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W "II III“ II 100279 3837 ABSTRACT TELEVISION INFLUENCE AND CULTURAL ATTITUDINAL INNOVATIVENESS: A CAUSAL APPROACH BY Elke Koch—Weser Ammassari An attempt was made to single out the causal effect of television upon cultural attitudinal innovativeness among 100 male high school adolescents in a barely industrializing community of the Italian South. Toward this aim cultural attitudinal innovativeness is defined as the relative prog- gress of personal psychological guidelines for overt behavior within the process of modernizing cultural change. The main objective of the study was to test the adequacy of a causal model linking television exposure (TV) as an independent variable, with dissatisfaction with occupa- tional chances (DS) and achievement motivation (AM) as inter- vening variables, with cultural attitudinal innovativeness (CAI), as a dependent variable. DS /\ TV ----------- FCAI \AM/ Elke Koch-Weser Ammassari Simon-Blalock goodness—of-fit procedures and path analytic techniques were adopted to test the model in six different versions. On the one hand, separate versions of the model accounted for: (1) general television exposure, (2) exposure to informative program content, and (3) expo- sure to entertainment program content. We distinguished between two major dimensions of cultural attitudinal innovativeness through factor analysis of the cultural attitudinal innovativeness items. The first dimension, labeled "clientelism/meritocracy," was defined by a cluster of attitudes concerning modernization in the public sphere, while the second dimension, "dependence/emancipation," referred predominantly to attitude modernization in the private family sphere. Empirical evidence suggests that the linkage sequence between television exposure and cultural attitudinal innova— tiveness depends: (1) upon the kind of program content 3353229: (2) upon the attitude cluster considered, and (3) EEQH an adolescent's intensity of dissatisfaction With his occupational future and his achievement motivation. Specifically, whereas watching informative teleViSion pro- grams tends to call forth cultural attitudinal innovative- ness directly watching entertainment programs achieves it only indirectly, producing first higher achievement motiva— tion which causes stronger dissatisfaction with occupational - ' ' ion of Chances, and this in turn impinges upon innovat Elke Koch-Weser Ammassari cultural attitudeS. Yet, it appeared that this develop- mental impact does not affect cultural attitudinal innova- tiveness homogeneously, since its "clientelism/meritocracy" dimension showed to be more sensitive to television influ- ences than its "dependence/emancipation" dimension. Generally the relationship between variables in the causal model were rather weak, suggesting a tenuous impact of television exposure upon cultural attitudinal innovative- ness among youths in a developing environment. In part these low relationships were due to the control on variables exogenous to the model, e.g., education and urbanity. Furthermore, though it appeared necessary to account for more than one dimension of cultural attitudinal innovative- ness, only a relatively small proportion of the variance in cultural attitudinal innovativeness scores was explained in the two factor solution. Thus we are far from perfectly measuring the complex cultural attitudinal innovativeness syndrome. These findings led to a number of methodological consideration which should guide further research on the problem. TELEVISION INFLUENCE AND CULTURAL ATTITUDINAL INNOVATIVENESS: A CAUSAL APPROACH BY Elke Koch-Weser Ammassari A THESIS Submitted to Michigan State University _ in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY Department of Communication 1972 Accepted by the faculty of the Department of Communication, College of Communication Arts, Michigan State University, in partial fulfill- ment of the requirements for the Doctor of Philosophy degree. " Director 0 Thesis Guidance Committee: i” ; ”til”?- Chairman Iézfjj/i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS During the period of preparation and execution of this study away from the university campus, aid and encourage- ment were given me by various persons whom I would like to thank. In particular, I am greatly indebted to Professor Everett M. Rogers, Chairman of the Ph.D. Guidance Committee, for his precious advice through the different phases of my work and for his solicitation to conclude this project. My sincere gratitude is also due to Professor Verling C. Troldahl, whose eXpert methodological counsel and practical help has made possible the elaboration of data. For their computer processing, I obligedly acknow- ledge the efforts of the Communication Research Services Personnel at Michigan State University. Throughout my program of studies in the United States I have benefited from Professor Malcolm S. MacLean, Jr.'s challenging guidance, and I consider myself fortunate for having had the Opportunity to work both with him and the unforgettable Professor Paul J. Deutschmann at the Communication Research Center. ii Professor David K. Berlo shares a large portion of the guiltiness of those who have stimulated me to pursue farther my academic interests and to obtain the degree. Among the latter, I am glad to mention Professors Eugene Jacobson and William A. Herzog, whose critical suggestions and service on my Guidance Committee have been invaluable. Last but not least I like to thank my children, who with quietness and understanding have refrained from making my work impossible. Rome, June 1972. iii TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGMENTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . LIST OF TABLES. . . . . . . . . . . . . . LIST OF FIGURES . . . . . . . . . . . . . Chapter I. INTRODUCTION. . . . . . . . . . . . The Research Problem . . . . . . . II. III. IV. Cultural Attitudinal Innovativeness . . THE FRAMEWORK OF THE STUDY . . . . . . . Background of the Problem: A Review of the Literature . . . . . . . . . . The Conceptual Scheme and the Causal Model . THE RESEARCH SETTING . . . . . . . . . The Choice of the Community . . . . . . Geographical and Historical Characterization Socio- -Economic Characteristics . . . . . The Cultural Heritage . . . . . . . Some Observations on the Role of Television in Italy . . . . . . . . METHODOLOGY 0 O O O O O O O O O O O Operationalization and Measurement of Variables . . . . . . . . . . . Sample, Questionnaire, and Data- Gathering . . . Analytic Scheme for Testing the Model. . FINDINGS O C O O O O O O I O O O 0 Relationships Between the Variables . . . Testing Alternative Models . . . . . . Path Analysis. . . . . . . . . . Synthesis of Findings . . . . . . . . iv Page ii vi vii l3 13 20 25 26 27 3O 31 37 41 42 50 53 6O 61 67 73 76 Chapter Page VI. CONCLUSIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . 79 Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . 79 Discussion. . . . . . . . . . . . 83 BIBLIOGRAPHY O O O O O O O O C O O O O . 97 APPENDICES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . lOl LI ST OF TABLES Table Page 1. Prediction equations for Goodness-of-Fit Tests for models of television influence on cultural attitudinal innovativeness . . 69 2. Summary of prediction equations generated by two models of television influence on cultural attitudinal innovativeness after the Simon-Blalock procedure . . . . . . 74 3. Pool of twelve achievement motivation items . 102 4. Pool of twenty cultural attitudinal innovativeness items . . . . . . . . 104 5. Intercorrelation matrix of twenty dychotomous cultural attitudinal innovativeness items based upon Phi coefficients . . . . . . 106 6. Varimax rotated factor loadings of twenty cultural attitudinal innovativeness items in the two factor solution . . . . . . 107 7. Confrontation of product moment correlation- coefficients, Eta-coefficients and probabilies of F-statistics concerning the association between recurring pairs of variables in Figure 5 . . . . . . . . 108 8. Percentage variation in each of the twenty cultural attitudinal innovativeness items explained by sets of rotated factors . . . l09 9- Questions pertinent to this study from the interview schedule . . . . . . . . . llO vi Figure LIST OF FIGURES 16 ways of designing studies with "innovativeness" as a dependent variable. . Conceptual scheme of the problem . . . . . The four variable model of television influence upon cultural attitudinal innovativeness . . . . . . . . . . The geographic location of the community . . Typological construct of dissatisfaction with occupational chances in terms of its sources . . . . . . . . . . . Product-moment intercorrelations of variables for different combinations of independent and dependent variables with constant intervening variables . . . . . . . . Results from the attempt to derive models of television influence on cultural attitudinal innovativeness on the basis of Simon-Blalock Goodness-of-Fit Tests . . . . . . . . Path analysis of two models of television influence on cultural attitudinal innovativeness . . . . . . . . . . vii Page 20 22 28 45 62 71 75 CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION The advent of television has often been compared with the opening of a window upon the world for those who had lived before in relative isolation from the mainstream of modern life. But in what ways watching out of that window might have changed the watcher in his personal out- look upon life remains little understood. Within its limits, this study represents an attempt to ascertain a few of the consequences that television watching might have for these viewers. The Research Problem The most central role played by mass media in the developing world consists in proposing new values and new models for behavior. In a very general sense, the media must be conceived as sources/channels which, by means of their messages, expose a vast range of new options t0 the individual receiver. However, predicting which receivers are most prone to persuasion to accept these new C>Pti0ns is a difficult and complex task. Still, those in charge of bringing about economic and social change are centrally concerned with this issue. 1 It is generally admitted, and supported by evidence from laboratory and field research, that the attitude structure of a person forms a fairly rigid system. Persons who already reveal a disposition for change are likely to be persuaded to accept new values and beliefs. This "innovativeness”, or "the degree to which an individual is earlier than others in his social system to adopt new ideas" (Rogers 1962:159), can be expected to exist more readily among those individuals, in a developing social context, who in some way already feel dissatisfied with their life conditions, i.e., among persons who no longer are content with the status quo. Of course, such dissatis- faction expresses itself in many realms of personal interest. But among these, particularly for male adolescents about to enter the labor market, dissatisfaction in the occupa- tional sphere is probably most significant, because personal material and non—material well-being largely depend upon occupational success. Furthermore, limited mobility OPPOrtunities should be considered a major source of frustration in economically depressed areas. The intensity of dissatisfaction with occupational (fiances in life may be understood as a function of the xr the development of favorable dispositions for innova- tL\Jeness. These very general observations represent the raizionale supporting the present research slant on the reflLationship between mass media exposure and attitude ctuange. In fact, the research problem of the present Stnidy consists in searching for an answer to a neglected Cinestion: "How far do an individual's levels of ambition andof dissatisfaction with his own chances in life, in an environment with limited occupational opportunities, mediate in the basic relationship between mass media exPOsure and attitude change?" In order to find an answer, the present study is focused on the ways television influences the modernization Of attitudes among youths in a community typical of a developing region, where the local occupational structure offers limited opportunities for advancement and participa- tion in modern life. In particular, the research has been designed to ascertain the causal links connecting four variables which represent the specification of the four major dimensions t1leoretically relevant to the above research problem. These flfllr variables are: (1) television exposure, as the proto- tYEKe vehicle of mass media influence; (2) achievement motiva- E5251! as a theoretical referent of personal ambition; (3) dissatisfaction with occupational chances, as the main inCiicator of dissatisfaction with one's own chances in lizfea; and (4) cultural attitudinal innovativeness, as the rmajor aspect referring to modernizing value change. In the proposed causal model, later discussed in (katzail, variables 1 and 4 are assumed, respectively, as iruiependent and dependent, while variables 2 and 3 are irrtroduced as intervening variables. The analysis will be: concentrated in assessing the causal links empirically CCJnnecting the variable system by means of current methods <>f causal analysis. The next chapter, dealing with the framework of the study, will present the background of the problem, through a review of the pertinent literature, and will discuss the theoretical paradigm and the hypotheses advanced to support the proposed causal model. First, however, it is important to clarify our research design decision of identifying the main aspect of modernizing value change as "cultural attitudinal innovativeness". Cultural Attitudinal Innovativeness Innovativeness as a dependent variable can be hwvestigated in many ways. Sixteen lines of research dessign are specified in Figure 1. First of all, in terms 0f levels of analysis, one might focus attention upon attitudinal or overt-behavioral innovativeness; the former Heiferring to modernizing changes within a relatively "- ..enduring organization of motivational, emotional, Emelrceptual, and cognitive processes with respect to some asSlpect of the individual's world" (Krech and Crutchfield N9418:152); the latter, instead, to modernizing changes wisthin relatively consistent, observable activity patterns iri which the individual is or becomes engaged. Second, orue might sharpen the focus in studying attitudinal or 1Problems of operationalization of variables and their measurement instruments are discussed in Chapter IV. Levels of . . , Analysis Attitudinal 0vert-Behav1ora1 ‘8.fl Cogggég- Non-Tech- Non-Tech- $3 Foci ficq- ' Tech- "0133”“ ugh- nogggica] E? of ’00“ "010910111 Cultural nological Cultural 3“ Analysis 3} U m 0 To 0‘: 3 IS 2'3 3 / //7/ .\\\\\ \\ E. 4,; The /\\ most 3 y present / \ previous 1': / study 2\ research LE / J_, L\\DOGQQQ\ m (I) (1) W U OJ 0 e L (U 0. U5 0) $- —_A U? U) m < B '— (CS '6 +4 '8 ‘1’ O 'O m 5 FIGURE 1.--16 ways of designing studies with "innovative- ness" as a dependent variable. OVert-behavioral innovativeness either in the technological Or in the non-technological context of specification. The nonrtechnological context here refers to behavior or ideas Vfiiich are not directly instrumental for broadly economic activities and goals, namely to a cultural context. Third, each of these four different foci of inquiry Could be approached in turn by different methodological deSigns. On the one hand, innovativeness can be studied a”long-individuals as units of analysis within a geographi- Cally and culturally homogeneous setting. On the other hanti, it could be investigated among social aggregates as units, most typically in comparative and often cross- cultural research. Furthermore, in either case innovative- neESs might be explored as a developmental process over time or instead as an end-state at a particular point in time. This study focuses upon an attitudinal level of analysis in a non—technological context taking as the unit of analysis an individual end~state at a certain cutting- WD:Lnt in time. In other terms, the focus is upon EELEEEEL ifggitudinal innovativeness, defined as the adoption of {Sggatively stable psychological guidelines for overt behavior, Ekgigh are assumed to be innovative in-so-far as they depart EEEELpr contrast with traditional standards. This definition stresses the notion that "innovative- r1ess", whatever its specific connotation might be, has always to be viewed contextually to the modernization 19rocess, whose conceptualizations are manyfold and have often been criticized for their ethnocentric bias or for the unilinear theory underlying them. It appears that Roger's general definition obviates such criticism in being relatively broad and flexible. Modernization is the process by which individuals change from a traditional way of life to a more complex, technologically advanced, and rapidly changing style of life" (1969:14). As the author points out, it accommodates for the fact: that modernization is a synthesis of old and new ways SPECJific to different environments; that in bringing about <fimange, it not only produces benefits but also conflict, Paiun and relative disadvantage; and that it should be COriceived as a multidimensional phenomenon, the desir- ability of which should not be preconceived in terms of WeStern standards. For purposes of the present study, therefore, we Ehrc>pose to paraphrase this definition by stating that: Cultural attitudinal modernization is the process by which individuals modify their attitude structure implicit in a traditional outlook upon life, such as to be prepared to face a more complex, tech- nologically advanced, and rapidly changing environ- ment. Within this reference scheme, a person will be regarded as innovative to the extent that he is more or less advanced than his peers in the modification of old attitudes consonant with traditional standards. However, if we are reluctant to presume from the outset that cultural attitudinal innovativeness is based upon a generalizable and unidirectional trend, and that it is a unidimensional phenomenon, the term "relative advancement" may lack a clearcut a priori denotation. Perhaps at the relatively abstract level of comparative research, this issue may not be too critical, because the interest is more in generalizable tendencies than in deviations. However, if we were to explore cultural attitudinal innovativeness in a confined locale, and if wewere to ascertain it by means of-extraneous measurement SCTiemes, we might risk distortion of the particular Pheenomena by imposing generally preestablished standards. One way to resolve the difficulty of establishing un;L- or multidimensionality in a specific research locale SeSeems to lie in a two step approach of the problem. In '3163 first instance one might interpret the term "relative a£i\1ancement" by judging it against a theoretical continuum Wkiich, as generally accepted, ranges from a "traditional" iriitial state to a "modern" end—state. It might be ope- raitionalized on the basis of the broad cultural character- iization of the Gemeinschaft-Gesellschaft continuum of Scacial change. That is, one might ascertain, for instance, W1lether prevailing attitudes suggest a change in the family Structure from extended to a nuclear family system; the emergence of more egalitarian role attributions to the 10 members of both sexes; whether parent-child relationships Pass from authoritarian to more democratic ties; and ‘Whether achievement rather than ascription is given the main emphasis as a criterion of social valutation. These very general and cross-culturally established aspects Should be complemented with a set of related aspects Particularly pertinent to the cultural modernization flux in the specific research setting, like the perception of Standards that structure personal relationships in the QCZC‘upational and political spheres. In the second instance, and based upon the results Of 'this general assessment of individual attitudes, one “figiht proceed to develop those measuring instruments which talie the peculiarities of the specific local innovation Prc>cess into account. This approach means that through NDEDropriate statistical analyses, one might check whether Certain components of attitudinal innovativeness group ‘Ubggether into separate dimensions or whether, instead, tileey all simultaneously define a uniqueenxiunidimensional glxabal characteristic. Should we find evidence that Ctiltural attitudinal innovativeness is a multidimensional Cflaracteristic, this would suggest that an individual Inaybe sectorially, at the same time, both modern and tzraditional in his attitude structure. 11 Based upon such analyses, one might synthesize and elaborate one or more measuring instruments, which would Permit one to ascertain the locally prevailing and typical attitudinal modernization syndrome. At the same time the likelihood of the presence of a priori biases would be reduced. An effort in this direction seems worthwhile, for cultural attitudinal innovativeness may be thought of as a composite of two ingredients: Attitudes toward modern emds and goals, and attitudes toward the means that are PeINCeived as instrumental to increase the probability of attuaining those goals. It is likely that nowdays attitudes toWardthe goals of modern life are much more universally SPInead than favorable attitudes toward the modern means Of attaining them, for these means must depend upon norms mlei values prevailing in a given social context and %>c>n its relative stage of development. In fact, as long as a.person lives in a transitional environment, he may Me presumed to take advantage of the constrictions and Pcrtentialities of traditional norms as well as of modern Ones, to attain his modern ends. In this study an attempt will be made to explore tile phenomenon of cultural attitudinal innovativeness ealong the lines just described, before its relationship with other variables will be determined. 12 The main research objectives are (l) to determine the causal effect of television exposure upon cultural attitudinal innovativeness; (2) to ascertain in how far this effect should be interpreted either as direct or as indirect, mediated by dissatisfaction with occupational chances and/or achivement motivation; and, finally, (3) to determine the strength of the causal links between pairs of variables in the causal model before and after partialling out the effect of third or fourth variables. In brief, we are inquiring how and to what extent television- watching on its own, through stimulation of dissatisfaction with occupational chances and achievement motivation, produces cultural attitudinal change. CHAPTER II THE FRAMEWORK OF THE STUDY Background of the Problem: A Review of the Literature The relationship between mass media exposure and attitudinal innovativeness is relatively little understood and poorly researched. Current knowledge of the fairly well-established relationship between mass media exposure and overt-behavioral innovativeness (Rogers 1968) has little bearing on the corresponding relationship between mass media exposure and attitudinal innovativeness, for two main reasons. First, it can be assumed that overt- behavioral innovativeness is more easily called forth in an individual than attitudinal innovativeness, since a change in actions may be experimental and could easily be dismissed at a later time, while changes in attitudes are more definite and involve consequences in many realms of behavior. Second, if it is controversial that there is a direct relationship betweenrmuxsmedia exposure and overt- behavioral innovativeness, it can be presumed that such a relationship is even of a more complex nature for what concerns attitudinal innovativeness, which means that there are probably significant intervening variables which affect this link. 13 14 The extrapolation of knowledge of overt-behavioral innovation phenomena to attitudinal innovativeness becomes even more unwarranted once we move from the realm of technology to the cultural context. Here our knowledge shrinks notably. Yet, it has been recognized that trans— formations in attitudes and values are far more important to produce self—sustaining movement toward modernization than changes in action (Pool 1963:249). Moreover, the concept of modernization itself centers upon a general positive attitude toward institutionalized change, as has been repeatedly pointed out by classic writings in sociology, like those of Durkheim (1893), Tonnies (1887), and Becker (1957), and in the anthropological research, in particular the work of Redfield (1947). The polar- type formulations of a mechanic solidarity in folk society, predominantly familistic, with face-to-face interpersonal relationships, permeated by sacred values; versus an organic solidarity in urban society, predominantly contractual, with secondary types of social relationships, and permeated by secular values; seems to consist mainly in terms of closed versus open—to-change attitudes. The role played by the mass media in bringing about this open—to—change attitude might indeed be more crucial for the implementation of long—term developmental goals than in stimulating the adoption of specific technological innovation. As Rogers suggested: 15 The mass media's role in modernizing peasants of a less developed country may be mainly to form a generally favorable attitude toward new ideas, the so-called 'climate for modernization', rather than to provide the specific details needed for the adoption of these innovations (1969:110). In fact, evidence indicates that mass media channels rarely provide the specific informative and persuasive impulse for the adoption of a new idea (Deutschmann and Fals Borda 1962; Rogers 1969:109). Growing recognition that the role played by mass media in the development of a ”climate for modernization" is crucial in understanding innovation processes has stimulated a line of interest in the phenomena of non- technological change. Since the pioneering work of Lerner (1958), a few advances have been made. Kahl (1965) reports from three different countries that socio—economic status was positively correlated with such dimensions as "activism", "interpersonal trust”, "independence from family”, while negatively with "occupational primacy". Inkeles (1969) found that education, factory experience, and urbanism enhance ”individual modernity”, whereas Armer and Youtz (1971) provide evidence that Western formal education affects transformations in "value orientations". Despite the increasing interest in this research line, the role of mass media exposure as an independent variable has been definitely neglected. In fact, to the 16 author's present knowledge, this study is the first to introduce mass media exposure as an independent variable into a research design aiming to explain attitudinal change. Up to the present, researchers seem to have been more interested in investigating individual modernity as a composite of attitudinal and behavioral innovativeness. Consequently, within such a conceptual scheme mass media exposure is seen as an integral part of overall individual modernity. And yet out of this past research orientation come some revealing indications of the independent and crucial role of mass media exposure. Item and factor analytic scrutinies of the usual composite indices have pointed out that items referring to mass media exposure where among the better predictors of overall modernity. To this conclusion converge, for instance, studies by Smith and Inkeles (1966), devoted to extensive testing procedures to devise a cross- culturally valid "individual modernity scale", and of Schnaiberg (1970), aimed at the theoretical and empirical explorations of alternative measurements of the modernism syndrome. While empirical investigations contribute scarce hints for an elaboration of a causal model which might represent a hypothetical process through which television influences cultural attitudinal innovativeness, theoretical 17 contributions offer some suggestions. Relevant to the present investigation is Lerner's (1963:331-2) pregnant observation that one of the main issues we are facing in the developing world today is what he calls a "revolution of rising frustrations". For it became apparent that aspirations are more easily stimulated than satisfied, to the point that "relative deprivation" develops out of an imbalance in the ratio between a person's wants in respect to what he gets. Moreover, the maintainance of what Lerner calls "a balance of psychic supply-and-demand", is viewed by hinlas an indispensable condition of social change. Based upon this argument, Lerner demonstrates that the mass media cannot function effectively in a society unless there iS already a rapid rate of development. Lerner, with his major interest in social aggregates, did.not raise the question of what consequences "relative deprivation" might have for the individual television \fiewer. However, his argument leads us to anticipate that 'the relationship between "wants" and "gets" is also a key Variable on the individual level of analysis, i.e., in explaining attitude change. If Lerner has conceptualized frustration, i.e., the reverse of satisfaction, as a function of the relation- ship between what a person obtains versus what he desires to obtain, Cantril (1958), on the other hand, introduced 18 a perceptionist viewpoint with his concept of "reality world". Drawing upon his psychological background, he sought to explain in terms of a comparable notion of "frustration” the leftish protest vote among workers in France and in Italy. According to his empirical explorations the protest voter is basically frustrated concerning his material needs and security, his social status and opportunity, or his feelings of participation within the state. Not so much because of an objective lack of opportunities, as because of: ..what exists outside of us has no consistent mean- ing or relevance to our behavior until we learn its significance to us. This significance depends on what we bring to a situation, what we make of it (p.34) . Therefore, the critical issues are not the objective external constraints which curtail the "gets". Instead, it should be located in the subjective perception of such constraints, for it affects an individual's valuation of what he realistically might expect to attain. Referring more specifically to the phenomena of social mobility, Germani in his Sociologia della Modernizzazione (1971) seems to share this point of view: Satisfaction or frustration will depend...upon the objectives one intends to reach and upon the distance between these aspirations and the realistic possibility of mobility (as it is perceived by the subjects). The dynamic factors that concur to deter- mine the individual and social consequences are not made up by the class and by the grade of objective mobility, but by the 'rapport' which exists between aspirations and actual mobility (p. 122—3). 19 In other terms, frustration or dissatisfaction stem from the perceived impossibility of realistically attaining one's aspirations, ultimately fostered by mass media exposure. However, dissatisfaction by itself will presumably not sollicitate a positive attitude to change, that is cultural attitudinal innovativeness. To be effective in this regard, an individual has to perceive his own aspirations as "needs" and such perception can be assumed to be tied to the level of achievement motivation, whatever the direction of causation may be. McClelland (1961) interpreted achievement motivation in terms of a relatively stable subconscious need, while sociologists have tended to regard the phenomenon as a particular kind of historically (Hagen l962:IX) and socially (Rosen 1956; Kahl 1965) conditioned value orientation. Whatever the interpretation one likes to bestow on this concept, achievement motivation, in my opinion, provides the impulse for attaining one's goals within a specified area of occupational interest. In the present study, achievement motivation will not be considered a social value in itself. Instead, it will be conceptualized in terms of an instrumental disposition toward high-level performance. Its desiderata, not the instrumental dis- position, are defined by social values. This distinction is important, for it will be hypothesized that individuals 20 characterized by achievement motivation are more favorable toward the cultural values characteristic of modern society. As has been shown in this review of the relevant literature, empirical evidence and theoretical analyses support the prediction of a number of causal relationships between our four critical variables, which the present study intends to test. The Conceptual Scheme and the Causal Model In the preceding section, convergent observations have been cited which can be summarized in the following conceptual scheme: ANTECEDENTS > PROCESS )>CONSEQUENCES Mass Medla——-—->Aspirations Exposure Cultural Dissatisfaction—9’ AttltUdinal \ . Perception 1 Innovative- of External—eaiExpectations ness Constraints m Achievement Motivation FIGURE 2.--Conceptual scheme of the problem. 21 This scheme explains, on a theoretical level, the choice of the four dimensions initially suggested in Chapter I, and justifies the selection of the four variables making up the causal model, which through empirical data is to be evaluated for its adequacy. While the operation- alization--and the related measurement instruments—~for these variables will be presented in Chapter IV, in the present section the four variables will be defined, the causal model presented, and its underlying hypotheses elucidated. The four variables are: 1. Television exposure, defined as the frequency of reception of television messages ([2). 2. Dissatisfaction with occupational chances, defined as the perceived impossibility of realistically attaining an aspired occupational level (9S). 3. Achievement motivation, defined as an instru- mental disposition for high-level performance (594) . 4. Cultural attitudinal innovativeness, defined as the relative progress of personal psychological guidelines for overt behavior within the realm of modernizing cultural change (CAI). 22 These four variables have been arranged in the model.shown in Figure 3 according to the previously- eslaborated temporal succession of their causal impact (cfr. Blalock 1969). (2) DS (1) I! --------------- +1 ----------- -> CAT (4) If. A w v FIGURE 3.--The four variable model of television influence upon cultural attitudinal innovativeness. At this point all possible causal links that can theoretically be specified within this closed system of variables have been traced, taking account of the earlier argument that between "dissatisfaction with occupational chances" and "achievement motivation" no unequivocally 23 causal, i.e., assymetrical relationship can be predicted. A different theoretical hypothesis corresponds to each of these theoretically predictable links. Out of this pool of hypotheses, different sets can be combined to specify alternative developmental chains of causation, or linkage sequences, which are to be compared for their merits in explaining the empirically-ascertained relationships between the variables. So far the evidence at hand is insufficient to decide a priori which particular linkage sequence between the four variables would explain most adequately the under- lying empirical process. But the methods of causal analysis permit us to derive such conclusions on the basis of an analysis of empirical evidence. The following hypothesis are now listed, which in the analytical part of this study will be evaluated in terms of their consistency or inconsistency within the specific limits of the model. Numerical indices indicate the respective linked pairs of variables according to their enumeration in Figure 3. Hypothesislzz An increase in television exposure will produce an increase in dissa- tisfaction with occupational chances. Hypothesisl3: An increase in television exposure will produce an increase in achieve- ment motivation. Hypothesis : Dissatisfaction with occupational 2 3 O O O chances is pOSitively related to achievement motivation. 24 Hypothesisz4: An increase in dissatisfaction with occupational chances will produce an increase in cultural attitudinal innovativeness. Hypothesis34: An increase in achievement motivation will produce an increase in cultural attitudinal innovativeness. According to earlier theoretical argumentation, no direct link should exist between television exposure and cultural attitudinal innovativeness. The presence of such a direct link must be determined, either as comple- mentary or alternative with the theoretically specified set of causal relationships. Chapter V, concerned with testing the model on the basis of a causal analysis of empirical data, shall provide an answer to this question. But firstof all, in the next chapter the research setting that has been chosen for this study will be characterized, while Chapter IV is dedicated to the method- ological problems of the research design. CHAPTER III THE RESEARCH SETTING To date, innovation phenomena within the modern- ization process have almost exclusively been studied among adults. However the problem of how television influences cultural attitudinal innovativeness can probably best be clarified by studying youths. In particular during their early adolescence, i.e., during those years of the social- ization process when they detach themselves from their home environment and are not yet formally inserted into the occupational structure, youths may be assumed to be most open to television influence and most prone to change their attitudes. More specifically, as one focus of this investigation is on dissatisfaction with occupational chances as an intervening variable, male adolescents were chosen for study. Empirical evidence, cited in the preceding chapter, suggests that formal education is associated with "individual modernity". Because it appeared unwise to insert an additional variable into the causal model, only male adolescents of about the same educational level were 25 26 considered, namely those who attend the three levels of lower grade high school (scuola media di primo grado). This approach assured at least partial control for educational level; simultaneously partial control for age was introduced. The normal age—range for adolescents attending lower grade high school is from 11-14 years old. Evidence also indicates that "urbanization" is associated with "individual modernity". In order to standardize the effect of this additional variable, adolescents from a single small town were chosen. The choice of the research community will be justified in a following section. Subsequently the research setting will be described in terms of its geographical, hiostorical, socio-economic, and cultural characteristics, and finally, to conclude the chapter, some observations on television message content (introduced into this community) will be presented. The Choice of the Community The community of Manfredonia in the Italian South, with its approximately 50,000 inhabitants in 1970, was chosen as the research setting. In choosing this community, three considerations were decisive: a. Ownership of television sets among the local population had to be relatively common in order to assure a fair range in the frequency of television exposure of adolescents. b. The constraints in the occupational structure typical of an economically depressed area had to be evident. 27 c. The presence of heterogeneity of cultural attitudes across the traditional-modern continuum, characteristic of a community in transition, had to be plausible. Manfredonia was expected to satisfy these criteria. First, data from a probability sample of adults in the community had revealed that in 1965 39 per cent watched television regularly, 45 per cent sometimes, while 23 per cent never (Eisermann and Acquaviva 1971:176). Although since then the frequency of television exposure must have grown considerably, a fair range of exposure among adolescents was to be expected. Second, the sizeable rate of emigration out of the community of workers in search of jobs during the past two decades undoubtedly had to be interpreted as due to objective constraints in the local opportunity structure. And third, at the time of the 1961 census, half of the local active population, while living in town, was working in agriculture. Since then, industrialization has made small progress. It seemed reasonable to expect a heterogeneity of cultural attitudes in such a rural-urban town facing the beginnings of industrialization. Geographical and Historical Characterization Manfredonia is a harbor town on the north-east coast of Puglia (Figure 4). It is situated between the wheat growing plains of the Tavoliere Pugliese and the mountenous Gargano promontory, which forms the spur of 28 CD ROMA . ,’ “ Manfredonia \\ O (Foggia ‘%z .5. 1 \\—_"’ \ 6) \‘~ (Cy Na oli ‘\-,. 09", p § Taranto 0 \ ’ Messina C) 6 Palermo FIGURE 4.--The geographic location of the community. 29 the Italian boot-shaped penninsula. Until the end of last century the town remained hardly accessible by land because of the extensive malaria-infected swamps surround- ing it. Only during the Second World War have the swamps been fully sanitized. Today, Manfredonia is the most important urban center in the Gargano area, a place of traffic exchange between the hinterland, on one side, and Foggia, the capital of the Province, on the other. Historical records report that the original township was founded in 1256 by Manfredi, the son of the enlightened and last great head of the Holy Roman Empire, Frederic II, when the growth of the swamps and the increas- ing threat of deseases led him to transfer the inhabitants of the nearby Siponto-—which originally had been founded by the Greeks-U3thisnew dwelling place. Earlier the rich plains, if not always the promontory, had in succession been ruled by Romans, Byzantines, Ostrogotes, and Langobards. Thereafter, by the authorization of the popes, through marriage or war, rulers of Puglia became Norman Kings, German emperors, the French Anjou or the Spanish house of Arragon. Mean- while, incursions and rampages by Saracenes were frequent and cruel, and the great number of fortifications along the coasts still attest to these incidents. 30 In more recent history Puglia shared the Spanish rule of Sicily; however, the unification of Italy in 1861 under Piedmontese leadership was resisted for more than a decade. Socio-Economic Characteristics In their study of social and economic change in the Gargano, Eisermann and Acquaviva (1971) give a detailed account of the history of underdevelopment in the study area. They report that until 1951 average incomes were comparable to those of the least developed countries in the world. Furthermore, they document how until recent times the predominance of the primary economic sector over the secondary and tertiary ones, a subsistence economy, lack of capital, economic isolation, miserable life-conditions among peasants (who rarely owned enough land to support their families) along with illiteracy and deficient school facilities, concertedly confirmed the socio-economic backwardness of the region. Only after 1950 did economic development begin. Average per capita incomes for the whole province rose from US $159 in 1951 to US $765 in 1967. However during this period sector mobility remained limited, due in part to emigration. In fact, according to the authors' extrapolation from census data, fully one-fifth of the Province's 1951 inhabitants had chosen to emigrate into the industrial North of Italy or into 31 Common Market countries, during the period from 1951 to 1961. On the other hand, industrialization initially proceded on a very limited scale and has only recently acellerated because of significant government efforts and subsidies. However, Manfredonia itself, like any town in economic transition, has experienced more of the disa- dvantages of industrial development than the advantages. Its population in the 19505 grew more than that of any other town in the area, because emigration was more than made up for by immigration. In fact, the town had become a first staging-post for those who left the Gargano promontory. Some headed to farther places, leaving their families in town. Therefore welfare and administrative services became insufficient, prices for housing and food rose, but, most critically, unemployment and underemployment remained high. The Cultural Heritage History, isolation and poverty have embittered the cultural heritage of the people who live in the Gargano. Eisermann and Acquaviva (1971) spoke of a society character- ized by an "anxious individualism": ...An attitude which translates itself into profound introversion, bound to ancestral experiences, to pessimism, to suspicion, to vital insecurity. These factors condition opinion and judgements of basic values, of possibilities of life and work, of what is to be expected from the collaboration with others, of almost all beliefs and collective behavior (p. 157). 32 This heritage, which is most of all characterized by a fatalistic outlook upon life, is very basically implicit in the local culture, but today it is superseded by many contrasting aspects which introduce ambivalences into individual value systems. The results from cultural anthropological analyses have often been accused by the insiders of the community under investigation to over simplify the evidence, to have overlooked ambivalences, or to have failed to appre- ciate the distinction between more basic and pseudo-traits of the prevailing complex system of values and beliefs which of course is in a state of flux. When here an attempt is made to characterize the cultural heritage in the Gargano, and when it is described as similar to the more general culture in the South and different from that of the North of Italy, such criticism may easily be raised. While the present study cannot delve into these problems and, least of all, try to settle the socio- anthropological argument, it looks upon such a fluctuating and ambiguous state of affairs as the most profitable setting for investigating how far the cultural heritage is now being replaced by modernizing influences, within the theoretical framework formerly discussed. 33 The direct product of the precariousness of life and of the fight for survival in a poverty—stricken environ- ment is a fierce individualism. It has its roots in the feeling of an inability to control the future, and in the conviction that if anything can be achieved it must be on one's own. Confounded with this egocentric attitude is the assumption that others will similarly put their own interest in front of any more altruistic motives. Thus, as Lombardi Satriani (1968:VI), in his fascinating study of cultural themes and their ambivalences in the proverbial folklore of Calabria, has illustrated, individualism means also distrust, indifference, or even diffidence for others. No one can be counted upon, for tomorrow he may be an enemy; hence it is preferable not to place any hopes in fellow men. Familism is a second fundamental theme in the culture of the Italian South (Pinna 1971). Though often distrust and suspicion prevail even inside the family, it constitutes at least partially a sphere of comfort and of protection against society. In his study of a Southern village in Italy, Banfield (1958:85) has developed the concept of "amoral familism" to describe what he thought was the basic driving force of individual behavior. It is based on the axiom that it is a personal duty to maximize the material and immediate advantage of the nuclear 34 family, taking it for granted that all others will do the same. Though criticism concerning the representa- tiveness of Banfield's village of study has been raised, most observers tend to agree that there is some truth to his assertion. However, it is important to qualify that familism must not necessarily be amoral, in particular if one recognizes that the poor and powerless Southerner is apathetic and defensive, rather than aggressive, in the pursuit of his own or his family interest. Nevertheless, one can say that through familism, the fatalistic and individualistically-oriented person builds a first shield around himself to protect his existence from an adverse world. In fact, he tries to extend this partially reliable solidarity to include other people, for instance by means of the comparaggio, i.e., by choosing persons richer, more prestigeful, and more powerful than himself as the god-father for his children. A third cultural theme, which has often been described (e.g., LaPalombara 1967), is clientilism; it may be considered yet another, though less efficient, shield of individualistic interests in the face of larger society. Clientelism is a naked give and take. Typically a person gives his vote to a local candidate and in return can count upon an occasional favor, like a recom- mendation for a better job, a hint to a judge in a legal 35 question, or a push to accelerate the granting of an over- due request to the central administration. Schepis (1963) found that in the South the preferential vote in national elections, by means of which one votes for a specific candidate rather than for a political party, is much more common than in the North of Italy. Furthermore, LaPalombara (1967) points out that Clientelism with its reliance on primary personalistic ties has been an obstacle to the development of affiliations not only with political parties, but also with unions and other interest groups where reliance upon more impersonal, secondary ties is required. Possibly a fourth protective shield is constituted by campanelismo, a localite kind of solidarity between the residents of the same town or village. Thus the individual tries to reassure himself in always wider and more distant relationships with others. The more distant the relationship becomes, the less an obligation will be perceived as binding when a conflict of interest occurs. Apparently the majority of lower and lower—middle class Southerners traditionally feel more comfortable when their contact with others remains personalistic. Here, in dealing directly with a familiar person, and not with someone who anonymously represents some awkward generalized rules or laws, they can count upon their famed shrewdness 36 (furbizia). Politics, justice, and organized interests represent what always was considered part of a threatening and unreliable world. That they could potentially sub- stitute a more egalitarian, democratic, and rational approach for a paternalistic and authoritarian one, was hard to understand and to believe. Thus scepticism is a common state of mind in the South. As long as no protest is aroused, obedience and submission produce affiliation (Iacono 1968): A child comes to expect from his parents that they look after him, a worker expects from the 'signore' that he will provide for his support, a citizen expects from government that it will take care of his needs, and, often being disillu- sioned, he hopes in God, in the padre eterno. Finally, if in the industrial and more modern North of the country, the belief is stronger that efficiency and achievement will be rewarded, that individual rights are guaranteed by the State, that personal interests are protected by interest groups, that political participation is important and worthwhile; if there it is felt that the course of events can be rationally analyzed and in part predicted, and therefore it represents no vain effort to set goals to one's activities and pursuits, than it must be acknowledged that a profound cleavage exists between the two Italian cultures. 37 Some Observations on the Role 9f Television in Italy Television in Italy is a centralized institution. Its services are carried out in a monopoly fashion by the Radiotelevisione Italiana (RAI-TV), which is authorized, controlled, and supported by government. A great variety of entertainment, information, and educational programs are carried on two channels to all parts of the country. Since television is conceived as a public service, independent of private interests, only a small number of commercials are broadcast; they are concentrated in a few spots during the day or evening and are never allowed to interrupt an ongoing program. On the average youths watch television more fre- quently than adults. When they are from 11 to 14 years old, i.e., in the age bracket that interests this study, they watch evening programs almost as much as their parents; in addition, they follow afternoon programs that are to a considerable part dedicated to them. Youths of this age judge the programs they watch in the first place as "entertaining", and only secondarily as "interesting" and "instructive". In fact, such individuals are most interested in films, musical-shows, and quiz transmissions, and much less in such programs as newscasts, cultural transmissions, or journalistic inquiries (RAI 1971). ct- .. n .‘v ..A s his '- 38 Though data on the number of people who watch different kinds of programs and on their relative apprecia- tdrni of these are readily available at the RAI itself, so far little is known about any aspects of their impact. In Italy only one major attempt has been made to ascertain some of the effects of television exposure. Mostly through participant observation and open interviews, DeRita (1964) has tried to evaluate such impact in a rural community of the South. She stresses that the contents of television programs generally have little immediate relevance to the problems of life in the local environment, to the point that television watching assumes primarily the function of permitting evasion from reality. She also points out that people often find themselves disoriented in front of the large number of simultaneously-presented and complex messages. Yet, based on her findings, she is convinced that the indirect acquaintanceship with the proposed rules and values of an urban life-style can help, on the one side, the future emigrant to adapt to new environments through earlier vicarious experiences while, on the other, those who remain behind to create locally a new culture (p. 232). Besides offering an opportunity for evasion from reality, empirical evidence confirms the informative role of television messages in developing communities. Next 39 to face-to-face contacts with returning emigrants, television constitutes the major source of detailed information on living conditions in economically more-advanced environ- ments, on the advantages of industrial work, and on alter— native life-styles where, in particular, the norms referring to female conduct tend to be more permissive (Eisermann and Acquaviva 1971). The informative role of television is mostly carried out through journalistic and cultural programs, whereas the role of permitting evasion from reality is played predominantly by entertainment programs. From extensive content analysis of television messages (RAI 1968), it appears that the former are more directly and critically concerned with a social rather than individual reality, whereas entertainment programs show a more optimistic world of fantasy in which the individual tends to be shown without a major focus on his social conditions. Nevertheless, the overall effect stresses the desirability, rather than the drawbacks, of modern urban and industrial life, and reinforces mostly the values of "consumption" as an instrument of well—being, of "success" as a means of self-assertion, and of "labor" as a sign of maturity (RAI 1968). However, while stressing these and similar modern values in substitution of traditional ones, television in Italy only seldomly alludes to more 4O revolutionary values, for instance where they could threaten the established affiliative role of the family as an institution or the prevailing class and power structure. After these necessarily brief observations on the role of television in Italy, and after having characterized the community setting that was chosen for study, the following chapter will treat the methodological aspects involved in the research design. CHAPTER IV METHODOLOGY The distinctive trait of this study is its causal approach to the problem of television influence upon cultural attitudinal innovativeness. The purpose is to test the adequacy of a theoretical model to describe the causal process of television influence upon cultural attitudinal innovativeness. Although in Chapter II a set of hypotheses, on which this model rests, has been listed, it should be clear that the goal of this study is neither to confirm or disconfirm individual propositions in the usual sense of asking whether a given relationship between any pair of variables should or should not be attributed to chance, nor to draw any conclusions concerning strength of relationship between variables. Causal analysis has been used as a theory building tool according to the most recent methodological orientations. What is tested are not single hypotheses but an interconnected set of propositions which are summarized in the model. The question is how adequately does the model fit pertinent empirical data, and which changes should be introduced 41 42 into the linkage system of variables specified in the model in order to obtain a better fit. The present chapter deals with the methodological approach. First, operationalization and measurement of the four variables in the theoretical model will be dis- cussed; second, sampling procedures, questionnaire and data-gathering will be explained; and third, the analytic scheme used in the elaboration of data will be outlined. Operationalization and Measurement of VariaEIes The operationalization and measurement of the four variables—-television exposure, dissatisfaction with occupational chances, achievement motivation, and cultural attitudinal innovativeness--pose problems of varying complexity. Television exposure is operationalized by the frequency of watching television in an average week, and has been measured in the usual way, i.e., by means of a forced-choice question. Yet such measurement ascertains only the elementary quantitative aspect of television watching and ignores the more subtle qualitative aspects of program choice, attention, or memorization. Since results from previous research (e.g., Donohew 1967:685, and Korsching and Burdge 1972:11) indicate that the effect of communication on receptiveness to change is more evident when the content of communica- tion rather than the amount of communication is analyzed, 43 the present study introduces a second, qualitative consider- ation in terms of program content. Specifically, frequency of exposure to entertainment programs is distinguished from frequency of exposure to informative programs, so as to enable us to compare their respective relationships with the intervening and dependent variables. In order to obtain a separate index of exposure to each kind of program, only a selection of the more representative examples for each type of program has been considered, while those programs that could not clearly be subsumed under either type were ignored in the analysis. Thus, for exposure to entertainment programs a summary index of frequency of watching: (a) films and telefilms, (b) sports transmissions, (c) musical shows, and (d) the popular commercial show spot Carosello, has been adopted; while for exposure to informative programs, a summary index of frequency of watching: (a) newscasts, (b) cultural transmissions, and (c) documentaries or journalistic inquiries, has been elaborated. These two types of programs were presumed to be distinct in that the first conveys predominantly messages that solicit an evasion from reality or projection into an ideal world of imagination, whereas the second conveys predominantly messages that should help the viewer to orient himself in his actually, given immediate or more distant social involvements. 44 Dissatisfaction with occupational chances is operationalized in terms of a typological construct that is based upon (1) each adolescent's level of idealistic occupational aspirations, (2) his level of perceived realistic occupational expectations for the future, as well as (3) his level of departure from perceived occupa- tional attainment of his father. Following the scheme represented in Figure 5, this construct simultaneously accounts for: (a) The direction of the discrepancy between level of idealistic occupational aspirations (IA) and level of perceived realistic expectations for the future (RE), in the columns; and (b) The direction of the discrepancy between level of perceived realistic occupational expectations for the future (RE) and level of departure, i.e., perceived occupational attainment of the father (FA), in the rows. It was assumed that in cases where idealistic aspira- tion exceeds realistic expectation, dissatisfaction would be greater than in cases of the opposite.1 Similarly, it was assumed that in cases where father's level of attain- ment exceeds realistic expectations, dissatisfaction with occupational chances would be greater than in opposite cases. 1This assumption is in line with Robaye's (1957: 194-5) empirically based characterization of personality types depending upon the differential relationships between level of aspiration and level of expectation. Accordingly, individuals with low aspirations and high expectations are generally satisfied; individuals with high aspirations and low expectations are usually very frustrated and discontent; while individuals with high aspirations and expectations, or low aspirations and expectations, are those intermediate in their exposure to psychological stress. 45 DISSATISFACTION INDEX 1 Index 2- High Medium Low IA> RE IA = RE IA< RE High RE < FA I II III Medium RE = FA II III IV LOW RE > FA III IV V Types: f* I = 9 II = 11 III = 42 IV = 19 V = 17 N = 98 * Data for 2 cases out of a total of 100 were incomplete. Figure 5.--Typological Construct of Dissatisfaction with Occupational Chances in Terms of its Sources. 46 Based on these assumptions, two preliminary indices of dissatisfaction were developed, each with a range of 1-3 suggesting low, medium or high dissatis- faction. These indices were confronted in the matrix shown in Figure 5 and individuals were assigned to their respective cells. The overall index of dissatisfaction with occupa- tional chances was derived through an operation of prag- matic reduction (Lazarsfeld and Barton 1951:174) from the frequency distribution in the matrix by adding scores from the original indices. This overall index distinguishes five types of adolescents according to their general dissatisfaction with occupational chances. These five types are labeled by Roman numerals. Measurements for the two dimensions of overall dissatisfaction with occupational chances were obtained by having adolescents assign prestige ratings for own aspired occupation, own expected occupation, and for father's present or last occupation, using the rank of ten standard occupations as a yardstick. As seen in Figure 5, the frequency distribution obtained for the five types of adolescents turned out to be approximately normal in shape. The next variable, achievement motivation, is operationalized in terms of 12 dichotomous items which are listed in Table 3 of the Appendix. Guidelines for ,. I‘. n. . o I 1’! 1|! ‘l 'J 47 the design of these items were Kahl's (1965) work on measurement of "achievement orientations", in particular where he is concerned with an "activity" and "occupational primacy" dimension, as well as Smith and Inkeles' (1966) work on the development of a "Comparative Socio-Psychological Measurement of Individual Modernity", specially where they operationalize the "efficacy" theme. All scale items were reformulated to make sense in terms of the everyday experiences of adolescents in the research locale. The format is of alternative statements, where agreement with one is interpreted as indicating high achievement motivation, whereas agreement with the other as indicating low achieve- ment motivation. The sum of scores representing high achievement motivation constitutes the measurement of this variable. The last variable, cultural attitudinal innovative- ness, was at first operationalized in terms of a preliminary pool of 20 items which were designed in the same format as the achievement motivation items (Table 4 in the Appendix). Again Smith and Inkeles' aforementioned work served as a source, along with Schnaiberg's (1970) explorations in measuring modernism. Vincelli's (1958) and Lombardi— Satriani's (1968) studies of cultural themes in the Italian South, plus unpublished data on the development of social character in Sardinia (Danbury and Pinna, 1965), helped to focalize the statements to the specific cultural setting. 48 As has been pointed out in the second section of Chapter I, cultural attitudinal innovativeness should not be presumed on a priori grounds, in particular in "culture-specific" research, to be a unidimensional phenomenon. Therefore, in order to elaborate a circum- stantially valid measurement device, responses obtained to the 20 initial statements were intercorrelated (with phi-coefficients); the resulting correlation matrix (Table 5 in the Appendix) was submitted to principal axis factor analysis with subsequent varimax rotations (Table 6 in the Appendix). Findings from this collateral analysis will be discussed in the last chapter. At this point, it may suffice to note that the item analysis clearly revealed multidimensionality and that it led to the tentative definition and labeling of two major dimensions of cultural attitudinal innovative- ness, namely: I. Clientelism-Meritocragy, and II. Dependence-Emancipation. These labels reassume the latent common meaningcf the items with the highest, and at the same time relatively pure, loadings on the underlying factors. For the first dimension, these items stress such aspects as: (1) affiliation vs. accomplishment (item number 5 in Table 4 of the Appendix); (2) authority vs. democracy (number 13); (3) activity vs.passivity (number 18); and (4) defensive egotism vs. cooperation (number 14). For the second dimension, they stress such aspects as: 49 (1) sex-role inequality vs. equality (number 12); (2) fatalism or predetermined future vs. open future (number 19); (3) child dependence vs. child emancipation (number 11); (4) altruistic vs. selfish interests (number 16); (5) women's dependence vs. emancipation (number 9); and (6) institutionalized road to success or formal education vs. own road to success or furbizia (number 1).1 Among the two factors, the first dimension refers predominantly to aspects of the process of cultural attitudinal innovativeness in the public sphere, and proposes a switch in reliance from primary to secondary relationships. The second dimension refers predominantly to aspects of the process of cultural attitudinal innovative— ness in the private sphere, and seems to be based most of all upon an increasing wish for self-assertion and for social justice among adolescents. Parallel and supporting evidence for the need to account for a strong emancipation factor within the modernization syndrome is reported by Schnaiberg (1970). For each of these two major dimensions of cultural attitudinal innovativeness, separate measurements were elaborated by summing the "modern" scores of the critical lContradicting expectations, adolescents who other- wise were modern in their attitudes thought formal schooling less important than furbizia (shrewdness) for getting ahead in life. Possibly, as long as in an environment of limited opportunities, a minimum of occupational and material success cannot be taken as granted, education is not valued in itself as in more advanced environments, but represents an instrumental means (as any other) to assure a decent job. 50 items, and each dimension was independently introduced as an alternative conception of cultural attitudinal innova- tiveness in the theoretical model specified in Chapter II. Sample, Questionnaire, and Data-Gathering The population from which a representative sample of respondents has been drawn, was defined as all male adolescents registered in lower grade high schools in the community area of Manfredonia. This definition has the advantage that, within certain limits, it assures control for otherwise possibly interferring variables, which would have been extraneous to the theoretical model, like urbanity, education, sex, and age. From the specified population, as listed by the lower grade high school records of 930 entries, a systematic sample of 100 youths was drawn. The following brief characterization of the sample, based upon the marginal analysis of data from the interviews, provides the back- ground for interpretation of the causal analysis results. More than four-fifths of the sampled adolescents were in the usual, expected age-bracket of 11 to 14 years, corresponding to the three classes of the obligatory lower grade high school system. The remaining respondents were somewhat overage; but being overage in their classes is a rather common phenomenon in places like Manfredonia, where two-thirds cf the respondents reported to have had 51 work experiences besides school. Almost half of all boys had worked for pay outside the family, mostly in commerce and tourism, second in the crafts, third in construction or small factories, and fourth, in agriculture. The need to help earn the family living is due to the fact that families still tend to be large. All respondents have sibblings: 30 per cent have one or two, 38 per cent three or four, 25 per cent from five to seven, and 7 per cent eight or even more. This constitutes one reason why few mothers have a job, and apparently why adolescent sons rather than their mothers are counted upon to help increase the family income. Generally, mothers' educational level tends to be somewhat lower than fathers', but both levels have in the great majority of cases already been surpassed by their lower grade high school sons. Only 13 per cent of the mothers, compared with 19 per cent of the fathers, had entered or passed lower grade high school. The developmental trend in the community is illustrated by comparing grandfathers' with fathers' present or last occupational activities. While the great majority of grandfathers were reportedly self-employed, the majority of fathers now have dependent jobs. Grand- fathers' work was predominantly in agriculture and fishing, second in commerce and services, and least often in industry. Fathers' work, instead, is predominantly in 52 commerce and services, while much less, and to an equal extent, in industry or agriculture and fishing. On the one side, these trends reflect gradual urbanization, while on the other, a slow integration into industrial life of an originally rural population. Since industrialization is only at its beginning, work chances in town are limited. In fact, one-fourth of the adolescents judged future work chances in town on the unsatisfactory side, one-third judged them on the satisfactory side, whereas the remaining were undecided. Two-fifths held that emigration is necessary to get ahead in life, and a substantial one-third already have made the emigration plans. These findings indicate that indeed considerable dissatisfaction must prevail in this age- group. This situation is also reflected in the adolescent's eventual voting intentions. More than one-third of the 90 youths who answered the question would cast "protest votes", if they had the vote today: 29 per cent would vote for the Communist Party, and 7 per cent would vote for the Neo-Fascist Party, the remaining intending to vote for the governmental parties. In sum, the characteristics of the sample indicate that Manfredonia may indeed have provided a suitable setting to test the present model: Half of the adolescents watch television every day (or almost); there is considerable dissatisfaction with the occupational future; many youths 53 are motivated to emigrate once grown; and a sizeable number are discontent with the political status quo. Together, this leads us to expect a fair range of cultural attitudinal innovativeness. Those questions from the interview schedule which are important for this study are reproduced at the end of the Appendix in English translation. After ample pretest- ing in location, the questionnaire was administered in late Summer, 1971 by three students of a reputed Milanese school of social work. All three originally were from Manfredonia, and thus could speak the local dialect when necessary. Interviews either took place by common agreement at a local public library, or interviewers called at the homes of respondents. Analytic Scheme for Testing the Model In general terms, two events are said to be causally interrelated when the occurence of the earlier event is regarded as a condition for the occurence of the later event. The four variable model in Chapter II specifies a number of causal links between pairs of variables. These causal links, with their underlying propositions, represent working assumptions on the theoretical level of analysis about the relationship between television exposure and cultural attitudinal innovativeness. They can never actually be demonstrated empirically (Blalock 1964:173); 54 however, based upon empirical evidence, their relative plausibility can be evaluated. In fact, based on a plausibility criterion, the causal links in the original model can be erased one at a time to specify alternative linkage sequences between the four variables. A slightly different theory on the indirect causal impact of television exposure on cultural attitudinal innovativenss would correspond to each alter- native linkage sequence, or modified version of the original model. The purpose in the analytical part of this study is to evaluate the merits of each modified version of the model, with its respective theory, in explaining the empirically-ascertained relationships between the four variables. Toward this aim, two interrelated analytic techniques have been adopted. The first is Simon—Blalock causal model analysis, which has been employed with the purpose: ....to make causal inferences concerning the adequacy of causal models, at Ieast in the sense that we can proceed by eliminating inadequate models that make predictions that are not consistent with the data (Blalock 1964:62; also Simon 1954). For each modified version of the original model, prediction equations are computed on the basis of correla- tion coefficients between pairs of variables. Thereafter, those models are rejected which produce prediction equations that are inconsistent with the actual relationship between the variables included in the model. 55 In detail, the degree of inconsistency between a predicted and an actual relationship between two variables is measured by a test of goodness-of-fit. For example, given two variables x and y that both depend from a third variable 2; and if 2 showed a correlation coefficient of .40 with x and of .50 with y; one would predict from these associations a correlation of (.40)(.50)=(.20) between x and y. If now we were to ascertain empirically an actual correlation of .35 between variables x and y (and if we were willing to make the necessary assumptions exposed below), we would have to decide whether a difference of (.35)4(.20)=(.15) between the actual and predicted correla- tion coefficients does or does not satisfy our requests for goodness of fit. Basically standards for decisions concerning goodness-of-fit are arbitrary. Yet there is some consensus to consider any difference larger than .10 between a predicted and an actually ascertained correlation coefficient as indicative of association between the two dependent variables. Once a particular model has been inferred along these lines as the most adequate one, our second analytical technique is adopted. It consists in employing path- analysis (Duncan 1966; Land 1969) with the purpose of strengthening the argument that the relationships between the variables in the inferred model are causal ones. To 56 demonstrate the plausibility of causal relationships, correlation coefficients, which had been introduced into the Simon-Blalock prediction equations, cannot provide any cues for they measure only the degree of association between variables. More specifically, in the prediction equations they measure only the goodness—of-fit around the regression line. In order to strengthen the argument of causality, the amount of change in the dependent variable(s) which is produced by standarized changes in the independent variable(s) needs to be known. This information can be obtained through the computation of path coefficients or standard partial regression coefficients (analogous to beta-weights), which indicate the unique effects of the independent variable(s) in the model. The required calculations have been carried out by means of the formulas recommended by Hilgendorf and others (1967): _ r12'r13r23 B _ 12.3 2 l-(r23) gives the path coefficient from variable 1 to variable 2, where variable 3 is held constant; and 57 r _( r13 H14)( 23 r24) _ J} 2 12.34 ‘ I _(_2_3 r24)2 gives the path coefficient from variable 1 to variable 2, where variables 3 and 4 are held constant. Four assumptions must be set forth to warrant the application of these causal analysis techniques for the purposes of model construction and testing: 1. Each successive dependent variable in the original model, as well as in its alternative versions, is either directly or indirectly caused by one or more variables which preceed, and by none that follows, in temporal sequence. All variations in each dependent variable can be allocated among the independent variables that have explicitly been introduced into the model; in other terms, exogenous causes of each of the four variables are uncorrelated with the other variables in the model. Relationships between the variables in the model(s) are additive and linear. 58 4. All postulated causal links in the model(s) are assymmetrical, or causation is uni-directional in all cases.1 These assumptions should not be considered distinc- tive to Simon-Blalock or path analysis, since they are part of the common logic of most techniques of causal analysis. Concerning the first assumption, it has been shown in Chapter II that the postulated temporal sequence of the variables (television exposure+dissatisfaction with occupa- tional chances and achievement motivation+cultural attitudinal innovativeness) is reasonably justified by theory. Referring to the second assumption, it will be recalled that the confounding effect of some critical exogenous variables (i.e., sex, age, education, and urbanity) has been purposefully standardized. Presuming that each dependent variable may indeed be regarded as completely determined by some combination of variables in the system specified by the model, the prediction equations for the four-variable model in Chapter II (Figure 3) are the follow— ing: (a) X1 = el (b) X2 = b21X1 + e2 (c) X3 = b3lxl + e3 (d) x4 = b42.3X2 + b43.2X3 + e4 1 In recent years various efforts have been made to adapt statistical procedures to situations where certain ones of these assumptions cannot be met. However, calcula- tions soon become very complex. 59 Equation (a) specifies that television exposure (X ) is a cause of the three other variables in the model, 1 but itself is not caused by either one. Equations (b) and (c) state that both dissatisfaction with occupational chances (X2) and achievement motivation (X3) are caused by television exposure (X1). Equation (d) indicates that cultural attitudinal innovativeness (X4)is caused jointly by dissatisfaction with occupational chances (X2) and by achievement motivation (X3). Regarding the third assumption concerning linearity of relationship between variables stated above, evidence concerning the shape of regression lines will be reported in the next chapter. Finally, the fourth assumption, i.e. the requirement of uni-directional causation, most clearly introduces a heuristic simplification into the complex relationships at issue, for it excludes the presence of any reciprocal effects. Nevertheless, this last assumption may be accepted together with the preceding ones as long as the present effort does not claim to be more than a tentative first step in the direction of the construction of a theoretical model that links television exposure with cultural attitudinal innovativeness. The following chapter reports the results of the causal analysis of the alterna- tive versions of the original model. CHAPTER V FINDINGS The adequacy of the causal model will be tested in six different versions. While the intervening variables, dissatisfaction with occupational chances (DS) and achievement motivation (AM), will remain unchanged, the independent as well as the dependent variable will vary. The independent variables, one at a time, are: (a) general television exposure (TV); or (b) exposure to informative television programs (Tvinf.); or (c) exposure to enter- tainment television programs (TV ); while the dependent ent. variable is either: (a) the "Clientelism/meritocracy" dimension of cultural attitudinal innovativeness (CAI I) or (b) the "dependence/emancipation" dimension of cultural attitudinal innovativeness (CAI II). From the three modalities of the independent variable and the two modalities of the dependent variable, six somewhat different models were derived by combination, which were separately submitted to test on the basis of the empirical evidence. 60 61 Relationships Between the Variables Figure 6 presents the six models and reports, next to the bi-directional arrows, the product-moment correla- tion coefficients that characterize each link. It will be noticed that in models A and B, in models C and D, and in models E and F, the first half of the model is identical, because in each pair the independent as well as the intervening variables are the same. Similarly, the second half ofrodels A, C, and E is identical, as well as the second half of models B, D, and F, since here the intervening variables and the dependent variable are the same. A first scrutiny of the correlation coefficients suggests that the relationships between the variables tends to be rather low, which means that television watch- ing must be attributed a weeker influence than expected. Several correlation coefficients are very close to zero, or even negative, indicating an inverse relationship between certain pairs of variables. Before testing the causal models, it is important to outline the major tendencies that emerge from Figure 6. 1. While there is only an almost negligible, although positive, association between general television exposure and the two dimensions of cultural attitudinal innovativeness (models A and B), this relationship is brought to focus once exposure to different program content is A. Television Exposure on Clientelism/Meritocracy DS I / TV CAI I .30 .17 .07 \\§1\/ AM E. Television Entertainment on Clientelism/Meritocracy os -74\ .13 .18 .26 TVent l > CAI I ' .09 .23 \L .07 AM B. Television Exposure on Dependence/Emancipation DS 4\ .06 .06 04 O6 £{////:f:2 D. Television Information on Dependence/Emancipation /\ \V O b H H H TV / DS A .19 .06 .26 TV. .< >. CAI II inf. -.04 ‘7 .17 ’ - 02 w 14/ AM F. Television Entertainment on Dependence/Emancipation DS ’/\ .13 .06 .26 TV t < >ACAI II en ‘ -.04 / .23 \ v -.02 \ I , ‘AAM Figure 6 .--Product-Moment Intercorrelations of Variables for Different Combinations of Independent and Dependent Variables with Constant Intervening Variables.* * R > .20 has a p < .05; r > .26 has a p < .01 with N - 98. Due to incomplete data, two cases from the total sample of 100 had to be excluded from the analysis. 63 accounted for (models C to F). This finding is in line with Donohew's (1967), and Korsching and Burdge's (1972) results, which have been cited earlier. 1.1 In particular the relationship between television exposure to informative programs and attitudes concerning "clientelism/ meritocracy" (model C), compared to the relationship between television exposure to entertainment programs and attitudes concerning the same dimension (model E), become more clearcut. It would seem that adolescents who watch informative programs (such as newscasts, cultural transmissions, and documentaries or journalistic inquiries), rather than those who watch entertainment programs (such as films and telefilms, sports transmissions, musical shows, and carosello), are the individuals who believe in meritocracy as a criterion of social advancement. 1.2 In contrast, it appears to make little difference which type of program an adoles- cent watches for the modernity of his attitudes concerning the second dimension of cultural attitudinal innovativeness. 64 Exposure to informative programs and exposure to entertainment programs show a similarly slight, and even negative, association with attitudes concerning individual "dependence/emancipation". The greater rigidity of this attitude cluster may be especially salient among adolescents. Also the relationships between general tele- vision exposure and dissatisfaction with occupational chances, or with achievement motivation, become more clearcut once program content is accounted for. Thus general tele- vision exposure shows only a very slight, although positive association with either intervening variable (models A and B); whereas larger correlation coefficients suggest that exposure to informative programs, but also to entertainment programs, is related to a moder- ate extent with dissatisfaction with occupational chances and also with achievement motivation (models C to F). This would indicate that adolescents most exposed to informative programs are generally not those most exposed to enter- tainment programs, and vice versa. 65 3. Dissatisfaction with occupational chances shows a somewhat stronger association with either cultural attitudinal innovativeness dimension than does achievement motivation. Yet here again, the strength of association is greater in the wider public realm to which "clientelism/ meritocracy" refers, than in the narrower, private or family realm of "dependence/emancipation" (models A, C, and E versus models B, D, and F). This probably attests once more to the greater rigidity of the latter attitude cluster among adolescents. 4. Lastly, there appears to be a comparatively marked relationship between adolescents' dissatisfaction with occupational chances and their achievement motivation. In other words, these preliminary findings show that probably the influence of television upon cultural attitudinal innovativeness depends (1) upon program content watched, and (2) upon whether the reference of attitudes is to primary (e.g., familistic) or to secondary (e.g., non-familistic) relationships. Before we turn to the test and discussion of the adequacy of the causal model for an explanation of the above relationships, two points must be raised. The first concerns the size of the product-moment correlation coeffi- cients. Considering the sample size (N=98), only 3 out of 66 the total of 17 different pairs of variables recurring in the set of six models were found associated to a degree that, according to statistical standards (that is, the .05 level of probability), could not be attributed to chance. Among these, the strongest relationship was found between television exposure to informative programs and innova- tiveness on the "Clientelism/meritocracy" dimension (model C), next between dissatisfaction with occupational chances and achievement motivation (constant in models .1— A to F), and last, between television exposure to d’ entertainment programs and achievement motivation (model E). Clearly, general experience in attitude studies suggests that substantial levels of correlation are seldom obtained. Thus even minor correlations should not necessarily be disregarded, as might be done in other types of research. Interpreted with caution, they might at least indicate directions for further research and help toward a critical refinement of measurement instru- ments, which in this field are frequently wanting. The second point to be raised concerns the assump- tion of linearity on which product-moment correlation coefficients, and for that matter, Simon-Blalock causal analysis as well as path analysis, rest. Table 7 in the Appendix reports eta-coefficients that correspond to the recurring product-moment correlation coefficients in Figure 6. For almost all 17 confrontations of variables, eta-coefficients are considerably larger than product- 67 moment correlation coefficients, indicating curvilinearity in the relationships, and this to an extent that statistical tests of significance of deviation from linearity appeared redundant to report. However, pursuing the point yet farther, tracing the means of the independent variable per categories of the dependent variable for each confrontation, showed that the regression line in most cases did not even produce monotonic curvilinear slopes, as assumed by eta-coefficients. Because of this, not only eta-coefficients are reported in Table 7 cfifthe Appendix, but also probabilities of occurance of the respective F-statistics from one—way analyses of variance. Altogether, the results show that the coefficients of association in Figure 6 must be con— sidered and interpreted with due reservations. They are all, to varying degrees, underestimates of the degree of association due to curvilinearity. Testing Alternative Models The Simon-Blalock goodness-of-fit procedure requires that each single theoretically-postulated link in a causal model is checked for spuriousness, i.e., the prediction is tested whether the particular relationship between a pair of variables is due to the causal effect of a third variable on this pair. 68 This procedure is statistically presented in Table 1. For instance, prediction equations (1a) for models A to F have been calculated to test the adequacy of alternative models where the relationship between X2 = dissatisfaction with occupational chances, and X3 = achievement motivation, is considered spurious due to the causal effect of X1 = 7 general television exposure in models A and B, exposure to informative programs in models C and D, or exposure to entertainment programs in models E and F, on this pair. Similarly, prediction equations (lb) have been elaborated to test the adequacy of another causal model alternative where the relationship between X1 = general television exposure in models A and B, exposure to informative programs in models C and D, or exposure to entertainment programs in models E and F with X2 = dissatisfaction with occupa- tional chances, is retained as spurious due to the effect of X3 = achievement motivation. Once the model that best fits the empirical data concerning the first half of each model A to F in Figure 6, has been ascertained by means of equations (1a), (lb), and (1c) in Table l, the causality or spuriousness of the theoretically-postulated links in the second half of these models is determined through equations (1d) and (1e). 69 TABLE l.--Prediction Equations for Goodness—of-Fit Tests for Models of Television Influence on Cultural Attitudinal Innovativeness. Model Prediction Predicted Actual Difference A. Television Exposure on Clientelism/Meritocragy: 1a. r12 x r13 = r23 .06 x .06 = .00 .26 .26 lb. rl3 x r23 = r12 .06 x .26 = .02 .06 .04* 1c. r12 x r23 — r13 .06 x .26 = .02 .06 .04* 1d. r23 x r24 - r34 .26 x .18 = .05 .07 .02* 1e. r23 x r34 — r24 .26 x .07 = .02 .18 .16 B. Television Exposure on Dependence/Emangipation: la. r12 x 1'13 — r23 .06 x .06 = .00 .26 .26 lb. rl3 x r23 - r12 .06 x .26 = .02 .06 .04* 1c. r12 x r23 = r13 .06 x .26 = .02 .06 .04* 1d. r23 x r24 = r34 .26 x .06 = -.02 .02 -.04* 1e. r23 x r34 = r24 .26 x-.02 = -.01 .06 .07* C. Television Information on Clientelism/Meritocragy: la. r12 x r13 r23 .19 x .17 = .03 .26 .23 1b. rl3 x r23 r12 .17 x .26 = .04 .19 .15 1c. r12 x r23 r13 .19 x .26 = .05 .17 .12 1d. r23 x r24 r34 .26 x .18 = .05 .07 .02* 1e. r23 x r34 r24 .26 x .07 = .02 .18 .16 1f. r12 x r24 r14 .19 x .18 = .03 .30 .27 lg. rl3 x r23 r24 = r14 .17 x .26 x .18=.05 .30 .25 D. Television Information on Dependence/Emancipation: 1a. r12 x r13 r23 .19 x .17 = .03 .26 .23 lb. rl3 x r23 r12 .17 x .26 = .04 .19 .15 1c. r12 x r23 r13 .19 x .26 = .05 .17 .12 1d. r23 x r24 r34 .26 x .06 = .02 -.02 -.04* 1e. r23 x r34 r24 .26 x-.02 = -.01 .06 .07* E. Television Entertainment on Clientelism/Meritocracy: la. r12 x r13 r23 .13 x .23 = .03 .26 .23 1b. rl3 x r23 r12 .23 x .26 = .06 .13 .07* 1c. r12 x r23 r13 .13 x .26 = .03 .23 .20 1d. r23 x r24 r34 .26 x .18 = .05 .07 .02* 1e. r23 x r34 r24 .26 x .07 = .02 .18 .16 1f. r13 x r23 r24 = r14 .23 x .26 x .18=.05 .09 .04* F. Television Entertainment on Dependence/Emancipation: la. r12 x r13 = r23 .13 x .23 = .03 .26 .23 lb. r13 x r23 = r12 .23 x .26 = .06 .13 .07* 1c. r12 x r23 = r13 .13 x .26 = .03 .23 .20 1d. r23 x r24 = r34 .26 x .06 = .02 -.02 -.04* 1e. r23 x r34 = r24 .26 x-.02 = -.01 .06 .07* + . Key to the variables in Variable 1 Variable 2 Variable 3 Variable 4 this table: (in Models A and B) (in Models C and D) (in Models E and F) (in all Models) General Television Exposure Exposure to Informative Programs Exposure to Entertainment Programs Dissatisfaction with Occupational Chances Achievement Motivation (in all Models) Clientelism/Meritocracy Dimension of Cultural Attitudinal Innovativeness (in Models A, C and E) Dependence/Emancipation Dimension of Cultural Attitudinal Innovativeness (in Models B, D and F) i A "good fit" in these cases means that we can erase the causal link between these two variables in the system. 70 Finally, in cases where some systematic indirect linkage sequence from Xl to X4 is established, it remains to be checked whether this sequence, or instead a direct link between the independent and dependent variable, better fits the empirical evidence (equations Lfahd lg). Here the prediction equation has to be computed that tests the adequacy of a model alternative which specifies that the E relationship between X1 and X4 is spurious due to the simultaneous causal effect of the two intervening variables, X2 and X3, on this pair. Figure 7 summarizes diagrammatically the results from Table l. Concerning the left half of models A to F, it shows first of all that the standard intervening variables (DS and AM) are positively related, even when their common variance that must be attributed to the causal effect of the independent variable in its modalities (TV or Tvinf. or Tvent.) is partialed out. It shows further that general television exposure (TV) is not causally related to either of the intervening variables (DS and AM). However, once the content of the programs watched is considered, television exposure is likely to produce consequences for the adolescent who watches the screen. Apparently, the more he watches informative programs (TV. ), the more he will become dissatisfied inf. with his occupational chances (DS), but also the more his achievement motivation will increase. A. Television E xposure on Clientelism/Meritocracy DS A\ TF CAI I \/ AM C. Television I nformation on Clientelism/Meritocracy DS / \ TF. inf. 2‘CAI I \/ AM E. Television E ntertainment on Clientelism/Meritocracy DS /\ TV CAI I ent. AM Figure 71 B. Television Exposure on Dependence/Emancipation TV DS /\ CAI II D. Television Information on Dependence/Emancipation TVinf. DS 7/\ CAI II F. Television Entertainment on Dependence/Emancipation TV ent. DS /A 7 .--Results from the Attempt to Derive Models of Television Influence on Cultural Attitudinal CAI II Innovativeness on the Basis of Simon-Blalock Goodness-of- Fit Tests. 72 The consequence of exposure to entertainment programs (TV ) appears to be distinct, for it causes ent. first of all a rise in achievement motivation (AM) and only indirectly, at a subsequent stage, a rise in dissatis— faction with occupational chances (DS). Thus, in the former case one would have to acknowledge the likelihood N P of a simultaneous impact of the independent variable upon the intervening variables, while in the latter case the likelihood of a successive impact, first to achievement " ."’\M . "'7 I ‘rkm'fi motivation and thereafter to dissatisfaction with occupa- tional chances. Concerning the right half of the models A to F, Figure 7 shows, on the one hand, that dissatisfaction with occupational chances (DS) causally affects the modern- ization of attitudes on the "Clientelism/meritocracy" dimension (CAI I), while achievement motivation does not; on the other hand, it indicates that neither of these intervening variables produces a causal link with the modernization of attitudes on the "dependence/emancipation" dimension (CAI II). Finally, looking at the total results for each of the models A to F, it is seen that only for two of the models some causal connection between the independent and the dependent variable could be established. Specific- ally, in model C the major causal link was found to be a direct one from exposure to informative programs (TVinf ) 73 to a modernization of attitudes concerning "clientelism/ meritocracy" (CAI I). This direct link is supplemented by an indirect linkage sequence leading from exposure to informative programs (TV. through both intervening inf') variables (DS and AM), and among these two from dissatis- faction with occupational chances (DS) to "clientelism/ meritocracy" (CAI I). In model E, instead, there is no direct causal link between exposure to entertainment programs (TV ) and "clientelism/meritocracy"(CAI I), ent. the indirect linkage sequence leading from the independent variable (TVe ) through achievement motivation (AM) to nt. dissatisfaction with occupational chances (DS), and from there to the dependent variable (CAI I). Path Analysis It seems important to submit these last two models (C and E) to path analysis in order to find out how far the amount of variation in each temporally subsequent variable is produced by standardized variations in the preceding variable(s). A series of prediction equations generated by models C and E in Figure 7 were tested by comparing pre- dicted path coefficients with actually, i.e., empirically- obtained path coefficients. Table 2 presents the results of this analysis and shows that all the prediction equations were confirmed; while Figure 8 shows these results in con- junction with the respective models. Comparing path 74 .Honpm mcHHmEmm ow poomejm .OHoN 0p Hence we panchm mpomflmz mpcm .1 mo. .0 n mm.ean cm. 0 x mm.eab me. o x ma.amn me. o x ma.smn mo. .0 n N.emn No. .0 n m.emn as. o x m.amn ea. 0 x m.smn mm. o x H.Nmn em. 0 x H.Nmn em. 0 x H.mmb mm. o x H.mmn em. 0 x m.man me. o x m.man so. .0 u m.man we. 0 x m.mab Hmsooa empoaemnm cpomsgm Hmspoa pmpoaemnm 20aumsgm pcmflofimmoou oboe >omnoouHHmZ\EmHHmuc0HHO co pcmECAMbnmocm conH>mHmB .m ucmaoauomoo some %UMH00pHHmE\EmHHmucmHHO co cowmeH0mcH conH>mHmB .U .musomoomm xoonHm IcOEHm ecu Hmumm mmmcm>flum>occH Hmcflooufluud amusuaso co mocmoamcH coflmfl>mame mo mamooz 039 we ompmumcmw mcoflbmsvm cofluowomum mo muoEEom|1.m mom¢e 75 .mmocm>flum>occH Hmcflooufloum Hopouaou co mocmoawcH coflmfl>cfime mo maoooz 03% mo mflmwamce Lummll. m muomflm mx mx (\za, . ma m.em \ as u A \ mo. u (n n\ .mca H HANUHHOM. H MN.VHQ” >8 a map x me. u mas somnoouflwwz komnoouflumz \Emflawucmflau co ucmEcfimuHmucm coflmfl>oflwe .m \Emflamucwflau co cofluceuowcH coflmw>mam9 .U 76 coefficients there with the corresponding product-moment correlation coefficients in Figure 6 (models C and E), we notice that the direct effect of exposure to informative programs (TV. inf ) on "Clientelism/meritocracy" (CAI I) prevails at the same level even when the effects of dissatisfaction with occupational chances (DS) and achieve— ment motivation (AM) are controlled. Similarly, the slight effect of exposure to entertainment programs (TVe ) upon nt. "Clientelism/meritocracy" is not reduced when controlling dun). 3“. ‘fi_fl'tg' ' for the influence of the intervening variables. Further- more, the direct effect of dissatisfaction with occupational chances (DS) upon "Clientelism/meritocracy" remains about the same when either one or both antecedent variables are controlled. These results, however, have to be taken with some prudence, since it is difficult to judge how much the lack of support for the assumption of linearity of relationships between variables might have distorted the chain of causal inference. Synthesis of Findings Synthesizing the present findings, a few main observations emerge. First, television exposure seems to be a variable of scarce explanatory power for the present purposes of explaining innovativeness in cultural attitudes, for it cancels out the effect of more incisive sub-variables. In fact, exposure to different program 77 content appears to have different consequences for the adolescent viewer in the locale that was studied. Second, these consequences do not affect the innovation of cultural attitudes indiscriminantly; rather, certain attitude clusters should be regarded as more per— sistent in the face of particular television influences sf“ than others, especially if they are relevant to the immediate interests of the adolescent, like those pertain— ing to his primary relationships. Third, exposure to informative programs has a major causal impact directly upon the innovation of attitudes in the direction of a belief in meritocracy, rather than in Clientelism as a means of social advance- ment. The same final result is produced by television exposure to entertainment programs only indirectly, through a strengthening of achievement motivation to an increase in dissatisfaction with occupational chances. But also in the first causal relationship, these intervening variables play a role, however of only secondary importance.l Together, these results tend to demonstrate that the intervening effects postulated in this study cannot be ignored, if one tries to explain innovation processes The directionality of the relationship between the intervening variables in this case cannot be decided by our method since both variables depend upon the pre- ceeding variable, exposure to informative television programs. In fact, even an interdependency of both variables remains a possibility. 78 of cultural attitudes among adolescents in a developing social setting. But most importantly, the evidence indicates that television influence upon cultural attitudinal inno— vativeness is tenuous, and in any event a complex matter. CHAPTER VI CONCLUSIONS Summary F‘ The main objective of this study was to single 2 out the causal effect of television exposure upon cultural attitudinal innovativeness among youths in a developing environment. An attempt was made to ascertain in how far this effect should be interpreted either as a direct one or as an indirect one which is mediated by dissatisfaction with occupational chances and/or achieve— ment motivation. For this purpose a causal model was derived from theory which hypothetically was to explain the process by which television modernizes cultural attitudes. It was based upon a seriesVer those aspects which discriminate between tra- dltcnal and modern individuals. Probably the intensive r . . . . ate of emigration from less developed communities into u than. industrialized areas could in Italy be of help in 95 such analysis. On one hand, one might interview those persons who have remained at home, while on the other hand, those who left. Migrants who have departed from their place of origin only recently, possible having left their families behind, would constitute an intermediate group on the continuum of eXposure to modernizing influences . Once better culture-specific conceptualizations and measurement instruments of the attitudinal innova- tiveness syndrome have been derived, research should be conducted to discover the correlates and determinants of the various facets of individual modernity. However, it seems to the author that yet other steps should pre- ceed further efforts to apply the methods of causal analysis for model construction in this area. There is a definite need for longitudinal studies, or at least investigations designed to collect data at a minimum of two or more points in time. In submitting a cauSal model of a develOpmental sequence of events to canSal analysis, we assume we know the time-ordering of the impact of the variables included in the model. We can neVer be sure of this assumption. Thus any inferences concerning the underlying process remains questionable as long as the assumptions have not been checked longitu— dir1ally. Moreover, there are indeed many variables which _mli 96 mmfld.have influenced the particular relationships analyzed her, had their effects not been controlled. At the present state of methodological development of causal analysis, it becomes a highly complex matter to test the adequacy of a model once more than four or five variables have been introduced. Certainly we would need to know more about the effects of variables like education, political participation, and urbanization, since the in- fluence of the mass media may go hand—in—hand with other modernizing influences in order to become effective. Whatever direction taken by further research on the impact of television upon cultural attitudinal change in developing areas, the results from the present study SL1{-Jgest that it is important to consider dissatisfaction With occupational chances, and achievement motivation, as intervening variables. Also the necessity to distinguish betWeen the kinds of media programs watched has emerged from the present study, and according to the author's oPinion, there is a strong need to take additional content Speclifications of television programs into account. Further research should proceed in these, and other, direcztions so that one day we may be able to better under— stand what it means for people living in relative iso— lat-.1011 from the mainstream of life to have a window upon 1: . he World, opened to them through televiSion. - '11.!)“I I U I y I Y BIBLIOGRAPHY Armer, M. and R. Youtz. "Formal Education and Individual Modernity in an African Society." 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