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II -tivill . , .flfiu -. - . . -u.l»\la.(.. Huh») .2 (:9...lt.|~..9..!..t- !. o‘sul..-‘ § "Du‘D 1‘ v.11... . gang-t. C 3- 411.41.31.11. :h .- g. . - .uunlli t --.r.ll 3“: 3‘. «mpg .uUklRt‘klfcllltk I‘llllcll. . - » . . u-. .{ . tin .- - . - no-.- uni. .<1I("I»..ll. !J\-- \ - I l‘l....| Au \ II‘! n . no.1 . ¢ W”! vfi“: .‘Vlfll. .|. '1. a llllHlHllHJllHllHillll”IIIIUHIHHIWHIIJ‘. Will. THESIS 93 10423 5159 .- L/I LIBRAR Y Michigan State This is to certify that the thesis entitled A SPATIAL ANALYSIS OF LAKE SUPERIOR SHIPWRECKS: A STUDY IN THE FORMATIVE PROCESS OF THE ARCHAEOLOGICAL RECORD presented by CHARLES ALLEN HULSE has been accepted towards fulfillment of the requirements for Ph. D. degree in Anthrogology AWL Major professor Date August 3, 1981 0-7 639 ‘ OVERDUE FINES: N- 25¢ per day per item . l ' ‘ j [fl-‘Mfi } , RETURNING LIBRARY MATERIALS: ,\ .113“ a” ' ' Place in book return to nemove “MI" . charge from circulation records A SPATIAL ANALYSIS OF LAKE SUPERIOR SHIPWRECKS: A STUDY IN THE FORMATIVE PROCESS OF THE ARCHAEOLOGICAL RECORD By Charles Allen Hulse A DISSERTATION Submitted to Michigan State University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY Department of Anthropology 1981 Thi formative p Lakes shipw shipwrecked these three attribute r comprise th Such variab frequency 0 SPECific ge Spatial pat The imPortant x, formation 5 comodifies random pat: Patterning that there indusuy a. VIQCks. I" then discr. "I‘ll, 1‘" I w) 24 .'I p I ‘.‘ sun o'I/l M. ' u ABSTRACT A SPATIAL ANALYSIS OF LAKE SUPERIOR SHIPWRECKS: A STUDY IN THE FORMATIVE PROCESS OF THE ARCHAEOLOGICAL RECORD By Charles Allen Hulse This study describes a research effort which focuses upon the formative process of the archaeological record as it applies to Great Lakes shipwrecks, this research analyzes the spatial distribution of shipwrecked vessels from.the iron, grain, and coal industries. Using these three commodities a model of hypothesized distributions and attribute relationships is created. A series of twenty-one hypotheses comprise this model and are tested within the body of this research. Such variables as vessel type, date of loss, commodity, weather, frequency of traffic, etc. are tested for their association.with specific geographical locations in order to evaluate their effects upon spatial patterning of Lake Superior shipwrecks. The testing phase of this research revealed a number of important variable associations that have a significant effect upon the formation of the archaeological record. For example, of the three commodities under consideration only the iron industry exhibited none random patterning of related shipwrecks. The interpretation of this patterning in combination with results of other hypotheses tested is that there is a direct correlation between the capital intensity of an industry and the respective spatial distributions of associated ship- wrecks. The causitive mechanisms which result in this correlation are then discussed as they apply to the formation of the shipwreck archaeol account and the transt' distrib archaeological record. The cultural and noncultural factors which account for the initial deposition of wrecks (depositional transforms) and the later decomposition of those wreck sites (archaeological transforms) are discussed in great detail as they relate to the spatial distributions revealed by this study. A those pec However, mention t the finan Sea Grant and Recre Monies re asPects. Charles c Dr- Harry thIOllghou Bill Lovi Prescribe thanks go Beth Hand for final £8110" co not only ; to the lIla: ACKNOWLEDGMENTS A few lines on this page are hardly enough to adequately thank those people who have helped me in the completion of this project. However, since this is the public format I am limited to I must briefly ‘mention the individuals who have given the most towards this end. On the financial end of the matter-thanks are extended to the Michigan Sea Grant Program.and to Dr, Donald Holecek of the Department of Parks and Recreation.Resources at Michigan State University for research monies relating to the study of Great Lakes shipwrecks from several aspects. As for guidance-my committee composed of my chairman Dr. Charles Cleland and members Dr. William.Lovis, Dr. Moreau Maxwell, and Dr. Harry Raulet all provided me with useful comments and suggestions throughout my graduate career. A very special thanks is reserved for Bill Lovis for his intellectual and moral support far beyond his prescribed academic duties. 0n the production side of this venture-- thanks goes out to my ex~wife Pam.Zwer for many house of typing, to Beth Handrick for more hours of typing and help, and to Bonnie Graham for final editing. Finally, I would like to acknowledge the help of my fellow collegues at the MSU Museum who provided friendship and support not only for this project but throughout the years. To those peoole and to the many others who contributed to the cause--thanks! ii LIST OF 1 LIST OF 1 Chapter INT 1. ‘i ‘§ 1 1“ PH? II. HIE III. E]\& 11E . m V. I HHHHHU.HHHH.H-H.H. TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF TABIIES O O O O O 0 O O O O O O O 0 LIST OF FIGURES . . . . . . . . . . . . . Chapter I. II. INTRODUCTION . . . . . . Problem Statement . . . . . . . . Shipwrecks Defined . . . . . . . . Shipwrecks and Underwater Archaeology Previous Research . . . . . . . . Sources of Data . . . . . . . . . . . PHYSICAL ENVIRONMENT OF LAKE SUPERIOR Physical Geography and Navigation weather and Navigation . . . . . . Environment and Vessel Loss . . III.’ HISTORICAL BACKGROUND . . . . . IV. Early Development and Transportation . The Iron Industry . . . . . . . . Navigation and Industrial Expansion The Grain Trade . . . . . . . . . The Coal Trade . . . . . . . . . . Historical Summary and Comparisons . THE FORMATIVE PROCESS . . . . . . Hypothesis Hypothesis Hypothesis Hypothesis Hypothesis Hypothesis Hypothesis Hypothesis Hypothesis . . . Hypotheses 10 and 11 .w. . . . Hypotheses 12 and 13 . . . . . ‘OQNO\U\bWN-— Hypothesis 14 . . . . . . . . . . . Hypothesis 15 . . . . . . . . . . iii vi ix (AI-'00"— ~— 16 16 21 24 30 31 34 50 61 71 74 82 90 91 91 92 93 94 94 95 95 96 97 98 98 Chapter HEI 1!. I. .l‘ I- Chapter Type B Archaeological Transform Hypothesis . . . Hypotheses 16-21 . . . . . . . . . . . . . v 0 “momma O O O O O O O O O Shipwreck Attributes Defined . Abstraction of Attributes from Historical Sources Quantification of Attributes Statistical Evaluation . . . Poisson Distribution . . Kohmogorov-Smirnov Test of Goodness Contingency Chi Square . KxZ Chi Square . . . . . Interpretation of Results VI. HYPOTHESIS TESTING . Introduction . . . . . . . . Hypotheses . . . . . . . . . Type A Depositional Transform.Hypotheses Hypothesis 1 . . . . . . Test for Hypothesis 1 Hypothesis 1 Summary and Results . Hypothesis 2 . . . . . . Test for Hypothesis 2 Hypothesis 2 Summary and Results . Hypothesis 3 . . . . . . Hypothesis 4 . . . . . Test for Hypothesis 4 Hypothesis 4 - Summary Hypothesis 5 . . . . . Test for Hypothesis 5 Hypothesis 5 - Summary Hypothesis 6 . . . . . . Test for Hypothesis 6 Hypothesis 6 - Summary Hypothesis 7 . . . . . . Test for Hypothesis 7 Hypothesis 7 - Summary Hypothesis 8 . . . . . . Test for Hypothesis 8 Hypothesis 8 - Summary Hypothesis 9 . . . . . . Test for Hypothesis 9 Hypothesis 9 - Results Hypothesis 10 . . . . . . Test for Hypothesis 10 Hypothesis 10 - Summary and Results Hypothesis 11 . . . . . . Test for Hypothesis 11 Hypothesis 11 - Summary and Results and Results and Results and Results and Results and Results and Summary iv of Fit 99 100 104 104 105 107 107 108 115 116 117 118 119 119 126 127 127 127 132 132 133 138 138 139 139 140 143 143 144 144 144 146 147 148 150 150 151 151 153 153 154 156 156 158 159 159 161 Chapter Hypothesis 12 . . . . . . . . . . . Test for Hypothesis 12 . . . . . . . Hypothesis 12 - Summary and Results Hypothesis 13 . . . . . Test for Hypothesis 13 . . . . . . . Hypothesis 13 - Summary and Results Hypothesis 14 . . . Test for Hypothesis 14 . . . . . . . Hypothesis 14 - Summary and Results Hypothesis 15 . . . . Test for Hypothesis 15 . Hypothesis 15 - Summary and Results Hypothesis 16 . . . . Test for Hypothesis 16 . Hypothesis 16 - Summary and Results Hypothesis 17 . . . . Test for Hypothesis 17 . Hypothesis 18. Test for Hypothesis 18 . Hypothesis 18 - Summary and Results Hypothesis 19 . Test for Hypothesis 19 . . Hypothesis 19 - Summary and Results Hypothesis 20 . . . . . . . Test for Hypothesis 20 . . . . . . . Hypothesis 20 - Summary and Results Hypothesis 21 . . . Test for Hypothesis 21 . Hypothesis 21 - Summary and Results Summary of Results . . . Shipwreck Location Commodity Affiliation Vessel Type . . . . . Loss Type . . . Salvaged/Nonsalvaged Other Variables . . VII. Interpretation of Results Type A: Depositional Transforms INTERPRETATION AND CONCLUSIONS . Type B: Archaeological Transforms Conclusion . APPENDIX A . . APPENDIX B - VESSEL DATA . . ”PENDIX C O O 0 REFERENCES CITED . 161 162 164 164 165 167 167 167 168 169 169 170 171 171 172 172 172 173 173 174 174 175 179 179 179 180 181 181 182 182 182 183 184 184 185 185 187 187 188 210 214 220 226 239 252 Ial Table “NGUIJ-‘wN—t o 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. 31. 32. 33. 34. 35. 36. 37. 38. 39. 40. 41. 42. LIST OF TABLES Lake Superior Harbors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Freight rates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Lake Superior Iron Ranges . . . . . . . . . . . . Development of Ore Shipments . . . . . . . . Expansion of locks at Sault Ste. Marie . . . . Navigational nmprovements . . . ..... . . . . Development of Great Lakes bulk carriers Harbors of Lake Superior . . . . . . . . . . . Lake Superior ports . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Type A and Type B Factors . . . . . . . . . . . . All commodities: total and salvage combined . . . Poisson results for all Lake Superior shipwrecks Iron: total and salvage combined . . . . . . . . Iron: salvage and total losses combined . . . . Grain: total and salvage combined . . . . . . . . Grain: salvage and total losses combined . . Coal: total and salvage combined . . . . . Coal: salvage and total losses combined . . . Iron 1855-1879 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Iron 1880-1904 '. . . . . . ..... . . . . Iron 1905-1929 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Grain 1855-1879 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Grain 1880-1904 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Grain 1905-1929 . . . . . . . . . . . . Coal 1855-1879 . . . . . . . . . . . . Coal 1880-1904 . . . . . . . . . . . . Coal 1905-1929 . . . . . . . . . . . Iron, grain, and coal combined 1855-1879 Iron, grain, and coal combined 1880-1904 Iron, grain, and coal combined 1905-1929 . . . . Summary of results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Length of navigational season . . . . . . . . . . Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Results of x test . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Marquette . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Ashland . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Two Harbors . . . . . . Duluth/Superior . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Port Ar thur . . O C O O O O O O C O O C . O O O O 0 Results . . C O O O C O O O O O C O O O O O O O O 0 Results 0 O O O O O O O O I O O O O O O O O O O O Resu1t8 O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O 0 vi 18 37 44 48 50 51 55 59 72 87 128 129 129 130 130 131 131 132 134 134 134 134 135 135 135 135 136 136 136 137 137 141 142 143 145 145 145 146 146 146 149 152 mmwwav .mmummffm17 Table 43. 44. 45. 46. 47. 48. 49. 50. 51. 52. 53. 54. 55. 56. 57. 58. 59. 60. 61. 62. 63. 64. 65. 66. 67. 68. 69. 70. 71. 72. 73. 74. 75. 76. 77. 78. Ar] A-2 A-3 A-4 A-5 B-l B-2 B-3 B-4 B-5 B-6 C-1a C-lb C-1c C-Id Results . . Grounding . Foundering Collision . Fire . . . . . . . . . . . . Results . . . . . . . . . . . Results . . . . . . Results . . . . . Schooner . . . . Schooner-barge . Wooden steamer . Steel steamer . . . . . . . . Miscellaneous vessels . . . . Results . . . . . . . . . . . . Results . . Traffic and loss . . . . . . . Results . . . . . . Results . . . . . . . Iron - total loss . . . . . Iron - salvaged . . . . Grain - total loss . . . . Grain - salvaged . . Coal - total loss . . . . . Coal - salvaged . . . All commodities - total loss All commodities - salvaged . . . Results . . . . . . . . . . . Results . . . . . . . . . . . Results . . . . . . . . . . . Percentage of vessels lost in Iron - storms . . . . . . . . Grain - storms . . . . . . . Coal - storms . . . . . . . . All commodities - storms . . Summary . . . . . . . . . . . Frequency of losses by industry in five Opening and closing of navigation . . . . . . . . Upper Peninsula forges and furnaces . . Iron ore shipments by range . Grain and flour shipments--Lake Coal Shipments--Lake Superior Iron Ore - Total Losses . . . Iron Ore - Salvaged . . . . . Grain - Total Losses . Grain - Salvaged . . . . . . Coal - Total Losses . . . . . Coal - Salvaged . . . . . . . All commodities - salvage and Iron - salvage and total loss October and November 0 O O O C 0 zones 0 . . Superior 1870-1911 total loss combined combined Grain - salvage and total loss combined . Coal - salvage and total loss combined vii 155 156 157 157 157 158 160 163 165 165 165 166 166 166 168 170 171 173 175 176 176 176 176 177 177 177 178 180 181 196 198 198 198 199 199 206 220 221 222 224 225 226 230 232 234 235 237 239 239 240 240 Table C-Za 1E C-2b It C-Zc 11 C-Zd 1! C-Ze : C-Zf ll C-Zg 1 C-Zh 1‘ C-Zi I C-6a ‘1 C-6b A C-6c T C-6d D C-6e P C-lOa G C-10b I C-lOc C C-lOd 1 C-13a s C~ 13b 5 C~13c y C-13d 5 C-13e 1 C‘ISa 1 C-19a C-19b C-lgc ‘ C‘Igd ‘ C-19e ‘ C‘19f 1 C‘19g C~19h ‘ CODCIus CencluS COMIUS COncluS Table C-2a C-2b C-2c C-2d C-2e C-2f C-2g C-Zh C-2i C-6a C-6b C-6c C-6d C-6e C-10a C-10b C-lOc C-lOd C-13a C-13b C-13c C-13d C-13e C-15a C-19a C-19b C-19c C-19d C-19e C-19f C-19g C-19h Conclusion. Conclusion. Conclusion. Conclusion. 1855-1879 - 1855-1879 - 1855-1879 - 1880-1904 - 1880-1904 - 1880-1904 - 1905-1929 - 1905-1929 - 1905-1929 - Marquette . Iron Grain Coal Iron Grain Coal Iron Grain Coal Ashland ...... Two Harbors Duluth/Superior . Port.Arthur Grounding . . ...... Foundering Collision . Fire Schooner . . Schooner-barge . Wooden steamer . . . Steel steamer . . 'Miscellaneous vessels Vessel capacity . . Total loss Iron - salvage . . Grain - total loss Grain - salvage . Coal - total loss . . . Coal - salvage All commodities - total loss All commodities - salvage . Iron - stormw . Grain - storms Coal - storms . . . All comodities - sto . . . viii O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O 240 241 241 241 241 242 242 242 242 243 243 243 243 244 244 244 245 245 245 245 246 246 246 247 247 248 248 248 248 249 249 249 250 250 250 251 Fig LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1. Lake Superior harbors . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2. Lake Superior transportation routes . . . . . . . . 3. Iron ore production and transportation for the Lake Superior Region 1855 - 1930 . . . . . . . . . . . . 4. Iron range locations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5. Freight rates for iron ore 1855 - 1928, Marquette to Lower Lake Ports . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6. Iron, grain, coal tonnage on Lake Superior 1875-1910 7. Shipwrecks and the formative process . . . . . . 8. Variables in the formative process . . . . . . 9. Salvage and the formative process . . . . . 10. Poisson grid system . . . . . . . . . . . 11. Variables under consideration . . . . . . . . . 12. Variables affecting iron, grain, coal vessels . . 13. Iron-related shipwreck distributions . . . . . . . 14. Grain-related shipwreck distributions . . . . 15. Coal-related shipwreck distributions . . . . ix 20 29 43 46 57 78 86 89 102 111 121 125 190 193 195 IESOU] ical : both ' logic peepl With“ Lakes impo SCie r88: arch bro; Com the: CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION Problem Statement Shipwrecks in the Great Lakes constitute a major archaeological resource that is currently poorly known and understood. As archaeolog- ical sites, these wrecks offer potential for future investigations from both regional and site-specific perspectives. And as with all archaeo- logical phenomena, they reflect the culture and behavior of a past people; a study of whom can enrich our understanding of culture process within an anthropological perspective. The development of the Great Lakes region and the subsequent industrialization during the nineteenth century has significance for a number of academic disciplines, including anthropology. Economic change, decision making, and development are important areas of study to anthropology, as they are to all social sciences. The shipping industry on the Great Lakes is one by-product of regional economic behavior that has been recorded in the present archaeological record through the occurrence of shipwrecks. From a broad anthropological approach, the study of these shipwrecks can contribute to the understanding of such cultural phenomena as economic change and the industrial process. Despite the potential research importance of shipwrecks as archaeological sites, there has yet to be an anthropological treatment of them in the Great Lakes region. Likewise, there is currently no theoretical framework around which future shipwreck studies can be organized. Shipwrecks differ from.terrestria1 archaeological sites because they reflect a set of variables that are linked to transporta- tion rather than settlement. Additionally, underwater wreck sites have been deposited in the archaeological record by different processes than land sites. These differences suggest that shipwrecks should be viewed within a theoretical/methodological framework that both.recognizes their unique qualities and directs future research.toward the investigation of specialized problems. Recent academic study of shipwrecks in the Great Lakes has primarily focused only on the historical events surrounding individual vessel loss and not on broader issues. This narrow treatment fails to recognize the cultural context of vessels on their value to the interpretation of social phenomena. The purpose of this dissertation is to apply a broad regional approach.to shipwreck.studies and to begin laying a foundation for the future investigation of wreck sites within an anthropological framework. Of the many questions of potential research interest, the focal point for this study is the spatial distribution of shipwrecks. This topic is particularly appropriate as an initial treatment of the shipwreck phenomena because it has value for both theoretical and methodological issues. For example, shipwrecks are reflective of a well-documented past cultural system. Since the shipping industry was known to be structured by trade routes, industrial development, and the physical environment, it would then be expected that to some extent shipwrecks would likewise be patterned. This dissertation is framed around the hypothesis that since shipping in the Great Lakes is a culturally patterned phenomena and nonrandom in occurrence, shipwrecks will likewise be patterned and nonrandom in their distribution. The question of patterned regularities in the shipwreck archaeological record is of major importance because it will substantively affect the future treatment of shipwrecks. If shipwrecks are found to be distributed in a recognizable pattern, then future excavations, sampling strategies, etc. can take this into account and proceed accordingly. The type and extent of patterning might also be viewed as a reflection of the cultural system that shaped the development of the shipping industry; if so, patterning has potential to reveal information on culture process that is not recorded in existing documents. As a predictive tool, the analysis of shipwreck locations may also lead toward pattern recognition that can be applied to other situations in order to locate unknown wreck sites or shipwreck.clusters. For example, if this study reveals that vessels are lost in a specific pattern in relation to particular ports or geographic features, than similar locations can be sought elsewhere for like patterns. Although less important for site specific studies, this question is of greatest interest to those studies dealing with a broad regional approach to shipwrecks. Future studies involving Great Lakes shipwrecks would hope- fully be based upon the degree and type of spatial patterning found in this study. Because shipwreck.studies of any type are new to Great Lakes archaeology, one item of high priority is the location of sites and an .understanding of the factors contributing to vessel loss and distribution. Spatial analysis is a necessary first step toward generating research interest in this little known area. The study of the spatial patterning of shipwrecks involves much more than just locational information. Rather, it requires an investi- gation of a wide array of factors that contribute to vessel loss and decomposition. For this reason, the study of the formative process of the shipwreck archaeological record is also needed to fully understand both.the patterns of distribution as well as the causal variables for these patterns. In relation to this study, pattern recognition is not an end in and of itself but is one means by which a theoretical base can be initiated for the investigation of shipwreck.phenomena. For the purpose of this study, a systems approach will be used to order the data and to isolate those key variables of spatial pattern- ing. Through.a series of testable hypotheses, the relationships between these variables will be investigated and the results applied to an interpretation of spatial distributions. In order to condense the problem.into a manageable design, the geographic area selected for study has been narrowed to the Lake Superior region. This area was chosen because it was the last of the Great Lakes to be settled and is therefore historically documented in greater detail than the other Lakes. The time period considered here begins with the opening of the St. Mary's Falls Ship Canal in 1855 and ends with the second decade of the twentieth century. The year 1930.was selected as a terminal point because few shipwrecks occurred after this date because of modern advances in navigation, communication, and vessel design. During this 75 year study period, the shipping industry concentrated on the movement of four primary commodities: iron ore, grain, coal, and lumber. The first three were of importance throughout a large portion of this period, while the last achieved significance in the post-1890 period. Therefore, to facilitate comparisons between industries, only the iron, grain, and coal commodities will be dealt with in the model. Using these three industries, this study will determine if vessels related to them are spatially patterned and if so, determine the contributing factors to this distribution. Based on the results of hypothesis testing, it may be found that some industry-related vessels exhibit patterns of loss different from the others. If so, then potential alternative explanations will be proposed for these patterns in light of the relationships between other variables tested in the analysis. It is hoped that the broader issues addressed to spatial patterning will have significance beyond this single geographic area and the time period. Because this study addresses Lake Superior industries, it must necessarily be oriented toward economics and spatial distribu- tions. And an underlying goal of this study is to demonstrate the utility of a broad systems approach to a topic that has been investi- gated in the past from a historical/particularist perspective. Ship- wrecks on the Great Lakes are a potential source of information on broad social issues such as economic development and technological change. In the past, these issues have been ignored by historians in favor of more particularistic treatments of individual vessels and their conditions of loss. As a result, shipwrecks are presently viewed in the same manner as historic buildings-—that is, that they are valued only in terms of their unique architectural features and not in relation to the informa- tion they can provide toward an understanding of culture process and change. In this study, the specific details of individual vessels are used to solve particular problems related to the study of spatial distributions. Such variables as vessel type, condition of loss, date of loss, industry affiliation, etc. will be analyzed as components of an interrelated system. The shipping industry on Lake Superior was part of an industrial system that significantly changed the character of American culture in the Great Lakes region. As elements of this system, such factors as economic decision making, transportation technology, regional development, and the physical environment played a major role in shaping the transportation industry. A locational study of shipping and shipwrecks from such a perspective requires an understanding of the processes that form the archaeological record. The system within which the shipping industry operated provides a setting for the understanding of shipwrecks in an archaeological context. A systems approach to wreck phenomena recognizes the cultural context of vessels and places specific characteristics such as spatial distributions within this broader system. Shipwrecks Defined The shipping industry in the Great Lakes was a complex system of transportation responsible for the movement of vast numbers of people, raw.materials, and finished goods. This transportation system not only represented the economic behavior of the time but also became a develop- mental force that influenced the direction and future economic expansion of the region. The Lake Superior region provided a relatively undeveloped geo- graphic area on which the shipping industry could operate. Before the opening of the St. Mary's Canal at Sault Ste. Marie in 1855, the "shipping industry" consisted of the movement of small amounts of goods between the settlements still involved in the final years of the fur trade era. With the discovery of mineral and timber resources in the Lake Superior Region at a time when America was feeling the demands of the Industrial Rev: cla: the tin net 1201 C31 C01 8C th re th 51' Revolution, the region became of immediate interest to the emerging class of wealthy eastern entrepreneurs. The subsequent development of the region, first in mineral resources and then in agricultural and timber commodities, resulted in the rapid expansion of transportation networks, including the railroad and shipping industries. water trans- portation in particular was easily adaptable to the bulk movement of cargoes and soon became the dominant mode of transportation for such commodities as iron ore, grain, and coal. Throughout the years of Great Lakes navigation, a great many accidents occurred involving thousands of vessels. The majority of these mishaps resulted only in minor damage and after a brief period of repair, the vessel returned to the water. Some vessels were lucky in their careers on the lakes and survived many years of service without a single mishap. Others were not nearly so fortunate and were "jinxed" with one accident after another throughout their lifetimes. Some of these accidents resulted in the partial or total loss of vessels, their cargoes, and their crews. The loss of life and property were of major interest to the many small communities of the region-and in particular to those with ties to the shipping industry. News of accidents traveled quickly and newspapers hungry for a story quickly turned mishaps into front page stories. Thus, shipwrecks became an unfortunate but integral part of society and through.written and oral accounts, they became a part of the local history and tradition. On first inspection, the meaning of the term "shipwrecks" seems quite obvious and of little need of further elaboration. However, in actuality this term has been used to represent a wide variety of mishaps varying from minor accidents to large and costly disasters. Since this study deals ultimately with.the shipwreck archaeological record, it is necessary to draw finer distinctions between the severity of loss experienced by vessels. In particular, it is necessary to separate vessel mishaps into one of three categories: 1) minor accidents where the vessel(s) involved remained afloat and did not require extraordinary assistance to make port; 2) accidents that incapacitated a vessel for a period of time (days to years) and that required special assistance for the vessel to make port; and 3) accidents resulting in total loss of the vessel so that even special assistance could not put it back.into service. These three distinctions are necessary to fully understand the formative process of the archaeological record. For example, minor accidents would contribute little or nothing to the archaeological record and no traces of these actions remain today. On the other hand, accidents that resulted in total loss of the vessel comprise a major portion of today's shipwreck record. The second class of accidents is likewise of importance because it represents those vessels that were once a part of the archaeological record but were removed through.such human actions as salvage. Although this type of accident is not repre— sented today in the record, it is important to the understanding of past cultural actions as well as the process by which the present shipwreck record is formed. This study will consider only vessels of these last two types (i.e., salvaged, total losses) because of the relative lack of accurate information on minor accidents. Since major accidents were reported widely in newspapers of the period, better information is currently available on these diasters than on the less newsworthy minor mishaps. This is not to say that minor accidents are not worthy of further investigation, but only that they cannot be dealt with in this study because of a lack of detailed information. Shipwrecks and Underwater Archaeology Shipwrecks have been a part of the human experiences as long as watercraft have sailed the seas and waterways of the world. For more than nine thousand years, vessels have moved peoples, products, and ideas across space and between cultures (Bass 1972:12). It is not unusual then that water transportation evolved rapidly as an adaptation to a world that is three fourths covered by water. Over time, water- craft have proved to be the single most efficient means of transportation available. However, as long as ships have sailed the oceans, storms have destroyed those vessels. Although unfortunate for the crews of those ships, without those shipwrecks we would know very little today of these early craft and of the cultures that produced them. Underwater archaeology had its beginnings in the early 1960s with the excavation of a Bronze Age ship in the Mediterranean (Bass 1972:9). Since then, underwater archaeology has grown rapidly as a field of study with its practitioners coming from a number of different academic disciplines. The present orientation of this field is very similar to that of European schools of archaeology whereby history, rather than anthropology, is stressed. This in part has been due to the internation- al character of the field, with.many of the first underwater excavations conducted either by European or Scandanavian teams of researchers. Like- wise, the involvement of classical archaeologists with their historical or art-historical approach.has added further to the stressing of this nonanthropological orientation to underwater archaeology. 10 The newness of underwater sites to many archaeologists has led also to an overemphasis on description and classification of marine artifacts and vessels. Those few anthropologically trained archaeolo- gists who have entered the underwater realm have been reluctant--or unable-to address broad cultural questions using shipwreck data. In many ways, underwater archaeology today resembles American prehistoric archaeology of the mid to late nineteenth century. According to Willey and Sabloff (1974:42-87), the Classificatory-Descriptive Period (1840- 1914) was characterized by the "description of archaeological materials, especially architecture and monuments, and the rudimentary classification of these." In many ways, this statement also accurately describes the large majority of current underwater archaeological investigations. The combination of a European historical view toward archaeology and a fixation (even by many anthropologists) on the architectural description of vessels has led to a disinterest in underwater cultural phenomena by most scientific anthropological archaeologists. This is extremely unfortunate because these phenomena have tremendous potential to the study of cultural process and culture history. Until this situation changes, the underwater resources currently available for study will not be utilized to their full potential and may perhaps be destroyed by well-intentioned but poorly trained archaeologists. In recent years, Great Lakes shipwrecks have received a great deal of attention in the popular literature but have for the most part been largely ignored by the archaeological community. This has been due to a number of factors, including: 1) lack of water-based training by the majority of land archaeologists; 2) the fact that most underwater archaeologists have their training in marine rather than fresh water 11 areas; 3) lack of academic programs in Great Lakes region universities; 4) the lack of conservation facilities for handling large scale under- water excavations; and 5) the reluctance of Great Lakes state govern- ments (i.e., history divisions, museums, etc.) to become involved with a new area of study. These and other reasons have contributed to a very poor climate for the study of Great Lakes shipwrecks from an archaeological, and particularly anthropological, viewpoint. It is not surprising then that problem—oriented research in the region has not been undertaken to this point in time. Previous Research Outside of the fields of history and marine history, very little academic research has been directed toward shipwreck studies in the Great Lakes, partly because of the nature of underwater archaeology and its relatively expensive methods of field excavation. Despite the lack of archaeological emphasis on shipwrecks, several historical treatments of this phenomena are noteworthy. wright‘s (1972) study in particular is unique because it was directed toward a broad approach to wrecks rather than the usual particularistic case study of the more "important" vessels. His study was commissioned by the Michigan Department of Natural Resources and was designed to be an inventory of vessels thought to be lost within Michigan waters. But the ultimate purpose of the study was to detect geographic areas with particularly high concentrations of wrecked ships and to proVide an overall view of the shipwreck resource in the state. Based on numerous primary and secondary sources, this study succeeded in inventorying a total of 1,139 vessels believed to have been lost in state waters. Of these, 175 were believed lost in Lake Superior (wright 1972:6). For each 12 vessel, characteristics such as general location, vessel name, vessel type, type of loss, date of loss, and cargo type were recorded when available. This information was then computerized and cross-tabulations were run on possible variable combinations. Unfortunately, the study progressed no further and no effort was made to analyze the results of the_project nor to place the vessels into an overall developmental framework. Therefore, the Wright study was primarily descriptive; it presented information on shipwrecks but did not relate the findings to the development of the Upper Great Lakes region. Wright (1972) also attempted to deal with the problem of location by dividing Michigan waters into 18 arbitrary zones. Locations of vessel loss were then grouped into these zones and could be corre- lated with other factors to form.a coastal shipwreck profile, which consisted of the number of vessels lost in an area along with data on the relative vessel types, cargoes, types of loss, etc. Wright hoped that this locational study would determine general patterns of loss for specific areas. While to some extent this was accomplished, there were a number of problems associated with this approach. For example, the location zones dealt only with.the Michigan waters of Lake Superior, while the study vessels had actually been a part of the total Lake Superior transportation system. By looking only athichigan waters, wright could have obtained a very biased representation of Lake Superior shipwrecks. In addition, the location zones were entirely arbitrary and bore no resemblance to the cultural boundaries of the shipping system. Without an understanding of the major ports, trans- portation networks, and natural resource locations, it would be difficult to arrive at culturally meaningful locational zones. For 13 these reasons, Wright's treatment of locations was necessarily limiting, although it was an excellent early attempt to deal with.the question of spatial distribution of shipwrecks. Other than this single study, no other research projects have been conducted on Lake Superior shipwrecks from anything other than a historically descriptive standpoint. Relevant historical studies will be discussed in the following section. Sources of Data This research.project will incorporate a wide range of histori- cal sources, both primary and secondary, into the investigation of shipping and shipwrecks in the Great Lakes, and will focus on applying the large body of historic data available on this topic to questions posed within a broader anthropological framework. Historical treat- ments of the shipping industry are filled with an abundance of data on vessels, vessel patterns, and shipwreck locations. What is proposed in this study is to utilize these extant historical sources as a data base for testing broader based anthropological questions. There are essentially two general categories of sources used in this investiga- tion: 1) those sources providing information on the shipping and economic history of the Lake Superior region; and 2) those sources dealing specifically with shipwrecks and providing information about their origins and locations. Of these two types of sources, the former is by far the largest and most complete. This is because of the impor- tance of shipping and shipping-related industry to the Lake Superior region and the extensive collections of materials available on these subjects. A wide range of primary source materials are available in- cluding commodity records, shipping records, and government statistical 14 abstractsr Additionally, several scholarly studies on selected topics have been published that provide an excellent base of secondary sources from which to draw. A combination of both primary and secondary sources will be used in this research project to outline the shipping industry of the period 1855-1920. In particular, such sources as IMansfield (1899), Barry (1973), Hatcher (1950), Nute (1944), Williamson (1977), and Wright (1972) provide detailed accounts of specific vessels, industries, or chronological periods of relevance to this study. In contrast to the abundance of materials available on shipping and related industries, information on individual shipwrecks is much scarcer and difficult to obtain. The major primary source on ship- wrecks in Lake Superior are the Annual Reports of the U.S. Life-Saving_ Service for the years 1877-1914. These reports are yearly summaries of all services provided to distressed vessels and include information on specific vessels, their cargoes, locations and damage. The Life-Saving Service divides the Great Lakes to encompass three districts--No. 10 (Lake Ontario and Lake Erie), No. 11 (Lake Huron and Lake Superior), and No. 12 (Lake Michigan). Although these records often include reports on lost vessels, they are often incomplete. Other primary sources include newspapers, trade journals, and vessel registers, and each contain sizable amounts of data of varying quality and accuracy. There are a large number of secondary sources on shipwrecks and these too are a mixture of scholarly and sensationalized historical accounts of lost vessels. .For Lake Superior, the single most significant source is Wolff's (1979) The Shipwrecks of Lake Superior. This is the most complete and well-documented treatment of 15 wrecks in the Great Lakes and uses an historical case study approach. to examine well over 1,000 accidents. Wolff‘s 23 year study of Lake Superior shipwrecks includes a wide.variety of information drawn from primary sources such.as those previous mentioned. Because of its high degree of scholarship, this study will serve as the major source of shipwreck data for this research project. Other secondary sources such as Heden (1966) and Winkelman (1971) will be used as supplementary data whenever needed. When combined, these sources offer the most reliable and complete data presently available on the subject. Therefore, the main emphasis of this dissertation will be the application of existing historical data to questions relevant to the study of spatial distributions of wrecks. Although this approach relies on the quality of available sources, this does not appear to be limiting since they are complete enough to provide the data needed to test hypotheses posed in this investigation. Those hypotheses and the model around which they are organized will be discussed in detail in following chapters. CHAPTER II PHYSICAL ENVIRONMENT OF LAKE SUPERIOR The physical environment of the Lake Superior region had a major effect on the type, extent, and rapidity of its settlement and development. The location of natural resources, population centers, and transportation lines encouraged development of certain sectors of the region over others. This chapter outlines the physical geography of Lake Superior and its coastline, illustrating the prominent features that affected navigation and shipping. Physical Geography and Navigation With a surface area of approximately 32,000 square miles, Lake Superior is the largest body of fresh water in the U.S. Its greatest length from east to west is about 350 miles, while the point of great- est width is roughly half as long. The altitude of the lake surface averages 600 feet above sea level, 20 feet higher than Lakes Michigan or Huron at 580 feet (Sommers 1977:43). Until the construction of a lock system at Sault Ste. Marie in 1855, this difference in levels created a barrier to the direct access of the lake. During the last century, the level of Lake Superior has remained more stable than the other Great Lakes, with a maximum variation of only 2.6 feet. These yearly variations are due to a number of factors, including temperature and rainfall and may have had an impact on navigation by making some harbors and ports less accessible during lowbwater periods. 16 17 Lake Superior is also the deepest of the lakes; its maximum depth of 1333 feet is found in the eastern portion of the lake. While variations in depth (over 30 feet) would have little direct impact on navigation, they would definitely play a role in the salvage and retrieval of lost vessels and cargo. The waters of Lake Superior are clearer and colder than the other Great Lakes. Average water temperature at Marquette, for example, ranges from a high of 60° F in August to a low of 34° F from December through.March (Mansfield 1899:46). During the winter months, it is not unusual for the lake to freeze over, either totally or partially. Even in the summer months the water temperature under the surface is greatly reduced for each.20-foot increment of depth, so that below 200 feet the temperature remains a constant 39°F. These tempera- tures, along with the fresh.water, combine to produce conditions perfect for preservation of organic materials. Lake Superior harbors are particularly important to lake navigation by providing terminal points for docking as well as a safe refuge in case of storms. An early traveler on the lake commented that The natural harbors of this lake are not numerous, but on account of its extent and depth it affords an abundance of searoom, and is consequently one of the safest of the great lakes to navigate. The only trouble is that it is subject to severe storms which. arise very suddenly. Often have I floated on its sleeping bosom in my canoe at noonday and watched the butterfly sporting in the sunbeams; and at the sunset hour of the same day have stood in perfect terror upon the rocky shore gazing upon the mighty billows careening onward as if mad with a wild delight, while a wailing song, mingled with the 'trampling surf,‘ would ascend to the gloomy sky (Mansfield 1899). This quotation graphically illustrates the relative lack of harbors as well as the urgency of finding refuge from.storms. Following is a listing of the principal harbors found on Lake Superior. 18 Table 1. Lake Superior Harbors Sault Ste. Marie, ME, ONT Eagle Harbor Duluth/Superior, MN/WI Grand Marais Ontanagon Two Harbors Munising Ashland, WI Grand Marais, MN JMarquette La Pointe, WI Port Arthur, ONT L'Anse Bayfield, WI Copper Harbor Portwing, WI These harbors constitute the major geographic areas where a number of factors combine to allow for port facilities. Such.elements as water depth and shelter are essential for the construction and use of docking facilities. From.the list above, it can be seen that on the entire north shore of the lake there are only three harbors--Two Harbors and Port Arthur-~compared to 14 (88 percent) on the south shore. In an historical sense, this geographic discrepancy has had a major effect on the settlement of the respective shores of the lake (see Figure 1). In times of storms, vessels on the lake would have attempted to either "weather them out" or head for safe harbor. Because of the relative lack of facilities for such a large geographic area, the next best alternative would be to seek shelter wherever possible. Protected areas are those locations that provide vessels some relief from the winds and waves associated with the dangerous northwest storms of the region. When a vessel is caught on the open lake in a storm too violent to ride out, it seeks one of these sheltered areas, which are predominately on the leeward side of points, peninsulas, and islands. Navigational hazards on Lake Superior are difficult to define since this depends on human behavior as well as geography. For example, those same islands that provide shelter from storms are also potentially hazardous to navigation under other circumstances, such as \OGJNChUI-L‘UNH 10. ll. 12. l3. 14. 15. 16. Figure l. Sault Ste. Marie, MI, ONT Grand Marais,.MI Munising, ME Marquette,.MI L'Anse, ME Copper Harbor, MI Eagle Harbor, MI Ontanagon, MI Ashland, WI La Pointe, WI Bayfield, WI Portwing, WI Duluth/Superior, MN/WI Two Harbors, MN Grand Marais, MN Port Arthur, ONT Lake Superior Harbors 19 20 flljllJflHHmulJ muzz Bad—(pm u.u($ up... n ba3(m 02.2231 0... 0 96 awkwacai‘c‘ by a u unZKa Q Q \ 0—1030. .. v O . o . O0. ‘0 wOS—uOs . s 9.2.0 no . . a . 3 Z . sun—239:. . 0 § 06 G 02(d1w< 21 fog. Therefore, hazards are relative phenomena dependent upon a number of factors that come together at a single point in time. Shoals found along large portions of the coastline present a hazard to navigation only when vessels stray outside of their designated navigational lanes. In geographic areas where a course change in necessary (e.g., for rounding a point, or avoiding an island), weather conditions are hazardous only when they reduce visibility or maneuverability. Some- times ships might actually seek out hazardous areas: intentional grounding could prevent total loss to the vessel and crew when foundering was the only other alternative; WOlff (1979) discusses numerous instances when these intentional groundings became necessary. So navigation on Lake Superior was affected by a wide array of both environmental and cultural factors; shipping and the resultant loss of vessels was not a function purely of climate or geography. Weather and Navigation Throughout the history of Great Lakes navigation, weather had a major influence on the movement of ships and cargo across this broad geographical area. weather can be viewed in two ways: as a commercially restrictive force and as a randomizing element in the navigation process. In terms of its restrictive or constraining feature, the single element of greatest influence was the season of navigation on the lakes. The length of the season had a major effect on the amount of goods. the number of vessels, and the number of round trips possible in a given year. Table 1, Appendix A, presents a listing of the length of navigational seasons on the lakes for the years 1855-1930. These dates represent the recognized opening of the Sault Canal and pertain especially to the traffic from Lake Superior to southern ports. 22 During seasons of short duration, the traffic on the Lakes is congested into a shorter period and vessels are anxious to sail at the beginning and ending of the navigation season. In addition, in an extremely short season with an early winter, economics often force vessels into attempting a final round trip when in longer season years, this would not be necessary. The weather also influences traffic on the Lakes through storm and fog patterns. Storms on the Lakes can approach those of the oceans in both intensity and duration. But the Lakes present certain features unique to this geographic area. Generally, most major storms on Lake Superior occur during October and Nbvember, while the best weather is in the months of July and August (Mansfield 1899:45; Townsend and Ericson 1978:123-125). Although much more frequent in October and Navember, storms may arise any time throughout the year. Before the advent of ship-to—shore communications in the first decade of the twentieth century, ships were more or less dependent upon the judgment of the captain and crew for predicting shifts in weather. Even with these communication facilities, many ships are caught in rapidly rising storms at locations that offer no refuge. So it is a matter of chance exactly when and where storms will interfere with.navigation and possibly result in vessel loss. Most of the severe storms come from.the north, as opposed to the prevailing winds that normally come from the southwest or west (Mansfield 1899:47). This northerly shift of wind is particularly dangerous because large fluctuations in water level occur over the unrestricted water, sometimes resulting in seiches and surges. These are particularly dangerous in shallow areas along the coastline, such as in Keweenaw Bay. 23 As construction of steel--and 1arger--bulk carriers began and as weather prediction became more scientific, the number of vessels lost in storms began to decrease. With the advent of radar as standard equipment in 1940, collisions and groundings were significantly reduced. For example, Lake Superior collisions accounted for eight of 136 losses during the period 1835-1900, and from 1900-1943, this number increased to 13 of 143. But with radar after 1943, no vessels have been lost in collision (Wolff 1962:136). Fog was one major cause of collision. In the Great Lakes, fog is most prevalent in the northern regions, such as Lake Superior, where the water stays colder. It occurs most often during a warm trend in the spring when the water temperature lags behind the temperature of the surrounding land. By summer, the water temperature has warmed to a point where fog is not a problem (Townsend and Ericson 1978:125-126). Generally, fog is a problem.within five nautical miles of the shoreline and does not pose a major threat on the open lake. Beyond its visually limiting effect, one characteristic of fog, is its abberation of sound. Ship and fog signals on the Lakes can easily be misjudged so that the sound appears to be coming from a different direction and distance than it actually is (Mansfield 1899:50). Possibly for this reason few fog signals were ever installed on Lake Superior. The Coast Guards Light list carries this warning: Fog signals depend on the transmission of sound through air. As aids to navigation they have certain inherent defects that should be considered. Sound travels through air in a variable and unpredictable manner. IMariners are warned that fog signals can never be implicitly relied upon (U.S. Coast Guard 1970), (Holland 1972:202-203). Collisions and groundings in fog remained a major problem on Lake Superior until the 1940s. 24 Environment and Vessel Loss Collisions were only one of four major causes of loss on the Great Lakes; fire, founderings, and groundings were also major forms of vessel loss that took a heavy toll. Fire was more common to certain types of vessels than others. Early propellors, steamers, and tugs were particularly susceptible to fire because their propulsion systems were dependent on wood- or coal-fired boilers (Wright 1977:12). Naturally, they presented a constant hazard, especially in stress situations. The other disasters--founderings and groundings--were common to all types of vessels but particularly to those sailing ships with a greater dependency on the weather. For example, schooners, which were generally small in size, were common on the lakes before the institution of communication devices and many modern navigational aids. ‘Many sailing ships were lost through foundering or grounding in the intense storms of Lake Superior. With the advent of larger and safer vessels, losses in storms were greatly reduced. Between 1920 and 1940, the institution of separated navigation lanes and radar eventually eliminated losses due to collisions (Walff 1962:137). In this same period, founderings were also reduced. Ice build-up from winter storms, shifting of cargo in storms, etc., all played a role in founderings. Technological advancements in vessel design and cargo handling made the modern bulk freighters very stable in the water. By the 1940s, ship loss due to any type of disaster was an unusual occurrence. No single factor was responsible for the improvement of vessel safety, rather it was a combination of different but related phenomena that played a 'major role in this regard. Larger and more stable vessels, better weather reporting and communication systems, radar, and well-defined 25 navigation lanes all helped eliminate major disasters on the Great Lakes. Until the 1920s, the actual navigational routes on the Lakes were informally derived. At that time, sailing lanes separated for upbound and downbound traffic became separated in order to minimize the danger of collisions (Johnson 1948:118). Before 1920, navigational routes were charted by individual vessels or companies dependent upon the destination and stops a vessel had planned. Because of the natures of cargoes and the specifics of each industry, there were major differ- ences in navigational routes between shippers of different commodities. Therefore, routes traveled by carriers of package freight were different from are carriers because they had different markets to cover and variations in points of origin and destination. An ore carrier downbound from.Marquette would plan a direct route to Lake Erie to minimize time and expense. A package freighter traveling the same route might stop at numerous intermediate points to load and unload cargo, covering different routes in the process. The same can be said for vessels carrying other commodities like lumber, grain, salt, and stone, all common to Lake Superior traffic. Before the establishment of set navigational lanes, the judg- ment of the ships' masters (along with some basic rules for passing, etc.) were the only regulations imposed on vessel traffic. This pre- sented few problema when the weather was clear and visibility good but in storms or heavy fog, the danger of collision or grounding was very real. The greatest dangers occurred where navigation was so restricted that traffic concentrated in certain areas. The geography of Lake Superior is such that at some points, maneuverability is restricted 26 because of channel depth.or navigational hazards. Five areas in particular have this concentrating effect: 1) Duluth/Superior to the Apostle Isle; 2) Ashland past the Apostle Islands; 3) Keweenaw Peninsula; 4) Whitefish Point; and 5) Southern Whitefish Bay to Sault Ste. Marie. In these areas, vessels might change course several times to maintain a direct route across the lake. Also, ship masters seek to minimize the distances they must travel because of the economics of lake carriers. Time lost going too far out when rounding the Keweenaw is lost money and broken schedules at the furnaces on Lake Erie. Some concentration of traffic is therefore a result not only of geographic constraints but also of maximizing economic behavior by vessel captains. This congestion of traffic around harbors significantly increases the probability of vessel loss due to collision or grounding. Ships associated with the bulk cargo industries followed a general pattern of navigation consistent with the developments of the shipping industry as a whole. When the iron industry opened new ranges for mining, new lines of transportation developed accordingly. Within this major overall shipment pattern, individual ships varied little in regard to the specific routes traveled on Lake Superior. The downbound cargoes of pig iron or iron ore traveled routes designed to maximize speed and to minimize distance in the journey to Lake Erie ports. Vessels traveled straight courses (wind and weather permitting) that took them across the open lake. Upbound vessels usually brought cargoes of coal, general freight, and sometimes passengers as vessel design permitted. These trips were normally made on similar routes that brought the vessels slightly closer to shore on the upbound leg of the journey. The navigational lanes that were eventually established 27 through federal regulations are very similar to the historical routes established during the major period of ore shipment beginning in 1870. Figure 2 illustrates the major modern navigational routes on Lake Superior. 28 Figure 2. Lake Superior Transportation Routes 29 u.¢(¢< men n :(m 1 H mm _m in 0 «~21 w~:h(pm 02.2231 fl o mphuaflv¢3 sun-2::- OzHumauom one one exoouBeHSm .u oustm mahowmnmua masowmooua HmonoHoomnou< HosOHuHmooon m mama < omza ouooom mucous who on ueoauoHo>on HmOHmoHooonou< when M axoouamHnm sumo w HmHuumooaH usonoum H H o HoHuoosm mama H H o \womeeHAm k1 \ A AA uxouaoo nuouomw uxouooo muouomm uuouooo HonouHoolsoz HonouHsolooz HmsoHuHmOQoo oaaoumhm HmonoHoomnou< 87 have the benefit of historical documents, which enhance the knowledge available about the other two contexts and aid in uncovering the factors responsible for the transformation process. shipwreck studies of Lake Superior. This is also true for The historical documents available on the region provide information concerning many of the significant factors that influenced the production, deposition, and decomposition of historic period lake vessels. Both Type A and B transforms are discussed in the literature (although to varying extents) so that many of the factors responsible for the formation of the archaeological record are known. in this study. Table 10. CULTURAL NON- CULTURAL Type A and Type B Factors Type A Depositional Transforms Economic strategies Shipping behavior Transportation routes CULTURAL Commodity trades Transportation technology Weather-storms, fog, winds Geography-water depths, NON- harbors, navigation hazards Natural resource distribution CULTURAL Table 10 presents some of those factors that will be considered Type B Archaeological Transitions Salvage capabilities Salvage decisions Dredging operations Sport diving Legal protections Dumping Condition of wreck Dollar value of wreck Historical value Water depth Ice damage Wave actions Water chemistry Lake hydrology The factors presented in this table are by no means a definitive listing of all variables affecting shipwrecks. Rather, it is illustra- tive of the factor types that combine to form the underwater 88 archaeological record we now have. The shipping industry was a complex system of relationships involving economics, technology, and culture change. Likewise, the shipwrecks are reflections of these complexities as well as of numerous other factors, such as the physical environment. Discussion of the formative process of the shipwreck record orders a wide range of variables into a unified system of thought. For analysis, all the factors that influenced vessel loss and spatial patterning can be grouped into two basic categories. The Type A depositional transforms are those factors that contribute to vessel loss, while Type B archaeological transforms affect vessels after loss has occurred. These concepts are useful primarily as heuristic devices for ordering and discussing the causal factors behind vessel loss and distribution. . Given the difference between the iron, grain, and coal trades on Lake Superior, it can be assumed that each industry would be affected differently by the factors outlined in Table 10. Theoretically, each industry will undergo a different formative process in the deposition and decomposition of related vessels, and the cultural and environmental variables responsible for the formative process will be different for each industry. Iron industry vessels, for example, may be differentially affected by the environment (weather, fog, etc.) because the cultural variables responsible for the transportation of iron (capital investment, decision making, chronology) are different from.those of either the grain or coal trades. Figure 8 illustrates the combination of factors that result in vessel distributions. The interrelationships between cultural and environmental factors are such that as cultural factors 89 swoops: swam common weHoeHem semen your: season soHumuuoeudsuu mo anemuwooo onHa on huHHHoHquomom masons ossuueuHs on %UHHHA< muHm AZM mmooouo o>Humahou ecu eH moHomHum> hquoaaou .3 saoHusoHuumHn Houmo> N7 ouooom HoonoHoossoue mo mmoooum o>Humauom quooaaoo mom panama usoadoHo>oo HsOHHOumHm womxma.oonHoon eHwHuo mo muuom musooH HmuHeso saws one some Hommo> mmHdem¢> H4¢DHHDU .m ouome 90 change, the formative process as a whole changes and different vessel distributions result. With this model of the formative process as a basis for the remainder of this study, a series of hypotheses can be presented that relates to spatial distribution of vessels. The following 21 hypotheses test relationships between variables that apply to the question of ' spatial patterning. The first 15 hypotheses deal with the depositional components (in this case--salvage) of vessels after deposition takes place. Collectively, these hypotheses will probe the relationships between key variables in the formative process as they relate to the mechanism of spatial distribution and patterning. Hypothesis 1 The iron, grain, and coal industries operated under different procurement, distribution, transportation, and marketing conditions. The related commodities that were shipped across Lake Superior were transported along different trade routes with varying traffic frequency. Because of these and associated factors, it would be expected that there will be significant distributional differences between shipwrecks of these three different commodity trades. Test implications for hypothesis 1: 1) There will be significant differences between the distribution of iron industry related shipwrecks and grain trade related shipwrecks for the period 1855-1920. 2) There will be statistically significant differences between the spatial distribution of iron industry related shipwrecks and coal trade related shipwrecks for the period 1855-1920. 91 3) There will be significant differences between the spatial distribution of grain trade related shipwrecks and coal trade related shipwrecks for the period 1855-1920. Hypothesis 2 As the development of the Lake Superior region progressed and new water transportation routes were established, the flow of traffic across the lake was markedly altered. For example, as the iron industry expanded into new areas of production in the western portion of the region, the routes of ore transportation went through a series of modifications. Theoretically, corresponding shipwrecks would also have changed distribution if they are representative of past behavioral changes. Therefore, it would be expected that there will be significant distributional differences of shipwrecks by chronological period. Test implications for hypothesis 2: 1) There will be significant distributional differences of ship- wrecks by chronological period for iron, grain, and coal related vessels. 2) There will be significant distributional differences for all Lake Superior shipwrecks by chronological period. Hypothesis 3 Within the iron and grain industries, there were different but related types of commodities traveling along similar routes of trans- portation. The grain trade involved the shipment of wheat, oats, barley, corn, and flour from the Duluth and Port Arthur ports. The iron industry out of Marquette focused on both the local production and shipment of pig iron as well as the movement of iron ore in the pre-l880 92 period. The particular qualities of these commodities may have resulted in different patterns of loss for each cargo type. Therefore, it would be expected that there will be significant distributional differences between related cargg types within theygrain trade and iron industries. Test implications for Hypothesis 3: 1) There will be significant distribution differences between lost vessels carrying a) oats, b) wheat, c) corn, d) barley, and e) flour from Duluth for the period 1870-1920. 2) There will be significant distribution differences between lost vessels carrying pig iron and vessels carrying iron ore for the period 1855-1880. Hypothesis 4 Transportation on the Great Lakes is seasonal by nature and restricted to the months of ice-free navigation. This of course varies from year to year and is dependent upon the pecularities of weather in the fall and spring months. When the navigation season is short because of an early winter or late spring, more cargo must be moved in less time than in a longer season. This results in greater traffic congestion on the Lakes during the navigable months, as well as more risktaking by companies and their vessel captains in order to insure that the maximum amount of cargo will be moved. On Lake Superior, the length of the shipping season was very important for the commodity trade in bulk cargoes because of the rack of alternate economical means of transporta- tion during the winter months. For the most part, grain, coal, and iron ore were very dependent upon water transport for marketing and distri- bution. The combination of congested traffic and a need for maximized cargo movement may have had an effect on vessel loss. For these 93 reasons, it would be expected that there will be an inverse correlation between the length of the nayigation season and the frequency with which vessels of different commodities were lost. Test implication for Hypothesis 4: 1) More grain, ore, and coal shipwrecks will occur during years with short navigation seasons than with average or longer seasons . Hypothesis 5 Throughout the history of the Great Lakes, weather has been a significant factor in vessel loss. On Lake Superior, the occurrence of storms, fogs, and other hazardous conditions has led to the demise of many vessels. Storms, for example, are particularly prevalent from mid-October to the close of navigation, while fog is of greater concern during the early months of the seasons when differences between water temperature and air temperature are condusive to fog-producing conditions. These conditions are of importance to all vessels on the lake regardless of the specific cargo being carried. Since weather is a natural factor, it should therefore effect all vessels carrying grain or coal to the same extent as those carrying ore. It would be expected that there will be nogsignificant differences in the frequency of stormrrelated shipwrecks between vessels with caggoes of specific commodityitypes. Test implication for Hypothesis 5: 1) Stormrrelated losses of vessels in the iron industry will be the same as losses in the coal or grain trades. 94 Hypothesis 6 The transportation routes followed by Lake Superior vessels were different in a number of ways. The distance of routes varied as did the navigational hazards encountered along those routes. These factors combined to make some routes more dangerous than others. Ports of origin for lost vessels provide information on the routes being traveled at different points in time. Since the port of origin is a reflection of the transportation route, and because all routes are both geographically and functionally different, it would be expected that there will be distributional differences between vessels of different ports of origin. Test implication for Hypothesis 6: 1) Lost vessels from Duluth, Two Harbors, Ashland, Marquette, and Port Arthur will exhibit different patterns of distribution. ,Hypothesis 7 The commodities of iron, coal, and grain operated under differ- ent procurement, transportation, distribution, and marketing systems. These differences may have resulted in corresponding differences in the types of vessels employed in the transportation of these commodities. Despite the fact that all three commodities were transported by bulk carriers, there may be some differences in vessel types. For example, because of the relatively greater importance of iron ore over grain, there may be differences in the types and sizes of vessels selected to carry each commodity. Iron ore vessels may be larger in average size than vessels of the grain trade for each respective period of time. Therefore, it would be expected that there will be statistically significant differences between the types of vessels employed in the 95 iron trade as opposed to either thqurain or coal trades. Test implications for Hypothesis 7: 1) There will be statistically significant differences in vessel types lost with cargoes of ore, as opposed to carriers of grain or coal. Hypothesis 8 Because of the economics of water transportation, there was a steady increase over time in the size of lake vessels specializing in the movement of bulk cargoes such as iron ore, grain, and coal. The trend toward larger vessels required modifications in vessel design and structure, resulting in the gradual development of new types of vessels. The change from schooners, to propellors, to schooner-barges, and finally to steamers is well-documented for the Great Lakes, including the Lake Superior region. It would therefore be expected £322 shipwrecks will reflect the changes in vessel type that occurred over IQEE? Test implication for Hypothesis 8: 1) The types of vessels lost will vary in frequency by the chronological period of development. Hypothesis 9 Lake Superior shipwrecks can be categorized into four major causal types of loss: 1) collision, 2) grounding, 3) fire, and 4) foundering. These types of loss were a result of a combination of natural and cultural factors affecting vessels in different ways. Because of the differences in vessel type, transportation routes, cargoes, and relative frequency of traffic, these types of loss may have 96 had greater influence on vessels of some industries than others. For example, the nature of grain cargoes may have a bearing on the types of loss associated with grain trade vessels. Therefore, it would be expected that there will be significant differences in the extent to which each commodity (i.e., coalipgraini iron) was affected by each of the four major types of loss categggies. Test implications for Hypothesis 9: 1) Fire will have affected vessels of the iron, coal, and grain trades to a significantly different extent. 2) Collision will have affected vessels of the iron, coal, and grain trades to a significantly different extent. 3) Foundering will have affected vessels of the iron, coal, and grain trade8.to a significantly different extent. 4) Grounding will have affected vessels of the iron, coal, and grain trades to a significantly different extent. Hypotheses 10 and 11 The four types of vessel loss (i.e., collision, grounding, foundering, and fire) are different phenomena with different causal factors contributing to vessel 1088. Those factors behind type of loss include transportation routes, navigational hazards, transportation technology, weather, etc. Because these same factors contribute to the distribution of shipwrecks in Lake Superior, there may be a link between the type of loss affecting a vessel and the location of the lost vessel. Therefore, it would be expected that there will be significant distributional differences between vessels of different loss categories. 97 Test implications for Hypothesis 10: 1) There will be significant distributional differences between vessels lost by collision, grounding, foundering, and fire. In addition, since the type of loss is correlated with transportation routes and transportation technology that change through time, it would also be expected that the frequencies of vessels in each of the four loss categpries will vary by chronological period. Hypotheses 12 and 13 As vessel design changed through time, the ability of those vessels to cope with the hazards of the regions also changed. For example, the change from schooners to steamrpowered craft decreased the length of travel from one point to another, providing greater indepen- dence from the unpredictability of winds and weather. To some extent, the new steam craft could better cOpe with the environment and would therefore be less prone to losses caused by winds or weather. But, the physical structure of the new steam vessels might have made them more vulnerable to other hazards. It would therefore be expected that there will be a correlation between some vessel types and corregponding types of 1088.. Test implication for Hypothesis 12: 1) Vessel types such as schooners, schooner barges, propellers, wooden steamers, and iron steamers will correlate more with certain types of vessel loss than with others. In addition, because some geographic areas may have placed more stress upon some vessel types than other areas, it would also be expected that there will be significant distributional differences between vessels of different types. 98 Test implication for Hypothesis 13: 1) Schooners, schooner-barges, propellers, wooden steamers, and iron steamers will exhibit significant differences in distributional patterns. Hypothesis 14 The iron, grain, and coal commodities transported on Lake Superior varied in importance. Iron ore, for example, was transported in much greater quantities than either grain or coal. The relative importance of these commodities had a major effect on their transporta- tion as well as on the frequency of traffic associated with each. If frequency of traffic is related to frequency of loss, then it would be expected that there will be a direct correlation between the relative freqpency of traffic and the correspondingfifrequency of vessel loss. Test implication for Hypothesis 14: 1) There will be a direct correlation between the frequency of iron industry traffic and the frequency of vessels lost in that industry. Hypothesis 15 Vessels of the Lake Superior shipping industry traveled along different transportation routes because of the origins of the various 'commodities. The iron industry shipments originated from the ports of Two Harbors, Ashland, Duluth, and Marquette, while the grain trade operated primarily from.Duluth and Port Arthur. The frequency of traffic from these ports in the associated commodities should therefore be reflected in the relative origins of the vessels lost in the corresponding chronological periods. For example, if 50 percent of the 99 grain shipments for the period 1870-l910 originated from Duluth, then 50 percent of the associated grain vessels lost should also have originated from that port. Therefore, it would be expected that £2352 will be a direct correlation between the frequency of traffic in a_given commodity from a given port and the associated frequency of vessels lost from that_port. Test implication for Hypothesis 15: 1) The ratio of iron industry vessels lost from Two Harbors, Ashland, Duluth, and Marquette will directly correlate with the frequency of traffic from those ports for the period 1855-1920. Type B Archaeological Transform Hypothesis Archaeological transforms are those cultural and environmental factors that influenced the formation of the archaeological record from the point of deposition to the present condition of the record. Although there are numerous factors that affect shipwrecks in Lake Superior, only those elements that are historically documented will be considered here. As future underwater archaeological investigations in the region are undertaken, increased knowledge of these factors will accumulate. Such studies will enhance our knowledge of archaeological transforms and their influence on the formation of our present under- water archaeological record. Several hypotheses here relate to Type B transforms involving the element of salvage. Salvage is an important factor to consider because once vessels are deposited on shore or on the bottomlands, they become a potential source of the archaeological record. If they are consequently salvaged, they never become a part of the shipwreck record. The influences of salvage on the archaeological record can be learned 100 in part by comparing those vessels that were not salvaged to those vessels that were. Figure 9 illustrates the role of salvage in the formation of the shipwreck archaeological record. In order to under- stand a large portion of the mechanics of the Type B transformation process, it is essential to understand the salvage behavior that conr tributed to this process. Unfortunately, historical records involving salvage are incomplete and difficult to obtain. This situation necessitates that other measures be used to arrive at both the question of the extent to which salvage was accomplished and whether the vessels salvaged are spatially patterned. If the locations and characteristics of salvaged shipwrecks are the same as those that were not, then the question of patterning is resolved. If, however, there are differences between the two groups (salvaged/not salvaged), then it is necessary to evaluate the extent of these differences as well as possible reasons for these differences. So the major hypothesis for this section is that if the depositional context is spatially patterned, then the archaeological context will be patterned in a like manner. An investigation of this major hypothesis, as well as of the special conditions of salvage, will be outlined by the following hypotheses. Hypotheses 16-21 Because of the factors discussed in this last section, we can hypothesize that if no relationship exists between certain factors and the salvagability of vessels then: Hypothesis 16-There will be no significant differences between salvaged vessels and nonsalvaged vessels in regard 101 Figure 9. Salvage and the formative process 102 muouosw Hoeuo nwsounu mnoH unsusoo HsOHonoossoue somuoHseoe soouseHeo usououm ows>Hsm unousoo HmaoHOHmoeon oomp>Hmm nos oxoouseHnm omoH hHHmusHuo axooHanem mo eoeuuHsoom mo dowumHamom 1&1 assouuaaue m «use Hypothesis Hypothesis Hypothesis Hypothesis Hypothesis 103 to vessel type. 17-There will be no significant differences between salvaged vessels and nonsalvaged vessels in regard to the port of origin of the respective vessels. 18--There will be no significant differences between salvaged vessels and nonsalvaged vessels in regard to the month of loss. 19--There will be no significant distributional differ- ences between salvaged vessels and nonsalvaged vessels for each commodity and for all vessels lost on Lake Superior. 20--There will be no significant differences between salvaged vessels and nonsalvaged vessels in regard to the type of loss that brought about the respective shipwrecks. 21-There will be no significant differences in regard to the frequency of salvage between vessels of the iron, grain, and coal trades. CHAPTER V METHODOLOGY This chapter outlines and discusses the methods by which the hypotheses posed in chapter 4 will be tested and evaluated. Of the 21 hypotheses presented, as many as possible will be tested, given the limitations of the data base. In chapter 6, each individual hypothesis will be restated and tested using the techniques set forth in this chapter. Shipwreck Attributes Defined In order to test hypotheses concerning Lake Superior shipwrecks, it is necessary to define the types of data needed to complete the analysis. As previously discussed, shipwrecks are extremely diverse in their individual characteristics because of their chronology, function, or deposition. Despite this diversity, a number of attributes are common to all shipwrecks and serve to cross-cut the population of Great Lakes vessels. These attributes form the basis for the hypotheses pre- sented in chapter 4 and will serve as the data base from which hypotheses can be analyzed in the following sections. Following is the list of key attributes that will be dealt with throughout the remainder of this study: 1) Shipwreck category - total loss vs. salvaged vessels; 2) Vessel type - schooner, schooner-barge, wooden steamer, steel steamer, misc.; 104 105 3) Date of loss - monthiand'year; 4) Point of origin - Duluth, Two Harbors, Ashland, Marquette, Port Arthur, misc.; 5) Location of loss - in Poisson grid; 6) Cargo - iron, grain, coal; 7) Type of loss - fire, grounding, foundering, collision; 8) Weather conditions at time of loss - presence/absence of storms, fog. Other attributes not related specifically to shipwrecks but rather to the shipping industry as a whole include: 9) Frequency of traffic from ports; 10) Routes of travel; 11) Frequency of loss; 12) Frequency of salvage. These 12 attributes are essential to the successful testing of the hypotheses under consideration as well as the interpretation of the test results. Abstraction of Attributes from Historical Sources After the essential attributes needed to test hypotheses are defined, the data-gathering phase of the research can begin. In relation to this study, the body of information from which attribute data can be abstracted consists of several historical treatments of Great Lakes shipwrecks. These studies are either historical case studies on the losses of individual vessels, such as Wolff's (1979) recent work, or they are inventories of lost vessels compiled by various authors (Heden 1966; Winkleman 1971). These sources provide an 106 information base that deals with vessel attributes in either a direct or indirect manner. Wolff's (1979) study in particular was a detailed accounting of more than 1,000 Lake Superior accidents. These case studies have been abstracted for details on vessel attributes, and data sheets on each lost vessel have been prepared. As a base for this study, information on a total of 146 recorded shipwrecks has been abstracted from historical sources. The data sheets compiled for these vessels constitute a collection of vessel attributes that can be drawn upon and quantified to test the hypotheses. A total of 146 lost vessels is relatively small in relation to the actual number of accidents that have occurred over the years, but it is the total population of known recorded losses for the period. Although there may be a few vessel losses that were not recorded for various reasons, given the reliability of the historical sources used, there is no reason to believe that many, if any, losses went unrecorded. The one limitation of the data is that the list of 146 vessels is small and that in approximately 20 percent of the cases, data on individual vessel attributes are partial. For example, case studies on some vessels fail to list one or more characteristics, such as point of origin or condition of loss, and are therefore not as complete as could be desired. But since most of the case studies allow for the full completion of data sheets, this does not appear to be a major liability. The lost vessels and their associated attributes are listed in a cone densed form in.Appendix B. 107 Quantification of Attributes After data sheets are prepared from historical treatments of shipwrecks, the attributes listed on the sheets can be tabulated by category. For example, the type of vessel loss is of relevance to the testing of several hypotheses. Fire, grounding, foundering and collis- ion are the four categories of loss into which most (if not all) types of vessel losses can be placed. From the data sheets, a simple count can be made of all vessels of known loss types and the relative fre- quencies can be tabulated for each of the loss categories. With a sample size of 146, all counts could be completed by hand without the use of computer assistance. Finer breakdowns of attributes can be made as desired so that, for example, the relative frequencies of loss types for both salvaged and totally lost vessels could also be tabulated if so desired. By this means, attributes can easily be cross-tabulated and quantified for comparisons using statistical tests. The limitation of a small sample size prevents some cross-tabulations from being used because of the very low frequencies encountered when numerous categories are used. A cross-tabulation between loss type and vessel type in regard to those vessels lost in storms (for example) would prove to be unfeasible because of partial data and low sample size. But most cross-tabulations are easily completed, as are simple attribute counts and presence/absence totals. The resulting raw scores of vessel or attribute counts are then analyzed using statistical techniques appropriate for nominal scale data. Statistical Evaluation The frequency counts of vessel attributes obtained from the data sheets are then evaluated through the use of several statistical 108 techniques. Those tests used in this study are 1) Poisson distribution for locational data, 2) Kolmogorov-Smirnov test for goodness of fit (used in conjunction with Poisson), 3) Contingency Chi Square, and 4) Kx2 Chi Square; the last two tests are used to test strength of associations between attributes. These will be briefly described here, and chapter 6 contains examples of each. Poisson Distribution The Poisson distribution is a frequency distribution of rare events that is randomly patterned. When the Poisson distribution is compared to a distribution derived from a sample group, it can be determined whether or not that sample is likewise randomly patterned. This technique has been commonly used in probability mathematics and statistics since its first description in 1837 (Sokal and Rohlf 1969: 84), and in recent years, it has been applied to point pattern analysis by geographers and archaeologists (Hodder and Orton 1976:34). This latter application of Poisson is accomplished by means of a grid system imposed over a spatial plane and the tabulation of a variable's frequency of occurrence for each cell of the grid. The frequencies of variables occurring throughout the cells of the grid area are then compared with an expected (Poisson) distribution of those variables to determine if the variable is randomly or nonrandomly spatially patterned. The use of Poisson in this study is particularly well-adapted to the determination of patterning among Lake Superior shipwrecks. By definition, shipwrecks are rare events and relatively scarce in relation to the tremendous amount of traffic on the lake in a given season. So the use of Poisson to evaluate spatial patterning of wrecks is very appropriate to small samples (Sokal and Rohlf 1969:81-95). And 109 since only 146 vessels are recorded lost on Lake Superior for the perio” in question, thisalso appears to be an appropriate test of the data. For the use of Poisson on Lake Superior shipwrecks, a grid system was established across the lake based on latitude and longitude in 30~minute increments. The resulting grid system was composed of 65 rectangular cells of equal size (see Figure 10). Although theoretically these cells were of equal area, in actuality some cells were smaller than others because they fell on land areas that would not afford equal access as water arenas. For example, cell 58 on Whitefish Point is roughly half water and half land in area. This is in contrast to cell 42, immediately to the north, in which the surface area is 100 percent water. Theoretically, this differential cell size could have an impact on the frequency of vessels lost in the respective cells. Although this problem was carefully considered and adjustments in scores (or cells) could have been made to correct for such differential' access, it was decided to leave the grid uncorrected. This decision was based on a cursory examination of wreck distributions to determine if cell counts were substantially higher for all-water cells versus partial-water cells. The results of this examination showed that shoreline cells were in actuality significantly more associated with wrecks than all-water cells. For example, cell 58, which was 50 percent water, had a total of 15 losses, while cell 42, which was 100 percent water, had no wrecks for the same period. It appears that although there may be some differential access across cells, there is no major block to patterning. If correction techniques were used, the results of the Poisson comparisons would be intensified rather than smoothed. Since this intensification is probably not necessary, the decision was Figure 10. Poisson grid system 110 111 V maiz up h(.—m 1N u.¢( .whm p :(m 02.2 F9 ion/3 —T~ 112 made to accept the 65-cell grid system despite its imperfections. Once the grid system.was imposed across the lake surface, the locations of wrecks were plotted based on the information provided in the historical sources. In approximately 75 percent of the cases, the location of loss was very exact-especially with groundings. For example, a location listed as a grounding one mile east of the Big Two Hearted River (cell 58) is easily plotted on the map and little difficulty is encountered assigning the loss to a grid cell. In other cases, a location listed meiles west of a certain point is less easily plotted on the map and is less exacting. There is little problem assigning these locations to a grid cell despite the lack of exact location because each grid cell is approximately 820 square miles in area. With the use of a grid system, if a location is mis-plotted by a couple of miles one way or the other, there is usually no problem placing vessels into incorrect cells. But if the number of cells was increased and the square area of each therefore decreased, some problems may occur. The 65-cell grid system used for this study was large enough to facilitate plotting of vessels yet small enough to detect subtle variations in patterning that would otherwise be masked with larger cells. In only a few cases was vessel location difficult to plot, and when such instances arose the plot was either done judgmental- ly if a reasonable assurance of accuracy could be made, or was not plotted if locational information was deemed insufficient. A location listed as "between Keweenaw Point and Whitefish Point" was not plotted because it lacked precise information. Of 146 total shipwrecks, only 13 (9 percent) could not reliably be plotted or did not have locational information provided. 113 Once vessels were located on the map and assigned a cell number, tabulations could be made in relation to particular attributes. For example, all vessels from the Marquette port could be tabulated by their frequency of occurrence in the grid cells. Some cells had no vessels from Marquette, while others had one or more. The frequencies of the Marquette vessel distributions in these cells could then be compared to an expected random.Poisson distribution for determination of patterning. Vessels from.Marquette could then be determined as being randomly distributed across the lake or nonrandomly distributed in either a "regular" or "clumped" pattern. The actual type of pattern can be determined by the computation of the coefficient of dispersion (CD), which is equal to the variance (82) divided by the mean (§). This coefficient will be near 1 in distributions that are essentially Poisson, greater than 1 in clumped samples, and less than 1 in regular frequency distributions (Sokal and Rohlf 1969:88; Hodder and Orton 1976:34). In addition, since the variance is a function of the mean in a Poisson distribution, the variance will equal the mean when the dis- tribution is randomly patterned. The following formulae were used to calculate the relative expected frequencies of the Poisson distribution. 11y FYZF $33? if. ’ _ ’ _ ’ _ 9 _ , o o 0 Y e Y Y 1 2 ZeY 3 2 x 3eY where T'- sample mean and #7 is the function of the mean. To obtain the absolute expected frequencies, the first term must be multiplied by n, the number of samples. -2 f0_ :1- , flall 3?, f2. n: 1" f3_ nY_ 1,. Y Y Y 2 Y 3 e e e 2e The variance, 82, can be determined through the following formula: Variance = Z fny2 n where y - # per cell - mean and f 8 observed frequency. The coefficient of dispersion is calculated in the following manner: 2 8 Y C.D. - The actual computation of Poisson distributions will not be discussed in this study since it is a well-known technique.. The reader is directed to Sokal and Rohlf (1969:81-95), Steel and Torrie (1960: 395-399), Doran and Hodson (1975:44-51), Hodder and Orton (1976:33-38), and Dacey (1968:172-180) for specifics on computation and applicability of Poisson distributions. Generally, however, the computation of Poisson is accomplished through the comparison of observed frequencies (such.as the number of shipwrecks occurring in each.of the 65 cells of the Lake Superior grid system) to computed expected frequencies that would be randomly distributed based on the mean and sample size. A goodness of fit test is then computed on the deviation between the observed and expected values and a determination of association is arrived at for various levels of significance. Both the Chi Square and Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests are applicable to this regard (Hodder and Orton 1976:38). 115 Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test of Goodness of Fit In order to evaluate deviations between Poisson distributions and observed distributions, a goodness of fit test is required. For this purpose, the Kilmogorov-Smirnov test is especially well-suited because it is not subjected to the limitations of sample size and expected frequencies, as is the Chi Square (X2) test. With the X2 test, the observed frequencies must remain above 5, otherwise the tail of the distribution becomes distorted, affecting X2 interpretation. This often necessitates the merging of groups to obtain the needed frequency, which in turn reduces the degrees of freedom.and may obscure the deviations from.the predicted Poisson distribution (Hodder and Orton 1976:38). With the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, cumulative observed and expected frequencies are computed, as are cumulative deviations. This cumulative process eliminates the need for merging groups and is more reliable for testing small samples, such as is the case in this ship- wreck study. The point of maximum deviation is then divided by the sample number (which is 65 because of the grid), and the statistic D is obtained. This statistic is then compared with critical values to determine confidence levels for accepting or rejecting the null hypo- thesis that the observed frequency distribution fits the Poisson (random) distribution. It is necessary to calculate the cumulative observed, F, and cumulative expected frequencies, F,-the8e frequencies are subtracted to determine cumulative deviations and ultimately identify dmax' Thus d - F - F and the largest valu: is labeled dmax' The following formula is used to find D; D --E%¥. For further discussion of computation and applicability, see Siegel (1956:47-60) and Sokal and Rohlf (1969:571-575). 116 Contingency Chi Square The contingency chi square test measures the extent of association or relation between two sets of attributes (Siegel 1956: 104-111, 175-179, 196:202; Sokal and Rohlf 1969:550-572). For the purpose of this study, this test was used to test the association between shipwreck attributes. Raw scores tabulated from data sheets provided the nominal scale data for tabulations of observed frequencies. Using two attributes, a contingency table is constructed of observed frequencies. From these frequencies, the expected frequencies for each cell are generated by multiplying the sum of rows by the sum.of columns in the table and dividing by the total sample size. For example, an analysis of the association between different commodities (iron, grain, coal) and types of vessel loss (collision, fire, grounding, foundering) would result in a 12-cell contingency table with observed frequencies being the number of vessels in each of the industries that were wrecked due to each of the four categories of vessel loss. The sums of fre- quencies for loss type (rows) and commodity types (columns) would be computed and multiplied by corresponding cells for division by the total sample size. The Chi Square values for each cell would then be computed by summing the square of the deviations between observed and expected frequencies and dividing by the expected values. In this manner, a X2 value for each cell is computed and the relative association between attribute elements can be interpreted by the size of this value. The final step of the process is to sum all the X2 values 117 in each cell and to compare that figure to X2 tables for confidence evaluation. A total chi square value greater than the tabular value is grounds for rejecting the null hypothesis that there is no association between attributes (e.g., commodity and type of loss). This test is used extensively in this study to evaluate the degree of association between numerous combinations of vessel attributes. Kx2 Chi Square This test is mathematically similar to the contingency Chi Square just described but has different application. The Kx2 test provides a test of association between one attribute and two other attributes, the latter of which are variations of a single population. For example, the extent of association between type of vessel loss and the differential degree of salvaged versus totally lost vessels can be computed using the Kx2 Chi Square method. For the hypotheses that involve the attribute of salvaged/total loss, this test can be used to determine strength of association between the segments of that attribute and other attributes such as vessel type and loss type. The computation of the X2 value is accomplished through an analysis of, for example, proportions between lost and salvaged vessels relative to the sample size. See Steel and Torrie (1960:370- 371) for specifics of computation. The overall result of this computa- tion process is a X2 value that can be evaluated for association at confidence levels. The minimum acceptable confidence level for both the contingency X2 and KxZ X2 values is the .05 level. A computed X2 value greater than the confidence value is grounds for rejecting the null hypothesis that the ratio of salvaged to nonsalvaged (total loss) 118 vessels does not vary by more than chance from one attribute element (e.g., collision, fire, grounding, etc.) to another. These four tests (Poisson, Kilmogorov-Smirnov, Contingency X2, Kx2 X2) form.the basis for the statistical evaluation of shipwreck attributes used in this study. In the following chapter examples of these tests will be provided as each hypothesis is analyzed. Interpretation of Results As the logical conclusions to the testing of hypotheses pre- sented in chapter 4, chapter 7 will synthesize and interpret results. As a methodological step in this research, this will be the most important step toward evaluating the question of representativeness, around which this study is based. Since the subject will be treated in detail, it is unnecessary to describe here the specifics of that evaluation process. It is useful to say that the relationship between attributes are hierarchically ordered so that the results of hypotheses testing of earlier propositions will have a bearing on the interpreta- tion of later prOpositions. For example, hypothesis 1 proposes that distributional differences will occur between shipwrecks associated with the iron, grain, and coal industries. The results of the testing of hypothesis 1 will then have a bearing on the interpretation of re- sults (not the results themselves) of other hypotheses that deal with both distributional differences and commodity differences. Chapter 7 will describe in detail the process of interpretation and will discuss the specific links between hypotheses. CHAPTER VI HYPOTHESIS TESTING Introduction The hypotheses tested in this chapter involve the formative process of the archaeological record as it applies to the spatial dis- tribution of irons, grains, and coal-affiliated shipwrecks. Central to the question of spatial patterning are the individual variables that contribute to vessel loss, deposition, and decomposition, as well as those factors that influence the shipping industry as a whole. The 21 hypotheses tested here have been posed because of their relevance to the understanding of the patterning process. As previously discussed, the first 15 hypotheses relate specifically to the process of vessel loss, while the remaining six discuss the role of salvage in the current deposition of vessels. It is important to outline the relationships between the variables being tested as well as the specific hypotheses used to accomplish the tests. The variables examined in this chapter are closely interrelated and often have an impact on one another through direct or indirect means. These variables can be viewed as a systems framework that links each element together into a cohesive network. To establish the association between the variables, 21 hypotheses were created to explore these relationships as they apply ultimately to the spatial distribution of shipwrecks in Lake Superior. Figure 11 graphically illustrates the variables under consideration along with 119 120 Figure 11. Variables under consideration 121 mark mmOH m. m— ex S cm a .— mmwa monH mu<>qms 1 honeymooo common wsHooHsm mo sumsoH .wom .mauoum 1 scenes: mm4m Azm x7 mooooum o>Humanom owsmno HoonoHossooH mooH no more usHuo mo uuom onmmuu mo hososoonh mMHn Akomno Hmoo mm mm.~ o.“ MN: on. m.m o mm.H m.w ma mm.~ m.o N oo.H m.m m «N wouooexo vo>uomao :Houw mm A¢HOH no. o.mH 0H Honuo msooeoaaoomfiz co. o.oH NH uoaooum Hmmum mm. H.¢H ma Hoammum emeooz om.H m.ma ma owume Iuoeooeom Hm. ¢.HH a Hmeoonom Nx venomexm vo>ummno some Hommo> eouH endomom .He magma 150 schooners w coal schooner—barges - grain, iron wooden steamers — grain #WNH steel steamers - equal for all commodities 5. miscellaneous vessels - grain, coal Hypothesis 7 - Summary and Results The results of the testing confirm hypothesis 7 because an association clearly exists between vessel types and certain commodity groups, and because this association is different for each group. The iron industry appears to lose proportionally higher numbers of schooner-barges; the grain trade loses a larger number of vessel types, including wooden steamers and miscellaneous vessels; and the coal trade primarily loses schooners. Fewer than expected deviations occur, with the grain trade using fewer schooner-barges and the coal trade fewer miscellaneous vessels. Hypothesis 8 Hypothesis 8 states that shipwrecks will reflect the changes in vessel type that occurred over time. This proposition is very general and is open to several possible types of testing and interpre- tation. Implied in this statement is that relative frequencies of vessel types will change over time and that these changes will parallel those changes in vessel technology described in chapter 2. The general sequence of loss should approximate the sequence of development that is documented for the Great Lakes. 151 Test for Hypothesis 8 The test for this hypothesis will be accomplished through an analysis of the association between various vessel types and three periods of chronological development. Since this study is concerned with the period 1855-1930, three chronological segments of equal size (25 years each) were selected: period 1, 1855—1879; period 2, 1880- 1904; and period 3, 1905—1930. vessels were categorized within these three periods and by vessel type, and relative frequencies were tabulated from the data tables provided in Appendix B. The resulting contingency table was the analyzed using a contingency Chi Square, with.the results shown in Table 42. The cumulative X2 value of 81.81 is significant at the .005 level with eight degrees of freedom (22.0). But there are several problems with the analysis. The small sample size for period 1 (1855-1879) resulted in four expected values below five, which have a tendency to distort the tail of the distribution. This test also assumes that all vessel types would be represented in each period-dwhich they were not. Steel steamers, for example, are known to have originated during period 2, which explains the zero observed frequency for this category during period 1. Given these problems, it is best to simply discuss the differing observed frequencies for each period and to de—emphasize the X2 results. Hypothesis 8 - Summary and Results Because of the unreliability of the X2 test, the interpretation of the test results must be based on the observed frequencies. During period 1, 13 of 21 (62 percent) vessels lost were schooners. Period 2 shows a predominance of schooner-barges (28 percent) and wood steamers 152 eqH No «N Ho. mm.oH OH Hm mm.wH mm.mH mN He mH. no.5H oH 9N mm.H mH.HH o NN mm.“ 5¢.¢ H Nx pouooexo em>uomno m ooHnom Ho moo. RH.oH OH qq.m MH.mH N mm.N um.NH «N eN.m Ho.HH NH aH. Nm.¢ w NN mouoonxo eo>uomeo N voHumm HN H4909 . . mHommo> «e on m e moomemHHoomHz . . Hoamoum NN q Nm e o Hmoum . . Hoamoum Hm n mm m H eovooz . . mwumn NH on m m luoeooeom mm.¢N HN.m MH Hoeooeom Nx mouuoexo om>uomnc mama Hommo> H eOHuom manmom .Ne OHQMH 153 (39 percent), while steel steamers (47 percent) dominate period 3. These differences illustrate a chronological succession of losses comparable to the development of vessels discussed in chapter 2. In addition, a slight time lag is noted between the introduction of a new vessel type and the period of loss for that same type. The vessel data presented in Appendix B also illustrates this loss sequence. Based on this discussion, hypothesis 8 can be accepted because vessel loss reflects the changes in type that occurred over time. Hypothesis 9 This hypothesis proposes that there will be significant dif— ferences in the extent to which iron, grain, and coal were affected by different types of loss. The four major types of loss--grounding, foundering, fire, and collision--should therefore be differentially associated with each of the commodities, and an association between commodity and loss type must be demonstrated to confirm this hypothesis. Test for Hypothesis 9 In the testing of this hypothesis, vessels were categorized by commodity and loss type, and the frequencies of each were tabulated and placed into a contingency table. Overall, groundings and founderings were most frequent with 51 percent and 27 percent of all vessels respectively, followed by collisions and fire at 13 percent and 5 percent respectively. Because of the relatively small numbers of vessels in the last two categories, these were combined for analysis. A total of 136 vessels could be placed into one of the resulting nine cells of the table. 154 The contingency table created was then analyzed using the contingency Chi Square test, and X2 values were obtained for each cell in the table. The results of that analysis are given in Table 43. The X2 values of each cell illustrate the degree of association between the various attribute elements. As can be seen in Table 43, there are no associations of any substance within particular cells. The summation of X2 values results in a value of 2.48, which is far less than the 9.49 needed for the .05 confidence level with four degrees of freedom. So, there are no grounds for rejecting the null hypothesis that "there is no association between commodity type and type of loss." Hypothesis 9 - Results and Summary The results of the testing for hypothesis 9 demonstrate that the iron-, grain-, and coal-related vessels were not differentially affected by specific types of loss. Grounding, foundering, fire, and collision had approximately the same effect on each industry. Hypothesis 9 is therefore rejected because there was no demonstration of significant association. 155 QMH mN mm mm em RN. m.o m mo. m.m m 0H. m.mH 0N Nx condemns eo>uomno Hoou Hm we. o.m a co. n.w m mm. e.oH mH NN wouoonxm mo>uomno eHouu an nuomeo some wood eouH muasmmm .ms qume 156 Hypothesis 10 Hypothesis 10 states that there will be significant distribu- tional differences between vessels of different loss categories. For example, vessels lost by grounding should be distributed differently from vessels lost by fire, collision, foundering-and so forth. In order to accept this hypothesis, it must be demonstrated that vessels of each loss category are nonrandom in their spatial distributions and that they are distributed in different patterns from one another. Test for Hypothesis 10 Vessels were divided into four categories based on their condition of loss, and they were plotted onto a Poisson grid system for Lake Superior. The number of vessels occurring in each of the 65 cells were recorded, tabulated and placed in Appendix C, 10a-d. From these tables, the expected frequencies were calculated for analysis, using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test for goodness of fit. Tables 44-47 illustrate the frequencies for each loss category. Table 44. Grounding number of observed expected wrecks/cell frequencies frequencies 0 36 20.50 1 15 23.66 2 6 13.65 3 2 5.25 4 2 1.52 5 0 .35 6 1 .07 7 1 .01 8 1 .002 9 0 _..-.. 10 o ----- 1 1 o ----- 1 2 o ---- 13 1 ---- 157 Table 45. Foundering number of observed expected wrecks/cell frequencies frequencies 0 47 37.35 1 9 20.69 2 4 5.73 3 3 1.06 4 1 .15 5 0 .02 6 1 .002 Table 46. Collision number of observed expected wrecks/cell frequencies frequencies 0 59 51.59 1 4 11.92 2 0 1.38 3 0 .11 4 1 .006 5 0 ---- 6 0 ---- 7 1 ----- Table 47. Fire number of .observed expected wrecks/cell frequencies frequencies 0 59 59.29 1 6 5.45 From these tables the mean, variance, CD, and D statistic were cal- culated within the results appearing in Table 48. 158 Table 48. Results 2 Loss Type '2 8 CD D Grounding 1.154 4.930 4.272 .23846 Foundering .554 1.293 2.335 .14846 Collision .231 1.008 4.363 .11400 Fire .092 .084 .916 .00400 The high variance and CD exhibited by the grounding category point to a nonrandom pattern. This is confirmed by the D value of .23846, which is significant at the .01 level (.19877). The values for the other three loss categories are not significant at the .05 level (.16567). Therefore, the null hypothesis that "loss types will be randomly distribute " is confirmed for foundering, collision, and fire, but rejected for grounding. The only patterned loss category is that of grounding . Hypothesis 10 - Summary and Results Based on the results of the Poisson test, hypothesis 10 is rejected because in three of four cases, the patterns are nonrandom. In the case of groundings (the most frequent type of loss), clustering of distributions occurred in zones 36, 54, 56, and 58. The former zone is particularly significant, with 13 losses within this area. Collisions appear to cluster in zones 44 and 59, while founderings occur most often in zone 58. The fact that groundings are the most commonly occurring type of loss is significant because these are also highly patterned phenomena. The patterns of weather or local geography may make a major contribution to vessel loss in these areas. Vessels that must pass 159 these two points on a regular basis are therefore in greater danger of loss than vessels traveling by other routes. Hypothesis 11 This hypothesis proposes that the frequencies of vessels in each loss category will vary by chronological period. That is, some loss types will associate with particular chronological periods, and those associations will change over time. In order to confirm this hypothesis, it would be necessary to demonstrate that an association exists and that the association changes over time. Test for Hypothesis 11 The chronological period encompassed by this study covers the 75 years beginning in 1855 and ending in 1930. For the purpose of this test, this period was divided into three equal segments of 25 years each to form.the following segments-1) 1855-1879, 2) 1880-1904, and 3) 1905-1929. Within each of these periods, the frequencies of vessels in each loss category were tabulated and placed in the cells of the created contingency table. The three general loss categories of groundings, foundering, and fire/collision were used as elements of the loss type attribute. Because of low frequencies of loss categories of loss through fire (seven for the entire 75 year period), this category was merged with the collision category for the purpose of testing. The contingency table of frequencies was then analyzed using the contingency Chi Square test with the following results (Table 49). 160 mm— nN cc mm mm mm mm Huomno Nx mouoomwo mo>uomno NM vouoomxo eo>uomeo mmwmwmmmmm m septum N oomumm _ voHuom muHsmom .mq oHan 161 The sum.of the X2 values of each cell resulted in a total value of 6.03, which was not significant at the .05 level with four degrees of freedom (9.49). Therefore, the null hypothesis that "there will be no associ- ation between chronological period and frequencies of losses in each . loss type category" was accepted. Hypothesis 11 - Summary and Results Based on the results of the X2 test, hypothesis 11 was rejected because no association between chronological period and loss type was found. Within each cell of the contingency table, three associations are of particular interest: fewer than expected groundings took place in period 2, more than expected founderings occurred in period 2, and fewer than expected founderings took place in period 3. None of these three associations were significant enough to influence the overall outcome of the test. Hypothesis 12 This hypothesis posits that there will be an association between certain vessel types and the corresponding types of loss. For example, schooners may have been particularly susceptible to a particular type of loss, such as fire or grounding. The same can be said for each vessel type in the five general categories previously described in hypothesis 7. In order to confirm hypothesis 12, it is necessary to demonstrate that an association exists between vessel type and loss type and then to discuss the specific relationships between associated elements. 162 Test for Hypothesis 12 In testing this hypothesis, the attributes of vessel type and loss type were broken into their individual elements as was done in the previous hypotheses 7 and 9. This breakdown resulted in a 15-ce11 contingency table, onto which relative observed frequencies could be tabulated. After the computation of expected frequencies using the contingency X2 method, the analysis was undertaken on each cell. Chi Square values were obtained and can be presented as follows in Table 50. The summation of X2 values resulted in the overall X2 value of 27.42, which is significant at the .005 level (23.60). This is grounds for the rejection of the null hypothesis "that no association exists between vessel type and loss type." Therefore, there is a strong association between these two attributes. When individual cells are examined for their respective X2 values, the reason for the strong association becomes apparent. The most significant association is seen between schooner-barges and foundering, with a X2 value of 10.76. Other associations that can account for the strong association are between 1) schooner-barges and grounding, 2) steel steamers and foundering, 3) schooners and collision/fire, and 4) wooden steamers and collision/fire. -. ..-—l.....—.... -_.4 _A __, 163 cc— «N on an 0N NN mN No. m.q o no. e.m m mm.N w.o _— Ne._ o.< N o_.N m.m _ Nx peacocks oo>uoono ouHm\eonHHHoo mm mo._ N.@ a om.N q.m a mo. o.o_ o. on.o_ N.N @— ON. _.o m NN vouooexo uo>uomno wdHuopesom on H mo 0 m. «— msooemHHoomHz seasons on._ «.0. _N Hossm uoaooum mo. o.ON N. emcee: . . omumn «o N _ e_ m luoeoonom nowo— Go—— @— HUQOOSUW Nx venomous oo>uomeo some Hommo> weHoesouu muHammm .om mHnMH 164 Hypothesis 12 - Summary and Results As previously stated, the strong association demonstrated through the testing process confirms hypothesis 12. The frequency of observed losses as compared to expected losses has also demonstrated that some vessel types are particularly prone to particular types of loss. To be specific, a large proportion of schooner-barges foundered relative to other types of loss. Wooden steamers were also more frequently lost through collision/fire than was expected. Other associations were less than expected, such as with schooner-barges and grounding, steel steamer and foundering, and schooners with collision/ fire. The relative lack of maneuverability for schooner-barges is one possible explanation for that association, since once a barge breaks tow (such as in a storm), it cannot navigate successfully on its own. The correlation of wooden steamers with fire and collision are potentially explained by the relative susceptibility of wooden vessels to fire. Their link to collisions remains a question at the present- time. Hypothesis 13 As stated, this hypothesis proposes that there will be significant distributional differences between vessels of different types. That is, schooners, schooner-barges, wooden steamers, steel steamers, and miscellaneous vessels will each exhibit nonrandom pat- terning. Additionally, if nonrandom patterns are found for each of these vessel types, it would also be expected that these patterns will differ from one another in their spatial distributions. Test for Hypothesis 13 165 In order to test this hypothesis, the distributions of each vessel type were plotted onto the 65-cell grid for Poisson testing. Tables 13a-e in Appendix C present the frequencies obtained. 51-55 illustrate the Poisson test. Table 51. Schooner number of wrecks/cell Table 52. \IOUIJ-‘UON—O Schooner-barge number of wrecks/cell Table 53. NVGUwa—‘C Wooden steamer number of wrecks/cell observed frequencies 5 --ooo--w4>o~ observed frequencies Tables expected frequencies 47.76 14.71 2.27 .23 .02 .001 expected frequencies 50 —‘OOOOOUI\O observed frequencies UI-l-‘UJN—‘C 43 16 2 1 1 2 42.92 17.81 3.70 .51 .05 .004 expected frequencies 36.80 20.94 5.96 1.13 .16 .02 166 Table 54. Steel steamer number of observed expected wrecks/cell frequencies frequencies 0 47 40.95 1 11 18.92 2 S 4.37 3 1 .67 4 0 .08 5 0, .007 6 l ----- Table 55. Miscellaneous vessels number of observed expected wrecks/cell frequencies frequencies 0 50 . 46.30 1 12 15.69 2 0 2.66 3 2 .30 4 1 .03 From these tables, the mean, variance, coefficient of dispersion, and D statistic were calculated with the following results. Table 56. Results Vessel Type ‘§ 82 CD D Schooner .308 1.033 3.353 .12677 Schooner-barge .415 1.258 3.031 .10892 Wooden steamer .569 1.199 2.108 .09538 Steel steamer .462 .626 1.355 .09307 Mlscenanews .339 .593 1.750 .05692 vessels This table shows that the D values calculated are all well below the value needed to reject the null hypothesis that "the distri- bution of vessel types is random." For each vessel type, the spatial 167 distribution is random at the .05 level of significance (.16567). Hypothesis 13 - Summary and Results Hypothesis 13 is rejected based on the lack of nonrandom patterning for all vessel types. Although patterns were not significant in several cases, some clustering was noted in particular zones of the grid. For example, schooners often occurred in zone 54, schooner- barges in 58, wooden steamers in 58 and 59, and steel steamers in 36. This patterning is interesting but not statistically significant. Hypothesis 14 This hypothesis proposes that there will be a direct relation- ship between the relative frequency of traffic vessels in each industry and the corresponding loss of those vessels for the same industries. That is, those industries with the greatest amount of traffic should have the highest rates of vessel loss and vice versa. Test for Hypothesis 14 This hypothesis is very general and can be discussed through a simple comparison of traffic frequencies with loss frequencies. In order to accomplish this, the chronological period 1870-1910 was selected for scrutiny because these are the only years in which all three industries (iron, grain, and coal) were in simultaneous operation. Before 1870, the grain and coal industries were virtually nonexistent on Lake Superior, while after 1910, the frequency of vessel loss diminished to such a degree that frequencies are not comparable between industries. For this 40 year period, the total combined tonnage of the respective commodities was tabulated based on the figures provided by 168 Williamson (1977:212-215, 234-235, 220-221)(see Appendix A). These commodity figures can then be interpreted in terms of relative fre- quency of traffic, assuming that vessel transportation capacities were the same for each industry. This assumption is not difficult to make since iron, grain, and coal were each bulk commodities and were trans- ported by similar means. After the commodities were tabulated, the relative frequency of vessel loss for each correSponding industry was also tabulated using the data provided in Appendix B. The results can be seen in Table 57. Table 57. Results Commodity Tonnage Z Tonnage (traffic) Vessel Losses 2 Losses Iron 404,391,000 71 57 51 Grain 51,252,500 9 28 25 Coal 113,962,500 20 27 24 A comparison between the percent of traffic and the percent of losses shows that iron had nearly seven times more traffic than grain and more than triple that of coal, but had only double the losses of both grain and coal. 0n the other hand, grain had the least traffic but ranked second in total vessel losses. Coal, with 20 percent of the traffic and 24 percent of the losses, was the only commodity for which there was a rough correlation. Hypothesis 14 - Summary and Results Based on the comparison presented in hypothesis 14 is rejected since there is no direct correlation between frequency of traffic and frequency of loss for corresponding commodity groups. The figures seem 169 to indicate that ironrrelated vessels were lost at lower rates relative to frequency of traffic than other industries. Grain experienced high rates of loss in proportion to the amount of cargo transported. Hypothesis 15 Hypothesis 15 states that there will be a direct association between the frequency of traffic in a given commodity from a given port and the associated frequency of vessels lost from that port. That is, if 50 percent of the iron industry traffic is from Marquette, then 50 percent of the losses would also be expected to be from Marquette. Test for Hypothesis 15 The test for hypothesis 15 can be accomplished through the comparison of the relative traffic from Lake Superior ports and the associated loss from those same ports. Since the iron industry is the best recorded for production from each port, only this commodity will be investigated. As discussed in chapter 2, the ports of Duluth, Two Harbors, Ashland, and Marquette served as the major foci for the ship- :ment of iron ore. The relative traffic from each port was calculated from the production figures of the respective areas by dividing the total yearly production from each port by the average yearly vessel capacity. This latter figure was obtained from sources discussed in chapter 3 for the average vessel capacity for certain period of time. .An.average was obtained on a yearly basis by incrementally increasing ‘vessel capacity at an average rate. The annual vessel capacities for the period 1855-1920 are presented in Appendix C, Table 15. The result of this traffic estimation was the conversion of production figures into traffic frequencies. These frequencies can 170 then be compared against vessel loss counts from respective ports tabulated from the data provided in Appendix B. Thus, the following figure for traffic and loss can be obtained. Table 58. Traffic and loss Number of Number of Number of Passages .2255 Passages Losses per sipgle loss Marquette 24,663 25 987 Two Harbors 5,177 4 1,294 Ashland 13,521 11 1,229 Duluth 48,254 17 2,839 These figures indicate that for Marquette, Two Harbors, and Ashland there was an association between increased traffic and increased loss. In those cases, about one ship in 1,000 passages was lost. Duluth, on the other hand, was the anomalous figure, in that although it had the largest proportion of traffic, it had only approximately one loss per 3,000 passages-nearly one third the losses of the other three ports. Hypothesis 15 - Summary and Results On the basis of the comparisons, hypothesis 15 is rejected because a uniform association does not exist between traffic frequency and extent of loss from respective ports. The extremely small sample available for analysis may have had an impact on these results. In addition, there are many intervening variables that have an influence on the vessel loss counts, making them unreliable. For example, the four ports under consideration were not operating simultaneously. Marquette ‘was the only ore-shipping port on Lake Superior for the period 1855-1884. In contrast, Duluth began ore shipments in 1892 when vessel technology 171 was safer and when vessel types (etc.) were different. Therefore, the data for testing this hypothesis was neither extensive nor comparable enough to determine a clear outcome to this traffic loss question. Hypothesis 16 This hypothesis states that there will be no significant dif- ferences between salvaged vessels and nonsalvaged vessels in regard to vessel type. This means, for example, that schooners, schooner-barges, etc. should be salvaged at the same proportional rate. Test for Hypothesis 16 In order to test this hypothesis, each vessel type was categor- ized into two classes--salvaged and nonsalvaged, or total loss. The number of vessels falling into these created categories were tabulated from Appendix B and then analyzed with a Kx2 Chi Square test. Table 59 presents these results. Table 59. Results Vessel Type Total Loss Salvaged Total P PA Schooner 16 6 22 .727 11.632 Schooner-barge 21 5 26 .808 16.968 Wooden steamer 31 6 37 .838 25.978 Steel steamer 12 19 31 .387 4.644 Propeller 4 3 7 .571 2.284 Composite steamer 3 0 3 1.000 3.000 Whaleback 4 3 7 .571 2.284 Miscellanw“ 8 4 12 .667 5. 336 vessels TOTAL 99 46 145 72.126 The Chi Square value derived from this test is 20.78, which is signifi- cant at the .005 level (20.3) with seven degrees of freedom. This is grounds for the rejection of the null hypothesis that "the ratio of 172 salvaged to nonsalvaged (total loss) vessels does not vary by more than chance from one vessel type to another." Hypothesis 16 - Summary and Results Because of the findings of the X2 test, hypothesis 16 is rejected; the proportion of salvaged to nonsalvaged vessels does vary from one type to another. In particular, schooners and schooner-barges are less frequently salvaged than wooden steamers. In contrast, steel steamers are more frequently salvaged in comparison to other types. One explanation for this lies with the relative cost of the vessels to their salvage costs. Schooners and schooner-barges were cost-efficient vessels that were regarded as expendable after a few hard years of service. But steel steamers were very expensive vessels with a higher salvage value and would be salvaged more frequently. Hypothesis 17 This hypothesis posits that there will be significant differences between salvaged and nonsalvaged vessels in regard to the port of origin (on the last voyage) of the respective vessels. In order for. this hypothesis to be rejected, it would have to be demonstrated that salvage is undertaken at higher rates on vessels from.aome particular ports as compared to others. Test for Hypothesis 17 Hypothesis 17 is not testable because of the differential recording of ports of origin for salvaged vessels. Only a small per- centage of salvaged vessels had this attribute recorded, so comparisons could not be made. Had this information been available, the test could 173 have been easily completed using a format similar to that for hypothesis 16. Despite this lack of data, the basic hypothesis posed here is still quite relevant and may prove interesting if applied to another body of data. Hypothesis 18 Hypothesis 18 states that there will be no significant differences between salvaged and nonsalvaged (total loss) vessels in regard to the month of their loss. Vessels lost in November, for example, should be salvaged at the same approximate rate as vessels lost in July. Test for Hypothesis 18 Using the data from Appendix B, each vessel was categorized by salvaged versus nonsalvaged and the month of loss. Frequency distri- butions were tabulated and a Kx2 Chi Square analysis completed. Table 60 presents these results. Table 60. Results Month Total Loss Salvage Total P PA January 0 0 0 0.000 0.000 February 0 0 O 0.000 0.000 March 0 O 0 0.000 0.000 April 1 1 2 .500 .500 May 6 5 11 .545 3.270 June 5 5 10 .500 2.500 July 5 2 7 .714 3.570 August 5 4 9 .556 2.780 September 22 4 26 .846 18.612 October 2? 10 3? .688 15.136 November 29 15 44 .659 19.111 December 3 0 3 1.000 3.000 174 The Chi Square value derived from this test is 8.023, which is not significant at the .05 level with 11 degrees of freedom (19.7). Even with the elimination of the January through March months when naviga- tion is closed, the test is still not significant with eight degrees of freedom (15.5) at the .05 level. The null hypothesis that "the ratio of salvage to nonsalvage vessels does not vary by more than chance by month of loss" is accepted. Hypothesis 18 - Summary and Results The acceptance of the null hypothesis results in the acceptance of hypothesis 18. There is a slight tendency for vessels lost in September to be salvaged at a lower rate, but this is certainly not statistically significant. Hypothesis 19 This hypothesis states that there will be no significant distri- butional differences between salvaged and nonsalvaged vessels for each commodity and for all shipwrecks lost on Lake Superior. That is, sal- vage should be uniform for all three industries and should be spatially distributed in the same manner for salvaged as for nonsalvaged vessels. In addition, it would be expected that there would be no significant difference between the distribution of all total losses (nonsalvaged). In order to reject this hypothesis, it would be necessary to demonstrate that all three industries have a nonrandomly patterned distribution and that these patterns are unequal in distribution. Like- *wise, both salvaged and nonsalvaged distributions for all three industries combined should be nonrandom and differentially patterned. 175 Test for Hypothesis 19 In order to test this hypothesis, it was necessary to divide vessels into six major categories. 1) Iron - total loss 2) Iron - salvaged 3) Grain - total loss 4) Grain - salvaged 5) Coal - total loss 6) Coal - salvaged In addition, two other categories--7) all commodities total loss, and 8) all commodities salvaged-were created from the six previous group- ings. These eight categories of vessels were then plotted onto the Poisson grid system and differential wreck frequencies were tabulated. These appear in Appendix C, Tables 19a-h. Using these frequencies, expected frequencies were calculated for each. The results are as follows. Table 61. Iron - total loss number of observed expected wrecks/cell frequencies frequencies 48 32.53 22.51 7.79 1.81 .31 .04 .005 '-‘O\OCD\IO\UIJ-\WN—O —-ooo-——-oo~w~o ~— 176 Table 62. Iron - salvaged number of observed expected wrecks/cell frequencies frequencies 0 52 44.23 1 8 17.03 2 2 3.28 3 2 .42 4 0 .04 5 0 .003 6 0 ---- 7 l ---- Table 63. Grain - total loss number of observed expected wrecks/cell frequencies frequencies 0 47 45.61 1 15 16.15 2 1 2.86 3 2 .34 Table 64. Grain - salvaged number of observed expected wrecks/cell frequencies frequencies 0 57 56.57 1 7 7.86 2 1 .55 Table 65. Coal - total loss number of observed expected wrecks/cell frequencies frequencies 0 51 47.07 1 9 15.20 2 3 2.46 3 2 .26 LN 177 Table 66. Coal - salvaged number of observed expected wrecks/cell frequencies frequencies 0 57 54.03 1 5 10.00 2 2 .93 3 1 .06 Table 67. All commodities - total loss number of observed expected wrecks/cell frequencies frequencies 0 34 16.52 1 16 22.63 2 7 15.50 3 1 7.08 4 1 2.42 5 0 .66 6 2 .15 7 2 .03 8 0 .005 9 0 .0008 10 0 ----- 11 1 ---- 12 0 ---- 13 0 14 0 ---- 15 1 ---- Table 68. All commodities - salvaged number of observed expected wrecks/cell frequencies frequencies 0 44 31.96 1 11 22.69 2 5 8.05 3 1 1.91 4 2 .34 5 O .05 6 1 .006 7 0 .001 8 1 --- 178 From these tables, the mean variance, coefficient of dispersion, and D statistic were calculated with Table 69 providing the summary results. Table 69. Results Comodity 32 32 CD D Ironrtotal loss .692 3.290 4.750 .23800 Ironrsalvage .385 1.129 2.932 .11954 Grainrtotal loss .354 .444 1.254 .02138 Grainrsalvage .139 .150 1.077 .00661 Coal-total loss .323 .495 1.533 .06123 Coal-salvage .185 .304 1.644 .04570 All vessels-total loss 1.137 7.128 5.230 .26892 All vessels-salvage .710 2.148 3.03 .18523 This table indicates that only three of the eight categories are signifi- cant at the .05 level (.16567) and that there are grounds for rejecting the null hypothesis, which states that "the distributions of vessels in each category are randomly distributed." Category 1 (Iron - total), category 7 (all vessels - total), and category 8 (all vessels - salvage) are the only groups found to have distributions that are nonrandom. Tables 19a-h, Appendix C indicate the frequency of wrecks found in each cell. For each category, some clustering can be noted, but it is significant only in the three categories. The zones of most fre- quent occurrence for each of these three categories are: 1. Iron - total: 56, 58, 59 2. All vessels - total: 36, 54, 56, 57, 58, 59 3. All vessels - salvage: 36, 54 179 Hypothesis 19 - Summary and Results Because nonrandom patterns were detected in three of the eight categories and because salvage was not uniform across all three industries under consideration, this hypothesis can be rejected. The iron industry was patterned in the distribution of wrecks that were not salvaged, while both general categories of vessels (salvage and none salvage) were likewise patterned. The grain and coal trades are both randomly patterned for both categories within each commodity. The results tend to indicate that salvage was randomly undertaken in regard to all three industries under evaluation. Hypothesis 20 According to this hypothesis, there will be no significant differences between salvaged and nonsalvaged vessels with regard to the type of loss that brought about the respective shipwreck. For example, vessels lost by grounding would be salvaged at the same rate and in the same pattern as the vessels lost by foundering. To reject this hypo- thesis, it must be demonstrated that particular types of loss are associated with higher rates of salvage than others. Test for Hypothesis 20 The four major types of loss--collision, fire, grounding and foundering-dwere divided into categories based on whether they were salvaged or not salvaged (total loss). The resulting eight combina- tions were then tested by the Kx2 Chi Square method, with results as seen in Table 70. 180 Table 70. Results Loss Type Total Loss Salvage Total P PA Collision 14 4 18 .778 10.892 Fire 4 3 7 .571 2.284 Grounding 39 34 73 .534 20.826 Foundering 35 3 38 .921 32.235 TOTAL 92 44 136 66.237 The Chi Square value for this test was 18.47, which is significant at the .005 level with three degrees of freedom (12.8). Based on this value, the null hypothesis that "the ratio of salvaged to nonsalvaged vessels does not vary by more than chance in relation to the type of vessel loss" was rejected. There is strong association between some types of vessel loss and the degree to which they were salvaged. Hypothesis 20 - Summary and Results Based on this test, hypothesis 20 is rejected because there are significant differences in the degree to which some loss types were salvaged. In particular, groundings were salvaged at a much higher rate than other loss types, while founderings were salvaged at a very low rate. Collisions were also not salvaged as often, and those vessels lost by fire were salvaged approximately equally. One explana- tion for these results lies with the high degree of effort and cost needed to salvage vessels from deep water as opposed to those lost in shallower water. Groundings are relatively easy to salvage as opposed to founderings and collisions, which often occur in deep water and are thus less likely to be raised. 181 Hypothesis 21 Hypothesis 21 proposes that there will be no significant differ- ences in regard to the frequency of salvage between vessels of the three commodities of iron, grain, and coal. For example, vessels of the iron industry would be expected to be salvaged at the same rates as vessels in either the grain or coal trade. Test for Hypothesis 21 Lake Superior shipwrecks were categorized by their respective industry affiliations and by their status as total losses or salvaged losses. The resulting six categories were used to tabulate frequencies from.data provided in.Appendix B, and the following table was created and analyzed using the Kx2 Chi Square test. Table 71. Results Commodity Total Loss ' Salvage Total P PA Iron 50 23 73 .685 34.250 Grain 26 9 35 .743 19.318 Coal 23 12 35 .657 15.111 TOTAL 99 44 143 68.679 The Chi Square value of .803 was not found to be significant at the .05 level with two degrees of freedom (5.99). Therefore, the null hypothesis that "the ratio of salvaged to nonsalvaged vessels does not vary by more than chance from.ene commodity category to another" is accepted. 182 Hypothesis 21 - Summary and Results Based on the results of the x2 test, hypothesis 21 was accepted because there are no differences in the frequency of salvage between the three commodities in question. There was a slight tendency for grain trade vessels to be salvaged at a lower rate than iron or coal (35 percent of the time compared with 46 percent and 52 percent) but this was not significant enough to statistically demonstrate an association. The rapid spoilage of grain after water contamination is a likely explanation for this tendency. Summary of Results This chapter focused on the testing of the hypotheses pre- sented in chapter 4. Of the 21 hypotheses presented, only 19 could be tested using the available data. Two hypotheses were untestable because of limitations in recorded data or because of small sample sizes not condusive to analysis. The 19 hypotheses that were tested have provided much information on the associations between the numerous variables under investigation. This summary section will outline the major variables that were tested, along with the general results of the analysis for each. Shipwreck Location This factor is the most important in understanding the spatial distribution of shipwrecks across Lake Superior. Seven hypotheses dealt directly with locational data-hypotheses 1, 2, 3, 6, 10, 13, 17, and 19. Of these, hypotheses 3 and 17 were untestable. The remaining hypotheses were tested and revealed that: 183 1. Shipwrecks in general are highly patterned in a nonrandom fashionr-Hypothesis 1. 2. Only vessels frmn the iron industry are nonrandomly patterned; coal and grain related vessels are not-Hypothesis 1. 3. Shipwrecks in general are nonrandomly patterned for the period 1880-1904, but are randomly patterned for the periods 1855-1879 and 1905-1929-Hypothesis 2. 4. Iron industry vessels from.Marquette are nonrandomly patterned, but vessels from.Duluth, Two Harbors, and Ashland are not- Hypothesis 6. 5. Vessels lost through grounding are nonrandomly patterned, while vessels lost by foundering, fire, and collision are randomly patterned--Hypothesis 10. 6. Vessels of specific types are all randomly patterned-- Hypothesis 13. 7. In general, salvage was spatially patterned in a nonrandom fashion. Commodity Affiliation Vessels of the iron, grain, and coal industries were hypothe- sized to have characteristics that set them apart from one another in relation to other variables. These relationships were explored by hypotheses 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 9, 14, 15, and 21. Of these, 1, 2 and 3 have been discussed as they relate to shipwreck location and will not be further elaborated on. The results of the other hypotheses are as follows: 1. For all three industries, there was a direct correlation between the length of the navigational season and the frequency of loss -Hypothesis 4. 2. Vessels affiliated with each commodity were affected differently by storms. Grain shipwrecks experienced 80 percent loss due to storms, coal 66 percent, and iron 48 percent-Hypothesis 7. 3. Some commodities lost higher frequencies of some vessel types than others. Iron lost more schooner-barges, grain.more wooden steamers and miscellaneous vessels, and coal more schooners and miscellaneous vessels-Hypothesis 7. 184 4. All commodities were equally affected by'groundings, founderings, fire, and collisionr-Hypothesis 9. 5. Iron industry vessels were lost at a lower rate relative to traffic, while grain.was lost at a higher rate in proportion to traffic than either iron or coal-Hypothesis 14. ‘6. There is no clear correlation between frequency of traffic from a given port and corresponding losses from that port- Hypothesis 15. 7. Vessels associated with each of the three commodities were salvaged at approximately the same rate-Hypothesis 21. Vessel Type The types of vessels lost on Lake Superior are interrelated with many other variables and constitute a major element for analysis in this study. Six hypotheses touch on vessel type in some manner-~7, 8, 12, 13, and 16. Of these, 7 and 13 have been discussed in the previous results as they relate to location and commodity affiliation. The results of testing for the others are as follows. 1. The chronological sequence of vessel types lost on Lake Superior correspond with documented historic sequences with a slight time lag indicated--Hypothesis 8. 2. An association was found between certain vessel types and corresponding specific types of loss. Schooner-barges were linked to foundering, and wooden steamers to collision/fire- Hypothesis 12. 3. Some vessel types were salvaged at a higher rate than other types. Schooners and schooner-barges were salvaged less, and steel steamers were salvaged at significantly higher rates- Hypothesis 16. Loss Type Four specific types of vessel loss apply to Lake Superior ship- wrecks--groundings, founderings, collision, and fire. The variable of loss type interrelates with numerous other variables and has been included in five hypothese-9, 10, 11, 12, and 20. While hypotheses 185 9, 10, and 12 have already been discussed in relation to previous variables, the results of 11 and 20 are as follows. 1. Loss types did not significantly vary over time-Hypothesis 11. 2. Differences were found between salvaged and nonsalvaged vessels . in regard to the type of losses that brought about respective shipwrecks. Groundings were salvaged most often, while collisions and founderings were salvaged least. Salvaged/Nonsalvaged The element of salvage is basic to the understanding of Type B transforms discussed in this study. Once a vessel is deposited on the lake bottom, a number of factors affect whether the vessel becomes part of the archaeological record. Salvage is one cultural variable that has a major effect on this process. Six hypotheses relate salvage to other shipwreck variables--16, 17, 18, 19, 20, and 21. Of these, only 18 has not been discussed elsewhere in this summary. The result of hypothesis 18 is: 1. There is no difference in salvage by the month in which vessels were lost-Hypothesis 18. Other Variables A number of other variables have been discussed in relation to the hypotheses presented in this chapter. Since all of these have been discussed in relation to the five more prominent variables (location, industry, vessel type, loss type, salvage), they will not be further elaborated upon. However, the following listing of variables with their associated hypotheses are provided as an easy cross reference to related attributes. 186 1. Port of origin - Hypotheses 6, 17 2. Date of loss - Hypotheses 8, 11, 18 3. Frequency of traffic - Hypotheses 14, 15 4. Frequency of storms - Hypothesis 5 5. Length of navigational season - Hypothesis 4 CHAPTER VII INTERPRETATION AND CONCLUSIONS Interpretation of Results The broader goal of this study is to investigate the formative process of the archaeological record as it applies to the question of the spatial representativeness of Lake Superior shipwrecks. Therefore, the interpretation of the results obtained through the process of hypothesis testing should likewise be directed toward these broader issues. The patterning of vessels noted in the previous chapter will be discussed as it relates to these questions, and a descriptive model will be generated to provide a detailed explanation for the nonrandom distributions that were found. The testing phase of this project resulted in the definition of three major spatial distributions of particular relevance: 1) iron industry vessels are spatially nonrandom in distribution; 2) within the iron industry, vessels from the port of Marquette are particularly nonrandomly patterned; and 3) salvage was undertaken in a spatially nonrandom.manner. Each of these results has an important bearing on the understanding of the mechanisms of deposition and decomposition that ultimately result in the formation of the archaeological record. The Type A and Type B transforms that are the active ingredients of this process will be discussed in the following sections. 187 188 Type A: Depositional Transforms The cultural and noncultural variables that result in the initial deposition of Great Lakes shipwrecks into the archaeological record are dealt with in Hypotheses 1 through 15. These hypotheses provide insights into the formative process of the Great Lakes ship- wreck record by testing the relationship between the variables respon- sible for vessel loss. The spatial patterns noted for the iron industry thus have their explanation at least in part from the results of the associations noted in chapter 6. To provide an explanation for the nonrandom patterns of iron-related vessels and the random.patterns of coal and grain, a brief review of the other hypotheses results is needed. The major questions to be answered in this regard are 1) Why are iron vessels spatially patterned while coal and grain are not? and 2) Why do iron vessels pattern along the Marquette-Sault Ste. Marie route and not along the other routes? The main differences between iron industry vessel distributions as opposed to grain and coal patterns is that the former are tightly clustered in two main areas-th *western tip of/the\Keweenaw Peninsula between Eagle River and Copper Harbor, and the gran/of western Whitefish Point east of Deer Park. Also, smaller clusters of wrecks occur at Marquette, Grand Island, and Au Sable Point (see Figure 13). Of the 75 total iron affiliated vessels lost between 1855 and 1920, only one was located on the north shore of Lake Superior. Five other vessels were lost on the south side of Isle Royale, four of which were later salvaged. Along the area from.Marquette to Sault Ste. Marie, a scatter of lost vessels accounted for a large proportion of the total vessels lost on the lake. 189 Figure 13. Ironrrelated shipwreck distributions 190 mujfluj mu..1 qu~<~m 28(1 mum :3 (m 02.2231 3(20; 02(80 . ><¢ sun’s:— . 923:9. ‘91 v t 15.530 0 ' I * 5%. seen . 191 In contrast, the pattern of grain losses was significantly different in many respects (see Figure 14). First, seven of 35 (20 percent) vessels were lost on the north shore, while several others were lost in open water at various points across the lake. Generally, grain affiliated vessels have a very dispersed pattern and appear to be scattered across a major portion of the lake, as opposed to iron vessels, which were primarily deposited close to shore (as groundings); that is, a higher proportion of grain vessels were lost in open water. Approximately the same frequency of grain vessels as iron industry vessels were lost along the southern Isle Royale coast and if grouped collectively, they constitute the only recognizable cluster of grain wrecks on the lake. As Figure 15 illustrates, the pattern of coal losses is some- where between that of iron and grain. While the pattern is dispersed in contrast to iron, small clusters of wrecks occur in several areas. The largest of these clusters is the area surrounding Marquette Harbor, with five losses of 35 total occurring in this locality. There is also a scattering of vessels between Marquette and Sault Ste. Marie, but no major clusters of wrecks occur at Au Sable or Whitefish Points as was the case for iron. Three coal vessels were lost along the north shore of the lake, no vessels were lost at Isle Royale, and only one was lost on the Keweenaw Peninsula north of the ship canal. Obviously, each commodity displays a significantly different pattern ranging from nonrandom/clustered for iron to random/clustered for coal to random/dispersed for grain. The Poisson tests performed upon these commodity distributions in Hypothesis 1 confirmed these patterns. 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