effects(2 digit SIC), year fixed effects, and loan purpose indicators. *, *" indicate the level of significance at 5% and 1%, respectively. Herfindahl% Held by LeadHerfindahl% Held by LeadHerfindahl% Held by Lead (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) G index‘HHl(low) -40.66" -0.38" (13.42) (0.15) G index*HHI(medium) 49.02" -0.36"' (13.31) (0.15) G index*HHI(high) -24.05 -0. 17 (13.65) (0.15) Dictatorship*HHI(low) -289.82" -3.82"' (137.39) (1.53) Dictatorship'HHKmedium) -189.06 -0.20 (184.98) (2.85) Dictatorship’HHI(high) -210.49 -1 .90 (136.97) (1.81) Democracy‘HHIUow) -45.41 -1 .46 (259.67) (2.52) Democracy‘HHI(medium) 14.62 0.97 (206.21) (2.16) Democracy‘HHI(high) 210.74 2.89 (167.87) (1.72) Ln(total assets) 8.57 -1.45"”" 0.47 -1 .54" 2.20 - l .49" (47.42) (0.49) (47.32) (0.49) (46.93) (0.48) Leverage -303.75 499" -305.04 -4.9 l * -303.19 -4.87“ (159.24) (1.92) (161.92) (1.94) (163.00) (1.96) Ebitda/Sales -661.33** -3.39 -674.52" -3.48 -663 .44" -3 .46 (211.06) (2.39) (214.94) (2.43) (220.91) (2.52) 124 Table 2.7 Market Competition and Loan Structure (cont.) Ln(deal size) -72239" -6.32** -722.62"”" -6.32** -72392" -6.35** (59.05) (0.60) (59.1 1) (0.60) (58.94) (0.59) Ln(maturity) -241.65** -339" 239.01" -337" 241.39" -3.38** (61.49) (0.61) (62.01) (0.61) (61.90) (0.61) Secured [0,1] 226.25” 199* 254.00" 2.17M 257.97M 2.22" (73.94) (0.80) (75.39) (0.80) (76.00) (0.80) Top 10 lender [0,1] -167.59* -1.58* 459.4411 -1.50* 461.92" -1.55* (67.41) (0.66) (67.22) (0.66) (66.94) (0.66) 177.88 176.86 177.30 Intercept 17625.24 ,, 17437.16 ,, 17480.17 ,, #1! It ** (914.45) (9.58) (929.25) (9.57) (926.15) (9.51) N 2150 2150 2150 2150 2150 2150 R-squared 0.40 0.41 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40 125 Table 2.8 Market Competition and Loan Structure (Cont.) This table reports results from the loan structure regressions that use corporate charter provisions (G index from Gompers et al. (2003)) as a proxy for creditor's rights. In column (1) to (4), the dependent variable is a binary one, "Secured", which takes the value of one when the loan is secured with collateral, zero otherwise. In column (5) to (8), "Number of financial covenants" is the dependent variable which is total number of financial covenants that the loan includes. F inns are grouped based on the G index into Dictatorship when its G index is larger than 13 and Democracy when it is below 6. HHI is also Herfindahl-Hirschman index for product market competition. It is cateorized into three groups, lowest, medium and high tercile of its empirical distribution. The explanatory variables include firm-specific and loan-specific variables. ln(total assets) refers to the logarithm of total assets of the firm in millions of USD before the loan initialization. ebitda/total assets is the ratio of EBITDA of the firm to the total assets of the firm. leverage is the total debt (long term plus short term) divided by total assets of the firm. log(deal amount) refers to the logarithm of the size of the loan. ln(maturity) is the logarithm of the days of loan maturity. "Top 10 leader" having a unit of one when the lead arranger is top 10 ranked in the prior year to the year of loan origination. The coefficients are estimated using probit model and standard errors are reported in parentheses and clustered by firm. Regressions also include industry fixed effects(2 digit SIC), year fixed effects, and loan purpose indicators. *, " indicate the level of significance at 5% and 1%, respectively. Secured Number of Financial Covenants (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) G index -0.07"'"‘ -0.02"‘ p (0.02) (0.10) G index * HHI(low) -0.05** -0.04** (0.02) (0.01) G index * HHI(medium) -0.08** -0.02* (0.02) (0.01) G index "‘ HHI(high) -0.07"”" 0.00 (0.02) (0-01) Dictatorship "' HHI(low) -0.66* -0.23* (0.27) (0.1 1) Dictatorship * HHI(medium) -0.24 -0.18 (0.27) (0.19) Dictatorship "‘ HHI(high) 0.12 0.35 (0.24) (0.25) Democracy " HHI(low) 0.73" ‘ 0.31" (0-25) (0.14) Democracy * HHI(medium) 0.28 0.24 (0.21) (0.14) Democracy "' HHI(high) 0.11 ~0.15 (0.20) (0.13) Ln(total assets) -0.26"”" -027" _030... -029" -017" -017" -0.18"”" -0.18** (0.05) (0.05) (0.05) (0.05) (0.03) (0.03) (0.03) (0.03) Leverage 1.40M 1.44" 1.41" 1.40" 0.15 0.13 0.15 0.15 (0.23) (0.23) (0.23) (0.23) (0.13) (0.13) (0.12) (0.12) 126 Table 2.8 Market Competition and Loan Structure (Cont.) Ebitda/Sales -1.28** -1.28** -1.30** -1.26** 035* 033* 035* 033* (0.36) (0.36) (0.36) (0.36) (0.15) (0.15) (0.15) (0.15) Ln(deal size) 015** 014** 013* 014* 009* 009* 009* 009* (0.05) (0.05) (0.06) (0.05) (0.04) (0.04) (0.04) (0.04) Ln(maturity) 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.11** 0.12** 0.11** 0.11** (0.06) (0.06) (0.06) (0.06) (0.04) (0.04) (0.04) (0.04) Top 101ender [0,1] 002 002 001 001 008 009 008 -0.08 (0.07) (0.07) (0.07) (0.07) (0.05) (0.05) (0.05) (0.05) Secured [0,1] - - - — 0.42** 0.43** 0.43** 0.43** - - - - (0.06) (0.06) (0.06) (0.06) Intercept 4.89** 4.95** 4.22** 4.27** 3.82** 4.20** 4.15** 4.28** (1.01) (1.01) (1.03) (1.02) (0.88) (0.82) (0.81) (0.81) N 2144 2138 2138 2138 1759 1755 1755 1755 R-squared - - - — 0.43 0.43 0.43 0.43 127 2.8 Bibliography AGHION, B, AND P. BOLTON (1992): “An incomplete contracts approach to finan- cial contracting,” The Review of Economic Studies, 59(3), 473—494. ALTMAN, E. 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(2007): “Information asymmetry and financing arrangements: Evidence from syndicated loans,” The Journal of Finance, 62(2), 629. VASVARI, F. (2009): “Equity compensation and the pricing of syndicated loans,” . WALD, J ., AND M. LONG (2007): “The effect of state laws on capital structure,” Journal of Financial Economics, 83(2), 297—319. 130 CHAPTER 3 The Effects of Asset Liquidity on. the Loan Pricing Abstract I examine the impact of firms’ asset liquidation value which is proxied by asset liquid- ity on debt contracting using comprehensive US syndicated loan contracts. I employ various measures of the asset liquidity at the three—digit industry level. The borrower, belonging to a higher asset liquidity industry at the time of loan origination, experi- ences a lower loan spread. However as the maturity of a loan increases the impact of the asset liquidity declines. Furthermore I found that the loan Spreads are affected by the number of lenders because of the concern about coordination failures, and by the possibility of the borrower’s being involved in M&A activities. These results are consistent with incomplete contracting and transaction cost theories of liquidation value and financial structure. 131 3. 1 Introduction Although there are extensive theoretical predictions on how much important the liquidation values of borrower’s assets are on debt contracts 1, there are a few empirical studies including reCent ones such as Benmelech, Garmaise, and Moskowitz (2005), Gavazza (2010). In a financing contracting, the borrower and the lender try to make an optimal contract given the information available at the time of contracting. Among many considerations which are important for determining the terms of the loan, the infor- mation on the liquidation values of debtor’ assets, which will be seized up when the debtor is not able to repay (Aghion and Bolton, 1992, Bolton and Scharfstein, 1996, Hart and Moore, 1994) is not readily available because the liquidation values depend on the market condition at the time of liquidation of the assets. If we believe that despite the lack of complete information, the two parties will make the most of the then available information on the future liquidation values as rational economic agents behave. The information that they are interested in can be found simply from the previous one if they employ adaptive updating method for the information. As a proxy for the measure of the liquidation values during the span of loan maturity, I will use three-digit industry asset liquidity variables of the prior year to loan origination (more detailed explanation will be found in the next chapter). One of the questions on the effects of the liquidation values on loan structures, such as interest rates, maturity, and loan size is to know whether higher liquidation values contribute to lowering interest rates as predicted by theories. For this question, Ben- melech, Garmaise, and Moskowitz (2005), Gavazza (2010) demonstrate that higher liquidation value(or higher asset liquidity) lowers interest rates(for leasing contract- ing, markups of operating lease rates). These studies focus on US airplane sector. In my paper, I want to cover whole US industries other than the financial sector. This 1see, Aghion and Bolton (1992), Diamond (2004), Hart and Moore (1994) 132 broader coverage of industries and more detailed loan contracts using comprehensive firm loan data have some advantages. First, the results that will be drawn will be a general answer to whether the liquidation values of firrns’ assets affect the loan contracts. Second, I can control firm and loan characteristics that if missed, may affect the answer. Third, because of the rich details in loan terms, I can explore other aspects of the question. The rest of the paper is organized as follows. Section II discusses how to construct proxies for the liquidation values and data sources. Section III describes data sum- mary and model specification. Section IV presents the empirical results and discuss some relevant points. Section V discusses model specification and presents the results of a robust check regression, and Section VI concludes. 3.2 ’ Measures of Asset Liquidity I use asset liquidity as a proxy for the liquidation values for firms’ assets. The liquid- ity of assets can be defined as the extent to which asset sellers sell them at the prices that are the closest to their intrinsic values of use. The market liquidity of an asset becomes high when there is a high volume of transactions in an industry where the as- set is traded. To measure the volume of transactions, I construct various indices using two different data sources, Compustat and SDC. As in Eisfeldt and Rampini (2006), I also define the liquidity of firm’s assets as the ratio of the sum of firms’ acquisitions and sales of property, plant and equipment over firms’ total assets(or Property, Plant and Equipment, or Capital Expenditures) in an industry. Firms are grouped on the basis of their three-digit SIC. This measure represents the intensity of used capital transactions on the industry-year basis and asset liquidity. Although the items for ac- quisitions(AQC in Compustat) include various instances that are important in terms of accounting practices, they may not capture the ‘pure’ transactions which are more 133 relevant for the purpose of this paper. As a complementary measure, I construct a ratio which is the sum of the values of transactions of M&A, and asset sell/ purchase to corresponding industry’s total assets using the SDC data as in Ortiz-Molina and Phillips (2009). The SDC comprehensively registers all the transactions that entail M&A and asset acquisitions. To standardize the industry level liquidity, the total value of transactions in the three-digit SIC industry is divided by the industry’s total assets. In doing so while making sure the two data sets are compatible, I exclude the transactions when the sellers or purchasers are not identified based on the Compustat data. 3.3 Sample Construction, Empirical Specification 3.3.1 Sample Construction My data come from the Compustat Database, the Securities Data Corporation (SDC), and the Dealscan of Dealogic. Loan data from Dealscan were withdrawn by the month of June in 2007. Firms, the borrowers in the loans, are identified as Chava and Roberts (2008) did 2. I exclude financial firms (SIC codes 6000 to 6999) and loans contracted before 19903. 3.3.2 Empirical Specification and Key Variables To test the hypothesis, the following basic testing model is specified Spreadijt = a + 7t + SLiquidityJ-t + ngtci + Eijt (3.1) Spreadijt is the All-in-drawn spread on the bankloan measured over the LIBOR. “n is added to control macroeconomic common shocks to the firms. Liquidityjt rep- 2I thank for their generosity in providing firm identification information 3Previous researchers found the Dealscan data is not comprehensive before 1990. Many papers also use the loans originated after 1990 134 resents industry-level liquidity measures. These various measures based on (Eisfeldt and Rampini, 2006, Ortiz-Molina and Phillips, 2009) are included one by one for each regression. Xijt consists of firm’s and loan’s characteristics. Since the errors are believed to be correlated in the industry level, the equation (1.1) is estimated while taking account of clustering effects in the industry level (Petersen, 2009). In the analysis, I include control variables that have a high explanatory power for the interest spread. logAT is the logarithm of firm’s book-value total assets as a measure of firm’s size. Larger firms tend to be established earlier so that they have better access to external financing. Bl is book leverage((DLC + DLTT)/AT) constructed by dividing added values of long-term and short—term debts over total assets. Higher leveraged firms are more likely to default. A firm’s profits also is a very important indicator for assessing the probability of loan repayments. Profit is constructed by firm’s EBITDA over total assets(OIBDP / AT). Tang is firm’s tangible asset ratio against total assets (PPENT/ AT). One of the concerns that the lenders hold in lending decision is how to recover defaulted loans. The recovery depends on 4 is constructed as in Altman (1968) to the value of debtor’s tangible assets; Zscore capture the firm’s probability of default and its lower score translates into a higher cost of external financing. Along with firm characteristic variables, I include some loan-specific variables such as loan maturity, facility size, number of lenders, and dummy for whether the loan is secured. Longer maturity loans are more likely to be exposed to the uncertainty of default in the lender’s standpoint of view. The facility size is related with the spread because the amount of risk exposure is dependent on the size of loss. The number of lenders is also controlled because in the lender’s point of view, when the loan goes wrong, the more lenders means lesser burden that the individual lender should take. I also control for macroeconomic effects by including year dummies for the years of 43.3 * PI + SALE + 1.4 * RE + 1.2 * (ACT-LCT))/AT, where PI is Pretax Income; SALE is Net Sale; RE is Retained Earnings; ACT is Current Assets, and LCT is Current Liabilities 135 loan origination. 3.3.3 Summary Statistics Table 3.1 provides year-wise summary of loan and asset liquidity data. The data set includes 22,433 loans, and covers 235 unique three-digit SIC industries. Average size of tranche is 260.7 million dollars with maturity being 3 years. On average, 7.5 lenders join a loan syndicate. The Spread over LIBOR that the borrowers pay is 185.7 basis points. Among the entire sample loans of which 75% are ‘Secured’ in that when the borrowers go default, the lenders can claim on firms’ assets to recover their loans. A number of data observations in the Dealscan does not report whether the loans are ‘Secured’, for such reason, I lose about 7000 observations in the regression analysis. However in lender’s point of view, whether the loans are ‘Secured’ or not is very important when it comes to loan pricing because secured assets at least stem losses for the lenders when the borrowers cannot make repayments. For this reason, the variable, ‘Secured’ should be included in the empirical models although I lose many observations. The average size of firms in the sample is 6.4 billion dollars in terms of their book- value total assets. These average firms are comparatively large because of the sample selection. Although the Dealscan covers comprehensively US syndicated loans, for the study, the ones that can be identified by the robust matching rules are only included in the final sample and in general the firms in the Compustat are large and established earlier. The sample mean of Property, Plant, and Equipment(PPENT) is 2.7 billion dollars and of which 7.4% change ownership by selling and purchasing. On average, the firms’ leverage is 0.33 and profit ratio stands at 0.14. The firms hold 35% of total assets as tangible assets, Property, Plant, and Equipment. The financial condition of the average firm in terms of its bankruptcy probability is Grey: Altman (1968) 136 grouped three categories according to firm’s zscore5, Distress, Grey, and Safe when its zscore falls below 1.8, or between 1.8 and 2.99, and above 2.99 respectively. As measures of asset liquidity, I have used six different definitions. Reall is the sum of SPPE(Sales of Property, Plant, and Equipment) and AQC(Acquisition of assets). Reall/Capital investment is defined as the ratio of Reall over capital in- vestment(property, plant, and equipment - capital expenditures) that in the sample is 66%. Instead Reall, AQC and SPPE are divided by capital investment respec- tively, AQC/ Capital investment is seven times larger than the ratio of SPPE/ Capital investment. I also construct measures in that AQC, and SPPE are divided by the corresponding industry’s one-year lagged AT, and PPENT. Furthermore, to see the effects of the change in the composition of the asset liquidity, the ratio of SPPE/Reall is added as another measure. In line with Ortiz-Molina and Phillips (2009), Shleifer and Vishny (1992), asset liquidity is determined by the number of competing firms in the same industry which are able to purchase used capital. In the sample, NoPotBuy is defined as the number of rival firms in the three-digit SIC industry that have debt ratings. On average there are 20 competing firms in an industry, however the standard deviation is very large. Another index for asset liquidity for robust checks is constructed using the SDC data set in the same manner for the previous measures. Compared with Reall/lag( A T) sourced from the Compustat, Total transactions/A ssetsfifrom the SDC is slightly smaller. 5The zscore is an indicator for the probability of bankruptcy of a firm in two years 6Total transactions are the values of trades, and when this information is missing, the value of zero is assigned 137 3.4 Empirical Results In this section I present main empirical findings’on the effect of asset liquidity on loan pricing. I divide the discussion into sub—sections. The first one is to examine the question of whether asset liquidity affects the loan pricing, and if it does, then to what extent. In the second subsection, I examine when loan maturity becomes longer, which is understood as increased uncertainty on asset liquidity, whether the impact of asset liquidity is still effective. In the following subsection, I will investigate how coordination failure among the lenders affects the loan pricing. 3.4.1 Main results I begin by examining how the three-digit industry level asset liquidity affects the loan pricing while comprehensively controlling firm and loan characteristics in the regressions. Table 3.2 presents the results of the regressions with the various asset liquidity measures. The dependent variable, All in spread drawn(henceforth aisd) is taken in logarithm to control for skewness in the data7. As can be seen from Column (1), the coefficient of Reall/ CAPX V is negative and significant. Since this is a linear model, the coefficient is also equal to the marginal effect. To estimate the economic significance of this result, we examine a predicted decline in loan spreads that would happen if the asset liquidity of industry increases by one standard deviation. Based on the estimates from the model (1) of Table 3.2, one standard deviation increase causes the spread to decline by 43pr, and this amounts to 2.5% decline around the average spread that the borrowers pay additionally over LIBOR. 1 Such effects of the asset liquidity are also observed following the various asset liquid- 7'Results are qualitatively unchanged if we directly use All in spread drawn as the dependent variable 80.76*0.03*187.82) 138 ity measures: AQC/ CAPX V, Reall/lag(AT), AQC/lag(AT), and Reall/lag(PPEN T), although their statistical significances vary. Unlike those measures, the coefficient of the SPPE/Reall is shown positive, which also squares with my prediction. In the used capital market, if the number of sellers is larger than that of buyers (in my sample, which is represented as the difference in the composition structure of reallocation). When the SPPE/Reall increases, in other words, the firms that belong to an industry whose SPPE/Reall gets larger relatively compared with that of other industries, be- cause of lower probability for the firms to sell their used capital in the capital market at their intrinsic values, the lenders ask higher interest rates to avoid the loss from selling borrower’s assets at lower prices in the future. The coefficients on the loan’s and firm’s characteristics are not only highly significant, save Number of Lenders, but also Show right signs. As the firm’s size, profitability, and tangibility increase, the spread declines, however when the leverage, a measure of financial condition of the firm, worsens, the spread increases. Table 3.3 reports the estimates of the regressions in which the measures of asset liquidity are interacted with dummies constructed based on the Zscore. diss indicates that the firm’s zscore is below 1.8, and when the score falls between 1.8 and 2.99, the firm is categorized as grey. safe is assigned when the score is above 2.99. As shown, only the coefficient of the interaction of the asset liquidity with grey is statistically significant at the 1% significance level. Not only that, in the economic sense, when the increase in the Reall/Capri} is made by one standard deviation the spread declines by 11bp , which is more than double the decrease in the spread in Column (1) of Table 3.2. At the time of lending decision, the most obscure firm to lenders in terms of its bankruptcy probability in the future will be the one whose zscore is in the grey area. Although basing their lending decision on the information that is currently available at the time of lending, the lenders cannot be sure of the future event regarding the grey firms. If we believe lenders act rationally, the lenders will be much less concerned 139 with the liquidation value of a firrn’s assets when the industry to which the borrowing firm belongs is more liquid. This lightens lenders’ concern and will be expressed as more deep cuts in the spread, especially for the grey firms. 3.4.2 Maturity and Uncertainty As maturity gets longer, lenders will be exposed to uncertainty because of the current information becomes less informative in the future. As we have observed, the cur— rent information on asset liquidity affects the loan pricing at the reciprocal manner. However as maturity increases, the impact of asset liquidity declines. This predic- tion is shown more obviously in Table 3.4 when as asset liquidity measures I use Reall/Caprv and AQC/Caprv. However for the measures such as Reall/lag(At) and Reall/lag(PPEN T), the same effect is not observed. Such difference can be found in the inherent characteristic of capital expenditure. Capital expenditure is one of the most volatile aggregate expenditures in the macroeconomic sense. Because of such high volatility, the information on it is more likely to become obsolete as the time at which the information is used moves farther away from the current time. In contrast, the effect of the change in the composition of asset liquidity, SPPE/Reall, turns into being positive as maturity increases. If lenders have to liqui— date the borrower’s assets in the narrow span of time, they have to make a deep cut in selling prices; however when loan maturity is longer, the incident of deep cutting will be expected to be less severe compared with the case in the current situation. This aspect appeared as a relatively slower speed of spread increase for the loan whose maturity is longer. 3.4.3 Coordination failure and Pricing At the time when lenders have to liquidate, the liquidation value of assets can be expressed as a function of not only markfioliquidity, but also the number of lenders. As the number of lenders increase, coordination among lenders will be more difficult in deciding how to dispose of the borrower’ assets. Delayed liquidation decision may miss the optimal selling time and it translates into lower recovery values. To compensate for the loss gap stemming from coordination failure, lenders will ask higher spread. To check whether this claim is plausible in the contracting, I interact liquidity measures with a dummy variable whose value is one when there is a sole lender. Table 3.5 presents the results of the regressions. In model (1), and (2), as asset liquidity increases, the spread declines as observed in the previous regressions. The coefficients of the interactions of Reall/Cava * Sole lender, and AQC/Caprv I" Sole lender are negative and significant at the 5% level. For alternative liquidity measures, the prediction still holds. 3.5 Discussion and Robust test In this section, I want to discuss issues of model specification and robust test. The effects of asset liquidity on the loan pricing may not be one dimension. The asset liquidity can be understood as the degree of threat of being a target company for risk-increasing M&A. If it is the case, then the specification of the model should take account of this aspect. The results that we have seen so far support the theoretical prediction. In the environment of higher asset liquidity, lenders ask lower spread for the firms whose industry liquidity is higher. However, high asset liquidity does not necessarily work for the direction of lowering the spread. When an industry experiences a high M&A activity, which can increase asset liquidity to a larger extent, borrowing firms also can be exposed to a risk for being a M&A target, or may actively involve themselves in acquiring other firms. In either case whether the borrower is a target, or purchaser, those transactions will heighten financial risks to the given lenders because of bor— 141 rower’s increased leverage, or uncertainty of whether debt seniority is respected after being acquiredg. This different aspect of the effect of asset liquidity on loan pricing renders me to think of the model specification to capture this aspect. The model, which is not only simple, but which also presents the two different regimes of the effects of asset liquidity, is a polynomial function of second-degree in that the measures of asset liquidity are squared. Although increased asset liquidity contributes to the alleviation of lender’s concern for liquidation values, when the liquidity rises beyond a certain level, the increased liquidity may adversely affect the loan pricing. Table 3.6 reports the estimates of the regressions. In column (1), until Reall/Cava reaches 2.25(0.09/(2*0.02)) which stands at the 95 percentile of the variable, the negative relationship between the loan spread and asset liquidity holds as before. For the other variables of the measure of asset liquidity, the points from which the curves turn direction are also located at around the 95 percentile of each variable’s distribution. The concern for borrower’s being exposed to M&A target is legitimate. As ? has observed, when the borrower steps up its takeover defense by increasing the number of anti-takeover provisions, the borrower benefits lower spread from external bank financing. In my paper, I examine the relationship between loan pricing and M&A threat. To measure the intensity of M&A threat, I use NoPotBuyers, the number of rival firms in the three-digit industry that have rating, and in the other model, I interact the NoPotBuyers with the Zscore to compare the effect of M&A threat by differing levels of borrower’s financial condition. Table 3.7 shows the results of the two regressions when the variable in interest is NoPotBuyers alone, or its interaction with Zscore. In the column (1), the coefficient of NoPotBuyers is not significant at any level of significance. However in column 9? examined how year-level M&A activity affects the loan pricing 142 (2), for the borrower whose financial condition in the Safe zone, as the number of rival firms, NoPotBuyers, gets larger, the loan spread increases. This results shed a light on how lenders respond to the uncertainty of loan repayment: by increasing loan spread when the probability of the borrowers’ being involved in M&A is high. For the measures of asset liquidity, I have used accounting data from the Compustat. In using this data, there may be an argument that because this is accounting data, it may not represent the real asset sales and purchases. To support my findings, I have constructed a very similar measure using the SDC data set. Since this data set captures only real asset transactions, it may rightly represent the asset liquidity. Instead of the previous liquidity measure, I estimate the coefficient of the variable in question while controlling the same firm and loan characteristics. The result shows the same conclusion although its standard variance is larger compared with Reall/Caprv so that the coefficient is statistically significant at the 10% levell.0 3.6 Conclusion In the debt contracting theory, the liquidation values of borrower’s assets are of importance because to force the borrower to repay loans, the lenders should be able to trigger a credible liquidation threat. However when the triggering is constrained by the market condition in which the lenders can not find the second best user of the assets, the lenders hesitant to enter into a debt contracting. This paper examined whether increased asset liquidity results in lowering spread of the loans. Along with the strong results in answering the question, the paper found the lenders are concerned about the borrower whose default probability prediction is difficult. Furthermore, in relation with loan maturity, as the maturity gets longer, the effect of current- period asset liquidity is shown to decline because of the increased uncertainty of asset 1Upon request, I will provide data and the result 143 liquidity in the future. In addition, when more than one lender are participating in a loan syndicate, coordination failures may occur and this affects the loan pricing. This effect is also empirically observed in the paper. Finally, I explored the effects of excess asset. liquidity on the loan pricing, and found that the spread increases when firm’s asset is too liquid. 144 Table 3.1 Summary Statistics Variable Mean STD. N Number of Lenders . 7.5 8.9 22428 Tranche Amount(\$M) 260.7 619.7 22433 Maturity 1333.5 769.4 22433 All in spread Drawn(bp) 185.7 131.0 22433 Secured[0 or I] 0.75 0.43 15362 Assets(\SM) 6435.2 4781 1.0 22431 Property, Plant, and Equipment (\SM, PPEN": 2687.6 24524.8 22367 Sales of Assets(\$M, SPPE) 41.7 464.0 19810 Aquisitions of Assets(\$M, AQC) 153.1 1342.5 22087 Leverage 0.33 0.23 22366 Profitability 0.14 0.10 22380 Tangibility 0.35 0.24 22363 Zscore l .86 1. l 8 20900 Reall/Capital investment 0.66 0.76 22433 AQC/Capital investment ' 0.58 0.75 22433 SPPE/Capital investment 0.08 0. 12 22433 Reall/lag(Assets) 0.04 0.04 22433 AQC/lag(Assets) 0.03 0.04 22433 Reall/lag(PPENT) ' 0.15 0.18 22433 SPPE/Reall 0.23 0.24 22433 NoPotBuy 20.4 26.9 22428 Total transactions/Assets(from SDC) 0.02 0.06 22431 145 Table 3.2 Effects of Asset Liquidity on the Loan Pricing This table reports estimate results from the regressions which relate the effects of asset liquidity to the loan pricing. The measures of asset liquidity are constructed at the three-digit industry level. The explanatory variables include firm-specific, and loan-specific characteristics, ln(total assets) refers to the book-value total assets of the firm in millions of USD before the loan initialization. leverage is the total debt (long term plus short term) divided by total assets of the firm. profitability is the ratio of EBITDA of the firm to total assets of the firm. tangibility is the ratio of Property, Plant, and Equipment over total assets of the firm. zscore is constructed according to Altman (1968), ln(maturity) indicates the logarithm of the maturity of loan in days. ln(facility size) is the logarithm of the size of facility in dollars. The number of lenders in the syndicate is denoted by Number of Lenders. Secured is a dummy indicating whether the loan is secured. Robust standard errors are estimated with clustered errors at the three-digit industry level and are reported in parentheses. Regressions also include year fixed effects, and loan 10%, 5% and 1%, purpose indicators. ’, "', "* indicate the level of significance at respectively. (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) Reall/CAPXV 003*" (0.01) AQC/CAPXV -0.03""' (0.01) Reall/lag(AT) -0.33* (0.18) AQC/lag(AT) -0.32"' (0.18) Reall/lag(PPENT) -0. 14*" (0.04) SPPE/Reall 0.09" (0.04) Ln(Facility size) -0.09"“'"' -0.09"”'”" -0.09"”‘”" -0.09*” -0.09“”" 009"” (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) Ln(Maturity) -0.02*" -0.02""" -0.02"'* -0.02""“ -0.02*" -0.02“ (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) Number of Lenders 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Secured [0 or 1] 0.72"" 0.72“" 0.72"" 0.72“" 0.72““ 072*" (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) Ln(Total assets) -0.08"”'”" -0.08*“ 008"" -0.08"* -0.08"" -0.08*" (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) Leverage 051*" 0.51"” 0.51“" 051*" 0.50"" 0.51"" (0.03) (0.03) (0.03) (0.03) (0.03) (0.03) Profitability -0.85"* -0.84"* -0.84‘”'”" -0.84*" -0.84"'"”" 0.83"" (0.12) (0.12) (0.12) (0.12) (0.12) (0.12) Tangibility -0. 13"" -0.13"”"‘ -0.10“ -0.1 I” 014*" -0.12"”'”" (0.05) (0.05) (0.05) (0.04) (0.05) (0.04) Zscore -0.03"”'”" -0.03**"' -0.03"”"' -0.03"”""' -0.03"”'”" -0.03*" (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) Intercept 6.76“” 676*“ 675*” 6.76"" 6.78“" 6.74"" (0.10) (0.10) (0.09) (0.09) (0.10) (0.10) N 14325 14325 14325 14325 14325 14325 R squared 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 146 Table 3.3 Default Probability and Asset Liquidity This table reports estimate results from the regressions which relate the effects of asset liquidity to the loan pricing. The measures of asset liquidity are constructed at the three-digit industry level. distress is a dummy whose value is one when zscore is below 1.8, grey is a dummy whose value is one when zscore falls between 1.8 and 2.99, and when the zscore is above 2.99, a dummy, safe is assigned one. The explanatory variables include firm-specific, and loan-specific characteristics, ln(total assets) refers to the book-value total assets of the firm in millions of USD before the loan initialization. leverage is the total debt (long term plus short term) divided by total assets of the firm. profitability is the ratio of EBITDA of the firm to total assets of the firm. tangibility is the ratio of Property, Plant, and Equipment over total assets of the firm. zscore is constructed according to Altman (1968), ln(maturity) indicates the logarithm of the maturity of loan in days. ln(facility size) is the logarithm of the size of facility in dollars. The number of lenders in the syndicate is denoted by Number of Lenders. Secured is a dummy indicating whether the loan is secured. Robust standard errors are estimated with clustered errors at the three-digit industry level and are reported in parentheses. Regressions also include year fixed effects, and loan purpose indicators. *, "', "* indicate the level of significance at 10%, 5% and 1%, respectively. (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) Reall/CAPXV "' distress -0.01 (0.01) Reall/CAPXV " grey -0.08*" (0.01) Reall/CAPXV "' safe -0.03 (0.02) AQC/CAPXV "‘ distress -0.01 (0.01) AQC/CAPXV "‘ grey -0.08*** (0.02) AQC/CAPXV * safe -0.03 (0.02) Reall/lag(AT) * distress -0.01 (0.17) Reall/lag(AT) * grey -1.31"* (0.28) Reall/lag(AT) "' safe -0.42 (0.41) AQC/lag(AT) "‘ distress 0.04 (0.16) AQC/lag(AT) " grey -1.38"""* (0.29) AQC/lag(AT) "' safe -0.45 (0.42) Reall/lag(PPENT) "' distress -0.07 7 (0.05) Reall/lag(PPENT) "‘ grey 029*" (0.06) Reall/lag(PPENT) " safe -0. 12 (0.07) SPPE/Reall " distress 0.10“ (0.05) 147 Table 3.3 Default Probability and Asset Liquidity(cont.) SPPE/Reall " grey 0.03 - (0.04) SPPE/Reall " safe 018“" (0.05) Ln(Facility size) 009‘" 009*" 009*" -0.09"”‘“‘I 009*" -0.09"" (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) Ln(Maturity) -0.02"“" -0.02"‘* 002" -0.02" -0.02** -0.02" (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) Number of Lenders 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Secured [0 or 1] 0.72““l 072*" 072"" 072*" 0.72“" 072*" (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) Ln(Total assets) -0.08*""" -0.08""‘ -0.08"“""' 008*" 008*" -0.08*" (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) Leverage 050"” 0.50“" 0.50“" 0.50"“ 0.50"“ 0.50"" (0.03) (0.03) (0.03) (0.03) (0.03) (0.03) Profitability 084"" -0.83"”'”" -0.82""‘”" 082"" -0.83"* 083"" (0.12) (0.12) (0.12) (0.12) (0.12) (0.12) Tangibility 013*" 013*" -0.11‘”" -0.11" -0.14"“'”" -0.13"* (0.04) (0.04) (0.04) (0.04) (0.04) (0.04) Zscore -0.02""'"" -0.02*" 002"" -0.02"”'”" 002*" 003"" (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) Intercept 675"" 6.75"" 6.75"" 6.75"" 677*" 6.74"" (0.09) (0.09) (0.09) (0.09) (0.10) (0.10) N 14325 14325 14325 14325 14325 14325 R sMed 0.61 0.61 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 148 Table 3.4 Maturity and the Loan Pricing This table reports estimate results from the regressions which relate the effects of asset liquidity to the loan pricing. The measures of asset liquidity are constructed at the three-digit industry level. The explanatory variables include firm-specific, and loan-specific characteristics, ln(total assets) refers to the book-value total assets of the firm in millions of USD before the loan initialization. leverage is the total debt (long term plus short term) divided by total assets of the firm. profitability is the ratio of EBITDA of the firm to total assets of the firm. tangibility is the ratio of Property, Plant, and Equipment over total assets of the firm. zscore is constructed according to Altman (1968), ln(maturity) indicates the logarithm of the maturity of loan in days. ln(facility size) is the logarithm of the size of facility in dollars. The number of lenders in the syndicate is denoted by Number of Lenders. Secured is a. dummy indicating whether the loan is secured. Robust standard errors are estimated with clustered errors at the three-digit industry level and are reported in parentheses. Regressions also include year fixed effects, and loan purpose indicators. *, "', *** indicate the level of significance at 10%, 5% and 1%, respectively. (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) Reall/CAPXV -0.18*** (0.07) Reall/CAPXV " Ln(Maturity‘ 0.02" (0.01) AQC/CAPXV -0.19"'*"' (0.07) AQC/CAPXV * Ln(Maturity) 0.02" (0.01) RealVlag(AT) - l .30 (1.45) RealVlag(AT) "' Ln(Maturity) 0.14 (0.20) AQC/lag(AT) -l .98 (1.46) AQC/lag(AT) "' Ln(Maturity) 0.23 (0.20) RealVlag(PPENT) -0.46 (0.29) RealVlag(PPENT) "' Ln(Maturity) 0.04 (0.04) SPPE/Reall 0.94“" (0.27) SPPE/Reall * Ln(Maturity) 012*" (0.04) Ln(Facility size) -0.09*** -0.09"* -0.09"'** -0.09"”'"" -0.09"* 009‘" (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) . (0.01) Ln(Maturity) -0.03*** -0.03*** -0.03" -0.03*"”" -0.03** 0.01 (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) Number of Lenders 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Secured [0 or I] 072*" 072*" 0.72"" 0.72““‘ 072*" 0.72““l (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) Ln(Total assets) -0.08"“'“" -0.08"'" -0.08"“'“" -0.08"* -0.08*"“" 008"" (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) 149 Leverage Table 3.4 Maturity and the Loan Pricing(cont.) 051*” 051*" 0.51‘" 051*" 0.50“” 050*" (0.03) (0.03) (0.03) (0.03) (0.03) (0.03) Profitability 084“" -0.84"'"‘"‘ -0.84*" 084"“ -0.84"‘" 083"“ (0.12) (0.12) (0.12) (0.12) (0.12) (0.12) Tangibility 013*" -0. l3"”‘”‘I -0.10** -0.11"“" -0. 14*" -0.12’””“ (0.05) (0.05) (0.05) (0.05) (0.05) (0.04) Zscore -0.03"“'“'I -0.03*** ~0.03"”"'l -0.03*** 003*" -0.03"”'”" (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) Intercept 686*" 686‘” 679*" 6.81"" 6.83“” 6.55”" (0.11) (0.11) (0.10) (0.11) (0.12) (0.10) N 14325 14325 14325 14325 14325 14325 R squared 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 150 Table 3.5 Coordination Failure and the Loan Pricing This table reports estimate results from the regressions which relate the effects of asset liquidity to the loan pricing. The measures of asset liquidity are constructed at the three-digit industry level. The explanatory variables include firm-specific, and loan-specific characteristics, ln(total assets) refers to the book-value total assets of the firm in millions of USD before the loan initialization. leverage is the total debt (long term plus short term) divided by total assets of the firm. profitability is the ratio of EBITDA of the firm to total assets of the firm. tangibility is the ratio of Property, Plant, and Equipment over total assets of the firm. zscore is constructed according to Altman (1968), ln(maturity) indicates the logarithm of the maturity of loan in days. ln(facility size) is the logarithm of the size of facility in dollars. The number of lenders in the syndicate is denoted by Number of Lenders. Secured is a dummy indicating whether the loan is secured. Robust standard errors are estimated with clustered errors at the three-digit industry level and are reported in parentheses. Regressions also include year fixed effects, and loan purpose indicators. *, "', *" indicate the level of significance at 10%, 5% and 1%, respectively. (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) Reall/CAPXV -0.02* (0.01) Reall/CAPXV " Sole lender -0.04"“" (0.02) AQC/CAPXV -0.02"”" (0.01) AQC/CAPXV "' Sole lender -0.04" ' (0.02) RealVlag(AT) -0. 16 (0.18) RealVlag(AT) * Sole lender -0.63*** (0.23) AQC/Iag(AT) -0. 15 (0.18) AQC/lag(AT) * Sole lender ~0.66""'”" (0.25) RealVlag(PPENT) -0.1 I" (0.04) RealVlag(PPENT) "' Sole lender -0.09 (0.07) SPPE/Reall 0.09‘l (0.05) SPPE/Reall "' Sole lender 0.00 (0.06) Ln(Facility size) -0.09"* 009*" -0.09"”"* -0.09*” -0.09”* -0.09*" (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) Ln(Maturity) -0.02" -0.02** -0.02"'""" -0.02"”"" -0.02"“" -0.02"”" ' (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) Number of Lenders 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Secured [0 or 1] 072*" 072*" 0.72“" 0.72‘" 072*" 072*" (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) Ln(Total assets) 008"" -0.08"* -0.08""'"" -0.08*"”" -0.08"""" -0.08"'" (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) 151 Table 3.5 Coordination Failure and the Loan Pricing(cont.) Leverage 051*" 051*" 050"" 050*" 0.50"" 051*" (0.03) (0.03) (0.03) (0.03) (0.03) (0.03) Profitability -0.85"‘"* -0.85*"“" -0.85*** -0.85"'*" -0.85*" -0.83"”'”" (0.12) (0.12) (0.12) (0.12) (0.12) (0.12) Tangibility -0.12*"”" -0.12‘”'”" -0.10""" -0.10""" -0.14*** -0.l2‘”'”" (0.05) (0.05) (0.05) (0.04) (0.05) (0.04) Zscore -0.03*"”" -0.03*"‘* -0.03*** -0.03"”'”" -0.03"* -0.03"* (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) Intercept 684*" 683*" 683*" 683*" 682*" 673*" (0.10) (0.10) (0.10) (0.10) (0.10) (0.10) N 14325 14325 14325 14325 14325 14325 R squared 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 152 Table 3.6 Leverage Increasing Activity and the LoanPricing This table reports estimate results from the regressions which relate the effects of asset liquidity to the loan pricing. The measures of asset liquidity are constructed at the three-digit industry level. The explanatory variables include firm-specific, and loan-specific characteristics, ln(total assets) refers to the book-value total assets of the firm in millions of USD before the loan initialization. leverage is the total debt (long term plus short term) divided by total assets of the firm. profitability is the ratio of EBITDA of the firm to total assets of the firm. tangibility is the ratio of Property, Plant, and Equipment over total assets of the firm. zscore is constructed according to Altman (1968), ln(maturity) indicates the logarithm of the maturity of loan in days. ln(facility size) is the logarithm of the size of facility in dollars. The number of lenders in the syndicate is denoted by Number of Lenders. Secured is a dummy indicating whether the loan is secured. Robust standard errors are estimated with clustered errors at the three-digit industry level and are reported in parentheses. Regressions also include year fixed effects, and loan purpose indicators. *, “', *** indicate the level of significance at 10%, 5% and 1%, respectively. (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) Reall/CAPXV 009*" (0.02) Reall/CAPXV2 002*" (0.00) AQC/CAPXV 009*" (0.02) AQC/CAva2 0.02*** (0.00) RealVlag(AT) -0.96*" (0.34) RealVlag(AT)2 3.03" (1.23) AQC/lag(AT) -1.08*** (0.34) AQC/lag(AT)2 3.77*** (1.31) RealVlag(PPENT) -0.28** (0.11) RealVlag(PPENT)2 0.19 (0.15) SPPE/Reall 0.07 (0.10) SPPE/Reallz 0.02 (0.12) Ln(Facility size) 009*" -0.09*** 009*" 009*" 009*** 009*" (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) Ln(Maturity) 002** 002** 002** 002** 002** 002" (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) Number of Lenders 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 153 Table 3.6 Leverage Increasing Activity and the Loan Pricing(cont.) Secured [0 or 1] 0.72"" 072*" 0.72"“ 072‘" 0.72"" 0.72"" (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) Ln(Total assets) 008“" -0.08“”" 008"" -0.08"" -0.08""’ -0.08"" (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) Leverage 0.51“” 051*" 0.51“” 051*" 050*" 0.51”" (0.03) (0.03) (0.03) (0.03) (0.03) (0.03) Profitability -0.84""‘ 084*” -0.84"“"“ -0.83""‘ -0.84*** -0.83"”"* (0.12) (0.12) (0.12) (0.12) (0.12) (0.12) Tangibility -0. 14”" -0.15"* -0.1 I“ -0.11"”“ -0.15”* -0.12"" (0.05) (0.04) (0.04) (0.04) (0.04) (0.04) Zscore -0.03*" -0.03*** -0.03"""* -0.03*" -0.03""'”' -0.03"”"* (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) Intercept 6.79"* 6.78"" 6.77"”Ml 6.77"" 6.79"" 6.74"“ (0.10) (0.10) (0.09) (0.09) (0.10) (0.10) N 14325 14325 14325 14325 14325 14325 R squared 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 154 Table 3.7 Takevover and the Loan Pricing This table reports estimate results from the regressions which relate the effects of asset liquidity to the loan pricing. lNoPotBuy is the number of rival firms in the three-digit industry and in the logarithm. distress is a dummy whose value is one when zscore is below 1.8, grey is a dummy whose value is one when zscore falls between 1.8 and 2.99, and when the zscore is above 2.99, a dummy, safe is assigned one. The explanatory variables include firm-specific, and loan-specific characteristics, ln(total assets) refers to the book-value total assets of the firm in millions of USD before the loan initialization. leverage is the total debt (long term plus short term) divided by total assets of the firm. profitability is the ratio of EBITDA of the firm to total assets of the firm. tangibility is the ratio of Property, Plant, and Equipment over total assets of the firm. zscore is constructed according to Altman (1968), ln(maturity) indicates the logarithm of the maturity of loan in days. ln(facility size) is the logarithm of the size of facility in dollars. The number of lenders in the syndicate is denoted by Number of Lenders. Secured is a dummy indicating whether the loan is secured. Robust standard errors are estimated with clustered errors at the three-digit industry level and are reported in parentheses. Regressions also include year fixed effects, and loan purpose indicators. *, "', "'" indicate the level of significance at 10%, 5% and 1%, respectively. (1) (2) lNoPotBuy 0.01 (0.01) lNoPotBuy "' distress 0.01 (0.01) lNoPotBuy "' grey -0.01 (0.01) lNoPotBuy "‘ safe 003*" (0.01) Ln(Facility size) -0.09*** -0.09"”'”" (0.01) (0.01) Ln(Maturity) -0.02"“" -0.02"“" (0.01) (0.01) Number of Lenders 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Secured [0 or 1] 072*" 0.72"” (0.02) (0.02) Ln(Total assets) -0.08**"‘ -0.08*** (0.01) (0.01) Leverage 051*" 0.50"" (0.03) (0.03) Profitability -035“: 083"" (0.12) (0.12) Tangibility -0.1 I" -0.12** (0.05) (0.05) Zscore 002*" -0.03*** (0.01) (0.01) Intercept 6.72“" 6.74"" (0.10) (0.10) N 14321 14321 R squared 0.60 0.60 155 3.7 Bibliography AGHION, P., AND P. BOLTON (1992): “An incomplete contracts approach to finan- cial contracting,” The Review of Economic Studies, 59(3), 473—494. ALTMAN, E. 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