ABSTRACT WING TAIWAN'S PER CAPITA WARM INCIDME GAP VIA INCREASED AGRICULTURAL PRODIL‘I'ION AND GUARANTEED PRICES: PKJJECI'IODB AND ANALYSIS , 1973-1984 By Raphael Shen Over the past nineteen years, Taiwan' s industrial production has been increasing at a steady annual rate of 14.7 percent. Agricultural productionoverthesanetineperiodsmarreager annualgrcwthrate of 4 . 8 percent. Agriculture has fallen in relative importance within the eccnanic structure in Taiwan. A succession of four-year ecomgtfic cbvelopnent plans has been focusing its attention more on the expansion of secondary and teriary sectors. As a result, the farmer's share of the rapidly increasing national per capita income has been steadily falling relative to a nonfamer. The increasingly unfavorable income differential between farm and nonfarm people not only limits the pur- chasing power by farmers of industrial products, it also curtails the reinvestment ability of persons on farms. The main objective of this study is to provide decision makers with alternative per capita farm incane consequences to various policy measures in the foam of price support for selected major agricultural products . Mare specifically, this study: 1) constructs the hitherto unavailable time series data Raphael Shen (11 per hectare cash expenditures for the production of major crops in Taiwan, 1959-1972; 2) establishes projective relationships for yields of nine major crops and then projects the consequences of alternative prediction possibilities for the year 1973-1984; 3) projects through tine four alternative per capita farm income streams and four resulting farm/mnfarm incare ratios for the years 1973-1984; and, 4) makes recamerriations concerning ways of closing the income gap between the farm and nonfarm populace through price support programs . 1 Due to the lack of detailed knowledge and data needed to construct structural equations , the projective equations set forth in this study do not weave into a system of "n" equations with "n" mflmcwns which can be reduced. Rather, the projective equations used in this study are probably partially reduced forms of mspecified and unknown struc- tural equations. Each of the equations is distinct, and the endogenous variables are expressed as functions of exogenous , lagged endogenous or policy variables. Their strength is not in their individually estimated parameters as in their nonmonetary parameters and in having the estimated results fed into structural identities in a later stage. In the projective equatims, the per hectare yields of crops in time period "t" are the functions of their 00nt per hectare cash expenditures in "t" , which are in turn the functions of policy detemrined prices of these respective crqns in "t-l". Via structural identities, per hectare yields of these crops , together with their corresponding hectareages cropped and their respective prices during the tine period, result in their contributions to total value product of crqo productions. Incomes frcm crqnping actitivites , in conjunction Raphael Shen with incanes fran livestock raising activities constitute farm incanes . fran farming activities. The latter, added onto projected farm inccme from nmfanning activities , represents the total farm incane . A crmparison through time is then made of the per capita farm and nonfarm income to determine whether a given price support policy is adequate in its attarpt to raise crqa/livestock productions and to close the per capita farm/nonfarm income gap in Taiwan. Fran the four projected per capita farm inccmes consequent upon four alternative policy measures, it is concluded that policy alternatives I arri II do not ad’xieve the stated objective of closing inccme gaps between the two sectors of Taiwan's population. Policy alternative III projects rapid narrowing of the said inccne gap. ' But whether consumers of farm products will accept the proposed level of price support for selected agricultural products is subject to further consideration by policy makers. Projection results from alternative IV promise to raise agricultural productions and agricultural incores in a more moderate pace than alternative III. Yet, policy alternative IV projects the narrowing of inccme gap between farm and ncmfann population in Taiwan during the period of projection. The study results suggest that the perennial problems of inability to consolidate/nechanize fame in Taiwan may "resolve tharselves" in time as a by product of implementing policy alternatives III or IV. This study also points out the need for nore detailed farm input data for future studies. ‘7 NARROWING'TAIWAN'S PER.CAPITA.EARMflm1flflUEdJIKIFE: GAP VIA.INCREASED.AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION AND GUARANTEED PRICES: PROJECTIONS.AND.ANALYSIS, 1973-1984 By Raphael Shen A.DISSERTATION Submitted to Michigan State University in partial fulfilment of the requnranents for the degree of DOCTOR.OF PHILOSOPHY Department of Agricultural Ecorrxnics 1975 To the Society of Jesus ii To Professor Glenn L. Johnson, my major professor and thesis supervisor, my lasting gratitude and appreciation. His intellectual acumen, patient prodding, kind encouraganent and insightful comments have constructively guided me throughout my graduate program at Michigan State University. May my future adequately reflect his influence on me during the past. I also wish to thank Professors Iester V. Manderscheid, Vernon L. Sorenson and J. Allan Beegle for having served both on my guidance and thesis carmittee. Their wise guidance and helpful sugges- ticns are deeply appreciated. Gratitude is also due to Victor E. Smith, Professor and Chairman of the Economics Department, for having served on my guidance cannittee. To Enid Maitland, who patiently typed the draft of my thesis, and to Laura Flanders who kindly handled the canputer work for Ire, my sincere thanks . iii II III TABLE OF CQVI‘EN'I‘S Taiwan: land, Population and Agriculture . . . Agriculture and Other Sectors of the Economy . Problems and Implications . ..... . . . . . Need of Favorable Agricultural Policy Measures General Background for Rice, Sugarcane and Livestock Production in Taiwan . . . . . . . . Study Objectives . . . . . . . ........ ScopeofStudy..... ......... .. Justification and Constraints . ...... . . OrderofPresentation............. GeneralApproachtothisStudy . . . . . . . . DataCategories ..... ProjectiveEquations Structural Identities and Accounting Components Recursive Generation of Criterion Variables . . Policy Variables from Government Directives . . Tests of Objectivity . . . . ......... Arrival at Recommendations and Conclusions . . DATA DISAGGREEATION AND ASSEMBIAGE . ....... Use of Aggregate Data and Data Disaggregation . Allocation of Cash Expenditure to Major Crops: 1970 Cash Expenditures for the Major Cr0ps, 1971 andl972 Obtaining Information on (berating Ebcpenditures fortheMajchropsPriortol970....... REBRESSICN RESULTS, COVIPARISCN OF HISTORICAL DATA WI‘II-I REBUUI‘S FROVI REERESSIQQ ANAIXSIS, IDENI‘ITIES ANDACCCMNI'IBECQ’IPONEN'IS ............ Estimated Coefficients, 122, s, F and t Test val-ms O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O C O C O O CICP SIbSECtOI' c o o o o o o o o o o o o o o Iii-mm SUbSGCtOI' o o oooooooo ' o 0 iv GENERAL APPROACH AND MEI‘HOIIDIIXSICAL ISSUES ..... 41 44 51 56 56 56 63 Chapter VII VIII Regression Results in Carparison with moorded AggregateData Overall Coefficient of Detenmination . . . . . . PROTECTED CCNSEQUEMIES UNDER POLICY ALTERNATIVE I . Total Value Product from Crop Subsector . . . LivestockSubsector ..... Total Value Product from Livestock Subsector Income from Fanning Activities ......... PerCapitaFarmandNonfarmIncames . . . . . . PROJECI'ED CCNSEDUENCES UNDER POLICY ALTERNATIVE II, 1973-1984 0 O O O O O O O O O O O O I O O O O C O O DeterminaticnofCropPrices . . . . . . . . . . Projected Per Hectare Value Product and Total ValueProductofMajorCrops . . . . . . . . . . Projected Total Value Product, Total Cost and NetRevenuefrcmAllCrops. . . . . . . . . . . Projected Per Capita Farm and Nonfarm Income UnderPolicyAlternativeII ..... PWECTED CCNSEDUEMIES UNDER POLICY ALTEINATIVE III Determination of Crop Prices . . . . ..... Projected Average Per Hectare Value Product and Total Value Product of Maj or Crops Under AlternativeIII Projected Total Value Prodert, Total Cost and Net Revenue from All Cr0ps Under Policy Alterna- tiveIII.................... Projected Per Capita Farm and Nonfarm Incate Under Policy Alternative III . . . . ..... . PROJECTED C(I‘ISEDUENCES UNDER POLICY AL'IERQATIVE IV DeterminationofCropPrices.......... Projected Average Per Hectare Value Product and Total Value Product of Major Crops Under AlternativeIV ..... Projected Total Value Product, Total Cost and Net mvenue fram All Crops Under Policy Projected Per Capita Farm and Nonfarm Inccme UnderPolicyAlternativeIV .. ... . V Page 65 72 74 74 83 84 86 87 90 93 93 102 103 104 106 106 115 115 118 119 119 127 127 128 Chapter Page IX ANALYSIS OF (INSEQUENCE‘S TO POLICY ALTERNATIVES, WIWSABDREEO’MENDATIOBB.... ...... .. 129 Possible Changes in Factor Cost as a Result of PriceSupportProgram 131 Effects of Policy Alternatives on Resource Use Among Crops ................ . . . 134 Effects of Policy Alternatives on Variations in Per Hectare Yields and on Value Products . . . . . . 146 Incate Consequences to the Farm and Nonfanm Popu- latim Under the Four Policy Alternatives . . . . . 153 Possible Effects of Policy Alternatives III and IV on Fanm Mechani zation and Land Consolidation ProgramsinTaiwan.. ........ .......160 Possible Effect of Policy Alternatives III and IV toOff-FarmMigrationinTaiwan . . . . . . . . . . 162 ConclusionsandRecamendations . . . . . . . . . . 163 BMW-N O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O 165 APPlem O C O O O O O O O O O I O O O C O O O O O O O O O O O 0 l6 9 A Derivation of Adjusted Per Hectare Cash Expenditures inTaiwan,1959-l968 169 B Projected Per Hectare Cash Expenditures in Taiwan Under Policy Alternative I, 1973—1984 . . . . . . . . . 179 C Projected Per Hectare Cash Expenditures in Taiwan Under Policy Alternative II, 1973-1984 . . . . . . . . 191 D Projected Per Hectare Cash Expenditures in Taiwan Under Policy Alternative III, 1974-1984 . . . . . . . . 203 E Projected Per Hectare Cash Expenditures in Taiwan UH$I POliCY mmuve IV, 1975-1984 0 o o o o o o o 214 vi LIST OF TABLES Table Page 3. l Derived Data for Annual Average Per Hectare Cash Expenditure inTaiwan, 1959-1972 . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 3.2 Adjusted per Hectare Cash Expenditure for the Production of Major Crops in Taiwan, 1970 . . . . . . . 42 3. 3 Crop Pricei t and Weighted Average Crop Price t in Taiwan 1958-1973....................... 46 3. 4 Ratios of Annual Crop Price Changei t Relative to Weighted Average Crop Pricet in Taiwan, 1958-1973 . . . 47 3.5 Adjusted per Crop/per Hectare Cash Expenditure in Taiwan, 1971 o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o 49 3.6 Adjusted per Crop/Per Hectare Cash Expenditure in . Taiwan' 1972 o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o 52 3.7 Adjusted Per Cropi /Per Hectare Cash Expenditure in Taiwan,1969...................... 54 4.1 Historical Value Products of Major CrOps and Livestock Products in Taiwan, 1959-1972 . . . . . ..... . . . 67 4.2 Estimated Value Products of Major Crops and Livestock inTaiwan,1959-l972.................. 69 4. 3 Ratios of Estimated Value Products /Historical Value Products for Major Crops and Livestock Products, 1959-1972 . . . . . ....... . . . . . . . . . . . _7l 5. 1 Log Linearly Projected Price of Major Crops and Average Crop PricetinTaiwan, 1974-1984 . . . . . . . . . . . . 76 S. 2 Ratios of Crop Price Change Relative to Average Crop Price in Taiwan Under Policy Alternative I, 1974-1985 . 77 5. 3 Logarithmic Projections of Hectares Cropped in Taiwan’ 1974-1984 0 o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o 78 5.4 Projected Cash Expenditures for Major Crops in Taiwan Unchr Policy Alternative I, 1973-1984 . . . . . . . . . 80 vii Table Page 5. 5 Projected per Hectare Yield of Major Crops in Taiwan Under Policy Alternative I, 1973-1984 . . . . . . . . . 81 5.6 Projected Total Value Products from Nine Major Crops and from All Crops in Taiwan Under Policy Alternative I,l973-1984.. ..... 82 5.7 Total Cost of the Nine Majro Crops, for all the Crops, and the Total Net Income from the Crop Subsector in Taiwan Under Policy Alternative I, 1973-1984 . . . . . 83 5 . 8 Projected Livestock Production in Taiwan Under Policy Altemtive I, 19.73-1984 e e e e e o e e o o ..... 84 5. 9 Projected Value Products from Livestock Subsector in Taiwan, 1973-1984 ......... . ....... 86 5.10 Projected Net Income from Livestock Production in Taiwan’ 19.73-1984 e e e e e e e e e o e e e e e e e e e 86 5. 11 Projected Total Income, Total Farm POpulation, and Per Capita Net Farm Income from Farming Activities in 5.12 Per Capita Farm and Nonfarm Income in Taiwan, 1959-1972 90 5.13 Projected Per Capita Farm and Nonfarm Income Streams in Taiwan Under Policy Alternative I, 1973-1984 . . . . 91 6. 1 Policy Determined Prices of Major Crops in Taiwan Under Policy Alternative II, 1974-1984 . . . . . . . . . . . 98 6. 2 Ratios of Crop Price Change Relative to Weighted Average Crop Price in Taiwan Under Policy Alternative II, 1974-1984....................... 99 6. 3 Projected Per Hectare Cash Expenditures for Major Crops in Taiwan Under Policy Alternative II, 1973-1984. 100 6.4 Projected Per Hectare Yields of Major Crops in Taiwan Urrier Policy Alternative II, 1973-1984 . . . . . . . . 101 6 . 5 Projected Per Hectare Value Product and Total Value Product for Major Crops in Taiwan, Under Policy AlternativeII,l973-l984............... 102 6.6 Projected Total Value Product, Total Cost and Net Revenue from All Crops in Taiwan Under Policy Alternative II,1973-l984.. .......... 103 viii Table Page 6.7 Projected Per Capita Farm and Nonfarm Income in Taiwan Under Policy Alternative II, 1973-1984 . . . . . . . . . . 104 7. 1 Policy Determined Prices of Major Crops in Taiwan Under Policy Alternative III, 1974-1984 . ........ 110 7. 2 Ratios of Crop Price Changes Relative to Weighted Average Crop Price in Taiwan Under Policy Alternative III . . . . 111 7. 3 Projected Per Hectare Cash Expenditures for Major Crops in Taiwan Under Policy Alternative III, 1973-1984 . . . . 112 7. 4 Projected Per Hectare Yield of Major Crops in Taiwan Under Policy Alternative III, 1974-1984 . . . . . . . . . . -. . 113 7. 5 Projected Average Per Hectare Value Product and Total Value Products of Major Crops in Taiwan Under Policy Alterna- tiw III, 1973.19 84 I O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O 11.5 7. 6 Projected Total Value Product, Total Cost and Net Revenue from All Crops in Taiwan Under Policy “mum III, 19.73-1984 e e e e e e e e e e o e e e e o 115 7.7 Projected Per Capita Income to Farm and Nonfarm Persons in Taiwan Under Policy Alternative III, 1973-1984 . . . . 118 8.1 Policy Determined Prices of Major Crops in Taiwan Under Policy Alternative IV, 1973-1984 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123 8. 2 Ratios of Crop Price Changes Relative to Weighted Average Crop Price in Taiwan Under Pol icy Alternative IV, 1973-1984 . . . . . . .............. . . 124 8. 3 Projected Per Hectare Cash Expenditure for Major Crops in Taiwan Under Policy Alternative IV, 1973-1984 . . . . . 125 8.4 Projected Per Hectare Yield of Major Crops in Taiwan Under Policy Alternative IV, 1974-1984 . ...... . . . 126 8. 5 Projected Average Per Hectare and Total Value Products of Major Crops in Taiwan Under Policy Alternative IV, 19.73-1984 e e e e o e e e e e e e e e e e e e e e o e e e 127 8.6 Projected Total Value Products, Total Cost and Net Revenue from All Crops in Taiwan Under Policy Alternative IV, 197}1984 O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O 0 127 8.7 Projected Per Capita Income Streams to Farm and Nonfarm Persons in Taiwan Under Policy Alternative IV, 1973-1984 . 128 Table 9.1 9.2 9.3 9.5 9.6 A.2 A.3 A.4 A.8 A.9 A. 10 Projected.Per Hectare Cash Expenditure oanajor Crops in Taiwan under the Four Policy Alternatives, 1974,1979andl984................... Projected Percentage Increases in Per Hectare Cash Expenditure in.Taiwan Under the Four Policy.A1ternatives, 1979andl984asaPercentofl974 . . . . . . . . . . . Projected Per Hectare Yield Increase Under.A1ternative Policy Measures in Taiwan, 1984 as a Percent of 1973 . . Projected Per Hectare Profit under Alternative Policies in Taiwan for the Year 1984 . . . . . . . . . . ..... Per Capita Farm Profit from the Livestock Subsector under the Four Policy.Alternatives, 1973-1984 ...... Projected Per Capita Farmland.Ncnfarm.Inccmes in Taiwan Under the Four Policy Alternatives (1984 as a Percentofl972) .......... .......... Derivation.of.Adjusted.per Crop per Hectare Cash Expenditure, 1968 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Derivation of.Adjusted.per Crop per Hectare Cash Expenditure, 1967 . . . ..... . . . . . . . . . . . . Derivation oandjusted per Crop per Hectare Cash Expenditure, 1966 . . . . . ....... . . . . . . . . Derivation of Adjusted per Crop per Hectare Cash Expenditure, 1965 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Derivation.of Adjusted per Crop per Hectare Cash Expenditure, 1964 ...... . . . . . . . . . ..... Derivation.of Adjusted.per Crop per Hectare Cash Expenditure, 1963 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Derivation.oandjusted.p r Crop per Hectare Cash Expenditure, 1962 . . . . ..... . . . . . . ..... Derivation.of Adjusted.per Crop per Hectare Cash Expenditure, 1961 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Derivation.of Adjusted per Crop per Hectare Cash Expenditure, 1960 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ...... Derivation.of.Adjusted.per Cropi per Hectare Cash Expenditure, 1959 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . X Page 135 136 146 150 152 159 169 170 171 172 173 174 175 176 177 178 n Table Page 8.1 Projected Per Crop Per Hectare Cash Expenditure Under PolicyAlternativeI,l973............... 179 B.2 Projected per Crop per Hectare Cash Expenditure Under Policy Alternative I, 1974 . . ...... . ..... . 180 B. 3 Projected per CrOp per Hectare Cash Expenditure Under Policy Alternative I, 1975 . . . . . . . . . ...... 181 B. 4 Projected per Crop per Hectare Cash Expenditure Under PolicyAlternativeI,l976............... 182 B. 5 Projected per Crop per Hectare Cash Expenditure Under PolicyAlternativeI,1977............... 183 B. 6 Projected Per Crop Per Hectare Cash Expenditure Under Policy Alternative I, 1978 . . . . . . . . ....... 184 B. 7 Projected per Crop per Hectare Cash Expenditure, Under PolicyAlternativeI,1979............... 185 B.8 Projected per Crop per Hectare Cash Expenditure Under PolicyAlternativeI,1980............... 186 B. 9 Projected per Crop per Hectare Cash Expenditure Under PolicyAlternativeI,1981............... 187 B.10 Projected per Crop per Hectare Cash Expenditure,Under Policy Alternative I, 1982 ..... . . . . . . . . . . 188 B. 11 Projected per Crop per Hectare Cash Expenditure Under PolicyAlternativeI,1983............... 189 B. 12 Projected per Crop per Hectare Cash Expenditure, Under PolicyAlternativeI,l984............... 190 C.1 Projected per Hectare Cash Expenditure on Major Crops Under Policy Alternative II, 1973 . . . . . . . . . . . 191 C.2 Projected per Hectare Cash Expenditure on Major Crops Under Policy Alternative II, 1974 . . . . . . . . . . . 192 C. 3 Projected per Hectare Cash Expenditure on Major Crops UnderPolicyAlternativeII,l975 193 C.4 Projected per Hectare Cash Expenditure on Major Crops Under Policy Alternative II, 1976 . . . . . . ..... 194 Table Page C.5 Projected per Hectare Cash Expenditure on Major Crops Under Policy Alternative II, 1977 . . . . . . . . 195 C.6 Projected per Hectare Cash Expenditure on Major Crop Under Policy Alternative II, 1978 . . ...... 196 C. 7 Projected per Hectare Cash Expenditure on Major Crops Under Policy Alternative II, 1979 . ....... 197 C.8 Projected per Hectare Cash Expenditure on Major Crops Under Policy Alternative II, 1980 . . . . . . . . 198 C.9 Projected per Hectare Cash Expenditure on Major Crops Under Policy Alternative II, 1981 . . . . . . . .' 199 C. 10 Projected per Hectare Cash Expenditure on Major Crops Under Policy Alternative II, 1982 ...... . . 200 C. 11 Projected per Hectare Cash Expenditure on Major Crops Under Policy Alternative II, 1983 . . . . . . . . 201 C. 12 Projected per Hectare Cash Expenditure on Major Crops Under Policy Alternative II, 1984 ........ 202 D. 1 Projected per Hectare Cash Expenditure for Major Crcps in Taiwan Under Policy Alternative III, 1974 . . 203 D.2 Projected per Hectare Cash Expenditure for Major Crops in Taiwan Under Policy Alternative III, 1975 . . . . . . . 204 D.3 Projected per Hectare Cash Expenditure for Major Crops Under Policy Alternative III, 1976 . . . . . . . 205 D.4 Projected per Hectare Cash Expenditure on Major Crops Under Policy Alternative III, 1977 ..... . . 206 D.5 Projected per Hectare Cash Expenditure on Major Crops Under Policy Alternative III, 1978 . . . . . . . 207 D.6 Projecter per Hectare Cash Expenditure on Major Crops Under Policy Alternative III, 1979 . . . . . . . 208 D.7 Projected per Hectare Cash Expenditure on Major Crops Under Policy Alternative III, 1980 . . . . . . . 209 D. 8 Projected per Hectare Cash Expenditure on Major Crops Under Policy Alternative III, 1981 . . . . . . . 210 0.9 Projected per Hectare Cash Expenditure on Major Crops Under Policy Alternative III, 1982 . . . . . . . 211 xii "-«q‘ ma-fl—’~ Table Page D. 10 Projected per Hectare Cash Expenditure on Major er33 Under Policy Alternative III, 1983 . . . ..... 212 D.11 Projected per Hectare Cash Expenditure on Major Crops Under Policy Alternative III, 1984 ........ 213 E.l Projected per Hectare Cash Expenditure on Major erns Under Policy Alternative IV, 1975 . . . . . . . . 214 E.2 Projected per Hectare Cash Ebcpenditure on Major Crops Under Policy Alternative IV, 1976 . . . ..... 215 E. 3 Projected per Hectare Cash Expenditure on IVEjor Crops Under Policy Alternative IV, 1977 . . . . . . 216 E. 4 Projected per Hectare Cash Expenditure on Major Crops Under Policy Alternative IV, 1978 . . . . . . . . 217 E. 5 Projected per Hectare Cash Expenditure on Major Crops Under Policy Alternative IV, 1979 . . . . . . . . 218 E.6 Projected per Hectare Cash Expenditure on Major Crops Under Policy Alternative IV, 1980 . . ...... 219 E.7 Projected per Hectare Cash Expenditure on Major Crops Under Policy Alternative IV, 1981 . ....... 220 E.8 Projected per Hectare Cash Expenditure on Major Crops Under Policy Alternative IV, 1982 . . . . . . . . 221 E.9 Projected per Hectare Cash Expenditure on Major Crops Under Policy Alternative IV, 1983 . . . . . . . . 222 B.10 Projected per Hectare Cash Expenditure on Major Crops Under Policy Alternative IV, 1984 . . . . . . . . 223 Figure 2.1 9.1 9.2 9.3 9.4 9.5 9.6 9.7 LISI‘ OF FIGURES GeneralApproachtotheStudy.. ...... Projected per Hectare Cash Expenditures on Rice Under the Four Policy Alternatives in Taiwan, 1973-1984 . . Projected per Hectare Cash Expenditures on Sugarcane Production in Taiwan Under the Four Policy . Alternatives, 1973-1984 . . . ......... . . . Projected per Hectare Yield of Rice in Taiwan Under Four Policy Alternatives, 1973-1984 . . . . . . . . . Projected per Hectare Yield of Rice in Taiwan Under Four Policy Alternatives, 1973-1984 ..... . . . . Projected per Capita Farm know in Taiwan Under the Four Policy Alternatives, 1973-1984 . . . . . . . Projected Per Capita Nonfarm Income in Taiwan Unchr the Four Policy Alternatives, 1973-1984 ....... Projected Percentages of Farm to Nonfarm Incore Under the Four Policy Alternatives, 1973-1984 . . . . . . . Page 15 137 138 148 149 155 156 157 CHAPTERI INTRODUCTION Taiwan: land, Population and Agriculture Taiwan is the smallest province in China with an area of 35,981 square miles. It lies east of Taiwan Straits that separates Taiwan and Fukien Province of China mainland. Nearly two-thirds of the island province is capped withmountainsand mountainous terrains. Only 25.1 percent of the island province's land is cultivable. land is in short supply. Despite reclamation projects and the use of marginal lands, the absolute number of hectares farmed has seen a steady decline in more recent years. Each cultivable hectare (one hectare equals 2.47 acres) is burdened with feeding nearly 17 persons. The population in Taiwan increased from 3,123,302 in 1930 and 6,090,000 in 1946 to more than 15,441,000 in 1973. Of Taiwan's current population, approximately 38 percent are categorized as agricultural . In 1971 the population density in Taiwan was 412 persons per square kiloteter.1 Despite physical constraints imposed by nature, among other achievements , real national income increased by 348.1 percent from 1952 to 1971, industrial production by 1,249.7 percent and exports by 1,686.7 percent. The current economic growth and industrialization in Taiwan 111: was 2, 22, 223 and 323 persons per square kiloreter in Canada, the 0.5., U.K. and the Netherlands, respectively. 1 stars from the root of an econory that only two decades ago was predom- inantly agricultural. Taiwan ' s agricultural productivity is in turn related to the successful implementation of the Iand Reform Act. land reform in Taiwan was initiated in 1953, and was carried to successful corpletion in 1963. It was based on the triple policies of: 1) release of publicly owned agricultural land; 2) imposition of a .375 rental ceiling; and 3) land to the tiller. The land operated by the Japanese prior to the end of World War II was made public, and was open for sale or for lease to prospective tillers. The objective was to enable tillers to achieve land ownership . The value of the publicly released land was set at two and a half times the value of the major crops harvested, payable in twenty installments within a ten-year period. A ceiling on rentals which an existing landlord could collect from his leasee(s) was set at 37.5 percent of the main crops harvested. The government was authorized to: 1) purchase any agricultural land from landlords whose land holdings exceeded the allowable hectarage; and, 2) to release the publicly purchased land to tillers under the provisions enmerated above. The resulting pride of ownership and economic incentives helped to propel the farmers to intensify their productive efforts and to channel savings to investments on land. With the assistance from the Joint Commission on Rural Reconstruction and the provincial government, farm organizations mushroomed, up to date farming techniques disseminated, Price information made more readily available , cooperatives were formed, and export markets were aggressively sought. And to overcome the Obstacle imposed by limited cultivable land, impetus was given to family style livestock raising and fish culturing on land, and, on the seas, to the rapid build up of the fishing fleet. Agriculture and Other Sectors of the Economy The immediate beneficiaries of land reform were the rural population. Yields increased, multiple cropping indices climbed, production of higher priced agricultural products such as livestock and vegetables expanded, fishery yields multiplied nearly five times in value over the past decade and, most importantly, the per capita disposable incore to the farm person increased. The increased purchasing poner of the farm person increased. The increased purchasing power of the farm person, in turn, helped industrial producers in the form of expanded markets for industrial products. Throughout the years, the motto has been" "Agriculture nurturing industires, and industries assisting agriculture." The agricultural sector of Taiwan population has indeed been nur- turing industries . Aside from having provided the industrial and service sectors with ready markets for the letters ' products, the rural economy has been providing industries with raw materials, imported equipments for industrial production with the foreign exchange earned through the export of agricultural products, and rural Taiwan has been supplying the ever increasing number of " farm bred" industrial workers. The nurtured industries have taken roots and fructified. Over the past nineteen years, industrial production has been increasing at a steady annual rate of 14.7 percent. In the process of economic development, agriculture fell in relative importance within the economic structure. A succession of four-year economic deveth plans has been focusing its attention more on the expansion of secondary and tertiary sectors. Agricultural production over the same past nineteen years saw a meager annual growth rate of 4.8 percent. It does seem logical that, faced with the urgent problem of popula- tion increases on a nonexpandable island, and with the need of economic growth, a structural change in economy from agricultural to industrial was called for. And the transformation has been successful. In the year 1952, agricultural output accounted for 35. 7 percent of the GNP while industries contributed only 17.9 percent in the same year. By 1971, the proportion was almost reversed. Agricultural products and their processed goods assumed 95.2 percent of total export values in 1952. In 1971, the figures slipped to a meager 19.6 percent. The economy as a wnole is indeed budding with life. It revertreless does not negate the tact that tne farm person's share of tne national per capita incore, through increasing in absolute new Taiwan dollar figures, has fallen stead11y. Problems and Implications land tillers witness continued fragmentation of farm lands due to the traditional practice of dividing family wealth—among which is agricultural land-among surviving children, thus causing inefficient use of productive resources. And despite the continued trend of off-farm migration over the past two decades, the area of cultivated land per farm person dwindled from .21 hectare in 1952 to .15 hectare in 1972. Farm machanization designed to raise yields ran into snags due to uneconomic Sizes of farms. The hidden tax on farmers in the form of mandatory crcp— fertilizer barter system, where agricultural products are deliberately kept at depressed prices, added an additional burden. And farm invest- ment incentives declined as capital and savings generated on farm could be more profitably invested in industries or in the service sector. The litany of woes may be continued at considerable length. The root of many problems facing the agricultural producers seems to be the fact that, in the process of economic development, agricultural producers have borne more of the burden and have shared less of the fruits than producers of the industrial and service sectors. And the problem is magnified by the fact that 38 percent of Taiwan's population is agricultural. The increasingly unfavorable income differential between farm and nonfarm people not only limits the purchasing power by farm persons of industrial products, it also curtails the reinvestment ability of persons on farms. Low investment returns from fanning activities relative to industries discourages the flow of capital from the nonfanm to the farm sector. And savings generated from farm people could well seep out of the farm and flow into more lucrative investment opportunities in industries. Low investment on farms means slow increases in agricultural production and low per capita farm income from fanning activities. In the long run it is to depress the purchasing pover of farm population for industrial products, and therefore is undesirable both for the farm and mnfarm economies. With rapid industrialization and increases in per capita incote in Taiwan, farmers still experience depressed agricultural prices relative to the prices of inputs , thus curtailing agricultural investment incentives and further widening the already relatively inequitable incore gap between fanm and nonfarm population in Taiwan. The social implication of low productivities on farm in general cannot be overlooked. With 38 percent of its population still residing on fanm lands, policy makers may not rest with assurance that social problems of significant consequences will not emerge. Also, an increase in the absolute number of persons on the already highly congested farm lands will lead to furtrer lowered labor produc— tivity, directly affecting agricultural production, and indirectly adversely affecting farm incore.2 Need of Favorable Agricultural Policy Measures The need is present to improve the current agricultural scene. The government in Taiwan holds tight and effective control over economic policies. 3 Farm persons are economic beings responsive to economic incentives. Therefore, it is important for tre policy makers to be presented with alternative approaches to improve the lot of 38 percent of Taiwan' 3 population . 2This is a well known and accepted fact among economic planning agencies in Taiwan. Four Year Economic Development Plans and publica- tions from Joint Commission on Rural Reconstruction abound with refer- ences to this. One of the empirical studies showed the following results from small farms in Taiwan: log Y = 1.8431 + .4825 log X (.1785) land (.01 hectare) - .1099 log x (.1254) + .5193 log X 2 (.1454) 1 3 where: X1 = X2 = labor (labor day) X3 = capital (NI'$) and, Y = yield per .01 hectare (kgs.) Source: The Quarterly Journal of land Credit, Vol. IV, No. 4, (September, 1967) (Taiwan: Research Department of Land Bank of Taiwan). 3For instance, the recently abolished crop-fertilizer barter system; the quasi-voluntary lowering of all tourist hotel prices by 10 percent to attract foreign visitors , etc . There is the need to use policy measures: 1) to revitalize and to stimulate the sagging agricultural sector; 2) to increase agricultural yields to:meet increasing demand for farm products from domestic con- sumers and for export.purposes; 3) to narrow the per capita income gap between the farm and nonfarm sectors of Taiwan' 5 population so as to achieve a more equitable distribution of the fruits of economic progress and to:maintain social orderliness; 4) to enhance the purchasing power of farmlpopulaticn.for nonfarmlproducts; 5) to induce farm persons to reinvest their earnings and savings in agriculturally related activities; and, 6) to speed up off farmlmugration both in order to supply the ever increasing demand for nonfarm labor, and to remove high.manrland ratio pressure on scarce cultivable land. This study attempts to provide the decision.maker3‘with.information about some alternative courses of action to satisfy the above needs. General Background for Rice, Sugarcane and livestock Production in Taiwan In this study, the consequences of raising prices of rice, sugarcane and livestock products will be raised to different support levels will be studied to ascertain consequences for agricultural production and the per capita income to the farmlperson. General background for rice, sugarcane and livestock.production is therefore given. Rice is the staple crop in Taiwan and its cultivation is found in all counties of Taiwan. Except in isolated areas, rice can be planted twice annually in all rice regions. The total hectarage cropped during the past have seen a slight decline from 789,075 in 1951 to 776,139 hectares in 1970 while the total rice production has increased from 1,484,792 to 2,462,643 metric tons for the corresponding period. In 1959, the value product from rice was fifty percent of total value pro- ducts from all crops; by 1973 it fell to 44.8 percent. It however has not failed to reveal the importance of rice in Taiwan. Some studies have suggested a possible rice shortage in Taiwan in the future.4 But this reed not occur if policy alternatives III and IV as suggested in this study be considered for adoption. One of the main reasons for the relative slow growth of per hectare yield of rice is reluctance of fanrers to invest more heavily in crop production , and the other major obstacle is the inability to mechanize the fragmented farm lands. Given the price support program for rice, the per hectare cash expenditure on rice production, and correspondingly per tectare rice yield can be expected to increase significantly.5 In terms of export values sugarcare plantation is the most impor- tant crop in Taiwan. Aside from the fact that a very large percentage of Taiwan farmers engage in sugarcane production (hence the possibility of more equitable distribution of the benefits from price support program) 4Chen, Cheng—Sang, An Economic and Social Geography, Taipei: Fu Min Geographic Institute of Economic Developmentfl963, p. 292; and Chang, 'Ie Tsue, Long Term Projections of Supply, Demand and Trade for Selected Agricultural Productsfiin Taiwan, Taipei: 'I‘fieTiesearcthstitute of Agri- cultural Economics, NationalTaiwan University, 1970, p. 84. 'Jhe latter study suggested that there would be very little surplus rice left for export purposes by 1980, while the former suggested a down right rice shortage, even for domestic consumptim by 1968. The feared rice shortage did not occur in 1968. But as for 1980, with the hectares of rice plan- tatim decreasing far more rapidly than projected by the second study above (1970-1973 period) a rice shortage could occur. This present study sug- gested that, if the production relationships hold, and if either policy alternatives III or IV be adopted, no such rice shortage need occur. 5See subsection on "per hectare yield" possibility in this chapter. sugar export has traditionally found more ready , international markets than other crops. Since 1949, more than 80 percent of Taiwan's sugar production has been sold directly on the international market. Domestic consumption accounted for only 10 percent of the total sugar produced, while the remaining portion of approximately 10 percent is sold to local canning industries , most of whose products also find their way to foreign markets. With most of its exports going to Southeast Asia, Far East, Middle and Near East regions and countries , increased production of sugarcane resulting from price support programs in Taiwan is not likely to suffer from shortage of international markets. Livestock products are the third agricultural item suggested for price support. Unlike some livestock producers in sote economically more developed countries, most Taiwan' 8 livestock producers are farmers operating on very small scale, utilizing otherwise unproductive labor such as the aged, the children and some woren. Backyards of rural dwellings are the breeding ground of hogs , whose value product in 1973 made up 96.0 percent of the value of all livestock slaughtered. The large quantity of livestock supplied in Taiwan is attributable solely to the widespread hog raising practice on farms. With each farm family setting off a corner of the backyard, hogs scrounge and mire in the mud for anything digestable in sight thus converting unusable "resources" into valuable meat products . Sweet potato is the principal feed supple- ment to residual " resources. " Sweet potato production therefore also reeds to increase to expand livestock production and, as Tables 5.5, 6.4, 7.4, and 8.4, reSpectively show, do so with the price support program for rice and sugarcane production . 10 Study (bjectives The objectives of this study are: l) 'I'o construct the hitherto unavailable time series data on per hectare cash expenditure for the production of nine major crops in Taiwan, 1959-1972. 2) To establish projective relationships for yields of the nine major crcps. Then, to predict the consequences of alternative production possibilities for the years 1973—1984. 3) To project through time four alternative per capita farm incore streams and four resulting farm/nonfarm incote ratios for the years 1973-1984. 4) And help make recormendations concerning ways of closing the incote gap between the farm and nonfarm populace through price support programs for farm producers , thus encouraging "plow bac " investments by farmers for agricultural production. chpe of Stuck With givei data, resources and time, this is a one man effort to produce a general picture of future agricultural production possibilities in Taiwan under alternative pricing and investment policies and prograts . It does not purport to be an exhaustive or intricate study of Taiwan' 5 agriculture. The main concerns of this study are: 1) projections of agricul- tural yields and farm income streams through time; and, 2) the analysis of projected results . Structural meanings are derived mainly from structural identities and accounting corponents . Little claim is made for the structural meanings in the interpretation of the regression equations set forth in this study. 11 Focus is on the predictive power of the entire system of regression equations, integrated with structural identities and accounting corponents , culminating in the recursive generation of criterion variables and yielding projected alternative incote streams for the farm population. In the predictive equations , consideration is given to the multiple correlation coefficients and statistical tests for Etions, but no special attention will be given to testing the parareters of estimated coefficients from the independent variables , whose parareters being of questioable structural significance. Emphasis is on projecting how some of the more important perfor- mance variables-—such as low yields on farm and widening per capita income gap between farm and nonfarm populations—will vary with alterna- tive comodity price policies and programs . Justifications and Constraints The reasons for this particular study are multiple. They include the following: 1) Social stability is one of the major concerns of the government in Taiwan. Population growth cmtinues. land is limited. The man-land ratio has steadily been increasing. There is the need to raise agri- cultural production to meet the increasing demand. There is the need to guarantee the 38 percent of Taiwan' 8 population on farm that increased production fl mean an increased incote stream and that increased farm production and incore stream 3.1.1]; give them a more equitable share in the fruits of economic successes than before. There is the need to recapture the incentives and pride which the 12 farm persons entertained after the land reform. This study intends to explore the alternative ways of meeting the above needs . 2) Goverment publications have frequently indicated a widening of the per capita income gap bemeen the farm and nonfarm sectors of the population. However, to date only intermittent surveys on the subject have been made, and there is an absence of contiguous time series data. This study will construct the needed data to estimate the per capita farm and nmfam incore which both approximate the survey data and run oontiguously through time for more meaningful comparison. . 3) Goals have been set by the government for increased agricultural productivity on a yearly basis. No analytical explanations are given as to how we factor of production may affect--positively or otherwise, and to what exte1t—-t1e yield of a given cr0p or farm product. This study, therefore, intends to give the above topics sore substance for more meaningful discussions. And, 4) The policy makers, intent upon raising farm productivity and closing the farm-nonfarm per capita incote gap, can make use of study results that: i) point to the alternative consequences of various agricultural comodity price policy options; ii) analyze their feasi- bility; and, iii) explain their reasonableness. Limitations on this study which make it far from being ideal are mmerms. To mare a few: 1) Unavailability of detailed, consistent and corprehensive input data on subsectors of agriculture in Taiwan. 2) Its quite limited number of observations from available data for a time series study.6 6Fourteen to fifteen observations, depending on the variables in question - 13 3) Absence of detailed well established policy measures with respect to agricultural developtent in the future . Given the above cmstraints, this study atterpts to make use of edsting information to offer sore information of value in choosing along four future alternatives . Order of Presentation Chapter II will first detail the general methodological approach taken in this study, the quantitative techniques used, the importance of descriptive and projective information, and how government policy pro- nouncetents are to be incorporated in the study. A discussion on the compilation of existing data, their sources, categories , and the approximation of needed yet unavailable data, especially time series data on the per hectare cash expenditure for the prediction of major crops, will be detailed in Chapter III. Chapter IV presents results from regression equations and structural identities . Predicted consequeices for the four alternative policy measures are given in Chapters V through VIII. An analysis of policy coisequences and implications is presented in Chapter IX. Appendices containing hitherto unpresented tables are included. CHAPTER II GENERAL APPRQAQi AND METI‘HODOIIISICAL ISSUES Chapter I outlined l) Taiwan's agricultural background; 2) the problems facing agricultural production; 3) objectives, scope, constraints and justification of this study. In this chapter, the following sub- topics will be discussed: 1) the general approach to this study; 2) projective equations; 3) structural identities and accounting corponents; 4) recursive generation of criterion variables; 5) policy values from goverment directives; 6) tests of dojectivity in this study; and, 8) arrival at recormendations and conclusions . General Approach to this Study The geeral approach taken in this study is that of a problem 30le process. This study concerns itself only with the initial steps 01‘- the process while leaving the latter ones to decision makers. More Specifically, this study: 1) defines the problem; 2) observes facts; 3) analyzes study results; and, 4) examines alternatives and makes rexhumendations, while leaving to policy makers tte remaining steps of : 5) aCtually deciding on the objectives to be achieved; 6) effectuating actions to be taken; and, assuming responsibility for the actions decided uPom. 'Jl're general approach taken by this study is explained by the £011(“Ming figure . 14 15 Problem Definition with interactions with resource persons . Observation of Facts with interactions with resource persons Analysis of Results with interactions with resource persons l Prescriptive Possibilities with interactions with resource persons Output Figure 2.1. General approach to the study. Attexuding to steps ore through for, interaction takes place between the in‘7es.tigatcr and the resource persons rather than between the former and tile decision makers. This does not exclude the future possibility or need to interaction with wis ion makers for refinerent of the study and for possible adaptation or adoption of the study recommendations . 16 Knowledge gained through interactions will be incorporated into the model building and refining processes as well as into the interpretation of study results. From inception of tle study to its corpletibn, continu- ous reformulation of concepts with respect to the problem and with respect to observation of facts and analysis of results will be based on the new information and new knowledge gained through interactions . Interactive process of conducting this study is exerplified in the figure, where each step within tlre process is subject to interactions and feed- backs until the result satisfactorily achieves objectives of this study. The problem is defined in Chapter I . Cbservation of facts takes the form of studying and asserbling available information/data for the purpose of modeling predictive equations. This step is discussed in Chapter III. The third step—analysis of results--includes: 1) dis- cussing results from regression equations and accounting identities for predictive purposes; and, 2) analyzing projected results from alternative policy measures. Chapter IV is concerned with the former, while Chapters V through IX present the latter . Data Cateppries The data to be used in the projective equations and structural identities can be grouped under four geeral categories: state, inter- mediate, policy and performance. State variables are variables whose values, under given conditions , do not change "eratically" over time. In other words, changes observed in a time series study of a state variable are "stable." They follow a determinable pattern under normal conditions. For instance, the total area of agricultural planting is stable over time; 17 its variation from one year to another is either negligible, or in general predictable as a functim of time. Policy variables are variables whose values change over time in accordance with actios taken by policy makers. For instance, the level of price support for a given crop is a policy determined variable. Its value might vary from one year to another, and is determined on the basis of policy objectives. The third category of variables includes the intermediate variables whose values are generated within the system from relevant state and/or policy variables , and whose values are in turn etployed to project performance variables. For example, the per hectare yield of rice in time period "t" is a function of per hectare cash expenditure on rice in "t", which is in turn a function of the policy determined price of rice in "t-l". Per hectare rice yield as an intermediate variable is then Ised, together with rice hectarage crcpped, to corpute the rice produc- tion for time period "t". In conjunctim with price of rice, rice production is again used as an intermediate variable to compute total value product of rice in "t". Total value product of rice production is eventually used to corpute the contribution of rice to total farm income which is a perfomance variable. A performance variable is , therefore , a depeident variable generated for a given time period within the system from the intermedia , state and policy variables. Perforrance variables measure the conditions, sitUatiors or things to which goodness or badness are attached; as such they are normative . 18 Projective Equations This study projects the per capita incote conseqrences of four policy alternatives for the farm people in Taiwan. These alternative income consequences are the result of : 1) alternative price policy measures for selected cm; 2) alternative per hectare cash expenditures by farters; and, 3) alternative crop production possibilities. Income sources to the farm person from farming activities consist of; 1) incore from crop production; and 2) incore from livestock produc- tion. We need first to determine the crop production possibilities. Tie basic projective equation for crop production is: Yi = f (Xi) for i = 1,. . .,9 and t = 1959,. . .,1984 t t where: Y = the per hectare yield of cropi, X=t11eperrectarecashependitirefortreproductimofcropi. There could be as many possible levels of per hectare yield of a giveicrcpastl'erearelevelsofperhectarecashecpeiditure. The latterisafunctionofitsperhectarevalueproductint-l. In otherwords, itisafunctionoftheperhectareyieldint-l, andof crop price in t - l. ' Inanideal studyofthisnature, thesystemwouldbecotposedof structural equations which would the) be transferred into reduced form for estimation. After transforration of these estimates back into the Parmeters of the structural equations, the projected values of depeIdent variables would then be incorporated into structural identities . In this study, however, the projective equations set forth are 19 at structural. The reasons for not developing these projective equations in the structural form are: l) the many variables and relatiorships arongthemreededtowrite structural equations arenotwell known; and, 2) even if all the variables and relationships needed to write the equatiols structurally were known, much of the data needed to estimate their coefficients is unavailable. A simple example is that the per hectare labor input for the production of a given crop has never been recorded. . We ggul_d_ make believe the needed variables for these structiral projective equations are known, and that the data needed for the estima- tion of their coefficients coild be approximated. However, such estimated results would be misleading. It is better, therefore, to recognize and accezt the shortcomings enmerated and to make the projections with available inforration rather than to conduct a research that aids in misleading results. In this study, therefore, no claim is made that the projective equatiois set forth are structural. Due to the lack of detailed krowledge and data needed to cmstruct structural equations, the projective equations set forth in this study do not weave into a system of "n" equatios with "n" unkncwns which can be reduced. Rather, the projective equations set forth in this study are probably partially reduced forms of unspecified and mknown structural equations . Each of tress equations is distinct, and the endogenous variables are expressed as functions of exogerous, lagged endogenous or policy variables. Their strength is not 50 finch in their individually estimated parameter as in their nomonetary parameter and in having the estimated results fed into structural 20 identities in a later stage. The projective equations and structural identities enployed in this study did project variables satisfactorily. 1' Thus, we proceed with the discussion and presentation of the pre- dictive equations need in this study. The first equations to be deter- mnined for projective purposes are those for the per hectare yield of major crops. Instead of a lump sum calculation and projection of total agricultural value product, the per hectare physical yield of each individual crop is estimated from logarithmic regression equations. Thereafter, for each given year, the per hectare yield of an individual crop, together with its unit price and harvest hectarage will provide the total valLe product of that particular crop.2 The summation of all such individually estimated crop yields , together with their respective unit prices and harvested areas, gives a total value product of crOpping activities for that year. 'lhis soured total value of agricultural products were estimated directly. This is so because the errors in individual estimates will probably cancel out each other's effect and produce a relatively smaller error on the aggre- gate final value product. This procedure also allows the inclusion, use lFrederick V. Waugh, when contrasting the practical usefulness of 015 technique and the more corplicated models for projective purposes has the following to say: ". . .least square estimates are unbiased, and that the basic structural true equations give biased estimates of tie expected value of the dependent variable." (Frederick V. Waugh. Econo- metrica, Vol. XXIX, No. 3, (July 1961) , p.386.) Trygve Haavelmo showed that '. . .if onewantstlreenpectedvalue onl givenX, it is the structnral aquatiors that is biased, and the least squares equation that is unbiased." Ibid., p. 388. 2 for i = 1,. . .,9 and t = 1959,. . .,1984. See sniosection on structural identities in this chapter. Prices are policy determined whereas the beetares cropped are a function of time. 21 and analysis of more inforraticn than if estimation of the total value product of farming were done directly. The predictive equations set forth in this study embrace two sub- sectors of agriculture: crops and livestock production. The basic equations fitted for predictive purposes are: a) Crops:3 logYi =1og ai+bi log Xi fori=l,. . .,9 t t andt 1959,. . .,1984 where: Y = per hectare yield of crop, and, X = per hectare cash expenditure. Under policy alternative I , the per hectare cash expenditure is a function of time. Under policy alternatives II through IV, the per hectare cash expenditure is estimated by the following equation (see tables in Appendices C, D, and E): Pit / Pat t-l t-l where: Zi = unadjusted per hectare cash expenditure for crop i, t X. = Yi / Y , where: Xi is a ratio, and, Ya = avera e 1t t-l at-l t t-l per hectare cash expenditure in t - l (NTS/hectare) Ya = calculated from the following equation: t 3Corbinations of many other possible predictive variables have been tested for the variations in the dependent variables . Due to one reason 01? another, the above listed format appears to be most satisfactory. For test results, see Chapter IV. Chapters III, V, VI, VII and VIII explain fibre fully how the per hectare cash expenditures are estimated under the four: policy alternatives. 9 9 9 z z 2 P. - Q. - Y = k=l j=1 i=1 1t 3t Hkt at gnk k:1 t for i, j and k = 1,. . .,9 respectively and t = 1959. . .,1984 where: Pi = price of crop i (NT$/l,000 kgs.) t Qj = per hectare yield of crop j (1,000 kgs./hectare) and, t “k = number of hectares cropped for crop k, where Hk is a t function of time. Pi = price of crop i in time period t (NT$/l,000 kgs.) t a P = average price of all crops in t (NT$/1,000 kgs.) a and t B = the constant term and the estimated coefficient from the equation yt = f(VPa 1) t— where: ya = the average per hectare cash expenditure in time t period t (NT$/hectare) , and VP = the average per hectare value product in time period t - l (NB/hectare) Pi from 1959 to 1973 is from recorded data whereas from 1974 through t 1984 is policy determined. Pa is computed via the following equation: t 9 9 Z Z P. ' Q. P = j=1 i=1 1t 3t at 9 2 Q- j=1 3t for i and j = 1,. . .,9, respectively, and t= 1959,. . .,1984 where: Qj = the quantity of crop j (1,000 kgs.) Pi = the price of crop i (MS/1,000 kgs.) The above equations yield the unadjusted per hectare cash expendi- ture for a crop (see, e.g., Table C.2 in Appendix C). To reach the adj listed per hectare cash expenditure, the following process is carried wt: 23 zi - HJ t t , 9 9 Hjt Yat Ht 2 X Z. _ j=1 i=1 t Xit Hi t foriandj=1,. . .,9 andt= 1959,. . .,1984 where: Xit = adjusted per hectare cash expenditure for crop i (MS/hectare) . Zit = unadjusted per hectare cash expenditure for crop i (MS/hectare) , Hjt = hectares crepped for crop j (Hectare) Ya = average per hectare cash expenditure (NTs/hectare) , And this average per hectare cash expenditure is in turn obtained via: Ya = [(OL+ B (VPa )] for t= 1959,. . .,1984 t t-l where: Ya = average per hectare cash expenditure in t (M's/hectare) t VPa = the average per hectare value product in t. (N'I'$/hecta.re) t-l b) Livestock: (i)' log Y = log a + b log Xt-l for t = 1959,. . .,1984 where: Y = livestock slaughtered (head) and, X = natiornal per capita incone t-l (NT$) (11) loth=loga+b1 logxlt+b2 logx2t for t = 1959,. . .,1984 where: Y = production of poultry fowls (heads) price of poultry (NTS) and, x1 x2 = total population (persons) (iii) log Y log a = b log Xt—l 24 for t = 1959,. . .,1984 where: Y = production of milk (tons), and, X = national per capita incore (iv) log Y = log a + b log Xt-l for t = 1959,. . .,1984 where: Y = egg production (1,0005) and, X = nurber of fowl. Structural Identities and Accounting Components Having detailed the nature of the projective equations used in this study, and having outlined the projective equations for crop and livestock subsectors, we may now discuss in greater detail the operation and role of structural identities and accounting corponents . The identities and accounting components, and their relationships are presented below: 9 ml 5 1:1 Pit - oi - Hi for i = 1,. . .,9 and t = 1959,. . .,1984 t t where: TVPl = total value product of nine major crops (NT$) P = poliq determined price for crop i (N'I'S) Q = quantity of per hectare yield (kgs.) and, H = hectares cropped.4 TVPZETVPi +TVPj fori=1,. . .,9 andt=l959,. . .,1984 t t j 1,. . .,n 4long Term Projections of Supply, Demand and Trade for Selected Mricmmaljrdmmjn Taiwan uses a trend approach in determining future hectarages of 1nd1v1duaI crops , with minor adjustments . In this study. the trend approach is adopted for hectarages cropped in the future, with minor adjustments made if appropriate. That is , hecatres cropped Perfllajorcropisafunctionof time. 25 where TVP2 = total value product of all crops (NT$) TVPi = TVPs of the nine major crops, and TVPj = TVPs of all minor crops (NT$) 4 TVP3 E iél Pi - Qi for i = 1,. . .,4 and t = 1959,. . .,1984 t t where: TVP3 = TVP of livestock products, P = price of livestock item (livestock slaughter,:milk, eggs, pxmflrry) (NT$) and, Q = quantity of livestock produced. 2 E Z TVP4t k=l TVPkt for k l and 2 (crops and livestodk and, t 1959,. . .,1984 where: TVP4 = total value product from agriculture (NT$) TVPagt - TCt for t = 1959,. . .,1984 Yf = per capita farmnincome from farming activities in NTS/year P = farm population t, TVPa = total value product from.farming and livestock production 9 (ms) and. TC = total cost of agricultural production. Y tft ft I-< m + Y for t = 1959,. . .,1984 nft 26 where: Yt = total per capita incone for a farm person in NTS/year, f f = per captia farm incore from agricultural production in t NTS/year; and, Y Y nf = per captia income to the farm person from nonfarming activities t (NT$) (Yt ’ tht’ ' Pft Y E + Y for t = 1959,. . .,1984 n P t t nf t vdnere: Ynt = per capita incore of a nonfarm person in NTS/year, Yt = national per capita incore (NT$) th = per capita incore of a farm person in NTS/year and, t Pf , P nf = total farm and nonfarm population, respectively. t t And finally, Y EY -Y fort=l959,. . .,1984 at nt tft where: Yd = per capita incone difference between farm and nonfarm person in M‘s/year, Ynt = per capita incore of a nonfarm person (NT$) and, th = per capita incone of a farm person.5 t In view of the above identities and accounting corponents, due to the various policy determined farm commodity prices and corresporndingly 5Besides the differences in terms of absolute NTS, the per capita farm incore as a percentage of that of a nonfarm person's will be given for cotparative purposes. 1 27 their alternative yie ld/production responses , there will be correspond- ingly many alternative total value products . Thus , via projection equations , structural identities and account- ing components, the possible trends in per capita inccme streams to the farm and nonfarm persons in Taiwan and the differences in their incane streane may be projected through time. Comparisons will be made and analyzed. Conclusions and reccmnendations will be developed and presented inChapter IX. Recursive Generation of Criterion Variables The projective equations set forth in this study run recursively by virtue of: l) recursivity in the equations; and 2) exogenously determined policy variables. Both of these points are demonstrated in the canputaticmal process and is described in Chapter III and Chapters V through VIII. the nature of recursivity in this study may first be explained in the following manner. In Chapter VI through VIII of this study, the per hectare yield of rice, for instance, is a fmetion of its per hectare cash expenditure. 'me endogenms variable—per hectare yield of rice—is determined one crop at a time, year by year. The per hectare yield of rice in time period I is determined fran the value of its per hectare cash expendi- ture in the corresponding period, independent of the other endogenous variables . Its solution " then appears in the second endogenous variable" by virtue of the following link: For instance, under price policy alternative III, 1974's per I'ECtare yield of rice is a function of 1974's per hectare cash expen- diture on rice production. However, 1974's per hectare cash expenditure 28 on rice production is a function of the following three factors: 1) The M in the unit price of rice from t-l to t (i.e. 1973 to 1974) relative to the province's average change in price for all crops for that corresponding time period. That ratio as computed is l. 005. That means, relative to the changes in the prices of other crops frat: 1973 to 1974, the price of rice had a more rapid increase. This more rapid increase positively affects 1974's per hectare cash expenditure a1 rice production. This is made clear in conjunction with the following factor. 2) The second factor affecting the per hectare cash expenditure on rice production in _l_9_z_t_l_ is the ratio of per hectare cash expenditure for the production of rice to the province's average per hectare cash expenditure for all crops in £9111. In 1973, that ratio was .792. That neans, given 1973-1974's relatively more rapid increase in the price of rice (1.005) than that of other crops, and given the existing £51312 of per hectare cash expenditure on rice production to that of the province 's average in E7; (.792) , the gal-:19 of per hectare cash expenditure on rice _t_g that of the province's average in 1974 will relatively increase. The product of 1.005 x .792 is .796. Which means, due to the price Changes frcm 1973 to 1974, and due to the existing ratio of per hectare cash expenditure on rice to that of the province's average in l_9_7_§, that ratio in 1974 is increased from .792 to .796. 3) The third factor affecting £9113 per hectare cash expenditure on rice production is the province' s average per hectare value product in 1973. That means, if the per hectare value product in t - l (1973) was high, then the producer would have a greater incentive to invest more 29 heavily in t (l_9_7_3) . Conversely, if the value product in t-l (1973) was low, the farmer would be less prepared and less capable of investing heavily in fanm production. In our example of rice production, given the average per hectare value product in t-l (1973) , the 1974's per hectare expenditure is NT$ 9,926, a net increase of NTS 2,342 over 1973. This is so because the average per hectare value product in l_9_7_3 witnessed a significant increase. This N'I‘S 9,926—(the 1974's average per hectare cash expenditure)--is then multiplied by the ratio of .796 mentioned above (the ratio of per hectare cash expenditure on rice production to that of the province's average) which yields a NT$ 7,901. That means, w per hectare cash expenditure on rice production is also a function of 1973's average per hectare value product. To summarize, time period t's per hectare cash expenditure on a given crop is a function of: l) the change in the unit price of crop from t-l to t relative to the province' 5 average change in price for all crops for that corresponding period; 2) the £5919 of per hectare cash expendittme for the production of crop to the province's average per hectare cash expenditure for all crops in _t_-_l; and, 3) the province's average per hectare value product in El. Instead of having all equations in a statistically recursive fashion, we e'tploy structural identities resulting in lockup tables, Where values of dependent variables-per hectare yield of crop i—in "E" depend on. values of independent variables in "_t_-_l_", where the policy detenmined alternative price levels of agricultural commodities set the reclmsive process in motion. The function is not so much in statistical regression form as in a mathematical, computational form. 30 Policy Variables from Government Directives Under the subsection "Data Categories" in Chapter II, it was pointed out that among the variables used in this study are policy variables whose quantitative "values" through time are determined on the basis of actions taken by decision makers. An example of a policy variable is the level of price support, whose quantitative "value" is set by the policy makers. The decision to support the prices of certain major crqos, for instance, is based on the following: 1) value. concepts in the ethical or normative sense; 2) positive concepts; and, 3) a decisioi rule. These points are briefly discussed in the following Paragraphs. In the early 1970's, for instance, the policy makers in Taiwan became more and more aware of the widening per capita income gap between the farm and nonfarm sectors of Taiwan's population. Though the per capita nonfarm income was increasing rapidly, the per capita farm income was legging farther and farther behind. Considering the fact that 40 Percent of Taiwan' 5 population was then agricultural, such unequitable distribution of national income was considered wrong and bad. As a result, the policy makers initiated measuree to correct this undesirable situation. A price support program for major crops was introduced. ”113 measure is not reflected in a statistical analysis of past data and theJl‘efore such information needs be incorporated into a study to make futul‘e projections of per capita farm income more accurate. However, to know that a price support program for agricultural Wties has been initiated is not sufficient information. We must also know the extent of government price support so that the quantitative 31 "value" of policy determined variables may be ascertained and incorporated into the projective equations. It is the policy makers' role to determine the levels of price support. And the policy makers need to resort to both positive and normative concepts; for the future is built on the present and the past. What has been and what is must be considered when endeavoring to guide the economy to what "should be." Having envisioned positively and normatively what has been and what is, the policy makers must agree on a decision rule to arrive at a specific quantitative "value" for a given policy variable. A comon dencminator for reaching a specific decision is to avoid bad and achieve 900d- This study does not purport to scrutinize hc_Jw_ the policy makers arrived at a specific decision but wit has been decided upon. More Specifically, this study uses the alternative quantitative "value" of POD-CY detennined variables—Le. , price support levels for major crops--to project the resulting production and income conseqmnces to the farm POpfllation. Because of the "nontrend" consequences to future farm production and fUtlJIe per capita farm incore as a result of policy determined agricultural price support measures, information on policy determined quantitative "values" of policy variables must accordingly be incorporated in the projective process to make projections more approximately reflect fUture reality. Tests of Gajectivity If a study is to make any contribution to the field of inquiry, both the investigator and the knowledge generated thereby need pass the 32 test of objectivity. One definition of objectivity is as follows: Applied to an investigator , the ideal of an investigator being unbiased, fair, impartial and accurate in the sense that he is willing to subject his concepts, both normative and nonnormative, to tests as to their objectivity. Applied to a concept, a concept is regarded as objective if it has thus far passed the tests of (l) logical consistence with previously accepted concepts and with other new concepts based on experience, (2) clarity, and (3) workability.6 The key to the investigator' 5 being objective in his approach is his willingness to submit his conceptual framework to impartial testing. He is willing to reject or to revise a concept that does not measure up to the above definition of objectivity. His general philosophy towards inVestigation is: attachment, but detachable. He is detachable in the Sense that evidence supersedes personal feelings and preconviction. 7 It is within the framework of the above definition and descriptioi that this inquiry attempts to maintain objectivity. The use of statis- tical and econometric tools and accounting indentities on the basis of eidsting data and accepted economic thinking-within the confine of feasibility due to constraints mentioned in Chapter I—is impersonal en(nigh to keep subjectivity from entering into the picture. Subjection 0f initial study results to statistical analysis and to revision, or pOssible rejection, are part of tie procedure in this study. No future reality is available to test the accuracy of predictions about the future \ 6Korean Agricultural Sector Analysis and Recommended Development Sitratgglsfi , - . ean grlcu ur ec r \h:aSt Lansing, Michigan: Michigan State University), pp. 34—35. 7Johnson, Glenn L. and Lewis K. Zerby, What Economists Do About yalLBS. (East Iansing, Michigan: Michigan State University), pp. 222-227. 33 by following alternative policies and programs . But verification or the establishment of credibility for estimates may be made in light of the following passage: First, the nature of the projections and simulation must be clearly understandable to potential users or they will not be accepted; and second, corpetent men experienced in the field . . .must be convinced that the design, policy, or program being simulated will actually work more or less according to the model used. 8 These tests will be embodied in the following chapters when evaluating the prediction equations and identities to be constructed, men analyzing and evaluating prediction results , and wten formulating recommendations and drawing conclusions. Steps will be taken to insure mat: l) the nature of the predictions is understandable to potential users , and 2) that knowledgable persons agree to the workability of Prescriptions which might be based on them. Arrival at Recommendations and Conclus ions The projected results will be used in the following manner in Order to reach recomendations and conclusions . Several alternative pt>1icy strategies will be investigated. There are four alternative crop price policy measures resulting ill four sets of possible yields and revenues . The resulting per capita income differences between the farm and nonfarm sectors of the populaticm in Taiwan will tten be compared. Since the per capita farm incore was Qlly 28.2 percent that of a nonfarmer in 1972, we may immediately deter- 1mhie whether any of tie price policies perpetuates the widening per capita 8Johnsoi and Zerby, Ibid., p. 226. 34 income gap between these two sectors of Taiwan's population. If so, it can immediately be considered undesirable (wrong) , and a recomendation made that that price policy not be accepted. If ore of the possible per capita farm income streams only maintains the status gm of income distribution (i.e. aromd 28.2 percent for the farm person as in 1972) then that crop price policy measure is likewise to be considered undesirable. If an income stream promises to narrow the incore gap, then the time needed to close the income gapcan be estimated. If the rate is too Slow, then this crop price policy alternative will likewise be considered unciesirable . Attempts will then be made to arrive eventually at a Possible per capita farm income stream that is: l) feasible; 2) reasonable; 3) realizable within a short period of time; and, 4) capable of narrowing the gap of per capita income streams between the farm and the nonfarm p 560933 35333qu twice. I w 5530 .0 95:00 N m EBHOU 395m I N. 5530 .NSTSS 30> honoree senator ou8oe Eon cot flower I o 538 .v SSHOU m EBHOU 3589 I m 55:00 .manImmmH .30». mxoonuooy Hognaaeboo coins. I v 5530 N 5530 m H 5.300 meadow I m 55.30 team I N 9:300. .manImmma .mao> .moflgm'mcdoox 280m snow ebuw unommm I ._.. EBHOU 30395005 00 803 memK ammeeJ 2.0.3 mmmém Hem. mmm.mm ~35 rims 03.3 mmméa ma~.0~ NEH omo.0 SeéomJ 2:13 www.mm Sm. 0mo.- msod moi gel: mmmd 03.3. 2.3 000.0 omadmmrm 03.3 www.mm «mm. mmmém HRK 0.3a $.13 swim 0Nm.- 2.3 03.0 26.30; 03.3 30.0w can. 0.013 Hmmfi ~63 mafia v35 3me «.03 mend Nnm§mm4 mmo.o N213 mmm. 2.0.3 mSK «.mma :93. coed mHmJN 33 33.0 30$va vmmK 30.x. mam. >373 35.0 «K3 2.0.3 HNmK 03.0w s03 ~36 wmsfivmé mmmc. smoém 0am. magma 93...... 063 ~0m.3 mamc. 2.0.ma 003 mam; Hmmémmd :90 wm0.~m mom. 3.0.3 0m0.m v63 35.3 mom.0 30.: m0m~ :04 mmvémvé 3W0 moimm «om. 03.: ovm.m 053 25.3 mmm.m 30.3 «03 ovoé $1244 m0m.m 02.3 omm. 30.3 ommfi ~2va 33.3 80.0 30.3 M03 as; 0: .mva om0 .m mm0 .5 mmm . mom .3. mam .m m .03 mew .m mmmé vmm .3 ~03 vom.m 89mg...“ 03.0 02.: mmm. $5.3 mmm.m mama ~0m.3 30$ Hmmfia H03 80.». nouns; mg .m 813 awn. :93. 0cm .m 0.2: 21.5 emmfi www.ma 003 main $5...”an 2.90 95.3.. 5mm. 3.12 smmfi méwa 0om.o was; 2%.: mmma m e2 838: IIIIIIIIm sz SdafiIII .o, .5. £50on r L." E... III ..III III a :3 a: 5 a: E .8 A 5 _ a: _ 5 fl 3 a mmouu _ _ w u _ twosome no.3: macho . 8135 . obduaocoafl m _ 05mg _ Con—3 ooh: goo: won .30 on» .30 no.9: ufi 00 ououo uoflmz _ 83nd _ ouster . rmcu . m 30.5 .80 . wooed one 9:2. menu.” as»: auto 00 twosouo 859695 93 05 EC; _ c.2125 . bot F0: _ cave: _ xotcH i 0.33.5273 . concourse . Iofixwxm sumo mmmufl>< at? 8500: no.“ quU H309 wag H509 hung: _ Hesse/Om _ palmetto use a «scenario .. Chung: no; _ xUOquZJ n 0509.— .umm Home» ' l nil! l l lll'l (III. lil 'Ill'll'itnilllll [I llil'i't . Ii: Iilllli. NROfiIOWOH s—zu3flmh CH Oguflmvc&fi SW60 CHUUUUZ I506“ mTfluhg/w Hag HOw Qua 30>th 0H.” ”HQ“? 40 is spent for livestock and feeds. That leaves NI‘$ 14,189 as operating eiqaenses for each hectare. 2) Cropping index for 1972 being 1.826, then NT$ 14,189 {- 1.826 = NTS 7, 771 which is the operating expenditure per cropped hectare for 1970.7 3) The year' s revenue per cropped hectare-excluding revenue from other sources, such as livestock raising—being NT$ 21,932, then the input-output ratio for crop raising is NI‘$ 7,771 + 21,932 = .354. 4) Fran Taiwan Agricultural Yearbook, 1971, the summed total value products of these major crops for 1970 is NT$ 28,774,981,000. 5) Since the input-output ratio for 1970 as calculated is .354, then - 354 x 28,774,981,000 = NT$ 10,186,343,274 which is the _tgt_al_ operating W for the major crops in Taiwan, for the year 1970. 6) Again, fmn Taiwan Agricultural Yearbook, 1971 we sun up the total hectares for these crops for 1970 which is 1,528,120. And divide the latter into NI‘$ 10,186,343,274, we obtain NT$ 6,666. That means the aVerage per hectare cash expenditure for the major crops in Taiwan, for the year 1970, is NT$ 6,666. The next step in the process is to a§proocimate what proportion of that NI‘$ 6,666 is Spent for the production of each of the crops for 1970. \ 7Cropping index refers to the nunber of times a hectare of land is clipped each year. The figure 1.826 in the text means that, for Taiwan province as a whole, each cultivated hectare of land was cropped 1.826 tines in the year 1972. 41 Allocation of Cash Eernditure to Major Crggs: 1970 A province wide survey was made for the input-output relationship for major crops in Taiwan in 1970 which produced data on per hectare 8 Operating expenditures for the major crops . In Table 3.2, per hectare cash expenditures for crop (column 1) is Imltiplied by the number of hectares of that crop for the year (colum 2) . Total cash expenditures for these major crops are found in oolunn 3. The sun total of cost for raising these crops (bottom of oolunn 3) is then divided by the sum of total hectares cropped (bottan 0f colum 2) to arrive at the province' 5 average per hectare cash expenditure, i.e., f—gzg‘lgfisfilggm = NT$ 15,750/hectare. Having arrived at the above figure for the province average per beet-are cash expenditure for 1970,9 the per hectare cash expenditure per lI'E-lspective crop is divided by that average to arrive at a series of ratios as follows: NI‘$ 11,532/15,750 = .731 NT$ 12,976/15,750 = .823 Rice : Sweet Potato : \ f. 8See Table 3.2 on the following page. Note, the cash expenditure J‘911-1‘es from this survey report does not square with those oarputed from Table 3.1. Synchronization of these data will be discussed shortly. 9According to data from Report on Taiwan' 3 Pgricmltural Input-Output S‘nl‘lexy, 1970, all items are priced according to market values. It is C%".-fferent fran figures frcm Taiwan Agricultural Yearbook where all bégures are based on fann level prices. Synchronization of the mo will made. 42 Table 3.2. Adjusted per Hectare Cash Expenditure for the Production of Major Crops in Taiwan, 1970 (k'cp Unadjusted Hectares Columns Ratio of Per Adjusted Per Hectare Cropped 1 x 2 Hectarei Ex- Per Hectarei Cash penditure to Cash Expenditure the Province's Expenditure Average Per Hectare Cash Bcpenditure (l) (2) (3) (4) (5) NT 5 Hectare NT$ Mill. NT $ Rice 11,532 776,139 8,950 .731 4,873 Sweet Potato 12,976 228,713 2,968 .823 5,486 Corn 9,666 22,641 219 .613 4,086 Soybean and Other Beans 6,139 57,991 356 .389 2,593 1186 4,951 33,253 165 .314 2,093 Sugarcane 22,789 86,247 1,965 1.446 9,639 Peanut 8,226 87,477 710 .522 3,480 Fruits 42,425 94,042 3,990 2.691 17,938 Vegetables 33,313 141,540 4,690 2.113 14,085 Mushroom 555,529 77 43 35.238 234,897 1,528,120 24,065 \ Sources of Information: Column 1 Taiwan Agricultural Input-Output Survey Report, 1971. Column 2 Taiwan Agricultural Yearbook, 1971. Column 3 Colurm l x column 2 Column 4 24,064,931,737 2 1,527,381 = 15,765 Then, column 1 : 15,765 = ratios in column 4. Column 5 Column 4 x 6,666, where NTS 6,666 is from Table 3.1, column 11, for the year 1970. 43 These ratios appear in oolunn 4 of Table 3. 2. These ratios repre- sent the crcpi's per hectare cash expenditure relative to that of the province's average per hectare expenditure. For our study, this province average figure of NT$ 15,750 per hectare's cashexpenditmremaymtbeused. The reason: allinputs havebeen priced at market values rather than what the famers actually paid in cash and in kind, or what the farmers actually received by selling crops on fann level prices.10 If one were to accept this NT$ 15,750 per hectare cash expenditure figure as actually paid by the farmers, then the pro- Vince's sun total of operating costs (in the form of fertilizer, seeds, PeSticides, water etc.) for fanning in 1970, even though self supplied labor costs are excluded, would have exceeded the total farm value product given by Taiwan Agricultural Yearbook, 1970 whose data are more detailed, reliable and authoritative. 11 The ratios as listed in oolunn 4 of Table 3.2, however, should may reflect the cropi's per hectare cash expenditure relative to the province's average per hectare cash expenditure, and hence this set 0f ratios may be tsefully arployed to carpute the "actual" per hectare Cash expenditure for 1970. \ 10The possible explanation for this wide divergence between MS 15'750 and NI'S 6,666 (Table 3.1, colunn 11) as the province average per hectare cash expenditure might reside with the fixed asset theory. Due 9° Prioemsitim > MVP > Pricesalvage on the farm level, when both cost and revenue are calculated on the farm level, both figures would be ichrably smaller than if calculated on market price level . ”The total revenue frcm all crops for 1970 is NI‘S 30,405 million. Note, the NTS 24,065 (Tal‘i‘wan E'cultural Yearbook, 1972, p. 24). m111.1011 in Table 3.2, the supposed cash expenditure for the production of “film crops for 1970, does not include cash expenditure on the production of Inimrcropsandbesmtincludehiredlaboroosts. 44 Cmsequently, by multiplying the ratios in colunn 4 of Table 3. 2 with an "provincial average of cash expenditure for per hectare cropped" in coluun 11 of Table 3.1, we obtain the "adjusted per hectare cash expenditure" in column 5 of Table 3.2. The method of deriving per hectare cash expenditure for each of the major crops for the year 1970 has now been presented. 'IWo more points needdetailed explanation: 1) how per crop/per hectare cash expenditure figures for years _a_._f_t_e_r_ 1970, and 2) how figures of cash expenditure per crap/per hectare for years prior to 1970 are obtained. Cash Waxes for the Major Crops, 1971 and 1972 Cash expenditure for the major crops for the year 1971 may be explained by Tables 3.3 through 3.5. Table 3.3 presents the prices of the major crops. Given the prices of individual camodities , average prices listed on the last rcw of Table 3.3 are obtained frcm the equation: 10 Z 'IVPi _i=1 t . . _ P -' for l arid J _ 1,. 0 0,10 arid» at 1.0 o. = 1:1 3t t 1958,. . .,1973 Thus, for 1970, the equally weighted price per 1.000 kgs. for all crepe is NT$ 1,899 whereas for 1971 it is NT$ 1,679 per 1.000 kgs. We wish to know the price changes for individual crops relative to the movements for changes in average prices for these major crops. For, “E believe that relative changefi in prices for this year's crop affect the next year's relative adjustments in cash expenditures for cropi's 45 production. The change in relative price is measured by: Pit/Pa‘t for i = 1,. . .,10 and t = 1959,. . .,1973 the unit price of cropi (NT$/1,000 kgs.) and, the average price of all the crops.12 "U ll "U II Table 3.4 presents the relative changes in price ratios of these major crops.13 Up to this point, several sets of information have been constructed for use: 1) the 1970's relative ratios of cash expenditure for each crop (Table 3.2, colmnn 4); 2) the ratios of commodity price changes relative to the average (Table 3. 4); 3) the province wide average cash expenditure for year 1959 to 1972 (Table 5.1, column 11); 4) the hectares cropped per each of the major crops (Taiwan Agricultural Yearbook, 1959 through 1973) ; and, 5) the percentages of total cash expenditure to total revenue for major crops frau 1959 through 1972 (Table 3.1, column 7). \ , 12The price change of rice, for instance, relative to all the other “3301- crops fran 1970 to 1971 is: N'I‘s 5,555/1,899 ___ . , _ ms 5,573/1,579 1-135 which appears 1n Table 3.4, colunn 1970 71. . 13For the year 1971, for instance, 1.135 is obtained as mentioned in footnote above. Carparison of relative price changes should be made frcm year to year (as for rice, for exarrple, the ratio in 1970 is 2895 whereas in 1971 is 1.135. It does not represent a significant 1 crease in the price of rice. In fact the increase is almost nil—frat! 970's NT$ 5,555 to 1971 ms 5,573) but rather within the year w cubs. Thus, considering the decline in avera e prices frcm 1970's 191$ 1,899 to 1971's NT$ 1,679 as stated in—_'a_b9'—T 1e 3.1 the relative change in Price for rice from 1970 to 1971 is "more favorable" than that of sane other crops mainly because the price of rice from 1970 to 1971 did not decline as sane other crops' prices did. 46 .meonummas .xOOhtoo> sobshasoabma sozaoe “ootaom a e a s “j s s 41 . . . oae.~ oem.e aeo.a aom.a mmo.a emo.e meo a wee a Mme H mam a Nee.~ eon a ems H mmo.~ _ae bee oaobo>< onm.ma omo.me moa.ma aeo.me mam.ma emm.m~ emo.ma mee.- memhwa ooH.- mom.- I): u): s.) n)- .u. eschews: ew~.m emo.~ oom.m mmm.~ ee~.m aem.m omm.~ Hem.~ ooo.~ -~.a e-.~ oom.a mo~.H om~.H mmo.~ mes mosoobomo> mmm.m mom.m amm.~ ome.~ eoo.m Hoe.~ mmo.~ oae.~ mma.~ emo.~ eee.~ mmm.~ one.a one.” eoo.~ emm.~ mosses mm~.oe mre.m emo.e bem.e om~.e ~em.e mev.e eoe.o eom.o aee.e eve.o one.o emm.o oov.o sme.m eoo.e basque mom ham oem emm omm oom NNN New saw was mom mam Nee mos one use ocoonoasm mmo.mm mma.- eae.H~ meo.mm amm.o~ mom.o~ mmm.m~ mme.ee meo.ma mee.oa omm.ea omm.ea me~.o~ om~.va mom.me moo.me one ~mo.oa moe.o omm.o Hmm.m emH.o Hoo.o mom.o ~m~.o ome.o ~e~.o mmm.m mee.m mmm.m me~.o «no.m oea.e mason bongo new 583m mem.e hem.m emm.m amo.m mom.m aem.m Mam.m emm.m mam.m ~em.m oe~.m ae~.m mmo.m Hem.~ Noe.~ -o.~ choc ~H~.H nee emm mew mew mmm Ame mme ems men was ova Hmo was one mus chance booze oem.m ~ma.m mem.m mmm.m ome.m _ Hoo.m mme.m oe~.m meo.m e~o.m m~a.a o~e.e moo.m mem.v ee~.m aam.~ scam are coo.H\we2 09.0 meme mead Heme ones eras whee nose area mood «boa meme Nome some area awed mmme have u as 22.32 .5389 5 8E 8.6 8882 @8882 use soda mono .3“ Boos 47 610-40 3o mo 83m magma“. GE”. Lacuna mo Baum II II CL C4 U u m. a a\ .a E03453 EBSOw 93 F “5538.. ~8. 4am. 4~44 ene. nee. 304 new. m8. 2~4 Se. -- -- -- -- Sousa: o4o4 ~ma. £04 oeo4 as... 244 see. 4184 $94 e~e. 4mm. ewe. has. as. «84 843895 e~e. mam. eo4.4 nee. are. 480.4 men. are. ma~.4 meo.4 om4.4 nee. nee. 4ee. e~4.4 meagre 3a. ~ea. :44 men. ~ea. 4.84 ~oa. 084 :54 304 one. owe. ewe. mom. ~84 5:58 oom. 3a. 8T4 3a. 484 maa4 4mm. 4~a. Rm. e34 o84 o84 3o4 Be. 344 gag me~4 mew. mew. ~me. ~e~4 2.44 see. 254 :44 now. e~a. 2.... ~84 Se. one. has. ~mm4 2e. mom4 ~me. e3. m84 8a. 8a. om~4 -o4 :54 now. So. m2. 3.: 98m go o5 638m 244 ~4a. 9.54 are. an. :54 o4e4 ewe. oe~4 m~o4 ~ea. 2.... one. «me. $44 58 4.84 era. :44 48. 484 ~84 2,... 2a. $44 a3. 54 -m. «3. one. «84 Bfioaumba ~m4 4 8a. 24 4 new. wee. 3o 4 Se. Ra. R4 4 3;... 23. -e . one . :34 o~o4 8E sue-34 2434 4723 nae-$2 $494 Mao-$2 S-oofl moo-$2 who-$2 $484 S-SS 3484 31:54 8434 $.33 who» mono $34-33 .5348. 5. anode nod moons/4 schemes; 8 9338 48890 84.6 nod 4352 No modem 44 38.4. 48 Given the above infonnation, Table 3. 5 is constructed to arrive at cash expenditure for individual crops for the year 1971. Given the relative ratios of per crop operating expenditure (Table 3. 2 colunn 4), and given the relative commodity price changes fran 1970 to 1971 (Table 3.4, colunn 1970-71) , column 3 in Table 3.5 is the product of the mo and says: since the per hectare operating expenditure on rice, for instance, for 1970 is .731 of the province's average per hectare cash expenditure, and since the price change of rice from 1970 to 19.71, relative to price changes in other crops, is 1.135, then the relative qaerating expenditure on rice for the year 1971 should vary accordingly. Note, normally one would use the ratios of price changes from 1969 to 1970 in order to determine the cash to be expended for 1971. However, due to the crop-fertilizer barter system in Taiwan, which predetennines that X quantity of this caning year's yield is needed to barter for Y aTDunt of the goverrment-controlled fertilizer, the farmers, before Planting, already know the relative prices—and hence relative price Changes—of crops for the caning year. For instance, if 100 kgs. of rice in 1970 was needed to barter for x quantity of fertilizer, while it WUuld take 105 kgs. of rice in 1971 to barter for the same X quantity of fertilizer, then, before planting for the 1971's first crop, the farmer in 1970 already knows that the fertilizer "price" has increased while the 1971' 8 price of rice relative to other crops in 1970 has declined. ConSequently, in 1970 the farmer already knows the predetermined price 0f Crcps for 1971 via this crop-fertilizer barter system and hence, in 1970, when planting for the 1971 crops, the farmer already knows the chi)? price changes relative to fertilizer and adjusts the operating expanses on various crops accordingly. 45) :95 NH. . .2 c.5400 .1». mance. £69.98 3309. bed he egufig sumo now 08.4% amen—stewed m5 .5 @833 m. .5300 u m 9:38 . 4 ~34 £82.83 Studded-mm. condone 8438s to 5252 434 :4 €84.88 monsoon! do ~35: 9: .3 Bosses e 538 - e 528 a 5548 44 2nd. .maobo noes... 8e 9: to 84%.. 9: woe 8341898 58 439 P42: x o cal-Pom - e 5.38 ~24 .8858» nguasueug coach. 69595 "494509. we .8852 .2-3 5 «chug wannabe: no ~85: x v 5548 I m 55400 44 5548 44 832. 68988 wedge use Eggs. :88 to woodman 385de 942.4 x m 535 - a 5548 452.2 538 $4 838... .. ~ 538 .e 5548 .~.m 838,—. - 4 5548 u Eu HEOHCH mo g w 484 3a.: u . moot; 2&me Hm moo. on M 34 JR woman 4N4 .4 and.” gnu! mmmé 392 8a; o3. mv~.~ BNfiu BTN m8; m3.~ 835$ vmw.~ no.3 504 m2. 984 mmmdw _ chad 2:4 ~ao.~ fleas mmm . $5 . m mmm Ho . mom KN . v H3 . a: .4 . -m . .559. mnoé 9%.: one; 89. m3; N31: ~34 mom; £4 E mmm. 4mm; Nm m8. 3 one; 3N. ova. IM. me. m3. 4mm.~ end m3. o: mh~£ mow. mONA can. 938 ~98 . as g mam. moim vm woo. am $33 mac. one." m5. :5 omm. «2.3.. can; «NH. '3; _ «36 one. #34 Mme. 358 g man. N33 mmm.m men. men; Noon one. mnaé #2.. 8a: m .42. 4:: E 4:! E m .5 a. 8. 2.. G. Am. .3 a... .8 3. 2.3 How 380 4 1.84 agar—den Hymn! 93 TE 3 .8500: Han mus-:6 g was Hum Nikki my»: a 4 L899 sumo A 4 L95 9 9% find 838: How .ousug 455 you ~38. 8 .85 new .muuufingfl Wigs“! a 05 8 000.492 98520-5 ammo gag gag—459nm BEE ammo woo—g .833 93894:»; governed 58398. 5.09.8.0 gag 2593.an menu 8?. 3509...?— 838: nod to cause targets 4.38.54 to can. Eugeussb 4.38395 83:8 no.0 co been. and 2.2 .553 s..- gug find 3500: fig hum confirm! .m.n Quin. 50 Column 3 in Table 3.5 is multiplied by NT$ 6,990 (from Table 3.1, mlumn 11) which is the average per hectare operating expenses for 1971 andtheresultappearsincolunn 4. Column 5 is the product of column 4 and their respective hectares cropped for the year (see column 2 of Table 3.2) . At the bottcm row of Table 3.5, NT$ 11,884 million represents the total cash supposedly expended for the major crops for 1971. However, given the year's total revenw-NI‘S 28,775 million from column 8 of Table 3.1—the supposedly NI'$ 11,884 million represents a .413 ratio of input to output, which does not square with Table 3.1, column 7'5 .354 as obtained from data of Report from Fann Record Keeping Families in Taiwan, 1970. There is the need to syndlronize the two ratios. Consequently, each row in column 5 of Table 3.5 is divided by NT$ 11,884 million (sun of column 5) to obtain the ratios of cropi's to total operating expenses of the major crops, 1971. The result is a set of ratios which appear in column 6 of Table 3 - 5 - 14 Data fmn Report from Farm Record Keeping Families in Taiwan, 1971 (Colum 9 of Table 3.1) indicate that 1971's total cash expenditure for theSe major crops is NT$ 10,486 million. Then, multiplying ratios in 001mm 6 of Table 5 with NT$ 10,487 million gives the total cash expended for each of the major crops in column 7. Finally, to obtain the per hectare cash expenditure for cropi for 19'71, the values in column 7 are divided by the crops respective hectares c1lbpped for that year. 14The sun of column 6 being 1.001 is due to romding. 51 Pooling infonnaticn from various sources and tracing through a series of calculations based on reasoning and common sense results in the desired information in column 8 of the above table. And it is figures such as contained in column 8 that will eventually enter as derived data into the prediction equations for the production of major crops.15 While Table 3. 5 on previous pages represents calculations for the year 1971, Table 3. 4 on the following two pages outlines calculations done for the year 1972's per hectarei cash expenditure. The reasoning behind Table 3.6 is similar to that of Table 3.5. Having presented how data on cropi' 5 cash expenditure for 1971 were obtained, and how fran 1971's data (column 9) we proceeded to derive 1972's corresponding data, we now need to explain how the corres- ponding data for years prior to 1970 were derived. Obtaining Information on (berating Expenditures for the Major CITES Prior to 1970 Fran Report (11 Taiwan's Agricultural Input—Output Survey, 1970, time relative ratios of cash expenditure for the major crops for 19 70 are known (Table 3.2, column 4). And, given 1970's lmown ratios, 1971's per ctr!) cash expenditure and cash expenditure ratios are derived (Table 3.5) . For operating cash expenditures on individual crops, 1959 to 1969, the 8% reasoning as applied to the construction of Table 3.5 is applied, “him; the one excepticn of column 3 in Table 3.7. \ J'F’Note that the ratios listed in column 9 of Table 3.5 are calcu- as follows: e.g. NI‘S 5,122/6,990 = -.733, where NT$ 5,122 is the con- sated W per hectare cash expenditure for rice production in 1971, whereas 36$ 6,990 is the province's average per hectare operating cash expenditure ‘ 1'? the same year (Table 3.1, column 11) . This .733 for 1971 is parallel aning to 1970's .731 as in 001mm 4 of Table 3.2 and column 1 of the Table 3.5. 52 H .3. 55:00 46 Canon. 0008.00 0.3002 .001 you 050.5:098 £000 .00.“ 060002.. #305500 020 .5 Emlfibb:gwmw a 5:300 . .23 £003.00» amusugugmd 53.39 00000.8 850ml 00 00852 .23 5 fl0009.000 00.30.00: «0 0095: 05 E 00033 N. 5::00 m 5:300 .m 5.300 J.m 038. .0080 00.3.: :00 0:0 00 :0303000d 0:0 .000 0539.090 5.000 #300 whoa x o 5.300 N. 5.300 .mnma £0080on 3033:3013 5058. 6018000 8.3000: no 00952 .mp3 :w 00010.00 00.3000: 00 0095: x v 55:00 m 55:00 .3 93:00 .H.m 032. 6000000 0:300: 000 0n:fio:0mx0 £000 00 0000020 1.4055000 0.2.3 x m 5.300 v 5:300 .mnngma 55000 .v.m 3009 m 5530 .v 55:00 .N.m 0139 H EH00 ”coflugomca 00 000.30% oooé $13 08.3 oomfimm Hm moo mm QTSN 30.3 How. 08.: 150.592 no; 30.: gain 09. 0mm; 09.: com; Nmm. mam; 0033095 mend Sodm m3; m3. $0; 313 Hmod mam. «mod mug mmm . mom. m mam mmo . Nam mow . m mom . New . mam . 03:80 2K; omn.- 02; meg. woo; 21.2 304 vmm. 2.04 0—80.89m vmw. So; mm moo. me So; com. mew. mmm. 00:. mmm . mafim 02 3o. m3 mmo.m mom . 2.0. 3v. 0:000 00400 0:0 500%“ Sm. mmni on moo. ma mmm.m mmv. Nam. amm. F50 Hmm. mamo mom; m3. ommé hmmfi mam. vmm. own. 0038 000.6 090. mmofi $58 vmm . 038 $03. one. com . m2. . 000. m .5 .34: 32 4:: E w :2 $0 a: 2.. $0 30 2: A3 A8 30 $3.33 3.3 new 0080 00.30 00:03 00.3: 05 980 2000 03000: 00w 0933 000 .000 000094 0033:0050 a a 1:086 2000 a a L0>< on 0.00:?me 05 :m00 000000: .000 0803:0900 .090 ~00 H0009 00 .800 .50 .guaocg W>30H0a 3 0.05.3.0 000003 90055000 5000 0.0302005 8:0«2005 0050830 2000 “00:90 n:09nm £000 05 B 2503:0150 0.3003 000 £000 H0009 :8 m. .0000 £000 H008. 09300: 000 m x a 09.50 0.4500: 000 888: nos 00 oflnm 088.5. 088.5. no 305. 03838: 03882: 9:530 88 no oaumm 80 ~30. 50,309 5 09:30:00ko £000 0.4300: u0m\0000 .000 Bowing .08 200.“. 53 mile (131111111 3 in Table 3.5 is the product of columns 1 and 2, colum 3 in Table 3. 7 on the follaving page is obtained by division: mlumn l/colunn 2. And the rationale is as follows. In Table 3.5—for year l97l--we asked: given 1970's ratios of per hectare cash expenditure relative to that of the average (Table 3. 5 , colum l) , and given the relative changes in the crops ' respective prices fr.:m 1970 to 1971 (Table 3.4, column 1970-71) , what should be the relative d'langes in ratios for cash expenditure for the production of crops in 1971. ' In Table 3.7--for 1969, for example-we ask: Given the relative price change ratios in Table 3.4, column 1969-70, what cash expenditure ratios of crcpi in 1969 for the production of 1970 crops would be §_1_1_ch_ that the corresponding ratios for 1970 were as given by the Regrt on Taiwan's Agricultural Input-want Survey, 1970 (Table 3.2, column 4). Consequently, instead of multiplying columns 1 and 2 as in Table 3- 5 which "rationalizes forward" to 1971's ratios, we divide column 1 by column 2 in Table 3.7 to "reason back" to 1969's ratios. The reasoning for columns 4 through 9 of Table 3.7 is identical “'ith that of Tables 3.5 and 3.6.16 ‘Ihe above constructed time series data in columns 8 of Table 3.5 Waugh 3. 7 are values used to explain the variations in the dependent val.:.:~:.i,ables: namely, per hectare yield for the major crops. \ a 16For years from 1959 through 1968, ten correSponding tables constructed. The values in column 8 of each of the tables are Q’Ql-lstnnted data for cropi's per hectare cash expenditure in the e 5?“;ng equations. See Appendix A for Tables for years 1959 through 54 .2. £5.30 77m .2nt H €338.33 :9:me .voaaouo gum: 90 #552 .a 55.30 .~.m .3969 .23 £00355» 3333?? 5339 .Eanouo $58: no .893 .3 5.38 4A 328. .053 3.0035. 0.» .moma 5 6080.5 858: m0 .695: m5 .5 @0698 N. 5:38 .. m 5.300 .noaaoao 8502 won you .wududccmnxo ammo new wmggw Hm~05>0um 05 3 @0336 m c8300 .. m 9.530 .wuouo none... :3 g mo Egg 93 uou gaudy—wean. :mmo H33 m .33 x w 95:00 I N. 55:00 .m 9530 mo Sm 93 >3 Raga m 9:300 n o 85:00 .mwg 5 BEOHU 8.5.300: no goofs: x v 95:00 u m 9:300 .8088 @5303 Son mom musufivcmfixm. cmmu wo 00.95%. 33:30.6 m .9va x m 5.300 I v 5330 .amlwwma 55:8 Jim Danni. I N 9:300 .v 55:30 .N.m 01.39 I H 9:300 "cOHuQEOwcH mo moohsom T coo; 513 mmva womfimm AN moo. mm 3353 mmoév amm. mm~.mm 500.23.: ~34 25.: . 5o.~ o3 . com; m3. .3 03 .N coo 4 m: .m moanfiowg «.mwd Hmoéw mth m3 . 5mm; «$0.2 vmm.~ 2%. How .N muddm Hem. 89m m3 mwo. wmm Smé mmm. mmm. mmm. ”35.3 mmwé _ 02.3 o3; m3. 3o; 03.3 oooé vom. o3; goummsm HNM . hmmJ mm moo. we nonfo. hmm . Nmm. :m . mop. hmv. FERN mg mg. m3 moofi mow. mmm. mmm . Madam .850 6.8 533m mom. -m.m mm moo. mm 31¢ 26. mom. m3. 500 gm. mowi 3m; m3. 0mm; manic cam. Hmm. mmx. 330m 303m ems . 236 $5.». «mm . omm.m 3m 6 Sm . mom. Hmn . 8E m a2 41.: 9.2 .32 2.2 m .5 8v :3 at 3V .3 2; AC .3 2. 053 new £96 $.82 «Bug no.3: :w 855 nmmo mug as 83...? no.5 mam Hum $6354 83% a a L896 ammo a a num>< on m .mocgwum m5 ammo 838: 5m .833 dob new 38. 3 dob now .8385?“ 253mm 8 .838 womumzm $8.5m 5.8 was; gag 836596 ammo 3ng Icmnxm ammo m5 3 233 838: mom :8 ~38. m. done ammo ~88. 838: ha N x H 83m 8889. Hum 338: an No 2.5. Sums“? Bung“! we 035. 89882: @3838: 328 8.6 no 038 new $3 .533. S. wan—fig :3 830% umgfluouo Hum “Unwind 4...». 3nt 55 In this chapter, we have presented the data sources, use of available macro data for disaggregation purposes, and we have constructed hitherto unavailable time series data in the form of per hectare cash expenditure for predicting the per hectare yield of the major crops. Given the information contained in this chapter , and given the projection equations, identities and accounting components in Chapter II , we may now proceed to present the results of prediction equations in the follcding chapter . CHAPI‘ERIV REEREBSIQI RESULTS, COVJPARISON OF HISTORICAL DATA WI'IH RESULTS FROM REGRESSION ANALYSIS, IDENTITIES AND ACCGJNTING W Agriculture in Taiwan can be divided into four subsectors: crops, livestock, fishery and forestry. In this chapter, results will be presented for each of the projective equations grouped under crops and livestock subsectors.1 Estimated results are carpared with historical data, both on cannodity and aggregate levels to establish the projective ability of the adopted regression equations , identities and accounting Wts. 'Ihis chapter is confined to the presentation of regression results only. Estimated Coefficients, R2, 3, F and t Test Values Crop Subsector 'Ihe general equation for crop production used in this study is: logYi =logai+bi logXi fori=1,. . .,9and t t t = 1959,. . .,1972 “mere: Yi = yield of cropi (kg./hectare) and, = cash expenditurei \ E 1The farmer's per capita incane frcm farming activities is derived 33‘:qu crop and livestock raising. See Reports from Farm Record Keeping % Qilllies in Taiwan. And in Taiwan Agricultural Yearbooks, the fishery lilatIon and revenues franTishmg Indtstry are given 1n separate 2:901:16; that means, revenues frcm fishing industry are not a source :Income to the farm person. 56 57 Per hectare rice yield as regressed on its corresponding per hectare cash expenditure yields the following parametric estimates: log y + 2.407 + .297 log x ( .222) (.062) R? = .6542 and sy = .026 R2 is significantly different The coefficient of determination, As for rice production, the fran zero at < .0005 level from the F test. t-tats on the estimated coefficient for per hectare cash expenditure and for the constant are significant at the < .0005 levels. To compare the estimated value product of rice with that of the IddLstorical data, the ratio'vT/VP is used where v% is the estimated value product obtained via an identity.3 The resulting ratios are as follows: 2The R28 in the subsector for crop production are generally low M with those obtained for the livestock subsector. However, the ratios of estimated value products to historical value products as pre- Sel'lted in Table 4. 3 of this Chapter indicate that, via identities and ac<=ounting carponents , these projective equations are adequate for Projective purposes. 3The identity is: VP = estimated per hectare yield x price x flectares croppedt. With price:C and hectares croppedt as ' toricafly gi‘ren. In a corputerized simulation study, tracking and sensitivity tests (1) to carpare the projected consequences fran the estimated are done: or guestimated coefficients with that of the recorded evidence; and (2) {255’ Varying the estimated coefficients by one or more standard deviations 11:1 either direction, to test how sensitive the projections. Hwever, {Fhoe this simulation study is not ccmputerized and since all the coeffi- QLGrits are estimated by following statistical procedures , no tracking as such is done. Sane procedure similar to tracking is done in the following manner. timated coefficients in each of the equations lead to their estimated When the per his a ectare yields (or production of livestock itars) . e yields are multiplied by their corresponding recorded unit prices l‘Q-tgr N by their hectares cropped, we obtain the V’ii’s. We then calculate the 58 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1.148 1. 024 1. 020 1. 004 . 965 .969 .930 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 .956 .943 .958 1.080 1.000 1.046 .976 Regression results and comparative value-product ratios for the renaining crops and agricultural subsectors will be presented by the same general format as the one imnediately above. Sweet Potato log Y = 2.384 + .477 log x ( .569) (.l55) 122 = .442 and sy = .044 R2 is significant at the .009 level from the F test, and the t—test for the estimated coefficients are significant at .001 and .009 levels, respectively. The V’bt/th ratios are: 1959 1960 _ 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 .1. 013 .958 .938 . 950 1. 302 . 981 .998 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 .942 .866 1.038 .967 .980 1.003 1.126 \r‘CD-t‘n log Y = .9181 + .698 10g x (.615) (.178) R2 = .562 and 3y: .061 : 51 mi ratios to see how close they are to Lmity. This is first done 1: t fig): individual crops and livestock production , and then aggregative 1y '31: each subsector. 3 With respect to sensitivity test, since coefficients used in this S‘Flzdy are statistically estimated, and since this is not a ccmputerized Wation study, it is cost and time prohibitive to test the sensitivity Q58 the estimated coefficients. 59 The F test is significant at the .002 level for R2 while t—tests for the estimated coefficients are "significan " at .161 and .002 levels, respectively. 'Ihe V’fit/VPt ratios for the 14-year period are: 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1.2877 1.212 1.038 .890 1.079 .975 .905 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 .969 .754 .910 1.094 1.084 1.018 .936 SoybeanandOtherBeans log Y = .7228 + .7034 log x (.228) (.069) R2 = .895 and sy = .033 The F test is significant at the < .0005 level for the coefficient of determination, and the t-tests for the estimated coefficients are both significant at .008 and <.0005 levels, respectively. The VIE/VPt ratios for the years 1959 through 1972 are: 1959 1969 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1.004 .971 1.045 1.018 1.171 1.023 .896 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1.015 .898 .946 1.063 .963 1.098 .934 TEa4 log Y = -2.09 + 1.140 log x ( .801) (.188) R? = .755 while sy = .064 4While the independent variables in all other equations estimating the per hectare yields are their respective per hectare cash expenditurei. the independmt variable in this equation is the price of tea t-l because it yields a higher R2. 60 The F test for tea production's coefficient of determination is signifi— cant at the < .0005 level while the t-tests for the estimated constant and beta terms are significant at the .023 and < .0005 levels, respectively. The V’Ft/VPt ratios for tea production are as follows: 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1. 143 1. 161 1. 267 1. 001 . 958 . 995 . 835 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 . 908 . 831 . 934 1.161 1. 171 . 854 . 903 §I£arcane log Y = 4.405 + .124 log x ( .263) (.068) R2 = .217 and sy = .038 The F test is not significant at the .05 level for R2 but is "significan " at the .1 level (.093). The t-tests for the estimated coefficients are "significant" at the < .0005 and .093 levels for a and B , respectively. The vi>tAzpt ratios for the years 1959 through 1972 are: 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 .906 1.074 .959 1.128 1.068 .977 .895 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 .922 1.040 .919 1.057 1.143 .916 1.046 Peanut log Y = log 1.937 + .324 log X ( .430) (.125) R2 = .360 while sy = .043 The F test for the regression equation is significant at the .023 level while t-tests for the estimated a and B are significant at the .001 and 61 .023 levels, resPectively. The GPt/VRt ratios for the years 1959-1972 are as follows: 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 l. 062 1. 004 . 998 1. 064 l. 111 . 957 .927 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 .967 .805 1.043 1.111 .872 1.106 1.026 Fruits logY = log 2.218 + .454 log X (.778) (.188) R? = .328 and 8y = .062 The F test is significant at the .032 level while the t-tests for the estimated coefficients 0L and B are significant at the .015 and .032 levels, respectively. The VP t/VP t ratios for fruit production for the duration studied are: 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1. 313 1. 254 1. 339 1. 217 1. 223 . 888 . 782 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 . 874 . 874 . 904 . 975 1. 066 .951 1. 111 These ratios show substantial deviations from one and indicate a pattern of serial correlation. Given Taiwan's limited data basis and our limited knowledge of the basic structural relationships , speculation did not reveal variables to be included which would remove the serial correlation. Darbin-Watson statistic is .5607.5 5Of all the major crops, only fruits and vegetables' per hectare yield projective equations show serial correlation of the error terns at 0L = . 01 level of significance. Vegetable production also has observation values serially correlated. However, the differences between the esti- neted and the historical value product are small. 62 Reiterating once again the nonstructural nature of the regression equations, and stressing the function of structural identities and accounting components, we choose not to resort to weighted regression results for fruit production. The overall \7Pt/VPt for all major crOps is .994 while for all agricultural subsectors taken together is .995.6 Vegetables log Y = .936 + .746 log x (.967) (.236) R? = .453 whereas sy = .042 The coefficient of determination R2 is significant at the .008 level from the F test. The t-test for estimated on is not significant (.352) while for that of B is significant at the .008 level. The VPt/VPt ratios, 1959-1972, are: 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1.018 1. 021 1.064 . 997 1.130 1.195 1.036 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 19 71 1972 1.057 1.032 .903 .906 .900 . 864 .933 Though the (Yt - ft) values do not diverge as significantly as those for fruit production above, there is also serial correlation problem encountered here. The Durbin-Watson statistic for this equation, with 12 degrees of freedcm, is .609. But, by the same token as discussed in footnote five and since the average \th/VPt is 1.011, the results are allowed to stand as they are. We now proceed to the presentation of regression results for the remaining livestock subsector . @aTmm4s. 63 Livestock Subsector Livestock Slaughter log Y = log 4.123 + .621 log x ( .160) (.042) Y livestock slaughter (heads), anci, x = national per capita income t-1'(NT$) R2 = .945 and Sy = .031 The coefficient of determination R2 is significant at the < .0005 level frtm the F test. And the t-tests for the estimated a and B terns are both significant at the < .0005 level. The VPtAIPt ratios for the 14-year period are as follows : 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 . 904 . 960 1. 002 . 976 1. 016 1. 094 1. 143 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1.051 . 973 1. 006 1. 052 .939 . 999 1. 040 Poultry Production log Y = -12.5814 - .486 log x + 2.905 10g X2 (1.271) (.137) 1 (.206) where Y = production of poultry meats (heads) X1 = price of poultry meat t-l (NTS/head) and, X2 = population t R2 = .978 and sy = .0212 ‘Ihe F test is significant at the < .0005 level for the coefficient of detennination while the t-tests for the estimated coefficients are 64 significant at the < .0005, .004 and < .0005 levels, respectively. The wilt/(71>t ratios for poultry production, 1959 through 1972, are: 1959 1960 1961 "1962 1963 1964 1965 .955 .986 .980 1.016 1.051 1.072 .956 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 .975 .965 . 928 1.018 1.064 1.032 .935 Milk Production log Y = log -1.115 + 1.343 log X (.437) (.113) where Y = milk production (ton) and, X = national per capita incone t-l (NT$) R2 = .915 and s = .084 Y The F test for the coefficient of determination is significant at the <.0005 level, whereas the t-tests for 6‘: and 8 terms are both significant at the .024 and < .0005 levels respectively. The annual value product ratio VPtNPt are as follows: 1959 1960___ 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1.168 .933 1.075 1.406 .930 .764 .774 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 .810 .913 .971 1.130 1.183 1.244 1.132 Poultry Egg Product ion log Y = -4.312 + 1.394 log x ( .522) (.072) where Y = number of poultry eggs (1,000 pieces) and, X = nu'tber of fowls t-l 65 R2 = .967 and sy = .035 The coefficient of determination R2 is significant at the <.0005 level from the F test. The t-test results for a and B respectively are both significant at the <. 0005 level. The annual value product ratio VPL/VPt for egg production 15 as follows: 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 19 65 1.005 1.080 1.109 1.009 .934 .857 .993 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 . 1972 1.020 1.077 1. 058 .945 . 899 1.008 1. 116 Having presented the regression results of crop and livestock pro- duction in Taiwan, and having indicated the ratios of V13i /VPi , we now t t provide an overall view of comparisons between the estimated and the historical value products by commodity and by subsector. Regressim Results in Corparison with Recorded Aggregate Data While Table 4.1 o1 the following pages shows the historical data on value products for agricultural commodities and subsectors, Table 4 .2 presents the estimated value products of corresponding cormodities and subsectors. To colpare the proportional differences between values of the historical data and that of the estimated values, Table 6.3 shows the VPi /VPi ratios.7 1'. t 7VPi is obtained by: Estimated per hectare yieldi x price x t t hectares croppedi for i = 1,. . .,9 and t = 1959,. . .,1972, where price and hectares cropped being historically given. (Units: yield-~kgs. per hectare and price--NT$/kg.) TVPi and TVP. for each subsector (for i = 1, . . .,9 for crops and j = 1,. . .,4 for 1ivestock subsector) and TVP for both subsectors are obtained via summation identities. 66 Some selected.\§Pt/VPt ratios may indeed cause justifiable concern as to the adequacy of using the regression equations for projections.8 However, due to the nature of this study, which focuses primarily on the per capita income gap between the farm.and the nonfarmtsectors of the population, one needs to examine the differences in the subsectors and the agricultural sector as a whole rather than singling out individual instances to determine the projective ability of the estimation equations. Besides, most of the ratios between the estimated and the historical value products are close enough to warrant use of the projective equations. Thus, when comparing the above ratios on the levels of subsectors, only a few isolated instances show wider divergence between the estimated results and the recorded data on value products. One further Observation needs to be made. Table 4.3's ratios for crop and livestock subsectors, and the ratios for the two subsectors cotbined (bottom row) indicate that, for the period 1964 through 1968, the estimated value products are generally lower than the recorded value products (i.e. below unity). Similarly, the Opt/wt ratios for the 1959 through 1963 period are greater than unity. .Attention.was then turned to individual projective equations. When.running regression equations at an earlier stage of this study, lJurbinéwetson.statistics were not requested. Subsequent computer print— out confirmed the existence of serial correlation of the error terms for tzflo (fruits and vegetables) out of thirteen.projective equations at .01 lrevel of significance. ‘ 8For instance, the VPi /VPi ratios for 1963's potato is 1.302 and t t l- 302 and for 1967's corn is .754. 67 Homdomdm vomémmam 3653.2” $m.~mm.mm Smfimimm 3553.8 Hmmammxfi u m0 1309 5m mmm.mvo.n smu.mm>.o oom.~am.m hmm.mmo.m mna.mam.m oom.a>m.v mom.mmo.o uonommnom xoopmm>aa How Hmuounom ano.mm> mmm.mem 5mm.mm> mmm.o¢m nem.mmm moa.mow mao.mmv moon om>.vm nmm.ooa www.ms omm.mv Hmc.mm mmm.me mmm.am rad: ona.nmm cam.mch nbm.mem Hmv.mam amm.amm www.mmv mam.mmv .muuaoom ~mm.vmm.m Hmm.m~o.m mm¢.vmm.v nmm.omn.o com.omm.o mma.omn.m mme.mv~.m umpnocmHm . roonmm>ou who.am~.~m mhv.nmm.am mae.mvm.na omv.mam.ma vmm.vmm.ma omo.mmm.ma mom.ama.aa Hapoooncm mooHu mono: won 389m mma.mmm.a ham.mma.a www.moa.a nmm.mmo.a mov.¢mm mom.omm mmm.nw> moanmuomw> mma.oen.~ Hmm.mmm.a omm.vaa.a wmm.mmm mna.mvn www.mmo mam.m>m humane men.oom nmm.mmm mmm.oam omm.mao www.mmm mao.omo maa.oom uscmom mm>.mmo.m mma.omm.m mmm.mam.a www.mom.a meo.mvv.a mma.mma.a mmm.mnm.a mcmcummom mmm.omm moa.aom mmo.o>m mom.~vm mom.mm~ mwa.mvm omm.mmm one mam.omm mom.mmo moa.onm maa.oov mnv.om¢ om>.wm¢ hom.o>m mccmm mango oco_comnaom omn.mma Ham.oma mmm.aaa wom.maa >m~.mm >m~.oo mmo.mv cuoo Hmv.om~.m mmm.mmv.m on>.~>m.a mum.mmm.a mum.>oo.m Hoo.mmm.a omm.mom.a opmpom ummzm me~.mvm.aa hm>.vm~.aa Hma.mom.oa mmv.vmm.m mm>.m>~.oa moa.vmm.m vhv.amo.m moflm coo; u wen mueooaenu meme omma mama mood Hmma coma mmma Homo Nemalmmma .cozflma CH muuqooum xUODmm>HA new macho Honmz.mo muuDoOHm_m:Hm> HmongHMflm .H.v magma 68 eczema .muduaooflumo mo ucgflucooo .mnmalowma emxoonummw HmHDuHoUHHmd awesome . “gawk/CO HMflOfiwaHnm EoflmfiowcH mo mocuoom omo.mmm.ee mom.meo.oe ssm.mem.mm emo.mmm.om oee.mmo.em mmm.o~o.em mmm.ema.em u no Hmuoe sum eme.oom.se oem.eam.ma oom.mmm.ae mom.aoe.oe Noe.omo.oa moe.smo.m Nom.omo.s ucuocmocm rocumm>ae won Honouhom msfl.mmm.e Hmsroem.a mae.som.a mov.eoe.e oem.amo.e ecm.amm omo.omm moon mom.mme eoe.eo mmo.mm Hmm.ns ooo.ms mmm.Hs Hom.oe gees moe.aoo.e emm.omm.e emm.mmm.e smm.sme.e «mm.osa.a msm.nmm omo.oeo muuacoo om~.~mm.oe Hmm.moo.oe moo.mmo.m moa.-s.e mom.mae.s Hso.oeo.o Hmm.oom.m housccmem x0883...” ~Hm.mmo.om moo.omm.sm Heo.eom.m~ oem.eme.om meo.moo.sm ome.mmm.mm mmo.emm.mm nucuoonhsm moose we. we wow aflouhom oom.smmre Hoe.ose.a mms.omm.s enm.mmm.m mom.mmo.~ Hmm.e~m.e osfi.mss.e nuehmucoc> eoo.emm.m omm.mmm.m ose.nmm.m emm.osm.m ~sfi.mom.m omm.aem.m «mo.omm.m muasum oom.sos omm.aas msm.Hoo osm.oms mHH.mom moa.amo.a emH.Hom usemdo maa.mom.~ omm.sma.m ems.eos.a som.mmm.e oom.mos.e moo.mme.e omo.eom.e osmowmosm omm.Hmm mam.ssm oso.aos som.eoe moe.oom sme.mev omm.~mm hoe oam.mae mme.mae mmo.moe oma.emm ome.ooo oao.omm sem.mma modem udouo cam cmdnscm so~.mmm www.mma mmm.mo~ msm.oee mme.mma ooe.m- omc.mma choc mos.sem.m ees.mmm.m omm.som.m oo~.mem.m ooa.oom.~ oms.emo.m omm.Hoo.m cpmuoo ummsm mmm.e~m.ae esm.smm.~e esm.omo.me Hmm.mmm.ma Hos.eoe.ea ooa.mem.ma sme.moe.me wear ooo.e n nee sueoossuu meme Heme once some some some come woo» .omsdaudoo .H.e deems emo.me~.m~ sae.mme.m~ moo.mea.o~ moa.asm.m~ cam.mmm.- mmm.oeo.o~ mao.mso.me u no Hmuoe_esm mma.ems.s oom.ome.s mmm.msm.o mmm.aom.m mmo.emm.m moo.oos.e mmo.mse.m ucuodohsm ecoummseq ucm duodenum eeo.s~s eem.eoe Hmo.oso smm.mmo sem.omo omo.smo mmo.ooe moon mom.ao eeo.am ee~.os smm.mo moo.sm mso.oo omm.sm nae: ohm.mmm ~sm.~om ooo.mmo mso.-o ome.oem ome.mme soo.eoa sneezed emo.eme.o Noe.cma.m maa.eso.e omm.seo.e mme.mom.s Hom.omm.m mso.osm.m umpsmcmem 3&3 Hoo.oem.om Hm~.~mm.em om~.ses.se om~.mem.sa mem.moe.se mes.mmm.me cmm.om~.~e . uopcmmosm cocwo ucnmz_ucm Hmucuocm mw Hao.eeo.a ecm.eme.e mmm.~m~.a omm.moo.e Hoe.sec.a oom.omm meo.mms nmehmumoc> oom.oee.m omm.mao.e ome.-a.e omo.mma.e ~co.oeo.e smm.osm oem.ooe cheapo omo.ees seo.amm omm.emo moo.smo Hmm.aoo mmo.~oo mom.emm encode oso.mmm.a omo.mma.m os~.m~s.e aeo.mam.e omm.mmm.a mmm.mem.e oo~.eo~.e demuummom omo.msm seo.mm~ emm.emm mms.mem mom.asm omo.mmm mmo.mm~ mos mee.ooe Hom.ooe mo~.mma em~.soo mae.omo Hoe.oee mos.esm nsmdm porno can somehow mmm.eee eeo.eve mms.o~e som.eoe Hom.mm omo.me oma.om cuoo omo.os~.~ «om.mme.~ mmm.mao.~ mmm.meo.~ moe.mmm.a oem.oms.e mea.o~m.e cumuoo woman mos.eao.aa omm.oeo.oe amo.eoo.oa moo.a~o.oe aes.mma.oa mas.oeo.o mme.oam.o poem ooc.e n max suaocssoo meme coma meme Nome Home come ohms weds meoauomoa .cmsame ca mucououo rcoummaaq com macho woemz.wc muoncouo mcam>.cdumseumm .~.o manna .cm>wm maamownoumfls ouo_ooooouo monouomn oco mmowuo mnu muonz.ocm 70 .man.. . ..mmma u u now u u m1. . 1H u ..n How. H @9598 goes on ..n mono x Pm Emu; «Hounds Moo .0 P." #03.on 88> ©3953. "3353 of E commando mam Bouoowo 88> command 9:. mon.mom.wo mmo.mmv.ov mam.oa~.mm mmm.vmh.mm vmo.amm.mm omn.moo.mm vmm.ohm.om u no Hmuoe_ecm ooo.amm.va mmo.~mm.ma Hmv.amm.oa mmn.mmv.oa mov.mmo.oa mmo.mhv.m me.mom.> uouommnom recommsaq you Hmuopnom ovo.ma>.a vma.nmm.a omo.mmo.a hmm.mvo.a Hnm.mHH.H mmm.mmm Hom.mmm mmmm mom.~va mva.ama Hmm.moa mve.nm www.mn omm.mw mam.>m xddz mom.oom.a www.mnm.a mom.mom.H mma.mam.a vom.amo.a mmv.mmm mmv.mmm muuflsom mvm.~nm.aa mom.mmm.m mmN.va.m nmm.mma.m omv.>mm.n nnm.mmv.m mmh.ooa.m Hmpnmsmam xooumm>dH mom.mam.om mo~.ovm.nm mmm.m-.mm vmv.mmm.mm mmm.mmn.mm www.mmm.mm mom.mom.~m Honommncm macho . ucflmz woo 388m who.m~m.v Hom.>om.m mmm.~mm.m mao.mhm.m mom.m~v.m ~mm.mmm.a Hmm.mmm.a moanmummm> Nom.mmm.v mom.mvw.m omo.v~m.m mah.mmm.m mma.~mm.m mm>.mmm.m mmv.mmm.m mufionm mmm.mam oam.mmm mmm.mmh omm.HHm mme.hmm mmo.vmm mom.vnm Hoodoo mam.~mm.~ nem.mvm.~ ~mm.aom.a Hum.onm.a mam.mmm.a mam.mmm.a hma.mvn.a mcmcuomsm Hav.mmm oom.mmw mm>.hmm omv.ham mwv.hov vmm.mmm mmv.mvm one Hmm.vao mmm.mmo mmm.amo Hmm.omm mmm.mmm omm.omm mva.hmo mcoom Hmayo oco comnocm moo.hm~ omm.mma www.mmm mva.ooa mma.>wa mom.moa nmv.mha cuoo mmh.mom.m vmm.nom.m oam.mom.m mmm.mma.m mom.mmm.~ mm~.vvm.~ mmm.omv.~ cumuom women mmm.ama.va wmm.amv.ma mmm.omm.mH mmm.amm.ma Hob.aam.ma mmm.~Hm.NH mmm.mHm.~H mono coo; u wok 389.80 mmma amma onma mmma mmma nmma coma anew .omsqflucoo .N.v magma 71. u h .tha? . lmmma u u Ugo ma. . . 1A .I. A qu .mAcauUcomcu .Aé not NA. moAnoE so omucmmwuo mo Ho>\ Ho> 25 85.38 who monot— OE. vo.A moo. moo. vo.A 4(ooo. Aoo. Aeo. moo. coo. emo.A vo.A mmo.A vo.A moo.A muouudmoom use ecu mocuweé Amo.A moo.A omo. emo.A moo.A moo. omo.A soo.A mmo.A moo.A soc. on.A oso. mom. uouodmnom rucummSAa use 0mmu8>¢ Accounom oAA.A ooo.A moo. moo. omo.A seo.A omo.A moo. ohm. omm. moo.A ooA.A Aoo.A moo.A moon mmA.A oo~.A moA.A oMA.A Aso. MAo. vo. one. coo. omo. coo.A meo.A mmo. ooA.A rAAz moo. mmo.A ooo.A vo.A omo. moo. moo. ohm. Noo.A Amo.A vo.A ooo. coo. moo. emu: ouuAsoo ooo A moo . omo . mmo A coo A moo. Amo A 3A A moo A vo A com . moo A ooo . oom . 835mg xuouwm>oe moo.A ooo. mom. ooo.A mmo. omo. omo. omm. mom. omo.A omo.A omo.A omo.A coo.A udppdunsm menu Homo: How 0mmw02< Ameouosm mmo. ooo. com. com. moo. Nmo.A omo.A omo.A moA.A omA.A soo. ooo.A Amo.A vo.A wonmudmm> AAA.A Amo. ooo.A moo. woo. «so. woo. woo. woo. m-.A oA~.A omm.A om~.A MAm.A wuashh omo.A ooA.A «so. AAA.A moo.A moo. oom. omm. ohm. AAA.A ooo.A omo. coo.A Noo.A pseudo so A vo . 2A A omo A vo . ooo A mum . moo . Rm . moo A omA A omo . ooo A com . 8888.0. moo. omo. AoA.A AoA.A omo. Amo. oom. mmo. moo. omm. Aoo.A soN.A AoA.A moA.A one «mo. ooo.A moo. moo.A coo. coo. on.A coo. moo.A AoA.A vo.A meo.A Aom. ooo.A :mdnoom coo. vo.A ooo.A omo.A vo. omo. mom. moo. moo. moo.A ooo. omo.A ~A~.A oo~.A choc omA.A moo.A com. oom. omo.A coo. mom. mom. Aom. mom.A omo. woo. woo. MAo.A demoed woman com. coo.A ooo.A ooo.A omm. mom. com. com. moo. moo. ooo.A omo.A oNo.A ooA.A deem muwpnaeno mooA AomA osmA mooA oooA sooA oomA momA oooA momA mooA AomA oomA mmmA woo» NooAuommA .muoooowo xuouwmsau can nacho poems new mucooOuo csAm> AmoAuoumar\muoocouo chm> coumEAuum no ooaumm .m.s 0Ahmo 72 It was then suspected that the fluctuations in quantity of fertilizer application, natural disasters , variations in the hectares irrigated or nutter of mechanized fanm tools were responsible for the divergence of VPtAIPt ratios from unity. Subsequent enquiry showed no 1musua1 variation in the above mentioned factors. Since it is two out of thirteen projective equations that have serial correlation, and since no obvious explanations for their behavior is found, he have to he resigned to it and attribute it to chance occurrence. Since output from the nonstructural projective equations are eventually fed into tle structural identities, we look at the overall VPtNP t ratios listed under "average for two subsectors" (last row of Table 4.3) . These overall VPtNP t ratios do not diverge significantly from unity. Their implications for study results--i.e. the resulting per capita incote stream to the farm producer—in Chapter Ix, however, should be recognized and taken into due consideration.9 The remaining part of this chapter investigates the overall coefficient of determination R2 for Taiwan' 5 agricultural value products . Overall Coefficient of Determination The equation for R2 is as follows: '72 2 )3 (Y. - Y.) 2 .59 J. 1 R = 1 —, 72 _ 2 2: (Y. -Y) '59 1' 9The 14-year average (1959-1972) of the vp/vp ratios is .998. That means , despite annual divergence between the estimated value products and the recorded value products from 1959 through 1972, in a longer period of time, it averages out to unity. 73 Values from the last rows of Table 6.1 and 6.2 are entered as Yi and Yi' respectively. The resulting R2 is .9899, which means that, via identities and accounting components in Tables 4.1 and 4.2, 98.99 percent of the variation in the value products was associated with variations in the independent variables of the corresponding equations and the given factors of crqaped hectarage and price. Having delineated the methodological approaches in Chapter II , data colstruction in Chapter III, and the resulting regression. equations in Chapter IV, the following chapters will present the projected con- sequences to alternative policy measures. Implications of these alternative policy measures and analysis of the projected results will accompany each of the selected alternative policies . CHAPTER V PROJECTED CONSEQUENCES UNDER POLICY ALTERNATIVE I This chapter is concerned with the presentation of the projected consequences of policy alternative one—trend policy. This chapter con- tinues projections of : 1) major crop prices; 2) relative changes in crop prices; 3) hectares cropped; 4) per crop cash expenditure; 5) crop pro- duction 6) value products from crop and livestock subsectors; 7) per capita incore streams to the farm and nonfarm populations; and 8) past and future incore differentials between the two sectors of Taiwan's population. Comparisons of income streams and analysis of consequences to this policy relative to alternatives will be presented in Chapter IX. great In Chapters III and IV, physical production of crops is estimated asaftmctionofperrectarecashexpenditlres. Andtheperhectare cash expenditures are in turn a fmetion of the crops' relative price changes. In making projections, therefore, prices of major crops are first detenmined. 1 1The average price at the bottom of Table 5 . l is derived in the same mamer as ingTable 3.3 of Chapter III vgwith one exception. In an equation 9 9 PE P. .H Q,insteadon,Q isused a 1:1 121‘ 151 t Qt t/ 131. t t t—l for Years 1974 through 1984. Since the average price is used here only as a benchmark to detenmine the relative price changes from one year to the next, this substitution of Qt-l for projective purposes is not likely t? appreciably affect the outcore of relative price change ratios as listed in Table 5.2. 74 75 Table 5.1 presents the linear trend crop prices while Table 5.2 represents the resulting ratios of relative price changes . 2 According to alternative I , crop prices only increase gradually and the resulting per capita income stream to the farm person also increases gradually.3 Table 5.3 presents the hectares cropped per major crop. One study, basing its estimates of future crop hectarages on "various authorities," suggests that " the total hectarage of rice will be reduced by 150 hectares 4 per year." However its estimates are less than one-one hundredth of the 5 recorded data from 1970 through 1973. The trend projections made in this study are much closer to reality than tle above mentioned study. P- /P 2Table 5.2 is arrived at via the following equation: 1t at , where P stands for average price for year t. P. /P at lt—l at-l 3Note that Table 5.1 1973's prices are not included among the pro- jected, because historical price data on those crops for 1973 have been made available. The prices in 1973 saw a marked increase over the past trend. For example, the prices for the nine major crops for 1972 and 1973 are as follows: (Unit: NT$/1,000 kgs.) Year Rice Sheet Corn Soybean and Tea Potato Other Beans 1972 5, 952 973 3, 576 6 , 466 22 ,188 1973 8, 349 1, 212 4 , 843 10,632 33,632 Sugar- Peanut Fruits Vegetables cane 1972 317 8, 485 3 , 309 2 , 567 1973 309 10, 295 3, 333 3, 284 Since this Chapter is concerned with trend projections historical data of 1973 are included as part of the "trend." Along Tenn Projectiols of Supply, Demand and Trade for Selected Agricultural Products in Taiwan, (Taiwan: The Research Institute of Agricultural Ecmomics, 1970). po 79. 5The above mentioled long term projection was made in 1969. The rice hectarage cropped for the period of 1970 through 1973 are: 776,139; 753,451; 741,570 and 724,164, respectively. It shows an average decrease ooo.o mmo.a ooo.o ooo.m omm.m ooA.m mmo.m vo.m omo.~ ooo.~ Amm.~ ommuoac om~.o oem.e ~mo.o oom.o vo.m mA~.m ~oo.s moo.o mAA.o Aoo.m omo.m noaoouomo> oom.o omo.o moo.m moo.m aoA.m oom.o moo.o moo.o osA.o ~oo.m omo.m weapon Aoo.mA osA.mA moo.~A os~.~A soo.AA oom.AA omo.oA Aom.oA ooA.oA AAo.o omo.o ocsmoo mm coo. moo omo vo mom oom mom «mm omm omm oAm ocoouooom oom.oo ome.mo oom.mo oom.Ao omm.om AAm.sm moo.mm Ase.mm soo.~m «Am.om sAo.o~ moo AAo.o oom.o ooA.o omo.o ooho memo coma mmAd moms. the moms. memom uofio coo cmoosom oom.o oom.o Noo.o moo.m ome.m ~Ao.m AA~.m vo.m omo.o ooo.o moo.v . cuco mmo.~ «Ao.A vo.A on.A Amo.A mom.A Amo.A mom.A oo~.A o-.A omA.A ‘ohouomAuoosm omm.AA ooo.oA oom.oA moo.o sAm.o ooA.o omm.o omm.o ooo.o omo.e oom.o ocem .mmx oooA\o.H_z coho oooA mooA NooA AooA oooA meoA oooA oomA oooA mooA oooA woo» $3-33 .5389 5. wound coho omouo>< can 88o noon: .46 ocean coooonowo 3833 m3 Ah vome no Tmmx 084$.sz oomwo omcwgo u m 6.853 Tom The eooA.. . ..msoA u w oco o.. . ..A u A wow m\ w o max we 89 oosamwhc owm oAhmw mace ca 838 77 ooo.A AAo.A ooo.A sAo.A soo.A AAo.A vo.A moo.A ooo.A moo.A moo.A womanhooo> mso. sso. ooo. ooo. moo. ooo. moo. ooo. ooo. ooo. AsA.A nwwoww smo. moo. ooo. ooo. smo. moo. ooo. «so. moo. mso. ooo. ,_ oscmoo ooo. moo. moo. ooo. Aeo. moo. ooo. ooo. ooo. ooo. ooo.A w ocmcwmooo ooo. oso. moo. Aoo. moo. soo. ooo. ooo. soo. ooo. ooo. , moo ooo. ooo. ooo. ooo. ooo. ooo. ooo. smo. Aoo. ooo. mos. mcmoo woeoc ocm dooosoo ooo. moo. ooo. ooo. omo. ooo. ooo. ooo. ooo. ooo. ooo. . cwoc moo. ooo. ooo. moo. ooo. moo.A ooo. moo. ooo. ooo. ooo. cumwco.woosm moo. ooo. Aoo. ooo. moo. ooo. oso. ooo. Aoo. ooo. ooo. H_ oowm ocwo ooumooA monoooA monAooA AouoooA oonomoA osuosoA osussoA souoeoA osuosoA osuosoA oenmmoA woo» mmmalvbma .H gouge»? ounce Hood: awesome Fm ocean oonu wmowweé 8 933mm mmcmcu mono menu .45 mouflmm .N.m magma 78 hmc.~dh.a mva.hmo.a mom.moo.a Avm.vvo.a ovm.omo.a mmo.moo.a mmm.mwm.a mom.mmm.o nom.mom.a me.mmm.A omv.mvm.a Hodoé mom.wv~ vmm.mmm mmm.mmm ooo.mam www.mom Hoo.oom mma.mma moo.vma mwm.oma mow.moa mmm.aoa mvoouooo> moh.omm mmo.omm mmo.mo~ vvo.ama ooo.mna mvv.ooa mHH.HmH mmm.vva Hmm.vma vmm.mma ooo.maa moodwm vom.om vcm.ho moo.mo 0mm.om hmo.Am mmm.mm omm.vh mmn.mh ava.hm hememm mmo.om uncomo mam.mm omm.mm hhH.mm www.mm mom.mm mmm.om mm>.om mmH.Hm mmm.am Noo.mm oav.mm mcoowoosm mmm.m~ mvm.¢~ o~m.v~ mmm.mm mmm.mm mam.om mom.hm omm.>~ omm.w~ www.mm mam.m~ owe vw¢.om mam.~m who.mm mmm.vm HmA.om www.mm How.mm mmv.av mmm.mv mmm.mv ova.hv mcoom Honuo . too cooomcm moi: ooo.: 3.vo omo.oo voom Aoomm mmmmm ooomm moo.mm mooom omiom Eco Nmo.VMN mmm.vmm mom.mmm noo.mmm www.mmm mmm.mmm mmm.mmm NoH.Nmm mmo.amm oov.Amm mmO.Amm Ououoo umo3m h©¢.¢Mh oov.th mmm.mmm mom.ovm nA~.Nv> moa.vvm vAA.ovm mmo.moo on.om> moo.mmm ooo.vmm moom meouomm I ocuo vmmd mmmm NmmH ammo omma mmmA momA homo oomA mmmA vmma woo» vmmalvmma .cozmoe Cm owaoowu monouoo: mo mCOoquhOwo conflueuomoo .m.m magma 79 Using the data contained in Table 5.1 through 5.3, a process similar to that used for the corputation of Tables 3.5 and 3.6 is used to generate projected values of per hectare cash expenditures and per hectare yields. Tables presented in Appendix B carry out such processes. Values in column 8 of each of these tables are transcribed into Table 5.6 which represents data on projected cash expenditures for major crops, 1973 through 1984. In colbination with regression coefficients presented in Qlapter IV, data contained in Table 5.4 are used to compute the per hectare production of major crops, 1973-1984. The resulting projected per hectare productions of these crops are listed in Table 5.5.6 The next step is to compute total value products from these major crqas via the identity: 9 TVPE Z P. XQ. 'XH. , fori=1,. . .,9and i=1 J‘t 1t 1t t = 1973,. . .,1984 where: Pi = the unit price for time t, t Qi = the per hectare yield of a crop for t, t Hi = the number of hectares crOpped for time t. t of 17,325 hectares per year. The decrease has more than a hundred times faster than that projection. This rapid decrease in rice area cropped in recent years could be due to unforeseen, and hence unusual, circum- stances. The log linear estimates made in this study, though appearing to be higher than the 1970-1973 data, are much closer to reality than that made by the study cited. 61973's projected crop productions are very close to the historical data which have recently been made available . 80 mmo.mA omo.oA on.oA vo.mA oma.mA mmm.AA ooo.oA soA.oA smm.o ooo.o on.o moo.o oomwoao vo.om omo.mm mom.Am osm.om omm.sm ooo.om oma.mm moo.Am omo.om ooo.oA ooo.»: ome.oA moAhmwooo> sA~.~m ooo.Am Aoo.om oom.om ooo.om omo.om ooo.mm mom.om AAm.m~ ooA.o~ mom.Ao Aoo.sA . newcwo Amm.o oom.m ooo.m omo.m oos.o mom.o vo.o som.o moo.o moo.o moo.o oom.o wacmoo moA.oA moo.oA oom.oA Aom.oA omo.mA ooo.mA oom.mA mso.mA vo.mA mAA.mA oos.AA ooo.AA ocmcwmoco moo.o ooA.o mos.m ooo.m AAA.m ooo.m soA.m moo.m omo.~ mom.m ooA.m mom.~ W moo ooo.m ooA.m mmo.m mom.m mmm.~ ooo.m vo.m oAm.m soA.m moo.m omo.m ooo.o ncmoo wmcoc mom cmohsco ooo.o ooo.o oeo.m ooo.o mom.o moo.m moo.o moo.o moo.o moo.o moo.o ooo.o dwco ooo.oA mmo.oA ooo.oA omo.o oom.o ooo.o ooo.o omo.o vo.m mom.m ooo.o ooo.o oumwoo wooso ooo.o Aso.m ooo.o moo.o oom.s ooo.m moe.o vo.o oo~.o smo.o omo.o Amm.o oowm nowmwoom\moz mono oooA mooA mooA AooA oooA osoA osoA osoA oooA oooA oooA mooA woo» oooAumooA A 98532 modem wouwo .5389 5 89.0 8.82 wow mowownwwoooa ammo oowuomowo 6.... vomw. 81 omo.Am moo.om mom.oA mes.oA soo.oA oem.oA mom.mA AAo.oA moo.mA ooA.mA ooo.mA moo.AA emvomwooo> oom.oA som.sA emo.sA .smo.sA oAm.eA ooo.oA Amm.oA ooA.oA ooo.oA omm.oA Aam.oA ooA.oA mwmowo oom.A aom.A mom.A oom.A oom.A omm.A oAm.A oom.A oeN.A osm.A omm.A Ao~.A wocmoo som.mo omo.mo aom.mo omo.mo Aoo.mo ooo.mo ooo.mo omA.mo oom.Ao omo.Ao mom.Ao oom.oo ocmowmoco moo.A osm.A moe.A moo.A emm.A omm.A AoA.A mAA.A mAA.A moo.A ooA.A mmo moo ooo.A omo.A on.A oAm.A ooA.A mom.A omm.A osm.A AAo.A oom.A ooo.A mmo.A memoo woeoc mom cmocsco moo.m ome.m mom.m omm.m Aom.m msA.m oAA.m moo.m AAo.m moo.m vo.m Amo.m cwoo oAm.om ooo.oA omo.oA ome.oA Aoo.oA moo.oA ooo.oA oeo.sA mom.mA omo.oA vo.oA oom.oA cwmwmm ooo.m moo.m emo.m omo.m seo.m Aoo.m moo.m moe.m ome.m Aom.m. omm.m omo.m odor nowmwcom\.mow coho oooA mooA mooA AooA oooA oooA oooA sooA oooA omoA oooA mooA wmow oooAumooA .H o>awmcwoumm_ooAAoo woods cmsame cw mocwu woomz.wo onAw.owmwcom_woo_mowoooowo .o.o oAhmo 82 Table 5.6, colum 1 shows the projected value products for these nine major crops throlgh time. Column 2 represents the projected total value products from the time period of 1973 through 1984.7 Table 5. 6. Projected Total Value Products from Nine Major Crops and from All Crcps in Taiwan Under Policy Alternative I , 1973-1984 Year (1) (2) Total Value. Products NI'S = Million Nine Major CrOps 1973 40,476 43,711 1974 41,889 45,236 1975 45,682 49,330 1976 50,310 54,331 1977 55,411 59,839 1978 61,202 66,093 1979 67,717 73,128 1980 76,282 82,377 1981 85,868 92,730 1982 94,950 102,537 1983 107,126 115,687 1985 120,736 130,385 In Table 5.7, we present the total cost to the nine major crops and to all the crops. Column 3 of Table 5.7 shows the net incore to the 7During the past fifteen years (1959-1973) , the total value pro— ducts from these nine major crops accounted for the following percentages of the total value products from all crops: 1959, 93. 7%; 1960, 93.6%; 1961, 92. 8%; 1962, 92.9%; 1963, 91.0%; 1964, 92. 3%; 1965, 92.1%; 1966, 92.9%; 1967, 91. 9%;1968, 92.3%; 1969, 93.2%; 1970, 93.1%; 1971, 92.9%; 1972,91. 9%; and 1973, 93.0%. Tte average percentage was 92.6%. These percentages were obtained by summing the annual value products of all crops. (See Taiwan Agricultural Yearbooks.) Dividing the WP3 fromthema major orcropsbythatfroma1__l_ crops results intheabove figures. For the period 1974 through 1984, we assume average annual TVP from minor crops to be 7. 4 percent of the total. 83 farm population from the crop subsector. That added onto income from the livestock subsector will be the farm population's income from farming activities. 8 Table 5.7. Total Cost for the Nine Major Crops, for all the Crops, and the Total Net Incore from the Crop Subsector in Taiwan Under Policy Alternative I, 1973—1984 Year (1) (2) (3) TC to Nine Major Crops TC to All Crops TVP-TC NT$:Millicn 1973 14,498 15,571 28,140 1974 16,920 18,204 27,032 1975 18,415 19,777 29,553 1976 20,063 21,548 32,782 1977 21,889 23,509 36,331 1978 23,848 25,612 40,481 1979 26,144 28,079 45,049 1980 28,879 31,017 51,361 1981 32,070 34,444 58,287 1982 34,517 37,140 65,397 1983 38,005 40,818 74,869 1984 41,873 44,971 85,413 8 Total cost to be the nine major crops are the summation of Total Cash Expenditure and the cost of hired labor. From Reports of Farm Record Keeping Families, we calculated that the cost to hired labor per cropped hectare—m through 1972 constituted the following per- centages of per hectare cash expenditure: 9.4%, 13.0%, 15.2%, 15.3%, 17.8%, 19.7%, 15.3%, 19.9%, 19.8%, 19.7%, 21.8%, 24.3%, 24.6% and 31%. For the years 1973 through 1984, the linear trend gives the following percentages: 28.7%, 30.4%, 32.2%, 34.1%, 36.1%, 38.2%, 40.4%, 42.8%, 45.3%, 47.9%, 50.8% and 53.7%. These figures, especially the latter years, present a picture of rapid cost increases to hired labor on farm. As based on repeated statements from agricultural economists in Taiwan, labor costs will increase. But the increased costs to hired farm labor in the future, as will be shown shortly, can be offset by the increased incore from nonfarming activities by farmers. The figures in colum l of Table 5.7 are the sum of the following: 1) the sum of go. - mi fori=1,. . .,9andt=l973,. . .,1984. i=1 J't: t C the per hectare cash expenditures listed in Table 5 4 and, 84 Livestock Given the estimated regression coefficients for livestock slaughter, poultry meat, milk and poultry egg productions in Chapter IV, and given the trend values of their respective independent variables , we present the projected productions of these four livestock categories in Table 5. 8. Table 5. 8. Projected Livestock Production in Taiwan Under Policy Alternative I, 1973—1984 Year (1) (2) (3) (4) Livestock Slaughter Poultry Production Milk Eggs 1,000 Head 1,000 Head 1,000 Ton Million 1973 5,124 29,697 30 1,341 1974 5, 458 25 ,549 35 l, 185 1975 5,813 28,915 40 1,331 1976 6,191 29,876 45 1,449 1977 6,594 30,854 51 1,576 1978 7, 023 31, 836 60 l ,715 1979 7,480 32,813 86 1,866 1980 7,967 33,773 78 2,031 1981 8,485 34,698 70 2,220 1982 9,037 36,127 103 2,404 1983 9,625 37,303 118 2,616 1984 10,252 38,535 135 2,847 With the above data and the linearly projected unit prices for livestock, poultry meat, milk and eggs, we may compute the value products for these livestock items. Table 5.9 presents these value products from 1973 through 1984 . H = nurber of hectares cropped. And, 2) the sum from 1) above plus the annual cost to hired farm labor. i.e. X (1 + Y)where: X = the sum from 1) above, and Y = the percentage of hired labor cost to per hectare cash expenditure as presented in this footnote earlier. 85 From Rgorts from the Farm Record Keeping Families in Taiwan, ratios of livestock expenditures--including livestock purchases and feeds—to receipts from livestock raising are computed from 1958 through 1972. These ratios form a trend which are used to project the ratios of cost to receipts for the years 1973-1984. There is a gradual decrease over time in the cost to receipts ratios, possibly due to economies of scale. These ratios are computed in conjunction with column 5 of Table 5.9 to reach the net incore from livestock raising activities as shown in Table 5.10. . Summing tn the net incomes from farming activities (Table 5.7, 001mm 3) and from livestock production (Table 5. 10) we obtain the total net incore to farm population in Taiwan for the projected period of 1973-1984. Table 5.11 presents the projected total incore, total farming population and the per capita farm incore from farming activities under policy alternative I. 9 Table 5.11 column 3 needs further explanation. According to 1971 Taiwan Demograph Fact Book, the birth and death rates for farm and nonfarm populations in 1971 were nearly identical. We then prowed to divide the officially projected total population in Taiwan into farm and nonfarm categories . 10 9This per capita incote from farming activities has yet to be added onto per capita income from "nonfarming activities" to arrive at the per capita total fanm total income. The projected population figures from 1973 through 1981 are fron official sources, [The Fourth Manpower; Derelgggnt Plan, (Taiwan: Council for International Economic Coperaticn and Development), December, 1972] , wrereas these for 1982 to 1984 are from log linear projection. 1.01971 Taiwan Deioqraphic Fact Book, Republic of China, (Taiwan: Ministry of Interior, ROG) , November 1972. In this publication the population is divided into three categories: City, urban township and 86 Table 5.9. Projected value Products from.1ivestock Subsector in Taiwan, 1973-1984 lkxnr (l) (2) (3) (4) (5) Livestock Poultry .Milk. Eggs Total‘VPs Million.NT$ 1973 12,477 1,960 150 2,031 16,618 1974 13,289 1,788 165 1,815 17,057 1975 14,323 2,111 182 2,062 18,678 1976 15,750 2,300 200 2,270 20,520 1977 17,316 2,468 220 2,497 22,501 1978 19,032 2,674 242 2,748 24,696 1979 20,929 2,888 268 3,024 27,108 1980 23,008 3,151 293 3,304 29,746 1981 25,294 3,366 323 3,662 32,645 1982 27,817 3,685 355 4,027 35,884 1983 30,522 3,991 392 4,432 39,337 1984 33,615 4,316 431 4,877 43,239 Table 5.10. Projected Net Income foam livestock Production in Taiwan, 1973—1984 Year Net Income Livestock Production .Million.NT$ 1973 9,123 1974 9,501 1975 10,552 1976 11,758 1977 13,050 1978 14,521 1979 16,129 1980 17,937 1981 19,913 1982 22,140 1983 24,507 1984 27,241 87 Table 5. 11. Projected Total Income, Total Farm Population, and Per Capita Net Farm Incote from Farming Activities in Taiwan Under Policy Alternative 1, 1973-1984 Year (1) (2) (3) (4) Total Net Incore Total Population Total Farm Per Capita Farm Population Income from Farming Activities 1,000 Persons 1,000 NT $ .MillioniNTS Persons 1973 37,264 15,505 6,033 6,177 1974 36,533 15,814 6,117 5,972 1975 40,106 16,124 6,202 6,467 1976 44,540 16,438 6,286 7,086 1977 49,381 16,755 6,372 7,750 1978 55,002 17,073 6,458 8,517 1979 61,178 17,391 6,544 9,349 1980 69,298 17,706 6,629 10,454 1981 78,200 18,015 6,712 11,651 1982 87,538 14,414 6,798 12,876 1983 99,376 18,770 6,879 14,446 1984 112,654 19,132 6,960 16,187 rural township. The sum of city and urban populations (p. 176-77) is 9,210,966. However, data from Statistical Abstract of the Republic of (Irina, 1972 and Taiwan Agricultural Yearbook, 1972 and from Taiwan Statistical Handbook, 1972 indicate that the nonfarm population in Taiwan 1971 Should.be 9,036,181 rather than 9,210,966. This means, 1.8976% of the urban township dwellers in that year belongs to farming population. On.page 98 of the same Demographic Fact Book, we add up the live births from cities and urban townships and multiply that by 1,8976%. That means, that many births, categorized under urban townships, belong to the farming population. .Adding that onto live births listed for "rural townShip" dwellers andnwe obtain the total live births for farming sector of the population. Similarly, we subtract those live births (those added.onto the farming sector) from.city and urban township categories, and.dbtain.live births for the nonfarm sector of Taiwan's population. Those birth figures were divided by their respective population sizes for the year 1971. Therefore we obtain birth rates for fam and nonfarm populations to be 2.56 and 2.52 per thousand.persons, respectively. The same approadh.is used to calculate farmland nonfarm death rates for 1971, and the results are: 5.14% for farm and 4.73% for nonfarm popula- tions. That.means, in the year 1971, the birth and death rates for the two sectors of Taiwan's population were very close. And since the projec- tion period for this study is from 1973 through 1984, and since the 88 According to Taiwan's long Term Economic Develoment Plan, from 1973 to 1982, 136,000 farm perscms actively engaged in agricultural production in Taiwan will leave the farms.” Consequently, we distri- bute the officially estimated 136 , 000 persons evenly over the ten-year period of 1973-1982 and calculate the projected farm population accordingly.12 Column 4 of Table 5.11 shows the projected per capita incore from farming activities to the farm person, 1973-1984. For analytical purposes, we now proceed to present the estimated per capita incotes of farm persons from both farming and nonfarm activities, and to compare them from 1959 to 1972. The per capita farm incole for the year 1959 through 1972 is obtained by summing up the net incomes to the farm person from both projected estimates of total population is available from the goverment sources, we assure that the year 1973 and the birth/death rates for farm and nonfarm populations on Taiwan had been equalized. This is likely, and it also facilitates the division of the projected total pqaulation between farm and nonfarm sectors. 1:I‘Republic of China, Taiwan Province's IonLTerm Economic Develqgent Plan, (Taiwan: Council for International Economic Cooperation and Development, 1972) , p. 61. 12That means, for each of the years from 1973-1984, a net of 13,600 persons migrated off fanm. In the past fifteen years (1959-1973) , the percentage of those engaged in farming activities to total farm pcpulation"t" were: 37.2%, 34.9%, 35.0%, 35.0%, 35.1%, 35.6%, 35.1%, 35.3%, 34.4%, 35.7%, 36.2%, 37.4%, 38.6%, 39.0% and 38.6%, respectively. And the trend for the years 1974 through 1984 are: 38.1%, 38.3%, 38.6%, 38.8%, 39.1%, 39.3%, 39.6%, 39.8%, 40.1%, 40.3%, and 40.6%, respectively. Thus, with 13,600 actively producing farm persons migra- ting off farm each year between 1973 and 1982, and with the above calculated rates , we reach the values of total farm population in Column 3 of Table 5.11, commencing with. the historical data of 1972's farm population being 5,947,325. T’re equation for 1973's farm population for instance, is: 5,947,325 [1 + (officially projected birth rate for l972--death rate)] '- 13,600 = 6,032,822. .386 89 farming and nonfarming activities.13 Table 5.12 presents the farm, nonfarm, national and the ratio of per capita farm to nonfarm incotes. Per capita nonfarm incote is derived by the following eiuation: (Yt " Yf) Pft Pnft Ynft = Yt + where: Ynft = the per capita nonfarm income, Yt = the national per capita incore t Yf = the per capita incote of a farm person t Pf = the farm pqaulaticn t and, t Pnf = the nonfanm population t. t Column 4 of Table 5.12 indicates that the differential between per capita farm and nonfarm incores has been increasingly tilting in favor of nonfarm persons. The concern now is whether the continuation of the trend is a desirable featire or not. Table 5.13 presents the future incore differences between the two sectors of the population in Taiwan, 1973-1984. Values in column 1 of Table 5.12 are arrived at in the following manner. The per capita farm incore includes 1) revenues from crop and livestock subsectors, and 2) incote from nonfarming activities. Revenues from crqa and livestock subsectors are obtained via: ' 2 >3 TRi =TVP. -TCi -TCi,fori=land2, and i=1 t 1t t t t = 1959,. . .,1972, 13 This is arrived at by subtracting the province ' s total costs to crap and livestock raising from the province ' 3 total revenues derived from these two subsectors, divided by the fam population of that year. The per capita farm incote from engagement in nonfarming activities are derived from Reports from the Farm Record Keeping Families in Taiwan , 1959-1972. 7' - Table 5.12. Per Capita.Farm.and.Nonfarm Income in Taiwan, 1959-1972 ' (2) Their (1) (3) (4) Faint National Nonfarm1 Ratio of Per Capita Farmlto Nonfanm —1 3 Percent 1959 2,030 3,489 4,819 42.1 1960 2,589 4,557 6,508 39.8 1961 2,836 4,953 6,990 40.6 1962 2,972 6,139 7,239 41.1 1963 2,977 5,782 8,291 35.9 1964 3,956 6,708 9,061 43.7 1965 4,047 7,032 9,518 42.5 1966 4,069 7,677 10,592 38.4 1967 4,370 8,461 11,771 37.1 1968 4,676 9,554 13,378 35.0 1969 4,035 10,449 15,271 26.4 1970 5,124 11,727 16,289 31.5 1971 5,320 13,148 18,310 29.1 1972 5,821 14,904 20,649 28.2 with the cost to hired labor included in the calculation of TC. The farmer's income fnomxmmukmming activities is derived.fromlReports from Farm.Record Keeping Families in.Taiwan. From 1959 through 1972, each year the farmer's income fnomlrmfikmmung'activities is a percent.of his receipts from.farming activities. This series of percentages is used to make linear log projection from 1973 through 1984. Therefore, each.year, from 1973 through 1984, there is a projected percentage of the famer's income from:nonfarming activities to his receipts from.farming activities. The receipts from.farming activities are listed in Tables 5.6 and 5.9. From 1973 through 1984, each year's receipts from farming activities 91 Table 5.13. Projected Per Capita Farm and Nonfarm Income Streams in Taiwan Under Policy Alternative 1, 1973-1984 Year (1) (2) (3) (4) . Farm! National Nonfarm. Rati0< II the average per hectare value product t-l. 97 The estimated coefficients and resulting statistics are as follows: Yt = -.5007 + 1.0163 log x (.434) (.1049) R2 = .8951; F: <.0005; s: .0369; ts: .273; and <.0005. Once the average per hectare cash expenditures through time is calculated, the same process in deriving values of per crop cash expen- ditures as in Chapters III and V is used for this policy alternative (see Appendices A and B, tables) .3 These projected per crop cash expen- ditures are presented in Table 6. 3. The process of arriving at' these per crop cash expenditures is carried out in tables contained in Appendix C. From the projected per hectare cash expenditures listed in Table 6.3, and using the estimated coefficients presented in Chapter IV, the resulting per hectare yields of major crops are computed and are pre- sented in Table 6.4. Combining the information from 1) projected crop prices in Table 6.1; 2) the projected per hectare yields in Table 6.4; and 3) the projected cropped hectarages in Table 5.4, the projected total value products from these nine major crops are presented in Table 6.5. The computation of total value products from all crops, the total cost to a_1_]_._ crops (including costs to hired labor) and the net income from cropping activities are derived in the same manner as in Chapter V. As for income from livestock raising activities instead of resorting to separate calculation, the corputed results contained in Chapter V are 3The hectarages cropped per major crop under consideration are linearly predicted as in Table 5.3 since the resulting values have been more accurate than estimates made by several other authoritative sources . 98 mmm.m mmm.m mmm.m eem.m mme.m mmm.~ mem.~ mam.~ mmm.~ mem.~ mmm.~ mmtemem mmm.m Nee.m mmm.e omm.m mmm.m mee.e mmm.m mmm.m mme.m mm~.m mee.m mmehmummm> mem.m meo.e mem.m ~em.m me~.m mmm.m mmm.v mmm.e mem.m mee.e mmm.m mueehm eem.~e ee~.~e em~.Ne mmm.ee mem.ee oem.oe eem.ee mem.oe ome.oe mmm.m mme.m assume mme mmm «we mom mmm emm mmm emm mmm mmm mmm memoummsm mmm.em mem.mm mmm.~m mmm.em eme.em eem.om eme.m~ mmm.m~ mmm.m~ mme.m~ mem.m~ ems mmm.m mmm.m mme.m mmm.m mmm.m ~mm.m mme.m mm~.m mee.m mem.m eem.m memmm mango new emmhmom mmo.e mmm.m eom.m mem.m mmm.m ee~.m mee.m emm.e emm.m mme.m mmm.m euoo mem.e mmm.e mmm.e mom.e emm.e mmm.e emm.e em~.e mm~.e mme.e eee.e opmuom ummem mme.oe mem.m mme.m mme.m mem.m mmm.m mem.m mee.m ~mm.m emm.m mm~.m teem .mmVe ooo.e\m.ez mono emme mmme mmme emme emme mmme meme meme meme meme emme atom emmelsme .ee teenage... moeeom 895 sheets he 89.0 moat: no «Adena 85538 moeeom .es meets 99 A.mox ooo.e\szv moono eem mo moeuo momem>m mid! Quilt .88 chme Seekers e 88 no 80a u 88% e19 eLu mmN em um ue vmme.. . ..meme "_u now m.. . ..e u e How A\ .m "coeumooo moezoeeOM mou me>.oocemuno mew menu» menu Ge noncommem moeume moat mmo.e mmm. mmm. mmm. mmm. mmm. omm. eeo.e eoo.e emo.e vmm. mwenmummo> mmo.e omm. mmm. mmm. emm. mmm. eem. meo.e mmm. evo.e m¢~.e mueonm eoo.e mem. emm. mem. vem. mem. omm. mmm. omm. mmo.e mom. uocmom moo.e mem. mem. oem. eem. eem. mom. mmm. mmm. emo.e moe.e mcmoeomsm eoo.e eem. emm. mom. eem. mem. mmm. «mm. mem. emo.e emm. mos mmm. mom. mmm. mom. oem. mom. mmm. emm. mem. emo.e woe. .mcmom Hmsflu pom somehow moo.e mem. mom. mem. mem. mem. eom. wmm. mem. mmo.e mem. cuoo meo.e «mm. omm. mmm. mmm. emm. oem. moo.e mmm. omo.e mmm. ounuom umosm meo.e eem. Nem. mem. mem. eem. mom. ooo.e mmm. amm. vem. moem emme mmme mmme emme omme meme meme eeme meme meme veme mono Immme Immme lemme uomme (meme (meme neeme (meme Imeme Iveme (meme Home «vmmelweme .HH mpeumcamedm moeeoe 98.5 8389 5 80m 8.0 868$ 89583 8. m>eumemm 68.65 888 no.6 mo 3.38 .m . e henna 100 on.mmeflemme sm>eo m How musueoswmxm homo emuoa mmmememe. u m» .emmm. u mm fies $830888 .emmmmmee.e+ eat mmeemo mucweoemmmoo m new a use mesueoswoxo_umnu you mooeo acnme use: map you mmemuomn ooooono emuop mnu an muoueocwmxw ommo.memuomo ewe momem>m men mseeemeuesenen.om:HMpno .mooo.v mama oeumeufim 98» m eat em. 898mm gems £58: emge ewe HI 8 mum>m one me Now u u E. 88 x.ocm hwzsyewtom>eemo .U_xeocwmm¢.ce moenma mo mcsoeoorsoym u ooneeomcmuu mum Avmme.. . ..meme u u was m.. . ..e u e Homv emusueocwmxm ammo "coeumsuomce mo mmouoom me~.em eom.o~ mvm.me Noo.ee mew.me emm.¢e ewm.me mem.~e mem.ee mm¢.oe omm.m wmm.e mmmemem mme.mm meo.em www.mm meo.em Nee.mm www.mm oeo.m~ wmm.mm mee.mm vvm.om eem.me emm.¢e mmenmuomm> oem.mv emm.mm mom.vv eme.ev www.mm mmm.mm mm¢.vm mmm.~m mom.om mmm.mm wmm.o~ eoo.ee mueoum «om.m eme.m eom.e mme.e mme.m mum.m mem.m ove.m oem.m vme.m «we.¢ eeo.v uncmom eme.m~ eem.¢m mom.mm em~.em vwo.om vmm.we mme.me vmm.ee mme.me mmm.me meeeae mmv.oe momoemosm eme.m moe.m mem.¢ mo¢.¢ mom.m me¢.m moe.m vmm.m mmm.~ emm.~ eeo.~ Nmo.m mos mem.m eev.m mom.v Nvo.¢ eem.¢ om~.v eem.v mm~.¢ vom.¢ ome.v emm.m emm.m m:mmm.umgfio ocm cmonaom wvm.m mmm.m emv.m mme.m mem.m mmm.m Nmm.m om~.m ~me.m omm.m mm~.m mmm.¢ :goo mom.me mem.me mmm.me eem.~e vmv.ee mme.oe mme.oe eem.m moe.m mow.m emm.e eem.o cumuomrummsm omv.ee oem.ee Neo.oe Neo.oe mwv.m mmm.m mmm.m ewe.m omm.e Nov.e mvm.o moo.m moem Iwemuomm\maz mono emme name name emme omme meme meme eeme meme meme eeme meme Home vmmelmeme .He 306832 .mueeom H85 amine. ee 88 homes no.6. 88.93898 88 688: 8m @3888 .m .8 means 101 mmm.- eme.m~ omm.o~ emm.me mm~.me em~.ee emm.me emm.me mmo.me Nm~.me emo.me eme.ee mmehmummm> eme.- mm~.- mmm.e~ mmm.o~ omo.om eem.me mmm.me mme.me mmo.me emm.ee mmm.me eee.me mueehm eem.e eoe.e mmm.e mmm.e eom.e mem.e mmm.e mmm.e oee.e mmm.e mem.e ~e~.e panama em~.mm mem.mm eem.mm eee.em mme.mm eme.em mee.mm mm~.mm eem.em mmm.mm mmm.mm mmo.om memohtmsm eme.e mme.e eee.e meo.e mee.e eeo.e emm omm omm mmm mmm «me ems mmm.~ om~.~ meo.~ mem.e mem.e mmm.e mmm.e emm.e mmm.e mmm.e ~ee.e eom.e memmm_ehgeo tam emmhmom mem.m oem.m Nme.m emm.m mmm.m mme.m mmm.m mmm.m mmm.m mem.m me~.m eme.~ choc mmm.- eem.~m eme.- eem.e~ emm.em Nem.om eee.me emm.me mme.me mm~.me mmm.ee eem.me eptuom ummem emo.m mmo.m ~oo.m emm.m mem.m mem.m mme.m mee.m mmm.m mom.m mmm.m mmm.m . moem humuomadmx mono mmme mmme mmme emme omme meme meme eeme eeme meme eeme meme new» emmeumeme .ee 936682 moeeom 88: 5.35.. he 880 meet: .66 mtemee 888: 8a 88.883 ms meets 102 Table 6.5. Projected Per Hectare Value Product and Total Value Product for Major Cr0ps in Taiwan, Under Policy Alternative II, 1973-1984 Year Per Hectare VP Tbtal.VP NT $ NT$:.Million 1973 26,873 39,620 1974 28,391 43,792 1975 30,914 48,027 1976 33,765 52,860 1977 35,904 56,683 1978 38,733 61,555 1979 41,997 67,574 1980 45,658 74,251 1981 49,734 81,809 1982 54,912 91,440 1983 56,939 96,065 1984 65,212 111,580 used. This is done because the main source of income from livestock subsector is from livestock slaughter; and the independent variable explaining variations in the quantity of livestOCk slaughter is the national per capita income tel, whidh has a simple correlation of .995 with.pcpu1ation size whidh is the factor determining the crop prices under this policy alternative. For the sake of simplicity, therefore, no separate calculation is done for livestock slaughter under this alterna- tive. Summing the TR.from.the crop and livestock subsectors, subtrac- ting from them their respective costs, yields net income from farming activities as in Table 6.6 (the same as in Chapter V). .A150vas in.Chapter V, adding total revenue (column 2 of Table 6.6) to income from'fl farming activities by fanm persons we arrive at the total incore to 103 Table 6.6. Projected Total value Product, Total Cost and Net Revenue from All Crops in Taiwan Under Policy Alternative II, 1973-1984 Year TVP TC NR Million NT$ 1973 42,552 15,456 27,096 1974 47,033 21,443 25,590 1975 51,581 24,143 27,439 1976 56,771 26,614 30,157 1977 60,878 28,881 31,997 1978 66,111 31,422 34,688 1979 72,574 34,907 37,668 1980 79,745 38,956 40,780 1981 87,863 43,644 44,219 1982 98,207 49,053 49,154 1983 103,174 56,035 47,139 1984 119,837 60,094 59,743 farm persons. That, divided by the projected farm population, and in conjunction with projected national per capita income through time, the future per capita income stream to the nonfarm person permits the income ratios between populations of the two sectors of Taiwan to be derived under policy alternative II. (See Table 6.7) under policy alternative II, the earlier years see higher per capita incomes to the farmer than that.fromlalternative I. But the later'years under alternative II see a lower incensestream.than that of alternative I. Furthenmore, while under alternative I there is a slight upward trend in the ratios of "farm to nonfarm incote" (Table 5.13) , the income differences under alternative II as indicated by the ratios in Table 6.7 ShOW’a trend that further widens the per capita farm and nonfanm income gap. 104 Table 6. 7. Projected Per Capita Farm and Nonfarm Income in Taiwan ' Under Policy Alternative, II, 1973-1984 Year Incore Stream to National Per Income Stream to Ratio of Fanm Farm Person Capita Income Nonfarm Person to Nonfarm Incore NT 5 Percent 1973 7,936 17,855* 24,173 32.8 1974 7,915 17,924 24,238 32.7 1975 8,607 19,839 26,859 32.0 1976 9,508 21,959 29,669 32.0 1977 10,263 24,305 32,922 31.2 1978 11,232 26,902 36,435 30.8 1979 12,349 29,777 40,291 30.6 1980 13,584 32,959 44,553 30.5 1981 14,959 36,480 49,259 30.4 1982 16,759 40,378 54,201 30.9 1983 17,355 44,693 60,510 28.7 1984 20,769 49,468 65,877 31.5 *1973's natioral per capita incore figure is from recorded data. Since policy alternative I in Chapter V was considered wrong and inadequate in narrowing the income gap between the two sectors of Taiwan' 5 population, alternative II is even less acceptable. In the next chapter, we will examine conseqLences for farm and nonfarm income streams under policy alternative III. Instead of allowing trends to prevail (as under alternative I), or instead of permitting the gap between the per capita farm and per capita nonfarm income to widen (as under policy alternative II), the prices of sore key agricultural cormodities will be assured to be sxpported. In the next two chapters, policy alternatives III and IV will consider raising prices for key agricultural commodities in order to 105 enhancethefuturepercapitafanmincoteandtonarrowdomthe differences in incore streams between the farmer and nonfarm in Taiwan. CHAPTER VII PROJECTED (DNSEQUEBCES TO POLICY ALTERNATIVE III In Chapters V and VI, future farm and nonfarm income consequences of policy alternatives I and II have been presented. From the projected coisequences it was clear that neither the trend policy nor the policy which determines comodity prices according to population growth pattern are acceptable. The projections indicate that if either of these policies were adopted, per capita farm income would be approximately only one-third that of a nonfarmer by 1984 and the objective set forth in this study to "narrow the per capita income gap between the two sectors of Taiwan' 5 population" would not be attained. Therefore, there is a need to examine a third alternative policy, its feasibility and consequences. The third policy alternative involves sustained specified price support programs for rice, sugarcane and the livestock industry. Recognizing the low per capita incore streams to the farmer, the government in early 1974 announced plans to support prices for selected farm items. Among the crops whose prices will be supported are rice, sugarcane, corn and sorghum. At a later date, price supports for hogs were added. Actually announced support prices have been for rice and sugarcane only. This is mderstandable since rice is the chief crop in Taiwan and among all the crops it ranks second only to sugarcane products in value exported. The price of sugarcane is supported not 106 107 only because it has the highest export value among all crops, but also because of the number of farmers actively engaged in sugarcane pro- (Suction.l By supporting the price of sugarcane, a large sector of Taiwan's farm population may as a result reap the program's benefit. 'I'he announced 1974 support price for rice for the year 1974 was NT$ 10 per kg. for "Ponlai" rice and NI'S 8.5 for nonglutinous native rice. Weighting the quantities and value products of their annual production in 1973,2 the average supported price for rice in 1974 was 16.7 percent over the recorded price of 1973. This is significant not only on account of the large percentage increase in the price of rice from 1973 to 1974, but also because there already had been an unsual increase in the price of rice from 1972 to 1973. While the annual average increase for the price of rice for the past decade (1962-1972) was only 2.38 percent, there was a 40.3 percent price increase from 1972-1973 alone. And the fact that in 1974 the goverment was ready to support another 16. 7 percent increase in the price of rice over 1973's indicates that it is feasible and justifiable to oontine a price 1According to long Term Projections of Supply, Demand and Trade for Selected Agricultural Products in Taiwan (p. 88) , "there are approx- imately 140,000 individual cane growing farms," nearly one out of every six farms. 2In 1973 "Ponlai" rice constituted 83.7 percent of value product from rice production while the nonglutinous native rice 16. 3 percent. The weighting procedure for 1973 was as follows: 2 2 Z Z P. :0- j=1 i=1 1 3 . . .. . . Pa = 2 for 1 and j = l.to 2 (.Ponlai rice and nonglu- 22 Q. tinous rice) i=1 3 where: Pa = average price of rice (NTS/l, 000 Kgs. ) P. = Prices of "Ponlai and nonglutinous rice (NTS/l, 000 Kgs. ) and, Qj Quantity of "Ponlai" and nonglutinous rice (1, 000 Kgs. ) 108 support program for rice production. In this study, aside from accepting the announced 16.7 percent price increase for rice for the 1973 to 1974 period, it is believed that future increases cannot be as drastic for the following reasons: 1) if the price support level for rice were too high, the nonfarm sector of Taiwan' 5 population might react unfavorably to the policy measure; and 2) even if an average of 11 percent annual price increase from 1974 onward would result in a figure of NT$ 27,664 per 1,000 Kgs. , for rice which is close erough to the trend price of tea for that year which is not reasonable. Instead, we use an annual average increase of 9 percent in the price of rice from 19 75 through 1984. Like the price support program for rice, the support price for sugarcane production calls for the purchase of unsold quantity by the goverment agency at the supported price level . As for the price of sugarcane production, the announced support price for 1974 was 12.2 percent over that of 1973. Unlike rice which had a price increase from 1972 to 1973, there was a slight price decrease for sugarcane products from 1972 to 1973. For the years 1975 through 1984, we assume that the level of price smport for sugarcane production could be increased at an annual rate of 11 percent, the same rate of increase projected for national per capita income . 3 Having determined the future price policy for rice and sugarcane production, we set up Table 3.1. The future prices for the remaining major cups are identical with those in Table 6.1 where crop prices are a function of population size. 3The projected annual increase in rational per capita income is 11 percent. 109 Table 7.1 presents the prices of major crops in Taiwan under policy alternative III. The average per 1,000 kgs. price for each year (bottom row of Table 7.1) is determined in the same manner as in Table 5.1. From the prices in Table 7.1, the crop price changes relative to the average are tabulated and presented in Table 7.2. Similar to tables in Appendix C for Chapter VI are the projected per hectare cash expen- diture for major crops under policy alternative III. These are given in Appendix D. The values in column 8 of each of these said tables are transcribed onto Table 7. 3. The average per hectare cash expenditures (Table 7. 3 bottom row) are obtained via the same procedure as in Chapter VI where the per hectare cash expenditure for t is a function of the average per hectare value product of t-1. A comparison of average per hectare cash expenditure under policy alternatives I, II and III reflects that, with price support program for rice and sugarcane production at the levels suggested, much incen- tive is given to invest more heavily in farm production under policy alternative III. Given the estimated coefficients in Chapter IV, where per hectare yield is a function of per hectare cash expenditure, there is significant resulting increases in per hectare yield of the major crops. Table 7.6 in this chapter contains the projected per hectare yields of these major crops under policy alternative III. Comparing these projected per hectare yields with that of Table 5.5 and the Table 6.4 one may readily observe that not only the per hectare yield of rice and sugarcane see significant increases, but the retaining major crops also enjoy marked increases in per hectare yield. This is a result of 110 ~mm.m mmm.m ome.m ome.e mem.m eme.m mee.m mme.m -~.m mmm.~ mee.~ mmmemee mme.m Nee.m ~mm.m emm.e mmm.e mee.e mmm.m mmm.m emm.m mm~.m mee.m mmehmummm> eom.m meo.m mme.m mem.m eem.m ~mm.m mee.m emm.m mmm.m mme.m mmm.m theses oem.~e em~.~e mmm.ee mem.ee mo~.ee eem.ee oem.oe mem.oe ome.oe mme.m mmm.m machete mem eem eme Nee «mm mem emm mmm mmm emm mmm mamaummem mmm.mm mmm.mm mmm.mm mem.em eme.em mm~.om mmm.mm mem.m~ mmm.e~ meo.e~ mem.m~ the mmm.m emm.m Nme.m mem.m mmm.m mmm.m mmm.m mmm.m mee.m mmm.e eme.e memmm “mayo mam ammneem mme.m mem.m mee.m mem.m mmm.m mem.m mme.m emm.m mee.m mmm.m mmm.m . choc mee.e mmm.e mem.e mom.e eme.e mmm.e eem.e em~.e mmm.e mme.e eme.e opteoe_ummzm mmo.m~ eme.em mem.me eem.ee emm.me emm.ee mme.me mem.~e mem.ee emm.ee mme.m teem mmm eoe.e\mez( memo emme mmme mmme emme omme meme meme eeme meme meme meme new» emmenmeme .eee meeuteumeea.eueeom emcee sweets he macho hoemz.mo whoeum.tmaeenmuma eueeom .e.e meats 111 u edge ooo.e\w.e_zv u 5 ooeeec mono mmmHoZm u we "meg enureexekeee mmme.. . ..meme u m mam m.. . ..e u e sow m m om\ em no.3 gonna mum meow» mg 3 toucommem 83mm one... mmm. mmm. mmm. mem. eem. mem. eem. eem. mmm. mmm. mem. mmehmmmmm> mem. mem. mem. eem. mmm. mmm. mmm. emm. emm. mem. mmo.e mueshm mmm. mmm. emm. mmm. mmm. emm. emm. .emm. mem. mmm. eme. meemmm mmo.e mmo.e emo.e emo.e mmo.e mmo.e omo.e mmo.e meo.e ~mo.e mmm. mcmohmmsm mmm. mmm. mmm. mmm. mmm. mmm. emm. emm. mmm. mmm. mem. mme mmm. mmm. emm. mmm. mmm. mmm. mem. mem. mmm. mmm. mmm. memmm emgeo tam ammneom emm. emm. emm . emm. emm. emm. mmm. mmm. mem. mmm. mmm. choc mmm. emm. mmm. mmm. mmm. mmm. mmm. emm. mmm. eem. eem. outmoe mmmem ~eo.e meo.e eoo.e Neo.e moo.e moe.e moo.e eoo.e mmm. meo.e moo.e moem mmme mmme mmme emme omme meme meme eeme meme meme meme mono (mmme (mmme (emme lemme -meme (meme (eeme (meme (meme (meme (meme emm» .eee msemmehmpea_eueeom 889 5389 5 moeum echo mmmemze 63883 B m>emmemm 8898 mode mono 8 888 . m .e menme 112 mme.mm mme.mm Nom.mm ome.m~ em~.m~ emm.o~ mmm.me eem.me ome.me mmm.~e mmm.m mmm.e mmmemea emo.me mee.ee omm.oe mmm.mm ~m~.mm oom.mm mmm.e~ mmm.m~ emm.~m emm.o~ mm~.me emm.me mmehmmmmm> mee.mm emm.om ~mm.mm e-.em mem.em mmm.mm mmo.mm mem.mm mem.~m mmo.om mem.m~ eoo.ee mueshm mom.m emm.m mmm.m mme.m mmm.e moe.e emm.m mee.m mmm.m mmm.m oom.e eeo.m mmeemmm omm.mm moo.mm mmm.em mee.mm mee.mm mmm.mm emm.m~ mem.m~ meo.e~ ~mm.me eme.me mmm.oe mammemmsm ee~.m mmo.e emo.m mme.m eem.e mmm.m emm.m ~mm.m mee.m mme.~ eeo.m mmm.~ mms eem.m mom.e emo.m emm.m mmm.m eee.m mme.m eem.m moe.m eme.e mem.m emm.m memmmlumeeo new :mmneom mmm.~e mmm.ee emm.oe moe.m mee.m eem.m mem.e mem.m emm.m mom.m mme.m mmm.e eeoo mem.me ~m~.ee mee.me mmm.me mmm.me mme.me mmm.ee mmm.oe mee.m mmm.m -m.e eem.m ommuoe mmmem mem.em ooo.om mmm.mm mme.mm mme.em eem.me mme.me mmm.me eem.~e omm.oe mmm.m mom.m moem memmmmm\mez moeo mmme mmme mmme emme omme meme meme eeme meme meme meme meme hmmm mmmenmeme .eee 9365mm? moeeom 8c: 8389 he 800 .882 88 «message ammo 830mm emm emmomeoem .m .e meats 113 eem.em mmm.m~ mmm.mm ~me.~m emm.o~ mee.e~ mee.ee mmm.me emmrme mom.me mmm.ee mmehmmmmm> mmm.m~ mmm.mm mmm.m~ moe.- mem.- mmm.e~ meo.o~ omm.me mom.me mmm.ee mmo.me mueshm mmm.e emm.e mmm.e mmm.e eem.e mem.e eem.e mmm.e mem.e mmm.e eem.e meemme moe.e0e mem.mm emm.em mmm.mm mem.mm mem.mm emm.em eem.mm eem.em omm.mm mmm.~m memoummsm mme.e mme.e eoe.e meo.e mee.e eeo.e emm emm emm mmm mmm mma mmo.m eme.m eem.~ eem.m mmm.~ mmm.m eme.~ moe.~ emo.m mmm.e emm.e memmm emcee mam emmhmom mem.m omm.m mmm.m mmm.m mom.m mme.m mee.m emm.m mme.m mmm.m eme.m , choc emm.m~ mom.m~ emm.m~ mmm.mm mmm.~m mmm.~m mmm.mm omo.e~ emm.me omm.me mee.me ommmom mmmzm eem.m mmm.m me~.m mem.m eom.m .mme.m mom.m emm.m mee.e emo.e mee.m moem lmHouooa . mom . . . mono mmme mmme mmme emme emme meme meme eeme meme meme meme hmmm mmmeumeme .eee msemmehmmem_mmeeom emcee sheets he macho_uoemz.mo.memem mumummm_hmm_mmpomeoum .e.e means 114 heavier per hectare cash expenditures applied to all crops except tea. The price support programs for rice and sugarcane are assumed to yield benefits for other crops in terms of increased yields and value products. In other words, if the price support program for selected major crops be continued and sustained, less savings on farm will leak into industrial or service sectors. The increased profits on farm as a result of price support for rice and sugarcane productions will be retained for plow back investment in farms, not mly for rice and sugarcane productions but also for the other major crops. A corparison between Table. 7.3 and 6.3 attests to the positive effects of price support on per hectare cash expenditures and resulting per hectare yields on farm. Given the price support levels for rice and sugarcane production, which are higher than for the two previous "policies" and given the overall increases in per hectare yields of major crops, the farmer's revenue from cropping activities will increase . Furthermore , given the fact that the per capita incore of the fanm person from nonfarming activities is a percentage of the income from farming activities, his 4 total inome will be further enhanwd. An examination of projected results in Table 6.5 and 7.5 shows that the total value products from these nine major crcps in 1984 under alternative III almost doubled those of under alterrative II . This may be achieved by adopting the suggested levels of price support for rice and sugarcane for the next 11 years, the levels whidi are both moderate and seemingly feasible in View of the 1974's announced levels of price support. 4The relationship between the per capita income of farm person from farming activities and from his nonfarming activities was discussed in Chapter V. 115 Table 7 . 5 . Projected Average Per Hectare value Product and Total value Products of Major CrOps in Taiwan Under Policy Alterna- tive III, 1973-1984 Year Per Hectare Tbtal KHP$ INT$:.Million 1973 26,873 39,620 1974 34,851 50,553 1975 38,978 60,555 1976 43,811 68,586 1977 49,315 77,857 1978 55,026 87,450 1979 64,722 104,141 1980 71,367 116,060 1981 79,614 130,961 1982 89,689 149,351 1983 101,196 170,732 1984 114,288 195,552 Table 7.6. Projected Total value Product, Tbtal Cost and Net Revenue from All Crops in Taiwan Uhder Policy Alternative III, 1973-1984 Year TVP TC NR Million NT$— 1973 42,552 15,456 27,096 1974 54,294 21,443 32,850 1975 65,036 28,509 36,527 1976 73,662 32,182 41,480 1977 83,618 37,625 45,993 1978 93,921 43,369 50,552 1979 111,847 49,859 61,988 1980 124,648 69,435 64,213 1981 140,652 68,692 71,960 1982 160,403 79,094 81,309 1983 183,366 92,216 91,151 1984 210,022 107,751 102,272 116 As for the level of price support for hog production, the govern- ment announced that an arount of NT$ 1.5 billion (approximately U.S. $40 million) would be set aside to stabilize the prices of hog production. If the fog prices fall below that of the annually predetenmined level, then the govenment agency concerned would purchase the unsold quantity at that supported price level. To determine the level of price support for livestock production in this study, we assure that all livestock itets are covered by this program.5 During the 1962-1973 period, the average annual increase in the price of livestock slaughtered was only 2.51 percent. If considered in real money terms, there has been a price decrease. To smrt prices of livestock in terms of real money value and to meet the increased demand for meat products due to the rapid increases in per capita income in Taiwan, policy alternative III in this chapter assumes an annual price increase of 6 percent, cormencing with the year 1974. Considering the conservatively predicted 11 percent annual increase in the national per capita incore, a recomended 6 percent annual increase in the price of livestock items is moderate. As for the prices of poultry, milk and egg products, the trend values in Clapter V are adopted. Given the prices for both supported and unsupported crops, and given their respective predicted productions , the total value products 5Livestock slaughtered include hogs, beef cows, goats, etc. , with hog productim dominating the scene. For instance, in the year 1973, the value product from E slaughter was 96.0 percent of the total value product from livestock subsector. Poultry production is not included here. 117 from crop subsector are corputed and presented in column 1 of Table 7.6. These values include the projected values products from minor crops. 6 Table 7.7 finally presents the projected per capita incote strears to farmers, including income from nonfarming activities, and that of no'xfanmers.7 Column 4 of Table 7. 7 clearly manifests an improved position for the farmers with respect to per capita farm incore. The improved per capita income position of farmers is not built upon the ruin of ronfarmers. An examination of the projected per capita incore stream in contrast to a nonfarmer in Table 7.7 shows that the projected increases in absolute NT$ for a nonfarmer is still more rapid than that for a farmer. Meanwhile, a more equitable distribution of income is being achieved. Column 4 of Table 7.7, when cotpared with tlat of Table 6.7 points to the possibility of gradually narrowing the per capita inoore gap between the farm and nonfarm populations in Taiwan. And this can be achieved during this coming decade if this policy altenative III be adopted and implemented.8 In the following chapter, we wish to examine the consequences to yet another policy altemative in order to corpare the relative merits and feasibility of alternatives III and IV. 6The calculating procedure for 'IVP, TC and TR in Table 7.6 is the same as for Table 6.6 of Chapter VI. 7The calculating procedure for Table 7.7 is the same as flat for Table 5.8. For the sake of simplicity, discussion of the procedure is not duplicated. 8lvbre detailed analysis of incore consequences etc. will be given in Clapter IX. 118 Table 7. 7. Projected Per Capita Incote to Farm and Nonfarm Persons in Taiwan Under Policy Alternative III, 1973-1984 Year Income Stream National Per Incore Stream Ratio of Farm to Farm Person Capita Income to Nonfarm Person to Nonfarm Incote NT $ Percent 1973 7,936 17,855* 24,173 32.8 1974 9,449 17,924 23,271 40.6 1975 10,748 19,839 25,521 42.1 1976 12,212 21,959 27,994 43.6 1977 13,712 24,305 30,805 44.5 1978 15,301 26,902 34,058 44.9 1979 18,340 29,777 36,677 50.0 1980 19,880 32,959 40,786 48.7 1981 22,496 36,480 44,784 50.2 1982 25,685 40,378 48,977 52.4 1983 29,251 44,693 53,627 54.5 1984 33,399 49,468 58,656 56.9 *1973's natioral per capita income is from historical data. CHAPTER VIII CONSEQUENCES TO POLICY ALTERNATIVE IV Under policy alterrative III in the previous chapter, the annual price support increases for rice, sugarcane and livestock slaughter were 9 percent, 11 percent and 6 percent, respectively. As a result, the per capita incore gap between the farm and nonfarm population in Taiwan was projected to narrow rapidly through time. A corparison among Tables 5.13, 6.7 and 7.7 shows that only policy alternative III arong the three shows a trend of per capita incore in favor of the fanm person. However, both the policy makers and the nonfarming populace might react to policy alternative III with apprehension. To the former, measures that result in the rapid rarrowing down of the said incote gap could cause noticeable dissatisfaction from the non- farming sector of the population. And to the latter, rapid and steady rises in the prices of agricultural comodities, especially rice, could cause fear of an Lmstable economy.l For the above reasons, this chapter investigates a fourth policy alternative in order to project and examine its consequences. In this chapter, while the prices of other agricultural comodities 1It was partly because of this fear that the price of rice in the past two decades had been deliberately kept low via the fertilizer-rice barter system. With that system, the price of rice was purposefully kept low while the cost of fertilizer was pegged high. The fertilizer- rice barter system has recently been abolished by the policy makers. And price support programs for selected agricultural comodities have been initiated. The qLestions facing the decision makers in the coming years is: what the support levels should be. 119 120 retain at the level as in policy alternative II where commodity prices are a function of population size, the annual price support levels for rice, sugarcane and livestock slaughter are set at 8 percent, 9 percent and 5 percent, respectively. (In contrast to 9 percent, 11 percent and 6 percent, respectively for policy alternative III.) The reasons are as follows. Despite a 40.5 percent increase in the price of rice from 1972 to 1973, the government's announced price support for rice from 1973 to 1974 was another 16.7 percent. As mentioned in Chapter VII, such dramatic price increases cannot be sustained. In the long run, the government canrot afford it, and the public will not tolerate it. Though a 9 percent annual increase as under alterrative III is not unreasonable , an 8 percent annual increase could be more attractive both to the decision makers and to the nmfanm population. Rice is an important price indicator in Taiwan's economy. A slower increase in the price of rice has a psychological edge over a more rapid one. Arother possible effect of larger increase in the price of rice is diversion of other fields into rice production causing a possible glut of rice supply and forcing down market prices . Though the absolute quantity of rice deman$d will increase through time because of popula- tion growth, the per capita consumption of rice will correspondingly slightly decline as a result of rapidly increasing per capita incore. A slower and surer support level for the price of rice might be an alternative candidate for consideration by the decision makers. As for the support price for sugarcane, an 11 percent annual increase was suggested in Chapter VII. But since the ccnsurption of 121 sugar in.Taiwan is less than 20 percent of its annual production, the government.mmst find ready international markets for the balance. And since the price of sugar fluctuates so widely on the international markets, the government cannot take sustained, sizeable losses should the world sugar price be low for a considerable period of time, especially since the embargo on Cuba could cease in the near future. Given the average price increases of sugarcane in Taiwan to be 8.27 percent for the past 12 years, a moderate 9 percent.guaranteed annual increase will: 1) give confidence to farmers in planning the cash.expenditures; and, 2) give the government greater assurance that Should."losses" occur on the international markets, they would not be so substantial as to jeopardize the support program. Besides, the nutber of cropped hectares of sugarcane in "t" varies and positively with the price of sugarcane in "t-l". An 11 percent support program could.divert.hectares planted for other crops into sugarcane production and cause more rapid.increases in the prices of other short-supplied agricultural comodities. In this chapter, the price support level set for livestock slaughter is 5 percent instead of the 6 percent in the previous chapter. During the past twelve years, the average annual price increase in livestock products was 2.51 percent. Since there will be increased demand for meat.products as a result of the rapid increases in national per capita income, an annual increase in the price of livestock.may be reasonably expected. But given the slow average:meat price increases in the past, a 5 percent guaranteed support increase seems more feasible and.acceptab1e than the 6 percent under policy alternative III. 122 With the above explarations to the levels of suggested price support for rice, sugarcane and livestock, Table 8.1 is constructed accordingly. Table 8.2, on the other hand, shows the crops' relative price changes through time. The projected per hectare cash expenditures under this alterative are corputed in the same manner as in Clapters v through VII, and are presented in Appendix E.1 The procedure of calcu- lation for these tables are identical with their corresponding ones in the previous chapters . The predicted per hectare cash expenditure (for i = l,. . .,9) under this policy alterrative is listed in column 8 of each of these tables. They are then transcribed onto Table 8.3 so that corparison through time may easily be made.2 The projected per capita income to the nonfarmer in "t" under alternative IV is corputed as in Clapters V through VII. Table 8.7 presents the projected per capita incores to the farmer and nonfarmer in Taiwan under policy alternative Iv. the projected ratios between the per capita farm and nonfarm incore under this policy alternative (Table 8. 7, colurm 4) reveal that, at the suggested levels of price support for rice, sugarcane and livestock slaughtered, the gap between the per capita farm and nmfanm incore in the future may be narrowed down at a more moderate speed than that of policy alternative III. 1Since 1973 the historical crop prices and their annual average price (bottom row of Table 7.1) are the sare under both policy alterra- tives, the "projected per hectare cash expenditure" for 1973 is omitted in this chapter. Given 1972's ratios of per hectare cash expenditures (Table 3.6) , and given the 1973's historical prices, their 1973's cash expenditures and per hectare yields would be identical under policy alterratives III and IV. 2Analytical presentation of projection results will be given in the following chapter. 123 emm.m mm~.m eom.m mmm.m mmm.m emm.q mmm.m mmm.m mme.m mmm.~ mve.~ mmmemac mme.m mae.m mmm.m omm.m mmm.m . Nee.m mmm.m mmm.m emm.m mm~.m mee.m nmenmpmmm> eem.m mec.m mee.m 1 mmm.m ee~.m mmm.e mee.m emm.m mem.m mme.m mmm.m unease omm.me emm.~e mmm.ee mom.ee mc~.ee cem.oe oem.me mem.ce mmm.me mme.m ~mm.m mscmmm mem mmm mmm mmm eem mmm mmm mmm mmm mem mem mammnmmsm mmm.mm mmm.mm mom.~m mem.em eme.em mm~.om ame.mm .mom.m~ mmm.em meo.e~ mem.mm ems mmm.m emm.m Nme.m mem.m mmm.m mmm.m mme.m ..mmm.m eee.m mmm.e eme.e ncmmm nmcmo mam cmmnmom mmm.m mem.m eoe.m 1 mem.m mmm.m mem.m mmo.m emm.m mee.e mmm.m mmm.m ceoo mee.e mmm.e mem.e mom.e eme.e mmm.e emm.e emm.e mmm.e mme.e eme.e cameos ummem mmo.em mem.me mmo.me emm.me .eme.me .mem.ee mm~.me mem.me mmm.ee mmm.ee mme.m moem .mom ooo .e\m.e.z mono emme mmme emme emme emme meme meme eeme meme meme meme emme mmmeumeme .ee meeumcumuea emeeoe amps: cmzame ce macho poem: mo nmoeec pmcesumumc eueeom .e.m means 124 u e.mox ooo.e\weze mooeo mo scene moon>o u _om enuo elue emme: . :memenmpcmm: . :e "enem. mm mem Q .m “me> coceounc mem oenou menu ce concomoeo sceuoe moat mmm. emm. omm. emm. emo.e mem. mmm. mmm. mem. emm. mem. moenouooo> mem. mem. emm. mem. mvo.e mom. mem. mem. mmm. mmm. mmo.e mueonm emm. omm. omm. emm. omo.e mmm. mmm. mmm. mmm. mmm.. eme. pounce emo.e veo.e eeo.e meo.e emo.e mmm. meo.e meo.e moo.e meo.e mmm. mcooeooom omm. omm. mmm. mmm. mmo.e mmm. emm. mmm. mmm. mmm. mem. mos mmm. mmm. mmm. mmm. mmo.e mmm. omm. mmm. mmm. mmm. mmm. mcoom Amoco cam :mmneom mmm. emm. emm. mmm. mmo.e omm. mmm. emm. eem. mmm. com. c.eoo eem. mem. mem. mmm. ovo.e mom. mmm. mmm. mmm. mem. eem. cpouom ummsm moo.e moo.e moo.e eoo.e. mmo.e mmm. moo.e moo.e mmm. eeo.e moo.e ooem emme mmme Name emme omme meme meme eeme meme meme eeme mono Immme Immme lemme lemme (meme (meme (eeme (meme (meme (meme (meme . emm» emmeumeme 5e 93.6532 emeeom emme: «museum :e moeem ooeu ommem>a.ooucmeozeou m>eumemm momcocu moeum mono mo moeumm .~.m menoa "memos 125 mom.vm mme.em meo.mm emm.vm moe.mm mom.me mmo.me mem.me mem.ve mmm.me mmm.m vmm.e omoemke mmm.ev emm.mv eme.mm mem.mm mmv.mm mom.m~ emm.em mee.mm mmm.mm oem.om mm~.me emm.ve moenmuomo> emm.mm mmm.mm vee.am mem.mv emm.vv emo.ov e~m4mm mam.mm vme.mm mmm.om mem.mm eoo.ee mueoem mme.oe emo.oe me¢.m eme.m mmo.m mme.e evm.m mmv.m mom.m mmm.m oov.v eeo.v assume mom.mm mem.ev mmv.~v eem.em mme.mm mmo.m~ mmm.mm eom.m~ mvm.o~ wee.me eme.me mmv.oe mcmouomsm ~mo.oe mmm.m mmm.e me¢.m omm.m vvm.v mem.v mem.m eme.m mveem evo.m Nmo.m woe omm.e mmm.m amm.m vme.v mmm.v emm.¢ meo.m vvm.v ome.w omv.v mem.m emm.m mcoom emcuo coo cmoneom mmm.ee eem.oe mmm.m vmo.m vem.m mmv.e mom.e evm.m emm.m mom.m mme.v mmm.v ceoo oem.me omo.ee eme.me mm¢.ve mmo.me mom.ee meq.ee mmm.oe mmm.m moe.m mm~.e eem.m cannon umosm mmm.mm mmm.m~ vem.mm vem.em emm.me mme.me omm.me mmm.me eee.me eme.oe mmm.m mom.m A ooem uwemuoom\mez mono emme mmme mmme emme omme meme meme eeme meme meme meme meme Home vmmelmeme .>H m>eumceoue¢_moeeom moons onsets ce mooeu Honoz_uow oecneocooxm choc output: mom oopoonoum .m.m menus 126 mmm.mm mmm.mm me~.mm emm.em moo.om mem.me eme.ee mmm.me emm.me mmm.me mmm.ee mmenmmmmm> mmc.mm mme.mm eem.mm mmm.~m emm.em mem.c~ mmo.om mmm.me omm.me mmm.ee mmo.me muesnm ome.e mee.e emm.e mmm.e ~mm.e emm.e cmm.e mmm.e mmm.e mmm.e eem.e mscmmm eee.mm mmm.mm mmm.mm mmm.mm mm~.~m mem.mm eme.mm emm.mm moe.em moe.mm mmm.~m mcmonmmsm mme.e mee.e eoe.e meo.e mmo.e eeo.e mmm mmm mmm mmm mmm mma mmm.m mem.~ mom.m mme.m moe.m emm.m mme.m mmo.m emc.m mmm.e emm.e ncmmm nmcmo tam cmmnecm mom.m eem.m mmo.m cme.m mom.m mme.m eme.m mmm.m eme.m mmm.m emo.m . choc mee.m~ mmm.mm mmm.em mmm.mm mmm.~m mom.e~ mem.cm emm.mm mem.me mme.me mee.me cameos mmmsm mmm.m mm~.m mmo.m mmm.m mme.m emm.m mmm.m oem.m mee.m mmo.m mee.m . moem magma . mom mono emme mmme mmme emme emme meme meme eeme meme meme meme emme mmmeumeme .>e m>eumsnmmec.moeeoe amps: cmsema ce macho poems mo_pemem mnmmomm eme.mmmomeoum .e.m meats 127 Table 8.5. Projected.Average Per Hectare and Total value Products of .Major Crops in Taiwan Under Policy.Alternative IV, 1973- 1984 Year Per Hectare VP Total VP NT $ NT$: Million 1973 26,873 39,620 1974 34,851 50,553 1975 39,159 60,836 1976 43,577 68,220 1977 48,444 76,482 1978 51,473 81,803 1979 59,119 95,124 1980 66,736 108,529 1981 74,830 123,091 1982 84,206 140,220 1983 94,030 158,642 1984 105,230 180,052 Table 8.6. Projected Total value Products, Total Cost and.Net Revenue fnom .All Crops in Taiwan Under Policy Alternative IV, 1973-1984 Year TVP TC NR ----—--—-NT$:.Million 1973 42,552 15,456 27,096 1974 54,294 21,443 32,850 1975 65,338 28,509 36,839 1976 73,268 32,802 40,467 1977 82,142 37,420 44,722 1978 87,856 42,591 45,265 1979 102,163 49,591 52,572 1980 116,560 55,127 61,433 1981 132,200 64,167 68,033 1982 150,596 74,268 76,328 1983 170,382 85,040 85,341 1984 193,376 98,309 95,067 128 Table 8.7. Projected Per Capita Incore Streams to Farm and N0nfarm.Persons in Taiwan Under Policy Alternative Iv, 1973-1984 Year Farml National Nonfarm. Ratio of Per Capita Farm.to Nonfanm Income NT $ Percent 1973 7,936 17,855* 24,173 32.8 1974 9,449 17,924 23,271 40.6 1975 10,769 19,839 25,507 42.2 1976 11,972 21,959 28,143 42.5. 1977 13,358 24,305 31,176 40.7 1978 14,102 26,902 34,689 40.7 1979 16,313 29,777 37,900 43.0 1980 18,862 32,959 41,395 45.6 1981 21,205 36,480 45,550 46.6 1982 24,076 40,378 49,919 48.2 1983 27,246 44,693 54,787 49.7 1984 30,856 49,468 60,110 51.3 In order that decision makers may weigh the merits and drawbacks of each of the four alternative policies, the following chapter analyzes in more detail the comparative consequences to these policy alternatives. CHAPTER IX ANALYSIS OF C(NSEQUENCES 'IO POLICY ALTERNATIVES, CONCIUSIONS AND RECQVMENDATIQQS The background of this study , the methodology, the derivation of data used, and the results of regression analysis were presented in Chapters I through IV. Four policy alternatives and their projected impacts have been presented in Chapter V through VIII. In this chapter, the following subjects will be presented: The feasibility of price support for these agricultural items. Changes in factor cost consequent upon the support program. The effects of the policy alterratives on resource use arong crOps. Effects of policy alternatives on variations in per hectare yields and profits . Per capita income stream possibilities to the farm and nonfarm person. Implications for land utilization and farm mechanization. Possible effects of off farm migration. Conclusions and recommendations . Feasibility_of Price Support Prpgram for Rice, Sugarcane and Livestock Production The Taiwan government that initiated the price support program in 1973 for these agricultural products. The main purpose was to stabilize 129 130 and increase the incoIe of Taiwan' 5 farmers , who engage in the production of at least one, or even three, of these crOps. Despite the unusual price increase in rice from 1972 to 1973 (40.5 percent), the government was prepared to guarantee a furtler price increase of 16.7 percent from 1973 to 1974. This contrasts with a 5.83 percent average annual increase in the price of rice for the past decade. As for sugarcane, the average annual price increase for the past decade was 8. 27 percent with a decrease of 3.2 percent from 1972 to 1973. The price support program for sugarcane called for a 12.5 percent price increase from 1973 to 1974. These support levels indicate that, administrative costs etc. aside, the government is financially capable of undertaking such a program. The reasons could be any of the following: 1) increased export possi- bilities, 2) the awareness that a more equitable distribution of the economic successes, as indicated by the rapid increases in national per capita income is in order, or 3) possible rice shortage in the future due to farmer's unwillingness to invest more heavily on the farm. Under policy alternatives III and IV of this study, the suggested srpport levels are much less dramatic tlan those announced in 1973. The intent of suggesting lower price support levels is that, at more gradual rates of price increases , the program may be sustained for a longer period of time wittout antagonizing the nonfarm sector of the population while at the same time insmring a stable per capita incore stream to farmers. Though dramatic increases in the support price of sugarcane will not greatly affect the real income of the nonfarm populatim, the government would suffer sizeable losses if sugar prices on the international market are depressed for an extended period fo time. Any drastic increases in 131 the support prices for rice could cause both panic in the minds of the public. With slower, but steady, price support levels, the government is capable of administering the program and maintaining steadier economic growth without undue inflation. With respect to price support for livestock products , since the average annual price increase for the past decade was 2.51 percent, a support level of annual increase in price by 5 percent (as in policy alternative IV) or 6 percent (policy alternative III) in the next decade is feasible, especially in view of the: 1) projected annual increase in national per capita income of 11 percent, and 2) the expanding food canning industry in Taiwan for export purposes. Briefly, the levels of price support program for rice, sugarcane and livestock production in Taiwan as suggested in this study can be sustained for a long period of time without undue burden on the govern- ment and without unreasonable price increases for consmers . Possible Changes in Factor Cost as 1 Result of Price Support Program It may be reasonable to suggest that, given the price support program and the consequent increment in the use of productive factors, the latter costs will increase proportimately or even outpace the product prices of suggested iters. From Reports from Farm Record Keeping Families in Taiwan, largest proportions of input costs for crop raising are fertilizer and hired labor, whereas for that of livestock production are feeds. There are several resons why tl'e increased factor costs coild not appreciably affect the incore streams of the farm person as projected. 132 1. The cost to hired labor in this study increases or decreases proportioately with the arount of cash expended for the productioi of a crop or livestock item. Thus, the increase in hired labor cost is already embodied in the computation. When the per hectare cash expen- diture increases as a result of the price support program, cost to hired labor increases proportionately. l 2. There has been contintous expansion and renewal of existing fertilizer plants in Taiwan. New equipment, economies of scale, and increased production have resulted in lower fertilizer prices, calcium 2 T'he superphosphate and nitrophosphate are abundant enough for export. government is continuing to expand the production of fertilizer and reduce costs. Consequently, proportional increases in per hectare cash expenditure for the production of crops permit increased use of fertilizer. 3. Labor costs will increase with economic growth in Taiwan. This includes hired farm labor costs. But, cultivable land is limited. Per hectare labor input has reached the point of negative marginal returns. In more recent years , agricultural economists in Taiwan have repeatedly stated the problem of overcrowding on farm lands. Therefore it is reasonable to empect that per hectare labor input cannot increase significantly in the future. Per unit costs of hired labor will indeed increase in the future. But the expected increases in hired labor costs lMien calculating and projecting the per hectare cash expenditure, cost to hired labor is not included at first. In a later stage of corputatioi, when calculating the total cost of crop production, the cost to hired labor is a trend percentage of total cash expenditure on all crops. See Chapter V for calculation procedure. 2The Sixth Taiwan Economic Development Plan, pp. 108-109. While the prices of fertilizers in Taiwan used to be much higher than in Japan, they are now either parallel to or are lower than in Japan. 133 lave already been included in the corputations.3 Besides, the government projection indicates slow off fanm migratim during the next decade. There will be an increase in the absolute nutter of fanm people. That means, in the next ten years there will be more farm people on the already overcrowded farm lands. More farm youth will be available for hire and thus increase the supply of farm labor. It does not mean that there will be significantly more labor irput per cropped hectare. It does mean that, due to projected oversupply of fanm labor in the next decade, the increases inper unithired fann laborwillbekept ataslowerpace. Given the above considerations , and given the already allocated increases in the costs of hired labor and other factors of production, the quantity of productive factors applied may be expected to increase for increased production. 4. As for livestock production, the principal feed is sweet potatoes. The major "coisumers" of sweet potatoes in Taiwan are livestock and humans. With the rapid growth in Taiwan, the demand of humans for sweet potato will decline, thus increasing the supply for feed purposes. And given the projected slight increase in the hectares of sweet potato to be planted for the next decade (Table 5.1) plus the projected rapid increases in per hectare yields due to increased per hectare cash to be expended (Tables 7.3 and 8.3) , the prices of sweet potatoes for livestock production are not likely to oltstrip the projected figures. Having given cmsideration to and having included the increases in cost in our calculation, hopefully the projected per capita farm incore will not deviate appreciably from future reality. 3See Chapter V, footnote 8. 134 Effects of Policy Alternatives 'on Resource Use Among Crcps4 Table 9.1 presents the projected per hectare cash expenditure on major crops under the four alternatives, for the years 1974, 1979 and 1984. Table 9.2 shows the projected percentage increases in per hectare cash expenditure under these policy alternatives. To trace the projected per hectare cash expenditure on rice and sugarcane production through time, Figures 1 and 2 are presented.5 a) Under policy alternative I, where the average per hectare cash expenditure is a function of time, cash expenditures per hectare increases only gradually through time for each crop. 6 From 1973 through 1984, the projected per hectare cash ependiture for rice and sugarcane will increase only by 27.7 and 37.3 percent, 4Here only per hectare cash expenditure is aralyzed. land area being static, the retaining factor or production is labor. But in the initial stages of this study, labor input was shown to have high corre- latim with cash expenditure, causing multicolinearity problem in the projective equations . Labor was subsequently dropped from the equations as an independent variable. Variations in the per hectare application of capital (cash expenditure), tierefore, might also be applicable to the amount of labor applied. 5For annual figures on the projected per hectare cahs expenditure for various crops, see Tables 5.4, 6.3, 7.3 and 8.3. 6Under policy alternative I, there is a drop in the per hectare cash expenditure for soybean production from 1974 to 1979. This is so because the total amount expended on soybean production is an insigni- ficant fraction of the total cash expended for the production of all crops, and in the process of rounding (see Tables in Appendix B, from 1974 through 1984) , an advance or a drop in the last decimal point in column 5 of these tables makes enough difference to make ti seem as if a sudden increase or decrease has been realized in the per hectare cash expdended for soybean production. This is a romding imperfection rather than reality. Isolated instances like these occur. Since these are isolated cases, and since the contribution of these crops to the total cash expended for the production of all crops is small, these imperfections are accepted and acknowledged. 135 mmm.ee ~om.m~ mmm.me emo.mm com.~m mm~.me mme.mm mmm.mm ee~.me meo.mm eme.m~ mmc.ee mmenmmmmm> emm.mm emo.om mem.mm mee.mm mm~.me mem.mm oem.me mmm.mm emm.m~ eem.~m mmm.mm mmm.e~ noeonm mme.oe mme.e oem.m mom.m moe.e oom.m mo~.m mmm.m Nme.e emm.m mmm.m mmo.m escmme mom.mm emm.mm eme.me cmm.mm mmm.mm eme.me eme.mm mmm.me mme.ee moe.me mmm.me mme.ee momonmmom mmo.oe mmm.e emo.m ee~.m mmm.m emo.~ eme.m mem.m emc.~ mom.e mmm.m mme.m mmm cmm.e emm.m mem.m eem.m mee.m mem.m mem.m om~.e emm.m eem.m mmm.m emo.m ncmmm nmcuo mom cmmomom mmm.ee mmm.e mme.m mmm.me eem.m mme.m mmm.m mmm.m mm~.m mee.m mmo.m ~me.m choc oe~.me mom.ee ~mm.e mem.me mmm.me -~.e mom.me mme.oe emm.e mme.ce mem.m mom.m common ummam mmm.mm mme.me mmm.m me~.mm eee.me mmm.m emm.ee mmm.m mmm.m mmc.m mco.e emm.m moem m an emme meme meme emme meme meme emme meme meme emme meme meme >H - eee ee e gflamflamfl8 emme pom meme .meme .mmaeumcnmmee speeom nsom m5 emote assets 5 mood poems so 833QO 88 memoomr emm 898.58 .e.m meoma 136 Table 9.2. Projected Percentage Increases in Per Hectare Cash Expenditure in Taiwan Under the Four Policy Alternatives, 1979 and 1984 as a Percent of 1974 Policy Alternative II III IV Year Crop 1979 1984 1979 1984 1979 1984 1979 1984 Percent Rice 120.1 138.6 128.6 164.9 234.9 414.0 195.9 361.0 Sweet Potato 128.5 156.3 135.0 173.6 186.8 261.9 163.5 253.0 Corn 112.8 129.7 107.1 132.2 188.6 263.4 158.6 240.3 Soybean and Other Beans 81.2 118.2 109.8 153.3 171.2 239.9 137.1 218.9 Tea 161.3 212.3 170.0 300.5 242.7 404.1 226.9 491.5 Sugarcane 115.3 128.1 128.5 170.4 260.7 499.5 203.9 392.0 Peanut 113.3 131.3 132.6 171.6 175.2 222.9 163.5 244.0 Fruits 125.1 151.3 136.0 187.2 194.4 280.1 168.4 267.2 vegetables 145.0 210.8 145.9 209.0 201.4 301.2 176.9 292.5 137 ce mgeuguem eoeeoo 50m mcu Home: ooee co consume—890 ammo oeouboc emm mouoohoeo Home emme emme emme He.u1s1\(11111(((((((((|1\\\1\. HHH .vmmelmeme .cozeoa meme meme eeme meme g .e.m meooem . ooo.m . ooo.oe ooo.me . ooo.om . ooo.m~ ooo.om . ooo.mm maz 138 .emma.mhma .mm>aumgumuam mugaom “com «5 H85 gems Ge coeuunfioum gnaw :0 $3»; ammo 9.30m: mmm 030$an .~.m 83mg Hum» vnme Nmbe emme -- mhmm . whme vhme mhme . o '1 .e 1‘ \lt . ooo.oe lllilllllllll H . ooo.o~ HH . ooo.om . ooo.ov B L ooo.om HHH waz 139 respectively. But the projected percentage increases in the per hectare cash expended for sweet potato, tea, fruits and vegetables are far more substantial: 56.3, 112.3, 51.3 and 110.8 percent, respectively. Figures 9.1 and 9.2 also clearly indicate the slow growth in the projected per hectare cash expenditure on rice and sugarcane production under alternative I. Under alternative I, the slow increases in the per hectare cash expenditure on rice and sugarcane production are due to: l) steady increases in the prices of tea, fruits and vegetables during the past, whereas the prices of rice and sugarcane increased more "eratically" for the sane tine period. Therefore, it pays more to invest heavier in these crops than in rice and sugarcane production; 2) the uncertain wide fluctuations of sugar prices on the international market which results in the unwillingness on the part of risk-averting Taiwanese sugarcane producers to invest heavily in sugarcane production; and, 3) the depressed price of rice in the past. Under the mandatory rice- fertilizer barter system, the price of rice has been deliberately kept low and the cost of fertilizer high. This caused the relatively slow increment in the per hectare cash expenditure on rice production during the past, and is now reflected in the future under this policy alterna- tive where the projected per hectare cash expenditure is a function of tine. If this trend is followed, price increases of rice and sugarcane products will lag behind these for fruits, vegetables and tea, result- ing in relatively slow increases in the amount of cash to be expended on rice and sugarcane production, and slow increases in the per hectare yields of these two important crops. The price structure of these major crops as a function of titre 140 as presented under policy alternative I (Table 5.1) would be undesirable in the sense that, the resulting deployment of resources among crops, cash expenditure and correspondingly labor input, would be such that the more rapid increases in production would 'not be for crops which would find ready markets and which would appreciably increase per capita farm income. 7 b) Under alternative II, the prices of crops are a function of population. This might appear to be a redundunt study of alternative I where prices are a function of time. In the Taiwanese economy, however, one unique factor prompts for such an effort. Because of this facotr, we must examine the projected consequences to this alternative to be certain they are either similar to or different from those of alternative I. And the unique factor is this. The rate of natural increase in Taiwan's population had always been high. From 1952 through 1962, the 7See and compare Tables 5.13, 6.7, 7.7 and 8.7. Admittedly, from the estimated coefficients presented in Chapter IV, fruits and vegetables production are more responsive to increments in per hectare cash expen- diture than rice and sugarcane. But the crops whose per hectare yields need to increase more rapidly than others are rice and sugarcane whose increased supply will not exceed demand, and whose domestic surplus can be more readily exported. The Taiwan government has not chosen to support the prices of fruits, vegetables and tea product, but has instead elicited to support the product prices of rice and sugarcane. Two of the possible reasons are: l) tre government is not administratively capable of controlling the prices of fruits and vegetables; and, 2) the product prices of rice sugarcane and even sorghum, whose value product in 19 73 accounted for only .2 percent of the total value product of all crops are supported, because increases in the producticn of these crops are more urgently needed to meet the prospective darestic or international demand. 141 annual rate of natural increase in population ranged between 3.67 per— cent and 3.10 percent. Despite an intensive campaign by the government to curb population growth, the rate of natural increase still remained high in the following decade. Birth rates in 1968 and 1969 remained at 2.93 and 2.80 percent, respectively. It is only in very recent years that a sizeable decline in birth rate and in the rate of natural increase is reported. In 1972, the birth rate fell to 2.41 percent whereas the rate of natural increase declined from 1962's 3.10 percent to 1972's 1.94 percent. According to the neot recent official population pro- jection, the birth rate will further decline. This will affect the prices of agricultural commodities. For, agricultural production will continue to increase at a more rapid rate than that of population. Excess of supply over demand will at least slow down increases in the price of agricultural commodities, which will be different from the trend prices as under alternative I. Therefore, there is the need for us to examine the possible consequence of family planning program to the per capita farm income. For this reason, this policy alternative II is introduced. The resulting distribution of resource use among crops under policy alternative II is presented in Table 6.3. Tables 9.1 and 9.2 compare relative increases in per hectare cash expenditure for the major crops under the four different policy alternatives. Figures 9.1 and 9.2 indicate that the increases in per hectare cash expenditure on rice and sugarcane will be very gradual during the period of projection. Again, the fastest increases in per hectare cash expenditure are for tea, fruits and vegetable production . Though sugarcane production 142 receives a significant "investment" boost over alternative I, the relative increase in per hectare cash expenditure for rice is still low. Given the high "elasticities" of production for fruits and vegetables, the market might be faced with their oversupply, leading to reduced prices for these crops and to unwillingness on the part of farmers to invest in farms and desire to invest farm savings in the industrial sector. The fact that, among the major crops, the government only supports the prices of rice and sugarcane is a signal that the distribution of resource use among crops should be such that rice and sugarcane pro- duction receive prior consideration. According to the projected amount of cash expenditure among crops under alternative II, however, the fastest increases are not on rice and sugarcane. This alone points to the inadequacy of policy alternative II. 0 Inadequate as policy alternative II is with respect to the dis- tribution of resource use, Table 9.2 shows that policy alternative II is an improvetent over that of I. By the year 1984, the increases in the projected cash expenditure for rice and sugarcane plantation are far more substantial than that under alternative I: 64.9 percent versus 38.6 percent for rice and 70.4 percent versus 28.1 perce1t for sugarcane. However, given the price structure under this policy alternative: 1) despite marked increase in rice production over that of policy alternative I , the per capita farm income does not increase appreciably dLe to the projected low unit price of rice; and, 2) the farm person will receive considerably lees under alternative II than under I for equal quantities of farm produce. This will discourage productive efforts ani investment incentives on the part of the farm producers. 143 If we were solely concerned with per hectare yield or total pro- duction of crops , the distribution of resource use resulting from policy alternative II is superior to that of 1.8 But if we are concerted with the size of per capita farm relative to nonfanm increases, policy alter- native II is not an improverent over that of 1.9 c) Under alternative III , where the prices of rice and sugarcane are supported at the annual increase rates of 9 percent and 11 percent, respectively, the per hectare cash expenditures for the major crops witness a more dramatic redistribution than either alternative I or II. In contrast to the two previous policy alternatives, alternative III projects drastic increase over time in the projected per hectare cash expenditures on rice and sugarcane production. Table 9. 1 in this chapter indicates that, with price support for rice and sugarcane, producers simultaneously invest heavily in rice and sugarcane production and _13 other crcps . Thus , due to the expected higher yields and higher revenues from price support, the perennial outflow of capital frcm the farm to the industrial and service sectors may be expected to decline. 8This result is in large measure attributable to the fact that, under policy alternative II tie average per hectare cash expenditure is a function of per hectare VP t-l, which is significantly higher than its counterpart under alternative I which is simply a function of time. (See last rows of Tables 5.9 and 6.3.) See also columns 9 of Tables in Appendices B and C where the ratios of per hectare cash expenditure for individual major crop to that of the province's average per hectare cash expenditure are presented. The changes in the said ratios for rice, sugarcane, fruits and vegetables frcm 1973 through 1984, for example, for the two policy alternatives, are as follows: Rice Sugarcane Fruits Vegetables Policy 1973 . 696 l . 743 2. 746 1. 923 Alternative I 1984 .508 .949 2.023 2.262 Policy 1973 .696 1.743 2.746 1.923 Alternative II 1984 .538 1.181 2.349 1.795 9See Tables 5.8 and 6.7. 144 Compared with 27.7 percent and 90.6 percent increases in per hectare cash expenditure on rice production for alternatives I and II , respec- tively, alternative III shows a 418.0 percent increase. Given the estimated coefficient for rice production, by the year 1984, the result- ing per hectare rice yield under alternative III will be 53.5 percent and 38. 4 percent higher than that of alternatives I and II respectively. This would not only alleviate a possible rice shortage problem in the future but would permit rice export.lo As for the per hectare cash expenditure on sugarcane production, its percentage increases are the greatest over the years among all crops . This, of course, is due to the suggested 11 percent price support level for sugarcane production. In a latter section, when the net profit from each of these price and cash expenditure alternatives are analyzed, it will beccne clear that large incentives are provided when the price supports at the highest level are considered. d) Under alternative IV, which assures eight and nine percent annual increases in the prices of rice and sugarcane, respectively, the per hectare cash expenditure increases for vairous crops are not as large as under alternative III but greater than for the first two alter- natives. The projected percentage increases from 1974 to 1979 and 1984 are presented in Table 9.2. Under this policy alternative , the resource distribution favors rice, tea, fruits, sugarcane, and vegetable production, but because of loSee long Term Projections of Supply, Demand and Trade for Selected Agricultural Products in Taiwan, where the projected surplus of rice for export by 1980 will fall to a very insignificant quantity, While the historical data on the hectares of rice planted from 1970-1973 have dropped much faster than the above study had projected. According to this projection, made in 1969, the hectares of rice cropped in the futrme will decline by 200 hectares annually. ' 145 the annual price support increase for sugarcane production is 9 percent, the resulting increases in cash expenditures per hectare for sugarcare production are not as drastic as under policy alternative III, where the average annual price increase is 11 percent. However, for the reasons given in Chapter VIII, the increases in per hectare yields of major crops, their resulting increases in revenues and profits to the producers are enough to narrow significantly the gap between the per capita farm and nonfarm income in Taiwan (see Table 8.12) . While the projected per hectare cash expenditure for the remaining crops--sweet potato, corn, soybean, and peanut--increase after the pattern as under policy alternative III, tea production increases faster than under policy alternative III perhaps due to the rounding in our mathematical computation. For instance, in Table B.10 of Appendix B, when the "unadjusted total cash expenditure for tea" is divided by the sum of column 5, the resulting percentage would have been .3671 if we had used four instead of three decimal points. when .4 percent in column 6 is reconverted into "adjusted total cash expenditure for tea" in column 7, the "projected expenditure for tea production" is magnifired to increase per hectare cash expenditure for tea in column 8. But since the total value product from tea production does not constitute a significatn portion of the total value product for all crops, such inaccuracy does not appreciably affect teh outcore of per capita inccne stream of tie farm person, and probably its effect on the per capita fanm incore could be cancelled out by the rounding down of investment figures for other crops . To conclude this subsection, then, with given levels of price 146 support for rice and.sugarcane production, the per hectare cash expenr diture on all major crops:may be expected to rise appreciably, thus solving the prdblemrof unwillingness of farmers to invest adequately in farms, and.reducing the flow'of farmlsavings to’the nonfarm sectors of the economy. Effects of Policy Alternatives on variations in Per Hectare Yields and on value Products The per hectare yield of an individual crop under alternative policy measures is listed in.Tables 5.5, 6.4, 7.4 and 8.4. Their marginal increments as a direct result.of price policies are difficult to measure, since yield, due to the nature of our computational process, is only indirectly a function of prices. But the rate of increase under each policy alternative may be made clear by the following table. Table 9.3. Projected Per Hectare Yield Increase Uhder.Alternative Policy Measures in Taiwan, 1984 as a percent of 1973 crop Policy Alternatives I I II | III I IV Percent Rice 118.7 131.6 182.1 174.9 Sweet Potato 127.3 143.1 166.3 163.9 Corn 126.8 144.3 216.9 203.4 Soybean and Other Beans 106.2 152.3 196.2 184.0 Tea 186.5 132.8 132.8 132.8 Sugarcane 110.0 117.2 132.7 128.8 Peanut 103.2 118.7 125.8 129.5 Fruits 119.5 145.8 166.3 162.7 vegetables 178.0 186.0 224.2 219.3 147 The greatest per hectare yield increases are under policy alternative III. The relatively smaller gains in the per hectare yields of rice and sugarcane can be attributed to the relatively low response to increased cash expenditure. But due to the levels of price support for them, the resulting increrental revenuee from these and other crops are sufficient to narrow the gap between the per capita farm and nonfarm incores in Taiwan. Under policy alternative I, with the exception of tea and vetables, there are hadly any increases in the per hectare yields of crops. The fact that the per hectare yields under alternative II are higher than that under alternative I also implies that the per hectare cash expenditures have been greatly increased. In so far as per hectare yields are con- cerned, alternative III and IV are close together. Figures 9.3 and 9.4 show the projected per hectare yields of rice and sugarcane under the four alternatives. Comparing alternatives I and II in theee figures, one may conclude that the increase in per hectare yield are very gradual for these two crops with alternative II showing improvetent over I. To the farm producers, it is the per hectare's alternative net profits under alternative III or IV that is of interest. Table 9.4 presents the alternative per hectare net profits to the major crops by the year 1984.11 As for rice the per hectare increrental profits under alter- native III and IV are very pronounced over that of I or II. With a 6.62 or 5. 62 percent annual increase over the past decade' 5 average increase 11‘E‘or costs to the consumers as a result of price support, see the follming Slbsection on "Inoore Consequences to the Farm and Nonfarm Person Under the Four Policy Alternatives." The cost to the government is rot knom, and ro information is available. 148 .vmmelmeme .mm>eumcumpem mueeoo Moon on» Amoco cmzeme ce oven mo eemee_oumuomc Hoo.oopomnonm .m.m mesmem Home vmme mmme . ommesr meme meme eeme meme 0 ooo.m .ooo.m l|\|.\\.\.‘ .\ up. ‘IlII\\ltllllltli1 HIIIIIIIIIIII1 HH nooo.v .ooo.m >H HHH room 149 .mgflofimuem eoeeoo “Sow on.» Moog Graeme ce moen mo Hoe» rumour: Hoe Econome— Home vmme Nm me A a . emme HH H- meme emme.. .vmmelmeme L l A .e.m 853m eeme meme 441.0 com .oe coo .om coo .om ooo.mm . mom 150 Table 9.4. Projected Per Hectare Profit Under Alternative Policies in Taiwan for the Year 1984* Crop Policy Alternatives I II III IV NT $ Rice 33,878 30,155 96,591 84,691 Sweet Potato 30,304 25,306 26.535 26,435 Corn 17,126 17,145 23,754 22,599 Soybean and ’ Other Beans 12,464 16,974 21,002 19,912 Tea 75,279 35,162 33,042 31,251 Sugarcane 23,441 15,307 29,795 26,058 Peanut 13,736 12,006 11,601 11,314 Fruits 85,210 91,622 94,731 94,379 vegetables 142,125 84,729 99,113 97,313 *The above figures are arrived at by: (Yield - Pi) - Costi, for i = 1,. . .,9. Here the cost refers to the per hectare cash expenditurei, with cost to hired labor not included. Since in our computation of cost of hired labor in the four previous chapters (see Chapter‘v, footnote 8), cost to hired labor is a percentage of cash expenditure for a given year, the proportion of profits under these various policy alternatives remains the same. in the price of rice,lzi.e.,suggested.price support.program 1evels--the per hectare profit could.nearly triple. While the increases in.per hectare profit from sugarcane plantation does not seem.as dramatic as for rice, the increases are significant nevertheless.13 12From 1962 to 1972, the average annual increase in the price of rice was 2.38 percent. Under alternatives III and IV, the suggested annual increases are 9 and 8 percent respectively. l3Under policy alternative I, the unit.prices for crops are a function of time, whereas their unit prices under the other three 151 Price supports for rice and sugarcane production do indeed contri- bute significantly to the per hectare profit of farmers. The effects of price support for livestock slaughtered are likewise significant. Under all four policy alternatives, total value products from the livestock subsector consistently account for approximatley one-third of the total value products from the crop subsector. Since the quantity of livestock slaughtered under a_l_l_ four policy alternatives is a function of national per capita incore t-l,l4 the only variations in revenue to livestock producers would be dLe to the 1eves of price support for livestock. Table 9.5 presents the _rg contributions of livestock production under the four policy alternatives. Though the net difference in incore among different alternatives during the early years is not large, the difference becores more pro- nounced throigh time. alternatives are, with the exception of rice and sugarcane under policy alternatives III and IV, al_l_ a function of population size. And since unit prices under policy alternative I are higher than that under II, the per hectare profits under policy alternative I are higher than if their respective unit prices had been a function of the projected popula- ticn size like under the other policy alternatives. This perhaps helps to explain the relatively high per hectare profit of sweet potato, tea, sugarcane and vegetables under column I of Table 9.2. Since the future prices of crops, in the absence of price support for any crops, are more likely to be a function of population sizes rather than of trend, a more meaningful catparison can be made among consequences of alternatives II, III, and IV only. The consequences from policy alternative I are therefore references rather than for reflecting a future possible reality. The increases in per hectare profit for sugarcane plantation are signi— ficant under policy alternatives III and 1V, not only because of sizeable increases in NT$, but also because of the fact that the levels of price support for sugarcane under these policy alternatives are a mere 2. 73 percent and 0. 73 percent annual increase over the past average increases (8.27 percent). 14See pages 84- 86 . 152 Table 9.5. Per Capita Farm Profit from the Livestock Subsector Under the Four Policy Alternatives, 1973-1984 Year Policy Alternative I and II III IV NT S 1973 1,512 1,512 1,512 1974 1,553 1,626 1,614 1975 1,702 1,846 1,819 1976 1,870 2,071 2,026 1977 2,048 2,317 2,249_ 1978 2,249 2,563 2,503 1979 2,465 2,910 2,781 1980 2,706 3,266 3,096 1981 2,967 3,660 3,442 1982 3,257 4,106 3,830 1983 3,562 4,599 4,255 1984 3,914 5,160 4,735 The price of livestock slaughtered under policy alternatives I and II are the same--both being a function of time. Under policy alternative II, the future prices of crops are a function of the officially projected population size in Taiwan. But when it comes to the livestock subsector, since there is no price support for livestock slaughter is suggested, and since the quantity of livestock slaughtert is a function of national per capita income t-l--which has a simple correlation of .995 with pgpula— tion sizes, then for the sake of convenience, the price of livestock items under policy alternative II assumes taht of policy alternative I. As for policy alternatives III and IV, the support prices are set at the annual increase rates of 6 percent and 5 percent respectively. The figures in Table 9.3 are arrived at via the following equation: 3 V _. [(Qt x Pi ) + _: TRj ] TCt _ t 3—1 t Yi ‘ FP t t for i = policy alternatives I, III, and IV t = 1973,. . .,1984, and j = l to 3 for milk, poultry and egg production where: Yi = the farmtperson's net income from the livestock subsector. Q: = quantity of livestock slaughter t Pi = Unit price of livestock itemi TRfi: = total revenue from j production T6. = total cost to the livestock subsector production, and PP: = farm population for the year t. N.B. The price support for the livestock subsector is only for livestock slaughter under policy alternatives III and IV. The prices of milk, poultry and egg productions are not covered by the support program. The 1973 price for livestock is historical, resulting in the identical net incore to the farm person from livestock production under all policy alternatives. 153 Income Consequences to the Farm and Nonfarm gyulation Under the Four Policy Alternatives The per capita farm incore has been increasing over the period 1959 through 1972. But while the national per capita incore has increased 327 percent during the same period, the per capita farm incore has increased only by 187 percent. Given the equation for a nonfarm person's income: (Yt-Y ) ° P ft f t Y = + Y for t = 1973,. . . ,1984 nf P t t nf t where: Ynf = the per capita incore to a nonfarm person t Yt = national per capita incore Yf = the per capita incore to a fanm person t P f = farm population, and, t P = nonfarm population nft It means that the smaller is "Yf " the greater is "Y nf " which t t results in a greater difference between the per capita incomes of a farm and nonfarm person. The ratio of per capita fanm to nonfarm incore was 42.1 percent in 1959 but declined to 28.2 percent in 1972. Considering that about 38 percent of Taiwan's population engage in farming, this inequitable distribution in the face of rapid increases in national per capita incore should not be permitted to continue for the reasons stated in the introductory chapter. If farmers had the proper training and institutional opportunity to move to the industrial or service sector for higher incore, they would. 154 This presupposes: 1) that t’re industrial sector or service sector had enough openings to absorb the farmers who would like to move; 2) that the government has widespread training program for the would-be off farm migrants; 3) that fanm labor is sufficiently adaptable to nonfarm produc- tion; and, 4) that t're farm labor is sufficiently mobile. Job training porgrams in Taiwan do exist, but not on a scale large enough to meet the demand. And conditions 1, 3 and 5 are not met. Therefore, a mass exodus from the farm due to low relative per capita incore on farm could cause urban congestion and massive urban unexployment. Nov we may proceed to examine more closely how the four different alternatives will eventually affect the possible incore streams of farmers. Figuree 9.5 and 9.6 present the projected per capita incore of farm and ronfanm persons under the alternative policy measures. Figure 9. 7 shows the ratios through time of per capita farm to nonfarm incore. Under policy alternative I, absolute per capita fanm incomes con- time to increase. From 1972 to 1984, they increase by 260.7 percent while the nonfarm per capita incomes increases by 218.4 percent. Per- centagewise, the per capita farm incore increases faster than that of a nonfarmer. Honever, by 1984, the farmer would still receive only 31.9 percent of a nonfarmer's per capita incore. The prices of farm products under policy alternative I are a function of time. The percentage gains in incore made by the farmer are from his income sources from nonfarming activities, which does not indicate any improverent on the fam scene. Clearly, if closing incore gap between the two sectors is an obejctive, alternative I has little to offer. In terms of improving the incore streams of farmers, policy 155 .wmmelmeme .mm>eu§em eueeom noon «5 Hang dozens 5 9605 Eur.“ mueomo mmm ©38an .m.m wusmem Home emme News ommH HH HHH meow 1 meme veme meme ea. 1ooo.e nL ooo.oe .ooo.me .ooo.om ooo.mm .ooo.om l ooo.vm .mnz 156 .emmelmeme .mgflmfimuem moeeom How on» H35 533 ce 9505 Eng madman Hoe @950an .e.m mnomflm Home em.me mmme omme meme meme veme meme . to, #‘ . ooo.o~ . ooo.om .. ooo.o¢ . ooo .om HHH .ooo.om mez HH 157 .wmmelmeme .mgflmcumuem eueeoc. “Bow on.» umoco 989: finance: 3 15mm mo mommpcmoumm oouooeoum .e.m mecca memef _% o + 1mm more . vm me mmme omme meme meme veme .mv HHH u V§H0ne 158 alternative II is not an improvement over that of I. The projected 1984 average per hectare cash expenditure under policy alternative II doubles that of I, and the resulting per hectare yields are substantially over those for policy alternative I, (see tables 5.5 and 6.4) however, the per capita farm incomes are approximately the same as under policy alternative I. This is partly due to the predicted lower per unit prices of crops under policy alternative II, and partly because of the lower per hectare total cost under policy alternative I. As a consequence, policy alterna- tive II has little contribution to make in closing the incore gap between the two sectors of Taiwan' 5 population. A very substantial increase in the per capita farm incore is pre- dicted under policy alternatives III and IV. Not only are the per hectare cash expenditures for the various crops much increased, the correspond- ing per hectare yields also increase. From Table 9.6 it is clear that alternatives III and IV will greatly enhance the income stream to the farm person. What is the corresponding "loss" to the nonfarm person if one of these two alternatives was adopted? Table 9.6 indicates that the nonfarm per capita money incore would increase by nearly 219 percent from 1972 to 1984 if either alternative I or II is adopted. If so, the farm person's income increase is nearly 260 percent. But, if the nonfarm person's income increases were 184.1 percent or 191. 1 percent as under alternative III or IV respectively, then the per capita farm income would increase by 473.8 percent and 430.1 percent. In other words, if policy alternative III or IV were adopted instead of II, then at the slight "sacrifice" to the nonfanm persons' 159 future money income, a very substantial gain to the farm persol's money incore could be realized. 15 Table 9.6. Projected Per Capita Farm and Nonfarm Incores in Taiwan Under the Four Policy Alternatives (1984 as a Percent of 1972) Policy Alternative I II III IV Percent Faun 360.7 356.8 573.8 530.1 Nonfarm 318.4 319.5 284.1 291.1 Ratio of Farm to Nonfarm 31.9 31.5 56.9 51.3 Person's Income The merits of policy alternatives III and IV may be summarized under the following categories: 1) the suggested levels of price support for rice, sugarcane and livestock production, as have already been initiated by the goverment, are within reasonable limits; 2) the suggested policies will result in increased "plow back" of on-farm-invest- ment to increase per hectare yields; 3) the increased production of 15The projected per capita farm and nonfarm incore streams are money incore. That means, in terms of real incore or disposable incore. the projected incotes would be smaller, and increases in the rates as discussed in the above paragraph would be slower. This study does not scrutinize the tax structure in Taiwan. Therefore, it is difficult to ascertain the projected per capita incore increases in terms of disposable incore. And because the future rates of inflation is not projected, it is not possible to convert those projected income increases from money income to real incore. What remains unaffected are probably the ratios of per capita farm to nonfarm incore through time. 160 crOps, especially sugarcane and rice, will make available greater quantity to be earmarked for export and for earning the much needed foreign currency; 4) much increased per capita incore to the farmer at low "expense" to the nonfarm person is thus made possible enabling a more equitable distribution of economic fruits among the two sectors of Taiwan's population; 5) the suggested policies will greatly enhance the purchasing power of the farm person, creating greater demand for industrial products and helping to speed up industrial expansion; 6) while narrowing the said income gap, the suggested policies will still allow absolute increases in the per capita incore of a nonfarm person to be faster than that of a farmer; and, 7) the policies will fl to solve the problems of land fragmentation and inability to mechanize farms in Taiwan as discussed below. Possible Effects of PolicLAlternatives III and IV on Farm Mechanization and land Consolidation Programs in Taiwan The farm mechanization program was initiated in 1956. Aside from a limited quantity of locally made power tillers, the mechanized tools inclue power and hand sprayers , pumps , dusters and rice threshers . To introduce less labor-intensive tractors , planters , harvesters , etc. to the farm lands is not feasible under the present conditions in Taiwan. The main obstacle is the overly fragmeited farm lands in Taiwan. The land consolidation program aimed at the more efficient usage of very limited cultivable land in Taiwan was initiated nearly two decades ago. Each Four Year Economic Developrent Plan stated the annual objectives of land area to be consolidated. But the program was halted completely a few years ago. Instead, regulations prohibiting further fragmentation of fanm lands were introduced. Small holdings lead to an unwillingness 161 and inability to purchase heavier mechanized tools. Thus, the land consolidation program was stopped and the farm mechanization program has had little success. Part of the problem originates from the high value placed on land ownership. Transition from tenant to ownership status as a result of land reform further reinforces the conclusion that land now gwn____e_d_ by the family must be kept within the family. Part of the problem also involves the value of security. Insecurity in the past has made farmers cautious about risking the only property! they can now call their own. Monetary incentives provided with price supports, as suggested under policy alternatives III and IV would reduce their fear and gradually change the values traditionally assigned to land ownership and the security of property ownership. Unless the farm producers thetselves see that under policy alternatives III and IV, their security w_i_1_l_ be safeguarded and that "prosperity" i_s_ in sight if they voluntarily consolidate adjacent lands and cooperatively invest in heavier mechanized farm tools for increased production and gains, the land consolidation and farm mechanization programs will continue to meet strong resistance. With the investment, production, and incore possibilities projected under policy alternatives III and IV in this study, farmers will, especially the younger ones, consolidate and perhaps cooperate. Institu- tional changes in the past have been influenced by incore motives. The Taiwarese farmers are not a likely exception provided productive incentives are present. It is believable that the incentives provided under policy alternatives III and IV in this study are a step in the right direction. The bottleleck in solving the land oonsolidation/ farm 162 mechanization problexs of Taiwan may , with the adoption or modification of the proposed policies, be effortlessly broken in time. Possible Effect of Policy Alternatives III and IV to Off Farm Migration in Taiwan It may be suspected that a more inequitable distribution of income favoring the nonfarm persol will induce a greater flow of surplus labor from the farm to other sectors of the economy. However, historical data indicate that the widening income gap between the farm and nonfarm population did not reeult in a consistent pattern of off-farm migration in Taiwan. Urban employment opportunity and rural needs for labor--in the absence of widespread mechanized farm equipment—seem to be the two crucial determinants of off farm or back to farm migration. Trough (this is not a study of off-farm migration in Taiwan, it may be postualted that, l) with higher ecoromic incentives to mechanize and consolidate farms, less labor will be needed on farm; 2) the projected rapid increases in the per capita farm income will increase demand for industrial products and thsu creating more nonfarm jobs for surplus farm labor; and 3) since moving to cities has a pronounced social value in Taiwan, implerentation of policy alternatives III and IV will hasten off farm migration in an orderly manner and will gradually relieve the population congestion problem in rural Taiwan. Whether policy alterna- tive III or IV is more desirable is the choice of decision makers, i.e., in view of 1) forestalling social problems, 2) equitableness between sectors of population; 3) cost of administration; 4) "costs" to the nonfarm population; and 5) speedier economic development in Taiwan. 163 Conclusrmmsarrilmxxmmendatrmms To briefly summarize: 1) this study outlined the problems on farm in Chapter I; 2) stated methodology in Chapter II; 3) explained the method.of constructing certain nonavailable but required data in Chapter III; 4) presented results of regression analysis and using identities and of accounting components in.Chapter IV; 5) projected the alternative per hectare cash expenditures, yields, value products and incore streams to the farmland.nonfarm.person in Taiwan, 1973 through 1984, alternative, in Chapters V through VIII, respectively; and 6) discussed the potential merits of policy alternatives III and IV over that of I and II in this present chapter. In consulting study results in this research effort, the reader needs to bear the following points in mind: 1) Sore of the data used in making projections in this study are derived. In other words, desired historical data specifically suited for projective pruposes of this nature are lacking; 2) the projective equations are of questionable structural value as the many variables and relationships among them needed to write structural equations are not well known. The projective equations in this study are probably only partially reduced form of unspecified structural equations. The strength of the‘wholermodel resides primarily on having the estimated results fed into structural identities in a latter stagelofo ereocgu. o 05 en @2058 m EBeou .. m 5530 .35 £8880» assessofimo c0339 Sum me p0aoou0 0.0303 wo .0852 095: 08 en 8633 e 5530 I m 5.300 m 5.300 .e.m gone .wu .mnouu Hones 0:... mo soeuosoopo 0rd he 0H3eoc0oun0 rmmo e33 mmme x m 5530 I e 5.300 a .mmme £00858» eagerness 5309 Sun we Bongo 005300: mo ~09; .mmme 5. 6080.5 8500: m0 .895: x v 9530 I m 9:300 .ee Sieoo .e.m Enos .oo 0.438598 ammo 0.30.02 u0o 008.020 13055.5 mmmme x m 9530 I e 5530 , mm...em. Efleoo .e.m 0.309 .w0 I m 9:100 “530.585 o0 00.50m oooé mme.m memo". emm.~m~ em moo. mm meeemm mmmov mmm. mmm.: egg: mmm.e eem.: ~mm.e eme. Sn; 2%.: mmmé omm. meme 00ermu0o0> emm .N mem .me mmm . e mme . emm . e Nee .ve omm .m emm . emm .N no? mmm. mmo.m mmm mmo. emm vmm.~ oem. mem. eem. uncm0o ovm .e mom.m eem eoe . mmm ovm .m mmm. .e eeo .e mmv .e gonogm moo . mmm .m em moo. em emm to. New. . mmm .e emm . 00o. oov. omm.~ Noe meo. mme mem.m mmm. emm. emu. no90m H050 oco 533m oem. Moore. mm eoo. mm mvm.~ mom. emm. mmm. F80 mmm. vmmfi 3m; mve. eom.e minim mmm. emoA mem. cannon ”.0016 mme. mm~.v mmm.m mem. emme vmeé eee. mem. mme. 002 Am .9: 3033: me»: 303:: who G .9: mo 3: Aeo Go Go 3; AC Ame a mwlemme mmme How 003m 0.339098. QOHU ammo 8300: 0m0u0>< u0o 0mmu0>< 05.53 2000 a a m 85500 a 9 0.8055 0.8900: H0o 0cmH0>< .0ucuecc0oxm @0th pop mo Eon .oeu ecu 05ueoc0oxm 0>er0z Home 05 8 90935.5 0:» cu rmmu 0§ueoc0dkm 05 en 0.3uepc0oxm :mcu ”$00590 .muoueocfiofl gouge 0500: §8m u0c more e309 @0325 £000 e309 0300: u0d m x e 00in 0.3900: u0o see so .0391 982 snowshoe smegma m 538 c8962: “.8888: 338 8.0 to cause 8.0 mmme .0ucuecc0dxm :3 0.4300: 3a 8.0 u0o c3934. mo €039,300 .e.< 0enme 170 0030005020 :000 000000: 000 no 0000020 000050600 05 >0 00003.0 0 55000 I m 55000 .m0m0 0.000.000» 000503000910 00300:. .500 00 000300 300000: 00 00052 .Sma 5 0000000 800000: 00 0095: 05 E 000030 5 55000 I a 95000 .m 9508 .06 032. .0080 3.02. 05 0o 8000.58.00 05 08 3ng :08 038 SE x o 5508 I 0. 5508 .mmma £80000» 0003080004 003000. .500 00 0000000 0000000: 00 00052 .Sma 5 00000000 0000000: 00 0095: x v 55000 I m 55000 .3 55000 .06 00000. .0050030900 :000 000000: 000 000090 03000800 $3 x m 85000 I v 55000 $700. 55000 .e.m 00:00. I N 55000 m 5508 4.4 0300. I 0 E5000 :3 EH8 .H.m 0Hnfi9 "80.00.5005 00 $00590 mmm. man 30.: vmm.mo~ 0N moo. em omega mmo.mv mvoé mamov 080:9: men .N moméa Sm; 3.0 . Km; 53.: omm .N X: .0 mmmé 0000000000, m2. .m omoéa 3N . H mma . mvm .0 m3 .3 50 .N So .0 mmm .N 00.300 mmm. «.Nn.~ new «no. ohm fiesta mvm. mmoé mmm 020000 03.0 mnmi m: mmo. m: hmmd ~34 mmm. ovoé 0:0000msm m3 . :N.~ mm o8. mm mmm .N o2... m: .H mov . 00? mov. $o.m m3 ms. 03 moiw 30. mmoé oov. 0:00: 00:00 a 5.3.60 mam. 50...... mo moo. m0 mixm emm. Soé o3. F08 mam. ommé mmoJ o3. «3.0 mmm.». Sm. mmoé 00m. 000000 00030 .85. mmm.m vom.~ mmm . :m.~ mmm .m «on . mwoé m2. . 002 a 0.20 0.000: 0.020 0.30: 2.5 a .020 Am: 80 A: 30 Amy 3; :2 A3 A: moma 000 00000000009 hmn mama :000 000.00 000.000: 000 0000 000 00000>< 0000090098 :000 0 0 m 95000 0 0 I003. 00 m.005> 000000: 000 0m000>< 00:03 .0000 000 no Ezm .0000 000 000000000006 03.00000 0000 0:0 00 0.0093000 020 00 :00 0050000005 0:0 0: 0050.00; :000 000205 0050000005: 0030000000 000000: 000000: 000 500 038. 000030 0000 038. 000000: 000 N x 0 8000 000000: 000 000 0o oflmm 95$ 088.004 089.000 m. 9508 089.0005 038.0005 0:508 0000 0o oflmm 080 $2 00500050006 :000 000000: 000 0000 0.00 0000530: 00 0000050000 .~.< 00:00. 171 2: 56:00 .H.m 0.309 .guaaa £000 00.300: 00m 00 0000020 HMUEBHQ 0.3 an 000.3% m 5530 I m 05:00 a .Sma 3.00880» 3538qu 532. .8808 8038: no 3852 .82 5 8806 858: 0o 695: 00 E 83>? h 538 I m 538 .m 538 4a «Ema .maouo no.3: 90 no 83880 05 .80 wfiuficfixm 5.8 H38 83 . 0 538 I h 9.38 .moma .300» Haggis c0309 609600 000300: mo 000.52 .moma 5 000080 @500: no 0095: x v 5.300 I m 5530 .3 £5.30 .H.m 303. 0.30% 2000 0300: 000 000.00%. HMS—320.5 coma x m EBHOU I v EH8 .373. 05:00 .e.m 0309 I N 93:00 .m 8530 .~.< 2nt I H EH00 "Congas wo 000.38 oooA v.36 mmH.mv mmTNHN mm moo. ma mmmé: omvém mmm. mmaév .5823: mmm .m m3 .3 com .H 03 . mmoé 30 .m mmm .H _ 0mm . mmm .N 00350o0> mvm.m H213 «em 52... mmm mafia ~34” mmm. mmm.~ mug mom. mafim mmm one. mmm mmm.~ mmv. Nom. 0mm. 03800 $04 amim wwm «3. v: momQ. mmvé .23. Re; 05.9390 m3 . oo~.~ on So. 8 3m; mmm . mmm . m3. 00a. 3v. mmo.~ v3 m8. 03 mt; Sm. mmm. mow. 0:000 050 a cwmnmom mmm. mmoxn mm moo. mm mmm.m mmm.. 0.84 mam. Eco mmm. mom; an; m3. mm 026 ovm. mm. mm. 00300 00020 mam. mmm.m mafim Sm. vmm.~ 08$ m3. mmm. Sm. 09E 8 by: A43”: 22V 13?. w Hz. Aw E6 5 a: E g 3V 3; A2 5 A3 mama nom— 0558:0006 wMImmma ammo 8C0 00500: u0m 3.5 000 0300.2 00:03 a a m 5.300 a 0 I092 Qu 0.0093 5000 0.5300: 000 .0033; .0000 00w wo 5m .0000 000 003060096 03.038 HIDE 0.3 0» 0mmu0>¢ 0.005800 0.? £000 00:00ng 05 >0 0038:09fl 5000 3090030 0.3qu 00 0.30336 0585 00300: H00 £000 H38. 00033 ammo 1.509 05300: 000 m x H 00.05 09500: 000 Lam 0o ofimm 983 @395“ @3984 m 5.38 Eugflumca 80933: 9:38 80 0o Sana g 83 6036590 :08 3300: .80 080 .80 03mg“? 00 5390.8 .mé 038. 172 AH EH00 .H.m manna. 1.55.3033 £0338 dwanwuuo 000300: «0 H0952 a 5:38 J. m 033. .33 x8930»: #3330000: 5.33:. $000.00 80300: 00 H0952 1: 5:38 1m 033. 00.33593 £000 0500: 30 mo 005—03 13:90.3 05 an Egg m €530 I a £530 6me 0.00950» .33 5. 00:00.8 80.300: 00 H095: 05 an @0336 N. 5:500 I m ESHOU .0080 uohmE 05 00 5305qu 05 New 003% ammo H33 mama x w 5:300 I N. £530 .33 5 #000000 80.300: mo 0035: x v EH00 I m EH8 .0uduac0nwx0 :08 003.00: 000 mmmu0>m $405500 moma xm EH00 I v :Edoo mwlvw 55.30 .e.m 02am? I N EH00 m 55:00 .m.< 0.308 I H 5.3.60 "EOUEOMCH we a; mmm. mmeé Hmmdm www.ms «A moo. 3 :meH wmadv mmm. mmafiv E09303: mvmd 3Q: Sm; N3. oomJ 25.: omwd whoé mn~.~ £05095 mvm .N mmm.3 mmo ooa . cow $0.3 mv~.N «mm. mvm.~ flan Noe. aim Nmm .28. :N ovo.~ mmm 084 mam. 05500 mmmé BNK was 0:. men mvmfi mmmé Gm. 504 magmasw mmv . 0miw on :o. 3. 03 .N o: . 364 m3 . mg. mum . ME; «NH m8. NNH wmoi mmm . won. «.3. 0:00: H050 can 58:8 mmm. omm.~ mv So. 3. aom.~ mmm. emm. mg. 58 mmm. wow; moo; Nma. wood 03.... Nmm. mm. Em. 330: 00030 amp. mmm.m mvm.~ own. ”.e.m 31m Non. Em. 02.. 00E G .5: 734.: mm»: 73?: we»: 8 .sz 3: a: :3 A3 A3 :3 S. AN: AS 89. Ha molvmma gag—09¢”: 00.30 ammo 2300: no.0 000 M00 vamp—IE2 8330:0109 £0.00 a A m E530 a a L0>< 3 m.00:..n> 0.3000: ~00 0:803: 0556:0an 19.5 now we Em .005 new .0hsuagnm 933.0: ALOHA 0t... 3 0.009.300: 05 o... :08 050005098 05 3 0.503 zmmu 3.09.3.5 0.43% musufivcmaxm 0.8000: 00.300: 00: :m5 .238. 0033...: £000 H38. 05000: “.00 N x a 09.25 0500: H00 8.: 0o 03mm 9.03 089.5: 089.5: m £38 BuBGnca 089395 2:58 8.6 we ovum no.0 mwma .333 ammo 00500: H00 00.6 H00 03mg?! 00 5303.30 .vé 0308 .d 538 £5 032. .mfiufimea 580 mg an we Swag QUEER m5 3 3.9% o 538 u a 5.38 . a .32 .fiofiuou $5530qu 5339 guaaouo mug no .8952 .33 5. .6383 8300: me .895: «5.3 335.3 N. 93400 n m EH8 .m 538 {m flame 686 6.95 m5 mo Sflusooa «5 How mfiuéfiea ammo H53 933 x u 538 u n 538 .32 £0850.» Hougflsoflmflasfia .8966 85.32 «o 89.52 .53 S. .8986 figpuo 893 x v 538 u m 538 .2 £38 .3” «38. .mufiaaea :98 8583 3m 0833 33558.“ 33 x m 838 u c 838 .318. 838 .3” «Ba. n ~ 838 .a 538 .3. 03mm. u a 538 "SEE no «858 173 coo; SQF 2.9mm m2.mv~ 2 «8. NH www.mQN Nonév n34 Amwdn .593”! onv.m v3.3 8m; mmm. map; «8.5 «.85 mmmé nvmfi gnflfioo> Smé H493 mmm m8. a: 20.3” 936 mad mend mug Gm. cmm.~ mmm 28. gm . $m.~ vow. v84 Now. “5:me ems. . mwm .m can 25. com mafia 03 . Rm . mmm .,n 509m mov . wmo. ~ 2. do . S v: . N mom . end 4 n3 . u 3:. >3. mmm; vma owo. m3 QTN m3. mmm.." mun. 950m U50 . F! 33%“ «mm. SQN vm moo. mm. mama man. ovNJ firm. 500 mmm. ~36 v.84 m3. mmm; 31m H34 234 gm. 830m #520. m2. . mmm .m Sm. N mmm . amm. N mow. m nmm . 2A A E. A 82 Am a»: 132 3.5 7.3.2 was 8 .9: A8 8V at 3V :3 A3 :3 AN. as mean Bu Janna 5389a «OE :8 flag g g Na 0? 333 5.8 a a m 5530 a .996 B )2 9% 8303 Hum $3.ch .39qu .980 yaw mo Sm .mouo H8 350% Eda-Mama album Buy 8 9% 05 B ammo 333 m5 3 mudfidg nun-o u.§ .53 fig «“503 mg yum cmwo H509 @0323 £98 .3909 5 Hon N x H 83 9508 ME Hum mo 0.3.3 ”593 @3384 8332 m 538 Bananas 39838: 9.530 and no anon BU £5 ‘figggagigffififlgg .mdflna. 174 .5. 55:8 44.. manna. dunner—098 ammo 8.50m: Md «0 mmcugm 3353.3 05 an cad/Hm m 5.300 I m 55.30 . A .33 .38» HEBHBflE :3?a 6385 8.438: uo 352 .SS 5 .8880 £38: mo 395: Bu 3 33>? N. 538 I a 538 .a 55.30 .H.m wanna. 69090 Momma an» no 833nm $5 new gay? ammo H33 mkwma x o 5530 I h 95:00 .82 5 .8880 858: mo 3&5: x v 838 I m 538 633% ammo goon man 93ng Hagan mm.” x m 5.300 I v EH8 .373. EBHOO Jim manna I N EH8 .m 8530 .m.< Mafia I H 9530 .33. .38» augudfiwumi 533. £60098 goo: mo .8852 .3 5530 .H.m 039a "Eggnoflfi mo g oooé mead momdm vomGMN ma moo. ma . HNoécN 03.9 :m. :m.mm g2 HNNA 28.2 onJ oNN. Sm; mmmNa mmaé «Na. omvfi @3333. m2. .N «3.3 emm Hmo . th Rm .3 Sb .N moo .,n 3m .N mug Nam . mmm.N MNN mmo . 3N Nam.N gm . mHoA 3m . uaflom mNm .H mom .m mom omo . Mom vafi mam .H SN. .H ems . gunman—m mmm . emm .H mm o3 . mm 26; wow . mom . mow. mg. va. mmné m2 mNo. a2 emm; mac. NNoA how. 9.80m H050 n5 583m mmm . com .N C moo . mu Nov. N mow. MNoA «mm . ECU mmm. $2.8 5mm 3%. 3m 35;” mg. mmm. mmm. 930m #005 was. 0mm.N m3 .N mmm . m3.N mom.N son. 23. mg. 8.2 8 Bzv 7:? my: A43: 99: a .sz 2: 2: AS A8 A9 :1 A2 ANV AC 32” H8 £I§n 83389»... 83m 530 330m: 88 mmm Hum mmmuuxé 9:53 :8 a a m EBHOU a « LEE 3 9g minnow: Hum magmas .mudug douu MOM mo Sm .mouo 3m .wuduflfimmunm gflflmm album mnu on 9858.5 m5 on ammo 0.336% ms» 3 mgugcgvfl ammo fig 655% ousuagfl mug mg: umm cmmu #38. 832.5 swam 308 838: umm N x H Baum museum hum awn mo ovum 98$ “Ema? 83%? m 838 @3938: Bumsflumc: 9:38 mod no 039. 980 $2 658% ammo 838: 8a 85 8a Having no 8.3.928 .3... «BE. 175 lei-.58 .m :BHIB H. m manna 6&8 no.3: 05 mo Saoéoa 9: now 83% ammo H38. SS x m EcoI s 538 H No. LS. 3.9.00 .33 50830» Magda—63$ 53.89 0096.5 $38... no 3852 .32 S .vmnwfiuo @838: no .895: x v gooI m 500 Jan—EH00 H5038. .gugflsggimwmugafigmmNomaxmgl v58 «.lmflnnflu N58 app—5.30 .wésgldgaoo ”Swag—Hung mom. mmm.m III II III III III III III III I lanai! Rad NR 3 vmo H m3. m3 omm.3 GEN Hmc. ANNA mg mom .m Hmm.NH mmm o3 . Sm mmm 73. on...” .n wma .,n «2. .N madam mmm. OMN.N EN 28. NON v8.N mmm. emm. N3. ”.3le Se .H oomfi «am So . owe SN 6 mum A mace" a In ”In!“ mnm . a: J an moo. me Nmm J Sm . Na. 23 . HF Noe. ~34 mi HNo. N3 mg; 3n . Sm. «N... “In: .550 all g Sm . mmH . N ow 3o . mm m3. N mem . Nvm . nan . g mNoA mmm.m 8a SH. mmm 2b..” H8. :64 Ra. 32 an!“ oNn . mNh .N «BIN mmm . Neo.N Hum .N 2b . ova. 9:. . 8w— a be A .22 was 13:. .0..sz 3 .sz 5 a: E A8 E E E a... a 33 you Naomwfl 83.3596 .MMM is g .39 330.2 mung 5.8 a m 538 a a L943... 8 985.. 838m Hum $394 05»; .mouu Maw wo Sm .Qouu yam .333 madam—dd «bum H3 9 90933.5 «5 0... £8 83% 93 an «Huang ammo Mfg fig 333 330$ mango: Hmm ammo H32. v3.33 ammo H38. 8300: an N x a «GE gnu: um! an no ovum 9&5 gush? Hangman m 538 835395 E882: @538 and no Qua 95 $3 .0553 sumo 8309. you mono HE 899.9! no 393 4.4 3.3. 176 JJ 55.30 J.m 382. .85qu nmmo gum: uma mo $3.35 33528:“ 93 an «503% m 5530 I m £530 .33 $302.80» 352.....ng amide 63.68 8332 Re “.352 .32 5 {munch 8% mo 35: m5 3 Haydn h 538 I m 538 .m 5.300 .1.” «38. 68.8 8.9: 93 No 83088.“ «5 How wunfioea ammo H58 82 x o 838 I h 838 .33 .38» 3332.5... 538. .8898 8.3% no 8952 .82 5 6.586 8.502 «0 H35: x c 538 I m 9.38 .3 838 .3” «32. .3533... sumo £303 a «mag aflofig 32 x m 838 I q 538 $18. 838 {m «32. I m 538 m EH8 .bé 0.33. I H 35.30 "SUD—Down: uo gun-om oooJ 3N...“ III III III III III III III III III gid- naofi 08.3 mmoJ SJ. go «3.3 m2..N mmm. no» N 8.333 mmm .m $0. 3 Nmm m3 . mmm mmm .NJ wMN .m mum . mom .m a»? mum . mmN . N NNN one . m3 NNo . N mam . owm . mam . “550m ems J a: . m 2.9 3.... . woo So 6 vmm J one J va J g oov . NomJ on N8 . Nm mum J mmm . 3m . mum . was :3. Be; m2 «8. m: mmm..“ mem. mmm. N3. 9.8m .550 . 65w g 8m. Sm.~ mm ooo. Hm mmo.~ Nam. 2a. mom. 6.8 $64 «3... m; 8H. «5 Sfim 3m. «mm. chA 358 ummlm So . 3m . m omo . m mem . mom J in . a «an . NNm . oNn . now. 3 .3: :3: was :3: 2.5 a be 5 8. E a: 5 3 E E 3 Nome you $.83 «H53 ”.8qu 53 8300: @090 mmm. hum mmm OHS.» «magnum Smflnv d m EBHOU .n H Jugfi B IE4 m.§fl> 8300: mmm mmmuw>< .§u§ demo HOW mo Sm .005 mg 6.558:me 93g abut m5 3 928$ m5 8 5.8 gag m5 3 wéufimea :98 fig 953096 333 838: 838: 3m ammo H38. 8698 ammo 38. 838: 3m N x H mafia 9.380: #5 mom «0 ovum $3 @388... 038.92 m 838 80.9895 Eugflofls 3.38 8.6 no ovum g $2 .833 fimo 338: ha mono 8m 38:! no 53.355 .aé mafia 177 .HH EBHoo .H.m $.33. 6.3.qu Swan 0%: uwm uo mama?“ HmHucH>ouQ 05 an 832,6 m SSHOU I m SSHOU H .83 3.0093wa 3.32823 533... .3580 8538.. no 8952 .82 5 8.398 8.38.. mo .35.. m5 3 83>? h 9528 I m 538 .a EH00 .H.m mHnNH. .308 .33: 05 we gflguoua m5 new 34238598 ammo H33 983 x o SEHOU I h EH00 .HomH .xoonudw» 3.5qu0.“qu 5328. 6230.8 8.3500: no .5952 .83 5. 6950.8 8.3000: no .895... x v EBHOU I m EBHOU .HH SSHOU .H.m 3an .mfiflflucumxw :23 mg uma momugm HmflQCHSuQ ome x m SSHQU I v SEHOU .ow.Imm. g5anu .e.m mHnt I N EBHOO .m CEDHOO 5.4 wHQmF I H EH8 ”839535 We «8.50m Hoo.H omofi III III III III III III III III III .5925 ~38 $0.: 39H 93. mmm omndH vmo.m mmm. nmod 833mm; H2. .m www.mH mom moo. mmv mem.: mmm .m mvm. mama 33.»... gm. 504.. mom mmo. mmH ova; Hmm. 3m. arm. #55 mmmH v.36 m3 mHH. mmm 5.0.6 monH mHo.H BRA 5mg va. Ham; 2. 30. mo OHm.H mmv. NEH oov. mm? mem . 2m .H 2: one . SH 034 mmm . Sm . Hmm . 28mm .350 can. 535m mmm. om~.~ Hm ooo. mm 39m omm. mmm. «mm. F30 vmoH 3min hmm moH. vmm mum.m 80H «mm. 304 330m ”.856 wow. mom.m 52.4 03.. . m3; Hmm .N 2.9. emm. How. 83 8 .9: 2H3: 3.2V THHHZ 3.2V 3 .sz 8. 8. AC 3. 3v 3; .2 Am. AH. 33 yew 8I22 83% among :8 0.2300: 8.5 mmm mmm ommuflé 83.3 find a a m 5530 a 2 I32... 0» 98.5.3 £300: mmm moouglw flying .005 we mo Sm .820 28 .ouzufimmva 933mm HIPS ms.» 3 98.2% 05 3 2mg mudufimnxm 05 3 «336.896 ammo ”~ng .35qu 3323.23. 838: 838: 3.. ammo 288. Bugs 68 2309 mg: 8m m x H 82.8 .338: you 8.. mo 039. PS2 2.38.2.4 @3823 m. 5.528 @8938: 83:32: 9.38 ago we 033. no.0 82 .mhfigmaxm :96 338: Hum mob 3m @3922. no :oflmfihx. .md «Baa 178 .3 5:58 .n.m canon. .83: inc $300: “on no wmmumsm 335g 05 3 @0336 m 8530 I m 9530 .omma .38» “3.231% 5:3. .3580 3:303 no #582 .32 5 flRingo 8:82 mo “BEE Bu 3 BE>€ h 538 - m 538 .a 5E8 .1.” gamer 6988 .33: «5 mo Sign m5 uom mfiuaamxw 5.8 H33 9%.: x m 538 u N. 538 .Sfl .5830» 35.53%? 533”. .uoEoU 83 mo “Biz .mmS 56386 8.502 mo 385: x v 538 u m 838 .2 838 .e.m «Ema .§§8 398 8803 Had omega 26583 $3 x m 838 . _V £38 @3me 538 .e.m «38. . ~ 838 .m 5&8 .mé «Ema .. H 838 "Sfigg mo gm coo a «3:». II II. III II III ..iI III II II 895ml: o2. .N Hmm . 3 fig 53 «.3 m2. . a mem . N mam . N: .m an; Rafi. N334 2% So. mow . $13 mmm.N HR. H36 33 man . mm." . N NAN omc . mad com. H mam . mom . mnm . vacuum H34 ovmfi emm mac. omv mmmJ momé 3K. MNmé 0:00.396 Rum . mmm .H S .30 . mm «on .H vvm . Sn . wmv . can. 3m. and; ooa m8. .8 H34 mmm. mmm.. 3m. madam H050 can 53%“ fine. Sim mm moo. vw Soto. mum. vmw. mmm. 880 934 meJ mvm 0:. ohm mom.m ~84 mmm. vmoé 330m .596 02. . emm.~ own . m 3v . A: .N amp . N an . v8 .H mom . 83 A» .9: A432 8.5 A432 85 a as a. :3 AS 3V Amy 2: RV A3 Ad 83 3:33 haw my»? 83m L896 sumo 3.5 mg mg mmwugé among/4 $3 a .n m 8530 a a 0.» Pg :90 850m: Hum .guagnw .86 How mo 56 .mouo MOM .8536; m>33mm Album 2» 0» flag 923.3 cmao 9503 $5 an 336% ammo H0365 .93»? fl...» 3 gag vacuum: mam sumo H30? @333 ammo H309 0300: umm m x H 83m mgr Hum 958: Ham on 0.39. “99.84 Emanna m 5530 moaning“: @8882: EH8 mono we 033. and mmm." .guahmmxm nmdo mg umm flmenu “8Q “Manama mo 20393.30 .oaé 0.369 APPENDIXB PROJECI'EDPERHEUHXRECASHEHENDI'IURESINTAIWAN UNEER POLICY AIE'ERNATIVE I, 1973-1984 179 Table B.l. Projected Per Crop Per Hectare Cash Expenditure Under Policy Alternative I , 1973 Crop Ratio of Per Crop Price Columns Estimated Per Hectare Cash Changei 1 x 2 Hectare Cash Expenditurei to Relative to Expenditure. the Province ' 5 Average ' 1 Average Per Crop Price. Hectare Cash 1972-1973 Expenditure for 1972 (l) (2) (3) (4) NT '5 Rice .696 1.152 .802 6,331 Sweet Potato .851 1.024 .871 6,876 Corn .510 1.113 .568 4,484 Soybean and . Other Beans .383 1.352 .518 4,089 Tea .224 1.245 .279 2,202 Sugarcane l. 743 . 800 1. 394 11,004 Peanut .535 .997 .533 4,208 Fruits 2.746 .828 2.274 17,951 Vegetables 1. 923 1. 016 1. 954 1 15, 425 Sources of Information: Column 1 - Table 3.6, column 9. Column 2 - Table 3.4, oolum 1972-73 Column 4 - Colunn 3 x average of hectare crcpped. 1973's estimated provincial cash expenditure for per See Table 5.4. 180 .v.m 0.3mm. .mo .83; ammo £09.. umm mo 86.3%.. 335205 .05 8033 m 5530 I m 85.30 4:3 5 .8688 838: mo 895: mfi 5 888.8 N. 5.38 - a 538 .880 3?: «5 no 839688 «5 uou «£86898 5.8 H38 RES x m 538 .. N. 538 4an 5 688.5 @838: «0 35c x e 5530 .. m 5530 .838:wa 2mg 0.4502 Hon wwmugm ~39:qu 93.3 x m EBHOO I e 500 .~.m 032. u0 312.3 85.30 g I N 9530 .m 95:8 rad 3an I A 53:00 .m.m manna. .uo .v.m 39MB .wo .m.m 0.33. .w0 "SUEOEH uo Boudom 304 9.6.2 mmod $0.5 «onto. 3N. mom.~ SQZ vma.~ «mo; emmé 338g Hnmd Nmméw aim «ma. «mo.~ Hoimm moo.~ H34 3&4. 32 Nov. m3; emm mmo. mvm ENS. mom. emm. mmm. as Nové «2...: coo; vmo. 3.1a «2.3 H34 mmoé v9.4 g mmm. m3.~ mo moo. mo main emm. mmm. 2N. Me. com. 2.6.... m: we. mma om~.m van. «on. can. «.88 M98 6.! fig emm. vaé oma So. v2 mmm.". mem. mmm. mom. 58 emm. mead mmm; m3. who; HmNK New. ooo. db. 3.39— g mmm. v.8...“ mmmé mmm . vmoJ ~36 awn. mom. mom. 8%— .» .9: A43: maze 73a: maze a .9: 8V 2: AC Ge Ame :1 AC Amy 3. 2.3 uoH 0933 v 12.3 nus «um 8500: mg 00.5 0mm omaugd 333898 a a m SSHQU a a .922 0» FREE ammo 3.300: Hum dung; .Qouu qu mo Sm .nUuU HOu .mnsufiunmxwxm 9,339“ a g B 09.35 9858.3 sumo who»? 05 E mudugcmaxm . ammo women—.0 .53 on... on my»: 8.4300: awn find 306 000.33 sumo H309 goo: hum N x a 8.3m 858: “On 338: ha 80 oflmm cough? 639.9% m 838 63992: 3333:: 8:38 mono mo 9.9». 90 3.3 .H 938.8»? 630m nuts: 83% sumo @500: Hum 80 nun. guano?“ .Nd «in. 181 65,032. .m0 00:320qu :08 0.430.}. 000 mo 00396 3005500 05 .5 @0093 w EBHOU I m 9530 .m.m 03.8. .w0 .53 5 0000000 0000000: w0 .695: 05 3 000.3% N. 5530 I m 9:400 .0080 00.3.: 05 mo ~538qu 05 08 £03..ng £000 H300 0.33. x o 5530 I n 9530 m.m 0309 .mo .33 5 009890 00.3000: mo 0095: x v EBHOU I m 8530 .e.m 023v d0 .musugcquhxm £000 0.8000: H00 0000020 Hmflucgofim 0.3.3 x m EBHOU I v 9:400 N.m 302,. we mnIvan 5530 I ~ £5.30 a 55060 .~.m game I H 9530 "coflmfiowcH wo 000.50m 0004 $0.: So.~ 2%;: omim emm. Sim 30.3 mno.~ mmoé mmwd 00HQS000> munim $13 emm.“... com. mam.m emvém Hom.m mmm. Hmm.~ 32 m3. who; own mmo. omm mom€ mow. mmm. N3. .3500 Hmmé Naima "0:4 omo. H24 mmm.? :m4 m3. mové ggm mmm . mmm . m on moo . no RN . m «mm . omm . mmm . 00? mvm . mnoa m2 oao . a: ~38 ovm . oom. owm . 05.00 00:00 0:0 c00n>om mom. mmm.v $3 08. A: 50$ mam. gm. mmm. F50 NS. mmmK mmoé ANA. 304 vme. 3m. ooo. Hmm. 000000 0005 who. $0.0 mmmé mmm . mmm .v 03 .o awe. 0mm. mmm. 00am 3 .9: 7qu $.20 73.2 2.7: Am .9: 2.: A8 E § 5 a; a 5 A: 3.3 MOM m IKE 8:08:30 03.8 5000 00300: QOHU 0mm 00m 0omu0>< 0033:0me a a m 9:300 a .0054 00 0.00:? 5000 8300: 000 .guagm .0000 00w mo Ezm .0000 00m 0§u§0axm 0>HO0H0m noun 0.? o» 0mmu0>< 0.0052000 2000 0.30% 9.3 3 0§0§0axm £000 300.0020 030% 05 00 0.504.038 000000... H00 2000 H0009 @0330 £000 H0009 000000: 00m m x ._.. 000.5 0500: 00m 0.3000: 000 no 030m 00005.84 030de m 9:300 00005395 000932: mac—:00 mono «0 0.30m 090 mp2 .H 902.482 6:8 “was: .8365va ammo 838: 80 mod .80 088.85 .90 03.0. 182 .v.m manna. .w0 .m .m gag. .uo .maouu MOE: 9.3 we :oflosooua wfi new 836% ammo ~30... Pong .m.m wanna. .u0 .052 ca 69508 mmuduoo: no .595: .guflgw :mnd 8.302 Mg mo owmuo>m Hawucazoum wt.» 3 @0336 o 5530 .23 E .8966 3:82 Mo 895: m5 3 8628 h 538 onBHQU XvSEBO HNVmFmO‘ E 8 .e.m 03.2. do .33”??wa ammo 8500: um; waning.» 335292“ mbhfl x m 5:300 I 5530 whim»? 5:300 .N.m 035. u 5:300 a 55:8 .md 035. I E533 "839685 uo moguzom mmm. 20.2 woo.~ m~o~o~ Hmmfi omm. mmm‘m moodm o:.m v~oA Sod mBQBOZS mwv.~ ZNAN R1,” mom. ~33. gnaw witw mom. m5..~ madam wmv. moo; :m go. o: o2; mmv. m3. m3. uzcnoo mow .H @212 E34 who. 21.4 omm.- o? .H onm. Sn 4 guummsw :N. oww.~ mo moo. .2. 3min mom. pom. com. com. mmm . nod a m3 moo. n: «ma .m omm . 3m. mem . mg .350 U5 Egg owe. mooé oma oao. mma :54 m3. «3. won E8 Eh. 39h mow; oz. 354 85:. woo. woo. Nam. 330; 9426 mmm. vomd 25;. SM. mmm..» ommi now. So. one. 00E .w .9: A432 2.2V 7:? 8.2V 8 E6 8. 8o 2; So 3‘ A3 So So A: mhma New wudugcwaxm onumnma :mmu umofium 8.50m: mmm no.6 mom 039521 wudugcwaxm a 4 m 5.300 a £82”. 8 whoa; :mmo 830w: awn .oudufivcomxu .QOHU new mo 5m 10.5 we wuduflvcomxu 9330a «:95 05 Cu mamuo>< m.m0:«>o.~m :mdo unsung—$91.“ 93 ‘5 andugcmncfl cmmo 30mg .wudugcdaxu as.» ou $38536 moumduo: .8; :90 ~38. 8330 meu H38. 850mm uwm m x a woCn 05300: no; 2.30m: Mom we 035* "859.93 @3922 m SSHOU Bumsflcmcz gum—snug: 9.5300 3.5 we 033 £95 22 .H 939:82 5:8 “one: 05553.4 :20 838: no; mob no; 830.8: 4.: 032. 183 .e.m «38. do 833% ammo 888: an no mango 3855a «5 E “.838 m 838 u m 538 .23 5 63.86 $58: no 395: at B 835. N. 538 u m 558 68.6 8.95 mfi mo 83968.” «5 “on 83389.... ammo HEB PES x m 538 - m 938 .33 5 .nmmmouo 838: mo 35c x v 938 n m EH8 6.433598 5mg 8500: Han 00396 aflofiém Puma x m 5530 I v 5.300 .~.m «38. u m 538 a EH8 in flag. I H 538 .m.m manna. .wo .v.m 93.3. .u0 .m.m 3.nt .wU " :3 #1585 no 80% ooo H 513 RAJ” NSJN mom.m mvw 98;. 393 Nqad mmoé emotm 835095 Sm .m mm~.v~ wonm mam. Emma 9.va oov .N mom . mmv.~ 32 mg . SN; Hmm omo . 3m saw .v v.2. . mmm . omv . vacuum eomé www.ma «.34 mo. mSJ $6.3 momé Rm. mmmé 2% mom. moo.m om moo. 2. oms.~ ohm. mmm. gm. me. new. mafim m: noo . a3 mao.~ mom . mmm. mmm . madam .350 v5 3.5m mow. mung. SH 08. m3 mmm; wow. «so. mow. F50 mmm. omoé com; o: . :mJ mmoé Han. mmm. 52.. 330m uwwim mmm. Swim mmm; mom . mom; ommfi v3. mmm. $0. 82 8 E6 732 was 732 my»: A» .sz So so At 3V Amy 3; A2 AS A: whoa you 83.3 KISS L898 ammo umofium 8300: Had 08 wow @833. a a m 5530 a a 1.854 0... 9009.3 333% ammo 838: .musuagm .mouu Hem uo 5m .85 HOu 633% 933mm HIPS m5 8 yum monum>< m.m0c..n>oum smmo m§u§ and an wgugg ammo uammfimfi gag 9: B 83% 8.438: mmm 58 :82. 8330 ammo H38. 338: an m x H 83m mgom: mom 858: Had mo 0.35. @3934 8333 m 538 @3932: “39395 "“838 86 mo 033 no.6 2.3 .H m>UmEB2 «UHHOQ Hana: .musuflucwg ammo «gov: uwm REG mmm Omuowflem .m.m game 184 .v.m wanna. do 6553:0940 ammo 050ml .50 no 0980:. HMHUEBHQ 05 an §H>HU m 5:300 I a 5.300 .EE 5 6950.8 838: 00 “85: m5 3 833g 5 538 I a £38 .wnUuu momma. 05 m0 conuswonm 0:... new mywflvcwmxo nmmo H30... Pong x w 55.30 I p 5.400 .32 5 .vwnEOuo 8.3000: 00 0095c x v 5:100 I m 95.30 .m .m wanna. .wu .m.m manna. .wo Jim. 3an .00 050630 560 0.1300: 000 mvmud>m 38:30.40 93.3 x m 5530 I v 5530 ~.m mance I N 5530 m 9:300 .md 033. I A 5530 "Swag—Honda 00 $0.33 oooA NVNKH mad 313 com... SN. mom."~ www.mm $1~ 3o; hma.~ aanmummw> mem.~ vowfim mama MNN. 3min 31mm va.~ now. and 9:45.“. wow. 31v own So. mmm "Km; now. So. 5v. 03:08 mmm; 03.: mom; oho. wow; ommaa «NNA mom. vow; 839m mmm. $1M om moo. Nm mooa Em. ooo. now. 02. SN. 3o.~ voH ooo. o3 Sim mmm. emm. 5N. 9.00m H050 05.. g omv. mmm; m5 So. HS omm.v vmv. Sm. mow. F50 at. 031m So; «.3. mmoJ omvi oi. emm. mmm 830m 000.6 mmm. $50 mmo.m Nam. mmofi «who mmm. who. m3. 00%— .» .50 A43: 93: A43: mo»: 8 $20 80 80 AC 30 3o 3; A3 ANV A: Pm... .30 0558 mTRfl L690 fiao 08TH 00500: Mom 005 000 ommugd a a m 9.300 a 0 L92 3 m.m05> wuzufivrgnm 2mg 00.300: .mnduag .095 new mo .QOHU you .5653 9339* «Iowa 05 Q» uwm ammum>< m.8§>0um :mm0 wuduflUCQQKw Esm 05 050.32% ammo 0589.0 055% 05 3 wyuigfi 8.8000: uwm :mmo .2509 E 00330 nmmu 308. 0500: Hon N x A 00in 8300: you 8300: Hum wo 030m 03922 039.9% m 5530 03330:: 03930:: map—300 mono wo 9.0mm g 32 .H 909502 0:8 .62: .3365?“ 5.8 338: 3m no.0 you “088.805 .3. 38a. 185 .v.m mance .uo 6532098 ammo 838mm Hum mo wvmumsm Hmflufisum $5 3 835% o 8530 I m 5530 :93». 202. 55 S. .8986 $538: No ~85: m5 3 833mg 5 528 I m 8.38 .mmouo momma 05 mo cofigvoum 05 new gag ammo H30... momma x o 8530 I h 9530 H .m.m 3nt .93 :fl .Eamouo 8.4300: mo umgc x v 95500 I m EBHOU .v.m 3nt 658: uwm gag; ammo wmmugm Hmaocfiéua Pong x m 95.3w I v EBHOU .mhIman SSHOO .~.m 3an I N 5.300 .m 5530 .e.m magma. I a 9:38 "coflmqumcH uo 888m oooA 2.de mid v2.3 ~33. mom. mood www.mm modm 3o; mmad £2309; Hom.~ 893 «no; mmm. mHmé 315m mvmd mmm. mva mug ham. ~mm.v mmm m8. 5mm 36;. mmm. mmm. wow. .5ng ms; omm.ma mmm; ooo. mmmJ v3.2 vomé mom. mNNA ammonia mom. mmvfi mm moo. om mom.m How. 5mm. mmm. m8. mam. 9.3;” mm moo. moH mon.m vmm. ooo. Hem. madam umfio Em 536m vmv. mmo.m 2: So. o3 8.1m mvv. vom. omv. :uou won. 055 noo.~ H3. moim mmo.m Hon. NooA 3.5. 330m .505 moo. ooosh Emfi omm. mom.m Rip 3o. omm. mmm. 8E 3 .3: A432 99: TEE who a ,9: So So at So “my 2: RV Amv A: mood new 2.32 mfiuamea uwoflum Snow 8300: 00.6 000 3A 0mmuw>< gag a H m 8:300 a a Jug/d Q» 9855 ammo 338m umm .wuduflucmaua .mouu new we Sm .QBU new .838; 9,338 AIDS 93 B mmmugc m.0u:..n>oum :mmo 93¢?me m5 3 wudufiwcmaxm ammo uflwmcfllU .25... .6596 93 Cu 853.9696 mumuomm Hum ammo H309 god/HQ ammo H309 Wampum: Hum m x H 8.3m 8.30mi Ham 8300a .89 Mo 03mm vmumzflnc Ramona m 5530 Bumsnvmco 833395 mEBHOU Q80 mo 03mm no.0 .32 .H m>Umeu2 328 ~85 .mufiécmaé ammo 8300: and mod 3a “988E 5m «32. 186 .mnsudxhxwxw ammo muscul— Hom no mmmgm HMUEBHQ 05 an 833v m 5.300 s m 5530 .82 5 3&80 838: mo ~35: wfi E @838 s 5.38 - m £38 688 3.8: «5 mo 8388a 93 you gain. fine :38 982 x @538 u n 538 .m.m 398. .w0 .83 ca .vwmaouo «6302 NO .885: x v 9530 .. m 53:00 .m.m 353. .u0 .v.m wanna. do 6qu ammo macar— umm mmmugm 1305.qu Pomma x M 9:48 .. v 53:00 8:32 9:300 .~.m 3an I N 5.300 .m 5530 {Hm manna. I H 5.300 "coflmfiuoflfi mo 80% mmm. 08.3 hma.~ mmm§m mmnfi mmm. mood «3.6.0. mmad 804 «Ed mmanflmmmy» ovmd omm§~ mg; ovm. mmm.". NVNKN Hafim mmm. Hom.~ mug emm. was; 3m So. an mmoé mum. Rm. mmm. usfimfim 124 02.3 3N4 So. am; $5.2 2:4 :5. mZA magma emm. Sin 3 «co. mm mmm .m mum. mom. mom . mmm. oma. mmm.~ S voo. mm Rim 03. «mm. Nam. 980m .350 15 Gownhum m3. mowim Now go. 3H So‘m now. mmm. «3. F30 22.. m>~.m ETN >3. mats. 2:6 mm. «mm. nos. 330m .3016 mmm. mvNK ommd mmm. Shim 81h Hum. mem. moo. 00E 3 .sz .43: 25 A43: 9:6 3 ,9: .8 a: E 3V 5 a; a g 3v 2.3 now 8.33 838% umoflum smmu wufluomm ago wow Ham mmmugd gag—899 a a a a 183‘ 3 98:? 5.5 330mm yam .m§u§ .aouo yew m 55.30 .990 Haw 6536.396 933mm 4.9.5 9.3 3 69934 90935.8 ammo was»? no 25m $5 ouduflocwnvnm ammo uwmmcmfiu .8592qu 93 ca «55358 $538: Hum ammo H38. .5 Bod/Ho ammo 309 338: yum N x a 83m 3300: “mm 0538: 3a Mo 03mm v89?“ 85%? m 538 Eugflnfls E932: EH8 mod we 035. no.8 82 .H 935932 3:8 Hung: .3385?” ammo 388: Had mob 6a @883». .md manna 187 .e.m ~33 do .8333“. 5.8 $38: 3958 mo 339m 365.83 «5 E 83%” m 538 .. m 538 . .m.m 38a. do .32 5 609980 838: we ~35: m5 5 833v s 5.38 u a £38 .mmouo .83.. 2... we guanoum 93 ac“ 833% 2.0.8 H38 E 356 o 5.38 u N. 538 .m.m wanna do .83 5 .Bamouu mflflofl «0 .485: x q 538 u m 538 6:“. wanna do .§u€§ 5.8 8302 uwm 833m 385.62” 82 x m 5530 .. v 538 .2782 538 .~.m flag. - N 538 .m 538 dd Same . H 538 "coflumEHOMCH no muonsom Hooé mmm.~m mamé unfimm H36 mmm. mmmd onm.m~ vmmd :04 Sad 8.35509, ama.~ mom.m~ mmm‘m mmm. Swfi 99mm vo~.~ «mm. oww.~ 33 :m. owofi mmm 3o. mmm 39m gm . mom. 8m . 035mg 304 HmNJH emm; wmo. mmm; mem.: So; «om. H34 383% mmm. Skim mm woo. mm 2&8 mvm. Sm. 0mm. 3:. 03. mmm.~ mm voo. om mom.~ NS. mmm. 8H. mcmom .550 can :wmnxbm mow. weed mm 08. HNN vmvfi mov. mom. 3v. F80 mmm. 93$ mmm.m v3. vom.~ ~85 mmm. mmm. mg. 330m umfld Sm. mow; mmwfi mmm. ~56 395 :m. owm. mmm. 03.x a ,9: .432 mm»: A432 99: 3 .9: A3 a: At 3v 3v 3: A3 A3 3. cam.” now gag Enema :3 mafia 58: non mono wow monumgc was»: a a m G530 a a LEE B 98:? ammo 0.438: umm .85qu .85 new we saw .mouo uOu .333 933mm Anon." m5 9 33.22 m.85>oum ammo was? «5 3 my»? ammo flag—3.0 .93»; m5 0» gugg 330w: mmm ammo 138. 333.0 ammo 3909 8500a mmm N x H 03.8 3300: ME mg an no 0.3mm Bums“? “99.9% m £38 8:532: @9389 EH8 gob mo 03mm and .83 J 939.532 3.30m H85 .musufiwnvfl £80 0500: Hon 3H0 Hum Snowmen .md wanna. 188 .e.m mance do 65»? ammo mg Hum Mo $89”. fificgm 93 3 835 m 538 u m 538 .m.m 038. do .33 5 .8966 «988: no g: 9b B @836 5 £38 - m 538 688 6?: 2... no Sfiuaoum m5 you 8.36598 :98 1.58 982 x w 538 u N. 9.38 .33 5 6% 8538: no ~35: x v 9.38 u m 538 6.3”“?wa ammo .8303 Hum gag Hafiucgoum Pmmma x m 9530 I e 9530 $-82 €38 .~.m manna . N 838 .a .238 .3. 298. u H 638 .e.m wanna. .w0 .m .m mafia. .mo "congowcH mo 8058 ~84 mmm.m~ mm~.~ mmm.: main Sm. 93.“ $me nmm.~ mooé mam.~ flafimwwxw mma.~ SQmN Sim emm. omim mom.m~ qma.m mmm. mmHN Eda Nwm . $o.m 3m .30. gm H36 mmm . mmm. gm. uzcmom nmoé emm.: «mmJ mmo. mmm; mnmJH wmoé mom. mooé 2839"” mmm. 353 mm ooo. mm ~mm.m mmm. mmm. mmm. m3. Sm. -m.~ ma <8. mm mmm.~ 8H. Sm. oma. manom— .850 new Gang mmm . Swim mmm So. mmm emm .m mmm . 3m . mow . 58 mg. 5.0.3 SQN HS. mem.m $6.3 was. m3. Nmn. 330m ummzm ovm. mvwg. mg...“ New. mmofi mmmK mvm. Sm. 5m. 00E a 95 73...": 3»: A43: 9:3 8 ,sz A3 a: At g R: A3 A3 A8 A: Ema new 833.83 mmnamma ammo magnum 8300: Hum mono mmm. $392 mafiagnw a m 55.30 a a 3.324 on 9% ammo 3300: Mon .85»? .090 ME uo saw .080 new .83; m>flmag abum 93 on 000.3% m.w05>oum :93 gufiéé ms» 3 gang ammo fig .whfiagfl m5 cu undue; 8300: H3 ammo H309 novfifio nmmo H309 8.38: hi N x H 8Cm gum: gum gown mmm mo 03mm 639.91 vsmsnnc m 5530 639.395 @938: mac-.500 g0 uo 03mm 3.0 $3 .H 932.8»? Eden his déuamea 5.8 380% 3a no.6 3m @38an .S.m 038. 189 Jim 0309 do 005035098 5000 0.0500:— u0a uo 0003020 3305053 0:» an @0336 m S5300 ... a 553.00 .m.m 032. .00 .33 5 600080 0003002 no 0005: 05 3 00036 n 538 u m 538 .0080 .892. 05 no 830880 05 08 003%:0Q0 :08 08.8 0.33 x 0 538 u N. 9538 m.m 0309 .u0 6me 5 0000000 0000000: Mo 0095: x v 55500 I m 55.30 .e.m 03009 20.0 .9503? 2000 8300: not 000.0050 Hmfiocgm 0.33 x m 55300 n v 5530 .3133 55.30 .~.m 0309 I ~ 55.30 .m 55.30 .35 03009 n A 5:300 "GOSSEOMCH no 00038 H84 mmmfim 3mm .N «3.? 39m gm . So. m 021mm «8 .~ do A mmm .N 003000000> omo .m $5.3m mmm. 0 NR . mmm . a mom 0am 30. N Rm . m2 .N 33.5 men. 086 mmm main mvm . mmm . mmm . 03:00m mmm. $5.: in; «mo. 3m; mmm.: mmm. Sm. p.84 gnaw mnm. 03; SH woo. mm 988 Sm. who. mmm. 009~ mam. $3.». 83 woo. om mmm.~ 3H. mvm. Sm. 33m .0050 0:0 g mmm . 085 mmm o3. vmm 30:0. mnm . mum. awn . €80 mmm. mated m3.~ nmo. moim 33.3 mos. omm. man. 00008 0002a smm . 2.0. N. 356 omm . mama mom. n mmm . mom . 3m . 00E 8 .3: A43: 99: A43: 320 8 a»: .3 a: t; 80 Amy 2; A2 8; AC 33 ”new 0553:0008 mmlmmma 5000 003.8 30000: 300 @000 000 000.35 a a m 55300 a L0>¢ 00 0.008.; 0033 2000 3300: 03330596 .0000 .80 00 5m .0000 .000 00328005 05.333 4.0.8 05 5 .000 000.092 0.090305 2000 0.30% 05 3 005033096 £000 030398 0.303.598 05 3 0038590 005000 000 0000 3309 00330 £000 38 00.0000: 000 N x a 0030 003000 000 00300: 000 «o 9.000 00002.32 00005.32 m 538 0008805 00005305 09538 080 00 2000 080 S3 .H 0>U9c82 >038 0005 0306:0000 :08 00300: 000 080 000 0300.380 .30 038. 190 .v.m flame do 6.56898 58 330$ mmm mo mmabzm 33:983. 05 3 8330 m 538 - m 538 .m.m flame .uo .82 5 .8806 838: mo 895: m5 5 BB>€ h 538 u m 538 .868 6.95 3... mo 8388a 2» you ”jugs ammo 38 932 x o 538 - N. 538 m5 293 do .82 5 3&8 9888: mo .695: x e 538 u m 838 .e.m wanna. do 653598 £80 9330: mum $035 Hmflagm 933 x m 55400 a v 55.30 .5Aw2 .~.m 3nt u N 538 .m 528 .dd «33 u H 538 EoflumfiqucH mo «850m 084 mmme mom.m 306m mead mmm. «36 mmoém momd mooé Hm~.~ flag; mmo.~ 53.3 mmm.» omm. 034. m-.~m vmo.~ mum. omo.~ BE wmm . Hmmfi vmm m3. mmm mom .m mmm . 5mm. mem . .558 mem. 813 mmmJ mvo. emm; v8.3 mvm. emm. mmm. 930.3% mmm. mom.v m3 voo. N3 mmmé own. cum. mmm. mmm. mmm. 2%;” m3 voo. mm oo~.m 3m. 3m. mam. as 550 95 among mom. whim mmm 0.8. chm ~96 com. mmm. mmm. ECU who. mafia vmm‘m mmo. mvm.~ mvmda $9. mmm. mmm. 350m ummim mom. £05 mmmfi mam. «mad v36 mom. mmm. mmm. 82 Am .9: A43: 9:6 13.2 99: A»... .3: A8 8v AS 3V A3 A3 A2 A8 A3 mama new w :83 836596 ..Cm ammo mg 8.5 mmm me mmmuwaa gauge. a H m EBHOU a a Lw>< 3 Pg :3 @5002 Ha .musufiéwaxm .QOHU HOW we saw douu Haw .wuaflncwgflm 9,338 HIDE 05 B mmmum>< 98550.8 ammo may; 05 >3 83»anan ammo uwmgfi .mnzuagnm m5 3 «Egg 8538: umm ammo H38. 8339 ammo 1309 830mm Hmm N x a 83m 858: mmm 8300: “am no 03mm noughg Huang m 5530 633395 639333 mac—300 mono no 0.3mm menu $2 .H 932.3»? 630m “8:: .méuéfiea 68 338: an mod Had c3883 .mad Same APPENDIX C PROJECTED PERI-IECIIARECASHEDCPENDITURES IN‘H-XIWAN UNDER POLICY ALTERNATIVE II, 1973-1984 191 .3. 032. do 03038 ammo 83o? ham 00 00896 05 E 803% m 538 I m 538 . 60088 83.08; 05 E Boga I. 538 .. m 538 .mufifiamxuafimm H33 92.2 x o 838 I N. 9530 2609995 $53.00: x v 55.30 I m 5530 .m0 0036:098 ammo 0.3002 u0m 00896 Hagan 92.3” x m 9:300 I c 5530 87.6.an $1". 032. I N E530 .m 5530 .e.e 398. I ... 55.30 .m.v magma .m .m 0.309 .w0 .m .m man—NH. .wo "cofiumEuOMCH mo ugh—Kym HmmJa vmmé 3Q: >m~.~ mom. Hm~.~ 3mg: emm; maoé mmmé 00433095 mvmd 395 Rm; :2. mmm; m¢~.5 vn~.~ mmm. mend 3E mNm. 30$ 3N mmo. mmm 3.0;. mmm. 3m. mmm. ”5:000 mmm .H mmv.3 Rota Nmo. >84 ~34: emm A 08. 21.4 0:00.390 ohm. «mo.~ S moo. mo 3.1m mmm. mvmé vwm. 00% mmm. 538 3% 30. o: mmm.m mam. mmmé mmm. . 980m .350 can cg omm . mmm .v «.2 mac. «3. won .v mom . m: A cam . Eco mmm. Smd mom; SH. mmm; 086 Km. «No; 3m. 3300 H005 NE. . 806 ommé mmm . woe; ~mo£ No .m m3 .a mmm. 00E 8 .sz A432 mezv A432 we»: 3 .9: 8V 8v At 2.: 8V 2: A3 A3 A: 2.44.3 83.5 ~53 haw menu 0.30.6896 00392 :08 0500: @009: .000 0$H02~ m 5530 .. IUMm 3 0.091.980 05 0033 2000 0300: 030E893 0995 new we Sm 009.5 00w 05% 03.033 8 «83% ~00 00.394 903.30%” ammo 0§u§09£ 05 3 003.6893 ammo 30905 E098 ammo 05 on 00503 0.4300: H00 ammo H38. “goat’s £000 308 338x “an N x a 0030 8300: H00 0300*. H0Q mo 0.30m Bugnud @3ng m 5530 E03355 0305395 mESHQu 980 we 039. g 2.3 .3 0>Humchwuj~ xowaom H095 @3900 Menu: 8 wudufimmxw £80 0300: “0Q gnaw—HOS .H .0 mafia. 192 ad 033 €500,090 5.8 8503 ~00 00 00390 165800 05 E 8330 m 538 I m 838 4&2 5 8086 8038: 0o 0095: an... E 00330 b 538 I m 838 68.8 3.82 me 8.38080 05 .80 00a»; .08 ASS 0.32 x 0 EH8 I N. 938 43..” 5 6000090 8.00000: 00 .3956 x v 5530 I m 8530 .m.m 0H3 .m.m 0an08 .mé 0309 05503098 £000 000000: 000 000H0>0 H3350 Ema x m 5530 I v 9530 .~.o 0309 I m 5530 m 8.300 4.0 0.30.“. I a 8530 "830.5005 00 80.300 mmm. $0.3 . :04 Chg: mmm.~ m3. moo.m 20.3 ~34 emm. emm; 00300000> $04.. 30.3 21m v8. 2&5 35.5 and mvmé ~v~.~ mug wmv. was; mmm mwo. vow 30$ 08. mmm. mmm. ”5:000 mmv .H 35.3” mmm .H $0. 034 Sn .3 mmm .H 8..” z... man A $090 mom . So .N .8 voo . no mmm . N mmm . Hmm . SIN . 00a. mmm . Hoaa 2: So. SH oooJ. now. mmm. mmm. 9300 H050 0:0 330 mmm . mmm .m mg 98 . v3 mmm . m Sm . mum . 8m . F80 Sm. Hmmfi 0mm; oma. mom; Swim mem. mmm. mmm. 80000 ”.0020 con. 23.0 om~.m «3. 030m 03:. emm. 3m. «2.. 00.8 8 .2 A432 3.20 7:02 9:6 3 920 $0 80 E 30 $0 a; 5 5 a mad HON 3A5 0033 000.30 3.000 05.000: a mono 000 .000 000093 0033ch .096 .80 a m 5530 0 I002 00 0.0055 2000 0.3000: .000 00:0..ncc09fi .0000 new 00 gm .0090 00w 0.303.00an 9339* I80 05 8 000.40% 0.000380 £000 030% 0.5 an 0.3... 8:096 £000 300290 “0.50% 05 8 0033.090 0.883 000 ammo 38 00038 ammo 038. 80000: 000 m x H 8E 0000000 000 0300: .80 00 033 038.2: 088.84 m 538 , 08938: 08832: 9:38 086 0o ovum 080 2.2 .3 900632 6:8 H005 mono 6?: 8 833090 5.8 338: 00 280 .~.u 033. 193 .m.w magma .ofiuficaea 5.8 338: HR“ «0 wom3>m 365.6% «5 E 833“. m 538 n m 838 .m.m «33 .,KS 5. 8&8“. mmuflufl no .895: «5 3 30?? N. 538 - m 538 68.8 no.5: 93 mo 8383a wfi uou Eggs ammo dBB FEE x o 538 u n 538 .m.m Eng 55 5 .8880 8508 mo 682 x v 538 u m 528 .m.o 3&8. .833; ammo 830m: umm momugm Hmagzoum mmm.“ x m 5530 I v 9348 67:2 8.38 .~.o manna u w 5530 .m 5.38 .~.o «32. .. H 838 “8.39585 no $0.58 Soé 23.3 mmm A 398 mow .m vow . mmm .m 35.3 mmm A mmoé :54 8333 N2..N ~mm.m~ 268 Sm. 89m 3me hmmfi mmm. 8m.~ mug mmv . «.3: m mow vNo . Sm NNm. v mow . m; . mow . Huang mamé 93.3 New; owe. ~34 mmmfia 37.1 ~34 mové gym mmm . nmm .m mo «.8 . No on .m «.8 . emm . com . m8. mmm . omiv SH 3o. m5 3m.m Pm . ooa. mam . «.58 .350 can 535m omm. oom.m 0: So. m3 movfi mam. v3. mmm. F80 mmm. mmmd ooo.~ m3. mmm; mind mmm. mmm. Sm. 330m 303m ad. . mats HS...“ 03 . 31m oomfi mmm . emm. o2. . 8E 3 .5. THE”: 2.2V Add: 22v Am .2 8v :3 At 3v 3V :1 A8 2.; 3; 2.3 Ham may? a mun—1.3 sumo 330m: A mofium mono “an 03.351 3333“.“ .080 Haw a m 5530 a 3392 0... 9% find 338: mmm may? .980 new no E6 .080 new was»? 933mm Album m5 3 monumé P8365 5.8 guflcmea m5 3 mBuchea 58 3356 355898 9.3 on 833596 mg Had 5.3 309 @0330 find 1.309 3300: Hmm N x a moan.“ .3500: Hum 8300: Hum mo ovum 8.39.34 638.9% m 85.30 noumsnvmc: Ema—.395 .015—£00 mono no 035. g mmm.“ ~HH gfiggz x038 nuns: macho wonm: :0 m§u§ find gum: Hum 03009.5 .md manna. 194 .m.m Magma. .m.m manna. .mudugm ammo 8300: umm uo M5396 Hawocgonm m5 >n Egg w 535.00 I m £5.30 .32 S. 8&80 c.8302 we 89:: Qt 3 833g 5 538 I m 528 .mnwuuo uoflmE Eu Mo sgsnoum 05 new 93»? ammo H33 Fora x a 5:300 I n 5.300 .m.m $33. 6an E... .vmaaohu mmuduuon «0 .385”. x v 5530 I m EBHOU .md manna .35qu ammo mg uma wmougw aflofigum 2.2 x m 55.30 I o 5:48 673.3 EBHOO .~.o wanna I N 9530 m EBHOO .m.u 3nt I a EBHOU “SUEOMCH uo mmousom mg. 03.3 H54 3.1mm mmm.m ZN . mode Sm .mm ~34 nooé 3&4 moanmuwm6> no .N mom .om mma .v mmm. mmm .v msm. mm wmn .N m? . NE. .m mug cow. Swim. mme mmo. New mmfim mmv. emm. mac. uscmmm Seam Nmnéa emm; mmo. :04 $9: vavé mmm. mam; goggm mam . mmm.~ 3. coo . ms mem .N ZN . mmm . mmm . 89 Sm . vow; m3 oao. m3 mamé mmm . m3 . mmm . 980m “850 can 5% mmv. ~35 03 moo. m3 moim mmv. 3m. omm. 500 2k. moim mNHJ m3. «Era. 80$ Sm. mmm. mmm. 830m 802m mom. oom§ mmm.»... mam. momé mnwé con. mmm. Sn. 003 Am .sz A432 99: 7:2 9;: Am .sz 8V 8V A2 A8 .3 2: A2 «my 3v mhma qu whlmnma may? umofium ammo 3500: a 8.0 mwm “mm 09394 .Qouu MOM a m EBHOU a I992 B m.m05> muduflvcmxmxm ammo gum: muduflucgnm .QDHU HON mo Ezm .980 How. Bdflcfimxm m>33mm HIDE m5 3 uwm magma. 9855““ ammo muduggm m5 .3 muzuflucmwaxm ammo 309.50 .8433 93 on wudufivcwaflm madam: mmm ammo H509 @0038 ammo 309 830% mmm N x a moan £300: mmm 338: 8m we 03mm 258.9% 858.2% m 938 gunman @3938: EH8 85 no ovum mob 2.3 ‘3 939:9? >038 395 Rod 3.3: co Paflucmaxm 58 «530% 3a REESE 4.0 29a. 195 .m.o mance .m .m manna. .05»? ammo Random: “an we $3.32.. 335% 05 Nb @0336 m 5530 .. m 5530 .RS 5. 3986 $58: «0 395: m5 3 33>? n 538 u m 538 68.5 Home... 93 mo §§m £0 yam when; ammo 139 Pong x w 9530 u N. EBHOU .m.m ~32. .23 5 .8880 858; mo 395: x v 9.38 .. m 538 .m.m 3nt .gufiufidxm ammo 8302 mom momugm Hawocgoum mbnma x m 5348 I v 5:400 .2333 5530 .mé manna I N 9:300 .m 5530 $10 «33. n H 5530 EoUQEowcH uo «330m 804 mamém Smé www.mm mmmé Sm. vové 038m momé :04 ~54 «fianmumeS mmmd mam.mm mmm; 5N. mom; SNJH mem.~ maoé H3.~ mug mmv . 2:. .m mmv N~o . mvv mmm.m vww . mmm . owe . yang mmm .H 32”.: gm; omo. no; mmm.: how; mmm. p.34 gnaw wNN . «mm .m S. coo . E. a: .N mam . emm . mam . 3:. mvm. mmm; m2 ooo. m3 53.6 mmm . 5mm. 3m. mamam abo ccm 583m mmv. 03.6 m: moo. a: mmvfi one. mmm. mmv. 58 won. 59m mmm.m m3. mm~.~ «.85 «an. mooé 02.. 350m ug mmm. Sim mead mom . mmmd mom 6 mom. 08;. m8 . «GE 3 .3: 73? mm»: 732 we»: 3 n5 A9 :3 AC 3V Amy 3; A3 A.2 A.2 2.3 new 5722 833896 umofium ammo 838: H 8.5 mmm mmm «0882 .QDHU 30m a m 55.30 a .994 3 Pg 8536598 ammo magnum: m§u§ .mouu u0u mo :Bm d8 new 8456.598 934“.an 410.5 93 0.... Mom mmmuw>< m.mo:..n>oum ammo muzuahwmxm mp3 3 gang ammo 30mg .mudufixmmxm m5 8 méuafixm 838: 5m ammo H38. magic :80 H38. 858: “mm m x H moflm $38: H8 @5300: Han mo 03mm @3934 Vmumdflg r m EBHOU 8.55.895 @3833: 9.530 mono no 035— EU ES ‘2 QUEBE 6:8 895 380 6.9: co wuauiaxm ammo 888: mmm 88$on .90 «38. 196 .m.o manna .333 ammo 94500: mmm mo M5896 335289 93 E soak—d o 5530 .. m 95.30 .m.m manna .23 fi 8&80 @302 no ~35: m5 3 835. h 538 n m 938 6080 no.9»: «5 mo cognpa 93 mo 833598 ammo H33 momma x o 9530 I N. 5.48 .m.m 038. .33 5 6950.3 8333 we .8852 x e 5.300 .. m 5530 .m.o manna £380: mmm 333w ammo $3.30 33qu 92.3 x m 9548 I q 5.3.00 .mhlhomd 55....8 .Né wanna. I N 95500 .m 55.30 6.0 0.309 I a 55:8 “8395083 no mmoudom 5mm. 50.8 “.54 oaofim oooJ 2mm. moo; vvv.v~ mmmé ooo. Smé 8H§woo> oom.~ «3.3” momfi mem. 3oz.“ www.mm omm.~ Fm. mmm.~ 32 mg . mom 6 m3. H~o . one mmm .m a: . oom . mmv . £58m mom ..H 313 1.34 who . v34 v3.5 mmm A com. mom.” 9.8.396 mmm. coin mm «.8. on Hmo.~ Em. mmm. mmm. mmm. Hmm . RN; m3 ooo. m: mmm; nmm . mmm . mvm . 930m 350 can among mov . mom .m 3H moo . 3H oov .m mov . Sm . mmv . Eco mom. omioa :M‘m N3. mom.m «Noam 91.. ohm. ooh. 330m umozm mvo. momé mmmé mom . Nmmd mono mmo . 3m. mmm. 8E 3 me 13m: 23 Tag #3 3 93 8o :3 AC Go 3v 3; A3 A.2 3o whoa yaw $3 2.4an ammo ”.00me 358: hum mouo mom omougc gag. a a m 55:00 a Lde 3 m .855. find «9300: Hum d8 ROM .85 new no 5m .090 Haw Snug “533$" 4.03 ms... Qu mvmug< FEE «Bug muduflucmanm 05 3 gaggm ammo 33:50 .muduflncwnvnm 93 Cu ”Sagan".— mnmdow: Hum ammo H309 3.ng ammo H38. 030w: umm N x H moflE mg Hum @503 Mg mo 0.5mm Ewan"! umumsflnc m 55.30 @3933: @3933: mac-:60 QOHU no 03mm 8.8 wood .3 m>UmFuauH< xofiom ~85 maouu uoflmz :0 83% find 8585 Hum @3098?“ 6.0 manna 197 .m.o manna .853? ammo 95300: mmm mo 839m. H305>oum «5 an @833 m 9530 I a 5530 .m.m manna 58H 5 8&80 858: mo 395: 05 F @898 p 538 I a 838 6.3.5 “emme an.» no Sign Eu new muzuducwmxu ammo H30.» wing x o EBHOU I 5 S558 H .m.m wanna .32 E 68580 mmuflofl no .895: x e 538 I m 538 .m.o magma. .93»; ammo 830m: mmm wage HMAUEBBQ 92.3 x m 5:100 I v EH8 .EImRH EH8 .~.o 322. I N 838 a EH00 6.0 328. I H 5.300 ":OUNEOMCH mo $0.38 So; 1 3.12 mmm; 03.3 :86 RN. ~33. o36~ m5; 3. NBA «3339 mmm.~ mm~.om ~vo.o Hem. m-.o mam.om mmm.~ mmm. umm.~ muwaum H3 . 9m .... 8v omo . mmv Sm . m EV . m8 . a3 . .358 Sn 4 v3.3 25; «8. 9H J a .3 3H 4 Km. men A $88 New. 2.1.” 3 3o. 5 33” omm. N3. m2. «2. SN. Sm; N2 So. m3 8.; Sm. mmm. 8m. 930m 350 «x8 cg 3m . mmmfi wow 25 . Sm moo . m 2% . m3. m8 . 58 3;. 92...: oom.~ m3. omm.~ $93 mmm. Ba. 85. 338 $96 HS. mmai 3.9m SN. and £05 mmm. Rm. 2%. 8E a .2 3:: 2.7: 332 22. 3 (rs _ 8V 8. E E 5 2; .2 E a $3 uou £33 835098 82m ammo 838: mono mmm non monumg H a. m EH8 H L94 8 m.8:..~> guagnm sumo 8.300: .980 Haw .QDHU He mo 36 .095 uOu was»? 933mm .nIon g 3 Hum 091“.ch 92>qu mudugg undugfixwxm Bu 3 musufiucmmunm :3 ”3ng .9336; m5 3 05»? mag Hum ammo H309 v8.33 :3 H309 0530mm “an m x a “.6me 8300: “Mm 0503 Hum mo oflmm 83%? “.8934 m 538 n38€§5 @8832: 9:38 mod mo 033 8H. 2.2 .3 m>fimfi32 x038 “mac: $80 no.8: :0 mfiuflgm 5.8 .888: Lam gowflfim #6 ~38. 198 .m.m man—.08 030.3330 £000 000002 H00 00 0000050 £30553 g >0 EH30 m 5530 I a 5:500 .m.m 3006 .83 5 0090000 005300£ no 00950 05 F 000030 N. 0.530 I m 5:400 .0095 00.90: 0.3 no 53800.3 0£u 000 0.30% £000 £0000 0.83 x N. 55.30 I n EBHOU .m.m 0.21.9 .83. 5 0000000 80.303 no 00850 x v 5:100 I m 9:400 .m6 033. 0.30% £000 000003 000 000.350 aflofiém 0.83 x m 5:100 I v 5:400 .omImhmH 9530 .md 3009 I N SSHOU .m 9530 9.0 0309 I a 9530 "00395005 00 000.38 804 nmmfim ova «Exam 086 EN. mmofi Sm.mm HmmA mmm. mmmé 0035095 wwv.~ 036». 36.0 mm. $36 30.2” oomd 3m. m~m.~ Mug Hmv. mp.» mwv m8. 3e 0:6 93. Sb. :3. 050000 mmmé «3‘8 mom; HS. mom .H «3.8 haw .H :m. :m 4 80am emm . 25;” NS woo . om emm. m mmm . Rm . Nwm . 00? onw. SNJ Nma ooo. m3 mmvé mmm. cum. 3N. 0:000 0050 0:0 535m mmm . mum...“ mmm moo. mmm Hmmfi Sm . mum. Ham . E00 Nmn. «3.: Sw.~ m3. 9.07m avid mmm. mmm. 03.. 0038 00030 mow. mvv.m 0.8;. ohm. meo§ 091m wow. 03. awe. 003 A» 92. A43: 220 A43: 9;: A» .06 30 a: A: E A8 A3 Amy A3 A: 2.3 000 omIahmH 05030099 0300 :03 258: a 9000 00m. H00 00932 833090 .080 08 a m 5.38 a L03 8 0.80.; £0.00 000000: 00m 0033 .990 000 00 .5m .0000 000 00:06:0me 03.029“ H.000 05 Qu 000M02~ 0.005.800 £000 05.53 g 3 005030096 £000 ”$00090 0.3080098 05 B guawnvnm 000000: H00 £0.00 H0009 000.38 £000 H008. 830$ .00 N x H 000.8 05300: 000 3308 “am no ovum vflgfluc 038.2% m 538 30882: 039920 9238 080 0o QUE 080 83 .2 932032 0:8 .095 $86 3.3: so 030330 .08 338: 00 §8fl8m .md mama 1195) .m.0 0300. 00500000000 £000 000009: 000 000090 0.005800 0:.» 3 0030030 00.0000: 000 00 0.300 I m 55000 .m.m 00000. 1000.0 «00 00000000080 £000 000002 000 00005n0< I 0 55000 .m.0 3000. .m.m 0Hn00. ..0000 0cm 005000000xm 2000 00009 00003004 I n czsaoo .003 c... 0000000 0008.00: mo 0005: x e 538 I m 538 00300590 :08 00300: 000 0080.0 0305.600 0.82 x 2.509 I e 538 .0732 538 .~.0 030.0 I N 538 .0 50500 5.0 04000. I H 5.0400 "800060005 00 0000500 08.0 mmodm 03.0 2.0.: 02.0 new. 0.8.0 000.3 mmmé 03. 30.0 0035095 mmv.~ 5.0.: 03;. 0mm. 30.0 000...; 0mv.~ 00m. 0mv.~ 000500 .36 . 000 .h mom 03 . 80 «N0 .0 a: . mmm . Ame . 000000 m¢~.0 0m~.0~ ~om.0 00o. 000.0 nm~.0~ ~m~.0 000. mm~.0 0:0000050 mmm. mové «.2 go. 03 30.0 mem. 00m. own. 000. 0mm. 25.0 o: moo. mg 0210 00m. m0m. 00m. 0:000 0050 000 0000860 0:. 3m.m0 mmm.m m3. o0m.~ 03.3 own. mmm. mmm. 000000 000.6 mmm . _ 30.3 30 .0 m0~ . 0~¢§ 08 .3 000 . 0mm . mo0 . 000x 8 020 73.02 00.20 0.03.: 00.20 3 0.20 80 u 80 A3 A00 30 2: AC 03 2.0 H om¢0 a 00I¢000 00=u0uc0mxm u«00000 £000 000000: ‘ 0 0000 000 000 000090 0030000900 “ .0000 000 0 0 95000 0 I020 3 0.00:? £000 000000: 000 " 000000000000 .0000 000 00 :50 .0000 000 005000000000 03.0000: I000 05 00 00000.6 0.0000600 . 2000 0050000005 05 00 0050020050 £000 0009.05 00000000006 0:0 00 00:000c00xm M 000000: 000 0000 00099 0000>0o 2000 00099 000000: 000 w x 0 00000 000000: 000 000000: 000 00 00000 F 000033 0000304 0 85000 00002000: 00003005 085000 0000 00 00000 800 $2 .00 9.306.002 0:8 000:: 0080 8.32 no 00300590 :03 00300: .00 0080.800 .00 030.0. 200 .m.o 0.300. .m.m 0.300. 00000000008 :08 000000: 000 00 00000>0 0000:0600 05 .3 00003.0 0 55000 I 0 50000 .Nmma :0 0000000 0000000: 00 0095: 0:0 >0 000030 N. 55000 I m 55000 .00000 00.35 05 00 00000000000 0:0 000 0030000900 :000 00000 0.800 x 0 95000 I N. 55000 .300 :0 0000000 0000000: 00 0095: x v 55000 I m 50000 .m.m 0.300. 0000000093 5000 000000: 000 00000>0 0000:0500 0030. x m 55000 I v 5.300 .NmIamma 5.300 .~.o 0.300. I N £50.00 0 55000 .00 0300. I a 55000 "800900.00H 00 800000 Hooé 03.3 03.0 $0.? 000.0. mew. 02.5 mmm.? mmmé mmm. 304 003000000, ANTN 30.3 02.10 mmm. 02.0 hmofiv mmv.~ mmm. mmvd 30000 Hoe. 80.0. mmm Duo. 0.06 wvmi. now. $0. Hmv. 000000 Hmmé ~o~.m~ ooo.~ go. So.~ 001mm 03.0 2.0. 2&4 050000000 mom. 03$ «ma woo. mg 03.0 omm. $0. 0mN. 000. mmm. 000;... v3 moo. o3 mm~€ mmm. 0mm. 0mm. 0:000 00:00 0:0 0.00930 omm . $0.6 mum moo. omm mmm. o mmm . mmm. mmm . :000 0.00. 30.3 288 moo. mmo.m 03.2. vow. omm. 02.. 000000 00020 Hum. N360 NamK mmm. 30.0. 03.3 mmm. mmm. mmm. 0000 Am 07: 0.302 0.06 0.30: 906 Am 020 So 8o AC Go Amy 2; Amy 03 A: .80..” 000 0000000000000 NmIHmoH :000 000000: a 000000 0000 000 0000000 .300 000 A m 50000 0 0000020 00 0.00.000, 0000000005. :000 000000: 0000000000040 .0000 000 00 :50 .0000 000 0000000000000 03.00000 0000 0:0 00 00 00000.2 0.0052000 £000 00000.0:00xm 05 an 0000000000000 5000 000:0..0 00003 0:0 3 003000005 00300: 00: 2.0.00 038. 00003: 0000 030.0. 000000: 00: m x 0 0000: 000000: 00: 0038: 00: 0o 930: 038.84 089.8... m 55000 088.0005 089.0005 0:508 080 0o 000: 900 $3 .00 9000680.. 003: 000.5 00000 00.00: co 00:06:09.0 5.00 000000: 00: 0300.80: .30 0300. 201 .m.m manna. .n.m manna .mudufivcflfm 5000 0300: H00 00 mmmuga Hmfleagflm 93 >0 @0038 m F5H00 I m 55H00 .33 c... 00000.5 8u50£ no .395: 05 3 00033 n 5:400 I m 5:300 .0093 “0.9;: 0:0 00 :030300ua 05 ~00 83.80098 £000 #38 0.83 x w 95:00 I h 55:00 .m.m 0.309 .32 5.. 00900.8 00.8500: 00 M095: x 0 5:400 I m 55:00 .mé 0309 0.3000598 5000 330m: .00 00.30% H305>0um 0;”me x m 55.30 I v 5530 .mmINmmH 9530 .~.o 0309 I ~ 9530 m 9530 .3 .0 0309 I a 5530 "coUSDONGH 00 00038 304 08.3 8mg 39? RM; mmm. Sma eem.? «SA 8.... 084 833002, mmm .m 3900 mom .3 man . 00m .3 mma 60 an .N cam. 30 .0. 3.350 mmm . 001m 0mm 03. mmm mm: .m mmm . who. 30 . use—00¢ 0:4 Smém Swim 000. _ HNNJH 39mm ONNA mmm. Amma— 056% mmm . mom 5 mg woo. m3 mmm .m com . H3. mo~ . 02. now. 2.06 m5 moo. mma mmm; mem. mg. «mm. 9000 .850 0:0 cmmnaom mmm. 03.0 3m aoo. 3m mmmé Hem. m3. emm. F30 $0. 2.0.3 ~m~.m woo. Swim 25.: ewe. «mm. 30. 3300 000.5 0mm. 09.: mnmé mvm. 530 30.: mmm. Rm. 1%. 83 a E 3:: 23 m 3:: was a .9: 80 80 A: 80 Am. 3: A2 A3 A: ~03 .30 05.06.0900 mmINwma find 000:.“ 9300: 005 a 0090 0mm. 0muu0>¢ anagram .095 000 a m 5530 A Iu0>< 3 0.005% £m00 058m u0m 0§u§09m .0000 .50 00 :5m .0900 HOW 0506:0003 03033“ a 05 3 000.354 P009395 £000 0330:0900 05 E 0.30% £0.00 #09850 0.50% an... 3 0.30530 0088: $0 find 03.8. 00098 5.8 038. 058: an m x H 8:5 Eflofl 3.. 838: 00m 00 030m 089.2% 08.0100 m 538 089005 089395 3530 086 we 805. n.20 82 .3 0300582 @200 0005 macho “ohm: :0 05000:QO ammo 8500: Um 0383K 410 038. .m .0 $32. .83; ammo 830m: umm no 00896. 335203 93 E 83>? o 3:18 I m 5530 202 .m.m 032. .35 5 8&80 850% mo 39.5 m5 3 83>? N. 538 I m EH8 6998 Home 93 no 83in m5 3w 0.3»? ammo H39 9.52” x e 55.30 I n EBaoo .m.m 033. .33 5 6950.5 @309. m0 Hon-5: x c 55.30 I m 55.30 .m.o 3nt .wufifiggm ammo 058: hum mmwugm 33550.5 coma x m 5530 I v 55.30 émImmmH EH00 .~.m wanna. I ~ €5.30 .m 55.30 .30 wanna I H 5530 "8.39585 wo 809:8 oooA HNmKM m2. 4 mod .om Hom .m Gm . So. m can .mm ohm A omo A mom .H $H§6m0> mem .N 2.ko HmoJH mmm . mmm.~.~ «8.3 m3. .N 364 mom .N mug mmm . coma mvm mHo. mom mmmé 8v . nooé mmm . 350m :34 vmafim HN~.~ So. hom.~ moiom RNA mooé 034 monogram mom. 310 mg ooo. a: Sad omm. nooé ohm. m8. Sm. mnofi. mm: moo. m: Swim Sm. mmm. Sm. 930m H930 can. fix.“ emm . 2&5 mmm moo . mem mme. 3m . moo .H mmm . F80 ova. moméa ov~.m moo. omm.m 2%.: one. maoé Sm. 330m 505 mmm. 091: monim Hmm. hohé mmm.: Hem. N.B.H vmm. 00.2 Am .sz A43: 32v 1qu 23 Am .9: So a: At So 13 2; A2 A3 2o 33 hem gufig v I83 sumo moaum g mmm a 00.5 wvm momum>< musufimavfl dons pew a m 5:300 a Jum>¢ 3 900:?on ammo 830m: mmm wudfidcwmxm .Qouu uOm Mo Esm .mouu Law m§u§§ 9330a a 05 on monum>< 98520.8 :mmO mguggm 65 E musufiwaxm ammo “$95.0 mag 93 8 8:36:03 338: 3m ammo H38. @838 ammo H38. 0538: umm m x H 83m goon uwm 838.: 8m we 03mm Bumsflnc 863.9% m 538 @8882: 33:32: 8530 85 mo 03mm 88 $2 .3 QUEEZ >028 .32: 396 89: co mfiugmaxm £28 338: Ba Euumfloum .26 Same APPENDIX D PROTECTED PER HSECI‘ARE CASH EXPENDITURES IN 'IAIWAN UNDER POLICY ALTERNATIVE III, 1974-1984 203 .m 55.98 4.0 manna .mu .mg Snag .musfivcoea nm8 9508 Sn we 38?,» 3858a 9: E 8330 m 538 u a £38 .m.m 298. .32 5 E580 838: mo ~35: wfi E 35% s 5.38 - m 538 .mmouo 3.85 «5 «0 8388a 9: How 866.098 58 H38 922 x e 538 - h 538 .32 5 .Bamob 858: mo ~35”. x v 538 u m 838 dug»; sumo 838: Hma 3396 amwgém 93.3 x m 9530 u v 55100 672.2 538 .mg Ens. . m 538 683:5 2.2 9a. 32 .938 58» 3.52823 fisfie Ed @3595 A 538 "fiflgofiH mo 88:8 .m.\. manna. .m.m 3nt coo; «No.3 89H 3%.: m8.~ NZ. o~m.~ «3:: 2m; 3m. «.34 835m$> mmm .m magmm Burn. SH. So.~ oE..- an .m mmo .H Nvm .N 33 m3 . oov . v mmm mmo. mmm a: . v m: . HE. . mmm . uncuom mmm A amima :NJ mmo. SN; «3 .3 own A mmm . mmm .... 33m mom . 3o . m 3 voo . mm £54 03 . Eb . ohm . and. com . ~38 m3 do. mma mung” Hmm. m3. mmm. 93mm umfio 98 g 2%. mmné m2 moo. «ma mow; 3v. oom. emm. Eco mmm. NNNQ. mom; «3. mmm; mad 3o. Sm. mmm. 9.38.»de mmm. mowim Hmmfi Be. Smfi 25:. was. mooé «an. 83 Am Bzv A43: wfizv A43: 9;: Am .2 A8 a: at E A3 A3 AS AN. 3. :3 now v .22 gag ..Cm 5mg 8.5 0.5300: Hmm a OEHU>< 0832‘ muduawmxm .85 “On a m 5.300 a B when? :8 050% me gag .980 ken mo E5 .85 we was; 933ml bum 05 B «@393 m.woc..n>oum ammo mudugg mg» an «and»? ammo ammxg .85»; an... 8 83% 981.60: mmm ammo H38. conga 58 ~30? 9.300: Hmm N x a 8.3m 3300: “am $38: mmm mo 03mm cough? Bums“? m 538 @8838: 86:38: EH8 mono yo 03mm 85 3.3 J: 93953? 3.30m .395 acids 5 mguu uohmz uOu 8532098 ammo 830w: uwa 60000.35 4.0 manna. 204 .m.m manna. .mé. .3nt .wuduflucmaxw ammo 83002 yum mo mmmugm 13058.3 93 3 Egg m 5.300 I a £530 6:: 5 @888 8.58: mo Hg: m5 3 “.838 h 538 I m 8.38 .maouo uonms 93 we 5338a 05 new wuauaanxw ammo H30.» thma x o 9530 I h EBHOU .mé. 25MB .m.m wanna. .mhma an" 6098.3 8.2153 mo awn—5c x v EBHOU I m 9530 .musufimga ammo 3g me mmmugm HmeGfl/onm 9&3 x m EBHOU I v 9530 .mblvhaa €5.30 .NH wanna. I N 55.30 .m 65.30 .Hd manna. I H EH8 Boga—EOE: Ho 3938 ooo.H o-.o~ How.a Hmo.o~ vmv.m vha. amm.m mmm.om ham.a mmm. oqw.a meQMuwwm> omm.~ moo.om mnn.m mma. mmn.m mm~.om va.~ mhm. mmm.~ muflsum mav. oom.m mmv Hmo. Hmv omv.m vmv. mmm. mvv. vacuum mav.a ~mm.ma hmo.a vmo. mmo.a www.ma va.a ~mo.a mmm.a acmonmmsm mam. mvn.~ om woo. vs ovm.~ mad. mmm. mom. was mvm. omv.v How oao. Hem mmv.v mem. mm¢. com. madam umnuo new cmmnxom nmw. mom.m Hma moo. Hma oom.m hmv. owm. 05¢. auou mmm. mmo.m mwo.m voa. moa.m wmo.m mow. Hum. vmn. eunuom umm3m ¢mm. ovm.oa mma.w woe. ma~.m Hmm.oa mvm. mao.a mmm. moam Am 92V A.~Hflz.wazv A.~Hfix mez. A» gzv Amv Amv “NV va Amy Avv Amy ANv AHV quad new musuwucwnxm mNIvnaH ammo umowum mumuom: Hum a 00.0 mom womugt‘ musufiucwmxm .mouu HOu a m cesaou a Inm2< Op m.mocw> nmmu manuom: Hum musuwucwmxm .QOHU new mo 55m .monu uOu mnsuwncmmxm m>wumHmm «loam us» on mmmumzm m.moc«>oum nmmu masuficcwmxm mnu up mnsuflccwmzm ammo ammcmnu .musuflucwmxm mnu 09 musufiucwmxm wumuuo: uwm ammo Hugoe cm©a>fio ammo Hmuoa unnuom: mmm N x a mowum mumuoo: Hum 8385 mmm «0 oflmm Bumsflna 83%? m 538 «.3838: c3832: «£38 8.0 no 0.39. no.0 £2 .HHH 9.32.482 6:8 “8.5 538 5 REG no.3: now «Bufig ammo 838: “an uBoonoE .~.o ~38. .mK 03mg. @5330me find 330m: umm wo momugm 335.289 05 3 86.33 m 5530 u o 5530 .m.m 39a. .22 S. 8&80 $302 mo 35: 9n E @836 h EH8 - m 538 .mmob 8.92. Bu no 83835 m5 uou 8%; £8 H88 982 x o 538 - F 538 .m.m 038. 63a 5 69598 838: no .395: x v 5530 I m 5300 .mfi 388. .833598 nmmd 8.30m: awn mmmugm 1.358%“ mbnma x m 9530 .. e 55.30 637mg.“ 5530 .NK wanna .. m 5530 .o 5530 .md manna u a 5530 ugflgouca u0 350m 205 So; omimm momé 26.2” omm.m m: . mmm.m one .mm Hmm A mmm. H84 83.0303, «mm.~ mafimm mmm.v v3 . com; mom.~m mmmd 3o. own .~ 32 won . mom .m Hmv m3 . nmv moo .m Hon . 25. m3. .558 m3; 25.x Rm; 8&8 H34 o3; 3.3 8% 3N. 2.1m 8 «co. mo ogd Sm. 23. SN. m2. mmm . mop .v vom moo . How mem.". Hmm . omo. mvm . 988 .350 was :mmnmom omv. Swim vow moo. oom 2&6 H3. 2.5. 3v. 58 m5. 2.56 SQN o3 . mmm.m omo.m So. mmm. mmm. 330m ummnm mem. H313 Sim mow. 81m 3.4.3 mmm. mmm. mmm. 82 a 97: A432 mezo 73H: mfizv G .9: 8V 2: at So So 3; A2 23 .3 wood new Quay—flea wnnmhma ammo umofium 330m: umm a mono mom. 00892 musufincug demo HON a m 9530 fl L92 0» 93 ammo 8382 “mm 833ch .mouu no“ mo .56 .mouu .8.“ 8.3% mud/33mm anoum on.» 3 mmMumSc 985203 ammo wguflocmmxm 9.3 3 mudquwaunw ammo .0955 $539896 93 9 was»; 9:38: Ham nmmu 309 @0093 ammo ~38. 33003 uwm m x H 83m minnow: Hum 838: H8 mo 03mm n88?“ vBmshE m 9.38 @3933: 3932: 9:38 86 «o 2.5. mod £2 .HHH «>395»? >028 his REG no.8: co gag ammo 830% an 860an .2. mafia 206 .m.m manna. .mfi 03.3. .guggm ammo 8.300: mmm no magma/u 3.3583 05 3 08.33 m EBAOU I m EBAoo .22 E 8&06 8538: mo 385: m5 3 Bod/B h 538 I m 538 .mmouo uoflmE may no cauguoum «5 3w who»? ammo A33 92.3 x o 5530 I h 95:00 .m.m $.33. .m.m manna. .553 5 .Uommouo 85300: no 35: x e 55.30 I m 95:00 .mguggw sumo 830m: Ha momugm AmAufiaum Pong x m EBAOU I q 5530 $72.3 5530 .NA. game I N 5530 .a 8:500 .md Eng. I A 5:400 "SUEOMCH mo 888m AooA Amnfim Rm A mom. 3.. gm . o m: . mom 6 ooo. vm hmm A Rm . mom A $A§mmw> «SYN NS...“ 31m 08. mmAfi mvmfim ooA.~ Sm. ¢m~.~ BE mom . 31o m3. m8. mmv vmo.m Sm . .23. com. panama mow A com. «N «AN. m moo . mow. m 3me wow A mmo A mmv A gunman mmm. Noan moA coo. mm 3». .m mom . omm. mAN. ma. mom . AhmJ mom moo . now moo.m 8m . 3m. mwm . 9.30m 30 can 58%“ «we. mnofi mmm moo. omm mad oAv. mmm. mow. Eco ovo. mmmdA mgrn. moo. SYN AmmdA 9%. 3m. moo. 9g umflfi omm . ooo.»; mom .3 mow . com .3 who .3 So . boo A mem. mow“ a Bzv AAAA: was AAAAZ may: 3 ezv 8V 3. AS Go 7.: 2: Amy A3 A3 8.3 new 2382 «Bug umoflm sumo 830$ A 90.6 man now 09394 .QOuU paw A m. EDAOU A Loan 3 98:? @9365va ammo 94500: 95»? .mouu new no 56 dob new musuflncwmxm 935mm AIDS 05 B hum mvmumxé P855?“ ammo as»; Q3 .5 musufiucmmxm ammo «0936 .53 93 3 33358 830mm Hmm :90 A38. @0335 find A38. mHBomm uwm N x A 8.3m 3500: mmm 338: umm no oflé @3934 8332 m 538 Eugflflg 83:32: 9238 mod «o 3.5. and 2.3 A: w>UmFHmuA< modem .695 $6.0 .89.: :0 836696 ammo $500: Ha goon.“ .v .0 mafia. 207 .3. ~38. .Esfluaaxm 58 8382 Hum “0 $89... Aflofisa 9: E Bod/An m 538 I m 538 .m.m 30.2. .23 :A 8&80 858: we 395: m5 3 BB>€ A. E38 I m 5.38 .mmouo uoflmE mnu we cofluosuoua wcu Hem wuauAuchxm :mmo Amuou m.mnmA x w CEDAOU I m casaoo .m.m Eng .32 5 .3808 @858: «0 695a x A 538 I m 538 A.“ Eng. .méuécmwm ammo 388: 8a mmmfiSm ASSABE 932 x A 528 I v 538 5872.2 9530 .mg. «38 I N 538 m CEDAOO .e.o @Anwe I A_:E:AOO "COHumEHOMCH mo mmouaom Aoo.A mVA.mN mmv.A www.mm mm~.m AmA. Am~.m Nme.n~ mmv.A mmm. mmm.A moAndummo> vNA.~ mmo.mm mom~m mom. mmo.m mom.mm mAA.N mom. va.~ muAdhm mom. Aoo.o mmv nAo. mow com.o mmm. Amm. mmm. uscmmm Ava vmmfim Asqm moo. oom.m vomom vmmA omoA mmwA 05.0ng mmm. omm.v mAA voo. oOA mmm.m mAN Amm. omm. mma Aom. moA.m mom moo. oAN mm~.m mmm. vvm. mom. mcumm umsuo new amonmom mow. mvv.m mom moo. Aom Amm.m Nov. mmm. mmv. cuoo mmm. mmv.AA mmo.m Amo. mmo.~ oAv.AA Ame. Nom. mew. Cannon umozm wmm. mem.mA wvm.AA Nov. mAm.AA mom.mA vmm. moo.A omm. moAm A» 92o A.AAAE mazo A.AAAZ mszo Am 92o Amv Amv Amy Aoo Amo Av. Amy “No AA. mmmA new meRmA mSquSGQ mOAum nmmu mumuom: A mono mmm mmm womuméc muduAUcwmxm .mouu new A m SbsAOU A Iuw>¢ Op m.wUCA> nmmu eunuom: Hum musoAuchxm .mouu qu un.=ngw .QOHU HOu muduAccwmxm m>AumAmm AIOHQ any on mmmumfia m.w02A>oum 2mmu mudufivcmmxm wcu an musuflvcwmxm cmmu Ammcmsu .musuAuchxm m5 8 838% 338: 8m ammo A38. @838 ammo 38. 38.00: mmm N x A mafia 330w: mmm 8808 3m mo 04.5 @3934 gushfl m 538 @3832: @8932: 338 086 we ovum and 33 Ad 933582 620m H85 Rob 3.32 so 83% ammo 838: 8a @3838 .md 2nt 208 .m.m 0.368 .m4. 398. .833 :98 93902 umxm no mmmumzm Hafiofisum Q5 3 835% o 9530 I m EH8 .mp3 5 0950.8 @300: no .395: m5 3 Egg N. 5:300 u o 5530 68.5 “ohms 05 «o 8.3ng m5 Mam wnauimmxw :98 ~30» mono." x m 5.300 .. h 9530 .m.m mance .mp3 5 6950.5 $500: MO .395: x v 5.300 I m EBHOU .mK $38. 633% sumo 830m: ham 8mg 335289 momma x m 5:400 .. v 95.30 $72.3 5530 .mé. 0.38. u N 9530 .m 95.30 .md 038. n H 5530 "EUGEOMCH wo 80.38 oooé vowiom ommé ooo.~m oom.o m3. 366 «Noon H34 who. n34 Rwanflwmg ~m~.~ emm.? «2.4. mmm. mmofi .23.? omod moo. v3.~ 3am mom . oooK mom So . mam ooofi mem . Sm. mom . gnaw m3. 4 «moan ovm. m moo. ovo.~ mmm -m mom .H omo .H 3m .H magnum—4m New. mmm; mma voo. HNH mem; Hmm. omm. now. mg mmm. 346 Hmm moo. mom 031m mom. mem. SN. 93mm .350 can 533m v9. Sod Hmm oao . mmm mam§ mom . Hmm. mow. 500 one. main 31m moo. ooo.m month; mmm. mom. Nmo. 330m ”.096 mvo. 5.3.3 omi: nmv. $13 35.: mom. mooé emm. 82 3 he A432 9:6 A432 99: Am .9: I .IJ .3 :3 AC Go 7.3 2; A2 AS A: whoa new 03% m loom... ammo in 0503 Hum a $0.5 mmm mmmumsd ousunxgm .mouo ”Bu 4 m 5.300 H 3354 cu P855 ammo 0500: Hum m§u§ .mouo new no Sm .aouu new 33% 933mm abum 935» gunman PoBHBum nmmu wusuflucmaxm 93 3 333596 ammo 3?an .833 m5 8 BEBE 338: 6m ammo ~38. @838 :98 ~58. 338m “an m x H 8E 338: you 338: mmm «0 03mm 258.9% nougflfi m 538 @3932: 83:88: EH8 no.0 no oflmm 8.0 ohm.“ .HHH m>3g32 339“ Hugs maouu no.9: :0 may“? ammo 8300: Hma goomoum .e.e magma. 209 .m4. wanna. .m.m 0.219 0593:0008 2000 00300: H00 00 00050 335.2000 0:.» 3 0005? m EH8 I m 53:00 .82 5 09508 mflfloon mo 305: 05 E 982 x n 538 I a £38 .0005 5mm... 05 no 005000000 05 ~00 w5u€c00x0 £000 :30» coma x o 9530 I o 55:00 .m.m 3208 .82 S. .8085 8509. 0o 085: x v 538 .. m 5.38 .mK 0309 050% 5000 0.5000: .00 000.00%. H0285 83 x m 55.30 I v EH00 .omImomH 9530 .NK 0309 I N 53:00 .m 5.300 6.0 0309 I H 9530 "coflgflcH 00 55cm moo. 3Q: mawé mvmém NSQ. m3. mmmK ooo.? mmmé who. ommé m033000> 034 ooo.: ammo SN . m3. m Now. mm m5 .m 03. mmm .N 355 man . $0.5 mmm 3o . m3 mmm .0 0mm . omm. mmm . 5:000 304 035m ovm.m ooo. H38 03.3 «2.4 mmoé mvoé 559m ooa . 3m. v o3 moo. a: 39m Hmm . mmm. New . 009 ohm. mmm6 mmm ooo. SN mmoé mom. mem. omN. 0:000 0050 0:0 among ohm . m: . m mmm moo . mom ooooa md. . 3m. vmv . 500 mmm. mmm.: Hm~.m Nmo. mmm.m Smfia mmm. mmm. mmm. 00300 0003 wow. «No.3 30.3 0mm . 313 Noo.m~ mmm. mooé mvm . 03: 3 B7: :43: mg»: :43: may: Am .3: 2.; a: A: Go Amo AS :3 Amy .3 who." 5 0503 I053 2000 «um 05300: ~00 a 00.0 000 000003 05030098.: .0090 000 a m 5530 a I002 00 0.08.3 £000 090000: 00: 0530:0006 .005 H00 00 Sam .005 000 05050096 05.330: HI95 05 09 00000>¢ 0.000505 £000 05503: 02.... on 05050098: 2000 «00:50 .5»; 05 3 0530:0006 0.5000: 000 £000 H38. @0330 £000 .3009 0300: .000 N x H 0050 0.5300: H0: 050$ H8 00 oflmm 089.84 Bums“? m 538 @9982: 08982: EH8 080 mo 0.3.». 80 82 .HHH 5306002 >030“: H095 00000 00mm: 00 0505.00me £000 05.000: H00 Eugen .hd 0.309 210 4.4. 0300. 00:30:98 3000 000000: 000 no 00000>0 404050500 05 an 00043.0 0 55400 I 0 55400 .m.m 0430.4. .4004 :4 0000000 0000000: no 0095: 0:0 an 0004>40 N. 55400 I 0 S530 .0080 00.40: 030 no 840030000 05 000 005040000900 3000 4000... 0.4004 x 0 95400 I 0. 55400 .4 .m.m 0430. 4004 :4 0009000 0000000: no 0095: x v 95400 I m 55400 .m.» 0430.4. 0034000098 0000 0.40003 000 000.0020 4040:0600 0.4004 x M 55400 I v 55400 4007804 95400 .NK 0430.4. I N 55400 .0 55400 .00 04300. I 4 95400 "5400:0034 no 009300 ooo4 400.3. 55.4 mmm.? mmo.m 34. Sci $0.0m ~34 2.0. M4v4 84300009 v4m4 4-.4m 040.0 mmm. 43.0 00N4m 0.40.4 2.0. 034 30.0.00 vom . «m4 . 0 «mm m4o . cum 004 .0 gm . mmm. 04m . 05:000 44.0.4 040.3 086 400. moo... 040.2. 434 0.34 30.4 0000000000 «.04 . 004 .m ~m4 80. -4 can .0 04.4 . emm. 004 . 000. mmm. 43.0 omm moo. 0mm $0.0 mmm. mem. own. 0:000 0050 0:0 :00300m mmm . mow . 0 00m moo . mmm pom . m mmm . «mm. ohm . :08 gm. mmm.: mmvxn who. mvv.m 3.0.4.4 4mm. com. «um. 000000 000.0 mmm . mmv. mm 5m .04 man . mmm .04 www.mm mmm . N404 mom . 0040 3 .sz 0.4442 00.5 0.44.2 0.06 3 he :3 .8 at $0 a: a; 5 5 .40 80.4 .000 40.82 00500590 000400 2000 0.400002 4 0000 000 000 00000>< .0000 000 4 m 55400 4 I093 00 0.00:? 00340—00900 3000 000000: 000040598 00.5 000 no .50 .0000 000 0.9009096 02.3048 4.0.00 05 B 000 0000020 0.0055000 £000 00344000050 0:» 3 0000040000950 2000 400:3 000040.096 05 3 00340000900 00.300: 0.00 2000 40000. 000430 50.00 4000.4. 000000: 000 N x 4 00400 0.00000: 000 0038: 000 ..6 oflmm 08842 803.8... m 0548 089.805 038.408: 0:548 080 00 oflmm 0U.0 4004 .444 9000:0002 00400 0.00:: 000.00 00.3: :0 0050400098 2000 000000: 000 00.000.40.00 .05 04300. 211 .m.m manna. .mfi manna. .muduago ammo 3300: man no 8032.. Managua m5 3 @0953 a 5:58 I m 65.30 .Nmma cw 0096.8 838: no .5935 and 3 @0098 h 5530 I m 5530 .398 .53: «5 no 83968“ B» we 833.598 ammo .233 933 x e 8530 I h EH8 .m.m manna. .33 5 6098.8 3.4300: .u0 .395: x v 5530 I m 5530 .mK manna. fins»; nmflo 0.3900: mm @5396 335.39 Pamma x m 5530 I v 55.30 .mmIHmmH 9530 .Né. n32. I m 55.30 .m 5530 .md 038. I H 9:400 ”539585 we 8858 804 25.2. mem .H 0mm .3. Sm . m m2 . 5mm. m Sm .2. Sn .H mmm . Km .H flanfimvms New; mmofim ~51: omm. «3.: 356m ommé mum. v34 33 mmm . mmm .m mmm NS . mmm mvm . m mmm . 3m . com . “Scam m2. 4 men . .3 Ham. v Nmo . ohm. v 3m .3 9:. .H Re .H H54 gm How. .256 a: moo. «.3 mmmfi m3. mmm. cod. mmm. Sm. H36 m3 coo. mmm mmni mNN. 5m. mMN. 930m .550 «Em 509g omm . 03 .3” m3. moo . m3 cum .3 3m . 5mm. 3m . F80 mmm. $5.3 mmm.». i.e. 32...». www.ma Hmm. mg. mem. 830m .505 mmm . mmm . om m3. . 3 Hon . 3m .ma 2:. .3 emm . boo ..n as . 8E 8 973 A432 my: A43: may: 8 .9: 8v 2: AS A8 Amy 3; A3 A3 A3 .83 new 3.83 9.33.35 ”~8qu .38 2500: a 8.0 mom Hum 0093.2 833893. dob .8“ a m 938 . L9... 8 985... ammo 038: you 353.0% .096 new mo saw .990 new 95936 933mm HI95 0.3 B mmmugc 92.6.5 ammo may? on» .3 833.6% ammo «0898 $qu m5 3 m§u€89a 3382 nun ammo H38. 3330 ammo H88. mace: mmm m x a 8:5 838: umm mg H... mo 0.33. @8984 @388... m 538 Buflflumcs Bugfluncs 9:38 mod we 035. and $3 .HHH 939532 .028 6?: maouo 8.9.: no man; 58 838: nun Bfiuflflm .md 3am... 212 .m .n Snag. .333 :98 338: Ian no $8.9m $8:qu on... 3 R696 m 538 I a £38 .m.m @395 .32.. 5 Eu 83002 u0 .895: $5 3 v03>flo N. 5.300 I m 5530 .mmouo woman 99 mo ~53qu m5 new wfiugcwmxw ago 1.53 983 x w 55:00 I N. 5530 .83 5 .vommouu @300: no .395: x v 55.30 I m 3.300 .mé. manna. .muduaga ammo .8300: awn mmegm 3358.3 983 x m 5530 I v EH00 .mmmHImmmH 9530 .wfi wanna. I ~ 5530 .m 55.30 5.0 033. I a 5530 "839535 no 330m 804 03.5 Em A #3.: omm . 3 m3 . mmm .3 35.3 mmm .,n mmm. mem .H wafigg 254 >213 «.212 mmm. main.“ $1.8 N34 m3. ~84 mug «hm. «Inga mmm do. mmm v.86 2h. mmm. mmm. £53m 91.4 89mm mmmfi mmo. mmmd wav.mm $54 owed «2.4 38% mom. mvoi. a: moo. >3 omvé N3. mmm. Sm. man. MHN. momfi mNN woo. vow 346 Ag. mem. Sm. 988 $50 g among mmm . mmm. d mam moo. mom mom .3 mmm . 5mm. 0mm . 500 3m. mmmKH mvoé Eb. mmoé Ems: 3m. Sm. mmm. 930m £53m mmm. 80.3 «8.2” mmm. mafia >219” mmm. N34 mmm. 8E 8 92. A432 my»: 732 2.3 G .9: 3V .8 at 6V Amy 2: A8 A3 3. ~34 MOM gag mmemS ammo umoflm mg mg A $0 mmm $9.354 53:09AM .mouo uOu a m 5:300 a Lust 3 989.395 :90 $300: mmm 353 56.0 new we 85m .095 u0u was»? 933mm a 05 3 magmas m.m0:§0um ammo «523% 9.3 an wyuwvgnm ammo «REED .833 an» 3 was: 338: Hmm ammo 1309 @0330 ammo H395 gum: Hmm N x a 83m 8500: hi mg 3m no 03mm _ v88“? “98.84 m 838 Eggheads “Vaughan EH8 mob «0 ads. 86 82 .HHH 9383»? I028 395 R80 moan: co muzuimea :98 338: “an Buuoflgm .3d 34....m 213 .m .n mance .333 ammo 8302 umm uo macaw?» H3859 wfi 3 80?.8 m 5.300 I m 5530 .m.m «38. .35 5 Banana 858: go ~35: m5 3 8336 h 538 - m 538 .Kouu no.5. wfi no 83088,“ m5 uou $qu £8 33 9.52 x o 538 u n 538 .m.m wanna. .Vwad 5 .EU $3 MO 352 X G EH8 O m EH8 .mK 398. .833 swan 838: uma womugw waocgoua Pvmma x m 95.30 I v 5530 .«wmalmmma 55.30 4N4. wanna. I N EBHOU .m 55.30 .oad wanna. I H EH8 “EUQHOucu we 33m Hoo.a Nam.mo omm.a Hmo.m¢ oo~.~H nma. mw~.~a n~m~¢v mm~.H «mm. nam.~ mmHnmummm> ¢vn.a oan.mo omh.ma Nvm. www.ma Hmm.mw mmn.a mum. vcm.a muddum mmm. wom.m mmm oao. mmm mmm.m NwN. mmm. vn~. uncmmm oom.a omw.mw Hmo.m mmo. mmo.m Hmm.mm vom.u Nmo.a mvh.a mcmoummsm na~. Hn~.w mod moo. Hma omo.n oom. mmm. men. 098 mmm. Hnm~m me woo. mmm won.n mow. mem. MAN. madam umnfiu new cmmnxom wmm. mmv.~a nmm moo. Hmm mmm.ma mmm. 5mm. mmm. :uoO mmv. mam.ma mmv.v moo. mmv.¢ www.ma vow. mom. Ham. oamuom uwwzm ham. mam.vm Hma.m~ mmm. na~.m~ vmm.vm com. NHo.H mmm. mOHm Am 92v A.Haflz mszv A.Hafiz wazv Aw 92¢ 8. av E A8 3. 2: 5 a. A: mama now muzuwucwmxw vmlmmma ammo umowum ounuuo: hum a mono mmm mmmum2< may“; ammo .QOHU HOW a m 95400 a lugd 00 FE wumvom: mmm mMSUfivcmaxm .mouo new «0 85m .mono new mudufivcwaxm m>HuMHmz a «nu Qu ommumam m.mocw>0um ammo musufivcwmxm mcu xn wusuflucmmxm ammo Hmmcmsu .musuficcwmxu mnu ou musuflucumxm mumpom: uwm ammo Hugo? umcfi>ao ammo awuoa mnmuom: mmm m x H moHum mnmuoo: Hum 338m 28 mo 03mm @882! Bong? m 55:8 Banana; “98395 8:38 986 no 038 mod 33 £2 QUEBE 6:8 .825 mmouu 8.32 so 838% ammo SS8: Hum @3855 .3d magma APPENDIX E PROJEDI‘ED PERI-WRECASHEQENDITURES INTAIWAN UNDER POLICY ALT'EWATIVE IV, 1975-1984 214 .m.m 0....309 .guaga £000 05300: u0n~ no 00890 Hmwofiém 05 an 6063.3 m EBHOO .- o 55.30 .m.m 0Hnmn. 68H 5 Banana 838: 0o Epic 05 E 083% n 9530 u m 538 .maouo Mona: 05 no 8305qu 05 .43 0.6a: ammo H30... 93.3 x o 9530 .. m 9.300 .m.m 033. .32 5 6886 838: no .695: x v 938 - m 538 .m.o 0.33. 0.50.3338 ammo 05300: umd 00803 Hmwufiaua 0...“an x m 8530 u e 9:300 .mp3 on 2.3 5530 .~.m 0."an ... N £530 .m 5530 4.0 3nt u A 5530 "2039585 mo 000.38 oooé vvmom oaoé o3.o~ Ema m5. 038 moornm mmoé Ham. ovoé 0035003 omm.~ mN~.om mafim m3. mmo.m 236m emm.~ mmm. mmm.~ fidflm m3. oomfi. mwv Hmo. vmv grim Re. 3m. 2%. 0288 no". A 3..” .3 So. H moo. m5; 3: .3 no". .H 3o 4 mmm .H gonSm mam. acorn. om woo. mo mmm.~ m3. mom. mom. 08. men. o3;~ How 98. mom omeJ mem. mmm. oom. 980m H050 new 535m Se. momfi SH moo. SH mmm.m mmv. mom. 0:. ECU mon. 81m moim m3. Rim mafia 35. ohm. own. 3300 u003m mmm. Big 31m «3.. moio mmmoa New. :64 mmm. 00E Am .93 A432 8.7: A432 2.5 6 .9: So So at So 3o 3; A2 So A3 2.3 new 0.5.0.3508 m ..th ammo Gm 0.3500: H00 a 00.5 0mm 0m80>¢ 8365wa £000 .980 new m EBHOU a L03. 0» 0.005295 058x H00 guflfig .88 new «0 gm .mouo new 0.90.6598 0>U£0m a 05 on 0mmu0>¢ 0 0985.8 ammo 0533 05 3 0.3”“? ammo H09030 030.3396 05 on 0.5»; 058x H00 :90 ~38. U03>3 ammo H309 0.4300: H00 N x a 0030 0u300x u0m 838: Ham 00 oflmm Bumsflnc Eugnnm m 538 80932: @8982: 9.38 8.6 mo oflam mod £2 .3 939552 >348 Soc: R80 .89: co 8386me ammo 330% En @3885 4.0 038. .m.m .3nt .musug :98 «Sum: umm wo 00932» Haaucgoum 93 >2 68.3% m 9:300 .. m 5530 .m.m Eng .32 5 8&80 @882 mo ~35: m5 3 c836 h 5.38 u m 538 .958 .83: «5 mo 8388K 93 L8“ Rafi? ammo 38 9th x o 538 .. n 538 .m.m £nt .23 5 fl“.3980 €38: mo 395: x v 538 - m 638 .md Bag .8338 :98 «goo; 6a $896 Qwvfikém 90:: x m 538 u q 938 .onufia £38 .~.m ~33 . N 538 215 .m EH00 .Hd manna I H EH8 «coflmfiuowcH mo 98.38 Hoo.~ wmm~mm Hmm.a omm‘mm vmo.v mna. qao.¢ www.mm mmm.a mmm. oHo.H mmHQMuwww> mnm.m «ma.mm vwv.v oma. OHv.e oom.mm mmm.~ vom. mmm.~ mufiduh oov. mom\m mmv omo. avv nan.m mmm. ova. man. usmmom mav.~ wvm.om o¢m.a mmo. mmm.a mmm.o~ mav.~ moo.a Nov.a wcmondmsm mam. Hma.m Hm woo. mm vmm.m How. mem. mam. Mm? mmm. omn\v mom moo. mom emm.v mmm. mmm. mem. mcmwm Hugflu nan :mmnxom mmv. nmm.o mom moo. mom mmm.m mmv. nvm. nmv. :uou mmm. mmm.m oom.m Hod. mn~.m omm.m who. mmm. mow. eunuom uwwzm 5mm. nua.~a mma.m How. mmo.¢ ovc.ma mmm. mmm. mmm. mafia Am 92V A.Hafiz wezv A.Haflz muzv Am 92. 5 :3 E a: 5 a; 5 E 2. mnma uOu wuzuwucumxm ohnmnma ammo Havana mHmuuuz mmm a QDHU mmmuwad masuflccwmxm .QOHU new a mwfignzfimv a monum>< OD m.mocw>oum ammo mHMuoo: mmm mnsuflvcwmxm .QOHU uOu “5.:5w .aouu u0w mudufldcwaxm m>flumHmm A mnu Cu monumaa m.moca>oum ammo manuflucwaxm an» >9 musufivcmmxm ammo .rxyaxnu .mnsufluchXm 0:» Op muzufiwcmmxm wumuoom mmm sumo Hanna nocw>fia zmmu Hmuoa mHMuoom mmm m x a mOMHQ mumuuom uwm 838: 8m we oflé v39“? Bums“? m 538 @8932: @8938: 9.530 90.6 no 0.3mm mod 22 SH gflgBE >038 SE; 380 Moan: 8 833 ammo 338: non @8883 .~.m Same 216 .m .m 0.239. .m.m 0.33. 63»; 29.6 3300; am.“ he 05326 33559:“ «5 an @0330 m 5.38 I m 5530 4.2.: 5 896.8 @3302 no ~35: m5 3 @896 m 528 I a £38 .mmouo nonma— mnu uo 839609. 93 new 93...: ammo H30» 92.2.. x o EBHOU I N. 5.38 .m.m manna .53 5 .8935 39.500: «0 .385: x v 5:300 I m 93:00 .m.m magma. .33? find 050m: Had ~5qu 3.."qu 92.3 x m 55.30 I v 85.30 .Faa B 2.3 5.38 .mé mance I N 9:300 .a 5530 .~.m wanna I H 5530 "SCHEME mo aonsom .804 mafimw mmmé 31mm vmoé H3. 23;. www.mm Smé mmm. Smé E33 ZN.~ 936m 31m mom. Smfi ocean m-.~ ohm. mh~.~ 33 can . mac 6 wmv o8 . a? mom 6 awn . mmo . we . vacuum 53 Saab m§.~ 8o. ~2.~ Smam ~34 $84 3.4 885mg owm. ~38. moH voo. mm moim 3N. mmm. QR. no? mom. 33$ mom woo. mom 0.8;.“ mom. mmm. mmm. 988 .350 cam 533m mme. 2&6 0mm moo. omw 2&6 «we. 3m. mmv. 58 ooo. wmmda mmv.~ 58. mmeJI. mpg: Go. mmm. mmm. 330m .505 mmm . www.ma 8.13 gm . 18.3 96.3 new. woo .H 58. 8E 3 55 135 may: 73.2 may: Aw .sz 3V 5V At 8“ 8V :1 A3 A8 A: .23 now was»; 572.3 ammo amounum 3300: .48 A Q80 mom magmas 84.5% .0090 Han a m 5530 a L92. 3 985305 ammo mg hum may? .85 Mew mo Em .080 new 85»; 933mm a 93 on mmmuflé 9858.8 ammo my»: 9.» 5 2536598 ammo H0396 my»? 05 B Raga g mmm ammo 38. 0898 :80 138. 850% “an N x A 83m 838: an $38: uwm No one”. n88?“ 83%?“ m 5.38 .3932: c8882: 9:38 85 we 03mm 86 <.an .3 8>Umcumu2 x038 nun—5 macho yonmz :0 83% ammo 8300: mmm nouooflem .m.m Manna. 217 .m.m mance .mudugw 58 .8300: Hum uo 00935 33533 05 3 83>? m 5.300 I m 9530 .m.m wanna .23 5 0095.8 goon no .395: m5 3 @0330 N. 9530 I m 55.30 690.8 uonms m5 no 835m 05 new gag ammo H53 Pang x o 5530 I n 6530 .m.m wanna. Jim manna. .33 5 .vmmmouu @300: no .385: x v E38 I m 5530 .mfldflgm £98 0500: Hum mmmugm ~30qu 92.2” x m 9530 I v £5.30 .36..” Cu 25H 555.8 -.m manna. I N 93400 .m EBHOO .mdm «Hanan. I H EH8 "conga—Eons no 803 oooé Sham ommé 53.: momfi m2. mm~.m mnmfim >34 mmm. mmmé gflmmo> oma.~ 53.9” mmmfi mom. mmmfi 905m Sfiw mum. Sqm mug mmm . 3% m Sm m3 . mom new 6 mum . mmm . mam . gamma mmvé mmmfim ~mm.~ mmo. mmm.~ vvmim $64 304 ~94 magnum mmm. MHNJ m: v8. 2: oom.m 3N. mmm. owm. 02. SN. ~86 SN 58. now 02:.“ cam. omm. mom. 988 H930 v.8 g mov. monK mmm moo. mmm mowQ. eov. mmm. -v. 58 mmm. out: mwo.~ moo. mmm.~ mmm.: m3. mwm. cow. 330m .596 mvm. ommfia momJH wmm. 59...: Hmmfia mem. oooé mmm. 8E Am .9: 12.4: 2.5 A43: may: 3 .3: A3 a: At 3v :3 A3 A3 ”my 3. 2.3 haw $-53 $385.96 83m ammo 888: a g mmm $394 33.8% .080 uOu a m 9530 a 009493 8 when? ammo 858: an 33.6% .980 uOu mo Sm .995 we gag 933.8 a ma... 3 mmmugc m.m0:fi6um find muduflncmmvnw 05 an mud» flung ammo #0390 6.332098 93 B gag .8303 Hum ammo H38. conga 58 H38. 338: 3m m x H «3.8 338: now 838: 8m «0 03mm cough? @3884 m 838 “9395.5 @3982: 8:38 no.6 .u0 033 mod 23 SH 939GB? 3:8 have: macho 8.9.: 8 83% 5.3 838: Um @3833 .im «Ea. 218 .m.m 0..”nt .m.m 0.7.39 .gsugfl 2000 05300: H0Q mo 0mmu0>m 33520.3 05 .3 00.0.3.8 m 9:300 I m 5300 .23 5 8&98 8538: no 35: 05 E 83.3 .. £38 - m 528 .0998 pong 05 mo :oflunfioum 05 new 03...; :08 H33 923 x w 53:00 .. N. 55.30 m 038. .23 5 600098 8.3000: no 0085: x v 53:00 .. m 55.30 .m. .m.o 0309 .03.“? 2000 3500: Hmm 00390 nggm 0.33 x m 83:00 I v 9.5.30 .23 o» 2.3 95.30 .~.o 3an u N 5530 .m E530 .e.m 033. .. H EBHOU EoflmEuOudH mo 80.58 oooé «Sam oom ..H moo.o~ mnhfi 5H . mmm.m omm. om 3m .H mam . own A §fi0o0> ooo.m ooo.? 2.06 o3. ommé 3...? Go; mom. Rudd BE mum . 03:. mmm So. on". Sm 6 men . moo . mom . uafiom owe; vmo.om vmm.~ moo. Sm.~ moiom 3m; mmm. mmvé 0:00am?“ Nvm. 2%; v3 coo. ooa whoa how. mmm. mmm. M09 mmm. 5mm... m3 ooo. om: «on; mvm. . mom. SN. 0500 20 1.0 2.3m 3m . mm"; o: moo. 0mm no.6 8m . o8 . mo... 58 m3. momqa Sim m8. Em... 25.3 mum. com. 08. 338 .808 m3 . mafia omo.~a omm . 2%.: 3.12 ooh. vno. m3. 003 Am .9: A43: on»: A432 99: 3 he 5 8o .5 3o 1...; A3 A2 A3 o3 2.3 Haw Qua—09H o toga . sumo ..Cm 09500: ME a g 000 0080.3 .mouu new a m 8530 « nu0>< on 0.00:? 0.5030096 2000 0.5300: 0303598 .mouo .30 mo 36 .996 H0“ 350% 02.339" Ag ”3 B u0m 080.05. 0.00:..Soum ammo Que; 05 .5 03a? £000 H0890 .833 05 B Eduaanm 0300s mmm ammo any @0339 :08 H.309 038m H00 N x a mono 03000: Ham 058m 8m we 3.0mm @3834 Human... ... 9.38 808.855 03882: 338 8.6 no 035. g 2.3 .3 939G002 5300 00?: 0&8 Boom: :0 0503.009”.— 2000 00.300: Ha 6300.35— .m.m 0119 219 .m.m 0.309 .005qu 5000 00500: 000 Mo 0030.20 33520.2“ 0:0 5 0033.0 m EBHOU I m 9:300 .m.m 038. .33 5 808.8 8.058: 00 08:2 on... E 83>? n E28 .. m 538 08.8 Momma 05 no 8308000 05 Man 0.503.090 £000 ~33 0.83 x 0 55400 I n EBHOU .m .m 0.309 .83 :w 00000.8 0000000: mo 0095: x v 5530 I m 55:00 .m.m 0H3 0.03% 5000 30002 .30 000002... 300530 0.32.. x m 53:00 I v E530 .2793 5.300 .~.m 3209 I N 9530 m 5530 6.0 308. I H 5.38 2532003: no $0.38 mmm. mmm.? 3v ..m www.mm 3K . w mma . Nvm .5 mmo .mm mmm A “mo A com...” 00.33009» Hmo.~ .23.: 0.85 mmm. 26$ .3va madm «32H moo.~ mug mom . 36$ mhm 0.8. do mmm d can . omo A mum . vacuum «34 $5.3 nva Nmo. 81m 8.1mm 30% >84 81H gm om~. ommfi 3..” «8. v: mmmfi omm. mmoé NVN. m0? mmm. mmm; oma moo. mom mmfim SN. m~oé mmN. $800 0050 0:0 among mmm. v.35 emm moo. hum ommd vow. ~84 Han. :Hoo mmm. 30.2 mmo.m mmo. mm~.m 03.: 0%. ovoé ms. 338 000.5 mem. 30.3 mmm.: mmm. 26.3 omadm mam. mmoé mem. 8mm 8 a»: 7.202 2.2V 73?. 8.2V 3 .9: A3 a: AS 3: A3 A3 A2 A3 «.3 2.3 Ba 0033 272.3 2000 000.25 00300: 000 a 0000 09.. 000005 00:03 .0000 .80 a m 5530 a JH0>< on 0.09:: :3 0.3000: H00 0.50% .090 00w we Sm demo new 0.50% 02.339" a 05 B 0mau0>< 0.005250 £000 0.5”“? 0:0 .5 030.3286 2000 3050.0 0.50% 05 00 0.50% 05300: H00 £000 H309 000.33 £000 .308. 0.30002 H00 m x H 00.30 000000: H00 838: 08 00 3.0mm 809.9% 0332 m 538 80852: 808305 .0538 080 0o 005. 080 83 .3 0>U§C0ud< @300 H095 0090 00.3: :0 0.30% £000 05300: H00 «.0000an .o.m 33 220 .m.m 030a. 0.43.6598 £000 0.3000; 00m 00302... 0.005200m 05 9 05.35.98 0.3000: 00m mo QUE .. m 5530 .m.m 033 .82 5 396.8 8.880: wo has: 05 E 0836 h 538 u m 538 .mmouo Hons. 05 no :oUSnoum 05 Mom 0308593 fine 108 982 x o 938 u h 538 .m.m 038. .82 5 .8086 8.0300: .6 H35: x v 5.38 - m 538 .m.m 0.32. 003% 2000 05300: u0a 0mmu0>m ~305qu 0.33 x m 5530 I v 5530 .3183. 5:300 .~.m 3nt I N 9530 .m 5:300 .e.m 030a. .. H 8530 “830.585 no 008qu ooo.H mNH.Hq . nmeé 035m vmm§ 3H. mmm.“. :Qmm mmvé Sm. Sean mag «.34 2%.? 5.1m omm. 051m 38.3. chm; mg. Hmo.~ _ mug Hmm . Sn J De m3 . cam Zbé 9m . mmm . mom . 0:500 wand .30.? ~53. Nmo. mmm.». mmm.? women 304 maven g amN. 0:}. 3H «8. 34 moms o8. mmm. om~. «2. 03. vmné v3 woo. v3. vmmd mam. mem. mmm. $800 0050 ucm 53:00: mom . coo. m chm moo. Sm mmm. m com . mmm. ohm . 500 Km. «.21: ~28 mmo. ~mm.m mem.? emm . mmm. mmm. 330m 0008 Hmm . 2.me 2.5.3 mmm . monfia Swim mmm. 804 ova. 09d Am as .432 EV THE: 0.9: G .9: A8 .8 at 3V A3 A3 Am. 93 Ad 83 HON 0.503.096 Hmnomma £000 03.5 00300: Hum H mono 000 gd .800 new a m 9:38 a L0>< Cu 9% 0.90% 5000 0.3000: 003338 .0000 00w mo cam .08 00w 0.50% 0>U§0m 0:» 3 00m 0mmu0>< 0.005.280 c000 0ndufl0c0axm 05 mp 00:03 £000 “089.0 40.503 05 B 003% 0.8000: 000 ammo #308 @0339 £000 H008. 053002 000 m x H 03.8 00300: 00m 358: Ham 00 0.1.5 089.8,“ vflmsflfi m 538 83.032: @3382: 8580 8.0 Ho ovum 8.0 $3 .>H 9305.002 x0300 H095 maouo 00.9.2 :0 0.3035098 :08 000000: 00¢ 00000.n0um 42m 395. 221 .m.m 00000. 000000—0093 £000 000.000: 000 no 0000020 30052000 05 B 00330 a 55.30 I m 50:00 .m.m 030.0. .mmm0 :0 0000000 0000000: 00 0085: 05 .3 0000.30 s. 85000 I m 85000 .00000 00?: 05 00 0000090000 05 000 00400000900 2000 00000 mama x 0 95000 I N. 55000 .m.m 0.308 .Nmma 0... 00080 $000002 00 0035: x v 55000 I m 55000 .m.m 0000.0. 0000000090 0000 000000: 000 00000.;v 000000600 0.33 x m 55000 I v 55000 .3 00 .33 £5000 .md 030.0. I N 55000 .m 55000 Chm 0000.0. I 0 95000 "000.005.0005 00 000008 80.0 03.00 mavé 02.8%.. 085 03 . NNH . m mmm.mm muv .0 emm . >3 .0 003000m0> 50.0 0.3.3. m3 . .3 mmm . m: . 00 mmm .3 0mm .0 0mm . 03.0 00.300 mmm . 05$ mmm 00o . 30 Nov .m 5mm . com. 0mm . 020000 0.3.0 $0.20 mmm.». Sc. mmm.». www.mq hwmé 0.8.0 mem..“ 00000096 03 . mmmK SH 08 . m: mead wwm . mmm. mmm . 008 02... emm...“ SH woo. 03 ~85 $0. mmm. 03. 0:000 0050 0:0 90000.00“ 0mm . ~85 Hmv moo. 0N0 mafia mem . Sm. mom . c000 Nmm. 55.3 0%;” who. mmofi «2...: Sn. mum. Rm. 00500 000.5 0mm. 2.0.3 53.5 Km. 02.: 2.9mm 0mm. 30% 0mm. 008 3 0.20 A2132 may: A230! 99: 8 .020 80 a: E .8 $0 2: E E a SE 000 000000599 NmIHmmH £05 08000 003000 000 0 0000 00000.2 00300596. .0000 000 a m 95000 0 000003. 00 0.00.0.9 3000 000000: 000 0050000096 .0000 000 00 :50. .0000 000 000000000000 0>3000¢ .0000 05 00 0000020 0.0050600 5000 00000000006 05 >0 0050000005 2000 0000050 0030000900 05 3 00300590 00500: 000 £000 038. 000030 2.0.00 038. 00008: 000 m x 0 8000 000000: 000 0038: 090 0o oflmm 089.02 089.000 m 9508 089002: 038.002: 90508 300 00 oflmm 090 $3 50 030000002 .0300 0.00:: 00000 00.90: :0 00500000900 £000 000000: 000 00000800 .md 0.30.0. .0... 033. .8300:on 5.8 0088.. 000 no 0020...... 0280.600 B E 83.50 m 5.38 I 0 5508 .m.m 033. .82 5 000080 «0038.. me 035.. 05 E 80900 n 538 I m 5508 608... .802. 05 00 8088.0 90 08 838898 :08 038 «.82 x o 538 I 0 £38 .m.m 038. .82 5 .8086 $088.. no 035.. x v 5508 I ... 5.38 8.0 00000. 0000000098 2000 0000002 000 00000>0 000000.600 0.0000 x 0 55000 I 0. 55000 .3482 538 .~.m 032. I N 5508 .m 9.38 5.0 038. I 0 838 2.302085 No 88:8. 222 ~oo.0 30.3 «.00 .0 0.00 .00. 30 . o0 0.00 . 00m .o0 2.0.00. ham .0 «.00. 00v .0 000000000> 000.0 000.00 0.00.3 mem. 000.00 m00.0m 000.0 00.0. 0.3.0 00.300 MNM . $o.o0 000 00o. e00 v0o.o0 0mm . oom. 0mm . 000000 o~m0 000.: 0o~.v o0o. 0m~.v 005.2. 30.0 v0o.0 000.0 000000000 03. «00.0 o0~ coo. «.00 000.0. 0mm. oom. 00m. 00? m0N. 2.0.0 o0m voo. 0.00 30.0 ~00. mmm. 0oN. 0:000 00:00 0:0 0000.60 0mm . 0360 03 moo. o: 0.360 0mm . 000 . omm . 0000 DE. 08.5 080 08. 80.8 82.00 8.... mg. mom. 8300 000.0 . mm0. 03.0w 000.00 mm. 000.00 30.0.0 $0. 080 om0. 0000 Am .020 0.0002 0.020 0.0002 0.020 8 .020 30 A00 :0 30 Am: 2; AS Am. A00 03 000 00050000050 000000 L000 000000 00.0000: 000 0000 000000200 0000000000000 00000 000 0 0 55000 0 0000020 8 0.0009000 £000 000000: 00 0000000000000 .0000 000 mo :50 .0000 000 000000.005 0300000 05 00 000094 0.0052000 £000 00000000080 05 .3 003 000000000 2000 000G000 000000000050 05 00 0000000000000 000000: 000 2000 0000? 0000.200 2000 00009 000000: 000 N x 0 00000 00300: 000 00300: 000 00 00.000 0300.02 0000:.n2 m $5000 000008005 00000500: 055000 0000 00 00000 800 0000 .../H 9000000004 30000 000:: 00000 00.90: :0 00000000900 5000 000000: 000 000000.300 0.00 0000.0. 223 .m.m magma. 65....vawa $30 $38: mmm uo mmmuwg. Hugsum 2.... an 8336 m 5530 n m 6530 .3... 23a .33 5 3&98 85302 no 395: «5 E @836 s 5.38 - m 538 .380 ”8.92 05 mo 83m 93 new 833.30 ammo H38 933 x m 5.300 .. h 8530 .m.m manna. .33 5 .vwamouo meadow: mo Hons: x v 5530 I m 55.30 .m.m magma. 6556593 ammo .3303 uwm womugm 335.56%“ Pvmma x m 5530 .. v 8530 .33 3 mama 55.30 .N.m 328. u N 55.30 .a 5530 .md wanna. .. H «548 "cognac—Oman no g #84 o~a.mm mom .H mmm.: 1.6.: m3 . 53.3 mg. 5 PM A mmm. «mm A 8.333 mwmé 28.3 Sofia mmN. $13 9on 054. mum. H34 32 won . oms .3 m2. «3 . m2. can .3 3m . Sm. mwm . 3.50m Smé 3me $5; omo. mph... 30.3 mmmé H34 ommA 059% mmN . So. 3 mmm v8 . own mmN . m SN . 8m . 2N . m2. mmm. o~m§ mm~ v8. mam oucK mom. vmm. 3N. Elan go 98 g own . mom :3 mmm moo. vnm «an :3 m~n . «mm. and . g mmm. Shin mme 3.0. mmm; #313 H3. H3. 5m. 330m umoa mmm . 26.3 0.8.3 mom . mno.- 399.. «mm . ~84 mmm. wow. 3 .9: “AS: 2.5 .23.“: 2.2. A» 95 A3 .8 E .8 3. E 5 .8 a 33 now given v L33 55 “CE mung Man a g mmm numb—v.2 and»? .930 .43 a m 33:00 a L94 on 98559.8 ammo 8.300: awn Maugham douu Ham mo gm .aouu Mom 3335.98 gflmamm a «5 B 009.94 9303 £98 gugg m5 5 unsung 5.8 $9.90 my»? 05 9 mafia: vague: Hum ammo 1.308 “.0339 sumo H30? 838: Hmm m x a mafia 3300: man 8308 “an we ofimm Bumsflnc 39.8.“? m 5.38 @3838: “.8933: 9:38 mod mo 032 8.0 coma .PH map—«gag 530m “06:: ago no.9: 8 mnsufiognm :95 3500: awn guinea .3.m flag