CONSUMER INFORMATION PROCESSING DIFFERENCES IN RESPONSE TO FIRM PRICING: REMEMBERING VERSUS REASONING By Chang Seob Yeo A DISSERTATION Submitted to Michigan State University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Business Administration—Doctor of Philosophy 2014 ABSTRACT CONSUMER INFORMATION PROCESSING DIFFERENCES IN RESPONSE TO FIRM PRICING: REMEMBERING VERSUS REASONING By Chang Seob Yeo Previous literature has found evidence of firm’s motivation to encourage consumers’ stockpiling behavior as well as benefits occurred from stockpiling. Stockpiling in this dissertation refers to the propensity of consumers to increase their inventory level for future consumption of stock-up products which are nonperishable and in a unit size that consumers frequently purchase. A sales promotion (i.e., a price discount) is a fundamental condition for consumers’ stockpiling behavior. Four experiments of this dissertation intend to make contributions to literature of sales promotions, stockpiling, and price knowledge by answering (1) What types of price discounts trigger stockpiling behavior? and (2) Would types of discounts operate differently for different products (i.e., benefit changed products) and for different situations (i.e., an introduction of a new product under an established brand name or under new brand name)? as well as additionally investigating the direct effects depth and frequency of a discount on consumers’ price knowledge and perceived similarity with overall shopping experiences. Across all of four experiments, significant direct effects of discount depth and frequency on stockpiling; that interaction are found. Such main effects are moderated by benefit changes, new product introduction, and new brand introduction and also directionality among moderators vary. Lastly, evidence for proposed mediators which are price recall error, price comparison error, and consumers’ perceived similarity with overall shopping experiences is not found. Copyright by CHANG SEOB YEO 2014 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Without the support, patience, and guidance of many people, this dissertation would not have been completed First and foremost, I would like to express my sincerest gratitude to Dr. Roger J. Calantone, for his excellent guidance, unstinting support, and genuine concern. I would also like to thank my committee members, Dr. R. Dale Wilson, Dr. Thomas J. Page, Dr. Clay M. Voorhees, and Dr. Donald E. Conlon. Their academic support and encouragement are greatly appreciated. Also I would like to thank Praneet Randhawa and Hannah S. Lee who are my special friends. I could make it through all the challenges, thanks to them. My lovely wife, Sujeong Lee, and my sweet daughter, Claire S. Yeo, you all are my reasons for living and for walking forward. Thank you so much for your generous support and love. My father and mother, Tae Yeol Yeo and Youngsook Kim, words would not be enough to express my appreciation and love. Father, I believe you are watching all from heaven and really hope you could be here with me. I send my special appreciation and recognition to my parents. Also I thank my parents-in-law, Moonseok Lee and Jongsu Lee, for their patience as well as emotional support. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES ........................................................................................................................ vii LIST OF FIGURES ....................................................................................................................... ix INTRODUCTION ...........................................................................................................................1 CONCEPTUAL BACKGROUND ..................................................................................................5 Consumer Stockpiling Behavior ..................................................................................................5 Consumer Price Search Behavior ................................................................................................7 Price Cognition and Representation of Price Information ...........................................................8 The Feeling of Familiarity .........................................................................................................10 STUDY 1 .......................................................................................................................................13 Hypothesis Development ...........................................................................................................13 The Impact of Discount Depth .............................................................................................13 The Impact of Discount Frequency......................................................................................15 The Mediation Effects of PRE, PCE, and Perceived Familiarity ........................................17 Research Design.........................................................................................................................19 Manipulation and Product Category ....................................................................................19 Procedure of Shopping Tasks ...............................................................................................21 Measures ..............................................................................................................................22 Data Collection and Samples ...............................................................................................23 Means of Analysis ................................................................................................................24 Results ........................................................................................................................................24 Manipulation Checks ...........................................................................................................25 Assessment of the Measures ................................................................................................27 Assessment of the Main Effects ...........................................................................................29 Assessment of the Mediation Effects ...................................................................................31 Discussion ..................................................................................................................................32 STUDY 2 .......................................................................................................................................34 Research Design.........................................................................................................................34 Results ........................................................................................................................................35 Manipulation Checks ...........................................................................................................36 Assessment of the Measures ................................................................................................38 Assessment of the Main Effects ...........................................................................................39 Assessment of the Mediation Effects ...................................................................................44 Discussion ..................................................................................................................................46 STUDY 3 .......................................................................................................................................47 Research Design.........................................................................................................................47 Results ........................................................................................................................................48 v Manipulation Checks ...........................................................................................................48 Assessment of the Measures ................................................................................................48 Assessment of the Main Effects ...........................................................................................51 Assessment of the Mediation Effects ...................................................................................56 Discussion ..................................................................................................................................58 STUDY 4 .......................................................................................................................................60 Research Design.........................................................................................................................60 Results ........................................................................................................................................61 Manipulation Checks ...........................................................................................................61 Assessment of the Measures ................................................................................................63 Assessment of the Main Effects ...........................................................................................64 Assessment of the Mediation Effects ...................................................................................68 Discussion ..................................................................................................................................71 GENERAL DISCUSSION ............................................................................................................72 Managerial Implications ............................................................................................................74 Theoretical Implications ............................................................................................................75 APPENDICES ...............................................................................................................................78 Appendix A Complete Scenarios: Study 1 .................................................................................79 Appendix B Complete Scenarios: Study 1.................................................................................84 Appendix C Complete Scenarios: Study 1.................................................................................86 Appendix D Complete Scenarios: Study 1 ................................................................................88 REFERENCES ..............................................................................................................................90 vi LIST OF TABLES Table 1-1: Correlation Matrix ........................................................................................................26 Table 1-2: Measurement Model .....................................................................................................27 Table 1-3: Descriptive Statistics ....................................................................................................28 Table 1-4: Descriptive Information of Measures ...........................................................................29 Table 1-5: Multivariate Tests .........................................................................................................29 Table 1-6: Univariate Tests ............................................................................................................30 Table 1-7: Test of Mediation Effects ..............................................................................................32 Table 2-1: Correlation Matrix ........................................................................................................37 Table 2-2: Measurement Model .....................................................................................................38 Table 2-3: Descriptive Information of Measures ...........................................................................39 Table 2-4: Descriptive Statistics ....................................................................................................40 Table 2-5: Multivariate Tests .........................................................................................................41 Table 2-6: Between-Subjects Tests for an Interaction between DEP and FRQ .............................41 Table 2-7: Univariate Test ..............................................................................................................42 Table 2-8: Tests of Mediation Effects ............................................................................................44 Table 3-1: Correlation Matrix ........................................................................................................50 Table 3-2: Measurement Model .....................................................................................................51 Table 3-3: Descriptive Information of Measures ...........................................................................51 Table 3-4: Descriptive Statistics ....................................................................................................53 Table 3-5: Multivariate Tests .........................................................................................................54 Table 3-6: Univariate Tests ............................................................................................................54 Table 3-7: Between-Subjects Tests for an Interactions ..................................................................55 vii Table 3-8: Tests of Moderated Mediation Effects ..........................................................................57 Table 4-1: Correlation Matrix ........................................................................................................62 Table 4-2: Measurement Model .....................................................................................................63 Table 4-3: Descriptive Information of Measures ...........................................................................64 Table 4-4: Descriptive Statistics ....................................................................................................65 Table 4-5: Multivariate Tests .........................................................................................................66 Table 4-6: Univariate Tests ............................................................................................................66 Table 4-7: Between-Subjects Tests for an Interactions ..................................................................68 Table 4-8: Tests of Moderated Mediation Effects ..........................................................................70 Table 5: Summary of Hypotheses Testing .....................................................................................72 viii LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Proposed Conceptual Model ..........................................................................................24 Figure 2: Mean Plots for Discount DEP and FRQ .........................................................................31 Figure 3: 2x2 Mean Plots for Discount DEP, Discount FRQ, and BEF ........................................43 Figure 4: 2x2 Mean Plots for Discount DEP, Discount FRQ, and NP ..........................................56 Figure 5: 2x2 Mean Plots for Discount DEP, Discount FRQ, and NB ..........................................69 Figure 6–1: Price Tags of Shopping Task #1: Low DEP and Low FRQ........................................79 Figure 6–2: Price Tags of Shopping Task #2: Low DEP and Low FRQ........................................80 Figure 6–3: Price Tags of Shopping Task #1: High DEP and High FRQ ......................................80 Figure 6–4: Price Tags of Shopping Task #2: High DEP and High FRQ ......................................81 Figure 6–5: Price Tags of Shopping Task #1: High DEP and Low FRQ .......................................81 Figure 6–6: Price Tags of Shopping Task #2: High DEP and Low FRQ .......................................82 Figure 6–7: Price Tags of Shopping Task #1: Low DEP and High FRQ .......................................82 Figure 6–8: Price Tags of Shopping Task #2: Low DEP and High FRQ .......................................83 Figure 7–1: Price Tags of Shopping Task #2: Low BEF, High DEP, and High/Low FRQ ............84 Figure 7–2: Price Tags of Shopping Task #2: Low BEF, Low DEP, and High/Low FRQ ............84 Figure 7–3: Price Tags of Shopping Task #2: High BEF, Low DEP, and High/Low FRQ ............85 Figure 7–4: Price Tags of Shopping Task #2: High BEF, High DEP, and High/Low FRQ ...........85 Figure 8–1: Price Tags of Shopping Task #2: NP, Low DEP, and High/Low FRQ .......................86 Figure 8–2: Price Tags of Shopping Task #2: NP, High DEP, and High/Low FRQ ......................87 Figure 9–1: Price Tags of Shopping Task #2: NB, High DEP, and High/Low FRQ .....................88 Figure 9–2: Price Tags of Shopping Task #2: NB, Low DEP, and High/Low FRQ ......................89 ix INTRODUCTION For marketing managers, how to design a sales promotion in a way that it motivates consumers to purchase more than usual (i.e., stockpiling behavior) and more frequently is an important strategic decision (e.g., Wansink 1994; Wansink, Kent, and Hoch 1998) along with purchase incidence and brand choice of consumers. Managers would encourage consumers to stockpile, if doing so allows them to passes inventory holding costs to consumers (e.g., Blattberg, Fppen, and Liebemian 1981). The transmission of inventory holding costs reduces the level of firm’s inventory which may be out-of date and to be shipped back. Moreover, while conventionally stockpiling was deemed as a loss factor because it is commonly driven by a sales promotion which reduces profit margin as well as because promotion induced stockpiling delays consumers’ subsequent purchases (i.e., postpromotion dip) in which they would buy the promoted brand at regular price (e.g., Ailawadi, Gedenk, Lutzky, and Neslin 2007). However, Ailawadi, Gedenk, Lutzky, and Neslin (2007) finds evidence of important benefits of stockpiling (e.g., preemptive brand switches and repeat purchases). On consumers’ side, a trade-off is between the promotional savings for future consumption and the added costs incurred by carrying extra inventory (Assuncao and Meyer 1993; Helsen and Schmittlein 1992; Krishna 1992, 1994). Stockpiling is to be defined as the inclination of consumers to increase their inventory level by purchasing more items than usual at a purchase occasion and/or by advancing their purchase time before the expected time of their subsequent purchase (e.g., Neslin, Henderson, and Ouelch 1985; Macé and Neslin 2004; Blattberg and Neslin 1990). Stockpiling would occur for nonperishable and stockable products. Thus, stock-up products are the focus of this dissertation which refer to products that are nonperishable and in a unit size consumers frequently purchase and consume (Litback, Calantone, and Warshaw 1985). 1 A sales promotion is a fundamental condition to trigger consumes’ stockpiling behavior (Blattberg, Eppen, and Lieberman 1980; Neslin 2002). The propensity of consumers to stockpile the promoted brand would be intensified when a sales promotion is infrequently provided, when the promotional saving is greater than expected, and when consumers are more certain about the regular as well as the deal price of the product (Kristiaan and Schmittlein 1992). In addition, consumers who have higher income Stilley, Inman, and Wakefield (2010) and loyal Sun, Neslin, and Srinivasan (2003) to the promoted brand are more likely to stockpile. There have been various studies investigating consumers’ behavior on firm’s promotional deals, but less attention was directed toward comprehending the underlying psychological process of stockpiling behavior. One primary exception is Wansink, Kent, and Hoch (1998). They examined an anchoring and adjustment judgment process as a psychological process through which consumers go to make their purchase quantity decision. Also we have paucity in our understanding of how the relationship between a discount and stockpiling would vary. Thus, four experiments of this dissertation designs and implements various types of price discounts and consumers’ price knowledge and their perceived overall similarity with shopping experiences are introduced as mediators of the relationship between a price discount and stockpiling. Furthermore, this dissertation investigates how proposed direct and indirect relationships would vary when there is a change in product size as well as in market situation (i.e., new product introduction and new brand introduction). In general, this dissertation intends to answer the following questions: (1) What types of price discounts trigger stockpiling behavior? and (2) Would types of discounts operate differently for different products (i.e., benefit changed products) and for different situations (i.e., an introduction of a new product under an established brand name or under new brand name)? In addition to the main effects of a price discount on 2 consumers’ stockpiling behavior, its direct effects on price consumers’ price knowledge and perceived similarity with overall shopping experiences are tested. A product category focused here is carefully chosen. It should be nonperishable, stockable, regularly purchased, and commonly discounted product. This dissertation attempts to make the following contributions by answering those research questions above. The importance of understanding how a sales promotion should be designed to motivate consumers’ stockpiling behavior is addressed in a recent study examining effects of stockpiling (Ailawadi, Gedenk, Lutzky, and Neslin 2007). Thus, first, this dissertation attempts to make a contribution to the literature of sales promotion and stockpiling by demonstrating how a sales promotion can be configured and scheduled to drive consumers’ stockpiling and how such relationships vary across product types as well as situations. Attractiveness of a sales promotion is to be determined by how deep a discount is and how frequently a discount has been offered over time. If a given sales promotion is suffice for attracting consumers to stockpile, a firm will enable to capture benefits (e.g., reduced inventory costs, increased repeat purchases, preempted switches to competitors’ brands) and, in turn, to achieve its strategic goals. Also the attractiveness of the same price discount may vary when the product size of the promoted brand is changed and when a new product is launched under the established brand or the new brand. As a result, firms will understand how to better calibrate their pricing discounts when trying to trigger stockpiling behavior for different products and for different situations. The need to understand consumers’ process through which they make “how much” decision pulled our attention (e.g., Wansink, Kent, and Hoch 1998). The second contribution is to identify key mediating mechanisms which underlie the relationship between a price discount and consumers’ stockpiling behavior. Proposed mediators are price knowledge and consumers’ 3 perceived similarity between their shopping events over time. In addition, both absolute (i.e., price recall) and relative (i.e., price comparison) price knowledge are measured and utilized in hypotheses testing to capture more aspects of consumer price knowledge. That is, it is argued that both measures are necessary to more fully capture and comprehend consumer price knowledge which is a direct response to the necessity of multiple measures of price knowledge by Anderson and Simester (2009, p. 153). Overall, four experiments find that stockpiling behavior is more likely to occur when a deeper discount is less frequently offered. Regarding to price knowledge, when a shallower discount is more frequently provided, consumers show the propensity to more thoroughly search price and their price knowledge is less error prone. Also among proposed moderators, benefit change and new product introduction attenuate the main effects of discount depth and frequency on stockpiling while new brand introduction amplified such main effects on stockpiling. 4 CONCEPTUAL BACKGROUND Consumer Stockpiling Behavior Consumers’ stockpiling behavior has been commonly found in various studies (Bucklin and Gupta 1992; Bucklin, Gupta, and Siddarth 1998; Chintagunta and Haldar 1998; Gupta 1988; Macé and Neslin 2004; Van Heerde, Leeflang, and Wittink 2000, 2004). A fundamental drive consumers’ stockpiling behavior is a deal which allows consumers to have promotional savings (Blattberg, Eppen, and Lieberman 1981; Neslin 2002) which induces them to buy more or sooner than usual (Blattberg, Eppen, and Lieberman 1981; Neslin, Henderson, and Quelch 1985). In other words, price and an offered sales promotion are important criteria consumers utilize to decide “what to buy” as well as “how many to buy” (e.g., Tellis and Zufryden 1995). Retailers offer promotional activities because promotion-induced stockpiling shifts inventory holding costs of retailers to consumers (Blattberg, Eppen, and Lieberman (1981). Retailers’ inventory holding costs comes from two sources that are the capital entangled in inventory as well as the space utilized to hold inventory. Consumers’ costs generated by carrying a couple more products than usual would not be as costly as retailers’. One of motivations for manufacturers to trigger consumers’ stockpiling behavior is to boost nonusers’ trial of their brands (Blattberg, Eppen, and Lieberman 1981). Ailawadi, Gedenk, Lutzky, and Neslin (2007) find that, after consumers leveraging a sales promotion, the resultant extra inventory results in the increased consumers’ consumption of the promoted brand (i.e., flexible consumption), the preempted future purchases of the promoted brand (i.e., postpromotion dip) (e.g., Neslin, Powell, and Stone 1995), the preempted future purchases of competitors’ brands (e.g., Lodish 1986), and the probable repeat purchase of the promoted brand. Also they showed preempted switching to competitors’ brands and consumers’ repeated purchases of the promoted brand enable manufacturers to compensate their financial loss from delayed 5 subsequent purchase in which consumes would have bought at a regular price. Consumers’ stockpiling behavior increases the sales of the promoted brand and such an effect was greater for higher-share brands than for the smaller-share brands (Chan, Narasimhan, and Zhang 2008; Macé and Neslin 2004). For consumers, buying more is a trade-off between costs engendered by carrying more items than usual and savings from a reduced price for future consumption. Promotional savings encourage consumers’ stockpiling behavior for future consumption (Chintagunta 1993; Heilman, Nakamoto, and Rao 2002; Nijs, Dekimpe, Steenkamp, and Hanssens 2001; Pauwels, Hanssens, and Siddarth 2002). Overall stockpiling is a rational purchase behavior of consumers to minimize their costs (Dellaert, Golounov, and Prabhu 2005). Consumers’ purchase quantity decision may be based on the utility of a sales promotion in the long term as well as the short term (e.g., Litvack, Calantone, and Warshaw 1985) or consumers simply cannot go by a deal (e.g., Meyer and Assuncao 1990). Also consumers’ long-term exposure to sales promotion leads to “lie-in-wait” which manifests consumers’ stockpiling behavior on a given purchase incidence and the postponement of their subsequent purchase incidence till another promotion is available (Mela, Jedidi, and Bowman 1998). That is, previously paid prices influence on consumers to develop their future price expectation (or expectation on a sales promotion) (e.g., Gonul and Srinvasan 1996; Jacobson and Obermiller 1990). In other words, consumers adapt their purchase quantity decision to a price pattern over time (Meyer and Assuncao 1990). Krishna (1994) shows, when deals are provided in regular pattern and consumers can predict a future deal, they purchase more. However, the same study finds that irregularity in firm’s deal offering plan increased purchase quantity. The latter may appear because consumers do not want to miss a chance to get promotional savings for future consumption of the promoted product. 6 Furthermore previous literature unveiled consumers’ heterogeneous characteristics in their reactions to a sales promotion. Stockpiling behavior is more likely to occur for consumers with higher income than those who with lower income (Stilley, Inman, and Wakefield 2010). The sensitivity to future savings is higher for consumers with tighter budget. (Hoch et al. 1995). Consumers who are loyal to the promoted brand may more recognize the utility in their tradeoff between the incurred inventory holding costs and the increased future consumption with promotional savings than non-loyal consumers do (Krishna 1994; Sun, Neslin, and Srinivasan 2003). In contrast, a sales promotion does not motivate brand switchers to stockpile at all (Chan, Narasimhan, and Zhang 2008). They also found that incurred promotional savings by stockpiling the promoted brand on future consumption are more significant for heavy users than for light users. Consumer Price Search Behavior Various studies argue that a large proportion of consumers’ price search is limited and also only a small fraction of alterative products constitute consumers’ purchase options (Lapersonne, Laurent, and LeGoff 1995; Moorthy, Ratchford, and Talukdar 1997; Ratchford and Srinivasan 1993). In the similar vein, Dickson and Sawyer (1990, p. 47) find that “slightly more than half (57%) of the shoppers claimed to have checked the price of the chosen item and fewer than one in four (21.6%) reported checking the price of an alternative brand … only 13.9% said they checked prices to remember until next time and 12.8% checked the price to compare prices between supermarkets.” In addition, Murthi and Srinivasan (1999) show that inclusion of consumers’ partial evaluation behavior across alternatives increased the predictive power of a model compared with other models without it. Vanhuele and Dreze (2002) argue that consumers may actively search price information or incidentally notice price information. 7 By leveraging consumers’ limited price search behavior, which leads to limited price knowledge, firms can charge higher price. However, marketers should be aware that even a moderate level of knowledge can induce consumers to actively pursue available information (i.e., the concave relationship between knowledge and the extent of consumer price search; Moorthy, Ratchford, and Talukdar 1997). Cherry pickers show no significant differences from those who do not conduct within-store search (Vanhuele and Dreze 2002). Overall, the amount of past price knowledge and the mental calculation of gains and losses from additional search may explain consumers’ limited search behavior (Carlson and McAfee 1983; Dahlby and West 1986). In the next two sections, I will briefly discuss representation and judgment of a price as well as the feeling of familiarity. Price Cognition and Representation of Price Information Consumers’ price perception is an indispensable factor in their purchase decision making (e.g., Monroe 2003). During searching and processing price information, consumers judge a focal price by comparing it to the latitude of their internal reference price as well as the external reference prices (i.e., prices of brands in a product category). Such a process of price search and judgment is subjective and relativistic (e.g., DelVecchio, Krishnan, and Smith 2007; Janiszewski and Lichtenstein 1999; Kalyanaram and Little 1994). Price cognition, by definition, is the cognitive processes consumers undergo when they make price magnitude judgments, and price cognition consists of rule-based processes and instinctive-associative processes (i.e., heuristics) (Thomas and Morwtiz 2009). Consumer responses to price information are also determined by online arithmetic computation and by stored information in their memories (i.e., associative knowledge structure) (e.g., Ashcraft 1995). When consumers are repetitively exposed to a similar numeric, their responses tend to get faster and they perceive similar questions as easier the next 8 time. Price cognition consists of multiple psychological tasks that occur simultaneously or sequentially in one’s mind: the retrieval of price information stored from previous events, the pursuit of price information from a current event, and the arithmetic comparison (i.e., subjective calculation) of prices. Consumes who fail to retrieve previously stored price information do not have accessible information in their memories, or are not motivated to retrieve it likely compare a target price and prices of alternatives at the point of purchase. The retrieval of price information is influenced by how it was encoded and stored in memory. During a previous shopping event, consumers might encode price information as symbolic representation or analog representation (see Markman 1999). With analog representation, a numeric value serves as a subjective magnitude on a mental numerical continuum, similar to representations of other psychophysical stimuli (e.g., light, size) (Thomas and Morwitz 2009). Symbolic representation is conceptually similar to a visual Arabic code of a triple-code model. Under a triple-code model (Dehaene 1992; Dehaene and Akhavein 1995), numeric values are coded in memory as three different forms—namely, auditory verbal code, visual Arabic code, and analogue magnitude code. For example, if a price is encoded as auditory verbal code, $7.15 will be represented and stored as “seven dollars and fifteen cents” in one’s mind. If visual Arabic coding is used, one processes and stores the price as “$7.15.” Finally, with analogue magnitude code, the price is captured as an approximate magnitude located between “$7 and $8 and closer to $7” on one’s subjective numeric continuum. In line with Thomas and Morwitz’s (2009) discussion, a processed numeric symbol (e.g., $7.15) can be converted into an analog magnitude code (e.g., between $7.00 and $7.50) quite automatically and simultaneously at the encoding stage (Vanhuele and Dreze 2002). This coded price can be compared not only with the latitude of consumers’ internal reference price, which 9 can be retrieved from long-term memory, but also with external reference prices at the point of purchase. Such comparisons stem from online calculations of numeric symbols and/or holistic comparisons of subjective numeric locations on a numeric continuum in one’s mind. The Feeling of Familiarity When consumers confront a shopping event that is similar to a previously experienced event, they unconsciously or consciously compare them at both the item level (e.g., product, price) and the holistic context level (e.g., overall shopping experience). This section presents a literature review of the psychological processes in play for retrieval or reconstruction of a previously experienced event. In general, recognition includes two types of processes: feeling of familiarity and recollection. In line with the traditional dual-process perspective of recognition memory, the feeling of familiarity does not require intentionality, consciousness, or consumption of conscious resources; in contrast, recollection requires people to be effortful in search and retrieval of information in memory and to pay attention to the process. Moreover, an unconscious feeling of familiarity triggers people’s deliberate effort in recollection (Leboe and Whittlesea 2002). Overall, the feeling of familiarity is an automatic process that is not consciously controlled, while recollection is intentional and controllable (e.g., Atkinson and Juola 1973; Jacoby 1991, 1994, 1998; Mandler 1979, 1980, 1991). Overall, prior research agrees that the feeling of familiarity derives from an unconscious inferential process (e.g., Jacoby and Dallas 1981; Jacoby and Whitehouse 1989; Lindsay and Kelley 1996; Rajaram 1993; Whittlesea 1993). In addition, the feeling of familiarity with an item is strengthened by the experience with the same item on a previous occasion (e.g., Jacoby and Dallas 1981). However, studies provide evidence that recollection can also be an unconscious inferential process (Bartlett 1932; Loftus, Miller, and Burns 1978; Loftus and Palmer 1974; 10 Roediger and McDermott 1995, 1996). Thus, recollection can be considered the mental reconstruction of a prior event based on the information that comes to mind. The accuracy of the reconstruction is determined by the extent to which the person encoded details of a prior event. If such objective and detailed information is not available, recollection can also emerge through an inferential process that assesses a piece of the information that comes to mind with respect to its clarity, completeness, fluency, and relationship to other event-related information. By definition, then, recollection is subject to errors (i.e., illusions of recall; Leboe and Whittlesea 2002). As discussed previously, although the dual process treats the feeling of familiarity as a heuristicsbased reconstruction and recollection as a controlled retrieval, it is argued that the differentiation of the two processes as automatic versus controlled merely depicts the extensiveness of each process (Leboe and Whittlesea 2002). Leboe and Whittlesea (2002, p. 823) state that a primary difference in the two processes is “the subjective conviction that current processing reflects an influence of the past.” Thus, a significant factor influencing consumers’ subjective recognition experience is their unconscious assessment of information appearing to their minds in terms of its quality and consistency. In addition recollection is more likely to require conscious resources than the feeling of familiarity, and the feeling of familiarity may occur with the intention to recall (e.g., Leboe and Whittlesea 2002). In conclusion, rational assumption on consumers’ decision making process is history. Price knowledge developed over time and shopping behavior (e.g., price search) of consumers influences their purchase quantity decision when they face a sales promotion. This dissertation intends to extent our knowledge by designing and implementing four experiments which investigate how the relationships between discount types and stockpiling behavior vary across different product types and situations. Also such experiments examine if price knowledge and 11 perceived similarity of shopping experiences are mediating mechanisms of the relationships between a discount and stockpiling. 12 STUDY 1 Study 1 is to establish the baseline effects of a sales promotion on stockpiling behavior. One of primary effects of interest is to investigate how discount depth and frequency influence stockpiling behavior. Another main goal of Study 1 is to introduce initial mediating mechanisms. That is, it is proposed that consumer perceived similarity of the overall shopping experience, price recall error, and price comparison error are mediators of the relationships between a sales promotion and stockpiling behavior. In addition, if the effects of discount depth and frequency on price recall error (PRE) and price comparison error (PCE), and perceived similarity are tested. Hypothesis Development The Impact of Discount Depth. The assumption of consumers’ perfect rationality in their purchase decision making is unrealistic (e.g., Dickson and Sawyer 1990). In certain cases, due to limited price knowledge, consumers may more rely on prices at the moment rather than ones developed from past prices they paid in order to determine purchase, brand choice, and quantity. Provided that consumers’ preferred brand is promoted, they may exert more efforts to process a current discounted price, to compare it to an expected price (i.e., internal reference price), and to update their internal price accordingly (i.e., contrast effect). Such intraitem price search behavior would result in lower PRE (e.g., Vanhuele and Dreze 2002). In addition, they may compare the promoted price to prices of alternative brands in order to evaluate promoted brand’s price position in a category and support their decision. However, it is also possible that the attractiveness of a sales promotion available for their preferred brand demotivates such a rational price search behavior, that is to say higher PRE and PCE. In other words, a discount itself may make both inter- and intraitem price search unnecessary tasks for consumers (e.g., Dickson and Sawyer 1990). The negative effect of discount depth on consumers’ price knowledge accuracy is to be intensified when a 13 discount rate gets deeper. Of the two types of familiarity which are objective familiarity and perceived familiarity, this study builds on self-assessed (perceived) familiarity (e.g., Lichtenstein and Fishhoff 1977), which, by definition, is subject to systematic biases and heuristics in consumer decision making (Park and Lessig 1981). The underlying process for the feeling of familiarity is an inferential and constructive process through which consumers undergo (e.g., Marcel 1983). Thus, consumers in the current shopping context consciously or unconsciously integrate various aspects from this context and evaluate the degree of similarity to such aspects from the previous shopping experience. Fundamentally, consumers’ recognition of a discount for their preferred brand would interfere their familiarity judgment. The feeling of dissimilarity will be stronger with an increasing discount depth. When a price discount is provided on a stock-up product, consumers would take advantage of it by stockpiling items for future consumption and by delaying the time of their subsequent purchase (e.g., Litvack, Calantone, Warshaw 1985). In other words, consumers will be willing to increase their short-term costs in order to reduce long-term costs. Overall the positive relationship between discount depth and purchase quantity is supported (Bell, Chiang, and Padmannabhan 1999). H1 : The depth of a price discount has a direct, positive effect on price recall error (H1a) and price comparison error (H1b) to the extent that deeper discounts are associated with higher error. H2 : The depth of a price discount has a direct, negative effect on perceived similarity of the overall shopping experience. H3 : The depth of a price discount has a direct, positive effect on consumer stockpiling. 14 The Impact of Discount Frequency. If there is a consistency regarding prices paid over time, consumers’ expectation of future price would be more accurate, price knowledge built on past prices paid over time. At the same time, their feeling of confidence with own price knowledge would increase as well. For a given product category, if consumers have a short purchase cycle (i.e., their purchase frequency in a fixed time period), a price stored in their memory from a past purchase occasion will be more accurate and up-to-date. Also their purchase behavior would be a more habitual or routine-based task. This is because price sought, processed and stored in their previous purchase occasion is easy to access due to a small time gap between purchase occasions. The feeling of familiarity depends on predictiveness, uncertainty, the match between expected information and current information, and the perceived surprise in the current shopping event (Whittlesea and Williams 2001). Notice of any changes in the current shopping occasion would serve as perceived surprise which precedes consumers’ judgment of the feeling of familiarity. While shopping, various stimuli can evoke consumers’ feeling of familiarity with their shopping experience (e.g., Koriat and Levy-Sadot 2001; Koriat and Lieblich 1977; Marcel 1983). Frequent exposure to the same (or very similar) stimuli over time positively influences consumers’ expectations and predictiveness but negatively influences their uncertainty in the current shopping occasion. When consumers face with an unexpected or unusual stimulus (e.g., an unusually deep discount), they might disassociate the current shopping experience with the previous one, resulting in unmet expectation and increased uncertainty about the current occasion (Whittlesea and Williams 2001). Increasing frequency of exposure to a particular stimulus increases the feeling of familiarity with that particular stimulus (e.g., Nhouyvanisvong and Reder 1998; Reder and Ritter 1992; Reder and Schunn 1996; Scunn et al. 1997). If consumers frequently purchase their preferred brand with a discount over time, their perceived frequency of discount availability will increase 15 (Krishna 1991). In turn, consumers’ feeling of familiarity regarding their shopping experience will increase. Consumers’ knowledge about the pattern of sales promotions is highlighted as an important drive of stockpiling (e.g., Krishna 1994). If consumers adapt to increasing sales promotion frequency, the effect of a sales promotion would wear-out over time and/or consumers may not see a discounted price as attractive as before (e.g., Foekens, Leeflang, and Wittink 1999; Kopalle, Mela, and Marsh 1999). Thus consumers will wait for the next sales promotion for future purchase and, on a given purchase occasion, stock up the promoted brand to the necessary inventory level where consumers can consume till a subsequent deal is provided. The lying-inwait heuristic results from consumes’ certainty and expectation about when the next sales promotion would be available (Krishna 1994). Based on behavioral learning perspective (e.g., Blattberg and Neslin 1990), it could be posited that the increasing opportunity for consumers to have a promotional benefit allows them to learn to stockpile the promoted item consistently (Ailawadi, Harlam, Cesar, and Trounce 2006). However, consumers may not more tend to stockpile the promoted brand with increasing promotion frequency (e.g., Ailawadi, Harlam, Cesar, and Trounce 2006). That is, consumers’ risk averse propensity combined with their higher uncertainty about when the next sales promotion would be available may encourage them to stockpile the promoted brand. Products with higher regular price and a random discount chance are more likely to be stockpiled by consumers when they are promoted (e.g., Meyer and Assuncao 1990). Consumers may feel an obligation to make a purchase, to stock up the promoted item, and to carry additional items to a subsequent purchase occasion in order to minimize future costs (e.g., Meyer and Assuncao 1990; Krishna 1994). This would be intensified when their preferred brand is discounted. 16 H4 : The frequency of a price discount has a direct, negative effect on price recall error (H4a) and price comparison error (H4b) to the extent that less frequent discounts are associated with less error. H5 : The frequency of a price discount has a direct, positive effect on perceived similarity of the overall shopping experience. H6 : The frequency of a price discount has a direct, negative effect on consumer stockpiling. The Mediation Effects of PRE, PCE, and Perceived Familiarity of Overall Shopping Experience. For stock-up products, consumers’ purchase quantity would be more determined by price they know than one they remember (e.g., Monroe 2003; Monroe and Lee 1999). Remembering prices require consumers to consume conscious resources in order to retrieve or recollect specific price points, but knowing prices is more associated with a sense of familiarity (or the feeling of familiarity) which does not require the consumption of conscious resources (e.g., Gardiner 1988; Rajaram 1993; Tulving 1985). In other words, while knowing is an instinctive and fast task, recollecting specific prices (i.e., past prices of the promoted brand) necessitate (1) the symbolic representation of prices, (2) the deliberative and slow cognitive process, and (3) consumption of conscious resources. In addition, consumers’ perceived familiarity with shopping experience is suggested as another factor which mediates the relationship between types of discount and stockpiling behaviors. Park ad Lessig (1981) finds a positive monotonic relationship between the feeling of familiarity and the confidence with a decision made. Thus, increasing chances to purchase consumers’ preferred brand at a promoted price may increase their perceived familiarity across purchase occasions and, in turn, increasing perceived confidence with their choice and quantity will 17 motivate consumers’ stockpiling behavior. This is also associated with the concept of behavioral learning (e.g., Blattberg and Neslin 1990). However, it should be also realized that the unexpected surprise (e.g., unexpected deeper discount) may interfere consumers’ feeling of familiarity (i.e., contrast effect). Purchase decision making and price magnitude judgments of consumes with a long purchase cycle may be determined more by inferences to their perceived similarity to an item itself and/or a context (i.e., price, product, and overall shopping experience). That is, because these consumers’ price knowledge gets less accurate and more uncertain over time and because they have some degree of expectations of future price, they will infer previously paid prices and compare them with the current prices. Such an inference and reconstruction process is based on the perceived similarity of various aspects such as current price, brand assortment, shopping purpose, and so on. In turn, stockpiling behavior can be influenced by consumers’ perceived familiarity with shopping experiences. If consumers remember things about the previous shopping event (e.g., brand choice, paid price, shelf location) that match the current event (i.e., affirmation of definite expectations; Whittlesea and Williams 2001) and if such expectations are violated with a surprise (e.g., unusually deep discount, product size reduction) (i.e., violation of expectation; Whittlesea and Williams 2001). If consumers attribute the produced information to the previous shopping event and the feeling of familiarity is strong, they might not actively search but rather depend on price information in the current shopping event (i.e., higher probability of price recall error and price comparison error). 18 H7 : The effects of the depth of a discount on stockpiling are mediated by price recall error (H7a), price comparison error (H7b), and perceived similarity of the experience (H7c). H8 : The effects of the frequency of a discount on stockpiling are mediated by price recall error (H8a), price comparison error (H8b), and perceived similarity of the experience (H8c). Research Design Study1 employs 2 (high vs. low discount depth) x 2 (high vs. low discount frequency) betweensubject design that serves as the base for other three experiments. Total 495 participants were randomly assigned to one of four conditions. The experiment of Study1 consists of two consecutive shopping tasks (i.e., computer simulated shopping events). Each task includes written information (i.e., shopping scenario) and price tags of purchase options. Each price tag displays regular price, discounted price, dollar amount to be saved from a given discount, and unit price and package size. Following sections discuss (1) manipulations of discount depth and frequency, (2) experiment procedure, (3) measures, (4) sample/data collection, and (5) means of data analysis before discussing results and findings of Study1. Manipulation and Product Category. The primary interest of my dissertation is how price discounts determined by depth and frequency influence consumer stockpiling behavior and what is an underlying psychological process of such relationships, in particular for low-involvement products. Thus, a product category used in this experiment should be one that consumers commonly and/or regularly shop for (e.g., consumer packaged goods). Also the formation of internal reference price standards is more likely to arise with the presence of repurchase intention 19 in the near future (Mazumdarm, Raj, and Sinha 2005). Previous research investigating effects of sales promotion and consumer stockpiling behavior classified products into two groups. The one category was identified by consumer stockpiling and flexible consumption behaviors (e.g., salted snacks). Consumers for the other category only showed stockpiling behavior (e.g., coffee) (Bell, Chiang, and Padmanabhan 1999; Bell, Iyer, and Padmanabhan 2002). Taking all together, ground coffee was chosen as the focal product category for the current experiment and 12oz package size was used. Four between-subject conditions were determined by manipulations of high vs. low discount depth as well as high vs. low discount frequency. Levels of manipulations were determined based on pre-studies and previous literature. Any price discounts below are not to be easily recognizable (Litvack, Calantone, and Warshaw 1985). Kalwani and Yim (1992) found a significant difference in the level of expected price between high and low discount depth groups (i.e., 20% vs. 30%; 10% vs.20%; and 30% vs. 40%). DelVecchio, Krishnan, and Smith (2007) found that participants perceive 43% (vs. 13%), 40% (vs.15%), and 50% (vs. 10%) discounts higher than their corresponded lower discount rates. For the product category with consumer stockpiling behavior and flexible consumption behavior, the average discount rate provided was 36% and the other one where consumers showed stockpiling behavior only, the average discount rate was 26% (Bell, Iyer, and Padmanabhan 2002). Study1 chose 10% and 40% as low and high level discounts and they were checked through two pre-studies. Results indicated that participants perceived 40% discount rate significantly higher than 10% discount. The regular price for a focal product (i.e., participant’s preferred brand) was set at $7.15 in the current experiment. Thus, 10% discounted price is $6.44 and 40% discounted price is $4.29. 20 Furthermore, an alternative brand option is a hypothetical brand, Café Value. Its price was set at $4.78 that is between $6.44 and $4.29. One’s perception on discount frequency over time was more accurate when the regularity was employed than when not (Krishna 1991). In the same research, discount frequency was manipulated by providing three discounts for low discount frequency vs. six discounts for high discount frequency over a 12-week period regardless of regularity. Here discount frequency was manipulated by a combination of written information given in each shopping scenario and the number of discounts available across two shopping tasks. Participants in low discount frequency group had only one discount which was available at the second shopping and those who in high discount frequency group had total four discounts sequentially (i.e., two discounts from the written information and two discounts provided at all of two shopping tasks). Procedure of Shopping Tasks. In order to complete the experiment, participants conducted two consecutive shopping tasks. For each task, they were required to answer which brand they chose to purchase and how many items they decided to purchase. Prior to these main shopping tasks, participants answered an array of questions. In particular, three questions were used to complete shopping scenarios. The first question was about participant’s preferred brand name of ground coffee that one purchases most often. Such brand name (i.e., the focal brand) was presented in shopping tasks as one of choice options and also was manipulated in terms of discount depth and frequency. The second question was about one’s current product inventory level at home. The current level of product inventory would have a significant effect on one’s purchase quantity decision. Thus, of the two shopping tasks, the current inventory information was embedded in the first shopping scenario and one could defer the first purchase. The last question was about the level of product inventory where one usually decides to purchase to refill one’s inventory. This 21 information was piped in the second shopping scenario. In the second shopping task, one cannot defer one’s purchase. In addition, by asking one to imagine s/he is shopping a ground coffee in retail store where they often shop for grocery products, the potential influence from the store location on one’s decision making was to be controlled. As the last step, questions for predicting variables and covariates were asked and demographic information were collected. Appendices (i.e., Appendix A – D) present the complete scenarios of the experiment. Measures. This section only discusses sources of measurement items. The means of assessment of the measures and evidences of reliabilities and validities are discussed in later sections. Stockpiling. This is measured by purchase quantity in the second shopping task. If a participant chose to purchase one of alternative options, his or her purchase quantity is recoded to zero. Price recall error (PRE) represents represents consumer’s absolute price knowledge and is adapted from the measure Zeithaml (1982) used to examine consumers’ cognitive response to price information. It is operationalized as the absolute difference between actual price and recalled price. Unlike PRE, price comparison error (PCE) reflects consumer’s relative price knowledge and is adopted from Zeithaml (1982). It is operationalized as the number of incorrect rankings made by participants. Similarity which is participants’ perceived similarity between shopping tasks is measured with regard to overall shopping experience. Participants used a seven-point scale (1 = “very different,” 7= “very similar”) to respond to the following statement: “Please indicate how similar your current shopping trip you just made and your previous shopping trip is, in terms of the following….” Category knowledge, participants’ product category knowledge, is operationalized by adapting two measures of subjective knowledge from Brucks (1985). To form a single scale, the average score of two measures is used. To measure deal proneness, six measurement items are adopted from Lichtenstein, Ridgway, and Netemeyer 22 (1993). According to Murthi and Rao (2012), deal proneness is one of the reasons for consumer price unawareness. All six items are measured on a seven-point Likert scale, and an average score is used for hypotheses testing. Certainty of recalled price is measured by single measurement item which is adapted from the measure of consumers’ affective (i.e., attitude) response to price information in Zeithaml’s (1982) conceptual model. It asks a participant to answer the degree of certainty about one’s recalled price. For purchaser variable, before a participant conducts two shopping tasks, one was asked to identify oneself as a buyer or a nonbuyer. Lastly, as demographic variables, household size and household income are collected as covariates. In particular, household size is operationalized as the number of people in a household Data Collection and Samples. Data were collected through Amazon Mechanical Turk (MTurk), which is based on Internet crowdsourcing and is a popular platform to find participants. Various researchers have used MTurk as a source to select participants from the general population and have noted its usefulness and reliability (e.g., Buhrmester, Kwang, and Gosling 2011; Goodman, Cryder, and Cheema 2013; Paolacci, Chandler, and Ipeirotis 2010; Rand 2011). In their research noting differences between participants from MTurk and those from other sources (e.g., community members, students), Goodman, Cryder, and Cheema (2013) suggests that researchers use screening/filtering measures and also consider demographic properness of participants for their studies. Thus, for this study, data were collected in such a way that only those who met two preset conditions were able to participate in one of experiment conditions: (1) incentive approval ratio (i.e., >89%) and (2) country in which they reside (i.e., United States). Some additional screening questions were asked prior to experimental tasks. Last, in exchange for one’s 23 participation, a monetary compensation was granted. For the current experiment, cell sizes are in the range of 88 to 139. Total sample size is 495. Means of Analysis. Overall, data analysis was a three-stage process. First, reliabilities and validities of measures were assessed. Second, main effects of discount depth and frequency on purchase quantity, PRE, PCE, and similarity were tested along with potential interaction effects. Finally, mediation effects of similarity, PRE, and PCE were examined with counting covariates into the proposed model in Figure 1. Figure 1: Proposed Conceptual Model Price Recall Error Discount Depth Price Comparison Error Stockpiling Discount Frequency Perceived Similarity: Overall Shopping Benefit Change New Product Introduction New Brand Introduction The first is the assessment of the measures. For single item measures, the existence of overlapping confidence intervals was checked, That is, a variable should not have correlations which overlapping 1 with other separate variables. For two multi-item measures, category knowledge and deal proneness, a Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) was used. To check reliabilities and validities of the measures, Cronbach’s alpha, average variance extracted (AVE), 24 and composite reliability (CR) were calculated (Fornell and Larcker 1981). To form a single scale for those two multi-item measures, the average score in indicators is used for hypotheses testing. Secondly, Multivariate Analysis of Variance (MANOVA) was used to test Hypotheses 1 – 6 associated with main effects of discount depth and frequency on PRE, PCE, and similarity. The primary focus is on between-subject tests and comparisons. First of all, overall Wilk’s Lambdas were checked as evidence of multivariate test. If the multivariate tests shows statistical significance, univariate tests for each mediator and purchase quantity were followed. Here Bonferroni adjustments were made. Lastly, PROCESS macro in SPSS (Hayes and Preacher 2014) was used to test mediation effects, H7 – 8. In particular, for Study 1, Model 4 template was applied. This approach allowed a direct effect of single predicting variable on a dependent variable and its multiple indirect effects (i.e., multiple mediators) to be examined simultaneously. The magnitude and significance of the indirect effects were assessed by looking at upper and lower bounds for the confidence intervals surrounding each indirect effect. Results Manipulation Checks. Indicated average discount rates between high discount depth group (33.81%) and low discount depth group (16.97) were significantly different (F1,493=142.718, p<.01). The difference between average perceptions on a given discount rate between two groups was also significant (F1,493=124.044, p<.01). Between high and low discount frequency groups, their perceived number of discounts was significantly different (1.11 vs. 1.88) (F1,493=138.239, p<.01). Frequency perception was significantly different between two groups (F1,493=274.418, p<.01). 25 Table 1-1: Correlation Matrix Knowledge Deal Quantity PRE PCE Certainty Similarity Household Household Size Income Knowledge Deal .796 -.012 Lower 95% CI Upper 95% CI -.100 .076 Quantity .046 -.028 Lower 95% CI Upper 95% CI -.042 .134 -.116 .060 .097* -.135** -.040 Lower 95% CI Upper 95% CI .009 .184 -.221 -.047 -.128 .048 PCE .014 -.090* -.027 .032 Lower 95% CI Upper 95% CI -.074 .102 -.177 -.002 -.115 .061 -.056 .120 Certainty .070 .047 .142** Lower 95% CI Upper 95% CI -.018 .157 -.041 .135 .055 .227 -.322 -.156 -.093 .083 Similarity .035 .060 -.026 -.023 -.050 .119** Lower 95% CI Upper 95% CI -.053 .123 -.028 .147 -.114 .062 -.111 .065 -.138 .038 .031 .205 Household Size .066 -.033 .090* .023 -.026 .087 .019 Lower 95% CI Upper 95% CI -.022 .153 -.121 .055 .002 .177 -.065 .111 -.114 .062 -.001 .174 -.069 .107 Household Income .016 -.154** .140** -.031 -.020 .076 .046 .288** Lower 95% CI Upper 95% CI -.073 .104 -.239 -.067 .053 .225 -.119 .057 -.108 .068 -.012 .163 -.042 .134 .205 .367 PRE .0002 .536 . . . -.241** -.005 . . . . **. Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed). *. Correlation is significant at the 0.05 level (2-tailed). Notes: Correlations are in the lower triangle. Shared variances are in the upper triangle. AVE is on the diagonal. 26 Assessment of the Measures. As shown in Table1-1, single item measures did not show any correlations overlapping 1 for separate variables. Table1-2 presents a measurement model estimated by CFA. This model composed of two reflective multi-item latent constructs (i.e., category knowledge and deal proneness). Fit indices indicated a good-fit between the proposed model and the data (CFI=.976; SRMR=.039; RMSEA=.069) (Hu and Bentler, 1999). Evidence of reliabilities and validities was found on category knowledge (AVE=.7964, CR=.887, Cronbach’s alpha=.868) and on deal proneness (AVE=.5369, CR=.87, Cronbach’s alpha=.888). AVE was greater than the shared variance (Table1-1). In addition, Table1-4 has the descriptive information of measures. Table 1-2: Measurement Model λ Category Knowledge (CR=.887; AVE=.7964)  Rate your overall knowledge of “ground coffee”, as compared to the average consumer.  Please check the scale that best describes your familiarity with “ground coffee”. Deal Proneness (CR=.87; AVE=.5369)  If a product is on sale, that can be a reason for me to buy it.  When I buy a brand that is on sale, I feel that I am getting a good deal.  I have favorite brand, but most of time I buy the brand that is on sale.  One should try to buy the brand that is on sale.  I am more likely to buy brands that are on sale.  Compared to most people, I am more likely to buy brands that are on sale. Goodness-of-Fit Indexes CFI=.976; SRMR=.039; RMSEA=.069 27 .89 .89 .55 .61 .70 .73 .87 .87 Table 1-3: Descriptive Statistics DEP Quantity Low High PRE Low High PCE Low High Similarity Low High FRQ Quantity Low High PRE Low High PCE Low High Similarity Low High DEP Quantity Low High PRE Low High PCE Low High Similarity Low High Mean 1.548 2.127 44.638 56.728 1.243 0.903 5.106 5.123 SD 0.079 0.071 6.778 6.078 0.06 0.054 0.091 0.082 95% CI 1.392 1.704 1.987 2.266 31.321 57.955 44.785 68.67 1.125 1.361 0.797 1.009 4.927 5.285 4.962 5.284 2.007 0.07 1.869 2.145 1.668 0.08 1.511 1.824 52.354 6.023 40.519 64.189 49.012 6.827 35.599 62.425 1.045 0.053 0.94 1.15 1.101 0.06 0.982 1.22 4.914 0.081 4.755 5.073 5.315 0.092 5.135 5.495 FRQ Mean SD 95% CI Low 1.619 0.099 1.425 1.812 High 1.477 0.124 1.234 1.721 Low 2.396 0.1 2.198 2.593 High 1.858 0.1 1.661 2.055 Low 44.64 8.44 28.057 61.223 High 44.636 10.607 23.795 65.478 Low 60.067 8.596 43.178 76.957 High 53.388 8.596 36.499 70.278 Low 1.201 0.075 1.055 1.348 High 1.284 0.094 1.099 1.469 Low 0.888 0.076 0.738 1.038 High 0.918 0.076 0.768 1.068 Low 5.007 0.114 4.784 5.23 High 5.205 0.143 4.924 5.485 Low 4.821 0.116 4.594 5.048 High 5.425 0.116 5.198 5.653 28 Table 1-4: Descriptive Information of Measures N Mini Max Mean SD Quantity 495 1.00 6.00 1.869 1.209 PRE 495 0.00 570.00 51.184 99.417 PCE 495 0.00 2.00 1.0545 .895 Similarity 495 1 7 5.11 1.355 Certainty 495 1 7 4.21 1.513 Household Size 495 1 5 2.63 1.280 Household Income 492 1 14 6.30 3.631 Knowledge 495 1.00 7.00 4.211 1.459 Deal Proneness 495 1.00 7.00 4.740 1.134 Valid N 492 Assessment of the Main Effects. The main effect of discount depth on mediators and the main predicted variable was significant (Wilks’λ=.905, p<.01). Also that of discount frequency confirmed its significance (Wilks’λ=.957, p<.01. Given the fact that overall multivariate tests of discount depth and frequency are significant (Table1-5), univariate tests of each mediator and a predicted variable (quantity) are discussed. Table 1-5: Multivariate Tests Wilks’ λ F4,488 Sig. Partial Eta Squared Powerc b Intercept .050 2305.699 .000 .950 1.00 b DEP .905 12.872 .000 .095 1.00 FRQ .957 5.479b .000 .043 .976 b DEP*FRQ .987 1.605 .172 .013 .496 a. Design: Intercept + DEP + FRQ + DEP * FRQ b. Exact statistics c. Computed using alpha = .05 Table1-6 and Figure2 present the significance of each test and directions of relationships. (also see Table1-3). Discount depth showed its positive association with purchase quantity (F1,491=29.642, p<.01). In contrast, discount frequency revealed its negative relationship with purchase quantity (F1,491=10.188, p<.01). Thus H3 and H6 are supported. In terms of PCE, an increase in discount depth decreased PCE (F1,491=17.743, p<.01). This may tell that when 29 consumers’ preferred brand is more deeply discounted than the price they paid (i.e., internal price reference) in their previous shopping, they might be more likely to compare the price to those of other brands in a product category. The relationship between discount frequency and similarity was significant and positive (F1,491=10.716, p<.01). Table 1-6: Univariate Tests DEP Quantity Contrast Error PRE Contrast Error PCE Contrast Error Similarity Contrast Error FRQ Quantity Contrast Error PRE Contrast Error PCE Contrast Error Similarity Contrast Error MS F1,491 Sig. Partial Eta Squared Powera 40.032 29.642 .000 .057 1.00 1.350 17459.574 1.763 .185 .004 .263 9901.512 13.792 17.743 .000 .035 .988 .777 .036 .020 .888 .000 .052 1.792 MS 13.759 1.350 1333.887 9901.512 .378 .777 19.202 1.792 F1,491 Sig. Partial Eta Squared Powera 10.188 .002 .020 .890 .135 .714 .000 .066 .486 .486 .001 .107 10.716 .001 .021 .904 30 Figure 2: Mean Plots for Discount DEP and FRQ Quantity PRE Similarity PCE Assessment of the Mediation Effects. Table1-7 presents results of mediation tests for PRE, PCE, and similarity. Discount depth showed its positive and significant direct effect on quantity (t=5.068, p<.01). Discount frequency indicated its negative and significant direct effect on quantity (t=-2.889, p<.01). However, all of proposed mediators did not have significant indirect effects. 95% confidence intervals (CI) of each indirect effect when it was tested with discount depth are (1) PRE: -0.058 ~ 0.027, (2) PCE: -0.048 ~ 0.030, and (3) similarity: -0.022 ~ 0.015. 95% CIs of indirect effects which were tested with discount frequency are (1) PRE: -.007 ~ .014), (2) PCE: -.021 ~ .008), and (3) similarity (-0.022 ~ 0.015). 31 Table 1-7: Test of Mediation Effects DIRECT AND INDIRECT EFFECTS Direct effect of DEP on Quantity Effect SE t p LLCI .549 .108 5.068 .000 .336 Indirect effect of DEP on Quantity Effect Boot SE BootLLCI BootULCI TOTAL -.013 .023 -.058 .027 PRE -.005 .008 -.030 .004 PCE -.008 .020 -.048 .030 Similarity -.0003 .008 -.022 .015 DIRECT AND INDIRECT EFFECTS Direct effect of FRQ on Quantity Effect SE t p LLCI -.314 .109 -2.889 .004 -.528 Indirect effect of FRQ on Quantity Effect Boot SE BootLLCI BootULCI TOTAL -.013 .020 -.061 .021 PRE .001 .005 -.007 .014 PCE -.001 .006 -.021 .008 Similarity -.013 .018 -.057 .017 ULCI .762 ULCI -.101 Discussion Study1 examined direct relationships between types of discounts determined by its depth and frequency and consumer stockpiling behavior (i.e., purchase quantity) as well as indirect relationships through three mediators (i.e., PRE, PCE, similarity). Table 5 summarizes results of the hypotheses testing. In general, primary findings of Study1 are two folds. First, if a firm provides relatively deeper discount comparing to previously offered discount, consumers may purchase more. As hypothesized, if a firm make a discount available frequently and regularly, consumers may decrease their purchase quantity. Second, with regard to customer price search behavior and price 32 knowledge, when customers recognize an available high depth discount, they seems to be more motivated to search and compare prices at the category level (i.e., interitem search) than usual. Based on the findings of Study1, we need to extend our understanding to how consumer stockpiling behavior may vary when another pricing strategic aspect is employed. Thus, Study2 add benefit change into the model of Study1. Benefit change is to be manipulated by changing product size. It is a pervasive way of changing price in order for firms to stabilize their profit margin when there is an increase in price of raw materials. Thus, Study2 introduces benefit change as a moderator and examines how established relationships between types of price discounts and purchase quantity would be varied by benefit change. 33 STUDY 2 The primary goals of Study 2 are two folds. The first one is to replicate the baseline effects noted in Study 1 and the second one is to introduce moderating effects of benefit change. In other words, Study 2 investigates, when product size is changed for consumers’ preferred brand, how the established relationships in Study 1 change. Because reducing product size means less product benefit for consumers, consumers may adjust their purchase behavior accordingly. If a benefit change is recognized, it would make consumers necessary to update their knowledge because it overall influences the value calculation. Under concepts of behavioral learning (e.g., Blattberg and Neslin 1990) and feeling of familiarity (e.g., Whittlesea and Williams 2001), because of consumers’ learned benefits over time through promotional savings, even though there is a change in product size (i.e., reduced product benefit), consumers may not reevaluate product value. Even if consumers notice a change, if a given discount is unusual and deeper, they are less likely to update their price knowledge and more likely to stockpile the promoted item to maximize benefits. Updating their knowledge by reevaluating product value may occur under a condition in which a change in stimulus is distinctive enough for consumers to be encouraged to do so. However, as a recent article addresses, it seldom appears (The New York Times 2011). This may because firms make a change under the level of just-noticeabledifference of consumers and/or because consumers limited information search behavior. H9 : A benefit change moderates the effects of depth/frequency to the extent that the effects of both discounts are amplified when there is a benefit change. Research Design 34 The experiment of Study2 employs 2 (high vs. low discount depth) x 2 (high vs. low discount frequency) x 2 (high vs. low benefit/ between-subject design. A primary difference of Study2 from Study1 is the addition of benefit change (i.e., change in product size) into the base model tested in Study1. Study2 retains manipulations of discount depth and frequency from Study1. Benefit (i.e., product size) was operationalized by changing price information in price tag. After a 9% reduction in product size (i.e., low benefit group), unit price increased from 60 cents per oz. to 65 cents per oz. and product size decreased from 12 oz. to 11 oz. For both numerical information, the left digits were kept the same. However, with a 33% reduction (i.e., high benefit group), product size decreased from 12 oz. to 8 oz. The twodigit number decreased to a single digit; the single digit number, 8, also was greater than each digit of the base size (i.e., 1 and 2). Product unit price increased from 60 cents to 85 cents and involved a change in the left digit. Of the two shopping tasks, benefit manipulation is introduced in the second shopping task. Study2 kept other experimental aspects exactly same with those of Study2 including procedure, scenarios, data collection platform, and all of the measures. Lastly, for Study2, cell sizes are in the range of 72 to 174. Total sample size is 625. In terms of means of data analysis, hypotheses testing was conducted by following the same process of Study1 with the addition of the moderating effect of benefit change. So, in order to test the moderated mediation, a new model template in PROCESS macro was used (i.e., model 8 for moderated mediation). Results 35 Manipulation Checks. Indicated average discount rates between high discount group (32.83%) and low discount depth group (18.34%) were significantly different (F1,623=146.769, p<.01). The difference between average perceptions on a given discount rate between two groups were also significant (F1,623=134.782, p<.01). Indicated number of discounts showed a significant difference between low discount frequency group (1.08) and high discount frequency group (1.96) (F1,623=225.710, p<.01). Also participants’ frequency perception between two groups was significantly different (F1,623=418.388, p<.01). Checking the manipulation of benefit change was two step approach. First, whether participants recognized benefit change or not was asked. Second, those who recognized a given benefit change were led to questions associated with their objective and subjective perceptions on the given level of manipulation. Of the participants, 22.2% (i.e., 139 of 625) recognized the change. High benefit group answered there was a decrease in product size by 3.45oz and low benefit group indicated a decrease by 2.38oz (F1, 137 = 8.178, p<.01). In addition, with regard to participants’ perception on a given amount of benefit change, there was a significant difference between two groups (F1,137=2/.618, p<.01). 36 Table 2-1: Correlation Matrix Knowledge Deal Knowledge Deal .837 -.127** Lower 95% CI Upper 95% CI -.203 -.049 Quantity PRE PCE Certainty Similarity Household Household Size Income .016 .462 .122** -.037 Lower 95% CI Upper 95% CI .044 .199 -.115 .042 PRE .026 -.160** .024 Lower 95% CI Upper 95% CI -.053 .104 -.235 -.083 -.055 .102 PCE .046 -.024 -.039 .072 Lower 95% CI Upper 95% CI -.033 .124 -.102 .055 -.117 .040 -.006 .150 Certainty .032 .058 .102* -.175** .031 Lower 95% CI Upper 95% CI -.047 .110 -.021 .136 .024 .179 -.250 -.098 -.048 .109 .086* .064 -.050 -.007 .000 .017 Lower 95% CI Upper 95% CI .008 .163 -.015 .142 -.128 .029 -.085 .071 -.078 .078 -.062 .095 Household Size -.048 .024 .027 -.027 -.041 .052 .025 Lower 95% CI Upper 95% CI -.126 .031 -.055 .102 -.052 .105 -.105 .052 -.119 .038 -.027 .130 -.054 .103 Household Income -.012 -.118** .032 -.041 -.063 .023 -.043 .272** Lower 95% CI Upper 95% CI -.090 .066 -.195 -.040 -.047 .110 -.119 .038 -.141 .016 -.056 .101 -.121 .036 .198 .343 Quantity Similarity . . . . . . . **. Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed). *. Correlation is significant at the 0.05 level (2-tailed). Notes: Correlations are in the lower triangle. Shared variances are in the upper triangle. AVE is on the diagonal. 37 Assessment of the Measures. Table 2-1 indicates there are no signle measure which has a correlation overlapping 1 with other variables. Table 2-2 presents a measurement model estimated by CFA. It shows a good fit between the model and the data (CFI=.974; SRMR=.036; RMSEA=.075) (Hu and Bentler, 1999). Acceptable level of reliability and validity were found for both category knowledge (AVE=.837, CR=.911, Cronbach’s alpha=.901) and deal proneness (AVE=.462, CR=.835, Cronbach’s alpha=.880). In addition, AVE was greater than its shared variances. Table 2-3 shows descriptive information of measures. Table 2-2: Measurement Model λ Category Knowledge (CR=.911; AVE=.837)  Rate your overall knowledge of “ground coffee”, as compared to the average consumer.  Please check the scale that best describes your familiarity with “ground coffee”. Deal Proneness (CR=.835; AVE=.462)  If a product is on sale, that can be a reason for me to buy it.  When I buy a brand that is on sale, I feel that I am getting a good deal.  I have favorite brand, but most of time I buy the brand that is on sale.  One should try to buy the brand that is on sale.  I am more likely to buy brands that are on sale.  Compared to most people, I am more likely to buy brands that are on sale. Goodness-of-Fit Indexes CFI=.974; SRMR=.036; RMSEA=.075 38 1.0 .82 .63 .65 .73 .73 .87 .85 Table 2-3: Descriptive Information of Measures N Mini Max Mean SD Quantity 625 1.00 6.00 1.810 1.113 PRE 625 .00 570.00 41.4906 80.985 PCE 625 .00 2.00 1.013 .904 Similarity 625 1 7 5.16 1.379 Certainty 625 1 7 4.20 1.542 Household Size 625 1 5 2.59 1.196 Household Income 622 1 14 6.09 3.417 Knowledge 625 1.00 7.00 4.295 1.513 Deal Proneness 625 1.00 7.00 4.755 1.124 Valid N 622 Assessment of the Main Effects. Multivariate tests revealed significant main effects of benefit change (Wilks’λ=.984, p < .001, discount depth (Wilks’λ=.954, p < .001), and discount depth (Wilks’λ=.910, p < .001). In addition, a significant interaction between discount depth and frequency was found (Wilks’λ=.982, p < .005). Table 2-4 presents means, standard deviations, and sample sizes for all four pricing groups. Given the fact that overall multivariate tests of discount depth, discount frequency, and an interaction between discount depth and frequency were significant (Table2-5), univariate tests of such each mediator and a predicted variable as well as between-subjects tests of an interaction effect on those variables are discussed. Table 2-6, 2-7 and Figure3 present the significance of each test and directions of relationships (also see Table 2-4). An increase in benefit change caused a decrease in PCE (F1,617=8.191, p<.01) which would indicate that those who recognize any changes in product size will deliberately search and compare price information across products (i.e., interitem search) at the product category level. Discount depth was positively associated with quantity (F1,617=28.893, p<.01). Discount frequency showed a significant negative relationship with quantity (F1,617=30.934, p<.01) and a significant positive relationship with similarity (F1,617=28.125, p<.01). 39 Table 2-4: Descriptive Statistics SD 95% CI BEF Mean Quan Low 1.847 0.059 1.73; 1.964 High 1.788 0.062 1.667; 1.909 PRE Low 44.307 4.533 35.406; 53.208 High 38.423 4.693 29.206; 47.64 PCE Low 0.907 0.05 0.809; 1.006 High 1.114 0.052 1.012; 1.216 Sim Low 5.199 0.075 5.052; 5.347 High 5.126 0.078 4.973; 5.278 Quan DEP FRQ Low Low BEF Mean SD Low 1.681 0.112 High 1.807 0.117 High Low 1.471 0.116 High 1.474 0.122 High Low Low 2.487 0.122 High 2.247 0.125 High Low 1.75 0.126 High 1.623 0.128 PRE Low Low Low 49.495 8.516 High 42.735 8.917 High Low 36.659 8.812 High 33.421 9.319 High Low Low 40.382 9.319 High 38.753 9.509 High Low 50.694 9.574 High 38.783 9.78 *Quan=purchase quantity; Sim=similarity SD 95% CI SD 95% CI DEP Mean FRQ Mean Low 1.608 0.058 1.494; 1.723 Low 2.055 0.06 1.939; 2.172 High 2.027 0.063 1.904; 2.15 High 1.579 0.062 1.459; 1.7 Low 40.577 4.448 31.842; 49.312 Low 42.841 4.537 33.932; 51.75 High 42.153 4.774 32.779; 51.527 High 39.889 4.689 30.68; 49.098 Low 1.071 0.049 0.974; 1.168 Low 1.038 0.05 0.939; 1.137 High 0.95 0.053 0.847; 1.054 High 0.983 0.052 0.881; 1.085 Low 5.258 0.074 5.113; 5.402 Low 4.876 0.075 4.728; 5.023 High 5.067 0.079 4.912; 5.222 High 5.449 0.078 5.296; 5.601 95% CI Sim DEP FRQ BEF 1.462 1.901 Low Low Low 1.577 2.037 High 1.244 1.698 High Low 1.234 1.714 High 2.247 2.727 High Low Low 2.002 2.492 High 1.503 1.997 High Low 1.371 1.875 High 32.77 66.219 PCE Low Low Low 25.223 60.247 High 19.354 53.964 High Low 15.12 51.722 High 22.081 58.683 High Low Low 20.08 57.427 High 31.892 69.497 High Low 19.576 57.99 High 40 Mean 5.253 4.904 5.506 5.368 4.566 4.781 5.472 5.449 1.055 1.145 0.953 1.132 0.816 1.137 0.806 1.043 SD 0.141 0.148 0.146 0.154 0.154 0.158 0.159 0.162 0.094 0.099 0.098 0.103 0.103 0.105 0.106 0.108 95% CI 4.976 5.53 4.614 5.194 5.219 5.793 5.065 5.672 4.263 4.869 4.471 5.09 5.161 5.784 5.131 5.767 0.87 1.24 0.951 1.339 0.761 1.145 0.929 1.334 0.613 1.019 0.93 1.344 0.597 1.014 0.831 1.256 Table 2-5: Multivariate Tests Wilks’ λ F4,488 Sig. Partial Eta Squared b Intercept .050 2918.666 0.000 .950 BEF .984 2.552b .038 .016 b DEP .954 7.393 .000 .046 FRQ .910 15.194b .000 .090 BEF*DEP .991 1.394b .235 .009 b BEF*FRQ 1.000 .018 .999 .000 DEP*FRQ .982 2.871b .022 .018 b BEF*DEP*FRQ .996 .542 .705 .004 a. Design: Intercept + BEF + DEP + FRQ + BEF * DEP + BEF * FRQ + DEP * FRQ + BEF * DEP * FRQ b. Exact statistic c. Computed using alpha = .05 Powerc 1.000 .722 .997 1.000 .436 .054 .779 .182 In addition, there was a significant interaction effect between discount depth and frequency on quantity (F1,617=5.678, p<.05). The positive relationship between discount depth and quantity was significantly attenuated by an increase in discount frequency, while an increase in discount depth strengthened the negative relationship between discount frequency and quantity. Another significant effect between discount depth and frequency was found for similarity (F1,617=3.929, p<.05). That is, the positive relationship between discount frequency and similarity was significantly strengthened by an increase in discount depth. Table 2-6: Between-Subjects Tests for an Interaction between DEP and FRQ DEP*FRQ Quantity Error PRE Error PCE Error Similarity Error MS 6.451 1.136 10229.903 6600.284 .001 .810 7.116 1.811 F1,617 Sig. Partial Eta Squared Powera 5.678 .017 .009 .662 1.550 .214 .003 .237 .002 .969 .000 .050 3.929 .048 .006 .508 41 Table 2-7: Univariate Test BEF Quantity Contrast Error PRE Contrast Error PCE Contrast Error Similarity Contrast Error DEP Quantity Contrast Error PRE Contrast Error PCE Contrast Error Similarity Contrast Error FRQ Quantity Contrast Error PRE Contrast Error PCE Contrast Error Similarity Contrast Error MS .549 1.136 5368.378 6600.284 6.634 .810 .840 1.811 F1,617 .483 Sig. Partial Eta Squared Powera .487 .001 .107 .813 .367 .001 .147 8.191 .004 .013 .815 .464 .496 .001 .104 MS F1,617 Sig. Partial Eta Squared Powera 27.147 23.893 .000 .037 .998 1.136 384.935 .058 .809 .000 .057 6600.284 2.253 2.782 .096 .004 .384 .810 5.635 3.111 .078 .005 .421 1.811 MS F1,617 Sig. Partial Eta Squared Powera 35.147 30.934 .000 .048 1.000 1.136 1350.971 .205 .651 .000 .074 6600.284 .464 .573 .450 .001 .118 .810 50.942 28.125 .000 .044 1.000 1.811 42 Figure 3: 2x2 Mean Plots for Discount DEP, Discount FRQ, and BEF Quantity PRE PCE Similarity 43 Assessment of the Mediation Effects. Table 2-8 presents results of moderated mediation tests. The positive and significant effect of discount depth on quantity was attenuated by an increase in benefit change. That is its effect was reduced from .529 (t=4.292, p<.01) to .253 (t=2.001, p<.05). The negative association between discount frequency and purchase quantity also was weakened by an increasing level of benefit change. The strength of such relationship changed from -.514 (t=4.181, p<.01) to -.443 (t=-.3.508, p<.01). Table 2-8: Tests of Mediation Effects DIRECT AND INDIRECT EFFECTS Conditional Direct effects of DEP on Quantity at values of the moderator (BEF) BEF Effect SE t p LLCI Low .529 .123 4.292 .000 .287 High .253 .127 2.001 .046 .005 Conditional Indirect effect of DEP on Quantity at values of the moderator (BEF) Effect Boot SE BootLLCI BootULCI .002 .007 -.006 .033 PRE at Low BEF .002 .007 -.005 .029 PRE at High BEF .008 .012 -.010 .042 PCE at Low BEF .002 .007 -.006 .026 PCE at High BEF Similarity at Low .014 .014 -.006 .052 BEF Similarity at High .0014 .0077 -.0089 .0276 BEF Indirect effect of highest order interaction Effect Boot SE BootLLCI BootULCI -.001 .010 -.023 .017 PRE -.006 .013 -.046 .008 PCE -.012 .015 -.060 .006 Similarity INDEX OF MODERATED MEDIATION Index Boot SE BootLLCI BootULCI -.001 .010 -.023 .017 PRE -.006 .013 -.046 .008 PCE -.012 .015 -.060 .006 Similarity 44 ULCI .772 .502 Table 2-8: (cont’d) DIRECT AND INDIRECT EFFECTS Conditional Direct effects of FRQ on Quantity at values of the moderator (BEF) BEF Effect SE t p LLCI -.514 .123 -4.181 .000 -.756 Low -.443 .126 -3.508 .001 -.692 High Conditional Indirect effect of FRQ on Quantity at values of the moderator (BEF) Effect Boot SE BootLLCI BootULCI .001 .008 -.009 .028 PRE at Low BEF -.004 .008 -.035 .004 PRE at High BEF .004 .009 -.006 .034 PCE at Low BEF .003 .009 -.007 .046 PCE at High BEF Similarity at Low -.008 .018 -.049 .024 BEF Similarity at High -.008 .019 -.051 .028 BEF Indirect effect of highest order interaction Effect Boot SE BootLLCI BootULCI -.005 .012 -.052 .006 PRE -.001 .012 -.038 .015 PCE -.001 .009 -.029 .012 Similarity INDEX OF MODERATED MEDIATION Index Boot SE BootLLCI BootULCI -.005 .012 -.052 .006 PRE -.001 .012 -.038 .015 PCE -.001 .009 -.029 .012 Similarity ULCI -.273 -.195 However, regardless of the level of benefit change, all of indirect effects were not significant. 95% CI of index of moderated mediation of the model with discount depth for each mediator is (1) PRE: -0.023 ~ 0.017, (2) PCE: -0.046 ~ 0.008, and (3) similarity: -0.060 ~ 0.006. 95% CI of index moderated mediation of the model with discount frequency for each mediator is (1) PCE: -0.052 ~ 0.006, (2) PRE: -0.038 ~ 0.015, and (3) similarity: -0.029 ~ 0.012. 45 Discussion Table 5 shows the results of Study 2 hypotheses testing. First, consumers who recognize changed benefit in their preferred product may conduct thorough price search at the category level. Second, direct effects of discount depth and frequency revealed the same directional effects with those from Study1. Third, an interaction between discount depth and frequency was found for purchase quantity. That is, if high depth discount is frequently and regularly provided, its positive impact on purchase quantity will be reduced. Furthermore, a firm should expect larger sales reduction when high discount is provided than when low discount is provided, provided that a firm is planning to increase discount frequency over time. Study1 and 2 examined how different types of price discount influence stockpiling behavior and how such effects may vary when product benefit is changed. However, little is known about whether those effects would vary with an introduction of new product. Thus, Study3 will investigate the relationships between types of discount and purchase quantity under the condition in which a new product is launched. 46 STUDY 3 The primary goal of Study 3 is to replicate main and mediating effects tested in Study 1 and to introduce the second moderating effect. A major difference from Study 2 is, in Study 3, a new product which is under the established brand (i.e., consumers’ preferred brand) is added in the experiment and serves as a moderator. Unlike a change in product size in Study 2, an introduction of new product under consumers’ preferred brand is relatively easier to notice. In other words, a launched new product would suffice to catch consumers’ attention at a category level. If it serves as a wake-up call for consumers, they would be motivated to be more rational on their purchase decision making. However, consumers may not be motivated to update their price knowledge, if consumers have high satisfaction with the established product, the new product requires them to change their behavior to use it, and they are risk averse (i.e., high possibility to have cognitive dissonance). Thus, in general, the presence of new product may make consumers more committed to the established product and more strive to leverage benefits of a sales promotion by stockpiling. H10 : A new product moderates the effects of depth/frequency to the extent that the effects of both discounts are amplified when a new product under the same brand with an established product is introduced. Research Design The experiment of Study3 employs 2 (high vs. low discount depth) x 2 (high vs. low discount frequency) x 2 (with vs. without new product) between-subject design. A major difference from previous two studies is an introduction of new product. Study3 retains manipulations of discount depth and frequency from Study1. 47 For Study 3, a new product was added into the second shopping task as an alternative purchase option. This new product is under the same preferred brand name provided by a participant. Its difference from the established product under the same brand is a product benefit (i.e., brew ready packet). The price of new product is set at $7.44 which is slightly higher than the regular price $7.15. In terms of means of data analysis, hypotheses testing is conducted by following the exact same process of Study 2 with the addition of the new product introduction as a moderator. That is, in order to test the moderated mediation, the model8 template in PROCESS macro was used. Lastly, the cell sizes of Study3 are in the range of 49 to 139 and total sample is 720. Results Manipulation Checks. Indicated average discount rates between high discount group (33.74%) and low discount depth group (16.58%) were significantly different (F1,718=243.973, p<.01). The difference between average perceptions on a given discount rate between two groups were also significant (F1,718=203.541, p<.01). Indicated number of discounts showed a significant difference between low discount frequency group (1.11) and high discount frequency group (1.89) (F1,718=215.608, p<.01). Also participants’ frequency perception between two groups was significantly different (F1,718=381.091, p<.01). Assessment of the Measures. Table 3-1 indicates there are no signle measure which has a correlation overlapping 1 with other variables. Table 3-2 presents a measurement model estimated by CFA. It shows a good fit between the model and the data (CFI=.981; SRMR=.034; RMSEA=.067) (Hu and Bentler, 1999). Acceptable level of reliability and validity were found for 48 both category knowledge (AVE=.831, CR=.907, Cronbach’s alpha=.896) and deal proneness (AVE=.440, CR=.822, Cronbach’s alpha=.867). In addition, AVE was greater than its shared variances. Table 3-3 shows descriptive information of measures. 49 Table 3-1: Correlation Matrix Knowledge Deal Knowledge Deal Lower 95% CI Upper 95% CI Quantity Lower 95% CI Upper 95% CI PRE Lower 95% CI Upper 95% CI PCE Lower 95% CI Upper 95% CI Certainty Lower 95% CI Upper 95% CI Similarity Lower 95% CI Upper 95% CI Household Size Lower 95% CI Upper 95% CI Household Income Lower 95% CI Upper 95% CI .831 -.008 Quantity PRE PCE Certainty Similarity Household Size Household Income .000 .440 -0.081 0.065 .091* -.013 0.018 0.163 -0.086 0.060 . .068 -.136** -.012 -0.005 0.140 -0.207 -0.064 -0.085 0.061 .049 -.111** -.008 .061 -0.024 0.122 -0.183 -0.038 -0.081 0.065 -0.012 0.133 .118** .058 .119** 0.045 0.189 -0.015 0.131 0.046 0.190 -0.301 -0.163 -0.075 0.071 . . -.233** -.002 . .063 .025 -.036 -.049 -.043 .118** -0.010 0.135 -0.048 0.098 -0.109 0.037 -0.122 0.024 -0.116 0.030 0.045 0.189 . .032 -.043 .061 .023 -.043 .061 .054 -0.041 0.105 -0.116 0.030 -0.012 0.133 -0.050 0.096 -0.116 0.030 -0.012 0.133 -0.019 0.127 .015 -.174** .141** -.007 -.005 .063 .062 .258** -0.058 0.088 -0.244 -0.102 0.069 0.212 -0.080 0.066 -0.078 0.068 -0.010 0.135 -0.011 0.134 0.188 0.325 . **. Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed). *. Correlation is significant at the 0.05 level (2-tailed). Notes: Correlations are in the lower triangle. Shared variances are in the upper triangle. AVE is on the diagonal. 50 . Table 3-2: Measurement Model λ Category Knowledge (CR=.907; AVE=.831)  Rate your overall knowledge of “ground coffee”, as compared to the average consumer.  Please check the scale that best describes your familiarity with “ground coffee”. Deal Proneness (CR=.822; AVE=.440)  If a product is on sale, that can be a reason for me to buy it.  When I buy a brand that is on sale, I feel that I am getting a good deal.  I have favorite brand, but most of time I buy the brand that is on sale.  One should try to buy the brand that is on sale.  I am more likely to buy brands that are on sale.  Compared to most people, I am more likely to buy brands that are on sale. .81 1.0 .56 .62 .72 .73 .86 .84 Goodness-of-Fit Indexes CFI=.981; SRMR=.034; RMSEA=.062 Table 3-3: Descriptive Information of Measures N Mini Max Mean SD Quantity 720 1.00 6.00 1.804 1.153 PRE 720 0.00 570.00 50.211 97.584 PCE 720 0.00 3.00 1.106 0.965 Similarity 720 1 7 5.063 1.356 Certainty 720 1 7 4.286 1.520 Household Size 720 1 5 2.653 1.259 Household Income 716 1 14 6.307 3.547 Knowledge 720 1.00 7.00 4.189 1.470 Deal Proneness 720 1.00 7.00 4.768 1.127 Valid N 716 Assessment of the Main Effects. Multivariate tests revealed significant main effects of new product (Wilks’λ=.986, p < .05, discount depth (Wilks’λ=.929, p < .001), and discount depth (Wilks’λ=.969, p < .01). In addition, two significant interactions between new product and discount depth (Wilks’λ=.894, p < .01) as well as new product and discount frequency 51 (Wilks’λ=.976, p < .01) were found. Table3-4 presents means, standard deviations, and sample sizes for all six pricing groups. Given the fact that overall multivariate tests of new product, discount depth, discount frequency, and two interactions were significant (Table 3-5), univariate tests of such each mediator and a predicted variable as well as between-subjects tests of interaction effects on those variables are discussed. Table 3-6 and Figure 4 present the significance of each test and directions of relationships (also see Table3-7). The introduction of new product was negatively associated with purchase quantity (F1,712=4.076, p<.05) and also positively with PCE (F1,712=4.256, p<.05). Discount depth showed its significant and positive relationships with quantity (F1,712=30.514, p<.01) and PCE (F1,712=19.402, p<.01). Discount frequency was show to have a negative relationship with quantity (F1,712=9.381, p<.05) and with PCE (F1,712=8.508, p<.01), and a positive relationship with similarity (F1,712=4.686, p<.05). Two significant interactions revealed that PCE is influenced by interactions between new product introduction and discount depth (F1,712=82.005, p<.01) as well as new product introduction and frequency (F1,712=13.593, p<.01). With new product introduction, an increase in discount depth increased PCE. When a low discount was available, PCE was higher without new product introduction than with new production introduction. However, with an available high discount, participants made more PCE when new product was introduced. In terms of the relationship between discount frequency and PCE, when a discount was provided in low frequency, introduction of new product made participants to make more PCE. However, with high discount frequency, the less amount of PCE was made by participants without new product introduction than with new product introduction. 52 Table 3-4: Descriptive Statistics SD 95% CI NP Mean Quan w/o 1.837 0.051 1.738; 1.937 w/ 1.51; 1.802 1.656 0.074 PRE w/o 50.683 4.47 41.906; 59.46 w/ 48.838 6.54 35.997; 61.678 PCE w/o 1.073 0.041 0.992; 1.154 w/ 1.224 0.06 1.105; 1.342 Sim w/o 5.115 0.061 4.994; 5.235 w/ 4.966 0.09 4.789; 5.143 SD 95% CI SD 95% CI DEP Mean FRQ Mean Low 1.498 0.064 1.372; 1.625 Low 1.884 0.061 1.764; 2.005 High 1.995 0.063 1.872; 2.118 High 1.609 0.066 1.480; 1.738 Low 42.853 5.661 31.739; 53.967 Low 48.853 5.406 38.239; 59.467 High 56.667 5.542 45.786; 67.548 High 50.668 5.791 39.299; 62.037 Low 0.987 0.052 0.885; 1.09 Low 1.255 0.050 1.157; 1.353 High 1.309 0.051 1.209; 1.409 High 1.042 0.053 0.937; 1.147 Low 5.113 0.078 4.96; 5.266 Low 4.922 0.074 4.776; 5.068 High 4.967 0.076 4.818; 5.117 High 5.158 0.080 5.002; 5.315 Quan NP DEP FRQ Mean SD 95% CI Sim NP DEP FRQ Mean SD 95% CI w/o Low Low 1.619 0.094 1.434 1.803 w/o Low 5.007 0.114 4.783 5.231 5.007 1.477 0.118 1.245 1.709 High 5.205 0.143 4.923 5.486 5.205 2.396 0.096 2.207 2.584 High Low High 4.821 0.116 4.593 5.049 4.821 1.858 0.096 1.670 2.046 High 5.425 0.116 5.197 5.653 5.425 1.491 0.150 1.197 1.784 w/ Low Low w/ Low 5.055 0.181 4.699 5.41 5.055 1.407 0.144 1.123 1.69 High 5.186 0.175 4.843 5.53 5.186 2.032 0.141 1.756 2.309 High Low High 4.806 0.171 4.471 5.142 4.806 1.694 0.158 1.383 2.005 High 4.816 0.192 4.439 5.193 4.816 PRE w/o Low Low 44.640 8.289 28.367 60.914 PCE w/o Low Low 1.201 0.076 1.051 1.352 High 44.636 10.417 24.184 65.089 High 1.284 0.096 1.095 1.473 High Low 60.067 8.442 43.493 76.641 High Low 0.888 0.078 0.735 1.041 High 53.388 8.442 36.814 69.962 High 0.918 0.078 0.765 1.071 w/ Low Low 44.509 13.177 18.639 70.379 w/ Low Low 1.091 0.122 0.852 1.329 High 37.627 12.722 12.649 62.605 High 0.373 0.117 0.143 0.603 High Low 46.194 12.411 21.827 70.56 High Low 1.839 0.114 1.614 2.063 High 67.02 13.96 39.612 94.429 High 1.592 0.129 1.339 1.845 *Quan=purchase quantity; Sim=similarity; w/o=without; w/=with 53 Table 3-5: Multivariate Tests Wilks’ λ F4,7/9 Sig. Partial Eta Squared b Intercept .058 2878.312 0.000 .942 NP .986 2.573b .037 .014 b DEP .929 13.477 .000 .071 FRQ .969 5.585b .000 .031 NP*DEP .894 21.082b .000 .106 b NP*FRQ .976 4.294 .002 .024 DEP*FRQ .992 1.498b .201 .008 b NP*DEP*FRQ .992 1.401 .232 .008 a. Design: Intercept + NP + DEP + FRQ + NP * DEP + NP * FRQ + DEP * FRQ + NP * DEP * FRQ b. Exact statistic c. Computed using alpha = .05 Powerc 1.000 .727 1.000 .979 1.000 .930 .467 .439 Table 3-6: Univariate Tests NP Quantity Contrast Error PRE Contrast Error PCE Contrast Error Similarity Contrast Error DEP Quantity Contrast Error PRE Contrast Error PCE Contrast Error Similarity Contrast Error MS 5.011 1.230 518.202 9549.762 3.456 .812 3.358 1.807 F1,712 4.076 Sig. Partial Eta Squared Powera .044 .006 .522 .054 .816 .000 .056 4.256 .039 .006 .540 1.858 .173 .003 .275 MS F1,712 Sig. Partial Eta Squared Powera 37.517 30.514 .000 .041 1.000 1.230 29036.801 3.041 .082 .004 .414 9549.762 15.757 19.402 .000 .027 .993 .812 3.240 1.793 .181 .003 .267 1.807 54 Table 3-6: (cont’d) FRQ Quantity Contrast Error PRE Contrast Error PCE Contrast Error Similarity Contrast Error MS 11.534 1.230 501.511 9549.762 6.910 .812 8.468 1.807 F1,712 Sig. Partial Eta Squared Powera 9.381 .002 .013 .864 .053 .819 .000 .056 8.508 .004 .012 .830 4.686 .031 .007 .580 Table 3-7: Between-Subjects Tests for an Interactions NP*DEP MS F1,712 Sig. Partial Eta Squared Powera Quantity 1.031 .839 .360 .001 .150 Error 875.416 PRE 452.667 .047 .828 .000 .055 Error 6799430.794 PCE 66.599 82.005 .000 .103 1.000 Error 578.241 Similarity 4.052 2.242 .135 .003 .321 Error 1286.576 NP*FRQ MS F1,712 Sig. Partial Eta Squared Powera Quantity .624 .508 .476 .001 .110 Error 875.416 PRE 4046.649 .424 .515 .001 .100 Error 6799430.794 PCE 11.039 13.593 .000 .019 .957 Error 578.241 Similarity 4.143 2.293 .130 .003 .327 Error 1286.576 55 Figure 4: 2x2 Mean Plots for Discount DEP, Discount FRQ, and NP Quantity PRE PCE Similarity Assessment of the Mediation Effects. Table 3-8 presents results of moderated mediation tests. The introduction of new product decreased the positive direct effect of discount depth on quantity. That 56 is, its effect was reduced from .527 (t=5.186, p<.01) to .433 (t=2.785, p<.01). While the negative association between discount frequency and purchase quantity, -.303 (t=-2.950, p<.01) without new product introduction was significant, new product introduction made the relationship insignificant as well as weaker, -.187 (t=-1.217, p>.10). With regard to moderated mediation effects, regardless of the presence of new product, all of indirect effects were not significant. 95% CI of index moderated mediation of the model with discount depth for each mediator is (1) PRE: -.008 ~ .023, (2) PCE: -.133 ~ .107, and (3) similarity: -.002 ~ .069. 95% CI of index moderated mediation of the model with discount frequency for each mediator is (1) PRE: -.0096 ~ .0188, (2) PCE: -.0426 ~ .0702, and (3) similarity: -.0044 ~ .0614. Table 3-8: Tests of Moderated Mediation Effects DIRECT AND INDIRECT EFFECTS Conditional Direct effects of DEP on Quantity at values of the moderator (NP) NP Effect SE t p LLCI Without .527 .102 5.186 .000 .328 With .433 .156 2.785 .006 .128 Conditional Indirect effect of DEP on Quantity at values of the moderator (NP) Effect Boot SE BootLLCI BootULCI -.001 .006 -.019 .008 PRE at w/o NP -.001 .006 -.019 .007 PRE at w/ NP .004 .015 -.026 .036 PCE at w/o BEF -.013 .046 -.099 .083 PCE at w/ BEF Similarity at w/o -.001 .008 -.017 .015 NP .018 .015 -.001 .061 Similarity at w/ NP Indirect effect of highest order interaction Effect Boot SE PRE PCE Similarity .001 -.017 .019 BootLLCI BootULCI .006 .061 .016 -.008 -.133 -.002 57 .023 .107 .069 ULCI .727 .738 Table 3-8: (cont’d) INDEX OF MODERATED MEDIATION Index Boot SE BootLLCI BootULCI PRE PCE Similarity .001 .006 -.008 .023 -.017 .061 -.133 .107 .019 .016 -.002 .069 DIRECT AND INDIRECT EFFECTS Conditional Direct effects of FRQ on Quantity at values of the moderator (NP) NP Effect SE t p LLCI -.303 .103 -2.950 .003 -.504 Without -.187 .153 -1.217 .224 -.488 With Conditional Indirect effect of FRQ on Quantity at values of the moderator (NP) Effect Boot SE BootLLCI BootULCI .000 .003 -.010 .005 PRE at w/o NP .000 .005 -.008 .014 PRE at w/ NP .000 .004 -.010 .008 PCE at w/o BEF .010 .026 -.040 .066 PCE at w/ BEF Similarity at w/o -.020 .015 -.063 .002 NP -.008 .012 -0.049 0.006 Similarity at w/ NP Indirect effect of highest order interaction Effect Boot SE BootLLCI BootULCI PRE PCE Similarity PRE PCE Similarity ULCI -.101 0.114 .000 .006 -.010 .019 .010 .027 -.043 .070 .012 .015 -.004 .061 INDEX OF MODERATED MEDIATION Index Boot SE BootLLCI BootULCI .0004 .0061 -.0096 .0188 .0101 .0266 -.0426 .0702 .0122 .0154 -.0044 .0614 Discussion Study3 examined and compared proposed direct and indirect relationships introduced from Study across two situations, without new product introduction vs. with new product introduction. Table 5 is the summary of results. First, when a firm introduces new product under the same brand, an 58 increase in discount depth would make consumers less motivated to search and compare prices at the category level opposed to its negative relationship without it. Second, it would be expected for firm’s new product introduction to lead to narrower price search and knowledge at the category level, and to change the positive association between discount frequency and PCE into strongly negative association. Tests of moderated mediation found no significant indirect effects of discount depth or frequency on purchase quantity regardless of the presence of new product. Across two situations, discount depth showed its significant and positive impact on purchase quantity. However, new product introduction made the negative influence of discount frequency on purchase quantity insignificant despite its same directional influence. Study3 examined how the relationships established in Study1 and 2 would vary across two different situations (i.e., new product introduction). Then would new competitor’s entrance (i.e., new brand) would make changes in such relationships? Thus, Study4 is to examine how new brand introduction would influence direct effects of discount on purchase quantity. 59 STUDY 4 The objectives of Study 4 is similar with ones of Study 3. The only difference from Study 3 is that this current study proposes the introduction of a new product under new brand name as a moderator. Unlike a new product under the same preferred brand name, new brand would be more challenged to catch consumers. Unless consumers perceive it as a better solution, it will be ignored. Furthermore it may encourage consumers more strive to leverage benefits of a sales promotion by stockpiling and make a given promotion to their preferred brand more attractive. H11 : A new brand moderates the effects of depth/frequency to the extent that the effects of both discounts are amplified when a new brand is introduced. Research Design The experiment of Study4 employs 2 (high vs. low discount depth) x 2 (high vs. low discount frequency) x 2 (with vs. without new brand) between-subject design. Unlike Study3, Study4 introduces a ground coffee product under new brand. Study4 retails manipulations of discount depth and frequency from Study1. For Study4, a new brand is introduced as an alternative purchase option in the second shopping task. Like Café Vale, this new brand is hypothetical, Venezia Espresso. The price of new brand is set at $7.44 which is the same regular price of new product in Study3. In terms of means of data analysis, hypotheses testing is conducted by following the exact same process of Study2 with the addition of new brand introduction as the moderating effect. That is, in order to test the moderated mediation, the template of model8 in PROCESS macro was used. Lastly, cell sizes of Study4 are in the range of 52 to 139 and total sample is 713. 60 Results Manipulation Checks. Indicated average discount rates between high discount group (33.18%) and low discount depth group (17.14%) were significantly different (F1,711=186.818, p<.01). The difference between average perceptions on a given discount rate between two groups were also significant (F1,711=158.006, p<.01). Indicated number of discounts showed a significant difference between low discount frequency group (1.11) and high discount frequency group (1.94) (F1,711=230.943, p<.01). Also participants’ frequency perception between two groups was significantly different (F1,711=444.794, p<.01). 61 Table 4-1: Correlation Matrix Knowledge Deal Knowledge Deal Lower 95% CI Upper 95% CI Quantity Lower 95% CI Upper 95% CI PRE Lower 95% CI Upper 95% CI PCE Lower 95% CI Upper 95% CI Certainty Lower 95% CI Upper 95% CI Similarity Lower 95% CI Upper 95% CI Household Size Lower 95% CI Upper 95% CI Household Income Lower 95% CI Upper 95% CI .805 -.034 Quantity PRE PCE Certainty Similarity Household Size Household Income .002 .461 -.107 .040 .111** -0.036 .038 .183 -.109 .038 .132** -.150** -.058 .059 .203 -.221 -.077 -.131 .015 .000 -.94* .031 .109** -.073 .073 -.166 -.021 -.043 .104 .036 .181 .043 .032 .89* -.031 .116 -.042 .105 .016 .161 -.325 -.188 -.104 .043 .029 .045 -.067 -.008 -.04 .127** -.045 .102 -.029 .118 -.140 .006 -.081 .065 -.113 .034 .054 .199 .081* .001 .087* .016 -.032 .072 .039 .008 .154 -.072 .074 .014 .159 -.057 .089 -.105 .042 -.001 .145 -.035 .112 .036 -.121** .105** -.023 -.018 .100** 0.056 .278** -.038 .109 -.193 -.048 .032 .177 -.096 .051 -.091 .055 .027 .172 -.017 .129 .209 .344 . . . -.258** -.031 . . . **. Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed). *. Correlation is significant at the 0.05 level (2-tailed). Notes: Correlations are in the lower triangle. Shared variances are in the upper triangle. AVE is on the diagonal. 62 . Assessment of the Measures. Table 4-1 indicates there are no signle measure which has a correlation overlapping 1 with other variables. Table 4-2 presents a measurement model estimated by CFA. It shows a good fit between the model and the data (CFI=.978; SRMR=.035; RMSEA=.068) (Hu and Bentler, 1999). Acceptable level of reliability and validity were found for both category knowledge (AVE=.805, CR=.891, Cronbach’s alpha=.889) and deal proneness (AVE=.461, CR=.834, Cronbach’s alpha=.879). In addition, AVE was greater than its shared variances. Table 4-3 shows descriptive information of measures. Table 4-2: Measurement Model λ Category Knowledge (CR=.891; AVE=.805)  Rate your overall knowledge of “ground coffee”, as compared to the average consumer.  Please check the scale that best describes your familiarity with “ground coffee”. Deal Proneness (CR=.834; AVE=.461)  If a product is on sale, that can be a reason for me to buy it.  When I buy a brand that is on sale, I feel that I am getting a good deal.  I have favorite brand, but most of time I buy the brand that is on sale.  One should try to buy the brand that is on sale.  I am more likely to buy brands that are on sale.  Compared to most people, I am more likely to buy brands that are on sale. Goodness-of-Fit Indexes CFI=.978; SRMR=.035; RMSEA=.068 63 .85 .94 0.59 0.63 0.73 0.75 0.88 0.86 Table 4-3: Descriptive Information of Measures N Mini Max Mean SD Quantity 713 1.00 6.00 1.889 1.236 PRE 713 0.00 570.00 53.993 102.355 PCE 713 0.00 3.00 1.097 .964 Similarity 713 1 7 5.11 1.383 Certainty 713 1 7 4.19 1.521 Household Size 713 1 5 2.66 1.263 Household Income 709 1 14 6.21 3.547 Knowledge 713 1.00 7.00 4.223 1.445 Deal Proneness 713 1.00 7.00 4.732 1.169 Valid N 709 Assessment of the Main Effects. Multivariate tests revealed significant main effects of discount depth (Wilks’λ=.898, p <.01), and discount frequency (Wilks’λ=.944, p <.01). In addition, two significant interactions between new brand and discount depth (Wilks’λ=.905, p <.01) as well as discount depth and discount frequency (Wilks’λ=.975, p <.01) were found. Table 4-4 presents means, standard deviations, and sample sizes for all six pricing groups. Given the fact that overall multivariate tests of new product, discount depth, discount frequency, and two interactions were significant (Table4-5), univariate tests of such each mediator and a predicted variable as well as between-subjects tests of interaction effects on those variables are discussed. Table 4-6, 4-7 and Figure5 present the significance of each test and directions of relationships. Discount depth had positive relationships with quantity (F1,705=48.590, p<.01), PRE (F1,705=11.346, p<.01) and PCE (F1,705=12.225, p<.01), and a negative relationship with similarity (F1,705=6.837, p<.01). Discount frequency was found to be negatively associated with quantity (F1,705=22.271, p<.01) but positively associated with similarity (F1,705=19.851, p<.01). 64 Table 4-4: Descriptive Statistics SD 95% CI SD 95% CI SD 95% CI NB Mean DEP Mean FRQ Mean Quan w/o 1.837 .054 1.732; 1.943 Low 1.544 .070 1.407; 1.682 Low 2.107 .067 1.976; 2.238 w/ 1.923 .080 1.766; 2.076 High 2.216 .066 2.086; 2.345 High 1.653 .069 1.517; 1.789 PRE w/o 50.683 4.654 41.546; 58.820 Low 41.077 6.053 29.192; 52.962 Low 52.772 5.765 41.454; 64.090 w/ 59.490 6.895 45.953; 73.027 High 69.096 5.705 57.895; 80.297 High 57.401 5.997 45.627; 69.174 PCE w/o 1.073 .042 .990; 1.156 Low .993 .055 .885; 1.101 Low 1.140 .052 1.037; 1.243 w/ 1.177 .063 1.054; 1.300 High 1.257 .052 1.155; 1.359 High 1.110 .055 1.003; 1.217 Sim w/o 5.115 .062 4.994; 5.235 Low 5.267 .080 5.110; 5.424 Low 4.878 .076 4.728; 5.028 w/ 5.132 .091 4.953; 2.311 High 4.979 .076 4.831; 5.128 High 5.369 .079 5.213; 5.524 Quan NB DEP FRQ Mean SD 95% CI Sim NB DEP FRQ Mean SD 95% CI .100 1.423 1.815 w/o Low Low 1.619 w/o Low 5.007 .114 4.783 5.231 5.007 .125 1.231 1.724 5.205 .144 4.923 5.486 5.205 High 1.477 .102 2.196 2.595 High Low 2.396 High 4.821 .116 4.593 5.049 4.821 .102 1.659 2.058 5.425 .116 5.197 5.654 5.425 High 1.858 .162 1.418 2.053 w/ Low Low 1.736 w/ Low 5.434 .185 5.071 5.797 5.434 1.346 .163 1.026 1.667 5.423 .187 5.057 5.790 5.423 High .157 2.370 2.987 High Low 2.679 High 4.250 .180 3.897 4.603 4.250 .156 1.624 2.236 5.421 .178 5.071 5.771 5.421 High 1.930 PRE w/o Low Low 44.640 8.628 27.700 61.581 PCE w/o Low 1.201 .078 1.047 1.355 1.201 1.284 .099 1.090 1.478 1.284 High 44.636 10.844 23.346 65.927 High Low 60.067 8.788 42.814 77.321 High .888 .080 .731 1.045 .888 .918 .080 .761 1.075 .918 High 53.388 8.788 36.134 70.642 w/ Low Low 39.434 13.973 12.000 66.868 w/ Low .755 .127 .505 1.004 .755 .731 .128 .479 .983 .731 High 35.596 14.107 7.899 63.293 High Low 66.946 13.594 40.257 93.636 High 1.714 .124 1.472 1.957 1.714 1.509 .123 1.268 1.749 1.509 High 95.982 13.474 69.528 122.437 *Quan=purchase quantity; Sim=similarity; w/o=without; w/=with 65 Table 4-5: Multivariate Tests Wilks’ λ F4,702 Sig. Partial Eta Squared Powerc Intercept .058 2827.127b 0.000 .942 1.000 NB .995 .928b .447 .005 .296 b DEP .898 20.001 .000 .102 1.000 FRQ .944 10.406b .000 .056 1.000 NB*DEP .905 18.320b .000 .095 1.000 b NB*FRQ .994 1.053 .379 .006 .334 DEP*FRQ .975 4.416b .002 .025 .937 b NB*DEP*FRQ .993 1.208 .306 .007 .381 a. Design: Intercept + NB + DEP + FRQ + NB * DEP + NB * FRQ + DEP * FRQ + NB * DEP * FRQ b. Exact statistic c. Computed using alpha = .05 Table 4-6: Univariate Tests NB Quantity Contrast Error PRE Contrast Error PCE Contrast Error Similarity Contrast Error DEP Quantity Contrast Error PRE Contrast Error PCE Contrast Error Similarity Contrast Error MS 1.085 1.386 1.085 1.386 1.085 1.386 1.085 1.386 F1,705 .783 Sig. Partial Eta Squared Powera .377 .001 .143 .783 .377 .001 .143 .783 .377 .001 .143 .783 .377 .001 .143 MS F1,705 Sig. Partial Eta Squared Powera 67.344 48.590 .000 .064 1.000 1.386 117414.320 11.346 .001 .016 .920 10348.437 10.463 12.225 .001 .017 .937 .856 12.393 6.837 .009 .010 .743 1.813 66 Table 4-6: (cont’d) FRQ Quantity Contrast Error PRE Contrast Error PCE Contrast Error Similarity Contrast Error MS F1,705 Sig. Partial Eta Squared Powera 30.866 22.271 .000 .031 .997 1.386 3204.364 .310 .578 .000 .086 10348.437 .128 .149 .699 .000 .067 .856 35.982 19.851 .000 .027 .994 1.813 In addition, two interactions effects were found. First, interaction effects between new brand and discount depth were found for PCE (F1,705=63.808, p<.01) and similarity (F1,705=7.682, p<.01). With new brand introduction, an increase in discount depth increased PCE. When a low discount was available, PCE was higher without the presence of new brand than with it. However, with a high discount, participants made more PCE when new brand was introduced. In terms of similarity, without new brand, similarity was not significantly difference between high and low depth groups, but after, new brand was introduced, similarity decreased drastically with an increase of discount depth. Second, interaction effects between discount depth and discount frequency were found for similarity (F1,705=23.603, p<.01). The level of discount depth strengthened the relationship between discount frequency and similarity and the level discount frequency attenuated the relationship between discount depth and similarity. 67 Table 4-7: Between-Subjects Tests for an Interactions NB*DEP Quantity Error PRE Error PCE Error Similarity Error DEP*FRQ Quantity Error PRE Error PCE Error Similarity Error MS F1,705 Sig. Partial Eta Squared Powera 1.270 .917 .339 .001 .159 1.386 37952.434 3.667 .056 .005 .481 10348.437 54.612 63.808 .000 .083 1.000 .856 13.924 7.682 .006 .011 .790 1.813 MS F1,705 5.327 3.844 1.386 6415.691 .620 10348.437 .513 .600 .856 23.603 13.022 1.813 Sig. Partial Eta Squared Powera .050 .005 .499 .431 .001 .123 .439 .001 .121 .000 .018 .950 Assessment of the Mediation Effects. Table 4-8 presents results of moderated mediation tests. The introduction of new brand increased the positive direct effect of discount depth on quantity. The effect changed from .573 (t=5.265, p<.01) to .728 (t=4.331, p<.01). Also the negative association between discount frequency and purchase quantity was strengthened by new brand introduction. The effect increased from -.308 (t=-2.798, p<.01) to -.607 (t=-3.674, p<.01). With regard to moderated mediation effects, regardless of the presence of new product, all of indirect effects were not significant. 95% CI of index moderated mediation of the model with discount depth for each mediator is (1) PRE: -.083 ~ .007, (2) PCE: -.082 ~ .165, and (3) similarity: -.00 ~ .110. 95% CI of index moderated mediation of the model with discount frequency for each mediator is (1) PRE: -.054 ~ .005, (2) PCE: -.049 ~ .007, and (3) similarity: -.066 ~ .011. 68 Figure 5: 2x2 Mean Plots for Discount DEP, Discount FRQ, and NB Quantity PRE PCE Similarity 69 Table 4-8: Tests of Moderated Mediation Effects DIRECT AND INDIRECT EFFECTS Conditional Direct effects of DEP on Quantity at values of the moderator (NP) NB Effect SE t p LLCI Without .573 .109 5.265 .000 .359 With .728 .168 4.331 .000 .398 Conditional Indirect effect of DEP on Quantity at values of the moderator (NP) Effect Boot SE BootLLCI BootULCI PRE at w/o NB -.015 .012 -.047 .002 PRE at w/ NB -.033 .021 -.091 -.005 PCE at w/o BEF -.011 .018 -.052 .022 PCE at w/ BEF .028 .045 -.058 .122 Similarity at w/o NB -.001 .009 -.019 .018 Similarity at w/ NB .034 .026 .000 .110 Indirect effect of highest order interaction Effect Boot SE BootLLCI BootULCI -.018 .020 -.083 .007 PRE .039 .061 -.082 .165 PCE .035 .027 -.001 .110 Similarity PRE PCE Similarity ULCI .786 1.058 INDEX OF MODERATED MEDIATION Index Boot SE BootLLCI BootULCI -.018 .020 -.083 .007 .039 .061 -.082 .165 .035 .027 -.001 .110 DIRECT AND INDIRECT EFFECTS Conditional Direct effects of FRQ on Quantity at values of the moderator (NP) NB Effect SE t p LLCI Without -.308 .110 -2.798 .005 -.523 With -.607 .165 -3.674 .000 -.931 Conditional Indirect effect of FRQ on Quantity at values of the moderator (NP) Effect Boot SE BootLLCI BootULCI PRE at w/o NB .002 .007 -.009 .024 PRE at w/ NB -.009 .011 -.047 .004 PCE at w/o BEF .001 .005 -.006 .016 PCE at w/ BEF -.005 .010 -.039 .006 Similarity at w/o NB -.022 .018 -.069 .005 Similarity at w/ NB -.028 .025 -.096 .005 70 ULCI -.092 -.283 Table 4-8: (cont’d) Indirect effect of highest order interaction Effect Boot SE BootLLCI BootULCI PRE PCE Similarity -.011 .014 -.054 .005 -.006 .012 -.049 .007 -.007 .015 -.066 .011 INDEX OF MODERATED MEDIATION Index Boot SE BootLLCI BootULCI PRE PCE Similarity -.011 -.006 -.007 .014 .012 .015 -.054 -.049 -.066 .005 .007 .011 Discussion Study4 examined and compared proposed direct and indirect relationships introduced from Study1 across two situations, without new brand introduction vs. with new brand introduction. Table 5 summarizes the results of hypotheses testing. A significant interaction effect between new brand and discount depth on PCE suggests inherent complexity in consumer price interitem search behavior. In addition, with newly launched brand product, consumers may purchase more with the presence of a high discount. However, at the same time, negative influence of discount frequency was strengthened. 71 GENERAL DISCUSSION Across all of four experiments, a positive association between discount depth and stockpiling and a negative association between discount frequency and stockpiling are found. Regarding to the effect of discount depth on purchase quantity, consumers are not likely to miss the chance to purchase more items for future consumption. It could be posited that, for stock-up products (i.e., nonperishable and frequently purchased consumed products), if there is an increasing opportunity to purchase consumers’ preferred brand at a discounted price, they strive to minimize costs by purchasing the normal quantity on each purchase occasion which does not increase their inventory level above the normal level. Table 5: Summary of Hypotheses Testing Hypothesis Study1 Study2 Study3 Study4 DEP  PRE(H1a) + n/s n/s n/s Supported DEP  PCE(H1b) + Non supported n/s Supported Supported DEP  SIM(H2) – n/s n/s n/s n/s DEP  Q(H3) + Supported Supported Supported Supported FRQ  PRE(H4a) – n/s n/s n/s n/s FRQ  PCE(H4b) – n/s n/s Supported n/s FRQ  SIM(H5) + Supported Supported Supported Supported FRQ  Q(H6) – Supported Supported Supported Supported DEP  PRE  Q(H7a) n/s DEP  PCE  Q(H7b) n/s DEP  SIM  Q(H7c) n/s FRQ  PRE  Q(H8a) n/s FRQ  PCE  Q(H8b) n/s FRQ  SIM  Q(H8c) n/s a b BEF moderator(H9) + n/a Not support n/a n/a NP moderator(H10)a + n/a n/a Not supportb n/a a NB moderator(H11) + n/a n/a n/a Supported DEP = discount depth; FRQ = discount frequency; BEF = benefit change; NP = new product; NB = new brand; PRE = price recall error; PCE = price comparison error; SIM = perceived similarity; Q = purchase quantity; n/a = not applicable; n/s = not significant a Moderating effects are found significant only for the main effects of discount depth (frequency) on quantity. b ”Not support” means the result is significant but directionally opposite. 72 Those relationships are negatively influenced by a moderating effect of a benefit change (i.e., a reduction in product size) (Study 2) and of an introduction of new product under the same preferred brand name (Study3). In contrast, an introduction of new brand (Study 4) amplified the relationships. A greater reduction in product benefit weakened the positive relationship between discount depth and stockpiling behavior and the negative relationship between discount frequency and stockpiling. It may be posited that, when a given negative change in product size is recognized and is greater, consumers are likely to have less confidence with their purchase quantity decision making which may come from greater expected cognitive dissonance regarding to purchase quantity and lower level satisfaction with regard to the current shopping experience. New product introduction shows the same effects with benefit change and it may increase consumers’ cognitive dissonance on a forgone new alternative. However, with an introduction of new brand, a greater discount frequency more decreases purchase quantity than without the introduction. The new brand introduction strengthened the positive association of discount depth and purchase quantity. The presence of new brand might increase consumers’ anticipated regret on their current purchase quantity which will be based on discount depth and frequency. With regard to consumers’ price search behavior and price knowledge, Study 1 shows a provided deeper discount on their preferred brand more motivate their interitem price search and have more accurate price knowledge at the category level than a shallower discount. In Study 2, benefit change shows its negative association with PCE. It can be posited that benefit change encouraged consumers to search and compare prices at the category level under one important condition of consumers’ recognition of a given change occurred in their preferred brand. However, in Study 2 and 3 when a new option is introduced which can be under the same 73 preferred brand or new brand, consumers are more error-prone regarding to their price knowledge. Managerial Implications Similar with the findings of Helsen and Schmittlein (1992) and Assuncao and Meyer (1993), the increasing probability to purchase a product at a discounted price increases negatively influence the effect of discount regarding on stockpiling behavior. Overall stockpiling is positively related with discount depth and negatively with discount frequency. The negative direct effect of discount frequency on stockpiling can be attenuated by offering a deeper discount. Promotion induced stockpiling can be weakened by increasing discount frequency. These results indicate that developing a plan for sales promotions (i.e., price discounts) is inherently complex firm activity. A well-crafted discount plan will allow a firm to achieve its marketing objectives (e.g., market share) by increasing the sales promotion efficiency as well as a tactical tool to compete. For example, a firm may be want to put non stockpiling-inducing discount rate earlier and offer a discount rated in which it triggers consumers’ stockpiling followed by the previous level discount offers. In other words, by managing tactical pricing practices, firms could have a better control on timing of stockpiling and more accurate forecasts for future sales as well as profits. At first blush, discount depth and frequency seems to be sufficient elements of firm’s sales promotion action plan. However, this dissertation unveiled the greater complexity by proposing three moderators. According to Rao (1984), they are elements which all are closely related to firm pricing. A change in product size is one of common pricing practices used by a firm in order to keep the specific level of its profit margin. If the change made is beyond consumers’ threshold of just noticeable difference, its established discount plan should adjusted accordingly. Furthermore, unlike situations where product size was changed and a new product is introduced, a new brand 74 introduction amplified established direct effects of discount depth and frequency. Industries where consumers are price sensitive and not loyal to a specific brand, how a firm plans its short- and long-term sales promotions would determine its market share and sales revenue. This study also sheds some light on capturing how consumers develop price knowledge. Specifically, the study argues that, rather than a dichotomous investigation of price knowledge (i.e., short-term and long-term), firms need to understand how consumers’ price search and knowledge change over time and across pricing practices by measuring price recall and price comparison on a regular basis to better understand price knowledge evolution. Because understanding consumers’ price knowledge as it evolves over time is a significant criterion for firms’ pricing decision making (Vanhuele and Dreze 2002) in terms of the effectiveness of using price cues (e.g., Anderson, Cho, Harlam, and Simester 2008; Anderson and Simester 1998) and also managers generally overestimate the proportion of consumers who are conscious of and accurately aware of price (e.g., Urbany, Dickson, and Key 1990; Urbany, Dickson, and Sawyer 2000). Results here show that consumers’ price search behavior and, in turn, price knowledge are influenced by types of a sales promotion available at the moment of purchase. Thus if managers better understand how consumers’ price knowledge evolve by regularly collecting consumers’ price recall error and price comparison error, they will be able to increase the effectiveness of price cues. Theoretical Implications This dissertation extends our theoretical understanding about the effects of sales promotions and consumers’ stockpiling behavior. It presents what types of a sales promotion have an influence on consumers’ promotion induced stockpiling and what are mediating mechanisms for the relationship between a sales promotion and stockpiling behavior (Study 1). By proposing three 75 moderators, it also examines how such relationships would vary (Study 2, 3, and 4). Additional objectives of the current dissertation is that how consumes’ price search behavior and knowledge is influenced by different types of a sales promotion. Lastly even though all of proposed mediating mechanisms are found insignificant, this dissertation explicitly addresses theoretical and managerial importance of our understanding of underlying psychological process. Even though the current four experiments are designed to capture a long-term as well as a short-term promotional effects because a carryover effect from past promotional exposures is expected and influential on consumers’ current purchase behavior, there are clear limitations. Thus, the first limitation appears because shopping tasks are computer simulated and simplified ones. The current results of theory testing need to be tested by using scanner data and/or in a more realistic retail environment. Second limitation is from the assumption that there is little competitive reaction from competitors. By using participants’ own preferred brand as a focal brand and hypothetical brands as alternative options and previous literature finds mixed results on competitors’ responses (e.g., Ailawadi, Kopalle, and Neslin 2005), it is plausible that competitors could react differently across types of sales promotion employed and their reactions could have some influences on consumers’ stockpiling. There are some important routes to extend this work. First, how the effects of discount depth and frequency on stockpiling vary according to brand and category traits. Second, although this dissertation only focuses on a price discount and not more on the other options such as coupons, rebates, etc., it might be worthwhile to investigate whether there are any synergy effects when they are combined together. Also, a follow-up question could be “what would be an optimal combination to trigger consumers’ stockpiling behavior?” Third, future empirical research should examine competitors’ response to types of price discounts and the effects of 76 competitive reactions to stockpiling behavior. Fourth, future research could compare established effects from four experiments to ones when various sizes of the brand are available and/or more brand alternatives are available. Lastly, future research could bring other consumers’ characteristics into the proposed model to examine whether there are significant differences regarding to the effects of a sales promotion on stockpiling. 77 APPENDICES 78 APPENDIX A COMPLETE SCENARIOS: STUDY 1 Introduction Before proceeding to the next page, please carefully read this instruction, From now you will be asked to purchase “ground coffee” for your household. You need to decide (1) which Brand you will purchase and (2) how many packages of the brand your will purchase. Note that you should choose only one brand and are allowed to buy multiple packages of your brand choice. Lastly, please do this hypothetical shopping as you usually do in a retail store you often go. Low Depth and Low Frequency Shopping #1 You just came to a grocery store where you usually purchase groceries. Today there are two available “ground coffee” brands which are (12 oz) and Café Value (12 oz). You know you have of coffee at home now. Please decide which brand and how many packages of the brand you will purchase. Figure 6–1: Price Tags of Shopping Task #1: Low DEP and Low FRQ Preferred brand name Café Value Shopping #2 YOUR NEXT SHOPPING TRIP TO THIS STORE: In this shopping trip, "ground coffee" is on your shopping list, because is left at home. Today there are two available brands which are (12 oz) and Café Value (12 oz). You recall that you have never seen on sale in the past. Please decide which brand and how many packages of the brand you will purchase. 79 Figure 6–2: Price Tags of Shopping Task #2: Low DEP and Low FRQ Preferred brand name Café Value High Depth and High Frequency Shopping #1 You just came to a grocery store where you usually purchase groceries. Today there are two available “ground coffee” brands which are (12 oz) and Café Value (12 oz). You know you have of coffee at home now. Please decide which brand and how many packages of the brand you will purchase. Figure 6–3: Price Tags of Shopping Task #1: High DEP and High FRQ Preferred brand name Café Value 80 Shopping #2 YOUR NEXT SHOPPING TRIP TO THIS STORE: In this shopping trip, "ground coffee" is on your shopping list, because ${q://QID2371/ChoiceGroup/SelectedChoices} is left at home. Today there are two available brands which are (12 oz) and Café Value (12 oz). You recall that, in your last three shopping trips you made, was on sale. Please decide which brand and how many packages of the brand you will purchase. Figure 6–4: Price Tags of Shopping Task #2: High DEP and High FRQ Preferred brand name Café Value High Depth and Low Frequency Shopping #1 You just came to a grocery store where you usually purchase groceries. Today there are two available “ground coffee” brands which are (12 oz) and Café Value (12 oz). You know you have of coffee at home now. Please decide which brand and how many packages of the brand you will purchase. Figure 6–5: Price Tags of Shopping Task #1: High DEP and Low FRQ Preferred brand name Café Value 81 Shopping #2 YOUR NEXT SHOPPING TRIP TO THIS STORE: In this shopping trip, "ground coffee" is on your shopping list, because is left at home. Today there are two available brands which are ${q://QID2183/ChoiceTextEntryValue} (12 oz) and Café Value (12 oz). You recall that you have never seen on sale in the past. Please decide which brand and how many packages of the brand you will purchase. Figure 6–6: Price Tags of Shopping Task #2: High DEP and Low FRQ Preferred brand name Café Value Low Depth and High Frequency Shopping #1 You just came to a grocery store where you usually purchase groceries. Today there are two available “ground coffee” brands which are (12 oz) and Café Value (12 oz). You know you have of coffee at home now. Please decide which brand and how many packages of the brand you will purchase. Figure 6–7: Price Tags of Shopping Task #1: Low DEP and High FRQ Preferred brand name Café Value 82 Shopping #2 YOUR NEXT SHOPPING TRIP TO THIS STORE: In this shopping trip, "ground coffee" is on your shopping list, because is left at home. Today there are two available brands which are (12 oz) and Café Value (12 oz). You recall that, in your last three shopping trips you made, was on sale. Please decide which brand and how many packages of the brand you will purchase. Figure 6–8: Price Tags of Shopping Task #2: Low DEP and High FRQ Preferred brand name Café Value 83 APPENDIX B COMPLETE SCENARIOS: STUDY 2 Other than purchase options of Shopping #2, all other parts are the same with Study 1 Low Benefit, High Depth, and High/Low Frequency Shopping #2 Figure 7–1: Price Tags of Shopping Task #2: Low BEF, High DEP, and High/Low FRQ Preferred brand name Café Value Low Benefit, Low Depth, and High/Low Frequency Shopping #2 Figure 7–2: Price Tags of Shopping Task #2: Low BEF, Low DEP, and High/Low FRQ Preferred brand name Café Value 84 High Benefit, Low Depth, and High/Low Frequency Shopping #2 Figure 7–3: Price Tags of Shopping Task #2: High BEF, Low DEP, and High/Low FRQ Preferred brand name Café Value High Benefit, High Depth, and High/Low Frequency Shopping #2 Figure 7–4: Price Tags of Shopping Task #2: High BEF, High DEP, and High/Low FRQ Preferred brand name Café Value 85 APPENDIX C COMPLETE SCENARIOS: STUDY 3 Other than purchase options of Shopping #2, all other parts are the same with Study 1 New Product, Low Depth, and High/Low Frequency Shopping #2 Figure 8–1: Price Tags of Shopping Task #2: NP, Low DEP, and High/Low FRQ Preferred brand name Preferred brand name: NEW!! 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