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SOCIAL CHANGE AND OCCUPATIONAL MOBILITY IN
URBAN ZAMBIA

BY

Pempelani Oliver Mufune

A THESIS

Submitted to
Michigan State University
in partial fulfillment of the requirements
for the degree of

MASTER OF ARTS

Department of Sociology

'1982

ABSTRACT

SOCIAL CHANGE AND OCCUPATIONAL MOBILITY IN
URBAN ZAMBIA

BY

Pempelani Oliver Mufune

This thesis deals with the effect of rapid social change
as represented by a new political order and dependent industri-
alization (and their associated effects on societal institu-
tions) on intragenerational and intergenerational occupational
mobility. Mobility is conceived of as movement of individuals
between and through levels of a society's social stratifica-
tion. The literature on social mobility is dominated by two
schools. These are the status attainment and opportunity schools.
’ We have summarized the main ideas from the two schools. The
difference between the two schools stem from their different
focus. The opportunity school's researchers focus is on rates
of mobility while the focus of researchers in status attainment
is on distribution of individuals among positions. We argue
that the two schools also converge in important respects, such
that it is possible to derive a dynamic model which links op-
portunity structures to individual attributes in the attainment
of positions.

In the second chapter, we deal with socio-historical

background of the Zambian situation and the specification of

Pempelani Oliver Mufune

age cohort categories, investigating the link between occu-
pational demands and educational production as related to po-
litical, urbanization and dependent industrialization process-
es. The cohorts are derived such that they reflect changes

in occupational demands and labour market structures.

In the third chapter, we state our problem of investi-
gation. After addressing debates on processes of democrati-
zation and crystallization of opportunity in the third world,
we face the underlying question of how the changing character
of societal institutions affect patterns of occupational mo-
bility. We break up this question into three hypotheses which
we believe to be testable through cohort analysis. The cre-
dential inflation hypothesis predicts that as the amount of
education in society increases, it will lead to increases in
education needed on the part of those aspiring to fill certain
occupations. The second hypothesis predicts that the influence
of fathers in the occupational and educational achievements
will be much stronger in the younger generation as patterns
of social stratification consolidate. The third hypothesis
predicts that occupational mobility will be greatest in the
older population because these entered the labor market when
it was changing from agricultural to industrial based occupa-
tions. To test these hypotheses, we utilized data collected
in Zambia (1973) by Professor David Wiley. We focused our
attention on the random sample of 884 males. Path models were

utilized to test structural equations as specified in the

Pempelani Oliver Mufune

Statistical Package for Social Sciences. We also used Zero-
order correlations and cross tabulation. We constructed a
prestige scale, to use in the path model, based on Lay's
(1973) "Zambian Scale" and Treiman's (1977) "International
Standard Occupation Prestige Scale."

The last chapter deals with results, analysis and dis-
cussion. Based on the data we have, we have been able to
show that the younger cohort manifests more education for spe-
cific occupations than do the older cohorts. In other words,
our data tend to support the credential inflation hypothesis.
We have mixed, hence quite inconclusive, results in regard to
the second hypothesis. We found that in some cases, there
was more transfer of advantage from father to son in the younger
than in the older generations. This was not necessarily so
in some cases for transfer of advantage was much more apparent
in the middle cohort. Similarly, we have mixed results with
regard to intragenerational mobility. In some cases, educa-
tion proved to be a more effective instrument for gaining
high prestige occupations among the younger than in the older
generations, while in other cases, education was more effec-
tive in the middle cohort as a means to gaining privileged
positions. We explained these mixed results in reference to
effects of career stages and also historical background. We
cannot clearly segregate the effects of career stages from
that of historical period because of the nature of our data.

This is a problem flowing from use of cohort analysis.

Pempelani Oliver Mufune

Zero-order correlations reveal that educational and occupa-
tional achievements are becoming more associated over time.
We conclude that occupational achievements are being affected
not only by educational, nor for that matter occupational de-
mands, but also changes in the economy and polity. Politics
may be affecting occupational mobility in such a way as to
produce no clear pattern of mobility. Whether there is demo-
cratization or crystallization of opportunity may be a poli-

tical question depending on political circumstances.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

I wish to express my sincere thanks to Professor David Wiley.

Due to him I was able to Use data collected in surveys conducted under his
direction in urban Zambia in l973. As chairman of my guidance committee
Dr. Wiley has provided support. inspiration, expertise on the statistical
analyses of the data and constructive criticism without which this thesis
might never have been completed.

I also extend thanks to Doctors William Faunce and Jay Artis for
serving on my committee and for their questions, commentary and encourage-
ment from which I have greatly benefitted.

I Special thanks go to the African and Zambian community at Michigan
State University as represented by Manenga and Maria Ndulo, David and Naomi
Sibalwa, Lovejoy and Catherine Malambo, Mwizenge and Beth Tembo, Ken and
Yvonne Mwanza, Saboi Sishimba, Pauline Peart, Mr..and Mrs. H. A. B. Msuku,
and Peter Ngategize for their optimism and encouragement.

Still in East Lansing I would like to thank Adreana Pringle for
the informal discussions on models of social mobility and for the support
she gave in transporting the material for typing. I should also thank

Julia for providing excellent typing of the thesis in face of the deadlines.

ii

TABLE OF CONTENTS

CHAPTER PAGE
I INTRODUCTION ....................... 1
Literature Review ................... 2
Status attainment school: theoretical background,
model ........................ 2
The opportunity school: the model .......... 5
The two schools contrasts and comparisons ....... 6
The emerging model .................. 6

Explaining the model: economic change and urbaniza-

tion; urbanization, economic change and occupational
structure; urbanization, economic change and the edu-
cational system; economic change, class and family . . 10

II HISTORICAL BACKGROUND OF THE ZAMBIAN SITUATION AND COHORT

FORMATION ........................ 18
Political pressure and the evolution of the educa-'
tional system in Zambia ............... 18
Aspects of urbanization in Zambia .......... 20

The case for using cohort in studying social change. . 22

On the formation of our cohort groups ......... 23
Economic growth and the creation of wage employment in
Zambia . ....................... 24
III PROBLEM SPECIFICATION AND METHODOLOGY ........... 31
Hypotheses ...................... 34
Data and Methodology ................. 37
IV RESULTS AND ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION ............ 39

Characteristics of the Three City Male Random Sample . . .39

iii

CHAPTER ’ PAGE
Comparing fathers to sons ............... 42

Comparing Male Cohort Mean Educational Achievements -
A Test of the Credential Inflation Hypotheses ...... 45

Behavioral Patterns of Educational and Occupational At-

tainments: Testing Intergenerational and Intragenera-

tional Privilege Transfer Hypotheses .......... 49
Intergenerational Status Transfers ....... t . . 53
Intragenerational (within career) status achievements . 59

Inter and within generation mobility based on Zero-

order correlations .................. 63

Discussion and Conclusion ................ 65
APPENDICES ............................ 69
I On Prestige Scales of Occupations ............ 69

2 On Data and Methodology ................. 79

BIBLIOGRAPHY ........................... 83

iv

TABLE OF ILLUSTRATIONS

FIGURE PAGE
A An Emerging Causal Model .................. 9

B Wage-Earning Africans in Employment, l921-l967, Inside and
Outside Northern Rhodesia/Zambia .............. 28a

C Path Models with Standardized Regression Coefficients of
Educational and Occupational Status Inheritance from
Fathers to Male Respondents and Hithin Respondents for all
Age Cohorts in the Three City Random Sample, l973 ...... 5l

D Path Model Utilizing Standardized Regression Coefficients of
Educational and Occupational Status Inheritance from Fathers
to Son and Within Sons Career in Three City Sample According

to Age Cohort ........................ 52
TABLE
l Zambian Urbanization l963-l974 ............... 21
2 Percentage Annual Growth Rate in Real Gross Domestic Pro-
duct, Zambia 1965-76 .................... 27

3 The Ratio of Capital to Labor 1965 and l973 in Constant
Kwacha', Zambia ...................... 29

4 Comparative Distribution of Education of all Employed
Males Not Attending School Zambia, 1969, Compared with

Male Education in the Three City Sample, l973 ....... 4O
5 Distribution of Employment Among Zambian Males in 1969

Census and in l973, Three City Random Sample ........ 4l
6 Education Achievement by Occupational Category in the

Three City Sample, Male Respondents (l973) ......... 43
7 Educational Attainment of Fathers of our Male Respondents

in Three City Sample by Occupational Category, l973 . . . . 44

8 Mean Years of Education Attained by Male Cohorts by Occu-
pational Category in Three City Sample ........... 47

TABLE PAGE

9 Percentage of Cases Missing from Path Model ........ 54
TO Summary of Results Pertaining to Intergenerational Transfer

of Privilege ........................ 57
ll Social Origin of the Male Respondents in Three City Sample

by Age Cohorts ...................... 6la
l2 Zero Order Correlations between Dimensions of Status-

Attainment for the Three Zambian Age Cohorts (Older, Middle

and Younger) l973 ..................... 64

13 Deviations in Prestige Rankings of Occupations of Males in
Lusaka, Zambia and Combined SIOPS Inventory ........ 72

vi

CHAPTER I
Introduction

This thesis is focused on aspects of social mobility in the rapid
social change of Urban Zambia. He shall broadly consider structural and
individual factors which affect the social economic positions of individ-
uals.

Social mobility refers to the movement of individuals from one-1eve1
to another within a society's system of social stratification. Conversely,
social stratification can be conceptualized as a 'system of restricting
access to positions of varying advantage' (Noble, 1974). Social mobility
indicates the degree to which positions of advantage accrue to people at
lower levels and conversely the ability of those at the top to maintain
their positions.

Sorokin's Social Mobility (1927) was the first classic on the topic.

 

According to Nesolowski, et a1 (1979) Sorokin generated much discussion on
the causes, processes and results of social mobility. Not until the 19505
were other works comparable to Sorokin's written. To this effect the
writings of Rogoff (1953), Glass (1954). Carlson (1958), Lipset and Bendix
(1959), Svalatoga (1959) and Miller (1960) are important. These built on
Sorokin's research tradition but did not necessarily lead to new directions.
Hesolowski, et a1 (1979) argue that by the late 1960's there was need to
ground social mobility research in class/stratification theory.

From this point of divergence developed two paradigms currently

dominating mobility research. These are the 'status attainment school'

and the 'opportunity school.‘ The status attainment model was fully ex-
pressed in Blau and Duncan's The American Occupational Structure (1967).
The aim of this group of researchers was to investigate determinants of
individuals'social status, i.e. what accounts for the distribution of
individuals among positions-n-a micro perspective. The opportunity model
was fully expressed by Boudon in a book entitled, Education,_Opportunity
and Social Inequality (1974). This group of researcher's aim is to answer
the question-u-what accounts for the rate of mobility in society-u-a macro
perspective.
Literature Review

The status attainment school

Apart from Blau and Duncan other well known researchers in this
school include Hauser (1969), Featherman (1974), Treiman (1977), and
Sewell (1975). Apart from Sewell who had worked in this area before, the
work of most others can be said to be building upon Blau and Duncan's

origina1*work.

Theoretical background of status attainment literature

Burawoy (1977) and Coser (1975), among others have alluded to the
atheoretical nature of status attainment literature, an assertion which
Horan (1978), Qvortrup (1979), Crowder (1974) believe is a misconception.
These have strived to go beyond mere critiques of status attainment
research to demonstrate that the criticized aspects have their roots, to
use Horan's phrase, in their 'theoretically laden nature'-n-i.e. in the
functionalism of Davis and Moore (1945) and Parsons (1949, 1953).

The paper by Davis and Moore (1945) was one of the most articulate

among functionalist writings on social stratification. Over the years it

has elicited a great deal of discussion, and this presentation of it is
quite simplified.

For Davis and Moore each society has social stratification. Every
society has ranked social positions differentiated with rewards and status
in terms of their functional importance. These rewards are given for
estimations of the contributions to society by role occupants. The posi-
tions can be described as having 'unequal functional importance' (Buckley
1963). How are the differentially ranked social positions assigned? Davis
and Moore (1945) assume the existence in society of an unequal supply of
talent. The eufunctioning of the system requires that the most qualified
members of society fill positions with higher requirements of skill and
knowledge. The theory assumes higher prestige positions require higher
levels of skill and knowledge. Thus the occupants of different positions
are given unequal rewards so as to motivate them. The operative principle
is, 'from each according to his ability and to each according to his
contribution' (Tausky 1963). For Davis and Moore (1945) stratification
is the system of unequal rewards attached to different social positions
in a society. The system is functional in that positions are deemed more
important if they contribute more to society's adaptability and survival.
Accordingly these positions are more highly rewarded. Differences in
stratification between different societies, Davis and Moore maintain,
stem from the mode of filling the important positions and their definition.
Talcott Parsons (1940, 1953) is largely consonant with Davis and Moore's
(1945) account of stratification. Stratification is universal and neces-
sary; however, he lays emphasis on a 'common value system.‘ He views

stratification then as the 'ranking of individuals in a social system in

accordance with the standards of a common value system' (Gouldner 1970).
He places this in his scheme of pattern variables emphasizing differences
in the openness and modernity of different societies.

Researchers in status attainment have been said to be in the func-
tionalist tradition by Horan (1978), Quortrup (1979) and Crowder (1974).
Thus, they have been said to distinguish between open and closed societies
with the former characterized by universalist, specific and affective neu-
tral roles. They have been said to work in a specific value system of
liberalism, individualism and private property (Horan 1978, p. 538, Quortrup
1979, p. 275, Crowder 1974, p. 39). This leads status attainment research,
the argument goes, to place emphasis on individual and also an insistence
on equality of opportunity rather than of conditions.

The opponents of status attainment research may have overstated
their case. Social mobility must face two different questions: what ac-
counts for the rate of mobility and what accounts for the distribution of
individuals among positions. It so happens that status attainment researCh-
ers are preoccupied with individual rather than with structure because they
concern themselves with the latter question. Measures of individual behavior
and belief do not necessarily presuppose a functionalist position. Indi-
vidual researchers may be close to or may share some common assumptions
with functionalist stratification theory but this does not mean that all

status attainment research is grounded in functionalism.

The model

Status attainment researchers focus on a set of intervening vari-

ables in order to explain the transition from status origin to destination.

Thus, 'a person starts life and spends the early part of it in a family,
acquires education, translates this eduCation into an occupation which in
turn gives him an income and status.‘ These life cycles occur in more or
less temporal order in which factors at each prior stage influence those
at the next (Crowder 1974, Duncan 1969). As Haller and Portes (l973)
show,the Blau and Duncan model of status attainment aims at reconceptual-
izing classic questions of mobility by use of a more analytic model.

They want to gauge how far the social fate of individuals depends on the
status they inherit and how far later career achievements depend on earlier
ones. Thus the model employs objective status variables to investigate

the process whereby status is transmitted.

The opportunity school

On the basis of the various criticisms of the status attainment
researchers and their neglect to account for the rate of mobility,a
separate school has developed which Sorenson (1976) has labelled the
'opportunity school.‘

Researchers here aim at determining the degree to which patterns
and amounts of social mobility depend on the larger social structures and
social change in society (Hesolowski et a1 1979). Their concern is with
mechanisms of social processes lying behind observed causal processes for
occupational attainment (Sorensen 1976).

The stratification theory of the opportunity school is more eclectic.
Boudon (1974) himself approvingly quotes Dahrendorf to the effect that,
present social stratification theory is an 'Oedus 1and,‘ i.e. a desert.
because, although there is a mass of writings, there exist no satisfactory

stratification theory concerning industrial society; however, Boudon

himself seems to share, 'an elective affinity to certain non-dogmatic

neo-marxian literature' (Alker 1976).

The opportunity school model

Researchers in the opportunity school assume there exists in
society unequal status as 'created' (processed) by the family through
socialization and unequal access to educational opportunity (IEO). It
is also assumed that inequalities in social opportunity (ISO) exist along-
side meritocratic principles and values which serve legitimation purposes.
The issue then is how far do achievement patterns conform to the merit-
ocratic principle and how far do children replicate their parents' social
status.

In the opportunity model, endogenous and exogenous mechanisms
responsible for inequality are distinguished. Endogenous mechanisms are
reflected in choices related to individual desires and decisions emanating
from the processes of socialization and selection which are internalized
by individuals. For example, one chooses to enter school provided he or
she is qualified. Exogenous mechanisms do not present much choice to
the individual. They refer to actions limited or fixed by political,
technological and/or organizational forces. For example, a job does not
exist just because an individual wants to fill it. These researchers
utilize endogenous mechansims producing IEO, transmitting it into ISO,
so as to explain the direction and amount of mobility over time in the

context of existing exogenous mechanisms.

The two schools

The stressed differences between researchers in the status-attainment

and in the opportunity school tradition have mainly been ideological. As

Rogoff (1976) notes,the two schools have common ground and converge in
important respects:

i. They both describe mobility in a temporal framework focus-
ing on calendar time and/or life cycle. Thus, in both the
concern is with tracing successive cohort status.

ii. A major idea behind both is Noble's (1974) conception of
stratification, in part, as 'the restriction of access to
positions of varying advantage.‘ This leads them to look
at mechanisms of restriction versus mechanisms of freedom
affecting individuals. For those in the opportunity school,
this is expressed as meritocracy versus domination, for
the others as ascription versus achievement.

iii. Both are concerned with initial role allocation. The main
consideration rests with the family and school which are
considered as determinant of the period around adolescence
which in turn sets the stage on which positions are gained
or lost.

iv. The differences between status attainment and opportunity
school researchers surface regarding solutions to problems
related to blocked mobility, i.e. at the level of resource
distribution.

When the task defined is to analyze social change and mobility, then

both schools have much to offer, for they are not mutually exclusive.

It is possible to derive a causal model from both schools which is help-
ful in explaining the social mobility of individuals in a rapidly changing
social situation. Moreover the two schools are based on an unsound con-

ception of the division between micro and macro sociology arising from

the argument in theory as to what is the nature of the relationship be-
tween individual and society: that is asking as to whether one or the
other has dominant effects, i.e. is society primary while personality
is derivative or vice versa? Our approach here is similar to Berger
and Luckmann (1967) where society is conceived of as both an objective
and subjective reality, where the relationship between individual and
objective reality is like an 'ongoing balancing act' and therefore in a

situation of dynamic if not dialectical interaction.

 

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Explaining the model

The central focus of the model is on capacity of individuals to
use existing structures and opportunities in 'gaining and losing' social
economic position. The basic question is -- does the changing character
of societal structures imply an increase or decrease in individuals ex-
perience of mobility? An individual's position is largely conditioned
by his capacity (socially inherited and acquired) to react to changing
levels of urbanization (alterations in rural - urban ratios); industri-
alization (economic changes adding to formal industrial employment) and
their complex interaction with class structures which affect and are
affected by occupational, educational and family syStems.

We assume societies differ in their stress on the principles of
merit and ascription. Meritocracy relates to equality of opportunity
rather than of conditions (i.e. of wealth and power). Ideally, for
instance, in a system of unequal conditions an education system can
exist in which the talented are selected and promoted on the basis of
their performance and other universalistic criteria. The ascription
principle implies no use of universalistic criteria. In practice the
distinction between the two principles is much more complex. Universal-
istic criteria like education can themselves imply ascription. Thus po-
sitions are gained on the basis of school certificates which are taken to
be indicators of skill and knowledge on the job, but this may not neces-
sarily be the case. In Africa education becomes justification for privilege
legitimized on the basis of "need for development." For simplicity's sakelwe

see meritocracy as more apparent in a situation where one's position depends

11

on achievements in the educational and occupational systems regardless
of family background. Conversely ascription is more apparent where one‘s
family exerts more influence in gaining position. However, we keep in

mind’that every system is a mixture of meritocracy and ascription.

Economic change and urbanization

By urbanization we mean increases in the proportion of people liv-
ing in urban areas, and this can be a consequence both of migration and of
internal growth in towns themselves. By economic change, we mean changes
in the organization, production and technological levels of industry. This
can entail a movement from a domestic economy to small scale manufacture
to larger scale industry. This can imply need for an expanded labor sup-
ply and market. Thus, ideally towns are suitable for industry. This led
Balan et a1 (1973) to say 'there is no known case of large scale industrial
change with no concomitant urbanization.‘ However, the two can occur
separately.

Using mining as an example of a town forming factor in Africa,
Lisowski (1978) reviewed literature pertaining to the relationship be-
tween industrialization and urbanization. He found that mines in them-
selves do not make cities but have been vital in their coming up in some
tropical African countries. Over 10% of towns in tropical Africa owe
their origins to mining. The share of mining towns of over 10,000 people
are -- for Zambia 56%, Zimbabwe 50%, Liberia 25%, Sierra-Leone 25%, and
Zaire 14% (Lisowski 1978). Mining gave impetus to urbanization but the
relationship between the two has been limited. Thus where mining demand
for labor does not grow fast, stagnates or drops, it is observed that

urbanization then outpaces industry. For this to happen, original rural

12

societies have to be greatly altered. Lisowski (1978) argues that in
situations where rural societies are intact is has been observed that
lessened mining industrial activity leads to less urbanization. Thus,
some mining settlements of 10,000 people before 1950 declined. This was
the case with Kilomines in Zaire, Aboso in Ghana, Bindura and Sinoia in

' Zimbabwe. Bibian, in Ghana, has similarly experienced a drop from 13,000
people in 1967 to 9,700 in 1970. In tropical Africa then mining indus-
trial developments seem to have a close relation to urbanization which
seems to be influenced by regionally, specific historical circumstances.
This is especially so for Zambia which mining has made the most urbanized

nation in black Africa.

Urbanization, economic change and occupational structure

Industry and town seem to be consequential for the occupational
system. Hilbert Moore (1969) conceptualizes this in terms of increased
division of labor, noting an increase in the size of economic organiza-
tions allowing for more specialization. He also notes technological changes
creating entirely new occupations and novel services and products cre-
ating hitherto non-existent occupations (Faunce and Form 1969). Indus-
trial change implies changes within the economy such as an increase in
percentage of labor in industry relative to agriculture. It also implies
a shift in the concentration of labor from primary to secondary to ter-
tiary sectors of the economy. An increase in the use of machines in the
labor process may in some sectors create skilled as distinct from unskilled
and semi-skilled labor but sometimes breaks up skills (e.g. craft)
into semi-skilled jobs. The relationship between skilled labor and

mechanization then seems to be very complex depending on circumstances,

13

technology, etc. (Marx 1977). 'There have been investigations of some

of the above statements in the Third World. Farooq (1973) investigated
changes in the labor force with changes in industrial levels for west and
east Pakistan in the decade 1951 - 1961. He found that although agriculture
still predominated there was a tendency for its decrease especially in
the west where the rate of industrial change was higher. The west had
4.5% per annum growth of nonfarm employment and a 6% increase in the pro-
portion of nonagriculture labor force. There were also changes towards
rising industrial skills and productivity with increased industrial
activity. Joseph Ramos (1970) found that for Latin-America-the quality
of the labor force changed with increased industrial activity. There was
an increase in the average number of years of schooling for workers.

Hazel Moir (1977) did a time series study relating labor force structure
urbanization and development. She found that for Third World, the ratio
of urbanization and the percentage share of the labor force in nonagri-
culture neither affects nor is affected by increase of industrial activity.
In Africa most studies on changes in the labor force in economic develop-
ment have focused on stabilization -- i.e., whether there has been a
commitment to wage labor employment by the people. This commitment to
wage labor is important for mobility because it is only such a labor
force which can collectively and individually seek mobility opportunities,
improvement in skills and education. For Zambia,Mitchell (1961),Heissler
(1974) and Baldwin (1966) have argued labor stabilization has occurred

with increased industrial activity.

l4

Urbanization, economic change and the education system

 

There seensto be a close reciprocal relation between industry and
education. Hith industrial activity increase, education is no longer for
socializing individuals in traditional philosophy, religion, classics
or law but stress is laid on natural science, medicine, etc. (Kerr,
et al 1969). with the movement from small scale to large scale industry
there seems to be a dialectical pull towards both specialization and
generalization. Specialization is needed to develop professionals,
technicians, and managers. 0n the other hand, in a rapidly changing
situation there is an increase in knowledge making for difficulties
in specialization. Individuals perceive 'benefits' of education and
thus demand its increase. Industry stimulates demand for education and
skill, on the other hand, industries have educational subsystems like
apprenticeships. Thus there is a reciprocal relation.

The above seem to be the case for Africa. The whole social economic
system is closely related to the distribution and provision of opportunity
and education. Soja (1968) and Gould (1970) looking at Kenya and Uganda
found that location of schools were greatly affected by spread effects
such as the distribution of population and backwash effects such as
economic development. In many rural areas the population is dispersed,
hence politically weak, making it difficult to establish schools and
so educational opportunities are denied. In urban areas the higher
population density makes it easier to establish cheaper day, as against
boarding schools. In Ghana the distribution of schools was. said by
Hunter to reflect differences in wealth (quoted in Gould 1970). Clignet

(1966) holds the‘same position for Ivory Coast and so does Forster (1968)

15

for Senegal. Most studies then suggest that urban areas in Africa have
more opportunities because they are richer, have greater awareness of
educational benefits and, above all, are relatively politically strong.
The provision of education to them is a way of appeasing real or poten-
tial political opposition. This seems to constitute and determine the
demand and supply of education. As Bowles (1978) notes this can have
unintended consequences of producing 'credential inflation' i.e. a
contradiction where school system produces more graduates than there are
jobs in capitalist mode leading to escalated qualification for jobs in
turn leading to frustrated expectations and demand for access to next

educational level and so on.

Economic change, class and family

The family is not impervious to changes in modes of work, life
expectancies, migration, loss of functions to schools, factories, etc.
associated with urbanization and economic change. For developed countries
researchers say parental authority has been weakened whereas strong-
kinship relations only remain in the nuclear family -- a specialized unit
of emotional gratification (Parker et a1). Lloyd (1967) argues that in
Africa there are growing differences in socialization of children between
classes. Specifically citing Nigeria, he says elites know how to manipu-
late the educational system. They employ tutors to teach their children
and through their influence put their children in higher or better schools.
Elite child socialization places emphasis on the realization of potential
abilities and thus is more tolerant of aggressive behavior in play. Non-

elites emphasize cooperation. Radical theorists such as Batzel (1958)

16

and Domhoff (1970) have argued that the family reproduces existing patterns
of inequalities in society by influencing individual aspirations, ambition
and provision of the means for translating ambitions into opportunities
without challenging opportunity structures themselves.

In summary we can say that a review of research pertaining to in-
vestigated relationships between urbanization, economic changes, family,
class, occupation and educational systems leads to/or reveals conceptions
embodied in our model (Figure A). The relationships are complex and con-
jectural but embody a conception tying together structures of society,
structures of reward and opportunity, and individuals and family units.
Basic to our model (Figure A) is the conception that the structures of
society, both structures of opportunity and structures of reward, exist
.2519; to the individual and the family unit. These structures are largely
determined by the given, but sometimes changing, system of social stratifi-
cation in the society. This system reflects the underlying system of
power and authority of the "preceding historical period," from which
emerges a mixed system of rewards and sanctions for individuals. Rewards
nay be allocated for quality performance, but access to the ability to
learn (socialization and education) those performances are unequally.
distributed across the class system. Throughout the system also exist
sanctions for "performance failures;" however, there also are various
amounts of leniency and "forgiveness" according to the nature of the class
position of the actor and the nature of the task and organization in
which the occupational role of the actor is located.

Social mobility, therefore, is conceived as the process by which in-

dividuals from unequal social origins obtain unequal levels of preparation

l7

(socialization and education) and then unequal attainment of occupational
level.

The occupational system, however, also is changing according to
a) the nature of the economic state of the world system, b) the supply
and demand for the materials, goods, and serviCes produced in a state,

c) the supply of more and less skilled workers, d) the competing occupa-
tional systems in neighboring states, and e) the policy of the state in

the allocating of rewards to workers in various industries, sectors,

and occupational levels, indeed, even to particular occupational roles.

It is difficult in any occupational system to obtain a good sampling
of the major attributes of the éystgm. One alternative to sampling the
major social forces which shape the system is to sample the experience
of workers moving through the system. Workers entering at different
times in history experience different rates and types of mobility, rewards
and sanctions for performances, and arrive with various levels of sociali-
zation and education for those occupational roles.

One method of segregating the nature of the differences in the
occupational structure at different periods of history is to observe the
gross levels of mobility occurring at any given time in the system and
to associate those levels with the observed rates and directions of occupa-

tional and economic mobility of the workers in the system.

CHAPTER II

On the Historical Background of Zambian Situation
and Specification of the Cohorts

Political pressure and the evolution of the educational system in Zambia
Three broad levels of education can be identified in Zambia. The
first is the primary stage consisting of 7 (previously 8) years of educa-
tion. The secondary stage consisting of 5 years (previously 6) of educa- '
tion, and post-secondary stage consists of teacher, technical and nursing
training colleges, and the university. At independence in 1964 the country
of about 4 million had less than 1,000 citizens with a high school cer-
tificate and less than 100 had completed a university degree. Thus post
primary education was quite underdeveloped (Elliot 1975, Coombe 1967,
G.R.Z. 1969).
Primary education was different. As early as around 1884 Anort, a
French missionary, had started a school in the Western Province. By
1937 primary education had been spread by missionaries until nearly
30,000 pupils were enrolled. By the 19405 over 100,000 pupils had been
enrolled in government-funded schools. By 1963 at least 64% and 45%
of the eligible boys and girls respectively had been enrolled in primary
schools. This at least compared favorably with other colonies. In con-
trast secondary schools were started in 1938 at Munali with 11 students,
54 years later than primary school. As late as 1952 there were only 405

Africans in secondary schools. This meant about one place in secondary

18

19

school for 350 places in primary school (Sanyal 1976). The reasons for
this sorry state of affairs are complex and debatable. Elliot (1975)
blames the great depression after 1930 for this, but the depression can-
not explain why settler and primary education were not affected, nor
why other colonial countries were not affected similarly. The main
reason seems to be political. First, African education was designed to
be elementary for curbing illiteracy and not for political awareness
(Coombe 1967). Secondly, education was racially segregated. The set-
tlers had the privileges. Koloko (1980) says, 'the colonial government
earmarked £3,893,700 for the education of 10,000 Europeans but only
£86,000 for the 3.5 million Africans in the 1951 ten year development
plan. Settlers opposed African education on the ground of avoiding compe-
tition for jobs, and this was the greatest political obstacle to African
educational advancement (Coombe 1968). The colonial situation gave birth
to two factors important for education in the post-colonial era. The
first was the link between political oppression and educational backward-
ness. The second was that education was seen as a prerequisite for ad-
vancement in employment. It is in this context that education became a
central issue in the 1962 elections and the fight against the federation
of Rhodesia and Nyasaland.

After independence the government of Zambia believed that the pro-
vision of education was the surest way of equitably sharing the fruits
of the struggle and a way of appeasing hitherto politically excluded groups.
Post-colonial educational developments have been impressive. Primary
education has continued to expand with the result that by 1970 almost 90%

of those eligible to attend primary class were at school, an increase of

20

approximately 50% from the 1963 figure. In comparison to other developing
countries, percentage yearly increases in primary and secondary school en-
rollment have been impressively high. Linear expansion of secondary schools
has quadrupled enrollments in less than a decade of independence since 1964.
Expansion at secondary school level has been the most rapid in Africa
(Elliot, J. 1975), but this educational expansion at one level may have
meant more intense competition for access to another level. According to
Stannard (1971) during the 1970-75 period 345,000 primary school leavers
could not obtain places at secondary schools, and there were to be an
additional 142,000 dropouts at other grades (quoted in Elliot, J. 1975).

The university also experienced a rapid development. It was opened
in 1966 with 312 students. By 1970 it had an enrollment of 1,184.
Average annual rate of enrollment increase was about 40%. This slowed to
about 22% in the period 1970-74, making for a 30% annual rate of increase
between 1966 and 1974. A number of teacher and technical training institu-
tions have been opened since independence. Thus, formal education spread
widely after independence and hence made the situation especially suitable

for testing the credential inflation hypothesis.

Aspects of urbanization in Zambia

The ratio of the urban to rural population was relatively high in
colonial Zambia, due primarily to the mining industry. Although at in-
dependence the country with 19% of the population in towns, was recog-
nized as the most urbanized south of the Sahara, the increase of urbanites
was somewhat gradual,mostly because of governmental controls. To be an
urban resident one had to carry an identity card specifying one as such.

Most of the urban residents came to seek gainful employment. Meanwhile

21

income differentials were wide. Urban per-capital income as K291
(K1=$1.25) while for rural areas it was K23 (Simmance 1975, Seers report
1964). This worsened with independence when between 1964-69 urban real
income rose by 50%. The terms of trade worsened against rural areas,
thus the real purchasing power of a unit of marketed peasant output

fell by 20% from 1964 to 1973 (Fry and Maimbo 1973). Rural agriculture
was neglected with the effect of pushing the food import bill higher.

These growing rural-urban inequalities led to unprecedented rural urban

 

 

migration.
TABLE 1
Zambian Urbanization 1963-1974
, Urban Rural Total Percentage
Year Population Population of Population,
Urban
1963 667,000 2,843,000 19 %
1969 1,128,000 2,971,000 27.5%
1971 1,309,000 3,027,000 30.2%
1974 1,700,000 3,030,000 35.3%

 

From Simmance (1975) and Mwanza (1979).

These urbanization figures have the implication of increasing pres-
sure on existing socioeconomic opportunities in urban areas. To gain
access to formal industrial employment and indeed to higher levels of
education requires one to have a competitive edge, and in such a situation
it is our expectation that parents with initial advantages of education,

high occupation, and wealth will be more successful in providing their

22

dependents with this competitive edge.

The case for using cohorisin studying social change

Support for use of cohort analysis in studying social change comes
from both Marxist and non-Marxist writers. In the 'German Ideology' Marx
(1965, p. 57) states, 'history is nothing but the succession of the sepa-
rate generations, each of which exploits the materials, capital funds, the
productive forces handed down to it by all preceding generations, and thus
on the one hand, continues the traditional activity in completely changed
circumstances and on the other, modifies the old circumstances with a
completely changed activity.‘

Three non-Marxist sociologists have argued for use of cohorisin
social change analysis. These are Ryder (1965); Carlsson and Karlsson
(l970),Hagenaars and Cobben (1978). These have argued that the use of
cohortsrests on the observed tendency in social psychology that with in-
creasing age individuals are less likely to change. Carlsson et a1
(1970) report studies showing that 'learning ability' declines with age,
especially with regard to tests of reasoning and nonverbal materials.

They also report studies by Chown (1960) showing that flexibility (inno-
vativeness) to intellectually grasp new behavior lessens with age. As

one gets older, he is more experienced in his work; however, one benefits
increasingly less from knowledge and skills acquired in the training
phases (Hagenaars 1978). Ryder (1965) talks of the 'intersection of
innovative and conservative forces in history' in which every cohort group
has a fresh start with the social heritage it finds.

Cohort refers to 'a set of individuals who pass some crucial stage

or experience a fundamental event like marriage, first job and especially

23

birth at approximately the same time' (Carlsson et a1 1970). A cohort
can be taken to be a bearer of an imprint of given events which it ex-
perienced around a particular age and which left a lasting mark on it
(Hagenaars et al 1978). Our focus is on birth cohorts for age is not
only a 'rubric of consequences of people's actions but also a basis for
allocating roles in society' (Ryder 1965). With regard to employment
and labor force participation specific age cohorts will differ according
to the character of the labor market they meet upon entry. The case is
similar with regard to education. This is important in this study which

focuses on occupational mobility.

On the Formation of the Cohort Groups

We have divided the sample into three (3) cohort categories. The
first category consists of those who were 18 to 29 years of age. These
total 322 respondents and form 36.4% of our male random sample. The middle
cohort category consists of those from 30 to 39 years of age. These total
283 respondents and form 32.0% of our male random sample. The oldest co-
hort consists of those with 40 years of age and beyond. These total 279
respondents and constitute 31.6% of our male random sample.

The cohort categories are not formed in an arbitrary manner, rather
they are deliberately made to reflect the historical character of the
Zambian occupational structure when the respondents in the three categories
entered the labor market. The cohorts are formed so as to reflect rela-
tively homogenous aggregates for the historical character of the labor
force at the time the respondents in the three categories were entering the

labor market. We estimate that respondents in the older cohort entered

24

the labor force in the years prior to 1949, those in the middle cohort

in the years from the early 19505 to the early 19605, and those in the‘
younger cohort entered the paid labor force in the years after 1963/1964.
The labor market for the older cohort was based on state and mining activity.
The labor market of the middle cohort had experienced an added expansion

due to colonial development plans starting around 1948 with pressures from
trade unions and the movement for political independence. The younger co-
hort met labor force conditions affected by political change (independence)
and which are one of rapid expansion based on greater revenues due to
unprecedented demand for copper, favorable tax reforms (especially ex-
propriation of the British South Africa mineral rights) and a more or less
conscious policy to enlarge the wage labor force in order to fulfill pre-
independence political promises. We turn to description of these three his-
torical periods which form the basis for our cohort formation as shown in

Table 14 in Appendix 11.

'Economic growth and the creation of wage employment in Zambia'

For analytical purposes we conceptualize three phases in the economic
growth of Zambia from the period 1920 to 1974 which define the cohorts. The
first one is mostly based on administrative and mining activity. This
started with the prospecting around the 19005 and continued up to the 19305.

We identify the second period of economic growth with the colonial government's
development plans, with their emphasis on some economic diversification.
The third period of economic growth is identified with the post-colonial
government and its relatively more intense efforts at diversification --

especially in the area of manufacturing.

25

First phase of the economy

During this time (1900-1940) whatever economic development took
place was principally in mining. The developments are shown in figures
compiled by Coleman (1969) from government and mining statistical reports.
Copper production itself was well underway by 1908 when about 589 long
tons were realized. This continued with the high mark of 1912 when 1,972
tons were produced. Then there was a drop in production with a bottom of
96 tons in 1918 because of the World War I. Up to 1926 production largely
remained approximately at several hundred tons. From 1927 to the early
19305 the production figure averaged several thousand tons. This changed
with the adoption of large scale mining methods stimulated by high prices
due to rearmament and'new techniques of processing lower grade ore. This
encouraged the opening of several other mines, dramatically enlarging
production. In 1933, 103,516 long tons were produced and this steadily
rose to the figure of 228,254 by 1941. During this period wage employment
closely paralleled mining developments. Thus during the depression many
wage earners were laid off. With the end of the depression, production
picked up absorbing larger quantities of labor and lessening the number of

Zambians employed outside the country as shown in Figure 8.

Second phase of the economy

This period started around 1948 when there was unprecedented demand
for copper and a sharp rise in its production. Production rose from
77.2 long tons in 1947 to 130.6 in 1948 to 220.7 by 1951. The colonial
government realized that substantial profits were being realized by mining
companies. The authorities faced with pressure from the settler community

and rising African expectations and demands, as reflected in trade union

26

and political party movements, was pressed to devote some efforts towards
other areas of the economy. The authorities wrested more revenue from the
mining companies. Whereas in 1947 the companies provided only 27.7% of
government revenues in 1948 they provided about 44.9% of its revenue, and
57.5% by 1952 (Berger, E. 1974, p. 8). According to Berger (1974), the
companies were even a greater source of government revenue than income tax
payments indicate. It is in this context that the first development plan
of 1948 was launched. Its primary aims were to increase food production
and construction (road and housing) activities. According to Sanyal et
a1 (1975) the plan actually used£80.5 million to increase and upgrade
communication networks and housing. Agricultural output increased more
than 10 fold, as did copper production which increased 8 fold, and African
education whose expenditure increased 20 fold.

With regard to manufacturing Thompson (1957) and Baldwin (1966)
note that the colonial development corporation was set up. In its report
this corporation said manufacturing was not feasible till the Europeans
reached 35,000 and the internal African market was enlarged. Despite
this, however, a cement factory, hydroelectric project at Kariba, sawmill
and furniture industry, and beverage and clothing industries were estab-
lished. In 1950 the loans board was set up to help small scale manufac-
turing efforts. Wage employment in construction itself increased from
60,000 to 180,000 (Baldwin 1966). Thus, the colonial plan had an impact
in wage labor creation. It is actually the cause of the rise starting

at the end of the 19405 as shown in Figure B.

27

Third phase of the economy

The next spurt of growth consequential for increase in wage employ-
ment came with political independence. It must be mentioned that the
colonial governments efforts in manufacturing were minimal. The Seers
report (1964) declared that 'for the level of income and population
size, the manufacturing sector of the economy was unusually backward.’
The major reason for this seem to have been the country's economic inte-
gration with Zimbabwe (then Southern Rhodesia) and South Africa --
especially during the Federation of Rhodesia and‘Nyasaland -- in which
Zambia was a market. This could not continue after political independence.
The country had to partially disengage from being a periphery of the south.
This started by seeking alternative sea routes, improvement of communica-
tions, and, most important, local manufacture. After 1964, manufacture
experienced a dramatic growth rate. Whereas it constituted 6.1% of
the G.D.P. in 1964 it was 13.5% in 1972 (Steen 1975). From 1964 to
1974 many enterprises were founded. Among these were shoe, cement, rubber,
explosive, glass, chemical, metallic, oil refining, engineering, and auto
assembly enterprises. Table 2 below provides a picture of the unprecedented

spurt of growth in various sectors of the economy:

TABLE 2

Percentage annual growth rate in real Gross Domestic Product,
Zambia 1965-76

 

 

Sector 1965-70 1970-76 1965-76
Agriculture 7.6 10.1 8.6
Mining -4.8 0.3 -2.0

Manufacturing 11.2 4.8 7.7

28

TABLE 2 (cont'd.)

 

 

Sector 1965-70 1970-76 1965-76
Construction -2.4 4.5 1.4
Transport 2.2 1.1 1.8
Services 9.3 4.5 6.7

 

From Mwanza, J. (1979).

This growth was possible because of the high copper prices on the
world market and the post-colonial regimes plans which were a response to
popular pressure. This spurt of growth explains the sharp rise in wage
employment starting from around 1964 (see Figure 8). According to Mwanza
(1979), between 1969 and 1974 wage employment increased by 12.2%. The
annual increase was 5.1% from 1965-70 and 1.4% from 1970-74. After 1974,
however, there has been a loss of growth in wage employment. Even before
that,the 1.4% growth of 1970-74 could not absorb the people who were
leaving school and therefore looking for jobs.

Our age cohorts are formed from and so as to reflect the three labor
market phases we have described. The oldest cohort consists of workers
who entered the labor market during the first phase, the middle cohort
during the colonial plan phase, while the youngest reflect the post-
colonial labor market as figure 8 indicates. There are problems encountered
in the use of cohorts in analyzing aspects of social change, and we see at
least three shortcomings. First, all three cohorts share the effects of
recent history. It is not possible to segregate out the unique experiences
of each from the specific effects shared by all three cohorts. Second,

there are historically constituted differences of the meaning of such

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29

variables as education. Third, the time (distance) between first and
current job status in path model we are going to use differ for the three
cohort groups and hence are not fully comparable. The older cohort has
longer career time since the first job than the middle and younger cohorts.
This makes it difficult to segregate.out the separate effects of career
stage and age from historical period.

It is important to note that the creation of employment over the
years is important to our hypotheses, because the cost of creating a single
job as measured by the capital-labor ratio has been rising over the years.

This may or may not affect level of skills in occupations.

TABLE 3

The Ratio of Capital to Labor 1965 and 1973
in Constant Kwacha', Zambia
(Amount of Kwacha needed to create one job by occupational sector)

 

 

Sector 1965 1973
Commercial Agriculture K 826.5 K 2,914.0
Mining 9,970.0 10,747.0
Transport 8,955.0 10,454.0
Construction 336.0 783.0
Manufacturing 944.0 3,658.0
Services 6,213.0 8,037.0
Total - K4,54l.O K 6,099.0

 

From Mwanza, J. (1979).

As Table 3 shows, capital-labor ratio rose from around K4,54l.0 to

K6,099.0 from 1965 to 1973. The increase is approximately 35% in real

3O

terms. As Mwanza (1979) maintains, the implication is that it cost 35%
more in resources in creating a single job in 1973 than it did in 1965.
This same cost had been increasing before 1965.

The argument which relates to our hypotheses is that as the resource
outlay for creating a job rises so should the outlay of resources a
given individual dispenses with in order to fill that job. The cost of
job creation increase actually reflects increases in mechanization and
capital intensity. The implication might be that in order to perform the
roles associated with these jobs adequately one requires more education
and skills and that is assuming changes in nature of tasks. In this case
we would expect those with initial advantages to be more successful in
gaining access to these occupations. However, the relationship between
mechanization (or capital intensity) is not a simple linear one. It is ‘
sometimes curvi-linear or much more complex. Thus mechanization may lead
to deskilling like in the case of break up of high skill craft industries
and the creation of low skill wage labor. On the other hand, in some
sectors like in refining the requirements for maintenance may make for a
demand in high skill labor. It is difficult to segregate the effects of

mechanization on skill in our case.

CHAPTER III

Problem Specification and Methodology

 

Our basic question is -i do changing societal and economic states.
of structures imply an increase or decrease in the individuals experience
of mobility. Through use of cohort analysis we want to answer these
questions (which we shall translate into hypotheses): How are the
rates and patterns of mobility among individuals in our cohort samples
being affected by socioeconomic changes? How do changing occupational
and educational systems affect the mobility of individuals?

These questions reflect the argument between those who conceptualize
a process of democratization of access to opportunities and those who per-
ceive a process of crystallization or reproduction of structured inequality.

Robinson (1978) argues mobility in the Third World is easier because
as countries industrialize there is a movement into industrial classes,
it requires lessor resource outlay for individuals to change position and
there is relatively little institutionalization implying less obstacles
to mobility across lines. This assumes an expanding economy,.and since
there are periods of crisis and booms, it is time specific. With
economic expansion structural inequality is lessened. Peil (1965) in-
vestigated Ghanaian students and compared her results to Jahodas (1954)
study. She found that during the decade between the two studies, ethnic:

and social bases of recruitment of students had broadened to a wider range.

31

32

Currie (1975) compared student bodies of secondary schools for the years
1954, 1959, 1964 and 1969 in Uganda. She found a greater democratization
of education access in terms of ethnic” and geographic origin over the
whole period (quoted in Forster 1980). Van den Berghe and Nuttney compared
students at Ibadan University in Nigeria in 1948 and 1968. They found
lessening structural inequalities and greater democratization of access.

The class crystallization argument states that inequalities are re-
produced with social changes. 'The rulers of almost every country have
wished industrialization to augment either their own power or the dominance
of the social class they represent' (Sutcliffe 1971). Bowles and Ginti's
have argued the primary function of education has been to reproduce (i.e.
strengthen) the same division of labor functional to capitalism, i.e.
reinforce inferior positions of the underprivileged and Cicourel and
Kitsuse argue the same position (Weis, 1979).

Weis (1979) tested these propositions using Ghanian data by comparing
students in 1961 and 1974. The 1961 data had been collected by Forster
who found high selectivity differentials. A child of a professional or
clerical worker had 60% and 11% more chances of getting into secondary
school than that of skilled workers or farmers respectively. In 1961 there
were only 14,000 students in 39 public schools, whereas in 1974 there
were 56,800 in 139 schools. Weis used fathers occupation as an indicator
of social backgrounds. She concludes that if recruitment was not fluid
in 1961 it was very much less so in 1974. Whereas in 1961 2% of males
and 7% of females had professional fathers the figure had shot up to over
13% for both in 1974. Whereas 19% males and 25% females came from clerical

families in 1961 these were respectively 5% and 9% in 1974. Weis concludes

33

that the expansion of education implies increased reproduction (i.e.
reinforcement) of social inequality. Chaim Adler (1974) investigated
the influence of educational expansion on ethnic student recruitment
and attainment in Israel and found that the gap in recruitment and
achievements between Jews of oriental, European and American origin
had increased in favor of the latter groups. Olson (1972) found a
similar case for Kenya. Despite educational expansion between 1961 and
1968 the representation of youth from fathers with no schooling in-
creased from 0.4% to 0.5% while those from fathers with elementary educa-
tion slightly fell, thereby indicating no substantively significant
changes. In contrast youth with fathers having some secondary education
experienced marked improvement into access to secondary schools. Van den
Berghe found similar results in 1968 when he compared his to Goldthorpes
1958 data for Makerere students (Uganda). He concludes that there is a
gradual process of elite closure. '

A close look at the democratization and crystallization of access
to opportunities reveals that the differences may be due to the 'historical
specificity' of the writers. Those writing during economic expansion talk
of democratization, whereas those writing during hard times speak of crystal-
lization. What we may have here is a situation reflecting the education
and occupational market at specific points in time. Thus, the indications
are that the nature of the opportunity structure in a society at the
time when one enters the labor force is of major consequence for mobility.
Democratization and crystallization may not necessarily be contradictory
as such but may reflect the influence of the changing socioeconomic struc-
ture on individual mobility. This is the major underlying hypothesis we

seek to test.

34

We now differentiate these questions into a number of specific

hypotheses which will be tested using cohort analysis.

Hypotheses
i. "The greater the supply of educated laborers in a social-
economic system the higher will be the level of education
required for specific occupations in which educational
requirements are variable."

This hypothesis reflects what Bowles (1978) has called 'credential
inflation' caused by educational expansion designed to appease or buy
off real or imaginary opposition groups. In Zambia most of the population
was excluded from education (especially secondary school and higher)
during the colonial era. The struggle for independence was linked to
popular demands for access to social opportunities -- especially jobs and
schools. Education thus was made into a top priority, eventually consuming
over 25% of the national budget. In this context then we would expect the
younger workers to have on average more educational qualifications in any
given occupation than will older workers. This is because the younger
workers entered employment at a time when education became relatively wide-
spread and hence presumably has an inflationary character on the require-
ments for particular occupations.

Concerning this hypothesis it is important to distinguish between
'level of education required for specific occupations' and 'level of
education required by specific occupations.‘ In the former the relation-
ship between educational levels and specific occupations is not a function
of changes in the composition of occupation (i.e. nature of the task).

This is the main meaning of credential inflation as used here. In the

35

latter, changes in the nature of the task i.e. occupations necessitate
changes in the levels of education required to perform it adequately.

Here we can talk of real changes in the requirement of education by specific
occupations, whereas in the former the changes are purely inflationary.

We see four (4) relationships between educational production and occupa-
tional demand: a.) occupational demand is high while educational produc-
tion is also high. There is potentially synchronized change and there-
fore credential value inflation is minimal, and'if increases in education
are proportional to increases in occupational demand, nonexistent. b.)
occupational demand is high while educational production is low. There

is no possibility of credential inflation and any change in the education
required for specific occupations are real reflecting changes in the nature
of the task. c.) occupational demand is low but educational production is
high. In this situation credential inflation is highest and increases in
the education required for specific occupations occur without no changes

in the nature of those occupations. For example, if at one time one needed
a primary school certificate to teach in primary school, at a later date
one has to have a secondary school certificate even though the task of
primary school teaching is essentially the same. d.) both educational
production and occupational demand are low. We shall argue that these -
four scenarios correspond to the Zambian social historical situation.

Low educational production and low occupational demand was characteristic
of very early colonial period (1896-1910). The advent of mining starting
around the 19105 was one in which occupational demands based on mining

rose but also one in which educational production was low. Large scale

mining taking off in the late 19305, after the depression, and the growth

36

of African political and trade union movements saw a rise in both
occupational demands and educational production. From the late 19605
to the present is a period in which there has occurred the so-called
School Leaver problem,i.e. high unemployment levels among the young
women and men leaving secondary school, and hence can be said to be a
period of low occupational demands with relatively high education pro-
duction. .

ii. A second hypothesis is "As the amount of education in society,
and the amount of education required for particular occupations increases,
the amount of intergenerational occupational advantage transfer and the
amount of intragenerational (within career) transfer of advantage also
increases." Transfer of advantage is our focus. Differences in endowment
of social economic attributes at fatherk level may lead to even more
differences at sonb level. We perceive advantage as due to such things
as incomes, locus i.e., rural or urban residence, cultural advantages in
the home, occupational skills and other related attributes.

If expansion of education implies more resource outlay to gain access
to formal/industrial employment,then we would expect parents with initial
advantages, i.e., wealthier, more educated and/or with high occupational
status, to use their greater resources to help their offspring/dependents
to gain better education and employment.

In this case we would expect that current occupation would depend
more on first job and respondents education (i.e. intragenerational
transfer) in the younger population than in the older one. Similarly we
would expect more intergenerational transfers (i.e. more influence of
education and occupation of the father on the respondent's achievements/

status) in the younger cohort than in the middle and older cohorts.

37

This is because when formal education is spreading widely those entering
the labor market have opportunities for mobility likewise affected.

iii. Those who enter the labor market during periods of economic
and occupational system transition experience much more intergenerational
occupational mobility. In this respect we expect older population to
experience more intergenerational occupational mobility. This is because
older population enter the labor market at a time of more or less rapid
transition from agrarian based to industrial based occupations. In con-
trast younger cohorts enter the labor market when the industrial activity/

formal employment based occupational system has been consolidated.

Data and Methodology

The data analyzed here are from a project entitled "Urbanization,
Housing and Employment in Zambian High Density Housing Area" conducted
in 1973 by Professor David Wiley. In all 3,200 households were surveyed.
Within these 3,200 households a random adult sample of 1,663 respondents
was drawn of whom 884 were males and 779 were females. In this analysis
only the random sample of males has been utilized. Path analysis models
were utilized to test structural equations as specified in the Statistical
Package for Social Sciences manual. We have regressed respondent's edu-
cation on father's education and father's occupation, and respondent's
first job on his education and father's occupation and finally respondent's
current job on his first job, education, and father's occupation. We also
used zero-order correlations and cross tabulations. As already noted, we
are mainly dealing with cohort effects, i.e. the fact that birth cohorts
experience different social economic conditions made us examine occupational

and educational attainments of each of the three cohorts separately

38

so that we could compare them, thereby hoping to gauge the separate
effects that the changing character of institutions and historical pro-
cesses entail for occupational mobility. The prestige scale utilized

in path analysis was derived, as shown in Appendix 1, from the Inter-
national Standard Occupational Prestige Scale (Treiman 1977) and the
Zambian Scale (Lay 1975). A large proportion of the 779 females con-
sisted of those not employed outside the home and therefore could not be
included in the path model regression equations. Thus, we have focused

only on the 884 males.

CHAPTER IV
Results and Analysis and Discussion

Characteristics of our 3 City Male Random Sample

How representative of the population is the three city male random
sample used in our analysis? There is no sure way of answering this ques-
tion in the present circumstances. The characteristics of the Zambian
population noted here are derived from the 1969 Population Census (Zambia,
1970). The three city sample survey was carried out in 1973, there-
fore a comparison of the two has the drawback of not taking into account
changes due to migration, politics, administration, etc. between 1969 and
1973. Secondly, our random sample was carried out in urban areas, where-
as the 1969 population census is not broken down in rural or urban
categories. Therefore, a comparison of population characteristics of
1969 census to our 1973, three city sample is strictly an estimation.

On one hand, we find a low correspondence between the distribution
of education in the population as a whole in the country and the educa-

tional distribution in our three city, male random sample:

39

40

TABLE 4

Comparative Distribution of Education of all Employed
Males Not Attending School Zambia, 1969, Compared with Male
Education in the Three City Sample, 1973

 

Education M Middle Ed.

(in years) 1969 1973 1969 1973 1969 1973
Census* Sample

 

 

 

No Schooling (O) 28.6% 9.0% 25.7% 16.2% 61.6% 32.6%
Lower Prim. (1-4) 25.8 9.0 31.5 24.0 24.4 29.3
Upper Prim. (5-8) 31.4 41.6 25.2 44.8 10.5 32.2
Secondary (9-13) 12.1 36.9 3.1 14.8 1.1 2.8
Post Sec. (14 and above) 0.1 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.0
Not Stated 1.7 1.8 0.8 0.0 0.4 0.0
% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
N (total) 299,969 322 225,614 283 ‘ 36,427 279

 

*Census data is from Central Statistical Office Yearbook, 1970 Table 310.

The distribution of education between urban and rural areas of Zambia

 

does differ, therefore an urban sample will not necessarily represent the
distribution of education in the country as a whole, hence, the low
correspondence characterizing the above Table 4.

0n the other hand, as we break our working population into occupational
categories we find a high correspondence between the census population and

our random sample proportions as shown in the table below:

41

TABLE 5

Distribution of Employment Among Zambian Males
in 1969 Census and in 1973, Three City Random Sample

 

Occupational Category 1969 1973
Census* Three City
Random Sample

 

 

Professional/technical 2.9% (1.6%)**‘ 4.8%
Administrative/managerial 1.8 (1.0) 1.1
Clerical 14.8 (8.1) 10.1
Sales 9.4 (5.1) 8.1
Service 21.7 (11.1) 11.5
Production/transport 49.3 (11.8) 48.1
Agricultural/forestry -- (27.0) 2.3
Total N 729,800 884

 

* Census figures from C.S.0. Yearbook, 1969, Table 419.
** Bracketed figure is calculated as percentage of whole labor force
(i.e. not limited to urban working population).

Except for agriculture most of the other occupations are concentrated
in urban areas. When we exclude agriculture we find some proportional
correspondence between the 1969 census and our 1973, three city random
sample. This correspondence is weak or disappears when we include agri-
cultural sector occupations in our calculation of percentage proportions
as shown in bracketed figures in above Table 5. This is especially so
for production and agricultural occupations, because these are the ones

most affected by rural and urban differences. Thus almost all agricultural

42

occupations are in rural areas.
In summary, we can say that our three city male random sample seems
to be quite representative of urban males and not of the whole country.

In other words, we have an urban bias.

Comparing Fathers to Sons

Because of the urban bias we cannot compare percentages of sons in
agriculture with that of fathers in this sample. The two are incomparable
because whereas all our male respondents were or are urban, not all fathers
are. We can make comparisons with regard to the other occupations because
they are urban based, and hence there is a high probability that in this
case the fathers of our respondents were also in urban areas.

Looking at Tables 6 and 7 we find that for professional/technical and
related occupations all the sons had some formal education, while 22.2%
of the fathers did not. But even this 22.2% of the fathers consisted of
traditional healers and preachers who were classified as professionals.
The majority of the fathers in professional/technical occupations (i.e.
44.4% in Table 7) had an upper primary education. The majority of the
sons (i.e. 60.4% in Table 6) in professional/technical occupations had a
secondary school education. The average educational achievement of sons
in professional/technical occupations is secondary school (i.e. above
9 years) in contrast to that of the fathers is upper primary school (i.e.
above 4 years of school). Thus there has been an increase in the mean
level of education from father to son.

This increase in the mean level of education from father to son
is characteristic of all the other occupational categories. Substantial

increases occur in administrative/managerial occupations (i.e. from primary

43

 

 

 

 

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Peace

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agomoueu —o:o.uaa=uuo

 

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s w4m<h

45

to secondary school) and in clerical, sales, service, and production/
transport occupations (i.e. from lower to upper primary school). There is
no substantive increase in the mean level of education from father to

sons in agricultural occupations (i.e. they are all in lower primary
school), but for reasons stated earlier these two are incomparable.

"Com arin Male Cohort Mean Educational Achievements --
flew—Credential Inflation Hypotheses“:

As indicated in Tables 6 and 7 we have divided the system of occupa-
tions into eight (8) categories. These are professional/technical,
administrative/managerial; clerical; sales; service; agricultural/animal
husbandry/forestry; production/transport/equipment operation; and other.
The Zambian educational system can similarly be classified into three
broad groups: primary, secondary, and post secondary. The primary
stage has two phases: lower, consisting of the first four (4) years of
school, and the upper, consisting of the next four (4) years after
lower. Secondary education also has two phases: Junior, consisting of
grades 9, 10, and 11, and Senior, consisting of grades 12 and 13. Univer-
sity education, i.e. post secondary consists of the 14th to 17th years of
school. These years are successive and progressive; therefore, it is
possible to calculate mean years of education reflecting these classifi-
cations.

In Table 8 the older and middle cohort groups in professional/techni-
cal occupations have an average education of junior secondary school (i.e.
9.1, 9.5 years), being in their first year of junior secondary school.

The younger cohort's educational average of 11.2 years represents an
advance over the older and middle cohorts. More education is demanded for

the younger cohorts to enter professional/technical occupations. The

46

difference between mean educations of the three cohort groups is not so
large, although there is a tendency for the younger to average nearer
senior secondary education.

The older cohort group had no members with administrative and mana-
gerial occupations. This may reflect the colonial economy which they
entered when administrative and managerial occupations were reserved on
a racial basis. It may also reflect that our sample is limited to occupa-
tions found in lower and middle class categories of the high density
housing areas. The average number of years of education for the middle
and younger cohorts to enter administrative and managerial occupations, are
11.0 and 11.5 respectively. Both are nearer senior secondary school,
hence, there is no substantive difference.

The case of clerical workers is substantively different. On one
hand the older and middle cohorts average upper primary school i.e. 7.3
and 7.5 years. The average education of the younger cohort in clerical
occupations is junior secondary school (i.e. 10.5 years). This represents
a substantial difference from primary to secondary school. Thus, education
for clerical workers has definitely increased for the younger cohorts.

The average educational levels for sales workers is lower primary
school for the older cohort. The average for sales workers is upper
primary school (i.e. 5-6 and 7-8 years) for the middle and younger cohorts;
however, we note that although both middle and younger sales workers average
upper primary school level the former is in the first year whereas the
latter is in the last year of primary school, hence an increase for the
young.

Among service workers both the older and middle cohorts average

educational level is lower primary, i.e. 3.0 and 4.1 years. The 6.5 mean

7..
4

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pouch :oFuuuzum mo menu» new:

 

o—QEum xJFU cough :_ agomoumu —m:opaoa:ouo x: mugozou
ope: an umcwnuu< covuauscm to msem> com:

m m4m<h

48

years of education (i.e. upper primary school level) of the younger co-
hort in service occupations represents a substantial increase over the edu-
cational requirements for the old and middle cohorts respectively. This
also is the case for the average educational levels for production and
transport occupations. The 6.1 mean years of education of the younger co-
hort in production/transport occupations is considerably higher than the
educational requirements for the older and middle cohorts, i.e. 3.8 and

4.5 -- lower primary level.

There is no substantial difference in the educational requirements
of agricultural occupations for the three cohorts. The average level is
lower primary school (i.e. 3.1, 3.3 and 4.7 years for the older, middle and
younger cohorts respectively). There is a tendency for educational require-
ments among agricultural workers to increase towards upper primary school
for the younger cohort.

I On the average we can say that the more recently a worker has en-
tered the labor force, the more years at school he needs to enter these oc-
cupations. However, we must distinguish between increasing supply of people
with more education leading to recruitment of people with more education and
the raising of the requirements for education of specific jobs due to changes
in the nature of occupations. In Table 8 increases in the number of years
of education in sales, service, production/transport and in agriculture]
forestry occupations reflects general education increase in the Zambian
population. That is so because these increases in education are either
below or not substantially different from the national mean of education.
This also applies to the advancement of education among the unemployed.

The average of 7.7 years of education among the unemployed young represent

an upper primary education like the 6.8 years of education which is the

49

national average of this group. ,However, this increase in the educational
average also reflects the circumstances of increasing unemployment as
evidenced by the fact that the education average of the unemployed middle
and old men is below their national mean.

On the other hand increases of education in professional/technical,
administrative managerial, and clerical occupations is well over and
above the general increase of education in the population as represented
by national mean. In these occupations increases in education might be
needed as a result of changes in their nature. Mining employers forced to
Zambianize have been complaining about the low level of education among
candidates. Increases in the educational levels of professionals and ad-
ministrators may be seen as an effort to have people with the necessary level
of education. A definite statement to this effect would require a case
study to show how jobs are changing and how this might affect educational
requirements.

0n the whole we can assert that our findings tend to confirm the cre-
dential inflation hypothesis, although further investigation is needed to
determine whether increases in education are due to changes in nature of

jobs or due to increases of education in the population.

Behavioral Patternggof Educagional and Occupational Attainments Testing
Intergenerational Privilege Transfer Hypotheses
A note on procedure:

Here we utilize path model analysis with standardized regression
coefficients and zero order Pearsonian correlations to test the effect of
father's education and father's occupation on the occupational and educa-
tional attainments of the son, and to test the effects of son's education

on first and current occupation.

50

Patterns of path model

In the second hypothesis we predicted that as the amount of educa-
tion for occupations increased (i.e. credential inflation) and as the
character of occupational and educational systems change so will intra-
generational and intergenerational transfer of occupational and educa-
tional privileges. In other words, we expect that the direct effects of
status attainment variables on the social economic positions of our
respondents in the path model will be higher for the younger cohort than
for the middle and older cohorts respectively.

Figure C represents a general model (i.e. involving all cohorts) of
path coefficients of influence of father's education and occupation on son's
education and occupation; the influence of male respondent's education on
their first and current job; and the influence of their first job on their
current job.

The general model reveals that the influence of father's education
and the influence of respondent's education are the most significant on
occupational status. Thus the strongest influences on current job are
from the respondent's education (i.e. 32.2% in comparison to 2.9% and 22%
from father's and respondent's first job respectively). Similarly, the
strongest influence on respondent's first job is from their education
(i.e. 36.9% compared to 7.5% from father's occupation). Therefore, we are
able to assert that education is the most effective vehicle for status
achievement and inheritance among the variables included in this model.

In the second hypothesis we predicted that as the amount of educa-
tion for given occupations increased (i.e. credential inflation) and as

the character of the labor market changes (especially the capital

51

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52

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a maze”;

53

composition of jobs rise) 50 will intragenerational and intergenerational
transfer of occupational privileges. In other words, we eXpect that the
direct effects of status attainment variables on the social economic po-
sitions of our respondents in the path model will be higher for the
younger cohort than for the middle and for the older cohorts.

According to our second hypothesis the older cohort should con-
versely experience much more intergenerational occupational mobility. In
other words, we expect the least influence on the status attainment of the
older cohort from father's education and occupation.

We are using the path models to test this hypothesis. We begin by
considering intergenerational status transfers, that is, the effects of
father's education on respondent's education and the effects of father's
occupation on respondent's education, first and current jobs. Then we will
consider the effects of intragenerational status on respondent's occupa-
tional status. We will analyze the effects of respondent's education on re-
spondent's first and current jobs and the effect of respondent's first job

on current job.

A. Intergenerational Status Transfers
The first pattern of causation we identify here is that of the ef-

fect of father's occupation on respondent's current job. The variation in
respondent's current occupation due to the influence of father's occupation
is indeed very small and in the case of the older cohort, negligible; how-
ever, the variation in current job due to influence from father's occupation
was unexpected in that it was less in the younger cohort than in the middle
cohort contrary to the prediction in Hypothesis 2. How do we account for-

this unexpected finding, i.e. the variation due to father's occupation for

54
the younger cohort's current job (4.3%) being smaller than that for the
middle cohort (6.1%). It is attractive to believe that this is due to the
nature of the sample of current occupation for the younger cohort. The
occupational cases declared missing, i.e. belonging to unclassified cate-

gories such as unemployed, student, etc. was high in the younger cohort

(Table 9).

TABLE 9
Percentage of Cases Missing from Path Model

 

Percentage of Cases Missiggfrom Path Model
Cohort CUrrent *First Father's Res. Father's Av

 

Category Job Job Ed. Ed. Job Tota1
01d 11.0% 3.9% 10.0% 1.4% 8.5% 5.9%
Middle 8.4 2.8 0.0 5.5 7.4 4.8

Young 21.0 18.0 10.0 1,§_ 11.0 12.3

Total Sample 90 » 54 45 21 52 55

 

The younger cohort (Table 9) has a comparatively high share of missing
cases from regression models overall and especially with regard to current
job. This could be said to be a distorting effect on the variation in younger
cohort's current job, explained by father's occupation; but the trouble with
this explanation is that missing data in current job does not have a similar
effect on the path from first job. More importantly we believe this might
be due to rapid social change (as represented by political independence)
leading to decreased effects.

The second causal pattern we have established is that of the varia-

tion in respondent's education due to the influence of father's occupation,

55

as shown in Figure 0 is 18.9%, 8.8%, and 27.4% for the older, middle, and
younger cohorts respectively. It was expected according to predictions in
hypothesis 2, that the causal influence of father's occupation on respond-
ent's education should be highest in the younger cohort. It was not ex-
pected, and hence contrary to predictions in the second hypothesis that

the least causal influence on respondent's education by father's occupa-
tion will be in middle cohort and not in the older cohort. The reason for
this apparently is connected to the historical background of the country,
especially the development of the labor force and the occupational system.
At the time the older cohort was in school or entering the labor market,
education and its associated colonial bureaucracies were derived mainly from
missionary activity and, in the main, considered alien. It was those with
occupations associated to missionary activity and public bureaucracies who
sent their dependents to school. This was so because early British colonial
policy aimed at having a set of functionaries to help carry out low, semi-
1iterate jobs in the bureaucracy. In time, these lower functionaries even
came to link education to monetary rewards. In contrast, the middle cohort
was in school, i.e. from the late 19405, when there was more urban growth
and large scale mining methods towards the close of the 19305. It was dur-
ing this time that political demands for more benefits to the indigenous
people began. The colonial development plans and the increase in primary
education (discussed in Chapter II) should be seen in this context. Colonial
authorities instituted some compulsion for lower levels of education. For
instance, an individual was liable for punishment if he kept a primary
school age child out of school in the early years of the Federation. Thus,
the number of children at primary school was raised to over 50% of those

in the age bracket, a large raise in the colonial situation; therefore, for

56

the middle cohort the variation in respondent's education will depend less
on the father's occupation because education is widespread, throughout all
occupations. On the other hand, the younger cohort attended school when it
was clearly linked to social rewards through the daily altercations of po-
litical debate on justice and equality (especially in the 1962 elections).
Education was linked to social rewards (i.e. mainly in the form of prestige
and high salaries) when the older and middle cohort were at school. But
the possibilities of realizing this link was limited because of the racial
segregation of occupations and colonial policies which discouraged Africans
from aspiring to higher education by denying them facilities and high pay-
ing jobs. For the younger cohorts, father's occupation becomes important
in realizing high educational levels, because after independence there is
higher competition for school positions. This competition increases with
levels of education such that those with greater resource possessions (high-
er occupation) are better able to have their children in school and not
working at home.

It does not follow that if the father is more educated the son also
is more educated. Our third pattern of intergenerational occupational
transfer shows that the variation in respondent's education due to the
influence of father's education is 19.4% 28.9%, and 12.8% for the respec-
tive older, middle and younger cohorts. Clearly enough then, the respond-
ent's education is for the younger cohorts less dependent on father's edu-
cation. We believe this reflects the massive increase in educational levels
after independence. Thus, as we saw earlier post-colonial increases in
primary education was such that by 1970, almost 90% of those eligible to
attend primary classes were at school, a considerable increase from the

1963 figure of approximately 50%. Expansion of primary and secondary

57

schools in Zambia has been the most rapid in post-colonial Africa (Elliot,

J. 1975).

At the same time unemployment had been increasing, such that it

did not necessarily follow that once a person had high education he could

have a high prestige job.

In this situation in which the young cohort

finds itself the effect of father's education, unless they have a high job,

will not greatly affect variation in the respondent's education.

The fourth and last pattern of intergenerational transfer is the

effect of father's occupation on respondent's first job.

As expected

according to prediction from hypothesis 2 this variation was greater

for the younger cohort than for the middle and older cohorts (i.e.

6.1%, 5.0%. 1.3%).

In this case we can say that father's occupation is

increasingly a mechanism for the transfer of perlleQG t0 f1'5t 30b:

TABLE 10

Summary of Results Pertaining to

Intergenerational Transfer of Privilege

 

Causal patterns
of intergenera-
tional transfer

Hypothesis 2
(Prediction: more *(Prediction: less
privilege transfer privilege transfer
in young cohort) in old cohort)

 

Variation in
dependent vari-
able due to inde-

 

 

pendent variable Confirmed Confirmed
Effect of fa- Older cohort =
ther's occu- 0.2%
pation on sons Middle cohort =- No Yes
current job 6.1

Younger cohort =

4.3
Effect of fa- Older cohort =
ther's occupa- 18.9%
tion on son's Middle cohort = .
education 8.8 Yes No

Younger cohort =
27.4

 

TABLE 10 (Cont'd)

Effect of father's

58

Older cohort =

 

education on son's 19.4%

education Middle cohort = No No
28.9
Younger cohort =
12.8

Effect of father's Older cohort =

occupation on son's 1.3%

first job Middle cohort = Yes Yes
5.0
Younger cohort =
6.1

 

As the above Table 10 summary of results of the effect of father's

social economic position on son's career indicates, we have obtained mixed

results. The prediction in Hypothesis 2, namely that father's social

economic position will have greater effect on the career of the younger

cohort has been confirmed in two paths and not in two others.

We have

explained this nonconfirmation in the two other paths as possibly due to

historical conditions which uniquely applied to the young cohort as they

were in school and/or entering the labor force and by the nature of the

sample. Again Hypothesis 2 we predicted that father's socioeconomic position

will have the least causal effect on the achievements of the older cohort

because they entered the labor force at the time of rapid transition from

agrarian to industrial occupations.

firmed in two paths and not in two others.

Again, this prediction has been con-

In other words, our data

offers limited support to the hypothesis that as amount of formal educa-

tion spreads in a given society so will the effect of father's occupation

and education on son's achievements.

The nature of the data we are using

59

does not allow us to clearly distinguish between the confounding effects
of career stage from historical period in which cohort entered labor

force.

8. Intragenerational (within career) Status Achievements

The first causal pattern we identify here is that of the variation
in respondent's current job (1973) due to the influence of the respondent's
education. The variation in the respondent's current job due to the
influence of respondent's education is 22.0%, 43.7% and 24.0% for the
respective older, middle and younger cohorts. According to our predic-
tions in Hypothesis 2, we are supposed to have greater variance explained
in the younger than in the middle cohort. We expect the younger cohort to
increase the level of association also as an artifact of method in which
the time distance between education and current job is for them shortest;
however, this was not so. This unexpected result is due to the fact that
the younger cohort is experiencing a situation of increased education
which is having an inflationary effect on occupations (as seen in creden-
tial inflation hypothesis). Moreover, their social situation is one of
political dislocation, i.e. changes from colonial to post-colonial society
which serve as channels of mobility to positions of authority or to po-
sitions reflecting contribution to political struggle regardless of edu-
cation. In other words, for the younger cohort entering the labor market
after 1964, the year of self-government, education is not enough to at-
tain high prestige occupations other, mainly political, considerations
came in.

The second causal pattern we were able to establish here is that of

the effect of respondent's first job on respondent's current job. The

60

variation in respondent's current job due to influence of the respondent's
first job is 10.6%, 12.0%, and 29.8% for the respective older, middle and
younger cohort groups. The result confirmed our prediction in Hypothesis 2
that the younger c0hort will have the most variation in current job due

to first job. In other words, the quality of first job increasingly
affects one's advancement in his occupational career. People with high
prestige first occupations may increasingly more likely advance in their
occupational careers.

The third causal pattern we have derived is that of the effect of
respondent's education on respondent's first job. The variation in first
job due to influence of the respondent's education is 19.8%, 43.2%, and
50.7% for the older, middle, and younger cohort groups. Here the result
confirmed our prediction in Hypothesis 2, that the younger generation will
experience much more mobility within career depending on their education.

In summary, concerning intragenerational occupatibnal mobility of
our respondents the results show two paths confirming that it is increas-
ingly dependent on quality of first job and, more importantly, on one's
education. One path did not confirm this. On the whole, we can assert
that advancement within careers depends on the quality of first job and
more on education obtained by people.

With regard to Figure 0 we have noted the problem of how to separate
career stage from historical period in which a cohort entered the labor force
remains unresolved because of the nature of our data. However, the separate
career stage of the three cohorts may provide an alternative explanation for
the high standardized regression coefficients of the middle cohort in three
paths. Blau and Duncan (1967, p. 187) established that 'factors salient at

an early stage of man's career may continue to play a direct role as he grows

61

older.‘ But the direct effects of education and father's status are attenu-
ated directly with the passage of time. A compensatory effect is the in-
creasing relevance of the accumulation of occupational experiences as time
passes. The implication relevant to Figure 9 is that the younger cohort has
lower regression coefficients than middle cohort in some paths as shown in
summary Table 7 because they had had less time to advance beyond father's
occupation, or perhaps, to have influence of father's occupation take effect.
The older cohort may be at a stage where father's background may not be ex-
ercising that much influence, i.e. they depend more on their own career,
whereas for the middle cohort, father's careers influence may be at its peak.

In Figure 0 the residuals, i.e. variance unexplained in the equation
are rather high. For the older cohort unexplained variance range from .895
to .978; from .749 to .904 for the middle cohort; and from .641 to .877 for
the younger cohort. The interesting point to note is that though the re-
siduals are high, they become smaller as we move from the older to the mid-
dle and younger cohorts. The basic point is that with the consolidation of
the social structure i.e. patterns of association, stratification, work,
etc. originating with the imposition of colonialism; mobility becomes more
predictable according to the set of variables included in this model. Re-
searchers in Zambia have found that the variance not explained in regression
equations is generally high (Wiley 1971, 1979).

In Hypothesis 3 we predicted that the older cohort should experience
more mobility than the other cohorts because they are entering the labor
market during a period of economic and occupational transition i.e. from
subsistence agriculture to one of dependent industrial development, and the
occupational systems they engender. We test this hypothesis using a mobility
table i.e. Table 11. In this table respondents are concentrated in four

occupational categories i.e. professional/technical; service, production/

61a

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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62

transport/equipment operation and agricultural/animal husbandry and forestry
occupations. The whole mobility table shows that there is high mobility
between occupations. Most of the children of fathers with professional/
technical occupations end up in production and transport occupations (i.e.
52.6%, 84.6%, and 42.9% for the older, middle and younger cohorts respect-
ively). Similarly most respondents with service occupation fathers end up
with production transport occupations (i.e. 50%, 58%, and 45% for the
older, middle and younger cohorts respectively). Still, again most respon-
dents with fathers in agricultural occupations end up in production and
transport occupations (57%, 56%, and 43%). In all these mobility patterns
there is no substantial differences between the three cohorts. This may
be because though the older cohort experienced the transition from
agriculture and subsistence based occupations to those which are greatly
influenced by industrial activity the other cohort i.e. the middle and younger
one have been in a period of rapid social change which also makes it possible
for them to move to other occupational categories.

However, there is an interesting pattern with regard to self-
recruitment within production/transport/equipment operation occupations.
There is high self-recruitment within production/transport] and equipment
operation occupations. The highest self-recruitment is with the middle
cohort, (55.9%, 76.2% and,52.1% for the older, middle, and younger cohorts
respectively). This again may be related to the confounding effects of
career stage and historical period which cannot be segregated out in our
data. The youngest cohort showing lower self-recruitment may be due to
the possibility that they are not yet at level of occupations which social
background will eventually "produce." On the other hand, oldest cohort

may be more influenced by prior occupational experience than by background.

63

Self-recruitment in other occupational categories is low across cohorts.

 

Mobilit Within and Between Generation
BEEEEV6%_Zero Order Correlations

Below in Table 12, we see the zero order correlations of the various
variables in the path diagrams of Figures C and 0.

Table 8 reflects effects corresponding to the standardized regression
coefficients discussed in Figure C except for some of the cases dealing with
respondent's current occupation.

Concerning intergenerational transfers, we have similar patterns
of association in the following: the relationship between father's educa-
tion and respondent's education (i.e. .261, .308, and .273 correlations
for the respeCtive older, middle and younger cohorts); the relationship
between father's occupation and respondent's education (i.e., .213, .152,
and .301 correlation for older, middle and younger cohorts); and the relation-
ship between father's occupation and respondent's first job (i.e. .013, .050,
and .061 correlation for the respective older, middle and younger cohorts).
One pattern of association of intergenerational transfer did not correspond
to the pattern established in path model. The relationship between father's
occupation and-respondent's current occupation showed the younger cohort
having the highest association between the two variables (i.e. .003, .165,
and .234 correlation).

For within generation status achievement, we also obtained similar
patterns of association between variables except one involving current
occupation. Thus, the association between respondent's education and
respondent's first job shows a pattern corresponding to that in path model

(i.e. .193, .473, and .527 correlation for the respective cohorts).

64

 

 

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65

Similarly, this correspondence occurs in the correlation between first
job and current job (i.e. .221, .321, and .515). The associations in
both path model and for zero order correlation show a progressive trend
from older to middle and younger cohorts. Unlike the path model, the
relationship between respondent's education and respondent's current job
shows a correlation (i.e. .242, .481 and .543 for the older, middle,

and younger cohorts) which is progressive and higher.

The correlations then establish stronger and much more progressive
association (i.e. greater in the younger age cohort) between variables
indicating father's socioeconomic position and son's achievements (i.e.
intergenerational transfers) and between variables indicating achievements
within individual's career (i.e. intragenerational mobility). Zero-order
correlations, then, confirm all the intergenerational predictions we
made in Hypothesis 2. But correlations indicate only the strengths of
association and do not indicate causal relations between variables. They

are included only to assure completeness.

Discussion and Conclusion

The credential inflation hypothesis that as the amount of formal
education increases in a given society the educational requirement for jobs
is inflated has been tested. This was confirmed by these data. Substantial
increases in the educational levels of younger Zambians who are in clerical,
sales, services, pr0duction/transport occupations. We found statistical
increases in the educational levels of the younger cohort over those
of the middle and older cohorts in all the other occupational categories.
I The implication here is that as formal education increases it ceases to play

the decisive role in one's occupation. That is, education is a necessary but

66

increasingly not a sufficient condition for entry to higher level occupa-
tions. This in part is evidenced by the pattern of causation found be-
tween respondent's education and his current job. Whereas the associa-
tion (i.e. zero order correlation) is highest for the younger cohort the
causal connection is not so strong. The effect of respondent's education
on current occupation is higher for the middle than for the younger
cohort. In the longer run this might affect patterns of access to
education. When formal education is limited it was in the interest of
the state to increase investments in the education of individuals. As
education spreads.the cost burden of educating individuals may have come to
rest more on families. One implication is that families weigh costs and
benefits of sending their members to school (Forster 1980). Escalated
qualifications for jobs may lead to frustrated expectations (Bowles

1978). For those with limited resources the cost might be too high hence.
educational achievements may closely parallel social/class positions as
emerging patterns of stratification consolidate.

We obtained mixed, hence quite inconclusive results regarding
intergenerational mobility. It seems, on the one hand, father's occupa-
tion was increasingly consequential for the education and occupational
achievements of sons. On the other hand, father's education did not
seem to have an increasing effect on the educational achievements of
sons. Further investigations are needed on the relationship of occupation
to education as they influence education of offspring. The correlations
between father's occupation and education are not high. This is in direct
contrast to the correlations between son's education and occupation, which
were high. This could signal that, over time, education and occupation

are becoming more closely associated, but this association is affected by

67

structural changes in the economy and changes in politics of the country.
Thus, whether there is a democratic access to opportunities or whether
class-crystallization affects opportunities.hence achievements, may

be influenced by changes in the economy and political organization. These
changes provide limits to individual efforts at achieving a higher status.
Economic changes and political changes may be affecting mobility and the
use of education and social background in mobility in different ways with
the result that there is no clear overall pattern established. What we may
be observing is a situation of mobility affected by contradictory patterns
of ascription of skill and education (Technocrats/Bureaucrats) to position
of power, on the one hand, and political ascriptions to positions of in-
fluence, on the other hand. The interests associated with bureaucracy
(technocrats) and its growth push for advancement on the basis of education
and skill. The interests associated with political changes push for
advancement on the basis of participation in politics and political
struggles. The interests associated with technocrats and bureaucrats

know their positions can be assured if and when some 'meritocratic' prin-
ciples such as education become the main vehicle for recruitment. But
these principles would not necessarily benefit other interests, which there-
fore would be interested in qualifying them and which may see education

as just a justification for gaining access to positions of advantage. What
we are talking about is illustrated in arguments over the issue of Zambiani-
zation of manpower (i.e. localization of manpower by replacing expatriate
staff). Many in civil servants (bureaucrats and technocrats) argue that
there should be 'authentic localization' (Koloko 1980) i.e. localization

done on merit as in the case of a qualified expatriate being replaced

68

by a similarly qualified citizen. 0n the other hand, the e are political
interests arguing that this is just another way of mainta ning or per-
petuating the colonial situation. They argue that expat: ates exercise
much power so as to discourage competition or threats to heir job secur-
ity, hence block up-and-coming nationals in the name of ‘ ck of sufficient

qualifications.

APPENDICES

Appendix I

On Prestige Scales of Occupations

At the time of data coding, the occupations were classified accord-
ing to the International Standard Classification Code (1500) of the In-
ternational Labor Organization (ILO). In this project we have been faced
with the problem of translating occupations into prestige scores. We had
two alternatives: first, we could use the Standard International Occupa-
tional Prestige Scale (SIOPS) as reported in Treiman (1977). The problem
is that the SIOPS differ from those developed by various other analysts
for Zambia; secondly, the Zambian scores incorporated by SIOP scales
(Treiman 1977) taken from research of 1959 by Mitchell and Epstein and
thus may be out of date. The second alternative was to use the prestige
scales derived in Zambia. There are three such scales: the first was de-
rived by Mitchell and Epstein (1959), the second by Hicks (1967) and the
third by Lay (1973). Lay's research developed prestige scores for occupa-
tions in 1973, the year of the sample of this study, which are more recent
than those of 1959 and 1967 and hence are more preferable. The problem is
that the number of Zambian occupations ranked were limited to about 100 oc-
cupations while there are over 250 occupations in our sample.

Treiman (1977) carried out comparisons of hierarchies of occupations
in about 60 societies derived from popular evaluations, as reported in
surveys. The surveys themselves had been carried out by many and diverse
researchers and therefore differ in terms of procedures. Treiman used

secondary data which utilized both medians and means. His concern was with

69

70

the establishment of similarities in hierarchies of prestige at a global
level; how differences in prestige evaluations relate to social cultural
differences, and how much these differences are due to differing levels

of industrialization etc. Treiman argues that his major finding is that
averages of occupational hierarchies are essentially similar in all com-
plex societies, hence there exists the possibility of a standard measure
of occupational status.

We have opted for a method which seeks to base all prestige scores
on the basic Zambian structure of occupational prestige as derived by Lay
(1973) but then to utilize SIOP scale (Treiman 1977) to estimate the per-
centage scores for occupations Lay did not rank. We classified the vari-
ous occupations into a hierarchy of eight occupational categories. We then
calculated an average deviation from the SIOP scale. For example, as
shown in Table 10 for professional, technical, and related occupations the
Mean Deviation has been arrived at from the deviation of the Zambian rat-
ings (Lays 1973) to SIOP scales (Treiman 1977). The mean deviation is 9.0.
This means that for occupations in this category like Artist which has an
SIOP score of 57, nine will be added to make for a score of 66. Robert Lay
(1973) used 70 occupational titles chosen randomly from the 1969 Zambian
census figures. He computed the average rating of titles by asking re-
spondents to rate each occupation in two ways. On a scale ranging from
zero (0) to ten (10). One way involved respondents perceptions of where
a given occupation would be given a continuum ranging from 0 - 10. The
other way involved evaluations of where a given job deserved to be on the
continuum of 0 - 10. All the respondents in this study were males. Lay

(1973) derived both means and medians.

71

The data derived by Lay (1973) are similar and comparable to
the international scale by Treiman on the grounds that they reflect
fundamentally similar Division of Labour and the complexity it engenders.

Traditionally, the question might be raised as to whether the shift
from rural to urban occupations reflects a shift from.one status system
to another. That is, do traditional occupations,such as herbalists,
headmen, chiefs, belong to a different status system from those occupa-
tions which have been introduced since the advent of Colonial rule.
Theoretically this might be so, but research suggests that the existence
of traditional and modern occupations in one social, political, and econ-
omic system has led to a situation whereby they are heavily interpenetrated,
hence not defined in mutually exclusive terms. Lay (1973) found that in
Zambia ratings of traditional occupations are very similar among George
compound (urban) residents and Sonati (rural) residents (See following

Table 13).

72

Table 13: Deviations in Prestige Rankings of Occupations of Males in

Lusaka Zambia* and Combined S.I.O.P.S. Inventory**.

 

A. Deriving Scores for Estimating Prestige Ratings

 

 

 

 

Zambian SIOPS ISCO***
Rating Rating Deviation Code
(Zambian Minus
SIOPS)
1. Professional, Technical
and Related Workers
Doctor 87.7 78 +9.7 06105
Nurse 63.3 54 +9.3 07110
Midwife 50.0 46 +6.0 07310
African Doctor 40.3 29 +11.3 07960
Sec. School Teacher 77.0 64 +13.0 13290
Prim. School Teacher 63.5 57 +6.5 13320
Mean Deviation I 9 I
2. Administrative and
ManagerialWorkers
Manager 78.1 15.1 15.1 21940
Govt. Minister 73.7 -5.3 -5.3 20110
Chief 67.2 -0.8 -O.8 20270
Village Head 48.3 +6.3 +6.3 20271
Sub Chief 48.6 -1.4 -1.4 20270
Mean Deviation I 3 I
3. Clerical Workers
Office Clerk 62.8 43 19 8 39310
Typist 56.8 42 14.8 32149
Compound Chairman 42.6 44 -l.4 20120
Mean Deviation I11 I
4. Sales Workers
Small Shop Owner 55.8 38 17.8 41030
Travel Salesman 47.7 47.0 0.7 45130
Petrol Attendant 36.8 25 11.8 59980
Shop Keeper 36.4 42 -5.6 41030
Hawker 36.1 22 14.1 45220
Marketeer 30.1 36 -5.9
Mean Deviation 5 I

 

 

 

 

* Sample taken from George Compound, Lusaka July-August, 1973 by Robert Lay.
** Scale from Treiman 0 (1977) Occupational Prestige in Comparative Per-
- spective.

*** International Standard Classification of Occupations (ILO, 1969).

73

Table 13: Continued.

 

Zambian SIOPS ISCO
Rating, Rating_ Deviation Code

5. Production and

Related Workers,
‘Iransport Equipment
Operators and Laborers

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Construction Captain 47.1 39.0 8.1 70075
Surface Miner 54.2 32.0 22.2 71105
Underground Miner 67.9 36.0 31.9 71105
Wood Cutter 14.5 31.0 -16.5 63270
Charcoal Burner 32.8 16.0 16.8 63260
Tailor 36.5 40.0 -3.5 79510
Village Blacksmith 34.4 34.0 0.4 02622
Auto Mechanic 44.8 43.0 1.8 84320
Spanner Boy 26.3 31.0 -4.7 84322
Machine Assembler 55.3 30.0 25.3 83419
Mine Electrician 63.8 44.0 19.8 85510
Council Electrician 53.0 44.0 9.0 85510
Pipe Layer 29.7 34.0 -4.3 95950
Plumber 29.8 34.0 -4.2 87105
Welder 38.5 39.0 -O.5 87210
House Painter 27.7 31.0 -3.3 93120
Basket Maker 25.2 21.0 4.2 94220
Carpenter 43.4 34.0 6.4 95410
Mud Brick Maker 29.6 15.0 14.6 95975
Builder 42.7 36.0 6.7 95910
Road Grade Operator 34.5 32.0 2.5 97445
Pirate Taxi Driver 35.3 28.0 7.3 98520
Lorry Driver 34.4 33.0 1.4 98560
Lorry Boy 17.1 15.0 2.1 99910
Road Laborer 19.3 19.0 0.3 99930
Casual Laborer 13.7 20.0 -6.3 99970
Mean Deviation 5
. Service Workers
Policeman 61.3 40.0 +21.3 58220
Bartender 28.9 23.0 +5.9 53250
House Servant 13.0 17.0 -4.0 54020
Government Janitor 38.9 21.0 +17.9 55130
Large Store Janitor 37.0 21.0 +16.0 55130
Barber 28.9 30.0 -1.1 57030
Security Guard 28.5 22.0 +6.5 58940
Mean Deviation 9

74

 

 

 

 

 

 

Table 13: Continued.
Zambian SIOPS ISCO
Rating Rating. Deviation Code
7. Agriculture and Animal
Husbandry, Forestrygand
Fishing,Hunting
Large cash farmer 89.5 63.0 +26.5 6110
Small cash farmer 61.9 38.0 +23.9 6110
Agriculture demonstv. 53.6 41.0 +12.6 13557
Chicken Farmer 43.3 55.0 -1l.7 61260
Farm Laborer 16.3 23.0 -6.7 62105
Private Beer Brewer 23.3 21.0 +2.3 51062
Subsistence Farmer 27.1 30.0 -2.9 61281
Herder 45.0 26.0 +19.0 62410
Butcher 34.7 26.0 +8.7 62410
Village Butcher 33.8 26.0 +7.8 62410
Thatcher 19.8 19.0 +0.8 95360
Private Gardener 9.1 21.0 -11.9 .62960
City Gardener 25.1 21.0 +4.2 62960
Subsistence Fisherman 27.1 28.0 -O.9 64970
Fish Trader 41.1 28.0 +13.1 45220
Commercial Fisherman 44.3 37.0 +7.3 64130
Subsistence Hunter 25.7 6.0 +19.7 64960
Mean Deviation 7

8. Occupational Prestige Scores From Lay Study and Derived Herein

l. Professional/Technical and Related Workers

 

 

Zambian or Zambian or
Estimated Estimated
Occupational Title SIOPS* Score Occupational Title SIOPS Score
Airline Pilot 64.0 75.0 Pharmacist-Asst 50.0 59.0
Science Technician 51.0 60.0 Nurse - 63.0
Engineer- Choreographer 53.0 62.0
Unspecified 54.0 63.0 Optician-Trainee 44.0 53.0
Engineer-Asst. 43.0 52.0 Herbalist (Ngansa) - 40.0
Metal Worker 25.0 34.0 Accountant 62.0 71.0
Surveyor 58.0 67.0 Professional
Oraughtsman 55.0 64.0 Accountant 62.0 71.0
Technical officer 58.0 57.0 Accountant-Asst. 47.0 56.0
Technical Asst. 45.0 54.0 Teacher-Commerce - 77.0
Sr. Medical Asst. 50.0 59.0 Teacher-Secondary
Doctor-General - 88.0 Arts - 77.0
Surgery-Asst. 50.0 59.0 Teacher-Secondary
Medical Asst. 50.0 59.0 Geography - 77.0
Veterinarian-Asst. 53.0 62.0 Teacher-Secondary
Sciences - 77.0

* Dashes indicate we used Lay's (1973) score not SIOPS.

75

l. Professional/Technical and Related Workers -- Continu 1

 

 

 

Zambian or Zambian or
Estimated Estimated
Occupational Title SIOPS Score Occupational Title §I_{§_ Score
Tezgggr-Primary _ 64.0 Pastor 54 1 63.0
Teacher-Primary Missionary 49 I 58.0
. Regular Superior 48 ) 57.0
Sc1ences 8 63.0 A .
rtlst 57 1 66.0
Tefififlggr‘arten _ 50 0 Musician 45 1 54.0
9 ' Radio Broadcaster 43 1 52.0
Teaiggioh School - 64 O Archivist 45 3 54'0
Teacher _ ' Personnel Manager 46 1 55.0
Unspecified _ 64 0 Personnel Officer 46 J 55.0
' Interpreter -
Teacher -
Special Education - 64.0 Professional 49 3 58°C
Teacher -
Other Education - 64.0
School Principal -
Asst. - 64.0
School Manager -
Asst. - 66.0
2. Administrative and Managerial Occupations
Legislative Chief Retainer 51 3 54.0
Official 57.0 60.0 Town Clerk 73 O 74.0
Political Party Managing Director 78.0
Worker 56.0 59.0 Govt. Under-
Exec. Civil Secretary 73 O 74.0
Servant 71.0 74.0 Transport Mgr. 6C 0 63.0
Asst. District
Secretary 63.0 66.0
Chief - 56.0
Headman 48.0
3. Clerical Occupations
Clerical Officer 55.0 66.0 Tele Typist 57.0
Jr. Clerical Bookkeeper 4S 0 60.0
Officer 44.0 55.0 Bookkeeping
Administrative Clerk 37 O 48.0
Asst. 52.0 63.0 Cashier 4S 0 60.0
Stenographer 42.0 53.0 Pay Master 4S 0 60.0
Stenographic Banker 4i 0 59.0
Secretary 47.0 58.0 Wages Clerk 31 O 42.0'
Court Clerk 51.0 62.0 Bus Supervisor 2 0 53.0
Typist - 57.0 Bookkeeper -
Proof Reader 4: O 54.0

 

76

3. Clerical Occupations -- Continued

 

 

Zambian or Zambian or
Estimated Estimated
Occupational Title SIOPS Score Occupational Title SIOPS Score
Bookkeeper-Cashier 44.0 55.0 Telegraphic Sec. 45.0 56.0
Bus Inspector 41.0 52.0 Dispatch Clerk 29.0 40.0
Post Officer - Stores Clerk 32.0 43.0
Supervisor 55.0 66.0 Storeroom Clerk 32.0 43.0
Communication Store Clerk-Other 32.0 43.0
Supervisor 53.0 64.0 General Clerk 33.0 44.0
Rail Train-Guard 23.0 34.0 Reporting Clerk 33.0 44.0
Bus Conductor 31.0 42.0 Correspondence
Postal Clerk 39.0 50.0 Clerk 33.0 44.0
Postman 33.0 44.0 Insurance Clerk 34.0 45.0
Mail Runner 26.0 37.0 Meter Reader 22.0 33.0
Mail Distribution Receptionist 38.0 49.0
Clerk 33.0 44.0 Registry Clerk 31.0 42.0
Telephone Operator 38.0 49.0 Clerk-Other 31.0 42.0
Unclassified Clerk 33.0 44.0
4. Sales Occupations
Retail Manager 53.0 58.0 Retail Seller 40.0 45.0
Beer Hall Manager 36.0 41.0 Salesman - General 52.0 57.0
Work Proprietor 47.0 52.0 Hawker - 36.0
Retail Supervisor 52.0 57.0 Canvasser 36.0
Salesman- _ Marketeer - 30.0
Door-to-door 46.0 51.0 Tea Seller 25.0 30.0
Sales Representa-
tive - 57.0
5. Service Occupations
Restaurant-Hotel Nanny/Babysitter 23.0 32.0
Manager 53.0 62.0 Janitor - 39.0
Bar Manager 32.0 41.0 Street Sweeper 16.0 25.0
Business - Cafe 34.0 43.0 Garbage man 16.0 25.0
Businessman-General 34.0 43.0 Hospital Cleaner 16.0 25.0
Shabeen Operator 34.0 43.0 Launderer-General 22.0 31.0
Kitchen Supervisor 38.0 47.0 Dry Cleaner 30.0 39.0
Commercial Cook 31.0 40.0 Fireman 35.0 44.0
Cook-Unspecified 23.0 32.0 Fire Guard 35.0 44.0
Cook-Private House 23.0 ‘ 32.0 Police Officer - 61.0
Waiter/Waitress 12.0 32.0 Policeman GRZ - 49.0
Bus Boy 21.0 30.0 Police guard-private - 31.0
Barman - 29.0 Mine Police 40.0 49.0
Barmaid - 29.0 Protective Worker 33.0 42.0
Domestic Servant - 13.0 Security Guard 21.0 31.0
House Boy - 13.0 Grease Boy 20.0 29.0
Cadymaster 16.0 25.0

 

 

77

6. Agricultural/Animal Husbandry and Forestry Occupations

 

 

 

Zambian or Zambian or
Estimated Estimated
Occupational Title SIOPS Score Occupational Title SIOPS Score
Agriculture Gardener - 25.0
Supervisor 41.0 48.0 General Livestock
Farm Captain 41.0 48.0 Worker - 33.0
Famer - General 44.0 54.0 Beef Cattle Farm
Commercial Farmer 64.0 71.0 Worker - 45.0
Crop Farmer 21.0 28.0 Nursery Worker 18.0 25.0
Rice Farmer 21.0 28.0 Garden Worker 18.0 25.0
Commercial Poultry Groundsman 18.0 25.0
Farmer 44.0 Forestry Ranger 41 O 48.0
Subsistence Farmer - 27.0 Charcoal Burner 26.0 33.0
G/nuts Farmer 21.0 28.0 Wood Cutter/Worker - 15.0
Millet Farmer 22.0 29.0 Fisherman - 27.0
Potato Farmer 20.0 27.0 Fisherman Helper - 25.0
Tobacco Planter 20.0 27.0 Trapper/Hunter - 26.0
General Farm Worker - 25.0
Farm Worker - Other 18.0 25.0
7. Production/Transport/Eguipment Operation Occupations
Boss Boy 39.0 44.0 Butcher boy/
Group Boss - Salesman 29.0 34.0
Underground 52.0 57.0 Baker 35.0 40.0
Supervisor - Brewer 18.0 23.0
Chemical Synthesis43.0 48.0 Tobacco Grader 34.0 39.0
Goods/Beverages Sewing 28.0 33.0
Processor 34.0 39.0 Shoe Repairer 28.0 33.0
Captain - Turner 37.0 42.0
Construction - 47.0 Blacksmith -
Captain - P.W.D. 42.0 47.0 General 29.0 34.0
Supervisor - Machine Operator 38.0 43.0
Unspecified 42.0 47.0 Machine Boy 38.0 33.0
Miner - 54.0 Factory Worker 29.0 34.0
Diamond driller 62.0 67.0 Mine Machine Fitter 43.0 48.0
Mine Timberman 62.0 67.0 Machine Fitter 39.0 44.0
Smelter Foreman 62.0 67.0 Watch Repairman 40.0 45.0
Open Hearth Motor Mechanic 40.0 45.0
Furnaceman 49.0 54.0' Spanner Boy - 36.0
Mine Caster 49.0 54.0 Trainee Mechanic 31.0 36.0
Sawyer 30.0 35.0 Mine Mechanic 62.0 67.0
Quarryman 48.0 53.0 Machine Assembler 3l.O 36.0
Cotton Splayer - 16.0 Bicycle Assembler 28.0 33.0
Grain Miller 23.0 28.0 Battery Maker 43.0 48.0
Butcher - 35.0 Radio Repairman 42.0 47.0

78

7. Production/Transport/Equipment Operation Occupations -- Continued

 

 

 

 

 

Zambian or Zambian or
Estimated Estimated
Occupational Title SIOPS Score . Occupational Title SIOPS Score
Television Construction
Repairman 42.0 47.0 Worker 28.0 33.0
Electrician - 53.0 Construction-Other 28.0 33.0
Trainee Electrician - 47.0 Boiler Operator 28.0 33.0
Vehicle Electrician - 53.0 Stationary Engine
Telegraphic Operator 28.0 33.0
Mechanic 35.0 40.0 Loader 23.0 27.0
Plumber - 30.0 Freight Handler 23.0 27.0
Plumber - Asst. - 24.0 Packer 23.0 27.0
Welder 34.0 39.0 Steel Fixer/
Boilermaker 31.0 36.0 Rigger 44.0 49.0
Boiler Smith - 30.0 Overhead Crane
Panel Beater - Operator 39.0 44.0
Asst. 25.0 29.0 Crane Operator 32.0 37.0
Vehicle Sheet Bulldozer Operator - - 37.0
Metal Worker 36.0 41.0 Driver - Earth
Structural Steel Mover 32.0 37.0
Worker 45.0 49.0 Operator Material
Forced Labor 13.0 18.0 Equipment 32.0 37.0
Printer 42.0 47.0 Dumper Driver 32.0 27.0
Book Binder 32.0 37.0 Railway Engine
Paint Boy - 28.0 Driver 28.0 33.0
Painter - Brush - 28.0 Railway Fireman 33.0 38.0
Auto Painter - 34.0 Underground Train
Basket Maker - 25.0 Driver 34.0 39.0
Inspector - Mine Engine
Industrial 63.0 68.0 Driller 33.0 38.0
Brick Layer - Railway Brakeman 32.0 37.0
General 34.0 39.0 Tram Driver 30.0 35.0
Stone Mason 33.0 38.0 Driver -
Brick Layer - Unspecified 29.0 34.0
Chimney/fire 32.0 37.0 Bus Driver 29.0 34.0
Roof Thatcher - 20.0 Local Lorry Driver - 34.0
Carpenter - 43.0 Lorry Driver -
Asst. Carpenter - 36.0 General - 34.0
Trainee Carpenter - 36.0 Lorry Driver -
Boat Maker 34.0 39.0 Long Distance - 34.0
Furniture Maker 38.0 43.0 Laborer-Unspecified - 19.0
Joiner 36.0 4l.O Lorry Boy 12.0 17.0
Plasterer 31.0 36.0 Railway Laborer 14.0 19.0
Builder 38.0 43.0 Laborer-PHD - 14.0
Building Mainten- Laborer-Construction - l9.0
ance Man 29.0 34.0 Wood Worker - 15.0
Pipe Layer - 30.0 Mine Laborer - 24.0
Brick Maker 30.0 Manufacturing
Laborer 19.0 24.0
Casual Laborer - 14.0

Appendix 2

On Data and Methodology

The source of the data used here is from a project entitled-
'Urbanization, Housing and Employment in Zambian High Density Hous-
ing Areas' conducted by Professor David S. Wiley. This was a large
scale survey of 3,200 households in Lusaka, Kitwe, and Ndola,
respectively the three largest towns in the country. The survey was
conducted in l973-and was funded by Midwest Universities consortium
in International Activities, Inc.,; Ford Foundation, National Insti-
tute of Mental Health, Rockefeller. Its focus was on quality of
housing, incomes, health and employment.

Our interest concerns questions pertaining to employment and
its associated variable of education. Within the survey there was a
random sample consisting of 1,663 respondents. 884 of these were males
while 779 were female respondents. We have chosen to use only the 884
males in the random sample for analysis. We have excluded the 779
female respondents from our analysis on the grounds that they would
distort our tests (path models) on occupations. This was because a
large proportion of the females consisted of many who were not employed
outside the home, hence belonged to unclassified occupations and there-
fore could not be included in the path model/regression equations.
Unemployment among male respondents in random sample was comparatively
lower.

All the respondents in the survey, that is including those in

the random sample, came from urban areas and more specifically from

.79

80

high density compounds. In Zambian towns housing areas can be broadly (or
roughly) grouped into three (3) types. The low density areas were formal-
ly -- in colonial time -- for the exclusive use of a small settler elite
who were the officials of government and business firms. After independ-
ence these have increasingly been replaced by the strata of Africans who
came into power. Like in all Third World countries there has been a rapid
expansion of the bureaucracy, occasioning some people to speak of the
hypertrophy of the tertiary sector, others of the overdeveloped state.
Though I necessarily do not agree to these terms, at least there has been
a tremendous expansion in administrative activities of both political and
quasi political branches of the society. Those in the upper levels of
these branches, e.g. high civil servants, middle to large business people, .
bankers, etc. form the strata effectively in control of the government ma-
chinery and therefore, can be spoken of as the new elites replacing settl-
ers in low density housing areas. The high density areas of housing form
the second group. Houses here are built by government or semi government
bodies such as municipal councils. These are designed to house middle in-
come level bureaucrats, e.g. clerks, semi to skilled workers, i.e. those
who could be said to depend on steady salary incomes and who could be said
to occupy middle sectors of the population. The third housing category
are slums or Shanty compounds defined by the government as unauthorized
housing groups. Most of the people in this housing group only earn low
incomes, e.g. peddlers, personal servants, prostitutes, message boys, and
therefore gain their livelihoods largely through the informal sector.

Our sample consists of people mainly from the second group.

A sample of the questions we concentrated on for the purposes of
this thesis include:
1.) When you (respondent) were 20 years what job were you doing?
2.) What kind of work did the most important man in your life (i.e.,
respondent's father/guardian) do when you were 18 years of age?
3.) What kind of work is respondent doing now?
4.) What is the total number of years of education the respondent has?
5.) What was the educational standard attained by the most important
man (father/guardian) in respondent's life?
6.) What is the first full-time job you (respondent) did for which

you received money?

The questions are concerned with occupations and education. We want
to run path models using regression analysis to test a set of hypotheses.
The variables of father's education and occupation; respondent's education,
first job, and current job are associated in the path model. The path
model reports patterns of 'causation' between these stated variables, their
unexplained variable and correlations. The regression equations we utilized
are of the type found in the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS).
_The regression models, like correlations are aggregate and therefore in
some cases, fail to capture some necessary detail. Therefore we have coupfled

these statistical tools with tables relating various aspects of the variables.

82

 

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