SIMULATED LONG-RUN HOUSING REQUIREMENTS ' * BY TYPE AND REGION Thesis for the Degree of Ph. D. MICHIGAN STATE UNIVERSITY THOMAS MARCIN 1970 {HEQ‘E This is to certify that the ' 5‘ JR _ thesis entitled Simullafied LongwRun' Housing Requirementé by: $596: and Region ‘\ presented by Thomas Casimer Mdrcin "a has been accepted tovsards fulfiliment of the requirements for Ph.D. degree in Foreshry Date May 5, 1970 Major professor C." I *B‘R'ARY Ll tigan State L niversity ABSTRACT SIMULATED LONG—RUN HOUSING REQUIREMENTS BY TYPE AND REGION By Thomas Marcin Better knowledge of long-run housing requirements is necessary to plan for the nation's future material require- ments for shelter. Long—run housing projections in the past have generally been made in an informal manner which allows no basis for testing or revision of assumptions. Changes in the age composition of the population which can have a major effect on the long—run housing requirements are often ignored. This study provides a systematic framework for projecting the number, type, and geographic distribution of the future requirement for dwelling units which is based on explicit consideration of age-related demographic factors. Projec- tions are made for the period 1970 to 2000. The foundation of the study is a computer model. The model developed in the study brings together many aspects of housing requirements into a single quantified framework. The type of housing unit required, the components of its final disposition, and the regional distribution of housing are integrated into the computer model. Mobile homes are incorporated directly into the model. Annual housing projec— tions are for the first time developed directly from annual projections of population by age class. Alternative time- paths of housing requirements are generated simply and Thomas Marcin economically by rerunning the computer model. The effect of alternative assumptions of future popu— lation and economic conditions on the housing requirement can be quickly and economically assessed by using the com— puter model. The model is used to examine various assumptions about the rate of household formation by population age class (the headship rate), vacancy rates, removal rates, the type of housing unit occupied, and the regional distribution of population. Three series of housing projections are presented in the study for the United States and by region. The highest series assumes the level of housing requirement assumed by the national housing goals. The next series assumes a more modest increase in the housing requirement. These two series form the upper and lower limits of probable housing require- ments. The third series is an analytic series which measures the effect of population change only. The study indicates that population pressure alone will not cause a housing boom of great magnitude. Substantial increases in headship, vacancy, and replacement rates are necessary to reach the level of construction envisioned in the national housing goals. Population pressure will increase in the 1970's, reach a peak in the early 1980's and then decline for the rest of that decade. The total housing requirement is projected to increase in the 1970's and level off in the 1980's. In the 1990's Thomas Marcin the total housing requirement will for the first time be significantly affected by current population growth. Unprecedented changes in the age composition of the population which will occur in the next 30 years will lead to dramatic shifts in the type-mix of the housing require— ment, since the type of housing unit required varies system— atically with the age of the household head. As the great bulge of population born from 19UO to 1960 passes through its life cycle a shift toward single—family housing units is projected to begin in the late 1970's. The study also shows that no change in multiunit occupancy rates by age of house- hold head is required to account for the number of multiple dwelling units constructed in the 1960's. The apartment boom of the 1960's can be accounted for by demographic factors and by a return of housing production to normal mix of the housing stock (30 percent multiunit in 1960) from the abnormal period of high single-family house production of the 1950's. SIMULATED LONG—RUN HOUSING REQUIREMENTS BY TYPE AND REGION By Thomas‘Marcin A THESIS Submitted to Michigan State University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY Department of Forestry 1970 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The author wishes to acknowledge the North Central Forest Experiment Station of the Forest Service, U.S.D.A., for providing partial financial assistance for the early phases of this study conducted at Michigan State Univer- sity prior to my employment by the Forest Service. Dr. Allen L. Lundgren of the NCFES has been especially help- ful in providing advice and encouragement. Professor Robert S. Manthy, my major advisor, provided valuable assistance in formulating the study and in speeding it through the final editorial process. Finally I am deeply indebted to my wife, Sharon and children, Tom and Michelle for their understanding and constant encouragement during this ordeal. TABLE OF CONTENTS rage I. INTRODUCTION .................................... l The Problem ................................... 1 Purpose and Objectives ........................ 5 Organization of Study ......................... 7 Summary of Findings ........................... ‘ 8 II. ANALYTIC FRAMEWORK AND BACKGROUND ............... 11 The Demographic Basis of Housing Demand ....... 12 The Household Life-Cycle Model .............. 15 Housing Types ............................... 21 Components of Housing Demand .................. 22 Household Formation ......................... 25 Vacancies ................................... 28 Replacement ................................. 33 III. THE COMPUTER MODEL .............................. 38 The Demographic Sector ........................ Al The Regional Housing Requirements Sector ...... AA IV. DEMOGRAPHIC PATTERNS ............................ A9 Population .................................... A9 Headship ...................................... 52 Homeownership Rates ........................... 59 Housing Type Occupancy Rates .................. 61 iii Households .................................... 6A Homeowners .................................... 66 Housing Types ................................. 69 V. HOUSING REQUIREMENTS ............................ 71 Input Information ............................. 72 Household Formation ......................... 72 Vacancy Rates ............................... 73 Replacement Rates ........................... 76 Regional Population Distribution ............ 79 Output Information ............................ 81 Total Housing Requirement ................... 82 The Housing Type—Mix ........................ 90 Regional Housing Requirements ............... 9“ VI. SUMMARY ......................................... 97 LIST OF REFERENCES .............................. 105 APPENDIX A - HOUSING REQUIREMENT TABLES ......... 109 APPENDIX B - DEMOGRAPHIC TABLES ................. 132 APPENDIX C - PROGRAM LISTING .................... 173 iv Table 10. 11. LIST OF TABLES Population change by age class for decades from 1950 to 2000 for projection series D ... Headship rates by age class for 1890, 1930, 19A0 and for 5—year intervals from 1950 to 2000 ..................................... Occupancy rates by age class for 1960 and 2000 ........................................ Household estimates and projections for 1960 to 2000 ................................ Total and available vacancy rate estimates and projections for the United States from 1950 to 2000 ........................... Replacement rates for 1950-1956 and 1957-1959 for the United States and regions ........... Convention and overall replacement rate projections for the United States to 2000 ... National housing requirements by type of unit for projection series 1 and series 2 ... Past housing production and series 1 housing projections by type of unit and by region for 1959 to 2000 .................. Components of housing requirements for projection series 1, series 2, and series 30 ................................... A comparison of revised housing goals by HUD with housing requirement projections from the computer model ......... Figure 10. ll. l2. 13. LIST OF FIGURES Flow chart of the model ......................... The number of births in the United States from 1909 to 1990 ............................. Population change by age class for 1960 to 1970 and 1980 to 1990 ...................... Headship rates by age class for 1890, 1950, and projections for 2000 ...................... Ownership rates by age class for 1960 ........... Net household formation for selected age groups from 1950 to 2000 ...................... Ownership and rental requirements for net household formation from 1950 to 2000 assuming 1960 ownership rates ................. Regional distribution of population over 21 years for 1950 to 2000 ..................... Total annual housing requirement projections for series 1, series 2 and series 30 .......... Estimates of past housing production and of series 1 housing projections by type of unit from 1950 to 2000 ..................... Components of housing requirements for projection series 1 ........................... The housing type-mix from 1950 to 2000 for projection series 1 ....................... The total housing requirement by region for projection series 1 ....................... vi Page 40 I. INTRODUCTION The Problem Estimates of future housing requirements are necessary to plan for the wise use of our forest resources. Residen— tial construction is the largest market for lumber and panel products. Residential construction activity has been subject to violent fluctuations which have adversely affected the stability of the forests products industry and the efficient allocation of our forest resource. Annual variations in housing starts of over 30 percent have occurred four times from 1950 to 1968. Even more dramatic movements have marked the long swings of residential construction activity over the last century. Peaks in housing starts several times higher than troughs have been common. Striking changes have also taken place in the type-mix of dwelling units constructed during this century. Grebler, Blank, and Winnick (1953) have pointed out that through the twenties the trend was away from single-family houses. With the exception of one three—year period, the ratio of single— family houses to total housing units declined fairly continuously over the first three decades of this century. The ratio generally ranged from 60 to 70 percent, reaching a low of 56 percent in 1927. In the early thirties the trend 2 reversed, and the ratio of single—family houses reached an all time high of over 90 percent of all housing starts in the mid—fifties. In the late fifties the trend reversed again, and by 1968 the proportion of single—family units to total housing starts was about the same as it was in 1928, 57 percent. Over the long run it appears that about two-thirds of total housing starts are normally single- family units. In the sixties, the mobile home emerged as a dynamic and significant innovation in the housing market. The number of mobile home units shipped increased from 90 thousand in 1961 to 390 thousand in 1969. The mobile unit itself has undergone a dramatic evolution in the last decade. The maximum size of mobile units has increased from 8 feet by H5 feet before 1955 to 12 feet and even 14 feet by 68 feet today. "Double wide" units and units with "expandable" rooms are also offered today. Further relaxation of public high— way regulations regarding trailer size could allow even bigger units to be transported. The mobile home became considerably more competitive with conventional housing units with the introduction of the 12-foot wide mobile home in 1962. The changing type-mix of housing units is of great importance in determining future material requirements for residential construction. For example, a single—family housing unit requires about 13,000 board feet equivalent of wood products, a multiunit housing unit requires about 6,000 3 board feet equivalent, and a mobile home requires only about 3,A00 board feet equivalent. Better knowledge of future housing requirements is needed to plan for future material requirements for shelter. To adequately plan for the proper development and allocation of our forest resource through time more information is needed about the number, type, and geographic distribution of future housing units. The term housing requirement is defined as the addition to the housing stock required by a given population under a particular set of economic and social assumptions. The term housing demand is often used for our definition of housing requirement. However, the term housing demand may be used in other ways. The economist usually reserves the term demand to mean the "effective demand" in the market place, or the number of housing units which consumers are willing and able to purchase or rent. Closely related to the economist's concept of demand is the concept of housing "need". Housing need is defined as the number and quality of housing units required to provide every member of the population with a certain minimum socially adequate level of housing regardless of ability to pay. The distinction between housing need and housing demand is not as clear as the definition would indicate. The standard of decent housing is determined by the same social and economic forces which determine the effective demand for housing. Housing need may be transformed into effective demand by various A forms of government action. For example, the National Housing Goals (First Annual Report on Housing Goals, 1969) represent housing need. Government programs concerned with housing attempt to translate this need into effective demand. To meet future housing needs a systematic framework for long—run projections of housing requirements is necessary for planning realistic national housing goals and for design— ing government programs which may effectively utilize the economic forces of the housing market. The most common method of making long-run housing pro— jections is to consider the components of the housing inven- tory. The components of final disposition of housing units which are usually identified are new households, changes in vacant units, and units for replacement of those units removed from the housing stock by design or disaster. Esti— mates of future housing requirements are made for each of these components and totaled to obtain the final requirement. This method of projection is not objectionable if performed properly. But most often the estimates of these components are made in an informal unscientific manner, and the result— ing projections have no basis on which they can be tested or revised to investigate alternative conditions and assumptions. For example, see "The First Annual Report on Housing Goals" (1969), especially pages I” and 15 where 1967 assumptions are used to determine 1968 goals. An unrealistic vacancy rate of 13.2 percent for 1977 is used, and mobile homes are not considered in meeting the goals. 5 Purpose and Objectives The purpose of this study is: (1) to develop a computer model for projecting long—run housing requirements which makes maximum use of available information related to housing requirements, and (2) to project the number, type, and regional distribution of housing units likely to be required from 1970 to 2000. A computer model is used to develop housing projections in an effective and systematic manner. The many forces which influence the level of housing require— ments are best studied by separating the housing market into components of housing requirements. Each component is studied in detail and relations formulated. As new informa— tion becomes available the model can be easily updated by changing the appropriate model section. In the long-run projection model the use of exogenous variables whose values can be projected with some degree of confidence is highly desirable. One of the few variables which can be projected with some certainty is population already born. The major emphasis of this study is the analysis of the effect of demographic variables in the projection of housing requirements. In summary, the model was developed with the following specific objectives in mind: (1) To develop a comprehensive framework for projecting long-run housing requirements in the form of a computer model. The advantages of this approach are: (a) it forces us to quantify vague concepts, (b) alternative projections may be made quickly and economically, (c) we can disaggregate 6 to a degree otherwise impossible, and (d) the model could serve as a basis for development of more elaborate models. (2) To utilize long—run population projections as the basis for projecting long—run housing requirements. Popula— tion already born is one of the few variables that can be projected with confidence over long periods of time. The number of housing units required for the next 20 years is largely determined by the population already born, since over 99 percent of all household heads are over 20 years old. The projection model is based on annual projections of population by age. (3) To relate long-run housing requirements to the demographic characteristics of the population. The very important relationship of age of household head to the number and type of housing units required over the human life cycle is explicitly included. (A) To develop regional projections of housing require- ments. (5) To use the computer model to examine the effects of changes in the size and age composition of the population on housing requirements. The model is also used to examine alternative conditions and assumptions about future housing requirements. The computer model has two major sections——the national demographic sector and the regional housing market sector. The demographic sector calculates age—related parameters for allocating the total housing requirement by type of unit. 7 Estimates are derived of the number of households by age class and the type of housing (i.e., single unit, multiunit, or mobile home) that would "normally" be required for the given population when all households are provided with units which are "normally" suited to their needs and preferences. The measure of normalcy is occupancy rates by age class as calculated from the 1960 census, with the following exception. The occupancy rate for mobile homes is adjusted upward at the expense of single—family housing units so that the mobile home requirement is consistent with 1969 levels of consump- tion of mobile homes. The regional housing market sector distributes total households by region and calculates the total housing requirement for each region. The total housing requirement is allocated by type of unit using the age-related parameters from the demographic sector and adjustment factors for regional variation. National totals are obtained by summing over the regions. Organization of Study In Chapter 2, the study begins with an enumeration of the basic concepts and background information upon which the computer model is based. First the housing life cycle and the relationship of age of household head to the number and type of housing unit demanded is developed. The last part of Chapter 2 is devoted to the development of a housing 0 market model. A framework for analysis is constructed from basic definitions and identities as a first approximation of 8 the housing market process. The concept of components of housing demand is presented and each component of final demand is discussed. In Chapter 3, the actual computer model is formulated. The input data requirements, the mechanics of the computer relationships, and the output are discussed. Past demo- graphic patterns and projection of future patterns of house— hold formation and housing type requirements are analyzed in Chapter A. The effect of fluctuation in the number of births on the age composition of future population is examined. The rising trend in the ratio of households to population (headship) is also explored. Chapter 5 presents the summary of housing requirements by region and nationally. The housing projections are broken down by type of unit and by components of requirement. Alternative sets of projection series are presented for various assumptions. Chapter 6 summarizes the results of the study and discuss possible uses of the model. Summary of Findings In the short run, the age composition of the population can change very little. But over long periods of time changes in the age composition of the population are pro- nounced and have a major impact on the housing requirement. Failure to consider the age composition of the population can lead to fallacious conclusions about trends in residen— tial construction and consumer preferences. Housing preferences and needs change several times from 9 man's college days until his twilight years. A measure of the effect of age—related changes in the population was derived by dividing the population into age classes and determining the proportion of household heads (headship) in each age class. The number of households in each age class ." was multiplied by occupancy rates for each housing type to obtain a measure of the housing requirement by type. On the basis of these data it was shown that the wide swings in the number of births since 1925 will lead to unprecedented change in population age classes in the next 30 years. Assuming 1960 occupancy rates for multiple housing units, it was found that over half of the shift from single unit housing to multiple unit housing from 1955 to 1968 can be accounted for by changes in the age composition of the population. The requirement for multiple housing units by additional house- holds increased from 27 percent in 1955 to a projected A5 percent in 1971, then declined to a projected AA percent in 1975 and to only 18 percent in 1990. This has obvious implications for the type-mix of future housing. The require- ments for multiple units have ebbed and flowed with the long swings in population. A direct implication of the change in the type of housing required of the population over the human life cycle is that a bulge in births or immigration that increases the population change from one period to the next for young households will initially increase the demand primarily for multiple units. Then, with a delay of as much as 20 years after the initial effects on the requirement for multiple units is felt, the peak increase in the demand for 10 single—family housing units will take place. Considering the upgrading in quality of housing units over the housing life cycle, especially within the ownership market, the peak impact of a population wave on some types of single—family housing units may not occur until 30 or A0 years later. The primary projections, series 1, illustrated in Chapter 5 presume a strong economy and an effective govern— ment housing program. The total housing requirement is pro- jected to increase rapidly through the 1970's, level off in the 1980's and then to increase again in the 1990's. The type—mix of the housing requirement is projected to shift dramatically. The requirement for mobile homes and apart- ments will continue strong through the 1970's, but will weaken in the 1980's. The single—family housing requirement is expected to increase slowly until the late 1970's when it will rise sharply. By the mid-1980's, single—family housing units are projected to dominate the housing requirement while the number of multiple units required will decline in absolute numbers. In the 1990's, the trend should reverse again. The degree of the change will be determined by the number of births in the 1970's. II. ANALYTIC FRAMEWORK AND BACKGROUND An analytic framework for projecting housing require— ments is developed in this chapter. Background information on the conceptual formulation of the model is provided. The analytic framework can also be used to simulate previous patterns of housing demand. First, the demographic basis for projecting housing requirements will be considered by explor- ing the relationship of age of household head to the number and type of housing units required. This relationship is fundamental to the model developed in this study. Next a model of the housing market consisting of a complex system of many interacting forces is developed. The influence of these forces is studied by separating the housing requirement into components. An analytic framework is constructed from definitions and identities and is used to show how the demand for housing may be conceptually separated into components of final disposition, i.e., households, vacant units, and replacement. The many factors which influence housing demand are considered as each component is discussed. A general background of the determinates of housing demand and the housing market process are presented by Grebler and Maisel (1960), Needleman (1965), Grebler, Blank, and Winnick (1953), Gribsby (1963), Maisel (1963), Smith (1966), Winnick (1957), Beyer (1965), Campbell (1963, 1966), Martin (1966), and Atkinson (1966). Projections are dis- cussed by Atkinson (1960, 1963), Gillogly (196A), and Newcomb (1963, 1966, 1967). Smith and Campbell emphasize ll 12 the demographic aspects of housing demand. The complexities involved in choosing a measure of income and relating income to housing is emphasized by Reid (1963) and Muth (1960). Recent econometric models of housing were developed by Maisel (1965) and Sparks (1967). Long-run studies of resource requirements which include housing projections were made by the Stanford Research Institute (195A), Resources in America's Future, Inc. (Landsberg, et a1., 1963), and the Forest Service (1958, 1965). The Demographic Basis of Housing Demand The ultimate purpose of all housing units is to provide shelter for people. Therefore, the most logical and impor— tant place to begin a long—run projection model is by study— ing the characteristics of the population. For a population with a given set of characteristics, a particular mix of housing types would be necessary to provide for their housing needs and preferences. Variables which relate primarily to the characteristics of the population are termed demographic. These variables may include age, sex, race, family status, number of children, etc. Other variables are primarily economic in nature. Economic variables may include income, income expectation, assets, employment status, etc. The first consideration of the model is the relation— ship of population to household formation. The desire and ability to establish a separate household varies with an individual's age, sex, marital status, income, etc. But the primary variable associated with household formation is age 13 (Smith 1966, p. 53). Many variables of interest are highly intercorrelated with age. For example, the sex ratio, martial status, income, and assets have age—related cycles. Age serves as a good proxy for many of these variables. Age also has the advantage for projection because its future value is determined. Age is also a primary factor in other aspects of housing demand. Typically, total population is included in housing demand models directly as an independent variable or indi— rectly as a basis for determining household formation. The usual procedure is to assume an average number of persons per household and to use this ratio to determine the number of households from the total population. A refinement of this approach is to consider the population above a minimum age level as being the relevant housing population variable. This approach fails to consider changes in housing require- ment over an individual's lifetime and is unsatisfactory for this reason. Campbell (1966, p. 3) states that: The number of separate dwelling units demanded by a given number of individuals, the type of dwelling unit demanded, and the average value of the dwelling units demanded all vary systematically between life- cycle stages. Moreover, these differences in hous— ing demand by age class have remained remarkably stable over long periods of time in the United States-~even as real income has risen in all age classes—-and seems to be the result of relatively stable patterns of income, income expectation, family situations, and tastes over the life cycle. Most models of housing demand ignore the effect of changes in the age composition of the population on housing demand. The effect of changes in the age composition as well as the size of the population can be of great importance in 1A determining long-run housing demand. In fact, changes in age composition of the population can lead to changes in housing demand even if economic condition and consumer preferences remain constant. An increase in births such as occurred during and after World War II has its first impact on apartment demand, then after a number of years the peak demand for single-family houses will occur. The number of births in the United States has undergone several long-run cycles over the last 50 years which will lead to unprecedented changes in the age composition over the next 30 years. Campbell (1966) has constructed a model which establishes how and why swings in age composition are important in explaining residential building cycles. Wide swings in age composition of the population which have occurred over the last century in the United States were shown by his studies to be important in determining the type—mix of housing demand. He states that (p. A1): Clearly, if we are ever to properly evaluate the place of population changes in determining past residential building cycles and long swings in economic growth, or to utilize population projec— tions to assess the prospects for future develop— ments in housing markets, the housing life cycle will have to be included in the analytical process. The model developed in this study is similar to Campbell's (1963, 1966) life—cycle model of housing demand. Other authors have used similar approaches to the same prob— lem in a less formal manner (Smith 1966). The starting point of this approach is to divide total population into age classes. The procedure is then to formulate 15 relationships with respect to age. The first life—cycle effect to be considered is the relation of population by age to household formation. Ideally, it would be desirable to represent the entire population profile by single years of age and to move this demographic model through time by applying appropriate birth, mortality, and migration factors. The Census Bureau (Current Population Report Series P—25, No. 381, 1967) has constructed such a model for population projection. The results of the Census Bureau's model, single-year projections of population by age class, are used as the population input of our model. The number of births for the period 1966 to 1969 was slightly below the population series D projection, which was the lowest series. Eight age classes were con- sidered to be significant in the model formulation in this study. They are: (1) 15-19, (2) 20-2A, (3) 25—29, (M) 30-3“, (5) 35‘uu3 (6) 45—5“) (7) 55’6“) and (8) Over 65° The Household Life—Cycle Model A primary goal of this analysis is to isolate demo- graphic factors. For this purpose the concept of headship, h, is defined to be the proportion of the population that heads households; or, = households . population The number of households (HH) can be calculated from the headship rate and the population as follows: HR = h*POP. 16 Where POP represents the demographic characteristics of the population and h is a function of economic and social rather than demographic forces. Age will be the only demographic variable to be considered in this study. But other dimen— sions such as sex, race, marital status, etc., could be added to further distinguish the population array. Household headship first becomes significant in the late teens. Over 99 percent of all households are headed by individuals over 20 years old. The headship rate rises sharply from ages 20 to 29. Almost 50 percent of the popu- lation of age 30 individuals head households, most of whom are married couples. The rate rises slightly from ages 30 to 50. It then increases more rapidly until at age 75 about two—thirds of the population heads a separate household. After age 80, headship decreases rapidly as individuals are no longer able to maintain separate quarters. Headship will approach some definitional upper bound. The ultimate limit would be 100 percent, but if everyone cohabitated as couples then the maximum headship rate would be 50 percent. This state of affairs (so to speak) is reached during the middle age classes in which over 80 percent of the population lives as couples. The Census Bureau (Current Population Report Series P-25, No. 39A, 1968) has recently provided projections of households by type and age class for the period 1967 to 1985. These projections follow the same age cohort format. The basis for the projections is an extrapolation of headship 17 from 3—year averages centered around 1957 and 196A to 1985. This inflexible mechanical projection method leads to the odd result that headship in 1985 will be 55 percent for the 35- to AA—year—old age group and only 51.8 percent for the A5— to 5A—year—old group. The projections are also based on population series B which is outdated by present birth rates. Fortunately, birth rates are not important until after 1985, and the census projections do provide a usable estimate of the mix of household types between families and primary individuals. These projections can serve as an adequate beginning for projecting housing requirements for the next decade if used judiciously. The model developed in this study may use Census Bureau projections, but it also has the capacity for generating other household projections which could be more meaningful in the long run. For example, it is of interest to develop household projections related to alternative rates of GNP or income growth. Alternative population projection series may also be used. Population series D best fits present birth rates. The general household formation relationship can be formulated for the ith population age class and the kth household type in time period as follows: 1k _ ik i HHr1 — hn *POPn where for year n: HHik = total household for age class i and type k POPl = population in age class i 18 hik = headship for household type k in age class i. Household types might include husband and wife families, other families, and primary individuals. Our model will not distinguish household types because of inadequate data, however, this would be worthwhile refinement. The total number of households can be obtained by summing over the age classes and household types. Then: HHTn = E; HHik The intertemporal household increment for the ith age class and kth household type will be: ik _ ik ik AHH — HHn — HHn_l = hik*POPi — hik *POPi n n n-1 n-1 ik = (hn-l . o i + Ahlk)(POP: 1 + APOP ) - ik ° h (hlk i i * n n—l POPn-l)*POPn—l - i ik 1 ik i AhlkPOP + h APOP + Ah APOP n n—1 n—1 n . The first term of the expression represents the effects of change in the headship rate or the effect of nondemo- graphic factors. The second term represents the effect due to change in the size of the population in the ith age class. The third term represents the interaction of changes in both headship and population. If headship does not change then 19 AHRik = h1k APOPl n—l n a and household formation is a function of demographic factors only. The total increment in households may be obtained by summing over k and i. k1 ik AHHT = ZZAHHn For the remainder of this section the superscript k for the household type will be dropped since our model will consider only the gross overall headship rates. However, it should be remembered that in theory household types can be differentiated. The tenure relationship of housing demand can be cal- culated in a manner similar to household formation. A homeownership function can be defined for each age class of .th households. The homeownership requirement for the 1 age class in year n is; Ho: = Oi*HHi where; HOi = the number of homeowners 01 = the homeownership rate among households in age class i th HHl = the households in the i age class. The increment in homeowners is: 1 HH 1 _ i i _ AHO — o RRn on_l n_1 20 i n—l (o + A01) (HR: 1 + AHHl) — i i On-lHHn—l . . o 0 i a = AOlHHl + o1 AHHl + AO AHHl n-1 n-1 . If homeownership rates are unchanged, then; i i AHO = O AHH n l The totals can again be obtained by summation: i i HOTn = ZHOr1 i AHOT = ZAHO . The rental housing requirement will be defined to be the residual of the total requirement and the homeowner require- ment. Then for households in age class i the rental rate is: r1 = (1 — 01). The rental requirement is: HR1 = HHi - HO1 and the increment is ARRi = AHHi - AHOi. The total rental requirement and increment will be; HRT = HHT - HOT AHRT AHHT — AHOT. 21 Housing Types The type-mix of the housing requirement is a major concern of this model. Various classifications of housing type may be made. Either structural types, value classes, or final uses can be distinguished. In this model three structural types are considered: single—family houses, multiple unit structures, and mobile homes. Second homes will also be considered but as a separate classification. Occupancy rates will be defined for each housing type in relation to age class in a manner similar to headship. Occupancy rates for the three structural types must add to one. The second home possession rate is independent of the structural types. th The j housing type required by the ith age class can be expressed as follows: i n ij 13* HTn tn HH where in year n: HTlJ = housing type j occupied by house- holds in the ith age class t:LJ the occupancy rates of housing type j by household in the ith age class 1 households in ith HH age class. The housing type increment is AHTij = HTij - Hle n n—l 22 = 13 i i _ .(tn_l + At) (HHn_l + AHH ) ij i tn-IHHn—I = Atij*HHi + tij *AHHl + AtlJ*AHHl n-1 n—1 . If housing type occupancy rates remain constant, then: .. .. i AHTlJ = tlJl*AHH The total requirement and increment for each housing type may be made by summing over the age classes: . i .- HTTJ = zHTlJ n n i i. ZAHT J. AHTTJ Components of Housing Demand In this section the analytical framework for the housing market is outlined. Beginning with some simple definitions and relationships the demand for housing will be conceptually separated into components of final disposition. New housing will be produced either: (1) to be occupied by additional households, (2) to be added to the inventory of vacant units, or (3) to replace units removed from the existing housing stock. This convenient classification of housing demand by end use serves as a useful device for examining the various aspects of the determinants of housing demand. The determinants of housing demand are the many variables which influence final demand such as income, credit, 23 costs, price, population, etc. Our model can serve as a beginning for the analysis of the determinants of demand. Just as the concept of supply and demand is useful in analyzing market behavior and the concept of national income is useful in the analysis of the national economy, so too is the concept of the components of housing demand useful in studying the housing market. For a variable to affect final housing demand, it must affect at least one of the components of demand. The determinants of housing demand will be examined with respect to each component of demand. To begin the housing market model, HUn is defined to be the stock of housing units in existence in time period n. Those units which are occupied as primary residences as defined by the Census Bureau are designated as households, HHn' Units which are not occupied as primary residences are termed vacant units, Vn' At any point in time, n, the demand for housing units is divided between households and vacant units. This is stated in the following identity: HUn E HHn + Vn. Similarly at the next point in time HUn+1 E HHn+1 + Vn+1. The incremental demand for housing can be derived from the above. (HU - HUn) n+1 (HHn+1 ‘ HHn) + (Vn+l ‘ Vn) AHU AHH + AV 2A Then by definition the increment to the housing stock between periods must be reflected in a change in either the number of households or the number of vacant units. The number of existing housing units may be altered either by the addition of new housing units or by the removal of existing ones. New units may be added by new construction, production of mobile homes, or from other sources such as conversion or adaptation of existing structures. Housing units may be removed from the housing stock for many reasons such as demolition, natural disaster, merger, or abandonment. A net replacement demand, Rn’ is defined to be total removals minus net additions from sources other than new conventional construction and mobile homes. The increment to the housing stock may also be defined to be the sum of new conventional construction plus mobile homes minus net replacement. Then: AHU E (HC + NH ) - R n n n. Total housing demand may be derived by equating the two identities for the housing increment. (HC + NH ) AHH + AV + R n n n Conventional housing construction is: HC E AHH + AV + R — MH 1’1 1’1 n Total housing demand, new construction plus mobile homes, will be determined if relationships can be derived for each of the components of demand. 25 Household Formation In the long run the most important component of housing demand is household formation. The number of households at any point in time is determined by the number of individuals willing and able to occupy separate dwelling units. The most obvious and necessary determinant of household formation is, therefore, the size and structure of the population. A person by definition may have only one primary residence which will be called his household. Any dwelling maintained as second home for occasional use must be considered as vacant. Population sets only an upper limit on the number of households. The number of households is also bounded by the size of the housing stock. A household is an occupied housing unit, thus the number of households cannot by definition exceed the size of the housing stock. If the housing stock is not allowed to expand freely through new construction, then household formation may be restricted by lack of adequate housing units. For example, some families doubled up because of the housing shortage caused by World War II. In the long run, population factors dominate the level of household formation and the supply of housing units adjust to meet this demand. The supply of housing units may come from sources other than convention housing starts, such as the conversions of existing units in the thirties and forties and the additions of mobile homes today. As the previous discussion has indicated, demographic variables are the most important determinants of household 26 formation. These variables are not affected very much by outside economic forces (Adelman 1963). In the long run it can be expected that demographic variables will dominate household formation (Maisel 1963, p. 363). Nondemographic variables are also important in deter— mining the level of household formation. These variables may be classified as social, economic, and institutional. The most important economic variable is the level of personal income, both its size and its distribution. The level of a consumer's permanent income largely determines his ability to establish a separate household (Reid 1963; Freidman 1957). During the Great Depression income, or more precisely the lack of it, retarded household formation. However, for the entire decade of the thirties household formation was only slightly below what was expected from population growth (Campbell 1966, p. 66; Grebler, et a1. 1953, p. 76). During the great economic expansion since World War II, the rapid rise in personal income has been accompanied by a steady rise in headship; i.e., an increase in the proportion of households to population. This increase in headship, which is greatest among the young and old age groups, seems to be related to the prosperous economy and the consequent social changes that affluence has allowed. The distribution of income can also be an important determinant of household formation. The use of social security taxes to distribute a permanent income stream to the elderly and the increase in retirement payments has undoubtedly made possible the rapid 27 increase in headship among the senior citizens. Government action to redistribute income, such as a quaranteed minimum income plan, could also increase the ability of the poor to form households. Household formation may be influenced by other economic variables such as consumer's assets and the cost of housing and credit condition, but the significance and direct effect of these other variables is not easily established. Among social variables, the changing structure and attitude of the family are probably the most important. The increased mobility of our society and the loosening of family ties seems to have been reflected in the willingness of the young and older age groups to maintain separate quarters. The number of individuals maintaining households has increased much faster than the total. The increase is paced by older women who outlive their mates. A movement to communal living correspondingly would decrease household formation. Government action can also be an important institutional influence on housing demand. A government program to supply low cost or free housing to the poor and the elderly could increase household formation among these groups. If poverty is to be eliminated, then household formation must surely be increased among the poor, and in particular the nonwhite minorities. So any government program to redistribute income or housing services could increase household formation. The recent open housing law could also influence household formation by eliminating market restrictions. 28 Vacancies The second component of housing demand is the vacant unit. Vacancies may occur for many reasons, but two broad categories of vacant units can be distinguished: (1) those units available for sale or rent in the market and (2) those units held vacant for other reasons and not available in the housing market. Available vacancies are the housing market inventory of new and used homes which is needed for an orderly exchange of real estate and the migration of people plus a number of units built or held on speculation of future demand. The available inventory will fluctuate widely in response to changes in credit conditions and builders expectations. The construction process from planning to completion of a project or a house and the response of builder to changes in condition takes a considerable length of time. This timelag inherent in the construction activity response can lead to the cyclical behavior of homebuilding activity. In the United States available vacancies in recent years have ranged from a war—induced shortage of 1.6 percent in 1950 to 3.5 percent during the early 1960's. During normal times, it can be expected that available vacancies will range between 2 and A percent of the total housing stock. The primary factor associated with available vacancies is credit. Credit may have several dimensions such as its cost (i.e., the rate of interest), the availability of funds, and the terms of debt. Vacancy is a lagged variable with 29 respect to credit due to the length of the construction process. Also important are the level of vacancies in the previous period and the rate of change of household formation. Expectations also can play an important role in determining the level of vacancies, especially in relation to the factors mentioned above. Other variables which could be significant are rents, prices, and the cost of construction. In the long run the level of available vacancies is a relatively unimportant component of the total housing requirement since it will normally fluctuate between 2 and A percent of the total stock. Typically the long-term lag in mobilization of resources and the inertia of the construction process in response to an increase in long—run demand will lead to overbuilding and unwanted vacancies. This was the case in the late 1920's and the early 1960's. It is likely the late 1980's will also be the same. The second category of vacancy is the intended or unavailable vacant housing unit. The most important type of vacancy in this group is the second home. Housing units may also be held off the market for a variety of reasons, such as speculation during rising prices, lack of buyers in a particular location, dilapidation, or units sold or rented and awaiting occupancy. Unavailable vacancies will be divided between second homes and other miscellaneous vacancies. Second homes are growing in number in this affluent society and have been the object of much discussion and also 3O much confusion. There is a great deal of discrepancy in estimating the size of the second home market and its effect on total housing demand. Estimates of the number of second homes range from 2.6 to 5.0 percent of the total housing stock. A special survey conducted by the Census Bureau and the Forest Service cited below indicated the lower figure. Other surveys by Weyerhaeuser Company, American Telephone and Telegraph, and the University of Michigan Survey Center report the higher figures (Lansing 1966, p. 2; Sumichrast and Seldin 1967, p. 21). These differences arise from the definition of a second home and from neglecting to consider the role of exchange of existing second homes. Most of the second home market is already considered in our model. In the last 10 years there has been no increase in unavailable vacancies rate. If we assume A percent of the vacancies are second homes and the increment to the housing stock is about 1 million units a year, then A0,000 units a year are needed to maintain the overall vacancy rate. An additional 30,000 units a year would be needed to maintain a 1 percent rate of replacement of the housing stock. A recent survey by the Census Bureau (Current Housing Report H-l21, No. 16, 1969) and the Forest . Service reports that second home construction averaged 55,000 units annually from 1960 to 1967. This survey used a rather strict definition of a second home and found a total of only 1.7 million units in 1967 or about 2.6 percent of total housing units. It also reported that 110,000 31 second homes were acquired in 1967. This indicates a large turnover of existing units which requires no new construction. In any case the second home requirement is included in our model and should not be added on separately. Second home demand is by definition vacancies and must be added to the vacancy total. Some second homes are also replacements. There is no statistical evidence that in the last decade the possession rate of second homes has increased, although this is often assumed to be the case. Some forecasters may be guilty of double counting by assuming a vacancy rate and a replacement rate and then an estimated additional need for second homes which may already have been implicitly included. Second home possession is age—related. Generally only the older age classes are financially able to afford an additional home. According to the Census survey only 8 percent of the households heads who possess a second home are under age 35, while 2A percent of all household heads are under 35. The greatest occurrence of second home owner— ship is from ages A5 to 6A. The level of personal income would also seem to be an important factor in determining the demand for second homes. Other factors could include leisure time, availability of credit, and the cost of construction. The second home relationship can be formulated in the age cohort manner which was outlined in an earlier section. For the ith age class in year n: SHRi = Sl*HHl n n 32 where: SHHi = second home households of age i S1 = second home possession rate of age i HHi = households of age i. The total number of second homes can be obtained by summing over i. . SHHT = TSi*HHi n n In this manner change in the number and age composition of households can be isolated from the rate of occurrence of second home possession. The S parameter may be assumed to have a secular tend upward through time. Other miscellaneous vacancies are a relatively unimpor— tant and stable part of overall vacancies. It will be assumed that they will move in the same direction as avail— able vacancies reflecting the overall condition of the housing market. The total number of vacancies can be calculated from the housing stock and the vacancy rate for year n. T T V = v *HV n n n Vacancies may also be calculated from the household total and the vacancy rate. T HHTr1 V _ n (l-VT) 1’1 33 Replacement The third component of housing demand is the number of housing units required to replace existing units which are withdrawn from the housing stock. Each year a substantial number of units are lost from the housing stock. Replace— ment demand constitutes approximately 30 to A0 percent of the yearly housing demand. Estimates of replacement are difficult to make because of a paucity of data. Housing units may be lost from fires, floods, storms, or other disaster. Units may be removed by demolition either by government or private action. Other units may be abandoned and left to deteriorate. Conversions may make two or more units from existing units. Conversely, fewer units may result from merger of existing units. Nonresidential structures may also be adapted for residential purposes. This study is concerned with the net replacement rate of housing units. A certain number of units are added each year by sources other than new construction or mobile home production. These units are subtracted from the gross number of units removed from the housing stock to obtain the net number of removals. The net replacement rate is the percentage of the total housing stock removed in a given year. The replacement rate for housing is dependent on many factors. The age and characteristic of the existing housing stock is very important. The general level of economic growth can be important in stimulating alternative land use 3A and increase the level of personal income. The level of available vacant units which reflects the general avail— ability of housing can also affect removals. When housing is plentiful more units can be withdrawn from the market. Government action to rehabilitate deteriorating units may reduce the need to replace these units with new ones. However, government action also has been one of the most important factors in destroying housing units through urban renewal and highway construction programs. ‘ The replacement requirement for housing may be con- sidered in the short run and long run. In the short run the government may set a goal of removing all substandard housing units. In this case the replacement requirement would consist of replacing or rehabilitating the backlog of units not meeting the minimum standard of decent housing. The relative cost of rehabilitating units versus the cost of new construction would be important in determining the level of each activity. In the long run it is useful to consider the average life of housing. Let us consider the average life of a housing unit to be the number of years that elapse before half of the housing units built in a particular period have been lost from the housing stock. In the long run the normal replacement rate of the housing stock should approximate some average housing life to avoid the accumulation of a quality backlog of outdated units. If the size of the housing stock remains constant 35 then the average life will simply be l/r, where r is the rate of replacement. If the replacement rate is 1 percent, then the average life is 100 years. For a housing stock that is growing, its average life may be calculated from the formula (Needleman 1966): 10s<1 + s + m) r 2r 10g(1 + g) where: n = average life g = annual rate of growth of housing stock r = annual rate of replacement of housing stock. For a housing stock growing at a rate of 1.5 percent a year with a replacement rate of 1 percent a year, the average life would be 62 years. The characteristics of the housing inventory are also important in determining long-run replacement demand. Relatively few new apartment buildings were constructed from 1930 to 1959. Thus, the potential replacement demand for the stock of older apartment buildings is high. The mobile home construction process is less material intensive than conventional construction. The stock of mobile homes is considered to have an average life much shorter than the average life of conventional units. The average life of a mobile home has been estimated to be only 1A years. If we assume that the mobile home stock will grow at an annual rate of 5 percent, then a replacement rate of 5 percent 36 would mean an average life of 1A.8 years. In any case, mobile homes are significantly different from conventional types of construction. Today's rapid advance of technology would indicate a shorter average life for housing and thus a larger replacement demand is likely. Total replacements can be calculated from the replace- ment rate and the housing stock by age class. For the housing stock of age class i in year n replacement is: O R” = :9va1‘] n n n where: HVij = housing stock of type j in age class i rij = replacement rate for type j in age class i R13 = total replacement for type j in age class i. The total for each type may be obtained by summing over the age class. . RR = TrinVij Two housing types, conventional housing units and mobile homes, will be used in our model. No differentiation for age will be made. For conventional units the relation is: 1 1 l R = r HV n n n 37 and for mobile homes it is: 2 2 2 R = r HV n n n. Then total replacement is: III. THE COMPUTER MODEL The purpose of this chapter of the study will be to present a computer model to aid in the projection of housing requirements over extended periods of time. The use of the computer model will enable us to examine in detail the effect of changes in the age distribution and size of the population on future housing requirements. Population by age class is used as a foundation for projecting housing requirement by type. The effects of changes in the components of housing demand can be considered systematically in a comprehensive overall framework. Considered explicitly are household formation, vacant units including second homes, and the effect of mobile homes on new construction. Projections are made for households, home ownership, new construction by type, mobile homes, and second homes. The housing market is essentially local in nature. The model recognizes this fact. It is designed to operate on regional or area vacancy and replacement rate data. National totals are arrived at by aggregating the geographic divisions. The total number of households will be dis- tributed on the basis of projected future population of each geographic division, adjusted for its variation from the national average according to 1960 census data. The total housing requirement will be distributed according to housing type parameters from the demographic sector of the model; again adjusted for geographic variation as recorded by the 1960 census. Four major regional divisions defined by the 38 39 Census Bureau are used in this study. The regions are the Northeast, North Central, South and West. In theory, the approach taken in this model will permit any degree of geographic disaggregation desired. The only restriction is that the set of regions must be mutually exclusive and cover the nation. For example, one could choose the Chicago SMSA, the rest of the North Central region, and the rest of the U.S. as his geographic divisions. It should be noted that each division increases the data requirements of the model and makes manipulation of model parameters more complex. This type of system could be used to arrive at estimates of present housing need by gathering data on a regional basis and to project future housing requirements by geographic division. In this first model most of the parameters are estimated exogenously and combined over time via the computer. Judge- ment and analytic relationships are combined into an overall framework from which hypotheses and econometric relationships could be formulated. Alternative parameter levels could be specified to fit particular sets of assumptions. The model considers the period 1950 to 2000. Of partic- ular interest is the projection period 1970 to 2000. Annual projections are generated for all model variables. Figure 1 presents the flow chart of the model. The computer model has two main sections--the national demographic sector and the regional housing requirement section. The demographic sector is based on eight 0mm RATES A0 DEMOGRAPHIC SECTOR mmou one: OWNERS BY AGE NOUSDCOLOS lY AOE TOTAL OVER IMKNT vmm CONVENTIONAL MKNT RATES IT REODN CWENTIONAL REPLACEMENT IY REM ADJ 1’ FOR REORIAL “Aflgygdzgouu TOTAL OWNERS IEAOSMP IYAOE HOW” "CREW TOTAL 3 f AOE NOUENOLD INMEMENT NCREIENT OWFANCY RATES mm TYPE “CREME!" BY AGE TOTAL NOUSINO TYPE INGREDIENT HOMO TYPE INORWT PERCENT“ W VACANT W13 W113 7 NEW CONSTRUCTM REQUIREKNT TOTAL REQUIREMENT BY REGION BY REGION m nous \___. 3m»? TOTE We" NE Figure 1. Flow chart of the model. A1 population age classes. They are: 15—19, 20-2A, 25-29, 30-3A, 35—AA, A5-5A, 55-6A, and over 65. Household formation is estimated for these age classes. The occurrence of three types of housing structures (single—family houses, multiunit structures, and mobile homes) and second homes are also considered. The demographic sector calculates age—related parameters for allocating the total housing requirement by type. The Demographic Sector The basic steps for the demographic section of the pro— gram are listed below. The index I refers to age class, J refers to housing type and N to the year. (1) Population. Estimates and projections of population, POP(I, N), by age class are read in by single years from 1950—2000. (2) Headship. Estimates and projections of headship, H(I, N), by age class are read in for 5—year intervals from 1950—2000. (3) Households. Households by age class are derived from population and headship. For each age class I households are: HH(I, N) = H(I, N) * POP(I, N). The household increment from the previous year is: DHH(I, N) = HH(I, N) - HH(I, N—l). A2 Total households and the total household increment are obtained by summing over I. I HOT(N) = z HH(I, N) I DHHT(N) = Z DHH(I, N) (A) Homeownership. Estimates of homeownership rates, O(I, N), were made for 1960. Annual rates were set equal to these estimates. The number of homeowners was derived from owner— ship and households. HO(I, N) = O(I, N) * HH(I, N) The homeowner increment is: DHO(I, N) = DHO(I, N) - DHO(I, N—l). The totals for homeowners and the increment to homeowners in all age classes are: I HOT(N) = Z HO(I, N) I DHOT(N) = z DHO(I, N). The percentage of households that are homeowners is also calculated. HOP(N) HOT(N)/HHT(N) DHOP(N) DHOT(N)/DHHT(N) (5) Housing type occupancy rates. Two housing type occupancy rates are defined. A3 They are: (i) The overall occupancy rate for the housing types by age class.-—T1(J, I, N). (ii) The incremental occupancy rate is the rate at which the net annual increment to households by age class occupy different housing types.—-T(J, I, N). If the overall rate is known then the number of housing units for each type required by households is: HT(J, I, N) = T1(J, I, N) * HH(I, N). Given the incremental rate, the incremental requirement for each type is: DT(J, I, N) = T(J, I, N) * DHH(I, N). And the requirement by age class for each type is: HT(J, I, N) = HT(J, I, N—l) + DT(J, I, N). Given the incremental rate, the overall rate can also be calculated as: T1(J, I, N) = HT(J, I, N)/HHT(N). The total requirement and the increment requirement are: I HTT(J, N) = Z HT(J, I, N), and I DHT(J, N) = Z DT(J, I, N). The percentage of household occupancy for each housing type and for the increment of each housing type can be calculated as follows: PHT(J, N) HTT(J, N)/HHT(N) PDHT(J, N) PHT(J, N)/DHHT(N). AA The housing types considered were: J = l - single-family units 2 - multiunit structures 3 - mobile homes A - second homes (6) Second Homes. A secular time trend is assumed for the second home occurrence rate. The rate was adjusted as follows: T(A, I, N) = (l + ATA * (N—20)) * T(A, I, 20) Where ATA is a constant. The Regional Housing Requirement Sector This phase of our model projects the components of housing requirement by region. It distributes the total number of households by region on the basis of regional population projections. Vacancy rates and replacement rates are input for the regions and total housing requirement by, type is estimated for each region. The national total is obtained by summing over the regions. The steps in this section of the model are: (7) Regional distribution of households. The total number of households will be distributed on the basis of the population over 21 years in the region adjusted for the variation of the region from the national household formation rate. A5 The adjustment factor is: Household . A1(K) = POpulation 21+) Reglon K Household U.S Population 21+ The adjustment is made on the basis of the 1960 Census. Estimates of the regional adult population POPR(K, N), are input by 5—year intervals. Single-year estimates are by interpolation. The equation for distributing households between the K regions is: HHR(K, N) = HHT(N) * (A1(K) * POPR(K, N)), k where Al's are restricted so that Z A1(K) = 1. (8) Vacancies and the housing stock. Estimates of vacancy rates, V(K, N), by region are made by 5-year intervals for the period 1950—2000. Annual rates are obtained by interpolation. Vacancy rates include an allowance for second homes. The housing stock, HU(K, N), is estimated from the vacancy rate and the number of households as follows: = HHR(K, N) . HU(K, N) 1 _ V(K, N) Total vacant units are then: VR(K, N) = HU(K, N) - HHR(K, N), and the national totals are: K K HU(N) = 2 HU(K, N); VR(K, N) = 2 V(K, N). A6 (9) Replacement. Replacement rates, R(K, N), by region are estimated for 5—year intervals for the period 1950—2000. Annual rates are obtained by interpolation. These rates apply to conventional constructed housing units only. The mobile home inventory is considered separately. A mobile home replacement rate is estimated separately. The total of conventional replacements needed each year is estimated as follows: RR(K, N) = R(K, N) * (HU(K, N) — HUMH(K, N)). The mobile home replacements are estimated by the relationship RMH(K, N) = S * HUMH(K, N), where S is based on an estimate of the average life of a mobile home. The national totals for replacement are obtained by summing over the K regions. (10) New construction. New construction for each region is estimated from the components of housing demand; household formation, net change in vacant units, net replacement and the net number of new mobile home households. Then new construction is: HC(K, N) = HF(K, N) + DVR(K, N) + RR(K, N) — AMH(K, N), where household formation is: HF(K, N) = HHR(K, N) - HHR(K, N—l), and the net change in vacant units is: DVR(K, N) = VR(K, N) — VR(K, N—l). A7 The net addition of occupied mobile homes, AMH(K, N), is defined later. (11) The type—mix. The number of single—family units is estimated by assuming that the net increment to the housing stock will be distributed according to the increment housing types derived from the demographic section of this model. The component of replacement demand will be assumed to be distributed according to the distribution of the total housing stock. The relation for single-family units for each region K and year n is: HCS(K, N) = (HF(K, N) + DVR(K, N) — AMH(K, N)) * B1(K) * DHT(1, N) + RR(K, N) * B1(K) * HHT(1, N) DHHT(N) — DHT(3, N) HHT(N) — RTTIB, N) where: B1(K) = % mobile homes in region K. % mobile homes in U. S. Multi-family dwellings, HCM, are simply the difference: HCM(K, N) = HC(K, N) - HCS(K, N) The national total is obtained by summing over the K regions. (12) Mobile homes. An estimate of the additional number of mobile homes used in each region as primary households is obtained by adjusting the national percentage of new mobile households for regional variation and multiplying this by the household formation of the region: A8 AMH(K, N) HF(K, N) * B3(K) * PDHT(B, N), where: B3(K) % mobile homes in region K. T mobile homes in U. S. This adjustment is based on 1960 Census data. Total mobile home shipment will be net mobile homes plus replacement adjusted for units not used for primary residences. TMH(K, N) = AMH(K, N) + RMH(K, N), SX where: SX = % mobile homes used as residences. National totals are obtained by summing over the regions. (13) Total housing requirement. The total housing requirement is the sum of new construction plus mobile homes used as primary residences: Tota1(K, N) = HC(K, N) + SX * TMH(K, N). The national total is again obtained by summing over the regions. IV. DEMOGRAPHIC PATTERNS The information input and output for the demographic sector of the housing requirements model is presented in this chapter. The input information requirement for this sector includes population, headship, ownership rates, and housing type occupancy rates for the age classes considered in the model. The relationship of pOpulation by age to household formation and housing type occupancy is considered for the period 1950 to 2000. The output information pro- vided by this sector is the total and annual increment for households, homeowners, and the housing types. The ratio of homeowners and the housing types to the household total and annual household increment is also calculated. A summary of the model output is provided in Appendix B for 1970 to 2000. Specific information by age class is also included in the Appendix. Population Until the 1920's, immigration was an important factor in population change in the United States. But since the enactment of the Immigration Act of 192A, the basis of population change has been fluctuations in the number of births. As Figure 2 shows, the number of births in the United States has undergone some wide swings in this century. These swings will lead to unprecedented changes in the age composition of the population for the remainder of this century. A9 5O 9 8 r- 7 .- 8 - 1”“ I I 5 .. go” I ’a— s e9 V \ Q] / s1 9/ (SI 8 I 4px § 4 - / ,I / / ’l 3 r- 2 ._ ' r 1 1 1 l 1 l 1 l l9lO l920 l930 I940 l950 l960 l970 ISOO l990 YEAR Figure 2. The number of births in the United States from 1909 to 1990. Source: U.S. Public Health Service, Vital Statistics of the United States. 51 A major decline in births occurred from 1925 to 1933 as births fell from almost 3 million to only 2.3 million. An enormous increase in births followed as the "war baby" boom raised births from under 2.5 million in 1939 to over A.3 million in 1957. A sharp decline in births followed, starting in 1962. Births dropped by 800,000 to less than 3.5 million in 1968. A recovery in the number of births is expected in the 1970's as the "war babies" reach child bearing ages. Even the Census Bureau's most pessimistic population projection series D projects births to reach an all time high of A.5 million by 1980. Actual births for the period 1966 to 1969 were slightly below the series D pro- jection. Future population may be projected from an appropriate model of births, mortality, and net immigration. The Census Bureau has constructed such a model and its output is used as input for our model. Annual projections of population by age group were obtained for the period 1960 to 2000 from the Census Bureau (Current Population Report P-25, No. 381, 1967). Annual estimates of population for the 1950's were also obtained from Census Bureau estimates (CPR P-25, No. 310, 1965). Population series D was used in the model since this series most closely approximates recent birth rates. Other birth rate assumptions such as those of series C could be used in the model, but the birth rate assumption does not significantly affect our model until after 1990. 52 The difference in population change by age class due to the past fluctuations in births are illustrated in Table 1. For example, from 1960 to 1970 the number of persons aged 30 to 39 decreased by 2 million, but those of ages 15 to 2A increased by 11.8 million. Figure 3 compares the change in the 1960's. The figures show that the population increase is concentrated in those age groups which were born from 19AO to 1960. In 1970 this population bulge was of ages 10 to 30; by 1990 it will be ages 30 to 50. The annual population projections used in the model are present in Table B3 in Appendix B. Headship The second input to our model is headship. Headship is the proportion of the population that heads households. As such it is a measure of the nondemographic factors in house— hold formation. A headship curve is the relation of headship to age. Figure A shows the headship curve for various points in time. The headship curve has a well-defined shape as the chart indicates. Headship rates have remained relatively constant through the first half of this century. But since WW II headship has increased steadily. The greatest increase has been among the younger and older age classes. The trend toward increased headship cannot continue unabated. Some upper limit of headship will be approached. The ultimate limit is, of course, 100 percent. More realistically, if 86 percent of the population is living as couples and the 53 .H®M flaw OHM .02 .lem mwflhwm .UQM QOHUMHSQOW UGUHHDU awflwQQU USU HO 3QWHDQ .m.D “wuufiom www.mH mRmASH emodwm Hom.mH omnAdH mmm.nwfl oam.mea oao.omfl mem.e~a mfiwlflfla mam.ooa om em>o mfie.e~ Nom.m~ sqo.m~ mm~.e~ mue.w~ ~qe.~m~ hem.mm~ moe.-~ m~m.eo~ smo.omu Hm~.~ma Hence Hum mom mas mom Nam owe4~ Shara Heowa ~e~4H oem mum mm H95 «an own 5mm mwh ome Hm~.m mmH.m mwm.~ owm.~ Hoe.H HmH.H em-om mwh mmm mes mmw Hmm omo.e ~a~.m Nem.q ham.m smo.m mma.~ shuns New meo.a o~o.H mes omm.H som.~ Nom.n em~.o sa~.m mon.e mHe.m sane“ «Ea- aeo.a oqm.H mas Hm~.H mam.m ma~.m m-.m mam.o som.o mHo.m moumo mmm- «mm amm.H mmN.H mmo.H emo.a NNO.¢H oh~.m Hme.w NSH.~ «no.e sauce oee.~ em~.H- -N.H mam.a ~H~.H oes.~H ooo.oa NSN.HH oeo.oH moq.m mm~.~ amumm mme.m See- mmm mee.a amm.a mnn.oa amm.oa mmm.HH mou.HH mme.a om~.w emuom mem.m Hem.~ HHA.H- aa~.H emu.fi mHo.mH mno.ma Nam.oa m-.NH emm.oa ~ea.m mq-ne eme.m oeo.e «on- mum Ham.H osa.o~ Nom.aa sam.HH oom.HH Hmo.HH oa~.oa «sues oe~.H -m.m aHm.N Hms.H- mmH.H mq~.H~ ~om.ma oma.mH Hoo.aa Nem.NH nem.HH mmumm ome.~- moo.m mmo.o Hem- «om mmm.wH mHN.HN NNm.NH emq.HH wna.HH eno.aa emuom Noo.~- mmn.fl Nan.m mea.~ mme.a- NAH.aH sm~.H~ nae.ma mem.ma mmm.oa mom.~H mmunm mno.m Ame.~- ema.m msa.e «em- Nam.H~ oom.wH Ema.o~ Hem.ha SHH.HH owe.HH q~uo~ ohe.e Hao.~- ann.a mme.m ~m~.~ wme.m~ mm~.wu o~m.o~ ooa.me ass.ma who.oa manna “Ho.m eao.m oe~.~- men.m Amo.m Heo.e~ sec.a~ wqm.fia mme.o~ cam.oa ma~.HH sauce Noe mae.e Noe.~- eon.fl ome.m sm~.m~ NmH.m~ ame.ma Ham.o~ www.mH mmm.ma mum em mmo.m oaa.m amn.~- smo.m mmm.m~ men.m~ em~.o~ mme.aa som.o~ oae.ea m when: Amwcmmoosuv Amwcmmsoauv ooom " came " owed " came H coma " u u n u u m nomma " -omaa " -ONSH " -oeaH " nomaa ” ooo~ " oaafl owma " oeofi " coma " o SH " mmmau cocoon msoa>oum aoum owcmno m Henson HouOH m ow< .Q woauow coauoofioum How ooom ou ommH aonm morocco How mmmao own ma mwooao coaumasaom .H manna 5A ISOO-IOOO ”ILL/0N l960- |97O l l l l l l 1 1 1 1 L 1 1 | I | | 0 5 IO I5 20 25 3O 35 4O 45 5O 55 60 65 70 75 BO 85 90) AGE CLASS Figure 3. Population change by age class for 1960 to 1970 and 1980 to 1990. Source: Table l. 55 Oh no 09‘8.uQ< at 0? On .m oanmu .ooom pom meowpoomogd ccm .omma .omma pom mmmao omm kc mopmp dflhmcmom ”condom .: mpsaflm ( ”Exam OOON S d d d 0. Oh {/1 I)‘ 56 remaining 1A percent as singles, then the maximum headship rate would be 57 percent. In fact, headship for the A5- to 5A-year—old group increased from A9 percent in 1950 to 53 percent in 1958 and then leveled off to 52 percent in the 1960's. The headship curve rises abruptly from age 20 until age 30, where it levels off at just under 50 percent. Most people by this time are married and cohabitat in a separate household. Headship rises slowly after this until late middle age and then it increases moderately as death and separation produce more single-person households. Headship increases until about two-thirds of the population in their late seventies have a separate household. Headship declines rapidly after age 80 as individuals no longer are able to maintain separate households. In our model this last decline in headship for the very old is lost due to the aggregation of the 65 and over age group. Headship rates were calculated from estimates of house- holds and pOpulation by age class. Estimates were made from the decennial census of 1950 and 1960. Annual estimates were also made for 195A to 1968. Unfortunately, the annual series for households has a high variance suggesting that an average of several years be used. Current Population Report Series P—20 by the Census Bureau reports estimates of household characteristics annually. As an input to our model, headship estimates from the decennial census of 1950 and 1960 are used for those years. For 1955 and 1965 a 57 3-year average from the annual headship series is used. For the projection period, 1970 to 2000, three alter- native assumptions can be made about headship. These assumptions are designated Series A, Series B, and Series K. The primary projection series, illustrated in this study, Series A, projects present trends with the following restrictions. Headship trends will be modified for a con- ceptual upper bound and headship will increase with age up to the 65 and over age class. Series B assumes a more moderate increase in headship, while Series K assumes constant 1965 headship rates. The headship rates used in the model are illustrated in Table 2. The annual headship rates are also in Table BA of the Appendix B for Series A. Many other assumptions about future headship could be easily examined with the model. By assuming headship to remain constant at 1965 rates, we can measure the effect of changes in the size and age composition of the population on household formation. It would also be possible to develop household projections related to alternative rates of GNP or income growth. In this case, the primary headship series would be associated with a real GNP growth rate of say A percent. A higher GNP growth rate assumption would be associated with higher headship and a lower GNP growth rate would mean lower headship projections. 58 Table 2. Headship rates by age class for 1890, 1930, intervals from 1950 to 2000. 1940 and for 5—year Year : i . -5 ‘fi_ Age class g a 15—19 L 2Q124.i125129.; 30534 : 35:44 : 45-54 : 55-64 : 65: (percentages) 1890 0.6 10.7 27.3 38.5 46.5 52.0 56.0 51.8 1930 .7 11.7 ( 32.8 ) 44.9 50.4 53.7 53.2 1940 .6 11.3 28.2 37.7 44.6 50.7 54.0 56.8 1950 1.2 16.1 32.9 39.9 44.8 49.2 52.0 52.8 1955 1.6 19.0 35.7 42.8 47.5 51.1 54.4 55.1 1960 1.8 22.1 39.6 45.0 48.4 52.6 56.2 56.1 1965 1.6 22.9 42.4 46.1 49.1 52.2 56.4 60.4 Projection series 1970 A,B 1.9 25.1 45.6 47.6 50.5 52.3 57.7 62.9 1975 A 2.0 26.7 46.9 48.8 51.4 52.8 58.0 64.1 B 1.9 26.0 46.3 48.3 50.8 52.3 57.7 63.6 1980 A 2.1 28.2 48.1 49.9 52.1 53.2 58.4 65.2 B 2.0 26.9 46.9 48.9 51.0 52.3 57.7 64.3 1985 A 2.2 29.6 49.2 50.8 52.6 53.6 58.8 66.3 B 2.0 27.8 47.5 49.4 51.2 52.3 57.7 65.0 1990 A 2.3 30.6 49.8 51.4 53.0 54.0 59.2 67.0 B 2.1 28.7 48.1 49.9 51.3 52.3 57.7 65.5 1995 A 2.4 31.5 50.4 52.0 53.4 54.4 59.6 67.6 B 2.1 29.6 48.6 50.3 51.4 52.3 57.7 65.9 2000 A 2.5 32.4 51.0 52.6 53.8 54.8 60.0 68.0 B 2.1 30.5 49.0 50.6 51.5 52.3 57.7 66.2 Source: 1890 - 1950 Campbell (1966), 1955 - 1965 author's estimates based on data from U.S. Bureau of the Census, Current Population Rpt. Series P-20 and P-25. 59 Homeownership Rates Homeownership rates are the proportion of households who own a home. The relation of ownership rates to age in an ownership curve shows that the frequency of ownership increases with age. As Figure 5 indicates, in 1960 owner— ship rose rapidly for those aged 20 to 35 years. Ownership reached a level of 65 percent for the 35- to AA—year—old age class and increased slowly to 72 percent for the 65 and over class. The 1960 estimates of ownership rates were derived from the 1960 Census of Housing and Population (U.S. Bureau of the Census 1963). In the model, ownership rates are assumed to be constant at 1960 rates in order to measure the effect of changes in the size and age composition of the population on the tenure of the number of occupied housing units required. The homeownership rates are reproduced in Table B7 of Appendix B. Many other assumptions about ownership rates can be considered in our model. Decreasing or increasing ownership rates could be assumed over time. Ownership is positively related to income and negatively related to the real cost of mortgage loans. These relationships could be formulated. But for now the model measures just the demographic effects of population on homeownership. 6O .Ammmav mamcoo mrp mo smotzm .n.b Eoem Hump co f\ J comma momeHpmo m.L0hp3< "oopsom .omma Lou mmmflo owm vb mopwp QMEmpcc O .m ohswwm mmjo mw< mm ow no on 0v 0? on on on ON o . a . . a a . a q A . d O O O C‘ to JNJOUJJ 0mm. 61 Housing Type Occupancy Rates Housing type occupancy rates define the proportion of households that occupy a particular class of housing. These rates are defined for household head age classes. Housing types considered are single—family houses, multiunit structures, and mobile homes. An estimate of the second home possession rate is also made. The housing type occupancy rates are presented in Table 3. Housing type occupancy rates were approximated for 1960 from the following considerations. The 1960 census reported 62 percent of the occupied housing stock was owner occupied. It also reported that 69 percent of the housing stock was detached one-unit dwellings. In the model it was assumed that in the future single— unit dwellings would be distributed in a proportion similar to owner occupied units, except that persons over 60 years (past the age for having children at home) would occupy relatively fewer one-unit dwellings. Mobile homes were assumed to be occupied in relatively greater proportion by persons under 35 years. Mobile homes accounted for only about 1.A percent of the occupied housing inventory in 1960. Multiunit occupancy rates were calculated as the residual of single unit and mobile home occupancy estimates for the eight age classes. These occupancy rates are only approximations; but the important factor, the general relationship of age to the housing type required, is adequately represented. A more satisfactory and formal .Amemfiv momcoo mew 00 smopsm .m.D Eopm pump co pommb momeHpmo m_pocp3< I 000H ”oopzom mEo: oHHboE whoposhpm pchHpHSE omsoc pocompop pHQSIoco m m H ”modmp mchsom\m 62 m.0H :.0H :.0H m.m H.: H.m :. H. 000m m.: 0.0 0.0 :.m N.H 0. m. 0 000H moEoe ccoomm 0.0m 0.mH 0.mH 0.mH 0.0m 0.0m 0.0m 0.0m 0.mm 0.:m m.0H m.Hm 0.0m 0.0: 0.0w 0.05 0.»: 0.H0 >.m0 m.m0 0.0: 0.Hm 0 0 000m|050H moHSL mocmqsooo HmpcoEogocH 0.0 0.: :.0 0.0 0.0H F.0H 0.0H m.wH m 0.mm 0.:m m.0H m.Hm 0.0m H.0: 0.0m 0.0m m H.Nm :.HN :.:> m.Hn 0.:m m.mm 0.HH :.0 H 0000 0.m 0.H N. 0.H 0.H w.m m.: m.: m 0.mm 0.:m m.0H m.Hm 0.0m 0.0: 0.0w 0.0» m 0.00 0.0» 0.00 m.0w m.m0 m.0: 5.0m m.Hm H 000H Amowmpcoopomv +me H ee-mm H em-me H ee-mm ” em-om . am-mm H em-om H a:-ma W\m weep M heme mmmHo ow< H mchsom ” .000m pew 000H pom mmmHo own mo mopmh mocquooo .m pomB 63 procedure would be to obtain the occupancy rates directly from Census Bureau data tapes for the 1960 census. The second home possession rate was assumed to be age-related. The recent Forest Service-Census Bureau survey of second homes confirms this relation. Second home possession rates are assumed to increase at a constant rate of 0.3 percent over time for Series A. To adjust the occupancy rate shown in Table 3 for the present high level of mobile home additions to the housing stock, new type occupancy rates are defined for the annual increment to households. These incremental rates are also seen in Table 3. Mobile home occupancy is known to be greater among those under 35, so the curve is weighed as such. The occupancy rates for detached one—unit housing (Single—family houses and mobile homes) are assumed to remain constant. The increase in mobile home occupancy rates is subtracted from single unit occupancy rates as an alternative type of detached one-unit housing. Multiunit occupancy rates are assumed to remain the same. The incre- mental occupancy rates apply only to the annual household increment. They are used to calculate the required increment for each type. The increment rates are held constant for the projection period 1970 to 2000. By applying these rates to the household increment the overall occupancy rate can be changed each year. The result of this is shown in Table 3 for 2000. Tables of the housing type occupancy rates are 6A listed in the computer output tables in Appendix B. The housing type occupancy rates considered here are just one example of how the relation of the age of population to the type of housing unit required can be formulated. The simplest example would be to assume no age effect; i.e., age of occupant has no relation to the type of housing unit. The occupancy rate for each age class would be the same as the overall proportion in this case. Households The basic output of the demographic sector is households by age class. Households are determined by headship and population. Both the number of households and net household formation are calculated annually for the period 1950 to 2000. Net household formation is defined as the increment to total households from the previous period. The number of households and net household formation for Series A are listed by age class in Table B5 and Table B6, respectively, in Appendix B. The totals for all age class are present in the demographic summary Tables B1 and B2 for Series A. The summaries for Series B and Series K are contained in Tables B25-B29. Long—run fluctuations in the number of households in the model correspond to fluctuations in population. Figure 6 shows how Series A net household formation projects for selected age classes vary through time as the population bulge of persons born from 19A0—1960 passes through the various age classes. As the chart indicates, household 65 .womeHpmm m.LOL03< Hootsom .000m on 000H EQLH mosopm omm pmpooHom pom :oHmepoe pHosmmson poz .0 opsmHm 5m; OOON on 000. no 000. 05 22 on 00m. on 08. _ q q u u d u q M 1 OCT .. OO. ICON ..\ .00? I 000 .005 00a as. 1 OO: . CON. L8: 009 66 formation for the 30 to AA age group declines in the 1960's but will increase by almost a million a year by 1985. For the projection period, many sets of assumptions can be made which will generate alternative sets of household projects. Table A shows the three alternative projections of total net household formation made in this study. Projected total household formation will reach a peak in the early 1980's, then decline for the rest of the 1980's in all three series. An upswing in household formation in the 1990's will require an upswing in births in the 1970's as population Series D projections. Homeowners The number of homeowners is determined by the product of homeownership and the number of households. The number of homeowners and the net increment of homeowners for Series A projections are listed in Tables B8 and B9, respectively, of Appendix B. The totals for all age groups are listed in the summary Table D—l. The percentage of total households who are owners and the percentage of household increment who are owners is also listed in the summary tables in Appendix B. The ownership requirement for total net housing formation varies widely over time due to changes in the age composition of households. Under the assumption of constant ownership at 1960 rates, the homeownership percentage of total net household formation decreases from over 65 percent in 1955 to A9 percent in 1967 and 1971. As Figure 7 indicates a long upswing in ownership will raise the annual 67 .omlm onme .pgm COHpmHsmom peoppso .mdmcoo pep 00 :000:@ .m.D I 000H Op 000H ”condom 000 000.0 000.0 000.00 000.00 000.000 0000 000 000 000.0 000.00 000.00 000.00 0000 000 000.0 000.0 000.00 000.00 000.00 0000 000.0 000.0 000.0 000.00 000.00 000.00 0000 000.0 000.0 000.0 000.00 000.00 000.00 0000 0:0 000.0 000.0 000.00 000.00 000.00 0000 000.00 000.00 000.00 00 000000000 x moHLom m moHLom < moHpom x moHLom m moHLom < moHpom mCOHpoowopm 000.0 000.00 = 0000 000 000.00 = 0000 000 000.00 00 000020 0000 mo>hdm COprH ISQOQ peoppzo UOHpom mSOH>oLQ €000 pCoEoLocH UHosomsoz owmpo>< mpHocomzoc Hmpoe Lmow .0000 00 0000 000 00000000000 pew mopmermo UHocomzom .: mHQMB 68 .00000 QHSwLocso 000H wcHESmmw 000m 00 000H Scum coprELo0 pHocmmsoz no: how mucoEopstoL Hapcop 020 QngLocao .0 @03000 Sm» OOON mm 002 no 000. 9. 2.9. no cum. on 00m. 1 d d J I u d 4 d o 9 may 69 requirement to 70 percent of total net household formation by 1990. If we assume that all households who are not owners are renters, then the percentage who are renters is the com— plement of the owners. In this case the renter requirement increased from 35 percent in 1955 to 50 percent by 1970. Then, by the late 1980's the rented requirement will drop to 30 percent. Housing Types The housing type requirement by age class is derived from the housing type occupancy rates and the number of households. In the model until 1960 the housing type requirement is established by the 1960 estimates of occu- pancy. After 1960 net household formation is multiplied by the increment in housing types to calculate the required increment for each type. The increment is added to the existing occupied housing stock by type and the overall type occupancy rate for the total stock is derived. For 1960 to 1969 the increment occupancy rates are adjusted to approximate net additions to mobile home households. For the projection period the rates are held constant at a level which approximates 1969 mobile home additions. Second homes are calculated from the second home possession rate and households. The housing type-mix required by households is summarized for Series A in Table B1 of Appendix B. The percentages of each housing type required in the mix are also listed in 70 Table B2. These percentages are used as parameters to allocate the housing stock increment in the housing require- ments section of the model. The figures used in the individ— ual housing type calculations for Series A are listed in Tables B10 to B25 for single-family houses, multiunit structures, mobile homes, and second homes, in that order. The mix of housing types will change dramatically according to the assumptions used in this sector of the housing requirement model. The multiunit requirement increases from 27 percent in 1955 to A5 percent in 1971. It then falls to only 18 percent in 1991. The conventional single—family house requirement falls from 71 percent to 32 percent and increases to 69 percent for the same years. Similarly the mobile homes requirement goes from 1.3 percent to 2A percent and back to 13 percent of total net household formation for the same period. V. HOUSING REQUIREMENTS Time—paths of housing requirements are generated in the housing requirements sector of the model. The data input requirement for this sector of the model includes projections of total households and regional projections of population, vacancy rates, and removal rates. The output includes annual housing requirements by region and for the United States. The housing requirement series is broken down by type of unit and by component of final demand. The national housing summary is presented in Tables Al and A2 of the computer printout in Appendix A. The regional summaries are con- tained in Tables A3 to A10. Three series of future housing requirements are pre— sented to show how the model can be used to examine alter— native time-paths of housing requirements under various assumptions. The series are designated series 1, series 2, and series 30. Series 1 assumes a large increase in head— ship, vacancy, and replacement rates. This upper time-path assumes that the National Housing Goals will be met through a strong economy and a very high priority for housing. Series 30 is an analytic series which measures the housing requirement due to increase in population only. It assumes constant headship, vacancy, and replacement rates. Series 30 is important because it shows the effect of population pressure alone on the housing requirement. Series 2 is an intermediate series between series 1 and series 30. It assumes moderately increasing headship, vacancy, and 71 72 replacement rates. This series can be considered as the lower range of likely housing requirement. Other series could be generated for various sets of assumption, but they are likely to fall between series 1 and series 2. The assumptions for the components of housing demand used to develop the three series will be considered next. Input Information Household Formation The first input requirement for the housing market sector is net household formation. Household formation will be defined to be the net change in total households from the previous period. Household formation may be obtained from the demographic sector or it may be input exogenously. This provision permits the use of the Census Bureau household projection series which are standard reference series. Of course, it is possible to use many alternative series of household projections. Three series of household formation based on the assumptions of Census Bureau series 1, series 2, and series K will be considered (Current Population Report P-25, No. 39A, 1967). These series are analogous to our series A, B, and K. Each series has been extended to the year 2000. Headship rates have been adjusted among age classes to remove illogical relationships which were pointed out earlier in Chapter 2. The series are also based on popu— lation series D rather than original series B basis. It should be pointed out again that in the model the population 73 series used has absolutely no effect until after 1985 and no significant effect till the 1990's. The household formation projection series are listed in Table 10 on page 87. Series 1 assumes headship will increase at the pace of the last 20 years. This pace cannot continue indefinitely, if only by definition. Series 30 assumes constant headship and measures the increase in households due to changes in the size and age composition only. Series 2 assumes headship will increase at a more moderate rate than the last two decades. Vacangy Rates Vacancy rates by region are the next input to the model. Vacancy rates can be obtained from the Decennial Census of Housing for 1950 and 1960. Quarterly vacancy rates estimates by region were begun by the Census Bureau in 1955 (Current Housing Reports, Housing Vacancies, Series H—lll). Vacancy rates have varied widely by region. These variations will be assumed to continue in the future. Three assumptions about the overall United States vacancy rates are made for the series 1, 2, and 30 projections. The projected rates are listed in Table 5. Series 1 assumes a rapid increase in vacancies after 1970. The average long—run vacancy rate is assumed to increase to 13.6 percent by 2000. Series 30 assumes vacan— cies will remain at the average rate of 9 percent recorded in 1969. Series 2 is an intermediate assumption which assumes average long—run vacancies will rise moderately to 11.3 percent in 2000. Short—run fluctuations in vacancies 7A Table 5. Total and available vacancy rate estimates and projections for the United States from 1950 to 2000. Available and total Year vacancy rates (Percentages) Estimate 1950 Census (1.9) 6.7 1955 Annual series H—lll (2.3) 8.3 1960 Census (3.A) 9.1 1960 Annual series H-lll (3.A) 10.1 1965 Annual series H—lll (3.5) 10.5 1969 Annual series H-lll (2.2) 9.1 Projections Series 1 Series 2 Series 30 1970 (2.0) 8.7 (2.0) 8.7 (2.2) 9.0 1975 (2.6) 9.6 (2.5) 9.3 (2.2) 9.0 1980 (3.1) 10.A (2.8) 9.7 (2.2) 9.0 1985 (3.A) 11.2 (3.0) 10.1 (2.2) 9.0 1990 (3.5) 12.0 (3.1) 10.5 (2.2) 9.0 1995 (3.6) 12.8 (3.2) 10.9 (2.2) 9.0 2000 (3.6) 13.6 (3.2) 11.3 (2.2) 9.0 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1950 Census of Housing, 1960 Census of Housing, and Current Housing Rpt. Series H-lll. 75 will occur about these projected long—run trends. The projected vacancy rates do not include vacant mobile homes, since vacant mobile homes are not counted in housing statistics. It will be assumed that 10 percent of the shipment of new mobile homes will not be used as primary residence. They may be used as second homes or for other purposes. One study indicated one of eight mobile homes used as a second home (Muncy 1968). Accordingly, actual vacancies rates including mobile homes may be higher than indicated vacancy rates. Including vacant mobile homes would raise the series 1 vacancy rate to 15 percent in 2000. Vacancies can also be distinguished between those available for sale or rent and those not available. During normal times the available housing market inven- tory can be expected to fluctuate between 2 and A percent of the housing stock. In 1969 the available housing inventory was 2.2 percent. In 1970 it is expected to drop to 2.0 percent. This rate is projected to rebound from this acute low level to 3.6 percent for series 1 and 3.2 percent for series 2 by the end of the century. The second major type of vacancy is the unavailable vacant unit, including second homes. It is projected to rise by 2000 to 10.0 percent for series 1 and 8.1 percent for series 2. The majority of second home buyers are between A0 and 60. This age group will increase very little in number until the late 1980's, when an upswing in second home requirements is likely to 0001.11". 76 Replacement Rates Regional replacement rates for conventional housing units are also required by the model. The replacement rates are based on the 1960 Census of Housing, Components of Inventory Change (U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1963). Infor— mation is provided on replacement requirements for the periods 1950 to 1956 and 1957 to 1959 by region and by type of unit. The type of housing unit lost did not vary signif- icantly from the overall mix of the housing stock. But A significant differences in replacement rates existed between periods and among regions. These differences will be assumed to exist in the future. Table 6 shows the conven- tional replacement rates by region for 1950 to 1956 and 1957 to 1959. Three replacement rate projections are shown in Table 7. Series 1 assumes conventional replacement rates for the United States will advance to 1.05 percent. Slight variation occurs because of the changing regional distribution of the total housing stock. Series 30, the status quo series, assumes the conventional housing stock will be replaced at the 0.8A percent rate of 1957-59. Series 2 makes an inter- mediate assumption of a replacement rate of 0.95 percent. Mobile homes are considered separately. A mobile home is not included in the housing stock by the Census Bureau when it is not used as a primary residence. Mobile homes are assumed to be withdrawn from use as primary residences at a rate of 5 percent of the occupied mobile home stock. 77 Table 6. Replacement rates for 1950-1956 and 1957—1959 for the United States and regions. , United : North- 2 North- : Period 2 States 1 east 1 central SOUth : West (Percentages) 1950-56 0.A6 0.27 0.33 0.76 0.A9 1957-59 .85 .A8 .65 1.27 1.03 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1960 Census of Housing, Components of Inventory Change (1963). 78 pcoEooquop HHmhc>o pcoEoomHQop HmQOHpco>coo 0H.H 0m.H 0m.H 0m. 00. 00.H 000m 00.0 00.0 00.H 00. 00. 00.H 000H mH.H 0m.H 0m.H 0m. 00. 00.H 000H 0H.H mm.H mm.H 0w. :0. :0.H 000H 00.H 0H.H mm.H 0w. :0. m0.H 000H H0.H 0H.H mm.H :0. :0. m0.H 000H 00.0 00.H 00.H :0.0 :0.0 :0.0 000H Amowwpcoopomv 0m 000000 m mmHLom H 000000 N 0m moHpom u m moHpom " H 000000 0 u 7 0000 .0000 00 000000 000000 000 000 00000000000 pump pcoEoomHQoL HHmLo>o Ucm COHpco>coo .0 mHQme 79 This assumption is made for all regions and for all three series. By adding mobile home replacement to conventional replacement an overall average replacement can be calculated. Regional Population Distribution Estimates of the regional population over 21 years of age are required to distribute net household formation by region. Projections and estimates of population over age 21 are available from the Census Bureau to 1985 (Current Population Report P—25, No. 375, 1967). The assumptions and methodology used to make these projections are outlined in the reference cited above. Census Bureau projection series I—D is used as an input to the model until 1985. Extra— polation of trends is used to make projections for the period from 1990 to 2000. Recent population statistics indicate that the South's share of the population is likely to be greater than was projected by the Census Bureau. Again, other projections of population by region may be easily considered in the model. The projected regional adult population percentages used in the model are illus— trated in Figure 8. A change in the migration rates between regions will, of course, effect regional housing require- ments but will have little effect on the national housing requirement. The model assumes a continuation of present trends in the regional distribution of population. To adjust the model for regional variations in household size, and type of housing unit, the number of households, the population, and the stock of housing units by type of .000 .9... nmmlm. mm0pmm .pmm 200pm0soom unoppzo .mchoo map mo smmpsm .m.D ”mopzom .ooom 00 omm0 pom mpwmz 0m Lm>o c000m03ooo mo 200059000m0© 0m200wom .m opsw0m .XXN mm 092 no n52 KM“) AXE no 055. an n32 . . 1‘ . a . 14 q . 1N 1* 10 no no. 1% IVN Lbflu.¢k9‘ 111111111! gum 4<¢hzw0 zhcoz 1am on :58 1 «n 81 limit must be known for each region for some base year. Eistimates of these factors were obtained from the 1960 CENSUS. The Output Information The computer model generates the total housing require- Ineents from the preceding information according to the pro— <3eadures described in Chapter 3. The increment to the k1c3using stock is assumed to be distributed in proportion to ‘tlie type—mix for the household increment. The replacement rwequirement is assumed to be distributed according to the Ialéoportion of each type in the total housing stock. Total housing requirements for all types of units are E>I°ovided as the model output. The units are separated into cconventional new construction and mobile homes. New con- Stzruction is further divided between one-unit and multiunit stzructures. The housing requirement is also divided into C(Dmponents of households, vacancies, and replacement. Pro- .jéactions of the total housing stock, occupied and vacant, 8J7e presented along with the vacancy rates, the conventional r’eplacement rate, and the overall replacement rate. The IVEEgional summary also provides information on each region's Emaircentage share of population, total housing requirement, allci new construction requirement. 82 T otal Housing Requirement The total national housing requirement for series 1 and series 2 is summarized in Table 8. Figure 9 shows the range of requirements for all three series. The series 1 housing projections for the United States by unit type are presented in Figure 10. Table 9 lists past housing production from 1959 to 1969 and series 1 housing projections by type of unit and by region. Table 10 compares the variation in the components of housing requirements for all three series, while Figure 11 illustrates the components for projection series 1. The future housing requirement is likely to fall between series 1 and series 2. Alternative time—paths of housing requirements can be examined with the model. For example, one could use household assumption 1, vacancy assumption 2, and replacement assumption 3, and generate a new series. The output data provided in Tables 8-10 have been used ’50 develOp projection of housing requirements for the U.S. FOrest Service. An earlier mid-1969 version of projection Seiries l is compared in Table 11 with projections made by the Department of Housing and Urban Development. The I‘eVised projections prepared at that time by HUD total 24,900 million units for the lO—year period 1969—1978. This figure agrees with the 214,887 million units generated by the Cor“puter model. The time—path of housing requirement generated from our model can be easily revised to fit the 83 000 000 000 000 000.0 000.0 000.0 000.0 0000 000 000 000 000 000.0 000.0 000.0 000.0 0000 000 000 000 000 000.0 000.0 000.0 000.0 0000 000 000 000 000 000.0 000.0 000.0 000.0 0000 000 000 000 000 000.0 000.0 000.0 000.0 0000 000 000 000 000 000.0 000.0 000.0 000.0 0000 000 000 000 000 000.0 000.0 000.0 000.0 0000 000 000 000 000 000.0 000.0 000.0 000.0 0000 000 000 000 000 000.0 000.0 000.0 000.0 0000 000 000 000 000 000.0 000.0 000.0 000.0 0000 000 000 000 000 000.0 «00.0 000.0 000.0 0000 000 000 000 000 000.0 000.0 000.0 000.0 0000 000 000 000 000 000.0 000.0 000.0 000.0 0000 000 000 000 000 000.0 000.0 000.0 000.0 0000 000 000 000 000 000.0 000.0 000.0 000.0 0000 000 000 000 000 000.0 000.0 000.0 000.0 0000 000 000 000 000 000.0 000.0 000.0 000.0 0000 000 000 000 000 000.0 000.0 000.0 000.0 0000 000 000 000 000 000.0 000.0 000.0 000.0 0000 000 000 000 000.0 000.0 000.0 000.0 000.0 0000 000 000 000 000 000.0 000.0 000.0 000.0 0000 000 000 000 000 000.0 000.0 000.0 000.0 0000 000 000 000 000 000.0 000.0 000.0 000.0 0000 000 000 000 000 000.0 000.0 000.0 000.0 0000 000 000 000 000 000 000.0 000.0 000.0 0000 000 000 000 000 000 000.0 000.0 000.0 0000 000 000 000 000 000 000.0 000.0 000.0 «000 000 000 000 000 000 000.0 000.0 000.0 0000 000 000 «00 000 000 000.0 000.0 000.0 0000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000.0 000.0 0000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000.0 000.0 0000 0 mm0um0 " 0 mm0umm " 0 wm0umm u 0 m00um0 " 0 mm0umm " 0 mw0umm " 0 wm0umm u 0 mm0umm u “mow mmaos m00noz " 00c50u0=z “ 00a0I0 " uaoamu0n0mu 0muOH " Amu0a= mo mwcmmaosyv .N mwfiuwm wam H mmfiumm GOHuowhoum How u0a= mo mn0u 0A mucw8m00svmu 0c0mso: 0mc00umz .0 m00m0 3600 3400 3200 3000 2800 2600 2400 2200 BM l SERIES l SENES 2 SERIES 3 nwxwwmo IBOO I400 l200 IOOO 800 600 400 200 Fj- gure 9 . 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.H Amuan: mo monumsonHv mmHumm cOHuowfioum now mucmemufinvmu mcwmson mo mucmcoasoo .oH mHomH 3400 3200 3000 2800 2600 24oor 2200 2000 l800 RHOUSWND l600 I400 l200 I000 800 600 400 200 88 I REPLACEMENTS VACANCIES I HOUSEHOLD FORMATIONS 1 l l 1 Figureinu 0eI’ies l. l970 75 '980 85 |990 YEAR 2000 Components of housing requirements for projection .wuomfi>o< ofiaoaoum mo HHuGsoo .Hmosmz .umxxmsuaom .m xHuvawm ou muauHSUHuw< 89 MO udmfiuhmmmm .m.D .mUHEOGOUm HmhfiuHDUHdew HouumHHQ .mHmnHHmmm flog EOHM moaH .OH .uamm uamm Hmuumq umUHDom c.cH squm, H.sH cccqs c.sm ssH.c H.ss snc.cH N.ss ccc.HH c.cm ch.c Ncs.sm cccqsm Hsuoa m.cH cms c.sH ccs H.sm Nsc N.ss csqu s.ss Hcqu‘ s.cm cmc.H ch«~ ccst cncH m.cH cms c.sH ccs m.sm nmc ~.ss csN.H s.ss NsN.H c.cm msc.H mmu.~ scN.N nmcH c.c~ cms c.sH ccs c.sm sum n.ss csN.H H.ms HsH.H s.cm cmc.H sss.~ ccs.~ chH H.cH “as c.sH ccs s.sm smc.H c.5s cNN.H s.~s csH.H 5.5m ch.H ch.m ccs.~ chH c.cH mcs c.sH ccs c.5m «cc c.5s cNN.H «.ms NsH.H ~.Nm ccc ch.N css.N chH m.cH css s.sH ccs N.sm Nsc c.ns ss~.H c.ss smH.H N.sm ssc ssm.~ ccs.N mncfi m.cH css m.sH ccc H.5m cmc m.ss ccc.H s.ss cHH.H N.cm csc 5cm.N cms.~ NNcH s.sH Hms m.~H ccs n.cm ch c.cs sac c.Hs ccc “.ms “cc csm.N HHm.N HNcH s.cH 5cm s.cH ccs c.5m “cc c.sm scm N.ss msc s.sc msc csH.~ csH.N chH s.cH ssm m.c~ ccs s.sm sss c.Hm cms c.ms ccn c.5s sec cac.H smc.H cscH ammo "muHcD “ ucou “muHGD " ucmo ”muHaD " ucmo "muHas u uamo "mafia: u ammo "muHcD " Hmooz " oom " lumm “ " lumm " ” lumm " u lumm " " Inmm ” ” lumm " u u " “mow Have: " ccm " Hmcoz " can " Hmcoz “ ccm “ macsu HHm " uHGS mac: mHHooz " uchwuHsz u awn: mech ” Hauoe u Amqun mo moammsonav .Hmooe mow Baum mGOHuummoum unmawufismmu waHmsos nufis oom mo mHmow wdfimson ommH>mH mo comfiummaoo ¢ .HH mHowH 9O condition of the housing market expected in the 1970's. The revision can be done quickly and economically by simply changing the assumptions for 1970's and rerunning the computer model. Thus the model can provide up—to—date projections to fit any conditions. The projections presented in this study were made in February of 1970. The Housing Type—Mix The model presents only one mix of housing types. It is based on the assumptions that housing units will be replaced according to the existing mix of the housing stock and that the increment to the housing stock will be distrib- uted in proportion to the housing type-mix of the household increment as discussed previously. Slight variations occur among the three series because of the differing proportions of required housing increment to the required replacement. Figure 12 shows the relative housing mix for series 1. Other housing type-mix series could be constructed from the basic mix series. The model could then be used to project how occupancy rates by age class would have to change through time to be consistent with that series. For example, one could assume 1 percent annual shift from single-family units to multiunit structures from 1970 to 1975. The mix of housing types presented projects the effect of changing age composition upon which other assumptions or trends can be superimposed. A surprising conclusion that can be drawn from the results of this study is that the occupancy rates by age for 91 .cmcHucmcH soc moccascss m.cccccs ccs c chsc ”mopoom .H moHLom COHpoomopo pom ooom ow ommH Eopw xHEIoozp wchson oom .NH opsmHm 5m» ooo~ no com. on com. 2. 2.2 no oom. no oom. 1 m a u q q q d J o n--n1\\ \\\l(\i/!\\\. \ \ oft/1 o. \\ \ \\. \\\ \ K; “Jag \\ \ 1 ON I“‘“\|‘)'I/:':""' II IIII'"""II\\ \. \\ /o \c // Azcéci ‘\//./\. . 0n 1| >4 .25. Baa-m MBJUJJ 92 multiunit structures appear not to have changed much in the 1960's. While there has been a major shift from the 1950's to the 1960's in the production of multiunit structures, this has been more of a shift back to the normal mix of the total housing stock. There has also been a shift to large apartment complexes from multiunit structures of less than four units. The overall mix of the housing stock in 1960 was 70 percent detached one—unit structures (69 percent houses and 1 percent mobile homes) and 30 percent multiunit structures. In 1990 and 1950 it was 64 percent detached one-units and 36 percent multiunit structures. The 1950's were an unusual decade when almost 90 percent of new housing units were single-unit structures. Historically this was an abnormal high percentage. Many factors contributed to this boom in sales housing, particularly the availability of funds for government—insured mortgages. By 1960 there was a large stock of recently built single-family houses, while the stock of multiunit structures was mostly either built before 1930 or converted from existing structures in the 1930's and 1940's. With favorable demographic patterns, increased apartment construction was a natural occurrence in the 1960's. In the 1960's the mix of housing units produced, including mobile homes, between detached one-unit structures and multiunit structures is about what would be expected assuming 1960 occupancy rates of housing types by age class. In the last decade l6,U60,000 housing units were produced including 9,290,000 single-family houses, 2,0“7,000 mobile 93 homes, and 5,123,000 multiunit structures. 0f the total 31.1 percent were multiunit structures. This is only slightly above the 30 percent share multiunits had of the housing stock in 1960. In other words, multiunits are holding their share of the total stock taking age composition into account, while mobile homes are increasing their share relative to conventional single—family houses. The impact of ignoring mobile homes in housing start statistics is also apparent from the model output. For example, in 1969 over “5 percent of housing starts were multiunit structures. But only 36 percent of total housing production were multiunit structures when mobile homes are included. The overwhelming preference of families for single— family homes seems undiminished in the 1960's. Studies by the Survey Research Center of the University of Michigan indicate fully 85 percent of all families state their pref— erence is to live in a single-family house, and that as one proceeds up the income scale the proportion of families living in single—family homes increases to over 90 percent (Lansing 196“, 1966). Projected increases in per capita income and the shifting of demographic patterns in favor of early middle age groups by the late 1970's seem to indicate that a swing toward single-family structures in the long run is likely. By projecting these occupancy rates the model has been very useful in indicating the effect of changing age 9M composition of the population on housing requirements. The model provides a logical reason for projecting one time-path of housing mix other than the usual conjecture about changing consumer preferences, land costs, etc. Other time-paths of housing mix could be developed from this basic series. Projection of the type-mix of the housing requirement was also prepared by HUD as shown in Table 11. HUD used a method and assumptions similar to this model's. Ownership rates derived from the 1960 census were applied to Census Bureau series 1 household formation projections for 1969 to 1978. HUD projections are for sales units. A 7.3 percent difference exists between the HUD projections and projections made in this study. This difference probably arose from the approximately 8 percent difference between renter occupied housing units and multiunit structures in 1960. The HUD projections equate rental units required with multiple units required. Our model maintains the 8 percent difference. If this adjustment is made the HUD projections are almost the same as the results of this study. The data from 1966 survey of occupancy of new housing by HUD (1968) affirm the ownership rates used. Regional Housing Requirements The model is developed on a regional basis, so regional series exist for each of the three time—paths of housing requirement. These series are available in computer printout in the appendix. Replacement rates, vacancy rates, and the mix of housing types vary widely by region. The model has 95 assumed that these factors will continue to vary in the same proportion in the future. The South and the West previously have had higher replacement rates, vacancy rates, and rates of population growth than the Northeast or North Central regions. They also have had a larger share of the new housing construction than they have had of total population. Mobile homes also constitute a large proportion of the housing stock in the West and South. The Northeast has the largest percentage of multiunit structures. All of these factors are implicitly included in the housing market of each region. The model assumes these variations to continue. The regional projections of total housing requirements are presented in Figure 13 for projection series 1. A detailed study of the housing requirement for each region was not possible due to the lack of adequate regional data. Therefore, only a general estimate for each region is possible. But the model developed here attacks the problem of geographic disaggregation directly by developing its projections on a regional basis. The model presents long—run projections of housing requirements for each region which are consistent with national time-paths of housing requirement. These series should prove useful at least as a starting point for regional planning and regional analysis of future housing requirements. 96 .m oHomB "oopoom .H monom coHpoonopo Loo conop co pcoEopHSmop wchzos HopOp ope .mH opome 5w» OOON om omm. no oom. 05 gm. no omm. on com. _ q . d _ _ . H _ O .55 .562 P iv. , \ / .59 -.III: I s ..\| l..l!.. /\.. x ,. .8. .558 :EoHVt“. \| I 0 I It" ‘ " "".“ 400m m 1....” OD: l 1 CON. .. 8n. .. 000. o. VI. SUMMARY This study was undertaken to develop a computer model to project long-run housing requirements by type of unit and by region. The study provides annual projections of housing requirements for the next 30 years. The study is the first in a series of studies that are needed to determine the impact of future housing requirements on forest land manage— ment. The next step in the process is to determine the volume of wood that would be required to project the total housing requirement. A step in this direction is being made in a concurrent thesis by Paul Ellefson which is designed to measure the volumes of wood that will be required in single— family homes in the North Central region. The information provided by this study is of general housing needs for the entire nation and should be of interest to anyone concerned with the long-run housing requirement. The foundation of the study is a computer model which uses the ability of the computer to disaggregate and process information to generate alternative time-paths of housing requirements simply and economically. Mobile homes are incorporated directly into the housing supply by the model. The model relates housing requirements directly to projections of annual population by age class. This unique feature allows us to consider explicitly changes in the age composition of the population with respect to a person's housing life cycle. In these times of concern about population growth this model is well—suited for examining 97 98 the impact of alternative rates of population growth on the long-run housing requirement. The model examines alternative time—paths of housing requirements for a population of given characteristics. These elaborate examinations of the housing requirement are not sufficient to predict future housing market behavior. To simulate the housing market requires an equilibrium model of both supply and demand in the housing market. But when dealing with a product in relatively fixed supply and subject to lags in the construction process it is useful to consider the probable housing requirement rather than the actual market behavior. In the long run it can be assumed that the supply of housing units will respond to changing patterns of housing requirements. The supply response may be subject to considerable lag and can take many forms. By examining the model results we can state the conditions necessary to achieve a particular level of housing require- ment. And by considering demographic factors directly, the model provides an insight into the nature of future changes in the size and type of the housing requirement. In the long run demographic factors must be satisfied. The model is used to examine alternative assumptions about future housing requirements. The question the model addresses itself to is: Given an assumed population base and certain assumptions about the components of housing requirements, what set of housing requirement projections will satisfy these conditions? The model can also be used 99 to work backward from a given housing requirement to determine the assumptions consistent with the requirement. Three series of housing requirement projections are provided by the study to help answer this question. The model can also be used to examine the mix of housing types projected to occur in a particular housing projection series. One important question to be answered concerns the relation of mobile homes to conventional housing starts. Mobile homes are a substitute for conven- tional construction. What the actual housing type-mix will be in the future is a very difficult question to answer because many factors must be considered. We can answer the question: Given a certain pattern of housing type occupancy, what will be the required housing type—mix if these rates are assumed to remain constant in the future? The model used in this way is very useful for estimating the effect of changes in the age composition of the population on the type of housing unit required. The model provides a logical reason for making housing type—mix projections. Other assumptions may be entertained about change in preferences and life styles, but the age composition effect must still be considered. Regional summaries of housing requirements are provided by the model; in fact, the national summary is obtained from the regional summaries. The model provides an estimate of the housing requirements in each region for any set of regions covering the United States, given a set of 100 assumptions about the regional components of housing require— ment. Thus, the model provides regional projection series which are consistent with a national housing requirement series. These series should be useful for regional studies and planning. On the basis of the projections provided in the study, the following conclusions can be drawn about housing prospects: (1) POpulation pressure alone is not enough to cause a housing boom of large magnitude. Population pressure will increase in the 1970's and reach a peak in the early 1980's. But increases in headship, vacancy, and replacement rates are also necessary to produce a large increase in housing requirements. (2) The national housing goals as indicated in projec— tion series 1 will not be met unless there is a drastic reordering of national priorities and substantial spending to rebuild our cities. Projection series 1 requires steady increases in headship, vacancy and replacement rates. Some necessary conditions for this to occur are: (a) Continued low unemployment and growth of per capita real income particularly for the young and the poor. (b) Expanded housing opportunities for the old and the poor either by direct or indirect subsidies. (c) A substantial budget surplus to be used to provide capital and to free resources for housing. One study estimates a $20 billion surplus would be needed by 101 the mid—1970's. (d) A major rebuilding program for our cities. It is unlikely that series 1 housing requirement projections can be attained in this decade. It is simply a case of "missiles or houses", not both. (3) Mobile homes now fill a substantial proportion of the housing requirement. It is misleading to consider only housing start statistics. Total housing production including mobile homes in 1969 was nearly 1,900,000 units, of which nearly 21 percent were mobile homes. Production of mobile home housing units will continue to diminish the requirement for conventional housing starts. (A) The projected increase in population and housing requirements is largely concentrated in those age groups born from 19A0 to 1960. The type of housing unit required over the next 30 years is anticipated to shift to meet the needs and preferences of these age groups as they pass through the stages of the housing life cycle. The great concentration of pOpulation increase in this relatively small range of age classes at similar stages in their life cycle will probably produce a large market for housing units of similar characteristics. Of the projected increase in population over 20 years of age in the 1970's of 23 million, 15.” million will be of ages 20 to 3A. In the 1980's, of a projected increase in population over 20 years old of 19.6 million, 15.3 million will be of ages 30 to AM. In the 1990's, 1A.? million of an increase of 18.3 million in 102 projected population over 20 years of age will be 40 to 5A years old. Dramatic changes in the type of housing unit required will occur in the next 30 years if the historic relationship of type of housing unit occupied to the age of household head continues in the future. How the housing supply will respond to these changes in the age composition of the population is not known but we can surmise the follow— ing: (a) Large—scale apartment developments and mobile home production will continue to fulfill the housing require- ments of the large number of young households in the 1970's. Multiunit structures could account for 50 percent of housing starts from 1970 to 197U. (b) A large potential market for some type of moderately priced single—family housing unit will build up in the mid-1970's as the number of households in the 25—3A year old age group increases rapidly. This is the age group in which households usually acquire their first single- family house. Some type of large community tract develop— ment featuring both single-family housing units and multiunit structures is likely to occur. ”Operation Breakthrough", the recent program of the Department of Housing and Urban Development to promote new building systems and the pooling of local markets for the large-scale production of housing units should stimulate this type of development. (c) In the 1980's the number of households in the 30—44 year old age classes are projected to increase by 103 nearly a million a year. This age group occupies a high percentage of single—family housing units and, unless there is a drastic change in living patterns, there will be a tremendous increase in the requirement for single—family housing units. (d) A large number of apartments will still be built in the early 1980's, but over—capacity is likely to occur by the mid—1980's as the decline in births of the 1960's has its effect. In the 1980's an absolute decline in the number of households under age 25 is projected. (e) The second home requirement in the 1970's will not be as great as is often anticipated since there will be little growth in the number of households aged “0—60. This age group is the major market for second homes. By the late 1980's a large potential increase in the second home market should develop as the number of households in their UO's increases rapidly. (f) Custom built and individually styled homes are also demanded principally by individuals in the NO to 60 age group who are upgrading the quality of their housing. In the 1990's when the number of households in this age group is projected to grow sharply, a new era of individ— ually styled homes is likely as our affluent middle—aged society seeks to improve the quality of its housing. (g) The requirement for housing by our senior citizens will continue at its present strong pace until the late 1990's when the decline in births from 1925 to 1935 becomes significant. 104 (5) The present acute housing shortage is likely to continue to get worse in the early 1970's. New housing production will be absorbed by population pressure and will keep vacancy rates from rising. Replacement of housing units will be retarded by the shortage of housing and little progress will be made in upgrading the housing stock unless there is a massive increase in the supply of housing units. In the 1970's it will be difficult to improve the quality of the housing stock. (6) The 1980's should present an excellent opportunity to upgrade the housing stock. Population pressure will reach a peak in the early 1980's and decline significantly in the decade. The momentum of housing programs and the mobili— zation of resources for homebuilding in the 1970's should provide a large housing production capacity. The combination of an adequate housing supply plus a decline in population pressure should allow for substantial rebuilding of cities and replacement of substandard housing units. (7) The 1990's should be marked by continued upgrading of the housing stock and the addition of a large number of second homes. The number of births in the 1970's or current population growth will for the first time become a signif— icant factor in determining the total housing requirement. LIST OF REFERENCES LIST OF REFERENCES Adelman, Irma. 1963. An econometric analysis of population growth. American Economic Review 53(3): 314—339. Atkinson, Jay L. 1966. Factors affecting the purchase value of new houses. Survey of Current Business 46(8): 20-35. 1963. Long-term influences affecting the volume of new housing units. Survey of Current Business 43(11): 8-19. §K . 1960,» Factors in the housing market. Survey of Current Business 40(4): 16—22. Beyer, Glenn H. 1965. Housing & Society. 595 pp. New York: MacMillian Co. Campbell, Burnham O. 1966. Population change and building cycles. Bulletin Series, Bureau of Economic and Business Research 91, 199 pp. Univ. of I11., Urbana. 1963. Long swings in residential construction: The postwar experience. American Economic Review, Papers & Proceedings 53(2): 508—518. First Annual Report on the National Housing Goals, Trans- mitted by the President, January 17, 1969. House Document No. 91-63, 101 pp. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office. Friedman, Milton. 1957. A theory of the consumption function. Princeton: Princeton University Press. Gillogly, David. 1964. Projections of housing demand for 1975. In the Outlook on Consumer Behavior, Charles LiningeF—(ed.), Foundation for Research on Human Behavior, 131 pp. University of Mich., Ann Arbor. 105 106 Grebler, Leo, and Maisel, Sherman J. 1963. Determinants of residential construction: A review of present knowledge. In_lmpacts of Monetary Policy, D. B. Suits, et a1., Research studies prepared for the Commission on Money and Credit, pp. 475-620. Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey: Prentice-Hall. ; Blank, David; and Winnick, Louis. 1956. Capital formation in residential real estate. National Bureau of Econ. Research, 519 pp. New York. Grigsby, William G. 1963. Housing markets and public policy. 346 pp. Philadelphia: Univ. of Penn. Press. Landsberg, Hans H., et a1. 1963. Resources in America's future. 1017 pp. Baltimore: John Hopkins Press. Lansing, John B. 1966. Residential location and urban mobility: The second wave intervals. Survey Research Center, 115 pp. Univ. of Mich. , et a1. 1964. Residential and urban mobility. Survey Research Center, Institute for Social Research, 101 pp. Univ. of Mich. Maisel, Sherman J. 1965. Nonbusiness construction. In The Brookings Quarterly Econometric Model of the United States, J. S. Duesenberry, et al., (ed.), pp. 178-201. Chicago: Rand McNally. 1963. A theory of fluctuation in residential construction starts. American Economic Review 53(3): 359-383. Martin, Preston. 1966. Aggregate housing demand: Test model, Southern California. Land Economics, pp. 503—513. Muncy, Suzanne. 1968. The mobile home industry. Special supplement to Economic News Notes, National Association of Home Builders, pp. 7-11. Washington, D.C. IWuth, Richard F. 1960. The demand for non—farm housing. lg The Demand for Durable Goods, Harberger (ed.), pp. 29—96. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. Ifleedleman, Lionel. 1965. The economics of housing. 232 pp. London: Staples Press. quwcomb, Robinson N. 1967. Financing housing for the next decade. National Association of Homebuilders, 64 pp. Washington, D.C.: Homebuilding Press. 107 A Newcomb, Robinson N. 1966. Construction forecasting. In How Business Economists Forecast, William F. Bulter and~ Robert A. Kavesh, pp. 186—220. Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey: Prentice—Hall. 1963. Forecasting housing markets. In Dynamic Aspects of Consumer Behavior, Lininger (ed.), The Founda- tion for Research on Human Behavior, pp. 57-73. Ann Arbor, Mich. Reid, largaret G. 1962. Housing and Income. 415 pp. Chicago: The Univ. of Chicago Press. Smith, Wallace F. 1966. Aspects of housing demand-absorp- tion, demolition and differentiation. Research Rpt. 29, Institute of Urban and Regional Development, 89 pp. Univ. of Calif., Berkeley. Sparks, Gordon R. 1967. An econometric analysis of the role of financial intermediaries in postward residential building cycles. In Determinants of Investment Behavior, Robert Ferber (ed.)T National Bureau of Economic Research, pp. 299-331. New York: Columbia University Press. Stanford Research Institute. 1954. America's demand for wood: A report to Weyerhaeuser Timber Company. 404 pp. Stanford, Calif. (Sumichrast, Michael, and Sheldin, Harry. 1967. Components of future housing demand. 70 pp. Washington, D.C.: National Housing Center. U.S. Bureau of the Census. 1969. Second homes in the United States. Current Housing Rpt. Series H-l21(l6), 34 pp. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office. 1968. Projections of the number of households and families 1967 to 1985. Current Population Rpt. Series P-25(394), 20 pp. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office. __ . 1967a. Revised projections of the population of the States 1970 to 1985. Current Population Rpt. Series P-25(375), 110 pp. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office. 1967b. Projections of the population of the United States by age, sex, and color to 1990, with exten— sions by age and sex to 2015. Current Population Rpt. Series P—25, 124 pp. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office. 108 U.S. Bureau of the Census. 1963. U.S. Census of Housing: 1960. Volume IV, Components of Inventory Change, Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office. Housing vacancies. Current Housing Rpt. Series H-lll. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office. Population characteristics. Current Population Rpt. Series P-20. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office. .S.D.A. Forest Service. 1965. Timber trends in the United States. Forest Resource Rpt. 17, 235 pp. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office. 1958. Timber resources for America's future. Forest Resources Rpt. 14, 714 pp. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office. .8. Department of Housing and Urban Development. 1968. Occupants of new housing units, mobile homes and the housing supply. Housing Survey, Parts 1 and 2, 152 pp. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office. Winnick, Louis. 1957. American history and its use. 143 pp. New York: Wiley. APPENDICES APPENDIX A - HOUSING REQUIREMENT TABLES Table Table Table Table Table Table Table Table Table Table Al—2. A2—2. A3—2. A4-2. A5—2. A6-2. A7-2. A8—2. A9-2. AID—2. 110 Series 2 housing requirements for the United States - type of unit required. Series 2 housing requirements for the United States — components of housing requirements. Series 2 housing requirements for the Northeast - type of unit required. Series 2 housing requirements for the Northeast — components of housing require- ments. Series 2 housing requirements for the North Central Region - type of unit required. Series 2 housing requirements for the North Central Region - components of housing requirements. Series 2 housing requirements for the South — type of unit required. Series 2 housing requirements for the South - components of housing requirements. Series 2 housing requirements for the West - type of unit required. 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APPENDIX B DEMOGRAPHIC TABLES Series A U.S. demographic by type of unit. summary Series A U.S. demographic by type of unit. summary Series A U.S. demographic for population. summary Series A U.S. demographic for headship. summary Series A U.S. demographic summary for total households. Series A U.S. demographic summary for the household increment. Series A U.S. demographic summary for ownership rates. Series A U.S. demographic summary for total homeowners. Series A U.S. demographic summary for the homeowner increment. for households for households by age class by be by by by age age age age age age class class class class class class Series A U.S. demographic summary by age class for single—family housing occupancy rates. Series A U.S. for single—family housing incremental occupancy rates. demographic summary by age class Series A U.S. demographic summary by age class for total occupied single-family houses. Series A U.S. demographic summary by age class for the increment to occupied single-family houses. Series A U.S. demographic summary by age class for multiunit housing occupancy rates. 142 Table Table Table Table Table Table Table Table Table Table Table Table Table Table Table B15. B16 . B17. B18. B19. B20. B21. B22. B23. B211. B25. B26. B27. B28. B29. 1A3 Series A U.S. demographic summary by age class for multiunit housing incremental occupancy rates. Series A U.S. demographic summary by age class for total occupied multiunit housing. Series A U.S. demographic summary by age class for the increment to occupied multiunit housing. Series A U.S. demographic summary by age class for mobile home occupancy rates. Series A U.S. demographic summary by age class for mobile home incremental occupancy rates. Series A U.S. demographic summary by age class for total occupied mobile homes. Series A U.S. demographic summary by age class for the increment to occupied mobile homes. Series A U.S. demographic summary by age class for second home occupancy rates. Series A U.S. demographic summary by age class for second home incremental occupancy rates. Series A U.S. demographic summary by age class for total second homes. Series A U.S. demographic summary for the second home increment. by age class Series B U.S. by type of demographic summary unit. Series B U.S. by type of demographic summary unit. Series K U.S. for by type of demographic summary unit. 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