2 an .._. “L. . a...“ ya 3; . 7-, [.1 .7 , Lenin; L .5331!!! , I}: . 25.9.! as. 11.5%.. E, 31.15,. 7.3.... nu .. s ,1. {—‘lf‘ - {‘ pa.) I 59 W #4" 1,1 This is to certify that the dissertation entitled THE EFFECTS OF TUITION DISCOUNTING AT PRIVATE, BACCALAUREATE-LEVEL INSTITUTIONS OF HIGHER EDUCATION presented by MELISSA RUTERBUSCH has been accepted towards fulfillment of the requirements for the PhD. degree in Higher, Adult, and Lifelong Education ”in WU.) S EMMA 0 Major Professor’s Signature 3-1 8-2004 Date MSU is an Afflnnative Action/Equal Opportunity Institution LIBRARY Michigan State University PLACE IN RETURN BOX to remove this checkout from your record. TO AVOID FINES return on or before date due. MAY BE RECALLED with earlier due date if requested. DATE DUE DATE DUE DATE DUE 6/01 c:/CIRC/DateDue.p65—p,15 THE EFFECTS OF TUITION DISCOUNTING AT PRIVATE, BACCALAUREATE-LEVEL INSTITUTIONS OF HIGHER EDUCATION By Melissa Ruterbusch A DISSERTATION Submitted to Michigan State University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY Department of Educational Administration 2004 ABSTRACT THE EFFECTS OF TUITION DISCOUNTING AT PRIVATE, BACCALAUREATE-LEVEL INSTITUTIONS OF HIGHER EDUCATION By Melissa Ru‘terbusch When colleges and universities use their own financial resources to award grants and scholarships to students it is referred to as tuition discounting. This practice allows institutions to charge lower than “sticker price” tuition rates to selected students. The concept of tuition discounting is not new; for years, institutions have offered discounted tuition rates to students in order to reward merit, to assist financially needy students, and to expand diversity. In recent years, however, a fourth reason for tuition discounting has emerged at some institutions. For these institutions, the main purpose of tuition discounting is to fill otherwise empty seats in classrooms and to enroll enough students to remain fiscally solvent. The primary purpose of this study of private, baccalaureate level institutions of higher education was to explore the pattern of tuition discounting between 1990 and 2000, to analyze variations in tuition discounting by institutional type, and to determine the relationship between tuition discounting and institutional financial health. The findings of this study indicate that tuition discounting is on the rise for this sector of higher education. Between 1990 and 2000, tuition discounting rates rose by approximately 7 percentage points. Second, tuition discounting does vary based on institutional demographics such as religious affiliation, size, endowment, and expenditures. Finally, tuition discounting does appear to have an impact on the financial health of institutions—it appears that tuition discounting is generally negatively related to institutional financial health. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to thank my husband Kurt for his love and support in every aspect of my life! I never could have completed this project without his continuous encouragement and faith in me. Additionally, I would like to thank my mom, Sandy Hale, for her help with typing and her constant words of encouragement. Also, thanks to my advisor, Dr. James Fairweather for his countless hours of assistance, and never-ending patience. Finally, I would like to thank my dissertation committee—Dr. Marylee Davis, Dr. Richard Hula, and Dr. David Plank—for their encouragement and support. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS List of Tables ........................................................................................ vi List of Figures ........................................................................................ i: Chapter One: Statement of Purpose and Research Questions ............................................. Introduction ...................................................................................................................... Confusion with Terminology ........................................................................................... The Shift and Growth in Tuition Discounting ................................................................. Tuition Discounting Mechanics ..................................................................................... 1 Statement of Purpose/Research Questions .................................................................... 1 Audience ........................................................................................................................ 1 Chapter Two: Literature Review ....................................................................................... 1 Description of the Literature .......................................................................................... 1 I. General Aspects of Tuition Discounting ................................................................... 1 Tuition Discounting Growth ...................................................................................... 1 Factors that Have Contributed to Tuition Discounting Growth ................................. 1 Institutional Participation in Tuition Discounting ...................................................... 2- II. Outcomes Literature ................................................................................................. 3 The Impact of Tuition Discounting on Enrollment .................................................... 3 Need, Merit, and Willingness ..................................................................................... 3 Financial Aspects of Tuition Discounting .................................................................. 4 Chapter Three: Design and Methodology ......................................................................... 4 Research Questions ........................................................................................................ 4 Data Sources .................................................................................................................. 4 Integrated Postsecondary Education Data Analysis ................................................... 4 Peterson’s Guide to Four-Year Colleges .................................................................... 5 US. News and World Report: America’s Best Colleges ........................................... 5 Selection of Institutions ................................................................................................. 5 Conceptual Framework .................................................................................................. 5 Outcome Variables: Institutional Financial Health ....................................................... 5 Institutional Descriptors ................................................................................................. 5 Indicators of Student Quality ......................................................................................... 6 Indicators of Institutional Quality .................................................................................. 6 The Tuition Discount Rate ............................................................................................ 6 Data Analysis Methods .................................................................................................. 6 Chapter Four: Analysis ofthe Data ............. 6 Rationale for Separate Analysis of BAI and BAH Institutions ...................................... 6 General Description of the BAI Sample ........................................................................ 7 General Description of the BAII Sample ....................................................................... 7 Research Question 1: Patterns of Tuition Discounting and Financial Health .............. 7 Research Question 2: Variations in Tuition Discounting, BAI Institutions .................. 79 Variations in Tuition Discounting, BAII Institutions .................................................... 86 Research Question 3: Tuition Discounting and Institutional Financial Health ............ 92 Tuition Discounting and Institutional Health, BAI Institutions .................................... 93 Regressions with Grouped Data .................................................................................. 107 Chapter Five: Discussion and Conclusions Summary and Discussion of Findings ......................................................................... 109 Implications for Stakeholders ...................................................................................... 114 Future Research ........................................................................................................... 121 Appendix A: Variable Calculation Grids ........................................................................ 123 Appendix B: Variables .................................................................................................... 128 Appendix C: Descriptive Statistics ................................................................................. 130 Appendix D: List of Institutions by State ....................................................................... 134 Appendix E: Correlations for Institutional Quality Variables ........................................ 141 Appendix F: Regression Results, Grouped Data ............................................................ 143 References ....................................................................................................................... 149 Vi LIST OF TABLES Table 1. Tuition and Enrollment Demand, 3 similar colleges ......................................... 12 Table 2. Pricing Strategies (Hypothetical Data) ............................................................... 13 Table 3. Tuition Discounting Rates, Redd’s Study, 2000 ................................................ 25 Table 4. Institutional Aid Policy ...................................................................................... 45 Table 5. Population vs. Sample ........................................................................................ 54 Table 6. Comparison of BAI and BAII Institutions ......................................................... 69 Table 7. Tuition Discount Rates, BAI Institutions ........................................................... 75 Table 8. Financial Health Variables, BAI Institutions ..................................................... 76 Table 9. Tuition Discount Rates, BAH Institutions ......................................................... 77 Table 10. Financial Health Variables, BAII Institutions .................................................. 79 Table 11. Mean Difference in Tuition Discount Rates, 1990-2000, Based on Enrollment, BAI Institutions .......................................................................................................... 80 Table 12. Mean Tuition Discount Rates, 1990-2000, Based on Geographic Location... 81 Table 13. Mean Tuition Discount Rates, 1990-2000, Based on Institutional Age, BAI. 82 Table 14. Mean Differences in Average Tuition Discount Rates, 1990-2000, Based on Admissions Competitiveness Rating, BAI Institutions .............................................. 83 Table 15. Mean Tuition Discount Rates, 1990-2000, Based on Academic Reputation Score, BAI .................................................................................................................. 84 Table 16. Mean Tuition Discount Rates, 1990-2000, Based on Total Educational and General Expenditures, BAI ........................................................................................ 84 Table 17. Mean Tuition Discount Rates, 1990-2000, Based on Endowment, BAI ......... 85 Table 18. Mean Tuition Discount Rates, 1990-2000, Based on Minority Enrollment, BAH ............................................................................................................................ 86 Table 19. Mean Tuition Discount Rates, 1990—2000 Based on Geographic Location ..... 87 Table 20. Mean Tuition Discount Rates, 1990-2000, Based on Institutional Age, BA1188 Table 21. Mean Tuition Discount Rates, 1990-2000, Based on Academic Reputation Score, BAII ................................................................................................................. 89 Table 22. Mean Tuition Discount Rates, 1990-2000, Based on Admissions Competitiveness Rating, BAII Institutions ................................................................. 89 Table 23. Mean Tuition Discount Rates, 1990-2000, Based on F aculty-Student Ratio, BAH ............................................................................................................................ 90 Table 24. Mean Tuition Discount Rates, 1990-2000, Based on Endowment, BAH ........ 91 Table 25. Regression Coefficients, 1990, Net Tuition Revenue Per Student as Dependent Variable, BAI Institutions .......................................................................................... 93 Table 26. Regression Coefficients, 1995, Net Tuition Revenue Per Student as Dependent Variable, BAI Institutions .......................................................................................... 94 Table 27. Regression Coefficients, 2000, Net Tuition Revenue Per Student as Dependent Variable, BAI Institutions .......................................................................................... 96 Table 28. Regression Coefficients, 1990, Net Tuition Revenue as Dependent Variable, BAI Institutions .......................................................................................................... 97 Table 29. Regression Coefficients, 1995, Net Tuition Revenue as Dependent Variable, BAI Institutions .......................................................................................................... 98 vii Table 30. Regression Coefficients, 2000, Net Tuition Revenue as Dependent Variable, BAI Institutions .......................................................................................................... 99 Table 31. Regression Coefficients, 1990, Net Tuition Revenue Per Student as Dependent Variable, BAII Institutions ....................................................................................... 100 Table 32. Regression Coefficients, 1995, Net Tuition Revenue Per Student as Dependent Variable, BAII Institutions ....................................................................................... 101 Table 33. Regression Coefficients, 2000, Net Tuition Revenue Per Student as Dependent Variable, BAH Institutions ....................................................................................... 102 Table 34. Regression Coefficients, 1990, Net Tuition Revenue as Dependent Variable, BAH Institutions ....................................................................................................... 103 Table 35. Regression Coefficients, 1995, Net Tuition Revenue as Dependent Variable, BAII Institutions ....................................................................................................... 104 Table 36. Regression Coefficients, 2000, Net Tuition Revenue as Dependent Variable, BAH Institutions ....................................................................................................... 105 Table 37. Summary of Statistically Significant Regression Coefficients. BAI and BAII Institutions ................................................................................................................ 106 Table 38. Regression Results, BAI and BAH Institutions, Grouped*. .......................... 108 Table 39. Significant Mean Differences Among Institutional Types ............................ 110 Table 40. Yield Table-Admitted Applicants with Financial Need of $6000-$7000 (Hypothetical Data). ................................................................................................. 1 16 \riii LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1. Elastic Demand ................................................................................................. 10 Figure 2. Inelastic Demand .............................................................................................. 11 Figure 3. Graphical Portrayal of Tuition Discounting ..................................................... 14 ix Chapter One: Statement of Purpose and Research Questions Introduction In 2002, nearly $90 billion in financial assistance was awarded to college students in the United States. Over 8 million students benefited from this assistance at over 9000 post-secondary institutions (Trends in Student Aid, 2002). Financial assistance helps students defray part of the growing cost of higher education. Earning a college degree generates an estimated $1 million in extra lifetime earning when compared to high school graduates (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2002). The concept of awarding financial assistance to college students is not new. In fact, America’s first scholarship dates to 1643, when a wealthy individual donated 100 pounds to start a scholarship fund at Harvard College (Wick, 1997, p. 1). Financial aid is important because, in different forms, it serves both to reward merit and to assist needy and deserving students—those capable of, but not able to afford, a higher education. Financial aid is an investment in human capital—an investment with a significant and positive rate of return for both student and society. Student financial assistance comes from three primary sources: the federal government; state governments; and the colleges and universities. The federal government awards nearly 72% of the total available student financial aid. The major federal financial aid programs include Federal Pell Grants, Federal Work Study, and various federal student loan programs. Most state governments also award student financial assistance, which comprises about 5% of the total student aid awarded. Colleges and universities use their own resources to provide about 23% of all financial aid to students. This aid is usually referred to as institutional aid and can be funded (meaning the aid is funded by the institution’s endowment earnings or by gifts) or unfimded (meaning the institution has agreed to forego a portion of the posted tuition price). Either way, the student pays less than full tuition price. Regardless of whether the aid is ftmded or unfunded, the “reduction” in the student’s price is called a grant or a scholarship. From the student’s perspective, there is no distinction. When colleges use their own institutional resources to offer grants and scholarships to students, it is referred to as tuition discounting. This practice allows institutions to charge lower than “sticker price” tuition rates to students who may be unwilling or unable to pay the full tuition price. The institutions can, through discounting, charge different prices to different students for the same educational service—a practice generally known as price discrimination. Price discrimination is a term used by economists to describe charging different prices to different customers for the same product or service. This is not an illegal or even an uncommon practice. Long distance carriers charge different prices based on the time of day in order to charge businesses (who make calls during normal business hours) a higher price than household consumers (who normally make calls in the evenings and weekends). Another common form of price discrimination involves airline fares. Individuals who book early, travel on weekends, or accept non-refundable tickets usually pay less for the same airline service than the less flexible air traveler. Colleges and universities engage in tuition discounting for several reasons. The first reason is to help financially needy students and families. Historically, this is the major rationale for tuition discounting (Baum & Schwartz, 1988, p. 127). The earliest financial aid was intended to assist “poor and pious youth and indigent young men of merit” (Princeton Weekly Bulletin, 2003, p. 1). Offering discounted tuition rates to lower and middle income families encourages attendance at institutions that would normally be out of their reach financially. A second reason that institutions discount tuition is to attract high quality students (based on high grades and entrance test scores) because these students help to enhance the reputation of the institution. Financial assistance awarded to students based on “quality” are usually referred to as merit-based scholarships. Alfred MacKay (1992) reminds us that if the market fails to “provide sufficient talent to satisfy a college’s educational aims [then it is] justified on educational grounds in spending a reasonable amount (i.e. providing financial aid) to achieve those aims” (p. 50). A third reason that institutions discount tuition to selected students is to create ethnic diversity within their student bodies. As with merit based aid, “if the market does not, without prompting, provide sufficient diversity to satisfy a college’s educational aims, then if it can afford to, a college is justified on educational grounds in spending a reasonable amount (i.e., providing financial aid) to achieve those aims” (MacKay, 1992. p. 50). The concept of offering reduced tuition rates for these three reasons—financial need, merit, and diversity—is not new. In recent years, however, a fourth reason for tuition discounting has emerged at some institutions—a strictly financial reason. For these institutions, the main purpose for tuition discounting is to fill otherwise empty seats in classrooms, and to enroll enough students to remain fiscally solvent (Collison, 1992, p. A28). In other words, tuition discounting has become a means of extracting “the maximum revenue from every customer” (Graham, 1997, p. Bl). As Lapovsky (1996) notes, “[t]he price differences for many students aren’t related to ability to pay but rather willingness to pay and the desire of the institution to enroll that student” (Lapovsky, 1996, p. 25). Recent research supports the claim that discounts are increasingly being used to entice students to enroll and not necessarily to assist financially needy students, to reward merit, or to expand diversity (Loomis-Hubbell, 1992). Additionally, the discount rate is invariably higher for incoming freshmen than for upperclass students, indicating a focus on enrollment rather than merit, diversity, or need (“Tuition Discounting Findings,” 1997,p.7) By all measures, the discounting of tuition is a very common and growing practice, especially at private, non-profit, colleges and universities. Institutional student aid now represents the fastest growing portion of many institutional budgets (Loomis- Hubbell & Rush, 1992, p. 24). A 2000 survey administered by the National Association of College and University Business Officers (NACUBO) also confirms that tuition discounting is on the rise. In 1990, the average discount rate at small private colleges was 29.5%. This means that, on average, incoming freshmen were given institutional scholarships amounting to nearly 30% of the actual tuition rate. By 2000, that number had risen to 43% (Van Der Werf, 2002, p. A25). In 1990, private colleges awarded $3 billion in institutionally funded aid. Three years later that figure had risen to $5 billion (MacDowell, 1996, p. 24). Fewer than 10% of students at private colleges pay the stated tuition price. The other 90% receive some form of institutional grant or scholarship (“Tuition Discounting Findings,” 1997, p. 6). Tuition discounts make the “tuition sticker price, for most, more symbolic than substantive” (Johnstone, 1999, pp. 1-2). Confusion with Terminology There is a great deal of confusion about terminology relating to tuition discounting. Specifically, four terms are particularly problematic: the tuition discount itself, tuition “price” (or cost), financial aid, and tuition revenue. Tuition Discount First, there is confusion about the way tuition discounting is defined, and what kind of aid is used when calculating the tuition discount rate. In a recent monograph, Ronald Allen (1999) articulated an important problem relating to tuition discounting: “Confusion permeates tuition discounting in both internal and external arenas. One source of confusion is that college administrators and policy analysts have different views of the subject and tend to talk past each other when discussing it. Some administrators focus narrowly on tuition revenue not collected while other focus on the tuition the students do not pay. These amounts are usually different because of the role played by institutional and outside grants in the student aid process. Different groups within higher education use different definitions of tuition discounting for different purposes, adding to the confusion” (p. 8). This confusion can be avoided if administrators and researchers are clear about the definition of tuition discounting they are using. There are essentially three ways to measure tuition discounting: the simple tuition discount; the scholarship allowance; and the student tuition discount. The first tuition discount definition is the simple tuition discount which “consists solely of the waiver of all or a portion due. . . .It includes no funding from internal sources SUCh as gifts and endowment, or from external sources such as Federal Pell Grants or Federal Supplemental Educational Opportunity Grants” (Allen, 1999, p. 2). This definition only includes what is referred to as “unfunded” institutional aid—aid that is not really “funded” by any source, but simply represents an institution’s willingness to allow a student to pay less than full price. The simple tuition discounting rate would be calculated as the ratio of unfunded institutional aid to gross tuition and fee revenue (the total amount of revenue the college would have collected if every student paid full tuition from their own pockets). The second tuition discounting definition, the scholarship allowance, includes all institutionally funded aid, including unfunded institutional aid as well as funded institutional aid (funded by gifts and endowments). This definition is used in an annual survey administered by the National Association of College and University Business Oflicers, as well as most of the tuition discounting literature. Irnportantly, “[w]hen gift and endowment income that is restricted to financial aid is paid from the endowment fund to the operating find, the college is able to spend operating fund money that would otherwise be spent on financial aid on other things” (Allen, 1999, p. 3). The scholarship allowance is measured as the ratio of unfunded plus funded institutional aid to gross tuition revenue. Finally, the student tuition discount is the broadest measure of tuition discounting. It includes all tuition and fees that students do not have to pay out of their own pockets. It includes all institutional aid (as in the previous definition) as well as any federal, state 01' other aid (grants, loans, or work study) paid on the student’s behalf. The student tuition discount is calculated as the ratio of all aid the student receives from any source to gross tuition revenue. Tuition Price (Cost) The definition of “price” in higher education can also cause confusion. There are actually four prices used in higher education. First, there is a base price—the published tuition and fee price. Second is the sticker price—the base price plus “options” such as room, board, and fees. Students essentially choose the level of the extras they wish to purchase for instance a single dorm room or a triple, or 10 meals per week versus 21. The third price is the discount price, which is essentially the net price—net of institutional discounts. Finally, the cash price is the actual amount that the student has to pay out of his or her pocket after all financial aid, including federal, state, and institutional aid is deducted. Financial Aid Two general forms of financial aid must be distinguished in order to understand tuition discounting: institutional aid and external aid. Institutional aid, not to be confused with external (federal, state, private) aid, is actually a reduction for the student in the stated tuition price at an institution. External aid (from sources other than the institution) is a subsidy from the government to the student, and represents a payment to the institution on the student’s behalf (Loomis—Hubbell, 1992, p. 8). The following example illustrates the relationship between the tuition discount and other forms of financial aid. When a store has a sale, it gives a discount of the stated price. The store has agreed to forego a certain amount of revenue on the sale of that product. If the customer has a manufacturer’s coupon (an external discount) in addition to the sale price, he or she is using an external source to pay a portion of the discounted price. Tuition Revenue The definition of tuition revenue can also be a bit confusing. Gross tuition revenue is the total amount of revenue the college would have collected if every student paid full tuition from his or her own pocket. Net tuition revenue is the actual amount of revenue the college collects either from students directly or from individuals or organizations—such as the federal govemment—paying the on the student’s behalf. It is calculated as the difference between gross revenue and unfunded institutional aid. The Shift and Growth in Tuition Discounting The dramatic shift in tuition discounting and its growth can be explained by demographic, financial, and political forces that have influenced the private, baccalaureate sector of higher education. First, with regard to demographics, private colleges rely most heavily on the pool of traditional age students, and nationally, the traditional age cohort has declined in recent years. During the 1970's, the traditional age student pool actually grew from 25 million to 30 million. However, starting in 1980, the pool began to shrink, bottoming out at 23 million in the mid-1990's (Francis, 1991, p. 139). This decline in the applicant pool has created increased competition among institutions, and has had a substantial impact on enrollment. While the pool of non- traditional students increased significantly in the 1990’s, this change has mainly affected public higher education—not private institutions. Financial forces have also impacted private higher education. Institutional costs have risen significantly, which has led to increased tuition rates. Tuition increases have outpaced economic growth and the rate of inflation at both private and public institutions. Between 1983 and 2000, the higher education price index doubled. In other words, even after adjusting for inflation, college was twice as expensive in 2000 than it was in 1983 (Research Associates, 1998, p.4) During the 1950's, 1960's, and 1970's, national median income grew at a rate that equaled or exceeded tuition at private institutions. During the 198 0'5 and 1990’s, however, tuition growth exceeded income growth. According to a 1995 Study by the National Association of Independent Colleges and Universities (NAICU), the top three factors that contributed to tuition and fee growth were: technology updates (computers, networks, etc.); institutionally provided student aid; and faculty compensation increases (“A Commitment to Access,” 1997, p. 2). Kirshstein (1991 ) adds physical plant maintenance, administrative costs affected by increased regulatory requirements, and inflation as additional factors (pp. 67-68). A political factor also has affected these institutions—specifically the slow rate of growth in government-funded (federal and state) grants for students. When adjusted for inflation, federal student aid was 5% lower in 1992 than in 1980 (Loomis-Hubbell & Rush, 1 992, p. 24). In 1975 a federal Pell Grant covered, on average, 38% of tuition costs at 4 year institutions. By 2000, that percentage had dropped to 15% (Burd, 2001, p. A26). Not only has the growth in federal funding declined, the makeup of that aid has changed as well. Loans (as distinct from grants and scholarships) now make up the major portion of the federal aid budget. The level of student loan borrowing grew 40% in a one year Period of the early 1990's (Loomis-Hubbell & Rush, 1992). The fear of large indebtedness also adversely affects enrollment at higher-priced private institutions. Tuition Discounting Mechanics Why did tuition discounting emerge as a potential solution to the problems of lagging enrollment and financial difficulty? Why would institutions be compelled to spend more money in times of economic hardship? The answer to this question is couched in economic theory. Basic economic price theory portrays the “demand” for a particular product to be negatively related to price. In other words, at a higher price, fewer units of a product will be demanded than at a lower price. Figure 1 portrays the demand relationship for a normal good. Notice that at a high price, a relatively low quantity of the product is demanded (purchased). At a low price, the opposite is true; a higher quantity of the product is demanded. Similarly, price changes lead to considerably larger changes in quantities demanded. Figure 1. Elastic Demand Price P1\ Demand Q1 Q2 Quantity This relationship, however, does not always hold true. If a product has a special characteristic, demand may be “inelastic,” and the relationship between price and quantity lO may not be so pronounced. For instance, the demand for health care is considered to be inelastic because individuals are willing to purchase it at almost any price; whether $100 or $5000, the individual will, if able, “purchase” the life saving medical treatment. Figure 2 portrays the relationship between price and quantity demanded for a good considered to have inelastic demand. The curve illustrates that quantity demanded changes only a small amount with respect to price changes. Although no good is perfectly inelastic, it has been argued that demand for higher education at exclusive, highly competitive institutions, like Harvard or Princeton, is relatively inelastic because admission to these institutions is highly regarded, and there are few substitutes (Clotfelter, 1996, pp. 255-257). Figure 2. Inelastic Demand Price \ P 1 P2 \ Demand Quantity Q1 Q2 Most institutions of higher education face a normal price-demand relationship. Smaller, less prestigious institutions in which potential students feel there are many substitutes are good examples of this phenomenon. A recent survey by the Gallup Poll 11 (1995) indicates the following for three colleges of generally equivalent reputation, size, and offerings: Table 1. Tuition and Enrollment Demand, 3 similar colleges Price of tuition for 1 year % of respondents who would “consider that college” College A $22,000 17% College B $18,000 33% College C $14,000 50% Source: The Gallup Poll, 1995. These data demonstrate that for most individuals the demand for higher education is elastic—that is, their demand is responsive, or dependent, upon price. Graphically, we see a normal, downwardly sloping demand curve for this data set. When demand for a product exhibits normal behavior, as demonstrated by the numbers above, the product is considered to be a “normal” good. The pricing of normal goods is a difficult process. For many institutions of higher education, particularly small private colleges, the strategy is to find the optimal price levelxthe level that creates the greatest net revenue. Table 2 shows a standard pricing analysis for a hypothetical private college. Column 1 represents possible tuition rates. Column 2 presents corresponding anticipated enrollment at each of those tuition levels. Column 3, total revenue, is the product of the tuition rate and the anticipated enrolhnent. Colm 4 presents total fixed costs for the institution (which do not vary based on enrollment) and total variable costs (which increase as enrollment increases). Column 5 12 presents “after cost” revenue—the amount that remains from tuition revenue once the institution has met its costs. This money can be used to buy library books, improve lab etc. The strategy is to find the tuition level that maximizes after cost tuition revenue. I this example, the optimal tuition level is $16,000 because it produces after cost revenue of $9.2 million. Table 2. Pricing Strategies (Hypothetical Data) —| (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) Possible Corresponding Total Revenue “After Cost” Tuition Tuition Anticipated (Col 1 x Col 2) Total Costs“ Revenue Levels Enrollment (Col 3 - Col 4) $22,000 1,000 $22 million $20 million $2 million $20,000 1,400 $28 million $22 million $6 million $18,000 1,800 $32.4 million $24 million $8.4 million $16,000 2,200 $35.2 million $26 million $9.2 million $14,000 2,600 $36.4 million $28 million $8.4 million $12,000 3,000 $36 million $30 million $6 million 7 *Includes fixed costs (unrelated to the level of enrollment) + variable costs (increase as enrollment increases). Suppose, however, the 400 students who would enroll if tuition were $14,000 (I not $16,000) could be identified. If each of these students were offered a scholarship (discount) to make up the difference between $16,000 and each individual’s vvillingnes to pay, then he or she would enroll. Figure 3 is a graphical representation of this Situation. At a $16,000 tuition rate, a total of 2200 students would enroll. An addition. 400 students can be enticed to enroll only if offered lower tuition rates ranging from $14,000 to $15,999. The amount of discounting required to enroll 2600 students at $16,000 is the area of the triangle formed by BCD. Here, that amount is $400,000. In this scenario, the institution takes in gross tuition of $41 .2 million ($16,000 x 2600 students minus $400,000 in discounts). Its total costs are $28 million (the level of cost for enrollment of 2600 students). However, after cost tuition revenue is now $13.2 million, a much better scenario than any of those offered in Table 2. Simply put, these 400 additional students contribute more to total revenue than to total cost, even at a lower tuition rate. As long as “the ‘net revenue’ contributed...exceeds the marginal cost of enrolling them, it is to the financial advantage of colleges to provide discounts in the form of scholarships” (Bowen & Breneman, 1993, p.4). Because the students getting the discounts are filling otherwise empty spaces in classrooms and residence halls, the additional cost of enrolling them is minimal (“Fact File,” p. A28). This concept is defined by Glasser (1993) as “no-need” or “empty-seat” financial aid (p. 4). Figure 3. Graphical Portrayal of Tuition Discounting Tuition Price B $ 16,000 $14,000 C D 2200 2600 Enrollment Adapted from: Breneman, D. (1994). Liberal arts colleges: Thriving, surviving. or MgerLd? Washington, The Brookings Institution. It is easy to understand m private institutions engage in tuition discounting. If implemented properly, tuition discounting can be an effective tool in influencing an institution’s financial health, enrollment, and the make-up of its student body. But has tuition discounting really been an effective practice? This study attempts to address this and other important questions. Statement of Purpose/Research Questions The purpose of this study was to examine tuition discounting at private, baccalaureate-level institutions of higher education between 1990 and 2000. Specifically, three main questions were addressed: 1. What is the pattern of tuition discounting for these institutions? Has tuition discounting increased, decreased, or stayed the same? 2. Are there variations in tuition discounting based on institutional demographics? For example, does discounting vary geographically, or by institution size or age? 3. Does tuition discounting improve the financial health of institutions? In other words, what is the relationship between tuition discounting and the financial health of the institutions? Audience The research presented in this study is potentially useful to many different individuals, institutions, and organizations. First, financial aid administrators at private institutions need to be aware of the current state of tuition discounting, including the financial effects. As key players in the administration of tuition discounting programs, they need to understand how tuition discounting works, and how it affects other institutions. Similarly, presidents of private institutions need to be aware of the current state ( tuition discounting. Is tuition discounting working for most institutions? Do most institutions experience enrollment and net tuition growth as tuition discounting expands When does tuition discounting fail? The Board of Trustees will expect the President to know the answers to these important questions. In addition, business officers who are responsible for monitoring the financial status of institutions also have a need for this information. Business officers are keenly aware of the financial status of the institution, including the use of resources. National organizations such as the National Association for Student Financial Ai Administrators (NASF AA) and the National Association for College and University Business Officers (NACUBO) have been very supportive of research in the area of tuitic discounting. Their missions require them to research and disseminate information abou' emerging issues in higher education finance. Additionally, the donor community and investors are both interested in making sure their investments are being used wisely by the institution. If the practice proves effective, and can be attributed to grth and heall Within the private sector, then donors and creditors may wish to continue their support. it proves detrimental, donors and creditors may reconsider their support of institutions ii the private sector. For many reasons, tuition discounting has been a topic of much interest over the past decade. Virtually all conferences for financial aid administrators or business office host a session on tuition discounting. It is emerging as one of the main issues in the are] 16 of higher education finance, with a growing body of literature. A comprehensive review of this literature, provided in Chapter Two, presents what is known about tuition discounting, and what is yet to be learned. Chapter Three details the research design and methodology utilized to answer the research questions. Chapter Four provides data analysis, and conclusions are presented in Chapter Five. Chapter Two: Literature Review Description of the Literature Expectedly, as the practice of tuition discounting has increased over recent decades, so has the concomitant literature. Mentioned only sporadically in the literature of the 1960’s and 1970’s, the subject of tuition discounting grew to a steady and persistent dialogue by the 1980’s. The tuition discounting literature can generally be Classified into two categories. The first category includes literature that focuses on general aspects of tuition discounting including: (1)tuition discounting growth; (2)factors that have contributed to tuition discounting growth; and (3 )institutional participation in tuition discounting. The second category of literature focuses on the outcomes of tuition discounting including (1)the impact of tuition discounting on enrollment; (2)the use of mition discounting to address merit, need, and willingness to pay; and (3)the financial aspects of tuition discounting. I. General Aspects of Tuition Discounting Tuition Discounting Growth According to published research, tuition discounting grew substantially at independent (private) institutions in the 1990’s. Articles with titles such as “Tuition Discounting Continues to Grow” (Lapovsky & Loomis-Hubbell, 2003), and “Tuition Discounting May Rankle, but it Has Become Widespread” (Chronicle of Higher Education, 2000) are among many reports of the nationwide surge in tuition discounting over the past 10-15 years. The most nationally recognized tuition discounting study is the annual NACUBO (National Association of College and University Business Officers) Tuition Discounting Study. According to this multi-year study of 350 independent institutions, fewer and fewer students are paying the published tuition price. In 2000, only 21% of students paid the full tuition price—79% received some form of institutional discount, up from 66% in 1990. Also, the average tuition discount for incoming freshmen rose from 28% to about 38% between 1990 and 2000 (Lapovsky & Loomis-Hubbell, 2000, p. 27). Students are being charged, on average, only 62% of the sticker price. (Recall that this study uses the scholarship allowance definition of tuition discounting—so the discount includes funded and unfunded institutional aid). According to Winston and Zimmerman (2000), more than 60% of private institutions are discounting to more than 80% of their students (p. 10). It seems quite evident that tuition discounting is on the rise. But why? Mrs thgt Have Contributed to Tuition Discounting Growth Three factors are cited as major contributors to the rising levels of tuition discounting: increased competition among institutions for students, high tuition rates, and decreased federal student financial aid. The first factor is increased competition among institutions resulting from the declining pool of traditional college age students (Loomis- Hubbell & Rush, 1992, p. 4). Between 1978 and 1992, the number of 18 year olds in the US. dropped 25%. Although the number of 18 years olds started to rise again in 1994, the growth has been very slow, and the numbers are still significantly less than the 1970’s when the baby-boomers were college age (Day, 1997, p. 2). Additionally, more of today’s 18 year old students are from less wealthy families (MacDowell, 1996, p. 26). A second factor contributing to increased tuition discounting is the growth in tuition rates. Tuition rates, on average, have risen substantially over the past 20 years, especially at private institutions. From 1981 to 2001 , the average cost of tuition and fees at private, four-year colleges grew 122% in real terms (“Trends in College Pricing,” 2002). Between 1981 and 1991, average annual tuition and fees at private, four—year colleges grew 62%, whereas family income grew only 16%. From 1991-2001, private tuition rates grew 37% while family income grew only 8%. The growth rate in private tuition and fees was nearly 4 times the growth in income over that 20 year period (“Trends in College Pricing,” 2002). The percentage of median family income needed to pay private tuition costs started to rise sharply in 1981 when it increased to 21.7%, from a level of 16% that had held steady during much of the 1970’s (Halstead, 1989, p. 91). 19 In 1990, a study revealed that 82% of Americans felt tuition prices were rising out of control—to the point where a college education might be out of reach for their children (McDuff, 1989-90, p. 21). Additional studies, however, seem to indicate that the average individual perceives that college costs are higher than they actually are (Loomis-Hubbell & Rush, 1991; “Straight Talk,” 1998). A 1996 study revealed that individuals over- estimate the actual tuition price of higher education by about 30% (Loomis-Hubbell & Rush, 1991, p. 227). This over-estimation might have been fueled by a series of widely circulated publications that warned of the increased tuition rates. Even mainstream media, such as Newsweek, warned of “Those Scary College Costs” (April, 1996). In 1996, Congress commissioned an inquiry into increasing college costs (“Tuition Increasing Faster then Household Income and Public Colleges’ Cost”), which received wide media attention. In 1997, an independent advisory board was commissioned by the federal government to compile and extensive report about college affordability. The report, entitled “Straight Talk About Colleges Costs and Prices,” was published in 1998. A major finding of this report was that “rising college tuitions are real” (“Straight Talk,” 1998, p. 1). Whether there was an over-estimation on the part of families regarding college costs or not, families were becoming enlightened about the high and growing price of tuition— particularly at private colleges. Coupled with rising tuition rates, families have historically saved very little to finance their children’s educations. According to McDuff(1989-90), “only 50% of parents who are planning to send their children to college have actually begun to save. The average savings for these families is slightly over $500” (p. 20). A 1997 survey by 20 Sallie Mae indicates that the vast majority of families save less than 25% of the cost of higher education. Even though tuition prices have risen significantly, so have discounts. According to Doti (1998): “My research indicates that tuition and fees have not increased significantly over the past decade when we consider discounting and the use of the appropriate price index” (p. B1). Most students at private institutions pay a discounted price. However many potential students and families—especially those with lower incomes—have “sticker shock.” Being unaware of such things as discounts, these students are deterred from applying at all (Loomis-Hubbell & Rush, 1991, p. 26). Although some claim that tuition has risen because of “waste,” several substantial factors appear to explain increased tuition rates (St. John, 1994, p. iii). A 1997 survey of 425 independent institutions cited the following as the major reasons for tuition and fee growth (“Commitment,” 1997, pp. 1-2): 0 Technology (85% of respondents). Included in the category are academic computing equipment, administrative computing equipment, telecommunications upgrades, and wiring dormitories and libraries for intemet access. 0 Institutionally funded student aid (80% of respondents). Survey respondents indicated that they have to charge more in tuition since they have to discount to so many students. 0 Faculty salaries (79% of respondents). o Decreased federal student financial aid (66% of respondents) 0 Administrative salaries (62% of respondents) 0 Increased student recruitment expenditures (57% of respondents) 21 o Increases facilities maintenance (52% of respondents) Halstead (1989) offers the following as contributors of increased college tuition costs: 0 Growing input costs. Unlike a firm, however, a college cannot “step up production” to decrease per unit costs and counteract the increased input costs. 0 Educational quality. Colleges are not willing to sacrifice educational quality by having inadequate library or laboratory resources. 0 Competition for faculty. “Colleges are continually attempting to maintain and improve their faculty” (pp. 59-61). The higher education price index (HEPI)—a measure of inflation in the prices of the goods and services that colleges and universities purchase (such as salaries, benefits, services, supplies, equipment, library acquisitions, and utilities)—grew 131% between 1981 and 2000. In contrast, the Consumer Price Index (CPD—a measure of the inflation in the prices of goods and services that consumers buy—grew 89% over that time period. The largest areas of inflation for colleges and universities were library acquisitions and fringe benefits, which tripled between 1981 and 2000 (Research Associates, 1989, p. 27; Research Associates, 2001, p. 1). Many colleges and universities have tried to control costs to keep tuition increases low. These cost-cutting measures include: institution-wide budget cuts, increasing the efficiency of the physical plant, restructuring institutional debt, defening plant maintenance, and not filling open faculty positions (“Commitment,” 1997, p. 93). However, cutting costs is difficult because it can increase the faculty-student ratio, the 22 “personal relationship between students and instructors, which is essential to learning” (Halstead, 1991, p. 79). Decreased real values of federal financial aid for students also have increased the need for tuition discounting. The federal Pell Grant per recipient decreased 12.6% in real terms between 1987 and 1997. Other federal student grants fell 25.7% in real terms during that period (“Straight Talk,” 1998, p. 299). The federal Pell Grant now covers only about 10% of the cost of attending a private college (Kurz, 1995, p. 28). Private institutions now provide more grant aid to their students than does the federal government (Glasser, 1993, p. 2). Since 1980, there has been a shifting of the financial aid burden away fiom the government toward institutions. The reductions in federal student aid have been very costly to students who have consequently faced limitations in terms of access and choice. The reductions have also been costly for institutions who have had to increase institutional aid to offset the decrease in financial aid. Many institutions have sacrificed services and deferred maintenance in order to meet the increased demand for financial assistance (Green, 198 8, p. 58). While federal grants have declined, there has been significant growth in federal student loans. There also is a growing perception that federal grants should be “earned by students through national service, rather than as an entitlement that supports the societal good produced by participation in higher education” (Kurz, 1995, p. 27). 23 Institutional Participation in Tuition Discounting Only a few studies have analyzed tuition discounting based on institutional characteristics. According to Basch (1996), “. . .while discounting has been well documented overall, fewer efforts have been made to describe and explain tuition discounting differences. An understanding of such differences is important if one is to gain a full picture of how colleges differ in the average amount they collect from students” (p. 41). In general, the literature reveals five institutional characteristics as related to tuition discounting: selectivity, price, size, endowment level, and geography. Selectivity may influence the extent of tuition discounting in several ways. First, selectivity is likely to affect the types of students that apply. Typically, students from higher income families are more likely to apply at more selective institutions. Similarly, lower income students are more likely to attend less selective colleges and universities (Redd, 2000, p. 15): “Available evidence points to a positive correlation between a family’s wealth and the student’s academic qualifications. . .and unless more selective colleges make extraordinary offsetting recruiting efforts, they are apt to attract a less needy population” (Basch, 1996, p. 48). Prestigious institutions would not need to discount (at least for a financial need purposes) to the same extent as their less prestigious counterparts. Additionally, the declining number of 18 year clds is unlikely to affect applications to the most selective institutions. These institutions can easily achieve their desired class size by simply dipping deeper into their applicant pools (Basch, 1996, p. 48). For example, an institution that normally accepts 20% of its applicants can fill the freshman class by 24 raising that percentage to 30% . The less selective colleges, in contrast, will be most affected by the declining numbers of high schools graduates (Basch, 1996, p. 48). Increased competition among the less selective institutions drives up their discount rates. Finally, selectivity affects perception of value and willingness to pay. Selective institutions do not need to discount for competitive/enrollment reasons. They can fill their freshman classes without discounting at all. In 2000, Kenneth Redd used the NACUBO database to study tuition discounting based on institutional selectivity. The study covered the years 1990-1996. Redd grouped the institutions into 3 categories: 0 Highly selective. Only 30% of applicants are admitted. (7% of the institutions) 0 Selective. Up to 60% of applications are admitted. (18% of the institutions) 0 Less-than-selective. 60% or more applications are admitted. (75% of the institutions) Table 3 presents some of the results of Redd’s study. Although tuition discount rates increased for all selectivity types, the less-than-selective institutions had noticeably larger increases in institutional aid per student, and in the average award amount. From this study it is apparent that discounting is growing faster at less-than-selective institutions—in terms of tuition discount rates over time, award amounts, and the percentages of students awarded. Table 3. Tuition Discounting Rates, Redd’s Study, 2000 Selectivity Tuition Tuition % change in % change in Type Discounting Discounting institutional aid average award Rate, 1990 Rate, 1996 per student, amount, 1990- 1990-1996 1996 Highly 21% 24% 37% 17.5% 25 Selective Selective 22% 31% 47% 16.1% Less than 21% 31% 96% 31.7% Selective Another study that analyzed discounts based on selectivity (Basch, 1996) used the Peterson’s Freshman Financial Aid Database. Basch’s study utilized multi-variate regression analysis with the discount rate as the dependent variable, and admissions selectivity, endowment-per-student, tuition prices, and geographic region as independent variables. This study yielded results similar to Redd’s findings about selectivity. When compared to their less competitive counterparts, the most competitive institutions had lower discount rates, gave smaller institutional awards, and had fewer needy students (p. 54). Tuition price is another factor that may influence the amount of discounting among institutions. Higher nominal sticker prices are likely to attract a more wealthy applicant pool, thus reducing the necessity of discounting based on need. Higher prices may also be associated with better quality, which would influence the mix toward higher quality applicants who are generally less needy. In contrast, higher tuition prices lead to higher student financial need. For example a student with a $10,000 family contribution attending an institution with a $20,000 tuition price would have financial need of $10,000. That same student at a $30,000 institution would have a $20,000 need. “. . . [T]he amount of need, and presumably aid [will be higher at the higher price college. If self-help expectations [work-study and loans] and externally-funded grants are not sufficiently higher at the higher price college, it will tend to have a higher amount of college-funded grants” (Basch, 1996, p. 49). 26 Basch’s 1996 study found that “higher price is associated with a higher average college-funded grant, a higher discount rate, and a lower percentage of students judged needy” (p. 50). Even though these institutions attract wealthier students, the price is relatively high. This situation creates financial need for many students including those from families whose income is well the above national average. Meeting this need via discounting is likely to drive up discount rates at these higher priced institutions. The NACUBO study, as summarized by Lapovsky and Loomis-Hubbell (2000), categorizes institutions based on size (“small” means entering freshman class of less than 850) and by tuition cost (“low” means less than $18,000 per year). According to the NACUBO study, at small colleges with “low” tuition and fees the average incoming freshman discount grew from 28.5% to 40% between 1991 and 2000. At these colleges, the percentage of students receiving “some institutional aid” rose from 76% in 1991 to 90% in 2000. For small colleges with “high” tuition the average discount grew from 29.5% to 39% during that same time period. The percentage of students receiving institutional aid rose from 57% to 70%. For large colleges and universities, the average discount grew from 21% to 30%. The percentage of students receiving institutional aid remained steady at 61% between 1991 and 2000. It appears that at the smaller 9 institutions discounting has increased the most, particularly the small colleges with “low’ tuition (Lapovsky & Loomis-Hubbell, 2000). Another variable that could influence discounting is endowment size. In theory, institutions with high endowment-per-student ratios have more resources to provide discounts. In other words, these institutions could use their endowment earnings to provide tuition discounts (Mac Dowell, 1996, p. 25). It seems logical that the most well 27 endowed institutions would have higher tuition discounting rates (if using the scholarship allowance definition) because they could discount tuition with little effect on net tuition revenue. Basch’s 1996 study seems to confirm this hypothesis: “Apparently reflecting the higher resources available to a college for financial aid, higher endowment per student has a statistically significant positive effect on average college funded grants and on discount rates” (p. 50). Lapovsky and Loomis-Hubbell’s 2000 analysis of the NACUBO study, however, did not find a relationship between tuition discounting levels and endowment levels: “Relative institutional wealth or poverty does not sharply affect the level of financial aid. Institutional aid is an enrollment management tool. The granting of aid to a significant percentage of the class is a necessary tool to fill the class with the necessary number and quality of students” (Lapovsky & Loomis-Hubbell, 2000, p. 29). The “source” of the discount varies by the institution’s endowment level. Well-endowed institutions can use “restricted” dollars to replace some of the unrestricted dollars being used on discounts: The “. . .better endowed institution has more resources to spend on programmatic areas of the college and can compete longer and more deeply in the discounting/pricing game. Does this indicate a downward spiral that weakens the less well-endowed institution and continues to reduce competitiveness? Current levels of tuition discounting have persisted for much longer than many thought they could be sustained. It may mean that the very wealthy institutions tend to be among the most competitive to gain entrance and thus they are not truly in the same market 28 with many of the less well-endowed institutions” (Loomis-Hubbell, 2001, p. 30). Geographic location may also influence tuition discounting. Regional characteristics such as family income and wealth, the number of other colleges in the area, and the number of 18-year olds may influence tuition discounting rates among institutions. Very little research exists regarding tuition discounting variations by region. Wick’s 1997 study of no-need/merit awards indicates that institutions in the Midwest award 39% of the total no-need/merit awards being awarded nationwide, followed by the Mid-Atlantic region (24%), the South (17%), the West (10%), the Southwest (6%), and the Northeast (5%) (pp. 21-22). Although there are many reasons that institutions discount, the “. . .reasons for using tuition discounting vary by institution. Smaller, less-selective colleges use it as a tool to achieve enrollment goals. Highly selective colleges that can reach their enrollment goals with students whose families are in a position to pay full tuition (admittedly a very small number of institutions) use tuition discounts to enhance the quality and diversity of their student bodies” (Allen, 1999, p. 9). Recently, these smaller, less-selective institutions have been the focus of considerable dialogue and debate. Practitioners and researchers alike have described the private, less prestigious institutions as endangered, challenged, or threatened. These institutions have been affected by the general decrease in the numbers of high school graduates as well as competition from lower priced educational alternatives (McPherson & Schapiro, 1995, p. 19). It is evident that this private sector of higher education has faced adversity over the past fifty years. In 1950, private institutions made up 66% of all institutions, and 50% of college enrolhnent. By 29 1976, the percentages had fallen to 52% and 24% respectively (Breneman & F inn, 1978, p. 21-22). By the year 2005, enrollment at private institutions is estimated to be only 20% of total college enrollment (“Fact File,” 1995, p. 38). MacDowell (1996) predicts that “many [private] colleges which typically operate close to the margin, will go out of business; already 170 private institutions have closed their doors and more will follow” (p. 26). This sector of higher education is very important to society. It “is an integral and major component of our education system. Its diversity vastly expands the choices available. Its leadership demonstrates the nature of academic excellence, the ideal of liberal learning, the necessity of academic freedom and the challenge of innovative and experimental programs” (Halstead, 1989, p. 48). II. Outcomes Literature Tuition discounting is practiced with many outcomes in mind—helping needy students, increasing student quality, expanding diversity, increasing enrollment, and improving the financial state of the institution. Tuition discounting does not guarantee success. “For most administrators at four-year independent colleges and universities, achieving student enrollment goals through tuition discounting requires the skills of an expert juggler. On one hand, campus officials must balance enrollment targets with their need to increase net tuition revenue. Spend too much on discounting and you risk losing precious revenue. Spend too little, and you may not meet your enrollment 30 goals. On the other hand, administrators must decide continually whether to use discounting dollars to assist low-income families or to attract more academically gifted students” (Redd, 2001, p. 34). The Impact of Tuition Discounting on Enrollment According to Leslie & Brinkman (1987), there is a significant positive relationship between aid offered and enrollment. Institutional financial aid is an important factor in the numbers and the composition of the student body. Loomis- Hubbell & Rush (1992) agree: “Institutionally funded financial aid has supported the participation in higher education of many students, particularly minority students who may not otherwise have had access” (p. 4). An underlying assumption of the theory of tuition discounting is that students are sensitive and responsive to tuition prices. Numerous studies confirm that price, scholarship offers, and net price are all important factors in enrollment decisions (Seneca & Taussig, 1987; St. John, 1993; Litten, 1986). An extensive study by Somers and St. John (1995) assessed the impact of scholarship offers on enrollment decisions. Students perceive a scholarship as a reward, and an act of good faith on the part of the institution. The power of scholarship money is demonstrated in the Somers and St. John study. Applicants who were awarded scholarships were 23.5% more likely to attend for each $ 1 000 awarded. They found that students were responsive to scholarship offers; even partial scholarships may influence attendance. The Gallup Poll data presented in Table 1 provides a clear indication that demand for higher education is price sensitive. This poll indicates that a $4000 tuition discount (from $18,000 to $14,000) would have a 31 significant impact on most families’ college choice decisions. Sixty-one percent said this would increase their level of interest in the college. More than 80% believed it was a wise marketing move, and 93% viewed it as a positive action. Substantial research confirms that both gross and net price affect a student’s college choice. The size of the tuition discount is reflected in the net price. In a 1993 study it was determined that “students increasingly base their choice of a college or university on economic considerations...The survey found that 30% selected their institution on the basis of low tuition, up from 27.7% in 1991. Other factors were the financial assistance offered, cited by 28.3% of respondents, an increase from 27.8%” (Burd, year, p. 10). St. John (1993) shows that the tuition discount is the largest factor in a student’s college choice. Cost has “eclipsed location, academic reputation, and social life as the #1 factor in choosing a college” (NY Times Higher Education Supplement, 1 996, p. 7). A 1997 study of 3500 high school seniors indicated that cost (particularly not cost) is now more significant to students than location, academic reputation, or social life (Marcus, 1997). Another important study found that at mid-selective private colleges, the percentage change in enrollment dropped .6% for every $100 increase in tuition price (Brinkman & Leslie, 1987, p. 199). The effect of price and tuition discounting on retention and graduation only recently has received attention. The short-term goal of filling a freshman class may outweigh the long-term goals of retention and graduation. Redd’s 2000 study is the only one to study the effects of tuition discounting on these outcomes. Redd’s study indicates that “dramatic discounting may negatively impact graduation rates” (p. 1) 32 Need, Merit, and Willingness According to Baum (1998), the historical role of tuition discounting has been to expand educational opportunities for financially needy students (p. 12). Much of the literature acknowledges that discounts based on need allows lower income students to enroll at institutions in which they could not otherwise afford. Loomis-Hubbell & Rush (1991) state that tuition discounts have made private higher education a possibility for lower and middle class students who would not have been able to attend otherwise (p. 25). Similarly, according to Doti (1998), “the use of discounting has made independent higher education more affordable for lower-income students” (p. B7). A 2000 study by Redd analyzed the attendance of Pell Grant recipients at institutions that discount. Pell grant recipients are the students with the greatest financial need. The percentage of students receiving Pell Grants “grew by 20 percent at institutions with the largest increases in discounting rates, and by 16 percent at college and universities with the smallest increases in discounting. These results suggest that tuition discounting was. . .successful at helping institutions achieve their goals of providing access to higher education for low income students...” (p. 3). Tuition discounts, when based on need, represent a transfer of wealth from higher- income to lower-income students (Loomis-Hubbell & Rush, 1991, p. 28. According to Winston, “a tuition policy that makes wealthier families pay more and less wealthy families pay less for the same education is what’s fashionably called ‘Robin-Hooding’— uSing tuitions to steal from the rich and give to the poor” (1988, p. B1). But charging dlfferent customers different prices based on certain personal characteristics (such as age, 33 ~ or timing of the purchase) is not uncommon. As detailed in Chapter One, airlines, phone companies, and movie theaters all engage in this practice. Usually their purpose is to maximize profit. In contrast, “colleges charge different prices to ensure that able students can have access to an excellent education, regardless of their families’ incomes” (Winston, 1998, p. B1). In question here is the concept of income redistribution— “colleges participate in price discrimination for the social objective of making the best education available to the best students” (Winston, 1988, p. B1). Winston also points out that unlike Robin Hood, the colleges and universities are not ‘stealing’ from the wealthier families—those families are expressing their demand (willingness and ability) to pay for the education at the full price. Indeed, “part of what those students who pay full tuition are getting when they choose to buy a high-quality private education is association with other excellent students, as well as a breadth and diversity of classmates. Both the quality of the students and their diversity would be lower if all students had to pay the same price. And quality and diversity are part of the appeal of these institutions, part of what makes them educationally excellent and desirable” (Winston, 1988, p. B 1). In short, making education accessible, regardless of ability to pay, should be part of an institution’s mission. Jenkins (1991) wonders whether income redistribution in higher education should be the responsibility of all of society, rather than just the middle and higher income families that are already paying for college. She predicts that “as middle- and upper-middle income families become more sophisticated in their assessment of educational value (price/outcome), they will be less 34 willing to subsidize lower income students at higher priced private institutions. There already exists much evidence that many middle-inco families are selecting high quality public institutions rather that their mc expensive private counterparts. While access and choice in higher education are important societal goals, the economics of the marketplacc are such that, over the long term, they can only be achieved if institution costs moderate so that federal financial aid programs can bear the major of cost subsidy” (p. 7). Winston and Zimmerman (2000) voice concern over the future of need-based institutional aid, arguing that it “faces an uncertain future, as, more generally, does all college pricing that serves, idealistically, to redistribute income. It won’t matter, at the tOp, where students stipends will be paid all around, but it may seriously reduce low income students’ access everywhere else” (p. 12). Breneman (1996) argues that with respect to awarding institutional aid based on need... “[e]quity is only the occasional— and incidental—result” (p. 16). Delbanco (1996) predicts that the concept of funding based on need is “ancient history” (p. 39). The future of need-based discounts appears rather tenuous. Much has been Written about the trend of discounting based on merit rather than discounting based on need. According to Baum (1998) fewer and fewer colleges are focusing on access for 1 income students when awarding institutional aid, and the percentage of merit based aid gowing relative to institutional aid based on financial need (p. 12). A 1999 study by Mulugetta analyzed the growth in institutional need based aid versus growth in institutional merit based aid. The results of this study indicate that the growth in merit 35 based aid offers was three times the growth in need based aid offers over a 6 year period in the 1990’s (p. 11). In 1997, Wick synthesized a series of studies that analyzed the growth in non-need-based institutional aid. The studies included a 1974 study by Robert Huff, then Director of Financial Aid at Stanford, a 1978 study by the College Board, 1976 and 1984 studies by the American Council on Education (ACE), a 1983 study by the National Association of College Admissions Counselors (NACAC), and more recent studies by the College Scholarship Service and the National Association of Student Financial Aid Administrators (NASFAA). The scope of Wick’s project was to “determine if there has been a significant increase in institutional gift aid being targeted towards awards not based on need” (p. 28). He concluded that there definitely has been a shift toward non-need based aid that has come at the expense of need-based student aid (p . 28). Discounting based on merit more than need has traditionally been more prominent at less prestigious institutions. However, the increasing use of merit aid is now becoming apparent even among more prestigious institutions (McPherson & Schapiro, 1995, p. 27). The trend away from need based discounts to discounts based on student quality ( SAT scores or high school grade point average) is “part of an ambitious strategy to create a virtuous circle, providing irresistible bargains to high achievers in the expectation that they will, in turn, attract better students and faculty” (Passell, 1997, p. B10). Many institutions are using no-need scholarships as a mechanism to upgrade student quality, academic reputation, and status (Sidar, 1976, p. 5). 36 In addition, what seems to be emerging is the use of tuition discounting as a marketing device or bargaining tool (Baum, 1998). As Lapovsky and Loomis-Hubbe (2001) found: “more and more institutions are creatively packaging financial aid based on St marketing devices as familial perceived need, special institutional programs (: as service scholars or economics scholars) or well defined cohorts. . .. These structures deviating in part or in whole from any measurement of need, reach to families unwilling to pay for education without getting some kind of ‘deal’ the competitive battleground among institutions for the top student scholars contribute to the pressures on the tuition discount at most independent 4-year colleges and universities” (p. 31). At some institutions, econometric models are utilized to estimate “willingnes: pay”——based on characteristics such as anticipated major, whether the student partici] in a campus visits, or race—rather than “ability to pay.” Many colleges are even hiri consulting firms to help them understand how to use demographics, credit records, ar other “predictive modeling techniques” to estimate willingness to pay (Gose, 1999, p A49). In many cases, any indication of eagerness is taken as an indication of willing] to pay (Delbanco, 1996, p. 39). The measurement of the responsiveness of consumer price changes is called price elasticity of demand. Whereas historically institutions h tried to “determine which students [had] elastic demand and [would] be unable to em because of limited financial resources. . .under the new enrollment management strata institutions attempt to identify applicants whose demand is elastic because they are 37 unwilling to pay a higher price, even though the resources might be available” (Baum, 1998,p.14) At many institutions, administrators realize that they may underestimate willingness to pay. This realization has lead to an unprecedented willingness on the part of institutions to reconsider financial aid awards—“bargaining” or “negotiating.” Colleges report a barrage of phone calls, after award letters are sent, from parents hoping to negotiate a better “deal.” According to Michael Wisniewski, Director of Financial Ai at Chestnut Hill College in Pennsylvania, “we will match an offer from any other college (Asinof, 1997, p. C1). He admits, however, that bargaining is unfair to those who aren’t aware that their award is negotiable. A highly controversial, yet potentially more fair approach, is ascertaining a family’s willingness to pay. In 1999, a website (wwwecollegebidcom) was developed that allows families to do just that: “offer to pay given amount to attend college, then sit back and see whether any colleges are willing to accept that bid’ (Gose, 1999, p. A49). According to the ecollegebid website, it serves as ‘ ‘brokerage agent between colleges and students. . .that [matches] (1) the family’s ability or willingness to pay for a college education with (2) the college’s willingness to offer tuition discounts.” The institutions pay $2,000 annually to participate in ecollegebid. The list of participating institutions, however, is not made public. Is it appropriate for colleges to be haggling over price, like used car dealers? According to Gaudiani (2000), “. . .colleges and universities are not car dealers. As our Iloll-profit status attests, we have a higher social purpose. Certainly we can learn from t1 f0r—profit sector about efficient management of resources. But if we focus too closely or 38 the bottom line we lose sight of our reason for existence: to educate productive, compassionate, effective citizens, who will make society a better place” (p. 19). Rewarding merit, or simply “unwillingness” to pay, rather than need has concerned many scholars. Generally, the argument is that it “give[s] financial aic students who would have gone to college anyway, and [takes] those dollars from students who might not be able to attend” (p. 127). Mulugetta’s 1999 study offer following conclusion: “recycled tuition revenue—in the form of merit aid——may . tremendous benefit to a handful of winners,” although the end result is societal in (pp. 11-12). Baum and Schwartz point out that “to the extent that any new merit programs replace need-based programs, there may well be a decline in enrollmen that implied by demographic trends. Merit aid will have little effect on whether meritorious students enroll, but declining need-based aid will increase the price 0 to college for those with the highest demand elasticity—those from low-income i (p - 133). Institutions that have focused on need rather than merit “. . .fear that the attention to the strategic use of financial aid will negate years of working toward equitable distribution of need based aid...” (Baum, 1998, p. 12). Baum (1998) wonders if this “strategic” use of financial aid can be “com; With the goals of equity in higher education, or must we choose between abandor goals of diversity and educational opportunity and risking institutional solvency” Gaudiani (2000) points out that institutions must make difficult decision about w Students to award. They could award $3 0,000 per year (the entire cost of attenda One highly qualified yet needy applicant. Or, for the same total dollar amount, th a"Var-d $5000 per year each to six students with no financial need. These six stud 39 would still contribute $25,000 per year for four years, whereas the one needy student contributes no revenue for four years. Many institutions will make the choice to maximize net tuition revenue—that is, to assist the six no-need students rather than the one needy student. Therefore, claims Gaudiani (2000), “[i]t is not difficult to see why strategic use of financial aid might conflict with the goals of equity and access in highe education” (p. 14). Financial Aspects of Tuition Discounting The potential positive effects of tuition discounting are quite clear. First, tuitio: discounting, at least to some degree, encourages the participation of lower income students as well as minority students at private institutions of higher education. Additionally, discounting can serve to “safeguard the flow of net tuition revenues to th institution” (McPherson & Schapiro, 1995, p. 18). However, as articulated by Loomis- Hubbell and Rush in a 1991 article, tuition discounting can be a “double edged sword.’ In addition to its many positive aspects, there are less desirable results including possil: losses in net tuition revenue (if institutions maximize gross tuition revenue rather than tuition revenue) and excessive increases in gross tuition rates (sticker prices) (p. 25). As early as the 1960's, researchers were expressing concems about the potentiai negative side-effects of tuition discounting. A 1960 study of 60 private colleges report the following “alarming phenomenon:” one of the colleges in the study was diverting 3 Percent of its tuition income to student aid (McPherson & Schapiro, 1998, p. 25). The high levels of tuition discounting continues to be a source of concern. According to David Breneman (1994): 40 “the sharp increase in student aid provided by the institution itself, I referred to as unfunded student aid, or as institutionally provided stl aid, is among the most troubling economic problems confronting lil arts colleges. It is not unusual to find a college currently devoting 2 more of its budget to unfunded student aid, at the same time that on on instruction constitute no more than 40% of the budget. One can understand why Presidents worry when, for every dollar spent on instruction, 50 cents goes for student aid” (p. 36). Nathan Dickme) (1993) added that there persists a “gnawing fear that something is v with uncontrolled growth of the financial aid ratio” (p. 26). Loren Loomis-Hubbell (1995) argued that “as tuition discounting grows, t fundamental strength and reliability of institutions’ main revenue st erode” (p. 31). There is some evidence that tuition is beginning to erode the financial heal‘ some institutions. According to researchers at the University of Pennsylvania’s In for Research on Higher Education, many institutions that are discounting heavily V experience down-graded debt ratings, and consequently will have a more difficult borrowing funds (“Discounting and Its Discontents,” 1994, p. 34). There are concerns that tuition discounting can actually be dangerous if institutions administer it improperly. Improper use of financial aid most often is a of institutions failing to understand the important inter-relationship between publi: price, enrolhnent, and discounts. 41 The first piece of this inter-relationship is price. Institutions must choose a “published” price—even if very few students are actually required to pay the firll price. Generally, the college has to set a price that generates at least enough revenue to cover expenses (Hoke, 1993, p. 6), and to “guarantee educational quality” (Shaman & Zemsky, 1984,p.17) Some institutions utilize what is referred to as a “prestige/quality” pricing policy. Under this approach, institutions will often raise their tuition prices to improve image or reputation. In higher education, particularly private higher education, price is generally regarded as an indicator of quality. A similar pricing policy, “peer” pricing, is an approach in which an institution sets its tuition price and tuition increases in a manner that “keeps it comparable with. . .prices at peer institutions” (Shaman & Zemsky, 984, p. 14). These policies, however, are not strategic and fail to recognize the important inter- relations between price, enrollment, and discounts. Strategic pricing requires a keen understanding of the inner workings of price, gross tuition revenue, and net tuition revenue. Recall that gross tuition represents the amount of tuition revenue that an institution would receive if every student paid the full published price out of his or her own pocket. Net tuition revenue is the gross tuition revenue minus institutionally funded aid. Many institutions raise price in order to raise gross tuition revenue, even though net tuition revenue is more important (Cohen, 1982). It is entirely possible for gross tuition revenue to increase while net tuition revenue declines. For example, an institution that raises gross tuition rates 6 percent but “discounts away” more than the 6 percent increase could face a substantial decrease in net tuition revenue (Loomis-Hubbell, 1992, p. 17). In other words, if colleges increase their 42 financial aid budgets faster than their tuition rates, their average price per student actually falls (“Discounting and Its Discontents,” 1994, p. 33). With this important inter-relationship in mind, some colleges have adopted a “high-tuition, high-aid” strategy. In 1987, Eamon Kelly, President of Tulane University, admitted that “[w]e put our tuition as high as possible then put most of the extra money into financial aid” (Fiske, 1987, p. Bl 3). Others have adopted more of a “low-tuition, low-aid” strategy. Muskingum College cut its tuition rate with much fanfare in 1995, and also lowered its discount rate. This approach seems to have worked well for Muskingum: enrollment increased 31% over 5 years, and both gross and net tuition grew substantially (Irving, 2001, p. 3). Bowen and Breneman (1993) distinguish between the use of institutional aid as a “price discount” and as an “educational investment.” They argue that institutional aid offered by prestigious schools usually represents an educational investment on the part of the institution. Institutions such as Harvard and Yale could enroll more than enough students without offering any institutional aid at all. It is likely that they could double or triple their tuition rates and still enroll all the students they could want. Yet these schools do offer institutional scholarships. Why? According to Bowen and Breneman (1993): “For MIT and similarly situated institutions, student aid enables the college to attract qualified students who could not come otherwise, including students who will contribute to the diversity of the student population and, ultimately, to the needs of the nation for more well educated students from racial minorities and disadvantaged backgrounds. Decisions to spend some of the college’s own resources in this way are analogous to decisions to increase spending on the 43 library, on faculty positions, on scientific equipment, or on any number of other worthwhile activities” (p. 5). At the other end of the spectrum, however, some colleges cannot get enough filll pay students to fill an entering class. Many students are willing to attend only if they get a tuition discount; they are not willing to pay full price. Institutional aid, in this sense, is functioning as a price discount, not an educational investment. Bowen and Breneman recommend that institutional leaders answer the following question to help determine if institutional aid is an investment or a discount: “Does providing student aid increase or decrease the net resources available to the college to spend on other purposes?” (Bowen & Breneman, 1993, p. 5). When institutional aid is being used as a means to create a large enough entering class, it is functioning as a price discount, and technically, creating net resources for the college. (Recall from the example using the data in Table 2 that the implementation of tuition discounting actually increases resources for the institution.) When aid is functioning as an educational investment, the college could have enrolled enough students without offering any institutional aid, and the aid represents a decision to use institutional funds instead of some other use of that money. It is important that institutions have a clear understanding about being “discount” schools or “investment” schools. This assessment may require some honest reflection on the part of administrators, many of whom might be reluctant to admit that their aid policy is a discount as opposed to an investment. If an institution mis-categorizes its use of aid, the consequences could be ruinous (Jenny, 1997). For example, institutions that use aid as an investment should set a predetermined spending cap on the amount of resources 44 devoted to student scholarships. These institutions are assured of a full entering freshmen class and a definite total tuition revenue amount. Based on these figures, an institution should set aside a certain dollar amount of expected tuition revenue for scholarships. However, if an institution that uses aid as a discount set a self-imposed cap (as if it were an investment school) it may end up with an inappropriate amount of tuition discounting. In other words, this institutionally imposed level may produce a small level of net tuition revenue, whereas some other level of awarding may result in a much better financial picture for the institution. If an institution is not careful about analyzing its position on the continuum of discount to investment it may create a weak financial situation. The following table is useful to assess an institution’s institutional student aid: Table 4. Institutional Aid Policy Tuition Discount Educational Investment Freshman Class Would not be full without offering Would be full even if aid aid not offered Demand for product Elastic (sensitive to price) Inelastic (Less sensitive to price) During economic Increases Decreases downturns the use of institutional aid Resources Creates Economic Resources Uses up Economic Resources Purpose Generally: to promote ethnic Diversity, Financial Need diversity, increase enrollment, improve financial health, enroll more students with need, encourage retention, and enhance prestige How it should be treated As a deduction from gross tuition As an expenditure like on balance sheet revenue other types of spending with which it competes for resources Whether discounting should be treated as a “deduction from revenue” or as an “expense” is no longer in question. In 1997, new accounting practices were developed by 45 the Financial Accounting Standards Board (F ASB 116 and 117) that mandated institutions treat discounts as a deduction from revenue—not an expense, like expenditures on salaries, library books, or electricity (Allen, 2001, p. 56). Prior to the implementation of these new accounting practices, institutions included “[r]evenue that never existed [tuition funded by institutional grants]. . .in gross tuition while the bottom line was kept honest by reporting the same dollars as a financial aid expense, a procedure that accountants call ‘grossing up the accounts.’ Thus, higher education executives were led to believe that their institutions were generating much more revenue than was the case” (Allen, 2001, p. 56). The new accounting standards require institutions to deduct institutional aid when reporting tuition and fee revenue. The “old” rules instructed institutions to: “report all tuition and fees. . .assessed against students for educational purposes. Include tuition and fee remissions or exemptions even though there is no intention of collecting from the student” (IPEDS Finance Survey, 1994). The “new” rules instruct institutions to report tuition and educational fees “net of any allowances,” where allowances are defined as: “the difference between the stated charge for goods and services provided by the institution and the amount which is billed to students and/or third parties making payments on behalf of students” (IPEDS Finance Survey, 1999). Some researchers argue that institutions have gone too far in awarding institutional aid. According to Jenny (1997) “once an institution discounts its prices to more than 50% of its students, a trend toward a point of no return is set in motion. At 75% or more, the self-defeating process is now well underway” (p. 5). A process that may have worked at one time may backfire if carried to the extreme. 46 The airline industry is widely known for carrying a discounting pricing strategy to an extreme in an attempt to “milk its demand curve” (Riggs, 1994, p. 43). However, it is also known for the massive loss it faced in the 1980's. Riggs argues that the dysfunctional pricing is probably the main reason for the financial troubles facing the airline industry (p. 41). Actually, in many ways airlines and higher education are similar. Both are fixed-cost based so additional customers (passengers or students) add very little to operating costs, particularly if a plane or a classroom has empty seats. Both scenarios portray lost revenue and invite the concept of strategic pricing. Riggs (1994) warns that: “If competition requires all colleges to ‘buy’ their best students with merit scholarships, that is, if academically able students, even those financially quite able to pay, come to expect discounted tuition—private higher education is headed down the road defined by the airlines: price inequities among its ‘customers,’ and increased cynicism” (p. 43). Another concern about tuition discounting focuses on finance. Jenkins (1991) warns of the cyclical effect of tuition discounting. She argues that tuition discounting can tend to spiral—where increases in discounts lead to the necessity for tuition increases, which leads to further discounting. Tuition discounting needs to be carefully monitored by an institution’s administrators so as to not spiral out of control (p.6). For some institutions, tuition discounting decreases the amount of funds available for student services and other needs (Loomis-Hubbell & Rush, 1992). A 1995 NAICU study of independent colleges and universities indicates that in response to financial shortfalls 45% cut their budgets, 37% eliminated administrative positions, and 35% left faculty positions unfilled (“A Commitment to Affordability,” 1997, p.3). Yet virtually all of these institutions increased institutionally funded student aid during the same period. It 47 appears that “institutions have been forced to put increasing amounts of their unrestricted funds into student aid instead of academic programs” (Dunn, 1993, p. 9). It also seems that an increased portion of cost “is not for instruction, but for everything else” (Werth, 1988, p. 25). At many colleges and universities, spending on institutional aid exceeds spending on the entire educational program (O’Keefe, 1987, p. 7). The current body of literature on tuition discounting provides a fairly clear idea about the history of tuition discounting, the growth in the levels of discounting, reasons for this growth, and where the growth has mainly taking place. There is also research regarding the outcomes of discounting. It is easy to understand why institutions have resorted to tuition discounting. However many questions still remain. Chapter Three: Design and Methodology Research Questions The purpose of this study was to examine tuition discounting at private, baccalaureate-level institutions of higher education between 1990 and 2000. Specifically, three main questions were addressed: 1. What is the pattern of tuition discounting for these institutions? Has tuition discounting increased, decreased, or stayed the same? 2. Are there variations in tuition discounting based on institutional demographics? For example, does discounting vary geographically, or by institution size or age? 48 3. Does tuition discounting improve the financial health of institutions? In other words, what is the relationship between tuition discounting and the financial health of the institutions? Data Sources The study included data from three sources: (1) the Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS); (2) the Peterson’s Guide to 4-year Colleges; and (3) the US. News and World Report college rankings report. mgriued Postsecondary Education Data Analysis Each year, institutions of higher education in the United States are required to complete a federal survey called the Integrated Postsecondary Data Analysis System (IPEDS) survey. Completion of the form is mandatory for institutions that participate in any of the federal financial assistance programs authorized by Title IV of the Higher Education Act of 1965 (Pell grants, Federal Student Loans, etc). Each year, over 12,000 postsecondary institutions complete the survey. The survey is quite comprehensive and contains eight survey components: institutional characteristics and activity; completions; occupationally specific enrollment; finance; staff; libraries; fall enrollment by race, age, and residence; and faculty salaries. IPEDS represents the single most comprehensive source of postsecondary educational data in the United States, and is referred to as the “cornerstone of national postsecondary education data” (Peng & Korb, 1989, p. 76). Much of the data for this study came from the finance component of the IPEDS survey, which provides detail about all aspects of an institution’s financial situation. Institutions 49 typically use their annual general purpose financial statements to complete the IPEDS survey. An institution’s financial statements are considered highly reliable. The law requires an annual audit by an independent accounting firm for consistency and accuracy. Recently, the IPEDS data has been made conveniently accessible to researchers via the Internet. Starting in 1997, the finance portion of the IPEDS form was significantly changed for private institutions. This change was primarily because of tuition discounting. The “new” form (1997-present) treats institutional financial aid as contra-revenue—that is, a deduction from tuition and fee revenue, not as an expense. The IPEDS instructions indicate that institutions should not include “allowances” when reporting tuition and fees, where an allowance is defined as “the difference between the stated charge for goods and services provided by the institution and the amount which is billed to students and/or third parties making payments on behalf of students.” (This definition would include funded and unfunded institutional aid). Thus, “tuition and fees” on the new IPEDS form really means net tuition and fees. To obtain gross tuition and fees (the amount of tuition and fees the institution would receive if every student paid the full tuition price out of his or her own pocket), allowances must be added to the tuition and fees figure. On the “old” IPEDS form, “tuition and fees” would reflect gross tuition and fees and the “allowances” would appear as expenses against that revenue. This change in the IPEDS form came about after considerable debate in the early 1990’s regarding the reporting of institutional aid. According to Allen (1999), the focus on gross tuition revenue rather than net tuition revenue was misleading to the users of institutional financial statements—both within and outside the institution. Institutional 50 leaders were focused on gross tuition revenue rather than the more important figure of net tuition revenue. Gross tuition revenue ove‘rstates the flow of income to the institution (p. 13). Peterson’s Guide to F our-Year Colleges The Peterson’s Guide to Four Year Colleges, published annually since 1970, provides detailed data about an institution’s students, faculty, facilities, and programs. The information contained in the Peterson’s Guide is furnished annually by the colleges to the publisher of the Guide, Thompson Learning. US. News and World Report: America’s Best Colleges The third data source was the special college rankings issue of US. News and World Report, which is published annually. Essentially, the quality of each institution is analyzed based on indicators purportedly measuring institutional quality. The editors of this publication recognize that “the college experience consists of a host of intangibles that cannot be reduced to more numbers. But [they] believe that it is possible to objectively compare schools on one key attribute: academic excellence” (Morse & Flanagan, 2001, p. 28). Selection of Institutions In 1970, researchers at the Carnegie Foundation for the Advancement of Teaching developed a classification system for American institutions of higher education. The system is intended to group or cluster institutions based on characteristics. Although 51 some modifications have been made to the classification system since its inception, the general principle has not changed; it is a system designed to group institutions (generally by the highest degree they offer), but not to rank institutions. The classification includes Research Universities I and II, Doctoral Universities I and 11, Masters Colleges I and II, Baccalaureate Colleges 1 and H, and Associate of Arts Colleges (Boyer, 1994, p. 1). The group of institutions analyzed in this study were those private, non-profit institutions classified by the Carnegie Foundation classification system as Baccalaureate (Liberal Arts) I or II. The Baccalaureate I (BAI) category includes institutions that focus on undergraduate liberal arts education and award 40% or more of their degrees in liberal arts. They tend to be more restrictive in admissions. The Baccalaureate H (BAH) category includes institutions that also focus on undergraduate education, but award less than 40% of their degrees in liberal arts. They are less restrictive in admissions than the BAI institutions (Carnegie Foundation for the Advancement of Teaching, 1994). I selected this population for study for two reasons: their importance in the American system of higher education, and the vulnerability of these institutions to economic and demographic fluctuations. Baccalaureate institutions contribute to maintaining diversity and variety in American higher education. The US. system of higher education is special because of this variety (MacKay, 1992). The small private colleges provide an educational environment unlike any other type of American college. As Breneman (1994) states, “. . .one can almost View these colleges as standard bearers, holding out the promise and the reality of education for education’s sake. Without them, American higher education would lose far more than simply places for 260,000 undergraduates, a 52 miniscule 2 percent of total enrollments. Ten new universities could absorb that population, but at the cost of a great loss of diversity in our educational system” (p. 3). These institutions are unique in their single mission: to provide excellent undergraduate education. Unlike larger institutions, the baccalaureate institutions do not place emphasis on research, public service or graduate education. They exist for the sole purpose of educating undergraduate students (Breneman, 1994, p. 94). A study by Alexander Astin (1977), showed that these institutions excel at providing opportunities for students to grow intellectually and socially. Students at private institutions tend to interact more with faculty, tend to be more active on campus, and tend to participate more in classes. These students also report a great deal of satisfaction with their overall campus experience (Astin, 1977, p. 230). Although these institutions play an important role in American higher education, they are also among the most vulnerable to economic fluctuations (including inflation), competition for students, and demographic changes. John Nelson, a Senior Vice President for Moody’s, argues that small institutions (generally, institutions with less than $20 million in annual revenue) are the most at-risk (Townsley, 2002, p. 25). In sum, the combination of importance and vulnerability makes this population the ideal focus of a study of tuition discounting. I selected institutions for this study if their response to the IPEDS survey question “institutional control” was “private, non-profit” and if their Carnegie classification was 31 (Baccalaureate I) or 32 (Baccalaureate II) (www.nces.ed.gov/ipeds). This selection produced a population of 503 institutions, including 157 Baccalaureate I and 346 Baccalaureate H institutions. I analyzed the BAI and BAH institutions separately because 53 of their differences with respect to prestige and admissions restrictiveness, as detailed previously. Unfortunately, many institutions made errors in completing the revised version of the IPEDS form in 1997 and beyond. The new method of reporting institutional aid as an allowance instead of an expense created a great deal of confirsion among business officers. Institutions that reported $0 allowances clearly misunderstood the new reporting system. (A $0 allowance means the institution awarded no funded or unfunded institutional aid.) I excluded institutions that reported a $0 allowance in 1997 from the analysis, resulting in a useable sample of 120 BAI’s and 167 BAII’s. I performed a series of statistical tests (T-tests and Analysis of Variance) on several key variables to ensure that the resulting samples were statistically representative of their populations. As seen in Table 5, the sample means for most of the variables were not significantly different from the corresponding population means for these key variables. For the BAI institutions, there does not appear to be any significant differences between the sample and the population. For the BAH institutions, six of the nine variables show no differences between the sample and the population. Respondents in the sample do appear to be slightly more selective, with higher reputations, and fewer minority students than the population at large. Table 5. Population vs. Sample BAI BAII T-Tests Population Sample Sig. Population Sample Sig. Mean Mean Mean Mean . Average 1465 1561 0.115 1299 1367 0.319 Enrollment . Percent Minority 0.0827 0.0842 0.1111 0.192 0.11 .001 54 Age 140 141 0.73 102 104 0.622 I Academic 3.5924 3.63 0.482 2.78 2.87 0.004 Reputation Score . Faculty-Student 13.8086 13.75 0.83 23.28 22.79 0.578 Ratio # Retention 84.81 85.83 0.443 70.76 71.68 0.236 Average Total Ed 33883028 3600000 0.206 14056062 15000000 0.108 and General Expenditures I Average 3669965 3847511 0.82 487115 486524 0.998 Endowment Analysis of F-Score Significance F-Score Significance Variance # Religious 2.164 0.143 0.14 0.708 Affiliation Gender Affiliation 0.053 0.819 0.891 0.346 Admissions 3.167 0.077 34.58 .001 Competitiveness Rating Locale 3.056 0.083 0.288 0.592 I downloaded the institutional-level data from the online IPEDS database into Excel. 1 calculated the study variables from the raw data (see next section). The tuition discounting rates, (calculated as the ratio of unflmded institutional aid to total tuition and fees assessed), for example, required the use of 3 separate IPEDS variables—the institution’s unfunded institutional aid, total tuition and fee revenue, and total allowances applied to tuition and fees. The Operating Income Ratio calculations required 9 separate IPEDS variables (which are detailed in the next section). Net tuition revenue per students was also calculated (net tuition revenue divided by enrollment), as well as Total General and Educational Expenditures per student. To ensure accuracy in these calculations, charts were developed to coordinate the calculation process. These charts are included in 55 Appendix A. Once the relevant variables were created, the Excel file was imported into SPSS for statistical analysis. Conceptual Framework In order to develop the conceptual framework for this study, I conducted a series of interviews with administrators at small private colleges and universities, and also reviewed models of financial health presented in the research over the past 20 years. Additionally, I drew upon my decade of experience as a financial aid administrator and my experiences in that capacity. I spoke with three chief administrators at small private colleges—Susan Bolt, Vice President for Administration and Finance at Kettering University in Flint, Michigan, Bob Nichols, Vice President for Enrolhnent Management at the same institution, and Sharon Maher, VP for Finance at Siena Heights University in Adrian, Michigan. From these sources I created a conceptual framework—essentially a model of institutional financial health and the role that tuition discounting plays in influencing financial health. I included in this framework five basic kinds of measures: an outcome variable; a set of variables that describe and institution’s general characteristics; a set of variables that describe student quality; a set of variables that describe institutional quality; and finally the predictor variable of most interest—the tuition discount rate. Each of these five measures (and the rationale for their inclusion in a study of tuition discounting and financial health) are discussed in detail in the following section. 56 Outcome Variables: Institutional Financial Health The main outcome analyzed in this study was financial health. After all, if tuiti: discounting is effective it should serve to bolster an institution’s financial situation. Th financial health of private colleges is often measured using financial ratios which meaSl many aspects of an institution’s financial soundness, including the effectiveness in its u of resources, ability to live within its means, and ability to provide and maintain qualit) educational services and facilities (“Ratios,” 1982, p. v). For this study I had originally intended to use the Operating Income Ratio (OIR), to measures an institution’s financie health. The OIR is calculated as: (Gross Tuition and Fees-Institutional Student Aid+State/Federal/Local Grants and Gifts+0ther Revenue+Auxiliary Revenue-Auxiliary Expenses) (Total Educational and General Expenditures-Auxiliary Expenses-Institutional Studel Aid) The numerator includes gross tuition and fee revenue (net of institutional aid) plus grar. and gifts from federal, state and local sources, plus net auxiliary revenue. The denominator essentially measures net total expenses of the institution (“Ratios,” 1982, I 16). Unfortunately, after the OIR’s were calculated it became apparent that a pre and p 1996 anomaly existed—likely due to the change of the IPEDS form and the confusion surrounding that change. Therefore I turned to other sources to find an appropriate measure of financial health. Moody’s Investor Services uses an array of financial ratios to measure the financial performance of private institutions. These ratios are specifically designed to measure the institution’s ability to “meet debt obligations and are indicative of financia viability” (Townsley, 2002, p. 142). Two measures used by Moody’s are net tuition 57 revenue and net tuition revenue per student (net tuition revenue/enrollment). These two measures are important because they analyze both the financial position and the market position of institutions—both critical factors in overall financial health. Both measures were utilized in this study as indicators of financial health. Institutional Descriptors To examine tuition discounting by different types of BAI and BAII institutions, and to control for possible intervening influences on the relationship between tuition discounting and financial health, I included several institutional descriptors: religious affiliation; enrollment; minority enrollment; locale; gender affiliation; and age of the institution. The first of the institutional descriptors was religious affiliation. Many US. colleges and universities, especially liberal arts colleges, are affiliated with a particular religion or denomination. There is some evidence to suggest that institutions with religious affiliations have experienced recent enrollment growth. One reason for this increase may be the growth of enrollment at Christian high schools in the US, which has increased the recruiting base for religious affiliated institutions. It appears that many young people are seeking a college that will provide “moral rigor” and a religious context in which to learn (Savoye, 2002, p.1). This increase in the demand for religious based higher education may be related to changes in institutional financial health. The second institutional descriptor was size (as measured by enrollment). There is some evidence that size may affect financial health. Smaller colleges may not be able 58 to realize economies of scale—essentially lower per student costs—than larger institutions. As a result, donors may view the institutions as inefficient, and may be less likely to assist them . Further, the smallest colleges typically face extreme financial conditions and must rely on a “trickle” of students to supply revenue. Fewer students means fewer alumni from which to draw donations. John Nelson, Sr. Vice President for Moody’s Investor Services cites enrollment as a major indicator of financial viability, and voices concern that small institutions may experience “long term financial strain” (Townsley, 2002, p. 202). Size definitely appears to be a factor that influences financial health, and was therefore included in this study. The third institutional descriptor—the ethnic make-up of the student body—was measured for this study as the percentage of the student body that was African American, Hispanic, or Native American. These specific groups were included because they are under-represented in higher education. Much has been written about the personal, institutional, and societal benefits of racial diversity on college campuses (for example Rudenstine, 2001; Kurlaender & Yun, 2001; Chang, 2001; Hurtado, 2001). A recent study, entitled “Does Diversity Make a Difference” (2000) by the American Council on Higher Education and the American Association of University Professors indicates that all students, not just minorities, benefit from diversity and that these benefits cannot be duplicated in a homogeneous environment (p. 1). Clearly, diversity is desirable in many ways. An institution that commits to investing in diversity is likely to experience enrollment growth, and therefore, improved financial health. However, diversity can be financially costly. According to Bowen and Bok (1998), “. . .blacks and Hispanics are much more heavily represented among the poor than they are in the population as a 59 whole. . .Admitting genuinely poor students is very costly since such students have very few resources of their own” (p. 270). In this sense, diversity may affect financial health and tuition discounting. Location, the fourth institutional descriptor, was based on the state in which the institution was located. The four geographic locations were: North, South, West, and Midwest. Appendix C provides detail about which states are included in each of the locations. Geographic location may be affect financial health because of populations shifts between regions and its implication for enrollment. According to Kodrzycki’s 1999 study three main factors have contributed to geographic shifts in higher education. First, while the number of public high school graduates declined nationally by 13% between 1972 and 1997, the decline has not been equally distributed geographically. Parts of the Northeast and Midwest experienced declines as much as 26%, while parts of the Sunbelt region actually experienced growth in the number of high school graduates. Second, the qualifications of high school graduates varies demographically. Some areas of the country are experiencing vast increases in the percentage of high school graduates going on to college, whereas this percentage has decreased in other parts of the country. Finally, differences in tuition rates among regions has impacted enrollment as well (p. 28). Many studies of college financial health and tuition discounting include geographic location as an independent variable (Basch, 1996; Weiler, 1994; Savoca, 1990; Day, 1995; Townsley, 2002). Gender affiliation was the fifth control variable. There is some evidence of a waning interest in gender-specific institutions, particularly female-only institutions. Only about 70 of the 300 women’s colleges that were in existence 100 years ago have persisted 60 (Langdon, 2001, p. 5). According to Breneman (1994), “[t]he problem with many women’s colleges lies in the changing values of young women and the shortcoming of extracurricular life” (p. 125). Although students at women’s colleges are typically very vocal about the commitment to remain single-sex, the enrollment at these institutions is, in general, declining, which clearly impacts financial health. The final institutional descriptor included in this study was the age of the institution. Older institutions generally have established histories, secure reputations, and larger alumni bases from which to draw donations. Therefore, they may have larger endowments from which to fund discounts, thus reducing the reliance on unfunded institutional discounts. Indicators of Student Quality Many measures of student quality exist. Among them are the test scores, grades, and high school rank of incoming students. One variable, the admissions competitiveness rating, as reported by the Peterson’s Guide, indicates the difficulty of entry into the institution (Petersons, 2000, p. 7) and serves as a proxy for these individual measures of student quality. The admissions competitiveness rating measures several elements of entrance difficulty and has 5 values: 0 Most Difficult: “More than 75% of the freshmen were in the top 10% of their high school classes and scored over 1310 on the SAT I (verbal and mathematical combined) or over 29 on the ACT (composite); about 30% or fewer of the applicants were accepted” 61 0 Very Difficult: “More than 50% of the freshmen were in the top 10% of their high school class and scored over 1230 on the SAT I or over 26 on the ACT; about 60% or fewer applicants were accepted” 0 Moderately Difficult: “More than 75% of the freshmen were in the top half of their high school classes and scored over 1010 on the SAT I or over 18 on the ACT; about 85% or fewer of the applicants were accepted” - Minimally Difficult: “Most freshmen were not in the top half of their high school class and scored below 1010 on the ACT or below 19 on the ACT; up to 95% of the applicants were accepted” 0 Noncompetitive: “Virtually all applicants were accepted regardless of high school rank or test scores” (Peterson’s Guide, 2000, pp. 943-949). Much of the research related to tuition discounting and institutional financial health recognizes the impact of student quality (or, admissions selectivity) as a factor that explains institutional variations in tuition discounting and health among institutions. Basch’s 1996 study found a positive relationship between student preparation for college and the socioeconomic status of the family (p. 48). Therefore, more selective institutions are likely to attract more wealthy students, and would not need to discount to the extent of less selective institutions. Further, institutions that are more selective are more likely to charge a higher price. There tuition revenue tends to be higher and allows institutions to offer more administrative and student services, which helps the college to remain attractive to potential students (Basch, 1996, p. 48). 62 Indicators of Institutional Quality Institutional quality can also be measured with a variety of variables including: (1) academic reputation; (2) the faculty-student ratio; (3) retention rate; (4) total educational and general expenditures; and (5) endowment value. Academic reputation (prestige) is a key driver of institutional financial health. Many studies confirm that students consider prestige a top determinant of their college choice, and they specifically seek prestigious colleges. They do so for a number of reasons. First, they believe that “prestigious colleges generally have all and more of the characteristics that constitute good quality. Second, students do believe the networking among alumni at prestigious colleges is an added advantage. Third, external forces [such as parental or peer influence] convince them to aim for prestige” (Dehne, 1996, p. 23). Therefore, institutions with prestigious reputations are more likely to have large pools of applicants from which to select an incoming class, and they are less likely to experience financial difficulties than less prestigious institutions. For this study, reputation was measured by the US. News and World Report’s academic reputation score. This score is based on a survey administered to college presidents, provosts, and deans of admission. Respondents are asked to rate their peer schools’ academic reputation on a 5 point scale (1=marginal; 5=distinguished). The faculty-student ratio is another indicator of institutional quality. Many institutions have made efforts to improve this ratio—that is, they have attempted to reduce average classroom enrollment as a strategic measure (Breneman, 1994, p. 38). Institutions often use the faculty-student ratio as a marketing device to promote small class sizes and individualized interaction with faculty members. According to Townsley 63 (2002), while small class sizes are appealing to students and lead to a “more intimate scholarly environment,” they are costly for institutions to maintain. Small class sizes can negatively impact the financial situation of an institution because they reduce the flow of revenue to the institution (p. 105). An institution’s retention rate is another important variable that with a potential impact on institutional health. The retention rate is measured as the percentage of freshmen students returning to the institution for their second year. Generally, it can be thought of as a measure of the institution’s success in offering the educational and other programs that students need in order to succeed at the institution (Townsley, 2002, p. 103). An institution’s endowment level is also likely to be a very important factor in its health. Large endowments allow institutions to endure periods of declining enrollment and decreasing revenue, and to preserve resources for these periods of decline. Endowments serve as a safety net or buffer for periods of financial distress (Townsley, 2002, p. 64). Equally important, a larger endowment allows for the awarding of more funded scholarships (and therefore less reliance on unfunded scholarships), and financial stability for the institution. Total educational and general expenditures, the final control variable, measures institutional quality in that greater spending typically means more and better resources for students (i.e. student services, library, technology, etc.). These resources not only attract new students but encourage existing students to return. The level of resources available to students is a “selling and retention feature” and is likely to influence the outcome of this study—institutional financial health (O’Keefe, 1987, p. 33). 64 The Tuition Discount Rate The tuition discounting rate, which is the predictor variable of most interest in this study, is a policy variable. It is a ratio that institutions can alter, as a matter of policy, to influence enrollment and financial health. Recall that there are three ways to measure the tuition discounting rate. The most basic of these measures is the simple tuition discount which represents the percentage of gross tuition and fees that the institution agrees to forego—essentially, the percentage of gross tuition and fees waived by the college. It is measured as: $ of tuition and fee revenue waived (unfunded institutional aid) Gross Tuition and Fee Revenue The scholarship allowance is the second tuition discount measure. It differs from the simple discount in that the numerator includes unfunded institutional aid as well as filnded institutional aid (from gifts and endowments). The final tuition discount rate, the student tuition discount, includes all student aid (institutional, federal, state, etc.) in the numerator. These various tuition discount measures have varying degrees of relevance to different constituencies. Students, parents, and admissions officers are most interested in the student tuition discount because it represents out-of-pocket cost to the student. Auditors and analysts are generally most interested in the scholarship allowance because it provides a measure of institutional resources—whether funded or unfunded—being used for financial aid. It is an important measure because it represents the opportunity cost of using funded dollars for financial aid rather than some other purpose. Business officers, financial aid officers, presidents, and board of directors, however, often focus on 65 the simple tuition discount (Allen, 1999, p. 4). This is because “the institution loses the cash represented by unfunded aid” (Townsley, 2002, p. 31). Funded institutional aid (as well as external aid such as federal and state aid) represents a discount to the student, but not a loss in revenue to the institution. When tuition revenue is the major source of income (which it is for most private colleges), it is easy to understand why the simple tuition discount is of greatest interest to administrators. For purposes of this study, the scholarship allowance or the simple tuition discount would have been appropriate measures. However due to the limitations of the IPEDS data, the simple tuition discount was the only measure that could be calculated. Therefore, this study uses the simple tuition discount as the tuition discount measure. Appendix B contains a full description of all variables used in this study, along with a complete definition of each, and the source of the data. Data Analysis Methods Each of the three research questions were analyzed using statistical techniques as described below. Research Question 1: What is the pattern of tuition discounting for these institutions? Has tuition discounting increased, decreased, or stayed the same? In order to answer this question, I used SPSS to calculate the means and standard deviations for each individual year’s tuition discounting rate (1990-2000). I also calculated the mean and standard deviation for the 11 year average tuition discount rate and the 11 year change in the tuition discount rate (the 2000 tuition discount rate minus 66 the 1990 rate). I then analyzed these means and standard deviations over time. I conducted the same analysis for the financial health variables (net tuition revenue per student and expenditures per student). The calculations were performed for the BAI institutions and then the BAII institutions. Research Question 2: Are there variations in tuition discounting based on institutional demographics? For example, does discounting vary geographically, or by institution size or age? Analyses of variance was performed to answer this research question. Starting with the BAI institutions, I divided the institutions into quartiles for each variable (for example, with the enrollment variable, I divided the institutions into 4 quartiles: up to 1118 students, 1119 to 1488 students, 1489 to 1933 students; and 1934 or more students). For each quartile, I found the mean of the 11-year tuition discounting average for the institutions in that quartile. I then compared quartiles to look for significant mean differences. This analysis was performed on the following variables: enrollment, age, admissions competitiveness rating, academic reputation score, total general and educational expenditures, endowment, gender affiliation, retention, minority enrollment and the faculty student ratio. After completing this process for the BAI institutions, I conducted the same analyses for the BAIIs. Research Question 3: Does tuition discounting improve the financial health of institutions? In other words, what is the relationship between tuition discounting and the financial health of institutions? 67 In order to analyze tuition discounting and its impact on institutional financial health, I regressed net tuition revenue per student and net tuition revenue (the “health” measures) on all of the institutional descriptors: religious affiliation; enrollment; minority enrollment; location; gender affiliation; and the student quality variable (admissions competitiveness rating). The general form of the regression equations was: NTRPSX= a +b(RELIG) +c(ENROLL) +d(MINORITY) +e(SOUTH) + f(MIDWEST) +g(WEST) +h(GENDER) +i(AGE) +j (ACR) +k(ENDOW) +1(TDRATEX) +e and NTRX= a +b(RELIG) +c(ENROLL) +d(MINORITY) +e(SOUTH) + f(MHDWEST) +g(WEST) +h(GENDER) +i(AGE) +j(ACR) +k(ENDOW) +l(TDRATEx) +e (where NTRPS is net tuition revenue per student and NTR is total net tuition revenue). I looked at regression results for 3 separate years (x= 1990, X: 1995, x=2000) for the BAI and BAII institutions separately, to examine the changes in the impact of tuition discounting on financial health over time. The results of these statistical tests are provided in the next chapter. 68 Chapter Four: Analysis of the Data This chapter provides the results of the statistical tests described at the end of the previous chapter. I start with a rationale for analyzing the BAI and BAII institutions separately, followed by a general description of the samples (basic descriptive statistics), and then the results for each of the three research questions. Rationale for Separate Analysis of BAI and BAII Institutions My original intention for this study was to analyze the BAI and BAH institutions together and to draw conclusions about tuition discounting and financial health for the entire population. However, upon analysis, I found that the differences between the two groups were too great to treat them as a whole. Table 6 provides the means for the descriptor variables for the BAI and BAII institutions. Differences were very notable for nearly every variable, especially the financial and academic quality variables. Table 6. Comparison of BAI and BAII Institutions Mean BAI BAII Significance Age 141 104 -001 Percent Religous 48 84 .001 Percent Co-ed 85 91 .069 Percent in Midwest 28 40 .006 Percent in North 43 28 .002 Percent in South 18 20 .474 Percent in West 1 2 1 2 .91 0 Size (enrollment) 1561 1367 .002 Admissions Competitiveness Rating: 3.63 2.87 .001 Percent Most Difficult 10 0 .001 Percent Very Difficult 42 0 .001 Percent Moderately Difficult 48 90 .001 Percent Minimally Difficult 0 9 .001 L Percent Non-Competitive 0 1.8 .001 @ademic Reputation Score 3.07 2.87 .004 69 Table 6 (cont’d). Faculty-Student Ratio 13.75 22.8 .001 Retention Rate 85 72 .001 Total Educational and General .001 Expenditures 36,000,000 15,000,000 .001 Endowment 3,700,000 486,524 General Description of the BAI Sample Appendix C provides descriptive statistics (minimums, maximums, means, and standard deviations) for all of the variables included in this study. The following section is a brief overview of those statistics. BAI Institutitmal Descriptors (General Institutional Characteristics) The BAI sample included 120 institutions ranging in age from 35 to 258 years. The “youngest” institution in the population was Hampshire College in Massachusetts, founded in 1975. The oldest, The Moravian College and Theological Seminary, in Pennsylvania, was founded in 1742. The mean institution age was 141 years. Slightly more than one-half (52%) of the institutions indicated no religious affiliation, 48% had a religious affiliation. Among these religious affiliations were Roman Catholic, Southern Baptist, Presbyterian, United Methodist, Mennonite, Evangelical Lutheran, and Inter-denominational. Of the 120 institutions, 102 (or, 85%) were co-ed. F emale-only institutions comprised 11.7% of the sample, and male-only institutions comprised about 3%. There were 3 male-only institutions, and 14 female-only institutions in the sample. 70 The institutions were geographically diverse with 28% of the institutions in the Midwest, 43% in the North, 18% in the South, and 12% in the West. (Appendix C contains a description of these geographic classifications). Institutional size, as measured by enrollment, averaged 1,561 students with a minimum of 279 students (Marlboro College in Vermont) and a maximum of 3,414 students (at Bucknell University in Pennsylvania). The average percentage minority students was 8.43% with a range of 1% (several colleges) to 98% (Morehouse College in Georgia). BAI Indicagors of Student Quality All of the 120 institutions had admissions competitiveness ratings (ACR) of 3 (moderately difficult), 4 (very difficult) or 5 (most difficult). Ten percent were considered most difficult, 42% very difficult, and 48% moderately difficult. BAI Indicators of Institutional Quality Indicators of institutional quality included reputation, the faculty student ratio, student retention, educational and general expenditures, and endowment. Reputation was measured by the US. News and World Report Academic Reputation Score (ARS). The Academic Reputation Score is a general rating of the institution’s reputation, as measured by a 5 point scale where 5 is the highest. The average ARS for the institutions was 3.07 (on a 5 point scale). The range for this variable was 2.0 to 4.8. Three colleges in the sample had a 4.8 ARS: Williams College in Massachusetts, Swarthrnore College in Pennsylvania, and Amherst College in Massachusetts. 71 The average faculty-student ratio was 13.75 indicating about 14 faculty members per student. The lowest faculty student ratio was 8—to-1 (several colleges) and the highest was 25 -to-1 (Ursinus College in Pennsylvania). The average percentage of students returning for their second year was 85%. The high was 98% (at Williams College in Massachusetts, Ponoma College in California, and Colgate University in New York), and the lowest was 40% (St. Andrews Presbyterian in North Carolina). The average educational and general expenditures was $36 million with a low of $6.7 million (Marlboro College in Vermont) and a high of $98 million (Smith College in Massachusetts). The average expenditures per student was $23,350 with a high of $42,568 at Swarthmore College in Pennsylvania and a low of $10,578 at Nebraska Wesleyan. The average endowment for the 120 institutions (for 1990-1996) was $3.7 million, with a range from $51,000 (Simon’s Rock College of Bard, Virginia) to $22 million (Wellesley College in Massachusetts). Endowment data are only available for the 1990- 1996 time period because the IPEDS form changed in 1997, combining the reporting of “endowment” value with other assets such as real estate. General Description of the BAII Sample BAII Institutional Descriptors (General Institutional Characteristics) The BAH sample included 167 institutions ranging in age from 27 to 213 years. The “youngest” institution in the population was Wisconsin Lutheran College, founded in 72 1973. The oldest, York College in Pennsylvania, was founded in 1787. The mean institution age was 104 years. Only 16% of the institutions indicated no religious affiliation, with the remaining 84% having a religious affiliation. Among these religious affiliations were Roman Catholic, Southern Baptist, Presbyterian, United Methodist, Mennonite, Evangelical Lutheran, and Inter-denominational. Of the 167 institutions, 152 (or, 91%) were co-ed. There were 12 female-only institutions (about 7% of the sample). There were no male-only institutions in the sample. The sample was geographically diverse as well with 40% of the institutions in the Midwest, 28% in the North, 20% in the South, and 12% in the West. (Appendix C contains a description of these geographic classifications). Institutional size, as measured by enrollment, averaged 1,367 students with a minimum of 347 students (Northwest Christian College in Oregon) and a maximum of 6,449 students (at Columbia College in Missouri). The average percentage of the student body that was minority was 11% with a range of 0% (Dordt College in Iowa) to 100% (Morris College in South Carolina). BAH Indicators of Student Quality All of the 167 institutions had admissions competitiveness ratings (ACR) of 1 (non-competitive), 2 (minimally difficult), or 3 (moderately difficult). Only 1.8% of the institutions were classified as non-competitive, with 9% considered minimally difficult, and the vast majority (90%) considered moderately difficult in terms of admittance. 73 BAH Indicators of InstitutionAOuality Indicators of institutional quality include reputation, the faculty student ratio, student retention, educational and general expenditures, and endowment. Reputation was measured by the US. News and World Report Academic Reputation Score (ARS). The average ARS for the institutions was 2.87 (on a 5 point scale). The range for this variable was 2.0 to 3.9. Two colleges in the sample had a 3.9 ARS: Susquehanna College in Pennsylvania and George Fox University in Oregon. The average faculty-student ratio was 22.8 indicating about 23 faculty members per student. The lowest faculty student ratio was 12-to-1 (several colleges) and the highest was 125-to-1 (Columbia College in Missouri). The average percentage of students returning for their second year was 72%. The high was 94% (at Mt. Ida College in Massachusetts) and the minimum was 44% (Shaw University in North Carolina). The average educational and general expenditures was $15 million with a low of $3.2 million (William Tyndale College in Michigan) and a high of $82 million (Tuoro College in New York). The average expenditures per student was $11,683 with a high of $20,975 at Ottawa University in Kansas, and a low of $3,095 at Columbia College in Missouri. The average endowment for the 167 institutions (for 1990-1996) was $486,524, with a range from $0 (several colleges) to $2.7 million (John Brown University in Arkansas). (Recall that endowment data is only available for the 1990-1996 time period, 74 because the IPEDS form changed in 1997, combining the reporting of “endowment” value with other assets such as real estate). Research Question 1: Patterns of Tuition Discounting and Financial Health Tuition Discount Rate, BA I Consistent with national trends, tuition discounting did rise, in general, for this group of institutions. In 1990, the mean tuition discount rate for the BAI institutions was 17.53%. By 1996, the mean tuition discount rate had risen to 27.85, however it jumped back down to 23.32% in 1997 and increased only slightly by 2000. Table 7 provides the mean tuition discounting rates and standard deviations for each of the years from 1990 to 2000, as well as the ll-year average and the 1 l-year change in the tuition discount rate (as measured by the 2000 tuition discount rate minus the 1990 tuition discount rate). Table 7. Tuition Discount Rates, BAI Institutions Year Mean Tuition Discount Rates Standard Deviation 1990 17.53% 7.1 1991 19.23% 7.1 1992 21.39% 7.7 1993 23.82% 8.4 1994 24.29% 9.3 1995 26.29% 9.5 1996 27.85% 10.0 1997 23.32% 14.7 1998 22.84% 14.2 1999 24.62% 13.1 75 Table ucont’d). 2000 24.63% 12.7 11 year avg 23.32% 8.5 11 year 7.1 percentage points 11.7 change F_irlancial Health Variables, BAI Table 8 provides means and standard deviations for the BAI institutions for the two financial health variables used in this study—net tuition revenue per student and expenditures per student. For the BAI institutions, the mean not tuition revenue per student grew from $9297 in 1990 to $13,529 in 2000—a 46% increase. The average net tuition revenue per student over the 11 year period (1990-2000) was $11,442. The 11 year change in net tuition revenue per student was also calculated for each institution (the 2000 figure minus the 1990 figure) and the mean of that variable was $4332. The mean net tuition revenue grew from about $14.6 million in 1990 to $21.9 million in 2000. The average net tuition revenue for the 11 year period was $18.2 million and the mean of the 11 year change was $5.8 million. Table 8. Financial Health Variables, BAI Institutions Net Tuition Revenue Per Student Net Tuition Revenue Mean Standard Dev Mean Standard Dev 1990 9297 3199 14633405 8195215 1991 9948 3739 15687349 8852257 1992 10259 3341 16273593 9504969 1993 10516 3421 16801083 9946772 76 Table 8 (cont’d). 1994 11115 4054 17678953 10556817 1995 11324 3716 18413716 10852991 1996 11583 3840 19084985 11437255 1997 11861 4416 19028585 11335678 1998 12285 4683 19885462 11860399 1999 12795 4741 20837781 12274896 2000 13529 6509 21893577 12766533 11 Yr 11442 3834 18201682 10532231 Avg 11 Yr 4232 4075 7260172 5766870 Change Tuition Discount Rate, BA 11 institutions. In 1990, the mean tuition discount rate for the institutions in the study was 16.31%. By 2000, the mean tuition discount rate had risen to 23.34%. Table 9 provides the mean tuition discounting rates and standard deviations for each of the years from 1990 to 2000, as well as the 1 1-year average and the ll-year change (as measured by the 2000 tuition discount rate minus the 1990 tuition discount rate). It is interesting to note that for 1990 and 2000, the tuition discount rates for the BAI and BAII institutions were becoming quite similar in contrast to years prior when BAI institutions were discounting significantly more than the BAII institutions. Table 9. Tuition Discount Rates, BAII Institutions As with the BAI institutions, tuition discounting rose, in general, for the BAII Year Mean Tuition Discount Rates Standard Deviation 1 990 1 6.3 1% 8 .6 1991 17.09% 8.9 77 Table 9 @nt’d). 1992 18.11% 9.8 1993 19.39% 9.7 1994 20.08% 9.9 1995 21.53% 9.7 1996 21.58% 11.0 1997 19.47% 15.1 1998 20.50% 14.2 1999 23.17% 14.6 2000 23.34% 12.3 11 year avg 20.05% 8.9 11 year 7.02 percentage points 12.0 change F_in_ancial Health Variables. BAII Table 10 provides means and standard deviations for the BAII institutions for the two financial health variables used in this study—net tuition revenue and net tuition revenue per student. For the BAII institutions, the mean net tuition revenue per student grew from $4657 in 1990 to $7686 in 2000—a 65% increase. The average net tuition revenue per student over the 11 year period (1990-2000) was $6219. The 11 year change in net tuition revenue per student was also calculated for each institution (the 2000 figure minus the 1990 figure) and the mean of that variable was $3030. The mean net tuition revenue grew from about $5.8 million to $11.2 million between 1990 and 2000. The average net tuition revenue for the 11 year period was about $8.5 million and the mean of the 11 year change was about $5.5 million. 78 Table 10. Financial Health Variables, BAII Institutions Net Tuition Revenue Per Student Net Tuition Revenue Mean Standard Dev Mean Standard Dev 1990 4657 1646 5760878 415056 1991 5059 1809 6343124 4452471 1992 5357 1906 7018255 5120299 1993 5669 1973 7597373 5712425 1994 6012 1955 8146992 5708209 1995 6348 2088 8642696 6690733 1996 6694 2022 9173 855 6414723 1997 6664 2250 9253421 6580126 1998 6934 2332 9835253 6950584 1999 7261 2403 10451317 7330203 2000 7686 2649 1 1223272 7945332 11 Yr 6219 1868 8495130 5912612 Avg 11 Yr 3030 2113 5462395 4885494 Change Research Question 2: Variations in Tuition Discounting, BAI Institutions To examine differences in the (11 year) mean tuition discounting rates among institutions based on the institutional descriptors, student quality, and institutional quality, I used an Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) test for mean differences. For overall significant mean differences, I carried out a Bonferroni post-hoe test to determine the nature of the variation. Religious-affiliated institutions had a higher discount rate than non-religious-affiliated institutions (F=5.365, p<.03, d.f.=118). The 11 year mean tuition discount rate for the religious-affiliated institutions was 25%. For the non-religious- affiliated institutions it was 22%, indicating that among the BAI institutions, the 79 religious-affiliated institutions discounted significantly more than the non-religious affiliated institutions. Tuition discounting also varied significantly by institutional enrollment (F=6.520, p<.0001, d.f. = 3, 116). The institutions were divided into quartiles based on enrollment (with the first quartile being the smallest institutions), and then analyzed for variations in mean tuition discount rates among those quartiles. Table 11 provides the quartile break- down and the statistical results. Significant mean differences appeared between institutions in the highest quartile (the largest institutions) and the institutions in the two lowest quartiles. The smaller institutions appeared to be discounting, on average, at a higher rate than the larger schools. When compared to the largest schools (fourth quartile), the institutions in the lowest quartile discounted nearly 9 percentage points more. Institutions in the second quartile discounted about 5.6 percentage points more than the largest institutions. There was no mean difference in tuition discounting rates between the third and fourth quartiles. Table 11. Mean Difference in Tuition Discount Rates, 1990-2000, Based on Enrollment, BAI Institutions Enrollment (# of students) Mean Difference (in Significance percentage points) Column 1 Column 2 [Col 1 — Col 2] Up to 1118 students 1119-1488 students 3.12 .800 1489-1933 students 580* .035 1934 or more 8.72* .000 students 1119-1488 students Up to 1118 students -3.12 .800 1489-1933 students 2.68 1.00 1934 or more -.5.60* .046 students 80 Table 11 (cont’d). 1489-1933 students Up to 1118 students -5.80"‘ .035 1119-1488 students -2.68 1.00 1934 or more 2.91 .959 students 1934 or more Up to 1118 students -8.72* .000 students 1 1 19-1488 students -5.60* .046 1489-1933 students 292 .959 *The mean difference is significant at a minimum of the .05 level. Mean tuition discounting varied by geographic location (F=5.066, p<.003, d.f.=3, 116) primarily because Midwest institutions discounted more heavily than those in the South. Institutions in the Midwest had an average tuition discount rate 7.5 percentage points higher than institutions in the South, and 7.79 percentage point higher than institutions in the West. Table 12 provides the results of the geographic analysis. Table 12. Mean Tuition Discount Rates, 1990-2000, Based on Geographic Location Geographic Location Mean Difference (in Significance percentage points) Column 1 Column 2 [Col 1 - C012] North South 3 .82 .43 1 Midwest -3.68 .259 West 4.11 .575 South North -3 .82 .43 1 Midwest -7.50* .007 West 2.90 1.00 Midwest North 3.68 .259 South 7.50* .007 West 7.79 .019 West North -4.1 1 .575 South -2.90 1.00 Midwest -7.79 .019 81 Mean tuition discounting also varied by age of the institution (F =5.284, p< .003, d.f. = 3, 116). Table 13 provides the Bonferroni results for the age variable (again with the institutions divided into quartiles). Although the reason is not readily apparent, institutions in the third quartile (146 to 168 years of age) discounted more than the other three groups. Table 13. Mean Tuition Discount Rates, 1990-2000, Based on Institutional Age, BAI Age (in years) Mean Difference (in Significance percentage points) Column 1 Column 2 [Col 1 - Col 2] Up to 117 years 118-145 years 1.01 1.00 146-168 years -5.63* .043 169 or more years 1.74 1.00 118-145 years Up to 117 years -1.01 1.00 146-168 years -6.64* .009 169 or more years 7.30 1.00 146-168 years Up to 117 years 5.63* .043 118-145 years 6.64* .009 169 or more years 7.37* .004 169 or more years Up to 117 years -1.74 1.00 118-145 years -7.30 1.00 146-168years -7.37* .004 *The mean difference is significant at a minimum of the .05 level. For two of the institutional descriptor variables, no mean differences in tuition discounting were significant. The first was gender/co-ed (F=1.511, p<.211, d.f.=l , 118) and the second was percent minority enrollment (F=.714, p<.546, d.f.=3, 116). Therefore, tuition discounting does not vary among institutions by co-ed status or percentage of minority enrollment. Tuition discounting varies by the Admissions Competitiveness Rating—the general measure of student quality (F=1 1.161, p < .0001 , d.f = 2, 117). Recall that there are 5 values for this variable ranging from non-competitive (l) to most difficult (5). All 82 of the BAI institutions fell into categories 3, 4, or 5. Table 14 provides the results of the Bonferroni test for the Admissions Competitiveness Rating variable. Institutions rated as moderately difficult (3) and very difficult (4) do not appear to vary in tuition discounting rates. However, there does appear to be a significant difference between tuition discounting rates for the most competitive institutions (5) and the other two types of institutions (3 and 4). The mean tuition discount rate for the moderately difficult institutions was 11 percentage points higher than the mean for the most difficult institutions. Similarly, the very difficult institutions appear to have discounted, on average, 7 percentage points more than the most difficult institutions. Table 14. Mean Differences in Average Tuition Discount Rates, 1990-2000, Based on Admissions Competitiveness Rating, BAI Institutions Admissions Competitiveness Rating Mean Difference Significance (in percentage points) Column 1 Column 2 [Col 1 - Col 2] Moderately Difficult (3) Very Difficult (4) 3.7 .053 Most Difficult (5) 11.1* .000 Very Difficult (4) Moderately Difficult (3) -3.7 .053 Most Difficult (5) 7.4* .009 Most Difficult (5) Moderately Difficult (3) -11.l* .000 Very Difficult (4) -7.4* .009 *The mean difference is significant at a minimum of the .05 level. Mean tuition discounting rates also varied by academic reputation score (ARS) (F=l2.114, p<.0001, d.f.=3, 116). Again, institutions were divided into quartiles based on their ARS. Table 15 presents the results. When looking at the last row of this table it is apparent that the institutions in the lowest three quartiles were discounting at a higher rate than the institutions with the highest ARS. When compared to the highest quartile, institutions in the lowest quartile were discounting at a rate over 10 percentage points higher. There appears to be a diminishing of the mean difference, however, with 8.68 83 percentage points separating quartiles 2 and 4, but only 5.48 percentage points separating quartiles 3 and 4. Table 15. Mean Tuition Discount Rates, 1990—2000, Based on Academic Reputation Score, BAI Academic Reputation Score (Scale of 1-5; Mean Difference (in Significance 1 is lowest) percentage points) Column 1 Column 2 [Col 1 - Col 2] Up to 2.5 2.51 to 2.95 2.08 1.00 2.96 to 3.58 5.28* .033 3.59 or higher 10.76* .000 2.51 to 2.95 Up to 2.5 -2.08 1.00 2.96 to 3.58 3.20 .745 3.59 or higher 868* .000 2.96 to 3.58 Up to 2.5 -5.28* .033 2.51 to 2.95 -3.20 .745 3.59 or higher 549* .034 3.59 or higher Up to 2.5 -10.76* .000 2.51 to 2.95 -8.68* .000 2.96 to 3.58 -5.48* .034 *The mean difference is significant at a minimum of the .05 level. Mean tuition discounting varied by total educational and general expenditures (F=8.300, p<.0001, d.f. = 3, 116). When separated by quartiles, the institutions with the highest expenditures discounted less than the institutions with smaller expenditures (Table 16). Table 16. Mean Tuition Discount Rates, 1990-2000, Based on Total Educational and General Expenditures, BAI Educational and General Expenditures Mean Signifi- Difference (in canoe percentage Column 1 Column 2 points) [Col 1 - Col 2] Up to $20.8 million $20.8 million -$33.3 million 1.55 1.00 $33.3-$49 million 4.82 .113 More than $49 million 931* .000 $20.8 million -$33.3 million Up to $20.8 million -1.55 1.000 $33.3 million -$49 million 3.28 .649 More than $49 million 7.78* .001 84 Table 16 (cont’d). $33.3 million-$49 million Up to $20.8 million -4.82 .113 $20.8 million-$33.3 million -3.28 .649 More than $49 million 4.50 .169 More than $49 million Up to $20.8 million -9.32* .000 $20.8 million- $33.3 million -7.77* .001 $33.3 -$49 million -4.50* .169 *The mean difference is significant at a minimum of the .05 level. Mean tuition discounting varied by endowment (F=4.762, p<.005, d.f. = 3, 116). Institutions in the lowest two quartiles had significantly higher tuition discounting rates than the more well-endowed institutions (see Table 17). The more well-endowed institutions are able to fund discounts with endowments rather than simply waiving the tuition. The simple tuition discount is analyzed here (i.e., the percentage of gross tuition that is waived for students), so it is not surprising that institutions with higher endowments would have lower simple tuition discount rates. Simply put, they can still offer plenty of “discounts” to students, but the discounts are funded by endowment rather than unfunded. Table 17. Mean Tuition Discount Rates, 1990-2000, Based on Endowment, BAI Endowment Signifi- Difference (in canoe percentage Column 1 Column 2 points) [Col 1 - C012] Up to $1.27 million $1 .27 million - $2.47 million 1.63 1.00 $2.48 million - $4.74 million 2.42 1.00 More than $4.74 million 752* .003 $1 .27 million - $2.47 million Up to $1.27 million -1.62 1.00 $2.48 million - $4.74 million .788 1.00 More than $4.74 million 589* .036 $2.48 million - $4.74 million Up to $1 .27 million -2.42 1.00 $1.27 million - $2.47 million -.788 1.00 More than $4.74 million 511* .101 85 Table 17Qont’d). More than $4.74 million Up to $1 .27 million -7.52* .003 $1.27 million - $2.47 million -5.89* .036 $2.48 million - $4.74 million -5.11 .101 *The mean difference is significant at a minimum of the .05 level. For two of the institutional quality variables, no mean differences in tuition discounting were significant. The first was the faculty-student ratio (F=2.132, p<.100, d.f.=3, 114) and the second was retention (F =2.125, p<.101, d.f.=3, 115). Therefore, tuition discounting does not vary among the BAI institutions by retention rates or faculty- student ratios. Variations in Tuition Discounting, BAII Institutions Unlike the BAI institutions, mean tuition discounting rates for the BAII institutions varied by minority student enrollment (F=5.345, p<.003, d.f. =3, 161). Using quartiles based on the percentage of minority students, institutions with the highest minority percentage had lower mean tuition discount rates than the institutions in the other quartiles. Institutions in the highest quartile (those with the highest percentages of minority students) appear to have discounted about 6 percentage points less that the other institutions. Table 18 provides the results of this statistical test. Table 18. Mean Tuition Discount Rates, 1990-2000, Based on Minority Enrollment, BAH Minority Student Percentage Mean Signifi- Difference (in cance Column 1 Column 2 percentage points) [Col 1 - C012] 86 Table 18 (cont’d). Up to 3.57% minority 3.58% to 6.96% minority .77 1.00 6.97% to 13.54% minority .12 1.00 13.55% or higher minority 6.47* .005 3.58% to 6.96% minority Up to 3.57% minority -.77 1.00 6.97% to 13.54% minority -.65 1.00 13.55% or higher minority 5.70* .033 6.97% to 13.54% minority Up to 3.57% minority -.12 1.00 3.58% to 6.96% minority .065 1.00 13.55% or higher minority 6.35* .004 13.55% or higher minority Up to 3.57% minority -6.47* .005 3.58% to 6.96% minority -5.70* .033 6.97% to 13.54% minority -6.35* .004 *The mean difference is significant at a minimum of the .05 level. Tuition discounting also varied among the BAII institutions by geographic location (F 2.972 p<.034, d.f.=3,163). In particular, the Midwest institutions discounted 6 percentage points more than the institutions in the West. No other mean differences were apparent. The results are presented in Table 19. Table 19. Mean Tuition Discount Rates, 1990-2000 Based on Geographic Location Geographic Location Mean Difference (in Significance percentage points) Column 1 Column 2 [Col 1 - C012] North South -1.48 1.00 Midwest -3.05 .424 West 3.13 1.00 South North 1 .48 1 .00 Midwest -1.57 1.00 West 4.61 .373 Midwest North 3.05 .424 South 1.57 1.00 West 618* .034 West North -3.13 1.00 South -4.61 .373 Midwest -6.18* .034 87 Mean tuition discounting also varied by institutional age (F=4.282, p<.007, d.f. 3, 160). The oldest institutions (those in the highest quartile) discounted significantly less that the youngest institutions (those in the lowest two quartiles) by about 6 percentage points. No significant mean difference was evident in discounting between institutions in the top 2 quartiles. Table 20 provides the statistical results for this variable. Table 20. Mean Tuition Discount Rates, 1990-2000, Based on Institutional Age, BAII Age (in years) Mean Difference (in Significance percentage points) Column 1 Column 2 [Col 1 - Col 2j Up to 73 Years 74-107 Years -.94 1.00 108-133 Years -2.81 .840 134+ Years -6.47* .006 74-107 Years Up to 73 Years .94 1.00 108-133 Years -1.87 1.00 134+ Years -5.53* .033 108-133 Years Up to 73 Years 2.81 .840 74-107 Years 1.86 1.00 134+ Years -3.66 .358 134+ Years Up to 73 Years 647* .006 74-107 Years 553* .033 108-133 Years 3.66* .358 *The mean difference is significant at a minimum of the .05 level. For three of the institutional descriptor variables, no mean differences in tuition discounting were significant. The first was religious affiliation (F=1.785, p<.l83, d.f.=l , 163), the second was co-ed/gender (F=.935, p<.335, d.f.=1, 164), and the third was size/enrollment (F=.774, p<.510, d.f.=3, 162). Therefore, tuition discounting does not vary among the BAII institutions by co-ed status, religious affiliation, or size. Mean tuition discounting differed by academic reputation score (ARS) (F=4.445, P<.006, d.f.=3, 163). Most notable was the mean difference between the institutions in 88 the highest 2 quartiles versus the institutions in the lowest quartile (Table 21). The institutions with the lowest academic reputation scores discounted about 6 percentage points less than those with the highest scores. Table 21. Mean Tuition Discount Rates, 1990—2000, Based on Academic Reputation Score, BAH Academic Reputation Score Mean Difference (in Significance percentage points) Column 1 Column 2 [Col 1 - Col 2] Up to 2.60 2.61 to 2.80 -4.29 .121 2.81 to 3.10 -5.77* .014 3.11 and higher -5.98* .014 2.61 to 2.80 Up to 2.60 4.30 .121 2.81 to 3.10 -1.47 1.00 3.11 and higher -1.68 1.00 2.81 to 3.10 Up to 2.60 5.77* .014 2.60 to 2.80 1.47 1.00 3.11 and higher -.21 1.00 3.11 and higher Up to 2.60 5.98* .014 2.61 to 2.80 1.68 1.00 2.81 to 3.10 .21 1.00 *The mean difference is significant at a minimum of the .05 level. All of the BAII institutions fell into either the noncompetitive(1), minimally difficult(2), or moderately difficult(3) categories of the admissions competitiveness rating. Large, significant mean differences in tuition discounting were evident as shown in Table 22 (F =10.77 1 , p<.0001, d.f.=2, 164). Noncompetitive institutions discounted, on average, over 17 percentage points less than the moderately difficult institutions. The minimally difficult institutions appear to have discounted over 7 percentage points less than their moderately difficult counterparts. Table 22. Mean Tuition Discount Rates, 1990-2000, Based on Admissions Competitiveness Rating, BAH Institutions Signifi- canoe Mean Difference (in percentage points) [Col 1 - C012] Admissions Competitiveness Rating Column 1 Column 2 89 Table 22 (cont’d). Noncompetitive (1) Minimally Difficult (2) -9.67 .217 Moderately Difficult (3) -17.09* .002 Minimally Difficult (2) Noncompetitive (1) 9.67 .217 Moderately Difficult (3) -7.41 * .004 Moderately Difficult (3) Noncompetitive (1) 17.09* .002 Minimally Difficult(2) 7.41 * .004 *The mean difference is significant at a minimum of the .05 level. Tuition discounting rates varied by the faculty-student ratio (F=9.138, p<.0001, d.f.: 3,162). As shown in Table 23, the lowest quartile institutions had the lowest number of students per faculty member. (Quartile 1 included institutions in which the ratio was 17.03 faculty per student or less). The institutions with the lowest faculty- student ratios (i.e. smaller class sizes) discounted less than the institutions with higher faculty-student ratios. Table 23 provides the statistical analysis for the faculty-student ratio. Table 23. Mean Tuition Discount Rates, 1990-2000, Based on F aculty-Student Ratio, BAII Faculty-Student Ratio (# of faculty Mean Difference (in Significance members per student) percentage points) Column 1 Column 2 [Col 1 - Col 2] Up to 17.03 17.04 to 20.25 4.68 .063 20.26 to 24.71 5.19* .027 24.72 and higher 945* .000 17.04 to 20.25 Up to 17.03 -4.68 .063 20.26 to 24.71 .510 1.00 24.72 and higher 4.77 .058 20.26 to 24.71 Up to 17.03 -5.19* .027 17.04 to 20.25 -5.10 1.00 24.72 and higher 4.26 .118 24.72 and higher Up to 17.03 -9.45* .000 17.04 to 20.25 -4.77 .058 20.26 to 24.71 -4.26 .118 *The mean difference is significant at a minimum of the .05 level. 90 Unlike BAI institutions, the more well endowed BAH institutions discounted more than the BAH institutions with lower endowments (F=9.031, p<.0001, d.f.=3,163). The mean tuition discounting rates for the highest quartile was approximately 7 percentage points higher than the mean tuition discounting rates for the lowest 2 quartiles (see Table 24). Table 24. Mean Tuition Discount Rates, 1990-2000, Based on Endowment, BAII Endowment Mean Difference Signifi- Column 1 Column 2 (in percentage canoe points) [Col 1 - C012] Up to $117,714 $117,715 to $307, 658 -.86 1.00 $307,659 to $699,829 -6.43* .004 $699,830 and higher -7.72* .000 $117,715 to $307,658 Up to $117,714 .86 .000 $307,659 to $699,829 -5.57* .016 $699,830 and higher -6.86* .001 $307,659 to $699,829 Up to $117,714 6.43* .004 $117,715 to $307,658 5.57* .016 $699,830 and higher -1.29 1.00 $699,830 and higher Up to $117,714 7.72* .000 $117,715 to $307, 658 6.86* .001 $307, 659 to $699,829 1.29 1.00 *The mean difference is significant at a minimum of the .05 level. For two of the institutional quality variables, no mean differences in tuition discounting were significant. The first was retention (F=2.199, p<.09, d.f.=3, 163) and the second was total educational and general expenditures (F=1.210, p<.308, d.f.=3, 163). Therefore, tuition discounting does not vary among the BAII institutions by retention rates or by total educational and general expenditures. In summary, there are several key differences in tuition discounting based on institutional characteristics, student quality, and institutional quality. In general, among 91 BAI institutions, the less prestigious, smaller, older institutions discount more. Among the BAII institutions it is the younger, more prestigious, higher endowed institutions that discount more. These results suggest a blurring of the distinction between the lower status BAIs and the higher status BAIIs, which I will explore in the final regression model in this chapter. Research Question 3: Tuition Discounting and Institutional Financial Health To analyze the influence of tuition discounting on institutional financial health, I regressed Net Tuition Revenue per Student and Net Tuition Revenue—the institutional financial health measures—fin the institutional descriptors (religious affiliation, enrolhnent, minority enrollment, locale, gender affiliation, and institutional age) and the student quality variable (the admissions competitiveness rating). Because the institutional quality variables were all very highly correlated (see Appendix E), I only used one of them, endowment, because of its importance in the descriptive analyses. The general form of the regression equation was: - NTRPSX= a +b(RELIG) +c(ENROLL) +d(MINORITY) +e(SOUTH) + f(MIDWEST) +g(WEST) +h(GENDER) +i(AGE) +j(ACR) +k(ENDOW) +1(TDRATEX) +e. . NTRX= a +b(RELIG) +c(ENROLL) +d(MINORITY) +e(SOUTH) + f(MIDWEST) +g(WEST) +h(GENDER) +i(AGE) +j(ACR) +k(ENDOW) +1(TDRATEX) +e. 92 Both equations were run for the BAI institutions and then the BAII institutions for each of the years 1990, 1995, and 2000, for a total of 12 regression equations. Tuition Discounting and Institutional Health, BAI Institutions Table 25 provides the results of the 1990 regression equation for the BAI institutions with net tuition revenue per student as the dependent variable. The R-squared for this model was .509 indicating that the independent variables in the model account for just half the variation in net tuition revenue per student. The coefficient for the 1990 tuition discounting rate was statistically significant and indicates that for every 1 percentage point increase in the tuition discounting rate, not tuition revenue per student declined by $143. For these institutions in 1990, it appears that higher tuition discount rates lower net tuition revenue per student. Religious affiliation, and percent minority students were also significantly negatively related to net tuition revenue per student. Table 25. Regression Coefficients, 1990, Net Tuition Revenue Per Student as Dependent Variable, BAI Institutions R2=.509 Unstandardizetj Standardizegl t Sig. Collinearitj N=120 Coefficient Coefficient Statistic B Std. Error Betal Tolerance VIF (Constant) 11660.927 2090.446 5.578 .000 Religious -2968.332 566.791 -.466 -5.237 .000 .576 1.737 Affiliation Average -.733 .423 -.153 -1.733 .086 .587 1.704 Enrollment, 1990-2000 Minority -4720.150 2042.142 -.184 -2.311 .023 .715 1.398I Percentage Av Institutio -1084.242 735.260 -.129 -1.475 .143 .592 1.690 Located' Sou Institutio -38.681 604.450 -.005 -.O64 .949 .622 1.606 Located' Midwes 93 Table 25 (cont’d). Institution 194.035 746.376 .020 .260 .795 .804 1.243 Locatedirfl Wes Coed 598.892 696.357 .067 .860 .392 .747 1.339 Ae .893 5.383 .012 .166 .869 .826 1.210 Admissions: 766.987 460.150 .161 1.667 .098' .486 2.05 Competitive ness Ratin Av 1.428E-04 .000 .172 1.726 .087 .460 2.176 Endowmen 1990-199 Tuitiog -14271.403 3485.495 -.349 -4.095 .000 .627 1.595 Discoun Rate 199 Table 26 provides the results of the regression equation for the BAI institutions for 1995 with net tuition revenue per student as the dependent variable. The R—squared for this model was .691. The coefficient for the 1995 tuition discounting rate indicates that for every 1 percentage point increase in tuition discounting, net tuition revenue per student fell by $158. This result is similar to the 1990 result, with a slightly higher decline in net tuition revenue per student associated with each 1 percentage point increase in the tuition discounting rate. Just as in 1990, religious affiliation and percent minority students were significantly negatively related to net tuition revenue per student. Co-ed and average endowment, however, were significantly positively related to net tuition revenue per student. It is not surprising that endowment and net tuition revenue per student would be positively related—higher endowments allow institutions to discount from funded sources, thus essentially increasing net tuition revenue per student. Table 26. Regression Coefficients, 1995, Net Tuition Revenue Per Student as Dependent Variable, BAI Institutions R2=.691 Unstandardize Standardize t Sig. Collinearirzl N=120 Coefficient Coefficient Statistic 1% Std. Error Betal Tolerance] VIF 94 Table 26 (cont’d). (Constantj 12842.918 2169.336 5.920 .000 Religiousl Affiliation £561,130 529.323 -.346 -4.839 .000 .592 1.689 Average Enrollment, 1990-2000 -.107 .398 -.019 -.270 .788 .589 1.698 Minority Percentage Av -4870.563 190] .7841 -.l68| -2.561 .012 .707 1.415 Institutio Located ' Sout -1043.662 677.084I -.107 -l.541 .126 .625 1.599 Institutio Located ' Midwes -1022.790 553.006 -.126 -l.850 .067 .6481 1.543 Institutio Located ' Wes 863.8581 722.480 .077 1.196 .235 .738 1.356 Coed 1338.268 667.906 .129 2.004l .048 .733 1.365 Age 2.76 5.379 .032 .513 .609 .797 1.255 Admissions: Competitive ness Ratin 921.0881 472.368I .160 1.950 .054 .449 2.229 Avg} Endowment 1 990-1 996 2.1 8613-041 .000 .230 2.816 .006 .452 2.211 Tuition Discount Rate 1995 -1 5774.9081 2652.406 -.402 -5.947 .000 .662 1.511 Table 27 provides the results of the 2000 regression equation for the BA] institutions with net tuition revenue per student as the dependent variable. The R-squared for this model was .565. This 2000 tuition discounting rate variable proved to be a significant predictor of financial health with net tuition revenue per student declining by $359 for every 1 percentage point increase in the tuition discounting rate. Two variables—religious affiliation and enrollment were also significantly negatively related to net tuition revenue per student. 95 Table 27. Regression Coefficients, 2000, Net Tuition Revenue Per Student as Dependent Variable, BAI Institutions R2=.565 Unstandardize Standardizej 11 Sig. Collineari N=120 Coefficien Coefficient Statistic B Std. Error Bet Tolerance VIF (Constant) 26927.486 4128.504 6.522 .000 Religiou -3627.920 1104.231 -.280 -3.285 .001 .556 1.79 Affiliation Average -1.607 .726 -.1641 -2.214 .029 .730 1.369 Enrollment, 1990-2000 Minority -5014.5481 3905.321 -.096 -1.284 .202 .717 1.395 Percentage Ava Institution -1016.111 1387.995 -.060 -.732 .466 .609 1.643 Locatedin South Institution 416.117 1152.166 .029 .361 .719 .628 1.592 Locatedin Midwest Institution 317.480 1429.374 .016 .222 .825 .804 1.244 Locatedin West Coed 2224.192 1323.423 .123 1.681 .096 .758 1.319 Age 12.295 10.371 .083 1.186 .238 .816 1.225 Admissions, 226.60 902.925 .023 .251 .802 .463 2.162 Competitive ness Ram Avg 1.135E-04l .000 .067 .733 .465 .481 2.081 Endowment 1990-1996 Tuition -38640.658 5038.278 -.592 -7.669 .000 .675 1.481 Discount Rate 2000 Table 28 provides the results of the 1990 regression equation for the BAI institutions, with net tuition revenue as the dependent variable measuring financial health. The R-squared was .855, indicating that the independent variables in the model account for nearly 86% of the variation in net tuition revenue. The tuition discount rate for 1990 proved to be a significant predictor of financial health with net tuition revenue declining by $118,573 for every 1 percentage point increase in the tuition discounting rate. Enrollment and endowment were significantly positively related to net tuition revenue 96 and religious affiliation and minority enrollment were significantly negatively related to net tuition revenue. Table 28. Regression Coefficients, 1990, Net Tuition Revenue as Dependent Variable, BAI Institutions N=120 Unstandardize Standardizej t Sig. R2=.855 Coefficient Coefficien B Std. Error Betal (Constant) 1292081.729 2909224354 .444 .6581 Religious -4404887.797 788788.884 -.270 -5.584 .000 Affiliation Average 8838.483 588.791 .718 15.011 .000 Enrolhnent, 1990-2000 Minority -13299213.505 2842000657 -.203 -4.680 .000 Percentage Ava Institution —1111724.978 1023244351 -.052 -1.086 .280 Locatedin South Institution -1074166.959 841 199.378 -.059 -1.277 .204 Locatedin Midwest Institution 240771.976 1038714319 .009 .232 .817 Locatedin West] Coed 771475.690 969102.922 .034 .796 .4281 Age 4002.619 7491.186 .022 .534 .594 Admission 973 770.034l 640380.483 .080 1.521 .131 Competitivj ness Ratin Av? .302 .115 .142 2.622 .010 Endowmen 1990-199 Tuition -11857307.181 4850680396 -.113 -2.444 .016 Discoun Rate 199 Table 29 provides the results of the 1995 regression equation for the BAI institutions with net tuition revenue as the dependent variable. The R-squared was .876. The tuition discounting variable was significantly related to net tuition revenue with net tuition revenue declining by $176,606 for each 1 percentage point increase in the tuition 97 discounting rate. As with the 1990 equation, enrollment and endowment were significantly positively related to net tuition revenue, and religious affiliation and enrollment were significantly negatively related to net tuition revenue. Table 29. Regression Coefficients, 1995, Net Tuition Revenue as Dependent Variable, BAI Institutions N=120 Unstandardize?! Standardizejl t Sig. R2=.876 Coefficient Coefficient B Std. Error Betal (Constant) 788488.634l 3848708893 .205 .83 Religious: -4381424040 956874.226 -.203 -4.579 .000 Affiliation Average 1141 1.503 706.124 .700 16.161 .000 Enrollment, 1990-2000 Minority -l3732040.930 3469402266 —.158 -3.958 .000 Percentage. Avg] Institution -514927.835 1227351651 -.018 -.420 .676 Locatedin South Institution -2152289.555 1013224266 -.090 -2.124 .036 Locatedin Midwest] Institutio 1313006687 1286368146 .039 1.021 .310 Located' Wes Coed 1674649.484| 1180003344 .055 1.419 .15 Age 5359.691 9124.380 .022 .587 .5581 Admission 1432239300 797376.259 .089 1.796 .075 Competitiv ness Ratin Av .461 .138 .1641 3.343 .001 Endowmen 1990-199 Tuitio -17660580.855 4759232768 -.153 -3.711 .000 Discoun Rate 1995 Table 30 provides the results of the regression equation for 2000 for the BAI institutions with net tuition revenue as the dependent variable. The R-squared for this 98 model was .824. Again, the tuition discounting rate proved to be a significant predictor of net tuition revenue with net tuition revenue declining by $397,841 for every 1 percentage point increase in the tuition discount rate. As with the 1990 and 1995 equations, enrollment and endowment were significantly positively related to net tuition revenue and religious affiliation and minority enrollment were significantly negatively related to net tuition revenue. Table 30. Regression Coefficients, 2000, Net Tuition Revenue as Dependent Variable, BAI Institutions N=120 Unstandardizeil Standardizej t Sig. R2=.82 Coefficient Coefficient B Std. Error Betal (Constant) 9621794557 5155106713 1.866 .065 Religious -5036272.272 137881 1.457 -. 198 -3 .653 .000 Affiliation Average 1 1781.193 906.683 .614I 12.99 .000 Enrollment, 1990-2000 Minority -15256403.045 4876427 .630 -.149 -3. 129 .002 Percentag Av; Institution -862453.544I 1733137521 -.026 -.498I .620 Located ' South Institution -1710088.310 1438666779 -.061 -1 . 189 .237 Located in Midwest Institution 348174.293 1784805943 .009 .195 .846 Located in West Coed 3100212535 1652508550 .087 1.876 .063 Age 186845481 12949.817 .065 1.443 .152 Admissionsl 1612006073 1 127448.838l .085 1.430 .156 Competitive ness Ratin Av .274 .193 .082 1.415 . 160 Endowmen 1990-199 Tuitio -397841 1 1.523 6291 107.806 -.31 1 -6.324 .000 Discoun Rate 200 99 Table 31 provides the results of the 1990 regression equation for the BAII institutions with net tuition revenue per student as the dependent variable. The R-squared. for this model was .261 indicating that many factors other than those captured in this model influence net tuition revenue per student. For this equation, the tuition discounting rate was not a significant predictor of financial health as measured by net tuition revenue per student. However two variables—“South” location and “West” location—were significantly negatively related to net tuition revenue per student. The admissions competitiveness rating and average endowment were both significantly positively related to net tuition revenue per student. Table 31. Regression Coefficients, 1990, Net Tuition Revenue Per Student as Dependent Variable, BAII Institutions R2=.261 Unstandardizeril Standardized] t Sig. Collinearitil N=167 Coefficient Coefficient Statistic B Std. Error Betal Tolerance VIF Constant) 2201.888 1122.305 1.962 .052 Religiousl -473.118l 347.565 -.105 -1.361 .175 .819 1.221 Affiliation Average -.159 .144l -.085 -1.104I.271 .825 1.212 Enrollment, 1990-2000 Minority -93.757 879.150 -.008 —.107 .915 .884 1.132 Percentage Avg Institution —1575.153 391.263 -.383 —4.026 .000 .536 1.864 Located in South Institution -653.270 322.519 -.194 -2.026 .045 .528 1.895 Located in Midwest Institution -1449.169 452.931 -.281 -3.200 .002 .628l 1.592 Located in West Coed 604.432 462.030 .095 1.308 .193 .912 1.097 _Age 7.374I 3.179 .178| 2.319 .022 .829 1.207 Admissionsa 843.442 332.147 .194 2.539 .012 .833 1.201 Competitive ness Rm 100 Table 31 (cont’d). Avfl 4.894E-04l .000 .155 19841.04 .800 1.251 Endowmen 1990-1996 Tuition -759.496 1425.179 -.043 -.533 .595 .742 1.3481 Discoun Rate 199 Table 32 provides the results of the 1995 regression equation for the BAII institutions with net tuition revenue per student as the dependent variable. The R-squared was .242. The tuition discounting rate was significant in this model and was negatively related to net tuition revenue per student. Specifically, every 1 percentage point increase in tuition discounting was associated with a decrease in net tuition revenue per student of $47. Two variables, enrollment and “South” location, were significantly negatively related to net tuition revenue per student and two others, age and admissions competitiveness rating, were positively associated with net tuition revenue per student. Table 32. Regression Coefficients, 1995, Net Tuition Revenue Per Student as Dependent Variable, BAH Institutions R2=.242 Unstandardizetj Standardized] t Sig. Collineari N=167 Coefficient Coefficient Statistic B Std. Error Betal Tolerance VIF Constant) 3473.438 1442.419 2.408 .017 Religiousl -599.864 449.839 -.105 -1.334 .184 .812 1.231 Affiliation Average -.576 .187 -.241 -3.089 .002 .823 1.216 Enrollment, 1990-2000 Minority -1058.472 1149.240 -.070 -.921 .359 .861 1.162 Percentage Av Institution 47844141 508.215 -.342 -3.511 .001 .528 1.892 Locatedin South Institution -516680 416.983 -.121 -1.239 .217 .526 1.901 Locatedin Midwest Institution -1107.772 571.123 -.170 -1.940 .054 .656 1.52 Locatedin West Coe 1326.853 597.465 .165 2.221 .02 .905 1.105 101 Table 32 (cont’d) Age] 8.549 4.123] .162 2.073 .040 .8181 1.223 Admission 1289.002 425.8041 .234 3.027 .003 .841 1.1881 Competitiv ness Ratin Av 6.172E-041 .000 .154 1.908 .058 .773 1.294 Endowment 1990-1996 Tuition -4669.9141 1793.367 -.223 -2.604 .010 .687 1.457 Discount Rate 1995 Table 33 provides the results of the 2000 regression equation for the BAII institutions with net tuition revenue per student as the dependent variable. The R-squared was .153. Similar to 1995, a significantly negative relationship was evident between financial health (as measured by net tuition revenue per student) and the tuition discounting rate. For every 1 percentage point increase in the tuition discounting rate, net tuition revenue per student drops by $41. Two other variables were also significantly negatively related to net tuition revenue per student—“South” location and “Midwest” location. Table 33. Regression Coefficients, 2000, Net Tuition Revenue Per Student as Dependent Variable, BAII Institutions R2=.153 Unstandardizej Standardizeci t Sig. Collinearitj N=167 Coefficien Coefficient Statistic B Std. Error Betal Tolerance VIF (Constant) 8912.857 1943.350 4.586 .000 Religiousl -684.395 601.097 -.094I -1 . 139 .257 .818 1.223 Affiliationl Average -.377 .253 -.124! -1.490 .138I .801 1.2481 Enrolhnent, 1990-2000 Minority -1564800 1559.068 -.082 -1.004I .317 .839 1.192 Percentage Av Institution -1961.3481 663.183 -.296 -2.957 .0041 .5581 1.7941 Located in South 102 Table 33 cont’d). Institution -1385.601 542.670 -.256 -2.553 .012 .557 1.79 Locatedin Midwest Institution -903.288 763.444 -.109 -1.183 .239 .660 1.515 Locatediri Westl Coe -438.981 799.695 -.043 -.549 .5841 .909 1.10 Age 1.209E-02 5.573 .000 .002 .998 .805 1.242 Admissions 800.672 561.721 .114 1.425 .156 .869 1.150 Competitive ness Ratin Av? 7.943E-041 .000 .156 1.827 .070 .769 1.300 Endowmen 1990-1996 Tuition -4065.247 1946.190 -.185 -2.089 .038 .708 1.412 Discount Rate 2000 Table 34 provides the results of the 1990 regression equation for the BAII institutions with net tuition revenue as the dependent variable. The R-squared was .628. In this case, the tuition discounting rate was not significantly related to net tuition revenue. However, enrollment and endowment were significantly positively related to net tuition revenue and Southern location and Western location were significantly negatively related to net tuition revenue. Table 34. Regression Coefficients, 1990, Net Tuition Revenue as Dependent Variable, BAH Institutions N=167 Unstandardizetj Standardized] t1 Sig. R2=.628 Coefficient Coefficient B Std. Error Betal (Constant 510279.508 2000139241 .255 .799 Religious -412553.477 619420.160 -.036 -.666 .506 Affiliatiorl Average 2932.972 257.239 .621 1 1.402 .000 Enrollment, 1990-2000 Minority -1847608.540 1566795347 -.062 -1.179 .240 Percentage Av Institutio -21 10936.517 697297.630 -.204 -3.027 .003 Located ' Sout 7 103 Table 34 (cont’d). Institution -1084287.482 574784.373 -.128I -1.886 .061 Located in Midwest Institution -2861453.564 8072005081 -.221 -3.545 .001 Located in West] Coed 450857.931 823415.916 .028[ .548 .585 Age 461.360 5666.372 .004J .081 .935 Admissions 718074.088 591943.430 .066 1.213 .227 Competitive ness Rating Ava 1.573 .440 .198 3.577 .000 Endowment 1990-1996 Tuition -1582149.677 2539912427 -.036 -.623 .53 Discount Rate 1990 Table 35 provides the results of the regression equation for 1995 for the BAII institutions with net tuition revenue as the dependent variable. The R-squared for the model was .686. As with the previous model, the tuition discounting rate does not appear to be Significantly related to net tuition revenue. Similar to the 1990 results, enrollment was Significantly positively related to net tuition revenue and both Southern and Western location were Significantly negatively related to net tuition revenue. Table 35. Regression Coefficients, 1995, Net Tuition Revenue as Dependent Variable, BAII Institutions N=167 Unstandardizetj Standardizej 1: Sig. R2=.686 Coefficient Coefficient B Std. Error Betal (Constant) -345938.97 8 2694031.669 -. 128 .8981 Religiou -708063.345 836124.170 -.043 -.847 .3981 Affiliation Average 5 103.404! 347.367 .73 5 14.692 .000 Enrollment, 1990-2000 Minority -1 194273.063 2146008840 -.027 -.557 .579 Percentage fl 104 Table 35 (cont’d). Institutio -2869538.072 940155.773 -. 189 -3.052 .003 Located in South Institution -1444276810 767229.488 -.1 16 -1.882 .062 Located in Midwest Institution -2233449.200 1061932039 -.117 -2.103 .037 Located in West Coed 1001340662 1115744311 .043 .897 .371 Age -5274480 7698.232 -.034 -.685 .4941 Admissions 1051997.499 794040.317 .066 1.325 .187 Competitive ness Rating Avg .841 .602 .072 1.397 .1641 Endowment 1990-1996 Tuition 1488229851 3310182059 .025 .450 .654 Discount Rag 1995 Table 36 provides the results of the 2000 regression equation for the BAII institutions with net tuition revenue as the dependent variable. The R-squared, .706, represents a substantial increase from the models for previous years. Again, the tuition discounting rate was not a Significant predictor of net tuition revenue. Enrollment, however, was significantly positively related to net tuition revenue and both Southern location and Midwestern location were significantly negatively related to net tuition revenue. Table 36. Regression Coefficients, 2000, Net Tuition Revenue as Dependent Variable, BAII Institutions N=167 Unstandardize Standardized t Sig. R2=.706 Coefficient Coefficien B Std. Error BeTal (Constant) -2221863.006 3419292. 1 88 -.650 .517 Religious -419754490 1057619771 -.019 -.397 .692 Affiliation Average 6733.120 445.370 .743 15.1 18 .000 Enrollment, 1990-2000 105 Table 36 (cont’d). Minori Percentage Avg -25493 94.342 2743153.849 -.045 -.929 .35 Institution Located in South -3132239.895 1 166860.108' -.158 -2.684I .008I Institution Located in Midwesq -2344823.916 954819.571 -. 145 -2.456 .015 Institutio Located ' Wes -1925540.691 1343266730 -.078 -l.433 .154 Coed 2209749895 1407050767 .072 1.570 .1181 Age -12264. 165 9806.172 -.061 -1.251 .213 Admissions Competitive ness Rating 2068836925 988338.275 .099 2.093 .03 81 Av Endowmen: 1990- 1 99 1.215 .765 .080 1.589 .114 Tuition Discount Rate 2000 -2226233.705 3424288372 -.034 -.650 .517 Finally, Table 37 provides a summary of all of the statistically Significant regression coefficients for the 3 year longitudinal analysis for both the BAI and BAII institutions. Table 37. Summary of Statistically Significant Regression Coefficients. BAI and BAII Institutions BAI Institutions The change in Net Tuition The change in Net Tuition Revenue Per Student Revenue associated with a 1 associated with a 1 percentage point increase in percentage point increase in Tuition Discounting*: Tuition Discounting*: 1990 $-143 $-118,573 1995 $-158 $-116,606 2000 $-3 86 $-397,841 106 Table 37 (cont’d). BAII Institutions The change in Net Tuition The change in Net Tuition Revenue Per Student Revenue associated with a 1 associated with a 1 percentage point increase in percentage point increase in Tuition Discounting*: Tuition Discounting*: 1990 Not Significant Not Significant 1995 -$47 Not Significant 2000 -$41 Not Significant *Significant at a minimum of the .05 level Regressions with Grouped Data Table 38 provides a summary of the regression results for the BAI and BAII institutions grouped. (Appendix F provides detailed statistical results for the regressions). The rationale for this analysis was that based on the T-tests, it appeared that the lower quality (selectivity) BAI institutions and the higher quality BAII institutions were beginning to exhibit the same behaviors in terms of tuition discounting. Therefore, it seemed logical to analyze regression results for the BAI and BAII institutions together while recognizing that overall the two groups of institutions remain quite distinct. It is interesting to note that for the grouped data there is a notable and significant negative relationship between financial health (as measured by net tuition revenue and net tuition revenue per student) and tuition discounting. It does appear that this relationship is becoming more pronounced over time, with financial health declining by increasing amounts over the 1990’s. 107 Table 38. Regression Results, BAI and BAH Institutions, Grouped*. F The change in Net Tuition Revenue Per Student associated with a 1 percentage point increase in Tuition DiscountingRate The change in Net Tuition Revenue associated with a 1 percentage point increase in Tuition Discounting Rate 1990 -$38 -$85,280 1995 -$61 -$84,164 2000 -$ 122 -$137,661 108 *Significant at a minimum of the .05 level. Chapter Five: Discussion and Conclusions This chapter begins with a summary and discussion of the findings of this study, followed by a discussion of the implications of tuition discounting for stakeholders such as administrators, trustees, and students (together with parents and counselors). I conclude with ideas for future research. Summary and Discussion of Findings Finding #1: Tuition Discounting is on the Rise Tuition discounting is on the rise at private, baccalaureate level institutions of higher education. Between 1990 and 2000, tuition discounting among the BAI institutions rose from 17.53% to 24.63%, with an average ll-year change of +7.1 percentage points. Among the BAH institutions, tuition discounting rose from 16.31% to 20.05%, with an average ll-year change of +7.02 percentage points. On average, both types of institutions increased their levels of tuition discounting over the 11-year period. Students at BAI and BAH institutions saw larger percentages of their tuitions “waived” through unfunded institutional scholarships (discounts) over that period of time. Finding #2: Tuition Discounting Does Vm Based on Institutional Type There were Significant differences among the tuition discounting practices at the different types of institutions. These significant differences are summarized in Table 39. 109 Table 39. Significant Mean Differences Among Institutional Types Variable BAI Tuition Discount Rate BAH Tuition Discount Rate Comparisons Comparisons Religious Affiliation Religious>Non-religious NA Enrollment Small>Large NA Location Midwest>South, West Midwest>West Age 3rd quarti1e>others Youngest>Oldest Admissions Moderate, Very Moderately Competitiveness Rating competitive>Most competitive>Minimally or competitive Non-cogetitive Academic Reputation Score Lower>Higher Higher>Lower Total Educational and Lower>Higher NA General Expenditures Endowment Lower>Higher Higher>Lower Gender NA NA Retention NA NA Minority Enrollment NA Lowest percentage minority>highest percentage minority F aculty-Student Ratio NA Higher>Lower Some interesting differences are notable among the BAI institutions. First, the institutions that appear to be discounting the most can generally be categorized as small and less prestigious based on the following variables: admissions competitiveness, academic reputation score, total expenditures, and enrollment. It may be that institutions with higher levels of prestige may not need to discount as much to attract students. Additionally, higher prestige institutions generally attract wealthier students who may not need a discount in order to enroll. The more prestigious institutions generally have larger endowments and do not need to rely on unfunded (simple) discounts—they can give students aid funded by their endowment. This is supported by the finding that, in this study, institutions with smaller endowments appear to have significantly higher tuition discounting rates than do institutions with larger endowments. 110 There were also significant mean differences among the BAI institutions based on religious affiliation. Overall, the religious affiliated institutions discounted more than the non-religious institutions. This result may be related to a set of circumstances that has affected religious-based instruction—particularly small religious-affiliated institutions. Townsley (2002) indicates that “this set of micro colleges hangs on by a thread,” and faces a great deal of competition (p. 210). Additionally, the financial support from the churches on which these institutions have historically relied very heavily has declined significantly. This set of circumstances may force them to rely more heavily on tuition discounting than their non-religious based counterparts. Among the BAI institutions there also appeared to be significant mean differences based on geographic location with Midwest institutions discounting more than other geographic areas. This result is likely due to the decline in the number of graduating high school seniors in the Midwest. Between 1972 and 1997, parts of the Midwest experienced declines in the number of high school graduates as high as 26% (Kodrzycki, 1999, p. 28). With fierce competition for students, Midwest institutions appear to have discounted more than other geographic areas. Finally, older institutions (Specifically those in the 3rd quartile—146 to 168 years) discounted more than institutions in the other age groups. This finding seems to be somewhat inconsistent with the prestige findings. One would assume that the younger, less established institutions would discount more than the older institutions. This expectation is not born out in this study. There were also significant mean differences among the BAH institutions (see Table 38). Although the BAII institutions generally would not be considered prestigious 111 (none had admissions competitiveness ratings higher that “moderately competitive”), the institutions with higher admissions competitiveness ratings within this institutional category discounted more than those with lower admissions competitiveness ratings. In contrast to the BAI institutions, the more “prestigious” BAII institutions discounted more than the less prestigious. Similarly, the more well endowed BAH institutions discounted more than the smaller endowed BAII institutions. One explanation for higher discounting among more prestigious BAII’S is that the upper tier institutions within the BAII category may be attempting to compete with the lower tier of the BAI college category, and to do so must offer Significant discounts. The minimally competitive and non-competitive institutions may not feel as much pressure to compete with the BAI institutions and may not feel inclined to discount on the basis of competition. There were also significant mean differences in tuition discounting rates among the BAH institutions based on geographic location. As with the BA] institutions, the BAII institutions in the Midwest discounted more than those in the West, apparently for the same reason—demographic Shifts related to the number of high school graduates. Among the BAH institutions there were significant mean differences based on minority enrollment. Institutions with lower percentages of minority students discounted more than those with higher percentages of minority students. This result is difficult to explain as one would expect that institutions committed to expanding diversity would be doing so via discounting. A similar interesting finding is that BAH institutions with higher faculty student ratios discounted more than those with lower faculty student ratios. This finding generally means that institutions with larger average class Sizes discounted more than institutions with smaller average class sizes. 112 Finding #3: Tuition Discounting Impacts Financial Health Table 32 in the previous chapter summarizes the findings for the regression equations, which measured the relationship between tuition discounting and institutional financial health. Recall that tuition discounting can and Should actually serve to protect net tuition revenue. That is, net tuition revenue should either increase or remain unchanged when regressed against tuition discounting. For the BAI institutions, however, tuition discounting appears to be significantly negatively related to financial health (with financial health defined as net tuition revenue per student). Tuition discounting is associated with declining net tuition revenue per student and this pattern has intensified over time. For the 1990 equation, each 1 percentage point increase in tuition discounting was associated with a $143 decrease in net tuition revenue per student. By 1995 the decrease in net tuition revenue per students was $158, and by 2000 it was $386. With net tuition revenue (total) as the independent (financial health) variable, a significantly negative relationship also exists between tuition discounting and financial health with a decrease in net tuition revenue of approximately $119,000, $177,000 and $398,000 related to each 1 percentage point increase in the tuition discounting rate for 1990, 1995, and 2000 respectively. The BAII institutions had Similar results. The decrease in net tuition revenue associated with a 1 percentage point increase in tuition discounting was $47 in 1995 and $41 in 1991. When net tuition revenue (total) is used as the independent variable, however, the relationship between tuition discounting and financial health was not significant. 113 Because the negative relationship exists, at least to some degree, between tuition discounting and financial health, institutions need to carefully examine their tuition discounting policies. There are several strategies to help institutions discount more effectively, or to reduce their levels of tuition discounting. Implications for Stakeholders The results of this study indicate that for private, baccalaureate level institutions of higher education, tuition discounting is on the rise, does vary based on institutional type, and does impact financial health negatively. These conclusions provide evidence that tuition discounting is a growing, dynamic practice that can have serious implications for the financial health of institutions. Of special interest is the apparent efforts of higher tier BAH colleges to place themselves through tuition discounting into a higher prestige category. This trend may mean that efforts to pursue prestige and status at these institutions may be stronger factors in affecting policy than financial health. It may be that a more complex institutional typology is needed, one with distinct markets for the top tier of BAI colleges, and a second market for lower-tier BAIS and top tier BAIIS, and a third market for the least competitive BAII colleges. Further, the consequences of tuition discounting may vary by these distinct markets with the most financially vulnerable offering the highest tuition discount rates. These results suggest that academic administrators need to carefully analyze their tuition discounting programs and be prepared to initiate strategic measures ranging from minor adjustments to major policy changes. First, administrators must start by evaluating 114 the effectiveness of their tuition discounting programs by looking at net tuition revenue (not gross tuition revenue) longitudinally. Too many institutions focus on gross tuition revenue, which does not give an accurate picture of the real flow of tuition dollars into the institution. For tuition discounting to be effective, net tuition revenue should increase over time. Many institutions set enrollment goals (for example 700 incoming freshmen students). However, these goals need to be set in conjunction with net tuition revenue goals (for example 700 new students paying an average of $15,000 each). If institutions find that their tuition discounting programs are not producing increases in net tuition revenue, they must work diligently to increase the effectiveness of their awarding strategy—that is, the determination of which students get discounts, and how much they get. This strategy requires an extensive analysis of historical data to determine apprOpriate award amounts (discounts) based on various student factors such as financial need, test scores, ethnicity, etc. A careful analysis of previous awarding practices and yields can illuminate the probability of a specific type of student enrolling at the institution if awarded a Specific discount. In The Effect of Financial Aid Policies on Admission and Enrollment, Scannell describes a method of creating yield tables (see Table 40) that display historical data for the institution. The percentages in the body of the table refer to the percentage of admitted students that actually enrolled at the institution for a specific year. For example, the first percentage (34%) represents the number of students in this particular need category ($6000-$7000) that had an ACT score of less than 20, received no discount, yet still enrolled. The 60% in the bottom right cell of the table means 60% of students with a 26 or 27 ACT and a $5000-$6000 discount K enrolled at the institution. Table 40 is an example of yield data based on quality (ACT 115 score), but Similar tables can be created based on gender, ethnicity, and a host of other demographic characteristics. Institutions can use this data to help determine discount amounts that have a high probability of influencing the student to enroll. These tables are particularly helpful because they “give the institution the opportunity to react strategically in the use of financial aid” (Scannell, 1992, p. 58). Table 40. Yield Table-Admitted Applicants with Financial Need of $6000—$7000 (Hypothetical Data). Discount—r $0 $1- $1001- $2001— $3001- $4001- $5001- ACT Score $1000 $2000 $3000 $4000 $5000 $6000 1 <20 34% 41% 42% 56% 61% 70% 77% 20-21 31% 41% 41% 55% 66% 61% 77% 22-23 30% 44% 42% 50% 58% 62% 79% 24-25 28% 29% 31% 41% 50% 51% 70% 26-27 29% 21% 29% 47% 49% 50% 60% Etc. In addition to increasing the effectiveness of tuition discounting, institutions can reduce their reliance on, or use of, tuition discounting by incorporating some strategic measures such as increasing their endowments, containing costs, improving marketing and recruiting, and collaborating. Ideally, institutions would like to have endowments large enough to support their entire financial aid budgets. However, only a few institutions (such as Oberlin or Macalester) are actually able to achieve this goal. “By not dipping into tuition to pay for financial aid. . . [institutions] can escape what [some call] a slippery slope in higher education: raising tuition in order to generate more revenue to support more financial aid” (Strosnider, 1998, p. A37). 116 Although many of the institutions in this study had sizeable endowments (creating large pools of funded scholarships), most had relatively low endowments. The average endowment for the BAII institutions was about $500,000, which generates only about $25,000 in scholarships annually. As institutions generate higher endowments, they will be able to replace unfunded discounts with discounts funded by endowment earnings. It is essential, therefore, that institutions work diligently to increase endowment levels. Too many institutions have a shortage of donated assets, particularly small, private institutions. According to Halstead (1991), “[t]here is no Shortage of prospective wealthy donors and alumni in the country, so the blame must be in part of private institutions for failing to fully tap this potential” (pp. 23, 26). Several institutions have been very successful in building large endowments dedicated to student financial aid. Washington and Lee University, for example, worked diligently to build an endowment large enough so that virtually all discounts were funded. Other institutions have undertaken an aggressive approach to building endowment dollars specifically designated to student aid although many of them are larger research universities such as Duke and Johns Hopkins (Strosnider, 1998, p. A37). In addition, institutions can seek annual gifts and donations intended to support financial aid programs. Institutions can also work to contain costs. When costs are controlled, tuition rates can also be controlled. When the tuition rate is under control, the level of tuition discounting can be decreased or at least not increased. If an institution is unable to control costs, tuition increases will be large, and so will the need for discounts. 117 Additionally, if costs are growing, institutions become even more reliant on tuition revenue———making enrollment instability a serious financial issue. Restructuring is a popular cost cutting measure at universities. Often, academic programs can be redesigned or restructured. Institutions can also look for ways to lower unit costs, to increase the productivity of individuals and departments. Although cost cutting measures may be appropriate at many institutions, they must ensure that they do not compromise quality. According to Jenkins (1991), “institutions should begin to develop marketing strategies. . .based on cost containment and educational value rather than manipulating price and calling it financial aid if they are to successfully meet consumer demand and public policy expectations” (p. 4). One way to accomplish this goal is to stress the positive aspects of the college, or factors that differentiate the college such as quality, high retention rates, successful programs, low faculty-student ratios, high graduation rates, or co-op programs, for example. This approach is particularly important for institutions trying to get away from competition based on price. Institutions need to focus on the aspects that make it unique and convey those attributes to potential students. They must market strategically in order to ensure that they do not lose market Share. There is increasing conversation in the admissions arena regarding student “fit”— specifically the fit between a student’s needs and desires and the offerings of a college or university (Hooker-Haring, 1998, p. 32). There is much diversity in higher education with respect of religious affiliation, gender affiliation, size, scope, and mission. Many students are lured into enrolling at institutions that are not a good fit simply because of the tuition discount offered. Parents and students are being encouraged to Shift their 118 focus from getting into a college to finding the best fit and staying there. Colleges can assist by providing accurate information to students and by creating a profile of their successful students and recruiting students that fit that profile. Many institutions (such as Baylor University) have developed models based on current student demographics that predict the probability that a specific type of potential student will enroll and be successful at the university. This approach improves retention and minimizes recruiting and financial aid costs (Gose, 1999, p. A49). Institutions also need to explore the possibility of expanding programs to non- traditional markets, for example, adult learners. This effort might be achieved by offering night or weekend programs. This approach is particularly strategic because it uses unoccupied facilities (Lapovsky & Loomis-Hubbell, 2001, p. 29). If non-traditional students can be successfully recruited they could fill empty seats and potentially “generate sufficient tuition income without resorting to a new round of discounting” (Discounting and its Discontents, 1994, p. 36). A final strategy that institutions can explore is that of collaboration. Some experts believe that for many small colleges and universities, “collaboration is key to survival.” Under this scenario, institutions that are geographically close, “overcome their natural impulse to complete, and work together” (Van der Worf, 1999, p. A33). Essentially, the colleges create a consortium in which students can take courses at any of the member institutions. This widely expands the number of programs and degrees available to students at each institution, which enhances enrollment and retention. In central Kansas, six institutions—Bethany, Bethel, McPherson, Sterling, Tabor, and Kansas Wesleyan— 119 have had great success in creating a consortium knows as the “Associated Colleges of Central Kansas.” In addition to college administrators, trustees play an important role in tuition discounting as well. The trustee’s role in tuition discounting is largely centered around tuition price. As price-setters, trustees determine half of the institution’s revenue picture—the other half being enrollment. If the price is too high, enrollment lags and must be bolstered by discounts thus reducing net tuition revenue. At a lower price, enrollment will be higher. Trustees must walk that fine line between a tuition rate that turns students away and a price that is so low that tuition revenue falls short of institutional needs. Some institutions have reduced tuition rates in an effort to enroll more students. Westminster College in Fulton, Missouri, cut tuition by 20% in 2003. Muskingum and Eureka Colleges have undertaken similar tuition reductions. In a sense, cutting price is essentially tuition discounting—just in an “across the board” fashion in which every student gets the same discount. Some institutions may find that a tuition cut with a reduction (or elimination) of tuition discounting may be preferable to having an artificially high tuition rate, coupled with deep discounts. My advice to students, parents, and high school counselors is quite simple: be aware of the practice of tuition discounting. Students need to understand that tuition discounting has become quite prevalent among many of the small, private, baccalaureate level institutions. Students and their parents will want to compare the net prices of the colleges that they are considering. If the tuition rate at College X is $30,000 and the “scholarship” (discount) being offered is $10,000, then the net price is $20,000. If the 120 tuition rate at College Y is $20,000 and the discount is $5,000, then the net price is $15,000. While College Y is ultimately less expensive, many families are more impressed with College X’s $10,000 “reward,” and may select College X on those grounds. That said, students Should avoid selecting a college based simply on price, and focus on “fit.” Students need to also consider attempting to negotiate their awards. While this may seem distasteful to many, the majority of institutions do negotiate. In many cases, the student’s high school counselor may be willing to negotiate on the student’s behalf. Either way, students need to be prepared to document award amounts from other institutions as a basis for their award appeal. Future Research Future research related to tuition discounting is vital in order to help improve the financial health and maintain the presence of the private baccalaureate sector of higher education in America. I would suggest the following four directions for future research. First, an in—depth analysis of the small private institutions that have closed over the past 20 years might provide important insights. Among these are Mt. Senario College in Wisconsin, Aquinas Colleges in Massachusetts, Westmar University in Iowa, and Notre Dame College in Missouri. It would be interesting to study these institutions to determine whether tuition discounting was a factor in their closing. There is some speculation that pricing and discounting problems have led to, or at least significantly contributed to, the demise of several small institutions. 121 Second, it would be helpful to study tuition discounting under the broader scope of the scholarship allowance discount as opposed to the Simple tuition discount used in this study. Although the data needed to calculate the scholarship allowance are not available via IPEDS, a smaller study of institutions could be undertaken to analyze this alternative measure of tuition discounting. The results could be Significantly different if this alternative measure were used. Third, while this study focused primarily on the financial impact of tuition discounting, a study of the ethics of tuition discounting is also warranted. Researchers and stakeholders need to be addressing whether it is appropriate for students and university officials to be haggling over the price of a university education the way one would for a used car. IS the process fair, since not all students know about discounts, and may not be savvy in negotiating an award amount? Finally, it would be interesting to determine whether tuition discounting is actually serving to expand diversity and/or allow more needy students to enroll. If not, researchers must start a dialogue about whether the practice makes sense. If tuition discounting does not improve financial health, expand diversity, or allow more needy students to enroll, one must wonder about the usefulness of this practice in small colleges and universities. 122 Appendix A: Variable Calculation Grids 1990-1996 IPEDS Current Funds Revenue Excel IPEDS IPEDS Calculated as by Source Col Row Column Tuition and Fees assessed to C A01 3 students Federal grants, contracts D A06 3 State grants, contracts E A07 3 Local grants, contracts F A08 3 Private gifts, grants, G A09 3 contracts Sales/Services of H A1 1 3 Educational Activities Aux Enterprises 1 A12 3 Other Sources-Total J A14 3 Independent Operations K A15 3 Current Funds Expenditures by Function Total Educational General L B 1 2 3 Expenditures Transfers (excluding auxiliary) Aux Enterprises M B l 3 3 Scholarships and Fellowships by Source Unrestricted Institutional N E06 1 Restricted Institutional O E06 2 Calculated Variables Tuition Discount Rate R N/C Operating Income Ratio S (C-N-O- +D+E+F+H+I- M+J+K)/(L-N- 0) Enrollment T Net Tuition Revenue U C-N Net Tuition Revenue Per V U/T Student Expenditures Per Student W (L+M)/T g 123 1997 IPEDS Private, N on-Profit, Revenue and Excel IPEDS IPEDS Calculated as: Investment Return and Student Aid Col Row Column Tuition and Fees, assessed to students C A01 3 Federal Grants and Contracts D A06 3 State Grants and Contracts E A07 3 Local Grants and Contracts F A08 3 Private Gifts, Grants, Contr, Cont from Affil G A09+A10 3 Sales/Services of Educational Activities H A12 3 Sales/Services of Auxiliary Enterprises (net of 1 A13 3 allowances to T and F) Revenue from hospital, indep ops, other source J A15+A14+ 3 A16 Student Aid: Pell Grants K AA01 NA Student Aid: Other Federal Grants L AA02 NA Student Aid: State Grants M AA03 NA Student Aid: Local Grants N AA04 NA Institutional Grants, Funded O AAOS NA Institutional Grants, Unfunded P AA06 1+2+3 Student Aid: Portion of Total Stu Aid applied Q AA08 1 to tuition and fees Student Aid: Portion of Total Stud Aid applied R AA09 1 to Aux Enterprises Private, Non-Profit, Expenses by Function Auxiliary Enterprises S B07 1 Hospital Services and Independent Operation T B10 and 1 B9 Total Expenses U B 12 1 includes aux Total Expenses-Depreciation V NA 5 Calculated Variables Tuition Discount Rate X P/(C+Q) Operating Income Ratio Y (C+Q-P- O+D+E+F+I+ R-S+J)/(U-S- P-O) Enrollment Z Net Tuition Revenue Per Student AA C/Z Expenditures Per Student AB U/Z 124 1998 IPEDS Private, Non-Profit, Revenue and Excel IPEDS IPEDS Calculated Investment Return Col Row Colum as: n Total Tuition and Fees, Assessed to C A01 3 students Total Federal Grants and Contracts D A06 3 Total State Grants and Contracts E A07 3 Total Local Grants and Contracts F A08 3 Total Private Gifts, Grants, Contracts G A09 3 Total Contributions from Affiliated H A10 3 Entities Total Sales/Services of Educational 1 A12 3 Activities Total Sales/Services of Auxiliary J A13 3 Enterprises Total Independent Operations Revenue K A15 3 Total Other Revenue L A16 3 Total Pell Grants M AA01 NA Total Other Federal Grants N AA02 NA Total State Grants 0 AA03 NA Total Local Grants P AA04 NA Total Institutional Grants, Funded Q AA05 NA Total Institutional Grants, Unfunded R AA06 1+2+3 Total Allowances Applied to Tuition and S AA09 NA Fees Total Allowances Applied to Aux T AA10’ NA Enterprises Private, Non—Profit, Expenses by Function Auxiliary Enterprises-Total U B07 1 Independent Operation Expenditures V B 10 1 Total Expenses-Total (includes auxiliary) W 812 1 Total Expenses-Depreciation X B 12 5 Calculated Variables Tuition Discount Rate AB R/(C+S) Operating Income Ratio AC (C+S-R— Q+D+E+F+ I+K+L+J+T -U)/(W-U- R-Q) Enrollment AD Net Tuition Revenue Per Student AE C/AD Expenditures Per Student AF W/AD 125 1999 IPEDS Private, Non-Profit, Revenue and Excel IPEDS IPEDS Calculated as: Investment Return Col Row Column Total Tuition and Fees C A01 3 Total Federal Grants and Contracts D A06 3 Total State Grants and Contracts E A07 3 Total Local Grants and Contracts F A08 3 Total Private Gifts, Grants, Contracts G A09 3 Total Contributions from Affiliated H A10 3 Entities Total Sales/Services of Educational 1 A12 3 Activities Total Sales/Services of Auxiliary J A13 3 Enterprises Total Independent Operations Revenue K A15 3 Total Other Revenue L A16 3 Total Pell Grants M AA01 NA Total Other Federal Grants N AA02 NA Total State Grants 0 AA03 NA Total Local Grants P AAO4 NA Total Institutional Grants, Funded Q AA05 NA Total Institutional Grants, Unfunded R AA06 1+2+3 Total Allowances Applied to Tuition S AA08 NA and Fees Total Allowances Applied to Aux T AA09 NA Enterprises Private, Non-Profit, Expenses Auxiliary Enterprises-Total U B07 1 Independent Operation Expenditures V B 10 1 Total Expenses-Total (includes W B 12 1 auxiliary) Total Expenses-Depreciation X B 12 5 Calculated Variables Tuition Discount Rate AB R/(C+S) Operating Income Ratio AC (C+S-R-Q+ D+E+ F+I+K+ L+J+T- U) / (W-U-R-Q) Enrollment AD Net Tuition Revenue Per Student AE C/AD Expenditures Per Student AF W/AD 126 2000 IPEDS Expenditures Per Student Private, Non-Profit, Revenue and Excel IPEDS Row Calculated as: Investment Return Col Total Tuition and Fees C D01 Total Federal Grants and Contracts D D05 Total State Grants and Contracts E D06 Total Local Grants and Contracts F D07 Total Private Gifts, Grants, Contracts G D08 Total Contributions from Affiliated H D09 Entities Total Sales/Services of Educational 1 D1 1 Activities Total Sales/Services of Auxiliary D12 Enterprises Total Independent Operations Revenue K D14 Total Other Revenue L D15 Student Grants Total Pell Grants M C01 Total Other Federal Grants N C02 Total State Grants 0 C03 Total Local Grants P C04 Total Institutional Grants, Funded Q C05 Total Institutional Grants, Unfunded R C06 Total Allowances Applied to Tuition and S C08 Fees Total Allowances Applied to Aux T C09 Enterprises Private, Non-Profit, Expenses by Function - U E07 Auxiliary Enterprises-Total Independent Operation Expenditures V E10 excluding auxiliary) TOtal Expenses-Total W E12 Ltd Expenses-Depreciation X E15 Calculated Variables Eon Discount Rate AB R/(C+S) Operating Income Ratio AC (C+S-R- Q+D+E+F+I+K+L+J+T- U)/(W-U-R-Q) Enrollment AD Net Tuition Revenue Per Student AE C/AD AF W/AD 127 Appendix B: Variables Variable Name Variable values/calculations: Data Source Age of Institution Peterson’s Religious Affiliation 0=No 1=YES Peterson’s Geographic Location N (North) =PA, RI, CT, NY, IPEDS DC, NH, MA, MD, VT, NJ, ME, DE S (South) =GA, LA, VA, FL, AL, NC, SC, WV, KY, TN, MS, AR M (Midwest)=MI, NE, IL, IA, OH, MO, MN, KS, SD, ND, WI, IN W (West) =AK, HI, CA, CO, TX, NV, AZ, NM, ID, OR, WA, MT, OK, UT, WY Male Affiliated 0=NO Peterson’s 1=YES Female Affiliated 0=NO Peterson’s 1=YES Co-ed 0=NO Peterson’s 1=YES Enrollment Total Undergraduate Enrollment; IPEDS Calculated each year between 1990 and 2000 wage Enrollment Average enrollment, 1990-2000 Percentage of Minority Enrollment/Total IPEDS Students Minority Enrollment; Calculated each year between 1990 and 2000 Average Percentage Average Minority Student IPEDS 0f Student Minority, Enrollment between 1990 and @4000 2000 Endowment Value Endowment Value; Calculated IPEDS each year between 1990 and 1996 Average endowment, Average Endowment between IPEDS _19LO-1996 1990 and 1996 Admissions 1=noncompetitive Peterson’s competitiveness 2=minimally difficult @g 3=moderately difficult 128 EXpenditures Per 1 Student 1990 and 2000 4=very difficult 5=most difficult Percentage of Peterson’s freshman returning for 2nd year Total Educational and Total Educational and General IPEDS General Expenditures; Calculated each Expenditures year between 1990 and 2000 Average Total Average Total Educational and IPEDS Educational and General Exp., 1990-2000 General Exp., 1990- 2000 Academic Reputation Scale of 1-5, 5 is highest US. News and Score World Report Student-to- Number of students per faculty IPEDS undergraduate faculty member; Calculated each year ratio between 1990 and 2000 Average student-to- IPEDS faculty ratio, 1990- 1 999 Tuition Discounting Unfunded institutional student IPEDS Rate aid/ gross tuition and fees; Calculated each year between 1990 and 2000 Change in tuition Tuition discount rate in 2000 IPEDS discounting rate minus tuition discount rate in @2000 1990 Average tuition Mean of the tuition discounting IPEDS discounting rate, rates, 1990-2000 @2000 Operating Income Calculated each year between IPEDS Rxatio 1990 and 2000 Net Tuition Revenue Calculated each year between Per Student 1990 and 2000 Calculated each year between 129 Appendix C: Descriptive Statistics Descriptive Statistics, BAI Institutions Minimum Maximum Mean Standard Dev _Age 35 258 141.28 44.104 Religious Affiliation 0 1 0.48 0.502 Coed O 1 0.85 0.359 Institution Located in North 0 1 0.43 0.496 Institution Located in Midwest 0 l 0.28 0.453 Institution Located in West 0 1 0.12 0.322 Institution Located in South 0 1 0.18 0.382 Average Enrollment, 1990-2000 279.9091 3414.636 1561.47 665.856 Admissions Competitiveness Rating 3 5 3.63 0.673 Academic Reputation Score 2 4.8 3.07 0.740 Faculty Student Ratio Avg 8.532569 24.78351 13.75 2.968 % students returning for 2nd year 40 98 85.38 8.182 Avg. Total EG Expenditures, 1990-2000 6702900 98135063 3610068085 19094119024 Avg Endowment, 1990-1996 51402.14 22284610 375000969 3847511884 Simple Tuition Discount 90 0 0.51 0.22 0.078 Skye Tuition Discount 91 0.09 0.55 0.24 0.075 Simple Tuition Discount 92 0.1 0.57 0.26 0.078 Simple Tuition Discount 93 0.08 0.57 0.29 0.085 Simple Tuition Discount 94 0.11 0.59 0.30 0.092 Simple Tuition Discount 95 0.12 0.65 0.31 0.094 Simple Tuition Discount 96 0.1 0.57 0.32 0.096 Simple Tuition Discount 97 0 0.73 0.34 0.108 Simple Tuition Discount 98 0 0.63 0.32 0.129 Simple Tuition Discount 99 0.17 0.62 0.35 0.098 Simple Tuition Discount 00 0.09 0.65 0.35 0.100 Operating Income Ratio 90 0.26 1 0.75 0.134 Opgating Income Ratio 91 0.33 1.02 0.75 0.130 Operflng Income Ratio 92 0.3 0.99 0.74 0.131 Operating Income Ratio 93 0.3 1.02 0.74 0.135 Operating Income Ratio 94 0.3 1.04 0.74 0.131 Operating Income Ratio 95 0.31 1.02 0.75 0.130 Operatinglncome Ratio 96 0.33 1.19 0.75 0.143 Operating Income Ratio 97 0.346458 3.55418 1.00 0.373 Operating Income Ratio 98 0.27 3.19 1.02 0.379 Operating Income Ratio 99 0.17 3 1.02 0.377 Operating Income Ratio 00 0.12 2.17 1.02 0.369 Net Tuition Revenue Per Student 90 3456.398 27383.27 9297.14 3199.659 Net Tuition Revenue Per Student 91 3527.735 32606.24 9948.27 3739.055 Net Tuition Revenue Per Student 92 3542.881 19384.65 10259.31 3341.726 Net Tuition Revenue Per Student 93 3608.78 20293.43 10516.34 3421.111 Net Tuition Revenue Per Student 94 4065.98 25990.32 11115.20 4054.576 130 Net Tuition Revenue Per Student 95 4250.082 21882.72 11324.82 3715.902 Net Tuition Revenue Per Student 96 4958.202 21760.13 11583.73 3840.363 Net Tuition Revenue Per Student 97 4399.644 24422.79 11861.36 4416.175 Net Tuition Revenue Per Student 98 4426.381 25241.34 12285.46 4683.246 Net Tuition Revenue Per Student 99 3907.13 28067.99 12795.51 4741.338 Net Tuition Revenue Per Student 00 3895.026 59150.8 13529.12 6509.728 Expenditures Per Student 90 8890.818 45402.68 20680.08 6929.718 Expenditures Per Student 91 9597.474 47921.91 22049.69 7006.201 Expenditures Per Student 92 9864.046 44814.01 23646.38 7107.710 Expenditures Per Student 93 10759.3 40435.9 24954.45 7121.295 Expenditures Per Student 94 1 1535.53 49826.25 26229.62 7929.817 Expenditures Per Student 95 12403.37 49] 18.45 27047.58 7703.432 Expenditures Per Student 96 12940.03 52687.37 28651.57 8255.830 Expenditures Per Student 97 10244.31 48928.82 24889.90 8182.501 Expenditures Per Student 98 10829.97 53194.15 26061.95 8680.208 Expenditures Per Student 99 11616.13 54509.55 27462.61 9102.226 Expenditures Per Student 00 12911.61 83184.58 29663.82 11204365 131 Descriptive Statistics, BAII Institutions Standard Minimum Maximum Mean Dev _Age 27 213 103.54 39.818 Reliflis Affiliation O 1 0.84 0.366 Coed 0 l 0.91 0.287 Institution Located in North 0 1 0.28 0.451 Institution Located in Midwest 0 1 0.40 0.490 Institution Located in West 0 l 0.13 0.333 Institution Located in South 0 1 0.20 0.399 Average Enrolhnent, 1990-2000 347 6449.091 1366.51 877.491 Admissions Competitiveness Rating 1 3 2.87 0.383 Academic Reputation Score 2 3.9 2.87 0.394 Faculty Student Ratio Average 12.19367 125.2002 22.79 11.365 % students returning for 2nd year 44 94 71.68 10.064 152130796 Avg. Total EG Expenditures, 1990-2000 3237693 82204704 5 9240062131 Avg Endowment, 1990-1996 0 2743288 486524.10 519199.990 Simple Tuition Discount 90 0 0.46 0.19 0.093 Simple Tuition Discount 91 0 0.45 0.20 0.096 Simple Tuition Discount 92 0 0.47 0.21 0.093 Simple Tuition Discount 93 0 0.46 0.22 0.099 Simple Tuition Discount 94 0 0.47 0.23 0.101 Simple Tuition Discount 95 0 0.47 0.24 0.100 Simple Tuition Discount 96 0 0.49 0.25 0.109 Simple Tuition Discount 97 0 0.85 0.26 0.138 Simple Tuition Discount 98 0 0.66 0.27 0.138 Simple Tuition Discount 99 0 0.69 0.30 0.134 Simple Tuition Discount 00 0 0.56 0.29 0.121 Operating Income Ratio 90 0.46 1.58 0.81 0.148 Operating Income Ratio 91 0.39 1.35 0.82 0.149 Operating Income Ratio 92 0.29 1.22 0.83 0.132 Operating Income Ratio 93 0.45 1.18 0.84 0.119 Operating Income Ratio 94 0.44 1.53 0.85 0.138 Operating Income Ratio 95 0.45 1.37 0.85 0.129 Operating Income Ratio 96 0.52 1.46 0.85 0.137 Operating Income Ratio 97 0.543815 2.042066 1.10 0.253 Operating Income Ratio 98 0.34 2.52 1.10 0.327 Operatipg Income Ratio 99 0.43 2.28 1.11 0.310 Operatflg Income Ratio 00 0.36 2.23 1.13 0.306 Net Tuition Revenue Per Student 90 1274.56 1 1816.2 4656.56 1646.541 Net Tuition Revenue Per Student 91 1439.962 12465.36 5058.91 1809.739 Net Tuition Revenue Per Student 92 1372.128 13543.52 5357.35 1906.329 Net Tuition Revenue Per Student 93 1599.247 15907.31 5668.94 1972.761 Net Tuition Revenue Per Student 94 1775.039 17559.52 6012.52 1955.863 Lift Tuition Revenue Per Student 95 1715.743 18186.28 6348.57 2088.044 132 Net Tuition Revenue Per Student 96 1928.945 14461.57 6693.84 2022.360 Net Tuition Revenue Per Student 97 1901.629 17740.04 6664.55 2250.535 Net Tuition Revenue Per Student 98 1819.277 18387.24 6934.21 2332.883 Net Tuition Revenue Per Student 99 1734.101 20434.71 7261.24 2403.270 Net Tuition Revenue Per Student 00 2275.568 20940 7686.44 2649.860 Expenditures Per Student 90 3210.174 19607.34 10502.22 3425.626 Expenditures Per Student 91 3168.666 23759.95 11 190.21 3775.196 Expenditures Per Student 92 3273.94 22556.94 11929.77 4007.951 Expenditures Per Student 93 3417.469 24543.46 12428.64 4143.370 Expenditures Per Student 94 3163.472 25214.33 13015.00 4282.813 Expenditures Per Student 95 3649.21 26353.74 13791.31 4313.046 Expenditures Per Student 96 3313.675 26559.9 14591.66 4389.071 Expenditures Per Student 97 2828.965 22600.1 12209.66 3557.874 Expenditures Per Student 98 2678.044 23327.08 12752.51 3720.089 Expenditures Per Student 99 2639.333 25633.92 13483.83 3886.855 Expenditures Per Student 00 3441.587 33769.85 14300.10 4416.749 133 Appendix D: List of Institutions by State Institution Name State Carnegie Code FAULKNER UNIVERSITY AL BAH GRAND CANYON UNIVERSITY AZ BAH HENDRIX COLLEGE AR BAI JOHN BROWN UNIVERSITY AR BAII UNIVERSITY OF THE OZARKS AR BAH WILLIAMS BAPTIST COLLEGE AR BAH CONCORDIA UNIVERSITY CA BAH THE MASTER'S COLLEGE AND SEMINARY CA BAII MH..LS COLLEGE CA BAI OCCIDENTAL COLLEGE CA BAI PITZER COLLEGE CA BAI POMONA COLLEGE CA BAI SCRIPPS COLLEGE CA BAI SIMPSON COLLEGE CA BAH WIHTTIER COLLEGE CA BAI COLORADO COLLEGE CO BAI CONNECTICUT COLLEGE CT BAI TRINITY COLLEGE CT BAI WESLEYAN UNIVERSITY CT BAI ECKERD COLLEGE FL BAI FLORIDA SOUTHERN COLLEGE FL BAH PALM BEACH ATLANTIC COLLEGE-WEST FL BAH PALM BEACH AGNES SCOTT COLLEGE GA BAI MOREHOUSE COLLEGE GA BAI SPELMAN COLLEGE GA BAI ALBERTSON COLLEGE OF IDAHO ID BAH AUGUSTANA COLLEGE IL BAI BARAT COLLEGE IL BAH EUREKA COLLEGE IL BAH GREENVILLE COLLEGE IL BAH LAKE FOREST COLLEGE IL BAI MCKENDREE COLLEGE IL BAH MILLIKIN UNIVERSITY IL BAH MONMOUTH COLLEGE IL BAI NORTH PARK UNIVERSITY IL BAII QUINCY UNIVERSITY IL BAH ANDERSON UNIVERSITY IN BAH BETHEL COLLEGE IN BAH 134 FRANKLIN COLLEGE OF INDIANA IN BAI GOSHEN COLLEGE IN BAI GRACE COLLEGE AND THEOLOGICAL IN BAII SEMINARY HANOVER COLLEGE IN BAI MANCHESTER COLLEGE 1N BAH MARIAN COLLEGE IN BAH SAINT J OSEPHS COLLEGE IN BAH SAN T MARY-OF-THE-WOODS COLLEGE IN BAII SAINT MARY'S COLLEGE IN BAII WABASH COLLEGE IN BAI BRIAR CLIFF UNIVERSITY IA BAH COE COLLEGE IA BAI CORNELL COLLEGE IA BAI DORDT COLLEGE IA BAH IOWA WESLEYAN COLLEGE IA BAH LORAS COLLEGE IA BAH LUTHER COLLEGE LA BAI MORNINGSIDE COLLEGE IA BAII MOUNT MERCY COLLEGE IA BAH MOUNT ST CLARE COLLEGE IA BAH NORTHWESTERN COLLEGE IA BAH SIMPSON COLLEGE IA BAH WARTBURG COLLEGE IA BAI WILLIAM PENN UNIVERSITY IA BAII BENEDICTINE COLLEGE KS BAH BETHAN Y COLLEGE KS BAH NEWMAN UNIVERSITY KS BAH OTTAWA UNIVERSITY KS BAH SAINT MARY COLLEGE KS BAH TABOR COLLEGE KS BAH BRESCIA UNIVERSITY KY BAH CAMPBELLSVILLE UNIVERSITY KY BAH GEORGETOWN COLLEGE KY BAI KENTUCKY WESLEYAN COLLEGE KY BAH KENTUCKY CHRISTIAN COLLEGE KY BAH PIKEVILLE COLLEGE KY BAII TRANSYLVANIA UNIVERSITY KY BAI BATES COLLEGE ME BAI BOWDOIN COLLEGE ME BAI COLBY COLLEGE ME BAI UNITY COLLEGE ME BAH ST JOHN'S COLLEGE MD BAI WESTERN MARYLAND COLLEGE MD BAI 135 AMHERST COLLEGE MA BAI GORDON COLLEGE MA BAI HAMPSI-HRE COLLEGE MA BAI COLLEGE OF THE HOLY CROSS MA BAI LASELL COLLEGE MA BAH MERRIMACK COLLEGE MA BAH MOUNT HOLYOKE COLLEGE MA BAI MOUNT HDA COLLEGE MA BAH COLLEGE OF OUR LADY OF THE ELMS MA BAH REGIS COLLEGE MA BAH SIMONS ROCK COLLEGE OF BARD MA BAI SMITH COLLEGE MA BAI WELLESLEY COLLEGE MA BAI WHEATON COLLEGE MA BAI WILLIAMS COLLEGE MA BAI ADRIAN COLLEGE MI BAH ALBION COLLEGE MI BAI HOPE COLLEGE MI BAI SIENA HEIGHTS UNIVERSITY MI BAH SPRING ARBOR UNIVERSITY MI BAH WILLLAM TYNDALE COLLEGE MI BAH AUGSBURG COLLEGE W BAII BETHEL COLLEGE MN BAH CARLETON COLLEGE MN BAI CONCORDIA COLLEGE AT MOORHEAD MN BAI GUSTAVUS ADOLPHUS COLLEGE MN BAI HAMLINE UNIVERSITY MN BAI MACALESTER COLLEGE MN BAI NORTHWESTERN COLLEGE MN BAH COLLEGE OF SAINT BENEDICT MN BAI SAINT JOHNS UNIVERSITY MN BAI SAINT OLAF COLLEGE MN BAI CROWN COLLEGE MN BAH MILLSAPS COLLEGE MS BAI COLUMBIA COLLEGE MO BAH MISSOURI BAPTIST COLLEGE MO BAH STEPHENS COLLEGE MO BAH WESTMINSTER COLLEGE MO BAI WILLIAM J EWELL COLLEGE MO BAI WILLIAM WOODS UNIVERSITY MO BAH CARROLL COLLEGE MT BAII UNIVERSITY OF GREAT FALLS MT BAH ROCKY MOUNTAIN COLLEGE MT BAII CONCORDIA UNIVERSITY NE BAH 136 HASTINGS COLLEGE NE BAI NEBRASKA WESLEYAN UNIVERSITY NE BAI COLLEGE OF SAINT MARY NE BAH COLBY-SAWYER COLLEGE NH BAH NEW ENGLAND COLLEGE NH BAH SAH\IT AN SELM COLLEGE NH BAII CALDWELL COLLEGE NJ BAH CENTENARY COLLEGE NJ BAH DREW UNIVERSITY NJ BAI FELICIAN COLLEGE NJ BAH COLLEGE OF SAINT ELIZABETH NJ BAH BARNARD COLLEGE NY BAI COLGATE UNIVERSITY NY BAI CONCORDIA COLLEGE NY BAH DAEMEN COLLEGE NY BAH HAMILTON COLLEGE NY BAI HARTWICK COLLEGE NY BAI I-HLBERT COLLEGE NY BAH HOBART WILLIAM SMITH COLLEGES NY BAI HOUGHTON COLLEGE NY BAI LE MOYNE COLLEGE NY BAH MANHATTANVILLE COLLEGE NY BAI MARYMOUNT COLLEGE NY BAH MARYMOUNT MANHATTAN COLLEGE NY BAH MEDAILLE COLLEGE NY BAH COLLEGE OF MOUNT SAINT VINCENT NY BAII NYACK COLLEGE NY BAII ROBERTS WESLEYAN COLLEGE NY BAH ST FRANCIS COLLEGE NY BAII ST LAWRENCE UNIVERSITY NY BAI SAINT THOMAS AQUINAS COLLEGE NY BAH SARAH LAWRENCE COLLEGE NY BAI SIENA COLLEGE NY BAI SKIDMORE COLLEGE NY BAI SAINT J OSEPHS COLLEGE-MAIN CAMPUS NY BAII TOURO COLLEGE NY BAII UNION COLLEGE NY BAI UTICA COLLEGE OF SYRACUSE UNIVERSITY NY BAH WELLS COLLEGE NY BAI BELMONT ABBEY COLLEGE NC BAH DAVIDSON COLLEGE NC BAI GREENSBORO COLLEGE NC BAII METHODIST COLLEGE NC BAH MONTREAT COLLEGE NC BAH 137 SAINT AUGUSTINES COLLEGE NC BAH ST ANDREWS PRESBYTERIAN COLLEGE NC BAI ANTIOCH COLLEGE OH BAI CEDARVILLE UNIVERSITY OH BAH DEFIANCE COLLEGE OH BAH DENISON UNIVERSITY OH BAI THE UNIVERSITY OF FINDLAY OH BAH HEIDELBERG COLLEGE OH BAH HIRAM COLLEGE OH BAI KENYON COLLEGE OH BAI LOURDES COLLEGE OH BAH MARIETTA COLLEGE OH BAH MOUNT UNION COLLEGE OH BAH MUSKINGUM COLLEGE OH BAH NOTRE DAME COLLEGE OF OHIO OH BAII OHIO DOMINICAN COLLEGE OH BAH OIHO NORTHERN UNIVERSITY OH BAH OI~HO WESLEYAN UNIVERSITY OH BAI OTTERBEIN COLLEGE OH BAH UNIVERSITY OF RIO GRANDE OH BAH URSULINE COLLEGE OH BAH WITTENBERG UNIVERSITY OH BAI COLLEGE OF WOOSTER OH BAI OKLAHOMA WESLEYAN UNIVERSITY OK BAII CONCORDIA UNIVERSITY OR BAH GEORGE FOX UNIVERSITY OR BAH LEWIS & CLARK COLLEGE OR BAI NORTHWEST CHRISTIAN COLLEGE OR BAH REED COLLEGE OR BAI WESTERN BAPTIST COLLEGE OR BAH WILLAMETTE UNIVERSITY OR BAI ALBRIGHT COLLEGE PA BAI ALLEGHENY COLLEGE PA BAI DESALES UNIVERSITY PA BAH ALVERNIA COLLEGE PA BAH BRYN MAWR COLLEGE PA BAI BUCKNELL UNIVERSITY PA BAI CEDAR CREST COLLEGE PA BAH CHATHAM COLLEGE PA BAI DELAWARE VALLEY COLLEGE PA BAH ELIZABETHTOWN COLLEGE PA BAH FRANKLIN AND MARSHALL COLLEGE PA BAI GENEVA COLLEGE PA BAH GETTYSBURG COLLEGE PA BAI 138 HAVERFORD COLLEGE PA BAI JUNIATA COLLEGE PA BAI KINGS COLLEGE PA BAH LAFAYETTE COLLEGE PA BAI LEBANON VALLEY COLLEGE PA BAH LYCOMING COLLEGE PA BAH MERCYHURST COLLEGE PA BAH MESSIAH COLLEGE PA BAH MORAVIAN COLLEGE AND THEOLOGICAL PA BAI SEMINARY MUHLENBERG COLLEGE PA BAI NEUMANN COLLEGE PA BAH ROSEMONT COLLEGE PA BAH SETON HHL COLLEGE PA BAH SUSQUEHANNA UNIVERSITY PA BAH SWARTHMORE COLLEGE PA BAI THIEL COLLEGE PA BAH URSINUS COLLEGE PA BAI WASI-HNGTON & JEFFERSON COLLEGE PA BAI WESTMINSTER COLLEGE PA BAI WILSON COLLEGE PA BAH YORK COLLEGE PENNSYLVANIA PA BAII ROGER WILLIAMS UNIVERSITY RI BAH COKER COLLEGE SC BAH ERSKINE COLLEGE AND SEMINARY SC BAI FURMAN UNIVERSITY SC BAI MORRIS COLLEGE SC BAH NEWBERRY COLLEGE SC BAII PRESBYTERIAN COLLEGE SC BAI AUGUSTANA COLLEGE SD BAH UNIVERSITY OF SIOUX FALLS SD BAH BRYAN COLLEGE TN BAH CUMBERLAND UNIVERSITY TN BAH FREED-HARDEMAN UNIVERSITY TN BAII KING COLLEGE TN BAII LAMBUTH UNIVERSITY TN BAH MARYVILLE COLLEGE TN BAH UNIVERSITY OF THE SOUTH TN BAI TENNESSEE WESLEYAN COLLEGE TN BAH CONCORDIA UNIVERSITY AT AUSTIN TX BAII UNIVERSITY OF DALLAS TX BAI EAST TEXAS BAPTIST UNIVERSITY TX BAII HOWARD PAYNE UNIVERSITY TX BAII HUSTON-TILLOTSON COLLEGE TX BAH 139 LETOURNEAU UNIVERSITY TX BAH MCMURRY UNIVERSITY TX BAH SOUTHWESTERN UNIVERSITY TX BAI TEXAS LUTHERAN UNIVERSITY TX BAH WAYLAND BAPTIST UNIVERSITY TX BAH BENNINGTON COLLEGE VT BAI MARLBORO COLLEGE VT BAI MIDDLEBURY COLLEGE VT BAI BLUEFIELD COLLEGE VA BAH BRIDGEWATER COLLEGE VA BAH EMORY AND HENRY COLLEGE VA BAH EASTERN MENNONITE UNIVERSITY VA BAH FERRUM COLLEGE VA BAH HAMPDEN-SYDNEY COLLEGE VA BAI HOLLINS UNIVERSITY VA BAI RANDOLPH-MACON COLLEGE VA BAI ROANOKE COLLEGE VA BAH SWEET BRIAR COLLEGE VA BAI VIRGINIA WESLEYAN COLLEGE VA BAI WASHINGTON AND LEE UNIVERSITY VA BAI UNIVERSITY OF PUGET SOUND WA BAI WHITMAN COLLEGE WA BAI ALDERSON BROADDUS COLLEGE WV BAH BETHANY COLLEGE WV BAI BELOIT COLLEGE WI BAI CONCORDIA UNIVERSITY-WISCONSIN WI BAH LAWRENCE UNIVERSITY WI BAI MOUNT MARY COLLEGE WI BAH MOUNT SENARIO COLLEGE WI BAH NORTHLAND COLLEGE WI BAH WISCONSH\1 LUTHERAN COLLEGE WI BAH 140 Appendix E: Correlations for Institutional Quality Variables Correlations, BAI Institutions Academic Faculty % Avg. Total EG Avg Reputation Student students Expenditures, 1990- Endowment, Score Ratio returning 2000 1990-1996 Average for 2nd year Academic Pearson 1.00 -0.53 0.67 0.77 0.76 Reputation Score Correlation Sig. (2- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 tailed) N 120.00 120.00 120.00 120.00 120.00 Faculty Student Pearson -0.53 1.00 -0.24 -0.30 -0.45 Ratio Average Correlation Sig. (2- 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 tailed) N 120.00 120.00 120.00 120.00 120.00 % students Pearson 0.67 -0.24 1.00 0.62 0.51 returning for 2nd Correlation year Sig. (2- 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 tailed) N 120.00 120.00 120.00 120.00 120.00 Avg. Total EG Pearson 0.77 -0.30 0.62 1.00 0.69 Expenditures, Correlation 1990-2000 Sig. (2- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 tailed) N 120.00 120.00 120.00 120.00 120.00 Avg Endowment, Pearson 0.76 -045 0.51 0.69 1.00 1990- 1996 Correlation Sig. (2- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 tailed) N 120.00 120.00 120.00 120.00 120.00 141 Correlations, BAII Institutions Academic Faculty % Avg. Total Avg Reputation Student students EG Endowment, Score Ratio returning Expenditures, 1990-1996 Average for 2nd 1990-2000 year Academic Pearson 1.00 -0.21 0.43 0.39 0.50 Reputation Correlation Score Sig. (2- 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 tailed) N 167.00 167.00 167.00 167.00 167.00 Faculty Pearson -0.21 1.00 -0. 1 0 -0.02 -0. 18 Student Ratio Correlation Average Sig. (2- 0.01 0.22 0.76 0.02 tailed) N 167.00 167.00 167.00 167.00 167.00 % students Pearson 0.43 -0.10 1.00 0.44 0.23 returning for Correlation 2nd year Sig. (2- 0.00 0.22 0.00 0.00 tailed) N 167.00 167.00 167.00 167.00 167.00 Avg. Total Pearson 0.39 -002 0.44 1.00 0.32 EG Correlation Expenditures, 1990-2000 Sig. (2- 0.00 0.76 0.00 0.00 tailed) N 167.00 167.00 167.00 167.00 167.00 Avg Pearson 0.50 -0.18 0.23 0.32 1.00 Endowment, Correlation 1990-1996 Sig. (2- 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 tailed) N 167.00 167.00 167.00 167.00 167.00 142 Appendix F: Regression Results, Grouped Data Coefficients N=287 Unstandardiz Standardize t Sig. R2=.561 d Coefficient Coefficien 1 Eonstant) 1831.352 1136.969 1.611 .108 Religiou -2369.649 350.911 -.329 -6753 .000 Afiiliatioj Average -.240 .185 -.058' -1.296 .196 Enrolhnent, 1990-2000 Minority -2332.616 1086.711 -.094l -2.146 .033 Percentage Avg Institution -828.310 427.736 -.098 -1.936 .054 Locatedin South Institution -213.001 364.206 -.031 -.585 .559 Locatedin Midwest Institution -42.806 479.621 -.004 -.089 .929 Locatedin West Coed 413.771 457.503 .038' .9041 .367 Age 12.917 3.31 .177 3.89 .000 Admission 1822.979 299.296 .352 6.091 .000 Competitiven ess Ratin Av 1.481E-04 .000 .133 2.263 .024 Endowment 1990-1996 Tuition ~3789.153 1697.023 -.101 -2.233 .026 Discount Rate 1990 a Dependent Variable: NTRPS9O 143 Coefficients N=287 Unstandardize‘csil Standardize t Sig. R2=.615 Coefficien Coefficien 1 (Constant) 1933.048 1248.508 1.548 .123 Religiou -2159.097 376.117 -.263 -5.740 .000 Affiliation Average -.307 .197 -.06 -1.561 .120 Enrollment, 1990-2000 Minority -2636.030 1170.135 -.095 -2.253 .025 Percentage Avg Institution -1035.9l9 460.380 -.10 -2.250 .025 Located in South Institution -373.441 385.539 -.048 -.969 .334 Locatedin Midwest Institution 506.909 507.003 .044 1.000 .318 Located in West Coed 935.172 495.999 .076 1.885 .060 Age 14.063 3.671 .168 3.831 .000 Admission: 2399.123 333.772 .395 7.188 .000 Competitivene s Ratin Avg 2.630E-04 .000 .211 3.741 .000 Endowment 1990-1996 Tuition -6101.615 1587.746 -.169 -3.843 .000 Discount Rate 1995 a Dependent Variable: NTRPS95 144 Coefficients N=287 Unstandardize Standardized t Sig. R2=.442 Coefficien Coefficien 1 (Constant) 7170.256 2162.420 3.316 .001 Religious -3 663 .9 1 5 652.906 -.309 ~5.61 2 .000 Affiliation Average -.669 .337 -.097 -1.984 .048 Enrollment, 1990-2000 Minority —4934.2 1 7 2051.109 -. 120 -2.406 .017 Percentage Av Institution -1566.566 798.327 -.1 12 -1.962 .051 Located in South Institution -785 .346 667.645 -.068 - l . 176 .241 Located in Midwest Institution 491.770 882.553 .029 .557 .578 Located in West Coed 699.39 851.171 .039 .822 .412 Age 17.180 6.320 .142 2.7181 .007 Admissions 2665.452 552.082 .312 4.828 .000 Competitive ness Rating Avg 8.299E-05 .000 .045 .686 .493 Endowment 1990-1996 Tuition -12199.971 2406.882 -.259 —5.06 .000 Discount Rate 2000 a Dependent Variable: NTRPSOO 145 Coefficients N=287 Unstandardize Standardizej r Sig. R2=.730 Coefficient Coefficien 1 (Constant) -5735136625 2025559253 -2.831 .005 Religious -2498744.099 625162.878 -.153 -3.997 .000 Affiliation Average 4397.803 329.54 .465 13.345 .000 Enrollment, 1990-2000 Minority -5649753.0881936022.95 -.100 -2.9181 .00 Percentage Avg Institution -1510742.955 762029.527 -.078l -1.983 .048 Locatedin South Institution -696463.027 648848.463 -.044| -1.073 .284 Locatedin Midwest Institution -669609.578 854465.224I -.028 -.784 .434 Located in West Coed 925804.668 815061.157 .03 1.136 .257 Age 18314610 5903.768 .110 3.102 .002 Admissionj 2926134310 533208.327 .249 5.488 .000 Competitivenes Ratin Avg .606 .117 .240 5.200 .000 Endowment 1990-1996 Tuition -8528000800 3023319304 -.100 -2.821 .005 Discount Rate 1990 a Dependent Variable: NTR90 146 Coefficients =287 ‘Unstandardized Standardized r Sig. R2=.767 Coefficients Coefficien 1 (Constant -7936832.992 2438243.]99 -3.255 .001 Religious -2697413.638 742317.02 -.129 -3.634 .000 Affiliation Average 6709.039 389.416 .553 17.228 .000 Enrolhnent, 1990-2000 Minority -5227629809 2328768200 -.072 -2.245 .026 Percentage Avgl Institution -1684031.386 909961.404 -.068 -1.851 .065 Located in South Institution -1221259.750 764084.479 -.060 -1.598 .111 Located in Midwest Institution -62330.210 1005428573 -.002 -.062 .951 Located in West Coed 1630201.767 969497.312 .052 1.681 .09 Age 14435.168 7119.409 .068 2.028 .0441 Admissions 3709977451 630792.490 .24 5.881 .000 Competitive ness Ratin Avg .730 .138 .226 5.292 .000 Endowment 1990-1996 Tuition -8416402.006 3110548822 -.090 -2.706 .007 Discoun Rate 19951 a Dependent Variable: NTR95 147 Coefficients N=287 Unstandardizecj Standardizegl t Sig. R2=.742 Coefficient Coefficien 1 (Constant) -7850701.503 3081698046 -2.548 .011 Religiou -3640156.658 930467.073 -.146 -3.912 .000 Affiliation Average 7979.812 480.716 .554 16.600 .000 Enrollment, 1990-2000 Minority -7733657.531 2923067.124 -.090 -2.646 .009 Percentage Av Institution -2628630.843 1137708531 -.090 -2.310 .022 Located in South Institution -2219001.828 951470.815 -.092 -2.332 .020 Located in Midwest Institution -270988623 1257739474 -.008 -.215 .830 Locatedin West Coed 3002051001 1213017.]91 .080 2.475 .01 Age 18692.200 9006.789 .07 2.075 .039 Admissions 4735298877 7867801 15 .264r 6.019 .000 Competitive ness Rating Avg .484 .172 . 126 2.807 .005 Endowment 1990-1996 Tuition -13766094.546 3430085381 -.139 -4.013 .000 Discount Rate 2000 a Dependent Variable: NTR00 148 References Adelman, C. (1999). Answers in the toolbox: Academic intensity, attendance patterns. and bachelor’s degree attainment. Washington, DC: United States Government Printing Office. Allan, R. (1999). 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