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III I :II" II'IIIIIII IIII I IIIIII IIIIIMh .'II"II ‘IIIJII’ IIIZIILIIIIIII ' 'II' Date :v’wn‘v IJRQAEY 12.632233!) $3332 University This is to certify that the thesis entitled A Proposed Management Model for Brazil's Tapajos National Forest presented by Jorge Paladino Correa de Lima has been accepted towards fulfillment of the requirements for Ph .D. degree in Forestry [Le/Z5, 19- 6%,444 r professor July 21, 1981 0-7639 OVERDUE FINES: 25¢ per day per ite- RETURMN LXBRARY MTERIALS: __________.___ -. - Place in book return to remove «mm 1 charge from circulation records A PROPOSED MANAGEMENT MODEL FOR BRAZIL'S TAPAJOS NATIONAL FOREST BY Jorge Paladino Corréa de Lima A DISSERTATION Submitted to Michigan State University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY Department of Forestry 1981 Osaklntlnv ABSTRACT A PROPOSED MANAGEMENT MODEL FOR BRAZIL'S TAPAJOS NATIONAL FOREST BY Jorge Paladino Corréa de Lima Brazil's Amazon region contains the largest tropical forest resource in the world. To change the present pattern of exploiting this resource without planning for its conti- nuous production, the Brazilian government established its first national forest, the 531,200 hectare Tapajos National Forest near Santarem in the state of Para, to serve as a pilot project for multiple use and sustained yield. This study presents the development and proposed application .of a simulated forest management model for that forest. The computer - simulated management model is called TAPAFOR, and consists of one main program and twelve subrou- tines. The various subroutines simulate management activi- ties and stand growth, and generate various outputs. Major components of the simulation model include harvesting and silvicultural operations, stand growth predictions, and economic considerations. Short-term and long-term goals for managing t evaluating included v cycle leng and close in develop Since Forest are forestry 1 Forest by in develo; results, t total volu residUal assumed tc and diffel trees larg Based Simulating MAPOR, t lotions: 1. Jorge Paladino Corréa de Lima managing the Tapajos National Forest formed the bases for evaluating twenty treatment combinations. 'The treatments included various combinations of cutting intensity, cutting cycle length, natural regeneration, and enrichment, line, and close plantations. The general form of management used in developing TAPAFOR has been the uneven-aged approach. Since specific inventory data for the Tapajos National Forest are as yet not available, information from tropical forestry literature, and the results of observations in the Forest by the author, were used for much of the input data in developing TAPAFOR. By optimizing the simulation model results, three variables were maximized: present net worth, total volume removed over the 30-year planning period, and residual stand value. The Tapajos National Forest was assumed to be composed of four stands with differing areas and differences in the number, volume, and basal area of trees larger than 45 cm in DBH, and total basal area. Based on all considerations taken into account in simulating the management of the Tapajos National Forest by TAPAFOR, the results can be grouped into two major recommen- dations: 1. For the long term, apply clearcutting in small patches, with close plantation. to follow; This will maximize timber output from the forest. A second ranking alternative would be to use natural regeneration. Resul reasonable knowledge been any 1 Yield mana data. Thus management the Tapajc tive IDEth. mils, tra “in conve losses ' an silViCUltu: Jorge Paladino Corréa de Lima 2. For the short term, apply a 70 percent intensity cutting of commercial trees in two or three harvests over the 30-year period in some stands, and a 100 percent intensity cutting of commercial trees with an enrichment planting in other stands. Results from the TAPAFOR simulation model appear to be reasonable, and consistent with currently avaliable knowledge in tropical forestry literature. There have not been any forest areas in the Amazon region under sustained yield management in the past on which to draw for response data. Thus, the major limitation of TAPAFOR as a forest management planning tool is the lack of data specific to the Tapajos National Forest. Research results on alterna- tive methods of transporting timber from the forest to mills, transport cost, utilization of lesser known species, will conversion processes, species' growth rates, mortality losses, and the effectiveness of natural regeneration as a silvicultural technique are urgently needed. In spite of this limitation, results of using the TAPAFOR simulation model show that immediate implementation of planned forest management operations in the Tapajos National Forest appear to be silviculturally and economi- cally feasible, and provide initial guidelines for rational and efficient use of the resource. As more specific data become available, they can be used to improve the effective- ness of TAPAFOR as a planning model, not only for the tapaios W the Amazon Jorge Paladino Corréa de Lima Tapajos National Forest, but also for other forest areas in the Amazon basin. Dedi my wi Dedicated to my parents, Mauro and Carmella; my wife, Helena; and my sons, Ronny and Dmitry. ii I offer in to Dr. Victor guidance comn patience, and was once only To Dr. E support in th on the wide C(imputer-sirnu James for his StUdl’ as a c ledgelnent; is ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I offer my warmest appreciation and profound gratitude to Dr. Victor J. Rudolph, my major professor, research and guidance committee chairman. His steady encouragement, patience, and advice over the years helped me attain what was once only a distant dream. To Dr. Erik D. Goodman special thanks are due for his support in the development of this study, for his service on the guidance committee,' and for introducing me to computer-simulation thought. Sincere thanks to Dr. Lee M. James for his suggestions on the. economic aspects of this study as a committee member. To Dr. Carl W. Ramn, acknow— ledgement is due for his statistical advice as a committee member. Appreciation is also extended to Dr. Wayne L. Myers for his initial support at Michigan State University. I am grateful to the Forestry Department of Michigan State University for the assistance received from many people during my graduate program. Thanks are also express- ed to the staff of the Computer Laboratory of Michigan State University for their valuable cooperation. The Financial Assistance of Instituto Brasileiro de iii oesenvolvimentc Pesquisa MICE Desenvolvimenti ly acknowledge! I am inde (RADAMBRASIL), lnazonia (SUI (HE) and Fun culture, who c Special throughout t! Brasileiro de Brasileira 1 providing me To my pa gratitude is sacrifiCes special dEbt and support Desenvolvimento Florestal (IBDF), Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuaria. (EMBRAPAJ and. Conselho ‘Nacional, de Desenvolvimento Cientifico e Tecnologico (CNPq) is grateful- ly acknowledged. I am indebted to IBDF, EMBRAPA, Project Radar Amazonas (RADAMBRASIL), Superintendéncia do Desenvolvimento da Amazonia (SUDAM), Instituto of International Education (IIE) and Purdue University International Programs in Agri- culture, who contributed to the completion of this study. Special thanks are due to the Brazilian government throughout the Ministry of Agriculture - MA, Instituto Brasileiro de Desenvolvimento Florestal - IBDF, and Empresa Brasileira De Pesquisa Agropecuaria. - EMBRAPA, for providing me this opportunity. ‘ To my parents, Mauro and Carmella, my appreciation and gratitude is expressed for their constant encouragement and sacrifices over the years. To my wife, Helena, a ‘very special debt of gratitute is owned for her confidence, love and support that helped me to pursue this venture to comple- tion. To my sons, Ronny and Dmitry, my thanks for being bundles of joy and a source of inspiration throughout this long and arduous task. Again, to Dr. Victor J. Rudolph a constant source of experienced advice, encouragement and understanding -- THANKS. iv LIST OF TABLES LIST 0? FIGURE CHAPTER I INTRODUCT Staten Study The S1 Study II MANAGEME. A LITE‘ IMPLIc Land thic Man a9 The I Mar Pores Tir Util; L01 Iv THE MAN. Subs. araicn 53 LIST OF LIST OF CHAPTER TABLE OF CONTENTS TABIES O I O O O O O O I O O O FIGURES O O O O O O O O O O O I INTRODUCTION 0 O O O O I O O O 0 II MANAGEMENT IN BRAZIL'S AMAZON A LITERATURE REVIEW . . . . . . Statement of the Problem Study Objectives . . . . The Study Area . . . . . Study Methods . . . . . III THE TAPAJOS NATIONAL FOREST AND IMPLICATIONS FOR ITS MANAGEMENT Land and Vegetation Types . . National Forest Multiple Use . Management Systems . . . . . The Philosophy of Uneven-Aged Management . . . . . . . . . Forest Management Planning for Timber Production . . . . . Utilization Impacts and Long-Term Productivity . . . IV THE MANAGEMENT MODEL DESIGN . . . Subsystem Definition . . . . . Harvesting . . Silviculture . Growth . . . . Economics . . . FOREST: Page viii ix UIU'luhN |-‘ 15 15 17 19 20 22 24 28 29 29 35 38 The Mod Harv Silv Grow Econ Mathema the a V TAPAFOR DC The Sys Input 1 Sub] Sub: Sub: Output Sub Sub Harves Sub Econon Sui Growu Sul Sui Sui Silvi Page The Model Design Approach . . . . . . . 42 Harvesting . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43 SilViculture O O O O O O O O O O O O 49 Growth 0 O O O O O O O O O O O O O O 53 Economics 0 O O O O O O O O O O O O I 60 Mathematical Components of the Medal . O O O O O O I O O O O I O 62 V TAPAFOR DOCUMENTATION . . . . . . . . . . . 66 The System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66 Input Phase 0 O I I O O O 0 O O O O O O 78 Subroutine SCREEN . . . . . . . . . . 78 SUbroutine COVER 0 O O O O O O O O O 80 Subroutine TABLIE . .'. . . . . . . . 83 Output Phase . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84 Subroutine OUTPUT l . . . . . . . . . 84 Subroutine OUTPUT 2 . . . . . . . . . 84 Harvesting Subsystem . . . . . . . . . . 86 Subroutine REMOVE . . . . . . . . . . 86 Economic Subsystem . . . . . . . . . . 88 Subroutine NETVAL . . . . . . . . . . 90 Growth Subsystem . . . . . . . . . . . 90 Subroutines GROWTH l and GROWTH 2 . . 92 Subroutine LOSS . . . . . . . . . . 94 subroutine DELICT O O O O O O O O O O 94 Silvicultural Subsystem . . . . . . . . 97 Subroutine PRESCR . . . . . . . . . . 98 Operation Requirements . . . . . . . . . 100 Validation of TAPAFOR . . . . . . . . . 101 vi VI MODEL EV. Ident; Limits TAPAF! An Ap] A Pro; Pre Rer Res VII SUMMARY I LITERATURE CI'l llPENDICES . . LTaPajos l B. Braziliar Artific o. Line-plan B. TAPAFOR c F. Source Lj . Source Li 3' 3931: Star Tapajos 1' TAPIlFOR c TITA VI VII mDEL EVALUATION . O O O O O O O C O 0 Identifying Research Needs Limitation of TAPAFOR . . TAPAFOR in Forest Planning An Application of TAPAFOR A Proposed Plan . . . . . Present Net Worth Maximization . Removed Volume Maximization . . . Residual Stand Value Maximization SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS . . . . . . LITERATURE CITED 0 O O O O O O O O O O O O O APPENDICES O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O P H momma 0m VITA Tapajos National Forest Creation Decree Brazilian Forestry Code . . . . . . . . Tree Species with Potential for Artificial Regeneration . . . Line-Planting . . . . . . . . . TAPAFOR User's Manual . . . . . Source Listing for TAPAFOR . . Source Listing for OPTIMUM . . Best Stand Area Distribution for Tapajos National Forest . . TAPAFOR Output Sample . . . . (1' O O D... O O O O (D vii Page 103 103 104 106 108 118 120 126 128 135 148 156 156 159 178 180 184 187 207 210 213 217 Table l.Costs of Tapajo: L.Mmges o for ea stand 4.1uPAFOR 5.Resu1t3 combin Tapajo 30‘yea 6~Results combin Tapajo 30‘Yea -RESults Combin Tapdjo 30~yea °RQSults Cmein Tapajo 30‘YEa LIST OF TABLES Table 1. Costs of logging operations in the Tapajos National Forest . . . . . . . . 2. Ranges of damage to the residual stand for each DBH class . . . . . - . . . . 3. Average number of years and stage for stand growth by DBH class and treatment 4. TAPAFOR and its subroutines . . . . . . . 5. Results of applying 20 treatment combinations to Stand 1 in the Tapajos National Forest over a 30-year period, per hectare basis . . . 6. Results of applying 20 treatment combinations to Stand 2 in the Tapajos National Forest over a 30-year period, per hectare basis . . . 7. Results of applying 20 treatment combinations to Stand 3 in the Tapajos National Forest over a 30-year period, per hectare basis . . . 8. Results of applying 20 treatment combinations to Stand 4 in the Tapajos National Forest over a 30-year period, per hectare basis . . . viii Page 33 50 56 69 114 115 116 117 home 1. Tu Tapajos 2. The legend 3. l. 5. - Gross ' GIOSS 1 Gross logic Detailed lo NImlber of t hectare , 'Kuuorder d With stor a The Brlang . The basic C o DQtai led pr 1091C SCREEN . oSic COVER ~ LIST OF FIGURES Figure Page 1. The Tapajos National Forest . . . . . . . . . . 6 2. The legend for the flowcharts . . . . . . . . . 40 3. Gross logical flowchart for TAPAFOR . . . . . . 41 4. Detailed logical flowchart for TAPAFOR . . . . 44 5. Number of trees to be planted per hectare . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52 6. Kth order distributed delay process with storage losses for a DBH class . . . . . 54 77. The Erlang family of density functions . . . . 57 8. The basic concept of TAPAFOR . . . . . . . . . 68 9a. Detailed program flowchart for TAPAFOR . . . . 73 10.. Gross logical flowchart for subroutine . SCREEN . C O C O C C C . . C C O C C C O O C 8 l 11.. Gross logical flowchart for subroutine COVER - C O C C C O C O O C C O C C C O C C O 8 2 12. Gross logical flowchart for subroutine OUTPUT 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85 13. Gross logical flowchart for subroutine OUTPUT 2 O O O O . O O O O O O O O O O O O 0 0 8 7 14. Gross logical flowchart for subroutine REMOVE O O O O I O O I 0 O O O O O O O O O O 8 9 ix Figure 15. Gross logi NETVAL . 16. Gross logi GROWTH l 17. Gross logi LOSS . . ll. Gross logi DELICT . l9. Gross logi PRESCR . Figure Page 15. Gross logical flowchart for subroutine NETVAL . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91 16. Gross logical flowchart for subroutines GRoer 1 and GROWH 2 O O O O O O O O O O O O 9 3 l7. Gross logical flowchart for subroutine IIOSS O O 0 O O O O O O O O I O O O O O O O O O 95 18. Gross logical flowchart for subroutine DELICT O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O 96 19. Gross logical flowchart for subroutine PRESCR . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99 Simulatio. of real system used for the conditions, ar “1d procedures A model i It is usually Process that i‘ COInputez‘ becaUSe 0f CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION Simulation 4- defined as a .method for solving problems of real systems by using models (Lucas et at., 1978) -— is used for the design of a system in terms of certain conditions, and the analysis of specific rules, policies and procedures. A model is simply a substitute expression for reality. It is usually simpler than the real world objective or process that it represents (Kessel 1979). Computer simulation has been used in forestry largely because of its inherent characteristics as a complete System and its endogenous and exogenous correlated varia- bles. According to Churchman (1979), even though a precise- moclel cannot be constructed, the 'mode of thinking' that is inherent in programming models can be utilized in a very rich way, and forestry systems offer a variety of options for such application. Forest management simulation obtains more versatility when presented in a gaming model format. A computer Simulation-gaming model, defined by Nor (1977) is a game played with the model by inserting decisions as inputs and watching effects or consequences of the decisions in the outputs. Th. order to 5“ decision and Clearly simulation 11 attached to the user mus Amazoni. A look at between the (1966) point» the huntid tr '1“) areas 0: Forest rapidly Wit) Utilization , timber in ti 2 outputs. This is the method utilized in this study, in order to stimulate interest and encourage innovation in decision and strategy formulation. Clearly, the accuracy of the results obtained from any simulation model depends on the constraints and complexity attached to it. When using the model in decision-making, the user must be aware of these factors. Statement of the Problem Amazonia exhibits the world's largest tropical forest. A look .at its forested area shows a striking disparity between the resource and its commercial development. Lamb (1966) pointed out that in the world and more apparently in the humid tropics, a lag in economic growth is correlated with areas of extensive forest resources. Forest exploitation in the Amazon region is expanding rapidly without accompanying regional growth and forest utilization. Kerr (1980) claims that the depletion of timber in the region has increased 170 percent in the past three years, and if this trend continues, about 60 percent 0f the Amazon forest will be cleared illegally by the year 2000. Neto (1979) recognizes that the Amazon's natural resources, which could generate investments in capital, technology and research, are at the present largely un- known. A study recently conducted by Cherfas (1980) forecast that the Brazilian population will double in the next 25 years. and co. to increased 1 ed to an incr grate the ecc long-term pro president of (180?), state: viable forest ed for the National Fores a1 Forest, 1< luazon basin, testing manag determine th. feasibility . An under huts and int the full ram through Proper l ire is . to lmprCWe why an grown in sermons c . 3 years, and consequently its natural forest will be subject to increased utilization. All these factors have contribut- ed to an increase in Brazilian government efforts to inte- grate the economic growth of the Amazon region with the long-term productivity of its forests. Reis (1980), the president of the Brazilian Forestry Development Institute (IBDF), states that clearly, a rational forest policy and ‘viable forest management alternatives need to be establish- ed for the Amazon region. He reports that the Tapajos National Forest, Brazil's first and, thus far, only Nation- al Forest, located near Santarem (State of Para) in the Amazon basin, will be the pilot project area used for testing management techniques on an industrial scale to determine their -ecological impacts and socio-economic feasibility. An understanding of the complex ecological require- ments and interrelationships of the forest, as well as of the full range of economic values, will be realized only through proper management. One of the goals in managing the Amazon forest is to produce the maximum yield per unit area, consistent with product quality. A second objective is to improve the form of certain native and exotic species ‘When grown in plantations. It is important that these consi- derations be included in management proposals which may consist of many options for the future. This stu process of pi havesting, in on sustained is to portra economic val forest envir hazon fores those who pa 33d Will (3. information making, The $81 Process , ar 0b jectins ' magement 4 Study Objectives This study has two objectives. The first is to trace a process of predicting growth and yield of the forest after havesting, in order to maintain the Tapajos National Forest on sustained yield. More specifically, the simulation model is to portray the behavior of growth and yield with its economic value at different stages in a special kind of forest environment so as to add to the knowledge of the Amazon forest's proper management and use. This will aid those who participate in ongoing forest research processes, and will contribute significantly to forest management information to be utilized in forest planning and decision- making. The second objective is to identify elements of that process, and analyze its development into a model for planned change in that process. In accomplishing these objectives, this study may lead to proposed changes in management strategies for the Amazon forest, which can be adopted, rejected or studied further in the future. It is hoped that the simulation model developed in this study will provide guidelines for forest management planning with various alternatives. The problems which were encountered in this study can be useful, not only in the development of forest management plans at this time, but also in revising those plans as more information becomes available. Other studies of biological processes not necessarily forestry studies, may benefit from the design and the Chan development 6 The Tap in the Amaz< situated in River and th ters to the area is esti are general]. tion of suri The average 2300 mm Wit between July lY Febuary 1 Pattern (FA 26° C and The majorit: T0 att. work Was unc Ids mar Drg 5 and the change process used in this study, in their model development efforts. The Study Area The Tapajos National Forest, the only National Forest in the Amazon Basin, was selected for this study. It is situated in the state of Para, Brazil, between the Tapajos River and the Santarem-Cuiaba Road. It lies some 50 kilome- ters in: the south of Santarem, the nearest city. The total area is estimated at 531,200 hectares (Fig. 1). The soils are generally deep and well drained, with little accumula- tion of surface organic matter, and are of low fertility. The average annual precipitation lies between 2100 mm and 2300 mm with rainfall each month. The drier season falls between July and November and the wettest month is general- ly Febuary but there are annual variations to this general pattern (FAO / IBDF, 1980). Mean annual temperature is 26° C and mean annual relative humidity is 85 percent. The majority of the area appears to be relatively flat, only occasionally broken by drainage systems. Study Methods To attain the objectives of this study, the following work was undertaken: 1. Identification of the data required for forest management planning and financial appraisal of proposed plans. s s'oo' [.0 II .I “he “on” ”on... 0.. oooooouoooo O o Pros fled Icl mu "1.000.000 ' Figure l. The Tapajos National Forest 2. C0111 Bras repo: SUDA and stud; Univ« 3. Elabc desiq auth« 4. Asse: sens. 5' EVaL mana¢ 6' Pres: This re mmputer mode ~‘. “~~~~‘ “ IBDF ‘ IDSt‘ (Bra EMRAPA E; U SUDAM ‘ Supt (Sui Ama: 7 2. Collection of available data and information in Brazil from administrative sources and government reports. These were obtained from IBDF, EMBRAPA, SUDAM and the RADAMBRASIL1 project during June and July, 1980. Other material pertinent to the study area was obtained from the Michigan State University Library. 3. Elaboration of biometric functions and model design based on local conditions observed by the author during the data collection period. 4. Assessment of the simulation model components by sensitivity analysis. 5. Evalution of the model's contribution to forest management planning. 6. Presentation of results and conclusions. This report is a description and analysis of a computer model which simulates forest management on the IBDF - Instituto Brasileiro de Desenvolvimento Florestal (Brazilian Institute for Forestry Development) EMBRAPA - Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecudria (Brazilian Agricultural Research Company) SUDAM - Superintendéncia do Desenvolvimento da AmazOnia (Superintendency for the Development of the Amazon) RADAMBRASIL - Radar Amazonas (Radar Survey Agency, Ministry of Mines and Energy) Tapajos Nationa blems and proce of an adequate best informatir growth and its treatments . 8 Tapajos National Forest in Brazil. It also includes pro- blems and procedures to be aware of in the implementation of an adequate forest management plan in the field. The best information available is used to describe forest growth and its interactions with logging and prescribed treatments. MAN} The Amaze} of the future‘ history, and r mamaelement in 1 out no formal limited availat Technical a“thorn , CHAPTER II MANAGEMENT IN BRAZIL'S AMAZON FOREST: A LITERATURE REVIEW The Amazon forest is unquestionably the epithet 'land of the future' that was fastened on Brazil early in its history, and remains to taunt its foresty experts. Forest management in the Amazon has been studied in a general way, but no formal studies have been reported. A review of the limited available literature is presented. Technical and silvicultural characteristics of some species have received a great deal of attention from many authors. Pitt (1969) has addressed methodoloy and primary results for natural regeneration of some species in Para, as well as chemical soil analysis and climatic conditions. Loureiro, et a1. (1968) in their two volumes cataloguing Amazon woods, have contributed to the general' utilization Of many native species. Volpato (1972) outlined the silvi- cultural treatment of Andiroba (Carapa Guianensis Aubl.'). In a series of field experiments for FAO in the Amazon carried out between 1956 and 1961, SUDAM (1973) has publish- ed economic data and volume tables for some species in that region. Methodology for a detailed study is suggested. Dubois (1967, 1971, 1973, 1979, 1980) has presented the richest contr and guideline: has pointed 0 :1 way. Sloot durability ar has publisher characteristi Researcl species were Congress at was noted (:1 due to the related to , Reis ( 5” ration. 1977, 1978 erolusivelS incentivEs tries, as logging am Loggi. ECOnOmic upland for operations eXPIQIEG floodeci E‘chdure 10 richest contribution to understanding Amazon silviculture and guidelines for its application in forest management. He has pointed out appropriate systems to be used in a ration- al way. Slooten (1976) analyzed sixteen species as to their durability and physical-mechanical properties. SUDAM (1979) has published silvicultural, technological and durability characteristics of thirty-two species from the Amazon. Research, policy and the potential use of exotic species were covered in a report presented to the Brazilian Congress at the National Amazon Seminar (IBDF, 1975). It was noted that the use of exotic species in the region was due to the difficulty of obtaining native seeds, and not related to quality or growth performance of the exotics. Reis (1978) pointed out technical-political guidelines for rational utilization of the forest. Pandolfo (1973, 1977, 1978) has suggested the establishment of forests exclusively for timber production in the Amazon Basin, incentives for the vertical integration of forest indus- tries, as well as the introduction of new technology for logging and other innovative techniques. Logging and harvesting systems and their techno- economic viability were studied by PRODEPEF (1978) in the uPland forest basin. The procedures and costs for various Operations were presented. Filho, et a1. (1979) have explored similar aspects in forests located on periodically ' flooded ground (varzea forest). They have analyzed basic procedures for mechanical forest exploitation. Guides for logging road (1980). Tamer tivity. He PC soil-climatic- naintenance c superficially clear-cutting quickly in th will be almos of fertilizer Mercado methods and p Wetterbe ties for the Point out the been Created Pitcher 11 logging road construction were deScribed by Filho, et a1. (1980). Tamer (1971) has cited findings on soil produc- tivity. He points out that the forest is the product of a soil-climatic-plant equilibrium, characterized by the maintenance of a minimum level of nutrients in the soil superficially in a cycle of growth and decomposition. After clear-cutting, he noted, the organic :material decomposes quickly in that climate, and a short-term agricultural crop will be almost impossible to produce without adequate use of fertilizers. Mercado (1980) has described timber transportation methods and presented production and market data. Wetterberg, et a1. (1978) have elaborated on priori— ties for the preservation of the Amazon environment. They point out that only one area, the Amazon National Park, has been created by law in the Brazilian Amazon. Pitcher (1976) suggested a tree improvement program fix: the region and methods for its establishment. In an informative document by the Brazilian government submitted to the Technical. Conference on Tropical Moist Forests, possible management systems applied to the tropical moist forests and its implications, based on the work of Dubois, were reviewed (PRODEPEF, 1975). Analyses were made of the following problem areas: administration, forest operations, silviculture, markets, industries and environment. Based on the distribution of the residual forest after mechanical exploitation in Curua-Una (state of Para), Jankaus regeneration f defined shade forest can be Lanly (l sampling proce on the work of IBDF (1980) a three major t) for pre-invest tions formulat T0 evalu forest for a forest, a Se Executed by F some initial He su99estea , and greater t VidEd guideli sumarisz lo< ed a road COr meter, based is Cline with complete soil 5! ' owth rates I needed for 12 Para), Jankauski (1978) has developed methods to improve regeneration by the elimination of undesired species, and defined shade requirements of desired species. He claims a forest can be "educated” for growth. Lanly (1978) has outlined volume equations and sampling procedures for a pre-investment inventory. Based on the work of A. Nyyssonen, a forest inventory consultant, IBDF (1980) assessed additional information needs for the three major types of inventories: 1) for reconnaissance, 2) for pre-investment, 3) for management. A set of recommenda- tions formulate priorities for the inventory program. To evaluate the condition of the Tapajos National Forest for a pilot project in the management of the Amazon forest, a series of field studies have recently been executed by FAO consultants. Wadsworth (1978) has proposed some initial steps before starting the harvesting process. He suggested strategies for obtaining natural regeneration, and greater use of native species. Letourneau (1978) pro- vided guidelines for logging and log transportation. He summarized logging costs as did Kluwer (1978), and suggest- ed a road construction cost equal to one dollar per cubic meter, based on an annual harvest of 150,000 cubic meters. Olin (1978) concluded that soil and site quality tend to decline with increasing slope, but he added that more complete soil studies in relation to forest cover types, growth rates, stand volumes, and other forest features are needed for forestry planning. As an alternative for forestry and TapajOS, SP9 private indu supervised by rent (IBDF). the initial 1 the earliest mills are b. import and e ted improveme logs and In Planing mill: on the fore Cited the po established 1 Tent guides the Possibil cial and man mamaservant l3 forestry and forest industry development programs in the Tapajos, Speidel (1978) suggested forest exploitationiby private industrial enterprises with concession contracts supervised by the Brazilian Institute for Forestry Develop— ment (IBDF). Webb (1978) recommended the export of logs in the initial phase of exploitation, to create a cash flow at the earliest opportunity, while the sawmills or plywood mills are being constructed. Lemaingnen (1978) reported import and export data for tropical hardwoods, and sugges- ted improvements in the cutting, marketing, and grading of logs and lumber. General descriptions of sawmills and planing mills were made by Wahl (1978). Regarding effects on the forest after management, Dourojeanni (1978) has cited the possibility that undesired forest speciesymay be established by natural regeneration. In addressing manage- ment guides for the region, Fraser (1978) has recognized the possibility that institutional, organizational, finan- cial and managerial difficulties may prevent the successful management of the Amazon forest, but, he added, there appear to be no technical nor ecological solutions for these difficulties. In addition to the ecological impli- cation of exploitation, Poore (1978) pointed out the desirability of establishing a biosphere reserve in the Amazon region. All of the above reports on the Amazon basin have con- tributed to basic information, but the economic viability of forest utilization on an industrially large scale was not addressed. shown the P05: forest fee to financing the basis. Other li forest region fueiros (1978) procedure for different func diameter distr best results w tial tYpe I f‘lnction from «'Y for “Conn square Sampl e Fcrest: n mseted in (1976) . Based 14 not addressed. An analysis by Beattie, et al. (1979) has shown the possibility of economic exploitation based on a forest fee to be charged by IBDF, with the objective of financing the management of the forest on a sustained yield basis. Other literature related to the Tapajos National Forest region .has offered some background for this study. Queiros (1978) defined an economically efficient sampling procedure for the region. Barros (1980) tested seven different functions and three DBH classes to determine the diameter distribution of the forest. He concluded that the best results were obtained with a Beta function, an exponen- tial type I function from Meyer (1952) and a polynomial function from Goff, et a1. (1975). In his study of invento- ry for reconnaissance Carvalho (1980) found.the l/4-chain square sample adequate for natural regeneration studies. Forest management planning as a process has been targeted in guidelines for the Tapajos region by Dubois (1976). Based on the work of T. W. W. Wood, a management Planning expert, FAO/IBDF (1980) has prepared a management Plan for the Tapajos National Forest for the Brazilian 90vernment. The plan presents detailed operational and administrative procedures which are the most concrete and practical guides available to date. Yield regulation is suggested, and the entire forest is to be cut over in 35 years . Created National Cong atotal area ii. The actua ‘mfisly 531‘ base map of thmughout t] Plants, 111le not EXCess i v! the! princir and fire prOt within the £0] Small hm lave been p :rs' and h hand. they w inral CHAPTER III THE TAPAJOS NATIONAL FOREST AND IMPLICATIONS FOR ITS MANAGEMENT Land and Vegetation Types Created in 1972, and legally constituted by the National Congress in 1974, the Tapajos National Forest has a total area estimated at 600,000 hectares (see Appendix A). The actual area, according to FAO/IBDF (1980) is appro- ximately 531,200 hectares, obtained from a planimetered base map of 1:250,000. Climate is essentially uniform throughout the forest area and is very favorable for plants, including tree growth, since there is adequate but not excessive rainfall in most months. A dry season effective for four months raises some problems for silvicul- ture, principally planting periodicity, species selection and fire protection. Topography as well as soils are very favorable to yearround logging and associated transport Within the forest (Olin 1978). Small human settlements in the Tapajos National Forest have been practicing shifting cultivation for several years, and have acquired land-use rights ; on the other hand, they will provide a source of labor. Silvo-agricul- tural systems might be of great assistance in stabilizing 15 these settlemer 1975). Actual but indetermin agricultural second-growth have long r: classification optimum land u: Closed tr 5 many as 10 are now consi considers that are the only Pal” (was): frequency of Jar fl, E all aw diStributiOn experimental . of , w and T % In gene IOiiOWed Dilbo Zena 9. b. 16 these settlements and improving their social status (IBDF 1975). Actual land use in the region includes substantial but indeterminate areas of cropped land and abandoned agricultural clearings, presently in young invasive second-growth (Olin 1978). Resource planners and managers have long recognized the need for systematic land classification so that sound judgments can be made about optimum land use. Closed tropical forests may have on any given hectare as many as 100 or more tree species, only a few of which are now considered commercially valuable. FAO/IBDF (1980) considers that the High forest, with and without babacu, are the only’ commercially' exploitable types. The Babacu Palm (Orbignya speciosa) is utilized to distinguish the two types. Its presence means a flatter region with a high frequency of mature-sized species, such as Tachi vermelho, Jar ana , anrubarana , Me lancieira , Tavari pogueca , and Pau ficare. Barros (1980) has described the species distribution for High forest without babacu in an experimental unit, and it shows a relatively high abundance 0f Andiroba, Magaranduba, Louros, Tachi preto, and Tachi branco. In general, the classification of vegetation has f0110wed Dubois's (1976) guidelines: 1. Zonal primary forests a. High forest with babacu b. High forest without babacu d. P 2 Azona a. S b. C 3. Secon In this : babacu will be National managed for p] ““3. output: public than f, “ace IESOUri outPuts (Whetl Pilblic as to wildlife' Wat: be available below their e outpUts of a ‘ng a C1irect ialue 0f eS tOUS one in f( Multiple to. us altarna1 17 c. The complex of cipoalic forests and "cipoal" d. Paraclimax flanco forests 2. Azonal primary forests a. Sedentary creek forest b. Creek swamp forest 3. Secondary growth In this study, only the high forest with and without babacu will be considered for management. National Forest Multiple Use National forests, as public enterprises, are not to be managed for profit in the way private business is. However, costs,.outputs, and efficiency are no less important for public than for private enterprises. Economizing the use of scarce resources and productive factors to produce desired outputs (whether sold for cash or not), is as applicable to public as to private enterprises. Wilderness, recreation, wildlife, water, and other outputs of national forests must be available to the public free or at prices substantially below their economic value. This is also true for the same outputs of a privately-owned forest. The problem of secur- ing a direct financial return comparable to the economic value of these outputs is a persistent and nearly ubiqui- tous one in forestry. Multiple use forestry requires making hard choices among alternative uses or use mixes where the ultimate goal is to maxi these choic groupings intensity 0 possible a2 great numb objectives cannot be 5 ing the cor that the s planner an. 1y ' PSYCh< (1978) to which cann. The n habitats “the land deniands ( I species conside r e d Sistems 0: cont: ibute aPpareht 18 is to maximize outputs. The dominating factors affecting these choices are the values of individual trees or small groupings of vegetation and the relative values and intensity of competition for resources (Cordell 1979). Many possible alternatives must be compared in the light of a great number of more or less consistent, or conflicting objectives (aims, goals) between which functional relations cannot be specified. In the process of comparing and assess- ing the consequences of the alternatives, it is unavoidable that the subjective preferences of the decision-maker and planner and of institutions play a vital role. Consequent- ly, psychometric methods have been introduced by Henne (1978) to obtain solutions corresponding to objectives which cannot be expressed in physical or monetary units. The multiple use concept recognizes wildlife and its habitats as major renewable resources; it stipulates that the land can be used without environmental deterioration and without impairing its capabilities to meet other demands (Lennart 1979). It is known, however, that several species of forest wildlife and plants are presently considered threatened with extinction and that prevailing systems of forest management in some regions of the world contribute to that threat. The basic conflict is. very apparent. Multiple-use, which promises protection from impairment, deterioration, and irreversible damage to wildlife and plant communities may have limited application on some forest lands, not in the concept itself, but rather in the way the using the cone to he considers The free wilderness, wi planning very National Fore: Economic tests levels are a process have benefits which National can Produce i less, Wildli natior1&1 fore “‘18 for the little or DC decisions M' ' c pilot pmjeci USEfUl t0 the 19 in the way the concept has been traditionally applied. In using the concept in the Tapajos region, these facts have to be considered. The free outputs from a National Forest, such as wilderness, wildlife, and water, make rational economic planning very difficult. The free capital embodied in the National Forests similarly distorts economic :management. Economic tests for forest practices and management at alle levels are a requirement. The actors in the ‘management process have to rely on the careful weighing of costs and benefits which is the essence of economic management. National forests are a valuable national asset. They can produce important amounts of wood, recreation, wilder- ness, wildlife, and water, with good management. The national forests are capital intensive, and charges must be made for their use. The availability of their outputs at little or no cost to the users will distort management decisions. Management of the Tapajos National Forest as a pilot project can make other Brazilian forests much more useful to the nation's people. Management Systems Possible management systems to be applied in tropical forests are considered by IBDF (1975) as: 1. Exclusive forest production systems - timber and secondary forest production. 2. Taungya production systems - all silvo-agricultural eye is est 3. Con nat (ur tn 4. Wi Clearc and the un nents whicl an exclusi uneven-age,- pilot fore Forest , to 20 systems in which one short agricultural rotation is associated with the early stage of timber crop establishment. 3. Combined timber and cattle management systems - native or men-made forest over grassland (uniformly or discontinuously), or in belts of trees between tracts of pasture. 4. Wildlife production systems. Clearcutting with artificial or natural regeneration and the uniform shelterwood system are the common treat- ments which have been usually recommended to be utilized in an exclusive forest production system. I propose that an uneven-aged management system be implemented as part of the pilot forest management project for the Tapajos National Forest, to emphasize exclusive forest production. The Philosophy of Uneven—aged Management For organizational purposes, forests are classified into even-aged stands or uneven-aged stands. Silvicultural— ly, even-aged stands contain trees which originated at about the same time and, following a period of establish- ment, develop under full light conditions, without signifi- cant border competition (Davis 1966). Stands containing trees of several ages that develop with significant interaction with surrounding trees of different ages are classified as uneven-aged (Hann 1979). The regulatory control varia stand volume stand struct‘ uneven-aged r as well as e aged silvicr selection on selection me nents of th. be practice tolerant 5] reProduce a mdificatior timber is Group Sele< intolerant selectiOn u The pp mainly in the ern-a deed 0n t ”t that foreSter,S and silvic- @nt 21 control variables in even-aged management are stand age or stand volume. In uneven-aged management the variables are stand structure and stocking. The choice between even or uneven-aged management systems is dictated by silvicultural as well as economic and operational considerations. Uneven- aged silviculture may be applied either by single tree selection or by group selection. Under the single tree selection method, size, thrift, and quality of the compo- nents of the stand are the primary considerations. It can be practiced continuously only in stands composed of tolerant species, of which the commercially important reproduce and grow well under shade. Group selection is a modification of the selection method whereby the mature timber is removed in groups rather than by single trees. Group selection can be.used with species which are too intolerant of shade to reproduce satisfactorily under the selection method. The philosophy of uneven-aged management was developed mainly in France and Switzerland after the advancement of the even-aged philosophy. Hann (1979) states that it was based on the concept that forest management is primarily an art that relies heavily upon the continuous input of a forester's ecological experience (with its scientific base) and silvicultural judgment in order to implement the manage- ment plan and to meet the stated objectives. Uneven-aged silviculture is determined by the harvest-regeneration method employed, and it is just as amenable to systematic treatment i uneven-aged ment of a forest sust quality tir tives shoul on forest < simplicity . Forest The t} maTelnent Although ti major steps 1. Ti: 2. Ti. me 3. Ti si The m.- Ed 1“ aPPl muSt be ‘ suggesm t the follow 1‘ Ti 3 22 treatment as is even-aged. management. The philosophy' of uneven-aged management emphasizes protection and improve- ment of a stable forest environment, the guarantee of forest sustentation and. production of large-sized, high- quality timber. Its proponents believe that these objec- tives should not be sacrificed for higher rates of return on forest capital, greater wood fiber yield, or management simplicity. Forest Management Planning for Timber Production The typical planning process used for developing land management plans follows a sequence of several phases. Although this process might be described in many ways, the major steps are: l. The identification of issues and objectives. 2. The development of the resource system and manage- ment options. 3. The analysis of tradeoffs that accompany deci- sions, and feedback (Betters 1978). The major decisions facing the forest manager interest- ed in applying uneven-aged management for timber production must be specified and understood. Available literature suggests that most of these decisions can be reached when the following items have been thoroughly examined: 1. The optimal, sustainable diameter distribution for a given stand, expressed as number of trees in each and 1 2. The meet 3. The infll cal distl will 4. The Peri. SUSt. 5- The and the met mOdi 23 each diameter class to establish optimal stocking and maximum tree size. 2. The optimal species mix for a stand in order to meet final product objectives. 3. The optimal cutting cycle length for each stand as influenced by logging equipment limitations, physi- cal and economic accessibility, and by mdnimizing disturbance to the stand and site, and how these will influence optimal diameter distribution. 4. The optimal conversion strategy and conversion period length for each stand to meet the optimal sustainable condition. 3 5. The optimal scheduling of compartment treatments and the date of entry for each compartment so that the treatment of the forest as a whole can best be met. Optimal stand treatment may have to be modified in order to meet forest-wide objectives. The uneven-aged management approach should be the system to be applied in the Tapajos National Forest in order to meet the objectives of sustained yield production and to reduce impacts on its natural habitat. Any manage- ment plan must be consistent with this philosophy and must include specified guidelines for each stand to meet the optimal biological-economic objectives for the National Forest as a whole. A spect National For trolled by ‘ specific use administrati occur on the In the from one wh life and un in a natura es economic tic POSitic be develop maclament assessment. There PIOgresS i] RiVer area Million he °f Henna t .0115 ‘PEI ‘dg 24 Utilization Impacts and Lonngerm Productivity A spectrum of alternatives exists for each parcel of National Forest land. The range of this spectrum is con- trolled by the inherent suitability of the land to satisfy specific uses and the degree to which past legislative or administrative action has limited or extended what can occur on that land. In the Tapajos National Forest the alternatives range from one which places maximum emphasis on the amenities of life and under which a significant area could be preserved in a natural and unmodified condition, to one which stress— es economic considerations. Lying between these two puris- tic positions are a great number of alternatives which can be developed by giving varying weighted values to the management opportunities in the near future, after adequate assessment. There are no large scale forest management plans in progress in the Amazon area at present, except in the Jari River area- The Jari project. is developing' more than a million hectares in Northern Brazil, with 100,000 hectares of melina (Gmelina arborea) and pine plantations; a 750 tons-per—day bleached kraft pulp mill; a native wood sawmill that cuts 100,000 board feet per day; a kaolin mine; a 500 tons-per-day refinery; 4,000 hectares of irrigated rice with a rice mill; herds of 6,500 cattle, 5,500 buffalo, and 800 pigs; and poultry, fruit and vege- table production (Briscoe 1980). Implement Tapajos Natio impact Upon social implic. resources as opportunities region will 1: local economy in the base also increase Timber harves resident bird trees and fore and number Of will be increa change in Spe ale associated or other Vege results in tl there are Situ and “Crease d for emsion’ held analyS is harVests . 25 Implementation of any management proposal for the Tapajos National Forest will have a continuing physical impact upon the environment as well as having certain social implications. More people are expected to use the resources as the proposal is implemented. Diversity of opportunities and the attraction of people from outside the region will be expected to add additional revenue to the local economy. This will be offset in part by a reduction in the base timber growing area. Additional people will also increase the potential for various forms of pollution. Timber harvesting will cause temporary displacement of resident birds and animals. Changes in vegetative cover types and forest class distribution will affect the species and number of both birds and animals. The greatest effect will be increasing the variety of habitats with a resultant change in species represented. Certain hydrologic impacts are associated with road construction, timber harvesting, or other vegetative .manipulation. Such activity' normally results in, the exposure of mineral soil and frequently‘ there are situations that result in concentrations of water and increased surface run-off. To minimize the potential for erosion, “flooding, or habitat degradation, a water yield analysis procedure must be part of planned timber harvests. Careful design and construction of roads will minimize adverse effects. Short-term timber yields under a managed situation may be signi f icantly reduced compared to unmanaged exploitatic managed to Relatively must be th Forest. Tr; recognize tributary impact wilL structures sedimentat; Natior that each Succeeding be PIEGlCa social pm may not b. Pilblic pr ijection wilt of 26 exploitation, particularly in. those areas which. will be nanaged to maintain an uneven-aged continuous forest cover. Relatively short-term planning with periodic reevaluations must be the appropriate procedure for the Tapajos National Forest. Transportation planning and timber harvesting will recognize the significance of the Tapajos River and its tributary streams in providing for fish spawning. This impact will be minimized by designing and installing stream structures to minimize the effects of increased stream sedimentation during critical fish spawning periods. National Forest management is based on the premise that each generation is a trustee of the environment for succeeding generations. Projecting long term effects will be predicated on certain assumptions with respect to future social preferences. Any single specified. direction today may not be acceptable through time, because of changes in public preference. The risk and uncertainties of future projections lend support to directions favoring the enhance- ment of long term productivity, and will depend on how successful and how detailed the implementation of a proposed plan for the Tapajos National Forest will be. IBDF (1975) has suggested: Permanent forest estates should be exploited and managed in order to attend the requirements of horizontally integrated wood-based industries. Integrated wood-based industries of overall large production capacity are the only’ ones able to economically justify and support the implantation of their own technical and social infrastructure in virgin areas. Their location within sustained yield logging areas, or within the shortest possible their cap (maximize produce a tion and 1 Maintaining impairment of air and of providing suit spaces are s assessing pote: 27 possible distance from log supplies, as well as their capacity to carry intensive exploitations (maximized output of cubic meter-log/hectare) produce appreciable savings on felling, extrac- tion and log transportation costs. Maintaining the inherent soil capability without impairment of productivity, maintaining the quality of the air and of the surface and ground water resources, providing suitable ‘wildlife habitat. and.:maintaining open spaces are some of the factors to be considered in assessing potential long term productivity. Timber decisions I scheduling reforestatic former prov he Planni‘ timber and needed refc and the r ah:erllative E‘magfiment toclr, and and/OI' ref The CHAPTER IV THE MANAGEMENT MODEL DESIGN Timber management planning essentially involves decisions on two basic issues: temporal and spatial scheduling of harvests during a planning period and the reforestation strategy that is to follow each harvest. The former provides the amount of timber and income flow during the planning period. The latter indicates the flow of timber and income expected one rotation in the future, the needed reforestation investment during the planning period, and the rate of return to the land under the proposed alternative. These short and long-run flows are shaped by management objectives, spatial distribution of growing stock, and restrictions, if any, on the level of harvest and/or reforestation activities. I The uneven-aged forest stand is a heterogeneous spatial arrangement of trees varying in age, size, and species. It is constantly changing. Utilization of solar energy, nutrients, and water produces a size increase in the living trees. Mortality, either from natural or catas- trophic causes, removes individual trees that are competing for growing space. Ingrowth, the accretion of trees above an arbitarily defined lower size boundary, represents an 28 increase of niche in the In esser system that components. with the comp: In desig effects of growth and y integration 0 1- Harv 2. Silv 3. Grow 4- Econ H tallies ' w HaIvest 29 increase of the accountable trees that are competing for a niche in the measurable stand. In essence, the foregoing process defines an evolving system that is composed of several specified measurable components. To the forest. manager, these are synonymous with the components of net forest growth. Subsystem Definition In designing a management model, the prediction of the effects of harvesting and silvicultural treatments on growth and yield in the Tapajos National Forest is made by integration of the following components: 1. Harvesting 2. Silviculture 3. Growth 4 . Economics Harvesting Harvest scheduling is a disinvestment process, and focuses primarily on timber and cash flow during the planning period. Any harvest scheduling strategy’ may’ be used between the performance standard approach at the one extreme and equal annual or periodic volume at the other extreme. Because of its focus on output and income in the near future, harvest scheduling may be termed short-range planning. Logging, in effect, is a perturbation that initiates secondary ecological succession. The vegetation response to perturbatior :31 conditiu success of immediately considered A typi ings; felli tion; and g 1979). Thi stock in thinning a1 vines whic but depend the canopy grow to ti they are 9 during the The ( forests f0 conSisst of 1.w S C r 2,C 3,W 30 perturbation depends upon the type of logging, environmen- tal conditions, local patterns of plant succession and the success of regeneration efforts. Changes in the vegetation immediately following harvest are an important factor to be considered in stand regeneration. A typical harvest operation requires roads and land- ings; felling, bucking and hauling of logs; site prepara- tion; and planting or reseeding of the site (Cromack et a1. 1979). Thinning is the systematic regulation. of growing stock in a forest (Malmberg 1965). To increase growth, thinning and brush control are often practical. Lianas are vines which are rooted in the soil and form a rigid stem but depend on the trees for support as they grow upwards in the canopy. In a tropical forest, vines and epiphytes can grow to the point where they strangle the tree upon. which they are growing. For this reason they must be eliminated during the logging and tending operations. The extraction systems 'usually' utilized. in tropical forests for off-road log moving, according to Andel (1978), consist of the following machinery: l. Winch-lorries, usually locally adapted army surplus three-axle vehicles, self-loading, with a capacity of 4-5 cubic meters. They are also used for log transport over forest roads. 2. Crawler-tractor, for off-road log moving. 3. Wheeled-skidders, for log moving along skid trails at higher speeds. 4. Cat H101. Combine winch, and log-loading radiating f yarder with tree locati or transfer movement. Operat 00 the :9 stand Whil machine Op tinuous tr infrastruc and quaint-,1 ing and 1 operatiOns sound been 31 4. Cable yarders, for high-lead yarding or skyline movement of logs. Combinations of these machines may include a crawler, winch, and lorry along secondary roads without distinct log-loading yards, a crawler and skidder on skid trails radiating from a roadside log-loading yard, and a highlead yarder with 6-10 cable-ways radiating from a hilltop spar- tree location, to which logs are yarded for direct loading or transfer to log-loading yards by skidding or skyline movement. Operations with these systems have considerable impact on the residual stand. Reducing' damage to the residual stand while removing trees requires proper training’ for machine ioperators. Despite having the world's largest con- tinuous tropical forest resource, Brazil's tree harvesting' infrastructure is very underdeveloped, both qualitatively and quantitatively. Felling is with ax or chain saw; bunch- ing and forwarding are largely a manual operation. Such operations may in. fact be financially and economically sound because of low wage rates and unemployment in rural zones. Mechanization should be carried out only if rural labor becomes scarce and/or no longer competitive in cost/ productivity terms. The lack of development in this area is due principally to government. regulations concerning ”nationalization" of equipment. manufacture. Manufacturers will have to develop machines appropriate to Brazil's conditions. will have determine Brazil (Be considered Table l, t ing 150,001 Silvicultu: The natural so the laws trees and 1 Stand also large Since the CYcle, the ing with factors De. 1. T b. 2, T a be Tl tr 0E 32 conditions, and promote new harvesting techniques, but this will have to be preceded by careful economic analysis to determine if such mechanization is economically viable for Brazil (Beattie 1980). Logging costs and operations to be considered on the Tapajos National Forest are presented in Table 1, based on the work of Letourneau (1978) in produc- ing 150,000 cubic meters of timber per year. I! Silviculture The immediate foundation of silviculture in the natural sciences is the field of silvics, which deals with the laws underlying the growth and development of single trees and of the forest as a biological unit (Smith 1962). Stand density influences not only growth and yield but also largely determines stem quality (Godman, et al. 1971). Since the role of density is important throughout the stand cycle,_the regeneration system must assure adequate stock- ing with a minimum establishment period. The following factors need to be considered: 1. The presence of seedlings on the forest floor before exploitation; 2. The ability of these seedlings to remain alive for a period long enough to bridge the interval between seed years; 3. The ability of these practically dormant seedlings to respond with vigor to any light increase from opening up the canopy. Tabls 9E l.Fellin (two m 2.8kiddir (crawls 3.Loading (hydrau mounte 4.Hauling (Poletyfi on two S'Dumping (large ‘ end lo. 6' ROads (temPOra 7.0VerhEa( l Estimat 33 Table 1. Costs of logging operations in the Tapajos National Forest1 Operation Felling and cross-cutting (two man team using chain saws) Skidding (crawler or rubber-tired tractors) Loading (hydraulic heel boom crawler mounted loader) Hauling (poletype trailer trucks on two shifts per day) Dumping (large articulated rubber-tired front end loader equipped with log forks) Roads (temporary and permanent) Overhead Total Estimates based on Letourneau (1978). Cruzeiros/m3 50. 220. 80. 460. 85. One can 5 regenerati' of seedlin 0n tt tions will of the or greater qu In tl tives are 1. h‘ 2.E 34 One can see then that it is unrealistic to expect rapid regeneration after logging in areas with inadequate numbers of seedlings already on the ground. On the Tapajos National Forest, silvicultural opera- tions will be principally concerned with the regeneration of the crop and with its gradual refinement to produce greater quantities of fewer but more desirable species. In the light of these factors, the following alterna- tives are presented for obtaining regeneration: 1. Natural regeneration. 2. Enrichment planting with natural regeneration - The planting of valuable commercial species in the open spaces in the forest. 3. Line plantation 'with natural regeneration. - 'The establishment of a tree crop in spaced lines (see Appendix D). 4. Close plantation - Plantation of trees close to each other in deforested areas. 5. Exclude from production. Natural regeneration may be assisted by some release. Enrichment planting in open spaces in the forest, and line plantation will be made with fastgrowing desirable species and tended until established. Close plantations will be effectuated with fast commercial growing species after clearcutting. Stands to be excluded from production include non-productive forest areas that, according to FAO/IBDF (1980), are secondary growth, windblow, forest, creek forest (art meters per aside for studies. Becaus above presr available, tion alter: tions and silvicultur selection, high densi Stand cond; Silvi. Cutting Cy l. M 2.B 35 forest (art. 2, Appendix B), forest with less than 5 cubic meters per hectare of merchantable timber, and areas set aside for phenological, silvicultural or management studies. Because information on the exact conditions for the above prescriptions in the Tapajos National Forest is not available, the designed model will analyze these regenera- tion alternatives under different initial stocking condi- tions and stochastic seed generation. The uneven-aged silvicultural system to be applied will be single tree selection, because of local observation by the author of high density of tolerant species and generally uneven-aged stand conditions. Silvicultural factors that affect the length of the cutting cycle in management can be considered as: 1. Maximum use of the area by growing stock. 2. Biological control of the stand. 3. Mortality. 4 . Species requirements for regeneration. Growth In the uneven-aged stand, tangible parameters or quantities that represent the forest system may be number of trees, diameters, basal area, or volume. Age, a para- meter that is commonly utilized in the study of forest stand development, is not included, since its interpreta- tion is at best nebulous for the uneven-aged stand. The 3 represents tables, beca management c individual ( major paramr was DBH (1). ground). One pu is to deter the dimensi. (Chapman 1; clevelopment into a corn; he characte Bent. Them Diamat. {3%}: of :rees per h' 1, Cu- Wi de 2, Ge fa Co Ni 36 The simulation of growth with computer models represents a considerable advance in the use of yield tables, because the effects of many more silvicultural and management options can be examined quickly, and because the individual conditions of each stand can be considered. The major parameter applied for the growth model in this study was DBH (Diameter at Breast Height -- 1.30 meters above ground). One purpose of studying the diameter growth of trees is to determine the total volume of trees or to determine the dimensions or sizes reached by trees in a given period (Chapman 1924). The biometric .functions forecasting the development of various stand parameters, which are combined into a compatible system enabling the stand as a whole to be characterized, are mainly a function of diameter incre- ment. These functions were prepared by using regression analysis with available data. Diameter growth is affected mainly by competition or number of trees (Kirchner, et al. 1979). The number of trees per hectare is determined by: 1. Cutting intensity. A function, of available trees with DBH greater than 45 cm per hectare and the desired volume output. 2. Germination and seedling survival. These are major factors which determine regeneration. Climatic conditions, animal browsing and mechanical damage will determine germination and survival . wi sn TI on 3. MC ea ra Re of ed ha 4. Gr: in bi The t rapidly th. The nature .QEding a Hearth Of he reSeaJ ahish gr tonnes na 37 Germination may be delayed. for some seeds, and will occur over all cycles in the model, but in small proportions if no seed trees are available. Trees with a DBH greater than 45 cm, are the only ones able to produce seed. 3. Mortality. Under the natural process, during the early years, the number of trees is reduced more rapidly because of intraspecific competition. Reduction continues at a lower rate for the rest of the life of the stand. Mortality may be increas- ed in the residual stand when some treatment or harvesting is executed. 4. Growth delay. This is an indirect relationship to intraspecific competition, and will affect the biometric increment of the stand. The trees to be planted are expected to grow more rapidly than those which will provide the initial output. . The nature of interactions between effects (e.g., tree breeding and thinning), and the long-term upper limits to growth of stands under new conditions are matters requiring more research. These planted trees will be assumed to have a high growth rate in the model. They are expected to produce natural regeneration as soon as a considerable number of them reach a diameter of 45 cm. 38 Economics More component parts besides the physical processes of forest production are needed to enable the model to trans- late the physical consequences of a management alternative into information about economic returns. Both prices and unit costs are needed to bring the model one more step closer to reality. The interrelationships of costs and revenues are an important part of any economic appraisal of a project. The level of forest investment coupled with“ the productive potential of the .forest essentially’ determine future productivity and profitability. Because of their future implications, forest investments may be termed long-range. A number of economic parameters have been used to analyze long-term profitability of investments (Noqueira 1980). In this study, we will use Present Net Worth (PNW), generally defined as the present value of expected future returns over the forest cycle minus the present value of expected future costs, with costs and returns discounted at an appropriate rate of interest. Revenues from the forest will be based on the final output. Costs for harvesting and transport of sawlogs, silvicultural treatment, protecting and maintaining the forest's productive capacity will also be considered. The use of PNW as a measure of management simulation implies that the government is indifferent to risk as measured by, for example, the variance of expected values. According to Squire, et al. (1979), this is justifiabll projects a population project i: income of Altho ample a: substantia unlikely t the rate hmome mes exchange a lack o interprets marginal alternati. Beon L"YCle in 1. 2. The th . e late ’igs 2 39 justifiable -provided the risks of all public sector projects are pooled and spread over the country's entire population so that a change in the outcome of any usingle project is unlikely to have a significant impact on the income of any single group. Although a great deal of planning is based on the simple assumption. that. ;present. prices will. continue substantially unchanged, experience suggests that this is unlikely to happen. A utilization of the discounted rate as the rate of decrease over time in the value of the public income measured in domestic currency equivalent to foreign exchange can approach results close to reality. Because of a lack of such information, the discounted rate will be interpreted in this study in the traditional way, as the marginal productivity of additional investment in the best alternative uses. Economic factors affecting the length of the cutting cycle in uneven-aged management can be considered as: 1. Size of product needed. 2. Required volume to be cut per hectare to justify logging expenses. 3. Need for a frequent periodic income from the area. 4. Less accessible areas may require longer cutting cycles with a heavier cut. The gross logical flow of the designed model reflects the integration approach to the phases discussed above (Figs. 2 and 3). 40 START 0]? DO LOOP i SUBROUTINE INDEX j, LIMITS n,m. CALL FOR RETURN imam TERMINUS OF LOOP i PROGRAM BEGINNING AND END COMPUTATION ~ ' AN ENTRY FROM, OR EXIT OR PROCESSING TO, ANOTHER PART OF THE PROGRAM FLOWCHART INPUT OR OUTPUT —-—- '-—— DIRECTION OF FLOV DECIS ION Figure 2. The legend for the flowcharts Figu 41 INPUT DATA [ YEAR-0 REMOVE COMMERCIAL A B TREES CALCULATEN C PRESENT WORg OUTPUT /// i \ NEW YEAR cmmnr 4// P flSCRIPTION / fl. Figure 3. Gross logical flowchart for TAPAFOR . The approa dynamic pr: number of cyclic harv ture. To a point to a stand and : the forest specific tr The sc We used emPloyed i: aPplied wp incaliable available 1 pr°bibilit1 ”Pulatim Sillinlate m In Or he divided for an e Si 35 10 Cm nents incl l‘N C 42 The Model Design Approach The approach adopted in this project has been to use a dynamic process in which the changing distribution of the number of trees in the forest is modified by initial and cyclic harvest intensity of timber, and by applied silvicul- ture. To avoid errors of aggregation, it is expected to point to an optimum treatment consistent with a particular stand and its environment. The model is structured to bring the forest to a prescribed condition as a result of specific treatments. The so-called ”Monte Carlo” method is a common techni- que used in simulation models. It will be the technique employed in different phases of this study..Monte Carlo is applied when data are incomplete or relationships are incapable of rigorous solution, and the only information available pertains to the mathematical characteristics of a probability distribution. Random samples are drawn from a population with this probability distribution in order to simulate naturally occurring variations. In order to design the model, the stand is assumed to be divided into 15 DBH classes, with a minimum DBH of 15 cm for an established tree. The class interval was determined as 10 cm based on the work of Barros (1980). Stand treat- ments include: 1. Natural regeneration of exportable trees, local commercial trees, and non-commercial trees. tr tr Forest in the mod (productiv: logical f process n model-quip described W3 Basic Of an idel the intens under eXis “duets . 43 2. Artifical regeneration by line plantation with treatment 1. 3. Artifical regeneration by enrichment planting with treatment 1. 4. Artifical regeneration by close plantation after clearcutting. Forest types have been considered as of no influence in the model, since it was developed only for high forest (productive forest), with no slope influence. The detailed logical flowchart in Figure 4 presents the development process of the Tapajos National Forest management mode1--TAPAFOR-- and it was implemented by the subsystems described above in the following manner. Harvesting Basically, the single tree selection process consists of an identification of trees to be cut, when to cut, and the intensity to cut. Because Amazon species are unsuitable under existing manufacturing technology for pulp and paper products, the output will be sawlogs. Thus only commercial- ly valuable trees with a DBH greater than 45 cm will be removed. Under' a [close plantation alternative treatment, clearcutting in small patches will be used. Residues from forest harvesting operations, depending on intensity of cut, can represent sound quantities of material, but the high cost of their removal will limit their use, as a raw 444 rNeum ORIGINAL STAND AREA N. GENERATE \\\\ KNOWN? RANDOM Nuugen * Y "INPUT“ AREA "INPUT" / CALCULATE rnznrusNrj/‘I AREA ' r CUTTING INTENSITY ‘0 VOLUME REMOVED NEW STORAGE Figure 4. Detailed logical flowchart for TAPAFOR . "569mm “57 m nu.- fl) 45 DISCOUNTED COST FOR TREES CALCULATE DISCOUNTED «Lemur: ' parses? NET m CALCULATE RESIDUAL AID TOTAL PRESENT VALUE Figure 4. (cont'd.). 46- CUTHAS ARTI CUT HAS mam-b Yul-1? I m nzuv ‘ was I! ur- mum , non amour: «nun strum IONI- u us I u v nurmu. was ’ centurion i was one ‘ ammo- . mun ' mun i I E i #——' "croutons. DIM!- l Figure 4. (cont'd.). i i 47 SILVICULTURE OPTION INPUT TREATMENT HIGH DENSITY ? TRE CUT NON ' COMERCIAL PS ' N CALCULATE TREES TO BE . PLAN‘I'ED "INPUT" / anvss'rLNc/i FINISH AND ENTER NEW ‘ A. STAND '3 IN? “T” CUTTING INTENSITY Figure 4. (cont'd.). material is expects 1961). Cutti ed as sen defined by The ‘ certs varie certa Cutti determiner nance. It studies 0 in the f Present, time acco. tural Cha. Of Seed (:1 The PIOCQSS W1 1. 48 material for energy production for example. Logging slash is expected to decompose in about two to three. years (Nye, 1961). Cutting cycle and cutting intensity can be characteriz- ed as sensitivity components of the system. Sensitivity is defined by Ackoff (1962) as: The variation in simulation necessary to produce certain changes in structural properties... and variations in simulation required to produce certain changes in functional properties. Cutting cycle length will be: a flexible option to be determined by the model user according to stand perfor- mance. It can also be modified on the basis of projection studies of markets to determine desired tree distributions in the future as influenced by prescribed inputs in the present. Cutting intensity will be an input at harvesting time according to the desired output or to determine struc- tural changes in a particular stand related to availability of seed trees. The principal parameters to be utilized in this process were considered as: 1. Average logging intensity. This depends on basal area and will determine the damage to the residual stand. Damage is characterized as broken off, crown damage, bark damage, or crown and bark damage to trees. Ranges in damages for each DBH class in relation to logging intensity are based on data in tropical forest literature. This topic should be a high priority for future field studies 49 in the Tapajos region. Table 2 presents the esti- mated damage values used in this study. 2. Removed volume. Volume is defined by Husch (1963) as the three-dimensional magnitude of an object. The volume to be removed was estimated for each DBH class based on an equation developed for the model, and is expressed in cubic meters. The volume removed is calculated for exportable trees and local commercial trees; planted trees are considered exportable species. Losses from felling breakage and natural defects were considered in a conservative way at 39 percent of the volume, with this deduction taken into account in the volume equation. In harvesting, trees are removed according to cutting intensity specifications proportionately from each DBH class in order to keep the stand distribution character- istics. Silviculture Many silvicultural measures may be recommended to the timber manager, and each measure can affect either the amount or the timing of revenues and costs (Gregory 1972). Thus, the length of the investment period may also be affected. Silvicultural operations affect growth rate, damages to the residual stand, and economic considerations. Table 90....... -. is) --‘-------I 5C) 50 Table 2. Ranges of damage to the residual stand for each DBH class. um cues _ Class on CI cm on c- A) log intanaity l 1000 - 00‘ a-700 a-Sa a-.9a a-.06t a-.050 b-95‘ b-30a b-loa b-90 b-O! 2 80! - 50o a-GOO a-ZO a-.l! a-.08t a-.07| b-72. b-1oo b-7t b-GQ b-Si 3 50. - 0t a-SO. a-lt a-.2a a-.Oli a-.01! b-63‘ b-Ba b-6. b-4t b-3t 4 B) enrich-ant a-70t a-2t a-.10 a-.010 a-.01i planting b-95t b-IO‘ b-S. b-lt b-7C 5 C) lino a-BO. a-lOt a-.50 a-.01! a-.01. planting b-QS‘ b-403 b-ZO‘ b-l. b-Sa 6 D) natural to: a-70t a-l! a-.l. a-.01Q a-.0090 natural trooa b-OO‘ b-90 b-.9‘ b-.5| b-.02§ 7 2) natural for a-.B‘ a-.Olt a-.01t a-.005a a-.005t planted troaa b-Oa b-.9\ b-.09a b-.05‘ b-.008a a - Lover range b - Upper range These require terized as a mutation is ficial regen selected spe valuable tin C). Enrichme tion are th imitation 0i) hawkin‘ su99ests a in comPlet comIllercial first ha: EXECUted . 51 These require changes in the model, and they can be charac- terized as a sensitive component of the system. The imple- mentation is based on two alternatives: natural and/or arti- ficial regeneration. Artificial regeneration will utilize selected species with a good growth rate, that produce valuable timber and are free from insect attack (Appendix C). Enrichment planting, close plantation, and line planta- tion are the alternatives for artificial regeneration. Line plantation technique as presented by FAO/IBDF (1980) based on.Dawkin's (1967) work is reproduced in Appendix D. He suggests artificial regeneration of 100 trees per hectare in completely open conditions. If the stand has 100 or more commercial trees with DBH greater than 15 cm after the first harvest, no line or enrichment planting will be executed. The process from seed germination to seedling survival to mature tree status is a cyclic one in general. The trees planted in an enrichment or line plantation technique are expected to compete effectively in that natural cycle. Since definitive results of these techniques are not availa- ble in the literature, an approximate stand distribution has been estimated, based on current literature about tree competition over time (Fig. 5). The maximum'number of valuable commercial trees to be planted is suggested to be 126 per hectare. Close plantation will be executed after clearcutting some areas, and 400 trees per hectare spaced 5 m. x 5 m. 52 127 - sq \ planlofi I to DO I Dd \\ 0' H... I Mullins N L ’1 ’1 ° 19 an 30 lo 7. lo too Number a. Conacclal raaldual Hana largo: than 18 cm In DIN Figure 5. Number of trees to be planted per hectare are sugge reserved f trees and adequate f may be net on the sol. Non-Cr favor vali planting j greater th 53 are suggested. Close plantation in practice must be reserved for stands with high density of mature commercial trees and low availability of seedlings on the ground. An adequate fertilizing procedure and a longer cutting cycle may be necessary because of the impact of the clearcutting on the soil and environment. Non-commercial thinning or silvicide treatment to favor valuable trees may be executed in years when no planting is done and where the number of trees with DBH greater than 15 cm is more than 300 per hectare. Growth The approach utilized to predict growth was based on a routine elaborated by Abkin and WOlf (1980), called Distri- buted Delay with Storage Losses, and Variable Delay Time, by using numerical integration. They stated: This routine simulates a Kth order continuous delay process with storage losses and accreations in the course of the delay and where the length of the delay varies over time. It automatically computes a smaller increment if necessay for stability and non-negative flow. Inputs to this routine are the flow into delay, the proportional loss rate and the length of the delay. Outputs are the flow out of the delay’ and the delay storage. This procedure divides the DBH classes into Kth order continuous delay processes and projects the trees into the future through diameter class distributions as a result of ingrowth, growth, and mortality (Fig. 6). The trees in a stand. are divided into 15 DBH classes, 54 mmmHo mmo o How mommoa ommuoum nu“: mmoooum amaov cousofiuumwo noouo a 0...". zoo a :. toao .35 «8° .o. »-.oo ou-aosc cum 4m whomwm no... o...vo£.o.c.“¢ goo: :no a c. coo-:3. FnXM afIXL. .. s. and by SF During a diameter « larger 51 that alas the inter‘ each DBH all possi artificial of trees interval 1 To q average d DBH class indicates from 1.5 dEIay rat To : phenoIner'ro specified Eda“? fa varianCe divided the fami increuses distribut (pig. 7). 55 and by species groups according to their commercial value. During a specific growth period DT the trees in a given diameter class may remain in the same class or advance to a larger size class according to the tree distribution in that class and the average delay. They may also die during the interval DT, or they may be harvested. The mortality in each DBH class will be based on probability and includes all possible factors that can cause mortality. Ingrowth or artificial regeneration will determine the expected number of trees entering in the smallest size class during the interval DT. To quantify the delay process, the model considers the average delay, which is based on the average growth rate by DBH class and treatment. Available data in the literature indicates growth from 1 to 1.5 cm for natural trees and from 1.5 to 2.5 cm a year for planted species. Specific delay rates are presented in Table 3. To simulate the delay process in the actual growth phenomenon, the density function for each DBH class must be specified, which then establishes the order of delay. The Erlang family of density functions was used to establish a variance approximately equal to the square of the delay divided by K stages. When K=l the Erlang distribution is the familiar exponential density function, but as K increases, the Erlang' distribution approaches the normal distribution with zero ‘variance (Manetsch, et al. 1977) (Fig. 7). By appropriate selection of K, the Erlang density I"II'I'"‘IIIIII"II"'-|"-‘RI'-|"III""I " I- ‘ -'I RR---‘ 'II'-""""'I|II|III""|""|""|-'l'| "' .'I! 'Il‘ .- .UCUEUUUHU CCU MQDHU END NQ £U3°HU UCUUU HON UUUUE ECU EHUMEA N0 MUD-ESE UUDHU>< om. 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"I"’.""l"l/J" “"""l\ \\ \\ I l l- ‘ I [I’l’V "l'l'l" ‘ ""',I \ \ I 0" ' cl" \ l"" ‘R \‘ I I II "' \ ll, \ R I I 'II I'I" ~ \ til-ll \ I ’I' lit" L \ \ \\‘I I, I ’I" "\0"-""' 'Il'-‘h|l R ’I’ II It 'IIIII ~ \ \\\ I, ‘ II I IIIIIIL Ts |il|| I / a \ ll; 9 \ la 9 \ 4/ . \ II s \ I . I a s . I a x . I s . / 9 \ ’ I s \ II ~\\ II N s :: function cal nena. As c calculate v DBH class, tend to a competition different : class dete close plan an almost In t based on a In line a for tree greater, basal are Plantatic for tree 58 function can represent a wide range of real world pheno- mena. As complete inventory data are not available to calculate variance and then determine the stages in each DBH class, the basic assumption in TAPAFOR is that trees tend to approach a normal distribution after initial competition, which appears to be close to reality. The different indices of competition for each treatment and DBH class determined the order K presented in Table 3. In a close plantation treatment, there is less competition, so an almost perfect normal distribution results. In the simulation process, the change in delay is based on the density of the stand and/or basal area growth. In line and enrichment planting the delay in DBH movement for trees less than 25 cm, where the competition is greater, will double if the number of trees exceeds 400 or basal area exceeds 45 square meters per hectare. In a close plantation treatment, the delay is also expected to double for trees with DBH less than 25cm, when total trees exceed 500 or basal area exceeds 70 square meters per hectare. Time increment (DT) in TAPAFOR was determined as one year. DT strongly influences model stability. If the model is unstable, its validity and usefulness are impaired if not annihilated. Since the delay routine used computes a smaller increment if necessary for stability and non- negative flow, additional DT adjustments for stability were not necessary. The damage losses in each simulation run are associated v presented in utilized in based on th process. In 1. ca cl 2. Ca complete based 59 associated with the operation executed. in that year as presented in Table 2. The Proportional Loss Rate (PLR) utilized in the delay process is a stochastic variable based on the normal distribution, since it is a biological process. In predicting PLR, the steps are: 1. Calculate the mean of the loss for a specific DBH class; 2. Calculate the standard deviation of the mean. Since smaller DBH classes normally have been observed to have :more losses, the variation in relation to the mean loss decreases. Then, the standard deviation of the mean loss is considered to increase as DBH class increases. 3. Generate a normal random PLR using a random generator between zero and one, and a function that interpolates numbers with equal increments (Llewellyn 1965), having a normal distribution as the basis. Inputs in the delay process are mainly from the natural process of ingrowth or some executed planting. To complete the model, a specific form must be given to the ingrowth function. It was set as a stochastic variable, and based on a. normal distribution. Natural regeneration is expected to follow the following pattern: 1. If there are no trees with DBH greater than 45 cm, an average of 500 seeds (S.D.=i200) will be produced. The s wide range wide varia The r average, l condition planted t is expect line 0:- 4 regenerat trees has Seedling Plantatic needed, t° From: field '5'- reegdzab1 Educ: S quality 60 2. If there are trees with DBH greater than 45 cm, an average of 800 seeds (S.D.=:300) will be produced. The standard deviation is included above to show the wide range in the availability of seeds, and the consequent wide variation in seed germination and seedling survival. The number of seeds is expected to be larger than the average, but in reality only a few are expected to be in a condition good enough to germinate and survive. With planted trees, a small proportion of natural regeneration is expected, mainly because of the planting treatment. A line or enrichment planting is expected to produce natural regeneration of 100 trees per hectare when at least ten trees have a DBH greater than 45 cm, The mortality for this seedling class is assumed at about 85 percent. In a close plantation, at least 200 trees with a DBH of 45 cm are needed, in order to consider the stand sufficiently mature to produce enough seeds for adequate regeneration. Future field studies of these rates are necessary to guide the reestablishment of the forest by natural regeneration, to favor species which can be utilized and to improve the quality of timber at low cost. Economics Present Net Worth (PNW) calculations are a routine operation in TAPAFOR, based on sawlogs as the final pro- duct. The present value of expected future returns over the simulation costs, witl rate of i analyze pro The 0; can be 1154 different : rate of va user must In p (1979) ant m Sawlogs a two cubi. PIOduce assumed 4 as fOllov l. 61 simulation cycle minus the present value of expected future costs, with costs and returns discounted at a specified rate of interest, will be the economic parameters to analyze profitability. The opportunity cost of capital is an alternative that can be used in TAPAFOR. The user has the option to use different rates of return in alternative treatments. If the rate of value growth falls below the best alternative, the user must choose the next most appropriate treatment. In predicting PNW, costs were derived from Beattie (1979) and IBDF records. Costs are expressed in the form of cruzeiros per hectare based on approximate 1981 data. Sawlogs are considered the final product, and in general, two cubic meters of commercial vOlume are necessary’ to produce one cubic meter of sawlogs. If the market is assumed to be in the city of Belem, costs were considered as follows: 1. Harvesting, logging, industrialization and trans- portation to produce one cubic meter of sawlogs -- CR$ 3,540.00 2. Non-commercial thinning, independent of output -- CR$ 1,200.00/hectare 3. weed control and maintenance -- CR$ 580.00 4. Planting, including all requirements: a. Close plantation -- CR$ 30.00 per tree b. Line plantation -- CR$ 26.00 per tree c. Enrichment planting -- CR$ 24.50 per tree he r multiplying meters of Prices were 1. L1 .7 hcti iNailabl this ti Ft Crimp 1eI V911 time. 1 eight lug ProcE a1 . Il‘socLE 62 The revenue at any point in time is obtained by multiplying output by price. The output will be two cubic meters of valuable trees for each cubic meter of sawlogs. Prices were established as follows: 1. Local commercial trees, an average price of CR$ 7,000.00 per cubic meter of final product or per two cubic meters of commercial volume. 2. Exportable trees or artificially regenerated species, an average price of CR$ 10,000.00 per cubic meter of sawlog or per two cubic meters of commercial volume. Actualized and updated data are expected to be available in the near future for an update of TAPAFOR. At this time, the above costs and prices are the best estimates available. Mathematical Components of the Model For the construction of valid mathematical models, a complete knowledge of the system which is being modeled as well as proficiency in mathematics are necessary condi- tions; however, in no sense can they be considered suffi- cient conditions, since successful mathematical model build- ing depends in part on the analyst's experience, trial procedures, and a considerable amount of luck (Naylor, et al. 1968). In predicting the mathematical portion of the model, the equations were derived from the available data for each component using regression analysis available in me Statis the Michig sion anal among the however, relationsl variables the curve transform form of data, on giving t chosen. Seve 1. TP 63 the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) at the Michigan State University Computer Laboratory. Regres- sion analysis asumes that the underlying relationships among the variables are linear and additive. It is, however, sometimes possible to reinstate a non-linear relationship in a linear form by transforming the orginal variables (Nie, et a1. 1975). Knowledge about the form of the curve produced by each relationship is required for the transformation of the variables. In the actual process, the form of the curve was obtained by plotting the variable data, on a graph, thus trying various models. The model giving' the best fit ‘using the least squares method ‘was chosen. Several equations used in the model are as follows: 1. Net commercial volume (cubic meters per tree) with 39 percent loss due to dark, natural defects and felling: v = 0.00576 (DBH) + .000529 (DBH)2 Where V = volume in cubic meters DBH = diameter at breast height (1.30 meter above the ground ) in centimeters 2. Total commercial trees to be planted under enrichment or line plantation option, per hectare: TP = 26.2666114 + 100.93BIOCOS[(TOTAL)(2.0)(7r/360.0)] 64 Where TP = total trees to be planted per hectare TOTAL = present number of commercial trees per hectare with DBH greater than 15 centi- meters 7r= 3.1416 COS = cosine in degrees Other equations were obtained from available litera- ture as follows: 3. Basal area was derived from an equation given by Husch, et al. (1972): BA = m (DBH)2 / (4 x 104) Where BA = basal area in square meters per hectare DBH = diameter at breast height in cm 7r = 3.1416 Average logging intensity: ALI = (TBAZ / TBA1)(100) Where ALI = logging intensity in percentage TBAl = total basal area in square meters before logging TBAZ = total basal area in square meters after logging 65 Initial intermediate density rates in each DBH class for proper performance of delay routine: Ri(O) = 8(0) / DIL(O) Where Ri(O) = intermediate rates according to delay order S(O) = storage in DBH class DIL(O) = average delay for the specified DBH class Present Net Worth (PNW): pr = Ry / (1 + i)y - Cy / (1 + i)y Where PNW = present net worth in cruzeiros y = year Ry = revenue in year y Cy = cost in year y i = rate of interest The which nee: ments for selected ted, resu facilitat. SYStem me it is cor the SYSte bEhavior than the The “bdel is CHAPTER V TAPAFOR DOCUMENTATION The System The systems approach can be defined as a process by which needs are identified, problems are selected, require- ments for problem solutions are identified, solutions are selected from alternatives, methods and means are implemen- ted, results are evaluated and revisions to the system to facilitate need removal are identified. To describe a system means that some kind of representation or model of it is constructed. A model is the analyst's description of the syStem. To be useful for communicating the nature and behavior of the system, the model must be less complicated than the real system (McMillan et al. 1973). The Tapajos National Forest management simulation model is the basic representation of an uneven-aged management system for a tropical forest. The prime purpose of TAPAFOR is to present an open-ended system designed for the management of an Amazon basin forest, which can be developed further through time. The model presents the relevant points that require attention in the use of the Tapajos National Forest as a pilot project for management of the Amazon forest. Based on further practical results, 66 additional to play a Brazil. The L The compc manipulat. schedules growth, decisions his objec This twelve s activitie variable: with equ 4 Gives 0f their The function For eac NETVAL' are cal. initial User, 1 activitj and ha: basis . 67 additional development of TAPAFOR will be necessary for it to play a realistic and useful future role in forestry in Brazil. The basic concept of TAPAFOR is presented in Fig. 8. The components discussed. previously* constitute the .basic manipulative representation of the model. Harvesting schedules and intensity, silvicultural treatment, forest growth, and financial factors “will influence the user's decisions about which alternatives are appropriate to meet his objectives. This simulation model consists of one main program and twelve subroutines. Six subroutines simulate management activities, two simulate stand growth, one generates random variables, two generate output and one interpolates numbers with equal increment based on a normal distribution. Table 4 gives a.]isting of the subroutines, and brief statements of their purposes. The main program--TAPAFOR--performs some input functions and controls the various subroutines (Fig. 9). For each year in the simulation run, the subroutines NETVAL, GROWTH, DELICT, PRESCR, LOSS, TABLIE, and OUTPUT are called. Subroutines SCREEN and COVER are called in the initial simulation run. Once every period specified by the user, the subroutine REMOVE is called. All management activities are performed on an annual basis. Silvicultural and harvesting operations are performed on a periodic basis. Stand growth is simulated by subroutine GROWTH. Each 68 TAPAFOR ‘TREATMENT MANAGEMENT STAND HARVESTING GROWTH COSTS DECISION P N W a\\ \\\‘ DATA 4// TDMBER OUTPUT REVENUE Figure 8. The basic concept of TAPAFOR 99w: . Progran Main ca up and organi routin select 69 Table 4. TAPAFOR and its subroutines COMPONENT FUNCTION 1. Program TAPAFOR Main calling routine, sets up and initializes arrays, organizes calling of sub- MAIN routines,and reads user- PROGRAM selected options. 2. Subroutine SCREEN Called from TAPAFOR, to read the initial input values and compute initial storage in the K-stages of delay pro- cess. t 1 INPUT 3. Subroutine COVER Called from SCREEN, to com- pute a stochastic variable area. Table 4 (c< some 4. Subrou1 Called GROWTH interp. equal 70 Table 4 (cont'd.) COMPONENT Subroutine TABLIE Called from COVER, GROWTH 1, GROWTH 2, and LOSS, to interpolate numbers with equal increment. FUNCTION MATHEMATICAL FUNCTIONS Subroutine OUTPUT 1 Called from TAPAFOR, to provide a detailed output by year if selected by the user. Subroutine OUTPUT 2 Called from TAPAFOR, to provide a general output by period selected by the user. OUTPUT Subroutine REMOVE Called from TAPAFOR, to remove trees to meet user specification and to calculate output. HARVESTING Subroutine NETVAL Called from TAPAFOR, to calculate all costs and revenues from operations executed. ECONOMICS Table 4 U gogggj 9, SubrOI Callet calcu seleC‘ alloc; and c. 10. Subro Calle1 execu Growt a clo 11- Subro Calle GROWT incre 12' SUDIQ Calle GR OWT \ \“ ‘ ‘ ‘ “‘ 71 Table 4 (cont'd.) 10. ll. 12. COMPONENT Subroutine GROWTH l Called from TAPAFOR, to calculate the growth of trees, select trees for mortality, allocate changes in DBH class, and calculate ingrowth. Subroutine GROWTH 2 Called from TAPAFOR, to execute the function of Growth for a stand under a close plantation option. Subroutine DELICT Called from GROWTH l and GROWTH 2, to determine the increment and new density in each DBH class. Subroutine LOSS Called from GROWTH l and GROWTH 2, to determine the stochastic proportional loss rate based on a normal distribution. FUNCTION STAND GROWTH Table 4 (C< seizes 13.Subrou Called calcul genera DOD'CC 72 Table 4 (cont'd.) COMPONENT FUNCTION 13. Subroutine PRESCR Called from TAPAFOR, to calculate artificial re— STAND generation and to execute TREATMENT non-commercial treatment. 73 < START i COMMON VARIABLES DATA VALUES PRINT PROGRAM LABEL CALL SCREEN Y . soc-1 L N l ///READ Z? OPTION__#/ TOM-0 \\ /fifi IPO'1,100 CALL REMOVE Figure 9. Detailed program flowchart for TAPAFOR 74 PRINT YEAR AND OLUME REMOVED t JOR I- l- 99 RINT LABEL AND READ DESIRED OUTPU 100 Figure 9. (cont'd.). Figure 9. 75 nun-imuh1_fi_____‘llly PRINT LABEL FOR NEW OUTPUT YEAR CALL GROWTHZ CALL GROWTH 1 A1 U (cont'd.). '76 SILV - O. PRINT LABEL // FOR ' SILVICULTURE/Fr ’4 / READ SILV / Yfi N ' PRINT LABEL FOR TREATMENT AND READ ITR TATU ' l. 4%<:iCALL PRESCR Figure 9. (cont'd.). Fi. 77 YEARS} . TATU - 1. OPT fl 1. YEAR'TOM . LOG - 0 Y PRINT LABEL AND READ LOG \ PRINT LABEL FOR CLEARCUT READ CL \. r PRINT LABEL N Y AND am CI I 15 Figure 9. (cont'd.). Hi year cash and the pr the standir Initi brium stag process ir be genera1 developmer. if the st cultural on a per 1 Inpu The active s the inPu Appendix In % The 78 year cash flows for the various activities are calculated and the present net worth of revenues and the net worth of the standing timber are displayed, at the user's option. Initially, the stand is assumed to be at an equili- brium stage. A harvest at year zero will start the change process in the forest. A detailed or a general output will be generated according to user specifications to show the development of the stand, which the user can check to see if the stand should be scheduled for harvesting or silvi- cultural treatment. All performances of TAPAFOR are based on a per hectare basis. Input Phase Input data for TAPAFOR are separated into three sets: 1. Forest data. 2. Management-decision variables. 3. Financial variables. The data must be provided by the user on an inter- active system. A general description of the execution of the input data is given in TAPAFOR's User's Manual in Appendix E. In the implementation of the above input phases, subroutines SCREEN, COVER, and TABLIE are used. Subroutine SCREEN The subroutine reads the initial density of trees in each DBH cl rates. The s 1. F0: cl ta ev nu 79 each DBH class as well as generates intermediate density rates. The steps listed below are followed: 1. Forest Input Data. The program accomodates 15 DBH classes and three initial species groups: expor- table, locally commercial, and non-commercial. For every DBH class in each group of species, the number of trees has to be provided. The subroutine then reads and allocates intermediate density rates according to mathematical model 5, in Chapter IV. The initial number of seedlings provid-' ed by the user, if not actually known, must be between 50 and 150. This is due to the assumption that the forest is in equilibrium, with few seeds germinating. Another factor will be the delay in tree diameter change,' and the subroutine will allocate proportional numbers in stages at the initial condition. The area of the stand must be provided; otherwise, a stochastic value is generated. Management decision variables. This set of variables includes the initial cutting intensity and stand treatment. Treatments are classified as: 1) Natural regeneration. 2) Line plantation with natural regeneration. 3) Enrichment planting with natural regeneration. 4) Close plantation. In the case of Treatments 1, 2 and 3, an initial 80 cutting intensity from 1 to 100 percent has to be specified. With a close plantation option, the program will execute a clearcutting. 3. Financial variables. The price and cost variables for each operation are pre-set in the program as described previously. The interest rate for discounting future costs and revenues is the additional financial input variable to be provided by the user. Fig. 10 presents the integration of these phases in a gross logical flowchart for subroutine SCREEN. Subroutine COVER This subroutine generates a stochastic area, at the user's option, based on a normal distribution of random numbers (Fig. 11). The main objective is to give flexibi- lity to TAPAFOR when used for educational purposes. A mean of 10 hectares and standard deviation of 1.5 hectares for each stand. is assumed, since an exact variation is not available. A small area of 10 ha .is proposed with the objective of minimizing the risk of applying an equivocal treatment to the stand, or unexpected results. An area from .01 to 20 percent is expected to be classified as non- productive forest. A random number is generated and then subtracted from the previously calculated area. FiQUre 10. ( 81 SUBROUTINE SCREEN NUMBER OF TREES BY DBH CLASS STORAGE AREA / BASED ON Y COVER PROB . \ \ N [ LI uma j i CUTTING /// / INTENSITY i Z/ INTEREST ///7 Rmm unmm :> END Figure 10. Gross logical flowchart for subroutine SCREEN 82 SUBRODTINE COVER RANDOM NORMAL DISTRIBUTION TABLIE l NON PRODUCTIVE. FOREST RETURN END Figure 11. Gross logical flowchart for subroutine COVER Subr0t 1 ting number 00.:an The ar 1y spa normal interp will i value Callin Variab the £0 N0rmal The f. aIOng The s. only initia main output 83 Subroutine TABLIE TAPAFOR uses the table look-up function for interpola- ting values in a normal distribution based on a random number. As stated by Llewellyn (1965): The TABLIE function stands for a Table look-up subroutine in which the value returned to the calling program is limited to be within a pre- determined range and in which the elements of the array are equally spaced. The array utilized here ranges from -3.65 to +3.65 in equal— ' 1y spaced intervals of .25, being constituted in a standard normal distribution. The input which is the basis of the interpolation is a number between 0 and l. The output value will be in units of the array utilized, in this case, a value of Y from -3.65 to +3.65. Any part of this program calling TABLIE to generate a standard normal stochastic variable will utilize the Y returned value from TABLIE in the following way: Normal stochastic variable = Mean : Y(Standard Deviation) The TAPAFOR program offers two options to the user. The first one will print the general or detailed output along with inquiries about management decisions each year. The second one will provide output and referred inquiry only in the years to be specified by the user. After initial harvesting, the input phase is controlled by the main program, which consists practically of the desired output and a prescribed harvesting or silvicultural treatment as specified in Appendix E. 84 Output Phase The opportunities for using a forest to produce sawlogs for income considerations lets the user determine production over time by controlling the allowable cut. To provide guides for action based on output, two options are available to the user in each year, OUTPUT l, and OUTPUT 2. Subroutine OUTPUT 1 This subroutine provides a detailed output of the stand data if selected during the simulation period (Fig. 12). The functions of this subroutine are to calculate the total present net value from values of subroutine NETVAL, and to print labels and variables calculated in other components of TAPAFOR. The variables are: 1. Year after first harvest. 2. Total basal area before growth per hectare. 3. Total mortality per hectare at referred year. 4. Present net worth per hectare. 5. Accumulated removed value per hectare. 6. Residual stand present net value per hectare. 7. Total present net value per hectare. In addition the subroutine provides a table for storage of stand data by DBH class and treatment. Subroutine OUTPUT 2 Subroutine OUTPUT 2 in its present form provides a 85 SUBROUTINE OUTPUT 1 l YEAR BASAL AREA \ K TOTAL MORTALITY PRESENT NET WORTH RESIDUAL AND TOTAL VALUES RESIDUAL STAND TABLE \ RETURN /\ END Figure 12. Gross logical flowchart for subroutine OUTPUT l 86 general output when selected (Fig. 13). Variables are - printed in the following sequence: 1. Year after first harvest. 2. Present net worth per hectare. 3. Residual stand present net value per hectare. 4. Total present net value per hectare. 5. Total trees with minimum 15 cm DBH per hectare. 6. Total number of commercial trees with minimum 15 cm DBH. 7. Total number of commercial trees with minimum 45 cm DBH . It executes the main calculations for the printout of the above variables except for the first three. Harvesting Subsystem Harvesting operations are performed on a one-hectare basis at the beginning of the simulation run and can be specified by the user any time after the third year after initial disturbance. Subroutine REMOVE simulates timber harvests and provides the basic information for calcula- tions of revenue per hectare from the stand. Subroutine REMOVE This subroutine harvests trees from the forest stand according to the cutting regime selected by the user. If only part of the stand is to be harvested, the percentage 87 SUBROUTINE OUTPUTZ U YEAR NET ///F PRESENT SIDUAL AND TOTAL PRESENT VALUE OF STAN TOTAL NUMBER OF RESIDUAL L TREES RESIDUAL NUMBER OF COMERCIAL TR {ES RETURN '> I END Figure 13. Gross logical flowchart for subroutine OUTPUT 2 88 of cut per hectare needs to be specified in the input phase. The program records harvest volume and residual stand volume in order to calculate the cash flow associated with the harvesting operations, as well as logging inten— sity to determine damages to the residual stand. The basic steps in this subroutine as presented in Figure 14 are as follows: 1. Calculate basal area before harvesting. 2. Calculate volume to be removed. 3. Cut the stand. 4. Calculate basal area after harvesting. 5. Calculate logging intensity. Logging intensity as computed by mathematical model. 4 in Chapter IV will determine the range of the proportional loss rate of damage because of the harvesting process (Table 2). Economic Subsystem Revenues are a function of cutting intensity, the volume of timber removed, unit value of the final product, and silvicultural and harvest costs incurred during the management period. The economic feasibility of harvesting a stand will be presented by values from subroutine NETVAL. It will give the user some indications as to the economic attractiveness of harvesting the stand under various treat- ments and market conditions. 89 SUBROUTINE REMOVE TREATMENT C. INTENSITY YEAR TOTAL BASAL AREA TOTAL VOLUME REMOVED SET FLAG FOR CUT I Inc- INTENSITY V RETURN END Figure 14. Gross logical flowchart for subroutine REMOVE 9O Subroutine NETVAL The basic function of this subroutine is to calculate the present net worth according to operations previously executed. If no operation has taken place, a cost of main- tenance is computed. A flag at the beginning of the program will indicate the incurred procedure. Fig. 15 presents a gross logical flowchart of subroutine NETVAL based on the following steps: “ 1. Check if non-commercial thinning was executed. 2. Check if harvesting or silviculture was executed. 3. Calculate revenue from the operation. 4. Calculate cost for the operation. 5. Calculate cost for maintenance if no operation was executed. 6. Calculate present net worth. 7. Calculate present value of the residual stand based on its sawlog volume. Growth Subsystem The development of individual stand. characteristics over time is simulated by the integration of subroutines GROWTH 1 and GROWTH 2, subroutine DELICT and subroutine LOSS. Natural and artificial regeneration is simulated by the GROWTH l subroutine. The increment of DBH in the stand is executed by DELICT, and the proportional loss rate according to the operation executed as specified by subroutine DELICT is executed by subroutine LOSS. 91 SUBROUTINE NETUAL OF EXECUTED OPERATION PRESENT COST OF OPERATION I PRESENT REVENUE OF OPERATION PRESENT ‘ NET WORTH RESIDUAL STAND PRESENT VALUE RETURN ::> END Figure 15. Gross logical flowchart for subroutine NETVAL 92 Subroutines GROWTH l and GROWTH 2 These subroutines as presented in Fig. 16 provide the basic requirements for the DELICT subroutine and record the structural change of the stand. The predicted annual changes stand, trees, in the delay rate, based on the density of the the input from natural regeneration of standing and loss boundary indications are the basic func- tions of these subroutines. The difference between them is that subroutine GROWTH 2 simulates a planted stand under a close plantation technique, and its regeneration. Subrou- tine GROWTH 1 monitors the natural regeneration of export- able, local commercial, and non-commercial species groups, as well as enrichment and/or line plantation treatments. In general, 1. they follow the procedure below: Calculate total number of trees and basal area before growth. Change delay. Calculate number of trees with DBH greater than 45 cm. Calculate input for DELICT. Indicate loss boundaries. Call LOSS and DELICT. Calculate total mortality. Calculate basal area after growth. To accomplish the DELICT subroutine requirements for stability, small proportions (.01) are subtracted from the 93 SUBROUTINE GROWTH 1-2 / SEEDLINGS FROM NATURAL REGENERATION nacrmm OPERATION Ex: uzgo PROPORTIONAL LOSS RATE LOSS / \ GROWTH DELICT RETURN END Figure 16. Gross logical flowchart for subroutines GROWTH l and GROWTH 2 94 delay mean time for each DBH class over a year, if no real change occurs in density or basal area. Subroutine LOSS Reductions in residual stand density caused during or after any operation are computed by subroutine LOSS, which generates a value from a probability distribution with a specified mean and variance. The constant use of probabili- ty in TAPAFOR is necessary because of a lack of specific, actual information. As pointed out by Freeman (1979), probability is a language for dealing with subjective estimates in a consistent and logical manner, and it can be interpreted consistently by others. By considering a biological system's normal distribu- tion, subroutine LOSS utilizes the TABLIE function to generate a stochastic variable called Proportional Loss Rate (PLR) based on a.normal distribution. This subroutine will reduce the stand density by means of storage losses in the course of the delay process. Fig. 17 presents the general functions of subroutine LOSS. Subroutine DELICT As presented in Fig. 18, subroutine DELICT simulates a Kth order distributed delay where DIL is the mean lag time for each DBH class change and specified treatment. Accretions or negative losses in the intermediate rates are not considered in this program. The K-stages utilized in SUBROUTINE LOSS MEAN Loss RATE FOR DBH CLASS 5 STANDARD DEVIATION RANDOM NORMAL DISTRIBUTION PROPORTIONAL LOSS RATE FOR DBH CLASS 5 RETURN > ' Figure 17. Gross logical flowchart for subroutine LOSS 96 SUBROUTINE DELICT DIL SUB INTERVAL OF DT LENGTH RATE OUT THE i STAGE STORAGE TOTAL LOSS RETURN END Figure 18. Gross logical flowchart for subroutine DELICT 97 this subroutine as presented in Table 3 are large so that the distribution will appro‘ximate a normal distribution. The intermediate. storages are calculated based on the integration of a differential input/output process over time in a specified interval DT. The DBH class storage in that interval is based on the sum of intermediate storage times the specified delay divided by its order: In the DELICT subroutine, the delay times, DIL, may vary over time, storage losses may occur in the course of the delay, and/or finer time cycles may be required for Stability and non-negative flow assurances. In TAPAFOR, the proportional loss rate and delay rate (DIL) will vary over time; then the subdivision of interval DT by DELICT may vary over time, and will include a margin of safety for stability and non-negative flow, according to Abkin and Wolf (1980) . Silvicultural Subsystem The main purpose of a silvicultural treatment is to guarantee the regeneration of stands that have been harvested, by artificial and/or natural regeneration prescription. The appropriate treatment, according to user specification, will be effectuated by subroutine PRESCR, 98 and must rely on ecological requirements for the regenera- tion of commercial species, environmental management, and management efficiency, based on local observations. Subroutine PRESCR This subroutine will provide the basic calculations for input in the growth system when artificial regeneration is to be used (Fig. 19). It will execute a non-commercial thinning five years after initial disturbance, if no other treatment takes place and the total number of trees per hectare exceeds 300. The basic approach by PRESCR is as follows: 1. Check year and commercial density of stand. 2. Check if artificial regeneration is to be execut- ed. 3. Calculate the number of trees to be planted under artificial regeneration. 4. Check if non-commercial thinning is to be done and executes it. 5. Calculate new density if non-commercial thinning was executed. This subroutine provide the basic information for calcula- tion by subroutine NETVAL of costs involved in artificial regeneration and non-commercial thinning. 99 SUBROUTINE PRESCR. / DESIRED PRESCRIPTION NEW DENSITY TREES TO BE. PLANTED Figure 19. Gross logical flowchart for subroutine PRESCR 100 Operation Requirements Inmany cases, the performance of a simulation model implies that a number of important operational conditions are pre-set or under control. There are cases in which the duration of the simulation run is not an essential issue. In terms of accuracy, the amount of information that can be derived from simulation is not restricted by time or by the number of runs. Restrictions may be induced by economic considerations or by other practical limitations. The observation time is restricted, either through economic necessity or for fundamental engineering reasons. Then, estimations have to be performed under specified operating conditions. TAPAFOR is written in FORTRAN IV language and. was implemented on the CDC Cyber 170, Model 750 at the Michigan State University Computer Center. The program itself requires 1.876 CP seconds of compilation time. In running the program, the needed memory capacity depends on how much the user requires from it. The output in normal operation, over a 30-year simulation period, with six output years under Option 2, without using all the alternatives of this model required: CP use -- 4.630 seconds PP use -- 99.289 seconds CP use -- 7.396 W—H CT use -- .244 hrs 101 It should be observed that slight modification may be necessary before TAPAFOR can be used with other computer systems. Appendix F presents the source listing. Validation of TAPAFOR Validation of a model has been extensively discussed in simulation literature. A model must not only contain sound data when it is run, but it must also be sound structurally. Before a model can be used it must be tested to see that it conforms to the system for which it was designed. Since real systems operate dynamically in time, simulation models must be tested to insure that they behave in the same way. In essence it requires an examination of . the outputs‘of the simulation model in comparison to those for the real world system in order to assess the agreement between the two. Unfortunately, lack of available data prevented the undertaking of an evaluation of the TAPAFOR model with conventional statistical testing (i.e., chi- square). The real world data necessary for such an evalua- tion will require the passage of time and much inventory effort, and hence is not immediately' available for the Tapajos National Forest. My validation has consisted, in part, of a comparison of the model results with data for other tropical regions, and a calibration of components. TAPAFOR needs to be throughly reviewed before it can play an effective role in Amazon forest management in 102 Brazil. It can be used as an effective planning tool if the planner is willing to accept the assumptions used. As more data are accumulated for forest treatment responses in the Tapajos region, more comprehensive validation can be undertaken. CHAPTER VI MODEL EVALUATION Indentifying Research Needs In modeling the Tapajos National Forest management system with the objective of permanent forest production, it became very clear that most of the available data are very inadequate and inappropriate. More specific knowledge of tropical forest management is lacking. A great deal of qualitative information is presented in many reports, but they are generally' devoid of quantitative data. In the TAPAFOR design process, important results can be demonstrat- ed where more research is urgently needed with emphasis on quantification of information and relationships, in order to improve\the reliability of the model. Weaknesses of the simulation model essentially identify further needed deve- lopmental work. The following areas have been identified where priority work is needed: 1. Changes in stand density by natural regeneration. 2. Harvesting techniques related to stand damage and regeneration. 3. Seed and seedling availability, and their morta- lity. 4. Ideal stand basal area to maximize productivity. 103 104 5. Response of species to various cutting intensities and treatments. 6. Operable and inoperable forest areas. 7. Growing stock: tree and stand growth; cutting regime and intensity with quantitative relation- ships of growth to stand density and composition, climate, and silvicultural practices. 8. Quantitative relationships of species, stand density, site characteristics, and climatic conditions necessary for more intensive management and simulation purposes. 9. Normal mortality; permanent plots, remeasured .periodically, to accumulate mortality data. 10. Provision for accumulation of information on operational costs and revenues as well as the inflation of various costs related to the input/ output process in the forest. 11. The response of non-stocked and poorly stocked lands to production by natural or artificial regeneration based upon site capability and coordination with other management objectives. Limitations of TAPAFOR The user will find flexibility in the utilization of TAPAFOR to accomplish the goal of managing the forest's potential yield of wood products. Clearly the accuracy of the results of the simulation model depends on two factors: 105 l. The authenticity of the model as a representative description of the tropical forest system. 2. The accuracy of the data input. The first of these problems, authenticity of the model, with the strengths and weaknesses of its individual compo- nents, is apparent from the documentation. In the second. aspect, there are many data inputs used in TAPAFOR that need to be revised. Costs, values, growth and mortality rates may be close to reality in the model, but they are not actual data. Simulation. models permit. evaluation of ideas and assumptions provided by the user, and therefore they are only as good as the information and data support- ing them. Obtaining accurate input data is a difficult problem, often underestimated or neglected. Assumed, common sense relationships and coefficients should be replaced with documentable data as soon as the latter are available. Immediate responses, those that occur once in the simu- lated year; responses over time, those that occur in more years than the one in which the aSsociated game decisions are made; and interrelated responses, the net result of more than one game decision, can be drawn from TAPAFOR. The model behavior has performed favorably in all tests to which it was submitted to evaluate its adequacy for use in conjunction with forest management simulation planning. The design approach and quantitative values utilized in this model are based on very meager data for the Tapajos 106 National Forest region. This lack of adequate data consti- tutes the main limitation of TAPAFOR. TAPAFOR in Forest Planning TAPAFOR permits close monitoring by the user during the simulation run. It prints out the development of the stand for each cycle, so that the suitability of the management system for development of the forest and maintaining the environment can be checked. In uneven-aged management, area control must be combined with volume control based on the growth potential of the stand. TAPAFOR will assist the user in deciding on an appropriate initial cutting regime and treatment for a specific stand, and use the selected cutting regime in the planning process. Advantages of TAPAFOR as a tool for forest planning can be cited as follows: 1. Provides for better understanding of the forest system by those who operate it. 2. Promotes complete analysis of the. operational factors, which can be expanded to great depths. 3. The model does not depend on an exclusive alterna— tive, in order to prescribe regeneration. A complete range of variables, as well as their relationships for future analysis, can be uti— lized. 4. An emphasis on sequences of actions over time permits new concepts to be included in the model. 107 5. It recognize short, intermediate and long term consequences; hence, it operates in a projection mode. 6. The design recognizes superior alternatives as products of creative search as well as synthesis and assembly. TAPAFOR can contribute substantially to the forest planning process. Once the management decisions regarding allocations have been made, the model can help to prescribe the best cultural treatment from among those known to be biologically sound for use in the Tapajos National Forest. The model can be used to simulate creative alternatives. There should be some evaluation process in conjunction with the exercise to suggest which alternatives generated; justify further analysis. The consequences of decisions made, the relationships between decisions made and the resulting consequences, the interrelationships among deci- sions, and the interrelationships among consequences are concerns that can be addressed by TAPAFOR in the planning process. TAPAFOR is a gaming-simulation exercise, which capitalizes on the best use of both people and computers, by having people make decisions and computers make repeti- tious calculations (Countryman 1973). TAPAFOR was explicitly prepared to appraise the pros and cOns of a management proposal for the Tapajos National Forest and to best orient the forest management prescrip- tion process. It provides for understanding the relevant 108 factors and of the ways they interact; it predicts the possible consequences of alternative actions; and it assists in the selection of the best path to the desired goal. TAPAFOR is not a substitute for management judgment, but an aid. It is not a substitute for intuition; rather, it helps to channel it. A formal evaluation of the model in the planning process will come from future forest res- ponses, with testing and verification. An Application of TAPAFOR In timber management, a harvest regime is often sought which will satisfy two objectives. First, it should produce a constant periodic harvest without depleting the growing stock. Second, the harvest should be such that it will maximize the volume produced per unit of time, or in economic terms, maximize the present value of production assuming adequate prices and interest rate (Buongiorno 1980). To establish any given harvest schedule, it is necessary to clarify the essential concepts of supply and demand to be utilized. As sustained yield is the purpose of managing the Tapajos National Forest, a decline in supply is not expected. At this point it is assumed that the current demand for timber is the current annual harvested volume, and the current supply as the harvestable surplus under the current management strategy. A discount rate of 10 percent will be utilized here as a reasonable rate, based on t‘. interest I: Two applicatio Both of 1 will have Commercia inventory available are as f0 1. SPECific informat range : 109 based on the relationship between "breakeven stumpage" and interest rate presented by Fraser (1978). Two parameters are considered essential in the application of TAPAFOR: 1. Commercial volume available to cut, per hectare. 2. Number of commercial trees per hectare with DBH less than 45 cm. Both of these parameters in the initial forest condition will have a direct effect on the forest change process. Commercial volume available to cut was estimated from inventory data in the literature since no specific data are available for the Tapajos National Forest. These estimates are as follows: 1. An average basal area of 20 square meters per hectare. 2. An average maximum commercial volume available to cut of 40 cubic meters per hectare. 3. An average ndnimum commercial volume available to cut of 14 cubic meters per hectare. Specific data for the number of commercial trees with DBH less than 45 cm are not available either, so approximate information taken from the literature shows the following range: A 1. An average minimum of 10 commercial trees per hectare with DBH less than 45 cm. 2. An he: Based tics, four represent follows: 1:. 1- Commer m3 per (DBH c 2' Numbe With per h 3' 338a: tree: 4. Basa Si] val-ions 110 2. An average maximum of 50 commercial trees per hectare with DBH less than 45 cm.. Based. on 'various combinations of these characteris- tics, four different stand conditions are assumed to represent conditions in the Tapajos National Forest as follows: Parameters Stand number 1. Commercial volume in 1113 per ha (DBH greater than 45 cm) 40 l4 14 40 2. Number of commercial trees with DBH less than 45cm per ha 10 50 10 50 3. Basal area of commercial trees in m2 per ha 5.94 4.57 2.41 8.10 2 4. Basal area per ha in m 20 20 20 20 Silvicultural. prescriptions to be 'utilized. ‘with various intensities of logging in commercial trees will be as follows All I We: 30 YQ iEd- Thre. each cuttj TO t Preseriptj ments will 10' w1th . 111 .as follows: Prescriptions Cutting Intensity of Commercial Trees 1. Natural regeneration 70 percent 2. Natural regeneration 100 percent 3. Enrichment planting with natural regeneration ' 70 percent 4. Enrichment planting with natural regeneration 100 percent 5. Line plantation with natural regeneration 70 percent 6. Line plantation with natural regeneration 100 percent All prescriptions will be applied at Year 1 and extend over 30 years for the four stands, unless otherwise specif- ied. Three different cutting cycles will be connected with each cutting intensity: Years of Cut 1. 0 - 30 2. 0 - 15 - 30 3. 0 - 10 - 20 - 30 To test the versatility of TAPAFOR for variations in Prescriptions specified by the user, two additional treat- ments will be tested. First, an enrichment planting in Year 10: with a cut of 100 percent of the commercial trees with DBH great 7). Secor in the f be execu' final val The intensiti follows : Treatmeni 1 hat] 2 flat] 3 enr. 4 enr 5 lin. 5 lin 7 flat 3 nat enr lo enr ll 12 lin lin 13 “at 14 Data 112 DBH greater than 45 cm at Year 0 and Year 30 (Prescription 7). Second, a clearcutting at Year 0 and a close plantation in the following year (Prescription 8). No more cuts will be executed under a close plantation alternative, but the final value will be tested after the 30-year period. The various combinations of prescriptions, cutting intensities and cutting cycles result in 20 treatments as follows : Treatment number Combinations 1 natural regeneration - CI = 70% at Years 0 and 30 2 -natural regeneration - CI = 100% at Years 0 and 30 3 enrichment planting - CI = 70% at Years 0 and 30 100% at Years 0 and 30 4 enrichment planting - CI line plantation - CI = 70% at Years 0 and 30 6 line plantation - CI = 100% at Years 0 and 30 7 natural regeneration - CI = 70% at Years 0, 15 and 30 8 natural regeneration - CI = 100% at Years 0, 15 and 30 9 enrichment planting - CI = 70% at Years 0, 15 and 30 10 enrichment planting - CI = 100% at Years 0, 15 and 30 11 line plantation - CI = 70% at Years 0, 15 and 30 12 line plantation - CI = 100% at Years 0, 15 and 30 13 natural regeneration CI = 70% at Years 0, 10, 20 and 30 14 natural regeneration CI = 100% at Years 0, 10, 20 and 30 15 enrich] 16 enrich: 17 line p 18 line r: 19 enrich 20 close The I over a 30. presented Constraint tAl'ealunent: Period. All 1 Yield bas Optimum V Percent i Planting annual ha ment Dla M91) t1 treatmeht Percen,c 10, 20 ' c" Present 1 113 15 enrichment planting - CI = 70% at Years 0, 10, 20 and 30 16 enrichment planting - CI = 100% at Years 0, 10, 20 and 30 70% at Years 0, 10, 20 and 30 17 line plantation - CI 100% at Years 0, 1o, 20 and 30 18 line plantation - CI 19 enrichment planting at Year 10 - CI = 100% at Years 0 and 30 20 close plantation - clear cutting at Year 0 The results of applying TAPAFOR to the four stands (over a 30-year period for the 20 treatment combinations are presented in Tables 5, 6, 7 and 8. Due to budget and time constraints in this study, the number of trials for each 1Ereatment in each stand was limited to one over the 30-year period. All treatments were to bring the forest to a sustained yield basis, including those which showed optimum results. Optimum volume removed over 30 years resulted from a 100 percent intensity cut at Years 0 and 30 and an enrichment Planting at _ Year 1. Volume is maximized if a constant annual harvest is not maintained. The advantage of enrich- Ineent planting over the line plantation was small even tl‘xough the enrichment planting has less stand damage at 'tareatment implementation. Optimum PNW has been met with 100 Percent intensity cutting of commercial trees at Years 0, 10, 20, and 30, and a line plantation at Year 1. 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CHCUOCB QOdUQ H0010:- Ia0I> 000.000 0Iu0h IIOI> 0Iav0uol 3 a a 0IIIn mI000III IIIOO> 0¢uOH \ I :0 QI>OII¢ IIIOO> I0uowoum aIIIuIIuh 0 .m0moo ououoon non .oo0uom umomncm m uo>o umouom 0mco0umz moflmmma on» :0 0 ocmum on moO0uOC0oEoo usofiuoouu 00 0:000QQM mo 000smom .0 O0ooe 118 trees every 10 years. In jpractice, line jplantation. may present an advantage over enrichment planting when PNW is maximized because the planting is concentrated, permitting more control of the valuable species. Optimum residual stand value and basal area, without a close plantation option, occurs with a 70 percent cutting intensity of commercial trees at Years 0 and 30, and enrichment planting at Year 1. A similar result was obtained by line plantation over the same cutting cycle and cutting intensity. If the cutting‘ intensity' is decreased. and the cycle of cut is increased, with line or enrichment planting, an excellent residual stand will be left. Natural regeneration has produced reasonable results. However, natural regeneration is decreased when cutting occurs at Years 0, 10, 20, and 30, because of the frequent interference in the forest growth process. The average volume removed per hectare per year, for the entire forest and all treatments, ranges from one cubic meter to nine cubic meters. In general, the results of applying TAPAFOR to the four stands in the Tapajos National Forest are favorable. Thus, management of the Tapajos National Forest along guidelines and treatments indicated in the simulation model appears feasible. A Proposed Plan In the results obtained by using TAPAFOR, the struc-Q- tural changes in the forest have resulted as a reaction of 119 the forest to applied management practices. Thus the simula- tion model can be an invaluable tool in management.planning in this forest. The proposed plan which follows has been prepared for the whole forest, with the assumption that it is made up of the four stands described earlier. The total area of the forest to be managed is consider- ed to be 170,000 hectares. As no data are available about area distribution by forest cover types, the four stands are assumed to have the following areas: Stand 1 = 45,000 ha Stand 2 = 40,000 ha Stand 3 55,000 ha Stand 4 30,000 ha TOTAL 3 170,000 ha The objective in the proposed plan is to maximize the following variables: 1. Present net worth. 2. Total removed volume over the period. 3. Residual stand volume. They will be analyzed separately, and the results will be by considered as different maximization objectives for the 30-year planning horizon. 120 Present Net Worth Maximization The objective here is to maximize the total present worth value over the planning horizon, subject to an acceptable residual stand basal area and value. In doing so, it is assumed that the demand for timber is perfectly elastic within the specified range of volumes removed. Constraints can vary according to user option. Appendix G presents the source listing of program OPTIMUM developed for these analyses. The following criteria for any four treatment combinations for the four stands have been established: 412%.“). x. Max NPV 1 Where i = stand number j a treatment alternative Nij = present net worth per hectare when stand i is managed according to alternative j X. = number of hectares in stand i NPV = Net Present Worth over the 30-year simulation period. 121 Constraints include the following: 1. 2; 2%. xi ............... < 7 mB/ha/year 2. 22v. x i j 13 i --------------- > 4 m3/ha/year AREA 3, 4:: §Baij xi ---------------- > 24 m3/ha/year AREA 4. E1: Egnsvij xi ---------------- > CR$ 7,000/ha AREA Where Vij = volume removed per year per hectare according to i and j xi = area in hectares for the stand i AREA = total area of the forest w m. ll Ij residual basal area in mz/ha according to i and j RSVij = stand discounted residual value/hectare according to i and j Results with the above constraints show the following best combinations: 1. Considering close plantation in the analysis: Stand 1 = treatment 18 122 Stand 2 treatment 20 Stand 3 = treatment 18 Stand 4 = treatment 20 2. Excluding the close plantation option: Stand 1 = treatment 18 Stand 2 = treatment 18 Stand 3 = treatment 17 Stand 4 = treatment 18 It is apparent that frequent harvests from the forest (treatment 18) will have a maximum PNW. Clearcutting with close plantation (treatment 20) offers a good second choice to treatment 18. Sensitivity analysis involves the change of a cons- traint value used in the original analysis, and holding the other values constant. The idea behind such perturbation is to assess the effect of each constraint on the best treat- ment combination for the forest. In applying sensitivity analysis to PNW, four input values will be changed: 1. Stand area 2. Minimum residual basal area 3. Minimum residual stand value 4 . Maximum and minimum volume to be removed. 123 Areas of the four stands were changed as follows: From _ To Stand 1 = 45,000 ha 60,000 ha Stand 2 = 40,000 ha 30,000 ha Stand 3 = 55,000 ha 20,000 ha Stand 4 = 30,000 ha 60,000 ha For these changed stand areas, PNW was maximized as follows: 1. Including cloSe plantation in the analysis: Stand 1 = treatment 18 Stand 2 = treatment 20 Stand 3 = treatment 18- Stand 4 = treatment 20 2. Excluding the close plantation option: Stand 1 = treatment 18 Stand 2 treatment 17 Stand 3 = treatment 19 Stand 4 = treatment 18 With the inclusion of the close plantation option in the analysis, the results did not change. Excluding the close plantation option changes the optimal treatment for Stands 2 and 3. Details of determining the best stand area distribution to maximize PNW are presented in Appendix H. Minimum residual basal area was changed from 24 m per hectare to 27 m2 124 per’ hectare. PNW was maximized as follows: 1. Including Stand Stand Stand Stand 2. Excluding Stand Stand Stand Stand 2 With this change the close plantation option in the analysis: 1 2 3 4 the treatment 18 treatment 20 treatment 18 treatment 20 close plantation option: treatment 18 treatment 17 treatment 18 treatment 15 There were no changes when the close plantation option was included , ‘was excluded. Minimum residual and a change for Stands 2, stand value was 3 and 4 when it changed from CR$ '7,000.00 to CR$ 10,000.00. Maximum PNW's were as follows: 1. Including analysis: Stand Stand Stand Stand #WNH the close plantation treatment 18 treatment 20 treatment 18 treatment 20 option in the 125 2. Excluding the close plantation option: Stand 1 = treatment 18 Stand 2 = treatment 17 Stand 3 = treatment 17 Stand 4 = treatment 18 Only the result for Stand 2 changed with the exclusion of the close plantation option; otherwise, the results were the same. The maximum and minimum volumes to be removed were also changed as follows: Maximum from 7 m3/year/ha to 5 m3/year/ha Minimum from 4 m3/year/ha to 3 m3/year/ha Results maximizing PNW were as follows; 1. Including the close plantation option in' the analysis: Stand 1 = treatment 18 Stand 2 = treatment 20 Stand 3 = treatment 17 Stand 4 = treatment 20 2. Excluding the close plantation option: Stand 1 = treatment 14 Stand 2 = treatment 17 Stand 3 = treatment 18 Stand 4 = treatment 14 126 With the inclusion of the close plantation option, only the result for Stand 3 changed, and its exclusion changed the results for all stands in favor of natural regeneration. Removed Volume Maximization The total removed volume from the forest will be maximized as follows: " MaxVR=Z 2m. x. i j I] 1 Where VR = volume removed from the forest in cubic meters over the 30-year period Vij = total removed volume according to stand i and treatment j X. = area of stand i (in hectares) Subject to: 11. Z: 2: Bai xi ----------------- > 24 m 2/ha AREA 2. ZZRSV.. xi i j ................. > CR$ 7,000.00 AREA 3. ZEN“ i j ................. > CR$ 60,000.00/ha AREA 127 Where Baij = Residual basal area in mZ/ha according to i and j RSVij = Stand discounted residual value/hectare according to i and j Nij = Present Net Worth by hectare according to Stand i and treatment j For the initial conditions, the volume removed. was _.|-.9 '7 maximized with the following combinations: Stand 1 = treatment 4 Stand 2 = treatment 3 Stand 3 = treatment 4 Stand 4 = treatment 4 Including or excluding the close plantation option did not result in any differences in the results. For sensitivity analysis, the same stand area changes as used in PNW showed the following as the best combi- nations: Stand 1 = treatment 4 Stand 2 = treatment 3 Stand 3 treatment 3 Stand 4 treatment 4 128 In changing the minimum desired residual basal area/hectare from 24m2 to 27 m2, the results become: Stand 1 treatment 4 Stand 2 treatment 3 Stand 3 = treatment 4 Stand 4 = treatment 3 When the minimum. desired residual stand values is changed from CR$ 7,000.00 to CR$ 10,000.00, the best stand treatment combinations become: Stand 1 = treatment 3 Stand 2 = treatment 3 Stand 3 = treatment 4 Stand 4 = treatment 4 It appears that treatments 3 and 4 will give the maximum total removed volume from the forest. Residual Stand Value Maximization The goal here is to maximize the residual forest value over the 30-year period: Max RSV =2: 2 sv.. x. . . 13 1 1 3 Where SVij = discounted residual forest value according to stand i and treatment j. 129 X. = area of stand i in hectares Subject to: 11. Z: 2: Bai Xi ----------------- > 24 m 2/ha AREA 2. 2 Z N. i j ---------------- > CR$ 60,000.00/ha AREA 3. Z 2 vi]. xi 3 l j < 7 m /ha/year AREA > 4 m3/ha/year Where Baij = Residual basal area in m2 according to Stand i and j Nij = Present Net Worth according to Stand 1 and j by hectare Vij = Volume removed per year per hectare according to Stand i and treatment j In maximizing the residual stand value, the following results were obtained: 1. Including‘ the close plantation option in the analysis: Stand 1 = treatment 20 Stand 2 = treatment 4 Stand 3 = treatment 20 Stand 4 = treatment 3 2. Excluding the close plantation option: Stand 1 = treatment 3 130 Stand 2 treatment 3 Stand 3 = treatment 3 Stand 4 treatment 3 When the cutting intensity is decreased and the frequency of cut is reduced, a more valuable residual stand results. In applying the same changes as before for sensitivity analysis in the residual stand value, the following best combinations were obtained when the stand areas were changed: 1. Including the close plantation option in the analysis: Stand treatment 20 Stand' treatment 20 1 Stand 2 = treatment 20 3 Stand 4 = treatment 10 2. Excluding the close plantation option: Stand 1 = treatment 3 Stand 2 = treatment 3 Stand 3 treatment 19 Stand 4 treatment 3 Stand area. changes significantly influence the best treatment combinations for maximizing residual stand value. When minimum residual basal area des ired/hectare was changed from 24 m2/ha to 27 m2/ha, the best treatment combinations were: 1. Including analysis: Stand Stand Stand Stand 2. Excluding Stand Stand Stand Stand 131 the close plantation option in the h u» 0: +0 II the 0 u: 0: rd 1 treatment 20 treatment 4 treatment 20 treatment 3 close plantation option: treatment 3 treatment 3 treatment 3 treatment 3 Changes in the minimum basal area did not significant- ly affect the residual stand value. If the maximum and minimum volumes removed per hectare per year are changed as before, the best combinations become: 1. Including analysis: Stand Stand Stand Stand 2. Excluding Stand Stand the close plantation' option in the b u: R) F4 II II treatment 20 treatment 4 treatment 20 treatment 20 close plantation option: treatment 19 treatment 5 132 Stand 3 treatment 19 Stand 4 = treatment 5 Line plantation at Year 1 with a cutting intensity of 70 percent at Years 0 and 30 (Treatment 3) and enrichment planting at Year 10 with a cutting intensity of 100 percent at Years 0 and 30 (Treatment 4) are the best treatment combinations when the close plantation option is not considered. Treatment 19 is indicated as the treatment to be applied to stand 3 when PNW and residual stand value are to be maximized. The same is true for Stands 1 and 3 when residual stand value was maximized by varying the volume removed each year. Based on these results, it is evident that the year of applying a silvicultural treatment strongly influences the maximization results. Alternative investments for the revenues obtained from the first harvesting will improve the net worth maximization, since only at Year 10 will it be necessary to apply an enrichment 'planting in the forest. 133 In summary, without considering constraint variations, the following results have been obtained: With close plantation Without close plantation Stand number Stand number Variable Maximized l 2 3 4 l 2 3 4 Treatment combination Treatment combination Present net worth 18 20 18 20 18 18 17 18 Volume removed 4 3 4 4 - 4 3 4 4 Residual stand value 20 4 20 3 3 3 3 3 By taking into consideration the above results, the following plan is suggested for the four stands: Stand 1: Cut 100 percent of the commercial trees with DBH greater than 45 cm at Years 0, 10, 20, and 30; make a line plantation at Year 1. Stand 2: Cut 70 percent of the commercial trees with DBH greater than 45 cm at Years 0 and 30: execute an enrichment planting at Year 1. Stand 3: Cut 100 percent of the commercial trees with DBH greater than 45 cm at Years 0 and 30; execute an enrichment planting at Year 1. 134 Stand 4: Treat the same as Stand 2. If the constraint variations are taken into considera- tion as presented in the sensitivity analysis, different treatment combinations will be indicated. The best treat- ment combination will depend on the variable maximized, the area of each stand, and other constraints. An acceptable combination to maximize the output of forest products and the residual forest value can be reached. Such an ideal plan can be drawn from TAPAFOR results based on treatment combinations, maximization requirements and knowledge of local conditions by the forest planner. CHAPTER VII SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS The Amazon region contains the largest tropical forest resource in the world. Exploitation of that. resource is expanding rapidly, but without significant planning for its continious production. In this region near Santarem, the Brazilian government has established the Tapajos National Forest, the nation's first national forest. It is to serve as a pilot project for the orderly management and develop- ment of the forest in the Amazon basin for multiple use and sustained yield. This study was made to establish a process for predict- ing the growth and yield of the Tapajos National Forest after harvesting operations, and to provide a planning model for managing the forest for continuous yield. Simula- tion was used as the process for developing that model. Because specific inventory’ and. growth data for the Tapajos National Forest are generally not available, reasonable assumptions based on tropical forest literature and local observation were used in building the model. As actual data for ‘the Tapajos become available with the passage of time, such data can be ‘used. to improve the applicability of the model. 135 136 The forest management simulation model which was prepared for the Tapajos National Forest is called TAPAFOR, and consists of one main program and twelve subroutines. Six subroutines simulate management activities, two simulate stand growth, one generates random variables, two generate output, and one interpolates numbers from a normal distribution. The major components of the main program and its subroutines are harvesting operations, silvicultural operations, growth prediction, and economic considerations. In planning for the Tapajos National Forest, the forest itself cannot be dealt with as an independent resource. The impacts of its management on the economics of the region and the nation must definitely be considered. Plans for improved forest. management ultimately' must be addressed within economic development goals designed to provide food, shelter, energy, raw materials, and many manufactured goods for domestic use and export. Decisions about how land shall be used should be based on a proper understanding of each different kind of land, its capabi- lity for different uses, and the constraints which must be observed if it is to be managed for productive purposes. Land capability for various uses should be assessed separately so that alternative patterns of development can be compared. Laws, regulations and policies on land use which will affect forest areas should be subjected to an environmental impact assessment before being implemented. While it is beyond the scope of this study to discuss alternative 137 regional and national goals for the Amazon basin, major forestry goals have been identified as follows: 1. Short term goals: a. Implement a forest management program for the Tapajos National Forest based on prescriptions discussed in this study. Create at least two more National Forests in the Amazon region for the parallel application of the recommended methodology to be utilized in the Tapajos National Forest so as to obtain a wider range of responses. Initiate action programs in forest research,~ information exchange, and technical assistance, along with the forest management program. Analyze the causes and rates of forest loss, including socio-economic factors, and the magnitude and trends of the impacts. Develop local and regional markets in coordination with regional plans. Apply improved nanagement methods to the wildlife resources in the forest. Activate a specific program to decrease Amazon forest depletion. 138 . 2. Long term goals: a. Undertake economic studies of the profitabi- lity of plantation operations, results of natural regeneration, and/or enrichment and line plantation (including TAUNGYA). b. Expand the application of management methods for sustained yield harvesting in the Amazon forest. c. Increase utilization of presently non- commercial species for wood products manufac- ture to meet future expanding consumer demands. d. Devote more publicly-owned forest areas to multiple use for wood and food production, biomedical products, wildlife, and other values. e. Encourage policies and laws for establishing forest planning priorities and improved institutions with management capabilities dedicated to sound forest resource management. f. Expand biosphere reserved and protected areas. Formulating a comprehensive management plan for a large wild land area such as the Tapajos National Forest requires the consideration of not only the above goals, but also many issues, demands, management strategies, and system responses. Such a plan must incorporate the require- ments of many regulations, must be responsive to public 139 issues and management concerns, and must utilize the best technical information available. Changes over time in forest management concerns and available technical informa- tion can be integrated in the TAPAFOR simulation model so as to broaden the future prespective required in any manage- ment planning procedure. Based on these considerations, the results of applying TAPAFOR to the Tapajos National Forest can be grouped into two major recommendations: 1. Long Range Plan: Treatment: Clear-cutting with close plantation Objective: Maximization of long-run timber output or rate of return to the land. Contraints: Available budget needed. to implement the treatments; subsequent. management costs; expected annual rate of return to the land; expected product output; area to be considered: best alterna- tive for the stand as part of the entire forest. Optional Treatment: Natural regeneration 2. Short Range Plan: Treatment: Line plantation with 70 percent cutting intensity and two or three harvests for some stands, and enrichment planting with 100 percent cutting intensity in the initial year in the other stands. 140 Objective: Maximization of discounted harvest income from existing stands or maximiza- tion of total timber yield during the conversion period. Constraints: Cutting cycle; area to be harvested; expected annual rate of return to the land; expected stumpage prices for each year of the conversion period. Short term management objectives can be guided by the TAPAFOR results, along' with spatial. distribution of the growing stock, and restrictions, if any, on the level of harvest and/or reforestation activities. Restrictions may need to. be imposed on the level of activities in order to ensure long-run sustained yield of timber. Management decisions in the Tapajos National Forest must consider the inherent low productivity of the forest when the number of harvests is increased over a period. The present net worth will be ‘maximized. with. more frequent harvests, but the quality' of the residual stand. may' be reduced. TAPAFOR results strongly suggest that where wood production must continue to have management priority, efficiency of utilization can be increased at least over the tested period, if alternative treatments are used for different stands based on initial stand quality and stock- ing. Small, irregularly-shaped. clearcut areas with close plantations are also an attractive management option for long term planning in low productive areas. 141 Determination of the best cycle on which a forest should be harvested is among the oldest and most important problems in forestry. At the outset, it is important to recognize that an optimum solution depends upon the objec- tives of management. 'The value of the forest can lie primarily in the wood produced or in the forest's aesthetic or recreational benefits, in erosion or run-off control, or as shelter for wildlife. For the Anazon region, maximiza- tion of the value of wood production may be the appropriate approach. Other benefits of the forest should be considered where they are significant. To avoid adverse consequences from wrong judgments in what the best harvest cycle is for the forest to ensure "long term productivity, the following precautionary measures are recommended for the Tapajos National Forest: 1. Harvesting: a. Harvesting equipment must be restricted. and used only where necessary to protect all resource values. b. Allowable harvests must be reviewed annually and adjusted. to assure that lands on which they are based are available and suitable for timber production. c. Both permanent and temporary roads should be used to facilitate harvesting. 2. Regulation: a. Cutting may be done to accomplish resource 142 management objectives specified in the plan. Cutting schedules may be revised through annual programming. Vegetation management activities must be scheduled to be carried out in seasons with reduced insect, fire and disease control problems. Failure to harvest some specified areas must not be compensated by additional cutting in other specified areas. Priorities: a. Non-stocked and poorly stocked stands must be brought into full production by natural means if possible, to reduce costs. Partial cuttings must achieve prescribed objectives. Treatments to accomplish stand improvement must vary depending upon the original local conditions. Planting stock characteristics must be matched closely with prescribed treatments to enhance planting success in adverse situations. Stand treatments may be modified to reduce the possibility of damage to water resources. Regeneration: a. The minimum stand area to be artificially regenerated for timber production is to be ten 143 hectares: however, other resource benefits may justify artificial regeneration of smaller areas. b. Utilization of seed or seedlings of exotic species should be restricted to those which have been proven 'adaptable to the area and capable of producing the kind and quality of trees desired. . 5. Utilization: a. Standards must be designed to obtain optimum utilization of the— timber designated for harvest. Penalties for lesser utilization may be stipulated. b. Market research and sales promotion are _§_i_n3 M {323 activities for the planned and improved utilization of the Amazon's forest resources . Planning for the Amazon forest must be a truly dynamic process for making the best possible continuing adjustments between man and his environment because of the necessity of meeting relatively uncertain needs in an expanding and open economy. Simulation, such as TAPAFOR, holds great promise for pre-testing the impact that new policies are likely to have on the forest for many years. However, the use of TAPAFOR requires specific data ‘and information, and these are a necessary prerequisite to better evaluate public investments in the Tapajos National Forest. 144 The methodology of this simulation model approach is available to anyone who wishes to use it--there is nothing mysterious about it. In its simplest form TAPAFOR is a process designed to guide the efficient management of the Tapajos National Forest. The approach. dictates that the user abide by three simple guidelines: 1. View the problem from a holistic focus, visualiz- ing the many influences that impinge upon it. 2. Pursue the problem in an eclectic and analytical manner, both quantitatively and qualitatively. 3. Search the 'universe' for better- alternatives than those used in the TAPAFOR approach. Calibration of TAPAFOR was achieved by successive runs with variations in the number of growth stages in each DBH class and other parameters. It. was found that residual stands were extremely sensitive to the length of the cutting cycle and cutting intensity, as well as the year that silvicultural treatments are applied. Results from the TAPAFOR simulation model appear reasOnable and consistent within the limits of current available knowledge. However, no forest stand in the Amazon region has been under sustained yield management in the past, and it is obvious that this simulation exercise extends beyond the limits of the available data base. Comparisons of estimates with actual field responses in the future will be needed to verify simulated responses. Basic results from TAPAFOR can be used as a starting point. 145 To improve TAPAFOR as a planning model for forests in the Amazon region, field experiments need to be conducted with precise techniques and specialized systems of the several disciplines. Technology and forest management can then be brought into harmonious relationships for sustained forest yields. Research needs are clear, and if forest management is to serve the public in the future, then those elements of forestry which the public values must quickly be discovered; the extent to which they are valued must be estimated; and the costs of obtaining these products and services must be determined. The major limitation of TAPAFOR as a planning tool is the lack of adequate data specific to the Tapajos National Forest. The tremendous potential of the Amazon forest is available for immediate exploitation, but exploitation without protection and reestablishment must be avoided to prevent total forest destruction. Research results are urgently needed for this- purpose. Alternative methods of transporting timber. from. the forest to the mill, transport costs, both by river and by road, the prices which could be obtained for the lesser known commercial species, and mill conversion are some studies to be undertaken. Natural regeneration as a basis for more effectiwe and economical silvicultural practices, species' growth rates, and natural and logging damages to native species are other aspects on which information is needed for TAPAFOR. 146 The optimization routine employed in this study has suggested that a balance can be maintained between retaining natural forest conditions from an ecological point of view, and converting the forest to more intensively managed stands to achieve higher timber production. The choice between. .natural. regeneration, enrichment or line plantation and close plantation after harvesting will depend on the objectives to be attained in the specific area. The proper delineation of the Tapajos National Forest into compartments and stands must await adequate inventory and mapping informationn The best. area. distribution for each stand to achieve maximization objectives was obtained, by an optimization process using OPTIMUM, a supplemental routine to TAPAFOR, with an algorithm called COMPLEX. Successful continuous natural systems will depend partly on the existing structure of the stand and particu- larly' on the amount and. quality’ of advance growth, but after any disturbance, felling damage and the availability of adequate see‘d sources of desirable species will become increasingly important. Results of the TAPAFOR simulation model have shown that immediate implementation of forest management operations in“ the Tapajos National Forest appears to be silviculturally and economically feasible, and should lead to more rational and more efficient use of the Amazon forest resource- TAPAFOR as a forest management planning tool will be improved as some of the many concepts 147 and techniques explored in this study are applied by the Brazilian government in the management of the Tapajos National Forest by skilled personnel. This should lead to more adequate infrastructural and economic development in the Amazon region and eventually all of Brazil. LITERATURE CITED LITERATURE CITED Abkin, M.H. and C. Wolf. 1980. A collection of notes and readings for SYS-814: Advanced Systems Methodo- logy and Simulation. Department of Electrical Engineering and System Science. Michigan State Univ. East Lansing. Mimeo. Ackoff, R.L. 1962. Scientific Method. Optimizing' Applied Research Decisions. 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Charcoal production from Eucalyptus in southern Bahia for iron and steel manufacture in Minas Gerais, Brazil. Ph.D. thesis. Michigan State Univ., East Lansing. Nor, S.M. 1977. A preliminary simulation model for forest stand management in Peninsular Malaysia. Ph.D. thesis. Michigan State Univ., East Lansing. Nye, P.H. 1961. Organic matter and nutrient cycles under moist tropical forest. Plant and Soil 13: 333-347. Olin, A.T. 1978. Ecological survey requirements and management implications for. Tapajos National Forest. TCP-Project. 06/BRA/05/I. FAO. Brasilia. Pandolfo, C. 1973. Estudos basicos para o estabelecimento de uma Politica de desenvolvimento dos recursos florestais e de uso racional das terras na Amazonia. SUDAM. Belem. ----------- . 1977. Analise conjuntural do problema flores- tal na Amazonia Brasileira. SUDAM Belem. ----------- . 1978. A floresta Amazonia Brasileira: Enfoque economic ecologico. SUDAM Belem. Pitcher, J.A. 1976. A tree improvement programme for Amazonia. IBDF-FAO. FO: DP/BRA/71/545. Technical Report 3. Brasilia. Pitt, J. 1969. Relatorio ao governo do Brasil sobre aplica- cao de metodos silviculturais na Amazonia. FAO- SUDAM. Belem. Poore, D. 1978. Ecological implications of forest industry development of Tapajos National Forest. TCP- Project 06/BRA/05/I. FAO. Brasilia. PRODEPEF. 1975. Amazonian Forestry: Present situation and perpectives for its development. MA-IBDF- PRODEPEF. Rio de Janeiro. 154 ----------- . 1978. Estudo da viabilidade tecnica-economica da exploracao mecanizada em floresta de terra firme-regiao de Curua-Una. PRODEPEF-SUDAM-IBDF. PNUD/FAO/BRA-76. Queiroz, W.T. 1978. Efeitos da variacao estrutural em unidades amostrais na aplicacao do processo de amostragem em conglomerados, nas florestas do planalto do Tapajos. Tese de mestrado. 109f. Curitiba. Reis, M.S. 1978. Uma definicao tecnico-politica para o aproveitamento racional dos recursos florestais da Amazonia Brasileira. MA-IBDF-PRODEPEF. Brasilia. ----------- . 1980. Tropical forest products in world timber trade. Monthly Bulletin, FO: MIS/80/24. June 1980. FAO. Rome. Slooten, H.J. 1976. Especies florestais da Amazonia: caracteristicas, propriedades e dados de engen- haria da madeira. PNUD/FAO/IBDF/BRA - 45. Serie- Tecnica 6. Brasilia. Smith, D.M. 1962. The Practice of Silviculture. John Wiley & Sons. New York. Speidel, G. 1978. Forestry' institutions. TCP-Project 06/BRA/05/I. FAO. Brasilia. Squire, L. and H.G. Van der TAX. 1979. Economic analysis of projects. Johns HOpkins University Press. Baltimore. SUDAM. 1973. Levantamentos florestais realizados pela mdssao FAQ na Amazonia (1956-1961). MI-SDA-SUDAM. Belem. ----------- . 1979. Pesquisas e informacoes sobre especies florestais da Amazonia. SUDAM Belem. Tamer, A. 1971. Transamazonica: Solucao para 2001. APEC. Segunda edicao. Rio de Janeiro. Volpato, E.P.B. Schmidt, and V.C. de Araujo.el972. Carapa Guianensis Aubl. (Andiroba). Estudos compara- tivos de tratamentos silviculturais . Acta Amazonica. 2:3. Amazonas. Wadsworth, F.H. 1978. Silvicultural aspects of integrated development of the Tapajos National Forest. TCP- Project 06/BRa/05/I. FAO. Brasilia. 155 Wahl, O. 1978. Mechanical wood industry. TCP-Project 06/BRA/05/I. FAO. Brasilia. webb, K.V. 1978. Marketing prospects. TCP-Project 06/BRA/05/I. FAO. Brasilia. Wetterberg, 6.8. and. M.T.J. Padua. 1978. Preservacao da nature za na Amazonia Brasi leira . PRODEPEF . Serie Tecnica 13. Brasilia. APPENDICES APPENDIX A TAPAJOS NATIONAL FOREST CREATION DECREE Decree Number 73,684 - February 1974 Creates the National Tapajos Forest and gives other provisions. The President of the Brazilian Republic, in use of his attributions according to Article 81, Item III, of the Federal Constitution, Considering line 'b' of Article 5 from. Law ‘Number 4,771 of September 15, 1965, DECREES: Article 14 in) Para State, the 'Tapajos National Forest will be created, under the jurisdiction of the Brazilian Institute of Forestry Development, an organ of the Ministry of Agriculture, with an estimated area of 600,000 hectares (six hundred thousand hectares), within the following limits: WEST: Tapajos River; EAST: Santarem-Cuiaba Road; NORTH: A straight line that passes through the 50 kilometer mark from Santarem-Cuiaba Road and 156 157 Latitude point 2° 45' S, at the right margin of the Tapajos River: SOUTH: Cupari River and its tributary Santa. Cruz, also called Cupari: west to the intersection of this or of an extension of its axis with the Santarem-Cuiaba Road. Article 2 : The Brazilian Institute of Forestry Development, by silvicultural research means, will promote the multiple use of natural resources of the Tapajos National Forest on a sustained yield basis. Article 3: Within one hundred eighty days (180 days), the Brazilian Institute of Forestry Development will select an area for the implementation of an experimental station, with the objective of performing research and experimentation with significant regional value. Sole Paragraph: The experimental station will be administratively subordinate to. the Brazilian Institute of Forestry Development. Article 4: The Brazilian Institute of Forestry Development has the legal right to set aside areas from the forest for biological reserves and for development as tourist attractions. Article 5: The Brazilian Institute of Forestry 158 Development has the authorization to consult or' convene. with public or private organizations for the rational use of the forest's natural resources. Article 6: The Ministry of Agriculture, by proposi- tion of the Brazilian Institute of Forestry Development, will create norms for adequate organization, functioning and multiple use of natural resources of the forest. Article 7: This decree will be in effect as of the date of its publication, and can be revoked only by contrary dispositiOns. Brasilia, the 19th Day of February 1974, 153rd Year of Independence and 86th Year of the Republic, (Signed), EMILIO G. MEDICI MOURA CAVALCANTI APPENDIX B BRAZILIAN FORESTRY CODEl Law Number 4771 of September 15! 1965 Article 1: The forests existing on the national territory, as well as any other forms of vegetation, which are known to help protect the soils they cover, are a stock of common interest for all of us, and therefore proprietary rights should be exercised within the limitations of the general legislation and of this law specifically. Sole paragraph: Any actions or omissions contrary to the provisions set forth herein, practiced in the use or exploitation of forests, shall be termed as misuse of the land (Art. 302, XI, b of the Civil Code). Article 2: For the purposes of this law, forests and other forms of vegetation situated as mentioned hereafter, shall be considered to be permanent preservation: a. Along rivers and other water currents, throughout marginal strips, the minimum width of which shall 1 Source: Beattie (1975). This Forest Code is currently undergoing revision, and the new version will be effective in 1982. 159 tion 160 be: 1,. Five meters of rivers less than ten. meters wide. 2. Equal to half the width of rivers measuring from ten to 200 meters from margin to margin. 3. 100 meters for any rivers more than 200 meters in width. Around natural or artificial lagoons, lakes and reservoirs. Around springs, even those called ”olho d' agua" whatever their topographic situation. At the summit of rises, hills, mountains and ridges. On slopes, or parts thereof, with more than 45 degree declivity, equivalent to 100 percent along the line of steeper declivity. On shores, as dune holders or swamp stabilizers. On plateau ridges. At altitudes over 1800 meter, on natural or artificial fields, native forests and field vegeta- tion. Article 3: Forests and other forms of natural vegeta- shall also be qualified as permanent preservation property, when so declared by an Act of the Public Powers and when intended to: a. attenuate erosion; 161 b.‘ hold dunes; c. form protection barriers along roads and railways; d. help in the defense of the national territory, as decided by the military authorities; e. protect sites of exceptional beauty or of scien- tific or historical value; f. be used as habitat for fauna and flora species threatened with extinction; g. preserve the environment necessary for ensuring public well-being conditions. Paragraph 1: The total or partial suppression of per- manent preservation forests shall be possible only with the previous authorization from. the Federal Executive Power, when necessary for the carrying out of work plans, activi- ties, or projects of public utility or social interest. Paragraph 2: Forests integrating the 'Patrimonio Indigena' (Indian Reservations) are hereby made subject to permanent preservation (letter 9). Article 4: Actions of "public interest" are defined as follows: a. the limitations and control of herds in certain areas, in order to permit proper conservation and propagation of forest vegetation; b. practices aiming at preventing or eradicating pests and diseases that could affect forest vegetation; 162 c. divulgence and adoption of technological methods that will increase the economical and useful life of timber and its utilization in all phases of handling and transformation. Article 5: The Public Power shall form: a. National, state and municipal parks, as well as biological reserves, specifically to protect excep- tional qualities of nature, harmonizing full protection of flora, fauna, and natural beauties with their use for educational, entertainment and scientific purposes; b. National, state and municipal forests for economi- cal, technical, and social purposes, and choose so far unforested areas to be reserved for that purpose. Sole paragraph: Any form of exploitation of the natural resources of the national, state and municipal parks is, as of now prohibited. Article 6: The owner of the non-preserved forest, according to the terms of this law, can pledge it to perpe0 tuity providing it is qualified as being of public interest by the forest authorities. The bond shall be the object of a document signed before the local forestry authority and legalized on the margin of its registration with the real estate registrar. 163 Article 7: Any tree may be declared immune to fell- ing by an act of the Public Powers, for reason of its location, rarity, beauty and seed bearing qualities. Article 8: Permanent preservation forested areas mentioned in this law, or the forests necessary to the local or natiOnal supply of timber and other products, can be included in the distribution of land intended for agri- cultural purposes in any settlement or agricultural reform plan. Article 9: Privately owned forests, adjacent to the others that are subject to a special regime, shall be subordinated to the laws ruling same. Article 10: The felling of trees is not permitted in areas with an inclination of between 25 degrees and 45 degrees, where the withdrawal of logs will only be tolerat- ed when done rationally and for permanent income purposes. Article 11: Charcoal or mineral coal can be used as fuel only when the precautions have been taken to avoid the diffusion of sparks that may cause fires in the adjacent forest or other form of vegetation. 164 Article 12: The expoitation of firewood and other forestry products, as well as the manufacture of charcoal, can be done freely in planted forests not considered to be of permanent preservation. In forests other than these mentioned, such exploitation shall be governed by rules to be established by an act of the State or Federal Power, based on the best practices dictated by technology and local peculiarities. Article 13: Marketing of live plants, originating from forests, shall require a license to be issued by the qualified authorities. Article 14: To further the general precepts that shall rule the utilization of forests, the State or Federal Public Power may: a. lay down other rules, as applicable to the local peculiarities: b. forbid or limit the cutting of vegetable species in danger of extinction, by issuing an act that will demarcate the area, in which the cutting of other species shall depend.9DTPDAL(6915)vDIL(6:15)vTLOSSvI9J9 +RIN7ROUT DEL-DELAY FOR EACH DBH CLASS<15) AND TREATMENT(6) DELP-PREVIOUS DELAY FOR EACH DBH CLASS AND TREATMENT DALBADJUSTED DELAY FOR EACH DBH CLASS AND TREATMENT DIL-DELAY IN THE GROUTH SUBROUTINE IF NOT OVER DENSITY TLOSSITOTAL LOSS FROM EACH DELAY PROCESS I'TRETMENT CLASS J-DBH CLASS , RIN-INPUT FOR EACH DELAY PROCESS ROUTIOUTPUT FROM EACH DELAY PROCESS COMMON/TERR/Vl9V29CIPAV(15):TPvTHvSILVvPNHPXLvRSV Vl-REMOVED VOLUME OF EXPORTABLE AND ARTIFICIAL REGENERATE TREES VZIREMOVED VOLUME OF LOCAL COMERCIAL TREES CI-CUTTING INTENSITY FROM .1 T0 1.0 AV=AVERAGE VOLUME BY DBH CLASS TP-TOTAL PLANTED TREES TH-FLAG IF-THINNING UAS EXECUTED SILV-FLAG IF SILVICULTURE IS DESIRED PNW-PRESENT NET WORTH 654tC 664-6 674-6 684- 694-6 704-6 714-C 7248C 734- 744- 754- 764- 774' 784- 794- 804- 814- 824- 834- 844- 854- 864- 874- 884- 894- 904- 914-. 924- 934- 944- 954- 964- 974- 984- 994- 1004- 1014- 1024- 1034- 1044- 1054- 1064- 1074- 1084- 1094- 1104- 1114- 1124- 1134- 1144- 1154- 1164- 1174- 1184- 1194- 1204- 1214- 1224- 1234- 1244- 1254- 1264- 1274- 1284- 1294- 189 XL'INTEREST RATE RSV-RESIDUAL STAND VALUE COMMON/VERDE/DACvDECvBIC DACINUMBER OF TREES FOR ENRICHMENT PLANTING BEC'NUMBER OF TREES FOR LINE PLANTING DICINUMDER OF TREES FOR CLOSE PLANTING DATA V1/0o0/ DATA V2/0.0/ DATA CI/1.0/ DATA AV/oO799v.3268:.648971.0768,1.610512.250v2.9953v3.846494.8033 +95.86697.0345v8.308899.6889,11.1748012.76665/ DATA TP/0.0/ DATA TH/0.0/ DATA SILV/0.0/ DATA PNH/0.0/ DATA XL/Ooll DATA RSV/0.0/ DATA ROUT/0.0/ DATA RIN/0.0/ DATA TL088/0.0/ DATA DIL/90!(0o0)/ DATA DT/1.0/ DATA DAL/901(0.0)/ DATA DEW/120 I100°!10097796980018.078031903'1001'409'502'600'90198 +05'2008'501'501'600'9037900,2505'500959096009807’10.09290895057409 +v6.5'8.8v10.0930.097.6v7.199.099.2911.0r30.7v7.2v6.898.2v10.3911.0 +933019907780211009!100491200'3402'901'908'10.091006914009350099051 +9o7'100695‘(120°,14o°9350°79o°990°71°00)/ DATA DEL/1200910009100977069800'8009803'903'1001'409'50276009901'8 +o5920o8v5o195o196.0v9.3!9o0!25o595.095o096o098o7910.0929o895.594.9 +7605'80891000930009706970178007902!11.09300797027608'802!1003911co +7330].7807'802’1009'1004'1200934029901I908!10.0910069140093500’9059 +90791°06I5‘(120°,140093500'900990001000)/ DATA ITR/O/ DATA IFLAG/O/ DATA CL/0.0/ DATA YEAR/0.0/ DATA XDA1/0.0/ DATA XDA2/0.0/ DATA 1/6/ DATA J/15/ DATA ALI/0.0/ DATA AREA/0.0/ DATA TMOR/0.0/ ‘ru 'IY" ‘uHI‘ ' DATA VALI-SoSv-l.969-1.6459-1.4399-1.2811-1.1509-1.037v-0o9259-0oa +419-0074559-006749‘005989-0052‘9-00454!-o03867-003121-002539-00 189 +v-0o1267-0o05690o090o05690o12690.18990.253v0o31290o38690o45490.524 +90o598v0o67490o75590-84170.92591o037tlo15091o28171o439v1o645v1.960 +1305, DATA PLR/15¥(0o0)/ DATA LOS/O/ DATA A/o79.69o59o79o89o77o0089o059o029oOIvo029o1090o019o00019o0099 +000170002'00019000590001,00001900006900008'00001900001!90001900001 +7o00005!11¥(o00059o00079o0001'o00017.0001vo00009!o00005)/ DATA D/o959o72!o63v.959o957o80v.089o309o10!o089o109o47o099.0099.10 +90077.069o0599209.009vo000979097o069o049.08!o019o005!o0005911¥(.03 +9 005’ 003’ 007' 0°57 000027 000008)/ DATA VRA/0.0/ DATA CLASS /10HSEEDLINGS '10H15’24o9 910M25-34o9 v10H35-44o9 + 'IOH45-54o9 '10H55-64.9 v10H65-74o9 910H75-84o9 710H85-94 +o9 '10H95-104o9 710H105-114o9 '10H115-124o9 110H125-134o9 910H1 +35-144o9 'IOH145 AND + / DATA BA/OOI' 003! 007' 013! 920' 028' 038' 050' 064' 0799 9957101391 03391054 /\ 190 1304- +.1.77/ 1314- DATA K/12912:12920118v22'14x(15915915922120925)/ 1324- DATA R/2250t(0.0)/ 1334- DATA STRC/Poxco.o>/ 1344- DAG-0.0 1354- BEG-0.0 1364- DIc-o.o 1374- soc-0.0 1394- OUT-0.0 1394- PRINT 1 _ 1404- 1 FORMAT(*1*T//T15X9¥ T A P A F o R x.//) 1414-C READ INPUT DATA 1424-C 1434- CALL SCREEN 1444- IFGO TO 20 TV-CUT-VOL AJA-1. - TV/STRG(ITJ) STRG(ITJ)-STRG(ITJ)3AJA DO 72 II-17N R(IITITJ)-R(II7I9J)*AJA CONTINUE TBA2-TBA2+TV*BA(J) IF(I.EO.2)V2-V2+TV3AV(J) IF(I.NE.2)V1-V1+TV¥AV(J) GO TO 20 HILL BE EXECUTED 4354-C SET FLAG FOR LOG- 4364-C 4374- 80 IFLAG-1 4384- DO 81 I-196 4394- IF(I.EO.3)GO TO 81 4404- DO 82 J-2915 4414- IF(IoE842)V2-V2+STRG(IPJ)DAV(J) 4424- IF(I.NEo2)V1-V1+STRG(I!J)¥AV(J) 4434- 82 CONTINUE 4444- 81 CONTINUE 4454-CC STAND HILL BE HITH ZERO DENSITY 4464-C 4474- DO 83 I-Ivé 4484- DO 84 J-1715 4494- N-K(I7J) 4504- DO 85 KK-IPN 4514- R(KKPI9J)-0o0 4524- 85 CONTINUE 4534- STRGCITJ)-Oo0 4544- 84 CONTINUE 4554- 83 CONTINUE 4564- ALI-100. 4574- GO TO 30 4584-C LOG INTENSITY 4594-6 4604- 4614- 4624- 4634- 4644- 4654-6 4664-6 4674-6 4684-6 4694- 4704-6 4714-6 4724-6 4734- 4744- 4754- 4764-6 4774-6 4784-6 4794-6 4804-6 4814-6 4824-6 4834- 4844- 4854- 4864-6 4874-6 4884- 4894- 4904-6 4914-c 4924- 4934- 4944- 4954-6 4964-6 4974- 4984- 4994-6 5004-6 5014: 5024- 5034-6 5044-6 5054- 5064-6 5074- 5084-6 5094- 5104-6 5114-6 5124- 5134- 5144-6 5154-6 5164- 5174-6 5184-6 5194- 5204- 5214-6 5224-6 5234- 5244-6 5254-6 1195 20 ALI-(TBA2/TBA1)3100. PRINT 449ALI 44 FORMAT(¥0$T/T1XT#AVERAGE LOG INTENSITY- *9F6.2) 30 RETURN END SUBROUTINE NETVAL THIS SUBROUTINE CALCULATE THE NET PRESENT VALUE BASED ON COST AND REVENUE OF SAHLOG AS FINAL PRODUCT COMMON/NRISTY/STRG(6915)9R(2596T15)TK(6T15)TBA(15)9CLASS(15)TVRA COMMON/DIMY/ALITTMORTXBA1TXBAZTYEARTCLTIFLAGTITR COMMON/TERR/V19V29CITAV(15)vTPvTHTSILVTPNHTXLTRSV TP-TOTAL TREES PLANTED V1-VOLUME OF EXPORTABLE OR ARTIFICIAL PLANTATION V2-VOLUME OF LOCAL COMERCIAL TREES PNH-PRESENT NET HORTH BASED ON SAHLOG AS FINAL PRODUCT XL-RATE OF INTEREST RSV-RESIDUAL STAND PRESENT VALUE 31.0 0 32.00 RSV-O. CHECK IF THINNING OF NON COMERCIAL TREES HAS EXECUTED IF 9924-6 STAGES IN TREATMENT I AND ODH CLASS J 9934-C 9944- FK-FLOAT(N) 9954- 8-1.+(D1L(ITJ)-DELP(ITJ))/(FKtDT)+PLR(J)tDELP(IvJ)/FK 9964- IDT-1.+2.xOTxPK/DELP-G:R> 10034- 10 CONTINUE 10044- -' R> 10054- 20 CONTINUE 10064- STRG/PK 10094- 30 CONTINUE 10104- TLoss-PLR 1 10124- RETURN 10134- END 10144-6 10154-6 10164-6 10174-6 10184- SUBROUTINE PRESCR 1o194-c 10204-6 THIS SUBROUTINE EXECUTE SILVICULTURAL TREATMENT AS SPECIFIED 10214-c 10224- COMMON/DIMY/ALITTMORTXBA19X8A2TYEAR96LTIFLAGTITR 10234-c ITR- NATURAL REGENERATION-1 10244-c ENRICHMENT PLANTING-2 - IFLA8-2 10254-6 LINE PLANTATION-3 - IFLA8-3 10264-6 CLOSE PLANTATION-4 10274-6 TOTAL-TREES UITH ODH GREATER THAN 15 CH 10284-6 10294- COMMON/TERR/VlyV2vCIvAV<15>TTPTTHTSILVTPNHTXLTRSV 10304-6 TP-TREES PLANTED 10314-6 TH-FLAG IF THINNING IS TO DE EXECUTED 10324-c SILU-PLAG IF SILVICULTURE IS TO DE EXECUTED 10334-6 10344- 60MMON/KRISTY/STRG(6T15)9R(2596915)TK(6915)TDA(15)vCLASS<15)TVRA 10354- COHHON/UEROE/DAC.DEC.OIC 10364-6 DAc-NUHDER OF TREES FOR ENRICHHENT PLANTING 10374-c Dec-NUNOER OF TREES POR LINE PLANTING 10384-6 DIc-NUHOER OP TREES POR CLOSE PLANTING 10394-c 10404-- DAc-o.o 10414- DEG-0.0 10424- DIG-0.0 10434- TH-o. 10444- TAc-o. 10454- TOTAL-o. 10434- DO 215 1-195 10474- IPITR 10554-6 NATURAL REGENERATION 10564-6 10574- 10584- 10594-6 10604-6 10614-6 10624- 10634- 10644-6 10654-6 10664- 10674- 10684- 10694- 10704- 10714-6 10724-6 10734-6 10744- 10754- 10764- 10774- 10784- 10794- 10804- 10814-6 10824-6 10834- 10844- 10854- 10864- 10874- 10884- 10894- 10904- 10914- 10924- 10934- 10944- 10954- 10964- 10974- 10984- 10994- 11004-6 11014-6 11024- 11034-6 11044-6 11054- 11064- 11074- _11084- 11094- 11104- 11114- 11124- 11134- 11144- 11154- 11164- 11174- 11184- 204 7 SILV-Oo GO TO 60 ENRICHMENT PLANTING CHECK DENSITY OF STAND 8 IF(TOTAL.GT.100.)GO TO 59 IFLAG-2 NUMBER OF TREES TO BE PLANTED BLUE-COS(TOTAL82.O¥3o14159265/36040) TP-26o2666114 + 100.93310 3 BLUE BA6-BAC+TP SILV-0.0 GO TO 60 LINE PLANTATION TO BE EXECUTED CHECK THE DENSITY 9 IF(TOTAL.GT.100.)GO TO 59 ° IFLAG-3 BLUE-COS(TOTAL32.033414159265/360o0) TP-26o2666114 + 100493310 3 BLUE BECIBEC+TP SILV-O. GO TO 60 CLOSE PLANTATION 10 TOTAL'OoO DO 46 IO‘196 DO 47 JO'1915 TOTAL-TOTAL+STRG(IOOJO) CONTINUE CONTINUE IF(TOTALoGT40409GO TO 48 TP-400o . BIC'BIC+TP SILV-OoO CL-Ooo GO TO 60 48 PRINTXO'X X X NO CLOSE PLANTATION EXECUTED - CLEARCUT + *' SILV-O o 0 GO TO 60 5 IF(ITRoEOo49GO TO 60 YEAR OF NON-COMERCIAL THINNING CHECK 47 46 IF(YEAR.LE.5.)GO TO 60 DENSITY OF STAND FOR THINNING TOTAL'O - DO 99 IB-195 DO 100 JB-2915 TOTAL-TOTAL + STRG‘ ID i J8) CONTINUE CONTINUE IF(TOTAL'3004960960913 TH-I o 0 PRINTSv'X B B NON-COMERCIAL THINNING EXECUTED * X 3‘ TIC-TOTAL-300. .1315 N-K(39J) TAG-TAG + STRG(39J) IF(TAC.GT.TIC)GO TO 17 100 99 13 16 50 FIRST X X -r1194-‘ 11204- 11214- 11224- 11234- 11244- 11254- 11264- 11274- 11294- 11294- 11304- 11314- 11324- 11334- 11344- 11354- 11364- 11374- 11394- 11394- 11404- 11414- 11424-c 11434-6 11444-6 11454-C 11464- 11474-c 11484-6 11494-c 11504- 11514-c 11524-6 PLR-PROPORTIONATE LOSS RATE IN PROPORTION/UNIT TIME 11534-6 11544- 11554- 11564- 11574- 11584- 11594- 11604- 11614- 11624- 11634- 11644- 11654- 11664- 11674- 11684- 11694-6 11704-6 11714- 11724- 11734-c 11744-C 11754- 11764- 11774- 11784- 11794-6 11804-6 11914-c 11824-6 15 17 78 59 PRINTtv'! * 8 NO SILVICULTURE EXECUTED-GOOD DENSITY OF COMERCIAL +TREES * X 3' 60 THIS SUBROUTINE CALCULATE PROPORTION LOSS RATE - PLR - BASED ON 2055 STRG(3IJ9-040' DO 15 KK-19N R(KK939J)-040 CONTINUE IF(JoEOo19GO TO 60 J-J'I GO TO 16 TAC-TAc-STRG(3TJ) IF(TIC.LT.TAC)GO TO 50 IF(TIC.EO.TAC9GO TO 60 TIV-TIC-TAC TEV-Io ' TIV/STRG(39J) STRG<39J)-STRG(3IJ)CTEV DO 78 IK-19N R(IK93IJ)-R(IKT39J)3TEV CONTINUE GO TO 60 SILV-Ooo CONTINUE RETURN END SUBROUTINE LOSS NORMAL DISTRIBUTION COMMON/RONN/LOSTA(7915)98(7915)TPLR(15)TAREATVAL(41) LO8-CLASS OF LOSS 10 11 12 13 14 15 GENERATE RANDOM NUMBER BETHEEN ZERO AND ONE 17 3 DO 3 Jx-1915 XMEAN-(A(LOSTJX)+B(LOSTJX)9/2. IF(JX.8T.5)80 TO 15 GO TO(10911912:13T14)JX SD-XMEAN/40. GO TO 17 SD-XHEAN/35. GO TO 17 SD-XHEAN/3o. GO TO 17 SD-XMEAN/25. GO TO 17 , SD-XHEAN/2o. GO TO 17 SD-XHEAN/Io. RIO-RANF(NULL) Y-TABLIE(VAL90o9.0259409RIO) RANDOM PLR BASED ON NORMAL DISTRIBUTION PLR(JX)-SD$Y+XMEAN CONTINUE RETURN END .‘I" 206 118348 SUBROUTINE TABLIE(VALTSMALLTDIFFTKPDUMMY) 11844-6 11854-6 THIS FUNCTION INTERPOLATE NUMBERS HITH EQUAL INCREMENT 11864-6 FROM ROBERT Ho LLEHELLYN - 'FORDYN' 11874-6 'AN INDUSTRIAL DYNAMICS SIMULATOR'(1965) 11884-6 11894- . DIMENSION VAL(1) 11904- BUM-AMIN1(AMAX1(DUMMY-SMALL90.O)TFLOAT(K)*DIFF) 11914- I-1.0+DUM/DIFF 11924- IF(I.EO.K+1)I-K 11934- TABLIE-(VAL(I+1)-VAL(I))*(DUM-FLOAT(I-1)3DIFF)/DIFF+VAL(I) 11944- RETURN 11954- END READY 19.12.05 LIST. 6: 148C 248C 468C 56: 6486 74:6 8486 94=c 104-6 116: 126-C 134-C 14486 1548 164: 1748 184- 194: 286: 214: 2248 2348 244: 254: 2443C 276:6 234:6 204: 164: 314: 3248 3348 344: o- 35:3 3668 374: 3863c 39686 40486 314: 424: 434: All: 454: 666: 6763 48‘: 4848 564-6 51486 52436 5348 564: 554- SS4- 574: APPENDIX G SOURCE LISTING FOR OPTIMUM PROORII OPTINUN(INPUTIOUTPUT) THIS PROGRIN OPTIIZE THE PRESENT NET NORTH OF AN AREA UITH FOUR DIFFERENT STANDS AND 20 TREATDENTS EACH UNDER SPECIFIED CONSTRAINTS 3486 AND RESULTS FROM TAPAFOR PROGRAM DIMENSION XNVAL(AoZO)OfVR(AOZO)'RSV(4'ZO)IBA(4OZO) INVAL=TRESENT NET IORTH Iva-TOTAL RENOVEO VOLUME Rsv=RESIOU1L STAND VALUE 31:6151L AREA 89 CONTINUE READ PRESENT NET IORTH VALUES PRINT 1 1 FORuAT(-1'o1021-ENTER VALUES OF PRESENT NET HORTH.) DO 2 J-1oA PRINT 30J FORu1T(-doo5:w-STAND NUIOER-A.I4) DO 4 JCS1929 PRINT SOJC FON'OT(.O.95=‘I‘OOSO) READ-IINVAL(J0JC) C RTINUE CONTINUE READ TOTAL VOLUME REMOVED VALUES PRINT 7 FORMAT(°OOo//IIIflvOENTER VALUES OF TOTAL REVOVED VOLUIE') DO 8 J81-4 PRINT IOJ 00 9 JC:192¢ PRINT SOJC REAO'92VP(JIJC) 9 CONTINUE CONTINUE READ RESIDUAL STAND VALUE PRINT IO FOR!:T(IO-9//OIOESOENTER RESIDUAL STAND VALUE.) DO 11 J=194 PRINT ‘IJ DO 12 JC=1929 PRINT SOJC READOIRSVIJOJC) 12 CONTINUE 11 CONTINUE READ BASAL AREA OF RESIDUAL STANDS PRINT 13 13 FORMAT('Ofio//91021-ENTER RESIDUAL 31511 AREA.) 00 14 JSTOO PRINT 39J DO 15 JCST'ZO 2(17 208 5348 PRINT SOJC 594- READO-OAIJOJC) sea: 15 CONTINUE 6148 14 CONTINUE 62486 63636 READ AREA FOR EACH STAND 646:C 6568 PRINT 29 664: 22 FORUAT(oioo//oIIflm-ENTER AREA IN HECTARES FOR EACH STAND.) 514: PRINT-o'STAND 18' 684: READ-0A 604- PRINT-v'STANO 22' 704: REA0093 714: PRINTOo'STAHD 38‘ 724: REAO'IC 734: PRINT-O'STAND 48' 744! READ-o: 754: AREASA+A¢C¢D 764- 9? CONTINUE 774:6 784:6 READ CONSTRAINTS 794:6 ORA: PRINT AA , 8148 (A FORPAT('9-9//OIOETOENTER CONSTRAINTS FOR AREA-I R24: PNINToo-tOTAL NUHOER 0F YEARS(CYCLE) 0F SIMULATION: ' 8348 REAO°oYEAR . 844: PRINT-o'AINIPUN DESIRED VOLUME TO BE RE'OVED 3T TEAR(TDTAL)= ' 854- READ'OAVRT 464: PRINT-o'HAIIIUN DESIRED VOLUIE TO 96 RENOVED RT TEAR(TOTAL)= ' 8768 READ-OAVRZ 884: PRINTOo-HINIIUN DESIRED AVERAGE DISCOUNTED RESIDUAL VALUE/HA: I 394- RESOO’ARSV 906: PRINT-v-NINIIUI DESIRED AVERAGE RESIDUAL BASAL AREA/HA: I 414: REAOoleAT 924:6 934:6 STARTING LOOP FOP REST CUISINATION 9463C 95‘: INTO“. 9648 DO 22 KI:1920 974: 00 23 KK-IIZO 9842 DO 21 AL=1920 994- DO 25 KN-IoZI 1604: TNTVsENVAL(IoKI)oA 4 INVALIZoHK)-a . INVAL(39KL)-c . XMVALI" NH).0 1814: TVRT=TVR(IoNI)-A . TVR(2’KK)09 . TVR(3°KL)'C o IVR(4oKH)°? IEZA: RSVTsPSVIIoII)04 0 PSV(29KI)°3 9 RSV(30KL)°C 9 RSVII'KFI'T 1034: BAT=9|(1-Kl)04 ‘ 3|(ZIKK)'9 9 BAIJOKL)°C 0 94(40K”)°: TOIA:C 1654-6 CHECK THE BEST ALTERNATIVE ACCORDING TO CONSTRAINTS 195486 1374: IF(flNTo-OT-ENTVIOO 10 25 IDEA: IF(TVRT/TEAR.LT-AVPI)GO TO 25 1994- IF(TVPT/TEIR-GT-AVR2)OO TO 25 119A: IF(RSVT/AREAALTAARSVIGO TO 25 1114- IF(BAT/AREA.L1.A8A1)GO TO 25 1124: XNTOSENTV 113A: BESTI:£mVAL(19KI) 1144: BESTzzaNVALIZoKK) 1154: SEST3¢DNVALI3oKL1 1164- 9E514:£NVAL(AAKN) 11748 NTSKI 1186: NZ=KK 1194: N38KL 12548 NOSMM 1214- 25 CONTINUE 1224: 123A: 12“: T254: 126‘: GOZ'T 12748 1234: 1294: IENT: 1304: 'I‘) T3IA: 132A: 9.2:. T334: 134‘: 11548 13648 T374: 1384: T394: 1464: 14148 14248 209 24 CONTINUE 23 CONTINUE 22 co~11qu .PRINT 34. YEAR 3! Fox-41I-Aoo/Iio142w-aesI COMBINATION OVER THE PERIOD OFOvIXoF OXDOYEIRSO) PRINT 31! N19N29N39N4 31 F0RNAT('009//052005TAN0 T TREATIENTS '0I49/'5:"STAND Z TREAT 9 ooIAo/oSfluOSTANO 3 TREATMENTS OoIAo/95XAOSTANO I TRATNENT8 0 PRINT 329 BESTTO BESTZ' BEST30 BEST‘ . 32 FORIAT(OOOI//010230 BEST PHI OVER CTCLE'O[95X901300F20030/053 49F2043oI.52'03:00F20430l05510‘8'9F2003) PRINT 55 55 FORIITTOP0O/IIOTIfivONEU CONSTRIINTS? ') REID.’CON3 IF(CONSOEOOTOIGO TO 9' PRINT 66 55 FOR'IT('9"///°TI290NEV VILUES TO BE OPTNIZED7 ') REOD"2NEH IF(i‘NEIoEOoT-NO TO Bl END RE£DY 1502102q APPENDIX H BEST STAND AREA DISTRIBUTION IN THE TAPAJOS NATIONAL FOREST This appendix presents a maximization process of PNW (present net worth) by using the COMPLEX algorithm to search area distribution along with routine OPTIMUM (Appendix G) that looks for the best. treatment; combina- tions. The basic approach will be the utilization of areas generated by COMPLEX in the OPTIMUM routine (FUNC subrou-F tine of COMPLEX in the present process), based on specified constraints. I The COMPLEX algorithm presented by Kuester, et al. (1973) is based on the "COMPLEX" method of Box (1965). An initial set of points is randomly scattered throughout the feasible region and it will tend to find a global optimum. To find the best stand. area. distribution. and. best treatment for the stands, the following criteria were established: MaxPNW= ZzNij ij Where stand number H. II treatment alternative L4. II 210 211 Nij = present net worth when stand i is managed according to j X = number of hectares of stand 1 SUBJECT to: a) COMPLEX - explicitly constrains (available area for each stand): 80,000 hectares > Xi > 0. - implicitly constrains (total area to be utilized): 23Xi = 170,000 hectares b) OPTIMUM (= Subroutine FUNC of COMPLEX) - volume removed by year by hectare according to i and j 3 (2:1 2:3. vij Xi)/AREA < 7 m /ha/year 3 (21 :j Vij Xi)/AREA > 4 m /ha/year - residual basal area in mZ/hectare according to i and j 2 (£1 23. Baij Xi)/AREA > 24 M /ha - stand discounted residual value/hectare according to i and j (Xi Z]. Rsvij Xi)/AREA > CR$ 7,000.00/ha AREA = total area to be utilized 212 The COMPLEX will generate areas according to specified constraints. Its subroutine FUNC (OPTIMUM routine from TAPAFOR approach) will establish the best treatment combina- tion according to its constraints and it will generate a best PNW for that area. This process will be repeated many times; then, the best area distribution will be that which will provide maximum PNW in treatment combinations. Best stand area distribution as determined by COMPLEX, which gave a 20 percent improvement in PNW over that computed in Chapter 6 was: Stand 1 = 56,897.61 ha Stand 2 = 32,382.51 ha Stand 3 = 12,401.73 ha Stand 4 = 68,318.14 ha The best treatment combinations for these stands were:1 a) Including Treatment 20: Stand 1 and Stand 3 = Treatment 18 Stand 2 and Stand 4 = Treatment 20 b)‘ Not considering Treatment 20: Stand 1 and Stand 4 = Treatment 18 Stand 2 and Stand 3 Treatment 17 This approach will be a useful one when avaibility of land for each stand is presented (i.e., as constraints established above). Treatment definitions are presented in Chapter VI. APPENDIX I TAPAFOR OUTPUT SAMPLE EXEC BEBUN.1?.14.43. T A P A F O R u 38! 383 it! #31 III 333 ORIGINAL STAND 13‘ it! ‘It tit -EXPORTABLE TREES- SEEDLINGS 3100 13-24.? '10 25-34.? '2 35-44.? '1 45-54.? .2 55-64.? ''1 65-74.? I1 75-84.? 3.7 85-94.? 8.? 95-104.? '2 105-114.? IIO 115-124.? '0 125-134.? 80 135-144.? IIO 145 AND + I0 -LOCAL COMERCIAL TREES- SEEDLINGS 31100 15-24.? .10 25-34.? '1 35-44.? .1 45-54.? I1 55-64.? '3 65-74.? 81 75-84.? ‘0 85-94.? =0 ?5-104.? '0 105-114.? II0 213 214 115-124.? '0 125-134.? I0 135‘14‘09 .0 145 AND + I0 NON COMERCIAL TREES- SEEDLINOS I20 15-24.? I15 25-34.? I3 35-44.? I2 45-54.? I1 55-64.? I2 65-74.? I1 75-84.? I1 85-94.? I1 ?5-104.? I0 105-114.? I0 115-124.? I.6 125-134.? I.2 135-144.? I0 145 AND + I.1 It. 313 It: ttt tit it! #88 3t! #83 it. #83 it! 3“ It! IS AREA PROBABILITY DESIREDT1 TOTAL AREAI 10.303 HECTARES NON-PRODUCTIVE FORESTI 1.?5? HECTARE‘ AREA BASED ON PROBABILITYI 8.344 HECTARES -TREATMENTI3 -CUTTINO INTENSITYI.8 -INTEREST RATE-.1 OPTION? I1 AVERAGE LOO INTENSITYI 42.02 EXPORTABLE VOLUME REMOVEDI 27.214CUDIC METER AT YEAR 0.00 LOCAL COMERCIAL VOLUME REMOVEDI 6.325CUBIC METER AT YEAR 0.00 DESIRED OUTPUT-2 *II It! 31‘ It! INC 338 ‘18 it! It! #83 It! It! #33 383 2115 381 $18 ‘83 838 88‘ tit ‘33 38‘ it. REC 313 tit tit til RESIDUAL STAND AFTER YEAR 0. PRESENT NET UDRTN- 98843.181 CRUZEIROS P/HECTARE RESIDUAL STAND PRESENT UALUE- 35547.444 CRUZEIROSP/HECTARE TOTAL PRESENT UALUE- 134410.444 CRUZEIROS P/HECTARE TOTAL TREES U/MINIMUM 15 EM DBH- 54.42 P/HECTARE TOTAL COMERCIAL TREES U/NININUN 15 EN 088- 27.52 P/HECTARE TOTAL COMERCIAL TREES U/NINIMUN 45 CM DDN- 2.52 P/HECTARE :4: 444 :44 444 444 444 444 444 444 :44 444 444 444 :44 RED YEAR FOR OUTPUT-20 SILUIEULTURE DESIREDTO LOO DESIRED?0 DESIRED OUTPUT-1 xxx 4:: xxx :44 444 444 444 444 444 444 444 444 444 :4: RESIDUAL STAND AFTER YEAR 20. ' TOTAL DASAL AREA DEFDRE DROUTN- 21.328 SOUARE METER P/HECTARE TOTAL DASAL AREA AFTER ORDUTN- 22.582 SOUARE METER P/HECTARE TOTAL MORTALITYI 2444.748 P/NEcTARE PRESENT NET UDRTN- 93747.140 CRUZEIROS P/HECTARE ACCUMULATE REMDvED VOLUME- 33.539 EUDIc NETER P/HECTARE RESIDUAL STAND PRESENT UALUE- 47544.528 CRUZEIRDSP/HECTARE TOTAL PRESENT UALUE- 141311.448 CRUZEIRDS P/HECTARE DDN CLASS ' TREATMENT EXPORTABLE Loc.coM. NON-COM. LINE PL. ENRI.PL. CLOSE-PL. SEEDLINGS 1219.77 1333.52 1084.09 .00 0.00 0.00 15-24.9 7.95 20.44 15.29 .00 0.00 0.00 25-34.9 5.48 21.77 11.97 1.51 0.00 0.00 35—44.9 7.28 47.44 4.27 15.73 0.00 0.00 45-54.9 3.71 4.99 _1.84 4.94 0.00. 0.00 55-44.9 1.24 I 1.08 1.29 .01 0.00 0.00 45-74.9 .42 1.14 1.41 .00 0.00 0.00 75-84.9 .01 1.27 1.00 .00 0.00 0.00 85-94.9 .oo :14 .97 0.00 0.00 0.00 95-104.9 .oo .oo .54 0.00 0.00 0.00 105-114.9 0.00 .00 .00 0.00 0.00 0.00 115-124.9 0.00 0.00 .24 1 0.00 0.00 0.00 125-134.9 0.00 0.00 .41 0.00 0.00 0.00 135-144.9 0.00 ' 0.00 .11 0.00 0.00 0.00 145 AND + 0.00 0.00 .04 0.00 0.00 0.00 it! tit 18* it! 8“ III til *1! #33 3" ill RID‘XXX II! 216 it! 88' it! it! til tit 38‘ it. It! 833 $88 ‘83 III tit NEH YEAR FOR OUTPUTI35 SILVICULTURE DESIREDTO LOG DESIREDTI CLEARCUT?0 CUTTING INTENSITY-1. AVERAGE LOG INTENSITYI 70.82 EXPORTABLE VOLUME REMOVEDI 101.450CUBIC METER AT YEAR 35.00 LOCAL COMERCIAL VOLUME REMOVEDI 156.1?4CUDIC METER AT YEAR 35.00 DESIRED OUTPUT-2 £83 383 $83 838 $88 883 $88 888 888 838 33! ‘88 III 388 RESIDUAL STAND AFTER YEAR 35. PRESENT NET UORTHI 114407.71? CRUZEIROS P/HECTARE RESIDUAL STAND PRESENT VALUEI 3836.531 CRUZEIROSP/HECTARE TOTAL PRESENT VALUEI 118244.251 CRUZEIROS P/MECTARE TOTAL TREES N/MINIMUM 15 CM DDHI 12?.4? P/HECTARE TOTAL COMERCIAL TREES U/MINIMUN 15 CM DBHI 74.14 P/HECTARE TOTAL COMERCIAL TREES H/MINIMUN 45 CM DBHI .00 P/HECTARE #33 It! 81‘ tit 3!! $33 $38 $38 $1! $88 III It! It! 388 NEH YEAR FOR OUTPUT-40 SILVICULTURE DESIREDTO LOG DESIREDTZ END TAPAFOR 026700 FINAL EXECUTION FL. .731 CR SECONDS EXECUTION TIME. READY 19.19.28 VITA VITA JORGE PALADINO CORREA de LIMA Ph.D. Dissertation: A Proposed Management Model for Brazil's Tapajos National Forest Final Examination: July 21, 1981 Biographical'Items: Born: November 03, 1949, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil Undergraduate Studies: University Rural of Rio de Janeiro, 1969-1972; 8.3. 1972 - Forest Engineer Graduate Studies: University Federal of Rio de Janeiro- 1974-1975; specialization in engineering economics, 1975. University of Brasilia, 1976; specialization in statistics and probability, 1976. Michigan State University - Department of Forestry, 1977-1981; M.S., June, 1979; Ph.D., Sep., 1981. Experience: Aero-photo interpretation, Bahia State Government, Brazil, 1973. Biometrician, Project PNUD/FAO/IBDF/BRA-45, 1974-1976. RIO, MG, SP, Mato Grosso. Head of statistics team for planning, COPLAN-IBDF, 1977. Brasilia. Member: Sigma Xi Xi Sigma Pi Society of American Foresters Conselho Regional de Engenharia e Arquitetura, RJ, Brazil. 217