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I“ ,I -' w . x 1 :94} h'l l " ’Jfl' 3"“ .‘.‘: ‘t -l D I ‘ L‘NJI‘I',‘ l' :',£h\slh ' x. u. ’ 'p- ' y. ‘ NIVER RTysu H!!!“ W!!! !!!!!!! ! 312,193106450541 AL‘... __.____ ‘— .— LIBRARY Michigan State University fHQq’E r1! r This is to certify that the thesis entitled A SYSTEMS APPROACH TO THE PROBLEM OF EXPANSION OF MIDDLE SCHOOL FACILITIES IN RURAL TURKEY presented by Ibrahim Rifat Okcabol has been accepted towards fulfillment of the requirements for ~PhTD——————deflmwin-Saconda;y- Education and Curriculum (Social Philosopyical Foundations) Major professor/0 Kenneth L. Neff Date—fimw— 0-7639 W: . 25¢ per day per ite- RETURMNG LIBRARY MATERIALS: Place in book return to remove charge fm circulation records A SYSTEMS APPROACH TO THE PROBLEM OF EXPANSION OF MIDDLE SCHOOL FACILITIES IN RURAL TURKEY By I. Rifat Okcabol A DISSERTATION Submitted to . Michigan State University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY Department of Social and Philosophical Foundations 1980 ABSTRACT A SYSTEMS APPROACH TO THE PROBLEM OF EXPANSION OF MIDDLE SCHOOL FACILITIES IN RURAL TURKEY BY I. Rifat Okcabol The Problem Turkey has rural problems in common with other deve10ping countries. Rural people 'generally are illiterate and poor. There is a scarcity of resources, allocation of existing resources is inadequate. and the average amount of schooling is low. Expansion of five year education into eight year education is now required by the Turkish national Law of Basic Education, but for a large number of primary graduates 'there are not enough middle schools in rural areas, and the Turkish education system is not currently able to meet the demand for this educational expansion. The Purpose The main purpose of the study was to develop a model to study the costs of expanding the existing school system to one providing eight years of schooling for rural people. A systems approach technique is utilized to I. Rifat Okcabol deve10p a model to investigate: (1) the cost of expanding school facilities and personnel in rural settings, and (2) some alternative solutions to these expansion problems. ~Another purpose was to illustrate how a model of a system can be constructed and used to approach. analyze and search for solutions to educational planning problems. The Simulation Model A mathematical model was developed to represent the operation of the rural education system as a collection of interacting sectors: students. personnel, physical facilities, and control. The model represents the system through the values of parameters and program variables which are descriptive of the real situation at discrete points in time. For each sector, a set of equations was. developed to describe the relationships among the services produced and resources required. A second set of equations describes required expenditures for rural education. A six-step procedural algorithm was developed to define possible school sites and potential students in a given subprovince. A computer program reads parameters of the model and descriptive data. and produces a variety of reports for each school within a subprovince. and subtotals are aggregated to represent each subprovince and province in I. Rifat Okcabol the experiment. Application of the Model The model was applied to ‘Kayseri province to demontrate its utilization. The application consisted of an execution of the computer program to produce selected information for each school site. and summary information for each subprovince and province. Findings obtained from the experimental run can be summarized as: 1. The requirements of providing busing and boarding services for a given number of students are reported along with a unit cost comparison to enable the implementor/decision maker to compare costs of specific items for these services. 2. Many questions about cash flow, land and building size, personnel, utilities, enrollment. etc.. for providing expansion can be answered from the set of tables obtained from the computer output. 3. A variety of questions can be answered by running a series of experiments. and by changing the values that some parameters of the model take on (costs, population, school, demography, student distribution, etc.) A. A number of experiments can be conducted. when a parameter is difficult to estimate. applying a minimum or a maximum value to understand its effect and estimate I. Rifat Okcabol it better. It is hoped that this study may serve to encourage widespread applications of the systems approaches to educational problems in Turkey and elsewhere. DEDICATED TO Children who never had the Joy of going to school ii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The author wishes to express his particular appreciation to Dr. Martin G. Keeney. his project director and committee member, who gave his time and encouraging advice thrbughout the struggles from which this study originated. ' The author is very grateful to his professors, members of his doctoral committee. for their assistance and help in many ways. These include Dr. Ben A. Bohnhorst, Dr. Kenneth L. Neff. and Dr. Richard L. Featherstone. The writer is grateful to his wife Aysel Okcabol, for her patience, during the study,. Sincere appreciation is extended to the Turkish Government for providing scholarship which enabled the writer to initiate his program of graduates studies abroad. 0 iii TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES . . . . . . LIST OF FIGURES . . . . . Chapter 1. INTRODUCTION . . . . II. III. VI. Education in Turkey . Need for the Study . Purpose of the Study . Operational Working Procedure Organization of the Study Summary . . . . . Foot Notes . . . . REVIEW OF LITERATURE . General System Theory Systems Approach . . Systems Approach in Education Summary . . . . . Foot Notes . . . . A SYSTEMS APPROACH . . Needs Analysis . . System Identification in General Problem Formulation . Generation of System Alternatives Developing a Simulation Model The Mathematical Model Summary . . . . . Foot Notes . . . . APPLICATION OF THE MODEL Application to a Province Evaluation of the Model Summary . . . . . iv Page vi vii d 101 10” Chapter V. SUMMARY'AND CONCLUSION Introduction of the Problem Review of Literature A Systems Approach . Application of Conclusion APPENDIX A APPENDIX B APPENDIX C BIBLIOGRAPHY the Model Page 106 106 107 108 111 11a 117 12A 130 151 LIST OF TABLES Page Papulation by Year and Location . . . . . . 33 Student Statistics in Turkey 1973—197“ . . . 38 Population and Number of Graduates for Akkisla . 9O Busing Results for Akkisla . . . . . . . 91 Boarding Results if Busing Students Are Boarded 91 Results of Expansion in Akkisla . . . . . 92 Unaccommodated Primary Graduates . . . . . 93 Population Comparison Between Elbasi and Karakaya 94 yearly Totals for Subprovince Bunyan . . . . 95 Yearly Totals for Subprovince Subpr2 . . . . 100 Yearly Totals for Subprovince Subpr3 . . . . 101 vi LIST OF FIGURES Turkish Educational System . . . . . . . Ratio of Enrollment to School Age Population . Interacting Variables in Rural Middle Schools . Basic Structure of Rural Education . . . . Characteristics of a School Site . . . . . Characteristics of Busing Distance. . . . . Application of Algorithm to Bunyan Subprovince Number of Places Provided in Bunyan . . . . Number of Places Provided in Subpr2 . . . . Number of Places Provided in Subpr3 . . . . Unit Cost of Education . . . . . . . . vii Page 39 “3 59 65 67 68 96 97 98 99 CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION The main purpose of this study is to examine ‘the expansion of the existing Turkish school system to one providing eight years of schooling for rural people. A systems approach will be used to develop a model and investigate: (1) Problems of expanding school facilities and personnel in rural settings, and (2) Some alternative solutions to these problems. This chapter states why and how this study was conducted. and provides some background information about the Turkish education system. Education in Turkey The Turkish - Constitution holds the state responsible for providing its citizens with education. and the Ministry of Education, with its general directorates and various offices, carries this responsibility. In its efforts to fulfill the. administrative function at the primary school level, the Ministry of Education cooperates with the provincial authorities (see Appendix A for definitions of terms). The Turkish school system consists of three years of preschool, five years of primary. six- years of secondary (in two parts, middle school and lycee). and two or more years of postsecondary education. . Preschooling exists only in large cities, and with only a small enrollment. compared to ‘the total school papulation. .Compulsory coeducational primary schools are common throughout the country. Secondary education is composed of general-academic education and vocational-technical education, but the Law of BaSic Education requires the integration of primary and middle school education into basic education. Postsecondary education includes two different groups of institutions: the universities, and various higher schools (teacher training schools, school of tourism, etc.). The education system in Turkey has two main Operations: the administration of its component parts, and the production of materials and trained personnel. The production activities include training in various higher schools explained above, and manufacturing various tools such as laboratory items, school furnishings etc.. at instructional material centers. Figure 1 is a descriptive diagram which attempts to portray the components of the entire system. Io..ao 30:02.1- 4..acs— .. muse: 1r ‘- ce.l: O: 5P leg-d .0 :08 Min. Of. Ot PG PGD PL Pr. Sch Sec SPO TT TTG TTL TTT UG UGT UL Unds. Explanation for Parameters and Abbreviations in Figure 1 Additional entries Autonomous school graduates AG who teach AG who do not teach Available teacher pool Autonomous Control decisions of related components Primary school entry Implementation decisions of related components Director Education Feedback information General Directorates Governor Higher Instructional materials Interior Lycee graduates LG who Join labor market Middle school graduates Ministry MG who join the labor market Offices Other Primary school graduates Purchased goods PG who Join the labor market Primary School Secondary State Planning Organization Teacher training Teacher training school graduates TTG who Join the labor market TTG who teach University graduates UG who teach UG who join the labor market Undersecretary to the Ministry of Education Education Prior to the Formation of the Republic The Republic of Turkey descends historically from the Ottomans whose forefathers were Oguz Turks. Oguz Turks were primarily nomads, and their education system was informal, regional, and partial to Oguz tribal culture, lacking books, schools, and teachers [1]. After the 11th century when Turks converted to Islam, and especially during the early centuries of the Ottoman period, education in Turkey was solely Islamic in nature. Primary education was under the control of the ulema (religious leaders) and all attempts at reform failed. _ In 182%, for the first time in Turkish .history, Sultan Mahmut II decreed that primary education was the state's responsibility and he established the Ministry of Education. Despite this decree, the ulema's control over primary education continued for a few decades more [2]. When a series of reforms took place in the middle of the ninteenth century, the Ottomans turned to France for inspiration and guidance. Primary education was made compulsory by law in 1869. Before the Ottoman empire collapsed in 1923 there were primary schools in most urban centers. Every large city also had one or more middle schools, and some cities had lycees. However most rural communities did not have any school at all. 6 Education Since the Establishment of the Republic of Turkey Immediately after the new Republic was established in 1923, law no.u30 incorporated_ the entire education system under the Ministry of Education. Constitutional Law No. ”91 was then enacted stating that primary education was compulsory for all Turks, and free in state schools [3]. i The early years of. the Republic were an institutional building period, 90 percent of the population were illiterate, and education was designed not as a means for mass education but rather as a first step on a ladder to secondary and higher education. Programs of primary schools were designed to be uniform throughout the country. In the 1950's there were enrollment increases. During this decade enrollment in primary, secondary, and vocational-technical education increased 100 percent, 230 percent, and ”0 percent respectively. During the first planning period in 1963, educational policy did not change, but at the beginning of the third five-year planning period (1973-77) educational problems started receiving special attention. Educational Administration The Ministry of Education has full control over Turkish education. However, all universities and some higher schools have academic and, to a certain extent, administrative autonomy. The General Directorate for primary education controls primary schools through school inspectors located at local education. offices, with the cooperation of provincial authorities. Primary ‘school teachers are assigned to provinces and are then distributed among the schools by provincial authorities. The General Directorate for secondary education is directly in charge of each individual middle school and lycee. Secondary school inspectors are based at the Ministry of Education and visit schools for a short period of inspection every few years. Secondary school teachers are assigned to the particular schools directly by the Ministry of Education. Schools are administered by school principals who are responsible for ongoing school operations, student affairs, and evaluation of teachers. There are educational committees in every province, subprovince and village to advise administrators and help school authorities on primary education problems. Teachers By Constitutional law no private higher schools or teacher training schools are permitted. Various types of teacher training schools are Operated by the Ministry of Education through several general directorates, namely for religious education, teacher training, vocational and technical higher education, girls technical education, and boys technical education. Any post secondary school graduate may also be hired as a teacher by the Ministry of Education. Financial Resources The national budget is the main source .of funds for educational expenses. The Department of Treasury supplies education's share following approval of the national budget in the Parliament. Another small source of funds is a portion of municipal income. Needs for Study Turkey has rural problems in common with other developing countries. Rural people generally are illiterate and poor. Although the expansion of five year education into eight year education is required by the Law of Basic Education and supported by Turkish educators and The Turkish State Planning Organization, there is, a scarcity of resources, and allocation of existing resources is inadequate. The rural population is larger than the urban population, but the average amount of schooling is lower and at the present time the Turkish education system is not able to meet the educational needs of rural people and provide them equal opportunities for education. Nationwide, #0 percent of the related age group receive middle school education. The third five-year plan aims at expanding this ratio to seventy five percent over the next two decades [4]. Purpose of the Study The main pupose here is to develop a model with which to study the costs and resources required for the expansion of education in rural Turkey to eight years. In general, the model should assist the researcher to: 1. Investigate expansion in rural settings, 2. Investigate some alternative solutions to these problems. In particular the use of 'busingl and 'boarding' to make schools more accessible to school age children. 'The working hypothesis for the present study is that a systems approach for analyzing the problems might help to: 1. Understand the overall system and its components better, 2. Identify where critical decisions have to be made, and 3. Identify the kinds of data that are needed. ' 10 Operational Working Procedures In order to develop a system model aimed at helping to solve the expansion problems in rural areas, the Operational procedures cited below will be followed: 1. Needs analysis: provide an' explicit description of existing needs, 2. System identification: find the variables, and interrelationships among them, which will represent the behavior of the system, 3. Problem formulation: develop an explicit statement of what the system must do in order to provide the expansion, A. Generation of system alternatives: include alternative ways of structuring and operating the system, 5. Simulation: test some alternatives by use of the computer. The model is a quantitative description of the mechanisms by. which resources are transformed into physical facilities for expanding middle school education for rural people. It is applicable to one or more individual schools, and provides accumulated totals at the subprovince or province level. No attempt is made in this study to define the academic goals or quality of education, but only to analyze costs for furnishing the facilities needed for expansion. 11 Demographic and other data for the model have been gathered mainly from gOvernmental agencies. Educated guesses are used to supply any currently missing information. Accuracy of data is nOt a serious matter in this'study, since it is the construction and operation of a model that is of primary concern. The implementation of the model in a given situation will of course require complete and more accurate data. Organization of the Study This study is organized as follows: Chapter I includes a description of education in Turkey, the need for a study, the purpose of this study, and the Operational working procedures. Chapter II is a review of related .literature in terms of general systems theory, systems approach, and systems approach in education. Chapter III is devoted to working procedures to help solve the problems of expanding physical facilities and personnel for rural middle schools and to develop a simulation model which can be used in this effort. Chapter IV describes the experimental runs and application of the model. Chapter V contains a summary of the work and its conclusions. 12 Summary The motivation for this study is to examine the costs of expanding the existing Turkish school system to one providing eight years of schooling for rural people. A systems approach will be used to develop a model to investigate (1) costs of expanding school facilities and personnel in rural settings, and (2) Some alternative solutions to these expansion problems. It is expected that the model and techniques of this study may help decision-makers analyze and solve educational problems. It is also an illustration of how a model can be constructed and used. FOOT NOTES [1] Ziya Gokalp, Turkish _Nationalism and Western Civilization: Selected Essays of Ziya Gokalp Edited by Niyazi Berkes, New York: Colombia University Press, 1959. ' [2] Fazlur Rahman, Turkey's Islamic Heritage: ,A Histrical-Conceptual Analaysis. Submitted for the Conference on the Republic of Turkey, 1923-1973. University of Chicago, Nov. 5-7, 1973. ' Fay Kirby, Turkiyede Koy Enstituleri (Village Institues in Turkey.) Published Dissertation, Colombia University, 1960, Ankara: Ruzgarli Matbaasi, 1962. [3] UNESCQ‘Norld Survey of Education. Vol. II, Primary Education, Switzerland: UNESCO, 1958. [A] State Planning Organization, Republic of Turkey, Third Five Year Development Plan 1973-1977 Ankara: 1973. CHAPTER II REVIEW OF RELATED LITERATURE 4A review of related literature was conducted to identify and examine the systems approach as a methodology for solving educational problems. The entire body of the literature is very extensive and diverse in scope. Therefore the section which follows is not intended to be a comprehensive review of the "systems approach", but a framework for using a systems approach concept in education. Illustrative types of educational studies which have employed this concept are cited. The aim of this chapter is to establish a background for the model developed here for studying the expansion of rural education in Turkey. General Systems Theory The development of general systems theory by Bertalanffy was based on his synthesis of the similarities he observed in various disciplines, such as physics, chemistry, biology, economics, and gestalt psychology. 'Bertalanffy [1] emphasized the problems Of organization, wholeness, and' dynamic interactions in his synthesis. With respect to what constitutes a system, he said: "System" is a model of general nature, that is, a conceptual analog of certain rather universal traits of observed entities... A system may be defined as a set of elements 13 1H standing in interaction among themselves and with the environment [2]. Various viewpoints toward systems theory have expressed by numerous authors. The position of Young Now general systems theory is unusual in the context because although it too may be described as a body of orienting theory or an approach, it can also be taken as a general theoretical framework providing an organized context for a variety of other more specific theories [3]. Bertalanffy suggests: The goal of a general systems theory is clearly circumscribed. It aims at a general "wholeness" of the entire system in which many variables interact and in which their organization produces strong interactions. It does not deal with isolated process [A]. Boulding states: General systems theory is a name which has come into use to describe a level of theoretical modelbuilding which lies somewhere between highly generalized construction of pure mathematics and the specific theories of the specialized disciplines [5]. ‘ been is: MesaroVic [6] concludes: general systems theory is then a theory of general models. General systems theory is considered as the theoretical framework or global perspective that provides an organized context. This is compatible with Knezevich's definitions for the terms "theory" and "system". A theory (model) is a cluster of interlocking and interactive concepts systematized into an abstracted intellectual pattern capable of interpreting generalizable trends and interrelationships that prevail within a set of varied facts within reality (or a part of it) [7]. 15 Systems Approach There has been a develOping body of concepts called the systems approach that is useful to describe, 'analyze, predict, or at least obtain knowledge of a system. A systems approach is not new, and there is evidence which suggests that much of modern systems theory has been borrowed from the past. Hare reports: The system concept is as modern as ancient Egypt, where a crude form of today's system theory played a role in the construction operation of the pyramids [8]. Numerous strategies have evolved for systems approach, but there is no single approach. Pfeiffer offers the following: There is no such thing as the systems approach if that implies the existence of a formula or a special set of rules for handling problems. A wide range of procedures are available, and which turns out to be the most helpful depends on the nature of the problem under investigation [9]. McGivney [10] stated that, fundamentally, systems approach is concerned with elements such as (1) quantifiable objectives and alternatives, (2) their costs and benefits, and (3) an adequate time period for analysis. Blendinger further argued that because of changing circumstances of the times, understanding the concept of systems approach is important in order to comprehend the phenomenon of change. Thus he pointed out that the systems approach: is a way of seeing one's environment. It is an attitude of mind. The concerns of the systems 16 approach are with interrelated parts and with how these parts together accomplish the purpose for which the system exists. The techniques of analysis and design are central to systems approach [11]. The technique of the systems approach can be stated as comprising three elements: (1) analysis, (2) design, and (3) documentation. Hartley indicates: The concept (essential feature) of a systems analysis may be defined as an orderly way of identifying and ordering the differentiated components, relationships, processes, and other properties of anything that may be conceived as a unified whole [12]. Manetsch and Park state: We define the "systems approach" as a problem solving methodology which began with a tentatively identified set of needs and has as its result an operating system for efficiently satisfying a, perhaps redefined, set of needs which are acceptable or "good" in light of trade-offs among needs and resource limitations that are accepted as constraints in the given setting. There are two prominent attributes of this approach: (1) it overtly seeks to ‘include all factors which are important in arriving at a "good" solution to the given problem and (2) it makes use of quantitative models to assist in making rational decisions at many levels where it is appropriate to use such tools [13]. Recognizing that there is no single systems approach and that the type of the problem determines what will be included in the study, it is nevertheless important to identify a generalized procedure. A number of important principles, according to Pfeiffer [1A] are: 1. Identification of boundaries of a prob- lem. (Define the problem.) 2. Specification of subfunctions and alter- natives in relationship to the system. 3. The use of a model to clarify and to 17 yield information. A. Identification of the systems approach as a cyclical and continuing process. The conceptual perspective of the systems approach is well stated by Laszlo: The systems approach does not restrict the scientist to one set of relationships as his object of investigation; he can switch levels, corresponding to his shifts in research interest. A system science can look at cell or an atom as a system, or it can look at the organ, the organism, the family, the community, the nation, the economy, and the ecology as systems, and it can view even the biosphere as such. A system in one perspective is a subsystem in another. But the systems view always treats systems .as integrated wholes of their subsidiary components and never as the mechanistic aggregate of parts in isolable relation [15]. One of the advantages of a systems approach is modeling the real world for the purpose of systems analysis and design. In general, modeling is the approxi- mated representation of the real world. The concept of mOdel is indicated by Ackoff and Sasieni, as follows: Models are representations of reality. If they were as complex and difficult to control as reality, there would be no advantage in their use. Fortunately, we can usually construct models that are much simpler than reality and still be able to use them to predict and explain phenomena with a high degree of accuracy. The reason is that although a very large number of variables may be required to predict a phenomenon with perfect accuracy, a small number of variables usually account for most of it. The trick, of course, is to find the right variables and the correct relationships among them [16]. Koenig, Keeney, and Zemach's description for mathematical model is: Sets of equations which show the 18 interdependence of the sets of complementary variables that characterize’ the process or processes under consideration. If the equations are all algebraic in form (linear or nonlinear), the model is characterized as a static model in contrast to a dynamic model which contains at least one differential (difference) equation of any order. If all differential (difference) equations in the model are presented in first-order form, the model is referred to as a state-space model. Dynamic models of this latter form are the most tractable mathematically and computationally. For this reason, they have evolved as the basis for analysis, simulation, control, and optimization concepts and procedures in modern system theory. A state-space model describes the behavioral characteristics of a system as a set of relationships among time functions representing its inputs, outputs and internal state. For discrete time points, the equations have the general form . x(t+1) = f(x(t),a(t),b(t),c(t)) y(t) '= g(x(t),a(t),b(t),c(t)) where x(t) are system states a(t) are parameters b(t) are exogenous variables c(t) are control inputs y(t) are response variables x(t+1), a(t), b(t), c(t), and y(t) are finite x(t) and x(t+1) are said to represent the internal state of the system at times t and (t+1), respectively, and Y(t) represents the output or response of the system to its state, parameters, and inputs at time t. If a model of this form is to be derived for a socio-economic system, the total system must be viewed as a collection of interacting subsystems or components no more or less real than the system of interconnected springs and levers in a machine. A model of any such system is developed systematically from the structural features of the system, presented in terms of mathematical models of the components themselves, and a mathematical model of their interconnection pattern. The fundamental axiom Of system theory is that the mathematical models of the components identified in the structure are independent of how the components are interconnected. This implies that the various components can be conceptually removed from the system and studied in isolation and that their corresponding models 19 serve as " building blocks" sufficiently simple to be modeled. It is precisely this feature that makes system theory a universal tool of science [17]. One may construct models to predict future events. Such models are presented as "simulation models." According to Naylor simulation involves "setting up a model of a real situation and performing experiments on the model." [18] simulation models are mathematical models which consist of a combination of ingredients such as: components, variables, parameters, functional relationships, constraints, -and criterion functions. According to Shannon a simulation model is an experimental and applied methodology which seeks to: 1. Describe the behavior of systems; . 2. Construct theories or hypotheses that account for the Observed behavior; 3. Use these theories to predict future behavior, that is, the effects that will be produced by changes in the system ‘or in its method of Operation [19]. Through manipulating controllable variables in the models and iteration loops in a simulation program, one may obtain a number of alternative solutions to a problem. Systems Approach in Education Mann [20] advanced the notion that in terms of the general systems theory, a school can be recognized as a system since it has the following six elements found in all systems: (1) sets Of interrelated Objects, (2) an 20 environment, (3) inputs, (A) process. (5) output/outcome, and (6) feedback. He further stated that component subsystems are generally utilized to regulate the responses of open systems to the demands of the environment. Knezevich lists ten factors which indicate why systems approach is imperative for improvement of education. This list includes: (1) Clear delineation of long- and short- range objectives capable of being translated into Operationally meaningful activities and subsequent evaluation. - (2) Recognition of the dynamic nature of Objectives and sensing when new ones have emerged or when a reordering of priorities among existing Objectives is imperative. (3) Recognition of change as normal in viable organizations operating within an environment in ferment and creation of methods to facilitate prudent change. (4) Generation of alternative means to utilizing resources to attain objectives. (5) Creation of models to study part or all of the system. - _ (6) Utilization of quantitatively oriented tools and procedures in analysis of systems. (7) Deduction of a high priority in the time schedule of top‘echelon administration to planning and programming activities. (8) Employment of interdisciplinary teams of specialists in problem -analysis, new systems design, Operations evaluation and the like. (9) Consideration of coordination of the ever growing number of educational specialists within the system as a matter of high-echelon concern. (10) Implementation of sophisticated, objective, and scientifically oriented procedure in decision making [21]. The majority of the educational literature that was reviewed emphasizes the application of the systems approach, usually referred to as systems analysis, to 21 education. The concepts described by most authors were those derived from generalists, such as Churchman and Bertalanffy [22]. Some literature by Immegart: Immegart and Pilecki; and McManama [23], [provide particular terminology for usual proceSses. System analysis in education has been emphasized by such authors as Banghart, Knezevich, Kaufman, and Read [2”]. Blauberg, Sadowsky and Yudin put some definitions in the following way. He define the systems approach as explicit description of procedures of representing objects as systems and of methods for their investigation (description, explanation, prediction, design, etc.) General systems theory will be interpreted as an interdisciplinary field of scientific research whose goals are: (a) to work out generalized models of systems: (b) to elaborate a logico-methodological apparatus for describing the functioning and behavior of systems objects; (0) to formulate generalized systems theories of various types, including theories of systems' dynamics, goal-oriented behavior, historical development, hierarchic' structure, and .control processes. Finally, systems analysis will be taken to mean systems methodology for the solution of management problems [25]. The emphasis in educational literature on the use of the systems approach has been in administration (management) and instruction. Attempts to implement the systems approach in the instructional systems are represented by the studies of Cogswell, O'Neill and Blodgett [26]. The systems approach in school administration is applicable to areas of school finance, personnel management, school facilities, and other administrative 22 functions. A major emphasis has been in the area of school finance, with attention to the planning, programming, budgeting systems (PPBS). Clark, O'Brien, and Case [27] applied systems approach to develop a model for urban education. The model has the capability to handle the introduction of known data such as available money, staff allocation, and present school plant. Another general model is the effort by Reisman [28] to develop a mathematical model to describe the flow of students in and out of a university system and to follow the progress of students through the system. The development of a descriptive model of this type forfeits detail, but enables the educator to observe the interrelationships Of several subsystems. A simulation model called "Comprehensive Analytical Models for Planning in UniverSity Systems (Campus)" has been built for the faculty of Arts and Sciences at the University of Toronto to present the implementations of resource allocations as related to enrollments, resource demands, Space requirments, and budgetary calculations. As with many applications, "CAMPUS" involves mathematical models, information systems, and planning, programming, budgeting. Judy and Levine offer the following summary of the capability of the model: The model simulates university Operations over a time period of any length. Loaded into 23 the computers, the model accepts descriptions of the university's structure and statements of the levels of activities that the university is expected to perform. With these inputs, the model computes the resulting resource requirements of staff, space, ,materials, and money. These requirements are displayed by several computer-prepared reports and graphs [29]. The work at Toronto is no longer a pure research effort .because it has been implemented as a normal part of the .operations of the University through the Office of Institutional Research. Koenig, Keeney, and Zemach [30] develOped a theoretical systems model to predict the resource requirements at an institution of higher education for_ various administrative policies and enrollments. They considered financial aid as one of thei control variables in an institution of higher education and predicted the enrollment as the sum of three components: transition enrollment, new enrollment and the enrollment induced by financial aid. The university system is viewed as consisting of five major [sectors or subsystems namely; student, academic production, non-academic prodbction, personnel, and physical facilities sectors. These components are governed by the "administrative control" component which is the source of policy and human decision. The Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (WICHE) is a public agency through which 13 2” western states work on common problems in higher education. The National Center for Higher Education Management Systems (NCHEMS) at WICHE has developed a Resource Requirments Prediction 'Model (RRPM-1), an institution-oriented, computer-based simulation model that projects the cost of operating a college campus over a ten year time frame. RRPM-1 may be viewed as a management tool that will assist higher education decision makers in 6 understanding the future implications of planning decisions. ‘ The structure of RRPM-1 is stated by Hussein as follows: 1. RRPM-1 is a deterministic and descriptive simulation model. It is not stochastic, nor is it an optimization model. 2. RRPM-1 is a cost accounting model. It does not consider revenue or benefits. 3. Student flow and faculty flow are not generated within the model. Student enrollment is exogenous, and faculty is calculated by using staffing coefficients for faculty. A. The results of RRPM-1 (as with any model) are a product of its structural relationships (assumed to be continuous and linear in most cases) and of its input values, which are in some cases crucial and yet difficult to predict [31]. To evaluate RRPM-1 Gulko, and Hussain state their findings as follows: RRPM locates inaccuracies in information and forces us to ask how can we correct our input... RRPM has great potential as a planning tool that can improve resource management in higher education... RRPM has its greatest potential as a campus planning tool. In fact, one of the greatest benefits that may come from the model is a medium for improving communication among all levels of decision-making process [32]. Other current projects at the center include a student 25 flow model to chart curricular response to projected student population needs, and space analysis manuals to assist in the evaluation of needs and requirements for physical expansion of institutions. In his dissertation, Akalin [33] used the systems approach in analyzing the Turkish education system and developed a mathematical model for approximating the state of the system related to need and supply of secondary core subject teachers at a given time. Other attempts are 0 represented by the studies of Keeney, Koenig, Van Dusen, Ecevit, Kwak, Crawford, and Dunbar [39]. Summary The prime contribution 'of systems concepts to science and technology is to present a comprehensive way of thinking that is applicable to any field of knowledge. Many authors in various disciplines indicate that the systems approach has been of value in understanding specific systems and providing another viewpoint sin problem solving. Another advantage is that it enables researchers to represent the real world by means of modelling. Hence, since education is recognized as a system itself, a systems approach may be utilized effectively in solving educational problems too. The aim of the present study is to extend the systems approach in education to 26 the problem ‘of expanding Turkish education in rural settings. FOOT NOTES [1] Ludwing Von Bertalanffy, "General Systems Theory," [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] General Systems: Yearbook of the Society for General Systems Research I. 1956, pp. 1-10. Ludwing Von Bertalanffy, Perspective on General Systems Theory. New York: George Braziller, Inc., 1975, p. 159. O. R. Young, "A Survey of General Systems Theory," General _Systems: Yearbook of the Society for General Systems Research. IX, 196“, p. 2H1. Bertalanffy, pp, cit., p. 122. Kenneth Boulding, "General Systems Theory-the Skeleton of Science," Management Science. 2(3), 1956, p.197. Mihajlo D. Mesarovic, "Foundations for A General Systems Theory," Views on General Systems Theory. Mesarovic M. D. (ed.), New York: John Wiley and Sons, Inc., 196“, p. u. ' Knezevich, Stephen J. dministration of Publi Education. New York: Harper and Row, 1969. PP. 510-511. Van Court Hare, Systems Analysis: A Diagnostic Approach. New York: Harcourt, Brace and World, 1967, p. 22. John Pfeiffer, New Look at Education. Forward by Henry Chauncey, New York: Odyssey Press, 1968, p. 12. J. H. McGivney, "The New -Systems- Approaches to Resource Allocation Decisions: A Second Look." Educational Technology, 1969. 9. PP. 31-3“. J. Blendinger, "ABC's of the Systems Approach," Education. 1969, p. 56. [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] 27 Harry J. Hartley, Educational Planning- Programming- Budgeting; i Syeieme Approach. Englewood Cliffs, N. J.: Prentice Halls, Inc., 1968, p. 28. Thomas J. Manetsch, and Gerald L. Park, Systems Apelysie end Simulation With Applications to Economic epd ecial ystems Part 1. E. Lansing: epartment of Electrical Engineering and Systems Science, Michigan State University, 1964, pp. 2-3. Pfeiffer, op. cit. Ervin Laszlo, 123 Systems View of the World-the Natural Philosophy of the New Developments in the Science . New York: George Braziller, 1972, pp. 1u-150 Russel L. Ackoff, and Maurice W. Sasieni, Fundamentals of O erations Research. New York: John Wiley and Sons, Inc., 1968, p. 60. ' H. E. Koenig, and M. G. Keeney, and R. Zemach, A Systems Model {or Management, Planning and Resource Allocation in Institutions of Highe: EQHQEIIQD- Final Report Project 0-518, National Science Foundation, E. Lansing, Mich.: Division of Engineering Research, Michigan State University, 1968. pp. 2"“. Thomas H. Naylor, et al., Computer Simulation Technigpes. New York: John .Wiley and Sons, Inc., 1968, p. 2. Rober E. Shannon, Systems SimulatienI ipe in; and Science. Englewood Cliffs: Prentice Hall, Inc., 1975, p. 2. D. Mann, Policy Decision-Making_in Education.. New York: Teacher College Press, 1975. Knezevich, o . cit., p. 597. C. West Churchman, "On the Design of Educational Systems," Audiovisual Institution. 10, May, 1965. C. West Churchman, Ipe Systems Approach. New York: Dell Publishing co., Inc., 1968. Ludwing Von Bertalanffy, "General Systems Theory," General Systems: Yearbook of the Society for General Systems Research. I. 1956, pp. 1—10. [23] [2A] 28 Ludwing Von Bertalanffy. W- New York: George Braziller, Inc., 1968. Glenn L. Immegart, "Systems Theory and Taxonomic Inquiry into Organizational Behavior in Education," Developing Taxonomies of Or anizational Behavior in .Edecetional Administration. E. D. Griffters Zed.) Chicago: Rand Mcnally and Co., 1969. pp. 165-238. Glenn L. Immegart, and J. Pilecki Francis. 55 Introduction to Systems for the Educational AdministratorI Reading. Mass: Addison- Wesley Publishing Co., 1973. John McManama, Syetems Analysis for Effective School Administration. New York: Parker Publishing Co., Inc., 1971. Frank W. Banghart, Edecetional Systems Analysi . New York: the Macmillan Co., 1969. Roger A. Kaufman, Educational S stem Plannin . Englewood Cliffs, N. J.: Prentice Hall, 1972. Edwin A. Read, "Systems Analysis, System Analysis and [25] [26] Problem Analysis," Educational Technology. May, 197”. pp. 35-39. I. V. Blauberg, and V. N. Sadovsky, and E. G. Yudin, Systems Theory. Philosophical and Methodological Problems. The Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, Translation Into English Progress Publishers, 1977. pp. 33-3“. John F. Cogswell, "Systems Technology in Education," Man Machines Systems in Education. ed. By J. W. Loughary, New York and london: Harper Row, 1966. Jane A. O'Neill, An Analysis on Selected Variables “Waning Specific Mathematical Skills To Fifth Grade Students From A Disedventeged Aree. University of Connecticut, 1970. Thomas B. Fryer, Toward A Systems Approach in the Preparation of Elementary School Foreign Language Teachers: A Discription of Overt Teacher Behaviors in the Area Of Professional Preparation As Perceived by Foreign Language Teachers. University of Texas, 1970. 29 Frank Edward Blodgett, An Application of Systems Analysis to the Evaluation of Media Services in Higher Education. Unpublished Doctoral Dissertation, the University of Alabama, 1977. [27] Stephan C. Clark, and Richard J. O'Brien, and C. Maiston Case, Urban Educatien Systems Analysis, Ieehnical Note No. 30. 0.8. Department of Health, Education, and Welfare, Division of Operations Analysis for Educational Statistics, Washington D.C.: Government Printing Office,1967. [28] Arnold Reisman, "A Population Flow Feedback Model," Science. 153, July 1, 1966, pp. 89-91. [29] Richard W. Judy, and Jack B. Levine, A New Tool for Educational Administrators. Toronto: University of Toronto Press, 1966, p. 28. A [30] Koenig, op. cit. [31] K. M. Hussain, A Resource Requirements Prediction Model (RRPM-1)--Guide for the Project Manager. NCHEMS Technical Report 20, Boulder: 1971, p. . [32] Ibid.. pp. 9-10. [33] Kemalettin Akalin, A Systems Approach to the Analysis of the Teacher Su 1 Problem in TurkiehSecondagy Education. Unpublished Doctoral Dissertation Michigan State University, 197“. [3“] M. G. Keeney, State-Space Models of Educational Institution. Michigan State University, 1966. G. M. Van Dusen, Applications of a Computer Simulation Model to Logistical Decisions in a University. Unpublished Doctoral dissertation, Michigan State University, 1969. Zafer H. Ecevit, The Flow Dynamics of Educational Systems and Educationel Plannipg: A Case Study for Turkey. Unpublished Doctoral Dissertation, University of Pittsburg, 1972. 800 II Kwak, Applying the Systems Approach to an Educational Systems of the Republic Kogee. Unpublished Doctoral Dissertation, University of Washington, 1979. ~ John L. Crawford, A Systems Approach Model for the Application of General SystemsTheory Principles to 30 Education. Unpublished Doctoral Dissertation, University of Huston, 197". Andrew Durrel Dunbar, Educational Planning in Jamaica: A Systems Approach for Allocation in the New Secondary ISchools. Unpublished Doctoral Dissertation, Michigan State University, 1978. CHAPTER III A SYSTEMS APPROACH In this study a systems technique is utilized to investigate the costs of providing facilities .and personnel for eight. year schooling in rural areas. Expansion of five year education into eight year education is required by the Law of Basic Education and is supported by the Turkish educators and the Turkish State Planning Organization, but the Turkish education system is not able to meet the educational needs of rural people, and provide equal opportunities in education. In this chapter the rural education system is examined and a simulation model is developed to identify the design of a desired system in rural settings. The model is applicable to an individual school, a subprovince, or a province for descriptions of resources required for expansion. . The chapter is divided into five parts. First, a needs analysis is carried out to provide an explicit description of existing needs. Second, a system is identified in very general terms to form a link between the needs and a solution. In the third phase, interacting variables that are considered to be important in system performance are defined in detail, including their limits and their constraints in the system. Fourth, some alternative models are generated to represent the desired 31 32 system. In the fifth and final phase a simulation model is developed to test the alternatives by use of the computer. Needs Analysis The purpose of this phase is to: (1) establish that the needs exist and (2) develOp an explicit description of existing needs which can 'lead to a formulation of objectives for the system. Population Turkey has a high rate of population growth. In the last twenty-five years her population has doubled (Table 1). Despite heavy migration to certain urban centers, most Of the population is still living in rural areas. Population projections of the third five-year plan indicate that migration to urban centers will continue and, if nothing happens to slow this migration trend, about twenty-one millon people will be living in rural areas by 1980 and, when migration reaches steady-state, about seventeen million by 1995. Rural Diversity There are about eighty-thousand rural settlements. Only 36,115 of these settlements have village status with elected headmen [2]. The rest of them are scattered settlements with no more than a handful of houses [3]. 33 TABLE 1 Population by Year and Location [1] Year 19uO 1950 1960 1970 Location ' Urban 3,216,000 3,92n,000 7,200,000 12,682,000 “Rural 1fl,605,000 17,023,000 20,555,000 22,923,000 Total 17,821,000 20,9“7,000 27,755,000 35,605,000 Rural 82.0 81.3 7u.1 6A.“ ' 10,000 is the upper limit for rural classification. There is also a diversity of geographical structure and wealth in rural Turkey. About 17 percent of the rural families are landless, 50 percent have some land but too little to generate sufficient income to support a farm family, another 32 percent have sufficient land for subsistence, and less than 2 percent own portions of land large enough to generate income to support farm families [3]. This last group can easily afford to send their children to urban centers for education and a family with substantial land and with relatives in a nearby urban center may support their children's education by having them stay with those relatives while attending school. However, more than 65 percent Of all rural families have little likelihood of providing their children with further education after primary school unless they receive assistance. 3” Economic Development As early as 1835 in Turkey, it was noticed that there would be no economic innovation without a wide educational base [A]. Turkey is a developing country with the majority of her population living in rural areas. Wealth differences between urban and rural areas are widening to the benefit of urban areas, and migration is taking place towards urban centers. Despite this, the rural population is expected to remain high. Essential to continued development, and to the equal distribution of wealth, is a continuing improvement of rural conditions. Modernization of agriculture and appropriate industrial technology are two means for rural develOpment. Research findings show that education is associated with agricultural modernization. In developing areas people who have had some education‘ appear more willing to accept new methods and techniques than their less educated peers [5]. Basic Education The Law of Basic Education, No.1739 [6], states that the combination of primary and middle school education will be called national basic , education. Completion of the first five years Of basic education will lead to a primary certificate while completion of eight years of education will earn a basic education certificate. 35 A functional aim of basic education is to improve curriculum in such a way as to provide pupils with universal and environmental knowledge, with skills and attitudes best suited to their abilities and to prepare them both for further education and a working life. It is necessary that basic educational Opportunities be extended to the rural areas from the point of view of. social justice and equality of Opportunity for education, so all children between ages 7 and 1“ will be provided an eight year education as a minimum educational level required for continued development. Curriculum The founder of Turkey, Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, once stated that "primary and secondary education must provide the practical science and technology that is necessary for a develOping society, so that graduates would be able to find jobs and gain higher earnings" [7]. Despite_ this warning, the present curriculum does not provide this kind of education. There is no special rural education in Turkey, that is, the curriculum is similar in both urban and rural schools. Most subjects are considered irrelevant by rural students and unrelated to rural experience. Nonformal education (health, family planning, handcraft, etc.) is v 1 limited to only a few thousand rural settlements. 36 Administration The state performs its executive functions in a highly centralized manner, and educational administration is no exception. Cohn evaluates this. situation as "the Turkish bureaucracy is a source of strength and stability and, at the same time, one of the major constraints on the 'nation's develOpment." [8] In every action they take, school principals and local education officers are bound by the regulations of the Ministry of Education. In general, education officers may have had some training in pedagogy, however, school principals lack special training in administration. Teachers The distribution of teachers and administrators among~ schools as to their quantity and quality is unbalanced, favoring urban areas. [One-teacher schools whose instructor teaches five grades simultaneously are common at the primary level in rural areas. Most of the middle school teachers come from urban middle class families, and sometimes they have values different from those of rural people. If there is not a large number of teachers, a teacher may feel isolated in a rural community. As an educated human being, every teacher wishes to meet his/her social, personal and self realization needs, but these are seldom fulfilled in rural settlements. After a few years of rural experience 37 teachers often want to be transferred to an urban area. Teachers' salaries are not sufficient to provide even a moderate standard of living, and at the secondary level there are no extra benefits for teachers working in rural areas. By law a secondary school teacher has to teach at least fifteen to eighteen hours per week, but most teachers teach about thirty hours a week because of the lack of teachers at the secondary level. This heavy work load does not allow enough time for adequate classroom preparation, but does provide additional income for teachers. Usually teachers are not helpful to rural people beyond the classroom, since they have few skills to contribute to rural life. Students In 1973. primary school enrollment was about 100 percent in urban centers. The lower ratio of rural primary enrollment decreased. the. overall ratio to 90 percent (Figure 2). Before the 1970's the ratio of success to enrollment was quite low. For every hundred students enrolled only about 29 completed primary education in five years (Table 2). The rest of the students either repeated the same grade or dropped out. Most of the failure took place in the first three years. This has been changed and now Students advance to the next grade automatically in the first three years of primary 38 education. The success rate for the fifth grade students on the other hand was 87 percent, and about 50 percent of primary school graduates entered middle schools. TABLE 2 Student Statistics in Turkey 1973-197" [9] [a] [b] School Age Enrollm. Graduate Teacher School Sex Succ Type Population F/M cess [c][d] Primary 5,770,200 5,377,708 735,041 160.271 “1.191 73 29-87 Middle 2,692,000 927,062 161.972 26,9”3 2,302 ”0 61-76 [a] Graduates numbers are taken in 1971-72. [b] Female/male percentage in enrollment. [c] Success rate (percent) to enrollment. [d] Success rate (percent) in senior year. In the middle school age group there are more rural children than there are urban children, but the .enrollment ratios are reversed. Fidan [10], who collected data from a. random sample of twenty—five thousand students, confirms that (1) students from urban areas are overrepresented in all types of secondary schools, (2) significantly fewer female students from rural areas attend secondary schools than male students from rural areas, (3) children of farmers are significantly underrepresented. 39 n Prim-r y sell. as” 78 mMiddl 0 Se II. 1050 1900 1970 1073 Your [11 FIGURE 2. Ratio of Enrollment to School Age Population1 HO School Facilities Only about “0 percent of the middle schools were located in or close to rural areas in 1971. There are insufficient numbers of middle schools and a large number of rural primary graduates. The fact that there were more than forty rural applicants for every vacancy in boarding schools is another indication that there is a scarcity of available middle schools for rural people. There is a lack of educational materials in schools. Many schools operate with no workshop equipment, and no instructional aids. Although these materials are manufactured by the Ministry of Education, the quantities produced fail to meet the total demand. Summary of Needs Analysis Turkey has rural problems in common with other developing countries. Rural people are illiterate and generally poor. There is a scarcity of resources, and the allocation of available resources is inadequate. Most of the rural areas also have an inadequate number of secondary schools, income, health-care, and infrastructure. In general, the education system is elitist and selective, and functions with high levels of waste (dropouts, repeats). Turkey has reached the level of providing most of her population with primary schooling. It has become an educational policy in Turkey that middle school level H1 technical-vocational education be replaced with general academic education. Five-year educatiOH is to be expanded to eight-year education as a minimum requirment to enter any vocational school. According to the Law of Basic Education, an eight-year education is to be compulsory for Turkish people. I Both national and rural development require more education. The Constitution states that it is the state's responsibility to bring educational facilities. to the peOple [12]. Many Turkish educators share the idea that eight-year schooling should be compulsory. The third five-year plan aims at expanding enrollment in middle schools from ”O to 75 percent in two decades. In 1971 there were about 740,000 primary school graduates, 60 percent of whom lived in rural areas. For the school year of 1971-72 only about 350,000 primary School graduates enrolled in middle schools and most of them were urban graduates. There are over 200,000 eligible rural graduates who do not attend middle school, because there are no such schools available for them and many families in rural communities are not financially capable of sending their youth far away to an urban center for education. Inequalities in terms of providing education have not changed significantly since 1950. Unless educational policies are revised in favor of the disadvantaged groups 42 (rural people), educational opportunities will continue to be distributed unequally. Therefore, there is a major need for an expansion of basic educational facilities and personnel for rural peOple. System Identification in General The main concern of this study is the rural middle school, but it cannot be treated independently of any other rural or urban schools or the environment, because there are strong economic, social and political interactions both among the components of the educational system, and between the components and the environment. This interaction makes it important to consider every interacting variable. Here, information is sought to form a link between the needs generated by the. expansion of basic educational facilities for rural people, and the costs of meeting those needs. Figure 3 shows interacting variables categorized according to their role as system input variables, output variables, and design parameters. ‘13 Environmental inputs ~economy . -type of tax structur -price inflation -prices of commodities -family occupation, wealth -contributions, charity -public opinion -state policy -political fluctuation -cu1ture . -resignation, sickness, death -population, birth/death and migration -Constitution and laws Controllable inputs _ Outputs -student admission ‘_ -giddle school -investment graduates -expenditures rural -equipment supply middle -personnel schools Undesirable results -time of action ‘_—thigh repeat rate -regulations and . -nonattendance decrees I -high dropout rate -curriculum -social consequences System design parameters -region -weather -infrastructure -student distribution by sex -unit cost per student -specific technology -number of institutions -type of roads '-classroom size -curriculum, elective subjects -student distribution in different grades -school size FIGURE 3. Interacting Variables in Rural Middle Schools an The system input variables are of two classes, environmehtal inputs and controllable inputs., Environmental input variables affect the system but they are not significantly influenced by it, at least in the short run. In the system these variables are the general, economy, price inflation, family occupation, etc. -Controllable inputs, such as student admission, investment, curriculum, etc.. are necessary for the system to carry out its intended functions as specified by the control component Of the system, “and are utilized to obtain the desired system performance. The outputs of the system are the rural middle school graduates, with. some undesirable results such as large numbers of repeaters, dropouts, nonattendance, and variOus adverse social consequences (alienation, disturbances, migration, etc.). Design parameters specify the structure of the system. Some of them, such as regional and weather related variables, specific regional technology, infra- structure, and number of public institutions are fixed, whereas others such as classroom size and student distribution can be changed during the operation of the system. “5 Problem Formulation To formulate the problem explicitly, interacting variables have to be studied in detail, including their constraints and their upper and lower limits within the system and over the system operation. The next several pages discuss these major variables (see items listed in figure A). The purpose of this discussion is to further illuminate the nature of the variables and to indicate what assumptions or decisions will be made in terms of the model developed for this study. Some of the variables do not affect the model; assumptions will be made about the affects of others and educated guesses will be employed; and finally, actual data will be used for the remainder. Omitted Variables Many variables affect the system operation, but to keep the modelling within workable limits for this study, certain ones are assumed to have no effect on the model operation in terms of results wanted. Constitution, Laws, and Decrees The Constitution is the most important constraint and at the same time the strength of the Turkish government. It holds the state and the Ministry of Education responsible fOr training and educating people and requires the Ministry of Education to produce or to ”6 supply whatever is needed to open and to operate schools. With the approval of two-thirds of the National Assembly changes can be made in the Constitution. Laws, on the other hand, can be changed by a majority vote in the Assembly. In the area of policy making, the initiative clearly belongs to the executive. Ozbudan's study [15] gives strong evidence that the Ministry of Education is quite .powerful in policy formulation in education. Given public support, the Ministry of Education can increase its expenditures to produce more teachers and instructional materials through its production components when they are needed. In order to implement the Law of Basic Education, there should be some changes in the responsibilities of the general directorates for primary education and secondary education to integrate the primary and middle schools under basic education. These changes could come through a new law or a new decree. A decree is an operational command given by the Ministry of Education that defines what is to be done in a particular operation. Decrees and other policy related decisions are transmitted to the implementors, usually through the "Tebligler Dergisi" (Journal of Announcements), which every administrator and teacher is required to read and implement. The Opening of a new school is effected. by a decree from the Ministry of A7 Education in conformance with existing laws and the Constitution. The model developed for the present study is not sensitive to such changes but rather assumes the basic centralized nature of the control component will remain the same. That is to say, however the control component may be organized, the utility of the model for purposes of problem analysis will remain intact. Economic Factors The Turkish economy is basically agricultural (the industrial sector including mining, manufacturing, and utilities is ranked second). Agriculture (including livestock, forestry and fishing) makes the largest contribution to the gross national product and employs nearly two-thirds of the labor force. There is a negative foreign trade balance. Agricultural-prOduct-dependent exports do not even generate enough revenue to pay for necessary oil inports. Family occupation and wealth are correlated with rural conditions. About 20 percent of rural families are landless and jobs in rural areas are limited. Income for most rural families provides only a bare subsistence. Under the tax laws there is no education tax per se. When I national goals and priorities are set, allocations are made from the national budget. N8 Contributions, charities or gifts are occasionally donated for educational usages. For instance, land may be granted by the state or by local land owners for a school site, or a contribution of manual labor or materials such as brick, sand, etc., may be made by local people. These kinds of contributions are important when they occur but they are unpredictable, and cannot be incorporated in formal planning and so are omitted from this model. Political and Cultural Factors Public opinion and public attitudes toward education vary with regions, economic conditions, and educational levels of families. In general it is positive and high. The urban populace asks for and forces the state to provide more educational facilities, but the rural peOple are not effective in doing this. When a rural area is in poor econOmic condition its residents' beliefs and lack of awareness are sometimes exploited by politicians. These residents shelter themselves under religious promises, and they may have negative feelings for secular education. Forty years ago there were no religious schools in Turkey and there was no public pressure to have any. During the first twenty three years Of the multi-party period (after 1950). seventy-one religious middle schools were Opened, but in the last three years the number jumped to 33A [13], while Turkey was enduring her worst economic crisis. When the "9 exploitation of beliefs decreases, peOple in deprived rural areas may see the other side of the coin and ask for more education, as is happening in urban and some rural areas. State policy has been essentially unchanged since the formation of the Republic of Turkey. Although more educational opportunities are intended, many of the necessary steps have not yet been taken. Political fluctuation exists due to the state of the economy and different political parties. All political parties agree that education is important and that it is the duty Of 'the Ministry of Education to provide it. Some political parties promise that when they come into power, religious education will be more effective, but the likelihood of their coming into power -is almost nil. Cultural elements such as religion, ethnic background, language, habits, and technology vary by region. Islam religion and the official language, Turkish, are dominant in Turkey. Generally, non-Moslem people live in urban centers and have their own private schools. Non-Turkish speaking peOple more or less share other cultural elements with the rest of the population. By law, all ethnic groups are citizens by birth and schools are secular. Therefore, in schooling, cultural elements are not decisive, except for the Turkish 50 language, which is an important factor. This can create hardships for the non-Turkish speaking population, but in this study, Turkish language is assumed common everywhere. Sex Factor Student distribution by sex is related to school and environment. Some rural people do not care for their daughters to be educated for social and economic reasons. The distance to school has a greater effect on attendance of girls than boys. However in the model it will be assumed that sex differences will not affect the model's operation. School Progpege The Law of Basic Education consists of two sets of curricula, nonelective and elective. The nonelective curriculum will be the same in all middle schools, rural or urban. Subjects in this curriculum are: Turkish language and literature, mathematics, social studies, and general science (group 1 subjects, four hours per week each), and physical training and health, music, and vocational arts and job training (group 2 subjects, two hours per week each). Six elective curriculum subjects from which students may select two courses (group 3 subjects, six hours per week) are foreign language, technical education, home economics, commercial training, agriculture, and 51 music. It is unrealistic to think that these six subjects would be made available in rural schools since there will not be enough teachers for these subjects. Therefore, in rural schools it is assumed that the-Ministry of Education may select the best two subjects according to regional needs and resources. In the model the curriculum is represented as 28 class hours each week. Variables in the Model Variables in this group are taken into account in the model'one way or another. Gepgrahpy and Infrastructure Regional (location of settlements, distance between settlements and type of roads) and other fixed parameters such as weather related variables (distribution of rainfall, length of growing seasons, temperature), specific technologies for local communities, infrastructure, and the number of public institutions (schools, health centers etc.,) determine locations for school construction. Population Factors The population of Turkey is approximately forty million, about 55 percent of whom were living in rural areas in 1975. The birth rate in rural areas is higher than the national average of 5.3 percent and the death 52 rate is about 2.5 percent, but in the future, urban population is expected to be greater than the rural population because of high migration. to urban centers [1“]. Migration from smaller settlements to larger ones in rural areas increases the number of villages with five-hundred or more inhabitants, while migration from rural areas to urban centers reduces the rural population. During the last “decade one of the Turkish development plan objectives was to control this migration and to avoid urbanization problems through development of rural centers. These centers are intended to function as buffer settlements between rural settlements and urban centers by generating job Opportunities with their puplic institutions, such as education and health, as well .as local industries. A high birthrate, decreasing death rate and migration to cities are expected to continue, but with a state policy of developing these buffer rural centers, rural population is expected to stay about the same in coming decades. If buffer centers are not developed, the rural population will decrease, but the number of primary graduates will increase for a while because primary school dropouts have been decreasing gradually in recent years. [With the further extension of basic education it is expected that dropouts may decrease even faster. 53 Resignation, leaving for an urban school job, death and sickness cause the system to lose some of its staff annually. The Ministry of Education anticipates making up for this loss by training and hiring more personnel. Cost Factors Price inflation is an inseparable factor which fluctuates with. national and international economic situations. During the past five years Turkey has had a high inflation rate. Commodity prices vary according to national and international supply and demand relations, government actions, and price inflation. The Ministry of Education, buys school sites, school supplies and equipment when .. demand for them exceeds production, and constructs school buildings or appoints contractOrs for construction. Facilities seldom are rented. Time Time is not controllable, but the use of time for implementing decisions and production of required items can be scheduled. There is a best combination of inputs and conditions of interaction for maximizing a specified output within a given period of time. One purpose of the model is to help locate this optimum by having variables 5n become decision variables and thus. controllable by the experimenter. Design Parameters Classroom size and other design parameters may vary from one experiment to another. In practice, an average classroom accommodates forty-five students but the number of students in a classroom may go as high as sixty. According to regulations, class size should be no more than forty persons. In the model, school size is defined by the number of sixth grade classrooms and by the number of students per classroom. Besides classrooms, each school has other necessary rooms for library, workshop, physical education, laboratory, warehouse etc. Schools also have additional areas for corridors, restrooms, offices, and a playground. Their sizes are all related to the number of students in each school. ' Student distribution in different grades is related to dropouts, repeats and irregular attendance. The nationwide ratios in completing the sixth, seventh and eighth grade levels of middle school are 61, 65, and 72 percent respectively (before 1973). The rural ratios are lower than this national average and boarding schools' are higher. When schools are located closer to students, the curriculum is made more attractive, and rural needs are better understood, ratios are expected to be much higher. 55 About 90 percent of rural primary school-age children enter school, but only half of them graduate. There are about four hundred thousand primary graduates in rural areas. When primary education achieves its goal of admitting virtually all available children and keeping most of them in schools until graduation, the student pool for middle schools will increase. The Ministry of Education may regulate its admission policy to adjust admission to the available seats in middle schools. Output Rural middle school graduates are the desired outputs of the model. There are undesirable results associated with the middle school operation: some students repeat the same grade; some do not attend regularly; some drop out of school completely; and some may become alienated from the environment as a result of their education. These undesired results may be related to the quality of education, or to the degree of usefullness and appropriateness of the curriculum to rural needs. The model assumes that the quality of education, and the desired outputs will be no less than the nationwide level in the rural middle schools. In order to meet long range government goals, rural schools should be designed to admit 75 percent of the rural primary graduates and hold most of them in 56 school until graduation. This requires money for operational expenditures, investment in land, building, equipment, and teacher training, and the model is designed to assist in determining this amount. §pmmary Statement of Problems The problems can be summarized as : 1. The expansion of middle school facilities for rural people in such a way that 75 percent of the rural primary school graduates can be accommodated by the year 2000 A.D. 2. The determination of desirable school locations. Measures of the performance criteria which will be relevant in choosing alternative system designs are: 1. Average investment cost (TL/student). 2. Average operation cost (TL/student). 3. Total costs. Generation of System Alternatives There are several types of schools which may be used in various combinations to provide rural education. These schools are: Local School: a middle school in a rural settlement where there is sufficient threshold population. 57 Busing School: a middle school for which the Ministry of 'Education provides transportation to bring students from other settlements. I Boarding Schoo : a middle school for which the Ministry of Education provides lodging facilities and food for students who do not live in the local community. Combined School: a local middle school in which busing or boarding or both exist. Broadcasting School: a middle school for which the Ministry of Education provides mass media such as television, radio, and printed materials with the help of local coordinators. Mobile School: a school in which teachers are stationed in a center settlement and go to peripheral settlements to teach middle school subjects for a period of time, rotating with teachers in other subjects. These alternatives do not contradict existing laws and are physically possible. However, for a broadcasting school some materials must be imported since Turkey does not have sufficiently advanced technology to produce them in large quantities at present and importing these goods is difficult because of the scarcity of foreign exchange. Because of this economic restriction to broadcasting schools and different modeling considerations, for mobile schools, neither are included in this study. 58 Developing a Simulation Model The purpose of this section is to develop and present a model to describe the Turkish rural education system as a collection of interacting sectors or components (student, personnel, physical facilities, and control), each of which describes the Operation or function of some aspect of rural education (Figure A). The model represents the system through the values of parameters and program variables which are descriptive of the real situation at discrete points in time. A set of equations is developed for' each sector to describe the relationships among the services produced and resources required, then a second set of equations is formed to describe required expenditures for these rural education services. Thus it is a mathematical description of the resources required (generally speaking they are personnel, space, supplies, and equipment) to produce middle school graduates in rural schools. 59 r‘ " . ' Resources. L....1_._.J Control Sector Physical Facilities Sector Persona .1 sector CR 1T MSA FIGURE A. Basic Structure of Rural Education Symbols for the Figure COMS COPF COS CP CP CP F F MPS MSA NOS NSF PG Cost of middle school education Cost of physical facilities Cost of staff Control policy parameter for admission Control parameter for staff hiring Control parameter for allocation of facilities Function to calculate required staff Function to calculate required facilities Manpower stock Middle school admission Number Of staff Number and size of facilities Primary garduates 60 NO attempt is made to define the academic goals of education nor to establish operational measures of "quality"; these are accepted as givens. Rather, the objective is to provide a definitive description of the mechanism by which the resources are transformed into the resulting products. The model must be regarded only as an aid to decision-makers (control) in designing and operatieg a rural education system. The major objective of this study is to determine costs of resources to achieve enrollment levels of 75 percent of the primary school graduates in rural middle schools by 2000 A.D. In order to keep the model within workable limits certain variables are assumed to remain constant, or to be controlled independently; only variables to which the system response is most sensitive are included. Among the variables identified in previous sections, but omitted from the model in Figure 5 are legislative, cultural, political and taxing considerations. In order to implement the model, a computer program was developed, using the FORTRAN IV programming language. Description of Model Sectors The control sector represents policy decisions and is implemented to reflect regulations, decrees, administrative authority, admission policies etc., which 61 are established by the provincial authorities or the Ministry of Education. The student sector generates a direct demand fer physical facilities and perSonnel effort (teachers, administrators, and staff). Equations of the student sector represent this demand by the numerical values of student enrollment, admission policy, and [student distribution in different grade levels. The student sector creates indirect demand for additional facilities through the personnel sector. The rural education system must utilize classrooms, office space and other facilities (instructional materials, bus, lodging, etc.) In order to maintain the student, personnel, and training functions. The equations in the physical sector indicate the size and amount of facilities demanded by the personnel and student sectors. To produce personnel effort the system must also utilize teachers, administrators, and staff (secretaries, custodians, bus drivers, persons to operate boarding facilities, etc.). The equations of the personnel sector indicate the quantities of effort required to meet the student sector demand. Outputs The computer program gives a variety of descriptive output for each new and existing school when facilities are expanded in a subprovince, and it can also 62 give totals for each subprovince and province. From the output of a single model run many questions can be answered for a given situation and set of input parameters. Such information includes: 1. Available middle-school-aged population for a selected school site, distributed to show (a) local residents, (b) those within busing distance, and (c) those in remote settlements (remaining parts of a subprovince). 2. The year in which a school should be built. 3. The center in which to build a school. A. The kind of school to build (local, busing, boarding). 5. The required resources (personnel, facili- ties). 6. Expenses by various categories. 7. Cost differences if buses, land, building construction, boarding, or any combination of these were provided by the local people. Representation of Regions The model that is constructed here describes the education system within a geographic boundary corresponding to a subprovince, but subtotals are produced in such a way that they can be aggregated to represent a province. The model is sufficiently generalized so that by changing input parameters, a wide variety of situations 63 for different subprovinces, given subprovince, opening of an individual school, or expansion of facilities in an existing school, can be simulated. Some input parameters, for instance (1) dropout rate, ‘(2) repeat rate, (3) migration rate, and classroom size can be changed to generate hypothetical situations and enable better understanding of the system's performance (see Appendix .B for the description of how to use the model). Each subprovince has the same political structure, but there _are some differences among them such as population (large, small), geographical structure (hilly, plains, , coastal), climate (temperature never below freezing, heavy rain or snow region), size (square kilometers), and development stage (agriculture is dominant, some industry exists, some industrial investment vwill be provided soon). These characteristics are reflected in school site selection. Possible school sites, potential students that can attend a given school site center, and potential boarding students have to be defined for each subprovince by the control component to make the given information functional in the model. In the following [paragraphs a six-step procedural algorithm is explained for selecting school sites and identifying potential student population. 6H iigorithm Defining School Sites A subprovince is a political division of a province and has inhabitants in a center city and in scattered rural settlements. The center city is omitted from the model unless it is a rural town, since it is not considered part of the rural system as defined in this study. If the city's peripheral settlements have daily access to the city, they may also be left out of the study. Consider a rural settlement which has a middle school. It may serve students within a few miles as local students. It may handle additional students by providing bus service (to students who live less than one hour traveling time distance) or it may provide boarding facilities within the subprovince or province for students who are outside the busing distance. A new school cannot be constructed just anywhere. The threshold population (identified in the student sector section) is the minimum total population deemed sufficient to establish a school with the minimum acceptable capacity in terms of student spaces or potential enrollment. A center settlement is a possible school site for a new school if the threshold population exists within busing distance. Other desirable 'characteristips for a possible school site are the existence of infrastructure (Sufficient running water, roads, electricity), public 65 institutions (primary schools, lycee. health center, agricultural extension office, community development center), a base population of five hundred or more people, location (less than one hour travel-time to settlements), commerce (trade) center in neighboring settlements (see Figure 5). Some Group Classifications characteristics I I II III of a center Infrastructure (electricity, adequate some , none roads, etc.) Institutions many ' some none (schools, etc.) Trade types . sell/buy closed economy none commodities mployment ‘ agriculture agriculture or self Bmall industry small industry employment opulation (p) p>1000 , 1000>p>500 500>p igration in slight or none out Traveling time 60>t to some 60>t to some 60>t to no t (minutes) settlements settlements settlement uture investment employment no investment unemploym. FIGURE 5. Characteristics of a School Site Each subprovince would have an administrative unit to search for school sites by using a provincial map, local demographic data, and a procedure such as: 66 1. Omit peripheral settlements of the subprovince center, if the center is an urban area. 2. Identify rural settlements with an existing middle school where expansion of school facilities to an average or maximum size school is possible by providing busing or boarding facilities. 3. Identify possible center settlements to be school sites by dividing settlements without existing Schools into three groups according to the characteristics in Figure 5. Group I and group II settlements are possible school sites. A. Identify settlements (peripheral settlements) within busing distance to a school site by dividing remaining settlements into three groups according to their characteristics in Figure 6. Group I and group II settlements are possible peripheral - settlements. Excessive distance between home and school is sometimes the key factor in reducing access and increasing absenteeism, therefore traveling time (from peripheral settlement to school should not be more than one hour).\ Tranportation facilities (on foot, bike, horse,carriage, automobile), road conditions (all weather or gravel roads). and climate (heavy rain or snow may cause transportation delay for hours or days) determine which ones are to be chosen as peripheral settlements. 67 Some characteristics Group Classifications of the center and its I II III peripheral settlement Traveling time 60>t 60>t t>60 t (minutes) ' Transportation 11 means auto only none facilities Road condition 11 weather roads with roads without roads drainage drainage Climate 0 effect no effect closing roads _on roads on auto for snow/reig FIGURE 6. Characteristics of Busing Distance 5. The remaining settlements are identified as remote settlements whose students can be accommodated only in boarding schools. 6. When a school site close to a subprovince border has some peripheral settlements in a neigthring ,subprovince the border is not a restrictiOn, and those settlements may be included in whichever subprovince is most appropriate. Figure 7 shows an application of the above algorithm to Bunyan subprovince. This algorithm enables the model implementer to arrange necessary demographic data (center, peripheral and remote settlement populations) to be used in sector equations. 1" :oqeee I-gfl 0‘ ~ ’0 ' a ' a ’ .4 . . . f I l. ‘ -.: " G ‘0 .. / I 3 ./ saa KAY _ I i m a 1 \ , . . _I ‘.\. . f . . l \ . °. \. ,. a-wvaw . . \ ‘ .° 0. o. : . KAYSERi l ' l j .a' 0’ + ‘. \o \o ‘. ‘0 FIGURE 7. Application of Algorithm to Bunyan Subprovince Symbols for the Figure ~..— Subprovince border line. .. Busing distance range to given settlement. Subprovince center city. Settlement with an existing middle school. Possible center for school site. Peripheral settlement of a center settlement. Remote settlement whose students can be accommodated only in boarding school. dlxlll" 69 The Mathematical Model In coming paragraphs the equations of the sectors of the model are stated in mathematical form to describe the relationships among the services and resources required, and their costs. Student Sector Assumption 1: In rural areas everyone gets primary education. Assumption 2: Every primary graduate wants to attend middle school, or the government has some means to enforce the attendance. AssumptiOn 3: Transfer students (who are not busing or’ boarding students but temporary residents of a center settlement) are omitted from the' calculations, because in the long run their number will be minimized when the model is implemented. The computer program computes the available population of selected centers, peripheral settlements. and the rest of the settlements in a given subprovince by the next equation: pop(k,n) = pop(k,n-1) ' (1+br-dr-oum+j*inm-l'invm) + m * (art(1,n)'inm+art(2,n)) where, pop(k,n) : n th year population of: center (k=3), - peripheral settlements (k=2). remote 70' settlements (k=1), all peripheral settlements (k=5), br : birth rate, dr : death rate, oum : emigration rate, j : 1 when k=3 and pop(3,n)>2,000; else -1, inm : immigration rate, 1 : 1/2 when k=2, else 0, invm : migration due industrial investment, m : +1 when k=3, otherwise 0, art(1,n) : inm * (pop(1,n-1)+pop(5.n-1)): number of of people who immigrate to a center when center population is larger than 2,000. art(2,n) : (pop(1,n-1)+pop(2,n-1))'invm/2; number of people who may immigrate to a center after an economic investment, n : represents time (year) in all equations (for complete list of model parameters see Appendix C). when the computer program shows pop(3.n) + pop(2,n) to be greater than or equal to the threshold population, then it is at year "n" that the construction of a school should be completed for a center and its peripheral settlements. The model computes the required threshold population for a given set of input parameters by: t = cs'nc / (rg 'p) ' (1) where, t : threshold population [16] cs : classroom size no : number of classrooms in a middle school, rg : age group as a percentage of total population p : admission rate (policy) For a threshold population of t, there are pop(3,n)*rag*p local students, pop(2,n)“rag'p busing students, and for a given subprovince pop(1,n)*rag*p students subject to boarding. The system can accommodate some boarding students when the threshold population is 71 short. Entering class size for a combined school is; gradl(1,n) = t'rag 'p (2) where, gradl (1,n) : number of students entering the system ' (the first grade of the middle school at the n th year), as in equation (1), and relevant primary graduates as percentage . of total population. t. P rag The student distribution by grades is : gradl(1,n) gradl(1,n) + gradl(1,n-1) ' rp1 (3) gradl(2,n) = gradl(1,n-1) * (1-rp1-dor1)+grad1(2,n—1)‘rp2 gradl(3,n) = gradl(2,n-1) ' (1-rp2-dor2) where, gradl(k,n) : k th grade level students at the n th year rp1 : repeat rate for grade level 1 rp2 : repeat rate for grade level 2 dor1 : dropout rate from grade level 1 dor2 : dropout rate from grade leVel 2 n-1 : previous year students in corresponding grade level, if school is opened at the n th year gradl(k,n-1)-0 for k=1,2,3. The Output of this sector is the number of graduates for the n th year: out(n) = gradl(3,n) ' (1-dor3) (u) where, out output (graduates) of the system, gradl : third grade students at the year n, and dor3 : dropout and failure rate from grade level 3. The total number of students in the system in a given year is: 72 totstu(n) =:§:gradl(k,n) (5) bl where, totstu : total students in the system, and gradl : grade k student at the year n. This total number of students, which may include busing and/or boarding students, demands sufficient and particular physical facilities and personnel effort. Personnel Sector Assumption : An adequate stock of manpower exists for staff employment, and the Ministry of Education will train teachers and administrators in required numbers and time. Assumption 2: The Ministry Of Education anticipates and makes up for losses of personnel due to resignation, death or sick leave. Inputs to the personnel sector are manpower stock, total number of students in the system, number of classified (busing, boarding) students, and control policy parameters to define the required number of personnel units. In the system, the number of administrators (school princpals and their deputies) are identified according to student population and calculated by: tadm = totstu * adm (6) where, tadm : total number of administrators in a school, totstu : total students as in equation (5). adm : number of administrators per student. 73 There are three groups of teachers in the rural middle school and their numbers are determined by the 'number of classrooms in the system: tteach = nclas * (g1 + g2 + g3) (7) where, tteach : total number of teachers in a school, nclas : number of classrooms in a school, gk : number of group k teachers per classroom. The number of faculty in the system is the total from equations (6) and (7): tofac = tadm + tteach (8) where, tofac total faculty, tadm tteach total administrators as in equation (6), and total teachers as in equation (7). In the system, secretaries, custodians, librarians and laboratory technicians are possible staff members whose numbers are calculated by: daystf = nclas * nds ' (9) where, daystf number of staff working for a middle school, nclas : number of classrooms in a school, nds : required number of daily staff per classroom. Cooks, custodians, staff for maintenance, nurses, and maids are required personnel for the operation of boarding facilities and their number is: borstf = boards * nbos (10) 7” where, borstf : number of boarding staff boards : boarding students, and nbos : number of boarding staff per boarding student. Drivers and service men are necessary to operate buses, and their number in the system is: busstf = nobus * nbs (11) where, busstf number of busing staff number of buses required number of busing staff per bus nobus nbs The number of staff then is calculated by summing. up equations (9) through (11): tstaf = daystf + borstf + busstf (12) where, tstaf : total staff The number of personnel in the system is the combination of equations (8) and (12): toper = tofac + tstaf ' (13) where, toper : total person in the system Physical Facilities Sector Assumption 1; The Ministry of Education will supply instructional materials to every middle school with at least one set of items for each of the following subjects: physics, chemistry, biology, library, workroom, 75 and physical education. _Assumption 2: School buildings are constructed according to a proposed school size population, but the design is flexible enough that about no percent in addition to the regular population can be accommodated without any change in physical facilities. Inputs to the physical facilities sector are the total number of local-busing-boarding students, the number of support personnel, and parameters to identify required units of facilities. Land is necessary for constructing buildings, outside school -activities and recreation (school garden). The garden area proportional to the student population is determined by: tgard = totstu * ag (1“) where, tgard : total required garden area (areas are given ' in square meters), totstu : total students as in equation (5), and ag : garden area per student School buildings are composed of classrooms, restrooms, offices, library, warehouse, workroom, stairs, etc. In addition to school buildings, the system may have a garage area when there is busing, and dormitories, canteen, and showers when there are boarding facilities. First, the classroom area is calculated by: tclar = nclas * cs * acl (15) where, tclar nclas cs acl 76 total classroom area, number of classrooms in a school. classroom area per student And second, remainder of the required area is c ebuldl = where, ebuld aes board abo nobus ab toper aP alculated by: number of students per classroom, and building totstuPaes+ boards'abo+ nobus'ab + toper'ap (16) 1 extra building area, extra area per student 3 number of boarding students area per boarding student number of buses area per bus total persons as in equation (13) area per person The then total building area is the equations tbuild = where, (15) and (16). tclar + ebuildl tbuild : total building area, And the total land area is: bland = where, tland tgard + tbuild : total land, Cash Expenditures Assumption 1: All faculty are trained Ministry of Education. sum of (17) (18) by the 77 AsSumption 2: Although personnel salary varies according to a person's educational background, type of profession, and years Of experience, here, an average monthly salary is used for every person in the system. Assumption 3: Overtime work is paid on an average daily basis. This section computes the cost of the rural middle school education. In order to determine the unit cost of rural education, cash expenditures and prorated investment cost are computed. IrCash expenditure is the money paid for services and for consumer goods. It includes salaries of personnel and the operational costs of "daily", boarding, and buSing facilities. Expenditures for all personnel services includes salaries, overtime payments, and benefits (travel, medical care etc.). They are calculated by: casper(n) = toper+emi(n)+toper'nowd*eein(n) +toper'be(n) (19) where, casper : cash expenditures for all personnel services costs are given in Turkish lira-TL), toper : total personnel as in equation (13), emi : montly income per person, nowd : number of school days in a year, eein : overtime payment per day, per person, and be : benefits per person. Cash expenditures for all electricity, water, mailing, miscellaneous items, minor repairs etc. Are necessary to keep schools in operation every day. There 78 are additional cash expenditures for food, clothing, repairs, allowance for students in boarding facilities, and for gasoline and bus repair when there is busing service. The total operating cost for schools is calculated by: operc(n) = totstu'daomc(n)+borads'bomc(n) +nobus‘nowd'buomc(n) (20) where, operc : cash expenditures for total operation, totstu : total students as in equation (5). daomc : operation-maintenance cost per daily studen boards : number of boarding students, bomc : operation-maintenance cost per boarding stu nobus : number of buses, nowd : number of school days in a year, buomc : operation-maintenance cost per bus Prorated Cost The prorated cost is the annual depreciation rate of capital investment over the life of the durable goods (land, buildings, materials). First the total investment cost is calculated, thén the prorated cost. Investment in building, land, and buses is calculated by: bulinvc(n) = tbuild * cc(n) (21) where, bulinvc investment for building constructions, tbuild : total building area as in equation (17),and cc : construction cost at the n th year per sq. laninvc(n) = tland *lc(n) (22) where, t dent 79 laninvc : investment on land, tland : total land as in equation (18),and 1c : land cost per sq. m. businvc (n) = nobus ' buc(n) (23) where, businvc : investment on bus, nobus : number of buses, and buc : bus cost per bus Different durable goods are required by different types of operations. Beds, mattresses, canteen facilities and clothes are some of the materials which are needed for boarding facilities. SerVice-repair tools are needed for busing operations, and desks, chairs, typwriters, etc., are some of the materials needed for school facilities. Their costs are calculated below as investment in boarding, busing, and local/combined facilities: borfic(n) = boards * bouc(n) + borstf * ucp(n) (2H) where, borfic investment in boarding facilities, boards number of boarding students, bouc : boarding utility cost per boarding student borstf : number of boarding staff as in equation (10), ucp : utility cost per person - busfic(n) = busstf * ucp(n) + brk (25) where, busfic : investment in busing facilities, busstf : number of busing staff as in equation (11), ucp : utility cost per person brk : cost of repair tools. dayfic(n) = where, dayfic totstu ucs daystf tofac ucp set tofacic(n) = where, tofacic tofainv(n) = where, tofainv tofac tetc 80 totstu ' ucs(n) + (daystf+tofac) ' ucp(n) + set (26) investment in local school facilities, total students as in equation (5). local/combined utility cost per student local school staff as in equation (9), total faculty as in equation (8). utility cost per person cost of library, workroom, physics, biology, etc., materials. borfic(n)+busfic(n)+dayfic(n) (2?) investment in total facilities, tofac(n) * tetc (28) : total investment to produce teachers, : total faculty (teachers and administrators), : teacher training cost. The prorated cost of investment is calculated: procost(n) = where, procost bulinvc bd businvc busd tofacic fd tofainv bulinvc(n)'bd +businvc(n)'busd +tofacic(n)'fd + tofainv(n)/25 + tland/5O (29) prorated cost of investments, investment for building constructions, depreciation value of buildings, investment on bus, depreciation value of buses, investment on total facilities, depreciation value of facilities, total investment to produce teachers, 81 Unit Cost To find the unit cost for rural education per student, the current cost of education is calculated including cash expenditures and prorated cost by: cucoed(n) = casper(n) + operc(n) + procost(n) (30) where, cucoed : current cost of rural education. casper : as in equation (19). operc : operation cost as in equation (20), procost : as in equation (29). and unit cost of educational services per student is then: ucpst (n) = cucoed(n) / totstu(n) (31) where, ucpst : unit cost (TL) of educational services per student. Summary The Law of Basic Education requires expansion of five year education into eight years and is supported by Turkish educators and the Turkish State Planning Organization. The Turkish education system does not provide equal educational opportunities nor adequate development of rural people. A [model has been developed to represent an educational system for rural areas. It is applicable to 82 an individual school, subprovince, and province for definitive descriptions of the resources 'required for expansion. The program reads its input data, then computes the required resources and outputs of its three sectors (student,physical facilities, personnel), and related investment and operation costs. It may be used to carry out experiments by changing some of the parameters (rp1, dor1, cs, pi, etc.,), and possible school sites for a given run, in order to understand the expansion problem better. FOOT NOTES [1] Turkiye Istatistik Cep Yilligi (Statistical Pocket Book of Turkey) 197 .0 Ankara: Devlet Istatistik Matbaasi, 1977. Rusen Keles, Socio-economic and Political Aspects of Urbanization in Turkey. Submitted for the COnference on the Republic of Turkey, 1923-1973, University of Chicago, Nov. 5-7, 1973. ' [2] Resmi Gazete, Dorduncu Bes Yillik Kalkinma Plani (The A th. Five Year Development Plan) 1979-1983. Ankara: Basbakanlik Basimevi, 1978. [3] Halil Copur, Organizational Dimensions of Rural Development: A Turkish "Case. Unpublished Doctoral Dissertation, Cornell University, 1976. [A] Fay Kirby, Turkiyede Koy Enstituleri (Village Institues in Turkey.) Published Dissertation, Colombia University, 1960, Ankara: Ruzgarli Matbaasi, 1962. [5] Phlip Foster, and James R. Sheffield (eds,), The World Year Book of Education 197”: Education and Rural Development. London: Evans Brothers Limited, 1973. [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [1A] [15] [16] 83 Canadian Hunger Foundation Appropriate Technology. Ottawa, 1976. Copur, op. cit. Resmi Gazete, Milli Egitim Temel Kanunu (The Law of the National Basic Education) No: 1739. Ankara: Basbakanlik Basimevi, 1973. Milli Egitim Bakanligi Ilk Ogretim Genel Mudurlugu, 1971-1972 Yilligi. Ankara, 1972. Edwin J. Cohn, Turkish Economic, SocialL and Political Change--the Development of a More Pros erous and 0 en Societ . New York: Praeger Publishers, 1970, p. 85. Turkiye Istatistik Cep Yilligi, op. cit. Yahya Kemal Kaya, Insan Yetistirme Duzenimiz- PolitikaI Egitim, Kalkinma (Our Human Training- Politics, Education, DeveIOpment.) Ankara: Nuve Matbaasi, 1977. Nurettin Fidan, Equality of Educational Opportunity in Turkey. Unpublished Doctoral Dissertation, Michigan State University, 1972. PAKD, Cumhurivetin Ellinci Yilinda Rakam Ve Grafiklerle MilliEgitimimiz (Our National Education With Numbers and Graphics at the 50 th. Anniversary of the Republic.) Istanbul: Milli Egitim Basimevi, 1973. . ' Resmi Gazete, Turkiye Cumhuriyeti Anayasasi (Turkish Constitution.) Ankara: Basbakanlik Basimevi, 1961. Resmi Gazete, Dorduncu Bes Yillik Kalkinma Plani (The R th. Five Year DeveIOpment Plan) 1979-1983. Ankara: Basbakanlik Basimevi, 1978. Ibid. Ergun Ozbudun, "Parliment in the Turkish Political Systems," Journal of South Asian and Middle Eastern Studies. Vol. II, 1978, p. 68. William T. S. Gould, Guidelines forg§chool Location Planning- World Bank Staff Working Paper No. 308. Washington D.C.: the World Bank, 1978. ' CHAPTER IV APPLICATION OF THE MODEL The model is useful for studying a variety of situations from the operation of an individual school, through planning for all schools in a settlement, subprovince, or at the national level; by summarizing results of the lower levels. [While the development was motivated by and designed for studying the expansion of education facilities for rural people, it can also be applied to an urban center by identifying corresponding demographic data as local, peripheral, and remote populations for that urban center. A province, with its subprovinces and their settlements and individual schools, is the most general case for an experiment. There are many possibilities for experiments for a given situation. Some of the following variables: classroom size, school size preference, population, student distribution rates, cost related parameters, and distribution of possible school sites in a given subprovince etc., can be considered constant and others changed for each experiment. Typically, one would select a province for study, use the six-step algorithm developed in Chapter III to identify existing and potential school sites and 84 85 populations for the given situation, then design an experiment using the model to carry out the calculations. A variety of information such as school size, required number of personnel, plus costs of operation, land, buildings, utilities and maintenance (see Table C in Appendix C), and similar information for busing and boarding services (see Tables B-1 and B-2 respectively in Appendix C) is used to determine the cost for each school in the experiment. The program then selects the opening dates for schools at each site. At the subprovince level the results from these individual schools are then aggregated from the year they commence operatiOn (see Tahles T and Y in Appendix C). The expansion to a province is then a summary of one or more subprovinces, and by taking each province of Turkey into consideration the total picture for the country can be obtained. Application to a Province In this chapter, several cases are presented in the form of an experiment to illustrate the utilization of the model. This experiment uses Kayseri province and its subprovinces. Kayseri, one of the 67 provinces in Turkey, is located southeast of the Capitol, Ankara, almost in the middle of the country with high plateau terrain. 86 Major sources of income for the more than one half million people in Kayseri, are the textile, carpet, and food industries and the use of land .for cereals, sugar beets, grapes, and livestock production. The industries are located mostly in and around the prOvince center city (also called Kayseri). In order to keep this illustration to a reasonable size, it is assumed that Kayseri has three subprovinces, Bunyan (with actual demographic data) and two hypothetical ones Subpr2 and Subpr3. Some information about Bunyan is given in the following sections. For the other two subprovinces the data is identical to Bunyan except school size preference and bus costs, which are changed in order _to examine their effects on costs. Thus several subprovinces and centers are included to illustrate how 1 individual school data can be aggregated to the province level, but similar centers are used to illustrate cost comparisons under different considerations. Bunyan Bunyan has about 36,000 rural people who need middle school facilities, a situation common to other subproVinces. Rural people of Bunyan, like many other Turkish rural peOple. are engaged mainly in agriculture, and there is also some rug making. There are several possible school sites with a 87 population of 2,000 or more (see Figure 7). Using the six-step algorithm to identify school sites and potential students, rural Bunyan is found to have three center settlements. Settlement Akkisla has an existing middle. school, and two other settlements Elbasi and Karakaya, are assumed to have identical local and peripheral populations. In order to show how the model responds when there is a high population increase in a center, it is assumed that there will be some kind of economic investment, generating a population increase in Elbasi, but no investment for Karakaya, so as to understand the effects of such an'investment. Input for the Experiment A Computer description of the experiment is represented on several data cards by the experimenter (Appendix B), and is illustrated below with actual data from this experiment. Most of the necessary data have been gathered from governmental publications, and educated guesses are used for the rest. The first data card indicates the level (province, subprovince, etc.) of the study, the length of the simulation period (20 years here), and the province name. The second card identifies the physical design characteristics that have been specified for a school and their values are displayed in Appendix C. The third card is the subprovince head card 88 and contains: 0.055 birth rate, 0.025 death rate, . 0.040 immigration rate to rural centers, 0.060 emigration rate to urban or other rural _ centers, 0.094 primary graduates as ratio to total popu- lation,‘ 1 build larger school first (size preference), 5 Bunyan has one settlement with middle school, 2 there are two possible school sites, 3 there are 3 rural centers, 15155 remote population, . 12659 total peripheral pOpulation, Bunyan subprovince name. The fourth card contains the yearly admission rate, and for this experiment it is 40 percent for the first five years, 60 percent for the next five years, and 75 percent for the rest of the simulation period. The fift hand sixth cards have cost characteristics (cost of land, building, utilities,etc.) plus student progression rates. The seventh card, for the settlement Akkisla contains: Akkisla name of the center(has a school), 2799 local population, 4129 peripheral settlement population, 0.04 immigration rate to center, 0.060 emigration rate to other centers, 0.000 immigration due to investment, 25 no investment (when it is more than 20). 108 students in first grade of existing school, 197 total student population in school, 0.85 ratio of local to total first grade students. The eighth card is for the center of Elbasi and contains: Elbasi name of the center (possible school site), 2685 local population, 89 4265 peripheral settlement population, 0.040 immigration rate to center, 0.060 emigration rate to other centers, 0.05 immigration due to investment, 2 year in which investment will begin. The last card for the subprovince’Bunyan is the card for the center of Karakaya and contains: Karakaya name of the center (possible school site), 2685 local population, 4265 peripheral settlement population, 0.040 immigration rate to center, 0.060 emigration rate to other centers, 0.00 immigration due to investment, Output The computer report (see Appendix C) displays the data card information and a set of tables with costs and needs for each school center in the experiment (see Appendix C for the table headings and tables). iThe following sections summarize this experiment. Table 3 contains the results for Akkisla showing the population of remote, peripheral, and center settlements, and their primary graduates (boarding, busing and local students, respectively) at annual intervals over the simulation period. 90 TABLE 3 Population and Number of Primary Graduates for Akkisla (extracted from Table A-1 in Appendix C) Population Simulation Years of 1 2 3 .. 11 12 13 .. 17 remote 15,155 14.094 12.189 7.331 5.317 6.339 4.741 periph. 4,129 3,839 3.570 1,995 1,855 1.725 1,288 center 2,799 2,869 2.999 3.395 3.445 3.495 3.584 primary graduates subject to: boarding 569 529 492 516 480 446 334 busing 138 127 117 123 113 104 73 local 13 15 18 147 150 154 167 The threshold population of Akkisla is large enough to support an expansion of the existing school facilities (with an entering class of 108 students), to a medium size school (an entering class size of 280), giving 172 new places for the entering class. The number. of primary graduates reaches the threshold for expansion in year 11, so the expansion should be completed no later than the beginning of the 11th year for 73 busing and 147 local students (Tables B-1 and C). Busing services are provided for 73 students, corresponding to year 17. when the declining rural population has decreased to 1/3 of its original value. Tables 4 and 5 display the expansion requirements and costs (Turkish liras, TL) for' busing or boarding services for the corresponding years. To provide busing services for 73 pupils during the first year of operation, 91 one bus and one person are needed (Table 4). About 2,000,000 TL must be spent to provide a bus, garage, and land: plus another 530,700 TL for operation _during the first year 'of schooling. 0n the other hand, boarding facilities for the same number of pupils would icost 485,300 TL for investment and 1,256,400 TL for operation (Table 5).. TABLE 4 Busing Results for Akkisla (extracted from Table B-1 in Appendix C) Simulation Bused Investment Operation Busing Buses Year Students Cost Cost Staff needed 11 73 2,081,700 530,700 1 1 12 132 6,248,100 1,592,100 3 3 13 182 9,232,800 2,122,800 4 4 TABLE 5 Boarding Results if Busing Students Are Boarded (extracted from Table B-2 in Appendix C) Simulation Boarded Investment operation Boarding Year Students Cost Cost Staff 11 73 485,300 1,256,400 2 12 132 875,700 2,222,100 3 13 182 1,213,100 3.133.500 5 the computer program compares busing and boarding costs for the same number of students. The computed cost per student (based on prorated investment costs over the lifetime of capital goods plus annual operation costs) for 92 busing(17,027 TL) is less than the boarding cost (17.381 TL), therefore busing is chosen over boarding (see Appendix C for Akkisla). Besides. the busing and/or boarding costs, all students need classrooms, teachers, etc. Table 6 displays the requirements for educating the 220 new students for the 11th year and afterwards in Akkisla (220 enrollments for 172 available places). TABLE'6 Results of Expansion in Akkisla (extracted from Table C in Appendix C) Simulation Total Investment Operation Class Year Students Cost Cost Staff Faculty rooms 11 220 4,241,400 3,058,500 1 6 4 12 397 6,223,825 5,627,000 2 8 8 13 - 551 8.095.325 7,900,500 3 12 12 Some students were not accommodated even after the expansion of school facilities in Akkisla (see, Table 7). Since toward the end of the simulation period, there are not enough students (local and busing) to justify another school in Akkisla, the computer program adds those students into the boarding population after the opening year of the new school, and moves to the next settlement center, Elbasi. 93 TABLE 7 Unaccommodated Primary Graduates (extracted from Table A-2 in Appendix C) Students Simulation Years of 1 2 3 ... 14 15 16 17 Boarding 569 529 492 .415 386 359 334 Busing 138 127 117 23 15 7 0 Local 13 15 18 0 0 0 0 Because of the assumption of investments in Elbasi, the computer program gives a different center and peripheral populetion distribution for Elbasi than Karakaya. Table 8 compares this distribution in the two .settlements for selected years. i In the experiment this population difference is reflected in the size of required schools and their busing and local population. For Bunyan, the ‘school size preference was to build the larger one first, so the. computer program searches threshold population according to the desired school size. There is a threshold population of almost 10,000 for Elbasi around the 15th year, compared with about 5.000 threshold population for Karakaya. At the 11th year a maximum size combined school with busing facilities for 62 pupils in Elbasi and one medium size combined school with 93 busing students in Karakaya are necessary. The larger boarding population reported for Karakaya for years 15 and 16 is due to the unaccommodated population from Elbasi. 94 TABLE 8 Population Comparison Between Elbasi and Karakaya (extracted from Table A-1 for Elbasi and Karakaya) Simulation Years 11 12 13 . 11 12 13 Population of Elbasi Karakaya Peripheral 1,596 1,446 1,310 2,060 1,915 1,780 Center 5.313 7.109 7.390 3.269 3.318 3.356 Boarding 516 520 477 616 559 507 Busing 112 101 92 145 135 125 Local 480 501 520 230 233 237 When there are large numbers of unaccommodated remote settlement students, the computer program reports additional boarding results. First, it displays the number of unaccommodated primary graduates who are subject to boarding in the subprovinces of Kayseri. Second, it displays the information for constructing a maximum size boarding school (see Appendix C) to accommodate those. students. Table 9, extracted from (Table T of Bunyan, shows the total subprovince enrollment and costs for selected years. For the first simulation year, the entering class facilities of a combined school are provided for 13,030,175 TL investment and 18,788,800 TL operating costs. At the 11th year three more schools with busing facilities and personnel are provided for Bunyan with corresponding costs. No more schools are opened during the balance of the experiment term. boarding, two 95 with bus facilities), Two maximum and one medium size schools (one with and one expansion of an existing school (with busing services), are required in .order to admit middle schools in period provided in Bunyan are displayed in Figure for this rural experiment. Bunyan, unit costs per year in Figure 11. Sim Bus Yr Stu 1 0 2 O 3 0 6 0 11 228 12 410 13 567 graduates Yearly Board Stu 525 949 1.320 1,320 1,320 1.320 1,320 during the 75 percent of the eligible students into simulation Types and number of places 8, and their TABLE 9 Totals for Subprovince Bunyan All Total Cost of .No of Stu Investmt Operation Sch Stf 525 13,030,175 18,778,800 1 34 949 21.913.475 34.079.100 1 63 1.320 29,626,630 47,532,300. 1 89 1,320 0 47,532,300 1 89 2.297 28.102.375 67,563,900 4 127 3,086 49,677,850 84,827,700 4 161- 3.773 68,639,575 99,404,400 4 192 75 percent of the primary For Subpr2 to admit during the experiment term, school facilities is necessary at Bunyan, plus ten minimum the 11th year an expansion of old as in size new schools in different years, six with busing and four with boarding services. 96 I O l U ,I a. Combined" 3,7734 Docrdln. 9,3206 A A‘ A ‘ coco-90.00.09.000... lusln' r4 1* i'J 9 ii--i A--1.iii---.i ’ 1 '1 39 Your FIGURE 8. Number of Places Provided in Bunyan e Combined : Boarding+Busing+Local 97 C o U a“ I 3041 Combined I ‘0“ loo rding ' 1 o on so... losing ‘ . : -d-J—------ :---‘ r -- J.: 02, " o i ' ' T’u ' 20 7 Your FIGURE 9. Number of Places Provided in Subpr2 98 .) U ' Combined 3.12: I" .— Ioordln' ”320 ‘ 00-...- o oo ooooooooo losing 02 . 7 A p p,_ ,J'i' Li- i i': _ ° 1 11 20 17... FIGURE 10. Number of Places Provided in Subpr3 99 : 3 a d o-‘TS e 3 350721 1» i _. ._:-J I l I 4 y I I a .. I 33A44 1 -{ anraw 5 ......‘f-r'.'f'.'?. Loo '1:£&::t::l:t’ 21000 1 . \ suarax SUIPIL 25,000 A A A __A A - _ - 1 1° ' ' m1 5 Your FIGURE 11. Unit Cost of Education 100 Table 10, extracted from Table T of Subpr2, displays information similar to Table 9. Differences are due to the preference of building smaller size schools in Subpr2. ConSequently, more schoOls are needed and openings occur in earlier years of the simulation. For Subpr2 ten minimum size schools can do what two maximum and one medium size schools can for Bunyan, and with less cost (see Figures 8 and 9). TABLE 10 Yearly Total for Subprovince Subpr2 Sim Bus Board All Total Cost of No of Yr Stu Stu ‘Stu Investment operation Sc stf 1 92 420 630 28,064,850 20,076,600 6 38 2 166 756 1,134 41,008,850 35,532,000 6 6O 3 228 1,044 1,566 50,891,650 48,126,000 6 8O 6 275 1,044 1,776 9,116,050 52,572,300 8 99 11 417 1,044 2,521 15,956,775 66,818,400 10 112 ,12 476 1,044 2,765 23,989,100 72,401,100 11 123 13 526 1,044 .2,969 29,936,000 76,661,700 11 131 Table 11 extracted from the Table T of Subpr3, displays another set. of information similar to Table 9. Differences occur due resulting services. required, in them as in Bunyan, the to higher bus costs in Subpr3. selection of boarding over busing 3 combined schools are Here at the 11th year, just one will have busing service, but instead of having bus services for three of the other two will have boarding facilities (see Figures 8 and 10). and 101 TABLE 11 Yearly Totals for Subprovince Subpr3 Bused Boarded Combined Total Cost of Number of Year Stu. Student Student Investment operation Sch Staff 1 0 525 525 13.030.175 18.778.800 1 34 2 0 949 949 21.913.475 34,079,100 1 63 3 0 1,320 1,320 29,626,630 47,532,300 1 89 6 0 1,320 1,320 0 47,532,300 1 89 11 62 1,486 2,297 23,453,875 68,822,100 4 128 12 111 1,619 3.086 38,088,250 86,318,400 4 162 13 154 1.733 3.773 52.342.875 101,823,300 4 194 After the subprovince totals, the computer program provides final tables displaying available student places and their unit costs for every simulation year. Figure 11 displays these unit costs per place for the three subprovinces of Kayseri. Finally, after the subprovince reports, the computer program gives province results for Kayseri in the same format as the subprovinces. Evaluation of the Model According to the results of Tables 9-11 and Figures 8-10 for this experiment, 10 minimum size schools can accommodate as many students as two maximum and one medium size schools. There would be several advantages in building smaller schools; (1) more facilities are provided and in (2) school construction earlier years (Figure 9). is spread more evenly throughout the experiment term, (3) operation costs are lower (because operation cost 102 computation is proportional to the school size), (Figure 11 for Subpr2), and (4) instead of building one large boarding school in one location, four boarding schools in four different locations are constructed which should serve rural people better. Cost differences for middle school facilities ’depend on the size of the schools and the types of services provided. In general, investment costs are lower than operating costs. A comparision between busing and boarding shows that investment costs are lower for boarding than for busing; on the other hand, the operating cost of busing is less than boarding (Tables 9-11). In order to see cost versus type-of-service relations, another experiment was carried out. This time it was assumed that minimum size school construction' is preferred in Subpr3 too. Unit cost results of this experiment are displayed in Figure 11 under Subprx. It shows that even with higher bus costs, providing a smaller school is still less expensive than the larger size schools in Bunyan. As in this last case, various experiments can be conducted to answer new questions or questions that arise from earlier experiments. -In other cases, in order to carry out new experiments (for instance, to see the effect of changing bus costs for each different year of the experiment) the computer program has to be modified. 103 From the output of a single experiment, many . questions can be answered for a given situation. Such information includes: 1. The population of the center, peripheral, and - remote settlements and the number of primary graduates. 2.. The year in which a school should be built. 3. Selection of the center settlement (where to build a school). 4. The kind of school to build (local, busing, boarding). 5. The required resources (personnel, facilities). 6. Expenses by various categories. 7. Cost differences when buses, land, building construction, or boarding are provided by the local peOple. Utilizing a different set of experiments with a new set of parameters, the model can provide answers to additional questions. Some typical questions would be: 1. What happens if student progress rates are changed? 2. What happens if migration trends are different? I 3. What if there is a new investment? 4. What if school size is different? 104 5. What if different peripheral settlements are chosen as school sites? These kinds of questions could be used: (a) to understand 'the overall system and its components better, (b) to identify where critical decisions have to be made, and (c) to identify the kinds of data that are required. To obtain reliable results calls for experiments with reliable data. School and cost characteristics may use nationwide averages, but for student distribution in different grades, demographic information, and rural migration characteristics, there should be specific data representing each subprovince. This requires a data collecting agency or additional research to gather. the information. Summary The computer program reads given input data, then calculates a variety of descriptive outputs for each new and existing school within the geographic boundaries of a subprovince, and summary totals for each subprovince and province in the experiment. The model has been applied to Kayseri province to show its utilization in a country like Turkey. Each experiment provides information about where to build schools, their types and year of Opening, resource 105 requirements of personnel, space, equipment, and cash flow. in order to expand middle school facilities in rural parts of-the country. The model is a potential tool for decision makers in planning and studying the costs of providing additional school facilities in rural areas. CHAPTER V SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION OF THE STUDY This Chapter is an overall summary of the preceding four ichapters and is a general overview of a systems approach to identify, analyze, and search for solutions to the expansion of school facilities in rural Turkey. iptroduction to the Problem The Turkish Constitution holds the state responsible for providing its citizens with educational facilities. ,The Ministry of Education carries out this responsibility by two main operations, the administration of its components and the production of materials and trained personnel (Figure 1). Secular and coeducation in Turkish education is designed as a step on a ladder to further education, but the system is not able to meet the [educational needs of rural people and provide equal opportunities in education. The Law of Basic Education requires the expansion of five-year education into eight-year education, and the third five-year plan aims at expanding enrollment in middle schools from 40 to 75 percent in two decades. 106 107 Purpose of the Study The main purpose of this study has been to develop a model with which to examine the costs of expanding the existing school system to one providing eight years of schooling for rural people. A systems approach technique has been utilized to generate a model which can be used to (1) investigate the cost of expanding school facilities and personnel in rural settings and (2) study some alternative solutions to these expansion problems. Operational Working Procedures In the process of developing the model, the following 5 operational working procedures were used: (1) needs analysis to provide a description of the required output, (2) system identification to form a link between the needs and solutions, (3) problem formulation to develop an explicit statement of what the system must provide, (4) generation of system alternatives to provide different ways of structuring the system, and (5) simulation to test alternatives utilizing the computer. Review of Literature A review of literature was carried out to present the systems approach as a methodology for solving educational problems. What may be drawn from the review of literature in Chapter II is summed up as follows. 108 Systems Approach Concept The systems approach is a scientific procedure to describe, analyze, predict or at least obtain some knowledge of a system. It is an explicit description of procedures for representing objects as a system and of methods for their investigation. The technique of a systems approach can be stated as comprising three elements: (1) analysis, (2) design, and (3) documentation. One of the advantages of the technique is attempting to model the real world. Systems Approach in Education The emphasis in educational literature on the use of the systems approach has been on instruction and administration, which includes the areas of school finance, personnel management, and school facilities. A school is recognized as a system since it has the following six elements found in all systems: (1) Sets of interrelated objects, (2) environment, (3) input, (4) process, (5) output/outcome, and (6) feedback. A Systems Approeeh In Chapter III, a systems technique is utilized to investigate the costs of providing facilities and personnel for eight year schooling in rural areas. This Chapter could be summarized as follows. 109 Needs Analysis There are more than 40 million people in Turkey, most of them living in rural areas (Table 1). Rural people are illiterate and poor. There is a scarcity of resources, and the allocation of available resources to [education is inadequate. There are a large number of primary graduates and a scarcity of middle schoOl facilities in rural settings. The enrollment ratios drop from 90 percent of the primary 'age group to only 40 percent of the middle school age group (Table 2, Figure 2). Eight years is presently accepted as the compulsory level of education for the Turkish people by Turkish educators and the State Planning Organization, and that is what is required by the Law of Basic Education. Since the Turkish education system is now neither able to meet the educational and development needs of rural people, nor to provide educational opportunities, there is a major need to expand school facilities in rural areas. System Identification Interacting variables of the rural middle school system which form a link between the needs and a solution to some expansion problems have been identified. These interacting variables are categorized according to their role and effect in the system as system input variables, 110 output variables, and design parameters (Figure 3). Problem Formulation To formulate the problem, interacting variables were studied in detail. In order to keep the model within workable limits certain variables are assumed to be constant or controlled independently, and are omitted from the model of Figure 3. Omitted variables include legislative, cultural, political, and taxing considerations. Variables which are included then are represented by actual data when available, and educated guesses for the remainder. The problem statement then is: (1) expand middle school facilities for rural people in such a way that 75 percent of the rural primary school graduates can be accommodated by the year 2000 A.D., and (2) determine desirable school locations and types. Generation of System Alternatives Several types of schools proposed for rural education are: (1) local, (2) busing, (3) boarding, (4) combined, (5) broadcasting, and (6) mobile schools. However two of them, broadcasting schools and mobile schools, are omitted from consideration here, broadcasting schools because of economic restrictions for construction, and mobile schools because of some unique characteristics that require different model treatment. 111 Simulation Model A model is developed to describe the rural education system as a collection of four components (sectors): student, personnel, physical facilities, and control (Figure 4). It is a mathematical model designed to describe the resources required to produce middle school graduates in rural settings. A six-step procedural algorithm was developed to define possible school sites and potential students (boarding,busing, local) in a subprovince (Figure 5 and 6). The model reads data that describes each school site, subprovince and province, then gives a variety of outputs for each school. Subtotals are then aggregated to the subprovince and province levels. Application of the Model The model developed for this study simulates the expansion of rural middle school education over a time period that can be of any selected length. Loaded into the computer, the model accepts parameters of school and cost characteristics and the demographic information produced by the application of a six-step algorithm. With these inputs the model computes and reports the resource requirements of staff, space, materials and money. 112 The model developed in Chapter III was applied to the province of Kayseri. For every experimental run, various tables were obtained for each school site in the experiment (Appendix C). Tables provided by the computer output give cost and needs information for each busing, .boarding, and combined school. For primary graduates who are not accommodated by. existing or planned schools, additional. boarding results are reported for each subprovince in the experiment. Aggregate information is given for each subprovince and province. The essential aim has been to develop a model and show how to use it. Data accuracy has been of secondary importance and the findings do not reflect the true situation in Kayseri province, but only that there are several ways to use it. For each potential school ’site, and given the long-term population parameters and resource data, the model will directly determine whether additional facilities are needed and. if so. the year in which the school should commence and the type and size of the school which should be constructed. For each school construction or expansion. the model calculates the comparative costs of busing versus boarding non-local students so as to fully utilize the new facilities and selects the school type which will have the lowest unit cost per student. 113 For each subprovince, the model reports a summary of resource requirements for boarding schools to accommodate those students who could not be placed in the local schools. For each new facility, the model presents the investment and operating costs, personnel, land use, and other resource requirements, then reports the subtotals for all new facilities at the subprovince and province levels. The model can be used to conduct a series of experiments by changing the values of some parameters and examining the output reports to determine trends, search for minimum and maximum costs, total enrollments, personnel requirements, etc., under selected conditions. By Just trying to use the model, it is possible to identify the type and accuracy of data that is required to answer questions about costs and resources. This can provide guidance to government agencies for developing a data base, or suggest special studies to develop reasonable assumptions where actual data is not available. Even with the limited data available for Kayseri, it is apparent that different sizes and types of schools are required for different conditions of population, terrain, economic base etc. 11" Conclusion It is hoped that this study may serve to encourage widespread applications of systems approaches to educational problems in Turkey. There is evidence in the literature that the systems approach has been successfully utilized in education problems in many areas from administration to instruction. Benefits of this technique are that it enables (1) looking at a problem from a broad point of view since the interacting components must be identified, (2) simulating the real world by way of modeling, (3) providing a methodology for problem solving and (u) allowing decision makers to see alternative ways of doing things. In Turkey and developing countries, the systems approach may play an important role in the usage of 'limited resources by providing the best combination of capital, machine and energy. When there is a concern for- a new organization or reorganization, or when there is a problem related to any component of an education system, at any level, this technique can be useful in searching for solutions. The model can help decision makers at any level of administrative structure in Turkey, from subprovince to central government. By following the steps in Appendix B, governments of other countries, even individuals who want to consider opening a private school, can utilize this 115 model. Provincial authorities at subprovince and province levels, can use this model for middle school expansion in their rural regions. The State Planning Organization and planning units in the Ministry of Education can use the model in their planning. Any unit that utilizes the model should try various experiments in order to find better combinations -of resources for supplying requirements. Such experiments may include different computer runs with different source data and parameters to examine the output reports and determine trends, costs, total enrollments, personnel requirements, etc., under selected conditions. The accuracy of simulation results is dependent upon the input data. There must be reliable data for demographic, migration, population, geographic characteristics and infrastructure of a region for each subprovince. This requires the existence and emphasizes the importance of data collecting agencies. The Ministry of Education, the State Planning Organizatio and the State Institute of Statistics are the major data collecting agencies in Turkey. They use projections and sampling techniques to obtain information about the population and migration characteristics of the country. All educational data should be gathered by the Ministry of Education and the remainder by the State Institute of Statistics but the data collection should be 116 coordinated to provide fast and accurate information, retain consistency and avoid duplication. In a case of missing data, a number of experiments can be conducted applying minimum'and maximum values to understand its effect and estimate it better. Immigration, emigration and student distributions (dropouts and repeat rates) are some of the parameters where data collection may not provide direct values. In such cases further research is recommended to identify these trends for rural people regionally. For a better utilization of the model, further experiments are suggested to identify data items that; (1) are not gathered' accurately (2) require additional_ research and (3) should be collected at the various levels (subprovince, province, and nation). The model developed here is 'a deterministic and descriptive simulation model. It is a potential tool for the expansion of education facilities in rural areas, and can help decision makers_ from the subprovince level to province and central government levels. The State Planning Organization, any planning unit in the Ministry of Education, any other country, or even any individual who considers opening a private school can benefit from the model. In order to apply the model to any situation, it is only necessary to follow the procedures in Appendix B. APPENDIX A 118 DEFINITION OF TERMS To understand the most.frequently used terms in the model, and especially those whose meanings may differ in the Turkish culture, the following terms are defined. Basic Education: Eight years of education which is defined by the Law of Basic Education. It includes primary and middle school education. Busing Distance: Less than one hour traveling time between two settlements, corresponding to peripheral settlements. Components: The parts which comprise a system and which are selected to represent specific elements of the real world. Constraints: Actions or conditions external to the system which restrict other actions-or variables. Control: To bring a system into a desired state or keep it in a desired state. Design: The act of planning a system so that it lachieves the desired output, when the desired input is at hand. Discrete-tigg: Specific instants of time. Dynamic Model: "the time-dependent structure of a model: i.e. The rules for moving from one system state to another" [1]. 119 Environment: The surrounding situtation or circumstances in which a system operates, from which it receives its purpose and resources, and to which it is responsible for the use of the ‘resources and for the adequacy of its output [2]. Feedback: .One of the 'inputs to an operation within the system that is a sampled portion of the output of the system. General Directorate: The highest operational administrative unit in the Turkish government structure. Input: The items, of whatever form (labor, goods, capital), that is accepted by a system. E1233: A high school which provides ninth through eleventh grade schooling in Turkey. Middle School: A Turkish school analogous to "Junior high school." Made}: The representation of a system. The Ministry of Education: A state organization which deals with all educational activities for the state. The Minister of Education is the head of this office, and is a member of the Cabinet. Open System: A system that operates under controls which are independent of its own output. Output: Product or results of a system. Parameter: A variable whose. assigned value is changed to reflect different conditions of the system, for 120 different experiments, but which remains constant throughout any one trial. Peripheral Settlements: Settlements which are within busing distance of a center settlement. Province: Administratively Turkey is divided into provinces, with a governor as head administrator of each province. He also acts as the representative of the Ministry of Education, assisted by the provincial Director of Education in educational issues, although he is appointed by the Ministry of Interior. Provincial Authorities: At the province level, the governor and Director of education. In a subprovince, 'the subgovernor and education officer. Remote Settlements: Settlements which are not within busing distance to any center settlement, and whose primary graduates are subject to boarding. Rural Settlement: A community with fewer than ten thousand inhabitants. A A rural community is an aggregate of farm and village peOple inhabiting in an area limited by ease of transportation which makes frequent contacts possible, and unified by such bonds as common beliefs, common language, similarty of purposes, traditions, manners and customs,common interests, face-to-face relationships, effective leadership and experience in achieving goals [3]. In Turkey, according to the first article of the Village Law of 1923, population centers with less than two thousand inhabitants are considered rural. As in most develOping countries, Turkey has some settlements which 121 have more than two-thousand population but retain rural characteristics. The law of 192“ has not been changed, but in daily communication and in recent governmental official usage a population of Iten thousand is now considered the upper limit for a community to be classified as rural [u]. Simulation: The process of manipulating the variables of a model and noting the resulting condition of the system as described by the model. State Planning Organization: a planning office which is responsible to the Prime Minister for preparing advisory five-year plans for social , and economic development as a guide to public and private investors. State of a System: the description of a system at a selected instant of time during the simulation process. Static Model: "the time-independent structure of a model: i.e., the framework within which system states are defined" [5]. Subprovince: Each province is further divided into subprovinces governed by subgovernors who are assisted by education officers in educational issues. Districts and villages are subdivisions of subprovinces. District officer and sub- governors are appointed by the Ministry of Interior while the village headmen are elected by eligible village voters [6]. 122 Subsystem: a particular portion of a larger system. System: A set of identifiable functional relationships among specified elements used to describe an orderly whole. Systems Analysis: A technique for mathematically identifying, representing, and studying the interrelationships of the parts which comprise a system. Systems Approach: A strategy that considers all elements, functional relationships and external influences of a system in order to define an operational system. Threshold Population: "the threshold population is the minimum total population sufficient to establish a school with minimum acceptable capacity in terms of student spaces or potential enrollment" [7]. Turkish Lira:. the basic Turkish ‘monetary unit (TL). In January 1980, 48 TL equaled one American dollar. Village: In this study, it is a settlement which has an elected headman and at least one hundred-fifty inhabitants. FOOT NOTES [1] A. Alan B. Pritsker, and Philip J. Kiviat, Simulation With Gasp II. Englewood Cliffs, N. J.: Prentice-Hall, Inc., 1969, p. 291. [2] Bela H. Banathy, Instructional Systems. Palo Alto, Calif.: Fearon Publishers, 1968, p. 88. [3] [u] [5] [6] 123 Clifford P. Archier, Elementary Education in Rural Areas. New York: the Ronald Press Company, 1955), p. 27. State Planning Organization, Republic of Turkey, Third Five Year Development Plan 1973-1977. Ankara: 1973. Cavit Orhan Tutengil, "Turkiyenin Sosyo-economik Ve Kulturel Gelismesi Acisindan -Kucuk Koy-ve- Buyuk Koy- Sorunu,” Turkiyenin Iktipadi Gelismgf Meseleleri (Problems of Turkish Economic Development). Istanbul: Sermet Matbaasi, 1971. Pritsker, op. cit., p. 29". Andreas M. Kazamias, Education and phe Guest for Mpgernity in Turkey. London: C. Tinling and Co. Ltd., 1966. UNESCO, World Survey of Education. Vol. II, Primary Education, Switzerland: UNESCO, 1953. CENTO, Symposium on the Role of Local Government in , National Development. Ankara: Cento, 196E. [7] William T. S. Gould, guidelines for School Location Planning- World Bank Staff Working Paper No. 30§. Washington D.C.: the World Bank, 1978. APPENDIX B 125 SYMBOLS AND UTILIZATION OF THE MODEL The symbols used for the input parameters of the program model are given below in the order in which they appear on data cards, together with corresponding values, definitions, and a step by step explanation of the model usage for experiments. Costs are given in Turkish glira and areas in square meters. An experiment would be one execution of the model program which produces enrollment and cost information for each of any number of school sites that have been selected, together with summary information for each subprovince, and a province grand total. To conduct an experiment follow the seven steps cited below (formats are shown in parentheses): Step 1. Select a province to. study and supply card 1 according to the kind of experiment. Card 1 (1X,2I2,I3,2A10) contains; proflag experiments for a province (zu), subpro- vince (=1), a new individual school (=2), or an old school (=3), nofsprv number of subprovinces (=1 when proflag is 1, 2 or 3). . year length of simulation run, provnam province name. Step 2. Supply card 2 with constant parameters, primarily the physical design characteristics of a school as determined by the control unit. 126 Card 2 (3I2.213.9IZ,HF3.1,3F4.2,5F5.3) contains; minc1 avnc1 manc1 area nowd minbord minbus ae abo ab acl usp usbo nbs 38 aes uss ar ash nds nbos adm g1 g2 83 pi minimum number of classrooms for first grade, average number of classrooms for first grade, ‘ maximum number of classrooms for first grade, total area for: physical education,library, canteen, warehouse, etc., number of working days in a school year, least number of students for a boarding service, least number of students for busing service, eating area/student boarding area/student bus area/bus classroom area/student utility supply/staff member utility supply/boarding student number of busing staff/bus garden area/student extra area/student utility supply/student area/staff member. shower area/person number of staff/student number of boarding staff/boarding student number of administrators/student number of group 1 teachers (Turkish litera- ture, mathematics, social science, general science)/classroom, number of group 2 teachers ( physical edu- cation, music, vocational arts and jobs)/ classroom, number of group 3 teachers (two subjects)/ classroom, inflation rate Step 3. Supply card 3, the subprovince head card, with population characteristics of each subprovince utilizing the algorithm in Chapter III to identify: A) peripheral B) school and center city of the subprovince and its settlements, and omit this city, each rural settlement which has a middle its peripheral settlements, 127 C) each potential school site center settlement, and its peripheral settlements, and D) remote settlements. Card 3 (5F6.3,412,216,2A10) contains; br birth rate- dr death rate inm ' immigration to rural settlements oum emigration to urban centers rag primary school graduates as percent of total population spr school size preference nss number of settlements in a subprovince with (nss=0 when proflag=2, nss=1 when proflag=3), nls number of settlements in a subprovince for possible school site (nls=1 when proflag=2, nls=0 when proflag=3). noc number of centers in subprovince, pobo ' number of students subject to boarding in a subprovince, pobu total peripheral population in subprovince, suprna subprovince name (school name if proflag: 2 or 3). Step H. Supply card 4 with annual admission rate as a percentage of the primary school graduates for each subprovince, in each year of the study. card u (20FH.2) contains: .pp p(n) admission to the first grade in the year Step 5. Supply card 5 and 6 with facilities and operation costs plus student progression rate parameters, which may be different for each subprovince. Card 5 (2I7,216,3IS,HF6.3) contains: buc bus cost/bus brk bus repair kit set cost/busing school, tetc teacher training cost/teacher. setc various teaching aid costs (physics, biology, chemistry,workroom tools, and library set), be staff benefits/staff, emi average employee income/month eein average extra work income/day busd depreciation rate of bus, no bd fd tak card cc lc bouc ucp ucs buomc boomc daomc cs rp1 rp2 sr dor1 dor2 qit trs(J) 128 depreciation rate of buildings, depreciation rate of other durable goods, a classroom can accommodate tak percent more or less, 6 (815.12.9Fu.2) contains; construction cost/m sq. land purchase cost/m sq. boarding utility cost/student personnel utility cost/person utility supply cost/student bus Operation-maintenance cost/bus, boarding oper.-maint. cost/boarding student, school operation-maintenance cost/student, classroom size- number of students in a classroom, repeat rate of grade 1 repeat rate of grade 2 sex ratio (male/total students) dropout rate from grade 1 dropout rate from grade 2 personnel quitting/year transfer students to grade 3, 3:1-3. Step 6. Supply card 7 with demographic information for each settlement which has a middle school (identified in step 3-B). Card 7 (1X,A10,2I6,3F5.3,12,21u,1X,FH.2) contains: setnam spo bup inm oum invm inyear schp1 tschp 2 name of the center settlement, population of the center settlement, population of peripheral settlements, immigration rate to rural settlements, emigration rate to urban centers, immigration to the center settlement due to an investment, year that investment will begin, students in the first grade, total students in school, local students ratio in the first grade. Step 7. Supply card 8 for each center settlement which is school site (step 3-C). When 'nss' is zero 'card 8' replaces 'card 7'. When there is more than one subprovince in an experiment, the information on card u 129 through card 8 is supplied (nosprv times) for each subprovince. Card 8 (1X,A10,216,3F6.3,12) contains: setnam name of the center settlement, spo population of the center settlement, bup population of peripheral settlements, inm immigration rate to rural settlements, oum emigration rate to urban centers, invm immigration to the center settlement due to an investment, inyear year that investment will begin, For a typical usage of the model, the experimentor would run several experiments determined by what he wants to know, then examine the output, modify the control data to reflect changes or additional cases and repeat this until a collection of experiments have been completed which provide the desired answer. APPENDIX C 131 TABLES SELECTED FROM COMPUTER OUTPUT Some Tables are selected from the computer output to represent the results of the experiment. Headings are explained next, before displaying the Tables. Side headings for Table A-1: pop.- year - population vs year of simulation, remote population of remote settlements, peripheral population of peripheral settlements, center population of center settlement, boarding p(n) percent of the primary gradu- ates from remote settlements, local p(n) percent of the local primary graduates, busing p(n) percent of the peripheral pri- mary graduates, in old sch. first grade students in an existing school (omitted if there is no school). Side Headings for Table A-2: year year of simulation, boarding remote's p(n) percent primary gradu- . ates who are unaccommodated yet, busing peripheral's p(n) percent graduates who are unaccommodated yet, . local center's p(n) percent primary gradu- ates who are unaccommodated yet. Side Headings for Table A-;: year years of simulation, boarding p(n) percent of a subprovince's pri- mary graduates who are not schooled yet. Column Headings for Table B-1: yr year that school is in operation, bused students students who benefit from bus services, investment cost total cash (TL) required to provide bus services (i.e. bus, land, etc.,) operation cost total cash (TL) required to operate bus services, 132 busing stf number of personnel required to operate ' bus services, needed buses number of required buses, bus cost total cash (TL) to buy buses, bus area total needed area for busing (garage..), land cost total cash (TL) to buy required land, building cost total cash (TL) to construct building for busing operation, utility cost total cash (TL) to provide utilities for busing, ope/maint cost total yearly cash (TL) to operate and maintain busing, salary total yearly cash (TL) paid for busing staff. Column Headings for Table B-2: yr year of simulation, boarded students students who use boarding facilities, investment cost total cash (TL) to provide boarding, operation cost total cash (TL) to operate boarding services, ' boarding stf number of personnel for boarding, utility cost total cash (TL) to'provide utilities for boarding, board area required land for boarding, land cost , total cash (TL) to buy required land, building cost total cash (TL) to construct buildings for boarding, ‘ - ope/maint cost total yearly cash (TL) to operate and maintain boarding services, salary total yearly cash (TL) paid for person- nel in boarding service. Column Headings for Table C: yr year that school is in operation, combined students toval students in a school (it could - be local+busing+boarding), investment cost total cash (TL) to provide schooling, operation cost total cash (TL) to operate a school, school adm number of administrators, school stf A personnel in a school who are neither teacher nor administrator, group- teach . number of teachers for related groups, class rooms number of classrooms in a school, school area total required area for schooling, land cost total cash (TL) to buy required land, building cost total cash (TL) to construct building, faculty cost total cash (TL) spent to train faculty, utility cost ope/maint cost salary Column Headipgs for Table T: Y bused stu investm cost operation cost number-of stf number-of bus number-of sc board stu investm cost operation cost board stf board so combin stu investm cost operation cost number-of stf numberof tch number-of sc stf prorated inv. operation cost total 133, cash (TL) to provide necessary utilities for schooling, total yearly cash (TL) to operate and maintain schooling services, total yearly cash (TL) paid for person- nel in a school. year of simulation, total total total total total total total total total total total bused students for a given year, required investment for busing, busing operation cost, busing staff, buses, number of busing schools, boarded students in a given year, required investment for boarding, boarding operation cost, boarding staff, boarding school in operation, all the students in the system, total total total total total total total Side Headings for Table Y: year in old sch. busing ' boarding combined uncopestu cost for combined school, cost for schooling operation, staff for schooling, teachers required for schooling, number of school, _ number of staff in services, cost prorated investment cost, cost of operation of all services. simulation years, available student places in old schools, available student places for.busing, available student places for boarding, available student places in schools, unit cost per student place. 1311 .. o H; .2 a..r..um a .59.: t... .___.... 9.. .L 3?: ~ ~ . o o o o o a o a: no a: .a o: an on a. n" n. u .«s_. . _. q a s 0. us an . no em oa— n~_ mu. nn— oo~ a: no. ~._ a“. :q— n a:.s:: on» an» nan on» on» can n—o ooo oeo a.o ooo coo o_m «an own ono coo ~oo one as» " az.=z.se 3 o. .2 Z a. a. o. 2 . a. 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HA Cu nu cu nu Na _— o— o o h o n o n a u u «gm» , mu—¢:a¢¢o pc¢2~¢n 02¢ w2o_bcdatos ~o¢ U404» wind—um u >2uzuappuu xxnaam u uux—2octnam .2um>ocs zen pzomux uu2_>oxnc:w 1149 odoozum 62—:x¢.:.«g ”4. ”Ja.. confine: oooonnow 960005 Quechua aeouwol coconnf can! kn . wash «rah n—ouw o m eoomonow oacc¢~=~ awn. n ..nouaa ..oa.... ns...a o..o~. cacao“. eoe-oo «flea pa o..m o..n ~o.n~ o n eon.an._ n...omn. w.o N ..nuna. ....o.. o~.n_n ...ooo ....on. .o..n.. .n‘. a. .~.n .~.n .n.¢ » a ..nnooo n._n~na awn . . .mau page hmou . _mou .mou .uc‘ «zoo: zU¢u. :u.u. 39.“. a.» 29‘ _mou _mgu n.2ua;_m a. >¢¢Jqu ~2~<2suso bb—J—ha >p439¢u 02—Oduaa o22~ Ouz_axou muo<¢u U2» 2— ma—maa ownu rvo man «as w— ~2ux~mu>2~ upaawuz az~oz<00\92—wao uoaduzu hoz on mpaamuc unuxp uu2u>0¢acam max» 2— — ¢mou hmou pmou ¢u2< hmou mum hmcu pmou mutucapw 2» >2¢J¢m >2~¢:\uca ozuaa—DD a2<4 02(99 >b~aupa uz~ox2u auax 2~ u2—22~uua hanmux uz—nx¢oo «on Ham‘— ocn on» Fan can finn ONO Nut Onfl «90 :00 etc oht tun «an own oN¢ one «at run . won "92—32(0: ............--.'---"."".'--l.--.'-.-....---...........-.....-..-'-.'...---..-...--.--..--..-.-.-----.-.-".-...---.".. ....."I on an an nu cu on On n— a. an on o c p o n c n N a u x ouo¢¢¢2_¢L not Uda¢h xxsnau upoxuc so; 02~c¢«oo 4<2o~>uoo« «as pxonuz 150 .wzomuc ~02~202am3m no arm asap“ gonna Joann cosh“ cuppa oosnfl cuppa Gonna onoou N—oen uéocn ~oman «omen uoflen «omen donon ~¢ndn uonen pncon apnea n a_nu;ou:: «up» uphn nunn mph» nhnn nhnn nnnn nss» «can hanw ownu cwnu own“ oun— onn~ own— cum. ownu wcr awn u aux—zzau nun“ ansu nnn- «nag anus nah. unhn nnn— o—du econ ounn ownu owna onn- oun— awnn ewnu awn— $¢o mun u uz_a:¢c; onu can on" on. ova on“ can on. man no a o a o o a o a o o . 92—maa how #9. nan no“ 90— so“ pan pa. bra pod pan 90.. bad stu pan boa s9~ ha. ho“ ho_ u ozum 94: rm .......-.....I...'...........‘.-..'I-.-.-I...'.....'...............‘U...'I'...-.....I'-..‘--IU'-.".I-'.."-'II....'.I--I'.'-IIIIIIIII 2 a: 2 .2 .2 2 I .2 2 3 3 o a s . .... o n ... . u .2: otocaazm aux» 2~ mbzuoapa acozun UdOO—x con munddt U4014-124 > Hand» canon-nag than—nu O~ c and cu oohoaoo~ a anhn n on oooanoon o nnpu — n n aoocop— o tau an connmoqo— nsnn—hw 9» c and ON ao~onooh a nap» n on oooonoon a nu- a n n ococon— a or— ad sonn«o—ou ahnuahw an 0 man aw oohcoeoh o nhhn n on occanoon 6 ans“ a n n coaco~u a :0. cm conn~a~o— annnnpn ah o nun ow ochxeooh o nhsn n on coccncon o nnpu a n n eoocchu e on— w. oonn~c—au span—s“ on c «an on oosaooah e nss» n on aooonoon o anhu — n n ccocanu o :s. a. confine—on shaman“ ah 0 man on cesarean o nun» n an oooonoon a nnpa a n n uneven. o ¢nu n. conn~auo~ u~nn-~ Op 0 mud on ocnomoah a unhn n on coconoon a an”. a n n cocoo~u o os~ o. o annauou span—nu oh 0 nu“ am oosasOOh mhuooaoc nhhn. n on oooancon ooaamhw. nnhu u n n oaaco~u coauvom ¢nu n c oo—ncc connno« 00 0 mm 9N ocuooqhm ammonaon «can n so oowphooa con—bru wweu u N N ocean—u cocoa—m ..u N. oc—wwzao zo—m$¢_ on 0 he an coonocmc nhnuhhou seam n no oo—oohnu oooovou area a u a acumen echuomn ma _— oonmnnpo nhncmh no u at o economow a can” u on conncrww o own" a e o o a o :— oonwnmpc annomh ac — ‘0 O coonanom o awnn — an oonhowmm a own— a a o a a c r oon~na~o announ at u «c o ooonmnon o own“ a .an acmhcmmw a can“ 9 o o a a o : can~aa~c mhnamh do u at e eoomonow a swan a on oonhowan a own. a o o o a 2 ~ oon~nmur nnnzwp cc — no a oooaouru o own— a on eonsooww o own— 0 o o o a a a oonNnnho apnowh a: u no a oaomomcw o ounu u an oouht¢ww a own” 9 o a o a c n conunnho n~no- no u no a cocoancw e cwnu — on canhccmm o ewnu : o o a o 9 ¢ conunnho nsncun me u «c a coononcm ooocvsou ounn u on oonpoawu conuno¢ own— a o o o a c n eoaohacn «ocean on n ow a cantons“ unavomnu 9:» a cm acetates oonrcna 00¢ a a o o a o w one-hue” ‘cOFcun an - om n cannaca abunwmo man a mu oomnaom oeehonn awn o o o o a o a paou hmcu o>2— spa u” :u— mum huou pmcu awn on up” bmou umou Spa Um was m—m pmcu pwou D»n » zonp¢¢uaa curtxoxm 56.290232 2a—~¢¢umo 2pmu>2~ znuxou 92(00 zo—hdxuao 2~mu>2~ an‘oo mooxuotaz 20~p<¢uao 2pmu>z— eumac C O I a... rccxxau 4ao co. co... «doozum ou2~azoo «a; ua<»9h cc... cocoococ «4:»0» 92—o¢a¢— xttaau u o>occnan com uddbap haxcur h Hand» BIBLIOGRAPHY BIBLIOGRAPHY Ackoff, Russel L., and Sasieni, Maurice W. 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