MSU RETURNING MATERIALS: Place in book drop to remove this checkout from LIBRARIES . .asuncegsuL your record. FINES W111 : be charged if book is 1 returned after the date ‘ ‘stamped below. [I 6? 6‘1 M5 APPLICATION OF A SOCIO-TECHNICAL ASSESSMENT MODEL TO TELECOMMUNICATION PLANNING: A CASE STUDY IN SOUTH KOREA By Susanna Eun A DISSERTATION Submitted to Michigan State University in partial fulfiiiment of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY Coiiege of Communication Arts and Sciences Mass Media 1983 /J'/—/Vo/'] Copyright by SUSANNA EUN 1983 ABSTRACT APPLICATION OF A SOCIO-TECHNICAL ASSESSMENT MODEL TO TELECOMMUNICATION PLANNING: A CASE STUDY IN SOUTH KOREA By Susanna Eun This research applies a new policy-analysis tool, Socio-Technical Assessment, to explore the potential roles of telecommunication technol- ogies in developing countries. Based on data from field work in a rural village in South Korea, this study had three objectives: (1) to pro— vide guidelines for telecommunication policy planning in developing countries; (2) to expand the traditional scope of telecommunication policy research by introducing an analytic methodological tool; and (3) to test the validity and the utility of the Socio-Technical Assessment Model. The main parts of the study are divided into two areas: valida- tion of the Model, and operation of the Model. The validity of the Model was tested by examining a quality-of-life scheme, and by assessing the effects of telecommunication technologies within the village. The quality-of-life scheme was both reliable and valid enough to constitute a rational criterion in guiding strategies for technological develop- ment. The policy implications of empirical findings on effects of telecommunication technologies can be summarized under three aspects: (1) telecommunication technologies do have significant effects upon the quality of life; (2) in policy planning, a collective approach Eun encompassing diverse technologies in one frame seems more fruitful than piecemeal approaches; and (3) point-to-point telecommunication modes merit special consideration. The operation of the Model was designed for analyzing initial policy alternatives in long-range planning. With the areas confined to Nourishment, Shelter, Clothing, and Health, the Model identified telecommunication modes that transmit written messages without unrea- sonable delay at low cost to a large group of people as the most desirable choices. Newspaper and Postal Service were found to be the best choices in enhancing the overall quality of life, Television and Theatrical Films, the least desirable choices. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS In presenting this small piece of work, I would like to extend my deepest thanks to the guidance committee members and many others who made this work possible. First of all, I am most grateful to Dr. Baldwin who gave me a chance to try out the Ph.D. business. His fairness and intellectual encouragement has been extremely helpful. Dr. Muth, who served as the guidance committee chair, has provided numerous emotional support and cheer, without which life would have been senseless. Prof. Murray, for all his insightfulness and warmth, deserves special thanks. I am also grateful to Dr. Abel for providing assistantship. And there was a man who molded my brain for all these years. Dr. Montgomery, the finest of mankind, and the hardest of all to please, has served as a true mentor throughout my Ph.D. years. Believe me Dr. Montgomery, I did my best not to produce another "pathetic" diSsertation. To my parents, to sum up my deepest gratitude, I dedicate this dissertation to you two. My husband, who has endured a long separation, deserves the greatest credit. Without his love and understanding, I could have never finished the Ph.D. works. There are many others to be remembered. Many people in Wa-Bu who fiercely helped me out in collecting data, Ann Alchin of the Telecom- munications Department, Michelle and Martha of the Metallurgy, Material Science, and Mechanics Department, and many of my friends who shared joys and sorrows with me. To all of you, I extend my thanks. TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES ooooooooooooooooooooooooo LIST OF FIGURES ......................... LIST OF APPENDICES ooooooooooooooooooooooo INTRODUCTION ....................... Problem Statement ................... Purpose of the Study .................. Assumptions and Research Questions ........... Testing Validity of the Model ............ Operation of the Model ................ Definition of Terms .................. Structure of the Study ................. Overview ........................ LITERATURE REVIEW ..................... Theory of Development ................. Economics ...................... Socio-Psychology .................. Political Science .................. Quality—of-Life Indexes . . .g, ............ {Telecommunication and Development ............ 'Technology Assessment ................. Appropriate Technology and Technology Assessment . . . . Overview ...................... . . . . THE SOCIO—TECHNICAL ASSESSMENT MODEL. .‘ .......... General Description of the Model ............ Operationalization of the Model ............ l. Definition of Objectives ............ 2. Delineation of the Scope of Assessment ..... 3. Construction of the Model ............ 4. Validation of the Model ............. 5. Operation of the Model ............. Overview ........................ TABLE OF CONTENTS (continued) Page CHAPTER IV. COLLECTION OF DATA .................... 47 Socio—Economic Conditions of the Village ....... 47 Telecommunication Environment of the Village ..... 5l Data-Collection Process ................ 54 . Sampling among the Villagers .......... 54 2. Inventory Schedule of Telecommunication Modes. . 65 3. Panel Discussion among Experts ......... 7l 4. Evaluation of Demands for Technical Characteristics to Activate Technical Functions. 74 5. Interviews with the Decision- Makers ...... 78 Overview ....................... 8l V. VALIDATION OF THE MODEL ................. 84 The Quality-of-Life Scheme .............. 84 Telecommunications and the Quality of Life ...... 112 Overview ....................... l26 VI. OPERATION OF THE MODEL .................. l27 Phase I ........................ l27 Phase II ....................... l3l Phase III ....................... l33 Phase IV ....................... 153 Overview ........................ l53 VII. CONCLUSIONS AND FUTURE DIRECTIONS ............ l55 Conclusions ...................... l55 Quality of Life .................. l56 Effects of Telecommunications Technolgies ..... l59 Operation of the Model ............... l6l Future Directions ................... 166 Final Discussion ................... l74 APPENDICES ........................... 176 REFERENCES ........................... l99 Table Table Table Table Table Table Table Table Table Table Table Table Table Table Table Table U1 0‘ 0 00V 14. LIST OF TABLES Page Employment by Occupation in South Korea and Na-Bu . . . l78 Increase of GNP per cap. in South Korea (1974-l980) . . l79 Penetration Ratio of Telephone in South Korea, Na-Bu, and. Seoul (1981) ................... l8O Distribution of Education, Income, Age, and Sex among the Subjects (N=200) ................. 58 Mean of Education, Income, Age of Five Societal Sectors and of the Total Subjects ............... 59 Mean of the Basic Human Needs and the Overall Satisfac— tion Level of Five Societal Sectors and the Total Subjects ....................... 61 Mean of Access to the Telecommunication MOdes (N=200) . 63 Mean of Frequency of Using the Telecommunication Modes (N=200) ........................ 65 Technical Characteristics of the Telecommunication Modes ......................... 72 Demands for the Technical Functions to Promote the P, E, F, J Components of Nourishment ........... 75 Demands for the Technical Functions to Promote the P, E, F, J Components of Shelter ............. 75 Demands for the Technical Functions to Promote the P, E, F, J Components of Clothing ............ 76 Demands for the Technical Functions to Promote the P, E, F, J Components of Health ............. 76 Demands for the Technical Characteristics to Activate the Technical Functions ................ 77 Mean of the Overall Satisfaction Level of the Villagers as Estimated by the Decision-Makers and the Sample Subjects . . ..................... 79 Table Table Table Table Table Table Table Table Table Table Table Table Table Table Table Table 29. 30. Page Decision-Makers' Weight Assignment to the P, E, F, J Goals ........................ 8O Decision—Makers' Weight Attachment to the Five Societal Sectors ................... 8l Reliability Estimate of the Quality-of-Life Scheme with 17 Items ..................... 87 Reliability Estimate of the Quality-of—Life Scheme with l4 Items ..................... 88 Analysis-of—Variance Test for the Quality-of—Life Scheme with l7 Items .................. l85 Hotelling's T—Squared Equality-of-Means Test for the Quality-of—Life Scheme with 17 Items ....... T86 Correlation Coefficients between the Basic Human Needs and the Overall Satisfaction Index §_ ...... 91 Multiple Regression with the Basic Human Needs on the Overall Satisfaction Index S. ........... 94 Correlation Matrix of the l6 Basic Human Needs ..... l87 Factor Matrix of the 16 Basic Human Needs: Maximum— Likelihood Non—Rotated Solution ............ 98 Factor Matrix of the 16 Basic Human Needs: Principal- Factoring Quartimax-Rotation Solution ......... l02 Factor-Score Coefficients of the 16 Basic Human Needs: Maximum—Likelihood Non-Rotated Solution ........ lO9 Correlation Coefficients between Access to the Telecommunication Modes and the Overall Satisfaction Index §_ ........................ 113 Effects of Education, Income, Profession to the Access to the Telecommunication Modes: Three-Nay Analysis— of—Variance Tests ................... 115 Mean of Total Access Score by Education, Income, and Profession Breakdowns ................. l88 Effects of Education, Income, and Profession on the Overall Satisfaction Index S; Three-Nay Analysis- of-Variance Tests ................... ll7 vii Table Table Table Table Table Table Table Table Table Table Table 36. 37. 38. 39. 40. 4l. 42. Effects of Access to the Telecommunication Modes to the Overall Satisfaction Index S; Analysis-of- Covariance Tests . oooooooooooooooooo Correlation Coefficients between Frequency of Using the Telecommunication Modes and the Overall Satisfaction Index S ............. Effects of Education, Income, and Profession on the Frequency Scores: Three-Way Analysis-of- Variance Tests . . Mean of Total Frequency Score by Education, Income, and Profession Breakdowns .............. Effects of Frequency of Using the Telecommunication Modes on the Overall Satisfaction Index S; Analysis-of-Covariance Tests ............. Factor Matrix of the Basic Human Needs for the Professionals: Maximum-Likelihood Non-Rotated Solution ..... oooooooooooooooooo Factor Matrix of the Basic Human Needs for the Clerical Workers: Solution ..... Maximum—Likelihood Non-Rotated Factor Matrix of the Basic Human Needs for the Commercial Sector: Solution ..... Maximum-Likelihood Non-Rotated Factor Matrix of the Basic Human Needs for the Non-Agricultural Laborers: Maximum-Likelihood Non-Rotated Soultion ................. Factor Matrix of the Basic Human Needs for the Farmers: Maximum-Likelihood Non-Rotated Solution. . . Expected Rate of Increment of the Overall Quality of Life of the Villagers Attributed by the Telecommunication Modes from the Provision of the Basic Human Needs viii Page ll9 l2l l23 l89 l25 l90 l9l l92 l93 l52 Figure Figure Figure Figure Figure Figure Figure N—J w 0101-5 \1 LIST OF FIGURES Categorization of Human Goals ........... Conceptual Scheme of the Socio-Technical Assessment Model ................. Measurement Scheme of the Socio-Technical Assessment Model ................. Map of Korea ................... Map of Wa-Bu ................... A Restricted Regression Model of the Quality-of- Life Scheme .................... An Unrestricted Regression Model of the Quality-of-Life Scheme .............. Page 3l 4O 42 l76 l77 lOS lO7 LIST OF APPENDICES Appendix A. Maps ............................ Figure 4. Map of Korea .................. Figure 5. Map of Wa—Bu .................. B. Backgrounds of the Sample Site ............... Table l. Employment by Occupation in South Korea and Wa-Bu Table 2. Increase of GNP per capita in South Korea (l974—80) Table 3. Penetration Ratio of Telephone in South Korea, Seoul, and Wa-Bu (1981) ............. Questionnaire Items ..................... Reliability Estimate of the Quality-of—Life Scheme ..... Table 20. Analysis-of—Variance Test with 17 Items Table 21. Hotelling's Equality—of-Means test with 17 Items ..................... Correlation among the Basic Human Needs ........... Table 24. Correlation Matrix of the 16 Basic Human Needs . Telecommunication Usage among the Subjects ......... Table 30. Mean of Total Access Score by Education, Income, Profession Breakdowns ......... Table 35. Mean of Total Frequency of Usage Score by Education, Income, Profession Breakdowns . . . Relationship between the Basic Human Needs and the Canonical Human Goals in Each Societal Sector ........ Table 37. Factor Matrix of the Basic Human Needs for the Professionals: Maximum—Likelihood Non-Rotated Solution .............. Table 38. Factor Matrix of the Basic Human Needs for the Clerical Workers: Maximum-Likelihood Non-Rotated Solution .............. Table 39. Factor Matrix of the Basic Human Needs for the Commercial Sector: Maximum—Likelihood Non-Rotated Solut1on .............. Page 176 176 177 178 178 179 180 181 185 185 186 187 187 188 188 189 190 190 191 192 Appendix G. (con't) Table 40. Factor Matrix of the Basic Human Needs for the Non-Agricultural Laborers: Maximum- Likelihood Non-Rotated Solution ........ Table 41. Factor Matrix of the Basic Human Needs for the Farmers: Maximum-Likelihood Non—Rotated Solution ................... H. Mathematical Procedure of the Socio—Technical Assessment Model ........................... xi Page 193 194 195 CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION Problem Statement Formulation of telecommunication policies in the developing countries has largely been problematic. In the absence of adequate guidelines, expansion of telecommunication technologies in the developing countries has concentrated in the urban and the few industrial sectors where transaction activities are dominant. The studies on telecommunication policies of the developing countries, most of which view the ultimate purpose of telecommunication as bringing the market mechanism into full swing, have not been suc- cessful in rectifying the imbalance of telecommunication services in those countries. Ignored are such matters as access to information sources and the demand for various types of information on the part of the rural populations. Although some developing countries started to show interest in expanding telecommunication service for the rural sector, they often found themselves frustrated because of the lack of policy guidelines for planning allocation of public resources. The lack of adequate guidelines can be attributed to two major factors: inadequate theoretical framework in telecommunication re- search in the context of the development process, and the absence of an analytically-oriented policy tool. The theoretical framework commonly adopted in studies of telecom- munication in the developing countries suffers from three major short- comings. First, it considers the prime function of telecommunication, notably that of mass media, to be the creation of attitudes leading to l higher economic productivity. The need for information to aid the provision of fundamental human needs is not given special attention. Second, it neglects the adverse impacts of telecommunication technologies. Much of earlier work (Lerner, 1958; Schramm, 1964; Rogers, 196 ) discussed the benefits of telecommunication technologies, ignoring the potential harmful effects. A few studies elaborate the adverse impacts of telecommunication technologies in the developing countries (Lent, 1975; Golding, 1974; Schiller, 1975-1976), but they fail to suggest policy alternatives. Third, the role of telecommunica- tion focuses on the effects of mass media, with little attention given to the point-to-point technologies such as telephone, telegraph, or postal service. In the absence of a holistic frame in which effects of both mass media as well as point-to-point technologies can be assessed, telecommunication policy studies are characterized by fragmental approach and short-sightedness. Closely related to the problem of an inadequate theoretical basis are the difficulties confronting the methodology area. For instance, a group of studies presented empirical findings that support positive effects of telecommunication technologies in the developing countries (Inkeles & Smith, 1974; Rogers & Shoemaker, 1971). Policy implications of those studies are tenuous, however, since they are mainly concerned with a single dimension, namely "modernity." Most typically, the changes with time are ignored so that dynamic social reactions induced by telecommunication technologies are left unestimated. Furthermore, little effort has been made to construct a quantification scheme in which competing interests of various social groups can be determined and balanced to find optimal policy decisions. In the absence of anlytically-oriented policy tools, the expected impacts of policy alternatives remain purely conjectural, subject only to intuitive judgment. Although sophisticated methods of operations research, decision theory, system analysis are used widely in other disciplines, communication scholars rarely adopt advanced techniques in exploring policy-making processes. One analytical approach to development of telecommunication policy studies can be found in a new scheme called the ”Socio-Technical Assessment Model.” This Model, which has been developed over the past decade by the Group for the Analysis and Assessment of Technology at Michigan State University, attempts to provide a systematic procedure to aid the formulation of policies concerned with technological matters. In this Model, the criterion for measuring the desirability of a given technological choice is identified as the potential contribution of the technological choice to enhancing the overall quality of life of the society. Systematic identification of human goals serves as the basis of analysis. Some aspects of the Model would require refinement as will be guided by empirical results. Nevertheless, the application of the Model promises to bring valuable insights in development of telecommunication policy studies. Purpose of the Study The present study is an application of a methodological scheme "Socio-Technical Assessment Model" to telecommunication policy planningin the developing countries. A rural village in South Korea is selected as representative of rural areas in the developing countries. The objectives of the study are three-fold: (1) By exploring potentialities of various telecommunication technologies for enhancing the quality of life of the rural populace, the study aims to aid the policy-makers of the developing countries in allocating public resources into the telecommunication sector; (2) By introducing a quantification scheme in which reactions among the key decision variables are detenmined and balanced to find optimal policy alternatives, the study aims at expanding the traditional boundary of telecommunication policy studies; (3) By applying the Model to a real-world setting, the study hopes to test the validity and usefulness of the Model. Establishment of rational telecommunication policies seems to be one of the most crucial areas of concern for the developing countries. A well-planned telecommunication infrastructure can make a substantial contribution to achieving development goals by substituting some forms of travel and by stimulating information-generating and -processing activities among the rural populations. Yet, at the same time, tele- communication technologies can be a powerful force in destroying indigenous culture and regimenting the masses. To find optimal policy decisions, the threats as well as the promises of telecommunication should be estimated, weighed, and planned for. The ultimate purpose of the present study is precisely to meet that end--to suggest a new perspective in planning public-resource allocation in the capital- scarce developing countries by indicating the possible effects of specific telecommunication technologies. Assumptions and Research Questions A detailed explanation of the theoretical and methodological assumptions of the Socio-Technical Assessment Model will be given later. Some important assumptions of the Model are: (1) The quality of life in a given society is determined by the extent to which a set of basic human needs are provided for; (2) The extent to which a set of basic human needs are provided for is to be measured by the degree of fulfillment of human goals; (3) Potential impacts of any technological undertaking are quantifiable in terms of their contribution to the overall quality of life in a given society; and (4) A realistic impact assessment of any technological under- taking is to incorporate values held by potential benefi- ciaries, the decision-makers of a given society, and by the experts in the relevant field. The research questions to be examined in the present study are divided into two groups: those required in testing the validity of the Socio-Technical Assessment Model, and those required in the opera— tion procedure of the Socio-Technical Assessment Model. Testing Validity of the Model The validity of the Socio-Technical Assessment Model will be tested by focusing on two areas: the quality—of—life scheme proposed in the Model, and the relationship between telecommunication technologies and the quality of life of the village populations. The quality-of-life scheme, as applied to the present study, comprises the 16 basic needs and the four human goals. The basic needs include: Nourishment, Shelter, Clothing, Health, Physical Security, Unpolluted Air-Water—Soil, Pleasant Living Conditions, Public Safety, Opportunity for Education, Opportunity for Profession, Political Freedom, Entertainment and Culture, Judicial Justice, Social Justice, Economic Justice, and Communal Solidarity. The human goals include: "Individual-Material Goal," "Group-Material Goal," "Individual- Spiritual Goal," and "Group-Spiritual Goal." The research questions to be addressed in testing the validity of the quality-of—life scheme of the Model are: Question 1: Do the 16 basic human needs and the overall satis- faction level constitute reliable and valid criteria in determining the current quality of life of the village populations? Question 2: Do the basic human needs present clearly distinguish- able patterns that can be identified as "Individual- Material," ”Group-Material,” "Individual-Spiritual," and "Group-Spiritual" goals? Question 3: Is the overall satisfaction level of the village population ascertainable in terms of the degrees of fulfillment of "Individual-Material," "Group-Material," "Individual-Spiritual," and "Group-Spiritual" goals? In examining the relationship between the quality of life of the village populations and telecommunication technologies, a total of ten telecommunication modes will be considered. They are: Postal Service, Telegraph, Telephone, Audio-Cassette, Loudspeaker, Theatrical Film, Radio, Television, Newspaper, and Magazine. The research questions to be addressed in assessing the effects of the telecommunication modes are: Question 4: Does access to the telecommunication modes have significant effects on the overall satisfaction of the village populations? QuestiOn 5: Does frequency of uSage for the telecommunication modes have significant effects on the overall satis- faction level of the village populations? Operation of the Model Since time and resources do not permit a full operation of the Model, the present study confines its scope of analysis to those basic human needs that are generally believed to be the most urgent ones in the developing countries. Specifically, the basic human needs to be investigated in this study are: Nourishment, Shelter, Clothing, and Health. The operation procedure of the Socio-Technical Assessment Model consists of four phases. The research questions to be examined are: Phase I: What is the degree of association of the basic human needs under investigation with each of the ”Individual- Material Goal," "Group-Material Goal,” "Individual— Spiritual Goal,” and "Group-Spiritual Goal?” Phase II: How much can the basic human needs under investigation contribute to enhancing the overall quality of life of the village population? Phase III: How effective are the telecommunication modes in facilitating the provision for the basic human needs under investigation? Phase IV: What are the net contributing rates of the telecom— munication modes to enhancing the overall quality of life of the village population, from the provision for the basic human needs under investigation? The final outcomes of the Model operation which will designate the desirability of each telecommunication mode under consideration in the village society will serve as effective guidelines in planning allocation of public resources. Definition of Terms In the present study, the developing countries are loosely defined as the nation-states in which provision of the basic human needs-—materia1 aswell as spiritual is severely limited. A more precise description can be found in chapter 2 of McHale and McHale (1978). Telecommunication is defined as transmission of information across distances beyond the range of sensory stimuli.* Information is defined as a selection from a set of possible messages (Shannon, 1963, p. 3). Technology is here defined as the set of implements and practices by means of which a society copes with its material environment. Pulbic policy is defined as the set of measures undertaken or forgone by means of whcih a polity attempts to meet the needs and wishes of its collective membership. Structure of the Study Chapter 1 presents the problem statement, the purpose of the study, and the research questions to be explored in the present study. Chapter 2 contains a review of literature relevant to the present study. Chapter 3 gives the theoretical and mathematical assumptions of the Socio-Technical Assessment Model, as well as the Operationaliza- tion of the Model. Detailed accounts on the data-collection process are given in Chapter 4. The results obtained from testing the validity of the Model are presented in Chapter 5. Chapter 6 describes the pro- cedure involved in the operation of the Model. The policy implications of the findings obtained from the application of the Socio-Technical Assessment Model, and suggestions for future research, are addressed in Chapter 7. * Footnote: Ordinarily, telecommunication is restricted to a very short transmission of time and, therefore, implies electro- magnetic signaling. Overview The present study applies a new policy analysis tool called Socio- Technical Assessment Model to explore the potentialities of telecom- munication technologies for enhancing the quality of life of the village populations in South Korea. By illustrating the roles that telecommunication technologies are likely to play, the study hopes to shed new insights in telecommunication policy research. The complex process involved in adoption of technologies will be systematically treated in an attempt to produce numerical properties that specify the desirability of specific technologies. The Model attempts to combine the analytic frameworks emphasized in engineering, with the critical perspectives on societal actions as found in the social sciences. The study hopes to contribute not only to telecommunica— tion policy studies, but also to other disciplines that show growing concern in the technology—society relationship. CHAPTER II LITERATURE REVIEW A review of the literature is divided into the four major categories: theory of development; quality-of-life indexes; tele- communication and development; and technology assessment. The first section examines the shift of emphasis in the theory of development in the disciplines of economics, socio-psychology, and political science. The second section introduces attempts to establish quality- of-life indexes in terms of satisfaction of basic human needs. The implications of telecommunication for the development process are discussed in the third section. The fourth section explores the historical development as well as the state-of—art of the technology- assessment movement. The notion of appropriate technology is incor- porated. This chapter concludes with an overview that addresses the applicability of technology-assessment schemes to telecommunication planning for the developing countries. Theory of Development When a number of excolonial states entered international politics after World War II, the concept of ”development" gained instant popu- larity. The prevailing attitude was that development can be easily achieved by rational planning and external assistance. Although the concept had been interpreted in slight different fashion in each discipline, there was a general belief that "development—modernization 10 11 is a continuing process involving a series of developmental stages that all nations must undergo in a similar manner. Typical attributes of a modern society were known to be high industrialization, high role dif- ferentiation, and high social mobility. The "backward societies" were characterized by an agricultural-based economy, low role differentiation, and perseverance of traditional values. Since the late 1960's, when the failure of massive development efforts came into focus, the old development model has been sharply challenged. The shift of paradigm in the theory of development will be examined in three major disciplines: economics, socio-psychology, and political science. Economics Perhaps the most widely-known theoretical generalization of the development process is the stage economic-development theory of Rostow (1960). He hypothesized that economic growth proceeds in five distinguishable stages: traditional society, preconditions for take- off, the take-off, drive to maturity, and mass consumption. Assuming that economic evolution in the United States would be an appropriate model for the developing countries, Rostow emphasized the significance of a "take—off” that leads to high consumer-goods production--the prime indicator of a developed society. Equally important as a development economic theory is the technical-innovation theory of Prebisch (1964). He proposed a sophisticated industrial model that possesses a high consumer orientation. The implication of Prebisch‘s model is that the capital—intensive model that had worked well for Western Europe would be equally effective for the developing 12 countries. The economic theories that emphasize external assistance, technical innovation, and rapid industrialization had widely been accepted in both academia and international organizations. At the other extreme, some economists pointed out the weaknesses of development model based on Western economic rationality. Warning of a danger of generalizing experience in development, Ward (1965) contended that the economies of developing countries cannot expand according to the classical model of a competitive market. Frank (1966) argued that underdeveloped conditions in the developing countries are the consequences of interference on the part of the industrialized nations. An increasing control of multinational corporations was articulated by Barnet and Muller (1974). Collectively known as the ”dependency" theorists, these economists insist that persistent poverty in the developing countries cannot be resolved unless funda- mental changes in international political—economic relations occur. By the late 1960's, there was a growing awareness that the living conditions of the poor had not improved despite the efforts to "take- off” and ”industrialize." The theories of neither Rostow nor Prebisch could be sustained by the evidence. Furthermore, consumer-oriented development planning has been blamed for creating high demands for consumption before it yielded the motivation for production. In the midst of the movement toward the "New International Economic Order” in which the developing countries demand a fairer share of international trade, a need to establish a new perspective on development was acutely felt (Harlan Cleveland, quoted in McHale & McHale, 1978, p. 5—6). Increasing numbers of economists came to acknowledge that economic development may not be possible without political stability and other 13 institutional support. The qualitative aspects of human life were brought into focus. An important work along this line of thinking is that of Ademan and Morris (1973). Introducing a concept of "equity“ in the development concept, they found complex interaction effects among social, political, economic, and cultural variables. They also pointed out that the beneficiaries of economic development tend to be the economically well-off sectors, particularly in the lowest-income countries. Stressing the significance of a holistic approach rather than piece meal planning, Myrdal (1970, p. 21) claimed that "what a nation-state needs...is precisely a macro-plan for inducing changes simultaneously in a great number of conditions, not only in economics." Haq (1976, pp. 27-47) summarized the key elements of new perspective on development as follows: --A direct attack on mass poverty, rather than fostering increases in the Gross National Product; --Pursuit of the satisfaction of basic human needs rather than satisfaction of market demands; and —-A radical change in the direction of investment toward the poorest sectors of a society. Although no existing economic model provides a complete answer for the complex development processes, a large number of economists acknowledge that development should be aimed at enhancing the quality of life, not merely increasing the Gross National Product (GNP) level. Socio-Psychology Most of the socio-psychologists examining the development process assumed that social change requires the adoption of new normative standards. The pioneering work in explaining the development process on the basis of attitudinal variables was conducted by Lerner (1958). 14 The key concept in his modernization theory is ”empathy," which can be defined as "psychic mobility" or ”the ability to project oneself into the role of another." He hypothesized that personality structures in traditional society are held inert and confined, hence the transition from a "traditional-being" to a "modern-being" can be achieved only by giving an individual "a high capacity for identification with new' aspects of his environment." Lerner saw that exposure to the mass media can stimulate higher literacy, which in turn will lead to urban growth and political participation. A similar argument was advanced by Schramm, whose much-acclaimed book "Mass Media and National Development” (1964) laid the cornerstone in the development communication researches. Other scholars who postulate positive effects of mass media in modern- ization are Inkeles and Smith (1966, 1974), Rogers (1963), Pool (1963), Pye (1963) and Kahl (1968). Just as in the economics theory, the new socio-psychological perspectives toward the development processes arrived in the 1970's. Forcefully denying the assumption that the mass media stimulate development activity, Schiller (1975-1976) claimed that exposure to them has created a phenomenon of admiring materially-abundant Western societies and denigrating traditional values and norms. Golding (1974, 1977) argued that entertainment-dominated mass-media fare tends to divert political dissidence while perpetuating cultural dependency of the ex—colonial states on the industrialized nations. Singh (1977) suggested that the mass media in poor countries serve mainly the entertainment and economic needs of the urban elite class; hence the rural populations are the least likely beneficiaries of the mass-media systems. Katz and Wedell (1977) attributed the failure of the mass 15 media, particularly the broadcasting media, in the poor countries to the lack of comprehensive communication policies relevant within socio- cultural context of each country. The objectives of development viewed from a new socio-psycho- logical perspective are succinctly addressed by Inayatullah and by Goulet. Challenging the Western concept of development, Inayatullah (1976) defined the goal of development as: control over nature, realization of national destiny, and expansion of individual oppor- tunities. To him, no goal has absolute priority, and the ultimate goal of development is to maintain balance among the three major goals. Goulet claimed that development planning that destroys traditional values in the developing societies would have far-reaching negative impacts. The aim of development is, in Goulet's terms, to achieve "survival" as a minimal goal while striving for higher goals such as "satisfaction of self-esteem" and "fulfillment of freedom." Political Science In earlier days, many political scientists manifested their deep- rooted prejudice in rationalizing the process of transforming the "backward" societies into "democratic" ones. Almond (1960, p. 64) contended that "the model of political modernization can only be derived from analysis of modern Western societies." Bendix (1970, p.3) defined modernization as "the type of social change since the 18th century consisting in the economic and political advances of some pioneering societies and subsequent changes in follower societies” (emphasis supplied). Riggs (1960, p. 61) also saw modernization as "the process of emulating the characteristics of another superior culture" (emphasis supplied). l6 Transplantation of Western-style democracies into the developing countries, unfortunately, was largely unsuccessful. The Tanzanian President Julius Nyere (1972) argued that the classical form of Western democracy is not adequate for the radically different socio— political conditions prevailing in the developing countries. Advo- cating "African socialism," Nyere believed that the one-party system is a "truer expression” of democracy for the developing countries than is the multi-party competitive system. Kautsky (1972) criticized the conventional notion of determining the level of democracy based on voting measures. Noting the increasing conflicts between the newly- emerged ruling classes and the peasant group, Kautsky cautioned that peasants may vote, not because they want to, but because they are afraid to show objection to the ruling classes. In sum, in various theoretical disciplines, the primary objective of development is viewed as the meeting of diverse basic human needs. A summary of the new perspective can be found in so-called ”Cocoyac Declaration, a document prepared by development specialists in the United Nations (1974). It stated that: "Our first concern is to redefine the whole purpose of development. This should not be to develop things but to develop man. Human beings have basic needs: food, shelter, clothing, health, education. Any process of growth that disrupts them is a travesty of the idea of development...Development should not be limited to satisfaction of the basic needs. It includes freedom of expression and impres— sion, the right to give and to receive ideas and stimulus. There is a deep social need to participate in shaping the basis of one's own existence, and to make some contribution to the fashioning of the world's future...” (p.91). 17 Quality-of-Life Indexes Corresponding to the new development perspective in which satis- faction of basic human needs is the focal point, the concept of quality of life became a widely pursued area of research. Although the concept of quality of life did not receive high visibility until the mid 1970's, some basic criteria for evaluating the standard of living had been set forth in the early 1950's. In a report entitled "International Definition of Standards and Levels of Living," the United Nations adopted 12 criteria in characterizing the quality of life: Health, Food and Nutrition, Education, Condition of Work, Employment Situation, Aggregate Consumptions and Savings, Transporta— tion, Housing, Clothing, Recreation and Entertainment, Social Security, and Human Freedom (UN, 1954). For the past decade, the United Nations has produced a series of reports on socio-economic indicators, most of which are not radically different from those in its 1954 report. Typically, the dimensions included in the socio-economic indicators are: population, health and nutrition, housing and environment, education and culture, employment, social welfare and security, and income and consumption of wealth (Rao, 1975). The Organizationand Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) published a similar report on measurement of the level of well- being (OECD, 1973; Christian, 1974). The principal criteria adopted by the OECD are: health, individual development through learning, employment and quality of working life, command over goods and services, physical environment, personal safety, and social opportunity and participation. 18 In addition to material aspects of human life, attempts were made to incorporate the individual-psychological feelings in the quality-of- life concept. Proponents of individual-psychological approach include Dalkey (1972), Mitchell et a1. (1971), and Campbell and Converse (1972). Dalkey (1972, p. 58) defined the quality of life as "a person's well- being, his satisfaction or dissatisfaction with life, or his happiness or unhappiness." Mitchell et al. (1971) identified a quality-of-life criterion based on needs, values, and beliefs of individuals. Campbell and Converse (1972) argued that the quality-of-life is largely deter- mined by the quality of personal experience. According to their scheme, the highest state of the quality of life is characterized by the "full life"--a state in which individuals are gratified in all their basic needs, satisfying the demands for love and sense of security, feeling of worth and self-respect. One of the most important works in quality-of-life research incorporating the notion of the basic human needs was advanced by McHale and McHale (1978). Their basic human needs scheme has four interrelated dimensions: biophysical and psychological needs in one direction; internal metabolic processes and external metabolic processes along the other. The biophysical needs include food, water, shelter, health, heating (and cooling), light, and clothing. The psychological needs consist of communication, education, transporta- tion, security of various kinds, recreation, and social mobility. Adopting Maslow's notion of hierarchy of human needs (1968), McHale and McHale classified the human needs into three categories: the first-floor deficiency needs that must be met to maintain survival; the second-floor sufficiency needs that are required to maintain living standards at some desirable level; and the third-floor growth needs that allow individual development above material sufficiency. The contribution of McHale and McHale to identification of the basic human needs is a noteworthy advance over earlier attempts, yet their scheme suffers from two serious flaws: the categorization of the basic human needs is too loose and overlapping to be operationally useful; and the postulation of an absolute hierarchy in the basic human needs is highly questionable. The efforts to establish quality-of-life indexes parallel the new perspective on development. Review of the existing literature suggests, however, that most of the indexes lack sufficient validity and reli- ability to provide a realistic scheme for the policy—makers. Ayres (1972) proposed classification criteria for quality-of-life indexes. The four principal criteria that he suggested are: -—The classification should be unambiguous (i.e., have no overlap of categories); -—All possible cases should be covered (i.e., there should be no gaps ; —-The number of classes should be small enough to manipulate but large enough to permit adequate detail; and --Any entity should be homogeneous within a class but should be differentiated from entities in other categories. In conclusion, it appears that if the quality-of-life indexes are to constitute useful guidelines for planning public resource allocation, they should meet at least the criteria of the type set forth by Ayres. Telecommunication and Development As reviewed earlier, a multiplicity of studies that explore the role of information in the development process have focused on the 20 effects of the mass media. The implications of point-to-point tele- communication services, such as telephone, telegraph, and postal service, have largely been neglected in the development—communication research until quite recently. The studies which advocate the role of telecommunication, particularly that of point-to-point telecom- munication, can be largely grouped into two categories: economic analysis focused on correlation measures between telecommunication penetration ratio and the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) or the GNP (Saunders & Warford, 1979; Shapiro, 1976); and socio-benefit analysis that examines the efficiencies of telecommunication in delivering health and educational services (Hudson and Parker, 1975; Goldschmidt, 1978). The recent work of Pool et a1. (1981), which was based on sample surveys on Egyptian villages, presents the potential benefits of tele- phone systems as a substitute for travel. Unfortunately, the afore- mentioned studies do ngt_provide an analytic frame within which a society's overall demands for various kinds of information can be estimated. With regard to estimating information needs in society, two recent studies merit some attention. Clippinger (1980) suggests four different methods of estimating information needs: comprehensive- needs assessment and country profile, sectoral-needs assessment, program—needs assessment, and project-needs assessment. Although Clippinger's work offers a plausible scheme to measure the information needs, it may lack practicality, especially when telecommunication technologies are viewed as tools to satisfy the basic human needs. Vinogradov et a1. (1981) provide a much more operationally-oriented scheme. They classify information needs in three major categories: 21 individual needs, societal needs, and economic needs. The individual information needs are often selective and subjective, dependent as they are on the economic and social interests of a society. Collective information needs do not exist independently of the individual needs, yet they can be defined in terms of social and economic goals of a society. Economic-information needs pertain to economic productivity, scientific advancement, and international information exchange. At each level, information needs are influenced by both material and spiritual factors, with material elements dominating. The work of Vinogradov et a1. can serve as basis of analyzing information needs of any given society regardless of its development level. Those who claim that telecommunication will induce socio—economic development generally agree that there is an urgent need to establish a new conceptual and methodological model. Wellenius (1972) claims that estimating the demands for telecommunication cannot be left solely to consideration of the forces of the market. Rather, he sees that the single most important measure in allocating public resources into the telecommunication sector is the foreseeable impacts of technological elements upon the people in a given society. Chasia (1976) contends that desirable telecommunication technologies appropriate for rural development must have certain attributes such as cost effectiveness, low power consumption, low maintenance requirement, high reliability, and high flexibility. Hudson (1982) states that telecommunication infrastructure may be as important as any other infrastructure in reducing the urban-rural and rich—poor dichotomies that prevail in the developing countries. She fails, however, to present a concrete frame for estimating the information needs of the rural populations. 22 Despite the continuous efforts of these researchers, we have not witnessed practical guidelines on which developing countries can rely when they want to expand their telecommunication sectors. The problem of differentiating "telecommunication” from "mass media" is still wide- spread, so that an integrative approach that encompasses all telecom- munication technologies has not been established. In the absence of a systematic framework, the criteria for evaluating technological alternatives at a given resource level remain ambiguous. If telecom- munication is to perform as an active element in accelerating develop— ment process, it seems imperative to adopt a macroscopic view in which demands for telecommunication technologies can be assessed in the relevant socio-economic—political context of a given society. The choice of a particular telecommunication technology will affect not only quantitative dimensions of information flow, but also the quality and the nature of that flow. The most important question in determining the demands for telecommunication technologies will then be how much the members of a given society can benefit from adopting particular technologies. The following section examines attempts to establish criteria for evaluating the desirability of a given technological choice in society. Technology Assessment Technology has long been believed to offer an assured way to the better life. Massive utilization of technology has brought unpre- cedented material abundance to the Western industrialized nations. Yet, technology has also produced a number of undesirable consequences. In the early 1960's when the erosive effects of technology on human 23 life were increasingly noted, the United States Congress initiated a series of studies of critical policy issues concerning science and technology. The opening of the report prepared by the National Academy of Sciences (1969) epitomizes the concern in technology applications. The report stated that: ”In recent years concern has mounted over society's seeming inability to channel technological developments in directions that sufficiently respect the broad range of human needs." The attempts to meet the challenge of better guidance of society with respect to technology applications have developed along the two major lines: one, Technology Assessment led by physical scientists and engineers; two, Social Impact Assessment led by social scientists. In both cases, the aim is to assess the likely consequences of proposed technological undertakings on society. Since Social Impact Assessment is peripheral to the present study, interested readers are merely referred to accounts by Finsterbush & Wolf (1977), Dickens & Hill (1978), Daneke & Priscoli (1979), Finsterbush (1980), and Leistritz & Murdock (1981). Technology assessment attempts to maintain a balanced view between the two extreme viewpoints on technology: a utopian one that views technology as a panacea for liberating man from poverty and despair (Mesthenes, 1969); and an apocalyptic one that perceives technology as a force inherently destructive to maintaining a sound social and physical environment (Nader, 1972; Reich, 1971; Meadows et a1., 1972). V. Coates (1972, ix) defines technology assessment as "the systematic identification, analysis and evaluation of the full range of social impacts, both beneficial and detrimental, which may result from the 24 introduction of a new technology, or [from] changes in the application and utilization of existing technology." Susskind (1973, p. 127) advanced a simpler definition: ”technology assessment is the evalua- tion of adverse as well as beneficial effects of technological innova- tion.” Acknowledging harmful as well as beneficial effects of technology, technology assessment hopes to provide the decision makers with a working tool with which technological development can be stimulated, directed, and if necessary restrained. Implicit in the approach is that planning of specific technological choice is relevant to the general welfare. Efforts to arouse concern in legislative circles of the U.S. Congress over relentless use of technology resulted in the passage of the Technology Assessment Act (1972). The Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) was formally established as a Congressional service responsible to Congress for identifying probable impacts of techno- logical applications. Since its inception, OTA has sponsored a number of projects of presumed high significance in public-policy formulation and modification. In the meantime, a great number of studies that sporadically apply sophisticated techniques such as operational research, systems analysis, or decision theory, have been published (Cetron & Bartocha, 1973; Duckstein et a1., 1977; Philips & DeFilippi, 1976; Rubinstein & Horn, 1978). Yet the current state-of-art of technology assessment does not seem to differ drastically from that of the early 1970's: the conceptual and methodological problems embedded in technology assessment remain largely unsolved. Unfinished tasks of technology assessment can be grouped into two areas. First, there is a lack of a mechanism by which the desirability 25 of a given technological choice can be assessed. Despite enthusiastic claims about measuring "the net benefit of society as a whole," the criteria for evaluating ”goodness" of a given technological choice tend to be predominantly technical rather than social (Skolimowski, 1976). Bell (1981, p. 264) states that "the source of our predicament [in technological development] is not the imperatives of technology, but a lack of mechanism for choosing the kinds of technology and social sup— port patterns we want." Kash (1982, p. 9) summarized the massive failings of technology—assessment movement as "(technology) impact research has done a good bit to identify the inadequacy of intellectual frameworks while not offering any significant conceptual and intellec- tual alternative.” Secondly, conventional technology assessment has not been success- ful in linking itself to technology forecasting. Huddle (1972) emphasized that technology assessment cannot be complete unless it suggests where emerging technological developments or long-range technological trends might lead. Traditionally, technology fore- casting is divided into two categories: mission-oriented (or normative) forecasting,and opportunity-oriented (or exploratory) forecasting (Jantsch, 1966). Normative forecasting employs demand- pull methods to assess what technological innovations are required to achieve a specific mission. It starts with a normative statement of what ought to be, and guides technological development in the direction of achieving the predetermined norms. Exploratory fore- casting, on the other hand, attempts to find applications for techno- logical devices by changing previously-held norms and values. Exploratory forecasters view technology as subject to an internal law 26 of development. The current state—of-art of technology assessment is far from absorbing either normative forecasting or exploratory fore- casting. The potentialities of assessment schemes for aiding the public- policy making may indeed be abundant. As the effects of technology become more pervasive and far—reaching, a practical and realistic assessment scheme can make a significant contribution to guiding the advancement of human civilization. The need for an effective assess- ment scheme may be more crucial for the developing countries than for the industrialized nations. The materially well-off industrialized countries may be able to afford an occasional blunder in trying out a new technology. The developing countries, which suffer from capital- scarcity and population explosion, must rely on technological forces to solve the wide-spread starvation and disease. With a well-grounded assessment scheme, the developing countries may find optimum solutions in resource—allocation plans without destroying their own traditional value systems. Appropriate Technology and Technology Assessment The notion of appropriate technology is in a sense similar to that of technology assessment, in that pursuit of technological development has to coincide with the specific goals and technological- economic capacities of a given society. Proponents of appropriate technology (e.g., Schumacher, 1975) argue that capital—intensive advanced technologies developed in the industrialized nations are not only inadequate for the prevailing situations in the developing countries, but they are likely to intensify the technological dependence of the 27 developing countries on the industrialized ones. According to the appropriate technologists, technologies suitable for the developing countries should be labor-intensive, inexpensive, unsophisticated, small-scale, and locally available. Yet, pursuing only small-scale inexpensive technologies without considering the long-term effects can be as dangerous as adopting advanced technology in full scale. Depend- ing upon a society's resource level and the specific tasks that tech- nology is to perform, advanced technologies can sometimes be more cost-beneficial. Without rational guidelines for exploiting techno- logical forces, the developing countries might have to prolong their technological dependence upon the technologically advanced countries. What, then, constitute the criteria for evaluating ”appropriateness" of their technological choices? Noting the difficulty of finding desir- able technological strategies for the developing countries, Eckhaus (1977, p. 20) noted that "it is extremely difficult to obtain those quantitative measurements of the characteristics [of technologY] that are necessary to determine the economic and social implications of specific methods." The present study attempts, in part, to answer Eckhaus' question. Overview The review of the literature included in this chapter suggests that the basic-human-needs approach constitutes a legitimate and sound basis for studying development processes. The problem relating to telecommunication policy planning stems mainly from a lack of a proper frame for evaluating the information needs of a society in parallel with the capacities of information technologies. Efforts to 28 assess the past and foreseeable impacts of technological actions have led to the technology-assessment movement. Yet technology assessment has not received wide acceptance because of the lack of a mechanism to measure the social benefits of a given technological choice. The notion of appropriate technology appeals to the moral responsibility of researchers, but its main thrust is too simplistic to provide rational guidelines for the public-policy makers. Hope for establishing a sensible and workable assessment scheme can perhaps be found in a political philosophy that treats techno— logical development as a part of progress in meeting the human goals. Telecommunication policy planning for the developing countries can benefit substantially from an assessment scheme in which the increment of the quality of life functions as the key decision variable. With a well-founded assessment model, the optimal allocation of public re- sources in a given society can be estimated satisfactorily. Partly supported by the researches cited above, and partly out of the belief that the notion of technology assessment can be appli- cable to the developing countries, the present study applies the Socio-Technical Assessment Model in investigating telecommunication policy planning for the developing countries. Chapter 3 describes the theoretical as well as mathematical assumptions of the Model, and the Operationalization of the Model as applied in the present study. CHAPTER III THE SOCIO-TECHNICAL ASSESSMENT MODEL This chapter presents a general description and the Operationali- zation of the Socio-Technical Assessment Model. The first part of this chapter explains the philosophical background and some important work- ing assumptions of the Model. The second part of this chapter gives a detailed account of the Operationalization of the Model. General Description of the Model As reviewed in Chapter II, since the late 1960's numerous reports have been published under the rubric of technology assessment and social—impact assessment. Despite the initial promises, neither of those activities seemstohave had major impact in formulating practical guidelines to aid the decision-making. The evaluation criteria pro- posed by technology assessors tend to be predominatly technical. The social—impact analysts have made conjectures about quality-of—life indexes, yet there seems to be little regard for just how adequately those indexes are addressed. Often they are too ambiguous and over- lapping to ensure reliability and validity in Operationalization. The reasons for the growing skepticism converge on one factor: there is a nearly complete lack of attention to the significance of formulating a criterion that will tell in what sense a given strategy for technology application is better than, as good as, or worse than another one. The most important feature of the Socio-Technical Assessment Model employed in the present study is that it offers a realistic 29 3O criterion for assessing social impacts of technology (Montgomery, 1980). The criterion of the Model is formally stated as: Maximize a well- being index that incorporates the totality of human goals. Based on the idea that the validity of an impact-assessment scheme rests on successful identification of the full range of human goals, the well- being index of the Model encompasses aspects of human needs that may be overlooked, yet are significant in defining a "good life.” Under the condition that the human goals should be few enough to allow practical application, and numerous enough to admit a realistic account of human behavior, the Model proposes a two-by-two human—goal—c1assification scheme. The scheme of human goals illustrated in Figure 1 comprises "Individual" and "Group” goals in one dimension, and I'Material” and ”Spiritual" goals in the other. The division of human goals into "Individual" and “Group” categories reflects the evolutionary require- ment that man be selfish enough to ensure his own survival until at least reproductive age, but altruistic enough to ensure the survival of the human species. The division of "Material" and "Spiritual” goals reflects the psychological-cultural requirements that man lives by bread, but not by bread alone. Here, the P, E, F, J serve as respective cognates for each of the four human goals: P_for the Provision of material goods for individual survival to meet the Individual-Material needs; E_for the preservation and protection of the quality of material Ehvironment to meet the Group-Material needs; F for the freedom and self—fulfillment opportunities to meet the Individual-Spiritual needs; and J_for the Justice in retributive and distributive process, in order to meet the Group-Spiritual needs. 31 Figure l Categorization of Human Goals Individual (Personal) Group (Societal). Recreation and Entertainment, etc. E .5. ,_:: Provision for Physiological Presence of Healthful Physical .2 8 Needs and Desires: Environment: 3'; Nourishment, Shelter, Clean Air, Clean Water, -g_g, Clothing, Health Services, Uncontaminated Soil, Low Noise ERE; Reproduction and Sex, and Vibration, Safety against Physical Security, etc. Burglary and Fire, Safe Level of Radiation, etc. I. 9. '3 ,s Opportunity for Spiritual Presence of a Sound Social .2.:; and Aesthetic Fulfillment: Environment: S’ji Opportunity for Education, Retributive Justice of Equal '5 ‘5 Occupation, Residence, Treatment under the Law, fi'g, Freedom of Expression, Distributive Justice for Equal EPEC. Political Liberty, Sharing of Wealth, Promotion of Social Solidarity, etc. 32 The entries in each category are representative of the human needs which are especially strong in satisfying the particular goal, but which also make some contribution in satisfying other goals. The Operationalizing guideline for the criterion of the Model is set forth in a generalized utilitarian principle of "choose an action which promiSes the greatest good to the greatest nUmber of people, under'the constraintsof limited resoUrces and disparate interests." A full explanation of the MOdel is beyond the scope of the present study. Hence, discussion of the Model will be confined to the definition and the working assumptions of the constructs relevant to the present study. 1) The Good. The good, that is, the quality of life of a given society, is characterized by the degree of fulfillment of the P, E, F, J human goals. The P, E, F, J goals are called canonical human goals. They form exhaustive and mutually exclusive variables that span a hyperdimensional space. The quantification process of the quality-of-life index is derived from the mathematical assumptions of the Model. The first assumption is that the canonical human goals P, E, F, J can be quantified not only individually, but also in terms of a common measure. The second assumption is that there exists at any time 3, an overall satisfaction index S which is a function of P, E, F and J. The degrees of fulfillment for each canonical human goalene represented as SP, SE, SF, SJ, which are labeled as the partial satisfaction indexes. In mathematical terms, the overall satisfaction index §_will be approximated as a linear superposition of weighted partial 33 satisfaction indexes SP’ SE, SF, SJ. The relationship between §_and SP, SE’ SF, SJ is represented as: §(P, E, F, J) = aP SP + GE SE + aFSF + aJSJ, in which the a's are weights of each canonical human goal relative to S. The Number of People. The ”people” in a given society have to be aggregated into a workable set of "societal sectors," within each of which the individuals share enough interests to be treated as identical in the relevant context. Like the number of canonical human goals, the number of societal sectors must be small enough to be manageable, large enough to afford a realistic description of the diversity of human roles. The classification of societal sectors again has to be exhaustive and mutually exclusive. Constraint of Resources. The "resources" are defined as the materials and attributes of the physical, institutional, and technological environment that are useful in achieving the human goals. The "constraint” of the resources reflecB the concept that at any given time t, the resources R_are fjpipg. In practice, the exploitation and utilization of the resources obey a supply-demand schedule. Disparate Interests. The "disparate interests” recognize that the differences in the value systems of the decision- makers will result in different views of the importance of the several human goals and of various societal sectors. The differences of the decision—makers' value systems arise from varied tastes, talents, personal experiences, and public roles. 34 With this background, the following section describes the Operationali- zation process of the Socio-Technical Assessment Model. Qperatidnalization of the Model A great deal of impact-assessment schemes borrow the frame of reference from operations research, systems analysis, decision analysis, and cost-benefit analysis, all of which adopt mathematical modeling to find optimum solutions. The steps commonly included in operations research are: formulation and definition of problem, construction of the model, solution of the model, validation of the model, and implementation of the results (Moscowitz & Wright, 1979, p.18). The Operationalization process of the Socio-Technical Assessment Model modifies the conventional methods of operations research. The framework of analysis of the Model consists of the five major steps: 1. Definition of Objectives 2. Delineation of the Scope of Assessment 3. Construction of the Model 4. Validation of the Model 5. Operation of the Model 1. Definition of Objectives The objective of the Socio-Technical Assessment Model is to estimate potential impacts of proposed technological undertakings upon the quality of life of the rural populace in a developing country in order to provide rational guidelines for allocating public resources into the proposed undertaklngs' 35 2. Delineation of the Scope of Assessment The scope of the Socio-Technical Assessment Model is composed of seven parts: representative sample site, potential beneficiaries, technology under asseSsment, general areas of application, direct areas of application, interested parties to be included in the decision- making, and time frame. A. Representative Sample Site: A rural village in South Korea is the choice' to represent the rural populace of the developing countries.' Potential Beneficiaries: The potential beneficiaries are the villagers of the sampled village. The village population is to be aggregated into the five societal seCtors (j=l,2,3,4,5): l. Professionals (governmental officials, school teachers, high-level managers, etc.) 2. Clerical Workers (low-ranking managers, clerks, etc.) 3. Commercial Sector (big- and small-scale shopkeepers) 4. Non-Agricultural Laborers (construction workers, factory workers) 5. Farmers Technology under Assessment: The technological undertakings to be assessed in the present study are telecommunication technologies of various telecommunication modes, a total of ten modes that are likely to be the major candidates are selected. These are (m=l,2,3,....lO): 1. Postal Service 6. Theatrical Film 2. Telegraph 7. Radio 3. Telephone 8. Television 4. Audio-Cassette 9. Newspaper 5. Loudspeaker 10. Magazine (Public Address Systems) 36 Each telecommunication mode will be evaluated in two dimen— sions: technical functions that they are to fulfill, and technical characteristics describing each mode. The technical functions* that are to be considered in the study consist of technical characteristics that will be examined in the study consist of (p=l,2,....6): 1. Specific Instruction 4. Entertainment . 2. Marketing Information 5. Opinion Formation 3. News, Weather Service 6 Personal Correspondence The technical characteristics consist of (q=l,2,....7): 1. Promptness 2. Effective Bit Rate 3. Cheapness 4. Reliability 5. Accessibility 6. Storage/Retrieval Capacity 7. Confidentiality D. General Areas of Application: The pr0posed telecommunication modes will be used to raise the overall quality of life of the villagers. The overall quality of life is measured by: §_(Overall Satisfaction Index). The overall quality of life is hypothesized to be determined by the extent to which a set of basic human needs are pro- vided for. The basic human needs to be considered are (v=l,2,3, ..... 16): l. Nourishment 2. Shelter 3. Clothing 4. Health 5. Physical Security 6. Unpolluted Air, Water, Soil 7. Pleasant Living Conditions (low noise level, freedom from fumes, pleasant scenery, etc.) 8. Public Safety (against fire, burglary, criminal acts) 9. Opportunity for Education 10. Opportunity for Profession *Footnote: technical function is here used in the sense of technical activites that are designed to serve various purposes of communication. 37 11. Political Freedom 12. Entertainment and Culture 13. Judicial Justice (equal treatment under law) 14. Social Justice (against ethnic, geographic, sexual prejudices) 15. Economic Justice (equitable distribution of wealth) 16. Communal Solidarity (preservation of social fabric, benevolence, hospitality) The degree of satisfaction for the basic human needs is hypothesized to be reflected in the fulfillment of the canonical human goals. The canonical human goals consist of (i=l,2,3,4): Individual-Material Goal (P) Group-Material Goal (E) Individual-Spiritual Goal (F) Group-Spiritual Goal (J) th-J Among the basic human needs, some needs are expected to be particularly important in fulfilling one of the canonical human goals: Individual Material Goal (P Goal, i=1) is expected to be most strongly affected by Nourishment (v=l), Shelter (v=2), Clothing (v=3), and Health (v=4); the Group- Material Goal (E Goal, i=2) by Physical Security (v=5), Unpolluted Air, Water, Soil (v=6), Pleasant Living Conditions (v=7), and Public Safety (v=8); the Individual-Spiritual Goal (F Goal, i=3) by Opportunity for Education (v=9), Opportunity for Profession (v=lO), Political Freedom (v=11), and Enter- tainment and Culture (v=12); the Group-Spiritual Goal (J Goal, i=4), by Judicial Justice (v=13), Social Justice (v=l4), Economic Justice (v=15), and Communal Solidarity (v=l6). Direct Areas of Application: In this study, the scope of analysis will be restricted to the four basic human needs that are generally believed to be the most urgent needs in the 38 developing countries. The basic human needs under investi- gation are: NouriShment (v=l), Shelter(y=2), Clothing (v=3), and Health(v=4), Since the Model postulates that each basic human need relates to each of P, E, F, J canonical human goals, each basic human need is resolved into the four components. The components of the four basic human needs under investigation are (h=l,2,3,4): Nourishment (v=1) 1 Production of enough foodstuffs (P component) 2 Protection against environmental contamination caused by food-production (E component) 3. Provision for a variety of food for individual tastes (F component) 4 Equitable distribution of foodstuffs (J component) Shelter (v=2) Construction of enough housing units (P component) Protection against degradation of environment caused by housing construction (E component) Provision for electricity, sewerage, heating and cooling systems (F component) Equitable distribution of housing units (J component) «boom—J Clothing (v=3) l. Manufacturin or purchasing enough clothing (P component) 2. Protection against pollution caused by manufacturing of clothes (E component) 3. Provision for a variety of clothing for individual preference (F component) 4. Equitable distribution of clothing (J component) Health (v=4) 1. Provision for enough basic health-care services (P component) 2. Protection against pollution caused by chemical discharges from hospitals and other sanitary measures (E component) 3. Provision for a variety of health-care measures (F component) 4. Equitable access to the health-care services (J component) 39 F. Interested Parties to Be Included in the Decision Making: The interest groups whose opinions are to be reflected in the decision making are grouped into two categories: experts and decision makers. ‘ Experts: A group of experts who have special knowledge about various aspects of Nourishment (v=1), Shelter (v=2), Clothing (v=3), and Health (v=4) of the sampled village. Decision Makers: A group of decision-makers who are directly responsible for the sampled village's budget-planning and other administration activities. G. Time Frame: The time frame of the Model application is set forth as the next five to ten years. 3. Construction of the Model The Socio-Technical Assessment Model has been constructed at two different levels: the conceptual level and the measurement level. The conceptual scheme of the Model is given in Figure 2. The concep- tual scheme of the Model reflects the time-evolving nature of social changes and technological progress. The conceptual scheme of the Model implies the need for time-series analyses after implementing the results obtained from the initial Model inputs and the Model solutions. The Initial Model Inputs consist of: definition of objectives to be satisfied; current quality of life of the people in a given society; evaluation on the technological options under assessment; and decision- makers' values and beliefs in public resource allocation during the pre-determined time—frame. The Initial Model Solutions are identified as: the probabilistic statement of increment of the quality of life in a given society during the pre-determined time-frame attributed to the specific technological options under assessment. 40 Figure 2 Conceptual Scheme of the Socio-Technical Assessment Model Definition of Objectives to Be Satisfied .1 Current Quality of Life of a Given Society 1 Evaluation of the Technological Options under Assessment I Decision-Makers' Values and Beliefs in Resource Allocation during the Predetermined Time- Frame _ I The Probabilistic Statement of Possible Increment of the Initial Quality of Life in a Given Model Society Attributed to Specific Solutions—4; Technological Option under Assessment during the Pre- determined Time-Frame VI Implementation of the Initial Impact Analysis Model Solutions (Time Period I) H ' .. Implementation of the Modified (Modification of Model Solutions (Time Period II) t the Model 41 The measurement scheme of the Model is illustrated in Figure 3. The measurement scheme of the Model was established to derive the Initial MOdel Solutions of the conceptual scheme. As shown in Figure 3, the measurement scheme of the Model is divided into the four phases, each of which requires different data bases and mathematical operations. The objective of Phase I is to determine how much the four basic human needs under investigation--Nourishment, Shelter, Clothing, and Health--relate to each of P, E, F, J canonical human goals in each of the five societal sectors. The degree of association of the four needs will be inferred from the satisfaction level for those needs among the villagers. The degree of association of each need will be tabulated in a 4 x 5 matrix form (Bij)‘ hence a total of four matrices will be produced for Nourishment(§}j), Shelter (Bij)’ Clothing (Bij) and Health (Bij) respectively. The objective of Phase II is to estimate the extent to which each of Nourishment, Shelter, Clothing, and Health can contribute to enhancing the overall quality of life of the villagers as a whole. At this stage, the prime interest rests on projection of the likely changes in the future. The projection of the likely changes in the future will be made by integrating the decision-makers' values and beliefs in plans for allocating public resources. The decision-makers' value systems will be measured in quantitative terms by identifying their weightings on each of P, E, F, J canonical goals, as well as on each of the five societal sectors. The decision-makers' weightings on the P, E, F, J canonical human goals will be represented in a l x 4 matrix form (Vi), and their weightings on the five societal sectors will be represented in a 5 x 1 matrix form (NJ). The potential contributing rate of the 42 Figure 3 Measurement Scheme of the Socio-Technical Assessment Model Phase I Extraction of the Degree of Association of the v-th Basic Human Need under Investigation to the Fulfill- ment of the i-th Canonical Human Goal for the j-th Societal Sector Phase II Estimation on the Potential Contributive Rate of the v-th Basic Human Need under Investigation in Increas— ing the Overall Quality of Life of all Societal Sectors during the Next Five to Ten Years Phase III Estimation on the Effectiveness of the m-th Telecom- munication Mode under Assessment in Furthering the Provision for the v-th Basic Human Need under Investigation Phase IV Derivation on the Net Contributing Rate of the m-th Telecommunication Mode under Assessment to Increasing the Overall Quality of Life of All Societal Sectors from the Provision for the v-th Basic Human Need under Investigation during the Next Five to Ten Years Model Solutions 43 v-th basic human need to increasing overall quality of life will be determined by the formula: v _ v A§. ' Xi ° Ejj ~ L% . (1x4) (4x5) (5x1) The outcomes of Phase II will consist of four scalars for each of Nourishment (ASI), Shelter (NS? ), Clothing (AS?), and Health (A§é)- The objective of Phase III is to estimate the effectiveness of the ten telecommunication modes in facilitating the provision for Nourishment, Shelter, Clothing, and Health. To estimate the effective- ness of the modes, a complicated mathematical operation will be re- quired. The major elements to be included in the mathematical opera- tion are: l) Significance—Component Matrix (Cg), which identifies the significance of the h-th component in furthering the provision for the v-th basic human need. The significance of the four components for each basic human need will be represented in a l x 4 matrix form for Nourishment (2;), Shelter (pg), Clothing (93), and Shelter (Efi)- Estimation of the Significance-Component Matrix will be derived from the satisfaction level of the four basic human needs under investigation. 2) Component/Function Demand Matrix (Ehp)’ which specifies the demand for the p-th technical function in promoting the h-th component of the v-th basic human need. The demands for the six technical functions with respect to the four components of each basic human need will be represented in a 4 x 6 matrix . 1 2 . 3 form for Nourishment (th)’ Shelter (th)’ Clothing (th), and 44 Health (D4 =hp) respectively. Estimation of the Component/ Function Matrix will rely on evaluation by a group of experts. 3) Function/Characteristic Demand Matrix (9:), which identifies the demand for the q-th technical characteristic in activating the p—th technical function. The demands for the seven technical characteristics with respect to the six technical functions will be represented in a 6 x 7 matrix form. Estimation of the Function/Characteristic Demand Matrix will be made by the telecommunication researchers. 4) Characteristic/Mode Sppply Matrix (Sq), which represents the q—th technical characteristic supplied by the m-th telecom- munication mode. The seven characteristics of the ten tele- communication modes will be represented in a 7 x 10 matrix form. Estimation of the Characteristic/Mode Supply Matrix will be made by the telecommunication researchers. To determine the effectiveness of the telecommunication modes, the four matrices will be combined with each other in a systematic pattern. The result of a set of mathematical operations will be in a scalar form (E;) that refers to the effectiveness of the m-th telecommunica- tion mode in facilitating the provision for the v-th basic human need. The outcome of Phase III will be forty scalars for each of the four basic human needs--Nourishment, Shelter, Clothing, and Health—-and for each of the ten telecommunication modes--Postal Service, Telegraph, Telephone, Audio-Cassette, Loudspeaker, Theatrical Film, Radio, Television, Newspaper and Magazine. 45 The objective of Phase IV is to derive the Initial Solutions of the Model that designate the expected rate of increment in the overall quality of life in the village, as attributed to the specific tele— communication modes. Here the properties obtained in Phase II and Phase III will be integrated through the formula: AS; = a§y. E; , in which Aé; refers to the net contributing rate of the m-th telecom- munication mode in incrementing the overall quality of life of all societal sectors from the provision of the v-th basic human need. The final outcome of the Model operation will consist of forty scalars for each of the four basic human needs under investigation, for each of the ten telecommunication modes under assessment. Details of the data-collection process based on the measurement scheme of the Socio-Technical Assessment Model are given in Chapter IV. 4. Validation of the Model The validation of the Socio-Technical Assessment will be focused on two major issues: first, whether the quality-of-life scheme proposed in the Model is reliable and valid as tested with empirical data; second, whether the telecommunication modes produce significant effect on the quality of life of the village population so as to constitute a meaning- ful technologiCal force worth investigating. Details of the validation processes will be given in Chapter V. 5. Opgration'of'the Model After the validity of the Socio-Technical Assessment Model is established, the four phases proposed in the measurement scheme of the Model will be executed. The final outcome of the Model solution will 46 designate the expected level of enhancement in the overall quality of life attributed by specific telecommunication mode in the sampled village. The operation of the Model will be dealt with in Chapter VI. Overview Chapter III presents an overall description and Operationaliza- tion of the Socio-TeChnical Assessment Model. The Model avoids a common failing of technology-assessment and social-impact-assessment schemes by offering a specific criterion according to which desirability of a given technological choice can be estimated. In the Model, the desirability of a given technological choice is defined in terms of the potential contribution of specific technological choice to increasing the overall quality of life in a given society. The application of the Model will address the degree to which the rural populace within the developing countries can benefit from specific telecommunication technologies. CHAPTER IV COLLECTION OF DATA With the framework specified in the Operationalization of the Model, the field study was conducted in a rural village in South Korea during May and June of 1982. To provide a general picture of the sampled village, a brief description of the overall socio-economic conditions of the village and its telecommunication environment will be given. The major portion of the rest of this chapter is a detailed explanation of the data-collection process and the basic characteristics of data. Socio-Economic Conditions of the Village The sampled village, named Wa-Bu, is located about 20 miles north- east of Seoul, the capital of South Korea (See Figure 4 in Appendix A). As a part of the Nam-Yang District, Wa-Bu consists of 13 smaller administrative units (See Figure 5 in Appendix A). Wa—Bu has an area of approximately 24 square miles (62 sq. km.), about ten percent of which is rice paddies, the rest serving for live- stock breeding, industrial factories, and residential areas. The estimated population of Wa-Bu at the end of 1981 was 25,000, corres— ponding to a density of 403 persons per kilometer. There are 5,430 households in Wa-Bu, each household averaging 4.7 persons. Sixty-five percent of the villagers dwell in their own residences, the average size of which is 700 square feet. It is estimated that about 60 percent of the villagers are served by sewerage systems. 47 48 Compared with other parts of South Korea, Wa-Bu is a predominantly agricultural village. (For the breakdown by occupation of Wa-Bu and the whole South Korea, see Table l in Appendix B.) About half of the villagers are farmers. The industrial and sales workers respectively constitute 15 percent and 7 percent of the total villagers. The median annual income per household is estimated at $3,571, which is substantially lower than the average income per farm household for entire South Korea($4,837: Korea Statistical Yearbook, 1981, p. 100). About three percent of the villagers live under the minimum subsistence level of $2,415 per year set by the South Korean government. Ten per- cent of the villagers earn more than $10,000 annually. The main commodity of the market is rice. The average size of a farm is about 0.32 hectare (.79 acre). Most of the landless farmers have been absorbed by industrial sector, and the majority of farmers now own their own rice paddies. The key financial institution is the Farmers' Cooperative, through which most transactions for agricultural commodities are handled. The Cooperative, which was established in the early 1960's as one of the measures of national agricultural policy, also makes small loans to farmers. All of the farmers use the Cooperative in one way or another. There are two supermarkets, and one Cattle Market which operates every five days fOr livestock trans- actions. During the past few years, a number of small- and medium-size industrial factories have been established in Wa-Bu. All of these factories are owned by Seoul entrepreneurs and their foreign partners seeking cheaper labor and factory sites than those in Seoul. Among 49 the industrial factories, five factories that produce auto parts, polyester, and other chemical goods employ more than 500 workers each. The literacy level of the villagers is about 95 percent. The educational institutions include seven elementary schools (6-year system), three junior-high schools (3-year system), and one profes- sional high school (equivalent to a 3-year senior-high school). There is one public-health-service bureau and two private hospitals. The public-health-service bureau is responsible for regular vaccination of students, and also provides free service for family planning. The major transportation system in Wa-Bu is town bus. About 20 town buses link various smaller villages in the Wa-Bu area. For the trip to Seoul area, ten additional buses are available. Other trans- portation systems in Wa-Bu are 20 taxis, about 100 passenger cars (40 of which are owned by governmental officials, 60 by private citizens), and a few trains that link Seoul and the mining areas in the farther eastern area. As to religion among the villagers, 40 percent are Buddhists, 20 percent are Christians, and the remaining 40 percent are of no specific religion. The forms of entertainment show the prevailing influence of Western culture: traditional folklore and games are rapidly disappear- ing, their places being taken by two billiard parlors, seven tea-rooms (serving coffee, tea and soft drinks), ten night-clubs, and one movie theatre. The political aspects of life in Wa-Bu are like those in other areas of South Korea in that any form of political activity that might present "threats to internal security" is strictly prohibited. Most of the villagers show indifference to political events, and some do not 50 want to be asked about politics at all. The government officials, who are more conscious about intelligence activities of the central govern- ment, tend to support various governmental policies unconditionally. The gap between the rich and the poor is not as striking as in the bigger cities, yet many of the industrial workers express strong dis- content about low wages, inadequate sanitary measures, and the lack of social security after retirement. Farmers seem to be much more satis- fied than the industrial workers in their general view toward society. In summary, Wa-Bu possesses many typical traits of the rural areas in South Korea. Rapid economic development, along with vigorous policies to transform rural areas, has resulted in almost total elimina- tion of poverty (for increase of GNP in South Korea, see Table 2 in Appendix B). All of the households are served by electricity. Other components of infrastructure such as transportation systems, irrigation facilities, and sewerage systems, are constantly improving. Success of the Farmers' Cooperative movement is evidenced in the increases in the overall agricultural productivity. Nonetheless, transformation from an agriculture-based economy to an industry-oriented one has created a distinctively disadvantaged social group consisting of factory workers--a position once held by the landless farmers. As in other areas in South Korea, the extreme rich and the extreme poor coexist. The constant surveillance and suppres- sion from the central government have numbed the villagers' sensitivity to political events. For most of the villagers, the central concern in life focuses on monetary reward, followed by the desire for enter- tainment. The concept of social or economic justice is still rela— tively new for most of the villagers, a result partly due to the 51 strong influences of Confucianism. Western influences in the villagers' life-styles are not so prevalent as in urban areas; however, the majority of the villagers expressed a strong desire to immigrate to foreign lands, particularly the United States, a land which is believed to be blessed with milk and honey. TelecommUnication Environment of the Village Most of the telecommunication services in Wa-Bu are handled by the main Post, Telegraph, and Telephone Office, located in the downtown. The nature of the telecommunication services will be reviewed, focusing on the ten telecommunication modes specified in the Model Operationali- zation. Postal Service: The average number of personal letters received per month is 1.8 pen-villager; the average number sent is .68. Domestic mails are delivered within three days. The base postage price for domestic mail is approximately 9¢. Telegraph: The telegraph services are mostly used for emergency notice among family members. The average number of telegraphs sent and received per day for the whole villagers is estimated at seven. The base price for a telegraph service is 75¢. Four postal workers are in charge of delivering both postal and telegraph services. Telephone: The total number of telephones installed in Wa-Bu as of the middle of 1982 is 700, of which 600 are in private residences. The telephone penetration rate amounts to approximately 11 telephones in every 100 households. The cost of installing a telephone is about $186, equivalent to that of a black-and-white television set. Seven hundred 52 additional telephones are expected to be installed within the next two years. Persons not having easy access to telephones can use facilities at the main Post, Telegraph and Telephone Office. About 70 percent of all telephone calls are made within the Wa-Bu area. For comparative distribution of telephone facilities in Wa-Bu, Seoul, and entire South Korea, see Table 3 in Appendix B. Loudspeaker: There are about 100 loudspeakers serving as the public- address systems. The amount of broadcasting time varies from one administrative unit to another. On the average, loudspeakers are used about three hours daily. The messages transmitted are agricultural instructions, marketing trend of agricultural commodities, basic health care, and other public announcements from the Farmers' Cooperative and the local government. Occasionally, messages for specific individuals can be sent through loudspeakers. Audio-Cassette: About 30 percent of the villagers own audio-cassette players. A cassette player can be purchased for approximately $50. Typically, villagers purchase pre-recorded cassettes from the local bookstore, and play them during leisure time. The cost of a 60-minute pre-recorded cassette-tape is close to $5. The most popular material in pre-recorded cassettes is contemporary music. Theatrical Movie: There is one movie theatre in Wa-Bu. The average turn-over time for movies is 5 days. The majority of the movies are domestically produced, although foreign movies are occasionally avail- able. The admission price is $1.75. .32919‘ Most households have at least one radio set, and some have three or four sets for individual household members. The consumer price for a radio set varies a great deal, ranging from $5 to $100. In total, 53 eight radio channels (five AM, three FM; all broadcast from Seoul) can be received in Wa-Bu. All stations broadcast 21 hours daily. Three AM stations and one FM station are owned and operated by the government- subsidized Korean Broadcasting System (KBS). The KBS-owned-and- operated FM station carries advertising messages. Two AM stations and one FM station, owned by private entities, are operated from revenues accrued from advertising. The content of messages differs depending on ownership: KBS-owned stations are more inclined to public affairs and instructional material, commercial stations to entertainment- oriented material. TeleVision: Television sets, which once were recognized as symbols of wealth, are now readily available to most of the villagers. Currently, the penetration rate for television sets is estimated to be almost 100 percent. The price of a black-and-white television set is approximately $200, that of a color set, close to $800. Those who own television sets at home have to pay a monthly subscription fee of $2 for a black- and-white set, $4 for a color set. A total of five television channels (four VHF, one UHF) are broadcast from Seoul. The Korean Broadcasting System (KBS) owns and operates three VHF stations. One VHF station is owned by a private company. One of the KBS-owned-operated VHF stations and the privately—owned VHF station accept advertising. The KBS-owned UHF station deals exclusively with instructional materials. The daily television broadcasting hours vary between weekdays and weekends-— eight and a half hours during weekdays, and 18 hours during weekends. Newspaper: Among a total of 5,430 households, 1,950 households (about thirty-six percent) subscribe to daily newspapers. Like radio and television, all newspapers available in Wa-Bu come from Seoul. 54 The monthly subscription rate for a newspaper is about $4. Besides the daily newspapers, farmers receive a free Farmers' Newspaper published by the local government unit. This paper typically contains material on new agricultural techniques, announcements from the Farmers' Cooperative, information on family-planning practices, and additional agriculture-related matters. Magazine: The subscription rate for magazines is of little interest because most magazines are bought at the local bookstore. The average price for a monthly magazine is estimated at $3.50 The following section provides a detailed description of the data- collection process and the characteristics of data. Data-Collection Process The data-collection process was divided into five major parts: 1) sampling among the villagers; 2) inventory schedule of telecommunica- tion modes; 3) panel discussion among a group of experts; 4) evaluation of demands for technical characteristics to activate technical functions; and 5) personal interviews with the decision-makers. 1. Sampling among the Villagers The sampling among the villagers will be explained in terms of development of questionnaire items, sampling technique, interviewers, and group discussion. Questionnaire Items: The questionnaire items are grouped into three categories: a) current satisfaction level of the 16 basic human needs, and overall satisfaction level in one's daily life; b) access to and frequency of usage for the ten telecommunication modes in one's daily 55 life; and c) demographic information including education, income, age, sex, and religion. The questionnaire items are given in Appendix C. All of the questionnaire items were initially constructed by the author. As a pretesting measure, the items were reviewed by the public- opinion specialists of the Korean Gallup Research Institute in Seoul. Some wording and syntax problems in the original questionnaire were corrected in accordance with the advice from the specialists. The revised questionnaire then had to be reevaluated by the local police authority to get security clearance. Two of the items, Political Freedom and Economic Justice, were then removed from the questionnaire. Sampling Techniques: Stratified sampling was chosen, since the popula- tion elements to be included in the sample were separated into non-over- lapping groups of five societal sectors (Scheaffer, Mendenhall & Ott, 1979, p. 59). The size of the total sample comprising the five societal sectors was chosen as 200. The size of each stratum (societal sector) was then made roughly proportional to occupational breakdown among the villagers. The sizes of the strata were: 24 for Professionals (including government officials, school teachers, religious leaders, and other managerial workers); 28 for Clerical Workers; 29 for Commercial Sector (keeper of big and small shops); 21 for Non-Agri- cultural Laborers (construction workers, low-waged factory workers); and 99 for Farmers. The sampling procedure followed conventional stratified practice in that the samples were drawn independently and at random in each stratum (Scheaffer, Mendenhall & Ott, 1979). Interviewers: A total of ten interviewers were hired among graduates of the Wa-Bu Junior High School. The main reason for selecting interviewers from the local area was to forestall antagonism and 56 secluded attitudes among the villagers toward urban elites. All of the interviewers had finished senior high school education, and some had finished college. All interviewers were currently working in the Wa-Bu area, some as school teachers, some as low-level administrators for the local government, and some as liaison officers for the Farmers' Cooperative. The interviewers were trained for three days with emphasis on accuracy in coding and on minimizing personal bias. After training, each interviewer was assigned to conduct 20 or more personal interviews with the preselected subjects. Gropp Discussion: To obtain information on the two items ruled out by the local police authority (Political Freedom and Economic Justice), a group discussion for each societal sector was scheduled. Five to seven villagers participated in the group discussion for each sector. All of the participants were asked to discuss freely their living conditions, and then to estimate the degree of satisfaction for Political Freedom and Economic Justice. The values obtained from group-discussion participants were averaged for each societal sector. The basic characteristics of data obtained from stratified sampling cover demographic information, satisfaction level, and telecommunication usage. Demographic Information The distribution of level of education, annual income, age, and sex among the total sample subjects is given in Table 4. The distribu- tion of education showed highest frequency for elementary~school graduates with 81 subjects (40.5 percent). For annual income among the subjects, the relatively poor group (annual income between $2,001 57' and $3,500) with 69 subjects (34.5 percent) constitutes the major portion. The age group between 40 and 49 had highest frequency, with 50 subjects (25.0 percent). Among 200 subjects, 138 (69.0 percent) were men and 62 (31.0 percent) were women. 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J Fpmgm>ov 116 (F=4.625, p=.OOl): Senior—High Graduates have the highest access to the Theatrical Film, followed by Junior-High Graduates, Elementary— School Graduates, No Schooling, and College Graduates. The access to Newspaper is most strongly affected by the level of income (F=2.158, p=.Ol6): the higher the level of income, the higher the access to Newspaper. In the Total-Access Score, level of education exerts the strongest effect (F=2.770, p=.034): the higher the level of education, the higher the Total-Access Score was. The mean values of the Total- Access Score br0ken down by the level of education, level of income, and societal sector, are listed in Table 30 in Appendix F. H4_3: For each individual, the access to the telecommunication modes affects the Overall Satisfaction Index S, after controlling for level of education, level of income, and profession. Before testing H4_2, inquiries had been made on the extent to which the demographic variables affect the Overall Satisfaction Index S, Again, a three-way analysis-of-variance test was applied with S_as the dependent variable, and with level of education, level of income, and profession as the independent variables. As shown in Table 31, the individual effects of each demographic variable on S were found to be significant. After partialing out the interaction effects among the three variables, their combined effect on S produced an overall F of 2.484, significant at the .001 level. After individual and combined effects of the demographic variables on the S_were confirmed, “4-3 was tested by means of analysis of covariance. Here, the Overall Satisfaction Index S_was the dependent 117 variable, and the access to the telecommunication modes and the Total- Access Score were the independent variables. The three demographic variables were construed as the Covariates that vary in parallel with S, In applying the analysis-of-covariance test, two different methods were employed. The first method removed extraneous variance inlS caused by the three covariates, and then estimated the effects of the access scores on S, The second method examined the effects of the access scores on S first, and then estimated additional variance in.S due to the covariates. TABLE 31 Effects of Education, Income, Profession on the Overall Satisfaction Index S, Three—Way Analysis-of-Variance Test (Overall F Values, N=200) Total Effects Combined Level of Level of after Accounting Effects Education Income Profession for Interaction 6.252*** 2.018* 2.459* 9.083*** 2.484*** *p < .05 ***p < .001 118 The results of the two different analysis-of-covariance tests are given in Table 32. In the first method, after partialing out combined and individual effects of the three covariates on S, only two modes-- Postal Service and Telegraph--were found to have significant effects on S, In the second method, somewhat different results were obtained: five modes--Postal Service, Telegraph, Telephone, Audio-Cassette, and Magazines--produce significant effects on S, Before removing effects of level of education, level of income, and profession on S, the Total- Access Score is also seen to make significant effect on the Overall Satisfaction Index S, The statistics obtained in two analysis-of- covariance tests can be summarized as follows: 1) Before any constraint on sources of variance in the Overall Satisfaction Index S_is imposed, the effects of the access to the telecommunication modes on S are found to be significant. 2) After removing effects of level of education, level of income, and profession on S, the effects of the access to the tele- communication modes on S_are found to be minimal. 3) The major reason for this seemingly insignificant effects of the access scores on S can be attributed to the fact that an overwhelming portion of variance in S_is accounted by level of education, level of income, and profession. Testing of H4_1, H4_2, and H4_3 confirms that access to the tele- communication modes does produce some effects on the overall satis- faction of the villagers. Access to those modes that represent the mass media, notably Radio and Television, seems to have little effect on the overall satisfaction level. The point-to-point telecommunication modes such as Postal Service, Telegraph, and Telephone produce more significant and positive effects on the overall satisfaction level of 119 Pacowu. 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531) ......... (10) In formula (7), E; is the sum of the seven values E;(q), each of which refers to the effectiveness of the m-th mode in facilitating the provision for the v-th basic human gggg_with respect to the q-th technical characteristic. In formula (8), supply and demand with respect to the q-th technical characteristic show identical values, reflecting a condition of a perfect match. The effectiveness of a telecommunication mode with respect to the q-th technical characteristic can, therefore, be taken from either the supply value or the demand value. The underlying 144 assumption of formula (8) is that the effectiveness of a given techno- logical choice is controlled by the magnitude of the values in supply and demand. In other words, if both the values in supply and in demand are 1, the effectiveness of a telecommunicatibn mode is 1, reflecting a perfect match, but with a low degree of magnitude. 0n the other hand, if both values in supply and in demand are 5, the effectiveness of a telecommunication mode is 5, reflecting a perfect match, and with a high degree of magnitude. The formulas (9) and (10) apply when there is a mismatch between supply and demand. In formula (9), the value of supply_with respect to the q-th technical characteristic is greater than that of demand, In such a case, the effectiveness of a mode is the value of 9292292 since additional capacity in supply after meeting the demand is superfluous. In formula (10), the value of supply_with respect to the q-th techno- logical characteristic is smaller than that of QSEEDQ: In such a case, the effectiveness of a mode is the value of supply, since the maximum capacity of a mode meeting the demand is limited by its supply. With these four formulas, the effectiveness of Postal Service in facilitating the provision for Nourishment (E1) is determined. First, the demands for the seven technical characteristics for Nourishment as given in Matrix l9 (2;) are examined against the supplies of the seven technical characteristics by Postal Service as given in first column of . l M S . atr1x 14 (—q) l45 Demand (Matrix 19 for Nourishment) q=1 q=2 q=3 q=4 q=5 q=6 q=7 v=l [3.30 3.52 3.61 3.64 3.93 2.68 2.30] Supply_(first column of Matrix 14 for Postal Service) q=1 q=2 q=3 q=4 q=5 q=6 q=7 m=1 [2.00 2.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 4.00 5.00] Second, comparison is made between values of supply and those of demand with respect to each technical characteristic. In q=1 (Prompt- ness), q=2 (Effective Bit Rate), and q=5 (Accessibility), the values of demang_are bigggr_than those of supply. Hence, formula (10) is applied, and effectiveness of Postal Service in terms of q=1, q=2, and q=5 is taken from values of supply§3ide: 51(1) = 2.00, 51(2) = 2.00, and E}(5) = 3.00. In the remaining four technical characteristics q=3 (Cheapness), q=4 (Reliability), q=5 (Storage/Retrieval Capacity), and q=7 (Confidentiality), the values of demang_are smaller than those of §upply, Hence, fbrmula (11) is applied, and the effectiveness of Postal Service with respect to q=3, q=4, q=6, and q=7, is taken from the values . . 1 = 1 = 1 = 1 = 0f_dem809:5}de- E1(3) 3.61, E](4) 3.64, E1(6) 2.68, and E1(7) 2.30. Third, the effectivenss of Postal Service in facilitating the provision for Nourishment (E1) comprising the seven technological characteristics is obtained by summing the properties of E}(q)'s: 1 1 As a result, the effectiVenss of Postal Service in facilitating the E = 2.00 + 2.00 + 3.61 + 3.64 + 3.00 + 2.68 + 2.31 = 19.23. provision for Nourishment is determined as 19.23. The same logic presented in formula (7), (8), (9), and (10), applies to the nine other telecommunication modes; hence the effectiveness of the 146 ten telecommunication modes under assessment in facilitating the pro— vision for Nourishment is estimated as: E} = 19.23 (m=1, Postal Service) E; = 18.89 (m=2, Telegraph) E; = 17.12 (m=3, Telephone) E1 = 17.43 (m=4, Audio-Cassette) E; = 16.43 (m-S, Loudspeaker) E; = 16.77 (m=6, Theatrical Film) E; = 18.59 (m=7, Radio) E; = 17.39 (m=8, Television) E; = 18.61 (m=9, Newspaper) E10: 17.45 (m=10, Magazine) The effectiveness of the ten telecommunication modes in facilitating the provision for Shelter (Ei) is estimated by comparing the demand-side as given in Matrix 20(92) with the supply-side as given in Matrix 14 (gg). To estimate the effectiveness of each mode in facilitating the provision for Clothing (E3), the demand-side as given in Matrix 21 (93) is compared with the supply-side as given in Matrix 14 (Sg). For Health 4) is (v=4), the effectiveness of the telecommunication modes (Em estimated from the difference between the demand-side as given in Matrix 22 (03) and the supply-side as given in Matrix 14 (§%). The outcomes of Phase III that identify the effectiveness of the ten telecommunication modes under consideration in facilitating the provision for each of Nourishment, Shelter, Clothing, and Health are 147 tabulated in the following four matrices. Matrix 23. Effectiveness of the m-th Mode in Facilitating the Provision for Nourishment *(v= l) (E E1) —m m=1 m=2 m=3 m=4 m=5 m=6 m=7 m=8 m=9 m=10 v=l [19.23 18.89 17.12 17.43 16.36 16.77 18.59 17.39 18.61 17.45] Matrix 24. Effectiveness of the m-th Mode in Facilitating the Provision for Shelter (v=2 ) (E2 ) m=1 m 2 m=3 m=4 m=5 m=6 m=7 m=8 m=9 m=10 v=2 [17.80 17.46 16.03 18.42 17.79 15.41 16.66 15.66 17.77 15.39] Matrix 25. Effectiveness of the m-th Mode in Facilitating the Provision for Clothing (v =3) (E3 ) m=1 m=2 m=3 m=4 m=5 m=6 m=7 m=8 m=9 m=10 v=3 [16.87 16.60 15.47 15.33 16.64 14.76 15.78 14.78 17.83 14.93] Matrix 26. Effectivenss of the m-th Mode) in EFacilitating the Provision for Health (v= g) m=1 m=2 m=3 m=4 m=5 m=6 m=7 m=8 m=9 m=10 v=4 [16.96 16.92 15.75 15.38 16.76 14.85 15.86 14.86 17.03 15.07] Phase IV The fourth phase of the measurement scheme is designed to derive the final outcomes of the Socio-Technical Assessment Model. At this phase, the concern is focused on how much the overall quality of life of all. societal sectors can be increased by the expansion of the specific tele- communication modes. The objective of Phase IV is formulated as: Objective: To derive the net contribution rates of the ten tele- communication modes under assessment to incrementing the overall quality of life of the village society as a whole from the provision for the four basic needs under investigation--Nourishment, Shelter, Clothing and Health. 148 In the earlier part of Phase IV, the second criterion of the Maximum Expected Value (MEV) technique—-compute the expected value of each action by multiplying each value [of each consequence] by its corresponding products and summing these products—-is in operation. Here, the Socio-Technical Assessment Model assumes that the net contri- bution rates of the telecommunication modes to enhancing the overall quality of life are controlled by two elements: first, the extent to which the telecommunication modes can facilitate the provision for the specific basic human needs; second, the degree to which the specific basic human needs can contribute to increasing the overall quality of life of the villagers. Based on this assumption, the net contribution rates of the telecommunication modes are derived from integrating the outcomes of Phase III with those of Phase II. The outcomes of Phase III are 40 scalars, tabulated in four matrices, each of which represents the effectiveness of the m-th telecommunication mode in facilitating the provision for the specific basic needs--Nourishment, Shelter, Clothing, and Health (Matrix 23, 24, 25, and 26). The outcomes of Phase 11 con- sist of four scalar values (Scalar 1, 2, 3, and 4) which designate the potential contributing rates of Nourishment, Shelter, Clothing, and Health, to enhancing the overall quality of life of the villagers as a whole. The mathematical operation was handled through a formula: V = v . v A§m A§_ Em, ..... (11) in which 4§; refers to the net contribution rate of the m-th telecom- munication mode in enhancing the overall quality of life of the village society as a whole from the provision for the v-th basic human need; 149 ASY refers to the potential contributing rate of the v-th basic human need to enhancing the overall quality of life of the village society; and_E; refers to the effectiveness of the m-th mode in facilitating the provision for the v-th basic human need, Nith formula (11), the net contribution rates of the ten telecom- munication modes from the provision for Nourishment are calculated with 1 Matrix 23 (Em, which identifies the effectiveness of the m-th mode in facilitating the provision for Nourishment), and with Scalar 1 (A§?=0.153), which represents the potential contributing rate of Nourishment to increasing the overall quality of life of the village. The final out- comes of the mathematical operations consist of 10 scalar values, which were obtained through: =1 =1 m=1 ”19.23\ (2.94\ x =1 =2 18.89 2.89 =2 =3 17.12 2.62 =3 m=4 17.43 2.67 =4 .153 x m=5 16.36 = 2.50 m=5 a§1 =6 16.77 2.57 =6 m=7 18.59 2.84 m=7 =8 17.39 2.66 m=8 m=9 18.61 2.85 m=9 m=10 \J7.45/ E2.67/ m=10 The net contribution rates of the telecommunication modes from the provision for Shelter (v=2) are obtained through multiplying Scalar 2 150 (Aé? = 0.114),which represents the potential contributing rate of Shelter to enhancing the quality of life of the village society as a whole, by the elements in Matrix 24 (fig). The net contribution rates of the telecommunication modes from the provision for Clothing (v=3) are obtained from multiplying the elements in Matrix 25 (6;) by sta1ar 3 (as? = 0.185),which represents the potential contributing rate of Clothing to enhancingthe overall quality of life of the village. The net contribution rates of the telecommunication modes from the provision for Health (v=4) are obtained from multiplying the elements in Matrix 26 (§$) by sta1ar 4 (as? = 0.143),which designates the poten- tial contributing rate of Health to enhancing the overall quality of life of the village). The final outcomes that represent the net contributing rates of the specific telecommunication modes to incrementing the overall quality of life of the village society as a whole from the provision for Nourish- ment, Shelter, Clothing, and Health, are tabulated in Table 42. In Table 42, all of the 16 basic needs are included, recalling the need for analysis fbr all of the basic human needs that constitute the quality-of- 1ife scheme of the Socio-Technical Assessment Model. The desirability of a telecommunication mode can then be estimated by the summing of the products across each column in Table 42. If we confine ourselves to the four basic needs examined in the present study-- Nourishment, Shelter, Clothing, and Health--the desirability of each of the ten telecommunication modes is estimated as: 151 Mpgg_ Desirability Bapg Postal Service 10.52 2 Telegraph 10.37 Telephone 9.56 7 Audio-Cassette 9.81 6 Loudspeaker 10.01 4 Theatrical Film 9.18 10 Radio 9.95 5 Television 9.33 9 Newspaper 10.65 1 Magazine 9.37 8 The most desirable telecommunication mode, with respect to Nourish- ment, Shelter, Clothing, and Health, is found to be Newspaper; whereas the least desirable telecommunication mode is found to be Theatrical film, Overall, the telecommunication modes that deliver messages through languages such as Newspaper, Postal Service, and Telegraph appear to be the attractive choices for this particular case. In view of the facts that literacy rate reaches almost 100 percent in Wa-Bu, and that the telecommunication modes relying on printed matters are relatively under- utilized, the results of the Socio-Technical Assessment Model seem plausible. The particularly low desirability rate for Theatrical Film and Television may stem from the entertainment-dominated content of these audio-visual telecommunication modes. 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