"“41 “T" A. I I ‘glkgssvtglédivv.51?- . 21”,“? "I THE MIGRATORY RESPONSE TO A NATURAL DISASTER THE 1972 MANAGUAN EARTHQUAKE Thesis for the Degree of M. A. MICHIGAN STATE UNIVERSITY ' KEVIN FRANCIS BYRNES 1977 2-; _ LJL',‘:";-— 4—21. an a“ u m” “H .q nfi Nu uh am a. .m mammaammmmmmm --a ammecamaauaam n-~n---- wuuumumommmmm mammnmmmmmmmm .--~.~—.-e nannnnnnnnmnn NN--~N-~N~ __~__~______ N .fi H. o~ m~ n. "K - _~ m~ mm am “ Sc 99::cage:acaaaaccecoccoaaacaaacoca—ocaeeaeaaa ‘— a: '1 D ‘1’ Ln v-w Ail an a, an an“ NNN ._~ mm «m ”a b. an ID 1:. «a r‘ An 0') O, m m J 3 .r' a JD m w an 'I’ r- '~ O odds 5 ouhzam < nv ”v a» u. w. on mm .q ~n mammmmmmm a an .a an a: mum mm a» m. a“ man mmIIamaaaaommmawauumaaammmmmmwmmmmm -H-~n-------~.--~_~_-- mmommmamamaumammmmmmmaauoumuawmumwa mmaTmm“mamnmmnanmmaammnaaammmmnmmmm .v...........¢......vv...v.....Iwe. an annnnmnnnmnnnmnmmnnmmmmnnmmnnmmn ---~NNNN--~N-N----NN~NNN __________—_______________7___I____ «a _. am .w :m ~n am an ‘a an N“ ”m on m. a. H. a. m» «e m. n. "u ”q a» a» km on an .n mm ~n .n on an -“ cocoaaa « I u r I“.— .. .L hN q ABSTRACT THE MIGRATORY RESPONSE TO A NATIONAL DISASTER: THE 1972 MANAGUAN EARTHQUAKE BY Kevin Francis Byrnes The balance of economic and social opportunity has favored urban development in Latin America for many years. Increasingly, however, the growth of large metropolitan areas has been viewed as a problem in those developing nations which are struggling to provide adequate education, employment, health care, and foodstuffs for this rapidly- expanding population. To a large extent, this growth is due to rural-urban migration flows which carry poor, ill- iterate rural area residents and unemployed villagers into the primate city. In this process, the rural migrant's perception of both opportunities and the quality of life of the urban environments are important considerations to understand a major force which is shaping the future of the developing world. The purpose of this study is two-fold; first, to de- termine the validity of certain generalizations regarding the stage migration process in the context of Managua as a Central American primate city and, second, to describe and explain the migration systems, both pre- and post- earthquake, of four secondary cities located near Managua to determine what effect the disaster may have had on the Kevin Francis Byrnes attractiveness of these cities as intervening opportunities in the Managua migration system. An historical review of the urban development of Nicaragua shows that colonial centralization policies con- tributed to the evolution of Managua as a primate city. Despite numerous occurrences of severe earthquakes, the city continued to grow, and the establishment of the strong, autocratic administration of the Somoza family enhanced the concentration of wealth and power in the national capital. Statistical analysis of survey data collected after the disaster and provided by government authorities shows that the pre-earthquake migration system fits the classic stage migration pattern. Migrants tended to leave secondary cities for Managua, while they were replaced by in-migrants from rural areas. The only trace of direct rural-urban migration into the capital occurred from those rural areas adjacent to Managua. Unlike a similar study of Guatemala City, there is little indication that the stage migration process has broken down in more recent years. After the earthquake, among those factors which were important in explaining the choice of resettlement location were distance from Managua, the presence of family relations at the point of destination, and the importance of economic considerations to the refugee migrant. The pervasive nature of the stage migration process as seen in both the primate and secondary migration systems suggests that Managua has attained a threshold size and Kevin Francis Byrnes importance which may sustain continued high growth rates despite government attempts to de-centralize the urban pop- ulation. Rural migrants are still seeking local secondary city destinations in preference to the national capital, thereby demonstrating a normal stage migration pattern. However, if Managua continues to grow without taking mea- sures to decentralize the national economy among several growth pole areas, the capital may become an intervening opportunity in the migration system of many secondary cities and be inundated by a flood of rural migrants seek- ing "the good life." THE MIGRATORY RESPONSE TO A NATURAL DISASTER: THE 1972 MANAGUAN EARTHQUAKE BY Kevin Francis Byrnes A THESIS Submitted to Michigan State University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF ARTS Department of Geography 1977 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS To remember everyone that gave me support and en- couragement in my master's program and, in particular, this thesis is a difficult charge. The biggest debt of gratitude I owe to Dr. Robert N. Thomas, Assistant Dir- ector of the Latin American Studies Center, Michigan State University, for his unbounded encouragement and advice in all aspects of my academic and personal life. His constructive criticism and patience throughout the writing of the thesis were much appreciated. Our many encounters, in academics, sports, and late-night "bull sessions" over a beer will be warmly remembered. Dr. Clarence W. Minkel, Associate Dean of the Brazil-M.E.C. Project in Brazil, as a supporter of the M.S.U. Latin American Studies Program, gave his enthusi- astic endorsement of my research program. While I was working in Managua, the personal attention which he paid to my research and the advice which he offered were a great help at a time when I was confused and discouraged. To Harvey Williams, and all those others associated with the conception of the Scientific Investigation Center of Nicaragua (SICNIC), I owe a debt of gratitude for the invitation to work in Nicaragua under SICNIC sponsorship. ii In this regard, I would also like to thank Mr. Jaime Incer, Dean of Science at the Universidad Centro-Americana, Mana- gua, for the warm welcome and hospitality which he extended to me on behalf of the university. Moreover, the cooper- ation and assistance which I received from Dr. David Sar- faty, Project Leader of the O.A.S. De-Centralization Program in Managua, and Sra. Rosa Natalia de Montiel, re- searcher with the O.A.S. team, were invaluable during my brief residence in Managua. There are many people in East Lansing to whom I owe my thanks. I am indebted to Dr. Lawrence M. Sommers, Chairman of the Department of Geography, Michigan State University, for the financial assistance which made my graduate studies possible. Drs. Michael Chubb and Joe Darden, as my professors and later as members of my com- mittee, taught me much about geographic methodology and urban theory, for which I am grateful. My personal thanks to Mr. Richard McCarius, Sr., for his constructure personal criticism and the financial support which he provided during the three years of my graduate program. His personal generosity, good advice, and unusual sense of humor will always be well-remembered. To my many close friends, the residents of "Chateau Jerome" and the "Geogapers," I am indebted for the friend- ship and humor which they shared with me, making the dif— ficult times easier to bear and the jubilant moments all the sweeter in their enjoyment. iii To my brother, Kerry, and my sister, Kathryn, my love and thanks for their quiet respect and encouragement. My deepest, and eternal, love and thanks are re- served for my parents, Francis and Ethel Byrnes. The loving support and advice which they have always given was never more appreciated than during this time of self- discovery and self—realization. For this support, they have my ever-lasting love and appreciation. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS Page LIST OF TABLES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Vi LIST OF FIGURES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Vii CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . The Process of Urbanization . . . . . . . . . The Colonial History and Urban Growth of Latin America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 Background History of the Study Area . . . . 11 The Growth of Managua: The Evolution of a Primate City . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 The Impact of the 1972 Earthquake . . . . . . 18 II REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE . . . . . . . . . . 21 General Migration Theory . . . . . . . . . . 22 The Decision-to-Migrate as a Behavioral Process . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 Cross-Cultural Comparisons of the Migration Process . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 Migration and Natural Disasters . . . . . . . 33 III THE RESEARCH PROBLEM . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 The Research Hypotheses . . . . . . . . . . . 39 The Data Set . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40 IV THE ROLE OF THREE FACTORS IN THE STAGE MIGRATION PROCESS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45 The Hypotheses Re-stated . . . . . . . . . . 46 Data and Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48 V THE ROLE OF THE SECONDARY CITY . . . . . . . 59 Hypotheses and Assumptions . . . . . . . . . 60 Data and Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62 VI SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS . . . . . . . . . . . 75 APPENDIX: SURVEY QUESTIONNAIRE . . . . . . . . . . 80 BIBLIOGRAPHY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87 LIST OF TABLES Table Page 1. Urban and Rural Population Distribution for the World and Major Areas, 1975 . . . . . . . 4 2. Estimated Annual Percentage Rates of Growth in Total Urban and Rural Population, 1960- 1970 and 1970—1975 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 3. Number and Population of Million-Cities, and Percentage of Total Population in Million- Cities, 1960 and 1975, in the World and Major Areas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 4. Latin America: Demographic Indicators, 1960-1975 0 o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o 8 5. Nicaraguan Population Totals and Intercensal Variations by Department, 1950-1971 . . . . . 17 6. Simple Correlation Matrix of Managua Data . . 43 7. Stage Migration to Managua . . . . . . . . . 52 vi Figure 10. ll. 12. LIST OF FIGURES Political Divisions of Nicaragua . Managua Study Area . Department Out-Migration to Managua (by Last Place of Residence) . Rural Participation in the Managuan Migra- tion Field . . . . . . Migration Incentives in the Managuan Migra- tion Field . . . . . . The Incidence of Stage Secondary Cities . . . Rural Participation in Field 0 O O O O O O 0 Rural Participation in tion Field . . . . . . Rural Participation in tion Field . . . . . . Rural Participation in tion Field 0 0 O O O 0 The Influence of Family Tie Location on the Decision-to-Migrate . The Influence of Economic Factors on the Decision-to-Migrate . vii Migration to Four Masaya Migration Granada Migra- Tipitapa Migra— Jinotepe Migra— Page 15 42 50 54 57 64 65 66 68 71 73 74 CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION Over the past decade, the urbanization of the world's population has attracted considerable attention from scholars and politicians, alike. The growth of large metropolitan urban areas is traced often to the economic advantages of this settlement pattern. Large cities pro- vide economies-of-scale attractive to manufacturers seeking a source of labor and a market for their product. More- over, location in a major city is important to minimize the costs of distance between the point of production and the market place. Additionally, large cities support spec- ialized services and higher-order goods. On the other hand, urban primacy can have deleterious effects as well. The domination of a nation's economy by a primate city may lead to a form of "internal colonialism" (Stavenhagen, 1970, p. 257). In such an instance, a dualis- tic economy develops in which the rich urbanites prosper at the expense of the rural sector. National development policies which blindly favor or encourage the rapid growth of primate cities and high rates of urbanization without careful planning, can result in un- desirable conditions. In both developed and developing countries, primate cities can be characterized as sprawl- ing, chaotic, congested urban centers wherein the provi- sion and extension of goods and services to residents of the city may occur by opting either for higher social or economic costs or both. For example, the early decision to develop and encourage the use of public transportation facilities would have far-reaching impact on the over-all social and economic costs of providing transportation in urban areas. Another area in which pro-urban development policies can have important impact is that of housing. Inadequate housing conditions appear prevalent in most primate cities. The processes which affect the location and growth of these sub-standard housing areas may differ greatly, but their residents share certain common characteristics. Here fam- ilies tend to have lower incomes, lower levels of education, and, in some areas, higher crime rates than for the city as a whole. Frequently the residents of lower-class housing are victims of a social or cultural system which discrimin— ates against those less able to compete favorably in the capitalistic labor market. Since World War II, the United States has experienced a phenomenon often referred to as the "flight to the sub- urbs," which has had significant effects on the social and economic characteristics of many major cities. After the war, economic conditions favored the wide-spread growth of suburban residential communities. In time, commercial and industrial site planners found it advantageous to move out to the suburbs where they could attract a skilled labor force and cater to the growing suburban consumer market. As the suburbs prospered, the central cities suffered an economic decline with the loss of businesses, industry, and population. The slow erosion of the tax base resulting from this exodus caused the development of "urban blight," or the creation of urban slums in the cen- tral city. Conversely, in developing countries, the flight from the rural sector and small towns has determined, in part, the residential, commercial, and industrial location pat- terns of the urban centers. Due primarily to the influx of migrants, many urban areas are growing faster than the urban economy can absorb their increasing population. The reasons for this major rural-urban movement are many, but most are attributed to conditions in the origin and des- tination areas for the migrant families. Factors "pushing" residents out of rural areas include poor sanitary condi- tions and inadequate health care facilities, natural haz- ards (drought, flood, and earthquake), rural isolation, low agricultural productivity, stagnation of the local economy and repressive social customs in some traditional rural societies. The larger urban areas, on the other hand, offer health care and educational facilities; cen- tralized markets, offering a broad range of goods and ser- vices; urban employment opportunities and the comparative security of the urban areas in countries where rural violence may be common. What the migrants may find in the primate cities, to the outside observer, may seem no better than what they left behind, but in their own minds, the primate city is "where the action is." The Process of Urbanization One of the most significant processes shaping today's world is the rapid urbanization of the world's population. This process is very important in the developing areas of the world where countries strive to establish urban and technological societies modeled after those of North Amer- ica and Western Europe. The proportion of population for major regions of the world which can be classified as urban, varies from 22.7 percent in South Asia to 76.5 percent in North America (Table 1). Latin America ranks fifth (60.1%), Table 1. Urban and Rural Population Distributions for the World and Major Areas, 1975 Urban Rural Percentage of Area Population Population Urban in Total (Millions) (Millions) Population 1975 1975 1975 World Total 1,548 2,439 38.8 Europe 318 156 67.1 USSR - 154 101 60.5 Northern America 181 56 76.5 Oceania 15 6 71.2 South Asia 288 980 22.7 East Asia 199 706 20.8 Africa 96 305 24.0 Latin America 196 130 60.1 Source: Adapted by author from: United Nations, The World Population Situation in 1970-1975 and its LongeRange Implications, Population Studies, No. 56, p. 33. very close to the Soviet Union (60.5%). However, Latin America's relatively high level of urbanization is a recent occurrence. From 1960 to 1970, Africa and Latin America had the highest regional urban growth rates in the world (Table 2.). However, official Table 2. Estimated Annual Percentage Rates of Growth in Total Urban and Rural Population, 1960-1970 and 1970-1975 Total Urban Rural Population Population Population Area 1960- 1970- 1960- 1970- 1960- 1970- 1970 1975 1970 1975 1970 1975 World Total 1.9 1.9 3.0 3.0 1.4 1.3 More developed regions 1.0 0.9 2.1 2.0 -0 6 -0.9 Less developed regions 2.3 2.4 4.1 4.2 1.8 1.7 Europe 0.8 0.6 1.6 1.4 -0.6 -0.8 USSR 1.3 1.0 2.7 2.3 —0.4 -0.9 Northern America 1.3 0.9 1.9 1.5 -0.4 —1.0 Oceania 2.1 2.0 2.7 2.4 1.0 1.1 South Asia 2.5 2.6 4.1 4.3 2.1 2.2 East Asia 1.6 1.6 3.3 4.0 1.2 0.7 Africa 2.6 2.7 4.8 4.9 2.1 2.0 Latin America 2.7 2.7 4.3 3.9 1.3 1.1 Source: United Nations Population Study No. 56, p. 34. estimates for the period from 1970 to 1975 demonstrate a decided change, inasmuch as urban growth in Latin America appears to be slowing. While Africa continues to lead and, in fact, has shown an increase in the rate of urbanization, Latin America has been replaced by East and South Asia, where the population of the rural sector is much larger. The future for these developing regions may be one of phenomenal urban growth, unparalleled in modern history. However, this rapid growth has not occurred equally for all urban areas in developing countries. The primate cities; e.g., the cities of over one million inhabitants, have been growing at an accelerated rate (Table 3). Table 3. Number and Population of Million-Cities, and Percentage of Total Population in Million-Cities, 1960 and 1975, in the World and Major Areas Number of Population of Percentage of . . . . . . Total Population Million- Million-Cities . . . Area Cities (Millions) in ¥l¥ll°n- Cities 1960 1975 1960 1975 1960 1975 World Total 109 191 272 516 9.1 12.8 More developed regions 64 90 173 251 17.7 21.9 Less developed regions 45 101 99 265 4.9 Europe 31 37 73 93 17.3 19.3 USSR 5 12 13 25 6.1 9.7 Northern' America 18 30 52 80 26.2 32.9 Oceania 2 2 4 6 24.7 26.9 South Asia 16 34 32 88 3.7 6.8 East Asia 23 45 60 131 7.7 12.9 Africa 3 10 6 22 2.4 5.5 Latin America 11 21 31 71 14.5 21.9 Source: U.N. Population Study No. 56, p. 36. During the period 1960 to 1975, the percentage of Latin America's population which lived in these metropolises in- creased from 14.5 percent to 21.9 percent of the total re— gional population. While the primate cities appear to be the focus of the urbanization process, the growth in urban population is due to several causes. High rates of natural increase can cause some areas to achieve urban classification, based on a minimum total population, between the taking of two cen- suses. Also, high rates of in—migration may cause a tre- mendous increase in a smaller city's population between census counts. Furthermore, the actual population growth of a city, due to natural increase and migration, may re- sult in the expansion of the physical boundaries of the city with the addition of the residents of the annexed areas to the urban population. As might be expected, there is substantial variation in the levels and rates of urbanization of the countries which make up a region. Within Latin America, the popula- tion characteristics of the twenty-six nations illustrate a complete demographic variety, from countries in the first stages of the "demographic transition" to countries which appear to have completed this demographic cycle (Table 4.). This "demographic transition" model, commonly used to illus— trate a country's population growth, describes the move from a balance of high birth and death rates to one of low birth and death rates. Table 4. Latin America: Demographic Indicators, 1960-1975 . Urban Population Population Growth as Those of Total (Annual Average Po ulation Population Rate) (Pegcenta e) Country 1972 g (millions) 1960- 1970-1975 1970 1975 1970 (projected) (projected) Argentina 23.9 1.4 1.3 77.4 79.9 Bahamas 0.2 4.4 ... 51.9 53.5 Barbados 0.2 0.3 0.5 43.5 45.3 Bolivia 5.2 2.4 2.5 34.6 37.2 Brazil 98.9 2.9 2.9 55.0 59.4 Chile 10.0 2.4 1.8 76.8 80.0 Colombia 22.5 3.3 3.2 57.1 61.6 Costa Rica 1.8 3.3 2.8 36.3 37.8 Cuba 8.8 2.0 2.1 58.9 61.2 Dominican Republic 4.3 3.2 3.3 39.7 43.9 Ecuador 6.5 3.4 3.3 38.7 41.7 El Salvador 3.8 3.4 3.2 38.7 40.1 Grenada 0.1 1.9 ... .... .... Guatemala 5.4 2.9 3.0 33.5 34.8 Guyana 0.8 2.8 2.2 31.7 33.5 Haiti 5.1 2.4 2.5 19.1 21.2 Honduras 2.7 3.1 3.5 26.8 29.2 Jamaica 1.9 1.5 1.5 37/0- 40.9 Mexico 52.9 3.3 3.3 59.3 63.1 'Nicaragua 2.0 3.0 3.3 45.2 48.1 Panama 1.5 3.0 2.8 48.1 51.4 Paraguay 2.6 2.5 3.2 36.8 38.3 Peru 14.5 2.9 3.0 53.8 57.1 Trinidad and Tobago 1.0 1.3 1.1 24.1 25.1 Uruguay 3.0 2.2 1.2 79.9 82.6 Venezuela 11.0 3.3 3.0 78.8 82.6 Source: United Nations, 1974 Report on the World Social Situation, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, p. 36. The Colonial History and Urban Growth of Latin America When the Spanish arrived in the New World, they encountered four major advanced Indian civilizations. In the central highlands of Mexico were the Aztecs, while the Mayan civilization were found in the Guatemalan highlands and the Yucatan Peninsula. The Incan society was discov- ered by the Spanish, isolated in the high Andes of Peru and Bolivia. The Chibchas, of somewhat lesser significance, were located in the highlands of the Eastern Cordillera of Colombia. These Indian civilizations developed in the highland basins to escape the tropical diseases endemic to the low- lands. In the mountains they found rich mineral resources, including malleable precious metals and brilliant jewels from which they fashioned various artifacts, including adornments, tools and symbols of their religious beliefs. The highland basins provided ample land for agriculture and the Indians prospered with the development of their indigenous agricultural technology. The Spanish arrived in small exploring parties to claim all the lands which they had "acquired" as the domin- ion of the Spanish Crown under the provisions of the Treaty of Tordesillas, signed with Portugal in 1494. To Indian tribes that accepted colonial domination, they offered trinkets, Christianity, and the protection of the Spanish Crown. For those opposed to their rule, they countered with their advanced military strength. 10 In the aftermath of the wars fought to achieve Spanish colonial domination, the conquerors superimposed a colonial urban hierarchy and transportation network over the existing Indian structures. James notes that the dis- tribution of the Indians was the most important single factor which determined the centers of the Spanish con- quest (1969, p. 16). Within the empire, colonial cities developed with specific functions. Some were administra- tive centers, like Mexico City, Lima, Guatemala City, Quito, and Bogota. Others were important transshipment centers, such as the ports of Cartagena, San Juan, Santo Domingo, and Acapulco; and trading centers such as Porto Bello (Panama) and Guadalajara (Mexico). Webb cites four aspects of the colonial period which lend support to the development of primate cities in Latin America (1972, p. 26). Colonial rule was highly central- ized under the "audencia," a ruling body which combined the functions of the executive, legislative and judicial branches, all in one office. The pervasive nature of this governing form has tended to discourage the de-centraliza- tion of national governments and might be viewed as the precedent for the establishment of dictatorships in place of more democratic and de-centralized forms of government. The Spanish also instituted a rigid class system to main- tain their hold over the native subjects. To this day, the impact of this strict class structure has brought re- sistance in modern Latin society towards upward social ll mobility. Additionally, the colonial rulers were able to cap- italize on the control and influence which the Catholic Church exerted over the Indians. Some observers of Latin society theorize that this strong religious faith in an institution which advocated obedience and respect for civil authorities, served to dampen any feelings of revolt among the Indians. Finally, the Spanish cononial mercantilist economic system, based on the colonial power's monopolistic control of all human and natural resources, fostered the contemporary imbalance of trade which plagues many present Latin American nations. The early practice of developing only those resources which were of value for export has caused the neglect of the local economy and the dependence on imported finished products, further jeopordizing their trade balance. Background Historyyof the Study Area The colonial history of Nicaragua is full of intra- regional conflict. From 1519 to 1523, Gil Gonzalez de Avila led expeditions from Panama through Nicaragua, trav- elling as far north as the Gulf of Fonseca. Upon his re— turn, Pedrarias, the governor of Panama, sent Francisco Hernandez de Cordoba and Hernando de Soto to establish permanent settlements in Nicaragua. In 1524, this party founded the city of Granada along the shores of Lake Nic— aragua.1 Cordoba's men pressed northwestward and, in 1527 1Squier places the founding of Granada in 1522, rather than 1524. 12 established the city of Leon along the shores of Lake Managua.2 Until the time of independence, the country was ad- ministered by the captain-generalcy office in Guatemala City. On September 15, 1821, the five Central American colonial states declared their independence from Spain. This action had two significant effects upon the political climate of the region. Existing local rivalries within each state were inflammed, while the governors of the five states sought to maintain autonomous local rule in place of some form of regional government. However, the five states, namely, Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, Nicar- agua, and Costa Rica, agreed to form a federal union of Central American states, known as the "United Provinces of Central America," with a constitition modeled after that of the United States of America. When representatives of the five states gathered in Guatemala City to declare their independence, they also debated the preferred form of government in a body called the National Constituent Assembly. Within the Assembly there were two major political factions, the "Liberales" and the "Conservadores." The Liberals favored broad polit- ical reforms modeled after the philosophies of liberty and equality which inspired the French and North American revo- lutions. Within Nicaragua, the residents of Leon backed 2Leon was re-located to its present site in 1610. 13 the Liberal movement, while the Conservatives, represent- ing the interests of the clergy and landowners, found strong support among the residents of Granada. The irrecon- cilable differences between these groups ultimately led to a civil war within the "United Provinces." Indicative of the early prominence of the Liberal party within the Union, Leon was selected as the first national capital of Nicaragua. With the resurgence of the Conservatives, however, the capital was taken out of Leon after the Conservative army ransacked the Liberal capital in 1845. Fearing possible reprisals, the Conservatives began to centralize the governmental functions in Managua and in 1855, Managua was recognized as the official capital of Nicaragua. Besides Leon, Granada, and Managua, several other cities had developed by the mid-nineteenth century (Squier, 1858, p. 373). For example, Masaya, the second largest city in the country, with a population in 1854 of 16,000 inhabitants, developed as an important Indian handicraft and trade center. Further south, the small city of Rivas, its early growth hampered by the scourges of the civil war and several earthquake disasters, was another important trading center. Established after the founding of Granada and Leon, Rivas provided an important link in the overland trade route that extended southward to Panama. Also, Rivas was centrally-located to an area densely-settled by Indians and served as their marketing and trading center. 14 Furthermore, it was conveniently located near the narrowest part of the isthmus between Lake Nicaragua and the Pacific Ocean. It was here that the United States and the European countries had envisioned the construction of the first inter-oceanic canal to connect the Gulf of Mexico and the Pacific Ocean (Squier, 1860, p. 657-691). The city of Chinandega, with a mid-eighteenth century population of 15,000, and its neighboring port city, Real- ejo, grew rapidly during the years of the civil war when Leon residents fled their homes. Chinandega continued to grow as agricultural interests expanded along the western coastal plain and cotton and sugar cane plantations sprang up everywhere. By 1850 most of the other cities of any size or im- portance were located in the mountainous North Central re- gion of the country. These cities included the provincial capitals of Segovia and Matagalpa, and the mining "boom towns" of Ocotal, Jalapa, Acoyapa, and Depilto (Figure l). The Growth of Managua: The Evolution of a Primate City Managua did not undergo any significant growth until the late 1920's when the population regained its pre- Columbian size of approximately 40,000 inhabitants (Kates, 1973, p. 8). The city was struck by a devastating earth- quake in 1931 which, like the one which hit the capital in 1898, virtually destroyed it. Despite these setbacks, the city continued to grow, and by 1940, it had a population of r) 3:353 35:02 3:09.39 2.06.3000 ..otoou .coE..oooo \ 2.99.3.2 . . ’99....5 . f 1 sum. 2 66.3339 .H musmfim A m u on. ‘ .8 o .\(I/ 03¢ 0:30 E. 00. r / 0:1 .‘. /.\l I \.\ I I /./.\. 8:8 to». z I; :03... , 33¢ (III can . I om“ '2‘- / J 00 I \ o .. ,. -... , o v “a“ o . 0 .. .. :3 on. .35.. 328. _. ., . .820... N , V! o \ . . 1w .. . / . \IIII ooocxuomxoaoz. \ , .~ .. ...\ 3.2.35 06.8» X... 3005:... 0\ .../I 839...... J: . , .. ....\\ I _ \ . . ... . \JIOII \ It \\'.I IIIIU . \\ rIII .. cocoa ... 88m \_ Hr '\\'l\\ X “I (I! \l l.\\ e ‘ t t . \ I 1-1L.-. 023202 ._ .\ oooucoczo I . . o x o _ 0 ~ ._ 2.822... ., \\ \ \\ I xx 090.93. \l‘\ \I . \ . I II I in §\"\“Iu ' \ , 322.... x 2398 9.2.2 . I-“ T x e r/ 1.1 16 over 50,000 residents. The rapid growth of the capital since that time is evidenced by the 1950 and 1963 national censuses, which show that the Department of Managua exper- ienced a population increase of 97.4 percent. This period may be described as the "take-off" stage in terms of Mana- qua's primacy status. It was during this time that Nicar- agua attracted the attention of many foreign investors, and the main focus of this attention was the capital city. During the next intercensal period, 1963 to 1971, this accelerated growth continued. The national census of 1971 recorded a population of 504,126 in the department of Managua, again most of this growth occurring in the capital (Table 5). On the eve of theIdisastrous earth— quake which struck the city on December 23, 1972; Managua had an estimated 409,196 inhabitants or 20.5 percent of the national population. By 1972, the capital city had assumed many of the characteristics of a Latin American primate city. In the area of health service and facilities, Managua accounted for 43 percent of all the hospital beds in the nation. With respect to public utilities, transportation and com- munications, Managua provided 51 percent of the potable water service, consumed 92 percent of all electrical power, and accounted for 20 percent of all paved roads, as well as 76 percent of all telephone calls (Censo Estadistico, 1972). Furthermore, Managua produced an estimated 63 per— cent of all nationally—manufactured goods (Ryan, 1970, p. 244). l7 LT « . . _ _ mm.» s.k mom.mva av.~ m.m mom.mm _ m.o _ ANA.AG M msmama HH.4 H.H ~mm.o~ mm.m o.a www.ma m.o W mmo.a L case :mm oflm I. i sm.e m.m ovm.mwa OH.H m.m mmo.eoa 4.5 m mflm.mk w mcoN uflucmHua was A i av.m m.m was.mm mm.m o.m oom.mv m.~ “ mmm.mm _ mflposmm o>msz om. m.~ m~4.mm mm.m m.m mm~.om ~.m _ mna.mm _ Nahum: mk.a ~.4 vmfl.mn mv.v m.v sm~.mm ~.4 men.mv i Aamumm -.~ m.¢ ovm.om mm.q o.m mmm.os G.v mmm.m¢ mmmuocfln ma.I m.m mma.mGH so.~ N.HH mov.HsH m.~a Hos.mma M maHmmmumz MH.I n.m Ama.mm Hm.m n.s mam..~ m.v mmo.om H oomom ~H.I G.m Nom.mm Hm.m m.v ms¢.ms m.s mmm.om mmamucono on. A.Hm mma.mmm mq.m G.Gm Gem.omm 0.5m mom.emm mcoN Hmuucmo 6cm zuuoz one om.H m.m mNH.vk m~.m ~.v Hom.vo m.s «Hm.mv mm>flm oo.H m.m vma.ak mo.~ m.v www.mm o.m wma.~m cwmumo vo.H m.m Noa.Hk om.~ m.e mvm.mm v.4 i ~m».m¢ mnmcmuu mm.~ m.q ~ma.~a «v. o.m omm.mk m.m mvv.~k msmmmz mm.w m.mm omm.mmv aw. m.o~ www.mam «.ma mam.HGH museums ov.H m.m omm.ooH SG.H m.m Hmo.oma m..a «Ho.mma some mm.~ m.m www.mma ov.v 4.m vmm.m~a m.k Gmm.Hm mommocmcflao mm.m «.mm mkv.GHH.H ms.m m.mm mnm.mom m.mm mmm.mmm muoN oeuflomm was mn.~ o.QOH Nmm.ssm.a mm.m o.ooa mmm.mmm.. o.ooa Ham.m¢o.fl oflansmmm was nusouo gu3ouo Hmscc< Hmuoa coflumasmom HMDCC¢ Hmuoa coflumaomom Hmuoa coflumHsmom mmmum>4 Go a Hhma mmmum>¢ Go A mesa no A ommfl Humaumwma momHIommH HumHIommH .mucmfiunmmoo we mcofiuowum> HmmcmoumucH 0cm mamuoa cowumasmom :msmmumowz .m manna 18 The Impact of the 1972 Earthquake At 12:29 a.m. on December 23, 1972, Managua was rocked by a violent earthquake. The foreshocks which be- gan about 10:00 p.m. that night, caused some people to evacuate their homes and sleep outdoors. The major shock which occurred at 12:29 a.m. measured 6.25 on the Richter seismic scale and was followed, at 1:17 and 1:19 that same morning, by two less severe shocks. Aftershocks continued for several weeks. The extensive damage of the earthquakes, despite their relative low intensity, has been attributed to their shallow focus (Kates, 1973, p. 16). Research conducted in a small barrio (neighborhood) of the capital, after the 1968 Managuan earthquake, indicated that conditions were optimum for further seismic activity such as the earthquake which followed in 1972. The shallow focus of the shock suggests to seismologists that the earthquake was probably produced by volcanic rather than fault motion. The initial damage reports were confusing and con- tradictory, and final government estimates of the damage can be described in terms of the physical and demographic effects. Thirteen square kilometers of the downtown area were completely destroyed, while an additional fourteen square kilometers of the city suffered extensive damage to permanent structures and the interruption of water and electrical service. Without water, the city was helpless to combat the widespread fires which broke out. Four 19 hospitals, providing 1650 beds, were lost or severely damaged. 740 classrooms were destroyed and the total financial loss from the disaster approached $850,000,000 (U.S.). The demographic and social impacts of the earthquake are far more difficult to measure. While initial estimates of the death toll ranged from 3,000 to 10,000 fatalities, final estimates claim the loss of 6,000 to 8,000 persons. The estimates of the displacements which occurred as a re- sult of the earthquake are even more varied. One report cites the loss of 100,000 refugees who fled the city within the first eighteen hours after the disaster, while other estimates indicate that between 220,000 and 250,000 persons fled the city (Kates, 1973, p. 21). As the city began to re-build in the aftermath of one of the worst disasters to strike urban Latin America in recent years, politicians, geophysicists, architects, and social planners debated alternative urban re-develop- ment plans. Almost everyone agreed that some change in the urban land use pattern was desireable, but no agree- ment had been reached regarding the nature, extent, or rate of this redevelopment. Within a few months following the earthquake, urban planners in Managua, who had hoped that the threat of a recurrence of the disaster might discourage in-migration until the rubble had been cleared away and plans finalized and implemented for the re-construction of the city, noticed that squatter settlements were springing 20 up and existing housing areas for the disaster refugees around the outskirts of the city were filling. Managua, like the phoenix rising from the ashes, was restoring it- self. Within a year-and-a-half, the urban population grew to 500,000, surpassing the pre-earthquake population. The important contribution of migration in the re— growth of Managua cannot be denied. Government officials grew concerned as to whether migration would continue as a primary contributing factor in the future development of the city. This study is an attempt to answer some of their questions. CHAPTER II REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE Migration research is an important step in under- standing the causes and effects of social and economic change (Shaw, 1975, p. 1). However, the complex nature of the topic is evidenced by the variety of social science disciplines which address the problem, each developing their own paradigms. The net effect of this proliferation and diversification of research activity has been the accum- ulation of knowledge in the absence of a general formulation of theory and models upon which to develop our understanding of the migration process (Jackson, 1969, p. 6). Shaw identifies six lines of inquiry in the area of migration research: migration selectivity and differen- tials, economic aspects of migration, spatial aspects of migration, behavioral aspects of the decision to migrate, migration probabilities and the mover—stayer continuum, and the stochastic modeling of the migration process (1975, p. 12). While Shaw's review of migration research includes studies conducted in Latin America, his typology of research efforts overlooks the variety of factors associated with the spatial aspects of the migration process. In addition to those research foci enumerated by Shaw, Thomas cites the 21 22 efforts to study the characteristics of the origin and destination areas in the migration system, as well as des- criptive accounts of the migration process in the Latin American context (1971, p. 104—110). Due to the diversity which exists in the field of migration research, this lit- erature review takes narrow focus on the spatial aspects of the migration process and some of the work done on the impact of natural disasters on the human environment, with special attention to the human migratory response. General Migration Theory Perhaps the most universal finding in migration re- search is that the incidence of migration between two areas is inversely-related to the distance between them. However, the cause of this phenomenon has been explained in terms of three models: the basic gravity model, the intervening opportunities model, and the information dif- fusion model. Migration was first studied by physical scientists in the context of molecular structure and interaction. Physicists observed that the two bodies exerted an attractive force upon one another where the force was a function of the product of their masses and inversely-proportional to the distance between them. Astronomists later found this rela- tionship in the study of the interactsion of heavenly bodies. Around 1850, H.C. Carey noted that physical and social phenomena must be related to a basic set of 23 universally-fundamental laws. He reasoned that if man's body functions in accordance with certain inviolable natur- al laws, then man must behave in accord with similar laws governing their interactions; e.g., that must be governed by gravitational forces (1956, p. 94). In 1898, Ravenstein released the results of his fam- ous English migration study. He found that migration move- ments tended toward large population centers and that the volume of the migrant stream decreased as the distance be- tween the "areas of dispersion" (out-migration areas) and the "areas of absorption" (in-migration areas) increased. In a similar effort, Young hypothesized that the relative volume of migration to a given destination from each of several source areas varies directly with the destination's force of attraction and inversely with the square of the distance between the source and the destination (Carrothers, 1956, p. 95). The gravity model was formalized, however, by the work of Zipf and Stewart. Both returned to the physical Law of Gravitation to describe the force of interaction between two bodies or, in this case, population centers. Zipf's model considers the force of attraction to be the product of the population of the two areas and the high- way mileage between them (Karp and Kelley, 1971, pp. 7-8). Zipf measured the deterministic value of this expression by comparing the predicted "energy of interaction" between two cities with such interactive means as telephone calls, 24 passenger bus traffic, and newspaper circulation. As researchers found the basic gravity model to be inconsistent anui inaccurate, they attempted to modify it by altering the distance exponent to reflect increased "friction of distance" along certain routes (Carrothers, 1956, p. 97). Others suggested that the friction of dis- tance exponent itself is an inverse fuction of either the population component (Anderson, 1955) or the distance com- ponent (Carrothers, 1956). Following the earlier work with the gravity model, another interpretation of the role of distance in the de— termination of migration flows is provided by Stouffer. He proposes that the number of persons going a given dis- tance is directly proportional to the number of opportun- ities at that destination and inversely-proportional to the number of intervening opportunities (1940, p. 846). In a later modification of his theory, Stouffer added the fac- tor of competing migrants. The number of competing mi- grants and intervening opportunities, he said, was an inverse function of the number of migrants travelling be- tween two points (1960, p. 9). Much of Stouffer's work has been replicated in other parts of the United States with similar results in each case. However, Stouffer's operational definition of inter- vening opportunities has been attacked. Some view Stouf- fer's methodology as an exercise in circular logic, in that his variables are inter-related, yielding an artificially 25 high correlation between the predicted number of migrants and the absolute migration flow calculated by his model (Karp and Kelley, 1971, p. 9). Furthermore, his model tends to view all opportunities as economic or employment related, which is a fallacious argument inasmuch as mi- grants respond to a variety of motivations and opportun- ities, in addition to purely economic factors. The information diffusion model is more complex be- cause it is more descriptive than deterministic. In the context of this model, the role of distance impedes the diffusion of information about the benefits of city life. (See Morrill and Pitts, 1967). The Operational factor in this model is the sphere of influence or the "mean infor- mation field" of each urban area. The broader the range of influence of a city, the more likely that information about it will be shared by others in that area. The spa— tial extent of this sphere is a function of the degree to which the transportation and communication networks are developed to carry information and the receptivity of the rural inhabitant to accept that information. Frequently, diffusion theory discusses only the pro— cess of technological diffusion; i.e., the spread of adop- tive behavior through a social system of some technological innovation. However, one can conceive of this model as a useful explanation for the increasing attractiveness of a primate city or other receiving center as more rural res- idents become dissatisfied with their local environment 26 and move to the city. Wolpert provides a useful conceptual framework for understanding migration as a behavioral process. He views it as a form of individual or group adaptation to perceived changes in one's environment, a recognition of marginality with respect to a stationary position, and a flow reflect- ing an appraisal by a potential migrant of his present site and situation as opposed to other potential locations (1965, p. 161). Moreover, Brown and Moore suggest that migration is an adjustment process whereby one residential location is substituted for another in order to better satisfy the needs and desires of each intended migrant 1970, p. 1). The Decision-to-Migrate as a Behavioral Process The first step of the migration process is the de- cision to seek a new residence, and is based on a poten- tial migrant's evaluation of the local environment in terms of its ability to satisfy their needs and minimize the feel- ings of stress imposed by a hostile or unsatisfying envir- onment. When the individual perceives this problem, they may decide either to restructure their environment or to move. If moving appears to be the preferred solution, the intended migrant establishes a set of criteria upon which to evaluate the alternative destinations. Among the gen- eral factors which may be weighed in the consideration are: accessability, physical or environmental characteristics, 27 quality of services and facilities in the area, the nature of the social environment, and the individual site and dwelling characteristics (Brown and Moore, 1970, p. 5). In addition to the site characteristics which determine the relative "place utility" of the location, migrants must evaluate the situational aspects which affect their life in the new location, e.g., occupation and social con- tacts. After evaluating the criteria for selecting a new residence, an intended migrant engages in information- gathering activity about alternative locations and begins to assess each in terms of the place utility which it of- fers. Information sources may be quite varied, and include personal experience, commercial and governmental sources (real estate agencies or government re-location and hous- ing programs) and the mass media (Rodgers, 1972, p. 354). Based on the relative credability ascribed to each source, the decision-maker evaluates each piece of information ac- cording to the location's ability to serve his needs. Numerous research efforts have identified many of the neg- ative factors associated with the migrant's origin (see Flinn, 1970 and McDonald, 1968). The importance of dis- tance asia limiting factor in the search behavior activity is easily understood. Within a constricted "action space," the potential migrant must make the decision to re-locate with less than complete information regarding the variety and location of sites which will satisfy the selection 28 criteria. Another aspect of the migration process is the in- formational link between a successful migrant and those members of the family and friends who are contemplating a similar move. Previous urban migrants are common sources of information for those contemplating a move to the city. These migrants frequently encourage additional migration to the urban areas since they convey a positive impression of urban life. Conversely, new in-migrants may reinforce these positive impressions of the city by referring to the rural area of origin as backward and unsatisfactory in com- parison, thus discouraging any return migration to the rur— al source area by those older migrants who may have con- sidered retiring to their place of origin or those that wish to retire from urban life. The incidence of return migration is often influenced by the stigma of personal failure attached to those wishing to return to their home. Return visits commonly become an opportunity for the mi- grant to show-off one's success to family and peers, re- inforcing the attractiveness of the city. The operation of a behavioral process as complex as migration, evidences itself in three frequently-cited patterns: namely, direct rural-urban migration, stage migration and step-wise migration. Rural to urban migra— tion refers to a move, by direct or indirect means, from a rural place of origin to an urban place of destination. Stage migration refers to the process whereby migrant 29 families move up the urban hierarchy over the course of one or more generations. Ravenstein emphasizes that stage migration refers to the process whereby a migrant's place in the population of a secondary urban center is replaced by a migrant from a smaller and more rural origin when that migrant moves up the hierarchy (1895, p. 198). Step-wise migration refers to a series of progressively-urban moves by the same group or individual, usually culminating in the migrant's arrival in the capital or the primate city. Cross-Cultural Comparisons of the Migration Process One may assume that migration patterns vary from one region of the world to another as do many cultural traits. Byerlee summarizes the migration research in Africa, con- cluding that the African case provides two departures from accepted migration theory (1974, p. 9). In many African countries, the land tenure system encourages rural to urban migration and helps to maintain the close links between the migrant and the community of origin. Return migra- tion is a common occurrence in many African nations due to the strong religious ties between an individual and his "native" land. Also, the out-migration from rural areas of educated rural youth is quite common and acts as a "brain drain," tapping the rural community of potential manpower and skills that could affect positive change. Harvey and Riddell offer one of the few African migra- tion studies which fOcuses on the step-wise pattern of 30 the migration process. They find that the urban migration flow has evolved as a positive feedback mechanism, in which the town has become a major focus of population movement, while at the same time inducing further movement (1972, p. 271). Their analysis of migration flows is based on two factors: the distance between the origin and the des- tination,anuithe level of urbanization in each area. They identify four factors which strongly influence the inci- dence of step-wise migration: 1) the existence of a strong local urban focus, 2) the relative isolation of the origin from a large urban center, 3) the proximity of the origin to an intermediate urban center, and 4) the predominance of urban attractive forces on the migration system. On the other hand, the prevalence of step-wise migra— tion in Asian countries is uncertain. Migration flows in Taiwan focus on the capital, Taipei, and originate in the rural areas (Gallin, 1975). This may be due, in part, to the general accessability of most areas. However, in a study of internal migration throughout the island, Speare notes that major net flows were from urban or rural town- ships to the cities. In addition, he states that there was a smaller net flow from rural townships to urban town- ships, compensating in part for the net flow from urban townships to the cities. This process appears similar to the step-wise migration patterns observed by Ravenstein (1974, p. 309). In a macro-analysis of urbanization in South—East 31 Asia, Jackson attributes most urban growth to direct rural to urban migration and cites little evidence of signifi— cant step-wise migration (1974, p. 26). But his general- izations lack the concurrence of many researchers. For example, Sternstein provides a different view with his study of migration streams to and from Bangkok, Thailand. He found that over half of the migrants had experienced urban living prior to their move to the Thai capital, and that only one-sixth of the migrants came from remote villages (1974, p. 141). Moreover, Elahi suggests that step-wise migration is a common occurrence in Bangladesh, although he notes that this is a difficult phenomena to measure in a country where migrants literally "float" from location to location during the rainy season, with no apparent intention of establishing permanent residency (1972, p. 5). Thomas and others provide several studies of migra- tion patterns in the Latin American context. With Catau, Thomas finds that the physical distance between the origin and the destination has a pronounced influence on the in- cidenceIofstep-wisenugration. As the origin of the mi— 'grant becomes more remote, the probability increases that the first move will be to a nearby secondary city (1974, p. 116). However, a close reading of this work, much like that of Harvey and Riddell, suggests that the authors' work more closely describes the stage migration process than the step-wise migration pattern. Curiously, these 32 authors fail to consider the question of social distance in their Guatemalan study. Earlier we noted that migration rates in less— developed countries are affected positively by improve- ments in transportation and communication facilities and the broader diffusion of information about the urban en— vironment. Thomas and Mulvihill demonstrate the impact of this temporal factor on the stage migration process (1974, p. 6). They find that the percentage of migrants originating in rural areas increases over time as trans- portation networks extend from the primate city to provide better access to the urban environment (1974, p. 9). Both of these works by Thomas draw upon field work data collected in Guatemala City, Guatemala. However, Guatemala may be somewhat unique in Central America in that the national population is fairly well-distributed throughout the highlands and along the southwest coast, even though the capital contains roughly one million in- habitants or approximately 20 percent of the national population. Furthermore, the Guatemalan people still reflect the strong cultural heritage of the Mayan Indian civilization, as nearly 50 percent of the population is considered full-blooded Indian. In view of the large proportion of the population which is Indian, one may question the applicability of these findings to countries with a culturally more homogen- eous population. In order to assimilate into the urban 33 society, the Guatemalan Indian must adopt western dress, learn to speak Spanish and adjust to an urban life-style. An individual who can make this cultural transition is identified as a "ladino." However, this identity implies that a social class distinction exists which differentiates the Indian from other elements of Guatemalan society. Nevertheless, while these Guatemalan studies may not provide a complete explanation, they do illustrate how the population of Latin American secondary cities is maintained by the replacement from rural areas of the population lost to larger urban centers. In a Colombian study, Thomas and Byrnes focus on the migration field of the often-ignored secondary city, demon- strating that the migration field of a larger urban center or primate city can have a determinable effect on the shape and extent of the migration field of a secondary urban center (1975, p. 8). Migration and Natural Disasters As Shaw notes, much research has been done on the characteristics of the rural origin and urban destination in a migration system. Generally, the origin is associa- ted with a variety of socio-economic attributes which tend to force or push people off the land. These pressures in- clude the lack of adequate education, the monopolization of the best agricultural land by a few owners with the de- clining productivity of marginal land, primitive cultivation 34 techniques and the threat of rural violence. On the other hand, the urban areas attract rural migrants with the lure of employment opportunities, educational and health facil- ities, entertainment and the opportunity for crime (Thomas, 1970, p. 105). However, in a broader, more theoretical work, Wolpert suggests that migrationijsa behavioral response to the per- ception of environmental stress (1966, p. 92), defined as any influence that arises from the internal environment or the external environment which interferes with the sat— isfaction of basic needs or which disturbs or threatens to disturb the stable equilibrium (1966, p. 93). Most of these perceived push and pull forces can be seen as nega- tive and positive social stresses which are internal to the- potential migrant's environment. On the other hand, nat- ural hazards represent an external force which disrupts the existing social order, causing stress on the social system. In this sense, the study of the impact of natural hazards is relevant to our understanding of the broad eco-system within which man functions (Burton, 1971, p. 11). Natural disasters result from the occurrence of natural processes at excessive magnitudes for the response capacity of the environment. Floods result from excessive rainfall and rapid run-off, drought conditions develop in response to extended dry spells, and serious earthquakes represent seismic shocks of stronger intensity than those of lesser degree which occur daily throughout the world. 35 Natural disasters are, therefore, defined in terms of the environment's limits of tolerance (Burton, 1971, p. 12). The extent to which the occurrence of disasters may be damaging becomes a function of the sociological and technological flexability of an individual to withstand the strain of that event. The measure of a community or an organism's strength, is the ability of its weakest ele— ment, either social or phycical, to withstand the strain of external forces; i.e., an ecological parody of the ex- pression that "a chain is as strong as its weakest link." To identify a place as more hazardous than another, for whatever reason, is to identify that place as the weakest link among the totality of places. If man can-identify the disastrous weak link successfully, planning may en- able society to avoid the risk or minimize the losses which may result from the occurrence of that hazardous event. The study of human perception and avoidance of natu- al hazards is important to both academician and policy- maker. The study of hazard perception is important in order to understand the broader information-gathering and decision-making processes which lead to a change of resi— dence. Moreover, the definition of the existing decision— making environment is important in assessing the effects of future disasters. To the policy maker, the value of hazard research is more practical, understanding the im- pacts of disasters provides a basis for planning efforts to circumvent or ameliorate the harmful effects of a 36 disaster. While scientists have studied the effects of indi- vidual disasters for many years, only more recently have they taken a broader view of the possible impacts, both physical and social, of natural disasters upon the eco- system. Burton suggests that the realization of the "spaceship earth" concept, as well as growing public awareness of the increasing complexity of technological developments, have created the mental set necessary to promote the closer study of the complex interrelation- ships between an individual and the environment (1971, p. 3). Hewitt provides one of the more comprehensive re- views of the impact of various natural disasters on the human environment, specifically in the context of a more developed country. The authors believe that researchers need to adopt a broader, more ecological orientation in order to develop a better understanding of man-environ- ment interactions in response to the gamut of environmen- tal stresses. In his concluding remarks, he notes that the impact of environmental hazards upon the way one perceives the environment is a topic worthy of closer investigation by researchers (1971, p. 147). For developing countries, however, there is no com— prehensive study of the impact of natural hazards on the human environment. Many developing countries lack suffic- ient and/or recent demographic data which are used to 37 assess the impact of a natural disaster. Also, these countries may lack the local research capabilities to carry out this research. Moreover,geographic location has a certain limiting effect upon the variety of disas— ters which may occur; i.e., tropical countries are more limited in the climatic variation which may cause a ca- tastrophe than are countries in a temperate climate. Sheehan and Hewitt find that countries with lower per capita incomes suffer higher mortality rates due to natural disasters than do more developed countries, while the latter tend to experience higher property loss and fewer deaths (1969, p. 17). Fertility research in devel- oping countries has suggested that these areas evidence higher fertility rates to counterbalance the effects of high infant mortality and shorter life expectancies. If countries tend to anticipate high death rates as a result of natural disasters, and they know that their birth rates will soon replace those lost in a disaster; they may feel less compulsion to study the impact of disasters which seem to serve as a natural check on their population growth. In Latin America, only a limited amount of work has been done to evaluate the impact of natural disasters, and generally these works tend to measure the immediate phys- ical effects. A few, however, have examined the impacts on the human environment. Brooks analyses the human re- sponse to drought in northeastern Brazil and finds that 38 wide-scale out-migration from the affected areas to be an immediate response (1971, p. 44). Kates' attempt to evaluate the impact of the 1972 Managuan earthquake is based on information gathered in Managua shortly after the catastrophe. His report summar- izes the behavioral response in the post-disaster period and provides some initial official damage estimates. It does not, however, provide a perspective on the redistri- bution of the population or the impact of the earthquake on the attractiveness of the capital or any other city for future migrants. CHAPTER III THE RESEARCH PROBLEM This study attempts to answer two questions. Are the findings from the Guatemalan studies by Thomas and others applicable to other Central American countries; i.e., does distance affect the incidence of stage migra- tion and what role does time play, if any in the stage migration process evident in the Managuan migration field? Furthermore, how does the development of a primate city effect the migration field of other secondary cities in the same region? The Research Hypotheses The first set of hypotheses describes the relation— ship between distance and the incidence of stage migration. In order to allow comparability of results, this study will adopt the hypothesis offered by Thomas and Catau in their work on distance; namely, that the probability that "step- wise" migration will occur is a function of the distance of the origin from the primate city. Furthermore, the inci— dence of stage migration can be expected to decrease over time. Secondly, the attractiveness of the secondary cities 39 40 as receiving centers for the displaced refugees after the earthquake will be a function of three factors: the dis— tance from the disaster area, the position of the secondary city in the urban hierarchy of the country, and the preval- ence of existing or former family ties in the city of des- tination. The Data Set This study is based on data from a survey of family heads in Managua, Masaya, Granada, Jinotepe, and Tipitapa; taken in 1974. The survey was designed and administered by a research team composed of members of the faculty of the Universidad Centro-Americana, the O.A.S. Decentralization Program research team, and the staff of the Central Amer- ican Business Administration Institute (I.N.C.A.E.). Due to the extensive damage suffered by the middle-income housing areas in downtown Managua, one goal of the multi— faceted study was to measure the impact of the earthquake upon the demand for low-income housing and to inventory the quality of housing in Managua. Consequently, the Managua data reflects a heavy bias for the low end of the income scale. Similarly, the survey was intended to pro- vide some measure of the effects of the earthquake upon the labor market and to determine the extent to which the disaster had caused a change in the occupational struc- ture of the population and reflects a bias for unskilled labor demand. In the four other cities involved in the 41 study, the survey was designed to sample the total popu- lation in order to evaluate the impact of the earthquake on housing conditions among all socio-economic levels. The sampling design used in Managua was a stratified random sample weighted to reflect the relative size of each barrio (neighborhood). The city was divided into six sec- tors based on the type and location of a variety of low- income barrios. Each of these six zones was sub-divided into barrio units, producing 45 sampling areas, each of which then was given an identification number. A table of random numbers was used to select 13 barrios for the survey (one for the pre-test and twelve for the study, see Figure 2). After the area sampling process, which produced a broad sample of public and private housing areas, the twelve selected sampling areas were sub-divided into multiple- block sampling units which were delineated through the use of aerial photographs, maps, and field observation. The block groups were assigned an identification number and by a similar random-selection process as previously dee scribed, a target set of blocks within each barrio were identified. The number of block groups to be used in the survey was calculated on the basis of the estimated popu— lation size and spatial extent of the entire barrio. This weighting of larger barrios in the sample, however, may have introduced some bias for those characteristics of the larger neighborhoods. Nevertheless, within each selected 42 .N musmflm o... .8... to NE: 8.59 8.3.2.. 8 8....5 .9 n .oz 5.5 ..__ .5 85.0.... 8.3» m 0. 520m 2... 3. .m 80.8.5 8.. 2026.... .0 023.2 2:28 N 2.33.. 38805. .w Sm 9.39m. 2:3 .0 SE n. .... :88? or... .m 96.0 2.6 .N 35.02.86. 2:3 .. 3% L). _. -... . m . _ . . . . J ...m _ _ mIi. N .< '33 f" .. .n. 2.89 .352: cootoE< Icon. “.III I . c .8 .83.. ‘i 9.... .... 6.2.9.3. 8882 ocaooq cacomF a. ‘ 252... cote .635 r11. 1... 2...on x0359... coo..mE<-con. ...“. 0:06:22 .. ...".......h.. \ . 3...“... .. 35.02.34 . I I I '.I .w ....-- A... . ...Ii 252... .. can .0 cu" I. f . ...-o3; Cu. I, v 0’ it o 00" . an. no If no. . I eat I I . I - cane-Hun. no I II nouonuhr CI".- - u on. OIQD\ 3523:. SE.» LEVI. 88 o m, 36.62 ocaooo V“ .NTQ 43 block group, interviewers attempted to reach 100 percent of the family heads (including a series of call-back vis- its). When a family head reported a family income above the national poverty level, the response was excluded from the sample with the assumption that the response was given to invalidate the results. This sampling procedure produced a response rate of 97.7 percent of the target sample population. Subsequent efforts to determine the size of the sample relative to the total population were unsuccessful. The survey questionnaire was pre-tested in the thirteenth barrio drawn from the sample universe and after reviewing the results, the principal investigators made minor modifications to the questionnaire to produce the final survey form (Appendix). The interviewing in the survey was done by a team of twelve college students from La Universidad Centro-Americana, who were given instruc- tion in survey and interviewing techniques. This group also performed the questionnaire pre-test and reviewed the results with the researchers to understand better the survey routine. The survey results had been collected, coded, and key— punched prior to this author's participation in the study. More careful consideration of the intent of the questions and the hypotheses to be tested would have been advisable Open-ended questions were used extensively in the survey and when the interviewer met with no response, the question 44 was by-passed for the next, seemingly in an attempt to complete the interview quickly. Also, superfically- adequate answers were accepted by the interviewer where more information was needed to fully answer the question. Due to these problems in interpreting the many blank re- sponses coded in the data, the author re—coded as many of the remaining original questionnaires as available to produce a new data set, composed of 525 heads of house- holds. To aid in the interpretation oftflmaoriginal ques- tionnaires, the author spent three days administering the original form among a variety of neighborhoods in Masaya. This exercise proved invalueable in providing insight to the structural problems of the questionnaire as well as experiencing the living conditions of the people in the secondary cities. This study examines two sides of the internal migra- tion question. Chapter IV discusses the role of several factors in determining the migration pattern of an evolv- ing primate city, Managua, prior to the disastrous earth- quake of 1972. Chapter V examines the impact of the earth- quake upon the attractiveness of several surrounding cities within the southwestern region of Nicaragua. CHAPTER IV THE ROLE OF THREE FACTORS IN THE STAGE MIGRATION PROCESS The migration field of a major city reflects the underlying processes which determine the volume, rate, direction, and composition of the migrant streams to that city. While some of these processes may be socio-economic or political in nature, more basic are such factors as time, space (or distance), and the urban hierarchy; all are important considerations in the analysis of migration pat- terns of Latin American primate cities. While many major cities of North America are grap— pling with the problems of population decline, Latin Amer- ican cities are faced with burgeoning populations that defy most planning efforts. A major part of this growth can be attributed to the influx of migrants from smaller cities and the rural countryside. Recent literature also describes this migration flow as one that occurs in stages or steps, as the migrant and his family ascend the urban hierarchy until they attain residency in the primate city. This chapter reviews some of the evidence of the Managuan migration experience to determine the role of three factors in the stage migration process. 45 46 Hypotheses Re-Stated This research is guided by earlier work done by geographers who have attempted to explain the relation- ship between time, distance, and urban hierarchical struc- ture, and the stage migration process, specifically in the case of the primate city in Latin America. Drawing upon their work, we might expect three urban spatial relation— ships to exist in the analysis of the Managuan migration data. A positive relationship will exist between the prob- ability of migrating from a departmental Igabecera to the primate city and the distance between the origin and the destination of the migrant. This is due to the social and physical distance that separates more distant rural origins from the capital or primate city. As distance from the primate city increases, the attractiveness of the nearest urban center increases. Thus, migrants from these areas would be more likely to come from the local urban center, where they may gain employment, education, or living ex— perience that would increase the likelihood that a future transfer to the primate city would be a successful one. We can expect a postitive relationship between the probability of migrating from a ggbgggrg and the percen- tage of the department population which is resident in the cabecera. In areas where a strong local urban focus exists, higher rates of migration would be expected from that urban centerausits migration field or sphere of in- fluence would dominate that of a more distant opportunity. 47 A positive relationship is also hypothesized between the migration probability and the population size of the cabecera. As Thomas and Catau put it, the proportion of a cabecera's contribution to a primate city's migration stream should increase as the cabecera's population in- creases (1974, p.115). Additionally, we anticipate that present-day rural populations will show a greater tendency to move directly to a primate city than they did in earlier periods. As a primate city and a nation develop more com- plex and extensive modes of mass communication; as trans- portation facilities improve, making remote areas more accessible; and as the educational system has greater effect upon the literacy levels of the population; we might expect that the residents of more rural areas would be more receptive to re-location in a major city. In traditional societies, where folk customs are closely adhered to and family kinship represents one of the strongest influences upon the individual, we might ex- pect these ties to play a major role in the individual's decision and ability to migrate. In an urban-industrial environment, where economic motives are a strong consider- ation for the individual competing in a more de-personal- ized society (than that of the rural area), economic incen- tives would play a more important role in the decision-to- migrate. Thus, we would expect that as a primate city develops through time, economic incentives would replace family ties as the primary criterion in the migration 48 decision-making process. Data and Analysis Fifteen months after the Managuan earthquake of December 23, 1972, a survey of heads of household was con- ducted in low-income housing areas of the capital. This survey yielded a sample which included 331 migrants out of 525 family heads, and simple correlation analysis of the dependent and independent variables was performed (Table 6). Table 6. Simple Correlation Matrix of Managuan Data —————..——.—.--—-———_-—_--. - --.—... .... .———_....._ _.-- ......u-.._ Y X X X l 2 3 Y 1.0000 X1 .3450 1.0000 (.239) X2 -.2360 -.5041 1.0000 (.778) X3 .2456 .2454 .1332 1.0000 (.220) where: Y = the percent of migrants which originated in the cabecera X1 = highway distance, X2 = the percent of a department's total population which is resident in the cabecera X3 = the number of migrants per 1000 population in the cabecera (.239) = significance level of correlation coefficient, r An examination of the distribution of Managuan migrant origins suggests that the volume of in—migration to the cap- ital city is inversely-related to the distance from the 49 origin (Figure 3). As hypothesized, a positive rela- tionship (r = .3450) is found between the propensity to migrate from the cabecera and the distance between the cabecera anui Managua. As distance increases between the cabecera (If origin and the primate city, the percentage of migrants which originate in the ggbgggrg increases. A negative relationship (r = -.2360) exists between the propensity to migrate from the cabecera and the pro- portion of the department's population which resides in the cabecera. This suggests that as a greater percentage of a department's population resides in the SEEEEEEE a declining percentage of the migrants from that department can be expected to move from the Egbgggrg to the primate city. These results are contradictory to the findings of Thomas and Catau in Guatemala, where the propensity to migrate is positively-related toifluapercentage of a depart- ment's population resident in the cabecera. A possible explanation may lie in the level of development of the urban hierarchy in Guatemala vis-a-vis that of Nicaragua. While Guatemala has a large rural population, there is a pronounced urban hierarchy as well, with several large cities located amidst the densely-populated rural high- lands. In Guatemala, the large secondary cities may serve as generating centers due to the social gap that exists between the rural highland Indians and the urban resident of Guatemala City. On the other hand, in Nicaragua the population is more centralized in the rural villages and 50 .m wusmflm fl... ION. Ion. ...E 2.8 ...... so... 6...... .... ..o .395... .856 3.3.9.. 0.0.5:. 0.7—m o.mI_.N ONIO Ben. 2.6.92 .0 3258?. ono E I I a D new .5336.» onm . 000 SE 280 000 _ 0mm Q? o vac/v m .8528”. .0 32a .34 ...: 08 p 050 gangs. 2 cozoBEISO 20.5.2.3 ONT 0! L on. . 51 municipio cabeceras. Also, there is less heterogeneity with regard to the ethnic composition of Nicaragua than that of Guatemala. Department cabeceras may be by-passed by the Nicaraguan rural migrant, after learning of the op- portunities in the national capital, or one of the larger department. cabeceras xmithin commuting distance of Managua. Thus, the results may indicate further evidence in support of the stage and step-wise migration pattern. The propensity to migrate to the primate city, Man— agua, and the size of the cabecera of origin are positive- ly related (r = .2456). Thus, larger' cabeceras do tend to contribute more migrants to the migration stream than smaller cabeceras. A.multiple correlations analysis of the dependent and independent variables produces a multiple correlation coefficient (R) of .4908 and a coefficient of determina- tion (R2) of .2409 (at .367 significance level). As a result, the independent variables explain approximately 24 percent of the variation in the dependent variable. While the level of explanation is low, it indicates that other factors account for the variation in the migration rates, and that modifications of the model may improve its pre- dictability. The Guatemalan study which serves as a model for this work had more cases to analyze and the author suspects that an increased number of cases would produce more favorable results in this study. Also, the impor- tance of the distance factor and the associated weight 52 ascribed to the friction-of-distance which reflects the relative accessibility of all locations, cannot be ignored. For this study, the distances along water transport routes were doubled to reflect the increased travel time for travelers using those routes. The researcher recognizes the somewhat arbitrary nature of this friction-of-distance factor and future research might explore alternative dis- tance-weighting factors to achieve higher levels of explan- ation. The migration data gathered in the family-head sur- vey exhibits a strong tendency towards direct migration to Managua. Of the 331 migrants in the head of household sample, almost 82 percent were individuals who had moved directly from their place of birth to the national capital. However, plotting the balance of the migrants by the date of their last move reveals an interesting trend (see Table 7). Table 7. Stage Migration to Managua __.-_.. -__.._._. - -.-... ... . . No. of Total Time Period Step Migrants Migrants Percent Tl Pre - 1933 3 30 10.0 T2 1934 - 1956 24 160 15.0 T3 1957 - 1967 17 91 18.6 T 1968 - 1972 16 38 42.1 4 53 From Table 7 it should be obvious to the reader that from the first time period (Tl) through the last period prior to the earthquake (T4), the percent of the Managuan migrant pool with step migration experience prior to their residence in Managua, increased from 10 to 42.1 percent, and most dramatically between periods T3 and T4. At least tentatively, we can say that stage migration appears to have been on the increase prior to the occurrence of the Managuan earthquake of 1972. We expect to see an increase in the participation of direct rural migrants to Managua over several periods of time. However, the data indicate that migrants from rural backgrounds are less common than during earlier time per- iods (see Figure 4). Recognizing that the definition of rural origin will have a significant effect on the outcome of this analysis, two definitions of rural areas were util- ized with similar results. If we incorporate a rigid defin- ition of rural areas as those which lie outside any depart- mental or municipio cabecera (trend line "A"), we reveal a steady decline in rural participation. If we broaden our definition of rural areas to include all areas outside of the department cabecera time trend line shows more variation but a similar downward trend. Moreover, trend line "B" indicates that the inclusion of rural municipio cabecera contributes greatly' to the size of the sample. It also reinforces the notion that stage migration may increase as additional rural municipios assume the role of 54 Rural Participation in the Managuan Migration Field I001 954 904 as- ea- 75 - 7o- 654 60' e \.. ”i \\. ,.-/’\_ 5° ‘ '\\.. /)' '\". 45. ‘ . ' ' \. 40‘ "\ " 35 ‘ . Percent (°/o) of Migrants l5" l0- 5' "\.../' I r U I PRE- |934- |956- l968- POST l933 l956 l967 I972 EQKE Date of Arrival in Managua _____. Rural Participation, by Place of Last Residence --..-- Rural Participation ,by Place of Birth .. ....... Rural Participation(non-cabecera), by Place of Last Residence ..-—...... Rural Participation (non-99.12.69.133). by Place of Birth _ ...... .. Rural Participation(inc. EQKE. victims), by Place of Last Residence Figure 4. d“ SourcmCalculated by author 55 generating centers for Managuan-bound migrants who were born in the rural area and then moved to the local village for a short time prior to re-locating in Managua. One might suspect that, by some process, the impact of the earthquake of 1972 may have been to select more rural migrants. However, if we include in the Managuan sample those migrants who were compelled to move to other cities due to the earthquake but who were resident in Managua before the disaster, we find that the trend line ("C") for rural participation still demonstrates a steady decline through each time period. Of great interest to planners, politicians and aca- demics are the factors which serve to provide incentive totjmamigrant, which include not only the positive aspects of the receiving center, but also the negative aspects of the generating areas. In the survey, heads-of—household were asked why they chose to leave their origin and what factors were important in their selection of a destination. The responses fell into two major response categories, family-influenced considerations and economic incentives (both positive and negative). Family-influenced consider- ations include decisions effected by the location of the extended family. Economic incentives include the pursuit of broader career and employment opportunities, improved living conditions and standards of living and broader edu- cational opportunities. The percentage of all migrants for each time period which fell into one of these two 56 response groups was then graphed (Figure 5)- While the inverse relationship between economic and family incentives is obvious and as hypothesized, the re- searcher notes certain difficulties with this analysis. It is likely that a higher percentage of migrants in the more recent time periods acted as individual decision-makers, responding to economic motivations, while earlier migrants arriving at a younger age may have moved in response to a decision made by their parents or relatives. Similarly, older family heads at the time of the survey were more apt to have moved at an earlier age because of a family decision, thus the percentage of family—influenced moves would be likely to decline over time as the actual migrant grew older and assumed the role of decision-maker. Still, the Latin custom of identifying the oldest member of the house- hold as the "head of household" lends some credence to the hypothesized relationship inasmuch as the older the re- spondent at the time of the survey, the better the chance they could have acted as an independent decision-maker when they were a migrant. Also the development of Managua as a primate city is relevant to this discussion. As the city assumed a greater degree of primacy, it would tend to monopolize the economic, educational, and social oppor- tunities available within the country. This perception might be inferred from the increase in the percentage of economically-motivated migrants in the sample. Further- more, urbanization, industrialization and modernization 57 Migration Incentives in the Managuan Migration Field IOO- 95- so- as- so. 75- 70- 65- so- 55« so« 45- 4o- 35- 30- Percent (°/o) of Migrants 25‘ 201 i5- IO-I 5.. ' v r PRE- i934- i937- .933- POST- l933 l956 i967 l972 EQKE 1" T2 T3 T4 T5 Date of Arrival in Managua ._._.__ Migration based on (-) Factors of Origin --..--- Migration based on (+) Economic Incentives at Destination -.-.-.-.- Migration based on Family-Tie Incentives at Destination -....._.... Migration based on Moves by Family at Origin Source: Calculated by author Figure 5 ° dle 58 have tended to disrupt the: traditional family structure in Western societies, breaking up the extended family into a more conjugal family form (Goode, 1964, p. 108 and Rodgers, 1972, p. 169-170). If the western example can be accepted as descriptive of the Nicaraguan case, then it follows that as Managua assumed higher levels of primacy and as the rest of the country became more urbanized, the extended Nicaraguan family would break down somewhat and be less a factor in the decision-to-migrate. CHAPTER V THE ROLE OF THE SECONDARY CITY "The next day, the city was under a pall of smoke and red dust. Thousands of refugees crowded the highways, carrying out what belongings they had been able to save."1 "Four-fifths of Managua's population has fled the city... City authorities have warned people to plan on staying away for at least six months."2 The mass re—distribution of Managua's urban popula- tion as a result of the earthquake of December 23, 1972, is an interesting event in terms of the sociological and geographical impacts which the catastrophe had upon the Nicaraguan society. This was a disaster which struck the heart of the nation, killing thousands of persons, injur— ing many more, and leaving tens of thousands hOmeless. That such a disaster could occur in a major city where several previous earthquakes gave ample warning to those that persisted to risk their lives and property, raises questions as to why their level of hazard perception was so low. The official reaction to the disaster was to 1"A City Dies in a Circle of Fire," Time, January 8, 1973, p. 22. 2"Rebuilding from Scratch," Newsweek, January 15, 1973, p. 33. 59 60 initiate the temporary evacuation of the central city, recommending that the public stay out of the core area for some six months until order could be restored. The flood of refugees spread across the country, overburdening adjacent cities with populations which doubled and tripled overnight. The supply of goods and services in these cities became a municipal nightmare as the refugee population taxed the local facilities beyond their capacity. This chapter examines the role of the secondary cities in Nicaragua, both pre- and post-earthquake in the country's migration system. The incidence of stage migra- tion, the change in rural participation and the consider- ations of the migrant in the decision-to-move are examined to identify the similarities and differences which exist between the secondary and the primate city. Hypotheses and Assumptions One of the central themes of all migration research is the distance-decay function of human interaction; i.e., the level of migration response between two areas is inversely-related to the distance between the two areas. This study assumes that the flight of the Managuan refugee is no different than any other form of human migration, and will be limited by the distance between Managua and the destination chosen by the refugee. Of those wishing to return, this friction-of-distance factor should reinforce 61 their desire to minimize the effort and distance of the return trip. We may expect that this migrant stream will exhibit certain directional biases which will affect a deviation from the re-location pattern created by the distance-decay function. Areas with available and/or inexpensive housing, job opportunities, etc., may be expected to attract larger numbers of migrants than might be expected under more nor- mal circumstances. However, as an immediate reaction to the distressing crisis of the earthquake, these factors will be less important than the attraction of family ties in the area of re-location. These areas represent an en- vironment which would be more comforting to the migrant inasmuch as some of the anxiety of moving to a new location is relieved by the migrant's familiarity with the area. Also, in a country where social security support systems are less developed, the family will provide the welfare relief (to the extent it is able), that might be unavail- able from public sources for the disaster victims. 'Upon closer examination, the migrants may choose to return to their last place of residence, and if such is the case, this return migration represents a reversal of the stage migration pattern described by their move to the primate city. The increased attractiveness of the secondary cities provides an opportunity to examine and identify the factors which make them attractive in com- parison with the primate city. This knowledge is valuable 62 in determining what programs or incentives the government might offer to make the secondary cities more attractive to the displaced migrant and cause them to re-locate, thus relieving some of the burden on the primate city. However, due to the circumstances surrounding this particular migra- tion event, it is assumed that such efforts would have less chance of success if based on the data herein described because of the over-riding response of fear and hazard evasion which is assumed to motivate the migrants discussed herein. Data and Analysis The data for this portion of the study was obtained from a questionnaire administered to a randomly-selected group of family heads in four cities in southwestern Nic- aragua. It was conducted in March and April of 1974, simultaneous to the Managuan survey, and the cities include three department capitals, namely, Masaya, Granada, and Jinotepe, and one municipio cabecera, Tipitapa, in the Department of Managua. The size of the migrant population in each of these cities varies between 26.6 and 75 percent, based on the sample taken. Due to the large influx of Managuan refugees after the earthquake, it may be useful to review the pre- earthquake situation in order to make more valid inferences as to the causes of any post—earthquake trends. Among those migrants who came to the four cities prior 63 to the 1972 earthquake, in two cases between T1 and T2, there is a noticeable decline in the percentage of mi- grants with previous migration experience (Figure 6). However, during periods T2 through T4, there is an increase in the percentage of in-coming migrants with previous mi— gration experience. The sharp increase in step-migration during the last, post-earthquake, period represents the addition of these former direct migrants to Managua who had to leave after the earthquake. Nevertheless, it appears that stage migration had been increasing throughout the country since as the percentage of these step-migrants to Managua increased, so too did the percentage of step- migrants to the secondary cities increase. The secondary cities were functioning as generating centers for migrants to Managua, while being supplied with in-migrants from the municipio cabeceras and the smaller rural villages. Any clear impressions as to the level of rural par- ticipation in the migration "pool" of the secondary cities are difficult to formulate for several reasons. Limited sample sizes for the various time periods is one drawback. Also, the definition of rural origins leaves a broad area for interpretation. The effect of this variation can be seen, for example, in the case of Masaya and Granada, two cities which demonstrate similar migration patterns (Figures 7 and 8). When "rural origin" includes only rural villages and the countryside, the level of in-migration from these areas fluctuates between 10 and 20 percent over several 64 The Incidence of Stage Migration to 4 Secondary Cities loo- 954 so- es ‘ em 75< 70‘ ss~ eo~ 55- 504 45 - 404 as. am 254 Percent (°/.) of Migrants 20" IO‘ 5- Source:Calculated by author Date of Arrival ...... Masaya Granada Jinotepe Tipita pa Figure 6. die 65 Rural Participation in the Masaya Migration Field lOO-i 95+ 90-1 es« 801 75- 704 65% /A'\. 60 -i ,.- / \X 55- ’7- so- / '\ '\ 45+ ‘\ -. 40‘ \'\. '\. .. --"' ' "\., Percent (%) of Migrants 201 Date of Arrival Rural Participation,by Last Place of Residence ........ Rural Participation,by Place of Birth ......... .. Rural Participation (non-M), by Last Place of Residence Rural Participation (non-cabecera), by Place of Birth Figure 7. Source= Calculated by author die 66 Rural Participation in the Granada Migration Field IOO - a. so- era-i ecu 75- 70 "i 65" eoi 55 1 .A. 50 ‘ A" H'x'j\., \, \ 45- ,1" \ 40- me 251 20" l5- l0- 5. Percent (7..) of Migrants Date of Arrival ...—...... Rural Participation, by Last Place of Residence -----.“ Rural Participation, by Place of Birth Rural Participation (non-cabecera), by Last Place of Residence ...... ..... _. Rural Participation(non-cabecera), by Place of Birth Figure 8. Source: Calculated by author die 67 time periods. However, by including all towns except the department capitals or cabeceras as rural origins, along with the rural villages and the countryside, a decline in rural migration participation is noticed over several time periods. Adopting the latter definition may help through- out the country for longitudinal analysis with the urban life style of Managua. Moreover, we see this decline in rural participation repeated in Tipitapa (Figure 9), where the percentage of the migrant pool from rural origins dropped from 75 percent in T2 to roughly 16 percent in T4. When taken together, the data for all four secondary cities suggest that they may have become more important as generating centers of Managuan-bound migrants and as receiving centers for mi— grants from smaller municipio cabeceras. When we consider the evidence from the analysis of both primate and secondary cities together, it appears that some important differences exist between the conlu— sions drawn from the Guatemalan studies of stage migration and the Nicaraguan case. While the incidence of stage migration appears to increase with increasing distances from the primate city in both countries, in Guatemala this process appears to be breaking down, whereas in Nicaragua, the reverse is true. In Guatemala, the research of Thomas and others has shown that the percentage of direct rural migrants increases over several time periods, while in Nicaragua, stage migration appears to be increasing. Most 68 Rural Participation in the Tipitapa Migration Field 754 \ _ Percent (7.) of Migrants & 9 l5‘ Date of Arrival Rural Participation,by Last Place of Residence ----....-. Rural Participation,by Place of Birth .. ..... .. Rural Participation(non-cabecera), by Last Place of Residence -..-..-... Rural Participation(non-cabecem), by Place of Birth Figure 9. Source! Calculated by author dle 69 important of several possible causes for this difference, presumably, is the relative size of the two primate cities involved. It is logical to assume that Guatemala City, with a population of more than a million inhabitants, has a broader sphere of influence than does Managua, with 450,000 to 500,000 inhabitants. Central place theory says that the larger the size of the city, the more specialized or the more "higher order" the goods and services which it can provide and the broader the "range" of those goods (or the larger the hinterland of that central place). If Managua has not attained a comparable threshold size as that of Guatemala City, its sphere of influence or migra— tion field may not reach out sufficiently to attract the rural residents who identify with their local urban center. In other words, the primate city has not attained, under these circumstances, the status of an intervening oppor- tunity to the migration fields which surround the secondary urban centers. The factors which affect the decision-to-migrate are associated with both the origin and the destination of the migrant. Primary among these in the Nicaraguan study seems to be family-tie considerations and economic incentives. An analysis of the factors which tend to force migrants from the origin reveals a similar pattern for Granada and Masaya, i.e., a: decline in family-decision motivated moves and an increase in economic ones. Similarly, an examin- ation of the factors attracting migrants to the secondary 70 cities shows a decline in family tie considerations and an increase in the importance of the economic attractions of the city. However, as noted earlier in the discussion of the Managuan example, these conclusions are rather ten- tative due to the inherent bias of the responses when com— pared on a longitudinal basis. The data for Jinotepe and Tipitapa are less conclu- sive. This may be due, in part, to the small sample sizes. To use percentages with these smaller samples tends to ex- agerate the variation in the actual response levels. How— ever, despite its smaller size, Tipitapa behaves more like Masaya or Granada than it does Jinotepe, a city of similar size. That Jinotepe should stand out with a unique re- sponse pattern is difficult to explain (Figure 10). Apart from having the smallest study population, other factors appear to affect Jinotepe's anamolous response pattern. While Granada, Masaya, and Tipitapa all are located along the major north-south highway route, Jinotepe is not. This easy access to Managua may allow the influence of the primate city to encroach on the migration fields of these cities more than the case of Jinotepe. However, more im— portant than the accessability to Managua, the position of the city in the urban hierarchy may affect a change in its attractiveness to potential migrants. Jinotepe, while a departmental cabecera, shares its local urban identity with its twin-sister city, Diriamba. Consequently, the lack of a strong local urban focus, which Masaya, Granada, 71 Rural Participation in the Jinotepe Migration Field |001 95-l 90-1 85" 45‘ i \- ../' \i 40 1 "V ‘\'\ a d 20" IO- Dd sci Percent ('l.) of Migrants Date of Arrival Rural Participation, by Last Place of Residence _____ .. Rural Participation, by Place of Birth Rural Participation(non-cabecera), by Last Place of Residence Rural Participation(non-cabecera), by Place of Birth Figure 10. Source: Calculated by author die 72 and Tipitapa provide, and the more inaccessible location of the city, may combine to cause greater variation in the responses from Jinotepe. After the earthquake, for all four cities, economic incentives and family connections both declined as a per- centage of the migrants' responses (Figures 11 and 12). During the post-earthquake period, the majority of the mi- grants came from Managua, and of the remaining in-migrants, economic factors were most often mentioned as the reason for leaving their last place of residence. Furthermore, family tie considerations were cited most often as the reason for choosing their destination in one of the four major cities. Rising expectations amongtJMirural migrants is cited frequently as one of the principal migration incen- tives. However, we might expect a parallel gain in the economic incentive motivation at the destination if this were entirely the case. I suspect that the disenchantment with the rural or smaller urban area is created by the mass media and the images created by intra-family communication. In a centralized economy such as that of Nicaragua, where a monopolistic autocracy exists, job opportunities are realized frequently through the applicant's connections, as well as their personal qualifications. Family ties, then, become inextricably mixed with economic motivations, and indirect factors become more important than the obvious. 73 The Influence of Family Tie Location on the Decision-to- Migrate ICO-l g 95'l 1 90-1 85‘ 80- 75q 701 65- 60- 55-l ”- 45- 40- 35'! 30: 25. 20'l l5-i IO-i Percent (°/o) of Total Migrant Pool 54 Date of Arrival Masaya ....... Granada .. ........ Jinotepe _ ........... Tipitapa Figure 11. Source: Calculated by author «Si 74 The htluence of Economic Factors on the Decision-to-Migrate IOO '1 95 - 90 '- 85 - 80 u 75 ' 7O 1 3 so - 60 d A. *5 55 l \. .. . \ u ' I E I. P "\ \ // \E: 0e- 40 u . " '- \. - O. / \ 2 .I ./ \-- i $ 35 - / / \“x‘ \h : w‘ .--- .-. __.___-~"_...--./,/.\..\\ E'.\\ C 0%.... .....-_,...---""' o. \ § 25 - / / '\-\\ \\ g 20 ‘ l,/. \\I\ ‘3‘... \ l5 .. / .. \' \"- l0 s 'l' Y: I/ 5- j 1 TI 72 T3 T4 T5 Date of Arrival Masaya _ _____ ._ Granada _ ..... __ Jinotepe -..-......- Tipitapa Figure 12. Source= Calculated by author d is] v is \' lit-r; .Cn. 11.374‘r- ’5 nun" .- . CHAPTER VI SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS The important role which migration has had in the urbanization of the Nicaraguan population is unmistakeable. Managua has grown into a sprawling, primate city which evidences all the urban problems of primate cities in Latin America and the rest of the world, including the supply of foodstuffs, water, energy, transportation, health care, housing, education, and employment. This study analyzes two aspects of the Nicaraguan migration question; the pre- earthquake pattern that contributed to the growth of this primate city, the impact of a devastating earthquake in the capital on the migration systems of surrounding secondary cities, and the factors which were influential in determin- ing the direction and extent of the out-migration stream from Managua after the earthquake. To explain the evolving Managuan migration system, four relationships were hypothesized. A positive relation- ship was expected, and found, to exist between the proba- bility of moving from a department cabecera to the primate city and the distance between the migrant's origin and des— tination. This confirms the generally universal finding that migration is inversely-related to distance. 75 76 A positive relationship was hypothesized to exist between the probability of moving from a cabecera and the size of that cabecera relative to the total department population. The data, however, indicated a weak negative relationship between these variables, suggesting that as cabeceras increase their size relative to the total pop- ulation of the department, they tend to hold their popula- tion rather than serving as generating centers for in- creased migration to Managua. Migration probability and the absolute size of the cabecera are positively related, as hypothesized. This suggests that the largest cabeceras serve as the primary generating centers of migrants to Managua, when all other factors are constant. When all three variables are con- sidered together in multiple regression analysis, they do not explain adequately the variation in migration rates to the capital. Until the time of the 1972 Managuan earthquake, stage migration was an increasingly important factor in explain- ing the migration system, as was discussed in the Guatemal— an case studies and hypothesized here. During four time periods, spanning almost 40 years, the percentage of in- coming migrants who had moved at least once prior to locat- ing in Managua increased from 10.0 to 42.1 percent. Also during this same time period, the participation of rural migrants in the migration system of the capital declined, indicating the strengthening of the stage migration process 77 during that time. After the earthquake three factors were assumed to be most influential in determining the destination of refugees fleeing the city. The distance between Managua and the refugees' destination was expected, and found, to be inversely related to the volume of refugees seeking shelter at that location. Also, the existence of estab- lished family ties at the destination and the volume of in-migration was positively-related, as hypothesized. Despite the threat of a reoccurrence of the Managuan "Fill—1K we‘o- n disaster, the city regained its pre-earthquake population within a matter of a few months. The importance of Managua as the economic capital of the nation is clear. Interviews with Managuan earthquake refugees in Masaya indicate that many are afraid to return to the city but they cannot afford to cut their economic ties with the capital, where the wage scale is considerably higher than anywhere else in the country and employment was booming with the recon- struction efforts. While many have returned to Managua, some have chosen to live in one of the nearby cities and commute daily into the capital. Others live in the city with friends and family and return to their family on the weekend.' The increase in commuters to Managua has created tremendous demand for transportation between the capital and the secondary cities, and the proliferation of small bus companies and car pools has created much heavier use of the inter-city highways than intended in their design, 78 with the resultant increase in traffic accidents and fatal- ities. Meanwhile the re-construction of downtown Managua has been delaYed while politicians and planners debate the rel- ative risks of re-development of the central business dis— trict. While they debate public programs, commercial developers have turned their attention to extensive commer- cial and residential suburban developments which transform many acres of suburban arable land into costly developments which cater to the wealthy families who moved to the suburbs after the earthquake. At the same time, due to the sprawl- ing development of the city, the provision of goods and services to the low-income families has deteriorated to the point where shopping trips are difficult and expensive. The demand for intra—urban transportation after the earthquake has caused an increase in its cost, hitting the low-income groups the hardest. To facilitate rapid transit, new, divided, semi-limited access highways were built around the city. The increased travel time to move around the city, coupled with the high demand for transportation, has brought about high travel speeds on these highways and created extremely hazardous conditions. A In view of the commercial and residential development of the outskirts of the city and with the return of many of those who had left in the first days after the earth— quake disaster, one may wonder what has become of the secon- dary cities and their role in the urban future of Nicaragua. 79 Managuan planners debate the merits of land use planning and seismic-resistant architecture to avert another disas- ter, and politicians scramble to regain support in the transformed Managuan community. Prior to the earthquake, the national government correctly identified the potential problem with continued centralization of the national econ- omy and initiated a program to study the problem and devel- op strategies for de-centralization. However, all these plans require re-arrangement of national priorities and substantial public investment. With the financial loss suffered in the earthquake, national priorities and avail- able funds were channeled into the re-construction effort. This program is very important for the future development of the country and for the more orderly growth of the capi- tal city. The author hopes that this study has helped to identify some important considerations which might facil- itate the Nicaraguan planning efforts thereby restoring some semblance of normality in the lives of those most directly effected by the earthquake. APPENDIX SURVEY QUESTIONNAIRE 80 No. de la entrevista Para uso del codificador. Buenos dias (buenas tardes), me llamo: Varias Instituciones quieren saber algunos datos de estos Barrios jpara hacer programas de Desarrollo. Le agradeceré que tenga la amabilidad de contestarme unas cuantas preguntas. Barrio: Ciudad: Fecha: l. Cuantas familias viven en esta casa? (SI VIVE MAS DE UNA FAMILIA, DIGALE QUE QUIERE HABLAR CON UNA PERSONA DE CADA FAMILIA; Y HA- GA UN CUESTIONARIO POR FAMILIA). 2. Quién es el jefe de la familia? 1. ____ Hombre 2. ____ Mujer 3. Qué edad tiene el jefe de la familia? 4. Cual es la profesion 0 el oficio del jefe de la familia? (ESPECIFIQUE LO MAS QUE PUEDA) 10. 81 Qué profesi6n u oficio desempefia ahora el jefe de la familia? (ESPECIFIQUE LO MAS QUE PUEDA) Desde hace cuanto tiempo desempefia esa profesion el jefe de la familia? (INDIQUE EL TIEMPO EN ANOS, MESES o SEMANAS). Asistid a la escuela e1 jefe de la familia 1. No ; Si, Cuél fue el ultimo grado o afio que aprobo? 2. ____ lo. a 30. de primaria 3. ____ 40. a 60. de primaria 4. ____ lo. a 30. de secundaria 5. ____ 40. a 60. de secundaria 0 normal 6. Algunos afios de universidad 0 de ensefianza superior. 7. Termind una carrera universitaria o superior De qué departamento es el jefe de la familia? Vivia e1 jefe en: l. una ciudad. Cuél? 2. un pueblo. Cuél? 3. en el campo? En qué departmento? (AL JEFE DE LA FAMILIA) Me puede decir por favor, donde vivio? l. hasta los 14 afios de edad. ll. 12. 13. 82 2. de los 15 a los 19 afios. 3. de los 20 a los 24 afios. 4. de los 25 a los 29 afios. 5. de los 30 a los 40 afios. 6. de los 41 en adelante (SE EL JEFE NO ES DE LA CIUDAD EN QUE SE ESTA ENTREVIS- TANDO) Por qué se vino a vivir a eSta ciudad el jefe de le familia? (ESCRIBA TODAS LAS RAZONES QUE LE DE) Alguna otra? (SE EL JEFE NO ES DE LA CIUDAD EN QUE SE ESTA ENTREVIS- TANDO) Me puede decir, con quién vivid a su llegada a esta Ciudad? (LEA LAS ALTERNATIVAS AL ENTREVISTADO) I l. ____ Con familiares que Vivian aqui antes 2. ____ con amigos o conocidos 3. ____ independiente 4. otro (ESPECIFIQUE) Piensa vivir en esta ciudad durante los préximos 5 afios e1 jefe de la familia? ’ 1. Si 2. No sé 3. No. A dénde piensa ir? Por qué se va? 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. 83 Alguna otra razon Cuales cree Ud. que son los problemas mas importantes de su barrio? (ESCRIBA LOS TRES PRIMEROS QUE LE DIGA) Cuéntas personas de su familia viven en esta casa? Hay diferentes opiniones acerca de tener muchos hijos. Levoy a leer algunas para que me diga cual se parece mas a su opinion personal. El tener muchos hijos es: 1. ____ una bendicién para el hogar 2. ____ Un problema 3. ____ Algo fitil 4. Algo indiferente. (AL ENTREVISTADO) Cual cree usted que es el nfimero ideal de hijos para una pareja? Qué prefiere tener usted. (LEA LAS ALTERNATIVAS AL ENTEVISTADO) 1. ____ Hijos varones 2. ____ Hijas mujeres 3. De los dos 4. Cualquiera 1e da igual. 84 19. (A LA MADRE DE FAMILIAO LA ESPOSA DEL JEFE) Cuantos hijos ha tenido usted? 20. (A LA MADRE DE FAMILIA 0 LA ESPOSA DEL JEFE) Se la ha muerto algfin nifio despunés de nacido y menor de 5 afios?. 1. No. ——~_ 2. Si. Cual fue el nifio que se le murié? (ENCIERRE EN UN CIRCULO LA(S) REPUESTA(S) CORRECTA(S). E1 10., e1 20., e1 30., e1 40., e1 50., e1 60., e1 70., e1 80., e1 90., e1 100., el 110., el 12., e1 13., e1 140. 21 . (AL ENTREVISTADO) Ha oido hablar de algfin método para evitar los hijos? 1. No 2. Si. De cuales? 22 (AL ENTREVISTODO) A qué cree usted que se debe el que haya pobreza en Nicaragua? (ESCRIBA TODO LO QUE LE DIGAN) . (AGRADEZCA LA ENTREVISTA) 85 OBSERVACIONES DEL ENCUESTADOR Con qué persona de la familia hablé? Esta familia vivo en: Una cuarteria Una casa independiente Una casa construida en el patio de otra. Una casa de una colonia del INVI OtrO (ESPECIFIQUE) material que predomina en las paredes de la casa es: Madera Taquezal 0 adobe Bloques o concreto Es una casa de ripios (carton, zinc, etc). OtrO (ESPECIFIQUE) casa predomina e1 piso de: Tierra Embaldozado Ladrillo OtrO (ESPECIFIQUE) A su parecer e1 aspecto de la casa es: 1. 2. 3. Muy pobre Pobre Regular 86 4. Bueno 5. Muy bueno. F. 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' ‘ - Q anzassarv. rdxj’é ”Ami” '12‘0-{13'2E‘V‘ :3 my. ee~ w“ v”.;v‘; I.” ...... .l- ii‘ y‘i.