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I..IJI'II' II.II J, II‘IIIIIJIJI‘IIIII I.IJJJJIIJ JJLIJJJJ IJ‘JIIIJ MJIJII II' ‘ I I' J ' I' II 4‘ IJlJJ .|I .IIJI J.I J" I I ‘IJ-II I~.I IIII J ”II I ..‘.' JJIJ IJI. .- :JI. l JIJ II IJIJI IIIII 'IJIJJ J IJJJ'IIIJJ ’J I IJIJIIJI‘I‘ JIII IIJJ- IIII,JI;I ' .JJ JJIJIIJIII/ JJJJ'JIJJJ J JJ‘I I II I I ., IJ' III.I' III} II I I:.I ’CJJLIMIAK-JIIHJIAILI II .I..III I ' I.J.'.1J IIIIKIIJJIJJJJI‘JIIIA IIMIIIIIH. ’IJIJ “me M W W“ WW wmmuuxxumuw 3 1293 10062 909 LIBRARY Micbigan Stan: University ruse" This is to certify that the thesis entitled A GRAPH-THEORETIC APPROACH TO THE TRANSPORT DEVELOPMENT IN IRAN presented by AZAM MORTEZAGHOLI has been accepted towards fulfillment of the requirements for M-A- Jegreeinfifmgmhx ajo professor Date 21/2 22/79 0-7639 OVERDUE PINES ARE 25¢ PER DAY PER ITEM Return to book drop to remove this checkout from your record. A GRAPH-THEORETIC APPROACH TO THE TRANSPORT DEVELOPMENT IN IRAN By Azam Mortezagholi A THESIS Submitted to Michigan State University in partial fulfillment of the requirements For the degree of MASTER OF ARTS Department of Geography 1979 ABSTRACT A GRAPH-THEORETIC APPROACH TO THE TRANSPORT DEVELOPMENT IN IRAN By Azam Mortezagholi Transporation development is one of the major stimuli towards economic development in developing countries. It is associated with socio-economic and government policy changes. The purpose of this study is to analyze the inter- relationships between the expansion of Iran's highway net— work in 1914, 1943 and 1975 and economic growth. The Taaffe, Merrill, Gould model on the graph theory measures to study the historical processes and current pat- terns of the highway network. The Taaffe model was found to be only partly useful as the historical, economic and political developments were different in Iran than colonial West Africa where Taaffe's model was applied. Graph theory measures identified regional variations in transport devel- opment that were explained by historical as well as contem- porary urban and industrial growth. The regional imbalance in the highway network is a major reason for inequalities in regional development. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS My warmest gratitude extends to Dr. Stanley Brunn, chairman of my thesis committee and major academic advisor for his help and advice. Thanks for many hours spent reading and criticizing this thesis. The guidance and assistance of Assefa Mehretu is deeply appreciated. I would also like to eXpress my appreciation to Dr. Wittick for his advice and for his valuable technical as- sistance with the computer analyses. ii TABLE OF CONTENTS Page Acknowledgements. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ii List of Tables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . vi List of Figures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . vii Chapter I. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 Statement of Problem . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 Statement of Hypotheses. . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 Importance of the Study From Geographical Point of View . . . . . . . . . . . a Study Area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 Purpose of Study . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 Method of Study. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 Chapter 11. Literature Review . . . . . . . . . . . 12 Economic Growth and Transportation Development in Iran. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 Chapter III. Transportation Development In Iran. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 First Period-Prior to 1914 . . . . . . . . . . . 28 Second Period-1914 to 1962 . . . . . . . . . . . 39 Third Stage—1963 to Present. . . . . . . . . . . 48 Chapter IV. Graph Theory Analysis Of The Iranian Highway Network. . . . . . . . . . . 52 Graph Theory Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52 Use of Graph Theory. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55 iii Graph Theoretic Measure. Analysis of Iran's Highway Network. . . . . . . . . . . . Caspian Sea Region . . . . . . Persian Gulf Region. . . . . . Northeast region . . . . . Southeast region . . . . . . . Urban and Industrial Development Chapter V. Transportation and Contemporary Development Urbanization . . . . . . . Population density . Education. . . . . . Industry . . . . Conclusions and Recommendations. Bibliography. . . . iv Page 56 59 62 64 68 71 81 88 9O 9O 95 98 Table Page 5. Annual Rate of Population GI‘OWth. o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o 73 6. Urban Places of 1900. Population in 1900, 1956, 1966 (in thOUSEhdS). o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o c 7/1 7. Annual Rate of Population Growth. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86 8. Distribution of Urban and Rural Population in 1966. . . . . . . . . . . . . 87 9. Population Growth of Major Cities between 1900-66 (in thousands). . . . . . . 88 10. Population Density in Four Regions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90 11. Distribution of Elementary, Secondary Schools and Colleges (in 1973-74) . . . . . . . . . . . 92 12. Distribution of Large Industrial Plan in 1948-61 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93 Table 1. LIST OF TABLES Road Construction in Iran between 1923-38 (in "11188). 0 o o o o o o o o o o 0 Import of Cars, Trucks, and Other Vehicles in 1924-50 (value in million rails). . . . . . . . . . . . . Gross National Product of Iran and Its Main Component between 1962- 71. O O I O I O O O O O O O O O Computation of the Shortest Path Matrix for the Caspian Sea region. . . . . . . . . 4.1. 1914 Network. . . . . . . . . . . 4.2. 1943 Network. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.3. 1971 Network. . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.4. Computation of the Shortest Path Matrix for the Persian Gulf region 1914 Network. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.5. 1943 Network. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.6. 1971 Network. . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.7. Computation of the Shortest Path Matrix for the northeast region 1943 Network. . . . . . . . . . . . 4.8. 1971 Network. . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.9. Computation of the Shortest Path Matrix for the southeast region 1943 Network. . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.10. 1971 Network. . . . . . vi 49 66 T3 \ L} (I) 4 66 66 68 68 \l (3 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1. General Map of Iran. . . . . . . . . 2. The Crude Population Density in 1977 (Per kmz). . . . . . . . Za. Taaffee Model-Ideal-Typical Sequence of Transport Development. 3. Major Ports of Iran. . . . 4. Highway Accessibility in Iran 1914 Network. 5. Highway Accessibility in Iran 1943 Network. . . . 6. Oil Production From the Beginningto 1974 . . . . . . . 7. Graph Representation of a Small Network. . . . . . . . . . . 8. Division of the Regions of Iran. . . . 9. Highway Accessibility in Iran 1971 Network . . . . . . . . . 10. Population Sizes in Iran . . . . . . . ll. Classification of Iranian Cities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . vii 15 34 37 46 50 54 ‘5' s; .1, J." r-’ - .r‘~. T‘ah)‘ U S S 11" t.) Z 3 Sons" «3’ X t) “KM, \. " . A d bil ‘- 2 ¢.\ OTabrix' . ' - I.-.,... U S s R Inaivfl" Maraghoh I! '-"- -__ _.I€.’.J. 0 a '0‘." .’_I ..°I":'d 's_‘ \ . “m. 'Ganbad-a lavas "-.\ - Mahabad . ' Sholuavar 'G°"°" '\--'-'\ ‘- I'M‘P '. .05. DOMNIM Mashhad '. .’ “m Galvin. MM, . " Sabuvovo 0 . I I"! a” .. Shah! Noyshobw \ 1" T ‘. Karat OTEHIAN 'r-\.__ 'i L ”‘ ) 'Sanandaj 'Ray ° Seaman j xx“, 1 as If. . .SOVOh :- (fauna-akin» Hamadan '00!» (I. (. Karmamhah .M°'°.n' °5°fl°b°d -" '\ . _ 4' Arch . t .‘ . owl" Kashan ‘. '3 ”GM 'Khonamabad o Yabas 23' s. ' ‘.\. .t'iafld. "\ AFGHAN'STAN I R A0 \'\P"."L “Isfahan \ \. Shining! 'Shahr lard T 1" Mound Salomon . Y.“ “ i ! 'Ahvax """3 g V) Zabal‘ ,‘ - - T ‘. Abadan -Yaiuz -’ . 30-4 .' _ \-. . 'ofld‘" MOh‘ho' Iahanpn' ox.,mofl [I r“. r. ‘f'T.~"-- I" .Sh"°’ Ich.d°n. \\ “--,_.—' _,.-I \, 3511mm” osngen '\ "5.", “1.... o..." \‘PAKISTAN \. ‘6‘ \'\.‘ \.-. . a ‘-. s AlJDI Q. T ’ . ‘1' "° L. A R A B ' A .CH‘.’ ‘bbCI .VOHDhCh'. ‘. ° .2- a , " (o — c .If i, Mac I. 0 I ' I. Chahbahao ‘ . nun no ' ‘ 23" F-w—F—v— P” O In 200 OMAN 3 EA .1. .2 I} Figure 1. Boundaries and location of Iran. Source: Julian, Bharier. Economic Development in Iran 1900-1970, London: Oxford Univefsity Press, 1971, p. l. CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION Transportation development is a vital issue, eSpe- cially in developing countries. There are differences between transportation systems in countries with a low level of economic development and in those with high levels. Such differences are the result of dissimilar processes of transportation development. There are many fac- tors operating to change the structure of transportation networks in developing countries. Expansion is affected by many economic and social factors that account for the inter- dependence between the tranSportation system and socio- economic status. Also, the effect of a country's political ties with other countries and government's policies in regard to the transportation network and to transportation planning are important points that merit attention. While many economic and political factors are involved in changes in the transportation development of Iran, it is believed that economic factors play the domi- nant role in the process of that development. STATEMENT OF PROBLEM Considering the interrelationship between transpor- tation development and economic growth in a country like Iran, many factors can be defined that influence the pat- tern of the highway transport network. For instance, in Iran great changes in the transportation network occurred through the participation of foreign countries which have attempted to exploit Iranian resources. Significant amounts of foreign investment have gone to transportation and to mining. Each foreign country attempted to root itself more firmly in the country and to build a transport net— work to satisfy its own benefit. The result has been an increase and a concentration of economic develOpment in just a few regions. This study is concerned with the general problem of explaining the evolution of the country's highway develop- ment and relating it to accompanying economic changes. The specific problem is whether there is any relationship be- tween highway development and economic growth in Iran. STATEMENT OF HYPOTHESES A series of hypotheses can be formulated expressing the relationship between transportation or highway development and economic growth where the relationship focuses on the spatial properties of the transport network and economic and social growth. Three hypotheses are advanced: 1. The processes of transportation development in Iran are not separate from economic changes that have occur- red in the past decade. 2. There is a positive relationship between the ex- pansion of the transport network and economic, social and political conditions in Iran. 3. The regions which have high levels of social and economic development are expected to have high degrees of connectivity and accessibility. IMPORTANCE OF THE STUDY FROM A GEOGRAPHICAL VIEWPOINT Transportation as a measure of the relationships or linkages between areas is an essential part of geography. While geography is concerned basically with the likenesses and differences among places on the earth or the kind and amount of variations that exist in space, the role of trans- portation geography is seen as one of being concerned with the kinds of organization and networks that tie together similar and dissimilar units in space. For this study, transportation geography seeks to comprehend how the like- nesses and differences in Iran's transportation network are related to economic development. The concept of transportation to the geographer is a major part of geography of circulation. Ullman used this term and explained that: circulation is basic to the spatial interaction, and thus to the geographic term situation, which refers to the effect of phenomena in one area on another area. Specific processes relevant to the situation include diffusion, centralization, mi- gration or transportation.1 The subject of transportation geography is mainly examined by geographers in its economic aspect. Improvement in trans- portation technology accounts for a great reduction of the cost per unit of moving goods between two places. This makes possible the economic specialization of the area. This regional specialization in turn produces regional differences or variations in economic production and land use patterns. However, understanding of the processes which are involved in changing the land use pattern of an area are major tasks within the field of geography. Regional geography finds it necessary to consider transportation because the organiza- tion of every region is to some extent a reflection of that region's transportation system. Transportation geography is concerned with the following different objectives: 1. The study of the effect of environmental conditions on transportation and conversely the impact of the improvement 1E. L. Ullman, "The Role of Transportation and the Bases for Interaction", in Man's Role in Changing the Face of the Earth, ed. W. L. Thomas, Jr., Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1956, p. 862. of transportation technology on changing the face of the human and physical environment, 2. The study of the processes of economic growth for a region and the role of transportation development, and 3. The use of mapping techniques to show the evolu- tion of a transportation network, the flow of traffic vol- ume, and speed of movement from origins to destinations. STUDY AREA Iran is a developing country in the Middle East. It is located in a dry region where the hostile environment is per- ceived as a barrier to the expansion of the transportation network connecting all parts of the country. The population of Iran in 19761 was more than 34 million. Density of popu- lation varied from place to place. The Central Province has highest concentration of about 66 persons and the lowest concentration is retained in Sistanand Balochestan with 3.5 persons per square kilometer. The growth rate of population was 3.0 percent annually. Figure 2 shows the population den- sity in 1977. The economic situation of Iran is comparable with other developing countries except that for the degree of economic dependency on foreign investment. The strategic importance and location of Iran in the Middle East and the existence of many valuable resources, as we will examine in 1Source: Population Data Sheet, 1976, Population Reference Bureau, Washington, D.C. .mm .& .nnofi .mwmmcp m.uoummz .:o«umflccaumcmcu cowamfiaaom w.cmc_ do apogee; waumam: .umflEme mcm passage: "mocacm .ommfinucmc_ Cw ANEx\ccmumav xuflmcmo codummzaom .N ounces x<_x- I ' Q ' ‘ ' = " '\. r .1 V.. a u h r _. \ 5“.\ \ \- x...) ‘I 0’) '3 S Iwfinar AFGHANISTAN 0" . "_ ' fi.’.’. PAKISTAN "l 1' . g 1 Omanfioa . Figure 3. Source: and Evolution of Economic Region in Iran, Alexander Melamid. Major Ports in North and South of Iran. "Petroleum Distribution p. 517. 35 carried out by various companies controlled by the Russian Government directly or through the Discount and Loan Bank. All roads built were based on a combination of improved caravan and wagon roads. Wheeled traffic (motorized) was rare and limited to local transport in Iran during the early decades of this century. The conditions of roads was poor. Except for Tabriz and Rasht in the north, Bushire and Bandar Abbas in the south, and Tehran, all which traded to some degree with foreign countries, all other towns and villages were economically self-sufficient and not connected to anynationaltransport network. At the end of this first period the major economic activity was still agriculture which made up 80 percent of the GNP. Three-quarters of the country's exportszwereof agricultral products. One of the most striking changes that occurred in agricultural production during this first period was the rapid growth of cash crops especially crops like silk, cotton, opium, rice and tobacco, all of which increased production several fold. Besides carpets, most of it was in agricultural products especially opium. Petroleum products were gradually becoming an impor- tant trade item during this first period. At the beginning of the twentieth century in spite of the existence of large oil reserves, the country was unable on its own to provide the facilities and services needed to exploit her resources. As stated above, most oil consumed was imported from other 36 countries. Most of the oil imported in the early 1900's was kerosene from Russia. It was carried by pack animals along trails to key consumption points. The distribution of kerosene became a strong motive for the construction of the north-south penetration lines. The lines were extended originally from the Caspian seaports to the interior centers. Because of proximity to the market and the low transport costs for Russian oil products, imported oil from Russia was able to compete very successfully with American oil and even replace it. Russian oil products were imported into Iran in Astara and Enzali (major ports on the Caspian Sea). The first penetration line was constructed by Russia in 1902 from Rasht (a city close to Enzali) to Tehran, a dis- tance of about 200 miles by road. The second line was built between Rust and Enzali before World War I. The third road, completed by Russia, connected Mashhad (a city in the north- east) to the Russian border in Turkestan. (Figure 4). Inland transportation in southern Iran became easier as a result of the opening up of steam navigation on the Karun River to Ahwaz in 1887. Later Ahwaz was connected to Shushtar by 100 miles of caravan road. As a result of steam- ship service Ahwaz and Shustar became sizable towns in the southern region. Also another road was built connecting Ahwaz to Tehran in 1912. Upon completion of this road Esfahan, located on the highway, grew rapidly. Figure 4 also shows the roads built in Iran before 1914. 37 .s mu::_u bum. toEQ 8230 25cm coco?- coficoEcox cochm e248: Aq_a~V xzczpuz ><323~I z<3:c_: z '. '\ ‘1' ’ J ‘; i, ‘-\ CASPIAN g (I ‘ SEA U S S R - - TAuTz ' ,w, "’ ‘- ,.-... \ P. a '1' --\,‘ I“? A Irzuvsw ’1 '—'--‘ \ . \. " usw _.5 x, i ! ' u.‘ , ~.. aspuon So °\_ . I \M . \ as . - _, ‘ A i \ agion ‘ I MASHHADO : ,J' i: ttwuw . I T" 35,. _ '“~‘”°“ 'SIMNAN "9'”"9" 1' Mrs.” /' «as I . .I' . A Roman : s HAMADAN I. OASR'E‘SHIIIN ( i i, ' ' ' AGHAN I S T AN 11AM . -.. 1 KHOIIAMAIAD ." 1 \. . . 7“. ’ESFAHAN .\ I I I A Q \ ' I R 5 Persian Golf I I I AHWAZ . ° u 19 '\ I I - Ragnar: ~ -.., . .\. ‘- l -' ‘ ., . x ’2 , ”I ,-' ' ‘- 'KERMAN .1 1'” l§ . A- I . ‘7...~-. 0". "<1: T""~<,{uwan zAwEDKN‘R """J' : \_’.’ -\‘l.‘ $001500“ '\‘ 'ijstAN 5 \ . . .fi. . f -.-_ ,, *Oe'on SAUDI ¢ 1 A R A 3 IA ‘9 , d5 . "7 '.-.‘ 4' . .3 o r J" ,r' 0( ' P. Q a I! I 0 flung. m 25* k A 4 A A ‘.,s 1 r' .2. T7» OMAN SEA 5° 5: to V Figure 8. Division of the Regions. 63 divisions. 1. The Caspian Sea Region This region extends from the northwest to the east and includes much of the central part of the country. It covers the area along the Caspian Sea shoreline. A com- parison of the network for 1914, 1943, and 1971 suggests that the number of nodes and linkages increased. These are shown in Tables 4.1, 4.2, and 4.3. This increase shows the expansion of the network during these periods. The diameter increased from 4 in 1914, to 6 in 1943, and 14 in 1971 which indicates that as expansion occurred, the size of the network increased. The connectivity likewise decreased which supports Haggett's notion that the dia- meter is directly affected by the size of the graph and inversely by its connectivity. The dispersion of the network increased from 122 in 1914 to 544 in 1943 and 21,744 in 1971 network; this documents the overall expan- sion of the network through time. The redundancy ratio decreased from .5246 in 1914 to .3603 in 1943 and .1711 in 1971 network which also suggest a decrease in the connectivity. By definition a highly connected network has a high redundancy ratio. The cyclomatic number in- creased from 1 in the 1914 network to 18 in 1971. This increase suggests that a growth in the number of circuits. This increase is also reflected in a decrease in the Alpha index from 4.76 in 1914 to 2.56 in 1943 and 1.02 in (:4 COMPUTATION OF THE SHORTEST PATH MATRIX FOR THE CASPIAN SEA REGION Table 4.1: 1914 Network. The Caspian Sea Region The number of nodes : 8 The number of edges : 8 Diameter = 4 The system dispersion index : 122 The redundancy ratio : .5246 The mean local degree : 2.00 The cyclomatic number : 1.00 The alpha index : 4.76 The gamma index : 14.29 Table 4.2: 1943 Network. The Caspian Sea Region The number of nodes : 14 The number of edges : 15 Diameter = 6 The system of dispersion index : 544 The redundancy ratio : .3603 The mean local degree : 2.14 The cyclomatic number : 2.00 The alpha index : 2.56 The gamma index : 8.24 Table 4.3: 1971 Network. The Caspian Sea Region The number of nodes : 61 The number of edges : 78 Diameter : 14 The system dispersion index : 21,744 The redundancy ratio : .1711 The mean local degree : 2.56 The cyclomatic number : 18.00 1.02 2.13 The alpha index The gamma index 65 1971 network. Gamma indexes likewise declined which is indicative of eXpansion within the transport network. The results obtained from the analysis of the connec- tivity matrix show an increase in the nodal accessibility for the networks in the three years. The hierarchial ranking of nodal accessibility for the 1914 network shows that Tehran, Oazvin, and Tabriz had the highest accessi- bility. In the 1943 network Oazvin still had the highest accessibility with Tehran, Hamedan in the next highest range. In the third network Rovan, Takestan, and Oazvin had the highest accessibility. Although some of these cities with high rankings are not the major cities, they have a high accessibility compared to other cities in the network. 2. The Persian Gulf Region This region covers mostly central Iran and extends towards the south and southwest part of the country. This region covers the area along the Persian Gulf where major ports and large oil fields exist. The transport network in this area is more intensive than in the eastern part. This region was second to the Caspian Sea Region in the number of increases in nodes and linkages from 1914 to 1971. The diameter also increased which meant the size of the network increased. As the Tables 4.4, 4.5, and 4.6 show, like Region One, the dispersion of the network increased and the redundancy ratio decreased: the 66 COMPUTATION OF THE SHORTEST PATH MATRIX FOR THE PERSIAN Table 4.4: The number The number Diameter : The system The The The The The Table 4.5: The number The number Diameter = The system The The The The The Table 4.6: The number The number Diameter = The system The The The The The redundancy mean local degree cyclomatic number alpha index gamma index GULF REGION 1914 Network of nodes of edges 4 diSpersion redundancy ratio mean local degree cyclomatic number alpha index : gamma index : 0.00 20.00 1943 Network of nodes of edges 7 dispersion ratio 1 index : 0.00 10.00 0 9 282 .3546 1.80 0.00 1971 Network of nodes of edges 10 diapersion redundancy ratio mean local degree cyclomatic number alpha index - gamma index - 1.9 : 3.3 4 5 index : 5 1 r, L 7 9114 .1935 2.71 16.00 67 cyclomatic number increased from zero in 1914 and 1943 to 16 in 1971. Because of the nonexistence of circuits in the 1914 and 1943 networks, the Alpha indexes were zero, but in 1971 it increased to 1.95. Increasing the Alpha index suggests a more connected network in comparison to previous networks. But the Gamma index decreased here as in the Caspian Sea Region. 0n the whole,.the nodal accessi- bility increased in the Persian Gulf Region. In 1914 cities like Fasa and Shiraz had the highest level of nodal accessibility while in 1943 other cities like Esfahan, Gum, and Naeen had the highest level. By 1971 cities like Tanyemalau, Khoramebad, Ahwaz were at the top of the accessibility ratings. 3. Northeast Region This region consists mostly of the northeastern part of Iran and extends toward the south. Compared to the Caspian Sea Region this area has a less intensive network especially toward the south where the number of linkages and nodes decrease. This area is less populated which is mainly due to a hostile physical environment and ab- sence of a prosprous economy. In the 1914 network this region contained only a few disconnected subgraphs. But a com- parison of the 1943 and 1971 networks shows thechanges which took place in the structure of the transport net- work. First the number of nodes and linkages grew con- siderably as Tables 4.7 and 4.8 show. The diameter 6B COMPUTATION OF THE SHORTEST PATH MATRIX FOR THE NORTHEAST REGION Table 4.7: 1943 Network. Northeast Region The number of nodes : 6 The number of edges : 6 Diameter : 3 The system dispersion index : 54 The redundancy ratio = .6667 The mean local degree : 2.00 The cyclomatic number : 1.00 The The alpha index : 10.00 gamma index : 20.00 Table 4.8: 1971 Network. Northeast Region The number of nodes : 37 The number of edges : 47 Diameter : 10 The system dispersion index = 6252 The redundancy ratio : .2190 The mean local degree : 2.54 The cyclomatic number : 11.00 The The alpha index : 1.7 gamma index : 3.5 \N U1 69 increased from 2 in 1943 to 10 in 1971 and the dispersion measure from 54 to 6252, both indicative of expansion in the network. The Redundancy ratio decreased from .667 to .219 while the cyclomatic number increased from 1.00 in 1943 to 11.00 in 1971. As in the previous regions, the Alpha and Gamma indexes decreased from 1943 to 1971, all which indicate that additional linkages entered the net- work and expansion took place. 4. Southeast Region This region covers the southeast part of the country. In 1914 no linkages or nodes existed. Only after 1943 were a few roads built. A comparison between the 1943 and the 1971 netowrks shows only a small increase in the number of nodes and linkages (see Tables 4.9 and 4.10). As in pre- vious regions the diameter increased, the dispersion of network increased, the redundancy ratio decreased, and the cyclomatic number increased. The Alpha and Gamma indexes also decreased which suggests that the additional linkages added to the network have not improved the minimally con- nected network. It should be noted that in this region the improvement of the tranSport network has occurred very slowly. The hostile environment is partly responsible for this situation. This southeast region has the lowest popu- lation densities in Iran and only a few scattered settle- ments. The hierarchy of nodal accessibility reveals that in 1943 Yazd, Kerman, and Gonabad had the highest level of 71 COMPUTATION OF THE SHORTEST PATH MATRIX FOR THE SOUTHEAST Table 4.9: The number The number Diameter : The system The The The The The Table 4.10: The number The number Diameter : The system The The The The The gamma redundancy mean local degree cyclomatic number alpha index : gamma index 1943 Network. of nodes of edges 4 dispersion ratio 6.6 1971 Network. of nodes of edges 11 dispersion redundancy ratio mean local degree cyclomatic number alpha index - index .87 REGION Southeast Region : 2.00 7 16.67 Southeast Region 23 24 index : 2402 : .2202 = 2.09 : 2.00 : 4.74 71 nodal accessibility. In 1973 the percentage of nodal acces— sibility increased considerably as other cities like Dehshir and Surman, which are located on the boundary between the Persian Gulf and southeast regions, had the highest levels of nodal accessibility. Now that we have demonstrated the evolution of the highway system in terms of network geometry, we can examine transportation develOpment in light industrial and popula- tion changes occurring in this century. URBAN AND INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT The growth of Iran's modern industry, which is both large scale and capital intensive, mostly produces consumer goods purchased by the high income group. As Oddvar Aresvik has stated, Iran's industrialization is not taking a right 1 Income distribution became increasingly more unequal form. during 1962-72 than previously. Recent income data estimate that the average per capita income in urban areas is four times more than in the rural areas. As a result of the deterioration of rural conditions and the concentrations of wealthiJTafew major cities, the migration rate between rural areas and the largest cities is growing rapidly. The ex- istence of an income gap between rural and urban income level creates a regional imbalance in terms of the distribution 1Oddvar Aresvik, The Agricultural Development of Iran. Praeger Special Studies in International Economic and Develop- ment, 1976, p. 271. of roads and other services. According to Aresvik, the per capita income in Tehran is 45 percent higher than the next largest cities and 70 percent higher than that of other small towns. The rural areas in the eastern and southern parts of the country have the lowest average family incomes. Changes in the economy have affected the pattern of immigration. The migration rates before and after land reform show different forms. Between 1900-55 about 61 percent of the internal population movement was between urban places and the remaining 39 percent was between rural and urban areas. Of 1.76 million migrants moving to twenty-five towns in Iran, about 48 percent came to Tehran and 22 percent into oil towns like Abadan and Ahwaz. Between 1956-66 the pattern of migration changes and the prOportion of total immigrants from rural to urban areas increased to 90 percent; this contrasts with the 44 percent estimate of Iranian planners. Table 5 shows the pOpulation growth in Iran between 1900-66 and Table 6 the population growth in urban places between 1900-66. Rapid population growth has occurred chiefly in the major cities which are the centers of industrial activity such as Tehran, Esfahan, Tabriz end Mashed. Oil towns like Kermanshah and Abadan and mining towns such as Kerman and Yazd have also grown. Figure 10 shows the comparative population size of Iranian cities in 1963. In Figure 11 the hierarchy of large, medium, Table 5: Annual Rate of Population Growth Period Urban Rural Total 1900-26 0.08 0.08 0.08 1927—34 1.50 1.50 1.50 1935-40 2.30 1.30 1.50 1941-56 4.40 1.40 2.20 1957-66 5.30 1.70 2.90 Source: Julian Bharier, The Growth of Towns and Villages in Iran 1900-66, Middle East Studies No. 8, 1972, p. 69. Table 6: Urban Places of 1900. Population in 1900, 1956, 1966, (in thousands) Town 1900 1956 1966 Aradabil 1O 66 84 Dezful I6 52 84 Esfahan 100 255 424 Hamedan 50 100 124 Kermanshah 60 125 188 Mashed 75 242 410 Rasht 400 109 144 Shiraz 60 171 270 Tabriz 200 290 403 Tehran 200 1.512 2.720 Khoramshahr 5 44 88 Rezeieh 35 68 111 Source: Julian Bharier, Population Growth in Iran, 1972, p. 70. and small cities is shown and their importance in total rural-urban migration. A comparison between Figures 9, 10 and Figure 11 indicates the close relationship between the most important economic activity in the country (oil pro- duction) and the pattern of the road network. Figure 11 shows the relationship between urban growth and industrial activity. This set of maps indicateszipositive relationship between the areas of high density of road mileage and con- centrations of pOpulation in the more productive areas. It is necessary at this point to mention that the pro- cess of industrial development in Iran is not comparable to the classical form of industrialization in advanced societies. No area with clustered urban settlement appeared as a result of industrial development. Only major cities grew as a result of the establishment of new industrial plants. The changes within the total economic situation of the country have infuenced the pattern of transportation network. Only after 1963 did the construction of major roads have a dominant role in this third period. The emergence of new nodes created a demand for more trans- port linkages. As the maps show the density of pOpula- tion decreases from northwest to southeast;the number of nodes and intensity of transportation network also de- crease in the same direction. It appears that the physical barriers (mountains and deserts) and no valuable mineral resources are the major reasons responsible for the lack of population and tranSport routes in the southeast. The 76 .9 92:1. new BED - . . k as 1. N CRT—V 2:5. .2 ><:::_: ZS: 250 thousand To one million 0"! one mil lion ”Oman So: I '\ F I \ . \ usss ., > ‘ s.___,/ o miLos zoo : '-. 9 "'8" -- . um a r... 200 g ‘. . h J ‘. ‘ * i \ - ‘ " '- .‘. usuz . . .\ s h - . ._. i JE‘AIYEH \. i - a ---'\ . \ O . ... .1 ' o MASHHA .2" ‘\ O . . I. o f Keg.) P-.“ u. ’ I Q Q I v .r" . “MANN . Tswsm ' ,-' \' .‘J . . . f' m N . 00" ‘I M H O - ' A.- 5 AH . .AIAK . \. Mousmsnw \ g ’ -\ a ’. . . a . . ( \ . . I \ \. '\ ESFAHAN l " *9 ‘3 .OIZFUI. a a I. Ki . . . . .YAZD L.-.‘ s“! AHWAZ O. .I. \ a A1526” . Q...‘ .O-d ; T. , . \‘ “~..."’ "~-.' ._,.~ 5 ~25 thousand. O .90“: a I" nusuw . 25 to 50 thousand . O . -\ \. ’.’ -.\ k . . . .-I\ .1 so 90100 Thousand 4° . ' s '1‘ 3... o . . 100 to 250 thousand I. ~ I. 'J Figure 10. Comparative Population Size in Iran. Source: Clarke, J. I. The Iranian City of Shiraz, 1963. p. 35. 78 P! \. ,".‘. ' \ \ us I ' .’ - > I I‘ 5 0.1;: F“ I Caspian 0 mm 200 E L} 6 © ~ 3' .. i Us" 0 (m 200 2 "o O [I], b ~.\._.“ r . - \-.~. ‘ ‘H%6 ©o C> Cmus I . I s . I. \ ; f \. © ©© G) 6 ® Mashhqd_ - f Karmqn'shah Q J AFGHANISTAN as A0 "‘-\ ‘ ‘ 636’) (b, Esfahan \: \ L - .I G) ‘. 1.160) © 6) ® / Ah ’ (1‘0: ' ® ® ‘1‘ ~ ........ I T" ‘ (" ‘ willy“: G) .Shiml @ © \ \‘MKISTAN CLASSIFICATION OF IRANIAN CITIES Iooeoeo Ist 2nd 3rd 4th 59h 6th Figure 11. Classification of Iranian Cities. Source: Clerk, Brian D., and Costello, Vincent. "The Urban System and Social Pattern in Iranian Cities." P. 103. 79 intensity of the transport network is very far in this area and except for those few roads which connect the major centers, most roads are generally in very poor condition. As mentioned before, the development of industrial activity changed the pattern of the network. The fourth stage of the Taaffe's model, which is the emergence of arteries, was evident during this third period in Iran. According to Melamid (1975) the construction of the Trans- Iranian railroad created the first artery in Iran. Before the feeders and arteries could not be readily distinguished in Iran. After that artery was constructed, it carried most of the traffic volume. The evolution of arteries in Iran is also comparable to the emergence of a high pri- ority linkage or "main street" which Taaffe defined in his model. It is believed that in Iran those lines which run north-south, and the lines which connect the western part of the country to the eastern part,function as artery lines that identify the "main street." Many feeder lines have developed along these arteries and increased the interconnection of the overall transport network. Arteries in Iran are mainly for tanker transportation which carry the oil products and goods from the south which move to large and small population nodes throughout the country. These arteries also connect the major Iranian cities. Some cities like Esfahan became a major city because of its lo- cation on the major artery connecting Tehran to the Persian Gulf coast. 80 In summary, it is evident that Taaffe's four-stage model of transportation develOpment as applied in Ghana has some application to Iran. There are some differences between the processes of transportation develOpment in Ghana and Iran which are based on the differences between the economic and political situations of both countries and the historical processes of urban development in both countries. It was shown in Ghana that the ports were the first trade centers and also the major urban centers in the country. There were no urban centers in the hinter- land before the deveIOpment of ports. In contrast, in Iran there were several historical towns which were con- nected by trail roads. These towns did not grow signifi- cantly before the penetration lines which connected them to the ports. This connection resulted in the growth of these centers as large towns and also changed their eco- nomic and social functions. The growth of these penetra- tion lines was the starting point of development of modern transportation in Iran. This is the major difference, but there are other differences including the existence of boundary towns on the Iranian border with Russia which function as a point of entry; few penetration lines moved out from them. There are no other significant differences in transportation develOpment between Iran and Ghana. The Taaffe model for some geographers has also been a base to study the "modernization process" in developing 81 countries. They identify the "modernization process" as a diffusion process from major urban centers to the pe- riphery. Gould, Soja, and Riddel have developed the con- cept of the "modernization process" and have applied it 1 They mainly chose the variables to developing countries. of the infrasturcture to show the develOpment of society and the "modernization process." However, it is believed that in developing countries a transformation from a traditional society to a modern society cannot be regarded necessarily as a modernization process. Some basic eco- nomic phenomena can measure the degree of development and others might measure the modernization of society. The con- cept of "modernization process" is discussed in Chapter V. 1All have been discussed in Edward W. Soja, The Geography of Modernization in Kenya, Syracuse University Press, 1968. CHAPTER V TRANSPORTATION AND CONTEMPORARY DEVELOPMENT As was discussed in chapters III and IV economic development from the beginning of the twentieth century has affected the process of tranSportetion develOpment in Iran. Also previous chapters have examined the rela- tionships between economic changes and the evolution of the highway transportation network. As the graph theory analysis of the structure for 1914, 1943 and 1971 shows, the expansion of the tranSport network took place rapidly between 1914-71. Before the twentieth century there was little expansion. An interpretation of the results of data derived from the three maps showing connectivity and accessibility indicate that although the transport network has expanded, the connectivity of the total net- work hes not increased significantly. The shape of the network, the density of nodes and linkages in each of the four regions, and the lack of interconnections in other regions have shown that the location of nodes and linkages partly have been determined by a number of eco- nomic and political factors. An indication of improvement in the internal system of transport within Iran was not the only objective of this 83 study. As was mentioned in the introduction, another goal was to investigate the relationship between economic changes and transportation development and to define the impact of other political and social factors on the improvement of the transport network in the country. In this regard first it is necessary to mention that Iran is considered an ex- ample of a developing country. The economic conditions and political situations of many developing countries are very similar. The processes of economic development and transportation evolution and social change in Iran as well as other developing countries cannot be isolated from the world economic conditions. It seems that many devel- oping countries are likely to continue along the same path of economic development which means they are likely to arrive at the same point of advancement with only slight differences. The problems which Iran faces today are similar to those many others are facing now or will be in the future. A study of present situations in these coun- tires and the historical processes of economic change shed some light on the future plans and help in finding a prob- able solution for many difficulties which they face. It is clear that when discussing similarities between devel- oping countries this does not mean that the regional charac- teristics and the cultural background of each society have been forgotten. The third chapter discussed the evolutionary sequence of transport network growth in Iran. The results indicate 84 that this process in Iran is somewhat comparable to net- works examined in other developing countries. For more than half a century contact with Russia and England charac- terized the major coastal trading centers in the northern and southern parts of the country. The new changes in Iranian tradition began to take place when several trans- port lines were established between the coast and the in- terior centers. Most of these lines reached Tehran (the capital city) with the result that the economy of Tehran changed immediately. Many Russians, Germans, Austrians, French and British moved there to trade or supply the ser- vices. No one can deny the role of transportation and communication in economic growth. But transportation develOpment in developing countries is not the only cri- terion which can measure the degree of economic growth. The main reason is that this process is influenced by many factors which led toprofits earned by foreign in- vestors and countries. It is clear from the direction of the trensport.linesthat major roads connect the regions of rich mineral resources with major cities and ports. Indeed major local improvements took place where access to the internal market and resources were required. The improvement of the network brought economic progress to those districts which had the highest density of linkages. There are a set of phenomena that can be used to deter- mine the reletionships between transport development and 85 economic growth more carefully. These are divided into four major factors: (1) degree of urbanization, (2) pOpulation growth, (3) level of education, and (4) the location of large industrial establishments. URBANIZATION In terms of urbanization it is correct to say that the proportion of urban growth in Iran is following the high rate of increase similar to that of other developing countries. AlthOUgh the national rate of pOpulation growth for any town may differ from the overall rate of natural increase, any town which has shown an increase of inhabit- ants in excess of the overall rate can be assumed to have experienced net inmigration. According to the 1956 census out of the 1.759 million who migrated between 1900-56 to twenty-five towns in Iran about 1.060 million (60 percent) went to Tehran and 92,000 (5 percent) to Mashed. In this period, as the tables 8 and 9 indicate, the migrants who moved into Tehran and other major cities were mostly from towns and small cities nearby. This movement is in contrast to 1956-66 when the prOportion of rural-urban migration in- crease accounted for about 90 percent of the total internal population movement. Tehran received 38 percent of the {total migrants during this decade. The high percentage of migration to Tehran can be described by the "push-pull" concept. The concentration of wealth in the major cities 86 Table 7 indicates the annual rate of urban and total rural population growth between 1900 to 1966. Table 7: Annual Rate of Population Growth Period Urgen Rugel Total w m m 1900-1926 0.08 0.08 0.08 1927-1934 1.50 1.50 1.50 1935-1940 2.30 1.30 1.50 1941-1956 4.40 1.40 2.20 1957-1966 5.30 1.70 2.90 Source: Julian Bharier, The Growth of Towns and Villages in Iran: 1900-66, p. 55. Persian Gulf Northeast Southeast Caspian Sea Region Region Region Region Table 8 shows the urban population in nineteen (Osten)1 87 Table 8: Distribution of Urban and Rural Population in 1966 Name Total Popu- Urban Popu- Urban Popu Rural lation lation lation # Popula- tion Total Country 25788722 38 9794246 15994476 Central Osten 4984828 70.3 3505970 1478858 East Azerbyjen 2636089 28.7 755458 1880631 West Azerbyjen 1087411 25.5 277646 809755 Gilan 1293835 23.5 303694 990141 Kermanshe 818685 34 278539 540146 Heamedan 88892 25.9 230833 659059 Kordesten 619700 16.5 102398 517302 Loresten 767374 21.6 165634 601740 Zanjan 461597 17.9 82598 378999 Esfahan 1424457 52.8 751811 672646 Khozesten 1706757 51.7 883057 823701 Charmahel 301359 29.1 87552 213807 Khorasan 2520779 28.8 726690 1794089 Semnen 207907 40.5 84182 123725 Mazenderen 1845270 23.9 440997 1404273 Kerman 841982 23.3 196476 645506 Sisten 502626 14.4 72149 430477 Baluche- stan Yazd 281160 44.3 124542 156618 Bushire 259101 21.1 54623 204478 Boyer Ahmad 190542 8.1 15359 175183 South Coast 349820 15.2 53000 296820 1 . . . . . Osten is an administrative unit. Source: Handbook of Social and Economical Statistics, p. 55. 88 .NcN .c .ccaseaocam Neaccm ca NH cu coomz no so me o~m> OH n n meNDm chm NBA we chwcm mm am a no; mm we so :mEumx as Hm c cceowmx ma m w cacao cm ma ma oewcmom mm ma m wmon< amccmm cm on as Honwm Ha m CH cw>uflcm Hm ha m poezmcm an mm mm :mceom me mm m “saw me an ma em>o~amm sac New mm cocoa: am am OH cocoocu cN ea cN ccefluam on NN ma Hoe< am mm m meumcm an we on cmcmmx w m m coomz m m m NOEQDLEmm mm as m mLmEmeocx awe mam OCH cmcmumm em Nm 0H Hzcwoc CA as as ceecsm coma mmma ocma oemz Acececsccs cav eesa-cos~ ceezsem messed ache: cc caress ceNschces 305m meme pooch cco ~moNEocoou mo xoonccm: ”mouocm NN an N xee< Na Na ON ceech oNN.N Nam.a DCN cescec mos oeN ocN Nacccc as he a ce>em mm as NA eseccecem ass as mm csaewem sea sea as “seem mN NN N ceceaz as ma ON cececeaz ch NcN AN emcee: AN as me ccescz me an ac Nccx mN HN m schch as an as ceceegeaecx was ANN oc ececessex eNa ooa om access: ens em ON seem as cc as casNecu NN me NN accesses as we as aaceeeq ccsN case came csez “a dance .coNoom mom cmwommu ozu CM coNumfioooo coop: ecu go :oNumuucmocoo on» .COAGQN comm Ce moNNNo scams :H coflumaoooo cone: on» ozocm m macaw 89 paralleled the deterioration of rural life and resulted in high net inmigration to a number of major cities, but especially to Tehran. According to the 1966 census, the Caspian Sea region had the highest degree of urbanization of any of the four regions discussed. POPULATION DENSITY A comparison between the population density in four regions suggests that the Caspian Sea region is the most densely populated section in Iran. As was discussed in Chapter IV, the network density in the Caspian Sea region is also higher than the other three regions. There is a positive relationship between the network density and the density of population in this area. Table 10 shows the population size and average density for each region while Table 9 indicates the growth of the population of the major cities in each region between 1900-66. The growth of population in the Caspian Sea region is mainly due to rural-urban migration and migrants from towns in the other regions searching for a better life in these cities. In contrast to the Caspian Sea region, the Southeast region has the largest area, but the lowest population density and the lowest network density. 90 Table 10: Population Density in Four Regions Size in Square Population Population Kilometer Number Density Caspian Sea Region 421538 12792037 30 Northeast Region 441800 4573956 10 Persian Gulf Region 174377 4332174 21 Southeast Region 673221 4009770 5 Source: Handbook of Social and Economical Statistics, 91 EDUCATION The third criterion which measures the develOpment of an area is education. The distribtuion of primary and secon- dary schools and colleges is shown in Table 11. Again the Caspian Sea region stands out today as the most literate and educated section of Iran. Most of the ostans show up favor- ably in primary education, because of recent improvements in facilities, and the tendency among people to educate their children. The primary schools are numerous, but the high schools and colleges are rare. Most schools are concentrated in major cities. Certain areas have attained a high level of education while others remain essentially backward. Within the Caspian Sea region, Tehran especially has the highest number of universities, colleges and second- ary schools. INDUSTRY The distribution of the large industrial establishments is another criterion to measure the regional development and show the pattern of economic activity in an area. As Table 12 shows, most large industrial plants are concentrated in a few major cities in the Caspian Sea region, particularly in Tehran. These industrial plants are mostly market oriented with the raw materials needed for the plants coming from other parts of the country. Caspian Sea Region Region Northeast Persian Gulf Region Southeast Region Table 11: Distribution of Elementary, Secondary Schools and Colleges (in 1973-74) Name Elementary Secondary College And School School University Whole Country 18719 3728 148 Central Province 2952 1210 81 East Azerbyjen 1211 189 7 West Azerbyjen 923 108 4 Gilan 873 292 6 Kermanshe 679 85 5 Kordesten 597 35 1 Loresten 565 62 -- Ilem 223 18 -- Zanjan 249 22 -- Hamedan 488 71 2 Total 8760 2092 106 Source: Handbook of Social and Economical Statistics, Esfahan 873 240 9 Khozesten 1261 210 8 Chaharmahel 209 22 -- Total 2343 472 17 Khorasan 1549 265 7 Mazenderen 1489 288 8 Semnen 202 32 -- Total 3240 585 15 Fers 1859 248 5 Sisten—Balochestan 380 44 .-- Yazd 286 60 1 Bushire 241 29 -- South Coast 401 24 -- Boyer Ahmad 398 14 -- Kerman 788 106 4 Total 4353 561 10 Source: Handbook of Social and Economical Statistics. Persian Gulf Northeast Southeast Caspian Sea Region Region Region Region 93 Table 12: Distribution of Large Industrial Plan in 1948-61 Name 1943 1961 Whole Country 471 1868 Arek 3 7 Tabriz 138 538 Tehran 182 946 Rezaiye 2 7 Sanandej 1 4 Shahre Ray 10 22 Oum 2 5 Karaj 26 53 Kermanshe 19 27 Hameden 11 35 Khoramebad -- 2 Total 394 1636 Abadan 1O 24 Ahwaz 1 1O Mahsher -- -- Khoramsha 1 4 Dezful -- 2 Keshen 2 5 Total 14 45 Bebol 2 4 Sari 1 6 Semnen 1 2 Shahi 3 6 Mashed 31 101 Total 38 119 Bushire 1 1 Bender Abbas 1 1 Zahedan -- -— Shiraz 17 52 Kerman 26 53 Total 45 117 Source: Handbook of Social and Economical Statistics. 94 All these data indicate that the Caspian Sea region is more developed than other regions. However, it should be noted that the function of these factors within a developing country is different from a developed country. It is not sufficient to rely on the criterion alone to show the development of an area in developing countries. In other words, even within a region, there is a big gap between different points because development is mostly of a nodal variety. For example, in the Caspian Sea region Tehran has been a highly developed area until now. It would appear that regional inequities of this nature are an expected feature of development in developing countries. Although Iran like other developing countries has devoted a large amount of public investment in transportation development, still there is an uneven growth of the trans- port network in different parts of the country. This has led to a wide gap among these parts especially between rural and urban areas. For those geographers who would call the four stages of Taaffe's model a "modernization process" in developing countries, it is believed that first the true nature ofsuch development or "modernization" should be determined. It is felt that the transformation of a traditional society and a modern society should not be limited to the transformation of culture, but is should cover the entire economy and other aspects of social life such as health and education. 95 It seems that in developing countries the development and "modernization" of transportation and of health and edu- cation is limited to the confines of a few major cities. The people in villages and smaller cities are still living a very primitive life. According to the census out of 25.08 million people about 15.2 million or 62 percent live in the 50,000 villages with less than 250 people in each.1 The disproportionate share of the population is absent from the developments including the nationwide transport system; this has resulted in unfavorable conditions in rural areas and the rapid improvement of only about sixteen major urban settlements. The limitation in growth and development of modernization for most parts of Iran is not the result of friction of distance from the major cities, but on the other hand, it is the nature of this economic order to limit such modernization to profitable areas. The spatial distribution of resources in Iran is unbalanced. The region containing Tehran has less than one-fifth of the total population but produces about 40 percent and con- sumes more than two-fifths of the national output. About one-half of the national investment and manufacturing pro- duction are in the Caspian Sea region. There is a big gap in the regional income between this province and other provinces such as Bushire in the southern part and Sistan- Baluchesten in southeastern part of the southeast region. 1Julian Bharier, The Growth of Towns and Villages in Iran: 1900-66, Middle East Journal, Vol. 8, 1972, p. 51-61. 96 The per capita income in these provinces is between one- sixth and one-tenth that of Tehran.1 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS It is clear that the main problem that Iran and other developing countries face is an economic and social im- balance between regions. Every plan in these countries should be pursued to achieve the goal of balanced regional growth. Considering the linkages existing between devel- oping countries and the world economies, each recommenda- tion for development in these countries should take this fact into consideration. These countries should generate their own development without economic dependency on de- veloped countries. Each develOpment plan should emphasize improving the rural condition in order to destroy or re- duce the wide gap that exists between rural and urban areas. One possible way to achieve economic balance is to make a rational relationship between agricultural and industrial development. The equal distribution of wel- fare and social services in urban and rural areas is another recommendation for achieving more equality. It is clear that transportation development plays an impor- tant role in striving to meet these goals. As we have seen there is a close relationship between transportation 1Harry W. Richardson,"Regionel Planning in Iran;' Middle East Studies, Vol. 13, 1975, pp. 16-19. and all aspects of development program. Although the main objective of the fifth development plan in Iran stresses regional development and economic and social balance be- tween regions, what has been done to date is very little. There are huge problems that need to be solved and for many of them there are no easy answers forthcoming. The expected growth of urban population is projected to in- crease from 13 million to 32 million in the next twenty years. The social and political obstacles of the govern- ment's decentralization program parallel with a severely deficient interregionel transport system are the problems which will cause many difficulties in the future. It is best that they are not neglected. Still there are some probable solutions to these problems. One of the most appropriate solutions is the improvement of the trenspor- tation system throughout the country to establish a viable marketing agricultural economy. This includes devoting more land to agriculture and using some techniquesiJTerid regions to solve the problem of water shortage. These could help to improve the economy of rural areas. These are the major tasks facing the planner in an attempt to reduce the wide gap between rural and urban areas. The distribution of small industry plants throughout the coun- try end among the regions is another plan which could help spread development more equally. As a result of economic development, more population could be attracted to areas currently considered as the backward; it may reduce the migration to the large cities. In order to promote re- gional economic development it is necessary both to al- locate specific funds to these programs and to increase the share of the regional development in the national development budget. BIBLIOGRAPHY BIBLIOGRAPHY BOOKS Baldwin, 8. George. Planning and Development in Iran. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins Press, 1967. Banani, A. The Modernization of Iran 1921-41. Palo Alto: Stanford University Press, 1961. Bharier, Julian. Economic Development in Iran 1900-1970. London: Oxford University Press, 1971. Berry, Brian J. L. and Norton, Ginsberg. Essays on Geography and Economic Development. Chicago, University of Chicago, Department of Geography, 1960. Clarke, J. I. The Iranian City of Shiraz. Department of Geography, Research Paper, Series No. 7. Durham: University of Durham Press, 1963. Fisher, 8. W. The Land of Iran. London: Cambridge University Press, 1968. Garrison, W. L. Studies of Highway Development and Geographic Change. Seattle: University Washington Press, 1950. Haggett, P. and Chorley, R. J. Network Analypis in Geography. London: St. Martin's Press, 1969. Issawi, Charles. The Economic History of Iran 1800- 1914. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1963. Kansky, K. J. Structure of Tran8port Network. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1963. Oddvar, Areswik. The Agricultural Development of Iran. New York: Praeger Special Studies in International Economics and Development, 1976. Soja, Edward W. The Geography of Modernization in Kenya. Syracuse, New York: Syracuse University Press, 1968, p. 325. 99 lOO Taaffe, E. 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