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EEEE. {EEEP EEPE EEEEEEE'PEEE EEE E PEEEE II‘E EEPEEPEEEE II'PE EPPPE EP E’EE IPPE IE'EEE E E PE IIIEIE IE! “EEEEE EIEIEIIEEIE EEEEE EEEIII ”E IEEEEEEEE IEIEEIIEI E IIIIIEEIIIEEII III I IIEEIIIIIE EE” III E ' E ELILIII' EIIIEEIIEEEE " EEIIE IIIEIE IIE PP__ A lllllllllllll/I ll/I{Ill/Ill/IIIHII/U/I/l/ll/I/Ull/Il/lf/l' THFW ‘ 3 1293 10451 5435 This is to certify that the dissertation entitled THE STRUCTURAL INFLUENCES ON CURRENT FERTILITY IN JAVA AND BALI The Effects of Socioeconomic Development and the Family Planning Program presented by Nasikun has been accepted towards fulfillment of the requirements for Ph . D. degree in Sociology J LIERARY Michigan State l University L_ fi RETURNING MATERIALS: IV153I_J Place in book drop to LIBRARIES remove this checkout from m your record. FINES will be charged if book is returned after the date stamped below. am:— EM SEPQOHIT ) ('";,,n‘. \l~‘ ‘ c__ ’k C 269‘ . 3 (a g wewx J~i THE STRUCTURAL INFLUENCES ON CURRENT FERTILITY IN JAVA AND BALI The Effects of Socioeconomic Development and the Family Planning Program By Nasikun A DISSERTATION Submitted to Michigan State University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY Department of Sociology 1982 ABSTRACT THE STRUCTURAL INFLUENCES ON CURRENT FERTILITY IN JAVA AND BALI The Effects of Socioeconomic Development and the Family Planning Program By Nasikun Previous studies have generally credited the surprisingly high proportion (24%) of currently married Indonesian women on modern con- traception to the national family planning program (see Hull, gt_§l,, 1977; Teachman, 1979; and Freedman, gt_§l,, 1981). Yet these studies have failed to identify what elements of the family planning program were most important in motivating women to use modern contraception. Nor have these investigations considered the simultaneous effects of socioeconomic development on women's reproductive behavior. The present study undertook a more comprehensive analysis of the effects of the provincial family planning program in Java-Bali, Indo- nesia, on women's contraceptive behavior and recent fertility, indepen- dently of the effects of socioeconomic development. The underlying hypothesis was that both socioeconomic development and family planning program supplies and services were necessary conditions for recent fertility decline. It was also hypothesized that both socioeconomic development and family planning program effort reduced the number of Nasikun live births between 1971-76 through motivating individual women to adopt modern contraception. Data were from the 1976 Indonesian Fertility Survey on wives who had borne at least one child and had been married for at least five years. Structural indicators of socioeconomic development and family planning program availability were obtained from various Central Bureau of Statistics' publications. The women in provinces with fewer eligible couples per family planning field worker and a more equitable distribution of resources were more likely to be currently using modern contraception and less likely to have borne children in 1971-76. As such, both the provincial family planning program and the equity with which socioeconomic resources are distributed have independently contributed to the recent fertility decline in Java-Bali. Therefore, government policies, which not only increase the availability and the accessibility of family planning program supplies and services but also enable a broader segment of the population to share the benefits of the most privileged strata, will result in a more widescale adoption of modern contraception and in further fertility decline. Dedicated to: My father, who died before he could see his dream come true; My mother, who taught me that when true wisdom is gained, we will not be ashamed to bow and to bend; My wife and children: Paryati, Sigit, Wahyu, Rina and Agung, who have all made this dissertation worthwhile. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This dissertation is a product of five years of confusing and frustrating, and yet exciting and productive work in the Department of Sociology at Michigan State University. For this I thank all the Faculty. I am indebted to the Rockefeller Foundation for providing the scholarship and the financial support for my family during our stay in the United States, without which the path of my academic development could have been quite different. I am also indebted to the Central Bureau of Statistics of the Republic of Indonesia for granting the permission to use the 1976 Indonesian Fertility Survey data tape for this study. My special appreciation is given to Dr. Sam Suharto, whose personal help has made such a permission possible. I wish to express my gratitude to my doctoral committee: Profes- sor Nan E. Johnson, Professor J. Allan Beegle, Professor Denton E. Morrison, and Professor Craig Harris, for their invaluable advice and criticisms. My special and sincere appreciation, however, is due to Professor Johnson, my academic advisor and the Chairperson of my dis- sertation committee, for her meticulous and perceptive criticisms and guidance throughout the preparation and the writing of this disserta- tion. Her unfailing, patient, and enthusiastic encouragement and support have made my years of confusion and frustration exciting and productive. In addition, I want also to thank Professor J. Allan Beegle for his early guidance and encouragement toward the first exploration of the present study. iii To Maria Olivia Mejorado, who typed both the first draft and the final copy of this dissertation most professionally, I would also like to express my thanks. Above all, I am deeply indebted to my family. First of all, my parents have contributed more than they realize, by charting the course and keeping me headed in the right direction during my early years. My wife and children, Paryati, Sigit, Wahyu, Rina and Agung, have travelled beside me on my academic journey. I am most grateful. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS V PAGE ABSTRACT ............................. iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ......................... v TABLE OF CONTENTS ......... , ................ vii LIST OF TABLES .......................... ix LIST OF MAP AND FIGURES ...................... xi CHAPTER I. INTRODUCTION ..................... 1 CHAPTER II. THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK AND ALTERNATIVE HYPOTHESES. . . 12 Theoretical Framework .................... 12 Alternative Hypotheses ................... 23 CHAPTER III. METHODOLOGY ..................... 26 Aggregate-Level Measures: The Independent Variables ..... 26 Individual-Level Measures: Intervening,mDependentj’and Control Variables ................... 34 Intervening Variable: Current Use of Modern Contraception. . 42 Dependent Variable: Current Fertility ........... 42 Control Variables ...................... 43 Statistical Technique .................... 45 CHAPTER IV. FINDINGS ....................... 54 CHAPTER V. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS ................ 64 FOOTNOTES ............................. 77 BIBLIOGRAPHY ........ ' ................... 79 APPENDIX A. Gini Concentration Ratio of Land Holding (1973) . . . 87 APPENDIX B. The Organization of the Indonesian Family Planning Activities (early 1975) ............. 88 APPENDIX C. APPENDIX D. APPENDIX E. APPENDIX F. PAGE Correlation Matrix .................. 89 Ridge Regression of Number of Children Born During the Last Five Years on the Independent and Control Variables by Different Values of Bias (K) .................... 90 Ridge Regression of Current Contraceptive Use on the Independent and Control Variables by Different Values of Bias (K) .......... 91 Ridge Regression of Number of Children Born During the Last Five Years on the Independent, Intervening, and Control Variables by Different Values of Bias (K) .......... 92 vi 10. LIST OF TABLES PAGE Number of Contraceptive Acceptors and Family Planning Clinic Hours per 1,000 Married Women Aged 15-44 Years Old in Six Provinces in Java and Bali in 1976 ......... 15 Measurement of Socioeconomic Development Variables by Province and Rural-Urban Residence ........... 31 Measurements of Family Planning Availability by Province. . . 35 Targets for Household Sample Sizes from Survey Domains. . . . 38 Number of Households and Respondents Selected and Inter- viewed in the 1976 Indonesian Fertility Survey by Province . . .‘ ..................... 40 Measures of Study Variables by Province ........... 44 Sample Weights for Various Provinces ............. 53 Stepwise Ridge Regression of Current Fertility Upon Control Variables, Socioeconomic Development, and Family Planning Program Availability .............. 56 Stepwise Ridge Regression of the Adoptionof Modern Contra- ception Upon Control Variables, Socioeconomic Develop- ment and Family Planning Program Availability ...... 58 Stepwise Regression of Current Fertility Upon Control Variables and the Adoption of Modern Contraceptive Use ........ . ................... 61 vii PAGE 11. Stepwise Ridge Regression of Current Fertility Upon Socio- economic Development, Family Planning Program Avail- ability, the Adoption of Modern Contraceptive Methods, and Control Variables ............. 63 viii LIST OF MAP AND FIGURES PAGE Map: Java-Bali: Six Major Target Provinces of Indonesian Figure 1. Figure 2. Figure 3. Family Planning Program ................ 3 Ridge Trace of Number of Children Born During the Last Five Years (1971-1976) Regressed on Control and Independent Variables ......... 49 Ridge Trace of Current Use of Modern Contraception Regressed on Control and Independent Variables ..................... 50 Ridge Trace of Number of Children Born During the Last Five Years (1971-1976) Regressed on Control, Independent, and Intervening Variables ..................... 51 ix CHAPTER I. INTRODUCTION The 1980 census of Indonesia was 147.5 million people (Central Bureau of Statistics, 1981: i), making Indonesia the fifth most popu- lous country in the world.1 About two-thirds of these people are crowded onto the small island of Java, which contains less than seven per cent of the total land area of the country. As such, Java is one of the most densely settled spots on earth, while the rest of Indonesia suffers from labor scarcity. The consequences of such an unbalanced distribution of population have been well summarized by Sumawinata (1962): "...if there was a tail which wagged a dog, Java is the tail, Indonesia the dog." The effects of crowded population, however, have not always been viewed unfavorably. Originally, the popular belief was that the abundance of land in the Outer Islands could absorb any excess popula- tion, that numbers may bring military power, and that family planning is immoral. Thus, the past Indonesian government chose "transmigra- tion" as a solution to overcrowding, as a means of providing employ- ment opportunities for Java's landless peasants, and as a method of furnishing other islands with the necessary labor force (Nitisastro, 1970: 129). Yet after the failure of the 1965 Communist coup d'etat and the emergence of the New Order in 1966, a family planning program was given high priority; and the National Family Planning Coordinating Board (B.K.K.B.N.) was created in 1969. Whereas ten provinces outside Java and Bali were added to the program after 1974, the initial target 1 regions were the six most densely settled provinces in Java and Bali, which are the setting of this study (see Map). With a very strong government commitment, the Indonesian family planning program soon became not only an economic and a social program but a political one as well. A large amount of both funds and adminis- trative effort have been invested in the program. The Indonesian government's family planning annual budgetary obligations have, for example, risen from $75,000 in fiscal year 1969 to $12.5 million in 1975 for a total during the period of $36 million (Population Refer- ence Bureau, 1976: 80). The program has also benefited from ever-increasing foreign assistance. Of the $48 million in foreign aid granted from 1969-1975, about half came from bilateral assistance: $23 million from USAID, $291,000 from the Japan International Cooperation Agency, $692,000 from the Netherlands Government (to support sociological and medical re- search and the development of a center for training nonmedical family planning staff), and a substantial amount of funds from the Norwegian Agency for International Development for the production of films on family planning. The amount of foreign support from multilateral sources was also great. The United Nations Fund for Population Activities (UNFPA), the International Development Association (IDA) and the World Bank Group signed a multilateral family planning assistance program of substantial size. The 1972-1977 program provided for a $13.2 million loan from IDA .Ememoea ccmccm—g zpwsmw cmwmmccccH mo mmocw>ogo “macaw gowns xwm “wrmmim>mn (>41 PmOO> \ \ a r L otoxoxoo> (>43 Admkzmo 7.. .44m <><5 \hoaloonllllf MEWJMJ, . 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.10, respectively) when the use of modern birth control entered the ridge regression. In other words, the adoption of modern contraception inter- preted the positive effect of the number of eligible couples per family- planning worker on current fertility. Thus, Hypothesis IV was supported only for a family-planning program variable. Table 63 11. Stepwise Ridge Regression of Current Fertility Upon Control Variables, Socio- economic Develooment, Family Planning Availability and the Adoption of Modern C0ntraceptive Methods. Variables Entered Multiple Standard Standard F 2 Regression Errors Ratios R s Coefficients I. Control Variables: 1. Marriage duration .1175 -.155 .020 44.48*** 2. Age2 .1395 -.139 .021 34.22m 3. Female labor force participation .1492 -.082 .013 32.29*** 4. Age .1547 -.l36 .021 31.89'** 5. Age at first marriage .1569 .052 .015 9.62*** 6. Number of times married .1579 -.O38 .013 6.61** 7. Literacy .1586 .023 .008 2.54 8. Living children five years ago 1590 .029 .015 2.66 9. Education .1591 -.009 .014 .32 10. Urban 1591 -.011 .017 32 II. Socioeconomic Development Variables: 11. PQLI .1660 -.037 .017 3.46* 12. Occupational heterogeneity .1663 .017 .019 .64 13. i of households with a monthly expenditure of over Rp.50,000 .1663 .003 .020 .01 III. Family Planning Program Variables: 14. Ever-married women aged 15-44 per F.P. clinic .1683 .052 .019 5.68** 15. Eligible couples per F.P. field worker .1686 .034 .019 2.42 16. Cost of F.P. per ever- married woman aged 15-44 .1689 .027 .018 1.76 IV. Intervening Variable: 17. Current use of modern contraception .1698 -.030 .013 4.23** N 8 4.161. *p<.10 **p<.05 .01 CHAPTER V SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS Demographers and sociologists disagree whether the fertility tran- sition in such developing countries as Indonesia is a direct response to the provision of modern contraception or to new socioeconomic cir- custances created by economic development. Davis (1963, 1967), Blake (1965), Hauser (1969), Tabbarah (1971), and Mamdani (1972), for example, have maintained that social and economic changes are the pri- mary determinants of fertility decline. Others have argued, on the contrary, that family planning programs can have a substantial indepen- dent effect in lowering fertility (Berelson, 1963; Bogue, 1967; Freed- man and Takeshita, 1969; Bogue and Tsui, 1969; Tsui and Bogue, 1978; Mauldin and Berelson, 1978; and Ravenholt and Chao, 1974). However, it is plausible that socioeconomic development can create rewards for low fertility even as family planning programs reduce the psychic and financial costs of contraception. Therefore, the “socioeconomic deve- lopment" and "family planning" hypotheses should be viewed as comple- mentary rather than as contradictory. The present study examined the hypothesis that socioeconomic development in the provinces of Java-Bali encouraged the adoption of modern contraception in the initial years of the family planning pro- gram and led to lower fertility in the 1971-76 period. Three types of socioeconomic-developmental effects were examined. First, we analyzed the impact that attaining a certain threshold of household purchasing power (Rp. 50,000 per month) would have on reproductive behavior. 64 65 Second, we estimated the fertility consequences of a more equitable distribution of social well-being (indexed by longevity and literacy). Third, we controlled the influence of occupational differentiation on contraception and, subsequently, on fertility. The simultaneous control of these three types of socioeconomic-developmental effects in a multivariate framework permitted us to determine which one best explained the recent Indonesian fertility decline. Furthermore, the measurement of these three phenomena at the provincial level allowed us to explore whether the province might be a socioeconomic context within which couples make fertility decisions. Data taken from the 1976 Indonesian Fertility Survey on wives who had borne at least one child and had been married at least five years and on structural economic indicators from various National Bureau of Statistics publications partially supported the socioeconomic develop- ment hypothesis. In particular, the women in those provinces with a more equitable distribution of resources affecting the physical quality of life were less likely to have borne children in 1971-76. While they were also more likely to have ever used modern contraception, modern birth control was not the principal path through which a more equitable distribution of resources led to lower fertility. Thus, two possible explanations can be offered for this unanticipated resu1t. First, with the exception of only West Java, the distribution of resources was substantially more equitable in urban areas than in rural ones) (Table 2). Also, traditional methods of contraception were more widely used in urban areas than in rural areas (Freedman gt_al,, 1981: lO-ll). Therefore, greater equity in the distribution of resources might have 66 increased the use of bgth_modern agg_traditional methods of contracep- tion. Moreover, the fairly high correlation between female labor force participation and PQLI (r = .10, Appendix C) and between female labor force participation and current fertility (r = -.15, Appendix C) sug- gested that greater equity in resource distribution might depress fertility by providing opportunities for women to work outside the house. For either or both of these two reasons, the use of modern contraception could not explain most of the inverse relationship between PQLI and current fertility. An important implication of this finding is that government policies which increase the longevity and literacy of broader segments of the provincial populations will pro- bably result in more widescale adoption of modern contraception and in further fertility decline. The present study further investigated the idea that independently of socioeconomic development, the family-planning program availability in the provinces of Java—Bali would enable couples to reduce their fertility through the adoption of modern contraception. Three aspects of the program availability were measured, each one corresponding to an era in the national family planning program. The effects of the Clinic Era, in which the main objective was the setting up of family-planning clinics to serve the population at risk of pregnancy, was tapped at the provincial level by the number of ever-married women aged 15-44 per such clinic. The influence of the Field Era, when clinics attempted to enlarge their effective service area through out-reach workers, was indexed by the average number of eligible couples per field worker in the province. Finally, the impact of the Contemporary Era, stressing 67 such field-worker incentives as payments for contraceptors recruited, was indirectly measured with the provincial cost of the family planning program per ever-married woman of childbearing age (15-44). Since Freedman gt_gl, (1981) found that the province was the best predictor for the current use of modern contraception, our study sought which aspect of family-planning program availability might account for such a strong provincial effect. We found that independently of socioeconomic development in the province, the widespread availability of family planning program clin- ics (measured by the ratio of ever-married women aged 15-44 to the number of clinics) and the smaller number of eligible couples per family-planning field worker were associated with significantly fewer children born to our study women between 1971-76. However, the former variable was not strongly associated with the adoption of modern contraception. Rather, it was largely through the accessibility of family planning program field workers that the family planning program influenced the current use of modern contraception by our study women. That is, study women living in provinces with smaller numbers of eli- gible couples per field worker were more likely to be using a modern method of birth control. It is noteworthy that in 1974, the role of the field workers was extended beyond the setting up of clinic appoint- ments to include the actual delivery of contraceptive supplies to the homes of eligible couples. Since trips to the clinics are in most cases made on foot and may thereby be difficult or inconvenient for most women, it is possible that such a household delivery of contra- ception may be the chief way in which field workers have reduced the 68 psychic and financial costs of using modern birth control. However, if this effect did not begin until 1974, our 1976 survey may have con- servatively estimated the influence of the field workers on current contraception and current fertility. The percentage of wives from each province who were currently using a modern method of contraception was larger in this study (see Table 6) than the percentage found by Freedman and his associates (1981: 19). For example, while Freedman gt_§l, found that 50% of cur- rently married women in Bali used modern birth control, 63% of current- ly married Balinese women in the present analysis were currently con- tracepting with the modern methods. This discrepancy requires explana- tion since the same survey data were used by Freedman et_§l, and by us. A likely explanation is the limitation of the present study to those Indonesian wives who had borne at least one child and who had been wed at least five years. The first limitation was imposed because child- lessness is strongly sanctioned in Indonesia; hence, childless wives would be less likely than others to want to use modern contraception. The second limitation was imposed because brides are under strong pressure to become pregnant. Thus, married women who have been wed at least five years are more likely to be receptive to modern contracep- tion than those who have been wed more recently. Probably for these reasons, a smaller amount of variance in current use of modern contra- ception was explained in our study (7.25%, see Table 9) than in Freed- man and his associates' study (12%). As suggested by Freedman gt_al, (1981: 18), this low explained variance probably reflects the moderate- ly high usage of modern contraception across all social strata. 69 We found the ratio of eligible couples to family-planning field workers in the province had a statistically significant effect on the current use of modern contraception, but this effect was not large (regression coefficient = -.O74, see Table 9). The statistically sig- nificant impact of the physical quality of life index (PQLI) on the current use of modern contraception was also small (regression coeffi- cient = .044, see Table 9). The modest sizes of these regression coefficients may have resulted in two ways. As noted earlier, a ridge regression procedure was employed because of strong multicollinearity among some of the aggregate variables. This statistical procedure added a constant of .3 to the diagonal elements of the (X'X) matrix to gain greater stability in the regression coefficients, but this prac- tice automatically deflated the magnitudes of those coefficients (com- pare first and sixth columns of Appendix E). The regression estimates for the family planning program and the socioeconomic variables were further minimized by entering them into the ridge regression after the control variables. Therefore, while the coefficients of field worker accessibility and of PQLI were modest, the conservative nature of the statistical analysis may have underestimated their strength. Sample limitations might also account for the small amount of explained variance in current fertility (17%) and for the modest in- fluence of modern contraception (regression coefficient = -.O3) upon it (see Table 11). The Indonesian family planning program began in 1969, after most of the study women had already borne several children. Hence, we chose to examine recent fertility, which would have been more susceptible to influence by the family planning program than would 7O lifetime fertility. However, the choice of the five-year interval 1971—76 in which to enumerate births may have been too brief to detect a strong impact of modern contraceptive methods. For example, Tabbarah (1971) calculated "natural" birth interval lengths (i.e., the average spacing between live births for women who do not conscious- ly try to regulate their pregnancies) and found it to vary between 3.5 - 7 years for several countries in South and Southeast Asia. He noted that malnutrition leads to subfecundity and fetal wastage. In addition, malaria, venereal disease, and other infections so common to developing countries lead to spontaneous abortions and to gynecological infections. For these reasons, Tabbarah concluded that natural birth- spacing is lggggr_in North Africa and Asia than in North America and Western Europe. While the analysis of birthspacing is beyond the scope of the present study, our choice of a five-year historical period (1971-76) in which to gauge the early effect of the national family- planning program on fertility may have afforded a conservative estima- tion of that effect, if the birth-interval lengths of both contracep- ting and noncontracepting women were close to (or in excess of) five years. Another possible reason for the relatively weak effect of current use of modern contraception on current fertility could have been errors in measuring contraceptive use. As Mudijanto Purbangkoro (1978: 67-8) has noted, political and administrative pressure in the implementation of the family planning program in Indonesia might have induced a sub- stantial proportion of the respondents to report falsely that they were currently using a modern contraceptive method. Thus, misreporting 71 may have weakened the relationship observed between current method of contraception and current fertility by disturbing the covariation between these two factors. Another factor which may have biased the measurement of fertility during the five years preceding the 1976 survey was the inability of many women to recall their own dates of birth. This problem of date recall is particularly severe among nonliterate women and may be com- pounded by the use of at least two calendars (the lunar and the Julian) in Java and Bali. As such, 77.8% of the birthdates of all respondents in the survey had to be imputed. Birthdate misreporting typically inflates the number of women represented as aged 15-49 years (Brass and Coale, 1968: 101). In addition, the age at marriage in Indonesia is frequently below the age at marital consummation, since many marriages are still arranged. Hence, it is likely that the 1976 survey of ever-married women below age 50 overstated the number of currently married women at the beginning and the end of the reproduc- tive span. Brass and Coale (1968: 102) argued that the "wrong'I inclu- sion of women at the lower and upper ends of the reproductive age span deflates measures of current fertility. This deflation, likely in our survey data, probably biased the observed effect of modern contracep- tion on current fertility downward. For this reason, the effects of family planning field workers on reproductive behavior in Indonesia merit closer attention in future research. These findings have several important theoretical and policy implications. First, they support the additive perspective of fertil- ity decline: that while socioeconomic development is an important 72 determinant of fertility decline, family planning programs may also have an independent effect on fertility. At a theoretical level, they prove the lively "population-deve10pment controversy" between the Mal- thusians and the deve10pmentalists to be superficial. At the policy level, these results suggest that the deve10pment plan likely to have the greatest effect on fertility reduction would be one combining socioeconomic development with a family planning program. The results of the present study suggest that an important socio- economic development thrust would be to extend the social benefits of the society to a larger segment of the population. One way to accom- plish this aim might be to implement a far stronger employment-oriented development policy which will guarantee the provision of income-gener- ating employment opportunities to the poor segment of the population, and thereby to increase their standard of living. Since the produc- tion of labor-intensive "wage-goods" is the principal route through which the employment of and the standard of living of the poor will increase (Mellor, 1975, 1976; and Ridker, 1972), future public invest- ments need to be allocated to favor these sectors. Since the most important wage-goods are foods, an employment-oriented strategy of development needs to place particular emphasis on the agricultural sector. To do so, much of future expansion in public investments must be allocated to the provision of infrastructure in rural areas: better irrigation facilities, especially for smaller farmers, more roads, storage, credit and marketing facilities, better health and educational facilities and so on. Such a program would necessitate an expanded rural works program which will have to be dovetailed with preferences 73 and the seasonal availabilities of labor. A number of complementary institutional changes, including land reform and the development of small farm cooperatives, may also be necessary to increase the politi- cal and the purchasing power of the poor. All these measures have already been implemented to some extent. Most notable are: the land reform of the 19605, the agricultural development campaign (BIMAS) to provide massive inputs (credit, seeds, fertilizer, etc.) needed to boost the production of agricultural wage-goods; the initiation of regency, subdistrict and village labor-intensive projects to build roads, irrigation and marketing facilities; increased allocations of rural health and educational facilities; and the establishment of village cooperative units (Hansen, 1981). Thus, the prospects for maximizing the employment opportunities for the poor will depend heavily upon the improvements of all those programs. A systematic effort to orient the existing technological policy toward the domestic deve10pment of and the international transfer of appr0priate, labor-intensive technologies is also called for. At the economic level, such a policy requires a constant effort to correct the existing factor-price distortions and other biases that favor the use of capital-intensive technologies (Ridker, 1972: 69. At the socio- political level, a great effort is also needed to develop constantly the "vital nexus" (Goulet, 1977) which links the society's value op- tions (partly embodied in the state's Five Principles, Pancasila) to the preferred development strategy and to the associated criteria for choosing the most appropriate technologies for its implementation. 74 A more specific and direct policy to extend the benefits of the society that will lead to lower fertility might be to reduce infant mortality and to increase the life expectancy at age one (see compo- nents of PQLI in Chapter III) by bringing the provision of health facilities closer to the rural poor. Because Indonesia, with about one doctor per 21,000 people, has one of the worst shortages of physicians in Asia (Hull, gt_gl,, 1977: 8), the mortality of that society might be reduced through the training of more paramedics. These personnel could make house calls, as the family-planning field workers now do, to reduce the financial and psychic costs of general medical care. It is noteworthy that this health-policy approach has been credited with a significant decline in mortality in the People's Republic of China and in Sri Lanka (Blair, 1976; Sidel and Sidel, 1973; and Rich, 1973). Another more direct way of enabling a broader segment of the popu- lation to share the benefits of the most privileged strata would be to increase the literacy of poor women through the expansion of public education. For example, rather than spending republican funds on building new colleges or universities, these monies might be better invested in building new primary schools. It is notew0rthy that the most striking contrast in the relationship observed between female edu- cation and fertility in Chile, Rio de Janeiro, Buenos Aires, and Hungary was that between women with no education at all and those with a primary school education (Rich, 1973: 28). That is, women who had completed primary school averaged about two children fewer than those who has not. Moreover, one reason why South Korea has lower fertility than Brazil is probably that the education system in South Korea has 75 been accessible to a much wider segment of the total population (Rich, 1973: 28). It is therefore likely that better planning and implemen- tation of the existing 50 Inpres program to build primary schools throughout rural and urban areas of Java-Bali would produce a signifi- cant fertility reduction in the years to come. A further policy implication is that boosting the ratio of the field workers to eligible couples will likely increase the usage of modern family-planning methods. These field workers should be primari- ly recruited from the older, married, less-educated female population, since field workers with these characteristics were found to be more successful in motivating a visit to family planning clinics and an adoption of modern contraceptive methods (Repetto, 1977: 20). Rogers (1973) held that field workers who are homophilous to their target population are more likely to influence their clientele to adopt modern contraception. However, since most adopters in Indonesia have heretofore been older, higher-parity women, more research is needed to find whether a significant fraction of young (<25 years), low-parity cohorts of wives in Indonesia can be motivated to contracept by field workers with similar characteristics or whether the persuasion of older, high-parity field workers would be more effective. Finally, the present study has other important implications for future sociological and demographic research in Indonesia. Documentary data, particularly those collected at the provincial and other adminis- trative levels, are seldom used in social-scientific work in Indonesia. However, the significance of the Physical Quality of Life Index, of the ratio of women aged 15-44 to family planning clinics, and of the ratio 76 of eligible couples to family planning field workers, all measured at the provincial level, demonstrates the importance of taking aggregate- level effects into account. However, aggregate-level predictor vari- ables are usually highly intercorrelated, and the resultant multi- collinearity often discourages their use in social research. Yet the present study demonstrates that ridge regression is an appropriate statistical tool for disentangling the effects of highly intercorrelat- ed predictors on a dependent variable. FOOTNOTES 1The other four largest countries in the world are the People's Republic of China, the Republic of India, the Union of Soviet Social- ist Republics, and the United States, with their estimated 1980 population sizes of 975, 675.2, 266, and 222.5 million people, res- pectively (Population Reference Bureau, 1980). 2For a more detailed historical account of the Indonesian family plan- ning program, see Lida C.L. Zuidberg (ed.), 1978; particularly Section 2 and Section 7. For its organizational structure, see Appendix B of this report. 3Off-farm employment is a necessary pre-requisite for increased stan— dard of living for the poor. While agricultural development is a pre- condition for the success of a national development, the former necessitates the expansion of employment opportunities outside agri- culture to accomodate excess rural population which usually accompa- nies an increase in agricultural productivity. 4Some scholars believe that during the nineteenth century Dutch colonialism, Java experienced some kind of "population explosion" due either to the widespread improvement in health conditions and rapid increases in the standard of living of its population (see, Nitisastro, 1970: 42)or to the population-stimulating mutualistic relationship between the expansion of sugar plantation and wet-rice cultivation throughout the realization of the so-called "Culture System" of 1830- 1870 (Geertz, 1966: 52-82). On the basis of a detailed study of the colonial data references and official colonial reports, however, Widjojo Nitisastro (1970: 42 and 235-36) concludes that there is no evidence to support such contentions. He believed that the notion of population explosion in Java during the nineteenth century is based on questionable evidence that endeavors to show the blessings of a colonial regime by exaggerating those factors favorable to population growth. 5His estimated threshold for Latin American countries is $300 per capita per annum. A comparable estimate is also given by Clive Bell 1976 . 6A recent study of rural families residing in five municipalities of Iloilo Province, Philippines, however, shows that there may be a fertility-reduction threshold of about $27 of household income per capita in the Philippines (see, Nelson, 1981: 9). 77 78 7The proposition that the importance of extended kinship systems declines in more advanced societies can in fact be traced back to the time of Sir'Henry Maine over a century ago (Blumer, 1963). It is still widely accepted by many scholars today. Anthropologist Julian Steward (1960), for example, writes that internal specialization, social classes, and state institutions come to supersede kinship groups, while Leslie White (1959) goes even further to suggest that the transformation from primitive to civil society entails "the loss of kinship". 8The latter relates directly to the so-called "social capillarity thesis", about which much has been written in demographic literature (see, for instance, United Nations, 1953, and Thompson and Lewis, 1965). As summarized in the United Nations report, the thesis is roughly as follows: "Just as a column of liquid must be thin in order to rise under the force of capillarity, so also must a family be small to rise in the social scale...The effect of social mobility on fertil- ity appears to be attributed in general to the fact that rearing children absorbs money, time, and effort which could otherwise be used to rise in the social scale. Social mobility is thus more feasible with one)or two children than with a larger number" (United Nations, 1953: 79 . 9Indeed, Teachman presented an extensive account of the recent trend in Indonesia's socioeconomic development, but he did so outside his PROJTARG strategy for analyzing the effect of contraceptive use on fertility, and therefore is not convincing. 10Blau distinguishes two forms of structural-differentiation: hetero- geneity and inequality. The first refers to the distribution of a population among groups in terms of a nominal parameter without implying a status hierarchy, and the second to the status distribution in terms of a graduated parameter implying the existence of a status hierarchy. 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Institute of Cultural and Social Studies and Ge Nabrink and Sons. Amsterdam, The Netherlands. APPENDICES 87 APPENDIX A. Gini Concentration Ratio of Land Holding (1973). PROVINCES GINI RATIO 1. Jakarta .527 2. West Java .537 3. Central Java .529 4. Yogyakarta . .528 5. East Java .530 6. Bali .507 Source: Table 43, Central Bureau of Statistics, 1978. .32. .Hfiluw .3335 ...u 2.: so...» 326958. £38 r 5...... .82.... 22.33.. 18.523 ....» .3 3:1: 1.2.25.3... QZ-SUU .llufioos £150: .i 62.8; 515. 52.53:»...— .s.... —.. 1 5:». fi£> "owl-5 .6 ...... ......o: .r IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII l I II In j I 0' I II II- 1 as...» l . _ 3.5.3.6 .23.. .... 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Na .Np moo. opo. omo. owo. omo. mmo. coo. oNo. coo. ee-mp vmom case: ow.ggcs-gm>w gm: .o.u we umou .o— moo. moo. «no. omo. omo. Koo. «mo. omo. mpo. .wxgoz u_w_. .o.o .mo mwpoaou mpg—o.pu .m— omo. moo. ovo. moo. omo. .Ko. Poo. moo. N... u.=.pu .a.u Lo: vc-m— vmom nose: cm...m§-gm>u .e— «No. mmo. .No. omo. o_o. m_o. m_o. m_o. coo. xu.w:¢oogouwc .eco.uco:uoc .m— omo.- omo.- omo.- omo.- omo.- .mo.- omo.- pmo.- emo. ..co .N. moo. moo. moo. woo. poo. .oo.- ~oo.- «oo.- moo.- ooo.om .am go>o .o wgaupocmoxm ....cos a z..: mu.o;m.=0g .o a ... m.o.- ooo.- .oo.- moo.- ooo.- ooo.- ooo.- ooo.- owo.- co.uoo -.uwugmo mega» Lonop w_aswu .op xmo.- emo.- mmo.- moo.- .No.- omo.- omo.- o.o.- o_o.- xuagoupo .o «oo.- moo.- ooo.- ..o.- o—o.- mmo.- emo.- omo.- oNo.- :oFuouzom .m Koo. ooo. ooo. o—o. o_o. o_o. opo. o_o. mwo. gong: .N mmo.- coo. m_o. mNo. oeo. Foo. Nuo. oko. .oo. com mgcw» m>_» :w.o..zu ocm>vo .o o«... Ne..- om..- ¢m_.- om..- No..- «R... a“..- mmN.- :o_um.=v momvgng. .m mmo. «co. «co. .mo. mmo. ooo. woo. moo. moo. ooa...ms um... um mo< .e mec.- peo.- moo.- Kmo.- moo.- cmo.- wmo.- -o.- mmo.- to...ms was.» uc gmaaoz .m mm..- mm..- on..- on..- oo..- .c..- .e..- on..- m_~.- ~uo< .N .m..- mm..- .m... mm..- on..- an..- Ce... 9...- --- ma< .. oo.. oo. oo. om. om. o_. co. oo. oo. A x V w o o < > m < _ o omzuhzw muoo .... m... .o mwa..> .cwgm.._o on mc.acmgm> pogucoo vow .cmo:wooc=_ mg. no mgcm> o>.. .mm. oz. o:..:o :Loo cmgo_.go .o Loossz .o cowmmmgooz woo.z .o x_ozmao< 91 _nc. coo. ace. mmc. axe. Nac. mac. mac. xcp. mm .Np é. .... ...... S. E. ...... a..- s..- .2; ......E-....W....w. a...” ”News .2 oeo.- ..o.- N.o.- ..c.- ..o.- .mo.- .oo.- .ao.- oN~.- .... Lea mmflmumwxwwnwww.u .m. omo.- .No.- o_o.- o_o.- N_o.- ooo.- ooo.- moo. ~c_. u.:._u .o.. .mo ec-mp ammo cmeoz om.ggos-gm>m .c. Nso.- ooo.- moo.- ooo.- o...- mm..- om..- pm..- e—~.- a..ocooogmumg poco_uco:uuo .m— _mo. svo. moo. «co. Neo. omo. omo. omo. mm_. ..oa .m— o.o.- .oo. Koo. ~.o. .mo. ooo. ~e_. oo.. omm. ooo.om .oa .m>o ho m.:..ucooxm ....cos a ...: .u.ozm.=og .o u ... emo. omo. omo. “No. “No. omo. omo. .mo. mmo. co..ao -.u_u.mo muse. Lona. o—oEo. .o— omo.- “oo.- “oo.- mmo.- emo.- .mo.- omo.- o~o.- o~o.- xuogo._. .o Nko. ooo. moo. Koo. mop. ~o_. o... N... o... co..uu=oo .o mwo. mmo. omo. moo. woo. woo. ~m_. _o_. oov. smog: .N ~o.. oo.. oo.. oo.. mop. mom. NNN. omm. .ew. ooc mgmmx m>.. :m.u..gu o=_>_. .o ~mo.- omo.- mmo.- o~o.- ooo.- ooo.- mmo.- mmo.- omo. copuagau ooo...mz .m oeo. mco. oeo. oco. mmo. .oo. ooo. muo. oo.. moo...ae um... um uo< .e omo.- mmo.- emo.- .mo.- Nmo.- omo.- m_o.- ..o.- moo. ow.ggms mme_. .o Lassaz .m omo.- o~o.- oco.- mvo.- moo.- moo.- mmo.- moo.- o_~.- Nwo< .N .No.- ooo.- Nmo.- omo.- meo.- «oo.- ooo.- ooo.- --- mo< .— oo._ om. ov. on. om. o.. oo. oo. oo. o....z. m..m<...> . x o w = . < > m < _ m .Axv mc_o .o mw=_o> .cmgmom_o xo mmpoe.gc> —oL.cco one .cwcccoco:_ as. co 0.: o>_.omumgucco ucmggou .o co.mmm.oom moowm .u x.ozwoa< 92 II. 'Il'illll‘l -1 II'III all! till-I' «I'll ‘. (I. III ..II a... N... .... o... .... .... .Nc.- .Nc.- «Nc.- cNo.- mm..- .mo.- coo. ..o. .No. .Nc. ..o. .mo. ..c. ..o. Nmo. ..c. ..o. ..o. xmo. ..o. N.o. N... a... .No. .Nc. CNo. ..o. ..o. m... ..o. x.o.- mm..- m.c.- .mo.- mmo.- one.- .co. .co. Noe. moo. Noe. Noe. M.C.- m.... ..o.. Nwo.- .No.- mNo.- oNc.- .No.- .No.- MN..- NNo.- .No.- mac. moo.- ooo.- ooc.- ..o.- N.o.- Nco. o.o. c.o. ..o. N.c. ..o. .Nc.- .oo. ..o. oNo. m... coo. _._.- m._.- .m..- mm..- co..- a...- emc. ..o. N.o. Nmo. .... Noe. ..o.- ..o.- o.o.- NNo.- mmo.- .No.- mm..- em..- N...- am..- ....- ....- ....- .m..- ....- ....- on..- ....- oo._ em. 9.. ON. oN. 9.. . x o m o . < > m < . . a... .o.. oo.. N. .m. c~c.- Foo.- (oo.- cowuooumgucou :Looce .o my: .ccggoo .N. oco. mNo. Noo. ec-m_ omen case: omwggma-gw>o Lao .o.. be umcu .m— omo. emo. moo. suggest—m.. .o.. Lmo mmpooou o—nwa.pu .m— _oo. moo. mop. u.=_—u .o.. Leo ce-mp coon :oEo: vm_gng-gm>u .e. ooo. ooo. mNo. >..w:coogmuoz paco.umo:uuo .m. emo.- omo.- ooo. ..co .m. moo. coo. o—o. ooo.om .oz .m>o mo ego._v:moxm ....coa . ...: .u.o;o.=og .o . ... moo.- moo.- moo.- :o_umo -_u_ugmo mega. goau— w—msmu .o. .No.- oNo.- o~o.- Auogwuwo .o o~o.- mmo.- vwo.- :o_umu:vu .m m_o. o_o. woo. cons: .N .oo. moo. No.. so. mg... m>.. =m.u..gu a=.>.. .. mN_.- oN_.- .mN.- cowumgou ooa_s.cz .m moo. ooo. Nmo. mom.g.ms um... um wo< .c oNo.- Nmo.- mmo.- um...ma mus.» .o Loasoz .m cc..- Ne..- NNN.- Nmo< .N me... me..- --- ¢o< .. oo. co. oo. cummhzm muom<_m<> mc_ncwgc> Poguccu vow .o:_:w>gm.:_.u:mc:mowoc_ mg. no mgcm> m>_. ammo «so o:..=o :Lom cwgupwzu kc .mnsoz .c commmosumz woumm ...o m... .o ..s... .=m.m...o .3 .u x_ozuoa< nIcnxan 519?: UNIV. LIBRARIES 1|WW”WWW"WI||H|1IINIIIHH|1WWI 31293104515485