5.; $.35. 1. f 2,“ Jun 5;? . .....:,.=. . .4. ‘. law 5.3% ....,.. IT.» 2...? . maul l 7):: 1 6 “Bi/LIZ'J'E‘ This is to certify that the dissertation entitled ARE INTEREST RATE SWAPS USED TO MANAGE BANKS’ EARNINGS? presented by CHANG JOON SONG has been accepted towards fulfillment of the requirements for the Department of Accounting and Ph-D- degree in Information Systems W\A%W ' - Wt PFofessor’s Signa‘t’ure ‘7 // /o 4 Date MSU is an Aflinnative Action/Equal Opportunity Institution LIBRARY Michigan State University PLACE IN RETURN BOX to remove this checkout from your record. To AVOID FINES return on or before date due. MAY BE RECALLED with earlier due date if requested. DATE DUE DATE DUE DATE DUE 6/01 cJCIRC/DateDue.p65-p.15 ARE INTEREST RATE SWAPS USED TO MANAGE BANKS’ EARNINGS? By Chang Joon Song A DISSERTATION Submitted to Michigan State University In partial fulfillment of the requirements For the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY Department of Accounting and Information Systems 2004 ABSTRACT ARE INTEREST RATE SWAPS USED TO MANAGE BANKS’ EARNINGS? By Chang Joon Song Previous research has shown that loan loss provisions and security gains and losses are used to manage banks’ net income. However, these income components are reported below banks’ largest operating component, net interest income (N11). This study extends the literature by examining whether banks exploit the accounting permitted under past and current hedge accounting standards to manage NII by entering into interest rate swaps. Specifically, I investigate whether banks enter into receive-fixed/pay-variable swaps to increase earnings when unmanaged N11 is below management’s target for N11. In addition, I investigate whether banks enter into receive-vanable/pay-fixed swaps to decrease eamings when unmanaged N11 is above management’s target for N11. Swaps- based earnings management is possible because past and current hedge accounting standards allow receive-fixed/pay-variable swaps (receive-variable/pay-fixed) to have known positive (negative) income effects in the first period of the swap contract. However, entering into swaps for N11 management is not costless, because such swaps change the interest rate risk position throughout the swap period. Thus, I also examine whether banks find it cost-beneficial to enter into offsetting swap positions in the next period to mitigate interest rate risk caused by entering into earnings management swaps in the current period. Using 546 bank-year observations from 1995 to 2002, I find that swaps are used to manage NII. However, I do not find evidence that banks immediately enter into offsetting swap positions in the next period. In sum, this research demonstrates that banks exploit the accounting provided under past and current hedge accounting rules to manage NII. This NII management opportunity will disappear if the F ASB implements full fair value accounting for financial instruments, as foreshadowed by F AS No. 133. Dedicated to my wife and best friend, J ihyun and to my loving family. iv ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS My very first journey as a researcher is complete. This journey would not have been accomplished without the incredible support from my committee: Thomas Linsmeier (chair), K. Ramesh, Bruce Bettinghaus, and Roger Calantone. I especially thank Tom for being patient with me and for helping me to grow as a researcher. I am very grateful both to the other faculty members in the Department of Accounting and Information Systems and to my PhD. student colleagues, who have challenged me with fresh viewpoints. Finally, I am especially thankful for the love and support of my wife, J ihyun, my parents, J in-Hang and Kyung-Bin, my brothers, Young-Joon and Kyung-Joon, my adorable nephews, all of my in-laws, my host family in Lansing, John, Bonnie, Jack and Jeff, my former graduate advisor in Seoul, Professor Manwoo Lee, who show me the joy of accounting beginning in my freshman year, Professor Jun-Koo Kang in the finance department, Il-Joo Foundation for providing me with a scholarship for five years, and many friends near and far who have always been there for me. Today, I am taking the first step of my second journey. TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF FIGURES .......................................................................................................... vii LIST OF TABLES ........................................................................................................... viii CHAPTER I: INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................ 1 CHAPTER II : IMPORTANCE OF NET INTEREST INCOME ....................................... 9 CHAPTER III: SWAPS AS RISK AND EARNINGS MANAGEMENT TOOLS ......... 12 l. Swaps as Interest Rate Risk Management Tools ...................................................... 12 2. Swap Valuation ......................................................................................................... 15 3. Swaps as Net Interest Income Management Tools ................................................... 20 CHAPTER IV: HYPOTHESIS DEVELOPMENT .......................................................... 23 CHAPTER V: RESEARCH DESIGN .............................................................................. 26 1. Hypothesis 1 .............................................................................................................. 26 2. Hypothesis 2 .............................................................................................................. 31 CHAPTER VI: SAMPLE AND DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS ...................................... 33 1. Sample ....................................................................................................................... 33 2. Descriptive Statistics ................................................................................................. 34 CHAPTER VII: RESULTS .............................................................................................. 39 CHAPTER VIII: CONCLUSIONS .................................................................................. 42 APPENDIX ....................................................................................................................... 59 HEDGE ACCOUNTING FOR INTEREST RATE SWAPS PRE- AND POST-F AS NO. 133 ......................................................................................................................... S9 BIBLIOGRAPHY ............................................................................................................. 69 vi LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1. Interest Rate Swap between Bank A and Bank B .............................................. 44 Figure 2. Fair Value and Cash Flow Hedges of Loans using a Swap ............................... 44 Figure 3. Cash Flow Hedge of a Variable-Rate Liability using a RV Swap .................... 44 Figure 4. Spot and Forward Rate Yield Curves ................................................................ 45 Figure 5. Relationship between Forward Rate and Net Cash Flows of Swaps ................. 45 Figure 6 Mean & Median of Notional Amount of Interest Rate Swaps as Percentage of Total Assets from 1995 to 2002 ................................................................................ 46 Figure 7. Interest Rate Yield Curves from 1995 to 2002 .................................................. 47 vii LIST OF TABLES Table 1. Average US. Commercial Banks’ Income Components as a Percentage of Total Assets ........................................................................................................................ 48 Table 2. Effective Interest Rates after using Swaps ......................................................... 49 Table 3. Spot and Forward Interest Rates ......................................................................... 50 Table 4. Cash Flows from a RF Swap .............................................................................. 50 Table 5. Expected Net Economic Effects from RF Swap at the end of Period 1 ............. 51 Table 6 Descriptive Statistics for Sample Banks .............................................................. 52 Table 7 Descriptive Statistics of Swap Usage .................................................................. 53 Table 8 Descriptive Statistics for Swap Users & Non-users and Economic Effects of Swaps on N11 ............................................................................................................. 54 Table 9 Descriptive Statistics for Variables in Regression Model ................................... 56 Table 10 Regression Results for H1 ................................................................................. 57 Table 11 Regression Results for H2 ................................................................................. 58 Table A. Cash Flows from Assets and Swaps .................................................................. 62 Table B. Fair Values of the BankA and Bank B’s Assets & Swaps at the end of Year 1 63 Table C. Bank A’s Journal Entries before FAS No. 133 .................................................. 64 Table D. Journal Entries after FAS No. 133 ..................................................................... 65 Table E. Swaps’ Effects on N11 and Net Income Pre- and Post-FAS No. 133 ................. 68 viii CHAPTER I: INTRODUCTION This study examines whether interest rate swaps are used to manage bank holding companies’ (hereafter, banks) earnings. Previous research has shown that loan loss provisions (LLP) and security gains and losses (SGL) are used (1) to manage earnings and taxes, and (2) to reduce regulatory costs (e.g., Moyer, 1990; Scholes et al., 1990; Warfield and Linsmeier, 1992; Beatty et al., 1995; Collins et a1, 1995; Ahmed et al., 1999; Beatty et al., 2002). As distinct from previous studies, this study shows that net interest income (N 11) can be managed by using interest rate swaps (hereafter, swaps). The main difference between earnings management using LLP and SGL and earnings management using swaps is where the managed earnings are reported in the income statement. Swap transactions directly affect NII, the first primary subtotal in banks’ income statements. In contrast, LLP and SGL directly affect net income, not N11. N11 is a significant portion of earnings in banks’ income statements. In 2002, N11 is 3.5% of total bank assets, while LLP and SGL are 0.68% and 0.1% of bank assets, respectively (see Table 1 in Chapter II). In addition, Ryan (2002, p. 212) indicates that N11 is the main source of banks’ income. Despite the significance of N11, research has not investigated any methods that bank managers may exploit to manage this largest component of earnings. Given the importance of N1], the objective of this study is to examine whether banks manage NII by using interest rate swaps. Two pieces of anecdotal evidence suggest this may be the case. First, according to the recent report by Baker Botts LLP (2003) to the Board of Directors of the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (known as Freddie Mac), $420 million of operating earnings were transferred from 2001 into subsequent years by entering into a series of swap transactions. Freddie Mac deferred its earnings because realized NII far exceeded its expectations and it did not want to inflate NII expectations in future periods. Second, Partnoy (2003, p. 45) suggests in his book, Infectious Greed: How Deceit and Risk Corrupted the Financial Mark_e_t§ that: There were a few ugly stories about firms using swaps to manipulate their accounting results. One bank contemplated internal swaps -swaps with itself- whereby it would set aside reserves depending on how much profit it wanted to declare in a particular quarter. Swaps are private agreements between two parties to exchange cash flows in future periods based on a predetermined formula (Hull, 1997). The most common type of interest rate swap is the “plain vanilla” swap. Under this swap agreement, one party (e.g., Bank A) pays to the other party (e.g., Bank B) cash flows equal to interest at a predetermined fixed rate on a notional amount for a specified number of periods. At the same time, BankA receives from Bank B cash flows equal to interest at a variable rate (e.g., LIBOR’, prime rate, etc.) on the same notional amount for the same periods. In this example, the swap is a receive-variable/pay-fixed swap (hereafter, RV swap) for BankA, while the same swap is receive-fixed/pay variable swap (hereafter, RF swap) for Bank B. Swap valuation is based on the expected net cash flows between fixed and variable legs of the swap. Suppose the interest yield curve is upward sloping (the most frequent case). This implies that forward interest yield curve is also upward sloping (see Chapter III for details). Therefore, the variable rate payer’s (Bank B) future cash outflows from the variable leg of the swap are expected to increase. Given these expected variable ' The London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) is the rate of interest offered by banks on deposits from other banks in Eurocurrency markets (Hull, 1997). This rate has become a common variable rate swap index. swap cash flows, to construct an at-the-money swap Bank A and Bank B need to agree upon a fixed interest rate that makes the initial value of the swap zero. Since the current period interest rate is the lowest point on the upward-sloping variable rate yield curve, the interest rate for the fixed leg of the swap must be set equal to a higher value that equates the present value of expected cash flows to be exchanged between Bank A and Bank B. Due to this mechanism and assuming an upward-sloping yield curve, banks holding RF swaps will receive positive cash inflows in the early periods of the swap. Similarly, banks holding RV swaps will experience negative cash outflows in early swap periods. Moreover, given the positive and negative cash flow effects from the swap’s initial period cash flows are set by interest rates at the swap inception date, managers know the exact initial period cash flow effect of the swap. If the accounting model reflects this economic effect in N11, managers can exploit this opportunity to manage NII. Past and current hedge accounting models permit reporting of the net cash flows from the swap as adjustments to reported interest revenue or expense of the hedged item. Thus, under these hedge accounting models, the positive or negative cash flow effects in the early periods of the swap generally are reflected in N11 in income statements. However, there is an additional issue in these hedge accounting models: recognition of any changes in the fair value of the hedging instrument. Since managers do not have knowledge at swap inception as to the direction of future interest rate changes, recognizing any unrealized fair value gains or losses on swaps due to unexpected interest rate changes may counteract the earnings management effects of recognizing the initial swap cash flows in N11. Then, managers would not be able to firlly exploit this NII management opportunity using swaps, resulting in a less attractive tool to manage earnings. Under past and current hedge accounting standards, however, bank managers often can directly manage NII without having to recognize any counteracting effects on net income. Prior to Financial Accounting Standard Board Statement No. 133 (F AS No. 133), Accounting Derivative Instruments and Hedging Activities,2 interest rate swaps accounted for as hedges were not recognized at fair value (Herz, 1994).3 This hedge accounting model recognized only periodic net cash settlements under the swap in N11. Thus, the concern about counteracting earnings management effects by recognizing unrealized fair value gains or losses on swaps was not an issue. In contrast, swaps are required to be recognized at fair value in post-F AS No. 133 periods. However, this does not mitigate the N11 management opportunity as long as swaps are accounted for as hedges because it is also required that corresponding hedged items’ gains or losses be recognized in earnings.4 Specifically, if a swap is designated as a fair value hedge, changes in fair values of both swaps and hedged items are recognized immediately in earnings. As long as a fair value hedge is effective, gains (losses) on hedged items are offset by losses (gains) on swaps, resulting in no counteracting effects on either N11 or net income. If a swap is designated as a cash flow hedge, gains or losses on the swap are recognized in other comprehensive income (OCI) not net income. Thus, 2 FAS No. 133 is amended by Financial Accounting Standard Board Statement No. 138 (FAS No. 138), Accounting for Certain Derivative Instruments and Certain Hedging A ctivities-An Amendment of FASB Statement No. 133 and by Financial Accounting Standard Board Statement No. 149 (FAS No. 149), Amendment of Statement 133 on Derivative Instruments and Hedging Activities. 3 The accounting guidance supporting this hedge accounting model was issued in Emerging Issue Task Force Issue Nos. 84-7 and 84-36. ‘ In order for managers to be able to treat earnings management swaps as hedges, the following two conditions must be met: (1) prior to putting on the earnings management swaps, the hedge ratio is less than I, and (2) appropriate hedged items exist in interest earnings assets and liabilities to support hedge accounting treatment. I assume that banks have ability to meet both conditions. the recognition of unrealized gains or losses on swaps accounted for as cash flow hedges also does not have any counteracting current period effect on N11 (see Appendix for details). In sum, as long as the swap is accounted for as a hedge, the mandated fair value recognition of swaps under F AS No. 133 generally does not eliminate the N11 management opportunity provided by recognizing periodic cash flow settlements in N11.5 As a result, I hypothesize that banks enter into RF swaps accounted for as hedges to manage NII upward if unmanaged N11 is expected to be below management’s target for N11. Similarly, I hypothesize that banks enter into RV swaps accounted for as hedges if they want to transfer current earnings into future periods because unmanaged NII exceeds management’s target for N11. The decision to enter into swaps for N11 management purposes, however, is not costless. Entering into additional swaps to manage earnings is costly because such investments change banks’ interest rate risk positions. Therefore, if maintaining risk management equilibrium is crucial, banks may seek to mitigate quickly the additional interest rate risk by entering into offsetting swap positions at the start of the next period. For example, if banks use RF swaps to increase earnings, they may enter into RV swaps at the start of the next period to mitigate the interest rate risk taken on by entering into the RF swaps this period. As long as earnings management swaps and reversing swaps are 5 When swaps are accounted for as trading instruments, bank managers are unable to manage earnings (either N11 or net income) by predetermined amounts by entering into swap contracts. Trading swaps’ unrealized gains or losses, after adjustment for net of periodic net cash settlements, are recognized immediately in earnings. Since these net effects are reported outside NII, there is no NII management opportunity. In addition, due to the uncertainty about future interest rate changes at swap inception, the net effect on net income is unknown (see Appendix for details). well matched, the concern about the cost of using swaps for earnings management can be somewhat mitigated. However, banks may not necessarily enter into offsetting swap positions. Depending upon interest rate changes in the initial period and the length of maturity of N11 management swaps, it may be difficult to enter into well-matched offsetting swaps in subsequent periods. Therefore, instead of entering into offsetting swap positions immediately in the next period, bank managers may observe both initial and subsequent periods’ interest rate changes and current period earnings realizations before deciding whether or not to enter into offsetting swap positions. I, therefore, also test whether or not risk management costs are significant enough to cause banks entering into earnings management swaps to generally enter into opposite swap positions early in the subsequent period. Using a sample of 546 bank-year observations from 1995 to 2002, I find that, after controlling for investments in RF and RV swaps for risk management purposes, bank managers appear to enter into swaps to manage NII. Specifically, I find that if unmanaged N11 is less (greater) than the target, banks enter into RF (RV) swaps to increase (decrease) NII. In addition, I provide evidence that bank managers do not appear to immediately enter into offsetting swap positions in subsequent periods to mitigate the additional interest rate risk taken on by investing in swaps to manage NII. A possible explanation for this latter finding is that, instead of strictly maintaining risk management equilibrium, managers first consider subsequent periods’ interest rate changes and the new NII target before deciding on entering into new swap positions in the subsequent period. This dissertation contributes to the current literature by providing evidence on whether swap instruments are widely used to manage earnings in the banking industry. To the best of my knowledge, this is the first study showing that derivative instruments are used for earnings management rather than risk management purposes.6 Secondly, while most of previous studies focus on LLP and SGL as tools to manage banks’ total net income (Moyer, 1990; Beatty et al., 1995; Collins et al., 1995; Ahmed et al., 1999; Beatty et al., 2002), this study shows that swaps often are used to manage NII, an intermediate and significant component of total net income. However, this NII management opportunity arises only if swaps are accounted for as hedges under either the past and current hedge accounting models. Interestingly, it should be noted that this NII management opportunity will be eliminated if the FASB moves to a full fair value model for financial instruments, as foreshadowed in FAS No. 133.7 This dissertation is organized as follows. Chapter 11 provides evidence on importance of N11. Chapter III explains how swap instruments are used for both risk and earnings management purposes. Chapter IV develops the hypotheses. Chapter V introduces the research design. Chapter VI defines the sample and provides descriptive 6 Barton (2001) and Pincus and Rajgopal (2002) find a substitute relationship between derivatives usage and discretionary accruals management by nonfinancial companies. Since earnings are a sum of cash flows and accruals, they show that smoothing cash flows with derivatives has (I) a direct effect on the volatility of earnings by smoothing cash flows, and (2) an indirect effects on earnings management by reducing the need to smooth earnings through discretionary accruals. These studies assume that derivatives are used for risk management purposes only. In contrast, this study examines whether derivatives are used for both risk management and earnings management purposes. 7 In December 2000, Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) issued a Special Report regarding accounting for financial instruments and similar items prepared by the Financial Instruments Joint Working Group of standard setters (J WG). This Draft Standard proposes to measure virtually all financial instruments at fair value. Therefore, it provides guidance on how to recognize derivatives under the full fair value accounting model. Consistent with the full fair value accounting for derivatives described in this dissertation, J WG concludes that fair value gains or losses (after adjustment for swap cash receipts and payments) are to be reported outside N1] in the income statement (F ASB, 2000b, paragraph 137 (e)). statistics. Chapter VII presents results. Chapter VIII provides conclusions and implications. CHAPTER II: IMPORTANCE OF NET INTEREST INCOME The relative importance of N11 to bank managers is supported by several sources. First, N11 is the main source of banks’ earnings (Ryan, 2002, p.212). Table 1 provides a summary of average US. commercial banks’ income components as a percentage of total assets. For all commercial banks in 2002, net interest income is 3.5% on average of total assets. In contrast, LLP and SGL are only 0.68% and 0.1% of total assets, respectively. For medium sized banks, the importance of N11 is even greater. Specifically, for these banks LLP and SGL are only 0.54% and 0.04% of total assets, respectively, while N11 is 3.94% of total assets. INSERT TABLE 1 HERE Second, bank regulators pay attention to six items in their CAMELS rating to determine safety and soundness of banks: Capital adequacy, Asset quality, Management, Earnings, Liquidity, and Sensitivity to market risk. The judgment rating on earnings is based on several factors, including (1) the level, trend, and stability of earnings, and (2) the quality and sources of earnings (FDIC, 2002). Given that N11 is the main source of banks’ income (Ryan, 2002, p. 212); managers may want to ensure that N11 is stable and growing. Third, the relative importance of N11 as a bank performance indicator is supported by SEC disclosure requirements. SEC Industry Guide 3 requires banks to make disclosures about the level and changes in N11. Specifically, banks are required to provide an analysis of net interest income, which contains information about (1) the average outstanding amounts of interest-earnings assets and interest-bearing liabilities, (2) the average yield earned and paid, and (3) the interest earned and paid. Another required disclosure is a rate-volume analysis. This disclosure decomposes the change in net interest income into two components: (1) interest rate effects, which represent the effects on N11 due to changes in interest rates and (2) volume effects, which represent the effects on N11 due to changes in volume of interest-earning assets and interest-bearing liabilities.” Last, research evidence supports the importance of N11 as an indicator of bank’s performance. Eccher et al. (1996) find that N11 is a significant factor in explaining banks’ market-to-book ratio. Similarly, Barth et al. (1990) Show that the stock market puts different weights on earnings components, with the greatest emphasis being placed on earnings before SGL. Considering N11 is a significant portion of earnings before SGL, they provide additional evidence supporting the relative importance of N11 to bank managers. In sum, due to the significance of N11 as a component of total bank earnings, managers may have a strong incentive to manage NII. Interest rate swaps provide an ideal mechanism to manage NII because the first period NII effect from entering into swaps is known precisely at swap inception. However, to achieve this NII management outcome, it is required that banks account for the new swaps as hedging instruments. Next, I will present economic and accounting models for swaps to explain (1) how banks use swaps to hedge interest rate risk, and (2) how NII management is possible under the past and 8 For more detailed information, see Ryan (2002). 10 current accounting models. Since earnings management effects are closely related to the economics of swap valuation, I also will describe the relationship between swap valuation and swap-based earnings management. 11 CHAPTER III: SWAPS AS RISK AND EARNINGS MANAGEMENT TOOLS9 . l. Swaps as Interest Rate Risk Management Tools Suppose BankA issues a $1 million fixed-rate (11.85%) loan and Bank B issues a $1 million variable-rate (I-year LIBOR) loan. Since BankA’s cash inflows from the loan are fixed regardless of future changes in interest rates, the fair value of the loan will change as interest rates change. Thus, BankA’s loan is exposed to fair value risk. In contrast, because Bank B’s cash inflows from the loan are updated based on the prevailing interest rate, fair value risk generally is not an issue. Rather, firture cash flows will fluctuate with changes in the interest rate. Thus, Bank B primarily is exposed to cash flow risk. To hedge these risks, BankA and Bank B can consider a three-year swap initiated at January 1, Year 1, where Bank A agrees to pay a rate of 11.85% on the notional amount of $1 million to Bank B and in return Bank B agrees to pay l-year LIBOR on the same notional amount to BankA. The net payments are agreed to be exchanged at the end of every year. This swap is summarized in Figure 1. INSERT FIGURE 1 HERE 9 See Song (2002) for a comprehensive literature review regarding (1) economic effects of risk management, (2) past and current hedge accounting standards, and (3) previous studies related to each of these standards. 12 By entering into the swap as shown in Figure 1 (the swap is a RV swap for Bank A, but a RF swap for Bank B), Bank A and Bank B each can hedge their respective fair value and cash flow risks. Specifically, for Bank A, the RV swap effectively converts the fixed-rate loan into a variable-rate loan. As described in Figure 2, for Bank A, cash inflows from the fixed-rate loan are offset by cash outflows from the fixed—rate leg of the swap. Thus, the net interest cash flows in the loan and swap are the variable-rate cash inflows from the swap. This implies that the RV swap has effectively caused the fixed- rate loan to become a variable-rate loan; hence Bank A’s fair value risk is hedged. INSERT FIGURE 2 HERE On the other hand, for Bank B, the RF swap effectively converts the variable-rate - loan into a fixed-rate loan. As shown in Figure 2, variable-rate cash inflows from the loan are offset by cash outflows of the variable-leg of the swap. The net interest cash flows become the fixed (11.85%) cash inflows from the fixed leg of the swap. Therefore, Bank B effectively converts the variable-rate loan into a fixed-rate loan. Thus, Bank B’s cash flow risk is hedged. Table 2 summarizes effective interest rates on the combined loan and swap, assuming that 1-year LIBOR for Years 1 through 3 is 10%, 12.01%, and 14.03%, respectively. Note that after considering swap effects, Bank A’s loan effectively becomes a variable-rate loan and Bank B’s loan is converted effectively into a fixed-rate loan. 13 INSERT TABLE 2 HERE F ixed- or variable-rate liabilities also can be hedged using swaps. Figure 3 provides an example of a liability hedge. Suppose BankA has a $1 million variable-rate (l-year LIBOR) liability and Bank B has a $1 million fixed-rate (11.85%) liability. Therefore, BankA’s liability is exposed to a cash flow risk because interest payments for the liability will depend on future interest rates. In contrast, Bank B’s liability is eXposed to a fair value risk because interest payments for the liability are predetermined. By entering into the swap as shown in Figure 1, both BankA and Bank B can hedge their risks. As described in Figure 3, the RV swap effectively converts BankA ’s variable-rate liability into a fixed-rate liability, thus the cash flow risk is hedged. Also Bank B’s RF swap effectively converts the fixed-rate liability into a variable-rate liability, thus the fair value risk is hedged. INSERT FIGURE 3 HERE In sum, by using swaps, fixed-rate and variable-rate assets & liabilities can be converted into variable-rate and fixed-rate assets & liabilities, respectively. During the conversion process, either cash flow risk or fair value risk is hedged. Although banks can convert variable- or fixed-rate assets and liabilities into fixed- or variable-assets and 14 liabilities, interest risks cannot be removed completely. For example, if Bank A hedges the cash flow risk of a variable-rate liability by using a RV swap, this hedging process transforms the cash flow risk into fair value risk; risk is changed but not eliminated. In general, banks’ interest rate risks are caused by maturity mismatches. For example, suppose Bank B has only a $1 million variable-rate loan asset which will mature tomorrow and be reinvested at the prevailing interest rate, while the funding source is a fixed-rate (11.85%) liability that will mature three years later. If the variable interest rate falls below 11.85% tomorrow, then a loss will occur because the lower variable interest revenue on the renewed loans will not cover the higher fixed interest expense. The opposite is true if the variable interest rate increases. Therefore repricing and/or maturity differences between assets and liability make cash flows and earnings volatile. To reduce cash flow and/or earnings volatility, banks oftenattempt to match the duration of their assets/liabilities portfolio. This goal can be achieved using swaps by converting, for example, variable-rate assets into fixed-rate assets or fixed-rate liabilities into variable- rate liabilities. 2. Swap Valuation In the Table 2 example, because the interest rate yield curve is upward-sloping (the most frequent case”), the swap’s fixed interest rate (11.85%) is set to be greater than the variable interest rate (10%) at Year 1. Given this relationship, Bank B (Bank A) will receive (pay) cash flows from BankA (Bank B) at the end of Year I by entering into RF (RV) swaps. The reverse is true if the interest rate yield curve is downward-sloping. To '0 See yield curves from 1995 to 2002 in Figure 7, Chapter VI. 15 understand the relationship between fixed and variable swap rates, I next describe swap valuation. Swap interest rates are based on the relation between spot and forward interest rates. The n-year spot interest rate is defined as the per annurn interest rate on an investment that is made for a period of time starting today and lasting for n years (Hull, 1997). For example, if you invest $1 million for two years and will receive $232,100 interest at the end of the second year without receiving any other interest payments during the periods, the 2-year spot interest rate is 11% per annum.ll Sometimes the n- year spot interest rate is called the n-year zero-coupon yield. INSERT TABLE 3 HERE Forward interest rates are defined as the interest rates implied by current spot rates for periods of time in the future (Hull, 1997). For example, suppose the second column in Table 3 represents current spot interest rates for years 1 through 3 and you want to invest $1 million for two years. Then, you have two options: (I) invest $1 million for two years at the current two-year spot rate, which will yield (1+.11)2 >< $1 million, or (2) invest $1 million for one year at 10%, the current one-year spot rate, and then invest the accumulated sum at the end of the first year at the second year’s expected one-year spot rate, which is the forward rate. Assuming an efficient market, there should be no arbitrage gains between these two options and thus the second year forward rate is the " Assuming annual compounding. $1,000, 000x (1 + 0.11)2 - $1,000,000 = $232,100- 16 estimate of the second year’s one-year spot rate. This guarantees that the following equations will hold. <1+rz)’=(1+rl)-(1+1r2) (1) (l+r3)3=(l+r])-(l+lr2)-(l+2r3) (2) where, r] , r2 and )3 represent current spot rates for l-year (=10%), 2-years (=11%), and 3-years (=12%), respectively. Also, ir j is a forward rate defined as the expected l-year spot interest rate for year j as of the end of year i. For example, 1"2 represents Year 2’s expected l-year spot rates as of the end of Year 1. 1’2 is 12.01% from equation (1), implying that the expected l-year spot interest rate at the end of the Year 1 is 12.01%. Similarly, 213 is 14.03% which is the one-year forward rate at the end of the Year 2. As shown in Figure 4, the forward interest rate curve is always above the spot interest rate curve as long as the spot rate yield curve is upward-sloping (see Hull (1997), p. 80 for the proof). ’2 INSERT FIGURE 4 HERE Suppose Bank B wants to enter into a RF swap to hedge the fixed-rate liability as shown in Figure 3. Given the current yield curve in Figure 4 and assuming the notional amount is $1 million, expected cash flows from the variable leg of the swap are shown in '2 If the spot yield cure is downward-sloping, the forward yield curve is always below the spot yield curve. 17 the third column of Table 4.13 Note that variable cash flows at the end of the period are determined based on the one-year forward rate (e.g., LIBOR) at the beginning of each period in Figure 4. For example, since the interest rate at the swap inception is 10%, Bank B pays $100,000 at the end of the Year 1 because the variable rate used to determine the Year 1 cash flow is set at the beginning of Year 1. This implies that, when entering a swap transaction, there is no uncertainty about the first period net cash flow.14 INSERT TABLE 4 HERE If the two banks seek to enter into an at-the-money swap, the next step is that Bank A and Bank B must set an interest rate for the fixed leg of the swap that makes the initial swap value zero. Let I? be the Bank B’s fixed cash inflow from the swap. Then, equation (3) should hold. Thus, It- is $118,500, which means the fixed coupon-interest rate of the swap is 11.85%. (IT—100,000) + (IT-120,100) + (IF—140,300) _ (1+0.l) (14.0.11)2 (14.0.12)3 0 (3) The expected fixed and net cash flows from the RF swap are shown in the fourth and fifth columns of Table 4, respectively. Note that the first net cash flow is positive and second and third net cash flows are negative. If the yield curve is upward sloping, the '3 It is assumed that there is no credit risk. " Hull (1997), p. 112. 18 following statements about the swaps are always true:'5 (1) if the forward rate (i.e., 10%) is less than the fixed interest rate (i.e., 11.85%) of the swap, then the net cash flows are positive, (2) if the forward rate (i.e., 12.01% and 14.03%) is greater than the fixed interest rate (i.e., 11.85%) of the swap, then the net cash flows are negative.16 In this example, the net cash flow in Year 1 is positive, and this positive cash flow is offset with negative future cash flows, resulting in zero initial present value for the swap. In general, if the fixed interest rate is set at a % as shown in Figure 5, the expected RF swap payments up to period t will generate positive not expected cash flows. From the period t to maturity, net expected cash flows from the RF swap will be negative. As Shown in column 6 of Table 4, the sum of present values of these net positive and negative cash flows is zero at the initiation of an at-the-money swap contract. INSERT FIGURE 5 HERE To understand the net economic effects of swaps, Table 5 summarizes the economic effects during Year 1 under the assumption that interest rates move as expected.'7 At the end of Year 1, Bank B receives a positive net cash flow of $1 8,500 from Bank A, but the present value of Bank B’s commitment to pay cash flows to Bank A '5 The reverse is true when yield curve is downward sloping. '6 See Chapter 5 of Hull (1997) for more details. '7 At the end of Year 1, I-year and 2-year spot interest rates are 12.01% and 13.01%, respectively. This implies that (1) Year 2’s forward interest rate becomes the actual l-year spot interest rate as expected, and (2) Year 3’s forward interest rate remains the same as before. 19 in years 2 and 3 is $18,500. Thus, there are no net economic effects for either BankA or Bank B from the swap. INSERT TABLE 5 HERE However, if the variable interest rate moves unexpectedly, net effects could be either positive or negative depending upon the direction of the interest rate change. This ' implies that the net economic effects of a swap are uncertain, creating interest rate risk. 3. Swaps as Net Interest Income Management Tools In this section, I describe how accounting standards account for the economics of swaps. As shown in Table 5, the accounting model needs to capture two economic effects: (1) realization of the net cash flows caused by the difference in interest rates between the fixed and the variable legs of a swap, and (2) changes in the present value of future expected cash flows. Let us call the first effect the cash settlement effect and the second effect the fair value effect. The cash settlement effect provides bank managers with NII management opportunities because past and current hedge accounting models permit reporting of the net cash settlements under the swap as adjustments to reported interest revenue and expenses of the hedged item. This is consistent with the economic outcome from hedging activities. Recall, Table 2 previously demonstrated how swaps can be used to change the current period effective net interest rate for banks. BankA (Bank B) effectively converted a fixed-rate (variable-rate) loan into a variable-rate (fixed-rate) loan 20 by using a RV (RF ) swap. By recognizing the cash settlement effects from the swap contract as adjustments to reported interest revenue or expenses, reported NII from the hedged item will reflect the same interest rate on the hedged transaction as illustrated in Table 2. Moreover, because the first period cash flow settlement under the swap is set equal to the difference between the variable and fixed interest rates at swap inception, bank managers can use the accounting permitted by this hedge accounting model to change NII by a known amount in the first period. Specifically, if the interest rate yield curve is upward sloping, managers can increase (decrease) NII by known amounts in Year 1 by entering into a RF (RV) swap position.’8 However, as shown in the example in Table 5, this cash settlement effect could be counteracted by the fair value effect if changes in forward rates are recognized in net income as unrealized gains or losses. However, past and current hedge accounting standards do not require recognition of most or any of the fair value effect in net income. This is because (1) fair value changes for hedging swaps were not required to be recognized prior to F AS No. 133, and (2) post FAS No. 133, banks are required to recognize changes in fair value of both swaps and hedged items during the same time period for both fair value and cash flow hedges. Since under hedging accounting, the unrealized gains or losses on hedging swaps often offset the opposite, corresponding changes in the fair value of the hedged items, there is generally no fair value effect on net income (see Appendix for details). Therefore, as long as swaps are designated as hedges, managers can adjust N11 to reflect the change in net interest rate effectuated by the swap without any significant countervailing effect on reported net income. 1: If the yield cure is downward-sloping, a RF (RV) swap will decrease (increase) earnings in the early periods of the swap contract. 21 In contrast to hedging swaps, accounting rules for trading swaps did not change post-FAS No. 133. Under this fair value accounting model, the cash settlement and fair value effects are both required to be recognized in net income (not NII). Therefore, the two effects can offset because there are no counteracting gains or losses that will be recognized on designated hedged items. In addition, because management has no knowledge at swap inception as to the direction of future fair value changes, the net effect of trading swaps on net income is uncertain. In sum, this suggests that bank managers cannot use trading swaps to manage earnings by a predetermined amount.19 Because the accounting treatment for new swap acquisitions under the full fair value accounting is identical to the accounting for trading swaps under the current partial fair value hedge accounting model, the N11 management opportunity would be lost if FASB were to adopt firll fair value accounting for financial instruments, as foreshadowed by FAS No. 133. '9 The cash settlement and fair value effects are reported outside Nll. Therefore, trading swaps also provide no opportunity to manage N11. 22 CHAPTER IV: HYPOTHESIS DEVELOPMENT In contrast to prior studies’ focus on using derivatives for risk management purposes (e.g., Smith and Stulz, 1985; Froot et al., 1993; DeMarzo and Duffie, 1995), this study argues that derivatives, specifically interest rate swaps, also can be used to meet earnings targets. As shown in Chapter 111, when the interest rate yield curve is upward sloping (the typical case), the decision to enter into a RF swap will generate positive net cash flows in early contract periods. Moreover, there is no uncertainty about net swap cash flows in the first period because the amount is predetermined by the difference in fixed and variable interest rate indices at swap inception. Therefore, because not swap cash settlements are reported in N11 when the swap is accounted for as a hedge, managers know with certainty the magnitude of the first period NII effect when entering into a swap contract. As a consequence, my first research hypothesis is (assuming an upward sloping interest rate yield curve) that bank managers will exploit the known positive (negative) effect of RF (RV) swaps on N11 to manage earnings. Specifically, banks will enter into RF swaps if they anticipate that unmanaged NIl will be less than management’s target for N11. In contrast, if the current year’s unmanaged NII exceeds targeted N11, managers may want to defer N11 to future periods. This goal can be attained by entering into RV swaps because (assuming an upward sloping interest rate yield curve) RV swaps will have a negative NII effect in early swap periods. This analysis leads to my first hypothesis (stated in alternative form). 23 H1: After controlling for investments in RF and R V swaps for risk management purposes and assuming an upward sloping interest rate yield curve, (I) if unmanaged N11 is below management ’3 target for NI], banks will enter into additional RF swaps to increase current N11, or (2) if unmanaged NII exceeds management’s target for N11, banks will enter into additional R V swaps to defer current N11 to future periods. Using swaps for N11 management purposes is not costless, however, because the N11 management swaps will move banks’ swap portfolio away from the amount desired for risk management purposes.20 If maintaining an equilibrium risk management level throughout the entire period is critical, banks need to minimize the risk effects induced by NII management swaps. This can be achieved, albeit imperfectly, by entering into offsetting swaps in the subsequent period. For example, if banks use RF swaps to increase current NII, they could enter into similar magnitude RV swaps in the next period to offset the change in risk exposure caused by entering into the RF swap this period. The , reverse is true for RV swaps. However, banks may not find it cost-effective to immediately enter into offsetting swaps positions in the subsequent period because it may be difficult to enter into well- matched offsetting swap positions when significant changes in the current period interest rate yield curve occur subsequent to the acquisition of 3 N11 management swap contract. Thus, instead of immediately entering into offsetting swaps, bank managers may find it cost-effective to delay entering into swap positions in the subsequent period until they know the distance from earnings targets and the subsequent period interest rate risk exposure. 2° Conversations with derivative dealers indicate that transactions costs are only 2 basis points (.0002) of the notional amount of the swap contract. 24 To test whether or not banks find it cost-effective to immediately enter into offsetting swap position in the subsequent period to mitigate the effects arising from entering into swaps for earnings management purposes, I propose this second research hypothesis (stated in alternative form). H2: If banks use either RF swaps or RV swaps to manage N11, they will enter into oflsetting swap positions in the subsequent period to mitigatethe interest rate risk induced by entering into swaps for earnings management purposes. 25 CHAPTER V: RESEARCH DESIGN 1. Hypothesis 1 To test HI, I estimate the following model: ANETSWAPi, = a0 + a1 DIFF}, + azAGAPlYi, + a3ALTGAP,-, + 3,, (4) where: ANETSWAP“ : Change in net swap positions for bank i in period t, i.e., A(RFSWAP-RVSWAP), where RFSWAP (RVSWAP) is notional amounts of RF swaps (RV swaps). ANETSWAP is deflated by beginning total assets. DIFFi, : difference between NII target and unmanaged N11 for bank i in period t deflated by beginning total assets (a more precise definition is provided by equations (5)-(9)), AGAPlYi, : Change in l-year GAP for bank i in period t deflated by beginning total assets. ALT GAP” : Change in long-term GAP for bank i in period t deflated by beginning total assets. To explain changes in net swap positions, I first introduce two variables (AGAPlY and ALTGAP) that measure the basic risk management relationship between swap positions and interest rate risk. Changes in asset/liability compositions influence net changes in swap positions because interest rate risk is mainly driven by the maturity mismatch in asset/liability composition.2| GAPlY and LTGAP are defined as the differences between interest-earning assets and interest-bearing liabilities that will 2' Previous studies find that several variables (such as size, levels of deposit financing, liquidity, and bank capital) influence the decision to use swaps. However, there are no studies examining what characteristics of companies affect the use of certain type of swaps, i.e., RF swaps or RV swaps. For example, it is known that there is economies of scale regarding initiating and maintaining a hedging program (e.g., Booth et al., 1984; Mian, I996; Geczy et al., 1997, Haushalter, 2000, Kim and Koppenhaver, 1992). This implies that bank size is positively associated with the level of total swap usage. However, there is no reason to believe that bank size has a certain relationship with using more RF swaps than RV swaps or vice versa. Therefore, 1 do not include these variables in equation (4). 26 respectively mature or reprice within one year or subsequent to one year.22 Positive (negative) GAPlY indicates that interest rate sensitive assets that mature or reprice within one year are greater (less) than similar interest rate sensitive liabilities. Similarly, positive (negative) LTGAP indicates that interest rate sensitive assets that mature or reprice outside a one-year period are greater (less) than similar interest rate sensitive liabilities. To achieve risk management objectives, bank managers may want to enter into new swap positions as interest rate risk changes (i.e., as GAP positions change). For example, suppose that both (1) GAPIY and LTGAP at year t-I are positive, and (2) AGAPIY and ALTGAP increase. Since during period t both GAP positions moved further away from zero when compared to the positions at period t-I, interest rate risk is increased. Thus, managers may want to hedge these increased risks. Specifically, because interest rate sensitive assets and liabilities that mature or reprice within one—year require frequent resetting of the instrument’s interest rates, a positive AGAPIY implies that cash flow risk has increased. To hedge this additional cash flow risk, managers may choose to increase RF swaps in Year 1 to convert cash flow sensitive net assets into fair value sensitive net assets. Similarly, because interest rate sensitive assets and liabilities that mature or reprice in periods outside one-year have fixed interest rates for extended time periods, a positive ALTGAP implies that fair value risk is increased. To hedge this additional fair value risk, managers may enter into RV swaps in Year 1 to convert 22 Total interest-earning assets are computed as a sum of interest-earning deposits, securities, federal funds sold, securities purchased under agreements to resell, and loan and lease financing receivables. Total interest-bearing liabilities are computed as a sum of interest-bearing deposits, federal funds purchased, securities sold under agreements to repurchase, commercial paper, other borrowed money, mortgage . indebtedness, and subordinated notes and debentures. One year maturity information is obtained from the Interest Sensitivity Schedule in the FR Y9-C report. 27 increased fair value sensitive net assets into cash flow sensitive net assets. When the signs of AGAPIY and ALTGAP at t-1 are different from this example, the same rationale can be applied to predict what swap positions should be entered into to maintain the same risk level. Note, as illustrated above, I expect that positive changes in GAPIY and LTGAP may induce management to enter into different net swap positions for risk management purposes, i.e., management either will increase RF or RV swaps depending on whether there has been an increase in AGAPIY or ALTGAP, respectively. Therefore, I use net swap positions as the dependent variable in equation (4) instead of total notional amounts of swaps.23 The net swap position is defined as the difference in notional amounts between RF and RV swaps. As stated previously, I expect that positive AGAPlY (ALTGAP) to be associated with positive changes in RF (RV) swaps. This implies that AGAPIY (ALTGAP) is positively (negatively) associated with changes in net swap positions, ANETSWAP. Thus, I predict a2 and £13 to be positive and negative, respectively. After controlling for changes in net swap positions for risk management purposes, H1 predicts that managers may enter into additional swaps for N11 management purposes. To test whether bank managers appear to enter into RF and RV swaps for N11 management purpose, I first must identify the direction and amount by which NII needs to be managed to meet targeted NII. As defined in equation (5), this is measured by the difference between the N11 target (NIIT) and unmanaged NII (UNII). 2’ Most previous studies (e.g., Kim and Koppenhaver, 1992; Jagtiani, 1996; Carter and Sinkey, 1998) use total notional amounts to examine the relationship between the use of interest rate swaps and bank characteristics. 28 DIFFi, = N117}, — W11” (5) N117}, = N1M,,_l ~AEA,-, (6) where, N117}, : net interest income target for bank i in period t UNIIi, : unmanaged net interest income for bank i in period t NIM,,_1 : net interest margin percentage (N II/average interest-earning assets) for bank i in period t-I AEA;, : average interest-earning assets for bank i in period t Similar to the prior year net income threshold used by Degeorge et al. (1999), this study bases its net interest income target (N117},) on the prior year’s net interest margin percentage (N1M,-,_1).2" In specific, to control for annual changes in the net earning assets of sample banks, NIIT“ is estimated in equation (6) by multiplying prior year’s NIM,,_1 by current year’s average earnings assets (ABA), ). If UNII is less than NII target, HI predicts that bank managers will use RF swaps to manage NII upward. Similarly, if UNII is greater than reported NII, then H] predicts that bank managers will use RV swaps to manage NII downward. To estimate unmanaged net interest income (UNII), a firrn-specific NIM beta (flu) is estimated in equation (7) by regressing the individual banks’ quarterly NIM (NIMiq) on the average historical quarterly industry NIM (INDNIMq ). NIMiq = pm + ,BUINDNIMq + 5,, (7) where, NIMiq: net interest margin percentage (N II/average interest-earning assets) for bank i at quarter q INDNIMq: industry average net interest margin percentage in quarter q 2‘ Net interest margin is defined as ratio of N11 to average earning assets. 1 selected it as the target because my examination of 36 bank earnings releases in 2002 indicated that 31 of these banks compare current period’s NIM and/or N11 to same amount in the prior period when assessing bank performance. 29 To estimate equation (7), I use a maximum of 32 and a minimum of at least 24 of the 32 quarterly observations immediately prior to the target period.25 Equation (7) derives Bu , which captures the firm Specific NIM sensitivity to industry average NIM. Each bank’s unmanaged NIM (UNIMH) then is obtained by plugging the estimated betas from equation (7) and the test period’s quarterly industry average NIM into equation (8). .— 4 A A UN1M,-t = 2 (,6,0 + ,Bi’llNDNIMq) (8) (H where, UNIM 11: predicted value of unmanaged net interest margin for bank i at year t INDNIMq: industry average net interest margin percentage in quarter q To control for periodic changes in banks net interest earnings assets (like in equation (6)), this unmanaged NIM is multiplied by current year’s average interest- eaming assets to get UNII as in equation (9). UNI!“ = UNIMu -AEA,-, (9) where, UNIIi, : unmanaged net interest income for bank i at year t UNIMu: predicted value of unmanaged net interest margin for bank i at yeart AEAi, : average interest-earning assets for bank i at year t DIFF (as defined in equation (5)) reflects the difference between target (NIIT) and unmanaged net interest income (UN 11) and is used to define the degree to which bank 25 At least 24 observations are used to estimate equation (7) to (i) improve stability of regression estimates, and (ii) minimize any effects that prior period earnings management may have on equation (7) estimates by increasing the probability that the regression observations reflect periods in which NII was managed both upward and downward and, therefore, increasing the probability that earnings management effects are averaged away in the estimation procedure. 30 managers seek to manage NII. If banks manage NII using swaps, DIF F should be associated with the ANETSWAP (A(RFSWAP-RVSWAP)) position after controlling for changes in swaps due to risk management purposes. If the DIFF is positive, it implies that banks have an incentive to manage NII upward by increasing RF swap positions. Increasing RF swap positions causes a positive ANETSWAP and, therefore, a positive coefficient on DIFF. Similarly, a negative DIFF implies that banks have an incentive to manage NII downward by decreasing their ANETSWAP (by increasing RV swaps), which again suggests a positive coefficient on DIFF”. Thus, to test HI, I assess whether a] in equation (4) is positive. 2. Hypothesis 2 H2 predicts that after increasing swap positions for N11 management in the current period, bank managers may attempt to immediately offset these positions in subsequent periods to mitigate the deleterious risk management effects caused by entering into NII management swaps. However, this action may neither be cost-effective nor feasible because the ability to achieve perfect offset becomes increasingly more difficult as the current period interest rate yield curve changes during the time period after swaps are entered into to manage NII. To test whether or not bank managers find it cost-effective to immediately enter into offsetting swap positions in the subsequent period, I add DIFFi,_1 to equation (4). 2" The test documented in the text assumes increases in net swap positions can occur by either entering into RF swaps or failing to replace matured RV swaps. Similarly, decreases in net swap positions are assumed to occur by entering into RV swaps or failing to replace matured RF swaps. 31 ANETSWAP” = so + 5101”}, + 52 DIFF,H + 63AGAP1Y,, + 64ALTGAP,, + 5,, (10) where: ANETSWAP: Change in net swap positions, i.e., A(RFSWAP-RVSWAP), where RFSWAP (RVSWAP) is notional amounts of RF swaps (RV swaps). ANETSWAP is deflated by beginning total assets. DIF F: NII target — Unmanaged NII deflated by beginning total assets, AGAPIY: Change in l-year GAP deflated by beginning total assets. ALTGAP: Change in long-term GAP deflated by beginning total assets. DIFF,“ is used to assess if banks manage their NII upward by entering into RF swaps at t-I, whether banks also enter into RV swaps at t to offset the N11 management effects in subsequent periods. If this is true, then DIFF},_1 should be negatively associated with ANEI’SWAP,, . Similarly, if banks manage their NII downward by entering into RV swaps at t-I, then DIFF},_1 should be negatively associated with ANE T SWAP,, if offsetting swaps are entered into in period t. Therefore, if bank managers find it cost-effective to enter into offsetting swap to mitigate interest risk, I predict 62 to be negative. However, if bank managers do not find it cost-effective to make such offsetting swap acquisition, 52 will be zero. The expected signs on the other variables are the same as in equation (4). 32 CHAPTER VI: SAMPLE AND DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS 1. Sample Panel A of Table 6 describes the sample selection process. To identify swap users, I start with all risk management derivative activities reported in bank holding companies’ regulatory data (FR Y-9C) from 1995 to 2002. I found that 598 banks (2,073 observations) report non-zero derivative notional amounts including swaps. From this list, I delete banks (bank-year observations) that do not meet the following conditions. First, Beatty et al. (2002) show that public banks have a much greater proclivity to manage earnings than do private banks. Therefore, I include only public banks in the sample and delete a total of 267 private banks (618 observations). Second, to ensure that sample banks were active derivative users, I also excluded 101 banks (101 observations) having only one non-zero derivative observation in FR Y-9C reports. Finally, because FR Y-9C reports provide income information on a calendar year basis, I deleted 9 banks (26 observations) having non-December 31 fiscal year-ends. These sample selection criteria create an initial sample of 221 banks (1,328 bank-year observations) that are active derivative users. INSERT TABLE 6 HERE For these 221 active derivative users, I manually collected information from annual reports about swap activities accounted for as hedges. For these sample banks, I 33 deleted 36 banks (519 observations) because they did not use interest rate swaps during the sample period. Since at least 24 quarter observations are needed to estimate NIM beta, and first differences are used to construct variables, a total of 39 banks (263 observations) also are excluded from the sample due to missing data. The final sample consists of 146 banks (546 observations). Panel B of Table 6 provides the number of final sample observations by year. The numbers of banks are evenly distributed across the sample period. 2. Descriptive Statistics Panel A of Table 7 reports overall swap positions of sample banks. Average investments in RF swaps as a percentage of total assets are almost two times greater than for RV swaps. Specifically, the notional amounts of RF swaps are on average 5.24% of total assets, while the notional amounts of RV swaps are 2.01% of total assets on average. Figure 6 graphs the trend of sample banks’ swap usage from 1996 to 2002. For RV swaps, the mean notional amounts deflated by total assets are stable over the sample period. In contrast, the mean notional amounts of RF swaps deflated by total assets are decreasing over the sample period. One interesting item is the dramatic decrease in RF swaps in the FAS No. 133 adoption year (2001). However, the trend recovers in 2002. INSERT TABLE 7 & FIGURE 6 HERE 34 To determine whether swap usage is significantly different before and after FAS No. 133, I test for differences in the mean notional swap amounts deflated by total assets. The results are reported in Panel B of Table 7. While the mean difference in RV swaps between pre- and post-FAS No. 133 is not significant, the mean of RF swaps before FAS No. 133 is significantly greater than after FAS No. 133. The notional amounts of RF swaps before F AS No. 133 is 5.67% of total assets, but only 4.07% after FAS No. 133. This difference, however, is driven by the decline in RF swap usage in the FAS No. 133 adoption year. In the year subsequent to FAS No. 133 adoption, the mean difference in RF swap usage between the pre- and post-period is not statistically significant. To better understand the nature of sample banks, 1 compare firm-characteristics of sample (swap-using) banks to non-swap using banks. Panel A of Table 8 tabulates this comparison. From a sample of banks indicating in FR Y-9C that they registered with the SEC, I find 815 non-swap users (3,504 observations) from 1996 to 2002. My sample banks (146 banks) therefore comprise 15.2% of swap-using and non-swap using banks, suggesting that only a small percentage of banks use swaps. Average total assets of swap users ($42 billion) are significantly greater than that of non-swap users ($910 million). This is consistent with previous studies showing that larger banks are more likely to use swaps (e.g., Booth et al., 1984; Kim and Koppenhaver, 1992). The average NIM for non- swap-using banks is slightly greater than swap-using banks, but the difference is not statistically significant. INSERT TABLE 8 HERE 35 I also compare maturity gaps between users and non-users. Swap users’ GAPlY (13.39% of total assets) is significantly greater than non-users (2.33% of total assets). In contrast, swap users’ LTGAP (2.56% of total assets) is significantly less than non-users (12.97% of total assets). While swap users’ GAPlY and LTGAP are both positive, GAPIY is significantly larger than LTGAP. Thus, if banks are primarily entering into swaps for risk management purposes, this suggests a greater demand for RF swaps than RV swaps because RF swaps provide the mechanism to manage short-term interest rate risk, i.e., GAPIY. Consistent with this prediction, I find that average notional amount of RF swaps ($4.6 billion) is greater than the notional amount of RV swaps ($1.6 billion) during the sample period. The direction of N11 management uSing either RF or RV swaps depends on whether interest rate yield curves during the sample periods are upward or downward sloping. Figure 7 plots monthly averages interest rate yields from 1995 to 2002 for 3- month, 6-month, l-year, 3-year, 5-year, and lO-year constant maturity treasury bills. Except for long-term maturities in the year 2000, yield curves are uniformly upward sloping. Given this yield curve environment, RF swaps (RV swaps) generally can be used to increase (decrease) earnings in the early periods of contracts, as predicted in hypothesis 1. INSERT FIGURE 7 HERE 36 Given the general upward sloping interest rate yield curves, I estimate the potential change in N11 from entering into swaps during the sample period. To compute this estimate, I multiplied the difference in interest rates between the fixed and variable legs of sample firms’ swaps by the annual change in the notional amount of swaps for the period.27 In this calculation, I do not separate out the income effects of swaps used for risk management and earnings management purposes. Results are reported in Panel B of Table 8. For banks having positive net effects of swaps on N11, the mean dollar magnitude of the net effect is $18 million. On average, these banks increase NII by 8 cents per share using swaps. Similarly, for banks having negative net effects of swaps on N11, the mean dollar magnitude of the net effect is negative $16 million. These banks, on average, decrease NII by 6 cents per share using swaps. Table 9 shows descriptive statistics for the variables used to test hypothesis 1 and 2. All variables are deflated by beginning total assets. Average ANETSWAP is 0.5% of beginning total assets. Average AGAPIY and ALTGAP are 2.2% and 0.04% of beginning total assets, respectively. Average DIFF is -0.15% of beginning total assets.28 Panel B of Table 9 shows pairwise correlations among variables. Consistent with hypothesis 1, ANETSWAP is positively (negatively) associated with AGAPIY (ALTGAP). In addition, the pairwise correlations between AGAPI Y and ALTGAP and DIFF, and DIFF,_1 are ~0.93 and 0.44, respectively. Both these correlations are statistically significant, suggesting potential multicollinearity problem. To assess the 27 In this calculation, 1 use current swaps’ weighted average fixed interest rates. The estimated economic effects of decreased swaps may not be accurate because information about fixed interest rates is absent for swaps that no longer exist. 28 For the majority of sample banks, the NIM betas used in to estimate DIF F are positive and statistically significant. However, estimated firm-specific NIM betas have a large cross-sectional variation. Sample banks’ mean NIM beta and standard deviation are 0.08 and 0.17, respectively. 37 extent of this problem, I estimate the variance inflation factor (VIF) for each of the variables included in equations (4) and (10). VIF values for D] F}, , AGAPII’,, and LT GAP,, in equation (4) are 1.02, 7.75 and 7.79, respectively. The VIF values for DIFP},, DIFP},_1, AGAPIY,, and LT GAP” in equation (10) are 1.24, 1.25, 6.86 and 6.92, respectively. Neter et al. (1996) suggest that mean VIF values considerably larger than 1 are indicative of serious multicollinearity problems. Therefore, it appears that multicollinearity problems exist in both equations and tests of the significance on AGAPIY and ALTGAP may be affected.29 Due to this concern, I first test the compound effects of the risk management variables by testing whether AGAPIY or ALTGAP are jointly significant in both equations (4) and (10). Next, to separately evaluate the magnitude and Sign of the coefficients on the risk management variable absent any influence due to collinearity, I also estimate two separate regressions containing either AGAPIY or ALTGAP only. INSERT TABLE 9 HERE 29 However, the low VIF for DIFF suggests that the high degree of correlation between AGAPI Y and ALTGAP will not cause bias in DIF F coefficient (Wooldridge, 1999). 38 CHAPTER VII: RESULTS Table 10 reports regression results relating to H1. The regression model assesses whether annual changes in net swap positions can be explained in terms of two sets of variables; one relating to risk management effects (AGAPlY and ALTGAP), and the other relating to N1] management (DIFF). In terms of the risk management variables, equation (4) predicts changes in net swap positions are positively and negatively associated with AGAPIY and ALTGAP, respectively. For equation (4), the coefficient on AGAPlY is significantly positive, but the coefficient on ALTGAP is positive and not statistically significant. However, as mentioned in Chapter VI, there are significant collinearity issues with the AGAPIY and ALTGAP variables. To better isolate the sign and statistical significance of these two variables, I first test whether AGAPIY and ALTGAP are jointly significant. The associated F-test indicates significance at the 1% level. I also estimate two separate regressions that only included either AGAPIY or ALTGAP. Individual coefficients on the risk management variables in these regressions behave as predicted. The coefficients on AGAPIY and ALTGAP are significantly positive and negative, respectively. The joint results, therefore, indicate that net swap positions are positively and negatively associated with AGAPIY and ALTGAP, respectively, suggesting that banks change their net swap positions for risk management purposes. INSERT TABLE 10 HERE 39 Given this risk management relationship, I next examine whether banks also manage net swap positions for N11 management purposes. The coefficient on DIFF is positive and significant across each of the different regression specifications. Therefore, it appears that changes in swap positions are related to NII management after controlling for changes in interest rate risk. These results are consistent with HI . Table 11 presents estimates of equation (10), which are used to assess whether banks enter into opposite swap positions in the subsequent period to offset the increased risk induced by entering into swaps for N11 management. Despite adding the lagged DIFF variable to the estimated regression, the inferences remain the same for variables common to equation (4) and (10). The coefficient on AGAPlY is significantly positive, but the coefficient on ALTGAP is positive and not statically significant. An F-test indicates that AGAPIY and ALTGAP are jointly Significant at 5% significance level. Similarly, individual coefficients on AGAPIY and ALTGAP reported in column 4 and 5 of Table 11 are significantly positive and negative, respectively. Therefore, the results of the relationship between changes in net swap positions and AGAPI Y or ALTGAP remains the same as before. INSERT TABLE II HERE In terms of the DIFF variables, the coefficient on DIF F remains positive and significant, again suggesting that sample banks acquire swaps to manipulate current period NII. In regards to H2, however, the coefficient on lagged DIFF is negative as 40 predicted, but not Significant. This implies that current changes in net swap positions are not associated with prior year’s DIFF, counter to predictions in H2. A possible explanation is that strictly maintaining risk management equilibrium by entering into offsetting swap positions is not cost-effective. Managers instead seem to consider subsequent periods’ earnings and risk management positions before entering into new swap positions in the subsequent period. 41 CHAPTER VIII: CONCLUSIONS This study examines whether interest rate swaps are used as earnings management tools by banks. Current and past hedge accounting models permit bank managers to increase (decrease) NII by predetermined amounts by acquiring RF swaps (RV swaps). I examine whether banks managers exploit this opportunity to manage NII. I provide evidence that after controlling for risk management-based swap acquisitions, banks also change swap'positions to manage NII. Specifically, I provide evidence suggesting that if unmanaged N11 is below management’s target for N11, banks increase investments in RF swaps to increase NII. Similarly, I provide evidence suggesting that if unmanaged N11 is above management’s target for N11, banks increase investments in RV swaps to defer N11 to future periods. Using swaps for earnings management purposes, however, is not costless because it causes banks’ net swap position to deviate from risk management equilibrium. As a result, I also test whether managers enter into offsetting swap positions in subsequent periods to mitigate additional risk induced by entering into swaps for earnings management purposes. My research findings Show that this is not the case. A possible explanation is that the decision to enter into new swap positions in the subsequent period depends primarily on current period interest rate changes and the distance from the current NII target. In sum, this study provides evidence that bank managers exploit accounting permitted by current and past hedge accounting models to manage NII. This research contributes to the literature by documenting for the first time that swaps are used for both 42 earnings and risk management purposes. Interestingly, it should be noted that if the FASB were to adopt a full fair value accounting model for financial instruments, as foreshadowed in FAS No. 133, then bank managers will lose the opportunity to exploit the accounting model by acquiring swaps for earnings management purposes. 43 Figure 1. Interest Rate Swap between Bank A and Bank B Bank A 11.85% X $1 million ‘ LIBOR X $1 million Bank B Figure 2. Fair Value and Cash Flow Hedges of Loans using a Swap 11.85%X $1M Loan Bank A 11.85% X $1M ‘LIBOR x $1M Fair Value Hedge Bank B LIBOR X $1M Loan Cash Flow Hedge Figure 3. Cash Flow Hedge of a Variable-Rate Liability using a RV Swap LIBOR X $1M V Liability Bank A 11.85%X$1M A LIBOR X $1M Bank B 11.85%X$IM Cash Flow Hedge 44 Fair Value Hedge ' Liability Figure 4. Spot and Forward Rate Yield Curves A Rate 14.03% Forward Rate 12.01% Spot Rate 12% 10% l l 1 4' Time to maturity l-year 2-year 3-year Figure 5. Relationship between Forward Rate and Net Cash Flows of Swaps3o A Forward rate Upward- sloping yield curve a % ’ Positive Negative Net Net Cash Flows Cash Flows Maturity I 3° Hull (1997), p. 125. 45 53> NOON room Doom . mam r mam _. now P 0mm w p P b F L! b P 2582 a<>>m>m Tl-\-/ullil-\-ll.l- llllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll Z>w>m IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII ZSDMS. n_<>>wn_m IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII llllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll Z>wn_m IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII Z<_Dms_ n_<>>w>m III Z>w>m IT Z<_Dms_ n_<>>wn_m I Z>wmmlol rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr ..-_.o.o -mod -wod 4... ~ £55m. bod -mod $0.0 rmod «can 3 mag So...— 5094 .5313 oust—33A— ? maakm 3mm :28:— ue «55:2. .235: Z me 5:52 an :32 e 9...»:— 46 NOON ll FOON IT OOON IOI OOOr lxl OOOFI+TI NOOr + OOOrIfiTI OOOF 1.1 areas. 39.8 58$ 58>.” .8: 582A. £82-” ll 7 .. . . OOON. NOON . OOOF .i>r . lllltxiinnnnnnnnnnnu Eco .1 I OOOP , 88 xllllilixlllllixlllll OOO w KOO w mOO F 88 s 32 EE. 8:5 22> Sam .85.: a. ESE (%) mu 189mm 47 Table 1. Average US. Commercial Banks’ Income Components as a Percentage of Total Assets Medium Sized Banks All Banks 10 Largest Banks (Ranked 101 through 1000) Income and expenses as a percentage of average net consolidated assets Interest revenue ' 5.29 4.78 ' 5.88 Interest expense (1.80) (1.65) (1.94) Net interest income 3.50 3.13 3.94 Loan loss provision (0.68) (0.73 (0.54) Net interest income after loan loss provision 2.82 2.40 3.40 Non-interest income 2.53 2.32 2.38 Non-interest expense (3.46) (3.15) (3.74) Gains on investment account securities 0.10 0.13 0.04 Income before taxes 1.98 1.69 2.08 Taxes (0.65) (0.57) (0.69) Net income 1.33 1.12 1.40 Source: Federal Reserve Bulletin, “Profits and Balance Sheet Developments at US. Commercial Banks in 2002,” June 2003. The statistics are based on regulatory call report; thus represent commercial banks, not bank holding companies. 48 Table 2. Effective Interest Rates after using Swaps Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 LIBOR 10.00% 12.01% 14.03% Loan Interest Inflows 11.85% 11.85% 11.85% BankA Swap-Receive Variable 10.00% 12.01% 14.03% Swap-Pay Fixed (11.85%) (11.85%) (1 1.85%) Effective Int. Rate 10.00% 12.01% 14.03% Loan Interest Inflows 10.00% 12.01% 14.03% Ban k B Swap-Receive Fixed 11.85% 1 1.85% 11.85% Swap-Pay Variable (10.00%) (12.01%) (14.03%) Effective Int. Rate 1 1.85% 11.85% 1 1.85% 49 Table 3. Spot and Forward Interest Rates Spot rate for n-year investment Forward rate for nth year Year (n) o o (/o per annum) (/o per annum) l 10% 2 1 1% 12.01 % 3 12% 14.03% Table 4. Cash Flows from a RF Swap Expected . Expected PV of Date 1:333]? Variable Eégfithflilgzd Net Net Cash Cash Outflows Cash Flows Flows Jan. 1, Year 1 Dec.3l, Year 1 10.00% $100,000 $118,500 + $18,500 $16,818 Dec.31, Year 2 12.01% $120,100 $118,500 - $ 1,600 - $ 1,299 Dec.31, Year 3 14.03% $140,300 $118,500 - $21,800 - $15,517 Total $360,400 $355,500 — $ 4,900 $ 031 3' 18,500+ -l,600 + —21,800 =0(rounding error) (1+0J) (140.11)2 (1+0.12)3 50 an; 05 .«o Spam 38285 “0 Z ”223+: «283+: 8:0 OE .58 . I u + A .e Coon M: Seal 80.7 a O O OOmd 5 _ 30> Jm .009 «a 953:: :80 O0N=e0m ”38.3% I So..— 02e> ham ONOKE I 8ng I OOm.w~ E OOmdzm 38.3 m 30> .3003 Owe; m I OOO; m I OOm.w:O OO_.ON_O .XLO.N~ N 30> ._m.o0Q “Rama — QQ we 032m :80 0269: :30 950530 :80 moms 0 E :80 “02 ~02 35m 3803mm 0Eeta> ORB—om 3Q .«o >m . Buoomxm a 8:0.— 3 Ea 2.. 3 92am .5— 220 385 25:85 .02 Begum .n asap 5] Table 6 Descriptive Statistics for Sample Banks Panel A. Sample selection procedures # of Banks # of Observations Banks that report non-zero derivative notional amounts in Y9-C data from 1995 to 2002 598 2,073 Private banks (267) (618) Only one observation of non-zero derivative notional amounts reported in Y9-C (101) (101) Non December fiscal year end (9) (29 Total derivative users 221 1,328 Non-swap observations (36) (519) Total swap users 185 809 Missing data due to first differencing and NIM beta estimation (39) (263) Final sample 146 546 Panel B. 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E 33%, .2: some .02 E s N M: S E Eczema some $2 a? no mg 2.0 woo- E 33 32% 22 3.225 :2 mad mg o: 33 : E “Eamemz’u 358m son .3 8 EB: :32 5 z 2&5, =2 8 38% Q2 :0 395% 8.8%» SESSQM .m 323% 5 5 Panel A. Descriptive statistics for variables in regression model Table 9 Descriptive Statistics for Variables in Regression Model Variable N Q1 Mean Median Q3 Std. Dev. ANETSWAP 546 -0.0128 0.0053 0 0.0192 0.0427 DIFF} 546 -0.0043 -0.0015 -0.0016 0.0016 0.0064 DIFF,_, 490* 0.0033 -0.0008 -0.0006 0.0022 0.0061 AGAPIY 546 -0.0421 0.0222 0.0135 0.0756 0.1331 ALT GAP 546 -0.0566 0.0004 0.0062 0.0640 0.1263 Panel B. Pearson correlation (p-value) DIFF, DIFFH 1 AGA P1 Y ALTGAP 0.094 0.024 0.121 -0.093 METSWAP (0.028) (0.595) (0.005) (0.031) 0.437 -0.044 0.082 DIFF’ (< .0001) (0.309) (0.056) 1 -0.086 0.125 D [F FH (0.057) (0.006) -0.933 AGAPIY (< .0001) ASSET: Total assets ANETSWAP: Change in net swap positions which is the difference between RF swaps and RV swaps, i.e., A(RFSWAP-RVSWAP). This variable is deflated by beginning total assets. DIFF: The difference between NII target and unmanaged NII deflated by beginning total assets. Positive (negative) DIF F represents the magnitude by which unmanaged NII misses (meets) target NII. AGAPIY: Change in l-year maturity gap deflated by beginning total assets. ALTGAP: Change in long-term gap deflated by beginning total assets. T: Correlation of DIFF}_1 is based on 490 observations. 57 observations are excluded from the analysis due to insufficient data to calculate the lagged first difference in DIFF. 56 Table 10 Regression Results for H1 Variable Expected sign Coefficrent Estlmate (Standard Error) Intercept 0.00444" 0.00534'" 0.00627"“' (0.00206) (0.00188) (0.00186) DIFE-z + 0.62599“ 0.66044“ 0.67899“ (0.28399) (0.28217) (0.28366) AGA p] y“ + 0.07771" 0.04017‘” (0.03784) (0.01361) ALTGAP“ 0.04251 —0.03410” (0.03998) (0.01442) N 546 546 546 Adj. R2 0.0211 0.0209 0.0153 ANETSWAP: Change in net swap positions which is the difference between RF swaps and RV swaps, i.e., A(RFSWAP-RVSWAP). This variable is deflated by beginning total assets. DIFF: The difference between target N11 and unmanaged NII deflated by beginning total assets. Positive (negative) DIFF represents the magnitude by which unmanaged NII misses (meets) target NII. AGAPlY: Change in l-year maturity gap deflated by beginning total assets. ALTGAP: Change in long-term gap deflated by beginning total assets. :I' Significant at the 0.01 level for a two-tailed t-test Significant at the 0.05 level for a two-tailed t-test 57 Table 11 Regression Results for H2 ANETSWAP” = 60 + 61DIFFi, + 62DIFFi,_1 + 53AGAP1YI, + 5,;ALTGAP” + 81°, Coefficient Estimate Variable Expected sign (Standard Error) Intercept 0.00466" 0.00582'" 0.00679‘" (0.00222) (0.00202) (0.00201) mm + 0.68699” 0.70924” 0.71917" (0.33538) (0.33508) (0.33635) DIF5,_, — -0.1 1956 -0.08203 0.07977 (0.35683) (0.35574) (0.35774) AGAplyit + 0.08826“ 0.04195‘” (0.04047) (0.01552) ALTGAP” — 0.05305 0.03319" (0.04281 ) (0.01648) N 490* 490 490 Adj. R2 0.0190 0.0179 0.0114 ANETSWAP: Change in net swap positions which is the difference between RF swaps and RV swaps, i.e., A(RFSWAP-RVSWAP). This variable is deflated by beginning total assets. DIFF: The difference between target N11 and unmanaged NII deflated by beginning total assets. Positive (negative) DIF F represents the magnitude by which unmanaged NII misses (meets) the target NII. AGAPlY: Change in l-year maturity gap deflated by beginning total assets. ALTGAP: Change in long-term gap deflated by beginning total assets. m Significant at the 0.01 level for a two-tailed t—test " Significant at the 0.05 level for a two-tailed t-test T: 56 observations are excluded from the analysis due to insufficient data to calculate the lagged first difference in DIFF. 58 APPENDIX HEDGE ACCOUNTING FOR INTEREST RATE SWAPS PRE- AND POST-F AS NO. 133 59 A. Before the Adoption of FAS No. 133 Before the adoption of F AS No. 133, there was no level (a) authoritative accounting guidance for interest rate swaps (Herz, 1994).” 34 Emerging Issues Task Force (EITF) Issues Nos. 84-7 and 84-36 provided the only accounting guidance. These EITF issues address the accounting at inception (84-36) and termination of an interest rate swap (84-7). This guidance can be summarized as follows (Wishon and Chevalier, 1985;1-1erz, 1994): 0 Swaps not designated as hedging instruments are recorded at fair value in balance sheet and changes in fair values are recognize as unrealized gains or losses in net income (not N11). 0 For swaps designated as hedge instruments, 0 Swaps are recognized at historical cost (usually zero) in the balance sheet and interest income and expense is adjusted by periodic net cash settlements under the swap contract. 0 Gains or losses from the termination should be deferred and recognized when offsetting gains or losses on hedged items are recognized. B. After the Adoption of FAS No. 133 A fundamental decision made by the FASB in F AS No. 133 is that derivative instruments should be measured at fair value, because fair value is the most relevant attribute for derivative financial instruments. 33 Statement on Auditing Standards (SAS) No. 69, The Meaning of ‘Present Fairly in Conformity with Generally Accepted Accounting Principles ’ in the Independent Auditor ’3 Report, specifies five levels in the GAAP hierarchy with level (a) being the most authoritative. EITF Issues are found in level (c). 34 In contrast, accounting guidance for currency swaps were explicitly addressed by Financial Accounting Standard Board Statement No. 52 (FAS No. 52), Foreign Currency Translation in the period prior to FAS No. 133. 60 Under FAS No. 133, interest rate swaps either (1) are treated as stand-alone instruments or (2) can be designated as either a fair value hedge or cash flow hedge. Stand-alone derivatives are fair valued in the balance sheet with changes in these fair values recognized in current net income as unrealized gains or losses. In a fair value hedge, a derivative is entered into to hedge the exposure to change in fair value of an asset or liability. In a cash flow hedge, a derivative is entered into to hedge the exposure to variable cash flows. If swaps are accounted for as a fair value hedge: (1) N11 income captures the net periodic cash settlements under the swap, and (2) unrealized gains or losses on the hedging instruments and the hedged items are recognized in earnings as they occur. Therefore, the net effect on earnings from (2) is limited to the extent to which the hedge is not effective in offsetting changes in fair values. This is called hedge ineffectiveness. In contrast, if swaps are accounted for as a cash flow hedge, FAS No. . 133 requires that (1) N11 income captures the net periodic cash settlements under the swap, and (2) to the extent a hedge is effective, unrealized gains or losses on derivatives are reported initially in other comprehensive income (OCI) and reclassified into earnings at the time the hedged item affects earnings. The ineffective portion of a cash flow hedge derivative is recognized in earnings immediately. C. Example As initially presented in Chapter III, suppose that (1) BankA has $1 million of 3- year, variable-rate (l-year LIBOR) assets, and (2) Bank B also has $1 million of 3-year, fixed-rate (11.85%) assets. Bank A’s assets reprice at the end of each year. Bank A wants to hedge its cash flow risk and Bank B wants to hedge its fair value risk. Thus, they agree 6] to enter into a swap contract. Under this swap agreement, Bank A pays to Bank B variable interest rate on $1 million. At the same time, Bank A receives from Bank B fixed interest (11.85%) on $1 million. This swap is a RF swap for BankA and a RV swap for Bank B. Given the current yield curve in Figure 4, cash flows for Bank A and Bank B are as follows: D t Jan. 1,Yearl Dec.3l,Yearl Dec.31,Year2 Dec.3l,Year3 a 8 Cash Flows Cash Flows Expected CF Expected CF Spot Rate 10% l 1.00% 12.00% Forward Rate 12.01% 14.03% B Variable-Rate 100,000 120,100 140,300 A Asset (1 ,000,000)35 1,000,000 2 Swap-Rec. Fixed 118,500 118,500 118,500 Swap-Pay Var. (100,000) (120,100) (140,300) A Total (1,000,000) 1 18,500 1 18,500 1,1 18,500 B . 118,500 118,500 118,500 A F‘xed'Rate ASS“ (1 ,000,000)36 1,000,000 fl Swap-Rec. Var. 100,000 120,100 140,300 4 Swap-Pay Fixed (1 18,500) (118,500) (118,500) B Total (1 ,000,000) 100,000 120,100 140,300 Table A. Cash Flows from Assets and Swaps At the end of Year 1, under F AS No. 133, Bank A and Bank B need to know the fair value of both the swap and their assets to be able to mark them to market. Suppose one-year and two-year spot rates at the end of the Year 1 are 12% and 13%, respectively. Then, the fair values (i.e., present value of expected cash flows discounted at expected spot interest rate) of the assets and swap at the end of Year 1 are as follows: 35 100,000 120,1002 +1,140,300 =1,000,000 (1+0J) (1+0.11) (1+0.12) 36 118,500 118,500 "”8’500=1,000,000 + + (1+0J) (140.11)2 (1+0.12)3 62 Dec. 31, Year 2 Dec. 31, Year 3 . . Date Expected CF Expected CF Fair Value Gain/Loss Spot Rate 12% 13% Forward Rate 14.01% Variable-Rate 120,000 140,100 B Asset 1,000,000 1,000,000 0 I131 Swap-Rec. Fixed 118,500 118,500 K Swap-Pay Var. (120,000) (140,100) A Swap-Net (1,500) (21,600) (18,268)37 (18,268) Total 118,500 1,118,500 981,732 0C1 (18,268) . 118,500 1 18,500 B F‘Xed'Ra‘e Asset 1,000,000 981,73238 (18,268) g Swap-Rec. Var. 120,000 140,100 K Swap-Pay Fixed (118,500) (118,500) Swap-Net 1,500 21,600 18,268 18,268 B Total 120,000 140,100 1,000,000 N3 Table B. Fair Values of the Bank A and Bank B’s Assets & Swaps at the end of Year 1 Before adoption of FAS No. 133, BankA’s journal entries for Year 1 are provided in Table C. Since prior to F AS No. 133 fair value recognition of the swap and hedged item is not required by the hedge accounting model, only the interest on the hedged item and the net positive interest rate effect from the RF swap is recognized in N11. 37 -1,500 + —21,600 (1+0.12) (1+0.13)2 38 118,500 +1,118,500 (HO-12) (140.13)2 = —18, 268 (rounding error) = 981, 732 (rounding error) 63 Before FAS No. 133 (Bank A, RF swap) 01-01-Year 1 12-31-Year l Assets 1 ,000,000 Cash 1 00,000 Cash 1,000,000 Interest Revenue 1 00,000 (Record investment) (Record interest on assets) Cash 18,500 Interest Revenue 18,500 (Record cash flow from swap) Table C. Bank A’s Journal Entries before FAS No. 133 Each bank’s journal entries for Year] after FAS No. 133 adoption are provided in Table D. The first column of Table D represents journal entries when Bank A’s RF swap is not designated as a hedge, and therefore, treated as a stand-alone derivative.39 If swaps are not designated as a hedge, the income statement effects of the swap affect net income not NII. Moreover, changes in fair value of swaps mitigate the earnings increasing effects from net cash settlements under the RF swap on net income. Specifically, BankA can increase its non-interest income by entering into the RF swap by $18,500. However, due to the recognition of the fair value loss on the swap (loss $18,268) the net effect on earnings is only $232. The second column of Table D presents Year 1 journal entries when BankA’s RF swap is accounted for as a cash flow hedge. Bank A’s RF swap increases NII by $18,500. This positive effect is not mitigated by fair value loss on the swap because to the extent it is effective changes in the fair value of the swap are reported in OCI under a cash flow hedge. Therefore, to the extent it is effective in Year 1 of the hedge, the fair valuation of the swap itself does not have an effect on earnings under a cash flow hedge. 39 The same accounting was prescribed for trading swaps prior to FAS No. 133. 64 $3.5» vna 8nd; 5050: 0880.90 05 00:00 mownunu 000.. 0000005 0800985 000E. ..x._c.3 one $2 0.3 0008 32005 0.8308 one «one 1300 £30532 633.3 vna $8.2 on 8 300098 0.3 m 30> ona N 80> nm 0008 000085 30308 one «on» 625005 Q85 2 8 man 62 man.— Lotn mow—«Em 13.52. .9 05.; $8.05 Go 898— E 8nd— _ E «3.8— E ”cud. @030. no Saw 03:00.33 NR 0888 «08005.82 83.x C 8080 no 00.2 03:00.53 088E $0085.52 83x: :2 cad— _ :2 25.9: :2 Send 3 08095 0080an 8m.m: 0338 0000005 Sodo— 0nn0>0m «308E 8m.w_ _ 030.00 000003 308035 0885 E08806 0835 608036 08an Am 030,—. 000 do?” no 03? HE @5093 3&5 n85. no flow cod—00.53 Am 055. 000 £an .3 02? new c.5005 8&5 0Ea2000¢ naBm mead. 03.33 903m 3&5 . 50 Am 030,—. 000 .50: @030: Ammmn mo 029, new 5 omnnno €305 Amwnmnnao 85 @8385 u mead—”toad; duke mo 029 new 3805 3&5 3002 895 0on0>0m 003005 ~m~ 0:505 00803582 303.8 833 eo 82 0.5283: 83: Go as Boga 9.30 3030 Bob Boa :30 3305 3030 Bob 3o: :08 E805 €850 Boa 3o: :80 08005 83: :80 83: Go 83: 2953 830 93.5 03095 .0883 23.3 nmao 93.5 :30 3008 no 60.8.5 @8005 3008 no «00085 B805 @0000 no “mobanm €805 cowfi: 0nn0>0x 00885 08.9: 355% 00835 08.2: . 0.505% «08005 sand: :30 89.9: :30 83x: :30 _ nook—WN— _ San—MA..— ~ B0>Amtfl $85002: @8005 .cnonnmo>5 @8005 $5800.02: @8005 ©86ch :80 8°68.— nmoo coeds; n30 . 0868.— 832 8°68.— 808< 2568.— 808.0. ~30>Jot8 _ 3053.8 :oflflzzc ago >n swoon 83> nab n «son 33... an 38: 3oz :88 0. «son 3 0.53 eeoawaon oz 65 The third column of Table D represents Year 1 journal entries when Bank B’s RV swap is accounted for as a fair value hedge. Bank B’s RV swap decreases NII by $18,500. The change in fair value of the swap is perfectly offset by the change in fair value of hedged item, resulting in zero effect on net income. This example in Table D represents the case of a perfect hedge. However, hedging is not always perfect because of (1) differences between the variable rate indices under the swap (e.g., LIBOR) and hedged item (e.g., prime rate) and/or (2) differences in critical terms between swaps and hedged items, such as notional amounts, maturities, interest payment dates. F AS No. 133 requires reporting any hedge ineffectiveness in earnings. Under the fair value hedge accounting, since the changes in fair value of both a hedged item and a hedging instrument are reported in income as they occur, the effective and ineffective amounts of the hedging relationship are recognized in earnings. In contrast under the cash flow hedge, the portion of the hedge income deferred in OCI is limited to the extent to which a hedging instrument protects against exposure to changes in cash flow risk. Therefore, the deferred amount reported in OCI represents the effective hedge amount. The ineffective portion of a cash flow hedge is reported immediately in net income. All hedging relationships should be assessed both prospectively and retrospectively as to whether the relationships have been and will be highly effective. If the hedge fails the effectiveness test at any time, the hedge ceases to qualify for hedge accounting. If certain conditions are met,“ FAS No. 133 allows a shortcut method to simplify necessary computations to determine hedge effectiveness (F AS No. 133, paragraph 68). 4' The following conditions should be met: (1) the notional amount of the swap matches the principal amount of hedged item, (2) the fair value of the swap is zero at the inception, (3) the formula for 66 If the shortcut method criteria are met, it is assumed that there is no hedge ineffectiveness. Under the shortcut method, banks compute and recognize immediately the fair values of swaps in the balance sheet. In addition, the fair value of the hedged items is adjusted by the same amount as the change in the fair value of the swap, guaranteeing perfect effectiveness. As a result, under the shortcut method, (1) there is no need to compute the fair values of the hedged item because a perfect hedge is assumed, and (2) a journal entry for hedge ineffectiveness is not necessary. Therefore, under the shortcut method, interest expense equals the net cash interest payment for the hedged item and swap (F AS No. 133, paragraph 118). Table E (on the next page) summarizes swaps’ effects on N11 and net income pre- and post-F AS No. 133 and provides the basis for the statements made about N11 and net income management in Chapter III. computing net settlements under the swap is the same for each net settlement, (4) the hedged item is not prepayable unless embedded call or put option mirrored in swap, and (5) index for variable leg of the swap is the same as hedged benchmark rate. 67 m2 62 m80b08 .n0>03om .0888 =2 m