MSU LIBRARIES n \— RETURNING MATERIALS: Place in book drop to remove this checkout from your record. FINE§ will be charged if book is returned after the date stamped below. THE WOOD PRODUCTION POTENTIAL IN CHINA BY Xiaotan Zhu A THESIS Submitted to Michigan State University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE Department of Forestry 1985 ABSTRACT THE WOOD PRODUCTION POTENTIAL IN CHINA BY Xiaotan Zhu This paper gives a general picture of forestry development in China before 1985 and projects wood production in the future- Four key factors: forestry policy, plantation efforts, timber demand, and timber supply are studied in this paper. New changes in government forestry policy will have significant impact on wood production during the coming decades. The plantation efforts in the past 34 years (1949-1983) resulted in 38 million hectares of plantation establishment. ‘Wood production was 52 million cubic meters in 1983. China‘s timber consumption will be 101 million cubic meters by year 2000 if 4 percent annual growth in timber consumption is obtained. In contrast to demand, the projected physical timber supply would be 295 million cubic meters by year 2000. If the government begins to make improvements in management, wood production, wood utilization, marketing and planting quality, China may become a big exporter of timber products. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I wish to express my sincere appreciation to all the peOple who helped me in the preparation of this thesis. I am primarily indebted to my principal advisor-Dr. James Hanover—who made the great effort not only to create the opportunity for me to study at MSU, but also to make my stay at MSU so pleasant and unforgettable. I would like to take this opportunity to express my heartfelt thanks to Mrs. Hanover who gave thoughtful consideration to my accommodations on my arrival. My family and I will always be grateful for their kindness. Thanks should also be given to Dr. Lee James who helped me generate, focus and refine the ideas presented in this thesis. He and Dr. Paul Nickel carefully read the draft and their detailed comments resulted in a significantly improved final version. I am deeply grateful to Betty Holmer-Heckman and Dr. Michal Gold who painstakingly edited this thesis for me. Their excellent assistance significantly improved the readability and clarity of the thesis. I am especially thankful to Dr. Cherukat Chandrasekharan and my friends in both the Chinese Ministry of Forestry and the Chinese Academy of Forestry, who sent me necessary ii information for writing this paper. My study could not have been completed without their help. Finally, I wish to thank Dr. Raymond Millem, Dr. John Heckman, Mikew>usm uchHmQ Hm mcfims .pmuspwu mmcwucmam Hmuoe .mhma .wuummuom 0cm wusuasofiuma mo >5momu< mmmcflno .mmma .smmusm mowumwumum mcflco map .mmma .omm Eoum mmfiommm an mmCMucmHm Hmuoe "mousom omms omms ammo ommm onus oamm cum omamm Hmuoe mamm mmmm ammm mmma NASH msom mom «mHmH umsuo awe Nms mmq osv NAN kmm mm Hmvm .aam mwcsoasma Hm» mms «mm Hem mmv mam om mmmm .mmm msasaom 302:me MOOH mooa saw ems mmm has mHH saam mamUmwnsm mucomumofifiscm HONH voma NBOH mam Ham mam mma swam mcmflcommme mscflm NOBH mama mmma MNHH Hmm msHH msH News mumfiomucma adamnmcwccso Awwumuowc ocmmsonev mml mm: mm: wml mm! mml mm! mhma «baa mmma vmma mmma vmmH mvma mumm> HH< wwwowmm mCMucmHm mo mummy .mmumva mwfiommm >2 .mbcma ammo co mcw>w>usm 0cm bwcmfianmumm mc0wumucmam mwue II.~ manna 22 and Paulownia spp. are intended for timber production. In the "other" category, however, most planting has been for nontimber purposes. In the later case, 13.2 million hectares have been planted, of which only 5.51ni11ion hectares are considered to be timber plantings. The distribution of timber species planted on open lands is shown in Table 3. Shelterbelts Among the nontimber objectives in planting, Shelterbelts deserve special mention. Although the Shelterbelts have nontimber primary objectives, they can produce considerable quantities of wood. An entire county in Henan province has established Shelterbelts with an estimated wood volume of 1J2 million cubic meters. The county now provides annually 30,000 to 40,000 cubic meters of timber to the market. Shelterbelts are divided into four categories: 1) shel- terbelt for protecting farmland, 2) Shelterbelt for grazing land, 3) Shelterbelt for soil and water conservation, and 4) Shelterbelt for wind breaks and sand fixation. More than 333 million hectares of land, one third of the total land area in China, are endangered by wind damage, drought, and serious soil and water erosion. The Gobi desert, salt desert, and sand lands in northern, northeastern and northwestern China, comprise thirteen percent (128 million hectares) of total land. In addition, there are 23,000 kilometers of coast line in southeastern China where there are problems of sand land and salt desert, wind damage, and severe water and soil erosion (7). 23 Table 3. Estimated percentage of timber species planted on open lands Species Area of successful Timber plantations plantations (million hectares) (%) Cunninghamia lanceolata 7.67 25 Pinus massoniana 6.13 20 Phyllostachys pubescens 5.12 16.7 (Bamboo) Populus spp. 3.83 12.5 Paulownia spp. 2.45 8 Other conifers and broad 5.45 17.8 leaf trees Total 30.66 100 Source: (2), (3), (4), (9). 24 The big Shelterbelt project in China is called the "Three North Project" (north China, northeast and northwest China) or the "Green Wall Projectflh The engineering plan of the project was approved by the Peoplefls Congress in 1979 and the first phase of the project is expected to be completed by 1985. The Shelterbelt will be 7,000 kilometers in length running approximately parallel with and to the north of the Great Wall. The budget of the project is about 900 million yuan ($ 450 million US) and a special department has been created to carry out the work (4). There are 8 provinces, 3 autonomous regions and one municipality in north, northeast and northwest parts of China involved in the project. To date there have been 5.77 million hectares of trees planted in Shelterbelt areas, of which 4¢41nillion hectares of plantings were have been successful (11). CHAPTER IV PROJECTED TIMBER YIELDS FROM PLANTATIONS Estimated percentages of the major timber species planted from 1949—1983 are used for projecting future timber yields. The projection is based on the assumption that later plantings will have the same species distribution as earlier plantings. Projections begin with the year 1984 and are made for 5-year intervals. The projections are based on expected harvests from plantings established on open lands and replanting on previously harvested areas. They do not include harvests from some unlisted tree species CLLB percent of all plantations on open lands) or timber harvested from shelter- belts or other nontimber plantings. Fire loss, and insect and disease damage have not been considered in the projections. Timber Yields py Species To project future timber yields, growth estimates and rotations are needed by species. The estimates used are summarized in Table 4. The estimates used for Cunninghamia lanceolata are based on an average performance in 9 different climatic regions (2). Estimates for Populus spp. are based on an 25 26 .3: :3 .23 .3; :3 ambusom omnmm w o.mlm.m mcmommnsm wxcomumoHawcm Amcou owuumzv Amn\mcou ofiuumzv nmm mv ¢.o mfimcwfimuox unawm Nmm mv v.5 .mmm xwuma omv mm o.~H mcmwcomwme macaw mma NH h.ma mam msummamosm mam om m.ma mumaomocma memnmcwcch oov ma h.om .mmm mmummmmmm vvm Ha m.Hm .mmm msasmom Ham m o.¢m .mmm mficonsmm 3:35.53 Amumwwv Amc\.E.sov cowumuom mo cumcwa Lusouo cam um Gama» c0wumuom Hmscca mwfiommm mcMcU c“ poucmHm mmfiowmm moms MOnmz mo moamw» mEsHo>|a.v manna 27 average performance of stands of Populus simonii x nigra var italica, P.nigra var italica, g;_§ euramericana cv Sacrau 9, g; Canadensis. Estimates for Larix spp. are based on average performance of Larix gmelini, L.principis-rupprechtii, E; olgensis, L.sibirica. Estimates for other species rest on more limited data, but all are based on recorded measurements. Projected Timber Yields from Plantings Established pp Areas Harvested The normal practice of replanting on harvested areas is carried out by professional groups within two years after the trees are felled. Projected yield estimates (Table 5) are based on a high rate of survival and an average growth performance of Pinus koraiensis, Larix gmelini, [uprincipis- rupprechtii, L.olgensis and L.sibirica. These are the major species used to replant harvested areas in Northeastern China. g; koraiensis yields an average of 287 cubic meters per hectare, managed on a rotation of 45 years; Eggix‘gpp yield an average of 332 cubic meters per hectare, managed on a rotation of 43 years. In addition, some other species are planted, but information is not‘available. Table 5 assumes an average rotation of 44 years and a yield of 310 cubic meters per hectare from all replantings on harvested areas. Northeastern China supplies 60-70% of the wood needed in the country. The remaining harvest areas are in the northwest and western parts of China, where higher yields are assumed because the climate is milder. 28 .wumuuwc uwm muwume owosu cam mo moamww mmmum>m cam cofiumuou umwxuvv 6 mo cofium85mmm co comma omuowmxw mcawwx umoEme .mmma .smmusm momummuMDm mcwcu Eoum mmucmHm mmmu< “mousom ommm bmvh Hmuoe mmm mmam mnlmnma mam Han vbuonma «aw mmma mmummma mmm mmHH emuowma mmm ovHH mmlmmma mm on vmlomma Amumume ofinso coflaafizv Am: ooo.Hv mmomumaom maomuvaom maomnmoom moomlvoom moomummma womalvmma Umucmam bwucmHm pmuommxm mpamw» uwnEMB mususm wows mummy mnma 0» omma EOMM Uwumw>umm mmwus co Umnmfianmuwm mmcflucmHm Eoum Uwuowmxm mpamw» umnewa wususmln.m magma 29 Under the assumptions of Table 5, the area planted in 1950 will be ready to harvest by 1994. The expected harves- table volume in the period 1994—98 is projected to be only 25 million cubic meters, but it will dramatically increase to 353 million cubic meters in the years 1999—2003. The plantations established from 1950 to 1978 will bring China a total volume of 2,3201ni11ion cubic meters of timber by 2023. Projected Timber Yields from Plantings pp Open Lands Since most of the plantings on open lands are short- rotation species generally grown 6-20 years (average about 15 years), the projection of harvests has been limited to the more recently established plantations. ProjectiOns have been based on stands established after 1973 and those that will be planted later but harvested before the year 2023. The average planting rate for 1974-83 (4J31nillion hectares) is the rate assumed for future plantings. Species represen- tation in the future plantings is also assumed to remain the same as it was in 1974-83. Further assumptions are that the historical survival rate, 31 percent, will remain unchanged, and that the percentage of trees planted for timber purposes, 80 percent of the tree planted for all purposes will remain unchanged. By the assumptions above and the rotation lengths and yields listed in Table 4, expected future timber harvests from plantations on open land have been projected by species. The results are shown in Table 6. These are conservative 3O AoonEmmv mcmommnsm AN AN AN AN AN AN AN AN msnomumoflasnm Amcou Dauume coflaawzv voma mwma mmma mmm mmm mmm wow wow Hmuoe omH omH oma omH omH omH omH omH .mmm owconsmm mom mmm mmm mmm mmm mmm mmm mmm .mmm msasmom mumaowocma wkv ass «sq «Av «us «As anamcmcflccso vom vom vom mcmficommme mscfim Amuwume vanso cowaamzv mm: man man mo: moom mm: mm: mm: maom «How moom voom Immma vmma mama vmma mmfiowmm m~o~-vmma .mmfiowmm mm .mocmu ammo co mcfi>fi>uom new cmcmwanmumm mcowumucmam Eouw mpawww umbefie @wuomnoumln.m manme 31 estimates. They do not include harvests from tree species not listed in the tabulation, nor plantings established before 1974, nor plantings in natural forest areas, nor yields from plantings established primarily for nontimber purposes. Moreover, there is no recognition in the projec- tions that the rate of planting will likely increase to meet the target of 20 percent forest cover in China by the year 2000. Despite the conservative approach to the projections, the projected yields calculated increase rapidly over the projection period with 82 million cubic meters of wood plus 5 million metric tons of bamboo annually in 1984-88 to 273 million and 5 million annually in 2019-23. In contrast to 50 million cubic meters of present wood consumption in China, 273 million cubic meters annual yield of wood would bring China a total different picture in wood consumption. Projected Timber Yields from all Plantings The projected yields from plantations on areas harvested and open lands are illustrated in Table 5 and Table 6 respec- tively. The Table 7, a simple combination of Tables 5 and 6, shows projected timber yields from all plantings. 32 mcwummosm AN AN AN AN AN AN AN AN mAnomumoHHAcN Amcou owuuwe coflaawzv mmom voma coma vmma mmma mom wow wow Hmuoe oma omH omH oma omH oma omH omH .mmm mwczoasmm mom mmm mmm mmm mmm mmm mmm mmm .mmm msasmom .mmm xwuma mmm mam «av mmm mmm mm a mwmcmwmuox.m mumHomocmH vAv VAv vAw wnv env «Av mNEmnchccso mcmficommme «om «om «om mscfim Amumuwe UAQDU cofiafiflzv mm: man ma: mo: moom mm: mm: mm: maom vaom moom voom Immma vmma mama vmma mwfiommm pmuommxm mbawww umbefia mucusm Ammomlvwmav mmcfiucmHm Ham EOuu mvawww MOQEHB omuuwnoum was -u.A magma CHAPTER V TIMBER DEMAND The demand for timber is a result of many factors-- consumer preferences, income level, the abundance of forest resources, prices at which timber products can be made available to consumers, and the availableness and prices of substitute materials. Current Consumption China has had a long history of chronic timber shortage. This situation together with a large population (1,024 million in 1983) and low income levels has resulted in a low timber demand. Average 1983 net income per capita was 310 Yuan in rural areas and 826 Yuan for employees (salary and wage earners)--equivalent to $ US 413 (12). Timber products consumption was 52 million cubic meters in 1983, one-fortieth of the United States consumption. Even this level of consumption has been difficult to maintain since timber cutting restrictions were tightened in 1979. Imports increased from 539,000 cubic meters in 1977 to 1,552,000 cubic meters in 1981, valued at $ US 595 million (6). Substitutes for wood are commonplace. For example, it is a common practice to use steel doors and windows in housing construction, concrete sleepers as railroads ties, 33 34 concrete street-light poles, concrete boats, etc. Bamboo is widely used for housing, furniture and paper manufacturing. Future Demand Future demand for timber products can be dealt with here only in a general way. Some indications can be obtained from population and income projections and government deve- lopment programs of various kinds. Population increase alone will raise the level of wood consumption even if annual per capita industrial timber consumption remains constant at .05 cubic meters. The 1983 population of 1,024 million is increasing by 9.51nillion annually (12). .At this rate, the population will reach 1.1 billion in 1990, 1.14 billion in 1995, and 1.19 billion in the year 2000. Assuming no increase in per capita consumption of industrial wood, aggregate consumption will increase 3.3 Inillion cubic meters by 1990, 5(7Inillion cubic meters by 1995 and 8 million cubic meters by the year 2000. Consumption of timber will change in response to changes in GNP and personal income. According to the "Four Modernizations" plan (modernizations on agriculture, industry, national defense, science and technology), it is the govern- ment's goal to quadruple the GNP within 20 years (1981-2000) and for employee’s income to reach 2,000 Yuan. Undoubtedly, such large increase in GNP and personal income will be difficult to achieve, but to the extent that increase do occur, timber consumption will increase. 35 Production and trade data indicate that the volume of timber consumption has increased an average of about 3 percent annually over the past 10 years CD. Sales of timber from 1982 to 1983 were reported to increase 6.3 percent, and paper and paper products, 12.2 percent (12). Government plans suggest a continued drive toward development and, as a consequence, continued expansion in wood consumption. For example, the sixth five-year plan (1981-85) calls for an additional coal output of 80 million tons, which will require more than 1 million cubic meters of softwood props (1.3 cubic meters per 100 tons). An increase of 2,000 kilometers of rails and double tracking of a 1,700 kilometers of existing railways will require an additional 740,000 cubic meters of roundwood (200 cubic meters per kilometer). Housing construction is developing rapidly. In 1983, 115 million square meters of housing construction were completed in urban areas and 700 million square meters of farm housing in rural areas. To project timber demand is a hazardous undertaking, but the rate of increase under way and government targets for development suggest a range of increases on which expectations can be built. An assumption of a lower rate of growth in consumption, such as 2 percent, would project to 60 million cubic meters by 1990, 73 million cubic meters by 2000, and 77 million cubic meters by 2020. At a higher rate of growth in consumption, such as 4 percent, the projection 36 would reach 68 million cubic meters in 1990, 101 million in 2000, and 222 million in 2020. A medium-level rate of growth in annual timber consumption would approximate the 3 percent achieved in the past 10 years. Such a rate would increase consumption to 64 million cubic meter by 1990 and 86 million cubic meters by 2000. To carry the projection further, annual timber consump- tion would reach 116 million cubic meters by 2010 and 155 million cubic meters by 2020. CHAPTER VI TIMBER SUPPLY The supply of industrial timber products is heavily dependent on the forest resources available and industry‘s capacity to manufacture and distribute products. In view of projected demand, large increases in supply are considered necessary, and it is anticipated that such increases will be forthcoming. Growth in timber-products output which increased from 567,000 cubic meters in 1949 to 52,320,000 cubic meters in 1983, is expected to continue. Forest Resources China has 5.81nillion hectares of virgin forest with 1,400 million cubic meters of growing stock in the Xizhang (Tibet) autonomous region (10). Although this forest presently is inaccessible and untouched, the government plans to build a railway from Sichuan province that will tap the virgin forest and make a significant contribution to wood production by the end of this century. Other timber forest areas, located mainly in the Northeast and Southwest, cover 92 million hectares. Total growing stock of the timber forests (58 percent conifer) is estimated at 7.7 billion cubic meters. These forest currently supply most of the wood products harvested, and they are expected 37 38 to remain the primary source of timber for another decade. With sustained yield as a goal, the government has set the harvest ceiling about 501nillion cubic meters of commercial timber per year. The harvest ceiling recognizes that some 70 million cubic meters are lost to forest fires, disease, insects, forest land clearing, etc.(13). The immense plantation program will change the future sustained-yield harvest situation dramatically; In addition to annual output of 50 million cubic meters of wood from natural forests, plantations will be able to sustain annual outputs of 180 million cubic meters by 1994, 245 million cubic meters by 1999, 360 million cubic meters by 2009 and 404 million cubic meters by 2019 (Table 7). It can also be expected that with improvement in the manufacturing of wood products, still larger output of product will be obtained from the projected yields. The physical supply of timber from plantations is far in excess of any reasonable projections of wood demand in China. For example, if the medium-level rate of growth in annual timber consumption (3 percent) is maintained, China's timber consumption will reach 155 million cubic meters by 2020, little more than one—third of the sustainable physical supply of plantation that will be available. Physical wood supply is not the same as economic supply. The industrial infrastructure necessary to use the timber that will become available--inc1uding roads, logging equipment, and processing plants--is immense, and there is a 39 question about the costs at which products can be produced. But there is a developing opportunity for China to not only meet its internal wood needs, but also to become a signifi cant exporter of forest products. Forest-Products Industries With current annual consumption limited to some 52 million cubic meters of industrial timber and frequent efforts made to substitute other products for wood, forest-products industries do not represent a high stage of development. There are 209 sawmills and 244 wood-based panel plants which include plywood plants, fiberboard plants, and particle board plants (4). Pulp and paper mills number over 1,000, but these are generally small and insufficient to meet China's current demand. Existing wood-using industries face several problems. One problem is the location of mills in cities far from raw material sources, which creates high transportation costs. Another frequent problem in mills is the use of out-of-date equipment and machinery. This affects quality of product and production costs. A third problem resides in the small size of mills. Such mills have been favored in the past because they limit the capital investment required and make greater use of labor, but the small mills are neither efficient nor economical. The government, recognizing pro- duction problems in wood-using industries, increased invest- ment in new equipment and technology in 1983 by 23 percent (12). 4O figgp Timber Sawn timber is still the major wood product in China. The output of sawn timber in 1983 was 14 million cubic meters, comprising 30% of all industrial wood production (12). The productive capacity in China's sawmills ranges from 100,000 to 200,000 cubic meters per year (4). An estimated one half of China’s lumber goes into the construction industry. The extraction industry (mainly coal mining) uses an estimated 20% of the lumber supply. Boxwood and furniture account for 9%, pulp and paper about 5%, while the remainder is used for building railway sleepers, trans- mission poles, wood-based panels (plywood, particle board and fiberboard) and other miscellaneous items (5). Plywood Plywood production began in 1951 with an annual capacity of 17,000 cubic meters and reached 351,000 cubic meters by 1981. China has exported plywood products since 1955, but the quantity is insignificant. Most of the machinery used in plywood manufacturing is made in China except some key equipment including slicers, peelers, jointers, etc., which are imported from other countries. China is able to manufac- ture machines and equipment for plywood plants with a capacity less than 30,000 cubic meters per year. Several plywood plants, with an annual capacity between 30,000 and 50,000 cubic meters, are to be imported and assembled in Hunan, Jilin, and Fujian provinces. These new plants will greatly increase plywood production. 41 Fiberboard Fiberboard production began with some small scale wet- process mills and one plant with 18,000 tons of output capacity imported from Sweden. Production increased from 12,000 tons in 1959 to 568,000 tons in 1981 (14). China developed its own softboard plant and dry-process hardboard plant in 1970. A medium density fiberboard plant with an annual output of 10,000 tons was built in Hunan province in early 1980's. China has made an effort to catch up to the rest of the world in wood processing development. A medium density fiberboard plant with a 50,000 ton annual capacity was imported to Fujian province from the United States in 1982 and a similar medium density fiberboard plant was introduced from Sweden to Heilongjiang province. Several plants with smaller output are scheduled to be built in Sichuan and Guangdong provinces, and in the cities of Beijing, Shanghai and 'Tiajin. The main problems in current fiberboard production are: l) the machinery is old and outmoded; and 2) water pollution from the wet process needs to be reduced. As a solution, the government plans to replace some of the older equipment and import technology and equipment to control water pollution. Particle Board Progress in the production of particle board has been slow. Production began in 1962 with 5,000 cubic meters annually and reached only 77,000 cubic meters by 1981 (14). 42 The main reason for this slow progress has been an insufficient supply of adhesive. It appears that China may have finally solved this problem because several particle board plants have recently been established. China is able to produce equipment for particle board production facilities with an annual productive capacity between 10,000 to 15,000 cubic meters. In addition to the establishment of particle board plants with equipment manufactured in country, China has imported several plants with 30,000 to 50,000 cubic meters output capacity in recent years. These plants have been installed or are going to be installed in the cities of Beijing, Tianjin and Guangzhou, and the provinces of Heilongjiang, Jilin, Hunan and Sichuan. Particle board production will increase dramatically within the next few years. Pulp and Paper There are more than 1,000 paper mills in China ranging in capacity from 1,000 metric tons per year to 100,000 metric tons per year (4). Over 20 percent of the raw material used in Chinese paper is wood pulp. The remainder of the fiber materials are drawn from other sources including bamboo, straw, crop stocks, etc. The total output from paper and paperboard manufacturing facilities in 1983 was 6.61 million metric tons (12), which is not sufficient to meet the demand. China has to import large amounts of wood pulp and paper products. The need for the importation of wood pulp and paper products will continue for some years 43 Chemical Products There are some valuable chemical products derived from trees. The oil content of Eucalyptus spp. averages 1.2%. One hectare of Eucalyptus plantation can produce 7.5 metric tons of leaves from which oil and tannin are extracted. There are about 60,000 hectares of Eucalyptus plantation in China which can yield 5,400 metric tons of oil. The tannin output of Eucalyptus is much higher since the content in Eucalyptus is 8 times higher than that of oil (4). A study shows the resin and oil content in Pinus _e_l_l_iottii is 19.2- 22.3%, 5-6% higher than that of Pinus massoniana (2). The production of chemical products can be expected to expand greatly with the development of plantations in China. A new gasifying rosin plant, imported from Japan, was put into production in 1983 in the Guangxi Autonomous Region. Similar plants will be built in the southern provinces. Through its own efforts, China has developed a variety of adhesives for plywood, particle board, and surface finishing production. A partial list of these adhesives includes urea- formaldehyde resin, phenol-formaldehyde resin, melamine, tego film, phenol-formaldehyde resin for impregnation, polyvinyl acetate emulsion, modified melamine resin, rubber resin, NDA-binary polymer resin and EVA hot melt adhesive. The percentage of surface treated products has been increased in recent years. Examples of common uses of surface treatment include thin decorative paper and PVC film overlay by roll 44 pressing, direct printing on the surface of particle board, micro-veneer overlay, low pressurelnelamine overlay, etc.(14). Marketing pf Forest Products Forest product marketing in China is strictly controlled by the State. The distribution of all timber products in forest areas is under a unified plan and management. Railways are prohibited from shipping out any wood without a forestry administrations certificate. Five state organizations- Ministry of Forestry, State Planning Commission (SPC), State Bureau of Commodity Prices (SBCP), Ministry of Commerce and the Ministry of Railways and Communications are involved in the marketing of forest products. This is largely based on a unified production and purchase plan which includes all forest farm production and 70-90% of commune-owned forestry production (5). The user departments and units are required to submit their requirements to the SPC, where the requirements are incorporated into the national unified production and purchase plan. The Ministry of Forestry prepares its annual production plan according to the plan from SPC and allocates production goals to all state forest farms and commune-owned forestry production units. These farms and units are required to supply their products at prices fixed by SBCP. The products are sold to the users through the commercial departments in conformity with SPC plan (5). 45 Market prices of timber set by the SBCP vary from one region to another depending on species, location and quality. Timber prices have long been set at low levels. This was partly because the SBCP is basing the price on the direct costs of lumber production and neglecting the costs of afforestation and maintenance. This pricing policy allowed little or no margin to the producing units to finance their development programs. That was one reason cutting far exceeded planting (5). There was a pricing adjustment of lumber values in 1979 and as a result lumber prices increased over 50%. Following this price hike, manufactured timber product prices for plywood, furniture, etc., increased about 10%. Trees owned by individuals do not come under the state unified plan and can be sold in the local market. Some of the timber products produced by commune-owned forestry pro- duction units are also sold in local markets.L/ The local market price operates according to supply and demand. However, the price of timber products in the local market is always higher than the state price. It is expected that the local markets will play an increasingly important role in timber supply as the new forestry policy is carried out. 1/ The government allows commune-owned forestry production units to keep a certain percentage of the timber products they have produced. The production units can dispose of these retained timber products as they will. CHAPTER VI I 29.21am About 40 percent of rural household energy is provided by fuelwood. Wood is an important source of energy, but the historical shortage of wood in most of China has encouraged the economical use of fuelwood for rural cooking and heating and the search for alternative sources of energy. Fuel sources vary depending on geographical location in China. In the rural area in northern China (particularly the forest areas), one can easily find large wood piles behind houses. However, in southern China, wood piles are replaced by piles of wheat straw, rice straw, cotton stock, soybean stock, etc. In areas such as Tibet and Inner Mongolia, people use dried cattle or horse dung as fuel. Use of methane-generating pit, an inexpensive source of energy, has developed rapidly in China. Some peasants have started to use electrical cooking facilities since inexpensive electricity is now.availab1e from small hydroelectric power stations which have been built by peasants. Solar energy is being tried for cooking, heating, and lighting in some households in the northwest part of China. The government has also loosened its restrictions on small coal mines operated by peasants enabling them to obtain coal for fuel. Table 8 shows the relative dependence of rural China on different sources of household energy. At present only 46 47 Table 8 —- Rural Household Energy Consumption in China by Type of Fuel Fuel Quantity Coal Energy Equivalent Percentage of Total Energy (million tons) Crop reSIdues 266 129.2 44.4 Fuelwood 180 115.7 39.7 Coal 53 37.9 13.0 Dung 10 5.5 1.9 Kerosene 1 1.5 0.5 Electricity --- 1.0 0.3 Biogas -—- 0.6 0.2 Total 291.4 100.0 Source: (5). 48 three sources are important--crop residues, fuelwood. and ?#c coal--although minor sources such as biogas and electricity are gaining in use. Fuelwood, representing 40 percent of the energy used by rural households, appears to be at least holding its own as a source of energy. Its use, increasing from 129 million cubic meters in 1970 to 157 million in 1981 (3), is increasing annually at a 2 percent rate, somewhat faster than population growth. Government policy does assign priority to fuelwood planting, but it does not promote fuelwood planting on a scale commensurate with that of timber planting. According to one recent report, about 770,000 hectares of fuelwood plantations have been established since 1950 (4). And in recent years, small plots of wasteland have been assigned to rural families in which to grow fuelwood, and the ownership of such plots is protected by law. In the aggregate, such private plots comprise about 16.7 million hectares. This development of private plots for fuelwood will play an increasing role in meeting rural household energy requirements (5). It is also understood that the massive program of plantations for timber and other purposes will supply great quantities of wood byproducts-~dead branches, dead trees, logging debris, etc.--which can be used as fuelwood. The need for large scale fuelwood plantations is not seen as a critical need. CHAPTER VIII IMPROVEMENTS NEEDED In contrast to other areas of national development, forestry development requires the government's long-term commitment and its strong and real (not symbolic) support. The governmentls commitment to forestry has been small com- pared with that of agriculture in the past 35 years. The government has supported the extension of forest planting, but it needs to increase investment in management and the production, utilization, and marketing of forest products which are critical to the future development of China. It is of vital importance to expand the current policy which favors forestry development. This policy should not be subject to revision whenever the leading bodies in government are replaced. The success of the current plantation program hinges on how the peasants react toward the current policy and its continuation. Efficiency Improvement Foreign business interests often find it difficult to establish contacts with the right department when they want to do business in forest products with China. The main responsibilities of the Ministry of Forestry are planting trees and providing wood products. Pulp and paper 49 50 manufacturing, and a portion of furniture-making, and wood— based panel plants are the responsibility of the Ministry of Light Industry. The export and import of wood products is carried out by the China National Native Produce and the Animal By-products Import and Export Corporation. The import and export of forestry equipment and machinery are the responsibility of the China National Machinery Import and Export Corporation. If new technology and complete sets of equipment are hmvolved, the China National Complete Plant Import Corporation and China National Technical Import Cor- poration will be the responding bodies. This complicated organizational system is not only confusing to foreign businessmen, it is also inefficient. In a typical case in the early 1980's, the Ministry of Forestry lost a good opportunity to purchase a wood-based panel plant because of the mountains of red tape required by corporations and governmental departments. There was a government organizational adjustment in 1982, but this did not involve any change in the above- mentioned arrangements. The government has tried to improve working efficiency and has changed some departments into companies. This has not had much impact because these companies are still administered in the same way. The main problem is that people committed to business are not allowed to make the decisions, and those who do make the decisions are not actually involved in business. It is hard to believe 51 that these decision makers can do a good job without more specific knowledge about the actual business. Future projections indicate that China will greatly expand wood exports in the early 1990s. To help insure that these projections are realized, China should make some organiza— tional adjustments, improve its way of doing business and ready herself to enter the world market. Attract Foreign Investment China has rapidly expanded its cooperation with world organizations and other countries in recent years. Several international assistance projects are now being carried on in China. However, there are few foreign investments or joint venture projects in forestry because of inadequate attention to seeking foreign investment. In addition, there are no specific regulations on foreign investment and joint ventures in forestry. Forest road density is only one meter of road per hectare of area which is far from sufficient and most of the equipment and machinery in wood processing plants are out-dated. To meet the expanding demand for wood production in the 1990's, the replacement of old equipment and the construction of forest roads should begin. However, as the government is unable to provide sufficient funds to meet all the aforementioned needs, the Ministry of Forestry should develop sound investment regulations to attract foreign investment. 52 Give Full Play pp China's Advantages China's biggest advantage is its abundant supply of labor. If combined with advanced technology and government backing , China will be a strongest competitors in the world market. China can now manufacture small scale wood processing equipment at competitive prices. This equipment is welcomed by developing countries. In spite of its obvious potential, neither salesmen nor product catalogs have paid proper atten- tion to this situation. An effort should be made to improve the quality of products to move into the world market. In addition, the factories producing the exported products should be involved in this trade and kept well informed of the situation in the world market to derive the greatest share of benefit from such trade. Salesmen and Businessmen Needed In the near future, China is going to bring its wood products into the world market and start forest development projects in other developing countries. Many qualified people wil 1 be needed to carry out the work. To do business in world markets, China should have salesmen and businessmen who have forestry and business knowledge and are fluent in foreign languages. Now China lacks this type of person. Business and marketing courses are suggested as additions to the curricula of forestry colleges so that interested students can have 2-3 years of forestry training and 2-3 years of study in business and foreign languages. Another way to fulfill this need is to send some forestry graduates to 53 business colleges for training. To serve the immediate needs, interpreters who have worked several years in the Ministry of Forestry can be trained in forestry and business for 2-3 years. Business and marketing research offices should be established in key foreign countries. Improve the Quality pg Planting A big plantation campaign was launched in 1980. Bearing in mind that the success rate of plantations was only 31% in the past 30 years, the plantation figures should not be overstressed. Increased attention should be paid to the quality of plantations. In addition, the importance of using genetically improved seeds should be fully understood. The Ministry oprorestry should put more investment in and pay more attention to seed orchards and improved seed production so that the percentage of improved seeds used in plantations will increase as soon as possible. Seed users should not only know the comparative prices of seed, but they should understand the benefits of using improved seed. CHAPTER IX Conclusion China has attained impressive progress in forestry development in the past 35 years. One hundred and twenty three million hectares of trees were planted in the open lands during the period of 1950-1983, of which 38 million hectares of these plantations have survived. In addition, 'L6 million hectares of planting were established on the areas harvested from 1950-1982. As a result, forest coverage in China has increased from 8 percent to 12 percent. The immense plantation program will change the future sustained-yield harvest situation dramatically. In addition to the annual output of 52 million cubic meters of wood from natural forest, plantations will be able to sustain annual outputs of 180 million cubic meters by 1994, 245 million cubic meters by 1999, 360 million cubic meters by 2009, and 404 million cubic meters by 2019. Consumption of timber has increased steadily from 12.33 million cubic meters in 1952 to 52 million cubic meters in 1983. The per capita consumption of timber products is about 0.5 cubic meters. It is expected that the timber consumption will continue to increase in response to increase of GNP, personal income, and population. 54 55 Undoubtedly, the governmentis 20 year-goal (1981-2000) of quadrupled GNP and employee’s income increasing from 650 to 2,000 Yuan will increase timber consumption dramatically. A higher rate of growth in annual timber consumption (4 percent) would increase consumption to 68 million cubic meters by 1990 and 101 million cubic meters by 2000. Timber-products output which increased from 567,000 cubic meters in 1949 to 52,320,000 cubic meters in 1983, is expected to continue increasing. The physical supply of timber from plantation and natural forest will be able to reach 230 million cubic meters by 1994, 295 million cubic meters by 1999, and 454 million cubic meters by 2019. If the higher rate of growth in annual timber consumption (4 percent) is obtained, China's timber consumption will be about one-third of the sustainable supply of plantation and natural forest that will be available» If the Chinese government starts to pay more attention to industrial infras- tructure such as roads, logging equipment, and processing plants, there is a developing opportunity for China to not only meet its industrial wood needs, but also to become a significant exporter of forest products. The Chinese government has these targets for the year 2000 : 1) 20 percent forest cover; 2) 100 million cubic meters of timber output annually; 3) 12 billion cubic meters of forest stock; and 4) quadrupled output value of the forest industry. To accomplish the above-mentioned goals, a special effort should be made to translate forest policy into laws 56 which would not be subject to quick change and to pursue the development of capable and efficient administra-tion. These aspects of policy are interrelated and interact with one another. Good forestry policy lays a foundation for sound forestry development, but it should be supported and protected by the law to ensure it's continuation and effectiveness. The establishment of laws relating to forestry development should help to prevent interference from political movements and changes in leadership. However, because good forestry policies and their enforcement are carried out by leaders at 2x11 levels of government, it is important to have knowledgeable and conscientious leaders working in forestry departments. This paper shows that China has great potential in wood production. If it continues to keep efforts concentrated on plantations, China will not only completely change the situation of wood shortage, but also become a major wood exporting country by the middle of the 19905. 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