TEE IMPACT OF HIGHWAY IMPROVEMENT

0E RETAIL SALES AND STRUCTURE

IN SELECTED MAINE CENTERS
1960-1970

THESIS FOR THE DEGREE OFTPhaD.
MICHIGAN STATE UNIVERSITY

ELDRED D.ROLFE

I 9 7 3

 

THESI”

 

This is to certify that the

thesis entitled

THE IMPACT OF HIGHWAY IMPROVEMENT
0N RETAIL SALES AND STRUCTURE IN
SELECTED MAINE CENTERS: I960-I970

presented by

Eldred D. Rolfe

has been accepted towards fulfillment
of the requirements for

Ph.D. Geography

degree in

 

 

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Major professor
Date W/ I C? 7 3

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ABSTRACT
THE IMPACT OF HIGHWAY IMPROVEMENT

ON RETAIL SALES AND STRUCTURE IN
SELECTED MAINE CENTERS: 1960-1970

By
Eldred D. Rolfe

During the past twenty years, numerous studies have
been conducted on the effect of new high—speed highways on
retail sales and structure in urban places which have been
bypassed. A major problem with much of the previous
research, however, has been an overemphasis on the influence
of the bypass on a community's business enterprises and a
disregard for the connectivity change of the highway and the
centers it serves. It is essential to include both of
these elements to gain a better understanding of the overall
impact of highway improvement. Consequently, the purpose
of this dissertation is to investigate the variable impact
of I95 on retail sales and structure in 17 selected Maine
communities by examining the changes in local consumer
purchasing patterns, and transient and outlying trade area
customers.

The writer maintains that with increasing mobility of
the local population, due in part to highway improvement,
the characteristics of retail sales and structure in small
centers change. To characterize the process, a model is

presented showing how some communities have become points

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Eldred D. Rolfe
of convergence for trade, thus increasing the sale of all
goods at the expense of other places, whereas centers
which receive large numbers of commuters gain in the sale
of low order goods.

The change in transient and outlying trade area cus-
tomers has a lesser effect on a community's sales and
structure than the altered local consumer purchasing
patterns. The greatest impact occurs in the smallest
centers and on highway oriented businesses.

With the use of data collected from consumer and
merchant interviews, Maine sales tax publications, and
the U.S. Census of Business, an analysis is made of the
altered consumer purchasing patterns and the resulting
retail sales and structural change. The study shows that
people in hamlets close to a larger neighbor did not sig-
nificantly shift their primary purchasing because they were
already buying most of their goods in a larger place, where-
as consumers in medium-sized centers within a short distance
of a commercially more complex center substantially altered
their purchasing of most types of goods except gasoline,
furniture, and drugstore items. Residents in places more
than 30 minutes from a larger neighbor only moderately
modified their shopping patterns with the change being
primarily for department store items, apparel and restaurants.

The effect of I95 on the numbers of transient and
outlying trade area customers shopping‘in the study centers

was less significant than the changes in local consumer

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Eldred D. Rolfe
purchasing patterns. Generally those places which straddled
a former major highway and were bypassed lost transient while
communities which were not on a main route but now are close
to the Interstate gained.

The Interstate had a negative impact on retail sales
in most of the centers. The decline in sales in the medium-
sized communities came primarily from the altered local
consumer shOpping patterns, while in the smaller places the
decrease stemmed from the loss of transient trade. The loss
of sales in the larger towns, however, appeared to be only
temporary.

The greatest change in retail structure occurred in the
medium—sized centers near a regional node. The types of
merchandise most frequently mentioned which declined were
food, apparel, general merchandise, and gasoline. A further
alteration of the retail structure took place with the add-
ition of transient oriented establishments and shopping
plazas near the Interstate.

The regional nodes benefitted the most from highway
improvement. Even though only one such center was included
in the research for detailed analysis, there was evidence
that three others gained much of the business lost by the
smaller communities. It appears that with the increased
mobility of the pOpulation fewer and larger centers will

commercially dominate the landscape in Maine.

 

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THE IMPACT OF HIGHWAY IMPROVEMENT

ON RETAIL SALES AND STRUCTURE IN

SELECTED MAINE CENTERS: 1960-1970
By

Eldred DI Rolfe

A THESIS

Submitted to
Michigan State University
in partial fulfillment of the requirements
for the degree of

DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY
Department of Geography
1973

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

There are numerous individuals at Michigan State
University whom I would like to recognize for their part
in the completion of this dissertation. Special recognition
goes to Dr. Lawrence M. Sommers, my dissertation advisor,
whose willingness to help, encouragement, and constructive
criticisms were invaluable to my efforts. The assistance
of others, which include Dr. Gary Riggs, Dr. Clarence Vinge,
and Dr. Milton Steinmueller is also gratefully acknowledged.
Finally, I would like to thank Professors Albert Mitchell
and Myron Starbird of the University of Maine at Farmington
for their encouragement and their part in making possible

a sabbatical which was used to finish the dissertation.

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS... ....... . .................. . .......... ii
LIST OF TABLES.. ........................................ v
LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS.. ..... . ........................... viii
CHAPTER
I. METHODOLOGY ...................................... 1
Introduction ................................... 1
Statement of Problem.... ....................... A
Central Problems in Highway
Improvement Studies........ .................. 6
Delineation of the Area of Highway
Impact... .................................... 8
Contribution of Highway Impact
to Change....... ............................. 11
Amount and Direction of Change
in Retail Sales .............................. 13
Type of Highway Improvement .................... 1“
Size of Trade Centers... ....................... 15
Availability of Data.. ....................... ..15
smaryoo ....... 00.... OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO 18

II. THE PROCESS OF CONVERGENCE AND DISPERSION

AND THE RESULTING GEOGRAPHICAL CHANGE ............ 19
Changing Mobility of the Population ............ 22
Accessibility........ .......................... 2H
Time-Distance.. ....... ..... .................... 25
Friction in Movement.. . ...... . ..... . .......... 26
Dispersion of Population....... ................ 28
Increased Mobility and Changing

Urban Retail Structure.... ..... . ............. 30
III. THE IMPACT OF I95 ON CONSUMER PURCHASING
PATTERNS ..... ............ ..... ..... .............. 36
Changes in Local Consumer Purchasing
Patterns.......... .................... . ...... H2
Centers Grouped by Population Size
and Distance to Larger Neighbor .............. nu

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TABLE OF CONTENTS-—CONTINUED

Small Centers Close to Larger Neighbor........ A5
Medium-Sized Centers Close to

Larger Neighbor............... ..... . ........ 53
Centers More Than 30 Minutes from
Larger Neighbor................ ....... ..... 58

Changes in Local Consumer Purchasing

Patterns for Different Types of

Goods........................... ............ 66
Conclusions..................... .............. 76
The Impact of I95 on Transient and

Outlying Trade Area Consumer

Purchasing Patterns. ....... ................. 78
The Bypassed Centers ........................ 79
Centers with an Increased Accessibility

to a Major Route...... ..................... 86
Centers with Unaltered Accessibility

to a Major Route..... ..... ....... ........... 89
Conclusions... ............... ..... ............ 89

IV. THE IMPACT OF I95 ON TOTAL RETAIL SALES

AND STRUCTURE....................... ........... . 92

A Method of Determining Sale Change
Attributed to Highway Improvement.. ......... 9“
Sales Changes Attributed to 195...... ......... 97
The Impact of I95 on Retail Structure.. ....... 121
The Regional Nodes.................... ..... ...l23
Conclusions............. ................. .....l26
V. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS... ....... . ....... .......l28
BIBLIOGRAPHY... ............................. . ..... . ...... 136
APPENDIX..... ..... . ...................................... 1H2

A. Consumer Purchasing Patterns in Maine
Study Centers ...... . ....................... ...142

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LIST OF TABLES

Maine Study Centers ............................. 37
Yarmouth Consumer Purchasing........ ............ 39
Total Local Consumer Purchasing Change .......... H3

Consumer Purchasing Pattern Changes:
Centers Less Than 3000 Population, Less
Than 30 Minutes From Larger Neighbor... ......... H6

Consumer Purchasing Pattern Changes:
Centers Greater Than 3000 Population, Less
Than 30 Minutes From Larger Neighbor...... ...... 54

Consumer Purchasing Pattern Changes:

Centers More Than 30 Minutes From Nearest

Larger Neighbor...................... ........... 60
Total Consumer Purchasing Change for

Categories of Goods................ ............. 68

Consumer Purchasing Pattern Change for
Categories of Goods: Centers Less Than
3000 Population, Less Than 30 Minutes
From Larger Neighbor.................... ....... .70
Consumer Purchasing Pattern Changes for

Categories of Goods: Centers Greater Than

3000 Population, Less Than 30 Minutes

From Larger Neighbor............................72

Consumer Purchasing Pattern Change for
Categories of Goods: Centers More Than 30
Minutes From Larger Neighbor....................75
Changes in Volume of Traffic, and Transient
and Outlying Trade Area Consumer Business

in Bypassed Communities.........................80
Changes in Volume of Traffic, and Transient
and Outlying Trade Area Consumer Business
in Centers with Increased Accessibility to
a Major Route..............................

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LIST OF TABLES--CONTINUED

Changes in Volume of Traffic, and Transient
and Outlying Trade Area Consumer Business
in Centers with Unaltered Accessibility to

a Major Route....................... ..... . .. 90
Study and Comparative Control Centers .......... 93
Sales Change Attributed to Highway
Improvement....................... ............. 98
Taxable Sales Change in Orono and Gorham,

and Their Economic Regions.....................100
Taxable Sales Change in Bath and Gardiner,

and Their Economic Regions................ ..... 101
Taxable Sales Change in East Millinocket

and Madison, and Their Economic Regions........102
Taxable Sales Change in Houlton and

Caribou, and Their Economic Regions ............ 103
Taxable Sales Change in Island Falls and

Milo, and Their Economic Regions....... ........ 10A
Taxable Sales Change in Patten and Milo,

and Their Economic Regions.....................105
Taxable Sales Change in Sherman Mills and
Bridgewater, and Their Economic Regions ........ 106
Taxable Sales Change in Millinocket and

Rumford, and Their Economic Regions ............ 107
Taxable Sales Change in Mattawamkeag and
Winterport, and Their Economic Regions.........108
Taxable Sales Change in Lincoln and Dover
Foxcroft, and Their Economic Regions...........109
Taxable Sales Change in Howland and Winter-

port, and Their Economic Regions ............. ..110
Taxable Sales Change in Old Town and

Skowhegan, and Their Economic Regions .......... 111
Taxable Sales Change in Newport and

Wiscasset, and Their Economic Regions..........ll2

in Pittsfield and
Their Economic Regions....ll3

Taxable Sales Change
Livermore Falls, and

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LIST OF TABLES--CONTINUED

Taxable Sales Change in Clinton and

Winterport, and Their Economic Regions ..... ....114
Taxable Sales Change in Yarmouth and

Lisbon Falls, and Their Economic Regions.. ..... 115
Taxable Sales Change in Freeport and

Lisbon Falls, and Their Economic Regions ....... 116
Sales Change Attributed to Local Consumers,
Transients, and Outlying Trade Area Customers..ll7
Relative Sales Change in Study Centers After

the Initial Impact of Highway Improvement......120
Retail Sales in Bangor ..................... ....125
Sherman Mills Consumer Purchasing.. ..... . ..... .143
Mattawamkeag Consumer Purchasing.. ..... . ..... ..1Ah
Howland Consumer Purchasing........ ........ . .1A5
Clinton Consumer Purchasing... ............ .....1A6
Bath Consumer Purchasing.... ....... . ...... .....lA7
Freeport Consumer Purchasing...... ......... ....1H8
Pittsfield Consumer Purchasing.................lA9
Old Town Consumer Purchasing.... ........ . ...... 150
Orono Consumer Purchasing. ......... ............151
Lincoln Consumer Purchasing....................152
Island Falls Consumer Purchasing........ ..... . 153
Patten Consumer Purchasing ...... ... ...... ......15A
Newport Consumer Purchasing... ...... . .......... 155
East Millinocket Consumer Purchasing...........156
Millinocket Consumer Purchasing ........ . ....... 157
Houlton Consumer Purchasing......... .......... .158

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LIST OF FIGURES

Maine Study Centers....... ........... .......... 7
A Process of Retail Structural Change ...... ....20
Changing Nature of Trade Area A...... ........ ..33
Northern Maine Study Centers.. ....... ..........A8
Central Maine Study Centers ........... .... ..... 50
Southern Maine Study Centers... .......... . ..... 51

Impact of I95 on Consumer Purchasing
Patterns: Small Centers Close to a
Larger Neighbor................ ................ 52

Impact of I95 on Consumer Purchasing

Patterns: Medium-Sized Centers Close to

a Larger Neighbor........... ................... 59
Impact of I95 on Consumer Purchasing

Patterns: Centers More Than 30 Minutes

From a Larger Neighbor..... ....... .... ......... 65

Maine Economic Regions.......... ...... .. ....... 95

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1., f. E I

CHAPTER I

METHODOLOGY

Introduction

 

The automobile as a means of transportation and the
improved quality and extended mileage of highways have
made a significant change in the life of the American
people.1 Man's mobility and independence have increased
to the extent that he has altered the characteristics of
his landscape. The rise of man's choices of places to
work, live, and purchase goods and services has enhanced
the growth of some market centers, while inducing decline
in others. In association with the growth or decline
there is also a modification in the internal organization
of the urban places.

The spatial changes brought about by the development
of private automobile transportation continue to occur.
The shift in emphasis by the Federal Government from an
improved two-lane network of roads linking urban centers
with their tributary areas to high speed, four-lane high-

ways connecting major cities will continue to bring about

 

lsee John R. Rae, The Road and the Car in American
Life (Cambridge: MIT Press, 19717} Ernest W. Williams,
ed., The Future of American Transportation (Colorado '
University, The American Assembly, 1971).

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changes in the interrelations of man's activities. Even
though this new system is being developed primarily to link
large urban centers, many rural areas are affected by their

2 stated that the magnitude

access to the highway. Garrison
of the effect on man's reorganization of space may be as
significant as other technological improvements in automo—
tive transportation. The nature of the trade relationships
of one community to another and of rural areas to urban
places has been greatly altered.

During the past twenty years, and particularly in the
period between 1950 and 1965, numerous studies have been
conducted on the effects of new high—speed highways on
retail sales and structure (retail sales mix) in urban
places.3 Horwoodl'I points out, however, that many of the
research efforts were designed to accomplish a public
relations objective rather than to serve as models for

scholarly purposes, and that several inquiries commenced

with the bias that bypasses are good for business, or at

 

2William Garrison, "Connectivity of the Interstate
Highway System," Papers and Proceedings, The Regional Science
Association, 9 (1960), pp. 122—125.

3See Highway Research Board Library, Economic Impact of
Highway Improvement (March, 1966), (mimeographed); Warren
Pillsbury, The Economic and Social Effect of Highway Improve-
ment: An Annotated Bibliography (Charlottesville, Virginia:
Council of Highway Investigation and Research, 1961); Alan
Vorhes and Associates, Inc., "Computation of Highway Impacts,"
Librarians Exchange Bibliography, 67 (Monticello, Illinois:
February, 1969).

 

 

 

 

 

”Edgar M. Horwood, et. al., "Community Consequence of
Highway Improvement, " National Cooperative Highway Research
Program, Report No.18 (Washington, D. C. Highway Research
Board, 1965).

 

 

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least will not adversely affect retail establishments. He
also found that many of these works did not use comparative
control centers, make adjustments for inflation in the
economy, nor consider the position of the bypassed town in
the hierarchy of the linear settlement pattern on the
alignment of the transport network. Horwood further adds
that if more rigor had been given to a majority of the
investigations in their design, the results may not have
been nearly as favorable as indicated in the general
literature.

A large share of these impact studies have been made
for small to medium sized places throughout the U.S. Also,
a fewgeneralizations have been made on the variation of
the effect of highway improvement and suggestions have been
emphasized for further study. Berry and Garrison5 indicated
that towns within a short radius (15 to 25 miles) of larger
centers suffer substantially. Horwood6 noted in his anal-
ysis of A5 research projects that places under 5,000 popu—
lation were more adversely affected than larger ones. A

Colorado Highway Department Report7 concluded that the

 

5Brian Berry and William Garrison, "Cities and Free-
ways," Landscape, 10 (1958-1959), pp. 20-2“.

 

6Horwood, gp,cit., p. 9

7Colorado Highway Department, A Before and After
Study of Effects of a Limited Access Highway Upon Business
Activity of By-Passed Communities and Upon Land Value and
Land Use (Denver: Colorado Department of Highway, 1958).

 

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distance of a center from the new highway is a contributing
factor, and a near-universal conclusion is that highway-
oriented businesses are hurt more than non-highway oriented
establishments. The most comprehensive investigations on the
consequence of highway improvement have been made by Garrison

and others.8

Statement of Problem

 

A major shortcoming of many of the previous studies has
been an overemphasis on the influence of the bypass on a
community's businesses and a disregard for the connectivity
change of the highway and the communities it serves. Hor-
wood9 suggested further research should not only analyze the
impact of the bypass on a center's retail sales and structure,
but also the effect of the altered relationship between
communities along the new transportation system. It is
essential to include both of these elements to gain a better
understanding of the overall impact of highway improvement.
Consequently, the purpose of this dissertation is to inves-
tigate the variable impact of 195 on the retail sales and
structure in selected Maine communities by examining the
changes in local consumer purchasing patterns, and transient

and outlying trade area customers.

 

8William Garrison and Marion Marts, Geographic Impact
of Highway Improvement, (Seattle: Department of Geography,
University of Washington, 1958); William Garrison e§,al.,
Studies of Highway Develppment and Geographic Change (Seattle:
University of Washington Press, 1959).

 

 

 

9Horwood, loc.cit., p. 15.

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The hypotheses tested are:

1. Highway improvement has an adverse effect on the
growth of retail sales in small to medium-sized
Maine communities.

2. Consumers in small centers close to a bigger
neighbor will not significantly shift their
primary purchasing to a larger place.

3. Consumers in medium-sized centers close to a
bigger neighbor will substantially shift their
primary purchasing to a larger place.

A. Consumers in centers more than 30 minutes from
a bigger neighbor will moderately shift their
primary purchasing to a larger place.

5. Consumers will shift their primary purchasing for
higher order more than for lower order goods.

6. Centers which straddled the former main highway
and are bypassed will lose sales from transients
and in larger places, also outlying trade area
customers, while similar communities which were
not on a main route, but now are close to the
Interstate will_gain.

7. Small centers will be affected more from changes
in transient trade due to highway improvement

than will larger places.

The study universe includes seventeen selected centers

distributed along Interstate 95 and an improved section of

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U.S. Route One in Maine (Figure l). The communities were
selected on the basis of population size (9A5—10, 700),
type of highway (limited access), and availability of
retail sales data. The reasons for using these charac-
teristics will become evident in the ensuing discussion.

The remaining section of this chapter is devoted to
a discussion of problems in highway improvement research
and is followed in Chapter II by an analysis of the changing
mobility of the population and the resulting geographical
changes. These two chapters establish the framework for
the analysis of (l) the effect of the Interstate on consumer
purchasing patterns, and (2) the impact on the retail sales
and structure in communities due to the introduction of
I95. These two topics are discussed in Chapters III and IV,

respectively.

Central Problems in Highway Improvement Studies

A study of the impact of highway improvement on retail
sales and structure involves many problems, three of which
are pertinent to this research: (1) delineation of the area
of highway influence; (2) determination of the contribution
of the highway to change; and (3) measurement of the amount
and direction of the effects of the highway over time.10

If these difficulties are overcome a better measure of

 

10Massachusetts Department of Public Works, Social and
Economic Impact of Highways, a mimeographed publication pre-
pared by the Office of the Staff Economist (Boston, Mass-
achusetts: April, 1961), pp. 4-20.

 

 

 

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HOULTON

 

PAT TEN
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FALLS

 

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° CLINTON

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“wry/fl MAINE STUDY CENTERS

IO 20 30 40
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—TUINHKE-INTERSTATE SS
---INTERSTATE SS UNDER CONSTANT“

 

Figure 1

 

 

-. .U "Iv W A r: alu‘ Y” a . 0s; 7: 3» Iai‘ AU rC L . C: .1_\|
a a n a. .l W n 3 VJ n.“ . u .n C ..rl e H
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8

change due to highway improvement will result.

Delineation of the Area of Highway Impact

 

A major problem of delimiting the area of the impact
of highway improvement is determining the geographical
limits. There have been numerous bases on which delineations
have been established, some of which have been employed in
this research. Although most of these techniques have been
used for land-use studies, they are also applicable to
changes in retail sales and structure.

Knowledge of the land use characteristics of the area
has often been used in delineating the zone of influence.11
With detailed knowledge of the landscape that is trans-
versed by a highway, a researcher can make assumptions
concerning the degree of impact likely to occur. The region
beyond the influence of the highway is excluded, thereby
establishing the limits of the study area.

One of the most common methods of delimitation is to
geometrically divide the land near the highway using the

road right—of-way as a reference point.12 The highway as a

 

llSee among others William G. Adkins and Alton W.
Tieken, "Economic Impact of Expressways in San Antonio,"
Texas Transportation Institute Bulletin No. 11 (College
Station, Texas: August, 1958); Pennsylvania State University,
Economic and Social Impact of Highways, A Progress Report
219, College Agriculture, Agricultural Experiment Station
(June, 1960); William Garrison and Mario Marts, 193,913,

 

l2See among others William Garrison and Marion Marts,
ibid.; University of Kentucky, The Effect of the Louisville
Waterson Expressway on Land Use and Land Values (Lexington,
Kegtucky: Bureau of Business Research, College of Commerce,
19 0).

 

.-

outer
In 0"

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-.AU

 

 

 
   

4...-
b a ‘ r 3» 0v 8 .1 AV U1 .htu rc 1 «1: DJ HIV v.& Q.» tr .. AC. A: 7! CL 3 H!»
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e x be h. ...J 8 C IV a. 0-. .vaE no To 4C «C “Q h; .l O n... ....L
C a n 3 l .H z 1 P. P t O 3 .31 n l A». S 0 hi 1 3 r... 3
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. c .. v 9 ... S a Lu .T. R. .C ..u .. 1 u» 1. . .Q 5 ..fi V
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.. . Av nlu .3 A: IA n1. n1 5 WI ..c .1 .l I: a . v.4 bl A: ... . . .qu
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9
linear element is used as a case from which impact is
measured at right angles. The assumption is that the
greatest effect will occur adjacent to the highway and
will decline with an increase in distance from that line.
The outer limits of the area of influence lateral to the
highway may vary in width from two blocks to 2% miles.

In one study the zone of impact was delineated at
uniform distances from an interchange,13 actual travel
distance being used rather than a straight airline measure.
For example, all land within 250 feet of existing streets
that are reached by driving one and one-half miles from
the nearest interchange is included within the region to
be analyzed.

The simplest delineation used has been political
jurisdiction, or subdivisions in the case of large units};4
This method has been used because convenient sources of
data are provided. The weakness in this approach, however,
is that the impact is rarely concordant with individual

units of governmental control.

 

13Walter C. McKain, Jr. and James R. Weir, The
Economic and Social Effects of the Connecticut Turnpike on
Eastern Connecticut--A Research Prospectus (Storrs, Connec-
ticut: Storrs Agricultural Experiment Station, College of
Agriculture, University of Connecticut, 195$.

 

 

l”See among others A.J. Bone, Economic Impact Study
of Massachusetts Route 128 (Cambridge, Massachusetts:
Transportation Engineering Division, Department of Civil
and Sanitary Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of
Technology, December 31, 1958); Hulse Wagner, The Economic
Effects of Bypass Highways on Selected Kansas Communities
(Lawrence, Kansas: Center for Research in Business,
University of Kansas, no date).

 

 

 

 

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10.

Because the purpose of this study is to determine the
effect of highway improvement on retail sales and structure
rather than specifically on land use, land values or popula-
tion growth, civic units are used to delimit the area of
impact. Also, the population size of the cities in the
research is small enough for the influence to be felt
throughout the entire community. However, using political
jurisdiction does lead to other problems.

One is the increasing size of cities through annexation.
When the enlarged area contains commercial establishments,
one may falsely conclude that the resulting increase in the
volume of sales is due to the highway improvement when in
reality it may be caused by expansion. Fortunately, most
cities whose retail sales are small enough to be signifi—
cantly affected by annexation contain the majority of the
commercial establishments within the previous city limits,
and the composition of the attached area is residential.
Large cities would show little change in total retail sales
by adding a few establishments in the extended territory.

Another problem centers around retail establishments
which are located just outside the city limits, including
highway string development along access routes and the
construction of shopping centers. Essentially they are
part of the retail structure of the place but do not appear
in its statistics. If stores are opened in this fringe
area at the same time highway improvement is completed, a

loss in retail sales in the city proper may be attributed

 

 

  

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ff)
VU

 

11

to the wrong cause.

Contribution of Highway Impact to Change

A second major problem is determining the change in
retail sales which can be attributed to highway improvements
alone. A complete separation of highway and non-highway
variables is difficult if not impossible to attain, but
there have been attempts to isolate the influence a highway
exerts on a particular area as indicated by the methods
reviewed below.

The before and after method, a simple means of isola-
ting the effect of highway improvement in an urban center,
compares changes occurring in the center during the pre-
and post-periods.15 The assumption is that any changes
occurring after highway improvement can be attributed to
the new facility. This is an over simplification because
changes in other non-highway variables affect indicators
which are used to show the impact of the highway such as

inflation and deflation of the local economy, natural

 

15See among others George Bardwell and Paul R. Merry,

"Measuring the Economic Impact of a Limited Access Highway on
Land Use and Land Values," Highway Research Board Bulletini
268 (1960); Fred 0. Gibbens, "Temulca Study: What Happened to
the Small Highway Town When By-Passed," California Highways
and Public Works, 30 (July-August, 1951); R.S. Wallace and
J.H. Lemby, Analysis of HighwayHChange on Two Small Georgia
Communities (Milledgeville, Georgia: Georgia State College,
1968); L.D. Wullweber, Long Term Economic Affect of Highway
S.D. 50 on Tyndall, South Dakota (South Dakota Department of
Highways, 1967); P.W. Zickefoose, "Economic Survey of Baton,
New Mexico, 1958-1966: The After Portion of a Highway Relo—
cation Study," Engineering Experiment Station Bulletin No. 37
(University Park, New Mexico: University of New Mexico, 1958).

 

 

 

 

 

 

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12
growth resulting from a dynamic local economic base, or
the gain or loss of places of large employment.

A second method which has been used in numerous
studies is comparative control.16 It has been utilized
because it eliminates many of the faults inherent in the
before-and-after approach. Ideally this procedure involves
a simultaneous comparison of a study trade center with a
control center alike in nearly every aspect excluding the
highway. The assumption is that except for the highway,
both communities have similar characteristics and the
influence of the new facility is the cause of the change.
Since no two places are exactly alike in structure and very
few are similar, it is a major problem for the researcher
to find two centers which have the same basic likenesses.

One of the most direct methods of determining the
influence of the highway is the use of the interview,17

a technique which has been especially popular in

 

l6See among others Iowa State Highway Commission, Iowa,
Economic Impact of Highway Improvement (Highway Planning
Section, Safety and Traffic Department, May, 1959); John F.
Kelley, "Templeton By-Pass: Removal of Through Traffic Helps
Farm Community," California Highways and Public Works (July-
August, 1955); J.C. Young, "Economic Effects of Expressways
on Business and Land Values," Traffic Quarterly, 5, No. u
(October, 1951).

17See among others University of Oregon, Economics
Effects of Through Highways By-Passing Certain Oregon Com-
munities (Prepared for Legislative Highway Interim Com-
mittee by Bureau of Business Research, July, 1956); Uni-
versity of Kentucky, Some Economic Effects of the Lexington
Northern Belt—Line (Lexington, Kentucky: Bureau of Business
Research, College of Commerce, 1960).

 

 

 

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r n v n LU 4-. r c. ..r.

 

l3
investigations of the effect of by—passes on business sales.
In these studies businessmen were interviewed in order to
delimit the influence on retail sales that can be attributed
to the highway alone. Also, home surveys were used to
ascertain changed travel patterns of the consumer.

Each of the above-mentioned ways of determining the
impact which can be attributed to the highway has weaknesses
and strengths. Thus, several of these methods are applied
in this research to partially overcome deficiencies in the

techniques and to obtain more valid conclusions.

Amount and Direction of Change in Retail Sales

 

Accurately determining the amount and direction of
change in volume of retail sales due to highway improvement
not only involves solving the problems previously mentioned,
but also finding a good method of measurement. Even if it
is assumed that the highway effect is felt throughout the
political area of the study center, and the amount of
retail sales attributed to highway develOpment is known,
the unit of measurement remains to be resolved. To make a
comparative analysis of various sized centers, relative
rather than absolute change must be adopted. For example,
if two cities, one with a total retail sales volume of
fifty million dollars, and the other with ten million
dollars, each have an increase of one million dollars in
sales, the growth in absolute terms would be the same.

The relative change, however, would be considerably different.

 

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1“

The larger city's retail sales increase would be two per
cent, the smaller city's ten per cent. Hence in reality
the smaller center is affected more than is the larger one.
It becomes apparent that absolute values in measuring
growth or decline in retail sales in various sized urban
places should not be employed in this study. Thus, per-
centage change is utilized because of its adaptability to
the problem.

Also, some consideration must be given to inflation
during the period before and after highway completion.
Retail sales figures used in this research are adjusted by

18

the Consumer Price Index to account for inflation, i.e.,
the percentage increase in the Consumer Price Index is
subtracted from the percentage change in retail sales.

Other difficulties involve: (1) selection of the type
of highway improvement, (2) selection of the sizes of

trade center, and (3) the acquisition of data which can be

used for measurement of change.

Type of Highway Improvement

 

Some variation in the impact of highway improvement
on urban places may be attributed to differences in the
type of highway. For example, the effect of the construction
of a four-lane, limited access expressway may differ from

either the improvement of secondary roads or the development

 

18Mel A. Colchamiro, "Measuring Inflation," Road Maps
of Industry, 1673 (New York: The Conference Board, September

1, 19717:

 

 

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15
of a four-lane, free access facility. Roadside development
of businesses and housing may take place along the last two
categories of transportation systems, while, with the excep-
tion of development at interchanges, it generally does not
along the limited access network. Because different centers
are to be compared in this study, the type of highway im—
provement will be the limited access. This alleviates the
problem of determining the degree of impact attributable to
the different kinds of highway despite the fact that both

two-lane and four-lane limited access varieties are used.

Size of Trade Centers

 

Determining a meaningful size range of trade centers
is complex. There must be enough variation to ascertain if
size of the place is a significant factor in the effect of
highway improvement. A community cannot be so large,
however, that impact is not felt within its entire political
boundaries, nor can it be so small that retail sales data
cannot be obtained. For small centers (less than five
retail establishments) retail sales information is not
available. Thus, to have differences in size of places and
still maintain workable conditions, the size of the small
trade centers studied varies from hamlets with five or more
retail outlets, regardless of population size, to cities of

10,000 population.

Availability of Data

 

Even though the problems involved in working with

Cy

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16
centers of the previously indicated size are minimized,
statistical data are noticeably absent for volumes of retail
sales in different categories of businesses in these places.
Detailed information on retail sales and other character-
istics is primarily for centers over 20,000 population.
There are, however, two major sources which can be used:

(1) sales tax returns19 and (2) the Census of Business.20

 

Sales tax data have often been utilized to evaluate
the effect of highway improvement on the volume of retail

21 and were employed in this study despite the fol—

sales
lowing limitations: (1) the publication of sales tax
figures is governmentally restricted by minimal population
requirements eliminating significant information on several
centers used in this research; (2) the lack of staff and
facilities in the Maine Bureau of Taxation does not permit

a complete compilation of data for small communities;
consequently, only selected years of retail sales can be
obtained; (3) by law, the individual is not permitted access

to sales tax files; (U) sales tax information on categories

of goods is available for only the three largest urban

 

19State of Maine, Sales and Use Tax, and Taxable Sales
(Augusta, Maine: Monthly, 1961-1970) (mimeographed).

 

20U.S. Department of Commerce, Census of Business, I
and II, Part I (Washington, D.C.: 195A, 1953, 1963, 1967).

21See among others J.C. Young, lgg.gi§.; Hugh Favelle
and Carl Goldschmidt, Effects on Businesses of By:Pass High:
ways (East Lansing: Michigan State University, 1960); and
numerous by-pass studies published in the Highway Research
Board Bulletin.

 

 

 

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l7
centers in the State of Maine; and (5) there is no Maine
sales tax on food, drugs, and a few other items, thus
excluding them from the total retail sales of a center.

Another source of data used is the Census of Business

 

because it provides information on categories of goods. A
major problem in utilizing this source is that it is not an
annual publication. The pertinent volumes were published
for the years 195U, 1958, 1963, and 1967. Since the study
centers received highway improvement in one of the years
between 1960 and 1968, information cannot be obtained for
both an immediate one year pre- and post-development period.
This problem may best be explained by using an example. If
sales figures for a community are available for the year
1963 and 1967, and a new highway is completed in 1964, one
has to estimate the impact by assuming it is continuous
through 1967. When the new facility was completed in 1965
or 1966 the estimate is subject to greater error because one
does not know the amount of increase or decrease in sales
between 1963 and 1964, 1965 or 1966.

A second shortcoming is that Census of Business data

 

are confined to those places with more than 2,500 population.
This excludes retail sales information on categories of goods
in many of the study centers.

A less severe problem is encountered in estimating the
change in the retail sales in certain groups of businesses
between 1958 and 1963 or 1963 and 1967. Many communities

contain only one or two stores of a given group within a

J

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18
county. A disclosure law prohibits the release of the sales
for this category of enterprises within the trade center
because it would reveal the amount of sales of that business.
Therefore, the value has to be estimated or excluded.

It is virtually impossible to account for all problems
inherent in studying the impact of highway development, but
an attempt has been made to adjust for some of the major
shortcomings. Some conditions must be assumed, but others
have been created to make the growth or decline in retail

sales a more accurate measure of change due to the highway.

Summary
The objective of this chapter has been threefold:

(1) to define the purpose of the dissertation which is to
investigate the variable impact of I95 on the retail sales
and structure in selected Maine communities by examining
the changes in local consumer purchasing patterns, and
transient and outlying trade area customers; (2) to state
the hypotheses to be tested; and (3) to discuss and find
solutions to some central problems in highway improvement
research which includes delineating the area of highway
impact, determining the contribution of highway develop-
ment to change, measuring the amount and direction of the
increase or decrease in retail sales, and selecting a
suitable study universe. A discussion of the process of
convergence and dispersion of pOpulation and the resulting

geographical change follows in Chapter II.

 

 

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CHAPTER II
THE PROCESS OF CONVERGENCE AND DISPERSION
AND THE RESULTING GEOGRAPHICAL CHANGE

Before pursuing the analysis of the impact of the
Interstate on consumer purchasing patterns and on the retail
sales and structure in Maine centers, a simple model (Figure
2) is discussed and a number of concepts reviewed. The
model depicts highway improvement and the process of retail
structural change in urban places. The concepts analyzed
include the causes of increased mobility due to highway
development, and the effect of mobility on urban places as
points of convergence and areas of dispersion.

The model is based upon the principal assumption that
man is rational, a previous supposition that has been well
developed in the literature.1 Therefore, only implications
relevant to this study need be presented. These include the

following:

 

lSee Richard M. Cyert and James G. March, A Behavioral
Theory of the Firm (Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey: Prentice
Hall, Inc., 1963).

 

 

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LEI.

2O

///////”’I’,,,~J>-HIGHWAY IMPROVEMENT <7—~—~—~I\\N\\\\\\\\\\‘

A Decrease of

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Increased Decreased
friction in accessibility time-distance
movement to larger centers to larger centers
Increased
/ mobility
Diffusion of Convergence of
population population
vb v
Increase Increased range
population in of goods in larger
smaller centers centers
w
Increase in sales Change in Increase in sales
of low order goodss———a retail <7 of all goods in

 

 

in smaller centers structure larger centers
of all
centers

   
  

 

Need 6f the
population for
increased interaction
between points in space

1

Governmental
decision to
meet the need of
the population

A PROCESS OF RETAIL STRUCTURAL CHANGE

FIGURE 2.

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21
1. Man has perfect knowledge about alternatives. Thus,
he knows the characteristics of the internal retail
structure of urban places in regard to types of
goods to satisfy his needs, and the cost of obtain-
ing these goods.
2. Man is solely interested in maximizing the
economic benefits of shopping at a given place.

3. Another assumption basic to the model is the
concept of equal mobility of the population.
Each family within a region has the same
ability to maximize the economic benefits of
shopping at a given place.

Highway improvement transforms the following restraints
on population movement into conditions enhancing mobility:
(1) increase in accessibility, (2) decrease in time—dis-
tance, and (3) decrease of friction in movement. With
greater mobility people can both converge on certain trade
centers and disperse to residential areas with greater ease.

Although convergence and dispersion are two opposing
processes, they both lead to a modification in the retail
structure of communities. Where urban centers become
strengthened central points, the range of goods sold in
these places (generally large cities) is extended, resulting
in an expansion in retail sales at the expense of the
smaller communities. The dispersion of population leads to
growth in smaller centers, creating a demand for certain

goods (generally lower order) and resulting in both an

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22
increase in the sale of goods, and a change in retail
structure. As the transformation in retail structure
evolves, a need arises for more interaction between points
in space, and in turn leads to the governmental decision
to meet this need which initiates additional highway improve—

ment and a continued alteration of retail structure.

Changing Mobility of the Population
As indicated in the model, increased mobility has

been significant in the convergence and dispersion of the
population.2 Hence, this concept is important in partially
explaining the evolved distribution and structure of today's
urban places. The effect of the increasing mobility on the
distribution of the population and the number of central
points for trade has been aptly shown in a study of settle-
ments in South Dakota.3 There, small communities throughout

the state underwent an attenuation adjustment as improved

 

2For examples of early studies see: C.J. Galpin,
"Social Anatomy of an Agricultural Community," University of
Wisconsin Agricultural Experiment Station Bulletin, 3H
(I915); J.H. Kolb and R.A. Polson, "Trends in Town—Country
Relations," University of Wisconsin Experiment Station
Research Bulletin, 117 (1933); P.D. Converse, "The Automo—
bile and the Village Merchant," Universitygof Illinois
Bureau of Business Research Bulletin, 19 (1928); H.C. Hoff—
sommer, flRElation of Cities and Larger Villages to Changes
in Rural Trade and Social Areas in Wayne County, New York,"
Cornell University Agricultural Experiment Station Bulletin,
582 (193A); C.R. Hoffer, "A Study of Town-Country Relation—
ships," Michigan State College Agricultural Experiment
Station Special Bulletin, 181_(1928).

 

 

 

'3Douglas Chittick, "Growth and Decline of South Dakota
Trade Centers, 1901-1951," South Dakota State College
Agricultural Experiment Station Bulletin, Ah8 (1955),

Pp- 1'55-

 

J

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a

1

T3335

 

 

 

{x C . I] . I! |. C .
aw «NJ; ”My Cu A1“. L v Y . . . e W L .V L M 1W)“. w U ml).
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Wu. w w s .. A u Au ....nsw Hm Us.“ 14“ ..Hv. .nuu

 

 

23
roads and the multifarious use of the automobile and motor
truck facilitated convergence of rural people to the larger
trade centers. Consequently the total number of market
places decreased from 759 in 1911 to 5U5 in 1951. Settle-
ments under 2500 population declined significantly while
those over 2500 expanded in numbers. People could now
travel farther for goods and were able to take advantage
of the competitive prices and greater variety of goods in

5

the larger towns and cities. Fox“ and Hawley indicate
that increased mobility through advancements in transporta-
tion has lead to a recentralization of stores to fewer,
larger and more distantly spaced centers.

The process of change in continuing throughout the
United States as the movement of the pOpulation is enhanced
by greater use of the new expressway system. Morrill6 notes
that with the introduction of interstate highways the
larger cities intensify their domination over smaller places
and thus magnify economic differences between the larger

and smaller centers.

The causes of mobility are numerous, but there is a

 

“Karl A. Fox, "The Study of Interactions Between Agri-
culture and the Nonfarm Economy: Local, Regional and
National," Journal of Farm Economics, AM (February, 1962),
p. 16.

5Amos H. Hawley, Human Ecology: A Theory_of Community
Structure (New York: The Ronald Press, 1950), p. A15.

6Richard L. Morrill, "Highways and Services: The Case
of Physician Care," Studies of Highway Development and
Gepgraphic Change, by William Garrison, et,al,, pp,cit.,
p. 232

 

 

 

 

 

,1

 

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need to stress only the few concepts which have a direct

relation to highway improvement and to this study.

Accessibility

 

Accessibility is defined as the ease of access. It
is an important factor in stimulating increases in the
movement of the population and affects retail sales and
structure within urban centers. Van Cleef7 claims that
transportation facilities generally determine the degree
of accessibility of a given center. Since trade means an
exchange of commodities, it is logical to conclude that
easy access to a trade center is paramount to its vigor-
ous growth, and is important in determining the signifi-
cance of an urban place as a point of convergence. The
literature8 in economic geography, economics, transport-
ation, as well as many other disciplines contain many
examples of the significance of accessibility to city and
regional growth.. As the relative importance and efficiency
of the mode of transportation changes so do certain centers

as central places.

 

7E. VanCleef, Trade Centers and Trade Routes (New York:
D. Appleton Century Company, 1937), p. 12.

 

8William E. Grossman, Fundamentals of Transportation
(New York: Simon Broadman Publishing Corporation, 1959);
Edgar M. Hoover, The Location of Economic Activity (New
York: McGraw-Hill Book Company, Inc., l9h8); and Philip
Kerr, The Regional Impact of Highways (Cambridge: Mass-
achusetts Institute of Technology Press, 1959).

 

 

 

e

-r
3..

95813229.

21155:

 

 

 

.r .‘ C. x. ..C ..u 7. . .
:3 T ml. ... o h. w.“ .1 9 C I T. E .. .f : 1
u_“ 3; C w" AU “a... 11. S u.“ w,“ ad h. ml. mi
n. n a ,1 “a S r... S
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w.“ fie a.» ..La .1. 2 a» .3. AJ
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25

Time—Distance

 

The expression of distance has long been in terms of
miles, kilometers, or other spatial units. More recently,
however, time-distance measurements have been emphasized
and has become a common term in the vocabulary of the pro-
fessional and layman alike. Kelley9 states:

High speed roads enabling consumers to travel

farther from home on shopping trips are changing

consumer views on distance . . . distance between

metrOpolitan points will increasingly be judged

on a time basis, not on a mileage basis . . .

For many research purposes minutes are a more mean-
ingful measure than miles because time—distance between
points in space is variable whereas mile distance is
relatively constant. For example, the paving of a dirt,
rural road creates no change in the number of miles from a
rural area to an urban center, but the time-distance
(assuming the use of an automotive vehicle) is considerably
decreased. Berrylo noted that the higher the ratio of
the graveled to paved route, the shorter the distance of
consumer travel.

This simple highway improvement decreases time-cost

between points. Increased mobility encourages people to go

 

9Eugene J. Kelley, "The Importance of Convenience in
Consumer Purchasing," Journal of Marketing, 23 (July, 1958),
pp. 35-36.

10Brian Berry, H. Gardiner Barnum and Robert J. Tenant,
"Retail Location and Consumer Behavior," Papers and Pro-
ceedings,_The Regional Science Association, 9 (1962), p. 98.

 

 

 

I A. a

r ... PC. . f r .

O E n... ....l . J .1 ”J .c .

D. .3 O0 v . Lav «J 1.. D m.» fiw 7.“. .n . 1

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3. a. . . . m. a. .... . e s. o. z. a
and J We .1 . e v vnlu
.I... a a. . r... We a. m: A: O. .7 n .v
OI unit \M. c .9. v r,“ «7U. fi‘ 3.— 01‘ r“; L 94
Pa 1 1h v w u A mi. 0 L . w. “P. O a ....i
...n

 

26
greater distances for the purpose of obtaining goods and
services, and emphasizes certain urban centers as control
places. Hawleyll indicates that small service centers
favorably located in respect to better roads expanded
trade at the expense of others. In addition, the high-
speed, four-lane expressway has effects similar to those
resulting from simple highway improvement, although they
may also adversely affect larger communities (greater than
2,500 population) as well as many of the smaller places.
Horwoodl2 indicates that retail sales in centers up to
5,000 population are more adversely affected by highway

by-passes than in those greater than 5,000 population.

Friction in Movement
Friction in movement is described as a force retarding
mobility. If this phenomenon did not exist, traveling from
one point in space to another would be effortless and ex—
tremely rapid. However, this constraint does exist, and
plays an important role in determining the mobility of
people. Some factors used to determine the travel habits
of shoppers are related to properties of the population
and places where they live. Others are directly associated
with the type and degree of transportation development.
Characteristics of people and places which are fric-

tional forces affecting the movement of the consumer have

 

llHawley, 9p,cit., p. 5.

l2Horwood, 9p,cit., p. 28.

27
been studied extensively.13 Ethnic association, race,
social rank, income, education level, age, and automobile
ownership of the population are frequently mentioned
variables significant in determining mobility, while
quantity, quality, variety and price of goods, parking
facilities, and service in a trading center are considered
important. Transformation of these elements leads to an
increase or decrease in friction in movement, the amount
depending on the degree and direction of the change. If
the characteristics remain relatively stable, friction is
unaltered unless other restraints are lessened.

In places where a high speed, limited access highway
is constructed other forces such as time, cost, effort, and
stress are reduced for those traveling between points in
space connected by the new facility. Consequently the
mobility of the population will increase, but the degree
is influenced by the strength of retarding forces associated

with the traits of the people and places receiving highway

 

l3See among others Peter Haggett, Locational Analysis
in Human Geogpaphy (New York: St. Martin's Press, 1966),
Ch. 2; Sidney Goldstein, "The Aged Segment of the Market,
1950—1960," Journal of Marketing (April, 1968), pp. 62-68;
Allan Goodwin, "Attitudes and Shopper Mobility," Highway
Research Record, 233 (1968), pp. 16-26; Melvin M. Webber,
"Culture, Territoriality, and the Elastic Mile," Regional
Science Association,pPapers and Proceedings, 13 (1964),
pp. 59-69; George Ziph, Human Behavior and the Principal
of Least Effort (Cambridge: Massachusetts: Addison
Wesley Press, Inc., 1949).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

0.-
cs.
‘n:l [A1-v‘--
'u «AU-

1‘6 as CH

 

 

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8 . .1 .1 1 1 S C ma ma 18 ....
C S d S C. MW e u. n. I y .
. . S

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a. n.“ w. ,1 .. o S a 0 ml L

r. y. . .l n u .l. rlu ad n . O n

on AU L . ad n3 T. IL 0 A.» -. ¢

 

 

...-ll. ..ll... .1. L? 55... 3h; ,
‘
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28
14

improvement.

Dispersion of Pppulation

 

Up to this point, mobility has been inferred as a
reason for the convergence of people to trade at certain
urban places. The location and the composition of the re-
tail outlets give advantages to some trade centers, which
then become strengthened central points at the expense of
others. In many of the large centers, however, decreased
time-distance, decreased friction in movement and increased
accessibility not only create points of convergence but
also places from which dispersion of population is initiated.
Increased mobility has allowed people to be employed in a
large center and yet live in a distant, smaller community
or rural area. By taking advantage of their greater freedom
to travel, commuters have dispersed from the central city
into "suburbia" and beyond.

Much research has been done in relation to the impact

of the commuter in the urban fringe and in small centers

 

1"Richard M. Micheals, "Attitudes of Drivers Toward
Alternative Highways and Their Relation to Route Choice,"
Highway Research Record, 122 (1966), pp. 50—74.

 

29
surrounding large cities.15 A study of Indianapolis shows
how highway improvement has extended the distance which
employees travel.16 The largest percentage of commuters
came from the counties surrounding the center with the
longest journeys to work being made on a four-lane, limited
access highway to the west of Indianapolis. Another study
indicates that the influence of the commuter on the areas
not previously easily accessible to the large urban center

17

brings about a considerable change. The construction of
the Garden State Parkway in New Jersey, for example,
reversed the trend of a decline in commercial establishments
and housing developments, bringing a sharp increase in

retail sales, home construction, population growth and

buying power to many New Jersey counties and small cities.

 

15See among others, A.J. Bone and Martin Wohle,
"Massachusetts Route 128 Impact Study," Highway Research
Board Bulletin, 227 (1950), pp. 21—50; Julia Conally and
Charles 0. Meiburg, "The Washington Capital Beltway and Its
Impact on Industrial and Multi-Family Expansion in Virginia,"
Highway Research Record, 217 (1968), pp. 9-27; W.W. Johnston,
"Travel Time and Planning," Traffic Quarterly, 10 (January,
1956), pp. 67-78; and James E. Vance, Jr., "Labor—Shed,
Employment Field, Dynamic Analysis in Urban Geography,"
Economic Geography, 36 (July, 1960), pp. 189-220; and William
Garrison, et.al., Studies of Highway Development and Geo-
graphic Change (Seattle: University of Washington Press,
1959 -

 

 

 

 

 

16Manufacturing and Commuting in Metropolitan Indian-
apolis (a mimeographed report prepared by the Metropolitan
Planning Department of Marion County, 1960).

 

17Louis D. Tonte, "The Garden State Parkway's Economic
Impact in New Jersey," Traffic Quarterly, 13 (1959),
pp. 198-206.

 

30

These changes were due, at least in part, to the improved

accessibility to New York City. Northam18

has noted that
fewer centers close to major cities declined in population
between 1940 and 1960 than those at a great distance.

Hart and Salisbury19

also found a negative correlation
between decline in population in small communities and

distance from a neighboring city of 25,000 people.

Increased Mobility and Changinngrban Retail Structure

 

Improved accessibility, decreased time distance and
decreased friction in movement are important in explaining
the increasing mobility of the population and the effect
of convergence and dispersion on urban centers. Although
the impact varies considerably from place to place depending
on the characteristics of the center involved, the mobility
factor has a tremendous effect on the retail sales volume
and structure of urban centers.

The increased ability of people to travel provides the
consumer with a greater selection of trade centers and
fosters both change in his shopping habits and the creation

of a competitive market among urban places. Bennett2O

 

l8Ray M. Northam, "Declining Urban Centers in the
States: 1940-1960," Annals of the Association of American
Geographers, 53 (March, 1963), pp. 50-59.

19John F. Hart and Neil E. Salisbury, "Population
Change in Middle Western Villages," Annals of the Associa-
tion of American Geographers, 55 (March, 1965), pp. 140-160.

2OV.W. Bennett, "Consumer Buying Habits in a Small
Town Located Between Two Large Cities," Journal of Marketing,
8 (1944), pp. 405—416.

31
points out two important factors in the choice of a place
to shOp: (l) a better price structure and (2) a greater
aggregation of stores in large centers. Increased travel
cost will theoretically more than be offset by greater
savings from trips to centers with these attributes.

21 notes that consumers have become mobile and are

Thompson

no longer restricted to local choices. They may be willing

to incure high secondary costs, such as time, effort and

travel expenditures, to shop where they believe product

and price offerings to be more compatible with their desires.
People are now traveling farther and more frequently

to purchase high and low order goods on both single and

multi-purpose trips.22

The effect of the altered shopping
habits, via the increased mobility of consumers, initiates
two contributing factors resulting in a change of retail
structure in a given center: (1) the range of a good in a
given center A is extended; and (2) the sale of that same
good may not reach the threshold limit in competing center
B. For example, a jewelry store exists in urban center A,
having a trade area which can easily support it. In
community B, smaller and less complex than A, a jewelry

store relies upon a region which barely exceeds the thres-

hold limit. Completion of a highway increases the mobility

 

21John Thompson, "Characteristics and Behavior of Out
Shopping Consumers," Journal of Retailing, 47 (Spring,
1971), pp. 70-78.

22Garrison, e§,a;., loc.cit., ch. 11.

 

32
between A and B resulting in (1) an extended range of sale
in the jewelry store at A and (2) a lowered actual limit
of the goods sold by the jewelry store in B. As the de-
crease in the trade area below the threshold limit occurs
forcing the closing of jewelry store B, a change in the
retail structure results (Figure 3).

While this process is taking place between A and B,

B may be gaining a business from center 0, and A losing one
to city M. This develOpment has been noted by Berry.23
Marysville, which lies close to a larger city, Everett,
Washington, increased its local functions by gaining those
which were carried on in small towns; yet at the same time
it lost many types of retailers to larger centers. It was
concluded that there is a shifting upward of city functions
due to increased mobility. This points to fewer larger
cities performing more functions 0f today's towns, and
small towns, villages and hamlets are continuing to fade
away commercially.

The increased number of retailers prevalent in large
urban places is not limited to the central business district;
in fact, the CBD is becoming more specialized. Most of the
complexity has been added by the appearance of an aggrega-

24

tion of stores in the form of shopping centers, which

 

23Brian Berry and William Garrison, "Cities and Free-
ways," Landscape, 10 (1958-1959), pp. 20-24.

2"In referring to shopping centers the author means
regional as Opposed to neighborhood.

33

 

 

CHANGING NATURE OF THE TRADE AREA A

A. PREINTERSTATE

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

B. INTERSTATE BYPASS

 

 

 

 

 

..--.. THRESHOLD LINIT FOR OOOD SOLD

TRADE AREA FOR GOOD SOLD IN A

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Figure 3

34
have resulted from the dispersion of population and have
become significant points of convergence.

There are many assets of a shopping center which
capitalizes on the increased mobility of the population,
including a variety of tenants who occupy the center
(generally a department store and a supermarket around
which are located specialty shops),25 availability of
parking space which is essential because the majority of
patrons drive their cars to shop, and location which is
important in assuring accessibility to a large market area.
Many shopping centers are located near expressway inter-
changes because the freeway taps a wide area due to time
and distance advantages.26

With these assets, the shopping centers add to the
drawing power and retail strength of a given central place
which, in turn, contributes to change in the choice of
where peOple purchase goods and services. The shopping
centers may be even more important as an attraction to
"out of town" consumers than is the CBD.

Based on concepts which include causes of increased

mobility and the effect of mobility on urban places as

 

25Morris L. Sweet, "Tenant-Selection Policies of
Regional Shopping Centers," Journal of Marketing, 23 (April,
1959), pp. 399-“05.

26Wilbur Smith and Associates, Community Development
and Service Library File No. 6M62 (New Haven, Connecticut:
no date); Barrie Barstow Greenbie, "Interchange Planning in
a Rural Area," Traffic Quarterly, XXIV, 2 (April, 1970),
pp. 265-277.

 

 

 

35
points of convergence and zones of dispersion, a model was
described. While the inclusion of the assumptions limits
the adaptation of the model to reality, it does allow one
to consider the process of change which occurs with highway
improvement under controlled circumstances. The model also
does not account for the impact of the loss of transient
and outlying trade area consumers. This, however, is sec-
ondary to the change in primary purchasing patterns of local
consumers, except in the very small places. With this
basic understanding one may proceed to analyze the effect

of I95 on consumer purchasing patterns.

CHAPTER III
THE IMPACT OF I95 ON CONSUMER
PURCHASING PATTERNS

The principal sources for retail business in most
communities are the local consumer, the outlying trade
area customers, and transients. Highway improvement affects
the decision of the members of each group as to where they
buy goods and services. In most previous highway impact
studies, however, the changes in local consumer purchasing
patterns have been neglected. People do take advantage
of the increased accessibility to a larger and more complex
trade center at the expense of the merchants in their own
community, a process described in Chapter II. In many
towns which are connected to a larger place by a new highway,
the loss of local consumers is equally if not more signifi-
cant than the decline in outlying trade area customers and
transients. There is considerable variation from place to
place in the degree of change in consumer purchasing patterns
and analyzing these differences will lead to a better under—
standing of the effect of I95 on retail sales and structure.

In order to determine the impact of the Interstate on
shopping patterns in selected Maine communities, field

studies were conducted in seventeen centers (Table l). The

36

37
Table 1

Maine Study Centers

 

 

 

Center Population Center Population
Houlton 8,289 Howland 1,313
Island Falls 1,018 Old Town 8,626
Sherman Mills 1,03“ Orono 8,341
Patten 1,312 Newport 2,322
Millinocket 7,453 Pittsfield “,010
East Millinocket 2,392 Clinton 1,729
Mattawamkeag 9H5 Bath 10,717
Lincoln u,5u1 Freeport 4,055
Yarmouth 3,517

 

places, ranging in size from hamlet to small city, were
affected by highway improvement during the 1960's. The
type of development was a high speed, limited access highway
including both two and four lane. The new facility provided
an increased choice of shopping opportunities for the local
population by giving them easier transportation accessibility
to larger neighbors, and at the same time decreased the
volume of traffic and possibly transient trade in the small
centers.

There are no published data on local consumer purchasing
patterns in Maine communities located in the I95 corridor.
Hence, the major source of information came from interviews.

The interviews were conducted in all study centers, the

38
number varying from fifteen in the small hamlets to fifty
in the larger places. Interviewees were selected by using
a random sample taken from telephone directories. If the
person could not be contacted on the first or second attempt,
he was ignored and replaced by another random selection.
Each individual was questioned about his place of work,
occupation, shopping habits, and the general effect of the
highway on his community.

The basic information gained was the number of people
who had shifted their primary purchasing from their own town
to another center for certain types of goods. An example
of these data is shown in Table 2. Also noted was the
increased frequency of trips to a larger place by those who
did not alter their primary purchasing patterns and the
specific outside center patronized before and after the
construction of I95.

A major problem in utilizing the interviewing technique
was the time which had elapsed between the opening of some
sections of the Interstate and the date of the interviews.
Several people who were contacted did not live in the com—
munities or were not the head of the household before the
construction of the highway. For example, only 37 of 50
consumers questioned in Old Town were heads of the house-
hold who lived there when I95 was introduced, and 16 of 30
in Orono, 25 of 30 in Pittsfield, and 37 of 60 in Freeport
and Yarmouth. It is also questionable how many people

accurately recalled where they shopped eight to ten years

 

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ago, or precisely remember when they altered their
purchasing patterns.

Another problem was evaluating the relative signifi-
cance of the improved accessibility to a larger city via
the Interstate and the development of additional shopping
opportunities in the study center or the larger neighbor
in the decision of local consumers to alter their purchasing
patterns. In two cases, Bath and East Millinocket, the
completion of a shopping plaza in a larger neighbor occurred
at the same time a section of new highway was opened. Most
of the interviewees in these two communities claimed both
facilities were important in their decision to shop in the
larger place, but put considerably more emphasis on the
plaza. Many people in the other study centers also men-
tioned the drawing power of a shopping plaza, but most felt
it to be secondary to the convenience provided by 195.
Despite these problems, the interviews were the best source
of information available and are sufficiently reliable to
form some conclusions.

The impact of the Interstate on changes in the
quantity of transients and outlying trade area consumers
purchasing goods in the study centers was more difficult
to assess than the altered shopping patterns of local
residents, due to the lack of data. Some information was
obtained from consumer interviews, but supplementary
sources were required. Consequently, merchant interviews

were also conducted in each study center, the number

41
varying with the size of the place. In the hamlets and
villages all available proprietors were interviewed, but
in those places with many retail establishments (more than
one in each category of stores as defined by Dun and Brad-
streetl) a stratified random sample was taken from Dun
and Bradstreet with supplements from telephone directories.
One retail outlet from every four in each merchandise group
was interviewed. The questions asked related to changes in
the volume of retail sales, extension or contraction of
the trade area of the store, addition or losses of estab-
lishments, and characteristics of the base employment of
the trade area.

Problems with the merchant interviews were similar to
the ones with the consumers. Some proprietors were not in
business at the time of the introduction of the Interstate,
particularly in the centers which were bypassed in the
early 1960's. More important was that many establishments
which were affected by the highway improvement have closed
or have a different owner since the opening of I95, and the
reasons for the closures had to come from other merchants.
Also many interviewees in the same town were not in agree-
ment about the changes which have taken place in their
community, nor the significance of the highway development
to the local business atmosphere. In most cases, however,

the information helped in determining the loss or gain in

 

1Dun and Bradstreet Reference Book (New York: By the
Author, 1970).

 

 

In“ ‘

 

 

A2
transients and outlying trade area consumers, and the
importance of these two factors in the overall impact

on retail sales and structure.

Changes in Local Consumer Purchasing_Patterns

 

The local consumer interview information was organized
first on the basis of where the individuals in each center
shopped before and after the opening of 195. The data in
Table 3 show the percentage of people who bought most of
their merchandise in town, out of town, or equally between
the two places in the pre- and post-period of highway
development. The percentages are the average for all types
of goods. For example, after highway improvement 56.2 per
cent of the interviewees in Yarmouth obtained most of their
hardware and building materials in town, 68.8 per cent
most of their food, 56.2 per cent most of their gasoline,
etc., with the average for all categories of goods being
36.9 per cent (Table 2). The increase in the percentage of
people shopping out of town after the introduction of I95
is the measure of the altered primary purchasing patterns
of the local consumers.

Table 3 indicates that there was a considerable shift
in the shopping patterns in some centers, but very little
in others. The range in the percentage of people who in-
creased their buying in an out-of—town location after the
opening of the Interstate was from 19.6 per cent in Bath

toIDJD per cent in Howland. The most significant changes

 

 

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44
were in Bath, Old Town, Pittsfield, Freeport, Orono,
Yarmouth, and Millinocket, while there were almost none
in Howland, Clinton, Houlton, Mattawamkeag, and Sherman
Mills. The other communities of Lincoln, Patten, Newport,
Island Falls, and East Millinocket fell in between the
first two groups.

Centers Grouped by Population Size
and Distance to Larger Neighbor

 

 

In order to gain a better understanding of the
variation in the altered purchasing patterns which existed
between the communities, and to test the hypotheses con—
cerning such changes, the study centers were grouped by
population size and the distance from the nearest larger
neighbor on the Interstate. The three categories were:

(1) centers with less than 3000 population and within 30
minutes of a larger place, (2) centers greater than 3000
population and within 30 minutes of a larger commercially
more complex neighbor, and (3) places more than 30 minutes
from a larger trade center. The division lines of 3000
people and 30 minutes established to differentiate the
groups of communities were based on the data from consumer
interviews.

The hypotheses tested are: (1) Consumers in small
centers close to a bigger neighbor will not significantly
shift their primary purchasing to a larger place; (2)
Consumers in medium-sized centers close to a bigger neighbor

will substantially shift their primary purchasing to a

45
larger place; and (3) Consumers in centers more than 30
minutes from a bigger neighbor will moderately shift their
primary purchasing to a larger place.

The underlying assumptions on which the hypotheses
were based are: (1) the people in the hamlets are already
buying most of their goods in a larger center due to the
lack of shopping facilities in their own community. Hence,
little change in purchasing patterns will occur; (2) Consum-
ers in large towns and small cities purchase many of their
needs locally, but the increased accessibility to, and
broader shopping opportunities in a complex trade center
will stimulate these people to buy more goods in the larger
place; and (3) despite improved accessibility the residents
of communities a considerable distance from a more commer-
cially complex center are still too far away to signifi-

cantly shift their purchasing to a larger place.

Small Centers Close to Larger Neighbor

 

Table 4 shows that less than one per cent of the people
in these hamlets shifted their primary purchasing from their
own communities to a larger place. The centers were com-
mercially dominated by a bigger neighbor as is indicated by
the high percentage of local consumers who bought most of
their goods out-of-town before the introduction of I95.
Consequently these hamlets were not significantly hurt by
a loss of local trade. There was, however, a greater

change in the preference of a location in which to purchase

46

 

 

 

 

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mmoz<mo 2mMBB<m 02Hm¢mombm mmzbmzoo

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47
goods than is revealed in the Table 4. Some individuals
chose a different outside center in which to do their
shopping. Also many increased their trips to a more dis-
tant center, usually a regional node.

In the case of Sherman Mills, the people from that
hamlet shopped primarily in Patten, a center fifteen minutes
to the northwest, before the Interstate was completed, and
most still purchase a large share of their goods there
(Figure 4). The time-distance to Island Falls and Houlton,
however, was decreased to fifteen and 41 minutes, respec—
tively, with the opening of 195. The trip time to Patten
remained the same. Even though only one person in Sherman
Mills mentioned that his family did most of their purchasing
in Houlton today, whereas before Patten was their shopping
place, six others claimed more frequent trips to Houlton
and to a lesser degree Bangor and Millinocket. Buying at
these centers was at the expense of Patten rather than
Sherman Mills.

Mattawamkeag, which is located eighteen minutes north
of Lincoln is commercially dominated by its larger neighbor.
Consequently, most of the consumers from the hamlet met
their basic needs in Lincoln before the construction of I95
and still do (Figure 4). The Interstate did not improve
the accessibility between Mattawamkeag and Lincoln, but the
time-distance to Bangor, a regional node, declined from 80
to 65 minutes. The change in consumer purchasing by Matta-

wamkeag residents was primarily the increased shopping

48

 

  
   

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

    

 

I
NORTHERN MAINE STUDY CENTERS l
9.0 '9 40 i
III“
Tm with interchange —o-— i
"mum. 95 um Intch-.-— N .
Stat. Mime, and root. motor —a'— T |
Federal highway and route hunter —8—— .
POPULATION CENTERS |
Uh“: 3000 0 menu '
3000 to uo.ooo o uouuou I
i
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I" I
I l
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Figure 4

49
trips to Bangor. Five of the fifteen interviewees in the
hamlet claimed more frequent journeys to the regional node
to the disadvantage of businesses in Lincoln.

Howland, located fifteen minutes south of Lincoln and
25 minutes north of Old Town also lost little from a shift
in the purchasing patterns by its residents (Figure 5). As
in the case of Mattawamkeag, there was no decrease in the
time-distance to Lincoln, and only a two minute decline to
Old Town. The trip to Bangor, however, was cut by sixteen
minutes (50 to 34 minutes). Both Lincoln and Old Town were
the major trade centers for the consumers of Howland before
the construction of I95, but since that time Bangor has
provided more competition for these two towns. Three of
the fifteen interviewees in Howland stated that they now
do most of their shopping in Bangor rather than Lincoln
and Old Town, and seven others buy more frequently in the
regional node.

The consumers in Clinton did not indicate any change
in their primary purchasing patterns. Most had always done
their shopping in Waterville, a regional node just fourteen
minutes away, and the Interstate only stimulated more fre-
quent trips to the larger center (Figure 6).

In summary, although the consumers in the hamlets did
not significantly shift their primary purchasing patterns
from their own community to a larger place, some did change
their choice of the outside center in which to shop (Figure

7). Also, highway improvement generated more frequent

50

 

CENTRAL MAINE STUDY CENTERS

Interetete 96 with Interchange —-O-—

xn ...,
Stete htdwey end route Mill“! ——n—— (ex

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POPULATION CENTERS

Uhhr 3000 O I“.

3000 te 00.000 9 on?“ T
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Figure 5

51

 

 

 

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SOUTHERN MAINE
STUDY CENTERS

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POPULATION CENTERS
Under 3000 O can.»
3000 te 00.000 0 “canton
Over I0.000 .5”ij Aueuen

 

 

Figure 6

52

 

IMPACT OF I95 ON
CONSUMER PURCHASING PATTERNS
SMALL CENTERS CLOSE TO A LARGER NEIGI'IBOR

 

 

MATTAWAMKEAG
lEflMEI IMHIR
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000$ PERCENT” OF NATION em OUT OF rm

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Figure 7

53

trips to a regional node, but primarily at the expense of

a bigger neighbor rather than the hamlet itself. The data
support the hypothesis: Consumers in small centers close
to a bigger neighbor will not significantly shift their
primary purchasing to a larger place as a result of a major
highway improvement.

Medium—Sized Centers Close
to Larger Neighbor

 

The impact of 195 on the primary purchasing patterns of
consumers in medium—sized centers close to a bigger neighbor
was considerably different from that in the hamlets. Table
5 shows that in every community there was a significant
increase in the percentage of the interviewees who were
shopping mostly in a commercially more complex trade center
after the completion of the highway improvement. There
was also a high degree of regularity in the percentage
changes with the exception of Bath, which felt the effect
of two simultaneous developments —— a shopping plaza in
nearby Brunswick and the new highway. In addition to the
people who altered their basic purchasing patterns, there
was a noteworthy increase in the frequency of trips to a
larger center by the other interviewees. Unlike the con-
sumers in the hamlets, however, the individuals from these
centers continued to patronize the same outside city as
they did before the Interstate was opened. This was due
to the fact that the neighbor was a regional node.

The consumers in Bath made the greatest shift in their

54

 

 

 

 

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mo psoo mom mo pcoo pom
m <

 

 

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mmwz<mo zmmee<m 02Hm<mombm mmzbmzoo

m mHQmB

55

primary purchasing patterns, but as previously mentioned, the
reasons were only partly related to highway development.
Bath, which is located only ten and 35 minutes from Brunswick
and Portland, respectively, maintained its position as a
trade center during the late 1950's and early 1960's despite
the problems in the local shipbuilding industry (Figure 6).
In 1966 two developments took place which affected the shop-
ping patterns of the Bath pOpulation. One was the opening
of the four-lane, limited-access Route One extension of 195
which decreased the time—distance to Brunswick and Portland.
The other was the completion of a seventeen-establishment
shopping plaza at Cooks Corner on the eastern periphery of
Brunswick. Based on the consumer interviews, the attrac-
tions of the plaza appeared to be more significant in the
decision on a place to shop than the increased accessibility
provided by the highway development. One of the reasons for
the drawing power of the plaza was that some of its tenants
were formerly located in the CBD of Bath, and of particular
importance was the relocation of a large department store.
Consequently the advantage of downtown Bath was weakened.

Most of the people did, however, feel that the improved
segment of Route One made it easier to reach the shopping
plaza in Brunswick and the Portland area. Fifteen of the
fifty interviewees from Bath claimed more frequent trips to
Portland.

Yarmouth and Freeport are also located in southwestern

Maine (Figure 6). These two centers were connected to

56
Portland in 1962 by a section of I95, leaving them only
sixteen and 21 minutes from the larger city. respectively.
Because of the time lapse between the highway development
and the interviews, and the significant growth in population
in the two towns, only 37 of 60 people questioned were
residing there in 1962. It was difficult to separate those
who had shifted their primary purchasing to a larger center
a short time after 1962 and those who only recently started
shopping in an outside center. New plazas have been devel—
oped in the Portland area since the construction of the
Interstate. One new facility, a 38—tenant complex completed
in 1968, is only five minutes from Yarmouth. The data in
Table 5, however, represents the consumers who claimed to
have changed their shopping habits within a three-year
period after the highway improvement.

The only basic difference in the altered primary pur-
chasing patterns between consumers in Yarmouth and Freeport
was that the people in Freeport chose two outside locations,
Brunswick, and far more importantly, the Portland area,
while the residents of Yarmouth went to the latter. Also
80 per cent of the interviewees who still shop primarily
in their own community have increased their trips to a
larger neighbor.

Orono and Old Town are located ten and fifteen minutes,
respectively, north of Bangor (Figure 5). Both centers were
connected to the larger city in 1961 and consequently,

similar problems with the consumer interviews existed for

57

these two communities as in Yarmouth and Freeport.

There was a considerable shift in the primary pur-
chasing patterns by consumers in both centers, with Bangor
being the principal recipient of the change. Table 5 does
not, however, reveal the fact that there was a greater
change among the people in Orono. A large percentage of
the consumers from Orono shopped out of town before the
introduction of the Interstate, dividing their patronage
between Old Town, which received 65 per cent, and Bangor,
with 35 per cent. Since that time the situation has been
reversed with Bangor obtaining approximately 55 per cent of
the business from Orono peOple who do their primary pur-
chasing in a larger neighbor.

Pittsfield, located 20 minutes north of Waterville,
had a similar percentage of consumers shift their primary
purchasing patterns to a larger place (Figure 5). Also
there were eleven other people who increased their trips
to an outside center. Waterville was the destination for
most of the Pittsfield residents who shopped in a commer-
cially more complex center, but Bangor was the choice of
a few.

One reason for the high percentage of people who
shopped in Waterville was not evident in the other centers.
Two chain food stores closed after I95 was opened. There
was disagreement among the merchants in the town as to the
cause of the closures, most feeling that it was the result

of company policy, while a few said it was the decline in

58

patronage. Consequently, some questions are raised. Did
the consumers of Pittsfield change their preferences of a
place to purchase food due to the improved accessibility
to Waterville, thus making it necessary for the stores to
close? Or did the business cease operations because of
company policy, forcing people to shop elsewhere? The
latter seems to be the logical conclusion when considering
the distance to Waterville and the nature of the product.

In summary, it can be concluded that people in these
towns did take advantage of the increased accessibility to
a larger trade center and changed their shopping patterns
considerably (Figure 8). Although the time lapse between
the highway improvement and the interviews, and other pro—
blems which were discussed made it difficult to precisely
assess the impact of I95 on local purchasing patterns, there
was enough evidence to support the hypothesis: Consumers
in medium-sized centers close to a bigger neighbor will
substantially shift their primary purchasing patterns to
a larger place.

Centers More Than 30 Minutes
From Larger Neighbor

 

 

The last group of communities was comprised of those
places which were more than 30 minutes from a larger
neighbor. Table 6 reveals that with the exception of
Millinocket and Houlton the shift in the local consumer
primary purchasing patterns was greater than in the hamlets

and less than in the medium-sized towns which were close

59

IMPACT OF I95 ON
CONSUMER PURCHASING PATTERNS

hEDIW-SIZED CENTERS CLOSE TO A LARGER NEIGHBOR

 

 

 

 

WARNKMITH Cl1>1MnNN
Km AFTER Em AFTER
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«as; 4“ ,‘ no as 30.";
+ +
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PITTSFIELD F REEPORT
DEM! AFTER
33.015 43.413
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BATH
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W.O% PERCENTAGE W mm m OUT N T"

—.m ~ mm ~ m CENTER ”TEN m W‘NT
L“ .I.' A .I

Figure 8

 

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mama: mafiamocm mafiamonm honnwfioz nowamq COHumHSQom howsoo
< coaumadmom cofipmasoom Eonm mocmpmfio
mo pcoo pom mo pcoo mom
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mmoz<mo zmmee<m UZHm¢momDm mmzbmzoo

m manna

61
to a larger center. The change in the people's shopping
habits was more varied when viewed in detail than Table 6
indicates, and there is also a logical explanation for the
deviate cases of Houlton and Millinocket.

The percentage of consumers in Houlton who altered
their primary purchasing patterns was much smaller than the
other places in this group. The characteristics of Houlton
as a trade center and its distance to a larger neighbor
helps explain the low percentage.

Houlton is the only community studied, with the excep-
tion of smaller Patten, Island Falls, and Sherman Mills,
that has the primary function of being a market center. The
town is the focal point of the southern part of agricultural
Aroostook County and dominates the region in providing
retail products and services. In 1970 Houlton accounted
for 86 per cent of the retail trade while having only 48
per cent of the population in the area. Consequently, the
town provides a wide range of goods and services to satisfy
the demands of the local residents. In addition, Houlton
is still two hours from its larger neighbor, Bangor, despite
a decrease of 35 minutes after the opening of I95 (Figure
4). Hence, the broad shopping opportunities existing in
Houlton and the great distance to Bangor have retarded the
shift in shopping patterns.

Even the increase in the trips to Bangor was less than
anticipated. Only five of fifty interviewees indicated

that they shopped more frequently in Bangor for a few

62
selected items. Seven other people claimed that when the
Interstate was first completed they went to Bangor "to try
the highway out," but now have gone back to their former
purchasing patterns.

The consumers in Millinocket changed their shopping
habits far more than expected, particularly when considering
the distance to a larger neighbor. The town is Still 75
minutes from Bangor, even though the time for a trip has
been decreased by 30 minutes (Figure 5). Many people have
always bought a significant share of their goods in an
out-of-town location, as is indicated in Table 6. A plaus-
ible explanation of these purchasing patterns lies in the
characteristics of the community and its pOpulation.

First, Millinocket is an industrial town and is
dominated by one firm, the Great Northern Paper Company.
This high-paying manufacturer makes the community one of
the leaders in per capita income in the state. Consequently
many consumers with high incomes and work schedules, which
give them a week of days "off" every third to fifth week,
have the opportunity to frequent an outside center.

Secondly, Millinocket has a relatively small and
limited shopping district in terms of types and variety of
retail outlets. Food stores, automotive dealerships and
service stations are dominant, and together account for
almost 70 per cent of the total retail sales in the town.
There are few specialty shops dealing in clothing, shoes,

and other items desired by the local consumers. Hence,

63
the lack of shopping facilities has stimulated the people
to purchase goods elsewhere.

The interviewees from Millinocket who shopped in an
outside center before I95 was opened chose two locations,
Bangor and to a lesser degree Lincoln. After the highway
development, however, most of the people who had formerly
purchased goods in Lincoln and the additional group who had
shifted their primary purchasing patterns from Millinocket
bypassed Lincoln in favor of Bangor. Also the large number
(70 per cent) of consumers who still do most of their shop-
ping in Millinocket but have increased their trips to a
larger center make Bangor their destination.

East Millinocket provides another example of the varia-
tion in the changing shopping patterns. Similar to Bath,
two develOpments occurred in 1966 which affected the pur-
chasing patterns of the East Millinocket consumers. One was
the opening of the Interstate which decreased the time-
distance to Bangor from 95 to 65 minutes, and the other was
the completion of a new shopping plaza in Millinocket
(Figure 5). It was easier to separate the impact of the
two events, however, than it was in the case of Bath. East
Millinocket was not connected to Millinocket by highway
improvement. Hence the influence of the shopping plaza
could be differentiated from that of 195.

The 4.7 per cent increase in the number of people who
altered their primary purchasing patterns was due to the

highway development. The consumers made a similar change

64
as those in Millinocket. Those who had formerly shopped in
Lincoln and Bangor now go to the latter center, as well as
the large number of individuals (60 per cent) who increased
their frequency of trips to an out-of-town location.

Island Falls, a village with only a few retail outlets
is located 27 and 15 minutes from Houlton and Patten, respec—
tively (Figure 4). The consumers from the small center have
always purchased many of their goods in these two neighbors,
but since the completion of I95 the accessibility to Houlton
has been improved while the time-distance to Patten has
remained the same. Consequently, not only was there a
shift in the local consumer purchasing patterns from Island
Falls to Houlton, but also approximately eight per cent of
the interviewees who had formerly shopped primarily in
Patten now go to Houlton.

The altered shopping patterns in the other three
centers in this group -- Patten, NeWport, and Lincoln -—
were similar (Figures 4 and 5). These people shifted their
local primary purchasing patterns or increased their trips
to a regional node where they were already buying goods.

In the case of NeWport and Lincoln, the interviewees went
to Bangor, and the consumers from Patten chose Houlton.

In summary it is evident that highway improvement did
have an impact on local consumer purchasing patterns in
centers which are a considerable distance from a larger

neighbor (Figure 9). There may be a limit, however, to the

distance which people are willing to travel for most types

 

65

IMPACT OF 195 ON
CONSUMER PURCHASING PATTERNS

CENTERS MORE THAN SOWTES FROMA LARGER NEW

 

 

 

 

 

  
 

PATTEN HOULTON
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Figure 9

66

of goods, as was demonstrated by the case of Houlton. Also
other characteristics of a community besides population
size and distance to a larger neighbor may be important in
explaining the variation of consumers' shopping patterns,
as was evident in Millinocket. The consistency in the per-
centage of people who did alter their purchasing patterns
does generally support the hypothesis: Consumers in centers
more than 30 minutes from a larger neighbor will moderately
shift their primary purchasing to a larger place.
Changes in Consumer Purchasing Patterns
for Different Types of Goods

The consumer interviews not only provided information
on the altered local consumer purchasing patterns, but also
the types of goods for which people changed their shopping
habits. It was assumed that people were willing to travel
farther for some merchandise than for others; thus it was
hypothesized: People will shift their purchasing for high
order more than low order goods. It was also anticipated
that there would be considerable variation from center to
center in the percentage of consumers who altered their
purchasing patterns for the same type of merchandise, but
there would be some regularity among people living in
communities with similar population size and distance to a
larger neighbor characteristics.

The data were organized first on the basis of the

altered consumer purchasing patterns for each category

67

2 in all centers. Table 7 shows that the percentage

of goods
of interviewees who increased their buying of merchandise
in an outside center ranged from 2.6 per cent for gasoline
to 15.5 per cent for department store items. There was an
above-average rise in the percentage of people who obtained
their apparel and accessories (10.4 per cent), hardware and
building materials (8.0 per cent), and food (6.8 per cent)
in a larger center, and a below average increase for drug—
store items (3.1 per cent), furniture (4.3 per cent),
restaurants (5.0 per cent), and automobiles (5.9 per cent).
This indicates that people were willing to increase
their travel for some higher order goods such as department-
store items and apparel, but not as much for automobiles
and furniture. Consumers also significantly changed their
shopping patterns for some low-order goods such as food
and hardware items while they did not for gasoline and
drugstore items. It is interesting to note, however, that
most of the individuals who chose another location for
buying much of their food and hardware items were thOse
who claimed to still purchase 50 per cent of these products
in their own community. This is not true for the higher
order ofgoods and suggests that the consumers from the
study centers are obtaining a significant portion of their

low-order goods in a larger neighbor on multipurpose shopping

trips.

 

2Categoriesof goods were taken from the U.S. Census
of Business classification.

68

 

 

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0.0 m.0: 0.00 0.0m 0.0: 0.00 0.mm mo002osO02¢
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000 000000

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020 002000<

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020 @2200222m

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0.00 0.0m 0.00 0.00 0.0: 0.00 0.mm 002000 00002m> 020
.0Qom 002 002o2ow

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020 opmzvpmm

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2300 mo 020 2300 020 000 2300 020 000
20 mo 050 230020 000 230020 mo 020 23o02H 000 230020 0000 no @009
0000202H 02090020 02090020 02000020 02000020 02000020 02000020
02o0 200 0200 2mm 02o0 now 0200 2mm 0200 2mm 0200 000 02o0 2mm

 

 

02oEo>ommEH 0032mfim omomom 02o§o>ongH 0032000 mmpm<

 

 

mmoom mo mMHmOUmB¢o mom mwz<mo 02Hm¢mombm mMZDmZOo A¢BOB

0 @0205

69

Another evident pattern is the percentage of people
who continued to buy low-order goods in their own community
after the highway improvement still remained consistently
greater than that for higher order goods. Hence, it is
apparent that most consumers will travel farther for higher
order merchandise, but the hypothesis "People will shift
their purchasing patterns for higher order more than lower
order goods," must be rejected.

In order to investigate the variation in the percentage
of consumers who altered their primary purchasing patterns
for each type of merchandise, the communities were grouped
by population size and distance to a larger neighbor. The
divisions were the same as the ones for the analysis of the
overall change in shopping patterns.

The first group included the centers of Sherman Mills,
Mattawamkeag, Howland and Clinton. These hamlets provided
very few goods for their populations, with only food, hard-
ware, and gasoline being found in all four communities.
Table 8 reveals that the consumers did not significantly
alter their purchasing patterns for any goods.3 The great-
est change was in Howland, but resulted from the closing
of one retail establishment and the opening of another,
and was not caused by the construction of the Interstate.
The interviewees from these hamlets did, however, purchase

some goods in a different outside center than they patronized

 

3For detailed statistics see appendix A.

7O

 

 

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 00002020020

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 02000
02000 0222

0.0 0.001 0.0 0.0 000000 02022022
020 020000

0.0 0.00 0.0 0.0 00020000000
020 0020000

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 02000000
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 00202002222 0202
020 022002222
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0002
002000 000020>

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 020 -0202
.0002 0020200

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 000020002 .0000
020 02030202

2002000 0200302 00002 2022020 000220300002

 

02020>o2g20 2032002 200m< 00002020 0200 202

0000 00 0009

 

 

20220002 200200 2022 0002202 om 2022 0000 «2000002202 ooom 2022 0000 0200200

02000 mo mMHmOGMB¢o mom mwz<mo zmmee¢m wsz<momDm mmzbmzoo

w 00209

71

before the completion of I95. The general change in the
choice of an outside center was discussed previously. The
type of merchandise was primarily apparel and department
store items, except in Howland, where in addition to these
goods, food was being obtained more frequently in Bangor.

There was a greater shift in the primary purchasing
patterns for most goods by the local consumers in the larger
centers of Bath, Freeport, Pittsfield, Old Town, Orono and
Yarmouth. These communities provided at least one retail
outlet for each category of merchandise, but the number and
quality of stores varied from town to town. Consequently
the percentage of people patronizing their local business
establishments before the highway development was different
for each center and partially accounts for the variation in
the altered shopping patterns for each group of goods after
the opening of 195.1“l

Table 9 reveals weak similarities between the per-
centages of interviewees in each center who altered their
purchasing patterns for the various types of merchandise.
The greatest changes were for department store items, apparel,
automobiles, hardware and building materials, and food.
There was a lesser increase for furniture, gasoline, drug-
store items, and restaurants. Extremes are evident, however,
within most categories of goods.

An explanation for the deviate cases in most instances

 

“For detailed statistics see Appendix A.

72

 

 

0.00 0.0 m.mm 0.0 0.0 0.00 00002020022
0.0 :.0 m.m :.m 0.: :.m 02000
02000 0220
0.0- 0.: 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.00 000002 02022020
020 020000
0.2m 0.0m 0.0 m.:0 0.:m 0.0 00020000000
020 0020000
0.: 2.0 2.0 0.: 0.0 0.m 02000000
0.0 2.0 0.0 0.2 0.: 0.0 00202002222 0202
020 002002220
0.00 0.0 :.m 2.0 0.00 m.m 0002
0.00 2.00 0.00 :.m 0.:0 0.00 002000 200020>
020 .0200
.0002 0020200
0.00 2.0 m.m0 0.:0 0.: m.0 000020002 .0000
020 02030200
2000 2300 200 02020 02020022 2000200002 22202202

 

02020002020 0032000 20000 00002020 0200 200

0000 00 000B

 

 

20220002 000200 2020 0002202 0m 2022 0000 .2000002000 000m 2022 2000020 0200200

00000 00 0000000900 000 002000 2009900 0200020020 00200200

0 0020B

73
involves a complex set of factors including the quantity
and quality of goods offered in each center, gain or loss
of a retail establishment, price differentials between
communities on similar goods, and the deve10pment of com-
peting business in a larger neighbor. For example, the
high percentage of local consumers in Bath who altered
their purchasing patterns for department store items was
the result of the relocation of a major department store
from that city to a shopping plaza in Brunswick. The
above-average change by the people of Pittsfield in their
choice of a location to purchase food was caused by the
closure of two chain food stores in that town. In Orono
the residents did not shift their purchasing patterns for
apparel because they were already obtaining most of their
clothing out of town before the Interstate was opened.
Consequently, due to these complexities, generalizations
made about changes in local consumer shopping patterns for
each category of goods must remain as broad statements.

In one center, Orono, people who were purchasing goods
in Old Town before the introduction of I95 switched to
Bangor. Approximately 37 per cent of the interviewees
changed their out-of-town location for buying food and 28
per cent for department store items. The shift for other
goods was less, but significant.

The final group of centers -— Island Falls, Patten,
NeWport, East Millinocket, Lincoln, Millinocket and Houlton ——

consisted of places more than 30 minutes from a larger

74
neighbor. There was a considerable variation between the
communities in the percentage of consumers who bought
different types of goods in-town or out-of-town before
and after highway improvement.5 Table 10 indicates that
the percentage of local consumers who altered their primary
purchasing patterns for most categories of merchandise was
low, the major exceptions being department store items,
apparel and restaurants. There was, however, a considerable
range in the percentage change, reflecting the diversity of
the centers in terms of numbers of retail establishments
and the distance from a larger place.

There were some unique situations which helped explain
part of the altered shopping patterns for certain goods.
For example, in Millinocket and Patten new apparel stores
were opened after I95 was completed, and encouraged some
local consumers to buy more clothing in their own community.
The large increase in the number of East Millinocket resi—
dents who obtained gasoline in another location resulted
from the construction of two service stations at the Inter-
state interchange Just a short distance away. The abnor—
mality which persisted in Millinocket can be partly
attributed to the high incomes and work schedules of many
of the town's residents.

In addition to the changes in purchasing patterns

which are shown in Table 10, some consumers in Island Falls,

 

5For detailed statistics see Appendix A.

75

 

0.0 :.m| 0.00 0.0 m.m 2.00 0.0 00002020022
0.0 0.0 m.m| 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 02000
02000 0222
0.0 2.:0 2.0 m.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 000000 02022022
020 020000
o.m 0.0: 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2: 2.0 00020000002
020 0020202
0.0: 0.0 m.m 0.00 0.0 :.0 0.0 02000000
0.0 0.00 2.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 00202002200 0202
020 022002222
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0000
0.0 0.00 0.00 :.0 0.: 0.0 0.00 002000 200020>
020 .0000
.0002 0020200
0.0 0.00 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 000020002 .0000

020 02030202

 

2000002 00200200002 2000200 00200000002 0000 0200002 200000 00000 020000

 

02020>02020 2032002 20002 00002020 0200 20m

0000 00 022B

 

 

20220002 200200 2022 0002202 om 2029 0202 0200200

02000 20 mmHmOUm9<o 202 202220 2229922 02Hm<2ombm mmzbmzoo

00 00209

76
Millinocket and East Millinocket chose a different outside
center in which to buy particular goods. The outlying commun-
ities involved were discussed previously in this chapter.
The types of merchandise were apparel, department store
items and furniture in the cases of Millinocket and East
Millinocket; and department store items and food in the

example of Island Falls.

Conclusions

 

Considerable information was provided by consumer
interviews, but it was often difficult to completely separ-
ate the significance of highway development and the com-
plexity of other factors in the decisions of people to change
their shopping patterns. This was particularly true for
individual categories of goods. Some general conclusions,
however, were derived about the impact of I95 on the pur—
chasing patterns of local consumers.

People did take advantage of the increased accessibility
to a larger center, not only to buy high-order goods but some
low-order as well. Most common were department store items,
apparel, hardware and building supplies, and food, but all
merchandise was being purchased more frequently in the
larger market centers. The shifts in the primary purchasing
patterns were somewhat different for each community, but
some regularity existed when places were grouped by popu-
lation size and distance from a larger neighbor.

Consumers in hamlets close to a bigger neighbor did not

77
significantly shift their local primary purchasing patterns,
because they were already buying most of their goods in a
larger place. Some individuals did change their choice of
the outside center in which to do their shopping, especially
for apparel and department store items. A regional node
became the new focal point.

People in medium-sized centers within a short distance
of a larger place substantially altered their local primary
purchasing patterns for most types of goods except gasoline,
furniture and drugstore items. There was, h0wever, a con-
siderable variation in the percentage change within each
category of merchandise, reflecting a complexity of factors
besides highway improvement. The interviewees in these
communities did not change their preference of an outside
center, because they were already patronizing a regional
node.

Consumers in places more than 30 minutes from a larger
neighbor only moderately shifted their local primary pur-
chasing patterns. The goods for which these individuals
altered their shopping habits varied considerably, again
indicating the significance of the diversity in the character
of each place. The greatest change was for department store
items, apparel and restaurants. In the communities where
the interviewees were not buying extensively in a regional
node, the residents chose a different outside center in which
to do some of their shopping. The shift was from a smaller

outlying town to the regional node.

78

The data also support the conclusion by Berry and
Garrison6 that communities within a short radius (15-25
miles) of a larger center significantly suffer from a
change in local consumer purchasing patterns due to a
major highway improvement. Many consumers in the Maine
study centers were willing to increase their purchasing of
most goods in larger places up to 25-30 minutes from their
residence. Beyond this time—distance people increased
their buying of only a few selected high order goods in a
distant more complex trade center.

The Impact of 195 on Transient and Outlying
Trade Area Consumer Purchasing Patterns

 

 

The altered primary purchasing patterns and the
increased frequency of trips to a larger center by local
consumers were not the only results from highway improve—
ment, although the most significant for the majority of
communities. The loss or gain of outlying trade area
customers and transients was also important.

In order to better understand the changes in outlying
trade area customers and transients the study centers were
grouped by their altered accessibility to a major route.
The first group included those places which formerly strad—
dled a main highway and were bypassed by the Interstate.
The second was comprised of the communities which were not

on a major route and are now closer to 195 than the former

 

6Brian Berry and William Garrison, "Cities and Free-
ways," Landscape, 10 (1958-1959), pp. 20-2”.

 

79
main highway. The third consisted of towns whose accessi-
bility to a main artery of travel was unaltered by the
Interstate.

It was assumed that the first group of centers would
lose transients and in the larger places, also outlying
trade area consumers, while the communities in the second
category would gain. The towns in the third group were
expected to be unaffected. On the basis of these assump-
tions the following hypothesis is stated to be tested.
Centers which straddled the former major highway and are
bypassed will lose transients and in larger places, also
outlying trade area consumers, while similar communities
which were not on a main route, but now are close to the

Interstate will gain.

The Bypassed Centers

 

The bypassed communities were the most numerous and
included Houlton, Island Falls, Clinton, Mattawamkeag,
Freeport, Orono, Lincoln, Old Town, NeWport, and Pittsfield.
In all but one of these centers, Houlton, the merchants
claimed that there was a decline in either the amount of
transient or outlying trade area consumer business, or
both (Table 11). The degree of the loss, however, varied
considerably from place to place.

Houlton was the only town to gain sales from trans-
ients, deSpite a slight decline in through traffic, and

outlying trade area consumers as a result of the completion

80

Table 11

CHANGES IN VOLUME OF TRAFFIC AND TRANSIENT AND OUTLYING
TRADE AREA CONSUMER BUSINESS IN BYPASSED COMMUNITIES

 

 

 

*Change in Merchant's View
Volume of Merchant's View of Changes in
Center Traffic in of Changes in Outlying Trade
Per Cent Transient Trade Area Consumer
Business
Houlton -l0.0. increase increase
Island Falls -30.8 increase decrease
Orono -AO.3 slight decrease none
Freeport no data slight decrease none
Mattawamkeag —u7.5 decrease none
Clinton -A8.9 decrease none
Lincoln —50.0 decrease decrease
Old Town -AO.3 decrease decrease
NeWport —u6.u decrease slight decrease
Pittsfield -58.7 decrease slight decrease

 

*Maine State Highway Commission, Maine Traffic Flow Maps,
1960, 1964, 1966, 1968.

 

81

of I95, but not for all businesses. Proprietors of two
establishments, a gasoline station and restaurant located
on the old highway, indicated a decrease in transient trade
as a result of being bypassed. Other interviewed merchants,
however, felt that there was a small increase. They cred-
ited the Interstate with bringing more people, particularly
tourists and Canadian shoppers, into the Houlton area. The
new highway provided transients traveling to and from
Maritime Canada a feasible alternative route to the ones
farther south and Houlton benefitted from its position close
to the border (Figure A). A survey on a weekday in August,
1971, in Houlton showed that out of A9 automobiles in the
downtown parking area, five were from another state and
eleven were from Canada. Many Canadians were buying a
variety of goods before returning to the Provinces.

Some businessmen also stated that there was an increase
in the number of customers from the surrounding region, a
notion which was supported by the consumer interviews in
Patten, Sherman Mills, and Island Falls. The merchants,
however, questioned the significance of the Interstate and
indicated that the new shopping plaza was a more important
factor. This new facility, located close to the local
interchange, contained a department store, a chain food
store, a branch bank and four specialty shops, and certainly
added to the drawing power of Houlton, but was not spec—
ifically mentioned by the people from the outlying area as a

reason for their increased purchasing in the regional center.

82

Island Falls also gained transient trade as a result
of the Interstate, but unlike Houlton it lost outlying
trade area consumers. The small village was never heavily
dependent upon highway traffic despite its location on
Route Two, because most people traveling north or south
between Bangor and Houlton used the shorter alternative
Route Two which bypassed Island Falls (Figure A). The
merchants claimed that despite a 30.8 per cent decline in
through traffic the decrease in transients on Route Two
since the opening of 195 was more than compensated for by
the new highway generated traffic. Some tourists, partic-
ularly outdoor recreationists, left the Interstate at
Island Falls to utilize the newly developed camping
facilities on nearby lakes east of the village, and pur-
chased food, gasoline, hardware items and incidental
apparel from local retail establishments.

The merchants did state that there was a significant
loss of consumers from the outlying rural areas and the
smaller centers north and south of the village. The store
owners, however, felt that the improved accessibility to
Houlton was only partly responsible. The major problem
from their viewpoint was the economic difficulties of the
region and an absolute decline in population.

In four centers —- Orono, Freeport, Clinton and
Mattawamkeag -- there was no decline in the number of
consumers from outlying regions, because these places had

trade areas which were limited primarily to the town.

83
There was, however, a significant decrease in the volume
of traffic passing through and the number of transients
stopping in these communities, particularly in Clinton
and Mattawamkeag where the impact was quite significant
(Table 11). Merchants in these two hamlets claimed that
most of the retail outlets were adversely affected. The
businessmen in Orono and Freeport could recall only a
minor decrease in transient trade in these two centers,
but both were bypassed in the early 1960's and many highway-
oriented establishments have changed ownership. Also
there has been a large increase in tourists in the Freeport
area and college students in Orono during the last ten
years, possibly obscuring what loss in transients which
may have occurred. Nevertheless if the loss had been sub—
stantial some of the merchants certainly would have been
able to recall the situation.

The remaining towns in this group -- Lincoln, Old
Town, NeWport, and Pittsfield -- had a decline in both
transients and outlying trade area consumers. Lincoln,
which has one of the largest trade areas among the study
centers, lost customers from at least four communities and
was noted previously in this chapter. People from Milli-
nocket and East Millinocket, although never shopping
extensively in Lincoln except for clothing, now bypass the
town in favor of Bangor, due to the inaccessibility of
Lincoln from 195. Also some residents in Mattawamkeag and

Howland patronize stores in Bangor at the expense of

8“

businesses in Lincoln since the opening of the Interstate.

Old Town had a smaller tributary region than Lincoln
and the decrease in customers from the surrounding commun-
ities was less significant, the major change coming from
people in Orono. The Interstate did, however, leave Old
Town five minutes from the nearest access point and gave the
consumers from the region north of the city but outside
its trade area, greater accessibility to Bangor. Hence,
many people who formerly stopped at Old Town, which provided
an intervening opportunity for shoppers going to Bangor,
now bypass the city.

The merchants of Pittsfield and Newport indicated
only a slight decrease, if any, in the number of consumers
from smaller outlying communities. In Pittsfield, however,
most proprietors claimed that there was no impact from the
Interstate at all, despite the considerable evidence, such
as vacant stores, information from local consumer inter-
views and a planning commission report, which was to the
contrary. Also a few residents in the hamlets of Etna
and Carmel Just east of NeWport stated that they were shop-
ping more frequently in Bangor at the expense of Newport.

The decline in the volume of traffic and transient
trade in all four of these centers was significant, but
differences existed in the type of transients lost (Table
11). In Old Town and Lincoln the merchants stated that
the greatest decrease came from Canadians who purchased a

variety of goods such as cigarettes, clothing, small

85
appliances, restaurant foods, motel rooms, and gasoline
before returning to the Provinces. Both towns were located
on an important route leading into Maritime Canada, but
with the completion of the Interstate to Houlton and an
improved segment of Canadian Highway between Fredricton,
New Brunswick and Houlton, much of the traffic which formerly
passed through Old Town and Lincoln now flows on I95 (Figures
4 and 5). Consequently fewer Canadians are stopping at these
two towns and are continuing on to Houlton before purchasing
merchandise.

The decrease in transients in Newport and Pittsfield
followed a pattern similar to that found in other research
efforts. NeWport is located at the junctions of Routes
Two, the major east—west highway in Northern New England;
Eleven, which runs north from Waterville, and I95 (Figure
5). The Interstate diverted considerable volumes of
traffic, particularly on Route Two around Newport, and
owners of highway-oriented businesses felt the impact. The
adverse effect, however, was only temporary because several
establishments were opened or expanded close to the local
interchange where they intercepted traffic on Route Two
before it enters I95, and where they capitalized on the
increased number of transients using the Interstate.

Pittsfield was located on a less heavily traveled
route than those passing through NeWport, but nevertheless
a significant decrease in transients did occur. This was

reflected by the -3fl.2 per cent change in gasoline sales

86

in Pittsfield and was also pointed out in a comprehensive

plan for the town which stated:

Most significant, however, is the change
that was brought about through the construction
of the Interstate from Augusta to Bangor. While
such a highway has certainly alleviated traffic
congestion on Main Street in Pittsfield, it has
also left a commercial void in servicing the
transient trade. For a downtown area that was
weak already, the elimination of this transient
trade has over the past few years brought the
weakness of the Pittsfield downtown area to the
foreground . . .7

Centers with an Increased Accessibility
to a Major Route

 

The second group of centers was comprised of those
places which were not previously on a major route but are
now closer to the Interstate than the former main highway.
The communities included Patten, Millinocket, East Milli—
nocket, and Sherman Mills. It was assumed that these
centers, due to their increased accessibility to I95,
would benefit from an increased number of transients and'
in the larger two towns also from additional outlying
trade area consumers.

There was an increase in transients in all four
communities, but only two places were significantly affected
(Table 12). Patten and Millinocket, which were isolated
from Route Two, still are a considerable distance from the

Interstate. The merchants in these towns, however, like

 

7Hans Klunder Associates, Inc., Comprehensive Plan for
the Town of Pittsfield, Maine (Hanover, New Hampshire, 1970).

 

 

87
Table 12
CHANGES IN VOLUME OF TRAFFIC AND TRANSIENT AND OUTLYING

TRADE AREA CONSUMER BUSINESS IN CENTERS WITH
INCREASED ACCESSIBILITY TO A MAJOR ROUTE

 

 

Change in Merchant's Merchant's View

 

Volume of View of of Change in
Center Traffic in Change in Outlying Trade
Per Cent Transient Area Consumer
Trade Business
Patten “.0 increase decrease
Millinocket 17.0 increase slight
increase
East Millinocket 14.5 slight none
decrease
Sherman Mills 10.7 increase none

 

those in Houlton and Island Falls, stated that I95 had
brought more tourists, particularly outdoor recreationists,
into the region. Patten is located on the southeastern
edge of a large wilderness area which includes Baxter State
Park and the Allagash Wilderness Waterway, while Millinocket
is the last center before entering this vast region from
the south (Figure 4). Consequently people travelling to
this recreation area for outdoor activities, such as
hunting, fishing, canoeing, hiking or camping, are funneled
through these two towns. These transients stopped in
Millinocket and Patten to purchase items like sporting
goods, hardware supplies, food, liquor, and incidental
clothing.

The increased number of recreationists in Millinocket

88
also passed through East Millinocket, but the latter center
did not benefit. In fact a proprietor of a highway—oriented
business selling gasoline claimed a slight decline in
transient trade due to the construction of two service
stations at the interchange east of the town. Sherman Mills
also gained transients who left the Interstate to go to the
recreation areas northwest of the hamlet and those who
stopped for gasoline. Only one business was affected, how-
ever, this being a new service station located at the inter-
change. The other merchants in Sherman Mills indicated no
change in transient trade.

Even though the Interstate brought more tourists into
the region, I95 did not stimulate a growth in the number of
outlying trade area consumers shopping in the larger centers
of Patten and Millinocket. The merchants in Millinocket
revealed an increase in people from East Millinocket, but
this was a result of the opening of a new shopping plaza
rather than the new highway. Some consumers from Sherman
Mills did increase their trips to Millinocket.

The store owners in Patten claimed no change in
customers from smaller surrounding communities. It was
revealed, however, through consumer interviews that residents
in Island Falls and Patten shopped more frequently in Houlton
at the expense of businesses in Patten. Possibly the differ-
ence in opinions stems from the fact the people who increased
their buying in Houlton continue to purchase many of their

goods in Patten.

89

Centers with Unaltered Accessibility
to a Major Route

 

Bath, Yarmouth, and Howland, whose accessibility to a
major route was unaltered by the Interstate did not lose or
gain significant numbers of transients or outlying trade
area consumers (Table 13). The greatest impact occurred in
Bath which was bypassed by people in communities east of
that city in order to purchase goods in the new shopping
plaza in Brunswick. The merchants in Bath, however, indi—
cated that these consumers would have patronized the shopping
plaza even without the highway development. There also
was a considerable increase in the volume of traffic passing
through Howland and a slight increase in transient trade
during the years when the Interstate ended at that community
and traffic was diverted through that hamlet to reach Route
Two. Transient trade declined, however, when I95 was exten-

ded to Medway.

Conclusions

 

It is apparent that there are significant differences
in the effect of highway improvement on the number of
transients and outlying trade area consumers shopping in
the study centers. The impact of I95 on transient trade
was not simply the result of a town's altered accessibility
to a major route, particularly in the region north of
Bangor. Patten, Millinocket, Island Falls, and Houlton
benefited from the traffic generated by the Interstate,

even though the first two places were still a considerable

90
Table 13
CHANGES IN VOLUME OF TRAFFIC AND TRANSIENT AND OUTLYING

TRADE AREA CONSUMER BUSINESS IN CENTERS WITH
UNALTERED ACCESSIBILITY TO A MAJOR ROUTE

 

 

 

Change in Merchant's View
Volume of Merchant's View of Change in

Center Traffic in of Change in Outlying Trade

Per Cent Transient Trade Area Consumer
Business

Bath 3.0 none slight decrease
Howland 28.0 increase none
Yarmouth —- none none

 

distance from I95, and the last two communities no longer
straddled a main highway. The centers, however, gained
sales from specialized groups of transients, the outdoor
recreationist and Canadians who purchased goods before
returning to the provinces. If the communities had been
located elsewhere the impact may have been quite different.

Lincoln and Old Town lost more transient trade than
anticipated due to the centers' role in providing goods for
Canadians stopping intentionally before continuing on to
Canada. In Freeport and Orono there was less of a decline
than expected. Only in the other nine centers did the
impact of the Interstate on transient trade approximate
what was contemplated.

There was even less regularity in the change in out-

lying trade area consumers. Centers such as Lincoln, Old

91

Town, Newport, Pittsfield and Island Falls, which were
bypassed, lost customers from smaller surrounding commun-
ities, but Orono and Freeport did not, and Houlton gained.
Millinocket which was closer to I95 than the former major
route did not obtain many outside customers as a result of
the Interstate and Patten experienced a decline. However
both centers were still a considerable distance from the
new highway. The merchants in the other places were
virtually unaffected by a change in the shopping patterns
of the people outside their own communities.

Despite some supporting evidence the following hypoth-
esis must be rejected as stated: Centers which straddled
a former major highway and are bypassed will lose transients
and in the larger places, also outlying trade area con-
sumers, while similar communities which were not on a main
route, but now are close to the Interstate will gain. An
alternative hypothesis which could be accepted is: Centers
which straddled a former major highway and are bypassed
will lose transients, while communities which were not on

a main route but now are close to the Interstate will gain.

CHAPTER IV

THE IMPACT OF I95 ON TOTAL RETAIL SALES AND STRUCTURE

The impact of I95 on local consumer purchasing
patterns, and the volume of transients and outlying trade
area customers shopping in the study centers was discussed
in the last chapter. The effect of the Interstate on the
retail sales and structure in the communities through the
loss or gain of business from local consumers, transients,
and outlying trade area customers, however, was only
inferred, and is the subject for analysis in this chapter.
The hypotheses to be tested are: (1) Highway improvement
has an adverse effect on the growth of retail sales in
Maine communities of less than 10,000 population, and (2)
Small centers will be affected more from changes in
transient trade due to highway improvement than will larger
places.

In order to determine the impact of I95 on retail
sales in the study centers, control communities were used
to compare trends in sales during a pre- and post-period
of highway development (Table 1A). Also for the towns
which received highway improvement early in the 1960's,
an analysis was made on the effect of the Interstate over

a longer period of time. The control units were selected

92

93
Table 1A

STUDY AND COMPARATIVE CONTROL CENTERS

 

 

 

Study Center Control Center
Houlton Caribou

Island Falls Milo
Sherman-Sherman Mills Bridgewater
Patten Milo
Millinocket Rumford

East Millinocket Madison
Mattawamkeag Winterport
Lincoln Dover Foxcroft
Howland Winterport

Old Town Skowhegan
Orono Gorham
NeWport Wiscasset
Pittsfield Livermore Falls
Clinton Winterport
Bath Gardiner
Freeport Lisbon Falls

Yarmouth Gorham

 

9A
on the basis of their similarity to the study center,
particularly in population size and distance from their
larger neighbor. It was postulated that with the exception
of the Interstate, both places had similar characteristics
and the influence of the new highway was the cause of the
change in retail sales.

A Method of Determining Sales Change
Attributed to Highway Improvement

 

 

The study and control centers were quantitatively
compared by the use of simple algebraic formulas. The
first equation measured the change in taxable retail sales
attributable to highway improvement. The differences in
sales between the three-year period before and after high-
way development in the study center, accounting for infla-
tion and regional sales trends, were compared with those in
the control community (Figure 10). It is stated as:

[(a—a1)-(c-cl)]-[(b-b1)-(d-d1)]

Sales Change Due to

Highway Improvement

Where:

a = percentage change in sales in the study center
after highway improvement.

a1: percentage change in sales in the study center
before highway improvement.

b = percentage change in sales in the control center
after highway improvement.

bl= percentage change in sales in the control center
before highway improvement.

 

 

95

 

 
  
  
  
 
  
     
 
   

NORTHERN BANGOR

 

TRADE AREA
0 ‘0‘ . s . ~ .
s. ‘. ‘
“m‘
.\°
‘0
‘0
\.
SOUTHERN BANGOR '\\.
3 TRADE AREA
\.
\O
\O
\O
\O
\O
‘0
wATERVILLE ‘.\
TRADE AREA .
x. .
‘0
‘0
‘0
LEWISTON ‘°
TRADE
AREA

 

 

     
  
  
 
  

 

; / N
‘, ‘4. IAAJAHE
7 AUGUSTA
~ 41' ‘. TRADE AREA ECONOM'C T
. l4 ‘ AREAS
_, Inmréct o;— ‘9 29—4—4” ‘ 50
Pam-d “3...
Local economic anal -
Spend, poaomod araas :3
J. mafia“ Trad. ataa beam“: —-—-
TwaaiIa-Intaruata 95 _-
PORTLAND Incarnate 95 Dada! construction -- --
TRADE AREA 0 of." m”
mm Bureau at Taaaflon
5“"“ Apm. I972

 

 

Figure 10

 

96

percentage change in sales in the study center
economic region after highway improvement.

- percentage change in sales in the study center

economic region before highway improvement.

percentage change in sales in the control center
economic region after highway improvement.

percentage change in sales in the control center
economic region after highway improvement.

The second formula is a variation of the first. It

was designed for centers on which no data were available

in the period before highway construction. It was also

used as a measure of the sales change due to the Interstate

and is stated as:

Sales Change Due to
Highway Improvement

Where:

a = same
b = same
0 = same
d = same

as

as

as

as

(a-C) - (b-d)

in formula one
in formula one
in formula one

in formula one

The third formula measures the relative change in sales

between the study and control centers after the initial

impact of I95.

It is stated as:

Relative Sales Change After the

Initial Impact of the Interstate = (X'Y) ' (XIYI)
Where:
x = percentage change in sales in the study center

after the three-year period following highway
improvement.

97

xl= percentage change in sales in the control center
after the three-year period following highway
improvement.

y = percentage change in the sales in the study center
economic region after the three-year period
following highway improvement.

yl= percentage change in the sales in the control

center economic region after the three-year
period following highway improvement.

Adequate published data could be obtained on total
taxable sales from the Maine Bureau of Taxationl, but not
on sales for various categories of goods or non-taxable
items such as food. Hence, additional information from
merchant and consumer interviews, and the Census of
Business2 was used to help interpret the impact of the

Interstate on total retail sales and to analyze the change

in retail structure.

Sales Change Attributed to I95

Table 15 shows that in all centers except Houlton,
Sherman Mills, and Orono there was a decrease in taxable
sales which was attributed to the Interstate. In three
cases, however, the calculated values of the change in
taxable sales due to highway improvement are not in agree-
ment with information from consumer and merchant interviews.

Orono which had a 9.0 per cent increase in sales attributable

 

1State of Maine, Sales and Use Tax,fand Taxable Sales
(Augusta, Maine: Monthly, l96l-present7 (mimeographed).

 

2U.S. Department of Commerce, Census of Business, I
and II, Part I (Washington, D.C.: 1958, 1963, 19677.

 

98

Table 15

SALES CHANGE ATTRIBUTED TO HIGHWAY IMPROVEMENT

 

 

Sales Change Attributed

 

Center to Highway Improvement
(Per Cent)
Orono 9.0
Houlton 5.0
Millinocket -0.5
Pittsfield -5.l
Lincoln -6.7
Yarmouth -7-9
Freeport -10.6
Old Town -ll.3
Bath -2l.7
Sherman Mills 28.3
Howland —l.6
Mattawamkeag —3.2
Patten -A.7
Island Falls -9.5
NeWport -9.8
East Millinocket -2l.5

Clinton

-35.5

 

99
to I95 also experienced an 8.2 per cent decrease in the
number of local consumers who purchased goods in their
own community (Table 16). An explanation for this dis—
crepancy lies in the fact that Orono is a university town,
and the expansion of businesses catering to the rapidly—
growing number of students, faculty and other related
personnel obscured the loss sustained by other retail
establishments.

Bath and East Millinocket have significant calculated
decreases in taxable sales due to highway development —-
21.7 and 21.5 per cent respectively (Tables 17 and 18).
Both centers, however, were affected by two simultaneous
developments -- the new highway and the opening of a
shopping plaza. Based on the consumer interviews, the
shopping plaza appeared to be far more significant in
explaining the loss in Bath and East Millinocket than the
Interstate.

The changes in taxable sales attributed to the high—
way improvement in the other centers coincided more closely
with the information provided by merchants and consumers
(Tables 19 - 32). It should be pointed out, however, that
in Pittsfield, Old Town and Mattawamkeag a substantial
decline occurred in food sales, a non—taxable item. If
these losses had been included, there would have been a
greater decrease in sales in these three centers than
calculated.

The data in Table 33 give some indication as to the

lOO
Tab 1e 16

TAXABLE SALES CHANGE IN ORONO AND GORHAM, AND
THEIR ECONOMIC REGIONS

 

 

Orono Bangor Gorham Portland
Year Per Cent Economic Region Per Cent Economic Region
Change Per Cent Change Change Per Cent Change

 

*i1962-

6H 26.7 6.2 21.8 10.3
***1965_

67 35.2 25.2 39.7 25.5

 

**The accumulative sales change, accounting for inflation,
in the three year period after highway improvement.

***The change in sales after the initial impact of the
Interstate.

Source: Maine Bureau of Taxation

Sales Change Attributed to Highway =
[(26.7)-(6.2)l-[(21.8)-(10.3)] = [(20.5)-(11.5)] = 9.0

Sales Change Relative to Control Center After Initial
Impact of Highway =
[(35-2)-(25.2)]-[(39.7)-(25.5)] = [(l0.0)-(l“.2)] = -“-2

TAXABLE SALES CHAN
THEIR

101
Table 17

GE IN BATH AND GARDINER, AND
ECONOMIC REGIONS

 

 

Bath Brunswick Gardiner Augusta
Year Per Cent Economic Region Per Cent Economic Region

Change Per Ce

nt Change Change Per Cent Change

 

1964 —4.5
1965 10.8
1966 3.4
1967 -6.2
1968 -6.8
1969 1.2

*196h-
66 9.7

*fi1967_
69 -11.8

0.5 4.4 5.9
10.0 .6 8.5
10.3 12.8 8.1

6.4 4.3 4.1
11.4 -1.7 10.5
10.4 1.3 2.5
20.8 17.8 22.8
28.2 3.9 16.1

 

*The accumulative sales
in the three year period

**The accumulative sales
in the three year period

Source: Maine Bureau of
Sales Change Attributed
[(—11.8)-(9.7)]-[(28.2
[(16.l)-(22.8)] = [(-2
[(-28.9)-(-7.2)] = -21

change, accounting for inflation,
before highway improvement.

change, accounting for inflation,
after highway improvement.

Taxation

to Highway =
)-(20.8)]-[(3.9)-(l7.8)] -
l-5)-(7-4)]-[(-13.8)-(—6.7)] =
.7

102
Table 18

TAXABLE SALES CHANGE IN EAST MILLINOCKET AND
MADISON, AND THEIR ECONOMIC REGIONS

 

 

East Mil-
linocket Millinocket Madison Skowhegan
Year Per Cent Economic Region Per Cent Economic Region
Change Per Cent Change Change Per Cent Change

 

*1964-

66 33.1 29.5 3.3 10.0
**1967_

69. -8.3 11.0 0.0 8.1

 

*The accumulative sales change, accounting for inflation,
in the three year period before highway improvement.

**The accumulative sales change, accounting for inflation,
in the three year period after highway improvement.

Source: Maine Bureau of Taxation

Sales Change

Attributed to

Highway = [(-8.3)-(33.l)]-[(11.0)—(29.5)]—[(0.o)—(3.3)]-
[(8.l)—(10.0)] =

[(-41.4)—(-18.5)]-[(-3.3)-(—1.9)] = [(-22.9)-<-1.u);l=5

103
Table 19

TAXABLE SALES CHANGE IN HOULTON AND CARIBOU,
AND THEIR ECONOMIC REGIONS

 

 

Houlton Houlton Caribou Caribou
Year Per Cent Economic Region Per Cent Economic Region
Change Per Cent Change Change Per Cent Change

 

1965 17.4 19 3 18.9 18.0
1966 - 0.3 1 6 1.0 0.0
1967 - 7.2 - 6 4 — 7.3 - 7.9
1968 - 0.5 - 0 5 4.2 0.9

1969-
70 , - 4 1 - 4.6 - 3.9 — 4.2

*1965—
67 9.9 13.7 12.6 10.1

**1968_
70 - 2.3 - 4.3 - 5.2 — 8.2

 

*The accumulative sales change, accounting for inflation,
in the three year period before highway improvement.

**The accumulative sales change, accounting for inflation,
in the three year period after highway improvement.

Source: Maine Bureau of Taxation

Sales Change Attributed to Highway =
[(-2.3)-(9-9)]-[(-4-3)-(13.7)]-[(-5-2)-(l2.6)]-[(-8.2)-(10.1N
= [(-12.2)-(-18.o)1-[(—17.8)—(-18.3)]=[(5.8)—(0.5)l = 5.3

104
Table 20

TAXABLE SALES CHANGE IN ISLAND FALLS AND MILO,
AND THEIR ECONOMIC REGIONS

 

 

Island

Falls Houlton Milo Dover Foxcroft
Year Per Cent Economic Region Per Cent Economic Region

Change Per Cent Change Change Per Cent Change

 

R1965-

67 1.0 13.7 -7.6 10.0
**1968_

70 —15.7 -4.3 6.7 13.5

 

*The accumulative sales change, accounting for inflation,
in the three year period before highway improvement.

**The accumulative sales change, accounting for inflation, in
the three year period after highway improvement.

Source: Maine Bureau of Taxation
Sales Change Attributed to Highway =

[(-15.7)—(1.0)]-[(-4.3)-(13.7)]-[(6.6)-(-7.7)]-[(13.5)-
(10.0)] =

[(-l6.7)-(-18.0)]-[(14.3)—(3.5)]=[(1.3)-(10.8)] = -9.5

105
Table 21

TAXABLE SALES CHANGE IN PATTEN AND MILO,
AND THEIR ECONOMIC REGIONS

 

 

Patten Houlton Milo Dover Foxcroft
Year Per Cent Economic Region Per Cent Economic Region
Change Per Cent Change Change Per Cent Change

 

*1965.

67 10.3 13.7 —7.6 10.0
*fi1968_

70 -1.6 -4.3 6.7 13.5

 

*The accumulative sales change, accounting for inflation,
in the three year period before highway improvement.

**The accumulative sales change, accounting for inflation,
in the three year period after highway improvement.

Source: Maine Bureau of Taxation
Sales Change Attributed to Highway =

[(-l.6)-(10.3)]-[(-4.3)-(13-7)]-[(6.6)-(-7-7)]-[(13-5)-
(10.0)] =

I(-11.9)—(-18.0)]-[(14.3)-(3.5)]=[(6.1)-(10.8)] = —4.7

106
Table 22

TAXABLE SALES CHANGE IN SHERMAN MILLS AND BRIDGEWATER,
AND THEIR ECONOMIC REGIONS

 

 

Houlton
Year Sherman Mills Bridgewater Economic Region
Per Cent Change Per Cent Change Per Cent Change

 

*1965—67 11.4 13.1 13.7
**1968-70 3.6 —23.0 -4.3

 

*The accumulative sales change, accounting for inflation,
in the three year period before highway improvement.

**The accumulative sales change, accounting for inflation,
in the three year period after highway improvement.

Source: Maine Bureau of Taxation

Sales Change Attributed to Highway =

[(3.6)-(ll.4)]-[(-4.3)-(l3-7)]-[(-23.0)-(13.l)]-[(-4-3)-
(13.7)]=

[(-7.8)-(-l8.0)]—[(-36.l)-(-l8.0)]=[(10.2)-(—l8.l)] = 28.3

107

Table 23

TAXABLE SALES CHANGE IN MILLINOCKET AND RUMFORD,

AND THEIR ECONOMIC REGIONS

 

 

 

Milli-
nocket Millinocket Rumford Rumford
Year Per Cent Economic Region Per Cent Economic Region
Change Per Cent Change Change Per Cent Change
1964 9 1 10.3 -3.5 1.1
1965 16.0 16.2 7.3 5.3
1966 2.9 3.0 3.8 6.2
1967 1.7 1.1 1.4 6.4
1968 8.2 11.1 12.1 4.6
1969 -0.5 —1.2 -6.1 1.0
*1964-
66 28.0 29.5 7 6 12.6
*fi1967_
69 9.4 11.0 7.4 12.0

 

*The accumulative sales
in the three year period

Source:

Maine Bureau of

**The accumulative sales
in the three year period

[(—l8.6)—(-18.5)]-[(—0.2)-(-0.6)]=[(—0.1)-(O.4)] =

change, accounting for inflation,
before highway improvement.

change, accounting for inflation,
after highway improvement.

Taxation

Sales Change Attributed to Highway =

[(9.4)-(28.0)]-[(11.0)-(29-5)]-[(7.4)-(7.6)]-[(l2.0)-

(12.5)] =
—o.5

108
Table 24

TAXABLE SALES CHANGE IN MATTAWAMKEAG AND
WINTERPORT, AND THEIR ECONOMIC REGIONS

 

 

Matta- Winter-
wamkeag Lincoln port Belfast
Year Per Cent Economic Region Per Cent Economic Region
Change Per Cent Change Change Per Cent Change

 

*1964-
66 7.9 20.5 0.1 23.2

**1967_
69 -3.4 2.1 3.7 16.5

 

*The accumulative sales change, accounting for inflation,
in the three year period before highway improvement.

**The accumulative sales change, accounting for inflation,
in the three year period after highway improvement.

Source: Maine Bureau of Taxation

Sales Change Attributed to Highway =

[(—3.4)-(7.9)]-[(2.1)-(2o.5)]-[(3.7)-(0.1)]-[(16.5)-
(23.2)] =

[(—11.3)-(-18.4)]-[(3.6)-(-6.7)]=[(7.1)—(10.3)]= -3.2

109
Table 25

TAXABLE SALES CHANGE IN LINCOLN AND DOVER
FOXCROFT, AND THEIR ECONOMIC REGIONS

Dover
Lincoln Lincoln Foxcroft Dover Foxcroft
Year Per Cent Economic Region Per Cent Economic Region
Change Per Cent Change Change Per Cent Change

 

1963 -7.9 —3.6 —2.0 0.0
1964 16.7 8.5 5.8 4.9
1965 7.2 9.2 4.3 5.1
1966 -7.8 2.8 8.5 6.5
1967 5.0 -1.8 2.2 2.6
1968 -1.4 -4.8 5.3 4.4
1969 6.3 8.7 1.1 -2.3
1970 -4.9 -6.3 0.1 11.9

£1963-
65 16.0 14 1 8.1 10 0

*fi1966_
68 —u.2 -3 8 16.0 13 5

***1969-
70 1.4 2.4 2.2 -0.4

 

*The accumulative sales change, accounting for inflation,
in the three year period before highway improvement.

**The accumulative sales change, accounting for inflation,
in the three year period after highway improvement.

***The change in sales after the initial impact of the
Interstate.

Source: Maine Bureau of Taxation

Sales Change Attributed to Highway =

[(—4.2)-(16.o)]-[(—3.8)-(14.1)]-[(l6.o)-(8.1)]-[(l3.5)-
(10.0)] =

[(-20.2)-(-l7.9)]-[(7.9)-(3-5)]=[(-2.3)-(4.4)]= -6.7

Sales Change Relative to Control Center After Initial
Impact of Highway =

[(l.4)—(2.4)]-[(2.2)-(—0.4)]=[(-l.0)-(2.6)] = -3.6

110
Table 26

TAXABLE SALES CHANGE IN HOWLAND AND WINTERPORT,
AND THEIR ECONOMIC REGIONS

 

 

Winter-
Howland Lincoln port A Belfast
Year Per Cent Economic Region Per Cent Economic Region
Change Per Cent Change Change Per Cent Change

 

*1963_
65 16.9 14.1 0.5 13.4

*R1956_
68 -8.8 —3.8 3.9 23.0

 

*The accumulative sales change, accounting for inflation,
in the three year period before highway improvement.

**The accumulative sales change, accounting for inflation,
in the three year period after highway improvement.

Source: Maine Bureau of Taxation
Sales Change Attributed to Highway =

[(-8.8)-(16.9)]-[(-3.8)-(14.1)1-[(3.9)-(0.5)]-[(23.0)-
(13.4)] =

[(-25.7)-(-17.9)]-[(3.4)-(9.6)]=[(-7.8)—(-6.2)] = -1-6

111
Table 27

TAXABLE SALES CHANGE IN OLD TOWN AND SKOWHEGAN,
AND THEIR ECONOMIC REGIONS

 

 

Old Town Bangor Skowhegan Skowhegan
Year Per Cent Economic Region Per Cent Economic Region
Change Per Cent Change Change Per Cent Change

 

1962 -3.9 1.8 -6.1 - .4
1963 - .3 -1.5 12.9 6.0
1964 5.4 5.9 6.4 5.0
1965 -3.6 9.8 5.1 2.6
1966 - .6 6.5 0.0 2.4
1967 -6.9 6.0 3.6 3.2
1968 -2.1 2.6 8.4 3.9
1969 -3.8 1.2 -2.8 -1.9
1970 17.9 9.9 4.3 5.5
*fi1962_
64 1.1 6.2 13.2 10.6
*1963.
65 1.4 14.2 24.4 13.6
*i1966_
68 -9.6 15 12.0 9.5
***1969-
70 14.1 11.1 1.5 3.6

 

*The accumulative sales change, accounting for inflation,
in the three year period before highway improvement.

**The accumulative sales change, accounting for inflation,
in the three year period after highway improvement.

***The change in sales after the initial impact of the
Interstate.

Source: Maine Bureau of Taxation

Sales Change Attributed to Highway (1) =
[(l.l)-(6.2)]-[(13.2)-(10.6)]=[(-5-1)-(2-6)] = -7-7
Sales Change Attributed to Highway (2)

[(-9.6)-(1.4)]-[(15.1)-(14.2)]-[(l2.o)-(24.4)]Z£§965i-
[(-11.0)-(0-9)]-[(-l2.4)-(-4.1)]=[(-ll.9)-(-8.3)] = -3.6

Sales Change Relative to Control Center After Initial
Impact of Highway =

[(l4-l)-(ll.l)]-[(l-5)-(3.6)]=[(3.0)-(-2.l)] = 5.1

112
Table 28

TAXABLE SALES CHANGE IN NEWPORT AND WISCASSET,
AND THEIR ECONOMIC REGIONS

 

 

Newport Dexter Wiscasset Waldoboro
Year Per Cent Economic Region Per Cent Economic Region
Change Per Cent Change Change Per Cent Change

 

*1961-
63 8.4 12.5 13.1 8.1

**1964-
66 -1.7 14.8 16.3 14.7

***1967-
70 14.6 16.4 15.7 22.8

 

*The accumulative sales change, accounting for inflation,
in the three year period before highway improvement.

**The accumulative sales change, accounting for inflation,
in the three year period after highway improvement.

***The change in sales after the initial impact of the
Interstate.

Source: Maine Bureau of Taxation

Sales Change Attributed to Highway =
[(-1-7)-(8.4)]-[(14.8)-(12.5)]-[(16.3)-(13.1)l-
[(14.7)-(8.9)]=[(lO.l)-(2.3)]-[(3.2)—(5.8)] =
[(-12.4)-(—2.6)] = -9.8

Sales Change Relative to Control Center After Initial
Impact of Highway =

[(14.6)-(l6-4)]-[(15.7)-(27.8)]=[(-1.8)-(-7-l)]= 5.3

 

 

“: ' " .-.“‘.".'l\

 

 

113
Table 29

TAXABLE SALES CHANGE IN PITTSFIELD AND LIVERMORE
FALLS, AND THEIR ECONOMIC REGIONS

 

 

Pitts- Livermore
field Skowhegan Falls Farmington
Year Per Cent Economic Region Per Cent Economic Region
Change Per Cent Change Change Per Cent Change

 

*1962-
64 16.2 10.6 11.2 15.2

**1965-
67 5.0 8.2 17.3 25.0

***1968-
70 6.5 7.7 5.9 8.6

 

*The accumulative sales change, accounting for inflation,
in the three year period before highway improvement.

**The accumulative sales change, accounting for inflation,
in the three year period after highway improvement.

***The change in sales after the initial impact of the
Interstate.

Source: Maine Bureau of Taxation.

Sales Change Attributed to Highway =
I(5.0)-(16.2n-[(8.2)-(10.6)]-[(17.3)-(16.2)] -
[(25.0)-(15-2)]=[(-ll.2)-(-2.4)]-[(6.l)-(9o8)]=
[(-8.8)—(—3.7)] = -5.1

Sales Change Relative to Control Center After Initial Impact
of Highway =

[(5.5)-(7.7)]-[(5-9)-(8.6)]=[(-l.2)—(-2-7)]= 1.5

114
Table 30

TAXABLE SALES CHANGE IN CLINTON AND WINTERPORT,
AND THEIR ECONOMIC REGIONS

 

 

Winter—
Clinton Waterville port Belfast
Year Per Cent Economic Region Per Cent Economic Region
Change Per Cent Change Change Per Cent Change

 

*1962-
64 24.3 11.1 -4.4 5.9

*fi1965_
67 —14.2 15.4 8.4 26.3

***1968_
70 32.1 10.4 0.8 13.6

 

*The accumulative sales change, accounting for inflation,
in the three year period before highway improvement.

**The accumulative sales change, accounting for inflation,
in the three year period after highway improvement.

***The change in sales after the initial impact of the
Interstate.

Source: Maine Bureau of Taxation

Sales Change Attributed to Highway =
[(-14.2)—(24.3)]-[(15.4)-(11.1)]-[(8.4)—(—4.4)] -
[(26.3)—(5.9)]=[(+38.5)-(4.3)]-[(12.8)-(2o.4)] =
[(-42.8)-(—7.6)] = -35.2

Sales Change Relative to Control Center After Initial
Impact of Highway =

[(32,1)-(10.4)]-[(0.8)-(13.6)]=[(21.7)-(-12.8)] = 34.5

115
Table 31

TAXABLE SALES CHANGE IN YARMOUTH AND LISBON FALLS,
AND THEIR ECONOMIC REGIONS

 

 

Lisbon
Yarmouth Portland Falls Lewiston
Year Per Cent Economic Region Per Cent Economic Region
Change Per Cent Change Change Per Cent Change

 

*i1962_

64 4.8 10.3 5.4 3.0
***1965_

70 r 66.5 25.5 52.2 33.4

 

**The accumulative sales change, accounting for inflation,
in the three year period after highway improvement.

***The change in sales after the initial impact of the
Interstate.

Source: Maine Bureau of Taxation
Sales Change Attributed to Highway =
[(4.8)-(10.3)]-[(5.4)-(3.0)]=[{—5.5)-(2.4)] = -7.9

Sales Change Relative to Control Center After Initial Impact
of Highway =

[(66.5)-(25-5)]-[(52.2)-(33.4)]=[(41.0)-(18-8)] = 22.2

116
Table 32

TAXABLE SALES CHANGE IN FREEPORT AND LISBON FALLS,
AND THEIR ECONOMIC REGIONS

 

 

Lisbon
Freeport Portland Falls Lewiston
Year Per Cent Economic Region Per Cent Economic Region
Change Per Cent Change Change Per Cent Change

 

**l962-

64 2.1 10.3 5.4 3.0.
***1965_

70 49.7 25.5 52.2 33.4

 

**The accumulative sales change, accounting for inflation,
in the three year period after highway improvement.

***The change in sales after the initial impact of the
Interstate.

Source: Maine Bureau of Taxation
Sales Change Attributed to Highway =
[(2.1)-(Io.3)]-[(5.4)-(3.0)]=[(-8.2)—(2.4)] = -10 6

Sales Change Relative to Control Center After Initial
Impact of Highway =

[(49.7)-(25-5)]-[(52.2)-(33.4)]=[(24.2)-(l8.8)] = 5.4

117

Table 33

SALES CHANGE ATTRIBUTED TO LOCAL CONSUMERS, TRANSIENTS,

AND OUTLYING TRADE AREA CUSTOMERS

 

 

Sales Change
Attributed to

Sales Change
Attributed to
Altered Local

Sales Change
Attributed to
Transients and

 

 

 

Larger Highway Consumer Outlying Trade
Centers Improvement Purchasing Area Consumers
(Per Cent) Patterns (Per Cent)
(Per Cent)

Orono 9.0 -8.2 17.2
Houlton 5.0 —0.4 5.7
Millinocket -0.5 -7.3 6.8
Pittsfield -5.1 —9.0 3.9
Lincoln —6.7 -4.8 —1.9
Yarmouth -7.9 -7.6 -0.3
Freeport —10.6 -8.4 -2.2
Old Town -11.3 -10.0 -1.3
Bath -2l.7 —19.6 -2.1
Smaller

Centers

Sherman Mills 28.3 -0.9 29.2
Howland —1.6 -0.0 -1.6
Mattawamkeag -3.2 -0.8 -2.6
Patten -4.7 -2.5 —2.2
Island Falls -9.5 -4.2 -5.3
NeWport -9.8 —2.9 -6.9
East Millinocket -21.5 -4.7 -16.8
Clinton -35.5 -0.2 -33.2

 

118
source of the loss or gain in sales in each center. It was
assumed if the percentage change in local consumer pur-
chasing patterns is subtracted from the percentage change in
sales, the residual would be the contribution to the increase
or decrease in sales from transients, outlying trade area
customers, or local people who increased their trips to a
larger neighbor, but continue to buy most goods in their
own community. The Table shows that with the exception of
Houlton, Patten, and Orono the greatest impact on retail
sales in larger centers came from altered purchasing patterns
by local soncumers, and in the smaller places from other
sources of customers, particularly transients.

Orono and Patten actually did not deviate from the
above generalization, but East Millinocket did. Orono, as
was pointed out previously in the chapter, can attribute
its growth in sales to a non-highway element -— the local
university -- and the major impact due to the Interstate
was from a shift in local consumer purchasing patterns.

In Patten the increase in transient trade concealed the

fact the loss in sales in that center stemmed primarily
from a decline in outlying area customers and not local
consumers. In East Millinocket, most of the decrease in
sales was the result of a new shOpping plaza in Millinocket,
the rest coming from people who altered their purchasing
patterns because of I95. The loss of transient trade was
minor in East Millinocket.

For communities which received highway improvement in

119
the early 1960's, including Orono, Lincoln, Old Town,
Newport, Pittsfield, Clinton, Yarmouth and Freeport, an
analysis of sales changes was made over a longer period of
time (Tables 16, 25, 27—32). In all cases except Orono,
there was a decline in thqurowth rate of sales in the
three-year period following the construction of the Inter-
state. After the initial impact, however, there was a gain
in sales greater than experienced in the control center,
except in Orono and Lincoln (Table 34). This resulted
from commercial adjustments such as replacing businesses
which had ceased operations with other retail outlets, and
the addition of transient-oriented enterprises.

Clinton and Yarmouth, which are close to expanding
cities made the greatest recovery and reflect the signifi-
cances of the dispersion of population on retail sales in
small centers. The population growth in Clinton and Yar-
mouth between 1960 and 1970 was 19.3 and 37.7 per cent,
respectively. Freeport also benefited from the subur-
banization process and NeWport from the expansion of high—
way-oriented businesses. Old Town has finally begun to
recover some of its sale loss through the construction of
a shopping center. Lincoln, however, appears to be still
experiencing the impact of the Interstate.

How well the remaining places adjust to the initial
effect of highway improvement, only time will tell. There
was some evidence that Bath was regaining sales lost to the

new shopping plaza and as a result of the route development

1201
Table 34

RELATIVE SALES CHANGE IN THE STUDY CENTERS AFTER THE
INITIAL IMPACT OF HIGHWAY IMPROVEMENT

 

 

Sales Change After

 

Center Initial Impact of

Highway

(Per Cent)
Lincoln -3.6 (2 years)
Old Town 5.1 (2 years)
Orono -4.2 (3 years)
NeWport 5.3 (3 years)
Pittsfield 1.5 (3 years)
Clinton 34.5 (3 years)
Freeport 5.4 (5 Years)

Yarmouth 22.2 (5 Years)

 

121
through the opening of small specialized shops. Small
places such as Island Falls, East Millinocket, Mattawamkeag,
and Howland are less likely to expand their commercial
development due to the limited market potential, and will

continue to fade away as trade centers.

The Impact of 195 on Retail Structure

 

The impact of I95 on retail structure (sales mix) in
the study centers was more difficult to analyze quantita-
tively due to the lack of sales data for individual busi-
nesses. Information from merchants and consumers, however,
did provide the basis for some general conclusions.

The Interstate led to a decline in sales for numerous
retail stores, but did not cause the closure of many estab-
lishments in the study centers. The types of businesses
which did close were primarily those that depended heavily
upon transient trade, particularly gasoline stations which
ceased operations due to being bypassed. In some towns
such as Orono, Freeport, Old Town, Pittsfield, Bath and
Yarmouth, which were near larger cities there was also a
loss of a few businesses carrying food, furniture, clothing,
hardware items, or general merchandise. The merchants
claimed that at least in part, the closing of these stores
resulted from the altered local consumer purchasing patterns.
People from these towns took advantage of the improved
accessibility to the larger more complex trade centers

provided by the Interstate.

122

Most stores which did lose sales, however, continued
operations. Some merchants settled for a smaller margin of
profit, while others adjusted their lines of merchandise,
promotional techniques or store hours in order to maintain
a viable business. A number of retail outlets also changed
ownership, but what role the impact of the highway had is
unknown to the writer. The greatest number and variety of
stores losing sales were in those centers which were close
to a larger neighbor. The types of goods frequently men-
tioned as declining in sales were food, apparel, general
merchandise, and gasoline. In the other communities the
highway—oriented establishments formed the group most
affected, although in Lincoln, Island Falls, and Millinocket,
proprietors of clothing stores and general merchandise
outlets claimed a decrease in the growth rate of sales.

Another aspect of the changes in retail structure was
the addition of new businesses. In several centers new
transient-oriented establishments, particularly service
stations, were opened at the local interchanges, and in Old
Town, Pittsfield, Orono, Bath, and Yarmouth, specialty shops
moved into vacancies left by stores which had ceased
operations. Also there was the development of shopping
plazas in Orono, Old Town and Houlton, and even though the
Interstate did not directly lead to their construction, it
did influence their location. All three plazas are close

to I95.

123

The Regional Nodes

 

Throughout the discussion of the impact of the Inter-
state on retail sales and structure it was noted that there
was a shift in local consumer purchasing patterns to a
regional node. Houlton was the only town in the study group
to benefit from the altered shopping patterns of people in
the smaller communities, but it was, however, the only
regional trade center included. Bangor was also frequently
mentioned as a focal point in which consumers from the
outlying areas were buying more goods after the opening of
I95, and deserves further comment.

Bangor has the base population to provide a greater
variety of goods than the smaller towns. It also can
develop large shopping plazas strategically located at
points along the Interstate and thus create an additional
attraction to people in the outlying areas. These factors
along with improved accessibility to Bangor with the intro-
duction of 195 have strengthened Bangor's commercial
dominance in northern and eastern Maine. D'Errico3 stated
in October, 1963:

Bangor is the trading center for an area which
encompasses six counties of northern and eastern Maine.

In recent years, the city has been losing ground to

surrounding communities where businesses have grown

to service their own areas. The sections of the

Interstate already completed have helped recapture

much of the business that was lost. The Bangor shop-
ping center, a direct result of the new highway, has

 

3Peter R. D'Errico, The Interstate: Its Impact on
Industrial Development in Bangor (A paper given at the
Fourteenth Annual Highway Conference at the University of
Maine, Orono, October 11, 1963), p. 1.

 

 

124

brought back to Bangor many people who were trading
in their own towns . . .

Not only did Bangor recapture some of the trade from
the surrounding communities, but also the city gained
business from people in more distant centers as the Inter—
state connected these towns to the regional node. Table 35
suggests the results of the extension of 195 from Bangor.
The three months when there is usually a disproportionate
number of consumers coming to Bangor from the distant out—
lying areas for multipurpose shopping accounted for a
higher percentage of the yearly increase in sales after
the completion of the highway. The only exception to this
was in June, 1963, when a new shOpping plaza was Opened in
Bangor. The months of September and December of that year
showed a decline in sales from the previous year. This
rise in sales in these months indicates that more people
from smaller centers were shopping in Bangor.

The other regional nodes in Maine, including Portland,
Waterville, and Augusta also undoubtedly benefited from the
Interstate extending and strengthening these cities' trade
area. There has been considerable development of shopping
plazas in each city which are readily accessible to people
using the new highway. Bangor, however, probably gained
more from the opening of 195 because the freeway taps a
much larger section of Bangor's trade area than it does

for the other nodes (Figure 10).

125
Table 35

RETAIL SALES IN BANGOR

 

 

 

 

% of the
June September December Year Year's Increase
Year ($000) ($000) ($000) ($000) Accounted for by
the 3 Months
1961 6,367 5,920 8,143 69,597
1962 6,377 6,120 7,643 71,623 -14.3
1963 7,593 6,023 7,500 72,932 74-8
1964 7,042 6,608 *7,886 78,656 7.3
1965 7,683 7,030 10,374 84,911 56.8
1966 7,910 8,866 11,075 91,257 39.8
1967 10,298 9,771 14,043 100,634 66.8
Source: Maine Bureau of Taxation

*The Interstate was completed in section north of
Old Town and west of Bangor between November 1964 and
November 1967.

126

Conclusions

 

The effect of 195 on retail sales in selected Maine
communities varied considerably, with most centers
experiencing a negative impact. The decline in sales in
the larger towns came primarily from the altered local
consumer purchasing patterns, while in the smaller places
the decrease stemmed from the loss of transient trade.

The decline in the growth rate of sales, however, appeared
to be only temporary, as was indicated in many centers
which received highway improvement in the early 1960's.

The greatest change in retail structure occurred in
the larger centers near a regional node, and although few
stores ceased operations, as a result of the Interstate,
except for highway—oriented businesses, many had a decrease
in sales. The types of merchandise most frequently men—
tioned which declined were food, apparel, general merchan-
dise and gasoline. A further alteration of the retail
structure took place with the opening of specialty shops
in vacant store sites, and the addition of transient—
oriented establishments and shopping plazas near 195.

It was also apparent that regional nodes benefited from
highway improvement. Even though only one such center,
Houlton, was included in the research for detailed analysis,
there was evidence that Bangor, Waterville, and Portland
gained much of the business lost by the small communities.

The data on taxable sales do_generally support the

following hypotheses: (1) Highway improvement has an

127
adverse effect on the growth of total retail sales in Maine
communities of less than 10,000 population, and (2) Small
centers will be affected more from changes in transient

trade due to highway improvement than will larger places.

CHAPTER V

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

Man has had a profound dynamic impact on the
characteristics of his landscape. One of the major reasons
for man's ability to alter the world in which he lives is
his increased mobility. He has been able to transport his
raw materials, finished goods, ideas and himself more
rapidly and cheaply. There are numerous reasons for man's
improved mobility. His advancing technology has increased
his expendable income and leisure time, has provided more
efficient means of transportation and communication, and
has changed his attitudes towards his way of living. Al-
though it is very difficult to separate the influences of
these factors in altering the landscape, the role of
transportation innovations is recognized as certainly
being significant.

The purpose of this research was to show one aspect
of transportation innovation, highway development, and its
impact on consumer purchasing patterns and the resulting
changes in retail sales and structure in small Maine
communities. Seven hypotheses were stated and tested as
follows:

1. Highway improvement has an adverse effect
on the growth of retail sales in small to medium-sized

128

129
Maine communities.

2. Consumers in small centers close to a bigger
neighbor will not significantly shift their primary
purchasing to a larger place.

3. Consumers in medium-sized centers close to a
bigger neighbor will substantially shift their pur-
chasing to a larger place.

4. Consumers in centers more than 30 minutes from
a bigger neighbor will moderately shift their primary
purchasing to a larger place.

5. Consumers will shift their primary purchasing
for higher order more than for lower order goods.

6. Centers which straddled the former main high-
way and are bypassed will lose sales from transients
and in larger places, also outlying trade area con—
sumers, while similar communities which were not on

a main route but now are close to the Interstate will
gain.

7. Small centers will be affected more from
changes in transient trade due to highway improvement
than will larger places.

The study of the impact of I95 on Maine communities
involved many problems including (1) delineating the areaof
highway influence; (2) determining the contribution of the
Interstate to change; (3) measuring of the amount and direc-
tion of the effects of 195 over time, and (4) obtaining
information on changes in consumer purchasing pattern and
statistical data on retail sales in the study and control
centers. Solutions to these problems were found by choosing
small centers so that the impact of the Interstate was felt
throughout the entire community; employing the interview
method with consumers and merchants, and also the comparative

control method to determine the contribution of 195 to change;

130
and utilizing percentage rather than absolute sales change
as a measurement of the amount and direction of the effects
of the Interstate over time. The problem of the lack of
published data on consumer purchasing patterns and retail
sales was overcome by obtaining additional information from
merchants and consumers, and unpublished sales statistics
from the Maine Bureau of Taxation.

The conclusions from the analysis of the impact of 195
on Maine communities supported all of the stated hypothesis
except numbers five and six. Local consumers did take
advantage of the increased accessibility to a larger center,
not only to buy high order goods but some low order as well.
Most common were department store items, apparel, hardware
and building supplies, and food, but all merchandise was
being purchased more frequently in the larger market centers.
The shift in the primary purchasing patterns was somewhat
different for each community, but some regularity existed
when centers were grouped by population size and distance
from a larger neighbor.

Consumers in hamlets close to a bigger neighbor did not
significantly shift their local primary purchasing patterns,
because they were already buying most of their goods in a
larger place. Some individuals did change their choice of
the outside center in which to do their shopping, especially
for apparel and department store items. A regional node
became the new focal point.

People in medium-sized centers within a shOrt distance

131
of a bigger neighbor substantially altered their local
primary purchasing patterns for most types of goods except
gasoline, furniture and drugstore items. There was, however,
a considerable variation in the percentage change within
each category of merchandise, reflecting a complexity of
factors besides highway improvement. The interviewees in
these communities did not change their preference of an
outside center, because they were already patronizing a
regional node.

Consumers in places more than 30 minutes from a
bigger neighbor only moderately shifted their local primary
purchasing patterns. The goods for which these individuals
altered their shopping habits varied considerably, again
indicating the significance of the diversity in the character
of each place. The greatest change was for department store
items, apparel and restaurants. In the communities where
the interviewees were not buying extensively in a regional
node, the residents chose a different outside center in
which to do some of their shopping. The shift was from a
smaller outlying center to the regional node.

Many consumers in the Maine study centers appeared
willing to increase their purchasing of most goods in larger
centers up to 25-35 minutes from their residence. Beyond
this time-distance range people increased their buying of
only a few selected high order goods in a distant larger
place.

The effect of the Interstate on the numbers of

132
transients and outlying trade area customers shopping in the
study centers was more varied than the changes in local
consumer purchasing patterns. The impact of 195 on transient
trade was not simply the result of a town's altered accessi-
bility to a major route, particularly in the region north
of Bangor. Patten, Millinocket, Island Falls, and Houlton
benefited from the traffic generated by the Interstate, even
though the first two places were still a considerable distance
from I95, and the last two communities no longer straddled
a main highway. The centers, however, gained sales from
specialized groups of transients, the outdoor recreationist
and Canadians who purchased goods before returning to the
provinces. If the communities had been located elsewhere
the impact may have been quite different.

Lincoln and Old Town lost more transient trade than
anticipated due to the centers' role in providing goods for
several Canadians stopping intentionally before continuing
on to Canada. In Freeport and Orono there was less of a
decline than expected. Only in the other nine centers did
the impact of the Interstate on transient trade approximate
what was contemplated.

There was even less regularity in the change in out—
lying trade area consumers. Centers such as Lincoln, Old
Town, Newport, Pittsfield and Island Falls, which were
bypassed, lost customers from smaller surrounding commun-
ities, but Orono and Freeport did not, and Houlton gained.

Millinocket which was closer to 195 than the former major

133
route did not obtain many outside customers as a result of
the Interstate and Patten experienced a decline. However,
both centers were still a considerable distance from the new
highway. The merchants in the other places were virtually
unaffected by a change in the shOpping patterns of the
people outside their own communities.

Despite some supporting evidence the following hypothesis
was rejected as stated: Centers which straddled a former
major highway and are bypassed willlose transients and in the
larger places, also outlying trade area consumers, while
similar communities which were not on a main route, but
now are close to the Interstate will gain. An alternative
hypothesis which was accepted is: Centers which straddled
a former major highway and are bypassed will lose transients,
while communities which were not on a main route but now
are close to the Interstate will gain.

The effect of I95 on retail sales in selected Maine
communities varied considerably, with most centers experi-
encing a negative impact. The decline in sales in the larger
towns came primarily from the altered local consumer pur-
chasing patterns, while in the smaller places the decrease
stemmed from the loss of transient trade. The decline in the
growth rate of sales, however, appeared to be only temporary.
The larger communities had made adjustments and sales were
increasing more rapidly than in the control centers. The
small places, with the exception of those close to an

expanding city, appeared to be continuing to fade away as

134
trade centers.

Thqureatest change in retail structure occurred in the
larger centers near a regional node, and although few stores
ceased operation, except highway oriented businesses, as a
result of the Interstate, many had a decrease in sales. The
types of merchandise most frequently mentioned which declined
were food, apparel, general merchandise and gasoline. A
further alteration of the retail structure took place with
the opening of specialty shops in vacant store sites, and
the addition of transient-oriented establishments and shop-
ping plazas near 195.

The regional nodes benefited the most from the Inter—
state. Even though only one such center, Houlton was
included in the research for detailed analysis, there was
evidence that Bangor, Waterville, and Portland gained much
of the business lost by the smaller communities.

While the author believes that progress towards his
goal was made much remains to be done. This study was
limited to a small geographical area, but the methods used
can be employed for investigations in other regions. Also
the findings of this inquiry can be compared with those of
similar studies in other areas.

There is a need for more research on the characteristics
of small urban places and their inhabitants in order to gain
insight into what future highway improvements may bring.
Also research should be extended to include changes in

services, population, industrial development and land use,

135
and the implications such alterations have for future polit-
ical and economic reorganization of space. Indeed, more
study needs to be done on the impact of highway improvement
on communities for planning some aspects of the future

environment.

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1949.

APPENDIX

APPENDIX A

Consumer Purchasing Patterns in Maine Study Centers

142

 

 

 

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