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Date July- 21, 1982

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7503‘

THE STATUS OF FUTURISTICS IN THE ADMINISTRATION
OF COMMUNITY AND JUNIOR COLLEGES IN
THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

BY
Kenneth Randolph Riley

A DISSERTATION
Submitted to
Michigan State University
in partial fulfillment of the requirements
for the degree of

DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY

Department of Higher Education and Administration

1982

ABSTRACT

THE STATUS OF FUTURISTICS IN THE ADMINISTRATION
OF COMMUNITY AND JUNIOR COLLEGES IN
THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

BY
Kenneth Randolph Riley

The purpose of the study was to describe futuring
practices in community and junior colleges and to
describe the major content of the product of these prac-
tices as well as selected elements from the best avail-
able plans. To accomplish this purpose, a sample of 303

administrators were drawn from the 1979 Community, Junior

 

and Technical College Directory.

 

The administrators were mailed a questionnaire
and asked to respond to seventy-eight questions and
statements, and to provide planning documents such as
college mission statements, college goals, results of
futuring sessions, and entire or complete plans for the
college.

The questions and statements were organized under
four major headings as follows: (1) the identification
and rating of social trends; (2) the rating of the

feasibility and desirability of alternatiye future

images of the community college; (3) present participa-
tion and importance of futuring processes; and (4) pres-
ent and future institutional goal priorities. Two hun-
dred and twenty-one, or 73 percent of the respondents
completed and returned the questionnaire.

The two social trends of greatest significance
were: energy shortages and advances in science and tech-
nology. Six others were of moderate significance. The
community-based college was considered the most desir-
able future image. Other competing or supplementary
images were the career-based college and the development-

based college.

When futuring processes were considered, it was
found that the most heavily practiced process was,
periodic and specific activities to identify major insti-
tutional strengths and areas for improvement. Corres-
pondingly, the least practiced futuring process was the
writing of scenarios.

Present and future priorities revealed community
and junior college administrators programing traditional
transfer programs for both the present and the long term.
Some new programs could be tried but only as a second
priority.

The sorting, categorizing, and evaluation of the
planning documents, with other elements of the study,
led this researcher to conclude that the steps taken in

futuristics in community and junior colleges were

limited and minimal, but that there was enough direction
for community and junior college policymakers and plan-

ners who want to be more effective at planning.

To Mr. Livingstone Conrad Riley and
Mrs. Thelma Ford

for all they mean to me.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

A number of people influenced my decision to
persue higher education and were actively involved in
getting me started. This eventually led to the writing
of this dissertation. To all of them I am deeply grate-
ful and appreciative.

Dr. Albert Mowery, former Regional Director of
Michigan State University Extension Center in Benton
Harbor, was instrumental in helping me to negotiate the
many hurdles involved in getting accepted at a major
university. Once accepted, Dr. Jim Lehman, former Presi-
dent of Lake Michigan College, offered invaluable
assistance and encouragement.

Assistance also came from the Lake Michigan Col-
lege Board and President Walter Browe, who granted a
sabbatical to continue my studies. It is also appro-
priate at this time.to thank Katherine Bady and Rene
Fischman for adjusting their schedules and work loads so
that it could be possible for me to take leave of the
division.

Some financial support for the dissertation came
from the COMBASE Consortium through Dr. Gundar Myran,

President of Washtenaw Community College. Dr. Myran also

iii

assisted in the construction of the questionnaire and the
selection of a panel of competent persons to evaluate the
questionnaire.

My long association and profound respect for Dr.
Bernard Lall, Professor of Higher Education and Admini-
stration, Andrews University, Berrien Springs, led me to
request that my dissertation committee appoint him as an
external advisor. Dr. Lall filled the role with distinc-
tion. Many thanks.

Statistical assistance and advice were provided by
Dr. Wilfred Futcher, Professor of Educational Measurement
and Statistics at Andrews University.

Fellow colleague and dear friend, Dr. Jonas
Dalton, was always there. He helped with statistical
advice, read drafts, and offered invaluable suggestions
and advice. I

The writer is especially grateful and deeply
indebted to each member of the committee for assistance
in reading the drafts and the offering of constructive
criticism.

The writer holds in the very highest esteem the
contribution of Mrs. Kathryn Cash, the typist, who dared
read my handwritten cepies and never once complained.

Her experience in dissertation preparation was valuable
and I will always be grateful to Dr. Dorothy Hilderbrand
for introducing me to her.

iv

Much thanks and gratitude is extended to Dr.

Melvin Bushman, who provided guidance, motivation, and

many helpful suggestions throughout the study. Without

his assistance, this study could not have been completed.
Finally, I am deeply indebted to Reneé my daugh-

ter, and Linet my wife, for providing quiet spaces and

an environment within which I could work.

List of
List of

Chapter

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Tables . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Figures . . . . . . . . . .

I. INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . .

II. THE COMPONENTS OF FUTURIZING AND A SEARCH

Background and need for the study

Statement of the problem . . . .
Purpose of the study . . . . . .
Questions to be answered . . . .
Significance of the study . .

Definition of terms . . . . .

Delimitations . . . . . . . . .
Organization of the study . . .

OF THE LITERATURE . . . . . . . . .

Definition of futuring . . . . .
The mission . . . . . . . . . .
The objectives . . . . . . . . .
Stages of futurism . . . . . . .
Theory and supportive research
Differences between conventional
futuristic planning . . . . .

Tools . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Human reasoning . . . . .
Delphi technique . . . . . .
Trend evaluation . . . . . .
Cross-impact analyses . .
Relevance trees .
Images . . . . . .
Scenario . . . . .
Summary . . . . .

III. METHODOLOGY . . . . . . . . . . . .

Research Design . . . . . . . . .
The Sample and Sampling Procedures
Methods of Data Analysis . . . . .
Presentation of the Data . .

vi

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31

IV.

V.

RESULTS OF THE STUDY . . . . . . . . . .

Scale Values Social Trends . . . . . .

Future images: feasibility and
desirability . . . . . . . . . . . .
Futuring processes: present practice
Futuring processes: importance . .
Present goal priorities . . . . . .
Goal priorities for 1985 by region and
size . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Pearsons Product Moment Correlation
Soc1al trends . . . . . . . . . .
Future images: feasibility
Future images: desirability . .
Futuring processes: yes and no
Futuring processes: importance
Present goals: priority . . . .
1985 goals: priority . . . . .

Disciminant Analysis . . . . . .

Social trends . . . . . . . . . .
Futuring processes: Eigenvector l
Futuring processes: Eigenvector 2

Chi-Square . . . . . . . . . . . .

Social trends . . . . . . . . . . . .

INTERPRETATION OF RESULTS . . . . . . .

Discussion of Results . . . . . . . . .

Unit interval scales: social trends .
Images: feasibility and desirability
Futuring processes . . . . . . . . .

Present goal priorities . . . . . . .
Priority goal statements for 1985 . .

Pearsons Product Moment: social trends

Images: feasibility . . . . . .
Images: desirability . . . . .
Futuring processes . . . . . . .
Present goal priorities . . . .
I985 goal priorities . . . . . . . . .

Discriminant Functions: Trends . . . .

Discriminant functions: futuring
processes . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Summary: Discussion of Results . . . .

Futuring processes . . . . . . . . . .
Present goal priorities . . . . . .
Goal priorities 1985 . . . . . . .

vii

173
176

VI. SUMMARY, CONCLUSIONS, AND RECOMMENDATIONS

Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Planning documents . . . . . . . . . . .
Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Recommendations . . . . . . . . . .

Recommendations for further research

APPENDIX A: Questionnaire . . . . . . . . . . . .
B: Community and Junior College Experts
C: Regions.of the United States and
Number of Respondents in Each
Region Responding . . . . . . . .
D: Correspondence . . . . . . . .
E: Interval Scales for Regions and
Colleges Grouped according to
Size . . . . . . . . . .
F: Colleges Grouped according to Size
SELECTED BIBLIOGRAPHY . . . . . . . . . . .

viii

179

179
184
185
196
198

200
209

211
213

220
233

235

10.
11.

12.
13.

14.

15.

LIST OF TABLES

Scale Values for Trends--by Regions . . . .

Scale Values for Trends-~by Colleges Grouped
according to Size . . . . . . . . . .

Scale Values for Future Images: Feasibility

Scale Values for Feasibility of Future
Images: by Colleges Grouped according to
Size . . . . . . . . . . . . ... . . . .

Scale Values for Future Images:
Desirability . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Scale Values for Desirability of Future
Images: by Colleges Grouped according
to Size . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Order and Extent to which Futuring Processes
are Used in Community College . . . . .

Scale Values for Futuring Processes: in
Importance O O C O O O O O O O O O O O O O

Scale Values for Futuring Processes: by
Community Colleges . . . . . . . . . . .

Scale Values for Present Goal Priorities . .

Scale Values for Present Goal Priorities:
by Colleges Grouped according to Size . .

Scale Values for Goal Priorities 1985 . . .

Scale Values for Goal Priorities 1985: by
Colleges Grouped according to Size . . . .

Pearsons Product Moment Correlations among
the Regions with Respect to Social Trends,
Using Scale Values . . . . . . . . . . .

Pearsons Product Moment Correlations with

Respect to the Feasibility of Future Images,
Using Scale Values . . . . . . . . . . . . .

ix

57

59

63

64

65

67

69

70

72

74

79
83

87

91

92

16.

17.

18.

19.

20.

21.

22.

23.

24.

Pearsons Product Moment Correlations with
Respect to the Desirability of Future
Images, Using Scale Values . . . . . . . .

Pearsons Product Moment Correlations with
Respect to Whether or Not College Admin-
istrators were Using Futuring Processes,
Using Scale Values . . . . . . . . . . . .

Pearsons Product Moment Correlations with
Respect to the Importance of Futuring
Processes, Using Scale Values . . . . . .

Pearsons Product Moment Correlations with
Respect to Present Goal Priorities,
Using Scale Values . . . . . . . . . . . .

Pearsons Product Moment Correlations with
Respect to 1985 Goal Priorities, Using
Scale Values . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Standard Discriminant Function by School
Size: Social Trends . . . . . . . . . . .

Standard Discriminant Function by School
Size: Futuring Processes . . . . . . . .

Standardized Discriminant Function by School
Size: Futuring Processes--Eigenvector 2 .

Chi-square Analysis by School Size: Effort
to Identify Trends . . . . . . . . . . . .

94

95

97

98

100

101

104

107

109

10.

LIST OF FIGURES

Location of College Group by Size on
Discriminant Function: Social Trends . .

Location of College Group by Size on
Discriminant Function: Futuring Processes--
Eigenvector l . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Location of College Groups by Size on
Discriminant Function: Futuring Processes--
Eigenvector 2 . . . ... . . . . . . . . . .

A Response by Community College Administra- ~
tors from Community Colleges Grouped as
Small, Medium, and Large . . . . . . . . . .

Feasible Images of the Community College from
Community Colleges Grouped as Small, Medium,
and Large . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Desirable Images of the Community College
from Community Colleges Grouped as Small,
Medium, and Large . . . . . . . . . . . . .

A Response by Community College Administra-
tors from Community Colleges Grouped as
Small, Medium, and Large, on the Importance
of Futuring Processes. . . . . . . . . . . .

A Response by Community College Administra-
tors from Community Colleges Grouped as
Small, Medium, and Large, to Nineteen
Present Goal Priorities . . . . . . . . . .

A Response by Community College Administra-
tors from Community Colleges Grouped as
Small, Medium, and Large, to Nineteen Goal
Priorities for 1985 . . . . . . . . . . . .

A Response by Community College Administra-
tors from Community Colleges Grouped
According to Regions on Eighteen Social
Trends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

xi

102

105

108

221

222

223

224

225

227

11.

12.

13.

14.

15.

Feasible Images of the Community College
from Community Colleges Grouped according

to Regions .

Desirable Images of the Community College
from Community Colleges Grouped according

to Regions .

Futuring Processes .

1985

xii

Response by Community College Administra—
tors from Community Colleges Grouped
according to Regions on the Importance of

ResponseturCommunity College Administra—
tors from Colleges Grouped according to
Regions to Nineteen Present Goal

Priorities

Response by Community College Administra-
tors from Colleges Grouped according to
Regions to Nineteen Goal Priorities for

228

229

230

231

232

CHAPTER I

INTRODUCTION

Background and need
for the study

 

Community and junior colleges in the United
States experienced growth in students and facilities
during the decade of the 19603 which was unparalleled.
This phenomenal growth tapered off considerably in the
19703 as community and junior colleges attempted to
determine their future in a period of generally declin-
ing enrollments in postesecondary education.

Declining enrollments was only one of the con-
cerns of community and junior college educators. Other
concerns were: the vigorous competition for students
among institutions of higher education; the diverse
ndxture of students who enroll; the expanding needs of
students against institutional decrease in resources;
the increased competition with other areas of the public
sector for scarce financial resources; and other accel-
erating changes brought on by technological, societal,
economical, and political forces (King,‘1975, p. 36).

The emphasis on change, more than any other con-

cern, was felt keenly by some thoughtful and concerned

1

2
community and junior college educators. Gleazer
expressed that concern in this manner: "We are living
in times of almost uncontrolable change and we do not
know how to deal with it" (1973, p. 41).

Clearly, if community and junior colleges are
to achieve their mission, educators must come to grips
with the concern of accelerating change. The reason is,
change affects the manner in which community and junior
colleges relate to their communities and serve their
needs.

Tathan (1978, pp. 10-11) observed that "the era
of the 1970's and the 1980's must be that of coopera-
tion among college staff, and between college staff and
the community it serves." COOperation with its commu-
nity provides the college with a clue to the changing
needs of the community, so that planned change is pos-
sible rather than a resort to crisis management.

Most community and junior college educators seem
to agree that it is important to manage their institu-
tions efficiently. The question that is uppermost in
their minds is, how do you manage efficiently? when, as
C00per points out,

. . . only two things are certain. First the world
of tomorrow will be different from the world of
today, and second that the needs of business with
change as a consequence. The ability to anticipate,

prepare for and possibly help to mold changes by
systematic forethought and planning must clearly

3
give the business an advantage over one that merely
tries to adapt to changed circumstances. (1974,
p. 122)

community and junior colleges are not businesses
but the rationale is applicable. The considerations
of forethought and planning should not be overlooked.
Perhaps it should be looked at in a different manner.
Gleazer (1973, pp. 41-43) appears to have this in mind
when he said, "Our structures have let us down, and yet
the present structures are determinging our goals."
This was not a commentary against planning, but it
appears to be a comment to put planning in perspective
or to provide the planning process with the information
which will make it effective.

There is no disagreement with the advocates of
long-range planning as found in the work of Hungate
(1964, p. 8); Dressell, and Palola and Padget (1971,
pp. 229); McGrath (1964, p. 78); Dressell (1976, p. 15);
Mayhew (1979, pp. 12-15). Also acceptable is the work
of steiner(1963, pp. 1-5) on strategic planning, and
that of Cooper (1974, p. 75), on contingency planning.
There is no need to reject the conclusion of Rarig
(1968, p. 127) on long-range planning, and it is under-
standable why Landsburg (1975, p. 170) found "flexibil-
ity and adaptability" as important behaviors in a suc-
cessful comprehensive community and junior college.

However, this study on futuring is expected to provide

4
planning in all its form with direction and assistance
in the explication of how the characteristics of flex-
ibility and adaptability can be achieved in community
and junior college administration.

The need for this study can more clearly be
understood when it is recognized that in the discussion
of all forms of planning a great deal of attention has
been given to institutional change to meet changing
environments. It does not seem that enough attention
has been given to the people who must respond to change,
provide for it, and manage the changes which will come
about. Eckstein (1974, p. 13) expresses this idea by
placing side by side the external orientation of trends
and the internal orientation of values, as the context
in which managers must anticipate change. Such antici-
pation provides for policy and mission statements, which
allow for social, technological, political, and economic
trends and value shifts. It is consistent with what
has become known as futuring.

The idea of futuring has been growing steadily
for some time and is being utilized by government,
business, industry, and education. The practice of
futuring is engaged in by the Commission on the Year
2000 of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, to
study problems and issues the United States government

expects to face in the future (Perloff, 1971, p. 23).

5

In a similar manner, the U. S. Congress has
established the Congressional Clearing House on the
Future, to study the consequences of "decisions made
today" (Anderson, 1978, p. 292).

Shane (1972, pp. 9-10) recognizes the interest
of the U. S. Government in futuring as well as profit
and non-profit organizations and education. Landsburg
(1975, p. 169) appears to be missing the mark when he
observed that community and junior college administra-
tors are hemmed in by "too many external variables
beyond their control." The Carnegie Commission on
Higher Education suggested a more positive approach when
they observed:

Higher education, state and federal support
notwithstanding, should take the major initiative
in determing its own future. Too often it has been
the recipient of change rather than the originator
of it. A new generation of leadership is required,
if higher education is to design its own future and
not merely live in the framework others will have
built for it. (Priorities for Action: Final
Report of the Carnegie Commission on Higher Educa-
tion. (1973, p. 89)

Vator emphasizes the need for futuristics in

education when he said:

The essence of these activities [futuring] has
been to encourage individual self-determination and
control over one's own future. . . . Our interest
so far is to orient persons to dimension of time
about which they are relatively ignorant. . . . It
should stretch their minds, not "blow" them. It
should certainly inform them. (1972, pp. 89-90)

The need was also noticed by this researcher's

6
interest in long-range planning over a period of time.
This led to an association with Dr. Gundar Myran, who
recognized a distinct relationship between futuring and
long-range planning. This was partly a result of his
being a futurist, but no less a result of his being
president of a community college, dissatisfied with the
results of long-range planning, but in search of
improved methods to manage change more effectively in
policy development and goal setting.

In this context, the work of Rarig (1965) and
Landsburg (1975) cannot be overlooked. Rarig came to
the conclusion that long-range planning was "the most
single administrative tool that could aid in providing
vitality and direction to community and junior colleges
of the future" (Rarig, 1965, p. 127). Rarig did not
consider futuring as an aspect of long-range planning.

Landsburg, in his study of long-range planning,
rejected Rarig's conclusions, but recommended an adap-
tive stance which "can be accomplished with or without
long-range planning" (1975, p. 170).

The effectiveness of the arguments presented
in the literature, the impact of social trends, the
strength of images, the recognition of value shifts,
the increasing use of the practice of futuring in busi-
ness and industry, government, and higher education,

the differing conclusions about the value and

7
effectiveness of long-range planning in community and
junior college administration, led this researcher to
believe that there was a real important need for this
study.
After studying this background material, it was

clear to this researcher that there existed an impor-
tant need to learn the extent to which community and

junior colleges were engaged in futuring.

Statement of the problem

 

The problem is twofold: (1) many community col-
leges do not include futuring as part of their planning
process; (2) the literature review reveals that futuring
is important to all aspects of planning. Therefore,
there is a need to investigate the extent of futuring
in community and junior colleges.

Why is this a problem? The response takes into
consideration three elements: (1) the literature sug-
gests that futuring is important to all aspects of plan-
ning; (2) a couple of national studies on community and
junior colleges came to different conclusions about the
effectiveness of long-range planning (Rarig, 1965;
Landsburg, 1975); (3) neither of the above studies con-
sidered futuring essential to planning. Had they done
so, their conclusions could have been different. There-
fore, it is expected that this study will contribute to

the furtherance and effectiveness of all aspects of

 

8
planning and will offer some insights on how a community
and junior college might achieve adaptability and flex-

ibility.

Purpose of the study

The purpose of this study is: (1) to study the
extent to which community and junior colleges are
engaged in futuring, (2) to identify the extent of pres-
ent practice, and (3) describe some of the best elements
and practices which are available.

In preparation for this study, this researcher
conducted a literature search. There was a paucity of
information related to futuring in community'and junior
college. So little was available that it could be con-
sidered as nonexistent. However, much material was
available on several aspects of business and industry,
government and higher education. From this available
information the component parts of futuring were
selected.

Questions to be answered

This study was intended to answer the following
questions: (1) to what extent are community and junior
colleges engaged in futuring? (2) what is the present
state of futuring among community and junior colleges?
(3) what are some of the best elements and practices

available?

Significance of the study

This study should provide a number of signifi-
cant contributions. These are as follows: (1) provide
insights on how long-range planning could be effective
and contribute to the strengthening <1f all aspects of
planning; (2) provide insights on the achievement of
adaptability and flexibility in community and junior
college administration; (3) improve planning and admin-
istrative practice, which could provide for efficien-
cies.

Definition of terms

 

Community and junior colleges are all those
institutions so designated in the 1979 Community and
Junior College Technical Directory.

Futuring is an approach to planning for the
future which is concerned with sharpening data and
improving the processes on the basis of which policy
decisions are made in community and junior college
administration. The objective is to help policy makers
choose wisely in terms of their purposes and values,
among alternative courses of action that are open to
them at any given time (Shane, 1972, p. 1).

This definition treats other terms, such as
"futures," "futuristics," "futurism," "futuribles," and
"futurology" as synonomous with futuring, although this

researcher admits the appropriateness of the

10
reservations made by DeJouvenal about the term
"futurology" (Pulliam and Bowman, 1974, p. 3; World
Future Society Catalog, 1980, p. 55; Welch and Watson,
1979, p. 3; DeJouvenal, 1967, pp. 16—19.

Image is a mental picture of something not
actually present.

Image of the future is a condensed and crystal-
ized expectation among peOples in certain periods and
developed in systematic projections toward the future
(Bundy, 1976, p. 11).

Trend is a change in a variable that takes place
over an extended period of time (The Future: A Guide
to Information Sources, 2nd ed., p. 654).

Scenario is a description of events that might
possibly occur in the future. It requires a study of
the facts of the situation, the selection of a develop-
ment which might occur, and imagining the sequence and
range of developments which might occur (The Future: A
Guide to Information Sources, 2nd ed., p. 653).

Delphi Technique is a method of soliciting and
aggregating individual opinions or judgments, typically
of a group of experts, to arrive at consensus views con-
cerning such things as what may happen in the future.
Anonymity is preserved, social influences minimized, and

questions and results are presented in a structured

 

ll
manner (The Future: A Guide to Information Sources,
2nd ed., p. 649).

Administrators include those persons whose

 

chief responsibility is to conduct the administrative
duties of the college within the guidelines established
by the governing board of the college, and for the real-
ization of the educational enterprise for which the
college is known (Gainer, 1970), p. 21).

Extrapolation is "extending a curve into the

 

.future simply by assuming that the variable will con-
tinue to change at the same rate and in the same direc-
tion" (Dibsbury, Jr. & Crider, 1979, p. 174).

Relevance Tree is

 

. . . a diagramatic technique for analyzing systems
or processes in which distinct levels of complexity
or hierarchy can be identified. . . . A relevance
tree allows an analyst to identify various aspects
of a problem or a proposed solution and thus arrive
at a more complete understanding of his subject.
This technique is also useful for identifying unin-
tended side-effects of innovations (Dibsbury, Jr.

& Crider, 1979, p. 177)

Cross-Impact Analysis is "an attempt to iden-

 

tify the various effects that developments have on each
other. For example, the effects two variables might
have on each other“ (Dibsbury, Jr. & Crider, 1979, p.
173).

Counter-Intuitive is the behavior of variables,
developments, or systems which are contrary to one's

natural expectations.

 

12
Alternative Futures is

Possible forthcoming developments. The term empha-
sizes that the future is not fixed: many things
may occur and people should explore the various
possibilities and then seek to realize those that
seem most desirable. (Dibsbury, Jr. & Crider,
1979, p. 173)

Technological Forecasting is the forecasting of

 

future technical developments. The forecaster places
emphasis on how soon various technologies will be pos-
sible and what characteristics they may have (Dibsbury,
Jr. & Crider, 1979, p. 178).

Delimitations

 

This study is limited to public community and
junior colleges in the United States that were listed
in the 1979 Community, Junior and Technical College
Directory.

Organization of the Study

 

Chapter I includes the background and need for
the study, the statement of the problem, purpose of the
study, questions to be answered, significance of the
study, definition of terms, and the delimitations of
the study.

Chapter II contains a review of the literature
in the field of futuring.

Chapter III contains the methodology of the
study. In it the process of developing the question-

naire is described; the selection of the colleges to

 

13
which it was sent; and the methods for analyzing the
data received.
Chapter IV is the presentation of the data.
Chapter V presents the discussion and results, the out-
comes of the study, and certain logical conclusions.
Chapter VI presents the summary, conclusions, and

recommendations.

 

CHAPTER II

THE COMPONENTS OF FUTURIZING AND
A SEARCH OF THE LITERATURE

Many community and junior college policy makers,
administrators, and educators have just gone through a
period beginning about the middle 19603 and continuing
through the mid-703 when they were called upon to pro-
vide effective long-range planning for their institu-
tions. Rarig in a nationwide study of community and
junior colleges, identified long-range planning as "the
most important single administrative tool that can aid
in providing vitality and direction to community and
junior colleges of the future" (1965, p. 127). In a
similar study, Landsburg concluded that "an adaptive
stance" was needed by community and junior college
policy makers and this could be accomplished "with or
without long-range planning" (1975, p. 120).

The apparent difference in these conclusions
represents frustrations heard by this researcher from
community and junior college policy makers and educa-
tors with the apparent ineffectiveness of the results
of long-range planning. What appears to be absent from

long-range planning was a certain perspective. Boyer

14

15

identifies that perspective as the direction futuring
gives to planning:

It is not new to treat educational institutions as

instruments of social planning. . . . It is new to

treat education as a process which teaches people

to design preferred futures and to learn to under-

take their realization. (1975, p. 391)
More specifically, the futuristic perspective addresses
one of the central purposes of managers, namely, to
plan. Brodzinski, commenting on the futuristic perspec-
tive, observes.that "it proposes alternative ways to
approach traditional managerial tasks and suggests some
expansion of the concept of management, particularly as
it relates to planning" (1979, p. 21).

It is the purpose of this chapter to search the

existing literature in an attempt to answer the question,

What are the components of futuring?

Definition of futuring

 

The World Future Society Catalog (1980, p. 55)
does not refer to the term "futuring," but instead uses
the terms "futuristics" and "futurology." The former it
describes as "the field of study that deals with pos-
sible future developments." The latter is described as
"the study of the future." The World Future Society
Catalog acknowledges that some futurists object to the
term "futurology" on the ground that it implies the
study of a science, when in fact one cannot study what

does not exist. Polak and Toffler acknowledged that

16
the future is not known, say as the study of biology is
known, but that every advance in the knowledge of science is
the result of the "redrawing of the boundaries of the
unknown," that is to say, that which cannot be grasped
by the human mind cannot be known. More precisely,
"the deliberations of the man of thought center about
the future, about that which at present is not, but is
yet to come" (Polak, 1972, p. 286).

Shane defines futuring as "a new discipline con-
cerned with sharpening the data and improving the pro—
cesses on which policy decisions are made in various
fields of human endeavor, such as business, government,
or education" (1973, p. 1).

Pulliam and Bowman (1976, p. 3) considered
futurism to be a "science" and described it as centering
upon the interrelationships of human activities, the
wide range of possible alternatives for human action and
the opportunity for consciously altering or inventing
the future. Newman (1973, p. 18) described futurism as
"a way of trying to feel at home in the present."

This researcher found that none of the defini—
tions were completely adequate. However, it can be
deduced that futuring is an action-oriented activity
with the future as a province which can be known, under-
stood and planned. The approach is applicable to busi-

ness, government, and education, and centers upon

17

interrelationships and a wide range of human activity.
Futurism's perspective is not that of a single dominat-
ing future but a wide possibility of alternative
futures. Futurism is both interventionist and inven-
tive.
The mission

It is appropriate to suggest that futurism has
purpose or mission. That is to say, that futuring is
the task assigned or undertaken to illuminate, antici-
pate, and investigate trends and directions brought
about by societal, economical, technological, and poli-
tical forces, that will yield a wide range of alterna-
tive futures.

Enzer further explicates the mission of futur-
ing as: p\

l. The forecast of a future situation, regard-
less of methodology of technique

2. Interdisciplinary, recognizing the complex
interaction of social system components

3. Systematic, attempting to avoid overlooking
interacting developments or trends

4. Judgmental, as hard, predicated data may
not be available to forecast a future event

5. Alternatives, stressing range of decisions
and planning choices (1972, pp. 30-51)

The idea that futurism has a mission also allows

18
for the assumption that it has Operational bases. Dror
identified these as "something ought to be known about
the future, . . . something can be known about the
future, . . . and futuring as a specific endeavor is a
preferable frame for producing knowledge about the
future" (1975, p. 147).

Eckstein in discussing change, focuses on two
points which are essential to the futures' mission» One
deals with the external environment and the other deals
with the inner-man's values. Specifically,

. . . ideas about change have always seemed to
divide men in two polarizing groups. Some believe
that in order to change, man must change his outer
reality--society. Others say that regardless of
how one changes the culture, the external world of
man, unless one can make change reach the inner
man one will not succeed. (1974, p. 13)

Futuring shies away from the use of prediction
£13 a way of presenting futures, but it accepts forecast-
.ing as an essential mode in the accomplishment of a sim-
.ilar task. Welch and Watson (1979, p. 2) asserted that
"the purpose of futures research is not to predict, but
‘to understand the range of options and how they may be
éaffected by the interaction of choice and chance." Bell
(1976, p. 60) brings further clarity to the situation
‘when he observes, "What should be stressed however, in
?knowing past facts and present options is not what makes

action effective. It is accurately knowing future fore-

casts." Ferkiss added,

l9

Futurists are concerned with setting forth possible
alternative futures and assessing the probabilities
of their coming into existence. Futurists are less
interested in trying to predict the course of par-
ticular sets of events than in foreseeing the broad
currents which will influence future history.
(1977, p. 18)

The objectives

Futurism has many objectives. This researcher
was concerned with objectives which have application in
the context of.higher education and specifically at the
level of the community and junior college. There was a
- paucity of information at this level, but there was.
enough of a general nature to permit application to the
community and junior college.

The World Future Society (1978, p. 25) identi-
fied a central objective of futurism as follows: "By
studying the future, futurists hope to anticipate cul-
‘tural trends and help people prepare for them." It
‘Nould seem natural that this kind of assistance would be
(of invaluable help to educators and administrators who
Iplan for the well being of community and junior colleges.
ILearning how to recognize trends and value changes could
Iprovide for better policy development, fiscal manage-
Inent and control, program offerings, and service to the
1ccmmunity.

The objective may be clarified even more by the

recognition that much of planning, even though somewhat

successful, has been more intuitive-iflun1knowledge-based.

20
Planning in community and junior colleges more often
than not, has been governed by the budget, student
enrollment, and other procedures and policies which do
not take into account a wide range of human activities
and interrelationships which produce change (The Ameri-
can Association of State Colleges and Universities,
1978, pp. vi, viii).

Interrelationship is a central concept in
futurism. Pulliam and Bowman addressed this concept in
this manner: "Futurism must center upon interrelation-
ships of human activities, the wide range of possible
alternatives for consciously altering or inventing the
future" (1976, p. 3). Along with the concept of inter-
relationships are the concepts of intervention and
invention. These concepts provide the community col—
1ege educator and administrator with responses to ques—
‘tions of change and policy development. This is a
ciistinct advantage for one who has not only the oppor-
‘tunity to prepare and mold changes brought about by
systematic forethought, and is beyond merely having to
(adapt to changed circumstances (Cooper, 1974, p. 122).

Another objective of futurism is its emphasis
on consequences. An example is in place. During the
19603 community and junior college facilities could
hardly keep pace with student demand. This was a period

of generally rising enrollments. A similar situation

21

existed for four-year colleges and universities. Now
in the 803, decreasing enrollments are forcing the
closure of some facilities once used for educational
purposes, or at least these facilities are used for
other purposes other than what they were originally
intended. During the hectic building period of facil-
ities in the 19603 it appeared that the planners and
builders gave little or no thought to facility needs in
the 803. Futurism is concerned about today's actions
before they become tomorrow's reality (Pulliam and
Bowman, 1976, p. 7).
Stages of futurism

It is fairly well established that futurism
finds its wellspring in the utopian tradition of Western
culture and in its science fiction. Ferkiss (1977, pp.
6-8) goes back to Plato's Republic, the utopia of St.
‘Thomas Moore, the Christian's belief in the imminence
<of the second coming of Christ, as precursors to the
there modern secularistic forms of Comptian industrial-
ism, Marxian socialism, or Post-Industrial Society to
trace the normative and deterministic elements which
Hake futurism possible.

The major substantive difference that distin-
guishes the modern version from the older, religious
forms is that the causal force that redeems mankind
is not a new outpouring of the grace of God but the

benificent influence of science and technology.
Ferkiss, 1977, p. 7)

22

In a similar manner, science fiction has con-
tributed a number of important ingredients to futurism.
These are as follows: (1) "a forum in which the human
impact of projected developments can be juxtaposed in a
picture of the future as a whole," and (2) an entree
into the popular imagination.

Change has been made easier because it can be
experienced vicariously through the imagination and
television. Buck Rogers and Flash Gordon were national
heroes long before Neil Armstrong.‘

As noted earlier, futurism owes much of its
existence to the belief that scientific and technologi-
cal developments are relatively amenable to forecasting
or prediction and can serve as a basis for social
<:hange. It is not surprising, then, that technological
:forecasting would give rise to much of the present vigor
.in futurism.

Cornish (1980, pp. 83-84) and Ferkiss (1977,
pp. 9-10) established the beginnings of organized
:research from 1944, when the Commanding General of the
(J. S. Army, H. H. Arnold, commissioned a study toward
IIew horizons. The study was on the technological cap-
abilities of the United States. It was an effort to
forecast what the U. S. military might be capable of
accomplishing in the future. However, it was not until

about 1965 when the Academy of Arts and Sciences

23
commissioned the Study of the Year 2000 under David
Bell, while at the same time "an obscure journalist
named Edward Cornish," founded an organization and pub—
lished a bulletin which eventually became the Futurist.

Shane has identified four phases of futuring
activity. Phase I is characterized by linear planning,
and is generally thought to be the period up to the mid-
19603. Data to provide linear planning would include
production data, birthrates and/or deathrates, depending
on the requirements of the project at hand. Projections
were made in such a manner that given lag time between
development, implementation, and completion, the best
that could be hoped for was that the plans would fit.
.Plans did not always fit (1973, p. 8).

Phase II is identified as beginning about 1965
cor 1966 and coming to a close about 1972. The distin-
§;uishing characterisitc of this phase was a shift from
ILinear planning, even though it was not abandoned, to
Ein exploration of what an organization, agency, or
SJroup intended the future to be. This was what came to
loe known as "alternative futures," for it was realized
‘that there was not a single "inevitable" future but an
infinite number of possible futures (Shane, 1973, pp.
8-9).

It was just a matter of time after the concept

of alternative futures was understood, that the concept

24
of cross-impact analyses would be introduced. Cross-
impact analysis was identified with phase III of futur-
ism.’ In terms of time, it was the period of the early
19703. The cross-impact concept recognized interrela-
tionships between and among disciplines and between and
among a wide range of human activities. For example,
during the early 19703, studies were done to show what
the crossimpact would be of so-called "smart pills on
educational futures" (Shane, 1973, p. 9).

In quick succession came phase IV. The time
period was about 1975. It should be borne in mind that
these phases were not clear—cut or arbitrary. There
was much overlapping. Shane referred to phase III as a
"sophisticated" version of phase II. Nevertheless, as
in the other phases, the chief concept of phase IV was
.intervention. The question was not whether man should
Ilse his time, energy, and money to create desirable
:Eutures, but how should it be done (Shane, 1973, p. 10).

The four phases of futurism may be summed up as
:Eollows: phase I was characterized by linear planning
iand projections, and included all thought and practice
<on futurism up to the 19603. From about 1965 through
1972, phase II, characterized by the concept of alterna-
tive futures, predominated. In rapid succession came

phases III and IV. The former was characterized by the

25
concept of cross-impact analyses and the latter by the
concept of intervention.

Theory and supportive research

Futuristics and planning are firmly grounded in
systems theory. Cleland and King defined a system as
"an organized or complex whole; an assemblage or com-
bination of things or parts forming a complex or whole"
(1968, p. 10). This definition recognized that a system
is made up of segments, which pursue their own goals to
the extent that the overall goals of the system can be
achieved. Such a perspective allows for viewing the
system as a whole and for an understanding of the inter-
relationships between the segments (Cleland and King,
1968, p. 11).

White and Tauber defined a system as "a set of
interacting elements"; and observed that systems are
"natural or man-made." Man-made systems operate within
:such parameters as "cost, efficiency, size, or reliabil-
.ity . . . derived from externally imposed value systems,
such as economic, social or even political" (1969, p.
‘4).

Arends and Arends working with a similar defini-
‘tion, described "schools as complex social systems."
'This means that "people in schools, like the components

in any system, interact in fairly regularized and pre-

dictable ways" (1977, pp. 26-27).

26

Johns and Morphet identified two characteristics
of systems as "organizational equilibrium" and "entro-
phy." On the one hand, the first characteristic pro-
vides that the system has a tendency to achieve a
balance among the many forces or factors Operating upon
the system and within it. On the other hand, the second
characteristic provides that in (open systems death is
combated by the exchange of matter and energy within the
environment, while in closed systems, death ensues
because of the system's inability to exchange matter or
energy (1975, p. 35).

Immigart and Pilecki identified other elements
of social systems. These are as follows: systems exist
in time and space, have boundaries, environment, var-
iables and parameters, subsystems and suprasystems
(1973, pp. 34-39).

On the basis of the characteristics stated
above, Johns and Morphet asserted that the school is an
open, living, social system (1975, p. 37). The charac—
terization of the school as a living, social system,
permits application to colleges and universities, of
which community and junior colleges are a part.

In addition to establishing that community and
junior colleges are living social systems, a more
important essential connector was application of futur-

istics to living social systems. Harmon (1976, pp.

27
10-14) observed that the different methods of futuristic
research were based essentially on various combinations
of six principles that characterize complex, highly
interconnected social systems. The principles are as
follows: continuity, self-consistency, similarities
among social systems, cause-effect relationships, hol-
istic trending, and goal seeking.

Futuristic theorists and researchers are in gen-
eral agreement on the characteristics of social systems
and the application of futuristic methods to the man-
agement of social systems. There is also general agree-
ment that one dominant behavior of social systems is
change. Drucker (1968, pp. 7-10) observed four condi—
tions in our time which produce change. They are as
follows: (1) genuinely new technologies; (2) changes
in the world's economy, changing it from a local or
national economy to what Drucker described as a "global
shopping center"; (3) a new socialization and political
organization in which all major tasks were becoming
institutionalized so that society was becoming dominated
by a web of overlapping, interdependent, special-purpose
organizations; and (4) access to knowledge rather than
raw materials and transportation.

Harmon (1976, pp. 2—3) has added five other
observations to those of Drucker:

l. The threat from industrialized civilization

 

28
to the sufficiency of fossil fuels, minerals, natural
fresh water; or arable land and inhabitable space; of
the waste absorbing capacity of the environment, and
of the resilence of the planet's life-support systems.

2. Great masses of people are no longer satis-
fied with the political and economic status quo.

3. Disillusionment with the idea of large
masses of people that ever-increasing material growth
and expanding technology and industrialization would
overcome world poverty and help mankind to achieve a
more meaningful existence.

4. The new power of third-world nations as a
moral force; an influence on world economy; and as an
expression of the discontented poor.

5. The emergence of a new emphasis on intui-
tive and spiritual experience.

Change produces change. Massive amounts of
unplanned change creates "future shock," defined as "the
shattering stress and disorientation that we induce in
individuals by subjecting them to too much change in too
little time" (Toffler, 1971, p. 2).

Futurists accept change as an ingredient in
social systems, but they would prefer to plan for it
rather than to see it as inevitable and do nothing
about it. Even so, Ogburn suggested that

When material conditions change, changes are occa-
sioned in the adaptive culture. But these changes

29

in the adaptive culture do not sychronize exactly

with changes in the material culture. There is a

lag which may last for varying lengths of time,

sometimes indeed for many years. (1973, p. 478)
Ogburn's thesis is,

The unchanged adaptive culture was more harmon-

iously related to the old than to the new material

conditions and that a new adaptive culture will

be better suited to the new material conditions

than was the old adaptive culture. (1973, p. 480)
There is also the suggestion that the culture cannot
sustain materialistic invention which comes too fast or
too rapidly for social development.

It is not to be construed that all futuristic
theorists and researchers are agreed on the process or
processes for planned change. In general, futurists are
divided into two groups, "extrapolinationists," some-
times referred to as extrapolationists, and "utopians."
On the one hand the former develops projections on the
basis of trends, values, and directions which are
already known and established to forecast possible
futures. On the other hand, utopians maintain that
technology can be controlled, and the affluence made
possible by cybernation and automation enables mankind
to determine his own goals and the priorities needed to
attain them (Hoffman, 1974, p. 4). It may not be of
particular importance for community and junior college

educators to be identified as extrapolationists or

utopians. What is important is for them to be able to

30
read the signs of change and plan for accommodation or
adjustment as best fits their particular college or
community needs.

Marien and Ziegler (1972, pp. 5-6) described
three possible stances of planners and policy devel-
opers. They are as follows:

1. Preventive, the most prevalent form in edu-
cation. It is characterized by crisis planning; lack
of relationships to the whole; lack of knowledge about
unintended consequences; and lack of knowledge of inter-
acting factors. In viewing the future from a preventive
stance, it is viewed as an extrapolation of the past.

2. Adaptive, the forecast is thought to be
overwhelming and inescapable, that action is taken in
the present to adapt to coming conditions, because pre-
ventive intervention is neither possible nor desirable.

3. Inventive, the key characteristic is the
perception that the future is not predetermined. It is
not an extrapolation of the past. It is an array of
possible futures. Another characteristic is the future
as the province of intentional action, choice, and
invention.

While futurists are aware of the constancy of
change in living social systems, they are deeply con-
cerned about the disorientation and stress brought on
by changes which come too quickly in the material cul-

ture.

31

Differences between conventional
and futuristic planning

Shane makes five important differences between
conventional planning and futuristic planning. They
are as follows:

1. Futures planning takes into consideration
the plannerwsexamined values. Linear projections are
deemphasized, while alternative solutions, relation-
ships, cross—impacts, and unintended consequences are
emphasized.

2. Good ideas are offered a better chance of
survival in futuristic planning than in conventional
planning because of its emphasis on alternative futures.

3. Conventional planning tends to be utopian,
an improvement of the present. Futuristic planning
anticipates genuinely different futures.

4. Conventional planning emphasizes statisti-
cal analyses and projections per se, as opposed to the
considerations of unexpected developments and their
consequences.

5. Futures planning emphasizes invention of
probable futures as opposed to the reform of the past
or an extension of the present (1973, p. 2).

Scanlon added another six principles which may
be of particular assistance to community and junior
college administrators and policy developers. These

six principles are as follows:

32

1. Any plan which provides for future needs
must be constantly revised and verified because of the
sometimes sudden shifts in trends.

2. The wise planner or administrator always
establishes a division between immediate problems and
those which will become more pressing as time goes on.

3. It is of vital importance to establish the
time factor between short-range and long-range planning
goals. Predictive accuracy is greater in the former.
The outer time limit for the latter should not generally
exceed five years. As a rule of thumb, some institu-
tions divert 25 percent of their resources to long—range
endeavors and 75 percent toward activities of more imme-
diate concerns.

4. An important factor in planning is goal
focus. Who does what, when, and in what order is very
important.

5. A close fit should exist between organiza-
tional planning and policy.

6. Considerable study should be given to the
need of time for transition (1975, pp. 84-86).

Brodzinski, commenting on this approach,
observed that "it proposes alternative ways to approach
managerial tasks and suggests some expansion of the
concept of management, particularly as it relates to

planning" (1979, p. 21).

33
12213

This researcher will not attempt to present an
exhaustive list of tools used by futurists; rather, an
attempt will be made to describe those tools which
appeared to this researcher to be more widely used.
They are as follows: human reasoning power; Delphi
technique; trend extrapolation; cross-impact analyses;
relevance trees; images and scenarios.

Human reasoning

 

It appears that by far the most valuable tool
which futurists have at their disposal is human reason-
ing power. This is more so when futurists eschew
the practice of conventional reasoning and are concerned
with innovation, speculation, probing system breaks and
counterintuitive conclusions and concepts.

In this connection, an idea becomes a powerful
tool which is not always readily recognized. Cornish
(1980, p. 100) observed that ideas "represent an
extremely valuable resource and, from an economic stand-
point, are often more important than raw materials,
industrial plants, and manpower when it comes to earn-
ing money."

Our limitations are not within the material
resources at our disposal. "Our major constraints on
human achievement are not physical but conceptual"

(Cornish, 1980), p. 101). What is desirable is

34
possible, if people can work together and develop a con-
sensus about it.

Delphi technique

 

Gordon (1972, p. 169) described the Delphi tech-
nique as "a method of seeking a group consensus which
avoids some of the problems of face-to-face confronta-
tion." Delphi preserves anonymity at two levels. On
the one hand, participants do not know the other partic-
ipants who are involved in the Delphi exercise. On the
other hand, opinions of participants are passed through
an intermediary (Gordon, 1972, pp. 169-71). Lonsdale
(1971), pp. 23-24) added two other conditions of Delphi.
There are "conveyance of forecasts" and "protection or
defense of the minority position."

The Delphi technique among the most widely
used tools and was probably open to " improper affilia-
tions" (Linstone, 1975, p. 584). In spite of this,
Martino (1972, p. 32) concluded that the product of
Delphi was superior to results obtained by conventional
methods. Specifically, the results can be described
quantitatively, and the user of Delphi has a greater
understanding of what is going on. Dalkey's work sug-
gested that with a panel no larger than fifteen, con-
sisting of a cross section of experts in a given field,
it was highly unlikely that another equally expert panel

would produce a radically different median (1969, pp.

35
73-78). In Spite of very strong evidence in support of
the use of Delphi as a tool in futuristics, Weaver
(1972, pp. 32-34) observed that there were weaknesses.
"Consensus alone was not a sufficient condition for
arguing that.a.f0recast was plausible and convincing.
It was not even a necessary condition." What Delphi
lacks was "explanatory quality." Another weakness
Weaver observed was a lack of discrimination between
Delphi forecasts which were the product of hope and
thOse that were probable. He continued, that to be able
to discriminate was important because hope and desir-
ability interfered with and to a considerable extent
influenced judgments about future events.

A further observation by Weaver was that "in
the absence of actually knowing in detail what the
future would be, one could either guess or judge." He
concluded that at this time Delphi lacked the discrim-
ination to determine if a forecast was the result of
guessing or judgment. In spite of these weaknesses,
Weaver concluded that Delphi in combination "with other
tools was a very potent device for teaching people to
think about the future of education, in much more com—
plex ways than they ordinarily would" (1972, pp. 32-34).
Trend evaluation

This technique requires an analysis of past and

present trends in order to predict future trends.

36
Central to trend extrapolation is the concept of con-
tinuity. Martino (1973, p. 107) explained that
. . . if in some area of technology, there has been
continuous progression of technical approaches,
each one surpassing the limitations of the previous
one, it is not unreasonable to expect the rate of
innovation to continue. To argue the contrary, in
fact, is to say that the present is a point of dis-
continuity.
That is to say, that future trends will follow past
conditions.
Pulliam and Bowman (1976, p. 11) observed that
the major problem with trend extrapolation was the
selection of parameters. They suggested that parameters

should meet at least four criteria:

1. Parameters should be capable of quantifica-

tion

2. Parameters should provide sufficient histor-
ical data

3. Regularity of parameter patterns should be
established.

4. Determination should be made about past
trends and interrelationships between past and present
parameters

In spite of some problems connected with trend
extrapolation, Brown (1974, p. 278) cautioned that with
care, whether used by itself or in combination with
other tools, it was useful to the educator in the solu-

tion of problems dealing "with group behavior,

37
personnel flow, material availability, or financial
resources."
Cross-impact analyses

Cross-impact analyses is a systematic way of
examining the interaction among a set of activities or
forecasts. In the examination one must determine how
activities affect each other. Do they "enhance or
diminish," "advance or delay," "necessitate or obviate"?
This is referred to as the "mode" of the interaction.
The "force" of the interaction must also be determined;‘
for example, is it "weak or strong." In addition, the
"time lag" must be determined in an effort to know if
the cross impact is “immediate" or "distant," and
whether the influence dies out after a period of time
(Martino, 1973, pp. 271-72). Another factor which
Hudspeth (1974, pp. .115-16) introduced was "probability
of occurrence." This was of particular importance to
long-range planners and policy makers, for the proba-
bility of an event occurring could significantly alter
a future state.

It appeared clear that cross-impact analysis
was a useful tool in data analyses and the manipulation
of event relationship. The application of the computer
to this technique makes it that much more useful.
Relevance trees

McGrath (1974, p. 73) described a relevance tree

38
as "a commonly used method of normative forecasting
that may be likened to a pathway to the future. The
focus is how to reach a predetermined goal or avoid an
undesirable one by directing a sequence or a hierarchy
of events in the pathways to the future." Other char-
acteristics of relevance trees are: branches extending
downward from a mode must be a closed set of events;
branches extending downward must be mutually exclusive;
the tree must be viewed as a set of goals and subgoals;
and the process works backwards from a set of goals to
the present situation.

Martino (1972, pp. 290-92) observed that the
relevance tree was most commonly used for description
rather than normative processes and was useful in list-
ing alternative problems as well as alternative solu-
tions. Jantsch (1972, pp. 87-89) considered relevance
trees "the only systematic approach in use linking the
entire range of levels," as well as "fully applicable
to technological forecasting within a range of 10-15
years."

Images

Futurists find that images of the future are
very essential to the creation of alternative futures.
Polak (1976, p. 11) described "images of the future"

as

. . . those condensed and crystalized expectations
prevailing among peoples in certain periods and

39
developed in systematic projections toward the
future. They may be of a transcendental--religious
character, pertaining mainly to the end of time or
the last things, or they may concern themselves
mainly with social humanitarian ideals for the good
of society on earth.

Havinghurst (1973, p. 3) expressed essentially
a similar idea when he described images as "more or less
disciplined speculations or expectations that express
my hopes and fears about the future." To be useful,
images must possess certain characteristics. An essen-
tial one is the "awareness of ideal values" (Polak,
1975, p. 13). Essentially, the value is but a guide-to
that future which constantly reflects and reinforces
itself. Cornish (1980, pp. 101-2) described images of
the future as "ideas about the future world," and
explained that they "are the blueprints that we use in
constructing our lives, and the blueprints may be more
important than the materials we work with in determin-
ing our success and happiness."

Images of the future must possess certain char-
acteristics. Bundy (1976, p. 27) made this observation:
" . . for an image of the future to have some real
value, it must appear capable of being lived, and not
merely desired—~not only by the individuals who believe
in it but by the social body as a whole."

The image of the future may be expressed in a

single "image or metaphor" or because of the richness of

40
reality may be expressed in "complementary metaphors"
or images. For example, consider the various images
of man: man as an "economic animal"; "man as a physio-
logical motivated mechanism"' "man as a psychological
conditioned animal"; "man as a free being': or "man as
a transcendental being" (Harmon, 1976, pp. 89-90).
Images are essentially mythological in content,
but they are not wishful thinking. They must find root
in the consciousness or experience of a people or insti-
tution and they must express hOpe. Hope is an emotion,
a positive attitude which expresses itself in the belief
of what the future will be like. An image resides not
in the past or the present. Its domain is the future,
from where it beckons to become a reality. To become
a reality an image must have a reasonable hope of ful-
fillment (Green, 1976, pp. 40-42).
Scenario
The scenario is a much-used tool in the fore—
casting of alternative futures and is usually a study of
possible futures. Jantsch (1969, p. 180) described the
term scenario writing as
. . . a technique which attempts to set up a logi-
cal sequence of events in order to show how, start~
ing from the present or any given situation, a
future step might evolve, step by step. The pur-
pose is not to predict the future, but systemati-
cally to explore branching points dependent on

critical choices.

The characteristics of scenario writing are:

41
"plausibility," "self-consistency," "inclusion of all
critical relevant factors," and "similarity to other
scenarios in form and scope" (Vanston, Jr., Feisher,
Lopriato, & Poston, Jr., 1977, pp. 159~62).

Sage and Chobot (1974, p. 163) suggested that
the generation of a scenario places a great deal of
emphasis on the expertise, reputation, and creditabil-
ity of the individual researcher or group generating
the scenario, than on the methods of data manipulation
employed. Abt, Foster, and Rea (1973, p. 192) suggested
other techniques for generating scenarios. They are
as follows: "consensus techniques, iteration through
synopsis and cross-impact matrices."

The Delphi technique would and could meet the
requirement of consensus techniques and discussion has
already been forwarded on cross-impact analyses. Left
for some clarification is iteration through synopsis.
Basically this method is designed to increase consis-
tency among disciplines as they relate to each other in
scenario development.

Summagy

The purpose of this chapter was to search the
literature to determine what were the components of
futuring. In the process, futuring was defined as the
-study of the future--the future of individuals, busi-

ness and industry, government or education.

42

Futuring has purpose or mission, which is to
investigate trends and trend values brought about by
change. The mission was predicated on the assumption
that something ought to be known about the future and
that futuring is a legitimate frame of reference for
investigation.

The objectives of futurism are as follows:

1. To study trends and trend values and help
people and managers of business and industry, govern-
ment, or education to prepare for them.

2. To approach futuring in a holistic manner,
that is, to be concerned with a wide range of interrela-
tionships

3. To be aware that there is not one future
but many futures and that intervention and invention
are tools used in the development of alternative
futures

4. Futuring is concerned with today's actions
because they are a mirror of tomorrow's consequences.

Futuring can be traced back to the utopian tra-
dition of Western culture. It can be shown that its
impetus derives from such elements as Plato's Republic,
the Utopia of St. Thomas Moore, the Christians' belief
in the imminence of the second coming of Christ, and in
more modern times, Comptian industrialsm, Marxian

socialism, or Post-Industrial Society.

43

Science fiction provided important ingredients
for the growth and development of futuring. It caught
the popular imagination, and the populace experienced
vicariously what was possible in the future before it
actually occurred.

Futurism in the United States developed in
stages. A significant beginning was the commissioning
of the Study Toward New Beginnings, by the U. S. Com-
manding General, H. H. Arnold in 1944. In 1965 the
United States Academy of Arts and Sciences commissioned
the study of the year 2000 and Edward Cornish founded
what later became the Futurist in 1966.

Shane identified four stages in the development
of futurism. These were as follows: phase I, linear
planning, characterized by the use of various data ele-
ments, and was represented as the period up to the mid-
19603; phase II, alternative futures, characterized by
a shift from linear planning to the concept of an infi-
nite number of futures, covered a period from about 1966
to 1972; phase III was the period extending from 1972
to 1975 and was identified with cross-impact analyses
or interrelationships; phase IV was the period extending
from 1975 onward, and its chief contribution was inter-
vention.

Futurism and planning are grounded in systems

theory. Schools and colleges were shown to be living

44
social systems which possessed the characteristics of
organizational equilibrium, entropy and other character-
istics common to living social systems.

Futurists may be identified as extrapolation-
ists or as utopists, but they are in general agreement
in proposing planned change as a way of managing change
in living social systems. They recognize various
responses to planned change, such as "preventive,"
"adaptive," and "inventive." The inventive response to
change was proposed by futurists as the method of manag-'
ing planned change by educators or policy developers.

There are differences between conventional plan-
ning and futuristic planning. They are as follows:

1. Conventional planning emphasizes linear pro-
jections, while futuristic planning emphasizes alterna-
tive solutions, relationships, cross-impacts, and unin-
tended consequences.

2. Good ideas have a better survival rate in
futuristic planning than in conventional planning
because of the former's emphasis on alternative solu-
tions.

3. Conventional planning tends to anticipate
the future as an improvement of the past. Futuristic
planning envisions alternative futures.

4. Conventional planning focuses on statistical

analyses and projections per se, as opposed to

45
invention, unexpected consequences and their develop-
ments.

Some of the tools of futurism are as follows:
human reasoning, the Delphi technique, trend extrapola-
tion, cross-impact analyses, relevance trees, images,
and the scenario. This is by no means an exhaustive
list, but rather a sample of the tools very much in use

by many futurists.

CHAPTER I I I
METHODOLOGY

As stated in chapter I, the purpose of this
study was (1) to examine the extent to which community
and junior college administrators were engaged in futur-
ing, (2) to identify the extent of present practice,
and (3) to describe some of the best elements and prac-
tices which are available.

This chapter presents a description of the popu-
lation and the sampling procedures used in the study;
the design and testing of the research instrument; the
procedures used in collecting the data; the methods used
in analyzing the collected data; and the methods used

in the presentation of the data.

Research Design
In order to accomplish the purpose of this
study, it was necessary to conduct a thorough review of
the literature as it related to the problem as stated
in chapter I. This led to the identification of four
elements which are essential to futuring and to the
construction of a questionnaire. The four elements

are as follows:

46

47

l. The impact social trends are expected to
have on community and junior colleges over the next
decade

2. Alternative images of community and junior
colleges, their feasibility and desirability

3. Present engagement in futuring practices
and the importance given to them

4. Present and 1985 goal priorities

The first element, social trends, consisted of
eighteen statements. Community college administrators
were asked to rate on a Likert scale from "no impact at
all (1)" to "very major impact (5)," the expected impact
during the next decade on the community college. (These
eighteen statements are listed in appendix A.

The second element consisted of six alternative
images of the community college. Each alternative image
required two responses, one addressed to its feasibility
and the other addressed to its desirability. Each of
the two responses to each alternative image was rated on
separate Likert scales from "not at all feasible (1)" to
"very feasible (5)." (The alternative images are pre-
sented in appendix A.

The third element of the questionnaire was aimed
at futuring processes which were used by community col-
1ege administrators. These five futuring processes

included (1) the identification of social and community

48
trends which will have an impact on college development,
(2) identification of alternative images of the future
of the college, (3) determination of major college
strengths and areas for improvement, (4) the establish-
ment of long-term action priorities, and (5) writing
of "scenarios" or stories which describe how the col-
lege will take action on priorities over time.

Community college administrators were asked to
check "yes" or "no" beside each futuring activity in
which the college was engaged. Community college admin-
istrators were also asked, "How important do you feel it
is to do so?" and to rate each response on a Likert
scale rated from "not at all (1)" to "very important
(5)." (This material is presented in appendix A.

The fourth element of the questionnaire dealt
with institutional goal priorities. Nineteen such goals
were identified. Community and junior college adminis-
trators were asked to rate each goal on its priority to
the college "at the present time," and "What priority
do you feel this goal will have in 1985?" Each goal was
rated on a Likert scale from "Low priority (1)" to "Top
priority (5)," for the "present time" and for "1985."

These nineteen goals are presented in appendix A.

49

The Sample and Sampling Procedures

With the assistance of HW' adviser and Dr.
Gundar Myran, a questionnaire was constructed. It was
sent to a panel (see appendix B) of experts to be vali-
dated. When it was returned” this researcher, with the
assistance of his advisor, revised the questionnaire
and mailed it to a national sample of 303 community and
junior colleges selected from the 1979 Community, Junior
and Technical College Directory. In selecting the
sample, the first college was drawn randomly, then a
systematic selection was made from all the colleges
represented in the continental United States. The
result was that each of the ten regions cited in United
States Department of HealtthEducation and Welfare
Regional Boundaries and Headquarters publication was
represented. The composition of the regions are dif-
ferent from those used by Bushnell and Zagaus (1972,

p. 163) and Landsburg (1975, p. 57). (A listing of the
regions is given in appendix C).

The 1979 Community, Junior and Technical Col-
lege Directory was also used to secure the names of the
chief administrative officer of each college within the
sample. The chief administrative officers bore titles
such as, President, Dean, Provost, Chief Administrator,
College Director, Chancellor, and Superintendent. The

purpose of identifying the chief administrators was to

50
request their participation in the study by filling out
the questionnaire and returning it.

In an effort to secure the greatest possible
return of completed questionnaires, five steps were
taken as follows:

1. Dr. Gundar Myran, President of Washtenaw
Community College, and President of the Combase Consor-
tium, which is made up of about twenty-five community
colleges, secured the sponsorship of‘thiS StUdY by that
organization. He then wrote a letter on Washtenaw
Community College stationery in support of the study,
as well as to encourage his colleagues, the chief admin-
istrators, to participate in the study by filling out
the questionnaire and returning it. (See appendix
D.

2. On November 3, 1979, the secretary of each
chief administrative officer in the sample was mailed a
letter which briefly explained the nature of the study
and asked for assistance in getting the questionnaire
before the chief administrator and mailing it back when
it was completed. One secretary responded that the
researcher "was a wise man, politically astute." (See
appendix D.

3. The questionnaire was mailed to each chief
administrator in the sample. Enclosed with the ques-

tionnaire was a letter by Dr. Gundar Myran which briefly

51
explained the nature of the study and related futuring
to long-range planning. Included also was a stamped
addressed envelope for the return of the completed
questionnaire. Chief administrators were urged to par-
ticipate in the study as the findings could be useful
to them in policy development and planning. Of the 303
questionnaires which were sent out, no responses were
received which questioned the value of the study or were
.critical of it in any manner.

4. A follow—up letter dated January 16, 1980
was mailed to the chief administrators who had been
sent the questionnaire. Included with this letter was
a return stamped addressed envelope. The letter
reminded the chief administrators about the nature of
the study, reported on the responses to the question-
naire, and encouraged those administrators who had not
already completed the questionnaire and returned it, to
do so in order for the validity of the study to be
assured. (See appendix D.) The first, second,
third, and fourth steps accounted for 83 percent, or
194 of the questionnaires returned.

5. A second follow-up letter dated February 12,
‘ 1980, stressed that the researcher and Dr. Gundar Myran
desired "to have a maximum response from the colleges
we had selected for our sample," and "we are taking the

liberty of sending this one last reminder." We

52
professed understanding, "if you are too busy to respond."

(See appendix D.) This letter resulted in
12 percent, or twenty—seven of the completed question-
naires returned. This brought the complete return to

221, or approximately 73 percent of the sample.

Methods of Data Analysis

 

,The questionnaires were coded and the data were
punched on computer cards. A Sigma 6 computer was used
to analyze the data. The computer was programmed to
provide simple desriptive statistics as well as categor-
ical scaling. The categorical scales were transformed
into interval scales for ease of comparison among regions
and school sizes. (Interval scales are listed in appen-
dix E and colleges grouped according to size in appendix F.)

Discriminant analysis was used to determine if
the variables acted in such a manner as to separate the
regions into groups on the basis of social trends,
future images, futuring processes, present goal priori-
ties, and priorities for 1985, as well as on the basis
of whether community and junior colleges were grouped
as small, medium, and large.

Chi-square was used to determine if there was
significant difference among community and junior col—
lege administrators among the regions in their responses
to each question on the questionnaire.

Pearson ' 3 Product Moment Correlation Coefficients

53
was used to determine if there were correlations among
the regions with respect to social trends, future
images, futuring processes, and present goal priorities

and priorities for 1985.

Presentation of the Data

The questionnaire consisted of four sections
as follows: (1) the expected impact of social trends
on community and junior college development; (2) future
images of the community and junior college, their feasie-
bility and desirability; (3) the present engagement in
futuring processes and their importance, and (4) the
ranking of institutional goal priorities for the present
and for 1985.

For all four sections of the questionnaire scale
values were generated by a computer program and then
transformed into interval scales. Tables were used to
present the data graphically and were supported by wri-
ten description. Comparisons were made among the vari-
ables, the ten regions, and colleges grouped according
to size.

The values generated by the categorical scaling
program were used in Pearson's Product Moment Correla-
tion Coefficients and in discriminant analysis. The
number of respondents to each question by region and

response scale (1-5) were used in the chi-square

54
analysis to determine if there was a relationship
between the regions and the type of responses. This
was repeated for colleges grouped according to size.
The data were gathered and analyzed, the report is what

follows.

CHAPTER IV
RESULTS OF THE STUDY

This investigation is an exploration of the
status of futuristics in community college administra-
tion in the ten regions of the United States of America.
More specifically, the study is concerned with the
extent to which social trends have an impact on the
development of the community college, images of the com-
munity college, futuring processes, and present and
future goal priorities which are used in the planning
and develOpment of the community college.

The results of the data generated by this study
have been grouped and presented as follows:

1. The generation of scale values and the
development of interval scales to determine the expected
impact of social trends on community college develop-
ment, the feasibility and desirability of images of the
community college, present use and importance of futur-
ing processes, and goal priorities for the present and
1985.

2. Pearson's Product Moment Correlation Coef-

ficients on the regions and variables as listed above.

55

56
3. Discriminant analysis among the regions on
the variables listed above.
4. Chi-square analysis on the above-mentioned

regions and Variables.

Scale Values Social Trends

Scale values were generated by the Categorical
Scaling procedure, which enabled the eighteen trends to
be placed along an interval scale. This procedure was
undertaken for each of the subgroups, namely, futuring
processes, future images, present goal priorities, and
goal priorities for 1985, to enable comparisons to be
made among the regions, and colleges grouped according
to size. The scale values were adjusted in each case
to range from zero for the least important trend to
ten for the most important.

Respondents from each of the ten regions rated
the eighteen trends. The scale values resulting from
the categorical rating procedure are shown in tables
1 and 2, and interval scales are shown in appendix E.

Eighteen social trends were presented to commu-
nity college administrators in the ten regions of the
United States as having the potential to impact on com-
munity college development. Two trends emerged above
level six on the unit interval scale as having an impact
on community college development. These were:

(1) energy shortages, and (2) advances in science and

57

 

 

 

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TABLE 2

SCALE VALUES FOR TRENDS--BY COLLEGES GROUPED

ACCORDING TO SIZE

 

Colleges grouped
according to size

 

 

Trends
Small Medium Large
1 Diversification of life 1.21 3.41 2.54
styles
2 Advances in science and ~
technology_ 7.27 5.45 5.18
3 Energy shortages ‘ 10 10 10
4 Women in most career '
fields 5.25 5.24 4.49
Changes in family life 2.20 .82 .93
Advances in communications 4.96 28 3.63
Tendency toward centralized
government control 3.44 5.44 7.73
8 Alienation, loss of per-
sonal control 0 .47 .14
9 Citizen participation in
community decisions 1.43 1.49 .35
10 End of "youth Culture,"
begin "adult culture" 4.33 5.05 6.18
11 Changes in the nature of
work 5.90 4.50 3.94
12 Diminution of higher educa-
tion for job entry and
security 2.50 2.39 4.40
13 From governmental services
to self-reliance .36 0 .69
14 From conformity to individ-
ual self-expression .78 1.17 0
15 From large-scale to small-
scale technology 2.07 2.54 .66
16 From job security to varied
life experiences 1.62 2.94 .55

 

60

TABLE 2--Continued

 

Colleges grouped

accordin to size
Trends 9

 

Small Medium Large

 

17 From consumption to con-

servation 5.26 6.02 5.17
18 From work- to leisure-
oriented society 1.75 3.51 4.33

 

 

technology. (At the third to sixth level on the unit
interval scale, six other trends emerged: (l) a value
shift from consumption to conservation, (2) entry of
women into most or all career fields, (3) changes in the
nature of work, (4) end of "youth culture," beginning of
an "adult development culture," (5) advances in communi-
cations, and (6) tendency toward centralized government
control.

The other ten social trends were at the 2.9 level
on the unit interval scale or below. These trends were
as follows: (1) diminution of higher education certifi-
cation as the means for job entry and security,

(2) change in family life (two-income families, single-
parent families), (3) from a work-oriented to a leisure-
oriented society, (4) from large-scale to small-scale

technology, (5) from job security to varied life exper-
iences, (6) diversification of life styles, (7) citizen

participation in community decision making, (8) from

61

conformity to individual self-expression, (9) feelings
of alienation, loss of personal contact, and (1) from
governmental services to self-reliance.

All ten regions did not agree that energy short-
ages and advances in science and technology would have
the greatest impact on community college development.
Regions seven and ten did not think advances in science
and technology would have much impact on community col-
lege development, and similarly, region eight down-
graded the impact of energy shortages.

While the national picture showed two trends as
having an impact at the sixth level or above on the unit
interval scale, the average for the regions was 4.6
trends, with region ten expecting eight trends to have
major impacts and region seven expecting only one.

In table 2 community colleges are compared accord-
ing to size of college on social trends. The picture
as seen among the regions remained quite similar,
although three social trends were added to the list of
important ones. These were as follows: (1) tendency
towards centralized government control, (2) end of
”youth culture" and the beginning of an "adult develOp-
ment culture," and (3) changes in the nature of work.
Medium and large schools placed emphasis on tendency
towards centralized governmental control and end of

"youth culture," beginning of an "adult developmental

62
culture," while small schools placed emphasis on changes
in the nature of work.

The picture remained very constant when the lowest
ranked social trends among the regions were compared
with the lowest ranked social trends according to com-
munity college size. One social trend was added to the
list ranked lowest by the regions: changes in family
life (two-income families, single-parent families).

Future images: feasibilipy
and desirability

 

 

In a similar manner, scale values were generated
for the feasibility of specific future images with
respect to each of the regions and with colleges grouped
according to small, medium, and large.

Respondents from each of the ten regions rated the
feasibility of six future images. The scale values
resulting from the categorical scaling procedure are
shown in tables 3, 4, 5, and 6, and interval scales are
shown in appendix E.

The predominant feasible image of the community
college was one of the community-based college. However,
several regions of the country, such as regions 2, 3,5,
6, and 10, held multiple images of the community college
which they ranked very closely. The View of community
college administrators in the ten regions was that the

development-based college was least feasible.

63

 

 

 

 

 

 

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pmmmnimcflcucmq
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64
Table 4 shows the scale values for the feasibil-
ity of future images grouped according to community and

junior college size.

TABLE 4

SCALE VALUES FOR FEASIBILITY OF FUTURE
IMAGES: BY COLLEGES GROUPED
ACCORDING TO SIZE

 

 

 

Colleges grouped
FutureImages: Feasibility according to Size
Small Medium Large
1 Life-based college 7.71 8.74 4.70
2 Learning-based college 7.06 8.33 9.11
3 Career-based college 7.73 10 10
4 Consumer-based college 7.04 8.94 8.35
5 Development-based
college 0 0 0
6 Community-based
college 10 8.99 8.42

 

 

When viewed according to community college size,
small community colleges found the image of the com-
munity-based college most feasible, community and
junior colleges grouped as medium and large viewed the
career-based college as most feasible. Like the regions,
community and junior colleges grouped according to size,
ranked other future images of the community college very

high. In table 5 are the scale values for the

65

 

 

 

 

 

 

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66
desirability of future images of the community college
from the regions. Interval scales are shown in appendix E .

An effort was made to determine if the feasible
image of the community college was also a desirable one.
The predominant view of community college administrators
in the ten regions was that the image of the community-
based college was the most desirable.

While the image of the community—based college
was the most desirable one, yet many regions of the
country reflected a multiple of images which appear to
be desirable. These are as follows: regions one, two,
three, five, and most noticeably, six.

The image of the community college which was
considered least desirable among community college
administrators in the ten regions was the development-
based college. In table 6 are the scale values for the
desirability of future images of the community college
grouped according to size.

Community colleges regardless of size, consi-
dered the community-based college the most desirable.
This was very much as the ten regions did, and like the
ten regions, the several groups of community colleges
(small, medium, and large) considered many future images
as highly desirable. Community colleges grouped as
small and large considered the image of the development-

based college as least desirable while colleges grouped

67
as medium considered the image of the learning-based

college as least desirable.

TABLE 6

SCALE VALUES FOR DESIRABILITY OF FUTURE
IMAGES: BY COLLEGES GROUPED
ACCORDING TO SIZE

 

 

 

Colleges grouped
Future Images: Desirability according to size
Small' Medium Large
Life-based college . 8.16 8.55 . 9.04
Learning-based college 7.48 0 9.04
Career-based college 7.74 9.66 9.73
Consumer-based college 7.98 8.40 9.61
Development-based college 0 7.61 _ 0
Community-based college 10 .10 10

 

 

Futuring processes:
present practice

An effort was made to determine two things:
(1) if community college administrators were engaged in
futuring processes, and (2) how important administrators
felt the futuring processes to be. Futuring processes
were described as efforts to identify social and commu-
nity trends, alternative images of the future college,
major college strengths and areas for improvement, long-

term priorities, and the writing of scenarios.

68

A tabulation reveals that community college
administrators were engaged hifuturing practices in the
following order: OJ identification of major institu-
tional strengths and areas for improvement; (2) the iden-
tification of social and community trends which may have
an impact on college development; ED periodic and spe-
cific activities to identify major institutional strengths
and areas for improvement; (4) establishing and recording
long—term priorities for college development (using Del—
phi or other consensus-seeking techniques) / (5) and writing
"scenarios"(storieswhich describe possible year-by-year
events which could happen as the college develops over
the next decade. These data are presented in table 7.

Futuring processes:
importance

 

 

Scale values were developed for the importance
of futuring processes with respect to the regions and
also for community and junior colleges grouped according
to size. They are presented in tables 8 and 9. Inter-
val scales are shown in appendix E.

Community college administrators in the ten
regions ranked futuring processes in the following order
of importance: (1) to engage in Specific activities to
identify major institutional strengths and areas for
improvement; (2) to identify social and community trends
which may have an impact on college development; and

(3) to establish and record long-term priorities for

69
college development. Ranked fourth and almost
equally as important as item three were efforts to exam-
ine alternatives open for future development and engage
in dialogue designed to create shared "images" of the
future of the college. Ranked fifth and last was the

writing of scenarios.

TABLE 7

ORDER AND EXTENT TO WHICH FUTURING PROCESSES
ARE USED IN COMMUNITY COLLEGES

 

 

 

 

Engage in activities
at present
Variable Rank
Percentage
Yes No
Identification of major
institutional strengths 1 89 11
Identification of social
and community trends 2 71 29
Examination of alterna-
tives for future
development 3 59 41
Establish and record
long-term priorities 4 53 47
Write scenarios 5 16 84

 

 

Administrators in all but regions seven and
eight felt that the writing of scenarios (stories which
describe possible year-by-year events which could

happen as their college develops over the next decade),

70

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72
were not at all important. In table 9 the responses of
community college administrators are shown with respect

to colleges grouped according to size.

TABLE 9

SCALE VALUES FOR FUTURING PROCESSES:
BY COMMUNITY COLLEGES GROUPED
ACCORDING TO SIZE

 

Colleges grouped

accordin to size
Future Processes: Importance g

 

Small Medium Large

 

l A specific period effort
to identify social and
community trends which
may have an impact on
college develOpment 8.10 7.23 9.82

2 Specific efforts to exam-
ine alternatives open
for future development
and engage in dialogue
designed to create shared
"images" of the future
of the college 6.10 7.37 4.95

3 Periodic and specific acti-
vities to identify major
institutional attempts
and areas for improvement 10 10 10

4 Establishing and recording
long-term priorities for
college development (us-
ing delphi or other con-
sensus-seeking techniques 6'57 6'02 6'81

5 Writing "scenarios,"
(stories which describe
possible year-by-year
events which could happen
as your college develops
over the next decade 0 0 0

 

 

73

When community and junior colleges were grouped
according to size, they chose the futuring process of
periodic and specific activities to identify major
institutional strengths and areas for improvement as
being of prime importance. Like the regions, they also
considered scenario writing to be the least important
futuring activity.

Present goal priorities

 

In a similar manner scale values were develOped for

present goal priorities with respect to the ten regions
and community and junior colleges grouped according to
size. Respondents from each of the ten regions rated
the nineteen present goal priorities. The scale values
resulting from the categorical rating procedure are
shown in tables 10 and 11. Interval scales are shown
in appendix E.

Looking at the administrator's responses to the
nineteen present priority goals as a whole, three prior-
ities emerge at or above level seven on the unit inter-
val scale. These were as follows: (1) college transfer
programs which enable students to work towards a four—
year degree, (2) programs which provide adults with read—
ing, writing, and math skills necessary to success in col-
legiate efforts,aux1(3) counseling programs which assist
persons in determining career and other life goals.

Three present goal priorities emerge between

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77
levels 3.1 on the unit interval scale and 6.9. They
are as follows: (1) manpower,programs to assist adults
achieve career goals and contribute to the economic
development of the area, (2) accessibility to college
programs including those who cannot attend on-campus
programs, and (3) short-term community services programs
to assist adults in improving skills in various life
roles.

There were twelve goals which were at level
three or below on the unit interval scale. These were-
as follows: (1) programs in cooperation with other com—
munity agencies and groups which assist in solving con-
temporary community problems, (2) continuing education
programs for those in health and other human service
fields, (3) instructional and other counseling appro-
ches which assist persons at various adult development
life stages or transitions, (4) individualized instruc-
tion through approaches such as contract learning, tele-
vision, and audio-tutorial instruction, (5) programs to
assist homemakers to enter or re-enter the work force,
(6) programs which emphasize services to minority
groups, (7) programs which enhance the ability of the
adult to perform adult life roles, such as worker, citi-
zen, consumer, and family member, (8) counseling pro—
grams which assist adults in adapting to college life,

(9) results-oriented instruCtion based on specified

78
learning outcomes, (10) programs which assist people in
preparing for second careers, (11) instructional pro-
grams based on an international perspective, and
(12) joint programming with labor unions, industries,
and other community agencies or groups.

Unlike the national picture, some regions showed
a distinct regional view in terms of number of present
goal priorities and different goal priorities. For
example, region ten chose as its highest present prior-
ity, programs to assist homemakers enter and re-enter
the work force. This was the only goal priority which
emerged at or above level seven on the unit interval
scale. Two other important programs, college transfer
programs, and programs to provide adults with writing,
reading, and math skills for collegiate efforts, were
rated below the above-mentioned level.

Regions three and seven were very unlike the
national profile in that whereas, the national profile
ranked three goal priorities at levels seven to ten on
the unit interval scale, these regions registered as
many as nine priorities between the same levels on the
interval scale. The present goal priorities included
the three in the national profile and six others. Fur-
ther details are given in appendix E.

In a similar manner scale values were developed

for present goal priorities with respect to colleges

grouped according to size.

79

TABLE 11

The scale values from cate-

gorical procedure are shown in table 11.

SCALE VALUES FOR PRESENT GOAL PRIORITIES:
BY COLLEGES GROUPED ACCORDING TO SIZE

 

Present goal priorities

College grouped
according to size

 

Small Medium Large

 

Accessability to college
programs, including those
who cannot attend
on-campus programs

Counseling programs which
assist persons in deter-
mining career and other
life goals

Programs which provide
adults with the writing,
reading, and math skills
for collegiate efforts

Instructional and counsel-
ing approaches to assist
adults in various devel-
opment states or transi-
tions

Counseling programs to
assist adults in adapt-
ing to college life

Programs to assist adults
in the performance of
adult life roles, such
as worker, citizen, con-
sumer, family member

Manpower programs to
assist adults achieve
career goals and contri-
bute to economic devel-
Opment of area

 

7.89 8.55 7.98
8 85 10 6 85
9.32 9.98 8.30
6.36 6.14 3.73
5.62 6.21 5.65
5.48 5.44 6.64
7.97 9.38 10

80

TABLE ll--Continued

 

 

Present goal priorities

Colleges grouped
according to size

 

Small Medium Large

 

Ooo

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

College transfer programs

Short-term community services

programs to assist adults
in improving skills in
various life role areas

Individualized instruction
through contract learning,
T.V., and audio-tutorial

Results-oriented instruction
based on specified learning
outcomes

Retirement and pre-
retirement programs

Programs to assist home-
makers enter or re-enter
the work force

Continuing education pro-
grams for those in health
and other human service
fields

Programs to assist in the
preparation for second
careers

Programs in cooperation with
other community agencies
and groups which assist in
solving contemporary com-
munity problems

Instructional programs based
on an international per-
spective

Programs which emphasize
service to minority groups

Joint programming with labor
unions, industries, and
other community groups and
agencies

 

10 9.84 9.50

7.88 8.42 8.05

5.85 5.88 3.91

6.45 6.84 6.54

5.46 7.41 6.75

5.45 6.32 5.85

 

81

When community college administrator's responses
were grouped according to community and junior college
size, approximately twice as many goal priorities for
the present were found at level seven or above on the
interval scale in colleges of all sizes as compared to
the national profile which had only three. Colleges
grouped as small and medium cited the same three top
priorities as were cited in the national profile, with
colleges grouped as small, adding three more goal prior-
ities for the present to round out their list of prior-
ities. Colleges grouped as medium, added five others.
Colleges grouped as large did not choose as many present
goal priorities as colleges grouped as small and medium.
They dropped counseling programs to assist in the deter-
mination of other life goals, but included, like col-
leges grouped as small and medium, manpower programs to
assist adults achieve career goals and contribute to the
economic goals of the area; short-term community serv-
ices programs to assist adults in improving skills in
various life role areas; and.accessibility to college
programs including those who cannot attend on-campus
programs.

Goal priorities for 1985
by region and by size

In a similar manner, scale values were developed
for goal priorities for 1985 with respect to the ten

regions and community and junior colleges grouped

82
according to size. Respondents from each of the ten
regions rated the nineteen goal priority statements for
1985. The scale values from the categorical procedures
are shown in tables 12 and 13. Interval scales are
shown in appendix E.

The regional View of community college admini-
strators of the nineteen priorities for 1985 taken as a whole
reveals twelve goal statements which were at level 7 of the
unit interval scale or above. These were as follows:

(1) instructional and counseling approaches which assist
adult persons at various adult development stages or transi-
tions, (2) college transfer programs which enable students
to work towards a four-year degree, (3) programs which pro-
vide adults with writing, reading, and math skills necessary
to successfully undertake collegiate efforts, (4) counseling
programs which assist persons in determining career and
other life goals, (5) programs in cooperation with other
community agencies and groups which assist in solving con-
temporary community problems, (6) programs which assist
people in preparing for second careers, (7) short-term
community service programs which permit adults to
improve skills in various life-role areas, (8) individ—
ualized instruction through approaches such as contract
learning, television and audio-tutorial instruction,

(9) results-oriented instruction based on specified

learning outcomes, (1) programs for retired persons and

83

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86
those preparing for retirement, (ll) continuing educa-
tion programs for those in health and other human serv-
ice fields, and (12) counseling programs which assist
adults in adapting to college life.

Five goal priorities for 1985 were found at
interval levels from 3.1 to 6.9. The five goal prior-
ities are as follows: (1) programs to assist adults in
the performance of adult life roles, such as worker,
citizen, consumer, and family member, (2) manpower pro-
grams to assist adults achieve career goals and contri-
bute to the economic goals of the area (3) programs
based on an international perspective, (4) joint pro-
gramming with labor unions, industries, and other com-
munity groups and agencies, and (5) programs to assist
homemakers enter and re-enter the work force.

In a similar manner, only two goals were found
at level three or below on the interval scale. These
were as follows: (1) programs which emphasize services
to minority groups, and (2) accessibility to college
programs, including those who cannot attend on-campus
programs.

Except for region one, which recorded four goal
priorities for 1985, and region nine, which recorded six
goal priorities for 1985 between levels seven and ten on

the interval scale, all the other regions generally

87
reflected a profile of goal priorities more like the

national one. These are shown on table 13.

TABLE 13

SCALE VALUES FOR GOAL PRIORITIES 1985:
BY COLLEGES GROUPED ACCORDING TO SIZE

 

 

Goal priorities 1985 according to 8

Colleges grouped

ize

 

Small Medium Large

 

1 Accessibility to college
programs, including those '
who cannot attend
on-campus programs 0 O

2 Counseling programs which
assist persons in deter-
mining career and other
life goals 9.10 9.74

3 Programs which provide
adults with the writing,
reading, and math skills
for collegiate efforts 9.50 9.98

4 Instructional and counsel-
ing approaches to assist
adults in various devel-
opment states or transi-
tions 10 9.13

5 Counseling programs to
assist adults in adapt-
ing to college life 8.30 7.86

6 Programs to assist adults
in the performance of
adult life roles, such.
as worker, citizen, con-
sumer, family member 7.58 7.54

7 Manpower programs to
assist adults achieve
career goals and contri-
bute to economic devel-
opment of area 7.38 7.36

8 College transfer programs 9.38 10

 

.48

5.13

5.14

5.27
10

88

TABLE 13--Continued

 

 

Goal Priorities 1985

Colleges grouped
according to size

 

Small Medium Large

 

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

Short-term community services
programs to assist adults
in improving skills in
various life role areas

Individualized instruction
through contract learning,
T.V., and audio-tutorial

Results-oriented instruction
based on specified learning
outcomes

Retirement and pre-
retirement programs

Programs to assist home-
makers enter or re-enter
the work force

Continuing education pro-
grams for those in health
and other human service
fields

Programs to assist in the
preparation for second
'careers

Programs in cooperation with
other community agencies
and groups which assist in
solving contemporary com-
munity problems

Instruction programs based
on an international per-
spective

Programs which emphasize
service to minority groups

Joint programming with labor
unions, industries, and
other community groups and
agencies

 

8.46

7.82

7.29

7.45

3.64

6.13

6.63

7.01

6.14'

 

89

When the nineteen priority goal statements for
1985 were considered according to community college
size, colleges grouped as small and medium each identi-
fied sixteen of the nineteen goal statements at or
above level seven of the interval scale. Colleges
grouped as large identified three priority goal state-
ments at or above level seven of the tnui: interval
scale and twelve between level five and seven. Commun-
ity and junior colleges regardless of group, did not
consider accessibility to college programs, including
those who cannot attend on campus programs, and programs
which emphasize services to minority groups to be
important priorities for 1985.

Pearsons Product Moment
Correlation

Pearsons Product Moment Correlations Coeffi-
cients was used to determine if there were correlations
among the different regions with respect to social
trends, future images, futuring processes, present and
1985 institutional goal priorities, and among colleges
grouped according to size, using the scale values gen-
erated by the categorical procedure.

Social trends

Community college administrators in the ten
regions fell into five groups in their views of how
social trends would impact on their college. Group one

was made up of regions one and nine, whose views were

90

similar. Group two was made up of regions three, four,
five, and ten, whose views were similar. Group three
was made up of regions four and five, who had similar
views. Group four was made up of regions five and ten,
whose views were similar, and group five was made up of
regions two, six, seven, and eight, who had separate
views on how social trends would impact against their
college. The data described above are presented in
table 14.
Future images: feasibility

When viewing the feasibility of future images
of the community college, community college administra-
tors fell into four groups. Group one was comprised of
regions one and seven, whose views were different rather
than similar. Group two was made up of regions three
and nine, whose views were different rather than simi-
lar. Group three was made up of regions eight and ten,
whose views were similar, and group four was made up of
regions two, four, five, and six, which had separate
views and views not in common with any other region.
The data described above are presented in table 15.
Future images: desirability

Community college administrators fell into three
groups in viewing the desirability of future images of
the community college. Group one was made up of regions

one and four, which had similar views. Group two was

91

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92

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93
made up of regions three and nine, whose views were
similar, and group three was made up of regions two,
five, six, seven, eight, and ten, each of whose Views
were different. The data described above are presented
in table 16.

Futuring processes: yes
and no

Community college administrators fell into four
groups in their response to five yes and no questions
inquiring about their present engagement in futuring
processes. Group one comprised regions two, four, and
seven. Region four engaged in futuring activities which
appear to be quite different than those of region two,
while region seven's activities appear to be quite simi-
lar.

Group two was comprised of regions three, five,
six, and nine. Their futuring activities appear to be
similar. Group three was comprised of regions four and
seven. There was a negative correlation between them.
Group four was comprised of regions one, eight, and ten.
These engage in different futuring activities from each
other and from among other regions. The data described
above is presented in table 17.

Futuring processes: importance

The response of community college administrators

to the importance of five futuring processes fell into

four groups. Group one was made up of regions one,

94

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95

 

 

 

 

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96
eight, and ten. There was a negative correlation
between one and eight and a positive correlation between
regions one and ten.

Group two was made up of regions four and nine,
both of which viewed futuring processes in a similar
manner. Group three was made up of regions five and
seven, both of which was negatively correlated, and
group four was made up of regions two, three, and six.
No correlation existed among the regions in group four.
The data described above are presented in table 18.
Present goals: priority

The responses of community college administra-
tors fell into three groups on the priority of goals for
the present. Group one was comprised of regions one and
ten and are positively correlated. Group two was com-
prised of regions five and nine and are positively cor-
related. Group three was comprised of regions two,
three, four, six, seven, and eight, each of which held
separate views. The data described above are presented
in table 19.

1985 goals: priority

 

Community college administrators' responses to
long-term goals for 1985 were divided into five groups.
Group one was comprised of regions one and five, which
were positively correlated. Group two was comprised of

regions two, five, eight, and nine, and were positively

97

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99

correlated. Group three, comprised of regions three
and five, were positively correlated. Group four, com-
prised of regions four and seven, were positively cor-
related. Group five, comprised of regions six and ten,
each held different views from each other and from the
rest of the regions about the priority of long-term
goals for 1985. The data described above are presented

in table 20.

Discriminant Analysis

 

Discriminant analysis was used to study whether
the various sub-groups by region and by size were sig-
nificantly differentiated on the basis of the different
sets of dependent variables--social trends, future
images, futuring processes, goal priorities for the
present, and goal priorities for 1985.

Among the fourteen discriminant analyses, only
three yielded a significant function. These were for
school size, with respect to social trends, and futuring
processes.

Social trends

Table 21 gives the standardized discriminant
function of the eighteen social trend variables which
significantly discriminated among schools of different
sizes. For this function, the test of significance
yielded a chi-square of 51.38 with thirty-six degrees of

freedom, and a probability of .0446.

100

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101

TABLE 21

STANDARD DISCRIMINANT FUNCTION BY SCHOOL SIZE:
SOCIAL TRENDS

 

 

 

- Discriminant
Variable Weight Rank
1 Diversification of life
styles 4.56 5
2 Advances in science and tech-
nology -5.29 2
3 Energy shortages 2.97 9
4 Women in most career fields - .47 17
5 Changes in family life 2.20 ll
6 Advances in communications -l.70 12
7 Tendency towards centralized
governmental control 6.60 l
8 Alienation, loss of personal
control -4.86 4
9 Citizen participation in com-
munity decisions -l.12 14
10 End of "youth culture," begin-
ning of "adult culture" 4.02 7
ll Changes in the nature of work -5.10
12 Diminution of higher education
as for job entry and
security .86 l6
13 From governmental services to
self-reliance -2.52 lo
14 From conformity to individual
self-expression -3.6l 8.
15 From large-scale to small-
scale technology 1.57 13
16 From job security to varied '
life experiences .39 l8
17 From consumption to conserva-
tion - .97 15
18 From work- to leisure-oriented
society 4.29 6

 

102

It is common to note those variables whose
standard weight is at least 50 percent of the maximum
absolute weight. In this case eight variables would be
included, with decreasing degree of importance in dis-
tinguishing among the groups.

The means of the three groups on the discrimi-
nant function were .237 for group one, colleges grouped
as small; .752 for group two, colleges grouped as
medium; and 1.116 for group three, colleges grouped as
large. These are located in figure 1 together with the
eight variables, in decreasing order of importance from
top to bottom. The arrow indicates the direction of.

increasing strength of that variable.

Tendency towards centralized
government control

L Advances in science and technology

‘

Changes in the nature of work

‘

JAlienation, loss of personal control
Diversification of life styles
From work- to leisure-oriented society

End of "youth culture," beginning
of "adult culture"

From conformity to individual

4 self-expression

v I II III
11 i l 1 1 J l
r l I 1

11— IL
0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1.0 1.2

Fig. 1. Location of college group by size on
discriminant function: social trends.

103

Thus, with increasing size of college, there is
a tendency for greater importance to be given to the
tendency towards centralized government control; diver-
sification of life styles; from work- to a leisure-
oriented society; and end of "youth culture" to begin-
ning of "adult development culture." Lesser importance
is given to advances in science and technology; changes
in the nature of work; alienation, loss of personal
control; and from conformity to self-expression.

Futuring processes: Eigen-
vector 1

In a similar manner, two significant functions
were yielded for futuring processes. It is customary
to give more weight to one of these functions than the
other, but the data for each eigenvector is presented.
‘Table 15 gives the standardized discriminant function
for the five futuring processes variables which signifi-
cantly differentiate among schools of different sizes
and are associated with eigenvector one. For this
function, the test of significance yielded a chi-square
of 41.70 with ten degrees of freedom and a probability
of .0000. ,

It is common to note those variables whose
standard weight is at least 50 percent of the maximum
absolute weight. In this case all five variables would

be included, with decreasing degree of importance in

distinguishing among the groups.

104

TABLE 22

STANDARD DISCRIMINANT FUNCTION BY SCHOOL SIZE:
FUTURING PROCESSES

 

 

Discriminant

Weight Rank

Variable

 

l A specific periodic effort to
identify social and community
trends which may have an
impact on college development 6.74 l

2 Specific efforts to examine
alternatives open for future
development and engage in
dialogue designed to create
shared images of the future
of the college ‘ ' 3.91 5

3 Periodic and specific activities
to identify major institu-
tional strengths and areas for
improvement -6.27 2

4 Establishing and recording long-
term priorities for college
development (using Delphi or
other consensus-seeking tech-
niques 5.85 3

5 Writing scenarios (stories which
describe possible year-by-year
events which could happen as
your college develops over the
next decade -4.90 4

 

The means of the three groups on the discrimi-
nany function were: 1.141 for colleges grouped as
small; 1.338 for colleges grouped as medium; and 1.562
for colleges grouped as large. These are located on a

scale in figure 2, together with the five variables, in

105
decreasing order of importance from tOp to bottom. The
arrow indicates the direction of increasing strength of

that variable.

A specific periodic effort to identify
social and community trends which may
have an impact on college
development

Periodic and specific activities to
identify major institutional
strengths and areas for
improvement

 

1+

Establishing and recording long-term
priorities for college development
(using Delphi or other consensus-
seeking techniques)

~lr

 

Writing scenarios (stories which
describe possible year-by-year
events which could happen as
your college develops over

the next decade)

‘}

Specific efforts to examine alter-

natives open for future development

and engage in dialogue designed to

create shared images of the future
of the college

—4

L
I
.2 .4 .6 .8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6

Fig. 2. Location of college group by size on dis-
criminant function: futuring processes:-
Eigenvector l

106

Thus, with increasing size of college, there is
a tendency for greater importance to be placed on a
specific periodic effort to identify social and commu-
nity trends which may have an impact on college develop-
ment; and specific efforts to examine alternatives open for
future development and engage in dialogue designed to
create shared images of the future of the college. Les-
ser importance is given to periodic and specific activi-
ties to identify major institutional strengths and areas
for improvement, and to writing scenarios which describe
possible year-by-year events which could happen as a
college develops over the next decade.

Futuring processes: Eigen-
vector 2

 

Table 23 gives the standardized discriminant
function for the five futuring processes variables
which significantly differentiated among schools of dif-
ferent sizes and are associated with eigenVector two.
For this function, the test of significance yielded a
chi-square of ll.27 with four degrees of freedom and a
probability of .0237.

It is common to note those variables whose
standard weight is at least 50 percent ofaamaximum
weight. In this case, three of the five variables would
be included, with decreasing degree of importance in dis-
tinguishing among the groups. The means of the three

groups on the discriminant function were 3.177 for

107
colleges grouped as small; 3.451 for colleges grouped
as medium; and 2.965 for colleges grouped as large.
These are located on a scale in figure 3, together with
the three variables in decreasing order of importance
from top to bottom. The arrow indicates the direction

of increasing strength of that variable.

TABLE 23

STANDARDIZED DISCRIMINANT FUNCTION BY SCHOOL SIZE:
FUTURING PROCESSES--EIGENVECTOR 2

 

Discriminant

Weight Rank

Variable

 

1 A specific periodic effort to
identify social and community
trends which may have an
impact on college develop-
ment 4.74 4

2 A specific effort to examine
alternatives open for future
development and engage in
dialogue designed to create
shared images of the future
of the college 11.65 1

3 Periodic and specific activities
to identify major institu-
tional strengths and areas
for improvement 7.63 3

4 Establishing and recording
long-term priorities for col-
lege development (using Delphi
or other consensus-seeking
techniques) -9.68 2

5 Writing scenarios (stories which
describe possible year-by-year
events which could happen as
your college develops over the
next decade) 3.97 5

 

108

Specific effort to examine alternatives open
for future development and engage in dialogue
designed to create shared images of the
college

Writing scenarios (stories which describe
possible year-by-year events which
could happen as your college
develops over the next decade)

 

1%

Periodic and specific activities to identify
major institutional strengths and areas
for improvement

V

 

Fig. 3. Location of college groups by size on
discriminant function: futuring processes--
Eigenvector 2

Chi-Square

 

Chi-square was used to determine if there was a
significant difference among community college admin-
istrators among the regions in their response to each
question on the questionnaire. A chi-square test was
also conducted to determine if community colleges
grouped as small, medium, and large responded signifi-
cantly different to each question on the questionnaire.

Social trends

 

This researcher found that there was no signi-

ficant difference at the p‘<.05 level among community

109
college administrators in the regions. A significant
difference was found at the p“.05 level among community
colleges grouped according to size. Table 24 shows the
proportional responses from colleges of various sizes
to the question which asked whether they engaged in a
periodic effort to identify social and community trends

which may have an impact on college development.

TABLE 24

CHI-SQUARE ANALYSIS BY SCHOOL SIZE:
EFFORT TO IDENTIFY TRENDS

 

 

 

College size Yes No
Small .643 .357
Medium .628 .372
Large .263 .737

 

Chi-square = 10.2146 with two degrees of freedom.
P = .006.

Four bodies of data have been presented dealing
with (l) the expected impact of social trends on commun-
ity college development, (2) the feasibility and desir-
ability of alternative images of the community college
in 1985, (3) the present engagement and importance of
futuring processes, and (4) present and 1985 goal prior-
ities. Chapter V will discuss the results in the same

order.

CHAPTER V
INTERPRETATION OF RESULTS

In Chapter I the purpose of the study was
described as: (1) to study the extent to which commu-
nity and junior colleges were engaged in futuring,

(2) to identify the extent of present practice and to
describe some of the best elements and practices which
are available. This chapter will analyze the results of

the data as it relates to various parts of the problem.

Discussion of Results

Unit interval scales:
social trends

 

Two hundred and twenty—one respondents in the
national sample recognized social trends as having an
impact on community junior college development. Speci-
ficially, they expected that in the next decade two
trends would be of particular significance. These were
energy shortages and advances in science and technology.

Since these two trends rated on a unit interval
scale at or above level six, one would expect to find
references to them in planning documents, goal setting,

and in some or all of their futuring processes.

llO

111

References would also be found in actions taken, or
directives which would recognize the;nnpact of these
trends on college development. Suggestions would also
be found about the minimization of undesirable effects
and the maximization of desirable effects on college
development. For example, what would a president of a
community junior college do if he expected.cmrknew that
five years into the future his institution would be
faced with shortages of energy and steeply rising
prices? If advances in science and technology was con-
sidered in a similar manner as energy shortages,.the
president could study the impact one trend might have
on the other. This could range from no impact at all
to a very major'impact, The relevant information gathered
in this manner could, on the one hand, lead to the con-
clusion that energy shortages might have a minimum
impact on the college. On the other hand, the informa-
tion might reveal that energy shortages could have a
major impact on the college and that advances in science
and technology were not an ameliorating factor. If the
analysis was correct, the president would be left with
the original problem, energy shortages.

Since nothing is ever as simple as it first
appears, what could be some of the implications of
energy shortages over a five-year period? Such ques-

tions as severity and price would have to be considered.

112
The answers to these questions would provide some
insight on how price might affect the budget, in terms
of how the college could support the instructional pro-
gram, faculty salaries, maintenance of facilities and
equipment, and needed expansion, if there were such
needs. The idea was to study the interrelationships
and impacts, to better inform policy development and
planning.

While national social trends rated high on the
unit interval scale as being important, social trends
around the middle and lower end of the scale were impor—
tant for the potential they offered in policy develop-
ment and goal setting. The discussion of social trends
around the lowest end of the scale will.follow.

Ten social trends were under consideration.
They were as follows: (1) diminution of higher educa-
tion certification as the means of job entry and secur-
ity; (2) changes in family life; (3) from a work- to a
leisure-oriented society; (4) from large-scale to small-
scale technology; (5) from job security to varied life
experiences; (6) diversification of life styles;

(7) citizen participation in community decision making;
(8) feelings of alienation, loss of personal control;
(9) from conformity to individual self-expression; and
(MD from governmental services to self-reliance.

These ten national social trends which fall at

113
the bottom of the unit interval scale may be viewed by
chief administrators of community junior colleges with
apprehension or with relief or with some Of both. From
a national perspective the rating of these trends pro-
vide a rough gauge of the national expression of them.
National trends reinforced by similar regional trends
could be instructive in informing policy directions and
planning activities. Where national trends are not
supported by regional trends, community junior college
administrators would do well to pay attention to local
and regional trends. For example, in regions one, two,
and ten, they were five, four,anuifour trends at level
2.9 or below as compared with ten at the national level
at 2.9 or below on the unit interval scale.

Regions one, two, and ten may discount the sig-
nificance of the social trends; diminution of higher
education certification as the means for job entry and
security; and from governmental services to self-
reliance, from two points of reference. On the one
hand, they were not identified as national trends and
on the other, they were not identified as regional
trends.

Region one may discount feelings of alienation,
loss of personal control; citizen participation in com—
munity decision making; and from conformity to individ-

ual self-expression; for similar reasons as stated

114
above. Region ten may apply similar reasoning with
respect to the social trend, feelings of alienation,
loss of personal control.

The situation was somewhat different for region
two to discount the social trend, changes hlfamilylife.
This trend was not among the social trends found at the
2.9 level or below on the interval scale. If region
two were to discount this trend it would have to be
done on the basis that the region does not consider it
to be significant, and on any other studies or surveys
which supported the regional position.

Unlike the social trends which fell at the 2.9
or below level, those which fell between levels three
and 6.9 were significant for policy development,

goal setting and planning. As was the case

with the social trends which fell at the 2.9 level or
below, those which fell at the three to 6.9 level must
be considered on their own regional strength. When the
force of a trend is established both at the national and
regional levels, that trend is significant. This is
particularly significant because some trends have
national but no regional force or vice versa. This was
borne out by the national profile of social trends which
were expected to have an impact on community junior
colleges in the ten regions. The national profile had

six social trends at the three to 6.9 level on the

115
interval scale. Of the ten regions, three had ten
social trends in this category, two had nine, two had
eight, two had seven, and one had five. Nine of the
ten regions had more social trends at the three to 6.9
level than the national profile, and one region had
five, one less than the national profile.

The differences among the regions and the
national profile on social trends were not limited to
number of trends, but also included a variety of dif-
ferent trends. This was to be expected, because it
reflected that in different parts of the country commu~
nity and junior college administrators were responding
to trends differently. What was reflected was the
dynamic of change.

Community and junior colleges, regardless of
size, considered the social trend, energy shortages, to
have a major impact on their development. This finding
was similar to the national finding and reflects the
conclusion that most of the regions reported. From the
evidence, energy shortages could be considered a
national trend.

Community and junior colleges grouped as small,
medium, and large, rated fewer social trends at level
seven and above on the unit interval scale than did the
regions, or as was found in the national profile. Col-

leges grouped as small and large rated two trends, and

116
colleges grouped as medium rated one trend at level
seven or above. Colleges grouped as small considered
advances in science and technology as having a major
impact on their institutions while colleges grouped as
medium and large considered it as having a moderate
impact on them.

Colleges grouped as large considered the ten-
‘dency toward centralized government control as having a
major impact on their institutions. Colleges grouped
as medium rated this trend at level four of the unit
interval scale, and colleges grouped as small rated it
even lower, at the 3.4 level of the scale.

This study did not provide the answer why com-
munity colleges grouped as large viewed the tendency
towards centralized governmental control as having a
major impact on their development. Nor does it explain
why colleges grouped as small and medium ascribed only
moderate impact to this trend on their development. One
factor which appeared to offer some explanation was the
increased competition with other areas of the public
sector for scarce financial resources.

King (1975), Gleazer (1973, pp. 128-29),
affirmed that State legislators will increasingly get
into the "nitty-gritty" of college operations. He
offered at least two reasons for this. On the one hand,

legislators are the representatives of the people on all

117
issues, and on the other hand, community and junior
colleges are only as autonomous as they can afford to
be. That is, the less money they require from the
legislature, the more control community and junior col-
leges can have over themselves.

Images: feasibility
and desirability

 

 

This study showed that the predominant image of
communityanuijunior colleges was the community-based
image. This was true of the national profile as well as
among the regions. Four of the ten regions chose the image
of the community-based college as the most feasible for
them. Two regions chose the development-based college,
and the other four regions each chose one of the other
four remaining images as the one1most suitable for them.

It was not surprising that the image of the com-
munity-based college was the one found to be most feas-
ible by community and junior colleges. The literature
supports this position. Gleazer (1973, pp. 213-17)
observed, "there is a meeting place for America's diver-
sity, a common ground, a means for communication. .

The meeting place is America's community colleges."

The forging of the images, "community" and "college"
into a single image of "community college" was a
response in the late sixties to "divisions and struggles
for identity as part of a cultural nationalism; it was

concerned about the youth culture and generation gaps,

118
the haves and have-nots, the hard hats and the long H
hairs." The result was an image of an institution which
promised much for the present as well as for the future.

The characteristics of promise for the present
and for the future make the image, "community college,"
a very powerful one. Images of the future work their
way

toward the real future through their magnetic
mass-appeal and the massive expansion of influence-
optimism in the forward strivings and active aspira-
tions of man. These images not only reflect the
shape of things to come in the present but they
give shape to these things and promote their com-
ing. (Bundy, 1976, p. 11)

The community college movement of the 19605 by
fusing the community and the college together created an
image which caught the essence of what Bundy was talking
about. The erection of community colleges was a
response to needs, but those needs touched the pride of
people, who, according to (Sleazer (1973, p- 214) said,
"this city needs a community college."

The image, "community college," created in the
minds of people an educational institution which was both
feasible and desirable. Four regions considered the
image "community-based college," the most feasible, as
well as the most desirable image of the future. For an
image to be feasible, it must be capable of being accom-

plished, suitable, likely, or possible. It must have

the possibility for being achieved or accomplished. The

119
image, "community college," appeared to have all of
these characteristics. But it must move beyond them,
beyond.feasibility and desirability to what Bundy(l976,
p. 27) called "capable of being lived." For many
peOple in America, the image of the community-based
college is alive, attractive, and worth seeking for its
beneficial effects.

Other images

 

Although the image, community based college, was
considered the most feasible and desirable, there were
other competing images. This was particularly so among
the ten regions as well as among colleges grouped
according to size. Two of the regions preferred the
images, development-based college, to that of community-
based college. They considered the image, development-
based college, the most feasible, though not the most
desirable. Similarly, five of the regions considered
three or more competing images as feasible and reported
them at level eight or above on the unit interval scale.
The high rating of competing images of the community
college suggested that while the community-based col—
lege image was foremost, there were other images which
were competing with it and could in time supplant it.

When community and junior colleges were grouped
according to size, colleges grouped as small considered

the image, community-based college, as the most feasible

120
for them. Colleges grouped as medium and large con-
sidered the image of the community-based college as the
most feasible. However, colleges of all sizes con—
sidered the image of the community-based college as the
most feasible. In a pattern somewhat similar to the ten
regions, community and junior colleges grouped as medium
and large reported four images above level eight as
feasible and desirable. The data also suggested that
there was vigorous competition from other images of the
community college for the place of being the most feas-
ible and desirable.

These findings were consistent with the litera-
ture. Images of the future are always in competition
with other images of the future. Bundy (1976), pp.
11-12), observed,

. . the history of human civilization abounds
with future-forming images of the future, supple-
menting and supplanting each other in a continuous
golden chain, welded together by the world's
greatest prophets, philosophers, poets, humanists,
idealists, saints, scholars . . . by the Visionary
men of genius and thought-provoking pioneers.

Images supplement and supplant each other. The
image of the two-year college up to 1945 was that of a
junior college (Thornton, 1960, p. 53). Increasingly
after 1945, and especially during the decade of the
19603, the image of the community college became the

dominant image of the community college movement

(Monroe, 1972, pp. 14-17). The distinctive

121
characteristic of this period was its novel approach to
education. The community college image supplanted the
junior college image. Whether the former will endure
was not a question of this study, but it was clear that
there were many other competing images.

Futuring processes

 

This portion of the questionnaire contained two
sections. One section required respondents to indicate
by a "yes" or "no" whether they were presently engaged in
any or all of five futuring processes. The second sec-
tion asked respondents to state on a Likert scale of one
to five, how important they felt it was to engage in
futuring processes.

Community and junior college administrators con-
sidered periodic and specific activities to identify
major institutional strengths and areas for improvement,
as the most important activity in futuring. It was
rated at 8.9 on the interval scale. This was followed
by the identification of social and community trends
which may have an impact on college development, fol-
lowed by the examination of alternatives open for devel-
opment, as well as image designing, creation, and shar-
ing; long-term priorities for college development; and
lastly, scenarios.

There appeared to be many reasons why community

and junior college administrators chose as the most

122
important futuring process, periodic and specific acti-
vities to identify major institutional strengths and
areas for improvement. One reason was that this choice
was supported in the literature. Another reason was
that community and junior colleges have become used to
the identification of strengths and weaknesses in pre-
paration for accreditation from.(accrediting'lbodies.
The hope was that colleges would capitalize on their
strengths, improve their weaknesses, or eliminate them,
and be better able to better serve their communities.

A first step in securing accreditation is to
provide "evidence of sound planning, have available the
resources to implement its plans, and appear to have
the potential for attaining its goals within a reason-

able time" (Handbook on Accreditation, 1975, p. 9).

 

Dressel (1971, p. 280), identified a number of points
that need to be studied for accreditation, and included
among them, definition and clarification of institu-
tional purposes and goals; and a review of the strengths
and weaknesses of current curriculum organization and
instructional methods of the institution. Semion (1974,
p. 285) believes that present-day accreditation does not
follow fixed rules or norms, but among other factors,
evaluates according to an institutions' particular set
of goals and objectives.

It would appear that the force of the literature

 

123
and the practice of community college administrators in
the identification of institutional strengths and weak-
nesses, have helped to insure some strengthsae well as
to identify this process as the most important in
futuring.

The activity which community and junior college
administrators rated as second in usage was the identi-
fication of social and community trends which may have
an impact on college development. This activity
received a 7.1 rating on the interval scale. The iden-
tification or creation of trends may have an important
impact on college development. Gleazer (1973, p. 214),
in discussing "trends in community relations," con-
sidered it a "dramatic shift in higher education, when
community and junior college planners began to study
their service areas and then designed programs to fit
the needs they uncovered."

The importance of the shift was the manner in
which community and junior college planners and admin-
istrators viewed higher education. Traditionally,
higher education was referred to as a body of knowledge
and of processes. Today, community and junior college
planners and administrators consider the sociology,
economics, psychology, and educational needs of the
peOple to be served, when developing programs aimed at

meeting their needs. Gleazer (1973, p. 217) considered

124
it a basic requirement of community colleges that they
"probe the community for program-bearing data, and then
possesstfluacapacity to interpret the data correctly."

The next futuring process which appeared to be
widely used was, efforts to examine alternatives open
for future development and engage in dialogue designed
to create shared 'images' of the future of the college.
One hundred and fifty-nine of the respondents said they
practiced this futuring activity. It was rated nation-
ally at 6.1 on the unit interval scale. ‘

.The data suggested that a substantial number of
community and junior college administrators were engaged
in this futuring activity. The importance may be gauged
when it was considered that 3.1 percent of the community
and junior college administrators rated it as "very
important" on a Likert Scale of one to five, with five
being the highest value. Another 62 percent rated it
three and four. While the statistic is impressive, some
caution is needed in determining how this translates
into goal, mission statements, and other planning docu-
ments.

Another futuring process which was used and
identified as fourth in importance was, consensus-
seeking techniques such as Delphi. More than half of
the community and junior college administrators who

responded were engaged in this activity at present.

125
From a national perspective, this activity was rated at
6.2 on a unit scale. All but two regions reported it
at or above six on the unit interval scale and regard-
less of community college size, it was not rated at
less than six. The activity was engaged in at the
present and it enjoyed solid support in terms of its
importance. Like the designing and creation of shared
images, caution is appropriate in interpreting this
result as very hopeful.

The last of five futuring processes was the
writing of scenarios. Very few community and junior
college administrators were presently engaged in this
activity. To be specific, only 16 percent were pre-
sently engaged in this process. The nation rated it as
not important "at all." Eight of the ten regions rated
it similarly, as well as the community colleges, irre-
gardless of size.

The support for scenario writing in the litera-
ture was strong. Jantsch (1969, p. 180) pointed out
several essential characteristics of scenario writing.
It is logical and sequential. The purpose is not pre-
diction but systematic exploration of "branching points
dependent on critical choices." Vanston, et al (1977,
pp. 159-62) added "plausibility," "self-consistency,"
"inclusion of all critical relevant factors," and "sim—

ilarity to other scenarios in form and scope."

126

Almost as important as determining that the char-
acteristics for scenario generation was present, was the
determination that qualified personnel are available for
generating the scenario.

The five futuring processes, when looked at as
a whole, appeared to fall into two categories. The two
categories were arbitrarily established, but that did
not appear to do any violence to the data. The two
categories were: (1) periodic and specific activities
to identify major institutional strengths and areas for
improvement; and specific periodic effort to identify
social and community trends which may have an impact on
college development; and (2) the examination of alterna-
tives Open for future development and the designing and
creation of shared images of the college; the use of
consensus techniques in the establishment and recording
of long-term priorities for college development; and
scenario writing.

It could be argued that category two should be
divided into two categories with scenarios forming the
third category. If that were done, it could be argued
that little substantive difference existed between cate-
gories one and two. But this position could not be sup-
ported by the literature. The literature showed, though

not the data, that the elements in category one were

127
elements which were long associated with long-range
planning and credentialing.

A similar situation did not exist with respect
to category two, the designing and creation of images,
the use of consensus techniques for the establishment
and recording of long-term priorities and scenario
writing. These materials were of a later historical
period and are just gradually becoming part of the tools
which community junior college administrators use for
planning, policy development, and goal setting.

On another level, category two contained the
elements which gave conventional planning a broadened
base and a truly futuristic approach. CategOry two
makes use of the planner's examined values, alternative
solutions, relationships, anticipates genuinely differ-
ent futures, and places considerable emphasis on unin-
tended consequences (Shane, 1973, p. 2).

Category two, with its emphasis on scenario
writing, required that a degree of expertise and credi-
bility in scenario development be available to community
college administrators. This requirement could be met
by having expertise on the staff or faculty or by
obtaining it elsewhere. The likelihood that either con-
dition could or would be met was not very high. For
example, community college administrators, policy devel-

opers and planners have begun to appreciate the

128

importance of an institutional research capability. So
important was this felt to be that over the last decade
the 0.5. Department of Education, through its Basic
Institutional Development Program (BIDP) and its
Advanced Institutional Development Program (AIDP) have
assisted two- and four-year colleges in developing this
capability as part of their management and planning
tool. But in spite of this effort, the high cost of
developing such a capability slowed, if not prevented,
its development. Much of the work done in two-year col-
leges under institutional research is small and fledg-
ling. Much of the work is an add-on to teaching respons—
ibilities or to other staff duties and it is mostly not
treated as a priority. In a similar manner, scenario
writing requires patient cultivation and expertise. It
was not likely then, that one should find persons with
this skill flourishing in community and junior colleges.

Scenario writing requires an orientation to the
future. It requires the writer or group writing the
scenario to visualize what is going to happen in a step-
by-step manner. That 81 percent of community and junior
colleges were not presently engaged in this activity,
and that eight of the ten regions and all of the col-
leges when grouped according to size, did not rate scen-
ario writing as important, suggested at least two

things. On the one hand, the data suggested that

129
community and junior college administrators, planners
and policy makers may be in need of education or staff
development training with respect to the value and
importance of scenario writing. On the other hand, the
absence of scenario writing as a primary tool in the
community and junior college futuring kit suggested
that a great deal of what was passed off as futuring
may very well be some approach to traditional planning
and development.
Present goal priorities

The 221 respondents identified the top three
goal statements for present priorities as follows:

(1) college transfer programs which enable students to
work towards a four-year degree; (2) programs which pro-
vide writing, reading, and math skills necessary to
successfully undertake collegiate efforts; (3) counsel-
ling programs which assist persons in determining career
and other life goals. These programs were rated at
level seven and above on the unit interval scale.

These priorities were held by community and
junior colleges for at least two decades. Priority
four, accessibility to college programs, including those
who cannot attend on campus, was a more recent addition
to priorities of community and junior colleges.

When colleges were grouped according to size,

colleges grouped as small chose the same three

130

priorities but added three others. They were as fol-
lows: (l) manpower programs which provided career and
economic development; (2) accessibility to college pro-
grams; and (3) short-term community service programs.
Colleges grouped as large eliminated counselling pro-
grams which assist persons in determining career and
other life goals, and narrowed their top priorities to
five.

Colleges grouped as medium chose the same prior-
’ities as colleges grouped as small except they added
programs which emphasize services to minority groups and
homemakers who want to enter or re-enter the work force.

Underlying these goal priorities rests a number
of assumptions held by the American people about educa-'
tion. These are as follows: (1) college and creden-
tialing are ways to achieve the good life (Monroe, 1972,
p. 382); (2) reading, writing, and mathematics are
essential to college and career and to responsible
citizen participation in this democracy; (3) where
evidence exists of unpreparedness for either assumption
one or two or both, remediation must be provided;
(4) need for a strong on—going egalitarianism; and
(5) a commitment to the economic development of people
and the community.

The study also provided a profile of goal state-

ments which community and junior colleges considered

131
low priority or of no priority at the present. The list
of these goal statements ranged from the 2.9 level to
zero on the unit interval scale and will be listed in
that order.

1. Programs in cooperation with other community
agencies and groups which assist in solving contemporary
community problems.

2. Continuing education programs for those in
health and other human service fields.

3. Instructional and other counseling
approaches which assist persons at various adult devel-
opment stages or transitions.

4. Individualized instruction through
approaches such as contract learning, television, and
audio-tutorial instruction.

5. Programs to assist homemakers to enter or
re-enter the work force.

6. Programs which emphasize services to minor-
ity groups.

7. Programs based on an international perspec-
tive.

8. Programs which enhance the ability of the
adult to perform adult life roles such as worker, citi-
zen, consumer, and family member.

9. Counseling programs which assist adults in

adapting to college life.

132
10. Results-oriented instruction based on speci-
fied learning outcomes.
11. Programs which assist people in preparing
for second careers.
12. Joint programming with labor unions, indus-
tries, and other community agencies or groups.

The low priority given these goal statements at
this time suggested a number of considerations. One was
that community and junior colleges recognized a variety
of educational needs of the communities they serve, but
that they were not part of their action agenda. This
study does not provide reasons for the limited set of
goals chosen by community and junior colleges, but it
does reflect some of the directions addressed in the
literature. For example, the educational programs com-
munity junior colleges do were directly related to
their funding and funding sources. That is to say,
community junior colleges were sensitive to financial
pressures from the local community and from the State.
The programs which were funded were more and more those
which were dictated by the State. In addressing this
situation, Cohen observed:

In determining the courses to be offered, state
level influences create pressures on the colleges,
some direct, others not. The legislature exerts
the most direct influence, followed by the state
Community College Board, various licensing agen-

cies and commissions, and professional associa-
tions. (1975, p. 2)

133
As if to underscore the weakness of the local commun-
ity's position, Cohen (1975, p. 10) asked, "How many
districts would still be running racially separate and
unequal two-year colleges if local option were para-
mount?"

The recognition by community and junior college
administrators that their institutions can only provide
limited responses to needs of the local community, moves
away from some of the wider implications of Bushnell's
(1973, p. 49) study which showed that presidents con-
sidered response to the needs of the local community
second only to serving the higher education needs of
youth from the local community. What appears to be
operative is not what a president desires to do, but
what a president may do or does in the face of limited
financing from the State. This may go far to explain
why many colleges have not followed such calls to action
as, "If community colleges want to be in the forefront
in the 1970's, they need to re-focus their efforts to
respond to the needs of older people rather than recent
high school graduates, who will probably go to college
anyway" (Gleazer, 1973, p. 216). Program funding
appeared to be aimed at some very old and established
forms of programming. Efforts to secure greater funding
will be complicated and will be met with intense resist-

tance from other community agencies of the local

134

government which are competing for those funds.

A second consideration which may be derived
from an interpretation of the data was that instruction
at the community and junior college level was people—
intensive or conventional. This was not surprising
because in many ways, the community and junior college,
while striving to develop an identity of its own, still
strives after much that is four-year college. The low
priority assigned to individualized instruction through
approaches such as contract learning, and audio-
tutorial instruction, may reflect the "fear that tech-
nology may dominate and dehumanize learning” (Evans
and Neagley, 1973, p. 102). Other fears include
"imposition of State or national systems of education,
with standardized curricula supplied to all colleges
via television or other electronic means, loss of jobs
to the electronic media or domination by the univer-
sities" (Knoell and McIntyre, 1974, pp. 91-92). What-
ever the reasons, the data suggested that community and
junior college administrators were reluctant to identify
electronic media for instructional purposes as a high
priority.

Another factor which the study revealed was that
community and junior colleges generally do no consider
addressing minority group educational needs as a present

priority. This finding was somewhat of a surprise when

135
the educational needs of racial minorities were found
to be so well documented. A decade ago Crossland
(1971, p. 99) observed,
. . . despite impressive gains in the 1960's ever
greater efforts will be required in the future to
remove the barriers that restrict the entry of
Black Americans, Mexican Americans, and Puerto
Rican and American Indian youth into higher edu-
cation.

Reflecting on the increased numbers of racial
minorities enrolled in community and junior colleges,
Gleazer (1973, pp. 21-22) saw some encouragement in the
numbers enrolled but felt that it was a poor showing
for an institution which, in the View of some, had a
significant responsibility to the "needs of the Black,
Spanish-speaking, and Indian populations." He concluded
this observation by saying, "I am convinced that
improvements of opportunities for minority persons must
become a matter of first priority in America's community
colleges." An interpretation of the data suggested that
the educational needs of racial minorities have not yet
become a matter of first priority for America's commun-
ity and junior colleges.

A fourth consideration was that community and
junior colleges do not have as a present priority, pro-
grams which emphasize an international perspective.

Five of the ten regions rated programs with an interna-

tional perspective at zero on a one-to-ten-point scale.

The colleges when grouped according to size (small,

136

medium, and large), also rated them at zero. Except for
regions one, two, and seven, where such programs were
rated at levels 4.8, 4.9, and 3.2 respectively, commun-
ity junior colleges almost unanimously rejected interna-
tional programming as a present priority. What was the
probable reasons for such a condition? The reasons
appear to rest in the nature and purposes of the insti-
tution. From the very earliest times the junior col-
lege, the forerunner of the community junior college,
was associated with the preparation of students for.
four-year colleges (Thornton, 1960, p. 47). At succes-
sive stages, the junior college expanded to include
occupational education, adult education, and community
services. It was not until the junior college exper-
ienced that last expansion that the name expanded to
community junior college (Thornton, 1960, pp. 50-55).

As the name implies, the community junior col-
lege is a product of the American community. Evans and
Neagley (1973), pp. ix and x), observed that "it is the
extension of opportunities for education to all citizens
who can profit from the experience." The concept was
strengthened by another concept, "Open Door," and the
great dream of higher education seemed to be possible
and within reach of every community resident. The idea
of community and college became so entertwined that

Medsker (1960, p. 16) observed,

137
. . the term connotes a close interrelationship
of the college and the life of the community: the
college looks to the community for suggestions in
program planning, and the community looks to the
college for many different services to many differ-
ent peOple.

The emphasis of the community college was local.
It was never distant, far away, or international. Even
if one accepted the social purpose for community junior
colleges of sorting and screening students for four-year
colleges and thereby ensuring that "higher educational
systems will continue to underpin the social status quo"
(Zwerling, 1976, p. 67), one would still come to the
conclusion that though the impact was national in scope,
yet the operational base was the local community.

A fifth consideration was that community junior
colleges considered "results-oriented instruction based
on specified learning outcomes," a low priority. Any
interpretation of this response would be somewhat lim-
ited and tentative, but a few observations are appro-
priate. Given the established purposes of community
junior colleges, it would seem out of step with those
purposes to place "results-oriented instruction based
on specified learning outcomes" other than a low prior—
ity.

Medsker (1960, pp. 51-52; 72-74) identified the

purposes of community junior colleges as providing edu-

cational programs which meet the needs of transfer, and

138
terminalstudentsas well as adult education and commun-
ity services.

Thornton (1960, p. 59) identified the purposes
of community junior colleges after a rather careful
review as,

. . . (l) occupational education of post high school

level, (2) general education for all categories of

students, (3) transfer for pre-professional educa-

tion, (4) community service, including education

for adults, and (5) the counseling and guidance of

students.
»Cohen and Associates (1975, p. 62) pressed the four
categories into three. These were described as "col-
lege-parallel," "occupational," and "non-traditional"
programs. Non-traditional included adult education,
community services, and special programs to other edu-
cational needy groups in the community. Evans and
Neagley (1973, p. 99) define community junior colleges
as "comprehensive," which offer the "following programs
among others,--day and evening, on and off campus, year
round: developmental or remedial, transfer, technical,
and para-professional." Here there were different
descriptions but the substance of the community junior
college program was still about the same. The new
ingredient was that colleges offering programs as
described above were now called "comprehensive." It was
shown that the transfer program was and is still a major

focus of the community junior college program, but so is

terminal education, adult education, and community

139
services. The balanced approach to the many different
educational needs of the publics the community junior
college serves was described as "comprehensive."

Gleazer (1973, p. 237) identified comprehensive-
ness as one characteristic among many that community
junior colleges should strive for, so as to attract the
funding necessary to their existence.

The community junior college has always had an
interest in developing the whole person rather than a
part of the person. Knoell and McIntyre (1974, p. 112),
emphatically expressed this when they observed,

. . . probably the most important characteristic
which distinguishes the community college from the
technical institute is its paramount concern with
individual needs and interests. Community col-
leges are interested in educating whole persons,
not simply the labor force portion of the person.

The finding that community junior colleges
regard results-oriented instruction based on specified
learning outcomes as a low priority was in keeping with
its image of itself as a comprehensive educational
institution interested in the whole person. This image
of itself was supported in the literature.

A sixth finding was that community junior col-
leges did not consider joint programming with labor
unions, industry, and other community groups and agen-
cies as a present priority. Looking at the nation as a

whole, this item ranked the lowest on a unit interval

scale of zero to ten. It was ranked at zero. Only

140
three regions rated it between level three and 6.9 on
the interval scale, and only one rated it above the 6.9
level. When community junior colleges were looked at
according to size, each group--small, medium, and
large--rated it between levels three and 6.9 on the
interval scale.

This finding was of particular interest because
as far back as 1974 Pifer described a new community
junior college function as being that of coordinating
agent for all other community service agencies. He
said that colleges

. . . should start thinking about themselves from
now on only secondary as a sector of higher edu-
cation and regard their primary role community
leadership. . . . Not least they can become the
hub of a network of institutions and community
agencies--the high schools, industry, the church,
voluntary agencies, youth groups, even the prison
system and the courts--utilizing their educational
resources and, in turn, becoming a resource for
them.
Gleazer (1974, p. 4), strongly supported the above posi-
tion and added, "The mission of the American Association
of Community and Junior Colleges is to provide an organi-
zation for national leadership of community-based post-
secondary education." This appears to be new ground
that community junior college administrators were being
urged to take by their national spokesmen. Cohen (1975,

p. 81) observed, "the term community service is in the

process of being modified to community development."

141

It could be that both Pifer and Gleazer were
heartened by Harlacher (1969, pp. 8-9), who saw the com-
munity service function of community junior colleges
"as a relative new segment of American education, . . .
unencumbered with tradition, unfettered by a rigid his-
tory, eager for adventure." Hence the call to expan-
sion or modification of the community services concept
to community development.

This study revealed that community junior col-
leges have said no to the call, or were not overly
enthusiastic about community development.

Why have community and junior college admini-
strators responded in such a lackluster manner? What
were the kinds of problems they were faced with? The
study itself did not provide the answers, but the liter-
ature addressed some of the problems which may account
for administrative inactivity.

More than a decade ago, Harlacher (1969, p. 90)
identified community services development in community
and junior colleges. He wrote, "The community college
will increasingly utilize its catalytic capacities to
assist its community in the so1ution of basic educa-
tional, economic, political and social problems." The
problems which confront community college administrators
as they consider community development, appeared to be

numerous. A full listing of such problems will not be

142
undertaken, but enough to provide some reasons why com-
munity college administrators were reticent about com-
munity development will be attempted. The problems were
as follows: (1) the recognition that community service/
community development programs were recognized as less
than equal to transfer, occupational, and counseling and
guidance functions (Cohen, 1975, p. 83); (2) the plural-
ity of communities which the community college serves;
(3) limited resources; and (4) lack of strong evidence
to support that community development is possible.

Cohen (1975, p. 83) argued very persuasively
that community services/community development programs
are recognized as less than equal to transfer, occupa-
tional, counseling and guidance functions. Elsner
(1974, pp. 19-23) supported this position, at least in
the area of finance. When funds are available community
services/community development may flourish a little,
but when funds are tight, it is the nontraditional that
goes first.

A similar conclusion may be drawn from another
source, Project Focus, a nationwide survey conducted by
the American Association of Community Junior Colleges
in 1971. Ninety community junior college presidents,
replying to the question, "Respond to the needs of the
local community," placed it fourth. However, when that

question was articulated into the specific goals of,

143
"help solve social, economic, or political problems in
the immediate geographical area," and, "help formulate
programs in public policy areas," for example, "pollu-
tion control," the specific goals were ranked almost at
the bottom--twenty-third and twenty-fourth--in a list of
twenty-six questions. Faculty members ranked the same
general goal third, but ranked the specific goals elev-
enth and twelfth. Students ranked the general goal
eighth, and the specific formulations similar to the
ranking the faculty gave (Bushnell, 1973, pp. 50-55).
The conclusion appears to be inescapable: community
development is important, but not very important, to
community junior colleges.

The second problem facing community junior col-
lege administrators was the plurality of communities
the community college serves. In considering this
situation, Cohen (1973, p. 84) observed that the com—
munity college district is marked more by its diversity
than by its similarity. The question of serving dissim-
ilar communities raises questions about who will be
served and where the resources will come from to serve
them.

Monroe (1972, pp. 31-32) observed, "In serving
the community, the community college needs to guard
against the danger of dissipating its resources by try-

ing to perform so many different services for the

144
community that it may not be able to perform its primary
task of providing students with quality education."
Even if the question of resources could be solved, a
major question might still be, how far would the college
constitutents allow the college to go in providing non-
traditional education?

The question of limited financial resources has
been a major problem in community development. It was
of major concern in the American Association of Commun-
ity Junior College's nationwide questionnaire to presi-
dents of community junior colleges. The first question
was, "If your campus financial resources (operating and
capital budgets) were to vary over the next ten years in
the indicated manner (assuming that enrollment stayed
the same), what priority would you assign to each of
the activities below?" (Bushnell, 1973, p. 200). The
question of priorities was discussed in the above para—
graphs. What is of significance here is that financial
resources will to a large degree determine what will be
done in community development programming. Gleazer
(1973, p. 147) observed this when he said, "Of all the
problems we face, finance heads the list." If community
development in community junior colleges is off to a
rocky start, as it appears to be, then there is nothing
at this time to suggest that financial conditions are

going to get better.

145
The fourth problem which appeared to affect com-

munity development was lack of strong evidence that it
was possible. Whenever a new image is created or a goal
established, it must possess certain characteristics.
Among those characteristics are believability and attain-
ability. That is to say, people must believe in the
image or the goal and they must believe that it is attain-
able. Cohen (1973, p. 89) noted,

A major reason that the community development func-

tion has not reached parity with instruction--or even

with student guidance-~is that although'its impor-

tance has been noted, the philosophical base on which

it stands has not been well articulated.
For example, what does McClusky (1974, p. 22) mean when
he said, "all who desire and need to learn, whatever that
learning may be" are a proper clientele of community
junior colleges? How inclusive is the need to learn?
Must the college teach them whatever they need to learn?
Does it include, as Cohen (1974, p. 90) inquired, to be
taught courses in "fire-bomb making," "safecracking," or
principles of avoidance when "shoplifting"? It seemed
appropriate to conclude that it would be absurd to expect
the college to teach such things, but it does serve to
point up the openendedness of the goal.

Bushnell (1973, p. 127) seemed unaware that com-

munity junior colleges cannot address all the educational

needs of the community when he observed, "A focus on the

problems of the community and the need to serve the 'new'

146
student more effectively has brought the community col-
leges into center stage as the potential mechanism for
meeting community and individual student needs." No
assistance was provided about where the financial
resources were going to come from to accomplish this
task or what elements peculiar to the task that commun-
ity junior colleges should perform.

Gleazer (1973, pp. 227-28) seemed to subscribe
to the lack of clarity about what educational needs can
Abe met by community junior colleges and who should
decide those needs. He.said,

To realize the full potential of being where the
action is, the community college will want to
reform its efforts in the 1970's. It will need
to consider older people as well as youth in its
programming efforts. A wide range of services
will be needed. Present arrangements for meeting
the needs of all the people will need to be
altered.
This appeared to be somewhat awkward, when prior to that
he observed,

It appears that society is inclined to give com-
munity colleges--and that community colleges are
generally ready to accept--a large and difficult
assignment. But for community colleges to provide
the services needed, financial support must be
assured. . . . More basic perhaps is the need for
society to understand better what community col-
leges are capable of doing, to decide more pre-
cisely what it wishes community colleges to do,
and then to make a commitment to support the col-
lege in that work. (1973, p. 177)

The demands of the community seem to require

from community and junior colleges, not so much a ready

acceptance but a disciplined one. The community might

147
better understand, if they were told clearly, what edu-
cational needs community and junior colleges can meet
and those they cannot meet. Cohen and associates (1975,
pp. 90-91) observed, "The point is, that the debate on
community development has not been opened. . . . In
brief, the colleges' 'new mission' stands on an old
shaky base." -

Priority goal statements 1985

 

In this section of the questionnaire community
junior college administrators were asked to prioritize
nineteen goal statements for 1985.“ When the ten regions
were looked at as a whole, twelve goal statements were
found between levels seven and ten on the interval
scale, five at levels three through 6.9, and two at the
zero through 2.9 level.

The two at the lowest level were as follows:

(1) accessibility to college programs, including those
who cannot attend on-campus programs, and (2) programs
which emphasize services to minority groups. Access-
ibility to college programs was considered under "pres-
ent priority," a "medium priority," but as college
administrators looked to the future, it fell to "low
priority." This study does not offer any explanation
why, but in light of much of the above discussions,

accessibility tends to require increasingly more

148
financial resources, which at this time appeared to be
difficult to acquire.

Programs to minority groups were considered as
a low priority for the present, and college administra-
tors expressed themselves as seeing this program as a
low priority for the future. Apparently the conditions
which exist in the present for placing this program as
a low priority were also projected into the future,
thereby guaranteeing it a low priority.

Twelve programs were considered of high prior-
ity. They were as follows: (1) instructional and
counseling approaches which assist persons at various
adult development stages or transitions; (2) college
transfer programs; (3) writing, reading, and math skill
programs necessary for college; (4) accessibility to
on- and off-campus college programs; (5) community
development; (6) programs to assist persons in preparing
for second careers; (7) community services programs;

(8) individualized instruction, utilizing contracts,
television, and audio-tutorial instruction; (9) results
oriented instruction; (10) pre-retirement and retirement
programs; (11) continuing education for health and human
services; and (12) counseling programs which assist
adults in adapting to college life. The first four of
the twelve programs were rated at levels 9.1 to ten on

the unit interval scale.

149

When looking at present priorities, community
and junior college administrators rated twelve programs
as "low priority." If a forward look were taken, it
would be noted that community and junior college admin-
istrators rated twelve programs as of "high priority"
for 1985. Eight of the twelve programs were considered
of "low priority" when looked at for the present. If
community college administrators were optimistic about
the future, one must conclude that,tflmnzoptimism extends
to the identification of more financial resources, more
decision making at the community level about programs,
and greater freedom from state legislative control in
course offerings.

The list of twelve programs was also instructive
because of its omissions. Omitted from the list of
twelve and relegated to the lowest priority in 1985 were
programs for minorities, accessibility to college, and
programs to assist homemakers to enter and re-enter the
work force. These omissions were particularly difficult
to explain since they were unanticipated. The diffi-
culty stems also from the fact that community junior
college literature is replete with exhortations from
community junior college leaders regarding the purposes
of community junior colleges. Among the many purposes
are programs for minorities and accessibility to col-

lege.

150

The four programs which rated highest among the
regions on a national profile were as follows:

(1) instructional and counseling approaches which assist
persons at various adult development stages or transi-
tions; (2) college transfer programs which enable stu-
dents to work towards a four-year degree; (3) programs
which provide adults with the writing, reading, and math
skills necessary to successfully undertake collegiate
efforts; (4) counseling programs which assist persons

to determine career and other life goals. These prior-
ity goals statements were supported at levels 9.1
through ten on the interval scale. The first-mentioned
program was the only one of the four which was not a
"present priority" at levels seven through ten on the
interval scale. The other three programs are esta-
blished ones and represent no change in direction of
community junior colleges for two or more decades. In
this sense community junior college administrators
mostly see a future which will be very much like the
present.

A future very much like the present suggests
that the state legislatures will continue to determine
what courses will or will not be funded. The State will
continue to increasingly control programming. Con-
versely, less and less control will be expected at the

community level. Unless other sources of funding are

151
secured, little improvement can be expected in community
development. Where financial resources are difficult
to obtain, any move in the direction of community devel-‘
opment by community junior colleges could alienate other
human service agencies in the community as competition
for dollars becomes intense.

Unlike the national profile and most of the
other regions, regions one, nine, and ten had interest-
ing characteristics which merit some discussion. Region
one was unlike the national profile in distribution and
priorities. At level seven through ten on the interval
scale, region one had four priorities, while the
national profile had four grouped between nine and ten
on the interval scale. The national profile priorities
consisted of programs which for the most part were very
traditional. (Df the four programs in region one's
priorities, two of them focused on presenting services
to entirely new populations. These were as follows:

(1) programs which enhance the ability of the adult to
perform adult life roles, such as worker, citizen, con-
sumer, and family member; and (2) programs for retired
persons and those preparing for retirement. In a simi-
lar manner, region nine had as its primary priority,
college transfer programs, while the next two prioriv
ties consisted of programs which provide services to

new populations. They were as follows: (1) programs in

152
cooperation with other community agencies and groups
which assist in solving contemporary community problems;
and (2) programs which assist people in preparing for
second careers. Region ten was unlike the national pro-
file and regions one and nine in choosing a new popula—
tion as its primary priority and relegating traditional
programs to the 6.6 through seven level on the interval
scale. The new population region ten chose to serve
was assisting homemakers to enter or re-enter the work
force.‘

The data suggested that the entire community
college community was not unified about what kinds of
programming will take priority in the future. For the
most part traditional community junior college programs
were projected for the future; but some regions were
reaching out to combine some traditional programs with
programs that reach out to serve new populations--pro-
grams to serve the aged, homemakers, and the areas of
community development. The evidence was not conclusive,
and it seemed far too sketchy to be considered a trend,
but it is worth watching because these were some of the
areas that Gleazer, Bushnell, Harlacher, Knoell, and
McIntyre, to cite a few, considered to be growth areas
for the community college.

When community junior colleges were grouped

according to size, small colleges projected traditional

153
community junior college programs as their first prior-
ities; medium-size colleges did likewise, but also
included programs in cooperation with other community
agencies and groups which assist in solving contemporary
community problems (community development) and programs
to assist homemakers enter and re-enter the work force.
Large colleges chose college transfer programs and
instructional and counseling approaches which assist
persons at various adult development stages or transi-
tions. Fourteen other programs were grouped between
levels five and seven on the unit interval scale.

All colleges when grouped according to size,
also placed as their lowest priorities, accessibility to
college programs, and programs which emphasize services
to minority groups. If this projection should hold
true, community junior colleges would be abandoning two
areas which were widely considered part of their mission
and purpose. More tragic would be the loss to countless
minority people, the opportunity (accessibility) and
the program services needed to improve their lot in what
claims to be an egalitarian society.

Pearsons Product Moment:
social trends

 

A study of the data revealed that there was not
a great deal of unanimity among the regions with respect
to social trends. There were correlations between

regions three and four, three and five, and three and

154
ten. Other correlations were between regions four and
five, five and ten, and one and nine. There was no
correlation between four and ten. At the high level of
the interval scale and common to these correlations was
the social trend, energy shortages. Common to these
correlations at the middle level of the unit interval
scale was the social trend, changes in family life. At
the lower end of the unit interval scale and also common
to these correlations were the social trends, feelings
'of alienation, loss of personal control, and from gov-
ernmental services‘to self-reliance.

What appeared to be a common concern among
regions three, four, five, and ten, was energy short-
ages, as the primary concern, followed by changes in
family life as a moderate concern. Of little or no con-
cern were the trends cited at the lower level of the
unit interval scale.

Other correlations were between regions four
and five, five and ten, and one and nine. As in the
above correlations, the data revealed that one common
element to these correlations at the high level of the
unit interval scale was energy shortages, followed at
the middle level by changes in family life, and at the
lower level, by feelings of alienation, loss of personal
control, and from governmental services to self-reli-

ance. What emerges was that energy shortages was seen

155
as a regional and national trend. This corroborates
other data which were discussed before. At the other
end of the interval scale, feelings of alienation, loss
of personal control, and from governmental services to
self-reliance, emerged as unimportant regional and
national social trends.

Apart from these common elements which run
through the several regions, each region had its special
kind of image of social trends at the different levels
of the unit scale. This made each region unique and
worthy of special attention to the community college
administrator, planner, and program developer.

Images: feasibility

 

While the data revealed that the image most
feasible to community colleges was the community-based
college, there was also evidence of a great deal of dis-
similarity among the regions. Regions one and seven
were negatively correlated and so were regions three
and nine. Positively correlated were regions eight and
ten. No correlations were found among any of the other
regions.

The dissimilarity among regions one and seven
was their different emphases. At the high end of the
unit interval scale, region one identified the most
feasible image of the community college as the life-

based college, and region seven identified it as the

156

development-based college. At the low end of the unit
interval scale, regions one and seven identified the
community college image least feasible respectively as
the development-based college, and the consumer-based
college. Other dissimilarities existed between regions
three and nine. Region three rated in the uppermost
part of the unit interval scale (between levels 9.4 and
ten on the interval scale), three images of high feas-
ibility. Listed in rank order were the following
images: the development-based college, the community-
based college, and the consumer-based college. Region
nine considered these same images but ranked them quite
differently. The image of the development-based college
was ranked as the least feasible. That is to say, it
was ranked at zero on the unit interval scale; the com-
munity-based college was ranked at the 4.2 level, and
the consumer-based college was ranked at the 5.8 level.

These dissimilarities confirm what has already
been identified, that is, vigorous competition was going
on among the regions with respect to the most feasible
image of the community college.

Images: desirability

 

Two positive correlations were identified with
respect to the most desirable image of the community
college: regions one and four and regions three and

nine. Regions one and four were correlated and the

157

profile presented was suggestive of vigorous competition
among images. Five of the six images, region one could
choose from were placed at levels 7.8 through ten on
the unit interval scale, while region four placed five
of its six choices between levels 6.1 and ten. A simi—
lar profile was cast by regions three and nine. Region
three placed five of its six choices for desirable image
of the community college between levels 8.4 and ten on
the unit interval scale. Region nine placed five of
its six choices between 7.6 and ten on the scale. The
close proximity of images to each other suggested that
images may be complementing and supplementing each other
and could in time supplant one another.
Futuring processes

Two positive and two negative correlations were
identified with respect to futuring processes. Regions
one and eight were negatively correlated. They were
in agreement on the most important futuring process,
namely, periodic and specific activities to identify
major institutional strengths and areas for improvement.
But they identified different processes as the least
important. Region one considered scenarios the least
important futuring process, while region eight identi-
fied the least important futuring process as establish-
ing and recording long-term priorities for college

development (using Delphi or other consensus techniques).

158
Apart from this, region one ranked four of its five
choices in the high part of the scale, while region
eight ranked three of its five choices around the mid-
point of the scale. A similar negative correlation was
identified between regions five and seven.

Regions one and ten exhibited a high degree of
correlation and regions four and nine were perfectly
correlated (both of these correlations were quite simi-
lar). Regions four and nine identified periodic acti-
vities to identify major institutional strengths and
areas for improvement as the most important futuring
process. Both considered scenario writing as the least
important futuring process. The other futuring proces-
ses were grouped toward the upper end of the unit inter-
val scale.

The negative correlations were indicative of
the dissimilarity among these regions about the impor-
tance and unimportance of various futuring processes.
The high correlations between regions one and ten and
regions four and nine exhibited two conditions. In
regions one and ten the futuring processes were arranged
in approximately the same order, but was considered of
different importance by each region. The other condi-
tion exhibited by regions four and nine was one in which
both regions arranged the futuring processes in a rela-E

tively similar manner, and gave them about equal

159
importance, suggesting that there was no agreement even
among the regions which were highly correlated about the
ranking and importance of futuring processes.
Present goal priorities

There were two correlations in present goal
priority, the series of nineteen statements on the
questionnaire which community college administrators
were required to prioritize. The correlations were as
follows: (1) regions one and ten were weakly correv
lated, and (2) regions five and nine were strongly cor-
related.

A look at the interval scale of regions one and
ten showed that between levels seven and ten on the unit
interval scale, region one had two goal priorities and
region ten had one priority. The former had college
transfer programs which enable students to work towards
a four-year degree, and programs which provide adults
with writing, reading, and math skills necessary to suc-
cessfully undertake collegiate programs. The latter had
as its priority, programs to assist homemakers to enter
or re-enter the work force.

Another comparison between regions one and ten
was made at the zero to 2.9 level on the interval scale.
Region one had three goals and region ten had eight.
Region ten had only one goal statement of the eight which

was common to region one.

160

The other correlation between regions five and
nine were much stronger and more similar. At level
seven through ten on the interval scale, region five
had six goal statements and region nine had seven. Five
of the goal statements were common to each region. At
the lower end of the scale a similar situation existed.
Each region had only one goal statement and it was the
same in each case.

The data suggested that there was some unanimity
among the regions about present goal priorities. How-
ever, this was not widespread and there existed a great
deal of diversity among the regions about present goal
priorities.

1985 goal priorities

 

When community and junior college administrators
were asked to rank nineteen goal statements as priori-
ties for 1985, a number of correlations were found. A
correlation was found between regions one and three;
among regions two, five, eight, and nine; between
regions three and five, between regions four and six,
and between regions five and eight. Region two had
something in common with three other regions, but these
four regions were not correlated to each other. A simi-
lar situation was found among the other correlations.

What the data suggested was that some regions

found more in common with each other about what the

161
future would be like with respect to their priorities.
But even among those regions which had priorities in
common, there was yet a great deal of difference. The
differences suggested that the regions were responding
to trends or social forces which were uniquely their

own.

Discriminant Functions: Trends

No discriminant function was found which sep-
arated the regions on any of the eighteen variables on
social trends at the p < .05 level. The ten regions
acted uniformly as a group. This was not the case when
community colleges were grouped according to size.

Community junior colleges grouped as large rated
variable seven of social trends, tendency towards cen-
tralized government control, more positively than did
small or medium-sized colleges. In a similar manner,
colleges grouped as large rated variables one, eighteen,
and ten more positively than did small- or medium-sized
colleges, but less positively than they rated variable
seven. The variables respectively were as follows:
diversification of life styles, from a work-oriented to
a leisure-oriented society, and adult development cul-
ture .

Gleazer (1973, p.129) observed that the state
legislature was controlling much of the programming and

course offerings which are done by community junior

162

colleges. The data suggest that colleges grouped as
large were managing the tendency towards centralized
government control much more comfortably than colleges
grouped as small or medium. In a similar manner, large
colleges appeared to be managing much better than col-
1eges grouped as small and medium in areas such as the
diversification of life styles, the change from a work-
oriented to a leisure-oriented society, and what was
described as the adult development culture. Bushnell
(1973, p. 126) considered community junior colleges in a
unique position to‘deal.with the shifting values of our
postindustrial society and the preparation of education
for a consumer society. The indication of the data was
that colleges grouped as large were doing better in
these areas than colleges grouped as small and medium.

Community junior colleges grouped as small and
medium ranked three social trend variables negative.
They were as follows: (1) advances in science and tech—
nology, (2) changes in the nature of work, and (3) from
conformity to individual self-expression. The last
variable was rated more negative than any of the other
variables.

The negative rating of these variables may
express fears which were pronounced among colleges
grouped as small and medium as opposed to colleges

grouped as large. Knoell and McIntyre (1974, p. 91)

163
identified a fear by the education profession of
advances in science and technology. These advances
relate to the use of electronic media to carry
standardized curricula which could be supplied to all
colleges. The fear could well be related to the loss
of jobs.

Another fear may be changes in the nature of
work. For small and medium colleges, this fear may be
expressed in movement away from traditional curricula,
as in transfer programs to new curricula which focus on
individual ability and egalitarian principles (Cross,
1974, p. 156). Moving in this direction was moving into
the unknown, along a path which was untried, and by its
very nature, posed many threats.

The change in the nature of work and the empha-
sis on development of individual abilities may produce
what Knoell and McIntyre called a change from "universal
access to a comprehensive community college campus--to
the goal of providing universal access to comprehensive
post-secondary education” (1974, p. 90). This kind of
change would precipitate new programs, increased and
improved staffs and facilities with a wide range of
functions which are not presently in existence. Change
perceived in this magnitude could pose some threat to

small- and medium-sized colleges, while large colleges

164
may adapt to such changing conditions in a more positive
manner.

Discriminant functions:
futuringgprocesses

Community junior colleges grouped as large rated
variables one, four, and two of futuring processes more
positive than did community colleges grouped as small
and medium. The three variables in the order in which
they were listed were as follows: (1) a specific perio-
dic effort to identify social and community trends which
may have an impact on college development; (2) establish-
ing and recording long-term priorities for college
development; and (3) establishing and recording long-
term priorities for college development (using Delphi or
other consensus-seeking techniques).

This finding was not a surprise and was very
consistent with what one would expect to find to a
greater extent in colleges grouped as large, than in col-
leges grouped as small or medium. It was not as if they
were the exclusive right of colleges grouped as large.
One would expect that the attention paid to those vari-
ables would in part be responsible for the colleges'
largeness, or size- The attention paid to these vari—
ables was a factor in the human and financial resources
of those colleges. An inference to be drawn from this
finding was that colleges grouped as small and medium

were strong on the three variables mentioned above, but

165

not quite as strong as were colleges grouped as large.

Community colleges grouped as small and medium
rated periodic specific activities to identify major
institutional strengths and areas for improvement, and
writing scenarios, more negatively than did community
colleges grouped as large. The finding did not tell
how much futuring activity was done. What it did was to
point at the perceived value of what futuring activity
was going on. With respect to the above two variables,
colleges grouped as large appeared a little stronger
than colleges grouped as small and medium. This could
be construed as consistent with expectation. The iden-
tification of major institutional strengths requires the
presence of a sophisticated faculty and administrative
staff. And much more sophistication will be needed by
a faculty and staff which generates scenarios. In both
of these matters one would expect to find that colleges
grouped as large would be in a stronger position than
colleges grouped as small and medium, especially with

respect to the generation of scenarios.

Summary: Discussion of Results
Unit interval scales were developed from the
generation of catscale values to analyze the responses
of 221 community and junior college respondents from ten
regions in the United States. The respondents were

asked to rate their expectation of how eighteen

166

identified social trends might impact on their college
in the next decade. The data reflected a national pro-
file which identified two social trends of prime import—
ance. They were as follows: (1) energy shortages, and
(2) advances in science and technology. Around the
middle of the interval scale were six social trends and
at the lower end of the scale there were ten social
trends. The latter were as follows: (1) diminution of
higher education certification as the means of job entry
and security; (2) changes in family life; (3) from a
work-oriented to a leisure-oriented society; (4) from
large-scale to small-scale technology; (5) from job
security to varied life experiences; (6) diversifica-
tion of life styles; (7) citizen participation in
decision making; (8) from conformity to individual self-
expression; (9) feelings of alienation and loss of per-
sonal control; and (10) from governmental services to
self-reliance.

In addition to the national profile there were
ten regional profiles. When looked at together or as a
whole, it was the ten regional profiles which produced
the national profile. The national profile was signifi-
cant in that it provided a general direction of how com-
munity and junior college administrators viewed the
social trends, energy shortages, and advances in science

and technology. A further significance was when

167
national social trends and regional social trends were
identical they re-enforced each other and were, there-
fore, of greater significance.

Just as national social trends had their own
significance, so did regional social trends. The
regional social trends were specific to their respective
regions. As such they were useful for policy develop-
ment, planning, and goal setting.

The importance attached to a particular social
trend was related to its force. For example, the impor-
tance given to energy shortages and advances in science
and technology was the result of its place on the unit
interval scale, while little or no importance was given
to the ten social trends which fell at the lower end
of the scale.

When community and junior colleges were grouped
according to size (small, medium, and large), all col-
leges considered the social trend, energy shortages, to
have a major impact upon them. Colleges grouped as
large and medium considered advances in science and tech-
nology to have a moderate impact on them, while colleges
grouped as small considered it to have a major impact
on them. The situation was reversed when colleges con-
sidered the social trend, tendency towards centralized
government. Colleges grouped as large considered this

trend to have a major impact on them, while colleges

168
grouped as small and medium considered that it might
have little or no impact on them. Colleges grouped as
large perceived that government will have more control
over their activities, while colleges grouped as small
and medium minimized this. The perception might be well
grounded, since the volume of funds sent to large col-
leges was greater than funds sent to colleges grouped
as small and medium.

When the data were further tested for Pearsons
Product Moment Correlation Coefficient, it was found
that there was not a great deal of unanimity among the
regions on social trends. There were correlations among
the regions one to each other, but not among them as a
group. For example, there was a correlation between
regions three and four, three and five, and three and
ten, but there was no correlation between regions three,
four, five, and ten. This re-enforces what was found
already, that regions were viewing social trends much in
their own manner. The importance of this reflected the
uniqueness of each region and indicated that the trends
were affecting the regions differently. Apart from
this, the information gained was useful to community
and junior college administrators for policy development
and planning.

When the regions were tested for a discriminant

function on the eighteen social trends, none was found.

169
The regions acted uniformly on social trends; that is,
there was no significant direction or grouping together.
However, when community and junior colleges were grouped
according to size, a discriminant function was found
with respect to social trends.

Community and junior colleges grouped as large
viewed more positively than did colleges grouped as
small and medium, tendency toward centralized government
control, diversification of life styles, from a work-
oriented to a leisure-oriented society, and adult devel-
opment culture. This suggests that colleges grouped as
large felt a greater degree of comfort in this changing
environment than did colleges grouped as small or
medium.

Three trends which community and junior colleges
grouped as negative were as follows: advances in sci-
ence and technology, changes in the nature of work, and
from conformity to individual self-expression. The
negative ranking of these trends may reflect fear of the
loss of jobs to the electronic media, and the develop-
ment of new non-traditional educational programs; areas
in which small- and medium-sized colleges might feel
quite vulnerable.

Future images

 

Future images were looked at from two points

of view, their desirability and their feasibility. The.

170
most feasible image of the future of the community col-
lege was that of the community-based college. A strong
competing image was the development-based college. The
characteristics which appeared to contribute to the com-
munity-based college's degree of feasibility were:
(1) the fusion of community and college, (2) the promise
for the present and the future; and (3) its mass appeal
to the educational needs of the people. It should be
noted that while the community-based college was the
most feasible imagecxfthe community college, it achieved
that distinction from only four of the ten regions, sug-
gesting that while that image now appeared secure, it
could be supplanted by other competing images or was
actively complemented by other future images.

The image of the college as a community-based
institution was also considered the most desirable by
four of the ten regions. In choosing this image, the
regions affirmed that it was attractive and worth seek-
ing for its beneficial effects. Other future images
competing for most desirable future image were as fol-
lows: life-based college,.and career-based college.
These images could in time supplant the image of the
community-based college, or may, in fact, while compet-
ing with it, supplement it. An indication of this may
be reflected by the manner in which college administra-

tors chose future images when grouped in colleges

171

according to size. When colleges were grouped according
to small, medium, and large, they unanimously chose the
image of the community-based college as the most desir-
able. However, when choosing the most feasible, col-
leges grouped as small chose the image of the community-
based college, while colleges grouped as medium and
large chose the image of the career-based college.

Pearsons Product Moment Correlation Coefficients
confirmed much of what was already known with respect
to the feasibility and desirability of future images of
the community college; that is, a great deal of dissim-
ilarity existed among the regions on both the feasibil-
ity and desirability of future images of the community
college.

Futuring processes

 

Community and junior college administrators
indicated that they engaged in all five futuring pro-
cesses listed in the questionnaire. The most heavily
engaged in futuring activity was that of periodic speci-
fic activities to identify major institutional strengths
and areas for improvement. The least engaged-in activ-
ity was the writing of scenarios. Eighty-nine percent
of the respondents engaged in the former and 16 percent
engaged in the latter and considered it not important
at all. Community and junior colleges expressed no dif-

ference between their engagement in present futuring

172
processes and the importance they attached to them.

There was some support for the idea that the
order in which community and junior college administra-
tors ranked futuring processes grew out of their famil-
iarity with those processes in their preparation for
certification and accreditating bodies. Similarly, the
low ranking given to consensus-seeking techniques such
as Delphi, as well as the low ranking given to scenario
writing, were the result of a slow introduction of the
ideas of image development and sharing, the use of con-
sensus-seeking techniques and the difficulties in find-
ing personnel in community college settings of acknow-
ledged quality in scenario writing.

When the data were submitted to Parsons Product
Moment Correlation Coefficient, there was no indication
that the regions rated the futuring processes as a group
or that several groups could be identified. This indi-
cated that the regions ranked the futuring processes
in their own unique manner and mostly different from
one another.

When the data were subjected to discriminant
analysis, colleges grouped as large were more positive
towards three futuring processes than were colleges
grouped as small and medium. The futuring processes
were as follows: (1) a specific periodic effort to

identify social and community trends which may have an

173

impact on the college; (2) establishing and recording
long-term priorities for college development (using
Delphi or other consensus-seeking techniques); and
(3) specific efforts to examine alternatives Open for
future development and engage in dialogue designed to
create shared images of the future of the college.
Colleges grouped as small and medium were more
negative about the futuring processes, periodic and
specific activities to identify major institutional
strengths and areas for improvement, and the writing
of scenarios. The different emphases between colleges
grouped as large and colleges grouped as small and
medium appeared to be due to the human and financial

resOurces of colleges grouped as large.

Present goal priorities

 

The national profile of community and junior
colleges in the United States with respect to present
goal priorities were as follows: (1) college transfer
programs; (2) programs which provide writing, reading,
and math skills necessary to successfully undertake col-
legiate efforts; and (3) counseling programs which
assist persons in determining career and other life
goals. The next two programs in. line were: (1) manpower
programs directed toward career goals and area economic
development; and (2) accessibility to college programs,

including students who cannot attend on—campus programs.

174

When colleges were grouped according to size,
colleges grouped as small chose the same three priori-
ties and added three others. These were as follows:

(1) manpower programs which provide career and economic
development; (2) accessability to college programs; and
(3) short-term community service programs. Colleges
grouped as large eliminated counseling programs which
assist persons in determining career and other life
goals and narrowed their top priorities as colleges
grouped as small, but added two others: programs for
minority groups and homemakers who want-to enter or
re-enter the work force. With the exception of access-
ability to college programs, the other goal priorities
have been established priorities of community and junior
colleges for more than two decades.

Twelve of the nineteen goal priorities were
rated at zero to 2.9 on the unit interval scale. Among
the low priorities were the following: (1) individual-
ized instruction through approaches such as contract
learning, television and audio-tutorial instruction;

(2) programs which emphasized services to minority
groups; (3) programs based on an international perspec-
tive; (4) results-oriented instruction based on speci-
fied learning outcomes; and (5) joint programming with
labor unions, industries, and other community agencies

or groups.

175

The choice of present goal priorities and
the low ranking given to twelve other goal statements
appeared to be the result of several factors. These
factors were as follows: (1) pressures created by state
legislatures on community and junior college program-
ming; (2) limited and increased competition for scarce
educational funds; (3) fear of loss of jobs to the elec-
tronic media on state control of curriculum; (4) lack
of commitment to racial minorities; (5) close identifi-
cation of college and community; (6) an image of provid-
ing educational programming to develop the whole person;
and (7) a growing recognition that the community and
junior college needs to define more clearly what it can
do and what it cannot do.

When the data were submitted to Pearsons Product
Moment Correlation Coefficient analysis, no widespread
correlations were found among the regions. This con-
firmed the diversity of response the regions made to
this part of the questionnaire.

When the data were submitted to discriminant
analysis, no discriminant function was found among the
regions or among community and junior colleges grouped
according to size. This suggested that the regional
response could not be placed in groups, but that their

responses were unique and dissimilar to each other.

176

Goal priorities 1985

 

As community and junior colleges looked toward
the future, they presented a national profile of high
expectancy in program offerings and goal priorities.
Between levels seven and ten on the unit interval scale,
twelve goal priorities were listed. The four highest of
the twelve and listed between 9.1 and ten on the inter-
val scale were the following: (1) instructional and
counseling approaches which assist persons at various
development stages or transitions; (2) college transfer
programs; (3) programs which provide adults with the
writing, reading, and math skills necessary to success-
fully undertake collegiate efforts; and (4) counseling
programs which assist persons in determining career and
other life goals.

It should be observed that community and junior
college administrators on a nationwide basis were opti-
mistic about the future. All but two of the twelve pro—
gram priorities listed as present priorities and rated
at zero to 2.9 on the unit interval scale, moved up to
moderate or of high importance in the goal priorities
for 1985. If such optimism was justified, one must
include among one's reasons that community and junior
college administrators saw in their crystal balls,
identification of more financial resources, more deci-

sion making at the community level about programs and

177
course offerings, and greater freedom from state con-
trol over such matters.

Some caution about the optimism is in place.
Regions one, nine, and ten projected goal priorities for
1985 which in general were quite similar to the national
profile on present goal priorities. Another observation
was that while twelve of the goal statements were ranked
at level seven or above on the interval scale for goal
priorities in 1985, three of the four ranked between
9.1 and ten were goals of present priority. The conclu-
sion seemed justified that programming in 1985 will
basically be what it is at the present, perhaps a little
different if resources provide for that.

When colleges were grouped according to size,
colleges grouped as small projected traditional commun-
ity and junior college programs as their 1985 goal
priority. Colleges grouped as medium were similar, but
they included community development, while colleges
grouped as large chose college transfer programs, and
instructional and counseling approaches which assist
persons at various adult stages or transitions. Col-
1eges when grouped according to size also chose as their
lowest priorities, accessibility to college programs,
and programs which emphasize services to minority
groups. The exclusion of these two programs from the

goal priority list for 1985 raised certain questions.

178

For example, what were the factors which permitted the
inclusion of programs on an international perspective,
but excluded accessibility to college programs and pro-
grams to address the educational needs of minorities?
If this projection should hold true, community and
junior colleges will be abandoning two areas which were
widely considered part of their mission and purpose.
More tragic would be the loss to large numbers of minor-
ity people of the opportunity (accessibility) and the
I program services needed to improve their lot in what
claims to be an egalitarian society.

When the data were subjected to Pearsons Product
Moment Correlation Coefficient, a number of correlations
were found. Regions two, five, eight, and nine had
something in common with each other but were not corre-
lated with one another. This suggested that in general
the regions reacted to goal priorities for 1985 in their
own unique manner and that no particular trend was dis-
cernable. When the data were subjected to discriminant

analysis, no discriminant function was found.

CHAPTER VI
SUMMARY, CONCLUSIONS, AND RECOMMENDATIONS

Chapter VI presents a summary of the study,
conclusions arrived at, and recommendations for review,
consideration and possible application. Recommendations
for further study have also been included in this sec-

tion.

Summary

The purpose of the study was to describe futur-
ing practices in community and junior colleges and to
describe the major content of the product of these prac-
tices as well as selected elements from the best avail-
able plans. To accomplish this purpose, a sample of
303 chief administrators were drawn from the 1979

Community, Junior and Technical College Directory.

 

These administrators were mailed a questionnaire and
asked to respond to seventy-eight questions and state-
ments under four headings. In addition, they were asked
to return with the completed questionnaire, any planning
documents such as college mission statements, college
goals, results of futuring sessions, and entire or com-

plete plans for the college.

179

180

The four major headings of the questionnaire
(see appendix A) were as follows: (1) the identifica—
tion and rating of social trends; (2) the rating of the
feasibility and desirability of alternative future
images of the community college; (3) the present partic-
ipation and importance of futuring processes; and
(4) present and future institutional goal priorities.
Two hundred and twenty—one, or 73 percent of the
respondents returned the completed questionnaire.

Chief administrators of community and junior
colleges identified two social trends to be of great
significance, six others of moderate significance, and
ten more of little or no significance. The two social
trends of greatest significance were (1) energy short-
ages, and (2) advances in science and technology. The
six social trends of moderate significance were:

(1) from consumption to conservation; (2) entry of women
into all or most career fields; (3) changes in the
nature of work; (4) advances in communications; (5) end
of youth culture, beginning of an adult development cul-
ture; and (6) tendency toward centralized governmental
control.

College administrators felt that the social
trend involving energy shortages would have a major
impact on their institutions. Administrators in col-

leges grouped as small and medium felt that the trend

181
involving advances in science and technology would have
a major impact on them, while administrators in colleges
grouped as large felt the impact would be moderate. On
the trend dealing with the tendency towards centralized
governmental control, the situation was reversed.
Administrators in colleges grouped as large felt this
trend would have a major impact on their institutions,
while administrators in schools grouped as small and
medium felt it would have a moderate impact.

Community and junior college administrators also
considered future images of the community college from
two perspectives. They were as follows: (1) feasibil-
ity and (2) desirability. The choice of administrators
in general was that of the image of the community-based
college for both perspectives. Nevertheless, other
future images were very attractive to college admini-
strators. When colleges were grouped according to size,
specifically, colleges grouped as medium and large found
the image, career-based college, most feasible. Commun-
ity and junior college administrators indicated that
they participated in all of the futuring processes
listed in the study. Of the five processes, the most
heavily engaged-in futuring activity was periodic and
specific activities to identify major institutional
strengths and areas for improvement. Eighty-nine per-

cent of the respondents engaged in this activity, while

182
16 percent engaged in scenario writing. Chief admini-
strators felt that periodic and specific activities to
identify major institutional strengths and areas for
improvement were very important, while scenario writing
was not important at all.

Other futuring activities included: (1) a spe-
cific periodic effort to identify social and community
trends which may have an impact on college development;
(2) specific efforts to examine alternatives open for
future development; (3) the design and creation of
shared images; and (4) establishing and recording long-
term priorities for future development, using consensus-
seeking techniques such as Delphi. These futuring pro-
cesses were rated second, third, and fourth respectively
in present use and importance.

When colleges were grouped according to size,
the chief administrators responded in much the same man-
ner to futuring activities except that administrators of
colleges grouped as small and medium responded to sce-
nario writing more positively than did administrators
of colleges grouped as large.

The final section of the study addressed insti-
tutional goal priorities for the present and for 1985.
College administrators identified present institutional
goal priorities as follows: (1) college transfer pro-

grams; (2) programs which provide writing, reading, and

183
math skills necessary to successfully undertake colle-
giate efforts; and (3) counseling programs which assist
persons in determing career and other life goals. Three
other programs were of moderate significance:
(1) accessibility to college programs, including those
who cannot attend on campus; (2) manpower programs
directed towards career goals and area economic develop-
ment; and (3) short-term community services programs
which permit adults to improve skills in various life
role areas. The other thirteen goal statements fell
into the 35 percent level or below on the unit interval
scale.

Factors which appeared to affect the low ranking
of these goal priorities were as follows: (1) pressures
created by the state legislature on community and junior
college programming; (2) pressures from accrediting
institutions; (3) increased competition for scarce
financial resources; (4) fear of the loss of jobs to
the electronic media or state control of the curricula;
(5) lack of commitment to minorities; and (6) a growing
recognition that community and junior colleges need to
define more clearly what they can and cannot do in
serving their diverse communities.

When community and junior college administrators
considered 1985 institutional goal priorities, they

appeared very optimistic about the future. Twelve of

184
the nineteen goal priority statements were ranked at or
above level seven on the unit interval scale. Four of
the twelve were ranked at the 9.1 to ten level on the
unit interval scale. The four were as follows:
(1) instructional and counseling approaches which assist
persons at various adult development steps or transi-
tions; (2) college transfer programs; (3) programs which
provide adults with the reading, writing, and math
skills necessary to successfully undertake collegiate
efforts; and (4) counseling programs which assist per-
sons in determining career and other life goals.

When colleges were grouped according to size,
colleges grouped as small and medium projected tradi-
tional community and junior college programs, except
colleges grouped as medium included community develop-
ment. Colleges grouped as large focused on transfer and
counseling programs. All colleges regardless of size
chose as their lowest priorities, accessibility to col-
lege programs, including those who cannot attend on-
campus programs, and programs which emphasize services
to minority groups.

Planning documents

Community and junior college administrators were
asked to return with the questionnaire the following
planning documents: (1) college mission statements;

(2) college goals; (3) results of futuring sessions,

185

such as written statements of future images, missions,
goals, and scenarios; as well as (4) planning documents.

When these data were grossly sorted and cate-
gorized, it seemed evident that community and junior
college administrators had gone a long way in tradi-
tional planning and development of long-range plans. It
was also evident that little was accomplished in the
manner of futuristic planning by community and junior
college administrators. The conclusion was reached that
while some first steps were taken in futuristics in com-
munity and junior college administration, the extent and

practice remained very limited.

Conclusions

 

As indicated in chapter I, three conditions were
to be addressed through this investigation. The results
are as follows:

1. To study the extent to which community and
junior colleges were engaged in futuring.

The analysis of the data suggested that commun-
ity and junior college administrators were heavily
engaged in traditional aspects of planning. These
included but were not limited to, the development of
mission statements, goal statements, activities to iden-
tify major institutional strengths and areas for

improvement. Other areas included efforts to identify

186
social and community trends which might impact on insti-
tutional development.

These activities formed the major portion of
institutional planning activity and were considered to;
be the most important. Eighty-nine percent of community
and junior college administrators indicated that they
were presently engaged in activities to identify insti-
tutional strengths and areas for improvement. Seventy-
one percent were engaged in activities to identify
social trends which might have an impact on their insti-
tutions.

Described as not important, and little practiced
at present, were (1) scenario writing; (2) the use of
consensus techniques in establishing long-term priori-
ties; (3) the creation of shared images; and (4) the
examination of alternatives for future institutional
development. But it was precisely the use of these fac-
tors in planning which were said to give planning its
futuristic approach.

The conclusion was that while some first steps
have been taken in futuristic planning in community and
junior college administration, the extent of such activ-
ity was limited.

2. To identify the extent of the present prac-
tice of futuring.

It appears from the results of this study that

187
the extent of present practice of futurism in community
and junior college planning was minimal. The results of
the study showed that while community and junior college
administrators identified social trends, specifically,
energy shortages, advances in science and technology,
and the tendency towards centralized governmental con-
trol, to mention a few, could have a very major impact
on their institutions, there was little evidence to sug-
gest that community and junior college administrators
had taken the potential impact of these social trends
seriously. That is, one would expect to see the evi-
dence in planning documents, but this was rarely seen.

A similar situation existed with respect to the
examination of alternatives open for future development
and the development and creation of shared images. Of
the forty-four planning documents studied, only three
considered a "what if?" For example, What if plans did
not go as they were planned? What if new or altered
circumstances developed which called for some new or
altered approach? Three plans anticipated this possi-
bility and developed scenarios to help determine what
course or courses of action might be best suited to the
developing situation. One of the three plans went fur-
ther. It designed scenarios which required an altered
economic base for an area dependent on a single indus-

try. In choosing this path, this plan was the seed

188
plant for the creation of a different future for that
area. It was altering a present and past image of that
community, and was in the process of creating a new one.

The general absence of evidence which takes the
treatment of social trends seriously; the consideration
of alternatives open for action; the sparcity of sce—
nario writing and use of consensus-seeking techniques
in the development of long-term priorities; suggested
that the extent of futuring in community and junior col-
leges was minimal.

3. To describe some of the best elements and
practices which are available.

The conclusion this researcher reached after
studying the forty-four planning documents which were
returned was that some community and junior colleges
were doing a remarkable job at futuring. The quantity
was not enough to generalize that community and junior
cOllege administrators had embraced futuring. It was
enough to provide direction for those community and
junior college policymakers and planners who want to get
more effectiveness out of planning.

What follows is a composite of some of
the very best plans. This will suggest what’an excel-
lent plan might contain. To facilitate description, two

categories were developed as follows: (1) considerations

189
for futuristic planning, and (2) results of futuristic
planning.

Considerations when planning. Some of the bet-
ter plans showed that a number of considerations were
taken into account when planning was undertaken. This
is not an exhaustive listing, but a few considerations
this researcher thinks are important. They are as fol-
lows: (l) the purpose of planning; (2) a statement of
planning assumptions, present and future; (3) considera—
tion of the external and internal environment;

(4) trends; (5) the use of consensus-seeking techniques
and scenario writing; (6) image development and sharing;
and (7) identification of institutional strengths and
weaknesses.

It seemed quite obvious why planning was under-
taken, yet it was quite refreshing to see the purpose
stated. Planning may be undertaken to facilitate the
fulfillment of institutional mission and to achieve
operating efficiency and effectivness. Whatever the
purpose, it seems that it should be stated. When
stated, the purpose declares for all the institution
and its various publics what the institution is all
about.

Present and future planning assumptions should
be given careful consideration. At least a couple of

factors should be considered. One is the certain/

190
uncertainty factor assigned to the assumption and its
application. The certainty factor determines the level
of precision the assumption is allowed in planning.
This yields better planning precision, better long-term
goal effectiveness, improved cost efficiency and program
effectiveness. The greater the uncertainty factor, the
greater the range of flexibility, hedging, and options
the institution needs for unexpected conditions. When
making decisions about the inclusion or exclusion of
an assumption, one should consider what direct bearing
it has on goals and objectives.

A few of the better plans required planning
assumptions from each planning unit along with their
goals and objectives. Categories covered were societal
context, external agencies, leadership/management,
existing and potential programs, potential enrollment,
professional development, physical plant, equipment, and
physical resources. Within each category there were
several planning assumptions.

In the category societal context, one college
listed thirty assumptions. These were about such things
as crime and violence, substance abuse, metrication,
energy, family life, work and leisure, to mention a few.
Each planning assumption was fully written and covered
both the external and the internal environment.

A few of the better plans dealt extensively with

191
the external and internal environment, and focused heav-
ily on trends. A major problem with some of the poorer
plans was the limited manner in which the internal and
external environment was perceived and their treatment
of trends.

Another component of futuruism which appeared
in some of the better plans was the use of consensus-
seeking techniques such as Delphi. This was very much
missing in the poorer plans.' These latter plans read as
though the establishment of missiOn, goals, objectives,
and the setting of priorities occurred without the need
for consensus. Maybe there was a method for obtaining
consensus, but it was not stated in the plan. Some of
the better plans referred to Delphi in particular as a
method of obtaining consensus.

The use of consensus-seeking techniques can
assist in the resolution of tough issues. Plans arrived
at through consensus appear to have a much better chance
at implementation and success than do plans arrived at
by limited support from the persons expected to carry
them out.

Other elements of some of the best plans were
scenario writing and image development and sharing. One
plan in particular used scenario writing to suggest a
change in the economic base of a community. Scenario

writing can be used in a variety of situations. It can

192
be used to enhance clarity, direction, and in expected
or unexpected conditions. It is a useful tool to use to
probe the question, What if?

The final consideration from some of the better
plans was image development and sharing. The creation
of an image requires that the institution must know what
it wants to be. The institution must be aware of how
it wants to be perceived by the various publics it
serves. Besides that, the institution must also know
whom it wants to serve and is capable of serving. Much
of this comes from understanding the external and inter-
nal environment. When this is accomplished, the
establishment of goals, priorities, and the allocation
of resources, represent the raw materials out of which
the image of an institution is created.

Just as it is important for an institution to
have a sense of purpose, so it is equally important to
understand what that purpose is. An institution's sense
of being is communicated through its mission, pur-
pose(s), goals, objectives, and priorities. This was
clear from some of the best plans.

Results of futuristic planning. The results of
planning were seen in the development of what appeared
to be more effective institutional plans. The contents
of some of the better plans included the following:

(1) mission statement, purpose(s), goals (long- and

193
short-range), objectives; (2) time frames for the accom—
plishment of goals and objectives, (3) list of prior-
ities and ranking of priorities (high, medium, and low);
(4) planning calendar; (5) planning aalternative
approaches to goal achievement; and (6) other evidences
of futuristic planning, including scenario writing and
consensus-seeking measures.

The mission was generally a considered statement
of what the college wants to be. A college may want to
be a comprehensive institution of higher education, or
it may want to have a simple purpose. Whatever may be
the purpose(s), when stated, it/they add(s) clarity to
the plan. Community and junior colleges in the study
did not, in general, differentiate between mission and
purposes. Sometimes these terms were used interchange-
ably, but on a very few occasions the purpose(s) was/
were stated as to accomplish the mission. When so used,
the statement of purpose appeared to be very effective.

Most plans had well-stated goals, both short-
and long-range. These generally reflected the broad
aims of the mission and were much broader than the
objectives. The objectives were a series of thrusts to
achieve the much larger goal. The significance of the
futuristic orientation of the goals was that they were
tied to certain assumptions which required periodic

review. One got the impression that the planners were

194
sensitive to the dynamics of change, unintended conse-
quences, and unexpected situations.

Some of the best plans also identified priori-
ties. These priorities were listed, ranked, and grouped
in categories. An example of a major category was "stu-
dent retention." Some major categories had sub-
categories. For example, the major category, "credit
producing programs," had sub-categories which included
career, academic, new and continuing education programs.
Whether the priorities were stated as a major category
or with sub-categories, they were ranked as high,
medium, or low.

Another important result of some of the best
plans was the planning calendar. The calendar signals
the institution when certain planning activities should
begin and end. It is one place where one can coordinate
the various elements of planning. Some calendars were
quite comprehensive and included college-wide activities
for divisions, departments, and individuals. These
activities had various cycles. The cycles stretched
from mid-term to annual, to biennial, and were well syn-
chronized.

One of the components which was evident among
the best plans and central to planning, was the
planning process. Some of the better plans high-lighted

the centrality of it by observing its explicit

195
relationship to institutional mission, institutional
goals, priorities, program objectives, plans and
budgets. It is through the planning process that the
various activities of the institution are unified,
focused, and goal-directed.

The planning process in the best plans was
described as a formal endeavor and it was in the plan-
ning process that great care was given to planning
assumptions, checking out their tenability and validity.
Here also is a structured environment in which peOple
interact with one another and with information to assess
institutional weaknesses, strengths, opportunities, and
changing conditions. The final assessment results in
the laying of short- and long-term strategies supported
by a budget that will thrust the institution forward.

The last item which appeared to be important in
some of the best plans was image development and shar-
ing. This activity requires conscious action by an
institution. It requires that the institution deter-
mine what it wants to be, the community or communities
it wants to serve and is capable of serving. For this
period of rising needs and limited resources, the crea-
tion of an institutional image and the sharing of that
image are of vital importance.

The sharing of the image has its own validity

in that it allows planning units, the staff, and the

196
community or communities the institution serves to play
back what they perceive as the image of the institution.
In the process of playback, the image is continuously
focused and crystalized toward the likeness the insti-

tution determines for itself.

Recommendations

 

1. That presidents and chief administrators
of community and junior colleges strengthen and improve
their ability to plan more effectively by incorporating
futuring practices into their present planning pro-
cesses.

2. That presidents, chief administrators, or
their designee, create or provide staff development
opportunities for administrative staff and faculty to
become improved and practiced in futuring.

3. Futuring requires a commitment to planning,
and particularly to long-range planning. It is impera-
tive that presidents and chief administrators make that
commitment where it has not been made. Institutional
effectiveness, efficiency, and flexibility could be
enhanced and improved.

4. There is some recognition that long-range
planning did not provide much that it promised. In some
quarters, there is an attempt to discourage long-range
planning or to ignore it entirely. It seems to this

researcher that presidents and chief administrators

197
would be wisely counseled to examine more carefully
planning assumptions as they relate to goals and objec-
tives, and to more carefully and extensively consider
the external and internal environments in which the
institution operates.

5. Planning takes time. In these times of
dwindling resources, faculty and staff may be persuaded
to add planning activities to an already heavy schedule
of responsibilities. Presidents and chief administra-
tors should consider carefully the environment and con-
ditions under which the planning process and planning
activities are conducted. Every effort should be made
to see that there is adequate and appropriate time for
deliberation. Effort should be made to secure appro-
priate participation at all levels of the planning pro-
cess as well as consensus.

6. As funds for the operation and maintenance
of programming at community and junior colleges become
more scarce, presidents and chief administrators must
become more sure that the college's present programs are
operated to achieve the mission and goals of the insti-
tution. Particular care should be given to the impact
which new programs aimed at community residents, agen-
cies, or businesses, have on the budget, as well as to
the quality of existing and future programs and to their

future support.

198

Recommendations for
further research

This study was conducted at a time when the
country was experiencing a shortage of energy with
increasingly high energy costs, high unemployment,
double-digit inflation, a worsening economy, uncertainty
about the country's economic future, diminishing number
of freshmen entering college, and uncertainty about the
ability of continuing education to fill the gap created
by fewer freshmen entering college. At.a time like
this, careful planning is needed. Yet it is precisely
because of the above-mentioned conditions that situa-
tions develop which result in crisis management by far
too many chief administrators. It is as if the basis
or climate for futuring was hostile and so the opportun-
ity to futuring was postponed. It is for these reasons
that this study should be replicated at a time when the
economic posture of the country offers relief from some
of the economic problems cited above.

The study should be replicated with greater
emphasis placed on the results of planning (that is,
results of futuring sessions, utilization of consensus-
seeking techniques, scenario writing, and long-range
plans). This researcher was impressed with the excel-
lence of a few plans during the course of this study,
but also by the variety of considerations brought to

bear on futuring. The plans, of themselves, conveyed a

199
great deal about the state of the art of futuring and
may provide greater illumination than the questionnaire
method.

The study should be replicated with the use of
a research technique which would permit observations
of the sample institutions over an extended period of
time. This would provide an opportunity to test the
effectiveness of futuring and its contribution to long-
range planning over an extended period of time.

Some community and junior colleges have done
extensive and intensive examination of the internal and
external environments in which their institutions Oper-
ate. This is essential for futuring. More institutions
should be encouraged to do this. A study ought to be
done among such institutions to determine if such study
produces superior results.

The study suggested that community and junior
colleges were not moving beyond the elements of what
constitute a comprehensive college. It also suggested
that community and junior colleges were downgrading
accessibility to college and programs to minorities.
The study ought to be replicated to determine if such

an attitude persists.

APPENDIX A

QUESTIONNAIRE

O C O I O O O O C C O O O O O O O O O O “GOfiuuoficse—h—OU a.” mmu=m>q¢¢ lo

0 o o o o o O o o o o o o o o o o o o o O o o o a o o I RmufiHfiemw
Deanne afimcum .mufiawamm oeooculoauv «mud Aqaamu :« mowcmso .m

. . . . . . . . . . mumoau umoumo umos no Haw Once :0503 «o Auuzm .q
f
o o o o o o o o o o o I o o a o o o o o o o o o o mmwwuuogm “whocm on

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . >wo~o:500u tea concuom cu moucm>t< .N

O O I O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O mufifium ”add No :0“U“UHufimuu>fin CH

 

O c m N H
uoOOeH HH< u<
uOnmz uumeEH mq<om oz~e<¢ "mozmze A¢HUOm
>u0> oz

 

.Anv

:uomeEH uofimz >um>= ou AHV :~H< no uooaau oz: sown a“ ofiuom wcuumu use .mpaoou uxoe ozu wcuuav o>ms ob mucosa

 

2(31

Hmfioom wcu3o~HOu use uooexm 30> usueeo~m>ov owoafioo zuwsacaoo use» so uuweau mzu “\av 300:0 .OOOOuomuua

 

mtcmuh Hmaoom

.mcmaa can OOOOOHOOue hufiawumu was .Haaucmeuu

.wcfiummum .wOOEEmuwoue wwzmuawcod MOOOHEHQHOO ecu ommb umzudmocou a Otu>oue Cu mu hawuu>wuua wcquOOH mo

OOOOHOQ was .tmmsm munoz ozu cu owmmaoo wsu uo muwbm«»0uuauo:o tea cowmmas can onwamsuaoucou ob muuouuu mm

vocaump on afiws wcuuausu .xtaum mesa no mmmoeuze and you .OOOOOOOue umosu uo mu03v0ue org «0 acmucou wesme
osu Obquumov cu pew mwwoaHoo >uussasou :« muuwuumue wcuuauau oawuumov cu m« avsun masu no amoeuze use

.emwa .Hn umbEmomo

an vuwmccoHumoao OOOOHOSOO cusuwu mmmo~m A.mowoaaou huqazeeou tomonnhuwesesou mo aauuuoncou <v

 

gouache OO<Ozoo <

mmomqeoo wkstzzou zH mmouhu<xm Osz=H=h

2(12

 

uuaeEH

“One:
>uo>

HH< u<
DuquH

oz

 

. . . humaoom tmucmauo ouaafiua a cu xuoz a scum .u
. . . . . . . :oHum>uomcoo cu ecuuessmeou scum .u
. moucoquoexo mafia powuc> cu zuausoum bofl ecuu .v
. . awofioczuob canon Hausa cu canon uwuam scum .o
. cofiomuuexmlwflom Hastq>utcu cu auuau0ueou scum .b
. . uocauaoulmaum ob noua>umm Hmucuezuo>om Eouu .m

OOOHsm oaHa>

. . . . . . . . . . huwuzouo tea xuucu no“ new names
mzu mm OOHOmouuHuuou scuuaoavo uucwH: mo caguacuaaa

o o o o o o o o o o o xuo3 U0 ”“3““: 0;” a“ mowcmflnu

o c o c o o a o o o a o o o o o comaflndUHsu UCQEQ°H0>mU
Danna: :c «o weficcumua :.ou:u~:u nusoz: no can

. mcqstncowmaouv Abacaeaou :« scuuaeuuuuuum conqudu
. . Houucoo accomuoe no omo~ .:o«uwcm«~a uo nwcwmoum

. . Houueou Haucoseuo>om conunauucoo tuuaou hucutcuh

md<om UZHH<¢ "mazmxh A<H00m

.MH

.Nd

.AH

2()3

 

O N H O s O N H

Oum> HH< u< Ouw> HH< u<
Ho: Ho:

OOHHHOHm<mm

 

whHAHm<memn

 

Aav mo OBMOO a“ oema mo umeaou zuwcassoo woo» no

. . .uucopzum uomuuum tea shame“ cu acuwoue mcofiuma
Ion vegan; new wcqmwuuo>tm v>«m:0uxm an can
“name: OOHHOOOOOO ob omcoamou cu msmuw0ue
HOOOOOOOOOO uo :wzfiwoxume: ogu “atom: HOOOOO
(Ounce ucovzum wcqzufiucotu :q :oummmmu we“

numxume no on: use .mwmuaoo woman possmcou .c

 

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . QSIBO~HOH
pew acmemomad «ecuumoacu auscuumeaooo
uwcuammczoo macaw tea amap>utcu so on tdsoa
OOOOH one .menoum toeemufitcm: can oaoocq
I3OH m:«p=~oc« acowueo OOOHEHH wcq>mz meson»
huwcseeou cu oou>umm .owo_Hou comma uvoumo .m

 

ecuuaumemud uuoumu
tea mduaxm humuOHOH came: so on pnsoz
macaw one .mmmcommwu deceauoauumcfi we“
(bayonoue tea mamstu>wtca mo mums: wcwcummd
mag weumocwmut .zocowa mucu>uon acuoom

a ma owuauou one .OMOHHOU venom wcmcumog .N

 

. . . . . . muesta «o mdwom mafia m:u ob OOOOHQOHOOO
ecuuuauumca can “muu«>uom wcuummcsoo tom
«caummuevm u0u means a an wcwccmae ouwa tam
umouau “gamma oHou muu~ uosuo uo HemaaoHeao
cw zuucsesoo web we atom: wouaommu case:

no cowuooamwucovw use .wonuou woman cued .H

 

MA<Um oz~9<¢ "mmU<ZH

"OOHHHHOOHOOO HOV can .OOHHHOHOOoO

 

.OOOOOOouwo

nouqau ouausm

momma“ m>wumcuuuaa wOOQOHHOH on» can:

2()4

cu Aav :Ouuuouum 30A: aouu uovuo weatcouaq

 

n e n ~ H
30> H2 2
Ho:
eon ov cu
OH OH doom 50> on unauuoeaa so:

 

oz mm»

sucumoue an mafia“
I>uuuu cu owuwcm

 

.Anv :auauouum doe:

 

ca auuuauoaua «Hausa can “camoue menu omaon .OOOOuuouHa

 

mowuuu0uum deco guacauauuuncm

. . . . . unseat uxoc use uo>o adoHu>
lat awoaaou uaox an ocean: vasou scuba
mueu>o uaoanaalugma uubwmmoe abuuunov

nous: moduOOO :.m0uumcoum: wcuuquz

. . . . . . . . . AmasauezuoO mcwxmom
Imamcumcoo nozuo no «seams weamzv
unuseo~a>ov Owouuou new acquuuowue
aneulwcoH mauvuouuu can weasnunbcuam

. . . . . . ucoau>oueau new human use
anumcauun auscuuauiuncu uofina xuaueopq
cu nouuq>muua ommquoem tea auvcauom

coo-cocooooooooowmydficu
use no auauau ecu mo :mowOEO: tones»
aunwuo cu OOONOOOO osmo~aqv sq umuwcu
tea usaseoHo>ut «Hausa new some mc>uu
lacuuudu ocusmxo cu «uncuwo owwuuoem

.ucuseoHu>ov «mafiaou co bonded on o>as

ans nous: unsung saunasaou can Andean
auuueotu o» buouuu auteuuua uuuuuoau <

ma<om OZHH<¢ “mmmoomm UZHMDHDh

.n

.N

.H

 

2(35

.Anv :ucauu0dsu

>uo>= cu AHV :~H< u< uOOupOdSu uoz: sud: .uopuo weaveuonou cu smug sumo can» cu «Anon wcuuou ecu on: can .ucoo

 

long be ad vwwumco mu mmoHHou use» amuuu>wuuu mcuuauau euca>oue «omen osu :« “\av goose unmade .chOOOOHHo
.oaOu uo>o moauuuoOue so couuoa uxau
Haw: owamaou 0:» 3o: uauuummt cows: «manage uo mowumcouo «OOH: Any new .moOuOHOOHQ :oquuu Bumblmeoa nouaamumu Aev
.u:05u>ouea« new momum can onuwcuuua,owouaou Hanna «OOBHOuuv Anv .AOEOOOA Haw: ammunou use nun: uOu acoHuauume
Ixo puuuauauahuu tee OOOOOOOOUV ammunou may no anauau ecu mo nowaaq u>auneu0uun unmanned va .uamaeo~o>ov owuudou

co boomed an o>q£ Haw: sous: avcuuu huucaaaou can Hague» Audu:0tu adv cu maneuuo ovauucq aumaououe wcuuausm

 

OOOOOHm acquausm

. . . . . . . . . . muuow o>uqzou uo mauuboue v>~on
ammztu>qscu no .nesoua .OOOOOOOEEOO
ado: t~303 buds: .Amaesau use as ado: no.
acoOucuoH auqcsaeou maofium> um vmuuuuov
.meouw0ue Suva homeoq was uuosm mo awcau
mtg: a so on pnzoa maoou 0:8 .numcoem
(on Mascuuaostu wcuzmuuemtq c“ mesouw
tea amuucowo xuqcseEoo ;H«3 OOOHOOOAOAOOO
cc aquacdam .mww-ou woman »m«::EEou .0

 

. . . . .uduxu Mafia orb uaosw:OH:u memo: agate bows
ob tucmeop coduuzuuneu can OOOHHOMOOOO
own ucmuwumuv be wcomuOO mo acme: 0:“ cu
upcoemou sows: wcwdomczoo :0 0b vaaoz mam
Inseam one .wcomamm no momma» acoan~u>0v
aunts mooOua> uzu cu tauoHOOu meanwOHQ
floccuuauavu .ONOHHOU woman ucoemoHo>va .n

 

 

O s O N H O s O O H
Ouo> HH< u< Ouo> HH< u< OH<OO ozHeaz "Ouo42H
uoz uoz
OAHHHO<OHOOO OOHHHOHO<OO

 

 

2(36

 

n a m N a

zuOHOOHA huOHOOHm
ace :0:
pmwmu

cu u>nn HHOS Hmow mO:u
away no» at huOHOOLO ua:3

 

m c m N H
OOOHOOHm haupOaum
OOH so:
Oosuu ucumuue o:u be fine»

m«:u o» m>qw owoaaou
use» moo: huauofiue ua:3

 

mouwwp umuzluzou u atumaob sue: cu «beat
luau manaco :OO:3 «anemone unannouu umuaaoo

. . . . . . . . . . nous u:u mo ucoeeo~o>ov odeocoou
0:» cu mu::«uucoo pea muaow umuumu o>o«:uo
cu «Haste «Hausa :uw:3 newuwoue uoaoaca:

. . . . panama hduamu new .u053mcou .cmuquuu .uuxuoz
an :03» moaou mafia u~stw anewume cu ufiavu
o:u mo huuaubu o:u oocw::o :u«:3 namumoum

0 O 0 O o 0 o O I 0 I I o 0 ”Rd" ”modfiou OH wcfiumm‘”
:« audata undous :u«:3 namuwoue w:«~om::ou

. . . . . . . . . . accuuumcouu uo hummum ucmaao~o>
.tuv uHsvm O=OOHO> us acomuoe uaumam :uH:3
mm:omoueeu mcuuaacaou tea «accuuoauumcu

. O O C C O O O O O O C O O O O O C C O O . muuouuv
cucumoauou oxuuuopca xuaauamuuuau cu ammo

Imago: maauxu :uwa new .wsetmou .wcuuuuz

o:u :uaz au~:tu ovu>0ua :0u:3 neaquHm

. . . . . . mqmow cued um:uo tea uuuuuu w:«:O5uoOmt
:« Ocomuue umuoao :u«:3 usaumoue mcwuomczou

. . . . . asaumoue uneadulco weaned baccau 0:3 ono:u
meatzaucu .mauuaoun owuHHou cu muwunaummmuu<

.n

.n

.N

.~

«Manon shun
Incoa o~awaaoa.0ao:u o» o>qm so» at xuauowua ug:3

m4<0m oz~fi<fl rhumcHzm

207

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

w o m N H

auquouum auuuoOum
OOH 304
Named

cu o>m: Haw: "mow o«:u
HOON so» on zuuuoque ua:3

 

m c m N H
auHuOOLN auguoaum
nos 30;
NoEuu ucomoue o:u uo doom

m«:u ou o>qw owOAHoo
nooa moot xuauoaue uo:3

 

o o o o o o o o o o o o o o “mach” XUdHOP—fla
ob nouw>hom ouuao:eeo :uu:3 osmuwoum

. . . . . . . . . . . . o>Huo0douoe Honouuoc
(embed co co vows: oaouwoua Hoooauosuumcu

. . . . . . maouboue auucaesoo zuouoaevucoo
mcH>Hon cu umfimmo :o«:3 meson» can mo«ocowm
Auucoeeou no:uo :uus couuouoeooo ca maoumoum

. . . . . . . . . . . . . muooumo cocoon you
wcuuoeoue cw unecoe umuomo :o«:3 «anemone

. . . «vacau ooa>uom owes: no:uo poo :uaoo:
:« moo:u you weoumoue OOOOOOOOO wcaacwuoou

. . . . . . . . . . oouou xuoz 0:u uOOOOIou
no houco cu auomeoeo: unfimmo ob asauwoum

. . . . . . . . . . . ueosouquou you wcduoa
noun omo:u too ocoouom vouuuou ecu msouwoum

. . . . . . . . . . oosoouso woucuoou toauu
lumen co comm: cowuoauumcu amucouuolouaomom

. . . . . . . . . coduuouuocu dowuouauIONuOo
too .co«a«>o~o» .mououOOH uoouuoou no :oom

ou:omoueeo :woou:u oowuoauuncu vouqaoovu>uvcu

O O O I O O I O O O I O O O “”0““ ”flow ”NHH
moouuo> cw oaaqu o>ouesq ou nuuoto awaken
:u«:3 naouwoue noou>uoo huqooaaoo unauluuosm

m4<um UZHH<¢ rhumonm

.md

.NN

.OH

.na

.qa

.nm

.Nu

.OH

208

«Homeoooo maucco~m .q

. oo«ua:oom too .oaoom .mconmwe .momoEO ouzuam no «Housmaouu on :osm moouoooo wowuauou mo auazoou emuuqua .n

«anon owouqoo mo mucosoOmum .N
au3930uoan cowooHa omoduoo .~

Nouuoeoouuooav o«:u cuouou so» co:3 nomad mowaouaou o:u econ «mood; so» vasou

 

mucoaaoo: weueeaam

O o O O o O O O o o O o o 0 O O 0 o o o o o ”mach”
no nouocowo huuczaaoo no:uo too .moquu
unsung .ueouo: gonad :OO: mcHseouwoue Ocean .OH

 

n e m N N

huuuoaum Auuuoqum
mob 304
«mama

cu o>o: qua: «non OH:u
Noun so» ow huuuoque um:3

 

m c m N H
Ouuuowum auuuoqum
doe _ Boa
Noemu ucomaue o:u ac doom

m«:u cu o>um owonuoo
pooh meet zuuuouue uo:3

mq<um Uz~h<¢ rhmacumm

 

 

APPENDIX B

COMMUNITY AND JUNIOR COLLEGE EXPERTS

 

210

COMMUNITY AND JUNIOR COLLEGE EXPERTS

Campbell, R. Monroe Community College

Grot, C. Nelson Schoolcraft Community College

Heath III, Conner Highland Park Community College

Morris, Dick St. Clair County Community
College

Myran, Gundar A. President, Washtenaw Community
College

Pappas, Charles W. Mott Community College

Wilson, Reginald W. Wayne County Community College

APPENDIX C

REGIONS OF THE UNITED STATES AND NUMBER OF
RESPONDENTS IN EACH REGION RESPONDING

212

REGIONS OF THE UNITED STATES AND NUMBER OF

RESPONDENDENTS IN EACH REGION RESPONDING

 

No. of
Region Status Respondents
1 Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts,
New Hampshire, Rhode Island,
Vermont 15
2 New Jersey, New York, Puerto Rico,
Virgin Islands, Canal Zone 13
3 Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania,
Virginia, West Virginia,
Washington, D.C. l9
4 Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky,
Mississippi, North Carolina, South
Carolina, Tennessee 45
5 Illinois, Indiana, Michigan,
Minnesota, Ohio, Wisconsin 44
6 Arkansas, Louisiana, New Mexico,
Oklahoma, Texas 23
7 Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska 17
8 Colorado, Montana, North Dakota,
South Dakota, Utah 7
9 Arizona, California, Hawaii, Nevada,
American Somoa, Trust Territory of
the Pacific, Guam, Wake Islands 30
10 Alaska, Idaho, Oregon, Washington 6
Region unknown 6

 

Total respondents 221

APPENDIX D

CORRESPONDENCE

214

)'\/":ECH§C7AN RECEIVED ma 01979 4°)

:03; . Secretary to the President
Santa Monica College NY
Santa Monica CA 90405 - ,/\

   
   
   
   

Dear Madam:

I am a doctoral student at Michigan State University in the College 0
Higher Education and Administration and associated with Dr. Gunder Myron,/
President of Washtenaw Community College.' Together, we are conducting a
nationwide study in the status of futuristics (for the purposes of this
study, futuring will be defined as efforts to conceptualize the nature of '
the college beyond five years) in community and junior colleges.

/
The results of this study are important to us, as well as large numbers of
presidents and administrators of junior and community colleges. As an
index of the importance we place on the results of this study, I have
chosen to write you to solicit your support in bringing this study to your
chief administrator's attention to secure the completion. of the

questionnaire and to return it*;9_us.__—-—*————*

 

    
 
 

ou will notice that we have chosen to write you before sending the
questionnaire. This is because we realize the importance of secretaries
as people who get things done and to alert you that the questionnaire will
arrive in about ten days.

We deep y . aSSistance in this matter, and we thank you for

your support.

 

 

 

Sincerely,

enneth Riley E

Associate Dean of Continuing
Education and Community Services

lmll/l

P.S. The questionnaire will arrive under a different letterhead, but this
is because mailings are going out from two different offices.

 

215

November 21, 1979

Ms. Ann Warmbrott

Secretary to the President
Santa Monica College

Santa Monica, California 90405

Dear Ms. Warmbrott:
Greeting!

Thank you for your kind response and for your
support in this project. The study is pro-
gressing according to plan and the questionnaire
will be arriving on schedule. If it should
arise that there is need for clarification, or
if you should have any observations which might
be helpful to this study, please direct the

same to me.

Thank you again for your every assistance.

Sincerely yours,

Kenneth Riley
Associate Dean of Continuing
Education and Community Services

KR/kc

216

WA SHTENAW COMMUNITY CALLEFE
flew“; " °

“.1 (“A aeoc as: «172*: we? :0“. P . 0. Box D-l
‘3 'x;w$53?vcmsmmatk
w w rELgAQAé 9731300 A39- 31} GUNCERA MYRAN PRESIOEM

Dear Community College President:

The COMBASE consortium, which is made up of about twenty-five community
colleges interested in the development Of community-based services and
programs, has made the study of futuring and long-range planning practices
in community colleges one of its priorities. 1 have agreed to approach
our colleagues in a selected group of colleges to ask their assistance

in conducting a study of futuring practices in community colleges. Your
college has been selected, and we are very hopeful that you will take
about twenty minutes to complete the enclosed questionnaire and return

it to us. We expect the Study to result in a publication on futuring
practices, and would of course plan to send a copy to you.

Mr. Ken Riley, who is a staff member at Lake Michigan Community College,
is working with us and is producing a dissertation as a result of this
work. He is a doctoral candidate at Michigan State University.

I realize that "futuring" is a new word to some. I would define futuring
as an effort to conceptualize the mission and characteristics of the com—
munity college in the years ahead. It would be regarded as the first
phase of long-range planning, since it would provide a conceptual base
for more specific planning efforts. I think the content of the question-
naire helps to explain the parameters of futuring.

In other sectors, futuring activities are already given high priority.
Examples would be the insurance industry, some of the major corporations,
and some agencies of the federal government. Sophiscicated techniques
are emerging that will help institutions "know" the future in somewhat
the same ways we know the past, and I believe community colleges can
benefit greatly from applying or adapting such techniques.

 

217

Page 2.

At this point, we feel it is important to know what futuring activities
do exist in community colleges, and to assess the viewpoint of community
college presidents about the future. We hope you will agree, and will
send us the completed questionnaire.

Thanks so much.
Sincerely,

Gunder A. Myran
President
Washtenaw Community College

GAM:jmvb

Enclosure: Questionnaire

 

LAKE

218

MlCl-llGAN

COLLEGE

January l8, |980

Dear Community College Dean:

During the first week of December I979, Dr. Gunder Myran,
president of Washtenaw Community College and a member of
COMBASE, a consortium made up of about 25 community colleges
interested in the development of community-based services and
programs, sent you a questionnaire on a study of futuring practices
in community colleges.

The response to this questionnaire is enthusiastic, but your
completed questionnaire is needed to complete the study andyassure
its validity. If you have not returned your questionnaire which
was requested to be returned by December 3i, l979, please do me
the favor of filling it out and returning it by January 3|, l980. If
you have already returned yours, many thanks.

Kenneth Riley, Assoéte Dean
Community Services and

Continuing Education

ac/5/7

219

§"‘$\\"‘? WASHTENAW comm umnv COLLEGE

W3 ‘ ' 4.300 5:67 «93‘. TWP? :0 .E

“ »" xa.q8J7mcm3uvg n
retina-la 073 3:00 AREA 313 Gunner: A MVRAN PRESIDENT

February 12, 1980

Dear Community College Dean:

Some time ago, Mr. Ken Riley and I sent you a questionnaire which
related to futuring practices in community colleges. Since we do
wish to have a maximum response from the colleges we selected for
our sample, I am taking the liberty of sending this one last
reminder.

Believe me, I would understand if you are too busy to respond.
However, we do have a very good return so far and are anxious to add
your response. 80, if you can, could you take a few minutes to
complete and return the questionnaire by Wednesday, February 27,

to:
Mr. Ken Riley
Lake Michigan College
2755 East Napier Avenue
Benton Harbor MI 49022
Thanks.

Sincerely,

Gunder A. Myra.
President

APPENDIX E

INTERVAL SCALES FOR REGIONS AND COLLEGES
GROUPED ACCORDING TO SIZE

 

221

 

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225

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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226

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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227

. Diversification of life styles 10. End ”youth culture," begin ”adult

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1
2. Advances in science and technology culture"
3. Energy shortages 11. Changes in nature of work
4. Entry of women in all/most career fields 12. Diminution of higher ed. cert. for
5. Changes in family (2-income families, A job entry and security
single-parent families) 13. From gov. services to self-reliance
6. Advances in communication 14. From conformity to self expression
7. Tendency toward central gov. control 15. From large- to small-scale technology
8. Feelings of alienation, loss of personal 16. From job security to varied life exper.
control 17. From consumption to conservation
9. Ci tizen participation in community decisions 18. From work- to leisure-oriented society
f.
'5
14 5 6 17 1° F
l 0
1B15 12 6 1 16 7 2 9 11 4
16 11 1
9 15 _
14 16 8 12 95 611016 2 4 17 . 7
13 16 11
5 7 i
8 8 f a_ l.
1 61512 414 17 16 3 189 1 1o ‘
14 16 12 11 10'17
7 1
M 1 6 1a 115 9 5 16 6 7 4 2
a, 5 16 12
£6 at
3 111
r: 6 4 15 - 9 13 1h 4 11 1+ 10 6 7 2
g - 1,6 6 12 17
05 .
a" 1‘3 6 14 16 9' 17 616 10 11 4 2
g 15 11 17
4 , .
16 1 13: 9 16 14 5 12 10 ~ ‘ 7 a
9 '16 14 ' 11 1o 4
3 1:16 12 1 16 7 16 5 6'“ 17 2 '
16 16
2 r1 *i
‘ 12 5 15 4 9 14 1 a 17 11 6 2 7 1o
14 16 16l
l 7
1 61a” 1 510 117 4 6 11 3 r
16 18.
N* 1 9,. 12 10
6 14 1 15 5 1' 4
6 11 17 2
. 0 l 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 l O
*N = Nationwide Scale

Fig. 10. A response by community college admin-
istrators from CCmmunity colleges grouped according to
regions on eighteen social trends. Catscale values were
used in developing the interval scale.

228

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

l = Life-based college 4 = Consumer-based college
2 = Learning-based 5 = Development-based
college college
3 = Career-based college 6 = Community-based college
5
10
3 16 2
9 .
6 1 4 1 ‘
8 6
2 3 5 1
7 d
H l1 6 2 3
m
2 #5 362
85 q
6" Q 14 3
g
4
q 4 13 2
3
a 12 4 6:
2
E 4 2 13 6
l .
5 4 a 2 e 1
‘
N*5
1 2 3 1
I l '
0 l 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

*N = Nationwide Scale

Fig. 11. Feasible images of the community col-
lege from community colleges grouped according to
regions. Catscale values were used to develop the
interval scale.

 

229

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

l = Life-based college 4 = Consumer-based college
2 = Learning-based 5 = Development-based
College college
3 = Career-based college 6 = Community-based college
2
105
413 II?
E
5 I
9- 1 .
4 55 2 I
43 i
8.
25
7 .7’
H 4 1 3 2
m
26 ‘6.
s 5 2
: fl 4
c
5:
'2 21 i
8
3
“4
5 2 1 q
5
3 m
14 s
2
a 2 B ‘
4
l
5 2 ‘P 1%
a
N*
2 1 4 fl

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

0 l” 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

*N = Nationwide Scale

Fig. 12. Desirable images of the community
college from community colleges grouped according to
regions. Catscale values were used to determine the
interval scale.

l.

10

U‘ 0‘ \l

Region number

k

*N

230

A specific effort to identify social and community

trends.

Specific efforts to examine alternatives open for
future develOpment.

Specific activities to identify major institu-

tional strengths.

Establishing and recording long-term priorities.
Writing scenarios.

24

 

1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

41

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

0

1

Nationwide

Fig. 13.

2

4

Scale

6

\I

A response by community college

10

administrators from community colleges grouped accord-
ing to regions on the importance of futuring processes.

Catscale values were used in developing the interval

scale.

DONE-J

Accessibility to college

Counseling
Writing, reading, and

math skills
Adul t devel 0pment in -

struction & counseling

231

13.

For adults to adapt to
college
For adults to perform
life roles
Manpower
College.transfer
Short-term community
services

15.
16.

17.
18.
19.

ll.
12.

14.

Results oriented
For pre-retirement and

retired persons

For homemakers to enter

or re-enter work force

Con ti nuing education in

health and human
services

For second careers
For cooperation with
other community agencies
International
Minority groups
Joint with labor unions

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

10. Individualizedinstruction and industry
n 15 12 2 7
10 5 u
15 11 101915 4 9 11a 14 as
12 19914 13
9 1 ‘
15 4 11195 515 1.1 12 a a .
‘9 210 91a .
8 1 fl
12 5 fi11m 4 7 m 1 5 s14
17 1a ,4 a
7191 a?
11 W15 4 515 11 9 a 1912 1 5 132'
(D 19 6 14 3 ,
g 61 - a
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1313151411 5
C
o 5 1
'g u m m cm 54 19 2 7
w ‘m15n w 15
a: 4 ‘4
105 511 13 14 14 72 9 :1
19 n
15 14 19 9
31
12 a 41:15 7 15 1 a 2
1
w 14 17 7
2 1‘
11 15 15 19 13 5-4 9 1s 5 1 2 ‘3
n
11‘911 14 7
l r
10 9415 551913 12 a
18
N*l:17 1o
1
5519 1:14 1415 12 1 17 :1
0 1 2 3 4 S 6 7 8 9 10
*N = Nationwide Scale
Fig. 14. A response by community college

administrators from community colleges grouped according
to regions to nineteen present goal priorities.
values were used in developing the interval scale.

Catscale

 

232

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1. Accessibility to college ll. Results oriented
2 . Counseling 12 . For pre-retirement and
3. Writing, reading, and retired persons
math skills 13. For homemakers to enter
4 . Adult development in— or re-enter work force
struction & counseling l4 . Continuing education in
5. For adults to adapt to health and human
college services
6. For adults to perform 15. For second careers
life roles 16. For cooperation with
7. Manpower other community agencies
8. College transfer 17. International F3
9. Short-term community 18. Minority groups E
services 19. Joint with labor unions
lo. Individualizedinstruction and industry
17 15 12 2 7 *5
10. +7 9
11 16 101+5 4 9 116 14 3
17 10 12 14
9 11 L.
16 6136 197119 3 241610 a
9 112 ‘4 3 'l
8‘ ~
15 19 51:1 175 7 15 11101521 5
12 15 1314 9
7 .1 1
1-1 1515 5 5 1 19 4 1057 3
0) 1213’F14 ‘9 10155
26*
g 15 75115 92‘615 a
17 91411 10 15
55'
a" 15 19 ‘3 7 5 5 4 2‘2 5
0’ 19 17 1215 4
034 a
15 51: 715 11514 2 11105
19 ”J12? “,0
3 1
1s 15 7 17, 95115211
14 " 910 11 12
2 5
18 5‘3 1676 19 3 2 5
17 16 14
1
Th1: 11 7 “I 51 15 1 :1 2 12 ‘5
. 14
T 19 121? 5.. 3
N4
15 13 "7 5 5111 2 5
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 I 10
*N = Nationwide Scale

Fig. 15. A response by community college
administrators from community colleges grouped according
to regions to nineteen goal priorities for 1985. Catscale
values were used in developing the interval scale

APPENDIX F

COLLEGES GROUPED ACCORDING TO SIZE

 

 

 

 

 

COLLEGES GROUPED ACCORDING TO SIZE
Number of

Colleges Respondents Percent
Colleges grouped as small 147 66.52
Colleges grouped as medium 43 19.46
Colleges grouped as large 20 9.05
Unknown- ll 4.97
Totals 221 100.00

 

 

1"“

 

SELECTED BIBLIOGRAPHY

236

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91

 

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