"Production of sour cherries has a significant impact on the economy of the Great Lakes Region, valued at more than $74 million. In contrast to cereal crops where water is the most limiting factor, perennials in temperate regions are limited by freeze injury, especially in the spring following initial phenological development, which was highlighted in 2002 and 2012 when yields decreased considerably. This study analyzed the spatial and temporal variability of springtime freeze events in the Great Lakes Region and their impact on sour cherry production, as well as explored the use of gridded climatic datasets. Additionally, this study examined the historical trends in sour cherry yield and potential future changes by the mid-century. The Great Lakes played a major role in the spatial variability of springtime freezes, as locations inland experienced colder temperatures than near the coast. Simulated damaging freeze events over the past 50 years were most common during the later phenological stages of the crop, while the most severe damage occurred in the earlier stages. Gridded datasets were less suitable for this application than individual station observations. Over time, phenological development has tended to begin earlier, and this trend was projected to continue into the mid-century at three stations located in northwest, west central, and southwest Lower Michigan. An ensemble of climate projections indicated a large uncertainty envelope surrounding changes in simulated sour cherry yield. The projected changes varied by emissions scenario, downscaling method, and climate model."--Page ii.
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