ENERGY UTEUZATION BY HOUSEHOLDS AND TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT AS , A WAY TO iNCREASE iTS EFFECTIVENESS Elissel’tation for the Degree-of Ph. D, MECHEGAN STATE ,UNEVERSITY OTTO FREDERICK .KRAUSS 1974 ~ v.9; ' ‘ *IIM- . LIBRARY 5' Michigan "irate University This is to certify that the thesis entitled ENERGY UTILIZATION BY HOUSEHOLDS AND TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT AS A WAY TO INCREASE ITS EFFECTIVENESS I presented by Otto Frederick Krauss has been accepted towards fulfillment of the requirements for Ph.D. Jag-gem Materials Science BM 3, M M37“) Major professor Date May 10, 1974 0-7 639 my?" HDAB 8: SUNS" BUUK BINDERY INC. I \ LIQRARY amoeas ‘5‘ r-__, r it Spamwcat mam“ “a“ .ka , H I \. v , ‘FJ \_ '4' ABSTRACT ENERGY UTILIZATION BY HOUSEHOLDS AND TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT AS A WAY TO INCREASE ITS EFFECTIVENESS by Otto F. Krauss Energy shortages on the one hand, consequences of energy use on the other hand, are threatening our way of life. Shortages are manifest in the difference between availability and expectancy, largely a societal phenomenon. Market, public policy, and technology in combination -- governed by the level of knowledge -- will continue to change the relation- ship between availability and expectancy. Several options will be pursued: find new as yet unkown sources, increase and improve production and distribution of known ehergy resources, or, reduce consumption by means of social measures; but the outcome is difficult to predict. More pre- dictable appear to be the consequences of the intensive management of end-uses, that is, maximizing utilization effectiveness. This approach is the subject of this study. The work is presented in two parts. The first, set against a general background of the energy situation in the United States, is a description of the great multitude of energy uses, practices, and potentials for improving utilization efficiency. An attempt is made to clarify the meaning of "conservation" which relates to the issue. This part then ex‘ §>\ Otto F. Krauss constitutes a data base essential for the development of a management method aimed at reducing the differential between availability and expec— tancy, in tune with "a Btu saved is a Btu earned." The second part of the study points to the critical role of the decisions made within family units which control energy consumption, either directly, or indirectly in the form of products and services. Seen in this light, the residential or household sector is responsible for an exceedingly large, but still indistinctly dimensioned share of the overall demand for energy resources. It is in this sector that energy consumption is assumed as least amenable to management-rationalized practices. Yet, major benefits could accrue from such practices to consumer, the environment and society as a whole. The management method that is proposed and illustrated is an outgrowth of the concept of technology assessment. The application of the concept to analysing and evaluating the great multitude of components comprising the final aggregation of energy consumption in a micro-approach is new, and differs to some extent from the macro—projects for which technology assessment was originally introduced. New also is the use of a "satisfaction index" which depends on four interrelated "human-wants categories," a scheme by which environmental, social, and individual human factors are added to the familiar provision of goods and services. The index is an attempt to create a scale for measuring well-being, i.e., quality of life, which in industrial society critically depends on adequate supplies of energy (and materials and information). Otto F. Krauss The proposed scheme goes beyond conventional management methods which normally operate in an almost exclusively economic and technical context. Evaluation of alternatives is illustrated by means of crude trial assessments done by four different groups of "assessors" guided by varied sets of instructional information. The assessments identify and thereby permit the ordering of respective advantages and disadvantages in terms of their impact on the categories which determine the quality of life. The findings justify further exploration and development of the scheme. It elicits remarkably few difficulties in the mechanics of its use. However, it does exhibit shortcomings whith respect to uniformity and consistency among the individual assessments. Initial investigation of the problem discloses, among other points, need for: (l) judicious peparation of the assessor, (2) careful selection and description of alternatives, (3) greater specificity with respect to categories, (4) weighting of categories, (5) time horizons, and (6) further trials giving effect to the preliminary findings. It appears that at the very least the scheme has merit as a heuristic device useful in educating decision-makers. It promises to improve capability in socially-effective decision-making, particularly at the level of the family unit where most of the critical decisions with respect to energy utilization are made. ENERGY UTILIZATION BY HOUSEHOLDS AND TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT AS A WAY TO INCREASE ITS EFFECTIVENESS by OTTO FREDERICK KRAUSS A DISSERTATION Submitted to Michigan State University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY Department of Metallurgy, Mechanics and Materials Science T974 (9 Copyright by OTTO FREDERICK KRAUSS 1974 TABLE OF CONTENTS Page List of Tables . . . . . . . . . ....... . ........ iv List of Figures ......................... vii BIBLE I. INTRODUCTION; Energy, the Environment, and Energy Consumers .................. l 11. DEMAND FOR ENERGY ..................... 9 III. PRICE ........................... 18 IV. SOCIAL FORCES ............ . . . ........ 25 V. "THE ENERGY GAP" ..................... 34 VI. "CONSERVATION" ...................... 50 VII. ENERGY UTILIZATION CONTROLLED BY FAMILY-UNIT DECISIONS . . 58 l. RESIDENTIAL ENVIRONMENT AND AMENITIES ......... 65 a. Shelter ...................... 65 b. Thermal Comfort .................. 75 c. Lighting ..................... 92 d. Leisure and Recreation . . . . . . ........ 109 2. HOME EQUIPMENT .................... 113 a. Indoor Climate Control .............. ll7 b. Mater ....................... 132 c. Kitchen Appliances ................ 137 d. Home Laundry and Fabrics Care ........... lSl e. Miscellaneous Devices ............... 157 Page 3. TRANSPORTATION PERIPHERAL TO THE RESIDENTIAL ENVIRONMENT ...................... 158 PART B TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT AS A MANAGEMENT METHOD .......... 169 Energy-Use Decisions, Their Impact And Their Measurement ...................... 169 A Proposed Method for the Measurement and Assessment of Alternatives. . ....... . ..... l75 Alternatives ....................... l86 Assessment Trials ..................... 194 Trials Experience and Findings Summarized ......... 204 SUMMARY ............................. 2l2 LIST OF REFERENCES . ...................... 220 APPENDICES A. ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN THE UNITED STATES BY END USE 1960-1968 . . ............... 229 B. HUMAN-WANTS CATEGORIES BREAKDOWN ..... . ..... 230 C. MICRO-TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT. ...... . . . . . . . 234 D. MICRO-TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT: Domestic Clothes Drying . 237 E. MICRO-TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT: Domestic Clothes Drying . 243 Table 10. 11. LIST OF TABLES TOTAL USE AND PER CAPITA U.S. ENERGY AND ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION, GNP AND POPULATION 1920-1970 ......... TOTAL U.S. ENERGY CONSUMPTION, BY SOURCE AND FORM OF USE 1920-1970 ...................... ELECTRICITY, PER KILOWATT-HOUR (kWh) YIELD DERIVED FROM BASIC FUELS 1920-1970 ............. TOTAL U.S. CONSUMPTION OF ENERGY, BY SOURCE AND TWO CONSUMING SECTORS, 1970 ................ DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION, BY SECTORS, 1970 ...................... TOTAL AND SECTORAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN THE UNITED STATES, 1960 AND 1968 ................ RESIDENTIAL GAS CUSTOMERS PERCENT HEATING WITH GAS, TOTAL, AND AVERAGE USE 1950-1970 ........... RETAIL PRICE INDEXES FOR FUELS AND ELECTRICITY, CONSUMER PRICE INDEXES 1940-1970 .............. FUEL AND RELATED COSTS AS A PART OF THE FAMILY BUDGET, FROM SURVEYS 1917/19, 1934/36, 1950, 1960/61 ........ PRICE INDEX OF APPLICANCES VS. INDEX OF ALL ITEMS 1950-1970 ......................... WOMEN IN THE LABOR FORCE 1900-1972 ............. iv Page 11 12 13 14 15 16 21 22 23 24 25 Table Page 12. MARITAL STATUS OF WOMEN IN THE CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE 1940-1970 ......................... 26 13. ELECTRICITY FROM HYDRO-POWER 1950-1970 .......... 40 14. SOURCES OF ELECTRIC ENERGY, 1950-1970 ........... 41 15. AGE OF HOUSING STOCK, 1950 AND 1970 ............ 72 16. RESIDENTIAL ALTERATIONS AND REPAIRS ............ 73 17. LIGHTING LEVEL IN THE UNITED STATES, YEARS 1900-2000 . . . 100 18. HOME ENTERTAINMENT, ESTIMATED ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION. . . 110 19. RESIDENTIAL HEATING EQUIPMENT AND HEATING FUELS 1970 . . . 118 20. RESIDENTIAL AIRCONDITIONING 1970 ............. 119 21. APPARENT EFFICIENCY RANGES 0F HEATING EQUIPMENT ...... 122 22. ESTIMATED ENERGY CONSUMPTION, HUMIDIFYERS, DEHUMIDIFYERS, AND FANS ....... . .......... 131 23. RESIDENTIAL HOT-WATER NEEDS .......... . ..... 135 24. ESTIMATED ENERGY CONSUMPTION, REFRIGERATORS AND FREEZERS . 138 25. DOMESTIC COOKING FUELS, BY OCCUPIED HOUSING UNITS ..... 143 26. ESTIMATED ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION, HOME LAUNDRY AND FABRICS CARE ............... 151 27. WASHERS AND DRYERS IN U.S. HOUSEHOLDS 1970 ........ 153 28. DISTRIBUTION OF ENERGY WITHIN THE TRANSPORTATION SECTOR, 1970 . . . . ................... 159 29. ENERGY EFFICIENCY OF PASSENGER TRANSPORTATION ....... 161 30. USE OF PRIVATE AUTOMOBILE, AVERAGE LENGTH OF TRIP BY ITS MAJOR PURPOSE . ....... . . . . . ...... 162 31. USE OF PRIVATE AUTOMOBILE, TRIP LENGTH BY PURPOSE AND RESIDENCE, OCCUPANCY, AND TRIPS PER WEEK AND PURPOSE . . . 162 Table 32. 33. 34. 35. 36. 37. 38. 39. 40. 41. 42. ESTIMATED ANNUAL MILES PER AUTOMOBILE ........... AVERAGE FUEL CONSUMPTION STANDARD-SIZE, COMPACT-SIZE, AND SUBCOMPACT-SIZE AUTOMOBILES .............. AVERAGE AUTOMOBILE OPERATING COSTS, STANDARD-, COMPACT-, AND SUBCOMPACT-SIZE ............... TRIAL ASSESSMENT N0. 1 .................. TRIAL ASSESSMENT NO. 2 .................. COMPARISON BETWEEN TRIAL ASSESSMENTS N0. 1 AND 2 ..... TRIAL ASSESSMENT NO. 3 .................. TRIAL ASSESSMENT NO. 4 .................. TRIAL ASSESSMENT NO. 5 .................. TRIAL ASSESSMENT NO. 6 .................. SUMMARY OF DATA ...................... vi Page 163 164 165 197 199 201 202 203 206 LIST OF FIGURES Figure Page 1. STRUCTURE OF RESIDENTIAL DEMAND FOR ENERGY ........ l7 2. THE ENERGY DELTA ..................... 47 3. ECONOMIC THICKNESS OF INSULATION ............. 68 4. SCHEMATIC OF SIMPLIFIED THERMAL COMFORT VARIABLES . . . . 76 5. THE NEW ASHRAE COMFORT CHART ............... 84 6. SCHEMATIC DIAGRAM OF BUILDING-INSULATION AND HUMAN-BODY HEAT TRANSFER ............... 89 PARTIAL-SATISFACTION CURVES ............... 178 8. RELATIONSHIP OF SATISFACTION INDEX Si TO STATE OF HUMAN-WANTS CATEGORIES Xi ............ 180 9. EFFECT OF RESOURCES ON HUMAN-WANTS CATEGORIES ...... 182 10. LEVELS OF SATISFACTION .................. 183 vii PART A I. INTRODUCTION: Energy, the Environment, and Energy Consumers The use of tools and the utilization of energy have traveled a par- allel path through man's recorded history. The story of industrialization is interwoven with the development of tools to extend man's dependence on energy, first to make the tools, and then to power them. The energy out- put of primitive man's own body was supplemented by energy stores of the animal and plant world, plus natural energy existing in the earth environ- ment, fire, wind, water, which in turn are derived primarily from the most basic energy resource of all, the sun. In addition, through uses of energy, man has sought comfort and amenities, mobility and communication through the employment of energy forms, such as artifically lengthening the natural daylight hours. Higher-order civilizations depend on and can only function through power derived from non-human energy, indeed, fan- tastic quantities of it. Man himself is good for only about .05 horse- power of external work on the average (1 kWh/day), whereas the U.S. per capita daily energy consumption is about 800 kWh/day equivalent.(]) Through man's earlier ages he has resorted to the use of energy re- sources that were mostly renewable on the scale of man's lifetime. The (l) M. Jack Snyder and Cecil Chilton, PLANNING FOR UNCERTAINTIES: Energy In The Years 1975-2000, in Battelle Research Outlook, Vol. 4, No. 1, 1972, Battelle Memorial Institute, Columbus, pp. 4 and 5. 1 2 industrial era, by its increasing demands for energy, ushered in the large-scale use of non-renewable fossil fuels, apparently starting with coal and peat, then later on, oil, gas, and nuclear fuels. Application of power, extracted and converted from these fuels, has grown at compound rates, especially in the United States. It is difficult to assess, or even comprehend, the magnitude of what energy means to modern society. Attempts are frequently made to character— ize it by quoting the fact that the highly industrialized United States with merely 6% of the world's pepulation uses 35% or more of the world's energy.(2) It is not clear what this statement is supposed to imply. To some persons high energy consumption is a good thing, to others it is a sin. The citing of data that had been intended to bring the issue into better focus, for example, that energy consumption in the United States represents about 4% of GNP,(3) does not help much. It only goes to Show the need for great care in interpreting available information when assess- ing the impact of energy uses. An energy resource by the usual definition is not a resource until it is available for use. It is the problem of availability which is of high- est concern in any discussion of energy problems. Technology, functioning in accord with natural laws, has the capability to increase availability, which in turn encourages the development of energy technology. The process has been closely linked to economic growth and development, although by no means are all of the relationships well understood. (2) President Richard M. Nixon, in an Energy Message to the United States Congress, June 29, 1973 (as reported in the Detroit Free Press, June 30, 1973). (3) , TIME Magazine, May 7, 1973, p. 41. 3 Abundance and availability of fossil fuels made them cheap--so cheap in fact, that the freest use was taken for granted. Expanding demand, and the resulting scale of production, reduced costs. Technology helped to make these reduced costs possible. The promise of atomic power bolstered the notion of the availability of cheap energy. The energy enterprises did their best to promote consumption and new uses of energy, as did the sup- pliers of energy-consuming devices. The fantastic economic growth in the United States, supported by available energy resources, eventually made these resources into a strategic necessity. During more recent years, voices of doubt and concern over effects on man and his environment were being heard with increasing fre- quency. "Environmental pollution" and "ecological damage" became key phrases. It was pointed out that human health and the future of mankind were being endangered, that the cheap energy costs ignored significant externalities. Questions centered on the waste-assimilation capacity of the environment-~which society has to live with and live in--to absorb the massive and often potentially dangerous wastes generated in energy produc- tion and consumption. The "great ecology movement" was symbolically born when President Johnson pronounced his "great-society" policy. "...the water we drink, the food we eat, the very air we breathe, are threatened with pollution..."(4) At the same time the late President stated that "the great society rests on abundance." It did not take very long to recognize, however, that such abundance has absolute limits. Many writers and scholars became preoccupied with the environmental issues, and only much more recently with the (4) Lyndon B. Johnson, speech at Commencement Exercises, Ann Arbor, Michigan, May 22, 1964. 4 availability of natural resources, especially energy resources.(5) Complaints were voiced that the energy industries, supported by regula- tory policy, had aimed investments solely at increasing productive capac- ity, with only token allocation to R & O, and that little consideration had been given to environmental impacts and their social costs.(6) The ecological concerns so expressed took concrete form in a series of federal and state legislative acts to protect the environment. That energy use is to various degrees in conflict with the environment found slow acceptance, as is the case with the finiteness of availability of non-renewable energy resources. Viewing these developments with hindsight, one can see that the pre- occupation with the environmental issues was one of the factors that delayed our coming to grips with how we use our earth resources, particularly energy resources. It took until the early 1970's for the energy problem to become recognized in its own right. At some not very ascertainable point in time, the energy issue surfaced to stand side by side with the environment issue, the causes of which are to a large extent to be found in the various forms of energy utilization. To put it differently, a fair question might be: why did society look at environmental degradation and engage in efforts to halt it, rather than face the energy problem itself, making energy utiliza- tion more efficient in economic, technical and environmental terms, (5) A comprehensive collection may be found in: SELECTED READINGS ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN RELATION TO POPULATION INCREASE, NATURAL RESOURCES AVAILABILITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONTROL AND ENERGY NEEDS, Committee on Interior and Insular Affairs, U.S. Senate, SR 45, Series 92-3, USGPO, Washington, 1971. (6) CONSIDERATIONS IN THE FORMULATION OF A NATIONAL ENERGY POLICY, Committee on Interior and Insular Affairs, U.S. Senate, SR 45, Series 92-4, USGPO, Washington, 1971, particularly p. 24. 5 conserving energy, and thereby solving both energy and environment problems simultaneously? In retrospect, it almost seems that for some period of time the illusion persisted that environmental problems had to be and could be solved independent of, and without interfering with, patterns of growth in energy consumption. That additional amounts of energy were to be used for "environmental protection" seems to have escaped notice. Depletion of non-renewable energy resources was given small weight in the debate over what was happening to the ecology. Now that the problem is being recognized for what it is, courses of action are being set into motion. Fortunately, there are several policy alternatives. One such alternative is for government, business operators, families, and individuals to put into effect a program of improving on energy-utilization technologies and practices directed toward using avail- able energy resources more wisely. The assumption is that there are almost unlimited opportunities to do so, that benefits in terms of eco- nomic and enviromental cost reduction could indeed be substantial, and that extension of available fuel resources so achieved would allow more time for the development of, and transition to, new or improved energy re- sources and technologies, knowledge and skills. All of this is being said mindful of the constraints imposed by natural laws, for example thermodynamics, which tell us that energy once utilized cannot be recycled. Energy availability imposes a limit on man's activities, and this study accordingly argues the case for energy utilization efficiencies to be carefully optimized in the best interest of society.(7) The objective of the present study is to develop a methodology, or rather a framework for a methodology, which can identify and order the alternatives leading to the deliberate adoption of best-possible strategies. The importance of energy resources to the quality of human life mandates that considerations other than market distribution of energy be a part of the strategies, that is, the physical environment, the individual self, and the social environment along with social justice. In a wider frame- work, however, the concept of quality of life might be extended to encom- pass and weight values beyond the ones commonly considered. In this case the arguement would require reexamination as suggested in the second part (Part B) of this work. The first and obvious step is to assemble a data base. It would indeed be a large task to scrutinize all energy uses. In order to limit the study to one specific area of interest and need, the "residential sector" was chosen. According to available statistical information this sector accounts for about one-fifth of the energy consumed in the United States.(8) The other major sectors are industry, transportation, and commercial (often lumped together with residential). Sectoral division in this manner for purposes of rationalizing energy consumption, that is by industry, transportation, commercial and residen- tial, or, by industry, transportation, electric power, commercial and residential, as it has come into use by policy-makers and students of the (7) For an overview of how energy use to develop physical resources in the production chain of goods and services is limited by thermo- dynamic principles beyond purely economic constraints, see: Peter Chapman, NO OVERDRAFTS IN THE ENERGY ECONOMY, in New Scientist, May 17, 1973. (8) , PATTERNS OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN THE UNITED STATES, Office of Science and Technology, Executive Office of the President, done by Stanford Research Institute, USGPO, Washington, 1972, Table l, p. 6. energy problem, is unfortunate and misleading. The point is made that the primary locus of the demand for energy is centered in the decisions made within family units, either directly or indirectly, an argument to be dealt with in more detail. When seen in this light, the "residential sector" has a much larger dimension than is implied by the "one-fifth" generally referred to. The probability of inefficient utilization of energy resources in household and peripheral uses, perhaps even waste, is assumed to be sub- stantial. This assumption, and the further assumption that utilization efficiencies can be materially improved, forms the basis of the present study. Business and industry have the inherent capability to rationalize energy use to a high degree by following management principles. Unfortun- ately, household activities are less amenable to effective management practices, practices which influence the other sectors as is argued in the above. Few would contend that the consumption of energy resources need not be rationalized at all levels, but it appears to be most critical at family level, with respect to the various impacts on the family unit. The energy problem is a complex one. Solutions will be sought in many ways. Categorized, there are these five options: (1) Develop basic energy resources not now being used. (2) Enlarge upon present sources of supply. (3) Increase efficiency of conversion and distribution. (4) Reduce consumption by means of social measures (meaning to reduce the standard of living). (5) Improve the efficiency of "end-use." 8 As already indicated, the present study will concentrate on option (5), limited to residential or household end-uses. To set the stage for an examination of energy uses by family units, and to create a data base, it is necessary to review several aspects of the energy situation in the United States. One is the nature of the demand, to be followed by a look at the price of energy. Then there are social forces which in turn are created by energy availability and energy technology, and which in turn are a part of social structure and have a role in social change. The price and supply outlook is related to evolving social change. And finally, the meaning of conservation needs to be clarified. Chapters II through VI are intended to provide this re- view. Chapter VII deals with energy utilization by family units and households. The second part of this study (Part B) proposes and describes a scheme for improving the decision-making processes in order to effect better utilization of energy resources. II. DEMAND FOR ENERGY There is no indication that any of the developments mentioned in the foregoing have had a slowing effect on demand. The term "demand" is used in a sense of "consumption over a period of time." What has happened, is, that there has been a shift from "dirtier" to “cleaner“ fuels, accelera- ting demand for and more rapid depletion of the latter. Nuclear energy has been held back because of cost, safety, and environmental-impact questions. More recent demand studies and projections fail to raise hopes that demand trends will change of their own accord. Generally, the more (9)00) recent projections Show increases over earlier forecasts. Some of the underlying reasons which tend to accelerate growth and demand may be the additional energy needed to clean up past pollution effects and to lower existing pollution levels, the growth in numbers of women in the work force resorting to time-and effort-saving gadgets at home, and the possibility that leisure-time activities are relatively energy-intensive. Examples of the last are: week-ending and vacationing away from home, off-the-road vehicles, power-boating, or simply more travel over greater distances. Modern society extensively uses energy to overcome distance, ( 9) SURVEY OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION PROJECTIONS, Committee on Interior and Insular Affairs, U.S. Senate, S.R. 45, Ser. 92-19, USGPO, Washington, 1972. (10) Also see: ENERGY "DEMAND" STUDIES, An Analysis and Appraisal, Committee on Interior and Insular Affairs, U.S. House of Representa- tives, USGPO, Washington, Sept. 1972. 10 and to save time and reduce manual work. When the time so freed is taken up with other activities, as it most often is, the addition to demand has a multiplier effect not yet quantified. The rate at which human effort and time have been replaced with non-human-energy operated equipment may have been excessively rapid, the consequences being mani- fest in some of the contemporary social problems, resource depletion, and ecological upset. What has been happening over the last 50 years is illustrated by Table 1. Of note is the acceleration in energy consumption during the 1960 decade, the fantastic increase in electricity consumption over the period, and finally, the trend reversal in energy consumption per dollar of GNP. For many years up to the mid-1960's, the energy required to pro— duce a dollar's worth of GNP had been declining. Since then it takes relatively more energy to produce the same dollar's worth of GNP. Future economic expansion and growth policies will need to take this trend into account. 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The quantitative evaluation of Equations (2) and (3) and the theo- retical foundation for relating the sensation of thermal comfort with skin temperature and sweat secretion are set out in the second part of this chapter. "By substituting conditions (2) and (3) in (l), the desired comfort equation takes the following form: fem-33, I/cl, t/a, t/mrt, p/a, v) = O (4) "Using the comfort equation (4), it is possible for any activity level (H/A/Du) and any clothing (I/cl) to calculate all combinations of air tem- perature (t/a), mean radiant temperature (t/mrt), air humidity (p/a) and relative air velocity (v) which will create optimal thermal comfort . . ." A somewhat different explanation of the thermal-comfort phenomena in physiological terms may be worthy of inclusion at this point: " . . The thermal needs of human beings stem principally from properties of their sensory nervous system. If, for instance, the average temperature of the skin Should deviate more than 3°C from the standard figure of 33°C, the nervous system would mildly, but definitely, protest. Another degree or two beyond would result in real discomfort or illness. Within this range of surface temper- atures, a person has a capacity for adjusting his heat production by internal regulatory control. The control mechanisms have apparently evolved in order to protect the brain and the internal organs from temperature variations, since they are now so elaborate and complex, that 1° to 2° deviation from the normal deep body temperature re- sults in noticeable loss of mental function."(77) (77) Richard L. Meier, SCIENCE AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT: New Patterns Of Living, MIT Press, Cambridge, Mass., 1956, p. 98. 79 Unfortunately, the foregoing touches primarily on physical aspects of thermal comfort. Psychological aspects are still more difficult. There is some knowledge which has been develOped over time, mostly because of considerations other than the subject of this thesis, i.e. availability and utilization of energy. Whether physical, physiological, or psycho- logical, the underlying principle is one Of satisfying human needs and responses to physical arrangements. Stated in another way, the following is taken from another book on the subject: " . . . the wellbeing of man depends upon the balance between his energy production and the exchange of energy with the environment. The energy balance must be maintained within the limits of toler- ance for heating and cooling the body. This concept is modified by the intervention of clothing . . .”(78) to which may be added: and/or by the intervention of shelter. Food is converted by the human body into energy for body-heat and for doing work. The heat must be dissipated into the environment, a physiological requirement which needs to be taken into account. " . the 2,000 to 4,000 calories which are consumed by a person over a day are in turn emitted by the body. These can be conserved so as to keep human beings comfortable, but to do so efficiently requires a great deal of scientific knowledge about human comfort and the properties of heat."(79) Research on thermal comfort is rather recent. A handful of papers appeared during the 1920's, more during the latter 1930's. Still more activity came with World War II and military operations all over the world, which prompted intensive investigations. Work done over the (78) H. L. Newburgh, ed., PHYSIOLOGY OF HEAT REGULATION AND THE SCIENCE OF COMFORT, Saunders, Philadelphia, 1949, p. 1. Note: This book, in addition to being a basic text, provides us with most detailed and comprehensive bibliography on the subject to the date of its publication. There are 477 references. (79) Meier, 92, 213., p. 97. Also: Mary Ellen Roach, DRESS, ADORNMENT AND THE SOCIAL ORDER, Wiley, New York, 1965, p. 204. 80 years at the United States Quartermasters' Laboratories at Natick, Mass. is notable in this respect. Also mentioned must be the continuing efforts by ASHRAE, the American Society of Heating, Refrigerating, and Air-Condi- tioning Engineers.(80) To increase the utilization-efficiency of energy for purposes of achieving environmental comfort, man can—-aside from improving energy- conversion methods--change (1) level of physical acitivity, (2) quantity and quality of nutrition, (3) clothing, and (4) buildings. Other options are omitted, because they offer only very long-term possibilities such as change in habitat or acclimatization. All of the four options are related to lifestyles, which of course, are subject to social change. Heat generated by the body increases with increased activity. Energy- heat values have been empirically determined for various activities under different atmospheric and environmental conditions. Thermodynamic be- havior of the physiological system is reasonably well-known. The relation- ship to energy consumption, however, needs yet to be established. In the light of energy-utilization economics, the most important option for achieving thermal comfort is clothing. This option has many trade-off advantages. Indeed, one has difficulty understanding why it has not been brought forward more strongly in discussion of the energy problem. Clothing is the most direct means of providing thermal comfort. There is (80) See the ASHRAE HANDBOOK OF FUNDAMENTALS published by the American Society of Heating, Refrigerating, and Air-Conditioning Engineers, New York. 1972, Chapter 7, PHYSIOLOGICAL PRINCIPLES, COMFORT AND HEALTH; pp. 119 through 150 eminently cover present knowledge of the thermal comfort and related phenomena in much more detail than is practical to do here. A two-mode model of man and his environ- ment is included (pp. 124-126). The ASHRAE Technical Committee, 1.4 Physiology and Human Environment, has charge of research and organization of the unfolding knowledge. 81 a technology available regarding natural and synthetic fibers, textile construction, and garment design. Weight can be light enough for the users to be comfortable in all kinds of activities, even under very cold climatic conditions. Europeans take advantage of clothing rather than fully relying on levels of indoor climate, as is the practice in the United States. Granted, some of the difficulty lies less with physical aspects than with how clothing is perceived and utilized by people, as in matters of fashion, for example. The trade-offs between comfort-control through buildings as against comfort derived from clothing deserves serious study. Whereas a great deal is known about the technology of clothing for more extreme climatic situations, the improvement of clothing to off-set modi- fied indoor-climate levels has been little researched. In most cultures, sufficient clothing is normally worn indoors and/or outdoors to permit the release of just enough heat that the skin tempera- ture remains within comfort range. The unit of insulation value for cloth- ing in general use is called a "Clo." One clo has been determined as necessary to maintain comfort in a normally ventilated room, with air- movement less than 10 ft/minute, at a temperature of 70° F in a relative humidity less than 50%, while the subject is resting in a sitting position. A clo, therefore, is a normalized unit of heat-transfer resistance (insula- tion). (8]) Insulation values of clothing ordinarily worn range from 5 clo (81) From Fanger, 9p, £15,, p. 30: Actually, the transfer of dry heat between the skin and the outer surface of the clothed body is quite complicated, involving internal convection and radiation processes in the intervening airspaces, and conduction through the cloth itself. To simplify calculations I/cl (see page 77) was invented as a dimensionless expression for the total thermal resistance from the skin to the outer surface of the clothed body. I/cl is defined by I (clo) = R8 1/0.18, where R total heat transfer registance from Cthe skin t8 the outer surfSte of the clothed body (m hr- C°/cal). One "tog," especially used in England, = 0.645 clo. 82 for bitterly cold weather to about 0.5 clo for midsummer. Anything higher than 5 C10 is usually too unwieldy for physical movement and comfort. Some researchers classify light clothing 0.5 clo, medium clothing 1.0 clo, and heavy clothing 1.5 clo.(82) Certain differences between individual pre- ferences naturally exist. The desire for more physical -- and psychological -- freedom has fostered trends to lighter clothing (fashionl). More work done by machinery, and lesser use of human energy, has tended to reduce internal heat produc- tion (H) of the human body and thereby changed the heat-balance equation. This development has been accompanied by a change in dietary requirements and diets. The heating, and more recently the cooling, of spaces rapidly pro- gressed during this century from concentration on limited activity areas to entire interiors of buildings and homes. Climate-controlled shopping malls are an example of how far this trend has been carried. Availability of cheap energy resources, together with development of utilization tech- nology, has encouraged this development. Moreover, " . . . there is sub- stantial evidence that in the United States the temperature criterion for thermal comfort has risen steadily from a range of 65 - 70° F (18 - 21° C) in 1900 to 75 - 78° F (24 - 26° C) in 1960." (83) Larger building- and living-spaces, maintained at higher temperatures, thereby leading to higher energy consumption, are tied to social change. As already indicated, the environmental variables which have first- order effects on man's thermal comfort are dry-bulb temperature (dbt), (82) Fanger, op, git,, pp. 44-47. (83) ASHRAE HANDBOOK OF FUNDAMENTALS, pp. 913., p. 138. 83 relative humidity (rh), mean radiant temperature (mrt), and relative air velocity (v)--p1us the change in these variables during the time of ex- posure in man's activity--and finally the thermal insulation of clothing (Icl)' The relationship of these variables to the state of thermal com- fort have been investigated by numbers of researchers. Still, there are information gaps. The ASHRAE Comfort Standard 55-66 defines thermal comfort as: " . . . that state of mind which expresses satisfaction with the thermal environment." But, " . . . Unfortunately, very little practical research has been reported to date that specifically answers this ASHRAE definition."(84) Most of the available predictive informa- tion is based on the KSU-ASHRAE Comfort Studies started in 1960 at Kansas State University. One outcome of these studies is contained in the ASHRAE Psychrometric Chart, now called the New ASHRAE Comfort Chart, Figure 5. (85) The KSU-ASHRAE "Comfort Envelope" is indicated by the elongated diamond. It is reported to represent a comfortable living environment (86) The for 90% of the living conditions of the sedentary individual. Effective Temperature lines ET representing loci of constant physiological strain are based on a rationally-derived model of physiological thermal (84) Ralph G. Nevins and A. Pharo Gagge, THE NEW ASHRAE COMFORT CHART, ASHRAE Journal, Vol. 14, No. 5, May 1972, p. 41. (85) Reproduced by permission of the American Society of Heating, Refrigerating and Air-Conditioning Engineers from the ASHRAE HAND- BOOK OF FUNDAMENTALS, 9p. §_1_t_., p. 137. (86) ASHRAE HANDBOOK OF FUNDAMENTALS, ibid., p. 138. 34 FIG. 5. THE NEW ASHRAE COMFORT CHART. [NTHAL'V __ mus mo uevmstmur VIMSACTIONS, 0” vat "ASVIJIIY x. __ once: [YAL,ASNRA£ museums, 2 55\\°” VOL 71.I97I,DIIT x. 032 .9 029 '/ 5° — _ — \ ///////z nun: contour STANDARD 55 u _ c'.’\ — \ \ 026 \ \~]\ - \ .034 Q n _ \ I \ / \K __ 50\ I \032 00a- \ __ \ \ \1 \\030 43\ \ - \\,oza ,— \‘ 3 §- 016 \ 9 g: \ 03°” <_ / \ E ‘°\\026 ‘1 you .01. ‘05. : \ h __. '19 on _ \ \l |\‘\ R" . _ 0.. . .3 ‘ \ \ :2 ”D «9.19 _ \oa .016 o o .. \ \n 169"} 3 . In: 35 \ /1$‘ / dwwéx E 0|° \ 9 0‘9 \ _ @331 :2: \\.ozz v‘ E \ \ .n' /\/a . \4 \20 ,0'7’4 \ .ooe \on .013\\ ‘55 \ : m\ \ XL : \ . ooa \ . \ \ \ \ i 10">< \\OIO '°'°\ 1 l W \ — ' r \ r r °°2 \ 15 i —‘ 75A so as so \ '5: 25\ ‘ llllllilllllllillilllllillllllll‘ \\°'6 15 20 25c so 35 \ \ I: 20 \ \ \ 01‘ 010 012 VAPOR PRESSURE IN “9‘ "O 1.3— I.2—‘ ~500 l |-< 1.0- —250 0.9-— 00- ~200 0.1— 6— 0 —ISO 05—— OG—I—IOO 03— 02—F—50 O l —. 85 regulation.(87)(88) The KSU-ASHRAE data "applied generally to altitudes from sea level to 7,000 ft. and to the most common special case for indoor thermal environ- ments in which mean radiant temperature is nearly equal to dry-bulb air temperature, and air velocity is less than 45 fpm. For this case, the thermal environment is well specified by the two variables shown: dry-bulb temperature and the humidity ratio.” The data are reported as useful for light clothing (0.5 - 0.7 C10) and for seated or sedentary activities, whereas the ASHRAE Comfort Standard 55-66 applies generally for average clothing (0.7 - 1.0 clo) and medium activity (Office work).(89) Man's metabolism continuously generates heat, which is given off into the environment in five ways: (1) radiation, (2) convection, (3) pure con- duction, (4) respiration, and (5) evaporation. Under certain climatic or environmental conditions, net heat-flow may be directed from the environ- ment to the body by means of (l), (2), (3) and (4). Thermal comfort, of course, depends on the detailed characteristics of these phenomena. The significance of radiation markedly rises with increases in the differen- tial in temperature between body and environment. If, on one hand, the (87) For a more detailed discussion of the subject see: (a) A.P. Gagge, J. A. J. Stolwigk, and Y. Nishi, AN EFFECTIVE TEM- PERATURE SCALE BASED ON A SIMPLE MODEL OF HUMAN PHYSIOLOGICAL REGULATORY RESPONSE, ASHRAE Transactions, Vol. 77, part 1, 1971, pp. 247-262. (88) ASHRAE Project RP-43, Thermal Comfort: (b) F. H. Rohles and R. G. Nevins, THE NATURE OF THERMAL COMFORT FOR SEDENTARY MAN, ASHRAE Transactions, Vol. 77, part 1, 1971, pp. 239-246. (c) T. E. MacNall and R. G. Nevins, A CRITIQUE OF ASHRAE COMFORT STANDARD 55-66, ASHRAE Journal, Vol. 10, No. 6, 1968, pp. 99-102. (89) ASHRAE HANDBOOK OF FUNDAMENTALS, 9p. git... pp. 138-139. 86 temperature of the environmental mass decreases, there will be increased radiation (heat-flow) from the body, ultimately enough to cause stress and then physiological harm. If, on the other hand, the temperature of environ- mental and climatic objects goes higher, say beyond the limits of the physiological norm for thermal comfort, then heat radiated to the human body from the environmental mass will rapidly cause stress and worse. Color can modify the intensity of radiation effects, especially short- wave radiation.(90) The acceptability of an indoor climate permits surprisingly little deviation from an accustomed norm. An air-temperature variation of about 5° F is about all that people will tolerate. Humidity, to which we seem to be less responsive, may vary between 20 and 60% rh without complaint, but higher and lower values become noticable, requiring temperature com- pensation if they are not to become Objectionable. Ambient air velocity must be under 40 ft/min. "Wind-chill" is a well-known sensation outdoors, but unpleasant "drafts" are experienced indoors. Air cleanliness and odors are difficult to define, yet must be controlled for a satisfactory indoor climate.(9]) The role Of the relative humidity factor is often misunderstood. TO further clarify: . . . it can be seen that the humidity influence for persons in thermal comfort is relatively moderate. A change from absolutely dry air (rh = 0%) to saturated air (rh = 100%) can be compensated for by a temperature decrease of about 1.5-3°C.“(92) (90) Fanger, 92, £13., p. 35. (91) Rogers, THERMAL DESIGN OF BUILDINGS, 9_p_. 91., p. 4. (92) Fanger, 92, 913,. p. 43. 87 Under environmental conditions when airconditioning is resorted to, it has long been known that air-dehumidification (at a lesser energy cost) can bring about a state of thermal comfort before air-cooling (at a rela- tively higher energy cost) is required for comfort. More data are needed in this area, however, such as the data available for heating situations. No condition can be found which everyone likes, although some discom- fort will be tolerated by nearly all people. Temperature ranges of accept- ability have been empirically determined between 68° F and 75°F at 50% rh. (93) The reference cited does not mention radiation (presumably, ta = tmrt) which would affect these temperatures. The Optimum acceptable effect- ive temperature (ET) varies between men and women, their culture, acclima- tization, difference in age (minimal), clothing, winter- and summer- seasons, and even geographic locations. The most popular range is from 66° ET in winter to a high of 73° ET in summer, dry-bulb air temperature 73° to 77° F, air movement about 25 ft/min.(94) The earlier part of this chapter has touched upon the source of bene- fits which can be obtained through use of better building insulation, bene- fits in terms of reducing heat loss or heat gain. Additionally, improved insulation has the effect of raising (lowering) wall-surface-temperatures in the case of heating (cooling), which in turn reduces (increases) radia- tion from the body to the wall. Lower (higher) ambient air temperatures can be maintained under these conditions with satisfactory thermal comfort. Said differently, improved insulation not only reduces heat-loss (gain), (93) Frederick H. Rohles, Jr., PSYCHOLOGICAL ASPECTS OF THERMAL COMFORT, ASHRAE Journal, Vol. 13, NO. 1, Jan. 1971, pp. 86-90. (94) Rogers, THERMAL DESIGN OF BUILDINGS, pp, 913 , p. 4. Author defines “Effective Temperature" (ET) as a set of conditions involving dbt, rh, and v. 88 but also permits lower (higher) thermostat settings, maintaining accept- able thermal comfort and achieving heat energy savings. Poor insulation can materially reduce the usefulness of living space. In houses with little or no insulation, at lower outdoor temperatures, say 20° F or below, the space at a distance of less than several feet from exterior walls may be uncomfortable. The same distance in a well-insulated house may be only a few inches. The principles surrounding insulation of buildings are well known, but useful data are not as readily available as might be. Therefore, energy savings thus possible have probably never been fully taken advantage of. Research in this area could be productive to establish the relation- ship Of human thermal comfort to surface temperatures of environmental ob- jects, walls, and ceilings under varied conditions. Again, the objective of such research would primarily be to achieve higher efficiency of energy utilization. The most creditable work to date, Rogers' THERMAL DESIGN OF BUILDINGS (1964) refers to the subject of surface temperatures by what he calls "com- fort yard-sticks." He points out that with the advent of building insula- tion, thermally-improved walls became known to be "comfortable": " . .by correlating these U- values with the indoor surface temperatures that resulted from their use, I came to the con- clusion that surface temperatures of 10° F or more below indoor air temperature could be considered in the discomfort zone, and that surface temperatures less than 5°F below indoor air tem- peratures could be classed as the adequate comfort zone. Although insufficient research has been done in this area to establish the actual relationship of human comfort to surface temperatures, this lO-degree yard stick seems to be generally accepted."(95) A schematic illustration of the problem is provided by Figure 6. Research should be undertaken in the area of humidity control. As (95) 1b1d.s p. 6. 89 Air-layers a, b, c, d = Temperature-gradient ranges m, n = Temperature differential needed for Optimum thermal comfort under I different wall-insulation conditions, primarily due to radiation effects. Fd <>= Low insulation value O= High insulation value Clothing Envelope \, Temperature ——> Heat-Transfer Radiation Convection Conduction Respiration Transpiration When surface temperature of wall _ TING equals body temperature, radiation 1S zero. I 1 Radiation -- in either direction -- - increases as the temperature //j:2322é; I I differential increases. Exterior Interior Figure 6. Schematic Diagram of Building-Insulation and Human-Body Heat Transfer. 90 already mentioned, the sensitivity of the human physiology to air-humidity variations appears to have a wide range of tolerance. Some questions are: precisely what is the relationship between dbt and rh when it comes to energy requirements for heating or cooling, what conditions would provide for optimum energy utilization efficiency, what are the trade-offs? The remarkable work relating clothing to thermal comfort(96) must be expanded to include non-human energy in the comfort equation. Or, stated in an- other way, why not use clothing first in arranging for thermal comfort be- fore resorting to energy resources for space conditioning, particularly energy resources of the non-renewable variety? It is, of course, understood that fibers, textiles, and clothing require energy to produce, distribute and maintain. An area which deserves attention is the question of night set-back during the heating season for sleeping under high-comfort conditions at lowest energy expenditure. One analog-computer simulation to determine maximum reduction in space-heating requirements and minimum loss of com- fort conditions suggests the possibility of average reduction in fuel con- sumption of 9% in colder temperature zones, and 15% in milder climates.(97) Further research and testing in living units is needed to expand the re- liability base of the data under various real-life conditions. (96) see Fanger, 92, £15., sub-section on Comfort Diagrams in section headed Comfort Equation, pp. 43-55. (97) Lorne W. Nelson, REDUCING FUEL CONSUMPTION WITH NIGHT SET-BACK IN ASHRAE Journal, Vol. 15 No. 8, August 1973, pp. 41-49. 91 In many cultures bedding, rather than extensive space heating, serves to achieve sleeping comfort. In the United States, electric-blanket sales are estimated for 1973 at about 5 million units. Growth in demand is 3 - 5% per year. Wattage ranges from 135 - 180 W. It 15 Of note that Electric blankets are generally used at off-peak hours. The sales argument is that ” . . . they allow a homeowner to lower the thermostat an extra 5 (98) If the thermostat is kept at degrees at night and save on fuel." the same setting and light bed-covering is utilized, however, the energy consumption is increased. Another area which has a shortage of information for American practice has to do with ventilation, either the normal air-in and air-out filtration and/or forced ventilation from the point of view of minimizing heat-energy consumption. Some of the criteria are often arbitrary or rule-of—thumb, such as 120 cfm for kitchen fans or 15 air changes per hour, or 50 cfm for 99) bathroom fans.( Heated air lost through unnecessary ventilation can (100), if the replacement air incur energy expenditures of .02 Btu/ft3/°F has to be heated. To illustrate, during the heating season, 120 cfm ex- hausted from a kitchen may represent one-tenth of the heat input into a kitchen. As more and better building insulation comes into use, and air movement between indoors and outdoors is restricted as a part of efforts (98) Paul Shook, General Manager of Consumer Products, CASCO Division, Sunbeam Corp., and John O'Grady, V.P. Fieldcrest Corp. in Investors Reader, November 1973. (99) see article in Lansing State Journal, April 4, 1973. (100) = the specific heat of air, from: J. J. Barton, ESTIMATING THE HEAT REQUIREMENTS FOR DOMESTIC BUILDINGS, Butterworth & CO., London, 1969, p. 5. 92 to reduce energy demand, it is Obvious that more attention will have to be given to the adequacy of air of healthful air-quality for the indoors. Attention given to clothing and bed-coverings would allow for more flexi- bility in this connection, but is also subject to further investigation. In sum, there exists a body Of knowledge on thermal comfort, but there is a scarcity of analysis and information which relates thermal comfort to energy consumption, energy-utilization efficiency, and energy conservation. A lack of focus on clothing and bed-coverings in this respect is especially . evident. This chapter up to this point has attempted to cover the more impor- tant aspects of the complex phenomena of thermal comfort, an understanding of which is essential for any assessment and evaluation of the related aspects of energy technology. For this purpose, development and use of the scheme suggested in Part B may help. c. Lighting, like thermal comfort, is labeled as an amenity, even though, some may argue that it is more nearly a life-support necessity. Lighting must produce sufficient radiant energy to be reflected from objects and allow adequate visibility; for " . . . Light is that form of energy which stimulates the eyes to sight."(101) Man, through time, has engaged in continuous effort to find ways to utilize hours of natural darkness by artificial illumination. The history parallels man's efforts to extend his own energy for performing work through exploitation of non-human energy resources. For centuries (101) w. R. Stevens, PRINCIPLES OF LIGHTING, Constable & CO., Ltd, London, 1951, p. 1. 93 lighting methods were primitive. Oil lamps were known as far back as 8000 B.C. Later on came tallow and candles. It was not until the end of the 17th century that lighting with coal-gas became known. It was a hundred years later, when coal—gas began to be piped into houses, before candles and oil lamps acquired competition. Gas-light then was nothing more than flames, yet a revolution in artificial lighting with profound impacts had begun: . . . The social and economic effects of gas can scarcely by exaggerated. Scoffing at those who claimed that sunlight was necessary for growth, Andrew Ure pronounced that children suffered no harm working twelve hours a day in mills lighted by gas. If gas must bear some of the responsibility for the intolerably long hours of labour in the early 19th century, it also gave the workman and his family a new life. For gas encouraged evening classes in the Mechanics' Institutes, and aided the new literacy and education. That people could con- gregate after their working hours in well-lit halls encouraged the processes of popular government. The social, industrial, and communal life Of the 19th century could not have developed as it did without gas-light." (102) Not long after the commercial introduction of gaslight (ca. 1800) came the beginning of electric lighting, initially by use of the electric arc, suitable for street lighting, but not for residential uses. There were improvements in gas-lighting devices, the atmospheric burner (ca. 1840), for example. Not until the last two decades of the 19th century, however, were there major lighting breakthroughs. These came with the incandescent electric filament-lamp (inventors Swan and Edison) and the incandescent gas mantle (Welsbach). Of note is that the latter came a few years after the former, presumably in response to the threat of competition. Still, with all this progress, even today more than half the world's population (102) Charles Singer gt 31., eds., A HISTORY OF TECHNOLOGY, Vol. IV, The Industrial Revolution, ca. 1750 to ca. 1850, Clarendon Press, Oxford, 1967 (1958), p. 274. 94 uses open flames for artificial illumination when natural light is absent.(]03) Artificial illumination under present technology is almost entirely derived from combustion, incandescence of solids, or electrical discharge with or without fluorescence, originating from three sources: (1) vegetable and animal fatty substances, (2) fossil fuels, and (3) electricity. From a physical point of view, illumination through the distribution of radiant energy is derived by conversion from electrical and chemcial forms of energy. How light is perceived is tied to the physiology of vision. Because of the complexities Of this physiology and the primary concern of this present study being energy utilization, details of the processes involved in seeing are omitted. The subject is adequately covered in the literature. (104'106) Precise quantitative information on current energy use for lighting is not available. As previously noted, residential and commercial electricity consumption for lighting is estimated to range from 15 to 30%. (107) Assume it is 25%,(108) then, on the average, one in seven electric power plants could be imagined to exist solely for residential and commer- cial lighting. But, here again, consumption data are not reliable. (103) , LIGHTING, Encyclopedia Britannica, 1972, Vol. 14, p. l. (104) R. G. Hopkins gt gl,, DAYLIGHTING, Wm. Heinemann Ltd, London 1966. (105) Yves Le Grand, LIGHT, COLOUR AND VISION, Second Edition, Chapman and Hall, Ltd, London 1968 (1948). (106) M. D. W. Pritchard, Environmental Physics: LIGHTING, American Elsevier Publishing CO., Inc., 1969. (107) Stein, SPOTLIGHT 0N ENERGY CRISIS, gp, git. (108) The 25% figure is from: Milton 0. Rubin, WASTE NOT, WANT NOT, Article in IEEE Sprectrum, Vol. 10, No. l, Janauary 1973, p. 68. 95 A popular assumption is that waste occurs in lighting. The President of the Illuminating Engineering Society (IES), makes this point in a letter to "members of the lighting community", when he says: . we have spelled out in our practices what constitutes good current practice, and since so much lighting is not good, do we not stand for elimination of waste in using electric energy? . . . IES accepts the challenge of developing the new technology that will be needed. We also accept the responsibility for the massive education job that has to be done." This letter reviewed the history of lighting engineering development and progress to the point where: " . . . we are facing a new set of prior- ities in terms of wise use of resources."(]09) On examination of the subject, questioning overall energy expenditures required in support of contemporary lighting practices, a number of issues are brought to the surface. Some of these are: (1) natural vs. artifical lighting, (2) functional vs. ornamental or decorative lighting (including advertising, merchandise display, etc), (3) present standards for lighting, (4) lighting for safety and security, and (5) thermodynamics and conver- sion inefficiencies of lighting equipment. Energy expenditures which can be assessed to natural lighting are probably negligible. These are incurred by heat-loss (-gain) through fenestration, and in the production chain of window-glass, shades, awnings and the like. Artificial lighting obviously consumes energy during all times when such lighting is used. Light sources generally have limited life, and replacement of these sources involves additional energy expendi- tures. (109) Robert T. Dorsey, in a letter published in LIGHTING, DESIGN AND APPLICATION, Vol. 3, No. 3, March 1973, p. 52. 96 As relatively cheap lighting and light sources became available, more and more arguments in favor of displacing natural light by "stable and con- troll able" artificial lighting were heard. Buildings have been designed and arranged to function in this manner. The lighting business interests have much to gain by this philosophy. (110) As early as l930, one author, then connected with the lighting industry, wrote: (llO) . as civilization advances . . . the construction of the artificial world make man more and more of an indoor being, . . 'indoorsness' of living and working . . . Openings to admit daylight became standard practice. " " . . . architecture and indoor world are suffering from the daylighting habit." " . . congested cities, valuable ground and floor areas are wasted to admit inadequate and uncertain daylight. Wall-space is consumed by windows. Architecture is being handicapped by the window and skylight habit. Set-backs in building ordinances cause losses . . . . age of modern, controllable and relatively inexpensive artificial light." " . . . ordinary glass does not transmit health-maintaining radiant energy . . ."(lll) Artificial lighting has grown into an important industry, as indicated by the following: * Growth of Total Lighting Equipment Annual Sales Volume Year in Millions of Dollars l947 422 54 634 58 765 63 l,ll6 67 l,542 70) l,800 75) ** 2,400 80) 3,200 * All types of lighting equipment; manufacturer's selling prices, current dollars, fob plants. ** Estimate based on current economic and construction forecast. Source: Bureau of the Census, Census of Manufactures, MC-36C and Industrial Reports MA-366 (lll) M. Luckiesh, ARTIFICIAL SUNLIGHT, Van Nostrand, New York, l930, pp. 7 and 8. 97 The author then went on to say that new data are needed to support his arguments. Data or no data, artificial light has in fact replaced daylight in many uses. A strong argument, apparently based on lack of evidence to the contrary, is that no harm to sight and general well-being could re- sult from working and living with artificial lighting, and hence, natural light is unnecessary. Looking at the other side of the coin, others recently posed this question: . . it is not unreasonable to ask that the argument should be put the other way, and to demand evidence to show that any gain in vision or health results from working in a controlled man- made environment, and in particular to show whether there are any advantages in working in a continuous artificial lighting as compared to natural lighting.“(]12) Decorative and ornamental lighting as an energy consumer has to be assessed for its justification from several points of view: energy avail- ability, economic impact, alternatives to creating esthetic effects by lighting, effects by lighting, effects on the environment, and social justice (seer Part B, explaining the suggested use of technology assessment for this purpose). If in fact such artificial lighting should deprive someone of light for working, as a consequence of energy short- ages, a reallocation of resources would surely be called for. Justifi- cation of advertising and merchandise display lighting needs to be re- viewed in a similar manner. A good case can perhaps be made for lighting to provide adequately for the safety and security of the people in mass society; but again, the (ll2) R. J. Hopkinson and J. 0. Kay, THE LIGHTING 0F BUILDINGS, Praeger, New York, l969, p. 68. 98 resolution of this matter is not obvious and it should be systematically assessed. In another area, the precise relationship between productivity and lighting conditions has never been fully established in the industrial and commercial sectors, much less with regard to the residential sector. Present American lighting standards are those of the Illuminating Engineering Society (IES), which obviously represents the lighting- equipment industry. These standards specify values of "footcandles on the visual task,“ and were established as a result of studies by H. R. Blackwell at the University of Michigan during the l950's. He developed a new quantitative method for determining adequacy of interior illumination levels under varying brightness contrasts and times. Blackwell recognized in his report that it would be necessary to verify his findings to prove its ulti- mate reliability as a basis for determining illumination levels for actual situations. The IES adopted the Blackwell data as a standard, nevertheless and published his findings in the 3rd Edition of the IES Lighting Handbook (henceforth referred to as the IES Handbook).(1]3) Although a 4th and a 5th Edition of the Handbook have since appeared, the standards have re- mained unchanged. The standards have been subject to critical comment. For example, although favoring architectural lighting and claiming the illumination of buildings to be more the province of the architect rather than the engineer, one architect-author points to the American lighting standards as being too high and not oriented to actual seeing and visual comfort needs.(]]4) (llB) John E. Kaufman, ed., IES LIGHTING HANDBOOK, The Standard Lighting Guide, 5th Edition, Illuminating Engineering Society, New York, l972. (ll4) Leslie Larson, LIGHTING AND ITS DESIGN, Whitney Library of Design, New York, l964. 99 More recently, another architect has been outspoken with respect to what he terms a waste of energy in American lighting practice, and is moreover critical of the entire architects' profession for being contribu- tors to energy waste.(]15) There are a number of conditions for which higher illumination levels might be justified. If these levels were adopted universally, they would result in over-illumination. To illustrate, allowance has to be made for the fact, that older persons need more light: . as people grow older their eyes gradually change, and the lens becomes less elastic. At the age of 40 there is a definite change in this direction. Corrective glasses and high-level lighting help older people."(ll6) New standards need to take this factor into account. Standards, specifically for residential lighting, were issued by the IES in l953 as a result of a study.(]]7) Lighting levels recommended by these standards were substantially raised in the 3rd Edition of the IES Handbook as a part of the revisions already described. In actual ex- perience, general illumination levels in the United States have risen rapidly through the years and are projected to go even higher by a member of the lighting industry; see Table l7 which follows. (115) Stein, SPOTLIGHT ON ENERGY CRISIS, gp. gj§., and unpublished remarks by Mr. Stein under the heading of The Optimization of Lighting Energy, at an IES Symposium in New York, November 28, 1972. (ll6) Helen J. Van Zante, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT PRINCIPLES, Prentice Hall, Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey, l964. (ll7) , RECOMMENDED PRACTICE FOR RESIDENCE LIGHTING, prepared by the Committee on Residence Lighting of the IES, in August l953 issue of Illuminating Engineering. lOO TABLE I7. LIGHTING LEVEL IN THE UNITED STATES, YEARS l9OO - 2000. Year Egotcandles l900 3 l0 5 20 l0 3O 20 40 35 50 50 58 85 65 l00 with promotion 7l l25 l980) * l75 200 2000) 250 300 * Estimate by Cooper (see below), who believes that there is "economic" justification for the projected values. Source: Berlon C. Cooper, A STATISTICAL LOOK AT THE FUTURE OF LIGHTING, Article in Lighting Design & Application, Vol. l, No. l, July l97l, p. 18. The question is, how high is enough? European and Australian accepted lighting levels are much lower than those in the United States.(]]8) These lower levels are usually explained on grounds of economics, cul- tural, and social differences. Now that the energy-resource problem is recognized as important, the time has come to re-examine lighting in terms of its energy demand. The relatively poor utilization efficiency in the conversion of basic energy resources applied to lighting, given present technology and under the best of conditions, is such that for every addi— tional unit of effective lighting, on the order of l6 to 50 additional basic energy units need to be supplied. (‘13) Larson, op, git,, p. 22 (gives lighting levels for the U.S., Great Britain, France, Germany, Sweden, Finland, Belguim, Switzerland and Australia). lOl It is this multiplier effect which deserves serious attention in the management of the problem. A great deal of knowledge is available. The impressive number of available texts and the information on the subject of lighting and vision are witness to the argument that better performance is to be expected, especially in the design and arrangement of residential lighting. Lighting as a subject has only had marginal attention by the education establishment, and even then the real energy costs involved have been passed over.(]19) Aside from the massive trends to artificial lighting already dis- cussed, there has been relatively narrow corresponding technological progress during the more recent decades. Edison's first incandescent l00 W light had an efficacy of l.4 lumens per watt (Lm/W). By l900 it had ad- vanced to 4.0 Lm/W. Inventions through about the l920's (Whitney, Coolidge, Langmuir, Steinmetz and others) raised the efficacy to nearly where it is now, l7 Lm/W. Fluorescent lights in l940, relatively new then, had an effi- cacy of 40 Lm/W; now the efficacy is in the 50 - 60 Lm/W range. Better lighting performance can be obtained up to about ll0 Lm/W with commercially-available mercury or sodium high-pressure vapor lamps, but they are unacceptable because of the color of the light. They are more- over economically impractical for residential uses. The main problem is conversion of electrical or chemical energy into radiant energy. Even after the energy is in radiant form, there is the (ll9) In the view of Dr. Robert Summitt, Chairman, Department of Metallurgy, Mechanics and Materials Science, Engineering College, Michigan State University, East Lansing. Dr. Summitt is an expert on light and color, and is currently developing materials for a course in lighting oriented to undergraduate students in Human Ecology and Engineering. Dr. Summitt has had a long-time interest in teaching in the field of his particular expertise. l02 problem of great differences in lighting effectiveness of the wave- lengths (color) in the visible spectrum. That is, efficacy varies with the color of light. Theoretical Optimum of lighting efficacy has been established at 675 Lm/W at 595 nm. But this wavelength is that of yellow- green light at a particular wave-length, and is not acceptable for artifi- cial lighting of the human environment and its objects; nor is the tech- nology available for economical application. Inherent in this question is the problem of physiological reaction to radiant energy. What contributes to the energy-inefficiencies of incandescent lamps is that much of its radiant energy output is outside the visible spectrum. Filament temperature determines the wave-length distribution. The incandes- cents are strong in red, but deficient in blue, because their temperature is relatively low. To produce more near-white light by increasing the temperature reduces lamp-life -- under present technology. We have there- fore a compromise between life time and efficacy -- aside from economic considerations. Operating on 60-Hertz current, a 40—W lamp loses l3% of its lighting efficacy owing to cycle-flicker. This loss decreases as wattage is increased. A SOD-W lamp loses only 2% on this account. As indicated, fluorescent lighting shows better efficacy, on the order of 3 to 1 over incandescents. The life of fluorescents exceeds that of incandescents by a factor of l0. Economic cost of fluorescents is higher. The question of use in residential applications would be a study by itself, and is hereby recommended. It would be a candidate for a tech- nology assessment. Accelerated use of mercury (in fluorescents) would have to be carefully weighed. Fixtures and fixture arrangements have a great deal to do with effi- ciency. For example, ceiling-suspended fixtures are more energy-economical l03 than recessed troffers.(120) The latter may require less cleaning and maintenance, however. The essence of the problem is one of maximizing uses of daylight, improving on the artificial-lighting technology and physical lighting arrangements, including devices. A number of ideas have been suggested for study, such as zone lighting, automatic switching, and most importantly, study of the human factors involved: what is in fact needed, and what is acceptable? One would normally expect the IES to be aggressively instrumental in establishing policy directed at finding solutions to the problem of energy demand for lighting. In l972 the IES issued a statement outlining the society's recommendations for better utilization of energy expenditures. The twelve points in the statement are:(]21) (l) Design lighting for expected activities (seeing tasks, with less light in surrounding non-working areas) (2) Design with more effective luminaires and fenestration (use systems analysis based on life cycle) (3) Use efficient light sources (higher lumen/watt output) (4) Use more efficient luminaires (5) Use thermal-control luminaires (6) Use lighter finish on ceilings, walls, floors, and furnishings (7) Use efficient incandescent lamps (l20) , ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND DESIGN PRACTICES, from the Lighting Design and Application Forum, in Lighting Design and Application, Vol. 2, No. 8, August l972, p. 26 on. (lZl) in L D & A, ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND DESIGN PRACTICES, 92, gig. l04 (8) Turn off lights when not used (9) Control window brightness (l0) Utilize daylight as practicable (ll) Keep lighting equipment clean and in good working condition (l2) Post instructions covering operation and maintenance." Examination of these points of recommendation discloses deficiencies, or at least questions. To begin with, it is unfortunate that the recom- mendations are not quantified in terms of possiblities for reduction in energy consumption. They are directed to industrial, municipal, and institutional users who would normally look for cost/benefit information. Whether the recommendations would have any worthwhile impact upon residen- tial energy consumption for lighting is a question for research. Nor is there mention of R & D, of developing new or better devices, of methods and practices, in general, of the development of the technology. There are some aspects of lighting which have been ignored by the IES recommendations. One, applicable to residential situations, is decorative or ornamental lighting, indoors and outdoors, already mentioned earlier. Amounts of energy consumed for this purpose are unknown, as are effective alternatives and means for the reduction of such consumption. The situation is no different from that in other areas of residential energy use, namely, little information is available which can be used di- rectly for a point-by-point evaluation. An assessment of each point of recommendation, along with an evaluation of alternatives and means for attainment appears to be necessary. Such information is required to sup- port more rational decisions leading to improvement in energy-utilization efficiency. One can visualize it as a large task by itself, therefore, in lieu of a detailed specific assessment and evaluation, a brief discussion lOS of the recommendations in the light of the above will have to suffice. (l) (2) "Design lighting for expected activity . . ." These recommendations on the part of the IES are nothing new. There is a wide gap between what is recommended and what is practiced. The reason for this disparity should be researched with both energy and economic cost as a basis, i.e. total cost of lighting systems, the sum of owning and operating charges, as related to a set of lighting standards which consider limitations on energy availability as a fact, and also consider environmental costs. "Design with more effective luminaires and fenestration . . ." The first objective of any lighting plan should be to maximize utili- zation of daylight. Careful planning of activities tailored to avail- able daylight would be included (various daylight-saving time sched- ules). Luminaires, or lighting fixtures as they are referred to in residential uses, should take care of requirements which daylight under the best of conditions cannot fulfill. The effectiveness of lighting fixtures for residential uses is at present ill defined, if not well understood. This subject is in need of inquiry. Efficacy standards for lighting fixtures should be developed. "Use efficient light sources . . .” In residential uses, given present technology, this recommendation implies greater use of fluorescent light. Incandescent lights now dominate residential lighting where the stock of existing installa- tions is exceedingly large. Prevailing attitudes and conflicts need to be studied and resolved. Again, there is need for standards. “Use more efficient luminaires" If "lighting fixtures" can be included in "luminaires," the use of (5) 106 more efficient lighting apparatus depends on the availability of information regarding efficiency. Standards as suggested under (3) above are required in order to facilitate consumer education. To illustrate, every householder might have access to a light-level meter and so learn how to do a more efficient lighting job. "Use thermal-control luminaires" This recommendation would apply almost exclusively to large-scale lighting installations. It is based on the technical fact that fluorescent lights are most efficient at certain temperature levels, and therefore call for thermal control. "Use lighter finish on ceilings, walls, floors and furnishings." This recommendation concerns one of the larger factors in residential energy consumption for lighting. It requires knowledge of light, color, vision, and other factors. Mainly, implementation is a task for education. One authority believes that it is possible to reduce energy consumption for lighting by l0% through proper use of environ- mental materials, colors, and finishes. (122) "Use efficient incandescent lamps" Incandescent lamps by their nature are inefficient light sources. What appears as useful light in the form of radiant energy is only about 2% of the basic energy resource which went into the electric generating plant. The life of an incandescent bulb is limited to less than l000 hours, roughly one-tenth the life of a fluorescent lamp. Given present technology, higher efficiency means higher tem- perature and hence shorter life. There is little flexibility in this respect. The weight of effort hence has to be directed toward how (l22) from Dr. Summitt, log, git, (8) (9) (10) lO7 incandescent lamps are used. Using fluorescent light whenever pos- sible is to be preferred from an energy-consumption point of view, since fluorescents are on the order of three times more efficient than incandescents. "Turn off lights when not needed" In the United States, wherever families live, this admonition has a familiar ring. Approach to the problem appears to lie in (a) con- sumer education, at all levels, formal and informal; (b) incentives and/or disincentives; and (c) technology, timers and automatic switching devices which sense need for light, including proximity switches, dimming devices, and the like. "Control window brightness" One of the big problems with daylight illumination is how to use it to illuminate a task or activity adequately and comfortably. Often, glare is a problem, particularly on or near the side of a building facing the sun. Glare or highlighting contrasts can cause discomfort or even stress. A body of knowledge exists on the subject. As day- light is stressed in the interest of reducing energy consumption for lighting, more attention to what is known is called for. Again, this call points to education. Beyond that, more research and experimen- tation is needed. "Utilize daylight as practicable" Since the rapid adoption of fluorescent lighting in buildings in the l930's, we find that architects, designers, and builders have tended to more and more rely on artificial lighting. Parts of the rationale for this trend were mentioned earlier in this section. Space arrange- ments have increasingly become dependent upon artificial lighting. (ll) (12) l08 Present space configurations are obviously difficult to change. The entire question needs to be re-studied for better alternatives which must be assessed in terms of their potential impact. If there is a future for solar energy, lighting provides us with an ideal application. "Keep lighting equipment clean and in good working condition" The IES Handbook gives six causes for light-loss: (123) a. Temperature, voltage, and ballast performance; b. Aging of luminaire finish and material; c. Accumulation of dirt on room surfaces; d. Burned-out lamps not replaced; e. Lamp lumen depreciation; and f. Luminaire dirt depreciation. Data on these factors contributing to lighting inefficiencies are available in manufacturers' specifications and the IES Handbook, where one can find information on Lamp Lumen Depreciation,(]24) (l25) Luminaire Dirt Depreciation, and more. Some of the effects are minor, but persistent. "Post instructions . . ." would be more applicable to multi—unit residences and the like. Study for possible effectiveness might well disclose marginal opportunities. Residential lighting practices are difficult to circumscribe in terms of their energy use, and particularly in terms of utilization efficiency. What may be considered inefficient use or waste by some, may be a peroga- tive for others. Another reason is the great multitude of lighting uses. In themselves the uses are relatively small, and often are so viewed. (123) (l24) (125) IES Handbook 92,513,, p. l0-l2. ibid., p. 9-16. ibid., p. 9-l7. 109 Few people realize the magnitude of the aggregate basic resource require- ment to take care of the energy demand for lighting. Adding to the problem is the now heavily built-in bias toward artificial lighting the present-day residential environment. Practices are embedded in culture, lifestyles and personal habits, therefore difficult to change, at least over the short haul. Few would argue that there are no opportunities or alternatives for improving utilization efficiencies, or, in the terminology of the lighting engineers, efficacies. To assess the alternatives, as well as the means for achieving them, would be a study by itself. There is need for a profile of all energy uses for residential lighting in order to make an assessment and evaluation aimed at the wise use of energy resources allocated to light- ing. The continuously increasing demand for artificial lighting on one hand, and the rising lighting levels on the other, make detailed study of the trend imperative. The impact of these trends has never been researched to the point where information is adequate for the development of rational policies. d. Leisure and Recreation. As explained in earlier chapters, many forces have combined to accelerate the replacement of human effort and time by inanimate forms of energy. At the same time, such energy forms have been increasingly used to provide for amenities, if not pleasure. Manifestation of this development can readily be seen when looking over the data--presented in earlier chapters--which show the accelerating demand over recent decades. One frequently overlooked factor in the demand aggregation is that the per- sonal time made available through the substitution of energy for time is llO often spent in leisure and recreation activities which add to the energy demand. The very fact of displacement of human toil by energy has built into it opportunities to use more energy. Technology generally provides these Opportunities. The sport of hot-air ballooning may serve as an illustration. It uses up leisure time, plus 5 to lO million Btu of heat energy per hour of flight, plus additional amounts for materials and re- lated transportation. Unfortunately, no data appear to be available which quantify the above argument. That many recreation-and leisure-time activities are energy intensive can only be presumed. One need to think only of recrea- tion vehicles, snowmobiles, powerboats, autoracing, ski lifts, maintenance of more than one home for week-end purposes, and so on. In the home one finds powered entertainment paraphernalia, workshops, and provision for physical activities such as swimming pools. There are electric organs and music amplifiers. Transportation to a golf course takes energy, and so do the golfcarts. Energy consumption by home entertainment apparatus is given in Table 18. TABLE TEL. HOME ENTERTAINMENT, ESTIMATED ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION. Average Estimated Annual Wattage Use in kWh Television, black and white 237 362 color 332* 502 Radio phonograph l09 l09 * Consolidated Edison in New York places this average at 420 Watts. Source: Estimates by the Edison Electric Institute l969. lll There have been technical advances which have materially reduced energy consumption in home-electronics, for instance, displacement of vacuum tubes by solid-state devices. A TV receiver with vacuum tubes might be rated at 350 watts input, whereas a comparable receiver with tran- sistors, diodes, integrated circuits, and other solid-state devices may be rated 175 watts. The solid-state receiver has the further advantage of in- creased service life and therefore offers a further reduction in overall energy costs. Hence, technology serves to reduce energy demand through in- creased utilization efficiency. On the other hand, a recent innovation, the "instant-on" television set, continuously draws electric current, whether the set is on or not. The cost Of the electric energy for the feature is $lO/year at 3¢/kWh, an estimated total of 333 kWh/year. This reduces the time between switch-on and picture appearance from l/2 minute to l0 seconds.(126) Swimming pools are large consumers of energy. There are approximately 3/4 million private pools in the United States, with new installations being added at the rate of 70,000/year. The average size of l6‘ x 32' consumes an estimated 400 kWh/year electricity, plus lOO million Btu/ year, mostly gas, for pool water heating.(]27) Shelter-unit heat losses could probably be utilized for this purpose. Home workshops are equipped with a vast array of powertools and equipment. NO information on the energy consumption by these devices appears to have been assembled by anyone. The case is the same with (l26) , Color Television, in Consumer Reports, Vol. 38, No. l, January l973, p. 8. (127) , SWIMMING POOLS, CHANGING TIMES, Vol. 27, No. 4, April 1973, pp. 45 - 47. llZ out-door equipment, such as power lawnmowers, sweepers, clippers, and snow-blowers. What this discussion points up is that single-family suburban living may be much more energy-intensive than higher-density apartment living. Although high-density settlements may rationalize at-home energy consumption, the resulting living patterns may well tend to accelerate away-from-home activities associated with leisure and rec- reation, activities contributing to energy demand. These phenomena, to the best of the scantily available information, have never been studied. Such study might also explain the turn-around in the long-term trend of the energy/GNP consumption relationship.. As mentioned in Chapter II, starting about with the mid-l960's, increasing (l28) One amounts of energy seem to be needed to support growth in GNP. can only suspect that energy is in part used for activities which con— tribute little to economic growth. It could mean, in effect, dispropor- tionately high social costs when measured against economic benefits to society. The individual activities should be Subjected to rigorous technology assessment. (l28) , ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND GNP, 99, git , Figure 1, The Energy/GNP Ratio, 1947 - 1970. 113 2. HOME EQUIPMENT Home equipment -- including the facilities for indoor-climate control--lighting, home entertainment, grounds care, and residential pe- ripheral transportation account for almost the entire energy consumption in the residential sector, and much of it in the other sectors. For it is within the structure of the family-unit that many of the consumption decisions are made, decisions which affect the other sectors. By con- sumption, in this instance, we mean the consumption of goods and services in addition to the direct residential consumption of energy. Two of the most important elements which control direct energy consumption are: (l) the state of technology that is engineered and built into the equipment that uses energy in the various forms, and (2) the level of knowledge and con- cern with respect to use-practices, care, and maintenance of the equip- ment. Non-human energy-powered devices and automatic heating and cooling equipment in the home are essentially a 20th-century development. Tech— nical advances have been rapid, and the now existing stocks are exceed- (129) ingly large. It is not uncommon for a home to contain over fifty household appliances. (129) Approximately: 300 x l03 major applicances (annual sales 30 x l06 gnits) 32 x l06 room airconditioners (annual sales65 x 10)un1ts) 65 x 10 water heaters (annual sales 5 x 10 unitS) Unknown stocks of lawnmowers, snowghrowers, garden tractors, etc. (annual sales? x 10 units) ) ) ) ) ) 45 x 106 central heating installations ll x 106 individual water systems 8 x l06 central airconditioners (included in heating above) ** * from Merchandising Week, February 26, l973. ** from l970 Census Data. 114 The energy-utilization efficiency of the equipment has been a criterion which over time has been afforded scant attention in the devel- opment and use of these devices, as mentioned elsewhere in this study. That first cost, rather than energy-operating cost, or life-cycle-cost, has recently been the most significant criterion, has also been touched upon; that social costs, especially environment costs, associated with energy utilization have not normally been a part of the cost calculus; and that prospects, Of diminishing availability, of rapidly-rising energy prices, in relative and absolute terms, or even shortages, are changing the priorities, and lending emphasis to need for utilization efficiency and the conservation of energy resources. These concepts can be Observed as being on the way of becoming key ingredients of unfolding American energy policy. Home equipment and energy consuming devices around the home are not a new field of study. Knowledge accumulated over decades of equipment development and use is vast and important. Placed into the context of the United States national energy problem, there is at least one critical shortfall in this knowledge. Energy-availability and energy-use impli- cations have generally been omitted. This observation is not to take away from, or to discredit, the work that has been done. What must be faced now, however, is that the prevailing assumption of unlimited availability of cheap energy is faulty. Adding on the environ- mental damage inflicted by and associated with energy use makes a strong argument for massive change. Such change entrains major social impacts affecting and affected by how energy resources are deployed in residential and family-unit activities. "Home economics" as a discipline will be materially altered by the new demands expressing energy-resource 115 availability and implications of energy use as a new dimension. Past efforts directed toward savings in human effort and time will be cast in a different light. Studies of these phenomena will result in better understanding, if not innovation. In a search for higher effi- ciency levels, one should view residential activities and home-equipment devices in the context of the residential unit (or system). For example, nearly every indoor residential energy use affects the performance of a climate-control system, not only in technical terms, but also in social or human effect. Analysis may be aided by the assessment scheme suggested in Part B. One logical outcome Of a rigorous assessment of residential energy uses and use-practices is a replacement of home-equipment texts developed and published over the years.(]30) The authors were obviously aware of the underlying natural science and engineering principles. Abundant energy availability at relatively cheap costs was taken for granted, how- ever, and environmental-impact costs were not considered. Now that the scarcity threshold for energy resources has been crossed, this fact needs (130) A partial listing: (a) Louise J. Peet, with co-authors, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT, 6th Edition; John Wiley & Sons, New York 1970 (first published in 1934 . (b) Betty Jane Johnston, EQUIPMENT FOR MODERN LIVING, MacMillan & Co., New York, l965. (c) Helen .1. Van Zante, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT PRINCIPLES, 9_p_. gj_t_. (d) Florence Ehrenkranz and Lydia Inman, EQUIPMENT IN THE HOME, Harper Brothers, New York, l958. (e) Elizabeth Beveridge, CHOOSING AND USING HOME EQUIPMENT, Iowa State University Press, Ames, Iowa, l97l (first published in 1952). ll6 to be incorporated as a new dimension into the texts and writings dealing with home equipment. A move in this direction necessitates a broader back- ground in chemistry and physics, engineering, and a number of other disci- plines. A joint effort for Home Economics and Engineering appears appro- priate. The growing technical compexities of home equipment make it mandatory that practitioners in the field -- which would naturally include all home- makers -- be somehow supplied with sufficient science and technology infor- mation to cope with energy-related problems. Need for such background has been recognized for some time. One author published a text purposely di- ’ rected toward mitigating the deficiencies. In addition to the subjects already mentioned, the book covers construction and finishes of home appli- (131) But it does not come to grips with the ances, utensils, and so on. broad aspects of the energy problem. Apparently the only full-sized text with physics as a discipline involved in home equipment was originally published in 1938 and is now outdated.(]32) There have been a number of “equipment guides“ for homemakers. The theme woven through these guides is one of "saving energy," that is, the homemakers' energy and her time. What the authors of the writings on home equipment meant by efficiency is significant: ". . .Efficient use Of equip- ment includes the correct selection, arrangement, operation, and care of appliances, so that the homemaker may accomplish the maximum amount of "(]33), where- work with the minimum of effort in the shortest possible time as energy costs are marginally referred to in the texts and then only in an (l3l) Louise J. Peet, SCIENCE FUNDAMENTALS: A Background In Household Equipment, Iowa State University Press, Ames, Iowa, l972. (l32) Madalyn Avery, HOUSEHOLD PHYSICS, A Textbook For College Students In Home Economics, MacMillan, New York, l946 (first published in l938). (133) Peet, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT, 92, £13,, Preface. ll7 economic sense. None of them mention equipment for the care of residential grounds, such equipment in recent times has become a substantial energy con- sumer. In what follows, parameters of energy utilization for home equipment will be considered under these headings: Indoor Climate Control Water Kitchen Appliances Home Laundry and Fabrics Care Miscellaneous Devices Parameters fall into four groups, viz., those limited by (l) energy form, (2) the equipment package, (3) the equipment installed and operated, and (4) the comprehensive area of consumer or user, economics, lifestyle, level of knowledge and resulting use practices, including operation, care, and maintenance of the equipment. Groups (l), (2) and (3) are primarily energy-resource and technological in nature, whereas group (4) is the human part of the man-machine relationship. It is these relationships which apply to all home equipment powered by non-human energy. Choice of energy form (l) is dictated by availability, economics, and market influences. Often the consumer either has no choice or his know- ledge is inadequate. a. Indoor Climate Control is generally achieved by equipment for control of heating and cooling, humidity, dust, and odor. Roughly two-thirds of the residential energy consumption can be so accounted for.(]34) (134) PATTERNS OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION, 9p. _c_1'_t_., p. 6. 118 The l970 Census enumerated heating equipment and heating fuels as Shown in Table l9 below. TABLE 19. RESIDENTIAL HEATING EQUIPMENT AND HEATING FUELS 1970. Heating_§guipment Steam or hot water 13.8 x l06 units Warm air 28.8 Built-in electric 3.5 Floor, wall, or pipeless 5.9 Room heaters with flue 7.9 Room heaters without flue 3.9 Fireplaces, stoves, and portable heaters 3.3 None 0.6 All housing units 67.7 Heatinnguel Gas 35.0 x 106 units Fuel oil etc. l6.5 Coal or coke 1.8 Wood 0.8 Electricity 4.9 Bottled gas 3.8 Other fuel ' 0.3 None 0.4 Occupied housing units 63.5 Source: Census of l970, U.S. Summary HC (l) - Bl, Detailed Housing Characteristics, Table 23, p. l-248 and Table 24, p. l-254. 119 Airconditioning was reported by the l970 Census as shown in Table 20 below. TABLE 20. RESIDENTIAL AIRCONDITIONING 1970. Room units one 12.0 x l06 units * two or more 4.9 * Central 7.3 Housing units with airconditioning 24.2 Source: Census of l970, U.S. Summary, HC (l) - Bl, Detailed Housing Characteristics, Table 23, p. l-248. * Merchandising Week, Feb. 26, l973, p. 30 gives the number of room airconditioners in use during l972 as 3l.4 million units. The above gives an overview Of the variety of equipment and fuels utilized. There are no satisfactory data available on energy-utilization performance of the equipment as a part of individual comfort-conditioning systems, primarily because these systems are made up of more than the piece of equipment and the fuel as components. A gas-or oil-fired furnace, for example, will have a specified name- plate input and output. Optimum values for conversion of fuel into heat are known quantities which do permit evaluation of the equipment by itself. The requirements for "complete combustion" can be found in handbooks and texts, as can be for "stoichiometric combustion" where scientifically pre— (135) The theoretical ultimate is never achieved cise data is required. in actual practice. Standards giving practical design targets as well as theoretical ones do not generally exist. (l35) ' , ASHRAE GUIDE AND DATA BOOK, American Society of Heating, Refrigeration and Airconditioning Engineers, New York, l968, p. 206 as an illustration. 120 To keep first cost of the equipment competitively low in line with mass-production and distribution objectives, many trade-Offs are made which compromise utilization efficiency. Compromises are also resorted to in order for the equipment to be made adaptable to many field conditions, rates of use, and variations in fuel characteristics. Safety rules are another factor which tends to lower efficiencies. The state of the art limits any maximum design demand. Once installed and in operation, moreover, the equipment becomes a component in the comfort-conditioning system of residential units. Numerous factors enter the efficiency equation, some of which need to be separately and individually determined for each installation. To illustrate: size, direction and location of flue-pipe to chimney, type of draft-diverter or hood, practices of the occupants of the unit, affect the utilization effi- ciency of the energy supply. Maintenance may materially affect it. There is a wide latitude of choice among commercially available equip- ment. Any such piece of equipment may be considered a relatively efficient energy-into-heat-converter when tested in the laboratory. Performance of the equipment, once a part of a functioning and operating system, is quite another matter. Information is scarce inasmuch as tests are rarely made which result in comprehensive operational conversion-efficiency data for an installation over time. Some method of certification should be developed which will give information regarding efficiency of actual use. Moreover, instrumentation might be provided which permits monitoring of performance. Manufacturer's performance specifications, generally available, are verified and certified by institutions which have been organized by the industries to serve that purpose. For example, airconditioning equipment. and heatpumps are so certified by the Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration 121 Institute. Certain test routines, having been agreed to by industry mem- bers, are conducted in the laboratories of the manufacturers or, in some cases, by independent laboratories. Test data are filed with the Institute and are so certified and published. The information can be used for com- paring performance efficiency among different makes and models. The Ameri- can Gas Association (AGA) does the same for gas-burning equipment, and in a somewhat different manner Underwriters Laboratories certify oilburners. It is important to remember that data so made available come from labora- tory tests of selected models. The data do not tell how much more effi- cient the equipment could be made, given different sets of conditions; still less can one tell much about ultimate fuel efficiency when in operation. The variety of equipment available on the market is well described in various types of publications. Texts on home equipment have sections covering the subject. Practically nothing, however, is said of operating (136) costs in terms of energy consumption. Books devoted to the subject cover the many parts of the system, but neglect in their entirety energy consumption and utilization efficiency.(]37) Typically, new heating equipment efficiencies for gas and oil are specified by manufacturers at about 80%. The 20% loss Obviously repre- sents heat loss into the environment. Actual installed operating per- formance is estimated at considerably less. As already pointed out, information on the actual performance of the (136) See texts referred to in Ref. (130): Peet, Johnston, Van Zante, etc. (137) Joseph B. Oliviere, HOW TO DESIGN HEATING-COOLING COMFORT SYSTEMS, Business News Publishing Company, Birmingham, Mich. (1970). Author's note: This reference is one example out of a large number of publications on the subject. 122 installed residential indoor-climate control equipment is not readily available. Variations among individual installations and practices of residential occupants confound the problem. Some utility companies, though on a relatively small scale, have developed usage data for gas com- pared with Oil, and gas with electricity, i.e., ratios of the utilization efficiencies.(]38) From these data and other in publications and statements, the approxi- mate range Of residential utilization efficiency for heating equipment appears to be as shown in Table 21. TABLE 21. APPARENT EFFICIENCY RANGES OF HEATING EQUIPMENT. Coal (Bituminous) 45 - 60% Oil 55 - 65 Gas 60 - 75 Electric 95 - 100 Sources: (a) In a study ELECTRIC SPACE CONDITIONING IN NEW YORK STATE, Depart- ment of Public Service, 1971, a range of 60% to 70% for gas and oil, and a figure of 100% for electric heat were taken and a rationale therefore was given, p. III-5. (b) AGA Monthly, February 1973, p. 9, places utilization efficiency for gas at 60%. (c) PATTERNS OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION, pp, 915,, Table 5, p. 18 lists these estimated efficiencies: coal 55%, gas 75%, Oil 63%, electric 95%. (d) Note: It is assumed that electricity required to operate stokers, circulating fans, oilburner motors, and controls, is included in these percentage ranges. (e) Note: For electric the "ultimate" efficiency may be as low as 28%. (138) , Gas Engineers Handbook, Chapter 22, Fuel Comparisons, The Industrial Press, New York 1965, p. 12/341. 123 These estimated ranges suggest that utilization efficiency in fossil- fuel space heating can be improved, with attendant improvement in environ- mental and resource impacts. Such improvements can be made by eliminating the "standing pilot" flames on gas furnaces(]39) -- responsible for up to perhaps 10% of all space-heating gas consumption, -- increase in size and performance of heat exchangers, installation of barometric draft controls, better control of primary and secondary air to the burners (furnishing this air directly from an outdoor source), heat recovery from the flue gases, and chimney design and location. Overall efficiency targets for Oil and gas of 80%, or even higher, need to be investigated and tested. Overall efficiency comprises (1) efficiency of combustion, (2) efficiency of heat transfer (to air, water and other), and (3) efficiency of the distribution system (beyond the heating-unit itself). A study of modulating the heat output of burners to adjust the heat distribution to follow demand as against the present customary on-off operation should be made to obtain cost/benefit data. No such information appears to be available. One Of the material and generally unrecognized limitations on improv- ing space-heating efficiency by reducing heat-loss through insulation and air-sealing of structures, is the air required by occupants, fossil-fuel (139) Gas consumption of "standing pilots" is a problem of most gas burn- ing house equipment. It applies to heating furnaces, airconditioners, clothes dryers, waterheaters, cooking ranges, and incinerators. Note that most gas dryers do use electric ignition, which does away with the standing pilots. Clothes dryers have to be hooked up to an electricity source anyway, as do furnaces. With pilots, furnaces take 3 to 7 cubic feet of gas per hour, waterheaters 2 to 5 cubic feet. Not infrequently more than one pilot-flame is used. Gas ranges Often have three pilots. To reduce the number of service calls due to "snuff-outs," the gas utilities have encouraged larger flames. It has served to increase revenues and at the same time has reduced service calls. 124 combustion devices, clothes dryers, and other ventilation-requiring devices. Until recently, natural air infiltration into built living spaces could be counted upon to provide the fresh—air supply for these purposes. This mechanism may no longer be adequate with improvments in construction, in- sulation, and vapor-sealing methods and materials--all efforts to reduce energy consumption. Provision will have to be made for supplying suffic- ient amounts of outside air in a controlled manner, for maximum comfort and health, and minimum heat-loss (or heat-gain). The combustion of one cubic foot of gas takes roughly 9 cubic feet Of air. When taken from heated living space, this air to some extent entrains an energy loss. The specific heat of air is about .02, which means that .02 Btu/ft3/° F of temperature differential is the energy content of air subject to such loss. The obvious solution is purposely to supply the proper amounts of make-up air required for combustion, if necessary, di- rectly from the outside. Man's physiological air requirements are about 18 ft3/hr (ordinary adult in sedentary occupation). The air expelled in breathing contains 2 to 3% 002. For health reasons it should be diluted to near the CO2 level Of atmospheric air, normally equal to .03% C02. Dilution so required would be about 10 : 1; therefore the fresh air needed is something like 180 ft3/hr/adult person when engaged in sedentary occupation. 60 ft3/hr/ adult person is generally regarded as a minimum. When engaged in heavy work or physical exercise, the fresh air requirement may range as high as 1000 ft3/hr. Another factor, namely moisture exhaled into the air, may have to be taken into account. This water vapor amounts to about 2 oz/hr/ person, to which must be added the evaporated perspiration from the 125 surface of the body or its covering clothing.(140) The air supply problem is simplified with electric heat. No combus- tion air needs to be introduced. In this case, however, the ultimate energy efficiency may be as low as 28%.(141) Improvement in electric-heating overall performance, can come only by better performance in the generation and distribution of electricity, or by improving consumption by use of heatpumps. Moreover, the efficiency of the heatpump depends on its state of technology and on the heat source (or sink), e.g., the climate which affects the level of available atmos- pheric heat in the case of air-tO-air systems. To illustrate, for New York city the heatpump may save about 60% of the electric energy over electric resistance heat, and in Buffalo or Albany, New York, perhaps 50%.(‘42) In warmer climates, or with earth- or water- heat sources, the ultimate efficiency may equal or be greater than that of fossil fuels. 7 Heatpumps are naturally affected by the same efficiency problems met in present-day room airconditioners, where a wide range of efficiences is found. The heat removal may vary from about 5 Btu/hr/watt to about 12 Btu/ (143). hr/watt At least 10 Btu/hr/watt could be considered for adoption as a minimum standard. Unit Size, weight and first-cost may have to suffer (140) Neville S. Billington, BUILDING PHYSICS: HEAT, Pergamon Press, Oxford, 1967, p. 191. (141) Assumes 27.8% efficiency (for 1970) of generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity. From CONSERVATION OF ENERGY, National Fuels And Energy Policy Study, 99, £15,, p. 35. (142) ibid., p. 36. (143) ibid., p. 38. ”— 126 a small increase5144) For design purposes, maps are available which give climatic data for the North American continent, as well as other parts of the world. For the United States, these maps indicate “outdoor design temperatures" by isothermal zones, or, in a similar manner, "degree days."(]45) This infor- mation aids the architect, engineer, and designer of a structure. More comprehensive data can be found in the ASHRAE Handbook under "Weather Data and Design Conditions.” Here such data are given for over 1000 stations in the United States, Canada, and 102 other countries--over 800 of them in the United States and Canada alone. It covers dry-bulb and wet-bulb tem- peratures, summer and winter maxima and minima, wind and percent probabil- ity targets.(]46) The efficiency of heat pumps, when atmospheric air is the heat-source, is in a large part determined by these data. Compressors operated as heat pumps must be carefully engineered for the highest possible efficiency at the low outdoor temperatures encountered in northern climates. This precaution is to overcome a well-known problem. The capacity of a heatpump falls off as outdoor temperatures go down when atmospheric air is the heat source. Electric resistance heat makes up for deficiencies. Under these conditions the rotary vane-type compressor has (144) With outside air 95% ", inside air (from evaporator) 40° F, 10° to 20° F loss each in evaporator and condenser, motor efficiency of 80%, compressor efficiency about the same, subcooling the liquid and suction lines, one could reasonably expect a performance factor of around 10.5/hr/watt input. (145) Tyler Stewart Rogers, INSULATED BUILDINGS FOR VARIOUS CLIMATES, 92, £13,, p. 14. (146) , HANDBOOK OF FUNDAMENTALS, American Society of Heating, Refrigeration and Airconditioning Engineers, New York, 1968 (1967), Chapter 22, pp. 371-391. 127 a relatively higher efficiency than the piston-type compressor. Most of the refrigerator-service compressors currently used are piston-type. For econom- ic reasons, these piston compressors have generally been adapted to heatpump service. What is needed are heatpump system designs which meet requirements Of energy utilization efficiency without the crude compromises of simple adaptation. Heatpump systems are generally chosen for airconditioning when cooling is called for. The only premium capital costs involved are those for the valving-mechanisms and the controls for reversing flow of refrigerant or air. These devices have in the past been subject to problems of reliability and service, which have discouraged the use of heatpump systems. Even in the American south, where room airconditioners have been used as heatpumps or vice versa, the units have more recently been sold equipped with electric re- sistance heaters, thusly avoiding service risks. This strategy again is a compromise apparently not in the best interest of energy economy, nor of economic operating cost to the user. In another area related to energy efficiency, most present-day compres- sors in domestic use are 2-pole, and run at a little under 3600 revolutions per minute, on 60 cycles per second current. Up to about 1960 the general practice was to use motors Operating at 4-pole speed. The change was made to reduce cost, size, and weight. Electric energy consumption went up by roughly 5%. This practice needs to be re-assessed in the light of energy- scarcity conditions. i In connection with suggested solutions to the energy problem, there (147) have recently appeared studies which attempt to show that many room (147) J. C. Moyers, ROOM AIRCONDITIONERS: EFFICIENCY AND ECONOMICS, in ELECTRICAL ENERGY AND ITS ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT, Progress Report December 31, 1972, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, ORNL-NSF-EP-40, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, March 1973, pp. 14-19. 128 airconditioners could be more efficient in terms of heat transfer measured in Btu per watt of energy input. This solution is not so simple as repre- sented, in that airconditioners can be made much more energy-efficient "aircoolers" by raising evaporator temperatures and increasing heat-transfer surface areas. This change would reduce moisture removal from the air, which in airconditioning practice is Often more important than reducing air temperature in order to achieve acceptable comfort levels. Optimum results in this respect are achieved by keeping evaporator temperatures just above frosting or icing. This practice limits the energy input vs. heat transfer parameter as indicated in footnote (144). The relationship of air humidity to physical comfort has been men- tioned. Thermal comfort, in part, depends on the human body's metabolism and resulting heat-dissipation requirements. Under low air humidity con- ditions, humidification devices can enhance this process, and so permit lower heating temperatures by several degree F (dbt), and thus reduce heat energy requirements. The ASHRAE Comfort ChartlFigure 5, page 841i11us- trates this phenomenon. Dehumidification has similar inverse effects when atmospheric humidity conditions are high. No data were found which speci- fically relates these differential factors to specified quantities of pos- sible reduction in energy consumption. The situation appears to be similar to that already described for the need for research on body-radiation heat— loss to walls (in the section on Thermal Comfort). Water taken from the air in the dehumidification process of airconditioning can improve conden- ser efficiency by evaporating the water on the condenser surfaces and so benefiting from the effects of evaporative cooling. It is known that con- denser efficiencies can be so improved by between 5 and 8%. Many models of room airconditioners do take some advantage of this process. This 129 Opportunity for an efficiency gain is lost for most central aircondition- ing installations where the evaporator is indoors and the condenser is out- doors. Water vapor condensed on the evaporator is generally wasted. Be- cause Of the growth in central airconditioning installations, this point also merits study. As can be noted from census statistics, residential heating by electricity has been gaining. It had its beginning with portable and usually supplementary heaters. Growth accelerated as cheap electric energy became available in areas where electricity was generated on a large scale from hydropower, such as in the Tennessee Valley, the Colorado River Basin, and the Pacific Northwest. Theoretically, electric heat derived from hydropower can be considered efficient in terms of ultimate basic energy-resource utilization. Quite the opposite is the case when electric- ity is generated from the combustion of fossil fuel. In actual practice, most of the hydropower generated in the United States goes into grids which are also supplied from fossil or nuclear power. Then electric heat- ing must be looked upon essentially as supplied from these sources. Elec- tric heating also achieved impetus in some areas supplied from fossil- fuel-burning power systems, where costs had been rationalized through large and highly efficient generating machinery. Here, electric heating was en- couraged by a low step in blockrates, about l¢/kWh. For more background on this matter, see the discussion of hydropower and electricity in Chapter V. A few factors favor residential electric heating. Nuclear energy obviously can only be used for residential heating in the form of electric- ity, or by means of district heating. With fossil fuel, the emission of pollutants can be more readily controlled, economically and technically, 130 at large central stations. Such stations are at the same time more effic- ient in the conversion process. Gas, and also oil, must be viewed as basic energy resources in scarce supply. Given present technology, hydro, nuclear, and coal are the princi- pal resources which can be relied upon for the generation of electric power. Coal can no longer be considered practical for individual residential heat- ing because Of air-pollution. Domestic availability of oil and gas is diminishing. Gas is the superior home-heating fuel, but the supply question can not be easily circumvented. Gas derived from the gasification of coal will no doubt be used to greater extent in the future, but its future cost relation- ship to electric heating is unknown. Oil does not have a large advantage over electric heating, when all related factors are taken into account. A recent study(]48) concludes that electrically-heated homes require about the same amount of total fossil fuel as oil-heated homes. At the same time, utilities use residual Oil, whereas most residential Oilheating equipment require No. l and No. 2 heating oil, which compete in the refining process with a series of other petro-chemical products. Further, oil-fired space heating also has adverse environmental effects much greater than fossil-fuel stack-emission from electric generating plants.(]49) From the point Of view of social acceptance, electric heating has an advantage also. It is an "elegant" fuel. The idea of "all-electric" residences is a persuasive one. The problem is one of making the "all- electric" residence into an "energy-efficient all-electric residence." Portable electric heaters evidently exist in large numbers. Degree of saturation is unknown. No data on their use have ever been assembled. Total (143) National Research Associates, Washington, D. C. (149) Environmental Research and Technology. Inc., Lexington, Mass. 131 sales in 1972 were 2,925,000 units.(]50) The energy-utilization efficiency of these heaters in their respective uses should be investigated. Other energy—consuming devices which serve the purpose of indoor- climate control are humidifiers, dehumidifiers, and fans. An estimate of respective energy consumption is shown in Table 22. TABLE 22. ESTIMATED ENERGY CONSUMPTION, HUMIDIFIERS, DEHUMIDIFIERS, AND FANS. Average Estimated use Wattage kWh annual Humidifier 257 377 Dehumidifier 117 163 Attic fans 370 291 Source: Edison Electric Institute Estimate 1969. Adoption of these devices depends on geographic location, prevailing climate, and other factors related to shelter- and thermal-comfort factors. The efficiences are assumed to vary, and need be dealt with as a part of the indoor-climate control system. There is little energy-statistical in- formation on these devices or on their uses. Sales in 1972 were humidi- fiers 1,150,000, dehumidifiers 566,400; fans of all types 9,850,000.(15]) An alternative to heating individual residential units or unit groups such as found with apartments and condominiums is district heating. This is not a new idea in that district heating has been used for a long time in the United States and Europe. Constraints are heat loss in transmission, range, and economics. Advantages are that higher utilization efficiencies can be achieved at the point Of conversion of energy resources into heat, and that it is possible to control better the emission of pollutants. (150) 1973 Statistical Marketing Report, Merchandising Week, September 26, 1973. (151) 1_b_i_d. 132 Economic pollution-control would make the use of coal or nuclear energy feasible. Use of low-grade heat in the condensate from the turbines of steam-power plants is Often mentioned in this connection. One extensive study shows, however, that this practice can have only long-range merit when planning "energy-centers" for new cities.(]52) b. Water ranks next to indoor-climate control as a consumer of residential energy. Except perhaps for the energy needed to heat water, the public gen- erally views water as a "free good." Yet, in reality, this stance is at variance with fact. In the modern home energy is necessary to transport water to the point of actual use. Disposal of sewage and effluent through a municipal system consumes energy. Greater re-use of water would likely take still more energy. Per-capita water consumption in the United States has tripled since 1900.(]53) Moreover, as municipal water-supply infra- structures become older, more energy is needed because of increase in friction due to corrosion and mineral deposits in the piping network. Large amounts of energy are consumed in the construction and maintenance of municipal systems. Residential consumption has increased with higher standards of (152) H. R. Payne et_al,, USE OF STEAM-ELECTRIC POWER PLANTS TO PROVIDE THERMAL ENERGY T0 URBAN AREAS, Oak Ridge National Laboratory ORNL - HUD - 14, January 1971. (153) Jim Wright, THE COMING WATER FAMINE, Coward-McCann, New York, 1966, p. 219. 133 (154) cleanliness, sanitation, comfort, and pleasure. In 1970 a United States Geological Survey Report estimates an average water-use of 166 gallons/day/person as drawn from public supplies. A study in 1963-65 of 41 residential areas of the United States shows a mean annual household- (155) One author observes that almost one-half of the 156) use of 398 gallons. total may be used only to flush away wastes. ( Substantial amounts of water are used in some areas for lawn-sprink- ling, which accounts for as much as 75% of total water-use during dry hot weather.(]57) Lawn-sprinkling has been encouraged in municipal water-rate structures, and may have become excessive. Energy consumption by swimming pools has already been mentioned elsewhere in this study; to this must be added the energy required to pump water to the pool Sites when such water originates from a municipal system. In draining a pool thru municipal sewers, more pumping energy may be required. Rates generally seem to have had little impact on the growth of water consumption. Water use is considered complementary to other household activities. Consumption is a function of consumers' ability and willing- ness to purchase and use such household goods as baths, sinks, showers, garden space, home laundry equipment, dishwashers, garbage disposals, and (154) Anne E. Field, A STUDY OF WATER CONSUMPTION PRACTICES IN HOUSEHOLDS, Unpublished doctoral dissertation, Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan, 1973. (155) F. P. Linaweaver, Jr. §t_al,, A STUDY OF RESIDENTIAL WATER USE, Federal Housing Administration, Washington, D. C., USGPO 1967, pp. A-2 and A—3. (156) Sigurd Grava, URBAN PLANNING ASPECTS OF WATER POLLUTION CONTROL, New York, Columbia University Press, 1967, p. 32. (157) Jerome B. Wolff, PEAK DEMAND IN RESIDENTIAL AREAS, in Journal of American Water Works Association LIII, October 1961. 134 so on. This willingness is in turn a function of socio-economic status, and naturally of family size. As children grow older, water use tends to ( increase. 158) As with energy-use, once a habit is acquired, the resulting water consumption becomes a "built-in" factor difficult to change, probably not within the lifetime of the device. NO ready-made data exist which tells energy cost of water provision and effluent disposal. An illustration may be of value then. In Lansing, Michigan, energy cost to pump water from the wells through the distribution network is approximately 3 kWh/1000 gallons, and the corresponding effluent disposal cost is about 2 kWh/1000 gallons.(]59) These figures do not in- clude water treatment, nor do they include energy costs associated with construction and maintenance of the infra structure. These energy costs imply that average family use of water constitutes energy consumption on the order Of two kWh of energy-equivalent per day. The 1970 Census lists 55 million housing units connected to municipal or corporate water systems, and 48 million units connected to public sewers. Translated, this practice could mean that roughly 1% of national energy consumption goes into munici- pal water supply and sewage handling from residential use.(]60) The 1% is not included in residential consumption data cited in this study. Individ- ual private systems, of which the 1970 Census enumerated about 11 million units (out of a total of 67 million units), do have much smaller energy (158) Field, 29.311. (159) Information from the Superintendents of the Water & Light and the Sewage Disposal Plants, Lansing, Michigan, May 1973. (150) 50,000,000 housing units x 5 kWh/day (using Lansing, Michigan experience) x 365 days : .5 (efficiency factor, .3 for electric, however, some energy used is fossil fuel) x 3,413 Btu/kWh = .62 x 1015 Btu (national total in 1970 = 67 x 1015 Btu). This is an approx- imation. 135 expenditures than the above. These systems are included in the residen- tial totals cited. What can readily be seen is that water consumption in the United States has departed far from the basic water needs of roughly one gallon per day per capita, and in this way has added to the energy demand. lkn;water, in the context of water consumption, is, of course, a major household user of energy, estimated at 2.9 percent of the national total (1.735 x 10‘5 Btu).(]6]) On that basis, and assuming the energy is to raise water-temperature by 100°F, and further assuming a composite con- version efficiency of 70 percent, hot-water use would be about 21 gallons per day on a per—capita basis. This is at variance with information used by home economists: " . . . the average family of four persons uses up to 1200 gallons of hot water per month, or about 10 gallons per day.” This same reference lists hot—water needs as shown in Table 23. TABLE 23. RESIDENTIAL HOT-WATER NEEDS. Hot-Water Needs Gallon/day Automatic washer (full cycle) 25 Tub bath 10 Shower 5 Dishwashing (manual) 6 - 8 Dishwashing (machine)/per normal cycle 12 - l6 Meal preparation, clean—up 4 - 6 Housecleaning 5 - 10 Source: Helen J. Van Zante, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT PRINCIPLES, Prentice- Hall, Englewood Cliffs, N.J., 1964, p. 153. Consumer Reports, November 1971, p. 662. (161) PATTERNS OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION, 9p. £15., p. 6. 136 The growing use of mechanical dishwashers is accelerating the demand for hot water in the household. As can be seen from the above data, hot water use is doubled in going from manual to machine-dishwashing. Not only that, water for machine dishwashing is hotter by perhaps 50° F.(]62) The large residential uses of hot water present several problems of efficiency. Namely, conversion of energy into heated water, prevention Of heat-losses from heater-storage and from the piping network to the point of use. One study looked into water-heating systems and also examined an attic water-preheater arrangement. Relating capital costs to current energy costs, in the case of electric water heaters, Shows that even at the pres- ent 2.2¢/kWh national average, additional heater insulation is justified, (163) and more so with prospects of rising electric rates. Attic-pre-heating and pipe insulation were reported to have break-even points higher than current-electricity rates could economically support. No data on gas-and oil—water-heaters, presumed to be in the 60 to 70% conversion-efficiency range, are available. Pre-heaters, which take the heat from combustion gases and other houshold functions, need to be investigated. There are three times as many fossil-fueled water-heaters in use as there are elec- tric heaters. Name plates and sales literature on fossil-fueled water-heaters for residential uses generally carry only an input rating in Btu/hr. Output is not given, and therefore utilization efficiency is unknown to the buyer. Substantial improvement appears possible, although it most likely will (162) Consumer Reports, November 1971, p. 662. (163) R. 5. Quinn and J. C. Moyers, WATER HEATING STUDY, in Electrical Energy And Its Environmental Impact. 92, 913., p. 24 - 31. 137 have to be considered, taking future fuel costs into account. Solar heat, wind power, and recovery of heat-output from other residential use are often-mentioned possibilities as candidates for evaluation in terms of longer-range overall energy costs. The relatively large per-capita United States uses of water -- and especially hot water, -- are a cultural phenomena, and therefore difficult to change in the near term. The fact of energy-availability limitations rarely plays a conscious role in the mind of the water user. As with other energy uses, these uses of hot water were encouraged under a philosophy of cheap and abundant energy, as well as by the availability of devices mar- keted under a lowest first-cost calculus. Life-cycle costing, taking all costs into account, should help toward better energy-utilization practices which improve efficiencies. More study Of the subject should be encouraged. c. Kitchen Appliances are also major energy consumers. There are three factors which command attention. One is the contribution of kitchen appliances to the growth in energy demand. Next, because most kitchen appliances are electric, basic energy resource consumption is at least three times that of the energy actually delivered to the appliances; the loss occurs in conversion and distribution. Last, starting with this One— third, there is the problem of operating efficiency as built into the appliances as well as the efficiency associated with use-practices. The result is a multiplier effect on the demand for the basic energy resources. A breakdown of growth in electricity consumption from 1800 kWh to 7000 kWh per household during the period from 1950 to 1970 shows that refrigerators accounted for 19% Of the growth, food freezers 7%, and 138 cooking 5%.(164) It should be noted that the more recent phenomenal growth in the use of automatic dishwashers does not yet appear in such analysis. The first part of this section is concerned with refrigerators and which -- unlike most other appliances —- generally are time-continuous sources of energy demand freezers. The second part covers domestic cooking, and the third part looks at dishwashers. Electricity consumption by refrigerators and freezers is shown in Table 24. Unfortunately, aside from such estimates, no comprehensive national data of this sort are being collected by an organization. In fact, from an energy-consumption point of view, little is known about how appli- ances are used. Name-plates generally do not give such information, nor does the sales literature. One of President Nixon's energy messages to (165) Congress suggested "energy efficiency" labels. This is thought of as a voluntary effort on the part of the industry, is associations, and TABLE 24. ESTIMATED ENERGY CONSUMPTION, REFRIGERATORS AND FREEZERS. Average Wattagg_ Annual kWh foodfreezers (15 ftg) 341 1,195 foodfreezers (15 ft 3 frostless) 440 1,761 refrigerators (12 ft3) 241 728 refrigerators (12 ft3, frostless) 321 1,217 refrigerators (l4 ft3) 326 1,137 refrigerators (14 ft , frostless) 615 1,829 Source: Estimate by the Edison Electric Institute 1969. The above wattage ratings are given by the EEI as approximate, and the annual kWh consumption figures are estimates. Unfortunately, no compre- hensive national data of this sort are being collected by an organization. (154) J. E. Tansil, RESIDENTIAL CONSUMPTION OF ELECTRICITY 1950-1970, in Electrical Energy And Its Environmental Impact, 92,.git.. pp. 45-50. (165) Richard M. Nixon, in a Message to the Congress of the United States, April 18, 1973. 139 (166) coordinated by the U. S. Department of Commerce. The National Bureau Of Standards has been active in implementing the program, expanded to cover all major home-equipment. It comes in two parts, (1) information on labels, and (2) education. The latter phase is recognized as the more difficult and more important.(]67) Unfortunately, results from the effort cannot be expected for many years because of the mass of existing stocks of home equipment. Refrigerators and freezers do more than store perisable foods. They provide the convenience and economy Of rationalizing procurement, they pro- vide ice and the chilling foods and drinks, they aid meal preparation, they store leftovers and medicines. Average size of refrigerator compartments have become larger over the years. More growth has occurred in the size of frozen-food compartments. Growth in size, along with the addition of features like automatic defrost and icecube making, has tended to increase energy consumption. A refrigerator of the 1930's may have consumed 400 kWh of electricity per year (8 ft3), four times that much may be consumed by today's average refrigerator (l4 ft3). Higher ambient temperatures during the heating season add to the energy-consumption problem. These increases in energy consumption are not so much due to the energy cost of Operating refrigerating systems as they are to the (155) , Procedures for a Voluntary Labeling Program for Household Appliances and Equipment to Effect Energy Conservation, U. S. Department of Commerce, Office of the Secretary, Title 15, Sub- title A, Part 9, Federal Register, Vol. 38, NO. 206, October 26, 1973. (167) From a conversation with the man in charge of the labeling program, Melvin R. Meyerson, National Bureau of Standards, November 8, 1973. 140 peripheral features. Heaters to prevent sweating, heaters to defrost the evaporator, heaters which permit release of icecubes from molds of automatic cubemakers, fans for internal air circulation and condenser cooling, are energy-consuming devices which have been added over time, -- in addition to increased storage space, notably for frozen foods. The "frostfree" feature for both refrigeration and frozen-food storage com- partments imposes energy cost for defrosting. The defrost operation is most Often time-clock operated, and is so cycled that the most severe ambient conditions can be met. This mode results frequently in unnecessary operation of the defrost heaters. The use of one evaporator for both re- frigerated storage (35° F) and frozen food storage (0° F) adds to the problem of energy consumption. Forced air circulation in the cabinet interior creates technical difficulties for door sealing, and heat-conduction in the door—opening cross-sectional area. Remedial measures are the addition of resistance heaters to maintain an exterior surface temperature high enough to pre- vent sweating. Placement Of condenser units and compressors underneath the cabinet, mostly done for esthetic reasons, creates efficiency problems for the refrigeration system. For a highly efficient system the tempera- ture differential across evaporator and condenser should be as small as possible. The other side of the argument says that the heat is necessary to evaporate water drained from the evaporator coil when defrosting. The industry has always used better insulating materials when they became available: but to reduce cabinet wall thickness, rather than to reduce energy consumption. Reduced cabinet-wall thickness made it feasible to enlarge food-storage space at the same time that external physical size of cabinets was maintained. The net effect of course was increased energy 141 consumption. Usage associated with family life-style and life-cycle has also added to energy consumption. Price trends of appliances have tended down for many years, a fact already touched upon in Chapter III. Refrigerator and freezer prices have followed this trend, although it is difficult to be specific with comparisons because of technical changes, quality improvement, and the many added features. These developments can be illustrated more precisely in a shorter time-frame. For example, consider the 1967 Consumer Price Index=100, and the December 1972 index figure for all items was 127.7, whereas the 1972 index for refrigerator-freezers was 108.4.(168) Use practices are generally not consistent with energy economy. In- discriminate use of ice may be an illustration. The theoretical energy cost to make ice at 32° F is 144 Btu/lb. Any waste of ice is a correspond- ing waste of energy. Few realize this to be the case and that, at the power plant, it takes three times that much in basic energy resources for the production of electric energy. Chilling of beverages to temperature levels lower than actually needed, storing materials which need not be refrigerated and are perhaps damaged by it, some fruits and vegetables for example, are practices of questionable use. The compartment air in a frostfree refrigerator-freezer has a very low dewpoint, and is apt to dam- age most vegetable matter that is not carefully and completely covered to protect it from direct exposure to this dry air. Unfortunately, far too little research has been done in the area of use efficiency and actual con— sumer needs as related to energy resource expenditures, and as related to family economics and availability of energy resources. (153) , THE CONSUMER PRICE INDEX for January 1973, U.S. City Average, Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor, March 1973. 142 Full freezers, generally classified as one of the major kitchen appliances, are not usually found in the kitchen. Frequently they are located in utility rooms, basements, recreation rooms, garages, or porches. Separate freezers have come into use particularly strongly since World War II. Certain socio-economic conditions such as food shortages or high prices have spurred the sale of such freezer units. They are sold as vertical cabinets similar to refrigerators, or as horizontal chests. Everthing else being equal, the horizontal units are more energy-use efficient by 3 to 5% simply because the cold-air "spillout" does not occur. Chest units are more often more efficient for other reasons. For example, exterior walls can serve as condensers, doing away with separate condensers subject to space limitations. Such space limitations make it necessary to use fans to cool the condensers. When the exterior walls are used as condenser surfaces, dew-point heaters may not be necessary as they are when separate condensers are used. Use of frozen foods in any form must be classified as relatively energy-intensive. Energy required to freeze foodstuffs is similar in amount to the energy required to freeze water, viz. 144 Btu/1b. To slow the deterioration of foods in the frozen state and keep them for longer than a few days, they must be near 0° F, with commensurate energy costs. Defrosting a freezer adds to energy demand, -- substantially so when using a unit equipped with an automatic defrost system, on the order of 50% more. Freezers placed in a household can be assumed to run throughout the year independent of load, and may frequently be the source of energy waste. Heat gain inside the compartment of a unit is a function of its size. Again, one finds little published data on how these freezers are operated. Some data may have been collected privately by industry members as a part 143 of their own consumer-research activities, yet it is unlikely that such research would be concerned with energy utilization. How frozen foods, and frozen-food storage Space, are handled as related to energy costs and alternatives is suggested as a subject for a worthwhile research project. The assortment of devices for Domestic Cooking varies widely. The kitchen range is a transition from the age of the cookstove, hand-fired by wood or coal. The cookstove, as the name implies, served also as a room-heating unit, and, almost always, for waterheating as well. As these functions were split up - cooking, space heating, and water heating, -- energy-utilization tended to become less efficient. Gas as a cooking fuel became dominant during the first two decades of the 20th century. From then on electric cookery came in to compete with gas, the other fuels being almost completely displaced for the purpose of cooking foods. The 1970 Census reports cooking fuels as shown in Table 25. TABLE 25. DOMESTIC COOKING FUELS, BY OCCUPIED HOUSING UNITS. Utility gas 31.2 x 106 occupied housing units Bottled, tank, and LP gas 5.3 Electricity 25.8 Fuel oil, kerosene, etc. 0.3 Coal or coke 0.2 Wood 0.4 Other fuel 0.04 None 0.2 Source: Census of 1970, U.S. Summary HC (1) Bl, Fuels and Appliances, Table 24, p. 1-254. 144 In the kitchen there has been a strong trend towards electricity and away from other fuels. This trend persists in the face of an overall efficiency for electricity which is relatively low when compared with fossil fuels like gas. It should be noted that the above information is at fault in that it fails to account for small electric cooking appliances that are often found extensively in most wired homes.(]69) It must be assumed, there- fore, that they are found in housing units categorized under gas. Little important data on use-practices with portable cooking appliances could be found. Because of many variables, energy-utilization efficiency in the use of cooking-ranges is difficult to achieve. Several studies made quite some time ago established a comparative energy-utilization ratio, gas vs. electric, of roughly 2 : 1.(]70) These data do not take into account the continuous burning of pilot flames on gas ranges, which may use up 1000 Btu/hr. There are several pilot flames involved. The most efficient, called "mini-pilot," takes about 125 Btu/hr.(]7]) Relatively simple tech— nical solutions are available which can eliminate the need for pilot flames. Energy losses in current cookery practices are substantial. It is stated that thermal efficiency for top burners on gas ranges should not be less than 40%, and for surface units of electric ranges less than 60%.(172) (169) Portable appliances are most often acquired as gifts on certain occasions, bridal showers, wedding gifts, Christmas gifts, and so on. This practice contributes to their proliferation and often duplication. (170) Gas Engineers Handbook, Table 12-1550, 99, 915, (171) from Service Dept., Consumers Power Co., Lansing, Mich. (172) Peet, 39. 913.. PP. 204-205. 145 The 60% would represent an overall energy-utilization efficiency of about 18%, which roughly confirms the 2 : 1 ratio, gas vs. electric. These values are difficult to measure, however, and their attainment is subject to many variables: cooking utensils, their condition, characteristics and size as related to heating element or flame, and user practices. Ovens and broilers suffer from losses occasioned by the problem Of heat transfer to the food. Oven design and construction has rarely placed a high priority on efficiency of heat transfer and energy-utilization. Because of low return in an economic sense, the study of how energy is employed to prepare foods, and of whether and to what degree cooking is nec- essary in the first place, has never been intensive. The prevailing phi- 1osophy created by the notion Of cheap and abundant energy resources has discouraged more careful treatment of the subject. Some home—equipment texts give suggestions for economical use of gas and electricity:(]73) (1) Keep all parts of the range clean. (2) Use a small burner or unit instead of a large one, whenever possible (3) Put the utensil on before turning on the heat, so that the heat goes into the utensil instead of into you. Turn off the heat before re- moving the utensil. (4) Boil only the amount of water that is needed; you speed up the job, save fuel, and prevent heat in the kitchen. (5) When water begins to boil, turn unit or burner to "low" or "simmer" position. Slowly-boiling water is as hot as rapidly-boiling water. (6) Use covered utensils if feasible. (173) Peet, 92, gj§,, PP. 204-205. 146 (7) Use the thermostatic surface heat—control unit for all frying, if such a control is provided. With prOper heating, fat will not smoke. (8) Do not pre-heat the oven too long before use. (9) Obtain free circulation of air in the oven by placing pans in alter- nate positions on the racks. (10) When roasting or baking, use the oven to capacity. Cook food for another day. (11) Use accurate baking temperatures. (12) When the oven is well insulated, turn off the heat a few minutes before the end of the baking period, and finish the baking with re- tained heat. (13) Avoid raising pot covers and opening the oven door during cooking operations. (14) Do not pre-heat the broiler. The grid is easier to clean if food is placed on a cold rack. NO data are available which define the above rules as a measure of utilization efficiency. Most of the suggestions simply follow common- sense principles. TO what degree these suggestions are a part of actual practice is unknown. Regarding item (7), few ranges, and then only selected surface-units, are equipped with thermostatic surface heat-control units; in still fewer are such thermostatic controls presumed to be effectively Opera- tive in combination with suitable utensils. A more recent innovation, the "Countertop That Cooks" (manufactured by Corning Glass Co.) requires the exclusive use of matching cooking uten- sils sold by the same manufacturer. In this case, the built-in thermo- sensors work very well, and energy-utilization efficiency is most likely improved. Referring to item (12), few ovens are well enough insulated to 147 utilize residual heat in the oven mass for an appreciable length of time. Timing of the turn-off would have to be automatic in order to be effective. Energy-utilization efficiencies in cookery can be materially improved through existing knowledge and known technologies. Such knowledge leading to improvement in practices can in some instances provide direct economic gain to the practitioner, though relatively small in monetary terms. These are some Of the points made in the list of suggestions cited above. Other improvements, particularly those derived from known technologies, require capital investment which most often cannot be rationalized. To illustrate, buying a micro-wave oven, five times as efficient as a conventional range oven (since almost the entire energy input goes into the food), that costs $300, is difficult to rationalize when the average electricity cost per year for Operating a conventional range oven, at a 3¢/kWh electricity rate, may amount to perhaps $20. Similarly, a $25 pressure cooker, with the poten- tial of reducing the energy input to 1/3 to 1/10 of conventional and with annual input of 100 times per year for one cooked dish, thereby saving per- haps 2 million Btu/yr at a cost of $2, is not a good investment in economic terms only. Both devices do save time for the homemaker. Clearly other incentives will have to come into play. Following the above line of argument, an overriding question comes into focus. It concerns the overall energy budget. All products under dis- cussion here require energy to produce, distribute, and service. Therefore, even though the economics may be favorable--which is not the case in the illustrations cited, -- use of different methods and equipment may be unde- sirable from such an overall energy-budget point of view. Similar considerations apply to all small so-called portable appli- ances for cooking. These, by nature, are all electrically heated. 148 They have been found more energy-use efficient, but they take more time.(]74) Their economic and energy-budget justification nevertheless could be chal- lenged. No hard data appear to be available on the matter. Related to cookery, a more recent innovation is "self-cleaning" ovens. Cleaning is done by one of two processes. One is pyrolytic, in the case of electric ovens, and the other is catalytic, in the case of gas ovens. In either case, energy is used, in effect, to oxidize organic materials de- posited as soil on oven surfaces as a result of the cooking process. This oxidation is accomplished by application of heat for a sufficient length of time. Average use Of electricity for one cleaning of an electric oven is about 7 kWh. Ovens have to be constructed to withstand the higher heat levels, about 880° F, as against 500° F maximum for conventional ovens. Ad- ditionally, a fan is required to ventilate the oven cavity. Therefore the entire process is a material energy consumer. The situation is similar for gas ranges. In these, however, the number of self-cleaning ovens in use is negligible. The cooking-fuel choice, when acquiring a kitchen-range, is not always made on a basis which is economically justifiable. In the case Of new hous- ing, the choices are often made by the builder. Gas costs less than elec- tricity on a heat-energy-value basis. Yet, in more recent years, preference (174) From a talk by Genevieve K. Taylor, November 15, 1962, before the 40th Annual Agricultural Outlook Conference, reporting on a study done at the Equipment Laboratory, U.S. Department Of Agriculture, Clothing and Housing Research Division, Beltsville, Md.; 2 different meal programs carried out for one year showed an annual kWh consump- tion of 1033 (Range) vs. 708 (Portable Appliances) and 1135 vs. 905 respectively. In a different statistical arrangement, ranges con- sumed 10.06 kWh, portable appliances 7.97 kWh for the same task. The question: "Could portable appliances be substituted for standard or built-in ranges?" was answered in the affirmative. 149 for electric cooking has gained. For electric-range cookery, at a rate of 3 cents/kWh and an elec- tricity-utilization efficiency of 60%, the annual energy cost would be about $36/yr for the approximately average consumption of 1200 kWh. The equivalent situation for gas-range cookery, with a range of about $1.50/ million Btu and an utilization efficiency of 40%, would result in an annual cost of about $9/yr. Current sales of new electric-range units exceed those of gas ranges. Average retail price for electric ranges is higher than that for gas ranges.(]75) In urban areas, where availability of both gas and electricity can be assumed, electric ranges in use during 1940 were 5% of the combined gas and electric-range total. By 1970 the percentage for electric ranges had risen to 37%. For the same period the percentage of gas ranges de- clined from 73% to 62%.(176) Obviously, there are forces at work here that go beyond the economics of the market. The notion of the "elegance" of electricity has already been mentioned in this study. Just what these forces consist of, and what their degree of intensity is, would require more in-depth research than (175) 1972 sales as reported in Merchandising Week, February 26, 1973, p. 27: Average retail price Units per unit Electric ranges 3,231,900 $219 Gas ranges 2,659,900 209 All types of ranges are included in the above. (176) , CENSUS SHOWS LATEST FUEL PREFERENCE DATA, in Electrical World, January 1, 1973. 150 what is possible here. Opportunities for improvement are many, from measuring lines in utensils to cooking by microwave. Dishwashers have an annual energy consumption estimated by the Edison Electric Institute (1969) at 363 kWh. Not included in this estimate is the energy required to heat water to 150°-160°, about 4 to 5 gallons per cycle. Next, pumping the water to the inlet valve of the dishwasher takes energy. The spray-arm needs a motor-pump unit of 1/4 to 1/3 HP. Finally, drying of the dishes is generally done through the application of heat de- rived from heating elements rated 500 to 1400 Watts. In other words, to dry the dishes, the water is boiled off not merely from the surface of the dishes, but from the racks and interior walls of the dishwasher compartment as well. In some few cases, wattage of the drying element is reduced to about one-half for the remainder of the dry-cycle, after most of the water has presumably evaporated. A few makes of dishwashers have a fan that moves electrically-heated air through the compartment, a method more energy- efficient than simply boiling off the rinse-water left on the surfaces from the washing process. This method, of course, increases the equipment cost somewhat. It should be noted that the amount of water adhering to surfaces is relatively high because of the wetting agents in the detergent. Some homemakers rinse the dishes before loading them, and thereby simply add to the hot-water consumption. Except for certain utensils, this method is not normally encouraged by manufacturers in their instructions. It is the special hot-water—using appliances, dishwashers and clothes washers, which make it necessary to set waterheater thermostats at temper- atures higher than required for other uses. Dishwasher manufacturers ask in their instructions that the water heater thermostats be set at 150° to 160° F. This temperature is higher than required for clothes washers, 151 where the recommendations call for 140° F, the normal factory setting of water heater thermostats. These requirements lead to heat losses which, though unknown in amount are difficult to justify. It poses the question as to whether it would not be more efficient to raise temperatures to suit requirements at the point of use. A few models of dishwashers on the market are equipped with self-contained heaters for this purpose. European practice is to heat the water in these appliances by direct heating with electricity or gas. d. Home Laundry and Fabrics Care activities use electricity in the esti— mated amounts shown in Table 26. Note the dominance of the clothes dryer; also, some dryers use gas as a fuel. TABLE 26. ESTIMATED ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION, HOME LAUNDRY AND FABRICS CARE. Average Wattage Annual kWh Automatic washer 512 102 Clothes dryer 4,856 993 Hand iron 1,008 144 Sewing machine 75 11 Source: Estimate by the Edison Electric Institute, 1969. Automatic washers, in addition to the electricity consumed as shown above, use water which has an energy-expenditure content, namely that required for delivery and for heating. Frequency of use, load-capacity Of the washer, size of loads, amounts and temperature of hot water per load, stock of washables in the household, and family size, are functions of energy consumption by the washing process. A further load not entirely accounted for in the above is the momentary 152 electricity demand surges at the time of starting or changing cycles of the wash program. The vertical-axis agitator-washer dominates in the United States and in the few other countries where there are adequate supplies of running hot water for residential units. Elsewhere, horizontal tumbler-type washers are customary, they are generally equipped with built-in waterheating, and on the average, use less water per wash. The difference between the two methods is total immersion for the vertical-axis type, and continuous wet- ting (but without immersion) for the horizontal-axis type. Washing machines built in the United States are powered by 1/4- to 1/2— HP capacitor-start motors, which may have 2 or even 3 speeds. Loading capa— city of these washers ranges from about 8 lb. to 20 1b. Of washables, dry weight. Some washers are equipped to do "mini-loads." When not loaded to full capacity, the energy-utilization efficiency per unit (i.e., per lb. of washables) declines. As with most appliances, washing machines are designed and marketed to sell on the basis of lowest first-cost. The low cost of electricity consump- tion on an annual basis does not leave much margin for improving energy- utilization efficiency on strictly economic grounds. Opportunities would 'appear to lie in raising spin-speeds to reduce water retention and thereby speed drying, in reducing water consumption, and in extending the service life of the machine (now estimated at 8 to 10 years). Increased spin-speed without deliberate modulation of acceleration would tend unduly to increase the consumption Of energy and the cost of the mechanism. Therefore, machines would need acceleration control tuned to the load, including its water con- tent. Washing in cold -- or at least temperate-- water has been demonstrated 153 as technically feasible. Detergents for this purpose are commercially available. Questions Of quality, and of cultural and esthetic acceptability, would need to be studied, as would be the case with reduction in laundering frequency. Commercial or community laundering also needs to be investigated from an energy-economics point of view. Detergents pose an energy-budget type of question. Most of the current detergents are derived from fossil- fuel minerals or materials, and as such need to be examined and reviewed for possible alternatives based on renewable natural resources. The distribution of domestic laundry appliances among households is shown in Table 27. TABLE 27. WASHERS AND DRYERS IN U.S. HOUSEHOLDS 1970. Clothes-washing‘machines Wringer or spinner 7.1 x 106 units Automatic or semi-automatic 38.0 None 18.3 Clothes dryers Gas-heated 7.8 Electrically heated 18.6 None 37.0 Source: Census of 1970, U.S. Summary HC (1) Bl, Fuels and Appliances, Table 24, p. 1-254. These figures show a washer-to-dryer ratio of about 9 : 5. Current sales of washers and dryers run at a ratio of 5 : 4, indicative of the current relative gain in dryer saturation, inasmuch as lifetimes are comparable. The situation with respect to choice of fuel is again similar to that for domestic cooking ranges. Despite relatively higher energy costs for electricity, electric dryers outsell gas dryers by roughly a ratio of 3 : l. (177) At retail, gas dryers cost about $30 more than electric dryers. (177) 1972: Electric 2,988,700, Gas 936,200, Merchandising Week, Feb. 26, 1973, 92,.eit., p. 27. 154 There is also an additional installation cost, say $30, because gas dryers must be hooked up to both gas and electric services. With an average total cost premium Of $60, at $1.50/million Btu/yr and 3cents/kWh for electricity, respectively, it would take roughly 300 loads to come out even, up to 3 years to the point of payoff. Almost every case, however, would have to be looked at separately, with consideration of other energy uses and utility block rates. Domestic clothes drying traditionally has been done in atmospheric air, preferably in the sun, and with only minor exceptions, still is, except in North America and a few other places. Mechanical clothes dryers use energy in its crudest form, namely heat, to evaporate water absorbed or adsorbed by textiles and fabrics during laundering. Heated air is circu- lated, while the loads to be dried are tumbled mechanically to expose the fabric surfaces to the heated air. As already indicated, the energy is obtained either by gas or elec- tricity. In the case of gas, the air movement and the tumbling are powered electrically. Electric dryers have a rated input of up to about 5400 Watts, whereas gas dryers may have input ratings of up to 30,000 Btu/hr plus the electricity required by a 1/4 to 1/3 HP motor (about 200 Watts or so) for operating the fan and the tumbling cylinder. It is not unusual for 15,000 Btu to be consumed in drying an average full load. During seasonal periods when the residence is heated or cooled, additional energy may be used up by pulling air from conditioned spaces at rates up to 200 cubic feet per minute. 155 Venting of dryers is generally recommended, preferably to outdoors. Indoor venting may cause moisture and heat-accumulation problems. Gas dryers generally pass the gaseous product of combustion directly through the clothes, and therefore must be vented outdoors for health and safety reasons. 7 There is little difference in drying efficiency between gas and elec- tric on a heat basis.(]78) Overall energy efficiency with electricity, however, is 30% or less. Drying efficiency with gas is theoretically quite high, but is impaired by the water-vapor content of the products of com- bustion and heat losses. Additional electric energy is required for me- chanical action, as mentioned in the foregoing. Some dryers come equipped with water-cooled condensers. to condense the water vapor content of the exhaust, and in part eliminate venting. The condensate goes into a drain. Overdrying of fabrics and garments wastes energy, and leads to pre- mature destruction Of materials. Below 5% moisture retention, lubrica- tion between fibers is lost, with the result that fabric wear is accel- erated. In any case, tumble-drying causes more wear than atmospheric air- drying. Attempts have been made to overcome the problem by installing moisture-sensing devices located in the drum or the exhaust airpath. The intent is to reduce heat input over the length of the drying cycle commen- surate with reduction in air-moisture content, or to end the drying program before over-drying is reached. These sensing devices increase initial cost and frequency of service. In their functioning, moreover, they are subject to some variables which are difficult to control. Ideally, dryers (178) Gas Engineers Handbook, Table 12-1550, 99, git, 156 should take no more heat input than that prescribed by the water-vapor- holding capacity of the drying air. Present-day operation of dryers is far from this ideal, even with those units equipped with sensing devices. Some heat losses Occur through the mass of the appliance itself which absorbs heat and gradually releases it into the environment, both during and after Operation. In connection with large consumers of energy, in this case dryers, heat recovery is sometimes mentioned. Whether this technique has any merit at all would need to be scrutinized in great detail. Invari- ably, heat recovery takes additional available energy in accordance with thermodynamic principles. Most housing construction in recent years has assumed that clothes dryers are to be installed. Convenient and clean enough air spaces for atmospheric drying are not often being provided. Public policy could be devised to encourage atmospheric drying whenever possible, both outdoor and sheltered. Ironing by hand has been decreased by permanent-press finishes and by the introduction of synthetic fibers. But it has not been eliminated, and it takes heat energy, time, and work. Hand irons are electrically heated, the heat being dissipated into the immediate environment. Except for the low overall efficiency of electric energy, during the heating season there is no heat loss. There is a loss at other times, and an additional fractional loss when airconditioning is required. To illustrate the intensive use of hand irons: 1972 sales were 9,510,000 units; the in— (179) dicated saturation is 91.4% of wired homes. Ironing is closely tied to esthetic and cultural questions. Usually disliked by homemakers, (179) Merchandising Week, gg, e15. 157 ironing is done to satisfy social convention, homemaker taste and values. e. Miscellaneous Devices, such as outdoor paraphernalia, small appliances other than cooking appliances, powered devices used for personal care, electrical home-workshop tools, and a host of electrical gadgets, have proliferated in American households. Energy demand varies from very small, in the case of clocks, to as high as hundreds of watts for garbage disposers or waste compactors. Average annual electricity consumption may range from 2 kWh for Operating the clocks to 150 kWh for bedcoverings. There is a scarcity of information on the total number of these devices in service, or on their use in terms of electrical energy demand. Little is known re- garding the various rationales behind their use. To some persons, they are a necessity, to others only luxuries. In different words, the degree to which these devices contribute to the quality of life is a complex function of a set of variables. The in- disputable fact is that all these devices contribute to the per capita growth in demand for energy. Some may argue that the individual amounts are too small to be given much attention. Such arguments ignore the re- sultingly large aggregations in demand due to creation of the product or service, the subsequent consumption by product or service, the eventual disposal cost in energy terms, and all the associated costs of environ- mental impact. A similar situation prevails with either electrically-or fossil-fuel- powered outdoor equipment: lawn mowers, garden tractors, hedge clippers, edgers, snowplows or snowblowers, lawnsweepers, leave-shredders, and others. Again, information on the energy consumption through these uses is scarce, and it is therefore difficult, if not impossible, to make any determination 158 of energy-utilization efficiency or justification of these energy consump- tions. These uses are propelled by forces which seek economic and social welfare--aff1uence, if you wish--for more and more people, besides reducing labor and saving time. Various forms of energy in combination with tech- nology are used for this purpose without a full assessment of the consequen— ces. Most of the questions raised in this section are candidates for assess- ment by means of the scheme suggested in Part B. 3. TRANSPORTATION PERIPHERAL TO THE RESIDENTIAL ENVIRONMENT In most analyses of energy-utilization patterns, transportation has been lumped into a separate category. This choice Often appears to be un- fortunate in that it tends to sidetrack the significance of energy consump- tion by households for transportation purposes. In fact, the dominant share of such transportation activities is the result of decisions made by members of family units. In transporting people, these decisions are most often direct. In transporting goods, the underlying decisions are usually indirect, having a chain-effect going back to the origins and through the processing steps for such goods and services. Transportation is insepar- able from household activities, particularly those immediately peripheral. Hence transportation by automobile must be brought into focus, in consider- ing energy utilization efficiency in residential uses. Transportation of goods and peOple consumes about one-fourth of the 15 total United States energy effort, 16.5 x 10 Btu out of a total of 68 x 15 10 Btu. 159 How energy is used for transportation is shown in Table 28. TABLE 28. DISTRIBUTION OF ENERGY WITHIN THE TRANSPORTATION SECTOR, 1970. 1. Automobiles Urban 28.9% Intercity 26.5 53.3% 2. Aircraft Freight 0.8 Passenger 6.7 7.5 3. Railroads Freight 3.2 Passenger 0.1 3.3 4. Trucks Intercity Freight 5.8 Other Uses 15.3 21.1 5. Waterways, Freight 1.0 6. Pipelines 1.2 7. Buses 0.5 8. Other 10.1* Total 100.0% * Includes passenger traffic by boat, general aviation, pleasure boating, and non—bus urban mass transit. Source: CONSERVATION OF ENERGY, Committee on Interior and Insular Affairs, U.S. Senate, S.R. 45, Serial No. 92-18, USGPO Washington, 1972, p.48. Nearly all Of the transportation demand is met by petroleum; in 1970, 25% of the supply was imported.(]80) These imports are rising, and for 1973 the estimate is 35% of total usage. Imports are subject to a number of problems as already covered in Chapter V, namely, source dependability, balance of payments, and availability, among others. (180) , U.S. Bureau Of Mines, "U.S. Energy Use at New High in 1971," News Release, March 31, 1972. 160 Present transportation is highly dependent on petroleum. As already cited, 46% of the total 1973 energy demand in the U.S. is met by petroleum. Growth in demand progressed rapidly to 1965 when it was 42 barrels per person per year, 61 barrels in 1970; the figure is projected to be 99 barrels in l985f‘81) (182) Potential world supply, although still large, is finite. Demand is rising all over the world, and is pushing up price. The new sources, moreover, are even more costly to develop. Exploration, production, trans- portation, refining, and consumption of petroleum products create a host of primary and higher-order impacts. These include: risk of tanker acci- dents and Oil spillage, oilwell fires, blowouts and seepage, brine disposal, air pollution from refinery, and air and thermal pollution from the com- bustion of petroleum products. Other related difficulties are manifest in urban congestion, inefficient land use, and noise. Urban and rural settlement and family-activity patterns have evolved during the 20th century in a way that these activities are more and more dependent upon the automobile for transportation. What is significant is that this mode of getting about is highly energy-intensive in comparison with other modes, as can be seen from Table 29. (181) From a study by THE CHASE MANHATTAN BANK, quoted in U.S. News and World Reports, February 19, 1973, p. 30. (182) Supply, 641 barrels proved world reserves. Estimate is by British Petroleum l97l. Against a current world consumption rate of 18 billion barrels annually, the supply would last about 30 years. From Christopher T. Rand, THE ARABIAN FANTASY, HARPER'S, January 1974, pp. 42-54. 161 TABLE 29. ENERGY EFFICIENCY OF PASSENGER TRANSPORTATION. Intercity Passenger Traffic Btu/Passenger-Mile Buses 1,090 Railroads 1,700 Automobiles 4,250 Airplanes 9,700 Urban Passenger Traffic Btu/Passenger-Mile Bicycles 180 Walking 300 Buses 1,240 Automobiles 5,060 Source: CONSERVATION OF ENERGY, Committee on Interior and Insular Affairs, U.S. Senate, S.R. 45, Serial No.92-18, USGPO Washington, 1972, p.49. The efficiency Of the automobile engine varies widely during start- up, idling, acceleration, and deceleration. It is influenced by design and size of engine, power requirements of accessories, maintenance, and, most importantly, Operation practices. Vehicle weight has a direct re- lationship to fuel consumption. The spark-ignition engine has a theoreti- cal efficiency of about 30% at a compression ratio of 10 : l, but actually operates at an overall efficiency of about 18% or less. The outlook for improving these efficiencies appears to be limited. Before weighing the relevant factors, one needs to examine Tables 30 and 31 which give information on how the private automobile, the largest consumer of petroleum, is utilized. 162 TABLE 30. USE OF PRIVATE AUTOMOBILE, AVERAGE LENGTH OF TRIP BY ITS MAJOR PURPOSE. Earning a Living 10.2 miles Family Affairs 5.6 Educational, Civic, and Religious 4.7 Social and Recreational 13.1 (Vacations alone 165.1) Source: Harry E. Strate, NATIONWIDE PERSONAL TRANSPORTATION STUDY, Seasonal Variations of Automobile Trips and Travel, U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, Report No. 3, April 1972, Table 4, p. 13. TABLE 31. USE OF PRIVATE AUTOMOBILE, TRIP LENGTH BY PURPOSE AND RESIDENCE, OCCUPANCY, AND TRIPS PER WEEK AND PURPOSE. Average Trip Length by its Major Purpose: Unincorporated Places (representing 33.8% of trips and 37.9% of vehicle miles) 9.9 miles Incorporated Places (representing 66.2% of trips and 62.1% of vehicle miles) 8.3 Vehicle Occupancy by Major Purpose of Trip: Earning a Living 1.4 persons Family Affairs 2.0 Educational, Civic, and Religious 2.5 Social and Recreational 2.5 Vacations alone 3.3 Average Trips per Week, Distribution by Major Purpose: Earning a Living 36.1% Family Affairs 30.9 Educational, Civic, and Religious 9.2 Social and Recreational 22.5 N/A 1.3 100.0% Distribution data is based on 1,669,718 trips per week. Source: Harry E. Strate, NATIONWIDE PERSONAL TRANSPORTATION STUDY, Seasonal Variations of Automobile Trips and Travel, U.S. Depart- ment of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, Report No. 3, April 1972, Table 1, p. 8. Harry E. Strate, NATIONWIDE PERSONAL TRANSPORTATION STUDY, Auto- mobile Occupancy, U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal High— way Administration, Report NO. 1, April 1972, Table 7, p. 18. 163 Other information shows that more than one-half of all trips go less than five miles, and that 82% of commuting workers use automobiles as a (183) means of transport, 56% as single occupants. Estimated annual miles per automobile are shown in Table 32. TABLE 32. ESTIMATED ANNUAL MILES PER AUTOMOBILE. Households one-car two-car three-car all Miles(l,000) 10.8 12.0 12.8 11.6 Percent car-owning households 61.0 32.2 5.8 100.0 Percent vehicles 42.5 45.4 12.1 100.0 Percent vehicle miles 38.7 47.0 13.3 100.0 Source: Harry E. Strate, NATIONWIDE PERSONAL TRANSPORTATION STUDY, Annual Miles of Automobile Travel, U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, Report No. 2, April 1972, Table l, p. 8. The average annual miles per vehicle rises from 6,600 for a reported in- come under $3,000 to 15,000 for incomes over $15,000.('84) (183) THE POTENTIAL FOR ENERGY CONSERVATION, 9p, 213,, p. C-9. (184) Harry E. Strate, NATIONWIDE PERSONAL TRANSPORTATION STUDY, ANNUAL Miles of Automobile Travel, U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, Report NO. 2, April 1972, Table 5, p. 16. 164 The average fuel consumption rate is reported as shown in Table 33. TABLE 33. AVERAGE FUEL CONSUMPTION STANDARD-SIZE, COMPACT -SIZE, AND SUBCOMPACT-SIZE AUTOMOBILES, 1972. (1) Standard-size Automobile (a) 13.60 miles/gallon (2) Compact-size Automobile (b) 15.97 (3) Subcompact-size Automobile (c) 21.43 (a) four-door sedan, V-8 engine, automatic transmission, power- steering and brakes, airconditioning, radio, clock (b) two-door sedan, 6-cylinder engine, automatic transmission, power steering, clock (c) two-door sedan, 6-cy1inder engine, radio Source: L. L. Liston and C. L. Gauthier, COST OF OPERATING AN AUTOMOBILE, Suburban-Based Operation, U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, Report NO. 2, April 1972, P- 8- Added to the foregoing energy costs must be those contained in the product, such as: Production and marketing chain Maintenance, accessories, parts and tires Street and highway construction, maintenance, lighting, policing, parking, and garaging Disposal It is of note, that economic energy costs per use of average automobile operation in cents per mile have been relatively modest. This is shown in Table 34. 165 TABLE 34. AVERAGE AUTOMOBILE OPERATING COSTS, STANDARD-SIZE, COMPACT-SIZE, AND SUBCOMPACT-SIZE AUTOMOBILES, 1972. Q) U) a r— m 0) Cl U Q) X C “I" S- m 'r— U) n: a 00(— H x 0) mo GIG/1+, '— S— X >‘r" QC.) ".0? (U (U 4) Cw-‘U CC C). Q) U44 F-fU (US—C -.— U C i‘U'F‘ COM UU " C for- CU QJU', C: 0) f5 f5 q—Q’ .pmm cup—- mm $- QJL :— U’S— C0)“ U Mr— : +40) M L0) MUM 0‘00) 1‘60 C HQ) 0 OT, EMO- (Dv (54.) 0—0 WU. ’— Standard Size 4.4 2.6 2.1 1.8 1.4 1.8 13.6 Compact s1ze 2.7 2.2 1.8 1.8 1.3 1.0 10.8 Subcompact STZe 2.1 2.1 1.4 1.8 1.2 .8 9.4 Source: L.L. Liston and C. L. Gauthier, COST OF OPERATING AN AUTOMOBILE, Suburban-Based Operation, U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, April 1972, cover page. 166 Several researchers have recently reported on possibilities for re- ducing energy demand from the transportation sectorAIBS) Suggested recom- mendations generally center on a change in transportation modes, from auto- mobiles tO mass transport as an illustration. Solutions so presented are often oversimplified. Contemporary family-activity patterns, lifestyles, and the built-up environment have evolved simultaneously with the development of the private- automobile transportation system. If technology changes to accommodate energy availability, social and cultural practices will have to change simultaneously. To state it simply, it is a case of negotiating present trip distances at less energy expenditure, i.e. improving utilization effi- ciency, or it is a case Of reducing the physical distances--and preferably both. The alternative exists, of course, of forgoing some trips altogether by answering the familiar question negatively: "Is this trip necessary?" Cable communications could fit in as a partial solution to this problem. What can be readily seen from these alternatives is how the decision- making processes within family units may affect the outcome. "Suburbia" and "urban sprawl" are one outcome of such decisions. Com- munications, in particular the private automobile, have been a major tech- nology in creating the form of present human settlements in the United States. Many of the distances between nodes of activity or interest have become too great for walking. The automobile has evolved into the most de- sired means for solving the problem, and a systems relationship has been created. For Opportunities, then, one has to look at the components Of the (185) for example: Eric Hirst, ENERGY CONSUMPTION FOR TRANSPORTATION IN THE UNITED STATES, Oak Ridge National Laboratories, Oak Ridge, 1972, ORNL-NSF-EP-lS. 167 system. The critical energy-technological component is the means for provid- ing family transportation on the basis of free choice. The trend to smaller cars and to bicycles is significant. From a modest share in the market during the 1960's, then mostly imports, compact and more recently sub-compact automobiles have made dramatic gains in market share. By early 1972 this share had become about 35%. For 1973 the estimate is about 45%.(‘8°) In 1972 there were 11.5 million bicycles sold in the United States. For comparison, new passenger car sales during the same period were 10.9 million. Not since the beginning of World War I have bicycle sales exceeded automobile sales. As can be noted from the data on trip frequency and trip distance given in this section, vehicles pos- sessing low-energy-budget characteristics would seem to serve the family purposes better than mass-transit solutions. Small electrically-operated vehicles that take advantage of new technology could be more suitable. Solid-state electronic devices can make such an electrical system more effective than in earlier vehicles. In particular, regenerative braking is now practical. Land-use controls need to be re-examined from the point of view of distance between residence and nodes of activity and interest. Present land-use policies tend to increase travel distances which are now over- come by use of energy under varying degrees of efficiency. This situation is similar to the separation of living units (single-family detached hous- ing including mobile homes), which increases energy demand for indoor cli- mate control. Building, construction, and housing codes are also subject (185) , Detroit Free Press, December 23, 1973, p. 11C. 168 to scrutiny in this light. Energy consumed for purposes of residential-peripheral transportation -- as is the case with nearly all residential energy consumption, direct or indirect -- can be rationalized to become much more efficient over time. The process can be aided by decisions based on higher levels of knowledge and information, and also by appropriate changes in technology and other resources. ReStructured and re-oriented for a significant role in this task, home-economics education can be important, especially if paralleled with similarly—oriented engineering education. The apparent dearth Of knowledge and information will have to be overcome by research and study. New texts concerned with the subject are needed. Most uses of energy involve technology. Any contemplated application of technology needs to be assessed in terms of impact on the quality of life, so as to provide for most rational choice among alternatives, a con- cept to be developed further in Part B. PART B TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT AS A MANAGEMENT METHOD Energy-Use Decisions, Their Impacts And Their Measurements How families and individuals -- that is, society -- utilize and con- sume energy resources has been described in the last chapter of Part A. Earlier chapters gave an overview of the energy situation, emphasizing that much of the supply in currently-used energy forms is all too finite, that efficiency or efficacy of utilization can at the very least be ques- tioned, that growth in demand -- given prevailing attitudes -- will mostly move the price rapidly upward, that as a result many distribution problems need to be faced, that energy use may well be in conflict with the environ- ment, and that attempts at resolution of these problems will force the de- velopment and adoption of an energy policy to effect reasonably equitable access to energy supplies. Policy as foreseen will no doubt include en- couraging the development of present sources and technologies, finding new ones, improving conversion and transmission efficiency, and finally, pro- moting efficiency of utilization and adoption of conservation practices. Stated differently, the unfolding developments demand better management of the resources, under which are included application of the relevant technologies. Management means planning and strategies, dimensions and measurements of energy-utilization in terms of efficiency, both in an economic as well as in a social sense. 169 170 Better management implies more and better information to aid the decision-maker. In the business and industry sector, including trans- portation in support of it, the availability and the economic cost of energy resources can usually be assumed to guide utilization decisions. Business management planning will tend to accommodate current and future situations as they may be affected by demand, price, and availability of energy, and the needs of the particular enterprise. Externalities or social costs will not play a significant role unless they are transformed to internalities in the cost calculus. The situation is quite different for residential utilization of energy, where knowledge and information, together with planning capa- bilities regarding energy and its technology, are apt to be quite imperfect. Yet, as pointed out earlier in this study, a very large share of the total demand for energy has its origin within the family-unit decisions to acquire energy-consuming facilities, products, and services, and to engage in activities and practices which are a source for the demand. Many of the energy-related decisions made in the industrial or transportation sectors are merely secondary or intermediate responses following the family-unit decisions which either immediately or ultimately result in energy con- sumption. It is this complex of decisions found in the residential sector which builds in a bias toward energy demand and consumption. In the future, a piece of home equipment, a structure, a device, put into operation today, will carry with it an energy-consumption liability for its entire service life as a result of the decision-patterns outlined. Therefore, family-unit decisions appear to be the critical and central locus Of the problem. The aggregations of these consumer decisions are called "social choices"; or, 171 restated in broader terms, social choice in a given environment is an aggregation of order preferences. There are two methods by which these choices generally are made, the economic one, through the market, and the political one, by voting. In the area of energy technology, social choices are likely to be based on a mixture of political and economic decisions. One reason is that large political units have become subject to the promotion by pressure groups representing their own economic interest. These groups Often reflect market demand or economic considerations in some form. The nature of the process as it relates to the subject has probably never been carefully explored. The market and the ballot are amalgamations of individual preferences. The question of whether it is formally possible to construct a procedure for passing from sets of individual preferences to predictable patterns of social decision-making has been well worked over during recent decades. (187)(]88) There appears to be no definitive evidence that the question can be answered affirmatively, even when assuming rational and well- informed decision-makers. The indications are that it may be impossible to aggregate formally on any theory of value. Whether expressed through market or political choice, many decisions reach beyond measures of physical quantity or economic value and therefore involve value judgments. Often, if not always, the outcomes are de facto Situations evolved by and through representative government and the political process. Under the assumption (187) Kenneth J. Arrow, SOCIAL CHOICE AND INDIVIDUAL VALUES, John Wiley 8 Sons, New York, 1963 (1951). (188) James M. Buchanan and Gordon Tullock, THE CALCULUS 0F CONSENT, Logical Foundations of Constitutional Democracy, University of Michigan Press, Ann Arbor, 1962. 172 that representative government acts in response to constituencies of individuals, the level of knowledge on the part of these individuals be- comes critical in giving direction to the decisions to be made. To pro- vide such knowledge and information for favorably affecting energy-use decisions is one of the central objectives of this work. The ideas which form the basis of this chapter are intended as one possible means leading toward this important objective. Energy-related decisions involve costs and/or benefits: (1) to the decision-maker and his clientele; and (2) to the other parties. There are effects on the economy, the environment, individuals, and society. Some of the decisions have technology-built-in long-range effects along the bias already mentioned. Evaluation of all relevant factors must in part rely on subjective judgments, Often concerning interpersonal com- parison of one state against another state, better off or worse Off, + or - . Obviously, preferences for these states may not be shared among individuals. Quantitative treatment is therefore needed, but it presents serious difficulties. Physical prOperties can be measured, as in natural science. Economic behavior certainly has been in part quantified. But political phenomena are harder to measure. Few will argue that more and better information will not improve on the allocation of resources. But even fewer offer acceptable procedures to achieve this improvement. Pru- dence, moreover, demands attention to the problem of partial information, wherein inadequate information results in inadequate or even wrong decisions. Energy as a resource is used or consumed for its contribution to sustaining the level of living, or, if one prefers, to maximizing the qual- ity Of life. The degree to which energy and energy-powered devices are 173 utilized in industrial society has long been viewed as a good measure of social progress. The development of systems of measurement and evaluation of this progress, however, has been lagging. The recent years have seen attempts to dimension and measure various social states more comprehen- sively, going beyond mere economic and physical criteria. The underlying motivation has been to eliminate the dissatisfaction expressed by many observers with respect to the concept that statement of output and consump— tion in economic and physical terms is an adequate measure of social con- ditions. Standing complaints are, for example, that most externalities imposed on the environment have not been properly accounted for under ex- isting systems; that effects on human environment, health, and well-being are being given insufficient weight; and that the resulting distribution of benefits derived from production and capital formation leaves much to be desired. Among others, Paul A. Samuelson -- author, teacher, scholar in the field of economics and economic behavior, and Nobel-prize winner —- refers to modern political economy as the calculus of quality of life, not merely of material quantity.(]89)(]90) One concept which has evolved for the purpose of measuring the over- all condition of man is "Social Indicators." There are now many references in the sociology literature, in the record of Congressional activities, (189) Paul A. Samuelson, From GNP to NEW, in Newsweek, April 9, 1973, p. 102. (190) Robert Reinhold, MEW or NEW, How Does The Economy Grow? in New York Times, Sunday, July 29, 1973, p. 2 F. 174 and elsewhere.(19]) The concept has not advanced very far in an oper- ational sense as a device for effectively measuring social conditions, or predicting future developments. Among probable reasons may be the problem of establishing sufficiently specific attainable and acceptable goals against which progress measurements can be made, difficulty in developing a methodology employing the principle to the point of demon- strable usefulness, and difficulty with gaining broad public understanding and support. Another concept which has become recognized in recent years is “Technology Assessment.” It relates to the assessment of impacts associ- ated with current developments in technology, and the forecasting of fu- ture technologies and their potential effects on environment and society. Impacts are studied in terms Of over-all human or societal goals. Their effects are to be viewed in the light of different time horizons, and they may be good or bad, beneficial or harmful. As Of now, the primary pur- pose of technology assessment is to aid decision-makers, such as members of the U. S. Congress, with needed information with respect to specific legislative action. Macro-projects with wide-ranging implications for U. S. policy are generally seen as potential subject for this technique, (191) (a) Leslie 0. Wilcox et_el,, SOCIAL INDICATORS AND SOCIETAL MONITORING, An Annotated Bibliography, Jossey-Bass, Inc., San Francisco, 1972. (b) Genevieve J. Knezo, SOCIAL SCIENCE POLICIES; An Annotated List of Recent Literature, Congressional Research Service, Library of Congress, Washington, July 8, 1971 and Addendum dated August 4, 1971. (c) Thomas McVeigh, SOCIAL INDICATORS: A Bibliography, Council of Planning Librarians, NO. 215, Monticello, 111., Sept. 1971. 175 actually a new technology in itself. Technically speaking, social in- dicators may find use in the technology-assessment process. But here again the complaint has been that technology assessment, as it develOped so far, does little for the great multitude of every-day decisions in- volving technology, such as in energy utilization. A Proposed Method for Measurement and Assessment of Alternatives Energy in one form or another is involved in most applications of technology. As pointed out in different parts of this study, the avail— ability of energy resources is increasingly limited by a number of con- straints. Constraints operate to control the use of technology in the search for energy resources, in their development and exploitation, and in distribution and utilization efficiencies of the energy produced.' The forces at work are diverse and generally not well understood, especially those factors contributing to end-effects of technological activities. Conventional analysis thus presents difficulties in arriving at equitable decisions. The search for better methods prompted an examination of the idea of technology assessment. It appears to offer a new approach useful for the ordering and dissemination Of information for purposes of rationalizing energy utilization and consumption. The scheme proposed herein follows the thinking behind technology assessment, but is modified in an attempt to overcome some of the difficulties mentioned earlier, and to directly serve the purpose of this study. The scheme is in part borrowed from the 176 "GAAT System",(]92) particularly its "Human-Want Categories" and its "Satisfaction Index." Improvement in the quality of life, or even maintaining it, is sig— naled by the indicated degree of human-want satisfaction. To render this statement operational, these human wants must be identified. In reality, this process is being carried on all the time, and is therefore hardly new. It is a consciously, but most frequently unconsciously, ongoing process. The proposed scheme aims to improve the process. To illustrate, the en- gineer, as he seeks to apply science, technology, and other resources to satisfy human wants -- often and perhaps erroneously referred to as human "needs" -— characteristically follows the same process, though in a very narrow sense. He needs better and broader-based sets of factor-integrating guides to replace the narrow hardware—oriented principles which have gov- erned his activities in the past. The same is true for the activities of other professionals and administrators who make technology-related deci- sions, which differ from the "social choices" already discussed. The pro— posed scheme is intended, in part, to provide for the deliberate identifi- cation of human wants. To make it Operational requires development of a tractable method of analysis for everyday uses in engineering and adminis— trative activities. The following scheme, therefore, seeks to improve on the process of providing information for more rational social choices as well as to provide better information patterns for arriving at more rational technology-related administrative decisions. (192) See, for example, Final Report, "Technology-Assessment Component of the Comprehensive Planning Assistance Project,’' State Planning Division, Executive Office of the Governor, Lansing, Michigan, December 1972. 177 In the GAAT System, a methodology, whose stated purpose is the analysis and assessment of alternatives, human wants are categorized by four criterion variables called "Human-Want Categories," designated by P, E, F, and J. The value of the "Satisfaction Index S” is derived from the behavioral performance of the System expressed in the respective levels Of categories P, E, F, and J. Described in abbreviated form the categories are: P Provision of material goods and services [individual human being, material concerns] E Quality of the physical Environment [human society, material concerns] F freedom of individual choice, opportunity for self—development and spiritual growth [individual human, non-material concerns] J Quality of the "social environment” -- that is, gustice, rectifi- catory and distributive [human society, non-material concerns] It would be impractical in this study to detail the categories P, E, F, and J beyond what is needed for the demonstration trials to be covered later in this chapter. Content of the categories is exemplified by two different descriptive sets in Appendix B, entitled HUMAN-WANTS CATEGORIES BREAKDOWN. In composite, the criterion variables P, E, F, and J determine the quality Of life. Maximizing this quality for a society requires collec- tive action through social measures, the management of which again dee pends on information. Such information is needed by individuals and family units, as well as by corporate and public bodies. The Satisfac- tion Index is to aid in systematizing such information. Under limited resources the four categories cannot be independently 178 controlled. The highest level of satisfaction will be achieved by balancing among the four categories. Unfortunately, the necessary trade- Offs are complex and subtle. To gain a better understanding of the process, we resort to "Partial Satisfaction Indexes,” as illustrated by Figure 5. The particular shape of the curves shown has little significance; it suf- fices for the moment that the functions increase monotonically, preferably from minus infinity at zero argument, to a finite asymptotic value at in- finite argument. The points on the curves have been arbitrarily located for illustrative purposes only. S'P SF A A + A + ”l.- ‘0‘ AIXP ‘0 —> XF 3 'O .. s P — F C .2 '§ Human-Want Categories X. ‘i- 1 '1 \ 3 S \ f 5‘; A5 J \V + + FIGURE 7. PARTIAL SATISFACTION CURVES. 179 The notation has the following interpretation: Xi = degree of achievement in i-th goal-variable category. (These categories are aggregates of partial goals in each of the P, E, F, J categories. The dimensions Xi are deter- mined by behavioral responses to stimuli which direct actions seeking to satisfy human wants.) Si = a measure indicating how well human wants are satisfied with respect to the i-th category. (Behavioral response to the system determines Si; or, human motiva- tion determines the prevailing value of 51') An adequate quantitative formulation has not yet been developed. What is presented here is only a schematic formulation of the human-wants phen- omenon as it relates to human satisfaction. The simplest useful form of the overall satisfaction index S is perhaps a linear combination of weighted partial satisfactions: 5(P: E: F’J) = GPSP(P) + GESE(E) + QESE(F) + GJSJ(J) : where the o's are constants* representing weight factors attached to the respective categories. The actual weighting will depend on the structure of the decision-making system, and on the backgrounds and characteristics of the decision makers. * This form is of course extremely simple. It excludes interaction among the partial satisfaction indexes. Such interactions can be taken into account in several ways, say by making each partial satisfaction index depend on all the categories, or by allowing some dependence of the o's on the categories. We prefer at the moment the generalization of adding higher terms in the series. For convenience, let Xi represent 180 the generic category (i.e., X1 = P, X2 = E, X3 = F, X4 = J). Then, in Obvious notation, the simple expression is extended to the following series: S(X],X2,X3, 4 TJ 1 1 j j 4 4 4 x ) = Z aiSi(Xi) + Z Z -]2-a..S.(X.)S.(X.) + i=1 1=l j=l where the oi, aij’ . . . . are the weighting factors. This expansion can quickly become unmanageable, and it is an empirical matter to see to what extent it is useful. Figure 8 illustrates how far a given quantity of effort resulting in a change Axi’ the return A31 on any such effort varies with the state of Si for each category. 5. A1 A + v E “U .S C .3 80% *xi a. g; I Human-Wants -3 + Categories 13’ \ "’ H S A51 . . L D’ X _J FIGURE EL RELATIONSHIP OF 51 TO STATE OF HUMAN-WANTS CATEGORIES Xi. 181 In Figure 7, a change in location of any point on the P—curve will automatically cause changes in location of points on at least one of the E, F, and J-curves, under the condition of fixed resources R. In an ideal world all four categories would be simultaneously located indefinitely far to the right in each diagram. Under finite resources, however, increase in one category implies decrease in at least one other category. With functions of the form shown, diminishing returns set in, and as the area Of saturation is approached by one of the variables, relatively greater benefits can be obtained by concentrating effort on one or more of the other categories to maximize the benefit of trade-offs. One strives to raise the level of S; but corresponding effort is re- quired to do so. The entire spectrum of human wants is the basis for the motivation for the efforts necessary to provide given values of the Xi' These efforts naturally will include human thought and physical effort as derived from the prevailing social structure. Effort may consist of sheer human effort, deployment or investment in time and resources, management of the resources, along with utilizing related technologies to the end of attaining higher efficiency or returns. The form of the partial satisfaction indexes implies that human wants are never quite satisfied, even if the world were static. In fact, human experience, change in tastes and preferences, even at fixed resources, cause a continuous shifting in emphasis among the categories and their com- ponents. As a higher state of satisfaction is reached in one category, other categories will become candidates for improvement. Trading-Off will be a continuing phenomenon; by analogy, the process in many respects re- sembles the market exchange of commodities, with bargaining as one of its principal characteristics. It is one of the major objectives of the 182 prOposed scheme to identify and display current situations which prevail for each category, so that the choice among alternatives can be facili- tated, as an aid to the decision-maker, performing as a kind of broker among categories. One other important point now needs to be mentioned, that is, the dynamic or temporal nature of resources, which, over time, tend to move the entire pattern of the four categories upward (or downward). During this movement, a fixed relationship among the categories is usually not maintained. In the aggregate, an increase in resources permits improve- ment in the level of living for an ever-wider spectrum of society. This is illustrated by Figure S). Then one (or more) of the Xi's can be in- creased. Margin of improvement in the level of living due to the application of additional resources FIGURE 9. EFFECT OF RESOURCES ON HUMAN-WANT CATEGORIES. 183 without a simultaneous decrease in the others. The key, obviously, is development of new resources and the appropriate management thereof. Again, provision of information is fundamental to this purpose. Admittedly, monumental difficulties arise in quantifying the four categories, a particular problem with those elements dealing with sub- jective human values, primarily F and J. As a beginning, the proposed evaluation scheme -- simplified for illustration purposes -- will adopt an arbitrary five-point scale. It depicts levels of satisfaction Si for each human-want category, arranged by zones of relative intensity. The factors which determine the intensity have already been touched upon. The scale is illustrated by means of Figure 10. v{/,Saturation("could not be better Off") 1: _/./_2 A (.02/124441.442 / L. __ __ _ H) L (+) 1F 1 Human—Wants Index (0) . >X, i (- -) age --> _IL 277777;]? TTTTTTTTTTT Distress ("could not be worse off") A Satisfaction Index A S-point scale FIGURE 10. LEVELS OF SATISFACTION. 184 5 - point scale ++) High level of satisfaction +) Satisfaction O v ( ( ( Unconcern or indifference ( -) Dissatisfaction (--) High level of dissatisfaction The above scheme is a modest expansion of the even simpler better-off or worse-off grading. Obviously, the scale could be refined as far as one desires. The high (++) range lies below saturation, which is unlikely to occur in any society; in a welfare society, any point materially below the ( -) level is deemed socially unacceptable. A floor is placed above any point of distress, and hence one would have to use restraint in assigning a (--) assessment. Under the proposed scheme, assessments are made by comparing two Or more alternatives. For each such alternative, points are appropriately assessed, which for purposes of analysis can be located on partial satis- faction curves P, E, F, and J. This procedure will help identify trade- off Options which can be followed by suitable adjustments in the respec- tive point locations. Thereafter, the point so arrived at can be trans- posed into a matrix which arrays criterion categories against the various chosen alternatives. This matrix will then yield information regarding the repsective merits of each alternative. At this time the individual assessments of factors P, E, F, and J can not be translated into satisfaction indexes which are rigorously sup- portable. Until further development and refinement occurs, a simple sum of S SE, SF, and SJ will suffice as a crude indicator pointing to pri- P, orities for further investigation. The scheme, primitive as it is, is 185 surely an improvement over what has been available, an improvement toward giving more orderly direction to working with trade-offs and for identi- fying conditions which could raise the level of overall satisfaction, and thence, the quality of life. The scheme can be -- and no doubt will be -- expanded and refined. Rather than attempt at this time to add more to the theory of technology assessment and to the discussion of methodology, it seemed better to try some direct experimentation with the scheme. The rationale for this de- cision is the realization that technology assessment has to be made opera- tional if it is to be of value to anyone but its students. If technology assessment is to become a discipline, or at least a method, one approach is to start from the bottom up. People have to learn to understand it, work with it and become conscious of the benefits to be derived from sys- tematic and deliberate evaluation, assessment, and ordering of available alternatives in terms of their respective impacts. It might further make sense to have people learn by doing, by working with relatively simple assessments, by the device of acting as novice assessors who have been pre- pared through minimal sets of instructional information. (After all, to the present, there are few practiced technology assessors at any level!) This study is primarily concerned with the energy problem as affect- ing and affected by residential utilization and consumption decisions. In- sufficient availability of energy resources to meet demand is with us in the short run, and very likely in the long run. The technology-assessment scheme has been proposed, among its other objectives, for determining how to optimize distribution and utilization efficiency, for guiding most effective development of additional and new resources, and most importantly, for aiding determination of policy. The specific proposal therefore is an 186 attempt to measure well-being by means of satisfaction indexes, limited to regions where energy is especially pertinent. To avoid the need for coming to grips with the difficult problem of having to establish social goals against which to measure progress, we resort to a comparative analysis only. This analysis will lean on the principle of "better-Off or worse-off," the natural phenomenon found in all evolutionary processes, where that which is a little better is adopted, and that which is not so good falls by the wayside. Alternatives The multitudes of residential and related energy uses confront the decision-maker with even larger numbers of alternatives. True, alterna- tives do range outside the residential household sphere--witness: should energy be used for clothes drying in the household, or grain drying on the farm, if there is not enough to go around? Here again, systematic evalua- tion and assessment should lead to more rational outcomes, or at the very least to mutual understanding and a basis for compromise. The proposed assessment scheme attempts to cast the problem into a practiced form for a decision-maker confronted with alternatives as to allocation of energy. Granted, alternatives may have to be first identi- fied and defined by experts from the particular field, yet the proposed scheme itself will help identify suitable alternatives or the lack thereof. One needs a vehicle to determine: (1) how well novice assessors can work with the scheme; (2) how individual assessments correlate; 187 (3) what happens when the assessor is asked to re-assess after a time interval; (4) what is the minimum information required by the assessor in order to achieve results of any use; (5) what direction should be taken by further develOpment of the scheme into a rigorous methodology. As a topic narrowly enough delineated and sufficiently comprehensible to most people, the drying of domestic washables was chosen. The alternatives selected for the first trial were: (1) Do nothing overtly, let the market and price mechanisms handle. (2) Use clothes lines, indoors or outdoors. (3) If drying other than in natural atmOSphere is desired or necessary, use commercial drying. (4) Decrease frequency of laundering. (5) Use disposables in place of washables. (6) Employ technology to optimize dryer efficiency. Domestic appliances for drying clothes and fabrics by direct gas or electric heat are a rather recent technology, about 25 years Old. For decades such methods, on a larger scale, have been employed by commercial laundries. Often, in older coal-fired plants, heat was supplied from steam-heated heat-exchangers. Generally, the principle involved in the mechanical drying of textile materials is moving air through a load under agitation, commonly called tumbling. The air is made hot enough, and therefore dry enough, to take out moisture rapidly and transport it in the form of water vapor. Since the water-holding capacity of air at atmospheric pressure is controlled by temperature, the rate of heat input is mainly what determines the length 188 of drying time. The energy required for changing liquid water to vapor is about 970 Btu/1b. A lO-lb dryweight load of fabrics under normal conditions may contain about 8 1b of water when charged into a domestic dryer, which means 970 Btu/lb x 8 lb = 7,760 Btu of energy required. In actual prac- (‘93) Much of the heat tice roughly twice that amount of energy is taken. goes out through the vent as sensible heat in the exhaust air, some is taken on by the mass of the appliance itself, and some is radiated and converted into the environment; the energy of the motor-drive is dissi- pated; and so on. A small amount is needed to pull the water out of the fabric, i.e., overcome the heat of sorption of liquid water in the fabric. With gas dryers, more of the input heat energy is lost than with electric dryers, because the products of combustion in the drying air already con- tain certain amounts of water vapor. One aspect of domestic clothes dryers commands special attention, namely, the growth rate. In recent years this rate has exceeded 10% annually; it implies new energy demand where before it generally was zero. The 1972 dryer saturation was reported as 51% of wired housing units. The degree of dryer saturation is to be compared with that for washing machines, namely 97%,(194) According to the EEI estimates, a dryer consumes almost ten times the energy that a washer consumes (993 kWhe vs. 103 kWhe, on an annual basis. Noted should be that the clothes washing process actually involves other and additional forms of energy consumption, in pumping (193) PATTERNS OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN THE UNITED STATES, gp,.eit., Table 5, p. 18 lists "technical“ efficiency of energy conversion for gas dryers as 47%, and for electric dryers as 57%. (194) Merchandising Week, 22:.EiE-9 p. 30. 189 water, heating of water, disposing of effluent and the energy content of the chemicals used). For an average of 100 dryer-loads per house- holds per year: 100 loads/households x 15,000 Btu/load (at capacity loads) 12 Btu/yr.(195) For electric dryers the ulti- x 34 million units = 51 x 10 mate energy demand would be something like 50,000 Btu/load. Accurate national data are not available. One study in California gives energy consumption per dryer in the Los Angeles area as 1,000 kWhe/yr.(196) At an estimated average of 5 kWhe/load, this figure is equivalent to 200 loads per year. (195) PATTERNS OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN THE UNITED STATES, _p.. Ci . Table l, p. 6 lists 1968 energy2 consumption (assumed to be ultimate) for clothes dryers as 208 x 102 Btu. (195 ) R. 0. Doctor et a1. ,CALIFORNIA'S ELECTRICITY QUANDARY: III SLOWING THE GROWTH RATE, 9J3. cit. ,Table 17, p. 51. 190 The energy consumed in the clothes-drying process winds up in the environment in the form of thermal loading, i.e., heat. In the case of dryers operated by thermally-generated electricity, the process of genera- tion and distribution Of electric energy entails a loss of heat into the environment, a loss amounting to twice as much heat as is used and emitted by the dryer itself. The thermal generation of electricity also produces chemical pollutants, as does drying by gas where combustion products are emitted into the atmosphere. Environmental impacts from the manufacture must be added. Economic consequences of clothes dryers are by no means negligible. The retail value of the approximately 4 million dryers sold in 1972 was reported as $688 millionf197) To this figure can be added amounts for installation ($200 million), service ($100 million per year), economic cost of energy for operation (perhaps $700 million per year), giving us a total of approximately $1.7 billion per year, or around 0.15% of GNP. This cost brings benefits through the time freed by clothes dryers that is employed in other endeavors, and through the gratification and health- fulness resulting from clean clothing. Factory shipping weight of a dryer averages about 130 1b., including packaging materials, which are mostly paper products. The principal raw material for construction is iron, but other materials are significant: COpper, zinc, aluminum, silver, tin, lead, silicon, nickel, chromium, rubber, and petrochemicals. Energy is consumed in processing, fabricating, distributing, and servicing the product, in an amount crudely estimated at 5 million Btu per unit. Operation may consume on the order of 3 million (197) Merchandising Week, pp, 911., p. 27. 191 to 10 million Btu of primary energy per unit (overall energy demand) annually. Additional amounts of energy will be required for the ultimate disposal or salvage of the product. Domestic clothes dryers in the U. S. are on the borderline between necessity and luxury. Most people around the world resort to a simple alternative: the clothes line, indoors and/or outdoors. Or, as already mentioned, drying may be done otherwise in naturally circulating atmos- pheric air, in the sun, on bushes, shrubbery, lawnchairs, or lawns, It is only in the U. S. and Canada that domestic electric- or gas-heated mechanical clothes dryers have made substantial inroads. With respect to the alternatives listed earlier, Alternative (1). leaving the problem to the market, requires little explanation. It is what has been going on up to now. The market forces have been behind the rapid growth and demand for energy occasioned by the installation of domestic clothes dryers. Their energy utilization varies; as noted, often 50% of the energy input is lost. The trends evident in Alternative (1) are likely to continue unless there is some form of policy intervention. Whether routine upward changes in the energy price will have much impact upon the existing trend is ques- tionable. Compact dryers, more recently on the market to cater to growing apartment and other smaller living units are relatively quite inefficient, and therefore raise per-unit energy demand. Alternative (2), the clothes line, would seem to be most effective in reducing energy consumption. In part, it constitutes direct use of solar energy. Mandatory use of the clothes line would mean either partly or wholly de-activating the 34 million units currently in use. Wash-and- wear fabrics have been developed for use in conjunction with clothes 192 dryers, depending on heat-tumbling for minimum wrinkling, and thereby re- ducing or eliminating ironing. The clothes line may not be practical for the large number of homemakers now in the work force, as explained in Chapter IV . A dryer located next to or near an automatic washer is a convenience -- to give it up would be difficult. Under conditions of growth in urban living, opportunities for access to clothes lines or the like are diminishing. Space and facilities would have to be provided by homeowners or landlords, as indeed they once were by apartment-landlords in the eastern United States. Alternative (3), commercial drying, may be a practical alternative. There was a time when commercial laundries or the clothes line were the only facilities available. Commercial drying technology would likely be much more efficient in view of the scale of operation. Furthermore, commercial operations could use fuels not suitable for the home, such as coal, or could perhaps use surplus process steam or power-plant waste heat. There arise questions of cost, extent of pick-up and delivery ser- vices, and quality. Alternative (4), decrease in frequency of laundering would in fact require social change. Laundering frequency is very high in the United States. Reducing the frequency would result in increased soil accumulation, which would be difficult to handle in current American home-laundry prac- tice. In Europe, the problem is overcome by higher temperatures (95° C), presoaking, and different techniques. In the United States, the water tem- perature ranges roughly from 60° C to 70° C. Soil-removal deficiencies are hidden by extensive use of bleach, which is generally not used in Europe. Bleach is detrimental to some fabrics and to some extent creates environ- mental problems. Generally speaking, lowering frequency of laundering 193 would require changes in practices and equipment in the home, though not in commercial laundering. Alternative (5), use of disposables, would actually be an expansion in current practice that embraces paper napkins, paper towels, tissue handkerchiefs, table coverings, bedlinens (as in hospitals), and so on. The available technology is extensive, and questions center on accepta- bility, cost, and overall energy consumption. Alternative (6), adoption of technology to increase efficiency, may not be a wholly valid alternative by itself, since the application of technology constitutes the application of/or change in resources. All the other alternatives, however, also require some kind of management, which in essence is a component Of resources. A number of options are available for increasing energy-utilization efficiency of domestic clothes dryers through the application of technol- ogy. Among them are: (a) Automatic monitoring devices for modulating heat-input and rate of airflow to no more than actually required for moisture removal from the dryer load. Shut Off the heat at a point where ambient air can do the remainder of the task, thereby utilizing heat stored in the mass of the machine and in the load. (Drying below the humidity level of ambient air is a waste of energy). (b) Recirculate heat, perhaps for water-heating or for pre-heating of air going into the dryer. (c) During the heating season, use exhaust heat in residence (probably not all of the moisture, however). (d) Operate electric dryers off-peak by installing time clocks (which also could time the water heater). 194 (e) Blow unheated ambient air, partly or entirely, through the clothing mass in the mechanical drying process. It was decided to consider only sub—alternatives (a), (b), and (c) with an arbitrary but realistic price tag attached to each. Sub-alterna- tive (d) was considered in Trial Assessment NO. (6) only in connection with Alternative (2). Assessment Trials The assumption was that much could be learned at relatively low cost by some testing of the proposed scheme. With luck, the experiment would yield sufficient information to guide further development. Six sets of assessment trails were carried out. These had to be "quickie" exercises, admittedly quite rough, in order to minimize costs in time and effort. The obvious limitation in such a venture is what participants will of their own free will hold still for. A constraint is that the scheme be simple enough to be executed by novice assessors prepared only through a minimal set of instructions. The nature of the scheme and the state of its development at this time are such that only composite assessments are likely to have any sig- nificance. Theoretically, in the absence of developed and adopted rules, assessments are likely to gain in validity as the number of assessors be- comes large. Assessments made by a single assessor, in the absence of rules, surely could be challenged as representing only the Single view- point Of an individual, an elite rather than a societal judgment. The relationship between the number of assessors required to arrive at a valid 195 composite judgment, and the sophistication Of rules necessary, could be the subject of another inquiry. Trial assessment NO. 1 was given as a task to seven members of the GAAT Group.(198) Most of these, acting as novice assessors, were more or less familiar with the concept of technology assessment, but not especially with the topic of assessment. Several of the members, however, were not familiar with the scheme prior to seeing the instructions for the assess- ment. A copy of instructional information given to the assessor can be found in Appendix C. Summarized by arithmetically combining the seven individual assess- ments, the trial yielded the following (Table 35). (198) GAAT minutes, September 1972. 196 Table 35. Trial Assessment No. l Categories _3 ‘E .5 J_ Igtalf Alternatives (1) Do nothing + 1 - 9L + l + 7H 0 (2) Clothes line - 9L + 11H - 10L + 2 + 2 (3) Commercial laundry + 4 + 6 + 2 + 6 + 18 (4) Cut frequency - 5 + 3 - 8 + 2 - 8L (5) Disposables + 2 - 4 - 3 - 3L - 8L (6) Technology (a) Heat-input control + 8H + 7 + 1 - 1 + 15 (b) Heat recovery + 5 + 8 0 - 1 + 12 (c) Heat house + 2 + 12 + 5H + 1 + 20H H or L, respectively, denote either highest or lowest assessment for each category, or each total. Highest and lowest possible values for each category = 1:14, for each total = 1:56. * Unweighted and unadjusted totals should be viewed only as very crude indicators describing the relationships among categories. Neither can the categories be Optimized individually, nor can they be totaled with- out going through the trade-off process discussed in the text. How to aggregate P, E, E and J formally on any theory of value and yielding usable results is as yet unknown. 197 After an interval of several weeks, the same group was asked to repeat the assessment. Table 36. Categories Alternatives (1) Do nothing (2) Clothes line (3) Commercial laundry (4) Cut frequency (5) Disposables (6) Technology Trial assessments NO. l and NO. (a) Heat-input control (b) Heat recovery (c) Heat house See footnote with Table 35.page 196. The results were the following: Trial Assessment No. 2. |"U [m 6L 8H |"r1 + 9H 4L |C_a 2 are compared in Table NO. 37. * Tota1 + 11H 11H 7L 10 198 or AK I—P IFF + + ION NP m_ 4m 4m mfi + + + .om +1 Im 4m Aev Pesos some toe .e, A F + N + F - _ - F - F + 4m - m + m + be - o + o N + 1m + :5 + m + .flm .mm Im JO— 4. Iw 40 .N .02 use P .02 ucmsmmmmmq :mmzpmn emcezuuo xwgp mm mucmsmuzn mummmcmum cmmzumn pewcm mcp szQmwu apogee mpmuou mmms» .om_ omea.mm o_eee new: oooeoooe mom 4 xcommumo some to» mm2~m> m_nwmmoq pmmzo_ use “mmcme + IF P rm + Im + 1m + 4m 1 4m 1 mmzo: pew: Auv xem>oumc paw: Any Foeucou pzacwupmm: Amy amo_o:;omh mQFDmmoamwo A V A V zucwzomee uau Aev xen::e_ _mwucmaeou A V mee_ moeoo_u Ame meeeooe on A_V mm>wpmccmpF< mmwcqmwpmu .N .02 use F .02 pcmsmmwmmq —mwcp :mm3umm comwceaeou .NM. m_nmp 199 Trial Assessment No. 3 was made by sixteen undergraduate students (Junior and Senior level, science-oriented, actually a class in The History of Science). The instructions were changed from the foregoing in several respects: (1) The technology-assessment scheme was explained in more detail, with illustrations of partial satisfaction curves; (2) categories P, E, F, and J were described by listing of components; and (3) an illustrative exercise was included. The instructions for this trial can be found in Appendix 0. Table 38. 'Trial Assessment NO. 3. Categories E_ _§ E_ J_ Igtalf Alternatives (1) Do nothing '+ 1 - 6L - 1 - 4L - 10L (2) Clothes line — 8L + 8H - 7L 0 - 7 (3) Commercial laundry - 3 + 6 - 6 + 1H - 2 (4) Cut frequency - 4 + 6 - 4 O + 6 (5) Disposables + 3 + 2 0H - l + 4 (6) Technology (a) Heat-input control + 4 + 7 - 1 - 4L + 6 (b) Heat recovery + 3 + 8H - 2 - 4L + 5 (c) Heat house + 5H + 7 - 1 - 3 + 8H Highest and lowest possible values for each category = t 16. Highest and lowest possible values for each total = t 64. * See footnote with Table 35,page 196. 200 Trial Assessment No. 4 was a repetition of assessment NO. 3, re- peated by 9 (haphazardly chosen) out of 16 assessors who had made Trial Assessment No. 3 two months earlier. Identical instructions were given. The result is compared in Table 39, which follows. The data shown are limited to the 9 assessors who repeated; hence the totals are different from those reported for Trial Assessment NO. 3. 201 IAA+ A»... IAA+ .omp mama .mm mpnmh saw: mgocuooy mmm .e .02 ucm m .02 mpcmEmmmmme :mmzumn umctsuuo “A we NewEmush CA uewcm we“ AmAQmAU AAmLmE Ace use mpv mAmHOF « AA+ :N—+ ANA- .NA u. 4v NV IA IA 1 A 1 m + m + m 1 A + m + A - o + m + :0 N + o o - m + m + v - m + m + 40A: IOA + Io— + mm «M mm .02 ucmEmmmmm< AmALh IT. :7. m + m + A+ 0+ m + m + o o 1 A 1 N 1 4m 1 4m 1 4m 1 m + mm mm .mm mpnmh 1 Ahv Amway zoom toeNNA H u Accompmu zoom toe mmzAm> mAQAmmoa pmmzoA wee ummzmA: mmsog pew: Auv Atm>oowg pom: ADV Aoeucoo uachiummz Aav Ame—oczumh Am mmAnemoaon A zucmzcmgm p30 A atu::m_ AmwocmEEou Am mCAA mucquU A mcwguoc co A mm>Apmccmu_< moweommumu 202 Trial Assessment No. 5 was made by eight newer members of the GAAT Group. They were given no written instructions, but only brief verbal ones. Therefore this group should be considered as having been least prepared among the four trial groups. Table .40, Trial Assessment NO. 5. Categories E_ E_ E_ J_ Igtalf Alternatives (1) Do nothing + 3 - lOL - 5L - 7L - 19L (2) Clothes line - 8L + 9 - 3 + 7H + 5 (3) Commercial laundry + 1 + 5 - 5L + 2 + 3 (4) Cut frequency - 5 + 6 O O + 1 (5) Disposables + 7 - 2 + 4H + 3 + 12 (6) Technology (a) Heat-input control + 9H + 10H + 3 + 1 + 23H (b) Heat recovery + 7 + 7 + 1 0 + 15 + (c) Heat house 9H + 7 + 3 + 2 + 21 t 16, for each Highest and lowest possible values for each category total = i 64. * See footnote with Table 35, page 196. Environment and Design). 203 Trial Assessment NO. 6 was made by eight graduate students (in Human Instructions were the same as for No. 3, except that the alternatives were presented in a form requiring the assessment of various, and therefore additional, sub-alternatives, and, after completing the assessment, the assessors were asked to rank the alternatives. of the instructions can be found in Appendix E. Table 41. Categories Alternatives (1) (2) Highest and lowest possible values for each Do nothing Clothes Line (a) Dryers not allowed (b) Use Dryers off-peak (c) Tax dryers (d) Tax energy Commercial (a) Pick up and deliver (b) Take there Cut laundering frequency Disposables (a) Same cost (b) Lower cost (c) Higher cost Technology (a) Heat-input control (b) Heat recovery (c) Heat house * 3 -8L -6 -8L -8L +6H -2 +2 + + + + + + + (DOT-b E 6L \J-h-bN 00 See footnote with Table 35, page 196. Trial Assessment NO. 6 f. 9. 1 + 5H +3 0 -10L -8 -14 - 8 -3 -13 - 8 -8 -20 - 8 -8 -17 O +7H + 9 - 9 -7 -16 -1OL -9L -19 - 5 -4 -15 0 +4 + 7 - 6 -4 -19 +1 +1 +12H - 3 -3 - 3 -1 -1 + 8 A copy Rank Direct Of T Rank 5 12 8 5(2) 7 13 13 9 11 ll 2 6 10 8 12(2) 7 9 5(2) 4 4 12(2) 10 1 1 6 2 3 3 category = t 16, for each 204 Trial-E5perience and Findiggs Summarized The outcome of the trials can perhaps best be understood by looking at three areas: (1) technique, (2) findings, and (3) direction for future consideration and possible development. The proposed technique for the assessment has clearly shown to be workable, in that it was easily and readily handled by the four novice assessor groups. NO matter what the ultimate utility of the assessment, it at least could be carried out. When the participants were given a bare-bones outline of the scheme and a very brief description of the alternatives, they showed no hesitancy in proceeding with the assessment. There were no questions before starting. The participants were sympathetic and interested, and displayed neither fear nor antagonism. Alle§_jg_Allem, the assessment principle which is a part of the scheme appears to have been easily understood and learned quickly. The time taken for the assessment was relatively short, in every case less than 30 minutes including reading the instructions. After the testing a number of questions were raised, and some comments were made as a reaction to having performed the task. None were negative. In carrying out Trial Assessment No. 6, an attempt was made to de- termine whether a ranking (assessment) would correlate with the proposed technique or assessment scheme which, in the case of the reported trials, relies on a 5-point grading plan (see page 183 for details). Grading, of course, does imply some form of ranking. After having completed the assessment by grading the various alternatives with respect to categories P, E, F, and J, the assessors were asked to rank-order the alternatives separately, assigning 1, 2, 3 and so on, to each category. This approach was thought of as a different way to make the assessment. Only one of the 205 participants completed the ranking in this manner, but was much dissatis- fied with it. Others asked permission to Simply rank the 14 alternatives (not by categories). After completing the task, several assessors com- plained about difficulties. They suggested that all that they could do with reasonable assurance was to rank best or worst, and perhaps one or two alternatives. The experience suggests that the grading technique of the proposed assessment scheme is materially superior to ranking from the standpoint of yield of information and ease of management. Repeating Trial Assessment No. 3 (i.e., No. 4) was an uninhibited performance on the part of the assessors. No conscious attempts appeared to have been made to recall the earlier assessment, after a 2-month in- terval. Whether a similar situation prevailed for Trail Assessments NO. 1 and No. 2 is not known, because the assessors were not kept under sur— veillance while doing the assessment. Summarized data Obtained through the trials are presented in Table 42. It should be emphasized that the data, other than the repeat pairs (No. 1 and No. 2, No. 3 and No. 4), are not comparable because of some changes in the instructions given to the assessors. These changes were made in an attempt to find ways to improve the process. Although these aggrega- tions of assessment judgments can have only limited significance at the present state of development of the scheme, the findings do give certain indications. The application of technology was the preferred alternative for reducing energy consumption. Without trade-offs, this result can be expected as a natural outcome. This approach optimizes personal freedom in that the individual is permitted maximum choice in disposing of his income. He can so pay for technological features which permit him to 206 Table 42. Summary of Data. Trial NO. 1 No. 2 NO. 3 NO. 4 NO. 5 N3; 6 Alternatives (1) DO nothing 0 - 6 —12L -20L -19L 0 (2) Clothes line + 2 +11H(2) -10 + 1 + 5 (-16L) (a) no dryers —14 (b) dryers off-peak -13 (c) tax dryers -20 (d) tax energy '17 (3) Commercial +18 +11H(2) - 2 +-1 + 3 (- 3) (a) pickup + deliver + 9 (b) take + fetch -16 (4) Cut frequency - 8L - 7L - 2 -4 + l -19 (5) Disposables - 8L - 1 + 3 + 2 +12 (~13) (a) same cost -15 (b lower cost + 7 (c) higher cost -19 (6) Technology (a) heat-control +15 + 3 +12H +11H +23H +12H (b) heat recovery +15 + 5 + 7 + 4 +15 - 3 (c) heat house +20H +10 +11 +11H +21 + 8 H and L represent highest or lowest values for each assessment. No. 2 was a repeat of No. 1 No. 4 was a repeat of No. 3(No. 3 was actually done by 16 assessors. Above data is an aggregation of only 9 assessments made by the same 9 assessors who did No. 4. Aggregate totals for No. 3 representing 16 assessors differ somewhat, but not significantl , from above. For details see Table 38. Trial Assessment No. 3, p. 199 . Figures in parentheses in Column No. 6 indicate averages of sub-alternatives for Alternatives (2), (3), and (5). The above data are unweighted totals. The reader is again referred to the footnote accompanying Table 35, Trial Assessment NO. l, p. 196, which ex- plains the limitations on any possible use of the data presented. 207 enjoy the use of a more energy-efficient dryer. The price tags attached to the Technical Alternatives (6) (a), (b) and (c) were realistic, and evidently not so big as to create a significant deterrent. That is, when dealing with such relatively small dollar amounts, the price-demand factor is relatively inelastic. The Alternative (1), "do nothing) appears as the least attractive one, which elicits no surprise as being the "worst" alternative, as against the use of technology labeled as "best.” Assessment of Alternatives (2) "clothes line", (3) "commercial", and (5) "disposables", became more defini— tive when several sub-alternatives were added. Making the clothes line mandatory by specifically excluding or limiting the use of clothes dryers was viewed very negatively. This reaction points up the need for evalu- ating other competing energy uses in (recall example: clothes drying vs. grain drying). Commercial drying was assessed as being much more attractive when connected with services. Economic effects became clear in Trial Assessment No. 6 in connection with disposables. Alter- native (4), a reduction in laundering frequency, can only be construed as a material reduction in the level of living, i.e., a decline in the satis- faction of human wants. TO find out how precisely the individual assessors would duplicate their respective assessments, Assessment Trials No. 1 and NO. 3 were repeated. Marked shifts in assessments can be observed between Trials No. l and No. 2, Showing lesser emphasis on the (6) Technology Alternative and greater emphasis on Alternative (2), the "clothes line." Shifts among Alternatives (3) and (4) were of lower magnitude, yet significant. Corre- lation among Trials No. 3 and No. 4 turned out to be better. One explana- tion may be that this group had more detailed and specific instructions, 208 as well as an illustration of the scheme through a simple example (see Appendix 1), Exercise No. 1 in the instructions, p. 240). Negative emphasis on Alternative (1) increased in intensity, positive emphasis on Alternative (2) also increased in intensity; both shifts were in a direction which could be expected. Otherwise only slight changes are Observed. Some inconsistencies are difficult to explain, and need further investigation. What must be considered is that the inconsistencies encountered between No. l and No. 2, and between No. 3 and No. 4, re- spectively, may be attributed to a situation similar to the effect of pre-testing on post-test performance in learning, a somewhat contro- versial issue, well documented in the literature.(]99) Performing one assessment builds experience which is likely to affect any succeeding assessment -- the learning process at work. Reflecting on the problem over time is bound to cause a change in how things are viewed. A body of data clarifies itself. This Observation would suggest that the assessment scheme provide for repeat assessments in order to improve reliability. The foregoing remarks concerned with learning point up an important finding, namely, that the proposed scheme appears to have substantial merit as a heuristic device for education and public enlightenment. The already-mentioned facility for a novice readily to understand the scheme lends support to the argument. If the assumption is correct, the scheme could be particularly useful in rationalizing energy utilization where the (199) James Hartley, THE EFFECT OF PRE-TESTING ON POST-TEST PERFORMANCE, in International Science 2 (1973), pp. 193-214. 209 education process must constitute an important element in effecting better - utilization of available energy resources. Looked at in this light, the potential value of the proposed scheme takes concrete form. The scheme is a manner of bookkeeping to identify and to order areas of possible trade-Offs. It can point to undesirable consequences of actions, as related to other actions, that are of particular importance when employing technology. The scheme is explicit with respect to alternatives within the limitations imposed by its current state of development. What becomes apparent as an outcome of the trials is that the device (1) permits looking at broader sets of criteria, and jogs orderly thinking about complex problems, (2) demonstrates a method for comparing existing and potential alternatives, and (3) promises to form a basis for reaching a consensus toward solutions. As an analytic device it goes at least one step beyond tacit or ignored factors. Subject to some further trials, it can perhaps even serve to predict the outcomes of alternative options, and as a consequence could affect changes in behavior. A distinct lack of uniformity among individual assessments and also among categories can be observed. Such lack of uniformity is more pro- nounced in the F and J categories, as surely is to be expected. F and J are made up of intangible values, whereas P and E are made up mostly of tangible values. Inconsistencies tend to decrease as the assessor is given more information. These observations are of course only superficial. To make a determination of any precision would be an impossible task in view of the nature of the trials and their structuring. Random. questions among the participants elicited the suggestion that it is imperative for the assessor to understand the problem in depth in order to achieve higher values of uniformity. It was suggested further that the rules for 210 the assessments be made explicit. Further experimentation would be necessary to determine whether adoption of these suggestions would provide greater uniformity among assessors. In addition to the above response, the trials prompted questions and comments touching upon the following areas: (1) Weighting. Several participants felt that in order for the assess- ments to be useful, weighting was necessary. (2) Components of categories. A clear listing of components was suggested, perhaps related to (1) above. (3) Matrix - Trade-off balance. The format for the earlier trials con- tained a bottom line on the matrix asking for a trade-Off balance. The intent was for the assessor to arrive at a summary assessment for each category. Some Of the assessors questioned this process as a meaningless exercise. In contrast, the matrix itself was regarded as useful. (4) Definition Of the given alternatives was considered insufficient. For example, it was suggested that disposables be explained as cloth- ing, bedlinens, towels, and so on; that relative economic costs be stated; and further, that some information be provided to tell whether disposable items were as attractive as conventional ones, and finally whether the items were made from natural or synthetic (presum- ably fossil-base) materials. (5) A time horizon was strongly demanded. It was argued that a short-run plus might be a long-run minus or vice versa, requiring assessment and evaluation in two or more time spans. (6) The use of trend-direction rather than absolute values as used in the 5-point system, was suggested for trial. Under this suggestion the (7) (8) 211 trend direction is to be qualified by an indication of trend velocity or the like. A discussion of pros and cons for each alternative prior to making an assessment was asked for. For example: on the one hand, dryers pro- vide convenience, flexibility, save time and effort, permit choice of time for doing the job, reduce need for ironing, and so on; on the other hand, dryers consume energy and other resources to produce and keep in operation, take space, impose economic costs, create environ- mental problems, and so on. Primary vs. higher-order impacts are in need of definition. There was agreement that the scheme should limit itself to first-order impacts at the present scale of study, and that higher-order impacts be identified and listed separately. The comment receiving most emphasis was number (4). Hidden under re- marks concerning economic costs are, no doubt, questions concerning energy costs (in terms of energy resources). There is a relationship between the two, but they cannot be equated. Offhand, for purposes of making assess- ments, it would appear wise to maintain a distinction, if the argument for better utilization efficiency has any merit. This subject is also a can- didate for further study. SUMMARY Two areas have been covered by this study. One area is a general overview of the energy situation in the United States together with an examination of the wide-ranging spectrum of direct and indirect energy utilization by households. The other area develops a proposed manage- ment scheme potentially useful for the identification and ordering of alternatives with respect to factors which contribute to the quality of life. Additionally, the scheme could be used for purposes of education. The first part of the work calls attention to salient aspects of energy-demand, -supply, and -price, as well as the outlook therefor. Here the fact was sought out that price implications have in the past been given only meager consideration in their effect on supply and de- mand. The notion of "conservation" as it relates to the study was dis- cussed and, it is hoped, clarified. Some of the social forces which underlie the growth of energy consumption have been touched upon. In sum, the review indicates that long-term demand and supply trend-lines have crossed circa 1970, and that the price of energy can be expected to rise rapidly in relative as well as in absolute terms. The shortfall is referred to by some as the "energy gap," or "energy delta (AE)." AE in this case is the negative differential between potential demand or expectancy and potential supply or availability as it has developed since about 1970. 212 213 These relationships are graphically described in the accompanying figure which is reproduced from the body of the text. ’1‘ Expectancy \a/ QUANTITY / AE ./ /,/’R 4’ Availability Supply Demand Ca. 1970 TIME AE represents real but unfulfilled desires on the part of members of society. Over time, the expectancy Of consumers and/or the availability of energy forms have to adjust, but the cost in social cohesion may be ex- cessive, indeed even disastrous. To balance expectancy and availability over time, three forces in combination can be counted upon: (1) market, (2) public policy, and (3) technology. The effectiveness of this trio in creating and retaining social cohesion will depend on the understanding of the people and on the level of technical knowledge. For peacetime, the problem of large-scale inability of the system to provide for the availability of important physical resources to reasonably satisfy expectancy is relatively new. The problem consequently lacks a base of understanding and information with respect to effective and equit- able remedies. Suitable tools for the management of the task have not yet been developed. When energy resources were abundantly available, need for planning for the contingency -- predicted by some as early as two decades ago -- was not given a high enough societal priority. The substantial 214 number of demand projections made by various agencies largely ignored price as a factor. The energy problem is far-reaching and complex. To accomplish any- thing at all, this study had to be limited to one specific area. The major options which society can resort to for reconciling supply of and demand for energy are: (l) finding new energy resources not now known, (2) expanding upon present sources of supply, (3) improving conversion efficiencies, (4) unilaterally reducing demand via social measures (re- ducing the standard of living), and (5) bettering utilization efficiencies of "end-uses." We concentrate on option (5), which has appeal because its effects could be realized relatively soon, its economic and social costs could be relatively small, its effects on the environment could be only beneficial, its effects on the quality of life need not be detrimental, and finally, it embodies greater certainty of delivery. In dealing with option (5), near exclusive emphasis was placed on the _ residential or household sector. It is in this utilization sector, where many, if not most, of the decisions are made which not only control the demand originating within that sector (about 1/5 of the total United States demand), but also influence to various degrees the demand originating from the other sectors, that is, Industry (including Agriculture), Commerce, Transportation, and Energy Supply. The decisions which are made by mem- bers of family units in the form of social choice appear to be the over- riding control. Yet, it is within the family units where such decisions are at present least amenable to management which effectively rationalizes available resources and their utilization. The major thrust of the study was therefore devoted to the multitudes of energy utilization by family units. Information on uses and use-practices 215 was assembled to form a data base, necessary for the development of the management scheme proposed in the second part of the work. The broad aspects of energy utilization in the household: residential environment and amenities, home equipment, and transportation peripheral to the household are described, at the same time pointing to possibilities for efficiency-improvement. A substantial section was devoted to the thermal- comfort phenomenon, primarily because almost 30% Of the total energy con- sumption in the United States goes for satisfying the human wants with respect to thermal comfort. In sum, this part described how energy is utilized by family units in the United States. The second part of the present work is more specifically concerned with the decisions made by family units with respect to energy resources and their utilization. An attempt is made to rationalize these decisions by means of improved management methods. The search for such a method re- sulted in an examination of the technology-assessment principle. Exten- sively modified for application at micro-level, the concept was enlisted as a basis for the development of a scheme simple enough for manipulation by novice assessors. Rather than undertaking the most complex measurement against yet unformulated social goals, assessment is done in a comparative manner by using a simple "better-Off" or "worse-off" arrangement, analogous to what is occurring in the natural selection processes. The scheme is proposed as an aid to the decision-maker enhancing his ability to make more rational choices among alternatives. Depending on the nature of the energy-use alternatives, a certain degree of expertise is required to choose and de- fine appropriate alternatives. 216 The scheme proposed for carrying out micro-assessments was tested by engaging novice assessor-groups in making certain trial assessments. The vehicle employed is a selected number of alternatives for domestic clothes drying. The test disclosed that the highest-order preference was the use of technology to increase energy utilization efficiency the dryers, an understandable response. The lowest-order preference among the options was letting market forces handle the situation, again an understandable re- sponse. The micro-assessment attempted by means of the trials is of course only a primitive first step toward our ultimate goal, namely to devise methods for aiding decision-makers to choose among alternative technical strategies designed to improve the quality Of life. The chief virtue of the attempt is that it demonstrates the willingness and the ability of members of the society to try to assess the impacts of alternative strategies taking into account what is intended to be a complete set of societal goal categories. Thus the first steps have been taken toward rationalizing choice with respect to objectives that are often held to be supra-rational. The chief shortcoming of the attempt is not the inadequacy of the assessors or of the exposition presented to them -- these matters can be studied and surely improved. The basic deficiency is that although all the human- want categories (P, E, F, J) have been considered, the constraint of limited resources (R) has not properly been taken into account. For in- stance, it has been assumed that any energy resources demanded by con- sumers for the drying of household washables will be provided; the assess- ment has ignored possible alternative demands for perhaps the same energy resources for different purposes, say for grain drying. There is, to be sure, an implicit relation through the cost of the energy consumed, but there is no display of the alternative usages forgone. 217 If the human intellect were more powerful, these usages could be visualized and taken into account directly. Since this is not the case, we shall instead attempt to make this reckoning by a hierarchy of assess- ments, in a kind of dynamic programming. Let us suppose then that we have carried out several sets of mierg;_ assessments of a large number of tOpics. We shall have at hand a pre- ferential ordering of alternatives for each topic. These sets of order- ings become the subject of an assessment at the next higher level; let us call this assessment a mini-assessment. In this higher-order process, some effect of the constraint imposed by limited resources will be implicit. For in simultaneously considering the several topics of the mini-assessment, the competition for resources will be evident. In the simplest case, we should have to consider only the most preferred alternative in each micro- assessment; but it may turn out that the drain on resources in selecting the optimal or preferred choice in a given micro-assessment precludes selecting the optimal choice from one or more of the other topics. Hence various groupings of choices among the alternatives from the topics will have to be considered. In principle, all combinations should be examined. This procedure may prove impractical; if it does, one may have to resort to various tricks, as in dynamic programming. For a beginning, let us hope a first approximation may suffice. The mini-assessments themselves may still be too limited; in that event one may have to resort to a still higher level of assessment, we will call super-assessment, wherein a wider universe Of topics is covered; and so on, until perhaps at still higher levels the ideal of a master- assessment is reached. In another way of speaking, our micro-assessments achieve a sub-optimization. The hazards of such processes are well known. 218 But sub-optimizations themselves are at least capable of being carried out, and if they are fed into subsequent sub-optimizations at successively higher levels with sufficient caution, they promise to be a practical ineans of elucidating the ultimate consequences of selected alternatives. In its essence, the scheme consists of a method for evaluating basic human-wants categories (and their components) in terms of their role in determining outcomes of action (or inaction) designed to maximize the quality of life as signaled by a satisfaction index. It is agreed that any such categories would have to be suitably weighted in combining them into a meaningful composite which has the capability to describe a state Of the quality of life; in our special case, it relates to people's using -- or not using -- energy resources to that end. Such weighting has been side-stepped in this study so as to avoid undue complexity at this initial stage of development. The usefulness of the scheme -— if it is developed further, particu- larly in the area of factor-weighting and rules -- could be far-reaching. Improvement in "end-use efficiences" of energy consumption in the residen- tial sector could be a first and significant contribution. At the least, benefits are possible from using the proposed scheme as a device for education and public enlightenment concerning the order in which available options are preferred by consumers of energy resources (or the order of any other consumer choices). The scheme is also seen as a device for sup- porting decisions made by engineers, administrators, and politicians con- cerned with exploitation or allocation of resources via technology. Interested readers are invited to support or participate in its further development as a new method leading to more rational decisions concerning the utilization efficiency of available resources. 219 In his WASHINGTON MEMO, Michigan Senator Philip A. Hart, suggests among other matters that " . . . Congress should establish a broadly repre- sentative joint committee on energy in which all of the competing claims could be weighed side by side. Today, concern for the energy dilemma is split among countless committees and sub-committees."(200) No known methodology exists which could effectively do what has been underlined in the above quotation. The micro-, mini-, super- and master- assessment scheme proposed as an outcome of this study is suggested as a tool to help the process toward Senator Hart's goal, as well as similar goals in matters of high importance and significance throughout the social structure. 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Genevieve J. Knezo, SOCIAL SCIENCE POLICIES: An Annotated List of Recent Literature, Congressional Research Service, Library of Congress, Washington, July 8, 1971 and Addendum dated August 4, 1971. F. P. Linaweaver, Jr. et_al., A STUDY OF RESIDENTIAL WATER USE, Federal Housing Administration, WEShington, D. C., USGPO 1967. , SURVEY OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION PROJECTIONS, Committee on Interior and Insular Affairs, U.S. Senate, S.R. 45, Ser. 92-19, USGPO, Washington, 1972. J. C. Moyers, THE VALUE OF THERMAL INSULATION IN RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION: Economics and the Conservation of Energy, Oak Ridge National Laboratory Report, ORNL-NSF-EP-9, Dec. 1971. , CITY WORKERS FAMILY BUDGET FOR A MODERATE LIVING STANDARD, Autumn 1966, Bulletin 1570-1, U.S. Dept. of Labor, Bureau of Statistics. L. L. Liston and C. L. Gauthier, COST OF OPERATING AN AUTOMOBILE, Suburban-Based Operation, U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, April 1972. STATISTICAL ABSTRACTS OF THE UNITED STATES, various years. HISTORICAL ABSTRACT OF THE UNITED STATES, Historical Times to 1957. 225 PERIODICALS AND NEWSPAPERS President Richard M. Nixon, in an Energy Message to the United States Congress, June 29, 1973 (as reported in the Detroit Free Press, June 30, 1973 . AGA Monthly, February 1973, American Gas Association, New York. Richard G. Stein, SPOTLIGHT ON ENERGY CRISIS: How Architecture Can Help, AIA Journal, Vol. 57, NO. 6, June 1972. T. E. MacNall and R. G. Nevins, A CRITIQUE OF ASHRAE COMFORT STANDARD 55—66, ASHRAE Journal, Vol. 13, No. 1, Jan. 1971. Ralph G. Nevins and A. Pharo Gagge, THE NEW ASHRAE COMFORT CHART, ASHRAE Journal, Vol. 14, No. 5, May 1972. Eugene R. Ambrose and J. L. Reynolds, AN INVESTIGATION OF ELECTRIC SPACE CONDITIONING FOR MOBILE HOMES, ASHRAE Journal, Vol. 14 NO. 11, NOV. 1972. Roderick R. Kirkwood, President, American Society of Heating, Refrigerating, & Air-conditioning Engineers, in ASHRAE Journal, 15, No. 6, June 1973. Lorne W. Nelson, REDUCING FUEL CONSUMPTION WITH NIGHT SET-BACK, ASHRAE Journal, Vol. 15 NO. 8, August 1973. F. H. Rohles and R. G. Nevins, THE NATURE OF THERMAL COMFORT FOR SEDENTARY MAN. A. P. Gagge, J. A. J. Stolwigk, and Y. Nishi, AN EFFECTIVE TEMPERATURE SCALE BASED ON A SIMPLE MODEL OF HUMAN PHYSIOLOGICAL REGULATORY RESPONSE, ASHRAE Transactions, Vol. 77, part l, 1971. Jerome B. Wolff, PEAK DEMAND IN RESIDENTIAL AREAS, in Journal of American Water Works Association LIII, October 1961. Edgar S. Cheany and James A. Eibling, REDUCING THE CONSUMPTION OF ENERGY, in Battelle Research Outlook, Vol. 4, NO. l, 1972. , SWIMMING POOLS, Changing_Times, Vol. 27, NO. 4, April 1973. , FREEZERS, Consumer Reports, April 1946. , WASHING MACHINES, Consumer Reperts, October 1947. , REFRIGERATORS, Consumer Reports, June 1949. , DISHWASHERS, Consumer Reports, November 1971. , COLOR TELEVISION, Consumer Reports, Vol. 38, No. 1, Jan. 1973. , REFRIGERATORS, Consumers Union Reports, Vol. 1, No. 3 July 1936. + WASHERS, Consumers Union Reports, Vol. 2, No. 4, May 1937. 226 , HEATING EQUIPMENT, Consumers Union Reports, Vol. 2, No. 8, October 1937. . 1973: THE YEAR THE LITTLE CAR SHOWED DETROIT HOW BIG IT IS, Detroit Free Press, December 23, 1973. , CENSUS SHOWS LATEST FUEL PREFERENCE DATA, Electrical World, January 1, 1973. Christopher T. Rand, THE ARABIAN FANTASY, HARPER'S, January 1974. Milton 0. Rubin, WASTE NOT, WANT NOT, IEEE Spectrum, Vol. 10, NO. 1, January 1973. , RECOMMENDED PRACTICE FOR RESIDENCE LIGHTING, prepared by the Committee on Residence Lighting Of the IES, Illuminating Engineering, August 1953. John O'Grady, Vice-President Fieldcrest Corp. and Paul Shook, General Manager of Consumer Products, CASCO Division, Sunbeam Corp., Investors Reader, November 1973. James Hartley, THE EFFECT OF PRE-TESTING ON POST-TEST PERFORMANCE, in International Science 2, 1973. Berlon C. Cooper, A STATISTICAL LOOK AT THE FUTURE OF LIGHTING, Lighting Design & Application, Vol. 1, No. 1, July 1971. , ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND DESIGN PRACTICES, Lighting Design and Application Forum, in eightingeDesign and Application, Vol. 2, No. 8, August 1972. 1973 Statistical Marketing Report, Merchandising Week, Feb. 26, 1973. Paul A. Samuelson, From GNP to NEW, Newsweek, April 9, 1973. Peter Chapman, NO OVERDRAFTS IN THE ENERGY ECONOMY, New Scientist, May 17, 1973. Robert Reinhold, MEW or NEW, How Does The Economy Grow? in New York Times, Sunday, July 29, 1973. John W. Wilson, RESIDENTIAL DEMAND FOR ELECTRICITY in Quarterly5Review of Economics and Business, Vol. 2, NO. 1, Spring 1971, University of Illinois, Champaign. , THE ENERGY CRISIS: Time for Action, TIME Magazine, May 7, 1973. , Study by the Chase Manhattan Bank, concerning petroleum resources quoted in U.S. News and World Reports, February 19, 1973. , Wall Street Journal, March 20, 1972, citing reports from AGA, the API and the CanadiGHTPetroleum Association. 227 M. A. Adelman, HOW REAL IS THE WORLD OIL SHORTAGE? Wall Street Journal, February 9, 1973. , article concerning MGIC Investment Corp., Wall Street Journal, March 14, 1973. MISCELLANEOUS , BECHTEL BRIEFS, Vol. 28, No. 1, Jan. 1973, Bechtel Corp., San Francisco. R. 0. Doctor, THE GROWING DEMAND FOR ENERGY, Rand Corp., P-4759, Santa Monica, Cal., Jan. 1972. R. 0. Doctor e§_al,, CALIFORNIA'S ELECTRICITY QUANDARY: III. SLOWING THE GROWTH RATE, prepared for the California State Assembly with Support of the NSF, R-lll6-NSF/CSA, Rand Corp., Santa Monica, 1972. Robert T. Dorsey, in a letter published in LIGHTING, DESIGN AND APPLICATION, Vol. 3, No. 3, March 1973. Anne E. Field, A STUDY OF WATER CONSUMPTION PRACTICES IN HOUSEHOLDS, Unpublished doctoral dissertation, Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan, 1973. Senator Philip A. Hart, in his WASHINGTON MEMO, November 1973. Lyndon B. Johnson, Speech at Commencement Exercises, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, May 22, 1964. From a Talk by Reginald H. Jones, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, General Electric Co., Cincinnati, Jan. 17, 1973. , Wall Street Journal, March 22, 1973 quoting William G. Kuhns, President of General Public Utilities Corp. John G. McLean, Industrial Oil Co. is a newspaper advertisement ENERGY AND AMERICA, Wall Street Journal, Nov. 30, 1972. Conversation with man in charge of the labeling program, Melvin R. Meyerson, National Bureau of Standards, November 8, 1973. Governor William G. Milliken, Special Message to the Michigan Legislature on Energy, Lansing, November 26, 1972. M. Jack Snyder and Cecil Chilton, PLANNING FOR UNCERTAINTIES: Energy In The Years 1975-2000, in Battelle Research Outlook, Vol. 4, NO. l, 1972, Battelle Memorial Institute, Columbus. Unpublished remarks by Mr. Stein under the heading of The Optimization of Lighting Energy, at an IES Symposium in New York, November 28, 1972. 228 Genevieve K. Taylor, November 15, 1962, unpublished talk before the 40th Annual Agricultural Outlook Conference, reporting on a study done at the Equipment Laboratory, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Clothing and Housing Research Division, Beltsville, Md. Thomas McVeigh, SOCIAL INDICATORS: A Bibliography, Council of Planning Librarians, No. 215, Monticello, 111., Sept. 1971. , LIGHTING, Encyclopedia Britannica, 1972, Vol. 14. , ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND GNP in the U.S., An Examination Of A Recent Change In Relationships, National Economic Research Associates, Inc., New York/Washington, 1971. GAAT minutes, September 1972. Final Report, Technology-Assessment Component of the Comprehensive Planning Division, Executive Office of the Governor, Lansing, Michigan, December 1972. Environmental Research and Technology, Inc., Lexington, Mass. National Research Associates, Washington, D. C. Information from the Superintendents of the Water & Light and the Sewage Disposal Plants, Lansing, Michigan, May 1973. Booklet: FUEL CONSERVATION MADE EASY, How To Save Fuel And Keep Warm, distributed by General Electric Co., Consumer Institute Bridgeport, Conn., no date given. Booklet: HOME HEATING, Better Buymanship - Use And Care, published by Household Finance Corp., Chicago, 1947. Letter from Gerald W. Foster, Home Building Products Division Owens- Corning Fiberglass Corp., Toledo, March 7, 1973. Letter from Henry Omson, Director, Standards Division, MHMA, Chantilly, Va., dated April 13, 1973. Letter dated February 23, 1973 from Joel Popkin, Assistant Commissioner, PRICES AND LIVING CONDITIONS, U. S. Dept. of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Conversation with Jeanette Lee, retired Dean, College of Human Ecology, Formerly College of Home Economics, Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan, Jan. 19, 1973. Conversation with Dr. Robert Summitt, Chairman, Department of Metallurgy, Mechanics and Materials Science, Engineering College, Michigan State University, East Lansing. Dr. Summitt is an expert on light and color, and is currently developing materials for a course in lighting oriented to undergraduate students in Human Ecology and Engineering. Study: ELECTRIC SPACE CONDITIONING IN NEW YORK STATE, Department of Public Service, Albany, New York 1971. APPENDIX A APPENDIX A: ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN THE UNITED STATES BY END USE 1960-1968. Percent Of Sector and Consumption* Annual Rate National Total End Use 1960 - 1968 Of Growth 1960 - 1968 Residential Space Heating 4,848 6,675 4.1%/year 11.3% 11.0% Water Heating 1,159 1,736 5.2 2.7 2.9 Cooking 556 637 1.7 1.3 1.1 Clothes Drying 93 208 10.6 0.2 0.3 Refrigeration 369 692 8.2 0.9 1.1 Airconditioning 134 427 15.6 0.3 0.7 Other 809 1,241 5.5 1.9 2.1 Total 7,968 11,616 4.8 18.6 19.2 Commercial Space Heating 3,111 4,182 3.8 7.2 6.9 Water Heating 544 653 2.3 1.3 1.1 Cooking 98 139 4.5 0.2 0.2 Refrigeration 534 670 2.9 1.2 1.1 Airconditioning 576 1,113 8.6 1.3 1.8 Feedstock 734 984 3.7 1.7 1.6 Other 145 1,025 28.0 0.3 1.7 Total 5,742 8,766 5.4 13.2 14.4 Industrial Process steam 7,646 10,132 3.6 17.8 16.7 Electric drive 3,170 4,794 5.3 7.4 7.9 Electrolytic processes 486 705 4.8 1.1 1.2 Direct heat 5,550 6,929 2.8 12.9 11.5 Feed stock 1,370 2,202 6.1 3.2 3.6 Other 118 198 6.7 0.3 0.3 Total 18,340 24,960 3 9 42.7 41.2 Transportation Fuel 10,873 15,038 4.1 25.2 24.9 Raw materials 141 146 0.4 0.3 0.3 Total 11,014 15,184 4.1 25.5 25.2 National total 43,064 60,526 4.3 100.0% 100.0% * Trillions of Btu Note: Electric utility consumption has been allocated to each end use. Source: , PATTERNS OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN THE UNITED STATES, Office of Science and Technology, Executive Office of The President, USGPO, Washington, January 1972, p. 6. (Stanford Research Institute, using Bureau of Mines and other sources.) 229 APPENDIX B APPENDIX B HUMAN-WANTS CATEGORIES BREAKDOWN Set I P Economic production, input and output as measured by the National Income and Product Accounting System (GNP), physical aspects only of Food Clothing Shelter Communications (technology) Health (medical care) Domestic security (fire, police, and other means) Cultural activities (religion, education, the arts and sciences) International (military and diplomatic) includes net export of goods and services Capital investment and transportation of goods and services in support of the above is included in the components. E As a result of action under P, degree of Exploitation, manipulation or depletion of natural or earth resources Resulting quality Of (1) air, (2) water, (3) land and soil, (4) noise, and (5) visual aspects. Reversible or irreversible effects F Is all about the individual self who benefits from and/or pays the cost of actions under P and impacts under E. F deals with the amount of control the individual or family may be subjected to, by other than natural events. 230 231 Least social control, formal or informal Wide choice among, and access to, goods and services produced under P Work where wanted for individual or family Live where wanted for individual or family Play where wanted for individual or family Maximum communications opportunities (personal part not under P) Control over disposal of income and investment Optimum opportunities for self—development, physical, mental and spiritual Is all about collective action, society and the social structure including social values, positive or negative, as derived from the social structure. Preventive and distributive justice is a part of this Dimensions the conditions under which the individual has decided that the benefits of collective action outweigh the costs, there- fore, collective action is preferred over individual action for purposes of attaining higher levels of living. J dimensions the breadth Of access to, and the equity of distribu- tion, of the ingredients of I listed below: Wealth and income derived from P activities (a) disposable income (b) investment for future income Consumption of goods and services (produced under P) Employment opportunities in P activities Living amenities (housing, for example) Cost attached to J (taxes, for example) Cultural opportunities, religion, education, the arts and sciences (includes recreational) Social opportunities (includes public affairs and political participation) Health services Both technology and energy are involved in all of the above as 232 resources. * Set II P Provision of material goods and physical services to individuals Components Sustenance —- food and drink Shelter against the elements Clothing Security against living creatures (human and non-human, domestic and foreign) Health -- preventive measures and curative measures Material appurtenances for recreation, entertainment, cultural fulfillment Transportation, energy. and communications are regarded as contributing to the above. E Quality of the material environment Components Air ) . . . . . (pur1ty Wlth respect to chemical, rad1o-act1ve, Water ) biological, and particulate contaminants) Soil Control of noise and vibration Control of insults to the eye and nose Control of electromagnetic radiation (microwave, infrared, and x-ray) F Freedom and self-fulfillment of the individual Components Desirable variety with respect to items of P and E Lack of restrictions with respect to items P and E * From a proposal to the GAAT Group by D. J. Montgomery, Sept. 19, 1973. 233 Freedom from control over disposal of income and possession Freedom from social and cultural controls Desirable variety of jobs Desirable variety of education J Justice, rectificatory and distributive (as Aristotle had it) Components Equal access to Opportunity to enjoy items of P and E Access to jobs Access to education Freedom of religion, Speech, assembly Protection from oppression (de jure and de facto) Participation in government APPENDIX C APPENDIX C MICRO-TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT Pilot Test Case: Domestic Clothes Drying The idea in this exercise is to find out in crude form whether the "GAAT System" for estimating impact of various alternatives has any merit, i.e. how will evaluations made by various individuals jibe? Domestic clothes dryers are a relatively recent innovation and are in the gray area between luxury and necessity. Background information: 34 million units in use = 50% saturation 4 million sold in 1972, retail value $ 688 million Installation = 100 Service = 200 Cost of operation = 680 Contribution to economy in 1972 $1,668 or 0.15% of GNP Average weight = 130 lb/unit including packaging materials derived largely from petroleum products. Energy content in manufacture = 5 million Btu/unit. Estimate average 200 loads/year, using 20,000 to 50,000 Btu/load, about 0.5% of total U.S. energy resource consumption aggregated. Electric dryers outsell gas dryers 3 : l and use about 1,000 kWh/year (washing machines use about 100 kWh/year). Energy input into a dryer is almost completely lost into the environment. 234 235 Given 6 alternatives: (1) do nothing, let market forces handle (2) clothes line, domestic dryers which consume energy resources are not allowed (3) commercial drying where energy consumption is rationalized due to operation to scale and using best technology (4) reduce laundering frequency, say wear or use washables twice as as long as conventional (5) use disposables, assume less energy is consumed overall than when using dryers (6) employ technology to (a) install moisture-sensing devices in all dryers so that no energy is wasted in overdrying; modulate heat input to rate of moisture removal (additional cost $25/unit) (b) use partial heat-recovery mechanism so that energy consumption is cut by 50% (additional cost $100/unit) (c) use heat for house heating during winter months (additional cost $lOO/unit) Use 5-step valuation scheme as illustrated with partial satisfaction- curve on next sheet. PARTIAL SATISFACTION-CURVE S A. 236 indicating 5-step scale Saturation ("could not be better off") 1\ (++) I/A‘zé (112/1 4471/1/44! / i (+) 1e <0) I Satisfaction Index r/////// / 5-point scale / Human-Wants Index >x1 Distress ("could not be worse off") Alternatives __ UI EL (3) I41 (5) 1631 Tfibl 1601 Impact Criteria P E F J Trade-Off balance APPENDIX D APPENDIX D MICRO-TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT: DOMESTIC CLOTHES DRYING S = f(P + E + F + J) where S = index of §atisfaction, i.e. quality of life P = Provisioniif goods and services (physical volume of -) E = finality of the material Environment (level of -) F = (level of -) Freedom and Opportunities for self-fulfillment for the individual J = (breadth of available -) social and distributive gustice, i.e. quality Of the social environment. P, E, F and J are a set of interrelated criterion variables. They are in effect social goals and can be visualized by 4 Partial-Satisfaction Curves (points on these curves have been arbitrarily placed for illustration purposes only. Moving one point affects the location of the other three). P 5F A A + A +- x — 0‘ >Xp "0 *9 XF ~§ - .. p - F c O 13 ‘3 Human-Want Categories X. 1 .22 6 > +4 SE a“; A \/ + + 237 238 P, E, F and J in more detail: P is about the equivalent Of the P in GNP, but is concerned only with physical artifacts and means, energy, communications and transportation utilized in the process. food, beverage and tobacco clothing and shelter (the human environment) health security equipment and facilities for recreation, entertainment and cultural activities E is the level of environmental quality, usually controlled by P air water soil or land visual and audio phenomena Note: the substantial difference between reversible or irreversible effects on E and created by P needs to be taken into account. F is all about the individual self who benefits from and/or pays the costs of actions under P and impacts under E. F means the Optimum (O) or minimum (M) as indicated. (M) social control, formal or informal rules (0) choice among, and access to, goods and services from P (0) latitude of choice of working where wanted, living where wanted, and playing where wanted (0) degree of mobility (personal transportation not under P) (0) level of communications opportunities (personal, part not under P) (M) control over disposal of personal income and investment (0) level of opportunities for self-development, physical, 239 mental and spiritual J is all about collective action, society and the social structure, including social values, positive or negative, as derived from the social structure. J dimensions the conditions under which the individual has decided that the benefit of collective action outweighs the costs, therefore is preferred over individual action for purposes of attaining higher levels of living. J is the social environment J dimensions the breadth of access to, and the degree of equity in distribution of: wealth and income derived from P activities (a) disposable income (b) investment for future income consumption of goods and services (produced under P) employment Opportunities in P activities living amenities (housing for example) costs attached to J (taxes for example) cultural opportunities, religion, ) education, the arts and sciences ) social Opportunities, includes ) includes recreational public affairs and political participation) health services 240 51 Technology Assessment Evaluation Scheme u{/,Saturation ("could not be better off") 1: 3.0.2.4 ((14/14444411111 / ’ _ Ii x1 Human-Wants Index > Satisfaction Index ///////// Distress ("could not be worse off") r 5-point scale (++) intensive satisfaction, could not be better off (+) satisfaction (0) unconcern (no effect one way or the other) (-) dissatisfaction (--). intensive dissatisfaction, could not be worse off, distress. Note: in a welfare society this condition is not likely to OCCUY‘. Exercise No. 1 Restricting the use of automobiles to reduce fuel consumption: (1) do nothing, let market forces handle fuel and engine H.P. (2) taxes to restrict consumption (3) ration fuel to the individual 241 Alternatives 1 2 3 Impact Criteria p E F J Trade-off balance Name Student NO. Technology Assessment Exercise #2: Alternative to domestic clothes dryers. Background: Domestic clothes dryers are a relatively recent innovation and are in the gray area between necessity and luxury. 32 million units used in 50% of the U.S. households. 4 million units sold annually. Approximate retail $170 ea. Contribution to P -— manufacturing, distribution, service and operation- is about 0.15% of all energy consumed in the U.S. Per load, a dryer uses 10 x the energy used by a washing machine. Practically all of the energy input a dryer is lost into the environment. Given 8 alternatives: (1) do nothing, let market forces handle (2) clothes line, domestic dryers which consume energy resources are not allowed (3) commercial drying, where energy consumption is rationalized due 242 to Operation to scale and using best technology (4) reduce laundering frequency, say, wear or use washables twice as long as conventional (5) use disposables, assume less energy is consumed overall than when using energy for drying (6) employ technology to (8) install moisture- sensing devices in all dryers so that no energy is wasted in overdrying; modulate heat-input to rate of moisture removal (additional cost is $25/unit) (b) use partial heat—recovery mechanism, so that energy consump- tion is cut by 50% (additional cost is $100/unit) (c) use heat for house-heating during winter months (additional cost $100/unit) Alternatives (l) (2) (3) (4) ISL L6a) (6b) (6c) Impact Criteria P E F J Trade-off balance Name Student No. APPENDIX E APPENDIX E MICRO-TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT: DOMESTIC CLOTHES DRYING S=f(P+E+F+J) where S = index of Eatisfaction, i.e., measure of the "quality of life" P = Erovision on goods and services (physical volume of --) E = quality of the material Environment (level of--) F = Ereedom and opportunities for self-fullfillment for the individual (level of--) J = social and distributive gustice, i.e., (breadth of available--) quality of the social environment. P, E, F, and J are a set of interrelated criterion variables. They are in effect social goals and can be visualized by 4 Partial-Satisfaction Curves (points on these curves have been arbitrarily placed for illus- tration purposes only. Moving one point affects the location of the other three). 243 244 SP SF A A A + i 5’ c - H p _ F C O 13 8 Human-Want Categories X ‘5 A: 1 \— .P “x 1* +1 SE J 3 A WV + + -0- \.fi: _0, \X / I J P, E, F, and J in more detail: P is roughly the equivalent of the "P” in GNP, but is concerned only with physical artifacts and means, energy, communications and transportation utilized in the process. food, beverage and tobacco clothing and shelter (the human environment) health security equipment and facilities for recreation, entertainment and cultural activities 245 E is the level of environmental quality, usually controlled by P. air water soil or land visual and audio phenomena Note: The substantial difference between reversible or irrever- sible effects on E and created by P needs to be taken into account. F is all about the individual self who benefits from and/or pays the costs of actions under P and impacts under E. F means the optimum (O) or Minimum (m) as indicated. (M) social control, formal or informal rules (0) choice among, and access to, goods and services from P (O) latitude of choice of working where wanted, living where wanted, and playing where wanted (0) degree of mobility (personal transportation not under P) (0) level of communications opportunities (personal, part not under P) (M) control over disposal of personal income and investment (0) level of opportunities for self-development, physical, mental and spiritual J is all about collective action, society and the social structure, including social values, positive or negative, as derived from the social structure. J dimensions the conditions under which the individual has decided that the benefit Of collective action out- weighs the costs, therefore is preferred over individual action for purposes of attaining higher levels of living. 246 J dimensions Of the breadth of access to, and the degree of equity in distribution of: wealth and income derived from P activities (a) disposable income (b) investment for future income consumption of goods and services (produced under P) employment opportunities in P activities living amenities (housing for example) costs attached to J (taxes for example) cultural opportunities, religion, education, the arts and sciences includes recreational social opportunities, includes public affairs and political participation health services 247 Technology Assessment Evaluation Scheme IMP Saturation ("could not be better off") T .32.; .2 L/JL/Jéé/J/z/L/Z / x1 Human-Wants Index :a’ Satisfaction Index __,L /7/777;/7“" '- __._ "T Distress ("could not be worse off") S-point scale (++) intensive satisfaction, could not be better off (+) satisfaction (0) unconcern (no effect one way or the other, indifference) (-) dissatisfaction (--) intensive dissatisfaction, could not be worse off, distress, Note: in a welfare society this condition is not likely to occur. Technolggy Assessment No. 1 Restricting the use of automobiles to reduce fuel consumption. (1) do nothing, let market forces handle fuel and engine H.P. (2) taxes to restrict consumption (3) ration fuel to the individual 248 Alternatives 7T 2 3 Impact Criteria p E F J Trade-off balance Technology Assessment #2: Alternatives to domestic clothes dryers. Domestic clothes dryers are a relatively recent innovation and are at pre- sent in the gray area between necessity and luxury. 32 million units are used in 50% on the U.S. households 4 million units sold annually. Approximately retail $170 each. Contribution to P -- raw materials extraction, manufacturing, distribution, service and operation -- is about 0.15% of GNP. Energy used in manufacture is about 5 million Btu/unit. In operation, the dryer uses 20,000 to 50,000 Btu/load, at 200 loads/year this is about 0.5% of all U.S. energy consumption. Per load, a dryer uses 10 x the energy used by a washing machine. Practically all of the energy input into a dryer is lost into the environ- ment (impact on E). Note that P, E, F, and J essentially represent social goals. Make an assessment of 6 given alternatives, in some cases based on different assumptions. Consider short-run impact only (5 years approximately). (1) (2) (3) (5) (6) 249 Do nothing, let market forces handle consumer choice Clothes line (a) Domestic clothes dryers which consume energy are not allowed (b) Can use clothes dryers only at certain hours (off peak) regulated by time-clocks (c) Tax clothes dryers to discourage use (d) Tax energy to discourage use Commercial drying or clothes line (a) Picked up and delivered (b) Must take to and pick up from laundry or depositories Reduce laundering frequency; say, wear or use washables twice as long as is now conventional practice Use disposables, clothing, bed linens, towels etc. Assume less energy is consumed overall than when using energy for drying. Also assume that under this scheme clothing is reasonably fashionable (a) Economic cost is same as conventional (b) Economic cost is 15% less (c) Economic cost is 15% higher Reduce energy consumption through technology (a) Install moisture-sensing devices in all dryers SO that no energy is wasted in overdrying; modulate heat-imput to equal rate in overdrying; modulate heat-imput to equal rate of moisture remov- al from load (additional cost is $25/unit) (b) Use partial heat-recovery mechanism, so that energy consumption is cut by 50% (additional cost is $100/unit) (c) Use heat for house-heating during winter months (additional cost is $lOO/unit) 250 Criteria P E “F Impact Alternatives (1) (2) (a) 251 Simply indicate under each criterion heading your numerical ranking of alternatives. In other words, which of the impacts are most signifi- cant in their rank order 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, ...... GO as far as you wish, but assign at least 5 ranks, a total of at least 20 entries. Criteria P E F J Impact Alternatives (1) (2) (a) (b) (C) (d) (3) (a) (b) (4) (5) (a) (b) (C) (6) (a) (b) (C) Your Name ”'111111111111111111111))111111111s