SPATIAL PROCESS AND CHANGE ” - ' ........ IN A DEPRESSED AREA: fl j:ffi':;fv;i;;; Y ASTUDY 0F MIGRATION IN- : ‘ N.0RDLAND Vcoumy, NORWAY ,- L I 8 RA R Y Michigan State University This is to certify that the thesis entitled SPATIAL PROCESS AND CHANGE IN A DEPRESSED AREA: A STUDY OF MIGRATION IN NORDLAND COUNTY, NORWAY presented by OLE GADE has been accepted towards fulfillment of the requirements for Ph . D . degree in Geography mgg‘pmressm \ Date June 8, 1972 0-7639 ..... . ii| .||I-E ABSTRACT SPATIAL PROCESS AND CHANGE.IN A DEPRESSED AREA: A STUDY OF MIGRATION IN NORDLAND COUNTY, NORWAY By Ole Gade A perplexing problem of the technologically advanced world is the persistence within it of areas characterized by economic and social lag. This study'fianalyzes‘t'h-‘e extent to Yduch human migration can function as an index of regional disparity in socio-economic development. Geographic concepts, theory, and literature contribute to the development of a theoretical framework within which the implications of spatial variation in migration is assessed. Nordland County, Norway, provides the data base for a.detailed analysis of the miaration process in the econo- mically peripheral and marginal region. Factor analysis enables a delineation of time and space persistent processes and patterns for the period of research‘l9Sl-l969. These dimen- sions, most notably urbanization, demographic chance, industri- alization, and spatial variation in economic activity, are related to migration. The periodic dissimilarities in the roles played by the different processes as they influence migration streams are identified. Particular attention is paid to the effect of decision making process as energized by Public agencies in the pursuit of national and remional development objectives. upon tl region. select: causes from a with t peripl a redi even ( lnste; 8001a conti tends Count Ole Gade Migration is discovered to have a profound impact Inmn the conditions of life and livelihood in the marginal region. Time persistent net outmigration and migrant selectivity leads to a changing age structure which in turn causes pOpulation stagnation and decline. People move away from areas dominated by primary activities and low incomes with the net effect of debilitating the economy of the more peripheral districts. Migration clearly does not influence a.redistribution(xfeconomic Opportunity nor does it tend to even out existing Spatial differences in economic prOSperity. Instead the migration process enhances the preservation of social barriers to change in communities affected by continuing net outmigration, Once initiated the process tends to persist in strength and direction. Thus Nordland (kmmty's future appears to be one of continued net selective outmigration with an increasing role played by the central government in order to prevent further erosion of economic viability and political stability. SPATIAL PROCESS AND CHANGE IN A DEPRESSED AREA: A STUDY OF MIGRATION IN NORDLAND COUNTY, NORWAY By Ole Gade A THESIS Submitted to Michigan State University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY Department of Geography 1972 é 775’595’ © Copyright by OLE GADE 1972 measure who post period c N1 were where N provide for Nor ‘ lpklebc Oslo Up a part: the No' Norweg of Agr debt c intTOo Eener Dr. L N no Dam TeSy whie? ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The completion of this dissertation is in large measure due to the willing cooperation of many Norwegians yum unstintingly gave of their time during the author's period of field research in Norway. Particularly help- ful were the officials of the Norwegian Census Bureau where work space and access to unpublished data were pmevided; Eigil Axelsen, Director of Studieselskabet 'for Nord—Norsk Naeringsliv in Bode; Dr. Hallstein Myklebost, Director of the Institute of Geography at Oslo University who provided guidance and stimulation at a particularly trying time; administrators and scholars of the Norwegian Institute for Urban and Regional Research, Norwegian Institute of Transportation Economics, Department of Agriculture, and the Regional Development Fund. A special debt of gratitude is owed my good friend Lars fistby who introduced me to the Norwegian way of life. A Stimulation and patient guidance was provided in generous measure by the author's thesis director, [hm Lawrence M. Sommers. Additional thanks for aid in time Of need goes to other members of my guidance committee, particularly to Dr. Leonard Kasdan. The author accepts total reSponsibility for all mistakes and misinterpretations Which may have found their way into the finished cOpy of this study. Ole Gade CHAPTER III. TABLE OF CONTENTS CHAPTER I. INTRODUCTION], O...00......OOOIOOOOOOOOOOCOOOO The Study Region Divisions of the Study II. GEOGRAPHIC RESEARCH, SPATIAL PROCESS, AND THE TIME DIMENSION ..................... Introduction Spatial Processes Influencing Migration Urbanization and Depopulation Suburbanization Other Significant Processes Migration and Changing Spatial Patterns An Outmigration Spatial Impact Model Summary of Research Objective: III. EVOLUTION OF NORDLAND COUNTY SETTLEMENT PATTERNS ........................ 28 Population and Economy in Nordland A Historical Comparison of Population Growth in Norway and Nordland County Patterns of Recent Nordland County Populat ion Change The Population Concentration Process IV. SPATIAL PROCESSES AND PATTERNS IN NORDLADID O0.00.0000...OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOI.O 52 Data, Sources, and Related Problems A Factorial Ecology - Phase I A Factorial Ecology - Phase II A Factorial Ecology - Summary and Conclusions V. FACTORS AND PROCESSES INFLUENCING MIGRATION cococoococcocoooooococooooucoooooo 76 Migration in Norway - A Historic Overview Recent Migration Patterns in Nordland Relating Migration to Other Spatial Processes and Patterns in Nordland ii VI. T1 II III. '1 VIII. 1 BIBLIOGRA APPENDIX IPPENDIX VI. THE DECISION MAKING PROCESS AND MIGRATION .0000..0000.000000000000000000000' Decision Making: Achieving National Goals Decision Making: Toward Regional Economic Development Decision Making: The Private Initiative VII. THE SPATIAL IMPACT OF MIGRATION ............ Migration and Demographic Change Migration and Economic Structure Migration and Social Organization Migration and Political Structure VIII. SUMP‘IARY AND COI‘ICLUSIOI‘IS 0.00000...00..000..0 BIBLIOGRAPHY COCOOOOOOOIOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOIOOOO APPETJDIX A OOOOOOOOOOO...OOOIOCOOOOOOOOO0.00.00.00.00 APPENDIXBCOO....0...OOOOOOOOOOOCOOOOOOOOO00.0.00... ill 108 199 180 188 202 210 Table 1. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. LIST OF TABLES Norwegian Population Growth and Urbanization, 18n5-197O 00000.0..00000000..0 Per Cent of Nordland County Population Located in Ten Most Populated Administrative Units ....................... Per Cent of Nordland County Population Located in Ten Most Populated Administrative Units 0.000000000000000..00.0 Phase I: Factor Loading and Communalities . Phase II: Factor Loading and Communalities 000.000.00.00...000000.0.0000. Nordland FBCtorial ECOlogy 00000..000000.000 Norwegian Regions, Net Migration, 1951-196? 0000OOIOOOOOOOOOIOOOOOOO0.00.0000. Norwegian Regions, Net Migration Matrix, 1966-1967 00.00000.00000000000000000IOOOOOOOO Phase I, Ihni Two: Factor Loadinqs and Communalitles 00000000.0000000000000....0000 Phase II, Run Two: Factor Loadings and Communalities 000000.....00000000000o0000000 Comparative Factorial Ecology .............. Variables, Hypotheses, and Research Findings 00000....000.000.000.0000....0.0.00 Postal Service in Nordland, 1961-1968 ...... Demographic Structure: Variables, HyPOtheseS and ResearCh FindinZS .....00.0.0 Demomraphic Structure: Selected Kommune ... iv 35 #8 1+9 57 66 7L: 78 78 101 102 103 10% 115 152 156 16. 17. 18. EGDDOMIC Structure: variables, .. 162 HYpotheses and Research Findings ......... Economic Activity by EQQEEQQ: 1960-1965 ....00000000000000000000000. 166 Political Structure: Variables, 178 Hypotheses and ReseaTCh Findings ...0000.0.0 . mare Figure 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. l6. 17. 18 19. LIST OF FIGURES Norway Location Map 0000....0000..0....0.... The Study of Spatial Change in the cultural Region 000c000..000..0000000.000... Hypothesized Spatial Change in the Depopulating Region .0.000000000..00000.0000 Lofoten Fishing Village of Stamsund_........ Dairy Farm in Br¢nn¢y 00.000.000.000.0.00000 Valley in Interior Helgeland ..000...0000.00 Agricultural Valley on Vestvag¢y ........... Harbor at Br¢nn¢y8und ....0......0.0000000.0 Mosjden IHdUStry 00.00.00.000000.00000.000... Norwegian Population Growth ................ Nordland County: Regions and Urban Places . Per Cent Population Nordland County: Change, 1930-1946 Nordland County: Per Cent POpulation Chhn%e, 1946-1950 ......0.0.00.0.00.00..0000 Mordland County: Per Cent Population Change, 1950;1960000000....00000000000000000 Nordland County: Per Cent Population Change, 1960-1970 ......00000000000.0.000000 Mordland County Population Concentration ... Nordland County: Demographic Change ....... Nordland County: urbanization 00.00.000.00. Nordland County: Agricultural Emphasis .... vi la 22 3o 30 31 31 33 33 37 40 #1 “3 an U6 5O 59 62 20. N0 21. M 22. N1 M4 230: N M 2b. N 25. I 26. 1 20. 21. 22. 23. 2h. 25. 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. 31- 32. Nordland County: Phase II, 1963-1970 DimenSIOnS 0....000.....0.0.00000000.0000000 Nordland County: Annual Average Net Migration Rate. 1951-195? 0.000000000000o000 Nordland County: Annual Average Net Migration Rate, 1957-1961 00000.0.0..0000000 Nordland County: Annual Average Net Migration Rate, 196u-1966 .000000.00..0..000 Nordland County: Annual Average Net Migration Rate, 1967-1969 00.00.000.00.00.00 Frequency Distributions of Migration Averages ................................... Removal Grants Program, 1952-1969 .......... Abandoned Farms Near Stamsund .............. Vitting Agricultural District .............. POpulation Pyramids for Selected Nordland Kommuner 00000..0000.000...0000...0000.0000. Migration and Economic Emph381S ..000..00000 Frequency Distribution of Dairy Cattle in Evenes BHO Brflhnfiy 000.0..000.0000000.000000 Nordland County: Minor Civil Divisions .... vii 70 8h 88 91 9b -96 112 136 136 155 165 173 209 developm 1 social 5 regional : with de from t} CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION The problem of regional disparities in socio-economic development has long been a concern of geographers and other social scientists. Recent years have seen an intensification 1 of this interest. One approach emphasizes the identification, delineation, and assessment of the character and severity of regional differences while another concerns itself chiefly with devising the means of coping with the problems resulting from these areal diversities. Of the threads of communality which seem to serve as an organizing fulcrum for research in this problem area, the role of human migration is probably most relevant.2 Migration is often identified as a cause-effect factor leading to or E 1Brian J. L. Berry, "Identification of Declining Regions: An Empirical Study of the Dimensions of Rural Poverty," in Areas of Economic Stress in Canada, ed. by W. D. Wood and Richardfis. Thomas (Kingston, ontario: Queen's University, Industrial Relations Centre, 1965), 22-49; Brian J. L. Berry, Strata iesihflgdels, and Economic Theories of Development in gura Regions, U. S. Department of AgricfiI- ture, Economic Reports NOJI127 (Washington, D. C.: Govern- ment Printing Office, 1967): John P. R. Friedmann, "Regional Development in the Post Industrial Society," Journal of the American Institutelof Planners (May, l96h)7-BU:§UT‘" Jehn P. R. Friedmann, RegionaI—Development Policy: A Case Study of Venezuela (Cambridge, Mass.: Massachusettswffi§ETtute Of Technology Press, 1967). 2Migration is defined as a change of residence between minor civil divisions. _______'___i resultini fr the extent t as an index attempted be areal nigrai : is because I ' work within variation 1 work will i ' theses will 1 one of thro ‘10 Chief anon country on and a nag! areas imp Hilliamso Stands on “Shanta the use < “Sperm. \ Develilpm Process W 2 resulting from regional differences.3 This study will assess umoextent to which the migration phenomenon can function msan,index of regional disparity. That this has not been attempted before is possibly due to the dearth of detailed areal migration statistics over time,but more probably it is because of the lack of a comprehensive theoretical frame- work within which to diagnose the implications of spatial variation in population mobility. Such a theoretical frame- oork'will be developed in the second chapter. Related hypo— :heses will be tested with data collected in Nordland County, >ne of three counties in North Norway (see Figure 1). The Studykfiegion Norway was chosen for research for a number of reasons. thief among these was the fact that Norway is a developed :ountry with a rapid urbanization following World War II 1nd a nagging persistence of large, predominantly rural :reas imperfectly integrated with the national economy. Iilliamson has shown that Norway in the West European context otands out as more severely affected by regional income Iisparities than most other countries.“ His analysis involved :he use of a weighed coefficient of variation measuring the lispersion of regional income on a per capita basis relative l—‘-* 3Berry, "Declining RegionS." 22-40: Friedmann, "Regional )evelopment in the Post Industrial Society," 8h-90. ‘ “J. G. Williamson, "Regional Inequality and the >rocess of National Development," Economic Development and Eultural Change, XIII (January, 1963), 1-84. ”" Is I/ 735 '—“2 F." 6 l |4° . - Y 70° I _- #6 -111: ~F_ ~——-—-——. ___.4__ — a 4 .- COUNTIES | 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Osifold Akershu. Hedmork Opplond . Buckcrud . Vcotfold Tolemork AusI-Agdor Vest-Agder IO Roqoland ll Hordaland I2 Soon cg Fjordone l3 More 09 Romsdol I4. Sdr-Trondolaq l5. Nora-Trondoloq I6. Nordland I7. Tram. l8. Finnmcrk Q ’- Ipndhoim ~n Q I 5.0 I90 I§0MI 0 f Ibo aboxm to the net the size I European I Italy (.3 for Franc Sweden (. tiwe our} bee rele was anot‘ the mate author I rateria] and lean: 0? tom: Since 1 9001101111 oi the 1960 p Art or Mitre: remain in a ( “You 11 c>the national average. The larger the resultant the greater he size of regional income differentials. Of the West uropean countries analyzed Norway (.309) was exceeded only by taly (.360) and Finland (.331). Lower ratings were obtained or France (.283), Ireland (.268), West Germany (.205), weden (.200), and the United Kingdom (.141). For compara- ive purposes the United States was analyzed and found to e a relatively low .182. Ease of access to comprehensive and detailed data as another reason for selecting Norway. In addition to e materials published by the Norwegian Census Bureau, the thor was priviledged with access to vital unpublished terials. The author's familiarity with Scandinavian life nd languages was an additional factor favoring the choice f Norway. Nordland County was chosen for detailed field research ane it is clearly representative of the North Norway :onomic problem area. The county comprises eleven per cent 'the total land area and 6.7 per cent of Norway's total 60 population. It is the southern,r most densely populated rt of a region which has eXperienced a persistent out- gration tendency for several decades. Nordland and the nainder of North Nerway has been favored since World War II a comprehensive government directed regional planning crt because of its recognized marginal social and economic character to cope W opportuni disparltz have beer kommuner were cho and Fm represeu advance from th for otr introd Norsk Wm Nona Admin fond1 3% 1 n Ins in t so (1 tour has 5 several regional plans have been devised 5 racteristics; zope with the problems.6 Thus the region offers an excellent artunity for an investigation into migration and regional ;arity. Socio-economic data covering several decades 3 been collected for Nordland County and several of its nuner7 (Brdnnfly, Grane, Skjerstad, Evenes, and Vestvagoy) a chosen for more detailed field studies (see Appendix A Figure 32). On a larger scale the county may be considered resentative of depressed areas within the economically inced countries of the world. Generalizations deriving a this study therefore should contain important implications other countries. Divisions of the Study , This study comprises four main divisions: 1. an \ oduction to the major factors, objectives, and relations 5 Fridtjov Isachsen, "Regional Planning in Norway,” :k Geo-rafisk Tidsskrift. XIV (1953-1954). 358-628 Gunnar mo, Re ional 53velo ment in Post-War Norway (Bergen, ay; T e Norwegian School of Economics and Business inistration, 1963). 60dd J. Breivik, Om Distriktsutb ginven op Distrik- es Utb inpsfond (Oslo,*Norway: 513%rifitenes fitByggings- 3. : Diderich H. Lund, "The Revival of Northern Norway," vra hic Journal, IX (June, 19h6), 185-97; K. Scott Wood, North Norway Plan (Bergen, Norway: The Chr. Michelsen 'i u e, 96R). 7The Norwegian kommune is akin to a U. S. township he adminstrative hierarchy but individual Eommuner vary treatly in area and population characteristics that ship comparability is a problem. Thus the term kommune been retained throughout. to be con: marginal of Hordla mMmM }. a dei and an a] it ( Cha impact c is alvei conclus Which c a listi 6 o be considered in migration research within an economically arginal region (Chapter II) 2..an analysis of the evolution fi‘Nordland County settlement patterns (Chapter III), and niidentification of related spatial processes (Chapter IV); L a delineation of the spatio-temporal migration pattern um an analysis of the processes and factors influencing it ( Chapters V and VI); and 4. an assessment of the spatial meact of migration through time (Chapter VII). Within the study as deemed relevant, due consideration Ls given to regional planning implications. The summary and :onclusion of Chapter VIII are followed by two appendices which contain statistical data, kommune location maps, and a listing of variables used in the statistical analysis. The knowledge < _ patterns. such an era are identi v they Stres Harvey 35,) processes human geo, pattern d Process“ failed tc km‘fledgc \ ASd’ntha LIV (Mar PrOblem “W Its Rel; CHAPTER II GEOGRAPHIC RESEARCH, SPATIAL PROCESS, AND THE TIME DIMENSION Introduction The objective of this study is to extend existing >w1edge of spatial processes as they affect geographical :terns. Little attention has been paid by geographers to ah an endeavor despite Berry's comment that "geographers aidentified more by the processes and integrating concepts 2y stress than the phenomenon they study.”1 In contrast rvey says "we are generally ignorant of the nature of cesses shaping the evolution of spatial patterns in an geography."2 King suggests that "the laws of spatial tern do not necessarily tell us anything as regards cess...,” and "geographic theorizing in the past has led to combine the statements of spatial form with the 3 wledge of process." 1Brian J. L. Berry, "Approaches to Regional Analysis: ynthesis, " Annals of the Association of American Geographers, (March, 1955), 2-II. Znavia w. Harvey, "Editorial Introduction: The blem of Theory Construction in Geography, " Journal of ional Science, VII (Supplement, 1967), 211-13. 3Leslie J. King, "The Analysis of Spatial Form and Relation to Geographic Theory," Annals of the Association American Geographers, LIX (September. T959). 393- 7 The partially e1 process am of geograph research bu structure 0 1 central pla follows an ‘ the study d tlwlty of j c and as a r “B ”Where is * Marleen G Chapman' n “Septemh dDecade < Annals of 5. Studies 1 W ‘ Christan ft‘s, N n H ... 8 The lack of concern for spatial process is only partially explained by King. Berry and others place spatial pmocess directly or inferentially at the apex in a hierarchy fi‘geographic research.“ The argument is that geographic research builds upon a clear understanding of the static structure of patterns in space; therefore the interest in zentral place systems5 and location theory.6 From this ‘ollows an associated, though later developed, interest in me study of more dynamic spatial relations like the connec- dvity of places, spatial flows, and spatial interaction,7 nd as a result the more recent surge of interest in P‘_ “Berry, "Regional Analysis," 2-11; Edward A. Ackerman, Where is A Research Frontier,” Annals of the Association of merican Geogra hers, LIII (December,—1963), 429-30; J. D. Hapman, "The Status of Geography," The Canadian Geo ra her, (September, 1966), 133-4u, Clyde F. Kohn, "TEE—156%T§§“' Decade of Progress in Geographical Research and Instruction," nnals of the Association of American Geographers, X (June, 970). 211-19. 5Brian J. L. Berry and Allen Pred, Central Place tudiesz A Bibliography of Theory and Applications (Phila- e1Phia: Regional Science Research Institute, 1965); Walter hristaller, Central Places in Southern German (Englewood liffs, New Jersey: PPrentice-Ha , Inc., 9 . 6Peter Haggett, Locational Analysis in Human Geography dew York: St. Martin's‘Press,—I§6673 7Edward L. Ullman, "Human Geography and Area Research," lnals of the Association of American Geographers, XLIII Aaron, 9 . - 3 Edwar L. U lman, Agerican Commodity LEE (Seattle: University of Washington Press, 1957); iwin H. Thomas, "Areal Associations Between Population " ?owth and Selected Factors in the Chicago Urbanized Area, 22Bomic Geography, XXXVI (April, 1960), 158-70. uhratlor patina,“ research . putters ; related through have bee dhenslc h Sanpl slderat p to. 13 Richard Urban 5 Lund . [Urban Canter LIV (p Aspect drown| Retier HtVea', m Yopk‘ 1% 9 gration,8 commutation,9 diffusion of innovation and decision king,10 and consumer behavior.11 The basic barrier to arriving at the top of the search hierarchy has been the problem of dealing with spatial tters in a temporal context. To study dynamic, inter- lated spatial processes requires consideration of change rough time and there is wide agreement that geographers ve been generally negligent with respect to the temporal nension.12 0f the geographersvfluahave mentioned an interest 8Torsten Hagerstrand, "Migration and Area. Survey of iample of Swedish Migration Fields and Hypothetical Con- lerations on Their Genesis," in Migration in Sweden, ed. by dd Hanmerberg, et a1 (Lund Studies In Geography, Series B, 13 (Lund, Sweden: C. W. K. Gleerup, 1957)). 27-158; :hard L. Morrill, ti ration and the Spread and Growth of >an Settlements (Lun tudies in Geography, SerieS’Bi No. 26 md, Sweden: C. W. K. Gleerup, 1965))- 9James 0. Wheeler. Research on the Journey to Work 'bana, Illinois: Council of Planning LIbrarians, I§5§[. loJulian Wolpert, ”The Decision Process in A Spatial text," Annals of the Association of American Geographers, '(DecemBer, I96U), 537-58} Julian Wolpert, "Behavioral ects of the Decision to Migrate," Pa ers and Proceedings, ional Science Association, xv (196371.1139-69: Lawrence A. Who Diffusion Processes and Location (Philadelphia; ionaI Science ResearCh InStitute,gI968). llGerard Rushton, "Analysis of Spatial Behavior by ealed Space Preference," Annals of the Association of Eican Geographers, LIX (June, I9697, 391-400. 12 l sis (New - Walter Isard Methods of Regional Ana y k: John Wiley and Sons, 19607.2H: MorriIl, Migration and §Q_Settlements, 10. j I. an spatia‘. ‘ the subje i inthe br detailed ‘ groups 11 ‘ research ‘ making p 1 avaflabl ‘ renown The bri ‘orafa tant, t ‘ and (111 \ Fronti and Pr 1-7: H ‘ All Exa of Am m Econor m. Study see R Gem (Unpr 311d 1 Mm 30w 30115 10 13 in spatial process only Brookfield and Wolpert have pursued the subject much beyond simply identifying its relevance in.the broader scheme of geOgraphic research. Brookfield's detailed study of cultural change processes amonq indigenous groups in central New Guinea was based upon his own field research. Wolpert‘s in depth field study of the decision nmkinq process in Sweden was aided by detailed statistics available in Scandinavian countries.“L The time dimension is crucial to this study for the following reasons: 1. The migration process is both temporal and spatial. The brief time span involved in the moving of an individual or a family from one place to another is in itself unimpor- tant, but the temporal variation in the composition, size, and direction of migration streams15 is highly simnificant. 9.. 13See, for example, Ackerman, "Where is a Research Frontierg" Berry, "Regional Analysis:" J. M. Blaut, "Space and Process," Professional Geovra her, XIII (January, 1961), 1-7: H. C. Brookfield, "Local—S udy and Comparative Method: An Example From Central New Guinea," Annals of the Association of American Geographers, LII (June, 19627] ZEZ-SH; H. C. Brook ield} "Questions on the Human Frontier of Geography," Ebonomic geography, XL (July. 1954): 283-303: Wolpert, "The ecision Process;" Wolpert, "Behavioral ASpects." 1”For a recent and very detailed analysis of the study of spatial process in geography and other social sciences see Richard W. Wilkie, "On tflma Theory of Process in Human eography: A Case Study of Migration in Rural Argentina" (unpublished Ph.D. dissertation, University of Washington, 1968), 15M1grants who depart from a common area of origin nd arrive at a common area of destination during a given igration interval constitute a migration stream. Donald J. ogue, Princi les of Demography(New York: John Wiley and Sons, 19705. 737» E To meenir several ( Such an 1 temporal pulsatin fieatior I bythee points of cond Space 2 may see busine‘ ehangi 0f miq 1m ecc trams my 0 in so w111 as H We Shoo ll kmmeanianully assess this variation and its causative forces uweral consecutive time periods of observation are necessary. hwh an approach will result in an analytic description of :emporal changes in migration (a delineation of the actual ;mlsatinq nature of migration through space), and an identi- fication of the periodic dissimilarities in the roles played w'the different factors inducing migration. 2. Economic location decisions are made at specified ;mints in time. These decisions remain as static symbols fi‘conditions which may no longer exist since patterns in space are inexorably bound to dynamic spatial change. What may seem an optimally located industrial plant or retail business at one moment may not at another due to constantly zhanging circumstances.16 The study of temporal variation 3f migration patterns will reveal the degree of obsolescense in economic location decisions. 3. The diffusion thorugh space of technology, ransportation linkages, and the perception of an improved ay of life elsewhere is, by definition, a function of time. n so far as migration is affected by these factors it ill vary in its spatial pattern through time. u. The discovery or the depletion of natural resources 3 well as the improvement in human productivity are factors hich are periodic or evolutionary in nature and which may encourage population movement. 16Morrill, yigration and Urban Settlements. r : the temp culty of I for the of stati is now i : dealing | . problem , precise ' influen it eccnom I, throng ectivi inten locale for e: acri men, Piece asso, “it \ dove Dev: m 12 Yet another reason for the apparent past neglect of me temporal dimension in geographic research is the diffi- 1lty of efficiently managing the vast amount of data necessary Jr the identification of spatial processes. The application ? statistical data reduction techniques and computerization 3 now increasingly resolving this difficulty. Prior to aaling in greater detail with the data and quantification coblems of this study it is important to identify more cecisely the nature of the forces and processes seen to mfluence migration. Spatial Processes Influencing migration Regional disparity is founded on the fact that zonomic growth and accompanying settlement proceed unevenly nrough space. Industrialization, centralization of economic etivity, and urbanization are some of the different though terrelated processes that begin and spread out from given cales. The momentum of an early start of a central place r example, provides an initial advantage which will "at critical stage become magnified in the course of develop» nt."l7 The diffusion through space of these and other ocesses have important implications for migration and sociated spatial reorganization. As Harvey has noted, t is clear that the real world patterns are usually the 17Edward L.qulman, "Geographic Theory and Under- veloped Areas," in Essays on Geography and Economic velo ment, ed. by Norton Ginsburg (Chicago: The University C icago Press, 1960), 28. result oi I of which simple s study to r they ope reiatior each is mechani ‘ wealth . rise to that as has pm intern Rid Spi ‘ and d1 Persia ‘ the It as it“ litre of po Price \ fmil} 13 sult of highly complex interacting processes, not all 'which can be interpreted very easily in terms of some mple system or theory.”18 It is a major objective of this .udy to separate as much as possible these processes as ey operate in space in order to discover their varying Qationship to migration. Process differentiation is important also because eh is induced and influenced by substantially different mhanisms (see Figure 2). These mechanisms comprise the :alth of human and physical energizing agents which give se to, or in some way influence the character of processes Lat cause and explain change in spatial patterns. Wilkie 3 provided a particularly enlightening analysis of the iterrelatedness between energizing agents, spatial process, d spatial change.19 These different processes vary in intensity over time p differ in their degree of spatial influence. Thus, a rsistent urbanization process will diffuse gradually through e landscape pulling people into the migration streams they perceive the value of moving in order to gain urbanity. proved urban transportation and. continued concentration population in central areas may initiate the suburbanization ocess characterized by people moving away from core areas 18David w, Harvey. "Geographical Processes and the Flysis of Point Patterns," Transactions and Papers, stitute of British Geographers, XL (1966), 81. 19Wilkie, "Theory of Process." ZOHUMMH :gHJ—LHC HEELS ht... .nr‘hltii‘ Iv ii N. NEOHEN 1h pounced ascend I'll .mwsmno Hangman ea moocosucm Henna 0:» aopmmm scavmphoa soameQOMCH enemas bMMamwmwwwwmmaaou mooascm mmaocm cam unannoa :odpmasnom mooa>hom mmwpwmmmm spd>aeo¢ scam .m odaocoom Mo coapmooq acpmhm comam flamenco .wzmme94m quaemm czch1aoes within commuting distance of urban employment. :rmittent, though well directed, attempts at inducing {strialization may encourage a migration stream with 'erent time and space components and varying implications spatial economic growth. After population mobility patterns are identified, jvarying relationship between the several locational space :esses (see Figure 2) and migration must be determined. :his way it becomes possible to gauge the role of the .vidual process in reordering the landscape through 'ation. Success in this endeavor can have very practical .ication in regional and social planning. In order to structurally control this 'situation of inized complexity,’ this investigation will emphasize differentiated roles of the urbanization, suburbanization, depopulation processes in stimulating and affecting 'ation. The main reason for focusing upon these parti- ir processes is that each involves a distinct kind of lation movement with substantially different implications spatial change. Other relevant processes, like industrial- ion and commercial centralization will be considered he degree they influence urbanization, suburbanization, depopulation. nization and Depopulation.--Urbanization and depopulation probably the most important spatial processes operating he study area. Urbanization may be defined simply as the "W rays: ti increase ‘ siuplist '_ spatial I resident socio-er through decrees ; in this or are hrbani: ll etiorr i the ti house up; from bette urhar Peri] 16 e "process of population concentration proceeding in two ys: the multiplication of points of concentration and the crease in size of individual concentration."20 Though mplistically defined, urbanization is a rather complex atial dimension involving the transformation of the basic sidential pattern from rural to urban with its attendant cio-economic changes. The diffusion of urbanization rough the landscape may result in'a zone of population crease some distance away from the urban place involved.2 this fashion urbanization may give rise to depopulation . areal population loss. It should be noted that while rbanization involves any movement to an urban area, depopul- :ion does not take effect until the net migration loss for re time period in question exceeds-the net natural population rcrease (births minus deaths). gpurbanization.--The increased commuting range resulting ‘om an expanding urban area, improved transportation, and :tter living conditions are the essential features of sub- 'banization. People move from the heart of the city to its eriphery. Important spatial changes include a concentration l_— 20Hope Tisdale Eldridge, ”The Process of Urbanization," r Demo ra hic Anal sis, ed. by J. J. Spengler and O. D. moan iGlencoe, Illinois: Free Press, 1956), 338; see also rilip M. Hauser and Leo F. Schnore, The Study_of Urbanization ’ew.York: John Wiley and Sons, Inc., 19577. 21Peter Scott, "Population Origins in a Hobart burb," Australian Geographer, X (March, 1967), 197-203. i of oentrr expense urbaniza nentrali Other 8? ‘ oourrtri the pro tion of and so: in nanp . eoonouri indust, ‘1 creasi‘ ( thus r: 17 central place functions in the urban fringe area at the pense of adjancent smaller towns and villages.22 Thus sub- banization operates spatially in close symbiosis with ntralization of commercial activity.23 her Significant Processe§.--In most economically advanced untries, industrialization and urbanization are mainly e product of free market forces through which "differentia- on of function, spatial arragement, resource allocation, 3 economic growth were largely achieved."2’+ The governments many of these countries have attempted to restore regional cnomic balance by the artificial stimulation of growth 25 iustries in marginal areas. The result has been an in- easing importance of regional planning in urban growth and IS population resettlement. Manufacturing, if it locates in response to the 22Sidney Goldstein, "Some Economic Consequences of Durbanization in the Copenhagen Metropolitan Region," srican Journalfof Sociologz. LXVIII (March, 19 3). 551-54. H. Holmes, "The Suburbanization of Cessnock Coalfield Towns: Sh-1964," Australian Geographical Studies, III (October, 1964), 3-28: Edgar Kant, "Suburbanization, Urban Sprawl and rmutation," in Migration in Sweden, 2&4-309. 23Brian J, L, Berry, "The Impact of EXpanding Metro- itan Communities Upon the Central Place Hierarchy," .als of the Association of American Geoggaphers, L (June, '0) ’ llz-ié. ‘1 ‘ 2“Philip M. Hauser, ”Urbanization: An Overview," The Study of Urbanization, 35. 25E. Casetti, L..J. King, and J. Odland, "On the mal Identification of Growth Poles in A Spatial-Temporal text," Proceedings: Canadian Association_of Geographers 70). 39-”3- Ei developm todisrt County: of a 001 i resourc " in esta to this : quitec‘ DTOCGS! E of pro manner Proces i mfirai basis the 5 Mi Dresl been 70—, c..- [238 a. m a pa (9 (v - E/cv-é/a/n ,_.. \1 L- 18 melopment of relatively isolated natural resources, tends »disrupt expected economic growth patterns. In Nordland >unty several industrial centers have emerged as a result ‘ a combination of market responses to favorably situated asources, natural as well as human, and government interest 1 establishing growth industries. Migration patterns relatinz > this kind of centralization process will be found to be 11te different from those associated more directly with the recesses previously discussed. Thus, migration is the end result of a combination f processes working through time in a spatially discriminant inner. By analyzing the varying impact of the different nocesses we may be able to more clearly predict future igration response. Migration.and Changing_Spatial Patterns An improved ability to predict and plan on a reqional sis should result through attaining greater insight into e spatial impact of migration. Scientific research has elded a number of migration models since Ravenstein first esented his laws of migration in 1885.26 There have, however, .en few attempts at bringing together the components of an 26H. ter Heide, "Migration Models and Their Signi- Lcance for Population Forecasts," Millgank Memorial Fund larterly, XLI (Spring, 1963): Walter Isard and Gerald » P. Carrothers, "Migration Estimation," in Methods of =gional Anal sis, 51-79; E. S. Lee, "A Theory of MiErEtion" mo‘raph T:T%T_Tl966), ”7-573 Merrill, Migration and Urban ttlemen s; R. G. Ravenstein, "The Laws of Migration," urnal of the Royal Statistical Society, XLVIII (1885), 7'2350 w all-enoom; reasons fo olsts haw theories . oiorant s rate of n demorrapl centered olqratio Canada : Geograol 115322 Hesearc‘ I ‘ "Region Eoonori Theory, my}, ‘Iet No "The R States (1960) 0? Int 9 error E A Surv W111 “era 31% or” “who l9 l-encompassing migration theory. One of the more important asons for this is segmentation in research focus. Econo- sts have emphasized 'push-pull' and economic equalization eories.27 Sociolorists and demographers have focussed on mrant selectivity, i.e. the study of differences in the te of migration between various economic, social, and 28 moqraphic qroups of the population. Anthropologists have ntered upon changes in social structure deriving from the gration of given culture groups. Geographers have shown a more diversified interest. 27Richard Lycan, "Interprovincial Migration in nada: The Role of Spatial and Economic Factors," Canadian ogra her, XIII (Fall, 1969), 237-5h: Gunnar Olsson, stance and Human Interaction (Philadelphia: Regional Science search Institute, I963); Bernard Okun and R. w. Richardson, egional Income Inequality and Internal Population Migration," onomic Develo ment and Cultural Change, IX (January, 1961), 8-33: Robert L. Raimon, "Interstate Migration and Wage gorg," The Review of Economics and Statistics, LIV (1962), -3 , ' 28O. D. Duncan, "Occupation Trends and Patterns of t Mobility," Demography, III (1966), 1-18: Larry A. SJaastad, he Relationship Be ween Migration and Income in the United ates,” Pa ers of the Regional Science Association, VI 960), 3 - ; Conra Taeuber,tfiEEonomic and"Social Implications Internal Migration in the United States,‘ Journal of pm Economics, XLI (December, 1959), llnl-Sl. 29Chandra Jayawardena, "Migration and Social Change: Survey of Indian Communities Overseas," Geogra hical Review, III (June, 1968), n26-49: Leonard Kasdan "Eamigy Structure} gration and the Entrepreneur," Com arative Studies in ciety and History, VII (July, 1955), 353~373 feonard Kasdan, .. Mi ration and Anthro lo (Seattle: University of shington Press, 1 71 . This has 1 concern or by stare, migration migrants in Outmio introduo study. of regic ———- Tripoli ikin L. Urban no 1'19o Jo Review iocoobe tittioi Intra-I Conner Populat Haters finely: Heine XVII Kaieo Dista} 312.2 See 0 attic in 1.71 mm} trshr ‘iu. W 20 30 . inns has ranged from a holistic approach to a more specific 31 concern with the problem of migration distance: migration tw'stage, also referred to as stepwise migration:32 and the nflgration field, defined as the spatial distribution of nflgrants as viewed from the community of origin.33 An Outmigration Spatial Impact Model.--Many of the concepts introduced above will be further elaborated later in this study. Since primary concern is with migration as a factor of regional disparity, emphasis must be placed on its spatial 30Robert S. Harrison, "Migrants in the City of Tripoli,” Geographical Review, LVII (July, 1967), 397-u23, Akin L. Mabogunje, "Systems Approach to A Theory of Rural- Urban Migration," Geographical Anal sis, II (January, 1970), 1-19: James W. Simmons, "Changing es ence in the City: A Review of Intra-Urban Mobility," Geographical Review, LVIII (October, 1968), 622-51. .1 31Lawrence A. Brown, Frank E. Horton, and Robert I. Wittick, "On Place Utility and the Normative Allocation of Intra-Urban Migrants," Demography, VII (1970). 175-83; Gunnar Olsson, "Distance an uman Interaction," GeOgrafiska Annaler, XLVII-B (1965), 3-le3. I 32Torsten Hagerstrand, "The Movement of a Rural Population," Swedish Geographic Yearbook, XXVI (19h7): Hagerstrand, "Migration and Area. " 33Reino A10, "An Approach to Demo graphical Systems Analysis," Economic Geogra h , XXXVIII (October, 1962), 359-71, Reino Ajo, "Fields of PopuEa%ion Change " Acta Georraphica, XVII (1963), l- 19: Hagerstrand, "Migration and Area:" Kalevi Rikkinen, "Change in Village and Rural Population With Distance From Duluth," Economic Geography, XLIV (October, 1968), 312-25. For a more compTSte review of migration literature see Ole Gade, "Geographic Research and Human Spatial Inter- action Theory: A Review of Pertinent Studies in Migration," in Migration and Anthropology, 72- 93, Edgar} (ant, "Migratio- nernas Klassifikation ochfProblematik." Svensk Geografisk Arsbok, (1953), 180- 209: and J. J. Mangalam, Human Migration: .u e to Migration Literaturef in English, 19 Lex ng on: University of Kentucky Press, 1968). | inpeo ; frequ fore induo the i show plio sini for too sta (iii 21 impact, especially in the marginal region. Such a region frequently exhibits a recurring net population loss, there- fore the particular interest of this study in outmigration. A rather large body of literature deals with migration induced change. This research has a special concern with the economically backward or depressed area. In addition it shows evidence of a relatively large degree of interdisci- rflicary crossfertilization, and a significant measure of similarity in crosscultural findings. For these reasons it is possible to derive from this literature a framework for a descriptive model of outmigration effects in Nordland County. In Chapter VII a number of hypotheses will be statistically tested to assess the model's validity. The spatial impact model involves four principal divisions with eXpected relationships as shown by the flow diagram (see Figure 3). 1. Demographic structure. Those who migrate are primarily young adults particularly women. In the area of outmigration a relative deficit of young women may be expected,34 as well as a high median age of adults,35 and falling birth 3L’Bertil Wendel, "Regional Aspects of Migration and Mobility in Sweden, 19u6-1950," Lund Studies in Geo ra h , XII-B (1957), 7-26; H. R. Jones, "Migration Within gcoéland," §pottish Geographical Magazine, LXXXIII (1967). 151-60. 35Howard L. Bracey, "Some Aspects of Rural Depopulation in the United Kingdom," Rural Sociology, XXIII (December, 1958) 385-91: W. H. Metzler and J. L. Carlton, "Employment and Underemployment of Rural People in the Ozark Area," University Of Kansas Agricultural EXperiment Stayion Bulletin, No. 60h "" (1958); Stephengi. Schensul er al., "The Twilight Zone of Poverty: A New Perspective on An Economically Depressed Area," Human Organization, XXVII (Spring, 1968), 30-40. 22 FIGURE 3 HYPOTHESIZED SPATIAL CHANGE IN THE DEPOPULATING REGION W 1: Spatial Process Outmigration II: Structural Impact Component Effect Demographic Structure Depopulation Economic Structure Economic Stagnation and Decline Political Structure Emerging Political Minorities Psychological Changing Environmental Character Perception Social Organization Spatial Centralization of Institutions III: Changing Spatial Patterns Population Redistribution Urban Decline Abandonment of Farms, Fishing Hamlets, and Public Structures and Service Systems Relative Deterioration of Remaining Occupied Areas H Source: Compiled by author. and 1 decl: int (IA 0 0 s 23 36 .. and population replacement rates. In fact, an absolute decline will result in a changing age structure which will in turn lead to stagnation and decay."37 2. Social organization. Outmigration becomes a social tradition as friends and family who have already migrated provide a powerful attractive force on those who 38 remain. The traditional family organization is broken up:39 40 the educational level is lowered: and the burden to pay for the upkeep of public services, including social welfare, I increases with the proportional rise in the relative impor- tance of the inactive population.“1 3. Economic structure. Selectivity in migration, in terms of age, education and occupation, creates conditiOns 36D G s . p . . ymes, The P0 ulation Resources of the Connemar Gaeltacht: An Anal sis of Em lo ment'PotentiaIWTfiull, ““ England: The University of Hull, Department of Geography, 1965). 37United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, "Problems of Regional Development and Industrial Location in Europe," Economic Survey of Europe (195h), 1&9. 38David Lowenthal and Lambros Comitas, "Emigration and Depopulation," Geo ra hical Review, LII (April, 1962), 195-210: Symes, Populaéion Resources. 39Edward C. Banfield and Laura E. Ranfield, $32 Moral Basis of A Backward Sbciet (Glencoe, Illinois: The Free ress, 9 0: Ber F. ose ' z, Sociological Aspects 9: Economic Growth (Glencoe, Illinois: The FreePress, 1960). OMancio Rossi-Doria, "Problems of Planning in Under- developed Areas," Sociologia Ruralis, II (1962), 110. ulDale E. Hathaway, "Migration From Agriculture, the Historical Record and Its Meaning," American Economic Review, L (May, 1960), 390: Brian ReenanT-VTfiE-PEEETEETEE of Dunedin," New Zealand Geographer, XXI (1965), 53-6“; Rossi-Doria, “PrOEIéms of Planning. 110; United Nations, ”Problems of Regional Development," 1&8. in t} 2A in the outmigration area which tends to retard recombination of the remaining resources:u2 so outmigration may not have the anticipated positive effects on mechanization in agri- an and culture.43 In fact, decreasing standards of husbandry disruptive changes in agricultural land useus may be notable effects. Competitive adjustments in primary industries lag behind those of other regions,“ thus one may expect an increasing dependency on outside resources and employment. With continuing depopulation, purchasing power will decrease below certain minimum thresholds necessary for production, sales and services so entrepreneurs may curtail or cease u operation. Local credit restrictions will make it increasing- ly difficult for local firms to survive: a decline in real 2H. R. Jones, "A Study of Rural Migration in Central WalBS." Transactions of the British_Institute of Geographers, XXXVII (19657} 314U5: uBHathaway, "Migration From Agriculture," 385; United Nations, "Problems of Regional Development," 148. uuAa H. Kampp, "Landbrug i den Nordlige Del af Me1¢y Herred," Geografisk Tidsskrift, LXI (1962), 99-118. #5130 Chr‘ist‘enson., "Anienedalen'- ett Italienskt av- folkningsomrade," Forsknin srapporter, (Uppsala Univer- sitetet, Kulturgeografiska Institutionen) X (1968), l-h7. Metzler and Carlton, "Underemployment of Rural People." . . U7Banfield and Ranfield, The Moral Basis: R. A. Galley, "Settlement and Population in the Aran Islands," Irish Geography, IV (1959), 65-78; Lowenthal and Comitas, "Emigration and Depopulation.“ 48J. B. Parr, "Outmigration and the Depressed Area Problem,” Land Economics, XLII (May, 1966), 15k. 25 49 estate values will set in and the tax base will decrease. In sum, migration debilitates the economy of the origin- ating region.50 h. Psychological character. People left behind will increasingly show signs of resignation, apathy and compla- cency, and lack of optimism and progressive thinking.51 In a more generalized form the model contains the basic relationships of vigorously growing urban places, within or outside the study region, which attract young jobseekers at the expense of areas less able to provide similar opportunities. Therefore the migration process is en the one hand a positive factor in enabling continued population growth with concomittant economic expansion of urban places, and on the other hand it contributes at least potentially to disaffection and economic decline in areas of E 9Charles L. Leven, "Population, Migration, and Regional Economic Development," Current Economic Comment, XXI (1959), jl-UZ; Parr, 'Outmigration,” 153. 50Gunnar Myrdal, Economic Theory and Underdeveloped Resions, (London: Methuen, 1957); See also, Frank T. Bacfiamura, "Migration cand Factor Adjustment in Lower Mississippi valley Agriculture," Journal of Farm Economics, XXXVIII (November, 1956), 102héfi2: Charles E} Bishop, "Economic Development and Adjustments in Southeastern Low Income Agri— culture," Journal of Farm Economics, XXXVI (December, 1954); R. G. Ironside, "Britain's Rural Area, Problems, and Prospects," Occasional Papers in Geography, Canadian Association of Geograp ers, British Columbia Division, VI (1964), 53-65; H. J. Johnston, "Components and Correlates of Victorian Rural POpulation Change," Australian Geographical Studies, V (1967). 165-81. l Lowenthal and Comitas, "Emigration and Depopulation;" SymeS."Population Resources) D. Turnock, "Population Studies and Regional Development in West Highland Scotland," Geogrériska Annaler, IL—B (1967). 260-70. 26 large scale net—outmigration. It is a major goal of this study to test this generalized descriptive migration model in Nordland County; gummary'q§;3e§earch Objectives The underlying assumption of this study is that human ungration is a major factor leading to or resulting from regional differences in.economic and social welfare. There- fore this analysis initially develops a theoretical frame- work within which the implications of Spatial variation in migration may be diagnosed. A major objective is to discover the nature of recent migration streams and then to substan- tiate the existence of the forces and processes thought to influence them. Specifically the objective is to assess the relation to and impact of the processes of urbanization, suburbanization, industrialization, depOpulation, and decision making. The periodic dissimilarities in the roles played by these different processes as they govern migration will be identified. The study seeks to discover the extent to which the migration process in Nordland County, Norway, affects nega- tively or positively the conditions of life and livelihood. Implications for regional develOpment planning will be noted. Specific research hypotheses deriving from the theoretical framework and models presented in Chapter II will be intro- duced in appropriate sections and tested to assess the validity of migration relationships and conditions thought 27' to exist in the study area. The discovery of the more precise nature of the relationships existing between major spatial processes as well as the impact of these processes upon geographical patterns will hopefully contribute toward the deve10pment of general theory in geography. CHAPTER III EVOLUTION OF NORDLAND COUNTY SETTLEMENT PATTERNS This chapter will introduce the character of land and life in Nordland County and show how they are continually shaped and reshaped by changing socio—economic and demo- graphic conditions. The initial portion will set the stage through a brief overview of the historical impress of man on the land. This will be followed by a more penetrating look at recent changes in population settlement patterns. Population and Economy in Nordland Nordland County is a long, slender, and physio- graphically complex region bisected by the Arctic Circle (see Figure 1). The form of the landscape evolved largely from Quartenary glacial erosion and subsequent land uplift. Its present appearance alternates from groups of rugged islands almost devoid of trees to the fjorded coast where sinuous arms of the sea reaches far into the mainland. The interior is a barren upland plateau area cut deeply in Places by long valleys lush in vegetation. In spite of its extreme northerly location this Part of Norway shows evidence of human settlement from the 28 29 time of Fosna culture (c. 7000-h500B. 0.).1 Up through the Middle Ages, people showed a particular affinity for an island or coastal location. The climate here ranges up to 25° C higher than the norm for the latitude, and the sea offers an.abundance of fish of various species. Especially important in influencing the early settlement pattern has been the annual return of the cod to the Lofoten spawning grounds during the months of January through April (see Figure h). The existence of the strandflat, a fairly extensive coastal platform resulting from the erosional activity of past glaciers and wave action,2 tOgether with climatic mild- ness has permitted an early deve10pment of agricultural lands (see Figure 5). These have subsequently become the tradition- al subsidiary support of a pOpulation engaged predomi- nantly in fishing and related activities. Settlement has since expanded toward the interior fjords and valleys with agriculture, particularly emphasizing fodder crOps, cattle, and sheep, assuming a greater role in the local economy. he discovery of minerals and increasing exploitation of the crest resources of the southern interior valleys have ‘ncouraged greater concentration of people in the interior (see Figure 6). "TE .— Povl Simonsen, "The History of Settlement, " in orwa North of 6 ed. by flrnulv Vorren (0310: University 'ress, .o , 00-51. 2K. Landmark, at al., "Northern Norway: Nature and agelihood, " Norsg Geoggafisk WTidsskrif XVII (1959-1960), -. 91 ,1 i ‘Illl 1|.lll \J 30 Figure 4.--Lofoten fishing village of Stamsund on sheltered eastern shore of Vestvagdy and adjacent to the rich cod spawning ground in the Vestfjord. The Lofoten vulcanic arch rises prominently in the backfround. Figure 5.--Sma11 dairy farm on strandflat covered with morainic materials. Pr¢nn¢y kommune in Coastal Helmeland. 31 Figure 6.-—Interior Helgeland. The agriculture-forestry combination of economic activity is favored here. Farms are small and the growing season short. With increasing emphasis upon mechanization and full-time employment in forestry many farms are being abandoned. Fizure 7.--Densely populated interior valley on Vestvagdy, Lofoten. The fishing-farming combination is most common though people thus engaged are on lowest level in income. 32 Nordland County has presently (1969) 6.5 per cent of the nation's population distributed over 11.5 per cent of its land suface. This gives the county a population density slightly more than half of the Norwegian average of 12.5 people per kmz. Great internal variation exists with some coastal and island areas being quite densely populated.‘ Infoten, for example, has more than 25 per km2 (see Figure 11). Rural population (fifty-nine per cent in 1969) dominates throughout the county (see Figure 7). When industrialization became an important aspect of Norwegian life,Northern Norway was left behind. Sufficient risk capital was not available for industrial development in an area remote from major internal markets and urban con- centrations. The communication difficulties between small and quite dispersed local market centers are a major barrier to social and economic interaction (see Figure 8). Southern Norway benefitted from a rapidly expanding railnet but the rails did not reach as far north as Mosjcen until 19u0 and Bod¢ until 1962. With industrial eXpansion elsewhere in the country, Nordland's competitive position became even less tenable. Marked regional developmental differences evolved, When industry did locate within the county it was based upon local natural resources and rarely progressed beyond extracting and/or primary processing (see Figure 9). Early investments in minerals extraction took place in an almOSt des capitalizinq colonial tradition with, for example, the Swe SulitJelma copper and the British developins Dunderland 5L, 33 Figure 8.--The harbor at Brflnndysund, one of a few towns which have been able to capitalize on a coastal location in Helgeland. The region is seeing a maJor shift in the regional transportation system away from coastal shipping to the rapidly improving interior rail and road network. built Figure 9.--A rt of the Mosjoen industrial complex Primariliaon the basis of available hydroelectric power. Primary aluminum processing depends almost entirely upon foreign markets. 34 iron ore. English businessmen also invested in Lofoten fish 011 plants and brought several decades of prosperity to the Interior Helgeland region through lumbering until resources gave out (see Figure 11). Nordland has traditionally exhibited the typical dependence of an economically marginal area upon eXport markets for extractive products whether derived from fishing, minerals, or other primary processing. Marked internal differences in the physical landscape, economic activities, and social characteristics give the area a distinctive geographic flavor. This will now be explored with respect to recent patterns of population change and the spatial processes at work within the county. A Historical Comparison of Population Growth in Norway and Nordland County Temporal patterns of population change in Nordland County reveal the recency of rapid socio-economic shifts particularly in the direction of increased urbanization and rural population decrease. This feature has meant a telescopic effect of present-day change. Thus what is happening may be likened to the rapid, even catastrophic change that is currently taking place in lesser developed nations. A brief look at population growth and urbanization in Norway since 1845 is helpful in comparing the expansions and contractions within Nordland (see Table I). Probably the 35 magmaaw>m noes .mpmb popoofiaoo m.aogusm one 02a «0 .Am0ma .QQSDHmnpcwm smapmapmpm .onov MMapmapmpm amapopmam .moasom * maa.0sm * * a i * osma 0.0 mma.amm 0.HH H.m0 0.0m 0.Na smm.am0.0 000a 0.0 s0:.amm 0.0a N.N0 o.om 0.as 0:0.0sm.0 o0ma 0.0 omm.00a H.m 0.0m 0.0a a.m0 sma.sam.m omma 0.0 asa.m0a m.s 0.0m s.s 0.:0 mmo.osm.m coma 5.0 000.0oa 0.0 H.0H 0.0 0.0a oom.0om.a 0s0a 0.0 mam.00 0.: N.ma 0.0 a.:m Haa.mmm.a 0:0H commasaom nonmasaom HmpOp mo w coapmasaom ax Hon nozsaaox .aHomCom maomsmam godpmasaom m.ccmaoaoz pcmacaoz compmfisaom copy: m noSSEon amasm a Hmpoe Ham» osman0sma .one HH> He > >H HHH HH H Igafioo mfloamcofidfl 0 000 OHDGAHGKV mmHquoo — 4-9/1000 NET OUT-MIGRATION O‘O/IOOO -— 4~9/Iooo 5~O/\ooo - 9v9/|oo<> lo~0/‘ooo - ‘4-9/Iooo ‘5-0/nooo — l99/uooo N 20o/mo - 2453/1000 - 25-O/IOOO“ 29-9/uood - 30.0/000— and less a o ' ' . ‘ es: - é» I. -,.~‘ " e o ... -' ‘9 O. “3%. -¢o ". O 20 40 60 MI 6 .' ® .__¥ . - °’ '— . - TRENA o 50 IOO Km ' ' '. ‘ 89 Elsfjord (-38.0/1000) and Sdrrana (-u5.7/1000). The migration loss of nearly five per cent of the total population each year for five years in Sdrrana is the greatest absorbed by any district during the four periods studied and reflects again the migration behavior characteristic of rural, largely agriculturel, districts in close proximity to districts where employment opportunities have rapidly expanded. There is little to note of major consequence in the remainder of Nordland. Narvik continues to attract a limited number of migrants, now to the benefit also of Ankenes (2.1/1000). The districts most adjacent absorb the greatest relative losses. On the islands Andenes (7.7/1000) attracts migrants though at a slower pace. A summary of findings deriving from the 1957-1961 migration analysis adds little to conclusions earlier presented. Proximity and rurality continue to be major aspects of the migration tendency. The apparent lack of reluctance to exchange traditional livelihoods for new employment oppor- tunities seems to be a function also of agricultural depend— ency. But more about this facet in the next chapter. Interregional Migration in_Nordland, 1969-1966.--No meaningful comparative analysis can be performed on migrational behavior during 1962 and 1963 due to the extensive boundary revisions and kommune consolidations taking place these years. The net effect of this wholesale administrative change of major consequence to a migration study has been the absorbtion by 90 most large urban places of their developing suburbs in what formerly were adjacent independent kommuner. Except in the case of Narvik-Ankenes where consolidation did not take place, it is no longer possible to record suburban growth on the kommune level of aggregation. In essence this means that the strong contrasts between districts with large gains and those of great losses have in most instances been absorbed through administrative revisions. A look at the frequency diagrams of the migration rates for the four different time periods will confirm this (see Figure 25). The various measures of central tendency, the standard deviation, skewness, and kurtosis, have changed to show a greater clustering around the mean. The Coastal Helgeland region now includes the only district exhibiting large scale outmigration ranging from Brdnnfiy (-9.0/1000) to Vevelstad (~28.3/1000) (see Figure 23). Meldy, which was not affected by administration reorganization, shows a net migration rate of -9.8/1000 after several years of industry stimulated inmigration. This identifies a persistent problem in Nordland. New industry does not neces- sarily lay the foundation for self-sustained growth especially if situated in a relatively peripheral location, such as in Me1¢Y. Interior Helgeland and South Salten has the anticipated gains in Vefsn (Mosj¢en), Rana (No), and Bodin (Bode). Particularly Rana continues to attract migrants at a high rate. Aside from these developing urban centers no other 91 FIGURE 23 : NET Migration Rafe l964-l966 ' ‘ -- D ROST Annual Average NET IN-MIGRATION ISO/woo — and more m lo'o/IOOO — l49/1000 50/,000 ~ 9-9/Iooo O-O/Iooo — 49/1000 NET OUT-MIGRATION 00/1000 — 49/1000 5-O/Iooo - 9-9/Iooo IO~o/Iooo — '4'9/l000 N I5~0/moo — I953/1000 m ZOO/[coo — 24-9/Iooo - 25-0/1000- 299/1000 - 30.0/000— and less . R55T . " ' - “a". 0‘. .’ . .é . a ..00‘ “a ' a -. ’-‘ 3 0 20 ,- 6. " '0 a”. 40 66 IA .' .,_. aw“ o 50 . ..m M ‘ _ ...» TR£NA 92 kommune has a positive net migration rate. In fact, out- migration is generally intense with four of eight rural districts in excess of -20.0/1000. The location of these four districts lends support to Norling's thesis that "the process of rural depopulation and its variations in time and space may be thought of as the spread of an idea, namely the idea to leave isolated low income areas for large villages, towns, and cities."8 It is quite likely that rural depopulation can be best described as a spatial diffusion process in which an increasing propensity to move to a given location gradually diffuses through the landscape. No further attempt will be made at this point to prove or disprove this thesis, but the reader is encouraged to compare the changing net migration rates of Grane, Hattfjelldal.and Beiarn, for example, up through this period of analysis. Given the administrative changes and their migration behavior history, North Salten and Ofoten exhibit unexpectedly strong internal contrasts in net migration rates for the 196M to 1966 period .. Two Conditions are well illustrated and both contribute to interregional differences. The sub— urbanization process in the Narvik area has gone to the point of a negative net migration rate for the city (~9.7/1000), with the positive rate for Ankenes greater than at any time in the past. Secondly. large scale outmigration from —_‘ 8eunnar Norling, ”Abandonment of Rural Settlement in Vasterbotten Lappmark, North Sweden," Geografiska Annaler, XLII (1960), 232-u3. 93 Ballangen (-37.5/1000) is less a function of the Narvik area's attractiveness than the shutting down of a major source of local employment, the Bjdrkasen iron ore mines in February, 196a. Migration behavior on the islands remains remarkably constant, particularly in Lofoten., In Vesteralen some of the interregional contrasts have been engulfed by administra- tive boundary revisions, as, for example, in Andenes. Within both island regions many more people are leaving than entering. The extent to which this condition is tied to moderniZation and centralization of the fishing industry will be explored later in this study. lgterregional Migration in Nordlandl_l967-l969.--The striking picture of net outmigration in all of Nordland's kommuner, urban as well as rural, comes into focus as the net migration rates for the 1967-1969 period are surveyed (see Figure 2h). Only two districts are sustaining a net inmigration, the administrative center of Bodd (0.1/1000), and its neighbor, Fauske (2.h/1000). The latter is apparently the main bene- ficiary of the 8180 hydroelectric power dam construction and the associated eXpansion of the Salten Verk (primary pro- duction of ferrosilicon) in adjacent Sdrfold. Elsewhere the county seems to have adjusted to an almost spatially even net outflow of people. Notable is the abrupt shift to net outmigration in the industrial kommuner of Vefsn (~1.h/lOOO), Rana (-7.5/1000); and Meldy (~19.5/1000). Kommuner with 91l- FIGURE 21+: NET Migration Rafe I9674969 Annual Average NET lN-MIGRATION I50/loco — and more N lo-O/uwo - '4-9/Iooo 50/1000 - 9-9/looo O-O/Iooo ~ 49/1000 NET OUT-MIGRATION O'O/IOOO — 43/:000 50/1000 — 99/2000 lo~0/Iooo - '49/1000 - ISO/.000 _ les/.00, _ ZOO/woo - 24~9/Iooo - 250/.000 - 299/1000 - 30‘0/000— and less ' l '- . '. ‘ y . °¢ . O ‘ O a ‘6 .5. ° 0?} .-. 4;, 60 rm ‘. o l °-. C cm mC mr "3;? TR£NA 95 important service centers fare little better, for example, Brfinndy (-8.8/lOOO), Alstahaug (-9.l/1000), Narvik (-12.1/lOOO), and Vegan (-16.5/1000). In general it is the coastal and island areas which show the highest rates of net outmigration. Moreover, the weight of the outflow has shifted away from its formerly prominent southern position in the county during the initial study period to a more northerly location (compare Figures 21+ and 21) . To gain a more penetrating understanding of temporal changes in migration rates, their frequency distributions are compared (see Figure 25). The mean, which may conveniently be thought of as each distribution's center of gravity, is persistently negative; in fact increasingly so, as it moves from -10/1000 in the 1950's to -iu/iooo in the 1960’s. Standard deviation, skewness, and kurtosis, all of which measure data dispersion, change in the direction of increas- ingly closer grouping of the observations and approximation of the normal curve. The standard deviation decreases markedly from a high of 17.5 to 7.6 thus indicating the lessening range of values through time. Skewness, which measures assymmetry, decreases from 1.82 to .023. Perfect Symmetry is attained with a reading of 0.0. Kurtosis, indicating the spread of the frequency distribution, is equal to 3.0 under conditons of normality; thus normality is approached with a kurtosis changing from 7.82 to 2.43. In sum, on the kommune level of aggregation, Nordland County has moved persistently away from the spatially strong 96 FIGURE 25: FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTIONS 0F MIGRATION AVERAGES, NORDLAND COUNTY KOMMUNEB # Cases 1951-1957: Mean -10.1 Standard Deviation 13.6 Skewness 1.31 Kurtosis 5.01 20 Significance of Mean (.0005 10 0 AlJLn' LT fir -3O -20 ~10 0 10 20 30 #0 1957-1961: Mean -10.u Standard Deviation 17.5 Skewness 1.82 20 Kurtosis 7.82 ‘ Significance of Mean <.0005 10. o 11 1. J 1 J -3 10 20 30 DC 50 1964-1966 Mean -1h.h Standard Deviation 10.1 Skewness 0.96 20 Kurtosis 5.12 ‘ Significance of Mean (.0005 10 ‘ 0 [I n|JfldllLlfl iJJL 1L ;; f _j -30 -2 .16 V o 16 20 30 1967-1969 Mean -1h.3 Standard Deviation 7.55 Skewness 0.23 20 1 Kurtosis 2.h3 Significance of Mean (.0005 10 1 0 III“ 1111 -30 -20 -10 6 16* zb 36 *IT 97 contrasts in migration behavior of the 1950's. Analysis of changing migration patterns reveal a number of basic relation- ships. The migration process added initially a relatively great number of people to the industrializing urban areas. This net inmigration reached its peak for the several urban places at different times. Nonetheless, the peak was attained and was followed by decreasing net inflow, and finallly net outmigration, leading to the conclusion that none of the manufacturing centers expanded to the point of selfsustained growth. Secondly, the migration process tapped first those districts in closest proximity to the urban places. Sub- sequently the rate of outflow increased in the more peripher- ally located areas and decreased to the point of net in- migration in communities which, in the suburban sense, began acting as reservoirs for urban overspill, as was true in the \ case of Narvik-Ankenes. Thirdly, on a larger scale it was shown that the spatial mobility contrasts tend to move in one large wavelike motion from initially strong in the southern portion of the county, which is closer to the urban areas of southern Norway, to finally only relatively strong in the northern portion. All of these temporal-spatial changes in the migration process tend to support the Norling thesis earlier quoted that migration as a spatial process can be defined in the language of diffusion theory. 98 Relating Migration to Other Spatial Processes and Patterns in Nordland Procedural Problems.--The preceeding section identified the changing migration patterns in Nordland over the past two decades and offers a few generalizations regarding their evolution. These generalizations may be considered as a kind of progress report based upon the interpretation of evidence thus far accrued. In addition they support the formulation of a number of statistical hypotheses which will hopefully engender a more penetrating view of spatial process inter- relations. As will shortly be obvious these hypotheses are not couched if! the formal non-deductive probability language normally prescribed for the testing of statistical hypotheses. It is commonly held that statistical tests are in order only when applied to a sample:9 a condition which this study does not meet since the statistical population herein used (Nordland kommuner)constitute the universe (Nordland County). One way around this is to view the kommuner as a set of all minor civil divisions found in environs similar to that of Nordland. And it has been previously argued that Nordland County is representative of regional economic depression, social lag, and net outmigration not only within Norway, but within other economically developed areas in the world. A logical argument supporting the use of statistical hypotheses — 9David Harvey, Explanation in Geography (New York: St. Martin's Press, l9697]4281-86. 99 framed in probability language can be constructed but need not be in this particular situation. The primary intent at present is to gauge the direction and strength of asso- ciations found between migration behavior and a range of existing spatial processes and patterns as these reflect conditions of life within the study region. Substantive inferences deriving from the findings will focus upon future changes in the character of Nordland's socio-economic con- ditions and cultural landscape as contrasted to the identi- fication of conditions in similar environments elsewhere in Norway, or in the world. Using the previously derived dimensions (see Chapter IV) in this analysis poses a major problem. The factorial ecologies earlier performed include those migration variables now to be correlated thus inhibiting the necessary assumption of variable independence. It is, however, a simple matter of running additional factor analyses without the offending variables, therefore none of the variables strongly contributing to the demographic change dimension will be included. An additional reason for this latter data structure modification will become apparent in Chapter VII. Reshuffling of the data structure means a final use of twenty-seven variables for Phase I (l9u7-1962), and thirty-one variables for Phase II (196h-1970). Employing the same factor analytic approach applied in Chapter IV eight factors are rotated in Phase I with a Proportion of total variance explained of .7833. These lOO dimensions are individually listed in Table 9. In Table 10 are listed the nine factors extracted for Phase II. The proportion of total variance explained in this phase is .8003. The factor analysis in Chapter IV will hereafter be referred to as Run One andthe present factor analysis as Run Two. Table 11 shows comparatively'the results of the two runs in terms of the dimensions Judgedmost significant to the research objectives. Hypotheses and Their Testing.--With the dimensions of spatial processes and patterns as the independent variables (see Table 11) the following listing defines the dependent migration variables: Y1 - Pro mille annual average net migration, 1951-1957 Y2 - Pro mille annual average net migration, 1957-1961 Y3 - Pro mille annual average net migration, 196b-1966 Yb - Pro mille annual average net migration, 1967-1969 The strength and direction of relationships existing between the two sets of variables are established by means of a simple correlation-regression analysis. A summary of correlated variables, the pertinent hypotheses, and the research findings is shown in Table 12. Summary of Findings.~-The results support the leading hypothesis of the existence of a strong correlation between the urban— ization process and migration. Urban areas act as powerful magnets in attracting migrants from rural areas; in fact, the more rural the kommune the greater the relative degree 101 .hozusm an ooadaeoo .oohdom II: lilnnxillll. . . ca Heb memo. memo. cmwo. oomo. same. name. mama. somm co cowmuowoum Illlw . . oommHemm Hem mm. mm mm.| om >EMm .wm He. 20.: oo w2 .m on. Hm.u om.- He. mm mom; .m as. an.. em. on a HH> H> > >H HHH HH ncasaoo mconcosao coco macadam> mmHBHA mmmo. mono. omoo. mono. ammo. Hemo. ammo. swoo Nmom co coHpnoaoam . .I uoaqwQ .mm om. mm. DHma .mH ms. bo.- s:.- mzmmmzoo .m om. mm.- me. we mom HH> H> a >H HHH HH H ucsaaoo mconcoaHa coco oHpaHaa> mmHquH m 2 o.m H> Iwcfihduoamdcmw '00. smog mom H> O... *Cmohc. a... *CMoz ONHm cadpmflsaom . . mammxmsm mow HH 0 m > d m HH dom HH HwhfiuHfiodhm¢ mcfigmam H.s HHH> m.mH HH «.0 HHH e.m HHH> -wcHasuomesemz coHp m.m HHH d.w HHH> m.m >H 5.: > ImNHHmHaumsonH mow H m.mm H H.0N H 0.3 >H 53333.5 .00. ago: 00.. *omow/H HOWH > NOQH H ”Ugwso oHsawawoaoQ mocmHhm> oocmth> oocmahm> oocwfiawb monmaoaHQ pcoo Mom Hopomm unoo Mom honoam unmo hem Honomm pcoo Mom honomm HH omomm H swarm HH smash H ommmm 039 23m mzo zbm MOOQODm QHBHpHmom H .Hscsz ..OHam4-wwx HbmH-ammH ..ope :oHpeHuH: so? mum» mm. sHmm. mpHpHmom H .ezcmz ..OHHw<- ox ammH-HmaH ..mpe eoHpmasz poz m-HH .m.z :mmm. mpHpHmom H .eoprHuaOm-ax HomH-smmH ..o>< coprHeHa poz a-NH mm. comm. o>HpHmom H .coHpmHsoom- x mmmaszmH ..o>< coHpmeHz pmz m-Hw .m.z eHoo. mprmsoz HH .oHSpHsoHawgamx momH-somH ..w>¢ :oHumeHa pmz s-ew .m.z omoo.- o>prsmz HH .maspHSoHam<-mx momH-somH ..m>< :oHpmaeHa pea a-mw .m.z Nmoo.- opHpawaz H .mnspH50Hnwe-sx HomH-emmH ..m>< coHumHeHx pmz a-NH .m.z mHmm.- m>Hpmmoz H .ohdeSoHnwg- x smmH-HmmH ..o>< coHumHaHz pmz w-HH .m.z memH. mpHpHmoa HH ..gmHe ..escmz-ox momH-sboH ..o>< goHpmnaHz use WLHH .m.z :Hwo. m>HuHmom HH ..smHa ..eeeaz-mx momH-eomH ..m>< copranz pwz m-mH mm. Hoom. prpHmoH H ..smHm ..esmwz-mx HcmH-smmH ..m>< :oHumneHz pea m-NH mm. soon. m>HuHmom H ..SmHa ..Hscez- x smmH-HmmH ..m>< CoHpsHmHa s02 \-HH .m.z memo. o>Hprom HH HmHHpmsocH-ex momH-somH ..mpe coHpmaaHz pmz mnmw .m.z oeHH. mpHprom HH HaanmsonH-mx oomH-eme ..m>< eoHpmast pmz m H .m.z memo. mpHpHmoH H HmanmsocH-mx HomH-ammH ..mpe :oHpmust uoz a-mw «.m.z semH.- m>HuHmom H HaHaumsecH-Nx smmH-HmmH ..m>« :oHpeHmHz pea m- H mm. mwam. obmpmmom HH .aoHpmNchnhblmx awmaammoa ..o>< coHponHz no: w: M . :w . 0» p mom HH .coHpmNHssDADI x womaldoma ..o>< :oHpmasz p02 m: M mm. mHme. opHpHmom H .soprNHcenup-Hx HbmH-smmH ..o>¢ eoHpmeHz ps2 e-NH mm. mmmm. osHpHmom H .coHpeNHeepnp-Hx emaH-HmoH ..m>< coprHeHz poz i-HH :oHumHom moHanhm> mmHQdHHmb H.Q.m H ooNHmosuonhm pneumoaoogH pnocgmaom OZHDZHM mom¢mmmm 92¢ .mmmmmaomwm .mmqm NH mdm<9 105 of net outmigration. The relationships between the two pro- cesses are strengthened through time beginning with a rela- tively low correlation coefficent of .2959 for the 1951-1957 period and reaching a high of .58h3 for the l96h-l966 period. A slightly lower r value for the most recent period reflects the tendency toward migration stability in the more urban kommuner during the 1960's. This tendency was-clearly identified in the initial section of this chapter (see Figure 2h). Migration was found to beless clearly related to industrialization. Reasons for this are thought to include the relatively weak statistical position of this dimension in the data as well as in the nature of the contributing variables. A stronger dimension more readily definable may give greater strength to the industrialization-migration hypotheses. The manufacturing-fishing dimension aligns the kommuner on a continuum from those with a high percentile employment in manufacturing industry to those with a high percentile employment in fishing. The expected relationship between this dimension and migration is supported by the correlation analysis for Phase I only. Centers of manufactur- ing served as points of attraction for migrants, while the typical fishing kommune made relatively large contributions to the migration streams. This is at least true in the 1950's. For the 1960's this relationship might have weakened. It is difficult to assess since the dimension may have changed Slightly in character due to the absence of employment Statistics. 106 In relating migration to agricultural conditions it was hypothesized that people would move away from those areas most heavily committed to the rural pursuit of agriculture (agricultural emphasis dimension) but in the direction of those areas which experienced an eXpansion in agriculture when this coincided with an expansion in manufacturing employment (agriculture-manufacturing expansion dimension). A statistiCally significant relationship was obtained only for the 1951-1957 migration period and this with the expansion dimension only. This latter factor did not appear in the Phase II analysis. Another factor which appeared only in Phase I was identified as a population size dimension. Such a variable has with Some degree of frequency been related to migration in the literature.10 It is postulated that the greater the population size of the kommune the less its net out- migration or the greater its net inmigration. The relation- ship was found statistically significant for the 1951-1957 migration period but only at the .95 level. The population size variable used in Phase II rather than emerging as a contributor to a size dimension joined the variables which grouped under urbanization. This indicates that the expected close affiliation between increasing size of the population mass and urbanization has been enhanced by the administrative 10 See, for example, Claes-Fredrik Claeson, "Zone Preference in Intrarogional Population Movement," Geografiska Mia. L-B (1968). 133-41. 107 reorganization of the early 1960's. In this chapter has been analyzed the changing spatial character of inter-kommune migration in Nordland County over the past two decades. From initially strong areal contrasts in migration behavior almost all of the county‘s districts now exhibit a small range in their net outmigration rates. The relationship of a number of spatial processes, identified through factor analysis, to migration is found to be increas- ingly strong and time—space persistent only in the case of urbanization. Industrialization is a process of decreasing influence possibly because it is gradually merging with urbanization and thus losing much of its independent character. Agricultural emphasis and population size factors are found to be correlated with migration in a slight degree. The next chapter will consider in some detail the effects on migration of the decision making process. This process is comprehensive in scope and intermittent in its impact through time and space and therefore does not lend itself readily to quantitative identification and measure- ment. CHAPTER VI THE DECISION MAKING PROCESS AND MIGRATION In the study of spatial change in the cultural region public and private decision making is viewed as a change agent which in a variety of ways enhances or directly stimulates the evolution of spatial processes like urbanization or industrialization (see Figure 2). Were the decisions of government and private interests limited to very general concerns their impact upon spatial flows like migration streams mighttuadifficult to discern. However, in North Norway a major characteristic of the decision making process for the past several decades is its very comprehensive and compart- mentalized scope. As pursued by the government in its efforts to achieve national and regional development goals this process plays a significant role in inducing or deterring migration Streams and as such merits special attention in this study. Government decision making reflects in general the national interest in; a. reconciling the need for a wide and popular participation in political life; b. satisfying a need for highly integrated and effective leadership; and c. attaining greater status through improved social 108 109 1 These criteria are relevant for the initiation of mobility. government activity throughout the country. Thus the central government has influenced life in Nordland as it has in all other counties through a diversity of policies implemented by the central ministries and departments, and through its influence on local and regional administrations. The nature of this study suggests that an attempt be made to distinguish between this kind of government decision making and the decisions motivated by purely regional developmental concerns. On the one hand this regional policy concern has stabilized demographic conditions in some areas and encouraged an increase in the outmigration rate else- where. On the other hand the spatially more broadly conceived national government policies have proven to be universally detrimental to demographic stability. That is. they have consistently improved conditions favoring higher rates of outmigration from the more peripheral locations within Nordland County and possibly from the county as a whole. The relationship existing between government decision making and the migration process will be explored in terms of these two basic components, decision making in support of national goals and in support of regional development objectives. 1David E. Apter, ”Nationalism, Government, and EconOmic Growth," Economic Development and Culture Change, VII (January. 1959). 117. 7110 Decision Making: Achieving National Goals Broadly conceived national government objectives as they particularly affect the economically marginal region evolve from the popular desires for full employment, per- sistent economic growth, and an equal share in the social welfare legislation and the nationwide improving conditions of life. The fact that economic development and concom- mitant personal attainment has not permeated the landscape with an equal Speed and intensity has simply meant a favoring in some national programs of those areas which were left behind. These government measures will be examined in some detail in terms of their impact on spatial mobility patterns. Government Removal Grants.-—The Norwegian government has for some time been involved in a comprehensive program to improve the conditions of life of those who live in areas officially identified as having problems of accessibility so severe that these cannot economically be remedied by in situ state support. Such areas tend to be sparsely populated. without local central places or services, lacking in employment opportunities, and some distance from existing communication Systems, transportation arteries, and electrical power net- works. Thus they exemplify the most peripheral of life situations in the country. The expense of introducing or upgrading the life support systems generally available in a modern social wel- fare state within these areas has proven too great. As a 111 result the government enacted a removal grants program which subsidizes the migration of families to places identified as having the essential amenities. Until very recently the governmental perception and therefore determination of extreme remoteness affected only people who live on islands or on stretches of isolated fjordbottoms, people who normally derive the greater part of their cash income from fishing. For this reason the removal grants program has in the past been administered by the Department of Fisheries. In Nordland County 317 families. an estimated 1500 people, have received a total of kr. 2.3 million in removal grants from January 1, 1952 to September 1, 1969.2 The sum granted per family varied from an early year (1952-1953) average of kr. 5,000 to an average in 1969 of kr. lb.000 (compare with a 1969 Nordland mean per capita income of kr. #,688). Of the total amount funded for the 1952-1969 period two-thirds went to just eight of the forty-four kommuner. The location of these eightidentifies the continuing periphery problems of the Helgeland coast, the fjords of central Salten.r and the outer islands of Lofoten and Vesteralen (see Figure 26). Only 14.2 per cent (forty-five) of the grant families have moved from one kommune to another, the remainder have moved to a more central location within their home kommune. Thus the net effect of this type of government assistance 2Much of the subsequent information derive from an interview with Mr. Nils Gjerde, Nordland County Inspector of Fisheries, Bodd, September 9, 1969. 112 FIGURE 26: REMOVAL GRANTS PROGRAM, l952-l969 Removal Grant Fundins by Kommuner (in kr.1,000) over 100 (::> .. 50 to 99 O a)?» ‘ 10 to U9 C) “u f The number of families which have received qrants are shown for each kommune 113 i has been to further centralize the settlement pattern within the peripheral area and has not been a major factor in initiating migration between kommuner. However. it is quite likely that the initial move becomes a first stage in a family migration history which will see the second stage as migration out of the home kommune. The one-sided orientation of the removal grants program toward coastal and island districts has been the subject of increasing concern on the part of those who felt that interior isolated valley and plateau farmers may have as great a need for this kind of support. This concern culminated in a 1969 state edict that interior regions henceforth are to receive the same degree of attention on the basis of similar criteria as the coastal and island regions. Government aid may normally not eXceed kr. 30.000 under this 1 new ruling and presupposes movement of grantees to a place with employment opportunities. The state will further refund up to eighty per cent of the cost to the kommune resulting from the purchase of the grantee's house and real estate when so desired.3 The effect of extending government removal support on this scale to remote agricultural districts is difficult to measure. It will undoubtedly bring an increasing number of removal grant applications in future years until the most peripheral localities have been entirely depopulated. 3Lofot osten (Svolvaer). August 16, 1969. See also Henrik Lunae, "Oversikt over Virkemidler i Distriktsutbyggingen," Plan cg Arbeid (October, 1970), 16. 11% Though this is by far the most visible and direct government influence upon migration relatively few people are or will be affected,and in the end it will simply mean the hastening of a process already well under way without direct state interference. Post Office Centralization.--The Norwegian postal system is a major contributorinalocal employment and welfare. It operates through a hierarchical structure comprising the central office in Oslo. regional offices. and a great number of local post offices and letter stations. When a bureau- cracy this large decides to economize, following several decades of vigorous expansion in facilities and services, the effect is bound to be wide ranging and particularly notic- able in the peripheral region. The number of permanent post offices in the country increased from 2913 in 1900 to a maximum of 4996 in 1955. Then followed an abrupt decrease to 3981 by 1968, a closing down of twenty per cent in thirteen years.5 Table 13 identifies the postal service reorganization which has taken place in Nordland County from 1961 to 1968. The decrease in minor post offices and.letter stations may be expected to continue. Only one county has less people per postal service facility than does Nordland, in spite of its recent increase. It bears noting that the centraliza- tion policy in general is not influenced by a decrease in 5Norges Pcstverk Statistikkarbok, 1967 (Oslo: Poststyret, 1968). 15. 115 TABLE 13 POSTAL SERVICE IN NORDLAND. 1961-1968 Post Offices Letter Total Population Letter Volume Major Minor StatiOns per Facility per Person 1/1/61 15 u83 125 623 356 71 111/68 lb 412 81 507 483 81 Per cent change -6.7 -14.7 -35.2 -l8.6 +35.7 +11.3 Source: Norges Postverk, Statistikgarbok, 1960 (Oslo: Poststyret, 1961), 16: Nor es Poetverk Statistikkarbok. 1962 (Oslo: Poststyret, 19685, 16. """ per capita mail volume. However, it is suspected that selectivity in the process of closing down facilities is influenced by the decreasing population weights of the periphery. The impact upon a peripheral district where the local post office facility offers the only or one of a very few central place services can be quite drastic. Not only does this mean a loss of employment but it also increases the chances for an early closing of the small rural general stores whose raison d‘etre has been strongly tied to their former role as postal facilities. Though the post office centralization program undoubtedly will improve mail delivery and pick-up service the net effect within the peripheral region is an intensification of the outmigration process through the rippling effects of a decrease in central place services. ! 116 This is a sensitive issue within the Norwegian Postal Administration, a condition that may influence a more gradual reorganization program. Administration spokesmen are well aware that other government programs have been initiated with the expressed purpose of halting the outflux of people from some of the more sparsely populated regions, 6 particularly from North Norway. Regional Administrative Consolidation.—~The following are transcribed exoerpts from an interview with an elected Brflnndy 7 kommune leader. 'The kommune administration is spread over four widely separated villages. This is costly and has caused popular discontent, most of all on the part of those who must now travel great distances for local community services. One must consider this a major moment in the agitation against the newly constituted and consolidated kommune. In terms of accesssibility our problem is worsened by the centralization of some administrative functions and the continuing scatter of others. The leadership is aware of the difficulties and is striving to make improvements. To this end it unanimously supports the consolidation of all community administrative functions in a new Brpnnpysund building. An architect was appointed and presented his recommendation in 1966. Since then the matter has been alloved to rest unattended due to the increased burden upon community finances of the new schoolbuilding program.’ A Brdnndy resulted from the agglomeration January 1,. 1969 of the town of Brannoysund, the rural kommuner of S¢mna, _ 6 Conversation with Mr.Tverteraas,F1rSt Secretary in the Traffic Office of the Norwegian Postal Administration, 0810. July 9. 1969; and Torbjdrn Weiseth, Postgang en es Lands- :9 d? Omradsplanlegging (Namsos, Norway; Pr va e rinting, 7Interview with Mr. Torolf Bjorn. Speaker of Brenney KOmmune, Bronnoysund, October 21, 1968. ——-—-___ 117 Brdnney. Velfjord, and a portion of Bindal. It exemplifies the government program to improve community service efficiency while decreasing the local cost of maintaining these services (see Chapter V). Interviews conducted by the author in Vest- vagdy (formerly four separate kommuner) and evidence collected elsewhere supports the notion that the Brdnndy birth pangs are not atypical. People in the afflicted areas initially ignored or supported half-heartedly the administrative reorganization, but in many kommuner strong voices are now belatedly raised in protest to the point of vocal support for a return to the pre-consolidation condition. The change or strengthening in attitude is caused no only be a worsening of the distance problem, but also by the unexpected high cost of the transition (an estimated kr. 3 million for a new office building in Brdnndysund). In addition, those who live in the smaller former administrative centers, like Vik, Berg, and Hommelstd in Brdnndy. increasingly fear that this decrease in centrality for the reapective villages will cause a further drain in other central services coupled with an intensification of the outmigration tendency. Contrary to the feelings expressed by the Brdnndy Speaker, quoted earlier in this section, the Brenney leader- ship responded in October, 1968 to popular disatisfaction by voting twenty-eight to thirteen in favor of splitting off 8 Senna and Velfjord as independent kommuner. There are suggestions * 8Aftenposten (Oslo). October 7. 1968. 118 that the tide may since have turned against deconsolidation in Brdnndy, but for many other reconstructed communities the transition is in its most sensitive period. On the island of Vestvagoy. where the former districts of Borge, Buksnes, H01, and valberg were administratively Joined, very vigorous movement toward deconsolidation has recently been initiated.? A similar popular mood has been eXpressed in Moskenes and else; where.10 Nordland County had a thirty—six per cent decrease in local administratiVe districts in the early sixties. It is difficult to measure the effect of this upon migration. The number of people who have moved with their Jobs to the new office location is small if only because the centralization process is not yet completed in many of the new kommuner. As with the consolidation of postal services, there exists a wider impact upon the central service structure of the more peri- pheral and thinly populated areas. Recent Changes in the Educational System.--Aubert has recently stated that the school problem frequently is critical in 11 the migration decision making process. This problem is 9Lofot osten (Svolvaer), May 8, 1969, and Nordlands Framtid (Bod . August 30. 1969. loLofotposten (Svolvaer), May 21, 1969, and June 3, 1969. 11Wilhelm Aubert, "Regionalplanleggingens Sosiale Aspekter,” Tidsskriftet Socialt Arbeid, VI (1965). 178-90. 119 most acute when the pupil population base has decreased to a Point belOWtflurthreshold necessary for the maintenance of an independent school district. Then parents may consider migration to the center of a viable school district the only acceptable alternative. This is particularly true where the school lies so far from the home that the daily journey to school becomes overly time consuming,if not dangerous due to slippery roads, rocky overhangs, or impossible sea con- ditions for an otherwise seaworthy school boat. The Norwegian peripheral population sets a high prize on getting the best education available for their children. Frequently the result is an increase in the outmigration rate for those families who have children approaching school age. Loss of the community elementary school no matter 2 how small has a serious effect onlocallife. The school is accepted as a center of cultural and recreational, as well as educational activity. It is the functional community center and thus the raison d'etre of youth clubs, orchestra and chorus, scout groups, and a variety of local celebrations and festivities the year around. The district looses a significant Part of its self identity with the closing of its school and not only because its traditional functional community boundaries tYpically coincide with the school district boundary. A visible hastening of the school centralization process is occurring with the adoption of a nine year compulsory 1‘leobert Solomon, Ytre Sen a (Oslo: Norsk Institutt for BY- 0g Regionforskning, I95§}, I50. 120 13 school system. This system expands the obligatory elementary education period from seven to nine years, and is vigorously pushed by county and state authorities. The individual kommune must on its own make the decision to change and by 1969 only eight of the forty-four kommuner had not adopted the new system.lh To make this change often requires the gommune to throughly reassessitseducational structure. This can be a painful process which necessitates the Juilding of a new centrally located facility, a costly and frequently difficult and contentious location decision.1 The new facilities can- not be built without state financial support since state x accreditation is determined in part by minimum floor area and g the availablility of specialized class rooms and equipment. Thus the small kommune is faced with a momentous decision * which will impose a reordering of its community expenditure 13Many of the conclusions relating to the school situation draw heavily from interviews conducted with leading school authorities in Nordland, particularly Olav Nyaas, Nordland County Superintendent of Schools; Einar Fyhn InSpector of Schools, Vestvagdy; and Aasmund Brekke, inspector of Schools, Skjerstad; as well as numerous teachers and parents, Fall, 1969. lHAftenposten (Oslo), June 7, 1968. 15In Evenes kommune this decision was held in obeyance for years because of apparently unreconcilable demands made by the two competing settlements, Liland and Bogen. The deadlock was broken when an exasperated county administration informed the kommune that either it makes a choice or it will see its children commuting to or interned in a school of a neighboring kommune. Liland got the school and, it is suggested, Bogen lost its major industry in the process. From an interview with Mr. Corneliussen, member of Evenes community council, September 29, 1969. 121 priorities, increase taxes, incur sizeable long term indebted- ness, stir up intracommunal rivalries for the location of the new school, increase the rate of closing of the smaller and more isolated schools, and thereby also the incidence of busing if not actual internment of school children. Many examples of the difficulties involved can be cited.16 In Crane and Hattfjelldal kommuner therecommendation from the county superintendent of schools favored the joint operation of a new nine year facility in Trofors, the largest settlement in the two districts. Acceptance of this would mean having to intern upper class students not only from the more remote areas of Grane (about thirty pupils), but for most of Hattfjelldal where an excess of one hundred pupils would have to live in Trofors during the regular school week. Hattfjelldal with the larger student population decided against the recommendation and as a result must build its own facility. In Grane the new central school built at a cost of kr. 2.77 million opened August 25, 1969.17 For pur— poses of accreditation it has been built to serve a population twice the size of that currently residing in the kommune. And Grane has been afflicted with a steadily declining Population base since 1950 (see Appendix A) with no apparent hope for stabilization let alone recovery in the foreseeable 6The examples are restricted to the kommuner where the author through field work was able to gain an objective evaluation of the issues involved. 17Helgeland Arbeiderblad (Mosjden), August 25, 1969. 122 futurer Projections of future student populations in the eighuyandninth grades made by the county school administration in 1961 show an anticipated decrease of twenty-four per cent (seventy-five to fifty-seven) from 1961/62 to 1972/73. In view of the continuing net outmigration of predominantly young and middle aged families even this somber forecast must be considered optimistic. In Skjerstad kommune improvements in the transport- ation network and the centralization of the school system is now resulting in the gradual phasing out of half a dozen periphery schools. The net effect on migration is viewed by some as a two-pronged problem. Closing of the periphery schools heightens the chance for increased outmigration and possible total depopulation in their service area. And Skjerstad is now even less capable of supplying jobs to young people better educated and even more likely to seek oppor- tunities in an urban environment.18 For the local economy heavily dependent upon agriculture the future looks increas- ingly dim as the replacement rate of the agricultural labor force rapidly decreases. Almost all of the farmers are over age fifty with no one at home to take over the farm. It Should be noted that many of the more remote and thinly Populated school districts offer education down to four 18Solstad's research on nineteen predominantly rural Nordland kommuner substantiates this thesis. Se Karl Jan Solstad, "Seleksjon ved Flytting fra Utkantstrdk,“ Tids- Skrift for Samfunnforskning, IX (1968), 291-310. 123 students in a small school house with one full time teacher who is most frequently without a teaching college degree. The adoption of the central school and nine years of obligatory attendance is a measurable educational improvement. For Nordland County in general the problem is really no less acute. Though the migration stream of young- sters with completed elementary educations is oriented toward urban places within the county these as a rule are ill equipped with advanced or specialized schools. One result is a lower average educational attainment as compared with the national average. In 1963 10.4 per cent of Nordland's seventeen year olds attended college preparatory schools while the compar~ able national percentage was 19.7. The county did see an increase from 3.3 per cent in 1950 but the national increase 19 So the gap between the peripheral was from 8.9 per cent. county and the nation in fact widened during this period! Even more problematic for Nordland is the fact that one third of its college preparatory students attend a school outside the county for to attend any of the Norwegian universities and colleges, with the exoeption of teachers colleges. means having to go south. Each year one thousand young people leave for advanced education in southern Norway.20 How many of these can be expected to return? A number of other factors affect the Nordland 19Anders Madslien. Utdannelsesforhold i Nord-Norge (B°d¢s Studieselskabet for Nord-Norsk Naeringsliv. 1965). 20Lofotposten (Svolvaer), August 27, 1969. 124 educational system. The thinly spread rural population has ordained school districts with a small pupil base, frequently inadequate facilities, in remote locations,and with the asso- ciated problemcufattracting good teachers. The percentage of teachers with university degrees in Nordland is substan- tially lower than in the country as a whole, forty-two per cent versus sixty-seven per cent. No doubt that the quality of education is affected by this, particularly in the rural kommune where the contrast is even greater. Nordland has not been able to encourage.locally an interest in academia commensurate with its need for teachers. Thus the county must rely heavily upon imported manpower with a resulting high turnover rate. increased subsidy for teacher housing, and an elementary education even more geared toward the urban value system represented by most of the incoming teachers. Having established a high priority for educating its young people Nordland County has placed itself on a treadmill which seems to encourage an increase in the rate of population concentration within the county as well as an increase in the rate of selective migration out of the county. Egyernment Support of Health.--The problem of finding qualified teachers for the peripheral county in general and the remote rural locations within it more particularly is exceeded by the even greater problem of obtaining adequate health services and personel. Here as with teachers the problem tends to increase with increasing distance from a large urban area. 125 To attract doctors, dentists, nurses, medical technicians, and veterinarians the poverty stricken outlying districts must offer direct amenities even greater than do the urban areas. Thus Grane subsidizes up to sixty per cent of the rent of its medical practicioners while other kommuner must build or furnish at no or neglible cost new homes with complete 21 No county or state support furnishing and office equipment. exists for these expenses. The problem borders on the catastrophic. The problem is not confined to the more peripheral districts though it no doubt is most severe here. In Rana, which has not in the past seen fit to provide its dentists with near gratis living accommodations nine of its total of eleven dentists left town in 1969 with no replacements in sight.22 The kommune has since decided to comply with the demand for free or low cost housing and is building a number of dentist residences. As with dentists so with doctors. The two doctors in Meldy both left without immediate replacement in 1969 and the district with a population of 7386 is presently 23 serviced by an intern. Tysfjord benefitted in 1968 by the choice of a Dutch couple, both practising MD's, to spend their one year of voluntary service to an underdeveloped __ 2 1Helgeland Arbeiderblad (Mosjéen), August 19, 1969; and Nordlys (Trdfisfl), September 2h, 1969. 22Aftenposten (Oslo), February 24, 1969. 23Lofotposten (Svolvaer), May 7, 1969. "126 area in the kommune. The following year when the couple had done their stint for humanity they were replaced by an intern.2u Meanwhile the public is exhorted to forego their routine check-ups here and elsewhere in the county.25 Where medical service is available in the county it is frequently inexperienced and temporary. The state, the county, and the kommune efforts at attracting competent people thus far has had little noticable results. The effect upon population stability particularly in the more isolated and sparsely settled areas, is strongly negative. Parti- cularly the very young and the very old families are affected by this lack of medical service and are those most likely to migrate to where conditions are more favorable. Government Decision Making Within the Economic Sphere.--The process of centralization within the economic sphere has proceeded unabated since World War II. In this area it is more difficult to assess whether government intervention has aided or deterred population movement. On the one hand, it has been the awoved purpose of some of the regional development interests to halt a centralization process tied to the evolution of a nationally highly developed economy. These interests favor the maintenance of present settlement patterns. On the other hand, various government departments are in the active pursuit of a policy designed to improve ___i 2”Af‘tenposten (Oslo), September 18, 1968 and Lofotposten (Svolvaer), May 7. 1969. 25Lofotposten (Svolvaer), July 8, 1969. 127 the national and international competitive capability of all Norwegian industries primary or secondary, local or regional. This is effectively a centralization policy. The govern- ment has shown a good measure of concern for enhancing the conditions under which individual companies develop and retain an edge in the international free market. The peripheral region in Norway, as exemplified by Nordland County, is tied to the export market more so than is the remainder of the nation. At the same time this region is characterized by an overwhelming emphasis upon extractive activities. In the case of Nordland this means large scale, labor intensive fishing and agricultural industries with a lesser role played by mining and forestry. In order to main- tain a hold on the foreign market, while insuring the economic viability of the areas affected by an occasional failure of this market, the government finds it necessary to inter- cede at strategic moments. As a result a frequently dichoto- mous situation exists in which government policies often seem contradictory, particularly when an attempt is made to assess their impact on migration. A few examples are discussed below. Fishing. The fishing industry in Nordland is decidedly export oriented.26 It is further characterized by the major 26Forty to fifty per cent of the Norwegian fish exports come from the three counties of the North. This amounts to about two per cent of the total world fish catch. Chr. A. Jakhelln. ”Apning av Fiskerikonferanse," flgrggNorsk Fiskerikonferanse III (Bode: Studieselskabet for Nord-Norsk Naeringsliv, 19585: 2° 128 role played by small, inefficient fishing boats, large seasonal manpower needs, and many relatively small processing plants evenly distributed through the coastal zone. These plants, however, process only a small percentage of the Nordland fish catch much of which is dried on racks or slated. Most of the cash income for the majority of fishermen comes from the hectic thirteen week Lofoten cod season. In 1969 this provided 5126 fishermen with a catch of H3,878 ton cod valued at kr. 6% million.27 If the sale of this catch is in jeopardy the state must step in to avert a potentially catastrOphic economic loss for the region. When the author visited the area in the Fall of 1969 some of the l3§§ catch was still taking up storage space. The problem was the loss of most of the African market when the Biafran conflict prevented shipment of dried cod to Nigeria. Dried cod nor- mally comprises over fifty per cent of the total catch. To alleviate an obvious economic squeeze the government stepped in and purchased that part of the production destined for the African market at sixty per cent of the production cost. No doubt that such action is necessary to insure maintenance of the coastal population base which is com- posed largely of pecple who depend upon the cash income from seasonal fishing and who must resort to household, largely subsistence, farming for the long off-season. To reduce the problem of seasonality while establishing m 27Lofotposten (Svolvaer), April 26, 1969. 129 a more competitive climate the government encourages a deemphasis on small boats and seasonal fishing. This combin- ation comes from the existence of numerous small off shore fishing banks and its continuance insures the even spread of population in the coastal zone. The state favors the adoption instead of a highly mechanized, ocean worthy, and internationally competitive trawler fleet coupled with a greater centralization of the processing industry. It also favors a greater degree of secondary processing of fresh fish 28 to the point of local manufacture of complete fish dinners. What if the region should succeed in providing manufacturing plants for secondary processing of even one half of its fish catch? We may then expect a substantial stabilizing of the coastal economy. This will occur through the capital invest- ment, additions to value added and the permanently employed labor force, together with the rippling effects of attracted symbiotic industry and services. Unfortunately up to now the trawler fleet remains small and must confine its acti- vity to areas more than six miles off shore. This limitation was imposed for political reasons from fear of offending ‘ 28The Staburet company in Svolvaer, Lofoten, has recently embarked on an expansion of its production facilities aided by a long term, low interest government guarantee and loan. The aim is to double present production of frozen completely prepared fish dinners. ggfotposten (Svolvaer), September 13, 1969. ‘13s the owners of smaller boats.29 The fishing industryg'is obviously undergoing a period of transition. One which sees an increasing number of fishing dependent families depart the more remote locations for the nearby larger central place offering better freezing and processing facilities. At the same time the average age of those active in fishing is on an upward spiral increasing at an annual rate exceeding one year during the late nineteen 30 fifties and early sixties. Thus the younger element is leaving and efforts at finding replacements are largely failing. The technical fisheries school at Gravdal, Vest- vagoy, for example, is unable to attract more than thirty 31 students though it has a capacity of sixty. It is indeed doubtful that young people can be attracted into the fishing profession except through an expansion of the kind of year around employment opportunity offered by the large trawler. It should be noted that the number of people in 29A summary of areas where governmental organs and public law_variously regulates, controls, or influences different aspects of the fishing industry is found in Einar Moxnes, "Mynd igheternes Medvirkning med hensyn til Markeds- f¢ring of produktutvikling," Nord-Norsk Fiskerikonfergnse III, Chapter 12; see also Rolf Voldnes,."Fiskerinaeringen; en Naering i Krise," Plan og Arbeid.(June, 1969), 20-33; and Anders Aune, ”Synspunkter pa problematikk.og perspektiv i naeringsutbygging.i Nord Norge,“ Foredrag om Utbyggings og Lokaliseringssggrgsmal, Kirkenes, June, 1969 (oslo: Distr enes yggingsfond, 1968), 1-11. 30Sverre Mdller, "Utvikling av moderne fiskebater," Nord Norge, Naeringsliy cg ¢konomi, XXXI (1964). 15- 31 Helgeland Arbeiderblad (Mosjden), September 13, 1969. 131 Nordland actively pursuing fishing decreased 1960 to 1965 from 13,672 to 11,502, or sixteen per cent, while the decrease in registered fishing boasts was from 10,508 to 9,?“7, or seven per cent. Eighty per cent of the registered boats in 1965 were less than thirty feet in lmumh. This is the lower threshold value for boats generally capable of work beyond the most immediate off-shore fishing banks.32 Modernization and the associated centralization of activity is a slow but inevitable process in Nordland. The government is torn between a policy favoring a status quo of settlement and activity in the coastal region and one encouraging further economies of scale in the fishing industry. This conflict is all the more difficult to resolve as long as the majority of fishermen (6700 in 1965) are small time and part time. Agriculture. As discussed in Chapter III agriculture has not in the past been looked upon as an activity capable of supporting independently the livelihood of people in Nordland. Indeed where it exists it does so under the most fragile of ecologic and economic conditions. Generally poor soils, a brief growing season that is usually too wet, and a thinly Spread population permitting little in the way of a local market, all are conditions which tend to prevent success in agriculture. Farming, even as an occupation traditionally subsidiary to fishing, forestry, and mining, is on the decline. 32Anders Aune, "Synspunkter...," 7. 132 The total number of farms have decreased twenty five per cent from l9k9 to 1968.3 More of a problem is the high percentage of part time farmers, a total of eighty per cent in 1959. In addition the agricultural pOpulation is rapidly aging with the average age of farmers in most districts now exceeding fifty-five.31+ Governmental influence in agriculture is pervasive and varied. In general the Department of Agriculture offers a generous assortment of educational opportunities, as well as guarantees, loans or outright cash grants for costs incurred in expansion or improvement of agricultural lands, buildings and equipment.3 These aids are not geared neces- sarily toward the peripheral region. The latter, however, having greater production problems, receives more than its proportionate share. The peripheral region, especially North Norway, suffers more frequently from natural disasters or year long adverse conditions of climate as was true in 1968. In October of that year the state government granted 33Aftenposten (Oslo), April 5, 1968. 31*A wealth of material exists on the conditions of Nordland agriculture. See, for example, Nordland Landbruks- selskab Agsmelding; Norgena Nord—Norges Landbrukstidsskrift; the regional studies of the Institute of Agricultural Economics particularly Arnt Leiramo, Lagdbruket i Vestvagéy (Oslo: Norges Landbruks¢konomiske Inst tutt, 19 ); Odd Maeland, Préyebxgga Leiranger (Oslo: N. L. I. 196%). and Eivind Elstrand and Svein Robbestad, L d e Ball e (Oslo: N. L. I., 1963); also Rudolf Antonsen, Jordbrugets plasg 1 Oiotregiogen (Narvik: By the author, 19 9 3 and the Very detailed and comprehensive agricultural census materials published in Oslo by the Norwegian Census Bureau. 35 September 5, 1969. Some of these are discussed in Lofotposteg (Svolvaer), 133 over kr. 7 million in emergency relief to farmers in the three northern counties.36 Continuing programs which decidedly favor the remote agricultural areas include transportation subsidies for milk, imported feed, and fertilizer. The basic premise is that no farm in Norwayshallsuffer due to distance and relative inaccessibility. These factors are of course par- ticularly severe north of the Arctic Circle. Of a variety of agricultural price support systems the milk subsidy carries a special meaning for Nordland. Under the milk subsidy the farmer-reallotted, on the basis of a prior production record, a quota for which he is paid the full support price by the cooperative dairy. Any milk he manufactures in excess of the quota is paid for at a rate commensurate with its use and real market value. The milk support system is in effect a kind of income maintenance which acts as a barrier against production increases while keeping the otherwise uneconomic farm in business. In 1968 the price reduction per kilogram milk sold in excess of the quota was thirty ere, which was about fifty per cent of the support price.37 The net consequence of the state agricultural support systems in Nordland has been to establish the county as a major surplus producer of dairy goods. Milk production 36Aftenposten (Oslo), October U, 1968. 37Norden, Nord-Norges Landbrukstidskrift, Lxxx11 (April 20, 1968), 267; and interviews with agricultural agents in Vestvagfiy, Evenes, Grane, Skjerstad, and Brdnnéy, Fall, 1969. 13% from l9h9 to 1968 increased over #00 per cent. Noteworthy gains were also made in hog and sheep raising.38 And yet the productivity of the average Nordland farm remains thirty per cent below the national average.39 One study which sampled seventy-five Nordland farms in 1966 found the average agri- cultural earning power to be kr. 3.79 Per hour. The compar- able hourly earning in the nation was kr. 5.3h.u0 The prin- cipal reason.for the low productivity is the still large percentage of small and part time farmers. Through its varied programs the government hopes to establish a regionally selfsufficient agriculture. In the process it has encouraged specialization in dairying and the continuing existence of the small farm operation. The effect upon human migration behavior has been to retard the outmigration tendency though the agricultural districts continue to provide more than their share of outmigrants. Transportation and Communication Improvements.—-In a continuing effort to improve telecommunications,recent central govern- ment decisions seem to have caused an increase in the outmigration process. The state subsidizes directly the Nordland air, bus, coastal shipping, and ferry lines. In 38Nordland Landbruksselskab Arsmelding, 1968 (Bode: Nordland fioktrykeri, As., 1 68), 85. 39Aftenposten (Oslo), April 5, 1968. ”OKarl S¢rgaard, "Nord-Norsk Naeringsliv i 1967~68." Ngrd-Norge, Naeringsliv cg pkonomEJ‘XXXVIII (1968), lbO. Figure 27.-~Near Stamsund, Vestvagey abandoned farms stand in mute testimony to the change in life style caused by road network extension into peripheral areas. Figure 28.--Vitting agricultural district, Vestvagéy. Most farms have been abandoned in the past five years in spite of recent electrification. Note stone fence, unimproved rough pasture, and the generally harsh nature of the surroundings. 136 L. 1966 this amounted to nearly kr. 30 million. 1 The govern- ment also supports the upkeep and expansion of the trans- portation system. Extraordinary provisions are made for the improvement of the road conditions within peripheral districts. Of the kr. 25 million so provided on a national basis in 1962 close to twenty-five per cent went to the development of the coastal highway in Helgeland.“2 EXpansion of the transportation and communication network into remote districts is in part motivated by the desire to insure the maintenance of the population base. There are indications that this objective is not met. In fact we may suggest that such improvements in thinly settled areas tend to hasten the urge to migrate out. The following examples support this conclusion. On the island of Vestvag¢y a small farming-fishing district was totally depopulated only a short time following the completion of a road to Stamsund town (see Figure 27). The district had previously benefitted from generous govern- ment agricultural price and farm building subsidies and the road should have insured a relative degree of agricultural permanence in the area. The improved agricultural supply and market situation introduced the district's inhabitants at the same time to employment opportunities not before perceived. Before long people were commuting to permanent k ulHakon Kyllingmark, "Nord-Norge cg kommunikasjonene," figrd-Norge, Magringsliv og ¢konomi (1967), 32. uzIbid., 3o. 137 Jobs in Stamsund. Agriculture and part time fishing rapidly declined in importance and all families opted in the end to settle near their jobs and the schools of their children. Figure 28 illustrates a similar situation in another remote district on the island of Vestvagdy. Road connection to Leknes, twenty kilometers distant, has existed for several decades but the provision of electricity it; fairly new to the district. Introducticn cfi’ the latter brought in tele- vision which resulted in a heightened awareness of the good life elsewhere and, it is suggested, an increase in the cut- migration tendency.l+3 Nine farms and one rural general store with postal service have ceased operation in recent years. This problem is not confined to the Lofoten islands. In Helgeland an embittered director of the district electrical power company complains about the rapidly decreasing earnings resulting from the depopulating of rural districts only recently provided with electricity.uu Evidence that stronger government safety measures in public transportation has the potential of disrupting local settlement stability has also come to light in Helgeland. Here the small community of S¢rnes (Hi the Vefsanord has maintained for some time its only communication link with life elsewhere over an ancient and rapidly deteriorating dock. State inspectors recently declared the dock area unsafe and off limits to fjord traffic ‘ u3Frcm an interview with Kare Olsson, agricultural agent in Vestvagdy kommune, September 15, 1960. an Helgeland Arbeiderblad (Mosjden), August 16, 1969. 138 until such time that improvements are made. The district's thirty people are herewith effectively isolated. Farms cannot be serviced by the milk boat, children cannot go to school or they must stay in a dormitory, and mail delivery and pick up is in jeopardy.“5 Temporary measures will be taken to improve the situation but further incentive for depopulation has been provided. The agricultural settlement of Haugnes on the island of And¢y (Andenes kommune) in Vesteralen shows on a larger scale the impact of transportation network expansion. Haugnes occupied a flat coastal stretch adjacent to the state highway. In 1953 it was separated from the highway by a new airfield which was to service military as well as commercial needs of the region. The resulting transportation problem no doubt helps explain the 1953 to 1969 decrease in population from 332 to 1115.“,6 The remaining families sued the state for damages and a settlement allowing them to turn the remaining property over to the state. Total abandonment is now following the state agreement to abide by a court directed settlement of kr. #.1 millionlu7 Administrative centralization efforts have reached the national telecommunication system with probable adverse results for the small central place of deingen. This place -—..__ #SHelgeland Arbeiderblad.(MosJ¢en). August 25, 1969. uéLofotposten (Svolvaer), September 13, 1969. n7Lofotp9§ten (Svolvaer). October 3, 1969. 139 was established in 1909 as the North Norway regional tele- communication administrative headquarters.“8 Gradually thee diffusion of settlement and economic development caused the creation of independent regional centers in Finnmark (1921) and in Troms (1954). L¢dingen's main economic function is to be transferred to the much larger. and for Nordland more centrally located, city of Bode. With a reduction of an estimated twenty per cent of the kommune tax base and a good deal more from the loss of supporting industry and services strong fears are expressed that deingen will not survive};9 The Effects of Decision Making in the Natignal Sphereg_A i Summary.--The central Norwegian government and its depart- ments display a mesh of divergent motives and policies in the peripheral region. Government removal grants, central- ization of administration and services, and improvements in the amenity structure have tended to hasten the outmigra- tion process. Only through the agricultural support programs is government intervention in the national sphere succeeding in retarding the outflow of people. Government decision making coupled with present day rapid changes in technology. socio-economic conditions, and man's perception of environment and opportunity have very much affected the life style and attitudes of the peripheral ——_._ uBHarstad Tidende. August 29, 1969. 49Lofotposten (Svolvaer), June 19, 1969 and July 23, 1969: Fremover (Narvik), July 16, 1969; and Harstad Tidende, September I. 1969. IMO inhabitant. Though some may wish for a return to the simpler life50 is is not possible to turn back the clock. Improved mobility and increasing technological prowesses have combined to sweep the peripheral region along though at a certain distance behind the more advanced areas: always it seems with some degree of reluctance. Change in the depressed area does not frequently occur from within. rather it is imposed from the outside and as such is not as readily accepted. Some communities unable to institute changes as rapidly as demanded loose industry. employment and people. Young pe0ple vote with their feet for what they perceive to be a more fullfilling life elsewhere. Improved local educational conditions expand their horizons and enable them to compete on a broader base for manufacturing and urban Jobs. Though the policies of the national government have in many instances a measurable impact upon conditions in the economically marginal area it is not always the impact intended. Here this has been shown to be particularly true for the policies motivated in part by the desire to stabilize the Periphery population base. 50See particularly the published materials of Ottar Brox as exemplified by ”Avvisning af storsamfunnet som ¢konomisk tilpasningsform. Tidsskrift foeramfunnsforskning, V (196a), 167-78; "Geografi eller Sciencefictlon," MinervaTs Kvartalskrift. III (1967). 314-18; and Hva SkJer 1 Mord— Norge? {0310: Fax Forlag, 1966). See also Aasmond Stokke "Hvorfor Oslo-Regionen's vekst b¢r dempes.” Plan og Arbeid, IV (1967) , 26-27. W m1 Decision Making: Toward Regional Economic Development Though the peripheral regions are clearly affected by the Spasmodic and highly sectoralized approaches toward national socio-economic improvement, it is an easier task to evaluate the impact upon migration of regional policies. These are strongly purposive programs designed to achieve a regional economic uplift. For Nordland in the past two decades this regional effort has been buttressed variously by, l. a national growth point policy; 2. the North Norway Development Fund (NNDF); 3. the District Development Fund (DDF); and 4. the more recent Industrial Estate Corporation (130).51 Regional development policy in Norway focusesv broadly upon the expansion of employment opportunity and the improvement of socio-economic conditions in marginal 52 areas. This regional policy concern dates back to the 1930's with the government's interest in developing water resources * 51Though no published research has tied together the impact of government decision making in pursuit of national objectives many authors have considered the purpose, character and impact of Norwegian regional policy prOgrams. See for example Odd J. Breivik, Om Distriktsutb . in en 0 Distriktenes Utb in sfond (Oslo: Distriktenes Utfiyggingsfons, I968}; ' enri Lun e, "Oversikt over virkemidler i distriktsut- byesingen,” Plan og Arbeid, IV (October, 1970), 12-16; and Lawrence M. Sommers and Ole Gade, "The Spatial Impact of Government Decisions on Postwar Economic Change in North Norway," Annals of the Association of American Geographers, LXI (September, 19717. 522-353 52 Breivik, Om Distriktsutbyggingen, 8. 1&2 and in eXpanding the electrical power grid to thinly populated areas. In the thirties came also the Fund for New Industries with the objective of aiding industries wishing to locate in areas having little industrial activity. World War II disrupted the emerging regional programs but extraordinary efforts at rebuilding a war devasted economy refocused‘ attention on regional development problems.~-The character of post-war regional policies and their economic impact'has recently been analyzed in some detail53 and will only be briefly dealt with here as it relates to migration. Growth Point Policy.--The idea of a growth point emphasizes the importance of establishing regional centers as foci of economic development regions.5u By establishing the state owned iron and steel complex at Mo-i-Rana the Norwegian government supported the need to equalize income between regions while recognizing the correlation existing between urbanization and economic growth. Growth pole development was also ecouraged by state supported private industrial 53Sommers and Gade, "Spatial Impact of Government Decisions." SuThe growth pole idea was first advanced by F. Perroux. "Note sur la notion de pole de croissance," Economic Appliquee, VIII (1955). 307-20. The resulting vast literature has been recently analyzed in D. E. Keeble, "Models of Economic Development,” in Models in Geography, ed. by R. J. Chorley and P. Haggett (London: Nethuen‘afid Company, 1967), 281-87. The effect of implementing the idea in Norway has been analyzed in detail by Paul Olav Berg, Rin virknin er av n Storindustri (Oslo: Distriktenes UtSyggingsTona, I95g): and Jensfiéhr. Hansen, ”Industrial Utvikling og Tettstedsvekst." Norsk Geografisk Tidsskrift, xx (1965-1966), 181-265. 1W3 investment in Glomfjord and Mosjden. As discussed in Chapters III and V all of these industrialitoms have succeeded in a short term vigorous population expansion by pulling in people from adjacent rural districts. Recent indications are that none of these urban places have a capacity for selfsustained growth. They merely act as sophisticated vocational training centers which import unskilled labor from the rural periphery and export well trained labor to employment centers in southern Norway.55 Therefore it can be suggestodzthat the gpvernment in its support of a growth point policy has succeeded in creating a number of towns which act as parasites within their respective regions rather than as centers of enduring regional economic growth.56 The kommuner which include Mo. Glomfjord, and Mosjden sustained a net migration loss of 520 in 1969 and an estimated net migration loss of 698 in 1970! North Norway Development Fund.--The NNDF was initiated in 1952 as the financing leg of the North Norway Plan. Its purpose was to furnish financial support of any economic activity which would bring lasting support to the region. The com- prehensive program included: 1. the granting of loans. 55Aftenposten (Oslo), January 31, 1969. 56A notion which supports the argument of Bert Hoselitz that some cities rob rather than pay their hinterland, in "Generative and Parasitic Cities.” Economic Development and Cultural Change, III (1955), 278-94. 1w guaranties, and the purchase of company stocks and bonds: 2. the development of a favorable tax support structure: 3. aid in expansion of the communication system; and 4. special support efforts for the primary activities. Regional development aid has continued with the absorption of the NNDF by the spatially more broadly conceived District Development Fund in 1961. From March 18, 1952 to December 31. 1966 the two funds supported 362 individual ventures in Nordland to the tune of kr. 219,593,000.57 Nordland County has received 26.1 per cent of the total eXpenditures and guaranties. In Chapter IV the spatial distribution of develop- ment funding is represented by the variable DEVELAID which is shown to be strongly tied to the urbanization dimension (see Tables 5 and 10). Unfortunately the nature of the data does not permit correlating it with the migration patterns of the 1950's. For the 1960's an interesting relationship exists between development aid and the two migration variables, MOBILE 3 (annual average net migration, l96h-l966), and MOBILE 4 (annual average net migration, 1967-1969). It is clear that the main effort of the NNDF and the DDF was directed toward those areas most likely to exhibit a potential for selfsustained growth, the more urbanized kommuner. Development aid has obviously influenced the 57StortingsmeldingL Number 151 1967-68: Om Virksom— hgden til Dietriktenes Utb ingsfbnd i l966 (OSlo: Kommunal of Arbeidsdepartementet, 1967), 36. lHS urbanization process though the data does not permit establishing more precisely the degree. We can, however, expect a positive relationship between DEVELAID and the migration variables. For MOBILE 3 the correlation coef- ficient r is .h2 with an F value significance of .002. For MOBILE h the correlation coefficient is .50 with an F value significance of .001. Though the relationship is not particularly strong it is statistically significant and it increases in strength from the early to the later period. Thus the kommgge receiving the greater amount of aid is increasingly attractive to outmigrants from the more rural districts. In a report to the Storting (Norwegian Senate) the DDF Directorate noted that the present rate of modernization in primary activities together with the increasing role of secondary and tertiary occupations, and the resulting move- ment of people to urban places is persistent and perVasive. So much so that the DDF does not have the resources available to counteract the more negative aspects of this evolution.58 The Storting responded in l963-l96h with expanding the role of the DDF to include the offering of removal support to industries which located in congested areas like Oslo might be encouraged to move to a peripheral region.S Little industry has thus far taken advantage of this amenity. 58 59 Breivik, Om Distriktsutbygging, 12. Ibid., l3—Ih. 1H6 The Industrial Estate Corporation.--At the behest of the DDF and the Department of Local Government and Labor the Stortins approved on January 11, 1968 the establishment of the Industrial Estate Corporation.60 The role of this organization is patterned after the British industrial estate system. To attract industry into depressed areas the government will develop the necessary industrial supports (transportation accesa,electrical power, water and sewage, building, etc.). for a given site and then lease parts of the developed site to prospective firms under favorable financial conditions. One of five areas thus far selected for development is situated in a rural district thirty kilometers south of Harstad in Troms County yet only five kilometers north of the Nordland boundary. With the anticipated creation here of an industrial employment base of at least 500 the estate will have an enormous influence upon regional migration patterns. The outmigration tendency in adjacent rural kommuner can be expected to increase markedly and it will be more difficult for places like Harstad, Narvik. and Mo-i-Rana to obtain additions to their labor force. Whether or not this particular venture will establish the longed for center of selfsustained economic growth remains to be seen. If it follows the pattern set by Glomfjord, Mosjéen, and No-i-Rana 601mm, uj-uu. 61See for example, "Industrial Estates in Great Britain," in Regional Policy in EFTA; Industrial Estates (Geneva: European Free Trade Association,l9755, 27-76; and ”Industrial Estates in Norway," Ibid., 71-80. 1:047 it is more likely to hasten the outflow of skilled labor from North Norway. In sum the Norwegian regional policy concern as it relates to Nordland County has been shown to affect human mobility as follows: 1. development funding is aiding the urbanization process 2. the migration of low skilled labor from the more remote and rural districts is intensi- fying: and 3. while vocational skills of the local labor force is upgraded that labor force is leaving the county at an increasing rate. Decision Making: The Private Initiative In an environment of relatively great economic uncertainty, as that offered by North Norway, private invest- ment decisions are guided more by government inducement than is true elsewhere. Few opportunities exist without government intercession. With or without state support opportunities are severely restricted to either primary extraction such as fishing and mining, or the secondary and tertiary support thereof. As a result of this lack of diversity in investment possibilities excellent human resources either gotx>waste or migrate out if they are not absorbed into the rather limited local labor market. Southern companies have come to appreciate the existence of a substantial, well educated and trained labor Pool in Nordland and have racted by sending in recruiting teams, Electricians in the communication center of L¢dingen 11+8 have recently seen their number reduced through the hard sell efforts of a recruiting team representing a South Norway company. Though vigorous protests are raised against such raiding of skilled labor already permanently employed it is obviously difficult to close the door on the diffusion of the knowledge that equal or better opportunities exist else- where. The region loses out on even that portion of the labor force which with a great deal of local expense has acquired a high degree of specialized skill. Seemingly few alternatives exist with which to combat the raiding of skilled labor. Perhaps a more emphatic attempt at improving the image of local conditions is needed. The peripheral region does offer a complex of amenities not available in the traffic congested, polution choked, and hectic urban environments of the South. CHAPTER VII THE SPATIAL IMPACT OF MIGRATION Factors and processes which influence and direct the changing patterns of migration have been identified and analyzed in previous chapters. In this chapter an attempt will be made to assess the spatial impact of migration. The increasing concern with spatial processes and patterns in the discipline of geography have led several authors to contemplate the relationship of the movement of people to the evolution of spatial patterns.1 How does the migration process contribute to the reordering of the cultural land- scape and to the changing spatial character of demography, socio-economic activity and structure, political organization, and man's environmental perception? A complex of hypotheses designed to establish the more precise nature of these relationships are derived from the outmigration spatial impact model introduced in Chapter II. These hypotheses will be statistically tested through regres- sion analysis. The results in general will indicate that due to the highly selective nature of the migration process —___ 1See for example, Harvey, ”The Problem of Theory Construction in Geography;" Morrill, Niggation and the Spread and Growth of Urban Settlements: and Simmons, ”Changing Residence in the City." 1&9 “in? , I; 150 its impact upon the peripheral region is apt to be negative in terms of socio-economic development. In fact the more isolated and primary activity oriented the region is the more negative the impact. Migratiog and Demographic Change Demographic variables tend to be strongly inter- related. Migration may thus be expected to correlate with other demographic characteristics like population change, age composition, sex ration, natural growth rate, and population concentration. The nature of the interrelationships for the depressed region with a high degree of outmigration is described in Chapter II under the heading, the spatial impact of migration. Conclusions in Chapter II are derived from an analysis of the relevant migration literature and serve as the nuclei of hypotheses designed to uncover expected conditions in Nordland County. e of S L ar Corre at 0 .--With demographic charac- teristics, except migration, as independent variables XI through X12, the following listing defines the dependent migration variables: _ Yl-pro mille annual average net migration, 1951-1957 Y2-pro mille annual average net migration, 1957-1961 Y3-pro mille annual average net migration, 196H-1966 YM-pro mille annual average net migration, 1967-1969 151 Simple correlation-regression analysis is used to determine the strength and direction of variable relations. A summary of correlated variables, applicable hypotheses, and research findings is shown in Table 14. It is hypothesized that Nordland migration streams are chiefly composed of young people thus leaving behind an increasingly older population in the area of outmigration. An inverse relation exists between migration during the 1950's and per cent population sixty years of age and over in 1960 (X3). The coefficients of correlation, r = -.5990 for Y1 and r = -.72h2 for Y2, substantiate the hypothesis. The independent variable, per cent population sixty years and older in 1967 (X9) has an r = -.70hh with Y3. Similarly the correlation coefficient is relatively high (.6715) between age group 20-29 as a percentage of age group sixty and over in 1966 (X10) and Y3. It can be said that age selectivity in the migration process contributes to a youthful age composition in the area of immigration and leaves the area of outmigration with a relatively high percentage of older people. It is also hypothesized that women predominate in the migration stream leaving behind an excess of males in the marginal (outmigration) area. Y1 and Y2 are correlated with per cent unmarried adult women of the adult female population (X5). The respective coefficients of correlation of .4782 and .U795 substantiates the hypothesis for the 1950's. For the following decade a hypothesized negative relationship DEMOGRAPHIC 152 TABLE 19 STRUCTURE: VARIABLES, HYPOTHESES, AND RESEARCH FINDINGS Dependent Independent Hypothesized r Significance Variables Variables Relation Level Y1 X1 TOTPOP6O Positive .#632 .99 Y2 X1 TOTPOT6O Positive .5332 .99 Y1 X2 POP506O Positive .76lh .99 Y2 X2 POP506O Positive .8991 .99 Y1 X3 OLDPOP6O Negative -.5990 .99 Y2 X3 OLDPOP6O Negative v.72h2 .99 Y2 x4 GROWRATE Positive .6781 .99 Y1 X5 SPINSTER Positive .9782 .99 Y2 X5 SPINSTER Positive .4794 .99 Y3 X6 TOTPOT65 Positive .6477 .99 Yh X7 TOTPOP69 Positive .526h .99 Y3 X8 POCH6570 Positive .8090 .99 Y“ X8 POCH657O Positive .8U51 .99 Y3 X9 OLDPOP67 Negative -.709# .99 Y3 X10 YOUTHNES Positive .6715 .99 Y3 X11 MFRATIO Negative -.u272 .99 Y# X11 MFRATIO Negative -.9451 .99 Y3 X12 GROWRATE Positive .656A .99 Y1 Y2 MOBILE 2 Positive .6915 .99 13 YQ‘NDBILE a Positive .5533 .99 Source: Compiled by author. 1 These are defined in Appendix B. 133 between the migration variables, Y3 and Y4, and the sex ratio in 1966 (X11) is supported with r values of -.4272 and -.4451, respectively. Though the correlation is weaker than anti- cipated, it is statistically significant above the chosen confidence level of .99. Sex selectivity in Nordland migra- tion streams results in outmigration areas where the excess of males increases with an increasing scale of net population outflow. Migrant selectivity is expected to have an impact upon the natural growth rate. A positive correlation is thus hypothesized between migration and the annual average rate of natural increase 1960-1962 (X4), and 1966-1968 (X12), respectively. For Y2 and X5 the r = .6781 while the cor- relation coefficient for Y3 and X12 is .6564. This means % that the natural rate of growth decreases with an increasing a rate of net outmigration, a fact which may have serious con- sequences for the marginal region. The latter will after a prolonged and/or intensive net outmigration fail to replenish its population base by natural means and will face depopul- ation even if outmigration ceases. In Nordland there were only two kommuner in 1964 with an excess of deaths over births: by 1967 there were three. In 1969 six kommuner were in this situation and in 1970 there were eight (Vega, Harpy, Leir- fjord, Gildeskal, Beiarn, Hamaroy, Evenes, and East). It is hypothesized that the migration process will direct the human flow from thinly populated areas to areas of greater and denser population. This has in some degree 151+ already been shown in Chapter VI. Urbanization exerts a powerful attractive pull in migrants from the more rural areas and these migrants contribute significantly to relative pOpulation incease and size. Thus migration has a high Correlation with population change (X2 and X8) and with population size (X1, X8, and X9) (see Table 14). Finally it is hypothesized that migration streams once initiated will persist in direction and strength. For the 1950's a statistically significant degree of correlation, r = .6915, does exist between the two migration variable. During the 1960's migration streams did intensify but they also shifted slightly in direction accounting for a lower correlation coefficient, r = 5543, between the two migration variables (Y3 and Y4).. This shift in direction was uncovered and discussed more thoroughly 1x1 Chapter V. The hypothesis is substantiated though the intercorrelation between net migration variables is seen to weaken over time.u Population Pyramid Analysi§.--To further support the guiding research hypothesis that migration relates to and affects other components of demographic structure a series of pOpul- ation pyramids of kommuner with differing migration character~ istics are analyzed (see Figure 29 and Table l5).2 Population 2The strong relationship existing between migration and other demographic variables was demonstrated by the factor analysis of Chapter IV. Demographic dimensions, tying together a number of population characteristics, emerged as Factor I in Phase I (see Table 4) and as Factor V in Phase II (See Table 5). ¥ 155 FIGURE 29= Population Pyramids for Selected Nordland Kommuner AGE *“‘ 70 so so 40 so 20 male female I0 male female l 0 RA NA ANKENES I: 70 so 40 so 20 L; IO 0 L soon NARVIK 70 l a: so so 40 so 20 l0 0 L VESTVAGJUY STEIGEN :1 70 so fir so 40 :2 3° 3 a 20 1 t1 '° 11 r4 o ‘ 65432|Ol2345%of 54321012345677”: Haney pooulation VEVELSTAD population ,,,,, 156 TABLE 15 SELECTED KOMMUNEE DEMOGRAPHIC STRUCTURE: __.* Kommune Y3 Y4 X9 X10 X11 X12 Popgéggion Rana +20.7 - 7.5 9.0 178.9 1.16 18.4 25,847 Ankenes + 5.8 - 2.2 13.2 100.9 1.10 13.2 6,622. Bod¢ + 0.4 + 0.1 11.4 154.3 .99 16.2 27.575 Narvik - 9.7 -12.1 16.3 82.0 1.03 10.3 13,427 Vestvagéy -19.1 «16.2 17.6 71.0 1.20 8.9 11,757 Steigen -l4.9 ~20.6 23.1 48.5 1.38 -l.9 4,266 Hersy -23.0 -17.8 20.8 61.5 1.80 5.5 2,675 Vevelstad -28.3 -16.8 22.1 50.9 1.70 2.5 809 Source: Compiled by author ' migration, 1964-1966 Key: Y3 = Pro mille annual average net Y4 a Pro mille annual average net migration, 1967-1969 X9 = Percentage population sixty years and older, 1967 X10 = Age group 20-29 as a percentage of age group 60 plus, 1966 Xll = Male-female ratio for age group 25-29, 1966 X12 = Pro mille annual average rate of natural increase, 1966-1968 157 pyramids show the percentage distribution of age and sex groups for a given population. The male percentage is plotted on the left and the female on the right. A population whose pyramid has a broad base and a progressive narrowing toward the tOp may be identified as being highly reproductive.3 In Nordland this is best exemplified by Rana kommune which for two decades prior to the compilation of the pyramid data benefited from a steady net inmigration of people. Rana is at the same time the most industrialized kommune in the county and therefore does not show the anticipated surplus of women in the young adult age group. The district does have a decidedly youthful population and a very high rate of natural increase. Ankenes is the only kommune that can be classified suburban following the administrative changes of the early 1960's. Since Ankenes is the recipient of the urban overflow from Narvik the two kommuner are interesting to compare and contrast. Ankenes with its higher natural growth rate shows the effects of the inmigration of predominantly young families from Narvik. Stil the contrast between city and suburb is not as strong as anticipated. Narvik has unexpectedly less excess males for the 15-29 age groupl+ and its percentage 3Donald J. Bogue, Princi les of Demography (New York: John Wiley and Sons, Inc., 1959), 130. “Though Narvik has earlier been identified as a way station on the road to Oslo particularly for young women. See Hallstein Myklebost, Ofoten Re ion: Befolkning o Naerin s- liv (Haslum,Norways Andersson og Skjanes A78, I957). 29. 158 of older people is not so much greater than is true for Ankenes. But the weight of the old population is significantly greater for Narvik than for either Rana or Bode. As noted in Chapter III Narvik's pOpulation growth has been stagnating or decreasing for the past decade. Therefore the city finds itself in what appears to be a transitional stage between a young and an old dominated population. One might expect Ankenes to follow this evolution within the next decade since the suburban kommune four years ago changed from a situation of net in- migration to one of net outmigration, and since Narvik's rate of net outmigration appears on the rise. Bod¢, Nordland's chief administrative center, has experienced over many decades a low but persistent rate of inmigration. This is reflected in its young-mature population profile. Bod¢ isalsclthe only district with a surplus of young women, and the only one with a continuing net inflow of people. The strong relationship existing between outmigration and an old-age dominated population pyramid is apparent from a glance at those of Vestvagdy. Steigen, Herdy. and VeVelstad.q The basic relationships are that the greater the degree of net outmigration the older the average population and the lower the rate of natural growth. The end result is a top heavy Pyramid as is particularly true in the case of Vevelstad, a small rural and largely agricultural kommune, which has had a negative rate of natural increase for a number of Years. This district also identifies the tendency for young 159 women to precede men in the process of outmigration. Vevel- stad has over twice the number of males than females in the 20-24 age group though the male-female ratio for the 15-29 group is somewhat less at 1.70. Herdy also exemplifies the marginal district with a tradition of outmigration. Here the male-female ratio of 1.80 for the young adult age group is the highest in the county. For both Herdy and Vevelstad the decrease in net outmigration in the late sixties is partially explained by the decreasing proportion of their populations in the high mobility age groups. In the technologically advanced world urban populations in general tend to have an older age composition than do rural populations.6 Just the opposite is true in the depressed region as exemplified by Nordland County. Here it can be said that the more rural the kommune the older the age com- position. In summary it has been found that the migration process as it affects Nordland causes stagnation in population growth and a deficit of young women. In an increasing number of cases there exists an active depopulation and a negative rate of natural growth. Migration and Economic Structure Recent structural changes taking place in the Norwegian SFor further analysis on the relation in general existing between population pyramids and migration potential see Jens Chr. Hansen, ”Flyttinger i Norge, 1967.” Norsk Geografisk Tidsskrift, xxv (1960), 91-103. 6Bogue, Principles of Demography, 16H. 160 economic system are associated with the evolution of a modern service society and relates directly to patterns of migration. Primary activities have in terms of their manpower demands declined in importance in comparison with other employment groups. The redistribution of employment is taking place at the expense of the primary activity labor pool and there- fore also at the expense of the more thinly populated and rural areas.. New job opportunities are as a rule found in the more densely populated areas with these gaining gradually a disproportionate share of the total population. A key to understanding the direction and rapidity of change in economic structure is provided through an analysis of the correlations existing between migration and economic con- ditions and change. The complex of hypotheses tested in this section are rooted in the central belief that as persistent outmigration causes population growth stagnation or depopulation in the areas afflicted, so will it cause a worsening of economic conditions. This thought is well supported by the literature cited in Chapter II and in part supported by recent Norwegian research. 7Mock, for example, speaks of the spiral of outmigration and worsening economic conditions probably existing in Helge- land, see Mock, ”Flyttings- og Befolkningsutvikling,“ 309; While Akselsen considers the negative effects upon the tax and service base of outmigration in Egil Akselsen, "Studie- selskapets virksomhet i l. halvar 196n," Word Norgex Naerings- liv cg gkonomi, XXXI (October, 1964), 40-Hn. Otter Brox maintains 0 he contrary that migration streams include upper as well as lower elements of the social strata, leaving behind a viable population of farmers and fishermen in the rural districts, see his, Hva Skier i Nord-Merge. Brox's con- clusions are in general not well’supported by the finding of this study. 161 Tests of Simple Correlation.--In this analysis of migration and economic factors the dependent variables are again the four migration streams listed as Y1 and Ya in the previous section of this chapter. The independent variables, hypothe- sized relations, and research findings are found in Table 16. Understanding the recent changes in economic activities is basic to understanding the impact of migration upon economic structure. These shifts in economic activity, however, are in part conditioned by the migration process. Thus it is hypothesized that people move from areas where primary activities, like agriculture, forestry and fishing, predominate to areas of manufacturing and tertiary service concentrations. The expected negative relationship of migration (Y1 and Y2) to agriculture and fishing employment (X1 and X2) is only poorly substantiated for the 1950's. Only the 1951-1957 migration stream (Y2) and percentage employment in agriculture and forestry in 1960 (X1) has a negative correlation coefficient, r = -.4371, exceeding the chosen confidence level. On the other hand the expectation that migration is in the direction of employment concentrations in manufacturing (X3 and X12) and service industries (X4) is well supported by the findings, at least into the mid- 1960‘8. The 196b-l966 migration stream (Y3) correlates well with the index of manufacturing employment, industrial labor input in 1967, r = .6806, but the 1967-1969 migration stream (Yh) does not, r = .3523. This explains in part why the Nordland migration streams have experienced a recent shift 162 TABLE 16 ECONOMIC STRUCTURE: VARIABLES, HYPOTHESES, AND RESEARCH FINDINGS ‘— v_-__fi T FZ‘fi 1'. Dependent Independent Hypothesized r Significance Variables Variables Relation Level Y1 X1 AGFOéO Negative -.2913 .98 Y2 X1 AGFO6O Negative -.“371 .99 Y1 X2 FISH60 Negative -.29“l .98 Y2 x2 FISH60 Negative -.2922 .98 Y1 X3 MANF60 Positive .“729 .99 Y2 x3 MANF60 Positive .6022 .99 Y1 X“ RETAIL60 Positive .“571 .99 Y2 x“ RETAIL6O Positive .5888 .99 Yl X5 RETIRE60 Negative -.“73“ .99 Y2 x5 RETIRE6O Negative -.5856 .99 Y1 x6 AGFO506O Positive .2 28 .96 Y2 x1 AGF0506O Positive .2 32 .95 Y1 X7 MANF5060 Positive .2865 .98 Y2 X7 MANF5060 Positive .1829 ).95 Y1 X8 FISH506O Positive .3070 .99 Y2 X8 FISH506O Positive .“079 .99 Y1 X9 INCPCS? Positive .5183 .99 Y2 X9 INCPCS? Positive .6170 .99 Y1 XlO INC“757 Positive .0“02 ).95 Y3 Xll PERCFISH Positive .186“ ).95 Y“ x11 PERCFISH Positive .3063 .95 Y3 x12 LABIN67 Positive .6806 .99 Y“ x12 LABIN67 Positive .3523 .98 Y3 x12 PERINCP Positive .5999 .99 Y“ x12 PERINCP Positive .5698 .99 Y3 X13 HOUSEPUR Positive .55“2 .99 Y“ X13 HOUSEPUR Positive .5075 .99 Y3 X1“ PERSATAX Positive .5255 .99 Y“ X15 PERSATAX Positive .51““ .99 Source: Compiled by author 1 These are defined in detail in Appendix B. 163’ in direction. Industrial centers have reached the optimum limit in manufacturing employment and no longer provide the force of attraction of the earlier periods. The associated hypotheses linking migration to tem- poral change in employment categories similarly fail to be substantiated. Here it is anticipated that migration will encourage an increase in all employment classifications in places of destination (net inmigration) and a decrease in place of origin. The feeling is that expanding manufacturing and service centers will influence some measure of expansion in primary activities in close proximity. Some of the farmers who leave the periphery will be encouraged to remain in their profession because of improved market conditions, if land is available. Though these relationships are shown to be positive only one is statistically significant. Migration influenced an increasing concentration of employ- ment in fishing (X8) during the 1950‘s. Due to the lack of comparable data for the 1960's it is difficult to draw com- parisons. However, the substitute variable of per capita fish catch in 1966 (X10) does relate increasingly positive to migration (Y3 and Y“) though not significantly so in either case. A negative relation between migration (Y1 and Y2) and percentage of the population deriving its income from retirement and social security benefits (X5) is hypothesized and statistically substantiated. This is simply an affirma- tion of migrant selectivity which leaves the older population l6“ behind. An improved visual impression and understanding of the changing relationship between migration and the concen- tration of economic activity may be gained through an analysis of Figure 30 and Table 17. Each kommune is located on the pie chart by its percentile importance of primary, secondary, and tertiary occupations (see Figure 30, Chart IV). varia- tions in location symbols indicate in general how the indi- vidual kommune is affected by migration. Figure 26, Chart I is based upon the 1960 occupation statistics and the 1957- 1961 migration stream and identifies l. the striking impor- tance of agriculture, fishing, and forestry (primary activities) in Nordland, and 2. the tendency for secondary, tertiary, and diversified districts to either have a net gain or a very slight loss due to migration. Primary activi- ty districts which reveal a lesser degree of net outmigration are all within the Lofoten and Vesteralen region where fishing predominates. With administrative changes in the early 1960's the clustering of kommuner in the A and B-1 primary activity groups is partially broken up, but there is little change in the relative importance of the different occupations (see Table 17). The migration-economic emphasis relation- ship continues for Chart'II which is based upon 1965 occupation statistics and the l96“-l966 migration* stream. Some degree of change appears in Chart III which relates 1965 occupations to the 1967-1969 migration stream. The increasing degree 165 FIGURE 30. MIGRATION AND ECONOMIC EMPHASIS WET MIGRATION RATE (Fer 10007 Positive 0 to “909 ”10 to ~1uo9 “15 to -1909 -20 and over OP}. 4- \oo'fir / \ 3/ I. 1957-1961 Migration Rate 0% Manufacturing IOT‘Vo TV: Key 166 TABLE 17 ECONOMIC ACTIVITY BY KOMMUNE, 1960-1965 W Activity Categories1 Kommune 1960 1965 A Primary: 450% primary 23 (33%) 15 (3am) B-II 30-50% primary 2” (35%) 11 (25%) 3-11 20-30% primary 9 (13%) ‘ 8 (18%) C Tertiaryz<60% service h ( 5%) 3 ( 7%) D Diversified:'>20% primary 9 (13%) 6 (ins) '>60% service >60% manufacturing E Secondary (60% manufacturing 1 j 1%) l ( 2%) Total 69 (100%) 4h (100%) Source: Compiled by author lClassification scheme after G. Enequist and L. Back, ”Central Places in Sparsely Populated Areas; Three Examples From Northernmost Sweden,” Geografiska Annaler, Series B, XIVIII (1966), 36-50. *— of net outmigration from the island fishing districts iden- tifies more convincingly the primary emphasis Eggmungr as those hardest hit by net outmigration. In sum, the migration process in Nordland discri- minates between economic activity groups pulling people from areas dominated by agriculture and fishing and depo— siting them in centers of manufacturing and service employment. At the same time the migration process results in spatia- temporal changes in employment structure. The areas of net IIIIIIIII'll-IIIIIIIIl----——— 167 inmigration gain in all employment categories though most importantly in manufacturing and the services. Areas of net outmigration are left with a surplus of retirees and a de- crease in primary activities employment. What then is the effect of migration on relative economic prosperity? Economists have posed this question and derived an economic equalization theory with which to explain it.8 The basic tenet of this theory is contained in the following quote, "migration is the main mechanism of ad- Justment to the redistribution of economic opportunities caused by natural resource development and technological change which impinge unequally upon industries and areas."9 Migration is therefore seen as a means for attaining a state of spatial equilibrium in income and employment by pulling out of the depressed region that part of the labor force which is unemployed or underemployed. This will have the effect of raising the full employment level in peripheral areas and solve the problem of labor hunger in regions of industrial and urban expansion. But the Nordland migration process has been found to be highly selective by removing the educated young people and leaving behind a more tradition bound older population. Will this tend to bridge the gap in presperity existing 8 See Chapter II for references. 90. D. Duncan, "Population Redistribution and Economic Growth; A Review," Economic Development and Culture Change, VII (October, 1958). 90- 168 between urban and rural communities? It is hypothesized that migrant selectivity results in a widening of the gap between the prosperous and the less prosperous kommune in Nordland County. In all cases the hypothesized relation between migration streams (Y1, 12, and Y4) and per capita income (X9 and X12) are substantiated well above the chosen con- fidence level. That is, mobility is strongly related to spatial differences in per capita income, though the data does not allow a conclusion as to whether population movement begets or results from these differences. For the 1950's the early migration stream (1951a1957) is less strongly related to per capita income, 1957 (r = .5183), than the latter is to the 1957-1961 migration stream (r = .6170). This might lead to the conclusion that income variations push or pull people more than they are caused by the flow of people. However, the situation appears reversed for the 1960's where migration is related to per capita income, 1965 (see Table 16). Unexpectedly, the relatively strong migration-income relationship cannot be shown to result in a widening of the income gap between Nordland kommuner. No significant correlation exists between Y1 and X10, per cent change in Per capita income, 1947-1957 (r = .0002). On the basis of existing data and the low correlation coefficient this hypo- thesis must be rejected. 0n the other hand there is no evidence that migration —_ 169 aids in equalizing income. From 1957 to 1965 the per capita income gap widened from kr. 3,460 to kr. b.29l with the leading kammune (Narvik) increasing from kr. ”.833 to kr. 7,U99 and the last from kr. 1,373 (Borge) to kr. 3,208 (Raddy). The relative percentageincreases, 23b per cent for the low position and 155 per cent for the high, is therefore somewhat deceptive. It might also be an easier task to prove the existence of migration-income widening correlation if not for the in- crease in state support of the more marginal districts through tax rebates, welfare payments, and social security. Much of the deleterious impact of outmigration has been softened by state intervention. Migration and Social Organization There is little quantitative material available to aid in documenting the impact of migration upon social organization and social change. Sufficient evidence has already been introduced to support the notion that the traditional family organization is broken up in those areas afflicted by persistent outmigration. The young depart the peripheral areas in great numbers leaving behind parents who are often tied to a tradition—rich past and an unpromising future. In any case the marginal region suffocates with the burden of an old population, traditional approaches to economic pursuits, and a lack of recent infusion of inno- vative, energetic, and openminded young blood. When opportunity does seem to beckon in agriculture and fishing often the the waiting period is too long. Who wants to wait till 170 one's father elects to retire from the farm or the boat to become an independent farmer or fisherman? Very few young men are willing and their decision not to wait is made easier by the clear unwillingness of young women to settle down for 4 a life of relative hardship on the farm. Outmigration from the marginal area is, as suggested in Chapter II, becoming a social tradition. 0f the liter- ally hundreds of teenagers the author came into contact with during field work10 there were few who did not indicate a desire to move out of the home district when graduated from school. The outbound mobility of school leavers is more . MW...— —-.— than Just accepted within the community, it is expected. School officials, elected community leaders, and many parents speak forebodingly about the community's failure in retaining its educated young people. Many of the youngsters remain in the district only until they can graduate from school. their father already having employment outside the community. In several classes in the town of Br¢nn¢ysund close to fifteen per cent of the students found themselves in this situation. Even in case their parents decide to stay the likelihood that the children will leave is increased due to 10Contacts were made while collecting consumer behavior and other spatial interaction data in the kommuner of Skjerstad, Vestvaa¢y, Evenes, Grane, and Brdnnéy. Inform— ation was gathered on 1328 households throuqh the county school system. The collection method was suggested by Hallstein Myklebost, Chairman of the Institute of Geography, Oslo University, and officially supported by Nordland County School Superintendent Olav Hyaas as well as all kommune level school officials and teachers. 171- A their heightened awareness of job opportunities elsewhere. The process is cumulative. In Grane kommune one school official expected not evencnuastudent from the graduating class (1970) of the new nine year school to remain in the local area more than a month or two following graduation. Outmigration generates its own raison d'etre.11 In B¢ kommune one small school district is approaching total depOpulation. Over one hundred people left the district for a manufacturing town in Southern Norway from 1961 to 1968.12 The wholesale outmigration was apparently initiated 'with the marriage of a prolific letter writer, a seaman from B¢, to a woman in the manufacturing town. Friends and relatives gradually were convinced of the positive job out- look and followed the seaman south. The nucleus of Ed residents in the manufacturing town has done much to alleviate one of the greater barriers to migration, the uncertainty of being able to adjust to the new environment. The kind of change in social outlook initiated by the movement into an area of a group of people carrying with them an alien value system can be illustrated by a case study of agricultural change conducted in Br¢nn¢y kommune. During the field work period the author gradually became aware of some of the major social barriers to change existing in the more marginal districts. One lead was the 11Also a conclusion of Lowenthal and Comitas in "Emigration and Depopulation.” 199' 12Harstad Tidende, July 16, 1969. 172 persisting uniformity of the upper limit of dairy herds, even on farms which could obviously support a much greater number. On the island of Vestvagdy there were in 1968 only ten per cent of the milk producing farms with more than four dairy cattle (see Figure 7).13 Vestvagdy is somewhat unique in that many of its farms have subsidiary income from other farm animals like sheep, goats, and mink, and from seasonal fishing. Agricultural agents, however, suggested that an adequate profit could be insured if each farm increased its dairy herd to ten. In Evenes kommune, between Harstad and Narvik, dairying is much closer to being the only source of farm income. Of forty farms sampled only two had more than eight dairy cows (see Figure 315 while the local agent believes that twelve cattle is the minimum for adequate income maintenance. To account for the difference the agent identified the reluctance of the average farmer to break with social tradition by acquiring more cattle than the norm for his peer group. The threshold for encouraging social ostra- cism thus appears to be about eight dairy cows in Evenes. In the agricultural kommune par exellence of Brenncy such a threshold is not as readily apparent. When inquiries were made concerning social barriers to agricultural eXpansion the county agents identified the past existence of a socially acceptable optimal limit in the size of the dairy herds, —.._._ 13From a ten per cent sample of Vestvagcy's 781 milk producing farms. 173: FIGURE 31 FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTIONS OF DAIRY CATTLE ON FARMS IN EVENES AND BR¢NN¢Y Farms Farms 20 } 20 I 18‘ 18' 12“ r 1 ' 1 ’ 12' F7 izj t Iotf f 10 8f , 8" 6* E 6. a. 3 h: , 2“ f] 2 ‘ i 0” o" . ’ .. 17‘“;ng w'u‘ IHEJQS‘EJIUN' 7 o co 0 (VJ-3911730 Hr-IHHHN HHHHHNNNNNM 1 Cattle 2 Cattle EVENES BH¢NN¢Y Source: Compiled by author 1From a thirty-eight per cent cample of the 110 Evenes farms in 1969. 2From a 17.5 per cent sample of the 352 full-time farms in Brenney in 1969. in this ease up to twelve producing milk cows. But attitudes were in the process of change. The breakthrough came with the recent movement into full-time agriculture of a number of fishermen who had abandoned their occupation and remote island location. Relying apparently without reservation on advice from local agronomers they began to build dairy herds to an average size of thirty cows. In addition they build, with generous aid from the government, the necessary barns and purchased. often in cooperation, the necessary machinery and equipment. They are quite successful and are 171+ looked upon with some envy by the older local farmers who are now forced to consider more closely the socially imposed restrictions if they wish to keep up. While inmigration may aid economic expansion by causing a crumbling of the existing local social barriers to progress there is no doubt that outmigration acts in an opposite way. Selectivity in the migration stream insures a relative increase of those who would stand in strong support of the status quo. And the situation is further perpetuated through the apparent acceptance of local values by government employees hired to aid the farmers. On Vestvagdy, which has seena decrease in dairy farms from 1263 (1963) to 781 (1968), agricultural agents believe ten milk producing cows will mean an 'economic' operation. In Evenes twelve to thirteen cows are deemed necessary; while in Brdnnfiy, where incidentally the physical environment is less marginal for agriculture, county agronom'ers favor a dairy herd of thirty cows. Clearly the perception of what is desired and what is possible within given environments is conditioned by social organization, tradition, and value systems, which in turn are affected by the intensity and direction of migration streams. As Barth's model of social organization postulates, social change is not apt to occur and economic expansion be 17s 1 initiated without conditions favorable for entrepreneurship. These are the conditions in which the marginal Nordland kommuner are notably lacking as evidenced by the continuing outflow of the people most likely to provide entrepreneurial leadership. Migration and PoliticalfiStructure A brief discussion of some notions central to under- standing political structure and party politics in Norway are necessary before investigating the impact of migration. Bokkan and valen have identified a number of cleavages and alignments which through time have contributed to the emergence of five dimensions of conflict in the Norwegian political system.15 Four of these dimensions are of special interest to this study. They are: 1. Territorial opposition between the capital city and the provinces which at times extends to incorporate all center-periphery contrasts. 2. Socio-cultural conflict between the urban aca- demically educated officials and the increasingly status lMSee Fredrik Barth, ed., The Role of the Entrepreneur in Social Change in Northern Norway (Oslo: Norwegian Univer- sities Press, 19637; afia Barth, Medels of Social Organization. lSstein Rokkan and Henry Valen, "Regional Contrasts in Norwegian Politics," in Mass Politics, ed. by Erik Allardt and Stein Rokkan (New York: The Free Press, 1970), 192-93: see also Ulf Torgersen, "The Trend Toward Political Con- sensus," Acta Sociologica, VI (1962), 159—72: and Stein Rokkan, "Geography, Religion, and Social Class: Cross- cutting Cleavages in Norwegian Politics," in Party Systems and Voter Alignments, ed. by Seymour M. Lipset and Stein"fiokkan (New York: The Free Press, 1967), 367-4hh. 176 conscious rural peasants. 3. Religious opposition between liberal urban populations and the fundamentalist Lutherans of many rural districts. u. Economic conflict between the buyers and sellers of primary products. Northern Norway has traditionally stood out as peripheral and frequently radical in its political inter- action with the urban south. Nordland rural kommuner as a result cannot be expected to reflect as strongly the urban- rural dichotomy underlying the dimensions cited above. The three left leaning parties of Labor, Socialist Peoples, and Communist, though normally considered urban and labor oriented, have been able to mobilize significant electoral resources in rural districts of Nordland. The strength of Labor, for example, departs little from fifty per cent of the vote (1965) in urban as well as rural districts. It was a finding of Rokkan and Valen that in the more peripheral areas of the North economic growth playes a minor role in changing party allegiance.16 Even so it may be expected that a positive relation- ship exists between the leftist parties (X2, X3, and Xb) and migration (Y3 and Y4). The hypothesis is that the dyna- mic elements of the migration streams will enhance the position of the socially more conscious, if not radical, ___ ______. l6Rokkan and valen, 20h. 177 urban parties. Relating the migration variables described earlierixithis chapter to the array of political party support of the 1965 elections provides only weak support for the hypothesis (see Table 18). Migration is only slightly related to the Labor and Communist vote, albeit positively. A relationship in the same direction but statistically even weaker exists for the party to the farthest right, the Conservatives (X5), traditionally a party of the business element and white collar employees. Somewhat of a surprise is therefore the fairly strong correlation coefficient for the Socialist Peoples (X3), r = .5374. This is statistically significant at the chosen level of confidence. Urban places, to which people have been attracted, display a relatively strong support for the party of the radical left and anti-economic unionists. The relation- ship weakens to a relatively low r of .3790 for the 1967- 1969 migration stream. It is also hypothesized that areas affected by persistent outmigration will correlate with support for the more fundamentalist and rural parties of Center and Christian Peoples (X6). The hypothesis is fairly well substantiated for the early period (Y3), r = -.9692, but less well for the later period (Yu), r = v.3742. Further it is expected that the dominance of young women in the migration streams will relate to active female participation in the electoral process (X1). A positive but weak correlation coefficient exists, r = .1759. for Y3. Though the anticipated correlation 178‘ TABLE 18 POLITICAL STRUCTURE VARIABLES, HYPOTHESES, AND RESEARCH FINDINGS W Dependent Independent Hypothesized r Significance Variable Variable Relation Level Y3 x1 VOTPAF65 Positive .1759 .95 Y4 x1 VOTPAF65 Positive .2968 .95 Y3 X2 LABOR 65 Positive .1447 .95 Y4 x2 LABOR 65 Positive .1576 .95 Y3 X3 SOCIPEP Positive .5374 .99 Y4 X3 SOCIPEP Positive .3740 .98 Y3 xn COMMIE65 Positive .1956 .95 Y4 X4 COMMIE65 Positive .2069 .95 Y3 X5 CONSER65 Positive .1775 .95 Y4 X5 CONSER65 Positive .0185 .95 Y3 x6 CECHRIST Negative. —.u692 .99 Y4 X6 CECHRIST Negative 5.3747 .98 Source: Compiled by author 1 These are defined in Appendix B. is strengthened for Y4 the coefficient, r = .2968, falls short of the adopted confidence level. Irrespective of the lack of a clear spatial varia- tion in the power base of most political parties in Nordland, two of the smaller parties do indicate a degree of region- alization along lines of economic development. So the migra— tion process tends to strengthen the urban activist Socialist 179 Peoples as well as female electoral participation, while favoring the entrenchment of political traditionalism in the peripheral districts.17 Political dichotomies in Nordland of a center-periphery, or urban-rural, nature are in some degree affected by the migration process. Migration is discovered to have a profound impact upon the conditions of life and livelihood in the marginal region. Time persistent net outmigration and migrant selectivity leads to a changing age structure which in turn causes population stagnation and decline. People move away from areas dominated by primary activities and low incomes with the net effect of debilitating the economy of the more peripheral districts. Migration clearly does not influence a redistribution of economic opportunity nor does it tend to even out existing spatial differences in economic prosperity. Instead the migration process enhances the persistence of social barriers to change in communities affected by per- sistent net outmigration. Once initiated the process tends to persist in strength and direction. Thus Nordland County's future appears to be one of continued net selective outmigra- tion with an increasing role played by the central govern- ment in order to prevent further erosion of economic viability and political stability. 17This is also a conclusion in a recent study of political leadership in a North Norway peripheral kommune. See Kjellberg, "Politisk Lederskab i en Utkantskommune." CHAPTER VIII SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS The central focus of this study is an analysis of human migration as a spatial process closely related to regional socio-economic development. Thus the following relations are postulated. 1. Migration in the economically marginal region is initiated or stimulated by a number of space-time persistent processes. Among these are industrialization, urbanization, and depopulation. 2. Migration is affected also by the decision making process as energized by public agencies in the pursuit of national or regional development objectives. 3. The depressed region is dominated by a recurring net loss of people due to migration. h. As exemplified by this net outflow of people the migration process has important implications for spatial change and socio-economic development. A main objective of this study is to assess the existence of the postulated relations within the chosen area of research, Nordland County, Norway. This county is considered representative of depressed areas within the technologically developed portions of the world. General- izations deriving from this research therefore apply in 180 —+ 18in some degree to problems of regional deveIOpment disparities in countries like the United States, the United Kingdom, and Finland, but are likely to apply with greater certainty to other marginal areas within Norway. An initial set of generalizations relates to the character of recent migration streams in Nordland County. It was found that especially strong areal contrastsiin mobility pattern existed for‘the" initial portion of the 1951- 1969 period of research. Rural areas contributed in a major way to the growth of industrial and other urban places. The period of rapid urban expansion reached a peak and most urban places have since experienced a net outflow of people to places outside the county. . It appears that the more industrialized communities, particularly those with a single industry emphasis, are most susceptible to an increasing rate of net outmigration in recent years. An important conclusion reached is that no manufacturing town has managed to attain the threshold of selfsustained growth. Resulting from the urban reexporting of incoming labor from rural areas the spatial contrasts in net migration patterns have weakened measurably. For the county this means that most urban places are now acting as migration funnels through which the county can expect to suffer increased losses of the better educated and more innovative part of its population. In order to identify the major forces and processes influencing migration a comprehensive set of socio-economic, 182 political, demographic. and spatial variables are factor ana- lyzed for two periods of observation, 19h7-l962 (Phase I), and 1963-1970 (Phase II). Pervasive and time persistent dimensions extracted include demographic change, urbanization, and spatial variation in economic activities. Correlating these dimensions to patterns of migrations it is discovered, as anticipated, that the urbanization process is fairly strongly related to the patterns of migration. Migration streams tend to emanate from thinly populated and poorly endowed agricultural areas and move toward areascfi‘larger population as well as those predominantly urban. Industrial- ization as an independent process does not play the expected strong role in directing streams of migration. Probably this is due to the gradual merging of this process with urbaniza- tion thus diminishing its direct and observable impact. Human mobility is influenced in an extraordinary way through steps taken by the national government in its attempts to reach national and regional development objectives. In most situations the efforts to improve conditions of life and livelihood are encouraging an increase in the rate of net outmigration. This despite the prevailing wish for population stability in peripheral areas. Government removal grants, centralization of administrative, educational, postal, and other services, as well as improvements in accessibility and the amenity structure are all facets acting to enhance the conditions for outmigration. Nordland County has for a number of decades been 183 one of the foci of a continuing government attempt at improving local economic circumstances. A variety of regional devel- opment schemes have been implemented through the years. The net effect has been to stimulate the urbanization process and thus the movement of unskilled labor from the more remote and rural areas to urban places. Here vocational skills are acquired and the labor force is increasingly attracted to opportunities hisouthern Norway. There is a developing tendency to favor an overall decentralization policy in behalf of the depopulating peripheral districts and the overcrowding urban places like 0310. But such a policy runs counter to the existing powerful spatial concen- tration and contraction of industry and business seeking to attain improved economies of scale. Evidence gathered for this study indicates that a decentralization policy favoring a maintenance of the present settlement pattern will be inordinately difficult to imple- ment. Anything short of an all out effort at stabilizing the population base of the marginal region will only encourage further outmigration. It is obvious that migration itself influences spatial change in demographic, socio-economic, and political character. The degree of this influence is assessed by applying an outmigration spatial impact model to aspects of migration and spatial change in Nordland County. A substantial portion of the model is found to be well supported by existing conditions. Since migration here emerges as a distinctive 18h factor of regional disparity the research findingsforthe 1951-1969 period of analysis are briefly summarized below. A. Migration and demographic structure. 1. Age selectivity in the miaration process contributes to a youthful age composition in the area of net inmiqration and leaves the area of net net outmigration with a relatively hiah percentage of older people. 2. Sex selectivity results in an excess of young males in areas of outmigration. 3. A persistent net outflow of people will eventually cause active depopulation due to the decreasinq rate of natural increase ordained by age selectivity. 4. Miaration contributes sianificantly to the population concentration process. 5. Migration once initiated tends to persist in direction and strength. In sum, time persistent net outmigration in the Peripheral area leads to a chanaing age structure which in turn causes population stagnation and decline. B. Migration and economic activity. 1. People tend to move from areas dominated by primary activities to manufacturing and urban service centers. 2. Migration does not stimulate the hypothesized dearee of increase in agriculture activity adjacent 185 to expandina urban places. 3. Migration influences an increasinq concentra~ tion of those employed in primary activities, parti- cularly fishing, h. Urban places appear in general to have reached an optimum limit in industrial employment. 5. People move from areas of low per capita income to areas of greater prosperity. 6. With the more innovative and better educated part of the population leading the outmiaration from the more peripheral areas migration does not tend to equalize spatial variations in income. The gap between the poorest and the wealthiest districts in fact is widening rather than closinm. 8. Areas affected by persistent outmiqration depend to an increasing demree upon retirement and social security payments. In sum. mizration discriminates amonq economic activity groups by pullinm people from areas dominated by aariculture and fishing and depositing them in urban centers. This process has the effect of debilitatins the economy of peripheral areas. C. Migration and social change. 1. Selectivity in mizration breaks up the traditional family orranization of rural areas. 2. outmigration is now a social tradition in many peripheral communities. 186 3. Areas of persistent net outflow of people are notably lacking in entrepreneurs and chanae makers. a. Social change thresholds vary with intensity of outmigration. 5. Social barriers to change are affected by the inmiaration of innovative and resourceful people. In sum,net outmigration enhances the entrenchment of social tradition and values while net inmigration liberalizes social values and encourages change. D. Migration and political structure. 1. The peripheral region displays unexpectedly strong contrasts in political party affiliation. 2. The hypothesis that selective migration will aid the position of the socially more conscious urban parties is not well supported. 3. A stronger relationship exists between areas of net outmigration and the concentration of fundamentalist and conservative voters. a. Female electoral participation is positively correlated with a decreasing rate of net outmigration. In sum, political differences of an urban-rural, center-periphery, nature are not related to the migration process in the degree anticipated . Thus the peripheral region, as exemplified by Nordland County, exhibits a pattern of migration which aids the expansion of urban places at the eXpense of areas not 187 able to provide similar opportunities. The migration process affects negatively the conditions of life and livelihood in areas of persistent net outmiaration and as such is a major factor leadina to reqional differences in economic and social welfare. BIBLIOGRAPHY ....--.- .. .. . 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