HANDGUN CARRYING PERMITS:A REACTION TO LOCAL VIOLENT CRIME AND NATIONALLY PUBLICIZED MASS MURDERS?ByBrandon TurchanRecently, there has been rapid growth in the number of people applying for handgun carrying permits (HCP). This research investigated monthly HCP application rates at the county-level in Tennessee from 2008 through 2012 to identify possible factors behind the dramatic increase. Two factors hypothesized to be associated with HCP application rates were local violent crime rates and the occurrence of nationally publicized mass murders. First, a concurrent time series design was used to test for a relationship between local rates of murder, robbery, aggravated assault rate, forcible rape, and motor vehicle theft with HCP application rates. A Granger causality test was used to investigate simultaneity between the two key variables. Second, an interrupted time series design tested whether there was a relationship between nationally publicized mass murders and HCP application rates. Local murder, forcible rape, and robbery rates were found to be unrelated to HCP application rates, with mixed results for aggravated assault and motor vehicle theft rates. Also, results were mixed regarding the relationship between nationally publicized mass murders and HCP application rates but evidence suggests that an association may exist. Results are discussed in terms of theory and policy implications.
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