" ufilialLmjggmnmnflngmmjnjnjn1| ' ,. J h- l". . MALL-u '1 This is to certify that the dissertation entitled A MODEL FOR CONCENTRATION OF TOTAL PHOSPHORUS AND CHLOROPHYLL A IN A SMALL, EUTROPHIC LAKE presented by Bette J. Premo has been accepted towards fulfillment of the requirements for PhD degree in Limnology MA Ml ‘jorpjmssor Due October 13, 1982 MS U is an Aflirnum'vc Action/Equal Opportunity Institution 0-12771 RETURNING MATERIALS: IVIESI_J Place in book drop to remove this checkout from 4::::;:::i_ your necord. FINES will be charged if book is returned after the date stamped below. A MODEL FOR CONCENTRATION OF-TOTAL PHOSPHORUS AND CHLOROPHYLL A IN A SMALL, EUTROPHIC LAKE BY Bette J. Premo A DISSERTATION Submitted to Michigan State University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY Department of Fisheries and Wildlife 1982 ABSTRACT A MODEL FOR CONCENTRATION OF TOTAL PHOSPHORUS AND CHLOROPHYLL A IN A SMALL, EUTROPHIC LAKE BY Bette J. Premo Measurements were made on Skinner Lake, in Noble County, Indiana, over an annual cycle in 1978—79, to determine the relationship between incoming total phos- phorus concentration and in-lake phosphorus and chloro- phyll a concentration. Total phosphorus concentrations ([TP] ) were measured in samples from atmospheric fallout and inlet streams. Flow measurements of inlets and the lake's outlet were taken and hydrographs were constructed to determine annual and seasonal discharge into and out of the lake. Upper and lower pelagial portions of the lake were sampled at two-week intervals in the ice-free period and analyzed for [TP]. Internal loading of TP was estimated from lake mass balance budgets. [Chl a} was analyzed in pelagial samples of the upper photic stratum. Total nitrogen:total phosphorus determined in the epilimnion of Skinner Lake ranged from 19 to 220 indicating that algal yield in the epilimnion was likely phosphorus dependent. Approximately 90% of annual TP loading was Bette J. Premo delivered to the lake via streamflow, and 93% of this occurred during snowmelt and spring-overturn periods (February - May). During this same interval the lake was flushed 2.4 times by incoming water. Atmospheric loading amounted to 0.04 9 TP m"2 yr-l; 1.4% of the annual TP load of streams. Internal TP loading occurred during the summer stratification interval. Phosphorus was appar- ently released across the anaerobic sediment surface that existed in the hypolimnion, causing hypolimnetic [TP] to be twice that of the epilimnion. Mean [chl a] for the ice-free period was 15.15 mg mf3, in the range eXpected for eutrophic lakes. Data from 1978-79 were used to develop a model for the Skinner Lake system. The model was based on that of Vollenweider and Kerekes (l980),which stated that mean epilimnetic total phosphorus and chlorophyll a concentra- tions were predictable from mean total phosphorus concen- tration in streams and residence time of water in the lake determined from measurements during the periods of spring overturn and summer stratification. The model was tested in 1982 and it closely predicted observed mean epilimnetic [TP] and [chl a] for the ice-free period. Use of the lake-specific model for making watershed manage- ment decisions was considered. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I wish to express my sincere gratitude to Dr. Clarence D. McNabb for his conscientious review of this manuscript. I am especially appreciative of Professor McNabb's thought- ful advice and encouragement throughout my_graduate program. I would also like to thank members of my graduate committee, Dr. Boyd G. Ellis, Dr. Donald J. Hall, Dr. Niles R. Kevern and Dr. Robert G. Wetzel for their review of my work. My research greatly benefitted from data collected as a result of federally supported studies of Skinner Lake granted to the Limnological Research Laboratory. In this regard I am indebted to Fred C. Payne, Robert P. Glandon, Ted R. Batterson and Kevin Williams for their experimental design, and collection and compilation of data during 1977- 1979. I would like to thank the Laboratory Director, John R. Craig, and Mehdi Siami, Paul R. Roettger, Wayne M. Swaney and R. Brent Glenn for their work on the projects during 1979-1982. It is difficult to adequately express my appreciation to my husband, Dean Barrette Premo. This manuscript bene- fitted from pertinent discussions with Dean and from his graphic and editorial contributions. Dean's moral support and patience were unending. ii Financial support for this work was provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Clean Lakes Program, under Grant No. CR 80504601, and by Noble County Soil and water Conservation District, under Cooperative Agreement with Michigan State University. iii LIST OF TABLES LIST OF FIGURES INTRODUCTION . METHODS . . . RESULTS . . . DISCUSSION . . LITERATURE CITED APPENDICES APPENDIX I APPENDIX II TABLE OF CONTENTS iv 12 27 42 56 60 82 Table LIST OF TABLES Concentrations of nitrogen and phosphorus (mg 1"1 ) in Skinner Lake during the ice- free period in 1979 . . . . . . . . . . . . . Atmospheric bulk loading of total phosphorus on Skinner Lake during the interval 9/6/78 - 9/17/79 0 o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o Flushing coefficients (9) of Skinner Lake during periods of 1978-79 . . . . . . . . . . Concentration of chlorophyll 3 (mg m_3) (in Skinner Lake during summer of 1979 and 1982 . Pit of Skinner Lake data of 1978- 79 to Vollenweider and Kerekes (1980) estimates of in-lake [TPL calculated from [TP] = [TP. 1/(1+W ) where [TP. ] is from stream dis harges except for IIB . . . . . . . . . Comparison of the predictions of [TPL] from [TPi ]1 and tw using three models . . . . . . Estimated interval discharge (m3) of inlet streams and outlet of Skinner Lake during 1978-79 0 o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o Analytically determined [TP] (mg m-3) in samples from.in1et streams and outlet of Skinner Lake during 1978-79 . . . . . . . . . Estimated interval discharge (m3) of inlet streams and outlet of Skinner Lake during 1982 O O O O I I O O O O O O O O O I I O O O Analytically determined [TP] (mg m-3) in samples from inlet streams and outlet of Skinner Lake during 1982 . . . . . . . . . . 28 32 36 41 44 52 82 83 84 85 Figure LIST OF FIGURES Temperature isopleths (°C) for Skinner Lake during the ice-free season of 1979 . . Dissolved oxygen isopleths (mg 1-1) for Skinner Lake during the ice-free season Of 1979 O O O O C O O O I O O O O O O O O The Skinner Lake watershed in Noble County, Indiana. Section boundaries form the grid Show 0 O O O O I O I O O O O O O O O O O I Bathymetry of Skinner Lake; contours are in meters. In-lake sampling stations are shown by asteriSks O O I O O O I O I O O I O O 0 Land management practices applied to the Skinner Lake watershed during 1979-1981 . Total phosphorus concentration (mg 1'1) in Skinner Lake during the ice-free season of 1979 . . . . . . . . . . .-. . . . . . . . Stream flow hydrograph for the Rimmell inlet during 1978-79 . . . . . . . . . . Concentration (mg 1-1) and mass (kg) of total phosphorus (TP) delivered to Skinner Lake by the Rimmell inlet during 1978-79 . Diagramatic representation of the Skinner- specific model (modified from Vollenweider and Kerekes, 1980) . . . . . . . . . . . . Stream flow hydrograph and precipitation record for the Hardendorff inlet (1978-79) Stream flow hydrograph and precipitation record for the Riddle inlet (1978-79). .4. Stream flow hydrograph and precipitation record for the Croft-Sweet inlet (1978-79) Stream flow hydrograph and precipitation record for the Weimer inlet (1978-79) . . vi ll 14 24 30 35 39 50 61 63 65 67 Figure A-S A-lO A-ll LIST OF FIGURES (continued) Stream record Stream record Stream record Stream record Stream record Stream record Stream record flow for flow for flow for flow for flow for flow for flow for hydrograph and precipitation (1978-79) the Croft Drain hydrograph and precipitation the Rimmell inlet (1982) hydrograph and precipitation (1982) the Hardendorff inlet hydrograph and precipitation the Riddle inlet (1982) hydrograph and precipitation the Croft-Sweet inlet (1982) hydrograph and precipitation the Weimer inlet (1982) hydrograph and precipitation the Croft Drain (1982) vii 73 75 77 79 81 INTRODUCTION Sawyer (1947) was among the first to use the concept of nutrient loading in his studies of effects of agricul- tural and urban drainage on the fertility of the Madison, Wisconsin, lakes. He observed that lakes which received the greatest quantity of phosphorus and nitrogen experienced the most frequent and most severe algal blooms. Rawson (1955) and Edmondson (1961) emphasized the importance of mean depth to the productivity of water-bodies. This, parameter took into account the degree of dilution of nutrients entering from the watershed. Vollenweider (1968) quantitatively defined the relationship between nutrient loading and planktonic algal response. This relationship showed that lakes of similar planktonic production had similar ratios of total phosphorus loading (mg P m-2 yr-l) to mean depth. Dillon (1974, 1975) was the first to report water-bodies which did not fit Vollen- weider's original phosphorus loading scheme. Dillon explained the anomolous fit of his lakes as due to their rapid flushing rates. Vollenweider (1975, 1976) pointed out that nitrogen limitation was known to occur in lakes, and such water-bodies would not be expected to fit his phosphorus loading models. Sakamoto (1966), Chiaudani and Vighi (1974), and Smith and Shapiro (1980) showed that examination of [TfilllTP] in the photic zone was a useful procedure for separating N-limited and P-limited systems. Their work predicted that if [TNl/[TP] was . greater than 10, algal production in the majority of lakes was likely phosphorus rather than nitrogen dependent. In an attempt to allow for effects of fast or slow flushing rates and sedimentation of phosphorus on nutrient loading - trophic response relationships, Vollenweider (1975, 1976) modified his phosphorus loading model to include hydraulic residence time and phosphorus residence time. Based on the data from 200 lakes in 50 countries participating in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) Cooperative Program on Lake Eutro- phication, Vollenweider and Kerekes (1980) found that residence time of water and phosphorus in lakes were key factors and were related in the following manner: [TPL] l t /t = = P w ('1? 1 1 + t5 J. W and __ [fiil (1) [TPLl = ——3; 1 + tw where tp was the residence time of phosphorus, tw was the hydraulic residence time, [T51] was the mean incoming phosphorus concentration and [TPL] was the mean lake phosphorus concentration. This relationship between a 3 water-body's mean in-lake phosphorus concentration and incoming phosphorus concentration was the same as that developed by Larsen and Mercier (1976) and was similar to those developed by Kirchner and'Dillon (1975) , Chapra (1975), Reckhow (1977) and walker (1977). Pram data of the OECD lakes, Vollenweider and Kerekes (1980) also presented a relationship between concentration of total phosphorus in a lake and algal production as measured by chlorophyll §_concentration. The relationship was expressed as: (2) log [c'h'l—g'] = 0.99 log [TEL] - 0.57 where [EEIIE] was mean chlorophyll a concentration and [TPL] was mean in-lake total phosphorus concentration. The Vollenweider and Kerekes (1980) model was empiri- cally derived from temperate lakes of all trophic cate- gories with wide ranges of flushing rates. It therefore represented a starting point for examining the effects of inflow phosphorus on specific phosphorus limited lakes. In this study, relationships in the Vollenweider and Kerekes (1980) model were tested on Skinner Lake in Noble County in northeastern Indiana. Skinner Lake has an average depth of 4.4 m, a maximum depth of 10 m and a surface area of 49.4 ha. One hundred twenty-five permanent residences.1ine.. the shore of the lake. Lake level is controlled by a concrete sill dam that was constructed in 1962. The lake discharges to -the Croft Drain that enters the South Branch of the Elkhart River some 8.3 km downstream. Thermal stratification of Skinner Lake existed from mid-May through mid-October in the years 1978 and 1979. Figure 1 shows the 1979 temperature regime for the ice- free season. The hypolimnion approached anaerobic condi- tions rapidly as stratification became established (Figure 2). Relative areal oxygen deficits, calculated for the interval 1 May to 15 May in 1978 and 1979 were in the range of 700-900 mg m'2 day‘l. Lakes with areal oxygen deficits greater than 550 mg 111"2 day"1 are considered eu- trophic or highly fertile by Hutchinson (1957). Other expressions of eutrophy for Skinner Lake included extensive growth of aquatic macrophytes, such as Nymphaea odorata, Ceratophyllum demersum, and Myriophyllum spicatum, and blooms of blue-green algae (Aphanizomenon sp.). The dominant fish in Skinner Lake included small sunfish (Lepomis spp.) and crappies (Pomoxis spp.), and a large rough fish population composed of the white sucker (Cata- stomus commersoni) and the golden shiner (Notemigonus cry- soleucas). The lake's turbidity, algal blooms, macrophytes and low oxygen conditions were blamed for a general decline in fishing quality over the last two decades (Pearson, 1978). The area of Skinner Lake watershed is 3649 hectares, 68% of which is used for agriculture. The remaining 32% is in woodlands and wetlands. The Rimmell inlet is the most important continuously discharging surface flow .mhma mo common cumulmow may omenso mxmq Hoccwxm MON .00. mnumamomw musumquEoB .H ousmwm 23% .mhmH mo acmmmm omum1o0fl ecu ocfiHso oxen Hoccwxm “Om AHIH me. mnuoamomfi cwmaxo oo>aommflo .N ousmwh duo ego: CHOP—.00 gram hm§<. >42. mza. L11 . .E. .. . . .. NV. ._.E< e nvoohomg ,, / / / ,. ., , , (\‘llrrt \.\/ 1) L V. __, / .1 4/ ._ '— 2 _ i I? (W) HidBO -N to Skinner Lake. Eighty-two percent of the entire Skinner Lake watershed (3091 ha) is within the Rimmell drainage system (Figure 3). Land is put to varied crop and live- stock use. Subsurface tiles are widely employed for drain- age. Three smaller streams carrying tile and surface run- off enter the lake from agricultural land: the Hardendorff system draines 180 ha, the Riddle stream 107 ha, and the Weimer stream drains 42 ha of the watershed. The overflow from nearby Sweet Lake runs along a 0.8 km channel through a woodland to Skinner Lake. The Croft-Sweet system drains 229 ha of the watershed. Measurements were made on the Skinner Lake system over an annual cycle in 1978-79 to derive variables in the Vollenweider and Kerekes model (equations (1) and (2)). Their model was then modified to fit states of the variables measured at Skinner Lake. A model specific for the Skinner system was the result. The validity of this new model was tested by changing the [T51] of equation (1). The change was accomplished by implemen- tation of agricultural land management practices on the watershed during 1979-1981. In 1982, measurements were made on the system to test the fit of the Skinner-specific lake model. 10 .c3onm owum ecu EH0“ mmwumocson cowuomm .mcmwocH .xucsoo manoz cw oonmumuoz oxen Hmccflxm one .m musmflm 4 2L»; ’ n// I. ‘19. .. gag—"magma _[.Ilrfl ll \/\/. 22.5. . .35 I\/ ., / 1...... who». Lid um’O p.523 / .)\ (l , .. as 3.. r /\ /Ia\\l/r\I/lH\ull lies/.8. 8%“ gifts.— METHODS Studies were conducted at Skinner Lake in the interval September 1978 - September 1979, to determine [TEL], [TEL], [T51], tw and [EST—E] of the Vollenweider and Kerekes (1980) model. Water samples were collected at two-week intervals in the ice-free period to determine [TEL] and [Tit]. A volume-proportional scheme was used to obtain representative samples of upper pelagial and lower pelagial portions of the lake. During summer strati- fication, these zones were the epilimnion and hypolimnion respectively. Volumes of water within layers of the upper and lower zones were calculated from: (3) V = on: (A1 + A2 + (A1A2)%) where h was depth of a layer of water, A1 was area of the upper surface of that layer, and A2 was area of the lower surface of that layer (Wetzel, 1975).' A bathymetric map of the lake was used to obtain areas. Three strata within the upper pelagial water were sampled at four stations on the lake (Figure 4), and combined to form volume-proportional composites. Similarly, water was combined from three strata in the lower pelagial zone. Composite samples were obtained in duplicate. 12 l3 .mxmflumumm >9 :3onm mum mcofluoum mcmeEom mxoach .mumuofi ca mum mucoucoo «oxen chsflxm mo auumewnumm .v ousmwm 14 H.593 IV euusmntoro \ . 52...; \ Ar memoezuecaz 15 Samples were processed utilizing adaptations of pro- cedures described in U.S. EPA Methods for Chemical Analysis of Water and wastes(l97l, 1979a). Total phosphorus deter- mination used persulfate oxidation followed by colorimetric determination of the antimony-phospho-molybdate complex. Total nitrogen was taken from the sum of nitrate-nitrite nitrogen and Kjeldahl nitrogen. Nitrite-nitrate-N was determined using the cadmium reduction method. In order to analyze for amounts of total Kjeldahl nitrogen, water samples were heated in the presence of concentrated sul- furic acid, K2804 and 39504, and evaporated until 803 fumes were obtained and the solution became colorless. The cooled residue was diluted, and made alkaline with addition of a hydroxide-thiosulfate solution. The ammonia was determined spectrOphometrically after distillation and Nesslerization. Spectrophotometric determinations were made with a Varian SuperScan 3, UV-visible spectro- photometer with a band width of 2-4 nm. [TEL] and [TPt] for Skinner Lake were calculated with the following equation: (4) [NLl = [(Vup '[Nlupl + (Vlow'mllowq / VL where Vup was volume of the upper pelagial at sampling time, [N]up was nutrient concentration determined from upper pelagial composite sample, Vlow was volume of the lower pelagial at sampling time, [N]low was nutrient cOncentration determined from the lower pelagial composite 16 sample, and VL was volume of Skinner Lake (2.157 x 106 m3). Ratios of total nitrogen to total phosphorus ([TNLJIITPL1) were calculated using these values. Mean in- lake concentrations over the ice-free period were cal- culated by finding the average of the nutrient values as calculated by equation (4). Measurements of atmospheric loading, stream loading and internal loading to Skinner Lake were made to estimate [T51] for the model. [TP] in atmospheric fallout was determined at intervals of two to several weeks. Tripli- cate lexan containers (23 cm deep, area = 0.26 m2) in a stand 1 meter above the surface of the lake, were used to collect fallout. At the beginning of each period, acid cleaned containers were filled with six liters of distilled deionized water. One liter was withdrawn from each. These were combined and analyzed for beginning concentrations of TP. After exposure, interior surfaces of containers were cleaned into the water. Water from all containers was combined and mixed. Volume was measured, and one liter was withdrawn for analysis of [TP]. Loading was calculated from increase in mass of TP during the period of exposure. Stream loading of total phosphorus between September 1978 and September 1979 was based on a water budget calcu- lated for that interval. Continuous hourly stage height records were available for the two streams in the watershed 17 with greatest discharge: the Rimmell stream and Croft Drain. Largest fluctuations of discharge occurred during spring. On the basis of these data, daily flow measurements were made during the spring of 1979 to estimate discharge for streams without recorders. During the rest of 1978-79, when fluctuations in discharge were small, flows on these streams were measured at two-week intervals. Discharge rates were determined according to the U.S. Dept. of Interior Water Measurement Manual (1967) using a pygmy Price-Gurley current meter. Hydrographs, which represented continuous plots of discharge over time, were constructed for all streams. Hydrographs for the Rimmell stream and Croft Drain were constructed from continuous stage height records. During summer, fall, and winter, daily records of discharge were not available for inlets other than the Rimmell stream. Consequently, an indirect method for hydrograph construction between bi-weekly discharge measurements was developed from other analyses. Barnes (1940) found that after peak response to a rain event, discharge of a stream declined at a constant geometric rate character- istic of the stream. This rate, the recession constant (K), can be calculated as: (5) _K = 18 where q1 is discharge at day l, qn is discharge at day n, and n is the time between q1 and qn in days. K was calculated for the Riddle, Croft-Sweet, Weimer and Harden- dorff inlets from the hydrographs of spring when daily flow measurements were available. The shape of the inlet streams' hydrographs for rain events of summer and fall was determined from these recession rates. A heated, recording precipitation gauge installed on the watershed provided a continuous record throughout the study period. The time of rain events was given by its record. Lag- time (time from start of event to peak discharge) was determined during storms of early summer to be less than two days for all inflowing streams. The total discharge for an event was calculated based on the continuous record of discharge of the Skinner Lake outfall. Base-flow discharge from the lake and input due to rainfall on the lake were subtracted from the continuous discharge values provided during an event. Results were then plotted giving the hydrograph for total stream inputs during a precipitation event. This input was consigned to individual streams on the basis of the percentage of the total input they contributed to the lake during the most recent gaging studies. A shape, enclosing estimated discharge, was then given to the hydrograph of each stream knowing the lag-time and the slope of the recession line (K). Stream discharges for the whole year (9/6/78 - 10/3/79), and intervals of snowmelt-spring overturn-summer 19 stratification (2/6 - 10/3/79), spring overturn-summer stratification (3/20 - 10/3/79) and summer stratification (5/21 - 10/3/79) were determined by planimetry of the stream.hydrographs. [TP] was measured in stream.samples collected daily during spring of 1979. Aliquots from each stream's samples were composited over two-weeks according to a discharge- proportional scheme (Glandon et al., 1981). Volume of aliquots was determined by considering that each sample (e.g., collected at time t1) represented the volume of water discharged from the time halfway to the previous sample collection (t1 - t0/2) to halfway to the following sample collection (t2 - t1/2). Volume of discharge over the interval was calculated using the following equation: Q +30 30 +0 0 1 1 2 (6) v = 3 (t1 - to) + 8 (t2 - t1) where V is the volume of water discharged, and Q is the discharge rate measured at time 0, 1 and 2. Composite samples were refrigerated and acidified (2 ml conc. HZSO4/l), and submitted to the laboratory at two-week intervals for total phosphorus analysis. During summer, fall and winter, individual samples were collected for [TP] analysis at two-week intervals. Mass of TP for each inlet was calculated by multi- plying concentration by the total discharge of the inlet over intervals represented by water samples. Mean concen- tration of total phosphorus in stream flow discharged 20 to Skinner Lake ([TPil) was calculated by adding amounts of TP in discharge of five inflows to the lake and dividing by total volume of discharge of those streams over the interval in question. Internal loading of TP was estimated from: (7) TP A Lake Storage - (TPi - TP ) Load n out where TPLoad was mass of TP internally loaded to Skinner Lake during an interval, TPin was the mass of TP entering in stream flow, TP was mass of TP exiting the lake, out and A Lake Storage was the difference in mass the lake contained between the beginning and end of an interval. TP calculated for the ice-free season up until mid- Load July was zero or negative. TP calculated for the Load remainder of the stratification period (7/16 - 10/3) was large and positive. Solving the equation for the interval 7/16 - 10/3/79 allowed for determination of the mass of TP in the lake due to internal loading. Vollenweider eutrophication models consider lake basins to be completely mixed reaction vessels. Thermal stratification in summer commonly provides a barrier to this expectation. Year around distribution of tempera- ture and dissolved oxygen was measured in Skinner Lake to mark the times of occurrence of overturn and depths of the epilimnion, metalimnion, and hypolimnion during summer stratification. Dissolved oxygen and temperature were measured at two-week intervals at each of four lake 21 sampling stations during the ice-free season (Figure 4). These measurements were taken at 0.5 m depth intervals with a YSI Model 54 A oxygen meter. Flushing coefficient (a) and residence time of water (tw) were calculated for Skinner Lake. The flushing coefficient was determined as: (3) o = Vo/VL where Vo was volume of outflow from the lake, and VL was volume of the lake. Planimetry of the hydrograph of the Croft Drain outlet yielded lake discharge. Flushing coefficients were calculated for intervals of the year and for a whole year (9/6/78 - 9/17/79). The flushing coeffi- cient for the epilimnion (to 4 m depth) during summer stratification was also calculated. Residence time (tw) was the reciprocal of the flushing coefficient. Concentrations of chlorophyll a in Skinner Lake were obtained to calculate [EKT a] for use in the Vollen- weider and Kerekes expression of equation (2). Upper pelagial composite samples were collected at two-week intervals during the ice-free period of 1979. Chlorophyll a was determined as outlined in Strickland and Parsons (1965). Approximately 500 ml of water were filtered through Gelman Metricel Filters. Chlorophyll was extracted by grinding the filters in 90% aqueous acetone. Samples were then centrifuged. Supernatant was scanned with a_Varian SuperScan 3 spectrophotometer for absorbance 22 from 800-400 nm. The sample was acidified with HCl and rescanned from 800-400 nm. Absorbance recorded at 665 nm before and after acidifying allowed for determination of chlorophyll a in mg mf3. Land management practices were put in place on the Skinner Lake watershed during 1979-1981 with cost-sharing funds provided by the US EPA under the Clean Lakes Program (U.S. EPA, 1979b), and US Department of Agriculture, Soil Conservation Service. The particular practices used were chosen from the data and experience generated by the nonpoint-source pollution study of Black Creek in nearby Allen County, Indiana (Christensen and Wilson, 1979; Lake and Morrison, 1977). These included settling basins, conservation tillage, group tile mains, terraces, livestock exclusion, planting vegetation on critical sites, diversions, and grassed waterways. The work accom- plished is shown in Figure 5. The purpose of these prac- tices was to decrease nutrient runoff in the direction of Skinner Lake. The goal was to diminish the development of obnoxious blue-green algae that occurred each summer, and to improve the quality of the recreational fishing. An anticipated result was reduction of nutrient loading to the lake, specifically reduction of [TPi]. During 1982, measurements were made of [TPi] due to streams, t w’ [TPL] and [chl a]. Data from 1978-79 showed that [T51] and tw calculated over the spring over- turn-summer stratification interval determined [TPi] in 23 Figure 5. Land management practices applied to the Skinner Lake watershed during 1979-1981. 24 Mlninun tillage Pasture a hay seeding: Settling 8 lake bash: Tile . Terrace Diversion Watershed boundaries Watercantral strum Animalwaeteph 25 26 the ice-free period, and that algal production in the ice-free period was related to [Tit] by equation (2). Because of this, the period 3/24 - 8/10/82 was used for making measurements to test a Skinner-specific lake model. water samples from each inlet were collected daily during 3/24 - 6/30/82 using the same methods of compositing and TP analysis as in 1978-79. From 6/31 - 8/10/82, daily sampling was deleted and water from each inlet was collected and analyzed at two-week intervals. [TPi] from streams was determined in 1982 from measured [TP] and a water budget from the interval 3/24 - 8/10/82. The water budget was obtained using the techniques of 1978-79. Measurements of discharge from.the lake were used to calculate residence time of water in Skinner Lake (tw). Samples from the lake's outflow were taken from 3/24 - 9/13/82 to determine [TPL] and [SET 3]. Mean [TP] of the epilimnion during summer of 1979 (T = 44 3, s = 0.016) was essentially the same as that of Skinner Lake's outflow (E = 45 mg m-B, 8 mg m- 0.027). This followed the prediction of Chapra (1975) that the concen- tration in outflowing water will be equivalent to that in surface water at mid-lake in small well-mixed systems. RESULTS Concentrations of nitrogen and phosphorus in Skinner Lake in 1979 are reported in Table 1. Total nitrogen concentrations diminished from high values in the spring to low values in later summer and fall. The pattern of decrease in [TN] was much the same for concentrations calculated for the whole lake volume and for the epilimnion only. The range observed of [TN] was 5.88 - 1.19 mg 1'1. Regarding [TP], a range of 0.021 - 0.199 mg 1"1 was ob- served. High whole-lake [TP] in the interval July 30 - October 3 resulted primarily from high TP concentrations in the hypolimnion. They ranged from 0.154 - 0.221 mg 1-1 during that time. Phosphorus was apparently released across the anaerobic sediment surface that existed in the hypolimnion (Figure 6). It can be noted from Table 1 that concentrations of TP in the epilimnion from July 30 - October 3 were approximately 50% of whole-lake concentra- tions during that time. Whole-lake [TP] changed abruptly in October with initiation of fall overturn; concentration fell from 0.120 to 0.043 mg 1‘1. Coincidence of overturn and decrease in [TP] suggest that phosphorus, particularly that in the hypolimnion, fell out to the sediments (Figure 6). Solving equation (7) for phosphorus mass balance in 27 28 .m “coauoo nwaou5u am so: omquauauuo axed .H «a Nac.c He.~ arc.c aa.m acne: oh aac.c ec.m NH nonaoooc «m onc.c rm.e as ecoao>oz on mac.c m~.e am noooooo nu ch.c c~.H c~e.c ~m.e m noooooo mm mao.c co.e HNH.c ao.~ as nonaooeom nN ano.c ma.H oce.c ea.e AN Leanna ae ~oo.c aH.H eme.c aa.a me banana ace amc.c on.m Hrc.c m~.m cm seas Hue aNo.c ca.~ ~ac.c me.~ as sane ca coo.c aa.~ eco.c ma.~ N sane och euc.c ~a.~ emc.o ~a.m we once cum emc.o Ho.a omc.c em.m m once one Hmc.c no.a mnc.c am.a am an: oa eac.c cm.a e an: no aoc.c Ho.m mu Hane< rm mac.c ~a.m me Hanna on NHH.o mm.m H Hanna an aaH.c mm.m as roan: _ea_\.ze_ "my. .29. _ee_ H29. once ecoecaaeeam ores odor: one weenie weaken axed ofiona new cm>aw one HmH_\_ze_ ecu maausv axed umcsfixm :« Aala wav msuocimoai use cowouufic mo acoquauuamucou .H manna .aouuauwuuuauuo unease wcauav coficsqawio use mcuauuo>o Hana .mnaa ca moaned oeumlooa 29 .mhmn MO common weanlmoa on» mcwuso oxag Hmccwxm cfi AHIH mew cowumuucoocoo manocimosi Hobos .o musmwm 30 a 0 20.55.55 a 20.72303: c . Duo >02 .50 mum . 03‘ . .53 22. >32 an? a q q u - O O O O .93.. mmzzim mum. l 00. O O N (EM/6w) SnaOHdSOHd “(V101 00m 31 the lake basin for the period when fall overturn was - initiated (October 3 - October 24) supported this sug- gestion. Estimates of internal phosphorus loading were cal- culated for intervals of the ice-free period of 1979 (equation (7)). These were negative for intervals of measurement after ice-out until mid-July. By these calcula- tions, a net loss of phosphorus occurred during that time. For the interval July 16 - October 3, internal loading to the water column was calculated to be 120 kg TP. From the perspective of the Vollenweider and Kerekes (1980) model, this phosphorus influenced the magnitude of [TPi] in the Skinner Lake system. Total nitrogen:total phosphorus for the epilimnion of Skinner Lake ranged from 19 to 220 (Table l). The work of Sakamoto (1966), Chaiudani and Vighi (1974), Allen and Kenny (1978), and Smith and Shapiro (1980) predicts that at [TNl/[TP] greater than 19, nitrogen limitation did not occur in Skinner Lake, and that algal yield in the epilimnion was likely phosphorus dependent. Atmospheric bulk loading measurements of TP on Skinner Lake for the study interval of 1978-1979 are given in Table 2. Atmospheric loading amounted to 0.04 g TP in-2 per year. While this measurement fell within the range predicted for the region by Chapin and Uttormark (1973), it constituted only 1.4% of the annual stream loading. 32 'Table 2. Atmospheric bulk loading of total phosphorus on Skinner Lake during the interval 9/6/78 - 9/17/79. Rate of Input to Period Fallout Lake (mg m’2 day-1) (kg day-1) 9/6 - 9/25/78 0.099 0.049 9/25 - 10/9/78 0.045 0.022 10/9 - 10/23/78 0.117 0.058 10/23 - 11/6/78 0.066 0.033 11/6 - 11/27/78 0.050 0.024 11/27 - 12/14/78 0.092 0.045 12/14 - 1/16/79 0.041 0.020 1/16 - 2/6/79 0.023 0.011 2/6 - 4/2/79 0.074l . 0.0361 4/2 - 4/23/79 0.125 0.061 4/23 - 5/7/79 0.107 0.052 5/7 - 5/21/79 0.378 0.185 5/21 - 6/18/79 0.145 0.071 6/18 - 7/2/79 0.108 0.053 7/2 - 7/16/79 0.059 0.029 7/16 - 7/30/79 0.126 0.062 7/30 - 8/13/79 0.607 0.298 8/13 — 8/27/79 0.222 0.109 8/27 - 9/17/79 0.163 0.080 1. Sampling disrupted: values are the average between the previous and following intervals. 33 hence, the influence of atmospheric loading on model [TPi] was small at Skinner Lake. Stream hydrographs were developed for the annual period of study in 1978-79. Seasonal patterns of discharge observed at Skinner Lake are shown for the Rimmell stream in Figure 7. Other hydrographs made in this study are in Appendix I. These hydrographs were divisible into periods of fall and winter runoff, runoff due to melt of snowpack, discharge during spring overturn, and discharge during summer stratification. Discharges of streams during these periods are reported in Appendix II (Table A-l). Total discharge associated with melt of the snowpack amounted to 53% of the annual stream discharge to the lake in 1978-79. Stream discharge from rains during spring overturn accounted for 35% of annual discharge. In 1979, hydrographs for inflowing streams remained near base flow during summer stratification. Base flows of summer, fall and winter provided 12% of annual runoff to the lake. Flushing coefficients (0) for Skinner Lake for 1978-79, given in Table 3, are broken down by periods of the year. ‘High observed coefficients during snow melt and spring rains and low coefficients for other times of the year are likely typical of small-volume temperate zone lakes with relatively large watersheds. It can be noted that runoff from snow- melt tended to displace the volume of water in the lake 34 .aenceafl cognac coach HHoEEwm ecu How nimumouoas 30am Eamuum .h musmfim 35 V r0 N (w°)NOLLV.lel33<‘:ld OD< 1.23 Z 25 ><§. mi< . $32 . mm.”— 23. 0mo >02 .50 (<3 2\ :. Amsumhm: 1.4%/.2.”— ._____. L1 1 L k . OOON 000v 000m 000m ( 1.3 ' l) BOHVHOSIO 36 Table 3. Flushing coefficients (p) of Skinner Lake during periods of 1978-79. Period (0) Fall Overturn and Winter 0.02 9/6/78 - 2/6/79_ Snow Melt 1.30 2/6 - 3/20/79 Spring Overturn 1.06 3/20 - 5/22/79 Summer Stratification 0.17 5/22 - 9/6/79 Whole Year 2.55 9/6/78 - 9/6/79 37 basin, which occurred during the period of ice-off from the lake. Subsequent runoff from rains diluted the lake during spring overturn. Coincident with relatively low stream discharges to the lake in summer, the flushing coefficient during stratification was small. Concentrations of TP measured in inlet streams during 1978-79 are reported in Appendix 11 (Table A-2). Spring runoff of phosphorus dominated stream.[TPi] during the 1978-79 annual interval. For example, Figure 8 for the Rimmell stream can be used to demonstrate that approximately 90% of the annual loading of TP from that watershed was delivered to Skinner Lake during snowmelt and spring overturn periods (February - May). For the five inlets to the lake taken collectively, 93% of annual TP loading occurred during this interval. For the year, calculated stream [TPi] was 231 mg m-3. Data given above for 1978-79 were used to develop a model for the Skinner Lake system. It was conceptually similar to that of Vollenweider and Kerekes (1980). The model stated that [TPi] and [EFT a] in Skinner Lake in the ice-free period were predictable from tw and [TPi] from streams derived for the period of spring overturn and summer stratification, rather than for the entire year, or a period that included runoff during melt of the snowpack. Measurements to test the Skinner-specific model were made in the post-land-treatment year of 1982. 38 .mblmhma mafiuso uoacw HHmEEflm ecu an oxen Hoccwxm ou omum>waoo Ame. mononimonm Hauou mo Amx. name one Aala OE. cowuauucmocoo .m oucmflm TP (kg) 175‘ 150. 125- 39 T“ R - RIMMELL 1978-79 -0.600 3. -0.400 7' \ b " \ p -0200 .t-or’o‘v-e-d’p-d' k \\ 9’04, \h‘ - o'N‘DrJ'F‘M'AfM'J'JIArs TP (mg/l) 40 Discharge and [TP] in streams measured in 1982 are reported in Appendix II (Tables A-4 and A-S). During the interval of measurement (4/20 - 8/10/82), tw was 0.65, 3 [T51] from.streams was 99.6 mg m-' 3 , and [TPL] was 54 mg m- . For the comparable interval in 1979, tw was 0.63, [T131] 3 3 from streams was 127 mg m- and [TPi] was 63 mg m? . By the relationship of equation (2) [chl a] in the ice- free period was expected to be less in 1982 than in 1979. Chlorophyll data for these years are given in Table 4. 3 3 A depression in [chI a] from 15.15 mg m- to 9.58 mg m- occurred between years. 41 Table 4. Concentration of chlorophyll a (mg mf3) in Skinner Lake during summer of 1979 and 1982. 1979 1982 Date [chl a] Date [chl a] 4/23/79 24.80 5/7/79 11.59 5/4/82 7.48 5/21/79 6.27 5/18/82 4.01 6/18/79 12.05 6/2/82 8.01 7/2/79 18.96 6/18/82 9.35 7/16/79 9.36 6/28/82 5.34 7/30/79 13.26 7/14/82 16.02 8/13/79 12.21 7/28/82 16.02 8/27/79 20.42 8/10/82 9.35 9/17/79 16.70 9/13/82 10.68 10/3/79 21.00 :7 - 15.15 SE- 9.58 DISCUSSION The Vollenweider and Kerekes model was applied to the Skinner Lake system.to quantify the relationship of [TPi] to [TPL] and [SET—E]. From the 1978-79 data of this study, the model was specifically modified to fit the conditions of Skinner Lake. To make modifications, the following were considered: major sources of [TPi] to Skinner Lake, seasonal differences in [TPi] and tw' and differences in epilimnetic and hypolimnetic [TPL] and their relation to [EFT—E]. Vollenweider and Kerekes (1980) did not specify sources of [TPi] measured to derive the empirical basis for their model. Atmospheric loading, septic tank loading, internal loading, and stream loading can be important sources of [TPi] for lakes. The influence of atmospheric TP loading on [TPi] of Skinner Lake was found in this study to be negligible. Septic tank loading was estimated using the constant, 0.08 kg TP caput-1 yr_1, reported by walker (1979). There were 125 cottages and approxi- mately 375 people served by septic tanks around Skinner Lake. By Walker's constant, these contributed 30 kg TP Yr—lo This septic tank loading comprised 2% of the 1978-79 annual total TP load. Internal phosphorus loading during summer 42 43 has been found to be an important contributor to [TPi] in some eutrophic lakes (Nurnberg, 1982). In Skinner Lake during summer of 1979, the estimated 120 kg of in- ternal TP loading comprised 8% of the 1978-79 total TP load. Of the potential sources, stream loading was the major component of [TPi] at Skinner Lake, comprising 90% of the annual total TP input. There is inference in their work that Vollenweider and Kerekes calculated [TPi] and [TEL] by averaging data over an annual period. However, in the Skinner Lake system there was great seasonal variation in both [TP11 and tw over a year. These variations effected the model predictions of [TPL] in ways that are shown in Table 5. A comparison of rows I and II in Table 5 shows that base- flow conditions of streams in fall and early winter (9/6/78 - 2/5/79) had little effect on determining the magnitude of annual [T51] and tw. For the whole year and for the interval including snowmelt, spring overturn, and summer stratification, the Vollenweider and Kerekes model greatly overestimated [TPL]. A comparison of rows II and III in Table 5 shows the importance of the snowmelt period for determining the magnitude of annual [TPi] and tw’ During that interval (2/6 - 3/20/79) both [TP] and discharge of inlet streams were high (Figure 8). In contrast, the large mass of TP delivered during snowmelt did not greatly influence observed [TPL] as given in rows I, II, and IIIA. [TPi] and tw taken for the period of spring 44 Table 5. Fit of Skinner Lake data of 1978-79 tg_Yollenweider and Kerekes (1980) estimates of in-lake [TP] calculated from: __ [I51] 1 + t.w where [TFi] is from stream discharges except for III B- Predicted Observed Period [TP1] tw [TPL] [TPL] (“18 f3) (m8 r3) (mg m'3) 1. Whole Year 231 0.39 142 85 9/6/78-10/3/79 II. Snowmelt-spring 234 0.41 143 98 overturn-summer stratification 2/6-10/3/79 III. Spring over- (A) 127 0.63 71 88 turn-summer stratification 3/20-10/3/79 (B) 1631 0.63 91 88 (C) 127 0.63 71 632 IV. Summer 89 3.38 31 80 stratification3 5/22-10/3/79 1. Internal loading was added to stream loading to calculate [TP1]. 2. Observed [TP ] was calculated by averaging whole lake [TP ] for the perigd of spring-overturn that constitutes one flkshing time prior to stratification and epilimnetic [TPL ] during summer stratification. 3. Whole-lake volumes and concentrations were used to calculate [TPL]. 45 overturn and summer stratification provided a better: prediction of [TEL] in the Vollenweider and Kerekes model than annual estimates of these variables, or estimates using other periods of the year. .This is shown in sec- tion III of Table 5. [EL] predicted from [iii] and tw during summer stratification grossly underestimated observed [TEt] (Table 5, row IV). The Vollenweider and Kerekes (1980) model assumes that lakes are mixed reactors in which [TP] is homogeneous. Skinner Lake was an exception to this in that hypolimnetic [TP] was more than twice that of epilimnetic [TP] during the last one-half of the summer stratification period (Figure 6). In this Study, whole-lake [TEL] was calculated for the spring overturn-summer stratification period using TP mass and volume of water in both the epilimnion and hypolimnion. This yielded a [TEL] for the interval of 88 mg m-3. Row IIIA of Table 5 shows that whole- lake [TEL] was underestimated using the Vollenweider and Kerekes model with measured values of [TEi] and tw' A closer prediction of whole-lake [TEL] was achieved by including internal TP load with stream TP load in the [TEi] term (Table 5, Row IIB). Specifically, this was achieved by adding 120 kg of internal load to TP mass from stream load and dividing by stream discharge. The better fit obtained suggests that [TEi] should include both stream and internal loading when predicting whole- lake [TEL] for Skinner Lake during the spring-summer interval. 46 A major goal of this study was to predict [BETTE] in the ice-free period from [TEi] and [TEL]. Use of whole- lake [TEL] measured in the spring-summer interval in equation (2) of the Vollenweider and Kerekes model pre- dicted [SKI—E] in Skinner Lake at 22.65 mg m-B. Observed [EFIEE] during 1979 was a relatively poor fit at 15.15 mg m-3. It is likely that algae grow in response to [TP] of the epilimnion (Smith and Shapiro, 1981). On this basis, an alternate method of calculating [TEL] was considered. It averaged whole-lake [TP] during spring overturn and epilimnetic [TP] during summer stratification (Table 1). From measurements of this study, the resulting [TEL], designated [fifiepilss’ was 63 mg m-3. Using this value in equation (2), predicted [EETEE] at 16.27 mg m-3. This result was close to the observed value given above. Thus, while’ including internal loading in [251] for the spring-summer period yielded a close approximation between predicted and observed whole-lake [TEi], [EFT—E] was best predicted by [TE] in the lake at overturn and the epilimnion (rather than whole-lake) in summer. In row IIIC of Table 5, it is shown that [TEi] for streams in ] sprlng-summer at eXlstlng tw predlcted observed [TPepi ss relatively well. From these considerations, [TEi] of Vollenwelder and Kerekes was treated as [TPstreamlss and ] for purposes of modeling the effect [TPL] as [TPepi as of incoming phosphorus and algal yield in Skinner Lake. Further, a spring overturn period was used in the study of 47 1979 to coincide with the interval of time prior to strati- fication during which the flushing coefficient of the lake approximated 1.0 (Table 3). The spring period as applied to variables (e.g. [TEstreamlss):h1the Skinner- specific model was defined by this. Records of the U.S. Weather Bureau for 1979 showed it was a relatively dry year at Skinner Lake. Basing a model on a spring period where p = I appeared appropriate for this system. The Skinner-specific model based on above considerations took the form: [TE ] tream ss (9) a. [TP .1 = 5 epl ss 1 + tw 8 ss b. log [ch13]ss = 0.99 log [TPepi]SS - 0.60 where [TEepi]ss was mean TP concentration of the epilimnion over the spring-summer stratification (ss) interval, [TPstreamlss was mean TP concentration delivered to the lake from the inlet streams over the ss interval, tw 83 was residence time of water in the lake over the ss interval, and [EEI—Elss was mean chlorophyll a concentration in the epilimnion over the 33 interval. The constant in the Vollenweider and Kerekes relationship for [EHITE] and [TEt] given in equation (2) was changed (0.57 to 0.60) to fit the observed conditions of Skinner Lake during 1978-79. 48 Following land treatment during 1979-1981, the Skinner-specific model proved to be an accurate predictor ] as compared to 127 mg m'3 in 1979. Concomitant of [T epi ] was 100 and [c—‘hl‘a'lss. In 1982, [fi' SS 33 stream mg m'3 decreases in [TPepilss and [chl alas were expected as pre- dicted by equations (9a) and (9b). Predicted [TEépi] 3 for 1982 was 55 mg m- ; observed was 54 mg m‘3. Predicted [chl a] was 13.02 mg m'3; observed was 9.58 mg m‘3. ss Figure 9 is a graphical representation of the Skinner- specific model modified from Figure 8 of Vollenweider and Kerekes (1980). This figure illustrates that given residence time (yr) of lake water during the spring-summer interval I predicted. Lines of equal [Tfiepi] (y-axis), [TE ] is (x-ax13) and given [TP epi ss stream SS are represented by l of each curve designated on the left. Corresponding value 1 is designated along the right end of each curve. Included 38 the curves running across the figure with the [TPepi 33 of [chI 3153 associated with [T epi via equation (9b) 55 on Figure 9 are plots of Skinner Lake data for 1979 and 1982. The figure also shows boundaries of trophic categories (ultraoligotrophic to hypertrophic) as presented by Vollen- wieder and Kerekes (1980). These represent the synthesis of opinions of OECD investigators as to the trophic classifi- cation of their study lakes, based on [TEL] and [EFT—i]. In the use of models such as have been discussed, a range of uncertainty exists within which predicted values vary from observed. This uncertainty may reduce the power Figure 9. 49 Diagramatic representation of the Skinner- specific model (modified from Vollenweider and Kerekes, 1980) . .represents plot of Skinner Lake coordinates of 1979; ||repre- sents plot of Skinner Lake coordinates of 1982; ‘a probable case for Skinner Lake with diversion of Rimmell stream around lake to outlet stream. ,- ‘13 probable case for Skinner Lake if settling basin on Rimmell stream removed 100% TP in stream discharge. 50 (000 g d 4 d 1 d vo- I001 E a \ d 0 cl E .. .8 .‘ fl g -( It; ‘ L—_—l IO-j d d .4 -( q q I r I ITIITI' F I Ilrlul l frrriri DJ I I0 IOO RESIDENCE TIME (twss) 51 of conclusions which are based on lake modeling schemes (Reckhow, 1979). In order to calculate confidence limits of model predictions, it is necessary to determine standard error from the variation among lakes used to construct the particular model. Two current lake models (Reckhow, 1977 and Walker, 1979) consider the statistical uncertainty of predictions of lake phosphorus concentrations, and both give a method by which confidence limits can be calculated. Confidence intervals for predictions made by these models can be estimated from: 2 (10) S2 = P _ 10log Pe 2 sm t e where S is the total.prediction error in mg 1-1, s is t the standard error of the estimate for the model, and Pe m is the predicted lake concentration (Reckhow, 1981). Table 6 compared predictions made by the Skinner-specific, Reckhow (1977) and Walker (1977) models for phosphorus in Skinner Lake in 1979. For the purpose of this comparison, [TEi] was taken as [TP ] , and [TPL] as [TPepi stream ] in the SS SS Reckhow and Walker models. Table 6 also presents the pre- dicted confidence intervals of these models. In both cases, the confidence intervals are wide, and it is difficult to apply them to a particular lake for management decision purposes. It should be noted that error terms were estimated from least squares analysis on a data set from many lakes. Thus, much of the error results from variability between these lakes (Reckhow, 1977). When a model is applied to a 52 .amaeu canoe: Haow Haas usaa> man» who mean we nmo .0.« “pound pudendum use A .n nauhv axed can cw nouns «a mafia cocoofioou I so one coaumuuaoocoo nanosecond Seamaaouuo owouu>a I name. .coauauuaoocoo nanosecond axed mwouu>o I "Ammg muon3 .a .Heooe any new duodenum one we wanna pudendum I 3m .m .msaa magnet oxen moccaxm new mmHAQom9_ oo>uomoo .N Am)... as R: 22 .88... oeeeooennuocfixm of acne $.83:me no 1mm. 4 . u. a .— 43.} can. + H 4 HS 83v. mmvemv as h u _ a: :3: node: _ a: l. . a a an 2. +24 a a: .. c any. $.7an 2: a u H on: £33 Boredom _ E . ran 1. H a IIIII an (IJUIII.I ”.mw_ ofimuooomluoccfixm _ he Anna may nuwaau A Anna may «coaumsvm new new 88328 _ as announced Honor Honor .MIE N3 MO I GOHUQHUGOUQOO 03¢." UOEQQQO .mHO—voa OOHSU mean: 3a one Hmwmw_ Menu Hjmwu mo meowuouooun emu mo conquoiaoo .o canoe 53 particular lake, the model error term should only include that lake's variability. -For example, if the Skinner- specific model was applied to Skinner Lake for several years, a series of predicted and observed values would allow determination of the certainty expected for the model on Skinner Lake. This would provide more appropriate con- fidence estimates for management decisions at Skinner Lake. When a model can be calibrated to fit a specific lake's characteristics using data from several years, it then becomes a powerful management tool. Use of this model could predict the effectiveness of potential management schemes, and costly projects which predict only little improvement in lake quality could be avoided. For example, one treatment considered by planners of the Skinner Lake reclamation project was diversion of the Rimmell stream directly to the lake's outlet. Contours of the existing landscape favored such an approach, but compensation for disrupting intervening land use would have been costly. The Skinner-specific model can predict the effect of this project if, for example, it had been implemented in 1979. Figure 9 shows that diversion of the Rimmell would not have lowered [TE ] stream appreClably. Other lnlets were lmportant SS in determining total [TE' ] Because the Rimmell stream 35‘ provided a large percentage of inflow water to Skinner Lake, diverting the stream would have increased twss from 0.63 to 2.35 yr. The net effect of diverting the Rimmell would 3 3 have been to reduce the [TE ] from 63 mg m- to 45 mg m- epi ss 54 and [EFT—Ejss from 15 mg m.-3 to 11 mg m-3. This project would not have provided substantial benefit toward impro- ving lake quality. As a second example, a settling basin was constructed on the Rimmell inlet just above Skinner Lake during 1980-81 (Figure 6). This basin was intended to slow Rimmell water velocity and promote settling and removal of suspended particulate material. However, designers of the basin did not account for hydrologic relationships which dictate appropriate design. The Rimmell settling basin was too small and its effect was much less than optimum (McNabb et al., 1982). On the basis of 1979 data, if the basin removed 100% of particulate phosphorus from the water, [TE ] stream SS would have been reduced from 127 mg m"3 to 52 mg m'3, __. -3 -3 .___. [TPepi]SS from 63 mg m to 20 mg m , and [chl 313s from 15 mg m-3 to 7.5 mg m-B. As shown in Figure 9, this would represent a considerable improvement in quality at Skinner Lake. Considerations such as these, with lake-specific models, can focus attention of planners on management al- ternatives most likely to achieve the intended goals. In summary, calibrating a general lake model for a single lake requires knowledge of the lake's specific hydrologic and limnological variables. Even though data from Skinner Lake did not fit the basic form of Vollen- weider and Kerekes' model, this did not discredit the relationships they described. Rather, it indicated the Skinner Lake system had specific attributes requiring 55 attention. Total phosphorus loading for Skinner Lakewas predominantly from inlet streams. Other sources, such as atmosphere and septic tanks, had a negligible impact on relationships in the model. Flushing coefficients (0) during snowmelt and ice-off were > 1.0 at Skinner Lake in the years of this study. Coefficients in subsequent spring overturn periods were also > 1.0. [TEL] in the ice-free period was determined during the period of spring overturn just prior to stratification when 0 = 1.0, and continuing through the time of stratification. Other temperate zone lakes with high watershed area:lake area relationships may follow this pattern. Internal phosphorus loading influenced whole-lake [TP]. However, algal pro- duction in Skinner Lake was related to the [TP] of the epilimnion. [TE epi] was related to stream [TPi] in SS the the manner described by the Skinner-specific model. The addition of internal TP load to [TEi] was not necessary in modeling the system. In other stratified, eutrophic lakes, similar considerations might be appropriate. Results of this study call attention to the need for site specific information on which to base cost-effective land management decisions. LITERATURE CITED LITERATURE CITED Allen, R.J. and B.C. Kenney. 1978. Rehabilitation of eutrophic Prairie lakes in Canada. Verh. Internat. Verein. Limnol. 20:214-224. Barnes, 8.8. 1940. Discussion of analysis of runoff characteristics by O.H. Meyer. Am. Soc. Civ. Engng. Trans. 105:1-106. Chapin, J.D. and P.D. Uttormark. 1973. Atmospheric con- tributions of nitrogen and phosphorus. Tech. Rep. Wat. Resources Ctr. Univ. Wis., Madison. 35 pp. Chapra, S. 1975. Comment on: "An empirical method of estimating the retention of phosphorus of lakes" by W.B. Kirchner and P.J. Dillon. Water Resour. Res. 11:1033-1034. Chiaudani, G. and M. Vighi. 1974. The N:P ratio and tests with Selanastrum to predict eutrophication in lakes. Water Res. 8:1063-1069. Christensen, R.G. and C.D. Wilson. 1976. Best management practices for non-point source pollution control A report on a seminar. US EPA, Chicago, Illinois. 323 pp. Dillon, P.J. 1974. A critical review of Vollenweider's nutrient budget model and other related models. Water Resources Bull. 10:969-989. Dillon, P.J. 1975. The phosphorus budget of Cameron Lake, Ontario: the importance of flushing rate to the degree of eutrophy in lakes. Limnol. Oceanogr. 19: 28-39 0 Edmondson, W.T. 1961. Changes in Lake washington following an increase in nutrient income. Verh. Internat. Verein. 14:167-175. Glandon, R.P., F.C. Payne, C.D. McNabb and T.R. Batterson. 1981. A comparison of rain-related phosphorus and ntriogen loading from urban, wetland, and agricultural sources. Water Research. 15:881-887. 56 57 Hutchinson, G.E. 1957. A Treatise on Limnology. 1. Geography, Physics, and Chemistry. New York, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 1015 pp. Kirchner, W.B. and P.J. Dillon. 1975. An empirical method of estimating the retention of phosphorus in lakes. Water Resour. Res. 11:182-183. Lake, J. and J. Morrison. 1977. Environmental impact of land use on water quality. Final Report on the Black Creek Project (Summary). U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Chicago, Illinios. 94 pp. Larsen, D.P. and H.T. Mercier. 1976. Phosphorus retention capacity of lakes. Jour. Fish. Res. Ed. Canada. 33:1742-1750. McNabb, C.D., B.J. Premo, J.R. Craig and M. Siami. 1982. Project Report. A cooperative project to determine the effectiveness of land treatment in reducing the trophic state of Skinner Lake, Indiana. Submitted to US EPA,Corvallis, Oregon, Project Officer Dr. Spencer A. Peterson, for review. Nurnberg, G.K. 1982. The prediction of internal phosphorus load in lakes with anoxic hypolimnia. A contribution to the Limnology Research Centre, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada. Pearson, J. 1978. Fish management at Skinner Lake, Noble County, Indiana. Indiana Department Of Natural Resources. Division of Fish and Wildlife. Rast, W. and F. Lee. 1978. Summary analysis of the North American OECD Program on eutrophication (U.S. Portion) U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 600/3- 78-008. Ecol. Res. Ser. Corvallis, Oregon. Rawson, D.S. 1955. Morphometry as a dominant factor in the productivity of large lakes. Verh. Internat. Verein. Limnol. 12:164-175. Reckhow, K.H. 1977. Phosphorus models for lake management. Ph.D. dissertation. Harvard Univ., Cambridge, Mass. 304 pp. Reckhow, K.H. 1981. Lake data analysis and nutrient budget modeling. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, EPA-600/3-8l-011. Corvallis, Oregon. Sakamoto, M. 1966. Primary production by phytoplankton ' community in some Japanese lakes and its dependence on lake depth. Arch. Hydrobiol. 62:1-28. 58 Sawyer, C.N. 1947. Fertilization of lakes by agricultural and urban drainage.- Jour. New Engl. Water Works Assoc. 61:109-127. ' Smith, V.H. and J. Shapiro. 1981. Chlorophyll-phosphorus relations in individual lakes. Their importance to lake restoration strategies. -Environmental Science and Technology. 15(4):444-451. Strickland, J.D.H. and T.R. Parsons. 1965. A manual of sea water analysis. 2nd edition. Fish Res. Board, Ottawa, Canada. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. 1971. Methods for Chemical Analyses of Water and Wastes. Environmental Monitoring and Support Laboratory Office of Research and Development. Cincinnati, Ohio. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. 1979a. Methods for Chemical Analyses of Water and Wastes. Environmental Monitoring and Support Laboratory Office of Research and Development. Cincinnati, Ohio. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. 1979b. Limnological and socioeconomic evaluation of lake restoration projects: approaches and preliminary results. Corvallis Environmental Research Laboratory, Office of Research and Development. Corvallis, Oregon. Vollenweider, R.A. 1968. Scientific fundamentals of the eutrophication of lakes and flowing waters, with particular reference to nitrogen and phosphorus as factors in eutrophication, 192 p. Annex, 21 pp; Biblio- graphy, 61 pp. Rep. Organization for Ecomonic Coopera- tion and Development, DAS/CSI/68.27, Paris. Vollenweider, R.A. 1975. Input-output models with special reference to the phosphorus loading concept in limno- logy. Schweiz, Z. Hydrol., 37:53-84. Vollenweider, R.A. 1976.. Advances in defining critical loading levels for phosphorus in lake eutrophication. Mem. Ist. Ital. Idrobiol., 33:53-83. Vollenweider, R.A. and J.J. Kerekes. 1980. Background and summary results of the OECD cooperative program on eutrophication. p. 25-36. Proc. International Symposium on Inland Waters and Lake Restoration. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. 440/5-81-010. Washington, D.C. 59 Walker, W.W., Jr. 1977. Some analytical methods applied to lake water quality problems. Ph.D. dissertation. Harvard University, Cambridge, Mass. 528 pp. Walker, W.W., Jr. 1979. Use of hypolimnetic oxygen deple- tion rate as a trophic state index for lakes. water Resour. Res. 15(6):1463-1470. Wetzel, R.G. 1975. Limnology. W.B. Saunders & Co., Philadelphia. 743 pp. , APPENDICES APPENDIX I 60 .Amblmhmflv peace mwuoocooumm on» HON oucomu cowuauwmwooum can niaumonoms 3on Eoouum .HI¢ ousmflm 61 034. (:5 22. >32 E4 mg). mle_ 23.. DMD >02 #00 a d a q . - v IO (”49) NOllVlldIDBHd 9‘ Tr __ - Amhlmhm: Limoozwomo 30am Emonum .NI¢ ousmflm 63 q- [‘0 N 1 (w9)NOIlVlld133tld , cod .2. 22. as 02 lwfllll . POO armed: ”1.59m .U. a; _ TE 0 . IO LO (C (.94) BOHVHOSIO o 9. no SE 00— 64 .xaeamnmfl. peace boosmubeouo one “Ow ouooou cowpmuwiwooui one niaumouo>o 30am anwum .mu¢ musmwm 65 re a. (”43) NOIlVildlDBtld 02 (5.. 22. >32 mi< 245. mm“. 23. omo >02 .50 d q q 4 a a .. _ 94 q .Jlll A l (on armamsemmsméuomo moo. . G U (S . m hon. V . no A m MOON” I .. - homm( - Room T __ r __ :fiE 66 .Amblmnmav umacw umemz mnu new Uncomu :0flumuwmwomum flaw :mmumounwn 30am Emwuum .wlfi musmflm 67 q- M N (”43) NOLLVildIDEHd re? 5.. 22, __ ___L >52 mm< as). mm... 266 owe . >02 . .50 . 85¢th mmgmg _. :. Li. E In N O 10 ‘19 (15' l ) ESHVHOSIG 0 92 mm— Om— 68 .Amhlmhmav Gamma uwouo man new Uncomu coaumufimflomum can :mmumOH©>5 30am Emmuum .mn4 9.33m 69 v . ['0 (”49) NOLLVildIDBBd 9‘ Q3 42. 22. >32 . an? . KS2 r I fimm... 23. 3 AmNnmNm: 2320. Hmomo —_ D owe >02 .50 2 000— 000m 000m 000V coon 0000 ( $5“ I) EQHVHOSIG 70 .ANmmH. umacw oEEH wan How ouoomu coaumuflmwomum can namumouc»: 30Hmafimmuww .ou< musmfim 71 (W9) NOLLVLIdIOBHd CO N F {Fr—E. _ _ :Fl .5... 23.. >52 In; :52 L 4 L .U 00.0w Nomw Adm—25:1 In: 000? l 0000 (Sn) BSHVHOSIO 72 .AmmmH. umacw mwuoucmoumm map How choomu coflumuwmwvmum Dam smuumouv>n 30Hw Emmuum .hld munmwm 73 ('3 (m9) NOLLVJJdIOSHd N IL? _ LE 5.. 22. ><2 $2 5.2 moo. «2: mmmoozmog: .loou noon (Sm seam-109:0 74 .Ammmav umacfl macowm mnu Hem Choomu cofiumuflmflomum cam nmmnmouvmn 30Hm Emmmum .mu¢ musmflm IR. .2... i.il.::a..,.:..,!! L. (“33) NOILVLIdIOSHd [LEE _ 42. 22.. ><§ mm< :32 .2} N00? m...DD.E A I A n A A A L411 LA 2F. mm on ms 00p (9m asaVHosm 76 .Ammmdv umacw ummsmuumouo mnu How ouoomu sowumuwmfiomum cam nmmumouc>n 30Hm Emwnum .ml¢ musmflm 77 N 0 (“35) NOLLVJJdIOBHd .53 22. >52 mm< m52 ma< :52 “one. . hooow o ,. 32 22mg taco Nr ”0000 .- hoooc . 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