THE PROBLEM OF POPULATION GROWTH IiNgTHArLANO; V': i: WITH EMPHASIS 0N FOOD PRODUCTION ANIfl-‘f;_ FAMILY PLANNING * ' . ‘ Thesis for the Degree Of Ph. D, MICHIGAN STATE UNNERSITY , RAOOM SETTEETON 1967 TH we I ~ This is to certify that the ‘ thesis entitled 7H5 Pea/3.4614 0F /'0’/’42x07/0A1 5/3’4'7” /4/ 7' ///}/‘ m/o .' 1w 7/; (QM/WA 5/5 04/ A301) [flak/(fled 2.74/6) @1114} [’A‘ 94/41ch. presented by (Mao/2;! 51: 7755 70M has been accepted towards fulfillment of the requirements for #2.— degree in My Date .45: 0-169 I t. it 9. St: __ ‘33?) ‘ 4S «W’ 1"“ national development sciatica character 502111 and economi 31er c. for a 0.0th ¢ U mending Sufficient 5e the case, an. the hope Dying the P85‘ K J “at govemnent were F o ‘, f the country without 5 l ABSTRACT THE PROBLEM.OF POPULATION GROWTH IN THAILAND: 'WITH EMPHASIS IN FOOD PRODUCTION AND FAMILY PLANNING By Radom Setteeton Rapid population growth is one of the major obstacles confronting national development of a country, as it brings about many unfavorable population characteristics unfavorable to developmental programs both social and economic. The rapid increase of population may make it dif- ficult for a country even to maintain the present standard of living, including sufficient food for interior consumption. If this happens to be the case, the hope for the development of the country is likely to be dim. During the past several decades much effort on the part of the Thai government were put on various activities to accelerate progress of the country without realizing the importance of the demographic factors which affect the developmental programs. It was not until 1963 after the first National Seminar on the Population of Thailand was held, I that attention was paid to the demographic factors in relation to the overall development plans. Many governmental officials and scholars in Thailand, however, still believe that there is no population problem in Thailand. Some even argue that Thailand is still depopulated and that increase in population will increase social and military power and will ultimately bring abundance to the country. The purposes of this studwaere: to analyze the contemporary Radom Setteeton demographic situation in Thailand under the guidance of demographic and social theories; to explain how population growth affects the socio- economic composition of the country; to eXplain and predict the impact of socio-economic factors upon the growth of population; and to eXplain socio-economic factors relating to food production and family planning. l\‘ various theories in demography, sociology, and economics related to the problem of population growth were used as a guide for analysis of the emperical data ind information derived from the following sources: Population Census of Thailand, governmental documents, papers presented to the first and second National Seminars on the Population of Thailand, United Nations, and research reports of the Family Health Research Project. Total dependency ratio and per capita income were employed as the indicators of the state of over-population. It was found that the current population growth rate of Thailand is relatively high, i.e., 3.2 percent per annum, and the dependency ' ratio in 1960 was 124. Yet, Thailand cannot be judged overpopulated, as, during the period of investigation, the per capita income constantly increased. Considering her capacity for food production, Thailand will be able to feed her population for at least 15 years in future, even ‘with the present conditions of production. Furthermore with the expan- sion of the agricultural land and with the applipation of scientific techniques it is possible for Thailand to increase her rate of agri- cultural production to a level higher than the present rate of production. However, the findings do imply that there are many population problems caused by the rapid rate of population growth. If the present rate of population growth continues, in the long run socio-economic problems will become serious and there will be less hope for the imlopsent of the c 61: be Nd‘icedo ‘ t! {be increasing popul mt projects. The result or onthtru district . the country is proh the population prob m l smfltaneous Radom Setteeton development of the country. If the present rate of population growth can be reduced, a tremendous amount of resources which would be used for the increasing population will be saved and thus can be used for develop- ment projects. The result of the experiment on family planning program in Photharam district shows that the eXpansion of such program throughout the country is probably possible. At any rate, the best solution for the population problems of Thailand is the limitation of family size and a simultaneous increase in agricultural production. g 0'. " in 3THE PROBLEM.OF POPULATION GROWTH IN THAILAND: CWITHOEMPHASIS 0N FOOD PRODUCTION AND FAMILY PLANNING By Radon Setteeton A THESIS Submitted to Michigan State University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR.OF PHILOSOPHY Department of Sociology 1967 Behind the cc Int fro: various 5 tssistance, but unf 131311 to up mt Council Whose . f” four Years. To 31" Willis: T “pre- Meivgd “bl e in Thailand In: To r2'ie rIds Win 11111 t 'J G Lakshmi J *2 ,awwb“ ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Behind the completion of this dissertation is aid and encourage- ment from various sources. It would be nw wish to acknowledge all assistance, but unfortunately it is impossible. I wish to express 1w deep gratitude to the Agricultural Develop- ment Council whose fellowship enabled me to study in the United States for four years. To Dr. William H. Form I owe special. thanks as the first Professor to give me a clear idea of the complexities of the social system and to provide one framework for the analysis of society. To Dr. J. Allan Beegle, nw Major Professor, for teaching me Demography and Rural Sociology; for guidance in nu education; and for help in writing this dissertation as well as other help. I feel lacking of appropriate words to show 1w deep appreciation and w gratitude. I am grateful to the membersof Ow guidance committee, Dr. 3. Allan Beegle (Chairman), Dr. Chailes R. Hoffer, Dr. J. W. Artie, Dr. Sheldon G. Lcwry, and Dr. James R. Hundley, Jr., for their guidance and advice through the years. A special thank is due Dr. Buffer for his critique and advice when I first formulated w outline of the dissertation. I wish to empress my gratitude to Dr. Amos H. Hawley from whom I received valuable materials concerning his research on family planning in Thailand. To In friends, Thaveep Thaveepanich and Vudhichai Chamong, I owe special thanks for their valuable materials providing necessary data 11 for the dissertation. LlSt, but of 3p cittion to It] wonder-f mt {hiring my {in y for the dissertation. Last, but of special importance, I wish to express my deep appre- ciation to my wonderful wife, Arree, whose patient help and encourage- ment during 30' five years as a student here, has been invaluable. iii TABLE OF CONTENTS AcmqowLEmImVTSOOOOOOOCOOOOOOOOOO000......00.000.000.000... LIST OF TABIJESOCOOOOOOOO00.0.0000...OCOOOOOOOOOOCOOOOOOOIO. LIST OF FIGURESOOOOCOOOOOOOCOOOCOOOOCOOOOOOOOOOOOOO00...... LIST OF APPENDICESOOOOOOOOOOOO0......0......OOOOOOOOOOOOIOO Chapter I. INTmDUCTIONOOOOOOOOCOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO Purpose and Scope......o...................... Methodology.......o........................... VTh‘lJ-‘nd TOd3YOeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeaeoeeeeeeee Organization of the Thesis.................... II. SOME DEMOGRAPHIC THEORIES.AND RELATED PROPOSITIONS Theories and Propositions Explaining Components and Trends in Population Growth in General.. Theories and Propositions Supporting the Stimulation of Population Growth............ Theories and Propositions Rejecting the Stillllllation Of Polel‘tion Grow-the e e e a e e e e e e e Other Theories Concerning Population Growth.... Population Structure and Social Structure...... III. POPULATION OF THAILAND: PAST, PRESENT, AND FUTUREOOOOOOOOOOOCOOO0.0.0.000...COOOOOOOOOOOO. Sources Of Demographic Data.................... Distribution Of Population.....o............... COMPOSlthI’l Of the Population.................. Trend in Population GI'OWtheeoeeeeoeeeeee-eosees The Components Of Population Ch‘ngeeeeeeeoeeeea iv Page ii xi C12 O\\D\JON H 16 22 27 37 40 40 81 86 Chapter IV. V. VII. THE CONSEQUENCES OF POPULATION GmWTHO O O O O O O O O O O O O * The Consequence of Population Growth on ECOHOMiO COHditiOHS-oeoooaeoeoeceoeeeoeeae The Consequence of Population Growth on SOOial COHditiOHS-eeaeoeaeosconce-cocoa... Other Consequences of Population Growth....... REDUCING RATE OF POPULATION GROWTH................ The Advantages of the Reducing Rate of POPUlation GrOWth......................... ‘f FOMily Planning............................... , The Family Action-Research in Photharam District.................................. FOOD PmDUCTIONOOOOOOOOOIOOOOOOOOOOOOIOOOOOOOOOOOO The OverbAll Aspects About Food Production.... Rice PrOduCtionoeeeeeoooaeeeeeeeeaaeeeeoeeooee Production of Other Major Food Crops.......... LiVOStOOks, HogS. Ond Poultry................. FiSheries..................................... SUWRY AND CONCIJUSIONSOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO vCSummary Of the FindingS....................... DfiThe Population PrOblemeoeoeooo.00000000090000. \/Solution8..................................... BIEJIOGRAPHYOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO APPENDICESOOOOOVOOOOOCOO...OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO...00.00.000.00... Page 97 98 108 112 119 120 127 152 163 164 166 176 178 179 183 183 184 186 190 197 Table l. 2. 9. 10. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16, 17 Table 1. 2. 8. 9. 10. 12. 13. 1h. 15. l6. 17. LIST OF TABLES Permanent immigrants to Thailand................ The distribution of Population of Thailand by regions.................................. Density of population of Thailand by regions.... Rural and urban population of Thailand by regions, 196000eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee Percentage composition of Thailand's population by broad age-group, 1950-1980 e e e a e e e e e e e e e e e Median age of Thailand's population, 1937-1980.. Population in urban and rural areas according to three age-group and sex, Thailand, 1960 (in thousandS).............................. 56x utio Of Thailand by region, 19600000000000. Population of Thailand classified by religion... Educational attainment in Thailand, 1960........ Marital status by sex and age-group, Thailand, 1960..OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO...OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO. The three age-group of population and dependency ratios, by regions, Thailand, 1960.......... The three age-group of population and dependency ratios: Thailand, 1960, 1970, and 1980..... Occupational groups of employed persons, Thailand, 1960 (in thoua‘nd3)eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee Industry groups of employed persons, Thailand, 1960 (in thO‘lS‘nds)eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee Per capita income of Thailand and selected oomtries, 1%7-19609 (in UeSe don‘r)eeeeee Farmpfamily income by regions, Thailand, 1960 (1!! nos. dOll‘I‘)eee-eaeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee vi Page 43 us 47 49 55 55 56 57 62 65 66 71 72 75 77 78 79 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. 31. 32. 33. r\ Table Page 18. Family and per capita income in three urban areas, Thailand, 1962 (in U.S. dollar)....... 80 19. Trend in population growth, Thailand, 1911-1960.. 81 20. Crude birth rates, Thailand, 1950-1980 (per thousand)............................... 86 21. crude death rates, Thailand, 1950-1980 (per thousand)............................... 87 22.- Death rate by principal causes, Thailand, 1958... 88 23c Infant death rate, Thailmd, 1938-1958eeeeeeoeeee 89 2"". M‘ril. dOIth rate, Thflflmd, 1950-1958eeeeeeeeee 90 25. Death rates per 100,000 from diarrhea and enteritis, T. B. of respiratory system and pneumonia, Thailand, 19%19580000000000000000eaeeeeeeee 91 26. Life expectancy for Thailand by sex and age, 1937-38 and 1947-48eeeoeeoeeeeeeeeeeeeeoeeeee 91+ 27. Crude birth rate, crude death rate, and natural increase rate, Thailand, l933-l978........... 95 28. Estimated midyear population and per capita income, Thailand, 1951-1960eeeeaeeeeeeeeeeeoeeeeeeeee 103 29. Manpower needs at different levels of education, for Th‘fllnd. 1960-1986eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee 110 30. Manpower needed per year and the actual number produced by the educational system, Thailand, 1963.00.00.000000000.0.0.0000...0.0.0.0000... 111 31. Percent distribution of respondents in two Photharam samples, by age, and of corresponding married women in 1960 census for Ratburi and country as O whole...................................... 156 32. Modernization and live births, Photharam sample, 1965000OOOOOOOOOOOOOOO00.0.0.0...0.0.0.000... 157 33. Number of living children and "ideal" number of Children per woman, by age, 1964 and 1965 PhOtmu samples............................ 158 34. Percent and cumulative percent distribution, by motivation class, 1964 and 1965 Photharam 8.1133108....o.........................o....... 160 vii ". a‘lL': Are *5 v ”NC ‘5‘ Table 35. 36c 37. 38. 39. 41. 42. 43. Number of ineligible and eligible women and number and percent of contraceptive users, by age. 1965 Photharam sample ............... Area of rice production by region, Thailand, 1960.00.00.0000000000.00.000.00...0.0.0.0.... Rice production in Thailand: planted area and total yield, l907-1960....................... Paddy yields per acre. Mil-and, 1908-1964“ e e e a e 0 Rice export, Thailand, 1960-1966e e e e e e e e e ea e e e e e e main market for Thai corn, 1967 (January-June 6Xp0rt3)..................................... Production of cassava and export of its flour, Thailand, 1957-19590eeeeeeeeeeeeoeeeeeeeeeeee Production of fisheries, Thailand, 1948-1961 (catch.1anded-weight in thousand metric ton). Ekpor‘ts Of fiSh’ n1‘mm, 1957-1963. e e e e e e e e e e e 0 viii Page 162 167 169 170 175 177 177 180 182 9. 10, 12 13. 14 15 36 Ar: 3;. ("J "'3 ., Fe Po Cr Tr. Figure 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 12. 13. 14. 15. LIST OF FIGURES Physical feture Of Thailand.................... Three-stage model of demographic transition with three types of correspondent age-sex stmctureS................................. The four natural regions of Thailand........... Areas of different density, Thailand, 1960..... Net migration by administrative region, Thailand. 1958 (in thOUSfind)eeeeeeeeeeeeeee Age-sex structure of the population of Thailand, 1937-1960eeeeeeeeeeeaeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee Age-sex structure of the population of the Central Plain:and Southern regions, Thailand, 1960.00.00.0000000000......OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO Age-sex structure of the population of the North- east and Northern regions, Thailand, 1960.. The relationship of age to marital status, Thailand, 1960eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeaeeeeeeeeee Percentage distribution of the labor force, Th‘mnd, 1914’7-198700000000000000OeeOeeeaee Estimated population growth of Thailand, 1911-1980eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee Population projection for Thailand, 1960-1980, by Gil—1.9 ‘nd Chalothorn.................... Crude birth rate, crude death rate, and natural increase rate, Thailand, 1930-1978, revealing stages of transitional growth.... Trend of population growth in Thailand, 1960-20u7000OOOOO0.0.0.0.....OOOOOOOOOOOOO. Population growth in Thailand, 1910-2000....... Page 13 45 48 52 59 6O 61 67 76 82 85 96 113 122 Figure 16. 17. 18. The effect of alternative population growth rates upon social welfare costs for ThAiland, 1970-2000eeeeeeeeeeeeeeoeeeeeeeeee Per capita GNP and population growth, Thailand, 1960-200000eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee The Freymann model of family planning program... Page 124 126 141 LIST OF APPENDICES Appendix Page A Assumptions Applied in the Population Projections made by Gille and Chalothorn..... 197 B Stycos' Critique of the Orthodox Birth Control mvementeeeeeeeeeeeeeaeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee 201 xi One of th task is the rap lost of the uni Pofifittion is h E Iillions and 1’ “on: th. co- ? FWD-kilo: °°°n°3i¢ condit; bars of , Socie‘ well known 01am; lent in as. of Other comhoditic CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION One of the major obstacles confronting the national development task is the rapid growth of population. This is especially true for most of the underdeveloped countries whose annual rate of growth of population is high. Thailand, whose present population is approximately 34 millions and whose annual rate of growth is as high as 3.2 percent, 1. among the countries in this category. %‘ Population growth is both cause and consequence of social and economic conditions.1R Too rapid growth of population often places mem- bers of a society under undue pressure simply to survive. India is the well known example. Improvement of food production, or food procure- ment in case of those countries whose economy is that of producing other commodities in exchange flar food from other countries, is thus among the priorities. Following this problem.are other economic pro- blems derived from.the scarcity of resources to be divided among the rapidly expanding population, for instance, the shortage of capital, the rising price of land, the lowering of wage rates and unemployment. Mhny social problems are also derived from rapid population growth, for instance, education, health, and housing. One can list all functions of public administration but will not find one which is not affected by the growth of population. 456 On the other hand one will find that many social and economic conditions affect population growth. The most obvious factor known to accelerate population growth is the improvement of medieal technology 1 which helps to r1 Religious attitudc ntes tnd strong : to be found among teristics tend to While urbanized c F°Wlltion ’11! - factor whi 5“" “y it is un solo factor “fee “‘1 Iconoxic cond consequenc. of on bulldog differ“ tinted With other in515nm, 13°ch sitution of h" i of food, Hit in We. a good Sour which helps to reduce the death rate while the birth rate is still high. Religious attitudes and beliefs are other important factors. High birth rates and strong resistance to birth control, for instance, are likely to be found among the Catholics and the Buddhists. Traditional charac- teristics tend to support the preference for relatively large families, while urbanized characteristics tend to help reduce the size of families. Population growth is viewed as important - though by no means the only - factor which affects social and economic conditions. In the same way it is unsound to think of any social or economic factor as the sole fictor affecting population growth. Population growth and social and economic conditions are to be understood as being both cause and consequence of one another. Social class, for example, which.usually includes differences in income level as one of its components, is asso- ciated with other phenomena affecting fertility and mortality, for instance, health and education. The word "starvation" connotes the situation of having nothing to eat, which issthe problem.of deficiency of food. But in India many persons starve to death while many sacred cows, a good source of protein, are roaming the villages and cities. Eggpgse and Scopg fix The purpose of the dissertation is to analyse the contemporary situation of population growth in Thailand under the guidance of demo- graphic and social theories. Jhore specifically the purpose is to explain how population growth.affects the socio-economio composition of the country; to explain.and predict the impact of socio-economio fectors upon the growth of population; and to explain socio-economic flotors relating to food production and family planning. The society under study is Thailand. The study will cover general problems pertaining production and famil to answer these ques Thilmd? Hill the 15 fail: Filming I» out. and Will there I tease stuqy in . di: . Various them-is ”1m t° ”1' Problem tions Will be lids re Emmi d“ obtun. of th' t41°01'14”, and . 3 problems pertaining to population growth with special emphasis on food production and family planning. In other words an attempt will be made to answer these questions: Is population growth a real problem for Thailand? Will the country be able to feed her increasing population? Is family planning necessary for Thailand? If so, should it be carried out, and will there by any possibility for success? As for the latter, a case study in a district area in Thailand will be discussed. his hodologz F Various theories in demograplw, sociology and economics which relate to the problem of population growth will be outlined. Observa- tions will be made regarding the actual situation in the country. Ehpirical data obtained will be used to test the plausibility of some of the theories, and, at the same time, theories will be employed to explain and predict the future. Deductive meaning from secondary data will be used. Statistical techniqueswill be applied where pertinent. - . Thailand Today For a better understanding of the discussion which will follow a brief description of the country is necessary. Thailand is a small, independent, tropical country located in the Southeast corner of Asia with a population of 34 million. Its form of government is a unitary, parliamentary, constitutional monarchy. Its area approximates 514, 000 square kilometers or 200,000 square miles divided into nine administrative regions and 71 provinces. The economic, social, and cultural life of the country focus on the capital city of Bangkok on the Chao Prays River, 25 miles inland from the point '. ’. .- BENGAL BAY OF \ . MM 5 Wt % A ‘4 4 “N! L o ‘- Wt"; TA” " fl 3 I" A?“ 1’ '7 4 g \\ \ 'z 1a, t , 'u/% | it \ -‘ ’ , I . .1 \ N K ,, /' P A Jsima “I, f ' ’ ’l/NM/lll/flflw Wfl/é/flw/M/I/I/uy V‘x \ ”’1 WWW/[Mr \\ . 8‘6“) I "94131111 \ a; a 9 A} mfit Q0 V4 ‘1 A ‘v t g g V/ GULF OF \ ‘- Q3. If” ' TH M LAND o o 30 .6 a o , r' '3) A! Figure 1. Physical feature ' ” ' ‘r 0 of Thailand .1 ‘ 0 MW)” I """ ‘I we: mum ’3 . hamarat W ‘6 "Efiluwm .1 \.-:~. e \I k: ' Principal province tare the river finger; into foil central plain dz»- un‘ the eastern : the west and field The lungs Zinese linggisti trees. The Sub-c mi th Haley la: .'-.5 for dialects, of the northeast, 5:031- The WHO 1:: 971331? education teen. Sec ondary ‘ IDiversitzies Alto its in the north 9 A-E§T‘i°ult‘.1r -58 economy of "”1 C. h ‘M of secondar- ‘W’. field cro ribs. , ‘5' elite:- bu "d 311' Sad for fOOd. where the river flows into the Gulf of Thailand. The country is roughly divided into four natural regions: (1) the mountainous north, (2) the central plain drained by the Chao Freya, (3) the northeastern plateau and the eastern regions, and (4) the peninsula, shared with Burma along the west and Malaya to the south. The language is Thai - a monosyllabic, tonal, branch of the Indo- Chinese linguistic family. Chinese and English are used in many urbanized areas. The Cambodian language is used in one of the northeast provinces and the Malay language is used in at least four provinces in the south. As for dialects, there are three of them, i.e., that of the north, that of the northeast, and that of the south. Buddhism is the national reli- gion. The two important religious minorities are Christian and Islam. Primary education is compulsory and free between the age of eight and four- teen. Secondary education in government schools is free. There are nine universities altogether. Six are located in Bangkok. The remaining three are in the north, the northeast, and the south. Agricultural pursuits occupy 83 percent of the population, and the economy of Thailand is distinctly a "rice economy". Among the crops of secondary agricultural importance at present are coconuts, rubber, field crops, fruits, pulses, corn, cassava, chilies, and various fibers. 'Uater buffalo and cattle provide the draft power on the farms and road transportation in rural areas. Hbgs, fowl, and pond fish are raised for food. Fishing ranks second only to agriculture in the nation's economy, and fish, both fresh and saltawater, and other seafoods play an ex- tremely important role in the nutritional status of the people. The government encourages both pond fish culture and shrimp farming. mun shrimp is The princi; cipel imports are neat, and fuel oi inported foods, b usully consumed ; Hater trans] Pomtion, carryix Ln utensive mile W0 track fans 0 ”Eions. Highvays both in qmntity a; 11103, EN-Surfm Frozen shrimp is exported to the United States. The principal exports are rice, rubber, tin, and teak. The prin- cipal imports are manufactured goods, mechanical and transport equip- ment, and fuel oil. Actually about 7 percent of food requirements are imported foods, but they are predominantly "luxury" items and are usually consumed in Bangkok and other major cities. Hater transportation is the most important means of inland trans- portation, carrying about three fourths of the country's freight traffic. An extensive railway system with approximately 2,000 miles of meter- gauge track fans out from angkok, extending well into the four major regions. Highways, compared to that of ten years ago, are much improved both in quantity and quality. The total length is approximately 7. 920 miles. Hard-surfaced roads now radiate out from Bangkok for several hundred miles, and commercial trucking is rapidly becoming a major means of transport. The family as a unit, averaging 6 persons per household, is the most important institution in Thai rural life. The rural family usually lives in almsmall house on about .10 acres of land. The average family has at least one or two buffaloes as draft animals. Family members are the main source of labor. The village is the most important social unit, next to family, in rural areas ..;_‘-The survival of the families seems to depend on the village which gives them a warm feeling, protection, identity, and affords socialization. Organisation of the Thesis Chapter II presents \ selected demographic theories and related - w_.__._..-._— propositionsmaswa basis ands guide for theuanalysis ofgthe problems of population _ growth in Chapter IV and the later Chapters. The entire Ar -ov ‘ name: “i is dew intend. So atte of pogmlation gro‘ quences of popula‘ in Shapter II and seem-economic an- is found in Chap: sion of fertilit (.5 ject of family pl use presented he Presented in Cha‘ is concerned “it the Question of fat lire POE-‘flatic Implications of Chapter III is devoted to the presentation of demographic data for Thailand. No attempt is yet made to relate these data to the problem of population growth. Chapter IV contains the analysis of the conse- quences of population growth based on demographic theories presented in Chapter II and empirical data from Chapter III. Thewanalysis of the socigzgconomic-and cultural conditions as the causes of population growth is found in Chapter V. Considerable space is provided for the discus- sion of fertility and family planning. Acase study of the pilot pro- ject offamily planning undertaken in a rural district of Thailand is also presented here. The analysis is based on demographic theories presented in Chapter II and emperical data in Chapter III. Chapter VI is concerned with food production. The analysis is an attempt to answer the question of whether Thailand will be able to produce food for her future population. Finally, Chapter VII contains the conclusions and implications of the findings. Genermyr d8: poet of qmtit)’. qt 3..., attention is G and consequences in graphic theories I"m utility in the ”Pl“ production, and {mail it is an intention to sore idem included es the word propositions mphic theories and d IS a basis and guide f CHAPTER II SOME DEMOGRAPHIC THEORIES AND RELATED PROPOSITIONS Generally, demographic theory is concerned with the dynamic as- post of quantity, quality, distribution and composition of populntion. Here, attention is given to the problem of population growth, its causes and consequences in relation to socio-economic conditions. All demo- graphic theories presented in this Chapter have been selected for their utility in the explanation of the problems of population growth, food production, and family planning, the main foci of this study, Although it is my intention to use theory in a broad sense I am also aware that some ideas included can hardly be regarded as theory. This is the reason the word propositions has been included in the Chapter's title. Demo- graphic theories and related propositions are presented in this Chapter as a basis and guide for the consideration of the problems of population growth in the later Chapters. It is hoped that this procedure will avoid congestion and confusion in those Chapters reserved for the presentation of data. In keeping with our problem, demographic theories and related propositions have been groupped into four categories: (1) those which explain component factors and trends in population growth in general; (2) those supporting the stimulation of population growth; (3) those discouraging the stimulation of population growth; and. (1!) others relating to population growth. Theories and propositions in the fourth categoryc- ; do not fit into the other three categories but are related to our parti- cular problem in some way or are distinctive in some respects. 8 Change of births, de Period, Pn be number of dea Pr: = Po + (3 the number of "Mt“Nl incr In the tion 13 inapp for the my the worlds 9. PNSent when hit th‘ ‘ being latex-ad effect 0 MW AQQOmi: ”\ms 19, 2. This to. ‘11: New. J1: IE1 Ec, a. Theories and Propositions Emplaining Components, and Trends in Population Growth in General Theory of the Component of Population Changgl Change in size of population results from changes in the numbers of births, deaths, and migration. Let Po be population at beginning of period, Pn be population of end of period, B be number of births, D be number of deaths, 141 be migration in, and Mo be migration out. Then Pn 3 Po 4- (B - D) + (241 - Mo)° Increase of population resulting from the number of births over number of deaths has been referred to as "natural increase". In the analysis of world population growth, the factor of migra- tion is inapplicable. In other words the world population growth con- sists of "natural increase" only. The equation just cited may be used for the analysis of population change in any plursical area smaller than the world, elg. a continent, a country, er a district. However, at present when quotas of immigrants into am country are so limited so that the annual number of immigrant is small, migration is sometimes being ignored in the analysis of population change in such country, as its effect On the total change is so small and insignificant. 2 The Malthusian Theog of Pomgtion According to Thomas Ihlttms (1798), population increases in a 1. Dennis E. Wrong, Pegs: tion and Society, New York: Random House, 1962. p. 2. 2. This theory is so well known and may be found in most demographic and economic books. As for example, here are three of them: Mentor Book, Three Essa s on Po tion: Thomas hithus, Julian Huxle Frederick Osborn New York: The New American Library, 1930, pp. 13-59; Clifford L. James, Princi les of Economics, New York: Barnes & Noble, Inc., 1931, pp. 212- 213: Gray Truitt, Vis_u_a;ised Principles and Problems of Economics, New York: Oxford Book Company, 193 , p. . geometric ratio whi] Unless popuhtion g1 tive checks" which 1 to marriage, and c checks" which slim;- disease, populgtion food. Th° pest hist W or universality. for mp1,. is obv th‘ “movement, of liters, the cont r01 Moubtofly lead tc mthuSim them-y d in food production 10 geometric ratio while subsistence increases in an arithmetic ratio. Unless population growth is checked by such preventive measures ("preven- tive checks" which prevent new life from being born) as moral restraint, late marriage, and celibacy, or by such positive measures ("positive checks" which eliminate life already in existence) as wars, famine, and disease, population nuMbers will outrun a nation's ability to supply food. The past history has shown that Malthusian theory lacks the quali- ty of universality. The population growth trend of the United States, for example, is obviously incompatible with such a pattern. Besides, the improvement of agricultural techniques, including the use of ferti- lizers, the control of plant diseases, and agricultural mechanization undoubtedly lead to the expansion of food production. The defects in Mblthusian theory derived from.his failure to foresee that technology in food production can be improved and that the beliefs and goals of individuals and social systems can be changed. This includes changes in positive beliefs and goals about having a larger family to the beliefs in the advantage of having a smaller family, when.society changes from traditional to an urbanized one. Theo of istic Curve of Pb tion Growth? Actually this theory was formulated in the first-half of nine- teenth century by verhult but it is now usually associated with R. Pearl and G. U. Yule (1871) or R. Pearl and L. J. Reed (1920). The essentials of the theory are that (1) Growth is regarded as 3. Joseph J. Spengler and Otis Dodfiy Duncan, eds., Pagination Theory and Policy, Illinois: The Free Press, Gleneoe, 1956, pp. 30-31. a function of t an increase in constant enviro increase, hence of population 1 dnction. Let I; Poinlation, the: Pictured as a 53 Where Ictual p0; N then decline This thecr P°Mti°n growt as Mtlmsign th- 59621210103 in to repmductiv, bah; 11 a function of the size and density of the population itself; i.e., with an increase in the size and density of a given population living in a constant environment, the birth rate will decrease and the death rate will increase, hence the rate of growth.decreases; and (2) The maximum size of population is limited by cultural conditions and technology of pro- duction. Let N be the actual population size, K be the maximum size of population, then R = K/Z, i.e., the increase of population might be pictured as a symmetrical bell-shaped curve which rises to the point where actual population is one-half the maximum (S - shaped curve), and then declines toward zero. This theory is under attack in many respects. It is not universal. Population growth did not always follow this pattern and it fails, just as Malthusian theory, to take into account the possible changes in the technology in food production, changes in aspirations, and changes in reproductive behavior. The Theory of the Demographic Transitiong Underlying the theory of the demographic transition is the notion of a demographic evolution correlated with stages in the process of modernization, from a Pre-industrial stage (Stage I) to Pre;western stage (State II) and then to a modern‘western stage (Stage III). Stage I is represented by the stability of population size caused by the balance of high, though fluctuating, death rates with high birth rates. During Stage II population begin to experience the effects of industriali- zation and modernization: improvement in nutritional and health standards help bring the mortality rate down while the fertility rate remains high. 4. wrong, op. cit,, pp. 25. The gap between aorta growth of population. influence of more mat cultural changes, pr fertility rate deck;- With low, though flue Nomad societies reached this final 5‘ mi“ Vhich is stir dam” of the trans: labeled, With ”Spec Growth Potential. 1&- Comsponding different types 01' . 12 The gap between mortality and fertility is widened, resulting in the rapid growth of population. However, at the end of this stage, with the influence of more mature industrialism associated with other social and cultural changes, preference for smaller families increases and thus the fertility rate declines. At Stage III a low mortality rate is balanced with low, though fluctuating, fertility rate. At present, only the fully modernized societies of western Europe, North America, and Australia have reached this final stage. The remaining regions of the world, except Africa which is still largely in the first stage, are in the different degrees of the transitional stage. The three stages are sometimes labeled, with respect to the change in population size only, as High Growth Potential, Transitional Growth, and Incipient Decline. Corresponding to the three stages of population growth are three different types of age-sex structure. The pyramid having a widened base is the age-sex structure characteristic of the Pro-Industrial stage. This is the structure of a "young population", i.e., one that contains a large proportion of young persons and a low average age. The "triangular type" having its two sides rather curved with a little bit wider top than the first type, is the age-sex structure characteris- tic of the Pro-Western stage. The proportion of children is relatively smaller and the proportion of adults is higher “than that of the Pre- Industrial stage. The "bulb type" is that of the Modern Western stage, showing an "old population", i.e., a population with a large proportion of old people and a high average age.5 5. For the concept of "young" and "old” population see Ansley J. Goals, "How a Population Ages or Grows Younger", in Ronald Freedman, ed. , Pogalgtion: The Vital Revolution, New York: mublmy & COe. Ines. 19 , PP. 7-5 e '21 Rate per 1 Stage 13 Figure 2. Three-stage model of demographic transition.with three types of correspondent age-sex structures Rate per 1000 60 _ _ _ - Death Rate -~.‘~ “““ Birth Rate .‘s Stage III Years 14 Transition theory has been developed after the pattern of popu- lation growth in Europe with the common assumption that contemporary underdeveloped areas will follow this pattern in their process toward modernization. But accumulated evidence from a variety of sources reveals many falacies in the assumption. First, the past trends of population growth in many countries do not conform to the transitional model, while those which conform to the model show variations in the timing and duration of successive stages of evolution that cannot be predicted from.the generalized model. Second, demographic and socio-economic situations at the starting point of the theory, i.e., Stage I, of European countries and that of Asian.and African countries were much different. a) Density. Population density of eighteenth and nineteenth Europe were much lower than that of the nonwestern countries (particu- larly in some countries as India, China, and Indonesia). b) Fertility. Fertility in.premodern.Europe was markedly lower than in Asian and African countries today. \ 0) System of land tenure. The system.of land tenure in.Europe was relatively pluralistic. Third, according to the theory, the "demographic gap" in Stage II was caused by declining mortality combined with stable fertility. It has been argued by many writers that one of the significant factors contributing to European population growth was more frequent marriage and the decline in the age at marriage.6 Fourth, in regard to the temporal aspect of the decline in mortality 6: Wrong, 02. Cite, p. as Nah \7u 15 rates occurring in Stage II, there is a sharp distinction between Western and non-Western countries. In Western countries the mortality rate was gradually decreasing, while in non-Western countries, because of the diffusion of culture pertaining to public health practices and medical technology, and with aid from the Hestern countries, the morta- 'lita’rate dropped sharply within a very short period of time. Despite all of the above criticisms the transition theory is firmly imbedded in demographic thinking. One may recall the usefulness of the "ideal model" for scientific studies in various fields. One does not expect to see the real phenomena duplicated exactly in all details in the ideal model, but to use the ideal model as a guide for studying the variations. This also holds true in the case of transition theory. All criticisms only show the variations of real phenomena from the model. The obvious truth in the theory, despite the variations from.rea1 pheno- mena, is the change from balancing high.mortality rate with high fertility to balancing low mortality with.low fertility. As a genuine theoretical model it can be used to predict the future growth patterns of the underb developed countries, particularly those administering family planning policies and program such as India, Taiwan, Japan, and Puerto Rico. The Theo of clical Growth of Po tion7 Both Ibn Khaldun and E. F. Wagemann maintained that population growth is cyclical, and their reasoning is quite similar in nanny respects. Bowmr, the former seems to place emphasis on planned change rather than change which happened to be derived from changing economic or socio-cultural conditions . 7e SPCDKICI' m mun. OEe Cite, pp. 3 & 13a l6 Khaldun related population change to economic, political, and social-psychological conditions. He held that, besides the actual situation, expectation of men about productivity in future played an important role in the changing size of population. Favorable expecta- tions made for fertility and growth while unfavorable expectations made for decline. In regard to the actual situation, good socio-economic conditions and political order stimulated population growth by increasing fertility and checking mortality. Population growth and density, in turn, caused a division of labor and rising income. Rising income sti- mulated luxury, rising taxes and other changes which in several genera- tions produced political decay, economic decline, and depopulation. Wagemann held that improvements in technology of production would help the society to overcome the law of diminishing returns, and thus enable tb population to grow larger. But at a certain point, the socio- economic conditions, e.g., social organization, capital formation, and production organization, will adjust in such a way that depopulation will be the result. The conditions of underpopulation would be again replaced by one of over-population to which further adjustments must be made. Thus, according to Hagemann, population growth will be cyclical resulting from sequences of alternating underband-over population. Theories and Propositions Supporting the Stimulation of Population Growth Following Router, 8 the theories and related propositions supporting the stimulation of population growth will be classified into four groups 8. Edward B. Router, Pomlgtion Problems, New York: J. B. Lippincott COWa 1937a PP- 13 139a fl. 17 according to the motivation which.underlied them: Social, Political, Economic, and Religious and Mbral. The Social Group The Theory of Sociality.9 Tracing from history the stages of social evolution, Adolphe Costa stated that the most important factor causing progress is the growth and density of population. He maintained that an increase in size and density leads to an increase of interaction, quantitatively and qualitatively, among the members of the society. ‘Exchanging, accumulating, and transmitting of experience from'generation to generation resulted in the progress of the society. He pointed out that the first great organized societies - Egypt, India, and China - appeared where the concentration of the population was great. The mili- tary power of such societies as Babylon and Egypt, were made possible by the large size and the density of population. 0n the other hand, decreases in size and density of population resulted in the decline of society. The decay of Roman Empire is a good example. Bis theory was put into the formula - Sociality a Social £23333 where social power 8 Population population size x density. Density is measured by the concentration of the population or the proportion of the big and small cities, to the whole population of the society. Hany"" matter was passive. The government had considered two reports, one from themgational Besearch Council and another from the National Economic Development Board. Theformer took the positionthat there was no problem of population pressure in Thailand, that an increase in population would i..." 4mm! 0- “" be advantageous, and that birth control would lead to the demoralization of the public. The latter report took the position that the problem of 3’9;E§;EEEE,VPPldHrBBUl£ in disadvantages to both social and economic progresswofmthe country, that research on population growth should be done by every governmental unit concerned, and that propagation of birth control may be done but that the practice of birth control should be left to individual decision. As a consequence the government decided in 1961 that birth control was an individual concern and that propagation offbirth control may be done but must not be too public.13 However, after the first National Population Seminar was held in 1963 the government attitude toward the problem changed. In response to the agreement of the Seminar that a family planning pilot project should be initiated to discover the reSponse of a sample of the 13. Sangad Plengvanij, "Reports on Family Planning in Japan and China" in National Seminar on the Population of ThailandI 1962, Bangkok: National Research Council, 19 3, pp. 0 77- 136 population to family planning services, the government approved the idea of asking for aid for launching an eXploratory demonstration project supported by the Population Council. Aid received from the Population Couneil was a grant of funds for a year's operation, and two technical M advisers - a social scientist and a physician eXperienced in family planning work. F ‘ktThe family planning project is called "The Family Health Research Project" because it is hoped that eventually this activity will be in- tegrated into the general health services, eSpecially as far as maternal and child health is concerned. Besides, it is felt that the name will % provide some security against intervention that might jeopardize the project. The project had both research and demonstration objectives and it was thus placed under the joint sponsorship of the National Research Council and the Ministry of Public Healthqlf’ An advisory committee composed of twelve high-ranking members of government and the two Population Cbuncil advisers (Amos H. Hawley and J. Y. Peng) was set up. This committee established a joint project, "The Family Health Research Project," involving the National Research Council, the Health Department of the Ministry of Public Health, and the Population Council. In 1964 a field survey was conducted as a first step in the project, the work of which will be discussed later. In discussing the family planning project, there are four points left to be mentioned. First, up to the present time the government .tt\1t§§§41.bttt' the propagation of birth control a. etm the same; i.e., propagation of birth control may be, donebut may nothbe .tcgfimhlcistgimd that“ the married couple shouldflknfiow their” own situation and make their a 4“ own judgment on how much children they should have. This shows that the ..,_ ...-... 137 government”itselfmrealized,the problem but did not want to be fully “Whey-pins. family planning program- The. thing Athat bothers the EOVBEEEEBEwW‘§ch° question of morality._ As stated before, discussion about sex is felt to be immoral: the government did not want to be viewed "—"' 11M asximmoral, so it did not want to get involved. The government was also 'worried about the morality of the youths which might be affected by the __ propagation about birth control. Perhaps the best argument on this matter is the statement made by Mr. M. C. Changla, Indian Ambassador to the United States in an address to the National Conference on "A New Look at l the Population Crisis," Dallas, May, 1960, asking for American aid to produce cheap contraceptives.lu Said Mr. Changla: "I must frankly confess that I am.very impatient of the arguments which are advanced against birth control and family planning on the grounds of morality and I hope you will forgive me if I speak frankly and bluntly. What is this morality which condemns millions of children to poverty and des- titution? Is it moral that children should be born into this abject condition or is it more moral that children should not be born at all?" It is rather paradoxical to speak about propagation that is not public, because by its nature propagation concerns the public. The govern- ment policy of "propagation, but not too public" will negate full support of the family planning project, even from the doctors themselves, because mostmpeople will think that the government does not really like this project. It may also lead to misunderstanding about the purpose of family planning. It‘willvbe difficult for those who need birth.contrdl informa- ticnwigiknqufrom,wh m they should seek suggestion and help. Also there 15. A. Nevett, S. J., Population: ggplosion or Control, London: Geofferqy Chapman, l96fi, pp. 29-30. 138 may be malpractice because the information is not sufficiently clear. The government should in the opinion of the writer, explicitly accept family planning as its policy. Allocation of budget for this purpose should be made: and full cooperation from every governmental agency concerned should be secured. Second, under the present circumstances, it is proper that the family P planning project should be called "The Family Health Research Project". Psychologically, its advantage is obvious. More cooperation and help from individuals and organizations concerned is likely to be secured by the project because its name refers to health rather than birth control. However, in the long run, problems of cooperation and coordination may occur when some administrative units and some individuals or organization who cooperate with this activity, begin to realize that the project is concerned with medical field only and is not directly concerned with their intellectual field and occupation. (Many government agencies may think that this is none of their business: it is the work of the Ministry of Public Health, not theirs.) This concern may, to some persons, seem trivial, but there is a possibility that the problem might occur and if it did, its effect could be very damaging. During the seminar on Human Fertility and Population Problems held under the auspices of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences in Brookline, Massachusetts, Mty 3 through 5, 1963, Dr. Frederick L. Hisaw, chairman of the third Session (Field Studies on Fertility of Human Populations), in his introductory remark, spoke as follows about the solution of the population problem: "The question that is before us, it seems to me, is that of finding the most promising possibility of a solution. This seems to rest on concrete efforts of three groups of intellectual disciplines: the biological 139 sciences, medicine and the social sciences."15 In the fourth session on the Economic Effects of Fertility Control in Underdeveloped Areas, Dr. Ansley J. Coale, Professor of Economics, who was the speaker, began his speech: "I am neither a sociologist, nor a biologist, and I am not a physician .......That's why I chose to say something on the economics of population......, it is a most serious aspect of population today."16 In fact Dr. Coale did not mean to be serious about what he said. Neverthe- less, his speech shows a pride in one's intellectual field. For this rea- son, it may be a good idea that after the project has been carried out for a period of time so that the purpose and practice of birth control is correctly known by more people, that the name of the project should be changed to "The Family Planning Project." Since this proposed name is rather neutral, there will be no problem as discussed above, and there may be more cooperation and coordination from the individuals and orga- nizations directly concerned. Third, administratively, it is probably wise that the project was put under the joint responsibility of the National Research Council whose role is research work, and the Ministry of Public Health'whose role is demonstration and rendering services. This structure would seem to foster the integration of research and action program into one adminis- trative unit. According to Freymann and Lionberger, the central goal of "action-research" is to build a program by which they mean " a coorb dinated group of activities maintained over a period of time, aimed at 15. Roy 0. Greep, ed., Human Fertility and Population Problems, Cambridge, Massachusetts: Schenkman Publishing Company, 1110., 1963. p. 76a 16. Ibid., pp. 143-1“. 140 fostering a particular type of human change."17 The controvercy about whether social scientist should commit himself to "basic" more than "applied" research.is well known and there is no need to discuss 31; here. However, in the writer's opinion, it is legitimate for a sociolo- gist to participate in such research since, being a member of society, it is obligatory for him to make a contribution when help from him is expected by society. Besides, by his involvement in action-research the sociologist will also have a chance to make some contribution to the building of basic science, as the action-research activities can also be related to general theory in the social science, verifying the theory or suggesting new formulations. Fourth, the government expresses concern over maintaining the pro- portion of Thais in relation to those of other nationalities. The govern- ment seems to feel that while the Thais are practicing birth control, those of other nationalities may not. Thus in the future the proportion of other nationalities to the whole population will increase, while the Thai's will decrease. Thus, the Cabinet Council, in a letter dated October 5, 1961 to the Ministry of Public Health, stated that as some other nationalities do not like the practice of birth control it would be a good idea to induce them to change both their nationality and their customs to be Thai.18 This anxiety may be lessened if the government would realize that about 98 percent of the whole population are Thais and only 2 percent are l7. Moye W. Freymann and Herbert F. Lionberger, "A Model—for Family Planning Action-Research", in Clyde V. Kiser, ed., Research in Family Planning&'Princeton, New Jersey: Princeton University Press, 1962, pp. ##3_445. 180 Sangad Plengvanlj, OE. Cite. p. "'77. 141 other nationalities. Besides, the majority of the other nationalities reside in urban areas, and in general the urban population tends to pre- fer small families. Logically, most of them would probably support birth control rather than oppose to it, There is no empirical data, however, for a pertinent judgment on this matter. Survey research concerning this matter would help in making a better plan of action. The Administrative Aspects The organizational structure for family planning programs of Freymann19 is a good model, and it will be used as a guide for the administration of the family planning program in Thailand. The Freymann model of family planning program is analogous to a key, since the program is meant to be a key to a human social problem. Figure 18. The Freymann model of family planning program 7. Training ‘{:::::-‘\:>\1. Services 7’“ a / :3 ,.. , g g 2 :v s o c: o 4'4 d 2. Information :3 (V g g p}! :5. , 53“ ‘E 'd' c3 E: .3 o d 903” . m m ‘5 3. Social Support “‘3‘ a) '53 - 9‘ 5 \ 5 6¢ 9. Research l9. Moye W. Freymann, "Organizational Structure in Family Pilining Programs," in Bernard Berelson et al., eds., Family Planning, and Population Programs, Chicago: The University of Chicago Press, 1965, pp. 321-334. 142 According to Figure 18, the force behind the key is the hand of public policy. The key itself contains nine lines, each line representing a basic functional element. These elements fall into three groups: instru- mental functions, control functions, and supporting functions. The Policy. Below are the important points that should be included in Thailand's policy for family planning. 1. Family planning should be accepted explicitly by the govern- ment as its policy. 2. The project should be a long term one, with sufficient alloca- tion of budget and personnel to gaurantee the continuity of its operation. 3. Propagation of the family planning should be explicit, pub- licly open, and extensive, with special emphasis on some specific group if such emphasis will make the program more efficient. 4. The family planning should not be seen as an isolated project but as a project operating in the whole fabric of the social structure. Its relationship with social units and institutions as both cause and consequence, should be taken into consideration. 5. Government aid, as an incentive, is a means to accelerate the family planning program. For instance, this may be in the form of free contraceptive divices. At the same time, government aid to the large families should be gradually reduced, and the amount of funds being saved should be transferred to the fund earmarked for the support of the family planning program. 6. If possible, there should be a social security program for the population. Mukerjee held that, "Without the adoption of a scheme of social security, no population can develop the proper psychological 143 attitude toward family limitation."20 His reason was that without social security people will continue to think of a large family as affording better security than a small family. 7. Priority should be given to the accomplishment of the compul- sory education prescribed in the National Plan of Education. Being able to extend compulsory education from 4 years to 7 years means an additional 3 years of keeping children in school. This will, more or less, help in reducing the feeling of rural people that children are an economic asset, and thus may help change their positive attitudes toward having more children. In other words, the spread of compulsory education will greatly aid family limitation in the rural areas. 8. The age of marriage should be raised to some extent. Actually the average age at marriage of Thai youths is not extremely young, i.e., male about 22 and females about 17. However, if there is any way to promote a higher average age at marriage, say 25 for males and 20 for females, it would shorten the reproductive period and would contribute to family limitation. In addition, it may be argued that the couples at this age are more mature and will act more rationally in having an appro- priate number of children. The Target. It is obvious that the target of the family planning program is the population. But the population is not completely homo- geneous and population having particular characteristic and distribution become many targets. From a strategic point of view, what geographic area should be given priority? Should it be rural or urban, Greater Bangkok or some 20. RadhakamalMukerjee, "motivations and values," in Clyde v. Kiser, Research in Family Planning, Princeton, New Jersey: Prince- ton University Press, 1962: p. 547. 144 other regional area? Conceiving this problem in term of the diffusion of culture, Du Bois saw urban population as the breeders of socio—cultural change, and that socio-cultural change flows from.urban to rural areas. He viewed the proletariat, a large proportion of which were peasants who migrated from rural areas to the cities and transformed themselves into proletariat, as the significant carriers of innovations. Du Bois thus made a proposal that the targets of research and action about family planning should be the white collar workers, the proletariat, and the peasantries, respectively.21 In other words the urban area is the first target and_rural area is the second target. The Du Bois' plan it is felt, ‘would not work well in Thailand. If.“-_H Many reasons can be given to support this position. First, there is a W -mm-Mmm...‘ a-v-F --.-.___n.,,._‘ , strong taboo against discussion of sex, eSpecially among females.) Second,‘ v . . .M... w" mass-media of communication does not work well among the majority of popu- \-- lation, as {there}? relatively low percentage of literacy (70.8%) and , “mw- " there is a high 939Poifii9p with a relatively low level of education. ‘Bence, the flow of communication about birth control depends heavily on\§ace-to- ww-mevw H‘ J J ‘~ u_._.." fa;gm§gntact. And as talking about sex is regarded as immoral, the Spread of birth control through personal contact between different groups is also mine ’0:- . undependable.\ Third, thespattern of internal migration in Thailand is greater between different rural areas (and mostly within the same region) rather than from rural to urban areas. Although there is a considerable number of migrants from various regions to Greater Bangkok, there is less contact between the migrants and their relatives and friends back home 21. Cora A. Du Bois, "Socio-Cultural A3pects of Population Growth," in Roy 0. Greep ed., Human Fertility and _gpulation Problems, Cambridge, Massachusetts: Schenkman Publishing Company, Inc., pp. 251-265. 145 due to the insufficient income to travel back and forth. Thus the prole- tariat is not the significant carrier of innovation from Greater Bangkok .‘H‘.’ to rural areas. Fourth according to the conditions mentioned above, if the idea of Du Bois will work at all, it will take a long period of time before a substantial portion of the rural population, the majority of the whole population, will know about birth control. Besides, the informa- tion they receive may not clear and may even be incorrect. From an ad- ministrative point of view it is not a good policy to Spend much resources on a small group of the urban people furst, leaving the larger group _ W‘s-am- oI:\ of rural people to be treated later. Besides, befbre the diffusion of WW“...— .- birth control from the Greater Bangkok to the rural areas is sufficient to change the attitude of the rural population toward fertility, the popu- lation problem may be so intense that it would be virtually impossible to 301% e In contrast to the model discussed, the author believes the following xx“ '“"*"" ““““ steps and emphases are more adapted to the situation in Thailand: (1) The M, ’mu-u- w---~.: “mud-«pump... mass-media, especially radio, should be utilized continually, with an emphasis primarily on urban population; (2) Emphasis in the field opera- W—m “any. - tions should ba‘placed on rural areas; and (3) Among the rural areas ‘vq—ar ”~— .' ""‘ ~m - highest priority should be given to the Northeast where the size of population and the size of family are the largest, but where per capita income is the lowest. Now, lethuswexamine the geographical aspect and ask which people receive services about birth control. In general, those living in Greater Bangkok are the largest group who receive services, since almost all of the hospitals that render birth control services are located in the Greater Bangkok area. These are some of the important ones: lh6 woman's Hospital; Chulalongkorn Hospital Family Health Clinic, vachira Hospital and Somdej Pra Pinklua Hospital. Mc Cormick Hospital in Chiengmai province (Northern region) is the only major hospital outside the Greater Bangkok area that renders services on birth control. According to Tuangpakorn Thampanich, of the total number of 1,200 women who contacted vachira Hospital for birth control services, 6&5, or 54%,'were residents of Greater Bangkok, and the majority of the remainder were residents of the Central Plain region.22 \K The Family Planning Association of Thailand renders services K.M " throughout the whole country, but actually its volume of business is very small. The action unit of the Family Health Project limits its survices within the Photharam district area of the Central Plain region, about 53 miles from Bangkok. It ismfelt that knowledge about the problem of population growth, in generel, should be taught at the high school level in the classes 9Ei§991al science. This would be a first step in consideringthe issues involved in the population problem to a large number of young children. Many'will not have the opportunity to attend the universities. At the university level, a portion of some course, for instance, rural sociology a; introduction to sociology, should include the problem of population growth. -.,_,.ru—~"“" Among the adults, the married couples should be regarded as the ~w‘“ most important target. Priority should be given to married couples who " , ”MW“ W N already have a large family (say, with 3 children and over) and.whose 22. Tuangpakorn Thampanich, "The Result of IUD Practice Among l,200 Clientele" (Mimeographed), paper presented to the Second Nazional Seminar on the Population of Thailand, October 12, 19 5. 147 family income is low (according to the standard set up for this purpose). Rules should be considered important to the family planning as well as 5—4 WM- females. One of the three biases of the orthodox birth control movement, as mentioned by Stycos, is the feminist bias. By feminist bias Stycos meant that the pioneers have been ardent feminists. Birth control programs have given emphasis to female methods, female patients, and female bene- fits. Stycos argues that with respect to family limitation, the male should receive as much attention as the female. Stycos gave three major reasons: First, the male is probably more serious about linking the size of family with income because it is the father who usually takes the res- ponsibility in earning an income. Second, in areas where land is scarce and holdings have become fractionated, the peasant male can hardly fail to see the problem of having additional children. Third, it is usually the male population which is first involved in the process of moderni- zation. Thus the male is in a much more favorable position than the female to be exposed to and influenced by the social changes occuring 2 around him. 3 The Instrumental Functions. 1. Provision of services. The selection of methods of birth control is, in general, left to the preference of the users. Besides sterilization and abortion which are the ordinary methods used in the hospitals, oral contraceptive are preferred by many especially in areas where the IUD has not been introduced or where it is newly introduced. 23. J. Mayone Stycos, "A Critique of the TraditionalfPlanned Parent- hood Approach in Underdeveloped Areas," in Clyde V. Kiser, ed., Research in Family Planning, Princeton, New Jersey: Princeton University Press, 1962, pp. 48l-h9l. 1&8 Ladawalaya Bunharnsupawat's report on the eXperiment on contraceptive pills and devices for family health shows that 90% of the women receiving birth control aid from the woman's Hospital used oral contraception}!+ It has to be noted that the period from the beginning of the introduction of IUD by the Woman's Hospital to its clientele up to the date of the report was only five months. In contrast, a report on Family Health Research Project made by Winich Asavasena indicates that the IUD is the most popular contraceptive among its clientele.25 It should be pointed out that the period from the beginning of the action unit of the Family Health Research Project up to the date of Asavasena's report is about nine months. Pertaining to the provision of services, the Family Health Research Project started its work in November 1964. A core staff, comprised of two women doctors and four nurses renders services in six clinics placed in different health installations in Photharam district.26 2. Provision of information. The two organizations which.provide '\ --...._._._..,.__,-w. p..-“ the information on birth control to the public are the Family Planning Wu .4.- ‘1' Wye—iv #v :Association of Thailand, ‘whose scope of work is throughout the whole mm mm u;- m-W “Mk” countryl and the Family Health Research Project whose working area_is_in Potharam district. Field workers were sent out, by the Family Health Research Project to visit every third house in the district to give m"..- P... 25: Ladawalaya Bunharnsupawat, "The Experiment on Contraceptive Pills and Devices for Family Health" (Mimeographed), paper presented to the Second National Seminar on the Population of Thailand, October 12, 1965. 25. Winich Asavasena, "Thailand", in Bernard Berelson, et al., eds., Family_Planning and Pooulation Programs, Chicago: The University of Chicago Press, 1966, p. 98. 26a Ibid., pp. 96-970 149 information and demonstrate contraceptive appliances. illage meetings “— WM.~M._, ____ conducted by medical personnel from the Project werealso the means of “WWW :- MDD‘-M‘ .‘ providing information about birth control to the villagers. ‘v “'M‘\1‘u‘u’wg. Other means of spreadinginformation in some countries and being recommended by Freymann are: Postal system - printed materials sent with little cost through the postal system to local leaders or individuals; Governmental and industrial groups as sources of information — Besides the organizations whose function is directly concerned with family plan- ning, the government and industrial groups may help in spreading the information by equipping, within their units having close contact with the people, the personnel to answer questions and provide information about family planning; Indigenous communication system - Minstrel and drama troupe are also good means to spread the message of family planning. In Thailand each of the natural regions has its own particular folk-singing and drama which can be employed for this purpose. 3. General social support. General social support may come from political organization, religious hierarchies, formal education structure, and community and group-level education. Political parties are likely to be an effective means to legitimize the new ideas (provided that all parties support this policy of the government) and this seems to be the situation in Thailand. As for religious hierarchies, in Thailand, at the present time there is still no explicit statement of attitudes from the high-ranking Buddhist monks. It is rather difficult to say how much cooperation the government will receive from the religious system. As for the formal education structure, it has already been discussed under the sub-heading "The Target". As fer community-level education, in many family planning programs, full—time community educational personnel are used as key positions in the community for supporting the family planning 150 program in general. In Thailand, the government officials of the Depart- ment of Community Development who reside in the villages are the right persons to be assigned this role. Pertaining to group-level education, it is felt that within smaller social units, a critical step in the adoption of an innovation is the achievement of a group consensus that the practice is proper for that particular group. It may be recalled that Du Bois' plan of expanding the information and practices about family planning is thought to be ineffective for Thailand (see p. 144). One of the obstacles to Du Bois' plan is a strong taboo against talking about sex. It cannot be hoped that birth control information can be spread by word-of-mouth from one group to another, for instance, from the white collar group to the pro- letariat. Even within the same major group, one cannot expect word-of- mouth interaction to spread birth control information. But, in the sense of "group level education" which is being discussed here, the emphasis is put on "small groups" without any reference to the classification made by Du Bois. 'Within the small group the members are so intimate that birth control can be discussed. If the leader of the group can be convinced that his attitude about family limitation is positive, he will influence the others, and when all the members have the similar attitudes, birth control will probably be practiced by all members of the group. The Control Functions. The family planning program, because of its newness and urgency in Thailand calls for leadership of high status to ensure that, within his authority, the program will be carried on by other units under his control and that cooperation from other government units will be gained. In Thailand the program is placed under the responsibility of the Ministry of Health. -~_-,_- .n._ .— 151 Personnel who take the responsibility at the national and pro- vincial levels must be carefully selected. At the same time these men must be vested with a larger degree of authority and freedom in making decision and in financial action to prevent the unnecessary delay of work. However, these persons have to report to the top leader regularly so that he can evaluate the progress of the program. As for peripheral supervision there should be a strong vertical line of technical supervision. Specialized technical supervision from above will help the members of the lower staff levels solve the problems which are beyond their capacity. Evaluation of the operation and progress of the program is essential to the future progress as problems will be cor- rected and improvement of work will be obtained from the information derived from the evaluation. -uir The Supporting Functions. Included in the supporting functions are training, finances, and research. Awtraining center, of course, needs to be set up. The training center faculty must work closely with the field service organization. Full utilization of eXperience in the field as a guide for the improve- ment of the operation is to be recommended. Sufficient and long-term financial support is essential to guaran- M a“... Mu... .. _- ""- "a ‘-~Q-~.u4p.~ g tee the continuity and the success of £5.“,;og;.a. In India, it was found that the lack of long-term financial assurances was the most serious single factor inhibiting the progress of the family planning program. At the same time, special committees may be set up at the national and the provincial levels. These special committees will help to increase fiscal flexibility, preserve fiscal responsibility, and bring various official departments and private groups to involvement with the program. 152 Research and evaluation should be an important function in the I-“ F‘k“ family planning program. Research will be required in reproductive bio- logy, clinical contraception, population statistics, socio-cultural aspects of family planning, and economic of family planning. Researchers from different fields may carry on research independently, but should keep in mind the relationship of their intellectual fields to other fields, to the whole program, and how their research contributes to the progress of the family planning program. Research funds in Thailand may come from the budget of the organization in which the researcher is located. Funds for research are also provided by the National Research Council, but the supply is usually smaller than the demand. Funds for research may be asked from foreign organization, for instance, the Popu- lation Council, and the Agricultural Development Council. \\ e e 27 ,gp/The Family Action-Research in Photharam District The family action research in Photharam district is under the Family Health Research Project. Administratively, it is an integration of research and action into one administrative unit, known as "action- research" program. Photharam which is. a rural district of Ratburi pro- “ ......,... .. HF... , w—v-uru- un- «a a..." 4.4- m. ma“. vince,_has.about 70,000 population, located some 53 miles west of Bangkok and can be reached by water-way, train, and car. ‘0. “‘-m-—.. --. 27. Report on the Family Action Research in Photharam District may be found in these places: 1. Winich Asavasena, et al., op. cit., pp. 95-104. 2. Amos H. Hawley and Visid Prachuabmoh, "Family Growth and Family Planning in a Rural District of Thailand," in Bernard Berelson, et al., eds., Family Planning and Population Pro- grams, Chicago: The University of Chicago Press, 1966, pp. 523-594. 3. Amos H. Hawley and Visid Prachuabmoh, "Family Growth and Family Planning: Responses to a Family-Planning Action Program in a Rural District of Thailand," in Demogrgphy; V010 3. NO. 2, 1966, pp. 319-331. 153 In August, 1964 a sample survey of knowledge, attitudes, and prac- tices regarding family planning was undertaken in Photharam district. Three months after this, an action program providing family-planning .9p advice and appliances was inaugurated in the district. In August 1965, a period of eight months after the action program had been in operation, a second field survey,1m2deled after the first, was completed.28 _From the research point of view, this operation is known as the "projected x...— g“..- M“ successional experiment," i.e., experimental research.which is concerned .1“ -M have 'HT‘V" H with cronological comparisons of effects in a single group over a period Both surveys employed a 25 percent simple random, though non-over- lapping, sample of married women 20-44 years of age whose husbands were living. The only difference in design and execution was the inclusion in the resurvey of questions about the action program. The method used in the two surveys was the same, i.e., the interview. Each household in the samples was visited by a trained midwife interviewer and interviewing was conducted in the respondent's house. The total interviews of the first survey was 1,207 and that of the second survey was 1,337. 'With a few exceptions, thswchsracteristics of the two population samples were so similar that differences in knowledge, attitudes, and practices could be regarded as effects of the program. ‘W—rfl" 28. The research and the action program were supported jointly by the Population Council and the Government of Thailand. Dr. J. Y. Peng, the Population Council Medical Adviser to the project, designed and provided continuous technical assistance to the action program. Dr. Winich Asavasena, Chief of the Maternal and Child Health Division of the Department of Health is the supervisor of the action program. The surveys were designed by Professor Amos H. Hewley; and the field operations were supervised by Mr. Visid Prachuabmoh. 'I 7" I m? b analll' 154 liefSummary of the Findings of the Resurvey The resurvey revealed a substantial progress of the action program. Nine of every ten women thought the program should be extended over the entire country. Twenty-three percent of the women who at the first survey disapproved of the practice changed their attitudes to approval, mainly because they had become convinced of the harmlessness and the benefits 6: birth control. Less than 3 percent of the former approvers had become negative. During the eight months of the program's opera- 9". tion the proportion of women who claimed some kind of knowledge about ”M-_n1_. contraceptive.methods was more than double. The actual practice of birth '-"-' --"~"-‘-v-._i*_,__, control rose from 1 to 21 percent of the eligible women (women who were not pregnaht,Asubfecund, or sterilized). Another l6 percent of the women in the resurvey planned to practice birth control in the near future. Among the women who were approaching or had already attained the ideal number of children (4 children) the frequency of actual practice of birth control exceeded the expected frequency. Only a small number of women #0 years old and over accepted clinical assistance. The General Socio-Economic and Demographic Characteristics of the Samples' Population Type of Family. Concerning type of family, the data from the two surveys were almost identical. The data from both surveys indicated 53% of nuclear families from the total households; 36% of extended fami- lies; and h% of unclassified families. The only differences were that the data of the year 196“ indicated 1% of the families having man and wife without children, while there was none of this type in the year 1965; and that the conjugal family of the year 1964'was 6%'while that of the year 1965 was 7%. 155 Size of the Household. The average size of household in the 196“ sample was 7.0 persons, while that of the 1965 sample was 7.2 persons. These.wers larger than the average household of the whole country which was 6~persons. I. Occupation. The 1965 survey affirms the finding of the 1964 study that about 63% of the household heads are engaged in agriculture. This proportion was smaller than that of the whole country which was about 78%. Of the remaining households, the data of the 1964 survey showed that 1h% of the heads were engaged in white-collar occupations and 21% were crafts- men and survice workers of various kinds. Less than 2% of all household heads were unemployed. Hawley and Prachuabmoh stated that the distribu- tions between'whihe-and blue-collar of the 1965 survey were not identical with that of the year 1964, but the diferences were slight and thus could be ignored. Size of farm. The 1964 survey indicated that one-third of the farm families had a farm which.was inadequate to feed their families. ‘The_ aversgewsige of farm of these families was 4.1 acres and average size_of household was Zsflfipersons. Those who declared that their lands were M adequate lived on farms of 7.8 acres on average and an average size of household 03.6.8 persons. “Agg_of the Respondents. The age structure of the Photharam district is different from both the Ratburi province within which it is located and from the country as a whole. Percentage of the respondents in the age-group 20-2# of both surveys was only one half of that of the whole country, while the percentage of the age-group no.uu of both surveys was much higher than that of the whole country. The fact was that a consider- able number of the youths migrated from the district. Hence, there was Elli“, 156 a large proportion of older people in the remaining age-groups. Table 31. Percent distribution of reSpondents in two Photharam samples, by age, and of corres- ponding married women in 1960 census for Ratburi and country as a whole Age of Photharam samples 1960 census respondent 1964 1965_ Ratburi Kingdom All ages ............ 100 100 100 100 20 - 24 ............ 10 9 18 20 25 - 29 ............ 23 18 2h 25 30 a 34 ............ 26 23 24 23 35 - 39 ............ 22 28 18 18 40 - 4e ............ 19 22 16 14 Source: Demography; Vel. 3, No. 2, 1966, p. 321. l:§5Education. Educational level of the two samples were similar. Three percent of the wives and 11 (1964) to 12 percent (1965) of the husbands had completed five or more years of formal schooling. In both samples the proportion of illiteracy was 20 percent. But among the literates less than 10 percent ever read any printed matter. Mean Age at First Marrisge. In each survey the average age of hus- bands was found to be a little more than three years above that of the wife (3.2 years in 1965; 3.5 years in 196%). The mean age at which women married for the first time was 21.0 and 20.7 for the 1964 and 1965 samples respectively. 157 Socio-Economic Characteristics and Live Births Mbdernization and_Liye Birth. From the 1965 sample it was found that as degree of modernization increased the number of live births decreased. Scale values of modernizationvmme derived from the sum of the weights assigned to each of several possessions (for example, automobile: 15: television: 7: electric iron: 6, radio: 5, etc.). Table 32. Modernization and live births, Photharam sample, 1965 Modernization scale Live births. per woman Under 5 5.1 5 - 9 4.9 10 - 14 4.6 15 - 19 4.4 20 & over 4.4 Source: Demography Vbl. 3, No. 2, 1966, p. 325. Education, Occupgtigg,_and Size of Farm. The data showed that as the number of years of formal school increased the number of live births per woman decreased. The data showed that live births of 5.6: 4.4: and 3.5 correspond to the formal school year completed of 0: 1.4: and 5 & over, respectively. The live births per farmawoman was 4.9 while that of the non-farm woman was only 4.2. As for size of farm and fertility there was no clear relationship. 158 The Ideal Number and Actual Number of Children From Table 33 it Will be seen that the "ideal" number of children in the 1965 sample was only 0.2 higher than the 3.8 children per woman in 1964 sample. In both samples the ideal number exceeded the actual number in the younger age groups, was equal the actual number in the 30-34 age- group (except in 1964 where the ideal number is only .1 less than the actual number), and fell below the actual number among women above 35 years of age. See Table 33. Table 33. Number of living children and "ideal" number of children per woman, by age, 1964 and 1965 Photharam samples 1964 1965 age Living "ideal" Living "ideal" children children children children per woman per woman per‘woman__per woman All ages 3.8 3.8 4.0 4.0 20 - 24 1.3 2.8 1.5 3.2 25~- 29 2.6 3.4 2.5 3.6 30 - 34 3.7 3.6 4.1 4.1 35 - 39 4.6 4.1 4.7 4.3 40 - 44 5.2 4.2 5.4 4.3 Source: Demography, vol. 3, No. 2, 1966, p. 325. Change in the Level of Motivation In order to find out the change in level of motivation resulting from the action program in the two surveys, the same three attitude questions were asked: 159 1. "If you knew of a simple and harmless way of keeping from getting pregnant too often or having too many children, would you approve of its use by married couples?" 2. "Would you like to do something to keep from getting pregnant in the future?" 3. "Are you interested in learning more about keeping from getting pregnant too often or having too many children?" The answers to these questions were combined to form a rough scale of motivation. Those who answered all three questions affirmatively were designated "highly motivated." Those who gave positive answer to the second and third questions, but who were rather negative to the first question i.e., showing a hesitant approval of contraception as a general practice, were regarded as "moderately motivated." ‘Women who dis- approved of contraceptive practice but who wish to engage in it anyway were categorized as having a "qualified motivation." Those who dis- approved of contraceptive practice but wish to learn about it were cate- gorized being "potentially motivated." Those who answered the three questions negatively were "not motivated." Those whose answer were so inconsistent (even more negative than those who were designated as "not motivated") were described as "inconsistent." The data in Table 34 indicate a considerable increase in the level of motivation during the year since the first survey. The proportion of "highly motivated" increased by 3 percentage points to 43 percent, while the cumulative proportion of all degrees of positive motivation increased from 68.4 to 74.9 percent. The proportion of "not motivated" declined from 24 percent, in 1964, to 7 percent, in 1965. 160 Table 34. Percent and cumulative percent distribution, by motivation class, 1964 and 1965 Photharam samples .1954 1255 Motivation class Percent Cumulativepercent Cumulative percent __percent Total 100 100 Highly motivated 39.7 39.7 43.0 43.0 Moderately motived 6.2 45.9 13.1 56.1 Qualifiedly motivated 9.8 55.7 1.2 57.3 Potentially motivated 12.7 68.4 17.6 74.9 Not motivated 24.2 92.6 7.0 81.9 Inconsistent 7.4 100.0 18.1 100.0 Source: Demography Vbl. 3, No. 2, 1966, p. 327. Further exploration of attitude change was done by the direct question: "Has your opinion toward the use of methods to keep from getting pregnant too often or having too many children changed in any way during the past year?" The responses to this question indicate a shift of 23% from disapproval (1964) to approval (1965), while only 2.5 percent of the -..—.a.—...on...-.o «'1. former approvers shifted to disapprovers. The largest changes took place _.'—-' ‘H‘ma— _.__,_.- . A- in the age-group 25—35. The reasons given for change from disapproval in: to spproval were: the respondents have learned that contraception is not harmful tomheslth: a friend has used contraception satisfactorily: and the respondents have decided that family limitation is a good thing to _m- ~-—_‘_ (100 is 161 Another interesting point about motivation is that over four- fifths of the women were aware that the decline in the death rate had reduced the number of births they need to have in order to realize a given number of living children. Knowledge and Practice of Contraception In the 1964 sample, two-thirds of the women interviewed had ab- solutely no knowledge about methods of contraception, but in the 1965 sample only 12% of the women claimed ignorance of contraception. Ignorance was greatest among those with no education, and least among women with five or more_years of education. Among those who claimed having knowledge about contraception, those with higher levels of edu- cation had a wider knowledge of the many methods available. ““ In 1964 only eight'women (less than 1 percent) were currently practicing contraception and only 19 (1.6 percent) had ever practiced contraception. By contrast, in 1965, 181 women were currently prac- hm inn—“fin .4" A. tiqing some form 9f_contraception, exclusive of sterilization. This representswgl percent of all eligible women in the sample (women who V°QE~P°P pregnant, subfecund, or sterilized). It was found that 29 percent of all couples who were not subfecund or who did not have a _W. V...— “‘ current pregnancy had done something to limit reproduction. Contraceptive users were concentrated in the age-group 25-39 .A~m__,_ - u-o-e._... y." -- h years. Contraceptive use increased with age until age 40. The major \s—w—M‘ . ".5...- , “H. .‘Wh—q’ —'"_ reason is that among the younger age-groups the ideal number of chil- dren had not yet been realized while among the oldest age-group most of them already had the number of children they desired and that there was greater resistance to innovation among older women. Contraceptive 162 practice among some women with one or two children was primarily for child-spacing purposes. Table 35. Number of ineligible and eligible women and number and percent of contraceptive users, by age, 1965 Photharam sample 20 25 3O 35 _40 All Class of women - - - - - 24 29 34 19 44 "898 Total number 124 242 303 377 291 1,337 Number pregnant 38 53 55 47 20 213 Sterilized * 1 15 23 41 23 103 Subfecund ** never preg- nant, married 3 or more years 2 4 - 5 8 19 No live birth since 1959 l 1 18 38 68 126 Number eligible women 82 169 207 246 172 876 Contraceptive users number 8 33 53 69 18 181 Percent 9.8 19.5 25.6 28.0 10.5 20.7 * Wife or hunband ** Never practiced contraception Source: Demography Vbl. 3, No. 2, 1966, p. 330. ABLMBJg __3rzt. £29m, other . .181 pontrecep’qiiretvssréz. F"??? ."m ‘EmFPEZPZE W?" ‘3"? Kent??? 199 <39 .89mfifvlfiss PR “1...?” ?WP.S9P'°..1.“8. PIPE- nsntmtgg often 0? havingmtoomany children. This indicates that 57 Para cent 9:,5h’ eligible women were either practicing or”want to practice contraception_at afuture date. Now, if the sterilized couples are added to both numerator and denominator, theproportion who have done some— thing or plan to do something to limit family size will rise to 62 percent. CHAPTER VI FOOD PRODUCTION "To me, it is disturbing that so many people think of the population problem only as num. bers of people versus available food. This seems to equate man with animal and food with fodder."1 'When John D. Rockefeller 3rd made the above statement in his opening remarks to the International Conference on Family Planning Programs, at Geneva, 1965, he did not mean to deny or denigrate the importance of food production in relation to the population problem. He only wanted to point out that there are considerations beyond the problem of food production at the subsistence level. There are the moral, spiritual, and intellectual aspects of life which cannot be omitted from the solution of the population problem. Who would argue that the population problem is solved "until society can offer every individual an opportunity to live - in the fullest sense - as well as to survive"? Nevertheless, in the discussion of population problems in the underdeveloped countries where food production is barely keeping pace with population growth, it is both customary and logical that food pro- duction receives the first priority. Here, the discussion concerning food production will concern two questions: (1)'Ni11 Thailand be able to feed her increasing population? and (2) Will Thailand be able to 1. John D. Rockefeller 3rd, "Opening Remarks" in Bernard Berelson, et al., eds., FamilyPlanninggand Population Programs, Chicago: The University of Chicago Press, 1966, p. 3. 163 164 increase rice production to the level that there is a surplus of rice for expert? The Over-All Aspects About Food Production The first thing to be pointed out is that, compared with many other developing countries, Thailand is a relatively abundant country. There has been no starvation in her history. Besides, there are always surpluses of foods being exported for foreign currencies. The main source of revenue derives from rice export. Rice is the staple food of the Thais. The main sources of protein are fish, poultry, and livestock. However, fish is the most important source, as Thailand is rich in water resources and thus fish is the com. mon source of protein that common people can find everywhere. The abun- dance of fish, however, is now diminishing. Agricultural Land Of the total land area of 128 million acres, 32 million acres, or 25 percent, are used for agriculture, of which 20 percent are under cul- tivation and only 5 percenta’re left uncultivated.2 Nearly three-fourths of the cultivated area consists of rice farms, while the remaining one- fourth is devoted to Other crops, such as coconuts, para rubber, field crops, and fruit trees.3 About 82.7 percent of all farmers own their cultivated land; 17.3 percent are renters. Over half of the renter are farmers of the Central Plain. 2. Fer more details about land use see Chapter IV pp. 100-101. 3. Ministry of Agriculture, Agriculture in Thailand, Bangkok: Parkdi PT‘dit Press. 1961, p. 10 II» [xi-II; D ,._... 165 Labor Force In Agriculture About 81% of the labor force is employed in agriculture which in- cludes fishery and forestry. The majority are engaged in rice farming. The level of education of the labor force in agriculture is relatively low. The degree of their exposure to the mass media of communication is low, and hence their world view is relatively narrow and traditional. Family labor has been utilized extensively. The number of female‘ workers is slightly larger than male. The size of the labor force in agricul- ture is gradually declining due to the shift of employment between 4 agricultural and non-agricultural sectors. Production Self-sufficing economy still prevails in most parts of Thailand. Farms are small in size, approximately 10 acres per farm family. Sur- plus is low, thus cash income is inevitably low. In general under- employment exists among agricultural labors. Farm tools used are simple and technique of farming is rather primitive. This results in low yields. A farmer is able to feed only about two other peoples.5 With the exception of rice which is the major food crop, other important food crops are maize, mung beans, cassava, and varieties of fruits and vegetables. The important livestock includes buffaloes, cattle, swine, and poultry. Fisheries, both fresh water and marine yield a substantial food source. Food surplus is large enough so that expert of rice exceeds a 4. Details about labor force are in Chapter III pp. 73-767 5. Chaiyong Chuchart, Agricultural Economics of Thailand, Bangkok: Mongkol Kanpim, 1960, p. 14. 166 million tons annually. Other exported food crops are: maize, mung beans, ground nuts, soy beans, coconuts, cassava, other kinds of beans, other food products made from these food crops, and fruits. A considerable amount of fish, both fresh and marine, is also exported annually. Rice Production Rice is the staple food of the Thais. It is so important in their lives that, in their language, the words "rice" and "meals" are syno- nymous. Besides, rice has been the main crop of Thailand, upon which the main economy of the country depends. Rice alone accounts for more than 50 percent of the total export which is the basis of foreign credit. Therefore the production of rice can be used as the indicator to answer both questions, i.e., whether Thailand is able to produce food enough for her increasing population and whether there will be surplus of rice for export. Area of Production Of the total area of agricultural land whichms about 26 million acres in 1960, 17.6 million acres were rice farms. Of this 17.6 million acres, about 14.6 million acres were planted area as of 1960, The total yield of rice was about 7.8 million tons. Rice production is found dotted throughout the whole country, but the major area is the whole Central Plain. The distribution of rice production by regions is shown in Table 36. 167 Table 36. Area of rice production by region, Thailand, 1960 Region Percentage Central 47.2 Northeast 38.1 South 8,0 North 60 7 Source: Chaiyong Chuchart, "Agricultural Economics of Thailand." Methods and Techniques of Rice Cultivation Broadly, the practices of rice cultivation in Thailand may be summed up in two methods: drysland rice and wet-land rice. The wet- land rice may be cultivated either by broadcasting and transplanting. In general, most of the Thai farmers still retain their traditional way of farming. water buffaloes still remain the prime power and are in- dispensable to the rice farmers. The wooden walking-plough with a steel share is standard equipment. Harvesting is still done by hands with the old type of sickle as the equipment. Modern farming techniques are being tried by some farmers. This includes rice breeding where the center of the project is the Rangsit Rice Experiment Station. Hybrid seeds may be obtained from agricultural experiment stations throughout the country, and thus it seems that among the agricultural innovations, the use of better seeds receives more in: terest from the farmers than most other practices. Fertilizer appli- cation has been practiced by a number of farmers. The main factors 168 inhibiting the diffusion of chemical fertilizer application among the farmers are: inadequate dissemination of right information, lack of wideSpread demonstration, and lack of funds to purchase fertilizer. As for mechanization, a small, cheap gasoline or diesel motor has become increasingly popular among Thai farmers as an all-round source of power and labor saving machine, Efficient, low cost tractors named the "Iron Buffaloes", designed and tested under actual field conditions by the Department of Rice, will be produced and sold to the farmers in the future. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, a second cropping of rice is practiced on only about 50,000 acres scattered all over the country 6 ‘With the completion of the Greater wherever local conditions permit. Chao Phya Project of irrigation it is hoped that a second crop could be cultivated on about 900,000 acres.7 Yield of Paddy ‘Within a period of about half century, from.1907 to 1960, the total yield of paddy has rising slowly. The average total yield of the year 1907-16 was only 3.0 million tons. In 1940 it rose to 4.6 million tons, and in 1960 to 7.8 million tons. 6. Ministry of Agriculture, op. cit., p. 21. 7. International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, A Public Development Program for Thailand, Baltimore: The John Hopkins Press, 1963, p. 39. 169 Table 37. Rice production in Thailand: planted area and total yield, 1907-1960 Year Planted Area Total Yield* (million acres) (million tons) 1907-16 0.6 3.0 1917-26 - 6.3 4.0 1927-36 7.9 4.4 1940 8.5 4.6 1950 13.7 6.8 1960 14.6 7.8 * paddy Source: Data 1907-1940 from Ministry of Agriculture, "Agricultural Statistics of Thailand", 1961. Data 1950-60 from Ministry of Agriculture, "Agricultural Statistics of Thailand", 1962. Although somewhat fluctuating, the average yield per acre in the long-run from 1908-1964, shows a downward trend. The average yield per acre for the years 1908-1912 was 704 kilogram per acre, while that for the year 1960-1964 was only 562 kilogram per acre. This difference is a reduction of 142 kilogram per acre. It seems that the best explana- tion of this reduction of yield per acre is the exhaustation of land. However, in the short-run period from 1946 to 1964 it is seen that the trend seems to be one of gradual increase. At present, there is no information to explain this short-run upward trend, but it probably be the result of the new rice breeding and, perhaps the proportion of farmers using fertilizer has increased. Anyway, at present this short-run upward trend of paddy yield per acre may not continue. To be 170 certain, perhaps, waiting to see the yields of another ten years will be necessary. Table 38. Paddy yields per acre, Thailand, 1908-1964 Paddy Yields Year Kg. / Acre 1908 - 1912 704 1913 - 1917 608 1918 - 1922 610 1923 - 1927 671 1928 - 1932 570 1933 - 1937 542 1938 - 1942 570 1946 - 1950 489 1951 - 1955 499 1956 - 1960 499 1960 - 1964 562 Source: Siribongs Boonlong, et al., "The Proportion between quantity and Income from.Agricu1tural Product and the Population size of Thailand", paper presented to the Second National Seminar on the Populations of Thailand. (Mineographed) Inabrief summation, the trends of rice production in the long-run are: (1) increasing area of production: (2) increasing total yield and (3) decreasing yield per acre. The summation indicates that rice farming in Thailand from the past up to present time is still of the "extensive" type. In order to get a larger total yield, more planted area is needed. 171 It also indicates that there is ample room for the improvement in pro- duction methods. Food Production and Future Population Now it comes to the point that the question of whether Thailand Will be able to feed her increasing population must be addressed. In order to answer this question, let us look first at the data in Table 37. In 1940 the total yield of paddy was 4.6 million tons: and in 1960 it was 7.8 million tons. This indicates an increase of 3.2 million tons within the period of 20 years. The rate of increase in rice pro- duction during this period amounted to about 3.5 percent per year while the rate of population growth from 1947 to 1960 was about 3.2 percent. Thus the rate of food production was .3 percent in excess of the rate of population growth. According to the population projections made by Gille and Chalothorn, the population of Thailand in 1980 would range from a low of 48 millions to a high of 54 millions. Assuming that an average person consumes 188 kilograms of paddy per year,8 the 48 million population (lowest projection) would require about 9.0 million tons of rice per year: the 50 million population (moderate projection) would require about 9.4 million tons; and the 54 million population would require about 10.2 million tons of paddy. First Assumption9 Assuming that there is a yearly fluctuation in 8. This figure of 188 kilograms consumption of paddy per year, per person is from Prakrit Bhamonchant, "Increasing Agricultural Production and the Increasing Population of Thailand," a paper presented to the Second National Seminar on the Population of Thailand, 1965. (Mfimeographed) 9. Assumption of Prakrit Bhamonchant: See Ibid. 172 rice production and that there is no certain trend of the increase in total yield, and also assuming that in the year 1980 total yield of paddy will equal that of the year 1962, (i.e., 9.2 million tons, the highest yield Thailand ever produced in the past fifteen years) then in the year 1980 Thailand would have produced barely at subsistence level for a population of 48 millions. If the number of population at that year 'would be higher,say 50 or 54 millions, then there definitely would be hunger! Second Assumption Assuming that the rate of increase in rice pro- duction at 3.5 percent per year will continue, then in the year 1980 the total yield of paddy will be about 13.3 million tons. This total yield will be more than sufficient to feed even the largest projected popula- tion i.e., 54 millions, because the requirement for this number is only 10.2 million tons of paddy. The important point, here, however, is how can it be certain that the 3.5 percent rate of increase in rice production will continue? In order to clarify the answer to the above question, two points should be considered. First, with the present conditions of production, will the increased trend of production continue? Second, is there any possibility to accelerate the rate of production? In regard to the first point, it means that the same total planted area of the year 1962, which is 16.4 million acres10 will be utilized. For other "present conditions" it is assumed that at present there exist some factors which help to enhance the effeciency in rice production, and this is reflected in the increasing in yield per acre, i.e., the average yield per acre 10. Ibid. 173 has risen from 489 kilograms of paddy per acre during 1946-1950, to 562 kilograms per acre during 1960-1964. This may have been due to any of these factors or the combination of some of them: the increasing number of farmers who used better seeds, application of fertilizer has been increased in recent years; pest and disease control have been applied to more farms by the help of the government agencies; and increase in number of farms where second cropping can be practiced due to the improvement of irrigation systems. One or more of these improvements is possible, because these innovations were first introduced to the farmers at least prior to the World War II, and some innovations have gained some popu- larity among an important fraction of farmers. The implication of the above discussion is that even with the existing conditions, the present increased rate of rice production.will probably continue. Now, concerning the second point, if it is possible for Thailand to accelerate her rate of rice production and increase the total yield, the answer is definitely affirmative.- At present, rice pro- duction in Thailand has not yet reach its full capacity. All the avai- lable land has not yet been brought under cultivation and all scientific techniques have been applied to only a fraction of all farms. An in- creased total yield can be done by bringing all of the uncultivated land (5% of the total agricultural land) under cultivation. Increased rate of production or yield per acre can be accomplished by the application of scientific methods and techniques to as many farms as possible. In fact, there is much opportunity left for combining the capacity of land with other factors to produce higher yield per acre in Thailand. During 1956- 1960, for instance, paddy yield of Japan was about 1,466 kilograms per acre, while that of Thailand was only 562 kilograms per acre. The target 174 of rice production in Thailand thus should be to double the yield per acre. In a democracy, this goal depends heavily on the performance of the agricultural extension officials: how well can they demonstrate the innovations to farmers and how well can they convince the farmers to apply scientific techniques to farming? Another point has not yet been considered. Second cropping is another possible way which can substan;’ tially increase yield per acre. At present only a fraction of the total farms can practice second cropping. ‘With the improvement of irrigation systems the proportion of rice farms where second cropping can be prac- ticed will rise considerably. The Greater Chao Phya Project of irriga- tion alone will permit second cropping on about 900,000 acres of land. If this figure is right, then in future, yield on these 900,000 acres ‘will rise substantially since they would probably double their yields per year. From many reasons given in the previous discussions it is felt that present rate of increase in rice production will probably continue, and in 1980 Thailand will be able to produce about 13.3 million tons of paddy, an amount sufficient to feed the largest projected-population of about 54 millions, and will have about 3 million tons of paddy left for export. If the limitation of flamily size is accepted among the people the future population will be smaller and the amount of rice surplus will be larger. From.Table 39 it will be seen that within the past 7 years Thailand has exported rice at an average of about 1.5 million tons annually. The highest figures are for the years 1964 and 1965 which are as high as 1.9 million tons. Rice exports in the first half of the year 1967 is 933,613 metric tone, or 131,183 tons lower than for the same 175 period in 1966. It is expected that the total rice yield of this year will be smaller due to the drought during planting season. A good portion.of rice left over from last year will be kept for next years' consumption and thus the total eXport of rice this year will be smaller. Table 39, Rice export, Thailand, 1960-1966 Year (millicfieigttic ton) ($ Zillion) 1960 1.2 128.5 1961 1.6 179.9 1962 1.3 162.0 1963 1.4 171.2 1964 1.9 219-5 1965 1.9 218.8 1966 1.5 199.7 Source: "Bangkok Bank Monthly Review," July 1967. It is probable under present conditions of rice production suf- ficient rice will be produced.for internal consumption and for export only in the short-run. But, in the long-run there is no guarantee for this, because population tends to increase more rapidly than food. In short, extensive-cultivation will enable the Thai to live above sub- sistence level only at present and for a short-run period in the future. But in the long-run, if the same level of abundance will be maintained, Thailand must shift her old methods of rice production to intensive cultivation. 176 Production of Other Major Food Crops _Co_r_rl Thailand has a long wet season which permits two crops of corn a year. Corn can be grown in most parts of the country, but the real expansion of corn production took place after the werld war II due to the increasing demand from foreign countries, particularly Japan. A large proportion of the corn produced is for eXport. In 1958, of the total yield of 186 thousand tons, 163 thousand tons, or about 89% was exported. The expansion of corn production during the past fourteen years is substantial. During the years 1953 to 1958 the increase in.the total yieldjas about four times, or from 51 thousand to 186 thousand tons.12 From the year 1958 to present the increase in yield has been tremendous. The amount of corn exported during the first half of 1967 alone was about four times as much as the total yield in 1958. Since corn is generally being consumed throughout the country (although it is not a staple food) and since eXpansion of production is not diffi- cult, it is obvious that it can be a good substitute for rice, if, rice should become short or insufficient to feed the growing population. 11. Ministry of Agriculture, op. cit., p. 28 12. Ibid. 177 Table 40. Main market for Thai corn, 1967 (January - June exports) Main Markets Exported Weight (metrict tons), Japan 375.447 Taiwan 48,235 Singapore 37.595 Hongkong 30,455 Malasia 26. 693 Total (six months) 518,425 Source: "Bangkok Bank Mbnthly Review," July 1967. Cassava Cassava is another food crop being consumed throughout the country. It has become an industrial crop which brings into the country a large income from the export of its flour. Large areas where cassava is grown as a commercial crop lie along the Southeastern coast of the country. Table 41. Production of cassava and the export of its flour, Thailand. 1957-1959 Production EXport of tapioca value Year (thousand flour (thousand (million tons) tons)_ dollars) 1957 417.6 77.0 6.0 1958 487.0 124.7 8.9 1959 597.1 142.1 8.8 Source: Ministry of Agriculture, "Agriculture in Thailand." 178 Other Food Crops The other food crops that should be mentioned are mung beans, sugar cane, coconuts, fruits and vegetables. Sugar cane production is only enough for internal consumption and amounts to 70,000 tons annually. The surplus of mung beans and coconuts, however, is being exported. During 1961 about 26,447 tons of mung beans with a value of about $3.0 millions, and during 1955 about 6,820 tons of coconut products with a value of about $469 thousands, were exported. The soils and climatic conditions in various parts of the country are ideal for the production of tropical fruits and vegetable of all kinds. It is customary for the people to grow at least some kinds of fruit trees around the house for shade and for extra income from the sale of surplus fruits. This is also true for vegetables. In numerous localities, however, specialized gardens and orchards produce commercial fruits for the purpose of supplying local markets as well as for export to nearly countries. Oranges, pomelos, and tamarind are the principal fruits exported, and the leading markets for the Thai fruits abroad are Singapore and Hongkong. Livestock, Hogs, and Poultry Production of livestock is sufficient for home demand to be used as draft animals and as food, and there is a small number left to be exported. In 1961, about 68.9 thousand head of buffaloes and 55 head of bullocks and cows, the total value of both of which was about $6 millions were exported. In order to improve milk production a dairy project was recently set up by the Ministry of Agriculture with aid from the Danish government. An experiment station in the Northeast, under the supervision 179 of the Danish experts is now conducting an experiment on rasing Danish bulls and cows. The success of the project means the expansion of good milk cows throughout the country, and this means an increase in milk production. As for hogs, in 1961 a surplus of 80,713 head with a value of $1.9 millions were exported. The improvement of hog breeding is now underway. In every agricultural experiment station throughout the whole country good boars are available for cross-breeding with the native sow. It is thus hoped that in future hogs of good quality will increase in number. Since the last war, the Thai poultry industry has made considerable progress. The production is large enough to meet the demand for home consumption and yet there is surplus left for export annually. In 1961 a total of 779,587 head of poultry was exported, bringing the total amount of $422 thousands to the country. The improvement and exPansion of egg- production is now underway. The best laying strains of'Nhite Leghorn, Rhode Island, Barred Plymouth Rock and the New Hampshire were ordered from the United States and the Australorps from.Australia, for this purpose. These birds and their hybrids lay so well (highest record 322 eggs in 365 days) that there is an increased interest by many in egg- farms. About 100 poultry farms ranging from 250 to 3,000 bird capacity recently sprang up on the outskirts of Bangkok. Many more are due to appear.13 Fisheries Fisheries rank next only to agriculture in the extent and value among the basic industries of the country. Fisheries have a three-fold 13. Ibid., p. 214. 180 importance: as a source of protein food, as a means of livehood for a large proportion of the population,and as a rich source of revenue to the government. Marine fishing grounds of Thailand comprise about three-fourths of the coastal waters of the Gulf of Thailand and a long section of the eastern shore of the Indian Ocean, the total length of the coastline being over 2,500 kilometers. Table 42. Production of fisheries, Thailand, 1948-1961 (catch landed-weight in thousand metric ton) Catch Landed-weight Year Freshwater Fisheries* Marine Fisheries** Totil__——' 1948 41.0 120.0 161.0 1953 56.3 148.7 205.0 1954 63.4 166.4 229.8 1955 61.6 151.4 213.0 1956 65.7 152.2 217.9 1957 68.1 166.4 234.5 1958 51.3 145.0 196.3 1959 57.0 147.7 204.7 1960 75.3 145.6 220.9 1961 72.4 233.2 _305.6 * Includes fishes and prawns ** Includes fishes, prawns, shrimps, and molluscs Source: FAO, Yearbook of Fishery Statistics, Vol. VI, 1955-56. FAO, Yearbook of Fishery Statistics, V01. XIV, 1961. 181 Fresh-water fishing grounds of Thailand include many large interior rivers, of which those in the central area form, with innumerable canals, an extensive net-work, including many lakes, swamps and streams of large volume, and in which enormous amounts of valuable fish are found. Marine fish are more important, as a source of food, than the fresh- water fish. As seen in Table 42, the total catch of marine fisheries is larger than that of the freshwater fisheries for every year shown. In 1961, for instance, the total catch of freshwater fisheries was 72.4 thousand tons, while that of the marine fisheries was 233.2 thousand tons. The total catch fluctuates from year to year. However, an attempt is being made by the Department of Fishery to increase the catch. As for marine fisheries, a new research program is being developed to find new trawlable grounds to increase production. A survey of new trawlable ground in the Gulf of Thailand and Indian Ocean has now been completed. As for the improvement of freshwater fisheries, a program for the development of fish-culture was initiated by the Fisheries Department some 20 years ago. 'With the establishment of four Inland Fisheries Stations, the program has made slow but steady progress. Since the middle of 1951, with the introduction of "Tilapia mossambica", the provision of the technical services from FAO, the supply of field equip- ment from AID, an extensive fish-culture extension scheme has- been implemented. "Tilapia", because of its fast reproduction and growth, has become the most popular pond fish in Thailand. It is expected that before long it will be one of the common fish of the country. It is especially valuable for the inland provinces which are located some distance from the sea and the main rivers where there is a pressing need for fish. 182 Table 43. Exports of fish,* Thailand, 1957-1963 Year Wieght value (thousand metric tons) ($ million) 1957 19.1 3.2 1958 12.1 1.7 1959 8.5 1.3 1960 7.8 1.4 1961 9.1 1.7 1962 7.5 1.5 1963 6.9 1.2 * Fresh, chilled, frozen, dried, salted, or smoked Source: FAO, Yearbook of Fishery Statistics, vol. XX, 1964. There is surplus of fish for export each.year. From.l957 to 1963, however, the volume of exports shows a declining trend. From Table 42 we see that from.1957 to 1961 there is only a slight decline in total catch from the year 1958 and 1959, after which the total catch increases. The total catch in the year 1961 is even greater than that of the year 1957. The reason for the decline in exports is probably that there is an increase in local consumption of fish. II III I all I'll!" Ill Illll I .II II . CHAPTER VII SUMMARY.AND CONCLUSIONS Summary of the Findings The Over-All Aspects about Population of Thailand The current population of Thailand is about 34 millions and its annual rate of growth is 3.2 percent. The actual growth within the past 50 years has been enormous. In 1911 the total population was 8.3 mil- lions and by the year 1960 it increased to 26.3 millions, a three-fold increase. Projections “399,83191119 and Chalothorn indicate that the population of Thailand in the year 1980 will be between 48.5 and 54.3 millions. The number of immigrants to Thailand is small. Hence popu- lation growth is mainly due to natural increase. The largest numbers of people are concentrated in the Northeast w“, . w“ WV“ .0. andwthe Centralelain, and the smallest number in the South. The densi- ty of population of Thailand, in comparison with many nations in Southeast Asia, is relatively low, i.e., only 51 person per square kilometer. The density of population varies in different parts of the country, with the highest density (26-75 persons per sq. km.) found in the central and the eastern parts of the country. The western border, some parts of the northern border, and almost one-half of the southern part have the lowest density (1-25 persons per sq. km). The majority, or about 87%, of the population is rural. However, in the Central Plain only 75.1% of the total population is rural. Except for the migration to Greater Bangkok, the pattern of migration is between 183 184 different rural areas rather than from rural to urban areas. Thailand is a nation of young population. In 1960, the median age was 18.3 and those in the age bracket of 0-1# amounted to about #5 percent of the total population. The next ratio of the population is near to perfect balance. The majority of the population are Buddhist. Although the proportion of literacy is moderate (70. 8%), the level of M-flo .«v 4". education of the majority is rather low, as the level of education of Sltflfmgf the populationis at fourth grade of the primaryschool. The great majority of the labor force (82.3%) is employed in agricultural industries. Per capita income is relatively low (only $79). The annual farm family income is also low (only $250). The crude birth rate in 1963 was 46.2 and the crude death rate in the same year was 19.6. Over a period of time, the crude birth rate has been increasing while the crude death rate has been declining. In termsof the demographic transition, Thailand can be considered in the demographic Pro-industrial stage until 1953. It was from tms year, approximately, that Thailand first stepped into the Preéwestern stage and at present she is still in this stage. The Population Problem The dependency ratio of Thailand in 1960 was 124. Despite this high ratio, Thailand cannot be judged populated, because up to 1960, while the population was increasing, the per capita income was also in- creasing. This indicates that Thailand was still in the stage of in» creasing return. That is, increase in population was associated with an increase of per capita income. Besides, after considering the ca- pacity of food production, it was found that Thailand will still be 185 able to feed her population for at least 15 years, even with the present conditions of production. Thus, it can be stated that at present, and at least for l5 years in the future Thailand will not be overpopulated in terms of the criteria used. The above analysis, however, does not imply that there is no population problem. On the contrary, the high dependency ratio of Thailand, the major component of which is the young, points to many social and economic problems. Considering economic consequences of rapid population growth, the first clearly seen is the shortage of land per person. At present the average size of a rice farm is already small, only 10 acres per farm family. The growth of population will result in even smaller farms per family, which will greatly reduce the efficiency in rice production. The farmer goo-'- will become poorer and if such situations continue, hunger may occur. Inefficiency of rice production means the inability of food production to keep pace with the increasing population, which besides the shortage of food, also means the loss of a large amount of income from rice exports. Another problem which will result from the rapid population growth rate is unemployment. As Thailand is short of capital to create jobs for the increasing population, over-population in the agricultural sector will ensue. At the same time, unemployment will prevail among the indus- trial workers. All these conditions, when they occur, will spread poverty throughout the whole country. Among the_important social.consequence ofpopulation growth, is that of health. With increasing population the existing shortage of hospitals, doctors, nurses, medical and health facilities will worsen. In education, the growing demand for manpower with higher levels of 186 education and skills will not be met by the educational system. Actually, even to accomplish the new educational plan which calls for an extension of compulsory education from 4 years to 7 years cannot be carried out because of the lack of various resources. other problems relating to social welfare will also appear. The weight of opinion on the part of certain governmental officials and scholars in Thailand has been in favor of population growth. Some argue that population growth will increase social and military power. Others argue that population growth will enhance the division of labor and promote industrial eXpansion. Still others are fearful of advo- cating a policy that may engender immorality while some assume that popu- lation growth will automatically decline. Each of these arguments have been countered with evidence or logic. The conclusion reached is that the rate of growth is already high and that steps should be taken now to avert serious social and economic consequences of present population dM trends 0 Solutions ‘While a condition of over-population does not yet exist, it was found that the problems of population pressure seems to be beginning. Many problems, both social and economic are already occuring and will probably intensify in the future if the present population growth con- tinues. The solutions proposed are of two fold: reducing the rate of population growth, and increasing food production, both to be done simultaneously. 187 Reducing Rate of Population Growth The strategic point in reducing the rate of population growth is the family. Ability to reduce the size of family also means the ability to reduce the rate of population growth as a whole. In terms of social structure it is felt that the rural areas should receive the priority over the urban areas, as the majority of the population of Thailand still resides in rural areas. In terms of geographical area, it is felt thst the Northeastern region should receive thefirst priority, since its size of the family is the largest and its per capita income is the lgwest. I In order to reduce the size of family the attitudes of the people have to be changed from a preference for a large family to a small family; Inthe rural_socia1 structure there arehmany forces which enhanggwthe preference for the large family. Most farmers see children as labor and they feel more secure in their old age, if they have a large family. Religious faith is another important factor. For instance, many farm families prefer male children in order that some of these children will become monks, which is one way for parents to receive high merit. Reli- giousbelief is also an important obstacle to the practice of birth con- trol,because birth control runs counter to many Buddhist rules. The villages offer no social organization or recreation in which villagers participate, and farmers tend to accept procreation as an indoor game. In order to convince the farmers to reduce family size, the condi- tions mentioned must be altered. The extension of years in compulsory edueation is one way to convince the farmers that children are not solely agood source of labor. Security programs should be established so that the farmers will not look only toward more children as security in their 188 oldgage. Social organizations and recreational centers should‘beyset_up in the villages. Religious beliefs can be modified if proper information about birth control is extended_so that the people realize that there are many methods of birth control other than abortion and sterilization. Aboveall, a family planning program should be accepted by the government as its policy andthat sufficient funds and personnel should be provided over a sufficiently long period to guarantee the continuity and success of the program. If the government would change its attitude about propagation of birth control the family planning program would progress more rapidly. The present governmental stance which permits the propagation of birth control which is not too public dooms the program to failure. Logically this is quite impossible because the nature of propagation is public. The present attitude of the government enhances non-cooperation among all agencies concerned. The family action research in Photharam district,”under the Family Health Research Project, gives strong encouragement for similar action- research to be carried out in other parts of the country. Itiindicates that successful family planning in Thailand is possible in view of the change in the attitude of rural peoplein favor of family planning. Within the eight months of operation of thé action program, there was a substantial change in knowledge, attitude, and practices concerning the limitation of family_size.fl_The proportion of wemen having knowledge and practice of contrsception increased.~ Positive attitudeitoward family “"--- -‘-v-*-h—‘-—-‘n--_.-u. _ planning also increased substantially. Food Production As rice is the staple food of the Thais, and it is so important to the people to the extent that sufficient rice means sufficient food, 189 rice production is the most important item to be considered in food production. After considering the factors of rice production, it was found that Thailand will be able to feed her increasing population up to the year 1980, when the population will be about 48 to 54 millions, without much difficulty. Besides, there will likely be a surplus for export each year. Apart from rice there are many other food crops. Among them are corn which can be a good substitute for rice and its volume of produc- tion can be expanded in most parts of the country. Other sources of food - buffaloes, cattle, hogs, poultry, and fish, both marine and freshwater, are also being produced to the extent that there is some surplus left for export. These sources of food seem to doubly guarantee that within the short-run, there will be no hunger in Thailand. In order to be completely sure about the abundance in the long- run, the rate of population growth must be reduced and improvements in food production are necessary. As for the increasing of rice production the target should be to double the yield per acre. In order to accomp plish this target, the following agronomic factors are necessary: new techniques in production; improved system of irrigation; better seed; improvement of soil and the application of fertilizer; pest control, and mechanization. Besides these factors there are other factors which indirectly enhance the improvement of production. These include better education so that the materials distributed by the agricultural exten- sion officials can be better understood, more dependable markets, and more favorable prices. BIBLIOGRAPHY BIBLIOGRAPHY Asavasena, Winich. "Thailand", in Bernard Berelson, et al., eds. Family Flaming and Pomlation Programs. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press, 1966, p. 98. Ayal, Eliezer B. "Value Systems and Economic Development in Japan and in Thailand", in The Journal of Social Issues, Vol. 19, No. 1 (January 1963) pp. 35-51. 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"Does Thailand Need a Population Policy?" in National Seminar on the Population of Thailand, 1963. Bangkok: National Research Council, 1963. warren, Roland L. The Communitygin America. Chicago: Rand MeNally & Company, 1963. 196 Nichiencharoen, Adul. "Report on Movement of Population Within Thailand, " (Memiographed. ) Mirth, Louis. "Urbanism As a Way of Life," in The American Journal of Sociology. Vol. EIV (July 1938), pp. l-Zh. Wrong, Dennis H. @pulation and Society. New York: Random House, 1962. APPENDICES Appendix A Assumptions Applied in the Population Projections made by Gille and Chalothorn The assumptions applied by Gille and Chalothorn in their projec- tions of population growth are given below. Mertality Assumptions The projections of population growth have been prepared on two sets of mortality assumptions. Firstly, mortality is assumed to decline at a continued rapid rate experienced in the recent years, which is around 11 per 1,000 population, up to around 1970. After 1970, the decline in mortality is assumed to be more moderate. And from 1975 up to 1980, the decline in mortality is assumed to be slightly lower than the 1970 to 197# period. Secondly, the decline in mortality is assumed to slow down from 1960 up to 19800 FertilitypAssupption At present, there are no indications of decline in fertility. Hewever, preliminary analysis of the 1960 census results seems to show that the level of fertility is somewhat lower in urban areas than in the rest of the country. As of 1960 in Greater Bangkok, ever married woman at the end of the reproductive age had on the average 5 live births, but for the country as a whole the average number of births per woman was 6.3. With increased.urbanisation in the future, the level of ferti- lity in the country as a whole may decline slightly merely by the possible 197 198 adoption of the lower urban fertility pattern by a larger proportion of the total population. However, Gille and Chalothorn mention that it is difficult to evaluate how soon and to what extent this will happen within the next 15-20 years under consideration. Followings are the two sets of assumptions with regard to fertility which have been applied in the projections: (a) Continuation of the present high.level of fertility, (b) A decline in fertility beginning around 1965 implying a reduction in the birth rate by one-third by 1980. The following birth rates were applied: 1960-65: h5.0, 1965-70: 41.19, 1970-75: 36.6, and 1975-80: 32.1 per 1,000 population. For the projections of the urban population, Gille and Chalothorn assumed that the level of fertility is continue to be somewhat lower than for the rest of the country. ‘Nhile it is assumed in projection I (cons" stant fertility) that the birth rate for the country will remain at 45 per 1,000, it was assumed to be 40 for the urban population. In the case of projection II (declining fertility) it is assumed that the urban birth rate will continue to be 5 pointsbelow the national rates and reach 25 per 1,000 by 1980. The Urban Population It was assumed that the age distribution of males and females in urban areas throughout the whole country is the same. The rates at which in-migration to Greater Bangkok took place among males and females in the various age groups were applied to the total urban population (muni- cipalities of at least 20,000 population were considered as urban areas. Gille and Chalothorn mention that these rates only indicate the magni- tude of in-migration, not net migration. It has been assumed that 199 out-migration from urban areas would generally be of fairly small magnitude. Furthermore, account has been taken of the municipalities which were below 20,000 in 1960 but in period in which the projections are made, would be expected to reach the 20,000 and qualify as an urban area. It is estimated that by 1970, 17 municipalities which are now rural would be urban. By 1980 the total new urban areas would be about 30. These are the areas in which fertility would likely decline. Labor Force It has been assumed that the proportions of economically active males and females at various ages may change with economic and social development. Education will withdraw young people from the labor market, and industrial development will force many older people to retire. Mere women may be withdrawn from the labor market in particular in urban areas. Activity rates in the rural population will remain unchanged except in the age group 10-14 as the pattern of agriculture and economic customs in rural areas may not change drastically within the period under con- sideration. By 1980, the activity rates of the age-group 10-14 have been estimated to decline by one-third. In the urban population, it is assumed that the activity rates in the age-group 10-1n, 15-19, and 60 and over will be reduced by one-third by 1980. Furthermore, for females in the urban population a similar decline in the activity rate is assumed for the intermediate age-group as well. Birth Rates and Death Rates of the Four Projections Considering all items mentioned above, Gille and Chalothorn gave four population projections having different rates for birth and death 200 as follows: "constant fertility" or "fertility decline": "moderate mortality decline" or "rapid mortality decline", The birth rates and death rates of population growth from 1960 to 1980 in the four projection are shown in the following. Period Birth rate per Death rate per Rate of population 1,000 1,000 growth per 100 Projection I (constant fertility: moderate mortality decline) 1960-65 43.9 11.4 3.3 1965-70 43.0 10.0 3.4 1970-75 42.6 8.3 3.5 1975-80 42.2 7.1 3.6 Projection II (fertility decline, moderate mortality decline) 1960-65 43.9 11.4 3.3 1965-70 40.3 9.6 3.1 1970-75 35.7 7.9 2.8 1975-80 32.1 6.8 2.6 Projection III (constant fertility, rapid mortality decline) 1960-65 43.9 11.2 3.3 1965-70 42.8 8.0 3.5 1970-75 42.4 6.8 3.6 1975-80 42.3 5.8 3.? Projection IV (fertility decline, rapid mortality decline) 1960-65 “3.9 11.2 3 .3 1965-70 40.2 8.0 3.3 1970-75 35.5 6.7 2-9 1975-80 32.4 5.6 2.7 Appendix B Stycos' Critique of the Orthodox Birth Control Movement According to stycos, three major ideological biases have affected the planned parenthood movement in most countries. These are the medical, the middle-class, and the feminist biases. Because of the "medical bias" there has been: (1) emphasis on the individual or "case" rather than the group: (2) emphasis on a method designed to give maximum protection to the individual (diaphragm and jelly) rather than on those that would be most effective in reducing fer- tility rates: (3) undue discouragement of the simpler methods and of sterilization: and (4) emphasis on birth Spacing rather than on birth limitation. The middle-class bias, according to Stycos, is manifested in: (1) a strong "moralistic" tone: (2) a depreciation of lower class methods: and (3) emphasis on Spacing and planning rather than limitation. The feminist bias was explained by the fact that the pioneers have been ardent feminists. The consequences have been an emphasis on female methods, female patients, and justification in terms of the benefits to the female. 201 M'TITI'ITIQHILFIJ]MfilfllfilflflflfiiflflfliflfiflIll?!“