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THESlS

 

This is to certify that the

dissertation entitled

ABSTRACT

FACTORS RELATED TO MIGRATION PLANS
AMONG MALE HIGH SCHOOL STUDENTS
IN A RURAL AREA OF LIBYA
presented by

Ramadan Senussi Bel-Hag

has been accepted towards fulfillment
of the requirements for

Ph.D. degree in Socioloqy

a

1‘,“

Major professo

Date February 24, 1982

 

MS U is an Affirmative Action/Equal Opportunity Institution 0-12771

 

2‘ 41111111111111111111 1111111111

3 1 93 10461 3314

 

 

IVIESI.) RETURNING MATERIALS:
Place in book drop to

LIBRARIES remove this checkout from

Ali-ISIIII. your record. FINES will

 

 

 

be charged if book is
returned after the date
stamped below. .

 

 

FACTORS RELATED TO MIGRATION PLANS
AMONG MALE HIGH SCHOOL STUDENTS
IN A RURAL AREA OF LIBYA

By

Ramadan Senussi Bel-Hag

A DISSERTATION

Submitted to
Michigan State University
in partial fulfillment of the requirements
for the degree of

DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY

Department of Sociology

1982

ABSTRACT
FACTORS RELATED TO MIGRATION PLANS

AMONG MALE HIGH SCHOOL STUDENTS
IN A RURAL AREA OF LIBYA

By

Ramadan Senussi Bel-Hag

Despite the widespread recognition of rural-urban migration
as a problem in most developing countries, research has tended to
follow the same approach of that of the developed nations, namely,
the study of migration from demographic, economic and ecological
points of view. Thus, most of the research has emphasized the
role of "push" and "pull" factors, and demonstrated the dominance
of economic and social forces as causes of migration. On the
other hand, subjective factors related to migration have not been
highlighted in research, and very little has been done on the atti-
tudes associated with migration.

This study, therefore, is an attempt to examine some of the

.__“_\‘§‘_fi___~____f”fwfluéfl
‘attitudinal factors involved in the decis

 

f... “—4— ,_..

ion making process as

’__fl‘_fl_fl___,,_wm_h,___ fie-,sflfis_h_ h.__ ____-7-
related to migration intention on the part of young people from
“,.,.—a—w—-'* -_fl_mh_ m“_nnh *7_
a rural area in Libya. This area has suffered high rates of out-
‘\\a____,.,r~~er' fl.
migration for the last twenty years. Given the fact that the

 

-__,_.—
“fin-F’—

 

 

country is going through a transition from traditional to a
modernized society resulting in the need for professional, skilled

and highly trained personnel, many young people have been stimulated

Ramadan Senussi Bel-Hag

to seek higher education and to aspire to social mobility. There-

 

fore, the migration decision is viewed from the individual's point
E“_____“_,__ —___..___

 

'gj;yiew,__Four variables are examined in predicting and explaining

the migration plans of rural adolescents who have not yet selected a ,
( ,,-e
i.) . “it (\ A f j
a permanent occugation and a permanent place of residence. These \1“ Ti/ (12:51
v» ’ ‘ If: ‘-; |\_\ \‘r'

variables are: (l) educational and occupational aspirations; (2) fiflpibtta, a; A

. I! \ f _‘
up» (Iv-3

community satisfactions; (3) family obligations; and (4) community yfi,er<uJ"
\" w _‘ __ ‘ ,-

_-—-—._1 _...'.,. Fla—L -

 

 

 

 

evaluation. ’Thtrnuavalwcr\

I” ’ \‘.\ r I ”'i . ' ‘1
‘~--———--*‘" VLMLUJLL _( . LU 3.)

Examination of previous research suggests that these four \9{:\ceuaue a}

3

variables are closely related to migration plans. In addition to,

 

 

these findings, however, it was expected: (l) that the instrumen:

 

tal aspirations (educational and occupational aspirations in par-

M

 

 

 

 

 

_4—.-__.__..___-_ ‘____

 

ticular) would be more highly correlated with migration plans than

‘-

 

any_of the other variables; (2) that low community satisfactions
and negative evaluation of the community social provisions would
lead to plans to migrate irrespective of whether educational and
occupational aspirations could be achieved locally; and (3) that
high levels of family obligations would lead to plans to remain in
the home community irrespective of whether educational and occupa-
tional aSpirations could be fulfilled locally.

It is also expected that these variables are structured by
the social position of the respondent in the community. That posi-
tion is assumed to be influenced by: (l) cultural orientation of
the respondent's family; (2) social status of the respondent's

family; and finally (3) the respondent's birth order.

Ramadan Senussi Bel-Hag

Data for this study were obtained from 503 male high school
students through self-administered questionnaires. The students
resided in the Nafusa Mountain area of Libya. Informants at this
stage of the life cycle are involved in occupational and migration
decision-making.

Empirical findings from this research clearly support most
of the hypotheses. Contrary to expectation, however, low regard
for community relationships and social provisions as well as high
family obligations did not counteract the effects of educational
and occupational aspirations in regard to migration. In addition,
the hypothesis concerning the respondent's birth order was not

supported.

DEDICATION

TO THE SOUL OF MY FATHER
TO MY MOTHER
T0 BASHIR, NASSER AND SUAD

whose AdC/Léfit'eu and patience
made the compietion 06 my
gnaduate étudy poa¢ib£e.

ii

ACKNOWLEDGMENT

I wish to express sincere appreciation to the members of my
Guidance Committee for their interest and constructive criticism.
These members were Professors J. Allan Beegle, Chairperson, Harry
K. Schwarzweller, Christopher Vanderpool and Frank A. Fear.

A special acknowledgment of deep appreciation and gratitude
must be extended to Dr. Beegle and Dr. Merwyn Nelson. At no time
during the preparation of this research were they too busy to pro-
vide help for my problems. Without the most generous offering of
their valuable time and suggestions, this thesis could never have
been completed.

Thanks is due to my nieces and nephews, particularly, Fathi,
Adel and Lutfi, also my cousin Sadekh who helped in the data col-
lection. Appreciation is extended to Ms. Catherine Moehring for
typing the different drafts of this manuscript.

Lastly, special appreciation and gratitude is expressed to
my immediate family and relatives, particularly my uncles Abdul
Razak and El Mehdi whose symbolic support and encouragement have
largely contributed to the completion of my graduate school. I
am forever grateful to my family who was deprived of my attention
for six long years. May Allah give mercy and love for all the

people who helped me in all these years.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Chapter Page
I. SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AS RELATED TO

MIGRATION IN LIBYA: A HISTORICAL BACKGROUND . . . . 1
INTRODUCTION ................... l

The Period Following the Oil Discovery:
196l-1969 .................. 6

The First Five-Year Social and Economic
Development Plan ............... 7
The Impact of Oil on the Economy ........ lO
Socio-Economic Development and Migration . . . . l3

The Post 1969 September lst Revolution Period. . l5
New Prospects on the Path of Social and

Economic Development ............. l8
II. THE RESEARCH PROBLEM ................ 30
INTRODUCTION ...................
The Scope of the Study ............. 95W
Theoretical Framework and Relevant Literature. . diféijsk’ %Cfio)%
The Major Independent Variables and Their
Relationship to Migration ..........
Definition of Major Variables and Hypotheses
to be Tested ................. 62
III. RESEARCH METHODS AND PROCEDURES .......... 67
Description of Jabal Nafusah Area ....... 67
Population Structure ............. 71
The Test Population ....... ,_. . . .¢J_J_ _.jfli_

"u‘.—_— .._.....__.__L. —--—~

Interview1_g Respondents Lfl;_;;.u.l-u._.n. .4- . m “76
KPFEEEHEFES for Operationalizing Main Variables . 78
Method of Analysis ............... 90

 

IV. HYPOTHESIS TESTING AND RESULTS ........... 92

~£ducatinnal_A§pirations and Migration Plans . . “_92 J
1ration5'andTMTgrat1on Plans. . 94

Community Satisfact1on‘and—Migration'PianS" . "'95*

iv

Chapter

IV. (Continued) Page
Community Evaluation and Migration Plans . . . . 97
Family Obligations and Migration Plans ..... 98 x
The Relative Predictiveness of the Instrumental
and Non-Instrumental Variables ........ 99
Structural Factors Influencing the Dependent
and Independent Variables ........... l24
V. SUMMARY OF FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS ........ l37
ar of Results ............... 5 138_
Structural Factors n uencing the Dependent
and Independent Va riapfes . . M." ....... l42,
Cofifilggjgn§::. . 1‘. . . . . . . . . g ..... 145
Limitations 6thhe”StUdy ............ 152
Policy Implications .............. l54
APPENDIX A ........................ 156
APPENDIX B ........................ l75
APPENDIX C ........................ l8l
LIST OF REFERENCES .................... l87

acumen-taco

)0.

ll.

12.

13.

14.

15.

16.

LIST OF TABLES

Page
The first five-year social and economic development
plan (l963-1968) .................... 8
Libya's Oil Revenue and its contribution to the
total revenue ..................... l2
Government expenditures 1963-64 to l970-7l ....... l7
Allocation for the l973-75 development plan ...... 20
Development appropriations in Libyan dinars ...... Zl

l976-80 development plan and expenditures for 1978 . . . 23
School enrollment between l96l-62 and l977-78 ...... 27

Projections of industrial compositions of labour
force in Libya: l980-2000 ............... 28

Educational enrollment for Gharian province
1964-1973 ....................... 73

Net and gross migration for the ten provinces of
Libya, 1964-l973 .................... 74

Volume and direction of migration out of Gharian
province, l964-l973 .................. 74

The relationship between educational aspirations
and migration plans .................. 93

The relationship between occupational aspirations
and migration plans .................. 94

Relationship between community satisfaction and
migration plans .................... 96

The relationship between community evaluation
and migration plans .................. 97

The relationship between family obligations
and migration plans .................. 99

vi

List of Tables (cont.)

17.

18.

19.

20.

21.

22.

23.

24.

25.

26.

27.

28.

29.

30.

31.

A comparison of the relationships between the five
independent variables and migration plans, using

Gamma as an index of association . . . . . ......

Proportion of students having some intention of

migrating who indicated they would stay if: .....

Regression of migration intention upon educational
and occupational aspirations, community satisfaction,

community evaluation and family obligations .....

The relationship between educational aspirations and

migration plans by levels of community satisfaction. .

The relationship between occupational aspirations and

migration plans by levels of community satisfaction. .

The relationship between education aspirations and
migration plans by levels of family obligations

The relationship between occupational aspirations and
migration plans by levels of family obligations

The relationship between educational aspirations and
migration plans by levels of community evaluation

The relationship between occupational aspirations and
migration plans by levels of community evaluation

The relationship between educational and occupational

aspirations .......... . . . ........

The relationship between educational aspirations and

migration plans by levels of occupational aspirations.

The relationship between the cultural orientation of

respondents' families and educational aspiration . . .

The relationship between the cultural orientation of
respondents' families and occupational aspiration

The relationship between the cultural orientation of

respondents' families and community satisfaction . . .

The relationship between the cultural orientation of
respondents' families and community evaluation

vii

102

103

105

107

110

112

114

116

121

123

126

126

128

128

List of Tables (cont.)

32.

33.

34.

35.

36.

37.

38.

The relationship between the cultural orientation of

the respondents' families and migration plans ......

The relationship between the social status of the
respondents' families and respondents' levels of

educational aSpirations ................

The relationship between the social status of the
respondents' families and respondents' levels of

occupational aspirations ...............

The relationship between the social status of the

respondents' families and respondents' migration plans.

The relationship between the respondents' birth

order and their educational aspirations ........

The relationship between the respondents' birth

order and their occupational aspirations .......

The relationship between the respondents' birth

order and migration plans. ..............

viii

Page

129

131

133

135

1.

2.

LIST OF FIGURES

The location of Jabal Nafussa (The study area) . . .

The location of the high schools surveyed .....

ix

68

CHAPTER I

SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AS
RELATED TO MIGRATION IN LIBYA:
A HISTORICAL BACKGROUND

INTRODUCTION

 

The focus of this dissertation is on the decision-making process
leading to migration or to non-migration on the part of young people
in a rapidly modernizing country. The data were obtained from male
High School students living in the relatively remote, non-urban part
of western Libya. In order to understand the current pattern and
process of migration, it is essential that the recent social and
economic history of Libya is set forth. This, then, is the goal
of the first chapter.

A unique set of geographical features and a past composed of
successive domination by foreign powers have been the significant
formative elements in Libya's history. The country, covering some
685,000 square miles, extends from the central Mediterranean coast
of North Africa across the Sahara to the highlands of north-central
Africa. Libya is considered to be the fourth largest country on the
African continent. Tripoli and Benghazi are easily the closest all-
year harbours for Mali, Niger and Chad in their trade with Europe.
Libya is a link between Africa and Europe, and indeed is the natural
trading route between these continents, a role played throughout

history in which Libya was known as the Gateway of Africa and the

Middle East. It embodies the traditions of these two sections of
the Arab World.

The Mediterranean and the Sahara Desert are the two geographi-
cal features that have most affected Libyan development, and it has
been the country's misfortune that their effects have been so dis-
proportionately strong. The Mediterranean influence predominates
only along two narrow coastal enclaves, whereas the Sahara holds
sway over the rest of the country, giving rise to the related prob-
lems of aridity, a meager supply of ground water, torrid temperatures
and frequent droughts. Only 5 percent of the total land area is eco-
nomically useful, and only 1 percent is regarded as suitable for per-
manent cultivation.

Until 1951, Libya had experienced independence for only 300
years, and that in the period from 1200 B.C. to 900 B.C. From the
end of this period to 1951, the country was under foreign domination.
The Turkish-Italian war of 1911-12 brought an end to the period of
Turkish control. Bound together by the Islamic religion, Libyans
and Turks fought together against the Italians. The Italians were
unable to suppress Libyan resistance until 1932, when the Italians
succeeded in occupying all of Libya. It was in control of the entire
country for only seven years before Libya came under British control
in 1943. In 1951, Libya gained independence. For the first time in
its history, Libya had its own government, but it had neither the
human and material resources nor the institutional base to function
as a viable economic unit.

Libya's brief history as an independent state, as one Libyan

scholar puts it "reads much like a tale from Arabian Nights, born

a poor orphan in the wake of World War II" (El Fathaly et_al,, l977:l).
Nearly any indicator of economic development that one chooses demon-
strates that Libya was one of the poorest and most backward countries
in the world at the time of independence (Lindberg, 1952:32). Libya
was described by Benjamin Higgins as the

prototype of a poor country...the bulk of the people lived on

a subsistence 1evel...no sources of power and mineral resources,

where agricultural expansion is severly limited by climate con-

ditions, where capital formation is zero or less, where there

is no skilled labor supply and no indigenous entrepreneurship...

Libya is at the bottom of the range in income and resources

(1968:26).
In 1952, per capita income was estimated at $30 per annum. Given
this low income, the levels of nutrition and health were very poor.
In this same year, the birth rate among Libyans was 5.3 percent per
annum. The natural rate of population growth was kept down to 1.1
percent by a death rate of 4.2 percent, which reflects an extremely
high death rate (Higgins, 1953z4). A high infant mortality rate was
related to the poor quality and level of diet and nutrition. At the
time of independence, studies revealed that the percentage of total
family expenditure for food amounted to 80 percent for city dwellers
(Lindberg, 1952:31).

Following the discovery of massive oil resources in the late
19505, Libya was dramatically transformed by its petroleum wealth
into one of the richest nations in the world. Per capita income in
1960 for example was $100 but suddenly rose to $5,178, and in 1981
it is estimated to be more than $5,359 (Ministry of Planning, 1976).

In 1980, Libya was exceptional among developing countries in

having a capital surplus rather than a capital deficit economy. The

Cinderella of the developing world in the 19605 and the 19705, Libya
has risen meteorically from deep poverty at the time of independence
in 1951 to great wealth at the present time. Furthermore, the possi-
bility exists that there may be even greater wealth in store in terms
of mineral deposits. As a consequence, Libya in the 19705 stood as
an anomaly among Third World countries, a relatively underpopulated
state with a very strong economic clout. In 1978, Libya was no
longer included in the list of developing countries by such interna-
tional agencies as the World Bank (IBRD, 1979). Rather it was defined
as a capital surplus nation.

The nation's post independence social and economic progress can
be divided into three periods, the first being the time from indepen-
dence until oil was discovered. In the second period, the start of
oil exports in 1961 moved it out of the "have not" into the "have".
column among the world's economies. The First of September Revolu-
tion in 1969 marking the start of the third period is characterized
by the creation of a balanced economy.

The economy at the time of independence was based essentially
upon agriculture, which was divided more or less evenly between field
crops and livestock products. Agriculture provided the raw materials
for much of the country's industrial sector, and for export and trade.
The agriculture sector in its two branches absorbed more than 70 per-
cent of the labor force and contributed about 30 percent of the gross
domestic product (GDP).

The second period preceding the discovery of oil changed dra-

matically the face of the first period. The outstanding characteristics

of the economy within this period are the transformation of the
country from stagnant to rapidly growing, and the predominance of
the oil sector in the Nation's economy. The increase in oil reve-
nue and its ratio to total revenue, accompanied by an unfortunate
decrease in other sectors of the economy, especially agriculture
which was neglected. Agriculture, according to Attiga "was left

to stagnate in its low level of development, and the consumer turned
to the world markets for the purchase of his daily food" (Attiga,
1973z9). Wealth, however, does not produce social, economic and
political modernization. As the early history of Libya's oil boom
illustrates, excessive unguided wealth tends to generate corruption,
waste, massive rural to urban migration and the decay of the agri-
cultural sector.

Some developmental specialists believe that development in
countries such as Libya should not be based on oil alone. Instead,
the oil revenues should be utilized to dramatically broaden the base
of the Libyan economy by creating other industries and by moderniz-
ing and expanding the existing agricultural potential. Thus the
economy can be diversified (El Malakh, 1973:28-46).

In light of the above recommendation, the third period is
characterized by a radical social and economic change. The revolu-
tionary leaders drastically reordered the development priorities
established by the previous regime by placing strong emphasis on
the development of the agricultural sector, the development and
diversification of industry and the general lessening of the depen-

dence of the economy on the oil sector. The five year (1976-1980)

development plan projected that the oil sector would account for
less than 50 percent of the national income. Similar transforma-
tions have also been projected in the social arena. Health care,
housing and education are guaranteed to all Libyans. Recent laws
provide for the mandatory education of children up to the Junior
High School age and compulsory adult education programs for indivi-
duals in selected occupations (E1 Fathaly gt_al,, 1977z2).

The focus of the next section of this chapter is to discuss
the social and economic changes that Libya went through and the im-
plications of these changes for the process of migration. The dis-
cussion will be limited to the second and third periods only since

they are of greater importance to the subject of this dissertation.

The Period Following the Oil Discovery: 1961-1969

The country's prospects for development were far from bright
in 1951. Recurring environmental problems told part of the story.
Literacy was almost non-existent and poverty was extreme, as evidenced
by the per capital income. No industrial base had been developed and
the availability of mineral resources was thought to be extremely
limited. This situation prevailed until the early 19605, and until
1961 Libya was greatly indebted for its economic and political via-
bility to the international donors who participated in programs of
technical and financial aid.

With the discovery of oil the bleak picture of the period fol-
lowing independence changed dramatically. As previously suggested,
the Libyan economy was transformed from a stagnant to a rapidly grow-

ing economy, with petroleum predomiant (E1 Fathaly gt 31,, 1977: 16).

The dramatic development of the oil industry also opened new vistas
for national development. This was reflected in the government bud-
get and national economy. Within a few years, Libya had become one
of the world's largest exporters of crude oil and had moved from the
status of a capital-deficit nation to a capital-surplus nation and
from an aid recipient to an aid extender (El-Malakh, 1969:308).

As the oil revenues began to mount and the prospects for con-
tinued growth were excellent, the government moved quickly to
modernize the infrastructure, develop the country's social over-
head, and to improve the living conditions.

The First Five-Year Social and Economic
Devel opment Plan

 

 

The 1963-1968 development plan was the first comprehensive
socio-economic plan ever to be taken by an emerging nation, and it
was the first to be introduced in Libya's history. The plan was de-
signed to spend about $922 million over a period of five years. As
seen in Table 1, this plan heavily emphasized the infrastructure,
including power, transport and municipal improvements. Infrastruc-
ture absorbed 44 percent of the total amount budgeted, compared with
9.5 percent for agriculture, 8.5 percent for education, 5.5 percent
for industry, 3.5 percent for public health and 11 percent for
housing. It is evident that agriculture and industry did not
receive high proportions of the development allocations. Instead,

public work received the largest allocations.

Table l
The first five-year Social and
economic development plan
(1963-1968)

(In millions of US dollars)

 

 

 

Sector of Total Percentage
Development Expenditure of Total
Public Works 211,288,000 23
Transport and 195,823,000 21
Communication
Housing 103,600,000 11
Agriculture 88,169,200 9.5
Industry 47,465,600 5.5
Economy and Trade 10,029,600 1
Education and National 80,668,000 8.5
Guidance
Health 34,042,400 3.5
Labour and Social Affairs 55,048,800 7
Culture and Information 11,032,000 1
Planning and Development 48,946,800 5.5
Studies
Interior Affairs 34,300,000 3.5
Other 1,890,000 -
Total 922,303,400 100.0

 

The lack of emphasis on agricultural and industrial development
affected these two important sectors negatively and led to their

gradual decline by the middle of the five-year plan (1965-66). The

money allocated for industry, however, did not even carry this sector
to the take-off stage, as described by Rostow (1956).

Despite notable allocations of oil revenues into the programs
and projects, the sudden infusion of so much wealth into the economy
was difficult to absorb. The country's narrow industrial base, small
labour force and limited administrative machinery were hard pressed
to implement such a comprehensive program in so short a time. The
first plan "demonstrated among other things, the shortsightedness
and poor planning and management capabilities of the government
agencies" (El Fathaly gt_gl,, 1977:18).

Per capita income as an indicator of modernization (development)
was estimated to have increased about 600 percent over this period,
or from about $262 in 1962 to approximately $1,840 in 1968, as com-
pared with figures from the first period of $30 to $40 from the year
of independence until oil was discovered. It should be noted, how-
ever, that the figures of the latter period, although they increased
dramatically, do not reflect the inequalities in income distribution
that lie behind these average figures (NYROP gt_al,, 1973).

Despite the large amount of wealth generated by oil revenues,
and the amount of money allocated by the first plan for welfare and
development, conditions of life for the bulk of ordinary Libyans re-
mained untouched in many areas. Only a small segment of the popula-
tion has benefited from the new wealth. Distribution of this wealth
has been far from uniform, even taking into account the distributive
effort of government development programs. It was estimated that

until late 1968 only 50 percent of the total income accrued to some

10

10 percent of the population. As late as 1966 it was estimated that
one-third of the population lived in primitive conditions. The
government estimated that in 1966 about 11,200 households including
more than 49,000 people, were located in caves while 296,000 people
(70,242 households) inhabited shanties. At the same time, about
65,000 families, including approximately 313,000 people, were esti-
mated to live in tents and were presumably nomadic. Furthermore,
between 1961 and 1969 the gross national product (GNP) increased by
289 percent but the income of the bottom 90 percent of the popula-

tion increased only 90 percent in the same period.

The Impact of Oil on the Economy

The first oil exports took place in 1961, and the revenues gen-
erated by this wealth in that year totaled $3.2 million but by 1969
they exceeded $1.1 billion. This increase in oil revenues reflected
a ten-fold increase in the GNP, a nine-fold increase in the gross
national product (GNP). Exports grew from almost $12 million in 1961
to better than $2,796 million in 1969 while imports increased from
$207 million to an estimated $779 million. Non-oil exports declined
from 100 percent to less than 1 percent of total exports for the same
period.

During this decade Libya became a classic example of a dual
economy, in which two separate economies (oil and non-oil) operated
side by side. No connection existed between them except that the
oil sector employed limited quantities of local labour. The non-oil
sector consists of two types of economies. On one hand, there is a

predominantly primitive rural economy supported by nomadic livestock,

11

breeders and subsistence farmers. 0n the other hand, there is a
growing small industry and market economy, which acts as a powerful
magnet to the rural population. Thousands of Libyans have left the
rural hinterland for the urban centers. It has been estimated that
while Libya's population in 1956 was 80 percent rural, it had become
80 percent urban by 1968.

The increase in oil revenues and its ratio to total revenue,
(accompanied by an unfortunate decrease in other sectors of the
economy, especially agriculture) promoted at first the idea that
oil was the key to the dynamic character of the Libyan economy and
its vitality for the development of the country (Wright, 1969:257-
258). Table 2 dramatizes this condition. The contribution of the
oil revenue to the total revenue overwhelms the contribution of the
non-oil sectors.

Before the advent of petroleum, agriculture was the largest
productive sector in the economy, employing 70 percent of the labour
force and contributing 30 percent of the gross domestic product (GDP).
By 1969 agriculture accounted for only 3 percent of the GDP and ab-
sorbed only about 30 percent of the labour force (NYROP gt_al,, 1973).
Revenue from agriculture declined from 28 percent in 1963 to 18.5 per-
cent in 1967. Revenue from industry grew very slowly and represented
less than 5 percent of Libya's total revenue in 1967 (Ministry of
Economy, 1968). Libya's agriculture, explained Dr. Attiga, then
Libya's Minister of Development and Planning, "was left to stagnate
in its low level of development and the consumer turned to the world

markets for the purchase of his daily food...At the beginning of oil

12

exploration the total value of imported food and food produce was
about $1,700,000. By 1969 it was $95,000,000" (Attiga, 1973:9-18).
At the same time "agricultural exports had declined from a value of
$4,180,000 in 1956 to $2,040,000 in 1961 and to only about $108,000
in 1968. The last figure was not enough to pay for Libya's import
of food for one-third of a single year" (First, 1974:145).

Table 2

Libya's Oil revenue and its contribution
to the total revenue

(in US dollars)

 

Oil Revenue as

 

Fiscal Year Total Revenue Oil Revenue Percentage
of Total

1958-59 47,465,600 254,800 0.54
1959-60 51,416,400 271,600 0.53
1960-61 62,596,800 322,000 0.52
1961-62 71,968,400 5,577,600 7.8
1962-63 100,875,601 20,132,000 20.0
1963-64 177,433,200 66,752,000 37.6
1964-65 240,256,000 153,213,200 63.6
1965-66 373,668,400 234,130,400 62.7
1966-67 534,592,300 379,210,800 74.3
1967-68 820,400,000 776,227,000 94.6

 

Source: Data presented in Tables 1 and 2 was compiled from
different governmental publicat1ons.

13

Socio-Economic Development and Migration

 

During the period of rapid urban growth, migration was the sig-
nificant mechanism of demographic change, a reaction to the social
and economic conditions. As such, migration was a necessary element
of normal demographic, social and economic adjustment to a new
equilibrium.

Migration from the rural to urban areas of Libya in the 1951-61
period assumed such proportions that it became more important than
traditional tribal movements as a factor in defining the population
structure. These movements used to be temporary phenomena and were
regarded as a useful means of supplementing low and uncertain agri-
cultural incomes. However, the real and imagined employment oppor-
tunities resulting from the discovery of oil have made many of the
migration streams permanent following the discovery of oil. Since
1959, movement from the land has amounted to a virtual exodus.

Since the discovery of oil the population of Libya has become
increasingly urbanized as rural people moved to the cities in grow-
ing numbers, hoping for better employment and benefiting from hous-
ing and other programs financed by oil revenues. Tripoli and Benghazi
have been the recipients of the mainstream of this rural-urban move-
ment, their populations growing at annual rates of 6.5 and 7 percent,
respectively, during the late 19605.

The migration streams toward the big cities were a reaction to
the dramatic changes in the agricultural sector brought about by the
discovery of oil. After centuries of predominance, agriculture

rapidly became a lagging sector. Massive labour movements from

14

rural areas to urban centers and the oil fields have left agriculture
seriously undermanned.

The movement of rural populations to urban areas in advanced
countries has represented a necessary adjustment to rising producti—
vity in agriculture and in the country as a whole. Yet the movement
of labour out of agriculture is a major phenomenon in most develop-
ing countries as well. Obviously, there are several reasons why
people leave agriculture. These reasons include better pay, shorter
hours, better education and services, and the shortage of rural hous-
ing. Along with these reasons there are two more reasons explaining
the rural migration phenomenon in Libya, namely, the level of income
and the opportunities for non-agricultural employment.

The income from agriculture was among the lowest income as com-
pared to other sectors of the economy during this period (1961-69).
The per capita income in the agricultural sector in the late 19605
was $350, whereas the overall per capita income reached $1,510 in
the same year (World Bank, 1972:112). Many agriculturalists were
attracted by the wages in developing new industries and the expand-
ing employment, especially in the state bureauracy.

Some social scientists in trying to explain the mass rural
migration to urban centers in a country such as Libya which is ex-
periencing a transition from an economy based primarily on agricul-
ture to a more industrialized economy, have viewed the migrants as
surplus labour resulting from the introduction of modern technology
in the agricultural sector (Rogers, 1960; Toshio, 1968). However,
the evidence shows that the agricultural sector was neglected by the

government and that emphasis was put on the development of

15

infrastructure. Therefore, the above explanation is not applicable
in the Libyan case.

It appears from a survey conducted by the Ministry of Agricul-
ture that technology in the form of modern machinery at least was
not replacing the farm labourers. Hence, the explanation of migra-
tion in terms of a surplus farm labour force must be rejected. The
primitive conditions of life, however, when considered in relation
to other factors, offer a better explanation. This was manifested
in the early discussion of the five year plan and the impact of the
actual plan on the different segments of the population. The social
welfare programs of the government benefited the urban population
but improved conditions only to a limited extent for the inhabitants
of rural communities (SRI, 1969:87).

In sum, we can see that the rural migration to the urban centers
during this period was a complex phenomenon. One perspective on migra-
tion suggests that there is a kind of "push-pull" effect where the
deteriorating conditions in the countryside are matched by the attrac-

tion, both economic and social, of the cities.

The Post 1969 September lst Revolution Period

 

The rapidly growing oil industry drastically changed the social
and economic structure of the Libyan society. Unfortunately, the
tremendous wealth generated by this industry was not utilized pro-
perly by the regime of the monarchy (see discussion in the Second
Period of this chapter). Much of it was wasted in unproductive sec-
tors. There was little or no attempt to direct the national economy

on a sound basis. There was a boom in the building industry but a

16

disastrous decline in agriculture. Industry, along with agriculture,
was neglected and the amounts spent on development budgets were below
those made in the ordinary budgets. Agriculture, industry and educa-
tion received low allocations (See Tables 2, 4).

"Libya's society, administration and economy were unprepared to
utilize and absorb the new wealth" (E1 Fathaly gt_al,, 1977:17). The
unmanageable effects of the abundant oil production on the part of the
monarchy is described by a Libyan economist. One effect on the economy
was the creation of rapid waves of one-way migration from rural areas
to urban centers by farm labourers who were seeking higher wages. This
migration added to the growing deterioration and depletion of the agri-
cultural sector during the period following the oil discovery. The
result was crowded urban centers and deserted farmlands in many parts
of the country. As a result of increased urban population and in-
creased per capita income, there was a sudden increase in the demand
for food and agricultural products (Attiga, 1973).

In sum, the monarchy's economic policy since 1951 led to a wide
gap between the oil sector and the agricultural and industrial sec-
tors. The policy of the revolutionary regime after 1969 was to bridge
this gap and to integrate wealth from oil into both agricultural and
industrial activities.

In 1969, the September 1 Revolution marked the start of the
third period. There were changes in the priorities of development
strategy. The main goal of the new regime has been to change the
situation of the national economy from full dependence on oil to

balanced growth among all sectors. Oil was no longer just a sector

17

Table 3
Government expenditures 1963-64 to 1970-71

(In millions of Libyan Dinars)*

 

 

Fiscal Year Ordinary Budget ' Development Budget
1963-64 50.2 12.5
1964-65 64.2 23.0
1965-66 83.0 52.4
1966-67 112.6 82.3
1967-68 170.0 92.0
1968-69 222.0 123.0
1969-70 190.3 145.0
1970-71 182.8 200.0

 

Source: Ministry of Petroleum, 1972:138.

*Before August 15, 1971 the Libyan dinar equaled us $2.80.
After December 18, 1971, it equaled US $3.04.

of the economy with a predetermined income for the country. But it
did have a leading role among all sectors of the economy in bringing
a closer integration of the different economic sectors and in pro-
ducing a sound basis for a balanced growth of the national economy.
There was a greater pressure in this period to create alternative
productive assets to substitute for the revenue earning capacity of
the oil sector. In this respect the revolutionary regime has par-
ticularly emphasized the creation of sound agricultural and indus-
trial sectors at any cost.

To achieve these overall goals, as a first step on the path of

18

sound growth, a series of laws resulted in the nationalization of
many agricultural, industrial, commercial and service institutions
and placed them under the direct control of the state. By 1972, the
nationalization program was supplemented by a policy of economic
modernization (development) and independence. The middle term future
of the economy was one in which petroleum would provide the revenues
for development projects with increased emphasis on agriculture and
industrialization, particularly petro-chemicals.

New Prospects on the Path of Social
and“Economic‘Dev616pment

 

 

By 1972 the revolutionary government's role in the economy was
overwhelmingly predominant and the state became the major organ for
both the private and public sectors of the economy. The changes in
petroleum, agriculture and industrial policies came as a result of
this new role assumed by the state. On the basis of socialist prin-
ciples, the revolutionary government exerted every possible effort to
achieve self-sufficiency in production and justice in distribution,
to liberate the national economy from dependence and foreign influ-
ence, and to provide education and medical treatment for all citizens
free of charge.

The 1972-73 social and economic development was designed to ful-
fill these objectives and it was drawn on the following fundamentals:

(1) Rectification of flows and weak points in the economic

structure of the sixties in a manner that would bring
about an equilibrium and integration of various economic

activities that would narrow the gap of social differences.

19

(2) Achievement of the maximum rate of growth in the national

economy.

(3) Diversification of economic activities with emphasis on

agriculture and industry.

(4) Reasonable rate of oil production so that oil resources

will not be exhausted in a short period of time.

(5) Extension of social services to cover the remote areas

which suffered much deprivation and neglect in the past.

(6) Education and medical treatment for all citizens free of

charge.

(7) Provide every citizen with a proper house (Ministry of

Foreign Affairs, 1976:88).

Comparing the pre-revolutionary Five-Year Plan (1963-68) with
the Three-Year Plan (1973-75) set by the revolutionary regime, the
latter showed greater readjustment of priorities (See Tables 1, 4
and 5). Transport and communications declined to 10 percent and
industry (including mining but not petroleum) increased 7 percent.
Electrification appeared for the first time as a separate budget
category (9 percent) as did petroleum (9 percent). This reflected
increased preoccupation with extending the power network as well as
the government's purpose to take greater part in the exploration,
production and processing aspects of the petroleum industry and its
petro chemical and other by-products. Agriculture received the
highest allocation; there was a boost of 34 million dinars in just
over a year (Table 5). Allocation for education reached almost 9
percent; there was a 15,600,000 dinars increase over a period of

two years (Table 5).

20

Table 4
Allocation for the 1973-75 Development Plan

(In Libyan Dinars)

 

 

 

Sector Allocation Pg;¢e3§g?e
Agriculture and Agri- 137,906,000 7.0
cultural Reclamation
Agricultural Integrated 278,128,000 14.2
Development
Industry and Mineral Resources 238,154,000 12.1
Petroleum 164,564,000 8.4
Electricity 190,513,000 9.6
Transport and Communication 190,332,000 9.6
Education 189,290,000 9.6
Public Health 070,963,000 3.6
Labour 024,343,000 1.2
Youth and Social Affairs 014,046,000 .7
Housing and Public Utilities 277,850,000 14.1
Economy and Tourism 009,280,000 .5
Information and Culture 029,365,000 1.5
Local Administration 129,968,000 6.6
Planning 003,900,000 .1
Administration Development 002,515,000 .1
Reserves for Projects 023,883,000 1.2
TOTAL 1,965,000,000 100.0

 

#7

Source: Ministry of Information and Culture, 1974: 9.

21

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22

The second development plan (1976-80), called the Five-Year
Economic and Social Transformation Plan, was a continuation of the
three-year plan with a long term scope. This plan assumed an annual
increase of nearly 11 percent in the gross national product (GNP) and
an increase in a per capita income of 5.6 percent annually. Priori-
ties were given to agriculture, industry, electricity, education,
municipalities and housing. As of 1978 the 1976-80 plan had been
revised upward to L0 9.25 million from an original level of just
over LD 7 billion (See Table 6).

Policy in regard to the industrialization program had several
goals: diversification of income sources, substitution for consumer
goods imports, and processing of agricultural products. Plans for
industrial development stated by the Three-Year Development Plan of
1973-75 called for an annual growth of 24.5 percent in real terms as
against 11 percent for the economy as a whole and 5 percent in the
petroleum sector. The number of plants completed and in production
by 1979 was 58, and another 36 different projects were under con-
struction. In addition, contracts and studies for 34 more projects
were in progress (Ministry of Information, 1979:137). To meet the
demands of these industrial projects for skilled and technical per-
sonnel, some twenty-eight technical schools were in operation in
the late 19705 as compared with only four such schools before 1969.
Six of these schools are industrial institutes with a capacity of
over 3000 per year, and two are advanced oil institutes (Ministry
of Information, 1979:35).

Along with industry, the revolutionary regime regarded the agri-

cultural sector as of prime importance, and it was given very high

23

Table 6
1976-80 Development Plan and Expenditure for 1978

(In millions of Libyan Dinars)

 

 

 

Original Revised Revised
Allocations Allocations Allocations
1976-80

Agriculture and agrarian 412,269 498,000 109,000
reform
Integral agricultural 857,760 977,660 227,600
development
Dams and water resources 80,040 139,115 26,000
Nutrition and marine wealth 49,161 63,673 157,500
Industry and mineral wealth 1,149,418 1,204,980 221,500
Oil and gas exploitation 670,000 670,000 90,000
Electricity 683,195 896,825 170,000
Education 491,655 521,820 122,000
Information and culture 99,168 121,925 24,500
Manpower 56,002 62,712 13,000
Public health 197,655 273,640 62,700
Social affairs and social 13,157 33,757 62,500
1nsurance
Youth and sports 52,020 62,000 16,000
Housing 794,236 1,131,040 211,000
Security services 35,000 60,000 13,500
Municipalities 565,108 755,729 170,000
Transport and communica- - 659,854 929,798 144,200
tions
Marine transport 353,500 373,500 60,000
Trade and marketing 36,730 44,740 65,000
Planning and scientific 13,045 16,800 35,000
research
Reserve for projects 230,027 409,586 72,000
Total (incl. others) 7,525,000 9,250,000 1,785,000

 

Source: Ministry of Planning, 1976.

24

priority. Two plans were adopted (1973-75, 1976-80) to carry into
effect the agricultural policy, based on the following principles:
(1) to safeguard natural resources and utilize available soil and
water; (2) to reclaim new areas which were to be divided into pro-
ductive farms; (3) to establish settlements supplied with all re-
quired services, and (4) to ensure the participation of the agricul-
tural sector in the progress of the national economy by means of in-
creasing agricultural productivity (Ministry of Information, 1976:96).

In the mid 19705 all Italian-owned farms in Libya were returned
to the government, which in turn were distributed among the Libyan
farmers with government credits for seeds, fertilizers and machinery.
The area under irrigation has increased and according to 1976 figures
had reached 300,000 hectares. A number of very large contracts were
awarded for reclamation and irrigation work in various scheduled areas.
All agricultural projects were meant to be fully integrated, providing
for the establishment of farms, the building of rural roads, etc. and
in some cases, the introduction of agricultural industries. 0f par-
ticular importance as a way to keep farmers in the countryside, as
well as to increase agricultural output, was an extremely ambitious
ten-year agricultural land reclamation and farmer resettlement scheme
initiated in 1972. The aim of this project was to reclaim one million
hectares of land and provide farms for tens of thousands of rural
families.

Development in this sector brought modernization to the vil-
lages and rural communities in the form of schools, hospitals, elec-
tric lights and other twentieth century adornments. Furthermore, in

an increasing number of rural localities, former farm labourers

25

received titles to farms and owned houses in which electricity
water, and modern appliances made their residences almost indistin-
guishable from those of prosperous urban dwellers.

Education under the monarchy exhibited much more influence
from religious elements than in any previous period. Even with rela-
tive expansion, the educational system did not meet the country's need
for trained, managerial and skilled personnel (E1 Fathaly gt_gl,, 1977:
13). The small and inadequate school system suffered from a limited
curriculum, a lack of qualified teachers. The new regime, however,
continued the quantitative expansion of the educational system, and
has effected tremendous changes in the quality and level of education.
The revolutionary regime realized the fact that it has to relate the
educational system to current and ambitious needs of the development
projects in different sectors of the economy. The following major
changes were made. First, an emphasis was placed on vocational and
technical training. In this regard, an expansion and upgrading of
vocational education was given special priority in order to provide
the country with the most needed skills in such fields as agricul-
ture and industry. Second, stress was given to higher education in
applied sciences and technology with immediate usefulness to the
economy. Third, school attendance was made compulsory between the
ages of six and fifteen years,or until completion of the preparatory
cycle of High School. In addition, changes in the requirements and
in teaching methods were also made at this level. And fourth, an
expansion took place in the number and geographical distribution of

schools. Assembly line school buildings were erected in rural areas

26

and desert oases to bring every citizen in contact with education

(E1 Fathaly et_al,, 1977:13). As a result, the total school enroll—
ment increased tremendously during this period (See Table 7). The
total enrollment rose from nearly 150,000 in 1962 to 360,000 at the
time of the 1969 revolution. By 1977 a total student population of
about 780,000 included more than 200,000 above the primary level.

The enrollment of one million, or nearly one-third of the population,
was expected in the scholastic year of 1980-81.

In sum, oil made capital available for social and economic de-
velopment and changes in priorities during this period made for sig-
nificant alterations in the Libyan social and economic structure.

The tremendous investment for agricultural and industrial development
resulted in a great number of new projects and enterprises. These
changes created the need for mass education in order to supply skilled
workers and specialists needed for these new projects. Also these
changes enhanced the division of labour and provided a foundation for
the rise of professional groups which inspired many young people who
are ambitious for status and emphasized dignity and prestige of occu-
pation more than monetary rewards.

Social and economic development, therefore, stimulated the
nature and pattern of employment, which in turn created the heavy
and continuing flow of rural-to-urban migration, especially among
the young and educated. Statistics for the mid 19705 revealed that
almost one-half of the economically active population was employed
in either public administration, construction or industry. Planners

predicted that the proportion employed in non-agricultural sectors

would continue to increase slightly through 1980 and that it would

27

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mme.~_ me~.__ omm.m _mm.o mmo.m mmm.~ _mw.~ omN.F Nem 2859?:
corpsbwpmcH
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omm.¢ mmo.e _Pe.m Nom.m eme.F mom mmm om.._ mmF.P PaUPCSUwe
M mmF.m_ ~_e.mp mme.m eom.m mmm.m omm.e eFN.N am~.~ seaecoumm
omN.-_
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Fm~.wem map.emm owm.¢me mme.moe oem.orm _m~.wem mm~.~mp Nam.¢mP mmo.PmP zeaeeea
m~--mp m~-memp ¢~-meo_ --Pemp o~-ammp mo-~maF mo-mmm_ em-mom~ No-Foop Pa>ms

 

mmumump use Nonpomp :mmzpmm pcwsppoccw poocum

m mpnmh

28

exceed agriculture by the year 2000 (See Table 8). The new influence
on employment has been making itself felt not only in urban centers

but in many of the villages as well as the desert oasis towns.

Table 8

Projections of industrial compositions of labour force
in Libya: 1980-2000

(All Numbers in Thousands)

 

 

Sector 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Agriculture 231 263 298 336 375
Industry 175 220 273 335 409
Services 343 400 464 536 617

 

Source: (Tsui gt 31,, 1979:37).

It is evident from our previous discussion that tremendous
9(‘ social and economic changes have been brought about by the new stra-

tegies of development adopted by the revolutionary regime. The de-
mand for skilled and professional personnel accompanying these changes
inspired many young people to seek higher education and consequently
higher social status. These attractions were sufficient to cause
those residing in the hinterland to move toward the cities seeking
higher education and a better life style. This migration in our view
was inspired more by social psychological factors such as higher
prestige and higher status rather than by the economic factors.

Consequently, the migration phenomenon in Libya can be best

understood from a micro level whereas most of the research that has

29

been conducted in most developing countries was on a macro level,
mainly by demographers, economists or ecologists. They were con-
cerned primarily with three things, the rate, concentration, and
composition of migration streams. Hence, the migration decision
in Libya will be viewed from a social psychological point of view
in which the framework supplied by Beegle §t_al, (1957) will be
utilized.

At this point, it is appropriate to state the organization
of the thesis. Chapter One dealt with the social and economic back-
ground of Libya and the conditions under which the process of migra-
tion prevails. The theoretical framework will be discussed in
Chapter TWo along with the definition of the major variables and
the formulation of major hypotheses to be tested. Chapter Three
deals with the research design, data collection, description of
the test population and the measurement of the major variables.
Method of analysis, results and tests of the major hypotheses will
be presented in Chapter Four. In the last chapter, Chapter Five,
summary of the results will be discussed against the theoretical

framework.

CHAPTER II

THE RESEARCH PROBLEM

INTRODUCTION

 

The subject of migration is a very broad one indeed. A whole
set of complex factors are involved in migration phenomena which cut
across many disciplines, including sociology, economics,geography,
demography, public health and public planning and policy. The study
of this subject is often diffuse because of its multi-faceted dimen-
sions, and one is often tempted to treat it broadly with little in-
depth analysis.

The development of migration theory has been less promising
than in other areas of demographic theory. There has been a prolifera-
tion of concepts vis-a-vis migration, but they have not been combined
into a comprehensive framework. Researchers have tended to limit
their studies to certain variables and have ignored others. We have
such concepts as intervening opportunities, the income gap, expected
income, and so forth but they have not been adequately refined and
related to a broad theoretical framework, or discarded as inappro-
priate. Hence, migration theory may be characterized as a collection
of empirical generalizations and typologies.

Some writers on migration, for instance, have classified the
factors influencing migration as "pull factors" and "push factors"

(Lee, 1966). With regard to rural-urban migration, therefore, it is

30

31

argued that general poverty conditions, relatively low levels of
income, demographic pressures on the available agricultural land,
and the stagnation of the agriculture economy, create "push" pres-
sures on the rural population which lead to exodus to towns. Towns,
on the other hand, are said to exert a "pull" by virtue of their
superior social and economic conditions and higher wages which favor
improvement in the life of individuals as compared with those who
stay in the rural areas.

Some other authors such as Mitchell (1970) have argued that a
single factor motivating migration is inadequate; on the other
hand, the listing of all possible motivations is equally untenable.
According to Mitchell, the multiple causes should be linked in a
logical framework and classified under two headings, “the nexus of
centrifugal tendencies" and "the nexus of centripetal tendencies"
subdivided by social, psychological and economic factors.

The most important handicap in the study of migration, however,
is its lack of a general theory. A great number of works have been
compiled on the subject but a satisfactory integration has not yet
been made (Mangalam, 1968).

Theoretical statements that do exist in the contemporary litera-
ture, while useful and adequate for interpreting specific seg—
ments of the migration field or for making sense out of specific
data in each instance, largely fail to provide a general frame-
work within the vast amount of existing facts from different
migration studies that can be integrated and given meaning...
The ideal of comprehensive theory of migration is not only
possible but must be an important concern in the future

1963:1 .

The first systematic attempt to study the problem of migration was

done by Ravenstein (1885). He developed the thesis that the decision

32

to move is never completely "rational" and that not all persons decide
by themselves to migrate. Ravenstein concluded from his studies that
the characteristics of the migration process, which he called the
"laws of migration," are: (1) migration is influenced by distance

to be covered; (2) it occurs in stages; (3) streams and counter
streams are always present; (4) there are very important rural dif-
ferences in the propensity to migrate; (5) females predominate among
the short distance migrants; (6) technology affects migration; and
(7) in all migrations the economic motive is the most important.

Some of these broad generalizations about migration in the nine-
teenth century have been confirmed by some studies while some recent
studies have modified these early generalizations.

Since Ravenstein's early work, most subsequent researchers have
focused their studies on specific aspects of the migration process.
Among them, for instance, was George K. Zipf (1946) who sought to
explain migration by the "principle of least effort." Zipf aserted
that the number of persons going from one city to another should be
a function of the distance separating them, since the effort required
to cover greater distances would presumably increase as does the dis-
tance. Some other authors, however, argue that migration is not a
mere function of distance and that distance is not of overpowering
importance.

Stouffer (1940) continued the effort to state empirical generali-
zations and presumably injected a greater degree of precision by
introducing the notion of proportionality in his theory of inter-

vening opportunities: "The number of persons going a given distance

33

is directly proportional to the number of opportunities at that dis-
tance and inversely proportional to the number of intervening oppor-
tunities" (1940:845). In a paper published in 1960, Stouffer intro-
duced a further variable, namely, "competing migrants." Thus, his
original model became an attempt to express for a specific time in-
terval, the number of migrants from city A to city B as a direct
function of the number of opportunities in city B, and an inverse
function of the number of opportunities intervening between city A
and city B as well as the number of other migrants competing for
opportunities in city 8.

With regard to distance and migration streams, Rose (1970) exam-
ined the socio-economic status of migrants in relation to how far
they migrate. He found that on the average, upper class migrants
move greater distances than lower class migrants. 3His hypothesis
was based on the notion of opportunities, that is, those with high

‘Nraspirations seek better opportunity and must move greater distances
while those with fewer skills and aspirations look for less desirable
opportunities and move shorter distances.

More recently, Lee (1966) has built upon the earlier work of
Ravenstein and others by developing a more comprehensive set of gen-
eralizations which include the fbllowing: "the volume of migration
within a given territory varies with the degree of diversity of
areas included in that territory" and "the volume of migration
varies with the diversity of people." He proposed that "no matter
how short or how long, how easy or how difficult, every act of migra-

tion involves an origin, a destination and an intervening obstacle"

34

(1966:48). Lee summarized the factors involved in the process of
migration as being (1) factors associated with the area of origin;
(2) factors associated with the area of destination; (3) intervening
obstacles and (4) personal factors (1970). Bogue further elaborated
on the attributes of places in relation to in and out migrations.

He stated that "selectivity of out migrants from any community tends
to vary directly with the strength of attractive 'pulls' from other
communities and inversely with the explosive 'pushes' from the commu-
nity of origin" (1961:12).

Another attempt in the direction of building a general theory
of migration made by those studying the migration process is to
establish a universal migrant prototype. The term "selectivity"
used by these scholars refers to the characteristics of a group of
individuals who tend to be more migratory than others. These charac-
teristics are identified as migration differentials in the literature
and include age, sex, level of education, occupation and socio-
economic status, among others. White and Woods (1980) proposed
two generalizations with regard to these attributes: first, that
migrants are not randomly selected from the population at the place
of origin, and second, that migrants at a certain destination do not
form a random cross-section addition to the population. Furthermore,
Bogue (1961) suggested that when testing hypotheses related to migra-
tion selectivity, consideration should be given to population and
environmental conditions both at the place of origin and place of

destination.

35

The proposition that migration is selective or that differential

in migration exists is well documented in the literature, although

some of the characteristics that differentiate migrants from non-

migrants ck) not withstand the test of generalizability.

At present, at least four approaches to the study of migration

differentials are found in the literature. They include:

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

The ecological approach focuses on the movement and dis-
tribution of persons in space by characteristics of place
rather than by characteristics of persons.

The demographic approach focuses on characteristics or
groups of characteristics of persons rather than places.
The sociological approach attempts to connect observed
significant characteristics of migrants with particular
social systems and their functions. Migration behavior
is related to patterns of formal and informal organiza-
tional participation, to value systems of culture and its
subcultures.

The social psychological approach recognizes migration as
an individual decision-making process and focuses on
attitudes and motivation of migrants. Migration behavior
may be linked to personality adjustment or personality

types.

Work in the area of migration has thus remained at the level

of empirical generalizations. Such generalizations are worthwhile,

in that they provide evidence for the relevance of particular concepts

and specify relations among them. As long as they remain unconnected

36

to form a body of theory, however, they are of limited value since the

specific conditions under which they operate are unknown and they can-

not be used for prediction or deductive explanation (Byrne, 1972:2-3).
Migration, as we have seen, has been studied mainly by demo-

graphers whose analyses have typically been on the macro structural

level since they were primarily concerned with migration streams and

migration differentials. Demographers, however, did not analyze

their data at either the individual or the social psychological

level, nor more specifically from the attitudinal point of view.

Therefore, we find a wealth of material dealing with demographic

and ecological explanations of migration but virtually none on atti-

tudes associated with migration.

The Scope of the Study

 

In most developing countries there has been a large, contin-
uous movement from rural areas to urban centers in recent decades.
In describing modern population migration, it has been observed that
Western world migration represents an equilibrium type of movement,
whereas in the Third World, especially West Africa, migration repre-
sents a disequilibrium type of movement. It is the rapid improvement
in the areas of health, education, employment, social welfare and
other amenities of the new modernization occurring in the major
cities and towns of the Third World that has motivated rural people
to migrate. Few of these services have yet reached the village
level (Kempinski, 1961).

The general patterns of rural-urban migration in the developing

countries are far from being uniform. In Africa, studies indicate

37

that migration streams historically have developed from a tribal-
based to a traditional, state-based type (Harvey, 1969). Mobogunje
(1972) described migration in Africa as being primarily regional,
where individuals or groups of people cross ethnic or national boun-
daries. For the most part, rural-urban migration in Africa resembles
a labour-force type of movement (Prothero, 1976).

In Asia, although rural to urban migration is pronounced, var-
ious patterns were manifested in some countries of this continent.

In Malaysia, for instance, rural people are attracted to new settle-
ments (Witraileke, 1965). In Indonesia people were transported from
crowded Java to frontier lands (Withington, 1963). Due to social
and economic developments that are taking place in these and other
countries, settlement schemes are becoming increasingly commonplace.

In Latin America, the Andean uplands are the frequent locus of
internal migration toward the lowlands east of the Andes (Butland,
1966; Dozier, 1969). It has been estimated that about 60 percent of
Latin American population is living in cities (Brunn and Thomas,
1970). The patterns of step-wise and of direct movements toward the
cities is well documented in the literature (Thomas and Mulvihill,
1980; Thomas and Catau, 1974).

Two types of movements are recognized in the Arab countries,
namely, nomad migration and rural to urban migration. Due to various
settlement projects and voluntary settling, the former type has been
drastically reduced (Awad, 1962; Shamekh, 1975). The direction of
the rural migration, on the other hand, was mainly toward major cities

and the oil fields. The discovery of oil and improvements in health,

 

l‘”.

W?

to

US

C0

38

education, transportation and economic opportunities accompanying
the oil exploration, has accelerated the process of rural migration.
Nevertheless, rural to urban migration exists also in countries that
have more agricultural potential, such as Egypt, Sudan, Iraq, Libya
and Syria (Clark and Fisher, 1972).

Research in migration in most developing countries, however,
has followed the same foci as that of the developed nations, namely,
the explanation of migration from demographic, economic and ecologi-
cal points of view. Literature on Africa and Latin America, for in-
stance, reveals the importance and recognition of this problem by
policy makers and planners. But most research conducted in this
part of the world concentrated on only three dimensions of the prob-
lem, namely: (1) the rate and causes of migration; (2) the concentra-
tion in certain centers, and (3) the composition of migrants (charac-
teristics of migrants). The rate of migration might be too high for
both economic and social reasons. Numerous authors (e.g. Eicher gt_
g13, 1970), Byerlee (1974), and Todaro (1971) have noted various price
distortions such as high urban wage rates and low agricultural prices
which act to increase rural-urban income differentials and hence in-
crease migration. Some other researchers have attributed rural-urban
migration to population pressure in the rural areas (McGee, 1971).

The problem created by high rates of migration are compounded
by the concentration of migrants in one or two large cities. As
Hance (1970) notes, most African countries have one "primate" city--
usually the capital--which is also the fastest growing city in the

country.

39

The composition of rural-urban migrants is a further dimension
of the rural-urban migration problem, as the literature reveals.
Rural-urban migrants, on the average, come younger and better edu-
cated than the rural population from which they originate (Elizaga,
1966; Browning and Feindt, 1969; Bock and Iutaka, 1967). In Ibadan,
Nigeria, Callaway (1969) reported that about 70 percent of all
migrants were 15-25 years old. In Kenya, the majority of migrants
were 20-25 (Rempel, 1970). Generally, studies in Africa reveal that
most migrants are young adult males or school leavers (Byerlee, 1974;
Callaway, 1969).

The picture of rural to urban migration in the Arab countries
is not well documented and there is a scarcity of literature due to
the lack of reliable statistical data. The few studies conducted
in some countries of the Arab world, however, reveal that the process
of rural migration is similar to that of Latin America with few
exceptions. Needless to say, these studies also concentrate on
the three dimensions mentioned earlier. Most migrants are attracted
by economic opportunities in the urban centers and oil fields.
Philips (1959) observed that the deterioration of rural conditions
act as the push and the nature and expansion of urban centers as
the pull. In Libya (See Chapter One), Hartley (1972) described the
massive rural migration between 1954 and 1964 as due to the decline
in the agricultural sector and the expansion of the construction in-
dustry in the urban centers as the main causes. These findings, how-
ever, reveal that seeking work or better jobs and wages in urban cen-

ters and the declining of the agricultural sector are the major reasons

40

for rural migration. Other researchers have indicated that population
pressure in rural areas is another explanation for rural-urban migra-
tion. This is true in Lebanon where the population increase in the
rural areas exceeded the availability of land and farm employment
(Tannous, 1942; Khuri, 1967). In Morocco, the most fundamental cause
of rural migration is the poverty and population pressure in the
regions from which most of the migrants are drawn (Blake, 1972).
With respect to the selectivity of migration, studies in Iraq, Lebanon,
and Egypt have shown that younger persons, mostly males, are the most
frequent migrants (Baali, 1966; Khuri, 1967; Abu-Lughod, 1961).
Despite the widespread recognition of rural-urban migration as
a problem in most developing countries, research in this area has
emphasized the role of "push" and "pull" factors, and demonstrated
the dominant position of economic, and social objectives as causes
of migration. 0n the other hand, subjective factors related to migra-
tion have not been recognized, and very little if anything has been
done on the attitudes associated with migration.
It is evident that migration cannot be fully understood solely
from the demographic viewpoint. As Schulze (l960:4) pointed out:
"Man is bound by culturally prescribed limits and subject to attitudes
and goals furnished by his social environment which are not evident
from the study of demographic data alone. To reach an understanding
of migration we must delve deeper than the level of population sta-
tistics. We must explore the impetus to migrate from the attitudinal
frame of reference also."

According to Bogue, migration is a response of human organisms

41

to economic, social (psychological) and demographic forces in the
(social) environment (1969:753). Human beings are motivated to act
to fulfill certain needs or to escape discomfort or pain. It is a
subjective evaluation of the individual about his social environment
that leads him either to migrate or not to migrate rather than the
objective factors of that environment. As long as his wants and his
aspirations are met, an individual will have the tendency to stay in
the same community. Migration, therefore, for Bogue is:

"...either a response to some impelling need that the person

believes he cannot satisfy in his present residence or a

flight from a situation that for some reason has become un-

desirable, unpleasant or intolerable" (1969:753).

The lack of social-psychological "explanations" of migration
has been one of the chief factors in the development of research by
Eicher (1959), Beegle (1957), Goldsmith (1961) and Beegle and Gold-
smith (1962). These authors have dealt with the migration of young
people from rural areas. In doing so, they have used the suggested
frame of reference of the NC-18 report, which consists of a theoreti-
cal framework for the field studies done in the North Central States
and Kentucky, and also the instruments to be used in the field. This
report viewed the phenomenon of migration as:

"an on-going process of decision-making in which satisfactions
with the life in the community of residence are weighed against
the social costs of leaving the community of residence. This
evaluation process occurs in relation to the level of aspirations,

rooted in the value orientation, range of knowledge, and experi-
ence of groups and individuals."

 

 

 

Thus, the report stated that three major variables are related to the
plans of migration among young people, namely: (1) community satisfac-

tions; (2) aspirations; and (3) social costs.

42

‘¥' A major purpose of this study, therefore, is an attempt to
extend the use of the conceptual and operational model used in these
studies and its modification by Hannan (1967), and to test it in a
very different cultural setting. This study, hence, is not a tradi-
tional demographic analysis. Instead it incorporates the sociologi-
cal aspects of an individual's background with psychological reasons
for migrating. Critical questions addressed in this study are: (1)
Are the young people satisfied with their community? Why or why not?
(2) Have they thought of moving? (3) What are their occupational and
educational aspirations? (4) What are their attitudes toward their
community? (5) What are their family obligations? (6) How do they
view the process of migration?

This study thus is an attempt to examine some of the attitudi-
nal factors involved in the decision-making process as related to
migration of young people from areas of constant migration. The
importance of the study is twofold:

(1) By testing the frame of reference used in a completely
different culture will give some insights into its
validity and hence will contribute to its theoretical
and methodological substance.

(2) The findings from this proposed study would be highly
useful in public policy decisions in Libya, as it has
been in the U.S. It would provide evidence in answering
such questions as: should youth be permitted to freely
leave the more remote rural parts of the country--which

is under rapid development--to reside in the burgeoning

43

cities? Should the government devise policies to control
the outward flow of young people? Will the labor market
opportunities match the educational and occupational aspira-
tions and plans of young people? Assuming that many young
people wish to leave for the city, is the current school
curriculum providing the best possible preparation for the
urban environment? What changes should be made in the
school curriculum given the aspirations and plans of young

people?

Theoretical Framework and Relevant Literature

While Sorokin and Zimmerman (1932) must be credited with being

 

e__N___fl_,...—————~—-~—-—~_e~__..fl—~w’~***
among the first to suggest that the subjective evaluations of indivi-
h______fi ____‘___> ‘__##fiffifl,e

l

duals can affect th ' ecisions to migrate, Kiser (1932) was among
V

the first scholars to carry_9ut_a_stugy_§pecifical1y designed to de-

‘termine the extent to which sub t such decisions.

Thomas (1938) attempted to summarize the migration literature up to

 

 

 

 

that time. She made several important contributions in conceptualiz-

ing the place that motivational orientations have in an explanation .

LfliJiELJHIKE§§L4HLJfiqu3fijQfl;_ While her major empirical work was con-

cerned with the imbalance hypothesis, she explicitly stated, however,

 

that to understand the initial motivations that lead individuals to
migrate, one must consider the motives which attract individuals to
new areas, and sources of dissatisfactions which drive them away from
old communities.

The writings of Lively and Taeuber (1939), Webb and Brown (1938)

and Jamiesen (1942) are indicative of the growing awareness among

44

scholars studying migration that comprehensive knowledge about the
motivational orientations is a prerequisite to an adequate under- TE)
standing of the total migration process.

The most useful theoretical approach to the study of the moti-

 

 

 

 

4

N

_vatiggs,Qf_migrgflt§,_hgweveri_was that provided by Lively and

Taeuber (1939) and Williams (1961). Like other authors they recog-
./"‘\— A
nized the fact that while socio-economic conditions are important

 

 

 

 

 

factors affecting migration, they cannot alone account for migration.
These "conditions" are experienced differently and the responses
vary depending on the cultural context. On the basis of empirical
evidence, Lively and Taeuber stated that it is simply not true "that
when problems are sufficiently acute in any area people will move to
some place where living conditions are considered more nearly ade-
quate” (1939:79). They noted: "there are few rural areas so poor
that there are not some people at some time who are willing to live
there" (Lively and Taeuber, 1939:79). In order to understand why

X

not all persons who are exposed to similar objective conditions
- -——-~_____fi.e w_e___.,...~;_—~——w*- a

migrate, they contend_that.it_iscneggssary to consider subjective

ff

 

‘x‘M .v—‘H ’—
W

factors. They stated: .5

The controlling element in the decision whether or not to (i\
move is not the objective reality pg§_se, but the indivi-
dual' 5 subjective evaluation of the var1ous alternatives ///
which he is considering (Ibid: 80).
Because residents of well provided communities may use a wider series
of more advantaged reference groups in evaluating alternatives, such
communities often lose their populations as rapidly or more rapidly
than poorer areas. In the latter case, there is a much narrower

universe of comparison and as a consequence, residents may feel

45

relatively less deprived. Some of the poorest areas are also those
in which there is a tradition of stable residence, of family soli-
darity, of unwillingness to move, and of extremely low regard for
the usual canons of material success (Lively & Taeuber, 1939).
Migration planning, therefore, was viewed as prompted by economic
motives, but as taking place within a socially and culturally de-
fined frame of reference. Other non-economic motives might be im-
portant but occupied a residual position in their discussion (Williams,
1961:301-302). Such approaches to the motives of migrants, however,
were very sketchily developed, and it was not until the 19505 that
more useful models were proposed. At that time a number of authors
proposed motivational models for migration planning, including those
of Eisenstadt (1954) and Beegle §t_gl, (1957). The latter appears
to be the most relevant and fruitful for the present study.
Eisenstadt proposed that plans to leave the community of resi-
dence are dependent on the individual's feelings of "frustration,
of inability to attain some level of aspiration in his original
society where he is unable to gratify all his expectations" (1954:1).
But this motive is not necessarily "a feeling of insecurity and in-
adequacy in every sphere of social life. The immigrant, as has
often been pointed out, may remain attached to his original society
and culture in various ways" (Eisenstadt, l954:2).

’___”,,,__ _“He.
Eisenstadt presented four types of aspirations which may lead

 

 

to an act of migration. They are the following:
(1) A potential migrant may feel that his original society

does not provide him with enough facilities for and

46

possibilities of survival within it. ’"“N\

(2) Migration may be promoted by the feeling that certain
goals, mainly instrumental in nature, cannot be attained
within the institutional structure of his society of
origin.

(3) The migrant may feel that within the old society he can-
not fully gratify his aspirations for solidarity.

(4) The migrant may feel that his society of origin does not
afford him the chance of attaining a worthwhile and sin-
cere pattern of life, or of following out a progressive
social theory (Eisenstadt, 1954:6).

Using essentially the same approach as that of Eisenstadt,
Beegle proposed a specific system of variables to predict migration
planning (1957:2-3). The migration phenomenon hence, "is viewed as
an ongoing process of decision making in which satisfactions with
the life in the community of residence are weighed against the social
cost of leaving the community of residence. The evaluation process
occurs in relation to the level of aspirations, rooted in the value
orientation, range of knowledge, and experience of groups and indi-
viduals" (Report of Procedures Committee NC-18; 1957z2).

Satisfactions result from group and structural ties. Cohesive-
ness with the community which the individuals perceive and/or feel
arises from the patterned relations of those ties (ROPC NC-18;
1957:2-3). The satisfactions may be viewed as the net which binds
to the area individuals who like living there, who are secure, and

integrated. Their meaningful relationships with the community are

47

too important to sever. Conversely, dissatisfaction with the commu-
nity indicates disagreeable or fragmentary group ties. If satisfac-
tion were the only factor, we could assume that high community satis-
faction means preference not to migrate and low community satisfaction,
preference to migrate.

However, satisfactions are only one facet of the ongoing decision-
making process. Aspirations too affect personal satisfaction. Aspira-
tion viewed as desired states or conditions includes desires for
material objects, further education, jobs or places to live. If the
aspirations can be fulfilled within the community they reinforce the
satisfactions with the community (ROPC NC-lB; 1957:2-3), and help
confirm a decision not to migrate. If aspirations are not obtainable
within the community, these wishes may change or influence the satis-
factions or offset them, for if the pull of aspiration is stronger or
more urgent than community satisfaction, migration may result.

The third component of the decision-making process presented by
this framework is an appraisal of the social costs. When individuals
decide to migrate, the affiliations at the community of origin are at
least partially severed and must be replaced at the community of des-
tination. Therefore, migration is viewed as a socially costly pro-
cess. If an individual perceives moving away as an act disturbing
group ties which he cherishes, then the social cost of moving will be
appraised as high. If, on the other hand, he perceives that moving
will release him from groups he dislikes, or if he has few important
group ties, then the perceived social cost of moving may be low. One

who views social costs as high will have less inclination to leave than

48

one who views social costs as low. The third factor can tip the
balance when the other two factors cancel each other out.

Provided with this frame of reference, a subsequent series of
field studies were carried out using these variables to explain and
predict the migration plans of rural adolescents, Schulze (1960);
Cowhig §t_gl, (1960); Goldsmith (1961); Goldsmith and Beegle (1962);
Schulze gt_al, (1963), as well as the plans of rural adults to remain
in the community of origin, Eicher (1960).*

From a structural perspective, Hannan critically reviewed these
studies and pointed out that "the studies simply related variations
in certain attitudinal type variables to variations in plans to
migrate, or to remain in the community of origin. It is apparent
that most of these independent variables are equally demanding of
explanation" (1967:6-7). He contended that "unless (the) variables
used are solidly grounded in structure, they cannot provide a satis-
factory sociological explanation of migration planning. Thus, the
variations in attitudes to the home community are not an adequate
explanation of migration motives, until it is shown how these atti-
tudes are related to different social structural positions of respon-
dents"(Hannan, 1967:6-7).

The present study, therefore, utilizes the Michigan studies by
Beegle and others with the viewpoint of Hannan as the take off point in
developing specific hypotheses which would conform to the Libyan situa-

tion. In so doing, the focus of the study--1ike most of the Michigan

 

*These studies discontinued the use of the variable social
costs as such or incorporated it into other variables.

49

studies--is on the rural migration of adolescents toward the urban
centers, assuming that migration planning can be explained best in
terms of a minimum number of attitudinal variables, and that these
variables should be examined from a structural point of view, that
is, whether these variables vary in predictive importance in any
systematic way among adolescents from different positions in the
community's social structure (Hannan, 1967).

,L An overriding assumption in this study is that the migration

.. \ M
iplanning_orflmigration intent and the decision to migrate are volun-

__—--‘

tary in nature.‘ Hence, the decision is made by the individual and
'ThE-is not migrating with the family in accordance with decisions made
by parents. It is also assumed that parents and many other family
members are remaining on in the home comunity. It is expected,
however, that family expectations, as perceived by the individual
himself, are important factors in the migration decision. Further-
more, the potential migrants have extensive "knowledge" of conditions

in his own community and other communities. It is assumed th t

the decision to migrate results from an evaluation by the potential

_. ___--.-.-_.— —- -—-——--_.-_._..—-—.—-_..-—--

 

 

_,_.—-—"""‘

M...
migrant on the basis of beliefs about the ability of his own and

 

“H ##_‘___r._—-—-——

‘other communities;torsatisfy his asp1f§£19£§;_:lh3:efore, the m1gra-

‘ —v—-—-——_-e_...-

"IE—v-
tion decision can be best understood when viewed from a social

 

 

_-___—.
_..—-——‘-
.____—

 psycho4ogieal-point"of'View, and hence the most useful approach

.—---—"'—

'tBTEHE‘pFEBTEmflis that supplied by Beegle et a1. (1957).

.._. -—-—____~fi_‘

As the study concerns an area which has suffered high rates
of out-migration for the last twenty years, and given the social,
economic changes and political mobilization of the people in

Libya which resulted in the need for professional, skilled and

50

highly trained personnel,which in turn inspired many young people
to seek higher education and consequently to aspire to social
mobility, the migration decision, therefore, can be best under-
stood when viewed from the individual's point of view.

Four independent variables will be examined in predicting and
explaining the migration plans of rural adolescents who have not

yet selected a permanent occupation and a permanent place of resi-
A

dence. These variables are: (1) educational and occupational aspira- ; i‘“

tions; (2) community satisfactions; (3) family obligations; and (4) ?3
community evaluation.

Do these factors vary in predictive importance in any syste-
matic way among adolescents from different positions in the community?
We assume that these variables are structured by the social position
of the individual in the community. Therefore, the influence of
three variables on the independent variables and thereafter on the
migration plans will be examined, namely: (a) cultural orientation
of the individual's family; (b) social status level of the indivi-
dual's family; and (c) the birth order of the individual in the family.

Before discussing the definition of the major independent vari-
ables and their relationship to migration, it is useful at this point
to summarize the present evidence on migration among rural youth.

High school seniors must either make or be prepared to implement
plans which will be of lasting consequences to themselves and to the
society of which they are a part. This is particularly true of the
plans they make concerning the occupations in which they will engage
and the amount and type of additional formal education they will

seek.

51

First, it would appear that migration of young people from
their rural communities after they finish high schools tends to be
the predominant pattern (Blau and Duncan, 1967; Schulze gt_al,, l963;
Hannan, 1967; Bohlen and Nakeley, 1950; Pihlblad and Georgy, l954;

Taves and Coller, 1964). Most of those who leave their home commu-
\___________~_*¥ #___fi_______

 

nity apparently migrate to urban areas_(Andrews and Sardo, 1965;
éiéi’éfiafhahagh:i1957; Leuthold, Farmer and Badenhop, 1967; Schwarz-
weller, 1963; Taves and Coller, l964). Ambitious rural youth eager: y.)
to obtain further education and occupation of higher prestige and E : ,—+€j
aware of the limitations of the local community should anticipate \\

the necessity to migrate in pursuit of these goals (Drabick, 1965:30).~///

Drabick (lBZQ), in a study of the relationship between migration

“flaw-d.—

intention and educational and occupational expectation, stated that
his data showed a greater proportion of students who intended to
migrate expected to engage in further education and in occupations

of higher prestige than those students who did not foresee migration.

 

Drabick further elaborated that:

The student who evidences an expectation of advanced educa-
evement may be considered more ambitious, more
Igggirgns:ofrsocial mobility, th§n_hisMLpeerj_who does not

le-W as high. *Associated'fit'fiflthat \qu
ambitionfimight~beca"percejveg necessity to_migrating from g- .
his.home_communiix,(1970:57: TTT" ‘ ’ (<77\(\y

2:"

-Ivn~his_1924_stud1,_nnahij—alse—fotmd—that~plan§_iq_fliflfate ”0'" the

area 9f_gresent residence among rural high school seniors were
_\a§sociated witbcexpectation of college entry (1974:]7). 7- _

Goldsmith and Beegle (l962); Hannan (1967); Yoesting and Bohlen

 

(1970); Taves and Coller (1964) found that a direct relationship

existed between educational and occupational aspirations and plans

52

to migrate. In a series of studies in Indiana (Olson, 1960;
Geschwind and Ruttan, 1961; Cohen and Schuh, 1963) showed that .. L/
high educational aspiration level among rural youth was found to /'
be strongly related to migration. In a study of rural youth in
Louisiana, it was found that 7 out of every 10 plan to continue
their education and, therefore, plan to migrate (Hernandez, 1969).
“ Community satisfaction as a topic of sociological research can
be traced to Davis' (1945) research on attitudes toward community.
Following Davis' work, Goldsmith (1961), Goldsmith and Beegle (1963),
Schulze gt_gl, (1963) attempted to relate community satisfaction and
the desire to migrate. In this manner, community satisfaction is
often advanced as a possible restraint to both actual migration and
an individual's willingness to move. It was used as a social-
psychological variable that indicates the individual's perception
of capability of his own community to fulfill his ambitions. Low
satisfaction may increase individual's willingness to move, whereas
high satisfaction may increase subjective investment in the community
and may, therefore, discourage migration (Swanson gt_al,, 1979).
Goldsmith and Beegle (1963), Schulze gt_al, (1963) using com-
munity satisfaction as a broad concept, including a variety of sub-
concepts such as satisfaction with physical community, satisfaction
with the social environment of the community, ethnocentrism and
other related factors, found that an inverse relationship existed
between community satisfaction and desire to migrate among high
school seniors. The positive or negative assessment that the indi-

vidual had toward his perceived alternative communities as a place

53

to live helped determine whether or not migration took place.

Other studies that treated conmunity satisfaction and measured
it as a form of community attachment predicting whether or not the
individual would move found an inverse relationship, Jessor (1967);
Kasarda and Janowitz (1974) and Rojeck gt_§l, (1975). Fernandez and
Dillman (1979) in their study tried to associate the actual mobility
rather than the individual expectation of moving and community attach-
ment and found a moderate association in which community attachment
influences mobility. In another instance, Spear (1974), Bach and
Smith (1977) used elaborate personal decision-making models to deter-
mine if community satisfaction acts as an intervening factor between
community attributes and both the intention to migrate and actual
migration. In their longitudinal study of Durham, North Carolina,
Bach and Smith (1977) observe that while high satisfaction does not
appear to influence migration, low satisfaction does.

Using community satisfaction as a "specifying variable" indi-
cating conditions of the relationship between the frustration of
aspiration and migration plans, Hannan, in his study of Irish adoles-
cents, found that those who felt estranged from the local community
planned to migrate irrespective of their belief about their ability
to satisfy their aspirations locally. 0n the other hand, those who
felt that they were highly attached to their local community, the
beliefs about the local fulfillment of aspiration played a stronger
role in migration plans (1967:130-131).

Even where people perceive that their aspirations cannot be

achieved locally, however, other community and family factors may

54

rule out migration. While many studies have overemphasized the in-
fluence of community satisfaction and individual aspirations, family
obligations which necessitate staying and working in the home com- 9
munity, with some exception, have not been given sufficient atten-
tion. Goldsmith (1961), Goldsmith and Beegle (1963) found that
obligations at home have significant importance in determining
migration plans. Such obligations to the family took precedence \ 4
over any personal aspirations. Hannan (1967) also found a strong 3
relationship between family obligations and plans to migrate. He
found that one-third (34%-45%) of those with very slight or no obli-
gations plan to migrate while only (20%-25%) of those with medium
to high obligations plan to migrate. Crawford stated that family
obligations are believed to outweigh possible gains which the poten-
tial migrant may perceive as accruing from a move (1966:294).

Attitude toward the community's social provisions is also a
variable that has received little attention in determining plans
for migration among young people in the United States. On the
other hand, it is overemphasized in studies carried out in Ireland,
as Hannan states (1967:37). Dissatisfaction with such community
provisions as educational and shopping facilities, roads, recreation
and entertainment facilities was found to be related to migration
plans among rural adolescents in Ireland (Hannan, 1967:125).

The extent to which educational and occupational aspirations
are structured by the social context in which the individual lives
is widely documented in the literature. Much of the research on

the mechanisms determining the educational goals and occupational

55

plans of high school students has concentrated upon social factors
influencing achievement motivation. Attention is increasingly
focused on the effects of social environments and contexts (Schwarz-
weller, 1973). A number of studies show a positive correlation be-
tween the youth's levels of educational and occupational aspirations
on one hand and various measures of the social status of the indi-
vidual's family on the other (Willson, 1959, Michael, 1961; Sewell,
1964, Sewell and Armer, 1966). Other studies which showed the effect
of the social and economic status are those of Sewell (1957); Rosen
(1956), Empy (1965); Schwarzweller (1960, 1973); Youmans, 1959); and

Burchinal (1962). These scholars have consistently shown that the

1
‘y jhigher the social economic status of student's family the better

7?. and economic status of the adolescent's family was found to be posi-

K the base he has from which to build a satisfactory career.

The prestige level of father's occupation as a measure of social

g tively associated with the educational and occupational aspirations
E and further with migration plans of high school seniors (Drabick,

' 1965, 1970, 1974; Hannan, 1967; Olson, 1960; Geschwind and Ruttan,

1961; Cohen and Schuh, 1963).

Cultural background of the individual's family is another fac-
tor which is believed to affect educational and occupational aspira-
tions and migration of high school seniors. Hannan (1967)
found a strong relationship between cultural orientation on one

hand and occupational and educational aspirations on the other.

56

The Major Independent Variables and Their
Relationship to Migration

 

Three variables are proposed by Beegle gt_al, as factors re-
lated to migration plans. One of the major factors in migration plan—
ning is community satisfactions, defined as "feelings of cohesiveness
and security rooted in identification with groups and structures"
(1957:2). When satisfaction is high, it increases residential sta-

bility. The second variable is social costs which refers to the root-

 

lessness that attends migration and which results from the severance
of group ties and some patterned relationships. The third variable,

aspirations, refers to the future, largely instrumental goals which

 

are desired. In the decision-making process, satisfactions with life
in the community of residence are weighed against the social costs of
moving elsewhere. This evaluation takes place in relation to the level
of aspiration sought. If aspirations are such that they may be ful-
filled locally, they would be expected to weaken satisfactions and
reduce social costs attending migration (Beegle, 1959).

In this and other studies, community satisfactions was maintained
as one of the major independent variables, but it came to assume a mean-
ing different from the original usage. Here, however, community satis-
faction will be broader than Beegle's definition, and will include feel-
ings of liking or disliking of the home conmunity. Such feelings are
hypothesized to spring from attachments to or rejection of one's particu-
laristic relationships, gr_the style of structure of relationships in the
local community. That is, an evaluation of the satisfactoriness of one's

family and other primary and secondary group relationships, as well

57

as the structural forms that these relationships take. High satis-
faction would arise from having a highly positive evaluation of these
relationships and structures, while low satisfaction would result
from a history of unsatisfactory personal relationships, or a low
evaluation of the structural forms that these relationships take.

The latter would result from differences in values between respon-
dents and most community members. However, using this definition

of community satisfaction, the suggestion provided by Hannan (1967)
also will be taken into consideration. He critically reviewed the
definition and pointed out the fact that the conceptualization of

the variable as a summary evaluative attitude toward the community
has been too remote from a structural orientation. Hannan suggested
if community satisfaction maintains its definition which is provided
above and as evaluation of local community structures in terms of
traditional vs. modern, it becomes more explicit and more sociologi-
cally relevant (1967:20).

This distinction, however, leads to treatment of community satis-
faction as two variables, one which views it as a composite measure
of the attachment to local particularistic relations; the other is
what we will call satisfactions with community social provisions,
such as educational facilities, roads, shopping facilities etc.

Aspiration level in Goldsmith's study was operationally ex-
pressed as two variables. The first, specification level, referred
to the extent to which respondents feel that their occupational and
"way of life" aspirations could be satisfied in their home communi-
ties (1961:ll). The second, obligations, referred to the extent to

which respondents felt that their post-high school education plans

58

could be achieved in the local community. If they had no further edu-
cational plans, it referred to the extent to which they felt that
their home community would be "a good place" in which their occupa-
tional aspirations could be fulfilled. Alternatively, it referred

to the extent to which they considered the home community to be "a
good place" to find someone "they would like to marry" (Goldsmith,
1961:114-117).

Pursuing further education and reaching desired occupation, as
used in Goldsmith and other studies, are considered here to be impor-
tant variables. These aspirations are socially defined, socially
structured, and socially sanctioned by group members for adolescents
who occupy different positions in the social structure.

The great majority of studies on the motivations of adolescent
rural migrants show instrumental aspirations to be more predictive
of migration plans than any other variable. Other studies in this
area demonstrate the overriding importance of economic, educational
and social mobility aspirations in migration planning. Educational
aspirations generally refers to plans to pursue further education
beyond high school in particular and attending college on the part
of high school seniors is believed to be very important under Libyan
conditions.

Given the social and economic changes that Libya is going
through, discussed earlier in Chapter I, it is expected that instru-
mental aspirations such as educational and occupational aspira-
tions, will be more predictive of migration plans than such non-
instrumental variables such as community satisfaction and satisfac-

tions with the community social provisions.

59

Up to this point, certain instrumental aspirations which have
been referred to as "desired future conditions or situations" are
proposed to be the major variables affecting decision to migrate.

If respondents think that such aspirations cannot adequately be
satisfied locally, they will tend to migrate elsewhere to satisfy
their aspirations. Conversely, if their aspirations are attainable
within the community, they will tend to stay. But certain non-
instrumental variables, notably community satisfaction, which is
taken to measure both the degree of attachment to local particular-
istic relations as well as an evaluation of the satisfactoriness of
local community social provisions, will determine the migration de-
cision.

Community satisfaction, hence, will be used as a specifying
variable indicating conditions under which the respondent's aspira-
tions and migration plans are related. When respondents are dissatis-
fied with their community, they will plan to migrate irrespective of
their ability to satisfy their aspirations locally. On the other
hand, when they are highly attached to their community, the ability
of the local area to fulfill aspirations plays a crucial role in
migration. In other words, for those who are highly attached to
their home community relations, such attachments do not necessarily
lead to plans to stay, if aspirations cannot be fulfilled locally.

In regard to the evaluation of the local community's structures
and their role in the decision of migration, it is proposed that where
aspirations can be satisfied, dissatisfaction with such community struc-

tures as educational and shopping facilities, roads, recreation and

6O

entertainment facilities, for example, may be sufficient to bring about
migration to places where these facilities are better provided. But

it is expected here that the instrumental factors should account for
most of the variations. It is expected that if the effects of occu-
pational and educational aspirations are controlled, the evaluation

of or attitude toward the community's social provisions will have

very low correlation with migration plans.

While individual's aspirations might necessitate migration if
these aspirations cannot be fulfilled locally, individual and family
factors may rule out migration. Family obligations as a non-
instrumental variable are also expected to outweigh any personal
gains which the adolescent may perceive accruing from a move. It
is expected that in the case of those adolescents who have high
obligations toward their families, such aspirations would be less
predictive of migration plans than primary role obligations to the
bfamily that necessitate staying at home. Such obligations would

~§fhnclude binding expectations on family members to stay and help out
in household matters. It is likely to be highly important in Libya
where rural family structure in particular is more patriarchal and
the father has much greater control over family members. For adoles-
cents who have high family obligations, it is expected that the re-
lationship between such individual aspirations and migration will
fnot hold true. It is hypothesized, however, that family obligations

\,1will take precedence over personal aspirations in determining

migration.

61

As indicated above, it is expected that educational and occu-
pational aspirations are closely related to plans to migrate. It is
expected that the higher the level of occupational and educational
aspirations, the greater the proportion of respondents who believe
their occupational and educational aspirations cannot be fulfilled
locally and plan to migrate. However, the level of these aspirations
is expected to be influenced by three intervening variables. The
first is the social status of the respondent's family in which aspi-
ration level is expected to be closely related to the family's social
status; the second is the cultural orientation of the respondent's
family. The variation in the cultural orientation of the individual's
family, whether of traditional, non-materialistic orientation or of
a modern, urbanized orientation, is expected to account for the vari-
ation of the aspiration levels among adolescents. However, since
education is free in Libya for all citizens, the expected influence
of these two variables was not taken from a stratification point of
view; rather, the idea of how the respondent's family values educa-
tion and views the occupational structure will in turn influence the
individual's level of aspirations. The third intervening variable
which is expected to influence the level of aspirations is the indi-
vidual's birth order. It is expected that an inverse relationship
will be found to exist between the level of educational and occupa—
tional aspirations and the birth order of the respondent. Those
who are the oldest are expected to be more likely to discontinue
their education after high school and help to support their

families.

62

Definition of Major Variables and
Hypotheses to be Tested

 

 

1. Educational and Occupational Aspirations

 

These aspirations refer to the quality and quantity of educa-
tion aspired to and the ranking or level of occupation desired. The
educational aspirations are ascertained on the basis of the subject's
response to a question as to the type and amount of further education
desired (beyond high school graduation) which will be classified and
ordered into a four category scale ranging from high to low educational
aspirations.

The occupational aspirations will be determined in a similar
fashion. The responses to the following two questions will be used:
(1) ideal occupational choice (aspired); and (2) realistic occupa-
tional choice (expected). These responses are then ordered on a scale
developed to measure relative prestige status in the area under inves-
tigation. The scale ranges from (1) the highest status to which the
respondents aspired; and (2) the lowest status group to which the

respondents aspired.

2. Community Satisfactions

 

Community satisfaction refers to the extent to which the respon-
dent's concrete situation is perceived by him as satisfactory or un-
satisfactory. In other words, it refers to the level of attachment
of the individual to his home community as measured by his evaluation--
negative or positive--of his primary relationships (Goldsmith and
Beegle, 1962; Hannan, 1967).

This will be measured by using a substantial modification of

63

the Schulze §t_al, (1963); Hannan (1967); and the Vernon Davis scale
(1945) items. These changes are necessitated by the differences in

the cultural environment.

3. Community Social Provisions Evaluation

This evaluation refers to the student's assessment of the
adequacy of his local community's facilities such as schools, libra-
ries, roads, etc. This assessment may range from positive to negative.
As in the case of community satisfactions, this variable will be
measured by a scale consisting of certain facilities and institutions

present in the community and other nearby communities.

4. Family Obligations

 

Family obligations refer to the student's assessment of the
level of obligations that he has toward his family. It ranges from
high obligations, those obligations that have to be carried out by
the student only if he remains in the home community, to low obliga-
tions, those which do not require his presence in the home community

in that someone else could take over these obligations.

5. Migration Plans

 

Migration plans refer to the respondent's intentions to migrate
or remain in the home community. His intentions range from a firm

intention to migrate to a definite intention to stay.

Hypotheses:

A. Relationship between independent and dependent variables.
Hypothesis 1: A direct relationship exists between educational

aspirations and plans to migrate.

Hypothesis 2:

Hypothesis 3:

Hypothesis 4:

Hypothesis 5:

64

A direct relationship exists between occupational
aspirations and plans to migrate.

An inverse relationship exists between community
satisfaction and plans to migrate.

An inverse relationship exists between community
evaluation and plans to migrate.

An inverse relationship exists between family

obligation and plans to migrate.

B. The relative predictiveness of the independent variables.

Hypothesis 6:

Hypothesis 7:

Hypothesis 8:

Hypothesis 9:

Hypothesis 10:

The instrumental variables (educational and occupa-
tional aspirations) will be more highly related to
migration than will any of the other variables.
Controlling for the levels of community satisfaction,
the lower the level of satisfaction, the less predic-
tive are the educational and occupational aspirations
on the part of those who plan to migrate.

Controlling for the levels of family obligations, the
higher the level of family obligations, the less
predictive are educational and occupational aspira-
tions on the part of those who plan to migrate.
Controlling for the levels of satisfactoriness with
the community social provisions, the less predictive
are educational and occupational aspirations on the
part of those who plan to migrate.

The total proportion of migration plans explained by

low levels of community satisfaction (those who plan

Hypothesis ll:

Hypothesis 12:

C. Structural

variables.

65

to migrate irrespective of other factors) and by high
levels of family obligations (those who plan to stay
irrespective of other factors) will be considerably
less than that explained by the educational and occu-
pational aspirations.

Educational aspirations will be directly related to
occupational aspirations.

The higher the level of occupational aspirations, the
higher the level of educational aspirations and,

therefore, the greater the tendency to plan to migrate.

(intervening) variables influence on the independent

(1) Cultural orientation of the respondent's families.

Hypothesis 13:

Youth from traditional families as compared to those

from "modern" families will exhibit:

(a) lower levels of educational and occupational
aspirations,

(b) higher levels of community satisfaction and
community evaluation,

(c) as a result of these differences, a much lower

proportion will plan to migrate.

(2) Social status of the respondent's families.

Hypothesis 14:

The educational and occupational aspirations will be
influenced by the social status of the respondent's
families. They will be directly related to the

social status level of adolescent's families.

66

(3) Respondent's birth order.
Hypothesis 15: The educational and occupational aspirations will be
influenced by the birth order of the respondents;
they will be inversely related to the birth order

of the individual in the family.

CHAPTER III

RESEARCH METHODS AND PROCEDURES

This chapter deals with issues concerning the operationaliza-
tion of this study. It includes a description of the area in which
the study was conducted, how the test population was selected, and
a description of the field work. In addition, this chapter treats
the operationalization of the major research variables and a descrip-
tion of the analytical techniques to be used in the analysis of the

data.

Description of Jabal Nafusah Area

 

For more than 200 miles along the Mediterranean coast coastal
oases alternate with sandy areas and lagoons. Inland from this
area lies the Jefara Plain, a triangular area of some 6,000 square
miles. Approximately 80 miles from the coast the plain abruptly
ends at an escarpment that rises to form the 200 mile-long Jabal
Nafusah, a plateau ranging from 2,000 to 3,000 feet in elevation.
These heights which mark the southern boundary of Libya's Western
Region are a part of the Atlas Mountain range (See Fig. 1). But
actually they constitute a distinct physical feature, for the Atlas
Mountains terminate at the Tunisian Border. Here and there in the
Jabal mountain evidences of former volcanic craters and sheets of

lava may be found. The mountain has several local names such as

67

68

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sawsm

 

 

 

 

 

ELEM

 

 

, .neaex s
C .
-1 l- n. .
-. .u .. 2......“ -7 \......
. . ...aa (awzwemcam

a/Qv. 1; .-
o . o u. 1...“ ..U. “NH-NW“.-

o o...‘

3%. kuwknuawsfimxx.

 

 

 

 

/’

 

«gnaw.

1.12..)
VI
n o7
- oldo/
. ..

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

z 1%

. s 4", ~\
(I. r‘ 0.9V .r
a ,.r-1\
1

«.3 .\...
lb . «N.

a. no on non-f
I

.7 u

. . ....,,..\
.so no.
Q.

nf

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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.3“.

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«ESQ.

 

 

Show;

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

69

the Gharian Range or Gharian Mountain, but geographically speaking,
it is alluded to merely as the Jabal Nafusah. However, the adminis-
trative name according to the 1973 classification is known as Gharian
Province.

As depicted in Figure 2, the province lies due south of Tripoli.
Gharian, the provincial administrative and commercial center, is
located about 80 miles from Tripoli and is reached by a modern high-
way which penetrates the mountain and stretches to the oasis of
Ghadames in the southwest. The Gharian province is reputed to con-
sist of 110 villages and had a population of about 154,297 according
to the 1973 census. Approximately 5 percent of the households were
classified as nomadic and semi-nomadic in 1973 as compared to 25 and
42 percent in the 1964 and 1954 censuses, respectively.

The economy of the region has struck a balance between farming
and pastoralism. A shifting between these two activities was neces-
sary in order to integrate fully the resources of the area. Further-
more, agriculture and herding are determined by the distribution of
the rainfall which varies in the province from 330 millimeters around
Gharian to less than 100 millimeters around Nalut. The main agricul-
tural crops grown in the region are barley, wheat, olives and Mediter—
ranean fruits. These are combined with sheep and goat husbandry.

Traditionally, the agricultural year begins in September with
the harvesting of olives. In October, barley and wheat are sown in
selected plots and the harvest season starts in April for the cereals.
Figs are harvested in July and almonds are harvested in mid-September.

This was the way of life for many years until it was disrupted by

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~....J’/ /
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. ..N ..r. .1 .././c
......4....w .. ..\
. .... .. ..u. .. . «b
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l - 0. Io-
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71

modernization and development brought about by the oil wealth in the
mid 19605. As a result, masses of people in the province took refuge
in the government bureaucracy or moved toward the urban centers.
Agriculture and herding, however, still are the main activities in
the region. There is no industry and since 1969 emphasis has been
placed on agriculture. The main agricultural projects in the area
are those of A1 Haie and Allathel Valley, in which 35,000 hectares
were targeted for reclamation. This land was to be divided into
farms of 25 hectares each for the settlement of the nomads and semi-

nomads in the region.

Population Structure

 

In 1973 the population of the province was primarily rural.
Out of the 154,297 inhabitants almost 84 percent were rural and the
only urban center is the town of Gharian with a population of 7,451.
The population of the 110 small villages and localities which consti-
tute the province ranges between 500 and 5,000. Over half of the
villages have a population ranging between 1,000 to 2,000. Further-
more, 24 percent and 11 percent have populations ranging from 500
to 1,000 and less than 500, respectively.

With respect to age, sex and educational attainment, the pro-
vince had higher proportions of young people (under 15 years of age)
and of aged persons (65 years of age and over) in 1973 than in 1964.
The proportion of persons 15 or less increased from 45 percent in
1964 to 52.1 in 1973, while the percentage of those 65 and over
advanced from 6.8 to 9.0 percent during the same period. Persons in

the economically productive age (persons between 15-35 years of age)

72

had decreased from 28.6 to 23 percent between 1964 and 1973.

The sex ratio of the region was slightly lower than that of the
whole country in 1973, or 105 as compared to 106 males per 100 females,
respectively. In contrast, the sex ratio was identical for the region
and the whole country, in 1964, or 108 males per 100 females.

Table 9 presents school enrollment by sex in the province for
1964 and 1973. It reveals that there was a great improvement in
educational participation, especially among males. Overall, the
number of males at all levels increased from 17,781 in 1964 to 27,412
in 1973, whereas the number of females at all levels advanced from
3,229 to 13,633 for the same period. While only .03 percent out of
the total student population attending secondary school in 1964 were
females, the percentage increased to .76 percent in 1973. The per-
centage of males attending secondary school, on the other hand, in-
creased from 3.1 to 4.2 percent or from 668 in 1964 to 1,816 in
1973.

The 1973 census reveals that the region experienced the
highest rate of out-migration in the entire country since 1964
(See Table 10). The number of migrants amounted to 63,000 persons
and as Table 11 indicates, the major movement of these people was
toward Tripoli, the capital city. Lesser migration streams went
to Benghazi, to Zawia about 30 miles from Tripoli, and to Sebha in
the south. About 87 percent resided in Tripoli whereas only 4 per-
cent resided in Benghazi.

The major reasons for selecting the area just described in

which to carry out this study may be summed as follows:

73

 

 

 

 

 

Table 9
Educational enrollment for Gharian province
1964-1973
YEAR - SEX
LEVEL OF
ATTENDANCE 1964 1973
M F M F

Primary 14,492 3,140 19,361 12,416
Preparatory 2,452 82 5,650 891
Secondary 668 7 1,816 313
University 169 - 585 12
Total 17,781 3,229 27,412 13,633

 

*Source: Compiled from 1964 and 1973 Censuses.

(1) The area is completely rural, with only one urban place
which serves the province as an administrative and market
center.

(2) Agriculture and pastoralism are the dominant industries
and the province is not subject to rapid urbanization in
comparison to the other provinces in Libya.

(3) The province registered the highest rate of net out-
migration (40.5 percent) and this rate was especially

high among young people.

74

Table 10

Net and Gross migration for the ten provinces
of Libya,1964-l973

 

r 7

 

Rate of Net Rate of Gross
Province Migration Migration
Derna - 5.5 23.7
Gibal Akhdar + .6 27.6
Benghazi +16.5 28.6
U-wwkm -»93 234
Misurata -16.1 22.8
Homs -32.5 35.8
Tripoli +19.2 28.7
Zawia - .8 24.2
Gharian -40.5 43.8
Sebha - 4.0 16.6

Source: Census and Statistical Department, 1979: 65.

Table 11

Volume and direction of migration
out of Gharian province,

 

 

1964-1973
N % From To
52,377 87.3 Gharian Tripoli City
4,151 6.9 Gharian Zawia
2,337 3.9 Gharian Benghazi
1,134 1.9 Gharian Sebha

Source: Census and Statistical Department, 1979: 55.

75

The Test Population

 

The main focus of this study, as indicated earlier, is the in-
vestigation of the migration decision-making among rural youth in
Libya who had not yet taken up a permanent adult occupation. High
School seniors enrolled in the spring of 1981 in the Gharian Area,
therefore, were suitable as the test population. These young people
are at the stage in the life cycle to become highly involved in
occupational and migration decision-making.

In order to obtain a complete enumeration of all adolescents
in the area, the author obtained a list of all schools, principals
and students living in the province from the Department of Statistics
in the Secretary of Education in Tripoli. Based on this information,
exploratory field work was conducted in the spring of 1981 and a
comprehensive survey of the High Schools was carried out. First, a
letter from Al Fateh University explaining the importance of the
study was obtained to facilitate cooperation in the field work.

Upon receipt of this letter the educational authorities in the area
were contacted and they agreed to give assistance to the survey.
Later the six schools were visited and the research purpose was
explained to the principals and teachers who offered their coopera-
tion.

As a result, all seniors in the five High Schools in the Gharian

1

’ Province constituted the test population. Of the 733 students

 

1The high school located in the Zentan village was excluded
since it did not have a senior class in 1981. Also about 93 seniors
who resided in the Gharian town were excluded since it resembles
somewhat an urban center in terms of the size of its population
and the services it provides.

76

registered in the senior classes, 503 or 68.6 percent completed
schedules for this study. The remaining 31.4 percent who did not
participate consists of those who had exam obligations, the majority

of whom were from the school located in the town of Gharian.

InterviewingiRespondents

 

During the exploratory field work two schools were selected
for the pre-test of the instrument, one in the vicinity of the town
of Gharian and the other in the village of Mizda. The instrument
used for data collection was designed as an administered question-
naire. The first version was constructed in English and drew upon
previous research, especially that of Goldsmith and Beegle (1962),
Schwarzweller (1974) and Hannan (1967). Extensive modifications
were made to fit the Libyan conditions.

The English version of the questionnaire was translated into
Arabic by the author which was then given to a colleague at Al Fateh
University to be translated back into English. Finally, this ver-
sion was translated back into Arabic by different colleagues from
the same university. These steps were very important to insure
that the meaning of the words, phrases and questions did not lose
their meaning in the translation process.

The four versions of the instrument were compared for consis-
tency, and a few changes were made which resulted in the final in-
strument to be used. Two series of pre-tests were carried out for
the final Arabic version with a sample of 25 respondents from Gharian,
and then using the initially revised form, with 17 respondents in

another school in the village of Mizda. Some revisions were made as

77

a result of the first pre-test and the final form of the schedule
was prepared, with a few corrections resulting from the second pre-
test.

All the schools included in the study at this point were famil-
iar with the study and they were visited again to set a time for the
interviews with the students. This step, however, was the most prob-
lematic one in some schools since it was agreed at an early stage of
the research with some teachers that in order to obtain full coopera-
tion of the students the interviews should not be conducted during
their free time but rather during regular classes. The plan was not
agreed to by a few teachers who refused to volunteer their class time
for the interview. In these few cases a callback was necessary and
appointments were made with other teachers to conduct the interviews.

Due to the scarcity of trained interviewers on one hand and to
the sophisticated nature of the schedule on the other, the author
conducted and supervised all the field work to assure standardization
and to avoid any misinterpretation of the questions by the students.
In so doing, the writer was present with the teacher at the time the
schedule was distributed. An orientation was given to the class about
the study and its importance to their local communities and the coun-
try as a whole. A brief description of the questionnaire was then
made, and questions were answered whenever the students faced diffi-
culties in understanding the question.

The instrument took approximately ninety minutes to complete.
(See Appendix A for the questionnaire used.) Information was obtained

from each student covering the following broad areas:

(1)

(3)
(4)

(7)
(8)

78

General demographic, social and economic background data
on the student and his family.

The student's migration intentions and reasons given for
migrating if thinking of doing so.

The student's level of community satisfaction.

The student's specifications of an ideal community.

The extent to which a student believes his specifications
for an ideal community can be met in his community of
residence.

The student's attitude toward his community's social pro-
visions.

The family obligations of the student.

The cultural orientation of the student's family.

The student's educational and occupational aspirations,
and the extent to which he believes that these aspira-

tions can be fulfilled locally.

Procedures for Operationalizing Main Variables

 

As pointed out earlier, the instrument used in this study was

designed to obtain information from High School seniors about their

migration intentions. The questions in the questionnaire were con-

structed to measure the major variables and where applicable scaling

techniques were used. The procedures used to operationalize the

major variables are outlined in the following pages.

(1)

Dependent Variable: Migration Intention
A single straightforward question is employed in the

schedule to measure this variable. The students'

 

(2)

79

intention to migrate or to stay in the home community are

determined from responses to Question 32 which reads ...

 

"How definite are you about intending staying or moving
from your community after graduation?"

a. Definite intention to move ( )

b. Indefinite whether to move or stay ( )

c. Definite intention to stay ( )

Independent Variables

 

(A) Educational Aspirational Level

 

The aspirations were determined by a single question
with fixed alternatives. The responses to this Question
53 on the type and amount of further education aspired to
beyond High School were classified and ordered into a four-
category scale which placed each student's educational
aspirations along a four-category scale from high to low
educational aspirations.

Students are considered as planning to go on for addi-
tional training after High School if they respond "Yes"
to Question 53, and designate what type of training they
intend to obtain. All other students are considered as
not planning to go on for further education. The type
of training that students intend to obtain is determined
from the following:

a. ) College? Where?

(
b. (
(
(

 

Trade school? If so, where?

 

)
) Vocational school? If so, where?
)

Other, what and where?

 

80

(B) Occupational Aspiration Level

 

To measure this variable, each respondent was cate—
gorized on the basis of a series of three questions sim-
ilar to those used by Sewell and Haller (1963:25) which
range from an idealistic to a realistic choice. These
questions are the following:

Question 50

 

"If you could have any occupation you wanted, regard-
less of location or the amount of training or exper-

ience required, what occupation would you choose?

 

Question 51

 

"What kind of occupation(s) are you now seriously
considering as a life-time work?

a. First choice

 

b. Second choice ."

 

Question 52

 

"What is the first occupation that you think you
will get? ."

 

These occupational choices were then ranked in terms
of the occupational rating scale developed by the author
(See Appendix B for details of the scale construction).
This resulted in the assignment of the occupation aspired
to by the student to two ordinal occupational categories
as follows: (1) the highest status group - high occupa-
tional aspirations and (2) the lowest status group - low

occupational aspirations.

81

The final scale used to measure the level of occupa-
tional aspirations includes 15 occupations, the most
prestigious of which was "Engineer" and the least pres-
tigious was "Technician." Below is the code and score

resulting from scalegram analysis:

2mg 520:2
High 0 33
1 64
2 40
3 38
4 32
5 39
6 41
7 53
8 26
9 21
10 23
11 25
12 19
13 15
14 23
Low __31_ _lj__
Total 503

(C) Community Satisfaction
In Operationalizing the dimension of community satis-

faction, the scale items of the Michigan studies and the

Question 33

82

Vernon Davies (1945) scale items were utilized, with con-
considerable modification to fit the Libyan situation.
Eleven items were initially used in the schedule. Nine
items were retained later for the final analysis since
they gave high item variability. The eleven items are
given below.

Strongly Strongly
Agree Agree Undecided Disagree Disagree

 

a.

I am 100
ward to

 

king for- ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )

leaving

this community

. Any youn

looking
nition a
experien

9 people ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )

for recog—
nd new
ces

should leave this
community

. Not much

said of

can be ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
th1s

community, its

size, lo

cation

and climate

. No one s

eems to ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )

care how young
people get on in
this community

. It is di

for the
get toge
anything

. There is

bickerin
people i

fficult ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
people to
ther on

too much ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )

9 among
n this

community

not too

. The futu

. This community is ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )

bad really
re of this ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )

community looks

bright

83

 

 

Strongly Strongly
Agree Agree Undecided Disagree Disagree
i. The people of this ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
community are very
friendly and help-
ful to one another
j. This community is ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
a good place to
live in
k. I am very eager to ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )

spend my life in

this community, if

I can at all.
An item analysis of the responses was carried out on 503
respondents using the correlation coefficient technique
discussed by Green (1954) and Shaw and Wright (1967:24).
First, the eleven items were divided into negative items
and positive items. For the first six items of the scale,
responses of "Agree" or "Strongly Agree" were each scored
as (0), responses of "Disagree" and "Strongly Disagree"
were each scored (1). For the remaining positively worded

items (items 9 to k) the scoring is reversed. Responses

of " Undecided" were coded as (0).

. L. .. w....n.-4—....~_
%W«AM "

Item scorea were the" certsletee with Eefie1H§92r9.1tbe ;>
sum of item scores), and items that correlated highly with ‘\\ :3
Ehe total score were Ehsn...se.1e9ted for. the. ..fine_1....s_.c_aleg .4

.. ,.a .ML-

The least discriminatory and those with weakest_correlation
.1€EH“€Hé 511'." of 13905 were items b.end e;

To confirm that these two items had to be excluded from
the scale, a test of reliability using Cronbach's Alpha and

Standardized Alpha was conducted. This in turn would test

84

the uni-dimensionality of the scale and how well the items
were related. Below is the formula used to carry out this

step:

o€= KV/r
S l+(K+l)-F

 

where K is number of items, and Eris the average correla-
tion between items.

Subsequently, three separate tests of reliability were
carried out. The first test with inclusion of the eleven
items gave Cronbach's alpha value of .82 and standardized
item alpha of .81. The value of alpha, however, increased
when item (b) was dropped out from the test to reach .82
for the standardized one but remained almost the same for
Cronbach's alpha. When item (c) was excluded, standardized
alpha reached almost .83. This, however, confirmed the
earlier findings that items b and c were the least discrim-
inatory.*

The remaining nine items then were accepted as a uni-
dimensional scale, and the nine items were found to dis-
criminate between the top and bottom quartiles. The scale
was then used to measure the community satisfaction variable

and it was scored from 0 to 9, from high to low satisfaction.

(0) Attitude Toward the Community Social Provisions

 

This was operationalized by utilizing a modified ver-

sion of the Hannan scale items designed in a fashion similar

 

*The values of alpha obtained here are somewhat less than the
desired standard (.90). These values, however, were accepted for the
purpose of this study and were considered satisfactory.

85

to scale used to measure community satisfaction. The scale
consisted of 10 items representing 10 separate institutions,
social facilities and community services. An item analysis
was carried out in which the item scores were correlated
with the total score (the sum of item scores). The scoring
was similar to the previous score except that this scale
had no negative items. The Likert's categories, therefore,
were coded by assigning (l) to "StronglyAgree" and "Agree"
and (O) to "Disagree" and "Strongly Disagree." The "Unde-
cided" category was scored (0). Item(a)was excluded which
had a very weak correlation (r = .38) and did not seem to
differentiate between the respondents. Hence, the resulting
scale had nine items.

A reliability test was also carried out to confirm that
the items were well related, consistent and constituted a
unidimension scale. The Cronbach and standardized alpha
values for the nine items were .86 and .87, respectively.
The scale was scored from 0 to 9; it ranges from positive
to negative evaluation of the community social provisions.
The ten items used for the construction of this scale are

given below.

 

 

 

Strongly Strongly
Question 34 Agree Agree Undecided Disagree Disagree
a. A place that is ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
nearer a big
town than the
one you live in
b. A place that has ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )

better roads than

the one you now
l1ve in

O

86

 

 

Strongly Strongly
Agree Agree Undecided Disagree Disagree
. A place that has ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )

better primary and
preparatory schools
than the one you
now live in

. A place which is ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
nearer to libraries,

secondary and other

institutions

. A place which allows( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
me to enjoy my time

off better than my

home community

. A place where a ( ) ( ) ( 1 ( ) ( )
person would not

have to go so far

to enjoy sports

events, enter-

tainment like

movies and musi-

cal events

. A place that has ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
better facilities

for games than this

one has

. A place where ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
people showed more

interest in com-
munity work, orga-
nized clubs and
teams for young
people to play and
enjoy themselves

'. A place where there ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )

would be more young
people to spend
spare time and
organize games with

'. A place that is ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )

nearer to shops and
good shopping facili-
ties than the one
you live in

87

(E) Family Obligations

 

In Operationalizing this variable a sequence of three

questions were submitted to the student, Questions 42, 43,

44:

Question 42

 

Do you help out your family, or some other relation in

any way?
( ) Yes
()No

If "Yes," please give details of what you do:

 

 

Question 43

 

Do you think that your family, or some other relation
depends on your help to any extent?

( ) Yes

( ) No
If "Yes," how much:

( ) A great deal

( ) Somewhat
( ) Undecided
( ) Not very much

Question 44

 

Now, if you were to leave your community and home, could

somebody else do the work that you are doing for them?

88

Yes, very easily

)
) Yes, somewhat easily
) I don't know

)

No, not very easily

(
(
(
(
(

) Not except with difficulties

Responses then were categorised in the following manner:

a.

No Obligations: (1) if the student answered "No"

 

to Question 42 or (2) answered "Yes" to the same
question, but the type of obligation as detailed by
him did not require him to remain at home to ful-
fill them.

Slight Obligations: (1) if respondent answered

 

”Yes" to Question 42 and beside going to school he
does some work at home in the evening or in his
spare time, also (2) his family does depend on him
"somewhat" or "not very much" (Question 43) and

(3) somebody else could carry out these obligations
"very easily" (Question 44).

Medium Obligations: (1) if answered "Yes" to Ques-

 

tion 42, and works evening with the family while
going to school during the day and (2) family de-
pends on his help "a great deal" or "somewhat"
(Question 43), (3) but could not be replaced
"very easily" (Question 44).

High Obligations: (1) if answered "Yes" to Ques-

 

tion 42, and carries a great deal of responsibilities

89

at home, and (2) family depends on him a "great
deal" (Question 43), and could not be replaced

"except with difficulties" (Question 44).

(F) The Cultural Orientation of the Respondent's Family

A scale composed of 18 items similar to that of Sewell
(1943) was believed by the researcher who grew up in the area
studied to be useful in distinguishing between families
from different cultural orientations. In the pre-test
procedures this was proven to be true. These items, there-
fore, were introduced to the respondents in the schedule.
They are found in Appendix A, Questions 26, 27, 28.

In the process of item analysis, however, some of the
items did not discriminate between the families. For in-
stance, the item concerning father's membership in trade
unions (Question 28) was not discriminating, since only 33
percent indicated membership, and it has a very weak cor-
relation with the sum of item scores (r = .14). Other items
which were excluded from the scale were e, f, g, k, l and
item a, b Question 27. These items range from those that
are accessible to every family to those that are not avail-
able in most of the sections of the area, such as telephone
service and reading media.

Ten items were proven to constitute a reasonable uni-
dimensional scale as a determinant of the cultural orienta-

tion of the family. These items were found to discriminate

a...

...s'a.‘

90

between the top and the bottom quartiles. The scale was
scored from 0 to 10 (from traditional to modern) and the
reliability test revealed that the items were very consis-
tent with alpha values of .85 and .86, Cronbach's and
Standardized,respectively.

(6) Position of Respondent in the Family Cycle

 

This was measured by using two questions in sequence,
Question 20, 21, where the student was asked to give the
number of his older and younger siblings. In operationaliz-
ing the birth order of the respondents, three categories
were used: the oldest child in the family, the second old-
est, and the third or higher orders.

(H) Respondent's Family Social Status

This was operationalized by classifying respondents by
the occupational status level of their families. Question 9
asked the students to indicate their father's main occupa-
tion. These in turn were assigned the 1973 census continuum
classification of occupations. Consequently, the occupations

were classified into five groups.

Method of Analysis

 

The use of bivariate and multivariate contingency tables will be
employed in an attempt to put the data collected into a format neces-
sary to validate the hypotheses stated in this study. This technique
is the most appropriate one that would produce approximately equivalent
information to that of analysis of variance. Analysis of variance can-

not be employed here due to the level of measurement established for

91

the independent variables (ordinal and nominal) and for the dependent
variable (migration plans) ordinal.

The strength of the relationship between the independent variables
and the dependent variables will be measured by Goodman and Kruskal's
Gamma. In such cross classification, Gamma measures the difference in
the conditional probabilities of like and unlike order. It shows how
much more probable it is to get like than unlike order in the double
classification, when two individuals are chosen at random from the
population. If there is independence, the order within one classifi-
cation has no connection with the order of the other. In this case,
Gamma is 0. If there is high positive association between the two,
the order on one classification would generally be the same as that
of the other classification and Gamma in this case approaches plus 1.

If there is counter-association, the order in one classification would
be directly opposite that of the other and in this case Gamma approaches

minus 1 (Goodman and Kruskal, 1954; Davis, 1971)-

CHAPTER IV
HYPOTHESIS TESTING AND RESULTS

This chapter reports the results and the extent to which they
conform to those hypotheses stated in Chapter Three. The following
format will be used: (1) a statement of the hypotheses will be pre-
sented in their operational form giving both the null and alternative
forms; (2) the data necessary to substantiate the hypotheses will then
be presented in contingency tables; and (3) Gamma will be used as a

summary measure of association for each contingency table.

Educational Aspirations and Migration Plans

 

Hypothesis 1

 

Ho: Differences in migration plans will be unrelated to
levels of educational aspirations.
H]: Migration plans will be directly related to beliefs that \
educational aspirations cannot be fulfilled locally.
TWented in Table12 reveal that a very strong positive )k

correlation exists between educational aspirations and plans to

__‘_-_____/

“k

migrate. Almost 72 percent of those who have high educatiopgl,§§91;c
-____"’gfl_____

rations plan to migrate compared with only 13.2 and 6.7 percent of

 

 

 

fm-w

those who have the two lowest levels of educational aspirations.“7

 

 

 

 

 

Conversely, the percent of students who plan to stay at home after

graduation increases from only 3.4 percent for those with high

92

93

Table 12

The relationship between educational aspirations
and migration plans

 

Levels of Educational Aspirations

 

Migration

 

 

 

 

 

P‘lans LOW """""""" High
1 2 3 4
Definite plan to stay 44.4 64.2 21.5 3.4
-tu==£:r'
Indefinite whether 48.9 22.6 51.4 24.8
to stay or migrate
Definite plan 6.7 13.2 27.1 71.8
to migrate
% 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
ma] N 45 53 107 294
N = 499 Gamma = .753

educational aspirations to over 44 percent for those with the two
lowest levels of educational aspirations. The null hypothesis of no
association between educational aspirations and plans to migrate,
therefore, must clearly be rejected and the alternative must be
accepted. Further, the consistency of the relationship as stated

in the alternative hypothesis is confirmed. The Gamma measure indi-
cates the magnitude of the relationship. It indicates that if one
were to make a number of random draws from this double classification,
picking two individuals on each draw and given the order of the two
individuals relative to one another on the educational aspiration
classification, the probability of estimating their relative ordering

on the migration planning classification is increased by 75.3 percent

94

over a random guess. That is, the probability of like order on both

variables is 75.3 percent.

Occupational Aspirations and Migration Plans

Hypothesis 2

 

Ho: Differences in migration plans will be unrelated to

levels of occupational aspirations.

 

H]: Migration plans will be directly related to beliefs that
r “M“

occupational aspirations cannot be achieved locally. ,3; QQJUAGT

 

 

 

 

W _.../ to. .3,
Table 13 shows that the data are consistent with hypothesis 2 9&3\v@¢

and that there is a strong association between occupational aspira-\«fij§&&LD>

tions and plans to migrate. Therefore, the null hypothesis, again, -

must be rejected, and the alternative hypothesis must be accepted.

Table 13

The relationship between occupational aspirations
and migration plans

 

Levels of Occupational Aspiration

 

 

 

 

 

Miggation Lowest Medium Highest
ans Level Level Level
Definite plan 44.9 20.8 8.2
to stay
Indefinite whether 42.9 24.7 31.0
to stay or migrate
Definite plan 12.2 54.5 60.8
to migrate

% 100.0 100.0 100.0

T°ta' N 98 77 319

 

N = 494 Gamma = .567

95

Over 60 percent of those who have high levels of occupational aspira-
tions (professional occupations such as engineers, doctors and law-
yers) plan to migrate, compared with only 12.2 percent who aspire to
the lowest levels of occupations (e.g. primary school teacher, clerk
and the like). Conversely, for those who plan to stay in their local
community percentages increase with the decline of the level of aspira-
tion from 8.2 to nearly 45 percent. However, the relationship between
occupational aspirations and migration plans is not as strong as that
between educational aspiration and migration, as shown by the Gamma
measure of .753 and .567, respectively. The smaller Gamma measure
may be attributed to those who are not definite as to whether to stay

or to leave their community.

Community Satisfaction and Migration Plans

 

Hypothesis 3

 

Ho: Differences in migration plans will be unrelated to
levels of community satisfaction.
H]: Migration plans will be inversely related to levels
of community satisfaction.
Results bearing on the above hypothesis are presented in Table
14. The expected relationship between the level of community satis-
faction and migration plans is supported in that there is a very
strong correlation between community satisfaction and plans to
migrate. The null hypothesis, therefore, must be rejected and the
alternative hypothesis is clearly validated.

The inverse relationship found shows that the percentage of

students planning to stay at home increases systematically with the

96

ascending levels of community satisfaction. That is, 3.3 percent of
the most dissatisfied students plan to stay while almost 63 percent
of the most satisfied students plan not to migrate. Conversely, 81
percent of those having the lowest level of community satisfaction
plan to migrate as compared to only 12.5 percent of those with the
highest level of community satisfaction. The overall relationship
between community satisfaction and migration plans is very consis-
tent. The Gamma value of -.65 indicates the magnitude of this rela-
tionship. It is, however, not as strong as that between educational
aspiration and migration, but surprisingly, it is greater than that

between occupational aspiration and migration plans.

Table 14

Relationship between community satisfaction
and migration plans

 

Levels of Community Satisfaction

 

 

 

 

Migqgfiion Lowest Scores --------- Highest Scores
0 & l 2 & 3 4 & 5 6 & 7 8 & 9

Definite plan 3.3 1.2 15.5 23.5 62.5
to stay
Indefinite whether 15.8 30.2 43.6 51.0 25.0
to stay or migrate
Definite plan 80.8 68.6 40.9 25.5 12.5
to migrate

 

% 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

ma" N 120 86 110 98 56

 

N = 470 Gamma = -.649

97

Community Evaluation and Migration Plans

 

Hypothesis 4

 

Ho: Differences in migration plans will be unrelated to levels
of attitude toward community's social provisions.
1: Migration plans will be inversely related to levels of
attitude toward community's social provisions.
The expected relationship between attitude toward the community's
social provisions and plans to migrate is supported in that the rela-
tionship is in the direction predicted. Therefore, the null hypothesis

must be rejected in favor of the alternative hypothesis. As can be

seen from Table 15, over four-fifths (58.1 and 60.7%)of those who have

Table 15

The relationship between community evaluation
and migration plans

 

Migration Attitude towards the Community's Social Provisions
Plans Negative ---------------- Positive
0 & l 2 & 3 4 & 5 6 & 7 8 & 9

 

 

 

Definite plan 6.3 11.8 39.4 35.4 37.5
to stay

Indefinite whether 33.1 30.1 36.6 33.3 30.0
to stay or migrate

Definite plans 60.7 58.1 23.9 31.3 32.5
to migrate

 

% 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

T°ta' N 239 93 71 48 4o

 

N = 491 Gamma = -.414

98

evaluated their community's social provisions negatively plan to
migrate, while only less than one-fifth (31.3 - 32.5%) of those who
have positive evaluation of their community plan to migrate. However,
the order of the relationship is not consistent, and it is less strong
than that already observed between community satisfaction and migra-
tion plans, where the Gamma measures are -.414 for the former and

-.649 for the latter.

Family Obligations and Migration Plans

 

Hypothesis 5

 

Ho: Differences in migration plans will be unrelated to
levels of family obligation.

H1: Migration plans will be inversely related to levels

of family obligation.

The expected inverse relationship between family obligations
and migration plans may be observed from Table 16. Over three-
fourths (72.3 and 55.2%) of those with no or slight obligations plan
to leave the community whereas only about one fourth (31.6 and 31.8%)
of those with medium and high levels of family obligations plan to
leave. Among those who plan to stay in the community, the proportion
having high or medium obligations encompasses 27.3 and 33.8%, respec-
tively, compared to only 6.2 and 11%, respectively, fOr those who
have no or slight obligations. It is worth noting, however, that
a relatively large proportion of students are having second thoughts
about migration. Almost 33 percent of the respondents fell into

the category of "indefinite whether to stay or leave." Within this

group 21.5 and 33.9 percent stated they have no and slight obligations,

99

respectively, and 34.6 and 40.9 percent, respectively, stated they
have medium and high obligations. Furthermore, the overall predic-
tability of the family obligations variable is greater than that of
attitude toward community's social provisions. Hence, the null

hypothesis is confirmed.

Table 16

The relationship between family obligations
and migration plans

 

Levels of Family Obligations

 

 

 

 

 

 

Migration
Plans None Slight Medium High
Definite plan 6.2 10.9 33.8 27.3
to stay
Indefinite whether 21.5 33.9 34.6 40.9
to stay or migrate
Definite plan 72.3 55.2 31.6 31.8
to migrate
% 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
70'3' N 65 230 133 22
N = 450 Gamma = -.447

The Relative Predictiveness of the Instrumental
and Non-Instrumental Variables

Hypothesis 6

 

H0: There will be no difference in the strength of the
relationship between migration plans and any of the
independent variables used (educational aspirations,
occupational aspirations, community satisfaction,

community evaluation, and family obligations).

 

 

 

 

100

H]: The instrumental variables (educational and occupational
aspirations) will exert stronger relationships with migra-
tion plans than that between the non-instrumental varia-
bles and migration plans.

The data necessary to substantiate the differences in the
strength of the independent variables and migration plans can be de-
rived from previous tables used to test each hypothesis individually.
In that sense, the Gamma statistic is used as an index of association.
Table 17 summarizes the results which are used to test the above hypo-
thesis.

As can be seen from Table 17, the strength of the relationship
between educational aspirations and migration plans is greater
than any of the other independent variables and migration plans, in—
cluding occupational aspirations. Further, the relationship between
occupational aspirations and the dependent variable is not as strong
as that between community satisfaction and migration plans. The Gamma
statistic is .57 for the former and -.65 for the latter. The null
hypothesis, therefore, must be rejected and the alternative which
only received partial support also cannot be accepted. The alterna-
tive hypothesis could be accepted if the occupational variable is
excluded. Then the instrumental variable (educational aspirations)

' would be more closely related to migration plans than any other
independent variable.

Since the alternative hypothesis was not completely supported,
two further independent tests were conducted to either confirm or

reject the above findings. The first test is based on data extracted

101

Table 17

A comparison of the relationships between the five
independent variables and migration plans,
using Gamma as an index of association

 

ndepen- Educa- Occupa- Commu- Commu-

 
 
 

 

dent tional tional nity nity Family
Aspira- Aspira- Satis- Evalua- Obli-

Dependent tions tions faction tion gations
Migration 0.753 0.567 -O.649 -0.414 -O.447

Plans

 

by means of a series of questions which asked respondents about the
possibility of staying in the community if his educational and occu-
pational aspirations could be achieved locally and if local facilities
were to be improved (Questions 40, 50 and 53).

Those who were either definitely planning to migrate, or who
were indefinite about whether they would leave or stay and their re-
sponses were selected and their responses to the above questions are
summarized in Table 18. This table shows that out of the 369 (73.4%
of total) prospective migrants, over 50 percent indicated that they
would stay home if both their educational and occupational aspirations
were attainable in the local community. However, those who indi-
cated they would stay if their educational aspirations could be
satisfied locally are more than twice as large as those who would
remain at home if their occupational aspiration was available locally,
26.3 and 12.7 percent, respectively. In contrast, only a small
minority (9.2%) of prospective migrants indicated that they would
not stay even if their instrumental aspirations (education and occu-

pation) could be achieved locally. These respondents have

102

aspirations for better community facilities or for personal relation-

ships which they think cannot be fulfilled locally.

Table 18

Proportion of students having some intention of migrating
who indicated they would stay if:

 

Educational Occupation Only if both Would not stay

 

 

level aspired to educational for A, B or C
aspired to available level & occu- but only if
obtainable locally pation aspired community
locally to available facilities

locally improved Total
N 97 47 191 34 369
% 26 .3 12.7 51.8 9.2 100.0

 

The data presented above, therefore, demonstrate the overall
importance of instrumental aspirations on the part of those who in-
tend to migrate. This in turn gives support to the rejection of the
null hypothesis and the acceptance of the alternative.

The second attempt to test the relative predictiveness of the
independent variables is the use of an analogue to multiple regres-
sion where the dependent variable is regressed upon the five indepen-
dent variables. As data presented in Table 19 indicates, 50.1% of
the variance was explained (P <'.OOl). Of the five variables, edu-
cational aspirations had the strongest relationship with the depen-
dent variable (Beta = .441, P <f.001). Community social provisions,
however, bore the weakest relationship to the migration intention

(Beta = .009). Community satisfaction, in contrast, had the second

103

strongest relationship with the dependent variable, and it is even
greater than the relationship shown by the occupational aspiration
variable (Beta = .374 and .100, P < .001 respectively). Here again
the null hypothesis must be rejected but the alternative cannot be
accepted fully since it received only partial support. Hence, the latter

test hence lends support to the earlier test.

Table 19

Regression of migration intention upon educational and
occupational aspirations, conmunity satisfaction, corrmunity
evaluation and family obligations

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Independent Sim 19
Variables rp R2 b Beta
1. Educational .580 .336 .409 .441*
Aspirations
2. Community Social -.107 .337 -.005 -.009
Provisions
3. Family -.225 .351 -.O63 -.078**
Obligations
4. Occupational .306 .379 .093 .100*
Aspirations
5. Community -.528 .501 -.338 -.374*
Satisfaction
N = 458
*P .001
**O .05

Summarizing the results of the three tests of hypothesis 6,
partial support for the alternative hypothesis was demonstrated.
Educational aspirations as an instrumental variable was far more

predictive of migration plans than any of the other non-instrumental

104

variables. Occupational aspirations, on the other hand, was almost
as predictive as educational aspiration of migration plans, if community

satisfaction is not included in the comparison (See Table 18).

Hypothesis 7

 

Ho: There will be no difference in the relationship between
educational aspiration (and occupational) aspirations
and migration plans for different levels of community
satisfaction.

H]: The relationship between educational (and occupational)

aspirations and migration plans (on the part of those

who intend to migrate) will be smaller at low levels of
community satisfaction, than at higher levels (i.e. those
who are highly dissatisfied with their community will
plan to migrate whether or not their aspirations could

be fulfilled locally).

Tables 20 and 21 consist of data necessary to test this hypo-
thesis. Table 20 shows that a higher overall association between
educational aspirations and migration plans at the lower levels of
community satisfaction as measured by the Gamma statistic, than at
any other level<yfthe control variable. The strength of this rela-
tionship at lower levels of community satisfaction is due, however,
to the fact that a far greater proportion of those who have high
levels of educational aspirations definitely intend to migrate
than those delineated by any other value of the community satisfaction.

Therefore, the null hypothesis must be rejected and the alter-

native hypothesis cannot be accepted as far as the educational aspirations

105

 

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106

variable is concerned since the relationship between educational
aspirations and migration plans (those who intend to migrate) is
in a direction opposite that predicted.

If we focus our observation on those who have definite inten-
tion to stay at home, the alternative hypothesis would receive some
support. That, a very small proportion of those who intend to stay
at lower levels of community satisfaction compared to any other level,
which is true across all levels of educational aspirations. The be-
liefs of those respondents who are relatively dissatisfied with their
home community (whether or not their educational aspirations are
attainable locally), has less effect on plans to stay than is true
for those who are highly satisfied with their local community. For
those who plan to stay, the percentage differences between those
with low and high aspirations at each level of community satisfac-
tion may manifest what has been contended above. For those with
low levels of community satisfaction, the percentage is 6.2 percent
compared with 32.7 and 66.9 percent for those with medium and high
community satisfaction, respectively.

With respect to the occupational aspiration variable, Table
21 shows trends similar to those presented for educational aspira-
tions. Here again the null hypothesis must be rejected but the
alternative cannot be accepted since the predicted relationship be-
tween occupational aspirations and migration plans is in a direction
opposite to that predicted. At the same time, the overall relation-
ship is higher at lower levels of community satisfaction than at

any other level. The trend of this relationship, however, as

107

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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108

measured by Gamma statistics is not as strong as that shown between
educational aspirations and migration plans (Table 20, 21).

To elaborate on the greater strength of the relationship be-
tween occupational aspiration and migration plans at lower levels
of community satisfaction (Gamma = .589), it is also due to the same
fact stated earlier where the relationship between educational aspi-
rations and migration plans was discussed. That is, a far greater
proportion of those who aspire to high levels of occupations
intend to migrate than those characterized by any other value of com-
munity satisfaction.

The support that one could find for the alternative hypothesis
was only among those who plan to stay. That is, a relatively small
proportion of this group at lower levels of satisfaction compared to
any other level of the control variable. In addition to that,
whether or not these respondents who are relatively dissatisfied
(low levels of community satisfaction) believe that their occupa-
tional aspirations can be achieved locally, has far less effect on
their decision to stay than those who are highly satisfied with
their community.

In sum, the two instrumental variables, namely educational
and occupational aspirations, make less difference for those who
plan to stay and who have low levels of community satisfaction
than it does for those who have higher levels of community satis-
faction. Thus, in predicting who will remain in the community, the
alternative hypothesis is supported, while it is not confirmed on

the part of those who plan to migrate. However, the variations in

109

educational and occupational aspirations make a greater difference
in plans to migrate at lower levels of community satisfaction than

at higher ones.

Hypothesis 8

Ho: There will be no difference in the relationship between
education (and occupational) aspirations and migration
plans for different levels of family obligations.

H1: The relationship between educational (and occupational)
aspirations and migration plans (on the part of those
who intend to migrate) will be smaller for respondents
with medium/high levels of family obligations than for
those with lower levels of obligations.

An examination of the data presented in Table 22 and 23 which
are required to test this hypothesis do not reveal the expected re-
lationship. However, major differences in the relative relation-
ships between educational and occupational aspirations and migration
plans do exist which leads to the rejection of the null hypothesis.
0n the other hand, the alternative cannot be accepted since these
differences are in a direction opposite to that predicted.

Table 22 indicates that for those definitely planning to stay,
family obligations are not related to educational aspirations. For
this group planning to stay, the highest proportions have low educa-
tional aspirations at each level of family obligations.

As shown in Table 22, for those who plan to migrate, it

seems that high family obligations do not serve to prevent migra-

tion if respondents believe that their educational aspirations

110

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111

cannot be fulfilled locally. That is, high obligations to family

do not counteract the effect of such aspirations on plans to migrate.
Approximately 69 and 75 percent of respondents having high and low
family obligations, respectively, apparently believe that their
educational aspirations are unattainable locally, and consequently
plan to migrate in order to achieve their aspirations. Increasing
family obligations, therefore, have almost no influence on plans to
migrate. 0n the other hand, the presence of family obligations has

a major influence for those who plan to stay. Such obligations would
seem to prevent these respondents from planning to go for further
training, and therefore, accept what is available locally. Only 33.3
percent of those with no obligations are definitely planning to stay
compared to over 62 percent of those with medium/high obligations.

The evidence, shown in Table 22, supports the proposition that
family obligations operate to retard migration intentions only if
beliefs that such educational aspirations cannot be fulfilled locally.
0n the other hand, the variable has no influence on the part of re-
spondents who intend to migrate and who think their aspirations can—
not materialize at home.

Table 23 consists of data intended to test the same hypothesis
when the occupational aspiration variable is considered. As can be
seen from the table, the null hypothesis must be rejected and the
alternative also cannot be accepted since the overall relationships
between occupational aspirations and migration plans differ only
slightly from the relationship of educational aspirations and migra-

tion plans just discussed. The similarity comes from the fact that

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112

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113

for those who have lower levels of occupational aspirations, in-
creasing levels of family obligations are accompanied with an in-
crease on the part of those who plan to stay. Furthermore, for
those who aspire to higher levels of occupations, an increase in
family obligations do lead to decreasing percentages among those
who intend to migrate. But, on the other hand, such an increase

in the levels of obligations do lead to an increasing percentage
among those who plan to stay and who have high aspirations. The
latter is the only deviation from the earlier analysis. Thus, in
terms of predicting who will stay at home, the alternative hypothe-
sis is supported using both variables (educational and occupational
aspirations), while in terms of who will migrate, the family obliga-
tions variable is not related as hypothesized. The instrumental
variables, therefore, take precedence over family obligations in
predicting migration plans on the part of those who intend to leave

the community for a destination where aspirations can be fulfilled.

Hypothesis 9

 

Ho: There will be no differences in the relationship between
educational (and occupational) aspirations and migration
plans for different levels of community evaluation.

H1: The relationship between educational (and occupational)

aspirations and migration plans will be smaller at low

levels of community evaluation than at higher levels

(i.e. those who evaluate their community negatively will

intend to migrate irrespective of their aspirations).

The data shown in Tables 24 and 25 clearly indicate major

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115

differences in the partial relationships between educational and
occupational aSpirations and migration plans. The null hypothesis,
hence, must be rejected. However, the alternative hypothesis cannot
be accepted either since the relationships are in a direction oppo-
site to the one predicted.

The overall relationships between educational and occupational
aspirations and migration plans are similar to those presented earlier
when family obligations was used as a control variable (Tables 22, 23).
For those who have lower levels of educational and occupational aspi-
rations and plan to stay, percentages increase from a low (negative)
to a high (positive) evaluation of the community's social provisions.
(The highest value is found at medium level of community evaluation).
Furthermore, comparing those whose educational and occupational aspi-
rations are high with those whose aspirations are low, the percentage
differences between respondents planning to stay are 29.6 and 17.8
percent, respectively, among those who have a negative attitude toward
their community social provisions and 55.4 and 35.5 percent, respec-
tively, for those with a positive attitude. Thus, the two instrumen-
tal variables (educational and occupational aspirations) make less
difference in plans to stay in the local community for respondents
dissatisfied with local facilities than it does for those positively
satisfied with the local facilities. Thus, for those who want to
stay, a definite support for the alternative hypothesis can be
found.

If we restrict our observations to the category of those plan-

ning to migrate, the shift from negative to positive evaluation of

116

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117

the community social provisions does lead to decreasing percentages
among those who have high aspirations. And there is, in fact, a
higher overall relationship between educational aspirations and plans
to migrate at the lower levels of community evaluation. In the case
of the relationship between occupational aspirations and plans to
migrate, it is almost the same as that of the higher levels of com-
munity evaluation. It is clear, however, that the instrumental
variables are more predictive of plans to migrate than the commu-

nity evaluation variable.

Hypothesis lO

 

The total proportion of migration plans explained by low

levels of community satisfaction and community evaluation

and by low levels of family obligations will be considerably

less than that explained by educational and occupational aspi-

rations.

Hypotheses 7, 8 and 9 asserted that, (1) low community satis-
faction would lead to plans to migrate whether or not aspirations
would be achievable locally; (2) negative evaluation of community
social provisions also would lead to plans to migrate irrespective
of other factors; and (3) high family obligations would lead to plans
to remain in the community irrespective of beliefs about the ability
of achieving such aspirations there. As shown earlier, these hypo-
theses were not supported and they operate only on the part of those
who plan to stay. Among those who plan to migrate, the instrumental
variables and the beliefs about the fulfillment of these aspirations

locally are more influential on decisions than any other variables.

118

The intent of hypothesis 10, however, is the confirmation of
conclusions resulting from testing hypotheses 7, 8 and 9. Data
relevant to this hypothesis is presented in Appendix C, along with
data presented in Tables 20 to 25 revealed that: (1) educational
and occupational aspirations and the beliefs about the fulfillment
of these aspirations in the local community are far more predic-
tive of plans to migrate than any other variable used in this
study; (2) low levels of community satisfaction, negative atti-
tudes toward community social provisions and non/slight family
obligations were not as predictive of migration plans as expected,
and did not counteract the effects of the inability of the local
community to fulfill such aspirations on the part of those who
plan to migrate; (3) the non-instrumental variables are related to
the educational and occupational aspiration variables. Those who
have high family obligations tend to aspire to lower educational
and occupational levels - 60.9 and 62.0 percent, respectively,
(Appendix C, Tables 3 and 8), as compared to those who have high
aspirations and believe that they can achieve these aspirations
locally, 25.6 percent in the case of educational aspirations and
23.2 in the case of occupational aspirations. Those who are rela-
tively dissatisfied with their community and have negative atti-
tudes toward the facilities provided locally tend to be respondents
who believe that they unquestionably cannot fulfill their aspira-
tions locally. In sum, the independent variables are intercorre-
lated with each other, as the data presented in Appendix C reveals.

Certain conclusions can be reached at this point. First,

these intercorrelations provide some indications that the variables,

119

community satisfaction and community social provisions,are not
highly related, and the variation in their scores apparently re-
sults from the evaluation by respondents of the adequacy of the
community's educational and occupational opportunities. If the re-
spondents perceive that their educational and occupational aspira-
tions can be fulfilled locally, they will tend to be satisfied with
the community and tend to like it better. If they believe that
their aspirations cannot be achieved locally, they will tend to
dislike their community. Second, although educational and occupa-
tional aspirations are highly correlated with each other (Gamma =
.634), occupational aspirations unlike educational aspirations are
highly related with the other variables. Also the distribution of
cases among the values of the variable is such that there are too
many cases in the high and intermediate occupational category and
very few in the low category. For these reasons, this variable
must be excluded from an analogue of multiple regression model. The
explanation of variance, however, was increased slightly when this
variable is dropped from the model (50.4 percent of the variance was
explained as compared to only 50.1 when all the variables are re-

gressed).

Hypothesis ll

 

HO: Differences in the levels of educational aspiration will
be unrelated to levels of occupational aspirations.
1: Educational aspirations will be directly related to occu-

pational aspirations.

120

Hypothesis 12

 

Ho: The strength of the relationship between educational
aspiration and migration plans will not vary by levels
of occupational aspiration.

H1: The higher the level of occupational aspiration the
greater the relationship between educational aspira-
tion and migration plans.

It is certain at this point that educational and occupational
aspirations are more predictive of migration plans than any of the
other variables. The intent of hypotheses 11 and 12, however, is
to ascertain whether educational aspirations play a greater role
in migration planning at higher levels of occupational aspiration.
In other words, of the two independent variables, which is more
predictive of migration plans, given the fact that the type and
amount of educational training aspired to by respondents is de-
termined by the kind of occupation aspired to? This proposition
would seem especially true in Libya where the educational system
is tied to the occupational structure; that is to say, if a student
aspires to an engineering career, then he has to go to a college of
engineering. In this sense, however, it should be remembered that
at first we are dealing with correlations between two independent
variables and inferring from correlation to cause. Second, in
hypothesis 12, we are concerned with the "cause" of migration in
a more direct sense.

The data pertaining to hypothesis 11 are presented in Table

26. As revealed by the Gamma statistics (.634), there is a clear

121

Table 26

The relationship between educational and
occupational aspirations

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Levels of Levels of Occupational Aspirations
Educational
Aspirations Low Medium High
Low 59.2 13.0 8.9
Medium 29.6 16.9 20.3
High 11.2 70.1 70.8
% 100.0 100.0 100.0
ma" N 98 77 315
Gamma = .634

positive relationship between occupational and educational aspira-
tions. The null hypothesis, therefore, must be rejected and the alter-
native is supported. The higher the level of occupational aspirations
the greater the type and amount of education aspired to and the
greater the tendency that such higher aspirations cannot be fulfilled
locally. Over 70 percent of those who indicated that they aspire to
higher professional occupations such as engineer, physician and the
like, intend to go for further education, college or beyond. For
those who aspire to occupations such as primary school teacher, govern-
ment official, farming and the like, 59.2 percent do not intend to go
for further education. They more likely terminate their educational
career or engage in teacher training which is provided in the local

community.

122

Given this positive correlation between these two independent
variables and the fact supported earlier that educational and occu-
pational aspirations are positively related to migration plans,
the question then is which of these two independent variables is
more predictive of migration plans? How are the beliefs about the
fulfillment of such aSpirations related to migration? Hypothesis 12,
as stated earlier, deals with these two questions.

Table 27 contains the data bearing on hypothesis 12. Since
the levels of occupational and educational aspirations are so highly
correlated as shown above, the former will be used here as the con-
trol variable. The null hypothesis must clearly be rejected, since
there are major differences among occupational levels in the rela-
tionship between educational aspirations and migration plans. How-
ever, the alternative hypothesis was not confirmed because the dif-
ferences are in a direction opposite to that predicted. Educational
aspiration is in fact more predictive of migration plans (for those
who intend to migrate) than any value of the control variable. Look-
ing at the table from the point of view of those who plan to stay,
the alternative hypothesis receives some support. Those who have
no intention of going for further education and who aspire to lower
occupational levels plan to remain in much greater proportions than
do respondents from any other level of occupational aspiration. The
respective figures are 63.8 percent for the low level of occupational
aspirations, 60.0 percent for the medium, and 39.3 for the high level
professional occupations. The relatively greater proportions of

those having low levels of educational and occupational aspirations

123

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124

plan to stay because of their definite belief that their occupational
aspirations can be fulfilled locally and that the educational facili-
ties are probably sufficient to meet their aspirations. On the other
hand, there are minor differences among those with high educational
aspirations who plan to migrate at all levels of occupational aspira-
tions. They plan to migrate in approximately equal proportions for
all occupational levels-72.7, 72.2, 71.7 percent for high aspira-
tion respondents at lower, medium, and high levels of occupational
aspirations, respectively.

However, the results of the analysis of "conditional migration"
above revealed that: (l) the educational aspirations variable is more
predictive of migration plans than the occupational one; (2) if occu-
pational and educational aspirations are achievable locally, the
lower occupational and educational aspirers are much more likely than
others to remain in the home community; and (3) far greater proportions
of the higher educational aspirers than of others would not remain
in the home community under any conditions.

Structural Factgrs Influencingithe Independent
Variables

l. The Cultural Orientation of Respondents' Families and Factors
Influencing Migration Plans

Hypothesis 13

HO: Differences in (1) educational and occupational aspira-
tions, (2) community satisfaction, (3) community evalua-
tion and (4) migration plans will be unrelated to the

cultural orientation of respondents' families.

125

H]: Respondents from traditional families will have (1) lower
levels of educational and occupational aspirations, (2)
lower levels of community satisfaction, (3) positive
attitude toward community social provisions and (4)
lower tendencies to migrate than will respondents from
modern families.

The results bearing on this hypothesis are presented in Tables

28 to 32. The traditional-modern continuum scale is trichotomized,
and those respondents who score low on the scale were then classified
as belonging to traditional families, whereas those who scored high
on the scale were considered modern.

As Tables 28 and 29 indicate, the null hypothesis is rejected
in the case of educational and occupational aspirations, as there are
differences between those from traditional and modern backgrounds on
these two variables. The alternative hypothesis is clearly confirmed
with respect to these two variables, since a larger proportion of
those from traditional families aspire to lower educational and occu-
pational levels. For the former variable, 38.3 percent of those from
traditional families aspire to lower levels of education or have no
intention of going for further education beyond high school, compared
to only 11.6 percent of those from modern families. Conversely, over
66 percent of those from modern families aspire to higher education
beyond high school, while 34.8 percent of those from traditional
background aspire to the same level. The same pattern holds for
those two different cultural orientation groups in regard to occupa-

tional aspiration. Here almost the same proportion from traditional

126

Table 28

The relationship between the cultural orientation of respondents'
families and educational aspiration

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Levels of Cultural Orientation

Educational

Aspiration Traditional Medium Modern

Low 38.3 17.0 11.6

Medium 27.0 20.6 21.7

High 34.8 62.4 66.7
% 100.0 100.0 100.0

T°ta‘ N 115 141 198
Gamma = -.372
Table 29

The relationship between the cultural orientation of respondents'
families and occupational aspiration

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Levels of Cultural Orientation
Occupational
Aspiration Traditional Medium Modern
Low 48.7 16.3 8.2
Medhun 16.8 12.8 17.9
High 34.5 70.9 73.8
% 100.0 100.0 100.0
T°ta' N 113 141 195
Gamma = -.480

families who aspired to a high level of education (34.8%) aspire to

professional occupations (34.5%). This figure may be compared to

127

73.8 percent from modern families. The pattern is reversed, however,
in the case of low levels of occupation such as clerk, primary school
teacher and the like. While only 8.2 percent of those from modern
families aspire to these jobs, the percentage is almost six times as
great (48.7%) for those from traditional families.

In regard to community satisfaction, a consistent difference
between "traditionals" and "moderns" prevails. However, the dif-
ferences between these two groups are not as great as in the case
of educational and occupational aspirations. As can be seen from
Table 30, a larger proportion of respondents from modern families
have low community satisfaction as compared to those from traditional
families - 51.3 percent for the former and 31.4 percent for the lat-
ter. Only a slightly higher proportion of traditionals, however,
(24.8%) have higher satisfaction than moderns (18.0%). The null
hypothesis must be rejected since differences between these two
groups exist and the alternative is supported since these differ-
ences are in the direction predicted.

In regard to community evaluation, the same trend as that
shown in the case of community satisfaction holds true. Here again
the null hypothesis is rejected and the alternative is supported.

A slightly larger proportion of the moderns than the traditionals
have a negative attitude toward their community's social provisions -
60.9 and 47.4 percent, respectively. Over 21 percent of respondents
from traditional families compared to 15.1 percent of those from
modern families, show a positive attitude toward the community

social provisions (See Table 31).

'128

Table 30

The relationship between the cultural orientation of
respondents' families and community satisfaction

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Levels of Cultural Orientation
Community

Satisfaction Traditional Medium Modern
Low 31.4 38.8 51.3
(0-3)

Med. 43.8 33.6 30.7
(4-6)
High 24.8 27.6 18.0
(7-9)

% 100.0 100.0 100.0
T°ta' N 105 134 189

 

Gama = -.211

Table 31

The relationship between the cultural orientation of
respondents' families and community evaluation

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Levels of Cultural Orientation
Community .
Evaluation Traditional Medium Modern
Negative 47.4 61.2 60.9
(0-3)
Med. 30.7 18.7 24.0
(4-6)
Positive 21.9 20.1 15.1
(7-9)

% 100.0 100.0 100.0

T°t31 N 114 139 192

 

Gama = -.201

129

Finally, with respect to the question as to who will decide
to migrate from these two groups, Table 32 indicates that a greater
proportion of respondents from modern families intend to leave the
community as compared to their counterparts from traditional families.
The percentage of those who intend to migrate increases as one moves
from the traditional category to the modern one. For those who are
definitely intending to remain in the local community, the proportion
of those respondents from a traditional background is greater than
those from a modern background.

Overall then, consistent differences between the two groups
exist in regard to the four variables just discussed and the null
hypothesis, therefore, is rejected. The alternative, on the other
hand, is confirmed. Traditionals have lower educational and occupa-
tional aspirations, relatively lower community satisfaction, and
relatively positive attitude toward the community social provisions.

As an apparent consequence, fewer of the traditionals plan to migrate.

Table 32

The relationship between the cultural orientation of
the respondents' families and migration plans

 

 

 

 

 

 

Migration Cultural Orientation

Plans Traditional ‘MedTUm Modern
Definite plans 34.8 19.0 8.0
to stay
Indefinite whether 39.1 29.6 29.6
to stay or migrate
Definite plans 26.1 51.4 62.3
to migrate

% 100.0 100.0 100.0
T°ta' N 115 142 199

 

Gamma = -.428

130

2. Social Status of Respondents' Families and Factors
Influencinngigration Plans

 

Hypothesis l4

 

HO: Differences in (1) educational and occupational aspira-
tions and (2) migration plans will be unrelated to the
social status of respondents' families.

H1: Respondents from families whose father holds a manual
(skilled and unskilled) or a service occupation will
tend to have (1) lower levels of educational and occu-
pational aspiration, and (2) lower tendencies to migrate
than respondents from families whose father hold higher
or lower professional jobs.

Tables 33 to 35 contain data bearing on this hypothesis. The
results obtained with respect to the effects of family social status
on the educational aspirations of the respondents (Table 33) indicate
that there are differences in the educational aspiration levels
which correspond to differences in fathers' occupational status.
Further, these differences are in the direction expected. The
null hypothesis, therefore, must be rejected and the alternative
is clearly supported. The proportion of respondents who have
lower levels of educational aspiration is greater for those whose
fathers hold manual and unskilled jobs than for any other category.
The proportion decreases as one moves toward higher occupational
categories, or from 24.7 percent for manual and unskilled to 6.8
percent for higher and lower professional categories. For those
who aspire to higher levels of education, the proportions increase

from 52.5 percent for those whose fathers hold manual and

130

2. Social Status of Respondents' Families and Factors
InfluendingTMigration Plans

Hypothesis l4

 

Ho: Differences in (1) educational and occupational aspira-
tions and (2) migration plans will be unrelated to the
social status of respondents' families.

H]: Respondents from families whose father holds a manual
(skilled and unskilled) or a service occupation will
tend to have (1) lower levels of educational and occu-
pational aspiration, and (2) lower tendencies to migrate
than respondents from families whose father hold higher
or lower professional jobs.

Tables 33 to 35 contain data bearing on this hypothesis. The
results obtained with respect to the effects of family social status
on the educational aspirations of the respondents (Table 33) indicate
that there are differences in the educational aspiration levels
which correspond to differences in fathers' occupational status.
Further, these differences are in the direction expected. The
null hypothesis, therefore, must be rejected and the alternative
is clearly supported. The proportion of respondents who have
lower levels of educational aspiration is greater for those whose
fathers hold manual and unskilled jobs than for any other category.
The proportion decreases as one moves toward higher occupational
categories, or from 24.7 percent for manual and unskilled to 6.8
percent for higher and lower professional categories. For those
who aspire to higher levels of education, the proportions increase

from 52.5 percent for those whose fathers hold manual and

131

Table 33

The relationships between the social status of the respondents'
families and respondents' levels of educational aspirations

 

Respondent's Father's Occupation

 

 

 

 

 

 

Level of Manual Semi- Intermediate Higher and
Educational and Un- Skilled Non- Lower
Aspirations skilled and Skilled Manual Prof.
Low 24.7 22.1 15.3 6.8
Medium 22.8 23.0 22.7 13.6
High 52.5 54.9 62.0 79.7
% 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Tm" N 158 113 150 59
Gamma = .230

unskilled to 79.7 percent for those whose fathers hold professional
jobs. As Table 34 reveals, the same trend recurs in the case of
occupational aspirations. That is, 26.6 percent of those who aspire
to lower levels of occupational aspirations come from households
whose heads hold manual jobs as compared to only 7.0 percent for
those from the professional group. Conversely, 75.4 percent of
those who aspire to high occupational levels had fathers with high
occupational status. This compares with only 57.1 percent who
aspire to high occupational levels whose fathers have low occupa-
tional status.

The results concerning migration plans are presented in Table
35. In this case, also, the null hypothesis has been rejected and

the alternative hypothesis is confirmed. There is a higher proportion

132

Tab1e 34

The relationship between the social status of the respondents'
families and respondents' levels of occupational aspiration

 

Respondent's Father's Occupation

 

 

 

 

 

 

Level of Manual Semi - Intermediate Higher and
Occupational and Un- Skilled Non Lower
Aspiration skilled and Skilled Manual Prof.
Low 26.6 25.2 15.7 7.0
Medium 16.2 17.1 11.8 17.5
High 57.1 57.7 72.5 75.4

% 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

T°t31 N 154 111 153 57
Gamma = .240

from the manual and unskilled category who plan to remain in the
home community than from any other group. For those who are plan-
ning to migrate, the proportion of those from the professional
group is much greater than those from any other group.

Overall, then, consistent differences occur between the four
groups in terms of their educational and occupational aspirations
and their migration plans. And these differences are in the direc-
tion predicted in each case. Hence, those whose fathers hold manual
or unskilled occupations have lower levels of educational and occu-
pational aspirations than have those whose fathers hold professional
jobs. As an apparent consequence, relatively fewer of them plan to

migrate.

133

Table 35

The relationship between the social status of the respondents'
families and respondents' migration plans

 

Father's Occupation

 

 

 

Migration Manual Semi- Intermediate' Higher
Plans and Un- Skilled Non and Lower
Skilled and Skilled Manual Prof.
Definite intention 21.5 21.9 9.8 8.5
to stay
Indefinite whether 37.3 38.6 30.1 20.3

to stay or leave

 

 

 

Definite intention 41.1 39.5 60.1 71.2
to migrate
% 100.0 100 0 100.0 100 o
T0ta' N 158 114 153 59
Gamma = .292

3. Respondents' Birth Order and Factors Influencing Migration Plans

Hypothesis 15

Ho: Differences in (1) educational and occupational aspira-
tions and (2) migration plans will be unrelated to the
position of the respondent in the family.

H1: Respondents holding higher birth order position in the
family will tend to have (1) lower educational aspira-
tions, (2) lower occupational aspirations and (3) lower
tendencies to migrate, than respondents holding lower
position (third oldest or more).

The results pertinent to this hypothesis are presented in

Tables 36 to 38. The null hypothesis is rejected in the case of

134

educational and occupational aspirations, since there are differences
between the respondents' position on these two variables. The alter-
native hypothesis is clearly rejected since these differences are in
the direction opposite to that predicted. That is, the proportions
of those who aspire to lower educational and occupational levels
are relatively greater for those who have lower birth order posi-
tions in the family (third or more). Only 14.5 and 16.9 percent
of those who are the oldest in the family have lower educational
and occupational aspirations, respectively. In contrast, 21.3 and
24.0 percent of the youngest aspire to the same low levels. Even
if we concentrate our observations on those who have higher levels
of educational and occupational aspirations, the alternative hypo-
thesis does not receive any support in that the same trend just
stated holds true for this group as well. There are relatively
greater proportions of respondents who intend to go for higher
education and who aspire to professional jobs among those who
are oldest rather than the youngest in their families.

In regard to migration plans, however, the null hypothesis
is again rejected but the alternative received some support. Over
51 percent of the respondents having low birth order positions are
planning to migrate, as compared to 41.2 percent of those who are
the oldest in their families. Among those who are planning to
remain in the home community, the differences between the lower
and higher birth order groups, however, are insignificant, their

respective proportions being 17.6 percent and 17.3 percent.

135

Table 36

The relationship between the respondents' birth

order and their educational aspirations

 

Respondents' Birth Order

 

 

 

 

 

 

Levels of First
Educational Third position Second Position
Aspiration or more (Low) Position (High)
Low 21.3 18.7 14.5
Medium 21.3 19.6 25.3
High 57.4 61.7 60.2

% 100.0 100.0 100.0

T°'a' N 305 107 83
Gamma = -.075
Table 37

The relationship between the respondents' birth order
and their occupational aspiration

 

Respondents' Birth Order

 

 

 

 

Dgzfihztignal Third position Seeond pglgigon
Aspiration or more (Low) Pos1t1on (H190)
Low 24.0 11.2 15,9
Medium 13.7 18.7 16.9
High 52.3 70.1 55.3
Total 3 $88.0 139.0 lgg.0

 

Gamma = -.l3O

136

Overall, the null hypothesis must be rejected and the alternative
also cannot be accepted. This unexpected finding may be due to the
greater proportions of respondents who fall in the third and younger
category as compared to the other two. The third and younger group
accounted for 62 percent of all respondents whereas the other two

groups accounted only for 38 percent of all respondents.

Table 38

The relationship between the respondents' birth
order and migration plans

 

Respondents' Birth Order

 

 

 

Migration Third Position Second First Position
Plans or More (Low) Position (High)

Definite plans 17.3 16.8 17.6

to stay

Indefinite whether 31.3 30.8 41.2

to stay or migrate

 

 

 

Definite plans 51.5 52.3 41.2
to migrate
% 100.0 100.0 100.0
'0'“ N 307 107 85
Gamma = .068

This hypothesis which considered the relationship between
birth order of respondent and plans to migrate concludes the chap-
ter concerned with major findings. The findings will be summarized

and discussed in the next chapter.

CHAPTER V

§gflMARY 0F FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS

 

Migration research has usually been in the hands of demogra-

“4?...”

 

 

 

 

k

phers whose major interests have been the analy§j§_gfflmjgration

 

 

 

 

(

streams and differential migration patterns. While such studies

 

 

are important, they yield only fractional knowledge about the pro-

cess of migration. Demographers fail to trace the migration process

 

both at the individual and the social- -psychological levels, specifi-

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

.-—.-.-‘ _-_.._._______.__, -_-

cally from the attitudinal point of view. Consequently, a wealth of

 

 

‘1’

material dealing with demographic and ecological explanations of
migration are accumulated, but virtually nothing is available on the
attitudes associated with migration. The concern of this study,

lomghl— 41‘ Q¥leufiilfl€
therefore, is with social- -psychological fact_ors thought to explain

x V“ ‘ Vb; h Ofl PCLHtVV: 5*
plans to migrate among rural youth in Libya. o5 ~rne' VOL-0+

The theoretical framework set forth in Chapter Two was utilized,
from which a set of hypotheses was derived that was expected to help
explain migration decision-making among young people. In Chapter
Four the results of the empirical study of the relationship between
certain attitudinal and aspiration variables and migration plans were
presented. Also explored was the manner in which those independent
attitudinal variables were structured by the social context in which

the respondent lives, and in turn affect migration plans. In this

137

138

chapter, the results will be summarized and the impact of the results
on the theoretical framework will be examined. Some limitations of

the study will also be pointed out.

Summary of Results
In tracing the process of migration from a so;ial:p§ychological
point of view, the study demonstrated that the five independent vari-
ables were related to migration plans among high school students.
{EQThe level of educatéggal aspiration as proposed was directly related

to migration plans. A high proportion of respondents who indicated

 

 

 

 

 

 

that they were going to pursue further education beyond high school épfij;

N.‘

.__._—u_ .- £_‘

 

 

 

. K

where educational facilities are available The data also revealed \l

N #4

tend to leave their community after graduation for a destination éfl5§UP95§U}3
\.

\ __.

that occupational aspirations were directly related to migration

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

plans,” Those who aspire to high professional ccu ations such as ',{Ufidfi%g
L \p@P\}\9y&*
_engjneer, physician, and the like, plan to migrate in greater pro- \JON/
~fi-~—~——.__~z___ f__fiflfl‘fl___‘_ #flflfifi .
portions than those who aspire to lower occupations such as govern- CE)
ment official, primary_school teacher, and the like. The strength ’
of the relationship between this variable and migration plans as ~§xt

measured by the Gamma statistic was not as great as that between
educational aspirations and migration plans.

The relative predictive ability of these two independent var-
iables on migration plans was examined. It was proposed that since
the educational system in Libya is tied to the occupational struc-
ture, then the relationship between educational aspirations and
migration plans will be greater at the higher levels of occupational

aspiration. Although these two independent variables are highly

I39

correlated, educational aspirations were more predictive of migra—
tion plans than any value of occupational aspirations. In contrast,
occupational aspirations were more predictive of those who plan to

stay in the local community. That is to say, those who aspire to

...—~—

 

low occupations believe that the educational facilities in th_e_

local community are sufficient to f“]fj]] their occupal 1
[EEigfli—flnd; therefore, plan not to leave the_communityr——wflva-

Community satisfaction as an attitudinal variable refers to

 

the evaluation by respondents of how satisfactory local social re-
lations are andeas found to be negatively related to migration
plans. If respondents have a low regard for their community, they
plan to migrate in much greater proportions than those who have a
high regard for their community. While the strength of the rela-
tionship between occupational aspiration and migration plans ranked
third, the gammas for the relationships between occupational aspira-
tion and migration plans and between community satisfaction and migra-
tion plans were about the same. Furthermore, even at lower levels of
community satisfaction, such educational and occupational aspirations
play a major role in migration plans. In fact, when community satis-
faction is used as a control variable, educational and occupational
aspirations have a higher correlation with migration plans (those who
intend to leave) at low compared to higher levels of community satis-
faction. However, among those who are definitely planning to remain
in the community, educational and occupational aspirations have less
influence at lower levels than any other value of the control vari-
able. Whether educational and occupational aspirations can or can-

not be fulfilled locally makes less difference in plans to stay at

140

home, if respondents have lower regard for community than for any
other value of community satisfaction.

Family obligations was the fourth variable which has a strong
negative relationship with migration plans. 0f the five independent
variables, it was the fourth most predictive of migration plans among
high school seniors. This variable refers to the work role or the
help expected by the family from its sons. If respondents perceive
that their families have work or help expectations for them which
can only be fulfilled by staying in the local community, their own
plans to migrate will be retarded. In other words, respondents hav-
ing high or medium work or help obligations will plan to remain in
the home community to carry out such obligations to a much greater
extent than those who have no or slight work obligations within the
family. The latter group, on the other hand, will plan to migrate
in greater proportions than the former. The presence of such obli-
gations was thought to lead to plans to remain in the local community,
irrespective of the level of educational and occupational aspirations.
It was proposed that the relationship between such aspirations and
migration plans on the part of those who intend to carry out an act
of migration will be smaller for respondents having medium and high
family obligations than their counterparts who have slight or no
obligations. As the data revealed, however, this did not prove to
be true. If respondents believe that their aspirations cannot be
fulfilled locally, they will plan to migrate irrespective of the
level of family obligations. High levels of obligation, therefore,
did not counteract the influence of educational and occupational

aspirations on plans to leave the local community. On the other

l4l

hand, those who have low levels of aspirations and believe that such
aspirations can be achieved locally percentages increase from no
obligation to medium/high obligations. That is to say, when educa-
tional and occupational aspirations can be satisfied locally, a high
level of obligation will lead to plans to remain in the home community
in much greater proportions than is true of others. It is worth not-
ing, however, that the occupational aspiration variable differs from
the educational variable in the sense that the percentage of those
who aspire to professional jobs increases as one moves from lower
levels of obligation to higher; in contrast, in the case of higher
educational aspirations, proportions decrease. An explanation that
one might give for the former is that this group will expect to
migrate at a later stage when such obligations are fulfilled or
when someone else will carry them out.

The last and the least predictive variable related to plans
to migrate was the attitude toward the community's social provisions.
Data presented in Chapter Four showed a negative correlation between
this variable and migration plans. Those who evaluated negatively
their community's social provisions, such as educational facilities,
roads, shopping centers, etc. will plan to migrate in much greater
proportions than those who indicated that they were satisfied with
such facilities. Like the other non-instrumental variables (commu-
nity satisfaction and family obligation), educational and occupa—
tional aspirations predominate in the migration decisions of rural
youth, when community evaluation is used as a control variable. It
was thought that the relationship between educational and occupa-

tional aspirations would be weaker at low levels of community

142

evaluation than at higher levels. In other words, those who evaluate
their community's social provisions negatively will plan to migrate
irrespective of their aspirations. However, this did not prove to

be true. At lower levels of community evaluation, educational and
occupational aspirations played a major role in migration plans on
the part of those who intend to leave the local community. The pat-
tern, thus, is similar to that demonstrated above between educational
and occupational aspirations and migration plans where family obliga—
tion was used as a control variable.

The precedence of the respondents' aspirations over their atti-
tude toward their community's social provisions in explaining migra-
tion plans was further confirmed by answers elicited from those who
are definitely planning to migrate and those who were not sure whether
to leave or stay (73.4% of all respondents). Of these, 26.3 percent
said they would stay in the home community if their educational aspi-
rations could be provided there, compared to 12.7 percent who indi-
cated that they would remain provided that their occupational aspi-
ration could be fulfilled there. Those who said they would remain
in the home community if both educational and occupational aspira-
tions could be achievable there amounted to 51.8 percent. The re-
maining 9.2 percent indicated that they would stay only if the com-
munity's social provisions were improved.

Structural Factors Influencing the Dependent
and Independent variables

 

Cultural orientation of the respondents' family, socio-economic

status as measured by the father's occupation and the birth order of

 

 

 

 

T43

the respondent were the major structural variables thought to influ-
ence the individual's aspirations and attitudes, and in turn would
influence migration plans.

The cultural orientation of the respondents' family was meas-
ured by means of a ten item scale developed as a part of the analy-
sis. Those families scoring low on the scale were then classified
as being "traditional," whereas those scoring high on the scale were
considered "modern." The cultural background of respondents proved
to have an influence in shaping the respondent's attitudes and plans
with respect to his future life style. Respondents from traditional
families had significantly lower levels of occupational aspirations.
They also aspired to lower occupations compared with their counter-
parts from modern families. Such occupations such as clerk, primary
school teacher, and farming do not necessitate these respondents to
go for further education since they are provided in the local commu-
nity. Thus, respondents with this background tend not to have higher
levels of educational aspirations. Respondents from modern families,
on the other hand, had significantly higher levels of occupational
aspiration. They aspire to professional occupations such as physician,
engineer, lawyer and the like and also tend to want to go for further
education beyond high school. In regard to their satisfaction with
the relationships in the community, respondents from traditional
families had higher levels of community satisfaction than did others.
In contrast, higher proportions of those from modern families were
dissatisfied with their community relationships. The same pattern,
however, holds for community evaluation, where traditionals tended

to evaluate the facilities provided in the community more positively

144

than did others.

As a result of differences between these two groups in their
educational and occupational aspirations, and in their attitude
toward their community's relationships and social provisions, those
from modern families have greater tendencies to migrate than others.
Hence, those from traditional families tend to remain in the local
community in a greater proportion than others. This, however, is
understandable since those who aspire to low occupations are those
who are not going for further education, either by terminating
their schooling career or by attending the teaching institute pro-
vided in the area which would prepare them to be primary and pre-
paratory school teachers. Those from modern families, on the
other hand, who aspire to higher levels of occupations tend to
go for further education in order to reach these occupations, and
therefore have to leave their community to pursue these goals.

Socio-economic status, as measured by father's occupation,
was the second structural variable which was thought to be directly
related to rural adolescents' educational and occupational aspira-
tions, and therefore their migration plans. Our data seemed to
support this assumption in that a greater proportion of those who
come from families whose fathers hold higher or lower professional
jobs aspire to higher levels of educational and occupational aspi-
ration than any other subgroup. As an apparent consequence, they
have greater tendency to migrate than others. In contrast, those
who aspire to lower educational and occupational aspiration levels

are those whose head of household has a manual occupation. These

145

respondents, however, tend to stay in the local community in higher
proportions than others.

The third structural factor was the respondents' birth order.
The research results revealed that this variable did not play a
major role in shaping who goes for higher education or who leaves
or stays in the home community. Although there were differences
between respondents with respect to their aspirations and migration
plans, these differences were not significant and in fact were in
the direction opposite to that predicted. A greater proportion of
respondents who are the eldest in their families aspire to higher
levels of educational and occupational aspirations than others, but
they plan to migrate in smaller proportions than others. This in-
consistent finding, however, is attributed to the very high propor-
tion of respondents whose position in the family is the third or
younger. Almost 62 percent of all respondents were third or younger,

compared to only l7 percent who were the eldest in their family.

Conclusions

 

In the previous section a summary of the results of this study
was presented. These results indicate that the theoretical frame-
work used allowed one to predict migration plans among adolescents
in a rural area in Libya. Furthermore, the theoretical model which
guided this research has generally been validated in a very differ-
ent culture from the one in which it had been tested previously.

An overriding assumption made in this research, however, was
that migration planning and intent to migrate are voluntary in

nature. That is, the decision is made by the individual, that he

146

is not migrating with the family in accordance with a decision made
by parents. It is also assumed that parents and other family mem-
bers are remaining in the home community. With respect to the var-
iables influencing migration planning, one of the basic assumptions
guiding the study was that adolescents' instrumental aspirations--
occupational and educational aspirations-~would play a major role
in the decision to migrate among rural adolescents in Libya, given
the fact that the country is going through a transitional period.
That is, social, economic and political changes are taking place
which resulted in the need for professional, skilled and highly
trained personnel. This in turn inspired many young people to
leave their community and to seek higher education and consequently
higher social mobility.

From a comparative point of view, it was clearly demonstrated
in this research that instrumental aspirations, in particular educa-
tional and occupational aspirations, are more predictive of migra-
tion plans among rural adolescents in Libya than any other variables
examined. This finding coincides with the great majority of American
studies as to the motivations of adolescents and rural migrants which
show the importance of instrumental aspirations in determining migra-
tion plans, despite the fact that contrary hypotheses were often pro-
posed. The salience of instrumental aspirations in predicting
migration is understandable in the case of Libya which is going
through a transition from a traditional to a modernized society.

In regard to the relationship between family obligations and migra-

tion plans, the findings from this study differ markedly from the

147

majority of American studies. Whereas family obligations are impor-
tant in predicting migration plans among rural Libyan youth, they
are of relatively minor significance in determining migration in
modern American society.

In regard to the non-instrumental variable, on the other
hand, it was hypothesized that community satisfaction, defined
as "attachments to particular people, and to style of relationships
in the home community" (RPC, NC-l8, 1957:2), when used as a control
variable, would play only a minor role in migration planning. In
Operationalizing the community satisfaction variable, it was assumed
that variations in the level of satisfaction among adolescents could
result from two sources. It could result, as Williams (196l) sug-
gested, from the criteria utilized to evaluate the level of satisfac-
toriness of community relationships. If these criteria or values
were of a "modern" order, then the evaluation of the local community,
which is largely traditional in structure, would be less favorable
than would be the case if traditional values applied. The former
type of evaluation could lead to an estrangement from the traditional
social structure and culture of the rural community on the part of
rural adolescents. Variations in the level of satisfaction with
the local community could also result from the process in which the
adolescents compare their own situation with that of significant
others, leading to either satisfaction or dissatisfaction with the
local community. Feelings of dissatisfaction would in turn lead
to estrangement from particular people and relationships in the home

community. The effects of both are assumed to be effectively indexed

148

by the community satisfaction scale.

These two sources of community satisfaction were assumed not
to be widespread in the rural areas of Libya, and were assumed to
play only a minor role in migration planning. Social mobility motives,
however, were assumed to take precedence over the community satisfac-
faction variable. The results of this research support this point of
view. When community satisfaction was used as a control variable, 5
the relationship between educational and occupational aspirations and
migration plans is stronger at low levels of community satisfaction
than at any other values. This was also true with respect to the
other two non-instrumental variables. These findings were further
supported in that 73 percent (369) of the respondents who indicated
they are definitely planning to migrate or who are seriously con-
sidering leaving the home community, 51.8 percent out of these respon-
dents indicated they would remain in the home community if their
educational and occupational aspirations could be fulfilled locally.
On the other hand, 26.3 percent would only stay if their educational
aspirations were provided locally. And another 9.2 percent said that
they would remain there only if the home community's social provisions
were brought up to their expectations. This latter reason cannot be
considered as a direct proof of cultural or structural estrangement
with the community, but rather of the intrusion of other instrumental
aspirations, such as better schools, libraries, roads, and other
facilities. At the same time, the relative backwardness of these
social provisions may be a direct consequence of how the community

is structured.

149

As the literature discussed in Chapter Three reveals, such dis-
satisfaction with the community relationships is more effective in
causing migration in the industrial societies such as the United
States and other Western countries. However, this pattern is thought
to be unlikely in the rural communities of Libya where traditional
rural values are widespread. However, instrumental aspirations were
proven in this study to take precedence in explaining migration plans
among adolescents. Thus, if the rural values that presently support
the rural social structure were to change or vanish (due to the process
of modernization and development aimed at every single community),
these conclusions may have to be reconsidered. Migration then would
take place even if instrumental aspirations could be satisfied locally.
A comparative study of a number of rural communities varying along
continua of the level of development and modernization and educa-
tional and occupational opportunity structure, would lead to very
fruitful findings about the dimensions on which migrants are selected,
and should be considered in future research.

The usefulness of structural variables was demonstrated in this
study. The adolescents' aspirations and attitudes were proven to be
structured by the cultural orientation and socio-economic status of
their families. The cultural values of rural families tend to lead
to different evaluations of such aSpirations. It was evident from this
study that those respondents from families of traditional background
have lower levels of educational and occupational aspiration, higher
levels of community satisfaction, and tend to evaluate the community

social provisions more positively than their peers from families of

150

modern background. And as a result of these differences, a higher pro-
portion of the former group plan to remain in the home community. These
findings tended to assume the same pattern with respect to socio-economic
status. The appropriate interpretation that might be suggested for
these findings is that traditional families, due to their value system,
tended to have a low value for higher education which could be comple-
mented by purely economic factors such as the need for immediate income
from the adolescent to support the family would lead to either termina-
tion of schooling and engaging in an occupation which is provided
locally and, therefore, remain in the home community. However, the
reader should be cautioned that there is no direct evidence for this
interpretation from this research, but rather an indirect support is
found where a greater proportion of those from traditional families
who plan to remain in the home community indicated that they aspire to
occupations that are provided locally, as compared to those from modern
families who plan to migrate. For those from modern and high socio-
economic status who are planning to stay, one could speculate that a
complex of social mobility aspirations and attitudes intervened other
than educational and occupational aspiration. Future research, however,
should incorporate directly the views and evaluation of the adolescents'
families on such aspiration and migration plans.

The role of the birth order of the respondent in educational and
occupational aspirations and migration plans was not anticipated.
Those from higher and lower birth orders tend to have almost equal
aspirations. In other words, there was no significant differences

among the two groups in their aspiration and migration plans. Further,

151

this variable did not play a major role in selecting who would go for
higher education and, of course, who would leave the community.

In conclusion, the theoretical model which guided this research
study has generally been validated, although some modifications are
necessary at various points. Educational and occupational aspirations
are the major variables involved in the migration planning of rural
adolescents. Due to the rapid social changes through which Libya is
passing, and the need for professional, well trained and skilled per-
sonnel, the level of these aspirations has been rising continuously
over the past twenty years, and the pace has been accelerating since
the early seventies. On the other hand, rural economic structures
have remained relatively static and are not keeping up with these
aspirations. The situation in which there are discrepancies between
aspirations and opportunities in the rural communities has resulted
in increasing rates of migration.

Some aspirations other than educational and occupational aspi-
rations have also been shown to be important and should be considered
in future research. Those relating to the community's social pro-
visions have proven to be important. Community social provisions,
however, are important only to those with high levels of educational
and occupational aspirations. And since the educational and occu-
pational aspirations of these particular respondents cannot realis-
tically be fulfilled within small rural communities or rural trade

centers, these aspirations alone would predict migration.

152

Limitations of the Study

 

Although the way the study was designed generally proved to be
relatively satisfactory in terms of providing some explanation to
questions concerning migration plans among rural adolescents, there
were, however, some limitations in this study which should be noted
here so that future research may be strengthened.

One of these limitations is the fact that this study is limited
to one area of Libya which consists of one center (Gharian town) and
its surrounding communities. A comparative study of a number of rural
communities that vary widely in social and economic attributes, such
as the structure of the educational and occupational opportunities
and the level of development and modernization, would more adequately
test the basic assumption of the study that such variation would lead
to variation in the type of migrants leaving these communities. The
effect of variations in the structure of adolescents' aspirations
would also be observed in such a study.

Still another limitation concerned the scale used to measure
the attitudes toward community's social provisions. The scale was
constructed in too summary a manner, insufficient attention having
been given to the universe of relevant items, and to the selection
of items from this universe. It was assumed that "community's
social provisions" were viewed as a single dimension by respondents.
However, the items included in the scale varied very widely in refer-
ence. Some of the items referred to recreational facilities, others
referred to the schools, roads and shopping facilities. It is highly

likely that this is a multidimensional construct, however. Any

153

future research, therefore, should attempt to separate these dimensions
from one another. This could be done by devising a number of scales
for each area as identified by the researcher.

Some of the same problems arise for community satisfaction.

The scale contains two distinct ideas. The first six items refer

to value or cultural differences among adolescents, which leads to
differences in evaluations of satisfactoriness of the local community
relationships. The remaining five items refer to feelings of rela-
tive deprivation in these relationships. As a result of this dis-
tinction, the relationship between the conceptual definition of the
variable and its operationalization is rather thin. It is, there-
fore, appropriate in future research to treat these two dimensions
separately.

The measurement of the occupational aspirations of the respon-
dents was a problematic one. The scale used was not a sufficient
index of social mobility in that the majority of the respondents
clustered around one or two particular groups of occupations. Given
the scarcity of information at the local community level concerning
occupational opportunities, and also the idea that the educational
system in Libya was tied to the occupational structure posed some
problems in measuring this variable. The respondent was asked in
an open type question about his ideal and realistic future occupation.
Responses tended to be centered around certain occupations that the
respondents were familiar with. It is strongly recommended that in
future research a list of occupations should be given to the respon-

dents to choose from. The other limitation concerning this variable

154

has to do with the scale used to order the responses in relative
prestige. The items were presented to the respondents according

to their prestige level by judges. This method, however, is limited
in its ability to discriminate in prestige rankings between occupa-
tions in the upper and middle levels of the prestige hierarchy. It
is, therefore, strongly recommended that if this method is to be
used in future research that the items must be presented in purely
random order. It is also possible that a North-Hatt scale type
should be constructed to more adequately measure this variable.
DeSpite the limitations of the design just mentioned, the study
contributes some significant knowledge concerning social psycholog-

ical factors in migration phenomena.

Policy Implications

The findings from this study have utility for policy makers
in Libya, particularly in suggesting answers to persistent questions
raised by the development planners. Among those questions are:
should students be permitted to freely leave their rural communi-
ties, in the process of developing rapidly, in order to reside in
the burgeoning cities? What policies should be devised to properly
control and manage the outward flow of young people? Do the local
and national developmental plans and projects match the educational
and occupational aspirations and plans of young people?

From a practical standpoint, educational and developmental pro-
grams aimed at helping young people make intelligent lifetime career
decisions must be reckoned with, and must be tailored to the social-

economic conditions and needs of the local communities and the

155

nation. The study suggests that educational administrators, guidance
counselors and other school officials should initiate and institute
programs and curricula that are sensitive to the local-national
balance between educational and personnel needs of a developing
society. In this respect, career orientation programs as well as
programs dealing with the development process and plans, must be
integrated with the school curriculum.

Further, this study implies that vocational education pro-
grams to meet local and/or national labor market needs should be
introduced in the study area. Such programs should receive major
emphasis and should coincide with the introduction of some indus-

tries in the area.

APPENDIX A
THE QUESTIONNAIRE

APPENDIX A
THE QUESTIONNAIRE

What This Study Is About

 

Every year thousands of students in high school like yourself
face the problems of choosing a life career and of selecting an area
where they would like to live. The purpose of this study, hence, is
to gain a clearer understanding of these problems faced by young
people who are about to leave high school. You and only you can
provide the answers. By carefully and sincerely filling out this
questionnaire, you will show us how these important problems look
from your point of view. This information will be of great value

in develOping programs for future high school students.

Please follow the directions

 

1. Read each item carefully. Then answer it to the best of your

knowledge.

2. Be sure to answer each question completely. The outcome of
the study will be successful only if you are careful to provide

accurate and complete information.

3. Do not hesitate to ask for help from members of the project

staff if you are in doubt or do not understand an item.

156

157

FIRST: GENERAL INFORMATION ABOUT YOURSELF

1. Your name

 

2. Your address

 

 

3. How old are you? (Years)

Your date of birth:

 

*(Month) (Day)' (Yearj'

4. Your major in school:
( ) Science
( ) Arts and Letters
5. Do you live:
( ) on farm
( ) in the country but not on a farm
( ) in a village or town
6. With whom do you live regularly?
) own parents
) a parent and step-parent
) one parent only

(

(

(

( ) grandparents
( ) uncle or aunt
(

) others (write in who they are)

 

 

SECOND: YOUR HOME AND PARENTS

Now we would like to have some information about your family and

the place where you live.

153

7. Your parents are:
( ) both living together
( ) both dead
( ) father is dead
( ) mother is dead
( ) divorced
8. Your mother (or step-mother)
( ) has no job outside the home
( ) has a part-time job outside the home
( ) has a full-time job outside the home
( ) (mother not living or not at home)
9. Your father's main occupation: (or was, if dead or retired)

(Specify the kind of work he does and not where he works)

 

10. Your father's part-time occupation is, at present:

 

 

ll. If your father is self-employed (owns a farm, some kind of busi-
ness or has a profession), state exactly the kind of business or
profession?

l2. If your father is a farmer, or owns a plot(s) of land, please state:
a. Size of the farm or plot(s) in hectares: ( )
b. How many sheep are owned: ( )
c. Do your father have any tractors?

( ) Yes
()No

If "Yes," how many? ( )

13.
14.
15.
16.
17.

18.

159

Where was your father born?
Where was your mother born?

How old is your father (approximately)

 

How old is your mother (approximately)

 

What is the highest level of schooling completed by your father

and mother?

Father Mother

a. Illiterate (
b. Read and write (
c. A primary school education (
d. Some high school education (

(
f. Some vocational education (

(

9. Completed vocational education

( )

( )

( )

( )

( ) e. High school graduate
( )

( )

( ) h. Some college

( )

( )

)
)
)
)
)
)
)
)
)
)

(
i. College graduate (
j. Other (indicate the kind) (
Indicate your father's approximate income last year?
Under L.D. 999
L.D 1,000 - 2,999
L.D 3,000 - 3,999
L.D 4,000 - 4,999

( )

( )

( )

( )

( ) L.D 5,000 5,999
( ) L.D 6,000 - 6,999
( ) L.D 7,000 - 7,999
( ) L.D 8,000 and over
( )

Don't know; no idea

19.
20.

21.

22.

23.

24.

25.

26.

160

How many people live in your house at home?

 

How many older, living brothers do you have?

 

How many younger, living brothers do you have?

 

How many older, living sisters do you have?

 

How many younger, living sisters do you have?

 

What type of dwelling does your family occupy?
( ) Villa

( ) Apartment

( ) Hoosh

( ) Others (specify)

 

How many separate rooms in your house?

 

What type of water source do you have in your house?
( ) Municipal piped water
( ) Shared private reservoir or well
( ) Own private reservoir or well
What type of lighting do you have in your house?
) Electricity
) Kerosene

(
( ) Gas
(
(

) Other (specify)

 

Do you have the following items in your house?

a. A piped water tap? Yes ( )
b. Hot water on tap? Yes ( )
c. An indoor flush toilet? Yes ( )
d. A bathroom in the house? Yes ( )
e. A telephone? Yes ( )
f. A radio? Yes ( )

No
No
N0
No
N0
N0

161

 

g. A T.V. set? Yes ( ) No ( )
h. A washing machine? Yes ( ) No ( )
i. A kitchen range? Yes ( ) No ( )
j. An electric or gas cooker? Yes ( ) N0 ( )
k. 00 you eat your meals in the kitchen? Yes ( ) No ( )
l. Does your family have a car? Yes ( ) No ( )
m. 00 you have a carpet in the sitting
room? Yes ( ) No ( )
n. 00 you have linoleum on floors? Yes ( ) No ( )
If yes, which rooms?
27. Does your family:
a. Get a daily newspaper? Yes ( ) No ( )
b. Get a weekly magazine? Yes ( ) No ( )
0. Listen to the news every day? Yes ( ) No ( )
28. Is your father a member of any organization (Farm Federation,
Labour Union)? Yes ( ) No ( )

THIRD: LEAVING YOUR HOME COMMUNITY:

 

All of us have feelings about the community in which we live.
There are things in it that we like and things that we do not like.
We want your honest opinion about the f01lowing questions as they apply
to your community.
29. As a place to live soon after graduation, how well do you like

your community?

a. Strongly dislike ( )

b. Dislike it ( )
c. Am indifferent ( )
d. Like it ( )

( )

e. Am enthusiastic about it

30.

31.

32.

33.

a.

162

After you are married and have a family, how well would you
like your community as a place to live?

a. Strongly dislike it ( )

b. Would dislike it ( )

c. Would be indifferent ( )

d. Would like it ( )

e. Would be enthusiastic about it ( )

Do you have the intention of moving away from your community
after graduation?

( ) Yes

( ) No

If "yes," what are your two main reasons?

a. First reason: ( )

 

0. Second reason: ( )

 

How definite are you about intending staying or moving from your
community after graduation?

a. Definite intention to move ( )

b. Indefinite whether to move or to stay ( )

c. Definite intention to remain in the community ( )

Below is a list of statements that express opinions about any
community. Read carefully and check the phrase most nearly repre-
senting your personal belief about the community in or near which
you live.

Strongly Strongly
Agree Agree Undecided Disagree Disagree

I am looking forward
to leaving this

community ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )

163

Strongly Strongly
Agree Agree Undecided Disagree Disagree

 

b. Any young people
looking for recog-
nition and new ex-
periences should
leave this community ( ) ( 1 ( ) ( ) ( )

c. Not much can be said
of this community,
its size, location

and climate ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )

d. No one seems to care
how young people get
on in this community ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )

e. It is difficult for
the people to get
together in anything ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )

f. There is too much
bickering among
people in this com-

munity ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
g. This community is not
too bad really ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )

h. The future of this
community looks

bright ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )

i. The people of this
community are very
friendly and help-
ful to one another ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )

j. This community is a
good place to live in ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )

k. I am very eager to
spend my life in this
community, if I can

at all. ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )

34. Some young people from your community have said that they would not
live there always, but only in a community which had certain

characteristics: How much do you agree or disagree with them?

Strongly
yAgree

164

Strongly
Agree Undecided Disagree Disagree

 

 

A place that is

nearer a big town

than the one you

live in (

A place that has bet-
ter roads than the
one you now live in (

A place that has bet-
ter primary and pre-

paratory schools than
the one you now live

1n

A place which is

nearer to libraries,
secondary schools

and other institu-
tions (

A place which allows

me to enjoy my time
off better than my

home community (

A place where a per—
son would not have to
go so far to enjoy
sports events, enter-
tainments like movies
and musical events (

A place that has better
facilities for games
than this one has (

A place where people
showed more interest

in community work,
organized clubs and
teams for young

people to play and
enjoy themselves (

A place where there
would be more young
people to spend spare
time and organize
games with

A place that is nearer
to shops and good
shopping facilities
than the one you live
in (

35.

36.

37.

38.

165

Now, suppose that you could enjoy all the amenities of the big
city in your home community, would you stay there permanently?

( ) Yes

( ) No

( ) Undecided

If you have some idea of leaving your home community for else-
where, is the fact that your home community lacks the amenities
that you would like it to have an important reason for this decision?
( ) Yes

( ) No

If yes, do you know of any place in which you could satisfy your
aspirations and which has all the amenities and advantages that
you would think are satisfactory?

( ) Yes

( ) No

( ) Don't know

If "Yes," where is this please? ( )

 

How strongly do you agree or disagree, that young people like
yourself should provide for themselves in the future the follow-
ing things?

Strongly Strongly
Agree Agree Undecided Disagree Disagree

 

A better house than
your parents have ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )

Electric lights and
power in the house ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )

A piped water supply
in the house ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )

Hot water on tap
in the house ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )

166

Strongly Strongly
Agree Agree Undecided Disagree Disagree

 

 

An indoor flush
toilet in the

house ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
A bathroom in the
house ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
A telephone in the
house ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )

A radio in the house ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
A T.V. set in the

house ( ) ( ) ( 1 ( ) ( )
A washing machine in

the house ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
A kitchen range in

the house ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )

An electric or gas
cooker in the house ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )

A dining room separ-

ate from the kitchen
in the house ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )

A car ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )

A daily newspaper

A
V
A
V
A
V
A
v
A
v

The house fully
furnished ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )

Carpets on the floors

of the house, at
least in the sitting

room ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )

. For those things you have just mentioned (and other things like them)
that you feel people should have, do you think that if you stay in
your home community or near it, that you will be able to achieve the
things you want?

( ) Yes

( ) No

( ) Not sure

40.

167

Now, supposing that you could get all these things by staying
around here, would you stay here permanently?

( ) Yes

()No

( ) Not sure

FOURTH: YOUR OBLIGATIONS TOWARD YOUR FAMILY

 

41.

42.

43.

Are you living with your family now?

( ) Yes

( ) No

If "No," where did you live for the last three years?

( )
Do you help out your family, or some other relation in any way?
( ) Yes

( )No

If "Yes," please give details of what you do:

 

 

 

Do you think that your family, or some other relation depend on
your help to any extent?

( ) Yes

( )No

If "Yes," how much:

( ) A great deal

( ) Somewhat

( ) Undecided

(

) Not very much

44.

45.

46.

47.

168

Now, if you were to leave your community and home, could somebody
else do the work that you are doing for them?

( ) Yes, very easily
( ) Yes, somewhat easily
( ) I don't know
( ) No, not very easily
( ) Not except with difficulty

Now, if your family (or some other relations) depend on you to
help them out at home to some extent, would you feel guilty

leaving your family to go to school or work, and live away from

home?
( ) Yes
( )No

If "Yes," how guilty would you feel:
( ) Very guilty
( ) Somewhat guilty
( ) Undecided
( ) Not very guilty

If you are helping out your family by working at home, for how

long will you be expected to do this?

 

 

If you are helping out your family by working at home, what do you
intend to do when you think your obligations to your family are

finished?

 

 

 

169

48. Now, if you are already earning, or when you will start earning
money, will you be expected to contribute some to the family?
( ) Yes
()No
If "Yes," do you think that your family might depend on you for
this support?

Yes, a great deal

Yes, somewhat

(
(
( Undecided
(

)
)
)
) No, not at all
49. Have you any younger brothers or sisters that have to be educated?

( ) Yes

()No

If "Yes," will you be expected to help them out in any way?

( ) Yes

()No

If "Yes," please give some particulars of what kind of help you

would be expected to give?

 

FIFTH: YOUR FUTURE OCCUPATION
Now that high school graduation is nearing, I would like to know
something about your plans f0r your future life's work.
50. If you could have any occupation you wanted, regardless of loca-
tion or the amount of training or experience required, what

occupation would you choose?

 

 

170

Now supposing that the occupation that you indicated as your
choice if it was obtainable locally, would you take it and stay?
( ) Yes
()No
5l. What kind of occupations are you now seriously considering as
a lifetime work?

a. First choice:

 

b. Second choice

52. What is the first occupation that you think you will get?

 

SIXTH: YOUR EDUCATION PLANS
53. Do you intend to get further training after high school?
( ) Yes
()No
( ) Don't know
If "Yes," what do you plan?

a. College? If so, where?

 

b. Trade school? If so, where?

 

( )
( )

c. ( ) Vocational school? If so, where?
( )

d. Other, what and where?

 

 

Now, supposing that the educational training you aspired to was
obtainable locally, would you stay?

( ) Yes

( )No

SEVENTH:

171

YOUR FUTURE, OCCUPATION AND PLACE OF RESIDENCE

54. TWenty years from now, what occupation do you expect to have?

 

55. Where do you expect to be living twenty years from now? (Be as

specific as possible.)

 

 

EIGHTH: OCCUPATIONAL PRESTIGE

56. Below is a list of occupations and you are asked to order these

occupations according to their prestigious status by placing

"l" to the highest and "2" to the second highest and so on until

the last one for each group of occupations.

I. Professional Technical and Related Workers

(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(

)
)
)
)
)
)
)
)
)
)

Doctor

Engineer

Judge

Secondary School Teacher
Preparatory School Teacher
School Principal
University Professor
Lawyer

Accountant

Pilot/Captain

II. Administrative, Executive and Related Worker

(
(
(

)
)
)

Businessman
Administrative Executive

Bank Executive

III.

IV.

VI.

VIII.

172

Clerk Workers

 

Clerk Supervisor

Civil Servant

( )
( )
( ) Transportation Foreman
( ) Postman

( )

Policeman

Sales Workers

 

Shop Manager

Sales Supervisor

( )

( )

( ) Salesman

( ) Insurance Agent
( ) Cashier in a Shop
( ) Hotel and Restaurant Supervisor

Farmers, Fishermen, Loggers and Related Workers

 

Agricultural Advisor
Farmers
Agricultural Labourer

Logger Labourer

(
(
(
(
(

vvvvv

Fishermen

Transportation and Communication Workers

 

( ) Bus Driver
( ) Taxi Driver
( ) Truck Driver

Crafts and Services Worker

 

( ) Mechanic
( ) Electrician

( ) Factory Worker (unskilled)

173

Carpenter

( )
( ) Tailor
( ) Barber
( ) Blacksmith
57. For the following list of occupations, please check off (X) all
those occupations that you feel you would be letting down your
family if you were to take them up:
Road Construction worker
Agricultural labourer
Unskilled factory worker
Street sweeper
Building construction worker
Hotel labourer
Laundry worker
Bakery worker

Bus conductor

Skilled factory worker

Bus driver

Ticket collector (in a bus)
Electrician/mechanic
Shoemaker

Blacksmith

Barber

Policeman

Soldier

( )
( )
( )
( )
( 1
( )
( )
( )
( )
( )
( ) Truck and heavy machinery driver
( )
( )
( )
( )
( )
( )
( )
( )
( )

Shop salesman

174

Postman

Foreman over labourers in a factory
Painter

Carpenter

Tailor

Cashier in a shop
Police officer

General clerk

Cashier in a bank
Journalist

Government official
Farmer

Primary school teacher
Agricultural advisor
Technician

Nurse

Insurance clerk
Secondary school teacher
Army officer
Accountant

Bank executive

Lawyer

Engineer

Pilot/Captain

Doctor

Judge

APPENDIX B
Scalogram Analysis of Occupational Prestige

in Gharian Province

APPENDIX B

Scalogram Analysis of Occupational Prestige
in Gharian Province

Using the same technique developed by Hannan (1967), Hannan
and Beegle (1969), a scale of occupational prestige was constructed
which then was used to measure the level of occupational aspiration
among high school seniors.

Question 57 in the schedule dealt with the respondents' evalu—
ations of the relative prestige level of occupations. This question
made use of a list of 46 occupations well known in the area. Occu-
pations were arranged in an ascending order of status according to
the author's viewpoint. In order to confirm this step, two indepen-
dent judges (a colleague from the University in Tripoli and a High
School teacher from the area) were asked to arrange the same list
in the same manner. As a result, a final modified list was developed
from the three versions and was presented to the students.

Question 57 asked "For the following list of occupations, please
check off (X) all those occupations that you feel you would be "let-
ting down your family if you were to take up." The lowest occupation
on the list was "Road Construction Worker" and the highest was "Judge."

Students were expected to reject or accept occupations on the
basis of their relative prestige alone, a point which was emphasized
to all respondents in the course of supervising the completion of
the schedule. The amount of prestige possessed by the particular

occupation--relative to that of the individual's own family--would

175

176

be determined by the responses to question 57 in terms of accepting
or rejecting certain occupations.

The assumption that has to be made at this point is that: if
all respondents ranked the occupation on the basis of their relative
prestige, a scalogram analysis should yield a unidimensional scale
of occupational prestige. That is, provided the scale meets all
the criteria of scalability required by the method (Hannan and
Beegle, l969z330). The item responses, therefore, were subjected
to the Guttman scalogram analysis, and two codes are utilized.

Those occupations which were rejected by the student as lower in
status than that of the family were coded (1), while occupations
accepted by the respondent were coded (O).

The number of respondents who rejected each occupation (item)
was calculated by using (l) as the cutting point, and as a result,
the list of the 46 occupations was reordered into a new matrix as
indicated by the number of times the occupation was rejected. The
results indicated that the respondents did not at all agree with the
judges' assessment of the relative prestige of these occupations.

The following table gives the resultant rank of the 46 occu-

pations, the original rank, and the total errors.

 

 

Sum of Final Original
Occupation Scores Rank Rank
Road Construction Worker 481 l 01
Street Sweeper 480 2 04
Laundry Worker 477 3 07
Hotel Labourer 470 4 06
Barber 468 5 l7

177

 

 

Sum of Final Original
Occupation Scores Rank Rank
Bakery Worker 460 6 08
Blacksmith 458 7 16
Building Construction Worker 457 8 05
Tailor 455 9 25
Bus Ticket Collector 451 10 13
Carpenter 442 ll 24
Postman 441 12 21
Bus Conductor 440 13 09
Unskilled Factory Laborer 437 14 03
Shoe Maker 435 15 15
Painter 422 16 23
Technician 406 17 35
Agricultural Laborer 405 18 02
Bus Driver 402 19 12
Shop Salesman 395 20 20
Truck Driver 385 21 11
Nurse 377 22 36
Primary School Teacher 344 23 33
Skilled Factory Worker 338 24 10
Electrician/Mechanic 336 25 14
Policeman 330 26 18
Government Official 327 27 31
Foreman 321 28 22
Insurance Clerk 320 29 37

178

 

 

Sum of Final Original

OccuPation Scores Rank Rank
Farmer 313 30 32
Cashier 295 31 26
Soldier 274 32 19
Agricultural Advisor 263 33 34
Police Officer 257 34 27
General Clerk 249 35 28
Cashier in a Bank 245 36 29
Army Officer 205 37 39
Journalist 179 38 30
Secondary School Teacher 160 39 38
Accountant 148 40 40
Judge 140 41 46
Lawyer 136 42 42
Bank Executive 125 43 41
Doctor 80 44 45
Pilot/Captain 77 45 44
Engineer 55 46 43

Total N = 503

Total Number of Errors = 3184

Coefficient of Reproducibility = .86

Minimum Marginal Reproducibility =

.76

179

For the 46 items scaled on the prestige continuum, a total
error of 3184 was produced, which gave a coefficient of reproduci-
bility of .86 which does not qualify as unidimensional by Guttman's
standards. The minimal marginal reproducibility, however, reached
.76, rather higher than the standard (.65) required. Also percent
of improvement was .10, rather lower than the standard required (.20).
This was due to the large number of items with considerable level of
error. In other words, the errors were not randomly distributed and
were concentrated around some items.

In order to meet the requirement for a unidimensional scale, a
series of a scalogram analyses were conducted by excluding items that
have more errors than non-errors and at the same time have relatively
low correlation with the other items. This series of steps produced
a unidimensional scale with a coefficient of reproducibility of .89
and the improvement over chance in reproducing patterns from the
total score reached .70 percent-~again somewhat higher than the
standard. On the other hand, percent improvement approached .19,
almost the desired standard of .20.

The method employed in Guttman-scaling 46 occupations accord—
ing to their perceived prestige resulted in a quasi-scale yielding
rankings which, in general, were satisfactory in the author's point
of view given the purpose of the study. The scale consists of 15
occupations ranked from highest prestige to the lowest prestige.
"Engineer" was ranked highest and "Technician" was ranked lowest

as shown in the final rank of the 15 occupations.

180

 

 

Rank Occupation (nu362:eof times rejected)

High Engineer 55
Pilot/Captain 77
Doctor 80
Bank Executive 125
Lawyer 136
Judge 14O
Accountant 148
Secondary School Teacher 160
Journalist 179
Police Officer 257
Agricultural Advisor 263
Farmer 313
Government Official 327
Primary School Teacher 344

Low Technician 406

 

APPENDIX C
INTERRELATIONSHIPS AMONG THE
INDEPENDENT VARIABLES

APPENDIX C
INTERRELATIONAHIPS AMONG THE
INDEPENDENT VARIABLES

TABLE 1

The relationship between educational aspirations
and community satisfaction

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Levels of Levels of Educational Aspirations
Community .
Satisfaction Low Med1um High
Low (0-3) 26.1 40.8 50.6
Medium (4-6) 38.0 29.1 35.1
High (7-9) 35.9 30.1 14.4

% 100.0 100.0 100.0
T01“ N 92 103 271

Gamma = -.329
TABLE 2
The relationship between educational aspirations
and occupational aspirations

Levels of Levels of Educational Aspirations
Occupational
Aspirations Low Medium High
Low 60.4 27.4 3.8
Medium 10.4 ' 12.3 18.8
High 29.2 60.4 77.4

% 100.0 100.0 100.0
ma” N 96 106 288

Gamma = .634

181

The relationship between educational aspirations and
family obligations

TABLE 3

182

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Levels of Levels of Educational Aspirations
Family
Obligations Low Medium High
None 9.8 11.0 17.7
Slight 29.3 56.0 56.7
Medium 60.9 33.0 25.6
% 100.0 100.0 100.0
10“” N 92 100 254
Gamna = -. 372
TABLE 4
The relationship between educational aspirations and
attitudes toward the community social provisions
Levels of Levels of Educational Aspirations
Community
Evaluation Low Medium High
Negative 30.9 60.0 67.0
(0-3)
Medium 32.0 24.8 20.7
(4-6)
Positive 37.1 15.2 12.3
(7-9)
% 100.0 100.0 100.0
Tm" N 97 105 286
Gamma = -.398

183

TABLE 5

The relationship between community satisfaction
and occupational aspirations

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Levels of Levels of Community Satisfaction
Occupational Low Medium High
Aspirations (0-3) (4-6) (7-9)
Low 9.5 24.5 34.3
Medium 10.5 19.5 18.6
High 80.0 56.0 47.1

% 100.0 100.0 100.0
T°ta' N 200 159 102

Gamma = -.443
TABLE 6
The relationship between community satisfaction
and family obligations

Levels of Levels of Community Satisfaction
Family Low Med1um‘T' High
Obligations (0-3) (4-6) (7-9)
None 20.9 8.4 9.4
Slight 53.3 57.3 39.6
Medium 25.8 34.3 51.0

% 100.0 100.0 100.0
T°ta‘ N 182 143 96

Gamma .323

184

TABLE 7

The relationship between community satisfaction and
attitudes toward the community social provisions

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Levels of Levels of Community Satisfaction
Community Low Medium High
Evaluation (0-3) (4-6) (7-9)
Negative 70.6 53.2 38.5
(0-3)
Medium 16.7 27.8 33.3
(4-6)
Positive 12.7 19.0 28.1
(7-9)

% 100.0 100.0 100.0
7°13] N 204 158 96

Gamma = -.356
TABLE 8

The relationship between occupational aspirations and
family obligations

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Levels of Levels of Occupational Aspirations
Family .
Obligations Low Med1um High
None 7.6 7.1 17.9
Slight 30.4 48.6 58.9
Medium 62.0 44.3 23.2
% 100.0 100.0 100.0
TOta] N 92 70 280

 

Gamma = -.501

185

TABLE 9

The relationship between occupational aspirations and
attitudes toward community social provisions

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Levels of Levels of Occupational Aspirations
Community
Evaluation Low ' Medium High
Negative 36.7 56.9 66.0
(0-3)
Medium 35.7 22.2 20.5
(4-6)
Positive 27.6 20.8 13.5
(7-9)
% 100.0 100.0 100.0
1°11” N 98 72 312
Gamma = —.350
TABLE 10
The relationship between family obligations and
attitudes toward community social provisions
Levels of Levels of Family Obligations
Community
Evaluation None Slight Medium
Negative 60.9 65.3 46.0
(0-3)
Medium 23.4 21.3 27.3
(4-6)
Positive 15.6 13.3 26.7
(7-9)
% 100.0 100.0 100.0
1°15" N 64 225 150

 

Gamma

= -.241

186

TABLE 11

Gamma statistic

Interrelationships among the independent variables
and dependent variable, as measured by

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Comnuni ty Occupa— Family Comnuni ty Mi gra-
Satis- tional Obli- Evalua- tion

faction Aspirations gations tion Plans
Educational -.329 .634 -.372 -.398 .753
Aspirations
Community -.443 .323 -.356 -.649
Satisfaction
Occupational -.501 -.350 .567
Aspirations
Family -.241 -.447
Obligations
Community -.414

Evaluation

 

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