lllllllllllIIHIIHIIIIIIIIIIIIHIIHIInullluuunmnum 31293 01706 9919 This is to certify that the dissertation entitled MEXICAN TOWNS IN CALIFORNIA: A QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE EXAMINATION OF COMMUNITY ETHNIC TRANSFORMATION AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT presented by Elaine Allensworth has been accepted towards fulfillment ol’the requirements for Ph.D- degree in Sociology WJM I . . U Major protessor Date November 7, 1997 ' ' - 1 MSU M an Aliimmuw- Arriun/lt'quu/ ()p/mrtmmv Insulunnn O 1277 W“, . ‘—‘ \ LIBRARY Michlgan State UnIverslty PLACE IN RETURN Box to remove this checkout from your record. To AVOID FINES return on or before date due. DATE DUE DATE DUE DATE DUE 1193 cz/CIRCIDaleDue.p65-p.14 A QL'ASH MEXICAN TOWNS IN CALIFORNIA: A QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE EXAMINATION OF COMMUNITY ETHNIC TRANSFORMATION AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT By Elaine Marie Allensworth A DISSERTATION Submitted to Michigan State University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY Department of Sociology 1997 A QL‘A‘CII The 1* numenca becoming [h percentages compared to are POSCd in changing an 3’ WI is co COncelnralloi R688; Dependency disseIIaIIOn a NCO‘Clflsssic Theo’l‘isl inu Study QOme f the County B and 1990, am cWetter] [hIc ABSTRACT MEXICAN TOWNS IN CALIFORNIA: A QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE EXAMINATION OF COMMUNITY ETHNIC TRANSFORMATION AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT By Elaine Marie Allensworth The ethnic composition of rural California is rapidly changing. Latinos have lived as numerical minorities within barrios of communities for decades, but they are now becoming the majority population in many places. At the same time, places with higher percentages of Latino residents are becoming increasingly economically disadvantaged compared to places with lower percentages of Latinos. Therefore, the following questions are posed in this dissertation: 1) Why is the ethnic composition of California communities Changing, and what are the factors leading to the increasing concentration of Latinos? and 2) Why is community socio-economic well-being so strongly related to Latino concentration, and what are the factors leading to unequal wealth and development? Research on Latino immigration to rural areas has generally taken either a Dependency Theory /World Systems perspective, or a rational-economic approach. In this dissertation an integrated theoretical model is developed based on hypotheses derived from Neo-Classsical economic theories (e. g., Social Capital, Human Capital, and Central Place Theories) interpreted within a Dependency Theory framework. Quantitative data for this study come from the 1980 and 1990 US. Census of Populationand Housing STF3 files, the County Business Patterns Data of the Standard Statistical Establishment List for 1980 and 1990, and the US. Census of Agriculture for 1982 and 1987. Qualitative data were collected through interviews, focus groups, and observation of communities. 1 ii of foreign- However. population Agricultun for explain Latinos etl better explz social and l and the gm numbers of alld Wage g I find that growth and loss of U.S.-born population is more important than growth of foreign—bom population for explaining the relative differences in ethnic transformation. However, foreign—born population growth influenced the growth patterns of U.S.-bom population by affecting economic and social conditions within and between communities. Agricultural restructuring, social networks, and housing availability were most important for explaining foreign-bom and U.S.—born Latino population growth. Among white non- Latinos, ethnic conflict, perceptions of community deterioration, and housing availability better explain migration decisions. Community economic development was affected by the social and human capital held by community residents, regional employment opportunities, and the growth of non-Latino and foreign-bom population. The effect of changing numbers of foreign-bom population on community development depended on regional job and wage growth. Policy and research implications are discussed. l a graduate e I a in the colc provided r Others in it [his Pf0iec M) Iain very [ afld know]: f0r all of he researth. I ”Search an: MW in $1 I we little and 335 that I met in Fina Comfort, frie ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I am sincerely grateful to the following peOple who have guided me through my graduate education, and supported me in the completion of this project. I am most grateful to my committee chairperson, Refugio Rochi’n, for involving me in the colonias project. He has motivated me to grow as a researcher-scholar. He has provided many opportunities for me to expand my work and to become involved with others in the field. I am very appreciative of his continual support and encouragement in this project, in my future work, and in my career. My committee members have been instrumental in my deveIOpment as a sociologist. I am very thankful to my academic advisor, Stan Kaplowitz, for the kindness, friendship, and knowledge he has shared with me over many years. I am grateful to Janet Bokemeier for all of her advice, and for the opportunities she provided for me to first get involved in research. I am thankful to Rita Gallin for challenging me to continually critique my research and for expanding my world view. And I thank Ruben Rumbaut for piquing my interest in studies of immigration, and encouraging my research on the topic. I would also like to thank the residents of the communities that I studied for their time and assistance in this project. I am grateful for the warmth and Openness of the people that I met in central California. Finally, I would like to thank my husband, Steven Meyers, for all of his guidance, comfort, friendship, and love. He is a constant source of support, inspiration, and joy, iv TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES .................................................................................. vii LIST OF FIGURES ................................................................................. ix CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION ................................................................. 1 Mexican Towns ................................................................................... 2 Research Issues and Questions of Study ....................................................... 4 Dissertation Plan and Approach ................................................................. 7 CHAPTER 2. LITERATURE REVIEW ........................................................ 11 Review of the Problem .......................................................................... 11 Changing Demographics in Rural California .............................................. 11 Ethnicity and Community Well-Being ...................................................... 14 Theoretical Overview ............................................................................ 16 Structural Layout of the Theoretical Overview ............................................ 20 World-Systems and Dependency Theories ................................................. 22 Agricultural and Industrial Restructuring ................................................... 23 Ethnic Subordination / Labor Market Segmentation ...................................... 32 Internal Core and Periphery .................................................................. 37 Cost of Living Effects ........................................................................ 40 Human Capital Theory ....................................................................... 41 Social Capital Theory ......................................................................... 42 Central Place Theory .......................................................................... 48 Demographic Effects .......................................................................... 50 Final Models ................................................................................... 5 2 CHAPTER 3. METHODS ........................................................................ 56 Quantitative Analysis ............................................................................ 5 6 Data ............................................................................................. 56 Variables ....................................................................................... 5 7 Qualitative Analysis .............................................................................. 64 Data Analysis .................................................................................. 66 Places of Study ................................................................................ 66 CHAPTE Ednnt' Foreigr Gron Gron Grow Commu S's-innit ClHPTEl Patterns Geogi ECOIIC 50cm} Politic Ethnic I Non-l l'.S.-I Foreig Ethnicity POpuk Ethnic Human Social CHAPTER Slimmm Ethnic NONI; COmml lntegm The Futur RlSlng ] Imilllcalic Policy [m] ECOnOn CHAPTER 4. QUANTITATIVE RESULTS ................................................. 74 Ethnic Transformation ......................................................................... 75 Foreign-Bom, Latino and Non-Latino Population Growth ............................... 76 Growth in Foreign-Bom Population ...................................................... 77 Growth in Latino Population ............................................................... 79 Growth in N on-Latino Population ......................................................... 80 Community Development ..................................................................... 82 Summary Model of Quantitative Results .................................................... 85 CHAPTER 5. QUALITATIVE RESULTS ................................................... 87 Patterns in Ethnicity and Economics ......................................................... 88 Geographic Patterns in the Ethnic and Economic Composition of Places ............ 88 Economic Patterns in Mexican Towns .................................................... 91 Social Patterns: Divisions Among Community Residents ............................. 93 Political Patterns ............................................................................. 99 Ethnic Transformation ........................................................................ 104 Non—Latino White Population Growth and Loss ....................................... 104 U.S.—Bom Latino Population Growth: Comparison to Anglos ...................... 11 l Foreign—Born Population Growth ........................................................ 117 Ethnicity and Economic Development ...................................................... 1 l9 POpulation Growth ......................................................................... 119 Ethnic Transformation ..................................................................... 121 Human Capital .............................................................................. 123 Social Capital ................................................................................ 126 CHAPTER 6. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS ..................................... 128 Summary onypotheses ........... 128 Ethnic Transformation ..................................................................... 128 Non-Latino, Latino, and Foreign-born Population Growth ........................... 129 Community Economic DeveIOpment ..................................................... 136 Integrated Model of Ethnic Transformation and Economic Development ............ 140 The Future of Rural Communities in California ........................................... 149 Rising Latino Power: Implications for the Economic Development of Colonias. .. 151 Implications for Other Regions .............................................................. 160 Policy Implications ............................................................................ 161 Economic Development in Mexican Towns ............................................. 162 Low-Income Housing Development ..................................................... 166 Special Programs ........................................................................... 167 Immigration Policies ....................................................................... 169 Policy Implications for Other Areas ...................................................... 170 Future Research ............................................................................... 172 LIST OF REFERENCES ....................................................................... 175 APPENDICES ..................................................................................... 187 Vi 11:27.7: . ‘l " "— "' : Cf 123k. \ able: Br- .__ J 1’, -1. .4 Table; H}- lablef Op: Table 6.. II Table” De; Tables, Des Table 9_ D Table In. Re Table 11~ Re! Table 12. Reg Table ]3_ Re Table 14' Re Table 15. Co: Table to. cop Table 17' Co: Table 18. Cu Table 19' D Table 20, Pied Table 2]. Fred LIST OF TABLES Table 1. Community Economic Variables by Percent Latino ........................................................ 15 Table 2. Bivariate Regression Equations: Community Economic Indicators by Ethnic Composition 16 Table 3. Hypotheses Predicting Ethnic Transformation... ............................................................. 54 Table 4. Hypothesized Predictors of Community Wealth and Development ....................................... 55 Table 5. Operational Definitions of Variables ............................................................................. 63 Table 6. Description of Cutler and Orosi ................................................................................... 70 Table 7. Description of Exeter ................................................................................................ 71 Table 8. Description of Orange Cove ....................................................................................... 72 Table 9. Description of Woodlake ............................................................................................ 73 Table 10. Regression Models of 1990 Ethnic Composition .................................. . ....................... 76 Table 11. Regression Models of Foreign Born Population Growth (1980-1990) ............................... 79 Table 12. Regression Models of Latino POpulation Growth (1980-1990) ........................................ 80 Table 13. Regression Models of NoneLatino Population Growth (1980-1990) .................................. 82 Table 14. Regression Models of Community Development (1980-1990) ......................................... 84 Table 15. Correlations Among Percentage Growth Variables ....................................................... 191 Table 16. Correlations Among 1980 and 1990 Community Ethnicity Variables .............................. 191 Table 1?. Correlations of Foreign-Born Population Growth With Community Ethnicity .................. 192 Table 18. Correlations Among County Agricultural and Employment Variables .............................. 193 Table 19. Descriptive Statistics ................. 194 Table 20. Prediction of Foreign-Born Population Controlling for Non-Latino, Non-Whites ............... 202 Table 21. Prediction of Latino Population Growth Controlling for Non-Latino Non-Whites .............. 203 vii Table 22. Table 33.1 Table 24.1 Table 35. Tablclo F Table 2', Table 28 P Table 29. in Table 30. P Table 22. Prediction of Non-Latino Population, Controlling for Non-Latino Non-Whites ................. 204 Table 23. Prediction of Ethnic Transformation Controlling for Non-Latino, Non-Whites ................... 204 Table 24. Prediction of Community Development Controlling for Non-Latino, Non-Whites .............. 205 Table 25. Prediction of Growth in Per Capita Income 206 Table 26. Prediction of Growth in Poverty 207 Table 27. Prediction of Growth in I' ,' J 208 Table 28. Prediction of Growth in Wealth 209 Table 29. Prediction of Growth in the Percentage of High School Graduates 210 211 Table 30. Prediction of the Growth in the Percentage of College Graduates viii Figure] I Figure 2 Figure 3. I TIgureq1 E EMS. H Figures, H Figure] H Fll’ure 8. H Flllure9, H: Flture 10, t Figure 11. t Figure 12. H Fltire 13. H Flgme I4, H Figure 15'“) Fltire 16, H; Fititre 17. ”I Figure 18, H3 rig”, 19. H) FigureZO‘ Hy Flgllre 2] LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1. Non-Latino and Overall Population Growth in 126 Rural Places (1980-1990) ..................... 13 Figure 2. Overview of Hypotheses ........................................................................................... 19 Figure 3. Hypothesis 1.1 ....................................................................................................... 26 Figure 4. Hypothesis 1.2 ....................................................................................................... 26 Figure 5. Hypothesis 2.1 ....................................................................................................... 29 Figure 6. Hypothesis 2.2 ....................................................................................................... 30 Figure 7. Hypothesis 1.3 ....................................................................................................... 31 Figure 8. Hypothesis 2.3 ....................................................................................................... 35 Figure 9. Hypothesis 2.4 ....................................................................................................... 36 Figure 10. Hypothesis 2.5 ..................................................................................................... 37 Figure 11. Hypothesis 2.6 ..................................................................................................... 39 Figure 12. Hypothesis 1.4 ..................................................................................................... 39 Figure 13. Hypothesis 1.5 ..................................................................................................... 41 Figure 14. Hypothesis 2.7 ..................................................................................................... 42 Figure 15. Hypothesis 1.6 ...................................................................................................... 44 Figure 16. Hypothesis 2.8 ..................................................................................................... 46 Figure 17. Hypothesis 1.7 ..................................................................................................... 48 Figure 18. Hypothesis 1.8 ..................................................................................................... 49 Figure 19. Hypothesis 2.9 ..................................................................................................... 50 Figure 20. Hypothesis 1.9 ..................................................................................................... 51 52 Figure 21. Hypothesis 2.10 .................................................................................................... ix ‘Ul’ Figure 33. Figure 23 P R I‘I. r-tuC s. .- F'T‘I'; a.L' \ ‘ . 7‘ . ‘\. htfnr’; u “‘ " u, . Figure 22. Model for Prediction of Changing Ethnic Composition ................................................ 53 Figure 23. Map of Communities ............................................................................................. 67 Figure 24. Empirical Model ................................................................................................... 86 Figure 25. Latino Education Levels by Percentage of Residents who are Foreign-Bom ...................... 112 Figure 26. Cyclical Model of Ethnic Transformation .................................................................. 136 Figure 27. Integrated Model of Latino Settlement ...................................................................... 144 Figure 28. Integrated Model of the Development of Internal Core-Periphery Relationships ................ 146 Figure 29. Integrated Model of Community Economic Development ............................................. 148 C continuin Most of t populauo and Cenu In “lines. 1 lune/rm almost Cor mlnorifles Places (R0 been allrib University lean Oneh Clustercd i, A1 I in mm] Con Latinos in c and educm Tllra] 1&1an l The 1ng u} CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION Califomia’s population, which increased by some 6 million peOple in the 19805, is continuing to grow by a net amount of about 600,000 per year, or 1644 every 24 hours. Most of this growth is in metropolitan areas, but there has been a large spill-over of population to rural communities. Many of the new residents are immigrants from Mexico and Central America (SCR 43 Task Force 1989; Rochi’n and Castillo 1995). In 1950, rural communities in California were largely pOpulated by non-Hispanic Whites.1 But beginning in the 19703, and accelerating during the 19805 and 19903, the White/Latino proportions changed in most rural places, so that some communities became almost completely composed of Latino residents. While Latinos have long been numerical minorities within barrios of communities, they are now becoming the majority in many places (Rochin and Lopez 1995). Most of the changing ethnicity Of rural California has been attributed to the increasing numbers of immigrant agricultural workers. The University of California Task Force on Latinos (SCR 43 Task Force 1989) noted that at least one-half million Latinos in rural areas were immigrant settlers and that most were clustered in some 100 communities near their jobs in agriculture. At the same time, socio-economic indicators reveal disturbing underclass conditions in rural communities with high proportions of Latino residents. As the proportion of Latinos in communities rises, so do poverty rates and unemployment, while median income and education levels decline (Castillo 1991; Allensworth and Rochi’n 1995). Furthermore, rural Latino enclaves often lack essential housing, and health and social services (SCR 43 l The terms “Hispanic” and “Latino” are used interchangeably in this dissertation. Ink Force 19 legal and mod TEN can: Emnmmm MMummi nunflmd November 19‘. nhkudfld surrounding it HER are occurring. UTMmLu Ammaut demographic 2 [0 truth in L among rural p 311d Central A residents of C 2 Task Force 1989). They are also often without local businesses that cover needs such as legal and medical services, pharmaceuticals, and recreational activities (Rochin and Lopez 1995). Californians have noted these changing conditions, including the impoverishment of communities in which Latinos are the majority population. They have reacted with fears that Mexican immigrants are “taking over” their communities and draining the resources of state and local governments. Such fears led to the passage of Proposition 187 in November 1995, which denied education and health benefits to unauthorized immigrants and their children. This, in turn, heightened conflicts within the state about issues surrounding the growing foreign-born population. This focus on immigration, however, obscures the impacts of other processes that are occurring, such as movement of the non-Latino population, the substantial growth in U.S.-born Latino population, and the growing economic polarization between people and places that is occurring throughout the country. It cannot be assumed that all of the demographic and economic changes that are occurring in rural California can be attributed to growth in Latino immigration. In fact, non-Latino population has shifted substantially among rural places over the last several decades. However, it is immigration from Mexico and Central America which has captured the attention of media, politicians, and established residents of California. Mexican Towns I understand that 30 - 40 years ago (that city) was a really nice town -- mostly Anglo, with nice homes. Then it got into trouble. They lost their police department. It’s not nice anymore. There are a lot of crimes. 1 always get a kick out of when I can first see Bear Mountain. I know (my City) is right below that. It ’s a beautiful place. The place described above is a small town located at the base of the mountains of King’s Canyon National Park, surrounded by orange and peach groves, in the heart 0f the San Joaquin on agriculun Asians. it's This is it In all ho. People a qfa'eati I They it The smells c radios. the n Spanish. Or other comm Muel Most of the l commUm-[y t reSernhles sn lhtn a Germ, Over llahsfonmm 3 San Joaquin Valley. The entire economy of the city, and of the surrounding area, depends on agriculture. Most of the population is Hispanic, but there are a number of Anglos and Asians. It’s a very pleasant, quiet small town. However, it has a reputation: This is the second poorest city in the State of California. In all honesty, I wouldn ’t live in here. It’s changed over the years. People ask my ‘why do you want to work out there -- in Murdersville?’ Lots of dead bodies are found here... ‘Aren ’t you afraid you 're going to be shot?’ They’ve got their own little mafia over in (that city). That’s a Mexican Town. It’s easy to transport yourself to Mexico walking around the city described above. The smells of tortillas and tamales as you pass local restaurants, the music blasting from car radios, the men with mustaches, pointed-toe boots and straw hats, the voices speaking in Spanish. Once you have visited it, it is not surprising to find that people call it, and many other communities in rural California, “Mexican towns.” Much about the city has a Mexican feel. Signs are in Spanish as well as English. Most of the population is of Mexican descent. However, while many aspects of the community may be reminiscent of Mexico, it does not resemble towns in Mexico. It resembles small communities throughout the United States, with a Mexican flavor rather than a German or Scandinavian or other such feel. Over the past 30 years, this town has gone through a dramatic ethnic transformation, from being mostly non—Hispanic white in the 19605 to being almost .L completely l throughout ( States. altho 1996; Gouve themselves. 1 understandin concentratior distress. Pla differentiate It is 1 simple result simultaneous industrial res States. It als economjc Ira OCC“Wing in I quality 0flifc msPOnatior between the" greater mobil as ‘lransnatic or regions in in tents of at 2\ Specific "Unit 4 completely Latino in 1990.2 Similar demographic shifts are occurring in small towns throughout California. They are also occurring in small towns throughout the United States, although to a lesser extent than in the Southwest (e. g., see Amato 1996; Benson 1996; Gouveia and Stull 1996). While these demographic trends may be interesting in themselves, they are accompanied by disturbing economic trends that call for immediate understanding. Places that are experiencing the most dramatic growth in Latino concentration also are experiencing dramatic growth in poverty and community economic distress. Places in rural California are becoming increasingly economically heterogeneous, differentiated by both ethnicity and economic status. It is tempting to view the demographic and economic changes that are occurring as a simple result of increasing immigration. However, such a perspective ignores other simultaneously occurring processes, such as non-Hispanic white migration patterns, industrial restructuring, and increasing economic polarization across all places in the United States. It also must be asked why such places have experienced dramatic ethnic and economic transformations, while neighboring rural places have not. Research Issues and Questions of Study This study attempts to put the trends in ethnic and economic transformation that are occurring in the places described above in the context of global trends that are affecting the quality of life in places throughout the United States. Advances in communication and transportation are increasing the interdependence among places, while blurring borders between them. The concept of “community” is increasingly difficult to define. There is a greater mobility and migration of people. More and more places seem to be aptly described as “transnational communities,” or places that are socially and economically tied to towns or regions in other countries.3 Immigration to the United States is at its highest point ever in terms of absolute numbers, and is increasingly coming from Latin America and Asia, 2 Specific numbers are not given to preserve the anonymity of the place. rather than t throughout t resuucturing of poverty or and the size lher tease study: areas." How affecting tho industrial res the factors le 0f places tier the eeonorm't Calif “all0nal lren. OfPOVCITy ar lS becOmmg lROChfn and on an CVeHn Task Force 1 3“dress these ll happened. . communities of co MM. The not (”list [0 ll. 3\ See PM (.19 5 rather than traditional European sending countries. Ethnic composition is changing throughout the country. Furthermore, we are going through a period of economic restructuring, resulting in greater economic polarization of both people and places. Pockets of poverty and of extreme wealth are emerging together, reducing regional homogeneity and the size of the middle class. Therefore, this project begins to answer the following questions using California as a case study: What processes are driving immigration and minority concentration in rural areas? How are places reacting to these changes, and how is the changing ethnicity affecting those places where Latinos are settling? In what ways are agricultural and industrial restructuring affecting the socio-economic well-being of rural places? What are the factors leading to unequal wealth and development? How are the economic conditions of places tied together, and what are the implications of these social and economic ties for the economic viability of particular places? California is the ideal place for study because it is in the forefront of many of these national trends. Immigration is at its highest in California (Rumbaut 1996), as are extremes of poverty and wealth (Reed, Glenn Haber and Mameesh 1996). The minority population is becoming the majority in many places, shifting the status relationships in these areas (Rochin and Lopez 1995). California leads the country in agricultural restructruing, relying on an ever-increasing supply of farm laborers and labor contractors (Palerm 1991; SCR 43 Task Force 1987). If rural places in other parts of the country are to deve10p policies to address these dynamics, they should understand what has happened in California and how it happened. Without attempting to understand how these processes have interacted in real communities, policies will continue to be reactionary, and often inappropriate. Of course, California also differs from other parts of the United States in many respects. There is a historical legacy of migration between California and Mexico that does not exist to the same degree in most other parts of the COUHU'Y- California was, at one time, h 3 See Portes (1996) for a description of communities that span borders. part of Meir given contrt industries in mama and Alror 19 differendy i differences 1 Therefore. tl study: it “ht is th the facto Ethnic tr: 3l Why is cc What are leading It The f PllIIIary latte “Mexican tor Compared to relative impel qUestjon ads: POPUlation_ l [3th effect 0 Latino Whites 6 part of Mexico. Environmentally, California is ideally suited for large-scale agriculture, given controlled irrigation. POpulation growth, and the success of many non-agricultural industries in California, have allowed landowners and others to obtain large amounts of capital in shorter periods of time, allowing for the purchase of large farms (e. g., Gilbert and Akor 1988). The trends under study will no doubt manifest themselves somewhat differently in other parts of the country. However, we cannot predict how or why these differences might occur, unless we understand what has and is happening in California. Therefore, the following specific questions are posed as the organizing framework for this study: 1) Why is the ethnic composition of rural California communities changing, and what are the factors leading to uneven changes? That is, what are the factors leading to uneven ethnic transformation? 2) Why is community socio-economic well-being so strongly associated with ethnicity, and what are the factors leading to unequal development? That is, what are the factors leading to uneven community economic development? The first question is raised to address the common belief that immigration is the primary factor involved in the ethnic transformation of places, including the deve10pment of “Mexican towns.” It is posed to clarify the impact of immigration on ethnic transformation, compared to shifts in non-Latino and U.S.—born Latino population. Beyond examining the relative impact of each of these groups on changing community ethnic composition, the question arises as to what factors are influencing growth and loss of each type of population. For example, do people move to places where jobs and wages are growing? Is the effect of employment variables more salient for foreign-born pOpulation? Are non- Latino whites moving away from places experiencing immigration because of fears and prejudice or ethnic conflict? Are immigrants moving to places that already have large immigrant 1 populations Many more general. eth impact of n: ethnic com; him Latino The economic w foreign-hon and loss of r 0f the lmpac Contettt of or such as reg“ development meOfCllml St The f Studi- Thefi ethnic tTitttsfc conditions it Second Part 0 theoreticaj fr; Classical Eco; theories, and. Situafim of m 7 immigrant populations, or are they spreading out into places with smaller foreign-born populations? How are migration patterns of U.S.-born Latinos influenced by immigration? Many more questions are raised in the theoretical section of this paper (Chapter 2). In general, ethnic transformation is examined in two stages by comparing: 1) the relative impact of non-Latino, U.S.—born Latino, and foreign-born pOpulation growth on changing ethnic composition, and 2) the factors that lead to growth and loss of non-Latino, U.S.- born Latino, and foreign-born population. The second question addresses the assumption that immigration is destroying the economic well-being of rural communities. It is posed to examine the impact of growing foreign-born population on community economic development in conjunction with growth and loss of non-Latino and U.S.-bom Latino population. It also calls for the examination of the impact of foreign-born population growth on economic development within the context of other factors that are known to influence community economic development, such as regional job and wage growth, agricultural restructuring, social and human capital deve10pment, and demographic changes. Specific hypotheses are developed in the theoretical section of this paper (Chapter 2). Dissertation Plan and Approach The following chapter contains a review of. the literature relevant to the issues under study. The first part of Chapter 2, the description of the problem, describes the uneven ethnic transformation that is occurring in rural California, and the growing strength of correlations between Latino concentration and community economic well-being. The second part of Chapter 2, the theoretical review, interprets these trends through multiple theoretical frameworks, including Dependency and World Systems Theories, Neo- Classical Economic theories including Human Capital, Social Capital, and Central Place theories, and demographic explanations. To date, there are few studies that explore the situation of minorities becoming majorities in rural communities, or that relate transnation impacts of foreign-bor to develop . phenomena chapter. ear applicabilir correspond: developed t Question 1 Cha study these on either on quantitative quantitative the past. Tl. Causal facto: Caliform'a f( focusing 0n Commllrtitie: meaningftd I mumllle sou testing new 1 Quad. Through Whit explanallms Study. While transnationalism to rural community conditions in the United States, or that study the impacts of Latinos who were born in the United States separately from those who are foreign-born. Therefore, a broad range of theoretical perspectives is included in an attempt to develop a comprehensive model of these understudied processes. These are complex phenomena. Each theoretical perspective suggests one part of the picture. Within this chapter, each theoretical perspective is briefly described, followed by an explanation of its applicability to issues of ethnic and economic transformation, and the development of corresponding hypotheses. Chapter 2 ends with tables that summarize the hypotheses developed to explain: 1) ethnic transformation; and 2) community economic development (Question 1 and Question 2, respectively). Chapter 3 describes the methods of study. A multi-method approach is used to study these complex dynamics. Previous research on immigration and colonias has relied on either qualitative case studies of specific communities (e.g., Palerm 1991) or on quantitative analysis of regional trends (e. g., Taylor 1995). This study uses both quantitative and qualitative methods to gain a broader perspective than has been achieved in the past. The quantitative analysis allows for testing and comparison of hypothesized causal factors and outcomes, and allows for the inclusion of all rural communities in California for study. These tests expand on those of other quantitative researchers by focusing on the well-being of places rather than specific groups of individuals, using communities as the unit of analysis rather than census blocks or states which are not meaningful units for understanding quality-of-life, merging data in unique ways from multiple sources, studying longitudinal processes as well as current outcomes, and by testing new hypotheses. Qualitative analysis compliments the quantitative tests by examining the context through which the processes studied occur, and by allowing non-hypothesized explanations to emerge. This gives a more concrete understanding of the trends under study. While previous qualitative studies have focused on individual farrnworker communitit places in th neighboring broader unt these places communitie research mi By I method are of macro pa are occurnr. allowing on Variables. V factors behi mismterpret testing, Fm [0 a Smaller the generaliz Chap hyPOIheSCSt ethnic ltansf tralnSfOITItatit remaining th ,\ [these u r isms“ Ihatt 8a" “mine t 9 communities, this project has taken a regional approach by intensely studying four different places in the San Joaquin valley, comparing them to each other, and comparing them to neighboring places with which they are economically and socially tied. This allows for a broader understanding of multiple processes affecting the movement of people to and from these places. However, it should be noted that while these places are typical of agricultural communities, they may be less typical of other rural places in California. Future qualitative research might investigate such differences. By using qualitative and quantitative analysis together, the shortcomings of each method are addressed. Quantitative analysis allows for hypothesis testing, and examination of macro patterns, but it does not articulate the processes through which the macro patterns are occuning. It also assumes apriori knowledge of the phenomenon under study, allowing only for examination of those causal factors hypothesized to affect the outcome variables. Without complementing the quantitative tests with qualitative analyses, the factors behind the trends are, at best, left as mysterious forces, or, at worst, entirely misinterpreted.4 On the other hand, qualitative data does not allow for direct hypothesis testing. Furthermore, because of its in-depth nature, the scope of data collection is limited to a smaller sample. Without complementing the qualitative analysis with quantitative tests the generalizability and the strength of findings are unknown.5 Chapter 4 displays the results of multiple regression models used to test the hypotheses that could be measured with quantitative data. Question One, which deals with ethnic transformation, is explored with four models. The first model predicts ethnic transformation with growth of Latino, non-Latino, and foreign-born population. The remaining three models predict foreign—bom, Latino, and non-Latino population growth, 4 e.g., Saenz and Thomas (1991) found correlations between ethnicity and poverty in rural areas of Texas, and that these trends were moderated by the industrial structure of the area. However, the historical processes that have led to these correlations, and that maintain them, are unknown. e.g., Palerm (1991) found that in one rural Latino community, non-Latino white residents left as Latinos began settling in the community. This suggests that white flight due to prejudice is occurring, as well as respecrivelj hypothesia (hiestion T with grosvtl demograph developmei Cha put them in social. and 1 nansformat processes. ' (Question 1 Population 3 influenced c ethnic trans: Fina Chaplet pres n10del. This and [he impj iml’llcaltions if it has had an 10 respectively, with those industrial, economic, social, and demographic variables that are hypothesized to influence growth and loss of each type of population. Subsequently, Question "Two is explored with a model that predicts community economic deve10pment with growth of each population group, and with those industrial, economic, social, and demographic variables that are hypothesized to influence community economic development. Chapter 5 uses the qualitative data to expand upon the quantitative findings, and to put them in context. The first part of the chapter describes the geographic, economic, social, and political patterns that have emerged as a result of the ethnic and economic transformations occuning in rural California, patterns that foster the continuation of these processes. The second part of the chapter looks at the question of ethnic transformation (Question 1), analyzing the factors that have led to growth and loss of each of the pOpulation groups under study. The final section of Chapter 5 looks at the factors that have influenced community economic development in places that have gone through dramatic ethnic transformations, compared to those places that have not. Finally, Chapter 6 discusses the results and their implications. The first part of this chapter presents a summary of the hypotheses, integrating them into a comprehensive model. This is followed by conjecture about the future of rural communities in California, and the implications of this research for places outside of California. Subsequently, policy implications are discussed, as well as suggestions for future research. economic restructuring. But it is unknown to what extent are this is occurring throughout California, and if it has had an effect on the ethnic composition and economic development of many places. people of .\ communiti. proportions some place 199%. Bec "colonia" h residents. 7 Mexican se bdt‘li home e“Terrence lhe Cconom their meW Presence 0f To ( [0 [he grnwi wroughout ellnlllon USC‘ Fura] Calime: CHAPTER 2. LITERATURE REVIEW Review of the Problem Changing Demographics in Rural California The ethnic composition of rural California is rapidly transforming. Latinos, mostly people of Mexican descent,6 have lived as numerical minorities within barrios of communities for decades. However, beginning in 1970, and accelerating in the 19805, the proportions of Latinos to Anglos began changing dramatically in agricultural areas, so that some places became almost completely composed of Hispanic residents (Rochin and Lopez 1995). Because many of the new Latino residents are immigrants from Mexico, the term “colonia” has been used to describe rural communities with a large proportion of Latino residents. This is a Spanish term that literally means colony, and refers to the fact that Mexican settlers often maintain ties to friends and family in Mexico, remitting earnings back home (Rochin and Castillo 1995). While the number of colonias is increasing, their emergence has been virtually ignored.7 It is not known why they are developing, or what the economic consequences of their formation will be. However, there are indications that their formation is due as much to the reaction of non-Latino whites, as to the actual presence of immigrants. To date, most of the changing ethnicity in rural California towns has been attributed to the growing Latino population, especially immigration from Mexico (e.g., Palerm 1991; 6 Throughout this dissertation the term “Latinos” is used because it correSponds with the operational definition used for census data analysis (i.e., all persons of Hispanic origin). However, most Latinos in rural California are of Mexican descent, with an increasing number of immigrants coming from Central America. 7 Notable exceptions include Palerm (e.g., 1995), Rochin (e.g., 1995), and Saenz (e.g., 1991). 11 Rochin an- population tould tncr population 19805. the [Rochin at population Tht each of lit spreads our and l990. numbers. 0 population Throughou White-non. add the gro Chinges in . illustration 12 Rochin and Lopez 1995; Taylor 1995). However, this is just one facet of changing population composition in California. Obviously, the proportion of Latinos in a place would increase without an increase in the actual number of Latinos, if non-Latino white population decreased. While the population of most rural communities grew during the 19805, the numbers of non-Latino white people decreased in absolute and relative amounts (Rochin and Lopez 1995). Furthermore, the growth and loss of non-Latino White population varied considerably from place to place (Allensworth and Rochin 1996). These trends are shown graphically in Figure 1, which displays a dot and a box for each of 126 rural places that were at least 25 percent Latino in 1980. The horizontal axis spreads out the communities from a low to a high growth in total population between 1980 and 1990. The vertical axis measures the degree of population growth, in absolute numbers, of each community from 1980 to 1990. The dots show the growth in overall population of each community. The boxes show the growth of non-Latino population. Throughout rural California, over 95 percent of the population classifies itself as either white-non-Hispanic, or Hispanic. Therefore, gaps between the growth in total population and the growth in non-Latino population indicate the amount of population growth due to changes in Latino population. A few communities are named within the chart for illustration. Figure 1. 13 25000 - 20000 - 15000 - 10000 5000 ' + Change in Cathedral City Overall Population _n_ Change in N on-Latino Population E .. r" l .7 . . EB 51- ' ".l’liffln'jih‘lfig‘v) WINTER-i” m l sf’pvyrl'fl‘n. ‘ " L. ' ... L! -I 53 J ,2 u ‘ S m i‘fi ‘ E 9 a S E a e “Vi-”Elie all I r “'lrtn'fig? g a t 9 ,.,_. _. E A e T” N u u 33" °~ = >52 3—- ""° .5 c _ gr' :_:. = arreaéive a .2: 2~3§ E—E'Es-E’Eg— gases;— _' =an =05 E "'3: 3335 4:53 "5 E g E” "3053-23 5 Z =..l.= E— > a: —3 Jr: 3-— : v :5 mm o: = a 2’3 r: 538 “o “-* ~- = “—1 c = .— L—o u 0. :50 U LI. 3: u g 5 cf g g 3 1.. 2 Em E u. '- :2 Communities Figure 1. N on—Latino and Overall Population Growth in 126 Rural Places (1980-1990) _g.__. -_.___' .4. 7 Fit communit changes in making up population 1990. Nor corrnnuntt: among bot most often Taylor l9§ ontement M becomes a along With increasingl‘ Cnttelated \ mnre econe lnCTeailnglj intros-ems highfil Conc Wealthy, 0r because it it. Con [hill CQmmu 14 Figure 1 shows that most of the overall population growth in California's Latino communities can be attributed to increases in Latino population. In these 126 communities, changes in Latino population account for over 100 percent of the pOpulation growth, making up for absolute losses in non-Latino white population. Without growth in Latino population, the overall population in most places would have decreased between 1980 and 1990. Nonetheless, non-Latino Whites added significantly to the growth of many communities. The reasons for such differing patterns of population growth and loss among both Latinos and non-Latinos are unknown. While agricultural restructuring is most often mentioned in the literature as the reason for immigration (e. g., Rochin 1995; Taylor 1995), it does not explain the movement of peOple outside of agriculture, nor the movement of non-immigrants, and it has not been tested with alternative hypotheses. Ethnicity and Community Well-Being While the changing ethnic composition of rural places may be interesting in itself, it becomes a matter of urgent study when the economic conditions of places are exarrrined along with demographic changes. At the same time that rural California is becoming increasingly Latino, the economic conditions of rural places are becoming increasingly correlated with the ethnicity of community residents. Rural areas have traditionally been more economically homogenous than urban areas, but now some places are becoming increasingly wealthy, while neighboring communities are becoming increasingly impoverished. Those places that are becoming more greatly impoverished tend to have higher concentrations of Latino residents, while those places that are becoming increasingly wealthy, or maintaining their economic position, have lower percentages of Latinos. Therefore, understanding the causes of the changing ethnicity of rural places is important because it is closely tied to their economic well-being. Comparison of the socio-economic indicators of places by their ethnic composition reveals disturbing inequalities. Analysis of census data from both 1980 and 1990 revealed that communities with higher percentages of Latino residents were significantly more disadvant and Rochi capita inc percent or The avera; places wid Similarly. college de; majority p T Tamale St: Per Capita Unemployr Poverty Ra High schist Furt Strenger in bivafjale reg 15 disadvantaged than communities with lower percentages of Latino residents (Allensworth and Rochin 1995 ; Castillo 1991; Rochin and Lopez 1995). Table 1 shows that the mean per capita income of all nonmetropolitan places in 1990 was $12,461, but in places in which 50 percent or more of the residents were Latino, the mean per capita income was only $701 1. The average poverty rate among all rural California places was 15 percent, but among places with a majority of Latino residents the average poverty rate was 28 percent. Similarly, among all rural places, the average percentages of adults with high school or college degrees were 69 percent and 13 percent, compared to 37 and four percent in Latino- majority places. Table 1. Community Economic Variables by Percent Latino Average of all 0 - 25% 25 - 50% 50%+ Rural Places Latino Iatino Latino in CA Places Places Places Sample Size 365 252 52 60 Per Capita Income $12,461 $14,180 $10,456 $7,01 l Unemployment Rate 5% 4% 6% 1 1% Poverty Rate 15% l 1% 18% 28% High School Graduates 69% 79% 60% 37% College Graduates 13% 17% 20% 4% Furthermore, the relationship between ethnicity and community well-being was stronger in 1990 than in 1980 (Rochin and Lopez 1995). Table 2 shows the results of bivariate regression equations that regress community poverty and education rates against the percet In each ca ts'as stron percent m people in .385 for e; Latino pot and .08 pe :ncremed Percent of School De Percent 0p 301116 Colle "FrOm RCX TnVe allllfnach (e Allholygh ge \ 8% table d1 .f-L _..~___’ _ _~. 16 the percentage of Latino residents in a community, using data from both 1980 and 1990.8 In each case, the amount of the variance in the dependent variable explained by ethnicity was stronger in 1990 than in 1980, and the regression coefficient was larger. In 1980, one percent more Latinos in a community was associated with an average of .173 percent more people in poverty, while in 1990 the average percentage of people in poverty increased by .285 for each percentage of the population that was Latino. In 1980, each percentage of Latino population was associated with .51 percent fewer adults with a high school degree, and .08 percent fewer adults with some college education. By 1990, these coefficients had increased to .64 and .15, respectively (Rochin and Lopez 1995). Table 2. Bivariate Regression Equations: Community Economic Indicators by Ethnic Composition Indicators Value of Intercept Coefficient R-Sguare Percent in Poverty 1980: 7.40% 0.173 .41 1990: 5.00% 0.285 .54 Percent of Adults with High 1980: 71.70% -0.509 .61 School Degree 1990: 87.50% -0.644 .79 Percent of Adults with 1980: 11.10% -0.082 .17 Some College 1990: 10.10% -0.154 .3 5 *From Rochin and Lopez (1995) Theoretical Overview Investigations into immigration in rural areas and the consequent growth of social and economic problems have generally taken either a World Systems/ Dependency theory approach (e.g., Cantu 1994), or a rational-economic approach (e. g., Taylor 1995). Although generally considered dissimilar, both perspectives view inequality as developing 8 This table differs from the Table 1 by including only places that were at least 25 percent Latino in 1980. from diffe and use it Dr betneen p norld-ecc lattno po inequality l'ntred St; grotsth of the norld- through rt, .\'e prediction marimizat These lhec through th Ollht PTOC lmlledimet Social Cap economic 1 material f0 Th: developmg elllllic 00m EconOmica Theory frat ConTexts w] 17 from differences in the distribution of capital, and the ability of people and places to acquire and use income, wealth, technology, and raw materials. Dependency/World Systems Theories focus on the political and social divisions between people and places that have developed over time, through the development of the world—economic system. From a Dependency/World Systems perspective, the growth of Latino population in rural areas of the United States, and the concurrent rise in economic inequality, can be viewed as a result of the relative economic positions of Mexico and the United States during a period of industrial restructuring. This perspective explains the growth of poverty within economically prosperous areas as a result of the restructuring of the world-economic system. However, it does not explain why particular places have gone through marked ethnic and economic transformations, while neighboring places have not. Neoclassical economic theories, on the other hand, have been used to make specific predictions about economic outcomes. This perspective focuses on the role of utility maximization within the marketplace to understand individuals’ behavior and outcomes. These theories ignore social and political divisions between people that have been created through the development of the world-system. However, they inform our understanding of the processes that maintain inequalities among people and places, highlighting structural impediments to equality. Furthermore, Neoclassical Economic theories on Human and Social Capital extend the conception of what is capital by explaining differences in the economic position of people and places with seemingly similar relations to capital in its material form. Therefore, this investigation seeks to build on the strengths of both perspectives by developing an integrated theoretical model of the causes and consequences of the changing ethnic composition of rural places in California. Hypotheses are based on Neoclassical Economical principles and theories, but interpreted within the context of a Dependency Theory framework. Principles of economic action are seen as embedded within social contexts which alter predictions that would be made by conventional economic models, consisten core-pent contexts. the procei ntthm an E2 ethnicity 2 begins n i' questions of hypotht is a descri Th 311d Worlc ST'SIEm, gu increasing Ollit'ing d COmpositir hi'POIheses OfCapital a discussed‘ Finally, de- and age str Fig and comm, lament,r2 levels 0f m. C0813), 8601 18 consistent with the “new economic sociology” (see Portes 1995: 3). These contexts include core-periphery differences, ethnic identities, immigration networks, changing demographic contexts, and geographical factors. Neoclasssical economic models are used to articulate the processes through which core-periphery relations are being recreated and retained within and between rural communities of California. Each of the following sections develops hypotheses about the causes of changing ethnicity and economic development based on a unique theoretical perspective. Each section begins with a brief explanation of the theory, and concludes with its applicability to the questions regarding ethnic transformation and economic deve10pment, and the development of hypotheses regarding each of the two questions. Prior to the discussion of the theories is a description of the layout of the hypotheses. The first three sections, Agricultural/Industrial Restructuring, Ethnic Subordination, and World City Hypothesis, place California’s colonias within the context of the world system, suggesting that it is economic differences between places and people that are increasing ethnic and economic segregation. The subsequent section suggests that it is cost of living differences between places that encourage migration and changes in ethnic composition. The following two sections, those on Human and Social Capital, build upon hypotheses in the previous sections by showing that non-tangible as well as tangible forms of capital affect migration decisions and economic outcomes. Central Place theory is then discussed, as economic decisions are embedded in geographic as well as social contexts. Finally, demographic explanations are posed which suggest that it is changing family size and age structure that explain ethnic and economic changes in communities. Figure 2 summarizes the hypotheses posed in this chapter. Ethnic transformation and community development outcomes are hypothesized to vary due to industrial factors (agricultural and industrial restructuring, jobs and wages), previous economic status (1980 levels of monetary and human capital), migration, cost of living differences (housing COStS), geographic context, and demographic changes. FE EtE E E E\ l9 Industrial Factors Agricultural Restructuring, Job and Wage Growth Previous Wealth Wages, Wealth and Human Capital, 1980 Social Capital Immigration Networks, Ethnic Conflict [ Geogaphic Context: l Cost of Living Factors Housing Costs Size of Place Demographic Changes Change in Family Size and Age Structure imamfi—on Growth and Loss in Population: *Foreign-Born *Non-Latino *Latino (Hypotheses 1.X) Ethnic Composition of Communities (Hypotheses 1.X) Community Wealth and Socio-Economic Health (Hypotheses 2.X) W1 1) What are the factors leading to ethnic transformation? 2) What are the factors leading to community economic development? Figure 2. Overview of Hypotheses discussec for qualit All hypot orhenvrse decimal l decimal p both in it dashed-lit the predic tn the line COmplerit format in EthnicA’a Tl. dissenatio 316 used 12 dcl‘lniti0n Latino pop Origin. Wh The-t n0n.[ immigrant TCVels of ll] 33 a cOntro 20 Structural Layout of the Theoretical Overview Development and Presentation of Hypotheses Within the discussion of each theory, the relevance to the study of colonias is discussed, and corresponding quantitative hypotheses are presented. Questions of inquiry for qualitative study are not explicitly posed, but are based on the same theoretical review. All hypotheses refer to changes in community-level variables from 1980 to 1990 unless otherwise noted. Hypotheses addressing question 1 have the number “1” preceding a decimal point (1.X), while those addressing question 2 have the number “2” preceding a decimal point. For clarity, each hypothesis corresponding to question 1 or 2 is presented both in written and picture form. The outcome variable for question 1 is presented as a dashed-line oval, the outcome variables for question 2 are presented as full-line ovals, and the predictor variables are presented as rectangles. While all hypotheses are tested together in the final model for each question, they are not presented together in a chart due to the complexity of each model. However, the final model for each question is presented in table form at the end of the theoretical overview. Ethnic/Nativity Groups Used for Analysis The population of rural California is divided into three groups within this dissertation: non-Latinos, Latinos, and immigrants. The terms “non-Latino” and “Latino” are used rather than “white/Anglo” or “Mexican-ori gin” so that the label corresponds to the definition used to create the population variables. However, over 95 percent of the non- Latino population is “white,” and over 80 percent of the Latino population is of Mexican- origin. While it would be preferable to separate these groups into more precise categories (i.e., non-Latino whites, non-Latino non-whites, non-immigrant Latinos, and non-Latino immigrants) 1980 census classifications do not allow for these divisions. However, 1990 levels of the percentage of community residents that are non-Latino non-whites are included as a control in the final analyses. -.4‘._r Distinctic mdcconomic di? Fans} 19851. In gen up mm dill rm Tnere‘ arguiaron. and I zen different in: mains of forerg reward} from I However mm regar regarding the on the same reasons nernorks. Nlidd nonlatino whit. are developed re Whether this gro' Latino and mm Analysis of the 5 Economj among the nche; residents. While the Same PTOCCS: greater POVerty : °‘a'-1993). Th. 2 1 Distinction of Latinos from immigrants is necessary because of the large cultural and economic differences between these groups (e. g., Bean, et al. 1994; Neidert and Farley 1985). Immigrants are not necessarily either citizens or legal residents, and most grew up with different educational and economic expectations, as well as a different first language. Therefore, it is expected that factors affecting the growth of immigrant population, and the economic changes associated with this population growth, would be very different from those affecting other Latinos. While the data do not allow for separate analysis of foreign-born and U.S.-born Latinos, Latino population growth is examined separately from that of foreign-born population growth. However, because non-immigrant Latinos are understudied, development of hypotheses regarding this group is much more difficult than development of hypotheses regarding the other population groups. Latinos of lower SES may be attracted to areas for the same reasons as Latino immigrants -- low-skill jobs, housing, or family and friendship networks. Middle-class Latinos might be attracted to other places for the same reasons as non-Latino whites -- social class conflict, or high-wage jobs. Therefore, fewer hypotheses are developed regarding this group. However, exploratory analyses are performed to test whether this group is affected by the same variables as those hypothesized to affect non— Latino and immigrant population growth. Analysis of the Socio-Economic Well-Being of Places Economic goals of a place can be of multiple types, ranging from growth of wealth among the richest community members, to the development of programs for low-income residents. While these goals may be complementary, they can also be contradictory. Often the same processes lead to both greater wealth among the richer community members and greater poverty among the most disadvantaged (Brown & Warner 1991; Levy 1995; Snipp, et a1. 1993). Therefore, community economic deve10pment is examined through multiple measures, each representing a different facet of economic development: income, income ““\. from wealth. ed tell-being are g uhltlt conceptu Health" or hich c unemployment l ie'telopment are deteiopment in Depends uealth. and resc that pul'f‘li} tent economic stmcti economic grout 1971). Just as c produce surplus exchange and ur World-s: Composed of one system is deterrr global division r develolied/under places. Core pla dependent Upon political and eco CCOnOmiC adVan‘ 90 _ Peratrona] define 22 from wealth, education levels, poverty, and unemployment.9 The measures of community well-being are grouped under two labels for the development of hypotheses: “Wealth,” which conceptually consists of mean levels of income and wealth, and “Socio—Economic Health” which conceptually consists of measures of economic distress (poverty and unemployment). Factor analysis will be used to determine if separate scales of economic development are appropriate, and which items best measure each component of development (wealth versus health). World—Systems and Dependency Theories Dependency theory is a neo—marxist explanation of spatial inequality in technology, wealth, and resources. Inequality is explained through the law of uneven development-- that poverty tends to be produced simultaneously with wealth. From this perspective, the economic structures of “underdeveloped” places are seen as the result of their role in the economic growth of other, more affluent, places (Castells 1973; Frank 1972; Hymer 1971). Just as capitalists become wealthy through the exploitation of workers forced to produce surplus value, more powerful places exploit poorer places through unequal exchange and undervaluation of weaker places’ labor and raw materials. World—systems expands on dependency theory by emphasizing that the world is composed of one complete division of labor. The economic position of any place in the system is determined by the history of its incorporation, and its current position in the global division of labor. World-systems theory also expands upon the developed/underdeveloped dichotomy of dependency theory by posing a 3-tiered system of places. Core places possess the most capital and technology, periphery places are lependent upon the technology and capital of the core, and semi-periphery places serve as a )olitical and economic buffer between the other two (W allerstein 1974). Because of the economic advantages they possess, core areas are able to enrich themselves by exploiting Operational definitions of all variables are listed in Table 5. the economic < resources thélt some lllleldUi people or place economy. disp sun'ue t‘Fuent med States can he s the early 19005 inequality betu shortages. The force workers l .‘ilcCaughan 1C, potential incorr immigration tl The cur restructuring in my I0 more so WOTk (Cohen 1 core,“ employn “’O’l‘lng condit ”CW lessdesira immigration rej who. While restructuring, 23 the economic dependence of peripheral areas through undervaluation of the land, labor, and resources that peripheral areas and peripheral workers must sell to survive. Wealth for some individuals or regions is therefore produced through the impoverishment of other people or places. As traditional economies are destroyed through expansion of the world economy, displaced peripheral workers migrate to core areas to gain capital, or simply to survive (Fuentes and Ehrenreich 1989; King 1989; Sivanandan 1990). From this perspective, the uneven economic status between Mexico and the United States can be seen to both push and pull workers from Mexico to the United States. Since the early 1900s, farms and firms in the United States have taken advantage of the economic inequality between the two countries to attract labor from Mexico during times of labor shortages. The United States has then used the political distinction between the countries to force workers back to Mexico during times of labor surplus (Dixon, Martinez and McCaughan 1985; Galarza 1977). High unemployment in Mexico, and large disparities in potential income between the two countries encourage continuing and increasing immigration (Huffman and Mirankowski 1996). Agricultural and Industrial Restructuring The current surge in labor migration can be seen as a result of global economic restructuring in which global competition is increasing, core sector employment is giving way to more secondary sector employment, and formal sector work to more informal sector work (Cohen 1987; Sassen 1988, 1990b). In a process called “peripheralization at the core,” employment in the core is becoming increasingly deskilled with lower wages and working conditions, while immigrants, ethnic minorities and women are recruited to fill the new less—desirable positions (Sassen-Koob 1982). The processes of restructuring and immigration reinforce each other——restructuring of industry creates demand for low-wage workers, while the availability of low-wage workers allows for continuing industrial restructuring. In rural result of the r6 the L'nited Stat eiuacuon thro ashitt from on labor force llllt California was oft;- ese changr labor contractc labor needs to and unemployr informal sector through farm 1. The rel demonstrated t Latino settleme Latinos were ir cOncentrations agIlCultural COl labor force in ( '"tensification . Never t all“ [he settle 0f l0w.wage la 24 In rural California, the growth in immigration is generally believed to be a direct result of the restructuring of agriculture (e.g., Krissman .1995; Palerm 1991). Throughout the United States, the restructuring of agriculture can be seen as an intensification of profit- extraction through greater integration of farms into the control of agribusiness corporations, a shift from owner-operated farms to hired-labor corporations, and peripheralization of the labor force through the use of farm-labor contractors (Labao 1990). Partly because California was never dominated by small family—operated farms, it has been in the forefront of these changes, relying on a mobile, flexible labor force, and increasingly relying on farm labor contractors (Galarza 1977; Palerm 1991; SCR 43 1991). Growers subcontract their labor needs to contractors to undermine laws pertaining to documentation, wages, benefits, and unemployment insurance. This allows the work to move from the formal to the informal sector. More than 50% of the San Joaquin Valley’s work force is now hired through farm labor contractors (Krissman 1995). The relationship between immigration and the demand for agricultural labor is demonstrated through changes in the ethnic composition of the agricultural labor force, and Latino settlement patterns in rural California. In 1950, the highest concentrations of Latinos were in towns along the United States - Mexico border. By 1980 the highest concentrations of Latinos in rural communities had shifted to the Central Valley of California, particularly in Kern, Fresno, and Tulare counties -- among the richest agricultural counties in the United States (Rochin and Lopez 1995). Currently, the farm labor force in California is almost completely Latino. Mexican immigrants have replaced white farmers exiting the workforce, and have filled the new jobs created by the intensification of California agriculture (Palerm 1991). Never the less, while the assumption is that changes in agriculture have brought about the settlement of immigrants in rural communities, it is also likely that the availability of loW-w age labor has encouraged the intensification of California agriculture. Greater availability of low-wage workers encourages the use of hired agricultural labor and the grouth of large ot't' imrnigratio competition. at and Lopez 199 make special is IlRCAt ol l98 lRCA. met 1.: Sills season. under lRCA he and Castillo 19 The rel; reciprocal: [he tthile the avail; immigrant labo ‘1999lh’h010t aisociated with immlt‘lation w; l'anable of litter Previous study immigration ha atticultura] emplo- . T--. ~ - -..r.m~.-r- 14“,, 251;... ;~- ~ V 25 growth of large farms. This perspective has been implied through suggestions that cutting off immigration would improve the situation of most rural Latinos by increasing job competition, and thus increasing farm wages (e. g., Krissman 1995; Martin 1995; Rochin and Lopez 1995). California's farm lobbyists convinced the United States Congress to make special farm worker provisions within the Immigration Reform and Control Act (IRCA) of 1986 to ensure the availability of seasonal farm workers. Since the passage of IRCA, over 1.2 million workers from Mexico have registered to work in agriculture as SAWS (seasonal agricultural workers). Furthermore, the threat of employer sanctions under IRCA has not impeded the hiring of undocumented workers (Palerm 1991; Rochin and Castillo 1995). The relationship between immigrant settlement and agricultural restructuring is reciprocal: the availability of low-wage labor encourages the intensification of agriculture, while the availability of agricultural jobs encourages more permanent settlement of immigrant laborers and their families. This was the conclusion of Taylor and Martin (1996) who found that in agricultural areas, a 100-person increase in farm workers was associated with a 143-person increase in immigration, while a lOO-person increase in immigration was associated with a 36-person increase in farm workers.19 As the dependent variable of interest in this pr0posal is immigration, and this previous study suggests that farm employment has a larger effect on immigration than immigration has on farm employment, restructuring and agricultural employment is used only as a dependent variable of foreign-born population growth. 10 However, they did not separate agricultural employment growth from growth in the number of agricultural employees (assuming they were the same thing), so that it cannot be concluded that it was agricultural employment, rather then other factors, that attracted farm laborers to these places. Hypothesi and grout population that is Lati 1| Resume Aretha l The tra Changes in the and intensrf}; ( Operators. Mo Hl'Pothesis Showed g“ l” the pace In 194', agn'culmre’ SUE (Arvin) had be . 1 IL, 26 Hypothesis 1.1: Places that experienced relatively more agricultural restructuring and growth in agricultural employment showed larger increases in foreign—bom population. This brought relatively larger gains in the percentage of their population that is Latino. Agricultural Growth in I érouth in Percentages Restructuring/ Increasing Foreign-Born ' of Community that IS Agricultural Employment Population ‘ ‘ Latho ’ ’ ~ ‘ .---— Figure 3. Hypothesis 1.1 The transformation of agriculture in California may also have brought some of the changes in the non-Latino pOpulation of agricultural communities. As farms consolidate and intensify, communities lose former independent small- and medium-size farm Operators. Most of these operators are non-Hispanic whites (Palerm 1991; Rochin 1995). Hypothesis 1.2: Places that experienced relatively more agricultural restructuring showed greater losses in non-Latino population. This brought relatively larger gains in the percentage of their population that is Latino. v " ' ~ I F AQHCUlthal Growth of Non-Latino _ 'Growth' in Percentage‘ Restructuring Population ' of the Community that ' ‘ g is Latino ’ I Figure 4. Hypothesis 1.2 In 1947, Goldschmidt documented the social consequences of industrialized agriculture, suggesting that large farms which use labor promote community inequality and lower community well being. He found that the socioeconomic relations in one small town (AIVin) had become more like those characteristic of a highly differentiated urban economy than an agricu comparison to tiere bigger ar commerce. 20 advanced com institutions. ar hate supporter 1930's hate rer From a result of the pi l’nequal derel efforts for prof PTOSpered beca PTOSpects of W “3363‘ Withou: ll'orlting Condi' l‘orkers remaii person growth Person increase California With The em Olhtl fonns 0ft Very i"lilortant reslmCturjng 01 llldllSlria] term . N01 all r y es '"dushalizell all 27 ran an agricultural town, due to Arvin’s dependence on large farms with hired labor. His omparison town, Dinuba, was supported by smaller, family—operated farms. Arvin farms vere bigger and farm revenue was six times more, but Dinuba had twice the local :ommerce, 20% higher median incomes, over twice as much self-employment, more advanced community infrastructure, more and better schools, more democratic local nstitutions, and more civic organizations (Goldschmidt 1978). Many subsequent studies have supported Goldschmidt’s findings, although studies done subsequent to the early 19803 have reported mixed findings (see Labao 1990).11 From a Dependency theory perspective, this inequality can be seen as a natural result of the pursuit of economic gain, without regard to even economic development. Unequal development occurs when industrial development is determined primarily by efforts for profit-maximization (Storper and Walker 1989). Califomia’s agriculture has prospered because it has been able to take economic advantage of the poor economic prospects of workers from Mexico and Central America. Because they are paid such low wages, without guarantee of continued employment, and with difficult and dangerous 0 working conditions, workers remain poor, and communities which host agricultural 3‘ workers remain impoverished. Taylor and Martin (1996), for example, found that a 100- person growth in the number of farm laborers in communities was correlated with a 132- person increase in poverty. This explains the existence of some of the poorest places in California within one of the most profitable agricultural areas in the country. The emphasis on agricultural restructuring, however, obscures the existence of other forms of economic production in rural California. While agricultural employment is Very important in Califomia’s colonias, it is not the sole form of employment. The restructuring of agricultural labor use can be viewed as part of a general trend observed in industrial restructuring, in which production is becoming increasingly decentralized, n Not all types of restructuring have shown negative impacts on communities. While the growth of large .ndustrialized farms with greater use of hired non-family labor tends to produce a tow-tiered class structure, contracted out tulnerable to 1 educational 1e Gringen 1994 Given rs possible the res'ructunng. pieces that ha experienced g robs and. there accompanied ' economic heai restructuring 5 economic hea. itage growth. the aroma] 6mm” men: -‘-'M ' " 28 intracted out to peripheral or competitive-sector firms. Rural communities are especially rlnerable to trends in restructuring because of their lack of economic power, lower iucational levels, and less diversity in employment (Davidson 1990; Flora, et a1. 1992; iringeri 1994). Given that immigration and restructuring seem to be mutually reinforcing events, it 5 possible that decreasing community well-being might be due to agricultural and industrial festructuring, and the resultant change in the availability and rewards of employment, in places that have experienced immigrant population growth. Normally, places that have experienced greater job growth in any sector should have a loosening of competition for jobs and, therefore, economic growth. However, if the increase in jobs available was not accompanied by wage growth, the effect of job growth on variables representing socio- economic health would be minimal. Therefore, places that have experienced more restructuring should show greater growth in wealth and income, but not greater socio- economic health (i.e., less poverty and unemployment), controlling for overall job and wage growth. fl the actual economic conditions of workers vary by the structure of local agricultural systems (Labao 1990). Hypothes experieno increased 530th err stealth. looandWagz f‘ A gncul u ‘lestwau Becau and detnments Clhinges in p01 sane lime that restructuring \r lmmlgration lr Conse(liltfnces “Hammer [0 w, 33mg Therefi rather [han SUr individual com 29 Hypothesis 2.1: Places that experienced relatively more agricultural restructuring experienced relatively less growth in community socio-economic health, but increased community wealth. Places that experienced relatively greater job and wage growth experienced relatively larger increases in measures of both development and wealth. lfiob and Wage Growth A gricut ural _ + G rowth C Restruct uring in C ommmity Wealth Figure 5. Hypothesis 2.1 Because the effects of restructuring result in benefits for higher-SES individuals, and detriments for those of lower-SES, examination of the interaction of employment with I changes in population is crucial. For example, if a region experienced restructuring at the same time that higher-SES people moved from Town A to Town B, the benefits of llllll“ restructuring would accrue more greatly to Town B than to town A. If, at the same time, immigration increased to Town A, this town would suffer more of the negative consequences of restructuring than would Town B. Furthermore, because many people commute to work, place of employment and place of residence are not necessarily the same. Therefore, regional job growth and restructuring, measured through survey of firms rather than survey of peOple, must be studied to determine the effects of restructuring on individual communities. Hypothes by restrut loss in no restnrcrur in immigr l henna .ttri a G'avtr / lhe in encourage the 119951 found 1 ll‘hites with 10 Iowage jobs Therefore, pla i”migration o (“"9 Places th growth in b Oti ' 8'- '.“ m V .3“ V ,‘ 3O Hypothesis 2.2: Community socio—econornic health was most negatively impacted by restructuring in places that experienced growth in foreign-born population and a loss in non-Latino population. Community wealth was most strongly enhanced by restructuring, wage growth, and job growth in areas that experienced smaller growth in immigrant population, and greater growth in non-Latino population. . + Growth in Emmerich and Wage _ Community rowt Socio—Econom'c Health .1»- ' ( Reg‘onal «‘fl + Restructuring V v7 + ( Growth oi Foreigi-Born and Non-Latino Population Figure 6. Hypothesis 2.2 The increasing informalization of work (both in agriculture and industry) might also encourage the emigration of residents with better opportunities in other locations. Frey (1995) found that metropolitan areas experiencing high immigration showed emigration of whites with low levels of education. He hypothesized that this was due to competition for low-wage jobs and inexpensive housing among low—skill native workers and immigrants. Therefore, places experiencing restructuring might be experiencing both growing immigration of foreign-born workers, and outmigration of native workers. At the same time, places that are experiencing job growth without decreasing wages should show growth in both native and immigrant populations. Hypothe: larger ga grouth. t foreign-b ethnic co l lags—{3c l JG) Grow: gmwlh, and Cl independewy 31 Hypothesis 1.3: Places that experienced relatively larger wage increases showed larger gains in U.S.-born population. Places that experienced relatively more job growth, controlling for wage growth, experienced relatively larger growth of both foreign-born and native pOpulations. Each of these, in turn, affected community ethnic composition. Growthd U..S Born NonLat'no POpulation Growthof U..S Born Latino Popdation Growth'n the ‘ L Wage Grorvth (— Growth'n inmigationj/ ' Peroert age d : Jcb Groivt h from Nbxico’ ‘ Popuation that is Lat‘n American + . ~ Lat'no . Figure 7. Hypothesis 1.3 To summarize, previous research has suggested that agricultural restructuring has led to growing Latino population in rural areas, and to declining economic conditions in those same places. This evidence includes strong correlations between employment in agriculture and the percentages of immigrants in places (Rochin and Lopez 1995; Taylor and Martin 1996), and qualitative documentation of increasing informalization of agriculture through farm labor contractors, growing use of workers from Mexico and Central America, and impoverishment of communities that host farm workers (Krissman 1995; Palerm 1991; Taylor and Martin 1996). Hypotheses 1.1 through 1.3 and 2.1 through 2.2 expand upon these findings by 1) longitudinally testing the relationships between agricultural restructuring and employment, immigration and Latino population growth, and community economic well-being, 2) measuring changes in employment independently of changes in population, and 3) looking beyond field work to examine the diets of en through the . The 3 to imrnigrati inunigrant a lirrutations e. no the \l'or States from 3 past. and the The dei'elop economic op born outside Places can di Mexi since the inci Guadalurie-} “935 from N. abOut the ties (Mexico yen European). m0re MCSllzt do in Carin)” Whites (Almv K .12 Tailor andn l lglathn ant 32 effects of employment in other industries.12 Moreover, alternative explanations are tested through the addition of hypotheses deve10ped in the following sections. Ethnic Subordination / Labor Market Segmentation The hypotheses offered above assume that growing numbers of low-wage jobs lead to immigration and Latino population growth because of the limited economic options of immigrant and minority workers. From a World-Systems perspective, these economic limitations can be seen as developing through the incorporation of California and Mexico into the World Economic System--the conquest of what is now the Southwest United States from Mexico, the legal restrictions placed on Mestizos and Native Americans in the past, and the continuing restrictions placed on people born outside of the United States. The development of California’s economy has involved the segregation of pe0ple’s economic options based on race/ethnicity. It continues to restrict legal Options for persons born outside of the United States. Therefore, it is possible that the ethnic composition of places can directly affect their economic well-being. Mexicans and Mexican-Americans have been considered “second class” citizens since the incorporation of California and other Southwest states with the Treaty of Guadalupe-Hidalgo in 1848 (Nakano Glenn 1991). The conquest of California and other areas from Mexico, and the migration of non-Hispanic white people to the area, brought about the development of political distinctions between people based on their place of birth (Mexico versus the United States) and their ancestry (native American/Mestizo versus European). Historically, Mexican-origin men and women, especially those who looked more Mestizo or native American, were restricted in the type of work they were allowed to do in California, and the legal rights to which they were entitled compared to non-HiSpanic whites (Almaguer 1994). 12 Taylor and Martin (1996) did longitudinally examine the influence of farm and non-farm work on Immigration and poverty, but they did not independently measure employment and residence (i.e., they Althr mme perceptions r options for e Furthermore do. and whet jobs that lie: unstable cm; by employer: serr’ices rNa] Giver rllSdlll'amage lmtttigrant pt economic cor m3." bt panic However, the CO"lllltlnities Continuing n grOWlh Of can ”mm In the \ assumed [hat m( 33 Although racial segregation is now illegal, ethnic labor market segmentation and structural economic impediments continue. They are maintained ideologically through perceptions of who is “legitimate” in a position and who is not, and by structurally limiting options for education, social relationships, and access to programs and services.13 Furthermore, workers from Mexico m legally restricted as to the type of work they can do, and whether or not they can work at all in the United States. By restricting the types of jobs that Mexican and Mexican—American workers can obtain, competition for low-wage unstable employment remains strong. Their limited options allow for greater exploitation by employers, and greater vulnerability to competition with other migrants for jobs and services (Naples 1991; Eades 1986; Cohen 1987). Given that Latinos, and especially immigrant Latinos, continue to be economically disadvantaged compared with non-Latino whites, it is possible that growth in Latino and immigrant population can lower the economic profile of a place, regardless of other economic conditions. The economic differences between ethnic and national-origin groups may be partially explained through possession of financial, social, and human capital. However, the migration patterns of immigrants, Latinos, and non-Latinos into and out of communities might also have direct effects On community economic well-being because of continuing cultural, social, and structural gaps between these groups. The influence of the growth of each population group on community development is discussed below. Immigrants (Mexicans) In the popular press, it has been suggested that immigration is obscuring the assumed that more farm workers meant more agricultural employment), and they did not control for the influence of non-immigrant migration, housing, or demographic changes. 13 For example, the selective enforcement of immigration laws againSt workers, bl“ “Qt employers, and the accidental deportation and detainment of documented irnrni grants create fear and insecurity in all immigrants, making them more passive workers (Eades 1986; Cohen 1987). Refusal to rent or sell housing to individuals based on ethnicity, or to provide translators and services in Spanish language, limits Latinos’ economic Options. Police harassment of Latinos limits integration into the community. Fear Of attracting governmental attention to friends and family members and 9001’ English Skills limit the pursuance 0f medical and social assistance for which citizens and legal immigrants are eligible (Amato 1996; Benson 1996; Gouveia and Stull 1996', Martin, Taylor and Fix 1996)‘ financial suc recent immi 19961. In 0 residents are Ther econonric di lorr-rrage let their earning 19931. Hort-e one is a prefr conditions. . maintains rrr: immigrants r English profi 1995; V erdu; from llexicc cOllltolling f( Mexican jmn l’leltican.0n'E There growth and 3‘ from Mexico i"litter of inrr Lower] and T that negallVe, 14h ShOul d be 34 financial success of Latinos and the nation as a whole by confounding the conditions of recent immigrants with those Of established residents (e. g., Chavez 1989; Samuelson 1996). In other words, it may appear that places with greater percentages Of Latino residents are doing poorly, when it is only immigrants who are poor.14 There is no doubt that immigrants from Mexico and Central America suffer multiple economic disadvantages compared to native workers. They have been preferred sources of low-wage labor because they lack alternatives for higher earnings, because many compare their earnings to those possible in Mexico, and because many are undocumented (Rumbaut 1992). However, possibilities for increasing occupational status and earnings are limited if one is a preferred worker just because he/she accepts lower wages and more difficult conditions. Among undocumented workers, unequal enforcement of immigration laws maintains many immigrants as permanent “marginal” workers (Cantu 1995). Even among immigrants who obtain legal documentation, lack of work experience in the United States, English proficiency, and education keep them disadvantaged in the labor market (Ortiz 1995; Verdugo and Verdugo 1985; Trejo 1995). On average, it takes male immigrants from Mexico 16 years to overcome the wage gap with U.S.-bom Mexican-origin workers, controlling for human capital, citizenship, work, and demographicvvariables, while female Mexican immigrants’ average earnings never “catch up” to the average earnings Of Mexican-origin women born in the United States (Allensworth 1996). Therefore, immigration might have a direct effect on measures of communities’ growth and socio-economic health due to the poverty and low-incomes of most immigrants from Mexico. Evidence on this is contradictory. Many studies have shown no negative impact of immigration on employment and wages in urban labor markets (e.g., Bean, Lowell and Taylor 1988; Fix and Passel 1994). However, more recent studies have shown that negative impacts might be hidden by emigration Of less skilled native workers (Frey 14 It should be noted that the proponents of such theories view this possibility optimistically, as a sign that the United States does not have to worry as much about Latino poverty. ThJS perspective assumes that 1995: Taylc foreign-bon incomes. Tl examined si and must all Hypothe growth 5 Foreign-E C Whil 0f the relatio explanation, Pttcentage 01 well-being w immigrants r. p lllllary Sour. There it rs natural an d ' “‘2' 'c-IL ' " £—;__ '- 35 1995; Taylor and Martin 1996). Furthermore, Taylor (1995) found that places with large foreign-born populations had both more people in poverty and higher mean family incomes. Therefore, the effects of immigration on community economic health must be examined simultaneously with migration patterns Of native workers and job/wage growth, and must allow for both positive and negative economic effects. Hypothesis 2.3: Places that experienced relatively more foreign born population growth showed greater decreases in socio-economic health and wealth. Growth in Community F oreign-Born Population Socio-Economic Health Growth Growth in Community Wealth Figure 8. Hypothesis 2.3 U. S. -Born Latinos (Mexican-Americans) While the much lower socio-economic status of recent migrants might explain part of the relationship between ethnicity and community well-being, it is not an adequate explanation. Correlations among community well-being variables and ethnicity (i.e., the percentage of Latino residents in a community) are stronger than correlations of community well—being with immigration (i.e., the percentage of Latino residents who are recent immigrants to the United States) (Allensworth and Rochin 1995). If immigration is the primary source of colonia inequality, this pattern should be in reverse. There are huge gaps in the education and earnings of U.S.-bom Mexican- Americans and non-Hispanic whites (Ortiz 1995; Trejo 1995). Reasons for the lower g it is natural and apprOpriate for immigrants to be much poorer than established residents. educational Coleman 19 nrinorityr id “underclass and farnil y t Mexican-Ar our society. rates of retu: are less like] difficult for be that grovr decreases in Ht'pothe ShOWed : Latino C 36 educational achievements of Mexican-Americans include lower mean SES (e.g., see Coleman 1968; Hum 1978; Kozol 1991), the formation of Oppositional (involuntary minority) identities (e.g., see Matute-Bianchi 1991; Ogbu 1987), assimilation into the “underclass” (Rumbaut and Cornelius 1995); lack of financial support for higher education, and family obligations (Young 1992). Each of these barriers to education result because Mexican-American children, on average, grow up with a lower socioeconomic position in our society. U.S.-bom Mexican-ori gin men and women earn less than whites, have lower rates of return to some human capital characteristics, are more likely to be in poverty, and are less likely to be wealthy (Allensworth 1996; Farley 1990). Because it is much more difficult for Mexican-origin men and women to acquire human or financial capital, it might be that growth in U.S.-born Latino population, as well as growth in immigrant population, decreases indicators of community socio-economic health. ‘ | Hypothesis 2.4: Places that experienced relatively more growth in Latino population showed smaller increases in economic health and wealth. Growth in Community SociO-Economic Healt Growth in Community Wealth Latino Population Growth Figure 9. Hypothesis 2.4 MIL-1.41.119 Alta mpple Ioca 1990: Jame Mexican-0r (imrnigratio human capi Immigratior accrue to a < nude in a c' H}pothc their no] health 211 No: P09 % The. cOnceived w high‘]CVe| (1‘ Importance), 37 WE Alternatively, outmigration of middle-class residents has been seen to economically cripple local communities in both central city and rural areas (Flora, et al. 1992; Luloff 1990; James 1990). White residents tend to be more affluent and better educated than Mexican-origin residents (Bean, et a1. 1994; Trejo 1995), so communities that experience outmigration of whites lose financial capital for potential community investment, and human capital for future growth. At the same time, economic gains brought by immigration (loosening of human resource constraints, farm and firm profitability) cannot accrue to a community if the farm and business owners profiting from immigrant labor reside in a different place than their workers. Hypothesis 2.5: Places that experienced relatively smaller losses / greater growth in their non-Latino white populations showed greater gains in measures of economic health and wealth. Growth in ' Health J<: - Growth In Figure 10. Hypothesis 2.5 Non -Latino White Population Growth Internal Core and Peripheg The core-periphery distinction articulated in World-Systems theory can be conceived within countries as well as between them. Urban sociologists have noted that high-level decision-making in the corporate world is concentrated in cities that have greater numbers of administrative offices (termed “world cities” because of their global Importance), with progressively less decision-making power and income in regional cities, and in lcsm City Hypotl most from t and attract t structure. E adaunrstrati highly dape Sim power hare tor technolt be unusual Ll'Son r993 areas and la better-educz I0 greater fi: i"Ulligratior. im’ttstment l Capilal in pl; inuestmem t Ll’SOn 1993. Fr0n Places Wilhi] and they are alld food PR to other plac Places With 1 lhell Own CO vmg- ‘w—v— -~-—~— ‘ . 38 and in less centralized places (Friedmann 1986; Hymer 1971; Sassen 1990). The “World City Hypotheses” suggests that for this reason particular large cities in core countries profit most from the expansion of the world-economy, as they control most of the world’s capital and attract the most highly educated people to fill higher-level positions in the corporate structure. Economic deve10pment is more difficult for areas with fewer high-level administrative offices and services, as they lack political and economic power and are highly dependent upon outside capital. Similarly, rural sociologists have noted that the most remote places with the least power have the greatest difficulty in self-determination. Their dependence on other areas for technology, production, and marketing forces rural land, labor, and natural resources to be undervalued, weakening options for economic growth and development (Falk and Lyson 1993). Because high-skill workers are more highly needed and rewarded in core areas and larger cities, rural and periphery areas are faced with the outmigration of their better-educated residents (Luloff 1990). Furthermore, investment from outside often leads to greater fiscal burdens (through service provision, infrastructure demands, and immigration of people desperate for work) as places compete with each other for investment by offering cheap labor, land, and resources. Poverty is created by the loss of capital in places where disinvestment has occurred, an_d in places that have lured capital investment through undervaluation of their labor and resources (Davidson 1990; Falk and Lyson 1993; Feagin and Smith 1987; Tickamyer and Duncan 1990; Timberlake 1987). From this perspective, Califomia’s rural colonias can be viewed as peripheral places within a core economy. Their residents are largely immigrants and ethnic minorities, and they are almost completely dependent upon outside capital, especially the agriculture and food processing industry. Therefore, they might be stagnating economically compared to other places because of this economic dependence. From the opposite perspective, rural places with more capital (greater wealth and higher incomes) should be better able control their own economic growth and more easily accumlflate wealth and maintain economic Al Lu‘- _ ..—o. -l humm.r economic C HypOth measur I 1 mom i\ Fun (mostly nor well as the COntpositior mi”Olilies a group mem Hypmhr "On-Lat POPUlati 39 viability. That is, places that started out with more wealth should have experienced greater economic deve10pment over the last decade. Hypothesis 2.6: Places that were wealthier in 1980 experienced more growth in measures of socio-economic wealth and health. ' + Growth in Community Socio-Eoonomic [ income and Wealth, 1980 + Health C Growth in Community Wealt Figure 11. Hypothesis 2.6 Furthermore, wealthier places should attract wealthier, better-educated residents (mostly non—Latino whites) because of the greater economic opportunities they hold, and as well as the loss of opportunities in poorer places. This should, in turn, affect the ethnic composition of places, with poorer places becoming more concentrated with poorer ethnic minorities and richer places attracting wealthier people who are more likely to be majority group members. Hypothesis 1.4: Places that were wealthier in 1980 experienced more growth in non-Latino population, and relatively smaller gains in the percentage of their population that is Latino. —"'-" Growth in Percelua‘e Greater Income and Growth of Non-Latino - ' ’ - g ‘ Wealth, 1930 J-—> Population ‘ 3f the iCSOLna'lrlltlnglty malt ' Q -u— Figure 12. Hypothesis 1.4 differences New York because of settling in 1 active in th agnculturau‘ ot‘their \iO' proximity f agricultural lmr cost of livir more likely rents (Huan imilligrams Children [ha HUffman ar. the uUhderc 40 Qu—stLmegem Economic “pull” factors other than jobs and employment, such as cost of living differences, should also be contributing to population growth. Fitchen (1995) found that in New York State very poor migrants were attracted to declining rural areas primarily because of the availability of affordable housing. She noted that very poor families were settling in places with affordable housing despite a lack of jobs because they were not active in the workforce. Unlike the families in Fitchen's study, Mexican immigrants to agricultural communities are very active in the labor force. However, because the location of their work varies from job to job, housing affordability might be more salient than job proximity for settlement decisions. There is a lack of quality affordable housing for agricultural workers in most agricultural communities (Alarcon 1996; Krissman 1995). Immigrants’ migration decisions are more sensitive to earnings opportunities and cost of living than are native workers. In the Midwest, it was found that immigrants were more likely to leave weak labor markets, and less likely to live in areas with higher housing rents (Huang and Orazem 1996). Furthermore, rural areas are especially attractive to immigrants with families, since they are perceived as a safer environment for raising children than places that immigrants can afford in metropolitan areas (Amato 1996; Huffman and Mirankowski 1996). Worries about crime and assimilation of children into the “underclass” have even resulted in reverse (urban to rural) migration (Palerm 1991). MA Hu: individuals and deman Workers, at 1991: Tick: human capi b356, or to 1 in etimings between lllI Capital (fig Futihermorl more high]; more high!) are 1653 able Diff “growth, ( 41 Hypothesis 1.5: Places that experienced larger gains in housing availability and affordability, and those that had more affordable and vacant units in 1980, experienced more foreign-born population growth. This brought larger gains in the percentage of their population that is Latino. Lower Housing + Growth in v 'Growth in the. ~ Costs and Great er Fo reign-Born + ' Percentage of the ‘ Housing Availability Population '——~ Population that is ' ~ ~ _La_tlno_ — ’ Figure 13. Hypothesis 1.5 Human Capital Theory Human Capital Theory explains earnings and employment as a function of individuals’ efforts, abilities, and personal investments, in accordance with labor supply and demand. Workers with weaker skills or less education are assumed to be less valuable workers, and so are poorly rewarded in the labor market (Snipp, et al. 1993; Summers 1991; Tickamyer, et al. 1993). At the community level, places with lower overall levels of human capital are less able to attract industrial investment, to deve10p their own industrial base, or to plan for their future economic growth. Many studies have noted that differences in earnings and poverty levels between nonmetropolitan and metropolitan areas, and between inner city and suburban areas, are accompanied by large differences in human capital (e.g., RSS Task Force 1994; Brown and Warner 1991; Snipp, et a1. 1993). Furthermore, decline in both central-city and rural areas is often characterized as a loss of more highly educated residents, or residents with broader labor market experience. As more highly-skilled working-age pe0ple move out of a community, the remaining residents are less able to sustain community organizations and services (Luloff 1990; James 1990). Differences in human capital can also be used to account for the growth, or absence of growth, of ethnic enclave economies. Scholars have questioned why some minority communiti “enclaves' Manning ( economy: and 3) arm capital (kn: and ethnic human cap business en to plan for human capi Hl'poth educate. [hall pla [\ Ewan ide \ Thee explanations within 30cm] Status by FCC 42 communities have been able to develop dynamic economies, while most minority “enclaves” (or segregated communities) do not (e.g., Snipp, et al. 1993). Portes and Manning (1986) describe three prerequisites for the development of an ethnic enclave economy: 1) a large number of immigrants with business experience; 2) sources of capital; and 3) available sources of low-wage labor. Of these, the first is the most crucial. Human capital (knowledge of business skills) is necessary to take advantage of labor availability and ethnic solidarity to create an economically vibrant community. Therefore, from the human capital perspective, lack of human capital in a place means less productivity, less business experience (and so less entrepreneurial activity), and less experienced leadership to plan for future economic growth. However, the relationship between prior levels of human capital and community development has not been longitudinally tested in colonias. Hypothesis 2.7: Places with higher levels of human capital (i.e., places with more educated residents) in 1980 experienced more growth in economic health and wealth than places with lower levels of human capital. rowt in + Comm unity Socio- Education Levels of Economic Health Residents, 1980 4- Growth in J - Comm unity Wealth Figure 14. Hypothesis 2.7 Social Capital Theory Theories on Social Capital “bridge the gap” between cultural and structural explanations of inequality by showing that capital can be embedded in an intangible form within social relations. These relations can be seen as helping to maintain core-peripheral status by recognizing “insiders” and “outsiders” to one’s own group (e.g., through citizenship one posses capital pos Economic through thl Immigrant It i patterns in from hlexr uere the rr to the Unit 0“ .lObS ant satisfactior Krissman pOpulation between [h mlgrant W( HOWCVeL . dCClSlons a exPlaining aVililable d growth, Q e'g-r total ensenbrenn. 43 citizenship/residence status and connections to capital). The volume of social capital that one possesses is dependent on the size of one’s social networks, and on the amount of the capital possessed by each of the people to whom one is connected (Bourdieu 1986). Economic advantage is gained through trust (i.e., expectations and obligations), and through the provision of information (Coleman 1988).” Immigration Networks It has been well established that social networks are integral to understanding patterns in international migration (e.g., Portes and Bach 1985). In a study of immigration from Mexico to the United States, Massey and Espinosa (1996) found that social networks were the most important predictor of both migration and permanent settlement from Mexico to the United States. Networks ease the costs of migration through access to information on jobs and housing and financial assistance, and they bring emotional and financial satisfaction by reuniting people with friends and family members. (Alarcon 1996; Krissman 1995, Massey and Espinosa 1996). From this perspective, the growth of Latino population in agricultural communities could be seen as resulting from growing networks between the United States and Mexico. This perspective explains the continual supply of migrant workers, despite the decreasing availability of good-paying, stable jobs. However, while social networks have been found to be important for explaining migration decisions among individuals, at the level of places the importance of social networks for explaining changing ethnic composition has not been explored. The quantitative data available does not allow for examination of the influence of social networks on population growth. Qualitative analysis will be used to explore this factor. 15 e.g., rotating credit associations (Coleman 1988). and informal and “character” loans (Portes and Sensenbrenner 1993). Hypo comm born] popull through be among cor This may j govemmen horizontal I Study Of fur how Open c 311d having spedilc inn clilnate ofe (Pones and “Onomic a Pittmoled a ThOmas am 44 Hypothesis 1.6: Places in which residents had stronger social networks with communities in Mexico and Central America experienced larger gains in foreign- bom population. This brought relatively larger growth in the percentage of their population that is Latino. .— . Q I ‘ - ~ . . . . Growth In the Immlgratlon + Growth tn F orelgn-Bom + ’ Percentage of ‘. NGtWOFKS POPU'al'O” ~Populat ion that is Latiflo ' Q Q - - - ‘ r Figure 15. Hypothesis 1.6 Communigz Social Capital At the community level, social capital is presumed to enhance economic growth through better trust, communication, new forms of organization and shared resources among community members and outside sources (Fukuyama 1995; O’Brien, et al. 1991). This may include vertical networks -- those with regional, state, and federal levels of government and organizations, lateral networks -— those with other communities, and horizontal networks -- those that exist among actors within the community itself. In their study of rural places, O’Brien, et al. (1991) found that community viability was affected by how open community leaders were to working together and accepting others as leaders, and having larger horizontal and vertical social networks. Solidarity and trust found in specific immigrant communities (horizontal social capital) have been suggested to permit a climate of entrepreneurial deve10pment not visible in communities without social capital (Portes and Sensenbrenner 1993). Moreover, social trust and cooperation between economic actors (i.e., government, business, community groups) is currently being promoted as the formula for successful urban economic development (e. g., Magnet 1989; Thomas and Lontz 1991). ll enhance g econometr greater co obtained b rel'enue di 1995i If I that comm relatit'el} g social capi Wealth isn transforme members). groups wit horizontal ETOUps {Op elites. who economic i maintain (h Ith dismbullOr lend ‘0 tesi b€nefit ffor Wither 19g TlCltamyer1 c0"liilllnity 45 There is also evidence that positive social relationships within conununities may enhance mam of incomes and wealth, as well as quantity. Evidence from an econometric study of business firms suggests that increased levels of social capital (i.e., greater c00peration and trust among business associates) increase overall total revenue obtained by the firms, and also increase the likelihood that firms will adopt more equitable revenue distribution plans with each other (i.e., act less selfishly) (Robison and Hanson 1995). If these findings are extrapolated to organizations within communities, they suggest that communities with relatively broader and stronger horizontal networks will experience relatively greater and more equally-distributed levels of economic development. When social capital does not exist among various groups within a community, an equalizing of wealth is not likely to occur. Warren (1978) describes the modern community as transformed from being integrated horizontally (through local networks among community members), to integrated vertically (linked to groups outside the community, but not to other groups within the community). As a result of the dominance of vertical links over horizontal links, he claims that the local community has become an arena for special-interest groups to pursue their own goals, rather than an arena where groups work together. Local elites, who are more likely to have outside ties (i.e., vertical linkages), pursue their own economic interests in the name of development, and block outside development efforts to maintain their power in the community. It has also been shown that where community relations are based on the uneven distribution of power (e.g., systems of race, class, and gender), those with greater power tend to resist changes that might alter the system. As a result, groups without power rarely benefit from community development efforts (Bokemeier and Gar kOViCh 1993'. Brown and Warner 1991; Dill and Williams 1992; Saenz and Thomas 1991 ;-Snipp, et a1. 1993; Tickamyer, et al. 1993). Poor residents are often not even perceived as part of the community (Fitchen 1991). If no social capital exists between the economically privileged and under economic Se whites oft their need lntili 199E fractured c through re oun self i: expected t. greater si g be tested it source of e 46 and underprivileged community members, development efforts tend to produce greater economic inequality. Several case studies of California communities show evidence that established whites often do not recognize immigrants as part of their community and do not recognize their needs in community development efforts (e. g., Palerm 1991; Runsten, Kissam, and Intili 1995). Ethnic and class divisions between local elites and immigrants have resulted in fractured communities, within which the elite has tried to develop the local economy not through residents’ demands for social equity, but through real estate speculation, and their own self interest (Krissman 1995 ; Runsten, Kissam, and Intili 1995). Therefore, it is expected that places with better relationships between community members will show greater signs of economic health than will places with poor relationships. While this cannot be tested with the quantitative data available, it does suggest that ethnic conflict might be a source of economic disadvantage in communities experiencing changing ethnicity. Hypothesis 2.8: Places with larger vertical, lateral, and horizontal networks showed relatively more economic growth and deve10pment than places with less extensive networks. Growth in Community Socio- Economic Health + Growth in Comm unity Wealth Figure 16. Hypothesis 2.8 Horizontal Social Vertical, Lateral, and Capital 1: conseque demands especiall) settlemen communi communi mmmm cmigratio blamed or decline is h it part of four rural bflWeen Vi [he While l divided int directly [e5 true, one Vt Cmammn - . vv. . l’ .. . _ « I , wmw u. . , . g . . . ‘ _ .. - _ ,. ' . 0%-,“ . ~,anwur—nflm- . -.... o-u .. ._ ._< 47 Social Conflict Unlike other forms of capital, social capital can have negative economic consequences as well as positive effects (see Portes and Sensenbrenner 1993). If greater demands are placed on group members to support newcomers, some may leave the group, especially if social ties are weak with the new members. In the case of a community, the settlement of low-income newcomers can increase the financial demands on established community members. If established residents do not accept the newcomers as part of the cormnunity, these increased demands can lead to resentment and exodus from the community. In fact, fear of incorporating newcomers into one’s social network can lead to emigration by itself. “White flight” from urban areas, for example, has been consistently blamed on whites’ fear of integration with Blacks, and their fear that prOperty values will decline with greater numbers of minority residents (Fox 1985; James 1990). It has been shown that established whites often do not recognize Latino immigrants as part of their community (e.g., Palerm 1991; Runsten, Kissam, and Intili 1995). Three of four rural Latino communities profiled by Palerm (1991) showed increased ethnic conflict between whites and Latinos as the Latino population increased in size. In one community, the white population seemed to leave as the Latino population moved in. Two others divided into distinct ethnic neighborhoods. While quantitative data is not available to directly test the hypothesis that ethnic conflict led to white emigration, if this hypothesis is true, one would expect non-Latinos to have left those communities with larger concentrations of Latinos. Qualitative analyses can also explore this possibility. Hypt expel incre. their (the? Popula Latino l g economic It differs l lliorld C it ‘0 CXplain qUantity a region, an l3 llOl ecol improvem exPerienei ecorlOmic “Oi to ShOI Places is n Prefer the . infolTllEllio 48 Hypothesis 1.7: Places with larger percentages of Latinos and immigrants in 1980 experienced less growth, and more loss, in their non-Latino population due to increasing ethnic conflict. This brought relatively larger gains in the percentage of their population that is Latino. f Percentage of the N -H . , ’ Growthin " ‘ as WSW - - assesses; - 9 Conflict Population \that ispLatino , ' Growth . _ .. Born, 1980 Figure 17. Hypothesis 1.7 Central Place Theory Central Place Theory conceives the development of places as a function of their economic importance to the surrounding region, and their proximity to other central places. It differs from World City Hypothesis in its emphasis on geography rather than active corporate planning to explain inequality of places. According to Central Place theory,vplaces offer a greater quantity and variety of goods and services if they are 1) central to a larger complementary region, and 2) serve an area that is distant enough from a place of a greater order so that it is not economically feasible to travel to the larger place (Christaller 1966). With improvements in transportation and communication, many smaller places in rural areas are experiencing declining numbers of businesses and services, as pe0ple travel further for economic activities (Warren 1978). Small towns are increasingly used as places to reside, not to shOp or socialize (Barkley and Rogers 1986). The concentrated capital of bigger places is more attractive to stores and service providers, as well as to consumers who prefer the variety of goods available in larger places. However, improvements in information technology are also making remote areas more attractive for business investment (Flora, et al. 1992). Therefore, while some businesses and services may be consolid; not be as h difficult I some of l cheaper i nearest Cl in rural C life l gooc "Cost of 1 less \‘iabl populatio such 35 5e has not be Hypor in non the W] . . . v , ‘I. a . ~~ V . . '3’ '._..‘ ,4... L. ___~_- ’.,.._'_H- -I-.-0 _‘_. _. h- _, , _ , .. g 49 consolidating, decreasing the quality of life in smaller communities, rural employment may not be as strongly affected. In rural California, small towns might be declining because it is increasingly difficult to remain economically viable, due to competition from larger places. A study of some of the same California communities found that prices were higher, but housing was cheaper in smaller places. Product availability increased the further a place was from the nearest central city, and with the size of the place (Rochin 1990). Therefore, smaller places in rural California may be losing non-immigrant residents because of decreasing quality of life (goods and service provision) and business viability. However, as mentioned under “Cost of Living Effects,” immigrants from Mexico/Central American might be attracted to less viable places because of the increased housing affordability accompanying loss of population. While size of place has been documented to influence quality of life variables such as service availability (Rochin 1990), its relevance in explaining migration decisions has not been explored. Hypothesis 1.8: Places that were larger in 1980 experienced relatively larger gains in non-immigrant population than smaller places and, therefore, smaller growth in the percentage of their population that is Latino. Growth in Percentage arger Population 4. Non-Latino - . mm ‘ and Geographic Population Growth Of the fiomfiggjty tha: ' Size, 1980 ‘ ~ . ~--- Figure 18. Hypothesis 1.8 At the same time, larger places, and those serving a larger geographical area, should be more economically viable. Hurt geog late Geog pOpulatic more ch i] The amm encouragl 1995). A loss of yo Children 3 metropoli nOIl'latin Significam the ethnic 50 Hypothesis 2.9: Places that were relatively larger in terms of population and geography in 1980, experienced larger gains in measures of economic well—being. Growth in Community Socio—Econ om it: Health Larger Population and Geographic Size, 1980 _ Growth tn Community Wealth Figure 19. Hypothesis 2.9 Demographic Effects Family Structure It is possible that growth in Latino population, as well as loss of non-Latino population, are partially due to changing family structure. On average, Latino families have more children than non-Latino families (Allensworth and Rochin 1995; Castillo 1991). The amnesty provisions of the Immigration Reform and Control Act in 1986 have encouraged family reunification, further increasing family size (Massey and Espinosa 1995). At the same time, non-Latino white families may be experiencing the traditional loss of young people that is seen in rural communities, an outmigration that occurs as children seek jobs in other places(Fitchen 1991). Nationally,fertility rates among non— metropolitan women are declining (Johnson 1993) and might be contributing to a loss of non-Latino population in rural communities. It is unknown whether there has been any significant change in family size in colonias, and whether this has substantially impacted the ethnic concentration of places. Deer Hsr Age Sml l also be a People p Common adults to the strong greater p are puttin SChool re edllcatior 51 Hypothesis 1.9: Increasing Latino family size and decreasing non-Latino family size brought increasing Latino population and decreasing non-Latino white population. This brought growth in the percentage of the population that is Latino. — i G h Q ‘ ' Growth in Percentage‘ ' ofthe Population that ‘_ IS atrno /‘ ’ Q l ‘ Foriegn-Bom and Latino Population Growth Increasing Latino + Family 8 ize Decreasin Non- . - - . Non- Latino ”Spag'fzjam'w Population Growth ~ . _ _ _ Figure 20. Hypothesis 1.9 Age Structure The larger poverty rates associated with immigration and Latino concentration could also be a result of the larger families of immigrants and non-immigrant Latinos (more people per family living on low incomes). Per capita poverty rates are based on all community members, including children, and children in rural America are more likely than adults to be poor (RSS Task Force on Rural Poverty 1994). Therefore, it is possible that the strong correlations between community ethnic composition and poverty are due to the greater percentages of children in places with more Latinos. Belief that immigrant children are putting financial stress onto communities through greater use of public assistance and school resources prompted the passage of Proposition 187, which denies medical and educational services to immigrants and their children. HYP P0PL unde Foreig lml 90F .—- Final \fo Question ll in rural C l'.S..b0n relative in (four sepa Communil included a COmpletelj CO“Central hlPOIhese 52 Hypothesis 2.10: Places that experienced relatively more immigration and Latino population growth experienced larger growth in the percentage of their population under age 18, which led to lower levels of community socio-economic health. Growth in Community Socio-Economic Health % of Population Foreign-Born and non- Under Age 18 immigrant Latino population growth Figure 21. Hypothesis 2.10 Final Models Question 1: Ethnic Transformation What are the factors leading to uneven ethnic transformation? Ethnic transformation in rural California can be attributed to three sources: foreign-born, non-Latino white, and U.S.-bom Latino population growth and loss. Analyses are proposed to determine the relative importance of each of these, and the factors that influenced each of these to change (four separate equations). In the model that predicts growth in the percentage of the community that is Latino, the percentage of the community that was Latino in 1980 is included as a predictor, along with a quadratic term, because places that were almost completely Latino in 1980 could not experience as much growth in Latino population concentration (i.e., there is a ceiling of 100%). Figure 22 and Table 3 summarize these hypotheses. i Percc ' (line; (i f _ 53 Foreign-Born , ------ .‘ Population Growth _ ‘ x ’ Growth 1n the - U.S.-Bom Latino 0 .' Percentage of Predictors from Population Growth N‘. the Population .'I Hypotheses 1.1 - 1.8 J that is Latino (linear and quadratic terms) Non-Latino 0/ ...... v’ [Percent Latino, 1980\ Population Growth J —/ Figure 22. Model for Prediction of Changing Ethnic Composition F— Mpg Agricul Wage C hme Income Housing Cost. 1980 lmmigrz Size of 1 Latin 1980 POpulati Size, Growth 1 Size Growm j Famil m , 1980 A.Eificult Men :NOI lest: Used as inlen 54 Table 3. Hypotheses Predicting Ethnic Transformation Foreign- Bom Non-Latino Latino Hypothesis Number Independent Variables] Population Population Population and Section in which it Growth Growth Growth is Discussed _ Agricultural Restructuring2 + - NR 1-1 & 23 Restructuring Wage Growth NR + + 1.3: Restructuring Job Growth + + + 1.3: Restructuring Income and Wages, 1980 _ + NR 1.4: Internal Core/Per. Housing Availability and + NR + 1.5: Cost of Living Cost, 1980 and change 1980 — 90 Immigration Networks3 + NR NR 1.6: Social Capital Size of Foreign-Bom or NA _ NR 1.7: Social Capital Latino Community, 1980 4 Population and Geographic NR + + 1.8: Central Place Size, 1980 Growth in Latino Family + NR + 1.9: Demographic Size Growth in Non-Latino NR 4. NR 19: Demographic Family Size NR = no relationship hypothesized; NA = not applicable. All variables are measured from 1980 to 1990, unless otherwise noted. 'Agricultural census data is available in off-year, five-year increments: 1982, 1987, etc. Measurements are taken from 1982 - 1987. . . 3Not tested quantitatively, examined through qualitative intervrews. . . 4Used as a substitute for ethnic conflict, examined more thoroughly through qualitative interviews. job and of city ft in a con 7 man Agricultl lob and ' Foreign. Latino P. Non-Lari InCome 2 Hilman ( S0Cliil NI Fountain 70 Childr lAll val-i2 (”least 2Hlpothe Hlpolhe 4NOI teste 55 Question 2: Economic Growth and Development What are the factors leading to uneven economic development? Changes in measures of community socio-economic well-being are hypothesized to result from immigration, Latino and non-Latino population growth and loss, agricultural restructuring, job and wage growth, changes in the age structure of the community, and the consolidation of city functions. While they were presented separately, all hypotheses are tested together in a complete model. Table 4 summarizes these hypotheses. Table 4. Hypothesized Predictors of Community Wealth and DeveIOpment C_om_muaitx Socio- Hypothesis Number and Comqu Economic Theory from which Independent Variables1 M M M Agricultural Restructuring2 + - 2-1 & 23 Restructuring Job and Wage Growth2 + + 2-1 & 23 Restructuring Foreign-Born Population Growth _ _ 2. 3: Ethnic Segmentation Latino Population Growth - 2.4: Ethnic Segmentation Non-Latino Population Growth 2.5: Ethnic Segmentation Income and Wages, 1980 2.6: Internal Core/Periphery Human Capital, 1980 Social Networks4 Population and Geographic Size 2.7: Human Capital 2.8: Social Capital 2.9: Central Place _ 2.10: Demographic 77g+++ ++. +++ ++ % Children in Community3 1All variables are measured longitudinally, from 1980 to 1990, except restructuring (measured as the change from 1982 to 1987), and city size (measured at the 1980 level). NR = no relationship hypothesized 2Hypothesized to interact with changes in foreign-born and non-Latino population 3Hypothesized to be caused by changes in foreign-born and Latino population. 4Not tested quantitatively, examined through qualitative interviews. Dill 1 LS. Ce are done incorpor concentr ll'S. BL POpulalh area. anc‘ Not all p the Sam I Patterns 1 U5. Cen fimls ant l6 0" aver: lllCluded in ”The (tens Used rEther WPUlation 0‘78 not in. experiencq CHAPTER 3. METHODS Quantitative Analysis Data on all variables except those on employment are taken from the 1980 and 1990 US. Census of POpulation and Housing STF3 files for the state of California. Analyses are done at the level of places. “Places" include all incorporated places and non- incorporated census designated places. Census designated places are densely settled concentrations of population that are identifiable by name, but are not legally incorporated (US. Bureau of the Census 1993). Places are included in these analyses if they had a population between 1,000 and 20,000 in 1990, were completely outside of an urbanized area, and were not a military base. This yields a total of 362 communities in California. Not all places from the 1990 STF3A files are included in 1980 STF3A files. This reduces the sample size to 288.16 The counties and places under study are listed in Appendix A. Data on employment are taken at the county level from the County Business Patterns Data of the Standard Statistical Establishment List for 1980 and 1990, and the US. Census of Agriculture for 1982 and 1987.17 Employment is measured by survey of firms and farms rather than people. Counties are used as proxies for labor market areas ‘5 On average, places for which no data is available in 1980 are smaller and less Latino than the places included in this study. 17The census of agriculture is taken every five years, including 1982, 1987, and 1992. The 1987 data are used rather than the 1992 data so that only agricultural changes that occurred at the same time as the population change being measured are included. While this excludes half of the time period under study, it does not include any time that is not under study. This is especially crucial as California agriculture experienced a catastrophic freeze in 1990, subsequent to the collection of pOpulation and housing data. 56 becaus units m develot prograr Slgmfic places f [0 help Variable can be c inditidu commur ( 1990. in Pfircent I Pficenl 1 Would b 57 because of the restrictions imposed by the design of the data sets. 13 However, county units may be conceptually at least as appropriate as labor market areas in this case since development planning, emergency and protective service provision, and entitlement programs are managed by county government. Models are tested through ordinary least squares direct-entry regression equations. Significance levels are not directly relevant to these analyses as the entire population of places fitting the criteria for inclusion are analyzed. However, significance levels are used to help determine which variables are of most importance in explaining the outcome variables. ‘9 Variables All analysis is done at the level of communities. No individual or group outcomes can be discerned from these analyses because it is not possible to know which specific individuals lived in each community in both 1980 and 1990. Each variable represents a community or a county characteristic. Changing community ethnic composition is defined as the increase, from 1980 to 1990, in the percentage of the population that categorizes themselves as Hispanic. If 50 percent of the residents of a community reported themselves as Hispanic in 1980, and 75 percent reported themselves Hispanic in 1990, the value of this variable for this community would be 25. Latino, non-Latino, and foreign-born population growth20 are each measured as the percentage increase in population from 1980 to 1990.21 If the number of Latino residents ‘8 Labor market areas are available through the PUMS data rather then the STF data. However, PUMS data does not offer statistics at the level of individual places and cannot be matched with STF data. 19 While Beta coefficients indicate which independent variables are the strongest predictors, the significance levels are based on both the strength of the relationship (the beta), and the standard error of the SIOpe, indicating which relationships are both strong and consistent. 20 The STF files produced by the census do not separate foreign-born residents by ethnicity. Therefore, this group cannot be separated into Latinos and non-Latinos, and Latinos cannot be separated into U.S.- and foreign-born. 21Non-Latino population M is used in place of non-Latino population Log to minimize confusion, as Latino and immigrant pOpulation change is discussed in terms of growth instead of loss. of a cor 350% g 500 for populat growth them populat had a -5 variable pOpulaI root fur foreign- growth Rather I calculat 1980. ( POVCrty 1990. ( Who re; educatic over 3g: \ 77 .. Trans Percentag Lam108: each Van} FOTClgn t 23 c'g', “ numbers, 58 of a community increased from 1000 to 1500 between 1980 and 1990, that community had a 50% growth in Latino population (Latino population growth = 50). If a community had 500 foreign-born residents in 1980, and 750 foreign-born residents in 1990, foreign-born population growth for that community would be 50 percent (foreign born population growth = 50). Because some communities lost population, they have negative values for the population growth variables. If a community experienced a drop in non-Latino white population, from 1000 non-Latino residents in 1980 to 500 non-Latino residents in 1990 had a -50% population growth (non-Latino population growth = -50). These three variables are positively skewed because a few communities experienced tremendous population growth from 1980 to 1990. Therefore, each was transformed through a square root function, reducing the skew.22 Furthermore, 14 cases had negligible numbers of foreign-born and/or Latino residents in 1980 (less than 20 people), and all experienced growth in these populations, so that the percentage change numbers are extremely hi gh.23 Rather than delete these cases, the growth in foreign bom/Latino pOpulation variables are calculated assuming a minimum of 20 foreign born and Latino residents in all places in 1980. Correlations among population growth variables are presented in Appendix B. Community development and wealth variables are measured as follows: Growth in poverty is measured as the growth in the percentage of people in poverty from 1980 to 1990. Growth in unemployment is measured as the growth in the percentage of people who report themselves as currently unemployed from 1980 to 1990.24 Growth in education is measured as: 1) the increase from 1980 to 1990 in the percentage of residents over age 25 with a high school education and 2) the percentage of residents over age 25 22 Transformed percentage growth of foreign born = SQRT(% growth of foreign born +101) ; Transformed percentage growth of Latinos = SQRT(% growth of Latinos +77) ; Transformed percentage growth of Non- Latinos = SQRT(% growth of non-Latinos +69). (The constants were added so that the minimum value of each variable was greater than zero prior to transformation.) The initial and transformed skews were: Foreign born growth (2.4, .8); Latino growth (4.1, 1.6), Non-Latino growth (2.9, 1.1). 23 e.g., With only 6 Latino residents in 1980 an increase of only 20 residents, although small in absolute numbers, would be an increase of over 300%. with a . percap housch skewet for an ( hypoth develot econon develo] on fat measur them. a Wealth .74). U; measur ofec0n income ITilllsfol graduat degree ‘ 0fresid fan a CroItbacl _.—_.._ ” -'-_'.._'- LL’.‘ -n! .5, 59 with a 4wyear college education. Growth in income is measured as the percentage change in per capita income. Growth in wealth is measured as the percentage change in per capita household interest, dividend, or rental income. Growth in per capita wealth was negatively skewed, and so was transformed through a cubic function prior to analysis.25 Factor analysis was used to combine the community deve10pment/wealth variables for an overall measure of economic health. Contrary to what was expected from the hypotheses (i.e., that wealth and income would not cluster with other community development variables), the two factors that emerged did not represent wealth and economic health, but separated the high school education measure from the other development measures. Therefore, the analysis was performed again, allowing for only one factor consisting of all development variables. Although the high school education measure did not originally cluster with the other variables, it is correlated with each of them, and does not decrease the reliability of the scale.26 The factor matrix for the scale is: Wealth--transformed (.61), Income (.84), College (.67), High school (.47), Poverty (- .74), Unemployment (—.69). This factor explains 46 percent of the variance in the five measures. Several variables measure the economic well-being of places in 1980 for prediction of economic development. Community wealth in 1980 is measured as the per capita income from interest, dividends or rents. This variable was positively skewed and so was transformed through a log function prior to analysis.27 The percentage of high school graduates in 1980 is measured as the percentage of residents over age 25 with a high school degree in 1980. The percentage of college graduates in 1980 is measured as the percentage of residents over age 25 with a college degree in 1980. 24 This measure is not ideal for farmworker communities as unemployment varies considerably throughout the year. However, it is the only measure of unemployment available in the 1990 data. 25 Transformed % Change in Wealth = (Percent Change in Wealth)3. 6 If an additive scale was developed with standardized scores on the six measures, it would have a Cronbach’s alpha of .76. In wages grout] counu nthe tonln anpk) labOL oncha payrol nfldza These renruc concet Ownen agncul 60 County employment variables include overall growth in employment, growth in wages, mean wages in 1980, and growth in the amount of hired farm labor. Employment growth is measured as the percentage growth in the total number of employees in the county from 1980 to 1989 (calculated through survey of firms). Wage growth is measured as the percentage increase in the earnings per worker (the total annual payroll divided by total number of employees) from 1980 to 1989. Growth in the amount of agricultural employment is measured as the percentage growth in the annual payroll to hired agricultural labor. It was positively skewed and so transformed through a square root function.28 Measures of agricultural restructuring (measured at the level of counties) are based on changes (1982 - 1987) in: 1) the percentage of farms with hired labor; 2) the annual payroll for hired farm labor; 3) the average size of farms; 4) the market value of products sold; and 5) the percentage of farms that are operated by an owner who lives on the farm. These measures were chosen as indicators of current trends that have been noted in the restructuring of agriculture including increasing separation of labor and management, concentration of farming into smaller numbers of larger farms, and transference of ownership to non-farm entities.29 Two scales emerged from factor analysis of the agricultural restructuring variables. One represents areas that are moving to more industrial type farms, the other represents areas that are moving to high-profit, labor-intensive crops. Factor loadings for the first measure are: percentage growth in farms with hired labor (- .19), percentage growth in wages towards hired labor (.46), percentage growth in average farm size (.84), percentage growth in crop values (.16), percentage growth in farms operated by owner (-.64). Those for the second measure were: percentage growth in farms with hired labor (.82), percentage growth in wages towards hired labor (-. 12), percentage growth in average farm size (-.01), percentage growth in crop values (.68), 27 Transformed Wealth 1980 = Log10(wealth in 1980+85). Initial and transformed skews were 3.2, and .1, respectively. 28 Transformed growth in agricultural payroll == Square root (growth in agricultural payroll). Initial and transformed skews were 4.5, and 1.2, respectively. pcrcer variab Appet popula These percen data at are chi family .88) to units in C0mm 1980 u] alahab Square exPens meaSUtt and me more [h 61 percentage growth in farms operated by owner (-.29). The first agricultural restructuring variable was negatively skewed, and was transformed through a square function.3O Correlations among county employment and agricultural variables are presented in Appendix C. The percentage of the pOpulation that was Latino in 1980 and the percentage of the population that was foreign born in 1980 were both hypothesized to influence migration. These variables are very highly correlated (r = .93) so only the variable representing percent Latino in 1980 is included in the analyses. Growth in family size among Latinos and non-Latinos cannot be computed with the data available. Therefore, growth in the percentage of Latino and non-Latino residents who are children (i.e., the number of children per adult) are used as proxies of growth in overall family size. Housing availability is measured through an additive scale (Cronbach’s alpha = .88) consisting of: 1) the percentage increase (1980 to 1990) in the number of housing units in the community; 2) the percentage increase in the number of bedrooms in the community; and 3) the number of new units built from 1980 - 1990, as a percentage of 1980 units. The percentage of units vacant in 1980 is also included as a measure of availability. This variable showed a positive skew and so was transformed through a square root function prior to analysis.31 Housing costs in 1980 is measured as the mean of: 1) median of owner housing expenses and 2) median rent (Cronbach’s alpha = .74). Growth in housing costs is measured as the mean of the change from 1980 to 1990 in median owner housing expenses and median rent (1990 Cronbach’s alpha = .78) Owner housing costs are, on average, more than rental costs. Therefore, the costs of living in places with larger house-to- 29 See Labao (1990) for a detailed description of these trends. 3O Transformed Ag. Restructuring-1 = (Ag. Restructuring-1 + 6)2. Initial and transformed skews were -2.7, and .45, respectively. ‘ transformed vacant: square root (vacant). apann more t demar larger teogrz transit popule per M and 4) \‘ariabl interac Appen 32 In 0rd c("Ilbini c0Relate 33 IIansh 62 apartment ratios are slightly exaggerated with these measures. However, given that it is more difficult for poorer pe0ple to obtain non-rental housing (due to down payment demands), this figure reflects the greater financial burdens for people to live in places with larger house-to-apartment ratios.32 Size of place in 1980 is measured through the population size in 1980, and the geographic size in square kilometers. Geographic size was positively skewed so it was transformed through a log function prior to analysis.33 Interaction terms were constructed by multiplying percentage growth in non-Latino population and percentage growth in immigrant population with: 1) percentage growth in per worker wages; 2) percentage growth in number of jobs; 3) agricultural restructuring- 1; and 4) agricultural restructuring-2. Prior to construction of interaction terms each of these variables was mean-corrected to reduce multicollinearity between main-effect and interaction terms. Descriptive statistics of all variables (original and transformed) are reported in Appendix D. Table 5 displays operational definitions of all variables. 32 In order to account for the varying costs of differently-sized apartments, originally a scale was produced combining costs of 0, 1, 2, and 3+ bedroom apartments. However, this scale was found to be so highly ggrrelated with mean rent (r = .98) that it seemed more reasonable to use the single measure. transformed area = log10(area). Ai Outta Varia. Media l'arial § lndepe EIOge l'arial // ._..— ~ ——~—.w 63 Table 5. Operational Definitions of Variables Outcome Ethnic Growth in the pr0portion of the population that considers Variables Transformation themselves Hispanic from 1980 - 1990. (Growth in the % (e.g., 50% -> 75% = 25). Latino residents) Community Combination of Growth in: Unemployment, Poverty, Development Education Levels, Income, and Wealth: *Unemployment 1980 - 90 growth in the percentage of residents who are currently unemployed *Poverty 1980 - 90 growth in the percentage of residents who are under the poverty line *Education 1980 - 90 growth in the % of residents, ages 25 and over, with: l) a high school degree; 2) a college degree *Income 1980-90 growth in per capita income *Income from Wealth 1980-90 glowth in income from interest, dividends, rents Mediating Latino POpulation Percentage growth in population from 1980 - 9O Variables Growth (e.g., 1000 ->. 1500 = 50%) N on-Latino Percentage growth in population from 1980 - 90 Population Growth (e.g., 1000 -> 1500 = 50%) F oreign-Born Percentage growth in population from 1980 - 90 Population Growth (eg, 1000 -> 1500 = 50%) Independent Agricultural Scale constructed from survey of farms in the percentage Exogenous Restructuring - 1 change (1980 - 1990, county level) in: Variables More industrial- *annual payroll for hired labor (+) type farming Agricultural Restructuring - 2 More high-profit, labor-intensive cr0ps Growth in Hired Labor on Farms Job Growth Wages, 1980 Wage Growth _ Wealth, 1980 Human Capital, 1980 ___Percent Latino, 1980 Size of Place, 1980 Housing Availability “Housing Affordability Family size, Latino and Non-Latino Percentage of children in the community *average size of farms (+) *number of farms operated by owner living on the farm (-) Scale constructed from survey of farms in the percentage changes (1980 - 1990. county level) in: *percentage of farms with hired labor (+) *value of crops produced (+) Percentage growth in the annual county payroll for hired agricultural labor, 1982- 1987, from survey of farms The % growth 1n the total number of employees in the county from 1980-90, measured through survey of firms 1980 total payroll of firms in the county / number of workers The percentage increase in wages, 1980-90 Per Capita income from interest, dividends, or rent, 1980 1) Percentage of adults over 25 with a college degree 2) Percentage of adults over 25 with a high school degree Percentage of residents classifying selves as Spanish- -origin 1) Total number of residents, 1980 2) Area in square kilometers Scale composed of: 1) % growth in the number of housing units, 1980-90 2) % growth in the number of bedrooms, 1980-90 3) # of units built between 1980-90 as a % of 1980 units *Mean of: median owner housing expenses and mean rent. *1980-90 change in the measure described above. Growth in the percentage of Latino and non-Latino residents under age 18 from 1980-90. Growth in the percentage of residents under age 18 from 1980-90. nnpkr cohec chest reghr tenns sune) intoh localr tchrus Hone thedoi Theor when Whhe €0Ven Condu CCOno in one half n. Pohhc 64 Qualitative Analysis Qualitative data were collected in March and April of 1996, focusing on four rural communities in Califomia’s San Joaquin Valley. Places were selected because of their geographical proximity to each other, the size of their Latino pOpulation relative to their Anglo population (ranging from small to large), and their reliance on agricultural employment. The first stage of community selection began nine months prior to data collection. Through examination of quantitative data, ten places were selected as possible cites for study. They were chosen because of their agricultural base, their location in a region that was going through dramatic ethnic transformation, and their heterogeneity in terms of ethnic and economic composition. These places were visited in a preliminary survey, from which the four final communities were selected. This preliminary survey involved observation of the communities, and informal discussions with city officials and local residents. The four selected communities were similar in terms of their agricultural base (citrus), their pOpulation size (between 5000 and 10,000), and their geographical location. However, they each differed from each other in specific ways. One community was predominantly Non-Latino white, with only a small percentage of foreign-born residents. The others were predominantly Latino. One place was an unincorporated area, while the others were incorporated cities. One city had a very active pro-Hispanic city government, while the other places did not. The remaining community had a mixed Anglo-Hispanic city government, despite an overwhelmingly Hispanic population base. Interviews were also conducted with residents of neighboring communities that were found to be socially and economically tied to the communities under study. While conducting the interviews I lived in one of those neighboring communities, Reedley, a community that is ethnically about half non—Latino white and half Latino, but in which non-Hispanic whites hold most political and economic power. comp andth techni contat eomn ouner terer 01‘ \l‘ht unden eeono: useda econor flhgrat ZtAre Caphal Ofresh factors Ways f COmm] Enghd [€8an the in“ OnlhOE ana 65 A total of 54 formal interviews and focus groups (85 total respondents) were completed with government officials, school principals, business owners, farm workers, and other local residents in each place. Respondents were selected through a variety of techniques. City officials, school principals, and chamber of commerce members were contacted through their place of employment. To obtain representation of specific types of community members (e. g., farmworkers, young adults, Filipinos, foreign-born business owners), some respondents were recommended by other respondents or by people who were not formally interviewed. Others were approached directly without prior knowledge of who they were beyond their visible characteristics. The questionnaire used in the study was designed to provide an in-depth understanding of the forces underlying population growth and decline, and the economic well-bein g of the communities under study. The following questions were used as a basis for the interview: 1) How important are jobs, the community economic base, ethnic conflict, social capital, and discrimination in determining migration patterns, namely, peoples' willingness to stay where they are or to move? 2) Are newcomers and established residents forming new forms of positive "social capital"? 3) What are peoples' perceptions of immigrants, the changing composition of residents, and the quality of life in their community? To what degree are these factors important in the residents' feelings towards their community? 4) In what ways have the employment structure, the human, social and financial capital in the community, and ethnic composition affected local community conditions? The English version of the interview schedule is presented in Appendix E. While all respondents were asked all of the interview questions, they were also allowed to lead the interview into areas not broached in the questionnaire, and to focus the discussion on those issues that they felt were most important in their community. Observational and second-hand data were also collected. Observational data was gathered through extensive, detailed recording of descriptions of people and [laces when well a rnean: were. thetn m Corbi categt They VVooC inforr altar Exete Cutler dlSpla 34 See ObServ 66 places encountered while living in the region of study. Rich, detailed notes were taken to reduce bias and unfounded conclusions about the events being recorded, as well as to record information which might have meaning at a later time even if not meaningful in the moment of observation.34 Newspapers, pamphlets, and flyers were also collected from each of the communities under study. Content relevant to the trends under study were analyzed with the observational and interview data. Data Analysis Data analysis was done through the Grounded Theory approach (Strauss and Corbin 1990). Theory is produced by coding the data, discovering major themes and categories, re-conceptualizin g the data, and regrouping it according to those categories that arose through its examination. Conclusions are drawn from patterns in responses which are confirmed through re-examination of the qualitative data in conjunction with objective evidence. A list of codes used for qualitative data analysis is displayed in Appendix F. Places of Study Each of the communities chosen for in—depth study are described briefly below. They include Cutler and Orosi (referred to as Cutler/Orosi), Exeter, Orange Cove, and Woodlake. Each of the places are described below. To protect the confidentiality of informants, names of places are not included within quotes and descriptions of trends within the Results and Methods chapters. Instead, places that are mostly Anglo, such as Exeter and Reedley, are identified as Anglo towns. Places that are mostly Latino, such as Cutler/Orosi, Orange Cove, and Woodlake, are identified as Mexican towns. Figure 23 displays the geographical location of the places of study within the state of California. _¥ 34 See Becker (1970) and Schatzman and Strauss (1973) for a description of the methology for recording observational notes. ' gag—-4. 11.11.: _, .__'.1..,.., Comm: Amen. MCXlC: teIntor an Ang f" FRESNOCflNTY “x 1' }\ auw'A r "r / "V4? esno 03th l ‘th—l. o 051/ am a - l s. were" 'Woodtake J . , 1. .Exeter i l ' ‘ s.- W 1‘ - .1 l 9% IULAFEOOLNTY s Sateratciseg l ‘ 8313.1“ Figure 23. Map of Communities This study focuses on the current period of ethnic transformation in these communities-from predominantly Anglo to predominantly Mexican and Mexican- American. However, this current stage of changing ethnicity can also be thought of as a re- Mexicanization of California. The transformation of these communities from Mexican territory, to Anglo agricultural communities, to Latino towns is highlighted in this quote by an Anglo resident of one of Orosi: TheAng have. T This 111114 \‘ou've l 'Wrath Ill settled it people it res. Wh the Men mmflw' as the st saw all t Iotsofc Littler/M Altl not viewed one come [01m Whllt depression residents. a incorporate (Cutler-Or. Predomina Cu ll lS Still re POpulatior agllClllturt different c COmmttnit Although ltSidem8 . has 1683 F 68 The Anglos and the Hispanics get along very well here. They always have. There was a time when the Anglo was the larger group here. This little town is called O-ro-sah or O-ro-see, depending on how long you ’ve been here. O-ro-sah is because in the 30s, in the Grapes of Wrath time, when people came here from the Midwest, the people that settled this little town were from Missour—ah. And now recently, the people who come in are Hispanic and they call it Oro-see, 0ro sz’, gold yes. Where that comes from is this used to be Hispanic territory prior to the Mexican war, and they came over the Sierra Nevadas and looked into the valley and saw Califomia poppies that are bright gold. And so as the story goes, these two conquistadors looked down the valley and saw all the poppies and said “gold, yes. ” So the name’s gone through lots of changes. Cutler/Orosi Although Cutler and Orosi are considered separate "places" by the census, they are not viewed as separate places by most community residents. Therefore, they are studied as one community for qualitative analysis. In the past, Cutler was considered the "Mexican" town, while Orosi was more "Oakie" (populated with Anglo people who came during the depression of the 19303). Distinctions between the two placesare now made only by older residents, as Orosi is currently over 70 percent Latino. Neither Cutler nor Orosi are incorporated, but at the time of this study they were considering incorporation as one place (Cutler-Orosi). Cutler-Orosi is managed by the county government, which is predominantly Anglo. Cutler has experienced substantial population growth over the last decade, although it is still relatively small in size. Almost all residents are Latino, and 41 percent of the population was born outside the United States. Over half of the work force is employed in agriculture, with the remainder of the work force somewhat evenly distributed between different occupational categories. Cutler ranks in the bottom one percent of rural California communities in per capita income. Thirty-eight percent of the population is in poverty. Although Cutler has more agricultural employment and a greater percentage of Latino residents than Orange cove (with similar age and foreign-born population distributions) it has less poverty. On large incre agricultura degrees. pl college de. percentile. theworkf support. 0 Orosi. lu “larger“C Orosi and 1991. M( run loose Church. } Very old. Manyofl With an 61 Variety 01 Dinuba n 69 Orosi was one of the settings in the book The Grapes of Wrath. It has experienced large increases in its pOpulation size and composition over the last decade, but no change in agricultural employment. Only 36 percent of the adult residents of Orosi have high school degrees, placing it at the seventh percentile in the state. Six percent of Orosi residents have college degrees, placing Orosi slightly higher in terms of college graduates, at the 23rd percentile. Although 31 percent of the work force is involved in agriculture, almost half of the work force is involved in managerial/professional, technical/sales/administrative support, or operator/laborer occupations. There is little service industry employment in Orosi. Just east of Orosi are two communities which are also considered part of the “larger” Cutler/Orosi area: East Orosi and Yettem. Both are economically poorer than Orosi and are mostly occupied by farrnworkers. East Orosi did not have sewers until 1991. Mobil homes are allowed in East Orosi, and some of the houses have chickens that run loose on the yards. Yettem was settled by Armenians and still has a large Armenian church. However, the residents of Yettem are now almost all Latino, and the housing is very old. Economically, Cutler/Orosi are strongly tied to Dinuba which is located nearby. Many of the community leaders of Cutler/Orosi actually live in Dinuba. Dinuba is larger with an ethnically-mixed pOpulation. It has more employment, and a greater number and variety of businesses and chain stores such as K-Mart. Cutler-Orosi is covered by the local Dinuba newspaper. Fuller Populatior Latino Po Fanning, l Persons in High schc Orosi Populatior Latino Po Farming. l Persons ir High schc '1 N.) m ‘Y I Er millionair housing d overlooki Communi- Latino cir high scho I:fflmersv A' ”31 0f the moving K are integr has not e) Communi mayor is j 70 Table 6. Description of Cutler and Orosi CWer 1990 Change since i980 Population .................................... 4,450 +1 301 Latino Population ......................... 95% +6% Farming, Forestry, and Fishing ...... 55% +14% Persons in poverty ....................... 38% +13% High school graduates ................... 29% —1.4% Orosi 1990 Change since 1980 Population .................................... 5,486 +1410 Latino Population ........................ 72% +11% Farming, Forestry, and Fishing ...... 38% 0% Persons in poverty ...................... 32% +10% High school graduates ................. 36% +1% Exeter Exeter is seen as a very prosperous community. At one time it had more millionaires per capita than any other small city in the country. Several higher-priced housing developments are being built in the city. Just outside of the city limits, on a hill overlooking the community, is a very wealthy neighborhood. Exeter serves as a bedroom community for professionals who work in Visalia. It is socially tied to a neighboring Latino city, Farmersville, through a shared educational system. Farmersville children go to high school in Exeter. At the time of this study, however, there were discussions about Farmersville opening its own high school. At one time, Exeter had a barrio where the farmworkers lived, separated from the rest of the town by railroad tracks. The ban‘io no longer exists. Farmworkers started moving to more rural places that were less expensive. The Latinos who live in Exeter now are integrated with the Anglos, so that neighborhoods are not defined ethnically. Exeter has not experienced the white emigration that has occurred in most neighboring communities. The city staff and city council are predominantly Anglo. However, the mayor is Latino, as are one staff member and one council member. Er nearby 10' populatio: percentag of minors working 2 residents meSpani Latinos. norms for \ Populatio Latino P( Fanning, Persons i mm T This grm prOpOmC leSldents Percent C is in POW lll tel-ms pelCCm ( 7 l Exeter has much less agricultural employment and fewer Latino residents than the nearby towns of Lindsay, Farmersville, and Woodlake, although it is similar in overall population size. It also has less poverty and more high school and college graduates. The percentage of elderly population (18%) is greater than the state average, and the percentage of minors is also larger than average. Therefore, less of the population of Exeter is of working age (18 - 65) than is typical of rural California communities. The percent of residents who are not foreign-born (92%) is also greater than the state average. Therefore, the Spanish-origin population in Exeter consists mainly of second— and later-generation Latinos. The occupational distribution of Exeter's work force is very similar to the state norms for rural communities. Table 7. Description of Exeter 1990 Change since 1980 Population .................................... 7276 +1670 Latino Population ........................ 26% +10% Farming, Forestry, and Fishing ..... 11% +3% Persons in poverty ...................... 22% +7% High school graduates ................. 65% +10% Orange Cove The population of Orange Cove grew by over 255 percent between 1980 and 1990. This growth was accompanied by a large increase in the poverty rate, and increases in the pr0portion of the work force involved in agriculture, and in the proportion of Latino residents. Almost 40 percent of the residents of Orange Cove are under age 18, almost 50 percent of the work force is involved in agriculture, and almost 50 percent of the population is in poverty. Orange Cove is in the bottom one percent of all rural California communities in terms of per capita income, and in the top one percent in terms of poverty. Forty-four percent of the population was born outside of the United States, with 24 percent of the populatic the land : C advocate greatly li and city perspecti They are and mou a large L Coye. C eoHeger State. \ POpulatir Latino F I:éll’tttlng. Persons base of 1 ONE of ll HOSpirai and city 72 population immigrating since 1980. While Orange Cove is a low—income town, much of the land around the city is owned by very wealthy individuals. Orange Cove is regionally known for its very active mayor. He is a strong advocate of Latino and farmworker issues, and his efforts have caused him to be both greatly liked and greatly disliked by people with different political views. The city council and city staff are entirely Hispanic, and most hold similar pro-farmworker, pro—Latino perspectives. Orange Cove is socially tied to Reedley, a predominantly-Anglo community. They are part of the same school district, which also includes unincorporated agricultural and mountain areas. Reedley is known as a German Mennonite community, but it also has a large Latino population. Reedley is considered much more prosperous than Orange Cove. Orange Cove children go to high school in Reedley. Reedley also has a community college that many Orange Cove children attend after high school, before going on to Fresno State. Table 8. Description of Orange Cove 1990 Change since 1980 Population .................................... 5,604 +4450 Latino Population ......................... 86% +14% Farming, Forestry, and Fishing ..... 47% +14% Persons in poverty ...................... 47% +26% High school graduates ................. 26% -1% Woodlake Woodlake is slightly more isolated than the other communities. It is located at the base of the foothills of Sequoia National Park, slightly down the road from Exeter. It is one of the stops on the rodeo circuit, and its motto is “A Town with True Western Hospitality.” Most of the stores downtown have a wooden Western motif. The city staff and city council are ethnically mixed with approximately equal numbers Anglos and lannos ofiniah. 'V educanor mepopu schoolgr ennloyn' occupant nenspapr Ix Populanc Lanno Pr Finning, Persons 1 l ....-u -_." "_‘“"k __.__-._.§A.& ~ 73 Latinos. Latino and farmworker issues are not of primary concern among city staff and officials, as they are in Orange Cove. Woodlake has remained fairly constant over the last decade in terms of poverty and education levels, with proportionally few high school graduates and almost 30 percent of the population in poverty. However, Woodlake has slightly less poverty and more high school graduates than nearby Farmersville, despite more dependence on agricultural employment and a greater proportion of Latino residents. Farming is the predominant occupation of the work force. Woodlake and Exeter are covered by the same local newspaper. There also seem to be substantial social ties between Latinos in the two cities. Table 9. Description of Woodlake 1990 Change since 1980— Population .................................... 5,668 +1335 Latino Population ........................ 75 % +10% Farming, Forestry, and Fishing ..... 36% +3% Persons in poverty ....................... 28% +1% High school graduates .................. 39% +1% ( changing relative i in the etl Transfor factors b “Foreigr common are leadi “COmInt bom P0}: are km)“ conclude model. E "On-Whit the (leper Pf€dicter Clallly 0] CHAPTER 4. QUANTITATIVE RESULTS Question one asks why the ethnic composition of rural California communities is changing, and what factors are leading to uneven ethnic transformation. Therefore, the relative importance of growth and loss of non-Latino, Latino, and foreign-born population in the ethnic transformation of places are explored in the first part of this chapter, “Ethnic Transformation.” Subsequently, growth of each ethnic group is predicted with those factors believed to lead to uneven ethnic transformation in the second part of this chapter “Foreign-Born, Latino, and Non-Latino Population Growth.” Question two asks why community socio—economic well-being is so strongly defined by ethnicity, and what factors are leading to unequal economic development. Therefore, the third section of this chapter, “Community Development,” examines the influence of non-Latino, Latino, and foreign- bom population growth on community economic development, c0ntrolling for factors that are known, or hypothesized, to affect community economic well-being. This chapter concludes with a model that summarizes the results of these equations into one empirical model. Each of the models was also tested with a control for the percentage of non-Latino, non-white residents. While this variable added slightly more explained variance in some of the dependent variables, it did not alter the relationships between any of the predictor and predicted variables. Therefore, it is not included in the models described in this section for clarity of description. Models with this control variable are presented in Appendix G. 74 l growth ll composil represent composi' l the left-h meet the displayer minimize Thereforr pOpulatic Untransfr each rypf in non-L; in Latino nOII-Latii Note that ethnic tra dngee ol “On-Lam affectlng growth a, 16, [Esp 75 Ethnic Transformation Table 10 displays a regression model predicting 1990 ethnic composition with growth in foreign-born, Latino, and non-Latino population, controlling for 1980 ethnic composition. By controlling 1980 ethnic composition, the pOpulation change variables represent the degree to which each type of population affected changes in the ethnic composition from 1980 to 1990. The right-hand side of the table uses untransformed independent variables, while the left-hand side displays a model in which the independent variables were transformed to meet the assumptions of regression analysis (i.e., normal distributions). Both are displayed to show that the results are similar. The model with the transformed variables minimizes the impact of extreme cases, and is more representative of general conditions. Therefore, the left-hand model is used for discussion of the relative impact of each population group. Transformed variables are also used in each of the following models. Untransformed coefficients are more easily interpreted to discern the actual mean impact of each type of pOpulation growth on ethnic composition. For example, a one percent growth in non-Latino population from 1980 to 1990 resulted, on average, in a .07 percent decline in Latino concentration (B = -.07). From the opposite perspective, a 10 percent decline in non-Latino population was associated with a growth of .7 percent in Latino concentration. Note that if non-Latino population growth was unimportant in determining community ethnic transformation from 1980 to 1990 (e. g., if most communities experienced the same degree of non-Latino population loss), this figure would have been much smaller. Instead, non-Latino population growth was just as important as Latino population growth in affecting ethnic transformation from 1980 to 1990. The left-hand side of the model shows that Latino and non-Latino population growth accounts for changing ethnic composition at about equal rates (Betas = .15 and -.16, respectively). Growth in foreign-born population is a much weaker predictor (Beta = .05). Places that experienced more growth in non-Latinos experienced less growth in the percentag Latinos e is true of consists r calculate percentag coefficiet the total ' Predict Percenta POP Percenta P0P Percenra P0P Percent ] Percent l (Constar Squa 76 percentage of population that is Latino, and places that experienced more loss of non- Latinos experienced more growth in the percent of population that is Latino. The opposite is true of Latino and foreign-born population growth. While Latino pOpulation growth consists partially of foreign-born population growth, the total influence of both can not be calculated by simply adding the two beta values. Excluding the variable representing percentage growth in foreign-born population increases the Latino population growth coefficient slightly, to a Beta of .17, while having little impact on the other coefficients or the total variance explained. Table 10. Regression Models of 1990 Ethnic Composition Model with Model with N ormally- Untransformed Distributed Variables (Transformed) Variables Predictor B Beta Sig _l_3_ Beta S_ig Percentage growth in foreign-born .356 .052 .000 .015 .070 .000 population, 1980 - 1990 _ Percentage growth in Latino .910 .150 .000 ' - .021 .1 19 .000 population, 1980 - 1990 Percentage growth in non-Latino -1.82 -. 157 .000 -.070 -. 133 .000 population, 1980 - 1990 Percent Latino, 1980 1.22 1.10 .000 1.24 1.11 .000 Percent Latino - squared -.005 -.184 .000 -.005 -. 176 .000 (Constant) - 29.9 .000 27.4 .000 R-Square . 99 . 98 Adjusted R-Square . 9 8 . 9 8 Foreign-Born, Latino and Non-Latino Population Growth If non-Latino, Latino, and foreign—bom population growth each contributed to the ethnic transformation of places from 1980 to 1990, the question arises as to why communities experienced varying degrees of such population growth. Tables 11 through 13 show the results of regression equations predicting the growth of foreign-born, Latino, and non? hypothes dmmmr table. M In each c that expl: Growth i * F significar growth it causatior construct itself that l PTOfit, lal Growth 1 were not amount c SClllCmer 35 In each . OWCVer‘ l Cases had 2 RemOVal c C SlZe or extreme C3 OVBI [he d6 Sim Clly a Lalinos du lone City r predlCling PPPUlation leSlduals ll 77 and non-Latino pOpulation from 1980 - 1990.35 In each table the complete model, with all hypothesized predictors, is presented on the left. A reduced model with only predictors significant at p<.05 is displayed on the right. These predictors are highlighted within each table. Multicollinearity was low in the reduced models. All VIF values were at or under 2. In each case the variance explained (Adjusted R2) by the reduced models is equivalent to that explained by the complete models, and the SIOpes of the predictors remain similar. Growth in Foreign-Born Population Few of the hypothesized causes of in foreign-born population growth are significant, and little variance is explained (Adjusted R2 = .15). The strongest predictor is growth in housing units (beta = .290). This strong relationship may exist because of dual causation -- housing attracts population growth and population growth stimulates housing construction. However, there is strong qualitative evidence to suggest that it is housing itself that attracts population. Two other predictors were also significant. Places that experienced a shift to high- profit, labor—intensive agriculture showed larger growth in foreign-born population. Growth in industrial-type farming and growth in the annual county payroll to hired labor were not associated with growth in foreign—born residents. Therefore, it was not the amount of agricultural employment, but the type of employment, that affected immigrant settlement. 35 In each of these equations there were several cases with extreme residuals (i.e., standardized residual >l4l). However, no case exerted extreme influence, as all Cook’s Distance scores were below 1. Each of these cases had a unique characteristic that caused it to be less well-represented by the regression equation. Removal of these cases causes the variance explained to rise slightly, but it does not substantially change the size or significance of the model coefficients. Therefore, all cases were retained for all analyses. These extreme cases are as follows: King’s Beach experienced extremely high growth in foreign-born population over the decade, resulting in an extreme residual for the model predicting foreign-born population growth. Sun City and Frazier Park had very few Latino residents in 1980, but experienced enormous growth in Latinos during the decade, resulting in extreme residuals for the model predicting Latino pOpulation growth. lone City has a large proportion of non-Latino non-whites, and so is not well represented by the model predicting non-Latino population growth. Mecca and Parlier experienced extreme losses in non-Latino pOpulation over the decade, resulting in almost no non-Latino residents by 1990, and so have extreme residuals in the model predicting non-Latino population gTOWth' populati contrary increase inunigra establisl resident: Therefor seen as 2 ( growth 1 to foreig 1980 M lmntigra Show grf The thin between foreign.t bOrn pOp larger pe foreigni in 1980. 78 The final variable that showed a significant relationship with growth in foreign-born population was the growth in the percentage of Latinos who are children. However, contrary to the proposed relationship, places in which the ratio of children to adults increased showed smaller growth of foreign-born population. This suggests that immigrants who are settling in rural communities are more likely to be adults than are established residents. Despite an increase in family reunification with IRCA, foreign—bom residents in rural California are more likely to be adults than are native residents. Therefore, this variable (growth in the percentage of Latinos who are children) should be seen as an outcome rather than a predictor variable. Other employment conditions (growth in jobs, wages, etc.) were not related to growth in foreign-born population. As expected, size of place in 1980 was also unrelated to foreign-born population growth. The percentage of foreign—bom/Latino residents in 1980 was also not associated with growth in immigration. Prior studies have shown that immigration is network-driven, so that places with larger foreign—bom populations should show greater growth in foreign born population. This does not contradict these studies. The third table in Appendix B shows that there is a very strong correlation (r = .59) between the percentage of the population that was Latino in 1980 and the growth of foreign—bom population in absolute numbers. However, the percentage M in foreign— bom population is independent of the initial size of the population. On average, places with larger percentages of foreign-born residents in 1980 showed similar percentage gains in foreign~bom population as did places that had smaller percentages of foreign—bum residents in 1980. Ta' Mia! Restrucr Restruco Growth Gmwm Growth : 1980 per Housing Growth Housing Vacancy Geograp Populati Growth i Percenta (Constar R-squa; Adj. R. Growth j l is explair 18 left Un. to be the gT0Wth. glOWIll ir Popularic dlSCUSSec growth it p0lllllzttic Other W01 79 Table 11. Regression Models of Foreign Born Population Growth (1980-1990) . , _ ' ; ' . Complete Mad?! ’ Reduced Model Predictor B Beta §_ig B Beta Big Restructuring 1 - more large scale .006 .016 .823 Restructuring 2 - intensification .576 .144 .016 .635 .159 .005 Growth in wages to hired labor .016 .010 .885 Growth in per worker wages .058 .183 .013 .022 .069 .212 Growth in employment -.022 -. 135 .065 1980 per worker wages .000 .023 .693 Housing costs, 1980 -.008 -.148 .058 Growth in housing costs -.019 -.040 .555 Housing growth * .046 .355 .000 .038 .290 .000 Vacancy rate, 1980 .247 .085 .187 Geographic area .026 .003 .968 Population, 1980 .000 . .058 .346 Growth in % children among Latinos -.042 -.168 .004 -.039 -.158 .005 Percentage Latino/Foreign-Born, 1980 -.007 -.045 .537 (Constant) 11.4 .002 10.9 .000 R-square '1 . ~ g .19 T. i .16 . Adi. R-Square , . ,. 15 f .15 Growth in Latino Population Table 12 displays equations predicting growth in Latino population. More variance is explained in Latino population growth than in foreign-born population growth, but much is left unexplained by this model (Adjusted R2 = .37). Two demographic variables prove to be the most important predictors. The strongest predictor is foreign-born population growth. Places that experienced more growth in foreign-born population experienced more growth in Latino population. Controlling for foreign-born population growth, Latino population growth was smaller in places that had larger percentages of Latinos in 1980. As discussed above, this does not mean that places with more Latinos in 1980 experienced less growth in absolute numbers of Latinos. However, the W growth in Latino population was smaller in places that had larger percentages of Latinos to begin with. In other words, Latino population grew at faster rates in places with that were ethnically less Latino (more Anglo) in 1980 than in places that were ethnically more Latino. in place profit. 1 higher I wealthi popular Mt Restruc Restruc Growth Gmwd Growth 1980 pt Housin Gmwm Housin Vacanc Geogra POpulat Growth Percent Growrh (Consta 'Squr am Unlike ' explalni 0ffl0n€ Were m. 80 As with foreign-born population growth, Latino population grew to a larger extent in places that experienced more growth in housing units and in areas that shifted to hi gh— profit, labor-intensive agriculture. Latino population growth could not be attributed to higher birth rates (more children), or to labor market changes. Places that were bigger or wealthier in 1980 were also normore likely to have experienced growth in Latino population. Table 12. Regression Models of Latino Population Growth (1980-1990) Complete Model Reduced Model Predictor B Beta fig B Beta Sig Restructuring l - more large scale ~.012 -.027 .650 Restructuring 2 - intensification .657 .146 .005 .684 .151 .003 Growth in wages to hired labor -.037 -.021 .731 Growth in per worker wages .014 .040 .526 Growth in employment .007 .034 .559 1980 per worker wages .000 .021 .675 Housing costs, 1980 —.009 -.152 .026 -.006 -. 109 .053 Growth in housing costs .001 .003 .963 Housing growth .050 .339 .000 .047 .318 .000 Vacancy rate, 1980 .266 .081 .145 Geographic area —.261 -.025 .681 Population, 1980 .000 .045 .396 ~ Growth in % children among Latinos .019 .068 .178 Percentage Latino/Foreign—Born, 1980 ~.052 -.282 .000 —.057 -.311 .000 Growth in foreign—bom population .409 .362 .000 .412 .860 .000 (Constant) , 9.33 .009 9.3 .000 R-square . 40 . 3 8 Adjusted R-square .37 .37 Growth in Non-Latino Population Table 13 displays regression equations predicting non-Latino population growth. Unlike Latino or foreign—born population growth, most of the variance in this measure was explained by the model (Adjusted R2 = .79). Housing growth was the strongest predictor of non—Latino population growth. However, unlike Latinos and immigrants, non-Latinos were more likely to move to places in which the cost of housing also rose. This is likely a reciproc At the s Howevr decisior income signific larger r: perspec Latino : unrelatr t’ariablr popular growth Ofchilc 81 reciprocal effect -- places with more demand for housing showed a rise in housing costs. At the same time, places that lost non-Latino population saw a decline in housing costs. However, qualitative interviews also suggested that white non-Latinos made settlement decisions based on housing availability, and were especially attracted to places with hi gher- income housing. Outside of housing variables, community ethnicity in 1980 was the only other significant predictor of non-Latino population growth. Non-Latino population grew at larger rates in places that were ethnically less Latino in 1980. From the opposite perspective, non-Latino population loss was greatest in places that were ethnically more Latino in 1980. Unlike Latino and foreign-born population growth, agricultural restructuring was unrelated to growth in non-Latino population. Furthermore, none of the industrial variables (wage growth, job growth) significantly predicted growth in non-Latino population. The 1980 population and geographic size of places were also unrelated to growth in non-Latino population, as was the variable representing growth in the percentage of children among non-Latinos. Eudit‘ Reuruc Restruc Growth Growth Growth 1980 pt Housin Gmwm Housin Vacanc Geogra Popular Gmwm Percent Growth (Constz lliSqtr m from 1' P€0ple lOb gro Table i eCOnor lll fore both pl enhanr 3 . 6 Rcsrr 82 Table 13. Regression Models of Non-Latino Population Growth (1980-1990) Complete Model Reduced Model Predictor B Beta fig B Beta S_ig Restructuring 1 - more large scale .000 .004 .908 Restructuring 2 - intensification .026 .01 1 .713 Growth in wages to hired labor .007 .008 .820 Growth in per worker wages .005 .027 .460 Growth in employment -.002 -.017 .648 1980 per worker wages —.000 —.008 .790 Housing costs, 1980 -.003 -.086 .031 -.002 -.081 .017 Growth in housing costs .022 .078 .022 .027 .095 .001 Housing growth .062 .796 .000 .062 .808 .000 Vacancy rate, 1980 .114 .066 .043 .115 .066 .027 Geographic area .135 .025 .487 Population, 1980 .000 .045 .153 Growth in % children among N—Ls .023 .052 .151 Percentage Latino/Foreign-Bom, 1980 -.027 —.282 .000 -.029 -.302 .000 Growth in foreign—bom population .01 1 .020 .541 (Constant) 6.40 .000 R-Square .80 .79 Adjusted R-Square . 7 8 . 7 9 Community Development Table 14 displays regression models predicting overall community development from 1980 to 1990.36 Community development is defined in terms of the attributes of people rather than places (i.e., income, poverty, wealth, and education levels, rather than job growth and city revenues). As with Tables 11 through 13, multicollinearity is low in Table 14. All VIF levels are below 2. As expected, places with higher wage and job growth showed significantly higher econorrric development. However, the effects of these variables were moderated by growth in foreign-born population. Places that showed growth in both employment and foreign— bom population experienced the highest degree of economic development. Immigration enhanced the positive impacts of job growth on economic development, while job growth 36 Residuals from the regression were normally distributed, without extreme or influential values. reduced places t benefic: the neg: econon wage g. less ecc erperie Places : educan the pen develol develol Childre: 83 reduced the negative effects of immigration. The opposite was true of wage growth. In places that experienced both immigration and wage growth, immigration reduced the beneficial effects of wage growth on economic development, while wage growth enhanced the negative effects of immigration. Foreign-bom and non-Latino population growth were each significant predictors of economic development, while Latino population growth was not. Controlling for job and wage growth, places that experienced more foreign-born population growth experienced less economic development. Places that experienced more growth in non-Latinos experienced more economic development. Human capital possession was the strongest predictor of economic development. Places in which larger percentages of the adult population had at least a high school education in 1980 showed much greater economic growth from 1980 to 1990. However, the percentage of adults with college degrees in 1980 was unrelated to economic development. Agricultural restructuring and 1980 wage levels were unrelated to community development, as were 1980 population and geographic size. Growth in the percentage of children in the community was also unrelated to development. Built Restrur Restrur Per Wt Empl0j Mean I Foreigi Latino Non-Ir 7c ngl adul ‘7: Coll 198t Geogra Popula Growtl com Interacr Lati: Interact Bon Interact Non Interact Fore Interact Non Interact Fore Interact Non- Interact Fore (Consta “(in m 84 Table 14. Regression Models of Conrrnunity Development (1980—1990) Complete Model Reduced Model Predictor B Beta S_ig B Beta S_ig Restructuring 1 - more large scale —.002 -.019 .662 Restructuring 2 — intensification -.040 -.039 .410 Per Worker Wage Growth .016 .197 .000 .015 .185 .000 Employment Growth .007 .168 .003 .006 .144 .005 Mean Wages, 1980 .000 -.024 .572 Foreign-Born Population Growth —.061 -.239 .000 -.070 —.273 .000 Latino Population Growth -.009 -.038 .476 Non-Latino Population Growth .114 .261 .000 .092 .212 .000 % High School Graduates among .024 .428 .000 .023 .412 .000 adults, 1980 % College Graduates among adults, -.005 -.037 .607 1980 Geographic Area -.020 -.009 .871 Population, 1980 .000 -.030 .503 Growth in the % children in the -.022 -.085 .081 community Interaction: Wage growth * Non- .003 .068 .249 Latino Growth Interaction: Wage growth * Foreign- -.004 -. 172 .002 -.004 —. 187 .001 Born Population Growth Interaction: Employment growth * —.001 -.062 .315 Non—Latino Population Growth Interaction: Employment growth * .002 .181 .002 .002 .185 .001 Foreign-bom population Growth Interaction: Ag. Restructuring-l * .003 .053 .261 N on-Latino Population Growth ' Interaction: Ag. Restructuring-1 * .002 .061 .166 Foreign—bom population Growth Interaction: Ag. Restructuring-2 * .016 .038 .469 Non—Latino Population Growth Interaction: Ag. Restructuring-2 * -.007 —.029 .545 Foreign-bom population Growth (Constant) —1.22 .017 —l.38 .000 R-Square .55 .53 Adjusted R-Square . 5 2 - 5 2 commu school \‘ariablt same d: growth predictr populat changir propon increas levels r the dec relatior ethnic l Negati' TCprese COmmt agricul Popula gTowrh betwee throng] 85 Regression models were also run predicting the various component measures of community development. These are displayed in Appendix H. Only the percentage of high school graduates (1980) was a significant predictor of all components. While the other variables only significantly predicted some of the components, the relationships were in the same direction as described above. Employment growth and immigration predicted income growth, while wage growth and immigration predicted poverty. Wage growth also predicted growth in the percentage of college graduates in the community. Non-Latino population growth predicted unemployment. Income and poverty were affected by changing proportions of children in the community. As children became a larger proportion of the pOpulation, mean per capita income decreased while poverty levels increased. Summary Model of Quantitative Results Figure 24 summarizes the quantitative results. For clarity, paths with significance levels over .01 are not included. The relationship of foreign-born population growth with the decline in the percentage of children in the community is not included, as this relationship is causally reversed. The path from 1980 ethnic compOSition to changing ethnic composition is not included since the 1980 level is a used as a control variable. Negative paths are indicated by dashed lines. Arrows originating from two variables represent interaction effects. The model highlights the different causes of changing ethnic composition and community development. While population growth and loss is affected by housing, agricultural restructuring, and ethnic composition, economic development is affected by population growth, job and wage growth, and human capital resources. Only population growth affects both ethnic composition and community deve10pment. The correlation between ethnic composition and economic deve10pment is not attributable to spurious paths through industrial or demographic variables. 1980 Lafino/ 8 _~ Groi Housr ‘ 86 r Employment Growth I Wage Growth \“ Agricultural Foreign-Bom _______ ‘3‘ lntensification Population Growth ~~~~~~~ x \ ~ 3.33% 4 Growth in ‘ ‘ ‘= Community Latino Population Percentage m 1980 Percent Growth mm ”WW Latino/Foreign- ' ,’ Born ,’ Non-Latino Growth in Population Growth Housing Costs 0 . . ——' positive path A: Adu[l)ts wrth l-ngOSchool _____ _, negative path egrees’ >—b interaction Figure 24. Empirical Model [roces fionti as des ofque ihaIUl thesei comm miEn; by the ofinfl as “M. thh Refere 0f the: Conve: Places ECOno - '..¢ wag.- .v“ . ' . ll“ CHAPTER 5. QUALITATIVE RESULTS Qualitative data analysis complements the quantitative tests by contextualizing the processes of ethnic transformation and economic development. Data for this analysis come from interviews, focus groups, and informal observation of the agricultural communities, as described in the Methods chapter. While interviews were structured along a standard set of questions (see Appendix E), respondents were allowed to lead the interview to topics that they felt were most important in describing their community. Relevant quotes from these interviews are included within the text to show residents’ perspectives on their community in their own words. Quotes from interviews done in Spanish are preceded by an English translation. Translations are not literal, but instead convey the meaning intended by the speaker. The names of specific places are not used within quotes to protect the confidentiality of informants. Instead, Cutler/Orosi, Orange Cove, and Woodlake are simply referred to as “Mexican towns.” Exeter and Reedley are referred to as “Anglo towns.” Places in which neither ethnic group is dominant are described as “mixed-ethnicity” communities. References to places as “Mexican” or “Anglo” towns does not imply that all of the residents of these places are Mexican-origin or Non-Hispanic white. The terms are used to easily convey to the reader the dominant ethnicity of the place. The ethnic composition of all places is, of course, mixed. This chapter is divided into three sections. The first, “Patterns in Ethnicity and Economics,” conveys geographic, economic, social, and political patterns within the communities under study. These patterns give insight into the horizontal and lateral social capital that exists in the communities under study. Quantitative analyses were unable to 87 expki devch nnwc Thns conur secho ofsuu which movir The h Winch byeir conun- conun' theset houses SlllTou- IOCah, ”Ponis the eth 88 explore the impact of social capital on community ethnic transformation and economic development. However, qualitative analysis reveals important effects of community social networks, and lack of networks, on both ethnic transformation and economic development. This section provides a basic description of the networks and the social gaps within these communities to serve as a base for describing the effects of social capital in the subsequent sections. Each of the following sections in this chapter focus on one of the two questions of study. The section entitled “Ethnic Transformation” explains the processes through which the ethnic composition of communities is shifting-why non-Latino whites are moving out of Latino communities, and how Latinos are reacting to those same conditions. The final section, “Ethnicity and Economic Development,” examines the processes through which ethnic transformation leads to reduced economic development. Patterns in Ethnicity and Economics Geographic Patterns in the Ethnic and Economic Composition of Places Geographically, places in rural California are becoming increasingly differentiated by ethnicity and economic status. Two ethnically- and economically—distinct types of communities exist: Mexican towns and Anglo/mixed places. These two types of communities often exist right next to each other, and yet they are very distinct. Around these towns is agricultural land, “ranch areas,” where people live on farms and in secluded houses. There are also remote groups of farmworker housing and Anglo settlements in the surrounding rural and mountain areas. Mexican towns are almost completely Latino. They are called “Mexican towns” by locals, and when you ask people to describe the community the first thing they remark upon is the fact that it is a Hispanic community. Most residents of Mexican towns view the ethnic composition as a positive aspect, noting that Latinos in other places have less voice in local government and more conflict and prejudice due to ethnic differences: Howe‘ econor that in agn'cul [( l ma cor chi ca. cor mil ba. es Pr0p0r 33 “nic places i0Wns, HlSpan See the ethnic l is ( Hit trite Ant 89 The Hispanic population is not as large [in Anglo town ], although it is quite significant. But yet, the Hispanic community [in Anglo town] hasn’t yet been able to assume its rights, assume a leadership position. And there are Hispanic community members who have gotten involved on the school board, on the council, but I think they tend to, even thought the Hispanic community has put them there, I think many times they tend to forget and not vote along those lines. When you sit on a board or council and you know all of your colleagues are for Proposition 187, it takes a strong individual to say ‘yeah you’re for it, I ’m against it’ (Male Latino Mexican town resident). However, residents of Mexican towns also note that their community is much poorer economically than other places. They attribute the economic status of their town to the fact that large numbers of residents are farmworkers, and to the reliance of the community on agriculture: [ ( This town) is characterized by Hispanic families, to start. We ’re the majority here in the community, of migrant Hispanic families, of course, and those that work here on the farms. Basically, the characteristic of this population of (this town) is low income. ] Se caractariza (esta comunidad) ma’s bien para familia hispana, para comenzar. Somos ma yorr’a aqui in la comunidad, de families hispanas migratorias, logico, y que aqui trabajan en el campo. Asi que basicamente, la caracten’stica de esta poblacio’n de (esta comunidad) es low income (female Latina resident). Anglo/mixed places are mostly non-Latino white, although. most have a substantial proportion of Latino residents. They are not called “Anglo towns,” but are often referred to as “nice places to live.” These places tend to be wealthier and are identified as wealthier places by their residents and by peOple in the surrounding areas. As with the Mexican towns, residents of Anglo places immediately identify their community as less Hispanic/more Anglo than neighboring places. Also, as in the Mexican towns, residents see the ethnicity of their community as a positive aspect. Some people take pride in their ethnic diversity compared to homogenous Mexican towns: There’s a mixture of culture in (the Anglo community) more than there is (in this Mexican town). Because (this Mexican town is) over 80% Hispanic, and as far as my son, my husband and I would like my son to interact with lots of difierent races -- Chinese to Black to Mexican, Anglo (Female Anglo town resident). There most 1 power small than a They . the C0 These areas. alid dt anti-g 37 fig. [OWnI 90 However, most residents consider the large proportion of non-Latino whites to be integral to the quality of life of their community. They feel that it is because their town has more Anglos that it is more prosperous than surrounding places: (This) is one of the few communities that hasn’t had a lot of whites, Anglos, moving out. Where you find large concentrations of minorities, historically, you ’11 find it’s economically not as good, and that influences your community. That doesn’t mean those people aren’t as concerned, they just don’t have the base. They’re just struggling for survival. And here, they’re not faced with that, so they’re thinking, how do we make it better? Whereas the poor person, hey, I’ve got to worry about survival (Anglo Male Anglo town resident ). Surrounding the cities and towns are farmland and scattered homes (ranches). There is a higher status associated With living in the ranch areas, compared to the towns, most likely because ranchers have traditionally held most of the political and economic power in these communities. Not all places called ranches are large farms, but might be small farms or country houses. People who live on ranches are more likely to be Anglo than are peOple who live in town. Some Mexican farmworkers live in the country as well. They either live on the ranches on which they work, or in older housing scattered around the countryside.37 There are also settlements of people in the mountains that surround the valley. These people are linked to the agricultural communities by school districts and shopping areas. Valley residents call peOple who live in these areas “mountain people” or “cowboys” and describe them as people who want to get away from the world, including those with anti-govemment sentiments. Mountain residents are more likely to be Anglo. 37 e.g., housing built for farmworkers in the 19403, older trailer parks in the country or on the edge of a town. _.. g... are hi mostl Chang has al such : plums areas emplt Entire inluflt 91 Economic Patterns in Mexican Towns We have year-round work. Oranges and veggies are more or less winter crops. Pruning orchards and cutting vines for grapes in the spring, then avocados, one crop after another. As far as industrial work , all are food processing plants-- the winery, orange juice processing, the burrito plant, lumber. All industry is tied to agriculture (Male, Latino Mexican town resident). All of the Mexican towns and Anglo/mixed communities in the San Joaquin valley are highly dependent upon agriculture. Traditionally, areas west of Interstate 99 have held mostly corporate farms while areas east of Interstate 99 held more family farms. This has changed slightly over the last few decades so that there is now a mix of smaller family farms and larger corporate farms on the east side, where this study was conducted. There has also been a shift from yearly row crops, such as tomatoes, to semi-permanent crops, such as oranges. Most of the farms in the area produce tree fruit -- oranges, lemons, plums, apricots, and olives. There are also fields of grapes and large dairy farms. In the areas under study citrus is the dominant crop, and most of the packing houses process oranges. The varieties of oranges and other crops allow for year-round work on farms. [ Ten years ago there were less people. Back then they would tell us “pick another box, ” and they would bring us all beers for refreshment. Now they say “go away. ” It’s very difi‘erent. The reason~is that in Mexico and in other parts, with such diflicult economic situations, many of us come here, and that’s making the situation difi‘icult (Male Latino Mexican town resident). Hace 10 afios, habr’a menos gente. Entonces, nos decr’an “pis ca otra caja, ” y trat’a todas cervezas para que se refrescara. Ahora dicen “ya, vete. ” Es bien diferente. Por Ia razo’n que en Mexico y en otras partes, con las situaciones economicas tan dificiles, nos venimos muchos para venir por aca’, y asi es poniendo la situacion difr’cil. Our unemployment is like 30 percent, so what we really need are jobs. Like for the last three days it’s rained. No one ’s worked (Female Latina Mexican town resident). While farmwork can be found throughout most of the year, it is not dependable employment. Nobody works while it rains. If there is a freeze, nobody works for the entire season, The same is true of packing house work, although it is more stable. On-job injuries are also common among farmworkers. While some farmworkers continue to work well i hazart harde increz comp the la incret for pa W of and m 92 well into old age, many become injured so they cannot work, either through accidents or hazardous working conditions. Furthermore, most workers complain that it is becoming harder to find steady work and that the amount of work has declined substantially due to increasing competition from increasing immigration. They also blame increasing competition for the stagnant wages for farm labor, noting that pay has not increased over the last several decades despite large increases in the cost of living. This, in turn, has increased poverty within farmworker communities: [ ( This town) has changed in terms of poverty. Because the things that people need to live have gone up in price, but the salary continues being the same for thirty years, when I arrived. This is a very notorious change in that many, many more families are more needy now than before. ] (Esta comunidad) Ha cambiado en pobreza, esto sf. Porque las cosas para subsistir la persona han augmentado de precio, pero el salario sigue siendo el mismo desde 30 afios, cuando yo Ilequé. Entonces, esto es un cambio muy notorio en que hay muchas, muchas ma’s families ma’s necesarias ahora que anteriormente (Female Latina Mexican town resident). Farrnwork is difficult, and it cannot supply a stable income because of its dependence on volatile factors such as weather and agricultural markets. Therefore, it is seen as undesirable by U.S.-born or raised residents. Second and later generation children rarely become farmworkers. They might, however, consider packing house work: Right now they 're working IZ-hour weekdays and 10 hours on Saturday [in the packing house]. When we close in the summer they ’11 be ready for a vacation. (What do they do for pay when closed?) Some will get unemployment, but many will go right into [picking] tree fruits. That season starts when we shut down. This summer we ’11 be closed for 3 months, but next year I can see us going for 10 months. If we ever get so we stay open 1 1 months, many will just go on unemployment and take a vacation for a month. After working so hard they'll be ready for a vacation (Male Anglo packing plant manager). Despite the seasonal nature of packing house jobs, and the low pay ($6 - $8/hour for packers, slightly less for graders and stackers, and more for forklift drivers) there is a lot of competition for these jobs. Workers receive medical benefits, and work is steadier and more desirable than work in the fields. However, there are few opportunities for advai COHU high work midd Oiiht they Was 93 advancement. There are low-skill jobs on the line for women, and low-skill jobs stacking and forklifting for men, and then there are high-skill management jobs (held by men). For workers to move beyond a line supervisor, they would have to acquire additional training in management. Jobs in packing houses are also increasingly being replaced through mechanization. While growth in packing house employment is desired by most communities to relieve unemployment, it is low-income employment that does not bring high income into the community. In field work there is also little room for advancement. However, some field workers go into labor contracting to earn more money. Labor contractors serve as middlemen between farmers and fieldworkers. They are often some of the richest members of the community. While all of the rural communities are dependent on agriculture, the Mexican towns host the majority of the farmworker population. Most of the residents of Mexican towns either work on farms throughout the region or in local fruit-packing houses. Farrnworkers also live in Anglo communities, but they comprise a much smaller percentage of the population: _ With Exeter, that tends to be where the farmers live. Woodlake is where the workers live. The quality of (Woodlake) has sufiered as a result (Male Anglo). Social Patterns: Divisions Among Community Residents Central California more so than elsewhere plays up ethnicity. T here ’s more separation and bitterness. It’s not just Hispanic diflerences. It ’5 sad (Anglo male Anglo town resident). Ethnicity plays a central part in descriptions of people and places in the valley. When people refer to Reedley, they refer to it as a German Mennonite community. When they talk of dairy farming, they refer to the Swedish, Dutch and Portuguese farmers. As I was interviewing I was surprised at the number of times people asked me what my last name halt confl mep (gang Cenh gnu; it is p netw< ch.’ differ Us. 94 name was, and what kind of name it is. Some people seemed to need this information to feel comfortable when interacting with me. Despite this emphasis on ethnicity, most people interviewed said that there is little conflict based on ethnicity or national origin in their community, outside of the schools and the political arena. All communities noted problems with teenage gangs called norten'os (gangs of children born in the US.) and sudeiios (gangs of children born in Mexico or Central America) who fight against each other. All places also have a history of minor or major political conflicts that have divided people along ethnic lines. But in general, these conflicts are seen as existing outside of everyday community life. Many people highlight the lack of ethnic conflict as one of the advantages of their community, especially compared to larger cities where racial/ethnic conflict is conspicuous: [The people of this town are friendly, cooperative. You can see this when there ’s a family in trouble. People from Michoacan, Mexicans from all the states get together, including the Mexican-Americans and one or another American (Anglo) that also helps. ] La gente de este pueblo es amistosa, es cooperativa. Esto mira cuando hay una familia en desgracia. Michoacanos, Mexicanos do todos estados se unen, incluyendo los Mexico-Americanos, y un o otro americano que tambie’n copera (female Latina Mexican town resident). While few people feel that there are bad relations between ethnic or nationality groups, most also say that there is little contact between them. In general, people claim that it is profession and economics, rather than ethnicity, that most influences their social networks. Business people interact with business people, farmworkers with farmworkers, etc. This leads to separate networks among ethnic and nationality groups because of differences in employment between Anglos and Latinos and between foreign-born and U.S.-bom residents.38 And while person-to-person ethnic relations may be good in 38 e.g., “It’s not ethnic. Status, or economic level that families are in -- economic classes of families don't get involved with others” (Male Latino resident of a mixed-ethnicity community). “Well, the CODfliCt between like the people that came from Mexico is the languagc- Al‘d then the economics. They’re hard working, struggling people. They don’t have time to socialize. Most of their time is involved in working and taking care of their families. 80 that’s the main reason we don’t have interaction between, I’d say levels of Hispanics, I’m not saying they’re higher or lower or whatever -- the Mexican Americans that were 95 general, both U.S.-born and foreign-born Latinos and Filipinos report feeling looked down upon by some middle-class and Anglo residents. It's a difficult adjustment going to (the High School in the Anglo town), a difi‘erent environment. Kids' whole personality changes. It ’s hard to get to know the other kids. They look down on you. You 've been working hard, picking or working in the packing houses since you were young, they haven 't. It's a different mentality (Female former Mexican town resident). The Hispanic people (in the Anglo town) have forgotten their roots. And the white people look down on you (Female Latina worker in a Mexican town). Furthermore, although most people say that there is little conflict between groups, three clear divisions among people exist in the minds of most residents. Through these divisions people categorize others and create their own identity. The first division is between recent immigrants and established residents. The second is between Latinos and Anglos. While these two divisions are not openly discussed among adults and are minimized in discussion of conflict, they are subtly implied in residents’ descriptions of their community. These divisions show up most clearly in conflicts among children and in the political arena.39 The third division between people is discussed more frequently and with more passion than the first two, and seems to be the source of the most conflict. However, this distinction is not clearly defined by any objective criteria and encompasses only foreign-born individuals. It is between immigrants who contribute to society versus those who take from it. Recent Immi rants and Established Residents [There are Mexicans, Salvadorans, Guatamalans, Texans. Many people have come. Many stay. ] Hay mexicanos, salvadorefios, guatama/er’ios, tejanos. Mucha iba. Mucha queda (Male Latino resident of a Mexican town). born here and are educated, well they’re so busy with their lives that they give more Of their time in terms of civil activities” (Male Latino resident of a Mexican town). 39 As discussed above. there are conflicts between gangs of children, based on country of origin. In the mixed/Anglo communities there are also conflicts between “cowboyS” (M810 children from the mountains) and Latinos. Politically, there are conflicts which tend to Split people along ethnic and national-origin lines, discussed below. they com disti of at Hort num betvt aliet Kris iron lingt Unit peot term famil} friend 96 Given that hired farrnwork is done almost exclusively by immigrants, it is clear that they are an important population in agricultural California. While some people in Anglo communities may see this group as being homogeneous, most people do not. Many distinctions can be made among them -- such as country of origin, state of origin, or year of arrival to the United States. Most recent immigrants are from Mexico (90%). However, people are increasingly coming from Central America (7%), and a sizable number of immigrants have come from Asia. People also recognize cultural differences between the different states of Mexico. The state or country from which people have come affects their social networks, and, therefore, their economic Opportunities (e.g., see Krissman 1995). However, there does not seem to be strong antagonism towards people from specific regions, other than complaints about certain cultural characteristics or linguistic differences.40 It is recognized that foreign-born residents who have been in the United States for more years have many advantages compared to recent immigrants. Some people also complain that recent immigrants are different from previous generations in terms of concern for their community and their dedication to work. While these differences among foreign-born residents are recognized and discussed, much stronger differentiation is made between recent immigrants and established residents than among [different groups of immigrants. Recent immigrants are perceived as a very different group from people born in the United States by all community members, including recent immigrants themselves. U.S.-bom residents have higher levels of education, higher incomes, and more stable positions in their communities than recent immigrants. Foreign-born residents are also viewed as less legitimate community members by established residents, regardless of legal status, especially by those without roots in E 40 e.g., “You have the people that come from Monterrey Mexico, they’re very hard working people, so that’s their main stride in life. Then you see the people that come from Michoacan, they’re very united, family unity, a lot of that. But very seldom do you see all of them come together Some of my best friends say ‘oooh, I hate Monterrey people because they’re so loud, and this and that.’ Well, now we have [CCU Mg Amt are r lWO ( 97 immigrant farrnwork (mostly Anglos). Political debates about the negative effects of immigration, and the rights of documented and undocumented immigrants, reinforce the recognized divisions between peOple based on national origin. Anglos and Other U.S.-Bom People Most of the U.S.-bom pOpulation (96%) is either Latino (mostly Mexican- American) or non-Hispanic white (Anglo), although there are also some Asian-Americans (mostly Filipino and Japanese). Anglos have traditionally held most of the political and economic power in the agricultural communities, and, as with recent immigrants, they are seen as a distinct group. Both U.S.-bom and foreign-born Latinos will frequently use phrases such as “We, the Hispanics,” to distinguish differences between Latinos and Anglos. Once again, most peOple attribute separate networks among Anglos and Latinos to economic differences between the groups, although cultural and political differences are also observed, as discussed later in this chapter: You have a Hispanic community who, most of them, are oblivious to individuals in the Anglo community, and vice-versa (Male Latino Mexican town resident). While economic differences may be of primary importance “in maintaining ethnic divisions, these economic differences have their roots in the historical legacy of discrimination against Mexicans in California. Most adult Mexican-Americans, especially those who are older, have stories of direct discrimination that they encountered while growing up. Many Latinos continue to feel discriminated against, and note large gaps in economic and political power between Latinos and Anglos. There are continual battles for greater Latino representation in political positions and social groups, and these battles reinforce the ethnic divisions between people. Because battles for Latino power are seen as contributing to ethnic tensions, they are not uniformly supported by all Latinos. The social divisions based on national origin # two of them in our family, and the day that (one of them) doesn’t show up, the party lacks something” hon bdar born arm tern poht 35 Wt thon gore cons ofth want recer peep Wehz rend. noiq sugg Paya 98 (foreign- versus U.S.-born) and ethnicity (Latino versus Anglo) leave U.S.—bom Latinos balancing between identification with U.S.-bom Anglos and identification with foreign- bom Mexicans. This social position is seen in a positive light by some, allowing access to a wider variety of social, political, and economic networks. However, it also causes personal distress, especially among people with the most diverse social ties.41 “DesemirLL” Versus “Undeserving ” Immigrants Finally, among both U.S.—bom Anglos and Latinos, regardless of their other political views, there is a universal resentment that some immigrants receive services such as welfare, unemployment and MediCal. Virtually all U.S.-born residents complain about those immigrants who take advantage of the system, who crowd the schools and sap government resources, and who incite crime, violence, and accidents with their consumption of alcohol and drugs. This stands in clear contrast to the near-universal praise of those immigrants who work harder than U.S.-bom people, take jobs that others don’t want, and sustain the agricultural economy. Both positive and negative stereotypes of recent immigrants are pervasive, and indicate a clear separation of newcomers as either people who contribute to society or take from it. Even among people who recognize that welfare abuse and crime are lower among foreign-born individuals than among native-bom residents, there is a resentment that any immigrants are receiving benefits for which they do not qualify, or committing crimes in the United States.42 Very few non-farmworkers suggested that hardworking farmworkers might need financial assistance due to the low pay and unstable nature of their work: (Female Latina resident of a Mexican town). ' 4‘ e.g., Such feelings come out in contradictory views or ambivalence on issues of immigration and ethnic power, in comments about unease at not speaking Spanish or having a greater knowledge about Mexico, or feeling uncomfortable as an ethnic minority or child of a farmworker in predominantly Anglo situations. 42 “Probably the majority was for (Proposition 187), about 80%. Because of the many crimes committed by undocumented persons, and we have many people in prison that are illegal. It costs $25,000 each person to put them in prison. (Is crime higher among undocumented immigrants?) Less crime is committed by undocumented people. They don’t want to take the risk of being caught. Their priority is to wor ” (Male Latino police officer). incc the) subs ther natit Amt Well 99 These Mexican people have ideas. They're all on welfare, all of them. . Someone needs to teach the Mexican people how to stop having babies. They have no means of earning income except to have another child and get more money. They get free medical services. The only people who have insurance are the white people. The other day I ran into a Mexican guy's car, and he just took ofi‘. Probably was illegal and was afraid. They have multiple social security cards and when someone asks them for one they just hand it to them. Where do they get them? But I love my [undocumented Mexican cleaning woman] (Anglo Female Anglo-town resident). In contrast, most farmworkers discussed the difficulties of living on the unstable income of field work and the need for such services for farmworker families. However, they also went out of their way to state that they would never use government services or subsidies. First generation immigrants are aware of the feelings of non-immigrants about them. They are careful to let others know that they are not part of that group which is taking anything from the government. Political Patterns While Anglos continue to be the most economically dominant residents in rural California, Latinos have become the political leaders of Mexican towns. Latinos also hold important political positions in Anglo/mixed places. Recent immigrants are less aware of the political structure and often feel disenfranchised from local government. At the same time, they are very aware of the effects of laws such as those promoting English-only in the schools, and those restricting education and health care, for themselves and their families. Political conflict sometimes arises around struggles for power based on ethnicity or national-origin. However, political divisions are not based entirely on ethnic differences. Among both Latinos and Anglos it is easy to find people with very conservative views as well as peOple with very liberal views: cont poll con: incc con: mi diift goal in inter Lati: like] pet); busi resic bilin neec‘ 100 Most Anglos would take a look and say that (that town) is a mono- cultural community now, 95 % Hispanic and they all think alike The political thinking is probably more diverse than it is anywhere else in Tulare county. You have the groups that are so far one way that it almost borders on anarchy. That the whole American political process is rotten to the core, discriminates, needs to be overthrown, all the way over to the other spectrum. You ’ve got some of the most patriotic believers in our democratic system, that would put most seventh generation Anglos to shame with their patriotism. And I mean that whole broad spectrum (Male Anglo county official). Political differences also do not necessarily fall along party lines. The most heated conflicts in some communities are within parties rather then between them. Instead, political conflict emerges based on residents’ ways of looking at the world. One set of conflicts arises based on whose needs are viewed as of primary concern: those of low- income farmworkers, or those of middle-class business owners. The second set of conflicts arises based on what is viewed as equality: treating everybody the same (the melting pot perspective), or recognizing differences (the salad bowl perspective). These different perspectives cause people to react differently to political conflicts even if the same goals are desired. F armworker Versus Business Interests The greatest political conflict exists between what could be classified as “business interests” -- those of wealthy and middle-class residents, including ranchers, and “farmworker interests.” Some people characterize these differences as Anglo versus Latino. Almost all farmworkers are Latino, and business people and farmers are more likely to be Anglo. However, many people do not focus on ethnicity in these conflicts as people with business interests are often Latino, and not all Anglos hold the views of business people. In general, “farmworker” interests include promoting programs for poorer residents, such as low-income housing development, subsidies for water and bills, and bilingual education and services. People with farmworker perspectives believe that the needs of the poor must be of primary concern as this is the most vulnerable population. The; the ] neet emr con the - for ' son For peo “far aha m6] pm All; gut CqL Ver PIC all( 43 i inte “CV 101 They also believe that aid to business interests will only result in greater inequality between the poor and the rich. People with “business” interests are more likely to emphasize the need for economic development, business subsidies, and tax reductions. They believe that emphasis on the needs of the poor will only encourage more poor people to move to the community. They believe that by helping business interests, employment will grow and the economic well—being of the entire community will improve. This, in turn, will allow for more funds for projects that benefit all community members.43 While these conflicts are not necessarily based on ethnicity or national origin, they sometimes become identified as racial because of the ethnicity of most of their supporters. For example, Cutler and Orosi are considering incorporating as one city. In Cutler/Orosi, people ”with “business interests” are more likely to be anti-incorporation, while people with “farmworker interests” are more likely to be pro-incorporation. Business interests are afraid of taxation that might come with a government elected by poorer community members, while farmworker interests hope that incorporation will allow them to compete for grants for low-income housing. From an ethnic standpoint, incorporation would probably result in greater political power among Latinos, and reduced power among Anglos. Cutler/Orosi is currently managed by the predominantly Anglo county government. Melting Pot Versus Salad Bowl Perspectives Political conflicts also emerge from contradictory views on what constitutes ethnic equality. In popular terminology these opposing views could be classified as “melting pot” versus “salad bowl.” People from both perspectives see themselves as not-prejudiced, and promoting racial equality, while viewing peOple with the other perspective as prejudiced and promoting racial discord. 43 People from the farmworker perspective note, however, that some people with business interests are only interested 1n projects that help themselves and their friends, and that they fight the development/attraction of new industries and businesses with which they would compete for labor, water, and markets. and The The and pets shm diffi 0er billr 102 Those who hold a melting pot perspective think everybody should be seen the same and treated the same.44 They believe in emphasizing similarities rather than differences.45 They reject programs such as affirmative action and bilingual education as anti-Anglo.46 They also resent court actions and requests for equal representation on governing boards and view bilingual services as being very costly for the community as a whole.47 This perspective also tends to view Mexican-pride programs as divisive, as they believe peOple should see themselves primarily as Americans.48 Those who hold a salad bowl perspective believe that only by recognizing differences can equality come about. They fight for proportional representation of Latinos, often through legal action.“9 They also promote services for Spanish-speakers, such as bilingual education and bilingual staff in government offices, and view these services as 44 e.g., “I used to always say wouldn't it be nice if we could all be painted purple and there would be no differences. But then it would be something else” (Male Anglo resident of an Anglo town). 45 e.g., “I like to say ‘Americans of Mexican Descent’ [rather than Mexican-Americans]” (Male Latino businessman). 46 e. g., “The pendulum has turned. There’s more prejudice towards Anglos now because you have to have a quota, you have to have a ratio" (Male Anglo Mexican town resident). 7 e. g., MAPA, a Mexican-American organization, sued one of the local hospitals for greater Hispanic representation on the hospital board. This prompted resentment among many people because of the large costs involved for the hospital. Bilingual education is disputed among many people because they believe students should learn English as their first priority, and that the schools should not fund special programs for non-English speakers. 43 In Woodlake, for example, in the 1970s, a group of teenagers painted a mural with images from Mexican history as a means of promoting pride in Mexican culture. This caused a great uproar in the community, and the city council put a court injunction to stop the mural, which was later defeated. The community was divided about it, some seeing it as dividing the community (e.g., people should see themselves as American rather than Mexican or Anglo), others seeing it as promoting pride among Mexican children. 49 “We’ve gone through the court system, filed suit against school districts, and have made some progress. The first time that the parents filed, we were instrumental in making them aware of what was going on, we had a program that had a bilingual component. Most of the board members were ranchers and they refused to have m language introduced into the school system. We wanted to have bilingual education and they didn’t want it. So they threw out a quarter of a million dollar program in order not to have Spanish language introduced into the school program. Well, there’s a tremendous amount of peOple that have come from Mexico and so those children needed to be educated. So the parents filed a class-action suit against the school district and won. 80 we have bilingual education. We have bilingual aides. Everything has just turned around. So then the second time, just recently, four years ago, another friend of mine filed a class action suit against the school district because we wanted district elections instead of at-large elections. We won the lawsuit, we have three Hispanics now in the school district. We have a Hispanic principal, we have a Hispanic counselor, so to serve our people. We didn’t do it in a way that we wanted to take over” (Female Latina Mexican town resident). - «in -, ne< prc etl l'CS an: COl am WC C01 30 ml Ofr 103 necessary for equality among all residents.50 They believe that people should learn about Mexican heritage and history to develop pride and counter stereotypes,S 1 and that by promoting understanding of cultural differences relations will improve among different ethnic groups.52 In general, Anglos tend to hold a melting pot perspective while foreign-born residents hold a salad bowl perspective. U.S.-born Latinos are likely to hold both perspectives simultaneously, and choose political allegiance with both or neither. The two contradictory sets of political views, business vs. farmworker interests, and melting pot versus salad bowl perspectives, cause the greatest amount of conflict in the communities under study. This conflict has risen from the conflicting needs of the growing immigrant-Latino population versus those of U.S.-born business—owners and ranchers, and contradictory perspectives of how best to integrate the new population. In other words, ethnic transformation itself intensifies political conflict. At the same time, growing conflict fuels ethnic transformation through emigration of middle class and Anglo residents. Social divisions between groups also prompt emigration, as does the existence of Anglo 50 e.g., [In the city council meetings translation iS also necessary, CV6" though there are Hispanic people there. This is how the Anglos maintain their control. They want people to participate, but they don’t accept a bilingual meeting. The Hispanic members of the council also don’t accept it if we want translation. We have to sit in the back and gather around a person that interprets for us to understand what’s going on. And 1 don’t see that as equality. I see it, it’s part of racism] “En las juntas de concilio también hay que tener traduccion, aunque hay personas hispanas allr’. Es la manera en que controla e1 anglo. .. Le gustan que uno participe, pero no aceptan que la junta sea bilingue. Los miembros de todo el consilio que son hispano tampoco aceptan traducirla si queremos traduccion. Tenemos que sentamos atras y hacer un grupito con una persona que nos interpreta para poder entenderlo. Y esto no lo miro como una i gualdad. Lo miro, es parte de racismo” (Female Latina Mexican town resident). 51 e.g., ”Politics being what it is, you know people say ‘well, it shouldn’t be race motivated,’ or ‘there shouldn’t be special interest groups,’ but even those who argue against special interest groups they themselves are a special interest group. When I went to Buffalo, Geraldine Ferrarro was there when l was there, they had a big thing there. And I knew then that those people are 80 pr 011d 0f their Italian heritage, why shouldn’t 1? They’re proud to be American. Why shouldn’t 1‘? Why shouldn’t I be equally proud of being Hispanic, being Mexican-American, and yet, not feel down about it or embarrassed about it. No need for that” (Male Latino Mexican town resident)- 52 For example, in Orosi high school there was a sudden uproar when an Anglo football coach decided that all players should have to shave their mustaches. The Mexican families became upset because of the importance that Mexican men place on their mustache. It was noted that if the coach had been more aware of cultural differences between Mexicans and Anglos the conflict COUId have been avoided. C0ll disc Pla the; she cor occ rel: cor dis Th. des €ll( P0] M2 no als co: 0“ 105 104 communities within commuting distance of Mexican towns. Each of these processes is discussed below. Ethnic Transformation The first question posed in this study asked why ethnic transformation is occurring. Places are not going through the same patterns of demographic change, and, as a result, they are becoming increasingly dissimilar from each other. The quantitative analyses showed that m Latino and non-Latino population growth and loss explained changing community ethnicity. But through what processes are population growth and loss occurring among the different ethnic and nationality groups? These factors include jobs, relations among ethnic/nationality groups, perceptions of the quality of life in the community, and housing. This section explores the processes that are encouraging and discouraging the migration of Anglos, U.S.-born Latinos, and foreign-born Latinos. These migration patterns have led to the geographic, economic, social, and political patterns described above. At the same time, these patterns and divisions among people are encouraging further ethnic transformation. N on-Latino White Population Growth and Loss Jobs People in the communities under study most frequently attributed the loss of Anglo population to a lack of economic Opportunity, as hypothesized (Hypotheses 1.1 - 1.3). Many respondents cited the lack of opportunities for high-skill jobs in their communities, noting that almost all employment consisted of fieldwork and packing house jobs. They also noted that local businesses were having a hard time staying solvent as people commuted longer distances for shopping and services. As businesses closed, the Anglo owners moved elsewhere. However, the relative importance of economic opportunities for understanding the loss and growth of non-Latino population is small. People in all of the communities, even tho to“ 0ve em H0 act adr res W0 Vi: em ski ma wh Spt pla mc cm the C0] far Wh C01 m 1'- " _,_ “He-f... 105 those that gained non-Latino population, complained about the lack of high-skill jobs in town. For example, in Exeter, a town that experienced grgw_th in non-Latino population over the last decade, almost all interviewees expressed concern about the lack of employment opportunities for people with higher levels of education. Furthermore, there were jobs for college graduates in all of the places under study. However, the ethnicity of the community determined whether those high-skill workers actually lived within the community. Interviews conducted in each city with principals, city administrators, police chiefs and fire chiefs revealed a consistent pattern in terms of the residences of their staff. Most of the teachers, hospital/clinic workers, police/emergency workers, bank managers, and city employees in the Mexican towns did not live within the towns in which they worked. Instead, they commuted from large cities such as Fresno or Visalia that were 1/2 to two hours away, Anglo communities close to their city of employment, or from a country ranch. In Anglo communities, however, most of the hi gh— skill employees did live within the community. In fact, Anglo communities also contained many residents who held high-skill jobs in large cities located 1/2 to two hours away, but who chose to commute from the smaller town because they preferred to live in the country. Jobs are important in individuals’ decisions to move into or out of regions. But the specific place in which they settle is influenced more strongly by other factors. All rural places have proportionately fewer high-skill and medium-skill jobs than urban places, so most peOple have to move to urban areas, or commute long distances, to find higher-paying employment. Those peOple who do find jobs in the rural area do not necessarily settle in the city in which they work. While Anglo towns serve as bedroom communities for commuting city workers, Latino towns serve as bedroom communities for commuting farmworkers. Anglo towns serve as homes to middle-class workers in Latino towns, while Latino towns serve as homes to working-class employees in Anglo communities. These communities are not far from each other. However, their ethnic and economic composition determine the type of people who live there, regardless of where their 6X WI [0‘ pr: ch CC bll Ch 106 residents work. The quantitative analyses confirm these findings in that none of the economic climate variables (job growth, wage growth, restructuring) predict growth in non-Latino population. Anglo - Immigrant Relationships Basically (this) is a Hispanic community. So if you’re an Anglo you’ll go to Fowler, or Reedley. It’s a Hispanic town, so Anglos don ’t want to move here. Salvadorefios are moving in, the Filipinos are stable. Minimarts are being taken over by Hindus ( Latino Male Mexican town resident). (That Mexican town) is not safe. Even in the daytime. I don 't like parking at the bank across from the supermarket with all of the Mexican people hanging on the walls (Anglo Female Anglo town resident). The descriptions offered earlier of the social, geographic, and political divisions that exist in the communities under study demonstrate the general lack of social networks between Anglo and foreign-born residents. In fact, one of the most important reasons for white migration from Latino communities is the unease of many non-Hispanic whites towards living in Latino communities. Part of this relationship can be simply attributed to prejudice. As one Anglo man in a Mexican town explained the loss of white population, "they didn’t like Mexicans. If you're [racially prejudiced], you're not going to live here." Many respondents indicated that their friends or neighbors felt uncomfortable with the changing ethnicity in their communities, especially as Latinos gained more political and economic power. In one community, the election of a group of Hispanic city officials brought about negative feelings in the Anglo community, and prompted people to leave. At an elementary school, one secretary noted that many Anglo parents transferred their children from that school with the installation of a new Hispanic principal: A lot of people moved in after the war from Oklahoma. My grandparents housed them. We played together. I had no problem with that. In the 50s we had people coming from Nuevo Leon. Now maybe 30%. They saw Hispanics moving in -- whites started moving out. In the 70s, 80 -— when the schools became 85—90% Hispanic in the high school Anglo parents started sending their kids to private schools. I Why? ] Read between my lines. I don 't want to say out loud, I do business here (Male Latino Mexican town resident). Par ack all her 315: La \toi AI of int. Let be soc res qu: La' 107 Furthermore, there are obvious tensions between Anglos and Latino immigrants. Part of this may be due to prejudice, and part to unease at cultural difference. There is acknowledgment among these two groups of their mutual economic dependence. Almost all non-immigrants claim that they could not do without immigrants because “we need them because the white people don’t want to do the work (Anglo woman)” However, there is also distrust and lack of communication. Few Anglos speak any Spanish, while few recent Latino immigrants speak any English. They do not socialize together. Almost all Anglos voice resentment about the economic burdens that immigrants bring to their communities. At the same time, almost all recent immigrants report incidents of direct discrimination by Anglos. Of course, there are Anglo residents of Mexican towns who appreciate the influx of new population, who recognize the strengths of the new population, and who work to integrate farmworkers, and especially children, into the community. Likewise, some Latino immigrants have had very good relationships with Anglos, and feel they have benefited greatly from contact with the Anglo community. But, in general, there are large social, economic, and geographic gaps between these groups. Therefore, those Anglo residents who feel uncomfortable as the numerical minority often leave. As shown in the quantitative analyses, Anglos were most likely to leave places that were ethnically more Latino in 1980, and to move to places that were ethnically more Anglo. cor Lat afft sch bur hat for: COT in (its fan 3m: h0t noi nei uns Sill; 53 V Con W01 tow as l! sucl diff 108 uali 0 Li e Factors The relationship between immigration and white emigration is not solely attributable to prejudice. Instead, it is more strongly related to perceived changes in the quality of community life. Such perceptions encourage outmigration of both Anglos and middle—class Latinos. Many people feel that immigrants from Mexico and Central America negatively affect the community because their presence brings about overcrowded housing and schools, more drunk driving, more demands on police and emergency workers, and burdens on the welfare and MediCal systems. Places with larger foreign-born populations have more problems with poverty and poverty-associated issues than places with smaller foreign-born populations. However, the degree of influence of these problems on community life is subjectively determined.53 Overcrowded housing results from the lack of economic resources among immigrants, and the necessity to "double up" so that housing is affordable. Some of this overcrowding occurs through sub-letting and sub-sub-letting. Much of it also occurs as families and friends support each other by offering housing, and moving in together. Even small housing units become filled past capacity. Neighbors come to resent such crowded housing, complaining about property deterioration, the quantity of cars blocking the streets, noise, and fights as a result of overcrowding. As they feel more uncomfortable in their neighborhood, they search for housing elsewhere. There are even indications that some unscrupulous landlords have purposely allowed housing to deteriorate, and have rented single-family housing to groups of single male farmworkers in an effort to encourage 53 When asked to describe the community, there was a relationship between the economic status of a community member and his/her belief that crime was a substantial problem in the place. Professional workers in Mexican towns who lived in Anglo communities expressed serious concern about living in the Mexican town, citing examples of shootings, gangs, theft, and drugs. Middle-class residents of Mexican towns were moderately concerned, but generally stated that the problems in their community were the same as in most places. Fannworkers and working-class residents compared their community to urban areas, such as L.A. or Fresno, and discussed the lack of crime as one of the advantages of their community. These different attitudes are consistent with people’s past behavior and their options for future behavior. Farrnworkers can not afford to move to more expensive places, and so minimize the threat of danger in their far he ed etl fat so lit llC 109 families to move and sell their property at below-market prices (akin to “block busting” techniques used to encourage white flight from urban areas):54 A lot [of previously owner-occupied houses] have been turned farm laborer housing-squeeze as many as you can into it, because there’s just so much agricultural here. It is cheap in relation to Visalia. You can buy a house real cheap and then turn it into a farm labor camp. People living in town, people living out of town, it doesn ’t matter. They see the opportunity for making fast money and they squeeze as many people into a house... It tends to be real destructive for the community. It provides housing, but the housing is never maintained and it tends to be poor quality. And it tends to have spillover eflects (Male Anglo Mexican town city employee). In the schools, teachers, administrators, and parents discuss the difficulties in keeping up with increasing populations of students. They also noted conflict over bilingual education. Many of the Anglo families who do live in Latino communities do not send their children to the local schools, but to private schools in neighboring mixed- ethnicity/Anglo communities: The schools are overcrowded because they'll hire anybody to do field work. Classes have gone from 20 to 35 students. Some teachers were teaching in Spanish. I have nothing against bilingualism, but parents were upset because even the Anglo kids were being taught in Spanish (Female Latina resident of a Mexican town). Problems with drunk driving, fights, and medical emergencies are attributed by many community members to excessive alcohol and drug use among single male farmworkers. They note the tendency of male farmworkers to drink and take drugs more so than other residents, due to the stress of being away from their families, the difficult living and working conditions, peer pressure from other male farmworkers, and cultural norms. Alcoholism and use of alcohol are clearly problems in farmworker communities. Many recent immigrants faced difficult financial situations as relatives were put in jail for community, while people who chose to move from the community substantiate their behavior by magnifying the danger in the Mexican towns. 4 “Blockbusting” is a technique that was used to encourage white flight from urban areas. It is now illegal. Realtors would instill fear in residents of white neighborhoods that the neighborhood was being taken over by Blacks, and that their property values were going to go down unless they sold immediately. The realtors would then buy properties from white families at below-market prices and sell them to Black families at above-market prices. dr 1 10 drunk driving, and could no longer work for much-needed family income. As a result of all of these factors, people complain that their towns look "dirty" and feel dangerous:55 There’s more violence there, in those [farmworker] houses. You put 10 guys in a house, tempers flare. There’s more drinking. We went to one fight over a radio station. One guy shot another guy. They can get away, too, because they just go back to Mexico. You don’t go messing with them (Male county emergency worker). Furthermore, wealthier communities have amenities not available in the Mexican towns, such as a greater variety of businesses, more public and private schools, better enforcement of city ordinances on housing and pets, and more recreational programs for children and adults. Moneys are also more likely to be invested in areas desired by middle- class residents rather than projects that primarily benefit poorer community residents. Therefore, many middle-class residents who can afford to leave, do leave, and middle-class residents who are looking for a place to settle choose not to move into Mexican towns: At first the neighborhood was good with its new houses and good people. There are good Mexicans. But there are bad ones, too. They move several families into one house. First one family comes, then relatives move in. The community was deteriorating, so we left. (Female Anglo former Mexican town resident) Finally, the impact of housing growth on population growth should not be minimized. In the quantitative analyses, housing growth was the strongest predictor of non-Latino, Latino and foreign-born population. While the relationship between housing and population growth is reciprocal, every city official interviewed for this study attributed much of their city’s population growth, or lack of growth, to changes in available housing. Orange Cove has seen a jump in its population since building new low-income apartments and houses. Exeter maintains a cap on its population growth by allowing housing to grow by less than five percent per year. In fact, it is disagreement about housing growth, 55However, police/emergency workers do not report a significant problem compared to larger communities. Furthermore, the perception of towns as "dirty" seems to differ dependlng on the person who is speaking, and involves more than the actual appearance of the communities. est Ex If: aCl res an we {Cl be: VEi the 111 especially regarding low-income or rental housing, that has caused the greatest conflict in Exeter within the last several years. Residents know that more housing means population growth, and they want to remain a small community. U.S.—Born Latino Population Growth: Comparison to Anglos For many of the same reasons that Anglos are leaving (e. g., better shOpping, more activities, higher-quality housing, less poverty, less crowded schools, unease with recent immigrants), middle-class, U.S.-bom Mexican-Americans are also moving to larger, more ethnically-mixed communities. As with Anglos, many Latino respondents consider the Anglo communities to be better places to live and to raise a family. They cite the better resources in the wealthier cities, and they complain about problems with youth and crime, and cultural differences of recent immigrants in the Mexican towns: People just want to do better. People who move out, something better for their kids. I mean as far as the schools, there’s not a high school [in this town ] for the kids, there’s not a college. And I think those who can afiord to do that don’t have transportation, so they ’re stuck (Female Mexican town resident). The Mexican men bring the town down. They follow you, making noises. It’s annoying. They totally disrespect you. We have more liquor stores here than ever before. (Female Latina Mexican town resident). The quantitative analyses showed that Latino population grew more in places that were less Latino in 1980, controlling for immigration. As with Anglos, wealthier Latinos tend to move away from farmworker communities. This leads to economic differences between Latinos in Anglo/mixed communities compared to Latinos in Mexican towns. To verify these differences, Figure 25 shows scatterplots of education levels among Latinos by the percentage of foreign-born residents in the community. Latinos living in communities with smaller percentages of foreign-born residents are much more likely to have high school and college degrees than are Latinos living in places with larger percentages of foreign-born residents. SC .41—Wm.- - _.~. ..._.. 112 100 ~— - wit... It- 80 -J. _ . a tn ‘3 Q) on .. E % 60l§§§é 7" (:3 f. .1“ " O '8 .8 0 Cl.) .C: .2” :1": a? 401:" ‘9‘?"- :" - ‘ . - % Latinos with high a school degrees % Latinos with college degrees O 10 20 30 4O 50 60 70 Percentage of Community Residents Who Are Foreign-Bom Figure 25. Latino Education Levels by Percentage of Residents who are Foreign-Bom However, despite some similarities, several differences can be seen between Anglos and Mexican-Americans that affect their migration patterns. It could be because of these differences that the quantitative analyses explained less variance in Latino pOpulation growth than in non-Latino population growth. U.S.-bom Latinos are not moving out of Mexican towns to the same extent as Anglos, and some U.S.—bom Latinos are choosing to move into Latino communities, while Anglos are not. U. S. -Born Latino-Immigrant Relationships U.S.-born Latinos, in general, have a different relationship with immigrants from Mexico and Central America than do Anglos. Mexican-Americans who were born or raised in the United States seem to occupy a buffering position in rural California, between Anglos and recent immigrants. They generally have family and friendship ties with both groups, are economically mixed with both groups, and generally speak both English and some Spanish. Politically, they tend to hold views that vary between resentment of the IQ 113 economic burdens of immigrants, and empathy towards immigrants due to their own roots in the farmworker community.56 As a result, they are much less threatened by increasing immigration into their communities. Furthermore, many have taken advantage of the changing ethnicity of their communities and have become successful business people and political leaders. Because of their ties to the immigrant community, and their education in the United States, they are uniquely advantaged in their communities: (This city) is unique in that if you really want to do something you can do it here. Sometimes when you’re at the bottom that’s the best place to be because everyone else sees it as why there? I guess it’s how you see it. The fact that it 's predominantly Hispanic, the fact that I did have an opportunity to get a good education... (Male Latino Mexican town city employee) Housing Second, many Latinos face structural impediments to migration. Most of the housing in Anglo/mixed—ethnicity communities is more costly than that in Latino communities. Not only are housing units of the same size more expensive, but the type of housing that is available is in a higher price range. Because Latino families generally own less wealth than Anglo families, it is more difficult for them to move to areas with higher- priced housing: _ [ Why do people stay in (here)? What makes it attractive .7] It's not attractive, ha-ha. It's a small town. There are lower housing prices (Female Latina Mexican town resident). Cultural Diflerences There are also cultural differences between Anglo and Mexican families that are suggested to impact migration decisions. Many respondents noted that Latino children are more than Anglo children likely to stay in their community as they come to be adults. Latino respondents attributed this phenomenon to closer family ties and greater 56 e.g., “There’s very little resentment on the immigrants coming in because they’re mostly family. There’s so many connections one way or another. If it’s not your family, it’s your neighbor’s family. I think from, at least from the Hispanic community, there’s not that much resentment” (Female Latina Mexican town resident). bl 114 responsibility towards family among Latinos. Adult Latinos, they suggested, maintain closer ties with their parents and siblings than Anglos and so are less likely to leave the community.57 Not only do they feel emotional ties, but they help each other economically with educational expenses, house maintenance costs, and general family support, so that they feel an economic responsibility towards staying. Non-Latinos attributed this phenomenon to a lack of experience outside of the Latino community. Adult Latinos, they suggested, feel uncomfortable in Anglo communities and environments because of cultural and economic differences, and consequently are less likely to leave home and more likely to return. Regardless of the motivation of young Latino adults, the fact that they are more likely to remain encourages their parents to stay as well, so that there is a reinforcing effect that maintains the Latino population in the community. Because Anglo children do not stay in the communities in which they were raised, their parents are less interested in remaining in these communities after they retire. In fact, adult Anglo children often encourage their parents to move out of the Latino communities, because they view them as unsafe. Therefore, both younger and older Anglos are more likely to leave Latino communities because of cultural differences between ethnic groups: . But it ’s only the old-timers that move out, like husband and wife. I think that that ’s the Anglos, the English. Because all their kids are grown up. They grow up and they move out. So it’s only the husband and the wife left at home. So they sell their house and they move out (Female Mexican town resident). Additionally, some middle-class Latinos have decided to stay within their communities, despite economic opportunities elsewhere, because of their concern for their communities, and the promotion of the well-being of future generations of Mexican- Americans. Segura (1992) has noted the desire among many minorities to seek jobs in which they promote the needs of their ethnic community. By staying and working with 57 However, Anglos as well as Latinos discussed family roots as important reasons for remaining in their community. It could be that these Anglos place more importance on family ties than the Anglos who left. 115 their communities, Latino community leaders re-affirm their ethnic identities, and receive the satisfaction of knowing that they are contributing to something that is important to them: I still live in ( that Mexican town). It’s familiar, with all the people in town. And I wanted to be an example for my friends and their kids. When I was growing up you used to hear about how the Japanese, the whites, are smart peOple. Why not us? I always thought that maybe people looked at me like maybe I wasn’t going to accomplish much. Maybe because of who I was and my nationality, I don’t know. That ’s one thing I could say about myself, I’ve always had something to prove (Male Latino Mexican town resident). While many Anglo residents of Mexican towns also work to promote their community and increase opportunities for local children, they do not have the ethnic motivation that inspires more of the Latino community members, and their visions for the community sometimes clash with the Latino-majority population. Jobs The quantitative analyses showed that population growth was not affected by labor market changes, with the exception of the effect of agricultural intensification on Latino and foreign-born population growth. The importance of agricultural employment in settlement decisions also came through in qualitative interviews. Consistently, Latino respondents without post-high school education mentioned the availability of year-round employment as one of the primary reasons they moved to the area. Agricultural and food processing/packaging jobs attract former migrant workers, but they also attract U.S.-born workers who would never consider migrant labor but are not opposed to agricultural labor in general. Some people have even moved from higher-paying jobs in large cities to lower- paying jobs in the rural areas to get away from crime and violence in the city. The availability of agricultural jobs has a larger impact on Latino population growth than does 116 the availability of other types of jobs because these jobs are aimed primarily at low-skill Latino workers.58 Moreover, the effect of year-round agricultural employment on Latino settlement goes beyond its attraction of low-wage field and food-processing plant workers. Established-resident Latinos are not attracted to places because of field work. However, they have unique opportunities in farmworker communities that can encourage them to stay. Therefore, because the intensification of agricultural production encourages the settlement of foreign-born workers, it indirectly encourages the settlement of U.S.-—bom Latinos. For example, those people who speak both English and Spanish and who have connections with recent immigrants can become farm labor contractors and farm managers. They can also fill employment niches created by the growing foreign-born population, such as working in migrant education, or as interpreters or bilingual employees, or becoming entrepreneurs who serve low-wage farmworker populations. In areas such as housing, insurance, check cashing, food services, and discount product sales, people have started businesses without much competition and with small capital investment.59 They know what services are needed by farmworkers, and if they have the language, skills, and networks to meet those needs they can deve10p successful careers. The quantitative section showed that places that experienced foreign born population growth experienced greater Latino population growth. This Was expected because most foreign-born residents are Latino. However, part of this relationship may also result because of the special economic opportunities for U.S.-bom Latinos that accompany growth in foreign-born population. 58 e. g., “My cousin’s family used to live in L.A., but they moved here because they like it better. It’s more like quiet. In L. A. there are a lot of gang members. They wanted a place for their children to go to school and it’s better for them” (Female Latina Mexican town resident)- 59 For example, because of the housing shortage in agricultural areas, it is easy to find tenants for even the least expensive housing, especially in peak picking seasons. Because many migrant workers lack kitchen facilities in their housing there is a high demand for food services. There is also a demand for discount clothing and products, so that some people have begun their businesses by selling out of their cars and eventually moving into stores. ‘l I—H IK~_. *7 1 17 Foreign-Bom Population Growth Jobs Immigrants are seen as a never—ending source of population growth. There is a general consensus that as long as the economic Opportunities in Mexico are low, the Mexican population of California will continue to grow. People claim that the quality of jobs and the quality of life in the communities are not as important to foreign-born newcomers because of the comparison to economic opportunities in Mexico:60 They come here because of a friend of a friend, and the other friend brings five or six. They don’t tell them about the living conditions, they only tell them that there ’s work. And people need money in Mexico so it sounds good. So they come (Female Latina Mexican town resident). Year-round employment leads to permanent settlement of foreign-born workers because it is no longer necessary or economically profitable to move around for employment. Therefore, regional areas undergoing agricultural restructuring from seasonal to long-term crops experience more growth in the permanent settlement of farmworkers: As the citrus acreage increased that brought stability to (this town) and the other cities along the orange belt. As you had more reliable work than it became less necessary to migrate out of the area (Male Latino Mexican town resident). Housing Because the location of fieldwork varies from job to job, housing costs are more salient than job proximity for settlement decisions. There is a lack of quality affordable housing for agricultural workers in most of the agricultural communities, so residents are forced to live in substandard units until they can find better housing. As a result, the most commonly mentioned reason for movement to Latino communities was the availability of affordable housing. The effect of housing on population growth can be seen in the P0 However, while people may stay in California because of the greater economic opportunities than those In Mexico or Central America, they are also very aware of their economic position compared to U.S.-born resrdents and feel frustrated by the inequality. ouuxx farmw apartn pohch inneh Slll'l'Ol avafla hisn torch housi reskh thetfl housi Hous hous lesss those andi ifiSp com 118 outcomes of local housing policies. The city of Orange Cove purposely increased its farmworker population by promoting the development of low-income houses and apartments. The farmworker population of Exeter substantially decreased at one time when policies restricting housing growth brought Exeter’s houses and rents out of line with those in neighboring places.61 Exeter no longer has a “barrio” where farmworkers live, but it is surrounded by corrrmunities composed mostly of farmworkers. In a tight housing market, any type of housing growth can lead to greater availability of low-income housing, as older units are vacated for newer homes. Therefore, it is not just low—income housing growth that leads to foreign-born population growth. The foreign-born populations of both Exeter and Orange Cove have grown, although the newer housing in Exeter is of a much higher price range than that in Orange Cove. Established residents have moved into new houses and apartments, allowing newcomers to move into the older units. This is consistent with the quantitative analyses which showed that housing growth, rather than housing costs, predicted all types of population growth. Housing growth opens up affordable housing without necessarily lowering average housing costs. Qualigg of Life Factors The quality of life factors that are important to U.S.-born Latinos and Anglos are less salient to farmworkers because many compare the conditions in the rural towns to those available to them in larger cities. They view the Mexican towns as safer places to live and raise children. They also feel more comfortable in towns that are predominantly Hispanic, as these places are more likely to have bilingual service providers, and communities of other peOple from their home areas in Mexico. 61 This also made it more difficult for high- and middle-income people to move there, including people who had grown up in Exeter. It also made it difficult for Exeter residents to move within the city. resir “CW1 resit tend new con Pop higl 119 Ethnicity and Economic Development Housing, agricultural intensification, community ethnic composition, and social capital between ethnic and national-origin groups each influence the ethnic transformation of rural places. Ethnic transformation, in turn, affects the socio-economic conditions of places. The quantitative analyses showed that non-Latino and foreign-born population growth directly affected community economic development. The human capital level of communities in 1980 was also an important predictor of economic deve10pment, along with job and wage growth. Each of these factors has been noted by community residents as directly and indirectly affecting the well-being of their community. The processes through which economic development is affected by these conditions are described in this section. Population Growth Long-term residents are prouder of the community. They keep their houses up. New, shorter-termers don't. Newcomers come from Mexico. They have different standards (Male Anglo Mexican town resident). The newer [residents] are leaving large areas like LA and what have you. They’re looking for something difi‘erent. The older (residents), I think they’re very concerned about growth. They don’t want it to get much bigger, you know, get out of hand. I think the people that come in here probably have got more education, probably higher level skills (Anglo Female Anglo-town resident). People speak of “newcomers” as people who are different from established residents, but who are quickly absorbed into the community. In Anglo/mixed places, newcomers are perceived to have more education and higher incomes than established residents. They often come from larger cities seeking a small town environment. In Mexican towns newcomers are usually immigrants from Mexico or Central America. They tend to have Leg education and lower incomes than established residents. Both types of newcomers are viewed simultaneously as having positive and negative effects on the community by established community residents. In-Anglo/mixed places there are fears that population growth will change the character of life in the small town, although it brings hi gher—income people into the city and boosts housing values. In Mexican towns popul incon will f Lahn nonl wealt while inbo pros; popu nngl hihl niah farm [flats grou such and. 120 population growth is seen as a possible sources of economic growth, despite the low incomes of newcomers. As more peOple move in, there is h0pe that business development will follow. Quantitative analyses showed that places which experienced more growth in non— Latino population experienced greater economic development, while those that lost more non-Latinos experienced less economic development. Non-Latinos tend to have more wealth, on average, than Latinos, so growth in non-Latinos brings economic development while loss in this population brings economic decline. This is clearly recognized by people in both Anglo and Latino communities. When asked why Exeter was economically more prosperous than neighboring communities, almost all respondents noted the larger Anglo population. In the Mexican towns, people also noted the larger Anglo population in neighboring places to explain their community’s relative disadvantage. However, residents in Mexican towns more often highlighted their large farmworker population to explain the relative economic differences. Farrnworker towns are known to be low-income places because the income of farmworkers is not stable. As places become increasingly composed of farmworkers, the places themselves also become increasingly economically vulnerable. At the same time, growth of foreign-born population also has positive effects on community development, such as boosting property values and providing a market and labor supply for businesses and entrepreneurs. Immigration also decreases the dependency ratio of the community (that is, in PeOP dove in fat COHC deve —— p—4. _'- %'— ~_ _‘ -_. A ’5‘ ‘. \-v- \‘D-‘_ less func bCCE [Ede enn finu 122 interest groups did not cooperate to promote economic development. Although many issues were involved in these conflicts, they could be classified as either farmworker interests versus business interests, or salad bowl versus melting pot perspectives, as discussed in the previous section: The town is divided politically, between those who support the mayor and council and those who don 't. The council is supported by the less educated, more prejudiced pro-Hispanic people. If push comes to shove, they'll come down on the pro-Hispanic, anti-American side. Even though the opposition is mostly Hispanic, they say that the opposition is under the influence of whites (Male Anglo Mexican town Resident). Half of Orange Cove loves the mayor and the city council. The other half despises them. And yet, they know the man is trying to bring up the community... as far as getting jobs in here, as far as getting homes. Not just projects or apartments, he’s actually trying to get homes. And they ’11 be people praising him for that, and they’ll be people putting him down for that. Because a lot of the people here, that are old-timers here, whether they be Anglo or whether they be Mexican, they don’t really want to see Orange Cove grow anymore. ...But if we want this community to make it on its own we’ve got to have more housing, we ’ve got to have more jobs coming in (Female Latina Mexican town resident). Both communities now show signs of substantial improvement in terms of a lessening of community political conflict, improved housing, and "greater availability of funds for economic development.63 In both cases these improved conditions have occurred because of decisive victories of new political leaders, more aggressive city efforts to pursue federal and state grants, and greater interest in community redevelopment projects. City employees, and many community residents, showed considerable optimism about the future, based on the city improvements they had recently accomplished. In contrast, city officials in the Anglo community under study described at length the amount of cooperation in their town. Some people remarked that city council meetings 63 Development moneys in both of these cities were used for low-income residents, rather than for business- owners, or higher—income residents as in other communities studied. City governments in both of these communities seemed to show a greater commitment to helping low-income farm worker families than did the governments of ethnically-diverse communities. They attributed this concern to their own backgrounds as farm workers. rterc (rga theh andr iflhn FIAN >9500 thatt bear popu pove peOp deve 123 were boring because nobody ever seemed to disagree. The schools, businesses, social organizations, and city government worked so well together that they were able to pool their moneys within the last year to build an Olympic-size swimming pool, tennis courts, and a baseball stadium for the community. Human Capital [Where do you think community money should be put?] Education. And I 'm not just talking about the schools. I’m talking about educating the public as far as new ideas and work, how to better themselves, general knowledge. Not that the people are ignorant, no. But sometimes it takes a little stimulation to create growth (Male Latino Mexican town resident). Community economic development from 1980 to 1990 was substantially higher in places in which a greater percentage of adults had high school degrees in 1980. This could be an indicator of underclass conditions in some places. Places in which the majority of the population has only limited education should have concurrent problems with income and poverty. However, it is also an indicator that such places may lack sufficient numbers of people with leadership and business skills to direct the community’s economic development: rn~m-VrmmNNmfi~th-_1 NMNNfi-gt‘ \M-fim com poor OVCF roles in th lOWe Syslt with 6“ A1 reSldt a.. r . , ”gym-«n- ’M‘ 1"“ 124 The problem that we’re experiencing in small, rural communities as they become predominantly Latino, you’re dealing with a lot of first and second generation Hispanic families and we are not seeing leadership emerge yet. What happens in the Latino communities, you get people who come up here from Mexico primarily, they move into a community, they raise their kids, they try to do more for their kids than they had, a lot of these people are totally uneducated. They don’t learn the language because they don ’t have the opportunity. (So they don’t get involved as community leaders.) So now the second generation of Latinos, generally goes on to junior college. And the reason for this, and I see kid after kid after kid, bright, intelligent Latino kids that have full scholarships and you find out that the reason they didn’t go was that they weren’t comfortable. The social discrepancies are so large that there is no comfort level in them going more than a few miles away to college. So now you have your second generation living in the community with a junior college education, capable of assuming leadership, but still committed to the vow their parents made, to make life better for the succeeding generation. By the time they have children and their children are in high school, they realize that they blew it by not taking advantage of that scholarship they had. So now they are working hard at putting their kids through college, making life better for their kids, with little or no time at all for community involvement. Now you have a community like that where there is nothing for the next generation, the well educated generation, to come back to. They are dispersed to the four comers of the world (Male Anglo county official). Several of the local leaders interviewed for this study discussed problems in community leadership. They noted that in many of the Latino communities a handful of peOple ran most of the local organizations, and that these people Were generally older and over-extended. They found it difficult to get younger generations involved in leadership roles, because few of the local children who attain higher levels of education actually stay in the community as adults.64 Most of the working-age population is foreign-born with lower levels of education. They have little experience with the political and economic systems affecting the community, as well as fewer resources in terms of time and money with which they can get involved. Those people with higher levels of education who work —_—_ 64 Although, as discussed earlier, Latino children were more likely to stay in the community, most resrdents (Latino and non-Latino) who go on to higher education do not stay in the community. inthet Thnlc knowl credh nuwo nouad succe these towth aretx labor local thetl rend. anal asns gove entre 65 Rex or iii club, 125 in the communities are more likely to be involved in the communities in which they live.65 This leaves a smaller pool of people who can step into leadership positions with the skills, knowledge, and social networks to be successful. People in Orange Cove, for example, credit the success of their government to the fact that it has a strong leader with broad networks within the community, with other communities, and at the national level. They note that other places have not been successful because they lack this leadership. Furthermore, places with lower levels of human capital are less likely to have successful business development. This is not to say that entrepreneurship does not exist in these places. To the contrary, both foreign-born and U.S.-bom residents of Mexican towns have developed businesses of all types. Some of the richest community members are people who have developed businesses based on the farmworker population--farm labor contractors and check cashing/currency exchange enterprises. However, thriving local economies are not developing from these businesses. Portes and Manning (1986) note that one of the most important elements needed for the development of an ethnic enclave economy is business experience. In places where few residents have high school degrees, this experience is less frequent. In interviews with small business owners, many people expressed the need for greater knowledge and assistance in navigating laws and getting business advice. Several county business and government leaders discussed the economic potential that exists in Mexican towns for entrepreneurs who have both business expertise and an understanding of the culture of the 65 e.g., “ What you have is schools where the teachers don’t live here. They live in Clovis. They live in Reedley. They come here to work, but then they’ve got to get home by 3:30 to get their kids in cub scouts or little league. Do they just take him to practice and drop him off? No, they’re probably president of the club. or involved in some way. That’s what (this town) lacks” (Male Latino Mexican town resident). recog and ‘ fede: deva obta impl com and DC“. to it intc hov 66 t. 11nd in ( son (M: 126 community.66 While some successful businesses have been developed, they note that few people possess both of these types of knowledge. Social Capital (Our mayor) calls up Washington and people know who he is. He went to Washington and let them know the situation of the growers and fieldworkers here. He ’s the leader of the Fresno County group of mayors When the freeze hit people in Fresno dedicated a dinner to him because he went to Washington on the part of the growers, of the people of this area (Male Latino worker in a Mexican town). Networks with county, state, and federal government (vertical social capital) are recognized as being very important for community economic development. Orange Cove and Woodlake have been able to obtain new housing because of connections with the federal government and pursuance of grants. In 1990, when a catastrOphic freeze devastated the entire region, the mayor of Orange Cove was able to bring in federal funding by appealing to Washington. His networks have allowed Orange Cove to continue to obtain federal aid for the community in times of need. Networks among community residents (horizontal networks) are also very important. As discussed under the section on changing ethnic composition, many communities attribute their lack of economic development to conflict within the community, and lack of communication between established U.S.-bom residents and foreign-born newcomers. The lack of networks between economic classes and ethnic groups also contributes to the absence of leadership among community members. If newcomers are not integrated into the clubs and social networks of established members, they do not receive training in how to run community organizations. If the community leaders then leave, or if the new 66 “It’s going to take two things for somebody to do well in a community like Cutler/Orosi. One is understanding business principles. The other is to understand the culture of the community. What happens in Cutler/Orosi is you have lots of people who understand the culture of the community, and you have some people who understand the principles of running a business, but very few people understand both” (Male Anglo county official). Mart of in get it SUCCr uniq 127 population is uncomfortable with the way the community is being run, there is nobody to 5 take over the leadership roles: You had these people who were in power in (this city). Let’s say they’re running the boy scouts, if you don’t set in a plan to train new leaders when you leave there’s going to be a void there. (This city), I feel personally, that a lot of our institutions like boy scouts, girl scouts, little league, we lost leadership. If you don’t have the knowledge or self-esteem to change something, then you’re caught dead in the water. (This city) in the last 5 years has started changing that. We ’re learning that we can do anything any other place does, but we’ve got to do it for ourselves. Plans are being made now to train new leaders (Mexican town city employee). Many of the highly-involved Latino leaders with whom I spoke discussed the importance of mentors -- established Anglo and Latino community members who encouraged them to get involved in the community as children or young adults. They attributed much of the success in their lives to the fact that these mentors broadened their outlook beyond that of farrnwork and traditional expectations. However, they noted that their experiences were unique. Cali: com factt assu frorr affet The hyrx men dem com ethn com or d proc POp' CHAPTER 6. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS Summary of Hypotheses This study set out to explain: 1) why the ethnic composition of places in rural California is changing, and what the factors are leading to uneven changes; and 2) why community socio-economic well-being is so strongly defined by ethnicity, and what the factors are leading to unequal wealth and development. While previous researchers have assumed that the increasing “Latinization” of places was due to continuing immigration from Mexico and Latin America, this study hypothesized that community ethnicity was also affected by population growth and population loss of non-Latinos and U.S.—bom Latinos. The growth of all three types of population (foreign-born, Latino, and non-Latino) were hypothesized to vary based on industrial factors, previous wealth held by community members, immigration factors, geographic context, cost of living "differences, and demographic changes (see Figure 2). These same factors were also hypothesized to affect community economic development, along with the population growth of the three ethnic/national-origin groups. Therefore, it was expected that the combination of ethnic composition and economic factors would explain the relationship between the ethnic composition of places and their economic development. Ethnic Transformation Places could become increasingly Latino through either growing Latino population or declining non-Latino (white) population. It was hypothesized that both of these processes were occurring. Quantitative analyses showed that Latino and non-Latino population growth contributed in relatively equal amounts to the changing ethnic 128 com} com] non- Mex lmm more perc Iran: wen loss COllt tran P0P 21 re P0P C0ll con Lat mo pla bor inc ' “TA“ ' ' -._‘~- .- .-. .a 7 m “‘4-_.,-—-—_ F_ _ .. F’ 129 composition of communities. The contribution of foreign-born population growth to communities’ changing ethnic composition was much smaller than that of either Latino or non-Latino population. This finding runs counter to the belief that immigration from Mexico and Latin America is the chief cause of demographic change in rural California. Immigration is only a part of the cause of Latino concentration in rural places. These results differ from those obtained by Allensworth and Rochin (1996) using a more specific sample of places. They found that in agricultural places that were at least 15 percent Latino in 1980, non-Latino population loss contributed twice as much to ethnic transformation as did Latino population growth. Because almost all places in that sample were experiencing growing Latino population, it was non-Latino population growth and loss that determined which places experienced larger relative growth in Latino concentration. These different results allow some insight into the process of ethnic transformation. In areas that have smaller percentages of Latino residents, Latino population growth brings about differentiation in ethnic composition between places. Once a region becomes substantially Latino, so that most places have a substantial Latino population, non-Latino population loss has a larger differentiating effect on ethnic composition than does Latino population growth. Focusing on changing ethnicity, however, obscures the fact that it is actually concentration of people of like economic status that is occurring. Anglos and wealthier Latinos are moving away from farmworker communities. Foreign-bom Latinos are moving to places with more affordable housing, regardless of the ethnic composition of the place. N on-Latino, Latino, and Foreign-bom Population Growth Community ethnicity was affected by growth in non-Latino, Latino, and foreign- bom population. Factors that were hypothesized to affect each type of population growth included agricultural restructuring, housing availability and costs, prior ethnic composition, and f hypo Agni POPL restr P0P1 large type agri the : deer fan- em; resi shil inte the set inc. ex; job P01 tha POj 130 and family growth. Each are discussed below, followed by an integration of the hypotheses into a model explaining the cyclical process of ethnic transformation. Agricultural and Industrial Restructuring It was hypothesized that agricultural restructuring had led to growth in foreign-born population through demand for low-wage labor (Hypothesis 1.1). One type of agricultural restructuring-agricultural intensification--did predict both Latino and foreign-born population growth. Other changes in agricultural employment-—shifts from small-scale to large-scale farming, and growth in the number of agricultural jobs, were not related to any type of population growth. These results differ from those of Taylor and Martin (1996), who found that more agricultural jobs brought about foreign-born population growth. However, they measured the number of agricultural jobs by the number of agricultural workers, ignoring the decreasing amount of work that individual workers are able to obtain. Separating jobs and farm payrolls from the number of agricultural workers shows that more agricultural employment does not necessarily lead to greater settlement of Latinos and foreign-born residents. Instead, Latino and foreign-born population grew in places in which agriculture shifted to more high-profit, labor-intensive crops. This is consistent with qualitative interviews in which farmworkers, and peOple originally from farmworker families, noted the availability of year-round agricultural work as one of the primary reasons they chose to settle in the area. It is not the amount of agricultural work that is available that attracts low- income Latino settlement, but the pipe of work (year-round versus seasonal). This explains the growing settlement of Latino farmworkers despite increasing competition for jobs, and conversely, the greater competition for jobs in places with growing farmworker population. Competition does not slow settlement because it is the up; of work, rather than the amount of work, that promotes farmworker settlement. Agricultural restructuring was also hypothesized to have led to loss of non-Latino population. However, the quantitative analyses found no relationship between restr smtrl little agrit by a of n thes em; em} gait lew fou enc fur. me the har grt is l Spl grt rel be "ba “VJ-"r' -"- e: ‘ 131 restructuring and non-Latino population growth. Qualitative interviews showed that only a small proportion of Anglo residents worked in agriculture, so changes in agriculture had little effect on the population growth Of this group. Those Anglos who did work in agriculture often owned the farm on which they worked, so their job would not be affected by agricultural restructuring. Job and wage growth, and wages in 1980, were hypothesized to encourage growth of non-Latino, Latino, and foreign-born population (Hypotheses 1.3 and 1.4). Neither of these hypotheses were confirmed. While people move to flag where they can find employment, their plac_e Of residence is not necessarily the same as their place of employment. In regions that experienced job and wage growth, some places might have gained population, but other places lost pOpulation. Higher wages and employment levels might have attracted people to move into the region, but higher wages and employment levels could also have given people the opportunity to move out Of communities that they found less desirable. It could be that the variables used in the quantitative analyses were not specific enough to capture the effects Of job and wage growth on population growth, especially for foreign-born population. Immigrants’ labor migration is often limited by their restricted means of gathering information on employment (Sassen 1995). More Specific analysis of the types Of employment and the actual social networks that exist among immigrants might have led to different conclusions. The one employment variable that did predict population growth, agricultural intensification, reflects a change in a specific type Of employment that is held almost exclusively by foreign-born Latinos. It could be because these jobs are specifically targeted for low-wage Latino workers that foreign-born and Latino population grew throughout areas eXperiencing this type Of restructuring. Alternatively, agricultural intensification may be the only significant employment- related predictor of population growth simply because the low-wage workers who would be attracted to agricultural jobs have fewer settlement Options available to them than high- incc P0P diffr ava: hav hou con gro [OW Pol res of 1 ap; aff Cllt P0] hOl 6X] inc 132 income individuals. It has been suggested that job and wage growth did not predict population growth because people’s IDLE of settlement is determined by factors that are different from those that influence their Ego—n of settlement (i.e., quality Of life versus job availability). Regional growth in the permanent settlement of agricultural workers might have affected all places within the region as workers settled wherever they could find housing. This would include "doubling up" in Older housing in non-farmworker communities, or finding newer low—income housing in farmworker communities. Regional growth Of Anglo or middle-class workers would not increase the population in Mexican towns because Anglos and middle-class Latinos would not settle there. TO the contrary, regional growth in higher-paying jobs might encourage people with rising incomes to move out of poorer communities. Housing Hypothesis 1.5 predicted that housing growth would predict all three types Of population growth. In the quantitative analyses housing growth was the strongest predictor Of each. The importance Of housing also came through in interviews with community residents and government Officials. People moved to places where they could find the type Of housing in which they were interested. Farrnworkers moved to places with affordable apartments and houses, while Anglo residents moved to places with larger homes and more affluent neighbors. City governments used housing subsidies and controls to either encourage or discourage low-income and higher-income population growth. In contrast, housing _(_3_(_)_S§ variables did not predict either Latino or foreign-born pOpulation growth. Non-Latino population grew more rapidly in places with increasing housing prices. Prices might have grown because of the demand for housing in places experiencing non-Latino population growth. At the same time, qualitative interviews indicated that many Anglos were moving to places with new high-income neighborhoods. While housing growth was more important than housing costs in predicting all types of population growth, interviews suggested that housing affordability was very imp fan resr are: hat an: La! Fu: of b0} 80 pet for prt liv bo 133 important for most peOple’s settlement decisions. This was especially true among farmworkers. The importance of housing growth for predicting population growth could result because housing growth tends to increase the availability of affordable housing. In areas where there is a housing shortage, any type of housing growth can increase the availability of low- or moderate-income housing. Established residents move into the new houses and apartments, thereby freeing up old housing. Therefore, the overall costs of housing may rise at the same time that more housing becomes available at low-income levels. This explains the lack of significant housing cost variables. Ethnic Composition in 1980 Hypothesis 1.6 prOposed that non-Latino population lo_ss was greater in places that had larger concentrations of foreign-born residents, due to ethnic conflict. Quantitative analyses showed that places with more foreign-born residents in 1980 lost more non- Latinos, while places with fewer foreign-born residents gained more non—Latinos. Furthermore, controlling for foreign-born population growth, Iatino population also grew at smaller rates in places with greater proportions of foreign-born residents in 1980. Both of these phenomena are consistent with qualitative interviews which revealed that U.S.- bom Latinos and Anglos preferred living in places with smaller farmworker populations. Some based their decisions to leave Mexican towns, or to not settle in them, on their unease around Mexicans, feelings of prejudice, or feelings of being an “outsider.” More Often, peOple cited concerns about community deterioration that they associated with the farmworker population as motivation for moving out Of their neighborhood, or not settling in the Mexican town. Political conflict between “farmworker/salad bowl” and “business/melting pot” perspectives in places with larger foreign-born pOpulations also prompted people to leave. In contrast, Latino immigrants were more ambivalent about living in places with smaller percentages of foreign—bom residents, as these places held both advantages and disadvantages for them. plat resi wet Wt res: EXI eth Ex P0? ea the de de Sl In Or 134 Size of Place It was proposed in Hypothesis 1.8 that places that were larger or that served a larger geographical area had experienced higher levels Of population growth than other places. This was not found to be the case in the quantitative analyses. In interviews, local residents suggested that some places might be attracting people because they were large, or were located near highways that connected them to large cities or recreational areas. Some Woodlake residents, for example, suggested that Exeter held an advantage for attracting residents by being slightly closer than Woodlake to Visalia. However, Woodlake and Exeter experienced the same population growth rates from 1980 to 1990, although the ethnic composition Of this growth was distinct. Furthermore, places closer to Visalia than Exeter, such as Farmersville and Ivanhoe, did not experience the growth in Anglo population that Exeter experienced. While businesses are centralizing due to increasing ease of transportation, the ease of commuting makes it less necessary for people to live in the place in which they are employed. Future studies might examine the degree Of business development by both size of place and ethnic composition. This study only examined the development of people within places, rather than characteristics of places themselves. Family Qrowth Growth in family size also did not predict population growth, contrary to Hypothesis 1.9. This variable was negatively correlated with foreign-born population growth, but the causal relationship is more likely the reverse Of that hypothesized. Recent immigrants are less likely to have children living with them in the United States than are U.S.-bom Latinos, so places with more growth in foreign-born population experienced smaller growth in family size. Cyclical Model pt Ethnic Tpanstormation The process Of ethnic transformation can be seen as a cycle of two simultaneously- occurring phases. (See Figure 26, below.) In the first phase, the existence of labor- intensive employment attracts foreign-born Latino workers, either through recruitment or 'n‘fl ~~_.-.o. - - wort com avai WOl mid (det bets nur Lat use em the \ K25? H #3 X's ~'._....- - 135 word-of-mouth. If employment is available year-round, migrant workers settle in communities in which they can find affordable housing. Where affordable housing is not available, they find means to make it affordable, such as “doubling up.” The availability of workers, in turn, encourages further intensification of agricultural employment. In the second phase, settlement Of foreign-born residents prompts Anglo and middle-class Latino emigration through perceptions of decreased community well-bein g (deteriorating housing, crowded schools, lowered public safety), increased conflict between “farmworker” and middle—class perspectives, and ill-ease at the presence of greater numbers Of Mexicans. Middle-class emigration, in turn, encourages further settlement Of Latino immigrants, through the greater availability of housing that can be divided up and used to house greater numbers of individuals and families. It also encourages further emigration of middle-class residents through a lowering of community SES, and, therefore, perceptions Of greater deterioration in the community. Perceived - Community Ag 11¢.me Deterioration: ten srficatron *H 0 using *Scho 01s I *Safety Unequal - _ Economic ngrin * Opportunities: - Mex ico—U .S. Latmo N on- Settlement Ethnic Conflictw (Prej udbe) J Hispanic White Emigration Affordable Housin g Latino Concentration (Ethnic Transformation) Figure 26. Cyclical Model Of Ethnic Transformation Q01 Iwc rep CdU clu we affl P0] stn int C0? 136 Community Economic Development It was hypothesized that the economic conditions of places could be divided into two distinct scales, one representing wealth (income, income from wealth), and another representing economic health (lower poverty and unemployment levels, higher levels of education). Factor analysis, however, showed that all of the socio-economic variables clustered together as measures of the overall economic health of places. Therefore, they were analyzed as one group. These economic conditions where hypothesized to have been affected by agricultural restructuring, job and wage growth, immigration, non-Latino population growth, prior levels of community capital, community size, and changing age structure in the community. Each are discussed below, followed by an analysis and integration of the theories hypothesized to explain both ethnic transformation and community economic development. Agricultural Restructuring. Job and Wage Growth, and Immigration Agricultural restructuring was not found to affect community economic development, although this was proposed in Hypotheses 2.1 and 2.2. However, regional job and wage growth were predictive of community economic well-being. Places that were located in regions experiencing job and wage growth experienced higher levels of economic development. As hypothesized, the effects of these variables varied by the extent of foreign-born population growth, as described in the next paragraph. It was also hypothesized that the effects of job and wage growth on economic development would vary by the extent of non-Latino pOpulation growth, but this was not found to be the case. It was hypothesized (Hypothesis 2.3) that places which experienced more growth in foreign~bom population experienced lower levels of community development. [.3 137 Controlling for regional job growth, this was true. However, the effect of foreign-born population growth on community development was moderated by the growth of employment and wages in the area. Places that experienced growth in both immigration and in jobs experienced the highest degree of economic development. This is consistent with studies which have found that immigration loosens human resource constraints, allowing for economic growth, as well as providing a market for local business expansion. Furthermore, job growth reduces the negative economic impacts generally associated with immigration - increased job competition and wage depression leading to poverty, unemployment and low wages. From the opposite perspective, places that experienced growth in foreign born pOpulation without job growth experienced declining economic conditions among residents. This explains contradictory findings in previous studies which have shown that immigration can both increase and decrease economic development. The interaction between wage growth and immigration was in the opposite direction of that between job growth and immigration. In places that experienced both growing wages and growing immigration, immigration reduced the beneficial impacts of wage growth, while wage growth amplified the negative impacts of immigration. This indicates increasing inequality between U.S.-bom and foreign-born residents. Wage growth did not “trickle down” to the lowest-paid workers (i.e., immigrants). Furthermore, higher wages among native workers allowed them to more easily to move away from places with larger foreign-born populations, further reducing economic development in Mexican towns. U.S.-Bom Latino and Anglo Pogulation Growth Hypotheses 2.4 and 2.5 proposed that Latino pOpulation growth would be associated with lower levels of economic development, while non-Latino population growth would be associated with higher levels of economic development. Only the second hypothesis was confirmed. Latino population growth itself did not increase or decrease economic development, controlling for growth in foreign-born population. On average, the economic position of U.S.~bom Latinos is between that of Anglos and immigrants, as their c01 err La do me Q by de prl hi; [)6 hi. 138 occupation may range from highly-paid business people, professionals and labor contractors, to poorly paid seasonal workers in packing houses or service industry employees. Non-Latinos tend to be wealthier community members, so growth in non- Latino population brings economic growth, while loss of non-Latinos brings economic decline. This trend was noted by people in rural California, and this is one of the reasons many people preferred to live in places with higher proportions of Anglos. Financial, Human, and Social Capital Places that started out, in 1980, with higher levels of income and education were hypothesized to have experienced high levels of community development over the next decade in Hypotheses 2.6 and 2.7, respectively. Income levels in 1980 were not found to predict economic development over the next decade. However, human capital levels were highly predictive of community economic development. Places in which a larger percentage of the adult population had at least a high school education in 1980 experienced more economic development from 1980 to 1990 than did places with smaller percentages of high school graduates. Since foreign-born Latinos are much less likely to have a high school education than are U.S.-bom individuals, this means that communities with larger percentages of farmworkers in 1980 experienced lower levels of community development than other places. Therefore, this could be an indicator of underclass conditions in some places. Places in which few adults have high school degrees probably have concurrent problems with low-incomes and poverty, requiring a greater demand on the community for social services and programs that address poverty-related problems in crime prevention/control, education, and health care. However, because mean wages in 1980 were not associated with community development, the effect of human capital cannot be attributed solely to greater demands of a low-income population. As discussed in the qualitative section, places in which relatively fewer residents have higher levels of education have fewer educated residents from which community leadership can develop. They also have fewer resi bus prc ver h01 ec< lex su: or; --_-.-_.._ ---. ‘-- ..K'JL - «- via. w aha-4%.. .n‘ ‘ '3' 139 residents with the knowledge and networks who can establish more successful local businesses. It was also proposed that places with high levels of social capital experienced a larger degree of economic development, although a quantitative hypothesis was not proposed since such data were not available. Qualitative interviews showed that both vertical social capital (networks between communities and higher levels of government) and horizontal social capital (networks within communities) were influential in community economic development. Local government officials who had made connections with higher levels of government were more successful at bringing in grants for their community in such areas as housing, unemployment, and crime prevention. Communities in which organizations such as government, business, and the schools cooperated were able to produce facilities and programs for the community that were absent in other places. In places with overt conflict, it was difficult to execute projects for enhancing community life and economic development. Social capital between people of differing economic and ethnic groups also affected human capital attainment of residents. Children of farmworkers who made connections with middle-class or more highly educated role models or mentors.(either as children or as adults) achieved higher levels of education than their peers, and became actively involved as community leaders. However, because inter-economic-group networks are rare, peOple in farmworker communities were less likely to receive training and mentorship in community leadership, so that places that lost their middle-class residents experienced a sudden decline in community leaders. S ize of Place and Age Structure The size of places in 1980 did not predict economic development as proposed in Hypothesis 2.8. However, as economic development was measured through economic characteristics of residents (i.e., income, poverty, education), rather than the Characteristics of city governments or businesses (i.e., city revenues, number of businesses), it seems like Iha dis bUS les 6C1 CO' CC de pc '5‘ ' 'w'k—n we.._~ -‘ a! 1’ ‘- _. ..__... --‘ . :w ‘- 140 likely that larger places might have experienced more growth in revenues from businesses that offer goods and services to the public. People in all of the communities under study discussed problems competing with larger cities for such markets. However, other businesses, such as manufacturing, home-work, and wholesale firms, might have been less likely to locate in larger cities due to greater costs in land and taxes, off-setting other types of business growth. Future research might investigate this. Regardless, the economic status of residents did not change at different rates in larger versus smaller communities. Growth in the percentage of children in the community was also unrelated to overall economic development (Hypothesis 2.9). However, separate analyses of community development measures did reveal that places with larger gains in the percentage of residents who were under the age of 18 experienced smaller income growth and larger growth in poverty rates. Integrated Theoretical Model of Ethnic Transformation and Economic DeveIOpment This dissertation proposed to develop an integrated theoretical model of the causes and consequences of ethnic transformation and economic development in rural communities in California. Given the complexity of the processes occurring, this model is presented in various components, showing the processes affecting: 1) foreign-born and U.S.-born Latino settlement in communitiesf 2) the development of internal core/periphery relations or uneven economic development; and 3) the economic development of communities. World Systems theory was posed to provide a macro-framework within which economic-rational theories would articulate more specific processes. From a World Systems perspective, the continual grth of foreign-born Latinos in California was explained as a result of the uneven economic status between Mexico and the United States, and the history of labor migration between the two countries. Immigration is increasing because of the lack of economic alternatives in Mexico, in the context of labor migration networks, and the restructuring of labor in the United States to take advantage of the pl m— 1“ 141 economic inequalities between the countries. Legal distinctions between workers from outside of the United States, as well as ethnic distinctions based on the historical legacy of labor migration between the United States and Mexico, allow for differential exploitation of workers based on their national origin, and their documentation status. Other studies have noted the importance of wage differentials within the context of historical patterns of migration for explaining individuals’ migration decisions (e.g., see Massey and Espinosa 1995). This study supports these findings. Qualitative interviews revealed universal expectations that immigration will continue, despite increased competition for agricultural jobs in California, as long as economic opportunities are even lower in Mexico than they are in the United States. For this reason, immigration is seen as a perpetual source of population growth for rural communities. However, while core—peripheral differences between Mexico/Central America and the United States explain the continuation of immigration, they do not explain uneven patterns of foreign-born population growth and changing ethnic composition within the United States. It was hypothesized that neoclassical economic models, including theories on social capital and agricultural restructuring, could predict such patterns, in that people move to places where they can maximize their economic opportunities. It is in this manner that core-periphery relations between nations are recreated as internal core-periphery relations. Individuals from the periphery move to the core out of economic necessity, or to gain economic advantage. Their place of settlement is based on the economic conditions of various places. This includes opportunities for higher-paying, more stable jobs than available elsewhere, but it also includes intangible forms of economic support, such as social capital provided through networks, and opportunities to gain human67 and political capital.68 —_ 67 Some immigrants noted the better educational opportunities for their children in the United States and in rural areas as one motivating factor in settling in their place 0f residence. 68 By political capital I am referring to Opportunities to acquire residency and citizenship status in the United States. This can be seen as a form of social capital in that it involves membership in a group CX dll fii 142 In fact, at the community level, intangible forms of capital were found to be more important for predicting population growth than were tangible forms of capital. Contrary to expectations, regional job and wage growth, including growth in agricultural employment, did not predict population growth at the community level. Although individual people move to areas where they have employment Opportunities and social connections, these findings suggest that their specific place of settlement depends on other factors, such as perceptions of community life and the type of housing that is available. Job and wage growth explain regional migration patterns, but are less informative at the community level. Nevertheless, several economic-maximization variables did predict population growth. Social capital theory, for example, predicts that social networks influence migration as people move to places where they can receive economic advantage (e.g., information, financial assistance) from people whom they know. As noted in qualitative interviews, people move to regions where they have friends and relatives, both for emotional and financial support, and because they have heard of opportunities for jobs and housing through them. Agricultural intensification, representing changes in the gag of employment available, rather than the quantity, also predicted Latino and foreign-born population growth. The availability of year-round employment in an area makes it possible and economically-rational for people to settle in that area. This employment variable might have been significant when others were not because it represents employment targeted to a specific group -- foreign-born Latino workers, and because the workers attracted to these jobs have few settlement options due to their low-incomes. Furthermore, many U.S.-bom Latinos had greater economic opportunities in places experiencing Latino immigration. Those people with networks in the immigrant community who had the human and financial capital to take advantage of the growing immigrant population were able to deve10p _ (legally documented US. residents and citizens). However, this form of capital has also been distinguished as a particular form of capital that allows access to financial resources (see Rumbaut 1995). 143 profitable businesses or careers. Housing availability also predicted population growth. People moved to places where housing was available in the price range and neighborhood that they desired among all ethnic groups. Therefore, while Dependency Theory explains growing and continuing Latino immigration to the United States, economic-rational factors -- the availability of year round jobs for immigrant workers, social networks, and affordable housing explain which communities experienced Latino settlement. At the same time, Dependency Theory allows for the interpretation of these economic—rational factors in the context of the political and social divisions between people. Foreign-bom Latinos are forced to work at increasingly unstable jobs in “core” areas, such as California, because of the political divisions that have been set up between countries, and the varying levels of documentation status obtained by workers. These restrictions limit their political and social capital and, therefore, their options for jobs and housing. U.S.—born Latinos are primarily the children of foreign-born Latinos, and have grown up as ethnic minorities whose parents were constrained in the jobs and housing available and were less able to give them opportunities for higher levels of education and development of social networks with members of high-SES groups. They are, therefore, also limited in their economic opportunities by their limited educational attainment, their lack of social connections with high-SES individuals and groups, and greater difficulties in society based on their ethnic status (i.e., others’ prejudice, and their own unease at cultural and economic differences). However, many U.S.—born Latinos are also in a unique social position between U.S.-bom non-Latinos and foreign-born Latinos, allowing for economic options unavailable to Anglos or foreign-born Latinos. Figure 27 displays these complex dynamics, separating national, regional, and local community factors that influence the process of ethnic transformation. hr “." “‘J‘.» REGIONAL Job and Wage .. Growth ' Foreign-80m Viiniri‘o‘iNAUl ii ¥iFLO0AL " Networks between established ‘ L Latino residents and newcomers Uneven ' . _. _, . Economic Historical 3,, LDivefpment: Development “ aln- merica 0f UHS - Latlno a - ‘ 'ili . 5 - Latin lmmioration Foreign-30m U.S.-§om ‘ Latino Latino American Settlement Settlement Economic _ Relations Housing Availability Figure 27. Integrated Model of Latino Settlement While ethnic transformation in rural California is generally blamed on growing immigration, the permanent settlement of foreign-born workers in rural communities actually has only a small direct effect on community ethnic composition. Native residents make up a much larger proportion of the population, so the movement of native residents has a larger effect on ethnic composition. However, immigration indirectly affects community ethnic composition by prompting the emigration of established residents. Immigration brings people from the periphery into communities in the core, recreating core~ periphery relations within core communities. The unequal economic status between community residents encourages exodus of wealthier community members as they seek to minimize their part in the economic and social costs associated with the growing low— income population. This leads to a partial recreation of core-periphery differences between communities, as well as within them. As those people who profit from the low—income population move to wealthier areas, the economically vulnerable population becomes more concentrated in poor areas. As predicted by Dependency Theory, the poorer places (farmworker towns) become increasingly poor relative to wealthier places because the peep] \veah Stan: have COllll imm recei towr espe com Lan ethr. beir P0P resi moi resi resi fan bor P0] cor CO] 145 people who live in these towns contribute to the economic development of people in the wealthier places. Over time, core/periphery relations between Mexico/Central America and the United States, and the migration of workers to the United States from Mexico/Central America, have developed an ethnic/economic structure in which Anglos tend to be wealthier community members, U.S.-bom Latinos, who are mostly the descendants of Mexican immigrants, hold middle economic positions, and the poorest community members are recent immigrants. Therefore, when wealthier community members leave farmworker towns, farmworker towns become more Latino because wealthier community members, especially those who leave, are more likely to be Anglo. This leaves farmworker communities increasingly economically and ethnically distinct, as pockets of low-income Latino population. The important role of Anglo population in determining both community ethnicity and economic health explains why correlations of community economic well— being variables with community ethnicity are stronger than those with the percentage of the population that is foreign-born. Places that are more Anglo are less Latino, and they have residents who are wealthier, on average, than residents of more-Latino communities. The movement of wealthier community members out of farmworker towns is moderated, however, by the social networks that established residents have with new residents. It is partially because of the lack of social ties between U.S.- and foreign-born residents that U.S.-bom residents are moving to places with smaller percentages of farmworkers, exacerbating economic and ethnic differences between places. Those U .S.- born residents who have family and friendship networks with the growing foreign-born population are more likely to stay in farmworker communities. They not only feel comfortable with the new pOpulation, but they also may feel obligated to stay in the community. Many U.S.-born Latinos who lived in Mexican towns noted that the responsibility they felt towards their family and community kept them there, despite economic opportunities elsewhere. Mexicans score particularly high on measures of fami Thes restr offer purs indii run me than COIT. Fig soc pla Eq] ha‘ 146 familism-—the sense of obligation and orientation one has to the family (Rumbaut 1995). These feelings of obligation highlight one way in which social capital can simultaneously restrict, as well as enhance, the economic mobility of individuals. Tight family networks offer economic and emotional support, but more successful members are restricted from pursuing opportunities that could interfere with their family responsibilities.69 While the individual’s economic mobility is restrained, the family and community benefit by the retention of wealthier community members. Figure 28 displays the processes leading to uneven development within and between places. This diagram is substantially different than the other models presented in this dissertation as the final outcome variable is neither community economic development nor community ethnic transformation. , , ,. _ - {V ’ ' . REGIONAL LOCAL ocial Networks Between Established ‘ - , Residents & Newcomers (Core & Foreign- , Uneven ,_ . . Born 3f”? Development _.Penphery Res’denf’l Population (Internal ’ Increased ,5 ~ Growth Core- ' ‘5 Economic Costs Loss Of ,_ Uneven ——P Periphery) —.—-b for Established Wealthier ‘ « ' Development F‘ (See " / Vlfilhrnn . (Core) (Core)* Between Igure 27) I, 1, Communities ‘ Residents fin: Residents ' " Communities Figure 28. Integrated Model of the Development of Internal Core—Periphery Relationships The economic differences between places are amplified by differences in mean social and human capital held by community residents. Social Capital Theory predicts that places with greater connections among community members should have larger, and more equal, economic development. As predicted, in places in which the governmental leaders have ties with the farmworker community, leaders are more likely to invest in programs 69 See Portes and Sensenbrenner (1993) for a more thorough discussion of the contradictory nature of social that How capi the i capi witl con soci pro dec cor CCC edi dei 147 that help low income community members and encourage even economic development. However, this is just one form of horizontal social capital: intra-class horizontal social capital. Horizontal social capital, in general, can be high in wealthy communities without the involvement of the poorest community residents. Higher levels of horizontal social capital are associated with greater overall economic development since leaders in towns with broad connections among community organizations can more easily initiate community projects. In places in which conflict is high (e.g., because of large gaps in social networks among different segments of the community), economic development is impaired because community leaders have more difficulty implementing projects. Social and political divisions between groups based on ethnicity (Latino versus Anglo), place of birth (US-born versus foreign-born), citizenship status, and occupation (business leader, professional, or farmworker/packing house employee) legitimize exclusion from shared decision~mal ., , , - . r ‘ Growth t: Class and ‘ ' ’ VertécaIISclicral , - ' zit?- Wealthy (Core) ' - ' increasing uneven apia , Community W Residents \ economic relations V W ' an, Economic (See . within Human Capital {,5 Development Figure 28) communities/ . V ’- V it} £323, , , \ lnternaICore- HorizontaISocral , e Grthh in oreign- Periphery ' , Capital g”: M Born and Latino . . (See Figure 28) » ,2 Intra-Class . , Economic (Periphery) 1Horrzontal Social j Development Residents “W“ '” - i ‘ Capital W _ , .. (See Figure 27) ~ ’ ‘ I ( Vim“ Figure 29. Integrated Model of Community Economic Development gro alrr Asi "M cor the pre COl be: wa inr an an CS CC . .__ . .. . - - .-- . -_, ‘ ’. .: . . V -L-an-u- L -““ “Wham” W'; ."" .4, _,- _ _ . -- - 149 The Future of Rural Communities in California The Latino population in most of California's rural communities will continue to grow throughout the next decade. Places that are currently 80 to 90 percent Latino will be almost 100 percent Latino in the near future. Residents who are not Latino will mostly be Asian. Non-Hispanic white residents are not moving into communities that are considered "Mexican towns," even if they find employment in these places. Ethnically-mixed communities will also experience growing percentages of Latinos over the next decade, but the ethnic change will be slower than it has been in those communities that are now predominantly Hispanic. N on-Latinos continue to move into the ethnically-mixed communities, along with Latinos. There is reason to be pessimistic about the future of Califomia’s colonias as they become increasingly composed of larger percentages of low-income residents. In many ways Califomia’s rural colonias are coming to resemble impoverished urban “barrios” and inner city underclass areas ( e.g., see Manta 1976 and Wilson 1987). Manta (1976) makes an analogy between Third World underdeveloped colonies and large city Chicano barrios. He suggests that economic exploitation is the cause of economic underdevelopment in the barrio, an exploitation created by the “forced or self—imposed physical and psychological segregation (p. 35).” The surrounding socioeconomic system does nothing to correct for discrimination and exploitation which increase over time with greater concentration. Wilson’s theory of underclass formation is similar, in that he sees continuous immigration as a threat to all minority group members through increased competition for jobs, housing, and services, and by reinforcement of stereotypes perceived by dominant “outsiders.” In essence, colonias are places where cheap raw material (labor) is extracted from the community and used by agribusiness in the production of goods and services. The outmigration of wealthier community members leads to increasing isolation of the poorest members of the Latino community incr ecor con as it beti sun go low we; tax per in c pro' Fur intr fan fan mo‘ and incr “we“; Lfif'.".“.-I .;: “Liz-- f....-..:..... M .- . 150 As in urban underclass areas, the population in Mexican towns is becoming increasingly ethnically and economically homogenous, consisting primarily of the most economically disadvantaged members of the Latino community. As in urban areas, this concentration has as much to do with the emigration of middle class and wealthy residents as it does with the immigration of poorer residents. There are also geographic similarities between Mexican towns and inner cities. Economically poor inner cities are often surrounded by wealthier suburbs from which they get little tax revenue. Similarly, wealthy growers, and middle-class residents who like the country, live on ranches around Mexican towns, while poorer people live inside the city limits. While the county gets taxes from the wealthier people, the Mexican towns do not get property taxes, and they receive little sales tax revenue, since people generally shop in larger communities. Therefore, there is reason to fear that social problems associated with urban poverty, such as crime, family disorganization, and overburdened schools, will also grow ‘ : in colonias. While this study did not focus on these issues, there was evidence that these problems are becoming a greater concern in Mexican towns than in the past.70 Furthermore, because the income potential and the stability of farrnwork are declining, intragenerational economic mobility may be smaller among currentflgenerations of farmworkers than among previous generations. Given the increasing isolation of farmworkers from middle-class schools, resources, and networks, intergenerational mobility may also decline. If so, farmworker communities could face increasing frustration and conflict among youth, and between U.S.-bom and foreign—bom residents, leading to increasing problems in community development. 70 e.g., Gangs exist in all of the communities under study, but at this point they are predominantly “wanna- be” gangs rather than city gangs. Interviews suggested that a substantial number of families were experiencing the equivalent of single-parent families as one spouse migrated for work or abandoned the family. In the schools, there was an over-representation of children from farmworker towns in “home Study,” a program in which students get little contact with teachers, and from which only a small percent uate. thei kno may will plat pen ethi stat ecc Me cor ad( lie 60 thr CC 151 At the same time, rural places also differ from inner-city neighborhoods in both their size and their governance. Because they are smaller, people may be more likely to know their neighbors and look out for each other. Because most are self-goveming, they may be better able to develop programs to address residents’ needs than are neighborhoods within larger, more heterogeneous, cities. There may also be advantages for Latinos in places that are mostly Latino. While these places may be poorer than those with a greater percentage of Anglos, Latino residents may face less direct prejudice, there may be less ethnic conflict in the community, and Latinos may have greater opportunities for higher status positions in local government, social organizations, and businesses. Rising Latino Power: Implications for the Economic Development of Colonias There is hope that as ethnic transitions stabilize and political conflict settles, economic development will improve in Mexican towns. As second and third generation Mexican-Americans increasingly become economic and political leaders in Latino communities, the needs of farmworkers and other, low-income Latinos may be better addressed so that inequality is decreased while economic development grows. However, given continuing immigration from Mexico/Latino America, the continuing dependence of Mexican towns on the unstable income of farmworkers, and the continual loss of more highly-educated community members, Mexican towns may also become increasingly isolated, economically vulnerable low-income areas. In general, economic inequality between ethnic groups widens with increasing minority group concentration (Frisbie and Neidert 1977). However, it has been hypothesized that increasing minority group concentration can have positive, as well as negative, effects on the economic status of minority group members. Positive and negative economic outcomes of growing minority population include: ”increasing minority power, through which minority community members achieve protective legislation and policies for members of their ethnic group; 2) overflow of minority group members into higher economic positions, as they develop enclave economies or fill in positions vacated by the set sta of bil 56¢ 10‘ re] 0U lei thi W‘ CC 2‘ -.. -.~ .. ...., 1.. ——w-- ‘ht—u. .;,_.,.‘pu~¢.-_'~~ - 152 majority group members; 3) increasing discrimination by the majority ethnic population, as they become defensive of their own position; and 4) economic subordination of the minority group, resulting from increased competition for jobs and resources within a segmented labor market (Tienda and Lii 1987). Each of these processes has occurred in rural California. Continuing immigration from Mexico/Latin America has brought about stagnant wages and increasing unemployment among low-income Latino workers, a sign of economic subordination. Defensive discrimination can be seen in the fight against bilingual education and government services for foreign-born residents, as well as the movement of middle-class residents out of Mexican towns. Economic overflow can be seen through Latino possession of professional positions and businesses in both Mexican towns and Anglo/mixed communities. Latinos have also achieved greater political power, winning battles for services for Latino immigrants and their families, and achieving Latino representation in areas of political importance. The question arises whether the positive effects of increasing Latino concentration outweigh the negative effects. At this point, places that are ethnically more Latino are much less affluent than are places that are less Latino, and their quality of life is perceived to be much lower than that of ethnically-mixed places. Increasing Latino concentration has led to greater isolation from middle—class resources. These disadvantages may diminish with decreasing conflict as communities become almost completely Latino. Places which are mostly Latino may become better places to live, especially for immigrant farmworkers, if the new economic and political power structure better meets their needs. However, this will be difficult for most places, as discussed in the following sections on rising Latino economic and political power. (I Be co to bu SU cl: be se CC 'T- 1'2: ‘. ;~‘;.‘-‘vnipv.to _ :H w—i .e. -~ » 153 Rising Latino Economic Power The most important population in this area, which nobody realizes, is the 2nd and 3rd generation Hispanics. They have filled in the middle class. They're the business owners, the insurance people. They ’re friendly with both the whites and the immigrants (Anglo Male Anglo town resident). Mexican-Americans are regarded as the rising middle-class in rural California. Because they have higher levels of education, and a knowledge of the culture of the community, they are uniquely advantaged to develop businesses in farmworker communities. There is hope that the quality of life in Mexican towns will improve as businesses develop to meet the needs of the growing foreign-born population, and as successful business owners choose to remain in the community in which they grew up. In general, interviews showed that business people in Mexican towns (both Anglo and Latino) were more likely to live in the community in which they worked than were professional people. Middle-class Latinos were more likely to live in Mexican towns than were middle- class Anglos. As more Latinos become successful business owners and professionals, the middle-class pOpulation of Mexican towns might also rise, improving the econonric well- being of the community. Furthermore, as Latinos become successful entrepreneurs, and as second and third generation Latinos take professional positions in farmworker communities, there will be a rising class of peOple with roots in the farmworker community who can push for greater services for foreign-born residents, and who can serve as role models to younger generations. However, in most colonias it may be overly optimistic to expect a rising middle-class to develop and restore economic viability. Given the low-incomes of most community members, it may be unrealistic to hope for the development of many highly-profitable firms. All small communities are finding it increasingly difficult to maintain local businesses as people commute farther distances for goods and services. Because they serve a smaller clientele, prices are generally higher in small towns. In places with a substantial middle-class population, people may choose to support local businesses by 5hr [65 pri err bu be bu WE C0 CC 154 by paying higher prices. In Exeter, for example, established residents talked about shOpping in town whenever they could, in order to support local businesses. However, residents Who face tight economic constraints do not have the option of paying the higher prices in local stores. Therefore, businesses in places with more low-income residents might face tougher competition from larger cities. Saenz, Rochin, Hampton, and Calo (1995) found that rural Latino self-employment was highest in areas that were the most impoverished, and hypothesized that self- employment was a response to a lack of economic alternatives. They also found that businesses were less profitable in places with greater concentrations of Latinos. It might be because of the low profitability potential in colonias that more Latinos are able to open businesses, as there is less competition with chain stores and larger corporations for the less profitable market. One businessman in a Mexican town mentioned that little capital was needed for business development there because of the lack of competition with corporate chains that exists in larger cities. However, if the profitability of new businesses is restricted, there is less hope for these businesses to improve the economic climate of the community. Latin American immigrants get together on business ventures more than Mexican immigrants, same as Asian people (Male Latino Mexican town city employee). It is also doubtful that colonias can achieve an ethnic enclave economy. Enclave economies rely on specific forms of social capital within the ethnic community such as bounded solidarity (group-oriented, rather than self-oriented behavior) and enforceable trust (sanctions given by the community to ensure group-oriented behavior). These forms of social capital emerge more often in communities in which members face strong discrimination, where it is difficult to return to the host country, and where the community is resource-rich (Portes and Sensenbrenner 1993). In Mexican towns, most people are Latino, so there is less direct discrimination. Many Mexican immigrants return regularly to Mexico because of its close proximity. And, on average, Mexican communities have fewer eco: coir son gro the: 0th sat C01 155 economic rewards to offer members than do other ethnic groups. If the population of some colonias becomes increasingly composed of immigrants from Central America or Asia, some enclave economies may develop. However, it is doubtful that such enclaves will grow among the vast majority of Mexican towns, given the lack of elements that lead to their development. To the contrary, Mexican-American businesses are often very competitive with each other. In both Woodlake and Cutler/Orosi, people complained about business owners who sabotaged other local businesses, and who refused to participate in the local chamber of commerce and in local initiatives for enhancing business success.71 It is possible that these business owners resent the members of the chamber of commerce for personal reasons (e. g., they associate them with the economically dominant class), and that other businesses have put obstacles in their way. Regardless, the business viability of the community as a whole is lower than in places where businesses cooperate. In contrast, in Exeter, business owners were trying to patppgt other businesses that offered the same type of products, hoping that a larger number of like businesses would attract more people to shop there. 7‘ “If you go down there, for example, with the chamber of commerce and ask that guy who owns that market to repaint the building, he won’t do it. He says ‘I don’t care.’ Well, you’re hurting business. He says ‘good. Because when they leave I’ll buy them out cheaper.’ We had a honible time over there with people that went in and opened a flower shop. Flower shops have six, seven holidays a year where they make 80% of their profits. Every one of those holidays that came along, the guy that owns the service station across the street, for example, would rent his parking lot to street vendors that would sell the same product at half the price, right across the street” (Male Anglo county official). 156 Furthermore, economic mobility among Latinos also does not ensure decreasing inequality. The most successful entrepreneurs in Mexican towns--labor contractors, landlords and check cashers-—have become rich at the expense of the most vulnerable workers. While most people admit that contractors, landlords and check cashers provide a needed service, and they admire their economic success, they complain that their wealth comes out of the desperation of the poorest residents.”- There is also no guarantee that the most successful Latino entrepreneurs will remain in the community where their business is located. Like other, wealthier, community members businesses owners often choose to move to wealthier communities or ranch areas as it becomes economically feasible. Therefore, despite the movement of Latinos into higher economic positions in rural communities, it is doubtful that Mexican towns can catch up to the economic position of more-Anglo places. The low incomes of residents make it more difficult to sustain businesses. Those businesses that are most successful often increase economic inequality by taking advantage of the vulnerability of the economically-poorest residents. There is also no indication that colonias can foster successful enclave economies due to the particular conditions of Mexican immigration. Latino “overflow” into important economic positions is occurring, but the economic prospects of Mexican towns remain poor. _—_ 72 e.g., “The contractors are crooks. People pay $4 for a ride to work. But that's fair, because it would cost more than that to drive yourself if the work is far away” (Male Latino Orange Cove resident). “I've gone into houses full of mattresses-- 40 men in one place. A lot of the renters are illegals and they don't want to make waves. They pay $100-150 per mattress. Then they have to pay for meals, whether they want them or not, transportation, check cashing... They get taken advantage of and there's nothing they can do about it” (Male Anglo Mexican town city employee)- -“-~fifi 3551+..- — o A; 157 Rising Latino Political Power (Anglo city) has pockets of poverty that have been ignored. That hasn ’t changed at all. I think the poor people in (this city) here definitely receive more attention to their needs. We respect what they have to say about what they like in the city, and they set the agenda for the city. Cutler/Orosi, they belong to the county. The citizens don’t have any voice. They don ’t even understand that their civil rights exist. The campesinos there, the low income people, they don’t know the county supervisors. (And you don ’t think the supervisors reach out to them much?) No. You’ve got to have a very active, vocal group... (Male Latino Mexican town city ofi‘icial). Despite the lower levels of wealth and income in Mexican towns, they hold some advantages for low-income Latinos. Increasing concentration of farmworkers, and people from farmworker backgrounds, has brought about increased power among people with “farmworker” interests, as opposed to the traditional power of “rancher” and “business” interests. Policies for low-income, Spanish-speaking community members are more likely to be initiated in Mexican towns because: 1) immigrants are more likely to be recognized as legitimate community members; 2) community leaders are more likely to understand the needs of the low-income population; 3) there is a larger base of support for pro-fannworker policies; and 4) the need for pro—farmworker policies is greater than in mixed-income communities. The power structure looked at (this city) as a labor camp. I think they were happy that people would always be happy just to have jobs working on the crops. And keeping people ignorant, so they wouldn’t know there were other opportunities and never feel it. So, you would always have a labor force. The mentality is still there (Male Latino Mexican town city official). Traditionally, farmworkers have been seen as “guests” (i.e., guestworkers) in communities rather than as permanent residents-people that could leave if they were unhappy with their conditions. This perspective still exists, and can be seen in efforts to discourage immigration by decreasing the benefits and services available to immigrants. There is a belief that immigrants are satisfied with low-income unstable employment because conditions are so much worse in Mexico. However, while many established residents may believe that farmworkers are satisfied with their low incomes, farmworkers C0 of ~TC~107btflfV 158 who have been in the United States for many years actually compare their economic condition with that of other people in the United States. Many feel frustrated by their lack of economic mobility. From a farmworker perspective, the fact that economic conditions are worse in Mexico does not make conditions in the United States seem ideal, but means that there is little choice but to accept them. Many people interviewed for this study compared the position of farmworkers to those of slaves, complaining that established residents have a plantation mentality--they want bodies to do cheap labor, but they don’t want to address the needs of people who do that work.73 In places where the community leaders are, themselves, from farmworker families, foreign-born residents are more likely to be seen as a permanent part of the community.74 Community leaders who come from the farmworker community are also more likely to understand the needs of the foreign-born population, and to develop unique solutions to their problems. People without connections to the farmworker community are less likely to understand the ways in which farmworkers feel they are blocked from becoming full community members. In the Latino communities under study, for example, city and school staff were more likely to be bilingual than were staff in the Anglo/mixed communities. This made it much easier for people to get permits, pay bills, or discuss problems with city employees, and for parents to discuss the situation of their children with school staff. Many adults discussed efforts to begin or sustain recreational and social programs for the children in their community. Those with farmworker interests tried to plan activities that involved minimal costs to parents. During the economically-devastating 73 “It reminds me, do you remember the old movies of the slaves in the south” (Male Latino Orange Cove city official)? “Remember how they brought the ships full of black people to work. That’s how I see it. They want it for Mexicans but not for any other nationality. They want them to come and work, or get out. And that’s not right because they’re human beings” (Female Latina Mexican town resident). 74 e. g., One of the elementary school principals in a Mexican town remarked that the old school staff believed that children of farmworkers did not need to attain high levels of education because they would just become farmworkers or packing house employees themselves. They did not view their educational needs as they would the needs of other children: “The old staff asked what’s wrong with the kids becoming farmworkers. I said why not prepare them for whatever they want to be. If they want to be farmworkers, Why not be well-educated farm workers?” in m« de fa: CC .._ ._...._ A _. r._ 4.5.... . .ru-.\-J"’ -- _' .-.o.- 159 freeze of 1990, housing deteriorated faster as more people “doubled-up” and had less money to maintain their homes. Because of the greater problems with housing deterioration, some people felt it was time to crack down on housing codes. Leaders with a farmworker perspective, however, felt this was not the time to begin enforcing housing codes, since that would only increase people’s economic problems. They were more aware of the difficulties that people faced in low-income families. Growth of farmworker population also brings the needs of farmworker families to the attention of non-farmworkers. It is not just children of farmworkers who are initiating programs for farmworkers in Mexican towns. There are Anglos and Latinos from other backgrounds who have become aware of the needs of foreign-born residents and are actively trying to improve services to them.75 Because foreign-born residents make up a large share of the population in Mexican towns, their concerns have a higher priority, and people of all backgrounds who want to address their concerns have greater support. Still, a Latino majority in a rural community does not necessarily mean that low- income Latinos are well represented. While they have more voice than in Anglo communities, many farmworkers feel disenfranchised from middle-class Latinos, eSpecially those in positions of leadership. Furthermore, growing concentration of low- income residents means smaller city revenues, less capital for projects, and more challenges to be met by local leaders. Cities can get special funding for housing, the schools, and business development, but they need to have people who are aggressive grant writers or who have connections to capital. The most educated and well—connected residents tend to leave the Mexican towns and become community leaders in more affluent places. While many people remain active in their home community, there is a smaller base of people and 75 e.g., In one Mexican town, the Anglo principal of the high school recognized that the foreign-born students had little voice in school matters because the Mexican-American children dominated the leadership positions in the school. He started a new council of students that anybody could join to give the foreign- bom students an opportunity to voice their opinions on school matters, and become more actively involved in school policy. 160 knowledge from which cities can draw leadership. And those people who become leaders face more challenges than do leaders of more financially-secure places. Implications for Other Regions Research is emerging on rural Midwestern places that are becoming increasingly Latino (e.g., Amato 1996; Martin, Taylor and Fix 1996; Gouveia and Stull 1996). The Latino population has been growing in the Midwest since the 19608, but the largest growth has been occurring since 1980 (Aponte and Siles 1994). Much of this growth has resulted from the restructuring of the meatpacking industry, and the recruitment of Latino workers for these low—paying, dangerous jobs. Multiple case studies have documented the dramatic impacts of immigration and changing ethnicity in specific rural places, brought about by changes in the meat packing industry (e.g., Amato 1996', Benson 1996; Gouveia and Stull 1996). There is reason to believe that processes that have occurred in California may replicate themselves in the Midwest and other rural places throughout the country. Meatpacking work mirrors field work in disturbing ways. It is dangerous, there is little room for economic mobility, and it is unstable due to its high turnover rates. A structure of informal labor contracting has developed in which middlemen find employees for factories in exchange for factory bonuses and fees extracted from workers. However, differences between the Midwest and the Southwest may amplify or diminish the process of ethnic transformation. For example, because many communities in the Midwest lack a substantial “buffering” population of U.S.-bom Mexican-Americans, white emigration and political conflict may be more severe in these places. On the other hand, the larger geographical distance between the Southwest/Texas/California and places in the Midwest and East might discourage some of the growth of foreign-born Latino population. In general, people tend to make smaller moves that involve less risk (Portes and Rumbaut 1990). However, Mexican immigration has never been confined to the we“: gymnast ;,.r.~ ' ..- - -— ~"'£‘.r.' <1 ~~ - ~ W‘M’ ‘F'.- -..r—-- .._-:_-.-- '—. - - - . « 161 Southwest. Given the increasing ease of transportation, geographical distance may be even less important than in the past. Informal observational evidence suggests that processes similar to those documented in this study are occurring in places throughout the country.76 However, if non-Latino population is not studied simultaneously with Latino population, these phenomena will be missed. Furthermore, a regional approach should be taken when studying the causes and consequences of immigration in regard to any one place. Housing, job availability, and conflict in one place affect settlement in neighboring places, and vice— versa. Most studies on emerging ethnic transformations in the Midwest have focused on growing Latino population in towns with meatpacking plants. Little attention has been paid to the growth and decline of other ethnic groups, or the concurrent demographic and economic impacts on neighboring places. If similar processes are occurring in the Midwest as in California, non-Latino population should be declining in places experiencing immigration, thus exacerbating ethnic transformation. Places that are poorer, that have excess housing, and that are located near meat packing plants (e.g., those that saw a loss of population with the farm crisis of the 19803) should have experienced larger growth in foreign-born population. At the same time, wealthier places near packing plants should have experienced growth in non-Latino population, and perhaps a rise in defensive discrimination. Policy Implications Efforts should be made to reduce the growing economic inequality between Latino and Anglo towns. This might be achieved through: 1) programs to enhance economic development in Mexican towns, 2) regional housing plans that do not concentrate low- income housing, 3) social programs that address the particular needs of farmworker 76 e.g., Some school systems in Kansas are becoming increasingly Latino at extraordinary rates. However, examination of school records shows that this is due not only to growing Latino enrollment, but also to declining enrollment among non-Latino whites. IN 162 communities, 4) and lawmaking that does not aggravate the poverty of the most vulnerable members of the Latino community. Each of these potential efforts are discussed below. In regions that are just beginning to experience increasing ethnic and economic segregation, programs need to be developed to address this process before pockets of poverty are created. Economic Development in Mexican Towns Economic development is critically needed in farmworker communities to counteract and reduce the loss of high- and middle-income residents, and to enhance city revenues. Two issues are key for the enhancement of the economic well—being of these places: 1) developing policies to encourage business growth and success in colonias, thereby raising city revenues and the quality of community life; and 2) increasing stability of colonia residents’ incomes and allowing people to have more economic mobility as farmworkers. However, it also cannot be assumed that job and wage growth by themselves will attract or retain higher-income residents. Instead, such efforts might encourage further emigration as rising earnings allow for more mobility. In conjunction with economic growth, plans must be made to encourage the settlement of higher-income individuals. Industry and Business Attraction Leaders in all of the Latino communities under study discussed the difficulties they have had in attracting industry and business, despite their abundant supply of labor. Because they have low city revenues, they cannot subsidize industry relocation at a competitive rate with wealthier places. Two of the places under study also discussed problems with infrastructure constraints that they could not afford to fix (e. g., the sewer system of Orosi was at capacity at the time of this study). They also faced resistance from the farming community when trying to bring in new industry. Growers complain that new industry will take too much water, although most people believe the farmers resist new industry because they do not want to compete for low-wage workers. 163 As long as cities are competing for industries by offering large sums of money for relocation to their community, poorer communities will have a harder time competing for these jobs. The dangers of this type of competition have been extensively discussed, as it encourages constant relocation of business, and exacts large financial burdens on local communities (e.g., Davidson 1990: 125 — 151). Communities that lose their industry are devastated by unemployment, while those that gain industry do not always recover the costs of attracting it. Until federal laws prohibit this type of competition, poorer communities will have a harder time attracting and maintaining industrial development. Therefore, as long as communities are competing for industries, poorer communities will need outside support to be competitive. Grants for infrastructure development in poorer places would ease the financial constraints on these places. Orange Cove, for example, received a grant to replace their failing sewer system. The new system purifies their water to such an extent that they can sell their recycled sewer water to farmers in exchange for drinking water for the city. Because they were successful in getting grant money for improvements in their infrastructure, they are able to consider a broader range of development options than other farmworker communities. » Economically poorer communities must also be careful about the types of industry that they sponsor to promote job growth. More jobs do not necessarily bring lower unemployment and poverty levels or higher incomes. For example, Farmersville is closer to Visalia than is Woodlake, and it has a greater number of industries, but it has higher unemployment, more poverty, and lower incomes. People note that industries go in and out more in Farmersville, causing greater economic problems for the community. Industry closings tend to have a devastating effect on communities because they brings a sudden drop in employment. In discussion of industrial development, the city governments of Exeter and Orange Cove both displayed awareness that industrial development can be 1m 164 detrimental to a city, despite bringing job growth.77 If the jobs do not provide sufficient income, if they encourage population growth to a greater extent than there is job growth, or if they cost more to the city in services than the city receives in tax revenue, the economic well-being of the community remains low. In places where unemployment is high (i.e., farmworker communities), city governments may feel more pressure to accept any type of industrial development, without regard for the future consequences of this growth. Entrepreneurial Development Because it is more difficult for low-income communities to attract industrial development, therefore, they might want to encourage local business development. As discussed in the section on rising Latino power, there are many barriers to business development in colonias. The primary barrier that people expressed to business development was lack of knowledge about laws and procedures. It is especially difficult for foreign-born residents to start businesses as they lack capital and they are less familiar with the economic and legal system in which they must work.78 Programs to educate potential business owners, and provide legal and economic counseling, would improve the viability of locally-owned establishments. This might be part of a,general adult education program, aimed at improving residents’ economic options. Adult education, structured around the hours of field workers, and made flexible for weather conditions and for agricultural seasons, could also raise the level of human capital in colonias. Efforts could also be made to increase the social capital among business owners in colonias. There is a need for mentorship and advice. There is also a lack of trust and c00peration among some business owners, which hampers joint efforts for economic development. Most communities are trying to get people to work together. There are also 77 e. g., Exeter had recently turned away the establishment of a poultry-processing plant because some residents were afraid it would attract low-income immigrants to their community. That plant opened in a different community, but soon closed, economically burdening the other city. 78 e. g., “Recent immigrants bring a different way of life. Their ideas are more like Mexico, and sometimes they run into legal trouble because they want to Open businesses informally, and then they get into legal trouble” (Latino Mexican town businessman). "mg”..tgaa...“..-. .. - u”----'-‘—'_ .. H 165 several county-level economic development organizations (both private and governmental) that are working to improve cooperation among business owners, while attracting outside investment into the area. The Tulare County Hispanic Chamber of Commerce, for example, is trying to help Hispanic business owners make contacts with people in established firms for advice and assistance. At the same time, they are helping Anglo business owners learn how to do business with the growing Hispanic population. Efforts such as these could enhance business grth in farmworker towns. The ideal type of business development would take advantage of the unstable nature of farrnwork, giving alternative employment to people during seasonal slumps. Economic Stability tor Farrnworkers Business development would be easier, however, if there was more economic stability in farrnwork. Farrnworkers and farmers are the primary clients of most businesses in Latino communities. Therefore, Mexican towns are extremely dependent on the incomes of farmworkers for the economic well-being of the entire community. While business development and community education might help colonias overcome some of the disadvantages associated with low-income population, the most effective intervention would be to increase the security of farrnworkers’ incomes. This would raise the income of people in farmworker communities, and increase business viability. This might occur with enhanced enforcement of labor laws (reducing job competition), mandating higher salaries and benefits for agricultural workers, or the development of flexible local businesses or government programs that could employ people in off-seasons or during periods of high unemployment.79 Given that agricultural employment is, by nature, unstable, moneys could be made available for such contingency programs throughout agricultural communities. 79 In Orange Cove, for example, the city received funding to hire people to clean up the community when bad weather brought about unusually high unemployment for several weeks. 166 Low-Income Housing Development As shown in both the quantitative and qualitative results sections, housing is a very important factor in promoting population growth. The city governments of both Woodlake and Orange Cove have actively pursued and received grants for the construction of low- income housing. Both governments are very proud of their accomplishments in this area, and all of the residents surveyed felt that the new construction had a positive impact on the appearance and quality of life of the community. However, the construction of low-income housing in low-income communities has both positive and negative effects. On the one hand, funding for low-income housing is good for farmworker communities. Affordable housing is in great demand. In all of the communities, even in the Anglo town under study, residents felt that the recent construction of new low-income housing had benefited the town. New construction of apartments allowed people to move out of run-down places, and construction of low-income houses allowed many people to fulfill their dreams of being homeowners. While older, run-down, housing remained occupied with new tenants, the ratio of new to old housing improved. Furthermore, some people claimed that the new housing encouraged people in older housing to have more pride in the appearance of the community and to clean up the appearance of their older homes. Others suggested that as new people moved into the older housing they were more likely to clean it up and repair it than were the people that lived there before. They suggested that this was due to the type of peOple moving in, and to the excitement of living someplace new. However, while growth of low-income housing in low-income communities has many beneficial effects, it also heightens inequality between places. Many peOple noted that as low-income community members moved into new housing, new low-income community members moved into the older housing. These new residents were not necessarily either farmworkers or relatives/friends of community members, but were people attracted solely by the low-income housing. This mix of new peOple -- elderly, Fa "v”? ..‘4.3~-'V4..~~’-‘~—-‘ '<'.. ‘ . ‘~ _‘ ‘.. - . ‘ ‘ 7", 167 non-working, and non-local -- has led to concern about increasing community conflict. For example, growth of elderly population is associated with greater difficulties in passing school bonds, while growth in non-working poor population is associated with lower achievement among school children and greater problems with crime: One thing that has changed (this town) a lot is that we have a lot of new low-income housing. Since it’s county low-income housing, we get a lot of people moving from Visalia to (this town). And they’re not farmworkers. A lot of them don ’t work. What happens is communities like Visalia don’t want the housing so they put it in Woodlake or Orosi. And there’s a difi‘erence between the low-income people who work and the low-income people who don ’t work. And it ’s a difi‘erent type of influence on the community (male Latino Mexican town resident). Influx of poor population in poor areas often has a multiplicative and cyclical effect on economic inequality between places. Low-income housing tends to cost cities more in services then they get back in taxes. When poorer residents move from richer to poorer areas, the economic differences between places grow. The increasing poverty of the poorer places encourages emigration of richer community members, further concentrating poverty in the poorer places. While it makes sense to build affordable housing where it is most needed, care must be taken not to magnify the increasing concentration of poverty through planning of regional governments. It was suggested in several interviews that wealthier communities may be purposefully trying to concentrate poverty in the area by encouraging growth of low-income housing primarily in Mexican towns. If the growing economic inequality between places is to be slowed, there must be active planning to reduce the concentration of low-income population, and to supplement income into cities with larger percentages of low-income residents. Special Programs Concentration of families living on low-incomes leads to greater demands for social programs and services. Many people discussed the need for assistance for basic items such as medical care, dental care, and food subsidies. Affordable day care is also an important 168 issue as both parents in farmworker families often have extra long workdays. Some school principals discussed the need for children to be exposed to different environments and cultures. Others discussed the need for extended and more accessible adult-education programs. Such issues exist in most low-income rural communities. Two issues that seem to be more pronounced in colonias than in other places are the greater difficulties of leadership development, and the concentration of problems associated with alcohol. Leadership Development Many people discussed the need for leadership development among new generations of residents in farmworker communities. Among former farmworkers who have assumed leadership positions in their communities, most noted that they found it difficult at first to be accepted by established leaders, and that it took them years to learn how to be successful within a political and economic system that was very foreign to them. They also noted the important role of mentors in motivating them to get involved in the community, and helping them to be successful. To encourage leadership among new generations of residents in Mexican towns, efforts could be made to minimize the isolation of newcomers and younger generations from established leaders of community government and community organizations. Programs to train new leaders and get more people involved in community life might also bridge some of the social gaps. People in both Orange Cove and Cutler/Orosi mentioned the need for such programs, and discussed some efforts that had recently been made. Alcohol Abuse There is also a need to address problems of alcohol abuse associated with male farmworkers. Residents of Mexican towns and Anglo places are very concerned about drunk driving, crime, and violence associated with high rates of alcohol consumption. At the same time, the families of farmworkers arrested for drunk driving and alcohol-related crimes face even greater economic burdens when a working family member must spend time in jail and face fines. Many people blame alcohol and drug consumption for a variety w ‘JWA‘T-.'. 1., "’_'.-‘»‘—-A»' inf & mot. _ , .‘ .4. ., -.~__ H ...._ _ .. —.. . 169 of community problems, and have tried to reduce their use through legal means. Orange Cove banned live music and dancing at establishments that sold alcohol in an attempt to reduce the number of Customers at those establishments. Cutler/Orosi decided to restrict the number of liquor licenses in the community. These policies reduce the concentration of people consuming alcohol in local bars, thereby improving the community climate. However, the problems of alcoholism and alcohol/drug abuse remain and need to be addressed through affordable, culturally-conscious programs. Immiggation Policies Interviews also revealed problems with current immigration policies. Many of the policies developed to reduce unauthorized immigration actually heighten the problems of immigrants and the communities in which they live, without substantially reducing undocumented immigration. Laws to address undocumented workers tend to prompt the development of new systems for getting around the laws which have unintended negative consequences. Documentation requirements for employment, for example, have led to the development of a false document market. Most undocumented workers now purchase these false documents. This increases the financial burden on undocumented workers who can least afford the expense. It also fuels resentment among US. citizens who believe the false documents are being used to obtain free government services such as welfare and other entitlements. This, in turn, adds to the conflict and prejudice within communities. Because “everybody” has documents, it is difficult to distinguish legal from unauthorized immigrants. This discourages legally documented immigrants from pursuing services for which they are entitled for fear of being looked down upon by other community members. Other programs have equally negative consequences for communities. Fear of deportation makes enforcement of laws and city codes more difficult. People run away from, and avoid interaction with, government officials, rather than, for example, reporting violations in their housing conditions, remaining at the scene of automobile accidents, or reporting and giving evidence on crimes. Reaction against undocumented immigration led 170 to the passage of Proposition 187 in November 1995, a law that denies education and medical services to undocumented residents. Debate over this proposal added to the conflict within communities, fueling resentment among people on both sides of the issue. It is doubtful that this law could ever have an effect on immigration. It has been held up in courts because it is not constitutional, and, if ever implemented, affects the children of immigrants more so than the adults who make migration decisions. While most people agree that children should not be harmed, the implementation of this law would deny services to the most economically needy children, and increase community problems associated with the loss of services for this population. Therefore, the question remains as to how to address unauthorized immigration without increasing problems for immigrant communities. Since the primary concerns about undocumented immigrants are that: 1) they increase job competition; and 2) they receive services for which they are not entitled, these should be the primary focus of intervention efforts. There is a movement to change the form of social security cards so that they cannot be replicated. An electronic system has also been initiated to quicken the verification process of employee eligibility. These programs address the primary concerns about undocumented immigration.80 In contrast, programs that instill fear, and those that withhold services, do not directly address the real issues of concern. Instead, they increase the poverty of the poorest community residents, and they contribute to the deterioration of community life in the towns that host immigrant workers. Policy Implications for Other Areas Both within and outside of California, regions that are beginning to undergo ethnic transformation need to recognize the needs and potential impact of their new population if they want to avoid re-creating the ethnic and economic segregation that has occurred in h 80 However, if they are employed without special consideration for people currently working without authorization in the United States they could pose more social problems for communities as thousands of people who have been living in the United States for years will suddenly be without work. 17 1 central California. There seems to be a cycle of neglect for newcomers’ needs that leads, at least in part, to community deterioration. Evidence of this process comes not only from our research, but can also be seen in the case studies of other researchers (e.g., Krissman 1995 ; Palerm 1991; Rusten, Kissam, and Intili 1995). First, established residents fail to recognize immigrants as part of their community, and do not feel it necessary to address their needs. This can be seen in the separation of farmworker housing from the rest of community housing, and efforts to keep immigrants out of community life. Poverty and neglect therefore emerge in parts of the community. As Latino population grows, Latino residents become more involved in community life, and conflict emerges based on differing perceptions of community residents’ needs. As a result of this conflict, little is done to promote community development, and the community stagnates. The deterioration of the community leads more middle class residents to leave, further impoverishin g the community. Because Anglo residents hold most of the economic power, and because middle-class Latinos do not necessarily hold the same views as more recent immigrants, conflict continues to exist in places that are predominantly Latino. In places where ethnic transformation is beginning to occur, it seems possible that if established residents faced the problems of prejudice and poverty, and included the needs of newcomers as part of community planning, community deterioration and white emigration might be minimized. For example, communities might work towards ensuring that quality low-cost housing is available, and that housing codes are maintained, as a means of preventing crowding and deterioration of neighborhoods. Efforts to receive grants for programs serving minority and immigrant children might be pursued to reduce the costs of increasing school enrollment. At the least, efforts could be made to build understanding and trust between Anglo and Mexican residents. Many Anglo residents expressed feelings of discomfort with the Spanish-speaking newcomers to their communities. Efforts to incorporate newcomers into community clubs and activities, and Spanish-language classes for established residents, might help to relieve the mistrust that 172 exists between the two groups. If these things are to happen, however, established community residents must first recognize the newcomers as part of the community. Future Research There were many limitations to this study which could be addressed in future work. One issue of greatest concern is that no attempt was made to differentiate different groups of immigrants, either by country of origin or legal status. Different immigrant groups are met with varying “contexts of reception” based on the immigration policies towards that group, attitudes on the part of host community members, and the policies of employers (Portes and Borocz 1989). While most immigrants to rural California come from Mexico, people are increasingly coming from Central America. There are also substantial numbers of immigrants from Asian countries. Given the importance of social capital in both settlement decisions and economic opportunities, communities that host immigrants from newer sending countries might face different issues and greater problems associated with economic inequality. The legal status of newcomers also plays an important role in their adaptation. Legal status can be thought of as “political capital” which determines the type of employment people can obtain and the services to which they are entitled (Rumbaut 1995). Undocumented workers generally find jobs with relatively low wages and difficult working conditions. They also face greater constraints than documented workers in all aspects of their daily lives. Communities in which more residents have higher levels of political capital should find it easier to implement projects to enhance community life, as there would be less fear, more involvement, and higher incomes among community members. Furthermore, the low percentage of variance explained in foreign-born population growth suggests that either foreign-born population was not well counted by the census, or that key variables were left unstudied. Both scenarios are likely. Census undercounting of recent immigrants is well documented, especially counts of undocumented population. 173 Other studies have shown that specific social networks are integral for understanding migration patterns among immigrants. However, these could not be measured with the quantitative data available. This research also made no attempt to study different outcomes for individuals within the different types of communities. All analysis was done at the community level. Interviews suggested that the process of changing community ethnic composition might have different effects on people based on their ethnicity, their gender, and their economic status. For example, it was suggested earlier that there might be some economic, political, and occupational advantages for Latinos in Mexican towns that do not exist to the same extent in Anglo communities, despite the lower economic well-being of those places. Job and wage growth could be expected to have very different effects on the earnings potential of women versus men, especially given the greater family demands placed on Mexican women, and the greater problems women face in being able to commute to work (e. g., see Madden 1981). Interviews also suggested that contact with members of different ethnic groups had different impacts on women than on men (e. g., encouragement of women to assert their autonomy and challenge traditional roles). The climate of the schools was also very different in the different communities. Latino concentration seemed to have both positive and negative effects on achievement among Mexican and Mexican-American students, as it allowed Mexican-American students to become school leaders, but resulted in concentration of problems associated with poverty, lower overall educational expectations among the student body, and isolation from Anglo and other cultures. Intra- and inter-generational economic mobility might, therefore, be very different in Mexican towns than in more-Anglo places, and for individuals with varying demographic and economic characteristics. This study could also be replicated in other areas to discover universalities in ethnic transformation. It was mentioned that parts of the country that are just beginning to see ethnic transformation in rural areas might benefit from similar study. Factors unique to 174 these places might impact settlement and emigration in unexpected ways. It is also reasonable to assume that increasing rural migration has had some effect on urban communities. Chicago, for example, has been a traditional magnet for immigration from Mexico, and has dominated the Midwest in terms of Latino population. Now that ru_ral places in the Midwest are attracting Latino workers from California, Texas, and Mexico, it is reasonable to assume that patterns of immigration to Chicago have been affected. The places in this study were also fairly homogenous in terms of their foreign-born and their non-Latino populations, and those studied qualitatively were homogenous in their industrial base. 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APPENDICES AMADOR Ione city Jackson city Sutter Creek city BUTTE Biggs city Gridley city Oroville city Palermo South Oroville Therrnalito CALAVERAS Angels city Arnold Murphys San Andreas COLUSA Arbuckle Colusa city Williams city CONTRA COSTA Bethe] Island Discovery Bay DEL NORTE Crescent City city Crescent City North EL DORADO Cameron Park Diamond Springs El Dorado Hills Placerville city Pollock Pines Shingle Springs 187 APPENDIX A Counties and Places Under Study FRESNO Caruthers Coalinga city Del Rey Easton Firebaugh city Fowler city Huron city Kerrnan city Kingsburg city Laton Mendota city Mira Monte Orange Cove city Parlier city Reedley city Riverdale Sanger city San Joaquin city Selma city GLENN Hamilton City Orland city Willows city w Arcata city Blue Lake city Cutten Femdale city Fortuna city McKinleyville Myrtletown Pine Hills Redway Rio Dell city IMPERIAL Brawley city Calexico city Calipatn'a city Heber Holtville city Imperial city Niland Seeley Westrnorland city INYO Big Pine Bishop city Lone Pine KERN Arvin city Bodfish Boron Buttonwillow California City city Ford City Frazier Park Kemville -' » Lake Isabella Lamont McFarland city Man'copa city Mojave North Edwards Rosamond Shafter city South Taft Taft city Taft Heights Tehachapi city Wasco city Weedpatch Wofford‘ Heights K I N G S Arrnona Avenal city Corcoran city Home Garden Kettleman City Lemoore city LAKE Clearlake city Clearlake Oaks Kelseyville Lakeport city Lower Lake Luceme LAS SEN Susanville city Westwood LOS ANGELES Avalon city MADERA Bonadelle-Madera Ranchos Chowchilla city Madera Acres Oakhurst Parksdale Parkwood MARIN Bolinas Lagunitas—Forest Knolls Woodacre MARIPOSA Mariposa MERCED Delhi Dos Palos city Gustine city Hilmar-Irwin Livingston city Los Banos city Planada Winton MODOC Alturas city Gonzales city Greenfield city MONO King City city Mammoth Lakes town Soledad city MONTEREY Carmel Valley Village Castroville Las Lomas NAPA Angwin Calistoga city Deer Park St. Helena city Yountville town NBA—DA Alta Sierra Grass Valley city Nevada City city Penn Valley Truckee PLACER Auburn city Colfax city Foresthill Kings Beach Lincoln city Loomis town Meadow Vista North Auburn Sunnyside-Tahoe City PLUMAS Chester Greenville Portola city Quincy-East Quincy W Beaumont city Blythe city Canyon Lake Cherry Valley Desert Hot Springs city East Blythe Homeland Idyllwild—Pine Cove Lake Elsinore city Lakeland Village Mecca Murrieta Hot Springs Nuevo Romoland Sedco Hills Sun City Thousand Palms W Galt city §A_N BEN—ITO Hollister city San Juan Bautista city S A N BERNARDINO Adelanto city Big Bear City Crestline Joshua Tree Lake Arrowhead Lenwood Morongo Valley Nebo Center Needles city Searles Valley Twentynine Palms city Wrightwood Yucca Valley S A N DIEGO Alpine Borrego Springs Jamul Julian Rainbow Ramona Valley Center SAN OA UIN Escalon city Lathrop city Lockeford Ripon city SAN LUIS OBISPO Arroyo Grande city Baywood—Los Osos Cambria Cayucos El Paso de Robles city Grover City city Morro Bay city N ipomo Oceano Pismo Beach city 189 SANTA BARBARA Buellton Guadalupe city Santa Ynez Solvang city SANTA CLARA Mono Vista San Martin SANTA CRUZ S HASTA Anderson city Burney Cottonwood SI S KIYOU Dunsmuir city McCloud Montague city Mount Shasta city Weed city Yreka city SOLANO Dixon city Rio Vista city SON OMA Boyes Hot Springs Cloverdale city El Verano Fetters H.S.—Agua Caliente Glen Ellen Graton Guemeville Healdsburg city Monte Rio Sebastopol city Sonoma city STANISLAUS Denair Hughson city Newman city Oakdale city Patterson city Riverbank city Waterford city SUTTER Live Oak city Sutter TEHAMA Corning city Los Molinos Red Bluff city TRINITY Hayfork Weaverville TULARE Cutler Dinuba city Earlimart East Porterville Exeter city Farmersville city Ivanhoe ‘- Lindsay city London Orosi Pixley Poplar-Cotton Center Rich grove Strathmore Terra Bella Tipton Woodlake city Woodville TUOLUMNE Jamestown Sonora city Tuolumne City Twain Harte w Fillmore city Meiners-Miramonte Oak View Ojai city Piru YOLO Esparto Winters city Y UB A Wheatland city APPENDIX B Correlations Among Population Growth Variables Table 15. Correlations Among Percentage Growth Variables Percentage Percentage Percentage Change, Change, Change, Non-Latinos Foreign Born Latinos Percentage Change, Foreign Born 1.00 ..46 .26 Percentage Change, Latinos .46 1.0000 .43 Percentage Change, Non—Latinos .26 .43 1.0000 All correlations are significant at p<.001. Table 16. Correlations Among 1980 and 1990 Community Ethnicity Variables Percent Percent Percent Percent Foreign Latino, Foreign Latino, Born, 1980 1990 Born, 1990 1980 Percent Latino, 1990 1.00 .93 .97. .85 Percent Foreign Born, 1990 .93 1.00 .90 .89 Percent Latino, 1980 .97 .90 1.00 .88 Percent Foreign Born, 1980 .85 .89 .88 1.00 All correlations are significant at p<.001. 191 192 Table 17. Correlations of Foreign-Bom Population Growth With Community Ethnicity Growth in Foreign— % Growth in Percent Latino. Born, Absolute Foreign Born 1980 Numbers Population Growth in Foreign-Born, 1.0000 .4039 .5864 Absolute Numbers P: . P: .000 P: .000 % Growth in Foreign .4039 1.0000 .0766 Born Population P: .000 P: . P: .195 Percent Latino, 1980 .5864 .0766 1.0000 P: .000 P: .195 = . APPENDIX C Correlations Among County Agricultural and Employment Variables Table 18. Correlations Among County Agricultural and Employment Variables Agricultural Agricultural Percent Percent Restructuring Restructuring change in increase in Percent (1) More (2) More labor wages to workers in growth in industrial-type intensive hired labor the county Per worker per worker farms crops (1982-87) 1980-89 wage, wage 1980 1980-89 Ag.Restr.l 1.0000 .0165 .5593 -.0049 -.0045 .0352 (Industrial) = P=.754 P=.OOO P=.926 P=.931 P=.504 Ag.Restr.2 .0165 1.0000 .0625 .0674 .1711 .0758 (Intensive) P=.754 P=. P=.235 P=.200 P=.001 P=.149 HiredLabor .5593 .0625 1.0000 .0386 -.0166 -.1266 Growth P=.OOO P=.235 P=. P=.464 P=.752 P=.Ol6 W0rker(J0b) -.0049 .0674 .0386 1.0000 -.1575 .4775 Growth P=.926 P=.200 P=.464 P=. P=.003 P=.OOO Wages, 1980 -.0045 .1711 -.0166 -.1575 1.0000 -.1492 P=.931 P=.001 P=.752 P=.003 P=. P=.OO4 P=.504 P=.149 =.016 P=.000” P=.004 P=. 193 APPENDIX D Descriptive Statistics Table 19. Descriptive Statistics Standard Variable Mean DQ131111 Minimum Maximum Community Community Development, .00 1.00 -2.93767 2.76282 Development scale composed of the following: Change in % Unemployed 4.09 3.18 -1.46 19.42 Change in % in Poverty 2.89 7.21 -31.79 29.66 Change in % High School 4.27 6.43 -24.58 20.61 Graduates Change in % College Graduates 1.07 3.65 -l 1.58 14.37 % Change in Per Capita Income 43.32 9.77 11.95 66.35 % Change in Per Capita Wealth 24.97 74.82 -659.19 105.78 Transformed Change in Per 3.3IE+08 6.92E+07 .53 4.49E+08 Capita Wealth Change in Growth in percentage of 5.73 6.50 —17.93 33.45 Ethnic community residents who are Composition Latino Population % Change in Foreign-Bom 87.14 117.84 -100.00 827.69 Population Growth by Transformed C. in Foreign-Rom 13.16 3.89 1.00 ‘ 30.47 Ethnicity Pop. % Change in Latino Population 115.93 155.09 _. -76.92 1391.04 Transformed Change in Latino [3. I 7 4.42 ” .28 38. 32 Population % Change in Non-Latino 22.98 50.86 -68.91 337.58 Population Transformed Change in Non- 9.31 2.3 I .29 20.16 Latino Pop. 7 Ethnic Percent Latino in 1980 20.88 23.97 0 94.99 Composition Percent Latino in 1990 23.56 25.53 .56 98.03 Children Change in % Children in the -4.45 3.93 -14.73 8.68 Communit Change in % Children (Latinos) 1.62 15.72 -60.77 100.00 Change in % Children (Non- -5.72 5.09 -29.21 7.37 Latinos) Agricultural Agricultural Restructuring 1 36.97 9.88 ' .00 84,00 Restructuring Agricultural Restructuring 2 .00 1.00 -2.25902 1.89273 % Growth in Payroll Towards 37.10 46.49 -22.33 372.91 Hired Labor _ Transformed Change in Hired 7. 35 2.46 .82 I 9, 90 Labor Pg 194 Tal 195 Table 19 (cont’d) Standard Variable Mean M83911 Minimum Maximum Wages and Percentage Increase in 43.35 23.44 -7.52 88.79 Employment Employees Per Worker Yearly Wage, 12181.35 1344.79 7702.01 16947.66 1980 % Growth in Per Worker 55.77 12.11 14.10 92.42 Wage Human % High School Graduates 61.95 18.28 7.67 96.31 Capital (>25) in 1980 % College Graduates (>25 yrs. 1 1.07 7.74 0 41.91 old) in 1980 Housing % Growth in Housing Units 28.20 29.75 -105.77 247.71 Monthly Housing Costs, 1980 287.63 77.08 111.50 622.00 % Change in Housing Costs 51.69 8.13 25.34 71.20 % Units vacant in 1980 10.59 11.51 0 73.23 Transformed % Units vacant in 2.97 1.33 0 8.56 1980 Size of Place Geographic Area 20,0305 49,979.35 445 534,831 1 Transformed Geographic Area 3. 98 .46 2.65 5. 73 Total population, 1980 3742.68 2770.52 912 14,946 Wealth, 1980 Per Capita Income from 450.67 409.29 -12.28 3488.18 Wealth, 1980 _ Transformed Wealth, 1980 2.64 .28 1.86 3.55 APPENDIX E Interview Schedule The purpose of these interviews is to gain an understanding of the current economic and social situations of rural California communities. These questions are designed to discover: 1) how community leaders perceive their communities, and the changes going on within their communities (including economic and ethnic changes); 2) the social networks of community leaders with each other and with outside organizations; and 3) the issues that leaders perceive are of most importance for their communities. You have been asked to do this interview because you have been identified by others as a leader in this community. Before we begin, I want you to know that everything you tell me will be kept completely confidential. I will not associate your name with any of your responses. Although I might use quotes from your interview in my report on this community, your identity will remain completely anonymous. You may choose not to answer any question, and may ask for clarification of this study at any time. I will also provide you with my address and phone number in case you have any questions in the future about this study. Do you have any questions before we begin? Do you mind if I tape record our interview? Part 1. General Perceptions of the Community How would you characterize your community? How would you compare this community with neighboring communities? (Ask about other communities studied. Exeter, Orange Cove, Cutler/Orosi Woodlake Are there neighboring communities that are seen as similar to this community? What are they like? Are there neighboring communities that are seen as very different from this community? What are they like? What have been the biggest changes in this community over the last decade? How did these changes begin? What has been the response of community members? Do all community members view these changes in similar ways? Were particular people or organizations involved in bringing about or reacting to these changes? How do you think your community will be different in another ten years? What types of retail establishments are in this community? Where do people go for: groceries, doctor/medical services, dentist, optometrist, clothing, gifts, banks, insurance? What types of social organizations are available in this community? (Churches, work organizations, charity organizations, children's clubs, athletic groups, etc.) What types of opportunities are available in this community for: jobs, education, loans, medical services? Have these opportunities increased over the last decade? Why? Do you think they will increase or decrease over the next decade? Why? Part 2. Different Neighborhoods and Groups of the Community 196 What Hov Are 197 What are the neighborhoods/geographic areas that comprise this community? How would you characterize the different types of people in this community? (by occupation, ethnicity, political beliefs, etc.) Can these groups be defined by membership in specific organizations? Are they represented by different community leaders? Are there some people in this community who do not voice much opinion in local matters? Who? , Are there some community members who are more strongly or more weakly represented in community decision-making? Are there many differences between long-term residents and newcomers? Who are leaders in this community? (Governmental, Organizational, Religious, etc.) Who do they represent? How did they become leaders? What issues have they worked on? What do they do in the community? Do you know if these leaders are also involved in larger state, or national organizations? Part 3. Economic Well-Being of the Community How would you characterize the economic condition of this community? What is the economic condition of this community compared to neighboring communities? What factors do you think have been most influential in determining the economic conditions of the community? What are the main sources of employment? Do you see more or less economic inequality in this community, compared to other communities? I’m going to list a series of items that might influence the economic well-being this community. I would like you to estimate how much each of these has changed in the last decade, how beneficial this change has been for the economic Well-being of the community, and how detrimental this change has been for the economic well-being of the community. I am asking both about the benefits and detriments of potential changes because often one change will have both positive and negative effects. For example, one of the items is employment in low-skill jobs. I’ll ask you to estimate how employment in low-skill jobs has changed over the last decade, how beneficial this change has been for the community, and how detrimental this change has Been for the community. Please feel free to clarify or qualify your reSponses to these questions. For comparison purposes, I am going to ask you to assign a number representing the amount of change, benefit, or detriment you feel has occurred. This might seem confusing at first, but I'll explain further, until you feel comfortable responding. I would like you to treat the number 100 as a moderate value, with no upper limit, and zero representing no change or effect. For example, if you think that employment in low-skill jobs is about the same as it was a decade ago, you would give it a score of 100. In other words, employment in low-skill jobs is 100% what it was a decade ago. If you think that there is twice as much employment in low-skill jobs as there was a decade ago, you would rate it at 200. If you think employment in low-skill jobs is half as much as it was a decade ago, you would rate it a 50. If you think there is no longer any employment in low-skill jobs, you would give it a score of zero. Similarly, when I ask you how beneficial you think this change has been for the community, a score of 100 would indicate that you think this change has been moderately beneficial for this community, a score of 200 would indicate that this change has been twice as much as moderately good for the community, while a score of 50 would indicate that you think this change has been half as beneficial as moderate. Yc H1 duo. Cd OIL ooh.L..|...k..l I I C 198 You may use any number you want. There is no upper limit. We’ll practice a few times first. After giving a numeric response, please feel free to qualify your answer. (Practice with a few items, clarify the response.) How much has (fill in from below) changed in the last decade in this community? (100 = remained the same) How beneficial has this change been for the economic well—being of the community? (100 = moderately beneficial) How detrimental has this change been for the economic well—being of the community? (100 = moderately detrimental) employment in low—skill jobs (requiring less than a high school education) employment in medium-skill jobs (requiring a high school degree, or some college) employment in high skill jobs (requiring a college degree) immigration of temporary workers from Mexico/Latin America settlement of permanent residents from Mexico/Latin America investment in this community from outside organizations g. employment in locally-owned businesses h. employment in businesses owned by individuals or corporations outside of this community i. number of non-Latino residents in the community j. number of Latino residents in the community k. assistance of federal or state government agencies or officials l. assistance of non-governmental organizations outside of this community m. collaboration with other local communities on issues of mutual importance n. collaboration among local groups for community development efforts 0. conflict among groups within this community THOQPO‘P Part 4. Migration into and out of the Community Try to think of particular people you know who have moved into this community within the last decade. Why have they come here? Why have people stayed in this community? What makes it attractive? Try to think of particular people you know who have moved outside of this community. Why have they left? ' -' What is the community doing to attract or discourage new residents? Are there any general feelings about the ideal population growth? I’m going to list a series of items that might attract people to this community. I would like you to think of the people you know in this community, and estimate how important each of these items was in attracting them to this community. Once again, I am going to ask you to assign a number representing how important you think each item is. I would like you to treat 100 as a moderate value, with no upper limit, and zero representing no influence. For example, one of the items is the availability of low-skill jobs. If you think that the availability of low-skill jobs has been a moderate influence in attracting most new residents to the community, you would give it a score of 100. If you think that the influence of low-skill jobs was twice as much as moderate, you would give it a score of 200. If you think the influence of low—skill jobs was half as much as moderate, you would rate it a 50. If you think the availability of low-skill jobs had no influence in attracting most new residents to this community, you would give it a score of zero. You may use any number you want (28, 500, etc.). There is no upper limit. After giving a numeric response, please feel free to qualify your answer. How important do you think each of these is in attracting people to live in this community? 100 = moderately important) a. sense of community 199 b. family proximity c. low-skill job availability (1. high-skill (college-level) job availability e. medium-skill (high-school some college) job availability f. inexpensive housing availability g. middle-class housing availability h. luxury housing availability i. "small town" atmosphere j. schools k. ethnic composition I. dislike of other communities (explain) Now I’m going to ask you how influential a series of items has been in prompting people to leave this community. Think of people you know who have left this community in the last 10 years. How influential do you think each of these is in prompting people to move out of this community? (Once again, 100 means that you feel this factor has been moderately important, zero means you feel this factor has not been important, etc.) a. lack of low-skill jobs b. lack of high-skill (college-level) jobs 0. lack of medium-skill (high-school some college) jobs d. lack of inexpensive housing e. lack of middle-class housing f. lack of luxury housing g. "small town" atmosphere h. schools 1. ethnic composition j. conflict with neighbors k. feelings of discrimination I. dislike of new community members Part 5. Social Networks Have you ever worked with federal or state governmental officials on issues affecting this community? (Who, when, how often)? Do you feel that working with these individuals has been beneficial for this community? Why or why not? _ Have you ever worked with federal or state non-governmental organizations on issues affecting this community? (Which organizations, when, how often? Do you feel that working with these groups has been beneficial for this community? Why or why not? Have you ever worked with people from other communities on mutual issues? (Who, when, how often)? Do you feel that working with these groups has been beneficial for this community? Why or why not? How often do you work with (political, business, organizational leaders) in this community? Who do you work with? How often do you work with these leaders? Do you feel that working with these individuals/groups has been beneficial for this community? Why or why not? How often do you work on issues that come from... (parents, local growers, business interests, farm workers)? Who has brought issues to your attention in the past? Who do you usually work with? Part 6. Ethnic Climate . . How are relations in this community between (the groups mentloned in part 2)? Between Latinos and non~Latinos? Between recent immigrants and established residents? Part 7. Pressing Issues What are the most pressing issues in the community? Where do you feel efforts and moneys should be put to benefit this community? Do other members of the community share your opinion? Who might differ and why? Part 8. Current Projects 200 What community projects or issues are you and other community leaders currently working on? Why have you chosen these projects/issues? What is their purpose? What initiated them? What projects have you and other community members worked on in the past? What initiated them? What was the result of these initiatives? How important is it for leaders in this community to develop (low—skill, high-skill jobs? Part 9. Personal Information You were recommended for this interview because you are recognized as a leader in this community. Who do you feel you represent? What groups are you affiliated with? How long have you lived in this community? Why did you decide to live here? How did you arrive where you are (in terms of your job and location)? Is there anything you would like to add to this interview? Are there other people in this community that you think I should talk to as community leaders? APPENDIX F Codes Used For Qualitative Data Analysis AGE ALCOHOL ATMOSPHERE BUSINESS CHILDREN COMPARISON (OTHER CITIES) CONFLICT CRIME DEVELOPIVIENT EDUCATION ETHNIC EXODUS FAMILY FARMING FARMWORK FUTURE GENDER GOVERNMENT HEALTH HOUSING HORIZONTAL SOCLAL CAPITAL ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS INVESTMENT JOB S LATERAL SOCLAL CAPITAL POLICY POVERTY PREJU DICE PROP 187 RELATIONS SCHOOLS SETTLEMENT SOCIAL CLUBS VERTICAL SOCIAL CAPITAL WEALTH ON (OBSERVATION NOTE) MN (METHODOLOGICAL NOTE) AM (ANALYTICAL MEMOS) 201 f‘.\(\1(iv APPENDIX G Models Controlling for Non-Latino, Non-White Population Table 20. Prediction of Foreign-Bom Population Controlling for Non-Latino, Non—Whites iPredictor B kg fig; Agricultural Restructuring - l .004 .01 l .878 Agricultural Restructuring - 2 .591 .148 .012 Growth in hired labor payroll in county .025 .017 .813 Growth in wages in county .058 .182 .012 Growth in employment in county -.019 —.1 14 .1 17 Wages, 1980 .000 .033 .569 Housing costs, 1980 -.005 -.107 .176 Growth in housing costs —.017 -.035 .605 Housing growth .046 .353 .000 Vacancy rate .248 .085 .180 Geographical area —.298 -.033 .649 Population, 1980 .000 .063 .302 Growth in % children among Latinos -.040 —. 162 .005 % Latino/foreign-born, 1980 -.006 -.040 .580 % Non-Latino, non-white 12.721 .154 .008 (Constant) l l. 147 .002 R Square -21 Adjusted R Square - 1 7 202 21. Prediction of Latino Population Growth Controlling for N on-Latino N on-Whites iPredictor B B_eta fig. Agricultural Restructuring - 1 -.01 l -.024 .686 Agricultural Restructuring - 2 .635 .141 .007 Growth in hired labor payroll in county -.044 -.025 .677 Growth in wages in county .014 .038 .549 Growth in employment in county .005 .025 .688 Wages, 1980 .000 .014 .776 Housing costs, 1980 -.010 —.176 .010 Growth in housing costs .000 .000 .998 Housing growth .049 .334 .000 Vacancy rate .261 .079 .152 Geographical area —.020 -.002 .975 Population, 1980 .000 .041 .439 Growth in % children among Latinos .019 .067 .182 % Latino/foreign—bom, 1980 -.052 -.285 .000 % Growth in Foreign-bom population .428 .379 .000 % Non-Latino, non-white - 9 .427 - . l 0 1 . 04 8 (Constant) 9.312 -. 101 .008 R Square -4 1 . 3 7 Adjusted R Square Table 22. Prediction of Non-Latino Population, Controlling for Non-Latino Non-Whites iPredictor B BLta Sig. Agricultural Restructuring - 1 .000 —.001 .978 Agricultural Restructuring - 2 .044 .019 .514 Growth in hired labor payroll in county .014 .016 .643 Growth in wages in county .006 .032 .354 Growth in employment in county .000 .002 .948 Wages, 1980 .000 .003 .906 Housing costs, 1980 -.001 -.046 .231 Growth in housing costs .023 .081 .012 Housing growth .063 .803 .000 Vacancy rate .118 .068 .026 Geographical area -.073 -.01 3 .697 Population, 1980 .000 .051 .082 Growth in % children among non-Latinos .025 .054 .1 13 % Latino/foreign—bom, 1980 -.027 —.277 .000 % Growth in Foreign-born population -.005 -.009 .763 % Non-Latino, non-white 8 . 02 9 . 1 6 4 . 000 (Constant) 6.434 .000 R Square .8 2 . 8 1 Adjusted R Square Table 23. Prediction of Ethnic Transformation Controlling for Non-Latino, Non-Whites Predictor % Growth in Foreign-bom population % Growth in Latino population % Growth in Non-Latino population % Latino/foreign-bom, 1980 % Latino/foreign-bom, 1980, squared % Non-Latino, non-white Adjusted R Square Ta .049 E Be_ta .370 .221 .897 .609 -l.800 —.640 .230 .850 -.005 —.779 -7.993 -.061 9.185 .75 .75 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 205 Table 24. Prediction of Community Development Controlling for Non-Latino, Non-Whites rPredictor B Be_ta figs Agricultural Restructuring - l -.003 -.027 .531 Agricultural Restructuring - 2 -.047 -.046 .335 Growth in wages in county .015 .185 .001 Growth in employment in county .007 .153 .006 Wages, 1980 .000 -.031 .462 % Growth in Foreign-born population -.057 -.221 .000 % Growth in Latino population -.013 -.059 .272 % Growth in Non-Latino population .123 .282 .000 1980 % of Adults with High School Degree .023 .407 .000 1980 % of Adults with College Degree -.005 -.037 .602 Geographical area .024 .010 .849 Population, 1980 .000 -.036 .416 Growth in % children in community -.022 -.O87 .072 Interaction: wage growth x non-Latino Growth .003 .060 .304 Interaction: wage growth x Foreign-Bom Growth -.004 -.179 .001 Interaction: job growth x non-Latino Growth -.001 -.069 .256 Interaction: job growth x Foreign—Bom Growth .002 .177 .003 Interaction: ag. restr. 1 x non-Latino Growth .003 .049 .293 Interaction: ag. restr. l x Foreign-Bom Growth .002 .058 .181 Interaction: ag. restr. 2 x non—Latino Growth .020 .048 .349 Interaction: ag. restr. 2 x Foreign-Bom Growth -.006 -.023 .636 % Non-Latino, non—white -2.547 -.127 .004 (Constant) -l . 124 .026 R Square -5 7 Adjusted R Square - 5 3 APPENDIX H Predictions of the Components of Community Development Table 25. Prediction of Growth in Per Capita Income Variable .1; Bier E Ethnic Composition Change ( % Latino) -.211 -.141 .063 Restructuring 1 - more large scale -.025 —.024 .609 Restructuring 2 - intensification .083 .008 .877 Per Worker Wage Growth .099 . 124 .036 Employment Growth . 103 .248 .000 Mean Wages, 1980 .000 .002 .961 Foreign-Born Population Growth -.507 -.202 .001 Latino Population Growth .283 .128 .066 Non—Latino Population Growth .261 .062 .434 % High School Graduates among adults, 1980 .1 12 .210 .026 % College Graduates among adults, 1980 .179 .142 .069 Geographic Area -.873 -.038 .514 Population, 1980 .000 —.034 .489 Growth in the % children in the community -.469 —. 189 .001 Interaction: Wage growth * Non-Latino Growth .021 .046 .479 Interaction: Wage growth * F-Bom Growth -.052 ._ -.244 .000 Interaction: Employment growth * NL Growth -.001 ' —.006 .930 Interaction: Employment growth * FB Growth .016 .169 .009 Interaction: Ag. Restructuring-l * NL Growth .032 .062 .235 Interaction: Ag. Restructuring—l ’1‘ FB Growth .01 1 .043 .370 Interaction: Ag. Restructuring-2 * NL Growth .214 .052 .362 Interaction: Ag. Restructuring-2 * FB Growth —. 104 —.042 .429 (Constant) 34.127 6.259 R-Square . 4 6 Adjusted R-Square ~42 206 207 Table 26. Prediction of Growth in Poverty Variable B M igl Ethnic Composition Change ( % Latino) .003 .003 .971 Restructuring l - more large scale —.015 —.020 .701 Restructuring 2 - intensification .416 .056 .337 Per Worker Wage Growth -.103 -. 176 .007 Employment Growth -.044 -.144 .033 Mean Wages, 1980 .000 .002 .975 Foreign—Bom Population Growth .395 .213 .002 Latino Population Growth —.066 - 040 .595 Non-Latino Population Growth -.493 - 158 .069 % High School Graduates among adults, 1980 —.150 - 379 .000 % College Graduates among adults, 1980 .075 .081 .345 Geographic Area .896 .053 .409 Population, 1980 .000 .065 .225 Growth in the % children in the community .379 .206 .001 Interaction: Wage growth * Non-Latino Growth -.037 —. 109 .126 Interaction: Wage growth * F—Bom Growth .032 .202 .003 Interaction: Employment growth * NL Growth .013 .103 .172 Interaction: Employment growth * FB Growth -.013 -. 177 .013 Interaction: Ag. Restructuring—1 * NL Growth -.021 -.055 .335 Interaction: Ag. Restructuring-l * FB Growth -.002 -.01 l .837 Interaction: Ag. Restructuring-2 * NL Growth -.215 —.O7l .259 Interaction: Ag. Restructuring-2 * FB Growth .034 .019 .748 (Constant) 9.258 . .037 R-Square - 3 5 Adjusted R-Square 30 208 Table 27. Prediction of Growth in Unemployment Variable B BLta ‘s—i'g Ethnic Composition Change ( % Latino) .058 .118 .067 Restructuring l - more large scale .014 .042 _301 Restructuring 2 - intensification .072 .022 .624 Per Worker Wage Growth —.01 l -.O44 .377 Employment Growth -.006 -.045 .391 Mean Wages, 1980 .000 -.024 .551 Foreign—Born Population Growth .044 .054 .309 Latino Population Growth —.008 —.012 .845 Non-Latino Population Growth -.258 -.188 .006 % High School Graduates among adults, 1980 -.093 -.537 .000 % College Graduates among adults, 1980 -.010 -.023 .724 Geographic Area . .287 .038 .439 Population, 1980 .000 .065 .119 Growth in the % children in the community —.047 -.058 .204 Interaction: Wage growth * Non—Latino Growth .002 .012 .832 Interaction: Wage growth * F-Bom Growth .001 .016 .757 Interaction: Employment growth * NL Growth .001 .016 .786 Interaction: Employment growth * FB Growth -.001 —.028 .609 Interaction: Ag. Restructuring-l * NL Growth -.013 -.076 .086 Interaction: Ag. Restructuring-1 * FB Growth -.004 —.041 .320 Interaction: Ag. Restructuring-2 * NL Growth -.026 —.019 .690 Interaction: Ag. Restructuring—2 * FB Growth .061 r g .076 .094 (Constant) 8.086 .000 R-Square - 6 1 Adjusted R-Square -58 209 Table 28. Prediction of Growth in Wealth Variable a Be_ta El Ethnic Composition Change ( % Latino) .739 .064 .480 Restructuring l - more large scale .338 .044 .443 Restructuring 2 - intensification .842 .01 l .864 Per Worker Wage Growth .557 .092 . 198 Employment Growth -.077 -.024 .743 Mean Wages, 1980 .000 -.022 .699 Foreign-Bom Population Growth -1.011 -.053 .481 Latino Population Growth -1.273 -.075 .366 N on-Latino Population Growth 4.581 .140 .137 % High School Graduates among adults, 1980 2.231 .538 .000 % College Graduates among adults, 1980 -1.254 -.129 .169 Geographic Area —5.046 -.029 .684 Population, 1980 .003 .117 .049 Growth in the % children in the community -2.987 -.156 .016 Interaction: Wage growth * Non-Latino Growth .140 .039 .614 Interaction: Wage growth * F-Born Growth -.065 —.O4O .588 Interaction: Employment growth * NL Growth -. 198 -.152 .066 Interaction: Employment growth * FB Growth .088 .1 19 .125 Interaction: Ag. Restructuring-1 * NL Growth .015 .004 .954 Interaction: Ag. Restructuring-l * FB Growth -.O47 -.023 .691 Interaction: Ag. Restructuring-2 * NL Growth .665 .021 .758I Interaction: Ag. Restructuring—2 * FB Growth .000 .000 1.000 (Constant) —88.456 .079 R-Square - 2 3 Adjusted R-Square - 1 6 210 Table 29. Prediction of Growth in the Percentage of High School Graduates Ethnic Composition Change ( % Latino) -.359 -.363 .000 Restructuring 1 - more large scale -.012 —.018 .728 Restructuring 2 - intensification -.379 —.057 .323 Per Worker Wage Growth .028 .053 .41 1 Employment Growth .024 .088 . 186 Mean Wages, 1980 .000 —.080 .120 Foreign-Bom Population Growth -.161 - 097 . 150 Latino Population Growth .026 .018 .816 N on—Latino Population Growth .704 .253 .004 % High School Graduates among adults, 1980 —. 156 - 442 .000 % College Graduates among adults, 1980 .004 .005 .955 Geographic Area 1.710 .1 13 .076 Population, 1980 .000 .033 .538 Growth in the % children in the community .244 .149 .01 1 Interaction: Wage growth * Non-Latino Growth .01 l .036 .606 Interaction: Wage growth * F—Bom Growth -.002 -.014 .830 Interaction: Employment growth * NL Growth .008 .072 .338 Interaction: Employment growth * FB Growth .003 .055 .436 Interaction: Ag. Restructuring-1 * NL Growth .021 .060 .285 Interaction: Ag. Restructuring-1 * FB Growth .015 .085 .106 Interaction: Ag. Restructuring-2 * NL Growth .321 .1 19 .057 Interaction: Ag. Restructuring-2 * FB Growth —.070 -.043 .461 (Constant) 9.854 .012 R-Square - 3 6 . 3 1 Adjusted R-Square 211 Table 30. Prediction of the Growth in the Percentage of College Graduates Variable a me E Ethnic Composition Change ( % Latino) -.052 -.093 .292 Restructuring l - more large scale -.018 -.047 .396 Restructuring 2 — intensification .082 .022 .724 Per Worker Wage Growth .096 .324 .000 Employment Growth .009 .057 .426 Mean Wages, 1980 .000 -.026 .632 Foreign-Bom Population Growth -. 133 -. 142 .051 Latino Population Growth ‘ -.051 . -.O62 .439 Non-Latino Population Growth ’ .073 '- .046 .617 % High School Graduates among adults, 1980 .057 .287 .009 % College Graduates among adults, 1980 -.1 14 -.241 .008 Geographic Area .024 .003 .967 Population, 1980 .000 —.022 .696 Growth in the % children in the community .137 .148 .019 Interaction: Wage growth * Non-Latino Growth .005 .027 .726 Interaction: Wage growth * F—Bom Growth —.005 —.O67 .345 Interaction: Employment growth * NL Growth .003 .05 5 .493 Interaction: Employment growth * FB Growth .004 .1 10 .142 Interaction: Ag. Restructuring—1 * NL Growth —.006 -.O31 .61 1 Interaction: Ag. Restructuring-1 * FB Growth .008 .084 .139 Interaction: Ag. Restructuring-2 * NL Growth —.160 -. 105 .l 17 Interaction: Ag. Restructuring-2 * FB Growth .078 -, .084 .173 (Constant) .322 . .892 R -Square 2 7 Adjusted R-Square .21