IMPACTS OF GOVERNMENT MAIZE SUPPORTS ONSMALLHOLDER COTTON PRODUCTION IN ZAMBIAByJoseph Christopher Goeb In Zambia, cotton has been an agricultural success story led by private cotton ginneries and smallholder production. Since liberalization in 1994, the cotton sector has seen periods of dramatic growth and two severe crashes. Production recovered well after the crash in 2000, but recovery since 2007 has not been as strong. The Zambian government has drastically increased its supports to smallholder production of maize since the 2005 harvest year through maize purchases by the Food Reserve Agency (FRA) and subsidized fertilizer targeted to maize through the Farmer Input Support Program (FISP). Because cotton is almost entirely produced in the country's main "maize belt", these maize supports in principle also affect the relative profitability of cotton, but any effects directly on smallholder cotton cropping decisions are largely unknown. This thesis attempts to move towards understanding the effects of the FRA and FISP maize supports on smallholder cotton production in Zambia. Two separate Cragg hurdle models are employed to determine the effects of the maize supports on i) smallholders' decisions whether to plant cotton, and ii) their land allocation decisions to cotton given that they decided to plant it. We also track household cotton planting decisions over a ten year period and analyze across several household indicators.
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