RESOUME ALWCA‘MON m7 . I 'H‘GHER EDUCATION: ' . '- A STUDY car ‘umvausm c0513 fg';.f,:.gg,: 15¢»;va {ka Degm 0% ka. , _ MICHIGAN} sum "UN-Wmsm, *7 A» ,7: Phfifiip Edmm Austin“ -,_ ” “ ’- » . - . ‘ -*-19;69 - ’fi“.' «3 This is to certifg that the thesis entitled N ‘5 Lr‘BRAxy . Michigan Siam it. Universal in w {a --.,uwa ' RESOURCE ALLOCATION IN HIGHER EDUCATION: ': A STUDY OF UNIVERSITY COSTS presented by _ . Philip Edward Austin has been accepted towards fulfillment of the requirements for 3% degree in Mic S ajor professor Date Ma! 5: 1969 0-169 (1152‘? ‘1 S ‘ {35$ :9. _. ABSTRACT RESOURCE ALLOCATION IN HIGHER EDUCATION: A STUDY OF UNIVERSITY COSTS BY Philip Edward Austin The demand for educational services on the university level has increased greatly in recent years and every indica- tion is that the trend will continue. It is also likely that the demand for these educational services will increase at a faster rate than the supply, the major limitation on supply being the budget constraint. This situation makes it impera— tive that decision makers in institutions of higher learning allocate their limited resources in the most efficient manner so as to provide for the attainment of institutional objec— ,W]tives. In order to make intelligent decisions with regard to 155.“: “I u. figthe allgéation of scarce resources, they must know what courses of action will accomplish institutional objectives and the. economic costs that will be incurred as a result of the imple— mentation of each course of action. The purpose of this study was to provide a basis for obtaining the cost information needed to make sound decisions in the process of allocating educational resources. Philip Edward Austin The costs which must be included in an economic analy- sis were discussed as well as the conceptual framework within which constrained choice problems are solved. Consumer indif— ference theory was used to demonstrate the method of choosing the point of optimum allocation when resources are limited and wants are insatiable. The isoquant approach to production theory and its application to long—run educational resource allocation problems was reviewed. The opportunity cost princi— ple was outlined and applied to educational costing problems. Based on these economic principles, a method of deter- mining the costs incurred by the College of Education, Michigan State University, in the production of academic degrees was developed. The total cost of the degree programs of the 180 students in the sample was found by summing five component cost categories: (1) instructional costs, (2) faculty support costs, (3) research costs, (4) space costs, and (5) administra— tive costs. The total costs of producing a degree in each of the several degree programs in the sample were presented. On the average, the costs incurred by the College of Education in producing a Ph.D. degree ($1399) were about twice the costs incurred in the production of either a B.A. degree ($653) or M.A. degree ($652). When degree cost variations within each Philip Edward Austin level were considered, these generalizations lost much of their meaning. The cost ranges within each level were as follows: (1) B.A. — $431, (2) M.A. — $278, and (3) Ph.D. — $326. These total degree costs were used as the dependent variable in the multivariate regression analysis which was the statistical technique used to test the hypothesis. The hypothe— sis stated that the following factors were statistically sig- nificant at the 5 percent level in explaining differences in degree program costs in the College of Education, Michigan State University: (1) class size, (2) level of study, (3) curriculum, (4) number of College of Education student credit hours in the degree program, and (5) ratio of graduate to total student credit hours in the degree program. The null hypothe— sis was used in the statistical tests and was rejected. That is, the above factors were found to be statistically significant at the 5 percent level. The regression equation revealed that, in response to an increase in class size of one student, degree costs, on the average, decrease by $3.40. Also, degree costs increase $10, on the average, with each additional College of Education credit hour in the degree program. Policy implications such as the reduction of course duplication were discussed. AMA hr; Philip Edward Austin Operating under the assumption that no economies of scale were available to the College of Education and that the budget was constant, the degree costs derived in the study were used to show the cost of one degree program in terms of others. For example, on the M.A. level, it was shown that to increase the level of degree production in the area of Student Personnel Work, at the expense of Agricultural Education, requires a reduction of six student positions in the latter area for every increase of four in the former. RESOURCE ALLOCATION IN HIGHER EDUCATION: A STUDY OF UNIVERSITY COSTS by Philip Edward Austin A THESIS Submitted to Michigan State University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY Department of Economics 1969 C) Copyright by J PHILIP EDWARD AUSTIN 1969 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Sincere appreciation is extended to Dr. John P. Henderson for his guidance and advice not only during the writing of this dissertation, but throughout the entire period of my graduate study. Special thanks are also extended to Dr. Lester V. Manderscheid and Dr. James E. Heald for reviewing parts of the manuscript and offering many substantive suggestions. PEA ii fflm ‘i.:e_--r;::<; ...A, V7 _ Chapter II III IV V TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION 1 General Objective of the Study Hypothesis of the Study Sources of Data REVIEW OF LITERATURE 8 Classification of Academic Data Methods of Cost Analysis Computer Programming and Educational Costs Cost Utility Analysis in Education ECONOMIC THEORY AND EDUCATIONAL COSTS 31 Educational Resource Allocation Efficient Resource Use DERIVATION OF EDUCATIONAL DEGREE COSTS 44 Costs to be Included Measurement of Costs Determining Educational Costs Instructional Costs Faculty Support Costs Research Costs Space Costs Administrative Costs STATISTICAL ANALYSIS 59 College of Education Degree Costs Regression Analysis Level of Study and Curriculum Variables Summary iv Chapter VI SUMMARY AND IMPLICATIONS Summary Implications BIBLIOGRAPHY APPENDICES 90 LIST OF FIGURES Iterations in the Program Budgeting Process. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 Production Possibility Curve . . . . . 36 Optimal Allocation of Resources. . . . 39 Isoquant and Set of Three Isocost Lines. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41 Regression Equation Residuals Plotted Against Average Class Size Variable, Degree Program Cost Study, College of Education, Michigan State University, 1969 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7O Regression Equation Residuals Plotted Against Student Credit Hours Variable, Degree Program Cost Study, College of Education, Michigan State University, 1969 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7l Regression Equation Residuals Plotted Against Total Cost Variable, Degree Program Cost Study, College of Education, Michigan State University, 1969 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72 LIST OF TABLES Table Page 1. Secretary—Faculty Ratios (Sec/Fac), Average Annual Professorial and Secretarial Equipment Costs (Eq/Prof and Eq/Sec), Office Space Allocations, Number of Full—Time Equivalent General Fund Faculty Members (FTEF), Supplies and Services Expenditures Per Full— Time Equivalent General Fund Faculty Member (SS/FTEF), and Secretarial Salaries Per Full—Time Equivalent Faculty Member (Sec Sal/FTEF) by Department, College of Education, Academic Year, 1967-68 . . . . . . . 51 2. Average Ten—Month Salary Figures, by Department and Rank, College of Education, Michigan State University, 1967-68. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55 3. Administrative Expenses: Undergraduate Student Affairs Office (UGSAO), Gradu- ate Student Affairs Office (GSAO), and Dean's Office; Student Credit Hours: Graduate, Undergraduate, and Total; Administrative Costs per Student Credit Hour: Graduate, Undergraduate, Overall; College of Education, Michigan State University, Academic Year 1967-68. . 57 4. Space, Administrative, Faculty Support, Instructional, Research, and Total Costs, in Dollars and Percent of Total, by Academic Level, College of Education, Michigan State University, 1967—68. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60 j Vi ,7 Table 5. Space, Administrative, Faculty Support, Instructional, Research, and Total Degree Costs, in Dollars and Percent of Total, by Level and Curriculum, College of Education, Michigan State University, 1967—68. . . . . . . . . 6. Student Credit Hours (SCH), Class Size, Total Cost, and Regression Residuals, by Student Observation, Degree Program Cost Study, College of Education, Michigan State University, 1967—68 . 7. Matrix of t Values Generated by Tests for Significant Differences at 5 Percent Level, by Combinations of Degree Programs, Degree Program Cost Study, College of Education, Michigan State University, January 1969 . . . 63 65 79 W. age -r.___i .12; ;:;__ , W : 777:7? . , 1,, W, 7v: ,1 , I-__fi,., \~_ 7;: CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION Educators are becoming increasingly concerned with the rising costs of educational programs on the university level. As the demand for higher education continues to grow, in many cases at a faster rate than resource appro— priations, it is evident that given the quality of a pro— gram, the costs of providing that program must be minimized if the maximum number of students are to be educated. In order to arrive at reliable cost/benefit decisions, adminis— trators obviously must be aware of the relative costs of the various programs provided by their institutions. Decision makers in higher education, as well as all taxpaying citizens who are interested in attaining the most efficient allocation of educational resources, are looking to econo— mists for alternatives to be used as foundations for educa- tional policy decisions. The study of educational costs should not be taken as an indication that economic factors alone are the principal determinants of educational resource allocation. Intelli— gent educational decisions will always be based on the nature of education and of educational institutions. To achieve efficiency in institutions of higher learning, economy must be consistent with the institutional environ— ment necessary for academic interaction. The primary responsibility of higher education is to increase the store of knowledge, both in terms of quantity and in terms of breadth of distribution. The costs incurred in discharging this responsibility are small relative to the value to society. Obviously, some very high cost programs might be considered of high value and not only continued, but expanded. This does not preclude the necessity on the part of the administrators for being aware of the cost of such programs. There might be instances where a cost analysis would suggest the desirability of the contraction, or the termination, of a particular course of study. For example, a continuum could be constructed arranging all of an institution's programs in decreasing order of educational importance, and a second list could be constructed arrang- ing programs according to a decreasing order of magnitude ‘in terms of cost. If the least important program from an educational standpoint (a value judgment imposed by profes— sional personnel) were the most costly, the continuation of such a program might be called into question. Previous research in this area has not, in general, been adequately precise to be of great value to university decision makers. Much of the work has taken the form of dividing the total number of student credit hours by the appropriate university or departmental expenditure to arrive at a cost per student credit hour. Comparisons were then made among departments or colleges of one university, or among many universities.1 The value of interinstitutional comparisons is quite obviously limited by variations among the several institu— tions such as the content of course offerings of similar departments, institutional goals and objectives, and accounting procedures. Colleges and universities are diverse operations. The goals and objectives of a small, private liberal arts college, and the functions it performs can be quite different from those of a large state univer— sity. Even if they are committed to the same goals, the methods they use to classify financial and academic data lThree recent studies of this general form are: (1) California and Western Conference Cost and Statistical Study. (New York: Fund for the Advancement of Education, 1960) (2) Ralph Nelson Calkins, The Unit Costs 9f Programs in_Higher Education. (Ann Arbor: University Microfilms, 1963) and (3) Unit Cost Study: Instruction and Departmental Research. (Lansing, Mich.: Michigan Council of State College Presidents, August, 1966). might vary. Different institutions might also be operating on different cost schedules or at different points on the same schedule. All of these factors limit severely the usefulness and applicability of interinstitutional cost comparisons. To a lesser extent, objections can be raised about making cost comparisons in a single institution where all accounting and registration procedures are identical. In this case there will still be differences in departmental goals and objectives which will be reflected in the average student credit hour production per faculty member. For example, one department might be largely committed to edu— cating graduate students and conducting research, while the faculty of another might perceive their responsibility to be one of providing educational resources for under- graduates. The student credit hour production per full- time equivalent faculty member in the former would most often be significantly lower than the latter; this differ— ence would have a corresponding effect on the average cost per student credit hour in the departments. In addition to the problems of data homogeneity, it must be emphasized that unit costs themselves have limitations. They reflect a situation in which a given number of students are consuming a given amount of w?” 5'? ~—~ ' ' " \*--—~ T1 educational resources, at a given price at a point in time. A change in the educational production function or any of the inputs, regardless of size, might change the relative unit costs entirely. Also, higher costs per unit of educational output can mean greater inefficiency, greater quality, or simply reflect the desire of administrators to allocate more resources to one program than to others. In spite of their limitations, unit costs can be of great assistance to administrators if they are aware of the assumptions under which the costs are derived and use them accordingly. However, even if the cost information is completely accurate and administrators use the figures only to the extent of their reliability, unit costs alone do not provide enough information to be of assistance in making some types of decisions. For example, assume there are a number of degree programs that will accomplish a particular goal or set of goals in an institution. Addition— ally, due to a limited resource base, only one program can be offered. If all programs are equally effective in accomplishing institutional goals or objectives, and there are no rigidities such as tenured faculty members in one area, the relative costs would be the major criterion used in deciding upon which will be offered. In this case, the cost of the entire program of study is the relevant figure for decision making. General Objective of the Study This study is undertaken with the general objective of developing a model which will provide administrators of institutions of higher learning with the data needed to make decisions concerning resource allocations. More specifically, it will provide degree program cost figures for the College of Education, Michigan State University, and identify some major factors responsible for cost vari- ations among programs. It is a part of a wider study being conducted by the Planning and Development Office of the College in which all existing programs being offered by departments and institutes will be examined with respect to objectives value and cost. In short, the purpose of the study is to provide a basis for evaluating alternative allocation policies under the assumption that the College of Education has a range of values and changing objectives, but a fixed resource base that provides a very important constraint. Hypothesis 2: the Study The hypothesis of the study is that the following factors are statistically significant at the 5 percent level in explaining differences in degree program costs in the College of Education, Michigan State University: (1) class size, (2) level of study, (3) curriculum, (4) number of College of Education student credit hours in the degree program, and (5) ratio of graduate to total College of Education student credit hours in the degree program. To conduct the statistical tests, the null hypothesis is constructed. The null hypothesis states that the five factors listed above are not statistically significant at the five percent level in explaining differ— ences in degree program costs. The hypothesis and the appropriate statistical tests are discussed in detail in Chapter V. Sources gf_2ata Data were obtained from the College of Education Office of the Dean, the Office of Institutional Research, and the Graduate and Undergraduate Student Affairs Offices of the College of Education, all of Michigan State University. Other data, as necessary, were collected from the several department chairmen and institute directors. CHAPTER II REVIEW OF LITERATURE The economics of education is a relatively wide area of academic inquiry. Such diverse research topics as deter— mining the role of education in economic development, measur— ing the economic return to education, determining the demand for educational services, and discovering efficient methods of allocating educational resources on the institutional level have all been included in the category of the economics of education. This generic classification can be divided into macro and micro subcategories, with the first three of the above four categories being included in the macro section. It is to this category that economists have directed most of their research efforts in recent years. The literature on the micro or institutional level (usually concerned with resource allocation problems) has increased in recent years, but many conceptual and method~ Ological questions remain to be solved. The literature which is of particular relevance will be reviewed in this 8 9 chapter. The general areas to be considered are as follows: (1) the classification of academic data, (2) methods of edu- cational cost analysis, (3) computer programming and educa— tional costs, and (4) cost-utility analysis in education. Classification p£_Academic Data A cost analysis has many aspects. Subsequent to the statementof the problem, terms must be defined. That is, before engaging in an analysis of resource allocations, the economist must decide in what units the various inputs and outputs of the educational process are to be measured. A recent National Science Foundation study was designed to: ...devise and test systems of measuring and reporting activities in colleges and univer— sities so that such institutions would be enabled to maintain records adequate both ‘ for their own purposes and for reporting to the various agencies which stand in need of this type of data. 1Systems for Measuring and Reporting the Resources and Activities pf Colleges gpg_Universities, National Science Foundation, NSF — 67-15 (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office, July 1967), p. 5. Some other publications in this area that have been widely used by various institutions of higher learning over the past four decades are as follows: (1) Edwin E. Stevens and Edward C. Elliott, Unit Costs pf Higher Education (New York: Macmillan and Company, 1925); (2) National Committee on Standard Reports for Institutions of Higher Education, Financial Reports Egg Colleges 32g Universities (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1935); (3) National Committee on the Preparation of a Manual on College and University Business Administration, College gpg University Business Administration (Washington, D.C.: Center 10 The NSF researchers recognized that the activities of academic personnel have traditionally been categorized in terms of teaching, research, and public and professional activities. Additional categories sometimes included are administration and student services. From their study of basic personnel data items, however, several new categories were established. The new categories were concerned with the over— lapping of two traditional categories (teaching and research), and with creative activity in the arts and humanities as opposed to creative activity in scientific research. Many professors suggested a need for a category to cover research activity when the research was part of the educational process. When a professor is conducting a research project with a graduate student he is engaged in both teaching and research. To represent the role of the professor in this type of research and teaching activity, the category of ”Teaching—Research” was established. fpr Applied Research in Education, 1952 [Vol. I/ and 1955 [Vol. 13/);(4) California 32g Western Conference Cost apd Statistical Study (Berkeley: University of California Printing Department, 1960); and (5) American Association of Collegiate Registrars and Admissions Officers, Handbook pf Data and Definitions pp_Education (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1962). 11 A separate category was also needed to cover "creative activity” in non-scientific disciplines when such activity could not be appropriately designated as research. The production of a play is quite a different activity from the clinical testing of a drug, and the time allocation reports should reflect these differences. To fill this need, the "Creative Activity in Art and Scholarship” cate— gory was devised. Once this classification was established, a category parallel to that of teaching-research was estab— lished. The new category was labeled ”Teaching Through Creative Art and Scholarship" and defined as follows: "That kind of creative activity which is carried on with one or more apprentices for whom this involvement is part of their formal educational program."2 The study resulted in a list of ten major categories which, taken collectively, represent the full professional life of the academic—professional person. This list includes: (1) teaching, (2) research, (3) teaching-research, (4) creative activity in art and scholarship, (5) teaching through creative activity in art and scholarship, (6) public service, (7) administration, (8) formal personal education, (9) intra— university activities, and (10) other extra—university activities. 2Ibid., pp. 73—74. 12 While this set of categories is quite complete, an Operational problem.exists. It would be very difficult to generate enough interest among faculty members to cause them to become acquainted with the categories, or to record the allocation of their time, on a regular basis, among the categories. Also, in general, as a group of data is sub— divided to a greater extent, there is a tendency for those using the data to place more reliance in its authenticity. To the extent that the more precise classifications are accurate, they are more helpful to decision makers, but it must be remembered that the chance of classifying the alloca— tion of one‘s time incorrectly increases as the number of categories increases. Methods g: Egg: Analysis Costs can be expressed in many forms. Some of the common units of presentation are cost per student credit hour, cost per course taught, cost per academic program, cost per full—time equivalent student, and expenditures by department. In a thesis completed at Purdue University,3 a unique approach to educational costs was taken. The product of higher education was considered to be unquantifi- able. Therefore, rather than assigning costs directly to 3Harry Hamel Hirschl, Some Economic Considerations and gpPr0cedure for 3 University Cost Study, M.S. Thesis (Lafayette: Department of Economics, Purdue University, 1965). 01>. h..- (i it) 13 the product, they were assigned to a quantity that represents the product. The quantity used in the study was the class, defined as the meeting of students and teacher. The final figure presented as the unit of comparison was the average expense per student by academic level and field of study. The total cost of offering each course was distributed over the student body on the basis of the composition of the class. For example, the number of sophomore students major— ing in electrical engineering would be allocated 20 percent of the total costs of a given class if ten out of the fifty students in the class Were in this category. This cost is derived for each category of student for each class. These figures are then summed, and this figure divided by the num— ber of students in the appropriate category. This average expense per student minus the average fees collected per student represent the average net cost per student in each category to the State of Indiana. One of the fundamental differences between the Indiana study and the present thesis lies in the educational product or service being measured. In the former study, costs per student were calculated by level of study and academic area. In the latter study, the total costs involved in the process of degree production are considered to be the relevant units of measurement. To carry out a cost 14 benefit analysis of several degree programs, the total costs of each must be known. The Indiana study did not provide the information needed for this type of analysis while the present study does. A recent U. S. Office of Education study4 considered the costs and returns of only doctoral programs in four academic disciplines. Separate rates of return were calcu- lated for different employment possibilities open to bachelor degree holders in the four areas and, on the assumption that an individual's contribution to output is reflected by these rates of return, they were used as "earnings foregone" estimates, and included as opportunity costs in the total cost of education figures. The sample from which the cost data were obtained was composed of eleven universities known to have varying qualities of cost data and accounting records. Since inter— institutional data were used and only doctoral programs were considered, the general applicability of the conclusions is limited. Also, even though it is one of the most impressive of the recent studies in the economics of education, the cost analysis section had some limitations. The costing 4 . . Irene Butter, Economics pf Graduate Education: 53 Exploratory Study, U. S. Office of Education Cooperative Research Project No. 2852 (Ann Arbor: Department of Economics: University of Michigan, 1966). 15 procedure which was used implied that the cost per student credit hour of all courses was equal. The following costs were considered in the analysis: (1) instructional costs consisting of graduate faculty salaries, staff benefits, departmental supplies, equip- ment, and clerical costs, (2) research costs, (3) costs of physical facilities, (4) administrative costs, including both general university and departmental administration, (5) library costs, and (6) Opportunity costs. The total costs were divided by the number of student credit hours produced by each department to arrive at a cost per student credit hour. The number of student credit hours in the course taking phase of the academic program of each discipline was multiplied by one cost per student credit hour figure for each university and the research credit hours were multi— plied by another. This method ignores the fact that a relatively large class taught by a relatively low paid professor will produce lower cost student credit hours than a relatively small class with a relatively high-salaried professor. Since only doctoral programs were considered, the criticism is less valid than if the procedure were used in the present study where degree programs of all levels are analyzed. The deficiency does not exist in the present study because, rather than determining an average cost for 16 course credit hours and another average cost for research credit hours, the cost per credit hour was calculated for each course taught in the College of Education, Michigan State University, during the academic year 1967—68. The total costs for the appropriate courses were then summed to determine the degree cost of each student in the sample. A more detailed account of the procedure will be presented in Chapter Iv, Butter found that the average costs of training Ph.D. students in sociology and English were less than one—half of the average costs of training doctoral students in physics and zoology. The cost levels of physics and zoology were quite close to each other, while English was less than sociology. When the opportunity costs referred to above were added, the relative cost positions changed: the difference between zoology and physics increased, but the difference between the average costs of the natural sciences on the one hand, and of sociology and English on the other, decreased. The changes in the relative cost positions when opportunity costs were included resulted primarily from the differences in the number of years required to complete the doctorate in the four fields. It was also found that at the 5 percent level no significant differences existed in the total cost of the Ph.D. 17 between departments of the public and private universities in each discipline. Economies of scale measured by the number of graduate students enrolled in the department appeared to exist in physics and sociology, but not in English. The difference in theeconomies of scale observed in the sciences and English is probably generated by the larger equipment expenditures of the fixed cost variety required in the sciences. As more students are added to a given plant, capacity utilization increases and the costs per student decrease. The faculty—student ratio was not a statistically significant factor, but average faculty sala— ries accounted for 70 percent and 91 percent of the variance in average total costs in zoology and sociology, respec— tively, when all other variables were held constant. Average faculty salary played only a minor role in explain— ing cost variations in physics. Analyses of variance indi- cated that at the 5 percent level, the average costs of the research phase in physics and zoology are significantly higher than the correSponding costs in sociology and English. No significant differences were found at the 5 percent level in the cost of the research phase between departments in public universities and the same departments in private universities. The differences in the costs of the research phase of the degree programs are generated primarily by the 18 varying laboratory and space requirements of the four disciplines. The California and Western Conference Cost and Statistical Study,5 published in 1960, gave support to many theories of educational costs which had either never been tested or the evidence supporting them was very limited. The data for the study were collected from ten colleges and universities and included all persons who were paid from an instructional budget. Expenditures were allocated to three levels of instruction: (1) lower-division under— graduate, (2) upper-division undergraduate, and (3) gradu— ate. Total instructional costs within each department were divided by the number of student credit hours produced by that department to arrive at costs per student credit hour. Therefore, in the sense that the data were not disaggregated to the individual course level, the results suffer from the same deficiency as those of the Butter study. Additionally, since only instructional costs were considered, the useful— ness of the results is restricted. As was indicated above, an attempt has been made to remedy these deficiencies in the present study. 5California and Western Conference Cost and Statis— tical Study, op. cit. 19 Analysis of the results indicated (1) significant variation in unit costs among institutions within subject fields, (2) the unit costs of graduate instruction were significantly higher than those of upper-level which was higher than the costs of lower-level instruction, and (3) high or low unit costs were not peculiar to specific sub— ject fields, but were the result of a combination of fac— tors which affect the costs of organized classes. The last of the three findings is contrary to Butter's conclusion that curriculum has an influence on the behavior of unit costs. The results of the present study, to be reported in Chapter V, support Butter's conclusion. A possible explanation for the different results reported by the California group is that they considered only instructional costs. In the institutions studied in the California study, the most important factor explaining variations in unit costs is the ratio of students to staff in the particular subject field. The effect of changes in the ratio on edu— cational quality was not considered. The researchers concluded that no generalized state— ment could be made with regard to the effect of enrollment changes on unit costs. Also, among the institutions studied, it was found that high faculty salaries are not necessarily associated with high costs per student. Other factors, such 20 as size of class, faculty assignment, and teaching expendi- tures other than faculty salaries influenced costs per student more than did the level of academic salaries. A policy conclusion drawn from this finding was that it was quite possible for an institution to raise its faculty compensation without causing an increase in per student costs. It was predicted that the increasing costs of higher education will continue partially in response to the broadening of curricula which is made necessary by scien— tific and technological progress. Theoretically, unit costs would be minimized if all students followed the same curriculum, since only the minimum number of courses would have to be offered. A policy conclusion to be drawn is that the number of courses offered by any given university subunit should be the minimum level necessary to achieve institutional goals and keep pace with scientific and tech— nological progress. Computer Programming and Educational Costs In making administrative decisions, university officials should have at their disposal tools as s0phisti~ cated and precise as those used by their counterparts in the business world. One of the most widely used recent developments in this area is the simulation model. 21 Computers have been used for some time in decision making in the business world, but their use in universities has been largely restricted to payroll, registration, and other simple data reduction activities. Within the last few years several separate research projects have been conducted which have attempted to apply simulation analysis to university operations. Two of the most relevant studies will be reviewed. Models are simply abstractions from the real world and, to the extent that they reflect reality, they can be used to simulate the behavior of the real world. The model becomes to the administrator what the laboratory is to the engineer; he is able to test alternatives before making a decision and anticipate problems rather than face unexpec— ted crises. The analyst can vary the inputs of a system and note the effects on cost and output prior to deciding which of the systems is the most desirable. Obviously, before these comparisons can be made, all of the costs, alternative processes and output measures have to be worked out. In this sense, the methodologies and conceptual frame— works develOped in many of the recent simulation studies are similar to those used in the present study. One of the most complete studies in this area was Sponsored by the National Science Foundation and carried out 22 by the Division of Engineering Research at Michigan State University.6 The model developed by the research group was a mathematical description of the way a university utilizes its resources in production. The resources were categorized as personnel, space, and equipment while the products were identified as developed manpower, research, and public or technical services. The purpose was to provide a basis for evaluating alternative allocation policies. No attempt was made to define the goals of higher education or to determine optimum allocation policies. 6Herman Koenig, et. al., “A Systems Approach to Higher Education," Interim Report No. 3, Project C—396, National Science Foundation (East Lansing: Division of Engineering Research, Michigan State University, 1966); Rita Zemach, "A State—Space Model for Resource Allocation in Higher Educationfi'Technical Report (East Lansing: Division of Engineering Research, Michigan State University, 1967); and Herman Koenig and Martin Keeney, "A Prototype Planning and Resource Allocation Program for Higher Education,“ paper presented at the Symposium on the Opera- tions Analysis of Education, U. S. Office of Education, Washington, D.C., November 19—22, 1967. Some related publications of a more general nature are: J. A. Kershaw and R. N. McKean, Systems Analysis gpg Education, Memorandum RM-2473—FF (Santa Monica, California: The Rand Corporation, 1959); Richard W. Judy and Jack B. Levine, §.§§E Tool for Educational Agpinistrators, The Commission on the Financing of Higher Education (Toronto: University of Toronto Press, .—-—.——-——-—__ 9f pg Urban School District (Philadelphia: Management Science Center, University of Pennsylvania Press, 1967). 23 The model consisted of sets of equations which described the relationship of resources to production and the associated costs of production. The model was composed of several sectors, each of which was related to a specific operation of the university. The characteristics of each sector were modeled independently, then the model of their interrelationship was developed. The input—output relationships of the model were obtained from actual university data. Since some of the variables, such as the imputed value of manpower output were not directly measureable, the model could not be validated by observation. It was assumed that if those parameters, which depend on human behavior, accurately reflected the collective behavior of students and adminis— trators, the validity of the non—measurable values was implied. Other parameters were based directly on university records, and were valid to the extent the data base was valid. The data used in the cost analysis are of special concern here. To arrive at the institutional costs for any given quarter, it was necessary to know the total faculty time devoted to each course and the total number of students, as well as the salary of each faculty member. The final 24 figure presented was the instructional cost (i.e., faculty salaries) per student credit hour by student field and level. The major problem encountered in the cost analysis portion of the study was in the defining of terms. For example, the faculty time expenditure categories of instruc— tion, research, and administration were not clearly defined, so the data collected frOm the several departments were not homogeneous. The researchers attempted to remove this deficiency by making a series of recommendations with regard to future data gathering procedures. They outlined a cen— tralized and mechanized record system that would (1) supply day—to-day operational data, (2) provide a data base for model building, and (3) serve as a part of the general university data base. The information would be stored on magnetic tape and would be segmented into four subdivisions, determined on the basis of type of data and frequency of use. A central office would be in charge of all data gathering activities to insure not only efficiency but also homogeneity. 7 also con— A group of researchers at Tulane University struCted a simulation model which, in many respects, was similar to the NSF work at Michigan State University. 7Peter A. Fermin, Seymour 8. Goodman, Thomas E. Henricks, and James J. Linn, University Cost Structure and Behavior (New Orleans, La: Department of Economics, Tulane University, 1967). E r 25 The Tulane study began with a careful examination of the nature of a university, its goals and objectives, and the relationship of these goals and objectives to the behavior of costs. Using data from several unidentified public and private institutions, historical cost behavior was analyzed. Relationships between expense categories and various university functions such as library, food services, housing, student activities, and physical plant were studied. On the basis of empirical data, a model was construc— ted to simulate the behavior of university costs. The basic framework of the model was a.seven part conception of the following university functions: (1) teaching, (2) administration, (3) research, (4) professional activities, (5) community service, (6) supporting activities, and (7) student activities. The simulation model facilitated com- parative analyses of interdepartmental costs and was used to predict future costs. On the basis of five years of historical data, the model would predict cost levels and behavior for the four subsequent years. Some of the important and obvious conclusions reached by the Tulane researchers were: (1) enrollment is the best available predictor of the aggregate level of university costs, (2) the most important element of university costs 26 is salaries. Salary payments, however, represent different proportions of total departmental expenditures, and this proportion varies with the discipline which the department represents. In those departments which require few physical facilities or laboratories, salaries are the dominant—— almost exclusive--expenditure. Alternatively, in the physical sciences salary payments, obviously, constitute a smaller proportion of total instructional expenses; (3) the assumptions that the unit cost of instruction increases with the level of instruction in the undergraduate program, and that unit costs of instructing graduate students are higher than the units of instructing undergraduates, were confirmed by the study. This simply reflects the patterns of academic effort which typically call for smaller section sizes and higher ranking professors for higher level courses. Cost Utility Analysis £3 Education As was pointed out in the introduction, the results of the present study are to be used as part of the data base for a cost/utility analysis of the College of Education, Michigan State University. Most of the recent work in the cost/utility analysis area has been related to government 27 activities, particularly the Defense Department.8 The basic principles, however, apply to analyses of educational institutions as well. Cost/utility analysis refers to the systematic examination of alternative courses of action which might be taken to achieve specified goals for a given time period. Many factors must be considered in evaluating the alternatives, but two are of special importance: (1) the economic costs incurred in providing each of the alterna- tives, and (2) the benefits or utility available from each alternative. It is assumed in the present study that the several degree programs offered by the College of Education are alternative methods of achieving stated college objec— tives. It is the purpose of the study to calculate the amount of economic resources consumed in the process of 8Charles J. Hitch and Roland McKean, The Economics 2: Defense £p_ppp Nuclear Agp (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1960); RolanélMcKean, Efficiency ip_Government Through Systems Analysis (New York: John Wiley and Sons, 1958); David Novick, Program Budgeting ;p_ppg Department p: Defense, RM—4210-RC (Santa Monica, Cal: The Rand Corporation, 1964); Arthur Smithies, A_Conceptua1 Framework Egg pp; Program Budget, RM—4271-RC (Santa Monica, Cal: The Rand Corporation, 1964)7J. String, A Model fpp PrOjecting Costs pg Space Exploration, P—3119 (Santa Monica, Cal.: The Rand Corpora— tion, 1965); J.D. McCullough, Cost Analysis jg; Planning Programming—Budgeting—Cost—Benefit Studies, P—3479 (Santa Monica, Cal.: The Rand Corporation, 1966). 28 providing each alternative so the administrators and faculty members of the College will be better equipped to make intel— ligent resource allocation decisions. The primary purpose of cost/utility analysis is not to make the decision, but to improve the judgment and intuition of the decision makers. Most problems involve political, sociological and psycho— logical considerations that cannot be measured and included in the analysis in quantitative form. Therefore, human judgment is still an important aspect of the decision—making process. Fisher9 lists a series of important guidelines to be followed when carrying out a cost/utility analysis. The most important is the prOper structuring of the problem and design of the analysis. It is in the design stage that most cost/utility studies either become hOpeless or cross the most crucial barrier to success. The problem must be struc— tured so the right questions are being asked and only the relevant aspects of the environment are considered in the analysis, One group of costs which have been either omitted entirely or incorrectly measured in most previous educational cost studies is the one pertaining to space and physical 9 G. H. Fisher, The Role g: Cost/Utility Analysis i2 Program Budgeting, RM—4279—RC (Santa Monica, Cal.: The Rand Corporation, pp. 8—16, 1964). 29 facilities. Some researchers, apparently assuming that capital account expenditures are sunk and should not be considered when making allocation decisions, have implicitly assumed the cost of building space to be zero by analyzing only operating costs. Others, realizing that the construc— tion of physical facilities consumes resources, have amortized construction costs over a given number of years. Neither of these methods is acceptable in an economic analysis since opportunity costs are not considered. That is, the relevant costs of a given building are those incurred as a result of not devoting the space to alternative uses. The method used to handle these problems in the present study is dis— cussed in Chapters III and IV. Building the model is another important step and, again, Fisher emphasizes that only the most relevant data be included. As the amount of data considered increases, the model becomes more unmanageable. The fundamental purposes of the model are: (1) to develop a meaningful set of relations among objectives, (2) to develop alterna— tive methods of arriving at those objectives, (3) to esti— mate the costs of the alternatives, and (4) to estimate the utility functions of the alternatives. Finally, there is the testing of the validity of the model which is quite 3O often a difficult task. Fisher suggests10 the analyst should attempt to answer whether: (1) the model describes the known facts and situations reasonably well, (2) when the principle parameters involved are varied, the results remain consistent and plausible, (3) the model can handle special cases where there is already some indication as to what the outcome should be, and (4) it can assign causes to known effects. M 10 Ibid., pp. 14-15. CHAPTER III ECONOMIC THEORY AND EDUCATIONAL COSTS Educational Resource Allocation The efficient allocation of scarce resources is one of the central problems of microeconomics. As Robbins has written, microeconomics "...is concerned with that aspect of behavior which arises from the scarcity of means to "1 If the attainment of one set of achieve given ends. ends involves the sacrifice of others, the problem has an economic aspect, an opportunity cost element. Clearly, then, the allocation of educational resources is a problem which deserves the attention of economists. Resources allocation within educational institutions is a unique problem because, unlike business firms in the private sector, there are no built in mechanisms which lead to efficiency. In universities, for example, no profit motive exists and promotions, salary increases, desirable 1Lionel Robbins, The Nature and Significance pfi Economic Science, 2nd Edition (London: Macmillan and Company, 1952). 31 32 appointments, and prestige do not depend on the accumulation of profits. In short, the tendency of inefficient firms to be forced out of the market simply is not a characteristic of the state— —supported higher education industry in the United States.» This characteristic makes the existence of non—market efficiency criteria all the more important. Efficient Resource Use The term efficiency as used in this thesis refers to the situation in which the production of one output cannot be increased without decreasing the production of another output, given the size of the budget. In other words, it is impossible to increase one output without either increasing the quantity of inputs or decreasing an alterna- tive output. Maximizing output given the budget constraint is equivalent to minimizing cost given the level of output, if the size of either the gain or the cost is the same in the two methods. The former analysis was chosen for this study because the problem facing the College of Education Iis to maximize educational services given the constraint of the annual budget. Either the quantity of educational services given quality, or the quality of educational services given quantity, can be maximized in this case, but not in both. Similarly, it is impossible to simultane— ously maximize gain and minimize cost. In comparing two 33 courses of action, X and Y, alternative X might produce a higher output at a lower cost than alternative Y, but this will not hold true when course of action X is compared with all other alternatives. Maximum gain is infinity and minimum cost is zero, a combination that is not attainable. To reach a specified goal, many alternatives may exist, each of them requiring resources. Since the resources are limited and the goals and alternatives are not, a choice mustbe made. Budget allocation under constrained choice may be viewed as the process of choosing methods for channeling limited resources into alternative areas of use. In the process of funding programs which will lead to the attain— ment of long-run institutional objectives, the decision maker is faced with the situation in which there are more competing demands for resources than there are resources available. Classical economic theory provides a framework for making such a choice: under competitive conditions, market processes are adjusted by the constrained choices of consumers. Figure l is a graphical example of the analytical process in which the resources of a university would be distributed under conditions of constrained choice. Each radial line represents a different program area and the D I: D a D =4 Total avanlabb resources A l g } = Funding of manor program areas Figure l. Iterations in the Program Budgeting Proaess Source: Harry Williams, Planning for Effective Resource Allocation £p_Universities (Washington, D.C.z American Council on Education, 1967). p. 5. 35 length of the line segments within the closed figures represents the level of funding allocated for the particu— lar program. The areas enclosed by the three sets of lines in this example are constant, representing a fixed quantity of resources. Therefore, increasing the resources allocated to one program (moving out along one of the radial lines), decreases the resources available for other program areas. Alternatively, moving toward the center on one of the radial lines releases resources for use in other areas. To make an intelligent selection, the relative costs of the alternative courses of action must be known. The real cost of any alternative is whatever must be foregone to adopt that alternative. The cost is the sacrificed alternative opportunity; therefore, the sacri— ficed alternatives may be called the "opportunity costs" of the chosen course of action. The application of this concept to education can be demonstrated quite clearly by the use of indifference curve analysis. Assume that a certain college goal or objective can be accomplished by training and graduating a specified number of students of a given quality on the B.A. level in two curriculum areas: Area A and Area B. The problem facing the decision makers is to determine how resources should be allocated between these two 36 programs. A production possibility curve can be construc— ted representing the maximum number of students who can be trained in Area A and the maximum number that can be trained in Area B, given the budget constraint. The X intercept rep— resents the number of students who could be trained if all resources were devoted to Area A. A corresponding relation- ship exists for the Y intercept and Area B students. Any point on the curve that connects these two points is efficient in the sense that no increase in the output of students in one area can be realized unless either the output of students in the other area is decreased or the input base is expanded. Any points lying below and to the left of the produc- tion possibility Area B curve are obviously not efficient, given the existing budget, but are feasible. That Number of Students is, they are at attainable. Any Number of Students Area A point above and Figure 2. Production Possibility Curve to the right 0f the curve is 37 infeasible or not attainable. The locus of efficient points, therefore, is the boundary between feasible and infeasible points. The concept of opportunity cost is quite apparent in this example. The real cost of training X number of students in Area A is the sacrifice that must be made in the training of students in Area B. The gains that could have been obtained by using the resources in Area B are what have to be given up or sacrificed when the resources are devoted to Area A. Any point on the production possibility curve represents technical efficiency. The curve is a locus of efficient alternatives, but technical efficiency is not a sufficient condition for reaching an economic optimum. At the one extreme there will be no students graduated in Area A, while at the other extreme there will be no students graduated in Area B. To determine which of these extremes, or combination of students from the two areas, will be chosen the preferences of the decision , makers (or those to whom the decision makers are answer— able) must be known. The course of action which is chosen should maxi— mize “quantities" such as the satisfaction of an individual, the profits of a firm, the well—being of a group, or the 38 educational services of a school. In education, the goals or objectives are usually defined by answering questions such as what knowledge and skills should be develOped, and when, where, how, by whom, and for whom. In other words, in a given period of time, what kind of education should be offered for how many students. In the case of the example cited above, after these questions have been answered, various combinations of students in the two areas that will be equally acceptable to the decision makers are determined and plotted on a graph. This locus of points is an indifference curve. Any combination of the two outputs on a given curve represents equal utility, so there is indifference as to which point is chosen. The slopes of the indiffer— ence curves indicate the rate at which the decision makers are willing to trade one output for another. The more of one output that is given up, the more valuable it becomes, and more of the other good is needed to substitute for one unit of it. Two assumptions underlying indiffer— ence theory are (l) the consumer finds both commodities desirable (this ensures a negative slope to the curves and, as between two indifference curves, ensures the higher one is preferred because it contains as much X and more Y, or as much Y and more X), and (2) the commodities are Area B Number of Students 39 continuously divisible (this assumption ensures that the curves will be continuous and not a series of discrete points).2 An infinite number of indifference curves will theoretically exist in any graphical space but only one point of one curve will be tangent to the production possibility curve, assuming convexity to the origin over the relevant ranges of the whole set of indifference curves, and concavity to the origin over the relevant range of the production possibility curve. The point of tangency between the two curves is the optimum point, and is the combination that will be b chosen. III 2George J. Stigler, The Theory 2f Price I (New York: The MacMillan Company, 1966), pp. 50—51. II a1 Number of Students Area A Figure 3. Optimal Allocation of Resources. In the case of Figure 3, the optimum combination is represented by point A (al students in Area A and b1 students in Area B). As indicated above, the equilibrium point must be in a feasible area so all indifference curves above II are irrelevant given the existing produc— tion constraint. No indifference curve below II would be chosen, such as Curve I which crosses the production possibility curve at point B, because by moving toward point A a higher level of utility is achieved. That is, by moving on the production possibility curve toward point A, positions on higher level indifference curves are attained. At the point of tangency, the marginal rate of substitution (the rate at which the decision makers Egg willing to substitute A for B) is equal to the marginal rate of transformation (the rate at which they ggfl_substi— tute A for B). Unless this point is reached, it is possible to change the allocation of resources so as to achieve a higher level of utility. Indifference curve analysis is helpful in concep— tualizing the process of determining the amounts of each of two products to be produced. The isoquant approach to production theory is helpful in conceptualizing the process of determining what combination of resources will produce a given output in the most efficient manner. Resource B 41 An isoquant is a locus of points representing different combinations of two inputs with which a given amount of product can be produced. At each point on Isoquant I in Figure 4 total product is the same, just as on a given indifference curve total utility is the same. At point X, al units of Resource A and b1 units of Resource B are required to produce the output. The slope of the isoquant between any two of its points is equal to the ratio of the marginal products of A and B. Isocost lines (such as CC, DD, and BE in Figure 4) show the various combinations of inputs that can be pur- chased for a specific outlay, y given the prices of the inputs. If the level of output to be produced has been determined, the problem is to com- bine resources in the most efficient a E D C Resource A Figure 4. Isoquant and Set of Three Isocost Lines. manner so as to 42 minimize the cost of producing the output. The problem can be solved graphically by the isoquant—isocost approach. The cost level represented by BE in Figure 4 is not feasible because output level I cannot be produced by any combination of inputs available for this outlay. Cost level CC is possible but will not be chosen because by moving from either Point Y or Point Z to Point X, the same level of output can be obtained at a lower cost. The optimum combination of resources is given by the point of tangency between the isocost curve and the isoquant. At this point, the marginal rate of technical substitution of A for B equals the ratio of the price of A to the price of B. That is, the last dollar spent on one input yields the same marginal product as the last dollar spent on the other input. Since appropriations for productive resources (faculty salaries, supplies and services, and equipment) in institutional subunits of Michigan State University cannot be shifted from one account to another, the appli— cability of this analysis in the short run is limited. However, to the extent that budget officials allow changes at the beginning of each fiscal year in the proportion of the total budget accounted for by the various accounts, this analysis is valid for long run resource allocation decisions. 43 Assume a given number of students can be presented a certain amount of academic material by any one of several combinations of faculty members and computers. An isoquant can be constructed reflecting these combinations, and an isocost curve can be drawn indicating the relative costs of these factors of production. The point at which these two curves are tangent represents that combination of faculty members and computers which can present the material to the students in the most efficient or least-cost manner. Similar problems can be handled involving the trade—off values between other sets of factors of production such as faculty members and graduate assistants. The methods used in Chapter IV to determine the costs of degree programs and the implications drawn in Chapter VI are based on the theoretical concepts outlined in this Chapter. CHAPTER IV DERIVATION OF EDUCATIONAL DEGREE COSTS The justification for an economist devoting his efforts to educational resource allocation problems was established in the last chapter. In order to make this type of analysis, the costs of the various educational programs must be determined. Being a part of the overall economic problem, therefore, the development of a method of costing educational programs is also an area germane to economic research. The initial problem is to determine what costs are to be included in the analysis, and the units in which the costs are to be presented. Qg§5§_§g be Included All costs — both direct and indirect — that are incurred at any point in time as a result of implementing a given course of action are to be included in the analysis. If a cost will be incurred at some point in the future as 44 45 a result of adopting an alternative or course of action, it must be considered. Some assets, such as a classroom building, are likely to be inherited from the past. These are sunk costs and are not relevant in comparisons of alternative methods, of accomplishing objectives, unless they have value in other present or future uses. That is, the_ use of these assets might involve opportunity costs, and make it necessary to forego opportunities of using them to reach other objectives. For example, the building space that would be used for classrooms in one plan might be used in another plan as storage space. If this is the case, the net value of the space for storage is an oppor— tunity cost that should be included in the costs of the program requiring the space for classrooms. The essential point is that the value of the Space as classrooms is not related to the historical construction cost of the build- ing. The only costs and benefits of interest to the economic analyst in comparing alternatives are future costs and benefits. As was implied above, this assumes that the opportunity costs associated with using inherited assets are included in the "future costs" category. 46 Measurement pf Costs If the decision makers are to determine policies which achieve a certain objective at minimum cost, they must consider the costs that provide the real constraint. For example, if only one input is the real constraint, the costs of all alternative courses of action should be expressed in terms of that one input. If several individual inputs are limited, costs should be expressed in terms of those inputs. If there is a general monetary constraint with no limits on the various inputs, costs should be expressed in dollars. Dollar costs indicate what must be given up in order to adopt a particular policy. The prices of different items show the rates at which they can be substituted for one another. Admittedly, the dollar costs measure real sacrifices accurately only to the extent that they accurately reflect the relative scarcity of resources. There is, however, no close substitute for the use of dollar costs in this study. Costs in terms of professorial expertise and numbers of secretaries could be very misleading. To say that a BA degree in one area costs so many professors, secretaries, and equipment does not say how these resources can be traded off to produce an MA in the same field. Expressing the relative values 47 in terms of dollars facilitates better comparisons, there- fore, aids in planning future trade—offs. Another reason for using dollars as the basic unit of measurement in this study is that the annual college budget is expressed in dollar terms; also, no significant inelasticities exist in educational resource markets. As was pointed out above, one exception to this might be the existence of tenured faculty members in an academic area or field of study which is to be dropped from the College program. Determininngducational Costs The goal of this study is to determine and compare the costs (and the factors that affect them) of programs that are already in operation rather than programs that are in the planning stage of development. This reduces the element of uncertainty in the figures which are derived, since they are based on experience, not judgments of what might happen. The research methods used are the same, however, whether the analysis is of the planning variety or of the re—evaluation variety. The total costs incurred in the production of a series of degree programs are the ultimate figures to be derived. Since the purpose of the study is to provide a 48 decision making tool for the administrators of a college with a fixed resource base, only costs internal to the college will be considered. Other costs, such as those incurred by the university administration and foregone student earnings, are parts of the total social cost of educating the students, but should have no direct effect on resource allocation within the college. These costs should enter the analysis at higher decision—making levels such as the Board of Trustees and the State Legislature. It is assumed throughout this study that no College of Education student credit hours were produced on a con— tributed basis, that is, taught by a professor who was not paid by the College of Education for his services. An example of this situation is a university administrator teaching a course for the Department of Administration and Higher Education but not receiving a salary for teaching. This also applies to the direction of doctoral dissertation research where the advisor might actually be contributing his time because it is on an overload basis. The results of the study, therefore, will indicate the costs that would be incurred by the College of Education if it had to pay for all courses taught with a College of Education title. 49 Each of the departments in the College of Education offers a degree program on one or more of four different levels: (1) bachelors, (2) masters, (3) educational specialist, and (4) doctorate. In some departments more than one program of study is offered at each level; the Department of Secondary Education and Curriculum offers programs in both Secondary Education and Curriculum. Eighteen of these programs (three on the bachelors level, ten on the masters level, and five on the doctoral level) were selected for this study on the basis of the availa— bility of transcripts. A sample of ten recent graduates in each area was selected from a stratified population on a systematic basis. The cost of each individual degree was determined by summing the following component categories: (1) instruc— tional costs, (2) faculty support costs, (3) research costs, (4) space costs and (5) administrative costs. The deriva- tion of the costs in each of these categories is discussed below. Instructional Costs The instructional costs of each course offered by the College of Education during the academic year 1967-68 were determined by dividing the appropriate faculty SO salaries by twelve under the assumption that each faculty member receives four (4) assignments per academic quarter, and teaching one course is equivalent to one assignment.l This quotient was divided by the number of students in the class to arrive at the cost per student. The class size and faculty salary figures were based on the academic year 1967-68 since the data were available for this period, and the assumption was that variations over time are negligible. The class size, faculty salary, and instructional cost per student credit hour figures for each course taught in the College of Education (exclud— ing the Department of Health, Physical Education, and Recreation) during the 1967—68 academic year are presented in Appendix A. If the course was taught more than once during this period, the class sizes and professorial salaries are averages. Since identifying the course numbers could reveal the salaries of individual faculty members, the courses are coded. The costs per student for the appropriate courses were summed to arrive at the total instructional cost for the degree. Algebraically, instructional costs for each degree were derived as in equation (1): 1The salaries of those faculty members who are employed on a twelve—month basis were adjusted to a ten- month base. 51 (1) n 1c . Z (75%;?) i = 1 Where: IC = Instructional costs FS = Faculty salary 8 Number of students in the course N = Number of College of Education courses in program of study Faculty Support Costs The costs of supporting services, such as equipment, secretarial, office space, and supplies and services (see Table l) were aggregated for each department and allocated Table 1. Secretary—Faculty Ratios (Sec/Fac), Average Annual Professorial and Secretarial Equipment Costs (Eq/Prof and Eq/Sec), Office Space Allocations, Number of Full-Time Equi- valent General Fund Faculty Members (FTEF). Supplies and Services Expenditures Per Full—Time Equivalent General Fund Faculty Member (SS/FTEF), and Secretarial Salaries Per Full- Time Equivalent Faculty Member (Sec Sal/FTEF) by Department, College of Education, Academic Year 1967-68 Eq/ Eq/ Office 55/ Sec Sal/ Department Sec/ Prof* Sec* Space FTEF FTEF FTEF Fac i§l_ (§) 5Q.Ft (S) (S) Counseling .3 470 742 3911 25 112 1638 Administration .5 470 742 3142 16 112 2952 Secondary .2 470 742 3902 38 112 961 Elementary .16 470 742 3410 41 112 804 *Communication with members of the College of Education Office of Administrative services indicated the following average equipment allocation per professor: l desk - $155; 2 chairs — $95; 2 files - $114; 2 bookcases - $106. The average equipment allocation per secretary is as follows: 1 desk — $160; 1 chair _ $50; 1 typewriter — $430; 1 file - $57; and l stencil file — $45. These costs were amortized over five years. Source: Office of the Dean and Office of Administrative Services, College of Education, Michigan State University, January 1969. 52 among the full—time equivalent faculty members in each department. These faculty support figures were converted to a cost per student per course basis and summed to arrive at a supporting services cost per degree by the following method. Secretarial equipment and salary expenditures were multiplied by the secretary—faculty ratio in each depart— ment to determine what proportion should be allocated to each professor.2 The number of square feet of building space allowed each department was divided by the number of full-time equivalent general fund faculty members to arrive at a space allocation per professor figure. This figure was multiplied by $5, the estimated rental cost per square foot to determine the costs of providing office space per professor. Since the variation in supplies and services expenditures among departments is negligible, the total supplies and services costs of the College were divided by the number of full—time equivalent general fund faculty members in the College to provide a supplies and services cost figure per faculty member. The assumption is that all professors in a given department are provided with equal amounts of equipment, secretarial services, 2The secretary—faculty ratio for each department was determined by dividing the number of departmental sec— retaries by the number of departmental full-time equivalent general fund faculty members. I‘— 53 office space, and supplies and services. Also, continuing to operate under the assumption that each professor receives four assignments during each of the three academic quarters, one-twelfth of each of the above figures was divided by the number of students in the course under consideration. Algebraically, this process is described in equation (2): n (2) PE (SE)(S£F) + (Sa1)(s§F) FSC: Z (12)(S) (12)(S) (12)(S) i = 1 (DOS + DFTEGFF)($5) + (12)(S) ss - i (CFTEGFF) ] * E12)(sfl L Where: FSC = Faculty Support Costs PE = Average annual equipment costs per professor S = Number of students in the course SE = Average annual equipment costs per secretary S/F = Secretary—faculty ratio DOS = Departmental office space allocation (square feet) DFTEGFF = Number of departmental full—time equivalent general fund faculty members Annual College supplies and services expenditures CFTEGFF = Number of College full—time equiva— , lent general fund faculty members Sal = Average departmental secretary salaries n = Number of College of Education courses in program of study SS 54 Research ggsgs The costs of the research phase of the doctoral programs were derived by dividing one—twelfth of the average annual faculty salary in the appropriate department by four, under the assumption that the direction of four completed dissertations during any academic quarter is equivalent to the teaching of one course. In equation form the process is as follows: FS RC = (12) (4) Where: RC = Research costs of degree FS = Annual faculty salary The average departmental salary figures used in the calcu— lations were as follows: (1) Administration and Higher Education - $11,141, (2) Counseling, Personnel Services and Educational Psychology — $12,007, (3) Elementary and Special Education — $11,675, and (4) Secondary Education and Curriculum — $11,231. These averages were derived from the six highest academic ranks listed in Table 2. Space Costs The determination of classroom space costs is a case where the opportunity cost principle is quite apparent. The historical costs of classroom buildings have no rele— vance. The costs of the space should be considered only 55 Table 2. Average Ten—Month Salary Figures, by Department and Rank, College of Education, Michigan State University, 1967—68 Counseling, Administration Personnel Elementary Secondary Rank and Higher Services & and Education Education Educational Special and Psychology Education Curriculum Professor 16,498 15,914 14,858 14,800 Associate Professor 12,596 13,175 12,193 12,088 Assistant Professor 9,920 10,540 11,593 11,155 Instructor 5,550 —- 8,533 8,516 Specialist -- -— 11,200 9,600 Lecturer —- 8,400 -- —- Assistant Instructor 4,200 4,305 4,165 4,200 Graduate Assistant 3,150 2,889 2,873 3,129 Clerical 4,650 4,084 3,986 4,093 Source: Office of the Dean, College of Education, Michigan State University, January 1969 to the extent that the space has value in alternative uses. The annual rental values of comparable space in the Lansing— East Lansing area is the closest approximation of the econ— omic costs incurred in the use of space. On the basis of discussions with members of the Michigan State University 56 Office of Space Utilization, it was assumed that the average size of a "classroom student station” was 13 square feet, which would rent commercially at $5 per square foot. It was further assumed that the average student station pro- vides 1200 hours of service per year (30 hours per week for forty weeks at 100 percent of capacity). The normal three hour course will consume 30 hours per term or 2.5 percent of the annual space service. Therefore, $1.62 was charged as a space cost to each student in each three hour course taught in a classroom. To arrive at space costs (SC) per degree, this figure was multiplied by the number of three hour courses taken by the student. Administrative Costs College administrative costs were allocated to the various courses on the basis of student credit hour production. All salaries and other expenses incurred by the three offices were included in the final cost figures and are presented in Table 3. The expenses of the Dean's Office were allocated over all student credit hours pro— duced by the College, while the expenses of the Graduate Student Affairs Office and the Undergraduate Student Affairs Office were charged off to graduate and undergraduate Students, respectively, on the basis of student credit 57 Table 3. Administrative Expenses: Undergraduate Student Affairs Office (UGSAO), Graduate Student Affairs Office (GSAO), and Dean's Office; Student Credit Hours: Graduate, Undergraduate, and Total; Administrative Costs per Student Credit Hour: Graduate, Undergraduate, Overall; College of Education, Michigan State University, ' Academic Year 1967—68 Office Total Expenses Student Credit Hours Cost/SCH UGSAO $ 67,660 130,920 $ .51 GSAO 42,029 36,743 1.14 Dean‘s Office 149,186 167,663 .89 Source: Office of the Dean, College of Education, Michigan State University, January 1959. hours consumed. This method of deriving administrative costs for a given degree can be represented algebraically as follows: ACG = GSAO expenses + Dean's expenses X SCH Grad. SCH C of E Total SCH ACU = UGSAO expenses + Dean s expenses X SCH UG SCH C of E Total SCH Where: ACG = Administrative costs (Graduate students) AC = Administrative costs (Undergraduate students) GSAO expenses = Total academic year expenses incurred by the Graduate Student Affairs Office Grad. SCH = Total number of graduate student credit hours produced during academic year Dean's expenses = Total expenses incurred by Dean's Office during academic year C of E Total SCH = Total student credit hours produced by College of Education during academic year UGSAO expenses = Total academic year expenses incurred by the Undergraduate Student Affairs Office UGSCH = Total number of undergraduate student credit hours produced during academic year SCH = College of Education student credit hours in student's program 58 Most degree candidates take courses College of Education. No cost figures were these costs were external to the College of Therefore, the total cost to the College of outside the imputed since Education. Education for any given degree is the sum of the above five categories, that is: TC = IC + FSC + RC + SC + AC. Where: TC = Total Degree Costs IC = Instructional Costs FSC = Faculty Support Costs RC = Research Costs SC = Space Costs AC = Administrative Costs The cost calculation method presented in this Chapter was used to determine the cost of each of the programs in the sample (Appendix B). These degree costs were used as dependent variables in the regression analysis which is discussed in the next chapter. CHAPTER V STATISTICAL ANALYSIS The method used to derive the costs of the degree programs in the College of Education was presented in the last Chapter. In this Chapter, the total costs (and com— ponent costs) of the programs are presented along with the statistical analysis used to test the hypothesis. College pf_Education Degree Costs To say that, on the average, the cost of degree programs offered by the College of Education is §_number of dollars would be highly misleading and meaningless due to the wide variety of degree program offerings, and variations in their costs. The programs must be disag— gregated with respect to level of study if the cost figures are to have any significance, and further subdivided by curriculum to achieve a greater level of precision. Table 4 presents the average total cost of degree programs on the three levels under consideration. 59 60 mwma xuwscmb .xuamnm>aco wumum cmmanoaz .coHumuspm mo wmmaaoo .moue>uum m>aumubmHCHEp< mo woflwmo mcu pcm ammo on» mo muflwwo wcu Eonw pmcamgbo sump Eonm pmumHSUHwo "muusom «Illlllllllllfllllllllll owns as can so How as has e 58 N am .a.:a Nmo . c- as mom 0 mm as an m cm .<.z mmw i an m» mOm m Om Va om m mm .¢.m uwou X umou X umoo X umoo x umou X umou mumoo Hmuoe cunmmmom coHuosuumCH unommsm qusumm m>flumnumACHEp< mommm Hm>wq mmcnmma .xuflmno>HcD mumum cmmficuflz .coflumuspm mo mmoaaou .Hw>mq UHEmpmud an .HMDOB mo bemused pcm mumHHoo cfl .mumoo Hmuoe pcm .noummmmm .HmcoauusuumCH .uuommsm mufisomm .msflumuumHCHEp< .mommm .v mHQmB 61 As might be expected, the total cost of the doctorate is the highest of the three programs, being over twice the cost of either of the other two degree categories. The percentage of total costs accounted for by instruction drops by about 17 percent (13 or 14 percentage points) when moving from the B.A. and M.A. levels to the Ph.D. level (from 78 percent and 77 percent for the B.A. and M.A., respectively, to 64 percent for the Ph.D.). The change in percentage accounted for by instruc— tion is generated primarily by the addition of the research costs category which, on the doctoral level, accounts for 17 percent. The Faculty Support Costs category appears to be an increasingly important cost component as the level of study increases. The trend in faculty support costs is largely the result of the typically smaller class size on the graduate level where the support costs per faculty member for the course under consideration are allocated over a smaller number of students. There is an inverse relation between the level of study and the percentage of total costs accounted for by administrative costs. Since administrative costs were calculated on the basis of the number of student credit hours in the degree program, the relation between administrative expenses and the proportion of total costs is explained by the larger number of College 62 of Education student credit hours in the typical under- graduate program. Within each program level, variations in cost exist (see Table 5). On the B.A. level, the total cost of a degree in Special Education, on the average, is substantially higher than either of the other two curricula. Two degree candidate requirements in the Special Education program explain the high costs: (1) a series of high—cost courses, and (2) 15 credit hours of in-field student teaching over the normal certification requirement. Total costs of the individual degrees among the several curricula on the M.A. level range from $527 (Agricultural Education) to $805 (College Personnel Work). On the doctoral level, the range of costs of the various degree programs is $326 (Educational Administration — $1,561 to Curriculum - $1,235). Regression Analysis To determine if the cost differences among the degree programs on the three levels and the several curricula are statistically significant, and to isolate the factors that explain the variations, the data were subjected to step—wise multivariate regression analysis. The use of this technique in making statistical inferences implies 63 whoa womwomwwo any can cmwn wcu mo mummmo on» Eoum pucamuno supp Eoum pmumasuamo ”condom omma ma mmw mm mmm ea mam 0 mm H mm mm umaonm «N 00 Hmm m M» m BAH N Nm pm ammucmawam Homa Va NMN up vmo ma OMN m Hm N vN .caEpd .pm Hams ma 0mm as ohm on 04H m as N am .>nmm .mumm a .pasw mMNH ma «MN no ONm b on o om N NN EnasuHuuso Team Ham v n on mam m mm 0a mm m ma EsHsuHuusu was i - me mam as as as me m an .rusma .nm mom - - as mom NH Nod as mm m mm xuos .mson .aaum .Haoo use i i as was ma Nos as as m cm .cHsea .um ave . . am How a me as mu m on .>umm mama a case vwm I I we HNv n mm ea Nm v NN pm xumbcoEmHm mam . s as «Nu a me NH as m as am sumacoomm ems - . om smm a as ea an m we on undo a mum nmm . - an ass m we as am m ma .um .ma saw u - as mes a me OH mm 4 mm .smcH mcsnmmm himum aka I i as Hon m as ms me 6 mm on sumacmswam osm - u as gas m em ms mas m me .am Housman Ham . - ms was m as as om m Hm comma canmlmwm ..<.m umoo Hmuoe umou Hmuoa uwoo Hmuoe umoo Hmuoe umoo Hmuoa umoo Hobos mo X we x no X mo x mo X Enasuaunsu Hmuoa Lonmmmmm 20auosuumCH buommsm muasomm m>HuMMuchafipd mommm pcm Hm>wq mousomfl .sunnnm>ucs mumum :mwurcuz .coflumospm mo mmmHHOO .Edasofluuso new Hm>0q an .HMDOB mo unmoumm 0cm wumaaoo ca .mumou owumma Hmuos 6cm .noummmwm .HMCOADUDuumcH .uuommsm Nuasomm .mbaumuumflcafipm .00QO .m waama 64 the following assumptions with regard to the residuals:1 (1) they are clustered around a rectilinear (not curved) plane, (2) they are independent of each other, (3) they are uniform in their scatter and, for the small samples, (4) they are normally distributed.2 A simple method of checking the fulfillment of these assumptions is to plot the residuals against the variables. Three variables (Number of College of Education Student Credit Hours, Average Class Size, and Total Degree Costs) were plotted against the residuals. Observation of Table 6 and Figures 4, 5, and 6 indicates approximately uniform scatter over the range of the variables under consideration, and there is no evidence of curvilinearity. Therefore, it can be concluded that the assumptions of linearity and homoscedas— ticity have been fulfilled. Multiple regression analysis measures the joint effect of a specified number of variables on an independent variable. The multiple regression equation represents the l The residual (z = Y—Yc) gives the variation in degree costs not explained by the multiple regression equation. 2William A. Spurr and Charles P. Bonini, Statistical Analysis for Business Decisions. (Homewood, 111.: Richard D. Irwin, Inc., 1967). 65 Table 6. Student Credit Hours (SCH), Class Size, Total Cost, and Regression Residuals, by Student Observation, Degree Program Cost Study, College of Education, Michigan State University, 1969 Observation SCH. Class Size Total Cost Residual 1 45 150 496 118.61 2 59 119 643 15.41 3 49 133 461 —13.89 4 58 131 583 6.22 5 55 130 551 16.17 6 86 103 742 —3l9.42 7 57 130 574 4.76 8 58 131 583 6.22 9 58 116 652 25.28 10 47 172 419 110.89 11 84 79 985 — 3.04 12 84 100 807 —111.13 13 78 111 843 26.65 14 89 77 974 —75.01 15 79 119 812 11.43 16 87 97 995 34.29 17 79 112 844 20.12 18 80 106 910 55.28 19 86 90 1048 74.85 20 82 106 893 —33.43 21 58 157 457 —20.52 22 59 164 539 73.92 23 60 107 591 —74.71 24 46 157 419 71.81 25 57 126 519 —50.86 26 49 145 447 27.2/ 27 54 128 505 —25.62 28 46 157 419 71.81 29 50 146 435 7.74 31 39 27 620 — 1.69 32 42 36 552 —54.55 34 42 38 526 —38.37 35 37 28 542 -54.64 36 39 27 620 23.67 37 42 35 670 77.87 38 48 35 637 5.08 39 39 39 673 —68.14 66 Observation SCH Class Size Total Cost Residual 41 21 26 623 113.40 42 31 33 428 —120.92 43 25 38 444 -23.10 44 32 32 510 — 7.44 45 21 3 300 -111.44 46 32 32 512 -15.59 47 35 27 710 97.65 48 25 28 444 —56.40 49 34 37 612 66.64 50 34 20 682 57.21 51 34 21 863 155.55 52 30 32 610 8.00 53 36 32 708 15.45 54 34 31 645 -51.98 55 33 29 632 -60.78 56 34 31 645 —29.14 57 31 30 635 - 9.89 58 33 36 635 -11.63 59 37 35 634 -82.25 60 42 29 842 66.68 61 31 32 541 1.33 62 36 29 680 93.80 63 33 32 541 -20.38 64 31 30 541 — 5.32 65 38 30 423 -88.73 66 34 26 631 38.77 67 36 41 470 -33.10 68 33 32 541 — 5.16 69 36 29 698 94.04 70 33 39 440 —75.24 71 33 39 429 —16.35 72 45 36 591 - 4.82 73 30 37 450 35.64 74 45 36 591 33.23 75 42 41 428 —118.59 76 45 34 702 99.51 77 42 35 666 114.65 78 42 38 590 53.71 79 39 40 557 24.43 80 45 39 543 —42.84 81 3O 23 621 -67.65 82 51 25 898 61.49 84 34 30 527 —l38.66 85 45 29 837 33.38 Observation 67 Class Size Total Cost 563 744 897 771 846 Residual ~110.27 16.25 265.98 13.84 48.72 —108.15 — 8.30 —9l.ll —100.77 -77.86 —107.86 —l31.11 -143.10 —114.00 —27.19 —90.49 82.58 10.63 55.79 —42.21 —70.41 ~19.60 88.59 43.20 142.20 73.65 23.88 53.49 77.73 38.72 77.30 Observation 68 Class Size Total Cost 1292 1072 1292 1019 1250 1102 1078 1426 1339 1464 1518 1641 1391 1104 1208 1559 1246 1188 1438 1575 1575 1388 1723 1409 Residual —29.87 —165.34 8.18 -222.40 —47.70 —218.84 113.08 —34.90 Observation 176 69 Class Size Total Cost 1448 1402 1458 1402 1409 Residual —44.42 —12.64 98.53 -12.64 —34.90 RESIDUAL 200 180 I60 140 120 -120 -160 '160 Figure 5. Regression Eduation Residuals Plotted Against Average . u 0 . I I O ' a o O ‘ O O . . . . :0 . . . o .. u 0' . C . I . .- ~ . .. .. C O 0 ~ . c‘ c ' o o ' O o ' 7 o ‘ . .. . O . . e . . ' . . z . : . o ' . o o o . . o . . o. . o O O '- C . O . o o r ‘_'. . v o o . o .0 C U C . Q C . . . ' . Q to . .. . . O n U a o ILA " <3 un o In :2 vi 0 r\ o o c: o o e rs es an on .¢ -3 vs vs C) wn 6: (fi .3 us u—t .4 u-‘ .4 ..d H Class Size Class Size Variable. Degree Program Cost Study, College of Education. Michigan State University, 1969. I35 IWAL 200 o v 180 160 1100 . 120 o e e . . 100 . so ' ‘ n a . . : . . . 60 ‘ . . O o : ‘ . y o o . ’00 . o 0 ‘ . . ‘ 1 ° 0 e . . 20 ' ' . ' ’ ‘ . u e ° . e o o . i ' . . o ' o . o ' . o I ‘ . e e .0 . O I . . . . . . C . . . '20 : : e o o . ' - . : ' . . o 4.0 ‘ ° C Q . : o . z e . -60 . e 5 o ’ -80 . o . D . C -100 . ‘ . o 7 . . .120 , ' . o e .140 ' . ‘ '160 ' -180 in o n o to b in ‘ o T Figure 6. Student Credit Hours Regression Equation Residuals Plotted Against Student Credit Hours Variable, Degree Program Cost Study, College of Education, Michigan State Univeraity, 1969. 130 160 140 120 80 60 40 -120 olbo -160 -180 72 Figure 7. Regression Equation Residuals Plotted Against Total Cost Variable, Degree Program Cost Study, College of Education, Michigan State University, 1969. e ‘ e ' o I . ' O .0 o .. .. . o. .. ' o o ‘ ° . o O O O s .. . .0. e o. . o e . ' e I . ' o. n. : . o O .0. 0 e. o. ' o . e 0 . ..e: o . e o ' . ° 0 C. o .0 e ' . ' e 0 ° . . e o 000‘ o . e . . e o . ' I. . O. at. e 0 c .7. . u 0. .0 ‘o e .. o e e . e e e n _ O o e ' o . e o o o o O o C e e o I O. W O O O O O 0 fl ssosoogosossss .3 an up r~ no o~ —* 0V 6° <9 U5 so r~ .4 an ed —4 .4 r4 ed ,ed Total Coot 73 influence exerted simultaneously by the independent vari- ables on the dependent variable. In stepwise regression analysis, the independent variables enter the regression equation in the order of ability to reduce the unexplained error sum of squares of the dependent variable. The inde— pendent variable which causes the greatest reduction will enter the equation first, the variable causing the next greatest reduction enters second, and so forth until all variables which have a statistically significant effect on the dependent variable have entered the equation.3 The regression equation was of the general form YC = a + lel + b2x2 + ... + bnxn In the terminal step of this analysis (Appendix D) the appropriate regression and standard error coefficients were as follows: YC = 421.7 — 377.6 x1 + 202.5 x2 + 136.7 X6 + (110.9) (117.5) (32.9) 149.3 x + 211.5 x + 164.7 X10 + 146.1 X + 66.3 x12 + (26.4) (23.8) (32.9) (33.6) (26.3) 10.0 xl3 _ 3.4 x14 + 2.9 x15 R2 = .941 (0.8) (0.7) (1.1) 3"Statistically significant” as used here means that differences of the magnitude obtained would be expected to occur only rarely if no difference existed in the population. In some cases, statistically significant differences might be found with no corresponding economic significance. An analysis indicating that two different varieties of wheat have statis- tically significant differences in yield (even at an alpha level of less than one percent) has no economic significance if the difference in average yield is one pound per hundred 74 Where: YC = Cost of degree x1 = M.A. x2 = Ph.D. X6 = Business and Distributive Education x8 = Guidance and Personnel Services x9 = Educational Administration xlo = Student Personnel Work xll = Educational Psychology x12 = Curriculum xl3 = Number of College of Education Student Credit Hours X14 = Average Class Size x15 = Ratio of Graduate to Total College of Education Student Credit Hours The regression coefficients are interpreted in the normal manner. For example, the equation states that, on the average, the degree costs will increase by ten dollars with each additional College of Education student credit hour in the program (x13) and decrease by $3.40, on the average, as the average class size (x14) increases by one student. The policy implications of the regression coef— ficients are discussed in Chapter VI. The regression equation was significant in explain— ing variations in total costs at this point with an F value of 243.39. The multiple correlation coefficient was .970; acres. Alternatively, a difference of ten bushels per acre might have economic significance even though it was not stat- istically significant at a given alpha level. The term "significant” when used in this thesis, refers to Vstatistical significance." (See Lester V. Manderscheid, 52 Introduction to Statistical Hypothesis Testing} East Lansing: Department of Agricultural Economics, Michigan State University, 1964, p. 29) ‘71—.-. . 75 therefore, an R2 value of .94 was obtained. That is, 94 percent of the variation in total degree costs is explained by the regression equation. The number of College of Education student credit hours, the ratio of graduate to total student credit hours, and the average claSS size were found to have statistically significant effects on the costs of degree programs (t values of 11.3113, - 4.7838, and 2.4049, respectively). The first variable to enter the equation was number two, the dummy variable4 for the doctoral level of study. The multiple correlation coefficient was .902, so 81 percent of the variation in degree program costs was explained by the Ph.D. level of study when it was the only independent variable considered. The number of College of Education student credit hours was the second variable to enter the equation. These two variables explained 85 percent of the variation in degree costs. Class size was the third , variable to enter and, when the three were considered together, they explained 88 percent of the variation in cost. 4Dummy variables are often used to represent quali— tative variables in regression analysis. In this thesis, level of study and curriculum were represented by dummy variables with the B.A. level and Elementary Education being the variables which were dropped. 76 Level of Study and Curriculum Variables It must be emphasized that contradictions may exist between the whole and the parts in a statistical analysis. As indicated above, the differences in degree costs between the doctoral level and the B.A. level are statistically significant. It does not follow that level of study, in general, is a statistically significant factor affecting degree program costs. To determine if level of study and curriculum were statistically significant cost factors, the following test was used:5 ESSl — E852 /d.f. ESSl /d.f. Where: ESSl = Error Sum of Squares of the regres- sion equation including dummy vari— ables for level and curriculum. E882 = Error Sum of Squares of regression equation excluding dummy variables of factor under consideration (i.e., either level or curriculum). d.f. = degrees of freedom In testing for the significance of level of study, the null and alternative hypotheses were as follows: HO: B1 = B2 = 0 (level has no effect) HA: Bl # B2 # 0 (level has an effect) 5 J. Johnston, Econometric Methods (New York: McGraw- Hill, Inc., 1963), Pp. 136-137. 77 Similarly, the null and alternative hypotheses for testing the significance of curriculum differences were as follows: HO: B3 = B4 = Bn = 0 (curriculum has no effect) HA: B3 # B4 ¢ Bn f 0 (curriculum has an effect) An F value of 391.0 was found in testing for the effects of level differences on cost, and an F value of 11.6 was found when testing for the effects of curriculum differences on cost. Both of these values were significant at the 5 percent level; therefore, the null hypothesis was rejected in both cases. That is, both the level of study and curriculum have a statistically significant effect on degree program costs. As indicated ab0ve, dummy variables were used to isolate the effects of level of study and curriculum on total cost. Both the M.A. and Ph.D. variables were found to be significant at the 5 percent level. This indicates that there was a statistically significant difference in cost between the B.A. level and the M.A. level, and also between the B.A. level and the Ph.D_ level, but no informa— tion about the relationship between the M.A. and Ph.D. was available. To arrive at an approximation of this relation— ship, a modified Student t test was used. It was an approxi— mation in the sense that no account was taken of covariance 78 in the equation, so problems of transitivity might arise. The test was of the following form: b — b t _ l 2 — 2 2 S + S b 1 b2 where: b = regression coefficient S = standard error A t value of 3.6 was obtained indicating that a statistically significant difference probably exists between M.A. and Ph.D. program costs at the 5 percent level. The following curriculum variables were included in the regression equation's eleventh step: Business and Distributive Education, Guidance and Personnel Services, Educational Administration, Student Personnel Work, Educational Psychology, and Curriculum. The t values of each of these variables were significant, indicating that the costs of providing degrees in these areas were signi— ficantly different from the cost of a degree in Elementary Education. To determine if differences of statistical significance existed between sets of these variables, the ‘ t test described above was applied. The results of the t test are contained in Table 7 At the 5 percent level, the cost differences between the following sets of degrees were found to be significant: (1) Educational Administration — Business and Distributive 79 Education, (2) Curriculum - Business and Distributive Education, (3) Educational Administration - Guidance and Personnel Services, (4) Curriculum - Guidance and Personnel Services, (5) Curriculum - Educational Administration, (6) Curriculum — Student Personnel Work, and (7) Curriculum — Educational Psychology. Table 7. Matrix of t Values Generated by Tests for Signifi— cant Differences at 5 percent Level, by Combinations of Degree Programs, Degree Program Cost Study, College of Education, Michigan State University, January 1969. Bus & Dist Guid Student Department Education & Pers. Ed Admin Pers. Ed. Psych Guidance & Personnel .30 Educational Administration 1.85 1.77 Student Personnel .63 .38 1.12 Educational Psychology .22 .07 1.58 .40 Curriculum 1.70 2.24 4.14 2.35 1.90 Summary The general conclusion of this chapter is that the null hypothesis of the thesis was rejected. That is, it was concluded that the following factors were statistically significant at the 5 percent level in explaining differences 80 in degree program costs in the College of Education, Michigan State University: (1) class size, (2) level of study, (3) curriculum, (4) number of College of Education student credit hours in the degree program, and (5) ratio of graduate to total College of Education student credit hours in the degree program. The policy implications of the degree costs and statistical findings presented in this Chapter are discussed in detail in Chapter VI. CHAPTER VI SUMMARY AND IMPLICATIONS In recent years, the demand for educational services on the university level has increased greatly and every indication is that the trend will continue. Additionally, it is likely that the demand for these educational services will increase at a faster rate than the supply, the major limitation on supply being the budget constraint. Faced with this economic problem, decision makers in institutions of higher learning must allocate their limited resources as efficiently as possible to provide for the attainment of feasible institutional objectives. In order to make intelligent decisions with regard to the allocation of scarce resources, they must know the alternative courses of action that will accomplish institutional objectives, and the economic costs involved in providing each alternative. The purpose of this study was to provide a basis for obtaining the cost information needed to make sound, 81 82 economic decisions in the process of allocating educational resources . Summary The relevant literature in the area of educational costs was reviewed in Chapter II. This review indicated that most of the previous researchers in this area had either simply divided total expenditures by some unit of educational output or disaggregated the cost data into such general categories that the final unit cost figures were relatively meaningless. In most cases, the costs were simply accounting data that did not reflect the value of resources in terms of alternative uses. The present study attempted to remedy this deficiency. The costs which must be included in an economic analysis were outlined in Chapter III along with the conceptual framework within which constrained choice problems are solved. Consumer indifference theory was uSed to demonstrate the method of choosing the point of optimum allocation when resources are limited and wants are insatiable. The isoquant approach to production theory and its application to long run educational resource allo— cation was reviewed. The opportunity cost principle was outlined and applied to educational costing problems. 83 Based on the economic principles outlined in Chapter III, the method of determining the costs of educational programs in the College of Education was presented in Chapter IV. The types of costs to be included in an econ— omic analysis as well as the units in which the costs should be measured were determined before the actual cost— ing method was developed. All costs (regardless of the point in time at which they were incurred) that result from adopting a particular course of action must be included. Since the supply function of educational inputs faced by the individual college appears to have relatively few bottlenecks, the major limitation on expanded resource use is the annual budget. Therefore, the dollar was chosen as the unit of measurement in which costs would be pre— sented. The total cost of each degree was found by summing five component cost categories: (1) instructional costs, (2) faculty support costs, (3) research costs, (4) space costs, and (5) administrative costs. The total costs (and component costs) of the several degree programs in the sample were presented in Chapter V along with the statistical analysis used to test the hypothesis. On the average, the cost incurred by the College of Education in producing a Ph.D. degree ($1399) was about twice the cost incurred in the production of 84 either a B.A. degree ($653) or M.A. degree ($652). When degree cost variations within each level were considered, however, these generalizations lost much of their meaning. The cost of an average B.A. degree in Special Education ($910) was almost twice that of a B.A. degree in Elementary Education ($479), and $105 more than the most costly degree on the M.A. level. The cost ranges within each level of study were as follows: (1) B.A. - $431, (2) M.A. - $278, and (3) Ph.D. — $326. The hypothesis was that the following factors were statistically significant at the five percent level in explaining degree program cost differences in the College of Education: (1) class size, (2) program level (i.e., B.A., M.A., Ph.D.), (3) curriculum, (4) number of College of Education student credit hours in the degree program, and (5) the ratio of graduate to total student credit hours in the degree program. Each of these factors was found to be statistically significant in explaining cost differences at the five percent level, so the null hypothe— sis was rejected. Implications It was pointed out in Chapter V that a difference exists between statistical significance and economic sig- nificance. From an economic point of view, a knowledge of IIIII[::::_____________________________1 85 differences in costs is necessary to determine which alter— natives must be given up in order to achieve an objective with other alternatives. The costs derived in this study should be useful to the administrators in making decisions such as determining the number of students to be admitted to degree programs on each of the four levels in each of the curriculum areas. In making decisions of this type, the marginal cost per degree is the relevant cost to be considered. The costs derived in this study were average costs; however, operating under the assumption that no scale economies or diseconomies will result from changing the number of students in a given program with quality constant, average costs may be used. This substitution is possible because a horizontal average cost curve is equal. to the curve marginal to it at each level of output. Communication with Dr. Floyd Reeves, a pioneer researcher in the field of educational costs, indicated that no con— clusive research results have been published with regard to economies of scale in subunits of institutions of higher learning. Based on his experience, however, he suggested that in the range of operation, very few scale economies are available to an institutional subunit such as the College of Education, if the quality of educational services are held constant. If the student—teacher ratio, l I. r: 86 average class size, the quality of faculty, the physical facilities, and supporting services are held constant, the per unit cost changes resulting from institutional size changes should be minimal. This would not necessarily be the case for the entire university due to large expendi- tures of the sunk cost variety. Some examples of expenditures in this category are those for extracurricular activities, health services, police services, and university administration. The quality constant condition is of major importance to the assumption of constant costs. If additional students are handled by increasing class size with no corresponding increase in faculty, administrators, or supporting facilities, economies of class size would obviously cause decreases in instructional costs. The regression equation presented in Chapter V reveals that, on the average, degree costs decrease by $3.40 in response to an increase in class size of one student. Therefore, to the extent that the minimization of costs is one of the primary goals of the College, there would be an incentive to increase the size of classes. For I the purpose of comparing the costs of degree programs in this study, however, the assumption is that the decision makers are able to overcome this incentive and maintain the size of any given class at a constant level. 87 The regression equation also indicated that, on the average, costs increased $10 for each additional College of Education credit hour in the degree program. An obvious cost—reducing administrative action would be to cause a decrease in the ratio of College of Education student credit hours to total student credit hours in the average program of study. This action could be implemented without changing the number of degrees pro— duced in any given academic area or reducing the number of student credit hours required for graduation by eliminating courses which are similar to courses pre- sented by other colleges in the University. It would seem that unnecessary duplication might exist in areas such as psychology, sociology, and statistics. Certainly some courses relating specifically to educational research methods, for example, are not only desirable, but necessary for a well—balanced, complete degree program. The courses which should be considered for elimination are those in which general principles are covered, and are already being adequately handled by a department of another college. As indicated in Chapter I, many factors other than those of an economic nature enter into decisions of this type, but it is imperative that administrators be aware of the effect that the luxury of course duplication has on degree costs. EII:;______________________________ 88 If the decision makers in the College of Education decide that the production of degrees in one academic area should be expanded, the production of degrees in another area (or areas) will have to be reduced assuming a con— stant budget.1 The cost figures derived in the present study provide information regarding what benefits (degrees) have to be sacrificed in one academic area to receive a given level of benefits (degrees) in another area. If it is determined that more students in the area of Student Personnel Work are to be admitted to the Master's degree program, and the additional resources required to expand the degree program are to be obtained by reducing the level of degree production in Agricultural Education on the M.A. level, the data presented in Chapter V indicate that for every six student positions removed from agricultural education, about four can be added to the Student Personnel Work degree program without additional resources. Relations of this type can be made between and among all of the degrees for which costs were calculated. 1Personnel in the College of Education are engaged in resource consuming activities other than teaching such as research and public services. In this study only degree programs are considered, but the same analysis would apply in allocating resources among a number of activities. 89 As indicated in previous chapters, one of the goals of this thesis was to remedy some of the deficiencies found in previous educational cost studies. To the extent that the costs derived in these studies have been inaccurate and have been used in the decision—making process, they might have led to the misallocation of resources. Resource misallocation occurred in the sense that inaccurate and imprecise cost figures do not reflect the true economic value of factors of production, and when inaccurate values are assigned to resources, maximum efficiency is impossible. It is only when an educational institution combines its resources in the most efficient manner that a given number of students can be provided a certain quality education at a minimum cost. Stated alternatively, it is only when resources are combined in the most efficient manner that the maximum number of students can be provided a certain quality of education at a given cost. The contention is not that the present study has eliminated all of the problems encountered in measuring educational costs and, therefore, provided educational decision makers with the data necessary to obtain optimal resource allocation positions. It is hoped, however, that the methods developed will permit a movement toward the optimum solution, and provide the basis for future research which will allow further movements toward optimality. BIBLIOGRAPHY BIBLIOGRAPHY Adams, Don. Educational Planning. Syracuse, N.Y.: Syracuse University Press, 1964. Benson, Charles S. Perspectives pp_the Economics pf_Education: Readings pp School Finance and Management. Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 1963. Benson, Charles 8. School and the Economic System. The Foundation of Education Series. Chicago: Science Research Associates, Inc., 1966. Benson, Charles S. The Economics of Public Education. ————.———-—————.—.——.——— Boston: Houghton Mifflin Company, 1961. Blaug, M. Economics 2: Education - A_Selected Annotated Bibliography. New York: Perganion Press, 1966. Brammer, Lowell Howard. A_Technigue £g£_ppg Study pf Unit Costs pf Higher Education ip_College§_pf Teacher Education. Ed.D. Dissertation. Bloomington, Ind.: School of Education, Indiana University, 1954. Burke, Arvid J. Defensible Spending for Public Schools. New York: Columbia University Press, 1943. Burkhead, Jesse. Public School Finance: Economics and Politics: Syracuse, N.Y.: Syracuse University Press, 1964. Butter, Irene. Economics pf Graduate Education: Ag Exploratory Study. Ann Arbor: Department of Economics, University of Michigan, November 1966. California and Western Conference Cost and Statistical Study. (for the year 1954—55) New York: Fund for the Advancement of Education, 1963. 9O 91 Calkins, Ralph Nelson. The Unit Costs p£_Programs ingigher Education. Ph.D. Dissertation. New York: Department of Economics, Columbia University, 1963. Carter, C. F. "The Economics of Higher Education," Manchester School pf_Economics and Social Studies, Vol. 33, No. 1, January 1965. Chambers, M. M. Financing Higher Education. Washington, D.C.: Center for Applied Research in Education, 1963. Clark, Harold F. Cost and Quality ip_Public Education. The Economics and Politics of Public Education, Series No. 5. Syracuse: Syracuse University Press, 1963. Daniené: Andre: Higher Education lg the American Economy. New York: Random House, 1964. Doi, James. "The Proper Use of Faculty Load Studies," Studies pf_College Faculty. Regional Institute on Institutional Research, University of California, December 1961. Donovan, George F. Selected Problems ip_Administration pf American Higher Education. Washington: The Catholic University of America Press, 1964. Ezekiel, Mordecai and Karl Fox. Methods g: Correlation and Rggression Analysis. New York: John Wiley and Sons, 1959. Firmin, Peter, Seymour Goodman, Thomas Hendricks, James Linn. University Cost Structure gpg_Behavior. New Orleans, La.: Department of Economics and Graduate School of Business Administration, Tulane University, August 1967. Fisher, G. H. The Role pf_Cost Utility Analysis 13 Program Budgeting, Memorandum RM-4279-RC. Santa Monica, California: The Rand Corporation, September 1964. Harris, Seymour E. (ed.) Education and Public Policy. Berkeley, California: McCutchan Publishing Corp., 1965. 92 Harris, Seymour E. (ed.) Higher Education $3 the United States: The Economic Problems. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1960. Harris, Seymour E. Higher Education: Resources and Finance. New York: McGraw-Hill Book Company, 1962. Hirschl, Harry H. Some Economic Considerations and 1 Procedure for g_University Cost Study. Unpublished Master's Thesis, Department of Economics, Purdue University, 1965. Hitch, Charles J. and Roland McKean. The Economics pf Defense ip_the Nuclear Age. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard Universiterress, 1965. Hull, L. E. and D. A. McWhirter. Unit Cost Analysis Procedures, Indiana University. Bloomington, Ind.: Indiana University Foundation, May, 1964. Hungate, Thad. A_New Basis pf Support for Higher Education. New York: Columbia University, 1957. Hungate, Thad. Finance lp_Educational Management pf Colleges and Universities. New York: Columbia University Press, 1954. Hungate, Thad. Management ip_Higher Education. New York: Teachers College, Columbia University, 1964. Judy, Richard and Jack Levine. A Tool for Educational Administrators. Toronto: University of Toronto Press, 1965. Keeger, Dexter. Financing Higher Education. New York; McGraw—Hill Book Company, 1959. Kerr, Clark. The Uses pf Egg Upiygggggy. New York; John Wiley and Sons, 1959. Kershaw, J. A. and R. N. McKean. Systems Analysis and Education, Memorandum RM-2473—FF. Santa M65125, California: The Rand Corporation, October 1959. Koenig, Herman, et.al. A Systems Approach £p_Higher Education. East Lansing, Mich.: Division of Engineering Research, Michigan State University, 1966. 93 Koenig, Hermand and Martin Keeney. A Prototype Planning and Resource Allocation Program for Higher Education, 'Pfesented at the Symposium on OpEfEtions Analysis of Education, U. S. Office of Education, November 1967. Liebhafsky, H. H. The Nature of Price Theory. Homewood, —._—-—-~___———..___— 111.: Dorsey Press, Inc., 1963“ McCullough, J. D. Cost Analysis for Planning — Programming - Budgeting Cost-Benefit Studies. Santa Monica, California: The Rand Corporation P—3479, November 1966. McKean, Roland. Public Spending. New York: McGraw—Hill Book Company, 1968. Meeth, L. Richard. Selected issues in Higher Education. New York: Teachers College Press, Columbia University, 1965. ”~me Nos. 10- 12. Lansing: State of Michigan, 1958. Miller, James, Jr. State Budgeting for Higher Education. Michigan Governmental Studies, No. 45. Ann Arbor: Institute of Public Administration, The University of Michigan, 1964. Millett, John. Financing Higher Education in the United __—.-—_~______.—__._.____._______ States. New York: Columbia University Press, 1952. Mushkin, Selma J. (ed.) Economics of Higher Education. Washington, D.C.: U. S. Depaftment of Health, Education and Welfare, U.S. Government Printing Office, 1962. Nance, Paul K. Business Management Practices ip_Se1ected Colleges and Universities. Washington, D.C.: U. S. Government Printing Office, 1966. National Committee on Standards for Institutions of Higher Education, Financial Reports for Colleges and Universities. 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Philadelphia: Management Science Center, Wharton School of Finance and Commerce, University of Pennsylvania, March 1967. Sisson, Roger L. Some Results of a Simulation of an Urban Stevens, Edwin B. and Edward C. Elliott. Unit Costs pf Higher Education. American Council on Education. New York: MacMillan Company, 1925. Stuart, Douglas Allen. Th3 Application 9: Formula Cost Analysis Procedures pp_ppp_Budgeting p£_Academic Departments. Ph. D. Dissertation, Department of Administration and Higher Education, Michigan State University, 1966. Systems for Measuring and Reporting the Resources and Activities pf Colleges and Universities. NSF 67—15. Washington, D.C.: National Science Foundation, 1967. Vaizey, John. The Economics 2: Education. Great Britain: The Free Press of Glencoe, 1962. 95 Van den Hoag, Ernest. Education g§_gp_lndustry. New York: Augustus M. Kelly, 1956. Wasserman, William. Education Price and Quantity Index. Economics and Politics of Public Education Series, No. 12. Syracuse: Syracuse University Press, 1963. Williams, Harry. Planning for Effective Resource Allocation ip_Universities. Washington, D.C.: American Council on Education, 1966. Zemach, Rita. A_State Space Model fpp Resource Allocation in Higher Education. Presented at 1967 IEEE Systems Science and Cybernetics Conference, Boston, Mass., October 1967. APPENDICES Appendix A. Average Class Size, Average Annual (Ten Month) Professorial Salary, Average Professorial Salary Per Course, and Instructional Cost Per Student by Course, College of Education, Michigan State University, Academic Year 1967—68 Salary ($) Coded Average Instructional Course Class Average Allocated Cost Per Number Size Annual to thls St d nt Course %$? A 78 8,533 711 9.21 B 22 6,000 500 22.71 C 24 12,088 1007 41.94 12,088 + 12* D 500 12,518 + 3 1007 + 4172 10.35 E 20 3,129 1043 52.14 F 46 13,175 1098 23.86 G 110 12,500 1041 9.50 H 97 11,500 958 11.26 I 34 11,231 936 27.51 J 17 12,088 1007 59.22 K 13 11,593 966 74.28 L 46 10, 540 878 19. 08 M 39 12,007 1000 25.62 N 13 11,500 958 73.68 0 44 11,675 973 22.11 P 21 6,000 500 23.79 Q 27 6,000 500 18.51 R 27 11,675 973 41.10 S 103 11,231 936 9.09 T ‘ 20 12,088 1007 50.34 U 112 12,000 1000 30.00 V 37 13,000 1083 29.25 W 99 15,914 1326 13.38 x 381 151.6451: : :2. 929 + 3881 12.60 Y 34 11,231 936 27.51 Z 32 13,000 1083 33.84 AA 37 11,155 929 27.57 BB 13 13,175 1097 84.36 96 97 Salary . Coded Average Average Allocated Instructional Course Class Annual to this COSt Per Number Size Course Student cc 43 12,000 1000 ‘23.25 DD 31 10,540 878 28.32 BE 35 13,500 1125 32.13 FF 13 12,596 1049 80.70 GG 22 12,007 1000 45.45 HH 28 14,800 1233 44.00 11 27 14,800 1233 45.66 JJ 20 13,500 1125 56.25 KK 25 11,231 936 37.44 LL 32 11,675 973 30.39 MM 25 11,155 929 37.14 NN 16 14,800 1233 77.07 00 14 9,000 750 53.55 pp 24 14,000 1166 48.57 Q0 93 11,700 975 10.47 RR 23 12,000 1000 43.47 88 20 14,000 1166 58.29 TT 12 6,500 541 45.06 UU 27 13,000 1082 45.72 vv 35 13,000 1082 31.00 ww 13 12,500 1041 80.07 xx 35 2,889 963 34.35 YY 62 12,000 1000 16.11 22 24 11,800 983 40.95 A1 10 12,150 1010 101.98 B1 25 11,500 958 38.31 cl 10 12,500 1040 103.98 D1 12 12,750 1062 88.50 El 7 12,500 1040 148.50 F1 20 13,000 1083 54.12 G1 10 13,000 1083 108.50 H1 12 13,000 1083 90.00 I1 15 12,000 983 65.50 *Graduate Assistants' salaries are divided by three under the assumption that one assignment is received per academic quarter. 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OON I O H mOO.I mOO.I mOO.I mOo.I mOO.I mSH. OmO.I O H Omo.I Om0.I Omo.I mmO.I OmH.I OHN. S H Omo.I Omo.I OmO.I OmH.I OHN. O H Omo.I Omo.I OmH.I OHN. m H Omo.I OmH.I OHN. e H omH.I HSN.I m , H 36.. N . H H IIIIIIIIIIIII‘ $3 £68638: 33m .6 232 83833 Ho 6 m.HHou Bow :8 moum mouwoo .mHmSHms< :OHOmmnOmm OHMHHO>HHHSZ Boom .mustonwwoo coHumHmHHoo OHOEHO mo anumz .O RHOCOOO< Emu . . r1. Appendix D. Printout of Eleven Steps of Stepwise Multiple Regression Analysis, Degree Program Cost Study, College of Education, Michigan State University, 1969 Step Number 1 Enter Variable 2 Standard Error of Estimate = 160.635 Multiple Correlation Coefficient = 0.902 Goodness of Fit, F ( 1,178 ) = 781.2175 Constant Term = 651.5693 Std Dev Var Coeff Coeff t Value 2 747.1508 26.7313 27.9503 Step Number 2 Enter Variable 13 Standard Error of Estimate = 147.113 Multiple Correlation Coefficient = 0.919 Goodness of Fit, F ( 2, 177 ) = 483.3261 Constant Term = 447.1672 Std Dev Var Coeff Coeff t Value 2 741.7893 24.4978 30.2797 13 4.7222 0.7956 ”5.9350 Step Number 3 Enter Variable 14 Standard Error of Estimate = 120.675 Multiple Correlation Coefficient = 0.946 Goodness of Fit, F ( 3, 176) = 507.8908 Constant Term = 404.9010 Std Dev Var Coeff Coeff t Value 2 642.8428 22.7218 28.2918 13 9.3707 0.8210 11.4125 14 — 2.9858 0.3200 — 9.3302 106 Beta Coeff 0.9024 Beta Coeff 0.8959 0.1756 Beta Coeff 0.7764 0.3484 —0.3063 107 Step Number 4 Enter Variable 9 Standard Error of Estimate = 110.167 Multiple Correlation Coefficient = 0.956 Goodness of Fit, F ( 4,175 ) = 466.0889 Constant Term = 376.0509 Std Dev Var Coeff Coeff t Value Beta Coeff 2 596.2890 22.1404 26.9321 0.7202 9 144.7795 24.0718 6.0144 0.1455 13 9.7541 0.7522 12.9658 0.3627 14 — 2.9649 0.2921 —10.1477 —0.3042 Step Number 5 Enter Variable 8 Standard Error of Estimate = 106.314 Multiple Correlation Coefficient = 0.959 Goodness of Fit, F ( 5, 174 ) = 403.1676 Constant Term = 384.9497 Std Dev Var Coeff Coeff t Value Beta Coeff 2 577.9395 21.9252 26.3596 0.6980 8 100.8201 27.0293 3.7300 0.0854 9 169.4817 24.1555 7.0162 0.1703 13 10.0635 0.7307 13.7721 0.3742 14 — 2.8887 0.2826 -10.2184 —0.2964 Step Number 6 Enter Variable 10 Standard Error of Estimate = 102.942 Multiple Correlation Coefficient = 0.962 Goodness of Fit, F ( 6, 173) = 360.4418 Constant Term = 337.7097 Std Dev Var Coeff Coeff t Value Beta Coeff 2 591.2601 21.5592 27.4248 0.7141 8 110.2506 26.3067 4.1909 0.0934 9 176.6885 23.4774 7.5258 0.1775 10 123.9532 34.9394 3.5476 0.0765 13 9.7998 0.7114 13.7749 0.3644 14 - 2.6663 0.2808 —9.4950 —O.2735 Step Number 7 Standard Error of Estimate Multiple Correlation Coefficient 108 Enter Variable 6 Goodness of Fit, F (7,172) Constant Term = Coeff 599.2850 106.2115 120.8854 185.0806 137.2834 9.9886 - 2.5686 Step Number 8 313.6789 Std Dev Coeff 21.1979 34.1972 25.9003 23.0706 34.3668 0.6969 0.2758 100.463 = 0.964 325.7691 t Value 28.2708 3.1058 4.6673 8.0223 3.9946 14.3321 —9.3119 Enter Variable 11 Standard Error of Estimate = 97.904 Multiple Correlation Coefficient = 0.966 Goodness of Fit, F ( 8, 171) = 301.4061 Constant Term = 290.8834 Std Dev Var Coeff Coeff t Value 2 610.0286 20.9326 29.1425 6 122.3294 33.7096 3.6289 8 132.5016 25.5037 5.1953 9 194.2015 22.6653 8.5682 10 153.3275 33.8695 4.5270 11 106.6365 33.5404 3.1793 13 10.0546 0.6795 14.7969 14 — 2.4246 0.2726 -8.8941 Beta Coeff 0.7238 0.0656 0.1024 0.1860 0.0848 0.3714 —0.2635 Beta Coeff 0.7368 0.0755 0.1122 0.1951 0.0947 0,0658 0.3739 -0.2487 109 Step Number 9 Enter Variable 12 Standard Error of Estimate = 95.860 Multiple Correlation Coefficient = 0.967 Goodness of Fit, F ( 9,170) = 280.3919 Constant Term = 253.6898 Std Dev Var Coeff Coeff t Value Beta Coeff 2 595.7973 21.0777 28.2666 0.7196 6 143.0605 33.7749 4.2356 0.0883 8 159.9924 26.7183 5.9881 0.1355 9 222.5375 24.2576 9.1738 0.2236 10 171.4272 33.7475 5.0796 0.1058 11 126.0691 33.5202 3.7609 0.0778 12 77.2341 26.6976 2.8929 0.0654 13 10.4268 0.6776 15.3867 0.3877 14 — 2.3050 0.2701 —8.5337 -0.2365 Step Number 10 Enter Variable 1 Standard Error of Estimate = 94.578 Multiple Correlation Coefficient = 0.968 Goodness of Fit, F (10, 169) = 259.8017 Constant Term = 530.1026 Std Dev Var Coeff Coeff t Value Beta Coeff 1 —184.1617 77.5581 — 2.3745 —0.2467 2 411.2477 80.4555 5.1114 0.4967 6 138.3057 33.3835 4.1429 0.0854 8 147.9406 26.8453 5.5108 0.1253 9 219.4546 23.9685 9.1559 0.2205 10 171.4688 33.2963 5.1497 0.1059 11 126.4967 33.0726 3.8248 0.0781 12 66.9675 26.6932 2.5087 0.0567 13 9.2345 0.8361 11.0443 0.3434 14 — 3.8240 0.6930 — 5.5179 -0.3923 Euty. Step Number 11 Standard Error of Estimate Coeff —377.5770 202.4992 136.6665 149.2520 211.4653, 164.7210 146.0646 66.3350 10.0035 — 3.3843 2.8647 110 Enter Variable 15 421.6934 Std Dev Coeff 110.9851 117.5971 32.9279 26.4788 23.8687 32.9545 33.6138 26.3246 0.8843 0.7074 1.1911 168) 93.268 Multiple Correlation Coefficient Goodness of Fit, F ( 11, Constant Term = 0.970 243.3946 t Value — 3.4020 1.7219 4.1504 5.6366 8.8595 4.9984 4.3453 2.5198 11.3113 -4.7838 2.4049 Beta Coeff —0.5059 0.2445 0.0844 0.1264 0.2125 0.1017 0.0902 0.0562 0.3720 —0.3472 0.2683 v. In \. ! 1 . ,w I II. [I I‘ ..1 A v. . . .111 I .. . , , ...} .. I, i..1..ll.i.1|!l!1|l|ll.litddl.l¢3':l v)“ .u..0| ul.’){§il1lllclfi!!§.l.fi.lltlll.ll1lz“ill~!\lrll 6206 I'll I‘llul ||II||I. Illlll 'Illlul I||.|| IIIIII IIIIII 1 ZQJM‘MEWG 111111111 1|