E LMSU RETURNING MATERIALS: P1ace in book dr66_to remove this checkout from your record. FINES will be charged if book is returned after the date stamped be1ow. JUN 2,. 2 1999 w“? PREDICTIVE MODELS OF SUBURBAN WEEKLY NEWSPAPER CIRCULATION, ADVERTISING SPACE AND EXISTENCE -- 1970-1980 BY Walter Edward Niebauer Jr. A DISSERTATION Submitted to Michigan State University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY College of Communication Arts and Sciences Mass Media 1986 ABSTRACT PREDICTIVE MODELS OF SUBURBAN WEEKLY NEWSPAPER CIRCULATION, ADVERTISING SPACE AND EXISTENCE -- 1970-1980 BY Walter Edward Niebauer Jr. This study was designed as the first step toward developing a theory of evolution of the suburban newspaper in America. The suburban newspaper was of interest because of its potential to fill the voids left by the demise of large metropolitan dailies. Specifically, the study focused on suburban weeklies, as the most basic level of the suburban newspaper, and the independent variables that affected their girculation, advertising space/and existence in 1970 and 1980, and the change in circulation and advertising space between 1970 and 1980. Independent variables included in the analyses combined four approaches employed in previous research: :Jvariables controlled by the newspaper; community demographics,%ommunity attachment/commitment, and Ucompetition. Results of multiple regression analysis showed no evidence of evolution occurring in the independent variables predicting circulation, and scant evidence of any occurring in those predicting advertising space. Only suburban retail sales changed in its effect on advertising Walter Edward Niebauer Jr. space, having an insignificant effect in 1970 and a negative, significant effect in 1970. Circulation was the only consistently significant predictor of advertising space, having a positive effect. Advertising space, and \_"/,," news and feature space were the only independent variables that were consistently significant predictors of circulation, having positive effects. In contrast, the discriminant analysis of the independent variables predicting the existence of suburban weeklies produced several indications of an evolutionary process. Four variables were significant in their ability to discriminate between suburbs with and without weeklies in one of the two years examined. Median age of suburban residents, mean number of years of education of suburban residents, and competition from suburban newspapers were positive discriminators in 1970 but not in 1980. Suburban papulation relative to the population of the central city was a positive discriminator in 1980 but not in 1970. Independent variables that were consistently significant discriminators in both 1970 and 1980 were suburban retail sales, percentage of eligible voters who voted in the most recent local election, and competition from other media, which were positive predictors, and mean suburban income per household which was a negative predictor. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I am indebted to the many people who, in one way or another, contributed to the completion of this paper. Thanks is due the final members of my doctoral committee, professors Keith Adler, Larry Foster, Barry Litman and Stan Soffin, and former members of the committee, professors Ray Cullen and John Abel. Special thanks are due Prof. Litman for guiding me through the intricacies of multiple regression. Additional thanks go to my collegues at Iowa State University, especially Prof. JJK. Hvistendahl, chairman of Journalism and Mass Communication, for their support and encouragement during the writing of the dissertation. Finally, special appreciation is expressed to my family and its unswerving understanding and encouragement during my doctoral program. ii TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES . O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O 0 KEY TO ABBREVIATIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . CHAPTER I. II. III. ;35)A Demand Model for Advertising IV. SVZA Demand Model for Circulation INTRODUCTION 0 O O O O O O O O O O O O O 0 Evolution of the Suburban Press . . . . Rationale . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Scope of the Study . . . . . . . . . . . LITEMTURE REVIEW 0 O O O O O O O O O O O 0 Community Differences . . . . . . . . . Identifying Variables . . . . . . . . . METHODOLOGY 0 O O O O O O O O O O O 0 O O 0 Definitions . . . . . . . . . Time Frame . . . . . . . . . . Hypotheses . . . . . . . . . Hypotheses . . . . . . . . . . A Model of Suburban Newspaper E Hypotheses . . . . . . . . . Operationalizations Sampling . . . . . . Data Analysis . . . i t n e .o..x...... .o..m...... ....m...... ....0...... RESULTS 0 O O O O O O O I O O O O O O O O O A Demand Model for Circulation . . . . . A Demand Model for Advertising . . . . . A Model of Suburban Newspaper Existence Representativeness of the Suburb Samples iii Page viii . 17 I 18 . 25 61 62 63 67 81 83 91 92 99 112 114 124 124 152 163 176 TABLE OF CONTENTS (CONTINUED) CHAPTER Page V. SUMMARY, CONCLUSIONS AND FURTHER RESEARCH . . . 181 summary I O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O 0 O 181 conCIUSionS O O O O O O O O O O O O O 0 O O 187 Further Research . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 210 BIBLIOGRAPHY O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O 215 iv LIST OF TABLES Page DEMAND FOR CIRCULATION . . . . . . . . . . . . 51 DEMAND FOR ADVERTISING . . . . . . . . . . . . S3 CORRELATION MATRIX OF CIRCULATION DEMAND VARIABLES (1980) .. . .. . .. . .. . . 125 CORRELATION MATRIX OF CIRCULATION DEMAND VARIABLES (1970) C C O O O O O O O O C O O 126 REGRESSION COEFFICIENTS OF VARIABLES PREDICTING SUBURBAN WEEKLY NEWSPAPER CIRCULATION DEMAND FOR 1970, 1980 AND DEMAND CHANGE BETWEEN 1970 AND 1980 (OMITTED ARE NHH, OHH, ASP, MPR) . . . . . 127 REGRESSION COEFFICIENTS OF VARIABLES PREDICTING SUBURBAN WEEKLY NEWSPAPER CIRCULATION DEMAND FOR 1970, 1980 AND DEMAND CHANGE BETWEEN 1970 AND 1980 (OMITTED ARE NHH, OHH, NSP, MPR) . . . . . 128 REGRESSION COEFFICIENTS OF VARIABLES PREDICTING SUBURBAN WEEKLY NEWSPAPER CIRCULATION DEMAND FOR 1970, 1980 AND DEMAND CHANGE BETWEEN 1970 AND 1980 (OMITTED ARE NHH, OHH, ASP, CMP) . . . . . 129 REGRESSION COEFFICIENTS OF VARIABLES PREDICTING SUBURBAN WEEKLY NEWSPAPER CIRCULATION DEMAND FOR 1970, 1980 AND DEMAND CHANGE BETWEEN 1970 AND 1980 (OMITTED ARE NHH, OHH, NSP, CMP) . . . . . 130 REGRESSION COEFFICIENTS OF VARIABLES PREDICTING SUBURBAN WEEKLY NEWSPAPER CIRCULATION DEMAND FOR 1970, 1980 AND DEMAND CHANGE BETWEEN 1970 AND 1980 (OMITTED ARE POP, OHH, ASP, MPR) . . . . . 131 Table Page S-F REGRESSION COEFFICIENTS OF VARIABLES PREDICTING SUBURBAN WEEKLY NEWSPAPER CIRCULATION DEMAND FOR 1970, 1980 AND DEMAND CHANGE BETWEEN 1970 AND 1980 (OMITTED ARE POP, OHH, NSP, MPR) . . . . . 132 S-G REGRESSION COEFFICIENTS OF VARIABLES PREDICTING SUBURBAN WEEKLY NEWSPAPER CIRCULATION DEMAND FOR 1970, 1980 AND DEMAND CHANGE BETWEEN 1970 AND 1980 (OMITTED ARE POP, OHH, ASP, CMP) . . . . . 133 5-H REGRESSION COEFFICIENTS OF VARIABLES PREDICTING SUBURBAN WEEKLY NEWSPAPER CIRCULATION DEMAND FOR 1970, 1980 AND DEMAND CHANGE BETWEEN 1970 AND 1980 (OMITTED ARE POP, OHH, NSP, CMP) . . . . . 134 S-I REGRESSION COEFFICIENTS OF VARIABLES PREDICTING SUBURBAN WEEKLY NEWSPAPER CIRCULATION DEMAND FOR 1970, 1980 AND DEMAND CHANGE BETWEEN 1970 AND 1980 (OMITTED ARE POP, NHH, ASP, MPR) . . . . . 135 S-J REGRESSION COEFFICIENTS OF VARIABLES PREDICTING SUBURBAN WEEKLY NEWSPAPER CIRCULATION DEMAND FOR 1970, 1980 AND DEMAND CHANGE BETWEEN 1970 AND 1980 (OMITTED ARE POP, NHH, NSP, MPR) . . . . . 136 5-K REGRESSION COEFFICIENTS OF VARIABLES PREDICTING SUBURBAN WEEKLY NEWSPAPER CIRCULATION DEMAND FOR 1970, 1980 AND DEMAND CHANGE BETWEEN 1970 AND 1980 (OMITTED ARE POP, NHH, ASP, CMP) . . . . . 137 S-L REGRESSION COEFFICIENTS OF VARIABLES PREDICTING SUBURBAN WEEKLY NEWSPAPER CIRCULATION DEMAND FOR 1970, 1980 AND DEMAND CHANGE BETWEEN 1970 AND 1980 (OMITTED ARE POP, NHH, NSP, CMP) . . . . . 138 6 CORRELATION MATRIX OF ADVERTISING DEMAND VARIABLES (1980) o o o o o o o o o o o o o 153 7 CORRELATION MATRIX OF ADVERTISING DEMAND VARIABLES (1970) o o o o o o o o o o o o o 154 vi Table Page 8 REGRESSION COEFFICIENTS OF VARIABLES PREDICTING SUBURBAN WEEKLY NEWSPAPER ADVERTISING SPACE DEMAND FOR 1970, 1980 AND DEMAND CHANGE BETWEEN 1970 AND 1980 . 155 9 CORRELATION MATRIX OF SUBURBAN WEEKLY EXISTENCE VARIABLES (1980) .. . .. . .. 164 10 CORRELATION MATRIX OF SUBURBAN WEEKLY EXISTENCE VARIABLES (1970) .. . .. . .. 165 11 STEPWISE DISCRIMINANT SELECTION PROCEDURE FOR 1980 EXISTENCE O O O O O O O I O O O O 166 12 STEPWISE DISCRIMINANT SELECTION PROCEDURE FOR 1970 EXISTENCE O O O O O O O O O O O O 167 13 CANONICAL DISCRIMINANT FUNCTIONS FOR 1980 EXISTENCE . O I O O O O O O C O O O O O I 168 14 CANONICAL DISCRIMINANT FUNCTION COEFFICIENTS FOR 1980 EXISTENCE . .. . .. . .. . .. 168 15 CANONICAL DISCRIMINANT FUNCTIONS FOR 1980 EXISTENCE C O O O O O O O O O C O C O O I 169 16 CANONICAL DISCRIMINANT FUNCTION COEFFICIENTS FOR 1970 EXISTENCE . O 0 O O O O O O O O O 169 17 COMPARISON OF 1980 UNITED STATES SUBURBAN DEMOGRAPHIC MEANS WITH DEMAND AND EXISTENCE SWLES O C O I C O O O O O O O O O I O O 178 18 COMPARISON OF 1970 UNITED STATES SUBURBAN DEMOGRAPHIC MEANS WITH DEMAND AND EXISTENCE SWLES O O O O O O O C C O O O O O O O O 179 vii AGE ASP CIR CMP CPI DOM EDU EES INC NHH NSP OHH POP PVT SBX KEY TO ABBREVIATIONS Median age of suburban residents Column inch price of advertising in suburban weeklies Column inches of advertising space in suburban weeklies Suburban weekly circulation Competition index representing metrOpolitan dailies, television and radio Consumer Price Index Population dominance of the central city over the suburbs Mean number of years of education of suburban residents Economic/education status, an index combining mean income and mean number of years of education of suburban residents Mean suburban income per household Subscription price of metropolitan dailies Number of suburban households Column inches of news and features in suburban weeklies Percentage of homes in the suburbs owned by residents Suburban population Percentage of eligible voters in suburbs who voted in most recent local election Suburban weekly newspaper existence viii KEY TO ABBREVIATIONS (CONTINUED) SCP SLS SMSA SPR Competition from suburban newspapers Retail sales in the suburbs Standard Metropolitan Statistical Area Subscription price of suburban weeklies ix CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION Until the early 19705, suburban newspapers were a disorganized medium that lacked the collective power to compete successfully with the metropolitan daily newspapers in their communities. As will be discussed later in this chapter, the present strength of the suburban newspaper industry can be traced to the unifying forces of two organizations that emerged in 1971. Although the suburban press has existed only since World War II, it has rapidly emerged as an important competitor of the metropolitan daily press.1 In many cities suburban newspapers have siphoned both advertising revenues and circulation away from the metropolitan dailies.2 As a result, suburban newspapers have been cited as a major reason for the demise of at least three metropolitan dailies since the mid 19703.3 Information about the relative strengths of the metropolitan daily and suburban newspapers suggests a trend toward a weaker metropolitan daily press and a stronger suburban press. For example, in 1965 the four Chicago metropolitan daily newspapers had a total circulation of 2.3 million compared with a total suburban newspaper I 2 circulation of 80,000. In 1977, however, with the number of metropolitan dailies reduced to two, circulation was almost evenly split between the metropolitan dailies and the suburban papers, each with about 1.6 million. The trend has continued, with suburban newspaper circulation in 1984 up to 1.75 million and metropolitan daily down to 1.35 million.4 The trend indicates a change in the American newspaper industry, an evolutionary process that appears to be reshaping the industry. This dissertation is the first stage of what is expected to be a series of studies, by the author, leading to the development of a theory of evolution of the newspaper industry in the United States. Before discussing the specific approach of this study, a review of the circumstances and events that have enabled the suburban press to achieve its increasingly important position in the newspaper industry is necessary. Evolution pf the Suburban Press Birth 9; the Suburbs The return of military personnel from World War II, and the baby boom that followed, aggravated already crowded conditions in America's larger cities and led to a desire by many families, especially whites, to find refuge from the noise, traffic, bad air, lack of outdoor space and the growing nonwhite populations that characterized the cities.5 For example, the population of New York City was 3 7.5 million in 1940. It rose to 7.9 million in 1950 and peaked in 1960 at 8.4 million, when the flight to the suburbs accelerated. Vital statistics for New York City indicate that the birth rate exceeded the flight to the suburbs before 1960, and that helped maintain the population growth. After 1960, births no longer kept pace with the exodus to the suburbs and population decreased to 7.9 million in 1970 and 7.3 million in 1980.6 Federal housing programs provided the financial support necessary to enable the population to migrate from the central city to the relatively uncrowded outlying areas. The expanded freeway systems also helped by making commuting easier.7 Within only a few years retail businesses from the central cities followed the population migration and established shopping centers and malls to serve the suburbs. Later, other businesses sought land in the suburbs to construct the sprawling, one-story buildings for assembly-line production. The suburbs also provided easier access to rail lines and highways than had been the case in the traffic-congested cities.8 The dramatic shift to the suburbs is illustrated by an increase in the share of businesses locating there in the suburbs. In a study of the location of businesses in 40 Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas between 1948 and 1963, the suburban share of manufacturing increased from 33.1 percent to 51.8 percent; wholesale businesses, from 8.2 percent to 28.6 4 percent; retail businesses, from 24.7 percent to 45.4 percent; and service businesses, from 15.2 percent to 31.3 percent.9 The increase in suburban businesses eliminated a commute to the central city for employment. The decreased reliance on the city for employment is demonstrated by a 1970 survey that showed that 72 percent of the residents in Westchester County, outside of New York City, worked in the suburbs. In earlier years Westchester County had been considered a bedroom community for New York City.10 A major difference between life in the central city and in the suburbs was the degree that residents participated in suburban politics. This had a profound impact on the philosophy of press coverage by the suburban press, as will be discussed below. Since most suburban areas were underdeveloped when the population influx began, residents became involved in the process of developing local services, local governments and other local necessities. Since most residents of the central city had little or no opportunity to become deeply involved in the political process, because of the time commitments required and the competition for leadership roles, they tended to be observers of the process rather than participants. Leadership in the suburbs, however, was less competitive and demanded less time than in the cities since most of the suburban political positions were parttime. These 5 conditions provided more opportunities for residents to .become, leaders and they took advantage of them.11 Emergence 9f the Suburban Press Suburban newspapers arose from two sources. The earliest were the pre-WWII papers that had been serving the smaller towns outside the central city before the onset of suburban sprawl. Eventually these papers were surrounded by the growing suburbs.12 As governments and services developed in the suburbs and subsequently attracted more industries and other businesses away from the cities, additional newspapers were established specifically to serve the suburbs that were not served by the existing metropolitan papers.l3 Until the mid-19605 most of the suburban papers were poorly-written, badly-produced products compared to the metropolitan dailies.14 The poor quality created an image problem with businesses that advertised metro-wide and, as a result, most of the advertising revenue came from the small, local businesses that couldn't afford to, or had no desire to, advertise in the metropolitan dailies.15 Suburban papers encountered other problems with advertisers, especially when the papers sought to attract chain store and national advertising from stores in the suburbs.16 For example, to place an advertisement in the suburban papers, the advertisers often had to go through 6 the costly process of changing the size or shape of the advertisement to fit the variety of formats used by the suburban papers.l7 While the large metropolitan dailies faced a similar problem of unstandardized advertisement sizes, there were fewer dailies and they had larger circulations, and therefore advertisers were more willing to adapt their advertisements to the individual formats. Lack of reliable circulation figures and reader demographics also put suburban newspapers at a competitive disadvantage with the metropolitan dailies. Advertisers needed reliable circulation data to calculate the cost-per- thousand figure necessary to determine the efficiency of advertising in the suburban papers. The suburban papers could make no assurances that the circulation figures were correct and would not be able to make such assurances until the early 19705, when circulation auditing became widespread in the medium.18 Lack of readership demographics presented a similar problem. Advertisers wanted to know who read the papers to determine if they wanted to reach that market. Few suburban newspapers could provide the necessary readership demographic information until the early 19703.19 Finally, while advertisers could reach a large part of the metropolitan audience by contacting one or two metrOpolitan dailies, reaching the suburban audience required contacting a multitude of suburban newspapers. Taken together, the 7 expenditures of time and money necessary to reach the suburban audience made major advertisers reluctant to include the suburban newspapers in their advertising plans.20 The modern suburban newspaper industry emerged in 1971, when two organizations began to provide at least partial solutions for the problems of advertising in suburban papers and poor product quality of the small papers. The Suburban Newspaper Association (SNA), was created in 1971 with the merger of the Suburban Press Foundation, Accredited Home Newspapers, and the Suburban Section of the National Newspaper Association.21 The three associations had provided the only organized effort to improve editorial and production quality in the suburban press. SNA was formed to help improve the quality and therefore the image of suburban newspapers and to encourage standardized advertising space formats. The new organization established subjective quality and content requirements for membership in the association.22 In 1972, SNA also established a research institute to conduct readership surveys for member papers.23 The organization grew from an original membership of 50 publishers in 1971 to 225 publishers in 1973.24 The second organization, United States Suburban Press Incorporated (USSPI), became the sole representative of suburban newspapers for advertisers wanting to reach 8 suburban newspaper markets. USSPI allowed advertisers to place advertisements in any or all of its member newspapers, thus eliminating the expense of contacting each suburban newspaper in a desired market area. USSPI also solved the problem of unreliable circulation data by requiring all its members to have their circulations audited.25 By 1980 USSPI had a membership of more than 1,000 suburban newspapers, about 60 percent of the suburban press.26 Metropolitan Dailies Fight Back In 1955, Mark Ethridge, publisher of the Louisville Courier-Journal, recognized that suburban newspapers had begun to make inroads into metropolitan daily circulation. He noted that in 1950-55, suburban newspapers in the 10 most populous cities in the United States had gained a half million in circulation, largely at the expense of the metropolitan dailies. Ethridge added that the loss of circulation would continue unless metropolitan dailies developed an effective method for serving the new suburban audience.27 John Cameron Sim, one of the earliest researchers of suburban newspapers, commented in 1958 that suburban newspapers need not fear competition from metropolitan dailies because "they (the metropolitan dailies) may cover an area, but they do not usually serve it.'28 9 When the trend toward the one-newspaper household began in 1961-62, the circulation problem was felt even more acutely by the metropolitan dailies. Derick Daniels, then city editor of the Detroit Eggs Press, said in 1962 that if the metropolitan dailies could be certain that there would be two newspapers on the doorstep of the suburban reader there would be no problem. But he said research in Detroit indicated such was not the case. He said that the suburban paper was assured of a place on the doorstep but that the metropolitan daily was not.29 But the metropolitan dailies were not about to relinquish the lucrative suburban market without a fight. Consequently, various strategies have been devised to counter the loss of circulation to the suburban papers.30 One approach was to issue zoned editions of the metropolitan dailies. Zoned editions contain editorial content targeted for readers in a specific part of the total circulation area. In some instances, the zoned edition is actually a special section, usually four or more pages, inserted into what is otherwise a regular edition of the paper. Other zoned editions are essentially individualized covers wrapped around the regular issue. Some zoned editions appear daily, but most are weekly inserts.31 A second approach is for the metropolitan dailies to publish their own distinct suburban papers, 10 editorially separate from the dailies, to compete head-to— head with those already established suburban weeklies.32 Both approaches have suffered from two problems: editorial personnel inexperienced with the suburbs and cannibalization of advertising revenue. In most cases the metropolitan dailies staffed their suburban papers with personnel from the downtown newsroom. While well-schooled in big-city reporting, those staff members do not have the contacts, reader confidence and experience in the suburban areas to match the coverage of the entrenched papers. Some observers claim that only in suburbs where the local paper is weak and in areas where the suburbs are not well defined have metropolitan dailies been able to compete successfully for readers.33 The second problem was the tendency of the metropolitan newspapers to cannibalize advertising from the dailies to feed their suburban publications. The net effect has been little growth in total advertising revenues. The only difference is that the method of obtaining the same amount of advertising is less efficient and more expensive when advertising is split between the metropolitan daily and its own suburban newspapers rather then being limited solely to the daily.34 A final problem not discussed earlier in this paper but that is occasionally encountered by metropolitan daily-owned suburban papers is the resentment among the suburban 11 residents against the big-city papers trying to invade their area.35 The only strategy that appears to have worked reasonably well has been for a metropolitan daily to purchase or establish newspapers in suburbs outside its main circulation area. This tactic eliminates the possibility of cannibalizing advertising from the parent paper. In this situation, however, the suburban papers often siphon revenues away from the metropolitan daily.36 The Suburban Press Philosophy In addition to meeting advertisers' needs, the most important factor in the success of suburban newspapers has been their approach to editorial content, which differs from the content of metropolitan dailies. The suburban approach closely resembles what marketing managers refer to as the "marketing concept," which says that to be successful a business should find out what the consumers want and give it to them.37 This is in sharp contrast to the approach of the managers of metropolitan dailies, who base news judgments on what they think their readers should have.38 Aside from the obvious differences in the news focuses of the two media, another reason for the difference in the approaches of the two media is the degree of participation in community affairs practiced by personnel from the two 12 media. Staff members of suburban newspapers are more involved in the workings of the community as participants than are metropolitan daily reporters, who tend to be aloof spectators. For example, suburban staffers might run for membership on town councils and school boards.39 Such activity by metropolitan daily reporters would be considered a conflict of interest that might oompromise reporters. As a consequence of the above conditions, suburban newspaper personnel may have a better understanding, than do metropolitan daily reporters, of what readers want and need from the newspaper. In this respect the suburban press staffers, at least those on newspapers that cover only one or two suburbs, may better reflect the participative nature of the suburban residents as referred to earlier. The suburban newspaper philosophy produces an editorial content different from the metropolitan dailies. In suburban newspapers, especially those covering only one or two suburbs, the content is either generated within the suburb or generated elsewhere but with a direct impact on the suburb. Except for suburban dailies, suburban papers usually ignore international, national and state news, under the assumption that readers will obtain that information from the metropolitan dailies or other media.40 Suburban newspapers also tend to take a more positive 13 approach to news than do the metropolitan dailies. Jackson found that suburban newspapers were more open to personal opinions and views of readers than were metropolitan dailies. He also found that the suburban press more actively supported community projects than did metropolitan dailies.41 ' Usually, the suburban paper provides a showcase for all the good things happening in the community and tends to dismiss the more negative news. Controversial issues are covered in the papers but are generally treated from a neutral viewpoint with the paper rarely taking a stand.42 Olien, Donohue and Tichenor explored this phenomenon and found that the more localized the press, the less conflict the press reported. They found that the more localized press tended to promote consensus apparently as an agent of conflict management.43 Because of the positive and participative approaches taken by the suburban papers, they appear to resemble a combination public relations publication and a social calendar for the local chamber of commerce . 44 Evolution $3 the Newspaper Industry The establishment and growth of the suburbs following the end of World War II had profound effects on the roles of newspapers in metropolitan areas. One effect was to eliminate the market for more than one or two general l4 circulation, general interest metropolitan dailies in most cities. Most cities that today are ringed by suburbs had no such surrounding communities at the end of the war. Consequently, no special suburban segments of the population required targeted newspaper content. As a result, the plethora of general interest dailies thrived. .But the suburbs grew rapidly, greatly outstripping the population gains of the central city. Between 1940 and 1960, suburban population grew 102 percent, while central city population grew 27 percent.45 By 1970 the 0.8. Census showed for the first time that the majority of peOple living in metropolitan areas lived in the suburbs.46 As the populous abandoned the central cities for the suburbs, and the suburban newspapers took control of the suburban markets, the metropolitan dailies were left to compete among themselves for a reduced number of readers and advertisers.47 Competition from suburban papers appears to have been the final blow to some metropolitan dailies that suffered from high supply costs, especially newsprint, union demands and the loss of national advertising to television.48 For many metropolitan dailies that already trailed their competitors in advertising revenues and circulation, the results were fatal, and the weaker metropolitan daily newspapers began to fail. Data indicate the extensiveness of the problem that suburban papers posed for metropolitan dailies. Force found 15 that between 1946 and 1961 suburban newspaper circulation grew 86.6 percent while central city daily circulation decreased by 2.6 percent.49 Nixon found that the number of daily newspapers remained exactly the same between 1945 and 1968. But he pointed out that the stability in numbers was due largely to suburban papers increasing in numbers to replace failing metropolitan dailies.so Byerly found that between 1950 and 1968, readership of suburban newspapers gained more than 52 percent -- with the three million increase in circulation more than absorbing the 2.5 million readers lost by the metropolitan dailies.51 In Chicago in 1965 the four metrOpolitan dailies had a total circulation of 2.3 million and the suburban papers a total of 800,000. But, by 1977 the suburban papers had drawn even with the metropolitan dailies, with a circulation of 1.6 million.52 Especially since 1978, suburban papers have picked up more of the orphaned circulation than have the two surviving metropolitan dailies.53 There was also a trend toward semi- and tri-weekly suburban newspapers going to daily publication in areas where a metropolitan daily has died.54 This change to daily publication usually was accompanied by the addition of content that is not local to the suburbs the papers originally served.55 The change in content was necessary to serve the more generalized audience. Usually the suburban papers will add metropolitan and state news first, 16 and national and international news later if necessary. In adding the non-suburban content, the newspapers cease to be suburban newspapers, in the sense described earlier, and occupy a niche somewhere between the suburban weeklies and the metropolitan dailies. However, because of their roots in suburban journalism, the small dailies have the proven ability to serve the suburbs. It appears that this duality of coverage allows the small dailies to maintain their suburban readers while adding the readers orphaned by the demise of the large metropolitan dailies. And, for example, eight metropolitan dailies ceased publication during 1974 through 1984.56 As a result of this evolutionary process, the newspaper industry in the metropolitan areas has changed from having two large metropolitan dailies, and a large number of suburban papers, to one large metropolitan daily, several small metropolitan and a large number of suburban weekly papers. What remains to be seen is whether the evolutionary process in the newspaper industry will continue at what appears to be an accelerated pace. If the newspaper industry is in the midst of an accelerated period of change, one can expect weekly newspapers that now serve a restricted suburban area to replace the small dailies that began as weeklies. This will be followed by one or more of 17 the small dailies becoming sufficiently large to challenge the surviving large daily in the metropolitan area. Assuming these changes do occur, it also remains to be seen whether the newspaper industry in a metropolitan area will then be in equilibrium, or if one of the large metropolitan dailies will die and perpetuate the evolutionary cycle. Rationale The preceding historical sketch describes the rise of the suburban press to a level of considerable importance in the newspaper industry. However, it does not provide the necessary detail to develop a practical, working understanding of this thriving medium. Understanding the suburban press is essential to understanding the evolutionary process in the United States' newspaper industry today. Except for USA Today, Florida Today and the Washingpon Times, which began as large scale operations because of tremendous financial backing, the suburban press appears to be the sole potential source of newspaper replacements for the media voices lost through the deaths of large metropolitan dailies. To understand the evolutionary process of the press, it is necessary to understand the suburban press. This 18 study is intended to explore the function and impact of the suburban press in the United States. Scope 9; the Study The American suburban press resembles the daily newspaper press because of the great diversity within the ranks of each. Both exhibit differences in the frequency of publication, the size of the geographic area and population they serve, and the editorial content and amount of potential advertising they provide. The same differences that separate the total newspaper medium into submedia are undoubtedly also found in the suburban newspaper field. Consequently, the different categories of suburban newspapers also must be examined individually. Since this study is intended to develop an understanding of evolution in the suburban newspaper industry, it begins by examining the most restricted category of suburban papers -- suburban weeklies. The weekly is generally the most restricted in area of circulation, serves the most restricted population and includes the most localized content. Even within the category of suburban weeklies, however, considerable diversity exists in localized content, depending upon the primary circulation area. Therefore, to focus on an even more localized medium, and 19 presumably the most elemental in the evolutionary process, this study will examine only those suburban weeklies that serve primarily a single suburb. Having circumscribed the population of newspapers to be examined, this study will identify the factors in a suburb that provide an environment fertile enough to sustain a successful suburban newspaper. For the purposes of this study, success will be measured at the most basic level by the mere existence of a newspaper and at a more precise level of success by its circulation and advertising space. More specifically, the study will seek to determine to what extent the characteristics of the suburbs and suburban dwellers predict success (i.e. existence, circulation and advertising) of a weekly newspaper that serves primarily a single suburb. ENDNOTES 1"225 Publishers are Enrolled in New Suburban Press Group,'-Editor 3 Publisher, Jan. 6, 1973, p. 18. 2James Force, ”The Daily Press in Suburbia: Trends in 15 Metropolitan Areas," Journalism Quarterly, 39:463 (1962). 3Andrea Chancellor, "Big Problem in Big Cities: Competing Against Suburban Weekly, Daily Papers,” Publishers Auxiliary, Feb. 13, 1978, pp. 1-2. 4Editor 5 Publisher International Yearbook, editions 1966-1980. 5G.A. Wissink, American Cities _i_p_ Perspective (Assen, The Netherlands: Royal Vangorcum Ltd., 1962), p. 233. 6Vital Statistics pg the United States (Wash., OIL: Government Printing Office). 7Mark R. Arnold, "New Suburb Majority: It's Changing Marketing Map," Advertising Age, Nov. 17, 1975, pp. 134- 136. 8William N. Leonard, in The Suburban Community, William M. Dobriner, ed. (New York: G.P. Putnam's Sons, 1958), p. 187. 9Bennett Harrison, Urban Economic Development (Wash., D.C.: The Urban Institute, 1974), p. 10. 20 21 10"Suburban Papers Target Research to Metro Stores," Editor 5 Publisher, Jan. 9, 1971, p. 107. 11John Cameron Sim, The Grass Roots Press: Americafs Community Papers (Ames: Iowa State University Press, 1969), pp. 87-88. lzIbid., p. 62. 13"Studying the Market for a Suburban Daily," Editor 3 Publisher, June 22, 1968, p. 22. 14Rick Friedman, "Journey Into Suburbia,” Editor g Publisher, Dec. 30, 1961, pp. 44-45. lS'Y & R is Considering a Supplement for Suburban Newspapers," Editor 3 Publisher, June 24, 1972, pp. 12, 40. l6"Suburb Papers Face Many Changes," Editor 3 Publisher, March 21, 1970, p. 38. 17Niles Howard, "Price, Circulation Gripes Key Suburb Press Meet,“ Advertising Age, July 7, 1975, p. 33. 18John Consoli, ”Suburban Publishers Urged to Prove Usefulness,” Editor _&_ Publisher, Sept. 24, 1977, p. 12. 19"Suburban Press Needs Figures to Back Ad Potential, Publishers Told,” Advertising Age, June 26, 1972, pp. 3, 102. 20Howard, ”Price, Circulation Gripes Key Suburb Press Meet," p. 33. 21'225 Publishers are Enrolled in New Suburban Press Group,” p. 18. 22Ibid. 22 23"Suburban Newspaper Ad Unit Starts Reader Survey Project," Advertising Age, Oct. 4, 1976, p. 58. 24"225 Publishers are Enrolled in New Suburban Press Group,” p. 18. 25"Suburban Press Needs Figures to Back Ad Potential, Publishers Told,” p. 3. 26Andrew Radolf, ”Suburban Ad Rep Draws Bead on Metro Dailies," Editor 5 Publisher, May 26, 1979, p. 36. 27Mark Ethridge, address at the First Annual Ohio Press Institute, Feb. 15, 1955. 28John Cameron Sim, ”Weekly Newspapers Again Facing Challenge to Move," Journalism Quarterly, 35:198 (1958). 29Rick Friedman, “Suburban Press Tabbed.'Journa1ism of Tomorrow,” Editor .51 Publisher, Feb. 3, 1962, pp. 9, 64. 30John Consoli, "Editors Urged to Print More Suburban Stories,“ Editor 5 Publisher, Feb. 26, 1977, p. 14. 31Chancellor, "Big Problem in Big Cities: Competing Against Suburban Weekly, Daily Papers,” pp. 1-2. 32"Weekly Inside Daily Serves Suburban Area," Editor 5 Publisher, Sept. 14, 1963, p. 32. 33Bernard S. Daniels, "Publisher Has a View From Both Sides Now," Advertising Age, Nov. 19, 1979, pp. 848-849. 34James H. Bowman, ”Metro Papers Color Selves Suburban," Advertising Age, pp. 348-849. 35David Shaw, "LAfs Suburban Newspaper Market: Many Thrive, Others Feel the Pinch,“ Editor 5 Publisher, July 14, 1976, p. 23. 23 36Otto Fuerbringer, "Suburban Newspapers in 703," Advertising Age, Jan. 19, 1970, p. 56. 37'The Weekly Editor: Find Surveys Help Suburban Papers,‘ Editor g Publisher, Nova 20, 1965, p. 36. 38Judee K. Burgoon, Michael Burgoon and Charles K. Atkin, "A Preliminary Report on the World of the Working Journalist Conducted for the American Society of Newspaper Editors," May 1982, p. 14. 39Thomas E. Petersen, Chicagofls Suburban Newspapers: The Paddock Papers. Unpublished manuscript, Iowa State University, 1984. 40Steve Lovelady, ”How to Cover the Suburb,” Editor 5 Publisher, Sept. 15, 1973, p. 14. 41Kenneth M. Jackson, ”Local Orientations of Suburban Newspaper Subscribers," Newspaper Research Journal, 3:56 (1982). 42Lovelady, ”How to Cover the Suburb," p. 14. 43Clarice N. Olien, George A. Donohue and Phillip J. Tichenor, I‘The Community Editor's Power and the Reporting of Conflict," Journalism Quarterly, 45:243-244, 247 (1968). 44Friedman, "Journey Into Suburbia," p. 44. 45Leo Bogart and Frank E. Orenstein, ”Mass Media and Community Identity in an Interurban Setting," Journalism Quarterly, 42:180-181, 188 (1965). 46"Suburban Papers Target Research to Metro Stores," p. 107. 471. William Hill, ”Suburban Papers Advised to Ignore Metro Dailies,” Editor 3 Publisher, May 24, 1980, p. 13. 24 48Edwin Emery and Michael Emery, The-Press and America, 4the. ed. (Englewood Cliffs, bLJ.: Prentice-Hill, Inc., 1978), pp. 437-438. 49Force, "The Daily Press In Suburbia," p.463. 50Raymond B. Nixon, “Trends in U.S. Newspaper Ownership: Concentration with Competition," in Mass Media and Society, 2nd. ed., Alan Wells, ed. (Palo Alto, Calif: Mayfield Publishing Co., 1979), p. 15. 51Kenneth R. Byerly, ”Dailies on Skids? No!" The Quil , August 1969, pp. 13-15. szgglggg 3 Publisher International Yearbook, editions 1953-1980. S3Andrea Chancellor, 'Chicagofls Two Surviving Dailies Battling Aggressive Corps of Suburban Papers,” Publishers Auxiliary, June 5, 1978, p.]” 3. 54Kenneth A. Weiss, "Suburban Press Trends Noted by Publisher," Editor 5 Publisher, May 31, 1975, p. 14. 55Gerald B. Healey, "National Revenue Suburbans' Target," Editor é Publisher, March 5, 1966, p. 17. 56§gigg£ 5 Publisher International Yearbook, editions CHAPTER II LITERATURE REVIEW This review identifies variables cited in previous studies as significant to the success of newspapers in the United States. As noted in the introduction, success in this study will be determined at the most basic level by mere existence and by circulation and advertising as a measure of the degree of the newspaper's success. Since little research has examined the suburban press peg ee, this study will investigate those variables that have demonstrated significant impact on the success of other newspapers realizing that, in all likelihood, not all will have a significant impact on the suburban press. CommunityrDifferences This approach assumes differences in newspaper readership among different communities. If this assumption were not true, there would be no logical reason to examine an individual type of community, since all could be expected to yield similar results. But there is substantial evidence that indicates there are differences in newspaper readership among communities. In general, readership in different communities 25 26 "appears to be related to the local orientation of the newspaper. For example, an early 1950s study of five community types showed that the more localized the paper the more community citizens read it.'1 Lynn reported similar results in his study of 91 non- metropolitan Tennessee counties. He found, in a survey of 1,487 people, that 73.3 percent of those who resided in counties adjacent to metropolitan areas of the state read both metropolitan and local newspapers. In contrast, only 54.9 percent of the respondents who did not live in counties adjacent to metropolitan areas read both metrOpolitan and local newspapers.2 A research report by Lynn and Bennett employing the same data as in Lynn's study showed additional differences in readership between peOple living in small cities and towns, and those living in rural and farm communities. Overall, 81.4 percent of those living in the small cities and towns read newspapers compared to 73 percent of those living in the rural and farm communities.3 Stevenson compared the frequency of newspaper readership between 442 residents of metropolitan and 587 residents of non-metropolitan areas of North Carolina. He found that 52 percent of the residents in the metropolitan area read a daily newSpaper compared to only 31 percent of 4 the residents of non-metropolitan areas. Olien, Donohue and Tichenor found results similar to 27 those of Stevenson when they studied 19 Minnesota communities. Their results showed that daily newspaper readership was higher in communities that had their own daily newspaper than in communities with semi-weekly and weekly newspapers.5 Other studies have examined the differences in the intensity and depth of reading among residents of different types of communities. Schramm found that the more localized the newspaper the more paragraphs of a story the readers read. He surveyed 200 readers of a weekly newspaper, with a circulation less than 3,000; a daily newspaper, circulation less than 10,000; a daily newspaper, circulation more than 300,000, and found that readers of the weekly read 92.3 percent of a lO-paragraph article; readers of the small daily read 75.1 percent; and readers of the large daily read 55.3 percent.6 In his study of four types of Minnesota communities, MacLean reported that the more localized the newspaper the more time readers spend reading a larger percentage of it. He noted that readers in a city with a population of more than 500,000 spent 50 minutes reading 17 percent of the local daily; readers in a city of 11,000 spent 42 minutes reading 30 percent of the local daily; readers in a village of 1,500 spent 45 minutes reading 40 percent of the local weekly; readers from rural homes spent 53 minutes reading 39 percent of the local weekly. From these results he 28 concluded that readers of more localized newspapers read more intensely. The lack of control on size of the newspapers involved and the lack of much variation in the amount of time spent reading by each of the groups seems to make the results questionable.7 Identifying Variables Three topics -- audience analysis, circulation and readership -- addressed extensively in the research literature are useful in identifying variables that appear important to the success of newspapers. In turn, distillation of studies on these topics presents a series of variables that can be separated into the three broadly inclusive areas of community demographics, community attachment and newspaper competition. Studies that have illuminate these areas are addressed below. Since the significance of variables on newspaper success may have changed over time, because of the societal and media changes that have occurred in the United States, the research results are presented in chronological order for each variable or set of variables to determine if trends emerge that might require consideration. CommunitygDemographics Most studies that explore newspaper readership, audience analysis and circulation have historically examined community demographics to identify correlations 29 among various community characteristics and residents' attention to newspapers. Population Because readers are necessary to support a newspaper, one would logically expect a strong correlation between the population in the area served by a newspaper and the circulation of the newspaper. Consequently, newspaper research has consistently identified/population as an important factor in newspaper circulation. Perhaps because of the inroads made by other media, however, pepulation appears to be weakening as a predictor of metropolitan daily newspaper circulation. Discussion of population as an important predictor of circulation apparently began with Thayer in the 19303. He stated that population density was the single most important variable affecting circulation.8 Unfortunately, Thayer did not cite any data to support his statement. Peterson examined the relationship between population growth and daily newspaper circulation between 1929 and 1957 and found that circulation kept pace with the increase in population. He reported that in 1929 one copy of a daily newspaper was circulated per 1.88 persons, compared to only a slight drop to 1.84 persons in 1957.9 In his comparison of population and circulation growth, however, Bagdikian reported that daily newspaper dih_l_._.—- H I 30 circulation growth was less than population growth in the period of 1945-1967. While 1.28 daily newspapers were circulated per family in 1945, that number dropped to 1.05 in 1967.10 ' More recently, Turpin found in his investigation of . newspaper circulation in 213 Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas between 1960 and 1970 that while circulation continued to lag behind population increases, population continued to be a reliable predictor of circulation. Ignoring other variables, Turpin found that population growth accounted for 78.3 percent of circulation increase.11 Stone's results from studying 19S daily newspapers, also between 1960 and 1970, disagreed with those of Turpin. He found that population during the decade accounted for only 26.5 percent of the change in circulation. As will be discussed below in the treatment of community attachment, Stone found other, more reliable variables.12 Editor g Publisher International Yearbook provides information on the weakening relationship between population and circulation in the 19703. Data show that between 1970 and 1980 population in the United States increased 11.5 percent while circulation of daily newspapers increased only 0.16 percent. 31 Households An alternative to population as a community characteristic affecting readership and circulation is the number of households in the community. The rationale is that no more than one edition of any given newspaper will ordinarily be required or desired by a single household. ,/4 Similar to the situation with the population variable, number of households has been a reliable predictor of circulation, although it has lagged behind circulation as a relevant predictor. Peterson found, for example, that between 1929 and 1957, despite some fluctuations, the number of households generally increased faster than circulation. He noted that in 1930 1.32 dailies were circulated per household nationwide. That figure decreased to 1.17 in 1940, increased to 1.25 in 1950, and fell again to 1.16 in 1957.13 Bogart singled out the household as the pertinent unit of consumption of newspapers in his treatise on the future of the daily newspaper. He added, however, a note of caution in interpreting results using number of households as predictors of circulation, because of the changes he saw before his 1975 report on the industry. He noted that while the number of daily newspapers per American household fell from 111 in 1960 to 92 in 1973, the changes in the household makeup were so profound that it was difficult to compare the changes between the two years. 32 He found, for instance, that the average household in 1960 consisted of 2.09 adults and 2.01 children, compared to 1.21 adults and 1.00 children in 1973.14 The most enthusiastic recommendation of number of households as a predictor of newspaper circulation came from Stone and Trotter in their 1981 study of the national newspaper industry. They reported from their sample of 195 daily newspapers that the number of city zone households predicted 72 percent of city zone circulation and 58 percent of total circulation. They employed the Editor 5 Publisher definition of city zone that says it is the area described as the corporate city or center, or the target area of circulation.15 Age, Education and Income Age, education and income are three variables with strong intercorrelations. They have also shown strong correlations with readership, frequency of readership and subscription in previous research. The relationship among the three variables seems obvious; in American society a personfis income generally increases as the personfs education and age increase. Most important to this study is the relationship that readership, readership frequency and subscriptions to a newspaper have with these three variables. Schramm and White were among the first researchers to ...—~ "‘\ 33 report on the influence of the variables on newspaper readership. They found, in a sample of 746 subjects from an Illinois city of 100,000 in the late 19403, that newspaper reading increased as age, education and economic status increased. Similar to later results, Schramm and White discovered that the relationship between readership and age was not linear. In comparing age with the percentage of total editorial content read by respondents, they found that: -- 9.5 percent of the paper was read by respondents aged 10 to 19 -- 18.3 percent was read by those aged 20 to 29 -- 21.0 percent was read by those aged 30-60 -- 19.4 percent was read by those over 60 Comparing percentage of the newspaper read with education, Schramm and White found that: -- 15.2 percent of the paper was read by respondents with only a grade school education -- 19.4 percent was read by those with a high school education -- 19.7 percent was read by those with a college education Schramm and White also separated their respondents in four groups, depending on what they referred to as economic status, although they didn't define what they meant by the term. They did find, however, that those respondents they 34 identified as having low economic status said they read 16.2 percent of the newspaper, while those with high economic status said they read 22.2 percent.16 Westley and Severin's 1961-62 study of 1,057 Wisconsin adults showed that the lower the level of income and education, the less likely a person was to read newspapers. In comparing nonreadership with the income of the head of the household they found: -- 19.3 percent nonreadership in households where the head of the household had an annual income below $3,000 -- 10.5 percent nonreadership where head of the household had an income of $5,000 to $7,499 -- 7.3 percent nonreadership where head of the household had an income of more that $10,00017 Similar results were found in Westley and Severinls comparison of education and nonreadership. Their study showed: -- 18.9 percent nonreadership for respondents with less than eight years of formal education -- 10.8 percent nonreadership for those with a high school education -- 5.8 percent nonreadership for those with 16 or more years of education18 The correlation Westley and Severin found between nonreadership and age tends to agree with the nonlinear 35 relationship reported by Schramm and White. The study showed: -- 18.9 percent nonreadership for respondents in their 203 -- 7.7 percent nonreadership for those in their 503 -- 24.0 percent nonreadership for those 70 and older19 In a partial replication of the Westley-Severin study, results of a 1974 study of 1,130 North Carolina residents tended to agree with the earlier study, except that the percentages of nonreaders in the North Carolina study were generally much higher than in the Wisconsin study. The North Carolina study showed: -- 51.4 percent nonreadership in households where the head of the household earned less than $3,000 annually -- 29.6 percent nonreadership where the head of the household earned $5,000 to $7,499 -- 11.5 percent nonreadership where the head of the household earned $10,000 or more20 Comparing education and nonreadership, the North Carolina study showed: -- 60.7 percent nonreadership among respondents with less than eight years formal education -- 19.7 percent nonreadership among those with a high school education 36 -- 6.0 percent nonreadership among those with at least 16 years of education21 Unlike earlier studies, the North Carolina study revealed no significant differences in ages of nonreaders except for a drop in readership in the segment of the population over 60. The curvilinear relationship again appeared, although it seemed less pronounced than in earlier studies. The study showed: -- 35.4 percent nonreadership among respondents in their 203 -- 29.0 percent nonreadership among those in their 503 -- 36.8 percent nonreadership among those 60 and older22 Rarick took a slightly different approach by looking at the relationship of the three variables with newspaper subscribers and non-subscribers in Richland County, Ohio. In his 1973 study of 324 adults, Rarick found a correlation between age, education, income and subscribers. His results showed: -- an 80 percent subscription rate among respondents aged 35 to 64, compared with 70 percent among other age groups -- an 84 percent subscription rate among those with at least a high school education, compared with 63 percent for those with less than a high school education In 37 an 81 percent subscription rate among those with an annual income above $5,000, compared with 58 percent for those with an income of $5,000 or 23 below Stevenson's 1977 study, cited earlier in the discussion of community types, he found that frequency of newspaper readership increased with age, education and income in both metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas. For his metrOpolitan Charlotte, NIL, sample he reported: 42 percent of the respondents age 18 to 34 read a newSpaper daily, compared with 60 percent of those age 35 or older 47 percent of those with less than a high school education read a newspaper daily, compared with 59 percent of those with more than a high school education 43 percent of those with an income of less than $15,000 read a newspaper daily, compared with 67 percent of those with an income of more than $15,00024 Although the corresponding percentages for the sample of non-metropolitan North Carolina adults were consistently smaller, a difference probably related to proximity and availability, the relationships were the same: 38 -- 28 percent of those age 18 to 34 read a newspaper daily, compared with 36 percent of those 35 and older -- 22 percent of those with less than a high school education read a newspaper daily, compared with 53 percent of those with more than a high school education -- 24 percent of those with an income of less than $15,000 read a newspaper daily, compared with 49 percent of those with an income of more than $15,00025 More recently, in 1980 Burgoon and Burgoon reported a significant correlation between age, income and newspaper readership among 4,020 respondents in a national study in Gannett newspaper markets. They further noted that education was highly correlated with age and income.26 Gallin and Salisbury, in another study reported in 1980, found age, income and education the most consistent indicators of newspaper readership frequency in a nationwide survey of 3,048 adults. Furthermore, they found that the relationships of the three variable with readership frequency were nearly linear. Defining frequent readers as those who read a newspaper at least four out of the past five weekdays, they found that: -- 57 percent of those with an income of $8,000 or less read a newspaper frequently 39 -- 69 percent of those with an income of $10,000- 14,999 read frequently -- 78 percent of those with an income of $25,000 or more read frequently27 Comparing education with frequent readership, Gallin and Salisbury found that: -- 57 percent of the respondents with less than a high school education were frequent readers -- 67 percent of those who had a high school degree were frequent readers -- 77 percent of those with more than 16 years of education were frequent readers28 When they compared age with frequency of readership, Gallin and Salisbury did not find the curvilinear relationship found earlier. For example, they found that: -- 55 percent of the respondents aged 25 to 29 were frequent newspaper readers -- 68 percent in the 35 to 45 age group were frequent - readers -- 76 percent in the 65 and older age group were frequent readers29 In addition to their consideration coincidentally as variables significant to the success of newspapers in many studies, age, education and income have also been identified as significant.individually or in paired combinations. 40 Age and Income McLeod and Choe investigated factors affecting newspaper circulation in Madison, Wis., by interviewing 1,352 randomly selected subjects at two-year intervals, in 1972, 1974 and 1976. Although they did not report statistics from their study, the researchers stated that as income increased so, too, did the probability that subjects read a newspaper daily and that subjects had ever read a newspaper. They also found that age was a strong predictor of reading a newspaper daily, with older subjects more likely to read daily.30 Education and Income Turpin investigated the relationship between income and education changes, and circulation changes in the decade of 1960-70 in 213 Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas. Although he noted that change in level of education had a minimal effect on change in circulation, he reported that change in level of education did account for 32.4 percent of circulation change.31 When compared with earlier studies, Turpin's results are unusual because he reported a negative effect of change in income on circulation. He found that the change in level of income correlated with a -4l.0 percent change in circulation.32 This implies that as the level of income increases over time, readership declines. In the context 41 of findings in previous studies, this result seems peculiar at the very least. However, it should be noted that what is reported is not the correlation between circulation and level of income but rather a change in the relationship of the two variables over a ten-year period. What the results more likely are indicating is that income increases have not kept pace with circulation increases, which is a social or labor problem, rather than a direct connection between the two variables. The negative relationship may also be reflecting the increase in the number of media choices that became available in the 19603, especially those available to the more affluent. Bogart, in his 1975 report on the status of the metropolitan daily newspaper industry, contradicted Turpin's findings. Bogart reported that two national studies on newspaper readers versus nonreaders showed that the poorer people were, and the less education they had, the less they read the newspapers. The first study, conducted by Audits and Surveys in 1972, found that 34 percent of daily newspaper readers had less than a high school education, compared with 47 percent of those who did not read a newspaper daily; 33 percent of daily newspaper readers had an income of less than $7,500, compared with 56 percent of those who did not read a newspaper daily.33 The second study, conducted by qu. Simmons, Inc., in 1973, corroborated the results of the first study and found 42 that 34 percent of daily newspaper readers had less than a high school education, compared with 50 percent of those who did not read a newspaper daily; 30 percent of daily newspaper readers had an income of less than $8,000, compared with 51 percent of those who did not read a newspaper daily.34 In a 1978 study of 706 residents in four communities under 30,000 population around Knoxville, Tenn., Shaw found remarkably consistent results in comparing daily newspaper readership with education and income. He reported that 76 percent of the subjects with less than a high school education and 75 percent of those with an income of less than $10,000 read a newspaper daily. He also reported that 88 percent of the subjects with at least a high school education and 86 percent of those with an income of at least $10,000 read a newspaper daily.35 Age Even among college students there has been a relationship shown between age and newspaper readership. In 1973 O'Keefe and Spetnagel investigated the news media consumption of 815 Colorado undergraduate students and found that as age increased so did newspaper readership. They reported that the number of newspapers read by the student subjects per week increased from 2.55 for students 43 age 17-18, to 3.44 for those 19-20, to 3.75 for those 21- 22, to 4.94 for those age 23 and over.36 Education In a 1963 study of 203 Redwood, Calif., males Samuelson, Carter and Ruggels found that the more education a subject had the more he was likely to read a newspaper.37 Schweitzer is one of the few researchers who failed to find a positive relationship between education and newspaper use. In his 1976 study of young (aged 18-24) apartment dwellers, in a southeastern United States community of 172,000, he found that education was not a reliable predictor of whether the subjects subscribed to newspapers. He did note, however, that the results could have been affected by the unusually high level of education he found in his sample. Less than five percent of his sample reported having less than a high school education.38 Income Although income has exhibited a relatively strong correlation with circulation in studies that have looked at communities at a point in time, income has increased more rapidly than circulation in recent decades and therefore should not be expected to be a good predictor over time. In an early study of this relationship, however, Kinter found that income predicted 41.62 percent of circulation in his study of changes in the industry between 1918 and 1943. 44 He pointed out that it was not income pe_r_ ee, however, which he believed was responsible for the relationship, but rather other social and labor factors such as availability of jobs, cost of housing, and so forth.39 Peterson looked at the same relationship as did Kinter, but for the years 1929-57. He also found that gains in circulation lagged far behind those of personal income.40 These results should not be surprising, since during these time periods newspaper circulation was consistently strong while income rose rapidly. In other words, these results could be more a function of rising income than of falling circulation. In a more recent study, in 1981, Stone and Trotter found that per capita income was insignificant in predicting circulation and that other variables were more reliable, as discussed elsewhere in this review.41 Community Attachment Community attachment is a subset of community demographics, which considers the degree to which residents in a given community feel they are a part of the community and are in some way committed to it. Researchers have included measurements of community attachment in studies of newspaper readership and circulation in recognition of the 45 relationship between attachment and the desire of people to know what is occurring in their community.42 For example, it has been found that when people move from the central city of a metropolitan area to the suburbs, they continue to subscribe to the metropolitan daily newspaper until they become attached to the suburb, and then switch their subscriptions to the suburban newspaper.43 Home Ownership The most consistently reliable variable employed to measure community attachment has been home ownership. Home ownership is a major commitment.for most people and therefore represents a decision to remain in a community for more than just the short term. Edelstein and Larsen in 1960 investigated the relationship between orientation to the community and newspaper readership among 735 receivers of a free- distribution, urban weekly in Seattle, Wash. They found that the more strongly the respondents were positively oriented toward the community the more likely they were to read the weekly. The most reliable measure they found in measuring orientation toward the community was what they termed stability of residence, which consisted of the combined variables of home ownership and length of ownership.44 46 Stone studied the correlation among circulation and several variables in a nationwide sample of 195 daily newspapers for the decade 1960-70. He found that 49 percent of the circulation could be explained by the number of households that were owned by their occupants. Note that in the earlier discussion of population, Stone reported that population accounted for only 26.5 percent of circulation.45 More recently, in 1981, Stamm and Fortini studied the relationship between newspaper use (subscription and readership) and community involvement among 800 respondents in the Greater Seattle area. They measured community involvement by asking a series of questions which probed how much respondents interacted with their neighbors, how often they had ideas for improving the community, etc. The researchers found a significant, though weak, correlation of .07 between years of residency in the community and community involvement, and a .23 correlation between home ownership and involvement.46 Voting While the correlation Stamm and Fortini found between ownership and involvement was fairly strong, they also found an even better correlation L34) between community involvement and the respondentfs voting in the most recent election.47 47 Competition Consideration of competition from other new3papers as a factor in newspaper survival and success began as early as the late 19203. At that time McCoy noted that Minnesota had many cities with more than one weekly newspaper. He found two towns with population under 500 that had two weeklies, 11 with pOpulation 500 to 1,000 with two weeklies, and 68 towns with pOpulation of more than 1,000 that had two weeklies. He noted that 90 percent of the weekly‘s circulation was derived from the town of publication and the immediately adjacent rural area. But he also recognized that, because of improvements in transportation, "trade basins" were becoming consolidated. For the purposes of the newspapers, be defined trade basins as those areas where a newspaper has a competitive . advantage because of proximity and local coverage. As a result of consolidation, he saw that the need for large numbers of weekly newspapers was rapidly coming to end. He predicted that only when competition had reduced the weekly to one for each of the towns within the expanded, consolidated trade basin, plus a daily newspaper serving the total trade basin, would the newspaper industry stabilize. Until that happened, he foresaw a period of heated competition within the weekly newspaper industry.48 Willey and Weinfeld agreed with McCoy. In the time period they studied -- 1900 to 1930 -- the competitive 48 struggle among weekly newspapers resulted in a rapid increase in single-newspaper communities. They found in the three decades they examined that the percentage of communities, population of less than 15,000, with more than one newspaper declined from 32.9 percent in 1900 to 13.5 percent in 1930. Willey and Weinfeld also noted that competition was taking its toll of daily newspapers in the the more populated communities. They found that daily newspapers had declined from 1,967 in 1900 to 1,923 in 1930.49 While newspapers were competing with others at their own level, th small weeklies against small weeklies, researchers seem to agree for the most part that the newspapers do not compete appreciably with newspapers at other levels. In the early 19603 Bogart and Orenstein surveyed newspaper readership of 503 heads of households in a city of 25,000, situated in an area between major metropolitan centers, and concluded that there was little competition between the levels because newspapers at each level provided their own unique news coverage and focus of interest. They found no evidence to indicate that readership of a weekly newspaper in any way affected readership of a daily.50 Bogart went on to examine competition in the metropolitan daily newspaper field between 1960 and 1973 and found evidence that such competition continued to 49 contribute to the decline in circulation. In 25 metrOpolitan communities with competing dailies, he found that 33 percent of the papers failed, 39 percent showed no significant change in circulation, and only 28 percent showed circulation gains. By contrast, in 47 communities with noncompeting dailies, none failed, 40 percent showed no significant change in circulation, and 60 percent showed circulation gains.51 In his study of trends in newspaper ownership for 1880-1971, Nixon illustrated the results over time of competition among dailies and the trend toward monopoly. He found that in 1880 there were 38.6 percent of the cities with only one daily, compared with 42.9 percent in 1910, 79.4 percent in 1930, 91.6 percent in 1945 and 97.5 percent in 1971. While Nixon found the competition among daily newspapers was resulting in their decline in numbers, he agreed with the earlier statements about lack of competition among newspaper media at different levels and noted that they perform distinct functions and therefore supplement and complement each other rather than compete.52 In his "umbrella" concept of the newspaper industry, Rosse apparently provided the confirmation for McCoy‘s earlier prediction that newspapers within a given level of the industry will continue to decline until there is essentially no competition within any of the levels. The umbrella analogy Rosse used refers to the density, or 50 concentration, of circulation within the newspaper's circulation area. At the center of the area, circulation, or the density of the shadow cast by the umbrella, is densest. As the distance from the central area increases, circulation, and the density of the shadow, is reduced. Rosse said that at the time he developed his umbrella theory, in the early 19703, that except for the most populous of areas there was virtually no competition between newspapers in the same level, confirming McCoy's prediction.S3 Rosse went on to explain that it is at the edges of the shadow cast by each newspaper at each level that competition occurs. But rather than competition between newspapers on the same level, the competition is among newspapers from the levels above and below.54 Rosse's Dual Demand Models Unique within the literature examined for this review was the approach employed by economist James N. Rosse. He considered newspapers as products that appeal to two audiences: readers and advertisers. He therefore develOped models that measured the contributions of various variables to the demands of the two audiences.55 Rosse's models are useful for this study for two reasons. First, his methodology lends itself well to employment in this study, as explained in the following chapter. Second, and of more 51 value to the present discussion, Rosse‘s models introduce additional variables that might be useful in this study. Construction of the models employed regression analysis, an approach that shows the specific contribution of each independent variable in predicting a dependent variable. For example, if an analysis indicates that an independent variable's contribution is 10.00, it means that for each unit increase in the independent variable one would predict a ten unit increase in the dependent variable. In his model of reader demand for metropolitan daily newspapers Rosse employed circulation as the dependent variable and found the relationships indicated in the following table. TABLE 1 DEMAND FOR CIRCULATION56 Subscription price -.650 Product quality index .0102 News and feature space .651 Advertising space .468 Number of households .333 Income per household -.l97 In this model Rosse defined product quality as the amount of money it cost a newspaper to produce a published 52 column inch of editorial content. The definition assumed that the more money a newspaper was willing to devote to producing editorial content, the higher the quality of the product.57 The model introduces four variables not previously discussed in the literature review: subscription price, product quality, news and feature space, and advertising space. The model shows that the higher the cost of subscribing, the lower was the circulation. It also indicates that as the quality of the newspaper and the amount of news and advertising content increased, circulation increased. Consistent with results cited from other studies the number of households had a positive relationship with circulation, and income had a negative relationship. The second model represents the major departure from previous newspaper research. It employed the amount of advertising space in newspapers as the dependent variable to measure the demand from advertisers. The regression analysis resulted in the relationships indicated in the following table. 53 TABLE 2 DEMAND FOR ADVERTISIN658 Advertising price -l.60 Product quality index -.00944 Circulation 1.60 ROP color index .0393 Retail sales per household .394 Index of media competition -.169 In this second model Rosse defined ROP (run-of-press) color simply as the availability of color to newspaper advertisers. The index of media competition represented the natural logarithm of the total number of media other than the metropolitan daily serving the area. This was necessary because he found competition to have a curvilinear relationship with demand for advertising space. The transformation converted the variable to a more linear relationship which is necessary in regression analysis.59 The results show that advertising price and competition from other media had a negative relationship with demand by advertisers for space in metropolitan daily newspapers. There is also the peculiar indication that product quality had a negative relationship with demand for advertising space. However, the relationship is weak and may be indicating that there is no significant relationship between the two variables. The independent variables of 54 circulation, ROP color and retail sales per household all show positive relationships with demand for advertising space. ENDNOTES lMorris Janowitz, The Communitnyress ipHap‘Urban Setting (Glencoe, 111.: The Free Press, 1952), pp. 132-133. 2Jerry R. Lynn, "Newspaper Readership and Proximity to Metropolitan Markets,” ANPA News Research Report #34, June 18, 1982, pp. 7-8. 3Jerry R. Lynn and Ellen M. Bennett, "Newspaper Readership Patterns in Non-Metropolitan Communities,” Newspaper Research Journal, 1:20 (1980). 4Robert L. Stevenson, "The Frequency of Newspaper Readership,“ ANPA News Research Report #7, Oct. 21, 1977, p. 6. 5C.N. Olien, G.P.. Donohue and P.J. Tichenor, "Community Structure and Media USe,'iJournalism Quarterly, 55:449-450 (1978). 6Wilbur Schramm, "Measuring Another Dimension of Newspaper Readership," Journalism Quarterly, 24:293-296 (1947). 7Malcolm S. MacLean Jr., "Mass Media Audiences: City, Small City, Village and Farm,” Journalism Quarterly, 29:275 (1952). 8Frank Thayer, Newspaper Business Management (New York: D. Appleton - Century Company, 1938), P. 87. 9Wilbur Peterson, "Is Daily Circulation Keeping Pace with the Nationfs Growth?” Journalism Quarterly, 36:16-20 (1959). 55 56 10Ben H. Bagdikian, The Information Machines: Their impact 9_n_ Meg and the Media (New York: Harper & Row, Publishers, 1971): p. 54. 11William H; Turpin, ”Newspaper Circulation Growth and Rise in Personal Income,” Journalism Quarterly, 51:524 (1974). lzGerald C. Stone, ”Community Commitment: A Predictive Theory of Daily Newspaper Circulation,” Journalism Quarterly, 54:510-511 (1977). l3Peterson, "Is Daily Circulation Keeping Pace with the Nationfs Growth?" pp. 17-18. 14Leo Bogart, “The Future of the Metropolitan Daily,” Journalism 9; Communication, 25:31 (1975). 15Gerald C. Stone and Edgar P. Trotter, ”Community Traits and Prediction of Circulation," Journalism Quarterly, 58:460, 462 (1981). 16Wilbur Schramm and David M. White, ”Age, Education, Economic Status: Factors in Newspaper Readership," Journalism Quarterly, 26:150-151 (1949). 17Bruce H. Westley and Werner J. Severin, "A Profile of the Daily Newspaper Non-Reader," Journalism Quarterly, 41:46 (1964). 18Ibid., p. 46. 19Ibid., p. 47. 20Jeanne Penrose, David H. Weaver, Richard R. Cole and Donald Lewis Shaw, "The Newspaper Nonreader 10 Years Later: A Partial Replication of Westley - Severin,” Journalism Quarterly, 51:632 (1974). ZlIbid., p. 632. 57 22Ibid., p. 632. 23Galen R. Rarick, "Differences Between Daily Newspaper Subscribers and Nonsubscribers," Journalism Quarterly, 50:269-270 (1973). 24Stevenson, ”The Frequency of Newspaper Readership," pp. 2, 6. 25Ibid., p. 2, 6. 26Judee K. Burgoon and Michael Burgoon, “Predictors of Newspaper Readership,” Journalism Quarterly, 57:596 (1980). 27Albert E. Gallin and Paul A. Salisbury, "Three Ways of Assessing Newspaper Readership Demographics,” Newspaper Research Journal, 1:28, 34 (1980). 281bid., p. 34. 291bid., p. 34. 30Jack M. McLeod and Sun Yuel Choe, "An Analysis of Five Factors Affecting Newspaper Circulation," ANPA News Research Report #10, March 14, 1978, p. 2. 31Turpin, "Newspaper Circulation Growth and Rise in Personal Income,” p. 524. 32Ibid., p. 524. 33Bogart, "The Future of the Metropolitan Daily," p. 33. 34Ibid., p. 33. 35Eugene F. Shaw, ”Newspaper Reading in Small Towns,” ANPA News Research Report #12, June 9, 1978, PP. 2, 5, 7. 58 36Garreth J. O'Keefe Jr. and H.T. Spetnagel, "Patterns of College UndergraduatesJ‘Use of Selected News Media," Journalism Quarterly, 50:544, 546 (1973). 37Selden C. Menefee, "Newspaper Circulation and Urban Regions,” Sociology and Social Research, 21:63-66 (1936- 37). 38John C. Schweitzer, "Comparison of Young Subscribers and Nonsubscribers to Newspapers," Journalism Quarterl , 53:289-290 (1976). 39Charles V. Kinter, "Effect of Differences in Income on Newspaper Circulation,” Journalism Quarterly, 22:230 (1945). 40Peterson, "Is Daily Circulation Keeping Pace with the Nation's Growth?" pp. 19-20. 4:I'Stone and Trotter, "Community Traits and Prediction of Circulation,” p. 463. 42Leo Bogart and Frank E. Orenstein, "Mass Media and Community Identity in an Interurban Setting," Journalism Quarterly, 42:188 (1965). 43Frank W. Rucker, Newspaper Circulation. . . What. . . Where.. . and How (Ames, Iowa: The Iowa State College Press, 1958) p. 21. 44Alex 8. Edelstein and Otto N. Larsen, "The Weekly Press' Contribution to a Sense of Urban Community," Journalism Quarterly, 37:490-491, 493. 458tone, "Community Commitment: A predictive Theory of Daily Newspaper Circulation,” p. 511. 46Keith R. Stamm and Lisa Fortini—Campbell, ”Community Ties and Newspaper Use," ANPA News Research Report #33, Oct. 30, 1981, p. 4. 59 471616., p. 4. 48Bruce R. McCoy, "Competition and Consolidation in the Community Weekly Field," Journalism Quarterly, 7:24-25 (1930). 49Malcolm M. Willey and William Weinfeld, "The Country Weekly and the Emergence of 'One-Newspaper Places,‘m Journalism Quarterly, 11:250-253 (1934). 50Bogart and Orenstein, "Mass Media and Community Identity in an Interurban Setting," pp. 186, 188, 51Bogart, "The Future of the Metropolitan Daily," p. 39. 52Raymond B. Nixon, ”Trends in st. Newspaper Ownership: Concentration with Competition," in Mass Media and Society, Alan wells, ed. (Palo Alto, Calif.: Mayfield Publishing Co., 1975) (2nd Ed.), p. 14. 53James N. Rosse and James Dertouzos, ”Economic Issues in Mass Communication Industriesq' Proceedings pf gm; Symposium pp Media Concentration, v01. 1, Bureau of Competition, Federal Trade Commission, Dec. 14, 15, pp. 148-155. 54Ibid., p. 154. 55Ibid., pp. 449-453. 56Ibid., pp. 453. 57James N. Rosse, ”Estimating Cost Function Parameters Without Using Cost Data: Illustrated Methodology,” Econometrica, 38:2, p. 261. 58Rosse and Dertouzos, "Economic Issues in Mass Communication Industries," p. 453. 60 59Rosse, ”Estimating Cost Function Parameters Without Using Cost Data,” p. 261. CHAPTER III METHODOLOGY The method employed in this dissertation will address two questions concerning the weekly newspaper serving primarily a single suburb. The first question is: What variables have been significant in influencing the demand for circulation and advertising, over time, of the suburban weekly? Stated another way, what are the evolutionary factors at work in developing the suburban weekly newspaper over a specific time period? The second question is: What variables have been significant in predicting the existence of a weekly newspaper in a given suburb? Definitions Before discussing the research design employed in this study, it is important to define certain terms employed, since their definitions will affect the results. Suburb For the purposes of this study, a suburb will be defined as an area, primarily of residences, having its own government, name identity and definable political boundaries, located outside but contiguous to the political 61 62 boundaries of a central city of at least 50,000 population, and with no intervening rural areas.1 This is essentially the U;S. Bureau of Management and Budgetfis definition of a Standard Metropolitan Statistical Area (SMSA), but with the central city removed. The major departures from the definition of an SMSA are the stipulations that a suburb must be contiguous_to the central city and with no intervening rural areas. The stipulations are intended to eliminate those communities that are not expected to be greatly influenced by the central city because of their geographic detachment from it. In some cases, for instance, these outlying communities are hundreds of miles across farms, forests or deserts from the central city. Suburban Newspaper For the purposes of this study, a suburban newspaper will be defined as a paid, free or controlled distribution news publication that is issued at fixed, regular intervals but not less than weekly, contains a minimum of 25 percent editorial material and circulates primarily in a suburb or suburbs.2 Time Frame To gain insight into the variables that might provide indicators of an evolutionary process in the suburban weekly field, it was necessary to examine them over a 63 period of time. In this study, it was decided to measure possible changes in the variables by comparing measurements between the years of 1970 and 1980. These years were chosen for three reasons. First, 1970 and 1980 -- UAR Census years -- offered readily-available data for suburbs. Generally,-year-to-year data, between census years, are available only for the larger, more populous metrOpolitan areas. Second, the ten-year period was considered a minimum to detect significant changes. Third, the 1980 endpoint should make the study as current as possible under the circumstances. To obtain as clear a picture as possible of the mechanisms at work in the areas under study, the results for the circulation and advertising demand models will be presented both for the individual years examined and also for the changes between the years. For the newspaper existence model, results will be presented for only the two observed years and not between the years for reasons which will be further discussed later in the data analysis section. A Demand Model for Circulation This part of the research will borrow heavily from models developed by Rosse in his study of metropolitan daily newspapers. Rosse's approach considered the newspaper a product demanded by two groups of customers: readers, who are influenced by certain factors that affect 64 their desire to buy a given newspaper; and advertisers, who are influenced by certain factors which affect their desire to purchase space in a given newspaper.3 From his approach to the newspaper as a dual product, Rosse developed two demand models, one for demand by readers (subscriptions) and the other for demand by advertisers for space. Rosse's models and the modifications employed in this study are discussed individually below. Rosse's Determinants of Demand or Subscriptions to a Newspaper The dependent quantity variable is the number of daily subscribers The quantity demanded depends on (independent variables): Variables controlled or directly influenced by the firm Subscription prices News and feature space Advertising space Newspaper product quality Micro-environmental variables (community factors) Number of households in the market Household personal income Extent of media competition 65 As might be expected, in adapting a method intended for the study of metropolitan dailies to use with suburban weeklies, it was necessary to employ modifications for expeditious and practical reasons, as well as to extend the method. The first modification of Rosse's model of demand for circulation involved eliminating the independent variable of newspaper quality. Rosse's newspaper quality variable was an index based on the amount of money the newspaper devoted to the production of a column inch of editorial material. This measurement allowed the differentiation between dailies which obtained “cheap" editorial material by relying on wire services and dailies which bore the expense of employing their own editorial personnel to produce editorial material customized to the newspaper audiences.5 The quality variable was eliminated as an independent predictor of circulation for three reasons. First, there was the question of whether the variable was important to the study. While Rosse considered such a measurement important to determine the efforts of a daily newspaper to obtain original material, the suburban weekly is different. For instance, since suburban weeklies generally cover news generated only from within the suburb, no wire service is available for the papers to subscribe to or join for local copy. Therefore, out of necessity the bulk of editorial material is staff produced. As a consequence, the cost of 66 producing news depends more on the going wages for editorial personnel in a given part of the country than on the commitment of a suburban weekly to devote resources to news gathering. The second reason newspaper quality was not considered crucial to the model of suburban weekly circulation concerned the results Rosse obtained in including it in the model of daily circulation. He found that by increasing quality one unit, he could only expect to increase circulation .01 units.6 Given the expected positive attention by residents to the suburban weekly, the quality index could be expected to have an even weaker correlation to circulation. Finally, while it is usually easy to obtain economic data from metropolitan daily newspapers that are often publicly held, obtaining similar data from privately owned suburban weeklies would be difficult. While newspaper quality was not considered important in predicting suburban weekly circulation in Rosse's results, competition from other media was considered important. This is also contrary to Rosse's model. Oddly enough, Rosse considered intermedia competition important to demand for advertising but not to circulation. It seems logical that competition from other media will have an effect on circulation since the various media are contesting for the attention of the residents in a community. 67 In addition to the independent variables Rosse included in his analysis of circulation, this study adds additional community demographic and community attachment variables which emerged from the literature review as potentially useful in predicting circulation. The additional variables to be considered are: Communityldemographics population age education Communitylattachment home ownership voting patterns Hypotheses The results of the circulation study will be presented for the years 1970 and 1980, and also for the change between the two yearsm Therefore, two hypotheses are required for each independent variable. The first hypothesis will address the expected relationship at the static time points. The second hypothesis will address the expected change in relationship over the ten-year period. In the first difference statistical model which will be employed in the study, the results, over time, will be 68 presented as a measurement of the accelerating or decelerating importance of a given independent variable to the dependent variable. The same procedure will be employed for the model of demand for advertising. Variables controlled py the newspaper Subscription ppige As is true of most nonessential products available for sale, the cost of the product to the consumer will affect its sales. When the price goes up, sales go down, when the price goes down, sales go up. Rosse found that subscription price had a relatively strong effect on the circulation of daily newspapers.7 While the subscription prices of suburban weeklies are not generally as high as those of daily newspapers, they should still be expected to have a negative effect on circulation. Therefore, in the static time period model: Hypothesis 1: Subscription price has a negative effect on the circulation of the weekly newspaper that serves primarily only one suburb. ' When daily newspaper subscription prices are adjusted to control for changes in the cost of living, the cost of subscribing decreased somewhat more than circulation increased between 1970 and 1978.8 Therefore, this relationship should be indicated by a negative correlation 69 over time. Assuming suburban weeklies followed this trend, one would expect that in the change over time model: Hypothesis 2: Over time, subscription price has a negative effect on the circulation of the weekly newspaper that serves primarily only one suburb. News and feature space Since the traditional role of the newspaper is to provide news to its readers, the amount of space devoted to news and, the softer side of news, features should have an effect on reader demand for the newspaper. Indeed, studies which have addressed this relationship have found that in general increasing the space devoted to news and features has resulted in increased circulation.9 Therefore, in the static time period model: Hypothesis 3: News and feature space has a positive effect on the circulation of the weekly newspaper that serves primarily only one suburb. Bogart noted that in the period of 1970-78 daily newspaper circulation increased only slightly. In the same time period the number of pages in the newspapers devoted to news and features increased significantly.10 Consequently, one would expect a decreasing correlation between circulation and news space, although it should remain positive. However, the decreasing correlation may 70 actually be an indication that newspapers are devoting more space to news than is perhaps justified by circulation. Assuming suburban weeklies have followed this trend, one would predict that in the change over time model: Hypothesis 4: Over time, news and feature space has a positive effect on the circulation of the weekly newspaper that serves primarily only one suburb. Advertisinglspace Rosse and others have pointed out that people read newspapers not only for news and features, but also for advertising. Newspaper advertising content fills the need for relatively detailed product information which cannot normally be filled by other media. It is not surprising that research has indicated a consistently positive relationship between space devoted to advertising and circulation.11 It is possible that advertising space could be increased to the point where subscriptions would decrease as subscribers viewed the paper as more of an advertising vehicle than a news medium. However, it seems unlikely that this could occur in suburban weeklies with their limited space. Therefore, in the static time period model: Hypothesis 5: Advertising space has a positive effect on the circulation of the weekly newspaper that serves primarily only one suburb. 71 -Simi1ar to his findings regarding the number of pages devoted to news and features, Bogart found that in the period of 1967-73 metropolitan daily newspapers had increased advertising space faster than they increased circulation.12 Consequently, one would expect a decreasing correlation between circulation and advertising space, although it should remain positive. Assuming this trend continued through 1980 and that suburban weeklies followed the trend, one would expect in the change over time model: Hypothesis 6: Over time, advertising space has a positive effect on the circulation of the weekly newspaper that serves primarily only one suburb. Community,demographics Population In the studies that have looked at papulation as a predictor of circulation at a point in time, in general the relationship has been positive and significant.13 This seems logical since members of a population constitute the subscribers to a newspaper. Therefore, in the static time period model: Hypothesis 7: The population in a suburb has a positive effect on the circulation of the weekly newspaper that serves primarily only one suburb. 72 Even a cursory look at readily available data indicates that there should be a strong, positive relationship between population and suburban weekly newspapers. Between 1970 and 1980, population in the major metropolitan areas of the country increased by 10.2 percent.14 In the same time period, circulation of weekly newspapers increased 36 percent.15 Therefore, this relationship should be indicated by a positive correlation over time. Assuming this relationship also held in the suburbs, it can be expected that in the change over time model: Hypothesis 8: Over time, population in a suburb has a positive effect on the circulation of the weekly newspaper that serves primarily only one suburb. Number pf households Some researchers have stated that the number of households in a community is superior to raw pOpulation statistics in predicting newspaper circulation, since population in no way takes into consideration the number of people per household.16 The argument follows that, despite changes in the makeup of the American household over the years, this unit represents potential circulation in a community, since one would expect a household to only want one subscription to any given newspaper. Therefore, in the static time period model: 73 Hypothesis 9: The number of households in a suburb has a positive effect on the circulation of the weekly newspaper that serves primarily only one suburb. While the number of households in a community apparently is positively related to newspaper circulation, research indicates that the number of households has increased faster than circulation.l7 Consequently, one would expect a decreasing correlation between circulation and the number of households, although it should remain positive. Therefore, in the change over time model: Hypothesis 10: Over time, number of households in a suburb has a positive effect on the circulation of the weekly newspaper that serves primarily only one suburb. 392 In general, age of residents in a community has been consistently related to circulation of daily newspapers. Research results indicate that the older the residents in a community, the greater the circulation.18 Therefore, in the static time period model: Hypothesis 11: The age of residents in a suburb has a positive effect on the circulation of the weekly newspaper that serves primarily only one suburb. The positive relationship between age and circulation 74 does not appear to hold when viewed over time. Research results indicate that, in general, daily circulation is not holding up well when compared with any age groups but especially with older people.19 Consequently, one would expect a decreasing correlation between circulation and age, although it should remain positive. Therefore, in the change over time model: Hypothesis 12: Over time, age of residents in a suburb has a positive effect on the circulation of the weekly newspaper that serves primarily only one suburb. Education The relationship between education and circulation has been consistent throughout the research.20 The more years of formal education a person has accumulated, the more likely it is that the person will subscribe to a newspaper. Therefore, in the static time period model: Hypothesis 13: The number of years of education of residents in a suburb has a positive effect on the circulation of the weekly. newspaper that serves primarily only one suburb. Following erosion in the relationship between education and daily newspaper circulation in the 19603, the trend appears to have turned around and research now indicates that the relationship is strengthening.21 Therefore, this relationship should be indicated by a 75 positive correlation over time. Assuming suburban weeklies have followed the trend of dailies, it is expected that in the change over time model: Hypothesis 14: Over time, the number of years of education of residents in a suburb has a positive effect on the circulation of the weekly newspaper that serves primarily only one suburb. Income As noted earlier, income and education are closely related for the reason that the accumulation of education should make a person a more desirable employee and therefore a higher paid one. And indeed, as was true of the relationship between education and circulation, the relationship between income and circulation has been consistently positive.22 Therefore, in the static time period model: Hypothesis 15: The level of income of residents in a suburb has a positive effect on the circulation of the newspaper that serves primarily only one suburb. As noted in the literature review, only one study has addressed the relationship between circulation and income over time. Results in the study indicated that, between 1960 and 1970, daily newspaper circulation did not keep pace with increases in income.23 One would therefore expect a decreasing correlation between circulation and 76 income, although it should remain positive. Assuming this trend continued through to 1980, and that suburban weeklies followed the trend, it can be expected that in the change over time model: Hypothesis 16: Over time, the income level of residents in a suburb has a positive effect on the circulation of the weekly newspaper that serves primarily only one suburb. Communitylattachment Home ownership To paraphrase earlier comments, home ownership represents a commitment to remain in the community for an extended period of time. Home ownership in a community gives the resident a vested interest in property taxes, community improvements, etcu and, consequently, a desire for the information which is generally available only from the local newspaper. Hence the strong correlations which 24 have been found between home ownership and circulation. Therefore, in the static time period model: Hypothesis 17: Home ownership by residents in a suburb has a positive effect on the circulation of the weekly newspaper that serves primarily only one suburb. In his research on daily newspaper circulation, Stone found that between 1960 and 1970 number of owned homes in a community had a very high correlation with circulation.25 77 Assuming this trend continued through 1980 and that it was also followed by suburban weeklies, it is expected that in the change over time model: Hypothesis 18: Over time, the percentage of homes owned by residents in a suburb has a positive effect on the circulation of the weekly newspaper that serves primarily only one suburb. Voting patterns A variable which has been considered only recently, but with a great deal of logic, to represent community attachment is whether or not residents of a community vote.26 Given the poor voter turnout in American elections, local or national, the act of voting has been utilized as a measurement of the degree of involvement by a person. In the case of the suburban dweller, this should be particularly important because of the greater community involvement described in the introduction. It follows that the more involved a person is, the more that person will seek information on the community and therefore attend to the local newspaper. Therefore, in the static time period model: Hypothesis 19: Voting by residents of a suburb has a positive effect on the circulation of the weekly newspaper that serves primarily only one suburb. There does not appear to be any research available to 78 indicate an expected relationship between voting and circulation over time. If, however, there is an increase in the relationship between circulation and home ownership, it seems likely that there will be a similar increase between circulation and voting, since both voting and home ownership have been shown to be strong predictors of circulation, at least for daily newspapers. This relationship should be indicated by a positive correlation over time. Therefore, in the change over time model it is expected that: Hypothesis 20: Over time, voting by residents of a suburb has a positive effect on the circulation of the weekly newspaper that serves primarily only one suburb. Competition The literature suggests that there is no significant competition between daily newspapers and the other media. The media have generally been found to be complementary rather than competitive.27 Whether this is also true of suburban weeklies remains to be seen. Within the newspaper medium, however, Rosse's umbrella theory of new3paper competition, described in the literature review, suggests that any significant competition for the suburban weekly will likely come from one of two sources. First, although metropolitan daily newspapers per se seem to offer little competition, a more 79 localized form of competition could emerge from zoned editions of a metropolitan daily. Second, competition could also arise from other suburban newspapers which originate outside a given suburb but which target news coverage for the suburb.28 Taking the media into consideration as a group, it should be expected that intermedia competition will result in reduced circulation. Therefore, in the static time period model it is expected that: Hypothesis 21: Competition from other media which serve a suburb has a negative effect on the circulation of the weekly newspaper that serves primarily only one suburb. If intermedia competition has a negative effect on suburban weekly circulation at two given points in time, 1970 and 1980, it will undoubtedly have an increasingly negative effect between the two years. Except for the decrease in the number of metropolitan dailies serving population centers, generally intermedia competition for consumers is increasing rather than decreasing, making competition more important as a predictor of circulation over time. This relationship should be indicated by a negative correlation. Therefore, in the change over time model it is expected that: 80 Hypothesis 22: Over time, competition from other media which serve a suburb has a negative effect on the circulation of the weekly newspaper that serves primarily only one suburb. Metropolitan newspaper price Another method of measuring competition from metropolitan daily newspapers is to take into account the subscription price. It is reasonable to assume that the higher the subscription price, the less attractive the metropolitan daily will be to potential subscribers in the suburbs. Therefore, in the static time period model it is expected that: Hypothesis 23: The subscription price of metropolitan daily newspapers has a positive effect on the circulation of the weekly newspaper that serves primarily only one suburb. When daily newspaper subscription price is adjusted to control for changes in the cost of living, the cost of subscribing appears to have increased less than weekly circulation between 1970 and 1980.29 This relationship should be indicated by a positive correlation over time. Therefore, assuming suburban weeklies have followed the same trend, one would expect that in the change over time model: 81 Hypothesis 24: Over time, the subscription price of metropolitan daily newspapers has a positive effect on the circulation of the weekly newspaper that serves primarily only one suburb. A Demand Model for Advertising Rosse's second model for the newspaper as a dual product represents the demand for space by advertisers. Similar to his demand model for circulation, this model predicts advertising space demanded by advertisers on the basis of variables which are controlled by the newspaper and variables which define the community”s environment and in some way affect the attractiveness of the newspaper's audience to advertisers. Rosse's Determinants of Demand £050 Advertising Space in a Newspaper The dependent quantity variable is column inches of advertising space The quantity demanded depends on (independent variables): Variables controlled or directly influenced by the firm Price of advertising space Circulation Quality of the newspaper product Availability of run-of-press color Micro-environmental variables (community factors) Retail sales in the community Extent of media competition 82 Only the elimination of two independent variables and the addition of three others are necessary to adapt the model for this study. The first elimination is the variable for quality of the newspaper product. As noted earlier in the discussion of the circulation demand model, Rosse's results indicated that his newspaper quality index was not an important predictor of circulation. In the case of the results in the advertising demand model, quality was an even weaker predictor.31 In fact, higher quality actually resulted in reduced demand for advertising, which seems to indicate that some other force may be at work. Perhaps, for instance, newspaper quality, which Rosse defined as the expenditures devoted to producing the editorial product, may translate into higher prices charged to advertisers to cover the editorial expenditures. In addition, as explained earlier, it would be extremely difficult if not impossible to obtain the information necessary to adequately test this variable. Therefore, product quality will not be included in this study. The second elimination from Rosse's model is the variable for run-of—press (ROP) color. In his research on daily newspapers, Rosse used an index for ROP color in which a newspaper was given a zero if it only had the capacity to print black and white advertising, and a one if it could print color. Even in daily newspapers the variable proved to be a weak predictor of advertising, with 83 a one unit increase in rop color resulting in only a .0393 unit increase in advertising space.32 Whether the variable is a good predictor of advertising space is probably moot, however, since it is the rare suburban weekly which can afford to print color. Consequently rop color will not be included in this study. Hypotheses Variables controlled 9; directly influenced py the newspaper gglge pf advertising space Dissimilar to the subscription price of a newspaper and its effect on circulation, the price charged for advertising space can be expected to have an indirect, positive effect on the amount of space demanded by advertisers, although Rosse found advertising price, along with circulation, to be the strongest negative predictor of advertising space in daily newspapers.33 Here it is assumed that advertising price will reflect the desireability of the suburban weekly to advertisers and therefore result in more demand for advertising space. Therefore it is expected that in the static time period model: Hypothesis 25: The price of advertising space has a positive effect on the amount of advertising space in a weekly newspaper that serves primarily only one suburb. 84 In the 19703, the amount of space daily newspapers devoted to advertising increased about half as fast as the price of advertising space.34 This seems to indicate that advertisers demanded an increasing amount of space despite the rise in cost. This relationship should be indicated by a positive correlation over time. Assuming suburban weeklies have followed the same trend, one would expect that in the change over time model: Hypothesis 26: Over time, the price of advertising space has a positive effect on the amount of advertising space in a weekly newspaper that serves primarily only one suburb. Circulation When advertisers buy space in a newspaper, they are actually buying exposure for their product messages to the readers of the newspaper. As such, the number of peOple who receive the newspaper is of paramount importance to the advertisers. Rosse, in fact, found that circulation was the strongest positive predictor of advertising space.35 The same should be the case for any of the media, therefore, in the static time period model it is expected that: Hypothesis 27: Circulation has a positive effect on the advertising space of the weekly newspaper that serves primarily only one suburb. 85 The literature indicates that advertising space in daily newspapers has increased rapidly while circulation has increased more slowly.36 Which seems to indicate that daily newspaper advertising space has become increasingly. valuable to advertisers. One would therefore expect an increasingly positive relationship between advertising space and circulation. Assuming advertisers in suburban weeklies have followed this trend, it can be expected that in the change over time model: Hypothesis 28: Over time, circulation of the suburban weekly newspaper has a positive effect on the advertising space in a weekly newspaper that serves primarily only one suburb. Community demographics Retail sales Retail sales in a community are included in Rosse's model as a way of measuring the potential for advertising revenue in a community. The logic is that a certain fraction of retail sales will be employed in advertising. The higher the retail sales in a community, the higher should be the potential for advertising sales and the demand for advertising space in the newspapers which serve the community. Research has supported the link between the two variables and has shown that retail sales do have a relatively strong, positive relationship with advertising space in daily newspapers.37 Assuming the relationship is 86 similar in suburban weeklies, one would expect that in the static time period model: Hypothesis 29: The retail sales in a suburb have a positive effect on the advertising space of the weekly newspaper that serves primarily only one suburb. Retail sales in the United States did increase during the 19703.38 This was true even when inflation was controlled for. In fact, retail sales is the only independent variable Rosse employed in his advertising demand model which kept pace with advertising space in the 19705. This relationship should be indicated by a positive correlation over time. Assuming that suburban weeklies followed the trend, one would expect in the change over time model that: Hypothesis 30: Over time, retail sales in a suburb have a positive effect on the advertising space in the weekly newspaper that serves primarily only one suburb. In addition to Rosse's retail sales variable, three other demographics will be added to the advertising demand model. Age, education and income will be included to take into account the attractiveness of suburban residents to advertisers. As noted in the introduction, suburban newspapers were not able to attract much national advertising until the papers could prove that their 87 audiences were composed of readers with demographic characteristics desireable to advertisers.39 Consequently, the existence of certain age, education and income characteristics should be expected to affect demand for advertising space. Age, education and income Age, education and income are closely related in American society. Generally, as people grow older they acquire more education and their income increases as a result. With the age variable, however, there is an upper limit known as retirement, after which income is drastically reduced. But, barring a very large proportion of retired persons in a large number of the suburbs selected for this study, age should be expected to have a positive relationship with the space sought by advertisers in the suburban weekly. Therefore, in the static time period model: Hypothesis 31: The age of residents in a suburb has a positive effect on the advertising space in the weekly newspaper that serves primarily only one suburb. Median age rose approximately seven percent between 1970 and 1980,‘10 a rate much slower than the 48 percent increase of advertising space in daily newspapers.41 Therefore, the correlation should be increasingly positive 88 over time. Assuming advertisers in suburban weeklies have followed this trend, it can be expected that in the change over time model: Hypothesis 32: Over time, age of residents in a suburb has a positive effect on the advertising space in the weekly newspaper that serves primarily only one suburb. The generally high correlation between education and income should result in a positive correlation between education and demand for advertising space. The higher the educational level of residents in a suburb the higher should be their incomes and the more desireable they should be to advertisers. Therefore, in the static time period model: Hypothesis 33: The educational level of residents in a suburb has a positive effect on the advertising space in the weekly newspaper that serves primarily only one suburb. Between 1970 and 1980 the median number of years of education in the United States increased only two , percent,42 much less than did the amount of advertising space in metropolitan dailies.43 This should mean the correlation between education and advertising space became increasingly positive in that decade. Assuming similar education and advertising trends occurred in the suburbs, it can be expected that: 89 Hypothesis 34: Over time, education of residents in a suburb has a positive effect on the advertising space in the weekly newspaper that serves primarily only one suburb. If age and education have positive correlations with demand for advertising space in a newspaper, then one would expect a similar correlation with income. In fact, one would expect income to be the audience characteristic most important to advertisers since it represents potential sales. Therefore, in the static time period model: Hypothesis 35: The income of residents in a suburb has a positive effect on the advertising space in the weekly newspaper that serves primarily only one suburb. When 1980 per capita income is adjusted to account for changes in the cost of living since 1970, actual income rose 9.6 percent.44 The income increase was only 20 percent of the increase in advertising space in metropolitan dailies for the same period.45 Therefore, the correlation between income and advertising space should be increasingly positive. Assuming similar income and advertising trends have occurred in the suburbs, it is expected that: Hypothesis 36: Over time, the income of residents in a suburb has a positive effect on the advertising space in the weekly newspaper that serves primarily only one suburb. 90 Competition Rosse found that competition from all media in a community had a significant, negative effect on advertising space in the local daily newspaper.46 This should not be a surprising result since to a certain extent the various media in a community can act as alternative advertising vehicles and therefore can be expected to compete for advertising revenues. Assuming similar competition occurs down to the level of the suburban weekly, it can be expected in the static time period model that: Hypothesis 37: Competition from other media which serve a suburb has a negative effect on the advertising space in the weekly newspaper that serves primarily only one suburb. In the earlier discussion of the relationship between circulation and competition it was noted that competition should be expected to increase over time as more media crowd into a community. The same should also be expected to occur in the relationship between advertising space and competition. This relationship should be indicated by a negative correlation over time. Therefore, since competition should become more important as a predictor of advertising space over time, in the change over time model it is expected that: 91 Hypothesis 38: Over time, competition from other media which serve a suburb has a negative effect on the advertising space in the weekly newspaper that serves primarily only one suburb. A Model pf Suburban Newspaper Existence The second major part of this study will be an analysis of the variables which contribute to the existence of the suburban weekly newspaper, which serves primarily only one suburb, and the increasing or decreasing importance of the variables over time. In most respects, the model will be very similar to the demand model for circulation. The reason the two models will be similar is that circulation is, in a sense, a measure of the degree of existence of a newspaper. However, as Rosse pointed out, newspapers cannot be thought of only as a product with appeal to readers. Also to be considered are the advertisers who seek space in newspapers. Therefore, in constructing an appropriate reduced form model of newspaper existence it is necessary to combine variables from both models. New variables also will be introduced. The result is the following model for predicting existence of a newspaper in a given community. Determinants of the Existence of a Weekly Newspaper in a Suburb The existence or nonexistence of a newspaper (dependent variable) depends on (independent variables): 92 Community demographics Population Number of households in the market Age of residents Education of residents Income of residents Retail sales Community attachment Owned homes Voting Extent of media competition Size of suburb relative to central city Hypotheses Although the total circulation of suburban weekly newspapers in the United States increased between 1970 and 1980, their number decreased by 3.6 percent.47 The hypotheses are posed with this trend in mind. Note that the model of suburban weekly existence is in actuality a combined model of demand for circulation and advertising space. Aside from eliminating inappropriate independent variables, the models differ mainly only in the dependent variable employed. Therefore, to avoid redundancies and potentially severe statistical problems, 93 the existence model will only be examined for the two years of observation and not over time. Communityldemographics Population Newspapers, particularly weekly newspapers, depend on the local population for readers. As a result, it would seem logical that the larger the population in a community, the greater the likelihood that a locally—oriented newspaper will exist to serve the population. Therefore, in the static time period model: Hypothesis 39: The population in a suburb has a positive effect on the existence of the weekly newspaper that serves primarily only one suburb. Number pf households The household is employed here as the unit of newspaper consumption. Similar to the relationship between population and newspaper existence, but perhaps more accurate, the number of households in a community should indicate the number of potential newspaper consumers. It should then follow that the larger the number of potential newspaper consumers in a community, the better the chances that a locally-oriented newspaper will exist to serve the consumers. Therefore, in the static time period model, it is expected that: 94 Hypothesis 40: The number of households in a suburb will have a positive effect on the existence of the weekly newspaper that serves primarily only one suburb. Age Since age has been found to be a relatively consistent predictor of circulation at a given point in time, it should also be a good predictor of newspaper existence. In general, the older the residents in a community the greater should be the likelihood that a locally-oriented newspaper exists to serve the community.48 Therefore, in the static time period model, it is expected that: Hypothesis 41: Age of residents in a suburb has a positive effect on the existence of the weekly newspaper that serves primarily only one suburb. Education Research results indicate a consistently strong, positive relationship between education and circulation.49 This should translate into a strong relationship between education and newspaper existence. Therefore, in the static time period model, it is expected that: Hypothesis 42: The number of years of education of residents in a suburb has a positive effect on the existence of the weekly newspaper that serves primarily only one suburb. 95 Income In the daily newspaper field, income has had a consistently positive relationship with circulation, or degree of newspaper existence, when examined at any given point in time.50 Assuming the same trend has occurred in the suburbs, in the static time period model, it is expected that: Hypothesis 43: The level of income of residents in a suburb has a positive effect on the existence of the weekly newspaper that serves primarily only one suburb. Retail sales The variable retail sales was obtained from the advertising demand model to represent the amount of advertising which a suburb might be expected to produce. This then translates into the potential advertising support for a local newspaper, and may be a key factor in determining whether a newspaper can exist in a community. In fact, statistics indicate a strong, positive relationship between retail sales and daily newspaper circulation, or degree of newspaper existence.51 Assuming the same relationship holds in the suburbs, in the static time period model, it is expected that: 96 Hypothesis 44: The retail sales in a suburb have a positive effect on the existence of the weekly newspaper that serves primarily only one suburb. Communipylattachment Home ownership Home ownership is included as a measurement of the desire for local news. The rationale is that home ownership represents an attachment or commitment to the community. It then follows that the more attached or committed residents are to the community, the more they will demand information about the community and the more likely a local new3paper will emerge to serve the demand. Thus, it should logically follow that the larger the number of residents in a community who own their homes, the greater the likelihood that a locally-oriented newspaper will exist. Therefore, in the static time period model, it is expected that: Hypothesis 45: Home ownership by residents in a suburb has a positive effect on the existence of the weekly newspaper that serves primarily only one suburb. Voting patterns Voting is included as a variable to measure the attachment or involvement of residents in a community. The rationale is that the greater the extent to which residents 97 are attached or involved in the community the more likely they are to vote.52 It follows that the more likely residents are to vote, the more they will demand news about their community and the more likely a locally-oriented newspaper will emerge to meet the demand. If such is the case, the larger the number of residents who vote, the greater the likelihood a newspaper will exist in the community. Therefore, in the static time period model, it is expected that: Hypothesis 46: Voting by residents of a suburb has a positive effect on the existence of the weekly newspaper that serves primarily only one suburb. Competition Competition is employed as a measurement of how many media are contesting for the potential consumers and advertisers in a community; It seems logical that the more media there are competing to serve a community the less likely that an additional medium can emerge within the community; Therefore, in the static time period model, it is expected that: Hypothesis 47: Competition from other media which serve a suburb has a negative effect on the existence of the weekly newspaper that serves primarily only one suburb. 98 gigs pf suburb relative pg central city A more indirect form of competition for the suburban weekly is the extent to which the suburb is dominated by the sheer population mass of the central city. One would expect that the larger the population of the central city relative to a suburbfis population the less likely there would be a weekly newspaper in the suburb. The size of the central city population can be thought of as translating into employment, shopping and entertainment opportunities. These opportunities, in turn, translate into more interest in news from the central city and consequently less interest in news from the suburb. In other words, the opportunities of the central city can cause suburban residents to orient more toward the central city than to the suburbs. If this happens, one would expect the probabilities of a weekly existing in a given suburb to be relatively low. One would also expect the influence of the central city to be related to the relative size of the suburb. For example, it seems logical to assume that a central city of 500,000 population would offer more competition for the establishment of a weekly newspaper in a suburb of 5,000 population than would a central city of 50,000. Therefore, in the static time period model: 99 Hypothesis 48: The population size of a suburb relative to the central city has a positive effect on the existence of the weekly newspaper that serves primarily only one suburb. Operationalizations Circulation Depending on the analysis model being addressed, circulation will serve as either a dependent or independent variable. It will serve as a dependent variable in the circulation demand model. In all models, however, measurement will be the same, as described below. Suburban weekly newspapers differ from the metropolitan daily newspapers, more deeply addressed in the 'research literature, in that many of the suburban papers circulate free of subscription price, either partially or wholly. At one time, free circulation was considered irrelevant by advertisers since it seemed to indicate a newspaper product so inferior that it had to be given away. Times having changed, advertisers now seem to be willing to invest in any vehicle which can reach the desired audience. Rosse's models of demand for newspapers recognize the dual role played by the newspaper.53 While residents of a community are willing to pay to receive a newspaper which serves their community, advertisers are also willing to pay for the opportunity to reach the community's consumers, whether or not those consumers pay for the newspaper. 100 Considering that both free and paid circulation are important to the suburban weekly, circulation will be operationalized as the total of free and paid circulation. Circulation will be determined by entries in the 1971 and 1981 Editor A Publisher International Yearbook, which list the previous years' audited circulation for each weekly newspaper in the United States. The measurement will be the same for the static time period and change over time models. Advertisinglspace Advertising space will also serve as a dependent and independent variable. It will be the dependent variable in the analysis of advertising demand and as an independent variable in the analysis of circulation demand. In both models, advertising space will be measured in the same way, as indicated below. Advertising space will be determined by physical measurement of the advertising space in each newspaper. In order to make the measurements comparable among the variety of formats employed by the suburban weeklies, the advertising space will be measured in square inches. The information on the format of each newspaper, which is necessary to calculate the square inches of advertising, will be obtained from the Ayer Directory pf Publications. Advertising space will be measured as the mean of 101 advertising square inches in the four weekly issues of each newspaper published in March of 1970 and 1980. March was chosen as a month in which there was likely to be the least seasonal affect on advertising content, there being no major holidays. Advertising space will be included identically for the static time period and change over time models. Existence The presence or absence of a weekly newspaper in a given suburb will be the dependent variable for the suburban weekly existence model. Existence or nonexistence of a weekly in a suburb will be determined by entries in Editor A Publisher International Yearbook. The binary variable will be coded as '1" for the existence of a weekly, and “0" for nonexistence. Suburban weekly newspaper existence will be measured identically for the static time period and change over time models. Subscription price Subscription price will serve as an independent variable in the circulation demand model. Data on subscription price will be obtained from the Ayer Directory pf Publications. However, as will be the case with the independent variables of advertising price, income and retail sales discussed below, subscription price is subject to change over time as the result of inflation and other 102 economic factors. As such, it is necessary to control for the economic climate. To accomplish control, this study will employ the method of comparing economic change over time with the Consumer Price Index (CPI), as suggested by Bogart.54 It is equally rational to either raise the 1970 data to 1980 equivalents or to lower 1980 figures to the 1970 level. It was arbitrarily decided to select the latter. Since the CPI rose 112 percent between the two years, the formula to adjust 1980 figures to the level of 1970 is X + X(-.539) =- x1, where X equals 1980 data, X1 equals the 1980 data adjusted to 1970 levels, and -.539 is the conversion factor representing the 112 percent increase in the CPI between 1970 and 1980.55 The free circulation aspect of suburban weeklies also requires an adjustment of subscription price. Since in the daily newspaper field it is generally considered that subscription price only covers the cost of newspaper delivery, it can be assumed that people who pay for their subscriptions to a paper are actually paying for delivery to those who do not pay for the paper. Therefore, in the. suburban weekly industry, the actual subscription price per subscriber is not that listed in the Ayer Directory pf Publications, but rather the subscription price multiplied by the percentage of paid subscriptions. Once adjusted, the same measurements will be employed for both the static time period and change over time models. 103 Advertising price Advertising price will serve as an independent variable in the advertising demand model. It will be operationalized as the price of advertising as listed in Editor A Publisher International Yearbook. However, since in 1970 Editor A Publisher International Yearbook listed advertising per line, rather than as rate per column inch as was the case in 1980, it will be necessary to adjust advertising price between the two years. Again, the format specifications listed in the Ayer Directory 2E Publications will be employed to make the necessary adjustments. The cost of advertising will also be adjusted to be consistent with changes in the CPI. Once adjusted, the same measurements will be employed for both the static time period and change over time models. News and features space News and features space will be employed as an independent variable in the circulation demand analysis model. The same method of measurement and adjustment described above for the variable of advertising space will be employed for news and features space. Measurement will be the same for both the static time period and change over time models. Population Population will be employed as an independent variable 104 in the models for circulation demand, advertising demand and newspaper existence. It will be operationalized, for both the static time period and change over time models, as the data reported in the 1970 and 1980 0:5. Census pg Population and Housing reports. Number A; households The number of households in a suburb will be employed as an independent variable in the circulation demand and newspaper existence analysis models. Measures of the variable will be obtained from the 1970 and 1980 Q£A_ Census 2A Population and Housing reports. Measurement will be the same for both the static time period and change over time models. E33 Age will be employed as an independent variable in the circulation demand, advertising demand and newspaper existence models. It would be ideal to operationalize the variable by dividing the population of each suburb into the number of people by age group, as has been the practice in the studies of metropolitan daily newspaper audiences. Unfortunately, while it is relatively easy to obtain age group data for metropolitan areas, it is difficult to obtain the same type of information for as small a political unit as a suburb. Consequently, the study will rely on median age as a relative measurement of the 105 variable between suburbs. Data on median age are available in the ELS. Census 9; Population and Housing. The same measurement for age will be employed for both the static time period and change over time models. Education Education will be employed as an independent variable in the circulation demand, advertising demand and newspaper existence models. It will be operationalized as the mean number of years of education in each suburb. Data on education are available in the nus. Census pg Population and Housing. Measurement of education will be the same for both the static time period and change over time models. Income Income will serve as an independent variable in the circulation demand, advertising demand and newspaper existence analysis models. Since the household has apparently been established as the appropriate unit for measuring potential newspaper readership, for consistency income will be operationalized as mean income per household. As was the case with earlier economic independent variables, income per household will be adjusted for changes in the the CPI over time to produce "real" income. Data for measuring the variable are available in the URS. Census 9; Population and Housing. 106 Income will be measured in the same manner for both the static time period and change over time models. Retail sales Retail sales will be employed as an independent variable in the circulation demand, advertising demand and newspaper existence models. To be consistent with the measurement of other variables, retail sales will be operationalized as total retail sales in the community. Measurement of the variable will also be adjusted according to changes in the CPI over time to control for economic change. Data for retail sales are available from the volumes compiled for each state in the Statistical Abstracts series. Once adjusted, the measurement of retail sales will be the same for both the static time period and change over time models. Home ownership Home ownership will serve as an independent variable in the circulation demand and newspaper existence models. Since the analyses will be controlled by including the number of households in the community, home ownership will be measured by the percentage of owned homes. Measuring home ownership by percentage should also provide a degree of control for the increase in the number of households in the suburbs. Data on the number of homes owned in a suburb are available in the 0:8. Census 2E Population and Housing. 107 Home ownership will be divided by the total number of homes in the suburb. The variable will be measured the same for both the static time period and change over time models. Voting patterns Voting will be employed as an independent variable in the circulation and newspaper existence models. The variable will be operationalized as the percentage of eligible voters in a community who voted in the most recent local election. Employing the percentage of potential voters should provide a good indication of the increasing or decreasing importance of voting as a predicting variable irrespective of changes in population. Obtaining voting records of suburban dwellers again points out the problem dealing with small political units. While data on voting behavior in metropolitan areas are easily obtained, those for suburbs are not. Therefore, it will be necessary to collect the data from each state by contacting the office of the state commissioner of elections, or a comparable source 0 Competition Competition will be employed as an independent variable in the circulation demand, advertising space demand and newspaper existence models. In his study of competition in the daily newspaper industry, Rosse employed 108 an index of competition he developed by adding the number of various media which serve a given community. Recognizing the nonlinear character of media competition, the method also involved a logarithmic transformation of the index to make the variable compatible with the statistical method he employed.56 However, Rosse's competition index has a weakness in that it assumes all media in an area exert identical competitive forces on a newspaper. A more appropriate index is suggested by the results of a study which, in part, sought to determine the media sources for local news in four suburban Minneapolis areas.57 In the study, 444 residents of the suburbs were asked which medium provided them with most of their local news. Mean responses over the four areas showed that 34.25 percent of those surveyed obtained most of their local news from the Minneapolis daily newspaper, 29.00 percent from television, 17.50 percent from radio, and 10.75 percent from the suburban weekly. Employing a two-step process, these results can be converted into an index of the relative competitive strengths of the individual media serving the suburbs. The first step involves setting the value of the suburban weekly equal to one. With one as the basis of the index, values can be computed for each of the other media by employing the formula: 0.1075/1 = other medium/X. For example, the index value for the radio medium is 0.1075/1 = 0.1750/X, resulting in X = 1.628. The 109 resulting index of 1.628 for radio represents the entire radio medium and must further be divided among the individual units within the medium to determine the index for each radio station serving the area. Since there were 23 radio stations serving the area when the study was conducted, the index for each radio station is 1.628/23 a 0.07. The other resulting indices are: zoned metropolitan daily I 3.19, and television a 0.67. Without question developing an index from this study does present some problems. The most serious problem would appear to be the contradiction of the study‘s results with some of the content in the introduction of this dissertation. Evidence presented in the introduction indicates that metropolitan daily newspapers have not done very well in trying to compete with local weeklies in the suburbs, which is contrary to the findings in the Minneapolis study. Unfortunately the study does not contain sufficient detail of the methodology to determine how serious this problem might be. However, the point may be moot since it is the relative intermedia competitive strength which is of greatest interest in operationalizing the competition variable and in this respect the index appears to serve the purpose. A second problem concerns the generalizability of results from the study area to other, unstudied areas. It would certainly be preferable to have similar data from a 110 wide variety of community types in various geographic ' areas. Fortunately, in the Minneapolis study the problem was somewhat ameliorated by purposely choosing suburban areas to reflect a cross section of community types and distances from the central city. This approach undoubtedly makes the results more useful for employment in the competition index of this study. Another problem of the index is that it assumes all individuals within a medium exert identical competitive pressures on the suburban weekly. While this is troublesome, it is an improvement over Rosse's method of considering all media identical in exerting competitive pressures. Despite the problems cited, the index is appealing because it takes into consideration direct intermedia competition in the suburbs. It also includes all the major media which might be expected to compete with suburban papers except other suburban papers, which are considered below. Competition from zoned metropolitan dailies, television and radio will therefore be determined by counting the number of individual competitors within each medium, multiplying by the appropriate index value and adding the totals. The competitive nature of the metropolitan daily newspaper can be determined by examining the listings in the 1971 and 1981 Editor A Publisher International Yearbook 111 which indicate if the new3paper zones for suburban areas. Competition from radio and television stations will similarly be obtained from broadcast coverage listings in the 1971 and 1981 Broadcast Yearbook. Competition from suburban newspapers will be considered as a variable separately from the other media. It will be determined somewhat subjectively by examining circulation entries for newspapers in surrounding suburbs, as listed in the Editor A Publisher International Yearbook, and determining if it is likely that other suburban newspapers have a significant impact in the suburb. The variable will be entered as the total number of suburban papers outside the suburb which appear to circulate inside the suburb. Competition will be measured the same for both the static time period and change over time models. Size A; suburb relative pg central cipy The size of the suburb relative to that of the central city will be employed as an independent variable in the newspaper existence model. It will be operationalized as the population of the suburb divided by the population of the central city with data from the 1970 and 1980 Q£A_ Census 2E Population and Housing reports. 112 Metropolitan newspaper price Metropolitan newspaper subscription price will be employed as an independent variable in the circulation demand model. In the case of only one metropolitan daily circulating in a suburb, the subscription price will be measured as the weekly price of that newspaper. In the case of more than one metropolitan daily circulating in a suburb, subscription price will be calculated by multiplying the percentage of each paper's share of total circulation by its subscription price and adding the respective prices. Metropolitan daily newspaper subscription price and share of circulation will be obtained from Editor A Publisher International Yearbook. Sampling The design of this study is such that it requires samples of different populations for each of the two major parts of the study; One sample is required for the two demand analysis models, another for the newspaper existence model. Demand model sampAA The demand model analyses necessitate that the sample of suburbs be drawn from those suburbs which had suburban weekly newspapers which served primarily a single suburb in both 1970 and 1980. The weekly newspaper listings in Editor A Publisher International Yearbook indicate that 113 there are 378 suburbs that meet the requirements for inclusion in the population. .A table of random numbers will be employed to select 160 suburbs for the study. Employing the finite population correction (fpc) to take into account the relatively small population, the chosen sample size will give a sampling error of i 4.5 percent with a 95 percent confidence level.58 The chosen sample size is considered necessary to ensure that potential subject mortality will not allow the sampling error to go higher then 1.5.0 percent, a level generally considered appropriate for selecting an adequate sample. Newspaper existence model samples The major concern in addressing the differences between suburbs which support and do not support weekly newspapers is to adequately represent the two types of communities. Of the 3,406 communities which qualify as suburbs by the definition employed in this study, only 473, or 13.9 percent, had weekly newspapers in 1980. This means that to obtain only 100 suburbs which had weekly newspapers in 1980, it would be necessary to draw a random sample of 1,390. Consequently, it was decided that it would be more efficient to draw separate samples from the suburbs which did and did not have weekly newspapers in 1980 and to combine the samples. The goal is to select samples that will limit sampling 114 error to i.5.0 percent at a 95 percent confidence level. In order to not exceed the desired sampling error, 200 of the suburbs with weekly newspapers in 1980 will be drawn, along with 300 suburbs which did not have weekly newspapers in 1980: Employing the fpc, the sampling procedure results in a sampling error of 1.4.0 percent for suburbs with weeklies in 1980, and a sampling error of i.5.0 percent for suburbs without weekly newspapers in 1980. Examination of the trends in suburban weekly newspaper birth and death reveals that, between 1970 and 1980, 20 percent of the suburbs which had weeklies in 1980 did not have weeklies in 1970, and that 10 percent of the suburbs which did not have weeklies in 1980 did have weeklies in 1970.59 Drawing samples as indicated above should therefore result in approximately 380 suburbs, including some which supported weeklies in both years, which will give a sampling error of not more than 1.5.0 percent at the 95 percent confidence level. Data Analysis The data to measure the variables for each of the analysis models will be recorded on floppy computer disk via an Osborne 1 microprocessor. The data will be transported via modem to the Iowa State University WYLBUR main-frame computer and treated according to computer 115 programs in the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences X-edition.6o Correlations The first analysis will address the suspected correlations between some of the independent variables within each of the analysis models. Since correlation coefficients indicate the magnitude and direction of the relationship between two variables, they should, for example, indicate a high, positive correlation between education and income. By identifying the high correlations among independent variables within the models, it may be possible to eliminate some of the variables from the final analysis if, for example, one variable can reliably represent others. The correlation coefficients will also be employed as the first step in analyzing the relationships between the dependent and independent variables. Correlation coefficients will be computed by employing the Pearson product-moment coefficient. Results of the correlation analyses will be presented in table form for each model. Multiple regression analysis With the insight gained from observing the correlations among variables within each model, the second step in the study will be to submit the variables in the circulation and advertising demand models to 116 multiple regression analysis. Multiple regression is a method of simultaneously analyzing the separate and collective effects of more than one independent variable on the variability of a dependent variable. Consequently, regression analysis is useful in a study such as this because, given specific measurements of the independent variables, it can predict the resulting measurement of the dependent variable. In other words, the results of multiple regression, in the form of standardized coefficients for each independent variable, represent the relative contribution of each independent variable to the dependent variable. Therefore, the standardized coefficient for each independent variable represents the estimated importance of the variable in the population from which the sample was drawn. To take into consideration the expected curvilinear characteristics of the continuous variables in the demand models, the variables will be subjected to log transformations prior to calculation of the regression equations. The results of the multiple regression analyses will be reported for 1970 and 1980 as individual points of observation, and also for the percentage change in the variables between 1970 and 1980. The multiple regression analysis of change in the independent variables in the decade of the 19705 will therefore present an illustration of the increasing or decreasing ability of an independent 117 variable to predict the dependent variable in each of the two models. Discriminant analysis Discriminant analysis is a procedure which is used to statistically distinguish between two or more groups. The procedure calls for the assignment of a grouping variable, similar to a dependent variable in multiple regression, which designates the distinct groups to be examined. It also calls for a collection of discriminating variables, similar to independent variables in multiple regression, which measure characteristics on which the groups are expected to differ. The result is a discriminant function, a linear combination of the discriminating variables which also is similar to multiple regression equation. These attributes make discriminant analysis appropriate for application to the newspaper existence model which considers two groups, suburbs with weekly newspapers and suburbs without weekly newspapers, and a number of independent variables. To distinguish the two groups in the grouping variable, suburbs in which weekly newspapers exist will be coded as ”l" and suburbs in which weeklies do not exist will be coded as '0". The results of the analysis therefore will indicate which discriminatory variables are significant in predicting existence of a weekly newspaper 118 in a given suburb. The discriminating variables will be entered in a stepwise procedure employing Rao's V, which selects variables in the order in which they improve discrimination between the groups. The procedure will continue until either all variables have been selected or the remaining unselected variables do not improve discrimination. At each step, variables already selected will be tested to determine if their partial multivariate F ratios meet the minimum criterion for retention in the model. The minimum F ratio for a variable to be retained will be 1.0. The canonical correlation, the ability of the discriminant function to separate the groups, will be used to determine the discriminating ability of the function. Wilks' Lambda and the transformed lambda X2 will be used to determine the discriminating power of the variables retained in the function. ENDNOTES 1.For a complete definition of an SMSA see: SRDS Newspaper Rates and Data, 65:1 (March 15, 1983), pp. 124- 125. 2SRDS Weekly Newspaper and Shopping Guide Rates and Data, 65:1 (March 15, 1983), p. 3. The same definition is employed by Editor A Publisher books. 3James N. Rosse and James Dertouzos, ”The Evolution of One Newspaper Cities,“ Proceedings A; the Symposium pp Media Concentration, vol. II (Washington, ILC.: U;S. Government Printing Office). Dec. 14 and 15, 1978, pp. 449- 450. 4Ibid., p. 453. 5James N. Rosse, "Estimating Cost Function Parameters Without Using Cost Data: Illustrated Methodology," Econometrica, 38:2 (March 1970): p. 261. 6Rosse and Dertouzos, ”The Evolution of One Newspaper Cities," p. 453. 71bid., p. 453. 8Leo Bogart, Press and Public: Who Reads What, When, WhereL and Why AA American Newspapers (Hillsdale, NJL: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, 1981) p. 41. 9Raymond B. Nixon and Robert L. Jones, "The Content of Non-Competing Versus Competing Newspapersq' Journalism Quarterly, 33:299-314 (1956). 119 120 10Bogart, Press and Public, p. 34 11Nixon and Jones, "The Content of Non-Competing Versus Competing Newspapers,“ p. 305. 12Bogart, Press and Public, p. 34. l3Ben H. Bagdikian, The Information Machines: Their Impact pp Men and the Media (New York: Harper & Row, 1971), p. 54. l4§ggsus 9; Population and Housing, V01. I (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office). 15Ayer Directory pg Publications (Bala Cynwyd, Penn.: Ayer Press). 16Leo Bogart, "The Future of the Metropolitan Daily," Journal pg Communication, 25:31 (1975). 17Ibid., p. 31. 18Robert L. Stevenson, ”The Frequency of Newspaper Readership," ANPA News Research Report #7, Oct. 21, 1977, p. 6. 19Compare Bruce H. Westley and Werner J. Severin, "A Profile of the Daily Newspaper Non-Reader," Journalism Quarterly, 41:46 (1964), and Jeanne Penrose, David H. Weaver, Richard R, Cole and Donald Lewis Shaw, "The Newspaper Nonreader 10 Years Later: A Partial Replication of Westley-Severin,” Journalism Quarterly, 51:632 (1974). 20Stevenson, ”The Frequency of Newspaper Readership," p. 6. 21Compare Westley and Severin, ”A Profile of the Daily Newspaper Non-Reader," p. 46, and Penrose, et al., ”The Newspaper Nonreader 10 Years Later," p. 632. 121 zzstevensonr "The Frequency of Newspaper Readership, p. 6. 23William H. Turpin, ”Newspaper Circulation Growth and Rise in Personal Income," Journalism Quarterly, 51:524 (1974). 24Alex 8. Edelstein and Otto N. Larsen, “The Weekly Press' Contribution to a Sense of Urban Community,” Journalism Quarterly, 37:490-491, 493 (1960). 25Gerald S. Stone, "Community Commitment: A Predictive Theory of Daily NewSpaper Circulation," Journalism Quarterly, 54:510-511 (1977). 26Keith R, Stamm and Lisa Fortini-Campbell, "Community Ties and Newspaper Use," ANPA News Research Report #33, Oct. 30, 1981, p. 4. 27Bogart, Press and Public, pp. 174-175. 28James N. Rosse and James Dertouzos, "Economic Issues in Mass Communication Industries," Proceedings pp Ape Symposium pp Media Concentration, Vol. I (Washington, DJL: 1L8. Government Printing Office), Dec. 14 and 15, 1978, pp.148-155. 29Bogart, Press and Public, p. 41; and Ayer Directopy pp Publications. 3oRosse and Dertouzos, ”The Evolution of One Newspaper Cities," p. 453. 3lIbid., p. 453. 321bid., p. 453. 33Ibid., p. 453. 122 34Bogart, Press and Public, pp. 34, 41. 35Rosse and Dertouzos, "The Evolution of One Newspaper Cities," p. 453. 36Bogart, Press and Public, p. 34. 37Ibid., p. 41. 38§gg§gs pp Population and Housing. 39John Consoli, "Suburban Publishers Urged to Prove Usefulness," Editor A Publisher, Sept. 24, 1977, p. 12. 40Statistical Abstract pp the United States (Washington, DAL» ILS. Government Printing Office). 41Bogart, Press and Public, p. 34. 42Statistical Abstract. 43Bogart, Press and Public, p. 34. 44Statistical Abstract. 45Bogart, Press and Public, p. 34. 46Rosse and Dertouzos, "The Evolution of One Newspaper Cities,“ p. 453. 47§pippp A Publisher International Yearbook. 48Judee K. Burgoon and Michael Burgoon, “Predictors of Newspaper Readership," Journalism Quarterly, 57:596 (1980). 123 49Stevenson, "The Frequency of Newspaper Readership," pp. 2, 6. soIbid. Slggpsgs pp Population and Housing 52Stamm and Fortini-Campbell, ”Community Ties and Newspaper Use,” p. 4. 53Rosse and Dertouzos, "The Evolution of One Newspaper Cities,” pp. 449-450. 54Bogart, Press and Public, p. 41. 55Statistical Abstract. 56Rosse, ”Estimating Cost Function Parameters Without Using Cost Data," p. 261. 57Clarice N. Olien, George A. Donohue and Phillip J. Tichenor, "Metropolitan Dominance and Media Use," ANPA News Research Report #36, Sept. 24, 1982, pp. 3-6. 58Claus A. Moser and G. Kalton, Survey Methods ip Social Investigation, 2nd. ed. (New York: Basic Books, Inc., 1972), p. 67. 59§giggg A Publisher International Yearbook. 60SPSSE User's Guide, pp. 601-645: 663-669. CHAPTER IV RESULTS The statistical results reported in the tables in this chapter will provide the information necessary to test the hypotheses proposed in Chapter III. For consistency, this chapter will follow the same format as Chapter III and address, in order, circulation demand, advertising space demand and newspaper existence. A Demand Model for Circulation Accepting the convention that a simple correlation of 0.50 or greater indicates that variables are closely related in some way and therefore are collinear, the correlation matrices of demand for circulation shown in Tables 3 and 4 indicate collinearity among three pairs and one trio of independent variables. 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NHhHo. mam—$3 . 93E mam 882mm BE «.32 Edam coma m8 gm ZOHEm EEHQ mm; NH Manse Em 168 _TABLE 13 CANONICAL DISCRIMINANT FUNCTIONS FOR 1980 EXISTENCE PERCENT OF CANONICAL WILKS' CHI- VARIANCE CORRELATION LAMBDA S UARED pp SIG 100.0 .2890909 .9164265 17.935 5 .0030 TABLE 14 CANONICAL DISCRIMINANT FUNCTION COEFFICIENTS FOR 1980 EXISTENCE STANDARDIZED UNSTANDARDIZED VARIABLE COEFFICIENTS COEFFICIENTS INC -.44810 -.00015 SLS .54413 .00028 CMP .25792 .05503 PVT .87236 13.44568 DOM .43504 3.53763 (constant) -ll.25684 169 TABLE 15 CANONICAL DISCRIMINANT FUNCTIONS FOR 1970 EXISTENCE PERCENT OF CANONICAL WILKS' CHI- VARIANCE CORRELATION LAMBDA S UARED 22 SIG 100.0 .4399258 .8064653 45.492 7 .0000 TABLE 16 CANONICAL DISCRIMINANT FUNCTION COEFFICIENTS FOR 1970 EXISTENCE STANDARDIZED UNSTANDARDIZED VARIABLE COEFFICIENTS COEFFICIENTS AGE .21617 .03880 EDU .25548 .26578 INC -.57250 -.00014 SLS .59933 .00029 SCP .35782 .59985 CMP .23664 .06497 PVT .50339 7.78307 (constant) -10.46632 170 in the discriminant analysis procedure, as presented in Tables 11 and 12, pOpulation was not found to be sufficiently significant to be included in the model of suburban weekly newspaper existence and consequently does not appear in the remaining tables. Therefore, the results do not support the hypothesis that stated: Hypothesis 39: The population in a suburb has a positive effect on the existence of the weekly newspaper that serves primarily only one suburb. Number pp households Tables 9 and 10 indicate significant, negative correlations between the number of households in the suburbs (NHH) and the existence of suburban weekly newspapers (SBX) in both 1970 (-.122) and 1980 (-.187). However, when the effects of other independent variables were controlled in discriminant analysis, as presented in Tables 11 and 12, the number of households was not sufficiently significant to be included in the resulting equations. Therefore, the results do not support the hypothesis that stated: Hypothesis 40: The number of households in a suburb will have a positive effect on the existence of the weekly newspaper that serves primarily only one suburb. 171 Age Tables 9 and 10 indicate that the median age of suburban residents (AGE) had an insignificant, negative correlation with the existence of weekly suburban newspapers (SBX) in 1970 (-.060) and an insignificant, positive correlation in 1980 (.034). When the effects of other independent variables were controlled by discriminant analysis, age was significant in predicting suburban weekly existence in 1970, as indicated in Tables 12 and 16. Age was not a sufficiently significant variable in predicting suburban weekly existence in 1980 to be included in the final analysis. Therefore, the results do not consistently support the hypothesis that stated: Hypothesis 41: Age of residents in a suburb has a positive effect on the existence of the weekly newspaper that serves primarily only one suburb. Education Tables 9 and 10 indicate that the mean number of years of education of suburban residents (EDU) had an insignificant, positive correlation with the existence of suburban weekly newspapers (SBX) in both 1970 (.035) and 1980 (.027). Tables 12 and 16 indicate that education had a significant, positive effect on suburban weekly existence in 1970, but the exclusion of education from Tables 11 and 14 shows that education was not significant in predicting 172 existence in 1980. Therefore, the results do not consistently support the hypothesis that stated: Hypothesis 42: The number of years of education of residents in a suburb has a positive effect on the existence of the weekly newspaper that serves primarily only one suburb. Income Tables 9 and 10 indicate that the mean income of suburban households (INC) had an insignificant, poSitive correlation with the existence of suburban weekly newspapers (SBX) in 1970 (.030) and 1980 (.101). Tables 11 and 12 show that income was significant at the .01 level of confidence in predicting suburban weekly existence in both 1970 and 1980. Tables 14 and 16 further indicate that income had a strong negative effect on suburban weekly existence in both 1970 and 1980. Therefore, the results do not support the hypothesis that stated: Hypothesis 43: The level of income of residents in a suburb has a positive effect on the existence of the weekly newspaper that serves primarily only one suburb. Retail sales Tables 9 and 10 indicate that retail sales in the suburbs (SLS) had a significant, negative correlation with suburban newspaper existence (SBX) in both 1970 (-.268) and 1980 (-.l92). Furthermore, Tables 11 and 12 indicate that 173 retail sales were sufficiently significant to be retained in the analysis procedure. However, when the interference of other independent variables was controlled by the discriminant analysis proCedure, retail sales had a significant, positive effect on suburban weekly existence in both 1970 and 1980, as shown in Tables 14 and 16. Therefore, the results do support the hypothesis that stated: Hypothesis 44: The retail sales in a suburb have a positive effect on the existence of the weekly newspaper that serves primarily only one suburb. Community attachment Appp’ownership Tables 9 and 10 indicate that the percentage of homes owned by suburban residents (OHH) had a significant, negative correlation with suburban weekly existence (SBX) in both 1970 (-.l96) and 1980 (-4183). However, further analysis through the discriminant procedure failed to find home ownership sufficiently significant to include in the final model. Therefore, the results do not support the hypothesis that stated: Hypothesis 45: Home ownership by residents in a suburb has a positive effect on the existence of the weekly newspaper that serves primarily only one suburb. 174 Votingrpatterns Tables 9 and 10 indicate that the percentage of eligible suburban voters who actually voted in the local election most recent to the sampling year (PVT) had a significant, negative correlation with the existence of weekly suburban newspapers (SBX) in both 1970 (-.324) and 1980 L5271). Tables 11 and 12 confirm that voting was statistically significant in predicting suburban weekly existence, but Tables 14 and 16 indicate that the effect was positive. Therefore, the results do support the hypothesis that stated: Hypothesis 46: Voting by residents of a suburb has a positive effect on the existence of the weekly newspaper that serves primarily only one suburb. Competition Inter and intramedia competition that might affect the ability of a weekly newspaper to exist (SBX) in any given suburb was determined by analyzing the existence of other newspapers in neighboring suburbs (SCP) and other media in the pertaining metropolitan area (CMP). Tables 9 and 10 indicate a significant, negative correlation between suburban newspaper competition and suburban newspaper existence in 1970 (-.269) and 1980 (-»l65). Tables 11 and 12 show that suburban competition was a significant predictor of suburban weekly existence in 1970 but not 175 1980. Table 16 further shows that suburban competition was a positive predictor of suburban weekly existence in 1970. Tables 9 and 10 indicate that competition from media other than neighboring suburban newspapers had a significant, negative correlation with suburban weekly existence in 1970 (-.l76) and an insignificant, negative correlation in 1980 (-.094). Tables 11 and 12 show that intermedia competition was a significant predictor of suburban weekly existence in both 1970 and 1980. However, Tables 14 and 16 indicate that intermedia competition had a positive effect on the existence of suburban weeklies. Therefore, the results do not support the hypothesis that stated: Hypothesis 47: Competition from other media that serve a suburb has a negative effect on the existence of the weekly newspaper that serves primarily only one suburb. Size pp suburb relative pp central city Tables 9 and 10 indicate that the population of the suburb relative to that of the central city (DOM) had an insignificant, negative correlation to suburban weekly existence (SBX) in 1970 (-.089) and a significant, negative correlation in 1980 Ln144). Tables 11 and 12 show that when other variables were controlled, suburb size relative to central city size was significant in predicting suburban weekly existence in 1980 but not 1970. Table 14 further 176 shows that the effect on existence by the relative size of the suburb in 1980 was positive. Therefore, the available evidence does not consistently support the hypothesis that stated: Hypothesis 48: The population size of a suburb relative to the central city has a positive effect on the existence of the weekly newspaper that serves primarily only one suburb. Accuracy pp the suburban weekly newspaper existence model Tables 13 and 15 indicate that the discriminant analysis procedure was successful at greater than the .01 level of confidence in discriminating between suburbs in which weekly newspapers exist and suburbs in which no such newspapers exist. Representativeness pp the Suburb Samples A major degree of the value of the results of this study depends on the extent to which they can be applied to the total population of United States suburbs. It was therefore necessary to determine how representative the samples were of the population from which they were drawn. Tables 17 and 18 present a comparison of the community demographic means of the samples with the national means for suburbs in 1970 and 1980.1 Inspection of the tables indicates that there was no significant difference among 177 the three sets of statistics and that the samples did accurately represent the population. 178 TABLE 17 COMPARISON OF 1980 UNITED STATES SUBURBAN DEMOGRAPHIC MEANS WITH DEMAND AND EXISTENCE SAMPLES DEMAND EXISTENCE UNITED STATES SAMPLE SAMPLE POPULATION 34,863.31 35,633.947 33,716.913 NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS 12,611.24 13,231.547 12,130.127 OWNED HOMES 7,265.14 7,782.169 7,208.199 AGE 32.63 32.947 32.640 EDUCATION 12.96 12.932 12.975 INCOME 21,098.87 21,646.135 21,165.073 RETAIL SALES 15,821.80 15,672.573 16,163.460 Source for United States data: "Special Report on U.S. Suburban Communities,” Bureau of Management and Budget, U.S. Government Printing Office, no. 246 (1981). 179 TABLE 18 COMPARISON OF 1970 UNITED STATES SUBURBAN DEMOGRAPHIC MEANS WITH DEMAND AND EXISTENCE SAMPLES DEMAND EXISTENCE UNITED STATES SAMPLE SAMPLE POPULATION 31,483.29 31.845.087 31,664.083 NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS 9,942.35 10,275.189 9,893.382 OWNED HOMES 5,586.43 5,751.378 5,420.948 AGE 29.86 30.696 29.976 EDUCATION 12.32 12.339 12.397 INCOME 12,416.74 12,541.270 12,398.857 RETAIL SALES 8,522.51 8,740.173 8,577.714 Source for United States data: "Special Report on U.S. Suburban Communities," Bureau of Management and Budget, U.S. Government Printing Office, no. 187 (1971). ENDNOTES 1"Special Report on U.S. Suburban Communities,” Bureau of Management and Budget, U.S. Government Printing Office, nos. 187, 246 (1971, 1981). 180 CHAPTER V SUMMARY, CONCLUSIONS AND FURTHER RESEARCH Summary This study had two purposes. One was to determine if variables that had been useful in predicting demand for, and existence of, daily newspapers, were useful when applied to suburban weeklies and, to determine if heretofore untested variables might be useful in predicting 1 J suburban weekly demand and existence. The second purpose was to determine any changes in the independent variables predicting demand for suburban weekly circulation and advertising between 1970 and 1980.. In other words, the second purpose was to address the evolutionary aspect of the suburban weekly. The summary of the results will be presented below in the same order as addressed in the preceding chapters. Demand for suburban weekly circulation Only two of the independent variables were significant in predicting suburban weekly newspaper circulation in either 1970 or 1980. As presented in Tables S-A through 5- L in Chapter IV, the results show that both the column inches of advertising in suburban newspapers (ASP) and the F“ _‘ 181 182 column inches of news EEE_EEEEE£E§ in suburban weeklies (NSP) had consistently significant, positive effects on suburban weekly circulation in both 1970 and 1980. Independent variables that did not have significant effects on suburban weekly circulation in either 1970 or 1980 were: subscription price of suburban weeklies suburban population number of suburban households number of homes owned in the suburbs economic/education status of suburban residents median age of suburban residents competition from suburban newspapers competition from media other than suburban newspapers percentage of eligible voters in suburbs who voted in the most recent local election subscription price of metropolitan dailies Although only two of the independent variables were significant, as a group they combined to predict a maximum of 81.579 percent of circulation in 1970 (Table S-E) and 82.959 percent of circulation in 1980 (Table S-G). The combined effects of the independent variables are significant at the 0.01 level of confidence in all the equations. Change pp demand for suburban weekly circulation Only advertising space (ASP) and news and features 183 space (NSP) were significant in predicting the change in circulation of suburban weekly newspapers between 1970 and 1980. Both of the variables were positive and significant in all equations. The most highly significant result for advertising space was .67017 (Table S-J), and for news and features space the most significant result was .85711 (Table S-I), both significant at the 0.01 level of confidence. Independent variables that did not have a significant effect on the change in suburban weekly circulation were: subscription price of suburban weeklies suburban population number of suburban households number of homes owned in the suburbs median age of suburban residents economic/education status of suburban residents column inches of news and features in suburban weeklies competition from suburban newspapers competition from media other than suburban newspapers percentage of eligible voters in suburbs who voted in most recent local election subscription price of metropolitan dailies As a group, the variables combined to predict a maximum of 74.050 percent of the change in suburban weekly circulation between 1970 and 1980 (Table S-K). The results 184 of all equations in Tables S-A through 5-L were significant at the 0.01 level of confidence. Demand for suburban weekly advertising space Only two independent variables were significant in predicting demand for advertising space in suburban weeklies as measured by column inches. Table 8 in Chapter IV shows that cippulationof the Suburban weeklies (CIR) had a significant, positive effect on advertising demand in both 1970 (.67879) and 1980 (.87861). It also shows that the repailpsales in the suburbs (SLS) had a significant, negative effect in 1980 but an insignificant effect in 1970. Independent variables that did not significantly affect the demand by advertisers for suburban weekly advertising space in either 1970 or 1980 were: column inch price of advertising in suburban weeklies median age of suburban residents economic/education status of suburban residents competition from media other than suburban newspapers competition from suburban newspapers As a group, the variables combined to predict 53.024 percent of demand for advertising space in 1970 and 79.686 percent in 1980. Both results are significant at the 0.01 level of confidence. 185 Change pp demand for suburban weekly advertising space Table 8 in Chapter IV shows that only the change in suburban weekly circulation (CIR) was significant in predicting the change in demand for advertising space between 1970 and 1980. Circulation showed a significant, positive effect on the change in demand for advertising space (.69548). The independent variables not significantly affecting the change in advertising demand were: column inch price of advertising in suburban weeklies retail sales in the suburbs median age of suburban residents economic/education status of suburban residents competition from media other than suburban newspapers competition from suburban newspapers As a group, the variables combined to predict 51.416 percent of the change in demand for advertising space in suburban weeklies between 1970 and 1980, a result that is significant at the 0.01 level of confidence. Existence pp suburban weeklies Four independent variables were consistently significant at the 0.01 level of confidence in predicting the existence of a weekly newspaper in a given suburb. Tables, 11, 12, 14 and 16 in Chapter IV show the following results: 186 retail sales in the suburb (SLS) -- positive mean suburban income (INC) -- negative percentage of eligible voters in suburbs who voted in most recent local election (PVT) -- positive competition from media other than suburban newspapers (CMP) -- positive Four other independent variables were significant in predicting the existence of suburban weeklies in only one of the two years examined. They were: median age of suburban residents (AGE) -- positive in 1970 mean number of years of formal education of suburban residents (EDU) -- positive in 1970 competition from suburban newspapers (SCP) -- positive in 1970 population dominance of the central city over the suburbs (DOM) -- positive in 1980 Independent variables that did not have significant effects on suburban weekly newspaper existence in either 1970 or 1980 were: suburban population number of suburban households number of homes owned in the suburbs The results presented in Tables 13 and 15 in Chapter IV show that the independent variables as a group were able to discriminate significantly between suburbs with and without weekly newspapers at the 0.01 level of confidence. 187 Conclusions Looking at the overall results of this study, three .general conclusions seem apparent. First, there is little evidence of an evolutionary process occurring in the suburban weekly newspaper industry between 1970 and 1980. Very few of the relationships between the dependent and independent variables changed significantly between the two years observed, indicating a stable rather than changing industry. The lack of evidence of evolution in the suburban weekly industry may not be too surprising considering the years studied. Many of the suburbs arose during the early post-WWII era, which means that they would be more than 30 years old by the time of the first observation point in 1970. It seems reasonable that in that length of time the suburbs could have lost the pioneering characteristics that could have translated into measurable levels of community attachment and commitment, and ultimately into suburban weekly newspaper demand and existence. Community demographics might similarly'tend to even out over time compared with other communities and therefore make these characteristics less useful as predictors. In order to determine if there is some sort of a maturity factor at work in the suburbs, it might be useful to employ one or both of two approaches in further research. One 188 approach would be to observe the suburbs in the years more immediately following the end of WWII. For example, it might be fruitful to search for evidence of an evolutionary process between 1950 and 1960, or between 1960 and 1970. Another possibility would be to include an independent variable to represent the relative maturity of a suburb. For example, including the year of incorporation of a suburb might be useful in determining the influence of community age on demand for, and existence of, suburban weeklies. The conclusion evident from the findings is that few of the independent variables that had been found to be significant predictors in research on metropolitan daily newspapers were individually significant in predicting the suburban weekly newspaper dependent variables, especially demand for circulation and advertising. This may mean that suburban weeklies are dependent on different variables, or different degrees of the same variables, than are metropolitan dailies. It is also possible that the differences in significance are a function of the differences between the way in which this study was designed compared with past studies. Referring back to the literature review of earlier newspaper research, it should be noted that most of the studies included only a few independent variables, often only two or three. The weakness of the approach is that it does not allow for 189 controlling the possible influence of other variables. Consequently, there may appear to be a strong influence exerted by a given variable when in fact if the effects of other variables were removed the influence would be insignificant. Finally, despite the individual insignificance of most of the independent variables, the consistently significant combined effects of the variables in all the models indicate that it was appropriate in the study to include variables to determine simultaneously the effects of several dimensions of newspaper demand and existence. The overall statistical significance of the models also confirms the complexity of the systems of variables that determine newspaper demand and existence. Demand for suburban weekly circulation The results of the series of equations presented in Tables S-A through S-L in Chapter IV offer scant evidence of significant evolution in the suburban weekly newspaper industry between 1970 and 1980. For example, the equations that best predicted suburban weekly circulation in 1970 (Table S-E) and in 1980 (Table S-G) differed only by one variable. Competition from media other than suburban weeklies (CMP) in Table S-E was replaced by the subscription price of metropolitan dailies (MPR) in Table 5-G. In other words, no one set of independent variables 190 was consistently superior in predicting circulation. It should be remembered, however, that the predictive abilities of all the equations were significant at the 0.01 level of confidence so that all combinations of the independent variables were successful at predicting circulation to a large extent. Variables controlled py the newspaper Included in the model of demand for circulation as variables controlled by the newspaper were subscription price, amount of space devoted to news and features, and amount of space devoted to advertising. The subscription price of the suburban weekly was expected to have a negative effect on circulation since as the cost of nearly any product goes up demand for it should be expected to go down. Since the effect of subscription price was statistically insignificant, it appears that price was not a very important variable in predicting circulation. Put another way, the price of the suburban weekly newspaper was not a significant variable in the decision by suburban residents of whether or not to subscribe. This may be a reflection of the generally lower weekly cost of the suburban weekly compared to the metropolitan daily and the consequent slight advantage this gives the suburban paper. Also, the suburban newspaper generally has the advantage of carrying news that cannot be found in other media, and the Suburban reader may therefore 191 be inclined to purchase the paper regardless of cost because there is no substitute for its content. This is unlike the metrOpolitan daily for which such media as local television can be substituted. The other two variables controlled by the newspaper as expected did have significant effects on circulation. The results show that the amountof space devoted to news and features, and the amount of space devoted to advertising were the most significant, positive predictors of suburban weekly circulation. The results were as expected and support the obvious, that news and advertising sell newspapers. That both content categories were highly significant also reinforces the important idea that the two should be considered together as inseparable parts of the total newspaper package. Community demographics Representing the community demographics of a suburb in the model of demand for circulation were suburban population, number of suburban households, and median age of suburban residents, and the combined variables of mean number of years of formal education of suburban residents and mean suburban income represented by the economic/education status variable. Drawing from the results of studies on metropolitan daily newspaper circulation, it was expected that all the community 192 demographic variables would have positive, significant effects on suburban weekly circulation. Contrary to expectations, the results in Tables S-A through 5-L show that none of the variables was significant. Part of the disparity between the results of this study and those of earlier research probably involves the difference in methodology. In most of the earlier studies, only a very few demographic variables were examined at a time. Therefore, this procedure did not control for the interference of other closely related variables. Consequently, it seems reasonable to surmise that the significant effects that the independent variables exhibited were probably stronger than they would have been if they had been considered together with other interrelated variables. Another possibility is that the insignificant results are demonstrating the uneven distribution of circulation in the suburbs that is resulting from wide variations in local conditions. If this is true, it may be more productive to consider the suburban environment more in the context of the total metropolitan environment. For example, instead of considering the economic/education status of a suburb in isolation, it may be more fruitful to look at it in the context of how much more or less economic/education status the suburb has compared with the surrounding areas. One major advantage of such an approach would be to take into 193 consideration the vast differences in income and education that may occur from one area of the country to another. Communitylattachment Community attachment by suburban residents was represented in the circulation demand model by the percentage of homes in the suburbs that were owned by those residing in the homes and the percentage of eligible suburban voters who voted in the most recent local election. It was expected that there would be a positive connection between community attachment, as demonstrated by making the commitment to live in a suburb for a time by buying a home, and the need for a suburban weekly to keep the homeowner informed of news in the suburb. However, no such connection was found in the results. The results concerning home ownership may be another indication of the need to put demographic characteristics of the suburb into the context of the metropolitan area. This seems reasonable since undoubtedly home buying versus renting habits vary between metropolitan areas. It might therefore be useful to develop a relative index of this and other community variables to take into account other differences between communities. It was expected that voting would have a consistently positive effect on circulation under the rationale that suburban residents who voted were exhibiting strong 194 attachment or commitment to the suburb. It was further assumed that this attachment or commitment indicated a need for local information that would translate into demand for a local newspaper. There are a number of possible explanations as to why the assumption was not supported by the results. It may be that voting behavior is too dependent on the specific circumstances surrounding an election to be employed as a measure of community attachment. For example, one would expect a higher percentage of the eligible voters to vote in a heavily contested, emotional election than in an election with little controversy. If this is the situation, it would indicate a problem of determining the best way to measure attachment, or commitment, through voting. As an alternative measurement method, it might be possible to control somewhat for the differences in interest from election to election by comparing voting in the suburbs to voting in the surrounding areas or perhaps the entire metropolitan area. It is also possible that the results of the voting variable are an indication of a maturing process that has taken place in the suburbs. It may be that the older and more established a community becomes the less involved the residents become. Lower involvement may then lead to voting patterns less linked with community attachment than with interest in a specific election, thereby rendering the 195 variable useless as an indicator of attachment. Quite different results may have been found if, for instance, voting and its effects on circulation had been determined for periods earlier in the lives of the suburbs, such as 1950 or 1960. Overall, however, for the time periods examined, and the method of measurement employed, it is evident that the percentage of eligible voters voting did not have a significant effect on the demand for circulation. It is possible that the insignificance of the variables selected to measure community attachment or commitment indicates that alternative variables should be examined. For example, the existence of high school and grade school age children in a household may be more important to newspaper circulation than are the above variables, since it may indicate a stronger sense of involvement in the community, through the schools, and a consequent greater desire for local news than might be the case with households without children. Other possible variables could be whether suburban residents work in the suburbs in which they live; whether residents were born in the suburbs; and whether residents participate in religious activities in their suburbs. One would expect all three of these variables to indicate involvement in, and attachment to, the suburbs, and that may result in larger circulation of suburban papers. One would expect also greater 196 involvement in and attachment to a community if a person both lives and works there, and that may result in a significant correlation with circulation. Competitiop Competition was represented in the circulation demand model by an index of media other than suburban newspapers serving a given suburb and by the number of other suburban newspapers that serve a given suburb. Neither of the competition variables exhibited significant effects on circulation in 1970, 1980 or over time. Undoubtedly the results can be attributed at least somewhat to measurement problems. Fornexample, merely counting the number of suburban papers that compete in a suburb does not take into account the actual local competitive environment. The competition index, although it does appear to show some promise in solving the problem of how to measure intermedia competition, needs further refinement. Another measurement problem concerning the competition variables may be one similar to those discussed earlier in regard to measuring variables in the context of the local metropolitan area. For example, the lack of significance of the competition variables may be a reflection of the variation in the quality of the suburban weeklies and the media that serve as alternative sources of information in 197 the community. The competition index begins to approach this problem, but as noted above needs refinement. Metropolitan newspaper price Assuming Rosse's umbrella hypothesis of newspaper competition is correct, that competition occurs mostly between newspapers of different size and frequency, subscription price is one of the ways to determine the effects of that competition.1 As the cost of the metropolitan daily goes up the lower priced suburban weekly should be more attractive to the suburban resident. It was therefore expected that the price metropolitan daily newspapers charged for their product would have a positive effect on the circulations of suburban weeklies. However, the results showed that the effect was not significant and therefore the variable was not very important in predicting demand for suburban weekly circulation. This is probably an indication that the price of the metropolitan daily does not have much effect unless it becomes unreasonably high. As an alternative measure, it might be useful to look at the disparity between the costs of the two papers to determine if it the differential cost rather than the actual cost that will affect circulation. Demand for suburban weekly advertisipg space Table 8 in Chapter IV shows some evidence of a change in the predictability of demand for suburban weekly 198 advertising space during the 19705. In 1970, the seven independent variables in the equation were able to predict 53.024 percent of advertising demand. In 1980, the predictability had risen to 79.686 percent. In View of the significant increase in predictability, it might be useful to look at the effects of the same independent variables earlier in the history of the suburban weekly to determine if this is a long term trend or just the effects of changes in a single decade. If it is a long term trend, it may be possible to predict how the variables will affect demand for advertising space in the future. Variables controlled py the newspaper Included in the model of demand for advertising space as variables controlled by the newspaper were the price per column inch of advertising space and circulation of the suburban weekly. It was expected that the price of advertising space would have a positive effect on demand for advertising space, under the assumption that both the newspapers and advertisers would recognize the value of the suburban residents as highly desirable readers. In other words, it was expected that the mere fact that a newspaper is in the suburbs would have a positive effect on the demand for advertising space regardless of advertising prices higher than would be justified by circulation alone. In reality, the price of advertising space probably 199 represents an indirect, weak measure of circulation. For example, the price of advertising space should be expected to increase as advertising space demand increases in response to increased circulation. The insignificance of advertising price in predicting advertising space demand may therefore be the result of the highly significant effects of the circulation independent variable on advertising space demand as discussed below. Given the interrelationship advertising space and advertising price, it is also possible that, contrary to the method employed in this study, it would be more appropriate to employ advertising price as the dependent variable and advertising space as the independent variable. The rationale is that demand for advertising space may have more of an effect on advertising price than vice versa. As expected, circulation had a strong, positive effect on demand for advertising space in 1970, 1980 and on the change in demand between 1970 and 1980. Circulation was in fact the single strongest predictor of advertising space. Considering the effects of both circulation and advertising price on the demand for advertising space, it therefore appears that advertisers were more affected by the number of suburban residents reached by the weeklies than in the cost of reaching those residents. This seems to be further evidence that advertisers continue to consider the cost per 200 thousand as the most important factor in selecting media outlets for their advertising. Communityrdempgraphics Representing the community demographics in the model of demand for advertising space were total retail sales in the suburbs and median age of suburban residents, and the combined variables of mean years of formal education of suburban residents, and mean suburban income represented as economic/education status of suburban residents. It was expected that, beyond the desire for mere circulation numbers, advertisers would be attracted most to suburban weeklies that circulated in suburbs exhibiting demographic characteristics that had proven important in metropolitan daily newspaper advertising sales, ime. higher sales and income, and older and more highly educated suburban residents. All of the results, however, are contrary to the expected effects of the demographics. Of the three independent variables representing community demographics, only suburban retail sales demonstrated a significant effect on demand for advertising space. Contrary to expectations, retail sales showed an significant, negative effect on advertising demand in 1980 and an insignificant effect in 1970. At least the short term trend appears to be that as suburban retail sales increased during the 19705, they had a detrimental effect 201 on demand for advertising in the suburban weekly. One possible explanation for these unexpected results may lie in the desires of media other than suburban weeklies to reach a potentially lucrative audience. Considering that as retail sales increase in a community, so should the desirability of advertisers to reach these potential customers. It follows that if there is an increase in potential advertising, there is likely to be a coincident increase in competition among the media to attract the advertising. Therefore, the negative effect of retail sales on demand for advertising space could be an indication that the other media have been competing successfully against the suburban weeklies that serve primarily only one suburb. This possibility will be explored further below in the discussion on the effects of competition on demand for advertising space. The variables of median age and economic/education status of suburban residents were insignificant in predicting demand for advertising space. One possible explanation for the unexpected results takes into consideration the possibility of a maturing process occurring in the suburbs over time as discussed earlier. In the case of age and economic/education status, it may be that over time the suburbs have undergone an evening out process that leads to less variation as the suburbs grow older. A look at the dispersion patterns of the two 202 variables provides some evidence to support the idea of an evening process. In 1970 the sample had a mean age of 30.696 and a standard deviation of 4.011. In 1980 the mean age was 32.947 with a standard deviation of 4.301. The results show that there was not very much variation in age in the suburbs and also shows that the mean age was increasing, another sign of maturing. In 1970 the income/education status variable had a mean of 7.673 and a standard deviation of 0.602; and in 1980 a mean of 7.728 and a standard deviation of 0.618. Again, the results indicate little variability among the suburbs on the variable. Competition Competition was represented in the advertising demand model by two variables, an index that measured the effects of all media serving the suburbs except other suburban newspapers, and competing suburban newspapers. It was expected that competition would prove a detriment to suburban weekly advertising, but the results showed that neither the intermedia competition nor the intramedia competition had significant effects on advertising demand. Apparently the negative effects of competition on advertising space, anticipated as a result of the discussion on the negative effects of retail sales, did not materialize. As discussed earlier, part of the problem may 203 be the result of measurement problems in operationalizing competition. Another possibility discussed in the introductory chapter, however, is that suburban weekly newspapers are largely unaffected by competition from other media. This may be evidence that suburban weeklies, because of their severely localized coverage, do not have a substitute medium serving the community. Suburban newspaper existence It must be noted that in this study the existence model was treated as a model of demand for the existence of suburban weeklies, to be consistent with the demand models for circulation and advertising space. In fact, the existence model could have been treated in other ways. For example, existence of suburban weeklies could have been treated as the result of technologies that help or hinder the ability of suburban weeklies to compete with other media. It also is important to remember the difference between the objective of the newspaper existence part of this study and the objective of the demand model part of the study discussed above. In the demand model part, the objective was to determine to what extent the independent variables contributed to predicting the demand for circulation and advertising space. In the existence part of the study, the objective was to determine which 204 independent variables were significant in separating, or discriminating between, suburbs in which weekly newspapers existed from suburbs in which weekly newspapers did not exist. Therefore, in a sense the demand model part of the study was predicting the essence of existence of suburban weeklies while the existence model looked at only whether or not a weekly existed. These differences are a key to understanding why, for many of the independent variables, the results of the two parts of the study are different. Community7demographics In the study, representing community demographics that might affect the existence of suburban weeklies were suburban population, number of suburban households, median age of suburban residents, mean number of years of formal education of suburban residents, mean suburban income and retail sales in the suburbs. Neither population nor number of households was significant in discriminating between suburbs with and without weeklies. This suggests that the populations and numbers of households were similarly distributed in suburbs with and without weeklies. Both age and education were significant in the discriminant analysis performed on the 1970 data, but neither was significant in 1980. These results indicate a change in the makeup of the suburbs occurred during the 19705. It appears that the suburbs became more similar on 205 these variables during this time, which suggests the existence of a process that levels the differences among suburbs over time and makes them more homogeneous. Contrary to the expectations, income was a consistently significant, negative discriminator between suburbs with and without weeklies. One possible explanation for the unexpected results lies in the attractiveness of wealthier communities to the media that compete with suburban weeklies. It seems likely that the higher the income in a suburb, the more it will attract alternative media that will seek to serve the advertising and information needs of the residents. However, if this were true one would expect the discriminant analyses to indicate a negative ability by competition to separate the suburbs with and without weeklies. The results below provide no support for this conclusion. An examination of the ability of the retail sales variable to discriminate between suburbs with and without weeklies provides additional insight into the situation that may be occurring with the income variable. The retail sales variable exhibited a significant, positive ability to discriminate between the two types of suburbs. But, since the variable was measured as total retail sales in the suburb, it may actually be indicating that weeklies are more likely to exist in larger suburbs, since one would expect total retail sales to be at least somewhat related 206 to the size of the suburb. In fact, total retail sales may be a better measure than population or number of households since it takes into consideration the economic dimensions of the community rather than just the physical dimensions. When the retail sales variable was divided by the number of households, to make the variable comparable to the income variable, it exhibited a significant, negative ability to discriminate between suburbs with and without weeklies. Consequently, it could be concluded that, contrary to expectations, the suburban weekly is more likely to be found in the suburbs with lower income and lower retail sales per household. Adding to what was noted above, this would indicate that those suburbs with higher incomes and higher retail sales would likely be discriminated in a negative direction by the competition variables. Since such was not the case, the implication is that the residents in the wealthier suburbs were not attending to any of the media to a significant extent. Community attachment The variables that represented the attachment residents have for their suburban community, or their involvement in the suburbs, in the weekly newspaper existence model were the percentage of suburban homes that were owned by the people who resided in them and the percentage of eligible voters in the suburbs who voted in 207 the most recent local election. Similar to the results in the model of demand for suburban weekly circulation, the percentage of owned homes was not significant in discriminating between suburbs with and without weeklies. This suggests that there was no significant difference in the percentage of owned homes in the two types of suburbs studied. These results are similar to those that occurred in the circulation demand model. Perhaps, similar to the circulation demand model, here too the equations would benefit from an alternative measurement of community attachment or commitment such as the number of households with school-age children. Dissimilar to the results in the circulation demand model, voting by suburban residents was a consistently. significant, positive discriminator between suburbs with and without weeklies. Apparently voting is useful in predicting if there is enough local interest in political news to support the existence of a weekly, but is not very useful in predicting the degree of the interest to the extent that it could be converted into circulation. Competition Competition faced by suburban weeklies was represented by the number of suburban newspapers originating outside the suburb that appeared to circulate within the suburb, and an index of competition including all other mass media 208 that appeared to be competing for the suburban residents' attention. Intramedia competition was a significant, positive discriminator in 1970 but was insignificant in 1 1980. The results indicate that competition from other suburban newspapers was a positive force on the existence of suburban weeklies in 1970 but was an insignificant force in 1980. One explanation is that suburban newspapers so thoroughly covered the suburbs by 1980 that intramedia competition was no longer useful in telling the difference between suburbs with and without their own weeklies. However, the results of intermedia competition discussed below do not support this explanation. An alternative explanation is simply that suburban weeklies were more or less randomly distributed among the suburbs with no particular regard to whether or not there were weeklies in adjoining suburbs. The results show that the index of intermedia E competition was a consistently significant, positive ‘ discriminator, indicating that competition from media other than suburban newspapers had a positive effect on the existence of suburban weeklies. The results could indicate an environment generally conducive to the existence of all media. The results may also be an indication that competition among media is not harmful but, on the contrary, a healthy situation that contributes to the higher quality and therefore the success of all the media 209 that are willing and able to meet certain standards of performance. Size pp suburb relative pp central city The inclusion of the population size of the suburb relative to that of its respective central city was intended to measure the effect of the size dominance of the central city on the existence of a weekly in a given suburb. Since dominance was measured as the population of the suburb divided by the central city population, a positive relationship between dominance and newspaper existence indicates that the larger a suburb relative to the central city the greater the chance that the suburb will contain a weekly. Dominance was a significant, positive discriminator in 1980 but was insignificant in 1970. This means that in 1980 the larger a suburb was, relative to the central city, the more likely a weekly existed in the suburb. That there was no similar significance in 1970 indicates a possible trend of the relative size of the suburb becoming an important factor in the survival of the suburban weekly. The results possibly are also a reflection of the population shift that occurred in the 19705. Between 1970 and 1980, suburban population increased 6.3 percent, while central city population decreased 9.4 percent. Perhaps the pressures exerted by the attractions of the larger central cities have a 210 detrimental effect on the health of the suburban weekly and that there is a minimum proportion of suburban population to central city population that is required to establish the suburb as a community unto itself, not overshadowed by the central city. Further Research In the early part of this paper, it was stated that this study was intended as the first step in what would be an extensive series of research projects aimed at acquiring if" a cleare r picture of the suburban newspaper field. Therefore, one of the main values of the study lies in the" ability of its results to point the way for further research. The results indicate that at least three areas """ need further investigation. Since these three areas have already been discussed in various other sections of the dissertation, this section will consist mainly of brief descriptions of each as a means of focusing on them. The first area that appears to need further attention ,d- .m.,__ J! studied. As noted earlier, the results showed very little evidence of an evolutionary process occurring between 1970 and 1980. In evaluating these results, it was noted that the problem may lie in not looking far enough into the past, where there may be greater potential for finding evidence of evolution. Consequently, it is suggested that 211 studies similar to this one be conducted employing data starting from as close to the establishment of the suburbs as possible. The major limiting factor in such an approach will likely be the availability of dependable data reaching back into the 19405 and 19505. Following the suburbs from their establishment to the present should reveal any evolutionary evidence that might exist. Anothep,area”that appears to warrant further research is that of/variable measurement{1 This was most apparent in the independent variablesthat served as proxies to measure community attachment and involvement. For example, the variable of percentage of eligible voters who voted in the most recent local election showed results more inconsistent than expected. While there is a great deal of logic behind using voting to measure community commitment, a way must be found to control for the wide variations in interest in local elections. As noted earlier, it may be necessary to control the variable by taking into account the specific conditions in each suburb and its surrounding metropolitan area in a cross section or case study approach. There appears to be merit in looking more deeply into some of the independent variables and their relationships with newspaper demand and existence. The best example of this is the peculiar relationship between retail sales and income. Recall that the two tended to act independently and in opposite directions, unlike what was expected. It 212 was suggested that perhaps the results indicated two different types of suburbs, one with high income and one with high retail sales. It would seem important to know if there are two types of suburbs because they may have significantly different effects on newspaper demand and existence. Finally, from a statistical analysis standpoint, it might be useful to adOpt Rosse's simultaneous equation models in studies of demand for advertising space and circulation. The simultaneous equation procedure is a method of estimating demand for circulation by including advertising space demand as an independent variable after its value has been estimated in another equation, and estimating advertising demand by including circulation demand as an independent variable after its value has been estimated in another equation.2 In addition to the directions suggested by the results of this study, it will also be important to investigate the other levels of newspapers that form the continuum between the suburban weekly and the metropolitan daily. Consequently, studies similar to this one are planned to determine if there are differences among the suburban newspapers published two or more times per week, suburban dailies and small metropolitan dailies. The ultimate goal, beyond the obvious historical implications, is to try to determine what the newspaper industry of the future will 213 look like, whether it will survive and thrive, by learning more about how it arrived at where it is today. ENDNOTES 1Bruce M. Owen, Economics and Freedom pp Expression (Cambridge, Mass.: Ballinger Publishing Co., 1975) pp. 50- 51. 2James N. Rosse, ”Estimating Cost Function Parameters Without Using Cost Data: Illustrated Methodology," Econometrica, 38:2, p. 261. 214 BIBLIOGRAPHY BIBLIOGRAPHY Arnold, Mark R. "New Suburb Majority: It's Changing Marketing Map.” Advertising Age, Nov. 17, 1975, pp. Ayer Directoty pp Publications. Bala Cynwyd, Penn: Ayer Press. Bagdikian, Ben H. The Information Machines: Their Impact pp Men and the Media. New York: Harper & Row, 1971. Bogart, Leo. Press and Public: Who Reads What, When, Where and Why in American Newspapers. Hillsdale, NIL: Lawrence EFIbaum Associates, 1981. 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