MICHIGAN STATE [H lull/l" ’I/H ill/Ill/lnll ll This is to certify that the dissertation entitled Comparative Analysis of Social Change In the Muslim Nations presented by Hasan A. Qader Yahya has been accepted towards fulfillment of the requirements for Ph . D. degree in Sociology [Major professor 17% / Date /h “—7 /61 / f7 7/ MS U is an Affirmative Action/Equal Opportunity Institution 0-12771 LIBRARY Michigan State University PLACE IN RETURN BOX to remove this checkout from your record. TO AVOID FINES return on or before date due. DATE DUE DATE DUE DATE DUE ii —— l 4 V7 MSU In An Affirmative Action/Equal Opportunity Institution cmmd COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF SOCIAL CHANGE IN THE MUSLIM NATIONS By Hasan A. Qader Yahya A DISSERTATION Submitted to Michigan State University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY Department of Sociology College of Social Sciences 1991 a) / ) {276' 627. ' ABSTRACT COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF SOCIAL CHANGE IN THE MUSLIM NATIONS By Hasan A. Qader Yahya The main purpose of this research was to study aspects of social change in education, housing, health, labor force composition, and political participation 'hi Muslhn nations 'hi two periods: 1975 and 1985. Further, the researcher' compared the extent of change among Muslim countries in these aspects, and tested hypotheses concerning relationships between infant mortality (as the endogenous variable) and adult literacy, women’s participation in the labor force, access to piped water, population density, and GNP per capita (as exogenous variables). Thirty-six nations constituted the study sample. Using secondary data, t-test, multiple regression, analysis of variance, path analysis, and correlations were used as statistical techniques in analyzing the data. Results of the t-test showed that a significant change had occurred between 1985 and 1975 in the education, health, housing, labor force composition, and political participation areas, whereas no significant difference *was observed in female enrollment in schools and citizen participation indicators. Hasan A. Qader Yahya Results of the analysis of variance showed that both significant and nonsignificant differences were found in geographic location, ethnic. background, political type, and oil production. Significant differences were found between Asian and African nations in women’s participation in the labor force and adult literacy. Between Arab and non-Arab Muslim nations, the null hypotheses concerning infant mortality, women’s participation in the labor force, and GNP per capita were rejected. The rufll hypotheses concerning republican and nonrepublican nations in infant mortality, access to piped water, and GNP per capita. were rejected. The null hypothesis concerning oil and nonoil-producing nations was rejected only on GNP per capita. Path-analysis results showed that 9 out of 11 hypotheses were in congruity with expectations. However, hypotheses concerning the relationships between woman’s participation in the labor force, and between adult literacy and population density, were opposite to expectations, haVing a negative rather than positive sign. The findings suggest that change had occurred in certain areas but not others in these countries’ transition from the traditional to the modern. The implications of social change theory are a highly desirable area for further research, especially using historical comparative analysis and path-analysis techniques. Copyright by HASAN A. QADER YAHYA 1991 To Zakia, for her unlimited support. ‘ ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Any research undertaking is a joint venture. The cooperation, supervision, encouragement, and assistance of many people contribute to the finished product. I wish first to thank Professor Jay Artis, my formal advisor, who always provided healthy criticism and productive directions. I gratefully acknowledge the role of the committee members, Professors H. Faunce, and L. Romano, who helped me gain a wider view and fresh perspective of the data. I am grateful to Professor Chris Vanderpool (the Department Chair), who served as the committee chair for some time and a member in the last stages of the dissertation. I also gratefully acknowledge the role of my family, wife and children for their share of time, patience, and attention. vi TABLE OF CONTENTS Page LIST OF TABLES ....................... x LIST OF FIGURES ................. ' ...... xiii LIST OF MAPS ........................ xiv Chapter I. INTRODUCTION TO THE STUDY .............. 1 Introduction ................... 1 Purpose of the Study ............... 1 Statement of the Problem ............. 2 Objectives of the Study .............. 3 Importance and Contribution of the Study ..... 4 Comparative Conceptual Framework ......... 4 Overview ..................... 5 II. REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE .............. 7 Definition of Social Change ............ 7 Social Change in Classical Theory ......... 8 Growth, Development, and Change .......... 10 Relevance of the Literature to the Study ..... ll Islamic Culture and Change ............ 11 III. CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK ................ 18 Aspects and Indicators of Social Change ...... 18 Health ..................... 19 Housing ..................... 20 Education .................... 21 Labor Force Composition ............. 22 Political Participation ............. 22 A Path Model of Infant Mortality ......... 23 The Path-Model Hypotheses ............ 23 Components of the Model ............. 27 Other Variables .................. 31 Geographic Location ............... 31 Ethnic Background ................ 33 Political Type ................. 33 vii Oil and Nonoil Production ............ The Issue of Fundamentalism and Social Change . Time Period of Comparison ............. The Study Hypotheses ............... Hypotheses of Social Change in the Two Time Periods .................... The Path-Model Hypotheses ............ Discrete-Variables Hypotheses .......... Religiosity and Modernization Assumptions ..... THE MUSLIM WORLD .................. Definition of the Muslim World .......... Characteristics of the Muslim World ........ Population Dynamics ............... Geographic Location ............... Ethnicity and Culture .............. Political Type ................. Wealth and Oil Production ............ The Organization of the Islamic Conference . . The Purpose of the OIC ............. The Roots of the OIC .............. Organizational Structure and Membership of the OIC .................... Activities of the OIC .............. Summary ...................... DESIGN AND METHODOLOGY ............... The Data Set ................... The Historical-Comparative Analysis Model ..... Data Collection .................. Instrumentation and Measurement .......... Standardizing Values of Certain Indicators . ; Measurement of Religiosity ........... Analysis of Data ................. Summary ...................... ANALYSIS OF DATA .................. Data Regarding Social Indicators and Aspects of Change .................... Social Indicators of Change ........... Social Aspects of Change ............. The Path Analysis ................. Interpretation of the Path Analysis ....... Results of Social Change Between 1985 and 1975 . . Results of the Analysis of Variance ........ Geographic Location ............... Ethnic Background ................ viii Page 85 85 89 91 TOT lO4 105 106 107 Political Type ................. l07 Oil-Producing Nations .............. llZ Religiosity and Modernization Assumptions ..... llZ Summary ...................... ll7 VII. SUMMARY, CONCLUSIONS, AND RECOMMENDATIONS ...... ll8 Summary ...................... 118 Social Change in 1985 Compared With 1975 . . . . ll8 Determinants of Infant Mortality ........ ll9 Analysis of Variance .............. ll9 Conclusions .................... lZl Recommendations for Policy and Further Research . . 123 Policy Recommendations ............. l24 Research Recommendations ............ lZS APPENDICES A. MUSLIM NATIONS INCLUDED IN THE STUDY, OIL AND NON- OIL-PRODUCING MUSLIM NATIONS, AND RELIGIOSITY SURVEY ...................... 127 B. TRANSFORMED SCORES AND CHANGE RATES OF THE SOCIAL ASPECTS OF CHANGE ................. 131 C. RANKING OF MUSLIM NATIONS IN THE HEALTH, HOUSING, ' EDUCATION, LABOR FORCE COMPOSITION, AND CITIZEN PARTICIPATION DOMAINS, 1975 AND 1985 ....... 135 BIBLIOGRAPHY ........................ 141 ix LIST OF TABLES Table 4.1 Population, Area, and Density of Selected Muslim Countries ................... 4.2 Large Muslim Minority Groups in Selected Nations With Populations Over One Million ...... 4.3 Distribution of Muslims Throughout the World, 1982 . . 4.4 Socioeconomic Indicators for Selected Muslim Countries ................... 4.5 Islamic Development Bank Project Financing by Sector, 1983-1984 & 1985-1986 ........... 6.1 Means and Standard Deviations of the Nine Core Indicators of Social Change . .* ......... 6.2 Correlation Matrix of the Core Indicators, 1975 6.3 Correlation Matrix of the Core Indicators, 1985 6.4 Measures of Central Tendency and Dispersion on the Standardized Indexes of Social Change by Year and Subindex ...................... 6.5 Summary Measures of Independent and Dependent Variables Used in the Multiple Regression Analysis . . 6.6 Expected and Actual Relationship Signs in the Path-Model Variables .............. 6.7 Zero-Order Correlations Among the Variables Used in the Model ..................... 6.8 Summary of Multiple Regression of Independent Variable(s) on Dependent Variable (s) ........ 6.9 Direct (Beta Coefficients), Correlations, and Partial Correlations of the Path Model Variables . . . 6.10 Estimated Direct, Indirect, and Total Effects of the Independent Variables on Infant Mortality ...... Page 52 53 54 62 74 86 87 88 90 93 94 97 98 99 W>>> .11 .12 .13 .14 .15 .16 .17 NN T-test Values, Degrees of Freedom, and 2-Tailed Probability for the Change Indicators ........ Analysis of Variance of Geographic Location and Infant Mortality, Access to Piped Water, Women in the Labor Force, Population Density, and GNP Per Capita . . . . Analysis of Variance of Ethnic Background and Infant Mortality, Access to Piped Water, Women in the Labor Force, Population Density, and GNP Per Capita . . . . Analysis of Variance of Political Type and Infant Mortality, Access to Piped Water, Women in the Labor Force, Population Density, and GNP Per Capita . . . . Analysis of Variance of Oil-Producing Nations and Infant Mortality, Access to Piped Water, Women in the Labor Force, Population Density, and GNP Per Capita ................... Selected Actual Social Indicators Scores Compared with Three Levels of Religiosity ...... Ranking of Social Aspects Compared with Religiosity in the Muslim Nations ................ Muslim Nations Included in the Study ........ The Muslim Nations and Their Dates of Independence Oil and Nonoil-Producing Muslim Nations ....... Transformed Scores and Change Rate of the Social Aspects of Change .................. Ranking of Muslim Nations on the Social Aspects of Change, 1975 and 1985 ................ Ranking of Muslim Nations in the Health Domain, 1975 and 1985 .................... Ranking of Muslim Nations in the Housing and Nutrition Domain, 1975 and 1985 ........... Ranking of Muslim Nations in the Education Domain, 1975 and 1985 .................... xi Page 105 108 109 110 111 113 116 127 128 129 131 135 136 137 138 C.5 C.6 Page Ranking of Muslim Nations in the Employment Domain, 1975 and 1985 ................ 139 Ranking of Muslim Nations in the Citizen- Participation Domain, 1975 and 1985 ......... l40 xii LIST OF FIGURES Figure Page 3.1 Social Aspects and Indicators ............ 19 3.2 Proposed Causal Model of Infant Mortality ...... 26 4.1 Organizational Chart: Subsidiary and Functional Organs of the OIC .................. 70 5.1 The Historical-Comparative Analysis Model ...... 77 6.1 Expected Signs of the Causal Model of Infant Mortality . ................ 95 6.2 Causal Model of Infant Mortality .......... 100 xiii LIST OF MAPS Map Page 1. Muslim Countries Worldwide .............. 48 2. Muslim Countries in Asia .............. 49 3. Muslim Countries in Africa .............. 50 xiv CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION TO THE STUDY Wen The measurement of political, economic, and social change is a perpetual need in the social sciences. Several measurement studies concerning socioeconomic and political development have been conducted by social scientists in areas of educational achievement, political and economic development, overall modernity, levels of living, and socio-cultural change (Adelman & Morris, 1969; Allen & Bent, 1965; Inkeles & Smith, 1973; MacGranahan, 1972; McClelland, 1962; Morris, 1979, 1986; United Nations, 1954). Pur s of th t The writer’s main purpose in this research was to study aspects of social change in education, housing, health, labor force composition, and political participation in Muslim nations in two time periods, 1975 and 1985, and to compare the extent of change in the above-mentioned areas within these countries. The secondary purpose was to test expected relationships between infant mortality and five predictor variables in the change process. The variables represent various aspects of social life believed by a number of researchers to be interrelated (Adelman & Morris, 1969; Davis, 1959; Goldscheider, 1971; Havighurst & Neugarten, 1968; Lerner, 1958; Levy, 1962; Shin, 1977). These variables are gross national product (GNP) per capita and participation of women in the labor force (economic), population density' (demographic), percentage of households with access to piped water (housing), and adult literacy (education). em n r l Economists commonly have used GNP per capita as the sole measure of economic growth. Sociologists, however, have concerned themselves with the distribution of social services including GNP per capita. Although it is a widely known and accepted notion that social change is a multidimensional concept, few sound theoretical studies have been conducted to measure social change in the areas of quality of life and well-being (Boulding, 1967; Bunge, 1973; Drewnowski, 1971; Horowitz, 1969; Land, 1971; Mukhotis, 1986; Olson, 1968). Unfortunately, the problem (of selecting indicators has not been considered for 'the universal level of analysis because of difficulties concerning the availability, comparability, and limitations of the selected indicators. In addition, problems arise in the definition of indicators and validation of measurement instruments. Many researchers believe that social change can be measured by indicators of basic needs, quality of life, social accounts, or social concerns (Andrews, 1986; Campbell, 1973; Moore, 1973; Streeten, 1973). Others have used an array of indicators covering broad sociocultural areas including population, politics, communication, education, health, social welfare, crime, and family (Allen & Bent, 1965). Such measurements were introduced primarily to understand social change in order to increase the policy-making power of governmental agencies in solving social problems and raising the level of all segments of the population. The search for a supplement or substitute for GNP has continued for the past 30 years. Several other measurements and theoretical frameworks have been suggested and new indicators have been introduced to enhance the accuracy of measures of social change. But problems remain concerning conceptualization and the validity and reliability of the measurements. Being aware of these difficulties, the present writer attempted to study change in certain social aspects in a group of nations. Similar research on these aspects has not been undertaken with all Muslim nations included in one study. Objectives of the Study The writer had the following objectives: (a) to study social change in Muslim countries in five areas: health, education, housing, labor force composition, and political participation from 1975 to 1985; (b) to describe and compare similarities and differences among the Muslim nations in the selected aspects of change; and (c) to test hypotheses concerning relationships between infant mortality (as the endogenous variable) and literacy, participation of women in the labor force, access to piped water, GNP per capita, and population density (as the exogenous variables). m r a d i i For a long time, most policy makers (politicians, economists, and sociologists) preferred to use GNP per capita as the sole indicator of socioeconomic development. However, social scientists .increasingly view GNP as inaccurate for measuring social change or improvement in levels of living (Campbell, 1973), even though it is considered the most accurate indicator of economic growth and has sometimes correlated strongly with development indicators as well (Adelman & Morris, 1974; Bunge, 1973; United Nations, 1954). The present study is important because of the need to investigate social change among nations in transition from a traditional to a modern social type. The study is timely and should help fill the gap in comparative research in this area. The findings concern changes in various social areas that should be helpful to policy makers in the sample nations in the fields of health, housing, education, labor force, and citizen participation, as well as other demographic areas. Comparative Conceptual Framewerk Change is a multidimensional concept that can be applied to all aspects of social and cultural life including growth and structure, earning methods and distribution, political systems, and values and culture. In the simplest terms, change is merely a new situation that differs from the previous one. The task for sociologists is to arrive at general patterns of change itself. To what extent does change occur? How does it occur? What factors are related to such occurrences? This writer attempted to answer the first and third questions using a historical-comparative design. The extent of change in the five selected social areas was studied, and certain relationships were tested. In the present study, assuming that the Muslim countries share many economic, cultural, and political characteristics, those nations were considered to constitute the "optimal sample" to serve the purpose of the research. Further, the sample set is optimal to test certain modernization assumptions in terms of fundamentalism and religiosity, where nations vary in their religiosity and GNP per capita when oil production is taken into consideration. Overview The remainder of the dissertation is organized as follows: Chapter II is a review of the literature on social change. The relevance of change theories to the study and to Islamic culture and change is discussed. Chapter III, the conceptual framework, covers the aspects and indicators of social change. In Chapter IV, the Muslim world is described in terms of economic and socio- demographic variables. In Chapter V, the design and methodology of the study are explained. Chapter VI contains the results of the data analyses, and Chapter VII contains a summary of the study, conclusions based on the research findings, and recommendations for further research. CHAPTER II REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE To understand socio-cultural change in general and change in the proposed social aspects, it is important to discuss briefly the concept of "social change" by reviewing classical and contemporary theories of change and to explain the context of Islam as a religion and Muslim modern culture in light of these theories. Definition of Sociel Cheege Social change has assumed a significance today that is unparalleled in the history of mankind. It is more rapid and thoroughgoing than ever before (Black, 1966). The phenomenal growth of knowledge in the past 150 years has been largely responsible for increasing gains in scientific and technological control, which are, in turn, associated with certain forms of social structure, values, and attitudes. Social change may be defined as "the transformation of culture and social institutions over time that is reflected in the life patterns of individuals" (Macionis, 1989, p. 612). It is simply the process of becoming different. When changes grow in an order connected to earlier phases of change, the process is called evolution. The term "development," which involves change ‘hi the sense of gradually evolving possibilities, is also frequently applied to social phenomena. It is sometimes used to mean movement or"transition from "traditional, agricultural" social types into "rational, modern, industrial” social types. Such transitions can be observed in educational institutions, health, housing, political participation, and size and skill of the labor force. Before delving into a discussion of these areas, theories concerning social change are examined in both classical and modern social thought. Soeial Chenqe in Classical Theory Social scientists in the last two centuries have been puzzled by questions concerning causes and directions of change in general and in specific aspects of economic, political, and social change. Long before pioneers of social thought in Europe, and before the term "sociology” took its familiar name from Comte, Ibn Khaldun (1332-1406) in his Mugagdimah explored the manifold factors involved in social change. His theory included two contrasting forms of social organization--the nomadic (bedouin) and sedentary. Lauer (1973) pointed out that Ibn Khaldun "as a pioneer of sociological thought . . . not only made bold new advances in trying to ascertain causal factors in change; he also recognized that those factors would be numerous and diverse" (p. 25). Ibn Khaldun contrasted the life of empires (nations) like an individual, and history as an ongoing cycle of growth and decay, passing five stages. Comte (1798-1857) thought he had discovered in social change a relationship between intellectual and social development. He stated this in his well-known theory that human thought passed through three historical stages: the theological, the metaphysical, and the positive. Durkheim (1855-1917) saw in social change a transformation from a primitive, mechanical, segmentary society to an organic one marked by the division of labor. Tonnies (1855-1936) believed that social change showed a development from a Gemeinschaft (community), a spontaneous natural unity, to Geeelleehaft (society) a type of unity characterized by complex associations formed for various interests and purposes. Among Marx’s (1818-1883) areas of concern were the causes of social change. He postulated that change lies in technological development and the conflict between classes for its control. Pareto (1948-1923) saw social change as rising from an alteration in the types of elite who control society. Spencer (1820-1903) compared society and its institutions with the human organism as a system, which he described in terms of the sustaining, distributing, and regulating systems. Finally, Spengler, Toynbee, and Sorokin followed Ibn Khaldun’s cyclical theory, in their studies of social change. For example, Spengler saw social change as the natural process of birth, growth, maturity, and decay. Toynbee, in his monumental historical survey, explained social change in terms of the rise and fall of civilizations. And Sorokin, (1889-1968) formulated a cyclical 10 theory of social change called "cultural super-systems," in which each system succeeds the other. row ev m n C n Although the debate regarding modernization concepts such as growth, development, and change has not ended; the present writer does support the argument that differences may exist in the conceptualization of growth and development. Several writers have given this issue more attention. For example, Flammang (1979), in his article "Economic Growth and Economic Development: Counterparts or Competitors?" aimed at dispelling some of the Cbnfusion surrounding the terms "growth" and "development." Flammang argued that the two terms are different but related processes that are both counterparts and competitors, depending (Hi the situation. He distinguished between the two as follows: Economic growth is a process of simple increase, implying more of the same, while economic development is a process of structural change, implying something different if not something more” (p. 50). Whereas the term "growth" means an "increase" and the term "development” means "different--if not something more," both terms indicate a positive direction of change where change has both positive and negative directions. The purpose of the present study was to study change, not to assess growth or development alone, which only measures one direction of change. It is argued, for this reason, that the concept of "change" is broader than the two terms. Change, therefore, was selected in the present study, measured 11 quantitatively, and compared in terms of certain areas, to avoid arguing over terminology. lTaking into consideration the differ- ences among the nations studied, it was expected that the findings would show both positive and negative directions of social aspects of change. WW Literature on social change has been developed from a broad discussion of civilizations (Ibn Khaldun, Spengler, Sorokin, and Toynbee) to specific discussion of small organizations and institutions (the subsystems in Parsons’ theory, for example). While the relevance of these theories to social change is obvious, the factor of time and the specific selected areas prevent their application. In the remaining pages of this chapter, the writer discusses how Islamic culture perceives change and modernization. lelemic Culture and Change The key problem of modernization in Muslim nations is the need to mesh Islam, which is a faith, a way of life, and a community, with the thought processes and techniques of the modern world as developed by the West (Dean, 1957, p. 48). These nations have the natural and passionate desire to achieve or maintain national goals. The fear has been that the adoption of Western techniques will destroy the ancient faith by which people have lived for centuries. To understand this fear, we must see how Islam perceives change in general and modernization in particular. 12 The Islamic society is based on a positive recognition of the sacred; religion is incontrovertibly of highest value in almost all Muslim populations. This often creates difficulties in adjusting to the secular ends-means criteria. From sociological point of view, the Muslim social organization has always placed great emphasis on the particularism which acts as a barrier in modernization. Further, Islam, in common with other religions, inherently rejects change. The word for "innovation" in the religious sense is Bid’ah, considered as heresy and something inherently bad. It is the opposite of Sunnah, the path of the Prophet and the way of life in the Islamic community. Innovation in this case may contradict the Qur’an and Sunnah, and therefore is unacceptable. Only in the case where innovation does not contradict Sunnah is it acceptable. But many innovators and policy makers in the Muslim World have attempted to relegate religion to a place apart, in order to enhance modernization. Religion is no longer the source of social energy or the model of the future among many Muslim leaders. These characteristics, in fact, constitute the hallmark of secularism and modernization. These broad changes are far too vast to comprehend in one research project; thus, only the extent of change in the five selected areas is covered here. In order for social systems to survive, economic, social, and political institutions must be created and managed to direct the nations’ resources and people’s skills toward national goals in the nations’ building process. Such 13 goals may not be realized in an ill-educated and ill-fed population with a high mortality rate, low GNP per capita, high population growth and density, and low participation in the nation’s social and political institutions. Change in these areas is necessary for the process of social transition postulated by modernization and secularization theories. Becker (1932), building on the writings of Tonnies, Durkheim, and Redfield, analyzed secularization by contrasting the sacred and the secular in their extreme manifestations. He used essentially rural situations as being typical examples of sacred societies and the urban as usually being more secular. He characterized rural society as one in which primary social attitudes are the main force of social control, where economic self-sufficiency is common, and isolation and primary-group relations are dominant. For urban people, in contrast, primary controls tend to be less effective and social relationships tend to be treated as a means to an end. Individualization, rationality, and critical abilities are highly valued. Theoretically, secularization, as a process, describes what happens to the religious structure of people when their culture increases in complexity and specialization (Wash, 1937). From this point of view, Christianity has given a more comprehensive teaching on the ethics of work, profession, and occupation than any other religion. This tendency was furthered as a result of the teachings of Calvin and other Protestant thinkers who emphasized work and success as signs of salvation, a doctrine that easily led to 14 secularization. This has been the object of study of Max Weber and others (Wash, 1937). Therefore, in the interrelationship between religious thought and modern culture, Protestant values embrace modern culture. Weber (1940) attributed the rise of Western capitalism largely to Protestantism. He wrote: "It is the fate of our time, charac- terized as it is by rationalism and intellectualization, and above all by tendencies to secularize the world, that precisely the most ultimate and sublime values- have been withdrawn from the common life" (p. 483). The contemporary Muslim world has many secular characteristics in its social, political, and economic life. General patterns of change that indicate such phenomena are, for example, expanding urban areas and factory labor; increases in communication, educa- tion, and literacy; and the advent of national states backed by rationalist feeling that spreads from the educated elite to the masses. Until recently those masses had remained largely outside the political society. Furtherm there is a growing equality of women and the loosening of parental authority, as well as an application of Western, secular legal codes and an increasing use of science and technology in agriculture, industry, and medical care (Berger, 1964). Such contemporary social structures do not, however, seem to include the entire Muslim nations. Two competing attitudes permeate these structures: opposition to change for whatever 15 reason, and a desire to stimulate revival through change. Such attitudes are reflected in two sharply opposing divisions: "secularism" and "fundamentalism," or "modernism" and "traditional- ism," which may be more applicable to the Muslim culture, both of which exist. in almost all societies and interpret change differ- ently. The modernists, on one side, have simply ignored religion and have gone ahead with their plans to modernize their nations without concern for religious tradition except to use Islamic loyalty as part of their nationalist appeal. In contrast, "traditionalists" have continued to insist upon the maintenance of Islamic tradition. Traditionalism has in its favor the weight of doctrinal purity and the conservatism of the mass of religious Muslims. Further, "social change" is perceived among traditionalists to mean movement toward the Western pattern of "modernization," where the charac- ter and motives of the Prophet were vilified, and the beliefs of Muslims were ridiculed. Traditionalism, in fact, refuses to see any need for change or any good in it because it is perceived as a Western phenomenon (Berger, 1964). Despite the reluctance of the traditionalists, change in the basic institutions of the Muslim countries is observable if we consider change as described by sociologists. MacIver (1937), for example, described "the broad pattern of social change" as an increasing specialization of institutions and associations, a decline in ritual, an advance of utilitarian and secular approaches to nature, a separation of cultural life from biophysical 16 limitations through science and technology, and an increase in the ”scale of community," or human interaction and interdependence (pp. 479-84). These changes can be observed in many Muslim countries, especially those that have large urban areas, high population density, and, to a lesser extent, high GNP per capita. In the economic sphere, many of these countries are faced with problems of production, manufacturing, and distribution, especially when large illiterate populations constitute the majority of the nation’s citizens. Problems are also created when there is an influx of peasants into the cities, a lack of communication and modern management, an inequality of women in the society, and a persistence of traditional resistance to change. All these problems were open for modernization models characterized by transitions of the nations’ institutions and structures from their traditional situation into the Western secular legal model, including a complex division of labor, a relatively open social structure in which cast barriers are absent and class barriers not insurmountable, in which social roles and gains from economic activity are largely distrib- uted on the basis of achievement, and in which, therefore, innova- tion, the search for and exploitation of profitable market situations, and self-interest without regard to the welfare of others are fully sanctioned. From the comparative analysis of the above theories, it appears that no theory of social change has yet been accepted as satisfac- torily and accurately applicable for all situations. Each theory 17 emphasizes some important factors of change, either in causes, in directions, or in rates. The existence of these factors also empha- sizes that social change has a multiplicity of causes and follows various directions. This conclusion may suggest further research which constitutes a dominant interest for many contemporary sociolo- gists. This research was limited to the study of change in educa- tion, health, housing conditions, labor force composition, and political participation. The researcher studied what has happened in those social aspects that seemed to have interdependent relation- ships in the modernization process in Muslim countries in 1985 compared with 1975. These aspects are discussed in the following chapter. CHAPTER III CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK The main purpose of the present research was to study aspects of social change among Muslim nations in the education, health, housing, labor force composition, and political participation areas between two time periods, 1975 and 1985, with emphasis on the expected relationship between infant mortality and five predictor variables. This section covers the selected aspects of social change and the variables included in the causal model. Finally, the study hypotheses are stated. Aspects and Indieetpre of Social Change Since it is far from the purpose and capacity of this study to comprehend all aspects of social change, only five areas were selected: health, housing, education, labor force composition, and political participation. Each of these domains was broken down into several indicators commonly found in the literature and used in both national and international development studies and which were therefore comparable cross- culturally (Adelman & Morris, 1967; Allen & Bentz, 1965; Cutright, 1973; Magranahan 1972; Morris, 1979; Olsen, 1967; Streeten & Burki, 1978; United Nations, 1953; Wilkins, Peterson, & Schltz, 1986). 18 19 Figure 3.1 .shows these social aspects and their suggested indicators. The following section explains the domains and indicators used in the study. Social Aspects Indicators Health 1. Infant mortality ‘ 2. Death rate Housing 3. Piped water 4. Electricity Education 5. Literacy 6. Female enrollment in - primary - secondary - college Labor Force 7. Women in labor force Composition 8. Labor force in manufactures Politics 9. Citizen participation Figure 3.1.--Social aspects and indicators. Health While health indicators are many, infant mortality (the number of infants who die before completing their first year per 1,000 live births in a given year) and death rate (the number of deaths reported in a calendar year per 1,000 persons of the mid-year population) were selected. In addition to their association with low levels of education, high death rates may indicate that hospitals, health departments, doctors, nurses, and medical staff are not working effectively. When nations develop in these areas, infant mortality and death rates will be reduced as a 20 result. However, such indicators as the number of doctors, nurses, hospital beds, or calorie consumption are not equally distributed among the population. The selected indicators, even though they do not take into account differences between rural and urban areas or rich and poor segments of the nation, are assumed to be accurate measures of change in the health area, in the absence of more accurate specification by regions or classes. 891151.119 In the housing domain, access to piped water (the percentage of occupied dwellings with safe water piped inside or within 100 meters) and access to electricity (the percentage of occupied dwellings with access to electricity) were selected as accurate measures of housing in the process of change. It was assumed that the higher the percentage of people having access to piped water and electricity, the less likely people are to contact diseases usually caused by contaminated water from wells, channels, and rivers. Availability of piped water may also indicate that government agencies are effective in fulfilling their responsibility in this area. Access to electricity may describe the change in the proportion of the ”better off" population. Further, it was selected here for its use in many research studies as a sign of modernization, urbanization, and industrialization (Cutright, 1967; Olsen, 1967). 21 mm In the education domain, literacy (percentage of adult average of male and female literacy) is a well-established indicator of social change and has interdependent relationships with modernization variables (Lerner, 1958; Rogers, 1968). Female enrollment (percentage of female enrollment of the total enrollment at the primary, secondary, and college levels) was included as one composite indicator. Female education has recently been recognized in many Muslin: countries. Change in the proportion of female enrollment in school is likely to increase if we assume that modernization processes are taking place. The notion that education increases women’s participation in the work force depends on the belief that education influences females’ ability and aspiration to enter the labor market and changes their attitudes toward females’ traditional role in society (Ram, 1982; Standing, 1981). Since the percentage of GNP assigned to education does not distinguish between the material and human factors in education, it was not included. These indicators were selected for their comparability cross- nationally' and over' time. Including literacy in the education domain is appropriate because these nations strive to educate both their young and mature citizens. Many social scientists, such as Weber (1946), have emphasized the important role literacy plays in the modernization process: Not only must mass literacy, which makes modern communications system possible, be developed, but also must the rational- secular component in attitudes which are essential for individual participation in the modernization process. (p. 298) 22 r F r Com i ion For this domain, two indicators were selected: women in the labor force (the percentage of women in the labor force) and men in the industrial sector (the percentage of men in the industrial nonagricultural sector of the total labor force). The importance of including the percentage of women in the labor force springs from the nature of the extremely male-dominated culture of the nations in this study. Whereas the percentage of males in the labor force of the industrial sector was selected and expected to change significantly in the period studied, it was assumed that using women’s participation in the labor force as an indicator of social change would be more accurate than men’s participation for the reasons discussed above. The interrelationships between these indicators and others (literacy, health, and poverty) were described by Viner (1967) as the requirements of modern productive labor. He said: The first requirements for high labor productivity under modern conditions are that the masses of the population shall be literate, healthy, and sufficiently well fed to be strong and energetic. . . . Whenever this has not been accomplished and is not being strongly promoted to the utmost limits . . . they are certain to explain pervasive poverty and slow economic growth. (9- 82) ' ' al P r i ' i n Citizen political participation or the Democratization Index is based on two empirical variables: first, the share of the smaller parties and independents of the votes cast in parliamentary and/or presidential elections; and second, the degree (Hi electoral 23 participation (Vanhanen, 1979). Generally speaking, political participation indicates a greater amount of democracy and this tends to influence the decision-making process toward improving areas vital for a greater number of people rather than toward those that benefit just the elites or the more powerful classes with their particular interests. When such participation is lacking, governments become corrupt, badly organized, and inefficient. Citizen participation, therefore, was included as an indicator to represent the political participation domain. In spite of increasing educational and economic growth, it was expected that change in the percentage of political participation has occurred to a lesser extent than it has in other aspects (Hoselitz, 1964; Lerner, 1958). Each of the above-mentioned domains can be considered an area of social change. Their scores were computed, compared, and reported in this study. Expected relationships of some indicators with other variables were emphasized and tested by constructing the path model analysis explained in the following section. A Path Mpdel of Intent Mortelity A reduction in infant mortality is one of many consequences of modernization, one in which, moreover, institutions as subsystems may be established to contribute to such reduction. In fact, modernization is "unthinkable without major alteration in the level and pattern of death" (Goldscheider, 1971, p. 125). Infant 24 mortality has often been regarded as a sensitive indicator of socioeconomic differences at both the macro and micro levels. Previous researchers have demonstrated that the proportion of children dying during the first year of life is closely associated with the national level of socioeconomic development (Shin, 1975). Socioeconomic development is taken to be represented by declining infant and maternal mortality, just as it represents an increase in literacy, education, electrification, industrialization, women’s participation in the labor force, urbanization, and GNP per capita (Houser, 1979). Demographic variables also have been found to have a significant influence on infant mortality (Goldscheider, 1971). Although determinants of infant mortality cover a wide range of interrelated social, economic, cultural, and political variables, the present path model was limited to a specific number of these determinants, i.e., GNP per capita, population density, adult literacy, women’s participation in the labor force, and access to piped water. The importance of these variables as major determi- nants of cross-cultural variations in infant mortality has been noted in previous studies (Adelman, 1963; Caldwell & McDonald, 1981; Flegg, 1982; Friedlander & Silver, 1967; Heer, 1966). One of the principal advantages of path analysis is that it enables researchers to measure the direct and indirect effects that one variable has on another (Asher, 1983). It is also a useful 25 approach to quantifying and interpreting causal theory in sociology (Duncan, 1973; Goldberg & Duncan, 1973; Lewis-Beck, 1974). W In this section, the hypothesized relationships and the compo- nents of the model are explained, and the empirical findings for each variable are briefly discussed. The major concern in con- structing the model was to ascertain the degree of empirical support for the model as presented. In this manner, the model itself can be regarded as the major hypothesis or collection of hypotheses. In this section, illustration of the path analytic principles of the six-variable causal model are explained, and the nature of each component and its effects are briefly discussed. The» most productive path toward explaining determinants of infant mortality would appear to be the tracing of interrelationships between infant mortality (the dependent variable) and other indicators (as independent variables). The conclusion of the present research should agree with the relationships presented. They are: 1. Five path coefficients link all independent variables to infant mortality. 2. Three path coefficients link GNP per capita to infant mor- tality: through adult literacy, through women’s participation in the labor force, and through access to piped water. 26 3. Three path coefficients link population density to infant mortality through adult literacy: through women’s participation in the labor force, and through access access to piped water. 4. One path coefficient links population density to adult literacy and to infant mortality: through women’s participation in the labor force. 5. The residual terms: The model includes a path coefficient to capture the relationship between the unobserved residual term (not shown in the model) and infant mortality. The causal model representing some of the hypothesized determi- nants of infant mortality is shown in Figure 3.2. I I I I I I + \I I I I I ADULT I I I I ........ >I LITERACY I I I I I + I I I I I II I II I GNP I I I I - I I I |PER CAPITAI - I + I PIPED I I INFANT I i I I I ------------ i -------- >i WATER i --->|MORTALITY| + I I i i I 4' I I + I I I ---------- >I WLABOR I I I I I -------------- >I I I I I I + I I _I I I I I POPULATION I ------------------------------- I I | DENSITY | I I -------------------------------------------------- Figure 3.2.--Proposed causal model of infant mortality. 27 The pluses (+) and minuses (-) in the model indicate the direc- tion of the hypothesized relationships. For example, a country’s GNP per capita and its population density were posited as predeter- mined variables and were thus placed to the left in the diagram. They were assumed to be uncorrelated for the purpose of this study. Both greater GNP per capita and more population density were hypoth- esized to affect positively adult literacy, women’s participation in the labor force (negatively with GNP per capita), and access to piped water. The five variables were hypothesized to have negative direct causal effects on infant mortality. Components of thesModel Infant mortality. Infant mortality is dependent on multiple factors acting concurrently on the biological and physical environ- ment in which people live. It is often difficult to conduct studies of’ causal relationships of infant mortality because it is not possible to identify all of the variables that indirectly or directly cause infant mortality. However, socioeconomic variables have been noted in previous studies (Adelman, 1963; Friedlander & Silver, 1967; Heer, 1966; Houser, 1955). For example, in reducing infant mortality, Hobcraft et al. (1982) emphasized the interplay of literacy, income, occupation, and work characteristics. This is because when people can be expected to be better nourished and to have better housing conditions, they become more likely to recog- nize illness requiring medical intervention and less likely to seek religious treatments (Caldwell & McDonald, 1981; Fle99, 1982). 28 In the model, the independent variables were limited to GNP per capita, population density, adult literacy, women’s participation in the labor force, and access to piped water. In the remaining part of this chapter, hypothesized relationships among the variables and with infant mortality are briefly discussed. gNE_peL_eep1te_epg_ipjept_mpytelity. The initial factor to be considered in this model was GNP per capita. Although not all modernization is economic, economic change was assumed to be at the heart of the modernization process. GNP per capita is an indicator believed widely by many social scientists to reflect the economic condition of a nation (McGranahan et al., 1972; United Nations, 1975). More specifically, several studies have indicated high correlation between GNP per capita and economic and social indicat- ors. Sheehan and Hopkins (1978) pointed out that "the most important variable explaining the average level of basic needs satisfaction is per capita GNP“ (p. 95) Therefore, it was assumed in the present study that GNP per capita was associated negatively with infant mortality. Pppgletjpn; deneity end infent mortality. Pbpulation density refers to the relative size of a population with reference to the space it occupies. The concentration of population may well make it easier for governments to meet basic needs (Yotopoulis & Bovee, 1981). Such concentration is often associated with urbanization, industrialization, and modernization (Levy, 1962). 29 A comparative analysis of socioeconomic differentials of infant mortality showed that infant mortality is generally lower in more densely populated areas, and lowest of all in dense metropolitan areas (Hobcraft et al., 1982). In developing countries, infant mortality is often thought to be higher in rural than urban areas. In several high-mortality countries, notably Haiti, Sudan, and Bangladesh, infant mortality rates are lower in high-density areas than in low-density areas (Sawyer, 1978). According to these empirical findings, a negative relationship was expected to be found between population density and infant mor- tality in the Muslim countries. Adult literacy aLnd infent mortajitv. Social change usually I accompanies economic change. Of the important aspects of change that promote specific behavior, adult literacy (male and female) is a crucial factor in the creation of certain culturally approved values. One of these values is social and economic betterment (Inkeles & Smith, 1974; Olson, 1960). Many researchers have observed and noted a distinct relationship between literacy and social behavior and lifestyles (Lerner, 1958; McClelland, 1962; Waisanen, 1969). The level of literacy of parents has an almost competitive effect. The key factor seems to be that of literate women who increasingly are seen by both themselves and others as being part of a global society with an accepted attitude toward bacterial contamination and correspond- ing hygienic methods, the use of modern medical facilities, and 30 persistence in recommended treatments, which in turn decrease infant mortality (Caldwell, 1981). In the modern world, educational level is a crucial determinant of both societal development and individual status (Houser, 1979). Adult literacy was thought to be more sensitive to infant mortality than the Igeneral education variable because the survival of an infant is very much linked to the quality of parental care concern- ing immunization. Therefore, adult literacy was expected in the model to be negatively related to infant mortality. meen’e perticipetion in the lebor force and infant mortality. In the change process, the economy is usually transformed from being largely agrarian to nonagricultural, which changes the occupations in which men and women can participate. Women’s participation in the labor force is expected to affect infant mortality because parents with higher income levels are more likely to be economically better off and can afford more help to take care of the children. Therefore, a negative relationship was assumed between women’s par- ticipation in the labor force and infant mortality. Aeeee; tp piped water end infent mortality. Access to piped water improves the health status in general and reduces infant mor- tality 'hi particular. Houser (1979) pointed out that reducing infant mortality depends upon improved economic conditions for the mass of population. Field research has shown that clean water supply reduces the incidence of gastroenteritis and diarrheal disease, both of which are most likeky to be contacted from 31 contaminated water (Caldwell & McDonald, 1981). Furthermore, with piped water, cleanliness increases and contact with infection decreases. People who see such a result are more likely to behave in accordance with beliefs in bacterial, rather than religious, pollution. Therefore, it was hypothesized that access to piped water was negatively associated with infant mortality. ’r ' t m . As mentioned earlier, the relationships among the independent variables were expected to be positive except for the association between GNP per capita and women’s participation in the labor force, in which high GNP per capita is observed among countries deeply entrenched in a traditional culture in which women are not encouraged to work. These hypotheses can be traced easily in the diagram. For example, the higher the GNP per capita in a country, the less the infant mortality rate will be in that country. For an indirect relation- ship, three steps have to be made. For example, IF: The higher the GNP per capita in a country, the greater will be the adult literacy rate in that country. And IF: The greater the adult literacy rate in a country, the lower is the infant mortality rate in that country. THEN: he higher the GNP per capita in a country, the less will be the infant mortality rate in that country.\ The same logic applies to each indirect relationship in the model. Other Variables For further comparison of the variables used in the causal model, four discrete variables were selected to be tested for 32 significance. They are geographic location, ethnicity, political type, and oil production. Classification of countries in terms of these variables was arbitrary while the complex issues surrounding them were neglected in the present research. (For these complex issues see Lipset’s Epljtieel Men; Ashford’s Netjppel Develppment MUM; Almond & Powell’s tpmperetjve Pplitjee [opey; and Remmer & Merkx’s writings on bureaucracy in Latin America.) The variables used were selected to facilitate comparison to the six variables used in the causal model. These variables are discussed in the following paragraphs. Gepgraphie Loeation Two broad categories were observed and countries were divided into African and Asian nations. The dependence of civilization on geographic environment has long been accepted. Montesqieu, for example, emphasized the influence of geographical distribution on civilizations, pointing out that centers of civilization lie within the temperate zone and diminish in quality near the tropics and the polar regions. Anthropologists and sociologists have found that the environment shapes people’s activities and behaviors. Ibn Khaldun in his Mugaddimah described the influence of environment and geographic location on populations and their civilizations. Viner (cited in Novack, 1964) mentioned foreign trade as another important aspect of nations’ geographic location. He said: "Geographical situation of a country is also significant with respect to its opportunities for profitable foreign 33 trade, since proximity to foreign markets and sources of supply can be of great importance" (p. 81). It was expected, however, that the extent of change in the selected variables would be found to be greater, in Asian Muslim countries than in African Muslim countries. The logic of this expectation depends on moderate climates, rich resources, and high literacy rates observed in most Asian countries as opposed to African countries. hni Back round With respect to this variable, countries were divided into two broad divisions--Arab and non-Arab Muslim nations--because cultural background plays an important role in social change. The use of ethnicity as a variable for comparison will help in understanding the differences and/or similarities between the two groups. It was expected, however, that the extent of change in the selected variables would be more in Arab Muslim countries than in non-Arab Muslim countries. This expectation was based on the socioeconomic measures of GNP per capita, physical quality of life index (POLI), and other economic and social measures. This was also demonstrated in some vital statistics published by the United Nations and its specialized organizations. Politice] Type In relation to this variable, countries were broadly grouped into two types (with the exception of Iran): nonrepublican and republican regimes. The writer expected that change in the 34 selected social variables would be larger in nonrepublican political systems than in republican ones. Such expectations depend on the fact that the stability and order in most nonrepublican political systems was observed to encourage advancement in the social aspects of' national development. more than the instability and conflict. This notion, moreover, has been emphasized by social scientists, who have supported the notion that a certain amount of stability is needed for initiating development plans, especially in the newly independent states (Lerner, 1958; Levy, 1962; Remmers & Merkx, 1982). Further, most republican regimes (for example, Syria, Libya, Iraq, Algeria, Malaysia, and Indonesia) have resulted from military cpups g’etet or from national movements against imperial powers. Such activities imply, in most cases,. instability rather than stability. An exception to this grouping, however, was the Islamic Republic of Iran, which has faced radical political change during the period studied, in which the term "republican" might be accurate to describe the country after 1979, but inaccurate to describe the Shah’s regime before 1979. To overcome this problem, it was suggested to exclude Iran from the data analysis under this variable. Ojl eng Nonpil Propuetion Oil-producing countries began to take an important position in the world economy after the oil embargo of 1974. Eleven of the 13 members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) were Muslim countries (seven Arab and four non-Arab). 35 Countries according to this variable were divided into two categories: oil-producing and nonoil-producing countries. The writer’s expectation was that change would be greater among oil- producing countries than nonoil-producing countries. WW andiccjaubms It was decided that, to make sense of the findings, a comparison of the social changes in the countries under study vis-a- vis their religiosity and fundamentalism was necessary. Fundamentalism is a Western concept. In the Christian faith, it means a religious movement that emphasizes Biblical literalism and the final authority of the Bible. The term is sometimes applied to those who have accepted the literal truth of the Bible even in past centuries. The term also was observed as a reaction against "modernism," which rejected certain traditional Christian beliefs and advocated the application of scholarly and scientific criticism to the Bible. The term has been applied by Westerners to the Muslim societies without distinguishing the great differences between the cultural backgrounds of both societies. In Islam, the terms "Usuliyyah" and ”Ilmaniyyah" have been used by Muslim writers. The first describes these who emphasize Qur’anic and Sunnah literalimn, as opposed to the second term, "ilmaniyyah," which describes those~ who reject traditional beliefs if these beliefs stand against scientific thinking as a basis of growth and change. 36 It was very difficult, however, to measure "Usuliyyah" and "ilmaniyyah" in the Muslim countries since they ck) not mean fundamentalism and modernism as understood by Westerners, and because of lack of information and the inner feelings of the people, which cannot be easily determined by research questions. However, the term "Usuliyyah" can be measured by asking a selected sample of Muslim social scientists who represent a large number of Muslim nations to rate countries in this dimension. Their responses, even though they may not be the most accurate method of measurement, remain the most feasible method to measure the general “Usuliyyah" variable in the Muslim countries. The countries were ranked according to a sample of responses and compared with certain indicators to test the modernization assumption that social change have odcurred to a greater extent among less religious countries than more religious ones. But the various differences among nations in terms of social aspects studied have shown deviation from the above-mentioned modernization assumption. The ranking of nations on religiosity was made according to a survey' distributed among certain selected Muslim social scientists at the 19th Annual Conference of their association at Dearborn, Michigan, October 26 -28, 1990. The present writer has been an active member of the association since 1984. The selection of the sample was made by consultation with several members who have similar interests. It was decided to have a 37 selected sample (panel) representing various areas of national origin, for example, from Pakistan, Bangladesh, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Somalia, and Sudan. The difficulty of dealing with countries’ ranking was minimal since the contributors have long dealt with socio-anthropological and political issues similar to the issue at hand. Ten scholars were selected as an initial list, and a questionnaire was distributed. Nine responses were included in the analysis and reported. The ranking of Muslim nations was dependent on each respondent’s expertise and knowledge of Islamic countries. The ranking was general, with no precise criteria. The respondents were asked to rank nations’ religiosity in terms of fundamentalism and religious services provided in each country. They were also told that this was not a systematic measurement of religiosity, but rather an educated guess to compare with other findings on social aspects in the Muslim nations. Time Periog pf Comperieog A ten-year period was selected over which to assess differences in social change. The years 1975 and 1985 were selected because most of the nations included in the study were newly independent shortly' before 1975. Also, the nature of the study implies that a ten-year period is much better than a five-year span for comparing changes in social aspects. Further, although most comparative studies take the beginning of a decade as the start of 'their study period, this writer chose the mid-point of the 38 decade. One reason for this choice is that some of the countries under study did not become members of the OIC until 1973, a year that was marked with regional and international tension in the area concerning the continuing Israeli occupation of Arab lands and the oil crisis. Also, in this period, a shift toward peace was observed as a policy adopted by OIC member-states. This significant occurrence, paving the way for social development, began slightly before 1975. T S u o h s For the purpose of statistical analysis, 49 hypotheses were formulated. To simplify matters, the 49 hypotheses were divided into three groups: (a) 13 hypotheses concerning the five aspects and their indicators of social change between 1975 and 1985, (b) 12 hypotheses concerning the path-model analysis, and (c) 24 hypotheses concerning the discrete variables. In addition, for comparison purposes, countries were ranked by a selected sample in terms of the nations’ religiosity and fundamentalism to test, unstatistically, certain modernization assumptions. The hypotheses in detail were as follows: Hyppthesee of Spcial Change 19 the Two lime Period; It was hypothesized that a change did not occur in 1985 compared with 1975 in each of the social aspects, as well as in their respective indicators. For statistical purposes, these hypotheses were stated in the following form: 39 Egpeetjon hypotheees: Hypptheei; 1. Education in the Muslim nations under study is significantly higher in 1985 than 1975. flyppthesiLL Female enrollment in the Muslim nations under study is significantly higher in 1985 than 1975. flyppthe§1§_1t Adult literacy in the Muslim nations under study is significantly higher in 1985 than 1975. W: Hypptheejs 4. Health in the Muslim nations under study is significantly higher in 1985 than 1975. Hypptheeis 5. Infant mortality in the Muslim nations under study is significantly lower in 1985 than 1975. flypptheei; 5. Death rate in the Muslim nations under study is significantly lower in 1985 than 1975. prejng Hypptheeee: Hypptheeie 7. Housing in the Muslim nations under study is significantly higher in 1985 than 1975. Hypptheeis 8. Access to piped water in the Muslim nations under study is significantly higher in 1985 than 1975. MM Access to energy in the Muslim nations under study is significantly higher in 1985 than 1975. F rc m ' i n H th s Hyppthesie 10. Labor force composition in the Muslim nations under study is significantly higher in 1985 than 1975. Hypptheei; 11. Women’s participation in the labor force in the Muslim nations under study is significantly higher in 1985 than 1975. Hypothesis 1;. Men’s participation in the labor force in the Muslim nations under study is significantly higher in 1985 than 1975. 40 Poljtieal Pertieipatjpn Hypptheeie: Hypptheejs 13. Citizen participation in the Muslim nations under study is significantly higher in 1985 than 1975. W The sign of relationships between infant mortality and other variables was expected to be minus (-). It was also hypothesized that the relationship sign between these variables other than infant mortality was expected to be positive (+). Such expectations were drawn from generalizations in the literature of social demography (Goldscheider, 1971; Lerner, 1958). The expected relationships are explained in the following manner: fan Mort it th e : i 4 The higher the GNP per capita in the Muslim nations, the lower infant mortality in these nations. Hypptheeie 15. The higher the population density rate in the Muslim nations, the lower infant mortality in these nations. Hypptheeis 1§. The higher the literacy rate in the Muslim nations, the lower infant mortality in these nations. Hypptheeie 17, The higher women’s participation in the labor force in the Muslim nations, the lower infant mortality in these nations. Hypptheeie 18, The higher the access to piped water in the Muslim nations, the lower infant mortality in these nations. A o e W t r H the Hypptheeie 12. The higher the GNP per capita in the Muslim nations, the higher access to piped water in these nations. Hypotheeie go. The higher the population density in the Muslim nations, the higher access to piped water in these nations. 41 meep’; Participetion in the Labor Forge Hypptheeeez Hyppthesie 21. The higher GNP per capita in the Muslim nations, the lower' women’s participation in the labor force in these nations Hyppthesje 22. The higher population density in the Muslim nations, the higher women’s participation in the labor force in these nations. The higher adult literacy in the Muslim nations, the higher women’s participation in the labor force in these nations. i r H th s: flyppthesis 24. The higher GNP per capita in the Muslim nations, the higher adult literacy in these nations. Hypotheeie 25. The higher population density in the Muslim nations, the higher adult literacy in these nations. Qieerete-Vepiaplee Hypptheees Twenty-four hypotheses were formulated to be tested for sig- nificant differences between categories of each variable (geographic location, ethnic background, political type, and oil production) in terms of the six variables used in the path model. These were: Geogpephie Loeation Hyppthesee: flypptheeje 26. Asian nations are not significantly higher than African nations in adult literacy. flypptheeje 27. Asian nations are not significantly higher than African nations in women’s participation in the labor force. Hypothesie 28. Asian nations are not significantly higher than African nations in access to piped water. Hypothesis 29. Asian nations are not significantly higher than African nations in population density. 42 Asian nations are not significantly higher than African nations in GNP per capita. Asian nations are not significantly higher than African nations in infant mortality. WWW: Arab nations are not significantly higher than non-Arab nations in adult literacy. Arab nations are not significantly higher than non-Arab nations in access to piped water. Hyppthesie 54. Arab nations are not significantly higher than non-Arab nations in women’s participation in the labor force. Hypptheeie 35. Arab nations are not significantly higher than non-Arab nations in GNP per capita. Hypotheeie 36. Arab nations are not significantly higher than non-Arab nations in population density. Hypotbeeie 37, Arab nations are not significantly higher than non-Arab nations in infant mortality. P 1i i T H he Hyppthe§j§ 38. Nations of republican political type are not significantly higher than nations of nonrepublican type in adult literacy. Hyppthe§j§ :2. Nations of republican political type are not significantly higher than nations of nonrepublican type in access to piped water. Hypotheei; 40, Nations of republican political type are not significantly higher than nations of nonrepublican type in women’s participation in the labor force. Hypotheei; 41. Nations of republican political type are not significantly higher than nations of‘ nonrepublican type in population density. Hypothesie 42. Nations of republican political type are not significantly higher than nations of nonrepublican type in GNP per capita. 43 Hypptheeie 4;. Nations of republican political type are not significantly higher than nations of nonrepublican type in infant mortality. - r i n H h 44 Oil-producing nations are not significantly higher than nonoil-producing nations in adult literacy. Hypptheeje 45, Oil-producing nations are not significantly higher than nonoil-producing nations in access to piped water. flypotheei; 46, Oil-producing nations are not significantly higher than nonoil-producing nations in women’s participation in the labor force. Hypptheeie 47. Oil-producing nations are not significantly higher than nonoil-producing nations in population density. Hypptheei; 45. Oil-producing nations are not significantly higher than nonoil-producing nations in GNP per capita. Hypptheeie 49. Oil-producing nations are not significantly higher than nonoil-producing nations in infant mortality. Religipsity ang Modernigetipn Aseumptions The measurement of religiosity was intended to be objective in the present study. However, it was decided that to make sense of the findings on social aspects of change to rank the countries under study somehow using a panel or survey to be distributed among selected small sample. After consultation, the sample was selected, the survey was distributed, the responses were received, and the ranking table was made. The assumption was as follows: According to modernization theory, it was assumed that change in the social aspects among the nations studied would be more among those countries with low religiosity and would be less among those countries with high 44 religiosity. It was expected, however, that such an assumption is far from being completely true among the nations studied, taking into consideration the various differences among them in terms of the nation’s wealth and health. This assumption, even though it was not statistically tested, was expected to give some insights into understanding certain findings. CHAPTER IV THE MUSLIM WORLD Irving (1986) described the Muslim World in the following words: "The Muslim world stretches from Morocco on the Atlantic to the Islands of Indonesia on the Pacific. It embraces the vast underbelly of Europe and the Soviet Union." In the first two parts of this chapter, the Muslim world is defined and its socio- demographic characteristics are described. Included are population dynamics (density and growth), geographic location, ethnicity, political types, and wealth and oil production. The emergence of the Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC) and its objectives are covered in the third part of the chapter. Definition of the Muslip_prld When writers use the term "Muslim world,” they usually mean those countries whose citizens follow the Islamic faith, despite their' diverse cultures, languages, and political types or ideologies. The term by itself is misleading to the layman. In the past, the term "Muslim world" referred to the areas under the (domination of the Islamic empire, beginning with the state under the third caliph, Omar, the Umayyad, the Abbasids, and finally the Otrtoman caliphate. In recent times, the actual meaning of the term 45 46 has changed because of the diversity of Muslim peoples, races, religions, and national borders. After the colonization period, each Muslim country pursued its own struggle toward development. Nationalism was more appreciated than religion. Therefore, Arabism was a leading symbol in the days of Egypt’s Nasser. Saudi Arabia, because of its position as the center of the Muslim holy places and as the center of wealth after the 1973 oil embargo, broadened the concept to Islamism rather than Arabism. Several reasons were behind that transformation. One was to attack the wave of communism, and another may have been the failure of Arabism to achieve victory over Israel. The Muslim world began to be recognized in the international world system after the oil embargo, which affected the West in its basic need for industrialization and modernity. The term "Muslim world" was misunderstood because most oil-producing countries were Arabic, and Islam became synonymous with Arab. After the success of the Iranian Islamic revolution, which overthrew the Shah’s regime, the Muslim world began to have a new meaning and to be connected with Iran, although Shi’ite Muslims, the revolutionaries in Iran, comprise only one-tenth of the Muslim population worldwide. The establishment of the Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC) gave the Islamic world a new identity. Decisions became collective, especially those involving regional and global economic and political problems. Other terms have been used to denote the Muslim world, such as the Middle East, the Near East, and the Fertile Crescent (the area 47 located between and linking, the three continents of the old and the new world). This location has contributed to the existence of extreme racial and cultural mixtures, which have stamped the nations of the region with differentiation of progress, development, and modernization. The population of the Muslim world is a mixture of Bedouins, peasants, and urban dwellers. Transition of regions and nations is a marked feature, despite the radically different religions, racial origins, and languages. Tradition exists side by side with secularism, or, in sociological terms, the sacred and the profane are competing in a strongly traditional culture. The progress of world communication systems and inventions has contributed to the decline of isolation of agricultural and desert populations. Such transformation has created and still creates local as well as global unrest and tension. Sietz (1988) recognized this unrest, especially in the Middle East, which includes a large number of Muslim nations. He stated: The Middle East . . . is a highly unstable area. It is torn by regional conflicts (the Arabs against Israel, .Iran against Iraq, Syria against Iraq, Egypt against Libya); by religious conflicts (Moslem against Jew, Christian against Moslem, Shi’ite Moslem against Sunni Moslem); by social and ideological conflicts (traditionalists against radicals); and by East-West competition (the USA against the Soviet Union). (p. 78) The Muslim world today can be likened to an eagle. Its body is the Arabian peninsula (from South Yemen in the South to Turkey in the North), and its two wings represent the east Asian (from Pakistan to Indonesia) and the African Islamic nations (from Egypt to Sierra Leone) (see Maps 1, 2, and 3). 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T 50 Madagascar Mauritius .\\\ 'T' Reunion _I'llhummununwmmusdumhhkammmma W State: having numerical Muslim majority [1111111 States where Muslims form more than 10% ot the population N State: where Muslim: form more than 1% at the population "'"fl States where Muslims term more than 1%. at the population Map 3.--Muslim countries in Africa. 51 description is accurate, it is useful in dividing the Muslim nations into three units in terms of their geographic characteristics. h Mu W It is beyond the scope of this dissertation to discuss all the characteristics of the Muslim world, but a few of the problems that influence current trends in the Muslim world are pertinent to the present discussion. These dilemmas--population growth, politi- cal leadership, secularity as a cultural crisis, and distribution of wealth-~are discussed in the following pages. The narrative sheds some light on demographic and socioeconomic characteristics, with special emphasis on population dynamics (density and growth), geographic location, ethnicity, political types, and wealth. P i n ami s In this section, population density and population growth are described in terms of two periods: 1970-1975 and 1975-1980. den ' . Population density, which usually means the ratio of people to land area, serves many purposes in the study of population distribution. In the Muslim world, the four countries with the highest population density (more than 300 people per square kilometer) are Bangladesh (616 persons), Bahrain (585 persons), Maldives (497 persons), and Lebanon (304 persons) (see Table 4.1). Conversely, countries with a large area and a small population have a small population density. Examples are Algeria, with an area of 950,000 square meters and a density of eight persons; Libya, with 679,000 square meters and a density of two persons; Saudi Arabia, 52 with 900,000 square meters and a density of four persons; Sudan, with 967,000 square meters and a density of seven persons: and Iran, with 636,000 square meters and a density of 23 persons. Table 4.l.--Population, area, and density' of selected Muslim countries. Population Area Density Country 1985 (Million) Sq/M Sq/Km (1983) Afghanistan 14.7 250,000 30 Algeria 22.2 950,000 8 Bahrain .4 230 585 Bangladesh 101.5 55,020 616 Chad 5.2 496,000 4 Indonesia 168.4 736,000 78 Libya 4.0 679,000 2 Saudi Arabia 11.2 900,000 4 Turkey 52.1 296,000 58 Source: Compliled from several tables in UN Demographic Yearbook and A. Kettani, Muslim Minopities in the World Todey (London: Mansell Publishing, 1986). t' wt . Although there is no reliable census of the Muslim population, some figures have been estimated for each country and a total for all Muslim countries. The total Muslim population is estimated to be between 700 million and slightly over one billion. The annual rate of population growth in the Muslim countries is about 3%. It is estimated that 30 million Muslims may be added annually. In his recent publication, Meelim Minorities in the World Today, Kettani (1986) gave the total Muslim population as more than 53 one billion. Table 4.2 shows the number and percentage of Muslims in nations with populations of more than a million people. More than half of the world’s Muslims live in the 45 member-states of the OIC (636,720,000, to be exact) (Kettani, 1986). Table 4.2.--Large Muslim minority groups in selected nations with populations over one million (in thousands). Country Number of Muslims Percent China 107,000 10.5 India 84,425 12.0 Soviet Union 47,330 17.8 Ethiopia 20,460 60.0 Tanzania 10,410 55.0 Philippines 6,250 12.2 Thailand 6,000 12.0 Kenya 5,330 30.0 Mozambique 4,920 45.0 Yugoslavia 4,825 21.5 Ghana 4,240 33.0 Burma 3,560 10.7 United States 3,000 1.3 Ivory Coast 3,000 35.0 Zaire 2,800 9.0 Malawi 2,550 40.0 France 2,500 4.6 Albania 2,110 75.0 West Germany 1,800 2.9 Bulgaria 1,700 19.3 United Kingdom 1,250 2.2 6 Sri Lanka 1,168 7. Total 392,707 Source: A. Kettani, Muslim Minoritiee in the World Todey (London: Mansell Publishing, 1986). Table 4.3 shows 'these papulation figures in terms of continental regions and majority or minority status. The proportion 54 of Muslims is distributed as follows: 68.3% in Asia, 27.4% in Africa, and the remaining 4.3% on other continents. Table 4.3.--Distribution of Muslims throughout the world, 1982 (in thousands). Continent Majorities Minorities Total Asia 468,600 239,362 707,962 Africa 162,120 114,200 276,320 Europe 6,000 34,285 40,285 America --- 4,600 4,600 Oceania --- 260 260 Total 636,720 392,707 1,029,427 Source: The data were compiled from several resources, including Almanac, 1986; United Nations Demographic Year Book, and Kittani (1986). r h’ i n The» Muslint world can be divided geographically into three zones: African, West Asian, and East Asian. With the exception of Turkey, all of the Muslim countries in the OIC are located in Africa and Asia. Turkey straddles both Europe and Asia. More specifi- cally, 23 Muslim countries are located in Africa and 22 in Asia (including Turkey). The African zone includes the Muslim countries from Sierra Leone on the Atlantic Ocean to Somalia on the Arab Sea, and from Uganda in the middle of Africa to Tunisia on the Mediterranean. This zone includes all North African countries, in addition to 55 Gabon, Cameroon, Nigeria, Benin, Buriko Faso, Sierra Leone, Guinea, Gambia, Senegal, Mauritania, Somalia, Djibouti, Uganda, and Sudan. The total population living in this zone numbers 276,320,000. The West Asian zone includes South and North Yemen, Oman, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, and Turkey, with a population of 107,900,000. The East Asian zone includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Brunei, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran, and the Maldives, with a total population of 445,000,000. thni ' an 1 ur Sociologically, ethnicity came from the Greek ethos, which means people tH” nation (Gordon, 1964). It is a sense of peoplehood or nationhood. Ethnicity according to Gordon is a group of characteristics that are culturally transmitted, and ethnic group thinks of itself as viewed by others as culturally different. However, in this dissertation, ethnicity is used to have political affiliation rather than sociological orientation. The 23 Arab countries in the Arab League have about 181,120,000 inhabitants. Of that number, 92.4% (167,340,000 people) are Muslims. Arabs in the Muslim world constitute slightly more than one-fifth of the total Muslim population. Non-Arab Muslims live in 22 countries in Asia and Africa that belong to the OIC. The remain- ing Muslims are scattered throughout the world. In many cases, Muslims living as minorities in non-Muslim countries outnumber Muslim majorities in OIC member-states. For example, more than half 56 of the world’s Muslim population (about 503,380,000 people) live in five countries: Indonesia (168 million), China (77 million), Pakistan (99 million), Bangladesh (101 million), and India (61 million); three of these countries are members of the OIC. The other half of the Muslim population live as a minority under non- Islamic regimes. According to racial divisions, inhabitants of the West Asian zone are Caucasians, similar in appearance to the Greeks, Spanish, Italians, and Irish. The Negroid types are scattered throughout the African zone. Inhabitants of the East Asian zone are of Mongoloid ancestry. Throughout history, the Muslim world, especially the Middle East, was a crossroads area. Thus, because of racial blending, it is now difficult to distinguish the people from different zones in terms of their physical appearance. Languages spoken in the Muslim world fall mainly into three categories: Indo-European, Turkic, and Semite languages. Persians dominate the first category and share linguistic and cultural traits with Afghans and Pakistanis; Armenians and Kurds are also considered to be linguistically related to the Persians. Linguistically, there is an affinity between India and Europe on the one hand and the Persian language on the other. The Turkic-speaking peoples are best represented by the Turks and some Turkmans and Uzbecks. The third main group is the Semite people who comprise the Middle East. The dominant group in this area is the Arabic-speaking peoples. Whereas the Arab countries share various cultural characteristics, they have numerous regional, national, and 57 religious differences. Throughout the Muslim world, group identification remains alive in terms of language, religion, and politics. Individuals find themselves with conflicting loyalties, sometimes on racial and linguistic or religious grounds, i.e., between Arabs and Israelis, among the Shi’ite, Sunni, and Yazidi sects, or between nations, as in the case of the Iraq-Iran and Iraq-Kuwait conflicts. Pplitjeal Type Various methodological and theoretical differences exist among theorists dealing with political systems. Some use the Weberian classification of social organizations, and others use modernity and ideology to classify political systems. A third group assigns the criteria of group interest and party involvement in decision making, whereas yet another group of theorists divides nations into democratic and nondemocratic political systems. Our intention concerning this variable, however, will be given to the last group because the first three groups do not represent fully the Muslim nations. For instance, Muslim nations according to the Weberian model follow the traditional systems category even though they are in transition to other categories. The dominance of Islamic ideology distinguishes these countries and demolishes other ideologies as well. According to Lipset (1963), democracy is a political system which supplies regular constitutional opportunities for changing the governing officials. . . . It is a social mechanism for the resolution of the problem of 58 societal decision making among conflicting interest groups which permits the largest possible part of the population to influence these decisions through their ability to choose among alternative contenders for political office. (p. 125) Lipset stated that, from a sociological point of view, any analysis of a political system should take into account two important social conditions: consensus and cleavage. According to Lipset, without these two conditions there can be no democracy. Consensus, he explained, allows the peaceful "play” of power and the interplay of recognition between those who are in politics and those who are outside politics. On the other hand, he defined cleavage as the reason encouraging conditions for democracy. Democracy, according to the above definition, cannot suffice for the present typology of the Muslim regimes that exist today. In his comparative study of Arab political systems, Tibi (1985) listed the following four general typologies or types of government: (a) traditional political systems with religious, religio-tribal, or tribal legitimacy; (b) secular, one-party systems; (c) military regimes with a charismatic leader; and (d) democratic parliamentary political systems. Applying these typologies to the other non-Arab political systems, more similarities than differences are found between these typologies and the actual characteristics of these systems. Using a similar typology, Muinuddin (1987) considered Islamic law as the criterion for dividing Muslim countries into four groups. He stated: It is possible to divide up the States within the Islamic world into four different groups according to the legal policy and orientation followed by each of them. . . . Turkey, the only state rejecting Islamic law openly, followed a path of total 59 secularization. The disintegration of the Ottoman Empire led to the emergence of a number of Middle Eastern States called the modernist Islamic States led by Egypt which enacted codes derived from the Western World indicating Islamic law as a subsidiary source of law. This group could be contrasted with States of traditionalist orientation led by Saudi Arabia, where the only law applicable is the Shari’ah (in the case of Saudi Arabia it is the Hanbali school which is officially fellowed) and where the sovereign is given exclusive competence on matters of public administration (sjyeee ehp’jyyeh) in a way that does not contradict the Shari’ah. Finally, the Islamic States of Asia and Africa previously colonized by the Ehglish :2? French retained the Common Law or Civil Law systems. (p. Muinuddin’s division does not describe the Muslim nations as adequately' as does Tibi’s typology, discussed above, which this writer believes is more accurate. Politically speaking, Lipset (1963) in his Pplitjeal Mep recog- nized that two political categories exist in the world: democratic and nondemocratic (totalitarian) types of governments. Almond (1956) found a fourfold classification of political systems to be most usefhl: the Anglo-American, continental European, preindus- trial (or partially industrial), and totalitarian political systems. Looking at this classification, however, it is seen that it does not include many countries, among them the majority of Islamic nations (Macridis & Brown, 1972). However, Almond included the states he missed in his typology, but this time in terms of interest groups and political parties. The Anglo-American remained the first type; in the second type he included Asia, the Middle East, and Latin Merica, in which neither interest groups nor parties are fully (iifferentiated. In the third type he included Italy, France, and 60 Germany as a group following the Anglo-American type. In the fourth type, Almond included Scandinavian and Low Countries. In general, the Muslim countries have been independent for a short time. For instance, of the 96 nations that have become independent since 1943, 38 are member-nations of the OIC. Eight of them have been independent less than 20 years. These countries are the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Oman, and Qatar (1971); Bangla- desh (1972): Guinea. (1974); Comoros (1975); Djibouti (1977); and Brunei (1983). Conversely, only five Muslim nations were independ- ent before 1943. These are Iran (1906), Egypt (1922), Turkey (1923), North Yemen (1928), and Saudi Arabia (1932). WM A gap between rich and poor countries exists worldwide and in the Muslim world in particular. Even though some economic indicators, such as life expectancy, literacy, and declining infant mortality rate improved in many of these countries between 1960 and 1980, the world in general and the Muslim countries in particular continue to experience large disparities in wealth and per-capita income. In terms of wealth, the inequality among Muslim countries is obvious, whether in terms of GNP or export-import measurements. For example, the oil-rich countries can be considered to be on the highest side of a scale and the remaining Muslim countries on the lower half of the same scale. The mean individual income of the oil-rich countries (N = 12), is $13,494, compared with $597 in non- 61 oil-rich Muslim countries (N - 24); the mean individual income for all Muslim countries is $3,896. Only seven countries have mean individual incomes higher than the mean; the remainder have incomes lower than the mean. Comparing Arab with non-Arab Muslim countries, the mean GNP per capita among Arab countries (N - 23) is $5,665, and for non-Arab countries (N . 20) the mean is $1,507. The gap between Arab oil- producing countries and Arab nonoil-producing countries is clear with such a comparison: Whereas the GNP per capita in the first group was $18,171 in 1983, it was $664 in the second group that same year. In terms of exports and imports, the total export of six Gulf State members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) was $163.01 billion in 1981 or 57.9% of the total export of all Muslim countries. The total import was $58.15 billion or 29.1% of that of all Muslim countries. The same year, Saudi Arabia alone had a total export of $119.8 billion or 42.6% of the export of all Muslim countries, and a total import of $35.1 billion or 17.6% of that of all Muslim countries. Whereas the imports of 18 countries amount to less than $1 billion each year, the exports of 21 countries amount of less than $1 billion a year. Table 4.4 shows export-import figures and other statistics for selected Muslim countries. What distinguishes the six Gulf States from other Muslim countries is their small population and their extreme wealth. Although the six states had a total population of less than 15 million in 1981-82, their per-capita GNP was very high. Two of the 62 .mo_sa==ou n~c< mcpozucc¢-—_o we :c_a-_=~meo oga =_ senses a a. uqumu occ.°°¢._ oco.mm_ com oo.o~ oo.s_ almoeoee_ mm~._oc._ co°.~. ewe cm.m om.m season oeo.oee cc~.~. ooc._ o~.a o~.m sexesh mam.mcm °o°.¢m on" oo.o oe.~ =~3m_xaa mma.m¢_ ooo.oa m__ .5. as. gmaeapmemm wmqflqmatumflwmuoemtpwocoz cc°.~m em_.. occ.m~ cm.m o¢.m_ Amma_. .u.<.= cco.cmm.~ ace. eam.m_ o~.mm cm.mp_ A_ma_. ~_aac< _e=~m ace... LGN. cco.mm om._ om.e A~mmPv Lassa Em..~_~ cam. cam.e °L.~ °¢.¢ A~mm_. ease m_m.~_ can. ocm.e_ oL.o o~.m. .Nmm.. S_~3=x use. see. .m~.a an.” °~.m LNmmpv =.~L;~m cc¢.~ acm.o~ _ma._ °_.~_ om.~_ Ammo_. ~_cmo.< waqaqazuaadumUSHNNHHa Aux: coo. .cc.__.z. .av aze A=°_.__m a. .=o___.m a. aeocsou aog< co.a~_:aom sapaau-gma acca5_ ueoaxm .mmpsaczcu Ep—maz DwaUQ—wm .2: 9250022: Uwficccumomucmtu.v.v m—amh 63 states (the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait) had higher per-capita GNPs than such advanced nations as Switzerland, Sweden, the United States, and Japan whose per-capita GNPs were $16,440, $13,520, $11,360, and $9,890, respectively, in 1983. There are many reasons for considering the Gulf States as a unit, because their characteristics differ from those of other Muslim states. Politically, the council of the Gulf States was established in 1979 to enhance cooperation between member-states and to develop their potential in all aspects of life, especially the economic area. The small population of most of these states may be the reason for their unity. The six member-states--Oman, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia--are generally known as the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). The organization was established on May 25, 1981. Its goals are to enhance cooperation in the fields of industry, agriculture, transportation, energy, defense, and investment. The Council meets annually in regular sessions in one of the member-states. The Supreme Council decides the overall policy of the organization. [he Qrganizetion pf the 1§lamic Conference It is common knowledge that there is more gain in nations’ association than their isolation; the identities of interest may be economic, social, and/or' political. In any association, it is assumed that a common denominator encourages coalition for certain purposes. For example, after the Second World War several international organizations were established, such as the United 64 Nations, the Warsaw Pact, the European Economic Community, and the Arab League. Even though these organizations differ widely in their objectives, they all have a commonality that binds together their states into an organizational fabric. The OIC is no exception to the general rule. As with other alliances, the OIC countries have different political systems, languages, and cultures. The majority of OIC states share a common religion, closely comparable social structures, and a common. history, all of which encourage coalition and unity. In today’s world there is a tendency toward peace, or at least toward using negotiations rather than power and arms to resolve disputes and conflicts. The OIC was established within this framework, as represented by the United Nations system, to promote- universally accepted principles of international law. As a result of the recent political resurgence of Islam in Iran and Pakistan and to some extent in Libya, two approaches to handling international conflict have emerged in the OIC; one follows the classical Islamic conception of international relations in terms of the Jihad (the holy war). According to this conception, the Jihad is the only basis for external relations between Muslims and non- Muslims. The second approach, however, is opposed to the first. It asserts that other methods can be used and emphasizes that the Jihad is not the sole basis of international relations. The differences between the two approaches have created problems not only in theory, but also in the practical implications of the approaches. In rejecting the first approach, the West 65 unfortunately is neglecting the power of the second. Such rejection gives the Jihad approach more power in the Muslim world vis-a-vis the second method. In terms of the sociological theory of modernization, those espousing the Jihad are commensurate with the traditional social type represented by Iran and Pakistan, and those supporting the second approach are commensurate with the secular modern social type represented by Turkey, Tunisia, and Egypt. The Pgrppee pf the QIQ The OIC consists of 45 member-states based on the charter of the Islamic Conference, which came into force in February 1973. The OIC is an organization of Islamic states that was institutionalized to achieve rapprochement, solidarity, and cooperation among member- states (Muinuddin, 1987). The OIC is "a heterogeneous assembly of States which could not justifiably be called a ’regional’ organization" because of the geographical distances separating them. Culturally speaking, no "common cohesive political, economic, social, and cultural factors deemed to be essential preconditions for regional ’integration’ could be said to be ’absent’ in this case" (Muinuddin, 1987, p. 69). The OIC is a group of developing nations that share a colonial or semi-colonial history in addition to a brief experience of independence. Despite the heterogeneous character of the OIC, its charter reflects some basic principles to which its members, as well as the wider international community, consent. The organization is based 66 primarily on religion, which functions as the cohesive force that binds the member-states together despite difference in ideology and political systems. The resolution "to preserve Islamic spiritual, economic, and social values does not reinforce any commitment on the part of the member States to the Shari’ah" (Muinuddin, 1987, p. 108). Such a loose, flexible framework was encouraged to enhance Muslim states’ rapprochement and solidarity. Whatever the justification, the OIC in its charter follows the Western way of resolving disputes and conflicts through negotiation rather than by launching a Jihad as some Muslim sects do. Concerning this issue, Muinuddin explained: "Many African and Asian States, including OIC member States, prefer to settle their conflicts by negotiation, mediation, and conciliation" (p. 95). The Rppt; pf the 915 After the caliphate institution was abolished, the Muslim world was left open to foreign domination and colonialism. It was unthinkable to find a Muslim unity outside the caliphate institu- tion. Several other factors mitigated against such unity. Al-Ahsan (1988) mentioned some of these reasons: They (the Muslim nations] were politically too weak to organize themselves under a single leadership. . . . Muslim territories were colonies of one or the other European powers, and those which had nominal independence were not strong enough to assume the leadership of all the Muslims. (p. 11) However, the idea of unity remained in the minds of Muslim leaders and scholars, and several conferences were held to discuss the concept. In May 1926, less than three years after the abolition 67 of the caliphate, scholars from Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, Morocco, Indonesia (the Dutch East Indies), South Africa, British India, Yemen, Palestine, Iraq, the Hijaz, and Poland attended the first conference to discuss the situation of Muslims. What distinguished this conference was that the delegations were nongovernmental. Conference leaders appealed to all Muslims to remember and to work for the purpose of reestablishing the caliphate. However, the conference, in general, failed to produce any results concerning the caliphate. Less than a month later, in June 1926, another conference was held in Makkah, Saudi Arabia, which concentrated on Muslim affairs, the holy cities, and administration of the pilgrimage. This conference resulted in the establishment of the Muslim World Congress (Mu’tamer el-Alam al-1elami), which was to convene each year during the pilgrimage period. In response to the designs of Zionism in Palestine, the conference was held in Jerusalem in 1931. Both because of internal and external international situations, the conference failed to achieve its goals. Although it failed to establish an Islamic university in Jerusalem, the conference was not a total failure; it defied the instructions of the British administration irI Palestine and protested the mandate system and French colonization of North Africa, Soviet policies in Central Asia, and Italian brutality in Libya. The most noteworthy result of the conference was the 68 establishment of an executive council of 25 members representing Muslims from all over the world. In the early 19505, as Al-Ahsan (1988) noted, two fundamental issues contributed to united activities of Muslim states at the world body.’ First, the cannon concern of Muslim states for the independence of the rest of the Muslim World. Second, the creation of the State of ’Israel’ backed by superpowers at the heart of the Muslim World. (p. 14) Karachi, Pakistan, was the site of two conferences in 1949 and 1951. At the latter conference a number of projects in the fields of commerce, education, and social welfare were proposed, and the Red Crescent Medical Relief Organization was established. In 1952, the conference was again convened in Karachi. In a speech the Grand Mufti of Palestine expressed the need for Muslim unity in light of social change in the world system. He said: Modern scientific research and discoveries have shortened distances. In these circumstances even the most powerful nations . . . cannot remain in isolation. . . . Blocks are being formed today . . . the Anglo-American block . . . [and the] communist . . . block. Each nation . . . is joining one block or the other. Only the Muslims in the face of so many difficulties and problems have so far failed to form themselves into the Ummah. Therefore, it was our duty to respond to the call of the "ulama’" of Pakistan to consider closer cooperation among the ”ulama’" of the world, to popularize Islamic culture, jurisprudence and way of life, and to replace the modern laws in Muslim countries with Islamic laws. (cited in Al-Ahsan, 1988, p. 15) Muslim leaders were not successful in producing practical solutions for Islamic unity. A major reason for this lack of success was that many Muslim leaders adopted secularized European thought and rejected the idea of Muslim unity. Two conferences that were held in 1962 and 1964 in Baghdad, Iraq, and Mogadicio, Somalia, 69 respectively, had a profound effect on the establishment of the Muslim World League (Repitetu eI-Alam el-Ielami), which was more successful than the Muslim World Congress. . In the face of Arab nationalism represented by President Nasser of Egypt, the concept of Islamism was forwarded by Saudi Crown Prince Faisal (later King Faisal), emphasizing the idea of Muslim unity based on the concept of Ummeh. In 1964, King Faisal continued his efforts "to bring nation-states together on the basis of Muslim identity as opposed to linguistic nationalist groups and secular ideas" (Al-Ahsan, 1988, p. 22). The success of the idea of bringing together Muslim nation- states can be credited primarily to King Faisal, who adopted the concept and traveled to most Muslim countries, including Iran, Jordan, Sudan, Turkey, Morocco, Guinea, Mali, and Tunisia, to make it a reality. Following his active role in bringing about Islamic unity, he called for a summit conference of all Muslim leaders to discuss Muslim affairs. The defeat of Arab nationalism in the 1967 Arab-Israeli war encouraged King Faisal to call for pan-Islamic cooperation for the purpose of liberating Jerusalem. In 1969, Muslims were outraged at the burning of the al-Aqsa mosque in Jerusalem. As a result, the only choice for Arab and non-Arab Muslim governments was to become involved in the idea of Muslim unity on traditional rather than secular Western grounds. 70 In 1972, Article I of its charter named the new institution the Organization of the Islamic Conference (Mgpathamt el-Mu’tamer e1- 1_s_1_emj_). Jeddah was designated to serve as the temporary head- quarters of the General Secretariat because of the occupation of Jerusalem. Arabic, English, and French were declared the official languages of the organization. According to Article III of the OIC Charter, the Islamic Conference comprises three main bodies: the Summit Conference, the Conference of Foreign Ministers, and the General Secretariat. The first has policy-making powers, the second is the consultative body for the first, and the third represents the functional arm for the OIC. Figure 4.1 is an organizational chart of the OIC. A Summit Conference (Heads of States and Governments) I 8 Conference of Foreign Ministers I C General Secretariat 0. Islamic Court of Justice E. Special Committees E. Subsidiary Organs G. Affiliated Organs Figure 4.1.--Organizational chart: Subsidiary and functional organs of the OIC. 71‘ Under subsidiary organs, the following bodies represent the various activities and functions of the OIC: 1. 2. 3. U" 1 . 11. OSOQNOI The Islamic Solidarity Fund The Jerusalem (Al-nge) Fund Statistical, Economic, and Social Research and Training Center for the Islamic Countries (Ankara, Turkey) Research Center for Islamic History, Art, and Culture Islamic Center for Vocational and Technical Training and~ Research Islamic Foundation for Science, Technology, and Development Islamic Center for Development of Trade Islamic Commission for the International Crescent Islamic Jurisprudence Academy The International Islamic Law Commission The Islamic Civil Aviation Council The affiliated organs are: 1. JhWN 0'! The Islamic Development Bank The International Islamic News Agency The Islamic States Broadcasting Organization The Islamic Chamber of Commerce, Industry, and Commodity Exchange The Islamic Shipowners’ Association The Islamic Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organi- zation (ISESCO) The Organization of Islamic Capitals The number of Muslim member-states grew from 24 in 1972 to 46 in 1986. The unique position of the OIC is reflected in the 72 diversity of political as well as economic systems included in its membership, such as monarchies, republics, dictatorships, and democratic socialists. In other words, using sociological terms, the organization includes both traditional and secular political systems. From a socio-demographic viewpoint, the diversities of wealth, population size, and geographic location are characteristics of the member-nations of the OIC. Nonetheless, they share a rich cultural legacy and traditional value system, despite the challenge of secular trends. The percentage of Muslim population was not the sole condition for membership in the OIC; any state whose religion was Islam and that attended the Conference was included. Nevertheless, 40% of the population of all the countries included in the OIC are Muslims. Some countries with a majority Muslim population have not joined the OIC, such as Ethiopia (60% Muslim), Albania (75% Muslim), and Tanzania (55% Muslim). In contrast, other countries with a minority Muslim population are members of the organization, such as Gabon (10% Muslim) and Benin (40% Muslim). Table 4.2 showed selected countries with over one million inhabitants and the percentage of their minority Muslim populations. The main objectives of the OIC are to promote Islamic solidarity; to encourage cooperation among the 45 member-nations in economic, social, cultural, and scientific fields; to eliminate racial tension and discrimination; and to eradicate colonialism. (Other objectives are to enhance cooperation among member-states and 73 to support world. peace and security founded on the use of negotiation and mediation to settle conflicts. Aetjyjtje; pf the 919 In the cultural field, the OIC supports education in Muslim communities throughout the world. Efforts have been made to establish Muslim universities in Niger, Uganda, and Malaysia. One of the objectives of cultural cooperation has been to organize seminars on various aspects of Islam and to encourage dialogue with adherents of other monotheistic religions. In the field of economic cooperation, a general agreement was adopted in 1981 to establish joint investment projects and trade coordination and to enhance economic and social projects in OIC member-nations. For this purpose, the Islamic Deve10pment Bank, an international financial institution, was established by the OIC in December 1973. Its goal was to encourage the economic and social progress of member-nations as well as of Muslim communities throughout the world. Table 4.5 shows project financing by sector for the years 1983-1984 and 1985-1986. From Table 4.5, a decline in the social services sector is observed from 41.37 million Islamic dinar (20.1%) to 15.57 million (8.9%) in one year. However, an increase in the agriculture and transport and communication sectors is observed from 28.79 (14.0%) and 43.43 (16.8%) million Islamic dinar to 33.04 (18.8%) and 40.56 (23.1%) million, respectively. 74 Table 4.5.--Islamic Development Bank project financing by sector, 1983-1984 and 1985-1986. Amount (Million Amount (Million Sector Islamic Oinar)* Islamic Dinar) 1983-84 % l985-86 % Agriculture 28.79 14.0 33.04 18.8 Industry and Mining 79.42 38.6 73.72 41.9 Transportation and Communication 34.43 16.8 40.56 32.1 Utilities 21.20 10.3 12.84 7.3 Social Services 41.37 20.1 15.57 8.9 Others .49 0.2 - - Total 205.70 100.0 175.73 100.0 Source: The giggle Eaet eng North Africe, 1986, 1988 (Europa Pub- lications), editions 32 and 34. *One Islamic dinar is equivalent to 055.9930. A. decline was also observed in the industrial and mining sector, where the amount spent on this sector in 1983-84 was 79.43 million Islamic dinar compared with 73.72 million 'hi 1985-86. The total amount assigned for all sectors was also declined from 205.70 million Islamic dinar in 1983-84 to 175.73 million in 1985-86. 511m The main discussion in this chapter was about the way the Muslim world as a unit constitutes the body of the member-states of the Organization of the Islamic Conference--OIC. The concept was defined, and the characteristics of the Muslim World in terms of sociodemographic indicators were discussed. Finally, the history, roots, structure, and activities of the OIC were described. CHAPTER V DESIGN AND METHODOLOGY The design and the methodology of the study are the focus of this chapter. First, the data set of nation-states included in the study is discussed. Next, the comparative analysis model is introduced. Finally, instruments of measurement and methods used in analyzing the data are explained. The Date Set The primary purpose of this research was to study social change in Muslim nations in certain areas of education, health, housing, labor force composition, and political participation. The researcher would have liked to include in the study more countries in which much social change had occurred. In practice, selection of countries was delimited to the member-states of the Organization of Islamic Conference (OIC). Thirty-six countries were selected for the study (see Appendix A), according to the following criteria: 1. Population size: Countries must have had a population of more than one million people in 1985. Such a condition was aimed at reducing the variance in change measures induced by population size. 2. Membership and political sovereignty: The country must be a member of the OIC and the United Nations and be politically 75 76 independent. This condition was made to increase the availability of data collected through United Nations agencies. 3. A majority of Muslims in its population. 1 - m Goldscheider (1971) pointed out that examining the alternating roles of population processes as both determinants and consequences of social structure and social change forms the basis for the socio- logical analysis of demographic phenomena. The notion of analysis is to include the proposed social aspects in this study. Whereas comparison is the essential methodological ingredient in the shift beyond description toward analysis, comparing nations to one another is an elementary step toward understanding change (Goldscheider, 1971). Goldscheider suggested three types of comparisons for analysis of data: historical, comparative, and hybrid. In historical analy- sis, comparison may be made over time or between two or more specific time periods, within one social unit. In comparative analysis, comparison may be made between two or more social units while holding time constant. The hybrid type of comparison retains partial features of comparative analysis (two or more units) and partial features of historical analysis (time varies). The historical-comparative model was adopted in this research to serve the purpose of comparison of the proposed social aspects in two time periods and more than one social unit. It was assumed that every country experiences change in general and in certain 77 areas in particular such as education, health, housing, labor force composition, and politics. The two time periods compared are 1975 (times 1) and 1985 (time2). Figure 5.1. shows the suggested historical-comparative model. Dimensions of Time Variable Time I Time II ; V1 HEALTH HEALTH V2 EDUCATION EDUCATION V3 LABOR FORCE LABOR FORCE COMPOSITION COMPOSITION V4 HOUSING HOUSING 3 V5 POLITICS POLITICS Figure 5.1.--The historical-comparative analysis model. To compare these changes, several computational steps need to be made for each area as well as for each indicator. These steps are: l. Computation of central tendency and dispersion. 2. Transformation Of raw scores into standardized scores in case of different measures among indicators. 78 3. Computation Of indices scores. 4. Computation of variables’ averages tO be used in the path- analysis model. The advantages of computation of indices gained by using stand- ardized scores can be Observed in ranking the countries under study on the same scale. Furthermore, such standardization was necessary to transform certain values (death rate and infant mortality, for example) into percentages in order to conform with other indicators which were already in percentage form. Another advantage Of stand- ardized scores was Observed in the computation Of the path-analysis indicators where the average Of the two scores was used. Data Dolleetion Secondary sources were used to Obtain data concerning the selected indicators. Given the tremendous cost Of collecting data, this method was preferred over other methods. Using secondary sources also provides an Opportunity to make use Of internationally available information for the purpose Of cross-cultural research. These sources include the Worlg Denk Atlas, the DNESDD Yearbook, and the nited N ion m ra hi YearbOO . Concerning the reliability of these data, it is assumed that the data included in the present study are accurate, based on their use in other studies. Such reliability, however, cannot be absolutely determined by a study Of this scope. Limitations of such data can be traced in the United Nations documents, which show that accuracy Of such data varies among agencies (governmental and private) Of data collection. In 79 general, the accuracy of the data is taken at their face value; their reliability may depend on the previous usages of the indicat- ors in cross-cultural research projects (Allen & Bentz, 1965; MacGranahan, 1970; Morris, 1979; United Nations, 1954; World Bank Publications). m ti n M r men 1 ' V l f in n i or To handle the variable values, the raw values were trans- formed for certain indicators (infant mortality, death rate, and female enrollment) into standardized values tut a loo-point scale. This was done to make these indicators conform to other indicators. Although this decision was not the most appropriate method to deal with measure differences, it was thought to best serve in under- standing the findings as Opposed to using the adding-up-indicators method without standardization. The simplicity Of the method, in fact, made it superior to any more complex method, such as that which adds up, for example, 216/1000 infant mortality rate to 35% adult literacy. Standardiza- tion here was not meant to be statistical (Z-score, for example); rather it was an attempt to deal with two different quantities in a more simplified method using one measure. Taking into considera- tion that the majority of indicators were percentages, it was decided to transform the nonpercentage indicators’ values into equally weighted percentage values. The literature on this issue gave the researcher great help. For example, Morris in 1979 and so MacGranahan in 1973 used the same method dealing with similar situa- tions. Morris in his study Meeegring the Dpngitipp pf World’s POpr: [he Ppyejeel Duelitv of Life Inge; (PQLI) used three indicators: infant mortality at age one, life expectancy, and literacy. Although literacy measures posed no problem in his measurement, life expect- ancy and infant mortality composed such a problem of scale differ- ences. Borrowing the solution from Morris to overcome the problem in this research, the following equation was used to rank nations using maximum and minimum values (MacGranahan, 1973; Morris, 1979): CIV = Xm - Xi / Xm - Xo * 100 . Variable Value (%) where: CIV - Computed indicator’s value Xm . Nation’s actual maximum score in the group Xi . Nation’s actual score Xo . Nation’s actual minimum score in the group / . Division symbol * Multiplication symbol In each indicator, multiplying the product by 100 yields the standard score. In the case of an index (more than one indicator), the scores of the indicators are added tO each other and divided by the number of indicators. The product will be the score of the index. For example, health index equals death score plus infant mortality score divided by two. To illustrate, variables Of infant mortality, death rate', and female enrollment were transformed to IOO-point scales to be in congruity with other variables. Infant mortality rates in the countries studied, for example, lie between 205/1000 and 22/1000. Applying the above equation, the country with 81 the highest infant. mortality rate was considered zero, and the lowest score was treated as 100. In other words, the country with the lowest infant mortality rate was ranked first and the country with the highest infant mortality rate was ranked last. Applying this logic for Afghanistan, for example, infant mortality will be standardized as follows: (205 -205)/ (205 - 22) * 100 - ZERO and for Kuwait using the same equation, infant mortality was given the score of 100. This was a product of the following computations: (205 - 22)/ (205 - 22) * 100 = 100 Death rate and female enrollment were calculated according to the same principle. Meaegrement pf Religioeity Although it was difficult to measure fundamentalism systemati- cally, it was suggested to use a selected sample (a panel) Of knowledgeable people to help grade the Muslim nations on a scale from (0) as the lowest degree to (10) as the highest degree Of religiosity and fundamentalism. The results are shown and compared in the data analysis chapter, and findings were discussed according to the modernization assumption that scores on social indicators were greater among less religious countries than scores on social indicators among more religious countries. It was expected, however, that this assumption was totally true for some countries 82 and partially true for others. Deviations from that assumption were Observed and noted. he scale selected in the present study included 10 points, where one side of the scale was given 0, and the other end was given 10. The question about the concept of religiosity was asked as follows (a sample Of the survey can be found in the Appen- dix): Please, put an (X) mark on the following measure of religi- osity in terms Of fundamentalism and religious services pro- vided for each country on the scale from zero (0) as the lowest religious degree and (1 ) as the highest religious degree. For example: VERY LOW VERY HIGH RELIGIOSITY MEDIUM RELIGIOSITY UNITED STATES O 1 2 X 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Analysis Of Data The nature of the present study necessitated the use of descriptive as well as inferential statistics. Measures Of central tendency of distribution and measures Of variation (range, variance, and standard deviation) were used to analyze the data. Other tech- niques were multiple regression analysis, F-test (analysis Of variance), t-test, and simple correlation. . Multiple regression served the hypotheses of the causal model where the importance Of all variables in explaining infant mortality was shown and the strength of each variable controlling for other variables was computed. 83 The path model was usediin analyzing the interrelationships between the dependent and the independent variables where the path coefficients permit the calculation of indirect causal effects. Through the multiplication Of path values Of compound paths connect- ing variables via intervening variables, it is possible to compare induced causal effects with direct causal effects. The path-analysis model well served the purpose of the study since it was possible to determine, for example, how much Of the Observed correlation between infant mortality and GNP per capita on the one hand, and between infant mortality and population density on the other, is due to a direct, or indirect, or unexplained effect through the hypothesized causal processes. The analysis Of variance tested the hypothesis that the group means of the dependent variable were equal. This technique was selected because the dependent variables were interval and the independent variable nations was categorical. The F-value was Obtained by dividing the Mean Square Between (MSB) by Mean Square Within (MSW). The F-statistics and level of significance (with degrees of freedom) determined the rejection or acceptance Of the hypothesis. T-test is a technique used to compare two sample means Of continuous variables and to test for significance Of difference. Using a two-tailed test, with alpha .05 (divided by 2 in this case), the alternative hypothesis states simply inequality Of the means. The rejection of a hypothesis falls within both tails of the 84 sampling distribution rather than one side Of the sampling distribu- tion. If the t-score was lower than -1.96 or higher than +1.96, the hypothesis was rejected; otherwise it was accepted. Differences significant beyond the .05 level were accepted. Correlation matrices for the variables used in each year, as well as the variables included in the causal model, were con- structed to compute the standardized correlation coefficients. Findings of the study were compared in each area, and hypothesis testing was discussed and reported. For this purpose, the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS-PC and SPSS-X) through the main-frame computer at the Computer Center at Michigan State University was used for the statistical computations. 5ummary This chapter contained a discussion of the data set Of nation- states and the comparative analysis model.. Instruments Of measure- ment and methods used in analyzing the data were explained. CHAPTER VI ANALYSIS OF DATA This chapter contains a discussion of the data analyses conducted for this study. Data regarding the social indicators and domains are presented in the first section. Next, a discussion of the path model and the multiple regression analysis is presented. The third section contains the results Of the analyses Of variance that were performed to test the study hypotheses. Date Reqerdinq Social Indieatpre end Aepecte of Change Soeial Ingieetors Of Change As explained in Chapter III, nine core indicators in five aspects representing areas of social change were included in this study. Table 6.1 shows the mean and standard deviation for each core indicator for 1975 and 1985. Tables 6.2 and 6.3 show the correlations between core indicators for 1975 and 1985, respectively. In a quick look at Table 6.1. it can be Observed that the highest means for both time periods were percentages Of men in the industrial sector. The mean scores were 58.85 and 63.21 in 1975 and 1985, respectively. The second highest mean in 1975 was female enrollment in education, and in 1985 was access to electricity. The lowest mean scores in both time periods were adult 85 86 literacy (27.05 and 35.47) in 1975 and 1985, respectively. The second lowest mean Observed was citizen participation, where the score for 1975 was 36.86 and for 1985 it was 39.11. Table 6.l.--Means and standard deviations of the nine core indi- cators of social change (N - 36).* 1975 1985 Variable Mean SD Mean SD % % Death rate . 54.08 14.65 49.44 15.69 Access to water 41.00 19.57 49.25 20.20 Infant mortality 48.72 27.96 43.00 30.56 Access to electricity 54.84 24.36 61.48 22.73 Men in industrial sector 58.85 21.64 63.21 21.16 Women in labor force 47.00 27.74 51.94 29.36 Adult literacy 27.05 21.68 35.47 25.48 Female enrollment 57.56 16.75 59.63 15.93 Citizen participation 36.86 19.63 39.11 17.46 *Death rate, infant mortality, and female enrollment were trans- formed into percentages. Other indicators were the actual percent- ages. (Discussion Of this issue can be found under instrumentation and measurement in the previous chapter.) The correlation matrices (Tables 6.2 and 6.3) show the highest correlations. between adult literacy and citizen participation in 1975 (r . .88) and between death rate and citizen participation in 1985 (r - .79). However, the correlation between adult literacy and citizen participation in 1985 remained relatively high (r = .65) but not the highest correlation. 87 mega; Lonap :. cosoz swam: o» ammoo< mums gamma moacmu_— upsu< Anomaum My acoEF—ccco m—~Eou xa_pmaeos acmwc_ »u_o_euoopm ca ammoo< :o_u~a_o_ucma =m~wu_u couoom —~_Lum:u:_ :_ cm: ll @NQO‘ II N r—vam ”aux coamu_u=_ .Poo. v a... .8. v 9:. .8. v a. oc.— «emsv.u eemmv.t enmm.- nm®m.- e—~m.- anemmw.u eeeue.- «cam—0.- m oco.— k—pv. ear—we. o—~.- wvu. eee~mm.- e—mm. «semen. m ooc.~ sense. «Pa~.- new. ae-¢.- «enema. eeemmm. s coo.p «ammv. m—p. enkhom.1 «men. nemom. m coo.p mom. ¢m—.I ¢p~.- mmo. m coo.p aomw. cow. «mow. e coc.p ewmm.u anaemm.- m ooo.— enmmv. 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Thee—mm.- m coo.p heesmm. ~ coo.p p a m s o m e m N — Lon—MU Lauaumccm Iva:— .mmm_ .mccaaupu:_ deco ago we x_gaas copuapmsccu--.m.o opaap 89 1 Ch n The five domains or aspects Of social change (health, housing, education, labor force composition, and citizen participa- tion in the decision-making process) comprised the variables for this study. Table 6.4 shows the mean, standard deviation, and mini- mum and maximum scores for each of these variables for both 1975 and 1985. fleelth. The maximum scores for health were 97.5 in 1975 and 98.0 in 1985. The minimum scores were 20.5 in 1975 and 24.0 in 1985. The mean score for 1985 was 46.22 (SD - 21.42), compared with a mean score of 51.40 (SD . 19.59) for 1985. As mentioned earlier, the health subindex comprised two indicators, infant mortality and death rate. Degejpg. The mean score for housing was 43.76 (SD . 14.37) in 1975, whereas in 1985 the mean score was 49.85 (SD - 15.94). The maximum scores Observed for housing were 73.6 and 85.0 for 1975 and 1985, respectively, compared with minimum scores Of 21.0 and 25.0 for the same years. u i n. In 1975 the mean score for education was 42.31 (SD - 16.68), whereas in 1985 the mean score was 47.55 (SD = 18.47). The range was between maximum scores Of 87.1 and 88.3 and minimum scores Of 17.8 and 18.8 for 1975 and 1985, respectively. 90 Table 6.4.--Measures Of central tendency and dispersion on the standardized indexes Of social change by year and subindex (N - 36). Measures Variable of Central Measures of Dispersion Tendency Mean SD Minimum Maximum Range Health 1975 51.40 19.59 24.00 98.00 74.00 1985 46.22 21.42 20.50 97.50 77.00 Housing 1975 43.76 14.37 21.00 73.66 52.66 1985 49.85 15.94 25.00 85.00 60.00 Education 1975 42.31 16.68 17.83 87.16 69.33 1985 47.55 18.47 18.83 88.33 69.50 Labor Force Comp. 1975 53.43 12.73 26.50 78.00 51.50 1985 58.61 13.88 25.50 79.50 54.00 Citizen Partic. 1975 36.86 19.63 14.00 87.00 73.00 1985 39.11 17.46 17.00 77.00 60.00 Ler: forge epmpoeition. An increase was Observed in this domain when comparing the means Of the two years. The mean in 1975 was 53.43 (SD . 12.73) compared with a mean Of 58.61 (SD . 13.88) in 1985. The maximum scores were 78.0 and 79.5 in 1975 and 1985, respectively, and the minimum scores were 26.5 and 25.5 in those same years. Citizen participetion. Of all the variables, citizen participa- tion evidenced the least change in scores in the Muslim countries in 91 the sample. In 1975, the maximum citizen participation was 87.0 and the minimum was 14.0, compared with a maximum of 77.0 and a minimum of 17.0 in 1985. In 1975, the mean for citizen participation was 36.86 (SD - 19.63), whereas in 1985 the mean was 39.11 (SD - 17.46). Findings about citizen participation suggest that more accurate data are required. The United Nations data are questioned because they did not reflect the facts Observed in many of the countries under study. Up to this point, we have provided measures of central tendency and degree of dispersion to indicate what the general pattern in the data was. As seen in Table 6.4, the mean patterns did not exceed 60% in any social aspect of change. The means remained in the middle third of the 100-point scale. Such findings, however, did not demolish the deviations of some nations from that measure, espe- cially the Oil-producing countries. The Path Anelyeie This method of testing the path model Of infant mortality was originally selected by default, as the traditional technique of path analysis and other multivariate techniques created tOO many impossible requirements on the data and the model. The more rigorous multivariate techniques of analysis (especially the nonrecursive path analysis) generally require inter- val data, the presence of reciprocal relationships or feedback loops, the inclusion of relevant variables, large samples, and the correct causal ordering before analysis (Hiese, 1968, 1969). None 92 of these assumptions need to be met with the technique used here. As a result of its simplicity and flexibility, its results cannot be interpreted as precisely or finally as those other techniques, but as an initial, exploratory device it is an appropriate method Of analysis. The main advantage of this method, however, lies in its ability to use a variety Of data, its Openness to inspection and alteration at all stages of analysis, and fundamentally its intrinsic simplic- ity. The flexibility of this method is reflected in its ability to use any number Of measures Of association as well as any type Of data. As a result, this method can be used as a method of proof and by the frequently combined practice Of testing an original hypothe- sis while looking for alternate hypotheses. It can also be used as an exploratory method if the components were known but the order of components was not. The disadvantage of this method is that it is crude and does not permit precise generalizations or relationships between the model components. This crudeness is primarily a result Of the dif- ficulty Of control for multiple effects. The lack of control may mean that one or more variables exercise undue influence on vari- ables far removed from them in theory. However, it is frequently Of great concern to inspect these relationships, reflecting such a strong relationship in reality, before they are controlled. 0n the basis Of the theoretical considerations presented earlier and the' measures Of ‘the various variables, we can now proceed with the specific hypotheses and causal interpretation Of 93 the effect Of the independent variables on infant mortality, the dependent variable. TO begin with, the mean scores, standard deviations, and skew- ness for the 1975 and 1985 time periods are shown in Table 6.5. Table 6.5.--Summary measures Of independent and dependent vari- ables used in the multiple regression analysis (N - 36). 1975 1985 Independent Variables Mean SD Skew- Mean SD Skew ness ness Access to water ' 41.00 19.57 .845 49.25 20.20 .818 Women in labor force 47.00 27.74 .133 51.94 29.36 -.007 Adult literacy 27.05 21.68 .990 35.47 25.48 .446 Population density 67.83 132.93 3.254 118.00 198.20 2.223 GNP per capita* 243.25 599.91 3.307 399.28 1094.19 4.445 Dependent Variable Infant mortality 44.77 30.02 .313 48.72 27.96 .299 *The actual value for GNP per capita should be multiplied by 10. The separate effect Of five independent variables on the depend- ent variable is explained according to the following propositions (Table 6.6): Proposition 1: Infant mortality will be negatively associated with the independent variables. 94 Proposition 2: Access to piped water will ciated with GNP per capita and population density. be positively asso- Proposition 3: Adult literacy will be positively associated with GNP per capita and population density. Proposition 4: Women’s participation in the labor force is associated negatively with the GNP per capita. Proposition 5: Women’s participation will ciated with adult literacy and population density. be positively asso- Table 6.6.--Expected and actual relationship signs in the path- model variables. Expected Sign Actual Sign Infant mortality with: H1. Access to piped water H2. Women in labor force H3. Adult literacy H4. Population density H5. GNP per capita Access to piped water with: H6. GNP per capita H7. Population density Women in the labor force with: H8. Adult literacy H9. Population density H10. GNP per capita Adult literacy with: H11. Population density H12. GNP per capita 95 On the basis Of the above propositions regarding the separate effect, Of' each independent variable, we derived a causal model connecting all the independent variables with the dependent variable (Figure 6.1). We assumed that GNP per capita and population density are contextual variables representing the degree of modernization (urbanization, social mobility, industrialization, etc.). Thus, in the causal model, they were considered as exogenous variables. Both of them were expected to affect adult literacy and women’s partici- pation in the labor force, which in turn affected infant mortality. (+) I ADUET"I _ LITERACY I (+) |_ l H H ____ (+) GNP | \l | H ___Y/ _ IPER CAPITA I ’1 WATER I .J INFANT I I I L_______| ’lMORTALITY I A I l (+) H _Yv l (+) H H ’5 WLABOR I (+) I L___I_POPULATION I I I DENSITY I Figure 6.1.--Expected signs of the causal model of infant mortality (N a 36). 96 Before explaining the results of the path analysis, we examine the six propositions briefly on the basis Of the zero-order correlation matrix shown in Table 6.7. GNP per capita, population density, adult literacy, women’s participation in the labor force, and access to piped water were negatively correlated with infant mortality (access to piped water and GNP per capita at .01 and adult literacy at .001 Significance level). However, population density and women’s participation in the labor force were negatively associ- ated with infant mortality but not at a statistically significant level (proposition 1). Access to piped water was positively corre- lated with GNP per capita and population density (proposition 2). Adult literacy was found to have a positive association with GNP per capita and population density (proposition 3). Women’s participa- tion in the labor force was negatively associated with GNP per capita (proposition 4). Thus propositions 1 through 4 were generally supported, and proposition 5 was not. hi fact, women’s participation in the labor force was negatively associated with adult literacy and population density, in opposition to the hypothe- sized relationships (proposition 5). 97 Table 6.7.--Zero-order correlations among the variables used in the model. 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 1.00 -.345** -.l6l -.612*** -.030 -.380** 2 1.000 .235 .122 .113 .271* 3 1.000 -.192 -.101 -.246 4 1.000 .255 .374** 5 1.000 .016 6 1.000 Note: Average scores were used in these correlations. *p < .05. **p < .01. ***p < .001. V ri l K 1. Infant mortality 4. Adult literacy 2. Access tO piped water 5. Population density 3. Women in the labor force 6. GNP per capita In more detail, as it was expected, adult literacy was a func- tion Of GNP per capita and population density with path coeffi- cients Of .398 and .261 respectively, with R2 -.223. It was apparent that adult literacy was much more influenced by GNP per capita than by population density. Women’s participation in the labor force was a fUnction of GNP per capita, population density, and adult literacy, with path coefficients Of -.213, -.071, and -.133, with R2 Q .093. In the case of access tO piped water as a function Of GNP per capita and population density, the path coeffi- cients were .336 and .089, with R2 =.l63. Finally, as was expected, 98 infant mortality was a function Of the five independent variables, with path coefficients as follows: access tO piped water -.277, women’s participation in the labor force -.122, adult literacy - .597, GNP per capita .028, and population density -.162, with R2 . .50. As for the entire causal model, however, the amount of vari- ance explained in infant mortality was moderately high at 50%, which was significant at the .01 level, and path coefficients fairly moderate (Table 6.8 and Figure 6.2). Table 6.8.--Summary of multiple regression of independent vari- able(s) on dependent variable(s). Dependent Variables Independent Infant Water Women Variables Mortality Access Labor Literacy Beta Beta Beta Beta Eq. 1 Eq. 2 Eq. 3 Eq. 4 Access to piped water -.277* Women in labor force -.122* Adult literacy -.597*** -.l33* GNP per capita .028 .336** -.213* .398** Population density .162* .089 -.071 .261* Multiple R .70755 .40470 .30808 .47306 R2 .50063 .16378 .09391 .22378 *p < .05. **p < .01. ***p < .001. 99 The betas in Table 6.9 represent the direct effect of each independent variable on the dependent variable (infant mortality). The correlation represents a measure Of association between the independent variables and infant mortality as the dependent variable. Partial correlations represent correlation between each independent variable and infant mortality after controlling for all other variables. Table 6.9.--Direct (beta coefficients), correlations, and partial correlations Of the path-model variables (N - 36). Beta Correlation Partial Corr. r12 -.277 -.345 -.254 r13 -.122 -.l61 -.lll r14 -.597 -.612 -.521 r15 -.162 -.O3O -.155 r15 -.028 -.380 -.024 n ' r ke : 1. Infant mortality 4. Adult literacy 2. Access to piped water 5. Population density 3. Women in the labor force 6. GNP per capita It was assumed that the final paths among the variables in Figure 6.2 were causal, additive, and recursive. It was also assumed that omitting the relationships between adult literacy and access to piped water, and between women’s participation in the labor force and access to piped water, did not bias the results. 100 I .261 __ ______ I -.630 I I_______ ADULT I I - 103 I LITERACY I /-.521/ .398 I____ I -.597 /-.024/ -.028* _ _ _ .336 \I—I I/_-.3os/I/ GNP I - 254 |.\/ \I/_ IPER CAPITA I ’1 WATER I INFANT I 2 I - ‘ I I I“?T§77‘T>INORTALITY I-- R . .50 A I I -.133 .089* I -.187| <" -.213 ___l, /-.111/ I‘TTT§§'I ___>., I /- 155/ WLABOR I -.122 - .162 -.071 I ___I‘POPULATION I I DENSITY I * Not significant Figure 6.2.--Causa1 model Of infant mortality. (The unmarked coefficients represent estimated relationships. Coefficients /partial bracketed/ report partial (beta) correlation between each factor and infant mortality; holding constant. the other four variables. in the model. The complete bracketed coefficients indicate the estimated total causal effects Of each independent variable (direct and indirect effect.) According tO the results of the path analysis, it is essential to give the general findings from the regression analysis of the data used in the model. The following are the linear equations and information about their accuracy: 101 X1 = 11.65 - .27X2 - .122X3 - .59X4 - .16X5 - .028X6 (.146) (.146) (.152) (.140) (.157) R2 - .50 F (5,28) . 5.51 Where X1 - infant mortality, X2 - access to piped water, X3 a women’s participation in the labor force, X4 - adult literacy, X5 . population density, and X6 - GNP per capita. The numbers in paren- theses are standard errors of the regression coefficients. Thus, the five independent variables accounted for about 50% of the vari- ance in the infant mortality rate. The significant R2 value Obtained from the regression equation seems to suggest that the model is effective in explaining variations in the infant mortality rate. According to the literature on infant mortality, the findings should lead one to expect that all the statistically significant relationships among the antecedent variables and infant mortality would be negative. By checking the detailed results Of the path analysis, it was possible to ascertain to what extent the empirical data support the hypotheses concerning the causal structure of the model. Interpretation Of the Peth Analysis As the path diagram in Figure 6.2 indicates, the effects Of GNP per capita, population density, adult literacy, women’s participa- tion in the labor force, and access to piped water on infant mortal- ity are numerous and varied. With recursive models, a convenient, systematic way of sorting out these multiple influences is the 102 decomposition Of bivariate correlations between variables (Duncan, 1966; Stokes, 1971) and then multiplying the new equation through by the variable Of interest” As a result Of ‘these computations, direct, indirect, and total effects can be made. We assumed that the Observed variables in the model (X1, X2, X3, X4, X5, and X6) are measured on interval scales without errorsand that the random disturbances (Xu, Xw, Xv, and Xy) are mutually uncorrelated to each other as well as to other Observed variables (these terms do not appear in the figure). Without loss of generality, we assume all variables are normalized with a mean Of zero and a standard deviation Of unity. Th ir effect . The DE Of one variable on another is simply that part of its total effect that is not transmitted via intervening variables. In the model, we are interested in the five direct effects of the independent variables on infant mortality. The direct effects are one-way arrows coming from the independent variable to the dependent variable. In other words, the direct effect is the effect that remains when intervening variables have been held constant. h in i ec f e t . The IE are those parts of a vari- able’s total effect that are transmitted or mediated by variables specified as intervening between the cause and effect Of interest in a model. The intervening variables in Figure 6.2 are access to piped water, women’s participation in the labor force, and adult literacy. 103 The tptal effeet (lE). The TE Of a variable was computed by adding the direct and indirect effects. As Figure 6.2. and Table 6.10. show, the highest total effect on infant mortality was for adult literacy (TE - -.630), followed by access to piped water (TE - -.305). The least total effect, how- ever, was for GNP per capita (TE - -.103), followed by women’s participation in the labor force (TE - -.l87). These findings, however, are commensurate with the literature findings concerning education in general and adult literacy in particular as an effec- tive variable in the process of change and modernization (Inkeles, 1973). Table 6.10.--Estimated direct, indirect, and total effects Of the independent variables on infant mortality (N - 36).* Estimated Direct Indirect Total Correlation Effect Effect Effect A r12 - .277 - .028 - .305 A r13 - .122 - .055 - .187 A r14 - .597 - .033 - .530 A r15 - .152 - .031 - .193 A r16 - .028 - .075 - .103 *The computations were made according to the general form Of the basic theorem Of path analysis r-j . kpi- . rjk’ where i and j denote two variables in the system and the index k includes all variables from which paths lead directoy to Xi (Duncan, 1966, pp. 5-6; Land, 1969, pp. 26-27). 104 Reeults Of 50eiel Dhenge Between 1555 and 1575 It was hypothesized that no change had occurred among Muslim nations in the various indicators used in the study between 1975 and 1985. That is, the means for 1985 are equal to those for 1975. In principle, the decision to reject or not reject a null hypothesis about a population mean is based on the difference between the sample mean and the hypothesized value of the population mean. If the difference is below the criterion established for significance, the researcher fails to reject the hypothesized value Of the popula- tion mean contained in the hypothesis. If the difference exceeds that criterion, the researcher rejects the null hypothesis. For the purpose Of testing the 13 hypotheses, a t-test was used. The t-test is a technique to compare two sample means under two assumptions: (a) the sample is drawn from a normally distributed population, and (b) the sample is small. Hypotheses according to the t-test may be formulated in the null hypothesis form of equal means or in the alternate form of unequal means. In the present study, this set Of hypotheses was formulated in the null form of equal means. A two-tailed test requires that the rejection Of the hypothesis fall within both tails Of the curve rather than on one side Of the curve. Under the two- tailed test, half Of alpha (.05) lies on each side of the curve. In this case, the alpha value will be .025 with a positive or negative Sign, accordingly. In contrast, the Z-value will be divided into two halves, each equal plus or minus 1.96. If the test was greater than 1.96 or lower than -1.96, the null hypothesis would be 105 rejected. Of the 13 hypotheses regarding aspects and indicators of social change, according to the rules of the t-test, ll null hypoth- eses were rejected at the .05 alpha level, and two null hypotheses were not rejected. Therefore, social change had occurred in all the indicators tested except in female enrollment (p <.061) and politi- cal participation (p < .220) (see Table 6.11). Table 6.11.--T-test values, degrees Of freedom, and 2-tailed proba- bility for the change indicators. 2-Tailed Variable T-Value df Probability H1. Health - 5.24 35 0.000 H1.1. Death rate - 5.49 35 0.000 Hl.2. Infant mortality - 2.68 35 0.011 H2. Education - 2.59 35 0.014 H2.1 Female enrollment - 1.93 35 0.061 H2.2. Adult literacy - 2.12 35 0.041 H3. Housing -10.03 35 0.000 H3.]. Access to piped water -10.11 35 0.000 H3.2. Access to energy - 2.28 35 0.029 H4. Labor force composition - 6.30 35 0.000 H4.]. Women in labor force - 4.40 35 0.000 H4.2. Men in industrial sector - 5.03 35 0.000 H5. Citizen Participation - 1.25 35 0.220 Re§u1ts of the Anelysis Of Variance Analysis Of variance (ANOVA) is a statistical technique to compare more than two means. The selection of this technique 106 depends on the data under study where variability in the sample means was Observed in each variable. One can use the ANOVA tech- nique to determine whether there is reason to believe the population means are unequal by comparing the within-group and between-groups estimates of variability. In such a comparison, one can decide to reject or not reject a null hypothesis. Twenty-four null hypotheses were formulated and tested for mean differences between groups. Variables of geographic location, ethnicity, political type, and Oil production were selected for testing against the six variables used in the path analysis (infant mortality, access to piped water, women’s participation in the labor force, literacy, population density, and GNP per capita). Tables 6.12, 6.13, 6.14, and 6.15 show the analysis Of variance, F-distribution, and level Of significance in these areas. The find- ings in each area are explained in the following paragraphs. Gepgraphie chatipn De I: There is no significant difference between Asian and African Muslin: countries in terms of infaht mortality rate, access to piped water, women in the labor force, literacy, population density, and GNP per capita. NO significant differences were found between Asian and African Muslim countries in terms of infant mortality, access to piped water, population density, and GNP per capita. The null hypotheses concerning these areas were not rejected beyond the .05 probability level. However, significant differences were found between the two 107 groups in terms Of women in the labor force and adult literacy, where the null hypotheses in these cases were rejected. Ethnicjastgmm llp 2: There is no significant difference between Arab and non-Arab Muslim countries in terms of infant mortality, access to piped water, women in the labor force, literacy, population density, and GNP per capita. Arab countries were not found to be different in access to piped water, adult literacy, and population density from non-Arab Muslim countries. The null hypotheses were not rejected beyond the .05 probability level. However, the null hypotheses concerning the two groups Of countries in terms Of infant mortality rates, women’s participation in the labor force, and GNP per capita were rejected. Politieel Type Hg 3: There is no significant difference between republican and nonrepublican Muslim countries in terms Of infant mortal- ity, access to piped water, women in the labor force, literacy, population density, and GNP per capita. NO significant differences were found between republican and nonrepublican countries in terms of women in the labor force and population density, where the null hypotheses were not rejected beyond the .05 probability level. However, differences were found between the two groups with regard to infant mortality rate, access to piped water, adult literacy, and GNP per capita since the null hypotheses were rejected beyond the .05 probability level. 108 Table 6.12.--Analysis Of variance of geographic location and infant mortality, access to piped water, women in the labor force, population density, and GNP per capita. Variable SS MS DF F. Sig. Geographic location Infant mortality Between groups 2844.00 2844.00 1 3.729 .061 Within groups 25930.74 762.68 34 Total 28774.74 Geographic location Access to piped water Between groups 46.28 46.28 1 112 .735 Within groups 13595.40 399.86 34 Total 13641.68 Geographic location Women in labor force Between groups 9255.73 9255.73 1 16.648 0003 Within groups 18902.23 555.94 34 Total 28157.96 Geographic location Adult literacy Between groups 2963.93 2963.93 1 8.631 .005 Within groups 11674.80 343.37 34 Total 14638 73 Geographic location Population density Between groups 12484.62 12484.62 1 .629 .433 Within groups 634524.53 19828.89 * 34 Total 647009.15 Geographic location GNP per capita Between groups 219001.55 219001.53 1 1.669 .205 Within groups 4458864.21 131143.06 34 Total 4677865.76 109 Table 6.l3.--Analysis of variance of ethnic background and infant mortality, piped water, women in the labor force, population density, and GNP per capita. Variable SS MS DF F. Sig. Ethnic background Infant mortality Between groups 3052.81 3052.81 1 4.050 .052 Within groups 25711.93 756.23 34 Total 28774.74 Ethnic background Access to piped water Between groups 253.82 253.82 1 .644 .427 Within groups 13387.85 393.76 34 Total 13641.67 Ethnic background Woman in labor force Between groups 7204.17 7204.17 1 11.68 .001 Within groups 20953.79 616.28 34 Total 28157.96 Ethnic background Adult literacy Between groups 947.60 947.60 1 2.353 .134 Within groups 13691.13 402.68 34 Total 14638.73 Ethnic background Population density Between groups 5489.69 5489.69 1 .273 .604 Within groups 641519.45 20047.48 34 Total 647009.14 Ethnic background GNP per capita Between groups 706942.66 706942.66 1 6.053 .019 Within groups 3970923.07 116791.85 34 Total 4677865.73 110 Table 6.l4.--Analysis of variance of political type and infant mortality, piped water, women in the labor force, population density, and GNP per capita. Variable 55 MS DF F. Sig. Political type Infant mortality Between groups 4929.80 4929.80 1 7.029 ' .012 Within groups 23844.95 701.32 34 Total 28774.75 Political type Access to piped water Between groups 1575.31 1575.31 1 4.438 .042 Within groups 12066.37 354.89 34 Total 13641.68 Political type Women in labor force Between groups 1993.33 1993.33 1 2.590 .116 Within groups 26164.63 769.54 34 Total 28157.96 Political type Adult literacy Between groups 1528.33 1528.33 1 3.963 .054 Within groups 13110.40 385.60 34 Total 14638.73 Political type Population density Between groups 20015.09 20015.09 1 1.021 .319 Within groups 626994.05 19593.56 34 Total 647009.14 Political type GNP per capita Between groups 881930.00 881930.00 1 7.899 .008 Within groups 3795935.74 111645.16 Total 4677865.74 111 Table 6.l5.--Analysis of variance of oil-producing nations and infant mortality, access to piped water, women in the labor force, population density, and GNP per capita. Variable SS HS DF F. Sig. Oil-producing nations Infant mortality Between groups 2244.50 2244.50 1 2.876 .099 Within groups 26530.25 780.30 34 Total 28774.75 Oil-producing nations Access to piped water Between groups 105.12 105.12 1 .264 .610 Within groups 13536.56 398.13 34 Total 13641.68 Oil-producing nations Women in labor force Between groups 1408.92 1408.92 1 1.790 .189 Within groups 26749.05 786.73 34 Total 28157.97 Oil-producing nations Adult literacy Between groups, 1334.72 1334.72 1 3.411 .073 Within groups 13304.02 391.29 34 Total 14638.74 Oil-producing nations Population density Between groups 9404.90 9404.90 1 .472 .497 Within groups 637604.15 19925.13 32 Total 647009.15 Oil-producing nations GNP per capita Between groups 1279866.67 1279866.67 1 12.806 .001 Within groups 3397999.07 99941.14 Total 4677865.74 112 0‘ -P 'n N flg_4: There is no significant difference between oil-producing and nonoil-producing Muslim nations in terms of infant mortal- ity rate, access to piped water, women in the labor force, literacy, population density, and GNP per capita. No differences were found between oil and nonoil-producing countries with regard to infant mortality rate, access to piped water, women in the labor force, adult literacy, and population density, where the null hypotheses were not rejected beyond the .05 probability level. The only significant difference was found between the two groups in GNP per capita, where the null hypothesis was rejected beyond the .05 probability level. BgJiqiositv and Mgdernigatjgn Assumptions For comparative purposes, nations were ranked in terms of their religiosity and fundamentalism. Table 6.16 shows nations’ rankings on religiosity compared with actual scores for certain indicators such as woman’s participation in the labor force, infant mortality, adult literacy, and GNP per capita. According to the modernization assumption, the more religious countries should score less on indicators of modernization and change, and the less religious countries should score more on the same indicators. Findings show that this assumption was completely true in two cases (Turkey, and Lebanon) and partially true in Tunisia, Syria, Niger, Libya, and Iraq in terms of infant mortality and adult literacy but not in woman’s participation in the labor 113 Table 6.16.--Selected actual social indicator scores compared with three levels of religiosity (N - 36). . Religi- . Women Infant Adult GNP Country osity in Labor Mortality Literacy Per Capita (Rank) (%) (per 1,000) (%) (USS) Most Religious Countries: AFGHANISTAN @ 1 19 205 12 230 SAUDI ARABIA 2 5 61* 21 18,344 IRAN 3 14 112 50* 2,180 PAKISTAN 0 4 11 116 21 350 BANGLADESH @ 5 10 124 26 119 MALAYSIA 6 31* 28* 68* 714 EGYPT 7 8 94 54* 686 INDONESIA 8 30* 97 65* 560 MAURITANIA @ 9 4 133 10 466 SUDAN @ 10 11 '113 20 370 MOROCCO @ 11 16 98 28 800 ALGERIA 12 4 82* 37 1.951 Middle Religious Countries: YEMEN NORTH 13 4 146 13 460 SOMALIA 14 29 153 60 450 SIERRA LEONE 15 34 176 15 320 MALI 16 47 176 10 190 SENEGAL 17 38 138 10 400 CHAD 18 24 139 15 73 CAMEROON 19 42 92 70 669 BENIN 20 44 116 11 310 KUWAIT 21 9 22 60 16,500 BURKINA FASO 22 46 146 10 180 JORDAN 23 6 50 70 1,060 UGANDA 24 33 110 45 240 Least Religious Countries: THE GAMBIA 25 44 193* 5* 330 IRAQ 26 5* 74 55 2,410 GABON 27 38 111* 14* 2,974 LIBYA 28 5* 91 50 1,150 GUINEA 29 40 176* 10* 293 YEMEN SOUTH 30 5* 146* 27* 310 NIGERIA 31 40 110* 25* 720 NIGER 32 10* 142 8* 340 SYRIA 33 12* 55 53 1,650 LEBANON @ 34 19 48 86 1,150 TUNISIA 35 9* 79 70 844 TURKEY @ 36 37 86 60 1,000 @ Countries are in congruity with modernization assumptions. * Scores for countries deviating from modernization assumptions concerning religiosity. 114 force. The assumption was completely untrue in the case of South Yemen, where all scores were in contradiction with the assumption. Conversely, the assumption was true for certain countries that are more religious and less modernized, such as Afghanistan, Pakistan, Mauritania, Sudan, and Morocco. However, deviation from the assumption among less modernized, more religious countries can be observed in Saudi Arabia and Algeria (infant mortality), and Iran and Egypt (adult literacy). In the case of Malaysia, the assumption was totally untrue in all the indicators, while it was partly untrue for Indonesia in women’s participation and adult literacy (Table 6.16). For analysis purposes, the countries were divided equally into three parts; 12 countries were considered high ("1 the religiosity measure and ranked from 1 to 12, the second part were considered medium in their religiosity and ranked from 13 to 24, and the third part included nations with low religiosity and ranked from 25 to 36. After ranking the nations in terms of their scores in the five aspects of social change, the following countries were ranked in the top ten. These are alphabetically arranged: Algeria, Lebanon, Libya, Jordan, Kuwait, Malaysia, Syria, Tunisia, and Turkey. The bottom ten countries, in almost all aspects of social change were (alphabetically arranged): Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Burkina Faso, Chad, the Gambia, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, North Yemen, and Sudan. These countries as well as many others were considered as among the least developed group according to the United Nations measures. (For more detail, see the Appendix.) 115 According to Table 6.17, countries ranking high in religiosity should rank high in social aspects (the countries rank from 1 to 12). Conversely, countries ranked low in religiosity should rank low in social aspects (countries ranked from 25 to 36). The middle group of nations, ranked from 13 to 24, were left out of the analy- sis. According to modernization assumptions, findings show that Afghanistan, Iran, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Mauritania, Sudan, and Morocco were in congruity with the first part of the assumption, whereas Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, Indonesia, Egypt, and Algeria deviated from that assumption in almost all social aspects. Turkey, Tunisia, Lebanon, Syria, and Libya were in congruity with the second part of the assumption, whereas countries of the Gambia, South Yemen, Gabon, Iraq, Guinea, Niger, and Nigeria deviated from that assumption. Furthermore, countries such as Cameroon, Kuwait, and Jordan, ranking 19, 21, and 23, respectively, ranked low in educa— tion, health, housing, and political participation. Cameroon ranked 6 in labor force composition, whereas Kuwait and Jordan ranked 16 and 21, respectively, on the same variable. 116 Table 6.17.--Ranking of social aspects compared with religiosity in in the Muslim nations (N - 36). Religi- Educa- Labor Partici- Country osity tion Health Housing Force pation Most Religious Countries: AFGHANISTAN @ l 34 35 31 31 32 SAUDI ARABIA 2 19 8* 12* 24 18 IRAN 0 3 15 20 24 30 8* PAKISTAN @ 4 24 12* 9* 28 15 BANGLADESH @ 5 26 27 35 36 17 MALAYSIA 6 2* 2* 4* 4* 11* EGYPT 7 20 11* 15 5* 20 INDONESIA 8 3* 14 13 8* 9* MAURITANIA 0 9 23 31 28 35 27 SUDAN @ 10 35 28 20 16 27 MOROCCO @ 11 21 14 6* 21 14 ALGERIA 12 14 9* 22 2* 12* Middle Religious Countries: YEMEN NORTH 13 36 25 28 34 31 SOMALIA 14 12 26 36 26 16 SIERRA LEONE 15 26 30 24 10 20 MALI 16 29 14 32 19 35 SENEGAL 17 21 17 11 14 25 CHAD 18 33 23 33 32 26 CAMEROON 19 9 13 21 f 6 24 BENIN 20 32 19 12 14 23 KUWAIT 21 1 3 3 16 4 BURKINA FASO 22 31 24 30 21 33 JORDAN 23 3 6 8 23 6 UGANDA 24 16 18 23 24 18 Least Religious Countries: GAMBIA, THE 25 30 32 18 11 36 IRAQ 26 4 29* 19* 26* 13 GABON 27 26* 34* 14 11 27* LIBYA 0 28 6 5 5 20 2 GUINEA 29 13 32* 26* l 27* YEMEN SOUTH @ 30 17 22 27* 28* 22* NIGERIA 31 18 25* 2 2 20 NIGER 32 25* 21 33* 33* 33* SYRIA 0 33 11 1 1 6 3 LEBANON @ 34 7 4 16 16 1 TUNISIA @ 35 5 7 10 9 6 TURKEY @ 36 8 10 7 13 5 @ Countries are in congruity with modernization assumptions. * Scores of social aspects for countries deviating from modern- ization assumptions concerning religiosity. 117 mmar This chapter contained the results of the data analyses. Included were data regarding change of social aspects, data on the path analysis, the analysis of variance, and religiosity and social change. The study findings were also reported and discussed. CHAPTER VII SUMMARY, CONCLUSIONS, AND RECOMMENDATIONS This chapter contains a summary of the study and the major findings, conclusions regarding the study hypotheses and findings, and recommendations for further research. Summar The main purpose of the present research was to study aspects of social change in the education, health, housing, labor force composition, and political participation among Muslim nations at two times, 1975 and 1985. A secondary purpose was to test relationships between infant mortality and certain socioeconomic determinants using path-analysis techniques. The question posed in this study was whether a significant social change was observable between the year 1985 when compared with the year 1975. To test the main hypothesis, scores of social change were computed, transformed, and calculated. A path analysis, an analysis of variance (ANOVA), multiple regression, and t-test were used to test the study hypotheses. Summary and Findings Social Change in 1985 Compared With 1975 As shown in the previous chapter, changes were found that were statistically significant in the areas of education, health,. 118 119 education, labor force composition, where the hypothesized relationships concerning these areas were rejected. In these areas, it was hypothesized that scores in- 1985 would be higher than the scores in 1975. However, two hypotheses concerning female enrollment and citizen participation were not rejected; findings on these variables showed that no significant changes had occurred in these areas. rmin nfan 't From the 13 hypotheses of the path model, 11 were found consistent with the hypothesized relationships. The two relationships between adult literacy and women’s participation in the labor force, and between population density and women’s participation in the labor force were found in opposition with the hypothesized positive relationships. Analysjs of Variance Twenty-four hypotheses were tested for mean differences between groups. The four areas selected for testing were geographic location, ethnicity, political type, and oil production against six variables used in the path analysis. These were infant mortality, access to piped water, women in the labor force, literacy, population density, and GNP per capita. The findings for each variable are presented in the following paragraphs. Geographi; lggatign. Findings showed that the hypotheses con- cerning differences between African and Asian countries in infant mortality, access to piped water, population density, and GNP per 120 capita were not rejected. However, differences were found between the two groups in women’s participation in the labor force and adult literacy. £1hp1e_peekggpppg. The findings showed that significant dif- ferences were found between Arab and non-Arab Muslfin countries in access to piped water, adult literacy, and population density. No difference was found between the two ethnic groups in infant mortal- ity, women in the labor force, and GNP per capita. Ppljtieal type. The findings showed that no significant dif- ference was found between republican and nonrepublican countries in women in the labor force and population density. However, signifi- cant differences were found between the two groups in infant mortal- ity, access to piped water, adult literacy, and GNP per capita. Oil-prodgcing patione. The findings showed that there was no significant difference between the two groups of countries in women in the labor force, population density, infant mortality, access to piped water, and adult literacy. A significant difference was found between the two groups of nations only in GNP per capita. fundamentalism epd goeial ehange. The findings showed a devia- tion from modernization assumptions in some countries. The more religious countries had lower scores on indicators of social change, especially on women’s participation in the labor force, infant mor- tality, and adult literacy. However, the assumption was totally true in nine countries where they ranked high on the social aspects of education, health, labor force composition, housing, and politi- cal _participation. These countries are Afghanistan, Pakistan, 121 Bangladesh, Mauritania, Sudan, Morocco, and North Yemen as the more religious countries, and Turkey, Syria, Tunisia, and Lebanon as the least religious countries. Countries deviating from the modernization assumption were Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Egypt as the most religious nations, and Niger, Guinea, Gabon, Iraq, the Gambia, and Uganda as the least religious countries. C n ' n The study provided a recent assessment of change in social aspects of education, health, housing, labor force composition, and citizens’ participation, as well as infant mortality, in the Muslim countries. The researcher attempted to evaluate the importance of certain variables in explaining this demographic phenomenon. When explaining infant mortality, a dramatic decline, particularly in recent years, was noted. Five variables qualified for inclusion in the best-fitting regression model. Together these variables provided a joint explan- atory capacity of 50% of the total variation on infant mortality. The five variables were access to piped water, women’s participation in the labor force, adult literacy, GNP per capita, and population density. A major portion of the present research was focused on the study of social change. However, the hypotheses tested in the study enabled evaluation of certain contextual variables in the two time periods. The study results led to the conclusion that social change as well as its domains (health, education, housing, 122 labor force composition, and citizen participation) of the member- states of the Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC) were significantly observed, except in the areas of citizen participa- tion and female enrollment in schools. Implications can be drawn from this research, then, as to which social aspects had changed and which had not and in which nations such changes had occurred and in which they had not. The differ— ences in the variables’ means had changed from 1975 to 1985 as follows: 6.09 in housing, 5.24 in education, 5.18 in health as well as in labor force composition, and, finally, 2.25 in citizens’ participation. From the results here, it is difficult to recommend promoting one aspect over another, because these aspects are interrelated and interdependent. But for certain nations, it would be desirable to give one aspect more attention than other aspects, even though one aspect is not alone sufficient to stimulate change in a society. Nigeria, for example, has 40% of women participating in the labor force, with 25% adult literacy and 110 per 1,000 infant mortality rate. Another country, say, Iraq, has 5% of women participating in the labor force, with 55% adult literacy, and 74 per 1,000 infant mortality rate. If we compare the two countries in terms of adult literacy, we find Iraq to be more literate by 30% than Nigeria. In contrast, if we.compare the two countries in terms of the participa- tion of women in the labor force, we find Nigeria to have a 35% higher rate than Iraq. Our recommendation, therefore, would be that adult literacy should get more attention from the policy makers in 123 Nigeria than women’s participation in the labor force, whereas women’s participation in the labor force should get more attention in Iraq than adult literacy. In general, in the nations under study, national development had been made in general terms including almost all social and economic aspects according to each country’s capacity and resources. Universal indicators (adult literacy, for example), moreover, were promoted by international and United Nations agencies. The case of women’s participation in the labor force may have depended primarily on specific cultural or socioeconomic grounds, which vary consider- ably among nations in spite of the activities and actions taken by the United Nations agencies. Political participation was the only variable that remained comparatively low in almost all nations under study. Change in this variable was slight. It would clearly be» desirable, therefore, for the governments of these nations to give more attention to democracy and citizen participation. Programs to promote such participation are recommended and highly accepted by industrialized nations as a step toward easing social problems and leading society into a stable condition. Recommendations for Policy and Further Research The study recommendations may be divided into two categories: policy and research. 124 Poliey Reepmmendatipne The study can provide guidelines toward population policy, with particular emphasis on further reduction in infant mortality levels. The following policy recommendations are proposed for consideration: 1. Adult literacy was found to be the strongest path coeffi- cient leading to reduced infant mortality. It is recommended that policy makers, based on the findings, give more attention and sup- port to that variable in the countries involved, especially Afghani- stan, Pakistan, Sudan, North Yemen, Mali, Senegal, Benin, Burkano Faso, the Gambia, Guinea, and Niger. 2. Mortality differentials within the Muslim countries can be narrowed by providing better channels of access to piped water, education, and opportunities for women to participate in the labor force. 3. Although national mortality levels have been effectively reduced in the ten-year period, high mortality rates still persist in the lower-income and denser countries. Hence, population poli- cies should be translated to accommodate a large number of pe0ple and to be effective in these countries. 4. Socioeconomic improvement may be the key to promoting infant mortality decline; therefore, programs must be established to promote the socioeconomic levels of the population. 5. In the area of women’s participation in the labor force, it is recommended that countries of Algeria, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Mauritania, North Yemen, Jordan, Iraq, Libya, and South Yemen 125 increase programs to enhance women’s participation in the labor force. 6. The countries in which the subject of infant mortality needs the most serious attention are Afghanistan, the Gambia, Guinea, Sierra Leone, Mali, Somalia, and South Yemen. W 1. Attempts to create new measurements for the purpose of taking into account "human" interests and goals are recommended. While social change can be measured in terms of a theoretical framework, social scientists should be encouraged to relate the theory to its empirical context. 2. A comparative methodology should be developed to enhance scientific understanding of progress, especially in the social sector. 3. Large-scale cross-cultural and time-series studies should be encouraged. Such studies are likely to have more ability than small-scale comparative studies to assess change. It is recommended that international organizations support and sponsor such research, which supersedes individual and limited efforts. 4. A causal interpretation using the path-analysis technique could shed significant light on the theoretically perplexing ques- tions in the area of social change. Further improvement in this technique is much to be desired and recommended. The areas in which these techniques are urgently needed are infant mortality, death rate, women’s participation in the labor force, and opportunities open for citizen participation in a democratic society. 126 The present study, however, was a serious attempt to explore these areas and has made a vital contribution to the literature of scientific inquiry. APPENDICES APPENDIX A MUSLIM NATIONS INCLUDED IN THE STUDY, OIL AND NON-OIL PRODUCING MUSLIM NATIONS, AND RELIGIOSITY SURVEY 127 Table A.1.--Muslim nations included in the study.* Algeria Afghanistan Egypt Bangladesh Iraq Benin Jordan Burkina Faso Kuwait Cameroon Lebanon Chad Libya Gabon Mauritania Gambia Morocco Guinea Saudi Arabia Indonesia Somalia Iran Sudan Malaysia Syria Mali Tunisia Niger Yemen A.R. Nigeria Yemen P.D.R. Pakistan Senegal Sierra Leone Turkey Uganda *Nations not included in the study: Arab countries: Bahrain, Djibouti, Oman, PLO, Qatar, and United Arab Emirates, Non—Arab countries: Brunei, the Comoros, Maldives. Table A.2.--The Muslim nations and their dates of independence. 128 Date of Date of Country Independence Country Independence Algeria July 5, 1962 Afghanistan Nov. 19, 1946 Bahrain Aug. 14, 1971 Bangladesh Apr. 4, 1972 Djibouti June 27, 1977 Benin Aug. 1, 1960 Egypt Oct. 24, 1945 Brunei June 1, 1984 Iraq Mar. 22, 1946 Burkina Faso Aug. 5, 1960 Jordan Mar. 22, 1946 Cameroon Dec. 31, 1975 Kuwait June 19, 1961 Chad Aug. 11, 1960 Lebanon Nov. 22, 1943 Comorus Jan. 1, 1960 Libya Dec. 24, 1951 Gabon Aug. 17, 1960 Maldives July 26, 1965 The Gambia Sep. 21, 1965 Mauritania Nov. 28, 1960 Guinea Oct. 2, 1957 Morocco Mar. 2, 1956 Indonesia Dec. 28, 1949 Oman Oct. 7, 1971 Iran Oct. 24, 1945 Palestine* Nov. 15, 1988 Malaysia Aug. 31, 1957 Qatar Sep. 3, 1971 Mali Aug. 22, 1960 Saudi Arabia Oct. 24, 1945 Niger Aug. 3, 1960 Somalia July 1, 1960 Nigeria Oct. 1, 1960 Sudan Jan. 1, 1956 Pakistan Aug. 14, 1947 Syria Jan. 1, 1944 Senegal Aug. 20, 1960 Tunisia Mar. 20, 1956 Sierra Leone Apr. 27, 1961 U. A. E Dec. 2, 1971 Turkey Oct. 24, 1945 Yemen, A.R. Sep. 30, 1947 Uganda Oct. 9, 1962 Yemen, PDR Nov. 30, 1967 *Palestine independence was political rather than geographical. 129 Table A.3.--Oil and nonoil-producing Muslim nations.* - N (N-12) Algeria Egypt Gabon Indonesia Iran Iraq Kuwait Libya Nigeria Saudi Arabia Syria Tunisia 'l- r N ti (N-24) Afganistan Bangladesh Benin Burkina Faso Cameroon Chad Gambia Guinea Jordan Lebanon Malaysia Mali Mauritania Niger Morocco Pakistan Senegal Sierra Leone Somalia Sudan Turkey Uganda Yemen A.R. Yemen P.D.R. *Arab oil-producing countries not included in the analysis: Oman, Qatar, and United Arab Emirates, 130 Please, put an (X) mark on the following measure of religiosity in terms ot fundamentalism and religious services provided for each country on the scale from zero ( 0 ) as the lowest religious degree, and ( 10 ) as the highest religious degree. For example: VERY LOW VERY HIGH RELIGIOSITY MEDIUM RELIGIOSITY UNITED STATES VERY LOW VERY HIGH RELIGIOSITY MEDIUM RELIGIOSITY AFGHANISTAN O 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 ALGERIA O 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 BANGLADESH O 1 2 3 .4 5 6 7 8 9 10 BENIN .O 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 BURKINA FASO O 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 CAMEROON O 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 CHAD 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 EGYPT O 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 GABON O 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 ' 9 10 GAMBIA, THE 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 GUINEA O 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 INDONESIA O 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 IRAN O l 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 IRAQ O 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 JORDAN O 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 KUWAIT O 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 VERY LOW VERY HIGH RELIGIOSITY MEDIUM RELIGIOSITY LEBANON O 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1O LIBYA O 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 MALAYSIA O 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 MALI O 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 MAURITANIA O 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 MOROCCO O 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 NIGER O 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 NIGERIA O 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 PAKISTAN O l 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 SAUDI ARABIA O 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 SENEGAL O 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 SIERRA.LEONE D 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 SOMALIA O 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 SUDAN O 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 SYRIA O l 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 TUNISIA O 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 TURKEY O 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 UGANDA O 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 YEMEN. NORTH O 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 YEMEN, SOUTH O 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1O APPENDIX B TRANSFORMED SCORES AND CHANGE RATES OF THE SOCIAL ASPECTS OF CHANGE 131 Table B.l.--Transformed scores and change rate of the social aspects of change (N . 36). Educa- Employ- Political Country Health tion ment Housing Particip. AFGHANISTAN 1975 20.5 l8.3 39.0 29.0 l9.0 l985 24.0 23.2 42.5 32.3 2l.O Change (%) l7.7 26.4 9.0 ll.5 l0.5 ALGERIA l975 6l.5 45.8 76.5 39.7 42.0 l985 64.5 52.2 78.5 44.0 48.0 Change (%) 4.9 13.8 2.6 l0.9 l4.3 BANGLADESH l975 30.0 36.2 26.5 23.3 33.0 l985 34.5 34.8 25.5 27.7 36.0 Change (%) l5.0 - 3.7 - 3.8 l8.6 9.l BENIN l975 48.5 35.0 56.0 4l.7 23.0 1985 48.0 26.2 65.0 49.0 29.0 Change (%) - l.0 -25.3 l6.l l7.6 26.l BURKINA FASO l975 28.5 32.2 57.0 32.3 l7.0 l985 39.0 30.0 57.5 35.7 l9.0 Change (%) 36.8 - 6.7 .9 l0.3 ll.8 CAMEROON l975 5l.5 5l.0 60.5 39.3 28.0 l985 53.0 65.3 70.5 44.7 28.0 Change (%) 2.9 28.l l6.5 l3.6 0.0 CHAD l975 35.5 l7.9 42.5 22.3 20.0 l985 40.0 25.3 4l.5 29.0 24.0 Change (%) l2.7 42.l - 2.4 29.9 20.0 EGYPT l975 50.0 5l.0 68.0 38.3 76.0 l985 59.0 39.3 75.0 51.7 54.0 Change (%) l8.0 -22.8 l0.3 34.8 -28.9 GABON l975 22.0 40.7 70.0 47.0 2l.0 l985 26.0 34.8 67.5 52.3 23.0 Change (%) l8.2 -l4.3 - 3.6 ll.4 9.5 132 Table B.l.--Continued. Educa- Employ- Political Country Health tion ment Housing Particip. GAMBIA 1975 24.5 27.5 65.0 43.3 22.0 1985 29.0 31.0 67.5 48.3 17.0 Change (%) 18.4 12.7 3.9 11.5 -22.7 GUINEA 1975 23.5 28.7 78.0 34.0 20.0 1985 29.0 55.7 79.5 40.7 23.0 Change (%) 23.4 94.2 1.9 19.6 15.0 INDONESIA 1975 51.0 68.0 64.0 48 O 50.0 1985 52.5 60.8 70.0 54 3 55.0 Change (%) 2.9 -lO.5 9.4 13 2 10.0 IRAN 1975 60.5 62.0 35.0 34.0 87.0 1985 46.5 51.8 47.5 41.7 57.0 Change (%) -23.1 -16.4 35.7 22.6 -34.5 IRAQ 1975 33.0 40.0 48.0 43.3 46.0 1985 33.5 71.8 52.5 48.0 47.0 Change (%) 1.5 79.6 9.4 10.8 2.2 JORDAN 1975 74.5 65.0 53.0 52.7 48.0 1985 75.5 72.5 54.0 62.3 59.0 Change (%) 1.3 11.5 2.0 18.4 22.9 KUWAIT 1975 81.5 76.8 58.5 73.7 76.0 1985 86.5 88.3 63.0 80.3 77.0 Change (%) 6.1 15.0 7.7 9.0 LEBANON 1975 83.5 87.2 44.0 41 3 80.0 1985 86.0 67.7 63.0 49 3 63.0 Change (%) 3.0 -22.4 43.2 19 4 LIBYA 1975 74.5 51.8 53.5 66.0 42.0 1985 76.0 69.0 58.5 71.3 75.0 Change (%) 2.0 33.1 9.4 8.1 78.6 133 Table B.l.--Continued. Educa- Employ- Political Country Health tion ment Housing Particip. MALAYSIA 1975 82.5 67.0 67.5 68.7 59.0 1985 90.5 85.5 77.0 74.0 52.0 Change (%) 9.7 27.6 14.1 7.8 -ll.9 MALI ‘ 1975 42.5 26.5 49.5 28.0 15.0 1985 52.5 31.7 59.5 31.0 18.0 Change (%) 23.5 19.5 20.2 10.7 20.0 MAURITANIA 1975 28.0 26.2 35.5 33.7 15.0 1985 32.0 36.7 30.5 37.0 23.0 Change (%) 14.3 40.1 -14.1 9.9 53.3 MOROCCO 1975 46.5 41.0 51.0 61.3 40.0 1985 52.5 36.8 57.5 67.0 45.0 Change (%) 12.9 -lO.2 12.8 9.2 12.5 NIGER 1975 33.0 27.8 37.0 25.3 14.0 1985 43.5 35.8 39.0 29.0 19.0 Change (%) 31.8 28.7 5.4 14.5 35.7 NIGERIA 1975 27.5 47.8 70.0 60.3 25.0 1985 37.0 44.7 78.5 81.7 31.0 Change (%) 34.6 - 6.6 12.1 35.4 24.0 PAKISTAN 1975 56.0 34.2 43.5 56.0 37.0 1985 57.0 36.2 48.5 61.7 40.0 Change (%) 1.8 5.9 11.5 10.1 8.1 SAUDI ARABIA 1975 63.5 37.2 44.0 49.7 29.0 1985 66.0 41.0 53.0 55.3 35.0 Change (%) 3.9 10.3 20.5 11.4 20.7 SENEGAL 1975 51.0 33.5 61.5 56.3 22.0 1985 52.0 36.8 65.0 57.0 25.0 Change (%) 2.0 10.0 5.7 1.2 13.6 134 Table B.l.--Continued. Educa- Employ- Political Country Health tion . ment Housing Particip. SIERRA LEONE 1975 28.0 34.3 63.5 38.3 29.0 1985 33.0 34.8 68.0 41.7 31.0 Change (%) 17.9 1.5 7.1 8.7 6.9 SOMALIA 1975 32.0 25.8 43.0 21.0 19.0 1985 36.0 56.3 52.5 25.0 39.0 Change (%) 12.5 118.1 22.1 19.1 105.3 SUDAN 1975 27.5 38.5 50.0 45.3 37.0 1985 34.0 22.2 63.0 47.0 23.0 Change (%) 23.6 -42.4 26.0 3.7 ~37.8 SYRIA 1975 97.5 52.0 61.0 73.7 52.0 1985 98.0 59.8 70.5 85.0 64.0 Change (%) .5 15.1 15.6 15.4 23.1 TUNISIA 1975 69.0 49.0 64.5 51.7 44.0 1985 71.0 70.7 68.5 57.7 59.0 Change (%) 2.9 44.2 6.2 11.6 34.1 TURKEY 1975 59.5 58.2 59.5 56.0 54.0 1985 63.0 65.5 65.5 65.5 62.0 Change (%) 5.9 12.6 10.1 16.7 14.8 UGANDA 1975 44.0 38 O 47.0 39 O 32.0 1985 50.0 50 8 53.0 42 3 35.0 Change (%) 13.6 33 8 12.8 8 6 9.4 NORTH YEMEN 1975 35.5 18.8 36.0 30.7 27.0 1985 37.0 18.8 33.0 37.0 22.0 Change (%) 4.2 0.0 - 8.3 20.7 -l8.5 SOUTH YEMEN 1975 38.0 32.3 45.5 31.3 27.0 1985 43.0 48.0 48.5 37.3 30.0 Change (%) 13.2 48.5 9.0 19.2 11.1 APPENDIX C RANKING OF MUSLIM NATIONS IN THE HEALTH, HOUSING, EDUCATION, LABOR FORCE COMPOSITION, AND CITIZEN PARTICIPATION DOMAINS, 1975 AND 1985 135 Table C.1.--Ranking of Muslim nations on the social aspects of change, 1975 and 1985. 1285 Nation Rank Nation Rank T T n Lebanon 1 Kuwait 1 Kuwait 2 Syria 2 Malaysia 3 Malaysia 3 Syria 4 Libya 4 Iran 5 Lebanon 5 Jordan 6 Jordan 6 Egypt 7 Tunisia 7 Turkey 8 Turkey 8 Indonesia 9 Indonesia 9 Libya lO Algeria 10 The Middle Tunisia 11 Iran 11 Algeria 12 Egypt 12 Morocco- 13 Iraq 13 Cameroon l4 Morocco 14 Pakistan 15 Saudi Arabia 15 Saudi Arabia 16 Cameroon 16 Iraq 17 Pakistan 17 Nigeria 18 Nigeria 18 Senegal 19 Senegal 19 Uganda 20 Uganda 20 Benin 21 Benin 21 Sudan 22 Somalia 22 Sierra Leone 23 South Yemen 23 Gabon 24 Guinea 24 South Yemen 25 Sierra Leone 25 Bangladesh 26 Gabon 26 The Bottom Ten Guinea 27 Mali 27 Gambia 28 Gambia 28 Burkina Faso 29 Bangladesh 29 Mali 30 Sudan 30 North Yemen 31 Mauritania 31 Somalia 32 Burkina Faso 32 Niger 33 Niger 33 Chad 34 Chad 34 Mauritania 35 North Yemen 35 Afghanistan 36 Afghanistan 36 136 Table C.2.--Ranking of Muslim nations in the health domain, 1975 and l985. Nation Rank Nation Rank EM Syria 1 Syria 1 Lebanon 2 Malaysia 2 Malaysia 3 Kuwait 3 Kuwait 4 Lebanon 4 Jordan 5 Libya 5 Libya 5 Jordan 6 Tunisia 7 Tunisia 7 Saudi Arabia 8 Saudi Arabia 8 Algeria 9 Algeria 9 Iran 10 Turkey 10 The Middle Turkey 11 Egypt 11 Pakistan 12 Pakistan 12 Cameroon 13 Cameroon 13 Indonesia 14 Morocco 14 Senegal 14 Indonesia 14 Egypt 16 Mali l4 Benin 17 Senegal 17 Morocco l7 Uganda 18 Uganda 19 Benin 19 Mali 20 Iran 20 South Yemen 21 Niger 21 North Yemen 22 South Yemen 22 Chad 22 Chad 23 Iraq 24 Burkina Faso 24 Niger 24 North Yemen 25 Somalia 26 Nigeria 25 The Bottom Ten Bangladesh 27 Somalia 27 Burkina Faso 28 Bangladesh 28 Mauritania 29 Sudan 29 Sierra Leone 29 Iraq 30 Sudan 31 Sierra Leone 31 Nigeria 31 Mauritania 32 Gambia 33 Gambia 33 Guinea 34 Guinea 34 Gabon 35 Gabon 35 Afghanistan 36 Afghanistan 36 137 Table C.3.--Ranking of Muslim nations in the housing and nutrition domain, 1975 and 1985. Nation Rank Nation Rank [he [pp Ien Syria 1 Syria 1 Kuwait 1 Nigeria 2 Malaysia 3 Kuwait 3 Libya 4 Malaysia 4 Morocco 5 Libya 5 Nigeria 6 Morocco 6 Senegal 7 Turkey 7 Pakistan 8 Jordan 8 Turkey 8 Pakistan 9 Jordan 10 Tunisia 10 The Middle Tunisia 11 Senegal 11 Saudi Arabia 12 Saudi Arabia 12 Indonesia 13 Indonesia 13 Gabon 14 Gabon 14 Sudan 15 Egypt 15 Iraq 16 Lebanon 16 Gambia 16 Benin l7 Benin 18 Gambia 18 Lebanon 19 Iraq 19 Algeria 20 Sudan 20 Cameroon 21 Cameroon 21 Uganda 22 Algeria 22 Egypt 23 Uganda 23 Sierra Leone 23 Sierra Leone 24 Guinea 25 Iran 25 Iran 25 Guinea 26 The Bottom Ten Mauritania 27 South Yemen 27 Burkina Faso 28 Mauritania 28 South Yemen 29 North Yemen 28 North Yemen 3O Burkina Faso 30 Afghanistan 31 Afghanistan 31 Mali 32 Mali 32 Niger 33 Niger 33 Bangladesh 34 Chad 33 Chad 35 Bangladesh 35 Somalia 36 Somalia 36 138 Table C.4.--Ranking of Muslim nations in the education domain, l975 and 1985. 1.915 Nation Rank Nation Rank The Top Ten Lebanon 1 Kuwait 1 Kuwait 2 Malaysia 2 Indonesia 3 Jordan 3 Malaysia 4 Iraq 4 Jordan 5 Tunisia 5 Iran 6 Libya 6 Turkey 7 Lebanon 7 Syria 8 Turkey 8 Libya 9 Cameroon 9 Cameroon 10 Indonesia 10 We Egypt 10 Syria 11 Tunisia 12 Somalia 12 Nigeria 13 Guinea 13 Algeria 14 Algeria 14 Morocco 15 Iran 15 Gabon 16 Uganda 16 Iraq 17 South Yemen 17 Sudan 18 Nigeria 18 Uganda 19 Saudi Arabia 19 Saudi Arabia 20 Egypt 20 Bangladesh 21 Morocco 21 Benin 22 Senegal 21 Sierra Leone 23 Mauritania 23 Pakistan 24 Pakistan 24 Senegal 25 Niger 25 South Yemen 26 Bangladesh 26 The Bottom Ten Burkano Faso 27 Sierra Leone 26 Niger 28 Bangladesh 26 Guinea 29 Mali 29 Gambia 3O Gambia 3O Mali 31 Burkano Faso 31 Mauritania 32 Benin 32 Somalia 33 Chad 33 North Yemen 34 Afghanistan 34 Afghanistan 35 Sudan 35 Chad 36 North Yemen 36 139 Table C.5.--Ranking of Muslim nations in the employment domain, 1975 and 1985. 127.5 1.9.85 Nation Rank Nation Rank Mum Guinea 1 Guinea 1 Algeria 2 Algeria 2 Gabon 3 Nigeria 2 Nigeria 4 Malaysia 4 Egypt 5 Egypt 5 Malaysia 6 Cameroon 6 Gambia 7 Syria 6 Tunisia 8 Indonesia 8 Indonesia 9 Tunisia 9 Sierra Leone 10 Sierra Leone 10 The Middle Senegal 11 Gabon 11 Syria 12 Gambia 11 Cameroon 13 Turkey 13 Turkey 14 Benin 14 Kuwait 15 Senegal 14 Burkano Faso 16 Kuwait 16 Benin 17 Lebanon 16 Libya 18 Sudan 16 Jordan 19 Mali 19 Morocco 20 Libya 20 Sudan 21 Morocco 21 Mali 22 Burkano Faso 21 Iraq 23 Jordan 23 Uganda 24 Uganda 24 South Yemen 25 Saudi Arabia 24 Lebanon 26 Iraq 26 The Bottpm Ten Saudi Arabia 27 Somalia 26 Pakistan 28 Pakistan 28 Somalia 29 South Yemen 28 Chad 30 Iran 30 Afghanistan 31 Afghanistan 31 Niger 32 Chad 32 North Yemen 33 Niger 33 Mauritania 34 North Yemen 34 Iran 35 Mauritania 35 Bangladesh 36 Bangladesh 36 140 Table C.6.--Ranking of Muslim nations in the citizen-participation domain, 1975 and 1985. 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