The Chocó bioregion in Northwestern Colombia is a lowland rain forest and hotspot of biodiversity. Significant land use and cover change (LUCC) is occurring throughout the region driven by global markets, illicit drug production, and civil unrest. The dominant land cover conversion is from primary forest to African Palm plantations, mediated and modified by complex combinations of social and biophysical drivers. This research combined a remote sensing based methodology to monitor LUCC in the region with an analytical approach for evaluating the possible trajectories of LUCC in a complex biological, socio-economical, and political environment. Synoptic LUCC models were developed using textural classification derived from Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images for the period 1995 to 2010. LUCC models along with empirical social and spatial biophysical drivers were used to project historical land use trajectories. DINAMICA EGO a complex systems based spatial analytical framework was adopted as the platform to model land use change. The RADAR backscatter was able to capture areas were forest has been converted to African Oil Palm Plantations. However, an in depth characterization of the LUC dynamics was problematic given the spectral and spatial limitations of the sensor combined with the lack of ground data. The results of the LUC model suggest that under the current socio-political conditions African oil palm plantations will continue to expand toward forested areas into the territories traditionally inhabited by Afro-Colombians and Indigenous populations. Insecure land tenure appears as a main driver of the transformation in close association with the conditions created by the armed conflict, and the drug traffic. The rate of the transformation appears to slow down in the period after 2007. However, according to the model by 2020 most of the area inhabited by ethnic groups will be transform to AOP. This study contributes towards the understanding of land use change in the context of social conflict. Although, it is recognized that conflicts impact the land–use and land-cover, few studies have address the linkages between particular circumstances and events in the conflict and the consequences for the land. As resource conflicts spread around the globe a better understanding of how it impacts the land and the people is paramount.
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