Alternative fuels for transportation have become the focus of intense policy debate and legislative action due to volatile oil prices, an unstable political environment in many major oil producing regions, increasing global demand, dwindling reserves of low-cost oil, and concerns over global warming. A major potential source of alternative fuels is biofuels produced from cellulosic biomass, which have a number of potential benefits. Recognizing these potential advantages, the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 has mandated 21 billion gallons of cellulosic/advanced biofuels per year by 2022. The United States needs 220-300 million tons of cellulosic biomass per year from the major sources such as agricultural residues, forestry and mill residues, herbaceous resources, and waste materials (supported by Biomass Crop Assistance Program) to meet these biofuel targets. My research addresses three key major questions concerning cellulosic biomass supply. The first paper analyzes cellulosic biomass availability in the United States and Canada. The estimated supply curves show that, at a price of $100 per ton, about 568 million metric tons of biomass is available in the United States, while 123 million metric tons is available in Canada. In fact, the 300 million tons of biomass required to meet EISA mandates can be supplied at a price of $50 per metric ton or lower. The second paper evaluates the farmers' perspective in growing new energy crops, such as switchgrass and miscanthus, in prime cropland, in pasture areas, or on marginal lands. My analysis evaluates how the farmers' returns from energy crops compare with those from other field crops and other agricultural land uses. The results suggest that perennial energy crops yielding at least 10 tons per acre annually will be competitive with a traditional corn-soybean rotation if crude oil prices are high(ranging from $88-$178 per barrel over 2010-2019). If crude oil prices are low, then energy crops will not be competitive with existing crops, and additional subsidy support would be required. Among the states in the eastern half of US, the states of Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Virginia are found to be economically more suitable to cultivate perennial energy crops. The third paper estimates the optimal feedstock composition of annual and perennial feedstocks from a biorefinery's perspective. The objective function of the optimization model is to minimize the cumulative costs covering harvesting, transport, storage, and GHG costs, of biomass procurement over a biorefinery's productive period of 20 years subject to various constraints on land availability, feedstock availability, processing capacity, contracting needs and storage. The results suggest that the economic tradeoff is between higher production costs for dedicated energy crops and higher collection and transport costs for agricultural residues; the delivered costs of biomass drives the results. These tradeoffs are reflected in optimal spatial planting pattern as preferred by the biorefinery: energy crops are grown in fields closer to the biorefinery and agricultural residues can be sourced from fields farther away from the biorefinery. The optimization model also provides useful insights into the price premiums paid for annual and perennial feedstocks. For the parameters used in the case study, the energy crop price premium ranges from $2 to $8 per ton for fields located within a 10 mile radius. For agricultural residues, the price premiums range from $5 to $16 per ton within a 10-20 mile radius.
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