. =€4 . 1.7.9 .c .x I. .,.7- 3' 3i; It“: 1 I 5 . :1 .fl. A AIR ~ # .. .. s.» .1... 4n"..- . .3. a». . . 5.... fl... . H..m.q...£¥mwm§?& . .1 nm 55 xi... . :v I ....; % cl}... :0 . 1 1': run. mam LIBRARY 9 , Michigan State . 000 . . Unuversuty This is to certify that the dissertation entitled POLITICAL INSTITUTIONS AND BUREAUCRATIC AUTONOMY IN THE US. REGULATORY POLICY PROCESS presented by Doo-Rae Kim has been accepted towards fulfillment of the requirements for the PhD. degree in Political Science 'gJIWV N» W Major Professor’s Signature M Ink i i . a 00 ST U r Date MSU is an Affinnalive Action/Equal Opportunity Institution --¢-c—c—o—-— - -o-o-o-n—n— .A PLACE IN RETURN BOX to remove this checkout from your record. To AVOID FINES return on or before date due. MAY BE RECALLED with earlier due date if requested. DATE DUE DATE DUE DATE DUE _._' —« POLITICAL INSTITUTIONS AND BUREAUCRATIC AUTONOMY IN THE US. REGULATORY POLICY PROCESS By Doo-Rae Kim A DISSERTATION Submitted to Michigan State University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY Department of Political Science 2005 ABSTRACT POLITICAL INSTITUTIONS AND BUREAUCRATIC AUTONOMY IN THE US. REGULATORY POLICY PROCESS By Doo-Rae Kim The proper role of bureaucracy and its unelected officials in democratic governance has long been a matter of controversy. One part of the debate involves the argument that democratic control and bureaucratic autonomy are opposites: if there is democratic control, there cannot be bureaucratic autonomy, and vice versa. This dissertation reveals that conditions of democratic control and bureaucratic autonomy are not incompatible in this fashion: government agencies are subject to political control to some extent but the agencies also can strategically maneuver among competing and divided political institutions to make autonomous policy choices. This research also shows that these institutional impacts on both bureaucratic responsiveness and bureaucratic autonomy are mediated by how policy preferences are distributed inside the bureaucratic agency. The varying degrees of bureaucratic policy bias influence the institutional dynamics of bureaucratic policy choices in predictable ways. Narratives of legislative policymaking on various issues of occupational safety and health and an extensive analysis of data on occupational safety and health enforcement provide evidence for the theoretical advancement. While the level of regulatory policy outputs of the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) was determined primarily by directional changes in the preference configuration of representative institutions in the policy space, bureaucrats’ autonomous policy choices regarding OSHA enforcement were determined by the degree of preference divergence among those political institutions. Moreover, the magnitude and significance of the effects of institutional interactions on regulatory behavior varied systematically with occupational safety and health agencies’ preference distributions, thereby supporting the general argument that bureaucratic responsiveness and bureaucratic autonomy can be better understood by considering the interplay of institutional relations and bureaucratic policy preferences. To the memory of my grandfather iv ACKNOWLEDGMENTS It gives me great pleasure to acknowledge those who have supported my research. Serving as chair of my guidance and dissertation committees, Professor Thomas H. Hammond has helped me tremendously from the beginning. Thanks to his detailed comments on numerous versions and his generous contribution of insightful thoughts, this work has been completed. I would also like to thank other members of my dissertation committee. Professor Belinda Davis has given me inspiring comments and generous help ever since I participated in her State Politics and Policy seminar. I benefited greatly from the comments and criticisms of Professors Burt Monroe and Ken Boyer. Thanks also are extended to Dr. Joseph DuBois of the Occupational Safety and Health Administration for his generous help in collecting IMIS data. During my years at Michigan State, I also benefited from support and help of many others. As the former graduate program director, Professor Brian Silver had offered me the generous support of scholarship. I thank the excellent staff of the Department of Political Science for their superb help in response to my countless requests of various sorts over the years. I also acknowledge the financial support of the Graduate Office for this dissertation research. I am deeply indebted to my beloved family in Korea and the US. My parents have always given me their unconditional love. Without their unwavering trust and support, I would have been unable to pursue my studies this far. I am very grateful to my parents-in-law for their kind words. Their encouragement offered me great comfort. I also sincerely thank my sister and brother for inviting me to go abroad while shouldering personal responsibilities on my behalf. I am grateful to my little ones, Dong Y001 and Lauren, for the happiness and joy they have brought into our home. They merit great credit for being patient with their busy father. Growing from a delicate young lady into a strong wife and mother, J iyoung has been a great partner in our journey from Seoul to East Lansing. Finally, I would like to acknowledge the profound influence of my late grandfather in my formative years. It is my honor to dedicate this dissertation to him. vi TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES ............................................................................................................. ix LIST OF FIGURES ............................................................................................................. x CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................... 1 1.1. Research Questions .......................................................................................... 7 1.2. Research Plan ................................................................................................. 1 1 CHAPTER 2 POLITICAL CONTROLS AND BUREAUCRATIC AUTONOMY ....... 13 2.]. Political Controls ............................................................................................ 14 2.1.1. Legislative Controls ........................................................................ 15 2.1.2. Presidential Controls ....................................................................... 18 2. 1 .3. Multi-Institutional Controls ............................................................ 21 2.2. Bureaucratic Autonomy ................................................................................. 27 2.2.1. Agent Problems ............................................................................... 30 2.2.2. Complexities of Hierarchy .............................................................. 32 2.2.3. Multilateral Institutional Relations ................................................. 34 2.3. Limitations of Past Research .......................................................................... 37 2.3.1. Conceptual Ambiguity: ‘Independence,’ ‘Noncompliance,’ and ‘Reciprocity’ ................................................................................... 38 2.3.2. The Omission of Collective Instituional Actions ............................ 42 2.3.3. Methodological Pitfalls ................................................................... 44 CHAPTER 3 THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK ............................................................. 48 3.1. A Spatial Model ............................................................................................. 51 3.1.1. Policy Disequilibrium and Policy Equilibrium ............................... 53 3.1.2. Policy Equilibrium Interval and Agency Actions ........................... 55 3.1.3. Heteroscedastic Distribution of Bureaucratic Policy Preferences ...................................................................................... 62 3.1 .4. Simulation ....................................................................................... 69 3.2. Veto Players ................................................................................................... 75 3.2.1. The Majoritarian Perspective .......................................................... 77 3.2.2. The Distributive Politics Perspective ............................................. 79 3.2.3. The Partisan Government Perspective ............................................ 80 3.3. Issue Characterisitcs ....................................................................................... 82 3.3.1 . Salience ........................................................................................... 82 3.3.2. Partisan Polarization ........................................................................ 83 3.4. Statistical Model: Bridging the Formal/Emprical Gap .................................. 86 CHAPTER 4 POLITICAL INSTITUTIONS AND OCCUPATIONAL SAFETY AND HEALTH REGULATION ............................................................... 93 4.1. The Occupational Safety and Health Act of 1970 ......................................... 94 4.2. F uctions of the Occupational Safety and Health Administration ................... 96 vii 4.2.1. Standard-Setting Rulemaking ......................................................... 96 4.2.2. Enforcement ................................................................................... 97 4.2.3. Compliance Assistance ................................................................ 103 4.3. State Occoupational Safety and Health Programs ....................................... 105 4.4. Institutional Environments of OSHA ........................................................... 109 4.4.1. Encactrnent of the OSH Act (1968-1970) ..................................... 109 4.4.2. Labor-HEW Appropriations Bills (1972-1980) ............................ 116 4.4.3. The Risk Notification Bill (1986-1988) ........................................ 123 4.4.4. Reform, Overhaul, and OSHA (1992-1996) ................................. 127 4.5. Institutional Environments of OSHA in Perspectives .................................. 132 4.5.1. The Majoritarian Perspective ........................................................ 133 4.5.2. The Distributive Politics Perspective ............................................ 136 4.5.3. The Party Government Perspective ............................................... 138 4.6. Discussion .................................................................................................... 141 CHAPTER 5 FEDERAL OCCUPATIONAL SAFETY AND HEALTH REGULATION ENFORCEMENT ......................................................... 144 5.1. Federal OSHA Enforcement Activities ........................................................ 145 5.2. Modeling Federal OSHA Enforcement Activities ....................................... 156 5.2.1. Dependent Variable ....................................................................... 158 5.2.2. Model Specification for Bureaucratic Responsiveness ................. 158 5.2.3. Model Specification for Bureaucratic Autonomy ......................... 168 5.3. Empirical Results ......................................................................................... 173 5.3.1. Majoritarian Politics ...................................................................... 173 5.3.2. Distributive Politics ....................................................................... 178 5.3.3. Party Government Politics ............................................................ 183 5.3.4. Mediating Effects of the Agency Preference Distribution ............ 187 5.4. Discussion ................................................................................................... 192 CHAPTER 6 STATE OCCUPATIONAL SAFETY AND HEALTH REGULATION ENFORCEMENT .................................................................................... 196 6.1. State Occupational Safety and Health Enforcement Activities .................... 198 6.2. Modeling State OSH Enforcement Activities .............................................. 204 6.3. Empirical Results ......................................................................................... 205 6.3.1. Majoritarian Politics ...................................................................... 205 6.3.2. Distributive Politics ....................................................................... 210 6.3.3. Party Government Politics ............................................................ 215 6.3.4. Mediating Effects of the Agency Preference Distribution ............ 220 6.4. Discussion ................................................................................................... 223 CHAPTER 7 CONCLUSION ........................................................................................ 227 BIBLIOGRAPHY ........................................................................................................... 236 viii LIST OF TABLES Table 1. OSHA Health Standards (1972-2001) ................................................................ 98 Table 2. OSHA Safety Standards (1972-2001) ................................................................. 99 Table 3. State Occupational Safety and Health Programs .............................................. 108 Table 4. Federal OSHA Regional Jurisdictions .............................................................. 148 Table 5. Federal OSH Inspections by Region and State (1992, 2000) ........................... 149 Table 6. Policy Equilibrium Intervals (The 91"‘~106th U.S. Congresses) ....................... 160 Table 7. ML Hetroscedastic Normal Regression Analysis of the Effects of the Majoritarian Politics on Federal OSH Enforcement ................................. 175 Table 8. ML Hetroscedastic Normal Regression Analysis of the Effects of the Distributive Politics on Federal OSH Enforcement .................................... 180 Table 9. ML Hetroscedastic Normal Regression Analysis of the Effects of the Party Government Politics on Federal OSH Enforcement .......................... 185 Table 10. Quantile Regression Analysis of the Mediating Effects of the Agency Preference Distribution on Federal OSH Enforcement ................................... 190 Table 11. State OSH Inspections (1992, 2000) ............................................................... 200 Table 12. ML Hetroscedastic Normal Regression Analysis of the Effects of the Majoritarian Politics on State OSH Enforcement ..................................... 207 Table 13. ML Hetroscedastic Normal Regression Analysis of the Effects of the Distributive Politics on State OSH Enforcement ...................................... 212 Table 14. ML Hetroscedastic Normal Regression Analysis of the Effects of the Party Government Politics on State OSH Enforcement ............................ 217 Table 15. Quantile Regression Analysis of the Mediating Effects of the Agency Preference Distribution on State OSH Enforcement ....................................... 222 ix LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1. Policy Disequilibrium and Policy Equilibirum .................................................. 54 Figure 2. Policy Equilibirum Interval and Agency Policy Choices .................................. 58 Figure 3. Heteroscedastic Distribution of Bureaucratic Preferences ................................ 65 Figure 4. Change of Policy Equilibirum Interval and Agency Policy Choices ................ 67 Figure 5. Monte Carlo Simulation .................................................................................... 71 Figure 6. Issue Characteristics and Types of Regulatory Politics ..................................... 85 Figure 7. Mapping Agencies onto Policy Continuum ....................................................... 91 Figure 8. Citations per Inspection by Violation Types (Federal, 1982-2000) ................ 152 Figure 9. Penalties per Inspection by Violation Types (Federal, 1982-2000) ................ 153 Figure 10. Issue Salience: New York Times Coverage of Occupational Safety and Health Issues (1969-2000) ......................................................................................... 163 Figure 11. Policy Equilibrium Intervals (The 91‘°’t~106th U.S. Congresses) .................... 170 Figure 12. Citations per Inspection by Violation Types (State, 1982-2000) .................. 200 Figure 13. Penalties per Inspection by Violation Types (State, 1982-2000) .................. 203 CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION Regulatory politics and policies have drawn an enormous amount of attention from political scientists and policy researchers. The attention to regulation has grown along with the expansion of govemment’s role in our everyday life. The US. government now has something to say not only about protecting consumers’ interests from large firms, providing welfare benefits, preserving the environment, and maintaining healthy and safe workplaces but also about allowing women to terminate unwanted pregnancy, prohibiting youths from accessing intemet pornography, and granting hopeless patients the right to die with dignity. New research projects have emerged as these new areas have been defined as policy “problems” that call for government intervention. Despite the ubiquity and complexity of regulatory policies, most research has attempted to provide an answer to one simple but most important question: “Why do the governmental agencies intervene in the private sector of society in the way they do?” This dissertation provides one part of the explanation: institutional preferences and rules affect bureaucratic choices on regulatory policy alternatives in the area of workplace safety and health. I develop a theoretical framework by which I examine how inter- institutional dynamics and rules may affect bureaucratic policy choices. I focus this research on two aspects of bureaucratic behavior such as bureaucratic responsiveness and bureaucratic autonomy. As a prelude to discussing why this is an important matter, a brief discussion about important themes in prior explanations of such regulatory politics is in order. First, the state of regulation can be thought to be determined by the nature of its origins. J. Q. Wilson (1980: 364-3 72) explains variations in regulatory policies in terms of patterns, actors, and consequences based on the distribution of perceived costs and benefits associated with the proposed policy. Costs and benefits may be perceived as being widely distributed or narrowly concentrated. When both costs and benefits are expected to be widely distributed, “majoritarian politics” takes place. Since no definable part of society such as an industry and a locality can get either disproportionate benefits or avoid a disproportionate share of costs, any strong support or opposition from particular segments of society is unlikely to occur. Thus, regulatory measures that seem to offer a net gain to the majority will be adopted. When both costs and benefits are considered to be narrowly concentrated on particular segments of society, “interest-group politics” prevails. Here a certain segment of society can benefit from the regulation at the expense of another segment of society. Each side, the beneficiary group or the regulated group, has a strong incentive to organize and exercise political influence to promote or avoid the measure, while the voice of general public remains weak. When the benefits of a prospective policy are concentrated but the costs are widely distributed, “client politics” is expected to result. While the beneficiary group is likely to organize in support, the large numbers of people who bear the diffused burdens at a low per-capita rate have little incentive to organize in opposition. Although watchdog public interest groups may emerge, client politics produces regulatory measures that almost exclusively serve economic groups’ interests. Finally, when the benefits are widely distributed at the expense of costs concentrated on a small segment of society, “entrepreneurial politics” is likely to occur. While the regulated group has a strong incentive to take actions, the beneficiaries who may get diffused benefits at a low per-capita rate will remain inactive. In order for this sort of regulatory legislation to be enacted, policy entrepreneurs, a group of people who willingly devote their time and resources, will have to mobilize the latent public opinion to promote their policy goal. In a second body of literature, the regulatory policy process has been explained by the distribution of influence among social interest groups. On one hand, the capture theory or the producer-dominance model asserts that regulatory agencies are likely to serve producers’ interests at the expense of consumers by restricting competition (Bernstein 1955; Huntington 1952; Stigler 1971; McCaffrey 1982). According to Stigler (1971), all firms seek to maximize profits, and profits can be increased if competition is reduced. Government regulations that restrict entry by requiring a firm or a member of an occupation to be licensed can be used for the firms’ benefits for two reasons. First, since a small number of firms in any given industry expect to gain at a high per-capita rate from regulation, the firms find it easier to organize to bear the costs of wielding I political influence. Second, self-interested government officials seek to maximize their votes or their wealth. The firms can supply these resources such as campaign contributions and lucrative jobs. On the other hand, the general group dominance theory argues that either producer or consumer or other economic interests may become influential. According to Peltzrnan (1976), government officials are vote-maxirnizers who arbitrate among competing interests that seek to use government to redistribute resources. Politicians will favor one or another interest as economic circumstances give greater urgency to the needs of one or the other. Furthermore, politicians have to make compromises among these competing interests to form large and heterogeneous coalition so that neither adversary party gets all it wants. Under what conditions, does one group emerge as influential at one point in time while the other group becomes stronger at another point in time? There are three main factors that may affect whether group interests can organize effectively (Rothenberg 1994: 26-32; Olson 1965; Dunleavy 1991). First, if the potential members who share common interests are concentrated (or small in number) and the pool of the usable resources is large, there is a greater chance that an interest group can be formed and maintained. The small size of the membership and ample resources will minimize the potential problem of one’s free-riding on others’ contributions so that the organization can pursue the collective good-«the benefits from regulation. Second, the organizational goal will reflect the voices from those who are interested in collective goods and those who make large contributions. Any substantive gap between the organizational goal and individual value will hurt the stability of the organization’s membership. Third, the organizational capacities to provide politicians with valuable information and resources are another crucial factor that determines the organization’s fate. Organizations can prove their political value if they provide information about electoral preferences, technological expertise, and other institutional actors’ preferences and behavior. Resources that organizations can contribute include campaign money for elected officials and the promise of jobs after leaving government. In a third body of literature, the effect of institutional preferences and rules on bureaucratic choices can be thought to explain regulatory policy implementation. The main argument of this perspective is that regulatory policy or public policy in general cannot be understood without systematic investigation of the nature and dynamics of political institutions. More specifically, the argument is that institutional preferences and rules determine the pattern of regulatory behavior. This approach collapses into three subcategories: congress-centered, executive-centered, and multi-institutional perspectives. The congress-centered explanation emphasizes the effect of congressional rules, structure, and electoral incentives on regulatory agency behavior. Numerous theoretical models focus on statutory arrangements imposed by legislators on the agency. The main argument is that statutes can create an institutional environment wherein the range of permissible bureaucratic actions is defined and monitored through various procedural requirements (F iorina 1982; McCubbins and Schwartz 1984; McCubbins, N011, and Weingast 1987). The role of congressional committees and subcommittees has also received attention (McCubbins 1985; Shepsle and Weingast 1987; Weingast and Moran 1983; Weingast 1984; Aberbach 1990; Knott and Hammond 2000). Especially when committees are granted monopoly power in their jurisdiction and committees’ policy views are distinctively different from the rest of the chamber, the congressional committees can play a crucial role in shaping regulatory behavior. The executive-centered explanation emphasizes the importance of the presidential power to control agency leadership (Moe 1982, 1985, 1990). The presidential resources for influence include formal powers such as appointment of agency heads, the OMB’s review of agency budget and activities, and the president’s unilateral agenda-setting power (Moe and Howell 1999; Cameron 2000; Howell 2003; Lewis 2003). The role of the president in domestic policy areas has been considered to have grown as the president’s organizational apparatus has expanded. The Executive Office of the President has sufficient capacities to control policy administration by the executive departments. In addition to this expansion of formal resources, the president can capitalize on people’s mandate to exert informal influence on legislators (Kemell 1997). His standing in the public can be used by the president as political capital to persuade members of Congress to achieve presidential policy goals. In the era of partisan politics, the president can play a role of policy magnet that can unite his party across branches and between levels of the government. The multi-institutional perspective advocates a broader model that includes all key institutional actors such as the president, congressional actors, and the courts to explain agency behavior (Moe 1985; Wood 1988; Wood and Waterman 1994; Scholz and Wei 1986; Scholz, Twombly, and Headrick 1991). This perspective assumes that the agency is able to respond simultaneously to discrete and even conflicting inputs from those individual institutions. Recent development of theoretical models advances propositions that clarify causal mechanisms of multi-institutional influence on agency actions (Hammond and Miller 1987; Hammond and Knott 1996, 1999; Calvert, McCubbins, and Weingast 1989; Epstein and O’Halloran 1999; Huber and Shipan 2002). Macro rules that bind institutional actors can affect a regulatory agency’s behavior through their immediate impacts on the likelihood of major policy change, the level of discretion, and the range of politically-feasible bureaucratic policy choices. Lastly, a substantial part of the variation in regulatory performance is attributable to bureaucratic discretion and autonomy. Bureaucratic discretion and autonomy originates from various factors. First, the limitations of formal and institutional control mechanisms such as vague legislation, the opportunity costs of monitoring, and the shortage of time and resources suffered by political supervisors leave detailed decisions to bureaucrats (Dodd and Schott 1986). Second, the technological complexity of policy problems and bureaucratic expertise reinforce the politicians’ temptations to delegate policy authority to agency (Meier 1993). Third, the organizational adaptation of regulatory agencies to fit idiosyncratic local environments leads to the undermining of nationally-deterrnined policy directives (Lipsky 1980; Bardach 1977; Bardach and Kagan 1982; Keiser and Soss 1998). Fourth, an organization’s culture, including the agency’s past experiences and individual officials’ professional values, can result in different regulatory outcomes (Downs 1967; Niskanen 1971, 1975; Wilson 1980, 1989; Kelman 1981; Eisner and Meier 1990; Brehm and Gates 1997; Gonnley 1997; Carpenter 2001). In other words, the bureaucracy-centered explanation asserts that regulatory behavior reflects various intra-bureaucracy factors due in part to incomplete supervision by political institutions and in part to bureaucratic goals that may be different from those of the political principals, augmented by the agency’s capacities to administer regulatory programs in volatile environments. 1.1. Research Questions Since regulatory politics and policies are complex social phenomena, one cannot easily examine all possible combinations of causes and consequences. One must choose a theoretical lens through which one can focus his or her research on some particular aspects of the complex totality. This dissertation seeks to provide an explanation of the linkage between institutions and a regulatory agency’s behavioral patterns in occupational safety and health regulation. Why are institutional preferences and rules the focal point in this research? The first reason for focusing on institutional features is that despite the importance of the relationship between representative institutions and bureaucratic organizations in a modern democratic society, we still have limited knowledge of it. The question of whether bureaucratic organizations comply with goals set by political institutions has been at the center of academic discourse ever since Woodrow Wilson (1887) claimed that the enterprise of administration should be separated from the normal process of politics. Some scholars, without questioning what happens in the political environment, delved into questions of efficient organization of administrative work involving division and coordination (Gulick 1937), the distribution of authority among different ranks inside bureaucratic organizations (Barnard 193 7), and the mode of administrative decision-making (Simon 1947; March and Simon 195 8). On the other hand, others saw government bureaucracies as saturated by so much politics that the politics- administration dichotomy---the idea of purely administrative organizations-«was considered impossible (Waldo 1948; Long 1949; Downs 1967). It was further asserted that administration was well incorporated into the normal process of democracy so that representative political institutions determined what bureaucrats would do on behalf of the general public (Redford 1969). Each of these views on the relationship between politics and administration left its theoretical residue in contemporary debates on political control and bureaucratic autonomy. The ‘political control’ perspective argues that public bureaucracies are directed by elected leaders and that bureaucratic actions for the most part reflect politicians’ wishes rather than the bureaucrats’ own predispositions (Weingast and Moran 1983; McCubbins and Schwartz 1984; Moe 1982; Scholz and Wei 1986; Wood 1988; Wood and Waterman 1994). According to this view, bureaucrats provide the public with policy services in ways that serve interests of the elected political leaders, such as the president and congressional actors, who can use various control and oversight tools. On the other hand, the ‘bureaucratic autonomy’ perspective asserts that various intra-agency factors such as discretion, policy expertise, professional norms, and the bureaucrats’ own policy preferences affect administrative decisions and that the impact of these bureaucratic factors on policy outcomes is not outweighed by that of political factors (Lipsky 1980; Rourke 1984; Wilson 1989; Meier 1993; Carpenter 2001). Current discourse on the relationship between representative institutions and bureaucratic organization remains inconclusive. The ‘political control’ perspective is unable to clearly account for why a considerable part of the variation in regulatory behavior has been explained by bureaucratic factors but not by institutional preferences. The ‘bureaucratic autonomy’ perspective falters in the face of evidence that agencies’ decisions on the distribution of regulatory resources and the level of regulatory stringency vary systematically with the preferences of elected leaders in political institutions. In sum, we are left with insufficient understanding of the concurrence of bureaucratic responsiveness to institutional preferences and autonomous bureaucratic actions. In this context, the first set of research questions of this dissertation is as follows: How can we better understand bureaucratic autonomy amid a variety of @olitical) institutional constraints in a democratic society? Does the presence of bureaucratic autonomy negate the possibility of bureaucratic responsiveness? Can we conceptualize these two seemingly incompatible processes (responsiveness and autonomy) in an integrated fiamework? The second reason for focusing on institutional effects on regulatory policies is that although the literature has explored various effects of institutional preferences and rules on regulatory policies, we are still left with insufficient and inconclusive empirical knowledge about how these political institutional actors collectively affect agency officials’ actions. The advancement of theoretical models has led our attention to the nature and the mode of interactions among political institutions in exerting influence on the agency. For instance, the US. Constitution and its separation of powers make important policy change difficult in the absence of a joint majority of the chambers and the president (Hammond and Miller 1987). Since a political principal can block unilateral actions by other principals and since an important policy decision needs a multilateral agreement, politically-feasible agency actions are constrained by joint actions of multiple principals such as congressional actors and the president (Hammond and Knott 1996, 1999; Calvert, McCubbins, and Weingast 1989; Epstein and O’Halloran 1999; Huber and Shipan 2002). Past empirical research, however, has underestimated the importance of multilateral actions of political institutions to regulatory agency actions. On one hand, the importance of joint actions of political principals has been empirically examined to explain various aspects of legislative decisions such as the statutory design of 10 bureaucratic discretion (Epstein and O’Halloran 1999, chapter 6; Huber and Shipan 2002, chapters 6 and 7), legislative productivity (Mayhew 1991; Krehbiel 1998), and budgetary decisions (Brady and Volden 1998). However, none of them addresses the effect of inter-principal interactions on how agency officials take actions to implement policy. On the other hand, several bodies of empirical work that examined institutional effects on agency actions left out inter-institutional relations. For instance, some studies focus on the dyadic relationship between one principal and one agency while ignoring the influence of other principals (Moe 1982, 1987; Weingast and Moran 1983). A host of other empirical studies employ additive multi-institutional models that assume that political control consists of individual institutions’ independent influences, thereby ignoring how these political principals interact with each other to influence agency actions (Scholz and Wei 1986; Scholz, Twombly, and Headrick 1991; Wood 1988, 1992) Therefore, the second set of research questions is: How do political institutions interact with each other to exert influence on bureaucratic choices on regulatory policy alternatives? Who should be considered pivotal among the institutional actors? How can we minimize the gap between formal models and empirical research in the institutional study of the behavior of the regulatory agency? 1.2. Research Plan In the next chapter I provide a critical review of existing theories on the questions of political control and bureaucratic autonomy and discuss limitations of past research such 11 as conceptual ambiguity, the omission of inter-institutional relations, and methodological pitfalls. In chapter 3 I develop the theoretical framework. I present a multi-institutional model of bureaucratic policy choices to derive propositions about how the nature and mode of inter-principal interactions affect agency officials’ policy choices and how the agency’s diverse preference distribution or policy bias may mediate these institutional effects on agency ofiicials’ policy choices. Then I discuss which set of institutional actors should be considered pivotal by focusing on three alternative views of veto players: the majoritarian, the distributive politics, and the party government perspectives. I propose that the relative importance of these alternative sets of veto players depends on the characteristics of the policy issues at hand, such as salience and partisan polarization. In chapter 4 I describe the formal structure of the Occupational Safety and Health Act of 1970 and organizational and functional features of the US. Occupational Safety and Health Administration. I also portray how the key institutional actors are involved and intertwined to pursue their own policy goals through OSHA’s regulatory activities. Chapters 5 and 6 include statistical analyses of the federal OSHA and state occupational safety and health agencies’ inspection activities to test the hypotheses. Throughout these two chapters, the process through which the national-level institutional preferences are transmitted to federal and state agencies is empirically examined. Besides the main hypotheses, whether and why federal and state agencies respond to different sets of the national institutions are discussed. In Chapter 7 I discuss whether my research questions have been successfully answered and what the implications of this research for the future research are. 12 CHAPTER 2 POLITICAL CONTROLS AND BUREAUCRATIC AUTONOMY Elected policymakers typically delegate policy implementation to bureaucratic agencies in the modern administrative state. Bureaucratic agencies have been authorized to apply statutory goals in individual cases, make adjudicatory decisions for disputed policy cases, and establish administrative rules and policy standards. This delegation of authority to unelected agency officials can take place under general conditions that elected policymakers prefer to delegate legislative authority to administrative entities (F iorina 1982; McCubbins 1985). First, the elected officials may create administrative agencies to cope with technical complexity of policy problems. By creating bureaucracies, specialized knowledge can be used to resolve the technical uncertainties involving the impact of alternative policy actions. Second, elected policymakers use delegation to minimize the political opportunity costs of directly dealing with policy problems themselves. Third, politicians can reduce the political costs of making specific decisions by shifting the responsibility to bureaucrats. However, the delegation of policy authority to bureaucratic actors may result in generic problems of principal-agent relationships. Due to the instability of political coalitions on one hand and bureaucratic rigidity on the other hand, policy disagreements among the political principals and bureaucratic agent can come into existence. In other words, a stable contractual relationship between a political principal and a bureaucratic agent is nearly impossible since the existing winning political coalition can be replaced by other ones through electoral processes whereas bureaucratic organizations tend to develop and institutionalize their own system for executing statutory mandates (Horn 13 1995). As a result, policy goals of bureaucracies may differ from those of political principals. Then, the dilemma for politicians is that they must sacrifice some control to capture the benefits of delegation. Even though the elected leaders can resolve technical problems and decrease their opportunity costs by granting authority to bureaucratic agencies, they still cannot avoid agency problems such as bureaucratic noncompliance and information concealment, which can lead to agency actions that are not consistent with what the politicians expected to obtain. Thus, politicians cannot avoid the trade-off between “uncertainty about policy consequences” and “uncertainty about agency behavior” (Bawn 1995: 63). 2.]. Political Controls Although delegation of policy authority to agencies is in accordance with politicians’ interests, the politicians still want to maintain a degree of bureaucratic compliance. Researchers who believe in the value of democratic control of the administrative apparatus argue that political institutions and elected leaders should and can direct an agency’s administrative decisions and performance (Redford 1969; Behn 2001). In a democracy, representative institutions should determine on the general public’s behalf what bureaucracy should pursue through its daily operations. Bureaucrats who can obtain legitimacy for their use of authority only through delegation are expected to carry out policy in accordance with the elected leaders’ wishes. The political control thesis argues that political institutions send signals of their preferences through various monitoring and incentive mechanisms to control bureaucratic behavior, and bureaucrats respond to those political demands. The elected leaders are principals and bureaucrats l4 are agents or servants; the political principals mandate policy goals, structure, and resource levels, and control agency behavior. Researchers have examined the political control or bureaucratic responsiveness processes in different ways. The dyadic approach focuses on the relations between one institution, either Congress or the president, and an agency; in contrast, the multi-institutional approach takes all those institutions into account to explain agency behavior. 2.1.1. Legislative Controls Legislators oversee the bureaucracy in an effort to promote policy objectives and claim credits for promoting goals valued by their own constituencies (Fenno 1978; Mayhew 1974; Fiorina 1989; Keefe and Ogul 1997). According to F enno (1978), congressional behavior is motivated by getting reelected, achieving influence, and making good public policy. Mayhew (1974) and Fiorina (1989) argue that legislators, as “professional” politicians, make self-interested policy choices to maximize their electoral credit and the chances of reelection. Thus, legislators who almost always seek reelection and longer careers in Congress want to oversee bureaucratic agencies when they see “a connection between their own political lives and bureaucratic activity” (Keefe and Ogul 1997: 382). Researchers have focused on two types of legislative controls (McCubbins and Schwartz 1984; McCubbins, N011, and Weingast 1987). The first type is Congress’s direct supervision through its investigative and oversight mechanisms. Congress can use oversight power combined with a system of incentives and sanctions such as a promise of continuous authorization and a threat of budget cuts. COngress possesses the power to hold oversight hearings to monitor an agency’s performance and investigate its 15 as" 5” v 0,~ ub- 01‘ .35 w\... ‘h;* ale. ‘9" e“.\ l h." I'Nu'. 'r‘p Hp .._c wrongdoings. Congress also has the power to discontinue authorization of an agency as a punishment of its undesired behavior. The effectiveness of this type of “police patrol” mechanism rests on the premise that the mere existence of severe punishment of an agency’s wrongdoing can change agency officials’ incentive systems, thereby increasing the likelihood of bureaucratic compliance (Fiorina 1982). Even under conditions of inactive oversight activity and the low probability of detecting undesirable agency behavior, the agency will take actions in accordance with politicians’ wishes in fear of the formal powers of authorization, appropriation, and appointment. The other type of legislative controls is procedural controls. Congress can induce agency actions within certain permissible bounds by using various administrative procedures such as record keeping, information disclosure, notice-and-comments, and citizen participation. These various procedural constraints through administrative due process as codified by the Administrative Procedure Act of 1946 were originally installed to impose uniform standards on the exercise of bureaucratic discretion. Administrative due process can be used to serve legislators’ informational and electoral interests (McCubbins, Noll, and Weingast 1987). Legislators can use administrative procedures to minimize informational disadvantages in dealing with agencies. Notice- and—comment rulemaking and freedom-of-information requirements can facilitate the role of affected interests in alerting politicians to agency misdemeanors. This system of “fire alarms” provides an efficient way to allocate resources to the most salient policy areas. Secondly, legislators can “stack the deck” in favor of legislative interests by creating decision-making criteria and opportunities for participation through which agency officials are held responsible to the winning legislative coalition’s constituents. l6 While both types of legislative controls-«direct monitoring and procedural requirements-«can be employed by legislators, scholars have examined their relative advantages. Some scholars assert that procedural controls are more efficient and effective than direct supervision by helping reduce politicians’ opportunity costs of monitoring and by shaping institutional environments that induce agency officials to behave in predictable ways (McCubbins and Schwartz 1984; McCubbins, N011, and Weingast 1987). But others contend that the choice between oversight and procedural tools depends on the legislators’ level of knowledge about policy. Those who are knowledgeable about a certain agency and policy (i.e., committee members) may prefer oversight since they can concentrate their resources on potential problems, while those who lack such expertise will prefer procedural controls (Bawn 1997). The role of congressional committees in shaping regulatory behavior has received special attention (McCubbins 1985; Shepsle and Weingast 1987; Weingast and Moran 1983; Miller and Moe 1983; Aberbach 1990). A body of literature has examined the possibility of preference congruency between a committee (or subcommittee) and an agency (Huntington 1952; Weingast 1984; Knott and Hammond 2000). The importance of a committee’s role rests on the premise that Congress consists of loosely-coupled and functionally-specialized committees (or subcommittees); these congressional subunits exert legislative monopoly power over issues in their jurisdictions. These quasi- independent committees can protect their jurisdictions over administrative agencies by forming strong policy coalitions or “iron triangles” with interest groups and the agencies. The policy triangle produces policy outcomes based on mutual benefits of the legislators, constituency groups, and the agency. Congress as a whole distributes policy benefits 17 through these policy coalitions in various areas to serve local and industrial interests. Legislative activities for distributive programs or “pork-barrel” policy certainly contribute to legislators’ home districts’ wellbeing and help secure greater political supports (Fenno 1978; F iorina 1989). 2.1.2. Presidential Controls The unbalanced attention of the literature on legislative delegation and control has been criticized for ignoring the presidential role in directing agency behavior (Moe 1982, 1985, 1987). The main argument of the presidential control perspective is that congressional dominance is not true since presidents are systematically ignored by the congressional dominance models even though they often play a major role in shaping agency behavior. Moe (1985: 1101) expresses his beliefs about the ineffectiveness of congressional control, due mainly to the Congress’s complex web of multiple decision-making nodes: Yet these [congressional] powers are wielded by various committees, subcommittees, and chairs in both Houses. Thus, some congressional actors may be highly interested in influencing the NLRB, whereas others choose to focus their resources elsewhere; some of those interested in influence may be quite conservative, others quite liberal; and particularly as the cast of characters changes and the commitment of actors in the various institutional bodies ebbs and flows, serious control efforts may shift from one committee to the next and back again over time. Within this complicated context of competing principals, the NLRB is faced with conflicting demands and pressures, but also with Opportunities to avoid compliance by shifting responsibility and playing congressional actors of against one another. (emphasis added) Recent theoretical models highlight the president’s superior ability to take unilateral actions, which may offer opportunities for him to exert the greatest influence when interacting with other institutional actors such as Congress and the courts 18 (Cameron 2000; Howell 2003; Lewis 2003). For instance, Howell (2003: 14-15) describes the president’s unilateral powers as follows: The most important is that the president moves policy first and thereby places upon Congress and the courts the burden of revising a new political landscape. . . .If they choose not to retaliate, either by passing a law or ruling against the president, then president’s order stands. Only by taking (or credibly threatening to take) positive action can either adjoining institution limit the president’s unilateral powers. ....The second important feature of unilateral power is that the president acts alone. There is no need to rally majorities, compromise with adversaries, or wait for some interest group to bring a case to court. (emphasis added) The US. presidency also has improved its policymaking capacities. The role of the president in policymaking has grown in the last decades as its functions have been expanded and institutionalized. Since the creation of the Executive Office of the President (EOP) in 1939, the presidential staff bureaucracy has grown in size, specialization, and responsibilities. The development of the institutionalized presidency has increased the presidential power (Edwards and Wayne 1999). Thus, many agree that the presidency as an institution has become an independent policymaking powerhouse. Some scholars even coined the term “Executive Hegemony” to emphasize the president’s enhanced power in both administrative and legislative arenas (Spitzer 1993). Article II of the US. Constitution provides the president with a broad range of authority over the administration of government, the task of executing the law, and oversight of the executive departments. As the chief executive, the president can employ two strategies to control agencies: personnel management to staff agencies with loyal executives, and centralized fiscal management and supervision via the BOP (West 1995: 77-83). The most powerful presidential appointments fall under the “executive schedule” wherein the president can fill numerous positions such as department 19 '1‘)“ 55.. ' 24“}. ‘h\ r. s .4.... '...\ . TI" \ n-..’ s IA'y‘ ts». leadership, agency and bureau heads, and commissions with loyal executives. Over these political appointees, the president is granted unilateral removal power. In addition, the Civil Service Reform Act of 1978 enhanced presidential power over the US. civil service system by allowing the president to fill up to 10 percent of the jobs in the Senior Executive Service by political appointment. Next, the president’s fiscal powers can be used for centralized management. The president via the BOP, especially the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), can establish presidential policy priorities among agency programs and pursue the administration’s objectives by auditing and evaluating agency programs during executive budget preparation. Moreover, the president has discretionary controls over the use of appropriated money such as the authority to transfer budgeted funds within and among agencies and the authority of impoundment including deferral and rescission of budgeted funds. Although the president has these weapons at his disposal, the important question is whether the president or his staff organizations are seriously committed to bringing the president’s policy preferences to bear. There is some evidence of increased interest of the president and the BOP in monitoring agency policy and programs. For instance, the president’s administrative involvement, through policy review programs, has been on the rise (West 1995: 85-90). Richard Nixon’s executive order began the “Quality of Life Review” program, which required all proposed environmental regulations of the EPA to be submitted for comment to other agencies. Gerald Ford’s Executive Order 11821 (as amended by ED. 11949) expanded his predecessor’s program and required that all major regulations be assessed by an Inflation Impact Statement (118) which was subject to review by the Council on Wage and Price Stability (COWPS) in the BOP. Jimmy Carter 20 further expanded the review program by requiring all major rules to be justified by cost- benefit analyses (Regulatory Analyses). Ronald Reagan’s Executive Order 12291 required cost-benefit analysis and the Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs (OIRA) review for all regulatory proposals. This OIRA review program was kept through the Bush (senior) and Clinton administrations. In addition to these formal powers, the president can use informal channels of influence on the national policymaking process. For instance, Moe (1982: 201) remarks that “Many individuals within the commissions may give great weight to the president’s policy positions not because he wields rewards and sanctions, but simply because he holds the office of president and, in their minds, has a right to expect compliance.” This sense of compliance with presidential wills has also been observed in the legislative arena. The president often uses his resources to persuade legislators to support his own policy goals. The president’s standing in the public can be transformed into the president’s political capital to influence individual legislators’ voting behavior (Kemell 1997). The president as a party leader can also mobilize broad partisan support for his own policy agenda to achieve legislative successes in domestic policy areas (Bond and Fleisher 1990). 2.1.3. Multi-Institutional Controls The dyadic approach---legislative and presidential control---has been criticized on the grounds that it focuses on one particular institution while ignoring other institutions and that this imbalanced attention may yield only biased inference about institutional 21 determinants of regulatory behavior. For instance, Moe (1985: 1095) expresses this dissatisfaction as follows: It is plain from decades of research on bureaucratic politics that public agencies are anchored in networks of relationships with executives, legislative committee, and constituency groups. . . ..Although this is no secret, popular models of regulation as well as quantitative empirical work have tended to focus only on very small parts of the whole---in the former case for reasons for clarity and mathematical tractability, and in the latter because of data collection and measurement problems (and because they are often guided by these same models). . . .It is important to remember that [these research strategies] threaten to yield biased inferences about the causes of regulatory behavior. They clearly omit factors whose causal effects may overwhelm or distort the “special” relationships on which they singularly focus. In contrast, theoretical and empirical multi-institutional models have also been advanced. The key argument is that political institutions should be considered together to better understand institutional influence on bureaucratic behavior. Theoretical multi- institutional models focus on how political institutions interact with each other to influence agency actions (Hammond and Miller 1987; Calvert, McCubbins, and Weingast 1989; Hammond and Knott 1996, 1999; Epstein and O’Halloran 1999; Huber and Shipan 2002). These multi-institutional models build on the macro rules that bind separate institutions together, such as bicameralism and the presidential veto. Hammond and Miller (1987) show why and how the US. Constitution and its separation of powers induce policy stability. Under the system of bicameralism and the executive veto, policy change is difficult without the agreement of a joint majority of the chambers and the president. This is because the set of undominated policies---the core---will not be decreasing in size with the added veto players and their dissimilar policy preferences. This finding about the nature of multi-institutional policymaking opens the door to a new area of research: how the interactions among these institutions affect 22 bureaucracy. Since major policies are made by collective efforts of the institutional actors, bureaucratic choices should be bounded by the joint actions of the multiple institutions. Calvert, McCubbins, and Weingast (1989: 589) make this point clear: [T]he actual [bureaucratic] choice of policy is traceable not to bureaucratic preferences but to the preferences of legislative and executive politicians. ...Even though the agency may be the sole active decisionmaker, policy outcomes are traceable to the preferences of all institutions and to the constitutional process in which they act. Hammond and Knott (1996: 163) also provide an explicit view: In our view, control of the bureaucracy is function of the interactions of the president and Congress. . . .Whatever the extent of constraints on an agency, one cannot single out any one institution as primarily responsible for these constraints. Instead, control of the bureaucracy must be seen as a systematic matter: the president, House, and Senate collectively control the bureaucracy. (emphasis in original) This multi-institutional framework has been employed by a host of empirical studies on regulatory policy, especially economic, occupational safety and health, and environment protection regulation (Moe 1985; Scholz and Wei 1986; Scholz et a1. 1991; Wood 1988, 1992; Wood and Waterman 1994; Shipan 2004; Whitford 2005). These empirical studies develop an additive multi-institutional model, wherein political influence is assumed to consist of individual and discrete institutional effects. Wood and Waterman (1994) make a clear remark on this progress: “the simple dyadic images depicted by past research should now give way to an image of bureaucracies as continually adapting to multiple, concurrent, and diverse stimuli” (101). Their study examined various executive sources of political influence, including a new presidential administration, presidential appointment of a new agency head, executive order for reorganization and the tone of presidential statement. For the part of Congress, budget 23 x.‘ n ..Ir -, appropriation, congressional oversight hearings, and the enactment of new legislation were considered. This multi-institutional research on regulatory agencies provides empirical evidence for one of the main arguments advanced by the multiple-principal fi'arnework: all key institutional actors should be considered together to explain bureaucratic decisions and behavior. As assumed by positive theories, various centralized formal controls that can be used by the president and congressional actors over an agency have been examined by the multi-institutional research. By adding political institutions to the explanatory equation, the multi-institutional approach at least overcomes the omitted variable problems that plagued the dyadic approach. In addition to its inclusion of multiple institutions, the multi-institutional research program has discovered causal mechanisms that link institutional preferences and agency behavior. First, empirical studies systematized the interactions between political institutions and government bureaucracies as “stimulus (signal)-and-response” relations (Wood 1988, 1992; Scholz and Wei 1986, Scholz et a1. 1991; Wood and Waterman 1994). Wood and Waterman (1994) depict bureaucracy as an adaptive entity responding concurrently to stimuli of different types. They identify three different stimulus types: discrete, event, and tonal. “Discrete” events are stimuli that occur just once but are expected to have effects that last for some time. The appointment of a new agency head, a large one-year budget cut, the enactment of new enabling act, or a landmark judicial ruling can be considered this type of stimulus. “Event” processes are sequences of discrete event stimuli that pass through time. This type of stimuli includes a set of tirne- ordered budgets, all congressional hearings, and all relevant rulings by the courts. 24 I a mo [ L. z. arg‘ ..liH MC". 5... I. 4‘ H_‘_ I 'n-o Ira, . r1. .3. i. I . v... “Tonal” stimuli are those that develop gradually over time rather than being manifested through each discrete event, such as gradual change in the public mood and the news media attention. Bureaucracy in turn responds to these multiple stimuli. External stimuli are distributed across time and so are bureaucratic responses. Bureaucratic response to stimulus can take place instantly (zero-order), occur some time later (lagged), or be distributed across time. The difference in bureaucratic response can be accounted for by three factors: technology, rationality, and politics. Technical factors include intra- organizational dependence and bureaucratic inertia that tend to increase response time. Bounded rationality of political and bureaucratic actors may generate ambiguous, weak, and conflicting signals and responses. Lastly, divergent interests among politicians and bureaucrats may lead to slow and incremental bureaucratic responses. Another important advancement of the multi-institutional research program is that it provides systematic knowledge about various channels through which the top- level politicians’ preferences reach front-line officials at the bottom ranks of government hierarchy. First, centralized hierarchical control is a part of the causal mechanism by which the national politicians’ policy preferences influence lower-level agency officials (Moe 1985). According to this view, it is unlikely that agency officials at lower ranks of the government bureaucracy take their cues directly from politicians, given the complex structural and incentive system of bureaucratic organizations. Those political cues can be delivered to the rank and file of the bureaucracy primarily through the mediation of top agency officials. Moe (1985) describes this ‘two-tiered, strictly hierarchic system’: “Political authorities attempt to control the behavior of their immediate subordinates (the 25 [NLR] Board), and the Board in turn attempts to control its own organizational subordinates, the staff” (1100). The hierarchical control channel, thus, rests on the effectiveness of supervision-compliance relations within bureaucratic organizations. Ideology or policy preferences embedded in the organizational decisions at the top of the bureaucratic hierarchy provide signals to lower-level bureaucrats regarding daily operations. The flow of national political influence through local channels to field bureaucrats has also been examined by researchers (Scholz and Wei 1986; Scholz, Twombly, and Headrick 1991). Scholz and Wei (1986) provide a very clear view of this: Once the national policy is set, a programmatic agency, however, is likely to respond to the more subtle concerns of congressmen for their particular districts by initiating more intense enforcement efforts in areas and industries where congressmen hope to maintain strong labor support and by developing more cooperative enforcement programs in areas and industries where business backing is important to congressmen (1252). The impact of local channels on street-level bureaucratic behavior rests on the assumptions that top agency officials want to maintain support from particular elected officials and that field officials are inclined to capitalize on elected officials’ willingness to provide local leadership. To the extent that required local resources are more problematic than central resources, the effect of local channels can even outweigh that of centralized channels via the formal hierarchy. Scholz, Twombly, and Headrick (1991) extend this bottom-up explanation fiirther by focusing on the influence of local partisan activities on OSHA enforcement as follows: [P]artisan activities of elected officials and their electoral coalitions in the local arena provide important systematic influences on bureaucratic behavior, particularly in circumstances in which conflict reduces the ability of central 26 institutions to exercise political control. We emphasize the role of nonlegislative or “home-style” activities of legislators and their support coalitions in electoral districts of local, state, and federal legislatures (830). As the authors argue, the dependence of a regulatory agency upon local political support and resources can divert implementation from the national policy goals set by central leaders, thereby generating variations across regions and localities. However, it may be also true that the national elected officials can exert influence through these local channels on the street-level bureaucrats to pursue the national policy goals. The national politicians through their home-style activities can get involved in ‘daily battles’ of implementers in the field. That is, the prominent elected officials are not just distant and minor participants of bureaucratic operations. The national-level political signals may be strong enough to reach the bottom ranks of bureaucratic hierarchies. 2.2. Bureaucratic Autonomy The principal-agent framework has been used by most of the institution-based explanations of bureaucratic behavior to rediscover the importance of democratic hierarchies in shaping bureaucratic behavior. The thrust of this view is that democratic institutions can control what unelected officials in governmental agencies do to make bureaucratic outcomes consistent with what the general public may wish. However, the principal-agency relationships, especially the stable and ordered hierarchical relations among political institutions and bureaucratic agencies, have come under suspicion. This criticism emphasizes the irnperviousness of the “fourth branch of government” to political control. For instance, Rourke (1986: ix-x) succinctly stated this view as follows: [T]he actual role of bureaucrats may deviate widely from their theoretical role as servants of policy. Bureaucrats may help to create as well as to carry out the 27 public will by generating new policy initiatives which the public accepts. In some areas of policy their expertise may even entitle them to act at their own discretion, limited only by the vaguest set of guidelines laid down by the White House or Congresses. So, as is often the case with the master-servant relationship, the activities of some bureaucratic servants may very much resemble those of a master. From this view, the external checks by political institutions and elected leaders over specific policy areas and agencies are considered at best superficial and perfunctory. Capitalizing on the ineffectiveness of political controls and bureaucratic insulation from political institutions, bureaucrats may use their discretion to pursue their own goals that may not be in accordance with those of the principals. According to Rourke (1984), bureaucratic ‘power’ rises from four factors: expertise, constituency, vitality, and leadership. Bureaucratic expertise confers power through superior knowledge of a problem or policy. Constituency goes to the core of political relationships through the ability of bureaucracy to mobilize political support or curb political opposition. Vitality refers to the professional commitment of bureaucratic personnel to job, program, and organization. Leadership will bring greater expertise to an organization, effectively mobilizing constituencies, and improving personnel commitment to make the organization more vital. Similarly, Carpenter (2001) emphasizes the importance of bureaucracy’s entrepreneurial efforts to define the functions for an organization, to mobilize external supports and resources, to maintain the highest-level of expert knowledge, and to defend the mission and goals of an agency. From this perspective, bureaucratic autonomy is a result of political struggle of innovative bureaucratic organizations in the jungle of politics. Carpenter makes a very strong point about when and how we can observe bureaucratic autonomy. According to him, bureaucratic autonomy occurs when 28 bureaucrats take sustained patterns of “actions consistent with their own wishes, actions to which politicians and organized interests defer even though they would prefer that other actions (or no action at all) be taken” (4). He then suggests that the general conditions under which bureaucratic autonomy emerges are: 0 Autonomous bureaucracies are politically diflerentiated from the actors who seek to control them. They have unique preferences, interests, and ideologies which diverge from those of politicians and organized interests. 0 Bureaucratic autonomy requires the development of unique organizational capacities---capacities to analyze, to create new programs, to solve problems, to plan, to administer programs with efficiency, and to ward off corruption. Autonomous agencies must have the ability to act upon their unique preferences with efficacy and to innovate. They must have bureaucratic entrepreneurs. o Bureaucratic autonomy requires political legitimacy, or strong organizational reputations embedded in an independent power base. Autonomy first requires demonstrated capacity, the belief by political authorities and citizens that agencies can provide benefits, plans, and solutions to national problems found nowhere else in the regime. These beliefs must also be grounded in multiple networks through which agency entrepreneurs can build program coalitions around the policies they favor. (14: emphasis in original) Some scholars argue that bureaucratic interests are not necessarily self-serving. Instead, bureaucracies may function as a “representative” institution where the competing interests of diverse social groups can be compromised and a stable set of solutions can be pursued without the direct mediation of the elected leaders and political institutions. This follows from the contention that “political” questions differ from “administrative” questions only in who decides them, not in differences in content (Meier 1993). These observations may accurately reflect what autonomous bureaucracies may look like. Nonetheless, while these could be a systematic description of the characteristics of autonomous bureaucratic organizations, they may not be causal factors. 29 So the question is: due to what factors will bureaucracies be able to pursue their own goals, develop their own policy capacities, obtain external resources and support, and even represent the interests of various social groups? 2.2.1. Agent Problems In the framework of the principal-agent model, bureaucratic autonomy has been attributed mainly to agent “problems.” The major problem is asymmetric information combined with conflict of interest among political principals and bureaucratic agents. Problems of asymmetric information include hidden preferences (adverse selection), hidden actions (moral hazard), and policy uncertainty (bureaucratic expertise) (Miller 1992; Moe 1984). A bureaucratic agent can misrepresent his or her true policy preferences to a principal. Given limited information about the agent’s quality and worldview, a principal may choose a wrong person for a bureaucratic position. The mistakenly chosen person could lack the capacity to carry out the task or perform the assigned job in the direction that the principal has not expected. Moral hazard can occur when the principle cannot obtain complete information about her subordinate’s behavior. The bureaucratic agent can conceal his performance simply by cheating or by free-riding on his colleagues’ team efforts. Policy uncertainty refers to the impact of unexpected external shocks on policy outcomes about which only the policy irnplementer can know in detail. The principal may obtain at best inaccurate (or probabilistic) clues about what happens in the real world. 30 These agent problems have been considered in the context of the multi- institutional framework. For instance, Calvert, McCubbins, and Weingast (1989: 595) argue that: Imperfect information could arise at many points in the process. The elected authorities might not know exactly the true preferences of the agent. Indeed, policymaking by an agency often starts with the gathering of information about the policy problem to be addressed, information presumably not known to the elected authorities at the time of appointment. It may not even be clear in advance what the ultimate policy alternatives will be. . . .Any slippage between the expectations of the appointers and the preferences of the appointee creates the possibility that the agent’s preferences will have an independent effect on the ultimate policy choice. In a similar vein, Moe (1985: 1101) describes the possibility of limited political control over the NLRB decisions as follows: Added to this is the ever-present information asymmetry: the NLRB knows far more about the content and direction of its own behavior, from the lowest-level staff investigatory decisions to formal Board decisions, than these political authorities can hope to ascertain, even should they adopt costly and extensive monitoring methods. . .. Because the Board has its own interests to pursue, both as an organization (budget, slack, autonomy) and as a collection of individuals (career, ideology), the authorities can expect partial compliance at best. Regarding the consequence of vague procedural legislation and centralized monitoring system’s limited effects, Scholz et al. (1991: 832) also remark on behavior of OSHA inspectors as follows: Observers of regulatory enforcement consistently comment on the broad discretion that each inspector must deal with in determining how closely to scrutinize a given establishment, whether observed conditions constitute a violation, and whether a violation is intentional and should be cited or “accidental” and should be dealt with informally. A stylized case of bureaucratic noncompliance was provided by Wood’s study on EPA (1988). He asserts that a bureaucratic agency can effectively resist political pressure that is in conflict with its policy preference even during a period of limited and 31 resources and political constraints. Hierarchical control is effective only when there is a consensus among political principals and bureaucratic agency. Wood (1988: 227-8) concludes that: [C]onsiderations of hierarchy, although important, have obvious limitations for explaining outcomes in some implementation policy processes. For clean air, a principal-agent model would predict that the Reagan administration, given the most Republican Congress since the 19505 and extraordinary political influence, should have been able to shift the preferences of the environmental bureaucracy. . . .But in the end EPA’s revealed preferences were completely opposite from what the model predicted. . . .[E]nforcements were pursued more vigorously than at any time in the agency history and in a manner inconsistent with the ideological dispositions of elected political institutions. 2.2.2. Complexities of Hierarchy Even if there is no agent problems in the relationship between political institutions and political appointees in bureaucratic agencies so that top agency officials are under tight supervision of or in complete consensus with political authorities, there are still possibilities that the hierarchical control inside the bureaucratic organizations are ineffectual. This is due to the complexity of bureaucratic organizations and many other latent problems of internal control in hierarchies. This phenomenon can result especially when the superior-subordinate relations in a formal organization are unstable. In the first place, the weakness of superior-subordinate relations can be attributable to various agent problems such as adverse selection (misrepresentation of human resource quality), moral hazard (exploitation of informational advantage in part of operational units), and the inseparability of team-based activities inside the agency (Miller 1992). These factors tend to weaken the influence that the superior can exert on the subordinate. A more fundamental issue may be whether hierarchical organizational structures guarantee clear-cut lines of command. In fact, the non-linearity in organizational 32 ' . 1.3". 955;. m: I r LA I.’ lie“ .. 5”3.‘ Hub ’3‘. . .b.u. ’WI-w A‘Vclu. \-]~” T “Jr the ‘i'o‘. ,1 "a.“ i . It. \‘I- \“‘ a .- I .I. “slit. decision-making has been examined in an extensive body of the literature (Barnard 1938; Simon 1946; March and Simon 1958; Lindblom 1959; Landau 1969; Allison 1971; Cohen, March, and Olson 1972; Hammond and Miller 1985; Hammond 1986; Heimann 1993; Brehm and Gates 1997). There are several factors that can be thought to hamper effective hierarchical controls. Unclear lines of command in a formal organization may result from the conflict between different sources of influence such as expertise and formal authority (Hammond and Miller 1985). More specifically, there are various situations in which the formal-superior cannot control the expert-subordinate even in hierarchical organizations. The non-linearity of organizational decision-making also may take the form of bilateral relationships between the superior and the subordinate (Barnard 1937; Brehm and Gates 1997). The bilateral interactions may negate the strict command-and-compliance relations by emphasizing mutual adjustment and reciprocal influences between different ranks of a hierarchy (Landau 1969). F urtherrnore, when organizational goals are too ambiguous and the level of organizational unity is declining, subunits of the organization are likely to engage in competition for organizational resources and influences to promote their own parochial interests rather than organizational goals (Lindblom 1959; Allison 1971). These phenomena may stem from the limited human capacity or bounded rationality (Simon 1946). Organization may not be considered as a unitary rational actor but a cooperative human effort to increase human capacities to cope with complex environments. Although organization can improve the limited human capacity to some degree, organization itself also may trigger problems; organized activities can be characterized more accurately by satisfaction, mutual adjustments, the mobilization of 33 selective and sequential attention, and redundancy (March and Simon 1956; Landau 1969). The irony is that within hierarchical systems, the interactions among elements of the same system can be much more complex than the interactions between different systems. Due to this complexity, bureaucratic organizations may not be a reliable control mechanism. 2.2.3. Multilateral Institutional Relations The essence of the multi-institutional explanation of bureaucratic behavior is that the acts of the institutional actors are so intertwined that political influence is exerted as a concerted effort. However, due to their divergent policy preferences and goals, it may be difficult for these institutional actors to send consistent signals to the agency. In the separation of powers system, multiple principals may compete for greater influence on the agency. For instance, Moe (1984: 768) remarks that: Bureaus are “partial agents” of various governmental principals, without being under the complete authority of any one in particular, and without any common understanding of how authority is legitimately divided among the competing principals. . ..American politics is, by its nature, a context of competitive principals, it is hardly paradoxical that politicians impose constraints “on themselves”. In fact, politicians impose constraints on one another in a competitive effort to see to it that their own interests are protected from the intrusions of politician-opponents. This is rational for individual politicians and groups of politicians, but the net result is that politicians in general have a more difficult time controlling the bureaucracy. This can only tend to strengthen the foundations of bureaucratic autonomy. What is the impact of policy conflict among the political principals on bureaucratic autonomy? There are some theoretical and empirical answers for this question. Several bodies of empirical work on bureaucratic behavior in the area of regulatory policy have found that inter-principal competition and its inconsistent signals 34 result in bureaucratic noncompliance. For instance, as Moe (1985) put it, “[A]ll political authorities have formidable bases for influencing the NLRB in desired directions, but compliance is nonetheless problematic, which results partly from institutional conditions that they can do little about: the ambiguity and competitive arrangement of governmental authority” (1102). Similarly, Kelman (1981) observes that “When the president and the relevant congressional committee give an agency different signals, as in the OSHA case, the bureaucrat who is trying to be responsive is in a quandary. It also creates opportunities for agencies to play both against each other” (105). Bureaucratic noncompliance can also take place as a symbolic response to political demands while pursuing bureaucratic goals. Scholz and Wei (1986) remark in their analysis of OSHA enforcement activities that “[B]ureaucrats will respond to political demands by changing lower-cost, ‘symbolic’ output that may help generate the desired political support, even if it may have no effect on accidents, but will respond to task factors with ‘instrumental’ output that agency professionals consider to be more likely to affect outcomes, even though it is also more costly” (1255-6). Tsebelis (2002) also provides some empirical conjectures on the relationship between institutional fragmentation and bureaucratic autonomy. His analysis of the independence of the central bank in EU countries shows that institutional fragmentation as measured by the number of institutional and partisan veto players tends to increase the Central Bank Independence index scores. Although these descriptions reveal some patterns of bureaucratic response in conflict-ridden political environments, they do not provide a clear causal mechanism for the phenomenon. Theoretical developments on this subject have begun only in recent years. Hammond and Knott (1996, 1999) have developed a multi-institutional model of 35 bureaucratic autonomy. According to Hammond and Knott, bureaucratic autonomy can arise from institutional rules, such as executive veto, bicameralism, committee gate- keeping and judicial review, and the preference configuration of these institutions. Based on a veto-player game which approximates the decision rules that require a multilateral agreement, they demonstrate the existence of a set of equilibrium policies, which may be called the core. Knowing that any policy choice inside the core cannot be replaced by any decisive coalition of veto players, a farsighted strategic agency manager will choose the best policy (i.e., one closest to her ideal point) from the set of equilibrium policies. As Hammond (2003) put it, “The existence of a set of equilibrium policies, and change from one equilibrium policy to another, without fear that its chosen policy will be upset by any decisive coalition of elected officials” indicates the degree of bureaucratic autonomy (76). A larger core will give the agency head substantial room for “unilateral policy change.” Since the core gets larger with greater divergence among veto players, policy conflict or institutional fragmentation should lead to bureaucratic autonomy. While Hammond and Knott present the institutional and political conditions under which bureaucratic agencies can take unilateral choices, Epstein and O’Halloran (1999) and Huber and Shipan (2002) focus on institutional and political factors that determine the level of bureaucratic discretion in legislations. Both models begin with the question of why there are considerable variations in statutory restrictions on bureaucratic discretion. But they come to different conclusions. Epstein and O’Halloran (1999), based on a gridlock interval analysis, propose that while policy conflicts between the congressional committee and the chamber floor will lead legislators to write less detailed law (more discretion for bureaucrats), policy conflict between branches, the president 36 and Congress, will lead to more detailed law (less discretion for bureaucrats). But the former impact will diminish as the latter impact increases. In other words, heightened inter-branch conflict will generally decrease bureaucratic discretion, which is not consistent with the results of the empirical research already mentioned. Huber and Shipan (2002) attribute variations in legislative delegation to political and institutional factors: whether the legislators possess information and time to write detailed legislation (legislative capacity), to what degree politicians distrust the agency (policy conflict), and whether legislators have reliable non-statutory mechanisms that can induce desirable policy outcomes (non-statutory factor). They examine the independent impact of institutional arrangements such as the executive veto and bicameralism by holding these factors constant. In a model of the executive veto, a legislator can avoid the presidential veto only if she writes a high-discretion bill allowing the bureaucrat to implement a policy preferred by the president to the status quo. In a model of bicameralism, due to increasing bargaining costs, preference divergence between chambers will inhibit a restrictive bill that may secure only one charnber’s interest. Therefore, overall policy conflict between branches or between chambers is expected to increase bureaucratic discretion. 2.3. Limitations of Past Research Although an extensive body of the literature has examined various effects of institutional preferences and rules on regulatory agency actions, there are several weaknesses that should be addressed further. In this section, I discuss major limitations of this previous research, such as conceptual ambiguity of the notion of bureaucratic autonomy, 37 underestimation of the importance of inter-institutional relations, and methodological pitfalls. 2.3.1. Conceptual Ambiguity: ‘Independence,’ ‘Noncompliance,’ and ‘Reciprocity’ The notion of bureaucratic autonomy as a behavioral pattern remains ambiguous in the literature. Researchers tend to describe an autonomous bureaucracy in terms of their own images of bureaucracy such as a politicized institution (Rourke 1984; Meier 1993), a policy entrepreneur (Carpenter 2001), bureaucratic noncompliance (Wood 1988), or an agency’s responsiveness to both institutional and task factors (Scholz and Wei 1986; Scholz, Twombly, and Headrick 1991). The view of bureaucracy as a politicized institution has a long history. Norton Long (1949: 250) argued that “the lifeblood of administration is power.” Bureaucracies may cultivate their own bases of support to maintain their status in the broader political system. This view was echoed by later scholarly work on contemporary bureaucracies. Rourke (1984) and Meier (1993), for instance, contend that bureaucracies can capitalize on their better knowledge of policy problems and implementation technologies, cohesive professionalism, effective leadership to bring resources and authority to the organization, and capacities to mobilize external support to curb political opposition. Moreover, bureaucracies can represent diverse social interests without the mediation of political institutions. When viewed as such politicized institutions, bureaucracies can be described as “the fourth branch” of government that functions as if they are by themselves legitimate governance institutions. 38 The biggest problem with this view is that the major principles of a democratic polity are violated. In a democratic society, political power can be legitimate only when it comes out of the general public’s will, which is expressed and delivered through electoral processes. Only elected officials in the representative institutions have electoral mandates on which they are expected to base their policymaking. Unelected officials, however, can exert autonomy only affer they are granted or delegated authority by the representative institutions. Bureaucratic decision-making thus should be considered in the context of the broader political system. If bureaucrats exert independent influence on policy outcomes without the consent of the elected officials, they do mischief to the democratic principles. Furthermore, if bureaucracies are independent powerhouses, why should we observe bureaucratic responsiveness to politicians’ wishes? There has been ample evidence that bureaucrats consider institutional preferences when they carry out policy decisions made by the elected officials. In other words, bureaucrats cannot do whatever they want to do due to political constraints on bureaucratic actions. The notion of bureaucratic noncompliance has also been used to describe a particular behavioral pattern that does not match political institutions’ policy preferences (Wood 1988; Wood and Waterman 1994; Eisner and Meier 1990). For instance, after observing bureaucratic noncompliance in EPA regulatory activities, Wood and Waterman (1994: 126) argue that: Bureaucratic resistance to duly elected politicians may actually sometimes be more consistent with democracy and public preferences than bureaucratic responsiveness may be. However, observing bureaucratic noncompliance with policy directions is not sufficient evidence for autonomous bureaucratic choices. It remains unclear whether the 39 bureaucrats intended to perform assigned tasks in the opposite direction or they just failed to accomplish policy goals due to bureaucratic inertia or incompetence. In other words, the reasons why we oftentimes observe bureaucrats doing things differently from what they are told to do remain puzzling. Is it bureaucratic resistance or bureaucratic failure? Bureaucratic responses to both political and bureaucratic factors have often been used as evidence for bureaucratic capacity to find equilibrium solutions amid inconsistent and conflict-ridden external forces. For instance, Scholz and Wei (1986) contend that: The image of public bureaucracy is that of an organization that responds rationally to political demands but does so in a complex, federalist environment in which statutory commands and oversight by central institutions provide only one set of conflicting signals. The role of federal agencies in the American policy process is not simply one of translating central political decisions into organizationally efficient routines. . . .Instead, the creative role of the bureaucracy requires the development of organizationally feasible tasks that will gain and maintain sufficient support from critical actors in multiple operational arenas without undermining central support needed for formal budgets and statutory adjustments. This view bases its explanation on the assumption that bureaucratic behavior is a function of political inputs and bureaucratic discretion. The problem here is that there is no sound logic for distinguishing bureaucratic discretion from bureaucratic behavior. Simply put, it is erroneous to put bureaucratic discretion into the explanatory equation as an independent factor along with the political input variables, thereby ignoring the fact that bureaucratic discretion is also one aspect of bureaucratic behavior. Still there is another view that relations between democratic institutions and bureaucracy is reciprocal. When viewed as a ‘creative’ organization, bureaucracy may receive signals of political institutions only selectively to fit its organizational needs and 40 capacity. If politically imposed policy goals are balanced with bureaucratic demands, the relationship between political institutions and bureaucracy can be considered as being reciprocal. As Wood and Waterman (1994: 126) put it: [B]ureaucracies are more than vacuous receptacles of democratic power responding in any direction political principals want them go. Rather, bureaucracies also have power in their own right and sometimes use that power to alter outcomes in their relations with other actors. . ..[R]elations between politicians and the bureaucracy are bidirectional, with politicians sending signals and bureaucracies responding at some times and with bureaucracies sending signals and politicians responding at other times. (emphasis added) In a similar vein, Krause (1999: 12) argues that: Policy administration is the product of joint (endogenous) interaction between governmental organizations and political institutions, subject to environmental considerations. This perspective emphasizes the role of bureaucratic feedback to politicians so much that the relationship between political institutions and bureaucracy is considered to be bilateral. This kind of view underestimates the importance of asymmetry between the bottom-up bureaucratic influences and the top-down political influences. Although bureaucratic inputs may be one possible factor that elected policymakers should consider to set policy goals, it is only one of numerous factors. On the other hand, political inputs including general policy directions may be important more than any other factors for agency officials to set their own guidelines for policy implementation. A very informed observer, Herbert Kaufman (1981: 166), notes that: Members of Congress and their staffs have been known to defer to the judgment of the leaders of the agencies, accepting their reports and recommendations despite competing pressures from other quarters; influence ran in both directions. But the relationships were not symmetrical. Congress could rarely be led by the chiefs if it was strongly unwilling; the reverse was not equally true. Congress’s displeasure therefore was not risked often or casually by the chiefs, and its favor and respect were diligently nurtured. (emphasis added) 41 So what kind of behavioral patterns can be considered to be autonomous bureaucratic behavior? The concept of bureaucratic autonomy still remains ambiguous in the existing literature. As Hammond (2003: 76) decries: Earlier definitions referred to the general ability of a bureaucracy to do what it wants, but the definitions did not embed the bureaucracy in any particular political context. This left it unclear as to whether the bureaucracy could adopt any policy it wanted or just some policies, and if just some policies were feasible the definition did nothing to specify what particular policies were feasible and why. That is, at the center of the ambiguous conceptualization of bureaucratic autonomy lies confusion about the relationship between political accountability and autonomous bureaucratic behavior. All those terms used by researchers, such as “Independence,” “Noncompliance,” and “Reciprocity”, build on the view that bureaucratic autonomy is an antithesis of political accountability in varying degrees. Do autonomous bureaucracies always violate the principles of democracy? Is there some possibility that politically accountable bureaucracy can also exert some degree of autonomy? 2.3.2. The Omission of Collective Institutional Actions Although theoretical models increasingly emphasize the joint actions of multiple institutions in affecting bureaucratic decisions and actions, previous empirical research seems to be based on an insufficient understanding of the nature of interactions among political principals and agency officials. Most empirical research on political control did not appropriately consider how multiple principals interact with each other. Early works focused only on the dyadic relationship between one political institution (i.e., either Congress or the president) and one agency (Weingast and Moran 1983; Moe 1982, 42 1987). Analyses of the dyadic interactions have produced only inconsistent results. Depending on their focus, it is Congress but not the president or the president but not Congress to whom agencies are held accountable. Considering the fact that all those institutions have formal authority over agency actions, the dyadic approach leads to the omission of important independent variables. Since the dyadic models examine one institution while completely neglecting the others, the validity of any inference from the under-specified models is in question. As previously noted, recent empirical studies tend to use additive multi- institutional models that include all political institutions. Apparently these models are not under-specified. However, most of these studies underestimate the importance of the fact that these institutions interact with each other as they try to influence the agency. In other words, this approach builds on the erroneous assumptions that the relations among political institutions are nonreciprocal and that political influence flows through multiple, disjointed, and independent channels. Moe (1985: 1109) once concluded that: We have been able to estimate the impacts of each of the three governmental institutions [---the president, Congress, and the courts] while controlling for the other two, and each accounts for a significant portion of the variance, which adds substantially to our confidence in assessing political control. This kind of conventional empirical design does not fit our understanding of inter-institutional relations. We have learned from positive theories that the relative alignment of an agency with one particular institution cannot be identified by the covariate relationship in a multiple regression model (Hammond 1998). Instead, it is determined by the location of the agency’s ideal point and the distance between the status quo and all political institutions’ ideal points. That is, there are situations in which changes in agency behavior responding to an individual principal do not lead to a close 43 alignment of the agency and the principal. For example, pro-business shifts of bureaucratic actions corresponding to an inauguration of a Republican administration do not necessarily imply that the agency’s position is closest to the Republican president if we do not consider the agency’s position relative to other political institutions. If the agency’s position has been closely aligned with a Democratic-controlled Congress, the agency’s position can be closer to Congress than to the president even after the agency’s pro-business policy shifts. Since the additive multi-institutional model considers political influence as consisting of independent streams of discrete institutional preferences, there is no way to examine interactions among separate but intertwined powers. Hammond and Knott (1996: 120, 126) criticize this careless treatment of inter- principal interactions in empirical research as follows: [M]ost major components of the literature lack an explicit theory of how the president, Congress, bureaucracy, and courts interact to make public policy. Lack of an explicit theory makes it difficult to know what would constitute disconfirming evidence for any hypothesis about who controls the bureaucracy... .Some of these [empirical] studies have focused on the influence of just one institution at a time, and even the broader, multi-institutional studies rarely have tested theories that specifi/ the nature of the interactions among these institutions. This leaves the reader unsure as to whether key variables have been considered, or even whether the proper statistical measure has been constructed for evaluating data about influence over policy outcomes. (emphasis added) This gap between theoretical models and empirical research has not been bridged successfully; the formal-empirical divide in the literature on political control and bureaucratic autonomy still remains substantial. 2.3.3. Methodological Pitfalls How the extent of autonomous bureaucratic behavior can be empirically tested is even more ambiguous. By and large, past research has examined the presence of bureaucratic 44 autonomy from the perspective of a political stimulus and a bureaucratic response. This stimulus-response system can be expressed succinctly in the following form: Policy Outputs (Bureaucratic Behavior) = f (X, T) Bureaucratic behavior or policy output is considered to be a function of a set of political inputs (X) and a set of bureaucratic discretion variables (T). In the dyadic approach, X includes variables representing the policy preferences of one institution-- either the Congress or the president; in the multi-institutional approach, X includes the policy preferences of all seemingly pivotal institutions. If coefficients on both X and T turn out to be significant, one might conclude that not only do bureaucrats respond to institutional preferences X but they also exert discretion to adjust their task to factors in T (Scholz and Wei 1986). If coefficients on T but not on X turn out to be significant, one might conclude that institutional preferences do not matter and only bureaucratic factors do matter (Eisner and Meier 1990; Wood 1988). This stimulus-response system, however, entails methodological pitfalls when it is applied to testing hypotheses of politics-bureaucracy relations. The major problem is that it is extremely difficult for us to determine the extent to which bureaucrats are held accountable for democratic control mechanisms. If the net impact of political inputs can be articulated only by holding constant bureaucratic discretion factors, we should assume that the amount of bureaucratic discretion is independent from institutional preferences. However, we already know that bureaucratic discretion is not exogenous to institutional factors. Theoretical models have demonstrated that the amount of bureaucratic discretion may be determined by various factors such as the level of policy conflict between branches of the government and the transaction costs to write a detailed 45 legislation. Second, although bureaucratic responsiveness and bureaucratic discretion are both components of bureaucratic actions, the stimulus-response system as used in past empirical research treats bureaucratic discretion as one determinant of bureaucratic actions. This is odd since the amount of bureaucratic discretion or the level of bureaucratic autonomy is an essential part of bureaucratic behavior. Both bureaucratic responsiveness and bureaucratic autonomy (or discretion) should be explained by some other factors including the political institutions’ policy preferences. The other major problem is that empirical works include both some measures of the institutions’ preferences (i.e., interest group ratings, partisanship, and so forth) and some measures of the exercise of control tools (i.e., change in budget, appointment of new agency head, reorganization, and so forth) in the set of political inputs (X). Although both are important factors that influence agency actions, these should not be treated as if they are exogenous to one another. In fact, the likelihood of a use of control tools is also determined by the preference configuration of the institutional actors. The amount of money allocated to an agency carmot be independent from the policy preferences of the president and Congress. If the president and Congress do not want to maintain the current scope and extent of the agency’s program, they will reduce ftmds for it. If the president and Congress do not want to expand a regulatory agency, they will agree to choose a person who can streamline the agency on behalf of her principals. Unless these uses of control tools are seen to reflect the political principals’ preferences, there is no logical ground for one’s expectation that the principals’ preferences will make a noticeable difference in agency actions. When we predict some systematic relationship between institutional preferences and agency actions, we should 46 assume that agency officials will keep watch on changes in institutional preferences because the former will be afraid of punishment by institutional actors on bureaucratic actions that are not in accordance with institutional preferences. If we take this kind of endogeneity for granted, we should consider either the preferences of institutional actors or uses of control tools but not both at the same time. In sum, we cannot examine the effects of the preferences of institutional actors while controlling for uses of control tools such as budgets and appointments, and vice versa. 47 CHAPTER 3 THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK Positive theories of bureaucracy have asserted that agency actions are bounded by the elected officials’ preferences since politicians define policy goals and the set of feasible policy alternatives for an agency (McCubbins, N011, and Weingast 1989; Calvert, McCubbins, and Weingast 1989). Building on the principal-agent framework, these models assume that the amount of bureaucratic discretion is a function of two factors: informational asymmetry and policy uncertainty. First, following Weberian depiction of bureaucratic secrecy, informational asymmetry has received enormous attention (Bendor, Taylor, and Van Gaalen 1987; Banks and Weingast 1992). An informational imbalance between the political principals and the agent is thought to originate from the agent’s policy expertise and the politicians’ monitoring costs. Second, policy uncertainties, such as post-policymaking random shocks, are assumed to be revealed to policy implementers but not to policymakers, so that politicians end up with only limited knowledge about “real world” policy outcomes. In addition to the agent problems, a host of studies have focused on multi- institutional relations to explain varying degrees of bureaucratic autonomy. One line of research emphasizes the institutional constraints on the level of legislative delegation. Epstein and O’Halloran (1999) argue that policy conflict between different branches of the government will motivate legislators to impose heavier restrictions on agency actions. In contrast, Huber and Shipan (2002) contend that legislators opt for writing a high-discretion bill allowing the bureaucrat to implement policy preferable to other 48 institutional actors amid inter-institutional policy conflict in order to minimize the threat of executive veto and bicameral bargaining costs. In this context, Hammond and Knott (1996, 1999) make a unique contribution to our better understanding of bureaucratic autonomy in multi-institutional environments. Unlike other models, their model implicitly assumes that the agency has already been given lots of legal discretion. Rather, the focus of their model is on the question of whether the agency is able to take full advantage of the legal discretion it has been given. Hammond and Knott pay much attention to the very nature of the inter-principal interaction and the role of a strategically-sophisticated agency manager within the fiamework of multiple veto players.1 The institutional rules goveming inter-institutional relations such as the executive veto and bicameralism tend to lead to policy stability (or maintenance of current policy) since a major policy change can take place only if there is an agreement among key institutional actors on replacing the status quo policy with a new policy. Focusing on this theoretical expectation about policy change (or disequilibrium), Hammond and Knott demonstrate the existence of a set of status quo policies which those principals cannot agree to replace with other alternatives. Knowing this, a strategic agency head can choose a policy closest to her own ideal point in the set of equilibrium policies. Hanunond and Knott (1996: 144) argue that the potential variability of ' As they put it, “[T]he two major reasons for bureaucratic autonomy. . .are asymmetric information and multiple principals. The most general model should, of course, include both factors. However, incorporating asymmetric information would entail mathematical complexities which, for reasons for tractability, would require simplifications elsewhere in the model, especially a reduction in the number of institutions considered. In the face of this trade-off our choice is to maintain a relatively complete set of institutions” (1996: 127). 49 politically-feasible policy options for the agency indicates the degree of bureaucratic autonomy as follows: [Pjolitical autonomy [of an agency] means that the agency director can adopt a new policy without being reversed by the president or Congress. The key to understanding agency autonomy, then, is whether there exist any policies that the president and Congress cannot upset if chosen by the director. It follows that the most appropriate measure of an agency ’s political autonomy is simply the size of the set of equilibrium policies produced by the president and Congress. (emphasis in original) As the size of the set of equilibrium policies---the core---increases, so does the extent of bureaucratic autonomy. The size of the core, regardless of policy dimensionality, is non-decreasing or increasing with a greater preference divergence among the veto players. The size also is non-decreasing as new veto institutions are added.2 The extent of bureaucratic autonomy rests on some interactions of institutional preference configurations and institutional fragmentation (or the number of veto institutions). For instance, the added veto institution can increase the core only if it is a preference outlier; and an increase in preference divergence among outlying institutions can increase the size of the core even with a fixed number of veto institutions. Viewing bureaucratic actions in this way clarifies the conceptual confusion about the notion of bureaucratic autonomy in the literature. As Hammond (2003: 77) put it: [A] bureaucracy can be more or less autonomous, depending on the size of the set of equilibrium policies. Moreover, by relating the extent of bureaucratic autonomy to the size of a set of equilibrium policies, there is always a boundary to the set. This boundary sets limits on what the bureaucracy can and cannot do: it can move from policy to policy within this equilibrium set, but it cannot sustain a policy that lies outside this equilibrium set. [T]he preferences of the elected ofi‘icials will always collectively constrain the range of bureaucratic 2 These propositions build on findings of Hammond and Miller (1987) in their APSR article, “The Core of the Constitution.” Hammond and his coauthors have continued to extend them in a variety of policymaking processes (Miller and Hammond 1990; Hammond and Hill 1993; Miller, Hammond, and Kile 1996; Knott and Hammond 2000; Hammond 2003; Hammond and Butler 2003). Very similar propositions have been presented in several bodies of work by Tsebelis (1995, 1999, 2002). 50 choices. . ..[But] as long as the bureaucracy selects some new policy from inside the boundary the disagreements among the politicians will keep them fiom upsetting the bureaucracy ’s choice and imposing some other policy. (emphasis added) 3.1. A Spatial Model I now present a spatial model of bureaucratic policy choices to highlight basic relationships among policy actors and the underlying flow of causality. This model, which I call “Multiple-Principals and Large-N-Agents” or MPLNA, extends Hammond and Knott’s spatial model of bureaucratic autonomy in order to incorporate a large but finite number of agency officials. Agency actions can be seen as the aggregate sum of individual members’ actions. Take an example of regulatory enforcement activities of the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA). OSHA’s regulatory performance or regulatory stringency has been measured by the sum of individual enforcement officers’ activities such as the number of inspections, the number of violations cited, or the amount of penalties (Scholz et a1. 1986, 1991). Therefore, rather than assuming an agency as a unitary actor represented by a single head, we can consider an agency as a distribution of a large number of individual officials, each of whom has somewhat independent decision-making authority in the field. The hierarchical structure of bureaucratic organizations will be left aside despite its importance in shaping regulatory behavior (Moe 1985; Padgett 1981; Carpenter 1996). But not all intra- bureaucracy factors will be ignored; in particular, agency-level policy bias, viewed as a skewed distribution of bureaucratic policy preferences, will be included in the model. Let me begin by assuming that there are multiple veto players i = l, 2,.., k, whose ideal points are denoted by V,- and a large number of agency officials j = 1, 2,. . ., n, 51 whose ideal points are A]? Veto players are individual or collective actors whose agreement is necessary for a change of the status quo. It follows that a change in the status quo requires a unanimous decision of all veto players. In contrast, agency officials do not possess veto power. Each player’s utility profile is assumed to be single-peaked on his or her most-preferred policy and symmetric in a one-dimensional policy space, X = [0, 1]. In the context of regulatory policy production, 0 indicates a complete absence of regulatory activities and 1 indicates the maximal level of regulatory activities. At the agency level, the aggregate distribution of preferences (ADP) of the agency officials is assumed to be Beta-distributed such that A,- ~ Beta(a, b) in the domain of [0, 1].4 If the two Beta-distribution parameters are restricted to a = l and b = 1, this means that the agency officials’ ideal points are assumed to be spread evenly over the whole domain of the policy space. We can take advantage of the flexibility of Beta distribution when we consider various distributional-shapes of bureaucratic preferences in the latter discussion. Agency official j ’s policy choice is denoted by C}. Lastly, complete information is assumed: each veto player knows the other veto players’ ideal points; each agency official knows the veto players’ ideal points; and no random factor interferes between policy choices and outcomes. 3 It is implicitly assumed that a veto player is a representative member of each political institution for simplicity. For instance, under the bicameral-executive veto system, veto players can be thought to be the president, and the two chamber median legislators in the House and the Senate. In this case, the number of veto players is considered as k = 3. However, as discussed latter, the number of defacto veto players can be greater than 3 depending on different views of who the key congressional actors are. ‘ Since the range is confined to [0, 1], the standard Beta distribution is used here. That is, PDF =f(x) = (x""(1— x)"“)/B(a, b) and CDF = F(x) = Lxxa‘l (l — x)”‘l dx/ B(a, b) , 1 where B(a,b) = J; x"'1 (l - 10”"l dx ; O S x S l;a,b > 0. Latter in this section, I discuss several situations where agency officials’ preference distributions can vary. With this Beta-distribution it is easy to get a variety of distributional shapes by changing restrictions to the two shape parameters, a and b, so that we can incorporate agency officials’ heteroscedastic preference distributions into the spatial model. 52 3.1.1. Policy Disequilibrium and Policy Equilibrium Let me first consider the conditions of policy change (disequilibrium) and policy stability (equilibrium). Following Hammond and Knott, the condition of policy disequilibrium is a non-empty winset or W(SQ) =# Q; in other words, for a given status quo there exists a set of policy alternatives that make all veto players better-off. Figure 1(a) presents this condition. For simplicity, consider three veto players, i = 1, 2, 3, whose preferences are ordered as V, < V2 < V3 as illustrated in Figure l. The winset of an arbitrary status quo, W(SQ), is [SQ, V1+|V1-SQ|], which is the intersection of three winsets for the veto Playcrs, W1(SQ) = [SQ V1+IVrSQlL W2(SQ) = [SQ, V2+IV2-SQII, and W3(SQ) = [SQ, V3+| V3-SQI]. As long as W(SQ) is not empty, three veto players will agree on replacing the status quo with any alternative inside the winset. Next, the condition of policy equilibrium is an empty winset, that is W(SQ) = O. In other words, if there is no other policy alternative increasing all veto players’ payoffs, the status quo is maintained. In fact, the status quo with an empty winset is an element of the core, a set of policy alternatives that are not dominated by any other alternatives, given a profile of actors’ preferences and decision rules (Davis, DeGroot, and Hinich I972; Hammond and Miller 1987; Friedman 1990; Tsebelis 2002). This is due to the very nature of interactions between veto players: any decisive coalition of veto players cannot change the status quo without a multilateral agreement of all veto players. Figure 1(b) shows this stalemate. Any proposal to replace SQ with some other alternative, let us say to the left toward veto player l’s ideal point, V], will face veto by other two veto players. By the same token, a proposal favoring V2 will face veto player l’s opposition 53 Figure 1. Policy Disequilibrium and Policy Equilibrium (a) Condition of Policy Disequilibrium: A Non-Empty Winset W3(SQ) W2(SQ) W1(SQ) I o SQ V, V,+|V,-SQ| V2 V3 V2+|V2-SQ| V3+|V3-SQ| 1 — (b) Condition of Policy Equilibrium: An Empty Winset W3(SQ) W2(SQ) WKSQI 0 VI‘IVI'SQI V I SQ V2 V3 V2+IV2-SQI V3+IV3-SQI 1 54 and the attempt favoring V3 cannot avoid being vetoed by veto players 1 and 2. This equilibrium will be maintained for any status quo as long as it lies inside the interval of [V1, V2]- We can derive the following properties from the logic of policy (dis)equilibrium discussed above. Property 1. Policy disequilibrium: a non-empty winset: If SQmax( V.) for any status quo policy SQ, the winset W(SQ)= fl W.(SQ)¢ O. Property 2. Policy equilibrium: an empty winset: If min( V.)S SQSmax( V.) for any status quo policy SQ, the winset W(SQ)= fl W.(SQ)= Q. These properties together suggest that any policy alternative lying inside the interval of [min( V.), max( V.)] cannot be defeated by any decisive coalition of veto players, and thus these undominated policies remain stable. The interval of [min( V.), max( V.)] is called the Policy Equilibrium Interval (PEI) hereafter. 3.1.2. Policy Equilibrium Interval and Agency Actions What do these theoretical properties of the policy equilibrium interval suggest for the agency officials’ decisions? The policy equilibrium interval cannot change the preference profiles of bureaucratic agents. However, it can influence bureaucratic policy choices given the hierarchical arrangement governing the relationship between veto players and bureaucratic agents. More specifically, agency officials can make policy choices while striving to meet two conditions. First, agency officials will attempt to avoid political upset of their policy choices. In order for this condition to be met, agency officials should choose alternatives from the set of equilibrium policies such that min( V.) S C,- _<_ max( V.). 55 Agency officials know that if their chosen policy lies outside the interval the politicians could agree to replace the would-be status quo with a new policy. However, as long as agency officials adopt policy options inside the policy equilibrium interval of [min( V.), max( V.)], these bureaucratic choices are politically feasible following the logic of policy equilibrium---the lack of an agreement among the veto players. Second, agency officials will attempt to maximize their payoffs. For this condition, agency officials should adopt the option which is closest to their own ideal points such that minlAj — (3,]. The only way to minimize the loss of bureaucratic utility is to choose the options closest to their most preferred policy among the options inside the policy equilibrium interval. In sum, these conditions suggest that agency officials will adjust their choices to avoid a prospective political upset and also try to minimize their loss of utility. We can examine these strategically-sophisticated agency officials’ policy choices through two cases: (1) when the agency officials’ ideal points lie outside the policy equilibritun interval, and (2) when the agency officials’ ideal points lie inside the policy equilibrium interval. First, when agency officials’ ideal points lie outside the PEI, they will choose the policy that constitutes the boundary or “limit” of the PEI. For any agency officials whose ideal points lie to the left of [min( V.), max( V.)], min( V.) is the policy option that can maximize agency officials’ payoff, given that they cannot choose their own ideal points. And for those whose ideal points lie to the right of [min( V.), max( V.)], max( V.) can maximize agency officials’ payoffs. Therefore, we can deduce the following properties. Property 3. Agency’s policy choices with a non-empty winset: (1) If Ajmax( V.), agency officials’ policy choices (C1) are max( V.-), the upper limit of the policy equilibrium interval. Second, for those agency officials whose ideal points lie inside the policy equilibrium interval, agency officials’ ideal points can be chosen without fearing political upset. Property 4. Agency’s policy choices with an empty winset: If min( V.)S A, 5 max( V.), agency officials’ policy choices (C1) are A], their ideal points. What do these relations among elected policymakers and agency officials imply for bureaucratic actions in regulatory policymaking processes? Changes in the location and size of the policy equilibrium interval [min( V.), max( V.)] will affect bureaucratic choices and actions. For example, there are possibilities that the elected political leaders are replaced through electoral processes by others who have different policy preferences and that this political upheaval changes the policy equilibrium interval. In Figure 2(a) and (b), V, fails to get reelected and her position is taken over by V}. (> V3). As a result, the previous PEI, [V1, V3], is replaced by a new interval, [V2, Vl']. Consequently, both the location and the size of the interval have changed: the interval moves to the right and the interval gets smaller. The replacement of V; by Vl‘, which yields the shift of the policy equilibrium interval from [V1, V3] to [V2, V,’], will redefine the set of politically- feasible policy options for the agency and the extent to which agency officials can take unilateral actions. More succinctly, the agency’s policy choices can be presented as follows before and after the replacement of V, by V,’: VlifAj Cj=iAjifV2sAjsz V3ifV31-(t/100(b And then, the conditional mean, E(C,~| V., A}, a = 1, b = 1), and the conditional variance, Var(Cj| V., A], a = l, b = 1), of the agency officials’ policy choices in each trial are calculated and plotted. The left panel of Figure 5(a) portrays the effect of the policy equilibrium interval on the mean and variance in this simulation. As proposed by hypothesis 1, the leftward shift of the policy equilibrium interval tends to decrease the conditional mean of the agency’s regulatory production level. At the same time, consistent with hypothesis 2, a decrease of the size of the policy equilibrium interval also tends to decrease the conditional variance of agency choices (regulatory variability). Now consider the right panel of Figure 5(a). Here the policy equilibrium interval is held constant at [0, l] and the negative skewness of agency preference distribution gets increased by 0.001 for each trial such that A ,- = Beta(l — (t/1000), 1). As the agency preference distribution gets increasingly skewed in the stronger regulation direction, the conditional mean of regulatory production, E(C,~| V., A j, a = 1— (t/1000), b = 1), tends to increase with the fixed policy equilibrium interval. At the same time, however, the agency’s policy bias tends to decrease the conditional variance of agency choices, Var(C}| V., A], a = 1— (t/1000), b = 1), suggesting that agency choices are 70 Figure 5. Monte Carlo Simulation (a) Policy Equilibrium Interval “or” Agency Preference Distribution Policy Equilibrium Interval Agency Preference Skewness [0. 11-> [0. 0] Beta(1.1) -> Beta(.0001.1) g-q - q-- l- 024 - 02‘ t- Qn - ”.- r as] - 8".- - c c fiQ-i >0- éq- g..- “-1 v.1 o-l (b) Policy Equilibrium Interval “and” Agency Preference Distribution Mean Variance I I I r l I l I l l l T I 0 .1 .2 .3 .4 .5 .6 .7 .8 .9 1 O .1 .2 .3 .4 .5 .6 .7 . .9 1 Upperlelt'sLel‘lward Shll't Upper leit'sLeflwardShltt —— Beta(1,1) ----- Beta(.75,1) —— Beta(1.1) ----- Beta(.75.1) ---------- Beret.5.1) —-—-- Beta(.25,1) aerated) -'-" Betat.25.1) 71 constrained into pro-regulation policy measures as the agency preference distribution becomes skewed with the fixed policy equilibrium interval. Several observations can be made about these results. First, changes in the political environment of a regulatory agency can bring about substantial changes in policy outcomes. The horizontal movement of the policy equilibrium interval, which represents a change in the composition of elected policymakers from those who advocate stronger regulation toward those who support deregulation, tends to lead the regulatory agency to decrease its policy outputs. Second, these changes in the policy preferences of political institutions affect the amount of bureaucratic autonomy by increasing or decreasing the range of politically-feasible policy options from which agency officials can unilaterally make their choices. Third, the agency can make autonomous choices to the extent that there is a disagreement on an ideal level of regulatory policy outputs between the veto players. Unless all veto players have identical views on regulatory policy, agency officials always have some options from which they can choose while reflecting their own policy preferences without fearing a potential political threat. Last, the agency’s regulatory policy outputs can change in response to changes in the agency’s policy preference distribution, holding constant other factors including the politicians’ preference profile. With the location and size of the policy equilibrium interval fixed, an increase in the agency’s pro-regulatory bias can increase regulatory policy outputs. 72 3.1.4.2. The Conditional Effect of the Policy Equilibrium Interval on Agency Actions Next, I examine how the agency’s preference distribution can mediate the impact of the policy equilibrium interval on the agency’s policy choices. I create four different agency preference distributions: Beta(0.25, l), Beta(0.5, 1), Beta(0.75, l), and Beta( 1, 1). The first represents the greatest pro-regulation bias among the four, while the last represents complete neutrality. With these heteroscedastic distributions of agency preferences, I make the upper limit of the policy equilibrium move leftward toward deregulation by an increment of 0.001 for each of 1000 trials. Conditional means and variances of those four different agencies are plotted for comparison in Figure 5(b). The left panel of Figure 5(b) presents the conditional effect of the location of the policy equilibrium interval on the level of regulatory policy outputs. Consistent with H3, the effect of the policy equilibrium interval on the conditional mean of policy outputs tends to increase as the agency’s preference distribution becomes skewed. The rate of change in the conditional mean of agency choices in response to the upper limit’s shift is greatest when the agency preference distribution is skewed to the greatest degree (Beta(0.25, 1)). In contrast, the conditional mean of agency policy choices is the least sensitive to changes in the location of the policy equilibrium interval when the agency preference distribution is unskewed (Beta(l, 1)). In other words, there is a positive relationship between the skewness of the agency preference distribution and the effects of the policy equilibrium interval’s location on the conditional mean of regulatory policy outputs. 73 The right panel of Figure 5(b) presents the conditional effect of the size of the policy equilibrium interval on the variance of the agency officials’ policy choices. The size of the policy equilibrium interval has the greatest effect when the agency preference distribution is unskewed (Beta(l , 1)). Its effect is smallest when the agency preference distribution is most skewed (Beta(0.25, 1)). That is, there is a negative relationship between the skewness of the agency preference distribution and the effects of the policy equilibrium interval’s size on the conditional variance of agency policy choices. These theoretical experiments reveal subtler relations between preferences of political institutions and a regulatory agency’s actions. First, even a given amount of change in the politicians’ preference profile does not always bring about the same change in the agency’s regulatory policy outputs. It is likely that political institutions’ effects on agency actions are greater when the agency is skewed toward one of the limits of the policy equilibrium interval and when the political institution establishing the limit moves. By contrast, a change in the politicians’ preference profile may not substantially change the agency’s policy outputs if the agency preference distribution is unskewed or if the agency preference distribution is extremely skewed to one limit but the political institution constituting the other limit moves. Second, when there is a substantial disagreement on policy between the agency and the political institutions, any change in the politicians’ preference profile may not have a significant effect on the degree of bureaucratic autonomy. For instance, there is a possibility that the agency preference distribution is extremely skewed so that agency officials’ ideal points lie outside the policy equilibrium interval. In this case, even if the policy equilibrium interval is large so that there are many feasible policy options for the 74 agency, the agency officials will end up having to choose fi'om a very limited range of options. That is, the conflicts among the principals and agents tend to deprive the agents of the potential opportunity to capitalize on an inter-principal disagreement even if there is a substantial preference divergence among the principals. Third, the second observation suggests that as the preference divergence among a set of veto players and agency officials increases as a result of the agency’s policy bias, we should predict agency officials’ behavioral compliance with changes in the preferences of the veto players. This can be logically concluded from the fact that an increase in the agency preference skewness (policy bias) leads to a greater effect of the PEI’s location on the conditional mean of the agency’s policy outputs. When cheating is not assumed to be an available option for bureaucratic agents, the policy disagreement among principals and agents will reinforce the latter’s sensitivity to the former and at the same time make inter-principal conflict increasingly irrelevant to the degree of bureaucratic autonomy. 3.2. Veto Players Having demonstrated the importance of joint actions of veto players to agency actions, we need to determine which of those institutional actors should be included in the set of veto players. In order to clarify the membership of the veto-player set, we should discuss why a particular institutional actor should be considered along with other particular institutional actors. Surprisingly, previous empirical research has not yet raised this question. Researchers have considered numerous possible sources of political influence, not only the institution-level actors such as the president, the House, and the Senate, but 75 also other intra-institutional actors such as congressional committees, legislative parties, and congressional leadership. So which of these actors should be considered pivotal in policymaking process? Which of these actors has a greater chance of being perceived as crucial by agency officials? The president can be considered as a permanent member of the veto-player set as most work in the multiple-principal framework includes an independent executive veto player (Hammond and Miller 1987; Calvert, McCubbins, and Weingast 1989; Hammond and Knott 1996, 1999). The president possesses various powers such as the executive veto over congressional bills, appointment and removal of top positions in the civil service system, and budget requests. In addition to these formal powers, the president has ample discretion and resources to take initiative actions to influence the make-up of policies (Moe 1982; Moe and Howell 1999; Howell 2003; Lewis 2003). Presidential influence on individual legislators also is considered substantial (Kemell 1997; Bond and Fleisher 1990). It is almost impossible to ignore the pivotal role that the president may play in important policymaking. It may be legitimate, then, to treat the president as a political institution and a veto player rather than treating him as a part of the executive agency (i.e., Shipan 2004). However, Congress is different due to its complicated intra-institutional structure. Congress consists of two separate chambers, each of which is based on different sets of rules. And the operation of the chambers is decentralized to the system of congressional committees. Thus, as Hall (1996: 2) put it: Participation in Congress is seldom universal. It is never equal. Although most (sometimes all) members vote when specific decisions come to a formal roll call on the chamber floor, floor voting is only one and probably not the most important form of participation in the legislative process. Building a coalition for 76 a legislative package, drafting particular amendments, planning and executing parliamentary strategy, bargaining with or persuading colleagues to adopt one’s point of view---all these activities weight more heavily than voting in the decision-making calculus of most bills. However, there is no clear agreement among researchers regarding which of these various congressional actors should be highlighted in the legislative policymaking process. We can examine a few major perspectives on the composition of important congressional actors in the congressional literature, from which alternative sets of veto players can be constructed. 3.2.1. The Majoritarian Perspective The majoritarian perspective emphasizes the importance of majoritarian rules and the median members in the chamber (Maass 1983; Krehbiel 1991, 1998). According to this view, congressional decisions are determined for the most part by politics on the floor rather than other intra-congressional organizations such as the congressional committee system. Even if congressional committees retain policy expertise and information in their jurisdiction, they are organized in the manner that can efficiently serve their parent- chamber’s needs. In other words, it is the chamber as a whole that creates and maintains organizational structure of Congress according to its interests. The key strategy that can be employed by the chamber to maintain a degree of discipline inside Congress is to manipulate the distribution of preferences in each congressional organization (i.e., committee) through a variety of procedural tools. The chamber can appoint members of the committees in order to minimize the possibility that committees can challenge their parent chambers in two ways (Mass 1983; Krehbiel 1991). First, the chamber may assign members of committees whose median member 77 has preferences that are the same as the chamber’s median member. Then, committees’ decisions are likely to reflect the wishes of the chamber as a whole. Second, closely related to the first, the chamber may appoint members of committees that are representative of the full chamber. Decisions of these heterogeneous committees, thus, are unlikely to deviate from what one can observe on the floor. In addition to the Chamber’s ex ante manipulation of committee membership, the chamber possesses formal authority to reverse committees’ decisions if the former finds the latter inconsistent with its interests. Even if committees make legislative decisions that may serve their own particularistic interests and send them to the floor, the chamber as a whole can protect its policy goals simply by amending and defeating the committee’s proposals on the floor. That is, the chamber can use floor votes as safeguards against committees’ decisions that contradict the chamber’s preferences. According to this perspective, policymaking in Congress is governed by the principles of majoritarian decisions---the will of majorities of the chambers determines policymaking in Congress.6 While leaving out the subtle difference of procedural rules between the House and the Senate (see Binder 2003 for the evolution of the Senate to a majoritarian institution), the median member of each chamber can be thought to best represent institutional preferences. Then, we can consider the majoritarian veto-player set as consisting of policymakers whose preferences represent their respective institutions, such as the president, the House floor median, and the Senate floor median. 6 In fact, the extensive literature focuses on the supermajoritarian rules especially in the Senate such as 3/5 vote rule to invoke cloture for filibuster (Krehbiel 1991; Brady and Volden 1998). However, we cannot underestimate the importance of simple majority rules in the congressional process. Both the House and the Senate were originally created as majoritarian institutions in face of the fear that under the supennajoritarian rules that had been used in the Continental Congress, “it would be no longer the majority that would rule; the power would be transferred to the minority” (Federalist 58). In fact, individual Senators’ exercise of their right to filibuster can be discouraged by various factors including Senate leaders’ efforts, and most bills are processed under the simple majority rules in Congress (Binder 2003). 78 After all, this perspective may best portray the most fundamental feature of the separation of powers and bicameralism: political influences are exerted on bureaucratic actions as a result of a multilateral agreement among the majorities of veto institutions (Hammond and Miller 1987). 3.2.2. The Distributive Politics Perspective The distributive politics perspective highlights the role of congressional committees in addition to the majoritarian median members (Fenno 1973; Weingast 1984; Shepsle and Weingast 1987; Weingast and Marshall 1988; Miller and Moe 1983; Aberbach 1990; Hall 1993). This perspective contends that each committee has strong interests and autonomy in policy decisions under its jurisdiction. As Fenno (1973: xiii) put it: [C]ommittees are autonomous units, which operate quite independently of such external influences as legislative party leaders, chamber majorities, and the President of the United States. . . .[E]ach committee is the repository of legislative expertise within its jurisdiction; ...committee decisions are usually accepted and ratified by the other members of the chamber;. . .committee chairmen can (and usually do) wield a great deal of influence over their committees. Congressional committees are said to be characterized by homogeneous preferences among their members on issues under their respective jurisdiction and to have outlying preferences (e.g., high demander) compared to the rest of the chamber. That is, congressional committees are non-representative of the chamber as a whole. The independent and non-representative committees can be seen as a result of a few factors. First, the self-selected assignment process may reinforce the preferential bias of the committees. The assignment of members to committees is thought to be determined primarily by individual legislators’ reelection motivation and their constituents’ particular interests. Second, the committees’ insulation from the rest of the chamber can 79 stem from the committees’ symbiotic relationship developed with external actors such as interest groups and agencies over a long period of time. Congressional committees may make decisions in accordance with interests of these external principals rather than those of the chamber and party caucuses. Since the chamber defers to the committees’ monopoly over issues in their jurisdictions and since the norm of mutual forbearance among different committees tend to develop, committees can wield a strong gatekeeping power. Although the committee proposal can be amended on the floor under an open rule, a risk-averse committee median will vote not to send a bill to the floor if the expected floor amendment to the committee bill will be worse than a status quo policy (Hammond and Knott 1996: 135- 6); that is, without consent of the committee median, no new policy can be passed. Furthermore, the conference committees can be used by committee members to prevent noncommittee members from amending their legislation, which may be called “ex post veto” (Shepsle and Weingast 1987). In sum, we can think of the set of veto players consisting of five key institutional actors: the president, the two floor medians, the House committee median, and the Senate committee median. The interactions among these actors may influence the agency’s behavior in a way that can be distinct fiom how the majoritarian set of actors influences the agency’s behavior. 3.2.3. The Party Government Perspective The party government perspective emphasizes the importance of partisan goals and party leadership in legislative decisions (Rohde 1991; Cox and McCubbins 1993). This 80 perspective contends that agents of party caucuses, including the party leadership, the speaker, committee chairs, and party whips, can mobilize various parliamentary powers to enhance their partisan interests. Cox and McCubbins (1993: 2) succinctly summarize this perspective as follows: [P]arties in the House---especially the majority party---are species of “legislative cartel.” These cartels usurp the power, theoretically reside in the House, to make rules governing the structure and process of legislation. Possession of this rule- making power leads to two main consequences. First, the legislative process in general---and the committee system in particular---is stacked in favor of majority party interests. Second, because members of the majority party have all the structural advantages, the key players in most legislative deals are members of the majority party, and the majority party’s central agreements are facilitated by cartel rules and policed by the cartel’s leadership. In general, the influence of the parties on legislative policymaking can be identified in two ways. First, party caucuses may assign their loyal contingent to committees so that committee medians reflect the caucuses’ median. Through this partisan selection process parties can ensure that committee decisions are in accordance with partisan preferences (Cox and McCubbins 1993). Second, party caucuses may try to discipline pivotal legislators such as committee and floor medians. Especially when an issue is highly salient to party members and policy preferences become homogenized within each party and polarized between parties, the majority party leadership can force the committee medians and the majoritarian medians to be closely aligned with the majority party median (Aldrich and Rohde 1999). From this perspective, it is partisan politics that exerts the most decisive influence on legislative processes. The behavior of the majoritarian and distributive politics set of veto players in Congress may actually be governed by the concerted partisan efforts to pursue partisan goals. One can expect the legislative majority party to force policy 81 outcomes to be in its own interest when inter-party conflict is intense. Thus, the set of veto players can be thought to consist of five pivotal actors: the president, the House and Senate majority party medians in the floor, and the House and Senate majority party medians in the committee. 3.3. Issue Characteristics Policy researchers have argued that the regular participants in policymaking can be predicted by issue characteristics such as salience, complexity, and partisan interests (Gorrnley 1986; Eisner, Worsham, and Rinquist 2000). These factors can influence the motivation and interests of important policy actors to participate in the policy process. Therefore, participants in policymaking can differ across policy areas and over time depending on issue characteristics. In this section, I discuss the salience of the issue and the degree of partisan polarization that may affect the motivation of elected officials to attempt redirection of agency behavior. The influence of the three sets of veto players--- majoritarian, distributive, and party government sets---may be contingent upon changes in salience and partisan interest of a policy issue. 3.3.1. Salience The salience of an issue can change. Public attention and attitudes toward policy issues may change at an almost imperceptible pace over a long period of time (Stimson 1991). It may take generations to observe the shift of public attention from one issue to another one. However, some monumental events may break the long-term equilibrium and bring new issues to public attention. Disastrous accidents, scandals, or some great 82 achievements can suddenly attract intense public attention in a very short period of time (Kingdon 1995; Baumgartner and Jones 1993; Wood and Waterman 1994). These changes in issue salience have predictable policy effects. Heightened public attention to particular policy issues can provide incentives for politicians to take actions about the issue and collect information about the govemment’s previous policies and possible policy changes (Gormley 1986; Kingdon 1995). Especially when an issue receives national media attention and emerges on the national agenda, political leaders will eagerly follow the sequence of issue development and seize the crucial moment to take clear position. Politicians’ opportunity costs of engaging in such highly salient policy issue will decrease because the issue can increase the politicians’ visibility and political stakes, which compensates for the politicians’ time and resources spent on this issue. 3.3.2. Partisan Polarization Policy issues that polarize partisan interests and increase partisan unity will motivate political party leaders to step in to make some voices. Traditionally, some policy areas such as welfare, education, environment, and labor have been considered as battlegrounds between the competing partisan interests. These issues tend to mobilize partisan interests to induce policy outcomes that increase partisan benefits. Partisan interests can be mobilized at various levels from the local to the national. Local partisan networks consist of core party activities, local officials, trade groups, and local offices of the federal officials (Fenno 1978). These extensive partisan networks may compete with each other to insert their interests into the policy implementation process (Scholz et al. 1991). When those partisan policy issues reach the national agenda, a vertical 83 integration of grass-root party networks may take place. Under these conditions, party leaders at the national level will stand up to mobilize the national-level bases of partisan supports. In recent years, the role of the national party committees in aggregating local partisan interests has grown. The national party committees control campaign money, possess modern campaign expertise, and expand their role in local candidate selections. The nationalization of the US. party system provides the opportunity for party leaders not only to represent core party members’ ideology but also to put pressure on individual legislators to modify their behavior (Fiorina 1989; Jacobs 2001). With enhanced intra- party powers, the leaders of the majority party in Congress can use their superior parliamentary powers to accomplish partisan goals (Rohde 1991). These characteristics of policy issues thus can be expected to have considerable effects on which of the competing sets of veto players will actively participate in policymaking processes. In other words, the relative importance of the three sets of veto players may be contingent on the saliency of the issue at hand and to the extent the issue polarizes partisan interests (Maltzman 1997; Epstein and O’Halloran 1999, chapters 7 and 8; Aldrich and Rohde 1999; Hurwitz, Moiles, and Rohde 2001). These issue characteristics may affect the motivations of elected officials to participate in the policy process. Figure 6 presents my expectations about the effects of issue characteristics on the type of regulatory politics. When the issue is highly salient, the chamber or the majority party will be likely to force the committee median to be closely aligned with either the floor median or the majority party median. When the issue divides interests between parties, the majority party will be likely to make the majority party contingent in the committee 84 Figure 6. Issue Characteristics and Types of Regulatory Politics Partisan Polarization Weak Strong Low Distributive Issue Salience High Majoritarian Party Government 85 and the chamber median more closely aligned to the majority party median. Thus, when the issue is highly salient and divides the parties, it is likely that the PEI resulting from interactions between the president and majority party medians in the chambers and the committees will be most influential in affecting agency actions. When the issue is highly salient but does not divide the parties, the president and two chamber medians will make up the PEI. When the issue is neither salient nor party-dividing, the PEI resulting from the interactions among the president, the chamber medians, and outlying committee medians will be most influential. H5: The effects of the majoritarian, distributive, or partisan PEI’s on an agency’s regulatory actions vary according to the salience and the partisan polarization of the policy issue. HS-l: As issue salience increases and polarization decreases, the majoritarian set of veto players will be more likely to affect the level and variability of an agency’s regulatory actions. H5-2: As issue salience and polarization decrease, the distributive set of veto players will be more likely to affect the level and variability of an agency’s regulatory actions. H5-3: As issue salience and polarization increase, the partisan set of veto players will be more likely to affect the level and variability of an agency’s regulatory actions. 3.4. Statistical Model: Bridging the Formal/Empirical Gap My spatial model of multiple principals and bureaucratic autonomy has proposed that joint actions of political institutions affect bureaucratic actions in two ways: while the location of the policy equilibrium interval (due to political institutions’ policy preference) affects the level of regulatory policy outputs, the size of the policy equilibrium interval (policy disagreement among political institutions) affects the 86 variability of bureaucratic choices. Therefore, empirical testing should focus on the effect of the policy equilibrium interval on agency officials’ actions in two aspects: the conditional mean of policy outputs and the conditional variance of policy choices. The Maximum Likelihood Heteroscedastic Normal Regression Model (Franklin 1991; King 1998) is chosen to accomplish the goal of an appropriate empirical testing of the spatial model. The Heteroscedastic Normal Regression Model is a good match to the nature of propositions since it enables us to estimate determinants of not only the conditional mean (like OLS) but also the conditional variance.7 If the dependent variable Y.. is regulatory policy actions of an agency i at year t, we can use the following likelihood function:8 :7”) ——7] (1) i=1 :-1 H:_l271t0':e Unlike the likelihood function for the OLS, this function includes the non- constant variance (0*2 ) 1n addition to the mean ( it“). Since our purpose is to estimate the institutional factors’ effects on both the mean and variance, we can reparameterize the likelihood function as follows: ( X a) L: ..._ l'lfl f ”expat/.13) zl expmm l (2’ 7 For the statistical approach that focuses on the stochastic components in the political science literature, see Franklin (1991), Jacoby (1988), Tsebelis (1999), Alvarez and Brehm (1995), and Paolino (2001). ' This likelihood function depends on the Normal distribution. With the Normal distribution, we should assume that the agency officials’ preferences are distributed symmetrically and centered on its mean. However, in the previous discussion of spatial model, the agency officials’ preferences were assumed to be spread with the Beta distribution. Despite this difference, simulations show that the predictions regarding the conditional mean and variance remain the same with these two different distributions. 87 Now, we have one equation for the conditional mean ,U..= ..a and the other equation for the conditional variance 0i: exp( W..fl). In other words, the conditional mean (the level of regulatory policy outputs) and the conditional variance (the variability of agency’s regulatory choices) are assumed to be determined by two different sets of variables X.. and W.., respectively. Then we can estimate parameter vectors [3 and a by maximizing the following log-likelihood function: _1 (Yr: —Xtta)2 :72: I. .1 fl will 2i=li=12t=li=l Model specifications for these two equations can be straightforward. First, the conditional mean equation can be specified in a partitioned form as follows to test the hypotheses about the effect of the location of the policy equilibrium interval on the level of regulatory policy outputs or bureaucratic responsiveness: Policy Output Level ([1,. ) = a.) + alX... + a2X..2 (5) where X... includes a set of measures on the location of the policy equilibrium interval in the policy space (i.e., lower and upper limits) and issue salience and X..2 is a set of other control variables. More specifically, X... = Location of the PE], Issue characteristics, Location of the PEI *Issue characteristics X..2 = Control variables 88 Second, the specification for the conditional variance equation can be done in a partitioned form as follows to test the effect of the size of the policy equilibrium interval on the variability of regulatory policy choice or the degree of bureaucratic autonomy: Variability of Policy Choices (0;? ) = exp(flo + )9. W... + fl2 Wm) (6) where W... is a set of measures on the size of the policy equilibrium interval and issue salience and W..2 includes a set of other control variables. W... = Size of the PEI, Issue characteristics, Size *Issue characteristics W..2 = Control variables In order to examine the non-constant institutional effects that are theoretically predicted to vary with the skewness of the agency preference distribution, I use Quantile Regression (Koenker and Bassett 1978; Buchinsky 1994). Quantile Regression, via the Minimum Distance (MD) algorithm, enables us to estimate institutional effects at different quantiles of the entire distribution of the dependent variable (Y..) or regulatory policy actions of agencies.9 Following Koenker and Bassett (1978), the 6th conditional quantile of the dependent variable Y. given a vector of X is given by: Q9(Y.|X.)=Xbo,wherei= l,...,n and0<6