CHOICE OF PERFORMANCE mnex FOR THE 0mm CONTROL or MACROECONDMC SYSTEMS , Thesis for me Dégree mm o. MICHIGAN STATE UNIVERSITY JONG - GOO PARK 1973 . __ 4...._—‘~ This is to certify that the thesis entitled CHOICE OF PERFORMANCE INDEX FOR THE OPTIMAL CONTROL OF MACROECONOMIC SYSTEMS presented by Jong-goo Park has been accepted towards fulfillment of the requirements for Ph. D. degree in Economics Major professor 0-7639 basic r: Problem: to anal: the pr0< garding Specifie Performa when a C for whie iRVerSe FTOQeSS state Va formanCe Case whe ABSTRACT CHOICE OF PERFORMANCE INDEX FOR THE OPTIMAL CONTROL OF MACROECONOMIC SYSTEMS By Jong-goo Park The specification of a performance criterion is one of the basic requirements for the formal analysis of quantitative decision problems. In macroeconomic policy problems, in particular, in order to analyze the quantitative impact of a given set of policy decisions, the procedure should be based on the policy maker's preference re- garding the developments in his economy. Such preferences are specified by a performance index in the analysis. The purpose of this thesis is to analyze the selection of the performance index by solving the inverse optimal control problem. When a closed-100p system with a known control policy is given, the inverse optimal control problem is to determine performance indices for which the given control rule is optimum. A sufficient condition is developed for the solution of the inverse problem for a linear discrete-time multi-control regulatory process (the main concern of the regulator problem is to keep the state variables near a fixed target zero), with a quadratic per- formance index. An explicit solution is obtained for a Special case where the performance functional does not contain the control variables, and the result is further extended to a linear tracking problc‘ the st adapte: unique are fa: conditi inverse tion f0 perform. stabili; Whose a: from the Planning the dEte 3031 var back Con 1 can be m. the Humbe deMonstrz 80613 in the mEtI'IC policy mg Jong-goo Park problem (an important feature of the tracking problem is to make the state variables track the changing targets), which can be easily adapted to the macroeconomic regulation problems. It is shown that the solution of the inverse problem is not unique in general, which implies that the optimal control policies are fairly robust against different performance indices under the conditions stated above. Also, it is found that the solution of the inverse problem for a linear regulator holds true without any modifica- tion for the linear tracking problem. Finally, the developed techniques for the selection of the performance criteria are illustrated through a macroeconomic stabilization policy model with a quadratic performance functional whose arguments consist of the deviations of the policy goal variables from their target values during the discrete time period of a finite planning horizon. The illustration highlights three main points: the determination of the steady-state values of the trajectories of goal variables which are under control, the computation of the feed- back control policy, and the construction of a performance index. It is shown that the number of the policy goal variables that can be made to attain the prescribed steady-state values is equal to the number of the control variables in the model. It is also demonstrated that the relative weights given to the competing policy goals in the performance index can be quantitatively determined by the method of the inverse optimal control problem for a dynamic policy model. CHOICE OF PERFORMANCE INDEX FOR THE OPTIMAL CONTROL OF MACROECONOMIC SYSTEMS By Jong-goo Park A THESIS Submitted to Michigan State University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY Department of Economics 1973 tion res: so many the most me. My Dr. Robe 0f Michig fig .9; .‘s a...) ACKNOWLEDGMENTS (5.“ During the course of my graduate studies and disserta- tion research and writing, I received invaluable assistance from so many people that I regret I can name here only those who were the most generous in their time and energy to guide and encourage me. My deepest appreciation goes, therefore, to Dr. Anthony Koo, Dr. Robert Rasche, Dr. William Haley, and Dr. KwangYun Lee, all of Michigan State University. ii II III IV Chapter I II III IV TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF FIGURES INTRODUCTION ECONOMIC APPLICATIONS OF OPTIMAL CONTROL THEORY Optimal Growth Models Development Planning Models Short-Run Economic Policy Models Consumer Choice Problems Theory of Firms Portfolio Selection Pollution Control Problems Hr—IHHHHp—a \loxmrwap—I DESIGN OF CONTROL SYSTEMS AND THE INVERSE OPTIMAL CONTROL PROBLEM 2.1 Performance Index 2.2 Feedback Control 2.3 Inverse Optimal Control Problem THE INVERSE OPTIMAL CONTROL PROBLEMS -- LITERATURE SURVEY 3.1 Inverse Control Problem for the Continuous- Time Systems 3.2 Inverse Control Problem for Discrete-Time Systems THE INVERSE CONTROL PROBLEM OF DISCRETE-TIME 'MULTIVARIATE CONTROL SYSTEMS 4.1 The Solution of a General Inverse Problem 4.2 The Solution of a Class of Inverse Problem 4.3 The Inverse Optimal Control Problem in Macroeconomic Policy Models iii Page 16 16 18 21 27 27 43 47 47 52 57 VI APPLICATIONS OF THE INVERSE OPTIMAL CONTROL TO MACROECONOMIC MODELS 5.1 A Single-Control Model 5.2 Two-Control Model CONCLUSIONS AND RESEARCH RECOMMENDATIONS 6.1 Summary of Conclusions 6.2 Recommendations for Further Studies BIBLIOGRAPHY APPENDIX iv 62 64 73 79 79 80 82 94 Figure 10. Figure 10. LIST OF FIGURES ReSponses of System (5.4) with Zero Control Responses of System (5.4) under Control (5.17) Optimal Feedback Control for Price Stabilization Responses of the System (5.4) under Control (5.21) Optimal Feedback Control for Interest Stabilization Responses of System (5.3) with Zero Control Responses of System (5.3) under Control (5.24) Optimal Feedback Control for Price Stabilization Responses of System (5.3) under Control (5.27) Optimal Feedback Control for Full Employment Page 65 69 7O 72 72 74 76 76 78 78 .— —_ understa making. and ofte fall in to Study its perf various . ChOOS Ing Outcome. eCGnomet rules an the vari further erate Ce mks ma. am Some approach mEthad. SPECify ( INTRODUCTION Recent trends in control theory deal with the fundamental understanding of large scale systems and decentralized decision making. Economic processes, which are characterized by complex, and often unknown relationships among their constituent components, fall in this class of problems. The research tools of optimal control theory can be used to study the dynamic responses of the economic system and to evaluate its performances. Most of the economic decisions consist of examining various actions together with their associated consequences, and choosing the particular action which would generate the most desirable outcome. Such elementary decision making could be improved by using econometric models for the purpose of examining various decision rules and their associated results in terms of the trajectories of the variables generated. The decision making process could be further improved by specifying some performance functional to gen- erate certain optimal decision rules because the ad hoc decision rules may not be optimal for certain reasonable performance criterion and some better rules might be discovered by the optimal control approach which would otherwise remain unnoticed by the elementary method. The performance criterion, in essence, enables one to Specify a desired response toward which the system is Optimized. In order only mus system, desired which pe between difficul problems uniquely can be d fol‘mance formance freCluent to be CD called n control cmtrol . indiceS °f Pouc- lem is t we ights asS'Ociat In order that a performance index be generally applicable, it not only must reveal the performance characteristics of the optimal system, but also must enable the decision maker to choose what the desired characteristics of the Optimum system should be. In practice, however, the actual process of selecting which performance measure is to be used to "measure the distance" between a desired trajectory and its approximation is a major difficulty. That is, any mathematical criterion in practical control problems is rarely explicit enough to define the optimum system uniquely, and consequently even when a realistic performance index can be defined, it is often found that the basic concept of a per- formance index is too restrictive. In this case, it is hardly expected that a certain per- formance index can be generally agreed upon. In fact, it is frequently argued that the choice of the performance functional to be optimized is subjective and arbitrary. This poses the so- called "inverse Optimal control problem" -- instead of seeking a control rule corresponding to a given performance index, one can try to determine all performance criteria, if any, for which a given control rule is optimal. In macroeconomic regulation problems where the performance indices are, in general, of the quadratic form in the deviations of policy goal variables from their target values, the inverse prob- lem is to find, given economic policies, the relative "welfare" weights to be given to the competing policy goals and "costs" associated with the control policies. eral if i for crit the Spec. the c trust those using former additi. SYstemE SOIUtic eXplici By solving the inverse problems, one may discover gen- eral prOperties shared by all optimal control policies. Further, if it can be discovered that there exist many performance indices for which a single control policy is Optimal, then the preceding criticism about the choice of performance index is irrelevant since the important aSpects of optimality will hold independently of the Specific choice of a performance index. Also, as the inverse optimal problem is the Opposite to the optimal control problem, the solution of the inverse problem must distinguish between control policies which are optimal and those which are not, and perhaps disclose practical advantages of using specific control policies in combination with Specific per- formance indices. AS the inverse Optimal problem is a relatively new addition to the theoretical and methodological repertories of the systems science and is more so for the social sciences, no general solution of the inverse problem is yet found. In particular, the explicit solution of the inverse problem is not known for the discrete-time, multi-control regulatory processes. Considering the fact that the market framework of the economic system is working through the myriad individual decisions, and the economic problems are generally formulated in terms of discrete-time difference equations, it is desirable for the economists that the solution to the inverse problem be found for the discrete- time, multi-control systems. The purpose of this thesis is to solve this subclass of the inverse problem and to demonstrate the applicability of the solution new insi includes to the C that an dynamic Cussion problem. problems linear d Five 11} t0 Sane VOIVeS a for fur: solution to macroeconomic regulation models, and thereby to derive new insights for the economic policy manipulations. The outline of this study is as follows. Chapter One includes some examples of the applications of optimal control theory to the economic field. The main concern of the chapter is to Show that an economic regulation process can be viewed as a multi-Stage dynamic optimization process. Chapter Two contains a brief dis- cussion on control system design and the significance of the inverse problem. Chapter Three presents a literature survey of the inverse problems. In Chapter Four, the solution of the inverse problem for linear discrete-time multi-control systems is develOped. Chapter Five illustrates the applications of the results in Chapter Four to some simple macroeconomic regulation problems. Chapter Six in- volves a summary and conclusions and suggests some recommendations for further study. applicat is conce time. and micr per per (3) Sim Of (4) Con (5) dyp (6) mu] (7) dyn output 0. CHAPTER ONE ECONOMIC APPLICATIONS OF OPTIMAL CONTROL THEORY Recently optimal control theory has found substantial applications in economics, because much of modern economic theory is concerned with optimal behavior of economic decision units over time. Principal applications of control theory in macroeconomic and microeconomic problems have been: (1) growth models for analysis of expansion of economies over long periods of time; (2) planning models for sectoral allocation of resources over periods of time; (3) short-run economic models for the study of short-run effects of economic policies on macroeconomic goals; (4) consumer choice problems over the household life cycle; (5) dynamic models of investment and pricing by firms; (6) multiperiod portfolio analysis models; and (7) dynamic models of a number of sectors including water resources and banking. 1.1 Optimal Growth Models The central problem of these models is the division of output over time between consumption and investment so that some measure such a m F(K) at equipmen ment I: of capit t0 furtt. Posit10r F and equation be the S of the C measure of social welfare is maximized. A simplified version of such a model is as follows. Suppose that in a simple economy, the stream of output F(K) attainable from the services of a given stock K of capital equipment are allocated into consumption flow C and gross invest- ment I: F(K) = C + I . (1.1) In turn, after deduction of provision for replacement of capital equipment at a rate of OK investment expenditure leads to further accumulation of capital stock: K=I-6K,(-=—'). (1.2) Also, aggregate saving rate S(t) describes the com- position of output at each moment: I(t) = S(t) F[K(t)] . (1.3) Physical considerations impose the constraints: C 2 O , I 2 O , O s s s 1 . (1.4) Equations (1.1) - (1.4) constitute, for given functions F and s and given initial condition K(O) = KO, a differential equation describing the economic system. Let N J = g U[C(t)] exp(-a t)dt (1.5) be the social welfare criterion accurately reflecting the desires of the community, where U(°) is a Specified smooth, concave, positive social r S(t) we straints capital 3 standa (Stolerr Burmeist 1.2 Dev the choi primary Planning positive welfare function and a, a non-negative constant, is the social rate of time preference. If the society by choosing proper S(t) wants to attain the maximum value of J, subject to the con- straints, (1.1) - (1.4) and at the same time maintain the terminal capital stock equal tots prescribed value KN’ then the solution of a standard problem in the Optimal control theory is required (Stoleru, 1965; Lele, et.al., 1971; Shell, 1967; Sakakibara, 1970; Burmeister and Dobell, 1972). 1.2 Development Planning Models The development planning models are also concerned with the choice between consumption and investment over time, but the primary focus is on the sectoral allocation of investment over the planning period. Since the development programs, in general, emphasize the overall economic growth as well as the intersectoral consistency of the projects, the planning models are usually formulated in complex nonlinear constraints including sectoral production functions and capital accumulations and the overall resource constraints to each sector. Also, as the development plan involves the changes in the composition of aggregate supply and demand in the economy over the planning period, the performance indices optimized by the planning models are customarily specified to be additive over both various consumption goods and time. 1) Here the numerical control theory methods are employed to facilitate the solution of the complex dynamic models (Arrow, l ) For example, the Conjugate Gradient Method (Lasdon, et.al., 1967). et.al., and Tayl 1.3 Shci policy t that pol an accep which he macroec; 0f, for ment, pr 80a} var i“Strume multiph (aggI'Ega 1’ andg (inveStn. littome C et.al., 1970; Little, 1969; Levhari, 1969; Simon, 1956; Kendrick and Taylor, 1970). 1.3 Short-Run Economic Policy Models These models are concerned with the choice of economic policy to best regulate and stabilize the economy. It is assumed that policy maker has a model of the economy that he believes is an acceptable representation of the structure of the economy and on which he will base his policy decisions. With difference equation macroeconomic models in general, focus of the study is on the use of, for instance, fiscal and monetary policies to control unemploy- ment, price fluctuations, and balance of payments. The main idea of such a study is to steer the policy goal variables close to the targets by choosing appropriate policy instruments. As an illustration (Turnovsky, 1973), consider a problem of determining government expenditures for regulating a standard multiplier-accelerator model. The system comprises the aggregate demand equation: Z = CY + I + G (1.6) (aggregate demand Z is broken down into consumption cY, investment I, and government expenditures G); the flexible accelerator: I = a? - kI (1.7) (investment is an exponentially declining weighted average of past income changes); and the output adjustment equation for the aggregate excess demand: where Y over where expendi Where level 0 q1(Y - I these 0' Positiv. equally Cost of cOSts. be ing at may be S 1964; Ph NQrman, 1971; Tu‘ I = r(Z -Y) , (1.8) where c, a, k, r are positive constants with O s c s 1. From (1.6) - (1.8), the evolution of national income Y over time given values of G and G is derived as follows. Y+blY+b2Y-b3G-rG=O, (1.9) where b1, b2, b3 are constants expressed in terms of c, a. k, r. Now the policy maker is assumed to control government expenditures so as to minimize some objective functional, .J-f(Y Y2+F(C 62+N (Y 172 q2(G - (5)2 + n(G)2}dt where Y and G. are some desired level of income and associated level of government expenditures respectively. The terms, q1(Y - E)2 and q2(G - G)2 are losses incurred by being away from these Optima. The fact that these are quadratic implies that positive and negative deviations from desired levels are weighted equally and are increasingly costly. The term n(G)2 denotes the cost of changing fiscal policy and can be described as adjustment costs. f1(YN - E)2 and f2(GN- G)2 measure the terminal costs of being away from the targets. In the above problem, it is possible that the government may be subjected to limits on the amount of its expenditures (Theil, 1964; Phillips, 1954, 1957; Pindyck, 1972; Erickson, et.al., 1970; Norman, 1971; Livesey, 1970; Chow, 1970, 1972; Fischer and Cooper, 1971; Turnovsky, 1973). 1.11 Cons as choos divided I human ca earnings income 1 and the during t possesse stock us the Cons (capital where F the On 1} hUman Ca value of Individu Problem 10 1.4 ConSumer Choice Problems The consumer choice problems characterize the individual as choosing a time path of his available time (or energy) to be divided between earning (by renting human capital) and investment in human capital so as to maximize the present value of lifetime earnings. Following Haley (1973), then the individual's disposible income in any period is the difference between his earnings rE(t) and the cost of input used for the investment in human capital rK(t) during that period, where E(t) is total stock of human capital possessed by the individual at time t, K(t) the human capital stock used as input to the human capital investment at t, and r the constant rental rate per unit of time on the human capital stock (capital markets are assumed to be perfect). The human capital stock grows at a rate governed by S(t) = F[K(t)] - 5E . (1.10) where F(K) is the flow of investment at time t attainable from the only input of human Capital stock and 6, a constant rate of human capital depreciation. Assume that the individual wants to maximize the present value of his disposible earnings over the life cycle: N J = (I; r[E(t) - K(t)] exp(-at)dt , (1.11) where N is the end of the earning life cycle and a, the constant individual time preference rate. Then the general form of the individual optimization problem is to maximize the objective functional (1.11) Subject to and the Staf 1.5 devel integ by Chc 1972). in the variabl IS asSU tion of financir (0 0, E(t) :» K(t) , and at the same time to keep the positive human capital stock at the end of the earning period (Hakansson, 1969; Haley, 1973; Stafford and Stephen, 1972; Yaari, 1964; Ben—Porath, 1967). 1.5 Theory of Firms Various dynamic models for the theory of firm have been developed. Let us consider a firm which seeks to maximize the integral of the discounted profit flows over the planning period by choosing optimal level of capital stock in each period (Leland, 1972). If growth permits better achievement of the firm's goal in the future, capital stock K is one of the key decision variables for the firm. Following most dynamic formulation, it is assumed that the rate of change of capital stock, K, is a func- tion of current profits P . This formulation describes a self- financing firm which reinvests all or a positive fraction (0 < a s l) of its profits. Then, the problem is given by the following. In a dynamic environment, the firm will maximize N -6t [I e - P(K,L)dt L. II subject to K aP(K,L), O < a S 1; K(O) = K0 ... a given initial capital stock; whe EJFCN et.4 Zabe 1.6 selec his u retur Samue proble invest Zt is Prob {2 $1 inve period. that p wealth, going in SUbject . HO agi 12 where t is a constant discount rate, L is labor input for the production of the firm, and N is a fixed terminal time. (Arrow, et.al., 1958; Hakansson, 1970; Lucas, 1967; Thompson, et.al., 1971; Zabel, 1967). 1.6 Portfolio Selection The individual and/or firm is faced with the problem of selecting a portfolio of bonds, stocks, and cash that will maximize his utility function defined over the probability distributions of returns generated by the various portfolios. For instance, Samuelson (1969) considers an individual's portfolio selection problem, postulating the existence of a risky asset that makes $1 invested in, at time t, return $1 Zt after one period, where Zt is a random variable subject to the probability distribution, Prob {2t 5 z} = p(z), z 2 0, along with the safe asset that makes $1 invested in it at time t return $l(l + r) at the end of the period. Yields at different time are assumed to be independent so that p(zo,zl,...,zN) = p(zo)p(zl)...p(zN). The problem is to find the Optimal fraction of total wealth, at, that should be put into the risky asset, with 1 - a I: going into the Safe assets, at each instant of time. Specifically, Max J = E {Ct,at} t ntntz (1 + p)-tU(Ct) 0 subject to the wealth constraint, _ -1 ct — wt - wt+1 [(1 - at)(1 + r) + atzt] , WO 8 given value, and = C w5+1 where l sumptior individt con5umpt dynamic 17 PO: sumptior macroecr PrOduces (Sector ment, maximiz tion Of planflin u1~9nts b fUncm0 fro“, C0 to hem fiCIEnt alOng H l3 WN+1 = 0 (no bequeating of wealth at death), where U(Ct) is the individual utility function depending on con- sumption C at time t, p a constant discount rate, Wt the individual's wealth at t, and E an "expectation" operator. This problem is solved simultaneously for optimal saving- consumption and portfolio-selection decisions over time using a dynamic programming method. (Hakansson, 1969; Merton, 1969). 1.7 Pollution Control Problems Haurie, et.al. (1972) analyze Optimal policies of con- sumption and of pollution control in an economy using a two-sector macroeconomic planning model. It is assumed that one sector (Sector 1) of the economy produces good Y to be consumed or invested and another sector (Sector 2) produces good Z used exclusively to purify the environ- ment. Since in this problem there are two conflicting goals -- maximization of consumption flow and minimization of the accumula- tion of pollution generated in the production processes -- over the planning period, the policy maker faces the allocation of invest- ments between two sectors in each period such that the objective function including the weighted sum of social benefits derived from consumption and the social cost of pollution accumulation is to be maximized. Emphasis is given to the following. By taking a Suf- ficiently long interval of time, an Optimum path may contain an are along which the pollution and per capita consumption are maintained constan criteri per car policy cost at subject polluti Where 14 constant. If such an arc is uniquely defined for each performance criterion which gives different relative weights (A, 1 - X) to per capita consumption and cost of pollution, it is possible for policy maker to choose a particular weighting based on a long-term cost effectiveness,analysis. Formally, the problem is to maximize _ N -6t H '6t J - k g e c dt + (1 - x) $ e p(x3)dt , O S k S 1, subject to the constraints of capital accumulations in two sectors, pollution accumulation and the per capita consumption equations: x. I 1 — uly — (d +-n)x1 x2 = u2y - (d +'n)x2 x3 = G(Ly, Lz) - r x3 x _ _ __1. ___ . c - (1 - u1 u2)u3f1(u3), 0 5 U1 S 1, 1 1,2,3, 111 + u2 S 1, where xi (1 = 1,2) is the capital stock in sector 1 (measured in terms of total labor (L) unit), x3 is quantity of pollution agents accumulated, ui (i = 1,2) is the gross investment in sector 1 (measured in terms of good Y), u3 is the prOportion of labor engaged in Sector One, y is production of Y (measured in total labor unit), 2 is production of 2 (measured in total labor unit), c is per capita consumption, n is a constant rate of labor force increase, f( G( economi Optimiz inverse inverse to have to dISCI ChHpter 15 d is a constant rate of capital depreciation in both sectors, f(°) is production function of Sector One (homogeneous of degree one), G(') is pollution generating function with §%-> O, §%'< O for all Y 2 0 and Z 2 O, I r is a constant rate of natural elimination of pollution, p(x3) is the social cost of pollution. The main concern of this chapter was to Show that an economic regulation process can be viewed as a multi-stage dynamic optimization process. This permits one to discuss meaningfully the inverse Optimum control problem in the economic field, because the inverse problem starts with a given control rule which iS assumed to have already been obtained in the optimization process. Before examining the inverse problem formally, we need to discuss some aspects of the control system design in the next chapter (Chapter Two). 2.1 an ad perty the e tions the Sp to the ment 0. This 3: PErform w'Ill'ch t CHAPTER TWO DESIGN OF CONTROL SYSTEMS AND THE INVERSE OPTIMAL CONTROL PROBLEM 2.1 Performance Index In modern control system design, it is emphasized that an admissible control must have, in addition to the stability pro- perty, an optimizing prOperty in some sense, for example, minimizing the error of the system under control or satisfying certain Specifica- tions of accuracy and speed of performance of the system. In the design of control systems, the starting point is the System Specification. This includes a description of the input to the system and the desired response. Also included is a state- ment of the basis on which the system performance will be judged. This statement is in the form of a performance index. That is, the performance index enables one to Specify a desired response towards which the system is optimized. In order that a performance index be generally applicable, it not only must reveal the performance characteristics of the Optimal system, but also must enable the designer to choose what the desired characteristics of the optimum system should be. The actual process of selecting which performance measure is to be used to "measure the distance" between a desired output time-function and an approximation to the desired function is the 16 major that 1 the SC obtair a part a clos than n Often choice realis Often restri eXplic that a aSagE Systems are: ( therEfo System it a1w3 Of the Can be and TUt Shifts, Obtain; 17 major difficulty. If a realistic performance index is defined that represents most of the design requirements of a problem, then the solution for the optimal control function can usually be obtained only by numerical methods which yield solutions to only a particular problem. On the other hand, if it is desired to obtain a closed-form solution for the control and, thereby, to solve more than numerical problem, simple performance indices must be used which often do not specify many of the design requirements. Thus the choice of a performance index is generally a compromise between a realistic criterion and one that is mathematically tractable. Even when a realistic criterion can be defined, it is often found that the basic concept of a performance index is too restrictive. In practice, any mathematical criterion is rarely explicit enough to define the optimum system uniquely. It is here that a certain amount of personal Opinion is found. Very often, the quadratic performance index is considered as a generalized criterion for designing linear multivariable systems. The advantages of using this particular quadratic index are: (1) it results in a closed-form solution for the control and, therefore, the properties of the control as well as the Optimal system can be determined; (2) under a reasonable set of restrictions, it always produces a stable system; (3) once the numerical elements of the performance index are Specified, the optimal feedback gains can be determined by a straightforward computer solution (Tyler and Tuteur, 1966); (4) when the dynamic systems are under the random Shifts, it enables one to disregard the uncertainty elements for obtaining the control rule. (Simon, 1956; Theil, 1957). quadra resour polici 1972; as a g theory produc and st elemen Contro lens, the soc Variabj element 2.2 Fe which I ProcesS featurq aCtUatE Operat]. Cemmanc trol OI tions 5 18 The quadratic functional which is often times called a quadratic social disutility function in economic problems on optimum resource allocation over time and on macroeconomic stabilization policies, has been used quite extensively (Sengupta, 1970; Chow, 1972; Simon, 1956; Theil, 1965). Also, it has been frequently used as a generalized measure of the system performance in the control theory (Kalman, 1964; Kuo, 1970); information theory (Adorno, 1962); production, employment and inventory scheduling (Holt, et.al., 1956), and statistical quality control theory (Barnard, 1959). The quadratic index contains weighting matrices whose elements can be Specified to Satisfy the requirements of specific control problems -- in the short-run macroeconomic regulation prob- lems, the elements of the weighting matrix are designed to measure the social disutility associated with the deviations of the economic variables from their specified targets -- and, in effect, these elements become the design parameters of the Optimal system. 2.2 Feedback Control A feedback control system is a combination of elements which automatically COOperate to maintain a physical quantity or process in accordance with a given command. It has three predominant features; (1) it is a closed-100p system in which the control is actuated by a quantity that is affected by the result of the control operation; (2) it can establish control throughout a wide range of command that may vary in a random manner, and (3) it permits the con- trol of high-power operations at a remote point by low-power Opera- tions at a local point. are; signé opera to be feedb the e with be ac‘ in the of the effect feedba compen Controj the p01 the Sys weighte {10118 0 Changs there e matrix) lineal.)F 19 Some of the major reasons for employing feedback control are; (1) the process or actuator which supplies the output may have Signal transmission characteristics that make accurate Open-100p operation (open-loop Operation yields an entire sequence of controls to be followed from initial conditions) very difficult, (2) with feedback, the precision of control can be made to depend largely on the equipment used to measure the system output and to compare it with its "ideal" value. This fact may enable accurate control to be achieved in Spite of inaccuracies and variable characteristics in the process. That is, the feedback will reduce the sensitivity of the System characteristics to changes in parameters, (3) the effects of disturbances on the output may be suppressed by employing feedback, thereby eliminating the need for the elaborate disturbance compensators that would be needed with open-loop control. In the economic stabilization models, a linear feedback control policy (the control policy is set to reSpond linearly on the policy goal variables) is generally chosen in such a way that the system under control (closed-loop system) will have a small weighted sum of variances. It can be seen that feedback is used to overcome limita- tions of the physical components and is introduced to effect Specific changes in the characteristics of the system (Ku, 1962). In connection with the latter application of feedback, there exists a problem of arbitrary pole (eigenvalue of the system matrix) assignment (Willner, et.al., 1972). Given a controllable, linear, time—invariant system, x(t) = Ax(t) + Bu(t) , (2.1) where of C(N back 1 yield whose vect01 where eigenv associ Where 0f prot‘ Vhe re Vaer, for a1: 20 where x(t) is an n-vector of state variables, u(t) is an m-vector of control variables, and A,B, are constant matrices, find a feed- back gain matrix G(m X n) Such that the feedback control u(t) = Gx(t) (2.2) yields the closed-loop system x(t) = (A + BG)x(t) (2.3) whose eigenvalues can be assigned arbitrary. For a single-control system (B in (2.1) becomes an n- vector), the problem of the pole assignment is solved as follows. A nonsingular matrix T is found such that TFT'1 = A'+'Bh'T-1 = A.+'BG , (2.4) where F is the Jordan canonical matrix of desired closed-100p eigenvalues (xi, 1 = 1,2,...,n), with only a single Jordan block associated with each multiple eigenvalue, and G = h'T , (2.5) where h' = (l, l,..., 1), an n-vector. For T, we solve TF - AT = Bh' by solving a sequence of problems of the form II on (x11 - A):i (2.6) where t1 is the 1th column of T. If Pi is a repeated eigen- value, then (2.6) becomes (111 - A)ti - B - t1-1 (2.7) for all but the first column of T associated with xi. for E possi CODII’ so th where define then ( Which ; Pattern Paths, 0f the enables Charact 2'3 In Underst making, map 16}; 21 For multi-control System, the problem of finding G for a given set of eigenvalues is generally nonlinear and has many possible solutions. In order to obtain a linear solution, the control u in (2.2) is restricted to the form u(t) = 026 x(t) (2.8) so that the closed-loop system (2.3) becomes x(t) = (A + BaG)x(t) , (2.9) where a is an m-vector with all elements equal to unity. If we define Ba = b , (2.10) then (2.9) becomes x(t) = (A‘+ bG)x(t) , (2.11) which is the closed-loop system equation of a single-control system. Since the eigenvalues of the system matrix govern the pattern of time paths (in particular, the convergence of the time paths, the Speed of the convergence, and the damping ratio, etc.) of the state variables, the solution of the pole assignment problem enables the designers of control systems to effect the "desired" characterization of the system by prOper choice of feedback controls. 2.3 Inverse Optimal Control Problem Recent trends in control theory deal with the fundamental understanding of large scale systems and decentralized decision making. Social and economic processes, which are characterized by complex and often unknown relationships among their constitutent 22 components, have such problems amenable to control theory applica- tion. The research tools of optimal control theory can be used to study the dynamic responses of the social and economic systems and to evaluate their performance. Most of the social and economic decisions usually practiced at their basic levels consist of examining various actions together with their associated con- sequences and choosing the particular action which would generate the most desirable outcome. Such elementary decision making could be improved upon by using dynamic models for the purpose of examining various decision rules and their associated results in terms of the time paths of the variables generated. The decision making process could be further improved by specifying some performance indices to generate certain optimal decision rules because the ad hoc decision rules may not be Optimal for certain reasonable performance criteria and some better rules might be discovered by the Optimal control approach which would otherwise remain unnoticed by the elementary method. In this case, it is hardly expected that certain per- formance indices can be generally agreed upon. In fact, it is frequently argued that the choice of the performance index to be Optimized is arbitrary and subjective, perhaps only a matter of taste. The argument is even greater in the social and economic regulatory systems compared to the physical and technological systems where the relative merits among various components of trajectories are better understood and clearer, and sometimes they are measured Specifically in terms of energy and cost expenses. This suggests 23 that the design of socio-economic systems as well as physical and technological systems involves the so-called "inverse Optimal con- trol problem" -- instead of asking for a control policy correSpond- ing to a given performance index, one might seek to determine all performance criteria, if any, for which a given control policy is optimal. By solving this problem, one might be able to discover general prOperties Shared by all optimal control policies. Further- more, if it can be discovered that there exist many performance indices for a single optimal control policy, then the preceding criticism about the choice of performance index will be irrelevant since the important aspects of optimality will hold independently of the specific Choice of a performance index. Also, as the inverse optimal control problem is the opposite of the optimal control problem, the solution must dis- tinguish between control policies which are optimal and those which are not, and perhaps disclose practical advantages of using Specific control policies in combination with specific performance indices. For instance, if the given control policy has some undesirable effects on the closed-loop system, the policy maker may want to find another control policy. But once the system equation and the specific performance index are given, the control policy is uniquely determined and consequently the properties of the closed-100p System cannot be changed. This means that given a system equation, difv ferent performance indices should be Specified in order to get different control policies. Here the solution of the inverse optimal control problem may help to find out the appropriate performance 24 index together with the control policy by which the closed-100p system can achieve the desired characteristics of "goodness" (e.g., moderate overshoot, high lOOp gain, and flat frequency response). One important class of this problem is how to design optimal systems with prescribed closed-100p eigenvalues. We know that if the system is controllable, it is always possible to find a feedback gain matrix which will assign an arbitrary set of eigen- values to the closed-loop system matrix (cf. Section 2.2). That is, if some prescribed set of eigenvalues is assigned to the closed- 1oop system matrix such that the closed-100p system can reveal the "desirable" characteristics, the corresponding feedback gain matrix can always be found. Once this ”desirable" feedback gain matrix is obtained, the corresponding performance index can be found by the method of inverse Optimal control. As an example for the inverse Optimal control problem, consider a Simple dynamic macroeconomic model. 9 = u(c + 1 - y) (2.12) é = 8(ay - c) where y = Y - YO c = C - CO 1 — I - I0 0:3 ... dynamic adjustment coefficients Y = GNP C = consumption I = investment 25 a = marginal prOpensity to consume. Subscript "0" denotes the equilibrium values. The dynamic system (2.12) can be written as -a a. a 2': = x + u , (2.13) 3a -6 0 where x = (y,c)', a vector of state variables, and u = i, a con- trol variable. Here the prime denotes the transpose. Let the performance index for the system (2.13) be T 2 = I J A (xtht + kut)dt (2.14) where Q is symmetric and positive semidefinite and k is a positive constant. Then the Optimal control policy in the feedback form is given byl) u = g'x (2.15) where g is the time-varying feedback gain vector which can be uniquely determined by the method of Optimal control theory. The inverse Optimal control problem for the example is: given an optimal control policy (2.15), find all performance func- tional of the form (2.14), if any.2) Specifically, determine the weighting matrices, Q and k in (2.14). In the above example, if the given control policy for the investment has some undesirable effects on the closed-loop system, e.g., too drastic change in consumption level over the 1) 2) We would like to find only one, but this is not always the case. A * indicates the control is optimal with respect to (2.14). 26 planning period, the policy maker may want to find another control policy. But once the system equation (2.13), and weighting matrices Q and k in (2.14) are given, the closed-loop system cannot be changed. Here, the solution of the inverse Optimal control prob- lem may help to find out the appropriate weighting matrices Q and k, and the control policy by which the closed-100p system can achieve the desired characteristics. The solution to the problem described above will be the subject of Chapter Four below. CHAPTER THREE THE INVERSE OPTIMAL CONTROL PROBLEMS -- LITERATURE SURVEY Since the inverse optimal problem is to find the per- formance indices (if any), given an optimal control policy, solu— tion of the problem, in general, starts with the assumption that there exists a solution for the Hamilton-Jacobi equation (which provides a sufficient condition for Optimality) or for the matrix Riccati equation which can be derived from the Hamilton-Jacobi equation. The main purpose of this survey is of a rather technical nature, i.e., to examine the solution process for the inverse prob- lems, which could be utilized for a broader class of the inverse problem. 3.1 Inverse Control Problem for the Continuous-Time Systems Kalman (1964) considers, for the first time, the inverse Optimal control problem for the following case: (a) The system is governed by a linear differential equation with constant coefficients (linear, time-invariant, continuous- time system). x(t) = A x(t) + b u(t) , (3.1) where x is a real n-vector, the state of the system, u(t) is a continuous, real-valued function of time, the control function, 27 28 A is a real constant n X n matrix, and b is a real constant n-vector . (b) The control policy is linear and constant, 110:) = -g'X(t) , (3-2) where g is a real, constant n-vector of feedback coefficients. (c) The performance index is a quadratic form with constant co- efficients in the state and control variables. t1 t1 2 J = 1im L(x(t),u(t))dt = lim a g (x'H'Hx + u )dt t—K'JO t—ooo 1 l where H is a 1 X n matrix with rank = l. 1) (3.3) (d) There is only one control variable (or single-input system). The basic assumptions employed are (i) The system (3.1) is completely controllable; rank(b,Ab,...,An-1b) = n, i.e., all the state variables can be affected by some suitable choice of the control function u(t). (ii) The pair (A,H) is completely observable; rank(H',A'H',...,(A')n-1H') = n. This assures y = Hx must not vanish identically along any free motion of the system unless the initial state x0 = 0. Then the inverse Optimal control problem in this case is as follows: 1) This particular form of the quadratic functional L(x,u) can be said to represent a more general form. Consider L(x,u) = £{x'Qx.+ 2(r'x)u +'ou2} «2,r,o are constants, Q ==Q'). Without loss of generality, set a = 1. Then 2L(x,u) = x'Qx + 2(rlx)u + u2 = x'(Q - rr')x + (u + r'x)2. _lzet Q - rr' = H'H and u = u + r'x. Then 2L(x,u) = x'H'Hx + u the system. x = Ax +-bu must be changed to x = Ex +1bu where K's A - br', and g in u(t) = -g'x(t) is to be replaced by g = s - r- and 29 Given a completely controllable constant linear system (3.1) and constant linear control law (3.2), determine all loss functions L in (3.3) such that the control law minimizes the performance index (3.3). A necessary and sufficient condition for u(t) = -g'x(t) to be a stable optimal control law is that there exists a matrix P which satisfies the following algebraic relations (Kalman, 1964) (a) P = P' is positive definite (b) Pb ... g (3.4) (c) -PAg - Aé P = H'H + gg' (Riccati equation), where A8 = A - bg'. Since P in the above relations is unknown, it is desirable to eliminate P and to get a Simple relation connecting the control law g and the "representative" performance weighting matrix H. For this, Kalman shows that a necessary and sufficient condition for g to be an Optimal control law is that g be a stable control law and that the condition ‘1 +g'§(iw)bI2 = l + IH@(iw)bI2 holds for all real w,1) (3.5) -1 .2 . . where 6(3) = (SI - A) , 1 = -1, and s 18 a complex variable. If the condition (3.5) holds, H may be obtained by factorizing the non-negative polynomial . . 2 ._ . 2 I1 +'g T(1W)b\ - l — \H§(iw)bI . (3.6) Since g is assumed to be stable, the rational function H@(iw)b 1) It is assumed that H is a matrix consisting of one row only. Otherwise, the condition (A,H) is completely observable is not sufficient to guarantee that the optimal control law is completely observable. 30 must not possess any common cancelable factor which has a zero with non-negative real part. Using the canonical forms on matrices A and b (Wonham and Johnson, 1964), it is possible to identify the components of an n-vector H = (h1,h2,...,hn) with the numerator coefficients of the rational function h (1w)n'1 +...+ h n 1 H§(iw)b = (iw)n + an(iw) +...+ a 1 where ais, (i = 1,...,n) are constant scalars. Then the matrix H so constructed is the solution for the inverse Optimal control problem. Thau (1967) extends the Kalman's inverse problem to the multiple input system and a class of non-linear control system: (a) The dynamic system equation considered is x = f(x) + Bu , (3.7) where x is an n-vector state variables and u(t) is an m-vector control variable continuous in t. B is an n X m constant matrix. (b) The integrand of the performance criterion is a sum of a func- tional of the state variables and a functional of the control. That is, the performance index is given by V(x(O),u) = (I, [q(x) + h(u)]dt , (3.8) where q(x) and h(u) are smooth functions of their arguments. (c) It is assumed that dh . . n(u) 5‘3: 13 a one-to-one mapping, 2 h(O) =0 and £1mtg->0. du (d) The origin x = 0 is considered the target set and the 31 feedback control law given by * u (t) = ¢[x(t)] (3. is assumed to be Such that the resulting closed-100p system, * x = f(x) +'Bu (t) a F(x) + B¢(x), is asymptotically stable. 9) * Then assuming an optimal control law u (t) exists, the inverse problem is as follows: Given a control law (3.9) with the above-mentioned prOperties, find the most general performance functional (if any) of the form (3.8) which is minimized by the control law (3.9). For the control problem (a) - (d), the necessary and sufficient condition for the optimality is that the value of the Optimum performance index (3.8) Vo(x) satisfies the Hamilton- Jacobi equation 0 max {-(q(x) + h(u)) - 3%— (f(x) + 311)} = O, v°(O) = O. (3 11 From (3.10), the optimal control ¢(x) satisfies aV_O_ “(p(X)) = -B ax (3 and v0 q(X) = -h(¢(X)) - g;—'[f(X) + B¢(x)] . (3- To obtain more explicit results, Thau considers a com- pletely controllable multiple input linear time-invariant system a = Ax +’Bu , (3 .10) .11) 12) .13) where A is an (n X n) matrix and B an (n X m) matrix, and the performance index in the form of V = h g (x'H'Hx + u'u)dt . (3. 14) 32 The given control law which drives the system toward the origin is u = -Gx , (3.15) where G is a known constant matrix. It follows from (3.11) and (3.12) that G = B'P , (3.16) where P satisfies the algebraic Riccati equation, H'H + G'G = -PA - A'P + PBG + G'BP , or -PA -A'P=H'H+G'G, A =A-BG. (3.17) g g g Following Kalman (1964), Thau derives the frequency- domain characterization of optimality for the multiple-input system. Using (3.16) and (3.17), T'(iw)T(iw) = I + F'(iw)F(iw) for all real w, (3.18) where T(iw) = I +'G§(iw)B and H§(iw)B = F(iw) There is, however, no general way at the present to find the explicit expression for H from the equation (3.18). Thau further considers a class of nonlinear systemsl) given as x = Ax + be(u) (3-19) u = g'x , (3.20) 1) The development here incorporates Panda's (1971) corrected version of Thau's solution. 33 where x,b, and g are n-vectors and A is an n X n matrix. Here G(u) is considered to be a known scalar function, defined and continuous for all u, 9(0) = 0, ue(u) > O for all u # O and +1” I 9(u)du diverges. 0 \ With the additional assumptions that (i) the value of the optimum performance index is given by V0(x) = %x'Px, where P is positive definite, (ii) 9(u) in (3.19) can be expressed as a power series in odd powers of u with all positive coefficients, ) °° 1 + 1 i.e., 9(u) = X a,u , i E (I ), i=11 0 function of n in (3.11) is also expressed as a power series all ai > 0, and (iii) the inverse -1 m n (U)=}: i=1 criteria of the form (3.8) for the system (3.19) and the control ciul, i 6 (1;); explicit expressions for all performance law (3.20) can be obtained as follows (Panda, 1971). 9(g'x) = n'1<-b'Px> a co a ___._ _ I I __ __L c q(x) % x (PA + A P)x + Cl iil 1+1 (g x) i+1, i 6 (1;). (3.21) In order to have non-negative q(x) in (3.21), the con- dition, ‘1 - g'§(iw)b\2 2 1, should hold for all real w, where um) = (iwI - A)-1. It is seen above that Thau gets the explicit algebraic conditions for the solution of the inverse optimal control problem by introducing the assumption that the optimum performance is of the form Vo(x) = % x'Px, where P is a (positive definite) symmetric matrix. 1) odd. + IO represents the set of all integers that are positive and 34 Yokoyama and Kinnen (1972) show the necessary and suf- ficient conditions for Optimized performance indices of a general class of controllable and uncontrollable systems with weakened assumption about the form of the optimum performance. Yokoyama and Kinnen have the following problem: (a) The system, )2 = G(X) + Bu 5 Ax + F(x) + Bu . (3.22) (b) A feedback control law, u(x). (3.23) (c) The functional form of the performance indices is restricted to the general structure, g {L(x) + u'Ru}dt . (3.24) The assumptions for the problem are (i) x is an n-vector of state variables. G(x) is an n- dimensional vector valued function of class C2 satisfying G(O) = O, and A is an n X n matrix such that Ax is the first-degree homogeneous term of G(x). (ii) u is an m-vector of control variables and B is an n x m matrix of rank r such that O < r s m 5 n. (iii) u(x) is an m-dimensional vector valued function of class C2 such that u(O) = O and the origin of the synthesized control system (3.22) is asymptotically stable in the large. (iv) R is restricted to an m X m matrix, symmetric and 35 2 positive definite and L(x) to class C such that L(O) = O and g {L(¢(t,x) + u[¢(t,x)]'Ru[¢(t,x)]}dt (3.25) is well defined, where ¢(t,x) is a solution of (3.22) from x C R“. Given a system equation (3.22) and a feedback control law (3.23) a priori, the problem is to seek L(x) in the performance indices (3.24) optimized in the synthesized feedback control system. It is assumed that the inverse problem is considered for the control equivalent canonical form (Luenberger, 1967). Thus A =FA1W A21 n L and B = where the n-r = A(e) O 0 ..... O '1 Le O O A(1,2) ..... 0 L1 r O O ................... O A(r-l,r) Lr-l LA(r,e) A(r,l) ........ (r,r) .4 Lr Le L1 F 3 _ 0 I 0 n {r L.0 1 I Lr 0‘L L following is true: (i) Le’Ll""’Lr-l’ and Lr are integers determined by A and B r such that Le + igibi = n, O < L1 3 L2 g...s Lt = r, = 0; if A,B is a controllable pair L e f 0; if A,B is not a completely controllable pair, 36 (ii) A(i,i+1) is an Li x {3+1 matrix such that A(i,r+1) = [0: IL 1, i = 1,2,...,r-1, i 's are unspecified. A(uni) For convenience, define the following: = r - = (i) x x1.) n r _[rx(e)l x(l) LXZJ r L3(rLJ the components of x2 = x(t) are directly dependent on u from the structure of B. Those of x1 are indirectly controlled state variables. (ii) G1(x) n-r IF1(x) n-r G(X) E . F(X) = G2(X) r F2(X) 1' (iii) u(x) = u1(x) m-r (3.26) u2(x) r (iv) R11 R12 m-r R = (3.27) ! R12 Rzzj r 1 - ‘ - and R0 R22 R12R11 R12 For the optimal performance index V(x), the Hamilton- Jacobi equation min {L(x) + u'Ru + (a§£51)'[6(x) + Bu]} = 0 (3.28) U must be uniquely realized at each x E Rn by u such that u: —a R'13'(5§£§1) . (3.29) 37 Identifying (3.29) with the specified u(x), it follows from (3.26), (3.27) that 1 u1(x) = -R11 R12 u2(x) (3.30) and M = -2 8X2 R0u2(x) . (3.31) 2 With the symmetry prOperty of §:§é£l , the following is derived. r— r‘ X . avg ) _ avgx)‘1 2 5”2(x) l = -2 -——-—- R dx + W(x ) ax 5x1 0 5x1 0 2 1 a (3.32) M _2 R0U2(X) , L 5x2 J L 4 where W(x1) is an (n-r)-dimensional vector-valued function of class C1 (i.e., with continuous first derivatives) to provide 2V x2 au (x) the symmetry for a—-££l, and the integral I -;-- dx is defined axlax 5x 1 0 l au2(X) (for an r-dimensional row vector function -;;—- a E(x)) as 1 x2 xn-r-l-l g E(x)dx = g e1(x1,x2,...,xn_r,r1,0,...,0)dr1 x n-r+2 +3; e2(x1,x2,...,xn_r+1,r2,0,...,O)dr2 +... x n + & er(x1,x2,...,xn;1,rr)drr . The optimal performance index has an expression X o V(x) =f (dz-£51m): . (3.33) o Yokoyama and Kinnen (1972) show that a performance index (3.24) can be optimized by the specified u(x) if and only if 38 the following conditions are satisfied: (a) u1(x) = -R11 R12 u2(x), au2(x) (b) R0(-;;--) is symmetric, 2 (c) there exists an (n-r)-dimensiona1 vector-valued function W(x1) of class C1 insuring the symmetry of x2 au2(x) . 3W(x1) -2 . .r<--;.-—> +-—— 5 1 0 a 3x1 (d) L(x) and R are related by 2 5112(X) . . L(x) = ué(x)ROu2(x) + Zué (X)ROGZ(X) + 2 g [:-g;I—;] Rodx2 Gl(x) - W'(x1)G1(x) . (3.34) The above procedure does not guarantee that the solution is unique and the resulting performance index V(x) is positive- semi definite. However, Yokoyama and Kinnen develop a method which insures the positive definiteness of V(x) as well as -9(x) by adjusting V(x) and L(x) that are obtained as (3.33) and (3.34). All the inverse optimal problems mentioned so far con- sider the performance index of a special form, i.e., the integrand of the index does not explicitly depend on time. Kurz (1969) and Bellman (1970) consider the inverse problem which involves the performance index with time-dependent integrand. Kurz's system equation is (a) x = f(x) ~ u, x(0) = x (3.35) O 3 39 with performance criterion of the form (I) J = g e'5th(u)dt . (3.36) (c) The control law is given by u = ¢(x) . (3.37) It is assumed that f(x) in (3.35) is strictly concave with f'(x) > O, f"(x) < O for all x(t); h(u) in (3.36) is strictly concave belonging to the class C2, and 5 > O is constant. The control law u is assumed to be monotonic, continuously differenti- able function with ¢'(x) > 0. Then, the inverse problem is to find the function h(u) and 6 in the performance index such that the given u = ¢(x) is the optimal control law for the system (3.35). For the Hamiltonian defined by H(x.u,t.p>e“ = h(u) + p[f(x) - u] , where p(t)'e-6t is a "costate" variable, the optimality condition is given by fi(t) = P(t)(6 - f'(X)) (3-38) h'(u) = p(t) . (3.39) Assuming that x f(x) - ¢(x) has at most one stationary * * * * solution x , f'(x ) > O, and f'(x ) - ¢'(x ) < 0, then the inverse problem of u = ¢(x) has a solution. In fact, since the system is a simple scalar equation, an explicit solution can be obtained analytically as follows. 40 From (3.38) and (3.39), = f' x - 6 u .3 - h" u .u (3.40) h'(U) Moreover, since u = $(x), 33:27.?” (3.41) Thus from (3.40) and (3.41), 11322 _ f'(xl ' 5 (3.42) - h'(U) — ¢'(X)[f(><) - c1500] With x(u) = ¢-l(u), the equation (3.42) can be considered as an equation in u only. The general solution of (3.42) may be formally written as f'x(u) - 6 ¢'[X(U)][f(X(U)) - @(X(U))] * C At the stationary point x , it must be that x = O, h'(u) = M exp{-f an}, (M > 0).(3.43) * * * . which implies that u = ¢(x ) = f(x ) is constant and p(t) = O in (3.39), and therefore (3.38) gives * f'(x) =6 . (3.44) The common features of the inverse problems discussed so far are: (1) the system matrices are constant (time-invariant systems), (2) the optimization period is infinite. The above-type of the inverse problem is of particular interest, mainly because the problems involve a constant feedback gain matrix for the control law. 41 More interesting optimization problems, however, are formulated in terms of the time-varying system matrices and involve a finite time period of optimization. Jameson and Kreindler (1973) consider the following dynamic system (a) x = Ax + Bu , x(tO) = x0 , (3.45) (b) a given control law u = -Gx , (3.46) and a performance index N (C) J = x'(N)FX(N) +'{ (xWQx + u'Ru)dt , (3.47) 0 where x is an n-vector of state variables, u an m-vector of controls, N is a fixed terminal time. The matrices, A,B,G,Q, and R are time-varying and assumed to be uniformly bounded and con- tinuous on [toy]. In addition, Q =Q' and F = F' are positive semi-definite and R = R' is positive definite. The explicit expression for G in (3.46) in this problem is given by 1 G = R- B'P (3.48) where P is the positive semi-definite solution of the Riccati equation -I'> = PA + A'P - PBR-LB'P +Q P(N) = F . (3.49) * The minimum value J of the performance index (3.47) is 42 3* = x(t0)'P(tO)x(tO) . ' (3.50) The inverse problem here is to find F, Q, and R in the performance index (3.47), given the system equation (3.45) and the control law (3.46). Note that the existence of symmetric P, R, Q, and F satisfying (3.48) and (3.49) is a necessary condition for a closed- loop system x = (A - BG)x to be optimal with respect to the per- formance index (3.47). The solution of inverse problem is obtained by consider- ing (3.48) , i.e. , RC = B'P (3.51) or equivalently RGB = B'PB , (3.52) G'RG = G'B'P . (3.53) Writing R = L'L, (3.52) implies 1 1 1 (L'1)'B'PBL' = (L'1)'RGBL' =LGBL' . (3.54) If R = R' is positive definite and P = P' is positive semi-definite, then (3.52), (3.53) and (3.54) imply RGB = B'G'R , (3.55) rank (BG) = rank (G) , (3.56) GB has non-negative real eigenvalues, (3.57) respectively. Therefore, if R = R' (positive definite) and P = P' (positive semidefinite) could be constructed such that (3.55) - (3.57) hold, then the chosen R and P satisfy (3.51). 43 Jameson and Kreindler (1973) developed a procedure for constructing such R and P as follows. By suitably choosing P, which is a positive definite, real, symmetric matrix such that PA = AF, R can be chosen as R =vr'v' , (3.58) where V is a matrix of eigenvectors of B'G' and A is the diagonal matrix of corresponding eigenvalues. The matrix P can be constructed, by choosing a symmetric, positive semidefinite matrix Y, as P = G'R(RGB)+RG +-Y , (3.59) where (RGB)+ denotes the Penrose generalized inverse of RGB, i.e., (RGB)(RGB)+(RGB) = (RGB). Once R and P are constructed as (3.58) and (3.59), F and Q can be found from the Riccati equation (3.49). It should be noted that Q so determined may not be non- negative definite. However, the performance index of the form (3.47) with the chosen P, Q, R, and P attains its absolute minimum J* over all square-integrable controls for all x(to) and all tO 0), is not attained. Now, assume that policy makers want to achieve price stability using a feedback control of the form (4.49) in Chapter Four: * mt = glpt + 82rt +'k , (5.5) where g1, g2, and k are constant scalars. Specifically, it is desired that zero steady-state value of p be attained by using a control of the form (5.5). t A digression is in order at this point. Let the system (5.4) be written as x = Axt +Bmt+Czt , (5.6) t+1 = ' _-_—_ ' = I where xt (pt , rt) , zt (w , yt) (0.9, 0.38) , t 66 0.77 0 0.02 0.23 -0.23 0.48 0.37 -0.16 0 0.03 Note in this example, Czt is a constant vector. From (4.49) in Chapter Four, the feedback control policy (5.5) is also written as -1 = + 5. mt gxt gA CZt , ( 7) where 8 = (81,82) Then the system under the feedback control (or closed-loop system) is governed by the relation _ -1 xt+1 - (A + Bg)xt + (BgA +I)Czt . (5.8) The steady-state values of xt in the closed-loop system (5.8) is given byl) X II (A + Bg)xe + (BgA’1 +1)Czt 013' :4 ll (1 - A - Bg)-1(BgA-1 + neet . (5.9) From (5.9), we derive -1 e e Bg(A Czt + x ) = (I - A)x - Czt . (5.10) By solving (5.10) for g, it is possible to find the required feed- back control rule for a prescribed steady-state value vector xe of the state variables. Note, however, that g(A-1c2t + xe) in (5.10) is a scalar. Define 801*th +xe) = k, (5.11) where k is a scalar. l ) Since the closed-loop system (5.8) is assumed to be stable, the indicated inverse in (5.9) exists. 67 Then it is seen that in order to solve (5.10) for g, xe should be chosen Such that xe = (1 - A)'1(Bk + Czt) (5.12) holds.1) If xe in (5.12) is considered as an arbitrarily chosen known vector, (5.12) becomes a two-equation system with only one unknown k, and in general, cannot be solved. One element of x8 should be set "free" to be determined together with k by the system. This implies that only one element of xe can be 2) specified arbitrary if k is a scalar. That is, if there is only one control variable in the model, only one state variable Of the closed-100p system can be steered to have the prescribed steady- state value. This can be generalized that the number of the policy goal variables which can be controlled to attain the steady-state values is equal to the number of the control variables in the model (cf. Tinbergen, 1967). As the state variable xt = (pt , rt)' in (5.8) are required to have the steady-state values, the closed-loop system must be stable, and eigenvalues of the closed-100p system should be restricted to be less than unity in absolute magnitude. This implies that the feedback gain vector of the required control for the price Stabilization should be determined so as to make the closed-100p system be stable ("arbitrary pole assignment problem" in Chapter Two). 1 ) Since all the eigenvalues of A are less than unity in absolute value, (I - A)‘1 exists. 2 ) k in (5.11) is a scalar since the system (5.6) has one control, m o t 68 That is, from (2.5) in Chapter Two, the feedback gain vector 3 needs to satisfy g = h'T.1 or gT = h' , (5,13) where h' = (l, 1) and a nonsingular matrix T = (t1 , t2). The columns of matrix T, t1 and t2 are determined for the pre- scribed closed-IOOp eigenvalues )1 as follows. (111 - A)ti B . i = 1,2 . (5.14) Equations (5.13) and (5 14) imply gti = 1 . (5.15) Since the solution for the inverse problem requires that the closed-loop system matrix, A + Bg, is singular (Lemma 1, Chapter Four), we assign k1 = 0 for (5.14) and find the corresponding t1. Then, from (5.11) and (5.15), the following relations should be satisfied simultaneously for the required feedback gain vector g: -0.026535 g1 - 0.215176 g2 = 0.9428 -0.026 g1 + 0.4661 g2 = l . (5.16) Solving (5.16) for g1 and 82’ we find the following "desired" feedback control policy: * mt = -36.4 pt + 0.11 rt - 5.7 . (5.17) The behavior of the resulting closed-loop system is shown in Figure 2. 69 a 12 pt = - 0.01(0.39) + 0.01 rt = - 1.52(o.39)t + 1.52 2.0— r 1.0— 0. O J l IJJI' t 5 10 15 Figure 2. Responses of System (5.4) under Control (5.17) 4 Given the chosen feedback control policy (5.17), the 1 weighting matrix Q in the performance index can be determined by the method of inverse Optimal control problem discussed in the previous chapter. Recall (4.52) - (4.54) in Chapter Four: D'(A + Bg) = 0, Q = DD' For the given system (5.4) and the feedback gain vector 8 (5-17). 0.04 0.00224 1 0 A-+ Bg = = E , (5.18) 6.31 0.352 157 0 where E is the inverse of the product of the elementary (column) operation matrices. Thus, D' = z(-157 l) , (5.19) where z is a non-zero, otherwise arbitrary, scalar, Choosing z = 1, 70 24649 -157 Q = . (5.20) -157 1 From Figure 2, it is seen that one of the targets, price stability, is now attained by the prescribed feedback con- trol policy. Also, Since the dominant eigenvalue of the closed- lOOp system, 0.39, is smaller than that 0.77 of the zero-control system, trajectories of both price and interest rate converge to their steady-state values in shorter time in this case. Note, however, that the steady-state value of the interest rate is higher in the closed-100p system with the chosen control rule (5.17). This can be explained by the fact that the optimum control policy involves the continuously decreasing money supply (Figure 3), effecting the price stability, but on the other hand, causing the interest rate to increase continuously. Z l l l O 5 10 15 t WV? _AA A.— __‘v—v W W A::W'A AV;A WW -4.0b mt = - 36.4 pt + 0.11 rt - 5.7 -500- N ’: mt Figure 3. Optimal Feedback;Control for Price Stabilization 71 It is to be noted that the weighting matrix Q in (5.20) gives the very heavy weight to the price variable compared to the interest rate. Negative sign of the Off-diagonal elements of Q indicates that there exists "trade-off" between the monetary policy for price regulation and that for_interest rate control. Anologously, another feedback control policy is found for interest rate stabilization: * "‘t - 313': + 2.31 rt + 0.06 . (5.21) Time paths of price and interest changes and of the money supply changes under this policy (5.21), are Shown in Figure 4 and Figure 5, respectively. In this case, the closed-loop system matrix is A + bg = 0.83 0.05 -0.001 -0.00006 and the weighting matrix Q is found to be Q = 1 0 0 594441 . (5 .22) AS expected, in (5.22) the interest rate variable is given larger weight compared to the price variable. One remark concerning the chosen control policies (5.17) and (5.21): the continuously decreasing or continuously increasing money supply policy would not be feasible in reality, for, say, political reasons, if the change rates are big all over the period. It is important, however, to observe that in the examples, the control is not constrained and no cost for conducting control policy 72 pt . - 0.71(0.83)t + 0.71 rt - - 0.001(0.83)t + 0.001 N t It: 0.5L- 0. L 11 1 .L I rt 0 5 10 15 20 H t Figure 4. Responses of the System (5.4) under Control (5.21). 2 mt = 3 pt + 2.31 rt + 0.06 3.0“— mt r—1I>- l l 15 20 t Figure 5. Optimal Feedback Control for Interest Stabilization 73 is included in the performance criterion, and accordingly the con- trol is free to vary in the control Space (i.e., the real line in this case). Obviously, further research needs to be done when the controls have some constraints and/or the costs of conducting the policies are incOrporated in the performance index. 5.2 Two-Control Model I Dropping the perfectly competitive, full employment t assumption for the labor market, we will consider the overall system given by (5.3). In this model,we choose wt as a control variable, since in an assumed imprefectly competitive market, the discre- tionary pricing power of unions can be used to demand monetary wage increases in excess of productivity gains. TO the extent that price expectations are based upon recent price changes, these demands for larger monetary wage increases will persist in the absence of any continuing excess demand. Furthermore, these large increases in money wage rates induce a higher rate of price in- flation which confirms the original expectations. In such circumstances, temporary wage-price controls by curbing these expectations may prove effective. Since it is generally agreed that wage controls are the more easily administered, wt is chosen to be a control variable. The time paths of state variables for the system with zero controls, mt = 0 = w , i.e., when both money supply and money I: wage rate are kept constant, are shown in Figure 6. 74 pt - 0.38(0.77)t - 0.38 0.1 - rt - O.456(0.77)t- O.186(0.37)t- 0.27 ut - 0.127(0.77)t- 0.147(0.8)t + 0.02 u 0 1 '1 --l>--T—" t 15 20 t —001 -0.2 ~‘..“‘————--->————t; .3 f p1 -0.4 (- Figure 6. ReSponses Of System (5.3) with Zero Control In order to have price stability with a linear feed- back control, the chosen feedback gain vector g = (g1, 82, g3)' should satisfy the following relations simultaneously [(5.11), (5.15) above]: -0.028125 g1 + 0.027015 g2 + 0.000348 g3 = 0.08763 -0.3247 g1 + 0.8536 g2 - 0.00656 g3 = l -O.5 g1 +,4 g2 - 0.01321 g3 = l . (5.23) From (5.23), the following feedback control policy is Obtained: = a(-3-44 pt - 0.21 rt - 9.76 ut + 0.37) (5.24) * m t * w t 75 1) where a = [l] . l The resulting time paths of state variables and of the control variable are shown in Figure 7 and Figure 8, respectively. With the selected control policy (5.24), the closed- 100p system matrix is A‘+ Bag = -0.09 -0.053 -2.44 1.03 0.404 1.56 -0.02 -0.0004 0.78 = 1 0 03 0 1 0 E , -0.35 -0.05 oj where E is a nonsingular matrix. Applying the inverse Optimal control method as dis- cussed in (4.52) - (4.54), D'(A+ Bag) = 0, DD' “<2 . where D' = z(0.35, 0.05, l) , (5.25) the weighting matrix Q in the performance index is found by setting 2 = l in (5.25) to be (0.12 0.02 0.35‘ Q = 0.02 0.002 0.05 (5.26) 10.35 0.05 1 J 1 ) For the computational convenience, the system is converted to a single-control model [(2.8) - (2.11), Chapter Two]. 76 z 0.01- ‘1t 0 - ‘—--T—-—4-_——_—_l=.:——-.—-+-_--pt 0 ‘” ‘ ‘ | 5 t 10 t 15 t -0.01‘ pt - -0.008(O.27) +0.007(0.824) +0.001 -0.02*I; rt = 0.063(0.27)t+0.007(O.824)t- 0.07. \ ut = -0.0002(0.27)t-0.0028(0.824)t+0.003 \ \ \ —0.051- \ \ \ \\ _________________ _F — -..—rt Figure 7. Responses of System (5.3) under Control (5.24). 2 mt - - 3.44 pt- 0.21 rt - 9.76 ut + 0.37 0.36- ml: 0.35.— " J l O 5 10 15 t Figure 8. Optimal Feedback Control for Price Stabilization. 77 Similarly, the control policy which would achieve full employment is: * mt * =a(-7.7 pt+0.07 rt+237.1 ut+0.5) W t where (y = (l , l)' . (5.27) The correSponding time paths of the state and control variables are shown in Figure 9 and Figure 10. The weighting matrix for the performance index, in this case is 2 r(0.021) 0 -0.021‘ 2 Q = 0 (0.0007) 0.0007 (5.28) L-0.021 0.0007 1 J Comparing the two cases considered so far for the system (5.3) (price stabilization policy and full employment policy), we observed the following. (i) The model reveals the familiar Phillips Curve relation for the price changes and unemployment variations. That is, when the steady-state value of ut is reduced from 0.003% to 0.001%, that of pt increases from 0.001% to 0.045% (Figure 7 and Figure 9).1) (ii) Relative weight for the price variable is higher for the price stabilization policy compared to the full employment policy (vice versa), even though the major weight is found to be given to the unemployment variable in both cases. 1) Magnitudes of figures may be too small to claim the Phillips curve relation. However, the figures show the essential char- acteristics of the curve. 78 z .. 0.05 — t t ' t =0.068(0.27) -0.1l3(0.21) +0.045 rt = —0.S44(0.27)t+0.592(0.21)t-0.048 0'02 u =0.0018(0.27)t—0.0028(0.21)t+0.001 t 0.01 n 4.1 I t 0 5 31V 15 i t -0.01 —0.02 I i ‘ r —0 05 ‘ , —-- ——————————————— -.r — — — —E— . \ / -0.06 \ I/ \_,r Figure 9. Responses of System (5.3) under Control (5.27). Z” mt = - 7.7 pt-l- 0.07 rt + 237.1 ut + 0.5 0.40— 0.39— .__ .13.:_. m~ 0.38— Figure 10. Optimal Feedback Control for Full Employment. CHAPTER SIX CONCLUSIONS AND RESEARCH RECOMMENDATIONS 6.1 ‘Summary of Conclusions By solving the inverse optimal control problem, this study has demonstrated the feasibility of quantifying performance criteria for the economic decision making problems. Economic processes, which are characterized by complex and Often unknown relationships among their constituent components, require one to formulate the decision making problems in general, in terms of dis- crete-time difference equation systems. This demands the solution of the inverse problem for the discrete-time multi-control systems for the choice Of the performance indices. A sufficient condition was developed for the solution of the inverse problem for a linear discrete-time multi-control regulatory process with a quadratic performance index. An explicit solution was obtained for a special case where the performance functional does not contain the control variables, and the result was further extended to a linear tracking problem, which could be easily adapted to the macroeconomic regulation problems. It has been shown that the solution of the inverse problem is not unique in general, which implies that the optimal control policies are fairly robust against different performance indices under the conditions stated above. Also, it was found that 79 80 the solution of the inverse problem for a linear regulator holds true without any modification for the linear tracking problem. In Chapter Five, the illustrations about the applica- tions of the developed techniques for the selection of the per- formance criteria emphasize three points; the determination of the steady-state values of the trajectories of goal variables which are under control, the computation of the feedback control policy, and the construction of a performance index. It was shown that the number of the policy goal variables that can be made to attain the prescribed steady-state values is equal to the number of the control variables in the model. It was also demonstrated that the relative weights given to the competing policy goals in the per- formance index can be quantitatively determined by the method Of the inverse Optimal control problem for a dynamic policy model. 6.2 Recommendations for Further Studies Further research is needed to find a general solution of the inverse problem for the performance indices which involve the state variables as well as the control variables. This will enable one not only to quantify a more general class of performance functional but also to compare quantitatively the relative merits of different control policies. Another line of research can be conducted for defining the performance functional of a more general type, which could even reflect the sociological, group dynamic, and gametheoretical aSpects of the administrative interactions involved in the determina- tion Of policy objectives. 81 Considering the fact that the economic decisions are typically made under uncertainty and decision makers increase their knowledge by the cumulative past experiences, the study of the adaptive control problems would greatly improve our knowledge of the economic decision processes. 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The matrices, A (non-singular), B (with rank m), and C are constant matrices. The performance functional is N-l = - A I _ A - A g - A J 3567,, yN) Q(yN yN) + ’1 z {(yt yt) (Myt yt) t=0 + uéRut} , (A.2) where Q ==Q' is a positive semi-definite matrix with rank m, R = R' a positive-definite matrix, and 9C a vector of target values of the state yt assumed to be Specified for the entire Optimization period. The problem is to determine the control sequence {u:, t = 0,1,2,...,N-l} such that the corresponding state vari- able sequence {y:, t = O,l,...,N} satisfies the given initial condition, y; = y0 such that the performance functional (A.2) is minimized. In order to get the necessary conditions for the solu- tion, construct the Hamiltonian, 94 95 H(yt. Pt+1’ ut) = 5(yt - 9t) 'Q()'t - it) + ' + ' + 5 utRut Pt+1(Fyt + But Czt) [Here, the system equation (A.l) is considered to be yt+1 - yt = Fyt +But + Czt. Thus F + I = A], where PC is the vector of "co-states" The minimization of the Hamiltonian is written 13* 'k = * ' * = §;-'(y:P , t+ +1, ut) Rut +-B Pt+1 0 . (A.3) The canonical equations for the problem are * x P* x * * - = 5— = + + A. yt+1 yt 3Pt+1 (yt’P +1’ ut) Fyt But Czt ( 48) * * P* * x - = -aH—- = - c - I * 0 with the "Split" boundary conditions y0 = y and (A.5) * = 3.. x - A . * _ A = * - A W 5553,10,, yN) Q(yN yN)} Q(yN yN) - (A-6) We know that (Lee, et.al., 1972) * * + A 7 Pt — Ktyt gt . ( .p) Substituting (A.7) into (A.3), 6* = -R‘lwx y + g ) (A.8) t t+l t+1 and with (A.7), (A.8), (A.4a), and (A.4b), * * yt+1 - yt = - BR NIB K t+1y:+1 BR NIB gt+1+ (A.9) * to I to II * * * - A - ' 96 From (A.9), (I + BR-IB'Kt+1)y:+1 = (I + F)y: - BR-lB'gt+1 + Czt = Ay: - BR'hs'gtH + Czt . (A.11) Substituting (A.7) into (A.10), A'K y* +Qy* - K y* = -A'g + g + Q3) . (A.12) t+1 t+1 t t t t+1 t t Define W = I + BR-IB'Kt+ Then (A.11) becomes 1. = -1 * _ - - g '1 yt+1 W Ayt w 1BR 13 gt+1 + w Czt . (A.13) Substituting (A.13) into (A.12), -1 * -1 - -1 * * I w _ I _ A Kt+1{ Ayt W BR 1B gt+1 + W Czt} +Qyt Ktyt =-' + + " . - Agt+1 8t Qyt (A14) Rearranging (A.14), 1 Q*+A'1< w'A*-A'K w‘LBR’LB' +A'K w Cz -Q" +A'g y yt t+1 gt+1 t+1 t yt: t+1 t t+l * — Ktyt + gt (A.15) * for any initial value y0 and for all yt, which implies that -1 = I Kt Q + A Kt+1W A (A.16) - - -1 A gt A Kt+1W l‘BR 113 g”1 + A gt+1 + A Kt+1W ozt Qyt . (A.17) By the transversality condition (A.6) and (A.7), * * " - *+ f * A18 PN-Qin-YN)-KNyN 3N orany yN. (- ) Then, and and 00 H II 97 KN = Q (A.19) gN = _QSIN . ‘ (A.20) Recall w"1 = (1 + BR-lB'Kt+1)-1 = 1 — B(R + B'KtflBYIB'Kt+1 . (A.21) Substitution (A.21) into (A.16) and (A.17), Kt = Q + A'Kt+1[A - B(R + B'Kt+1B)-LB'Kt+1A] (A.22) -A'[1