.- 5V9“: This is to certify that the thesis entitled THE SPATIAL DYNAMICS OF RAPE: THE SAN DIEGO EXAMPLE presented by James Lawrence LeBeau has been accepted towards fulfillment of the requirements for Ph. D. degree in Geography 511K [MC/CLK ~~ rm“ Major professor Date October 9, 1978 0-7639 OVERDUE FINES ARE 25¢ PER DAY PER ITEM Return to book drop to remove this checkout from your record. © 1978 JAMES LAWRENCE LE BEAU ALL RI GHTS RESERVED THE SPATIAL DYNAMICS OF RAPE: THE SAN DIEGO EXAMPLE BY James Lawrence LeBeau A DISSERTATION Submitted to Michigan State University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY Department of Geography 1978 ABSTRACT THE SPATIAL DYNAMICS OF RAPE: THE SAN DIEGO EXAMPLE BY James Lawrence LeBeau Exploratory, static, and aspatial are the salient traits of previous rape research. This study addresses the converse of each trait by constructing and testing hypotheses which entail examining rape through time within a spatial framework. The rape data are from the files of the San Diego, California Police Department for the time period 1971 to 1975. Therefore, the four hypotheses tested in this research are subject to the caveat of consistency through time. The first hypothesis asserts that the spatial order of rape can be explained by the spatial variation of the family life cycle and land use structure. The consistency through time requirement was still in effect since the independent variables were selected from the 1970 Federal Census and a 1975 Special Census of San Diego. Additional land use variables were selected from 1971 and 1975 land use surveys. The dependent variable was each census tract's proportion of the total reported rapes for the years 1971, 1974, and 1975. The more than thirty independent variables were reduced to six independent dimensions through factor analytic procedures. The multi- ple regression model was employed for each year, but further analyses James Lawrence LeBeau were suspended because the independent variables were weak explainers of the spatial order of rape. Also, the variables comprising the six independent dimensions for 1971 were incongruent with the six indepen- dent dimensions in 1975. Moreover, the analyses for 1974 and 1975 which employed the same independent variables produced different results to the extent that some independent variables changed their relative strengths in explaining and degree or direction of association with the dependent variable. Therefore, the null hypothesis was accepted. The second hypothesis asserted that the greater the age dis- parity between the victim and offender in the rapes involving the more anonymous interpersonal relationships, the greater the distance between their residences. Cartesian coordinates for each residence were con- structed from which the distances for three age disparity groups were calculated. Through the use of analysis of variance with multiple comparisons, only two of the five years supported the hypothesized relationship. Therefore, the null hypothesis was accepted. The third hypothesis is identical to the second except race- ethnic membership was substituted for age disparity. Hence, the assertion is that absolute distance between the residences of the participants in intraracial rapes will be less than in inter—racial rapes. Only two years supported this hypothesis and as a consequence the null hypothesis was accepted. In the fourth hypothesis, a criminal career typology was developed with the main discriminating criterion being the number of offenses committed by one offender before he becomes known and/or apprehended by the police. The essence of this hypothesis is that James Lawrence LeBeau significant social and spatial differences emerge when rape is examined within the criminal career framework. The techniques used in testing this hypothesis include analysis of variance with multiple comparisons, cartography, centrography, and chi-square. The null hypothesis was accepted because not one measure was able to define criminal career group individuality that was consistent through time. However, some important relationships were encountered for a majority of the years in this study. The open/unknown offenders are predominantly strangers to their victims and employ the more perilous methods of operation (i.e., illegal entry of residence and kidnap—attack outdoors). Spatially, there is minimal movement of the victim by the offender and the offenses occur throughout the urban ecological structure. The single offenders are more socially diverse to include all victim—offender relationships and methods of operation. Spatially, there is more joint movement of the victim and offender but the acts are committed throughout the urban ecological structure. The series offenders are similar to the Open/ unknown offenders in three respects: (1) he is predominantly a stranger to his victims; (2) he employs the more perilous methods of operation; and (3) he moves his victim less than the single offenders. But this offender uses the same geOgraphic Space repeatedly and patterns him- self in the urban ecological structure. An important by-product of this research was that a revised rape law which was in effect for all of 1975 had what appears to be a significant effect on the social and spatial composition of rape. First, there was an increase in the rapes that involved the more intimate relationships. Second, there was an increase in the number James Lawrence LeBeau of cases that involved alleged victim complicity methods of operation (i.e., hitchhike and meet offender in a bar). Finally, rape exploded spatially to encompass previously inactive census tracts and ecological areas of the city. Regardless of the uniform acceptance of the null hypothesis, it was proven that rape is not static spatially or socially. Therefore, how valid are the inferences and generalizations generated from other rape and crime studies which were based in only one year or time period? The material in this project was prepared under grant No. 77-NI-99—0028 from the Law Enforcement Assistance Administration, U.S. Department of Justice. Researchers undertaking such projects under Government sponsorship are encouraged to express freely their professional judgment. Therefore, points of view or opinions stated in this document do not necessarily represent the official position or policy of the U.S. Department of Justice. ii The points of view or opinions expressed in this research do not necessarily represent the official position or policy of the San Diego, California Police Department. iii To my best friend and wife, Gwen-~Thank You! iv ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The list of individuals that I wish to acknowledge is perhaps unusually long, because the personalities who have influenced the development and direction of my dissertation, as well as my graduate career, emanate from the academic disciplines of criminal justice and geography as well as from various criminal justice agencies and organi- zations. I would first like to thank Chief William Kolender of the San Diego Policy Department for allowing me access to the records and per- sonnel of his department. Moreover, I am deeply indebted to Captain Charles R. Schilder who was assigned by Chief Kolender to coordinate and facilitate my activities in the department. Captain Schilder is a great teacher and because of him I was able to gain unusual insights into the operations of a large urban police department. Thus, I know why the San Diego Police Department is one of the best in the country. I would also like to thank Mr. Robert J. Polansky of the San Diego County Criminal Justice Planning Board and Mr. Ross Hall of the Comprehensive Planning Organization for their invaluable assistance and cooperation in this research project. Special thanks must be accorded to Bob and Rose Langworthy. This research would not have materialized without their generosity and lasting friendship. Bob and I were colleagues as geography graduate students and in the very near future we will be reunited as colleagues in criminal justice. I would like to thank my adviser, Dr. Joe T. Darden, for his guidance, patience, support, and honesty. Special thanks is accorded to Dr. Robert I. Wittick whose contribution to my personal and pro- fessional maturation has been boundless. I would like to thank Dr. Lawrence M. Sommers for his timely advice and guidance and contributing to a very interesting graduate school experience. In addition, I would like to thank Dr. Dieter Brunnschweiler for his participation, advice, and his refreshing ability that reminds scientists that they are also human beings. I would also like to thank the individuals in the School of Criminal Justice who provided the eclectic environment necessary for professional development. I am indebted to Dr. Ralph G. Lewis for his guidance, confidence, and occasional constructive harassment. Special thanks is accorded to Dr. Robert Lorinskas. I hOpe in the future that I am as capable as Dr. Lorinskas in conducting seminars of exceptional quality. I would like to thank Dr. John K. Hudzik for his diligent advice and editing of the grant proposal which consequently obtained the funding for this research. I would also like to thank Mr. Steven M. Edwards of the Police Foundation, Dr. Jack R. Greene, Dr. John H. McNamara, and Dr. Victor G. Strecher for their assistance, guidance and friendship. Special thanks is accorded to the following individuals in the geography department whose brightness, sense of humor and comradeship vi have made the journey through graduate school most rewarding: Bill Cochran; Bill Corcoran; Brad Cullen; Bill Gribb; John Harrington; Maureen McDavit; Garrett Peaslee; and Bruce and Mary Pigozzi. Gratitude is extended to the Law Enforcement Assistance Administration, U. S. Department of Justice for providing financial support for this research through their National Competitive Disserta- tion Fellowship Program. My thanks go out to Mr. Ralph DeVitto for drafting the maps in the manuscript and to Mr. Mike Lipsey for his very needed technical assistance. To Fayann Lippincott, who typed the manuscript, I offer my many thanks. Finally, I would like to thank the victims of a husband and father in graduate school. I am eternally grateful to my wife, Gwen and my sons, Zachary and Aaron, for their love, support, sacrifice, patience, and understanding. vii TABLE OF CONTENTS Page LIST OF TABLES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xii LIST OF FIGURES. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xiv Chapter I. BACKGROUND AND STATEMENT OF THE RESEARCH PROBLEM I Introduction. 1 The Magnitude of Rape. l The Specific Characteristics of Rape. . . 2 The Impact of the Feminist Movement on Rape Laws, 3 Statement of the Problem. 7 Significance of the Problem. 8 Organization of the Study 9 Notes to Chapter I. 10 11. REVIEW AND INTERPRETATION OF THE LITERATURE . . . . . 12 Introduction to Relevant Literature . . . . . . . 12 General Implications . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 The Modus Operandi. . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 Crime Scenes. . . . . . . . . . . 17 Victim- Offender Relationship . . . . . . . . . 20 Number of Offenders . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 Race Differentials. . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 Age Differentials . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 Crime, Distance, and Movement . . . . . . . . . 30 Open, Single, and Series Offenders . . . . . . . 34 Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36 Notes to Chapter II . . . . . . . . . . . . 36 III. DATA AND METHODOLOGY. . . . . . . . . . . . . 40 Theoretical Framework. . . . . . . . . . . . 4O Victimization Inferences . . . . . . . . . . 40 The Family Life Cycle . . . . . . . . . . . 40 viii Chapter Page Distortions of the Life Cycle Explanation . . . . 43 Other Explanatory Phenomena. . . . . . . . . 43 Major Rape Variations. . . . . 44 The Criminal Career as the Spatial Process. . . . 45 Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . 46 The Research Hypotheses . . . . . . . . . . 46 The Study Area. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47 The Problems of Choosing an Ideal Research Site . . 47 Data Sources. . . . . 52 San Diego Police Department Definition of Terms . . 52 Annual Rape Volume. . . . . . . . . . 53 Operational Definition of Rape. . . . . . S6 The Description and Collection of Rape Data . . . 59 Rape Variables . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60 Land Use Variables. . . . . . . . . . . . 64 Census Variables . . . . . . . . . . . . 65 Methods of Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . 67 Introduction. . . . . . . . . 67 Analysis of the First Hypothesis . . . . . . . 67 Analysis of the Second Hypothesis. . . . . . . 69 Analysis of the Third Hypothesis . . . . . . . 71 Analysis of the Fourth Hypothesis. . . . . . . 72 Limitations to the Study. . . . . . . . . . 76 Notes to Chapter III. . . . . . . . . . . . 77 IV. THE SPATIAL DYNAMICS OF RAPE: 1971, 1974, and 1975 . , 82 The Spatial Order of Rape . . . . . . . . . . 82 Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . 82 The Dependent Variable . . . . . . . . . . 82 1971 Factor Structure. . . . . . . . . 84 Factor I, 1971, Late Stage vs. Family Stage . . . 84 Factor 11, 1971, Racial- Ethnic Minorities and Limited Resources . . . . . . . . . 87 Factor III, 1971, Youth Occupance. . . . . . . 87 Factor IV, 1971, Male- Commercial Occupance. . . . 87 Factor V, 1971, Transportation-Manufacturing . . . 88 Factor VI, 1971, Non-working Female-~High Resources. 88 The 1975 Factor Structure .. . . . . . . . . 88 Factor I, 1975, Male--Commercial . . . . . . . 89 Factor II, 1975, Youth Areas . . . . . . . 89 Factor III,197S,Racial--Ethnic Minorities . . . 89 ix Chapter Page 'Factor IV, 1975, Renters-Low Resources-Small Population Per Household . . . . . . . . . 90 Factor V, 1975, Late Stage vs. Young Family . . . 90 Factor VI, 1975, Manufacturing-Commercial Land . . 90 Interpretation of Differences . . . . . . . . 90 The Spatial Distribution of Rape: 1971, 1974 and 1975. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91 Rape Regression Models: 1971; 1974; and 1975 . . . 95 Residual Analysis: 1971, 1974, and 1975. . . . . 101 Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105 Notes to Chapter IV . . . . . . . . . . . . 106 V. DISTANCE AND VICTIM-OFFENDER DEMOGRAPHIC DIFFERENTIALS . 108 Age Disparity and Distance. . . . . . . . . . 108 Race - Rape - Distance . . . . . . . . . . . 113 Introduction. . . . 113 Victim- Offender Racial and Ethnicity Interactions: 1971-1975 . . . . . . 113 Distance by Victim- Offender Race/Ethnicity. . . . 117 Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 120 Notes to Chapter V . . . . . . . . . . . . 120 VI. CURSORY EVIDENCE OF SPATIAL-SOCIAL TRENDS . . . . . 122 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . 122 Victim- Offender Relationship. 1971-1975 . . . . . 122 Method of Operation. 1971-1975 . . . . . . . . 124 Selected Measures of Change . . . . . . . . . 128 Conclusions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131 Notes to Chapter VI . . . . . . . . . . . . 131 VII. CRIMINAL CAREER-OFFENDER STATUS: SPATIAL-SOCIAL REGULARITIES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 132 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . 132 Open/Unknown Offender Status . . . . . . . . . 133 Single Incident Offender Status . . . . . . . . 133 Series Offender Status . . . . . . . . 136 Summary of the Offender Status Groups . . . . . 138 Annual Fluctuations of Offender Status Groups . . . 138 Distance of the Crime Scene From the CBD . . . . . 141 The Journey to Crime. . . . . . . . . . . 146 Number of Scenes and Offender Status . . . . . . 152 Distance and Offender Status . . . . . . . . 155 Rape and Offender Status--A Spatial Description. . . 155 Chapter VIII. BIBLIOG APPENDI Appendi A. B. C. Central San Diego--197l . Northern San Diego--1971. Central San Diego-~1972 . . Central San Diego--1973 . Central San Diego--1974 . Central San Diego--l975 . Northern San Diego--197S. The Shape, Area, and Density of the Offender Status Groups. . . Offender Status and Urban Ecological Structure Summary . . . Notes to Chapter VII . CONCLUSIONS. . Intervening Variables. . . Notes to Chapter VIII. . RAPHY. . .' . . . . . CES X San Diego Police Department Forms Data Collection Form. . . Intercorrelation Matrices: 1971 and 1975 . xi Page 160 160 160 164 164 167 167 170 181 197 202 203 207 210 211 218 221 225 Table IN) 0) LIST OF TABLES Amir's Initial Meeting Place Types . Amir's Crime Scene Types Amir's Victim-Offender Relationship Categories . Racial Interactions . San Diego Population Change Annual Frequencies and Proportions of Single Offender Rapes by Case Status . Annual Frequencies and PrOportions of Multiple Offender Rapes by Case Status . Number of Rape Scenes and Definitions . Victim-Offender Relationship Categories Method of Approaching the Victim. Land Use Classifications: 1971-1975. Census Measures: 1970 and 1975 Censuses 1971 and 1975 Factor Structure Summary Table: Significant Factors in the Spatial Patterns of Rape in San Diego; 1971; 1974; 8 1975 Age Distribution of Rape Victims and Offenders: 1971-1975. Distance and Age Disparity: 1971—1975 . Victim - Offender Racial - Ethnic Interaction Victim-Offender, Race-Ethnic Composition: 1971-1975 xii Page 18 19 23 26 50 S4 57 65 66 85 96 109 112 114 116 Table 5.5 6.1 6.2 6.3 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.4 7.5 7.6 7.7 7.8 Distance Between Residence by Offender-Victim Race . Victim-Offender Relationship: 1971—1975. Method of Operation: 1971-1975. Selected Measures of Rape Change: 1971-1975 Open/Unknown Offender Status: Victim—Offender Relationship and Method of Operation . . . . Single Incident Offender Status: Victim-Offender Relation- ship and Method of Operation. Series Offender Status: Victim-Offender Relationship and Method of Operation. Offender Status: 1971-1975 . Annual Mean Distances of the Crime Scene from the CBD by Offender Status . Annual Distance Variations of Each Offender Status Group . Single and Series Offenders' Journey to the Initial Meeting Place. Single and Series Offenders' Journey to the Initial Meeting Place (All Non-Illegal Entry Rapes). Single and Series Offender's Journey to the Initial Meeting Place (Illegal Entry MO Only). Annual Scene Averages by Offender Status Distance and Offender Status Areal Distributions of Offender Status Types: 1971-1975 Selected Centrographic Measures for Offender Status Groups: 1971-1975 Offender Status and Ecological Structure - 1971 Offender Status and Ecological Structure - 1974 Offender Status and Ecological Structure - 1975 . xiii Page 119 123 125 129 150 151 153 156 158 175 185 189 192 Figure (N H 7.9 7.10 LIST OF FIGURES San Diego 1970 Census Tracts . San Diego—~197l Census Tract Reported . San Diego--l974 Census Tract Reported . . San Diego--197S Census Tract Reported . Standardized Residuals: 1971 Percentage of Total Rapes Percentage of Total Rapes Percentage of Total Rapes Standardized Residuals: 1974 . Standardized Residuals: 1975 . Central San Diego--l97l. Northern San Diego-~197l Central San Diego--1972. Central San Diego-~1973. Central San Diego--l974. Central San Diego—-l975. Northern San Diego--l975 San Diego: Mean Centers of Crime Scenes by Offender Status. 1971-1975. San Diego Ec010gica1 Structure 1971. San Diego Ecological Structure 1975. xiv Page 51 92 163 165 166 168 169 172 184 188 CHAPTER I BACKGROUND AND STATEMENT OF THE RESEARCH PROBLEM Introduction This research focuses on the spatial dynamics of rape. The approach is spatial and is derived from one of geography's four tradi- tions.1 The overall objective is the application of geographic con- cepts and techniques to better understand the spatial character of one crime.2 Rape was selected as the subject of this research because of its individuality and current social ramifications. The Magnitude of Rape The Federal Bureau of Investigation estimated that there were 56,090 forcible rape incidents in the nation during 1975. In other words, 51 out of every 100,000 females were rape victims. Since 1970, the frequency of forcible rape has increased 42 percent. Nevertheless, the volume of rape for 1975 comprised less than one percent of the total index crimes and only six percent of the crimes of violence.3 These figures may not appear to indicate that rape is a serious problem for research, but discriminating characteristics of the crime, coupled with current social trends have made it a highly volatile and controversial offense worthy of more research. The Specific Characteristics of Rape Rape differs from other crimes in many respects. Firstly, rape is victim-specific; victims are primarily of the female sex while the offenders are of the male sex.4 Secondly, rape is currently the fastest increasing crime with the lowest proportion of its cases closed by reason of arrest.5 Thirdly, rape is one of the most diffi- cult crimes to successfully prosecute. For example, 58 percent of those arrested for rape in 1975 were prosecuted but 46 percent of these cases were negated because of acquittals and dismissals.6 Fourthly, in some states, rape statutes, unlike other criminal statutes, have a corroboration requirement. Corroboration simply means that other evidence must substantiate the victims testimony that the crime actually took place.7 Fifthly, rape ranks second to homicide in its severity to the victim. But physical wounds to the victim are only short term when compared to the potential long term psychological and social wounds. These five characteristics accompanied by the fact that rape has recently become a very important political issue have increased the demand for scientific research on the problem of rape. Organiza— tions identified with, and sympathetic to the feminist movement, have used rape as a prime example of the injustices suffered by women in society, specifically the treatment of rape victims in the criminal justice system. For a number of reasons, many rape victims have been reluctant to report the crime, file a complaint, and participate in a prosecution attempt. Among those reasons are the following: (1) a majority of the states have rape statutes which require corroboration, evidence of force, and lack of victim consent; (2) judicial and juror attitudes make the victim feel that she is the one who has to prove her innocence; (3) courtroom practices permit the defense to disclose the victim's sexual history; and (4) police interrogation, investigation, and evi- dence gathering techniques are perceived to be insensitive to the victim.8 But one of the most important factors for victim reluctance to report the crime has been the social stigma attached to the public identification of a rape victim. This stigmatization may take the form of (l) the victim being relegated to an inferior group or class of females as the type of woman who is raped; and (2) considerable doubt among the victim's family, friends, and peers as to her moral character. The result is that it becomes difficult for the victim to retain normal interactions with her family, friends, and peers. The social stigma attached to rape has been, in some instances, associated with post-rape psychological traumas suffered by the victim. The more manifest forms pertain to the inability of the victim to main- tain and/or continue normal male-female social and sexual relation- ships. Many victims become divorced, some commit suicide. Thus, the treatment of rape victims has included not only institutional and orga- nizational treatment, but social treatment as well.9 The Impact of the Feminist Movement on Rape Laws Public awareness of rape has increased recently, primarily because of the involvement of the feminist movement. Their involvement also has had considerable impact on those organizations in the criminal justice system directly involved with the processing of rape incidents. As of August 1975, thirteen states had reformed their rape laws, while eight other states had reform legislation pending.10 An important item in almost all rape statute reforms has been the elimination or modifi- cation of the corroboration requirement. Also, disclosure of the vic- tim's prior sexual history has come under considerable modification. Consequently, in some states, (California, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, and Nebraska) evidence of the victim's prior sexual history or conduct is only admissible at the discretion of the judge. The evidence is presented to the judge in his chambers where he ascertains the rele— vancy of the evidence to the case. Essentially, the judge decides if evidence pertaining to the victim's sexual history will be presented to the jury.11 Because of the emphasis on rape reform, many police departments have formed or are in the process of forming special Sex Crimes Analysis Units (SCAU). Police have recognized the individual character of rape and are in the process of deveIOping new investigative techniques and procedures. Female police officers are important members of the specialized staff in a Sex Crime Analysis Unit. Many police officials now believe that in the past, many rape cases failed to reach a successful conclusion because much information and many details were not elicited by male investigators because of the inability of the victim to discuss the incident freely with the police officer.12 Thus, greater sensitivity towards the victim has become an overriding concern of the police. This is based on the assumption that better treatment of the victims will result in the procurement of essential information which will expedite the process of offender apprehension and subsequent conviction. As previously stated, the feminist movement has been critical of the treatment of rape victims in the organization of the criminal justice system. However, the social stigma unjustly attached to the rape victim is another form of harsh treatment which cannot be totally alleviated by the inducement of organizational changes. However, the women's movement has responded to this problem by the creation of the rape crisis center. Thus, an organization has been created to deal with the problems confronted by the victim. The phenomenon of a rape crisis center began almost simulta- neously during 1972 in six cities: District of Columbia, Chicago, Detroit, Philadelphia, Seattle, and Berkeley.13 Many factors are attributable to the organization and subsequent diffusion of rape crisis centers but it is certain that a rape victimization survey con- ducted by the Law Enforcement Assistance Administration (LEAA) in 1972, which concluded that only 25 percent of all rapes are reported, was an important impetus to the formation of rape crisis centers.14 The present number of rape crisis centers throughout the nation is not known, primarily because these organizations are mostly voluntary with financial support from diverse sources. Thus, the exact number in operation fluctuates. Some centers are created while others cease operation. Nevertheless, the majority of the centers have four fundamental goals: . To provide support services to victims. . To reform institutions which deal with victims. 1 2 3. To educate themselves and the public on rape related issues. 4. To reform the law. Although rape crisis centers are apparently female in orien- tation, an anomaly appeared in Philadelphia in 1975 in the form of a men's rape crisis center. Men Organized Against Rape (MOAR) functions as a hotline for male friends and relatives of rape victims. These males are counselled as to their role in helping the rape victim.1 Rape crisis centers have become a new source of information pertaining to the crime in addition to the traditional source of rape information provided by law enforcement agencies. The political, social, and organizational responses to the alleged rape problem are responsible for the proliferation of an abundance of information pertaining to the crime. The problem with this information is that it represents nothing more than a mammoth collection of facts. These facts are considerably lacking in organi- zation, measurement, and overall validation of their significance. But there is one scheme or standard from which the seemingly confusing rape facts can be organized and analyzed. The Uniform Crime Reports for 1975 stated that the crime occurred more frequently in large cities with 250,000 or more inhabitants which accounted for more than 42 percent of all the offenses.16 Thus, at the national level, rape is not ubiquitous and has a spatial bias in the intensities of its distribution. Moreover, benchmark geography of crime research has proven that the crime is not ubiquitous at the intraurban level.17 Hence, a novel and different alternative is to incorporate the rape information into a spatial framework. Then, from this framework, the rape information can be organized, measured, and analyzed. The title of this research is "The Spatial Dynamics of Rape." It is paramount to assume that rape is dynamic. But the spatial dyna— mics of rape are more optimally understood if they are qualified by concepts borrowed from other academic disciplines. The major organi- zational concept for the rape typology involves three classifications of the criminal career or simply how many incidents were committed by one offender before he was apprehended. Thus, three criminal career categories are mandatory: (1) Open/unknown-number offenses by a single criminal is unknown; (2) Single-one offender commits one offense and then becomes known to the police; and (3) Series-~a single offender commits two or more rapes before he becomes known to the police. The concepts subordinate to the career typology include interpersonal rela- tionship between the victim and offender and most importantly the modus operandi or how the offender approaches the victim. These factors imply that rape can be placed into a typology where there are distinct spatial expressions for each rape type. These expressions are manifest in variations of distance, location, and ultimately pattern. However, these assertions provide nothing more than a sophisticated description of the spatial patterns of different rape types. The Optimal goal is to explain these spatial patterns. Statement of the Problem The central research problem is divided into three separate but highly interrelated phases: (1) determine and describe the spatial characteristics of rape; (2) determine and describe the dyna- mics of the spatial characteristics of rape; and (3) explain the spatial characteristics and dynamics of rape. Significance of the Problem The significance of the research problem can be measured or justified by two criteria: Firstly, the problem is timely. Rape is a current and very controversial issue. Thus, the interest in rape can be found in many sectors of society; Secondly, rape has never been studied in a detailed spatial framework. Therefore, the critical measures of the problem's significance appeal to rape's timeliness and the different or unique perspective from which the problem is being researched. But the merits of the research problem go beyond the traditional "motherhood and apple pie goals." The real significance of the research problem is that it directly and indirectly addresses geography's problem of interaction on two levels. The first level deals with interdisciplinary inter- action or the borrowing of concepts and ideas from other academic disciplines in order to more clearly understand the subject of rape. In this study, the author has relied heavily on the antecedent research of non-geographers (i.e., criminologists, sociologists, and psychologists). The assumption is that geographers, especially in social research situations, have to investigate other approaches and perspectives in order to extract spatial inferences. The second level pertains to the interaction between the academic and non-academic sectors of society, essentially, the interaction between the academic oriented geographer and the police department. As previously stated, the problem is to determine, describe, and explain the spatial patterns and dynamics. But a secondary, but less apparent function of the research, is to partially acquaint geographers interested in crime-related research with the operation of a police department. In essence, the product of the previous discussions on the significance of a research problem in relation to geography is a question rather than a definitive statement--How functional is social geographic research without acquainting oneself with works of other academic disciplines and partially understanding the operations of the non-academic organizations which for all practical purposes are the sources of data? Organization of the Study The remainder of the study comprises four chapters. Chapter two consists of an extensive literature review. The major thrust of this chapter is to examine pertinent literature from all disciplines and extract spatial inferences. In the third chapter, entitled Data and Methodology, the spatial inferences developed in the previous chapter are placed in a theoretical framework based on theories previously verified pertaining to the structure of urban space. Thus, the research objectives and hypotheses of the study are formulated. Following that is a description of the study area, definition of terms, data sources, and variable description. Particular attention should be paid to the description of sources and format of the rape data. The final portion of the chapter discusses the methods of analyses. The following four chapters comprise the essence of this study. Chapter IV, The Spatial Dynamics of Rape: 1971, 1974, and 1975, discusses the spatial order of rape. Chapter V, Distance and 10 Victim-Offender Demographic Differentials, discusses the relationship between age and race disparity with distance. Chapter VI, Cursory Evidence of Spatial-Social Trends, discusses descriptors of annual rape change. Chapter VII, Criminal Career-Offender Status: Spatial- Social Regularities, is the most extensive portion of this study. The discussion pertains to identifying and explaining the salient spatial- social characteristics of different rape types. The last chapter, Conclusions, is perhaps the most important chapter in terms of an objective self critique of the study and recommendations for future research. Notes to Chapter I 1William D. Pattison, "The Four Traditions of Geography,” in Geographical Research and Writing) by Robert W. Durrenberger (New YBrk: Thomas Y. Crowell Company, 1971), pp. 85—95. See also David Harvey, Explanation in Geography (London: Edward Arnold (Publishers) LTD, 1969), pp. 114-116. 2Crime as a concept and the problems of interpretation are discussed in Herman Golstein's Policing a Free Society (Cambridge, Massachusetts: Ballenger Publishing Company, 1977), pp. 29-31. 3Federal Bureau of Investigation, Crime in the United States 1975: Uniform Crime Reports (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office, 1976), p. 22. 4Although there have been numerous cases of homosexual rape, :most have occurred in correctional institutions. There have also been female offender-male victim rapes, but most have been rare 1nc1dents. 5Lisa Brodyaga et al., Rape and Its Victims: A Report for Citxizens, Health Facilities, and Criminal Justice Agencies . . (Washington, D.C.: National Institute of Law Enforcement and Criminal Justice, 1975), p. 2. 6Uniform Crime Reports, 1975, p. 24. 11 7Lynn Olson and Janice Stiers, Rape (Washington, D.C.: National League of Cities, 1974), p. S. 81bid., pp. 4-7. 9Kurt Weis and Sandra 5. Borges, "Victimology and Rape: The Case of the Legitimate Victim," Issues in Criminology, Volume 8, Number 2 (Fall 1973), pp. 104-106. 10Lucian K. Truscott, "Rape: The Liberals' Law and Order Issue," Oui: For the Man of the World, Volume 5, Number 2 (February 1976), p. 46. 11Brodyaga et al., 1975, p. 273. 12Louis C. Cottell, "Rape: The Ultimate Invasion of Privacy," FBI Law Enforcement Bulletin, May 1974, p. 8. 13 Brodyaga et al., 1975, p. 123. 14 . Olson and Stiers, 1974, p. 10. 1DBrodyaga et al., 1975, p. 126. 16Uniform Crime Reports, 1975, p. 22. 17Gerald F. Pyle et al., The Spatial Dynamics of Crime (Chicago: University of Chicago, Department of Geography Research Paper Number 159, 1974). CHAPTER II REVIEW AND INTERPRETATION OF THE LITERATURE Introduction to Relevant Literature It must be noted that this research relies heavily on two pre- vious works: Menachem Amir's Patterns in Forcible Rape (1971) and Gerald Pyle's et a1. Spatial Dynamics of Crime (1974). The former represents the most comprehensive and scholarly work pertaining to the phenomenon while the latter represents the only attempt by a member of the geo- graphy profession to provide a pragmatic contribution to law enforcement agencies. This contribution was in the form of a crime analysis system in which the main thrust was clearly a Spatial one. These two works actually complement each other: Amir discusses the purely socio- logical aspects of the crime while Pyle's focus, although very general and superficial, pertains to some of the spatial aspects of the crime. The function of these works and others in the review of pertinent literature will be to extract the specific criminological, socio- logical, and victimological attributes of the crime and place them in a spatial framework. General Implications An analysis of rape in Denver, Colorado for the time period, July 1, 1970 - June 30, 1972, yielded four significant facts: (1) sixty percent of the 956 rapes occurred in two areas: one area 12 13 contiguous to the CBD and another in Northeast Denver. The commonality between the areas is they have the highest concentration of single women; (2) Seventy-six percent of the victims were single; (3) Fifty- three percent of the victims were between the ages of 16-34.1 Over two-thirds of the sex offenses occurred in older homes that had been converted to apartments.2 These facts, converted into simple geographic implications, define a social space composed of young single females who reside in a morphological space of older apartments or multi-family dwellings. Such comprehensive, but general information, is not available in published sources for other cities. Thus, information on rape in terms of marital status, site of rape, and definition of victim and offender origin in social geOgraphic space are essentially non-existent. This situation can be attributed to the novelty of rape as an academic interest in general and of geographic interest in particular. However, some comparisons with other cities can be made, but the time periods of the studies vary considerably. John Macdonald in his Rape Offenders and Their Victims analyzed 200 rapes in the city of Denver for 1968-1969. He concluded that the majority of the victims were single women; only 25 percent were married. Macdonald found the age group of 15-24 years comprised fifty percent of the victims while eighty percent of the victims were under thirty-five years of age. Although the author did not designate the rapes in social space, the number of rapes in the home comprised 33 percent.3 Menachem Amir's comprehensive study of Philadelphia produced somewhat parallel results although the time frame for this study examined all the rape incidents for 1958-1960. Amir noted a somewhat l4 consistent age pattern of the victims: fifty-six percent were in the age range of 15-29 years of age while eighty percent of the victims were below 34 years of age. The statistics for marital status indicate a strong bias towards the never—married victim. Amir classifies those victims below the legal consent age for marriage as dependents. Thus, dependent and single victims comprise 69.27 percent of the total. Amir concluded that the most prominent rape site was the residence of the victim or offender while an ecological bias was said to be in areas with a high concentration of black population.4 The generality of predominant age groups are verified in studies conducted by individual city police departments (Columbus, 1974; DesMoines, 1974; Detroit, 1974; and Memphis, 1974). Although marital status was not reported in these studies, one could conclude that the predominance of the 15-29 and under 34 year age groups would infer a bias towards the single or never-married victim. The absence of a common reference to the spatial or areal patterns of rape incidents makes accounts of the types of rape sites (e.g., residence, park, alley, etc.) useless since no generalizations as to the relative location can be made. However, in Pyle's work, a more exact spatial definition of rape was revealed. The two tracts which had the majority of the 1971 Akron rape incidents were immediately north of the business district and in the lower westside of the city defined as areas of urban transition, poor housing, and high net population density.5 The previously discussed information exhibits two faults besides the aspatial orientation: (1) the information is too general to view rape in a spatial-crime specific framework and (2) the 15 information implies that the crime is static; hence, no spatial or social variations. The literature review will now turn to those elements which imply a dynamism in the crime. The Modus Operandi The first dynamic element in rape is the modus operandi (MO) or method of operation of the offender. The MO is basically a collection of information pertaining to the characteristics and the methods employed by an offender. Literature pertaining to this information organization scheme first appeared in 1913 in England. A short time later, the modus operandi was established in the U.S. and modified for implementation . . . . . 6 by August Vollmer, former Ch1ef of Pol1ce 1n Berkeley, Ca11forn1a. However, the scale of the modus operandi is at the individual level since the objectives of the information collection are: 1. identifying a perpetrator by naming suspects whose modus operandi in past crimes fit the facts of the crime being investigated, 2. linking an unknown perpetrator for the purpose of structuring the identity of a suspect from the modus operandi and leads from several connected crimes, 3. storing data on unsolved crimes according to modus operandi to allow comparison with the crime technique of an apprehended criminal and to connect unsolved crimes with an arrestee. The modus operandi is a highly deductive process whereby the generalities of a crime incident are sorted according to specific pecu- liarities. Among the information collected in a Modus Operandi are items 19ertaining to: (l) stolen property descriptors; (2) physical description of the offender; (3) apparent motives for the commission of the crime; (4) time of occurence; (5) peculiar acts performed by the offender; 16 and (6) observed peculiarities in terms of personal idiosvncracies and Speech'characteristics.8 These MO elements appear totally aspatial. but there are other elements in a modus operandi with strict geographic connotations. This sort of information is characteristic of many crimes, but in rape, it is imperative in understanding the spatial variation of the crime. Generally, the rapists will select either a particular environ- ment or scene to commit the crime or will choose a particular victim who displays signs of vulnerability.9 In the former case, an offender selects a particular site as a victim source (e.g., parking lots in shopping centers or hospitals). In the latter situation, an offender may attack a woman with certain characteristics (e.g., age, race, or social class) or select a particular victim beforehand and follow her until the opportunities are optimal for the attack.10 In either case, what constitutes the scene for one rapist may be a victim selection site for another rapist, and both offenders are waiting for the opportunity to initiate the offense. Regardless of the site, or victim selection methods of operation, the geographic implications are obvious: (I) defining space occupied by victims in the high risk age and marital status group and (2) defining space which is occupied by those land uses which attract great volumes of potential victims through their normal activities of journey to work or school or shopping; or (3) defining Space occupied by land uses which enhance the isolation needed for the commission of the act (e.g., vacant lands and recreational or open Space). However, the implication must not be made that rape will occur as soon as there is an encounter between the victim and offender. 17 Crime Scenes Menachim Amir, in his Patterns in Forcible Rape, developed a series of scenes or locations in a rape event which imply the victims and offenders have some prior social interaction before the offense or the offender moves the victim to a location more conducive to the commission of the crime.11 A rape incident, according to Amir, can be composed of three separate and distinct scenes, locations, or sites: (1) initial meeting place; (2) the crime scene; and (3) the after scene.12 The initial meeting place is essentially the location where the victim meets the offender. The crime scene is the place where the actual rape takes place while the after scene is the place where the offender leaves the victim. A rape can be very immobile where the initial meeting place fulfills the function of all three scenes. Or a rape can be very mobile where all three scenes are separate and distinct locations.13 The initial meeting place is a primary concern in understanding rape in a sociological, psychological, or geographic perspective. As previously stated, {he initial meeting place is where the victim and offender meet. Amir relates the importance of the initial meeting place: The place of meeting and initial interaction can be seen by the would-be offender as a favorable "signal," and can instill in him some "ideas" about the possibility of having the would-be victim accept his suggestions and advances for sexual relations, or of subjecting her by force to such relations. The circumstances of the initial interaction allows the offender to assess the risks which he takes by forcing his intentions upon the woman. He must also decide whether or not he can do it at the same place or whether he must arrange a situation which will offer more security in executing his plan.14 18 Thus, the kind of initial meeting place and time will be indicative of the further movements of the victim and offender. Hence, the rapist who breaks into a victim's apartment may find the site amenable for the initial meeting place, crime scene, and after scene while the rapist who picks up a female hitchhiker at a busy intersection must move the scene, thus move the victim to an environment more isolated and con- ducive to the crime. Thus, the initial meeting place can be assumed to be part of the offender's method of operation (MO). Essentially, this is the method or type of site the offender uses to approach or meet his victim. Amir was able to develop a typology of initial meeting places which partially imply the victim's situation or activity at the time of the meeting. (Table 2.1). Table 2.l--Amir's Initial Meeting Place Types. Initial Meeting Place Number Percent 1. At her home or place 171 26.4 2. Where victim stayed, not home or place 52 .2 3. At offender's home 43 6.7 4. On the street walking 270 41.8 5. In a bar 50 7.8 6. At a party or picnic 17 2.6 7. In the park 5 0.7 8. In front of a bar 22 3.4 9. On the street waiting for a car or bus 16 2.4 Source: Amir, 1971, p. 139. 19 Although Amir referred to the initial meeting place as "spatial cate- gories," they were not tied to or placed in geographic space. Thus, the false implication can be made that each park or street have the same probability for victimization. Amir developed a typology of crime scenes or locations but parallelism with the typology of initial meeting places is totally absent in number and Specificity. Table 2.2 displays Amir's four crime scene categories with the number and percent of the total rapes which occurred in each crime scene. Table 2.2--Amir's Crime Scene Types. Crime Scene Number Percent 1. Auto 96 14.9 2. Open Spaces 115 17.8 3. Indoors--Outside participant's residence 75 11.6 4. Indoors-~participant's residence 360 55.7 Total 646 100.0 Source: Amir, 1971, p. 146. Like the initial meeting place typology, Amir's crime scenes are over- generalized and most importantly, the crime scenes are not defined in geographic space. The comparison between Table 2.1 and Table 2.2 shows that the most vulnerable meeting place is one where the victim is walking on the Street (41.8%). Amir included the categories of "waiting for a bus or taxi" and "in front of a bar" to increase the percentage to forty-eight.15 Macdonald's study of Denver parallels Amir's in the 20 assertion that the street is the predominant meeting place (48.9%).16 In Table 2.2, the classification "indoors-~participant's residence" was the prominent crime scene in Amir's study (55.7%); Macdonald again supported this fact with 54.5 percent of Denver's 22 rapes occurring in the same category.17 By now, the implication should be clear that rape is not a single site phenomenon. The act itself involves a single site but the interactive processes between the victim and offender may encompass more than one site with a high probability of these sites contained in different social spaces. However, the third scene (i.e., the after scene) was minutely explored by Amir and has been neglected in other studies. The cause of this situation can be attributed to a small number of cases encountered by Amir involving an after scene (31). In twenty-one of the cases, the victim was returned to the initial meeting place, while in five cases, she was taken home, and in another five cases the victim was left in a remote spot.18 Victim-Offender Relationship The interpersonal relationship between the victim and offender plays a significant role in the classification of the crime. Thus, the degree of intimacy or anonymity between the participants is integral in classifying the crime according to its severity as a police and public problem. The degree of intimacy between the parti- cipants is also integral in identifying the culpability of the parti- cipants and is related to the potential of a successful prosecution. Essentially, social interaction differentiates between a crime problem in which the police play an important role in its A _ 21 suppression and a social problem involving a crime in which the police have a low probability of successful suppression and consequential prosecution. A rape between total strangers has a greater potential of becoming a public threat and presents the police with much more investigative work. But when the criminal is apprehended, the proba- bility of a successful prosecution is much greater. By the simple fact that little or no social interaction occurs between the partici- pants in the stranger rape presents the police and public with a crime problem. This situation can be interpreted as one where the offender has the potential to replicate the offense on another victim. Therefore, the offender establishes a definite method of Operation in terms of type of initial meeting place, approach to the victim, time of occurrence, and type of victim (age—race).19 These characteristics of the method of operation are trans- formed into information utilized by the police to expedite the apprehension of the criminal by attempting to predict his next offense. This information is further utilized as crime prevention information which is disseminated to the public. Thus, the public is warned of potentially vulnerable situations, times, and types of places (again not defined in geographic space). Because of minimal social interaction between the participants, it is alleged that these kinds of rapes will result in successful prosecution because it is assumed there is no complicity on the part of the victim.2 A rape between friends and family presents a different inter- pretation of the crime. Firstly, rapes between participants of long established intimate relationships do not present the public with a 22 crime problem nor can the police prevent them. For them, the investi- gative proCess is not as tedious and extensive because the victim knows her assailant. Secondly, the probability of a successful prosecution is reduced because of the suspicion of complicity and consent by the victim. The exception is the incest rape which is a commission of one of the most heinous social taboos. The incest case is actually deemed more serious than rape.21 The implication is rather clear as anonymity is maximized between the participants, the severity of the rape increases for both the police and the public. Thus, rape among persons of long-established intimate relationships is more of a social problem incorporating a criminal act than it is a widespread criminal problem. Amir developed seven victim-offender relationships to cate- gorize the Philadelphia rape incidents. Table 2.3 presents the cate- gories and percentages of the 646 incidents apprOpriate for each category. Amir's victim-offender relationship (VOR) categories are based on degree of social anonymity or intimacy. Although this classification scheme has served as the VOR base for other studies (Chappell, 1971; Macdonald, 1971; Olson G Stiers, 1974), specific modifications were made for this research. Moreover, this victim- offender relationship issue will be thoroughly explained in the methodological section. Although the importance of the stranger variety of rape has been expressed, the magnitude of its occurence dispels the myths that reported rapes are one of the extremes of Stranger or friends. However, different studies have shown a predominance of the stranger 23 Table 2.3--Amir's Victim-Offender Relationship Categories. Category Percent l. Stranger--no previous contact existed and no acquain- tanceship established before the offense. 42.3 2. Stranger but general knowledge--offender is known visually to the victim without any other contact between them. 9.6 3. Acquaintance--offender becomes known to victim just before the offense, or she has some prior knowledge about his residence, place of work, name or nickname, but no Specific relationship exists between them. 14.4 4. Neighbor--close neighbor, or victim saw the offender before and crossed his way many times. 19.3 5. Close friend or boy friend--offender often in victim's home or dated with her, or having close, direct, or frequent relationship with her. 6.0 6. Family friend--offender is friend of one of victim's family members, often at their home, trusted. 5.3 7. Offender is a family relative--relationship by consan- quinity or legal affinity, but not husband—wife or any type of incestuous relationship. 2.5 Source: Amir, 1971, p. 233. variety of the crime. Amir's Philadelphia study noted the stranger rape accounted for 51.9 percent of the total 646 incidents.22 Macdonald's survey of Denver (1968-1969) found Sixty percent of the incidents were of the Stranger variety.23 Moreover, Olson 8 Stiers later study of Denver (July 1, 1970 - June 30, 1972) revealed that 67.1 percent of 602 rape cases were of the Stranger variety.24 The predominance of the stranger variety was revealed in comparative studies of Boston and Los Angeles with 56 and 91 percent of the rapes of the Stranger variety respectively.25 24 A recently completed national survey of 208 police departments revealed that the proportion of the stranger variety rapes ranged between 57.5 and 63.6 percent.26 Thus, a majority of the reported rapes are of the stranger variety, but this does not negate the importance of other victim-offender relationships. Number of Offenders The number of offenders in a rape incident is another scheme for differentiating the crime. Not only does the number of offenders complicate the legal process in terms of ascertaining liability and conspiracy, but according to Lt. Katherine Lesney of the Detroit Police Department Sex Crimes Analysis Squad, "a rape with more than one offender actually constitutes a rape with multiple weapons."27 Essen- tially, the more offenders in a rape, the more potential force and violence to be implemented to neutralize the victim. However, the number of offenders also has other social and spatial ramifications. The literature seems to be somewhat consensual in relation to a typology of rape based on the number of offenders. The offender groupings are; (1) single rape; (2) pair rape; and (3) multiple rape. Logically, a Single rape involves one offender; pair rape is two offenders and multiple rape involves three or more offenders. The mul- tiple rapes are also known as gang rapes or group rapes. Amir noted the phenomenon of multiple rape is practiced by youthful delinquent street gangs.29 Macdonald revealed accounts of multiple rapes conducted by members of motorcycle gangs.3O Hence, both authors bring to light perpetrators which are members of gangs. 25 Macdonald differentiates the two in terms of age; motorcycle gang members are older than youthful street gang members. There are sketchy spatial inferences for the multiple offender rapes but Amir noted that there was little mobility or movement of the scenes in multiple offender rapes. Also, this type of rape was predo- minantly an encounter between strangers.31 But, Macdonald indicated that the victims of motorcycle gang rapes are seldom chance victims. Usually, these victims have sought out the company of one gang member, but the initiation rites into the gang include sexual intercourse with all the gang members.32 Race Differentials Victim age has been previously discussed, but the age of the offenders remains to be examined. Moreover, the racial Status of the offender and victim merits explanation because the potential ramifi- cations can serve as cursory measures of social conflict and spatial mobility of the criminal act itself. Amir's analysis of 1958-1960 Philadelphia rape data revealed the crime was highly intraracial. Hence, members of a specific racial group were more likely to rape or be raped by a member(s) of the same racial group. Of 646 rapes, 76.9 percent were between blacks; 16.3 percent were between whites; 3.3 percent involved a black offender and a white victim while 3.6 percent involved a white offender and a black victim.33 Although rape was highly intraracial, it should be reiterated that the majority of the victims and offenders were black; thus, biased towards a socially and economically deprived population. 26 The intraraciality and bias toward black victims and offenders was replicated in Brenda Brown's study of 1973 rape incidents for the Memphis, Tennessee Police Department. Of 534 rape cases, 67 percent were among blacks; 16 percent were among whites; .56 percent involved a white offender and a black victim while 16 percent involved a black offender and a white victim. Thus, 83 percent of the rapes were intraracial while 16.56 percent were interracial. But it must be noted that the percentage of rapes among whites and those involving a black offender and a white victim were equal.34 A conclusion of interracial rape was reached by Macdonald in his study of Denver.:55 However, Macdonald did not present clear verbal or graphic evidence of the interracial claim. In his analysis, three racial groupings were used: White, Spanish American, and Black. Table 2.4 presents a summary of the number of victims and offenders in each racial group. Table 2.4--Racial Interactions. Group Offenders Victims 1. White 89 120 2. Spanish American 86 42 3. Black 76 31 Total 251 193 Source: Macdonald, 1971, 51 and 76. The data presented in Table 2.4 depicts a definite white bias towards victims and offenders. However, Macdonald states that three 27 out of five black offenders attacked white victims.36 At this rate, only forty-five white victims were attacked by blacks. Macdonald failed in the provision of a concise picture Of the interracial trans- actions Of victims and offenders, thus he does not substantiate the interracial conclusion. Weis and Borges in their essay, "Victimology and Rape: The Case of the Legitimate Victim," argue that rape may become increasingly interracial. The basis for this prediction lies with the overall failure of society to proceed on an Optimal course for the liberaliza- tion of social contact, Opportunity, and education. Thus, increased racial conflict and hostility will result from the persistence and extension of social barriers by the majority population. Therefore, interracial rape will be one of the manifestations of social conflict.37 But it should be noted that the authors do not predict which racial group will cross the intraracial boundary. However, other speculations for the existence of interracial rape exist, Specifically, theories relating to the black offender- white victim variety. Lynn Curtis in his article "Rape, Race, and Culture: Some Speculations in Search Of a Theory," presents some alternative thoughts. Curtis deve10ps and expands the notion of black politicalization which is somewhat parallel to the position stated by Weis and Borges. However, a second explanation of social interaction is developed whereby the increasing liberalization Of white women coupled with an increase in the socio-economic Opportunities for the black male lends to an increase in social interaction. Hence, rape may be an inevitable and almost normal by-product of social change.38 28 Speculations and explanations for interracial rape involving other ethnic or racial minorities are totally absent in the literature. Thus. one questions whether the Speculations about black interracial rape are appr0priate for other minorities. Age‘Differentials The age Of the Offender is another important factor in rape. Moreover, the age disparity between the participants has been hypo- thesized (by Amir) to be indicative of specific types Of rape. Statu- tory rape is the only Offense dependent upon a legal age definition. Thus, the victim may give her consent for sexual intercourse, but she is legally defined as being under the age of consent. Amir's data of offender ages showed a definite bias towards the 15-24 age group.39 As previously stated, this is also the pre- dominant age group of the victim. Other studies concur with the pre- dominant Offender age group (Macdonald, 1971; Columbus Police Depart- ment, 1974). But Amir has been the only author to attempt to define age patterns between the participants. Although victims and Offenders were Of the same age group, Amir found that victims tended to be younger than their assailants. Consequently, the median age for Offenders was 23 years and victims, 19.6 years.40 The inference of the older the offender, the younger the victim does not contradict the assertion that a majority of the participants emanate from the 15-29 age group. Clarity is produced by examining the volume of participants and their interpersonal relationship. 29 Amir's data comprised 646 victims and 1292 offenders. Hence, a 2 to 1 ratio Of Offenders to victims enables a bias towards Offenders' age. Secondly, for almost all categories of victim-Offender relationships, victim age was within five years of the Offender age. But, the categories, family friends and relatives, demonstrated a marked bias towards the victim who was at least ten years younger than the Offender.41 Consequently, as social intimacy increases, the age disparity between the participants also increases. Amir found the general age disparities in intraracial rape were only plus or minus five years. From this inference, it was con- trived that members Of the same race have a tendency to be in the same age group.42 Age disparity in interracial rape was a different situation entirely. Of the 41 cases involving a black Offender and white victim, 18 or 43.9 percent involved a victim at least ten years Older than her assailant. In the situation of a white assailant and black victim (29 cases), 55.2 percent involved victims who were within five years of the assailant age, but 31.0 percent of the cases (9) involved a black victim who was at least ten years younger than her white assailant.43 Qualification is necessary because Amir did not express the interracial age disparities as significant (i.e., a chi-square Significance level was not Obtained). So, he was only reacting on rough percentages of distribution. Although Amir's work was largely phenomenological, one hypothesis was tested and consequently rejected. Von Hentig, in his article "The Sex Ratio," prOposed a demographic explanation for rape stating that rape is caused by a disturbed sex ratio for unmarried persons aged 15-49. Thus, rape emanates from a surplus Of 30 males who have a problem Obtaining sexual partners.44 Amir found no significant association between sex ratio and rape. Moreover, Amir experimented with different sex ratio formulas adjusting for variation in marital status, race, and different age groups. Still no signifi- . . 45 cant assoc1at1ons were encountered. Crime, Distance, and Movement There is a complete literary void referencing the degree Of social interaction or interpersonal relationship between the participants with spatial factors. Some relationship categories develOped by Amir imply variations in movement and distance. Although conjectural, the categories of neighbor, close friend of boy friend, family friend and relative denote a minimal number of scenes in the crime. Yet, the category neighbor, denotes close spatial proximity, but the possibility exists that persons who are neighbors are also strangers. This hypothetical situation would occur in areas of high transiency, multi-family dwelling units, and renter occupied housing. This kind of area is one where social cohesion and contacts are at a minimum. Thus, this kind of area can be typified as being in a continual state of flux, change, normlessness, or anomie. The potential of rapes between strangers who are Spatially defined as neighbors would suggest an inverse relationship between Spatial distance and social intimacy. While concepts such as distance, movement, and spatial inter- action may be totally under the purview of the geographer, it is very interesting to note that sociologists and criminologists were 31 interested in such concepts long before Keith Harries' macroscale article on the ”Geography Of American Crime, 1968."46 Otto Erlanson, in 1946, examined the relationship between the scene of the crime and the residence of the sex offender in Chicago. He concluded that 87 percent of the sex Offenders lived in the neigh- borhood of their offense.47 The areal units he analyzed were the Chicago Police Districts. Thus, they were defined as the offender's neighborhood, but the districts had different areal dimensions. Thus, his conclusion was a fallacy. However, the work is significant, because the author was a lieutenant in the Chicago Police Department. In 1932, White measured the distance between the residence of the offender and the scene of the crime in Indianapolis. White found the mean distance for crimes against the person was .85 miles. The mean distance for crimes against property was 1.72 miles. The mean distance for rape was 1.52 miles (11 cases). Consequently, White con- cluded that crimes against the person are crimes against neighbors.48 Eleven rape cases hardly yields a valid generalization. Amir developed a criminal mobility triangle to measure the vicinity of offender's and victim's residence to the location of the crime. Vicinity as defined by the author denotes an area of five city blocks.49 The usage and validity of this areal dimension is based on the assumption: That this area is small enough to allow offenders or victims at least to see each other and perhaps even for the offender to have specific knowledge of the victim's reputation.”50 Nevertheless, Amir develOped four mobility categories based on vicinity or area denoting an area of five blocks: 32 l. Offender lives in area of Offense only not victim's residence. 2. Offender lives in victim's vicinity but rape committed elsewhere. 3. Offender lives in vicinity of victim and offense. 4. Offender lives not in vicinity of victim or offense.51 Although Amir's assumption of the validity of the five block area is questionable, he did uncover some interesting results. Of 1292 - offenders, 606 were classified in the third category. However, 557 of the offenders in this category were involved in black intraracial rapes. Of 704 known black intraracial rape Offenders, the third cate— gory signifies over seventy percent of the black Offenders lived within five blocks of the victim's residence and the crime scene.52 Therefore, evidence of restricted mobility is present because the majority of the white intraracial events were classified in the fourth or most mobile category. Amir's examination of the mobility exhibited in gang or multiple offender rapes implied minimal movement of the participants. The majority of these rapes entailed the street as the initial meeting place which in turn also served as the crime scene. Moreover, the crime scene, victim's residence, and the offender's residences were all within a five block area.53 The spatial inference of minimal movement and close proximity of participants' residences transforms to a social space occupied by delinquent gangs defined by social disorganization, poverty, blight, and located near the central business district.54 Boggs defined rape as a crime of circumstance. By this classi- fication, rape is an event where the offender perceives the situation as favorable for its commission. Boggs also asserted that rape did not 33 show a bias throughout the social structure and the offenders were not residents of the same social areas of the crime.55 Bogg's work must be questioned however because of her reliance on rape incidents and rape arrest Statistics by census tracts. Thus, the inter-connec- tions of movement were generalized and not measured. Gerald Pyle, a geographer, attempted to measure the distance traveled by the Offender to the crime scene. Pyle found the average distance traveled by a rape offender was 1.34 miles.56 However, certain methodological problems appear in the text. The distance measurements were derived from the trips of nineteen arrested rape suspects. Pyle, unlike most researchers, did measure the significance of the movements of Offenders among ecological areas. Because of the small number of offenders, Pyle was only able to generalize that areas characterized by inhabitants with above average financial resources imported more than one-third (36.8 percent) of the rapists. Moreover, census tracts averaging a thirty percent non-white population exported more than a third of the rape suspects.57 White and Pyle attempted to measure the distance traveled by the sex Offender to the crime scene. Although the scarcity of cases leads one to contemplate their validity for theory construction, the importance of distance and movement has long been recognized by police Officials. Moreover, a recent publication by National Institute of Law Enforcement and Criminal Justice emphasizes the importance of sex crime units to maintain an offender modus operandi file based on geographic area. The justification is that rapists do not necessarily restrict . . . 58 their attacks to a 11m1ted area but may move about. 34 The literary coverage of rape and associative phenomena have provided some social and spatial inferences that will be incorporated into this research. But many common deficiencies emanate from the literature. First, with the exception of Pyle, none of the authors attempted to place rape in urban geographic space. Secondly, with the exception of Amir and Macdonald, the remaining authors did not discuss the variations in rape by method of operation, victim-offender relation- ship, and other factors. Amir's mobility categories considered proximity of the victim's residence, offender's residence, and the crime scene, but he did not include the initial meeting place which is ironical because of the importance he placed on the initial meeting place. None of the authors addressed the issues of social and spatial change. Many have used Amir's work for their conceptual foundation, but Amir's data are from the time period 1958-1960. Since this time, society has experienced a multitude of changes and conflicts. But mobility categories and Spatial-social change are subordinate to another rarely discussed issue of rape--the number of offenses one offender commits before he is apprehended. Open, Single, and Series Offenders The real substantive question about rape is why some cases are Open (offender unknown or not apprehended) and Others are closed (offender known and/or apprehended)? Furthermore, the closed cases can be divided into two distinct classifications: (1) single event-- offender commits only one offense and then is apprehended; and (2) series--offender commits two or more rapes before he is apprehended. 35 The series Offender has been a critical concern of law enforcement agencies. A report by the Detroit Police Department found that during the first six months of 1974, 24 offenders were responsible for 120 rape incidents.59 Another report from a police department asserts that series rapes are the least difficult to prevent Since series rapists tend to work in a limited area. Thus, the saturation of the area with patrols would lessen the offender's expectation of a successful crime.6 The report did not present any empirical evidence to support this assumption. Moreover, the goal appeared to be prevention or deterence and not apprehension. The question of series or repeat Offenders and apprehension is discussed in an extensive work by the National Institute of Law Enforcement and Criminal Justice. The first important assertion from this report is lack of antecedent research on the subject of series repeat offenders. According to the report: "Whether or not rape is usually a crime of repeaters (there are no definitive studies on this issue), it is known at least some individual rapists commit multiple offenses."61 The modus Operandi was mentioned as a very good investigative tool for identifying repeaters Simply because each offender has an individual method of Operation. This report also mentioned a strategy for apprehension of a .series Offender. The strategy was that the police stake-out of areas :and the deployment of decoys. The reason for this is that it is :assumed that an offender makes repeated attacks in a small geographic errea using a similar method of Operation.63 36 In the previous discussion, there were references to geographic space. Although they were poorly qualified and quantified, it indirectly defines the series offenders as geographically distinct. One of the main thrusts of this research is the spatial-social differ- ences between these three offender status groups. Conclusions The literature has indicated that rape is not simply a forced sexual encounter between a man and a woman. Instead, rape is dynamic and has many variable attributes. The many relationships and social patterns identified by scholars such as Amir are credible, but their potential significance could be enhanced if they are measured geographically. Notes to Chapter II 1Olson and Stiers, Rape, 1974, pp. 4 a 12. 2James Selkin, "Rape," Psychology Today, Volume 8, Number 8 (January 1975), pp. 70-74. 3John Macdonald, Rape Offenders and Their Victims (Springfield, Illinois: Charles C. Thomas Publishers, 1971), pp. 32 7 77. 4Menachem Amir, Patterns in Forcible Rape (Chicago: The Uni- ‘versity of Chicago Press, 1971), pp. 52, 68, 149, 337. sGerald F. Pyle et al., The Spatial Dynamics of Crime, Univer- sity of Chicago, Department of Geography Research Paper Number 159 (Chicago: University Of Chicago, 1974), pp. 65 G 122. 6John J. Horgan, Criminal Investigation (New York: McGraw-Hill Book Company, 1974), p. 61. 37 7Paul B. Weston and Kenneth M. Wells, Criminal Investigation: Basic PersPectiveS (Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey: Prentice-Hall, Inc., 1970), p. 104. 8Charles E. O'Hara, Fundamentals of Criminal Investigation, 2nd ed. (Springfield, Illinois: Charles C. Thomas Publishersjfil97l), pp. 597-598. 9Selkin, 1975, p. 72. 10Macdonald, 1971, pp. 57-58. 11Amir, 1971, p. 38. 121bid., p. 38. 13Ibid., p. 137. 141bid., p. 138. 15 Ibid., p. 138. 16Macdonald, 1971, p. 32. 171bid., p. 33. 18Amir, 1971, p. 23. 19George A. Buck et al., Police Crime Analysis Unit Handbook (Washington, D.C.: Law Enforcement Assistance Administration, 1973), p. 39. 2OAmir, 1971, pp. 29—231. 211bid., pp. 29—231. 221bid., p. 234. 23Macdonald, 1971, p. 29. 24Olson 6 Stiers, 1973, p. 13. stuncan Chappell et al., "Forcible Rape: A Comparative Study of Offenses Known to Police in Boston and Los Angeles," in Studies in the Sociology of Sex, James M. Henslein, ed. (New York: Appleton- Century Crofts, 1971), pp. 169-170. 26Duncan Chappell et al., Forcible Rape: A National Survey of the Responses by Police. Police Volume 1 (Washington, D.C.: National Institute of Law Enforcement and Criminal Justice, March 1977), p. 22. 27Interview, September 16, 1975. 28Amir, 1971, p. 182. 291bid., p. 185. 30Macdonald, 1971, p. 167. 38 31Amir, 1971, pp. 344 and 346. 32Macdonald, 1971, p. 167. 33Amir, 1971, pp. 44-45. 34Brenda A. Brown, "Crime Against Women Alone: Systems Analysis of MP0 Sex Crime Squad's 1973 Rape Investigations," mimeographed (Memphis, Tennessee: Memphis Police Department, 1974), p. 40. 35Macdona1d, 1971, p. 51. 36Ibid., p. 51. 37Kurt Weis and Sandra S. Borges, "Victimology and Rape: The Case of the Legitimate Victim, Issues in Criminolog , Volume 8, Number 2 (Fall, 1973), p. 108. 38Lynn Curtis, "Rape, Race, and Culture: Some Speculations in Search Of a Theory," in Marcia Walker and Stanley L. Brodsky, eds., Sexual Assault: The Victim and the Rapist (Lexington, Massachusetts: 0. C. Heath and Company, 1976), pp. 128-129. 39Amir, 1971, p. 52. 401bid., p. 52. 41Ibid., p. 238. 421bid., p. 57. 431bid., p. 57. 44 p. 448. Hans Von Hentig, "The Sex Ratio," Social Forces, 30 (1951), 45Amir, 1971, p. 339. 46Keith D. Harries, "The Geography of American Crime, 1968,” The Journal of Geography 70 (April 1971):204-213. 47Otto A. Erlanson, "The Scene of Sex Offenses," Journal of Criminal Law and Criminology 31 (1966):340. 48Charles White, "The Relation of Felonies to Environmental Factors in Indianapolis," Social Forces, 10 (1932), p. 511. 49Amir, 1971, p. 91. SOIbid., p. 91. Sllbid., p. 92. 5 53 2Ibid., p. 92. Ibid., p. 344. 54See C. R. Shaw and H. P. McKay, Delinquency Area (Chicago, IlliJmfisz University of Chicago Press, 1929) and Frederic M. Thrasher, TTue Gang (Chicago, Illinois: The University of Chicago Press, 1927). 39 55Sarah Lee Boggs, "The Ecology of Crime Occurrence in St. Louis: A Reconceptualization of Crime Rates and Patterns" (Ph.D. dissertation, Washington University, 1964), p. 80. 56Gerald Pyle et al., 1974, p. 150. 57Ibid., p. 108. 58Lisa Brodyaga et al., Rape and Its Victims: A Report for Citizens, Health Facilities and Criminal Justice (Washington, D.C.: National Institute of Law Enforcement, 1975), p. 46. 59Women's and Children's Service Section, ”Rape A Brief Profile," mimeographed (Detroit, Michigan: Detroit Police Department, 1974), p. 11. 6OLt. Herman Stofle, "Rape Reduction Program," mimeographed, (Columbus, Ohio: Columbus Police Department, January 1974), p. 29. u. 61Brodyaga et al., 1975, p. 45. 621bid., p. 45. 631bid., p. 47. CHAPTER III DATA AND METHODOLOGY Theoretical Framework Victimization Inferences The placement of rape in a geographic framework requires that the explanatory process begin with a theoretical base that emphasizes the spatial characteristics of one of the most important components of the crime. The victim has been selected as this component. From the literature, some tentative generalizations about the victim emerge: (1) she is young (IS-29 years); (2) she is dependent or single or never married; (3) she is usually of lower occupational status; (4) her resi- dence is usually an apartment which is Often converted from a single family dwelling; (5) she lives in an area with a high concentration of single adults; (6) her residential area, in some studies, has been one undergoing racial transition; and (7) the sexual assault usually occurs in her residence, but the predominant initial meeting place has been the street. Thus, the Spatial patterns of the rape victim can be explained by the Spatial variation of the social structure. The Family Life Cycle The relationship between spatial variation and social structure is linked to the concept of life cycle or stage in the family life 40 41 cycle. The antecedent label of urbanization was coined by Shevky-Bell in their concept of Social Area Analysis. The concept referred to the delineation of urban sub-areas by three dimensions: (1) social rank; (2) urbanization; and (3) ethnicity. The urbanization dimension pertains to the alteration of the traditional family unit because of an increase in the scale of society and changes in productivity. The products of these processes are the decline in the importance of primary production and the dissolution of the family as the basic economic unit. Thus, non-familial production centers in the city and the impact on the family is reflected by differences in fertility rates and the number of females in the labor force.1 The dimension of urbanization was later refined conceptually and methodologically by sociologists and geographers alike. Thus, the new labels of life cycle or Stage in the family cycle emerged, but the concept reflected the more specific processes of intraurban mobi- lity, residential behavior, and space consumption dependent on the status and size of the family.2 Peter D. Salin's article, "Household Location Patterns in American Metropolitan Areas," clarifies the concept of stage in the family life cycle: One can think of each family as passing through a series of stages. The "family formation" Stage occurs when the grown children of an established family leave the parental household and set up house- holds of their own, either as Single individuals or upon marriage. After marriage, the new family passes through a "child rearing" stage as children are born and raised to maturity. After its children grow up and form their own families, the original family passes through a state of ”attrition" until the death of the remaining household members terminates the original family. 42 The spatial expressions of the stages in the family life cycle are theoretically supposed to conform to the Burgess Concentric Zone model of urban growth. Thus, the assumption of a single urban center based on differential accessibility is imperative in the model.4 The assumptions in the evolution of the stages in the family life cycle include a temporal increase in income and a progressive increase in family Size up to a point in time where size begins to decline.5 The combination of these assumptions would suggest a theo- retical model in which the family formation stage would exhibit a spatial pattern of high density occupance in close proximity to the urban center. Thus, maximization of accessibility is the overriding theme in order to compensate for a lower income. But as family size and income increase, the spatial patterns move outward from the single focus in a zonal mode because space needs become of primary importance instead of accessibility. In order to explain the spatial dynamics of rape, it is essen- tial to understand the spatial variation of the stages in the family life cycle. Requirements of Specificity stipulate an understanding of the space occupied by persons in the family formation stage, because the age groups of the reported victims would seem to imply this situation. Thus, high potential victim areas would have the same characteristics as the Space occupied by persons in the family formation stage. Namely, they are: (l) multi-family dwellings or apartments; (2) renter occupance; (3) lower incomes; (4) unmarried or childless people; (5) solo parents (separated, divorced, or unmarried); (6) the once married but now separated, divorced, or widowed; and (7) short occupancy or transiency. 43 The connection between the family formation stage of the life cycle and rape victimization implies an emphasis on the spatial behavior and patterns of the female. However, little concrete research has pertained to the specific spatial dynamics of female behavior. But implications do exist and can be justly inserted in this theoretical framework. The alleged job and wage discrimination of women implies certain restrictions on spatial mobility. On the regional scale, Morrill implied that women employed in the industrial sector lie within the lowest wage occupations.8 Thus, with limited resources, the resi— dential locational behavior of the female would appear to be restricted to areas where access to job and other activities are prime consid- erations. Their daily movements are alleged to be less frequent and shorter than males.9 Moreover, this situation in the urban area con- tributes to a smaller perceived city by the female.10 Distortions of the Life Cycle Explanation It must not be assumed that the previous discussions are individual to the female case only. The literary implication of parallel victim and offender ages does not entirely exclude the male from the same life cycle environment. Thus, the implication that the spatial patterns of rape can be explained by the spatial variations in the female social structure is only partially true. The literature review indicates that rape is variant and can be differentiated by many criteria. Other Explanatory Phenomena Although most rapes occur in the victim residence, this does not negate the importance of rapes in other types of sites. Moreover, 44 Amir has indicated that while the predominant crime scene was the residence, the predominant initial meeting place was on the Street. Hence, a hard inference of movement is presented which implies space that is used by the victim. This can be translated into different land uses; land uses which generate large volumes of potential victims and offenders (e.g., employment and shopping areas) and land uses which are conducive to the commission of the crime (e.g., parks, Open space, and vacant land). But the space occupied combined with the space routinely traversed by the victim will still only partially explain the spatial variation of rape. Major Rape Variations The phenomenon of black intraracial rape implies that all the locational attributes of the crime (victim and Offender residence, initial meeting place, crime scene, and after scene) have high proba- bility of displaying a pattern in constricted space. This is because black residential occupance is confined to restricted space more for- mally known as the ghetto.11 The same assumption can hold true for the case of Mexican-American intraracial rape. The literature revealed that victims and offenders come from the same general age group (IS-29). But Amir noted that generally, the younger the victim, the older the assailant. Some victim-offender relationship categories can partially explain this phenomenon, but the less intimate relationships would not explain an age disparity alone. Age has its own spatial variation throughout the urban area and the concept of "Family Life Cycle" implies this variation.12 To reiterate, victims and offenders come from the same general age group, but 45 offenders are usually Older than their victims. Considering only the less intimate relationships, the offender who rapes a young middle or high school victim would imply a certain amount of movement on one of the participants. Since the Space of offender source (early family formation) is distinct from the space occupied by the victim (child rearing Stage), it is apparent that some intervening variable is responsible for the explanatory voids. The Criminal Career as the Spatial Process The criminal career or simply the offender's status is the explanatory variable which fills in the grey areas. Information (facts or knowledge) about a rape incident is essentially what differentiates the offender status groups of: (1) open; (2) single event; and (3) series. The literature has revealed that the series group possesses distinct geographic information in the form of repeated attacks in a small area. Moreover, these repeated assaults are qualified by criminological information in the sense that the methods of operation are similar or identical. It is logical to assume that the criminological information pertaining to the Single event Offender would be the more intimate victim-offender relationships. Thus, when the victim reports the crime, the police know who to apprehend and interview. It is also logical to assume that the Open offender status group is such because there is not enough tangible geographic or criminological information to identify a suspect. Thus, the 46 assumption is that the Offender status groups are a function of different geographical and criminological variables. Conclusion Many spatial and criminological factors contribute to the overall explanation of the spatial variation of rape, but explanation can be obtained on two resolution levels. The first level, a general one, Obtains explanation by determining the associations of rape as an aggregate with general measures of urban spatial structure. The second level, a more Specific one, Obtains explanation by first dis- aggregating rape into categories of offender status followed by the- quantity and quality Of the spatial-criminological variables associated with each category. The two levels of explanation are complementary. The first level defines the general spatial framework or setting while the second level identifies the Specific relationships occuring in the general Spatial framework. The Research Hypotheses The theoretical framework implies that the explanation for the spatial variation of rape depends on the variables representative of the life cycle. Moreover, distortions and exceptions to the life cycle explanation have been identified as land uses which attract large volumes of potential victims and racial residential segregation. Thus, it is inferred that rape has a multivariate explanation. The life cycle theoretical construct generates three inter- related research hypotheses: 47 Hypothesis l.—-The spatial variation of rape can be explained by the spatial variation of the family life cycle and land use struc- ture. Moreover, the explanation will be valid for different time periods. Hypothesis 2.--The greater the age disparity between the victim and offender, the greater the absolute distance between the partici- pant's residences. This hypothesis is only valid in the case of the rapes involving less intimate relationships. Hypgthesis 3.--The absolute distance between the residences of the participants in intraracial rapes will be less than interracial rapes. The fourth research hypothesis differs from the previous three which are testing general relationships of rape. This hypothesis deals with specific relationships of rape. Hypothesis 4.--Significant social and spatial differences emerge when rape is examined within a framework based on the criminal-offender status. There are many other hypotheses which could be constructed and tested, but these four are the beginning in terms of determining and explaining the geographic characteristics and significance in a crime- specific situation such as rape. The Study_Area 'The Problems of Choosing an Ideal Research Site The ideal research Site had to be a city with a large volume (of rape complaints, because the literature review indicates the 48 different classification schemes for rape. It was desirable to obtain a substantial frequency of each rape type. However, a large volume and a substantial number are rather ambiguous since no other author or agency has differentiated rape to the degree intended in this research. Two issues were faced in Obtaining a research site. First, the research had to be conducted in one political unit. It is obviously false to assume that rape and crime in general are restricted to political boundaries, but the probability of obtaining the co- operation Of all the law enforcement agencies in a metropolitan area was questionable. Secondly, and most important, the variables to classify rape are not available to the public in a general statistical format. Thus, the researcher had to have access to the original rape reports recorded by the police. The critical issue here is the access by an outsider to highly confidential information. Several police departments and officials were presented with an annotated version of the research proposal. Several police depart- ments declined on the basis of confidentiality of information or current department workloads while other departments did not respond at all. The San Diego, California Police Department was contacted in December 1975 and within a week after the department received the prOposal, the author received a positive response. The departments' rapid response prompted the decision to accept the Site. Moreover, the research was also endorsed by the San Diego County Criminal Justice Planning Board. The City of San Diego, California, unlike many other American central cities, is growing. But a detailed description and explanation 49 of the evolution and growth of the city are not warranted for this Study. However, a brief sketch of San Diego's site, situation, economic base and population character will reveal an adequate image of the research setting. San Diego is the southern most coastal California city con- tiguous to the Mexican border. The two site assets of the city are its excellent harbor facilities and mild, sunny climate. However, the city's situational characteristics of southern location, excellent sea access, but poor overland access has relegated it to a secondary regional economic center behind the more centrally located and better accessible Los Angeles.1 The economic base of the city, in part, reflects its site assets. Today, the city's three largest sources of revenue are manu- facturing, military activities, and the visitor industry (tourism/ recreation/conventions).14 The major manufacturing concerns in San Diego are aircraft: aerospace production and electronics. It was the amenities of excellent harbors and mild climate that brought the mili- tary and the aircraft industry to the City in the 1920s. World War II and subsequent international tensions coupled with technological improvements have been responsible for the growth of the military (120,000 personnel) and the defense industry.15 Hence, San Diego's population growth and the multiplier effect on other industries have ‘been tied to the military-defense. However, in the late sixties, retail trade, services, and government employment overtook the pre- wpoaeH H m~.ma+ om.Am+ Hm.ma- mm.mH~+ .\=peo How W No mm mm He ma A66.Nev Ama.oev Aem.mev Amm.~vV Aea.AmS Am.emv pmope< A.wm+ oo.mm+ 6A.e- . me.mm- An mwm pm No o4 m we mm eouepuu Awm.wflv . Aem.HNV . Ave.aoc . - Amw.eav . - Ape.muv AA.mNS ooempmouo A4 8AH+ Ne Hm+ pm pm mm ma Haeoauepoxm SNH Av AS an . AN em Awm.wv AAm.wv AAN.oHV Ave.Av AAo.AV Am.ec oe.o~+ oo.eHH+ om.mu- mm.4~+ poeeaowea em SH mu A w A Hence mAmu SASS mAmH NASH SASS magnum II ilfln’l illu'. JI'I’..IIII-‘l‘. -1. Illll‘i‘lil 113.111. 1‘1 VIII. . Iv‘i'l- I-‘.xl'.- .mOOmum ommu xc momma popcommo onCMm mo mcoAHAOQOAQ one mvo:ODGOAm ~m===wuuaeu oo.oo co.om~+ mm mm- oo ooo+ .Aeoeo cm A A N m H Amm.wev Aoo.oev Amm.mmv Amm.HeS Aoo.opv Ae.eec umpep< oo.oo+ oo.m~+ mm.mm+ mN.mH- A5 A4 So an m e A powapau Am.omv . Aom.~ev . - Amm.mv . Aoo.mmv . - Aoo.oHV Ae.oec ooeepmpao SN oo ooeu+ 66 co co oo~+ HA aw Haeowuepoxm AS A m H A . Sauce m mAmH «ASH mAaH NASA HASH msuapm I 1'1. ‘1! .1... I‘ll n" irll I. .mspmum ommu xn momma gopcommo ofiowufioz mo meoAuuomopa paw mofiocoocogu HmsccMNH 19. 20. 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. 26. Net Density - persons/residential acre. Total Population. Percent Spanish (Latino)-SpaniSh/Total population. Percent Black - Black/Total population. Percent Children - Population Age 1 - 14/Total pOpulation. Percent Young - POpulation Age 15 - 24/Total population. Percent Late Young - Population Age 25 - 34/Total pOpulation. Percent Middle - Population Age 35 - 44/Total population. Percent Late Middle - Population Age 45 - 64/Total population. Percent Late Stage - Population Age 65 or older/Total population. Sex Ratio - Males/(Females/IOO). Young Sex Ratio - Males Age 15-34/(Females Age 15-34/100). Percent Young Female - Females Age 15-34/Total population. Percent Young Male - Males Age 15-34/Total population. Population per Household. Median Income. Lower Income - Percent households with an income less than $6,999. Lower Middle Income - Percent household with annual income between $10,000 and $14,999. Upper Income - Percent households with annual income equal to or greater than $25,000. Welfare — Percent households on public assistance. Male Unemployment - Percent males in the civilian labor force unemployed. Female Unemployment - Percent females in the civilian labor force unemployed. Males not in Labor Force - Number of males not in the labor force per 100 males in the labor force. Females not in Labor Force - Number of females not in the labor force per 100 females in the labor force. Renters - Percent of all households renting their dwelling. Dwelling Units/Structure - Percent of all housing structures with five or more dwelling units. Source: 1970 Federal Census; 1975 Special San Diego Census; and calculated by author. 67 Critical variables which were not collected in the 1975 Special Census are marital status by race-age-or sex and profession. Thus, one can only rely on gross surrogate measures such as pOpulation per household and income. Methods of Analysis Introduction Three main types of analyses are used to test the hypotheses: (1) cartographic; (2) geostatistical; and (3) statistical. Moreover, tables have been liberally used to enhance the conveyance of a specific point or generalization. Analysis of the First Hypothesis The first hypothesis which tests the spatial order or vari- ation of rape with the spatial variation of the family life cycle and land use structure entails the use of multiple-correlation and regression, specifically step-wise regression. The areal unit for this hypothesis is the census tract. The tracts for the 1975 census were aggregated into the 1970 tracts. Hence, this insured the compatibility between and among the years and totalled 149 tracts.24 The dependent variable for this hypothesis is the sum of all the rapes involving one or more offenders per census tract divided by the annual total number of rapes. Therefore, the dependent variable is simply each tract's percentage or proportion of all the rapes. The justification for this dependent variable is more appropriately dis- cussed in the hypothesis itself. Essentially, this dependent variable 68 is closer to reality since it measures the Spatial saturation of the annual volume or caseload for the police department instead of a questionable population based rate. The step-wise regression model is applied to three years (1971, 1974, 1975). These years were selected because of their relative temporal compatibility of the rape data with the census and land use information. Multiple regression was selected because of its ability to determine the mean functional linear relationship among a dependent variable and numerous independent variables. Another asset was its ability to calculate inferential values by means of the regression coefficient. The principal utility of step-wise regression is that the independent variables are rank ordered according to their explanatory . 2 power of the total variation of the dependent var1able. 5 Because multiple-regression requires that there be independence among the independent variables, a principle components analysis with a varimax rotation was conducted to reduce the thirty-four socio-economic and land use variables to six independent dimensions for both sets of data. It is assumed that variables receiving a loading of at least .50 are defining the salient Structure of the dimension.26 Therefore, each census tracts' factor score for each dimension are used as the indepen- dent variables. The procedure for selecting the six dimensions involved graphing the variances for each component and finally determining a marked break in the slope or discontinuity in the cumulative percentage of the variance.27 Following the completion of the Step-wise regression models for each of the three years, an analysis of residuals is conducted. 69 Specifically, in order to surmise the spatial accuracy of the regression models in terms of predicting the occurrence of rape with the independent variables, the standardized residuals are mapped. The standardized residuals were selected because of their limited magnitudes which . . . . 28 enhances comparisons between different t1me per1ods. The step-wise regression analyses ideally determines and provides predictor values for the spatial order of rape with the spatial variation of the family life cycle and land use structure. The test for temporal consistency would have relied on other techniques such as discriminant analyses, but problems with incompatible factor structures between 1971 and 1975 arose. Thus, the consistency through time aspect of the hypothesis will have to be described. Analysis of the Second Hypothesis The second research hypothesis deals with less intimate rapes only. It asserts that the greater the age disparity between the victims and offenders, the greater the absolute distance between the partici- pants' residences. The less intimate relationships are chosen because the family friend to family/relative relationships are infrequent and the distances insignificant. The participants' residences are expressed in Cartesian coor- dinates (X,Y) hand digitized from a San Diego atlas at a scale of 1:24000.29 Coordinates were digitized for all pertinent locations in this study. Distance throughout this study is expressed in miles, but the distance itself is not the typical straight line distance from point to Innint. Since access and movement in urban Space are, in reality, not 70 based on straight line movement, a more appropriate distance measure would take into account a directional change. Hence, the distance in this study is metropolitan distance or "Manhattan geometry."30 There- fore, the distance between two points assumes a third location or simply a right angle movement. Thus, the calculated distances are converted to miles by multiplying it by a scale factor of .378. Throughout this research, the concept of mean distance does not imply the arithmetic average. Actually, the mean distance is the geometric mean. Essentially, the distances are converted to their natural logarithmns, summed and divided by the number of Observations. The main advantage of this measure is that it is less affected by extreme quantities and it represents a more typical average.3 Although the resulting value of this procedure is in the logarithmic form, the antilogarithmn appears on all tables and within the dis- cussions throughout the text. The ages of the victims and known offenders refers to the specific five year cohort that their particular age is a member. If the victim and offender are members of the same cohort, the ages are the same. If the victim cohort is two or more less than the offender, the victim is younger. Conversely, if the victim is two or more cohorts more than the offender, the victim is older. The problem in this hypothesis is to determine if there is a significant difference in the mean distance between the age disparity groups. 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A8.- A8.- .88.. 88.- 88. .88.. .8. ...- 8.. 8.888 888 8888» .88 .N. 88.- 88.- 88.- 88.- .88.. 88.- .8. .88.. 88.- 88.- 88. 8.888 888 .8. .> > >. ... .. . _> > >. ... .. . 8A8. .A8. 4'“ «hr-lb. "I4 “LI “tut-P .- -hNflIll.fl.l.d..FIi-uFlbl.n..u Hui“Iain.“Iulfl‘h'dhffirrh-rttfldvlln."..had-““ufllzduflhfl-k. |! n 1..“ J. ..." I dill-.4 «wk-.1. .8888.8888--..8 8.888 87 distinct components of the life cycle.5 Complementing a late cycle extreme are variables pertaining to housing status, dwelling type and income: renters; structures with five or more dwelling units; multiple family dwelling units; and lower income. The family stage extreme of the dimension is reinforced with the inclusion of a parental age group (middle (35-44)) and a less weak relationship with a high income class (lower-middle income) and a residential occupance in areas with a large portion of vacant land. Factor II, 1971, Racial-Ethnic Minorities and Limited Resources Factor II is actually a departure from the life cycle theme and represents ethnicity in the antecedent Shevky-Bell Social Areas typo- logy. The major associations here are limited economic resources (i.e., welfare, lower income, male and female unemployment) and two identified minorities, Blacks and Latinos. Factor III, 1971, Youth Occupance The extremely positive loading on the young age group (15-24) coupled with the sexually differentiated mirror image (percent young males and female) indicates another stage in the life cycle.6 Moreover, the rather moderate loading on public lands is perhaps indicative of access to university or colleges, of which San Diego has eight such institutions. Factor IV, 1971, Male—Commercial Occupance Factor IV is predominantly a male dimension. The high loadings on the sex ratio variables indicate a numerical bias in terms of male presence. Further, characteristics of this male bias is a higher number 88 of persons per residential acre (net density) and an emphasis of exclu- sion from the labor force (males not in labor force). These relation— ships are further, but moderately, defined by the bias in the presence of commercial land use. Thus, this factor may be defining a skid row or elderly inner city poor and/or a fixed income group.7 Factor V, 1971, Transportation- Manufacturing Factor V is purely a land use dimension, thus indicating the spatial co-occurrence of manufacturing and transportation land uses. Factor VI, 1971, Non-working Female-- High Resources The sixth and final dimension extracted from the 1971 data can be considered a female factor. Simply, the variable females not in the labor force coupled with the moderate loading, on upper income, indicates a socio-economic group where the female does not work and does not need to. The 1975 Factor Structure The original intent of this factor ecologic-regression exercise was to compare the life cycle and land use variables for different time periods but as will be evident in the following discussion of the 1975 factor structure, there is not a one-to-one variable correspondence on factors. Thus, the possible explanation for this situation is pre- cisely three in number: (1) sampling error in one of the census surveys; (2) technical error on the part of this researcher in terms of coding the data; or (3) there were changes in the life cycle and land use in San Diego. 89 Factor I, 1975, Male--Commerica1 The first factor in the 1975 analysis pertains to male predo- minance (Table 4.1). This factor is generally like its 1971 counterpart except for some major differences. Indications of male and female unemployment have switched from the 1971 racial-ethnic minorities factor to the male-predominance factor. Thus, the major conclusion is that the unemployment of males and females has now become more predominant in the largely male - commercial areas than the previously defined minority factor. Factor II, 1975, Youth Areas Factor II in 1975 corresponds with Factor III in the 1971 factor structure. Thus, the youth associated dimension has retained its composition through the years. (Table 4.1). Factor III, 1975, Racia1-—Ethnic Minorities This factor is not congruent with the Racial — Ethnic Minori- ties - Limited Resources of the 1971 factor structure (Table 4.1). Although Blacks and Latinos are the major population groups in this factor, the only economic variable is welfare. Also, within this dimen- sion, the children variable received a moderate loading. But unlike 1971, where the children population received its highest loading on one factor, in 1975, this variable distributes itself at almost equal loadings throughout three dimensions. Thus, this dimension is referring to racial ethnic minority-welfare families. The inclusion of the children variable may also be the reason for the weak inclusion of the females not in the labor force variable. 90 Factor IV, 1975, Renters - Low Resources- Small Population Per Household This factor is differentiating between a population that rents its dwelling, usually a multi-family dwelling and has lower economic resources. A moderate portion of this population includes the late stage from a population that has higher incomes; a larger population per household; and persons in the middle stage with a moderate existence of children. Factor V, 1975, Late Stage vs. Young Family The emphasis on this factor is the differentiation between a population in the late-middle and late stage age groups and younger pOpulation (ZS-34) with children and residing in areas with large proportions of vacant land. Factor VI, 1975, Manufacturing- Commercial Land This factor is identical with the factor of the same label in 1971. The differences expressed are between transportation - manu- facturing lands and residential land uses in single family dwellings. Interpretation of Differences The apparent disparities between the factor structures for 1971 and 1975 imply a multitude of processes altering the urban structure. But the identification and localization of these processes are in themselves topics for individual and extensive investigation. Conse- quently to concentrate on these processes marks a diversion from the original purpose of this research-~The Spatial Dynamics of Rape. There is no intention to downgrade the significance or the merit of these 91 urban processes but there are more important spatial and social characteriStics of rape which need to be discussed. The Spatial Distribution of Rape: 1971, 1974 and 1975 By mapping the dependent variables for each year, some more curious relationships occur. Figures 4.1, 4.2, and 4.3 depict the Spatial distribution of each census tracts proportion of the number of rapes for 1971, 1974, and 1975. In 1971, seven tracts had over three percent of the total 109 rapes (Figure 4.1). The map seems to infer three centers for the high distributions: (1) in coastal area, two tracts 75 and 76 which are in the Ocean Beach and Mission Bay area respectively (see Figure 3.1); (2) three tracts in Central San Diego including tract 53 which is in the CBD (see Figure 3.1); and (3) two contiguous tracts on the southern border of East San Diego with the exception of a few instances, Kearny Mesa, Northern San Diego, and South San Diego are void of rape occu- rences. Although there does not seem to be any zonal characteristics to the distribution, the CBD does appear to be a sort of a hub from which sectors of contiguous tracts radiate towards the coastal areas, Eastern San Diego and Northeastern San Diego. Figure 4.2 depicting the 1974 distribution shows a rather obvious difference from 1971. The dispersion of rapes appears to have contracted from northern coastal areas. Moreover, with the exception of a few cases, Kearny Mesa, Northern San Diego, and Southern San Diego are void of rapes. Six tracts in 1974 had over three percent of the rapes. Again, one could discern three centers: (1) two tracts in the Ocean Beach area 92 a.e whamfla whu m mm. mcc.. cm.: u..nn as. mm. mo_u_ccc_z o_cz~:-_a_uez a wa. ano.. aa.c fic.e~ ac. .m. s_aena uczo> .m> eunum «as; m co. mcm.+ ua.m vn.m~ .m. cm. moUL20mox soAImcoucoa m co. ~mm.+ vw.m_ um.m_ am. am. oumgm _m_uuoesoqu~w: _ mum— vw. m~c.+ woo. nom.v_ _o. mwnm. u:_u:uomuacaz -:o_umuhomm:nuh c an. omc.. av. nm.v_ cc. wan. ooanm _amouoeeouuo_mz m mm. vac.- «a. aa.m_ ac.- am. »_meaa mane» .m> ouauw can; v RN. m~_.¢ an. um.m_ x:. cm. maou m No. nm~.. am.m vo.~_ m_. mm. mowuqco:_2 odccuuu~mqoau ~ co. New.+ am.a um.a on. em. mouu30moz so; I mcoucoz ~ vno~ om. neo.+ na.o «a.m~ co. axe. u:_.:auaaacaz Icoduauuommcmup o ... on..- om.~ uo.m~ ...- wv. mouc30moz cm“: I o_oEo; unmxcoz-:oz m no. em... an._ ac._~ m_. cv. maou v "o. num.. um.m a:.a~ 3.. vv. _:_uuoesou-o~az n so. xa~.+ ax.m u~.o_ n. on. ouaum »__saa .m> ouaumuouaa m oo. mnm.+ we.c_ we.c_ mm. mm. mouu30moz so~_em;-xuaco=m: _ .am. condudmacwdm unequamuoou Auvowcnsu Augeanzcm a :o_uc_ouuou co_~m_0cccu .oneg wouogcm uao> -u co_mmocuoz ocezcm .z o_;_u_=z o_asmm o~a_u_:z coupe; Loam ‘b..|.l|lflhuh‘u halls-nuhll‘n “n. u.u‘lh..fl"l¢.‘~nr .1...”d ......I.Iln .uhwlivudfli‘l~..u-Ihahfibflah'u.-d.~an ..II h.‘;.1 ..u .ulu~h.IINI‘.-vvhu VuhEL“.hUNI-uly .MBA: w ”wha- u—NG— ”Odor. cam Cm OLE: kc mcl—Ouufia ~fiuuflnm OSH Cm mu—Ouufln_ utfiumbmcumm "Dun—N... XLQESWIIN.V O—DGP 97 models were very poor in explaining the variation of the dependent variable. However, some very noteworthy relationships need to be mentioned. In 1971, 23.9 percent of the variation of rape was explained by the six independent variables (Table 4.2). Only three factors had significant linear relationships with the dependent variable at a .05 significance level. These three factors would seem to concur with the sketchy evidence in the literature. Thus, the interpretation of these analyses and mustering reinforcements from the literature is almost as weak as the multiple coefficients of determination (R2) resulting from the analysis. The significance of the Minority - Limited Resources would correspond with Amir's findings only to the extent that a portion of their factors includes the black population.8 Of the variables on the Late - Stage vs. Family Stage factor (Table 4.1), multiple-family dwellings and renters would have some correspondence with the conclu- sions made by Selkin in Denver with exception that in this analysis young females were not identified with this renter group. Certain variables comprising the Male - Commercial have their literary antecedents from the works of Gerald Pyle. Namely, the vari- ables of net pOpulation density and commercial land use may well be surrogates for Pyle's findings of urban transition and net population density.1 The other less significant factors do infer a younger age grwnqx The youth factor was obvious, but non-working female - higher :resources factor which is negatively related to rape has a variable Imithin the factor that is positively related to rape (i.e., late young 98 population aged 25-34) (Table 4.1). The least significant factor, Transportation - Manufacturing, is weakly inferring a type of area in which rapes are committed and the weakly negative loading variables (single family dwellings and lower middle income) are inversely related in rape. On the basis of the 1971 regression results, hypothesis one would have to be rejected. The evidence is too weak to formulate any substantive and concrete conclusions. The results experienced in the 1971 regression model is repeated and intensified in the 1974 model. The six independent vari- ables were able to gather a 14.36 percent explanation of the Spatial variation of rape. Only two factors had a significant relationship at the .05 significance level. The most significant factor (Table 4.2) pertains to Renter - Low Resources and Small Population per Household. But the pOpulation groups on this factor (Table 4.1; Factor IV, 1975) show different relationships with rape. The age groups 1-14 and 35—44 have negative relationships while the 65 year or older group has a positive relationship. The major inference relationships from this factor are of housing status (renters) and the small population per household while the social-ethnic minorities factor alludes to a possible victim group. Although not exactly congruent with the 1971 factors of Minority - Limited Resources and Late Stage vs. Family Stage, the variables of race, ethnicity, renters, and population per household are included for both factors for the two time periods. It is interesting to note that the factor labelled "Late Stage vs. Young Family" (Table 4.2) has a negative simple correlation with rape. Thus, 99 a very weak inference can be made that this factor is pertaining to a positive association with the negative loading variables (Table 4.1, Factor V, 1975), thus indicating a potential victimization group in the late middle - late stages of the life cycle. In conclusion, the same result for 1971 is appropriate for 1974. The hypothesis must be rejected, because the evidence is too weak to formulate any substantive or concrete conclusions. Although the 1975 analysis completes the results, some interesting and important relationships emerge. The most significant contrast is between 1974 and 1975. The first and most obvious contrast is that in the span of one year, the number of single and multiple offender rapes went from 149 to 235. Moreover, the multiple R2 using the same independent vari- ables went from 14.36 percent to 27.9 percent; in other words, the explanation almost doubled. However, it was still weak--thus the hypo- thesis must be rejected. Two factors in 1975 had a significant regression relationship with the dependent variable at the .05 level. What is important is that the two factors had a higher explanatory power than 1971 and 1974 using all six factors (Table 4.2). Moreover, in 1975 the most signi- ficant factor was Male - Commercial Space which in 1974 was almost insignificant (Table 4.2). But a consistent theme throughout the years has been the significance of renters, multiple family dwellings, and small population per household and has manifested itself the factor labelled Renters - Low Resources (Table 4.2 and Table 4.], Factor IV, 1975). 100 Another interesting change throughout the years has been the association of the Transportation - Manufacturing factor. Although this factor has always had the weakest explanatory power (Table 4.2), the direction of its relationship went from positive to negative in 1975. The negative loading variable on this factor is single family dwellings (Table 4.1, Factor V, 1975). Thus, there exists a very weak inference of a positive relationship of single family dwelling space with rape. The explanatory power of the Minority - Limited Resources (1971) and the Racial-Ethnic Minority (1975) factors decreased in 1975 whereas in the previous years, it had always been one of the most significant factors (Table 4.2). Finally, another difference between 1974 and 1975 pertains to the relationship of the Late Stage vs. Young Family factor (Table 4.2). In 1974, this factor had a negative relationship with the depen- dent variable, thus, indicating a positive relationship between persons in the late—middle and late stage in the life cycle (Table 4.1, Factor V, 1975). However, in 1975, this factor changed the direction of its relationship to a positive one. Therefore, the positive loading vari- ables on this factor are positively related to rape. Hence, persons in the l-l4 and 25-34 age groups in areas with a large pOpulation and large amounts of vacant land experienced a higher proportion of rapes. In spite of the weak explanatory power of the independent variables, which resulted in the rejection of the research hypothesis, 3 most interesting benefit was gained. We were able to examine the spatial correlates of rape through more than one time period. Moreover, it was found that factors changed in their degree of explanatory power. 101 Residual Analysis: 1971, 1974, and 1975 Despite the fact that the regression analyses were unable to generate substantive and concrete inferential statements--an examination of the standardized residuals is necessary. The necessity is defined on the assumption that it is important to ascertain where the analysis over and under predicted the occurrence rape, along with the accurate predictions. The map of standardized residuals for 1971 (Figure 4.4) is almost a mirror image of the dependent variable distribution (Figure 4.1). The first obvious relationship is that the regression model grossly underpredicted the highest proportion tract and those with two to three percent of the population. At the other extreme, tracts which were grossly overpredicted appear to be restricted to Central San Diego and in the northwest portion of East San Diego. Allegedly the attributes and conditions in these were Optimal for the occurence of rape. But according to Figure 4.1, these areas had little or no rapes. Overall, the average over and under predictions appear to be restricted to those tracts which had no or low prOportions in the coastal area (i.e., parts of East San Diego). In the majority of Kearny Mesa, Southern and Northern San Diego, the average prediction pertained to areas which had no rapes in 1971. A parallel conclusion can be made for 1974 (Figures 4.2 and 4.6). The highest proportion rape areas were grossly underpredicted while the gross overprediction, fewer tracts in number, pertained to areas with no rapes. The average over and under prediction form a fairly extensive and contiguous pattern of tracts with little or no rapes . 102 e.e «unwed 5.. u ..of an... :44“, .0; n o. 0.0 «0A 4 o. 0.0 // 150:0 can. 50.0..0 Whoa”: zmuthoz m_m>4l_.. mmozmmmo ZHHUH> ‘I'Il .manIHan ”myopcommo paw meflpow> mama mo cowunnwwpmfln om comczo> _ .ms seam .m> oeem A». am_. A_e0 wowcso> coucao> oo .m> copmo .m> Lop—o eco. m:.c cm. em.c cc.~ enm— Amy Rm.. Ammv om -- -- m_n. own. m_.o em.m mx.~ mnm_ I1 IAII III 11111.1 II II he. ”my Rev cm I- II xmc. chm. wa.~ m~.~ cm._ Nua— IliI I-lllliii-fll'll ll -1 Iii-IIIII I101 III-III! 11.1.111- III.IIIIII|IIIJTIIIi 1| ceucso> .c_0 Aa_. .omv mo II .m> cop—c owe. nvm.n :m._ cc.m wo.~ .noq _euoa me..w a m:..u a .noca a A20 Amos_scw A». Amo_ae. m Ame—ms..m cao>\ou=oeamo¢ uaagzum :m; ; Lop—o Emuom> pouczo> Empum> ou< 02am ceozuon oucmumaa o~na~ua> ucopconoa m:¢mmcnasou asap: m230cc xudumamm: ou< mo mcao: em_3cmm; aunuauwcu_m . ¥.IP1 III IIIIuIInl ““IIWIH. I-nvuhuduudnflfihflI-udehnnLu»Hun-”u." uflH"Wwfllflb-fldfluflwuh"fiuFWIH-il-hhuflflduIihflauHHII-IvflIu." i-I ..... 1MP"- .maaa-~aaa u»a_aaamaa ou< use ooceummn-I~.m o_nmh 113 Race - Rape - Distance Introduction The third research hypothesis asserts that the distance between the residences of the participants in intraracial rape (same racial - ethnic group) will be less than interracial rapes (victim or offender from different racial - ethnic groups). The foundation for this re- search hypothesis relies on the findings of Amir and racial residential segregation research. As revealed in the literature review, Amir found that a majority of the known black intraracial rapes displayed a pattern of limited mobility whereby the Offenders' and victims' residences, along with the location of the crime scenes, were within a five block area. But a majority of the known white intraracial rapes displayed a mobility pattern where none of the relevant locations were within a five block area. Moreover, a majority of the known interracial rapes were in the q I O I \3 I same category as the white 1ntrarac1al rapes. The inference of differential mobility based on race is quite clear. Thus, the plausible explanation lies within the spatially restricted residential occupance of racial ethnic minorities.4 Victim—Offender Racial and Ethnicity Interactions: 1971-1975 Previous works have shown that rape is an intraracial pheno- -menon.5 An exception to this empirical observation was encountered in the San Diego incidents. Table 5.3 depicts the racial-ethnic inter- actions by year. Again the benefit of examining a phenomenon through time is revealed. If this study had concentrated only on 1971, then a 1 1‘4 hast; “Quincy. 'I III. III I II‘JII I a:._m I-’I'|"u|11lll.-'--l II II I 2:. z .clc:4:: I _=~:_.\_1_unhuu~:_ 2:. m... it 0".III‘I’III armada: I .amqm VI'I'.’II l DIII-..‘ II 111-'1 l U- a:_ v: Tl lil’l III II ‘111- IIIIII IIIII. "Il-l o=_u:;\::c:4:= Ill! 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'1.-|1I|1III:IA _ I _ P I, I IlIII II1I1111‘IIII IIIrO-IIIIIO‘IIivIIIIIIIIIIIlloI-IIIIIIIIIA 70:1,! 11 III ’IIIII'I '- I I Ti .IIIII’ Iii-P”- III! fiIIIIIIIII.-:IIIIe-IIII :— mm I'll '1'" III II’blV-II 'IIII'I ..I ..III IIII IIIIIII I o:_ua;\xumwm - . - Iona... ...x.\-s_w-_..._Im "1.,'ll,'| o:_~=;\ou_;2 .-.-zu=_:\v..em e_eu_>\coe=occo _u_uuuu9u:_ mm x: we _nauecacu:_ _nuo+ p. ......- _e~:o.cc\.=ucodco fiIIIIIII-IIIIII'IIII-IILI 1- IIIIII-IIIIIIIIII IIIIIIIII-lO-II'I -- II II c=_1:_\:n_1c_ aIII- II-II-II- _ u m o=.3=4\o=.aaa non-I.I-O.~.I. mu m— ..III 1001 |OII'II '0.‘|Iv|-l .I. v. :w. I . II'I I1.-LY-II1 Ill 1.11010 11.1.1.1 17.1.1 una— YIIII!‘ '1! ’6- III '- 11 I I- 'ilvllIl -|I III I xun_¢\xua~¢ 0.911"! ll 1": o._;x\ua_;x .nm_ III-e..4-.. ......ulu... .co_~enuo~:_ o_::~; .L. ..A. s_.u_>\.oe=occc a. . _ .. Nu. .... w ..... _=_uu¢ Loacocco - a.ue_>-m.m o_na~ 115 claim of interracial predominance would have been made, but this asser- tion would have been false for the following years. An interesting note is that 1972 marks the lowest year for interracial rape, but its proportion increases up to 1975. The explanations for the predominance of interracial rape in 1971 and intraracial rape in the following years cannot be definitely determined. One can only speculate as to the reasons for the inter- racial - intraracial change. However, there are some interesting victi- mization trends or patterns in the data. First, interracial rape has primarily involved a black offender and a white victim. Beginning in 1974, we find an increase in the latino offender-white victim rapes. Secondly, there is a low frequency of white offender - non-white victim rapes. Perhaps this is the type of rape where the victim is very hesitant to report the offense to the predominantly white establishment. Ignoring the race and ethnicity interactions of the participants and concentrating on their composition reveals further information about victimization and criminalization. According to the 1970 Federal Census and the 1975 Special Census, the whites comprised 81 and 84.3 percent of the households while the Blacks comprised 6.5 and 6.8 percent of the households. The Latinos comprised 10.0 and 6.1 percent.6 Table 5.4 shows the annual breakdowns of victims and offenders by race and ethnicity. The victimization patterns Show an under representation of the white and latinos when compared to their total composition while the blacks are over represented as victims. The year 1975 marks a change in the victim patterns. in that. the white pronortion was at its 1163 newcommo n o ”Emuu_> u > “eunucoouog u A . Munoz .Lozu:< >3 10u5~:u_mu Houuzow _ . Am._v no.~0 Aw.0 _ L P_._. . .c... ._._. u . . czocxcs a I- m ~ _ _ M _ I- _ -- AA.. aw.v Am.0 Am.. Am._c . ....0 A_._. m .m... ”c... _ m «aucoduo e m _ _ I- N _ L . n _ II I- c. Aw.0 Am._. Am._c Hm._0 ....U Ac._0 E: c m n m m I- -- _ -I _ -I I- - .e _ .m.~_v Am.ov Av.n_c Aa.c0 Am.m~0 .m.m0 n~.o. .e.m. Am.o_0 no.5. Av.o. .o.m0 Ocuum an on em n_ cw a w m __ m o a . 4 IIIIJTIII-.II III- ...-II a~.Nv0 Aw.m_v Am.~m. A~.x. .N._e0 Am.x_. Ac.ce. Aa.c~. Aa.~e0 Aw.emv Ao.mm0 Am.-0 um wm~ am no a_ am em oe m. we SN cm ~_ 4 .m I III-LIIIIII.IIIII.IJIII- .III-I I111, ill-ILTII .I III-ill Ac.~v0 Am.ca0 Ao.mev no.mw. Aa.~e0 .¢.ea. Ae._e. an.ea. .a.Ie. fla.eo0 .o.mmv AA.AAV Qua amm ace mm _c_ cm as on me me on .m we .5: o > o > o > o > o > o > samu_=;au I comm ~aaoe vac_ maa_ as. .592 uI-quu..I-.r. u I u II can Irinacw..., - ..I lwhugnu I...“..u,»-.III.IL!.-nr-IIJF...quuI-wLI-In ..J«InfihILrulthh-IIIHuh-IIIHITMTI-IIIHIIIII.hn... ..nIIIIh-I I .mao_I_aa_ ”coaazmoesou guacau-ouaa .coecocco-s_auL>I-a.m o_a~» 117 highest and the black victims had their lowest prOportion of the five vear period. The offender categories. Table 5.4, show a greater diSparitv in terms of over and under representation of offender race and ethnic categories. However, 1974 appears to be a pivotal vear in the offender trends. This vear initiates a change where the number and pronortion of white offenders exceeds the black offenders. Thus. the change in fre- ouencv and proportion in 1975 is much greater. The year 1974 also marks the rise or increase in the latinos as an offender group. The implications are clearly that the victims' and Offenders' racial and ethnic origins are not Stable from year to year. In 1975, the victims begin to approach their proportion of the total households in the city. The offender classification in the same year saw a sharp increase in the white offenders while one minority, the blacks, Sharply dropped in its percentage with another minority group, the latinos, producing a Sharp increase in its frequency (70 percent change). Therefore. it is possible that the new rape law in 1975 may have had an effect on the racial-ethnic memberships of both victims and offenders. It may well be possible to speculate that the full reporting of rape would reflect the racial-ethnic composition of the population. Distance bv Victim-Offender Race/ Ethnicity The testing of this hypothesis involved the measurement of the distances between the participants' residence within three racial groups: (1) white intraracial rape; (2) interracial rape (white victim - non-white offender); and (3) non-white intraracial rape. A 118 fourth category which included rape between different non-white members was initially included in the analyses, but due to low frequencies (17 in all) and unstable variances no test was conducted to assess rape differences between these groups. Table 5,5 displays the distances between the participants' residences within the three racial categories by year. The results of this analysis are similar to the results of the previous analyses, namely that the relationships are not consistent from year to year. During 1971, the diStances are not in support of the research hypothesis, since the interracial rapes entail less distance than the intraracial rapes. The same relationship is true for 1973. But unlike rapes in 1971, the white intraracial distance is longer than the non-white intraracial distance. However, during 1972 and 1974, it is found that the distances are significantly different and in support of the research hypothesis. Moreover, although weakly significant, 1975 conforms to the research hypothesis. There are some other interesting facts emerging from this analysis. First, with the exception of the years 1973 and 1975, the non-white intraracial rapes consume longer distances than the white intraracial rapes. One could only speculate as to the possible expla- nations for this condition. Secondly, the white intraracial rape distances have a wide range of values as evidenced by the changes from 1971 to 1973. Again one could only speculate as to the explanations for this phenomenon. covcomuo 3cm Ewuow> ouwgaIcoz u -_ nacho popcouuo oufizchoz use Efluow> cums: u __ nacho popcomuo van emuuM> cums: _ macho xocosaouu u A 0 cogus< xn pope—auqau nounsow 1319 can Acoc aoe_0 Aea_v deuce Ae_v Anew Ace. -~ no. am. m~._ ..N w._ mama ._ Am_0 RON“ Away on __ .m> _ mac. ~e.~ o.— m.~ ~_.~ enma Aw. Am_. Ammv _m I. -- cos. chem. ow.~ om.~ mm.» mama .H as". Am_c Awwe mm .0 .ms _ nee. _~.m mm._ m.~ ~m. Nam. Am_0 Anna HcNV ma -- I- ma. ev~v. me.m o~.~ .~.m ~am~ sauce mo..w a mc..w a .aoca a Amo_a:wm ”mo_as~m .mo_as~w oumozum am; a ~__ macaw __ usage a macho uno>\oucovwmom cooruoa oucaumwo meom_caaeou aaocu assoc: e_=;au-saauaz co memo: u_aaaua> ueoeaoaua omwxudaa vcmowuwcumw n.1IlI..I.III N ” “H.113“ U Lrillhplnllllhun N “III" p.43-0- WIalhIln ”I I" ”lulu.- Sk-“uu ..EHII‘ "”- “Nfl “NJ-”QIN- Hanna!” I. In. 0.! .ouam Emuom>Iuop=oumo a; oozopfimox coozuom oocaumdaI-m.m o—pmh 120 Conclusions A theme common to the two previous hypotheses has emerged once again. Simply, there has been a lack or absence of consistent and definitive relationships. Because of sharp changes and fluctuations, it is difficult to ascertain both spatial and social trends. The test of this hypothesis showed a strong relationship between race differentials and distance but only for two years (1972 and 1974). As previously stated in reference to the other hypotheses, a major benefit is the examination of these spatial and social rela— tionships through time. Hence, if one had concentrated solely on the year 1972 or 1974, then the research hypothesis would have to be accepted. It is rather obvious that the phenomenon rape is too variate to encounter the hypothesized relationships. Thus, because the rela- tionships were not consistent from year to year, the research hypothesis is rejected. Therefore, there is some relationship between victim- offender race differentials and distance between their residences but the relationship is not consistent through time. Notes to Chapter V 1Menachem Amir, Patterns in Forcible Rape, 1971, p. 52. 2An analysis of variance of the mean age of the victims and offenders by year produced no significant differences: overall mean victim age was 24.6 years; mean offender age was 25.8 years. 3Menachem Amir, Patterns in Forcible Rgpe, 1971, p. 92. 4For the seminal geographic works on this tOpic refer to: Richard Morrill, "The Negro Ghetto: Problems and Alternatives," [pg_ Geographic Review 55 (1965):339-36l. Also, Harold M. Rose, ”The Development of an Urban Subsystem: The Case of the Negro Ghetto," Annals of the Association of American, Geogrgphers 60 (1970): 121 1-17. Also, , The Black Ghetto: A Spatial Behavioral Perspec- tive (New York: McGraw—Hill Book Company, 1971). 5Menachem Amir, Patterns in Forcible Rape, 1971, pp. 44-45. Also refer to Michael Agopian, Duncan Chappell and Gilbert Geis, "Interracial Forcible Rape in a North American City," In Israel Drapkin and Emilio Viano, Eds., Victimology (Lexington, Mass.: Lexington Books, 1974), pp. 93-102. 6San Diego City Planning Department, Data Services, "A Brief Statistical Analysis of San Diego's People and Housing As Identified by the 1975 Special Census," October 28, 1975, p. 8. CHAPTER VI CURSORY EVIDENCE OF SPATIAL-SOCIAL TRENDS Introduction The three antecedent discussions of hypotheses convey the simple notion that rape is variant and changeable through time. Therefore, the exploration and description of some salient social-spatial charac- teristics producing this variability is mandatory before the testing and discussion of the fourth and final hypothesis. Victim-Offender Relationship: 1971-1975 AS previously stated, the victim-offender relationship or interaction between the participants is crucial in defining rape as a criminal-social problem or as a social problem involving a crime. The fundamental assumption being the less intimate the previous relationship between the participants, the greater the public problem and the greater demand for the intervention on the part of law enforcement. Table 6.1 depicts the annual frequencies and proportions of the different relationship categories. At first glance, we can con— clude that reported rapes are predominantly a stranger related phenomenon. But the changes through the years relays another important fact; the stranger variety rape declined sharply in 1975. Also in 1975, the casual acquaintance and acquaintance rapes displayed substantial frequency increases and the latter relationship had its highest proportion of the study period. A less dramatic 122 1223 ._mu0u ~e3ccw mo accuse; u A 0 ”32mm. v L ”95.xm u ounsvm «nu Hume» x2 zo> pozuzn x3 voum_:o_mu “oopsom mm.~ ~_o ma~ .m. an mc_ ea .auoe Aw~.~0 A~.~c an.“ -- .o.~0 .~.e0 mm.~ em a m I- m e o>aua_oz\s_aeaa Awo.e0 A_.m0 ._.m. Am.~. Am._0 Ave.av m~.~ mN o_ e N ~ a nausea som\omo_o Ame.m0 A~.m0 .c.e. .m.~0 Aw.n. Am_.mv mm.~ _N o c N e m nausea »_asaa Aoo.mv Am.m_0 Ao.v0 Ao.ev Ao.m0 Avv.as mo.~ mm nw o v m n coeducdascu< Am~.-0 Aw.-0 .~.o. Aw.m_a hm.o_. Amm.m~. em.m ma mN N. N. - ma oucauc_aaeu< .msmao Ao.wo. Ao.~o0 Ao.ma. as.mav Ae.~A. Ao.oov m.~ o~e -_ as as on em cementum Amo.0 .m.c Aw.. A_._V -- Ao.~v ..N Q ~ _ _ -I ~ crease: museum sauce mnm_ eao_ mam. mam. .am. A¢o>0 ausmcosua_oz R. see» hovcouuoIEmuuw> Inl- ~n-I.EIIIII.|II.IIIINIuhIIul”-‘ h."0nu "IL-IV, .IIIn Q |.I,Id "bk“. ““1.“.uc. “I“ I‘- F "MIPUI'I‘ "i “N v M in. W “hi. "InI" u n ‘“ «Inn n l, ”nu H.“ u h h I- u‘... .i'. “I.“ ,a “ inn-"a "II,,"II. "I“.- nlu ”If. N 11. u .N u.",aIll.I.‘H.|Inl.Ih. "II. "FINN-.70!" "qua.““hhuflflh4 “HUIAFII .mna~I_nm_ “amzmcomum~om popcouuoIEmuuM>IIA.o o—nah 124' change was experienced by the close/boy friend category. The conclu- sion reached here is that 1975 produced an increase in almost all rela- tionship categories but the previously mentioned non-stranger categories show a very striking change. The last column in Table 6.1 shows the average number of scenes by relationship for all years combined. The unknown and family/relative categories have the least amount of victim movement. However, in terms of numerical predominance and anonymity, the stranger category repre- sents minimal movement and the casual acquaintance the most movement. .Beginning with the family friend category, the generalization that intimacv increases as movement decreases would be quite valid. The issues of number of scenes will reoccur throughout the text and its Spatial interpretations will be made in the discussion of the fourth hypothesis. Method of Operation: 1971-1975 The second most important aspatial factor in rape is how the offender approaches the victim. Table 6.2 depicts the frequencies and proportions of the methods of operation by year. Thus, the illegal entry of a residence is the numerically and proportionally predominant method of Operation for each year. However, certain notable changes occured which lend further credence to the impact of a revised rape law in 1975. Illegal entry of residence was the predominant MO in 1975. However, the numerical increase from 1974 was minute while the propor- tional decrease was dramatic. Moreover, in 1975, other methods I125 Table 6.2--Method of Operation: 1971-1975. l ... Method of Operation 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 Total x Scenes 111ega1 Entry 42 41 29 56 60 228 2.0 (44.6) (39.0) (33.3) (42.7) (30.8) (37.25) Kidnap _ Attack 15 28 14 22 42 121 3.4 (15.95) (26.7) (16.1) (16.8) (21.5) (19.77) Meet Outdoors 5 4 6 7 16 38 3‘6 (5.3) (3.8) (6.9) (5.3) (8.2) (6.2) Accept Ride/Hitchhike 1° 8 11 1“ 22 65 4'2 (10.6) (7.6) (12.6) I (10.7) (11.3) (10.12) T’7 Meet Public Building 2 2 13 5 11 33 "1 (2.12) (1.9) (14.9) (3.8) (5.6) (5.39) Meet Bar 5 5 4 i 5 19 38 3 4 (5.3) (4.8) (4.6) . (3.8) (9.7) (6.2) I -- -- | Third Person 1 ‘ , 3 6 10 3 2 (1.06)‘ -- -- I (2.3) (3.1) (1.63) f - . _ 10 5 11 7 ‘ 12 16 56 2.1 known ‘ i 1 (10.63); (10.50) (8.0) (9.2) (8.2) I (9.15) A 1_ I t a 3 1 Other 3 I 6 2 f 6 1 I 18 ..s (3.19)‘ (5.7) (2.3) . (4.6) (.5) I (2.94) | f V I -- i . 2. Unknown 1 i 1 3 l 2 t 5 1 1 (1.06)- -- (1.1) f (.8) (1.0) g (.81) I i Total 94 i 105 87 | 131 195 : 612 2.85 “L g I Source: Calculated by author. M0 by Year: Chi Square = 56.12; P < .0174; ( ) = Percent of Annual Total. — 126 experienced their highest frequencies for the study period. Hence, it is the composition of the methods for 1975 that make it anomalous. The first interesting change in 1975 is the numerical increase in the second most perilous method, the kidnap-attack, followed by the less dramatic increases in the less perilous methods of "meet out- doors and accept ride/hitchhike.” Hence, there is a marked shift away from the illegal entry of the victim's residence to those involving the meeting and/or assault outdoors. A second interesting observation in 1975 is the emergence of the methods of Operation which implied or misinterpreted complicitv or precipitation on the part of the victim. The MOS of "accept ride/ hitchhike." "meet bar." "third person." and "known" are representative of the alleged complicity or precipitation methods.1 The inference, although tenuous. is that the revised California rape law facilitated the entry Of the less anonymous relationship and the alleged victim precipitated rape incidents into the criminal iustice system. The almost dramatic increase in the "meet bar" method in 1975 (Table 6.2) lends support to this assumption. While 1975 has been the sole focus of the changing methods of operation, 1973 has a rather curious method of operation composition (Table 6.2). As previously stated, this year has the lowest frequency of rape incidents and perhaps assumes the role of a pivotal year. Besides the low annual rape frequency, the most inquisitive circum- stances pertains to two methods of operation. Although in 1973, the numerical and prOportional predominance of the illegal entry MO is substantiated, a peculiar attribute is its lower frequency and 127 proportion compared to the other years. Supplemental to this oddity is the high frequency and proportion of the "meet in a public building” method. The main issue which will be explained in the fourth hypothesis is the proportional relationship between methods. In other words, do the methods of operation differentiated by offender Status (unknown, single, series) determine the frequencies and prOportions of the different methods of operation? Another important measure is the average number of scenes for each method of operation. The last column in Table 6.2 presents the average number of scenes for each method. This measure is actually a surrogate for the amount of movement indicative of each MO. Although it may be somewhat tautological, variations in the number of scenes exist. If we construct a hierarchy of perilous methods with "accept ride/hitchhike" being the least perilous and "illegal entry" the most perilous, we can conclude an inverse relation- ship between the amount of movement and peril. Thus, with an average of two scenes, illegal entry involves the most fear or danger with the least amount of movement while the "accept ride/hitchhike" method which initially involves less danger for the victim involves more movement (6.2). More associations between the method of operation, number of scenes, and other factors can be made. The outdoor MOS (kidnap-attack, meet outdoors, and accept ride/hitchhike) involve more movement than indoor non-illegal entry methods (meet at a public building or bar). Furthermore, the methods emphasizing legal access or trust (third 128 person or known) as an aggregate involve less movement than the outdoor methods. The annual distributions and comparisons of the methods of operation lend further credence to the assertion that rape is not a static phenomenon. Moreover, the methods of Operation have distinc- tive measures of movement or number of scenes which compounds the variability of rape. The previous hypotheses and discussions of relationship and MO illustrate some of the social and spatial fluctuations of rape. But further measures of change require exposition before the testing and discussion of the fourth hypothesis because these descriptions essentially form the framework for the final hypothesis. Selected Measures of Changg_ Table 6.3 presents three different categories or measurements of annual changes or variations of rape. With the exception of the first category, the rest involve the use of a direct spatial measure- distance.. The average number of scenes per year gives an indication of the overall mobility of each years' rape volume. As evident from Table 6.3, 1975 emerges as a distinct year in terms of its average number of scenes. The conclusion is that rape in 1975 involved more of the mobile relationships and M05 to produce significant statistical differentiation from the other years. A spatial measure which supports 1975 as an anomaly is the mean distance of the crime scene from the CBD (Table 6.3: Test 2). At first glance, it is obvious that a slight positive relationship 129 .xucoscowd n A 0 “ouoz ponus< an poumfizufiwu noowsom u M c _ m acne m . m M ozoom Oswuu c mama .m> .1 acts knee ammo . flame acme ccc cucac acusccz ”whoa .Nnmfi mmoo. BN.N N~.~ ~c.~ v.~ . on. NH.~ coozuom oucmumwa m mama _ .m> Numa “ .mams .m> amoaaev mama .m> Hams .eama Ammsv . Asmav Anew Amosv Remy emu scam macaw vamHIdan .m> mama «No. mw.~ Nv.v ww.m cc.m wv.m mm.N oswwu museummo _ mnmfi .m> memHV a~m~0 anwv . amofiv meow chad-Humfi mmo. mm.~ oo.m . ~w.~ om.~ M on.m om.~ mocoow mo..w a mo..w a .noua a mnm~ «nod mnm~ mama Head ommonom cm; a meanwwpm> . memo: nsopu Hm===< mcowfiuwmsou asepu acopeomo: omwzpflmm u:mo«w«:wwm .man-mnmfi ”omcmsu mama mo mop3mmoz pouoofiomIIm.o c.2mb 130 exists between time and mean distance of the crime scene from the CBD, but the average distance increase between 1971 and 1974 is .29 miles while the increase between 1974 and 1975 is an abrupt .54 miles. There- fore, 1975 is statistically significant from 1971 to 1974 which form a homogeneous group. The abrupt distance change from 1974 to 1975 rele— gates the latter year as a spatial anomaly. A second simple measure pertains to the distance traveled by the participants (victim and offender) jointly from a separate initial meeting place to a separate crime scene (Table 6.3: Test 3). In this test, 1973 emerges to be significantly different from the homogeneous group of 1972 and 1974. The distances between the scenes in 1973 (2.4 miles) more than doubles any other year except 1975. It is interesting that mean distances for all years, except 1973, range from .76 miles to 1.22 miles. In other words, the differences between the distances are insignificant, but the abrupt mean distance for 1973 not only eliminates the possibility of a temporally constant spatial measure but also illu- strates the dynamic and variable character of the crime. One apparent aspatial relationship exists. There is not a con— sistent increase in distance between the initial meeting place and crime scene with the passage of time. However, there is an increase in the frequency of rapes that involve separate initial meeting places and crime scenes (Table 6.3: Test 3). The overall frequency of rapes does not increase with time because the middle year in the study, 1973, has the lowest frequency (87). However, the frequency of rapes involving separate meeting places and crime scenes did increase with time. Between 1971 and 1974, the increase in this type of rape is 53.5 percent, but between 1974 and 1975, the increase is 76.2 percent. 1.31 Although 1975 did not retain its position as a spatial anomaly with this distance measure, it is a criminological anomaly. This is more important to the law enforcement community since they have to react to a crime whose character is variant and dynamic. Conclusions The previous discussions have described some of the varying social and spatial characteristics of rape. On the social dimension, the victim-Offender relationships and the methods of operation change through time, but so radically within one year (1974 to 1975) that support for the impact of a revised rape law is formed. Complementing these changes are annual increases in the average number of scenes and incidents involving multiple locations. The only spatial measure supporting the assertion of 1975's individuality is that the mean dis- tance of the crime scene from the CBD increases with time and in 1975, there was an abrupt increase. These simple descriptors of social—spatial change provide the background for the fourth hypothesis. Thus, one of the many asso— ciations tested will be how these characteristics are explained when rape is differentiated by criminal career-offender status. Notes to Chapter VI 15cc Menachem Amir, Patterns in Forcible Rape, 1971, pp. 259- 276. Also, Steven Nelson and Menachem Amir, "The Hitchhike Victim of Rape: A Research Report," in Israel Drapkin and Emilio Viano, eds. Victimology: A New Focus (Lexington, Mass.: 0. C. Health, 1973), Volume 5, pp. 47-64. CHAPTER VII CRIMINAL CAREER-OFFENDER STATUS: SPATIAL-SOCIAL REGULARITIES Introduction The fourth research hypothesis asserts that significant spatial and social differences emerge when rape is examined within a framework based on criminal career-offender status. To reiterate, the offender status groups are: (1) open/unknown (the number of offenses committed by a single offender is unknown); (2) single incident (one offender commits one incident and then becomes known and/or apprehended); and (3) series (one offender commits two or more incidents before he becomes known and/or apprehended). Social differences simply means that each Offender status group will have bias in their composition of victim-offender relationships, methods of operation, and average number of scenes. The spatial dif- ferences refer to variations in distance (i.e., distance of the Single and series offenders to the initial meeting place and total distance between the scenes where the victim and offender travel concurrently). Moreover, each group will have variations in the spatial distributions of the crime scene locations. Specifically, the spatial distribution of the crime scene locations for each offender status group will por- tray variations in extent, area, and density. Finally, each offender status group will have ecological biases in the types of areas in which the crimes are committed. 132 133 For the sake of brevity, the tables presenting the victim- offender relationships and the methods of Operation for each offender status group are aggregated for all five years in the study. The pre- sentation Of separate tables for each year would have entailed fifteen separate tables, thus, making it very cumbersome to present and for the reader to absorb. However, specific relationships that will explain annual social and spatial anomalies will be conveyed. Open/Unknown Offender Status Table 7.1 displays the victim-offender relationships and methods of Operation for the open offender status rapes. It is quite obvious that this category is strongly biased towards maximum anonymity (stran- gers, 94.5 percent of the total) and the most perilous methods of opera- tion (illegal entry and kidnap-attack comprise 76 percent of the total). Also, these MOS are exclusively characteristics of the stranger offender. Single Incident Offender Status The single incident Offender has an entirely different compo- sition than the Open/unknown offender (Table 7.2). This category seems to encompass all relationships and methods of operation. Although the stranger relationship has a plurality, its predominance is outweighed by the combination of the other relationships. Yet, within the stranger category, the illegal entry and kidnap-attack MOS constitute 20 percent of all the single incident rapes. This proportion exceeds all other relationship categories with their respective methods of operation ex- cept the casual acquaintance. But within the casual acquaintance cate- gory, it is impossible to find two methods of operation that equal or surpass 20 percent. Thus, like the open cases, a majority of the 134 .HmHOp mo geophoa u A V movmnn. n ucoflowmmoou Aucowcfiucou ”Hoo.-w a ”mo.mom u cumscw “no "ouoz .Ho:u=< An poumAsoAmo ”ochzom _ Ame.NV Ama.v Ame.NV Am.mv _ Amm.a0 ANm.eV AN.mNV AN.omv a HMHOH NON m N m w ON as am NoN Amm.Nv Amm.NV I- I- I- I. m -I I- I- v v II II II II II II II Esocv—CD ANN.NU -I Ame.0 Ame.av -- Ame.v Amm.v -- II coccpeNmseu< N I- N m _ I- N N - II Ncamcu Am.emv Ame.v Ame.v .- Am.mv Ame.mv Am.mv Am.mNV AN.omV Howcmhum CNN N N .- N SN I N am Nos Hench czocxca wonuo Ham 1 mcwpflwam oxficzouw: W whoopuso xomuu< xuucm - poo: I UNNcsa poo: \ocNa pacoo< soc: \acceN¥ Newcaaa aNcmcoNpaNcm HI :oflumwomo mo vogue: .COAumpomo mo posuoz pcm mwcmcoAuonm noncommoIEAuuw> ”msumum Newcommo czocx::\comoII~.n oHnmk 1135 —GHO.P m0 utOUhoa . N .N can» mac. >0: 0:70;; ..ou soucocx; .N.erN. u N:O.O_uuoou xu:o::.uccu u_oc.-w ; ”n .co:~:< as scum—:O_au ”ouuzom .an u oeasvm .gu "Ouoz .N.N. .N.NN .N.N. H .N.N.AIA ...N. .N.N.. .N.c. .N.N.. .N.N.. oeN N. am N m an N. NN c. NN .N .cNoN ..v.NN - .o.m. -- -- .v.. -- -I I- -- N. I- N. -- -- . -- -- I- I- o>NNN.oN\N..aca .N .N.NN .N..N .N.N. -- .N.. -I -- .e.. -I .- cco.ca NN N N. I- N - -- . - -- NoNNoNo.u .N Am.NN .v.N .N.NN .N.N I- -- -- . .N.. .N.N -- NN . v. N I- -- -- . N I- ccc.c. N..eaa .N .N.N.N .N... .N.N. .N... .N.NN .N... .N.. .N.. .e.. .N.N. N4 N N e .. e N . . N ouccac.cseu< .N .v.NNN ...NN .N.. .N.0 .N.N. .N.N. ...N. .N.N. .v.. .N.. ouccuc.csau< .c N N N N. N N. c . N .NSNNO .N .N.NN. .N.. .N.N I- .N.. ...N. .N.N. .N.N. .o.N.. .N.NN NN N . -I _ N N N. N NN .N chcNNNN .. .au0h Nosuo crocg acmuoa hum ac_p_m:m ox_::ouM: muOOpuzo xoeuu< Apps: amcm:0mum.o¢ cc.;N . soc: c..N=c Noe: \cN.N Nacuu< poo: Names.“ .NNN... co.uacono mo venue: ...c. .29.: .7. site: ...... .v. I! .uh.l Iuhlnufl I.M W I L_:N:O_N=_Oz conscNNCIe_uo_> ”mauaam cedcouuo u=01_sc_ o.u=.mII~.n o.sa+ 136 perilous methods are within the stranger relationship, but this is a weak majority. Another important and distinctive factor in this group, irres- pective of victim-offender relationship, is the frequency and proportion of the methods which implied misperceived victim complicity (accept ride/hitchhike and meet bar) and those inferring trust (third person and known-legal access). The composition of the single incident rapes is quite clear. It is diversified and contains not only the more anonymous relationship and perilous methods of operation but also the more intimate rela- tionships and less perilous methods. Series Offender Status The composition of the series rapes greatly resembles the Open cases (Table 7.3) since the overwhelming majority of the cases are stranger-forcible entry and stranger kidnap-attack (73.7 percent). There is a Slight difference between the open and series categories. While strangers comprise 94.5 percent of the former category. they are 88.3 percent of the latter but the difference lies in the relationships that comprise the remainder of the categories (Tables 7.1 and 7-3)- Seven casual acquaintances and four unknown relationships are the remainder of the Open cases. The remainder of the series cases is composed of seven casual acquaintances, ten acquaintance, one family friend, and two close/boy friends. The inference, although very tenuous and better substantiated by larger and diverse frequencies, is that the series offenses have a slight bias towards the more intimate relationships. .ANNOH mo annoyed u A 0 ”m can» mmo. xucosooed ..ou ecuoonxm .vmvwo. n “comofiuuoou Accoucflucou ".00..w a nmN.om. u phenom «:0 “cuoz .uo:u:< an pone—suaau ”oowsom IJS7 .o.0 .N..V .o.. AN.v. Ao.N. .o.NN AN..NN Ae.mm0 .N. . N . N N. N. NN Na .Naoe .N..N -- .N.N I- I- .N.N II - -- c=NNNa N -I . -I II . - -I - NoNono.u .N .N.N -- - II I- - .N.N - II . I- - I- I- I- . - I- ecoaaa N..aca .e .N.NN - .N.N .N.. .N.0 -- I- .N.N .N.NN o. I- . . . -I - . e ouccuc.c:eu< .N ...e. I- -I -I -- .N..N .N... - .N.N ouccucaaaau< N II II -I II m n II A Nwsmwu .~ .N.NN. .N.. -- I- ...e. .N.N. .N.vN ....NN .N.NNV .m~ ~ II II N m w on om poucuhuw .~ .Nuoh posse czocx NNN N:.N.N:N NNNNNUNN= mcooeuso NUNNN< Naucm QNNNcoNNN.oN soc: u..N:a poo: \o=.N Neouu< you: Isaac.“ .ch... INHIHHIHIH".1 l IHIIIlflII ..u..'»‘ "h "1.1““ a A u.".“ ‘I H n hi” . ‘I 0 ‘Ufluhh.ra§- - . .run' "Mug-“vhrarh “Inla- Ia"...gu I find” fig "IKE .l .:O_Nnecno mo venue: can mmnmcomue.oz popcouuoIsfiqu> ”magnum hovcoumo newuom-In.n 0.5mh 138 Summary of the Offender Status Groups In terms of social differences, there are two groups. The strong predominances of the stranger rapes using the more perilous methods would comprise the first group. This group is distinct from the single incident group which is exemplified by a diversity of rela- tionships and methods of Operation. The minute difference in the non- stranger relationships and between the series and open cases is curious at best and not strong enough to validate the two groups as distinctive. Thus, other factors, mainly spatial, will have to verify a distinction. Before the discussion of the spatial characteristics of each group, it is necessary to examine the annual fluctuation of the fre- quencies of each offender status group. Annual Fluctuations of Offender Status Groups It is uncertain if the three offender status groups are socially independent. However, an examination and comparison of the annual frequencies of each group conveys some very important and interesting information (Table 7.4). The Open rapes have their lowest frequency and proportion in 1971. From that year, even with a slight frequency decrease in 1973, the proportion remains somewhat steady until 1975. Thus, the oddity pertaining to the open rapes is the 215 percent increase in the fre- quency between 1971 and 1972. The single incident offenders presents a quite different situation. Between 1971 and 1974, the frequency of single incident offenders remains fairly steady. The greatest frequency difference constitutes ten cases and percentage increase is only 22.2 percent (1973 to 1974). But Between 1974 and 1975, there is an increase of 139 Table 7.4--Offender Status: 1971-1975. Offender Status I # Series Year Open/Unknown Single Series Total Offenders 1971 13 36 45 94 10 (13.8) (38.3) (47.9) 1972 41 34 30 105 8 (39.0) (32.4) (28.6) 1973 33 36 18 87 5 (37.9) (41.4) (20.7) 1974 52 44 35 131 6 (39.7) (33.6) (26.7) 1975 62 90 43 195 2 10 (31.8) (46.2) (22.1) 3 Total 201 240 171 612 ! 39 i I i - 36.53; p 5_.ooo; Note: Chi Square - Source: Calculated by Author. .237; ( ) = percent of annual frequency. Contingency Coefficient 140 46 cases or a 106.5 percent increase. Moreover, the single incident category for 1975 is higher in frequency than any other category for the whole time period of this study. The series category, in its own right, is distinct from the others. In terms of frequencies, 1973 appears to be a pivotal year involving two cycles. Thus, 1971 is the apex of the first cycle and 1975 assumes the same role for the second cycle. Moreover, the number of series offenders appears to follow the same trend (Table 7.4). Another oddity of the series offenses is that its highest frequency is in 1971 and not in 1975 like the open and single offender cases. Secondly, the annual prOportion of the series offenses presents a peculiar trend. The year with the highest proportion of series rapes is 1971 (47.9 percent), but the prOportion for the remaining years do not exhibit a great variance. Thus, the major concern is explaining why the series rapes are highest, in both frequency and pro- portion, in 1971 and why they are not the highest in 1975, like the open and single incident rapes. In reviewing the annual exhibitions of the offender status groups, it is quite clear that the task of identifying these distinct offender status groups is incomplete. The rather radical change between 1974 and 1975 in the single incident group can perhaps be explained by the revised rape law in 1975. As previously discussed, 1975 experienced an increase in the less anonymous relationships and the alleged victim complicity methods of Operation. The discussion of the overall composition of the single incident offender group concluded that this group does not have a majority bias towards one relationship or method of operation. Hence, the plausible explanation for the 141 astounding increase of the single incident rapes between 1974 and 1975 is the implementation of a revised rape law. This new law facilitated entry into the criminal justice system of the rapes involving more intimate relationships and alleged victim complicity methods of operation. The frequencies and proportions of the open and series offender status groups are still begging for a credible explanation. The high frequency in 1975 of the open and single incident rapes and not the series offenses is curious. Moreover, the low frequency and proportion of the open rapes in 1971, accompanied with a high frequency and pro- portion of series incidents, is another curious situation. Compounding this apparent inexplicable situation is the low frequency of series rapes in 1973. It is rather obvious this exposition of the annual frequencies and proportions of the offender status categories has not produced three unequivocally distinct groups. Therefore, it is mandatory to resort to more specific spatial and social measures. Distance of the Crime Scene From the CBD From a previous discussion, it was found that the mean distance of the crime scene from the CBD in 1975 was significantly different and longer than the previous years. Thus, the path of inquiry now focuses on the differences in the mean distance of the crime scene from the CBD by offender status groups within each year and among years. The previous discussions on victim-offender relationships and methods of operation for each offender status failed to firmly define three separate groups. The mean distance of the crime scene from the CBD lends partial support to each group's individuality. 142 Table 7.5 depicts the mean distance of the crime scene from the CBD for each offender status group by year. With the exception of 1972, the remaining years all exhibit significant differences in mean distances for at least two offender status groups. Thus, to reiterate, if this study had concentrated on only one year, a different but perhaps only temporarlly correct spatial and/or social generalization could have been formulated. In 1971, there is a distinct difference in the mean distance of the series and open offenses with the former farthest from the CBD and the latter closest. But this relationship does not persevere. In 1973 and 1974, the series offenses are the most distant with the singles the closest to the CBD. Hence, the inference could have been made that single incident rapes occur closer to the CBD because of the diverse mixture of land uses, functions, and tenous if not limited social networks (i.e., areas of extreme social anonymity). But the mean distances in 1975 repute the continued generalization. The same justification could be appropriate for the open offenses but a tempo- rally constant and/or consiStent relationship is not present. The only tangible spatial characteristic is that from 1973 to 1975, the series offenses appear to be the farthest from the CBD. The assumption that the series offenses are the most distant from the CBD is substantiated by Table 7.6 which displays the annual variations for each offender status group. The open cases by year do not depict a strong significant difference. However, the single and series offenses depict significant yearly differences. Moreover, both classifications lend credence to the assumption that the year 1975 is a spatial anomaly. 143 .zocosvohm I A V ”ouoz Nonus< an poumfisufimu "oohzom mowumm .m> mfimcflm Amvv _ Acme M ”Nov Wampum .m> some wmo. NN.N “ NN.o mH.e m Hw.m mNmH . ammv News N fiNmV .- museum .m> «Hmcnm secs. Nom.N w ma.v mm.m m 3N.m eNmH m away News ammv Wampum .m> camcfim mausom .m> onsflm ance. «N.m “ No.0 mo.N m.m mNmH W I I News mend flsvv m -I -- NNNN. NmN.H NN.m no.4 mm.N m NNmN nmvv AomV Away m II some .m> mofipmm mac. Nm.N m.N N.m No.m W HNmH . W mo. v a mo. v a .noua m w mafiaom ofiwcflm . some M emu ommocom k mm; m m . -( m scam oocmumflo IIII mcomwumnEoo gnome .IIIL, H amofifiev mmsouo mapmum omnmwum> omwznwmm endowmflcwfiw m popcowmo mo mama: unaccomoo . _ II 511.! USN-Lora“. all 1 . -1- . .msumum uopcommo xn emu oz» Eoum ocoom oawuu ecu mo moocmumfio :mo: Hmscc NNm~ . _ Amvv Ammv n Away M Roma w Amqv IMNmN .m> anmfl Nam .m> HNmN coco. M wo.w a NN.e mm.v Nc.c _ NN.N _ mm.N mowcmm I m I“ I M i A I l Home lave m Acme m flame M “one .- mNmH .m> mNmH . NONN. m mmN.N _ mH.v mm.m a mo.N w no.4 w mN.m mamcflm M _ a A aII . W w ”New fiva m Ammv a AHVV w AMNV _ _ _ _ h -I m I. Name. M vam. m Hw.m NN.N “ Hm.m . mm.N w Nc.m some . _ w . a M a I- II I It m «I II . I. n _ mo. v a M mo. v a .nowa l a mama «Nmfi MNmH ” NNmH “ HNmN ommonom a omq m N m mofinmfium> . m . . . acopcomo: mcommhmaeou macho “ AmonEV moocmumwo :mo: Hmszc< omfizuwm; ucmowmwcm_m F . M . i ' -.. I'll" I‘ll!“ I..." .l';'. ‘1‘] III- I 1, I 1.. .azogc msumum .1011” -al' ‘fl '1'! 11“- .1" -.l. I! '1‘! popcommo comm mo mco~umwpm> oocmumwo ~mzcc mauewm mmwwom .m> onefim NNc. Ho.m mN.m W mm.H mNmN as w as ofimefim .m> mowwmm osmcam .m> moflwmm mooo. 33.x cm. W mN.N NNmN Amev m AONV .- II aNHe. mace. mN.N m mH.m HNmH _ I .... 2” mo. v a mo. v a .nowa a nephew _ oneflm new» ammoeom am; a m I- m mmzouu woumum mofinmfiwm> m:0mwpmgeou cache . w noncommo mo ucopcomoo omwzwfimm acm9wmflcwwm w . Amofiwav museum“: x 'II ‘ II'III 'IIIU E'l Inc .oom_a ucfluooz Hmwuwcg ecu Cu xocssow .mhopcowmo mewhom paw OHwCHmIIn.n smash 149 with the extraction of the illegal entry rapes was an overall increase (compare Tables 7.7 and 7.8). The overall mean distance increase for the single rapes is .16 mile but the series cases have a radical mean distance increase of 1.69 miles. Moreover, the number of single cases decreased from 160 to 133 (-l6.8 percent) while the series cases plunged from 163 to 69 (-57.6 percent). The implications are quite clear. The illegal entry rapes are endemic to the series cases while the single incidents are characterized by a diversity of methods. Hence, the extraction of the illegal entry cases creates a situation whereby the testing of significant distance differences is based on the methods of Operation which are endemic to the single incidents. Yet, with the exception of one year, there is no significant difference in the mean distance traveled by offenders in both categories (Table 7.8). This conclu- sion is not only valid for the single incident methods, but for the illegal entry-series method as well. In Table 7.9 the mean distance traveled by single and series suspects who use the illegal entry method shows no significant dif- ferences between the groups, except for one year, 1972. Also, the illegal entry entails a shorter distance than the composite of the other methods (compare Tables 7.8 and 7-9). The plausible explanation for the overall significant differences between the offender status groups (Table 7.7) is the relative saturation of methods which are more characteristic of another offender status group. Thus, the rather extreme mean distance for the series group in 1973 is because only five of the series cases were .AOCOsvowm n n v ”ouoz .hocu:< an pouwaao~mu "oowsom fleas W flame I- -- memo. NNoo. mN.H _ 05.3 H mNms Am_v m AeNV . I- -- owoe. mews. _ em.m “ mm.N VNmfl . MI flm_. ACNV mofiuom .m> msmcsm moweem .m> aameam i ~Nfic. w Hmc_.N . cm.N NN.~ mums _ II a m M _ Mess m ACNV 1 , . -- I- _ NHwN. a «who. i No.N , oe.N NNmfi 2 II m . AHHV L Away .- I- com“. M HmNo. ow.m " ON.m HNmH 2 h l l _ mo. v a mo. v a .nowa _ a museum 1 mfimewm umo> ammoeom am; a _ . _ macho mofinmfiwm> m:0mwwmasou macaw msumum popcommo ucopcomoo Omwzuamm «:mowmwcwmw AmoHMEV OOGMpmwQ.M .Amoamm Awucm Amuo~fi~Icoz _# mowwom ofimefim .m> moweom Hooo. m em.mN cm. W Hm.N Nnmfi I I a- _ _ fiemV RNV - I. w mNmN. Noofi. AN.N m NN.N HNmH n _ L-__I I 1.le mo..w a mo.-w a M .nowa a . mowpom _ oamewm wee» ommogom mm; W m , V macho oHanwm> mcomwummeou a:ogo w msumum popcommo ucopcomoo V omwzuwma ucmoflm«cwwm ‘1 I'll. amonEV oocmumwo x .axyco oz xppcm VmwOHHHV oom_m «canoe: meuwcH ozu cu xocwzow m.uop:omwo mmwhom paw ofimcwmIIm.n oHnmh 152 illegal entries of 27.8 percent of the series cases, but in the other years, 50 to 75.6 percent of their series cases are illegal entries. As previously stated, the journey to crime statistic is limited because it is useless for the unknown cases. The conclusion that when series and single offenders use similar methods, with no significant difference in the mean distances for four of the five years, it gene- rates two conjectural issues pertaining to the open cases. First, the mean distances of the known cases form a base from which the unknown cases are extremes (shorter or longer). Secondly, the mean distances for the unknown offenders are the same and that other Spatial-social factors explain the differences between the offender status groups. Number of Scenes and Offender Status In the annual comparisons of the mean number of scenes, it was found that the year 1975 was significantly different from the other years (Table 6.3). This year experienced a higher scene average (3.0) which implies greater movement in rape as a gross aggregate. This inquiry is whether the average number of scenes is a significant discriminator between the offender status groups. Table 7.10 presents the annual mean number of scenes for each offender status group. The rapes used in this analysis are limited to the acquaintance, casual acquaintance, and stranger varieties. Thus, focusing on rape as the public problem and eliminating those relation- ships and methods which have a lower number of scenes. It is apparent that this social/criminological measure does a better job of discri- minating between the groups. 153 .xocosuowm u A V "ouoz .Honus< x3 pepmmso~mu nounsom I- w econommwo M fiNoV fiNAV ”NoV mosowo HN< “catacomo mosowo NN< V ooo. fimo.oo No.N eo.m oo.N mNoH momenm mfimewm .m> mmowom fiomV fiNmV fiNmV .m> :ooo oomewm .m> ammo ooo. eoo.m mN.N om.m om.N oNoH AoHV flNmV ammo I- -- oom. HoN. NN.m oo.N oo.N mNoN fioNV AoNV flHoV .- II ooN. moN. NN.N eo.N oo.N NNoN momcflm nmoV nNNV “moo .m> mofluom oomcwm .m> moweom Noo. No.N m.N m.m eo.N NNoH mc. w a mo. w a .nowm m moflhom ofimcflm a come pwo> ommogum - -II- II.-Iomo a I» -- mcomfiummeou macho mpaowu msumpm oHnmfinm> omwznwmm unmowmwcmfim popcommo mo noncom.m ucopcoaoo .mzumpm Honcommo xn mowmho>< ocoom Vmscc ammo w Hooo. mN.m oo. . no.“ No. memo V m “ems W meo flNmo II «Nacho .m> eooo w ommo. oo.N ooo.~ W Nm.N oo. oNoH floHV flNmV AmmV .- II m mooN. mN.H . o~.N mo.~ oN.H mnoo A! 1. M AoNV AoNV nooo V I- I. W oooN. mN.H NNH.H oN.H No. NNoH V _ w oomefim .m> mowemm V Amoo V flNNV V ”moo oomeom .m> soo oomewm .m> ammo w ooHo. om.o _ no.3 V oA.H m ow. snofi . V “ mo. v a mo. v a .ooeo a museum V oomewm U ammo . gem» oomoeom omo i a . o . II I m mono magnum H manmNum> m=OmwmeEou macho . V . omwzpwma ucmowmwcwwm .copcomwo mo Amo_wEV oozmumfio.m. .pcopcomoo r V o .msumum popcommo paw oucmpmchI~_.o Omnmh 157 separate groups. Perhaps, the only significant discriminators common to each group are the criteria defining them. Further investigation into the spatial characteristics of the groups may provide the support for group individuality. Table 7.12 displays the annual frequencies of offender status groups within three areal units (see inset Figure 7.1). The purpose of this table is not actually to distinguish between the offender status groups, but to relay a rough notion of the geographic change of rape through time. After examining Table 7.12, it is quite Obvious that from 1971 through 1974, rape was primarily a Central San Diego problem (range of 84 to 96 percent of the total). During this time, there were some rapes occuring in the northern sector, but the proportion of the total never exceeded 15 percent (1971: 14.89 percent; 1973: 14.92 percent). The final year, 1975, presents quite a different picture. The northern rape activity prior to 1975 appears to be almost random Or geographically inconsequential when compared to the central sector. In 1975, a dramatic increase in the frequency and proportion of all offender status groups occurs. The central sector's proportion dropped to 57.47 percent with a total of 112 incidents, but the central proportion in 1974 was 90.09 percent with a frequency of 118 offenses. Thus, 1975 represents a drastic proportional decrease and a minute frequency decrease. The northern sector, in 1975, is the most rapidly increasing with 72 incidents representing 36.91 percent of the total. The 158 .AmuOH macho maumum wowcowwo .m:::< mo acoowoa u :o.o~ ”AHHOH ~ozcc< mo acouuoa u A V "Ouoz .uo;u=< an neumAaoAmu "oopsom _ IIIII. IIIII. mo.o oo.o mo.e mm.Nm oo.oo . o~.oN oA.No mm.mn o~.VN ANo._V Ano.mo Anm._o AA~.AV Ame-ANV "Aom.NNV Aoo.mao Aon.moo Aoo.AV mo_ N o n e_ om we AN on m“ onH No.3 Am.oo mo.oo n.No No.3" om._o oA.m .- II AoA.V Aoo.MNV AAA.oNo Avo.omo Amo.mV Afio.mV AoN.NV _n~ -- II _ an on oo o m m ono~ oo.oo oo.oo oo.oo mm.mm -.N~ oo.o .- II I- AoN.nHV Aon.omo Awe.emo Aoo.oo Aom.oo on.mV no I. II II N_ No on o e n whoa .- II II oo.oo_ o_.oo N~.mo II oo.m No.4 II II .- Anm.oNV Ano.omV Ae~.AmV II Ao.~V Ao.~V moo .- II II on No on .- N N Nhofi NN.N .- II oo.oo o.oo No.4o AA.A~ _~.H~ om.m~ Aoo.HV II .- AN.omV Aeo.emo AN.-V Afim.oo AmN.oV AN~.NV «o a II .- om No oo o e N _Ao~ Hench mofiuom o—wcwm ammo newuom oAucAw come memuom oAmcwm come you» v aou< .cuosusom m mou< .Amuucoo N can A mmou< .cuoguuoz mou< H-.."IJ:‘I- ---- {I r:|-n- 1'” b .mnmAIAnmA ”momxh maumum newcouwo mo mGOMHSDMhumwn Amou20 .26 93 m A o n v n N _ o . . O monum 2583. *0 39:32 .20». 20...; ............. ............... ........ ........ ....... ..ooo 3:: 3.2m .5236 J/DVd / .9 IT @ my... 0 m e I NVJDO Soc-r 2550 3 .825 mmozmto 2: 81$. omanum K2 .I COME Zh_o .26 o5 o m o e m N . . - mecca 3:83. *0 52.5.2 .33- b 29ch ......... . on»: ........ oooooooooooooo ............. oooooooooooo coco notow d 3.2m 3235 v 9 J 3 0 0 _ 3 V a I Bo:- momch .3 325 mmozmto 2: mung omanum N52 I Own-:0 Z20 m.n QASMAL 166 oooooo o v n N _ ©0000 muacm notoavm .o coneaz .o.o» QIJ/Ov'd EFF $230 .3 , werm mmozmto 9: BEE 858$. 2.23% ANNA: I COME Z.A.U 170 Moreover, the concentration of the series offenses occurs in the Pacific Beach and Mission Bay tracts, the same relative area where the northern offenses Occurred in 1971 (see Figure 7.2). Unlike 1971, all the offenses are not concentrated in the coastal area but have spread eastward and northward where the majority of the offenses are of the Open and single variety. What have these brief cartographic and verbal descriptions told us? First, rape in general is geographically variant from year to year. Second, specifically the highest rape areas vary from year to year. Third, in four out of five years of this study, the highest rape areas are attributable to the series offenders who use the same space repeatedly. Finally, even with the annual geographic variances and fluctuations in rape between 1971 and 1974, the final year 1975 experienced a profound change in the geographic distribution of rape with all offender status groups increasing radically in the northern area (Figure 7.7) and single raples increasing in their concentration in the central area (Figure 7.6). Thus, further support for the impact of a revised rape law has been generated in the form of both social and spatial evidence. The next pursuit is to construct reliable and conceptually sound spatial measures to both enhance the cartographic description and assert the individuality of each offender status group. The Shape, Area, and Density of the Offender Status Groups Centrographic measures are employed to enhance geographic description and measure geographic concepts (i.e., shape, area, and 171 density). The first important measure that needs to be discussed is the mean center. Figure 7.8 is a map of the mean centers of the crime scenes for each offender status group from 1971 through 1975. In addition, the CBD base point is plotted so one can ascertain the relative dis- persion of the mean centers within and between years. During 1971, the open cases had their mean center farthest from the base point, north of the large almost square tract known as Balboa Park. The series events are closer to the CBD, but the mean center actually represents a bimodal distribution. If you refer to Figures 7.1 and 7.2, it is apparent that the mean center is not within the large concentration of series offenses in the downtown area. The reason is that the small concentration of series offenses in the Pacific Beach-Mission Bay area pulls the mean center from the downtown concentration. The center for the single events lies east northeast of the base point. During 1971, the mean centers for each offender status group were in different directions and distances from each other and the base point. This situation does not hold true for 1972. The open cases changed in their direction and distances from the base point from 1971. Moreover, the open and single events are in close proximity in the same space. What is notable is that the single cases did not change greatly from 1971. The center for the series cases moved directly east from its 1971 position. Moreover, this center is the farthest from the CBD, but during this year, the series center is in -a north easterly direction from the base point. 172 o.N owam_a d u ...- AI 0 ~ xi— ... \SQQ u _ 36% ..I. Q q U Gum—O 2(m no >P_U a G _ 4v 9.915. T. L mD-rdhm mmozwmmo >m mmzmom mszmo m0 mmwhzwo 24m: 60MB 24m Av Av .... .oNo. nu Av Aw . ...No. Au. Au AV. . .n..: n. .u .u ..... “NNm_ nu Av nu . . . .er. gone 3...- so...» uqnnmuuwnunuadnuumnw omdnqx. mcuhzmo zop pumpcwum swnuwz posfimucoo AAANONuowoonp Aocoscoem \ousmmos afismmemonucoo oumAaoAmo ON pom: Aocozcopm u Au\aV "ouoz Noaus< An woumASOAmo ”oonsom . . oN.. oo.. V NA. mo.e. No.N. W mm.o. .om. new. oNo. . Noyce II I. _ I. I . AoN\meV Aom\ooV _ ANm\mmV . l I . . . . . eo.. No.. . om.N oo.NN _ NN.oo M oo.m. owe. .No. oNo. i mNoN A.N\.mo AoN\omo m Amm\oeo W _ W No.N om.N W «N.N w o..N . oN.N. _ .o.N. m mHN. New. NNN. eNo. I .I I . I Ao\o.V Ao.\oNV . A.N\.m. _ m _ W . ow. No.N . om.. _ mm.o. w oo.N “ o..m. . moo. ooN. ooh. mNo. . _ a a I “I I.I I JI AoN\omV ANN\mmV I AmN\omV M _ W M . NN.N ” oe.. . 4N.. m mo.o. _ No.4. W No.4. . Nmm. _ oNo. mNo. Neo. I. I W) I. I I, a II Aom\moV . AoN\omV AN\N.V d H n m c . . . _ oo.. . mm.. mo. . oo.oN M mo.N. M Nm.N. . oNe. . Now. W Noe. .No. I I. II I. I IA I. moweom . oAmcfim :omo . mofiuom . oAMCNw _ ammo m mowuow _ oAmcfiw _ some emo> . _ . II . . . 4| . Auwmcoo AmkoE OhmscmV mow< AuflemAsohAu _ III-‘11... IUIYOP 11150. No seaflooooooo .I‘IIIIII‘I 9.11!- 111.110 .mnmAIAomA ”mosoeo woumpw howsommo New mONSmmoz oflcmmNMOHucou pouovomrIm..A OAQNH ‘_MW’ " 176 rapes per square mile. These measures are for each offender status for each year. The shape or the coefficient of circularity, as mentioned in the methods of analysis section, is a measure of the out-of-roundness of the distribution. Hence, a perfect circle would have a coefficient of circularity of 1.00 while a zero value would represent a straight line.3 In Table 7.13, it is possible to determine a shape bias in the offender status groups. The series offenses, consistently through the years, have the lowest coefficient of circularity values. The limited range of the circularity values (.315 to .458) implies an almost corridor shape of the distribution. Although the mean centers of the series offenses shifted from year to year, the shape of the distributions did not vary that greatly (Figure 7.8). The coefficient of circularity for the single offense presents another situation. Constantly throughout the years, the circularity of the single incidents are rounder than the series events, but the range in circularity coefficients is much greater for the single inci- dents (.471 to .709). Therefore, among and within the years, the single events present a more circular distribution than the series events. The open events provide another picture of circularity. Through the years, these events are more circular than the series offenses. After 1971, the disparities between coefficients are even greater. The Open circularity compared with the single events shows a discrepancy for only three of the five years. In 1971, single dis- tribution was more circular than the open. It is possible that the 177 low frequency of open incidents in 1971 may have had an effect on this situation. 'However, in 1973, the coefficients are fairly even. The conclusion is that overall, each offender status group has its own individual shape or degree of circularity. The series events are more constricted in the circularity than the other groups, hence a corridor distribution. Even though the differences between the open and series events are not uniform throughout the five years, a conclu- sion that the open events are the most circular would have to be made. A plausible explanation for the differences in coefficients of circularity lies with the numbers of offenders. In the series events, there is a limited number of subjects commiting two or more incidents and the maps showing the annual rape activity clearly indicates that on the whole, series rapists tend to use the same Space repeatedly. The single events are a one to one relationship between offenders and offenses. Therefore, the difference between the single and series events is the territorality or activity space of the offenders. As for the open cases, a plausible explanation is not so available since it can be assumed that these cases are combinations of single and series events. While the shape of the standard deviational ellipse shows some difference between the offender status groups, the area of the ellipse provides an indication of the amount of space that is consumed by the offender status groups. The ellipse areas for each group by year is presented in Table 7.13. At first glance, there does not appear to be any discernible pattern in terms of values and consistency 178 through the years. The most significant aspect is the change in the areas between 1974 and 1975. For all practical purposes, the area of the open ellipse in 1975 is not too radically extreme from the previous years, but the areas of the single and series ellipses present a quite different situation. In the span of one year, both groups' areal dimensions increased in excess of two hundred percent. It is now very obvious that the revised rape law must have had an influence on the spatial expression of the single rapes. However, other factors need to be explored before a similar explanation can be afforded for the Open and series cases. A common prOperty exists for the areas of the open and series ellipses between 1971 and 1974. They both experienced a decrease in size. In the next year, the open ellipse increased slightly while the series explodes spatially. The significance of the comparisons of areal dimensions will be revealed during the discussion of density. Based on the assumption that sixty-eight percent of each group's crime scenes are contained within the area of their respective standard deviational ellipses, then one is able to determine the density of the crime scenes. Table 7.13 presents the densities for each offender status group by year. The fact that series rapists work in a small geographic area repeatedly is verified in that the densities of the series rapists are greater than the other offender status groups for 1971, 1972, and 1974. Thus, an assumed situation occurs where more information about the rape is relayed to law enforcement officials because the series 179 offender patterns himself criminologically and spatially. However, this assertion is not valid for 1973 and 1975. The explanation for 1973 has been provided previously in terms of the more mobile methods of operation which generates more trans- ferrable and tangible information, but the explanation for 1975 is not readily available. During 1975, the series rapes dispersed spatially to encompass Northern San Diego (Figure 7.7). The only significant previous incursions of series rapes had been in 1971 (Figure 7.2). However an unusual set of circumstances emerges when comparing and contrasting the series rapes for 1971 and 1975. Firstly, the frequencies of series events for both years are not too dissimilar (45 for 1971 and 43 for 1975). Secondly, both years had exactly ten offenders. Thirdly, the series events for both years had bipolar concentrations in the same relative areas. During 1971, the primary concentration was in the CBD with a secondary concentration in the Pacific Beach-Mission Bay area (Figure 7.1 and 7.2). The series events during 1975, were con- centrated in the same relative areas but the magnitudes were opposite of 1971 (Figures 7.6 and 7.7). Fourthly, the standard ellipse for 1971 had the second highest area and density, but 1975 had the highest area and second lowest density. And finally, the average number of scenes for both years are practically identical (2.5 in 1971 and 2.42 in 1975). Also, the mean distances of victim and offender concurrent movement are not very different (1.07 miles in 1971 and .96 miles in 1975). The question is, why didn't the series events also experience their highest frequencies during this time? 180 The explanation for the geographic occurrence and repetition of the series offenses probably requires a more behavioral thrust emphasizing territoriality activity patterns and behavior settings.4 The explanation for the failure of the series offenses to experience their highest frequency of the total study period is probably the same for the increase of single offenses in 1975, the revised rape law. It is assumed that the revised rape law had an impact on the reporting of rapes that especially involved the less anonymous rela- tionships and alleged victim complicity methods. The low frequency of series offenses in 1973 can be attributed to the usage of the more mobile methods of operation but the series frequency in 1975 can be attributed to a difference in the composition of the victim—offender relationships. Overall, the prOportion of series events involving strangers is 88 percent. Between 1971 and 1974, the prOportion ranged from 83.3 percent (1973) to 97.1 percent (1974). In 1975, only 76.7 percent of the series events involved strangers. The other relation— ships were one casual acquaintance, eight acquaintances, and one close or boy friend. The two most frequent series offenders (15 and 10 incidents) raped only strangers. The third highest (four cases) raped two strangers, one casual acquaintance, and one acquaintance. However, there were seven two incident's offenders. Six of them raped a stranger and acquaintance while the seventh raped an acquaintance and a former girl friend. The implication is quite clear that eight of the ten series offenders shorten their criminal careers by preying on the non-stranger victims. Hence, the revised rape law which 181 radically increased the reporting of single rapes may well be respon- sible for retarding the increase of reporting of series events from 1974 to 1975 (35 to 43 cases). The revised rape law explains the frequency and composition of the single rapes. Moreover, the centrographic measures for 1975 provides additional support for a situation of increased reporting. The influence of the law on the series offenses has been mentioned. In three years prior to 1975 (1971, 1972, and 1974), the high density of the series ellipses supports the notion of repeated use of the same geographic space. The nuances in 1973 have been explained. The open events are still inexplicable. This group's emergence to the most highly dense and least affected areal dimension in 1975 infers a similarity to the series rapes of 1972 and 1974. Also, in those years, the densities of the open and series groups were not too dissimilar. It is possible that in some years, the open events are predominantly series while in others predominantly single. The major difference is that the product of the open events results in less tangible information for the police. This is indicative of the more anonymous relationships and the more perilous methods of operation. Offender Status and Urban Ecological Structure Previous researchers have conjectured and attempted to measure the ecological areas of rape occurrence, but no one has attempted to determine if there is a difference in the ecological areas of rape when differentiated by offender status. Hence, the quest is to ascertain ecological biases. 182 Only three of the five years of this study are used in this discussion (1971, 1974, and 1975), because 1972 and 1973 were deemed to be too incompatible with censal years and land use surveys. Fifteen ecologic areas were discerned for 1971. Figure 7.9 is a map showing the distribution of the ecologic areas thoughout the city of San Diego. Since the Black and Latino minority groups loaded highly on the same factor, areas described as ethnic minority are primarily Latino while racial minority refers to black occupance. Thus. the tracts comprising ecological groups with these labels are the result of cross checking the population proportions of Blacks and Latinos. Table 7.14 portrays the ecologic associations of rape dif- ferentiated bv offender status groups. The Open events are too few to determine on an ecologic bias. The largest proportion (23.1 percent, three events) occured in the ecological area composed of racial minority families (Area X). The single events present a weak bias in the same racial minority areas with the second most prominent area being the late cycle-renters with a racial and land use mixture (Group IX). The third highest single rape area is composed of ethnic minority families (Group VII). These three types of ecologic areas account for 47.2 percent of the single incident rapes (17 cases). Besides these areas, the remaining do not appear to present a bias. The series events present more of a stronger ecological bias than the others. The predominant ecologic area is the late cycle composed of renters with a racial and land use mix (Group IX). This II III IV VI VII VIII IX XI XII XIII XIV XV 183 Legend 1971 San Diego Ecological Areas Figure 7.9 White Upper Income White Middle Income - Single and Multiple Family D.U. Small Household - Renter - Older and 25-34 Age Group Renters - Youth and Older Population Mix White Renters - 25-34 Age Group White - Middle Age - Family Large Area - Ethnic Minority Family Transport 6 Manufacturing Land Use Late Cycle - Renter - Racial Mix - Land Use Mix Racial Minority Family Racial Minority - Renter - Transport 5 Manufacturing Land Use CBD - Commercial - Male Space Youth - Public Land (Universities) Residual Military Reservations 184 LLJ z 0: g5 3 E; o 5 0 E LIJ I— _ (D D _] _ 3 B i g ..... U) _l 8 mum III ... geFII‘I‘Ifi ggwmlmmlmlffl : IW...IIIIIII' AREAS \\\\\\\ \\\\\\\ \\\\ ECOLOGICAL Figure 7.9 185 Table 7.14--Offender Status and Ecological Structure - 1971. Ecological Areas Offender Status Groups Open Single Series Total 1. White Upper Income -- -- -- -- 11. White Middle Income - Single and 2 2 4 8 Multiple Family D.U. (15.4) (5.6) (8.9) (8.5) 111. Small Household-Renters-Older and 2 2 3 7 25-34 Age Group (15.4) (5.6) (6.7) (7.4) IV. Renters - Youth and Older Population 2 2 4 8 Mix (15 4) (5.6) (8.9) (8.5) V. White Renters - 25-34 Age Group -- 2 S 7 -- (5.6) (11.1) (7-4) VI. White-Middle Age-Family l l 2 4 (7.7) (2.8) (4.4) (4.3) VII. Large Area-Ethnic Minority Family -- 4 4 8 -- (11.1) (8.9) g (8.5) V111. Transport 8 Manufacturing Land Use -- -- —- I -- -- -- -- .1, -- 1X. Late Cycle: Renter-Racial Mix-Land 1 6 13 i 20 Use Mix (7.7) (16.7) (28.9) g (21.3) ”i X. Racial Minority Family 3 7 1 I 11 (23.1) (19.4) (2.2) | (11.)) XI. Racial Minority-Renter—Trans-and »- l g 4 i 5 Manufacturing Land Use -- (2.8) (8.9) ( (5.3) 41_ 4f XII. CBD-Commercial-Male Space -- 3 i 2 ' 5 -- (8.3) I (4.4) I (5.3) XIII. Youth: Public Land (Universities) -- 3 i -’ ; 3 I -- (8 3) ' -- ' (3.2) -I XIV. Residual Group I 1 2 . 3 6 (7.77) (5.6) g (6.7) ~ (6.4) .r If XV. Military Reservations -- -- g -- ' —- ., -' -- 14_ '- -' XVI. Elsewhere San Diego County ; 1 l E —- 2 i (7.7) (2.8) I -- I (2.12) Total . 13 36 § 45 E 94 Source: Calculated by Author. Contingency Coefficient = Chi Square a 33.19; P §_.1S66; .5108; ( ) I Percent of Column Total Note: Expected Cell Frequency Less Than Five. 186 area represents the strong series events in central downtown San Diego while the series rapes in Northern San Diego occur in the ecologic area composed of white renters, primarily in the 25-34 age group (see Figures 7.1, 7.2 and 7.9). Seven of the ecological areas had a majority of their rape activity attributable to the series offenders. It is quite apparent that the low frequencies do not present strong ecological biases. Pyle's Akron study concluded that the highest rape areas were examples of urban transition, racial transi- tion, and instability.5 Perhaps a parallel situation has been found for 1971 in San Diego. The highest rape area (Group IX) consists of an older population (late cycle), renter, and a racial mix with a mixture of different land uses. Thus, the emphasis is on heterogenity which can be a rough surrogate for transition. Moreover, the relative location of this ecological area is so close to the CBD that Commercial- Male Space (Group XII) would reinforce the notion of transition (Figure 7.9). Thus, rape has a minute discernible bias in the areas of instability. Figure 7.10 is a map of the sixteen ecological areas discerned for 1974 and 1975. A comparison of the ecological associations of these two years with 1971 is not entirely possible since the factor structures differed and the number of ecologic areas discerned were not identical. But some comparisons are feasible. The obvious difference from 1971 is that the series offenders limited their assaults to a few areas in 1974 (Table 7.15). In this year, only one ecological grouping had the majority of their rape incidents attributable to the series offenders, the Late-Cycle vs. Youthful Renters. 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