IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII 3 1293 300537 4297 LIBRARY Michigan State University This is to certify that the dissertation entitled Minimum Distance Estimation In An Additive Effects Outliers Mode] presented by Sunil Kumar Dhar has been accepted towards fulfillment of the requirements for PILD. degreein Statistics in Major professor Date M MS U is an Afl‘mnafl've Action/Equal Opportunity Institution 0-12771 MSU * LIBRARIES -_—. RETURNING MATERIALS: Piace in book drop to remove this checkout from your record. flfl§§_wi11 be charged if book is returned after the date stamped beiow. MINIMUM DISTANCE ESTIMATION IN AN ADDITIVE EFFECTS OUTLIERS MODEL by Sunil Kumar Dhar A DISSERTATION Submitted to Michi an State University in partial ful lllment of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY Department of Statistics and Probability 1988 5/7742Z3/ ABSTRACT MINIMUM DISTANCE ESTIMATION IN AN ADDITIV E EFFECTS OUTLIERS MODEL BY SUNIL KUMAR DHAR Consider the additive effects outliers (A.O.) model where one observes Yj,n = Xj + an, 0 5 j _<_ n, with Xj = pxj_1 + (j, j = 0, i1, i2,..., |p| < 1. The sequence of r.v.s {Xj, j 5 n} is independent of {vj,n’ 0 S j S n} and an, 0 S j S n, are i.i.d. with d.f. (1—7n)I[x 2 0] + 7nLn(x), x E R, 0 S 7n S 1, where the d.f.s Ln’ n 2 0 are not necessarily known and cj's are i.i.d.. This thesis discusses the class of minimum distance estimators of p defined by Koul (1986, Ann. Stat. L1, 1194—1213) under the above A.O. model. These estimators are shown to be asymptotically normally distributed and their influence functions are also computed. . The second part of the thesis presents the asymptotic behavior of another class of minimum distance estimators defined by Heathcote and Welsh (1983, J. Appl. Prob. fl, 737—753) under the above model. This class of estimators is obtained by minimizing the negative of log modulus square of the empirical Y j—1,n’ function of t, for each value of the e.c.f.. Uniform consistency and uniform strong characteristic function (e.c.f.) of the residuals Y. 1 5 j S n, as a — t ,n consistency of these estimators are proven, uniformity being taken over all possible estimators defined above. The weak convergence of these estimators to a Gaussian process is also established under the above A.O. model. In both the problems it is observed that the asymptotic biases vanish if Jfi 7n = 0(1) or if Jfi 7n = 0(1) and Zn 4 0 in probability, where Zn is a r.v. with the d.f. In The asymptotic biases are non—vanishing when (5 7n -+ 7 and Zn -o Z in probability, where Z is some r.v. and 0 < 7 5 1. To my parents and my wife ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I wish to express my heart felt thanks to Professor Hira Lal Koul for being my guide during my entire stay here. I sincerely thank him for suggesting the problem, inspiring and guiding me during the preparation of this dissertation. My sincere thanks to Professor James Harman for his constant help and. encouragement. His constructive criticism was a great help in improving the results of my thesis. I am thankful to Professors James Harman, Habib Salehi and Joseph Gardiner for serving on my committee. To professor Habib Salehi I extend my special thanks for always taking interest in my well being. I wish to express my gratitude to all my teachers for everything they taught me. Finally, thanks to Ms. Cathy Sparks for typing the manuscript. CHAPTER TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 Koul's estimators in an additive effects 1.0. 1.1. 1.2. 1.3. outliers model. Introduction and summary. Assumptions and existence. A Asymptotic approximation of ph(H) when centered. Asymptotichnormality and influence function of ph(H). 2 Heathcote and Welsh's estimators in an 2.0. 2.1. 2.2. 2.3. additive effects outliers model. Introduction and summary. Definition of a class of estimators. IJniform (strong) consistency of Weak convergence of the process BIBLIOGRAPHY vi PAGE C}! 50 5O 59 CHAPTER 1. 0. Introduction and Summary. Let F and Ln’ n 2 0, be symmetric distribution functions (d.f.s) on the real line IR, symmetric about 0. Throughout this thesis F is assumed to have a density f 2 0. Let {7n’ n 2 0} be a sequence of numbers in [0,1] converging to 0 as n -» oo. Define (0.1) fln(x):= (1-7n) I[x 2 0] + 7nLn(x), x 6 IR, where I[A] denotes the indicator function of the set A. Let Cj’ j = 0, :1, i2,..., be independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) F random variables (r.v.s), with E53 < 00. Let vjn, o g j g n, be i.i.d. fin r.v.s. We consider the model in which one observes, at stage n, r.v.s Yj n’ 0 g j 5 n, satisfying (0.2) Y. = x. + v. Jan J Jan, j = 0, 1, "-a I], with {Xj} obeying the autoregressive model of order one (AR(1)), viz. (0.3) X. = pX. < 1 '= a1 a2,..., J J lpl ’ J 0, i -1 + (j) where {Xj} is stationary. Moreover, {Xj’ j 5 n} is assumed to be independent of {vj n’ 0 S j g n}, n 2 0. This chapter studies the problem of estimating p. Denby and Martin (1979) called the model in (0.2) and (0.3) the additive effects outliers (A.O.) model. All the above assumptions on {Yj’ 0 S j 5 n}, {Xj}’ {Vj,n’ 0 5 j 5 n} and {6].} will be referred to as the model assumptions. The assumptions on {vj,n’ 0 5 j 5 n} reflect the situation in which the outliers are isolated in nature. Isolated outliers are defined by Martin and Yohai (1986) as the outliers any pair of which are separated in time by a nonoutlier. Martin and Yohai (1986, page 796, Theorem 5.2 and Comment 5.1) also made the assumption of independence of the process {Xj’ j S n} and {vj,n’ j = O, 1, 2, ..., n}, n 2 0. In practice, an apprOpriate model for time series data with outliers may be difficult to Specify. Fox (1972) and Martin and Zeh (1977) point out the importance of finding the difference between various types of outliers in order to effectively deal with them. The two types of outliers in time series analysis that have received considerable attention are AC. and innovations outliers (1.0.). In the 1.0. model one observes Xj of (0.3), and that large data points are consistent with the future and perhaps the past values. On the other hand, in the AD. model outliers are generally not consistent with the past or future values of the unobservable process Xj‘ The additive effects outliers may occur due to measurement errors like key punch errors (Denby and Martin, 1979) or round off errors in which case LI1 is taken to be uniform d.f. on the interval [—.5, .5] (Machak and Rose, 1984). Denby and Martin (1979) studied the least squares estimator, M-estimators and a class of generalized M—estimators (GM—estimators) of p under the above models; they took F and LI1 to be 40,03) and 1(0,a2), respectively. Under their A.O. model all of these estimators have non—vanishing asymptotic biases with a possible reduction in biases for GM—estimators. This chapter of the thesis studies the behavior of the class of minimum distance estimators of Koul (1986)(KL) defined under the AC. model (0.2) and (0.3). To define this class of estimators, let h be any Bore] measurable function from R to R, H be any non—decreasing function on R, define —1 2 n (0.4) Sh(x,t) = n / jglhwfl,n){1[vj,Il g x + th_1,n] — — I[— Yj,n< x — th_1,n]}, x e [R and (0.5) M(t) = J 8121(x,t) dH(x), t e IR. Denote ph(H) to be a measurable minimizer of M, if it exists. Then ph(H) satisfies (0.6) inf M(t) = M[ph(H)]. KL studied this class of estimators under the 1.0. model. Among, other things, he proved that the estimator with h(x) E x has the smallest asymptotic variance within a certain class of estimators Lhm). Section 1 gives the assumptions that facilitate the small and large sample study of ph(H). It also contains a proof of the existence of ph(H). Section 2 discusses the asymptotic distribution of the pr0posed class of estimators. Theorem 2.1 uniformly approximates M(t), t 6 IR, by a quadratic function of t, uniformity taken over small closed neighborhoods of the true parameter p. Its proof uses the technique presented by KL (proof of Theorem 3.1) and Koul and DeWet (1983, proof of Theorem 5.1). The techniques of Koul and DeWet (1983, Corollary 5.1) and Koul (1985, Lemma 3.1, Theorem 3.1) are used to obtain an asymptotic approximation for (E [ph(H) - p] in Theorem 2.2. Throughout this thesis, the asymptotic bias of ph(H) is defined as the mean of the asymptotic distribution of Jfi [ph(H) — p]. Section 3 contains the study of the asymptotic normality of a suitably standardized ph(H) and its asymptotic bias. Section 3 thus begins by reproducing‘in Theorem 3.1, the Central Limit Theorem (C.L.T.) for [—mixing set of processes proved by Withers (1981, Theorem 2.1, and 1983). Lemma 3.2 gives a general method to verify that the set of processes involved in the approximation of Jfi [ph(H) - p], is a—mixing. Definitions of [-mixing and a—mixing sets of processes are as in Withers (1981) and have been restated in this section for the sake of completeness. Using Ibragimov and Linnik (1975, Theorem 17.2.2), the Lemma 3.3 gives a general method to compute the asymptotic variance. Theorem 3.1, Lemma 3.2 and Lemma 3.3 are used to prove, in Theorem 3.4, the asymptotic normality of Jfi[ph(H) — p], when apprOpriately centered. At this point, Remark 3.0 disscusses conditions under which the model assumption of symmetry of 'F or Ln's about 0, could be dr0pped in the study of the asymptotic behavior of ph(H). Theorem 3.5 contains conditions under which Lhm) has vanishing and nonvanishing asymptotic bias and Remark 3.1 states the corresponding asymptotic normality results. As in KL, Remark 3.2 notes that the Optimal estimator which minimizes the asymptotic variance is the one with h(x) 5 x. For this estimator we see that p and the asymptotic bias of than have the same sign. Remark 3.3 gives a smaller set of sufficent conditions which imply the assumptions of Section 1. Remarks 3.4 and 3.5 discuss these assumptions when H(x) E x or H is bounded, respectively. Remark 3.6 points out that all the assumptions of Section 1 are satisfied by h(x) 5 x, H given by dH = {F(1 — F)}"1dF and F either equal to the d.f. of a double exponential or A002). Finally, using Martin and Yohai (1986, Definition 4.2), under some regularity conditions, the influence function of ph(H) is computed in' Remark 3.7. The influence function turns out to be pr0portional to the asymptotic bias of 511m). Before proceeding further, observe that the process {Xj} is stationary ergodic and Xj—l is independent of ‘j’ j 2 1. From the assumptions on an's and Xj's it can be seen for each n, that the process {(Xj’ vjm), 0 S j 5 n} is stationary ergodic and hence so is {Yj,n’ 0 g j S 11}. These observations will be used in the sequel repeatedly. Notation. Throughout this thesis, by op(1) (Op(1)) is meant a sequence of r.v.s that converges to zero in probability (is tight or bounded in probability). Also, let ZIl be a r.v. with d.f. Ln, n 2 0. 1. Assumptions and existence. This section contains a list of assumptions that will be used subsequently. Using some of these assumptions it also contains a proof of the existence of Lhm) of (0.6). We begin by stating the Assumptions. . 2 _ A1. n'yn - 0(1), where 7n 6 [0,1]. A2: H is a non-decreasing continuous function such that limes |H(X) - H(y)| = IH(-X) - H(-y)| V x, y E R- H generates a unique Lebesgue—Stieltjes messure, hence H will also be used to represent a measure in the sequel repeatedly. 10' (a) 0 < 123x?J < a. (b) For some 5 > 0, 0 < E|h(X0)|2+6 < a 2 2 EXOh (X0) < 00. For some 6 > 0, sup E ] |h(x0+z)|2+5dLn(z) < oo . n xh(x)20 Vx or xh(x)$0 Vx. 0<]fde 0 such that ]|f(x—u) — f(x)| dx 5 com, v u e IR. - (a) £1151 E|X0|h2(X0)[f(x+sX0) — rm] dH(x) = 0, (b) lira; ] sxgh2(x0)[i(x+sx0) — f(x)]2 dH(x) = 0. 8—) In all the assumptions to follow 0 5 CI1 E [R are such that Cn -i 0. All: c (a) HE 533;] ‘1 ]EU |X0|h2(X0)f(x+sX0—z) dLn(z)]dH(x) ds < a. n —c II 12' 13' 14' 15' 16' 17 Note. 7 (b) 1175 X13331 E[x§h2(x0)] f2(x+sX0—z) dLn(z)] dH(x)ds < a. II - 33p ] EU |X0+zl |h(X0+z)| Ef(x+pz-jZn) dLn(z)] dH(x) < 00, holds with (a) j = 0 and (b) j = 1. 'I'Ei 222 z f2x -' z x 00, It] ] EU (x0+ ) h (x0+ )E ( +pz 1an dLn( )] dH( ) < holds with (a) j = 0 and (b) j = 1. C ° 1 11E th2Xz fszz—'dL ~ r—Irlmgcgj ] [[I 0+| (0+){](+p+s[0+itu) non} n -dLn(z)] dH(x) ds < 00, holds with (a) j = 0 and (b) j = 1. C - H71; 733—] ‘1] EU (x0+z)2h2(x0+z)] f2(x+pz+s[X0+z]—ju) dLn(u)]° II n _Cn .dLn(z)] dH(x) ds < 00, holds with (a) j = 0 and (b) j = 1. - 1m ] Eh2(Y0 n)Gn(x+pv0 n)[1 — Gn(x+pv0 n)1 dH(x) < a. n , 3 , TEE] EUh2(X0+z)[E{F(x+pz—jZn)—F(x—pz—jZn)}]2dLn(z)]dH(x) <. 00, holds with (a) j = 0 and (b) j = 1. In Remarks 3.2 — 3.6 various sets of sufficient conditions that imply the above assumptions are given. Existence. Lemma 1.1. Assume that A2 and A6 hold. Then either (i) H(IR) = 00 or (ii) H(R) < to and h(O) = implies the existence of ph(H). m. The proof will be given only for the case xh(x) 2 0 V x E IR; the proof in the case xh(x) S 0 V x 6 IR is exactly the same, with h replaced by —h. Define c(x)°= n—1/2h(0) I my. = o]{1[v. < x] — 1[— Y. < x]} x e [R ' j=1 j—1,n j,n- j,n ’ ’ (1.1) n d:= 11-1/2 2 |h(Y i= IY_ #0, b:= max Y. . j— —1,n Observe that c(x) = 0 for |x| > b and hence c is H—integrable. Now rewrite [1 (1'2) Sh(x’t) = n 1/2 j21h(Yj-1,n)I[Yj-l,n* 0]{I[Yj,n 5 th—l,n+ XI ’ — I[— Yj,n< — th—1,n+ x]} + c(x), x, t E IR. The first term on the r.h.s. of (1.2) is bounded by (1. Hence (1.3) c(x) — d S Sh(x,t) S d + c(x), t, x E IR. Further xh(x) 2 0 implies (1.4) Sh(x,t) ——i c(x) i d as t ——+ i 00. Moreover, under A2, H is continuous and by calculations similar to those in KL (equation (2.1) - (2.3)) 9 —1 (1‘5) M(t) = n E: f h(Yi-l,n)h(Yj-l,n)“H(Yim _ tYi—lm) - Hence M is continuous on R. Now consider QM} H(IR) = so. If (1 = 0 then from (1.3) M E J c2dH. Hence a trivial measurable minimizer exists. Now let (1 > 0. Since c and c2 are H-integrable, ] (c(x) a (1)2 dH(x) = a. Hence from (1.4) and the Fatou Lemma, M(t)—ioo as t—i too. This and the continuity of M ensure the existence of a measurable minimizer of M. Case (ii). H(IR) < 00. From (1.1), h(0) = 0 implies that c E 0. Thus (1.3), (1.4) and the Dominated Convergence Theorem (D.C.T.) give M(t) ——. d2H(IR) as t -—» a a. This with (1.3) and the continuity of M ensure the existence of a measurable minimizer of M. o 2. Asymptotic approximation of ph(H) when centered. For stating the main results of this section we need some more notation. Let Gn denote the d.f. of v. n + 6-, j S 11. Since v. and J J Jan 6 j are independent, (2.1) Gn(x) = (1—7n)F(x) + 7nEF(x—Zn), x 6 IR. A density of GH is 10 (2.2) gn(x) = (1-7n)f(x) + 7n Ef(x—-Zn), x 6 IR. Define 2 (2.3) cm) = ][sh(x,p) + 111/20 - p){a,(x) + anus] we), t e r, where an(x) = EY0h(Y0)gn(x + pvo) and an(x) = an(—x), x 6 IR. We shall first uniformly approximate M by Q, uniformity taken over small closed neighborhoods of p. Using this approximation we obtain the asymptotic approximation of ph(H) in terms of the minimizer of Q. From here on we shall suppress n in the r.v.s v a and Yj n, j,n’ n etc., for the sake of convenience. Theorem 2.1. Let all the model assumptions (0.1) — (0.3) hold. Further let A1 - A4, A7, A8 and A1 - A17 hold. Then for any 0 < b < 00 0 E mm Imn-mm =MU nl/zlt-pISb Proof. The techniques used in here are as in KL. Define, V x, t 6 IR, —1/2 n -1/2 W = o o— o o < o — (x,t) {n jglh(YJ_l)I[vJ ”VJ-1+6] _ x+n tYJ_1]} p(x,t) (2.4) with n—l p(x,t) = 11—1/2 2: h(Yj_1)Gn(x+n'1/2tvj_l+pv i==0 1‘1) 11 h Note that the jt summand in W(x,t) is conditionally centered, given (vj_1, Yj—1)' From (0.4) and (2.4) we get (2.5) Sh(x,n_l/2t+p) = W(x,t) + W(—x,t) + p(x,t) + p(—x,t) — I1 - 11-1/2; h(Y J=1 H)’ From (0.5) and (2.5), M(n‘1/2t+p) = ”W(x,t) — W(x,0) + W(—x,t) — W(-x,0) + + Sh(x,p) + tWK) + aI-X)l + u(-Xit) - u(-x,0) - 2 — ta(—x) + p(x,t) — p(x,0) — ta(x)] dH(x). From the above representation of M(n_l/2t+p), using (2.3), the Hélder inequality, the Transformation Theorem for integrals and A2, |M(n—1/2t+p) - Q(n_1/2t+p)| (2.6) 58|W(t) — W(0)II21 + 8|u(t) - x40) -ta|12{ + 1/2 (|W(t) — W(onfi) + 1/2 + (no) — 11(0) - talfi) ], 1/2 + 4081,02) + tla + a llfi) [ where W(t), Sh(p) and p(t) are functions W(x,t), Sh(x,t) and p(x,t) with their integrating variables suppressed and | I; denotes the square of the L2(H)-norm. From (2.6) it suffices to prove: 12 (i) E sup |u(t) - u(0) - talfi = 0(1). ItISb (ii) mg IW(t) - W(MIE, = 0(1). 2 (111) 11m E sup ISh(p) + t[a + 2: “H < 00. n ItISb Proof of (i). Define h+(x) = h(x)I[xh(x) 2 0] and h—(x) = h(x) — h+(x) v x 6 IR. Replacing h with hit in each of the functions a and It gives new functions, say a* and pi. )2 2+ 2b2, a and b in IR, From the inequality (a+b S 2a W0) — f0) - aims}? at i tn—l a; 2 (2.7) s 2] [u (tx) — u (0,X) - 51,30 th (Y,)g,(x+pvj)] dH + n—1 2 + 2t2] E j :0 tht(Yj)gn(X+pvJ-) - ai(x)] dH(x) = I(t) + 2t2 11, Itl s b, where I(t) and 11 represent the first and the second integral on the r.h.s. of (2.7), respectively. From (2.2) and (2.4) we can rewrite _1/2n—1 a; n-l/2t I(t) = Hn 1.20th (rpm—711)]O [f(x+st+pvj)—f(x+pvj)] ds + 13 + 7 nJ22]1/2t[f(x+st+pvj-Z) - f(X‘I'IWJ ‘ZII d3 dL112(1(Z)}]H(X I (2.8) g 4(1 — 7n)2] n“1/2bnn2; v2h2(v) [f(x+sY-+pv.) — f(x+pv.)]2ds dH(x) + - 1 1 1 n—l + 472] n‘1/2b 2 Y2h2(Yj-) n j— =0 n—l/Zb .] ] [f(x+sY.+pv.—z) — f(x+pv.-z)]2dLn(z) ds dH(x). —n—1/2b .I J .I Inequality (2.8) follows from the Cauchy Schwartz inequality and the moment inequality. Use (2.8), the Fubini Theorem, the stationarity of {(vj, Yj)’ 0 5 j 5 n}, (0.1) and (0.2) to get —1/2 Iililllgblfi) g 4n1/2(1-7n3)l)]nn_1/21)b] iix2h2(x0 )[f(x+sX0 )—f(x )1 2de( ) ds + + 4111/27 (1- -7n ) 2b]::: /:] EU (X0+z) )2h2(x0+z) [f (x+s[X0+z]+pz) - f(x+pz)]2 dLn(z)] dH(x) ds + (2.9) 11—1/2b + 4111/272 n(1- 7n ) bE‘l/2b ] [Bxgh2(x0)] [f(x+sX0—z) — — f(x-z)]2dLn(z)] dH(x) ds + 14 -1/2 + 4.1/2 57. j b ] EU (x,+z)2t2(x0+a. -1/ b H [I(X‘I'SIXO‘I'ZHPZ—U) - f(x+pz—u)]2dLn(u)] dLn(z)] dH(x) ds. A1 and the continuity preperty A10(b) show that the first term on the r.h.s. of (2.9) converges to zero. The remaining terms of (2.9) go to zero by A1, A4, A8(b), A11’ A13 and A15. Thus (2.10) E suprKt) — -o(1). Now consider EII = ] EEl-n— 1'2; Y.h (Y. j).gn(x+pv) — a *2d(x)] H(x) (2.11) 2(—17n)2]E[—n§1Y.h((Y.)i(x+pvj) — 2 — EY0h*(Y0)i(x+pv0)] dH(x) + + 272]131]-—n 7'20 th (Yj)] f(x+pvj—z) dLn(z) _ i 2 — EYOh 0(0)] f(x+pv0—z) dLn(z)] dH(x). The inequality (2.11) follows from (2.2) and the inequality (a+b)2 s 2a2+ 2b2, a and b in IR. From Al, A4, A b), A b) and 8( 13( the stationarity of (vj, Yj)’ 0 S j S n—l, the 2nd term in (2.11) goes to zero as n -1 00 and theJ first term can be written as l5 2n‘1(1-7n)2 ] Var{Y0h*(Y0)f(x+pv0)} dH(x) + (2.12) -2 2 n—l . :l: + 4n (1—7n) 2 (11-7)] Cov{Y0h (Y0)f(x+pv0), i=1 , th*(Yj)i(x+pvj)} dH(x). The first integral in (2.12) can be written as (1—7n)Ex3h2i(x0)] i2(x) dH(x) + + 7n] EU (X0+Z)2{h*(X0+Z)}2f2(x+pz) dLn(z)] dH(x) _ — (1-‘rn)2[153X0h"‘(xo)]2 ] f2(x) dH(x) _ — 27n(1—7n)Ex0h*(x0)] 1002]] (x0+z)h*(x0+z)i(x+pz) dLn(z)]- ~dH(X) — _ 7121 HE] (X0+z)h*(X0+z)f(x+pz) dLn(z)] 2dH(x), which in turn converges to Var[XOhi(X0)]] f2dH. This follows from A1, A4, A7, A13(a), the moment inequality and the Hdlder inequality. Hence the first term in (2.12) converges to zero. The second term in (2.12) can be written as n—l 4n-2(1—7n)4.21 (n—j)Cov{x0hi(x0), xjh*(xj)}] i2dH + J: 16 + 4n—27n(1—7n)3 DE: (n—j) Cov[X0 h'h(X0 )f(x), ,] (xj +z)h* (x. +z)f(x+pz) dL n(2)] dH(x )+ (2.13) + 4 2 311—1 * n 7,0- 7,)j§ (n1) Cov[x,h (xj)f(x). ,] (x 0+z)h*(x0+z)i(x+pz) dLn(z)] dH(x) + + 4n 2117 2(1- 7n )2 jEI l(n—j) CovU (X0+z)h (X0+z)f(x+pz) dL n(z ), , ] (Xj+z)h (Xj+z)f(x+pz) dLn(z)] dH(x). By assumptions A1, A 4, A7, and A13(a) and the Hiilder inequality, the second, third and the fourth terms in (2.13) go to zero. Since, (2.14) Var{n 121] X."'h (Xj )}= l: nIOVar[X h (X0)] + 2n_2 jEl (n—j) Cov{X0 h (X to prove that the first term in (2.13) goes to zero, from A4, A7 and (2.14) it suffices to prove that n (2.15) Var{n"1 2 xjh*(xj)} -» 0 as n e 00. i=1 But from A4 and the Stationary Ergodic Theorem 11 (2.16) {12 x.h*(x.) .7 nxohfixo) a.s.. j=1 J J 17 Also, from A 4, the sequence {th:(Xj)} is uniformly integrable of order 2, hence so is the sequence {n12 X h (Xj )}, which follows clearly from j=1-‘ Chung (1974, exercise 9, p. 100). Thus, from (2.16), (2.15) follows, which in turn gives (2.17) E11 4 0 as n a 00. Thus (2.10) and (2.17) applied to (2.7) prove (i). Proof of (ii). Replace the h in w by hit and call the new r.v. wi. Fix t in [—b,b]. Using the Fubini Theorem and the fact that the jth summand in W* is conditionally centered, given (vj_1, Yj_1), Elwm) - when?I (2.18) _ --J1J'in21ijE[{h (Y _1)}2E[{I[Vj+£j g x+n'1/2th_1+pvj_1] — —1 2 — I[vj+cj S x+pvj_1] — Gn(x+n / tY._1+pv. J H) + +G nj_(x+pv 2v(j_1,Y )2. )H dH(x), which can be dominated by 2 E{hi(Y )}2IG (x+n—1/2tY + v ) — G (x+ v )| dH(x) 0 n 0 P 0 n p 0 ' Using (2.1), the Fubini Theorem and representation of F in terms of its density, this term can be dominated by 18 j E|X0|h2(X0)f(x+Xos) dH(x) ds + J EU IX0+ZIh2(X0+z)f(x+pz+s[x0+Z]), . dLn(z)] dH(x) ds + (2.19) J EU |X0|h2(X0)f(x—z+Xos) dLn(Z)] , - dH(x) (is + In” |X0+z|h2(X0+z)J f(x—u+[X0+z]s+pz) . - dLn(u) dLn(z)] dH(x) ds. From Al, A3(a), A4 and A10(a) the first term in (2.19) converges to zero. That the remaining terms also converge to zero, follows from A1, A11(a) and A14, giving (2.20) E|w*(t) — w‘=(0)|12I .7 o, t 6 IR. Thus to complete the proof of (ii), use the monotone structure of Wi and pi, the compactness of [-b,b], HE ElalfI < co and (i), just n as in Koul and Dewet (1983, p. 929, Theorem 5.1, proof of (ii)). The details are similar, hence deleted. 19 Proof of (iii). From (2.5) taking t = 0, we get (2.21) S(x,p) = W(x,0) + W(—x,0) + n + n 1/2j21h(Yj-l){Gn(x+pvj—l) — Gn(x—pvj_1)}. We shall now proceed to prove that (2.22) l'iTn- E|S(p)|I21 < a. n Using the fact that the summands in W are conditionally centered, the stationarity of the process (vj’Yj)’ 0 S j S n—1 and the Fubini Theorem, E J W(0)2 dH 1+6. 5 x] — an_(x+pv12)} dH(x ) I .— { [vJ (W J (2.23) =1 En 1 21h2(Y. J: = J 13‘,112(Y0){I[vl-pv0+c1 S x] - Gn(x+pv0)}2 dH(x). The lim sup of the r.h.s. of (2.23) is finite by A , A (b) and A 1 3 16 Next, using the stationarity of (vj’ Yj), 0 5 j g n—1, n-1 EJ {fl/21.20 h(Yj)[Gn(x+pvj) — once-7779]}2 dH(x) (2.24) = j Eh2(Y0)[Gn(x+pv0) — Gn(x—pv0)]2 dH(x) + 20 —1 + 2:14:31 (n-l') E[h(Yo)[Gn(X+P‘/o) - G,(x—pvo)lh(Yj)o -[Gn(x+pvj) — Gn(x—pvj)]] dH(x). The lim sup of the first term on the r.h.s. of (2.24) is finite by (0.1), A1 and A17. The expression inside the sum in the second term on the r.h.s. of (2.24) can be written as (2.25) (n—j)7121J EU h(X0+z)[Gn(x+pz) — Gnu-772)] dLn(z)- .1 h(Xj+z)[Gn(x+pz) — end—772)] dLn(z)] dH(x), which follows from the independence of {Xj’ j S n} and {vj, 0 S j 5 n} and the latter being i.i.d. fin. Thus applying the Cauchy—Schwartz and the moment inequalities to the integrand in (2.25) and using the stationarity of {Xj}’ the second term on the r.h.s. of (2.24) can be dominated by (2.26) (n—1)712J EU h2(X0+z)[Gn(x+pz) — Gn(x—pz)]2dLn(z)]dH(x). From A1 and A17, the lim sup of (2.26) is finite. Hence (2.22) holds. The proof of (iii) now follows from rm E|a|12I < 00, which in turn follows n from (2.2), A4, A7, A8(b) and A13. This also completes the proof of the theorem. D Note. In Theorem 2.1, the proof of (2.15) gives an alternate way to prove KL's equation (14), p. 1211. 21 In order to prove the next theorem, analogous to the definition of [311(11), define Lh(H) with M replaced by Q. Using the definition of 511m), (0.4), (2.3) and the fact that Sh(-,p) is even, 311(9) [§+a] dH Mam — p) = —j [Mala (2.27) Sh(p)a = — 21—7 dH. |3+§|H Theorem 2.2. In addition to the assumptions of Theorem 2.1, let us assume that A6 holds and also for each 11 let ph(H) be a measurable minimizer of (0.5); then (228) n1/2Ip,(H) - pl = n1/21p,(H) - pl + 0,0). Proof. The line of proof is as follows: (i) For any 17 > 0 and 0 < z < 00 there exists a N and b, 0 < b < 00, depending on n and z such that P( inf M(n—1/2t+p) 2 z) 2 1— 17 ‘v’ n 2 N. |t|>b (n) 7/fi 173,01) — pl = 0,0) and «a lp,(H) - pl = 0,0). (iii) Mlphlnll = lehmll + 0,0) and Mlph(H)l = leh(H)l + 0,0)- 22 Proof of (i) follows exactly as in Koul and Dewet (1983, Corollary 5.1) or Koul (1985, Lemma 3.1). Proof of (ii) follows from (i), (2.22) and the reasoning given in Koul (1985, Theorem 3.1). Proof of (iii) follows from (ii) and Theorem 2.1. From (iii) and (2.27) we get (2.29) nlp,(Hl - 73,01)? |a+2l§ = 0,0) From (2.2), (2.3) and the symmetry of the function gn w.r.t. to the y—axis, we get |a+a_|fI = 4(1-7n)2[EX0h(X0)]2 j g3 dH + 2 2 (2.30) + 7n) [EJ (X0+z)h(X0+z)[gn(x+pz)+gn(—x+pz)] dLn(z)] dH(x) + + 47n(1—7n)EX0h(X0) J gn(x)EU (X0+z)h(X0+z) . - le,(x+pz)+e,(—x+pzll dL,(zl] dH(x). From Al, A2, A4, A7, A8(b), A12, the moment and the Holder nd rd inequalities, the 2 and 3 terms on the r.h.s. of (2.30) go to zero and the 1St term converges to _ 2 2 (2.31) 2q _ 4[EX0h(X0)] Jr dH. From A3, A6 and A7, the r.h.s. of (2.31) is strictly greater than zero. Hence from (2.29) the proof is complete. I: 23 Note. In order to study the limiting distribution of n1/2[ph(H) — p] we need to apprOpriately center (2.28). In view of the Theorem 2.2, for fixed h and H, the asymptotic behavior of ph(H) will not be affected if for each n 2 0, ph(H) is replaced by any convex combination of the measurable minimizers of (0.5). Further note that the proofs of Theorems 2.1 and 2.2 only need Eh2(X0) < co instead of A3(b). 3. Asymptotic Normality and Influence function of ph(H). In this section we apply Withers (1981), (1983) C.L.T. for Z—mixing sequence of arrays. We also discuss the sufficient conditions under which the asymptotic bias of ph(H) is vanishing or nonvanishing. Finally we compute the influence function and show that it is directly proportional to the asymptotic bias of Lhm). To study the limiting distribution of JH [ph(H) — p] when centered, from (2.27), (2.30), (2.31) and Theorem 2.2, we need only to study II (3.1) — (In-”21,31 h(Yj_1)pn(Yj—ij_rl when centered, where q > 0 is as in (2.31) and (3.2) (pact) = J a dH — I a dH. Let p, = Eh 0 and n1 2 0, 5 satisfies the moment inequality 1+17/2+n (3.11) sup Elsn(a,h)|2+’7 = 0(b 1 a,n ) as b-loo. g is Z—mixing and for all real u (3.12) l(k,u) = o(k—5) as k -+ on, where 6 = 2171/17. (3.13) 0121-400 as 11—400, Limofi/n>0 n and m (3.14) 2 c(j) < .0. i=0 Then 031(sn— ESn) —7 40,1) in distribution. 27 Lemma 3.2. Let 0 n’ w be Borel measurable functions from IR2 to IR and £1.11: 9n(Yj-1,Yn’l'n {Xj’ j = 0, $1, $2,..} is a stationary process that is strongly aX—mixing )11 Let an=w(Xj, vjn)’ where (Ibragimov and Linnik, 1971, Definition 17.2.1) and the sequence of independent r.v.s 0 5 j g n} is independent of {Xj’ 0 S j S n}, {V vj,n’ n 2 0. Then 5, as in (3.5) with (1n = 1 and N11 = n, is strongly org—mixing with (3.15) 05 _<_ ax. Proof. In (3.6) let 0 = (€1,n”’°’€j,n)’ ¢= (5 €j+k n’” ”énn)’ I = [(€I,n""’€j,n) .6 B1] and J = [(§j+k,n,...,§n,n) e 82],. where 131 e 3 (1111), the Borel a—field, and 132 e 3(an_J_k+1), l g j g n, 2+j S j+k S 11. Let us suppress the n in vj n and define 7,171 .: 111“ -7 le [X0,X 11'" 'ij " [011W 0"", 9nX(XJ-_17Xj)]7 , j+1 j+1 TY’j'J'l. [R -1 IR [x0,x1,...,xj] -1 [111(x0,v0),...,w(xj,vj)] and T* vby 13* andjby Y ,n-j—k+2 by replacing in T yd+1’ * n—j—k+1, where v: (v v0, v,1...,vj) and v = (vj+k—1"”’vn)' Then, |P(10J) - P(1)1’(J)| = 28 = |P[{w(x,.v0),...,p(xj.vjll e 7111,03,), _1 {‘“(XHk-l’Vj+k-1)"""”(Xn"’n)} e 6...,_k+7<87>] — - r[{.(x,,v,1,....pl e 21331)]- _1 'P[MXHk-livj+k_1)p---p“’(xn1"n)} E ¢1.n-l'-k+1(B2)] I —1 —1 (3.16) g E[|P[(X0,...,Xj) 6 TN. +1¢1,J.(B1), (xj+k_1,...,xn) e ,..-1 —1 _ E Ty ,n—j-k+2¢1,n—j-k+1(B2)] —1 —1 — P[(x0,...,xj) e TY, j +161,1.(131)] P[(Xj+k_1,...,Xn) e (v0"”’vj’vj+k—1"’"Vn)]‘ ,..-1 -1 E Ty ,n—j—k+2¢1,n—j-k+l(B2) ] Inequality (3.16) holds because for all k 2 2, (V0""’Vj’vj +k—1""’Vn) is a sequence of independent r.v.s and independent of (X0,...,Xn). From the definition of strongly cit—mixing sequence of stationary r.v.s, and the stationarity of {Xj}’ we see that the r.h.s. of (3.16) can be bounded by. ax. Taking sup over all B1 and B2 in .2 (W) and .2 (an—j—kH) and then taking max twice as in (3.7), we get that (3.15) holds. 13 Note. The proof of the Lemma 3.2 goes through even when w and 0n are replaced by can and 01711 for each j and n. 29 Lemma 3.3. Define 5]. n as in Lemma 3.2 satisfying all the conditions there. In addtion, let {vj n’ 0 5 j 5 n} be identically (3.17) distributed fln , with 7116 [0,1], 7n = 0(1) and ax satisfying, for any n > 0 E lozx(j)'1 < oo. j-l Further let 0 and h, be real valued Borel measurable (3.18) functions with 0 defined on R2 and h on R, such that 011$(x,y) Ch(x) and 0 Il(x,y) -1 0(x,y) for each x, y 6 IR, 00, (3.19) E|h(o(x0))|2+5 < a and sup EJ |h(w(X0,z))|2+6dLn(z) < to, II where w(-) =w(-,0); then (3.20) 11—10121: ’1Var 2 g. j=112n 3 where (3.21) r2=Var[0(w(X0),w(X1)]+2j§100v[0{w(X0),w(X1)},0{w(Xj),w(Xj+1)}]. Proof. From the definition of Y's and the conditions satisfied by Xj's JH and v. 's, {Yj 11’ 0 S j 5 n} is stationary, hence we can write 2n—l (3.22) {10:11 =Var(51n)+— j2 (n —j)Cov[0n (Y 1n),6n(vj,n,vj+1’11)]. 0, n’Y From (0.1), the definition of Yj n's and the conditions satisfied by Xj's and vjn's, 30 (3.23) Var(t1,,) = (1-7,)2E0,2,{w(xol.w(x1)} + + 7,(1-7,)Ej 0,2,{w(Xo).w(X1.z)} dL,(z) + + 7n EJ 0§{w(X0,z),w(X1,vl’n)} dLn(z) — (251,192, which in turn converges to the first term on the r.h.s. of (3.21). The above convergence follows from 711 = 0(1), (3.18), (3.19) and the DOT. From (0.1), the definition of Yj n's and the conditions satisfied by Xj's and vj n's, for j 2 2, we get Cov[0n(Y0,n,Y1,n)a (Yj,n’Yj+1,n)1 = (1—7n)4Cov[0,{114X0)1“’(X1)}’ 0,1{111(Xj).w(Xj +1)}] + + ,n(1—7n)3Cov[0n{tp(xo),w(xl)}r J0,{w(XJ-72)7W(Xj+1)}‘1Ln(z)] + + 7n(1-7,)3COVU ”n{w(xopz)7“(X1)}dLn(z)l”n{“’(xj)""(xi+1)}1 + + 7n(1—7,)3CovHonmxohuixliz” dLn(Z)’0n1“’(Xj)’w(XJ+1)}1 + + 7,(1-1,)3COV[”n{“’(xo)’“1xl)1’1 11n{t(xj),cp(xj +1,z)}dL,(z)] + + 7121(1_7n)200v[0n{,,(x0),u(xl)}, fl 0111‘“x j’z)’w(xj+1’u)} . ~dLn(z) dL,(u)] + (3.24) + 7,2,(1-7,)2CovU0,{u(X0).w(X1,z)} dL,(z). 7 I 0n{"-’(Xjaz)r“'(xj+1)} dLn(Z)] + 31 7121(1—7n)200v ”J 0n{w(X0,z),w(Xl,u)} dLn(z) dLn(u), , o,{p(le.p(xj+,)}] + 7,2,(1—7,)2Cov[[ o,{p(x,,z).p(x,)} dL,(z). , j o,{p(le.w(xj+,.zll dL,(zl] + 7,2,(1-7,)200v[[ 0,{w(X0.z).w(X1)} dL,(z). .jo,{w(xj,z).p(xj+,ll dL,(zl] + 7121(1‘7DJZCOVU 0n{w(X0),w(Xl,z)} dLn(z), , j 0n{w(Xj),w(Xj+1,z)} dLn(z)] + 73(1-7,)Cov[[ 0,{w(xo.z),w(X,)} dL,(z). . fl 0,1ptxj.z).p(xj+,,u)l dL,(z) dL, 0 n 111/2 21% } -7 ADJ?) in distribution. j- J,Il j,n (ii) Let Al — A17 and all the model assumptions (0.1) to (0.3) hold. Then (3.28) n1/2[ph(H )— p + Iraq—1] -+ 40,0121) in distribution, where (3.29) 6,21 = q—2[EXoh(X0)]2Eh2(X0)E¢2(cl), y (3.30) ,p(y)=j th—I de VyeIR, q is as in (2.31) and ”n as in (3.3). Proof. We shall prove (i) and then prove (ii) using a special case of (i). In view of Theorem 3.1 we shall first show that (3.11) holds for 5 as in (3.5) and (3.17). Let 17 = 6 as in (3.19) and 111 = 1+6/2 then E3n(ab)2+6 (3.31) ,2?” IA E|0 H(YYOD, IA 01(1-7,lElh{p(x0)112+1 + 7,13Ilhlptxopll12+15 dL,(zll. 34 The above inequality follows from the definition of Yj n's and the conditions satisfied by Xj's and vj n's, (0.1), (3.18) and the Jensen inequality . From (3.19), (3.11) is satisfied. From the Lemma 3.2 and (3.9), (3.12) is satisfied. From Lemma 3.3 and r2 > 0, (3.13) is satisfied. Since {Yj’ 0 S j 5 n} is stationary, cn in (3.10) can be written as Cn(j) = SUPICOVICIJV €|d_ml+l,n“1 where sup is taken over {d, m: |d—m| 2 j}. From this, (3.10), the same argument as in (3.26) to (3.27) and (3.19), we get (3.32) «20) s 80ax(i—1)‘5/(2+ ‘1), Vi _>. 2. From the conditions satisfied by ax in (3.17), (3.19) and (3.32), (3.14) is satisfied and hence the C.L.T. holds for 5. proof of (ii). We shall first show that the C.L.T. holds for 5 as in (3.3) and (3.5). Thus take in (i), 0n(x,y) = h(x)¢n(y—px), x, y 6 IR, Yj’ Xj and vj n as in the model assumptions (0.1) - (0.3) with w(x,y) = x+y. (D Note X. can be as. represented as 2 pkc. k' Using A3(a), J k=0 J" A9 and Pham and Tran (1985, Theorem 2.1) with 5 = 2, A(k) = pk, we get that {Xj} is strongly (ix—mixing with ax(n) g Cplplzn/3 V n 2 1. Also note from A1, A7, A8(a) and (2.2) x x (3.33) J gn dH -+ I f dH uniformly in x. -00 -oo 35 Thus the r.h.s. of (3.4) converges to EX0h(XO)¢(y), uniformly in y, by (3.33), A1, A3 and A12. By A7, 16 is bounded and hence tbn is uniformly bounded. Since F is symmetric about 0 and 11) is an odd, E¢(£1) = 0. Thus letting 0(x,y) = h(x)i/)(y—px)EX0h(X0), x, y 6 IR in Lemma 3.3 we see 72 = afiqz. From (3.29), (3.30), A3 and A7, 0121Q2 > 0. We now see that all the conditions of (i) are satisfied. Hence C.L.T. holds for 5 as in (3.3), (3.5). Thus from (2.27), (2.30), (2.31) and Theorem 2.2, (ii) holds. 1:1 Remark 3.0. One of the assumptions under which we have studied the asymptotic behavior of ph(H) as an estimator of p is F and Ln’s are I symmetric about 0. One could generalize the results by making an attempt to discard this assumption. A careful study of the results shows that due to this change, the arguments involved in the proof of (2.22) fail. The proof of the Theorem 2.2 can be easily modified without this assumption of symmetry or any additional assumptions. In view of the Theorem 3.1, the Lemmas 3.2 - 3.3 and the Theorem 3.3(i) we see no addtional modifications are needed to incorporate this change. Thus it only remains to modify the arguments from (2.21) - (2.26). Note in (2.21) and (2.24) we need to replace Gn(x-pv0) by 1 — Gn(—x+pv0), since GI1 is not symmetric. Thus in view of (2.24) we will now need rim I Eh2(Y0)[Gn(x+pv0) + Gn(—x+pv0) — 1]2 dH(x) < o. . 36 Qase (i). Let F be symmetric about 0 but Ln's need not be symmetric about 0. In this case (2.25) can be replaced by (n—1)7;";[(1-7,)2Eh(x0)h(xj)j [E{F(x-Z,)+F(—x-Z,)-1}l2dH(x) + + (1—7n)j [E{F(x—Zn)+F(-—x—Zn)-l}]- _ .E[h(x0)j Eh(Xj+z)[Gn(x+pz)+Gn(—x+pz)—1] dLn(z)] dH(x) + + (1—7,)j IE{F(x-Z,)+F(-x-Z,)-1}l- -E[h(Xj)J Eh(X0+z)[Gn(x+pz)+Gn(—x+pz)—l] dLn(z)]dH(x) + + J EU h(X0+z)[Gn(x+pz)+Gn(—x+pz)-l] dLn(z). J h(Xj+z)[Gn(x+pz)+Gn(—x+pz)—l] dLn(z)] dH(x)]. Thus in view of the arguments involved in (2.26) and under proper assumptions Theorem 2.1 holds. Qase (ii). Both Ln's and F need not be syrmnetric about zero. In this case we will need to assume for each n 2 1, Eh(Y0)[Gn(x+pv0)+Gn(-x+pv0)—1] E 0, after that we can use the same technique as presented in Lemma 3.3 and some limit theorem to prove (2.22). Theorem 3.5. Let all the model assumptions (0.1) — (0.3), A1, A2, A4, A5, A7, A8(b), A13 and A16 — A17 hold; then 37 (a) If h is a continuous function on R and Zn -1 Z in distribution and 75711-170 then fipn-ip,where 0<7CEIR and (3.34) ,7 = 7c[EX0h(XO)]J f(x)EJh(X0+z){F(x—pz)—F(x+pz)}dLn(z) dH(x). (b) If either Z n -1 0 in distribution or ,5 7n -1 0 then Jr? ”11 -) 0. 13201. From (2.27) and (3.1) — (3.3), .63 ”n = E J Sh(p)a dH. For large enough n we shall justify the interchange of expectation and integral above using the Fubini Theorem. Consider (3.35) I ElSh(p)| |a| dH 3 U 2312107) dH]1/2U a2 dH]1/2. Inequalitity (3.35) follows from the Hdlder and the moment inequalities. That the lim sup of the r.h.s. of (3.35) is finite follows from (2.22) and the same reasoning as in (2.30) and (2.31). Thus, by the stationarity of the process (Vj—l’ Yj—l)’ the independence of (vj__1, Yj-l) and vj + cj, 1 S j S n, and (0.1), for large enough 11, we get (3.36) ,5 ”n = Jfi'ynj a(x)EJ h(X0+z)[G(x—pz) — G(x+pz)] dLn(z) dH(z). Using (2.1) and (2.2), (3.36) can be rewritten as 38 75 7,0—7,)3Ex,h(xo)j f(x)Ej h(x0+z)1F(x—pz) - le+pz>l~ - dLn(z) dH(x) + + .5 7§(1-7,)21Exoh(x0)lj EF(x—Z,)EI . - h(X0+z)[F(x—pz) — F(x+pz)] dLn(z) dH(z) + (3.37) + Jfi 7121(1-7n)J E (X0+z)h(X0+z)gn(x+pz) dLn(z)] - E h(X0+z)[F(x—pz) — F(x+pz)] dLn(z)] dH(x) + + .(n 731 I a(x)EJ h(X0+z)E[F(x—pz-Zn) — F(x+pz—Zn)]dLn(z)dH(x). The fourth term in (3.37) converges to zero by A1, A17(b), the same reasoning as in (2.30), (2.31) and the Hfilder inequality. The third term in (3.37) converges to zero by A1, A13, A17(a), the Hiilder and the moment inequalities. That the second term in (3.37) converges to zero follows from A1, A4, A8(b), A17(a), the Hiilder and the moment inequalities. For each x 6 IR, EJ h(X0+z)[F(x-pz) — F(x+pz)] dLn(z) (3.38) 7 RIM X0+z)[F( (x-pz) - F(x+pz)l dL 0 3 a continuous function 65” vanishing outside a compact set such that (3.41) lg)” — le < 7). Consider II f(x)f(x+s) dH(x) — I f(x)f(x+t) dH(x) 3 II f(x)If(x+s) — p,(x+s)] dH(x)I + (3.42) + II f(x)[¢n(x+s) — ¢n(x+t)I dH(x)| + + II f(x)[¢n(x+t) — f(x+t)I dH(x) The continuity of I f(x)f(x+u) dH(x) as a function of u now follows from (3.41), (3.42), A7, uniform continuity of the function a)", the H61der inequality and the translation invariance of the Lebesgue measure. We shall now prove that A16 holds. Note A16 holds if AL). holds, where * A16: (a) I F(X)[1 — F(x)] dH(x) < e . (b) 1175 I EF(x—-jZn){1 — EF(x—-Zn)} dH(x) < a. , j = 0, 1. 42 (c) 131m IEU h2(xosz)F(x+pz)[i—EF(x+pz—zn)] dLn(z)I dH(x) < to. (d) 11m I EUh2(X0+z)EF(x+pz—jZn)[1—EF(x+pz—jZn)]dLn(z)I dH(x) < 00 , j = 0, 1. Since F is continuous and Elcll < 00, we have oo 0 (3.43) I [1 — F(x)] dx < co and I F(x) dx < a. 0 - 00 Thus 00 0 I F(X)[1 — F(x)] dx 5 I (1 — F(x)] dx + I F(x) dx < a. 0 -00 Using the Fubini Theorem, the translation invariance of the Lebesgue measure and A5, we see that A:6(d) with j = 0 follows from A:6(a) and also to prove A:6(b) with j = 1 is the same as to prove A:6(d) with j = 1. A:6(b) with j = 1 can be rewritten as IIIF( x[)1 — F( (x—z+u)] dx dLn(z) dLn(u) (3.)44 =IIIF(x)[1 — F( (x—z+u)] dx dL n(z) dL n(u )+ + IIIO FIX111‘FIX“+“)I dx dL,(z) dL,(u). The second term in (3.44) is bounded by the 2nd term in (3.43). Now 43 consider the first term in (3.44), which can be written as III F(x)[l — F(x—z+u)]I[u 2 z] dx dLn(z) dLn(u) + (3.45) + IIIO F(x)[1 — F(x—z+u)]I[u < z] dx dLn(z) dL,(u)- The first term in (3.45) is bounded by the first term in (3.43). Rewrite the second term in (3.45), using change of variable and splitting the range of integration, as III:—Z F(x+z—u [)1 — F(x)]I[u < 2] dx dL n(z) dL 11‘“ )+ (3.46) + II F(x+z—u)[l - F(x)]I[u < z] dx dLn(z) dLn(U). The first term in (3.46) is bounded by 2E|Zn|. Hence from S 4 we get that the lim sup of the first term in (3.46) is finite. The second term in (3.46) is bounded by the first term in (3.43); consequently A:6(b) and A:6(d) with j = 1 hold. By the Fubini Theorem, the symmetry of Ln's about 0 and the translation invariance of the Lebesgue measure, A:6(c) can be written as 131m E{I h2(X0+z) dLn(z)} I F(x)[1 — EF(x—Zn)] dH(x), :1: which is the same as proving A16(b) with j = 0, in view of A5. 44 Proceeding exactly as in (3.44) — (3.46) and using (3.43), S 4 and A5, we get that A:6(c) holds. Remark 3.5. In case H generates a finite measure, all the assumptions of Section 1 reduce to Al - A7, A9, A10(b), A11(b), A15 and, A8(b) and A13 with lim sup replaced by sup. PM. From A5 and the fact that H generates a finite measure, we see A16 and A17 are easily satisfied. Using the H6lder inequality, A5 and A15(b), we see A14(b) holds. Using the Hdlder inequality, A5 and A15(a), we see A14(a) holds. Using the Héilder inequality, A3(b) and A11(b), we see A11(a) holds. Using the moment inequality and A13 with lim sup replaced by sup, we see A12 holds. Using A3(b), A10(b) and the Héilder inequality, we see A10(a) holds. Using A8(b) with lim sup replaced by sup and the moment inequality we see A8(a) holds. Remark 3.6. For H given by dH = 17%? where f(x) = 2_1exp{—|x|}, x 6 IR, [Note here we could take f to be the density function of a 40,02” we shall show that in view of Remark 3.3, the assumptions in Section 1 reduce to A1, 713(5), 33, A4 — A6, and S5: 56: 131m nI h2(X0+z)exp{|pz|} dLn(z). liTn—EeprZ|0 and sea’. From (1.1) weget n (2.4) M,(pi«5.s) — M,(p.s) = - s 2IopIIn 1215110le,- -(p1=6)Y,-_ll}|2/ J: —1 11 2 /In 2 exp{is[Y. — pY._1]}| I. j=1 J J The r.h.s. of (2.4) can be written as _ s_2logIIn-lj§1[exp{is[Yj- (pt6)Yj_1] — exp{is[Xj- (p:t6)Xj_1]} + 53 (2.5) + exp{islxj- (M)j_1l}II/Inj_l§[-exr>{iSIYj(NJ--11}- 2 - exp{islx, - px,_,l) + explislxj - px,_,l)I I. From Lemma 2.1 and the Stationary Ergodic Theorem (S.E.T.), (2.5) converges in probability (a.s.) to -2 2 2 2. — ( 6) s 1°g{l¢x1—(p46)x0(311 /|¢,l(s)l 1, where 43X denotes the characteristic function of a r.v. X. Under the assumptions I())f (s)| > 0 and |¢X (s)| < 1, (2.6) > 0 V s e of 1 0 Thus for sufficiently large n, with large probability (with probability 1), a minimum is achieved at the true value p. If the distribution of 61 is infinitely divisible then [966 (s)| > 0 V s 6 cf is satisfied. Also, if the 1 distribution of ‘1 is not lattice type then |¢X (3)] < 1 V s e of 0 follows from (6X (3) = ¢X (ps)¢€ (s) and Chung (1974, Theorem 6.4.7). 1 0 1 Lemma 2.2. If ¢n(t) are characteristic functions on Rk such that ¢n(t) " 41(1) for each t 6 RR, then for any compact subset K of R1" ~ ~ sup 171,0) - 12(1)) .. o. tEK ~ Proof. The proof follows from Ash (1974, p. 333, Theorem 3.2.9). 0 54 Lemma 2.3. Let X1, X2,... be a sequence of strictly stationary and ergodic random vectors taking values in Rk. Then (2.7) PUT-IE sup IFn(xl,...,xk)-F(x1,...,xk)| = 0) = 1, -oo’ Now the lemma follows from (2.10) and (2.12). :1 56 Next, set (243) M(t,s) = - s'zlosl¢,1(8)¢XO(SIp-tl)l2. 0.8) e K x pp: Note that (2.14) M(t,s) 2 M(p,s) V s and hence inf M(t,s) = M(p,s) V s. tEK Theorem 2.5. Let Xj's and vj n's be as in Lemma 2.4 with (2.15) |¢61(s)| > 0 and 0 < |¢X0(s[p-t])| < 1, s E of and t E K — {p}. Then the following statements hold: (a) Under (a) of (2.3), (2.16) sup lpn(s) - pl -) 0 in probability. set»! (b) Under (b) of (2.3), (2.16) holds with probability convergence replaced by almost sure convergence. Proof. The proof of (b) is as in Csiirgii (1983, p. 345, Theorem 4.1). We shall give the proof of (a). From (1.1) and (2.13), lM,(t.s)-M(t.s)l s Colos[{D,(t.s)/l¢,1(s)l2l¢xo(s[/rtl)|2} + 1]. where C0 = sup{s_2: s E 9?}. Since inf 1p, (9121px (plptlll2 > o. (s,t)6e7kK 0 57 Lemma 2.4 and the above inequality imply that (2.17) sup |Mn(t,s) — M(t,s)l = op(1). (t,s)Ede’ From (1.2), (2.14) and (2.17) (.213) sugIMn( (p(s s)—M(p,s)I = EJI’IEIIESU M (t s) 1211; M(t,s) = op(1). For 6 > 0, let K(6) = K — {tzlt-pl < 6}. Then, (2.17) also implies (2.19) suEVIinf M (t s) — inf M(t,s) = op(l). teK( 6) teK( 6) Suppose that (2.20) sup | p (s ) — pl does not converge to zero in probability. sea Then 3 770, 771 > 0 and a sequence of integers nk I 00 such that (2.21) P(supl/3 (s) —pl > ,) > 7. set»! 11k 1 0 Let 1) = 3_linf |M(p,s) — inf M(t,s)l. From assumption (2.15), 17 > 0. SEof teK(nl) 58 From (2.18), (2.19) and (2.21), 3 k0(n,no) such that V k > k0(1),770) 1? < P[supIM (x3 (as) — M(p,s)l < n. suplé (s)—p| > n ]+ 0 3695’ "k “k sear I1k 1 + 770/2: < P[supIM (£2 (8),s) — M(p,s)l < n. sum}; (s)—p| > n , 3697 ”k “k 8693’ ”k 1 , supl inf Mn (t,s) - inf M(t,s)l < n] + scthKMl) k t€K(nl) + P[sule ((1 (SL8) - M(p,8)l < n, supln (S) - pl > 17, sea nk nk SEofi’ nk 1‘ , supl inf Mn (t,s) - inf M(t,s)l _>_ 77] + 770/2 scofi’tEKMl) k tEK(171) (2.22) < P[supIM (i2 (8),s) — M(p,s)l < n. suplé (s) -pl > n, 369! DR 11k 3697 HR 1 , supl inf Mn (t,s) — inf M(t,s)l < 17] + 3170/4. scofteKMl) k tEK(nl) From the definition of 1), the first term on the r.h.s. of (2.22) is zero, which leads to a contradiction. Therefore (2.20) must be false and hence the result. CI Note. The proof of Theorem 2.5 does not use the existence of f nor - does it use any of the moments of 60 or Zn' Note that under the assumptions c-‘s i.i.d. and |p| < 1, {Xj} of (1.0.3) is invertible and J strictly stationary ergodic. 59 3. Weak convergence of the prams Jr? (1311(3) - p), s E d’. In this section we prove the weak convergence of Jfi [511(3) — p] as a C(m valued random element. The idea of the proof for this result is taken from H-W. The C.L.T. given by Withers (1981 and 1983) has been used to prove its finite dimensional distribution convergence. We also discuss the behavior of its asymptotic bias. Recall from (1.1) that to minimize Mn(t,s) w.r.t. t is equivalent to maximizing U121(t,s) + V121(t,s), where for (t,s) E K x or; _ -1 “ Un(t,s) — n .2 cos(s[Yj — th_1]), i=1 -1 n (3.1) V (t,s) = n E sin(s[Y. — tY. ]) n j=1 J J-l and U11 5 VII 5 0, otherwise. _ —16 2 2 LGt Inn : 2 3E (UH + VII). Then 1 n . (3.2) mn(t,s) = — I13 .Ele—l{Unsm(S[Yj-th—1]) — Vncos(s[Yj—th_1])}, (t,s) E K x of: = 0, otherwise. By the Taylor series expansion (3.3) mn(én(s),s) = mums) + % mn(t,s)I,=;(,)[bn(s) — p], where (3.4) was) -p| s line) -p|, s e or. 60 Theorem 3.1 below shows that % mn(t,s) t=p(s)’ uniformly in s, converges in probability to a negative number. Hence (3.5) 31612, lmn(pn(8),s)l = 0p(1)- Thus from (3.3) and (3.5) we see that in order to prove the weak convergence of ‘5 (pn(s) — p), it suffices to study the weak convergence of the process mn(p,s), s E of. Before stating the next theorem, note that (13,8) + (3.6) %mn(t,s) = s_2{Un(t,s) Un(t,s) + Vn(t,s) i2 V II 33% S 2 + [313 Un(t,s)] }, t e K, s e of: _J [\D + [% Vn(t,s) 503$ Un(t,s) = — 311-1 j: Yj_lsin(s[Yj — th_1]), % Vn(t,s) = sn’ljg1 Yj_1cos(s[Yj — th_1]), (3.7) $2 Un(t,s) = — 32n"1j§1 Y?_lcos(s[Yj — th_1]), g2? Vn(t,s) = _ 3211—11:l Y§_lsin(s[Yj - th_,]), for all (t,s) E K x of From here on it will be understood that sup is taken over all s E of, unless Specified otherwise. Theorem 3.1. In addition to the assumptions of Theorem 2.5(a) and all the model assumptions (1.0.1) — (1.0.3), assume 1m EZI21 < co . n 61 Then 2 2 (3.8) 32p 35 mn 0 be arbitrary, then V n > n0(m) (3.19) P(n12 x12 _1’“[{s |xj_ 1|sup|pns() — pl} A 2] > c) j=1 s Pn< lg x2. [{s llelsuplp (s) pun] >c, J —1 —-1 ,suplpn(S)-p| Sm )+m 8697 _ * _ _ g c lsxgus |X0|m1} A 21+ m1. This follows from (2.16), the Markov inequality and the stationarity of ' {Xj}’ In (3.19), taking limit as n -+ co and then m -+ 00, E63 < co and the DOT. give (3.18) converges to zero in probability. H—W proved in their Theorem 2 that the sup norm of the third term 11 (3.11) goes to zero a.s.. This completes the proof of (3.8) as well. u 66 Next, set u(s) = Ecos[sel] and v(s) = Esin[scl], s 6 IR. Also, by the random elements X11 and Y11 satisfying Xn(s) = Yn(s) + 5p(1) we h 11 — = . s a mean 31612, IXn(s) Yn(s)| op(1) Theorem 3.2. Let the assumptions of Theorem 3.1 hold. Also let (a) I |f(x-—u)-f(x)| dx < cm, u e s, for some 0 < c 6 IR, (b) Var{cos(scl)] > 0, Var{sin(scl)] > 0, Var[u(s)sin(scl) — v(s)cos(scl)] > 0, s E of and (c) sup E|Zn|2+a < 00,0 < E|c1|2+a< 00, a > 0, I] hold. Then (3.20) Ill/212nm — p + un(°)] converges weakly in C(of) to a Gaussian process with mean 0 and covariance (Exfirluse): |¢(t)ll'2(st)‘1h(tss), where 2h(t,s) = u(s—t)[u(s)u(t) + v(s)v(t)] + + u(s+t)[v(s)v(t) — u(s)u(t)] + v(s—t)[v(s)u(t) — u(s)v(t)] — — v(s+t)[u(s)v(t) + v(s)u(t)] and (3.21) pn(s) = {1% mn(t,s)|t=5(s)] [Ecos[s(cl+vl—pv0)] . - Evosin[s(cl+v1—pv0)] - Esin[s(cl+v1-pv0)]Evocos[s(£1+v1-pv0)]]. 67 Proof. From (3.1), (3.3) and (3.5) - (3.7) we get was (s )- ms 3; ms(tss)'t=3(s> n __n—'1/2j 2 lYj_1{Un(p,s)sin(s[Yj—ij_1]) — Vn(p,s)cos(s[Yj—ij_1])} + op(1) = _n-I/ZE y. [{Ecos[s(c +v -pv )]}sin[s(c-+V--PV- )1 i=1 1—1 1 1 o J J J-1 — {Esin[s(el+v1—pv0)]}cos[s(cj+vj—pvj_1)]] — II (3.22) — n“1 2 j= 1 Yj_1{sin[s(cJ c.+v j.-pv J_1)—] Esin[s(cl+v1—pv0)]} - vs mums) — Ecos[(cl+v1—pv0)l} + n1j§1 Yj _j1{cos[s(c +vj —pv J_1)]— Ecos[s(cl+v1—pv0)]} . - Jfi {v.,(ps) — Esints1} — II — {n-ljlej-l} [Esin[s(61+vl—pv0)] - ~Jfi{Un(p,s) — Ecos[s(cl+v1—pv0)]} — — Ecos[s(el+vl-pv0)]./s{vn(p,s) — Esin[s(cl+v1-pv0)]}] + 5p(1). We shall now proceed to prove that the sup norm of the second, third and fourth terms in (3.22) converge to zero in probability. To achieve this we shall prove (3.23) (5 {Un(p,s>— E cos[s( e1,+v1—pv0)1} Jfi {Vn(p,s) — E sin[s(£1+vl-pv0)]}, s E of; 68 converges weakly in C(oJO to a Gaussian process, In (3.24i) sup|n_1J H{sin[s(c j+vj -pvj_l)]— Esin[s(cl+v1—pv0)]}| = op(1) and I (3. 24ii) suplnlJ n Yj_j1{cos[s(£ +vJ-pvj_1)]— Ecos[s(61+v1—0pv )]}|= 5p1( ). In view of (3.22) — (3.24), to study the weak convergence of n1/2[pn— p + 1111)] it suffices to study the weak convergence of the first term in (3.22) when centered. Proof of (3.23). Denote {M(S) = c08[S(ej+vj-pvj_1)] — E cos[(£1+v1—pv0)] V s 6 9y: Since Yj — ij_1 and Yk - ka_1 are independent for all | j—k| 2 2 .we see a(k)= 0 Vk>2. Also, 3691’, because 7n —-10 (3.25) {10121 = 193612 n(s) + 2(n—1)n—1E§1,n(s)§2,n(s) —+ Var{cos(sco)], which is positive because of the assumption (b), 0121 as in Theorem 1.3.1. The remaining conditions of Theorem 1.3.1 are trivially satisfied. Hence from Billingsley (1968, p. 49) the finite dimensional (3.26) distributions of n __111/2 2 {jn (s) converge to that of a Gaussian J: 1 ’11 process. Also, for any 3, t e of 1/211 _ —1/2“ 2 (327) El11 1215M“) n 1315,4111 — 69 vm[€1,n(3)-€1,n(t)] + (%)COV[§1,D(S)-§l,n(t), €2’n(S)—€2,n(t)]- From the Cauchy—Schwartz inequality and the Lipschitz property of the cosine function the r.h.s. of (3.27) is dominated by Clt—sl2, where 0 < C 6 IR. Thus from Billingsley (1968, Theorem 12.3) the process 11 . (3.28) n—l/2 2 {j n(s) is tight, and its weak convergence to a Gaussian i=1 ’ limit in C(ofl—space follows from Billingsley (1968, Theorem 8.1). The weak convergence of the second process in (3.23) to a Gaussian limit in C(ofl—space follows similarly. Proof of (3.24). The l.h.s. of (3.24i) without the sup can be dominated by _1 n ..1 n . . 2n jgllvj—ll + In j21Xj_1{srn[s(cj+vj-pvj_1)] — s1n[scj]}| + (3.29) .1” +|n .2 X _1 n sin[se-]| + |n 2 X. 1|. 1:1 J ' 1 J“ j—l That the first term in (3.29) goes to zero in probability follows from the assumption (c) and 7n = 0(1). From the Lipschitz property of the sine function, the Cauchy—Schwartz inequality, the S.E.T., assumption (c) and 7n = 0(1), sup norm of the second term in (3.29) converges to zero in probability. That the sup norm of the third term in (3.29) converges to zero as. follows from H—W (Lemma 3.1). The last term in (3.29) converges as. to O by the S.E.T.. The proof of (3.24ii) is similar. 70 It remains to study the weak convergence of the first term in (3.22) when centered. To that effect let £j,n(s) = Yj_1[{E cos[s(cl+v1—pv0)]}sin[s(cj+vj—pvj_1)] — _ {E sin[s(cl+v1—pv0)]}cos[s(£j+vj-pvj_l)]] - 3%mn(t,s)|t:5(s)pn(s). We shall first prove the finite dimensional distributions convergence of —1/2 D . n 2 5. n(-) usrng Theorem 1.3.4. Take i=1 ’ 0n(x,y) = x[{Ecos[s(cl+v1-pv0)]}sin[s(y—px)] — {Esin[s(cl+v1-pv0)]}- °COS[S(y-p><)l] , 0(XsY) = X{U(S)8in[S(X-Py)l - V(S)008lS(X-Py)]}s x, y 6 IR, h:-=. . . . x, X], Y], vJ (D x, y 6 IR, in Theorem 1.3.4. Since Xj = 2 pkcj k=0 assumptions (a) and (c) and Pham and Tran (1985,Theorem 2.1) with as in the model assumptions with w(x,y) = x+y, —k a.s., using 6 = 2, A(k) = pk, gives {Xj} to be strongly a—mixing with (3.30) a(k) 5 Cplplzk/3, V k 2 2, for some Cp > 0. By assumption (b) and (c), 12 = sxg Var[u(s)sin(seo) — v(s)cos(sco)] > 0 for each s e of Thus all the conditions of Theorem 1.3.4 are satisfied. Hence the C.L.T. holds for E as defined above, for each s E of Now using the argument as in (3.26) we get the required finite dimensional 71 distributions convergence. Since for all i and j with |i-j| 2 2, cj, vj and Vj—l are independent of {(vk,Yk), k = i-ls i}, (3.31) Cov[£in(t), fjn(s)] = 0 V s, t E of Using (3.31), the same argument as in (3.27) and (3.28), we get 11 11—1/2 2 {j n(-) converges weakly in C(efl—space to a Gaussian process i=1 ’ with mean 0 and covariance Exgh(t,s). Thus from (3.3) — (3.5), (3.8), Billingsley (1968, Theorem 4.1) and (3.22), we get (3.20). 0 Remark 3.1. From (3.8), the assumption Jfi 7n = 0(1) and simple computations using (1.0.1), we can see that Jfi ”n in Theorem 3.2 can be replaced by (3.32) Vn(s) = — s-l|¢61(s)|_2[EXg]_1[Ecos[s(cl+v1-pv0)]~ ~Evosin[s(cl+v1—pv0] — E sin[s(cl+v1—pv0)]Ev0cos[s(£1+vl—pv0)]]. Note that Vn(S) represents the asymptotic bias of n1/2(pn(s) — p). Consider the following assumptions: o1og=mo (b) J13 7n = 0(1) and Zn -1 0 in probability. (c) Jfi 7n -1 7 and Zn -1 Z in probability. 72 Using (1.0.1) and the continuity of the sine and cosine functions, one concludes that under (a) or (b), sup an(3)| -—1 0 and hence Jfi ”n in see’ Theorem 3.2 can be replaced by 0. Using the Lipschitz property of the sine and the cosine functions, the condition (c) implies that sup lun(s) - p(s)| -1 0, where 86c»! _ -l -2 2—1 . (3.32) u(S) - -s melon [EXOI {7E} zsmlscl—pzn dL(z)}[u(s) + + 27 EJ cos[s(61+2—1(1—p)z)]cos[s2_l(1+p)z] dL(z)} — - {7E} zcos[s(cl—pz)] dL(z)} [v(s) + 27EJ sin[s(cl+2_1(1—p)z)- ~ cos[s2-1(1+p)z] dL(z)}]. 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