«EFL! - -163 Iowan—Id i“ ~" was [[23er 3211/3817 ' . r This is to certify that the thesis entitled Manpower Planning in Police Organizations: State of the Art and Feasibility presented by Gary W. Cordner has been accepted towards fulfillment of the requirements for Ph.D. degreein Social Science Major prof Date—May 5 . 1980 0-7639 Illfllllllllflllllllllilllll 3 1293 10677 4809 OVERDUE FINES: 25¢ per day per item RETURNING LIBRARY MATERIALS: Place in book return to remove charge from circulation records . ”60250213003 . mil? . , ‘ t '11!“ M ,H .‘IANPOHER PLANNING IN POLICE ORGANIZATIONS: ‘STATE OF THE ART AND FEASIBILITY 17" BY 1 Gary H. Cordner The 1 :51“ '835 Ml i . 41; rum. in; 1 yeah; r Ac: . A misszmnon F“ ‘ Smeitted to ‘ Nichigan State University ‘5,tfieT futf111ment of the requirements for the degree of ‘herasmoaaor PHILOSOPHY CEEiTW .11. I ‘1 School of Criminal Justice “VB 12min.” :5 7-935 mafiaw; 1"."- ABSTRACT . . MANPOWER PLANNING IN POLICE ORGANIZATIONS: ,. 1 , STATE OF THE ART AND FEASIBILITY ‘ 3y ‘. 1 By Gary 1:. Cordner w 3: The purpose of the study was to explore the state of the 1&3?” and feasibility of manpower planning for police organizations. 5 ‘igjoadly defined, manpower planning refers to efforts undertaken in 1 iiégfganizations to determine the numbers and kinds of employees " *lléeded, and how best to utilize them. How such determinations are 3:. 611 ’ £11.99?” made in police agencies is not well known, so that one L1:11? the construct "manpower planning." Data were . Gary w. Cordner survey sent to the 49 state police agencies and the 201 largest city and county police departments in the United States. The usable response rate for the mail survey was 65.6%. With respect to present efforts in police organizations, it was found that a considerable amount of manpower-related activity is undertaken, but that little manpower planning is done. Police officials responding to the survey reported that their agencies collected most of the specific kinds of data, and undertook most of the specific activities, about which questions were asked. This high level of effort was generally corroborated by information collected during interviews at a variety of police organizations. Despite this high level of activity, however, the orientation in police agencies was clearly one of problem solving within personnel administration, rather than one of manpower planning. Little goal- orientation, forecasting, or extensive search activity was found, and planning was further inhibited by the tendency to regard much of the police organization and its environment as not manipulable. Viewed as problem solving or decision making, rather than as planning, the manpower activities of police agencies still exhibit some serious deficiencies. The different facets of human resource activity tend to be taken up disjointedly, due both to the cognitive complexity of the whole "numbers and kinds of people and how to use them" problem and to the division of labor in police (“apartments. Activities that are obviously interdependent on a conceptual level are performed nearly independently in practice, vv‘l th little coordination or integration. These tendencies are Gary H. Cordner #. ._I v. glued at the resolution of narrow issues. . 1’): Factors that were generally associated with more manpower- , ' jitlated activity in police agencies included better economic condi- tions, greater recent changes in the number of allocated positions, .;_ more competition from other employers for qualified applicants, and in. .u r". -‘ greater perceived rationality in determinations about the numbers ‘f and kinds of people to employ. Two conditions that were associated , t _ t with less reported manpower activity were more union constraint on .‘zpersonnel processes, and greater pressure to increase the employment ‘ 1. of women and minorities. With these and other factors statistically j;f¢0ntrolled, more manpower-related activity in police agencies was f. — Eissociated with a greater reported ability to attract and retain the J itinds of employees believed needed. ' g; 31' Within certain fundamental limitations, police manpower— ‘ : ‘geleted activities could feasibly improve both as planning and as h . - 7" re» integrated problem solving. The political nature of police Dedicated to my sister, Gwen, and to my parents "'31 .1 'u, 131111.» 11*— H;S‘wrmré .c ~ 81%! '31"? 1‘ "-11. and mt the Qseaw ' 1 1111 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This study of manpower planning in police organizations would not have been possible without the cooperation, assistance, and guidance of a large number of police and other government officials. Guarantees of anonymity prevent me from disclosing the names of interviewees and survey respondents, but the contributions made by them were obviously of critical importance. The same can be said of the experts who aided in interview site selection, and of the individuals who helped us gain access to busy officials in each site. Four law enforcement executives who can be acknowledged by name provided letters of support that undoubtedly enhanced acceptance of the mail survey: Police Commissioner William G. Hegarty of New Rochelle, New York; Director Gerald L. Hough of the Michigan State Police; Sheriff William Lucas of Wayne County, Michigan; and Superintendent of Police James C. Parsons of New Orleans. Thanks are extended to these and the unnamed officials for their generous and irreplaceable contributions. The data for this study come from a portion of the Manpower Planning Development Project of the School of Criminal Justice, Mfichigan State University. I would like to thank the Director of the project, John K. Hudzik, and the Director of the School, George T. Felkenes, for providing the research opportunity and for facilitating and guiding my efforts. The research was also greatly facilitated financially by the Law Enforcement Assistance Adminis- tration (LEAA), which partially supported the Manpower Planning Development Project with grant number 78-CD-AX-0004. Particular gratitude is owed Price Foster and Jean Moore of the Office of Criminal Justice Education and Training of LEAA. I am especially indebted to the members of my dissertation committee for their assistance and guidance in the preparation of this document. My chairman, John Hudzik, critiqued each succeeding draft of each section, and both provided good ideas and identified many of my bad ones. He took direct interest in the dissertation and in my progress, to my benefit. I thank him very much. The remaining members of my committee also made inestimable contribu- tions. Ken Christian worked with me on the project from the start, and provided detailed comments on the dissertation draft. Cleo Cherryholmes took particular interest in my attempts to make infer- ences about feasibility and about policy implications, and conse- quently forced me to think much harder than I otherwise would have. Neal Schmitt carefully previewed my data analysis, preventing and correcting several blunders, and also made numerous constructive suggestions that greatly improved all parts of the dissertation. In addition, I was honored to have Peter Manning as the Dean's representative at my oral examination. My work on the Manpower Planning Development Project was Iade enjoyable, and perhaps slightly productive, with the aid of my colleagues, including Tim Bynum, Ken Christian, Steve Edwards, Maryellen Geyer, Jack Greene, Dave Hayeslip, and John Hudzik. Their encouragement and good natures made working almost a pleasure. I must single out Steve, my office-mate, and Tim and Jack, my road trip comrades, for their support and ministrations to the soul. They are the finest of friends and colleagues. Thanks are due a number of my teachers for their direct and indirect contributions to my ability to write, think, and analyze (such as it is). In the hope that they are not embarrassed too greatly by their product, I especially thank George Berkley, Cleo Cherryholmes, Terry Dungworth, Carl Frost, Larry Hoover, Jack Hunter, Edward Lloyd, Terry Moe, Chuck Ostrom, Neal Schmitt, and Evelyn Stopak. I offer my special thanks, heart-felt gratitude, and pro- foundest admiration to my teacher, friend, and guide, Robert Sheehan. His has been a deep moral and intellectual influence. It has been my tremendous benefit and good luck to find myself under his wing, and I hope to prove to have been worthy of his faith. In particular, I promise him that I will eventually return to that real world to which we are both committed. Finally, I must thank family and friends for their support over the years, and apologize to them for frequent and extended absences. I have missed them much more than they know or suspect. Most of all, thanks and deepest gratitude to my sister, my mother, and my late father. TABLE OF CONTENTS afi:1'~:0FtTABLES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . x jiffsr or PIGURES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xiv eighhpter . ' t I. THE PROBLEM . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Introduction . 1 Purpose . . . . . . . . 5 Framework . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 Research Questions . . . . . . . . . . . 10 Overview . . . . . . . . 22 "3111. REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE . . . . . . . . . 25 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 Planning . . . . . . . . . . 26 Definitions of Planning . . . . . . . . 26 Varieties Of Planning . . . . . . . 30 Processes Related to Planning. . . . . . . 34 Justifications of Planning. . . . . . . . 38 Planning Theory . . . . . . . . . . . 39 V'The Planning Process . . . . . . . 44 Limitations on the Planning Process . . . . . 47 g The Planning Process Reconsidered . . . . . 50 JThe Action Setting Of Planning . . . . . . 60 * Planning in Organizations . . . . . . . . 67 n er Planning. . . . . . . 72 _finitions of Manpower Planning. . . . . 75 Manpower Planning Process . 80 1HMMpwer Planning in Practice 88 rganizations . . 93 . . . 98 . . . 101 el Adm1nistration . . 104 I O O O O ‘07 vi. F" Chapter Environment . Manpower Planning Summary . III. DESIGN OF THE STUDY Introduction . . Research Questions . Interview Component Interview Sample Interview Topics Interview Analysis . Survey Component Survey Sample Survey Measures . . Manpower Planning Activity . . Manpower Planning Data Collection . Agency Size . . Economic Conditions Agency Size Change . Equal Employment Pressure Union Constraint . Civil Service Control . Competition for Applicants . . Agency Level . . . . . . . Influence . . . . Anticipation . . Rational Factors and Numbers of Positions Political Factors and Numbers of Positions . Internal Rational Considerations and Kinds of People . External Rational Considerations and Kinds . of People . External Political Considerations and Kinds. of People . . Agency Ability to Attract and Retain . Survey Analysis . . . . Summary . . . . IV. ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION Introduction . Univariate Analysis 2 : Extent of Manpower Planning Factors Affecting Extent of Manpower Planning : Agency Size . . . . . Economic Conditions . . vii Page 110 181 181 182 186 190 190 192 208 208 209 1" Chapter Agency Size Change . . Equal Employment Pressure Union Constraint . . Civil Service Control . Competition for Applicants Agency Level . Summary of Meausres . Factors Reciprocally Related to Extent of Manpower Planning . . Influence . Anticipation . Rational Factors and Numbers of Positions Political Factors and Numbers of Positions . Internal Rational Considerations and Kinds of People . . . External Rational Considerations and Kinds of People. External Political Considerations and Kinds of People . . Summary of Measures . . Agency Ability to Attract and Retain . Bivariate Analysis . . Intercorrelations Between Manpower Planning Measures Factors Affecting Extent of Manpower Planning. Factors Reciprocally Related to Extent of Manpower Planning . Intercorrelations Between Reciprocal Factors Factors Affecting Agency Ability to Attract and Retain . . . . . . . Multivariate Analysis . Factors Affecting Extent of Manpower Planning. Factors Reciprocally Related to Extent of Manpower Planning Factors Affecting Agency Ability to Attract and Retain Summary . . CONSTRAINTS 0N FEASIBILITY Introduction . Manpower Planning and Policy Making Manpower Planning as Planning . Manpower Planning as Problem Solving. viii 237 241 243 243 246 252 273 281 283 288 290 305 311 315 320 320 321 324 334 "“ ‘, enditions and Constraints . . . . . . . . . 339 ‘ ‘ Agency Size and Size Change . . . . . . 339 .FEconomic Conditions and Competition . . . . . 341 ., ‘ . .' I v , 1: Agency Level . Equal Employment'Pressure. . . . . I I I Z 343 Union Constraints “,1 Civil Service Control . . . . . . . . . 348 ‘ 1 '2. Inf1uence and Anticipation . . . . . . . . 349 . "“‘Rationality and Politics . . . . . . . . . 351 1'“ Summary . . . . . . . . . 353 SUMMARY, CONCLUSIONS, AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS . . . 359 Introduction . . . . . . 359 Purpose and Method of the Study. I I . . . . . 359 Findings and Conclusions . State of the Art . . . . . . 362 Conditions and Constraints : : : Z Z I I I 365 Feasibility PoliCy ImplicatiOns and Recommendations : : I 2 I 376 L-imitations of the Study. Recommendations . . . . . . 384 ix LIST OF TABLES Page Description of Police Agency Interview Sample . . . 153 I.é3i2 Description of Police Agency Survey Sample and “1‘4 Response Rates . . . . 166 11.1,.1 Extent of Manpower Planning Activity Undertaken by ‘ Police Agencies . . . 193 T2134.2 Extent of Manpower Planning Data Collection and ‘ ~ Infbrmation Importance for Police Agencies . . . 198 ‘:afla3- Description Summary Statistics for Extent of Manpower Planning Activity and Data Collection in Police Agencies . . . . . 202 " 2.4 Number of Full-time Allocated Sworn Position in ' ' Responding Sample Police Agencies . . . . . . 209 General Economic Conditions in Jurisdictions of Responding Police Agencies . . . . . . 210 Changes in Number of Allocated Position During Last Two Years in Responding Police Agencies . . . 211 : ~'-":“Eciu;al Employment Opportunity Pressure on Police ' Agencies to Increase Employment of Women and/or Ninorities . . . . 212 A jiEXtent of Union Constraint on Personnel Matters in , Police Agencies . . . . 214 xtent of Civil Service Control Over Police Agency ,. Personnel Matters . . . . . 218 Tfi ition With Other Employers for Qualified Job licants . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 220 tent.of Manpower Planning in Police Agencies . . 222 - . ‘ ' 1. . .3 W4“ . f . . -. 1 l" . 3L 1 .4‘ ' ' O 1111 O -11. , o “.H.- -.rg 1.71 ”"1 1 4.14 4.15 4.16 4.17 4.20 *1i74.21 Police Agencies "Kendall' s Tau Correlations Between Categories of Manpower Planning Activity and Factors Affecting Extent of Manpdwer Planning lKendall' s Tau Correlations Between Categories of tManpower Planning Data Collection and Factors jAffecting Extent of Manpower Planning. xi Pelice Agency Ability to Influence Changes in Numbers of Allocated Positions . . Police Agency Ability to Anticipate Changes in Numbers of Allocated Positions . Importance of Rational Factors for Changes in Numbers of Allocated Positions . Importance of Political Factors for Changes in Numbers of Allocated Positions . . Importance of Internal Rational Considerations for Kinds of People Determinations . Importance of External Rational Considerations for Kinds of People Determinations . Importance of External Political Considerations for Kinds of People Determinations . Descriptive Summary Statistics for Factors Recipro- cally Related to Extent of Manpower Planning in Police Agency Ability to Attract and Retain the Kinds of People Believed Needed. . Descriptive Summary Statistics fbr Agency Ability to Attract and Retain the Kinds of People Believed Needed Kendall's Tau Correlations Between Ten Categories of Manpower Planning Activity Kendall's Tau Correlations Between Thirteen Categories Of Manpower Planning Data Collection Page 227 230 233 236 238 240 242 244 245 247 250 253 258 Table 4.26 4.27 4.28 4.29 4.30 4.31 4.32 4.33 4.34 4.36 Page Kendall' s Tau Correlations Between Extent of Manpower Planning and Factors Affecting Extent of Manpower Planning . . . . . 263 Comparison of Means and Analysis of Variance for Ten Categories of Manpower Planning Activity by Police Agency Level . . . 265 Comparison of Means and Analysis of Variance for Thirteen Categories of Manpower Planning Data Collection by Police Agency Level . . . . . . 267 Comparison of Means and Analysis of Variance for Extent of Manpower Planning by Police Agency Level . . . . . 268 Pearson Correlations Between Seven Factors Affecting Extent of Manpower Planning . . . . . . 270 Comparison of Means and Analysis of Variance for Factors Affecting Extent of Manpower Planning by Police Agency Level . . . 272 Kendall's Tau Correlations Between Categories of Manpower Planning Activity and Factors Recipro— cally Related to Extent of Manpower Planning . . 274 Kendall's Tau Correlations Between Categories of Manpower Planning Data Collection and Factors Reciprocally Related to Extent of Manpower Planning . . . . . . . . 278 Kendall's Tau Correlations Between Extent of Manpower Planning and Factors Reciprocally Related to Extent of Manpower Planning . . . . . . . 280 Pearson Correlations Between Factors Reciprocally Related to Extent of Manpower Planning . . . . 282 Kendall's Tau Correlations Between Agency Ability to Attract and Retain Needed Kinds of People and Seven Factors Affecting Extent of Manpower Planning . . . . . . . . 285 Comparison of Means and Analysis of Variance for Ability to Attract and Retain Needed Kinds of People by Police Agency Level . . . . . 286 xii Page .NKendall' s Tau Correlations Between Agency Ability to Attract and Retain Needed Kinds of People and Seven Reciprocal Factors . . . . . . . 287 Multiple Regression Analysis of Factors Affecting Extent of Manpower Planning Data Collection and Activity in Police Agencies . . . . . . . 291 Multiple Regression Analysis of Factors Affecting Extent of Manpower Planning Data Collection. Separate Regressions for City, County, and State Police Agencies . . . . . . . . . 297 Multiple Regression Analysis of Factors Affecting Extent of Manpower Planning Activity: Separate Regressions for City, County, and State Police Agencies . . . . 300 Bivariate and Partial Correlations Between Extent of Manpower Planning Activity and Factors Recipro- cally Related to Extent of Manpower Planning . . 307 Multiple Regression Analysis of Factors Affecting Police Agency Ability to Attract and Retain the Kinds of People Needed. . . . . . . 313 xiii LIST OF FIGURES Page (IanrFramework for Manpower Planning . . . . . . . 89 IVE-Model of Factors Affecting the Extent of Manpower Planning Data Collection and Activity Undertaken 'J: in Police Organizations . . . . . . . . . 184 tModel of Factors Affecting the Extent of Manpower Planning Data Collection and Activity Undertaken in Police Organizations . . . . . . . . . 289 «I xiv ‘g‘ "L‘Eh: 1.‘~ "“ 1 . .l 1 1r.‘ul\‘1; 1. “a 4.‘ , , {are 1 . CHAPTER I THE PROBLEM Introduction V_ The aim of the research reported in this dissertation is to f:f- Iprovide information about the state of the art and feasibility of ,; annpower planning in police organizations. The phrase "state of the f- art“ is meant to refer to the present extent to which police agen- apes undertake the component activities that comprise manpower ' gpflpnning. The term “feasibility" refers to the kinds of capacities _"‘3‘constraints that influence the perception of manpower planning ‘.¢f_ia feasible, or realistically practical, undertaking for police agencies. ' . Academically, manpower planning is an interdisciplinary rjgfépct, and organizationally it is a boundary-spanning activity. 1: host general form,(manpower planning is often described as "”-‘is.done to assure that a system (economy, organization) has id'similar broad concerns. At the level of the individual 1‘4'/\_// focus of manpower planning, but internally the activity is most closely related to general planning and to personnel administration. With respect to academic disciplines, statistics is quite important for all varieties of manpower planningj)while econometrics assumes greater importance at the macro-levels, and the behavioral sciences increase in importance at the level of the organization.1 The term "manpower planning" is roughly synonymous with two other commonly used terms, "personnel planning" and "human resource planning." In some quarters personnel planning has a somewhat narrower connotation, and human resource planning a somewhat broader one, but in general all three terms pertain to planning for the people-related aspects of organizations./ The term manpower planning is used for this study because it is the most widely recognized, both in the literature and in practice. Lme level of manpower planning pertinent for this study is organizational. More specifically, the study focuses on manpower planning by police organizations. As the responsibility for police protection and law enforcement in the United States is extensively decentralized and fragmented, the principal locus of police manpower planning is at the level of the individual organizatiomggflilthough a major recent study has provided industry—level projections for police employment in the coming years,2 and althoughfigigte-level police training commissions have established certain minimum standards for police employees, there seems to be no reason to doubt that police human resource decision making will remain a local function. For several reasons, manpower planning is of particular importance for police agencies today. Inasmuch as police agencies are extremely labor-intensive, manpower planning is perhaps the single most crucial of all of the aspects of police planning. That is, planning to effectively obtain and utilize human resources is at the heart of police management. Certainly, police organizations are composed of other resources, including information, equipment, and money, but manpower planning contributes far more to their missions than do, for example, fiscal planning or fleet planning. In these times of belt-tightening and fiscal uncertainty at all levels of government, manpower planning is increasingly important for police agencies. Personnel costs account for a very large per- centage of every police department budget, so that financial crisis translates to manpower crisis. A police agency budget is largely a personnel budget. As the availability of public revenue stabilizes or decreases, competition between government agencies for funds increases, as does the need for sound and defensible budget justi- fications. One of the aims of manpower planning is to determine the numbers and kinds of people needed by the organization; this infor- mation is precisely that needed by police agencies at budget time. The relationship between manpower planning and budgeting is primarily based on numbers of people considerations. Concern for kinds of people is also important, however. The quality of police personnel has been a dominant theme of police reform and police 3 improvement efforts over the last century. At present, the rela- tionship between college education and police performance or effectiveness remains an unsettled and controversial issue.4 Another "kinds of people" consideration in policing is not so much an issue as a mandate and a problem to be solved. This is the matter of equal employment opportunity and affirmative action. Racial and ethnic minorities are generally underrepresented among the employees of police departments, as are women,5 and the amelioration of this situation is a major concern of the courts and the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission. Among the objectives of manpower planning are the determination of the kinds of people needed, and assuring that such people are found and employed. Also among the considerations of manpower planning are the needs and aspirations of the individuals employed in organizations. The problem of balancing the needs of employees and the organization is an especially urgent one for police agencies, as the bulk of their employees begin in the same job and compete with one another for a limited number of special assignments and promotional oppor- tunities. A large portion of police employees never get beyond the entry-level position of patrol officer, and thus have any advancement aspirations frustrated. Also, those best at patrol work are often among the fortunate ones promoted or transferred, so that the organi- zation may have its least able employees doing its principal work. Again, devising solutions to these difficulties is one of the aims of manpower planning. For several of the issues and problems pre- sently facing police departments, then, manpower planning would seem to represent an important response. ' i Of course, it may be true that manpower planning as under- ‘ t;ken by private corporations is not completely feasible for police organizations. In order to obtain resources to employ the "right number of people" police agencies must survive a gauntlet of budget analysts, elected executives, and elected legislators. In addition, police departments are frequently not in complete control of their personnel processes, and must negotiate with civil service commis- sions over job qualifications, selection criteria, and the like. The role of the police, or “doing the right things," is also not A ‘gi . completely defined or controlled by the police organization. Most V‘- importantly, the nature of police work itself, as compared with jobs #3'15' in the private sector, may mitigate against authoritative determina- .;; _Ttdons of "right" numbers and kinds of people, and "right" things ' 1" 3.t9 do. A Despite these limitations, manpower planning seems to offer benefits to police organizations as a means of rationalizing human '~rESource acquisition, development, and utilization. The extent to noun, however. Also not systematically understood are the limita- Purpose he purpose of this study is to assess the state of the art 5ity'of manpower planning in police organizations. The lart determination will provide information about the extent to which police agencies now utilize the component activi- ties of manpower planning. This determination will indicate whether the police are making use of currently available methods and tech- niques for improving personnel policy and decision making. The conclusion of one recent review was that police departments are slow to apply available personnel administration methods and knowledge;6 this study will test the assertion with respect to manpower planning. A second purpose of the study is to identify those features of police organizations and their environments that influence the practice of manpower planning, and to examine their relative impor— tance. This specification of the relevant features of police agencies' situations should provide considerable insight concerning the practical feasibility of manpower planning for the police. Another aspect of feasibility is more technical than prac- tical. The study will explore the kinds of data that police agencies presently collect or receive from other sources. The availability of certain types of information is a prerequisite for undertaking manpower planning activity, and together with analytical capacity comprises the technical feasibility consideration. In a limited fashion, the study also seeks to examine the value of manpower planning for police agencies. Although the primary purpose is to explore the state of the art and feasibility of man- power planning for the police, some information is provided concern- ing the relationship between the activity and police agency ability to find and keep the kinds of employees needed. Framework Manpower planning consists of a process or a set of activities that organizations might choose to undertake in order to rationalize their policy and decision making with respect to human resources. It purports to be a means of solving or preventing human resource problems, through means/ends analysis, information provi- sion, and uncertainty reduction. As a form of rational planning, however, manpower planning imposes monetary and cognitive costs on organizations choosing to undertake the activity. In its complete and pure form, manpower planning requires explicit specification of organizational goals, exhaustive analysis of the present condition of the organization, identification and evaluation of all possible alternative solutions to discrepancies between present and preferred states, and constant surveillance to provide continuous feedback about goal attainment. There is considerable evidence that organizational planning and decision making are not so completely rational.7 With respect to complex activities such as manpower planning, March and Simon argue that "in the discovery and elaboration of new programs, the decision- making process will proceed in stages, and at no time will it be concerned with the 'whole' problem in all its complexity, but always i with parts of the problem."8 Considerations of time, cost, and cognitive investment, then, i can be expected to limit organizational pursuit of rationality, and thus the extent of manpower planning activity undertaken. Moreover, nunpower planning activity found in organizations is likely to take WW 7‘ . the form of a set of somewhat related component programs, rather than as a holistic and explicitly goal-directed process. Therefore, purely in response to internal organizational considerations, the practice of an activity such as manpower planning is substantially limited. The decisions and activities of organizations are also affected by external considerations. Dill has developed the concept of task environment to refer to those factors and entities outside of the organization that are "relevant or potentially relevant to goal setting and goal attainment."9 Thus, manpower planning in organizations can be influenced, in terms of its goals and activi- ties, by external forces. As Thompson describes it, the task environments of organizations pose a variety of contingencies and constraints which interfere with the attainment of rationality.10 In a general sense, the environment of an organization consists of everything beyond its boundaries. One way to order all of the external factors has been suggested by Hall, who refers to technological, legal, political, economic, demographic, ecological, and cultural conditions.]] Another way to distinguish between important and unimportant aspects of the environment is to specify the relevant "organization set" which includes those organizations in interaction with the focal agency.12 The interactions of entities in an organization set comprise a network of interorganizational relationships that may take a variety of forms, including coopera- tion, coordination, conflict, competition, contracting, coopting, and coalescing.13 An important consideration with respect to the environment and the organization's relations with it is that the environment is not simply an objective reality "out there" to be dealt with.14 Rather, an organization's view of the environment, and its inter- pretation of relative power or dependence relationships with external forces, are the result of selection and perception processes. The decisions and strategies of organizations are strongly affected by their perceptions of constraints and opportunities posed in the environment, above and beyond any more objective measures of such factors.15 The conceptual framework for this study follows from these concepts. An organization interested in rationalizing its human resource system and ameliorating its personnel-related problems would, all other things being equal, undertake manpower planning. The activity imposes certain burdens not ordinarily consonant with organizational problem solving and decision making processes, how- ever. Also, organizations react to forces other than the internally- focused need to solve problems and attain rationality. Elements of the environments of organizations, real and/or perceived, affect decision making and strategy formulation in organizations. Thus, the extent of manpower planning undertaken by organizations will be affected both by internal and by external considerations. Decisions in police agencies about whether to undertake manpower planning activities are expected to be affected by these kinds of organizational and environmental considerations. The extent of manpower planning undertaken in police organizations is 10 expected to be causally dependent on some of the factors, and reciprocally related to others.16 The hypothesized dependent con- nections are based upon relationships in which changes in extent of manpower planning primarily follow from changes in organizational and environmental factors. The expected reciprocal connections reflect relationships in which manpower planning is thought both to follow from and affect certain internal and external forces. Almost all of the relationships are probably at least partially reciprocal, and covariation will be the principal evidence of association, so that firm findings of causation will not result from the study. On logical grounds, however, some inferences concerning dependence may be supported. Research uestions In the classical research endeavor, testable and falsi- fiable hypotheses are deduced from the theory guiding the study, and empirical data is used to confront the hypotheses. In this instance, however, two considerations impinge on the hypothesis testing research model. One is that the construct of interest, manpower planning, is difficult to specify and operationalize, due both to its ambiguity and to the near absence of previous empirical studies of its utilization by organizations. The other problem is that organization theory is not well developed as a source of hypotheses, especially with respect to the behavior and decision making of police organizations. 11 In contrast to the classical research endeavor, this study is probably best characterized as exploratory. As described by Katz and by Kerlinger, the aims of exploratory field studies are to discover the significant variables that affect the construct of interest, to discover the relationships among these variables, and to develop the foundation for eventual hypothesis testing and theory construction.17 These aims equate quite closely with the limited purposes of this study. Although not based upon formal hypotheses, the study was guided by a set of research questions derived from the preceding framework, and from the limited available information about the practice of manpower planning and decision making in police agencies. These research questions served to identify the variables and rela- tionships for which measures were developed and data were collected. The research questions, and a brief rationale for each, follow. 1. What is the present level of manpower planning activity being undertaken in police organizations? This research question reflects the state of the art concern of the study. The aim is to determine the extent to which police agencies now undertake the class of activities that comprise manpower planning. The specification of the state of the art will include current data collection efforts, performance of manpower planning component activities, and overall concern for right numbers and kinds of people and manpower utilization. 12 2. What is the relationship between police agency size and extent of manpower planning undertaken? It seems likely that the number of employees in an organiza- tion at least partially contributes to the need for manpower planning. Certainly, many of the extensive data collection efforts and sophis- ticated component activities of manpower planning are not likely to be found, and may not be needed, in very small organizations. Among the few empirical studies of manpower planning in organizations, one 18 found several differences in activity by agency size, while another found that extent and quality of manpower planning activity did not 19 vary by size of organization. Both studies were based on rather small samples of private companies. 3. What is the relationship between general economic conditions and extent of manpower planning undertaken by police organizations? Two of the main aspects of manpower planning are attracting and retaining qualified employees, and the accomplishment of these activities might well be somewhat dependent on economic conditions. On one hand, in difficult economic times retention of personnel may not be much of a problem, because other employment opportunities are scarce. Also, in difficult times police employment may seem more desirable to potential applicants, both because of limited alterna- tive opportunities and because police employment offers relative job security. On the other hand, though, these consequences of difficult economic conditions may make manpower planning less necessary, because of the easy availability of human resources. In addition, manpower 13 planning efforts cost money, and in rough times such "fringe" staff activities may be among the early casualties. This may be espec- ially true if manpower planning activities in a police organization are primarily associated with hiring, which may be severely cur- tailed during financially troubled periods. 4. What is the relationship between changes in police agency size and extent of manpower planning undertaken? Rather than directly related to agency size or economic conditions, the extent of manpower planning in police agencies may be primarily related to personnel processing activity, and espec- ially to increases or decreases in numbers of employees. Related 1 to this consideration, it may be that extent of manpower planning is associated mainly with growth (and thus hiring), or it may be that the need for manpower planning is more a function simply of personnel- related activity,whether in terms of increases or decreases in police agency size. In other words, it will be important to examine the effects of the size change variable in both real (negative and positive values) form and in absolute value form. 5. What is the relationship between equal employment 7 opportunity/affirmative action pressure and extent i of manpower planning undertaken by police organi- zations? As noted earlier, minorities and women are generally under- represented among the employees of police agencies, and many agencies are under formal and informal pressure to correct such situations. The relationship between this kind of pressure and agency manpower 14 planning efforts is not clear, however. The pressure may encourage the utilization of certain recruitment and selection methods that reduce bias and enhance minority employment opportunities, and these activities may require analysis and planning efforts for technical support. Outside pressure to employ and/or promote certain kinds of people, though, may also lead police agencies to regard their manpower planning efforts as irrelevant. That is, if agencies are told what kinds of people to employ, they may see little utility in sophisticated manpower planning activities undertaken for the same purpose. 6. What is the relationship between the degree to which police agency personnel matters are con- strained by union contracts and extent of manpower planning undertaken? Unionization of police employees seems to be increasing, and police union contracts and agreements frequently have provisions 20 As with equal employment pertaining to personnel-related matters. opportunity pressure, it seems unlikely that police agencies would expend great energy for manpower planning with respect to matters over which they had effectively lost control. One study of manpower planning found a strong negative relationship between the extent of the activity undertaken by organizations and the portion of employees represented by unions.21 As concluded in that study, collective bargaining agreements essentially redefine, and usually constrict, the domain of organizational personnel decision making. 15 7. What is the relationship between the degree to which police agency personnel matters are con- trolled by external civil service units and extent of manpower planning undertaken? Police organizations are subunits of local, state, or national governments, and their personnel processes and decisions are often not independent of jurisdiction civil service or personnel units. To the extent that the personnel processes of police agencies are controlled by civil service units or regulations, the agencies might be expected to regard manpower planning efforts as irrelevant. On the other hand, though, civil service units have the rationaliza- tion of personnel decision making as one of their formal purposes, and may provide, encourage, or require manpower planning efforts of police agencies. A recent study found that the role and effect of civil service units vis—a-vis municipal police departments were 22 not unitary, but instead varied considerably. This study will explore the relationship with manpower planning activity. 8. What is the relationship between degree of competition for qualified applicants and extent of manpower planning undertaken by police organizations? A portion of manpower planning activities are oriented toward attracting and retaining desired kinds of employees, and the need for these activities may be related to the degree of competi- tion for qualified applicants. It seems likely that the greater the competition for desired kinds of people, the more police agencies are likely to undertake at least some kinds of manpower planning efTorts. The issue of competition for qualified applicants may be I" 1" 1" ai' I“. 16 a more direct measure of the putative effects of economic conditions and equal employment opportunity pressure than measures of those factors themselves. 9. What is the relationship between police agency level (city, county, state) and extent of manpower planning undertaken? Apart from agency size, economic conditions, and other factors, extent of manpower planning in police organizations may also vary by governmental level. City, county, and state police agencies are included in this study, and variation in manpower planning activity within and between these levels will be examined. 10. What is the relationship between the perceived influence of the police agency over increases and decreases in numbers of funded positions and extent of manpower planning undertaken by police organizations? One of the major aims of manpower planning is to determine the right numbers of people needed by an organization. How many people a police agency actually employs, however, is a direct func- tion of its budget, the nature of which is negotiated with budget analysts, elected executives, and legislators.23 Police agencies that perceive themselves as having no influence over budgetary decision making would seem unlikely to engage in costly and extensive analysis and planning to determine numbers of people needed. It may also be the case, though, that very influential police agencies do not need to undertake manpower planning to develop budget justifica- tions, if they can get their way regardless. Yet another possibility is that influence depends on manpower planning, rather than vice 17 versa; that is, the products of manpower planning activity may be a means of influence for police agencies at budget time. The com- plexity and cyclical form of this relationship suggests that it may be more reciprocal than causal. 11. What is the relationship between ability to antici- pate increases and decreases in numbers of funded positions and extent of manpower planning undertaken by police organizations? A significant element of any planning activity, including manpower planning, is forecasting. One of the benefits of manpower planning is the forecasting or anticipation of increases and decreases in numbers of people needed, so that personnel processes can be geared to future, rather than past, human resource needs. As noted above, however, the vagaries of public budgeting may not always provide police agencies with the numbers of people thought needed, and budget outcomes may not always be predictable. Viewed one way, police agency decisions to undertaken manpower planning may depend on whether they are able to anticipate position increases and decreases; for example, agencies facing a totally unpredictable situation may regard manpower planning as a useless exercise. From the other perspective, agency ability to anticipate increases and decreases may depend to some extent on the caliber of their manpower planning efforts. Forecasting activity may allow police agencies to anticipate changes in numbers of positions, whether due to changed work load or political decision making. 18 12. What is the relationship between the perceived importance of rational factors in determining budget outcomes and extent of manpower planning undertaken by police organizations? Related to influence and anticipation, police agency deci- sions to engage in manpower planning may be related to their concep- tion of the importance of rational factors in budgetary decision making. Agencies that regard budget decisions (which are determina- tive of manpower levels) as entirely random or as completely politi- cal would not be expected to undertake extensive manpower analysis and planning in support of rational budget justifications. It might also be true that the importance of rational factors is related to the availability of defensible rational arguments. In other words, the importance of rational factors in determining budget outcomes is at least partially dependent on the provision of information and analysis on which rational decisions can be made, so that to some extent budgetary rationality may depend on manpower planning. Clearly, both directions of dependence are plausible. 13. What is the relationship between the perceived importance of political factors in determining budget outcomes and extent of manpower planning undertaken by police organizations? In the short-hand experiential vocabulary of police agency personnel, political factors are essentially the antithesis of rational factors. It would seem probable that the extent to which police agencies engage in manpower planning would be related to their perception of the importance of political factors in deter- Inining their budgetary experiences. Again, the relationship is 19 expected to be reciprocal. For example, police departments that regard budget decisions as based on political factors may see little use in undertaking manpower planning activity, and their failure to conduct such analyses and provide information and arguments may contribute both to the perceived and actual importance of political factors. 14. What is the relationship between the perceived importance of internal rational considerations for determining kinds of people needed and the extent of manpower planning undertaken by police organizations? The previous four research questions, pertaining to influence, anticipation, rational factors, and political factors, were focused on budgets and numbers of people kinds of determinations. This ques— tion and the following two pertain to kinds of people considerations. For this question, it seems likely that the extent to which police agencies choose to undertake manpower planning activity is related to their perception of the importance of internal rational consider- ations, such as job requirements and agency needs. Police depart— ments that are permitted to base kinds of people decisions on their own interpretations of their needs might be expected to undertake analysis and planning in order to support and rationalize such decisions. Again, though, competent performance of such manpower planning activities might contribute to the salience of internal rational considerations, so that the relationship would seem to be reciprocal . 20 15. What is the relationship between the perceived importance of external rational considerations for determining kinds of people needed and the extent of manpower planning undertaken by police organizations? In the determination of the kinds of people to be employed by police agencies, another set of considerations is more or less rational (or at least non-political) but less within the control of the organization itself than job requirements and agency needs. These considerations would include the actual supply of desired kinds of people, and other labor market conditions. The direction of association between the importance of these considerations and extent of police agency manpower planning activity is difficult to predict, but again the relationship would be expected to be one of interdependence. 16. What is the relationship between the perceived importance of external political considerations for determining kinds of people needed and extent of manpower planning undertaken by police organizations? As with the importance of political factors in budgetary decision making, police agencies perceiving kinds of people determi- nations as dependent on political factors are not likely to allocate scarce resources to manpower planning. The kinds Of external politi- cal factors that might influence kinds of people decisions in police agencies include direct political pressure, equal employment opportunity/affirmative action considerations, public opinion, and specific court cases or injunctions with personnel-related implica- tions. Of course, police agencies that choose to engage in manpower .AN 21 planning efforts may gain a measure of control over kinds of people determinations, and thus come to perceive the importance of external political factors as low. 17. What is the relationship between the extent of manpower planning undertaken and policy agency ability to attract and retain the kinds of people believed needed? Ultimately, undertaking manpower planning activity should positively affect the quality of human resources in an organization, but it is important not to confuse utilization with effect. For the most part, this study seeks to discern the extent to which police organizations engage in manpower planning, and the positive benefits to be gained are taken for granted. This study cannot provide an evaluation or a cost/benefit analysis of the "program" termed man- power planning. However, the association between policy agency manpower planning and reported ability to attract and retain needed kinds of people can be examined, with a variety of other possible contributing factors statistically controlled. No knowledge claims can confidently be made regarding the affect of manpower planning on the ability to attract and retain, but statements about whether the two conditions tend to coexist can be offered. 18. Based on the evidence uncovered concerning the extent of manpower planning and the relationships among important variables, what seem to be the implications for the feasibility of manpower planning in police organizations? The previous research questions were aimed at identifying what police agencies are currently doing in terms of manpower 22 planning, and at describing the important features of the world as experienced by police organizations considering whether to under- take manpower planning activities. Given this view of the situa- tions in which police agencies find themselves, and given some understanding of the process and components of manpower planning irrespective of the police, it should be possible to make some reasoned judgments about the technical and practical feasibility of manpower planning for police organizations. These judgments will inescapably be partly deductive and partly inductive, partly positivist and partly normative. Overview In the next chapter a review of the literature is presented. Because manpower planning is a rather ambiguous and wide-ranging concept, the literature review is somewhat lengthy and eclectic. The three major topics considered in the review are general planning, manpower planning, and police organizations. The design of this study of manpower planning in police organizations is more completely described in Chapter III. In Chapter IV, an analysis and discussion of the data are provided. The discussion is continued and elaborated in Chapter V, with particular concern for constraints on the feasibility of manpower planning for police agencies. In the final chapter, a summary, conclusions, and policy implications are presented. FOOTNOTES--CHAPTER I 1A. R. Smith, "Some Views on Manpower Planning," in Man ower Plannin , ed. D. J. Bartholemew (Middlesex, England: Penguin, 1976), p. 45. 2The National Man ower Surve of the Criminal Justice 5 stem: Volume Two (Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1978). 3Charles B. Saunders, U radin the American Police: Education and Trainin for Better Law Enforcement (Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution, 1970). 4Lawrence Sherman and the National Advisory Commission on Higher Education for Police Officers, The ualit of Police Educa- tion (San Francisco: Jossey-Bass, l978). 5 The National Manpower Survey of the Criminal Justice System: Volume Two. 6Joel Lefkowitz, "Industrial-Organizational Psychology and the Police," merican Psychologist 32 (1977): 346-364. 7David Braybrooke and Charles E. Lindblom, A Strategy of Decision (New York: Free Press, 1963); and Herbert A. Simon, Administrative Behavior, 3rd ed. (New York: Free Press, 1976). 8James G. March and Herbert A. Simon, Organizations (New York: John Wiley, 1958), p. 190. 9William R. Dill, “Environment as an Influence on Mana- gerial Autonomy," dministrative Science Quarterly 2 (March 1958): 409-443. 10James D. Thompson, Organizations in Action (New York: McGraw-Hill, 1967). PP. 29-30. 1]Richard H. Hall, Dr anizations: Structure and Process, 2nd ed. (Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall, 1977), pp. 304-312. 23 24 12William M. Evan, "The Organization-Set: Toward a Theory of Interorganizational Relations," in Approaches to Organizational Design, ed. James D. Thompson (Pittsburgh: University of Pittsburgh Press, 1966). 13Thompson, Organizations in Action, pp. 29-38; and Hall, Organizations: Structure and Process, pp. 327-332. 14Hall, Organizations: Structure and Process, p. 312. 15William H. Starbuck, "Organizations and Their Environ- ments," in Handbook of Industrial and Dr anizational Ps cholo , ed. Marvin D. Dunnette (Chicago: Rand McNally, 1976). pp. 1071- 1081. 16Morris Rosenberg, The Logic of Survey Analysis (New York: Basic Books,l968), pp. 3-21. 17Daniel Katz, "Field Studies," in Research Methods in the Behavioral Sciences, ed. Leon Festinger and Daniel Katz (New York: Holt, Rinehart, and Winston, 1953); and Fred N. Kerlinger, Founda— tions of Behavioral Research, 2nd ed. (New York: Holt, Rinehart, and Winston, 1973). pp. 405-408. 18 Herbert G. Heneman and George Seltzer, Man ower Plannin and Forecasting in the Firm: An Exploratpgy Probe (University of Minnesota, Industrial Relations Center, 1968). 19David E. Dimick and Victor V. Murray, “Correlates of Substantive Policy Decisions in Organizations: The Case of Human Resource Management," Academy of Management Journal 21, 4 (December 1978): 611-623. 20Steven A. Rynecki, Douglas A. Cairns, and Donald J. Cairns, Police Collective Bar ainin A reements: A National Mana ement Survey Washington, D.C.: Police Executive Research Forum, 978). 2(Dimick and Murray, "Correlates of Substantive Policy Decisions in Organizations." 22George W. Greisinger, Jeffrey S. Slovak, and Joseph L. Molkup, Civil Service S stems: Their Im act on Police Administra- tion (Washington, D.C.: Public Administration Service, 1979 . 23Aaron Wildavsky, The Politics of the Bud etar Process (Boston: Little, Brown, 1964). CHAPTER II REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE Planning is a sublime power and an awesome responsibility. Introduction In this study an effort is made to assess the state of the art and feasibility of manpower planning in police organizations. In order for the state of the art to be established, the behaviors constituting manpower planning must be identified; one purpose of this chapter is to define and describe the activities of interest t for the study. In addition to information about current practice, the assessment of feasibility also depends on information about the ( world within which manpower planning is or might be conducted by police agencies. Thus, the second aim of this chapter is to provide information about those aspects of police organizations and their environments that might affect the practice of manpower planning. The central element of manpower planning is planning. For this reason, the first section of the chapter contains a review of the general planning literature. The more specialized activity of manpower planning is discussed in the second major section. In the third part of the chapter, the more narrow topic of manpower 25 26 planning in police organizations is addressed. What is presently known about the state of the art is reported, along with informa- tion about police organizations and the world in which they operate. Planning Planning is a loosely defined, poorly understood, multi- purpose social activity. The literature about it is considerable; just how considerable depends on the conception of planning chosen and the degree of atomism pursued. Broad conceptions of planning can include much of politics and administration, the entire program- ming cycle including implementation and evaluation, and such tech- nical fields as architecture and engineering. In addition, a detailed analysis of planning behavior could incorporate most of psychology, including such matters as perception, design, decision making, problem solving, goal and value systems, and learning. From the literature, one can easily get the impression that planning is everything.2 But planning, to be a meaningful term, must be finitely defined if it is to have utility in any operational sense. An attempt is made in this section to impose some coherence on the literature and thereby to identify what it means to plan. Definitions of Planning One approach to identifying what it means to plan is to examine the definitions of planning that have been suggested. The literature is replete with such definitions; it would be very close to an accurate statement to say that there are as many definitions of planning as there are publications on the subject. 27 Some views of planning equate it quite closely with control, and are probably the cause of much of the distrust of the activity, particularly in this country. This is especially applicable to the idea of control over people's lives in the present, as with the popular connotations given to "social planning" or "planned economy.“ Planning thus viewed as a form of social control was opposed many years ago by Von Hayek and Popper.3 Although more modern concep- tions of planning are still concerned with control, of the future in particular, they are usually carefully distinguished from any schemes to limit individual freedom. Dahl noted in 1959 the dis- satisfaction with the control perspective of planning. "Planning" has usually been an ambiguous term at best, but for a long time the word seems to have been associated with the mechanisms of hierarchy. When one spoke of a “planned economy," one usually meant a centrally directed economy with a high degree of hierarchical control. But 4 this perverse and narrow meaning has not proved useful. . . In reaction to this narrow view of planning as hierarchical control, a view of planning as rational social action developed. By this conception, planning is seen not as a threat to liberty but as a means of enhancing individual and social fulfillment. Early proponents of this perspective included Mannheim and Wootten.5 Dahl summarized planning according to this approach as “a social process for reaching a rational decision . . . any deliberate effort to increase the proportion of goals attained by increasing awareness and understanding of the factors involved. . . ."6 This broad view of planning as rational social action serves today as a superordinate or umbrella concept within which 28 most current Western definitions of the activity can be filed. Some modern definitions are no narrower, such as that of Friedmann and Hudson, who identify planning as "an activity centrally con- cerned with the linkage between knowledge and organized action."7 Most other definitions, however, scale down planning to something more specific, or at least less grandiose. Many, for example, attribute to planning an explicit future orientation, as a means of separating it from other froms of social action. A sampling of such definitions of planning is presented below. an activity by which man in society endeavors to gain mastery over himself and to shape his collective future consciously by power of his reason. a process for determining appropriate future action through a sequence of choices. the process of preparing a set of decisions for action in the future, directed at achieving goals by optimal means.10 a continuous process of carefully devising future courses of action within the framework of overall appreciation of the social system, and with a view on their net-contribution to human fulfillment. the collection, organization and analysis of information in support of . . . decisions which commit the institution far into the future.12 the attempt to control the consequences of our actions . . . the ability to control the future by current acts.(3 Related to the future orientation of many planning defini- tions is a recognition of change, either as a condition to which organizations and society must adapt, or as a desirable condition to be encouraged and directed. For example, Ewing defined planning as essentially "the job of making things happen that would not 29 14 otherwise occur," and Friedmann has described planning as "the guidance of chance within a social system."15 In addition to explicit mention of the future and change, definitions of planning often refer to decisions. Two of the defi- nitions quoted above described planning as an activity undertaken in "support" of or in "preparation" for decision making. Similarly, Dyckman sees planning as a means of "facilitating and rationalizing" l8 decisions. Finally, Gamm suggests that "planning might be usefully conceived of as a pre-decision control process in comparison to auditing or court adjudication as a post-decision control process."19 Concerns for the future, change, and decisions seem to be basic to planning. To plan is to think, analyze, synthesize, and forecast before decisions are made, policies are formulated, and programs are designed and implemented. The aim of planning, as of other types of social action, is to get us from where we are to where we want to go. But the behavior of planning is distinctive in that it precedes other, more direct, action and in that it formally and explicitly considers the implications of the future for what we do now. Planning seeks to develop information and choices such that the future effect of decision and policy making is as close as possible to that intended. These definitions of planning have been deceptively con- sistent. In the following sections on varieties of planning, closely related processes, justifications, and planning theories the ambiguous nature of the subject will become more evident. 30 Varieties of Planning A whole host of adjectives attached to the word planning can be found in the literature. These varieties of planning vary from one another in scope, subject, source of values, locus of authority, and other characteristics. Presumably, however, some core behavior called planning is common to each. One major dichotomy is that between normative planning and 20 The aim of either variety functional,or instrumental, planning. of planning is the identification of means that will lead to desired ends. Functional or instrumental planning takes the ends (goals, values) as given, and submits only means to rational analysis. The ends may be supplied by higher administrators, politicians, or "the people." The normative planner, however, gives attention to both means and ends. Ends developed outside of the planning system are not merely accepted as satisfactory, but are evaluated or analyzed in much the same way as means. For several reasons, the distinction between-instrumental and normative planning is not as bold as suggested above. First, no planning is actually value-free, as instrumental or functional plan- ning purports to be. The acceptance of ends from another source or authority is a value-laden act in itself, and choices between means also involve the distribution of values. Second, functional planners really only intend to claim to be less normative, rather than divorced from ends considerations altogether. That is, they would certainly balk at developing means for the accomplishment of some heinous or unthinkable ends, and so reserve the right to subject 31 the ends of planning to their scrutiny. In this respect they differ from openly normative planners only in degree, or in where they would draw the line. Third, normative planning is very susceptible to the charge of pursuing its own preferences, rather than some notion of social good or public interest, but to some extent the focus on ends may take the form of rational analysis. Inasmuch as the ends of most policies and programs are themselves means in a larger means-ends chain, rational analysis and defense of goals may be possible. For example, rational analysis of the consequences (ends) of a crime control program may show that they do not contri- bute to, and may even inhibit, the larger end of justice. Normative planning might expose this situation, whereas instrumental planning probably would not, accepting instead the ends of the crime control program as given. Another important dichotomy is that of blueprint and process 2] The importance of "the plan" is the primary feature that planning. separates the two approaches; its importance is great for the former and minimal for the latter. The end product of blueprint planning is a plan that is supposed to work and lead to the achievement of the desired ends. This approach is closely allied with the engineer- ing and architectural perspectives on planning, and tends to be frustrated by the failure of people to behave as they should. By contrast, the end product of process planning is planning, rather than "a plan." Planning is seen as a continuous and learning endeavor using feedback to adapt means to changing and perhaps 32 unattainable ends. This process approach to planning is allied more with management and the social sciences. Two major sources of planning adjectives are the variety of organizations and institutions that plan, and the objects of their planning. The domain of types of planning thus produced includes national, regional, state, metropolitan, city, urban, economic, social, transportation, environmental, health, and corporate planning, to cite but a few. Any social action can be planned for, and any organization or governmental entity can plan. Two particularly use- ful basic distinctions would seem to be those between government and 22 and between planning for an organization and corporate planning, planning for a political jurisdiction, such as a city, region, state, or nation. The kinds of means and ends considered and chosen would seem to differ between public and private organizations, and the scope and complexity of planning are different for an organization than for an entire political jurisdiction. Related to who plans and for what is the kind of influence used to turn planning into action. Friedmann has distinguished between three versions of planning (command, inducement, and indica- 23 Command tive) in terms of their approach to influencing action. planning utilizes sanctions to compel adherence to specified activi- ties or objectives, whereas inducement planning makes use of rewards to encourage adherence to the plan. Indicative planning is more process than plan oriented, and emphasizes the participation of interested parties in plan formulation as a means of enlisting SUpport and compliance. Persuasion and negotiation join 33 participation to replace sanctions and rewards as the modes of influence. Another major distinction between varieties of planning is that based on the generality and hierarchy of goals served. The kinds of planning produced by these considerations include strategic, tactical, policy, management, operational, and program planning. These versions of planning are most applicable to the organizational setting, and in large measure mirror distinctions often made between overall goals and subunit objectives, between management and opera- tions, and between policies, procedures, and programs. A final basic dichotomy is that of long-range and short-range planning. The possible time-frames for planning actually constitute a continuum, of course, rather than just two possibilities. There is not complete agreement in the literature about how long is long- range, although the figure of five years is commonly cited. More realistically, the designation of long-range should be dependent on the complexity and predictability of the particular variety of planning under consideration. Planning for time periods for which forecasts are not expected to be reliable might usefully be regarded as long-range, regardless of the distance into the future. Although not part of formal typologies, several other varie- ties of planning have been developed or recommended and should be mentioned. Two approaches that differ from the basic analytical and rational (means/ends) orientation are existential and configur- ational planning. Existential planning relies heavily on experience, rather than theory, for its understanding of reality and how to 34 improve it.24 The configurational approach to planning replaces or supplements the analysis/synthesis method with a concern for quali- ties, texture, and patterns.25 According to this view, the tradi- tional approach of dissecting a problem and then summing component solutions fails to satisfy the needs of the whole problem and its context. Finally, recognition of the paradox that one needs to plan 26 to plan has resulted in a variety termed meta-planning. Meta- planning is simply planning for the planning process. Processes Related to Planning As if this bewildering array of varieties of planning were not enough, planning is often regarded as nearly synonymous with a number of other processes. These processes will be mentioned in this section and distinguished from planning. During the discussion of planning definitions it was noted that a major concern of planning is decision making, and conceptually these two processes are very closely related. Both Dyckman and Dror describe planning as a kind of decision making that serves specific purposes. Dyckman argues that “dealing with the future and the extensive repercussions of limited goals" is the special charge of planning decision making.27 According to Dror, the specific char- acteristic of planning is "its dealing with a set of decisions, i.e. a matrix of interdependent and sequential series of systematically related decisions."28 Dahl noted that decisions, or choices, are accompanied by uncertainty, and described planning as the effort to 35 29 Simon has also increase understanding, or reduce uncertainty. suggested that, in addition to reducing uncertainty, planning is aimed at providing "images," or ideas and increased choices, for the 30 Taken together, these views consideration of decision makers. provide several distinctions between planning and decision making: planning ordinarily precedes decision making (although it is cer- tainly true that one must decide to plan, just as one must plan to plan); planning specifically considers the future; planning attempts to be comprehensive and systematic by dealing with a set or series of decisions, rather than with just one act of choosing; and planning supports decision making through the provision of information and ideas. One capsulized way of distinguishing between the two processes may be to think of planning as an effort to widen the range of infor- mation and choices available to and considered by the decision maker, while decision making itself is aimed at narrowing the range through the making of choices among alternatives. Another process closely related to both planning and decision making is policy analysis. There seem to be three primary differ- ences between policy analysis and planning: policy analysis is more concerned with a single policy or decision than with comprehensive- ness;31 although policy analysis is concerned with decreasing uncer- tainty through the provision of valid information, it is not greatly concerned with the development of new ideas and choices; and policy analysis is not as emphatically concerned with future considerations as is planning. Like planning, policy analysis is essentially aimed 36 at supporting and improving decisions, but the scope and promise of its efforts are more limited. Problem solving is a behavior also similar to planning and decision making. Simon has described problem solving as "basically a form of means-ends analysis that aims at discovering a process '32 Viewed description of the path that leads to a desired goal.‘ so broadly, problem solving might best be regarded as the organizing concept for a family of more specific behaviors such as planning, decision making, and policy analysis. Two processes that are intertwined with planning in the organizational setting are programming and budgeting. Programming is usually described as the action-extension of planning, as it involves the implementation of the ideas, designs, and decisions generated through the planning process. Budgeting is the activity concerned with the allocation and timely consumption of resources throughout the organization. As with programming, budgeting is intended to assist in the realization of plans. The three adminis- trative processes have been formally married in the celebrated and controversial planning-programming-budgeting system (PPBS).33 A multitude of practical and technical problems have confronted PPBS in practice, but conceptually the three processes certainly remain highly interdependent. An important distinction not simply drawn is that between planning and politics. As noted earlier, the means and ends that are the substance of planning are involved with the distribution of values in society, and so planning is inescapably a political 37 endeavor. This does not necessarily imply that planners and poli- ticians do exactly the same things, or that they are similarly moti- vated, however. One important difference is that planning, and especially functional or instrumental planning, attempts to be less normative than politics. Planning explicitly utilizes reason and analysis in developing information and choices, whereas politics is more concerned with individual and collective preferences as bases for decisions. In addition, "the activity of planning has its centre of gravity in the future whereas politics must be concerned with the present."34 Political decisions are also fundamentally disjointed, whereas planning aims to be systematic and comprehensive. In several respects, then, planning behavior and political behavior are distin- guishable. Again, though, the differences in objectivity, future orientation, and comprehensiveness are matters of degree, and not absolutes. Throughout the discussion of definitions and varieties of planning, and of processes related to planning, several core ideas have regularly surfaced as central to the activity. Each variety of planning is somehow aimed at developing images and information for the improvement of decision making, and the concern of planning with comprehensiveness and the future distinguishes it from other, similar functions. One important question as yet not directly con- sidered is, why plan? :r: a '3 fl- a. 38 Justifications of Planning The justification of planning rests upon several assumptions, the most basic of which have been identified by Seeley. He notes that the orientation of planning toward the future “presupposes that it is in some sense 'open,' that is, that actions, in some sense free, in 'this now' affect 'that then.”35 Planning assumes that man has some freedom to choose what he does, and that the future is not completely predetermined. These assumptions may seem fairly trivial to us, but in some cultures they are not and effectively prohibit any practice of planning.36 Assuming that man can influence the future, planning also presupposes that it can be influenced in intended ways, and that men can agree about what they desire the future to be like. In other words, planning assumes some agreement on ends and some effectiveness of means. Seeley has argued, however, that agreement on ends is not a prerequisite for the practice and justification of planning. . It must also be believed--if planning is to be justi- fied--that acts now are able to affect acts, conditions, or situations then, in the respects men care about, that is, that we are capable by action now of affecting the net amount of good in the world then. . . . I wish to leave open here an alternative: that, although we do not know what is good (even with sufficient clarity for this pur- pose), we do know what is evil, and might aim at a sensible net diminution of evils then by our acts of planning now. Once these basic assumptions are accepted, the justification of planning rests primarily on the value of the information produced by the activity. Planning information bears on where we are, where we want to go, and how we can get there. Skjei has described infor- mation as "the lever by which the likelihood of a gap between goals 6) TE 39 and achievements is reduced."38 Information is thus seen as reduc- ing uncertainty and leading to improved decisions. An important consideration with the information justifi- cation of planning is that costs are involved. From an economic standpoint, this justification can be adequate only if the improve- ment in decision making exceeds in worth the costs (including opportunity costs) of the planning endeavor. As Moore has recently noted, information should be processed until the marginal benefits of the information are just equal to the marginal costs of collecting and managing the information . . . however, the decision about the proper level of information collection is a difficult one because, without a knowledge of what the information will reveal, its value is uncertain.39 In principle at least, the activity of planning can be evaluated much as any other decision, policy, or program. Such an evaluation would require explicit statements of what planning was intended to accomplish and how it was expected to do it, or, in other words, a goal state and process description for planning. The development of such statement would be tedious and perhaps threatening, but probably not impossible. In any given situation an evaluation of planning would be difficult, but seemingly the only practicable way to reach useful conclusions about the justi- fication of the endeavor. Planning Theony The preceding sections have primarily dealt with two ques- tions: what is planning, and why do planning? These two issues are 40 also the major concerns of planning theory, and in this section the questions will be more completely addressed. As with many academic disciplines, there is considerable dispute within the literature of planning about what amounts to a bona fide theory. For example, soon after Davidoff and Reiner pro- posed their choice theory of planning in 1962, Dakin criticized it 40 for lacking universality. Earlier, Handler had voiced dissatis- faction concerning his inability to get a straight answer to the 4] These kinds of issues have not question, what is planning theory? been resolved, although much has been written about the role, prac- tice, components, functions, and context of planning. The choice theory of planning is among the best developed 42 It is based on the proposition that and most comprehensive. planning is a process or set of procedures that can be divorced from any particular substantive issue under consideration. Three levels of choices are seen as constituting planning: the selection of ends or goals; the identification and selection of means for goal accom- plishment; and effectuation, or the guidance of action. Beyond these basic choices, the theory also includes a set of postulates concern- ing the environment, purposes, and characteristics of planning. Though somewhat lengthy in total, these are presented below. Planning Environment 1. Individuals have preferences and behave in accordance with them. Actors are to some extent able to order their preferences. 2. Actors vary in their preferences. 3. Goods are produced and services, including labor, are performed subject to the constraint that diminishing returns set in at a given level. 41 4. Resources are scarce and consequently output is limited. 5. The entity for which planning is undertaken will typically consist of interrelated parts gener- ally in flux. 6. Man operates with imperfect knowledge. He also is often illogical (by formal canons), as where his preferences are not transitive, or where his several values, at least at the levels at which he perceives them, are in conflict with each other. Planning Purposes l. Efficiency and rational action: in a world of scarcity there is a need to conserve resources and also to allocate them in an efficient manner. 2. Market aid or replacement: planning would be of little, if any, use for an environment where an open, fully competitive market (either political or economic) operated perfectly. 3. Change or widening of choice: given scarci- ties, social and individual choices must be made about the manner in which resources are to be allocated: how, when, to whom, to what purpose, and in what combination. Planning,Characteristics l. The achievement of ends: planning incorporates a concept of a purposive process keyed to preferred, ordered ends. 2. Exercise of choice: as the characteristic intellectual act of planning. 3. Orientation to the future: time is a valued and depletable resource consumed in effecting any end. 4. Action: planning is employed to bring about results. 5. Comprehensiveness: in order to allow decision makers to choose rationally among alternative programs, the planner must detail fully the ramifications of proposals.43 These postulates comprise what might be termed a modified or semi-rational approach to planning. The means-ends and compre- hensive views of planning are modified by conditions of imperfect knowledge, goal conflict, and costs. Rational planning is also limited by problems associated with community welfare functions 42 44 These and other limitations of planning-as- and coordination. practiced will be discussed more completely in following sections. In their review of planning theory, Friedmann and Hudson 45 One they labelled philosophical identified four major traditions. syntheses, which included the development of planning thought as briefly discussed in the definitions section of this chapter. A second tradition was rationalism, which was heavily based on eco- nomic and decision theory. The third tradition of planning theory was organization development, which dealt with planning "not as an intellectual process of efficiently adapting means to given ends, but as primarily a method for inducing organizational change."46 The final tradition identified was that of empiricism, or the study of how planning is practiced in the real world. Another recent article attempted to lend more structure to 47 In it, Bolan suggested that planning the planning theory domain. be viewed from two basic perspectives, as a thinking process and as a social process. The thinking, or cognitive, perspective is composed of ways of understanding the past and present, ways of imagining the future, and ways of achieving the future. The social perspective is composed of a substantive framework of things and relations, a cultural framework of ideas and norms, an institu- tional framework of control and order, and a psychological framework of behavior and stimuli. Using these two perspectives as perpen- dicular axes, Bolan creates a twelve-cell matrix that "maps the planning theory terrain." These cells constitute the concerns of planning theory. According to Bolan, 43 From a cognitive perspective, we have developed the strongest understanding of the past and present, although much of that understanding still must be viewed as surface knowledge rather than knowledge in depth. While we have been inventive in ways to imagine the future, our efforts to give it a technical or rigorous cast have boomeranged to some extent. Our understanding of ways to achieve the future is the least developed and is marked largely by normative views about what we think ought to take place when we implement plans. From a social perspective, we seem to have learned to most understand the objective world of things and the institutional framework of control and order. In the areas of understanding behavior and value systems we are most deficient. We can create buildings, corporations, and bureaucracies, but we have little understanding of how these creations take their toll on culture and values or on the private world of man's mind.48 As sketched by Bolan, the planning theory terrain is clearly quite expansive. This grandiose view is affirmed by his statement that "planning theory, as it now seems to be moving, is the very core of learning to plan; and learning to plan is the major challenge of our civilization."49 Similarly, Friedmann and Hudson predict that "planning may become more nearly synonymous with the processes that mediate between individual and social evolution."50 These concep- tions of planning designate it as a primary linkage between knowl- edge and action in society. These kinds of extremely broad views of planning have been harshly criticized by Wildavsky. His claim is that "planning is not really defended for what it does but for what it symbolizes. Plan- ning, identified with reason, is conceived to be the way in which "5] He describes planners intelligence is applied to social problems. as men of secular faith, and regards planning as a subject more for the theologian than the social scientist. According to Wildavsky, 44 planning is often used as a substitute for action, it is costly, it neglects the present, it increases expectations, and it produces precious little. The title of his article, "If Planning is Every- thing, Maybe It's Nothing," sums up his argument nicely. Although some of the expansive approaches to planning theory seem to leave no rock unturned, it does not follow that planning is everything or nothing, any more than it would be fair to character- ize management, sociology, or systems theory as everything simply because a wide range of matters are of interest to them. Because planning is concerned with where we are, where we want to get to, and how to get there, its interests are diverse. As discussed pre- viously, however, its special emphases on rationality, comprehensive- ness, and the future distinguish it from other, albeit similar, endeavors. To further specify what planning is, the next section addresses the components and processes of planning. The Planninngrocess The simplest version of the planning process is that which has been mentioned several times previously: figure out where you want to go (ends, goals); figure out where you are (present state description); and figure out how to get from here to there (means, process description). A slightly enlarged description is that of the standard rational planning model, one version of which is enumerated below. 45 Establishing Objectives Premising Determining Alternative Courses Evaluating Alternative Courses Selecting a Course52 01-9de 0 o o o 0 Neither of these descriptions of the planning process is very informative about what it is that people do when they plan. The modern-classical model of planning outlined below is somewhat more detailed. Continuously searching out goals Identifying problems Forecasting uncontrollable contextual changes Inventing alternative strategies, tactics, actions Simulating alternative and plausible actions and consequences Evaluating alternatively forecasted outcomes Statistically monitoring germane conditions Feeding back information to simulation and decision channels53 mum U" AWN—l o o o o o o o a Each of the aspects of this modern-classical model of planning deserves brief discussion. The first step, continuously searching out goals, evidences recognition that ends are not patently obvious and that they change. Thus, unlike the first stage in the traditional rational planning process, this activity involves search and continuous adjustment. The second step of identifying problems serves to measure the present against the desired, and only when gaps are found (problems) is the entire planning process activated. The forecasting stage represents part of the future orientation of the planning process. With this activity, an effort is made to predict what that part of the world outside the control of the decision maker will look like at some point in the future. 46 The forecast thus aims to identify the fixed characteristics of the future context within which the organization, policy, or program will be expected to fit. The stage of developing alternatives is essentially a search and design stage. The preceding steps of the planning process have provided information about present, future, and goal states, and the task here is to find or design means of achieving ends. Following the invention of alternatives, the simulation stage attempts to predict the consequences of them, prior to their actual implementa- tion. This simulation is another element of the future orientation of planning, and also involves forecasting. Once the likely outcomes of the proposed alternatives have been established, they can be evaluated against criteria derived from the previously specified goals. Following the evaluation of alternatives, a choice can be made. The modern-classical planning model includes two additional steps beyond the making of a choice between alternatives. The stage of monitoring germane conditions is aimed both at keeping the present state description accurate and at providing information about the actual consequences of policies and programs that are the implemen- tation of chosen alternatives. The step of feeding back information serves to keep planners and decision makers up-to-date in their perceptions of the world and how it is affected by various actions. 47 Limitations on the PlanningiProcess The modern-classical planning model may seem logical and systematic, but for a number of reasons real-world planning behavior does not seem to heed its dictates. The task of continuously search- ing out goals, for example, is extremely problematic. Arrow clas- sically demonstrated years ago the impossibility of deriving a community welfare function from the aggregation of individual preferences.54 For public organizations, Banfield has argued that goal-states are both unclear and complex, and that focusing attention 55 on them is more likely to produce conflict than consensus. Simi- larly, Friedmann suggests that lack of goal consensus seriously 56 limits planning. Because of the difficulty that organizations have in clarifying and agreeing on goals, planning and decision making may well be more oriented toward avoiding specified evils57 or satisfying a set of constraints.58 Because of the difficulties encountered in specifying goals, the stage of problem identification is fundamentally altered. With clear goals, problem identification merely involved comparing end- states with present-states, and noting discrepancies. Without clear goals, however, the yardstick or model is absent, and problem recog- nition becomes complex and increasingly subjective. In addition to difficulties arising from goal dissensus or confusion, problem identification is also hampered by incomplete knowledge and uncer- tainty about present conditions. As Rittel and Webber describe it, "one of the most intractable problems is that of defining problems (of knowing what distinguishes an observed condition from a desired 48 condition) and of locating problems (finding where in the complex causal networks the trouble really lies)."59 More difficulties are encountered with attempts to forecast uncontrollable changes in the environment of the organization or institution. Noted earlier was Bolan's assessment that rigorous prediction of future states had not yet proved very successful.60 Banfield has also found that planners are unable to successfully predict very far into the future, and has added that it is often imprudent to decide very far in advance of necessity, particularly for public organizations.61 It is at the stage of inventing alternative strategies that the full force of the limitations on planning usually is focused. The central consideration is that in real-life planning the search for alternatives is less than completely exhaustive. This is par- tially the case because of the absence of clear goals guiding the search, and partially due to human cognitive limitations. Simon originally suggested that although complete rationality requires examination of all possible alternatives, "in actual behavior, only a very few of all these possible alternatives ever come to mind."62 In addition, the invention of alternatives is costly and time- consuming, and the necessities of decision making guarantee that 53 The only a partial subsetiyfall alternatives will be developed. search process that identifies alternatives is guided by three principles, according to March and Simon. 49 1. ‘Those variables that are largely within the control of the problem-solving individual or organiza- tional unit will be considered first. There will be a serious attempt to elaborate a program of activity based on the control of these variables. 2. If a satisfactory program is not discovered by these means, attention will be directed to changing other variables that are not under the direct control of the problem solvers. 3. If a satisfactory program is still not evolved, attention will be turned to the criteria that the pro- gram must satisfy, and an effort will be made to relax these criteria so that a satisfactory program can be found.6 Major limitations also confront the task of simulating the consequences of alternatives. First, based on the preceding dis- cussions, only a limited portion of the entire range of possible alternatives will have been identified, and thus be available for simulation. Simulation of the operation of these alternatives, in order to predict their consequences, is severely constrained by the problem of incomplete knowledge. The process of simulation is com- pletely dependent on information about the present-state of the world, future-states, and, most importantly, causation. That is, the predictions of simulation are based on models or theories about the world and how it changes. But our understanding of the world, and particularly of how it changes, is far from complete, thus introducing unpredictable error into the simulation of planning alternatives. Next in the modern-classical planning model is the stage of evaluating alternatively fOrecasted outcomes. One immediately dif- ficult question is, evaluate against what? Because of the absence of clear goals, the determination of which outcomes are best is not 50 a trivial matter. This is particularly the case with respect to public actions, as Rittel and Webber point out. Our point . . . is that diverse values are held by different groups of individuals - that what satisfies one may be abhorrent to another, that what comprises problem- solution for one is problem-generation for another. Under such circumstances, and in the absence of an overriding social theory or an overriding social ethic, there is no gainsaying which group is right and which should have its ends served. As a practical matter, because of the absence of clear goals, the limits on human cognitive ability, the difficulty of evaluating values, and time and cost considerations, alternative outcomes are evaluated against one another and against a satisfaction criterion, rather than in terms of the maximization of specific values.66 Whether the best description of the planning and decision making process as described in this section is satisficing,67 69 70 muddling through,68 disjointed incrementalism, or mixed-scanning, it is clear that some substantial limitations constrain the process in the real world. It is important to reconsider at this stage whether planning can realistically be undertaken in spite of these limitations, assuming they are real. The Planning Process Reconsidered It would seem to be possible to overcome the conflict between the classical planning model and the limitations noted in the previous section. The limitations certainly constrain the prac- tice of planning, but they do not render it impossible or fruitless. The planning process enumerated below is a modification of that presented earlier, with the most serious constraints incorporated. 51 Identification of goals, values, preferences Monitoring of present state of the world Identification of problems, misfits, discrepancies Assessment of problem magnitude, urgency, saliency Differentiation between parameters and variables Forecasting of future conditions Review of programmed responses in repertoire Simulation, forecasting, analysis, or guess Evaluation Search for other developed alternatives Simulation, forecasting, analysis, or guess Evaluation Design of new alternatives Simulation, forecasting, analysis, or guess Evaluation Choice Implementation Evaluation All planning is aimed at the achievement of some desired ends, and the identification of these ends is properly part of the planning process. The precise specification of goals is limited, however, by lack of goal consensus, goal conflict, the difficulty of aggregating individual preferences, and the complexity of goal- states. In addition, efforts to focus attention on goals may engender more conflict than consensus. Finally, the rational planning recommendation of “continuously searching out goals" involves cognitive burdens and expense that limits its utilization. For these reasons, the actual practice of planning involves some- thing less than continuous and explicit consideration of ends. Still, goals and values play an important role in the planning process. They serve to identify both the desired end- states and the class of legitimate means for pursuing them. These goals may be provided in legislation, by political leaders, by administrative officials, by the community, by planners themselves, 52 or through tradition and culture. Very frequently, the consider- ation of goals and values may be only implicit, and founded on numerous assumptions. Though implicit, these goals and values nevertheless guide the definition of problems and the selection of means for solving them. Also frequently conducted only implicitly and occasionally is the planning step of monitoring the present-state. To do such monitoring continuously and exhaustively would again incur great cognitive and cost difficulties. Planning activity, however, is based on a view of the world and of causation, whether explicit or implicit. As Churchman has put it, "the selection of a plan implies a view of what the world is like."71 The practice of planning, in many instances, seems actually to begin with the identification of problems needing solution. The apparent crisis orientation of many organizations and governments, for example, is often presented as evidence that the practice of planning does not actually begin with consideration of goal- and present-states. The very recognition of a problem, however, implies some notion of a discrepancy between what is and what ought to be. Implicitly, at least, planning activity is always founded on desired ends and a view of the world. These first three steps of the planning process, identifi- cation of goals, state of the world, and problems, are obviously highly interdependent, and might best be thought of as comprising a preliminary planning stage of consciousness, recognition, or intelligence. Explicitly, the ordering of the steps might take any 53 form, although some notion of goals and present-states must precede problem recognition. Taken together, these steps determine the kinds of matters that receive planning attention, and they also specify the desired ends to be sought and constraints on the kinds of means that may be employed. Following the initial stage of consciousness, recognition, or intelligence, planning proceeds with an assessment of the serious- ness of the problem or discrepancy. Organizations and individuals develop repertoires of programmed responses to recurrent situations, and the enactment of such a programmed response does not in each case require extensive analysis or forecasting. If a problem that has been recognized is very inconsequential or very familiar, a programmed response without significant planning activity may be issued. Also, some problems may be of an emergency nature, requir- ing instantaneous response, thus making planning impractical. Because formal planning incurs time and cost, it is not invoked in response to all discrepancies between what is and what is desired. As Wiseman notes, some of the issues that arise are such that they can quite adequately be dealt with by an administrative rather than an analytical approach and some will be so urgent that no option exists anyway about the degree of investigation they receive. Another preliminary stage in the planning process is that of distinguishing between variables and parameters. Although clearly an element of the world-view of the planner, the activity is cited separately because of its importance in influencing response to recognized problems. Whether extensive planning is initiated in 54 response to a problem, and the kinds of alternatives considered and chosen, depends largely on "what is taken as given and what is treated as subject to manipulation."73 Many matters that might receive planning attention will have been screened out during these preliminary stages of the plan- ning process. Because of cognitive and cost limitations, monitoring of end-states and present-states will not have been continuous or exhaustive, and thus some discrepancies will have eluded recognition. (In addition, no planner or other person can claim to have an unfettered or "objective" view of the world. The identification of problems or discrepancies is then inherently limited by the sub- jective nature of the present-state of the world, or "reality."74) Of those problems recognized, some will have been ignored as unimportant, some will have been addressed immediately because of their urgency, and many will have elicited routine or programmed responses not requiring detailed analysis or planning. Finally, among those problems still remaining, some will be viewed as intractable, because of the absence of variables that can be manipulated practically. Another important filter that reduces the domain of planning is the satisfaction criterion. If the operational guide for deci- sion making and planning was the optimization or maximization of goals and values, substantial discrepancies between what is and what ought to be would be much more numerous, and the application of planning much more universal. However, organizations and indi- viduals seem to be concerned more with the achievement of 55 satisfactory levels of goals and values than with maximizing those ends. Consequently, the criterion can realistically be achieved, 75 With the optimization and inaction can be a legitimate response. criterion, the pursuit of the end would be continuous, the dis- crepancy ineradicable, and inaction never really justifiable. For those problems that survive the screening and filtering effects of the preliminary planning stages, a view of the future context within which alternative solutions might be applied is needed. Again, this step in the planning process is frequently carried out only implicitly, but it operates nonetheless. The most common implicit assumption is that the future context will be just like the present; this is the guiding assumption behind present- oriented problem solving, which is all that some planning amounts to. Because planning takes time, though, it is always the future in which solutions are applied, and not the present. It is for this reason that the modern-classical model of planning explicitly incor- porates a forecasting stage, and the future orientation of planning is a major characteristic distinguishing it from policy analysis, problem solving, and decision making. How closely the forecasted future context resembles what actually comes about is an important determinant of the fit achieved by the chosen form. Subsequent planning steps are dependent on the view of the future context for simulating and evaluating alternatives and for making choices. Once some view of the future has been developed, even if only implicitly, the search for alternative forms or problem- solutions can be conducted. In general, the search is begun in 56 familiar territory, with consideration given to variables already under control and strategies already tried. Also, the satisfaction criterion is used to judge alternatives, rather than optimization. Simon argues that we cannot, within practicable computational limits, generate all the admissable alternatives and compare their respective merits. Nor can be recognize the best alternative, even if we are fortunate enough to generate it early, until we have seen all of them. We satisfice by looking for alternatives in such a way that we can generally find an acceptable one after only moderate search.76 The reconsidered planning process includes three separate stages of search. Each successive stage carries the planner farther from established routine; the stages are initiated sequentially, and successive stages are undertaken only if a satisfactory alternative has not been produced by the preceding stage. First, programmed responses already in the repertoire of the organization or indi- vidual are considered. If none of these are deemed likely to pro- duce a satisfactory result, other alternatives already developed, but not part of the normal routine, are considered. If these are also deemed insufficient, an effort is then made to design new alternatives that will operate satisfactorily in the forecasted future context. When alternatives are reviewed, found, or designed, their likely effects must be forecast and evaluated. The forecasting of the consequences of alternatives can be formal or informal, involv- ing simulation, estimation, analysis, or guessing. The aim is to predict as accurately as possible what would happen if the alterna- tive was chosen and implemented. An important input to this step 57 of the process is the forecast of the future context within which the alternative will be expected to perform. The evaluation of the alternatives involves comparing the likely consequences to the satisfaction criterion and to each other, in order to determine which alternative is most desirable, and which (if any) will produce satisfactory results. The identification or design of alternatives requires, in addition to a view of the future, information about cause and effect in the world. This kind of knowledge has not been fully developed, so that a considerable degree of uncertainty is present in all planning. A further complication arises from the growing recogni- tion that within a social system "everything affects everything else."77 This combination of complexity and uncertainty would seem to make the likelihood of successful rational action very proble- matic. In practice, the problems of uncertainty and complexity are overcome with the aid of knowledge, experimentation, and simplifi- cation. The applicable knowledge consists of empirical and theo- retical information about what causes what. When gaps in this knowledge are encountered, trial and error and other forms of experimentation are employed to attempt to discern causal connec- tions. The extreme complexity of the matters and environments to which planning is applied are simplified by focusing on subsystems and regarding them as essentially independent. None of these strategies completely eliminates the problems of complexity and 58 uncertainty, but there is evidence that they make them manageable. Simon argues as follows. . . . human problem solving, from the most blundering to the most insightful, involves nothing more than varying mixtures of trial and error and selectivity. The selec- tivity derives from various rules of thumb, or heuristics, that suggest which paths should be tried first and which leads are promising. We do not need to postulate processes more sophisticated than those involved in organic evolution to explain how engrmous problem mazes are cut down to quite reasonable size.7 At least some kinds of hierarchic systems can be approximated successfully as nearly decomposable systems. The main theoretical findings from the approach can be summed up in two propositions: (a) in a nearly decompos- able system, the short-run behavior of each of the com- ponent subsystems is approximately independent of the short-run behavior of the other components; (b) in the long-run, the behavior of any one of the components depends in only an aggregate way on the behavior of the other components. In the dynamics of social systems, where members of a system communicate with and influence other members, near decomposability is generally very prominent.80 As a result of this characteristic of near decomposability, planners are able to realistically entertain alternatives despite the fact that everything is related to everything else in a social system. This view is shared by Alexander, who argues that "no complex adaptive system will succeed in adapting in a reasonable amount of time unless the adaptation can proceed subsystem by sub- system, each subsystem relatively independent of the others."81 Because decomposability or independence is not absolute, some effects and consequences will always be anticipated or erroneously predicted, but the characteristic serves to reduce staggering complexity to a tenable level. 59 Proposed alternatives developed through review, search, or design processes may be formally tested for their likely conse- 82 Such models incor- quences through the use of computer models. porate knowledge and assumptions about the state of the world and how it changes. The models are simplified representations of the real world that the planner can manipulate in order to simulate the effects of alternatives. To the extent that a model accurately predicts the results of an action, it can obviate the need for actual experimental testing of proposals.83 The predictive capacity of a model is, of course, dependent on the validity of the knowledge, theories, and assumptions with which it is constructed. The use of computers adds speed and computational accuracy to the modelling endeavor, but in no way alters the fundamental importance of the information and relationships that comprise the model itself. The process by which alternatives are developed, simulated, and evaluated makes the actual choice stage of planning essentially pro forma. The predicted effects of alternatives are compared to a satisfaction criterion and to one another, and search or design are continued only until a satisfactory alternative has been developed. Whether the choice stage and its two successors, implementation and evaluation, are best conceived as elements of planning or as separate activities is largely a definitional issue. The aim of the imple- lnentation stage is to translate plans and decisions into action. 'The task of the evaluation stage is to determine what was really implemented and what effects are attributable to the program or policy. One useful way to conceptually organize the stages may be 60 to think of planning, choice, implementation, and evaluation as sequential activities in a rational action cycle. The final stage, evaluation, provides information back to the preceding stages of the cycle. The reconsidered conception of planning presented in this section occupies a middle ground between optimistic versions of rational planning and pessimistic views of disjointed incrementalism and muddling through. The planning process described is future- oriented, semi-comprehensive, and boundedly-rational. It seems to address or incorporate the cognitive and other kinds of limitations presented earlier, without completely abandoning the quest for rational social action. One kind of constraint not yet considered, however, is the setting within which planning is attempted. Given that some form of planning behavior can be enacted, how does it fare in the real world? The Action Settinggof Planning In recent years the "environment" has come to be regarded as an important variable or set of variables for explaining all kinds of individual and organizational behavior. Faludi has identified the environment as a determinant of the forms that planning will take.84 Among the pertinent elements of the planning environment, he speci- fied the level and pace of development, norms and values, the political system and administrative structure, the institutional structure, cleavages in society, and specific societal features. These characteristics of the environment help explain variations 61 in planning along blueprint/process, comprehensive/disjointed, and normative/functional continuums, according to Faludi. The relationship between political values and forms of planning has been explicated by Fainstein and Fainstein.85 They argued that four approaches to politics and four types of planning correspond very closely: technocratic theory with traditional (rational) planning; democratic theory with user-oriented (func- tional) planning; socialist theory with advocacy (normative) planning; and liberal theory with incrementalism (not really planning, in their view). Their opinion is that in this country incrementalism predominates, because "the very notion of planning, which assumes an overriding and ascertainable public interest that can be maximized through the positive actions of government is "85 Faludi simi- antithetical to general American political values. larly concluded that "it is exactly the failure to reach consensus in defining the public interest that accounts for the deficiencies 87 On the of planning as far as comprehensiveness is concerned." other hand, he also argues that "the delicate affair of seeking consensus between different interest-groups in my opinion increased "88 Earlier, the sophistication of the American planning profession. these problems of dissensus were discussed, and it was shown that they do not prevent the conduct of planning, but that they do com- plicate it. The pessimism of Fainstein and Fainstein applies to the impossibility of pure rational planning, while the comments of Faludi are more balanced and widely applicable. 62 Beyond general political values and theories, the specific political and administrative structure within which planning is undertaken helps explain the forms and fate of planning. Particu- larly in this country, people identified as planners often lack direct control or authority over the variables and people involved in decision making and implementation, and their role is often ambiguously defined. Beckman has argued that planners should view themselves as bureaucrats serving in official, rather than personal, capacities, recognizing their limited role compared to the dominance of politicians in the governmental system.89 Along this line, Rabinovitz found that for personal, organizational, and professional reasons planners were more likely to assume technical, rather than political, roles.90 The professionalization of planning leads planners to emphasize their narrow and unique skills, and job security is enhanced by a bureaucratic rather than political role. As Rabinovitz notes, however, a consequence of the narrow technical role for planning can be political ineffectiveness, and a notable lament of professional planners concerns their relation- ships with the political system and with politicians. As with system analysts and other problem solving professionals, planners often regard public decision making as "too political and not suffi- i."9‘ ciently rationa This view was seemingly contradicted by one recent study of politicians in Wisconsin, which found that they generally supported the idea of economic development planning.92 It was found that while the politicians were highly supportive of planning in abstract terms, they specified relatively few important 63 policy matters that they thought planning could help them with. The authors concluded that "our findings probably typify the situ- ation most encountered by professional planners - circumstances where politicians are concerned over the loss of their policy making prerogatives either to the city's planning professionals or to officials of some proposed regional government body."94 Another recent study of planning in small cities found that two basic problems were a lack of official commitment to planning, and poor relations between professional planners and municipal officials.95 A general conclusion from the study was the following: For many mayors, there was an inability to see planning as an agent of positive social change and community growth and development . . . planning was often used to address marginal areas of community life, and was geared more to support the status quo or to comply with governmental agency requirements.96 Even with the active interest and support of local politi- cal officials, the fragmented and federal nature of government in this country can mitigate against comprehensive or rational planning. With respect to some kinds of matters, the various interests and decision makers involved constitute such a dense thicket that the planner cannot identify a single focus of power or authority. Banfield cited such a situation facing the Chicago Housing Authority a number of years ago. The authority might conceivably have sought to attain its ends by one of various courses of action. . . . No major alternative to what it was doing was considered. The developing course of action - to build large slum clearance projects - was treated as fixed, this course of action had been arrived at cumulatively, so to speak, from a number of unrelated sources: Congress had made 64 certain decisions, the Illinois legislature certain others, the City Council certain others, and so on. Unless the housing authority was to embark upon the unpromising task of persuading all these bodies to change their minds, the development 'plan' had to be taken as settled - settled on the basis of decisions made without regard to each other. Aside from political and administrative considerations, in the action setting the time and costs required for planning are major concerns. These were mentioned earlier, and it need only be noted here that some decisions are of such immediate urgency that planning would be too time-consuming, and that in general the extent of plan- ning to be conducted can be subjected to cost/benefit consideration. A related kind of constraint on planning is the press of other business. Full-time planners, and especially managers or decision makers with some planning responsibilities, make choices about how to allocate their time, and planning activity might often seem less urgent or susceptible to closure than more mundane activities. As March and Simon argue, daily routine drives out planning. Stated less cryptically, we predict that when an individual is faced both with highly programmed and highly unprogrammed tasks, the former tend to take precedence over the latter even in the absence of strong overall time pressure.9 A complete specification of the action setting of planning would amount to a description of the present-state of the world. In this country, with the fragmentation of government and planning, the exact nature of the action setting is situational, of course. Certain roles and assumptions can be identified, however, that seem to pertain generally, and that comprise a simple model of public 99 decision making. Four dominant roles in the model are those of 65 producer, consumer, politician, and bureaucrat. Producers primarily seek profits, consumers seek personal utility, politicians seek votes, and bureaucrats seek security. Three core assumptions under- lying the model relate to rationality, self-interest, and uncertainty. Within limitations, the various actors search for information and alternatives that will allow them to achieve or approximate desired ends. The actors are primarily motivated by self-interest, or the pursuit of their own desired ends. The actors are confronted with uncertainty, however, about goals, how to achieve them, the actions and motivations of other actors, and similar matters. Because of uncertainty, behavior is not fully or perfectly rational, and goals are not completely achieved. Within this model, the function of planning is to reduce uncertainty and promote rationality. Uncertainty reduction, how- ever, is a source of power and influence, and not just a technical or scientific concern. With information and reduced uncertainty, the various actors in the model are better able to pursue their own self-interests, but these are to some extent in conflict. The use of information by bureaucrats to enhance their security, for example, may directly conflict with the desire of politicians to safeguard their policy making authority. For politicians, the value of plan- ning comes from the possibility of developing policies and programs that produce results pleasing to voters. Getting votes also costs money and requires the cooperation of powerful economic interests, so that politicians are also interested in information about the effects of actions on the profits of producers. The dynamics of 66 the model thus encourage considerable negotiation and bargaining among actors, with planning and other forms of uncertainty reduction filling an important function, without positing the need for an over- arching consensual public interest. Decision making within this model is based upon fact, value, role, and idiosynchratic premises. The nature of the role premises of the four types of actors has already been noted above. The func- tion of planning is to enhance the rationality of decisions, or to inform the fact premises. A primary component of the value premises of decision making is the self-interest assumption, but value sets can be complex with contradictory elements. Finally, individual actors have unique or idiosynchratic decision premises, or things that they take into mind when making choices. Because of the value and idiosynchratic premises of decision making, actors in the same roles with identical information cannot be counted upon to make the same choices. On the other hand, role and fact premises exert a considerable standardizing influence on decisions, and are the bases of coordination and control in organizations.100 This simple model of public decision making provides a picture of the action setting of planning. Planners are cast pri- marily in the role of bureaucrats, and as such seek security. Planners are also consumers, of course, and pursue their personal utility as they perceive it. To the extent that planners' fortunes are tied to those of politicians, they must also be cognizant of the need to win votes. As noted earlier, though, the desire for pro- fessional status for planning has lead to an emphasis on the narrow 67 technical skills of the role, and de-emphasis of its political aspects. The planning function provides information in order to reduce uncertainty and promote rationality, but factual premises form only one part of the basis for decision making. Politicians, bureaucrats, producers, and consumers also consider role, value, and idiosyn- chratic premises when making choices, so that decisions are not necessarily consonant with the products of planning or the desires of planners. In the action setting, planning is a valued activity, but the information it produces may be used or ignored in conflict- ing and unanticipated ways. Thus, in addition to cognitive and practical limitations on the conduct of planning, the action setting presents constraints on the utilization and impact of planning. The ability of people to envision the future and develop forms to fit it is limited, and the role of planning in public decision making is limited. At the same time, within its constraints planning can approximate rationality and comprehensiveness, and planning information is valued in the action setting. Planning has a practical and clear but limited role to perform in the making of decisions and policies to guide indi- vidual and social action. Planning in Organizations Although much of the preceding discussion has pertained most directly to social, economic, or city planning, the primary focus of this study is organizational planning. The aim of the previous 68 sections has been to examine the practice and setting of planning as a distinctive behavior, and to consider both its potential and limitations. The translation of what has been said about planning to the organizational domain is relatively straightforward. In one sense, almost all planning is organizational, in that city planning, defense planning, regional planning, and other varieties are performed by people in organizations. Weidenbaum and Rockwood have distinguished between two types of such planning, how— ever: planning by agencies for the management of their own activi- ‘01 The ties; and planning by agencies for social or public actions. fermer variety, planning within organizations for their own manage- ment, corresponds to what is termed corporate planning in the business literature, and is the principal conCern of this study. Although not centrally oriented toward social action, organizational or corporate planning does directly influence the effectiveness and activities of the agency, and so the two varieties of planning are not completely independent. All of the earlier discussion of planning definitions, varieties of planning, related activities, the planning process, and limitations on rational planning is applicable to organizational planning. With respect to private corporations, goal confusion and dissensus may be less of a problem than indicated, but for public agencies they remain difficult matters. The action setting persists as an important determinant of planning behavior, and includes both the environment of the organization and its internal structure and culture. 69 In the organizational context, a useful distinction can be made between planning and control. Several definitions offered by Anthony help clarify the distinctions. Strategic planning is the process of deciding on objectives of the organization, on changes in these objectives, on the resources used to attain these resources, and on the policies that are to govern the acquisition, use, and disposition of these resources. Management control is the process by which managers assure that resources are obtained and used effectively and efficiently in the accomplishment of the organiza- tion's objectives. Operational control is the process of assuring that specific tasks are carried out effectively and effi- ciently. Strategic planning is the variety of main interest: it can be applied to any substantive organizational concerns, including resource allocation, structure, objectives, and all sorts of poli- cies. The management control function also incorporates a planning component, though much narrower in scope that strategic planning. Planning within management control is analogous to the procedural or tactical planning varieties suggested by some other writers. For the most part (to the extent that it can be true fer any behavior), operational control deals with programmed activities and does not involve planning. The process of organizational planning is no different from the planning process described earlier. The same cognitive and practical limitations apply. Goals are often unclear or contra— dictory, the future is difficult to forecast, cause and effect 7O knowledge is incomplete, time and energy for search and design are not unlimited, and a satisfaction criterion is utilized. A major concern of strategic organizational planning is survival. This concern is particularly evident in corporate planning, with an emphasis on return-on-investment and a wary focus on the turbulent and hostile environment. The following statements reflect this concern about survival and the environment. Since business strategic planning is essentially a matter of searching for opportunities, evaluating them, and selecting a set as a basis for action, surveillance of the environment plays an important part in the entire process. A strategic planning system has two major functions: to develop an integrated, coordinated, and consistent long-term plan of action, and to facilitate Sgaptation of the corporation to environmental change.1 . . the achievement of a good fit - or congruence - between the external challenges and opportunities and the internal organization of the firm is one of the crucial factors in long-term survival. I will argue that planning in its broadest sense can make an important contribution to this adaptive process. Although most public organizations need not fear for their very survival, they must still be concerned with their environments. For example, most public agencies operate on annual budget allotments, and in seeking their due must deal with budget agencies, governing executives, and legislative bodies. Other agencies, particularly school boards, may be directly dependent on the public for financing. These forces in the environment of public organizations are of critical importance and strongly influence planning. The design and organization of the corporate planning system 106 are usually taken to be situational. A common theme in the 71 literature, however, is that planning must be closely linked to general management and decision making. Although certain planning tasks may be assigned to specialized staff personnel, planning is viewed as a central and major responsibility of managers. Marks presents this position clearly. Each firm has to find~its own way; that way which fits the particular management style, the particular environment, its current practices and the burden of its historic exper- ience. But if there is no blueprint, at least there are a number of general themes. The first is to ensure that the planning system really is concerned with the development of strategy and not with a number-crunching exercise which, as it were, freewheels outside the ongoing operation of the business. The second is to recognize that the develop- ment of strategy must be an interactive process in which most levels of management and certainly all senior levels of management are made aware of the outside pressures, the implications of alternative environmental changes and the role they have to play in coping with change. Finally, if planning is to play this creative role, it must be organized in such a way that it can be comfortably used by top management in the fulfillment of what is now their major task. 07 Marks also notes two other interesting points about the function and practice of corporate planning. One is that planning becomes increasingly important as forecasting becomes more difficult, while the need for professional planners decreases as planning becomes more difficult. His second point is that an institution- alized planning system can provide managers with the opportunity to (08 Without a formal plan- consider and discuss matters of strategy. ning system, the clamor of crises and the relative ease of dealing with routine matters can quickly lead managers to overlook, avoid, or feel too pressed for time to bother with, planning. 72 Despite the apparent-benefits of organizational planning, the numerous limitations on planning in the real world do constrain the activity, and studies have not found a great deal of effective planning going on. Early studies by Ewing and by Mockler found that business planning had not been very successful or effective, despite ‘09 In a study by Weidenbaum and Rozet, it was found 110 strong efforts. that planning played a limited role in corporate decision making. Among the problems plaguing business planning were the isolation of the planners, disjointed decision making, and a tendency of decision makers to act on their predispositions. These are precisely the kinds of difficulties often cited as hindering public planning, suggesting that the differences between private and public planning (especially organizational) may not be as great as often claimed. The particular variety of organizational planning with which this study is concerned is manpower planning. It is to manpower planning that the review now turns. Manpower Planning Manpower planning is a variety or specialty within the more general activity of planning. Consequently, as with the general activity, it is concerned with change, the future, and decisions, and with getting us from where we are to where we want to be. The particular focus of manpower planning, though, is people, especially in their role as resources or contributors within the labor force and organizations. Because people are the stuff of manpower planning, rather than buildings or roads or dollars, special 73 considerations arise. As Bramham notes, "manpower planning is con- concerned with the organization's most volatile resource, the only resource which has a mind of its own."111 Smith has enlarged on the same point, as follows. . . manpower cannot be treated simply as one resource contributing to the economy or the efficiency of the system. It is a very special resource which can change its nature when circumstances change, in a manner nor shared by any inanimate resource. It can strike, increase or decrease its productivity, migrate, and transfer itself (a valuable resourge) from one employer to another, more or less at will. The basic justification or argument for manpower planning is the same as that for planning in general, namely, that as a result of the activity the system will more nearly achieve its objectives. No choice is really available about whether to deal with manpower issues and problems: as noted by Bramham, "decisions are made whether or not there is manpower planning . . . the real choice is whether to be systematic in planning or to be swept along by events."“3 Again because people are the focus of the activity, however, a special dimension is prominent in the justification of manpower planning. According to Smith, "if manpower planning is not efficiently performed the result may be unnecessary human suffering; and again there are social costs/benefits at stake as well as the costs and benefits accruing to the planning organi- zation."n4 The aim of these introductory comments is to place manpower planning within the context of the previous lengthy discussion of general planning. Fundamentally, manpower planning is planning, 74 and the preceding sections are the foundation for what follows. As stated by Burack, "a viable approach to manpower planning is criti- cally dependent on a thorough understanding of organizational char- acteristics and of the problems and features of general planning."115 On the other hand, the people-orientation makes manpower planning distinctive, and makes it perhaps an even more multi- or inter- disciplinary undertaking than planning in general. Hughes charac- terizes manpower planning as "work upon frontiers; frontiers between the different sectors of the economy, different professional groups, different academic disciplines and, most of all, between the theo- retical planners and the practising managers and administrators."”6 Similarly, Bartholemew argues that "manpower planning is thus best viewed not as a new specialism within the management sciences but as a group activity requiring a diversity of specialisms and experience to be brought to bear on the optimal use of human resources."117 In the following sections an attempt is made to identify the elusive and frontier-spanning activity of manpower planning and to differentiate it from other related activities. The process of manpower planning is described, as well as constraints on its prac- tice in the real world. For the most part, what was previously said about general planning will apply, with the aim of this discussion being to clarify the particular activity of manpower planning. 75 Definitions of Manpower Planning There are two primary levels at which manpower planning might be undertaken: at the level of the economy, and at the level of the individual organization. Of course, the range over which manpower planning might be applied is actually a continuum, with something like the entire international ecosystem at one end, and individual people at the other. For practical purposes, thought, the ends of the continuum are more likely to be the national economy and indi- vidual organizations. Between these endpoints, such levels as states, regions, localities, whole industries, educational systems, and vocational groupings are also identifiable and might be sub- jected to manpower planning. It is the two levels of the economy and organizations that have received the most attention, however, and Patten provides the broad definitions for these two varieties of manpower planning. At the level of the economy, manpower planning applies the processes of planning in general to the preparation and employment of people for productive purposes. . . . In a free society such as ours, manpower planning aims to enlarge job opportunities and improve training and employment deci- sions through the power of informed personal choice and cal- culated adjustment to rapidly changing demand. . . . Manpower planning in organizations . . . is the process by which a firm insures that it has the right number of people, and the right kind of people, in the right places, at the right time, doing things for which they are economically most useful.118 It is manpower planning at the level of the organization that is the primary focus of this study. Within the context of the earlier discussion of general planning, this focus coincides with planning in organizations more so than with city planning, regional planning, or any of the other varieties identified. As will become evident, 76 manpower planning in organizations is a central element of strategic planning, and some of its narrower components fall within the cate- gory of management control. The broad definition of manpower planning in organizations presented above, though suggestive and intuitively pleasing, lacks descriptive detail about what the activity really involves. The definitions below, all quite similar, are somewhat narrower in scope. Anticipating the future pattern of organization and of the business environment and then relating manpower require— ments to these conditions."9 Manpower planning aims to maintain and improve the abil- ity of the organization to achieve corporate objectives, through the development of strategies designed to enhance the contribution of manpower at all times in the foresee- able future.120 Manpower planning is a process which seeks to bring together business objectives ang manpower resources. It is inherently future oriented.1 1 . an effort to anticipate future business and environmental demands on the organization and to meet the manpower requirements dictated by these conditions. 22 Each of these definitions emphasizes the future-orientation of manpower planning. This orientation primarily involves forecast- ing the conditions and demands that manpower resources will likely need to meet in the future. Although two of these definitions incorporate organizational objectives within manpower planning, the following statement more explicitly includes consideration of present- and future-states and of the process description for achieving the latter. 77 . . manpower planning cannot effectively be confined to estimates of the probable nature and range of future per- sonnel requirements; it must also take into account the opportunities and constraints which lie between the present situation and what is likely to be the desired state of affairs at a specified phase of future time. It must design and plan for management of this process, and it is best thought of as a regularly revised plan, with both executive and analytic aspects, to monitor 12and foster a complex process of organizational change. This definition clearly relates manpower planning to the earlier discussion of planning in general. By this description, manpower planning is concerned with, in terms of human resources, where the organization is, where it wants or needs to go, and how it can get there. Manpower planning is also concerned with what is fixed and what is variable, with design, and with implementation. It is a process, rather than a document or blueprint. The key temporal consideration is the future, and change is sought, rather than accepted or opposed. Although it has its own peculiarities, manpower planning is shown by the definition above to be a form of planning. Just as the general activity of planning is closely related to and easily confused with a number of other approaches to social rationality, so manpower planning is associated with other human resource activities. In the following section these other activi- ties are distinguished from the principal concern of this study, manpower planning. 78 Processes Related to Manpower Planning The primary set of activities that needs to be distinguished from manpower planning in organizations is that termed personnel administration or personnel management. According to Burack, there is a "key distinction between manpower planning and traditional 'personnel management' - namely that manpower planning is intrinsic to and a triggering element of organizational change, whereas per- sonnel management as commonly conceived is reactive and adjustive to the organizational environment as it finds it."124 As compared to the manpower planning aim of devising means for achieving desired ends in the future, the business of personnel administration is to implement policies and programs now so as to hire, train, assign, and compensate employees and get the work of the organization accomplished. Personnel administration is considerably more action- and present-oriented than manpower planning. Needless to say, however, the two sets of activities are not completely separable. The activities of personnel administration represent the implementation of manpower plans, and the stages of planning and programming do merge together. In general, however, manpower planning involves analyzing and designing, whereas personnel administration involves selecting, teaching, appraising, and so on. Planning for manpower acquisition, development, allocation, and uti- lization is within the purview of manpower planning, while executing the plans and managing the activities belongs to personnel adminis- tration. 79 The activities of personnel and replacement planning occupy the ground where manpower planning and personnel administration intersect. Whereas manpower planning in its complete form is con- cerned with the goals of the organization and with devising means for achieving them with human resources, personnel planning has the more mundane aim of planning for implementation. That is, personnel planning is concerned with such matters as assuring that job vacan- cies are filled in a timely fashion; assuring that training programs are scheduled and staffed satisfactorily; assuring that turnover among employees is monitored and studied; and so on. These matters call for planning behavior, but are not as broad in scope as the more basic concerns of manpower planning. With respect to the organizational planning terminology introduced previously, manpower planning corresponds to the cate- gory of strategic planning. It deals with the objectives of the organization, including changes in them, and seeks to discover resource and policy requirements for attaining them. Personnel planning and the managerial aspects of personnel administration correspond to the management control category. They are concerned primarily with obtaining and using resources in order to achieve the goals of the organization. Finally, the most routine and pro- grammed aspects of personnel administration fall into the operational control category. These include both the supervision and implemen- tation of specific tasks. The interests of this study include the activities comprising both manpower and personnel planning, as described above. From this 80 point onward, the term manpower planning should be understood to also include those narrower activities identified with personnel planning. Those activities that are within the personnel adminis- tration category will not be of intrinsic interest for this study; inasmuch as they are what manpower planning plans for, however, they assume a certain relevance and will receive some additional attention throughout. The Manpower Planning Process Although several more specifically applicable words might be added, there is no compelling reason to create a special manpower planning process, as the general planning process already described can be easily adapted. In this section the application of the gen- eral planning process to manpower planning is discussed. The identification of goals, values, and preferences precedes other stages of the manpower planning process; as with general plan- ning, however, this activity is frequently performed only implicitly. Thisis probably particularly true for public organizations, as pri- vate firms at least have profit or return on investment as relatively unambiguous objectives. In all cases, desired ends of some form are needed for change to be directed and for the "right" numbers and kinds of people to be recognized. Although specific manpower objec- tives may be formulated and used, overall organizational goals toward which manpower planning efforts can be aimed are also needed. Along with a view of where the organization wants to go, a picture of the present situation of the organization and its human 81 resources is needed for manpower planning. As Bramham notes, "before making any forecasts, or plans and policies to meet them, a 125 The principal clear picture of the organization is needed.” aspects of the present-state of the organization that are of specific interest for manpower planning are workload, productivity, jobs, and people. In other words, the work of the organization, how long it takes to do it, how it is structured, how many people toil at it, and the kinds of people employed are all concerns of manpower plan- ning. Such techniques as work load studies, time and motion studies, job analysis, career path analysis, personnel inventories and manage- ment information systems can be used to provide the pertinent infor- mation about the current condition of the organization. Also of interest for manpower planning is the present-state of the organi- zation vis-a-vis the criteria based on overall desired ends. By comparing manpower goals to the current manpower situ- ation, and overall goals to the general present-state, problems and shortcomings can be identified. Because in many organizations the identification of goals and/or the monitoring of the present-stage are done only implicitly or informally, however, the identification of discrepancies between the two is often rather arbitrary and based on hunches or intuition. Since this stage produces the matters to be planned for, it would seem desirable that the identification of human resource or overall organization problems be conducted syste- matically. This requires that explicit attention be given to both desired ends and the current condition, as well as to discrepancies between them. 82 Another way to describe the initial steps in the manpower ‘26 Between the planning process is in terms of supply and demand. goals of the organization and information about current jobs and workload, a picture of the demand for manpower emerges. The supply side of the manpower situation is provided by information about current employees and the relevant aspects of the labor market. The comparison of manpower supply and demand is analogous to the general planning stage of problem or discrepancy identification. Following the identification of differences between current manpower demand and supply, or more generally between the desired ends and present-state of the organization, the magnitude and urgency of the problems must be assessed. If the discrepancies are not con- siderable, or if the present situation is viewed as satisfactory, the complete manpower planning process may not be activiated. Also, if the consequences of a discrepancy are believed to be especially urgent, immediate action may be required prior to complete or formal planning. Only in those instances in which identified problems are viewed as serious but not requiring emergency action is the entire manpower planning process likely to be undertaken. Even given these preconditions of magnitude and time, whether manpower planning is initiated, and its extent, depends also on the dominant conception of what is variable and what is fixed. To the degree that the structure of the organization, its jobs, its poli- cies, the kinds of employees it has traditionally attracted, or the characteristics of its environment are taken as given by planners and decision makers, the practice of manpower planning is constrained 83 or made impossible. In a situation characterized by fixed parameters, rather than manipulative variables, manpower planning is unlikely to be initiated, and would be severely restricted if undertaken. For those problems and discrepancies that survive the pre- liminary screening stages of the planning process, information about the future situations within which they are to be resolved is needed. In general, the aim of the forecasting stage is to supply predictions about the state of goals, the organization, and the environment at specified future junctures. Forecasts are particularly needed for two classes of matters: information is required concerning changes that will occur over which the organization has little or no control; and information is required about what will happen to manipulable variables if present organizational practices are continued unchanged. With these forecasts the organization can estimate the future conse- quences of the current course of action, and also learn something about the context within which alternative actions would be applied, if necessary. Beyond this general forecasting, manpower planning especially requires manpower supply and demand predictions. In addition to goals, organizational characteristics, and environmental considera- tions, supply and demand forecasting are concerned particularly with jobs, workload, productivity, employees, and the labor market. The measurement of the present and future internal manpower supply of the organization involves such matters as retention, assignment, and promotion, as well as characteristics of employees.127 The forecasting of external manpower supply, beyond identifying the 84 knowledges, skills, and abilities available in the labor market, must also consider population changes, geographic distributions, employment preferences, and similar matters. On the other side of the ledger, one aspect of demand forecasting involves the provision of information about future jobs and manpower utilization in the ‘28 Demand forecasting is also concerned with the organization. future work load of the organization, and its implications for man- power needs. An important but often overlooked element of demand forecasting is consideration of the kinds of people needed by the organization in the future. Because numbers of people based on work load forecasting are simpler to determine, little attention is often given to the qualitative dimension of manpower demand. The saliency of the "kinds of people" consideration is emphasized by Bramham. The problem seems to be that demand may imply a simple identification of workload whereas it is at least as important as workload (and indeed the purpose of require- ment forecasting) to gain a knowledge of the type and quality of people the organization should employ. This should not be treated as purely a numerical problem since decisions about the way the pgganization is to be manned are perhaps more important.1 Another aspect of forecasting that should be mentioned is uncertainty. With any sort of forecasting the resulting predictions are estimates, and it is important to consider their probable reli- ability. Past behavior, causal knowledge, the extent of turbulence in the environment and relative agreement among experts are some means of judging the certainty or uncertainty of forecasts. With respect to manpower planning, Walker has argued that "the chosen 85 approach to manpower forecasting should permit building in of uncertainty as a systematic feature, and its handling must be appro- "130 Clearly, in preparing to priate to the degree of uncertainty. meet future human resource requirements, the organization needs to weigh carefully both the forecasts of future conditions and the likely reliability of those forecasts. Once the problems in need of planning have been identified and the forecasts of future conditions have been made, the planning process proceeds to the development of alternative programs, poli- cies, or practices. Phrased somewhat differently, the task is to identify forms that will solve or ameliorate the problems, and fit within the future context. In terms of manpower planning, the need is to devise combinations of people, jobs, programs, and policies such that human resource problems are overcome, and such that goal achievement by the organization in the future is satisfactory. As in the case of general planning, the process of develop- ing alternative forms can be expected to begin in familiar territory, and proceed onto less familiar ground only if necessary. Three rela- tively discrete stages in this process are the review of programmed responses already in the repertoire of the organization, search for other developed alternatives, and the design of new alternatives. The effort to locate alternatives continues only until a satisfactory one is found, so that the search and design stages are not always reached. The criteria that are used to judge alternatives are, of course, based on the goals and values (explicit or implicit) of the organization that undergird the entire planning process. 86 In order for alternatives to be judged, their likely conse- quences must be specified and compared to the satisfaction criteria. This forecasting or estimation of the effects of alternatives is no less complicated a matter for manpower planning than for general planning. In a large organization, for example, the seemingly routine need for policies and programs that rationalize personnel movements and result in jobs being filled in a timely fashion is 131 exceedingly complex. Much of the published work on manpower planning in organizations is addressed to this difficulty, and tends 132 Aside from to be technically and mathematically sophisticated. the mathematics, however, the logic of these studies is simple. In general, they seek to specify models of the personnel flows in par- ticular organizations, so that the effects of proposed changes can be tested. The models are merely mathematical representations of hiring, training, assignment, promotion, retention, and similar practices. By changing certain personnel flows to represent possible alternatives, the models can be used to estimate the consequences at other points in the organization, and to predict consequences over time. As complex as this modelling can be, it addresses one of the more mundane aspects of alternative testing in manpower planning. It is much more difficult to predict the effects of qualitative changes in the kinds of people sought, of changes in the work envir- onment and organizational climate, or of fundamental changes in the whole structure of work in the firm. The uncertainty attending these kinds of forecasts is probably considerable, and farmal computer or 87 mathematical models are not likely to be available for estimating the consequences of such changes. Nevertheless, if alternatives such as these are developed during the planning process, some pre- dictions or guesses will be needed about their effects, so that choices can be made. The making of choices between alternatives, the implemen- tation of chosen practices, and their evaluation complete the human resource management cycle. Some authorities view these three final stages as elements of manpower planning, while others see the plan- ning process ending with the development, forecasting, and evaluation of alternatives prior to choice. Again, the disagreement is largely a semantic one. By either conception, choice is made on the basis of comparing the probable effects of alternatives to those of their competitors, and to the satisfaction criteria. Following decision making, the implementation stage involves "the translation of man- "133 Finally, power plans into a series of integrated activities. the purpose of the concluding evaluation stage is to provide infor- mation about what actually happens when alternatives are implemented. Among the evaluation procedures used with manpower planning are human resource valuation, human capital budgeting, and cost-benefit analysis.]34, The preceding description of the manpower planning process has closely paralleled that of general planning. In principal, at least, manpower planning is simply one form of planning, and the same process and stages apply. The use of the terms supply and demand may at first seem to introduce new considerations, but they 88 refer only to present and future resources and requirements, and are easily handled within the general planning process. A diagram of the manpower planning process, incorporating some of the terms specific to it, is presented as Figure 1. As with planning in general, problems of goal consensus, cost, and cognitive burden also limit the practice of manpower planning, so that it cannot be perfectly rational or comprehensive. These practical limitations should be understood to restrict the conduct of manpower planning, though they were not completely dis- cussed above. In the following section, some of the factors that specifically influence manpower planning in practice are considered. Manpower Planning in Practice One of the primary practical considerations that influences the conduct of manpower planning is the location and status of the function within the organization. The very name of the activity introduces a kind of duality or schizophrenia that complicates the decision about where to assign the function. The two major options are usually the personnel unit and the planning unit. Assignment of manpower planning to the personnel unit in an organization reflects recognition of the manpower aspects of the activity, while assign- ment to the planning unit reflects recognition of its planning aspects. It seems likely that the choice is more than merely aca- demic; personnel units have manpower expertise, but are ordinarily present-oriented, whereas planning units have the desired future- orientation, but lack expertise in personnel matters and often 89 Present-State Inte]]igence, External Internal Investigation . . Manpower Manpower Organizational Review Review 1"" Goals. Values <—i & Preferences Jobs Organizational Work Load Structure Productivity 8 Culture V Identification of Problems and Discrepancies Recognition -> Problem Assessment Variable & Forecasting of Future Conditions —> Parameter <—-l . Differentiation Environment Organization Forecasting . _ Manpower Supply & Demand Alternative Develppment and Testing Review Search for Design Development ——> Programmed—p Developed——-> New Responses Alternatives Alternatives Plans for (1 Recruitment Development Selection ChOice Training Promotion Retirement Implementation, 5 . . . Evaluation 4—-—[Manpower Utilization 1 Feedback ~ Adapted from John Bramham, Practical Manpower Planning (London: Personnel Management, 1975): p. 29. Institute of Figure 2.l.--A Framework for Manpower Planning. 90 are outside the mainstream of decision making and implementation in organizations. Related to the question of organizational location for man- power planning is the matter of the status and influence of the activity. A common theme in the literature is that manpower planning needs to be completely integrated with other varieties of planning (35 This closely follows the and other organizational processes. earlier discussion of the need for general planning to be integrated with the overall management of the organization, and another common refrain is that the personnel function should be less isolated. The fundamental message seems to be that planning, including manpower planning, is a major responsibility of all managers, especially top executives. One of their primary duties is to think about the future and devise strategies to enhance organizational success in years to come. To assist managers in this activity, special units may perform analytical, forecasting, and developmental tasks, but the responsi- bility for planning and decision making remains with the managers. This is just as true for manpower planning as for planning in general. In order for manpower planning to be undertaken, a substantial amount of information concerning the present- and future-states of the organization and its environment is needed. Bramham has noted that "it has been argued that lack of information is the single most important barrier preventing organizations undertaking manpower planning . . . (but) the lack of information about manpower springs "136 from a general failure to tackle manpower problems. This general failure to address human resource issues in organizations is an 91 important constraint on manpower planning, and contributes to the view that many conditions are fixed and unchangeable. The concep- tion of the present situation as unalterable and inevitable is a key impediment to the development of any planning at all, and greatly restricts the practice of planning if attempted. Another prerequisite for successful manpower planning, in addition to information and interest, is the know-how to do it. Although much of the activity is based on common sense, intuition, and judgment, some aspects of manpower planning require advanced technical and analytical skills. This is particularly true of the stages of forecasting, alternative simulation and evaluation, and program/policy evaluation. In a large organization, the specifica- tion of the present-state may also be a difficult and complex task. For manpower planning in organizations, Smith has suggested that statistics and the behavioral sciences are the major disciplines ‘37 To the extent that organizations do not have people involved. skilled in these areas, manpower planning in practice is sharply limited. Three empirical studies of manpower planning in organizations provide evidence concerning the practice of the activity and con- straining influences. The first, published in 1968, reported the general finding that manpower planning was given low priority in 44 ‘38 Among the activities given higher manufacturing firms studied. priority were capital expenditure programs, facility and equipment planning, corporate finance programs, and product planning. The 92 contention that human resource issues receive relatively little attention in organizations is supported by these findings. Another 1968 study was based on survey and interview data 139 concerning 69 firms in Minnesota. Among the findings from that study were the following. 1. Larger firms were more likely than smaller firms to conduct forecasting of manpower requirements. 2. Firms were more likely to conduct demand forecasting than supply forecasting. 3. Firms with less than 1,000 employees were least likely to conduct supply forecasting, but otherwise the larger the firm the less likely that supply forecasting would be conducted. 4. Manpower planning was slightly less likely to be a personnel unit function than not, but the difference was very small. 5. In smaller firms, manpower planning was more likely to be a personnel unit function than not. 6. For forecasting, the following factors were used, in decreasing order of significance: sales, labor supply; work load; facilities expansion, turnover; technical and administrative changes; new products; company objectives; and budget. 7. Forecasts were used with the following activities, in decreasing order of significance: recruiting; budget and financial planning; training; and trans- fers and promotions. 8. Forecasting was most difficult for management posi- tions, and secondly for professional/technical jobs. Finally, a study reported in 1978 provides information con- cerning factors associated with manpower planning sophistication in ‘40 Somewhat surprisingly, size of organ- twenty Canadian companies. ization was not found to be related to the extent and quality of manpower planning. The only factor strongly and positively 93 associated with manpower planning sophistication was the number of managerial employees above the first management level. The inter- pretation by the authors of this finding is that "both the influence of technical rationality and the bias introduced by a relatively large managerial group have a positive influence" on manpower plan- 14] A factor found to be strongly and negatively related to ning. the practice of manpower planning was the portion of employees represented by unions. The authors interpret this in the following way. The relationship between union presence and personnel policies reflects the fact that unions alter policy by redefining what can be controlled in the area of personnel decisions. The expectations and priorities, perceived by such an influential element of the organization's environ- ment, can hzye a demonstrable effect on the organization's decisions.1 A general finding of these studies is that various charac- teristics of an organization and its environment are associated with the conduct of manpower planning. The study reported herein is specifically concerned with manpower planning in police organiza- tions, and in the following section information is presented con- cerning these organizations and their environments. Police Organizations Police organizations in the United States are numerous, vary widely in size, and are extremely labor-intensive. The President's Crime Commission estimated in 1967 that 40,000 police departments operated in this country, with agencies at every level of govern- 143 ment. Apparently this figure was a serious overestimation, as 94 more recent studies have placed the number of police departments at 25,000,144 20,000,145 ‘45 and 17,000. By any of these figures, though, the number of such agencies is considerable. Estimates of the number of persons publicly employed in police protection also vary,but the figures have generally increased over time. The Crime Commission estimate in 1967 was 400,000;147 the annual survey of criminal justice expenditure and employment conducted jointly by the Law Enforcement Assistance Administration and the Bureau of the Census reported for 1977 (the latest year available) a figure of 645,000 full-time equivalent police protec- 148 tion employees. The National Manpower Survey of the Criminal Justice System projected that in 1985 state and local police pro- tection employment (not including federal) would reach 718,000.149 Based on these estimates of numbers of police organizations and employees, it is easy to compute an average agency size, which would seem to be in the range of 30-40 full-time equivalent employees. This figure is somewhat misleading, however. For example, the 34 largest city police departments (which comprise only about two-tenths of one percent of such agencies) employ over one-third of all city 150 In addition, the relatively few state and police employees. federal police protection agencies tend to be much larger than the typical local police agency. Consequently, the "average agency" has far fewer than 30-40 employees. One estimate for all city and county police agencies is that about two-thirds employ less than ten 151 employees each. Support for this estimate is provided by the results of a recent national survey of sheriff's departments, which 95 indicated that the median size for such organizations (which also 152 In general, the include jail employees) was 13 sworn personnel. population of police organizations in this country can be charac- terized as including a rather small number of large agencies and a substantial number of relatively small agencies. Personnel costs account for the largest portion of police agency budgets, by far. In 1977, it was estimated that payroll costs represented 86% of total expenditures for police protection by 153 The results of a survey also con- state and local governments. ducted in 1977, of 50 large city police departments, indicated that the average salary budget portion of the total agency budget was 81.8%, with individual city figures ranging from 47.8% to 96.0%.‘54 Except in years of unusually high capital expenditures, personnel costs seem to exceed 80% of total costs for almost all police agencies. The composition of the police protection labor force cer- tainly varies somewhat from one agency to another, but some general- izations can safely be offered. One is that the majority of police personnel occupy sworn positions, meaning that they have been "sworn in" as police officers. Almost all sworn employees start their careers in the same job classification (variously termed police officer, patrol officer, trooper, deputy sheriff, etc.) and compete with each other in the same promotional track. The 1977 survey of large city agencies found that about 80% of police employees were sworn, and that of these, about 83% were police officers or detec- tives, 12% were sergeants, and 5% were lieutenants or above.155 96 The figure of 80% sworn personnel is supported by the National Manpower Survey estimate that in 1974 78% of all police protection 156 That survey forecast increasing civilian- employees were sworn. ization in law enforcement, but the projection for 1985 was still that 75% of police personnel would be sworn. The majority of personnel resources in local police organi- zations are allocated to the basic functions of patrol and investi- gations. The National Manpower Survey estimated that 59% of police and sheriff's department employees were "directly engaged" in one of these two duties.157 The study of large city agencies found that about 56% of sworn personnel were assigned to patrol units, while about 12% were assigned to detective units.158 Police agencies at other than the local level vary in their allocation of personnel due to their varied missions; some state police agencies, for example, perform predominantly traffic-related functions, while many other state and federal agencies perform only specialized investigative functions. Data for these kinds of agencies is not available, but it seems likely that the majority of their personnel resources also start at a common classification (agent, investigator, etc.), com- pete along a common promotional track, and are assigned primarily to basic line functions (traffic enforcement, investigations). Some information on the basic characteristics of police employees is available. With respect to sex, the 1977 survey of large city police departments found that 5% of sworn employees at the rank of police officer were female, with a smaller percentage 159 of women at higher ranks. Earlier, the National Manpower Survey 97 had estimated that in 1974 only two to three percent of total sworn 160 police employees were female. In general, minority racial group members are also underrepresented among police employees, especially ‘61 Large city agencies in the South and in state police agencies. usually have the highest proportional representation of minority employees, but such jurisdictions also have the greatest minority populations, both by total and proportion. For those large city police agencies reporting such data in 1977, the average Black por- tion of sworn employees at the rank of police officer was 16.4%, while the figure for Spanish surnamed employees was 7.7%.162 Both groups were more underrepresented at higher ranks than at the police officer classification. These average figures should be interpreted cautiously, as the variation in minority employment was substantial, and a number of agencies did not report data for race. Finally, the educational attainment of police employees has increased considerably in recent years. As the National Manpower Survey noted, The pattern has been especially marked in the last five years. The porportion of sworn personnel with less than a high school education was 37 percent in 1960, 19 percent in 1970, and only 10 percent in 1974. The proportion of sworn personnel with some college attainment went from 20 percegg in 1960 to 32 percent in 1970 and to 46 percent in 1974. The 1977 survey of large city agencies found that 20% required some college education at the police officer level and that 44% provided some form of incentive pay for college credits earned.164 Policing in America is primarily considered a local respon- sibility, and most police employees work for local agencies. In 98 1977, 11.1% of all police protection employees worked for the federal government, 14.5% for states, 15.0% for counties, and 59.4% 165 If counties are for towns, cities, and other municipalities. included within the category of local jurisdictions, almost three- quarters of all police employees toil at the local level. It should be noted that this accounting does not include those employees of sheriff's departments whose duties are primarily jail- or court- related, and thus is not inflated by such personnel. These general comments on the organization and staffing of police agencies are meant to present some of the fundamental char- acteristics that impinge on any effort to conduct manpower planning in policing. As this study is concerned with manpower planning in police organizations, rather than with such planning for the entire police or criminal justice systems, more specific information about these agencies is presented in the following sections. Because police organizations are so numerous and diverse, the discussion below should be understood to focus on patterns, likelihoods, and trends, rather than on invariable attributes. Also, the study is focused on full-service police agencies, which primarily includes municipal and county police departments, sheriff's departments, and state police organizations. The characteristics of these kinds of police organizations are addressed below. Structure Most police agencies are similarly structured, with the major source of variation being size. As Drummond has noted, 99 "police departments are almost universally structured to conform to the military hierarchical model of organization."166 This form of organization is pyramidal, with authority graded vertically. The principal exposition of this structural form in the police literature is the highly influential work of O. W. Wilson, Police Administra- 5122:167 The largest organizational unit in a police department is usually the patrol division. This unit is divided into squads or platoons that work different shifts, in order to provide around-the- clock coverage (assuming the agency is sufficiently large). Indi- vidual officers on the shifts, if there is more than one officer, are ordinarily assigned to mutually-exclusive patrol areas. Patrol officers respond to details assigned them through the command and control system (most of which originate with telephone calls from the public), and otherwise "patrol" their areas in some loosely- defined fashion. The second largest unit, in police organizations suffi- ciently large to support one, is the detective division. For the most part, detectives perform follow-up or continued investigations on matters that were originally reported by the public, and prelimi- narily investigated by patrol officers. In addition, some portion of detective time is often allocated to vice-related activities, such as narcotics and gambling offenses. These kinds of offenses are not usually reported by the public, and detectives must "pro- actively" seek out instances of them. 100 The third kind of unit or function found in almost all police agencies is communications. This function includes both receiving calls from the public and communicating with officers in the field. The latter is usually conducted via radio, and involves the assignment of details to officers and the passage of routine messages. Not all police agencies have their own communications unit, but almost all officers are in touch with some kind of central dispatching center. Many agencies utilize non-sworn personnel for some or all communications functions, but many others do not. Larger agencies may have many additional specialized oper- ational, administrative, and support units, whereas small agencies may be limited to patrol, detectives, and communications. In either case or at any point in between, authority is viewed as emanating from the office of the chief of police, and is delegated downward through successive levels of command and supervisory personnel. Traditional administrative principles pertaining to chain of command, unity of command, and span of control are usually held to apply. In recent years a number of commissions and observers have recommended alterations in the standard hierarchical form of police departments. As just one example, the American Bar Association held that "more flexible organizational arrangements should be substi- tuted for the semimilitary, monolithic form of organization of the "‘68 The recommendations that have been made usually police agency. favor a more decentralized, horizontal, team-based, open model of organization. These suggestions have certainly had some impact, 101 as many police departments have decentralized and instituted some 169 However, the struc- form of team policing in the past few years. tural changes associated with these new programs have been largely superficial, and the vast majority of police agencies are still organized in the traditional hierarchical fashion.170 Management In consonance with the traditional hierarchical structure of police organizations and the frequent analogies to military organization, one would expect to find authoritarian police manage- ment, with strong direction and control. To some extent, this kind of management does prevail. Numerous rules, regulations, and pro- cedures are usually promulgated that specify in great detail proper and improper behavior in certain kinds of situations. The delega- tion of authority and the rank structure identify superiors and subordinates, and the chain of command is often taken very seriously. Obedience and loyalty are stressed, policy is developed at the executive level and passed downward, and discipline is usually closely enforced. It has frequently been noted, however, that patrol officers and detectives, the lowliest sworn employees in the police organi- 17] The rules zatfion, do their work with a great deal of freedom. and regulations primarily prohibit behaviors, and provide little Positive guidance in difficult situations. Also, police training creates as many uncertainties as it resolves, and supervisors are rarely if ever present when discretionary decisions are made in 102 172 This paradoxical the field by subordinate police officers. coexistence of rigid structure, the trappings of autocratic manage- ment, and bountiful discretionary authority at the point where the work is done, is a critical and distinctive characteristic of police organizations.173 The more recent police management literature shows an increased awareness of these kinds of issues. For example, McCreedy makes the following recommendation. The turbulent nature of contemporary society requires that police departments institutionalize the capacity to change and innovate. This necessitates a more open and flexible organizational structure and an enlightened view ila'la'éifii'é‘i"3el?§§2ef§2t3332r"§23t233}331i5?iii "the” Two recent studies suggest that some police agencies may be adopting more "enlightened" views of management. A study of one police depart— ment found employees at every level in favor of the consultative form of management.175 Another study of police employees from a wide variety of agencies and ranks found them reporting that the dominant management style in their organizations in 1974 was benevolent- authoritative, but that in 1976 the dominant style was consulta- tive.176 Another view of the recent history and present-stage of police management is provided by Donald F. Cawley, a former commis- sioner of the New York Police Department. In his article be dis- cusses the following successes and failures of police management over the period 1972-1976, and the remaining problems.177 103 Successes 1972-1976 improved, less authoritarian management reexamination of the police mission and enforcement emphasis more openness on integrity and corruption issues more cooperation with research efforts better relations with the community established better standards for police chief selection improved personnel management better utilization of technology Failures 1972-1976 failure to reduce crime failure to harmonize police mission with community expectations failure to develop a comprehensive research program failure to interact harmoniously with other criminal justice agencies failure to go beyond public relations to police community relations failure to initiate lateral entry at administrative levels failure to deal effectively with line police militancy Internal Problems budget limitations poor productivity, performance, and resource allocation union relations equal employment opportunity compliance External Problems lack of control in relations with the community pressure from politicians problems associated with decriminalization of offenses problems with consolidation of support services Some of these successes, failures, and problems will be dis- cussed further in the following sections. In terms of the manage- ment of police organizations, Cawley's observations support the suggestion that a more open and flexible style may be evolving. This may bring police management more in line with the realities of police work. The formal distribution of authority generally remains 'the same, however, and it is difficult to differentiate "nice guy" 104 changes in management style from substantive changes in policy and decision making. Two of the currently popular programs for police operational improvement, Managing Patrol Operations (MPO) and Managing Criminal Investigations (MCI), seem to be aimed at estab- lishing greater management direction and control in the police 178 If, as seems to be the case, these programs organization. reflect the state of the art of police management thinking and practice, the suggestions concerning the passing of rigid, author- itarian management in police organizations may be premature. Personnel Administration One of the critical aspects of police organizations for manpower planning is personnel administration. It is through the personnel function that much of the data needed for manpower plan- ning must be sought, and manpower plans are largely implemented through the personnel function. The somewhat narrower activities of personnel planning, in particular, are intimately tied to per- sonnel administration. Several studies of the current state of police personnel 179 practices have recently been published. The descriptions of specific personnel activities presented below draw from them. Recruitment The most used recruitment practices in mediUm- and large-sized cities are special posters in public places, requests for referrals from schools, special outreach programs for minorities, and want ads in local newspapers. The most effective practices are want ads in local newspapers, special posters in public places, radio/TV spot announcements, and special out- reach programs for minorities.180 Recruitment practices do not vary widely between sizes or types of agencies, 105 except that larger municipalities utilize more varied and formal procedures, and state agencies are presently most likely to use special recruiting of minorities.18 Selection A majority of police departments in medium- and large-sized cities utilize these selection requirements: minimum and maximum age; minimum educa- tion; visual acuity and color vision; U.S. citizenship; valid driver's license; and no prior felony conviction. A majority also use these selection devices: background investigation; medical examination; oral interview, written examination; physical agility teat; and psychiatric/psychological examination.18 Efforts to establish criterion validity for selection requirements and devices have met with mixed results.‘83 Promotion A majority of police department in medium- and large-sized cities use the following standards in some way in their promotional process: written examination; seniority within rank; service length in agency; performance evaluation; and oral interview. About one-half of these agencies use the "ruletrfthree" whereby promotions must be from among the top three on the eligibility list.184 The least used promotional standards are peer evaluations, in- service training, awards/commendations, and assessment center evaluations. Appraisal A large majority of police depart- ments use formal performance evaluation systems for both sworn and civilian personnel. Reviews are more frequent for lower ranking personnel. A majority of agencies report using appraisals for counseling, pro- motion, dismissal, discipline, and assignment/transfer, but few use them for salary decisions.1 5 Many police performance appraisal systems have been judged totally inadequate by observers and police employees, althgugh sophisticated applications have also been cited.‘8 Another area of personnel administration that has received considerable attention in police agencies is career development.188 This attention and interest is primarily attributable to two con- cerns: as police departments are almost completely career organiza- tions, managers and specialists must be developed from among career employees; and, as the largest personnel category is also at the 106 bottom of the organization chart, the promotional aspirations of many employees may not be met, potentially creating dissatisfaction and affecting performance. It has generally been assumed that training can solve the former problem, whereas solutions to the latter difficulty have not proved so easy to find. The basic need is to find ways to reward and satisfy patrol officers other than by promoting or reassigning them. In terms of career development pro- gramming, one recent study found that most medium- and large-sized agencies had provisions for educational leaves of absence and special assignments of career value, but not formalized job rota- tion or personnel exchange programs.189 Most observers seem to agree that, at least until recently, the personnel function in police organizations was poorly conducted. As for the current state of the art, Lefkowitz argues that "at the present time it appears that the relative unsophistication of police personnel administration practices and organizational management is due primarily to a marked lag in the application of available knowl- "190 The reasons cited by Heisel and Murphy for edge and techniques. the inadequacy of police personnel management are similarly failures in application, rather than shortages in knowledge or technique. 1. Failure to determine human resource objectives. 2. Unwillingness to delegate authority to accomplish human resource goals. 3. Inadequate total resources and disproportionate emphasis on field strength. Intransigent police officials and unions.191 Efforts to significantly change police personnel practices have often been less than overwhelming successes. Personnel matters 107 that seem routine and mundane are also closely tied to the security and safety needs of employees. Referring to a massive attempt at organizational reform within the Dallas Police Department, Wycoff and Kelling state that ”it now seems unquestionable that an effort at personnel reform raises an extremely complex and volatile set of issues."192 Similarly, Guyot's study led her to conclude that “reforms which make minor modifications of the present rank struc- ture have not succeeded in achieving even their limited goals."193 Several years ago, Gallas found that "the bulk of the perti- nent police literature is confined to descriptions of police personnel practices, prescriptions, and opinions."194 Since then, a number of narrow studies have been conducted into the effectiveness and validity of particular personnel practices, and the state of personnel admin- istration in police organizations seems to have improved. Her criti- cism that comprehensive studies of the effectiveness of whole personnel systems have not been conducted still remains, however. This certainly reflects the atomized and disjointed focus of personnel administration, as opposed to the comprehensive approach of manpower planning. Planning Apparently no studies have been made of the planning function in police agencies. The only solid evidence available is from the 1977 survey of large city police departments, which indicates only that most or all such agencies have planning, or research and development, units, commonly staffed with both sworn and civilian 108 195 personnel. But research concerning what these units do, or how well, is not to be found. Two textbooks on police planning published in the 19505 pre- sented the traditional planning process, and probably encouraged the development of special planning units. 0. W. Wilson defined plan- ning as "the process of developing a method or procedure or an arrangement of parts intended to facilitate the achievement of a defined objective," and discussed procedural, tactical, operational, 196 extra-departmental, and management plans. Kenney used a somewhat different typology, identifying policy, organizational, operational, 197 and program planning varieties. Since the publication of these two texts, a number of articles on police planning have appeared,198 and most police administration textbooks now have sections or 199 chapters on planning. For the most part these publications are undistinguished, being either exhortations to plan or simplistic discussions of how to plan.200 Although research studies of the nature of police planning have not been conducted, the preponderance of informed opinion seems to hold that the state of the art is rather poor. The National Advisory Commission on Criminal Justice Standards and Goals reached the fOllowing two conclusions in 1973. Extensive planning, administrative as well as opera- tional, is one of the most critical needs of the police today. There are not many police chief executives who disagree with this, but few have taken posjtive steps to encourage or implement such planning.20 109 Police agencies have a tendency to promote an indi- vidual or to give him a special assignment becuase of his proficiency as a police officer rather than because of his potential as a supervisor or specialist. In the same manner personnel are often assigned to planning units or are given planning assggpments for reasons other than their expertise in planning. Clearly, the presence of a planning unit cannot be taken as proof that serious planning is being conducted. Munro observed in 1974 that police organizational planning often amounted to nothing more than the preparation of organization charts.203 More recently, two police insiders have identified other roles played by planners. Greenberg argues that "research and planning within law enforcement agencies usually means that someone has been hired to tap additional state and federal funds or to provide support for otherwise unsub- 204 stantiated local budget requests." And Bouza notes that "many police planning bodies become handy repositories for the ideas the police commissioner does not wish to adopt but cannot afford to reject."205 Given some true interest in planning, Leonard and More suggest that failures are often due to a lack of the managerial ability needed to sustain planning effort, and to a shortage of the 206 kinds of data needed. This data deficiency problem has been elaborated by Munro. All of these planning aspects share a common need. It is the need for reliable, largely quantifiable, informa- tion, both about the police department and about its envir- onment. Most departments have an information system that is limited to the gathering of crime statistics (usually none too accurately) and the preparation of minimal admin- istrative data (sick leave, payroll data, personnel records, 110 etc.). While such information is necessary for long range planning, it is ogAy a small part of a system of information that is requ1red. Finally, another difficulty with police planning is that, because it is organizational, planners and decision makers often forget or ignore that the final outcome of policing is some form of service delivery to the public. As far back as 1962, A. C. Germann noted that most police planning was concerned with administrative procedures and efficiency, and he argued that planners must addi- tionally seek to identify goals, criteria for goal accomplishment, and factors related to successful practices, "not only with respect to generally stated norms, but also with a genuine recognition of 208 In 1973 the American Bar Association local community values." similarly urged that “planning and research efforts must be broadened to include a concern for the end product of the daily d."209 These comments operations in which the police are engage are particularly interesting in that they raise two themes not otherwise found in the police planning literature: that planning is normative and has political and ideological consequences; and that planning must be fully integrated with the overall management and operations of the organization. Environment In the section on manpower planning, it was noted that elements in the environment of an organization, such as unions, have ean effect on personnel and other practices. In general, organiza- ‘tions can be viewed as open systems, with permeable boundaries that 111 lead to interaction and interdependence with their environments. Everything beyond the boundary of an organization is in a sense part of its environment, but it is usually possible and useful to identify a more finite set of environmental entities that are of significance to an organization.210 The primary aspects of the environment of police organiza- tions that are of interest for this study are those that impinge on personnel and manpower planning matters. One of the most important such aspects is civil service. Civil service systems are frequently operated by governmental jurisdictions, and they specify various kinds of standards, policies, and practices that public agencies within the jurisdiction must follow. It is generally agreed that civil service and merit systems developed in response to the flagrant abuses of the political spoils system. They were aimed at introduc- ing rational criteria into personnel decision making, in place of nepotism and political patronage. As Burpo notes, Although they are quite diverse entities, civil service systems play integral roles in public personnel management at all levels of government in the United States. The majority of systems have as their primary purpose some measure of supervision and control over hiring, promotion and disciplinary practices of the public employer. The underlying purpose for the adoption of civil service has been to protect these particular personnel practices from adverse political influences and to insure that some measure of fairnesa and rationality is brought to the personnel process. 11 Two recent surveys provide information on the extent of civil service influence on police agencies. In medium- and large- sized cities, over 85% of police agencies have civil service coverage for at least some of their sworn ranks, and for 112 three-quarters of these the coverage is the same as for other local employees.' For civilian police positions, 83% of the agencies were covered by civil service, with the coverage in 91% of the cases being the same as for other local government employers.212 A survey of county law enforcement agencies found that most of the county police departments were covered by civil service or merit board regulations, but that less than one-half of the sheriff's depart- ments were covered.213 This is undoubtedly due to the fact that most sheriffs are elected and often somewhat independent of other aspects of county government. The actual influence of civil service systems on police personnel policies and decisions has recently been studied in a random sample of medium- and large-sized cities. The effects of such systems were found to vary, as follows. One of the study's major conclusions is that popular debate and discussion notwithstanding, there is no one "civil service system" which governs police personnel affairs in urban America. Civil service commissions differ from city to city in the roles they play in police personnel administration and, as a result, in the impacts they have on local officials, on police departmental programs and practices, and on the general quality of local law enforcement. Some commissions-- especially those which play regulatory roles in the local police personnel system - pose significant con- straints on the abilities of local officials to promote innovative police programs and to deliver high quality police services. Others - especially thse which engage in the formulation of police personnel policy - tend to promote departmental innovation and more efficient and effective criminal apprehension results in local police work. Another important category of elements in the police organi- zational environment is that of unions or employee associations. No 113 reliable information is available concerning the extent of police unionization, collective bargaining, or labor contracts, but one recent study analyzed the content of a sample of contracts.215 A total of 98 police labor contracts were examined, all representing cities with populations in excess of 100,000 people. The contracts were found to have the following kinds of clauses and provisions. 75% had management rights clauses 85% specified grievance procedures 58% referred to employee discipline 15% had cost of living adjustments 55% referred to civil service or related systems 70% had seniority provisions 17% had transfer provisions 35% had reduction in force provisions 57% had education and training provisions 40% had maintenance of standards provisions 73% had no-strike clauses Several of these kinds of provisions, such as those pertain- ing to grievances, discipline, civil service, seniority, transfers, and maintenance of standards, apply to personnel-related matters. As noted in the section on manpower planning, unions and contract agreements affect manpower planning and other personnel processes by redefining what can be controlled and changed. Burpo has argued that thus far civil service has withstood union influences, but that the growing phenomenon of productivity bargaining may have an impact on traditional civil service prerogatives.216 From the standpoint of'the police organization, both civil service systems and unions are "outside" influences, parts of the environment, and both have aTi effect on police personnel policies and practices. A particularly important environmental influence on police agencies in recent years has been the growing emphasis and 114 enforcement of equal employment opportunity and affirmative action. Provisions for these are written into federal legislation, as well as into interpretations of the U.S. Constitution. The government apparatus for applying these policies includes the federal Equal Employment Opportunity Commission (EEOC), subunits of various other federal agencies, numerous state commissions and agencies, and the courts. In addition to the general applicability of constitutional guarantees, any local jurisdictions or agencies that accept grants or revenue sharing funds from the federal government also fall within the penumbra of federal equal employment opportunity legis- lation. Although no reliable figures are available, a large number of police agencies have been challenged in the courts or before the EEOC in the past few years and been found wanting in their personnel practices. As a result these agencies have had to enter into agree- ments or consent decrees, or have been handed court orders and injunctions, that specify practices and goals for increasing their employment of minorities and women. Those agencies that have not been directly involved with the courts and the EEOC have also been influenced by equal employment opportunity and affirmative action. Many agencies have begun special recruiting efforts to attract minority and female applicants, and many agencies have also under- taken to test the validity of their selection and promotion processes. Quite clearly, minorities and women are still significantly underrepresented among the employees of police agencies, so that the recent frenzy of affirmative action activity has not been completely 115 successful. It is also possible that the emphasis on equal employment opportunity is waning, due to a lack of commitment 217 Nevertheless, among federal authorities and the white backlash. the EEOC/affirmative action phenomenon remains an important environ- mental influence on personnel policy and decision making in police organizations. Another key environmental concern for police agencies relates to fiscal matters and the budget. As public agencies, police departments are dependent on the legislative body and the chief executive in their jurisdiction for annual appropriations. Two basic considerations are that the size of the whole "pie“ depends on taxation levels and the economic condition of the jurisdiction, and that numerous other agencies compete with the police for slices of the pie. In addition to the legislative and chief executive decision makers, the local budget office or budget bureau may also wield substantial authority for the allocation of funds. The important point is that all of these decision makers and competitors are "outside of" the police organization and yet have an impact on agency finances. The size of the annual budget has tremendous ramifications for police departments, because they are so labor-intensive. In many respects the annual budget allotment fixes the size of the personnel complement, and so has a great impact on manpower planning in police organizations. Although the extent is not clear, the so-called Proposition 13 atmosphere has affected police agencies as well as other public bodies, and many departments have lost 116 218 manpower in the last year or two. Heaphy has argued that severely limited resources are the strongest impetus for change in law enforcement today.219 Another source of funds for local police agencies over the last decade or so has been the federal government. The primary sources of these funds have been the Law Enforcement Assistance Administration (LEAA), the Department of Transportation (DOT), and the Comprehensive Employment Training Act (CETA). The funds from LEAA have been available for various kinds of programs aimed at police innovation and improvement, the DOT funds have been for pro- grams related to highway safety, and the CETA funds have subsidized the employment of previously unemployed persons. As noted earlier, acceptance of these funds by an agency has made federal EEO legis- lation applicable to it. The CETA program has obviously affected police personnel matters, both by making increased manpower possible and by changing somewhat the kinds of people employed. The funding from LEAA has also influenced personnel practices in police organi- zations, as much of the money has been spent on education, training, job analysis, career development, recruiting, and similar kinds of programs. The effects of these funding sources on the internal operation of police departments has not been uniform, but many have been influenced in some way. Political figures also constitute an important element of the environment of police agencies. One of the central roles of politicians is resource allocation, and the impact of budget and fiscal concerns on the police agency has already been discussed. 117 Politicians also make policy and pass laws that affect the police, as with the equal employment opportunity issue. In most jurisdic- tions the chief elected executive (major, governor, etc.) also has the authority to appoint and remove from office the chief of police, or whatever the title of the top administrator of the law enforce- ment agency (director, superintendent, commissioner, etc.). From the point of view of the chief of police, this is certainly an important environmental consideration, and influences policy and decision making in the police organization. The proper relationship between the chief of police and the chief elected executive of the jurisdiction has received some discussion lately,220 but regardless of its form, political figures clearly are significant actors in the environment of police agencies. Finally, the community, crime, and the rest of the criminal justice system are major elements of the police organization environ- ment. Two of the main contributors to police improvement in the recent past, according to Heaphy, have been civil disorders and the 22] Each focused attention emergence of crime as a political issue. on the police and led to changes, many of which involved personnel matters. The closest unit of the criminal justice system to the police is the courts, and as case processors and legal supervisors the courts have a substantial impact on police practices. The various elements of the police organizational environ- ment discussed above seem to have some influence on the activities of police agencies, including personnel affairs, despite the fact that they are "outside of" the agencies. In the data collection 118 and analysis phase of this study, considerable attention will be given to the influence of such factors on the state of the art and feasibility of manpower planning in police organizations. Manpower Planning From the discussion of police organizations up to this point, three generalizations particularly important for manpower planning can be drawn. First, police agencies are career organizations with rigidly defined ranks and authority structures. Second, the state of police personnel administration and planning is not such that comprehensive manpower planning is likely to be found in many police agencies. Third, police agencies are susceptible to a variety of influences from beyond their boundaries. The general case for manpower planning has been presented by Ring and Dyson, both of whom have direct experience with the activity in police agencies. The intent of a human resource planning capacity within a police agency is to conduct applied personnel research, ”supported by an appropriate data collection effort, in order to isolate and define obstacles to cost-effective utilization of human resources, to determine viable alter- native solutions to those problems, and to generate the necessary solutions to those problems, and to generate the necessary information and analysis on which police management can bggs feasible objectives and appropriate decision-making. A somewhat broader description of manpower planning, which takes the individual as well as the organization into consideration, has been offered by H. H. Graham, Commissioner of the Ontario Provincial Police, Canada. 119 The primary goal of manpower planning is to ensure that the force's programs are staffed with the right numbers and kinds of people, in the right places, at the right time. Such a plan is developed and updated, broadly speaking, in two steps. First by forecasting the organi- zational requirements and the manpower supply that will be available at various times; second by determining the way in which these needs can be met through programs of recruitment, training and development, redesigning of jobs, and career planning. By these means, the force can achieve two crucial objectives: the most productive allocation of manpower and increased organizational effectiveness. In this way manpower planning may be defined as: A planned systematic approach to staffing which, whenever possible, correlates career aspggations of the individual with the needs of the force. This form of comprehensive manpower planning does not seem to be practiced, or probably even appreciated, in most police depart- ments. The President's Crime Commission found in 1967 that “although the fulfillment of police responsibilities depends upon the effective use of manpower, relatively few departments possess the resources and capabilities for providing the sound, continuous planning essen- tial for assigning personnel and evaluating police effectiveness."224 With respect to management development, Munro noted in 1974 that "this kind of advance evaluation and training is unheard of in police "225 As another indication of failure to conduct man- organizations. power planning, a survey reported in 1976 found that one-half of all police departments allocate their patrol personnel equally across shifts, despite the fact that work load varies substantially by shift.226 Several individual police agencies are noteworthy for their attempts at comprehensive manpower planning. One such agency is the Ontario Provincial Police, as described above. Another is the 120 New York Police Department, which in the early 19705 had a Personnel Planning Unit, and gave considerable attention to career paths and management development. In the general area of career development, the Los Angeles Police Department and the Los Angeles County Sheriff's Office have both been innovative. Probably the most wide- ranging effort at reform through manpower planning, however, was attempted in the Dallas Police Department in the early and mid 19705. This extensive effort included upgrading educational levels, recruit- ing women and minorities, validating selection and promotion cri- teria, providing horizontal career development opportunities, decentralizing decision making, and redesigning the basic police jobs.227 Most importantly, all of these programs were tied to an explicit statement of the goals of the organization, and to a com- prehensive plan. Unfortunately, the effort was largely a failure, as forces internal and external to the police department blocked many of the reforms and innovations. Although comprehensive efforts at manpower planning in police organizations have apparently been few and often unsuccessful, substantial energy has been devoted to some of its specific com- ponents. For example, in terms of having people in the right places at the right times, considerable work has been done to rationalize resource allocation and deployment, especially with respect to 1.228 patro This is true even though, as noted earlier, one-half of all police agencies simply allocate patrol resources evenly between shifts. The effectiveness of what police officers do has also received a great deal of attention in the last five to ten years.229 121 With respect to the Patten definition of manpower planning presented earlier, the greatest difficulties facing police agencies are the determinations of the right numbers of people needed, the right kinds of people, and the right things for them to do. Among the arguments often used to establish quantitative personnel needs in policing are population ratios, standards, needs assessment, economic determinants, and program-specific requirements.230 Each of these kinds of arguments, however, is implicitly of the form, “in order to provide a given level and kind of service, N people are needed." This is obviously then a political decision, rather than a scientific problem, at heart. And particularly so because one of the primary kinds of services believed to be provided by the police, crime prevention or deterrence, cannot be demonstrated to result from what the police do. The determination of the kinds of people needed by police agencies is similarly complicated. The primary method used to make such a determination is job analysis, which examines the nature of the work performed and translates that into required knowledges, skills, and abilities. A large number of police departments have performed job analyses, or had them performed for them, in recent years,231 at least in part to assure the content validity of their selection processes, so as to satisfy equal employment opportunity requirements. As with the determination of numbers of people, however, arguments for kinds of people are based on an implicit assumption about the nature of police work. Most job analyses make a status quo assumption, that is, they seek to determine the 122 knowledges, skills, and abilities needed to perform the police job 232 For most jobs this assumption does as presently constituted. not present a serious problem, but the nature of police work is such that police officers largely define their jobs. Consequently, the reliance on job analysis to determine the qualitative manpower needs of a police agency often amounts to allowing police job incumbents to describe themselves and to perpetuate a status quo created by them. Inasmuch as police work is intimately bound up with the distribution of values in society, with who gets what, role incum- bents would not seem to be the best qualified or most desirable persons for determining the kinds of people needed in police agencies. Given all that has been said, manpower planning would seem to be a much needed but rarely performed activity in police organi- zations. According to Ring and Dyson, "it is clear that good human resource planning is the key to solution of many of the problems 233 Apparently many of common to law enforcement administrators." the narrow components of manpower planning are individually utilized relatively commonly (such as manpower allocation or job analysis), and it may be the case that many or most larger agencies perform a brand of personnel planning, so as to assure that personnel slots are filled in a reasonably timely fashion. But comprehensive man- power planning, beginning with explicit consideration of the goals of the police agency and the kinds of jobs and people needed to most nearly attain them, seems to be very rarely attempted, or even recognized as something an agency might do. 123 Summary The general activity known as planning is a component of rational social action. It is closely related to a number of other processes, including decision making, policy analysis, and problem solving, but planning is distinguished by its explicit attention to the future and by its concern for comprehensiveness and coordination of activities directed at limited goals. Because the conduct of planning is limited by such conditions as goal dissensus, uncer- tainty in forecasting, and localized, problemistic search, planning in practice is often problem-centered and only boundedly-rational. The products of planning, including uncertainty reduction, may be actively sought by decision makers, but decisions are also based on other kinds of premises, such as values, so that the role of planning is a limited one. Manpower planning is planning with particular concern for human resources. Most generally, manpower planning is intended to assure an organization that it has the right numbers and kinds of people, and that it is using them effectively. Personnel adminis- tration, personnel management, and manpower-related decision making are activities somewhat associated with manpower planning, but the latter is distinguished by its focus on the future, strategy develop- ment, and coordination of interdependent decisions, policies, and manpower activities. The process of manpower planning is similar to that for general planning, and manpower planning in practice is also limited by such problems as goal disagreement and localized search for alternatives. In addition, the practice of manpower 124 planning seems to be influenced by characteristics of the organiza- tion and its environment. Police organizations are labor-intensive, and in the United States very numerous. Most police personnel join their organizations at a common job classification, compete along a common promotional track, and are assigned to basic line functions. Most police depart- ments are organized in the traditional hierarchical fashion, and give the impression of rigid and tightly controlled management. Paradoxically, however, the basic workers in police agencies (patrol officers and detectives) exercise a great deal of freedom and dis- cretion, with little supervision or positive management direction. Personnel-related matters in police organizations are affected by several environmental entities and conditions. Most police agencies are required to work through civil service com- missions, which seem sometimes to constrain and other times to promote innovation. Police employee unions and associations also influence personnel matters, whether formally in contract provisions or informally in agreements and understandings. In recent years equal employment opportunity considerations have developed as another factor affecting manpower decisions and processes, especially as the police have historically employed relatively few women and minorities. For decision making about the numbers of people employed by police departments, all of the participants in the government budgeting process become important. Available evidence concerning current manpower planning efforts in police organizations is minimal. It seems likely that 125 many of the component activities of personnel administration and manpower planning are widely practiced, but that manpower planning as a form of planning is not commonly undertaken by very many police agencies in this country. FO0TNOTES--CHAPTER 11 (Richard S. Bolan, "Mapping the Planning Theory Terrain," Urban and Social Change Review 8, 2 (1975): 43. 2Aaron Wildavsky, "If Planning is Everything, Maybe It's Nothing," Poligy Sciences 4 (1973): 127-153. 3Friedrich A. van Hayek, The Road to Serfdom (London: George Routledge and Sons, 1944); Karl R. Popper, The Open Society and Its Enemies (London: Routledge and Kegan Paul, 1945). 4Robert A. Dahl, "The Politics of Planning," International Social Science Journal 11 (1959): 340. 5Karl Mannheim, Man and Society in an Age of Reconstruc- tion (New York: Harcourt, Brace, 1949); Barbara Wootton, Freedom Under Planning (Chapel Hill, NC: University of North Carolina, 1945). 6Dahi, "The Politics of Planning," p. 340. 7John Friedmann and Barclay Hudson, "Knowledge and Action: A Guide to Planning Theory," Journal of the American Institute of Planners 42 (January 1974): 2. 8John Friedmann, "The Study and Practice of Planning," International Social Science Journal 11 (1959): 327-328. 9Paul Davidoff and Thomas A. Reiner, "A Choice Theory of Planging," Journal of the American Institute of Planners 30 (May 1962 : 103. 10Yehezkel Dror, "The Planning Process: A Facet Design," International Review of Administrative Sciences 29, l (1963): 50. nAndreas Faludi, "The Planning Environment and the Meaning of Planning," Regional Studies 4 (1970): 8. 12Roger L. Sisson, "How Did We Ever Make Decisions Before the Systems Approach?" Socio-Economic Planning_$ciences 6 (1972): 523. 126 127 13Wildavsky, "If Planning is Everything, Maybe It's Nothing," p. 128. 14David W. Ewing, Long Range Planning for Management (New York: Harper and Row, 1964). 15John Friedmann, "A Conceptual Model for the Analysis of Planning Behavior," Administrative Science Quarterly (1967): 227. 16John W. Dyckman, "Planning and Decision Theory," Journal of the American Institute of Planners 29 (1961): 335-345. 17C. West Churchman, The Systems Approach (New York: Dell, 1968), p. 150. 18Abraham Kaplan, "On the Strategy of Social Planning," Policy Sciences 4 (1973): 44-45. 19Larry Gamm, "Planning in Administration," Policy_Studies Journal (Autumn 1976): 74. 20Faludi, "The Planning Environment and the Meaning of Planning"; Richard E. Klosterman, "Foundations for Normative Planning," Journal of the American Institute of Planners 44, 1 (January 1978): 37-46. 21 Planning." 22Murray Weidenbaum and Linda Rockwood, "Corporate Planning versus Government Planning,“ The Public Interest 46 (Winter 1977): 59-72. 23 Behavior." 24Howell S. Baum, "Toward a Post-Industrial Planning Theory," Policy Sciences 8 (1977): 401-421. 25 26James R. Emshoff, "Planning the Process of Improving the Planning Process: A Case Study in Meta-Planning," Management Science 24, 11 (July 1978): 1095-1108; see also Thomas D. Cook and Charles L. Gruder, "Metaevaluation Research," Evaluation Quarterly 2, 1 (February 1978): 5-51. 27 Faludi, "The Planning Environment and the Meaning of Friedmann, "A Conceptual Model for the Analysis of Planning Kaplan, “On the Strategy of Social Planning." Dyckman, "Planning and Decision Theory," p. 336. 28Dror, "The Planning Process: A Facet Design," p. 51. 128 29Dahl, "The Politics of Planning," p. 340. 30Herbert A. Simon, "Decision Making and Planning," in Planning and the Urban Community, ed. Harvey Perloff (Pittsburgh: UniverSity of Pittsburgh, 1961), p. 192. 3(John W. Dyckman, "New Normative Styles in Urban Studies," Public Administration Review 31, 3 (May/June 1971): 327-334. 32Herbert A. Simon, The Sciences of the Artificial (Cambridge, MA: Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1969), p. 112. 33See Fremont J. Lyden and Ernest G. Miller, eds., Plannin - Programming:Budgeting, 2nd ed. (Chicago: Rand McNally, 1972). 34Basil Dimitriou, "The Interpenetration of Politics and Planning," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences 7 (1973): 64. 35John R. Seeley, "What is Planning? Definition and Strategy,“ Journal of the American Institute of Planners 28, 2 (May 1962): 93. 36Friedman, "The Study and Practice of Planning"; Faludi, "The Planning Environment and the Meaning of Planning." 37 p. 94. 38Stephen S. Skjei, "Urban Problems and the Theoretical Justification of Urban PlanningJ'Urban Affairnguarterly ll, 3 (1976): 333. 39Terry Moore, "Why Allow Planners To Do What They Do? A Justification from Economic Theory," Journal of the American Institute of Planners 44, 4 (October 1978): 396. 40Davidoff and Reiner, "A Choice Theory of Planning"; John Dakin, ”An Evaluation of the 'Choice' Theory of Planning," Journal of the American Institute of Planners (February 1963): 19-27. Seeley, "What is Planning? Definition and Strategy," 4(A. Benjamin Handler, "What is Planning Theory?" Journal of the American Institute of Planners 3 (1957): 144-150. 42 Davidoff and Reiner,"A Choice Theory of Planning." 431bid. 129 44Kenneth J. Arrow, Social Choice and Individual Values (New York: John Wiley and Sons, 1951); Anthony Downs, Inside Bureaucracy (Boston: Little, Brown, 1967). 45Friedmann and Hudson, "Knowledge and Action: A Guide to Planning Theory." 46 47 48 Ibid., p. 10. Bolan, "Mapping the Planning Theory Terrain." Ibid., p. 41. 491bid., p. 35. 50Friedmann and Hudson, "Knowledge and Action: A Guide to Planning Theory," pp. 13-14. 5(Wildavsky, "If Planning is Everything, Maybe It's Nothing," p. 141. 52Harold Koontz and Cyril O'Donnell, Principles of Manage- ment, 4th ed. (New York: McGraw-Hill, 1968), pp. 94-99. 53Horst W. J. Rittel and Melvin M. Webber, "Dilemmas in a General Theory of Planning," Policy Sciences 4 (1973): 159. 54Arrow, Social Choice and Individual Values. 55Edward C. Banfield, “Ends and Means in Planning," International Social Science Journal 11 (1959): 361-368. 56 57 58Herbert A. Simon, "On the Concept of Organizational Goal," Administrative Science Quarterly 9 (1964): 1-22. 59Rittel and Webber, "Dilemmas in a General Theory of Planning," p. 159. 60 61 Friedmann, "The Study and Practice of Planning." Seeley, "What is Planning? Definition and Strategy." Bolan, "Mapping the Planning Theory Terrain." Banfield, "Ends and Means in Planning." 62Herbert A. Simon, Administrative Behavior, 3rd ed. (New York: Free Press, 1976), p. 81. 130 63Banfield, "Ends and Means in Planning"; David Braybrooke and Charles E. Lindblom, A Strategygof Decision (New York: Free Press, 1963). 64James G. March and Herbert A. Simon, Organizations (New York: John Wiley, 1958): pp. 179-180. 65Rittel and Webber, "Dilemmas in a General Theory of Planning," p. 169. 66Simon, Administrative Behavior; March and Simon, Organizations; Braybrooke and Lindblom, A Strategy of Decision. 67 Simon, Administrative Behavior. 68Charles E. Lindblom, "The Science of 'Muddling Through,'" Public Administration Review 19 (1959): 79-99. 69Braybrooke and Lindblom, A Strategy of Decision. 70Amitai Etzioni, "Mixed-Scanning: A 'Third' Approach to Decision-Making," Public Administration Review 27 (December 1967): 385-392. 71 72C. Wiseman, "Selection of Major Planning Issues,“ Policy Sciences 9 (1978): 73. 73Richard M. Cyert and James G. March, A Behavioral Theory of the Firm (Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall, 1963), p. 20. 74See Richard J. Bernstein, The Restructuring of Social and Political Thepry (New York: Harcourt Brace JavanoVich, 1976), fOr a reView and synthesis of recent developments in the philosophy of the social sciences. Churchman, The Systems Approach, p. 173. 75March and Simon, Organizations, pp. 175-176. 76Simon, The Sciences of the Artificial, p. 65. 77Ira A. Lowry, “A Short Course in Model Design," Journal of the American Institute of Planners 31, 2 (May 1965): 158. 78Simon, The Sciences of the Artificial, p. 97. 791bid., p. 100. 801pm, p. 103. 131 8(Christopher Alexander, Notes on the Synthesis of Form (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University, 1964), p. 41. 82Britton Harris, “Plan or Projection: An Examination of the Use of Models in Planning," Journal of the American Institute of Planners 26, 4 (November 1960)} 265-272; Lowry, "A Short Course in Model Design"; Robert R. Mayer, "Social System Models for Planners," Journal of the American Institute of Planners 38, 3 (May 1972): 130-139. 83Harris, "Plan or Projection: An Examination of the Use of Models in Planning." 84 Planning." Faludi, "The Planning Environment and the Meaning of 85Susan S. Fainstein and Norman 1. Fainstein, “City Planning and Political Values," Urban Affairs Quarterly 6 (March 1971): 341-362. 86Fainstein and Fainstein, "City Planning and Political Values," p. 357. 87Faludi, "The Planning Environment and the Meaning of Planning," p. 5. 88 89Norman Beckman, "The Planner as Bureaucrat," Journal of the American Institute of Planners 32 (November 1964): 323-327. Ibid., p. 4. 90Francine F. Rabinovitz, "Politics, Personality and Planning," Public Administration Review 27, l (1967): 18-24. 9(E. S. Savas, "New Directions for Urban Analysis," Inter- faces 6, 1 (November 1975): 3. 92Russell W. Getter and Nick Elliott, "Receptivity of Local Elites Toward Planning," Journal of the American Institute of Planners 42 (1976): 87-95. 93Kim Quaile Hill and James c. Coomer, "Local Politicians and Their Attitudes to Planning," Long Range Planning 10 (December 1977 : 57-61. 94 Ibid., p. 60. 95Robert P. Wolensky and David L. Groves, "Planning in the Smaller City: Major Problems and a Possible Solution," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences 11 (1977): 37-41. 132 96Wolensky and Groves, "Planning in the Smaller City: Major Problems and a Possible Solution," p. 38. 97Banfield, "Ends and Means in Planning," p. 364. 98March and Simon, Organizations, p. 185. 99Randall Bartlett, Economic Foundations of Political Power (New York: Free Press, 1973). 100Simon, Administrative Behavior. 10(Weidenbaum and Rockwood, "Corporate Planning versus Government Planning." 102Robert N. Anthony, Planning and Controlg§ystemsz A Framework for Analysis (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University, 1965), pp. 16-18. 103Peter H. Gringer, "The Anatomy of Business Strategic Planning Reconsidered," The Journal of Management Studies (May 1971): 208. 104Peter Lorange and Richard F. Vancil, "How to Design a Strategic Planning System," Harvard Business Review (September- October 1976): 78. 105Maurice Marks, "Organizational Adjustment to Uncertainty," The Journal of Management Studies 14, l (1977): 1. 106Lorange and Vancil, "How to Design a Strategic Planning System." 1 107Marks, "Organizational Adjustment to Uncertainty," p. 7. 108Ibid. 109 Ewing, Long Range Planning for Management; Robert J. Mockler, Business Planning and Policy Formulation (New York: Appleton-Century-Crofts, 1972). 110Murray L. Weidenbaum and A. Bruce Rozet, Potential Industrial Adjustments to Shifts in Defense Spending (Menlo Park, CA: Stanfbrd Research Institute, 1963), p. 20. InJohn Bramham, Practical Manpower Planning (London: Institute of Personnel Management, 1975), p. 19. 133 112A. R. Smith, "Some Views on Manpower Planning,“ in Manpower Planning, ed. D. J. Bartholemew (Middlesex, England: Penguin, 1976), p. 39. 113 114 llsElmer H. Burack, Strategies for Manpower Planning and Programming(Morristown, MJ: General Learning Press, 1972), p. 54. (16D. B. Hughes, ”Introduction," in Aspects of Manpower Planning, ed. D. J. Bartholemew and B. R. Morris (London: The English Universities Press, 1971), p. 4. Bramham, Practical Manpower Planning, p. 19. Smith, “Some Views on Manpower Planning," p. 39. 117D. J. Bartholemew, ed, Manpower Planning (Middlesex, England: Penguin, 1976), p. 7. (18Thomas H. Patten, Jr., Manpower Planning and the Develop- ment of Human Resources (New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1971), p. 14. 119Ben White, "Proceedings of the Tenth Annual Research Conference on Manpower Planning and Forecasting," University of California, Institute of Industrial Relations, 1967. 120Gareth Stainer, Manpower Planning: The Management of Human Resources (London: Heinemann, 1971), p. 3. 121 p. 59. Burack, Strategies for Manpower Planning_and Programming, 122Wayne F. Cascio, Applied Psychology in Personnel Manage- ment (Reston, VA: Reston, 1978), p. 158. 123A. T. M. Wilson, "Basic Assumptions in Manpower Planning," in Manpower Planning, ed. D. J. Bartholemew (Middlesex, England: Penguin, 1976), p. 51. 124 p. 12. Burack, Strategies for Manpower Planning and Programming, 125Bramham, Practical Manpower Planning, p. 22. 126A. R. Smith, "Developments in Manpower Planning," Personnel Review 1 (1971): 44-54. 127David J. Bell, "Manpower in Corporate Planning," Long Range Planning 9 (April 1976): 31-37. 134 128Gareth Jones, David Bell, Alexander Center, and David Coleman, Perspectives in Manpower Planning (London: Institute of Personnel Management, 1967). 129Bramham, Practical Manpower Planning, p. 28. 130James W. Walker, “Manpower Planning in Organizations: A Working Paper," Indiana University, Bloomington, 1968 as reported in Burack, Strategies for Manpower Planning and Programming, p. 66; see also Ph. Lasserre,T“Planning Through Incrementalism," Socio- Economic Planning Sciences 8 (1974): 129-134. 13ISee, for example, A. R. Smith, ed., Models of Manpower Systems (London: The English Universities Press, 1970); Bartholemew and Morris, Aspects of Manpower Planning; 0. J. Bartholemew and A. R. Smith, eds., Manpower and Management Science (Lexington, MA: D.C. Heath, 1971); D. J. Clough, C. . Lewis, and A. L. Oliver, eds., Manpower PlanningnModels (London: The English Universities Press, 1974); and’Bartholemew, Manpower Planning. 132Somewhat technical but not overwhelming are Bell, "Man- power in Corporate Planning"; Norbert F. Elbert and William J. Kehoe, "How to Bridge Fact and Theory in Manpower Planning," Personnel (November-December 1976): 31-39; and Keith Ray, "Mana- gerial Manpower Plannin : A Systematic Approach," LonggRange Planning 10 (April 1977): 21-30. 133Burack. Strategies for Manpower Planning and Programming, p. 72. 134James W. Walker, "Evaluating the Practical Effectiveness of Human Resource Planning Applications," Human Resource Management 13 (1974): 19-27; J. F. Gillespie, W. E. Leininger, and H. Kahalas, "A Human Resource Planning and Valuation Model," Academy of Manage- ment Journal 19 (1976): 650-656. 135Burack, Strategies for Manpower Planning_and Programming, p. 63; Bramham, Practical Manpower Planning, p. 23; William E. Bright, "How One Company Manages Its Human Resources," Harvard Business Review (January-February 1976): 92. 136Bramham, Practical Manpower Planning, p. 150. 137 138Elmer H. Burack and Thomas J. McNichols, Management and Automation (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Labor, Manpower Administration, 1968). Smith, "Some Views on Manpower Planning," p. 45. 135 139Herbert G. Heneman and George Seltzer, Manpower Planning and Forecasting in the Firm: An Exploratory Probe (University of Minnesota, Industrial Reldtions Centers, 1968). 140David E. Dimick and Victor V. Murray, "Correlates of Substantive Policy Decisions in Organizations: The Case of Human Resource Management," Academy of Management Journal 21, 4 (December 1978): 611-623. 14]Ibid., p. 619. 142Ibid., p. 621. 143President's Commission on Law Enforcement and Administra- tion of Justice, The Challenge of Crime in a Free Society (New York: Avon Books, 1968), p. 239. 144National Advisory Commission on Criminal Justice Standards and Goals, Police (Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1973). p. 1012 ' 145The National Manppwer Survey of the Criminal Justice System: Volume Two (Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1978), p. 5. 146Cited in David a. Farmer, "The Research 'Revolution,'" Police Magazine (November 1978): 64; and Dorothy Guyot, "Bending Granite: Attempts to Change the Rank Structure of American Police Departments," Journal of Police Science and Administration 7, 3 (September 1979): 225. 147President's Commission, The Challenge of Crime in a Free Society, p. 239. 148U.S. Department of Justice, Law Enforcement Assistance Administration, and U.S. Bureau of the Census, Expenditure and Employment Data for the Criminal Justice System: 1977 (Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1979), pp. 5-7. 149The National Manpower Survey of the Criminal Justice System: Volume Two, p. 2. 150Census data cited in The National Manpower Survey of the Criminal Justice System: Volume Two, p. 5. 15(mid. 152National Sheriff's Association, County Law Enforcement: An Assessment of Capabilities and Needs (Washington, D.C.: National Sheriff's Association, 1978). 136 153Computed from Expenditure and Employment Data for the Criminal Justice System: 1977, pp. 196, 207. 154John F. Heaphy, ed., Police Practices: The General Administrative Survey (Washington, D.C.: Police Foundation, 1978). ‘55Ipid., p. 10. 156The National Manpower Survey of the Criminal Justice System: Volume Two, p. 2. 157 Ibid., p. l. 158Heaphy, Police Practices: The General Administrative Survey. p. 9. 1591oid. 160The National Manpower Survey of the Criminal Justice System: Volume Two, p. 3. 161 162 Ibid., p. 2. Heaphy, Police Practices: The General Administrative Survey. 163The National Manpower Survey of the Criminal Justice System: Volume Two, p. 3. 164Heaphy, Police Practices: The General Administrative Survey, p. 14. 165Expenditure and Employment Data for the Criminal Justice System: 1977. 166 Douglas S. Drummond, Police Culture (Beverly Hills, CA: Sage)Professional Papers in Administrative and Policy Studies, 1976 , p. 19. 167O. W. Wilson and Roy C. McLaren, Police Administration, 4th ed. (New York: McGraw-Hill, 1977). 168American Bar Association Project on Standards for Criminal Justice, The Urban Police Function (New York: American Bar Association, 1973), p. 227. 169For example, 40% of the large city agencies surveyed in 1977 reported having some sort of team policing program - Heaphy, Police Practices: The General Administrative Survey. 137 170Lawrence W. Sherman, Catherine H. Milton, and Thomas V. Kelly, Team Policing: Seven Case Studies (Washington, D.C.: Police Foundation, 1973); AlfredTI. Schwartz and Sumner N. Clarren, IDS. Cincinnati Team Policing Experiment: A Summarngeport (Washington, D.C.: Police Foundation, 1977); William G. Gay, H. Talmadge Day, and Jane P. Woodward, National Evaluation Prpgram: Neighborhood Team Policing (Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1977); Mary Ann Wycoff and George L. Kelling, The Dallas Experience: nganizational Reform (Washington, D.C.: Police Foundation, 1978). 17(Michael Banton, The Policeman in the Community (New York: Basic Books, 1964); James O. Wilson, Varieties of Police Behavior: The Management of Law and Order in Eight CommunitiesT(Cambridge, MA: Harvard University, 1968);'Egon Bittner, The Functions of the Police in Mgdern Sociepy(Washington, D.C.: Government Printing OfTice, 1970 . 172John H. McNamara, "Uncertainties in Police Work: The Relevance of Police Recruits' Backgrounds and Training," in 122. Police: Six Sociological Essays, ed. David J. Bordua (New York: John Wiley and Sons, 1967). 173Bittner, The Functions of the Police in Modern Society; Drummond, Police Culture; JZ Lefkowitz, “Industrial-Organizational Psychology and the Police," American Esychologist 32 (1977); Gary W. Cordner, "Open and Closed Models of Police Organizations: Tradi- tions, Dilemmas, and Practical Considerations," Journal of Police Science and Administration 6, 1 (March 1978): 22-34. 174Kenneth R. McCreedy, "The Changing Nature of Police Management: Theory in Transition," in Alvin W. Cohn, ed., IDE. Future of Policing (Beverly Hills, CA: Sage Criminal Justice System Annuals, 1978), p. 84. 175Ronald Reams, Jack Kuykendall, and David Burns, “Police Management Systems: What is an Appropriate Model?" Journal of Police Science and Administration 3, 4 (December 1975): 475-481. 176Gerald W. Shanahan, J. David Hunger, and Thomas L. Wheelen, "Organizational Profile of Police Agencies in the United States," Journal of Police Science and Administration 7, 3 September 1979): 354-360. 177Donald F. Cawley, "Managers Can Make a Difference: Future Directions," in the Future of Policing, ed. Alvin W. Cohn (Beverly Hills, CA: Sage Criminal Justice System Annuals, 1978), pp. 21- 55. 138 178Donald F. Cawley and H. Jerome Miron, Managing Patrol Operations: Manual (Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1977); Donald F. Cawley, H. Jerome Miron, William J. Araujo, Robert Wasserman, Timothy A. Mannello, and Yale Huffman, Managing Criminal Investigations: Manual (Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1977); David C. Anderson, "Management Moves in on the Detective," Police Magazine (March 1978): 4-13; Kevin Krajick, "Does Patrol Prevent Crime," Police Magazine (September 1978): 4-16. 179Deborah Ann Kent and Terry Eisenberg, "The Selection and Promotion of Police Officers: A Selected Review of Recent Litera- ture," The Police Chief (February 1972): 20-29; Richard G. Kohlan, "Police Promotional Procedures in Fifteen Jurisdictions," Public Personnel Management (May-June 1973): 167-170; Terry Eisenberg, Deborah Ann Kent, and Charles R. Wall, Police Personnel Practices in State and Local Governments (Washington, D.C.: Police Foundation, 1973); Lefkowitz,"Industrial-Organizationa1 Psychology and the Police"; Heaphy, Police Practices: The General Administrative Survey; George W. Greisinger, Jeffrey S. Slovak, and Joseph L. Molkup, Police Personnel Practices in Forty-Two American Cities (Washington, D.C.: Public AdmihiStration Service, 1978); James M. Poland, "Police Selection Methods and the Prediction of Police Performance," Jgurnal of Police Science and Administration 6, 4 (December 1978): 3 4-393. 180Greisinger, Slovak, and Molkup, Police Personnel Practices in Forty-Two American Cities. 18(Eisenberg, Kent, and Wall, Police Personnel Pracitces in State and Local Governments. 182Greisinger, Slovak, and Molkup, Police Personnel Practices in Forty-Two American Cities. 183Kent and Eisenberg, "The Selection and Promotion of Police Officers"; Kefkowitz, "Industrial-Organizational Psychology and the Police," pp. 353-357; Poland, "Police Selection Methods and the Prediction of Police Performance.” 184Greisinger, Slovak, and Molkup, Police Personnel Practices in Forty-Two American Cities; Heaphy, Police Practices: The General Administrative Survey. 185Eisenberg, Kent, and Wall, Police Personnel Practices in State and Local Governments; Greisinger, Slovak, and Molkup, Police Personnel Practices in Forty-Two American Cities. 186Ipid. 139 187Lefkowitz, "Industrial-Organizational Psychology and the Police," p. 352. 188Peter J. Pitchess, "Career Development for Professional Law Enforcement," Police (September-October 1970): 5-10; Peter J. Pitchess, Career Development for Law Enforcement (Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1973); DaVid I. Sheppard and Albert S. Glickman, "Development of a Model Police Career Path System," in Innovation in Law Enforcement (Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1973); Bernard Cohen, "A Police Career Path Management Appraisal System," The Police Chief (March 1975): 62-65; Valdis Lubans and Richard F. Dart, A Career Ladder Study for the Portsmouth Police Department (Hartford, CT: SociaTiDevelopment Corporation, 1976); H. H. Graham, "Manpower Development in the Ontario Provincial Police," The Police Chief (August 1976): 30-35. 189Greisinger, Slovak, and Molkup, Police Personnel Practices in Forty-Two American Cities. 190Lefkowitz, "Industrial-Organizationa1 Psychology and the Police," p. 346. 191W. Donald Heisel and Patrick V. Murphy, "Organization for Police Personnel Management," in Police Personnel Administration, 0. Glenn Stahl and Richard A. Staufenberger, eds. (Washington, D.C.: Police Foundation,l974), pp. 1-2. 192Wycoff and Kelling, The Dallas Experience: Organiza- tional Reform, pp. 82-83. 193Guyot, "Bending Granite: Attempts to Change the Rank Structure of American Police Departments," p. 253. 194Nesta M. Gallas, "Research Needs," in Police Personnel Administration, 0. Glenn Stahl and Richard A. Staufenberger, eds. (Washington, D.C.: Police Foundation, 1974), p. 236. 195 Heaphy, Police Practices: The General Administrative Survey. 1960. w. Wilson, Police Planning, 2nd ed. (Springfield, IL: Charles C. Thomas, 1957), p. 3. 197John P. Kenney, Police Management Planning (Springfield, IL: Charles C. Thomas, 1959). 140 198Richard E. McDonnell, "Planning and Research Functions," The Police Chief (September 1962): 22; Franklin G. Ashburn, "A New Dilemma in Police Planning and Research, " The Police Chief (May 1969). 42- 47; Howard S. Butler, "Is ResearCh and Planning Necessary?“ Law & Order (March 1970): 73; Wesley A. Pomeroy, "New Trends in PElice Planning," The Police Chief (February 1971). 16- 21; Gary Pence, "Program Planning Budgeting System," The Police Chief (July 1971): 52- 57; Michael E. O'Neill, "A Program Planning Budget System: An Impetus for Change in a Police Organization," Police (September 1971): 50-51; Charles L. Key and Miles R. Warren, "Kansas City. Long- Range Planning Program,“ The Police Chief (May 1972): 72- 75; Russell B. Owens and Gene Slade, "Crime Specific Planning," The Police Chief (January 1975). 46- 47; James J. Zurawski and Edward C. Brooks, TrPlanning: The Dynamics of Police Administration," FBI Law Enforcement Bulletin (June 1975): 2- 6, Michael D. Letter, "Planning and Evaluation Under Neighborhood Team Policing," The Police Chief (March 1977): 57- 60; Glen Craig, "Command ManagementiPlanning, The Police Chief (January 1978): 20-21; George P. Tielsch, "Planning— Training,“ilhe Police Chief (July 1978): 28-29. 199John Ashby, James L. LeGrande, and Raymond T. Galvin, "The Nature of the Planning Process," in Effective Police Administration, Harry W. More, ed. (San Jose: Justice Systems Development, 1975), pp. 180-192; Raymond T. Galvin and James L. LeGrande, "Planning and Research," in Municipal Police Administration, 7th ed., George D. Eastman and Esther M. Eastman, eds. (sthington, D. C: International City Management Association, 1971), pp. 208- 216; Jack L. Keykendall and Peter C. Unsinger, Community Police Administration (Chicago: Nelson- Hall, 1975), pp. 97-124; *Pafil B. Weston, Police Or anization & Management (Pacific Palisades, CA: Goodyear, 1976), pp. 67- 86; Victor I. Cizanckas and Donald G. Hanna, Modern Police Mana ement and Organization (Englewood Cliffs, NJ. Prentice-Hall, |977); Charlest. Hale, Fundamentals of Police Administration (Boston. Holbrook,1977), pp. 79- 81 ;’Vernon L. Hoy, 1TResearCh and Planning," in Local Government Police Management, Bernard L. Garmie, ed. (Washington, D.C.: International City Management Association, 1977), pp. 367- 381; Wilson and McLaren, Police Administration, pp. 157- 181; Donald F. Favreau and Joseph E. Gillespie, MOdern Police Administration (Englewood Cliffs, NJ. Prentice- Ha II, 1978), ppT_15- 30; V. A} Leonard and Harry W. More, Police Organization and Mana ement, 5th ed. (Mineola, NY: Foundation Press, 1978), pp. 358- 364; Paul M. Whisenand and R. Fred Ferguson, The Mana in of Police Or anizations, 2nd ed. (Englewood Cliffs, NJ. Prentice-Hall, 1978), 112-141; Robert Sheehan and Gary W. Cordner, Introduction to PP Police Administration (Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley, 1979), pp. 155-164. 141 200Among the exceptions are A. C. Germann, "Police Planning and Research as it Effects Police-Community Relations," Police (January-February 1962): 36-39; John T. O'Brien, "Planning Program- ming Budgeting in the Police Department of the City of New York," Police (May-June 1971): 51-54; George T. Felkenes, "Police Planning: A Stimulus for Needed Organizational Change," Police (June 1972): 24-27; Larry T. Hoover, "Planning-Programming-Budgeting Systems: Problems of Implementation fer Police Management," Journal of Police Science and Administration 2, 1 (March 1974): 82-93; Dorothy Guyot, 11Planning Begins with Problem Identification," Journal of Police Science and Administration 5, 3 (September 1977): 324-336; Anthony V. Bouza, Police Administration: Organization and Performance (New York: Pergamon Press, 1978), pp. 135-140; and Reuben M. Greenberg, “The Need for and Uses of Research and Planning," Law & Order (December 1978): 34-41. 201 National Advisory Commission, Police, p. 117. 202Ibid., p. 119. 203Jim L. Munro, Administrative Behavior and Police Organi- zation (Cincinnati: W. H. Anderson, 1974), p. 165. 204Greenberg, "The Need for and Uses of Research and Planning," p. 36. 205Bouza, Police Administration: Organization and Per- formance, p. 135. 206Leonard and More, Police Organization and Management, p. 359. 207Munro, Administrative Behavior and Police Organization, p. 166. 208Germann, "Police Planning and Research as it Effects Police-Community Relations," p. 38. 209American Bar Association. The Urban Police Function. p. 237. 210Michel Crozier and Jean-Claude Thoenig, "The Regulation of Complex Organized Systems," Administrative Science Quartenly (December 1976): 547-570. 2]]John H. Burpo, Police Unions in the Civil Service Setting (Washington, D.C.: Public Administration Service, 1979), p. 2. 212Greisinger, Slovak, and Molkup, Police Personnel Practices in Forty-Two American Cities. 142 213National Sheriff's Association, County Law Enforcement. 214George W. Greisinger, Jeffrey S. Slovak, and Joseph L. Molkup, Civil Service Systems: Their Impact on Police Administra- tion (Washington, D.C.: Public Administration Service, 1979), p. v. 215Steven A. Rynecki, Douglas A. Cairns, and Donald J. Cairns, Police Collective BargainingAgreements: A National Management Survey (Washington, D.C.: Police Executive Research Forum, 1978). 216 Burpo, Police Unions in the Civil Service Setting, p. 3. 217Clinton 8. Jones, "Critical Equal Employment Issues in Criminal Justice," Journal of Police Science and Administration 7, 2 (June 1979): 129-137. 218Rob Wilson, "Proposition 13: Coping with the Taxpayer's Revolt," Police Magazine (March 1979): 49-53. 219John F. Heaphy, "The Future of Police Improvement,"'hiCohn The Future of Policing, pp. 273-295. 220Herman Goldstein, "Governmental Setting for Police Work," in Eastman and Eastman, Municipal Police Administration, pp. 2a/ 1-2a/16; National Advisory Committee on Criminal Justice Standards and Goals, Police Chief Executive (Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1976); Robert Wasserman, "The Governmental Setting," in Garmire, Local Government Police Management, pp. 20- 38; Patrick V. Murphy and Thomas Plate, Commissioner: A View From the Top of American Law Enforcement (New York: Simon and Schuster, 1977 . 22‘Heaphy, "The Future of Police Improvement." 222Peter S. Ring and Frank Dyson, "Human Resource Planning," in Stahl and Staufenberger, Police Personnel Administration, p. 46. 223H. H. Graham, "Ontario Provincial Police Promotional Process," The Police Chief (January 1978): 47. 224President's Commission, The Challenge of Crime in a Free Society, p. 303. 225Munro, Administrative Behavior and Police Organization. p. 166. 143 226Theodore H. Schell, Don H. Overly, Stephen Schack, and Linda L. Stabile, National Evaluation Program: Traditional Pre- ventive Patrol (Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1976). 227 Wycoff and Kelling, The Dallas Experience: Organizational Reform. 228See, for example, President's Commission on Law Enforce- ment and Administration of Justice, Task Force Report: Science and Technology (Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1967); J. Chaiken, T. Crabill, L. Holliday, D. Jacquette, M. Lawless, and E. Quade, Criminal Justice Models: An Overview (Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1976); Jan M. Chaiken, Patrol Alloca- tion Methodology for Police Departments (Washington, D.C.: Govern- ment Printing Office, 1977); and Richard C. Larson, ed., "Police Deployment," Management Science 24, 12 (August 1978): 1278-1327. 229The most important and best known of these are George L. Kelling, Tony Pate, Duane Dieckman, and Charles E. Brown, Ina Kansas City Preventive Patrol Experiment: A Summary Report (Washington, D.C.: Police Foundation, 1974); Peter W. Greenwood and Joan Petersilia, The Criminal Investigation Process Volume 1: Summary and Policy Implications (Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corpora- tion, 1975); and Tony Pate, Amy Ferrara, Robert A. Bowers, and Jon Lorence, Police Response Time: Its Determinants and Effects (Washington, D.C.: Police Foundation, 1976). 230Ronald J. Waldron and John R. Altemose, "Determining and Defending Personnel Needs in Criminal Justice Or anizations," Public Administration Review 39, 4 (July/August 1979): 384-389. 231Robert N. Brenner and J. T. Duncan, Police Job-Task Analysis: An Overview (Washington, D.C.: Law Enforcement Assistance Administration, draft, 1978). 232Gary W. Cordner, "Job Analysis and the Police: Benefits and Limitations," Journal of Police Science and Administration, forthcoming. 233 Ring and Dyson, "Human Resource Planning,“ p. 57. CHAPTER III DESIGN OF THE STUDY Introduction This study of the state of the art and feasibility of manpower planning in police organizations is probably best char- acterized as exploratory field research. The construct “manpower planning" is used ambiguously in the literature, and is even more difficult to define and operationalize for the action world of police agencies. This lack of precision in the dependent construct introduces validity problems, and makes it difficult to adhere to a hypothesis testing research approach.1 An exploratory approach to the research enterprise sacri- fices formal hypothesis testing in favor of less conclusive descrip- tion and analysis of the state of the world and how it changes. As noted earlier, the primary aims of exploratory field studies are to identify important or relevant variables, to discover the relation- ships between these variables, and to set the stage for formal hypothesis testing.2 For this particular study, the principal purposes are to identify the present state of police manpower planning, to identify those factors or variables that affect the extent of manpower planning undertaken by police agencies, and to explore the relationships among these variables and their relative 144 145 importance. In essence, the study seeks to develop a dynamic description of those aspects of police agencies' worlds that impinge on their manpower planning, and to offer some tentative predictions and explanations of police agency decision making with respect to undertaking manpower planning activity. Although hypotheses are not tested in the study, data collection and analysis were guided by a set of research questions. These questions, along with a rationale for each, were presented in Chapter I. In the next section of this chapter they are restated, as they provide the foundation for the design of the study. Two data collection efforts were undertaken for the study, a series of interviews and a mail survey. Following the research questions, the interviews are discussed, as chronologically they preceded the survey, and as they were an important source of infor- mation and ideas for survey design and refinement. The discussion of the interview component of the study is followed by a section detailing the survey component. As the mail survey produced most of the data used for analysis, complete information on sample, measures, and analytical methods is presented in this section. Research Questions The research questions that served in place of hypotheses for this study were presented in Chapter I, in conjunction with a discussion of the purposes and theoretical framework of the study. As noted, the purpose of the study is to assess the state of the art and feasibility of manpower planning for police organizations. 146 Manpower planning is a process and set of activities that promises to aid organizations in rationalizing and coordinating their human resource management, so that acquisition, development, and utiliza- tion are maximally effective. As a form of rational activity, however, manpower planning poses severe cognitive and cost burdens, and studies of organizations demonstrate that their decision making and planning are at best boundedly rational. In addition to these kinds of internal constraints on rational behavior such as manpower planning, the importance of external or environmental factors in organizational decision making has also been shown by previous research. Thus, although manpower planning would seem to represent a means of ameliorating human resource problems and achieving desired ends, a variety of internal and external considerations may limit the extent to which organizations actually choose to undertake the activity. The research questions identify variables and relationships to be examined in the study. The rationales underlying the research questions were presented in Chapter I, and are not repeated here. The questions themselves are reiterated, though, as they provide the foundation for the interview and survey components of the study. The research questions are listed below. 1. What is the present level of manpower planning activity being undertaken in police organizations? 2. What is the relationship between police agency size and extent of manpower planning undertaken? 10. 11. 12. 147 What is the relationship between general economic conditions and extent of manpower planning undertaken by police organizations? What is the relationship between changes in police agency size and extent of manpower planning undertaken? What is the relationship between equal employment opportunity/affirmative action pressure and extent of manpower planning undertaken by police organi- zations? What is the relationship between the degree to which police agency personnel matters are con- strained by union contracts and extent of manpower planning undertaken? What is the relationship between the degree to which police agency personnel matters are con- trolled by external civil service units and extent of manpower planning undertaken? What is the relationship between degree of competition for qualified applicants and extent of manpower planning undertaken by police organizations? What is the relationship between police agency level (city, county, state) and extent of manpower planning undertaken? What is the relationship between perceived influence over increases and decreases in numbers of funded positions and extent of manpower planning undertaken by police organizations? What is the relationship between ability to anticipate increases and decreases in numbers of funded positions and extent of manpower planning undertaken by police organizations? What is the relationship between the perceived importance of rational factors in determining budget outcomes and extent of manpower planning undertaken by police organizations? 148 13. What is the relationship between the perceived importance of political factors in determining budget outcomes and extent of manpower planning undertaken by police organizations? 14. What is the relationship between the perceived importance of internal rational considerations for determining kinds of people needed and the extent of manpower planning undertaken by police organizations? 15. What is the relationship between the perceived importance of external rational considerations for determining kinds of people needed and the extent of manpower planning undertaken by police organizations? 16. What is the relationship between the perceived importance of external political considerations for determining kinds of people needed and extent of manpower planning undertaken by police organizations? 17. What is the relationship between the extent of manpower planning undertaken and police agency ability to attract and retain the kinds of people believed needed? 18. Based on the evidence uncovered concerning the present extent of manpower planning and the relationships among important variables, what seem to be the implications for the feasibility of manpower planning in police organizations? Interview Component The interview component of the study had two major objec- tives. One was to provide in-depth and qualitative information with respect to the processes and relationships specified in the research questions. It was hoped that this detailed information about a limited number of police agencies would provide evidence pertaining to the research issues, with value both in its own right and as an aid in interpreting responses to mail survey items. 149 A second objective of the interview component was to provide input to the survey portion of the study. Interview information was used for the selection of relevant research issues, for the design of survey questions and items, and for the refinement of the survey instrument. The interviews were decidedly exploratory, and their focus evolved over time. Information from earlier interviews was used to refine later interviews, as well as to refine the mail survey. Interview information assisted particularly in the identification of important factors affecting police agency personnel decisions, and in the clarification of the construct "manpower planning" as under- stood in police departments. Interview Sample Several criteria were used to select the police agencies to be included in the interview sample. Among these criteria were expert opinion, agency size, recent agency budget experience, and geographic representativeness. Because one of the major purposes of the interviews was to identify and clarify manpower planning as a police agency activity, it was deemed desirable to allocate limited interview time and resources to agencies that seemed likely to have some conception of or experience with manpower planning, rather than to a random sample of police organizations. Thus, one of the major reasons for selecting interview sites was evidence that some manpower planning activity might be found. Because of this sample selection criterion, the interview sites cannot be regarded in any way as a random sample of police agencies. In all 150 likelihood, the extent of manpower planning undertaken by the police departments in the interview sample exceeds the national average, and the relative importance of factors affecting them may be atypical for the entire papulation of police agencies in the United States. In order to identify police departments likely to have experience with manpower planning, a number of nationally recognized experts were contacted. These experts were persons in positions to have knowledge of the activities of police organizations throughout the country. The use of the expert opinion followed a modified Delphi approach. Initially, the largest police agencies were included on a potential site list, along with agencies identified in the literature as practitioners of manpower planning. Through telephone and personal contacts with knowledgeable persons (whose anonymity was assured), information was solicited about any other police agencies that might have experience with manpower planning. Following this initial round of contacts and literature examination, a list of 29 police organizations was produced. This list of agencies was returned to four of the experts who seemed most likely to have complete and nationwide information about the activities of police departments. Of these four experts, one was nationally recognized in police training and standards matters, one directed a national police research organization, and two occupied major positions in a federal agency that funded police programs and research efforts. With respect to the list of police agencies, the four experts were asked to respond to the following questions. 151 1. How would you rate each agency in terms of whether it generally has been at the forefront of develop- ments or has been considered a leader in the field over the last several years? 2. What is the overall quality of current top manage- ment in each of the agencies listed below? 3. To what degree do the agencies listed below under- take planning with respect to manpower and personnel issues? 4. In terms of changes over the last few years in agency size (number of positions, budgets, etc.) what has each agency experienced? 5. For each agency, please consider whether personnel staffing below the level of top management is made primarily on a political basis (e.g., partisan politics or the whims of the top administrator) or whether they are made primarily on a non-political basis (e.g., as in having a strong civil service or a "professional" orientation). 6. What are the seven to ten agencies you would most strongly recommend for site selection? Feel free to include agencies not previously listed. These expert opinions and recommendations were used together with informationwuu< ucm cowuomp—ou ages mcwccmFQ gmzoacmz mo pcmuxm mg» mcwpum$$< mgouumu we _mcoz--.P.m unamPu umummz m—aomm mo mucwg =_mumm ucm uumgpu< 388 t 225. 8. 32.22 .352 ace meowumgmuwmcou > pmuwpwpom ~m=cmuxm m_aomm mo mucvg new mcopumgmuwmcou Panorama Pacgmpxm o ccmwwmmwmmwmuwmmww I :mxmfwuca 3.5.53 $859. $8.35 335E $3852.... 325 .353 . mo ucmuxm muccuwpaa< Low :owuwumqsoo mcowawmoa eo mg¢nE=z use mgupomu PmuPprom pogucou muP>cmm Pp>ww unencumcou cow: meowuwmom eo mgmnsaz . mesmmmc :mEAo as mac can 233... 228.52 5.58:8 38‘ n. a P u _ m copamgpuruc< mcwccm—m gmzoacmz mucosa wNPm >u:mm< . . . mo ucmuxm mcoppwucou upsocoou mucmzpwcH m~wm aucmm< 185 used as an independent variable in dummy form. A city and a county dummy variable are utilized; when using dummy variables, one value must be left out, and its effect becomes part of the regression 9 constant. A second set of multiple regression analyses using the same factors is also presented, with separate analyses for city police agencies, county agencies, and state agencies. These analyses make it possible to explore differences in the importance of the factors for each level of police agency. Partial correlation and multiple regression analyses are most appropriate with interval level data, but as noted almost all of the survey measures are at best ordinal. The appropriateness of these kinds of analysis for ordinal level data is a somewhat con- troversial issue. In general, however, correlation and regression have been found to be robust procedures, in that they provide reasonable results despite violations of their underlying assump- 10 tions. The argument in favor of using these procedures in instances such as that presented by this study has been summarized by Greenberg, as follows. A growing body of evidence . . . suggests that if ordinal data are analyzed with standard regression and correlation methods little harm is done, even though the procedures cannot be justified rigorously. This insensitivity to violations of the assumptions needed to justify the pro- cedure employed (robustness, in the technical jargon) is leading many sociologists to the view that the loss entailed in the use of techniques devised for interval- level data in the analysis of ordinal-level data is greatly outweighed by the gains from the use of mathe- matical tools that are much better developed than those available for analyzing ordinal data.11 186 The argument presented by Greenberg is especially forceful with respect to this study, because of its exploratory nature. It is not one of the aims of this study to discover precise estimates of the coefficients of variables, in order to make predictions or other policy decisions. Rather, the purpose of the multivariate analyses performed are to compare the relative importance of various factors, and to obtain rough estimates of the order and sign of regression and correlation coefficients. For these pur- poses within this exploratory study, the gains from using standard correlation and regression procedures would seem to far outweigh the losses. Summar This study is best regarded as an exploratory assessment of current manpower planning activities in police agencies and of factors affecting such activities. An extensive number of inter- views with police and other government officials throughout the country were conducted, and a mail survey was sent to the 49 state police agencies and the 20l largest city and county police depart- ments in the United States. The interview sample was selected with the aid of expert opinion and data on agency size and recent growth or decline in numbers of employees. One purpose of the interviews was to collect pertinent data about the sample police agencies, but more impor- tantly the interviews were used to clarify issues and refine the mail survey instrument. The interviews conducted for the study 187 were partially unstructured, but consistently addressed a core set of police human resource planning issues. The interview data were not formally analyzed, except to identify frequently mentioned issues and considerations. The survey sample included only larger police agencies, because such agencies are required to make more personnel-related kinds of decisions, and because such agencies so disproportionately account for a substantial number of police department employees in this country. The survey sample includes only about 1.5% of the police agencies in the United States, but almost 50% of the police employees. An overall response rate of 65.6% was obtained with the survey, and the response rates for several agency level, agency size category, and geographic region were at least 50%. Guided by the research questions, eighteen primary measures were drawn from the survey questions. Analysis of the survey data was conducted using univariate, bivariate, and multivariate procedures. The analysis was guided by the research questions and by a model presented in Figure 3.1. FOOTNOTES--CHAPTER III 1Fred N. Kerlinger, Foundations of Behavioral Research, 2nd ed. (New York: Holt, Rinehart, and Winston, l973), pp. 405-408; Thomas 0. Cook and Donald T. Campbell, Quasi-Experimentation (Chicago: Rand McNally, 1979). 2Daniel Katz, "Field Studies," in Research Methods in the Behavioral Sciences, ed. Leon Festinger and Daniel Katz (New York: Holt, Rinehart, and Winston, 1953); Kerlinger, Foundations of Behavioral Research. 3U.S. Department of Justice, Law Enfbrcement Assistance Administration, and U.S. Bureau of the Census, Expenditure and Employment Data for the Criminal Justice System: 1976 (Washington, D.C.: ‘Government Printing Office, 1978); U.S. Department of Justice, Law Enforcement Assistance Administration, and U.S. Bureau of the Census, Trends in Expenditure and Employment Data for the Criminal Justice System: 1971-l976 (Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1978). 4Lawrence B. Mohr, “Process Theory and Variance Theory in Innovation Research,“ in The Diffusion of Innovations: An Assessment, eds. Michael Radnor, Irwin Feller, and Everett Rogers (Evanston, IL: Northwestern University Center for the Inter- disciplinary Study of Science and TechnolOQY. 1978). 5Expenditure and Employment Data for the Criminal Justice System: 1976. 6The 20l city and county police departments in the sample had a total of 227,l87 full-time equivalent employees in l976. Comparable figures for the state police agencies were not available, as employment data for states include other enforcement agencies in addition to the state police. However, the responses of the 39 state police agencies that returned completed surveys indicate that an average size of l,OOO employees would probably be a conservative estimate. Using this estimate, the sample police agencies account for 276,l87 full-time equivalent employees as of l976. The total reported number of police protection employees for state and local governments in 1976 was 556,926. Thus, the sample agencies employed approximately 50% of state and local police agency personnel in 976. 188 189 7Norman H. Nie, C. Hadlai Hull, Jean G. Jenkins, Karin Steinbrenner, and Dale H. Bent, Statistical Package for the Social Sciences, 2nd ed. (New York: McGraw-Hill, 1975), pp. ll9-l20. 8Nie et al., Statistical Package for the Social Sciences, p. 289. 9Jan Kmenta, Elements of Econometrics (New York: Macmillan, l97l), pp. 409-430; Fred N. Kerlinger and Elazar J. Pedhazur, Multiple Regression in Behavioral Research (New York: Holt, Rinehart, and Winston, 1073), pp. 105-109. 10Kmenta, Elements of Econometrics, pp. 247-306; Kerlinger and Pedhazur, Multiple Regression in Behavioral Research, pp. 47-48. 1]David F. Greenberg, Mathematical Criminology (New Brunswick, NJ: Rutgers University Press, l979), p. 24; see also Kerlinger and Pedhazur, Multiple Regression in Behavioral Research, pp. 44l-45l. CHAPTER IV ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION Introduction In this chapter the findings of the study are presented. Most of the data analysis discussed pertains to the survey compo- nent of the study, with interview findings used primarily to inter- pret and elaborate survey responses. The presentation of analysis and findings is made within the framework of the research questions introduced earlier. In the first section of the chapter the research questions are addressed using univariate statistics. Survey responses for the eighteen measures introduced in Chapter III are examined, as are responses to the individual questions that were used to create the composite variables. Frequency distributions and descriptive summary statistics are presented. In the second section of the chapter bivariate relation- ships are examined. These bivariate relationships provide a portion of the evidence needed to explore the effects of various factors on the extent of manpower planning undertaken in police organizations. Kendall's tau correlations are used to measure degree of associa- tion between the variables, except in the case of agency level, for which an analysis of variance procedure is used to test for differences between city, county, and state police agencies. 190 191 In the third section of the chapter several multivariate analyses are presented. These analyses explore the relative importance of the factors affecting extent of manpower planning, and the degree to which the factors jointly explain or account for variations in the activity among police agencies. Also examined are the effects of the factors on agency ability to attract and retain the kinds of people believed needed. Multiple regression and partial correlation are used for the multivariate analysis. The use of rank-order measures of association in the bivariate analysis and interval-based measures in the multivariate analysis is potentially confusing, and should be explained. As discussed in the preceding chapter, the variables are primarily ordinal-level, with numerous tied ranks, so that Kendall's tau is an appropriate bivariate measure. Despite the ordinality of the variables, however, regression is used for the multivariate analysis because it is a robust technique and it offers many advantages. Also, due to the exploratory nature of this study, precise estima- tion and hypothesis testing are not an issue. Although not presented, the bivariate relationships were also examined with interval-level measures of association, with results very similar to those obtained using Kendall's tau. The rank-order correlation coefficients were generally smaller than the product-moment coefficients, but directions of relationships were the same for each statistic and the relative magnitudes of the various relation- ships were similar with each measure of association. 192 The final research question, regarding the feasibility of manpower planning for police organizations, is discussed in Chapters V and VI. The question of feasbility requires judgments and conclu- sions drawn from all of the evidence gathered, rather than analysis of any particular survey measure or interview topic. Univariate Analysis The presentation of frequency distribution and descriptive statistics for the survey measures is organized in four major sections. In the initial section, information on extent of manpower planning activity and data collection in police agencies is presented. Information on the eight factors thought to affect the extent of manpower planning in police organizations is found in the second section. In the third section, the seven factors believed to be reciprocally related to manpower planning activity are discussed. In the final section, the responses of police agencies regarding their ability to attract and retain the kinds of people needed are reported. Extent of Manpower Planning Police survey respondents were asked to indicate the extent to which their agencies undertook ten component activities of man- power planning. The responses for the ten activities are summarized in Table 4.l. The vast majority of respondents indicated that their agencies had undertaken performance evaluation, training needs assessment, manpower inventory, and personnel information systems. Also, about one-half of the agencies had undertaken job analysis, 193 acmemwmm’.‘ ..... Rm.PP gm.F x¢.ow muwwz acacwmch 3: :2 No.2 3mm 5:33. £2. 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These are reasonably strong reliability coefficients, providing support for the combinatorial method utilized. The component items of the two composite vari- ables were also restructured in dichotomous form and tested in terms of Guttman scaling, with relatively little improvement in reproducibility attributable to the Guttman pattern.2 Both sets of items conformed to some extent to the Guttman scale pattern, with agencies that undertook uncommon activities or data collection likely to have undertaken the more common efforts as well. The coefficients or reproducibility for the manpower planning activity and information collection Guttman scales were .87 and .88, respectively, but the percent improvements due to the Guttman scaling were only .09 and .07. These figures suggest that there is some sort of a cumulative or developmental pattern to the activity and data collection components, but that a weighting procedure would not add much to the unweighted method used for creating the composite variable. The finding of considerable manpower planning effort in police agencies was generally corroborated by the interview data collected for the study. The interviewees in most of the police agencies visited reported a high level of data availability and manpower planning activity, along the lines of the component 204 information categories and activity types used in the survey and just presented. These component data and activities are integral elements of manpower planning, but it is probably not correct to infer from their presence an integrated or comprehensive approach to manpower planning. In order to do comprehensive manpower plan- ning, a police agency would need most of these kinds of information, and would need to undertake most of these kinds of activities. However, the finding that the extent of such manpower planning data collection and activity is considerable does ngt_demonstrate that most police agencies undertake comprehensive manpower planning. In order to do manpower planning comprehensively, an agency would need to conduct these specific activities within a planning frame- work of goals, analysis, problem identification, design, choice, implementation, and evaluation. The survey data provide no evidence about whether police agencies collect data and undertake manpower planning activities within such a planning framework. Information collected from project interviews and from the literature, however, strongly suggests that police manpower planning is not so comprehensive. Rather, it seems more likely that particular manpower planning activities are initiated in response to crises or particular demands, instead of as part of an integrated and explicitly goal-directed human resource manage- ment system. In most of the police agencies at which interviews were conducted, for example, activities such as training, recruit- ing, performance evaluation, and work load analysis were routinely 205 conducted, but interviewees did not seem to sense that these and other activities were interdependent and all related to the need for right numbers and kinds of people doing the right things. These individual activities may have been performed very compe- tently, but for narrow and sub-optional purposes, instead of as part of a conscious effort to contribute to organizational goal attainment. An example of demand-induced manpower planning in police agencies is provided by job analysis and selection validation. Agencies have largely undertaken these activities in response to equal employment opportunity/affirmative action pressure to demon- strate the content validity of selection and promotion processes. Similarly, much of the manpower planning data collected by police agencies is needed to satisfy equal employment opportunity related requirements or to justify budget requests. Along this line, interviewees generally indicated that government budget officials and legislative officials were increasingly requiring empirical justifications of police agency budget requests, creating an additional demand and requirements for manpower planning kinds of data. These sorts of external demands and requirements may account for some portion of manpower planning activity and data collection in police agencies; moreover, they tend to generate specific component efforts, without supplying or requiring any kind of planning framework for integration or coordination of the activi- ties. 206 In general, police agency interviewees had some notion of goal-directed manpower planning with respect to numbers of people, but not with respect to kinds of people. Most police agencies visited had analyzed their work load in such a way that they knew its magnitude and temporal and geographic distribution. With this minimal information they could deploy their employees so as to equitably apportion the work load, and they could also com- pute the numbers of people needed in order to meet traditional standards (time per event, response time, minimum number of units available at any given time, etc.). Although these standards are not demonstrably valid, and many are accepted without reflection, they do bear some resemblance to the missions of the police agency, and provide benchmarks for numbers of people determinations. By comparison, at present the purposes of manpower planning for kinds of people in police agencies are largely externally- imposed. Most of the attention to kinds of people is directed at finding female and minority applicants, or at demonstrating that current selection processes do not discriminate against such applicants. Beyond these concerns, interviewees did not report much manpower planning with respect to kinds of people in their agencies. It seems highly probable that numbers of people con- siderations are most salient because of the annual need to justify budget requests for numbers of allocated positions in police agencies. Budget and appropriations officials appeared to be very significant others, and increasingly important in times of limited growth. On the other hand, police agencies are not required to 207 justify their kinds of people annually, or even very frequently, except with respect to equal employment opportunity issues. In keeping with this situation, police agency interviewees seemed considerably less concerned about their relationships with civil service officials than about their relations with budget officials. And such concern as was evidenced was primarily related to filling vacant positions promptly, which was more of a numbers of people than a kinds of people issue. The most reasonable interpretation of the survey and interview findings would seem to be that police agencies are presently engaged in a substantial amount of manpower planning activity, but not much manpower planning. A great deal of data is collected, analyses are performed, and programming is under- taken, but primarily in response to specific internal needs, external demands, and crises. Few agencies seem to have a con- ception of manpower planning as goal-directed, as a component of overall planning and management, and as an integrating framework for the component activities and data collection. This conclusion regarding the limited scope or breadth of manpower planning in police agencies is primarily drawn from the interview data, but it seems solidly supported and it is consistent with the literature. If it is correct, it provides an important limiting condition on any analysis of the survey data. The survey measures of extent of manpower planning activity consist entirely of discrete individual activities, and the composite variables merely average the component measures. Thus, the survey analysis pertains to 208 factors affecting and related to the extent to which police agencies undertake component manpower planning activities, and not to factors affecting integrated or comprehensive efforts at manpower planning in police organizations. To some degree these factors may be identical, and their relationships with specific activities and with integrated manpower planning may be similar. It should be recognized, however, that what serves essentially as the dependent variable for much of the survey analysis is a composite of specific manpower planning activities, rather than a measure of holistic or purposive manpower planning in police organizations. Factors Affecting Extent of Manpower Planning Information is presented in this section on eight factors believed to affect the extent of manpower planning in police organizations. These factors, agency size, economic conditions, agency size change, equal employment pressure, union constraint, civil service control, competition for applicants, and agency level, are discussed in the following subsections. Agency Size.--Survey respondents were asked to report the current size of their police agencies, in terms of both employees and allocated positions. Number of full-time sworn allocated positions was chosen as the operational measure of size for the analysis, as other measures used also referred to sworn personnel and to allocated positions. The survey responses for this measure are summarized in Table 4.4. About one-half of the agencies in the 209 TABLE 4.4.--Number of Full-time Allocated Sworn Positions in Responding Sample Police Agencies (N=l42 City, County, and State Police Agencies, with Data Missing for 22 Agencies). Agency Size N % Cumu1gtive Less Than 200 9 6.3% 6.3% 201 - 400 44 31.0% 37.3% 401 - 600 28 19.7% 57.0% 601 - 800 18 12.7% 59.7% 801 - 1,000 ~ 10 7.0% 76.8% 1,001 - 2,000 19 13.4% 90.1% 2,001 - 5,000 10 7.0% 97.2% 5,001 - 10,000 3 2.1% 99.3% 10,001 + 1 0.7% 100.0% sample reported less than 500 full-time sworn allocated positions, and about three-quarters hadless than l,OOO such positions. The mean agency size was 932 full-time sworn allocated positions, while the median was 518 (central tendency and variance statistics for this and the following survey measures used in the analysis are summarized at the end of the section). Economic Conditions.--This survey question asked respon- dents to report the general economic conditions of their jurisdic- tions during the last two years. Five response Options were avail- able, ranging from rapid growth to rapid decline. The survey 210 responses to the economic conditions question are presented in Table 4.5. Over one-half of the police agencies reported moderate growth in economic conditions in their jurisdictions, and an addi- tional ll.6% reported rapid growth. About l3% of the agencies indicated economic decline in their jurisdictions, while one-fourth of the agencies reported stable economic conditions. Agency Size Change.--It was expected that the degree to which an agency's size had changed recently would give some indica- tion of personnel processing activity, which in turn would create the need for manpower planning activity. Survey respondents were asked to indicate the extent to which the number of positions allocated to their agencies had changed during the past two years, with thirteen response options in five percent increments. Report- ing decreases of some magnitude were 3l% of the reSpondents, while 2l% reported no changes in numbers of allocated positions, and 48% reported increases in size. Because it was expected that personnel processing activity would result from size changes regardless of TABLE 4.5.--General Economic Conditions in Jursidictions of Responding Police Agencies (N=l64 City, County, and State Police Agencies). Economic Condition N % Rapid Decline l 0.6% Moderate Decline 20 12.2% Stable 4l 25.0% Moderate Growth 83 50.6% Rapid Growth 19 11.6% 211 of direction, the measure was recoded to reflect a size change magnitude dimension, with responses in absolute value form. The survey responses in this format are presented in Table 4.6. About two-thirds Of the police agencies reported either no change in agency size or change less than 5%, and almost 90% reported that their numbers of allocated positions had changed by less than 10% during the past two years. For the survey analysis the agency size change variable is used in the absolute value form shown in Table 4.6. TABLE 4.6.--Changes in Number Of Allocated Positions During Last Two Years in Responding Police Agencies (N=160 City, County, and State Police Agencies, with Missing Data for Four Agencies). Magnitude of Increase or N % Decrease in Agency Size NO Change 33 20.6% Less Than 5% 78 48.8% 5-10% 31 19.4% ll-lS% 11 6.9% 16-20% 3 1.9% 21-25% 2 1.2% Greater Than 25% 2 l.2% Equal Employment Pressure.--0ne of the external factors that was expected to influence manpower planning in police agencies was equal employment Opportunity pressure. A survey question asked 212 respondents to indicate the extent to which their agencies were under pressure to increase employment of women and/or minorities, with response Options from no pressure to very strong pressure. The responses to the equal employment question are presented in Table 4.7. Almost 90% of the respondents indicated at least moderate pressure facing their agencies to increase employment of women and/or minorities, and over one-half indicated at least strong pressure. TABLE 4.7.--Equal Employment Opportunity Pressure on Police Agencies to Increase Employment Of Women and/or Minorities (N=l63 City, County, and State Police Agencies, with Missing Date for One Agency). Reported Equal Employment N % Opportunity NO Pressure 6 3.7% Weak Pressure 11 6.7% Moderate Pressure 54 33.1% Strong Pressure 44 27.0% Very Strong Pressure 48 29.4% This survey finding that most police agencies are faced with at least some equal employment Opportunity pressure, and that a majority of departments are confronted with strong or very strong pressure, is consistent with information collected during interviews. The majority of police agencies visisted were Operating under either 213 court orders, consent decrees, or serious affirmative action plans that required increases in the employment of women and/or minorities. The plan agreed to by one department went so far as to establish hiring quotas fOr Blacks, Orientals, Spanish—surnames, Indians, and females. In another state, several police agencies reported intense competition for qualified minority applicants; these agencies were consequently below their authorized personnel strengths, because Of the inability to Obtain sufficient numbers Of minority employees to satisfy quota requirements. Several police departments also reported that their equal employment Opportunity efforts had generated reverse discrimination suits, some of which had been upheld in the courts. Union Constraint.--Another external factor believed to affect manpower planning in police organizations was union constraint on personnel processes and decisions. Respondents were asked in the survey to indicate the extent to which six personnel matters were affected by formal agreements and/or contracts with employee associa- tions or unions. The personnel matters listed were initial selec- tion process, promotion process, assignments/transfers, allocations to units or shifts, disciplinary process, and changes in working conditions. The reSponses to the question are summarized in Table 4.8. The most frequently constrained personnel matters in police agencies appear to be the disciplinary process and changes in work- ing conditions, while the least affected by unions is the initial selection process. 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A number of the agencies also indicated that the increasing numbers of college educated people in the labor market were reflected in their applicant pools, especially in these times of relatively limited employment Opportunities. Few agencies, however, seemed actually to have recognized that there were kinds of peOple determinations to make. Instead, they relied on untested tradition, assumptions, and conventional wisdom, except as outside pressures mandated special considerations. Summary of Measures.--In Table 4.19, descriptive statistics are presented for the seven factors reciprocally related to extent of manpower planning in police organizations. Each of the factors is in the form of a composite variable, and they are presented in the form in which they are used in the remainder of the analysis. Reliability coefficients, as measured by Cronbach's Alpha, are also presented in Table 4.19 for each of the composite variables. (It should be noted that all of the variables except external political considerations and kinds of people consist of only two items each. For these variables, alpha is equivalent to the Spearman-Brown splithalf coefficient.) Although the reliability coefficients are not exceedingly large, they are all at least .50, and would generally seem to be large enough to justify the composite variable procedure utilized in the study. 1242 Auceuweee_ xce>ue e» moceaeeeE~ ez we". me. _e_ e - _ e.o N.~ m.~ .eweewee> eewmeeseuv e_eeee we meewx eee meeweeeeewmeee peewuwpee weegeuxu Aueeuceesu xem>u¢ e» oueeueeee_ ez wOuw we. we— e - _ m.e N.m w.m .e—eewee> ouwmeeseuv e—eeee we meewx eee mcewuegeewmeeu peeewuea peggeuxu Aueeugeeew >ge>u¢ ea eeeeucees_ ez wOuw Ne. pep e - _ w.o e.m m.m .eweewge> euwmeeeeuv e—eeee we meewx eee meewueseewmeeu peeewuem weeeeuew Amueeueeeeu meegumum e» eueeugeesw Nu. mew m l o m.w —.m w.~ ezuo .epeewge> euwmeeseev meewuwmee we memesez eee mgeueem peuwuwpee Aeueeueeesw meeeumum ea eeeeueeeew mm. we. m l e e.w o.m o.m ezuo .e—eewge> euwmeeseuv meewuwmee we memesez eee meeuuew peeewuez em. mm_ m - w m.o m.m m.m Anew» < Le>oum e» ww< u< oz". .e_eewte> eeweeeEeee eeweeewewee< Aegean—we_ we em. mm_ c - m._ e.o ~.m m.m wees uemeo euwmeeseuv mucus—wen esew< emcem eeewewwweee z eeeeemem eeweew>ee ee_ eeez eeeeeee Auzwnaw pm”. pczuu< “Em—econ; .Aeeee eewee_= ee eee mmee> zv mewueem< mew—em cw mewecewe Lozenges we ueepxm ea vane—ea awweuegewuem mgeuuew Lew muwumwueum wheesem e>wueweumeonu.m_.¢ m4m geezesem eeeee < ew zv eeeeez ee>ewwem eweeee we mecwx ecu cweumm ece .Aeueo mcwmmwz op men mewge> weeeee< ee wewwwe< aeeee< eew_ee--.em.e mem epwmeeEeuv we. vow euw m.o e.m e.m eweuem ece ueewuu< ew awwwwe< weeee< ezew< emcem ueewewwweeu z emceemem :mthwmwQ eeweez :eez xewwweewwem .eeee< e e m .emeeez ee>ewwem eweeee we meewx mew eweeem eee weewee< ew aewwwe< weeee< eew mewwmwwewm weeesem eeweeweeeee--._m.e meeew 246 planning measures and the factors affecting extent of manpower plan- ning in police agencies. In the third subsection, the relationships between activity and data collection and the factors reciprocally related to manpower planning are explored. Finally, the relation- ships between the various factors and agency ability to attract and retain needed kinds of peOple are reviewed. Intercorrelations Between Manpower Planning Measures In Table 4.22 intercorrelations between the ten component measures of manpower planning activity in police organizations are presented. The statistic used to measure association between variables is Kendall's tau, which is a rank-order correlational test. As the component manpower planning activities could take on one of only three possible values, a large number of tied ranks occur, for which the Kendall's tau statistic is recommended. 0f the 45 non-redundant correlations shown in Table 4.22, 37 are statistically significant at the .05 level using a one- tailed test. All of the coefficients are positive, indicating generally that agencies undertaking one activity tend also to undertake the other activities. The findings of positive associa- tion between the activities and frequency of statistical signifi- cance in the bivariate relationships provides support for the ordinality of the measures and fOr the reliability of the composite variable created by combining the component measures. The average bivariate rank-order intercorrelaticn for the manpower planning 247 eewwep1eee e mcwm: we>ew mo. we» we .ummu peeewwwcmwm wwweewumwuepm ewe mueewewwweeu eecwwweees ”euez Ae mo. w. No. meceegewwee Nmm. mad szv agepee>=w wezeeeez .mmq Aemv eewweeweee eeweeeeem weee ewmeeee< eee zv xpw>wue< aewceewe eezeeeez we mewwemeeeu eew cemzpem mcewuewmgeeo new m.wweeeex11.-.e memep mo. wee we aceuwwwcmwm appeuwumwueum wee muemwewwweeu eeewweeeez ”meez Aumv meeeww mm. mm. mm. em. mm. em. co. Np. mo. ow. op. No. uwseeeem eee weweem .11 I. 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Using multiple regression analysis, the combined effects of the eight factors affecting extent of manpower planning are explored first. Next, the effects of the seven reciprocal factors are examined using partial correlation analysis. Finally, the eight factors affecting manpower planning (agency size, economic condi- tions, etc.) and the reported extent of manpower planning activity are used together as independent variables in a multiple regression analysis, with agency ability to attract and retain needed kinds of people as the dependent variable. These three multivariate analyses follow directly from Figure 3.1, which is reproduced here as Figure 4.1 for convenience. Factors Affecting Extent of Manpower Planning Two multiple regression analyses using the factors affecting extent of manpower planning as independent variables are presented in Table 4.39. For one analysis the dependent variable is the com- posite measure of reported manpower planning data collection, and for the other the dependent variable is the composite measure of reported manpower planning activity undertaken. For both analyses city agency and county agency dummy variables are used to represent the agency level variable. The overall relationships between the set of factors affect- ing extent of manpower planning and the two dependent variables are both statistically significant at the .05 level, with about the same strength Of association in each case. Although statistically 291 TABLE 4.39.--Multiple Regression Analysis of Factors Affecting Extent of Manpower Planning Data Collection and Activity in Police Agencies (N=12l City, County, and State Police Agencies). Standardized Regression Coefficients Factors With Extent of With Extent of Data Collection Activity Dependent Dependent Agency Size .09 .03 Economic Conditions .14 .03 Agency Size Change .13 igz_ Equal Employment Pressure -.02 -;l§_ Union Constraint -igg_ -.06 Civil Service Control -.02 .04 Competition for Applicants .16 L21 City Agency Dummy Variable .02 -.12 County Agency Dummy Variable -.08 -.07 Multiple R .37 .40 R2 .14 .16 Adjusted R2 .07 .09 F 1.94 2.30 Significance .05 .02 Note: Underlined coefficients are statistically significant at the .05 level. 292 significant, the coefficients of determination (R2 values) are not very large (.14 and .16), indicating that the factors affecting extent of manpower planning in police agencies do not account for or explain a great deal of the variance of the dependent composite measures Of manpower planning data collection and activity in police organizations. With the extent of manpower planning data collection as the dependent variable, the only statistically significant regression coefficient is that for union constraint. The coefficient is negative, indicating that with all Of the other factors statisti- cally controlled, more union constraint on personnel matters is associated with less manpower planning data collection. The three next largest coefficients, for competition, economic conditions, and agency size change, are each positive. Thus, with other fac- tors controlled, more manpower planning data collection tends to be associated with more competition for applicants, better economic conditions, and greater recent changes in numbers of allocated positions in the police agency. These three factors and union constraint also had the largest bivariate correlation coefficients with extent of manpower planning data collection, and controlling for other factors did not appreciably change the size Of their coefficients. The coefficients for the other five independent variables with extent of manpower planning data collection as the dependent variable were all less than .10. The agency size coefficient was .09, which was an increase from its simple correlation of .03 with 293 extent of data collection. This indicates that with other factors controlled, larger police agencies collect somewhat more manpower planning data than do smaller agencies. The regression coefficient for equal employment pressure was -.02, which was different in sign from its zero-order correlation of .04, but both coefficients are negligible. This suggests that there is no direct or clear relationship between degree of pressure to increase employment of minorities and extent of manpower planning data collection in police agencies. Another negligible regression coefficient was that for civil service control. The simple correlation for this variable with extent of data collection had been -.12 and statistically significant, but the regression coefficient was only -.02. It would seem that although police agencies faced with more civil service control over their personnel processes tend to collect less manpower planning data, other factors (such as union constraint) account for more of the variance in data collection when all Of the factors are considered simultaneously. The regression coefficients for the city and county agency dummy variables are both rather smaller, as would have been expected from the bivariate relationship between agency level and extent of manpower planning data collection. NO coefficient is shown for state police agencies, as the use of dummy variables is always limited to one less than the number of values of the nominal variable. In an analysis such as that shown in Table 4.39, the effect of state agencies (the excluded value Of agency level) is subsumed within the regression constant. In order to explore the 294 effects Of all three agency levels, separate regressions were computed using the other two possible pairs of dummy variables (county and state, city and state). The three pairs of agency level coefficients with extent of manpower planning data collection dependent are as follows: City Agencies .02 .11 County Agencies -.08 -.09 State Agencies -.02 .08 From these coefficients it seems clear that, with other factors statistically controlled, city agencies tend to collect slightly more manpower planning data, county agencies slightly less, and that state police agencies fall somewhere in between. The regression coefficients with extent of manpower planning activity undertaken as the dependent variable are shown in the right-hand column of Table 4.39. The coefficients for agency size change, competition for applicants, and equal employment pressure are statistically significant with the activity measure dependent. The coefficients for agency size change and competition are positive, indicating that with other factors controlled police agencies experiencing greater recent changes in numbers of positions and agencies facing more competition for qualified applicants report undertaking more manpower planning activity. The equal employment pressure coefficient is negative, indicating that police agencies facing more pressure to increase their employment of women and rhinorities tend to undertake less manpower planning activity. The 295 magnitudes of all three of these coefficients are larger than were their simple correlation coefficients. The bivariate correlation coefficients for economic condi- tions, union constraint, and civil service control with extent of manpower planning activity were each statistically significant, but the regression coefficients for these factors are considerably smaller. The directions of association for economic conditions and union constraint do not change in the regression analysis, but the zero-order negative coefficient for civil service control becomes positive, though weak, in the multivariate situation. With all of the factors uSed together, it is apparent that these three factors decrease in importance with respect to manpower planning activity, while agency size change, competition for applicants, and equal employment pressure increase in importance. Agency size is unimportant in both contexts. The city agency and county agency dummy variables both have negative regression coefficients in the analysis presented in Table 4.39. As noted in the data collection analysis, all three agency level values cannot be tested in the same regression computa- tion using dummy variables. Again, each pair of agency dummy variables was tested separately with the other seven factors, in order to clarify the effect of agency level on extent of manpower planning activity undertaken in police agencies. The three pairs of agency level coefficients were found to be as follows: 296 City Agencies -.12 -.04 County Agencies -.08 .03 State Agencies .10 .07 These coefficients seem to indicate that with other factors statistically controlled, state police agencies undertake somewhat more manpower planning activity, and city agencies somewhat less, with county agencies in the middle somewhere. Another method of exploring the effects of the agency level variable is to perform separate multiple regression analyses for each of the types of agencies, so that agency level is not a variable in the analysis but rather the criterion used to select cases. Using this approach, the effects of the other factors on extent of manpower planning data collection and activity can be examined for each of the three sets of agencies separately. Multiple regression analyses for factors affecting extent of manpower planning data collection for the three agency levels are summarized in Table 4.40. Only for the state police agencies is the relationship between the factors and extent of data collec- tion statistically significant, and for these agencies the relation- ship is quite strong. For city and county agencies the factors account for a relatively small portion of the variance in extent of data collection, and in neither case is statistical significance even approached. Across the three agency types, the strongest and most con- sistent factor is union constraint. The coefficient for this 297 TABLE 4.40.--Multiple Regression Analysis of Factors Affecting Extent of Manpower Planning Data Collection: Separate RegressiOns for City, County, and State Police Agencies. Standardized Regression Coefficients Factors For City For County For State A encies Agencies Agencies 1N=70) (N=25) (N=26) Agency Size .06 .oo .36 Economic Conditions .13 .06 .06 Agency Size Change .16 -.O7 .31 Equal Employment Pressure -.04 .13 -.14 Union Constraint -.13 -.23 -.38 Civil Service Control .Ol -.19 .02 Competition for Applicants .06 .04 .25 Multiple R .30 .36 .73 R2 .09 .13 .54 Adjusted R2 .00 .OO .36 F O 86 0.36 3 13 Significance .54 .91 .02 Note: Underlined coefficients are statistically significant at the .05 level. 298 factor is uniformly negative, and especially large for county and state agencies. Other factors that are consistent in terms of direction Of relationship for each agency level are competition for applicants, economic conditions, and agency size. The coeffi- cients of these factors are positive for all agency levels, with agency size and competition being particularly important for state police agencies, and economic conditions having its largest coefficient for city agencies. The coefficients for the civil service control, equal employment pressure, and agency size change factors are inconsistent with respect to direction of association across the agency levels. In each case, the coefficients are similarly signed for city and state agencies, but signed in the opposite manner for county police agencies. Agency size change and civil service control are negatively related to extent of data collection in county agencies. Equal employment pressure is positively associated with extent of data collection in county agencies, but negatively associated with data collection in city and state police organizations. Focusing on agency types rather than factors, for city police agencies the most important factors seem to be agency size change, economic conditions, and union constraint. The coefficients for all of the other factors are very small. For city agencies, better economic conditions and greater recent changes in numbers of allocated positions tend to be associated with more manpower plan- ning data collection, while greater union constraint on personnel matters is associated with less data collection. 299 The most important factors for county police departments are union constraint, civil service control, and equal employment pressure. The coefficients for the first two Of these factors are negative, indicating that for county agencies more union con- straint and civil service control over personnel matters and processes tends to be associated with less manpower planning data collection. The coefficient for equal employment pressure is positive, indicating that more pressure to increase employment of women and minorities is associated with more manpower planning data collection in county police agencies. Three of the factors have strong positive coefficients with extent of data collection in state police agencies. These factors are agency size, agency size change, and competition for applicants. Thus, larger state police agencies, those with greater recent changes in numbers of positions, and those facing more competition for qualified applicants tend to collect more manpower planning data. In addition, for state agencies the equal employment pressure and union constraint factors were negatively signed, with union constraint especially strongly related to extent of data collection. These coefficients indicate that state police agencies facing more union constraint on their personnel matters and more pressure to increase employment of women and minorities tend to report less manpower planning data collection. A similar set of three multiple regression analyses is presented in Table 4.41, with extent of manpower planning activity 300 TABLE 4.4l.--Multiple Regression Analysis of Factors Affecting Extent of Manpower Planning Activity: Separate Regressions for City, County, and State Police Agencies. Standardized Regression Coefficients Factors For City For County For State Agencies Agencies Agencies (N=70) (N=25) (N=26) Agency Size -.03 .15 .40 Economic Conditions .07 -.10 .04 Agency Size Change _;:L .28 .26 Equal Employment Pressure -;28_ -.O9 -.32 Union Constraint -.02 -.15 -.39 Civil Service Control .14 -.14 .02 Competition for Applicants .16 .48 -.12 Multiple R .44 .57 .59 R2 .19 .33 .35 Adjusted R2 .10 .05 .10 F 2.09 1.18 1.40 Significance .06 .36 .26 Note: Underlined coefficients are statistically significance at the .05 level. 301 undertaken as the dependent variable. Although none of the overall relationships is statistically significant, the coefficients of determination are reasonably large. For each of the types of agencies, the factors account for a fairly large portion of the variation in manpower planning activity, but the small sample sizes and large standard errors reduce the confidence that can be placed in the estimates. Two of the factors, equal employment pressure and union constraint, have negative coefficients for all three agency levels, and the agency size change factor is positive for each level. The coefficients for the agency size change factor are particularly consistent, providing strong evidence that police agencies experienc- ing greater changes in numbers of personnel tend to undertake more manpower planning activity. The coefficients for both equal employ- ment pressure and union constraint are largest for state police agencies, while union constraint is a negligible factor for city agencies. and the equal employment pressure coefficient is smallest for county agencies. The competition for applicants and agency size factors are each especially important for one class of agencies, and much less important for the others. The competition for applicants factor is strongly and positively related to extent of manpower planning activity in county agencies, while agency size is strongly and positively related to activity in state police agencies. Neither the civil service control nor the economic conditions factor is 302 consistently or very strongly associated with extent of manpower planning activity for any of the police agency levels. Examining Table 4.41 vertically rather than horizontally, the two factors clearly most important for extent of manpower plan- ning activity in city police agencies are agency size change and equal employment pressure. City agencies experiencing greater size changes tend to undertake more manpower planning activity, while those facing more equal employment opportunity/affirmative action pressure undertake less such activity. More civil service control over personnel matters and more competition for applicants tend to be associated with more manpower planning activity in city police agencies, but the coefficients for these two factors are not nearly as large as those for union constraint and equal employment pressure. For county police agencies, the two factors most strongly related to extent of manpower planning activity are competition for applicants and agency size change, with the coefficients of each positive. Thus, county agencies facing more competition for qualified applicants and experiencing greater recent size changes tend to undertake more manpower planning activity. Larger county agencies are also somewhat more likely to undertake manpower plan- ning activity, while those facing more union constraint and civil service control over personnel matters tend to undertake less such activity. The coefficients for four of the factors are relatively large for state police agencies; those for agency size and agency 303 size change are positive, while the coefficients for equal employ- ment pressure and union constraint are negative. Thus, larger state agencies and those with greater recent changes in numbers of positions were more likely to report undertaking more manpower planning activity, while those faced with more equal employment pressure and union constraint undertook less activity. There was also some tendency for state police agencies faced with more competition for qualified applicants to undertake less manpower planning activity. When the separate agency level analyses presented in Tables 4.40 and 4.41 are examined together, several consistent relation- ships for both manpower planning data collection and activity can be seen. For example, the coefficient for agency size for state police agencies is large and positive with both dependent variables. This is an indication that, although agency size does not seem to be an important factor for the entire sample Of police organizations, for state police agencies it is a very important factor.“ Larger state police agencies apparently tend to collect more manpower plan- ning data and undertake more activity than do smaller state police agencies, with the other factors statistically controlled. Another consistent pattern for the two manpower planning dependent variables involves the moderately strong and negative coefficients for both union constraint and civil service control for county police agencies. One or the other of these coefficients tends to be negligible for the other two agency levels with each dependent variable, but not so for county agencies. It would seem 304 that for county police organizations more external control over personnel matters by unions and by civil service units is associated with less manpower planning data collection and less manpower plan- ning activity. Union constraint over personnel matters seems to be a particularly strong factor for state police agencies. For these agencies, it is strongly and negatively associated with the extent of both data collection and activity pertaining to manpower planning. The coefficients for the union constraint factor are negative for all three agency levels with each dependent measure of manpower planning; in fact, it is the only factor for which all six coeffi- cients in Tables 4.40 and 4.41 have the same sign. Interestingly, the agencies for which union constraint has the strongest negative relationship with extent of manpower planning (the state police) are the ones that reported the least amount of such union constraint on personnel matters. Agency size change and competition for applicants seem to be the most consistent and important positive factors across agency types and across the two dependent measures of manpower planning. The coefficient for the relationship between agency size change and extent of data collection is negative for county agencies, but otherwise positive and relatively strong. Similarly, the relation- ship between competition for applicants and extent of manpower planning activity is negative for state agencies, but otherwise positive and often fairly strong. In general, police agencies experiencing greater changes in numbers of positions and greater 305 competition for qualified applicants tend to undertake more manpower planning effort. Factors Reciprocally Related to Extent of Manpower Planning The multivariate analysis presented in the preceding section pertained to the left-hand side of the model in Figure 4.1. The factors examined were believed to be, on logical and theoretical grounds, related to the extent Of manpower planning in police organizations primarily in a causal fashion. That is, different values of the factors were expected to lead to different values of the dependent measures of extent of manpower planning, rather than vice versa. The factors examined in this section are believed to be more reciprocally related to the extent of manpower planning in police organizations. These factors are all measures of the perceived rationality and predictability of numbers and kinds of people decisions affecting police agencies. The perceptions are expected to influence the extent to which police agencies choose to undertake manpower planning activities, but the reverse order to causation is also expected. In other words, the extent to which police agencies do manpower planning may affect their percep- tions of the rationality and predictability of human resource decision making. The reciprocal factors are shown in the right- hand side of Figure 4.1. Bivariate relationships between the reciprocal factors and the two measures of manpower planning were previously presented in 306 Table 4.34. Kendall's tau correlation coefficients were utilized for that anlaysis, and the patterns of association were found to be as expected, except that the coefficients for the two political factors were very weak and in only one instance negative. A similar bivariate analysis, using the Pearson r coefficient, is presented in the first column of Table 4.42. The Pearson r correla— tion coefficient is used for this analysis so that comparisons can more easily be made with the partial correlation coefficients in the other columns of the table, and with the regression coefficients obtained in the other portions of the multivariate analysis. For the analysis shown in Table 4.42, the extent of manpower planning data collection is used as a factor affecting extent of manpower planning activity, rather than as a separate dependent variable. The relationship between data collection and activity was also expected to be a reciprocal one, with decisions to under- take activities leading to data collection, and with available data leading to decisions to undertake certain activities. Also, certain kinds of manpower planning data collection may be required or seen as desirable in their own right, without any direct connection to the kinds Of manpower planning activities posed in the survey (for example, agencies might collect racial information about applicants, or not collect it, based on their understanding of equal employment/ affirmative action requirements, without any connection to specific manpower planning activities). 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