i , ANALYSIS AND EVALUATION OF THE NATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT PLANS OF THAILAND, 1961-71, FROM A COMPARATIVE REGIONAL-URBAN DEVELOPMENT PERSPECTIVE BY Suraphol Katchamat A DISSERTATION Submitted to Michigan State University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY Department of Urban Planning 1978 ABSTRACT ANALYSIS AND EVALUATION OF THE NATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT PLANS OF THAILAND, 1961-71, FROM A COMPARATIVE REGIONAL-URBAN DEVELOPMENT PERSPECTIVE BY Suraphol Katchamat In many developing nations, there has been a need for a national economic development plan with an explicit goal. However, urban and regional development planning, as a geographic spatial dimension, is often neglected by national planning agencies. Therefore, decisions are made on how much of a scarce resource should be allocated to a given purpose only on the basis of sectoral planning, without a spatial point of view as to where investments should take place. This method of decision making has been increasingly criticized for its irrelevance in an equitable distribution of benefits of economic development. A similar pattern of economic development planning exists in Thailand with its centralized government system. Suraphol Katchamat There is growing evidence that such development planning tends to create imbalanced patterns between the Greater Bangkok Metropolis (GEM) and the other four regions (Northern, Northeastern, Central, and Southern) in terms of developmental investment, structure of economic production, labor productivity, and benefits of economic growth distri- bution. This results in many social, economic, and physi- cal problems, as well as in problems with natural resources and ecosystems. In order to prove this hypothesis regarding spatial distribution of economic development in Thailand, this dissertation focuses on comparative measurements and evalua- tion of the past two national economic development plans of the periods 1961-66 and 1967-71, with provided integrated development components. A simple procedure for measurement and analysis is applied with the aid of some essential quan- titative data as well as with qualitative information. The results of measurement and analysis show that the failure of economic develOpment in Thailand is due to its highly centralized government system and to the lack of integration of regional urban development into national economic development planning. These tend to support the stated hypothesis. Recommendations for integrated national economic and regional urban development strategies and for a de- centralized government system are offered for correcting Suraphol Katchamat inequalities of economic development distribution and other related problems. These recommendations would lead to efficient economic development planning in Thailand at all levels of government, improving regional urban eco- nomies and bringing about equity of economic growth and income distribution throughout the country. To my parents, brothers, and sisters ii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS For assistance in preparing this dissertation, I am indebted to many people and institutions. I wish to ex- press my sincere gratitude to Professor Sanford Farness, my dissertation advisor, for his invaluable advice, en- couragement, and kindness; and to my dissertation committee, Professor Milton H. Steinmueller, Professor Christopher E. Sower, and Professor Myles G. Boylan, for their comments, suggestions, and encouragement. I am very grateful to Mr. Charan Burapharat, the Director of the Economic Infrastructure Division, the National Economic Development Board, Thailand, who gave of his time and special knowledge in providing me with the required data and useful information as well as for his generosity and encouragement in many parts of my study and my life. Particular appreciation is also extended to the staff of the Economic Infrastructure Division and the Nation- al Economic Development Board, as well as to the Director of the National Statistical Office of Thailand, for their ex- tensive c00peration in providing various useful data and information. I wish to take this Opportunity to extend my deep gratitude to Professor Wesley R. Fishel for his generous iii council, encouragement, and understanding of my difficult time at the beginning of this study; and to Professor Charles W. Barr and Professor Carl Goldschmidt for their assistance, guidance, and encouragement during my stay at Michigan State University. Special gratitude is given to my parents, whose support, patience, and encouragement sustained me through many years of undergraduate and graduate studies; and also to my brothers and sisters for their moral support and encouragement of my study during my stay at home and abroad. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . LIST OF FIGURES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . CHAPTER I. INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . Historical Development and General Characteristics of Thailand . . . Emerging Problems . . . . . . . . . Statement of Hypothesis . . . . . . Need for the Study . . . . . . . . Purpose of the Study . . . . Scope and Limitations of the Study Procedure of the Study . . . . . Organization for the Study . . . . II. CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK FOR EVALUATION OF THE NATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT PLAN Theory of Economic Development Planning Dimensions of Economic Development Planning . . . . . . . . . . . Evolution of Economic Development Thought . . . . . . . . . . . . Factors Influencing Economic Development . . . . . . . . . . Economic Development Planning Organization and Procedure . . Theory for Evaluation of the Thai Economic DevelOpment Plans. . . . General Procedure . . . . . . . . Summary and Conclusion . . . . . . Page ix xii 12 l3 14 16 17 18 24 27 27 29 31 37 45 50 52 60 III. IV. Page PERFORMANCE OF THE FIRST AND SECOND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT PLANS OF THAILAND . . 64 Historical Evolution of Thai Economic Development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64 Economic Development During the Period 1961-71 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69 Economic Development Planning ' Organization and Procedure . . . . . . 69 Underlying Philosophy of the Economic Development Plans . . . . . . . . . . . 77 Results of the Economic Development Plans . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85 Summary and Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . 122 CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK FOR NATIONAL PLANNING FOR URBAN AND REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT . . . . 129 Nature of Development Strategies in the Planning Process . . . . . . . . . . 131 Theory of Urbanized Regions in National Economic Development . . . . . . . . . . 135 Theory of Components and Procedures for Integrated Development Planning . . . 138 Natural Resources and Ecosystems . . . . 139 Pattern of Urbanization . . . . . . . . . 140 Internal Migration Pattern . . . . . . . 142 Organizations and Development Planning . 143 Political and Administrative Systems of the Government . . . . . . . . . . . 143 Summary and Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . 144 DESCRIPTION OF COMPONENTS OF INTEGRATED DEVELOPMENT PLANNING IN THAILAND . . . . . 148 Natural Resources and Ecosystems . . . . . 148 Pattern of Urbanization . . . . . . . . . . 157 Internal Migration Pattern . . . . . . . . 172 Interregional Migration . . . . . . . . . 176 Intraregional Migration . . . . . . . . . 180 Migration to and from the GBM . . . . . . 180 Development Planning and Agencies . . . . . 187 Government System . . . . . . . . . . . 189 Central Government . . . . . . . . . . . 190 Provincial Government . . . . . . . . . . 194 Local Self-Government . . . . . 195 Summary and Conclusions . . . . . 198 vi Page VI. PROBLEMS, TRENDS, AND POTENTIALS IN THE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF THAILAND . . . . 203 Problems in Economic Development . . . . 203 Highly Centralized Government System . 204 Deficiencies in Development Planning Organization and Procedure . . . . . 208 Economic Inefficiency and Imbalance . . 215 Deterioration of Natural Resources and Ecosystems . . . . . . . . . . . 217 Inadequate and Deteriorated Physical Facilities . . . . . . . . . . . . . 219 Social Dilemmas . . . . . . . . . . . 223 Trends and Potentials in the Deve10pment of the Economy . . . . . . . . . . . . 226 Summary and Conclusion . . . . . . . . . 228 VII. RECOMMENDATIONS FOR INTEGRATED NATIONAL ECONOMIC AND REGIONAL URBAN DEVELOPMENT PLANNING . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 233 Structure of Regional Urban Growth Centers in Thailand . . . . . . . . . . 233 Improvement of Economic Deve10pment Planning Organization and Procedure . . 238 Coordination of Sectoral Planning with Urban and Regional Planning . . 238 Coordination of Planning and Implementation at Various Levels of Government . . . . . . . . . . . 239 Linkage of Plan Formulation and Implementation . . . . . . . . . . . 254 Decentralization of the Government System . . . . . . . . . . 257 A Wider-Based Political System . . . . 258 Integrated Administrative System . . . 260 Summary and Conclusion . . . . . . . . . 263 VIII. SUMMARY, CONCLUSIONS, AND SUGGESTIONS FOR FURTHER STUDIES . . . . . . . . . . . 264 Summary of Evaluation of Economic Development in Thailand . . . . . . . . 264 Major Findings . . . . . . . . . . . . 265 Summary of Integrated Development Planning for Thailand . . . . . . . . . 269 Major Findings . . . . . . . . . . . . 271 vii Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Summary of Recommendations . . . . . . Structure of Regional Urban Growth Centers in Thailand . . . . . . . . Improvement of Economic Development Planning Organization and Procedure Decentralization of the Government System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Suggestions for Further Studies . . . . APPENDICES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . A. Gross Fixed Capital Formation(GFCF) Data B. Municipal Revenue and Expenditure Data . C. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Data . . . . D. Urban and Rural Population Data . . . . . E. Labor Force Data . . . . . . . . . . . . BIBLIOGRAPHY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . viii Page 273 275 276 277 281 282 284 284 286 287 293 295 296 TABLE 3.1 3.2 3.7 3.8 3.9 3.11 3.12 3.13 LIST OF TABLES Page Annual Average Growth Rates of Output (GDP) and Targets, at 1962 Prices, by Industrial Sectors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82 Percentage Distribution of Public Capital Investments at 1962 Prices . . . . . . . . . 84 Percentage Distribution of Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) in GDP, at 1962 Prices, by Regions . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87 Percentage Distribution of GFCF at 1962 Prices by Industrial Sectors and Regions . . 89 Percentage Distribution of GDP at 1962 Prices by Industrial Sectors . . . . . . . . 91 GFCF per Capita per Annum at 1962 Prices by Regions 0 O O O I O O O O O O I O O O O O 97 Percentage Distribution of Municipal Revenues and Expenditures by Regions . . . . 99 Municipal Revenue and Expenditure per Capita per Annum by Regions . . . . . . . . 100 Annual Average Growth Rates of GDP at 1962 Prices by Regions . . . . . . . . . . . 103 Percentage Distribution of GDP at 1962 Prices by Regions . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104 GDP per Capita per Annum at 1962 Prices by Regions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106 Money and Nonmoney Income per Capita per Annum by Regions at 1962 Prices . . . . . . 107 Money and Nonmoney Income per Family per Annum by Regions at 1962 Prices . . . . . . 109 ix TABLE 3.14 3.15 3.20 3.21 Percentage Distribution of Families by Income Classes and by Regions, 1963 . Percentage Distribution of Families by Income Classes and by Regions, 1968 . . Percentage Distribution of Families by Income Classes and by Regions, 1971 . . Percentage Distribution of Labor Force by Regions I O O I O O O O O O O O O O 0 Labor Productivity (GDP per Worker) at 1962 Prices by Regions . . . . . . . . . Percentage Distribution of Economic Production by Industrial Sectors and Regions 0 O O O I O O O O O O I O O O 0 Percentage Distribution of Economic Production by Industrial Sectors and Regions 0 O O O I O O I O O O O O O O 0 Percentage Distribution of Economic Production by Industrial Sectors and Regions 0 O O O O O O O O I I O I O O 0 Percentage Distribution of Urban and Rural Population and Percentage Changes in Intercensal Periods by Regions . . . Percentage Distributions of Urban Area and Urban Populations, by Size of Area . Thirteen Largest Urban Places in Thailand, 1960 and 1970 . . . . . . . . Volume and Percentage Distribution of Interregional and Intraregional Migration and of Intraregional Inmigration (Inter- regional and Intraregional Migration) by Regions 0 O O O O O O O O O O O O O O 0 Volume and Percentage of Distribution of Interregional Migration, 1956-60, by Regions 0 O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O Page 110 111 112 115 117 118 119 120 158 159 161 175 177 TABLE 5.6 5.8 5.9 Volume and Percentage of Distribution of Interregional Migration, 1966-70, by Regions 0 O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O 0 Net Exchange of Interregional Migration by Regions 0 O O O O O O O O O O O O O 0 Volume and Percentage Distribution and Net Exchange of Five-Year Migrants, to and from the GBM, by Regions . . . . . Crude Birth Rate, Crude Death Rate, and Natural Increase Rate by Regions, 1964-65 Distribution of Public Capital Investments, at 1962 Prices, by Industrial Sectors . . Distribution of GFCF, at 1962 Prices, by Sectors and Regions . . . . . . . . . . . Distribution of Municipal Revenues and Expenditures, by Regions . . . . . . . . . Distribution of GDP, at 1962 Prices, by Industrial Sectors . . . . . . . . . . . . Distribution of GDP, at 1962 Prices, by Industrial Sectors of the GBM . . . . . . Distribution of GDP, at 1962 Prices, by Industrial Sectors of the Northern Region Distribution of GDP, at 1962 Prices, by Industrial Sectors of the Northeastern Region 0 I O O O O O O O O I O O O O O O 0 Distribution of GDP, at 1962 Prices, by Industrial Sectors of the Central Region . Distribution of GDP, at 1962 Prices, by Industrial Sectors of the Southern Region Urban and Rural Population Distribution by Regions 0 O O O O O O O O O O O C O O 0 Percentage Distribution of Urban and Rural Population by Regions . . . . . . . . . . Distribution of Labor Force by Regions . . xi Page 178 179 182 186 284 285 286 287 288 289 290 291 292 293 294 295 FIGURE 1.1 LIST OF FIGURES Position of Thailand in Southeast Asia . . Provinces and Statistical Regions . . . . Landforms and Drainage in Thailand . . . . Population Density and Distribution Of Thailand 0 O O I O O I O O O O O O O 0 Transportation Routes, Ports and Major Airports in Thailand . . . . . . . . . . . Land Use and Irrigation of Thailand . . . Integration of Regional Urban Development into National Development Strategies and the Planning Process . . . . . . . . . . . Soil Types of Thailand . . . . . . . . . . Mineral Resources of Thailand . . . . . . Economic Resources of Thailand . . . . . . Urbanization of Thailand . . . . . . . . . Present Government Structure and Agencies for Development Planning . . . . . . . . . Proposed Government Structure and Organization for Coordination of Planning and Implementation . . . . . . . . . . . . xii Page 10 134 149 152 156 163 191 241 CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION Historical Deve10pment and General Characteristics of Thailand The historical deve10pment of Thailand is charac- terized by independence as well as by frequent migration and warfare since 650 A.D. It has also been a story of borrowing civilizations from its neighbors and from European countries and integrating them into its own system. Contemporary Thailand lies between the parallels 5° and 21° N latitude and between the meridians of 97° and 106° E longitude. It has a total area of about 200,000 square miles. The country is bounded on the north by upper Burma and northern Laos; on the east and north- east by central and lower Laos and by Cambodia; on the west by central and lower Burma; and the extreme south by Malaysia. Its long coast lines are flanked on the south- east and eastern peninsula by the Gulf of Thailand, and on the western side of the peninsula by the Andaman Sea (see Figure 1.1). The geographic characteristics are represented by regionally varied landscapes with forested mountains, with 1 ' w h v. V ’. 1' \W O Q (3?) (“via 3» v ,. ., b i \ , ‘xrfg‘gonawehon Km. 1 , 1 ‘s V: E“ v7 .1 a -.S'4 ' .'."" [ kg ‘1 CAMBODIA ’é» a n...” x > R? . ‘hw~fljw “ x a" w h\"r\\u , / 1.. ' 92‘ J‘" '5°vo°-/ z ‘37:); 7.7 T v j (.39, > 5 Figure l.l--Position of Thailand in Southeast Asia Source: G. L. Harris, Area Handbook for Thailand (Washington, D.C.: 0.8. Government Printing Office, 1968), p. xvi. Slot-n. nng /¢‘ [1 4. A 3'” ’- relatively dry plateaus, and with fertile river plains. The climate is monsoonal with a pronounced rainy season from May to the end of September and a dry season for the rest of the year. However, there is a considerable local variation in the amount and seasonal pattern of rainfall. It is coolest in December and January and hottest in April. The daily range of temperatures may also be relatively varied among local areas within the country. Thailand is administratively divided into 71 provinces, and these provinces are grouped into four regions: the Northern, Northeastern, Southern, and Central regions. The capital of Thailand, the Greater Bangkok Metropolis (GBM or Bangkok and Thon-Buri Municipalities)/*is located in the Central region near the Gulf of Thailand. These regions are, however, distinctively characterized by natural features and ecosystems (see Figures 1.2 and 1.3). The Northern region contains 16 provinces and covers about 65,900 square miles. The Northeastern region is composed of 15 provinces. It is the largest region, with approximately 66,000 square miles. The Southern region is the smallest geographic area of the country, with only 29,000 square miles. It is comprised of 14 provinces. Finally, the Central region has an area of about 39,100 square miles, but it contains 26 provinces. *Hereafter the Greater Bangkok Metropolis will be re- ferred to as the GBM. NORTHERN REGION Chnang Rai Kamphung PM! Lampana lamphun Mae Hong Son Nakhon Sawan an Phetchabun 10 PhlchII 11 Phnlsanulok f‘v / 9 ‘ . M ~ - / fl 3./ ‘\ 1 Phrae ‘ f! 13 Suhhothau . Tah 15 Uthan Thani 16 Ultaradn NORTHEASTERN REGION Bun Ram Chaiyaphum Kalasm Khon Kaen . Loo: 14 I Maha Sarakham ' Nahhon Phanom ? Nakhon RatchaSIma ‘ Nong Khan 1 13 12 / 10 no. it J 1; SaganKNakhon _ _ ~__,- — 1 I a «I / M A ‘r 13 Sunn 14 Ubon Ratchathani 15 Udon Thani CENTRAL REGION 1 tha Nakhon 5 ‘ . 2 {5 I a '2 3 fi/' 1) g ‘1 .\l\ 16 \\' . C I onuou‘una 0 4 Ph'a Nakhon Si Ayutlhaya 5 Chachoenguo 6 Chan Na! 7 Chamhaburi 8 Chon Buri 9 Kanchanaburi 10 Lap Bun 11 Nathan Nayok 12 Nathan Fathom 13 Nonthabun 14 Pathum Them 15 Pha1chaburi 16 Puchin Buvi N 17 Pnchuap Khm Khan 18 Rauhabuvi 19 Rayong 20 SamuI PrnIun 21 Samut Sakhon 72 Samut Songhhrnm 23 Sarabuvi 24 Sing Buri 25 Suphan Buri a1 SOUTHERN REGION ‘00 1 Chumphon 2 Krabi Mic/menus 3 Nukhon Si Thammam 4 Narathiwn 5 Panani 6 Phangnga 7 thhnlung B Phuke! 9 Ranong 10 Satun 11 Songkhla 12 Sum Thnm’ ( 13 Tune umgupm so 5 AN u ‘J 14 Yal- Figure l.2--Provinces and Statistical Regions Source: E. C. Chapman, Studies of Contemporarerhailand (Canberra: Australian National University Press, 1973), p. 10. Source: NORTH .. 2 lug ’- <1- -. VIETNAM \g! x 3113 L A o s 'w. *):< f a \ ‘~< ‘1 ‘Ks \ 0’ ‘ ' f ’5 $5: . n 4‘" c 0.3 o . a; fi O . 1‘ f I R‘ ifi‘fiylfl“ 5‘ if (I? Khoufl'; ° 1. £2.46“ ”013395;? 1 ' . ‘ J M D‘JNGRN‘ . W '> “'.J?' ‘25 CA u so OIA NVN'ONV Chon Buri . ‘ ‘ 7 g "‘ ROI Bun ' ' g a F-) I» m _.. -. ‘ \ m8. . . .‘~‘. GULF Q \ or . .- sou ' IETNAM . SIAM - , Songkhla ’ ‘ -—~--—- Michal boundary ' o ' -- ' .. o 100 200 .. g; .1 MB MALAY} IA Figure 1.3—-Landforms and Drainage in Thailand G. L. Harris, Area Handbook for Thailand (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office, 1968), p. 21. According to the 1960 census, the population of Thailand was approximately 26,250,000 persons. By 1970, the population increased to 34,152,000 persons. This made an average growth rate of 2.7 percent per annum over the ten-year period. The population was unequally distri- buted in different regions of the country. As indicated by the 1970 census, the Northeastern region constituted the largest proportion of the total pOpulation, with approx- imately 12,025,140 persons compared to only 4,271,674 persons in the Southern region. At the same time, the Northern region had about 7,488,683 pOpulation, almost equal to that of the Central region, 7,635,222 people. The heaviest concentrations of population are found in the valley of the main rivers, especially in the Chao Phraya Valley of the Central region, and in certain sections along the sea coast of the Gulf of Thailand. These areas contain the cultivated land and rich natural resources of the country (see Figure 1.4). Regarding the physical settlement pattern in Thai- land, approximately 85 percent of the country's pOpulation lived in small, long-established hamlets and villages during the period 1960-1970. At the same time, slightly more than 50 percent of the total urban population lived in the GBM; and the remainder lived in small towns scattered throughout the country. In this way, the GBM becomes the center of transportation systems in Thailand. I “ 9 ‘ ‘ov . 1 P) ' ' \NORTH/ I f 'I t '— L V? ,-r- / I // i ,r‘ . ( (VIETNAM r .1 I v ‘. '- . \. l V. .v '\ 1 , \.. H; m. ".‘.:2 ~' . \u “IRMA ‘: , :I , . \.. \ “" ' - SOUTH .VIETNN- L ‘ _ . ' . -'\. 2 ‘\ ”-é;:§..;‘.h . . ., ‘. a filing}; a a 2:. " ' ' “ CAMBODIA . i '4' a b . \ 2 ‘ . \, p F " # 1 Population Denaity ‘6 - ( per aquara mile I ”1 1 . h 1 - More than 120 , ,D: 40 - no ' [:1 Leu than 40 “,1“, " ' Regional boundary 2 . . A Phukot.‘ 1’ Island 0.“ I - O 100 200 p ‘ ' ' .' was 23 MALAYSIA \ / Figure l.4--Popu1ation Density and Distribution of Thailand Source: G. L. Harris, Area Handbook for Thailand Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office, 1968), p. 64. Waterways, ports and airports, railroads, and highways radiate from the GBM, distributing goods and services to and from the entire country as well as the outside world (see Figure 1.5). In view of irrigation and flood control, the total irrigated land was estimated at approximately 6 million acres by the National Economic Development Board (NEDB) in 1971.1 However, the most extensive single irrigated area was in the Central region (see Figure 1.6). In Thailand, the majority of the peOple use the Thai language as the medium of communication; but there are some differences in dialects among regions. There is a considerable number of the hill tribes, Malay, and Chinese who speak various languages of their own. Generally, they are socially and culturally assimilated with the Thai peOple. For many centuries the three main threads of Thai culture have been Buddhism, a hierarchical social struc- ture, and the wet cultivation of rice. Rural society is characterized by the absence of a clear class structure and by a relative lack of complexity or formal institu- tionalization. Wealth, age and sex, education, moral and religious character, and attainments of skill in farming and medicine place peOple into a degree of respect. In urban society, particularly in the GBM, the social environ- ment is completely different from the rest of Thailand. The GBM is an urban center with an increasingly western- ized class-structure society. Wealth, education, political I V‘ I Syphon Iv” -. I’ .F ”7,770/7,971‘1'745 37 . Ij .' ’1 P-v‘ \.- ‘I g, ' "um“ 9913/ a 57-3; 501101“ . a, 5, g“ 1%] ' >49 “2’, EQR \ .V . ‘ .. 0 Ali/ERyopvaIIu-I ‘ .4? afmuffiizfiz. “(pw CAMBODIA '. n J ‘ GUI! or SIAM 2% i 1 a .,-, a“. $55)} I": N .’ 1 . kw" South Chvnpnoa , I do," 9 I" ‘ \ ‘LQI U I, . ._ I , II 1) 1‘4?! E? \ I?" a: f v.»- m. K @5116 3,, ‘”“!© 5%; z lniuhan s; rum"... (‘5; fat Phonong 1’ '/ ‘thnn Song ___ . ,._—-_. ._ —{" . XIV ''''' - lulamononol baundnvy I 3‘ “V o Nevis-m1 ‘flpiIoI I ' . \ «95th . ; H-H lonl-oud (dovhla "on ' 3"” 1". i W III-hood (Iinglo mam I \ ‘1' 1 °"°'{' —— load I mm". '519‘3...’ \\_\ . ‘r Halo! onliald w : .. ‘0; m w: _ ' 2 —'- s ; 0 % Ialon. .J, ¥.- ‘12::\ ,1 ‘ E) MALAYSIA . ° 5° 10° we 1,.“ 1‘ ~\\ ,_ I __ 5', A d SURAIIA 7’, §\\ Slululo Mnln INDONESIA, r}. l X . \\ . \m V I In Figure 1.5--Transportation Routes, Ports and Major Airports in Thai- land Source: NEDB, National Economic Development Plan, 1967-1971 (Bangkok: 1968), p. 130. ,1 .1 _ M t" I a H . . , , n u m. _ x _ . o n a I . u' u I. d _ . 1 0| 0 k n n \ x a I a .I. 9 0 .u. x a x x \ r I.. .I 0 n u. m I , x , \ r. 0. u. . u . I II. r f y l \ x .x I \I _ a | 0 r n H o I I I I‘ll d 0 M n n W . fl 8. m n I n n d a .I. w m o , a I n c .I. m u u 1 I v I a R e d m w u. m. n. m l . v a U M m w m m .n n a C e Mo .K I Ma .- "a a d S K .n no u. m m v 1.. m R h A .m S T L l land 1 Figure 1.6--Land Use and Irrigation of Tha NEDB, National Economic Development Plan, 1967-1971 (Bangkok: Source: 1968), p. 89. 11 power, and family background are generally indicative of social status. All parts of other provincial areas of Thailand stand in various degrees of subordination to the GBMJ According to the 1960 census, the literacy rates of the population 10 years of age and over were 61.8 percent for women and 80.6 percent for men. These comparative figures increased to 70.8 and 88.9 percent for women and men respectively as indicated by the 1970 census. The economy of the country is predominantly agricultural, while industrialization is slowly being realized. However, industrialization appears to be con- centrated in the GBM as the center of commerce, industry, finance, market, transportation, domestic and internation— al trades, and other economic, social, cultural, and poli- tical institutions. In the meantime, the labor force of the country as a whole remains overwhelmingly agricultural. A small nonagricultural work force is characterized by its shortage of many forms of modern skills. Although Thailand is a constitutional monarchy with a democratic parliamentary system of government, the ex- cessivly centralized government system is characterized by the lack of pOpular democracy and by control at all local self-governmental units in decision-making and implementa- tion at the administrative level. The entire government structure is dominated by political elite who are military bureaucrats and police officers, as well as by some 12 powerful politicians. These elite govern either constitu- tionally or nonconstitutionally, in the spirit of arbi- trary power, and they expect to enjoy the fruits of power. Emerging Problems Thailand has struggled for survival in the contem- porary world throughout its long history. The country's cultural, social, political, and economic systems have been affected by internal and external environments, and these have caused changes in Thai society. However, there have been many problems and dilemmas in these changes. In inter- national politics, Thailand has been put into great jeOpar- dy by the guerrilla warfare of Communist agents. They have attempted to stimulate rebellion, and otherwise to promote chaos in Thailand. Thailand has long been suffering from international trade deficits. The most Obvious results of an unbalanced economic growth distribution within the country, especially of the GBM and the other four regions (Northern, Northeastern, Central, and Southern), have caused the increasing dis- parities in income distribution among them. Most of the benefits of economic development have been concentrated in the GBM, the other four regions have remained poor. These have caused the majority of the people of Thailand, who live in those four regions, to suffer from the rural economic decline, creating very low income with less self- sufficiency and an inadequate standard of living. 13 Consequently, the massive rural-urban migration has caused the unprecedented and uncontrolled growth of the GBM. This has created many undesirable problems in the GBM, such as slums, congestion, unemployment, crime, disease, and the rapid deterioration of human environment. Urban and rural problems have been deeply rooted in many factors of economic development in Thailand. An hypothesis for the basic reasons for this state of develop- ment is set forth in the following sections. Statement of Hypothesis In Thailand, economic development planning has been based on an excessively centralized government system, with great power concentrated in the GBM and a lack of integration of regional urban development into national economic develOpment planning. This centralization disre- gards the spatial distribution of economic deve10pment by: 1. Providing a disproportionate pattern of allocation of capital investments and other resources among different parts of the country so that a great proportion of such allocation is in favor of the GBM 2. Creating very little change in structural trans- formation of the nonagricultural sectors of economic production in the other four regions 3. Creating a very low agricultural productivity per worker in the regional rural areas because of 14 high agricultural employment 4. Causing a widening gap of inequalities of economic growth and income distribution in the country in a way in which most benefits of deve10pment are accumulated in the GBM. This four-part hypothesis presents the main pro- blems in the economic development of Thailand. Need for the Study The government of Thailand established the National Economic Development Board (NEDB) in 1959 as the national central planning agency for carrying out a sound economic development plan. Thailand adopted two formal national economic develOpment plans during the period 1961-71. The first plan covered the six-year period, 1961-66; and the second plan covered the five-year period, 1967-71. The main objectives of these development plans are dis- cussed in the following section. Statement of Development Objectives The primary objective of the development plans is to increase the total per capita output of goods and services. At the same time, this increased output should be equitably distributed so that, to the extent possible, all citizens and not merely a privileged few derive benefits from it. Moreover, these objectives are not confined to the previous two development plans, but extend 15 into the future for the well-being of generations to come.2 Although there was considerable economic growth and change during the past two development plans, in- equalities of benefits from economic developmental distri— bution persistently prevailed between the GBM and the four regions, including other consequential problems. The fact was that the economic development planning lacked an adequate conceptual framework. The integration of regional urban development and national economic development plan- ning never existed, in a spatial dimension, for allocation of capital investments on the basis of comparative advan- tages of locations. Priorities of development projects were not provided for linkage of plan formulation and implementation that would relate to established targets. In addition, the coordination of planning and implementa- tion, at all levels of government, was not adequately pro- vided for by the central government. It is not surprising that such deveIOpment plan- ning resulted in inefficient and wasteful efforts. If correction of economic growth and income distribution are needed, integrated development strategies must be initially provided for in a national context for improvement of economic development planning. 16 Purpose of the Study In order to improve Thai economic develOpment planning, it is indispensable that evaluation of the past two deveIOpment plans must be systematically undertaken. The results of the evaluation will reveal the magnitude of problems and obstacles related to the development plan- ning process as well as certain trends. It is a useful means for recommending integrated development strategies for linkage of different timing of plans (long-term, medium-term, and short-term) and coordinating of planning and implementation, at all levels ofgovernment, into a coherent pattern regarding the spatial distribution of economic development. This is the main purpose of this dissertation. The study will also attempt to develop answers to the following questions. What was the role that development planning played in the Thai economy during the past two develoP- ment plans? Why did inequalities of economic growth and income distribution create problems in Thailand? What were consequential problems in the GBM and the other four regions of Thailand? What were important factors that caused such in- equalities in Thai development? What kind of conceptual framework should be applied for recommending development strategies in order to correct previous problems? How? What further steps should be taken for fulfilling the Thai development objectives? 17 Scope and Limitations of the Study Because economic development planning of a country is a field which is multidisciplinary in nature, it is almost inevitable that a comprehensive approach should be taken in three dimensions: activity, space, and time. However, limitations of data and time available prohibit such a broad and extensive approach to all aspects of development planning related to this dissertation. The central theme of the study is to evaluate the past two development plans of Thailand for integration of regional urban development into national economic development planning. Therefore, in the activity dimension, the study is to discuss problems and issues related to economic development in terms of social, political, physical, natural resources and ecosystems, as well as to economic aspects. In the spatial dimension, the study is to compare the GBM to the other four regions of Thailand in economic development. Meanwhile, the time frame for evaluation will be mainly limited to the period 1961-71. Simultaneously, recommendations of integrated development strategies will be a long-term guideline as the time dimension. This dissertation does not analyze such social concerns as health, crime, poverty, education, social violence, or social institutionalization; the physical aspects such as housing, tranSportation, land uses and others; nor political or administrative aspects are 18 analyzed. Policy plans and deveIOpment plans and pro- grams are not formulated as planning aspects. In addition, international economic development planning is not in- cluded in the analytical study. However, some of these problems and issues are recognized and described as they are related to economic development planning in Thailand. Procedure of the Study Applied Procedure The procedure for evaluation of the past two eco- nomic development plans of Thailand will be based on the established development objectives and the statement of the hypothesis. Therefore, the measurements will be taken against the develOpment targets translated from the development objectives. At the same time, the criteria of the statement of the hypothesis will be designed as a measurement. These criteria will combine instruments and some essential structures related to economic development. The instruments are capital investments, labor productivity, and others; whereas, structures are referred to in terms of economic, social, political aspects as well as popula- tion. Some of these structural changes may become major means to development if existing structures are seen as obstacles. All applied criteria for measurements will be indicated in the procedural steps section (see below). Since economic development planning is complex, there is not a universal rule for measurement. Therefore, 19 a simple method of measurements will be applied for quantitative indicators in terms of ratios, rate changes, percentage, and real number distribution. These quanti- tative indicators are applied to those in terms of capital and current investments, gross domestic product (GDP), money income, labor productivity, and structural transformation of economic production. Quantitative indicators are use- ful in describing different levels of the pattern of economic development over time. In order to facilitate the evaluation of the results in a logical and systematic fashion, the components of integrated deveIOpment planning will be applied and described in relation to economic development. These components, as qualitative values, focus on the study of the government system, economic development planning organization and procedure, urbaniza- tion and internal migration, and natural resources and ecosystems. In addition, other qualitative values, which cannot be quantified but which are related to economic development, such as social and cultural factors, will be described. In this fashion,the evaluation will be facili- tated as such problems and trends of economic development are recognized. This will lead to indications of poten- tials for integrating regional urban development into national economic development planning, recommendations 20 for development strategies for the future development of the Thai economy. Procedural Steps Measurements and evaluation of the past two develop- ment plans of Thailand as well as implications for future development will be discussed as follows: 1. 2. Study of Thai economic development prior to 1961 Identify the set of time frames of the two plans already implemented and a set of periods over time for measurement a) A time frame of develOpment plans (1) The first plan, 1961-66 (2) The second plan, 1967-77 b) A set of periods over time for measurement-- 1961-63, 1964-66, and 1967-71 Measure the overall growth rates of output (GDP) over time against the established development targets of the plans Measure the growth rates of GDP over time, by industrial sectors, against their established targets, notably agriculture, mining and quarrying, manufacture, construction, transportation and communications, energy, commerce, and social services Evaluate the results of the performance of these two plans against the established targets 21 6. Measure the following criteria against the hypothesis a) b) C) d) Capital investments over time as shown by (l) (2) (3) Percentage and amount of distribution of capital investments in the nation, by regions and the GBM Capital investment per capita per annum by regions and the GBM Percentage distribution of capital invest- ment in GDP by regions and the GBM Current investments of municipalities over time as shown by (l) (2) Percentage and amount of distribution of municipal expenditures and revenues by the GBM and regions in the nation Municipal expenditure per capita per annum, by the GBM and regions Structural transformation of economic produc- tion over time as shown by percentage and amount of distribution of GDP, by industrial sectors, by regions and the GBM Labor productivity over time as shown by (l) (2) Percentage distribution of employment, by agricultural and nonagricultural sectors, by the GBM and regions GDP per worker, by agricultural and e) f) 22 nonagricultural sectors, by the GBM and regions Economic output (GDP) over time as shown by (l) (2) (3) Percentage and amount of distribution of GDP, by the GBM and regions in the nation GCP per capita per annum, by the GBM and regions The overall growth rates of GDP, by the GBM and regions Money and nonmoney income in 1963, 1968, and 1971 as shown by (1) (2) (3) Money and nonmoney income per capita per annum, by the GBM and regions Money and nonmoney income per family per annum, by the GBM and regions Percentage distribution of families, by income classes, by the GBM and regions Evaluate the results against the stated hypothesis Identify a concptual framework and components of integrated development planning by focusing on a) b) Description of general geographic character- istics and natural resources, mainly agricul- tural products and transportation and irriga- tion systems with provided maps, by regions Description of the pattern of urbanization of the country with the provision of some 10. 11. 12. 23 essential quantitative data for the periods 1947-60 and 1960-70 c) Description of the pattern of internal migra- tion in Thailand in relation to causes and effects of migration and the urbanization pro- cess with the provision of quantitative data for the periods 1956-60 and 1966-70 d) Description of economic development planning organization and procedure related to the nature of development plans and planning pro- cess e) Description of the government system in political and administrative contexts related to economic development planning of the country Indicate those problems and trends of previous components in relation to economic development in Thailand in order to verify those tests of the basic hypothesis Indicate potentials of integrated development planning, on the basis of antithesis, as the future hypothesis that will be appropriate for the Thai economic development Evaluate all previous findings in relation to Thai development planning Suggest measures of such integrated development strategies as 24 a) Identifying the structure of regional urban growth centers that will have potentials for industrial investments as key economic development units of the country b) Raising the efficiency of agricultural pro- ductivity for rural development c) Improving economic deve10pment planning orga- nization and procedure through the planning process d) Decentralizing the government's role in economic development planning on both political and administrative levels 13. Summarize overall theories, procedures, and major findings, and make overall conclusions, as well as summarize all recommendations 14. Suggest further steps of the study that should be pursued for fulfillment of such recommendations, as well as recognize other areas of development planning that are related to economic development in Thailand. Organization for the Study This dissertation is organized into eight chapters. Chapter I is concerned with the historical deve10pment and general characteristics of Thailand. The statement of problems, need and purpose for the present study is 25 provided. In addition, general procedures, sc0pe and limitations are included. Chapter II deals with explor- ing a conceptual framework for evaluation of the past two economic development plans of Thailand. This includes theories and applied procedures for such a purpose. Chapter III focuses on measurements of development plans during the period 1961-71 against the established targets. A statement of the basic hypothesis is also given. In the meantime, a conceptual framework of inte- grated develOpment planning and its components are intro- duced in Chapter IV, with theory and procedure. Chapter V continues the discussion based on Thailand. Problems, trends, and potentials of economic development of Thailand are develOped in Chapter VI. Chapter VII focuses on recommendations for integrated development strategies for the Thai economy in the future. Chapter VIII summarizes overall theories, procedures, and major findings from the study. Conclusions of the study are followed by the summary of recommendations. Indications of possible directions of further studies are also suggested. FOOTNOTES 1National Economic Development Board, National Economic Development Plan of Thailand, 1967-1971 (Bangkok: 1968), p. 87. 2National Economic Development Board, National Economic Development Plan of Thailand, 1967-1971 (Bangkok: 1968), p. 23. 26 CHAPTER II CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK FOR EVALUATION OF THE NATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT PLAN Theory of Economic Deve10pment Planning Development means many things to many people; and the manifold dimensions of its process lead to a wide variety of emphases in its prescription. Development is closely related to the idea of progress in terms of growth and change; and this idea appears to be generally accepted today. There is a general agreement, at least, that countries can be distinguished as more developed or less developed, or as developed and developing countries. Some countries may develOp faster than others in a given period of time. In this way, a develOpment can be defined as a process for improving the capability of a country's institu- tions and value systems to meet increasing and different demands of an economic, social, cultural, as well as a political character.1 In developing countries, the develop- ment refers not only to economic growth and industrializa- tion but also to change in structures and institutions. 27 28 Planning signifies essentially the process of choosing or selecting among alternative courses of action, with a view to allocating scarce resources to reach specified objectives based on a diagnosis covering all the relevant factors that can be identified.2 Such relevant factors include the social, economic, political, as well as the cultural structures of countries seeking to plan, and the choices include the selection of instruments and approaches that will be workable within those structures. In this connection, economic development planning involves deliberate initiation or promotion of economic growth and change with modernization of institutions, as well as with the allocation of resources necessary for economic pro- grams. Thus, the basic task of economic development plan- ning is to guide the economic growth and change in the direction of some image based on authentic national con- ceptions of welfare, justice, and creativeness. Without such an image, economic development planning would be constructing an organism whose existence would be pointless in the absence of a guiding intelligence. Moreover, economic development planning can and does take place on several levels, notably including anticipating future problems and needs; rationalizing the overall resources at a government's disposal and making the most effective use of those resources; and planning within individual sectors 29 and between related sectors (cross-sectoral planning). An effective promotion of economic growth and change depends, among other things, upon the ability to create and maintain the essentially certain structural and institutional changes of the country that are closely asso- ciated with the deve10pment planning process. In this way, it is necessary to understand the dimensions of the economic development planning; the evolution of economic deve10pment thought; the elements of economic influence in conditioning economic development; and the development planning organization and procedure for develOping a country's economy. These concepts will be helpful in evaluating the past two national economic devel- Opment plans as well as present development planning in Thailand. Dimensions of Economic Development Planning Generally, a conceptual framework of dimensions of economic development planning is conceived as an inte- grated system. It is composed of activity and space and time dimensions. The function of the activity of economic deve10p- ment planning is concerned by defining national goals, establishing the deve10pment objectives and targets, formulating the development plan and sectoral priorities, as well as constructing aggregate programs for the entire economic area to be executed by several agencies. However, 30 the function of economic development planning is also related to different types of development planning activi- ties: social, physical, and political (government struc- ture and administration) deve10pment planning. Although each of these planning types has its own field of activi- ties which make it unique, in reality, they become integrated, and their interactions are often highly complicated. The function of the spatial dimension of economic development planning is conceived to be related to the geo- graphical territorial space of planning areas and their corresponding administrative units. These planning areas are actually overlapping. Development planning pro- ceeds from a village and town to a municipality; then to a region which contains all villages, towns, and munici- palities; and finally, to the national level which embraces all of the planning regions. Because of the overlapping nature of planning activities among their particular jurisdictions, proper and effective cooperation and coordi- nation at all levels of government become imperative. Meanwhile, the function of the time dimension of economic development planning is a crucial element of a planning scheme for future change. Therefore, there is a need to formulate a long-term plan by setting develop- ment objectives and final targets; to formulate a medium- term plan ensuring proper phasing of the long-term 31 objectives; and to formulate short-term programs breaking down a medium-term plan into even more concrete projects, in other words, implementing policies into action-oriented programs which are formulated for immediate execution. Objectives are middle-term policies to which all short- term implementing policies are oriented. Middle-term policies are programmed over a longer period of time in an attempt to reach a desired ideal state or set of goals. These goals, in turn, make up long-term policies or objectives. In this way, every stage of economic develop- ment requires a compatible rate of comprehensiveness of those three types of plans, unless they become static and obsolete. Evolution of Economic Development Thought Preoccupation with the problem of economic deve10p- ment is not exclusively the domain of contemporary economic thought. Great economic thinkers of earlier eras were also profoundly concerned with the nature and causes of economic growth of the wealth of the nations. In the his- tory of economic thought, such figures as Adam Smith, David Richardo, Thomas Robert Malthus, John Stuart Mill, and Karl Marx are predominantly associated with theory of economic growth. The importance of this subject is such that, in the twentieth century, it virtually underwent a rebirth in the hands of such economists as Joseph Schumpeter, Alvin Hansen, and Evsey Domar. The development 32 of economic theory in this area will be traced briefly from Adam Smith to the present. All the economists here address themselves primarily to the problem of economic growth in countries already on the path of development. Despite the phenomenal progress in these countries in the past 150 to 200 years, it is perhaps surprising that many of these writers entertain the expectation and develop theories that predict that growth will be retarded and eventually stagnated. According to Adam Smith,3 capital accumulation resulting from savings, together with the growth of a population imbued with the propensity to truck, barter, and exchange, lead to a division of labor, the introduction of machinery, and consequent increases in the productivity of labor. All of these continue to promote economic de- velopment. But he believed that for all these a degree of opulence would eventually be reached where the stock of capital is so large, in relation to other resources and to the effective consumer demand, that the rate of profit will fall, and this will discourage capital accumulation and further growth. Others, too, assign a broadly positive role to savings, but not in so unqualified a way. Malthus,4 for example, argued that nations could have, with respect to savings, too much of a good thing. He emphasized that too much savings implied too little consumption, causing a 33 tendency to glut and a consequent underutilization of capital, a condition inimical to sustained growth. The theories of David Richardo5 and John Stuart Mill6 also point to eventual stagnation of economic deve1- 0pment. The law of diminishing returns in agriculture is the cornerstone of their analyses. A positive rate of profit motivates savings and capital accumulation, thus raising income, the demand for labor, and ultimately, increased wage rates and the size of population. A larger p0pulation generates an increased demand for food which, because of the Operation of the law of diminishing returns and the scarcity of arable land, will be forthcoming only at higher prices. Although the pOpulation will ultimately return to a subsistence wage level, money wages must be permanently higher because of higher price of food. In this process, rent has also risen, and little consequently remains for profits of stock. Capitalists are thus robbed of their motives for accumulation, and growth ceases. To this point, Mill and Richardo are in substan- tial agreement, but it should be noted that Mill takes a complacent view of the stationary state. The advent of this stationary condition, though it means the cessation of capital accumulation and population growth, implies for him no cessation of human improvement or even, paradoxical- ly enough, of technological progress. The latter, however, is devoted entirely to increased leisure rather than to 34 any increase in output. Karl Marx's7 theory of economic growth under capitalism is built with the aid of analytic tools largely borrowed from the classical economists. Marx, like Richardo, argued that capital accumulation would eventually reduce the rate of profit and thus the rate of economic growth. But where Richardo built upon the concept of diminishing returns, Marx depends upon the phenomenon of the declining rate of surplus value. This is the return to the capitalist that results from his exploitation of the working class: the wage payments that the capitalist must make to the laborer is something less than he derives from the laborer's output. Over time, however, the exi- gencies of competition induce capitalists to substitute machinery for labor. But machinery, unlike human being, yields no surplus value, and thus the rate of profit will fall, as the ratio of capital machinery to labor rises. In attempting to counteract the falling rate of profit, capitalists increase the hours of work and reduce the wages of labor, thus worsening the plight of an already exploited class. Joseph Schumpeter's8 theory of economic deve10pment represents a departure from the previous theories in that it incorporates no prediction or implication of inevitable economic stagnation. In this system, the burden of economic growth is borne by the entrepreneur. The rate of economic 35 growth in the capitalist system therefore depends in a critical way upon the size, quality, and activity of the entrepreneurial class. But entrepreneurs operate in fits and starts. Their innovations tend to appear in clusters, and therefore economic growth is not a smooth and steady affair. Nothing in Schumpeter's purely economic analysis bodes ill for future economic deve10pment under capitalism, but social and political forces growing out of economic systems are regarded by him as altogether another affair. He believed that it is in the very nature of successful capitalism to engender an atmosphere that is fundamentally hostile to the entrepreneurial class. On the one hand, the tendency to monopolistic bigness and to organizational routine tend to usurp the entrepreneurial function; on the other hand, the growing strength of labor unions and in- creased government intervention tend to impede it. Ultimately, these and other social and political forces will, in Schumpeter's View, result in the dissolution of capitalism in its traditional form. But it should be made perfectly clear that this unfavorable prognosis for the capitalistic system does not necessarily imply any diminu- tion of the rate of growth, for Schumpeter did not deny that growth may continue under a different economic system. 36 The catastrophic world depression of the 19305 prompted a rude awakening of interest in the growth pro- blem. As depression wore on to intolerable length, the advanced countries were in the grip, not merely of a cyclical disturbance, but of secular stagnation. Using an essentially Keynesian analysis, Alvin Hansen9 con- cluded that investment demand falls below the economy's savings potential, and that the actual growth of national income falls below the rate of which the economy is capable, with unemployment becoming a chronic condition. However, this concept of stagnation is much less extreme than that of J.S. Mill. For the latter, it meant the complete cessa- tion of growth of capital, output, and pOpulation; for Hansen, it is a matter of development at a decreasing rate, with general underemployment of resources. With few exceptions, the formal theories which have been discussed up to this point embody, either expli- citly or implicitly, predictions about the long-run outcome of the process of economic development, and these predic- tions have been predominantly pessimistic. In contrast, the Domar10 model of economic growth cannot be termed pessimistic, if only because it makes no prediction of any kind. The model derives the conditions concerning savings, investment, and the rate of growth of income required for the stable growth of the economy. This means that growth occurs with neither unemployment of resources nor inflation. 37 However, it does not specify whether these conditions actually are realized and can be expected. The aforementioned economists contribute something of importance to economic development. Conceptually, a theory is designed to explain and perhaps to predict some process or phenomenon. It Operates at a high level of abstraction, selecting only a few relevant variables from a multitude in determining which variables are relevant. However, common to all of these is the emphasis placed, in a greater or lesser degree, upon the capital accumula- tion, or the growth of the physical means of production, as the mainspring of economic growth. On the whole, the spa- tial distribution of economic development has been left out of these previous theories in economic thought. Factors Influencing Economic Development As is clear in the previous discussions, growth and development go together up to the point where the economy loses its capacity to adapt to changed circum- stances. It is virtually impossible to contemplate devel- Opment without growth because a change in function requires a change in size. In this way, an economic development must represent growth and progress and contribute positive- ly to social well-being rather than to stagnation or decay. In this connection, economists frequently find it convenient to think of economic influences governing economic growth in conditioning a given level of economic 38 development. These economic influences will be examined, particularly in terms of their nature and roles in pro- duction. This will not be a formal theory, rather, it will represent a collection of ideas and propositions which may be useful for economic deve10pment planning in Thailand. Traditionally, the factors of economic growth are classified as land, labor, capital, and entrepreneurship. However, there are many factors which are related to economic growth besides those traditional ones. At the same time, it is neither accurate nor especially helpful to single out a particular ingredient of economic growth and attribute to it the role of the first or primary factor in deve10pment. Some noneconomic aspects can become determinants of econom- ic deve10pment also. 1:22 Land and its resources in the familiar triad of factors of production are important to economic deve10pment. The availability of land is a classical factor affecting the potential growth of a country. By land is meant not only the physical surface of the earth but the total endowment of nonreproducible natural resources. The basic roles of natural resources are relevant to economic develop- ment. To the extent that such resources are a fixed quantum, their progressive depletion may retard the develop- ment process by raising the real costs of industrial raw materials to excessively high levels. In addition, land is 39 particularly important to developing countries with their paucity of capital or innovational skills. Other things being equal, a country's potential in economic growth will be greater the higher ratio of natural resources to population. Capital In the view of many economists, capital occupies the central position in the theory of economic deve10pment. It is not only regarded as central to the process of development but as strategic. Economic growth requires and depends on inputs to capital formation. Because capi- tal formation can substitute for resources and labor, many economists think that capital formation is the key to economic development. Given a capital formation and output ratio of some sort, capital formation leads to more output, thus providing a surplus for further investments and fur- ther increases in output. At the same time, a surplus of a capital investment mainly depends on savings, which is the prominent function of capital formation. However, in reality, care must be taken not to endow capital formation and output ratio with the force of a determinant in its own right because capital formation is not the only ingredient of the economic growth process. 40 gang The quality of labor is very important as well as of the quantity. Labor, unlike other variables in the productive process, must be placed in a rational economic activity as the prerequisite requirement. In a dynamic economy, changes in the capital structure must be imple- mented by changes in the skill structure; whereas, a shift from rural agricultural economy to an urban industrial economy means a complementary change in background, educa- tion, and in work skills. Increases in supplying the quality of capital structure, in changing the organization of production and distribution, of successful deve10pment of new materials and processes as well as products re- quires appropriate changes in the level and composition of skills. Organization An organization is needed to combine other economic factors for given production and distribution, in terms of the mechanism for managing, bearing risks, innovating technologies, and making decisions. Differences in quan- tity and quality of organizations may be used to explain differences in output among countries and local areas; improvements in the quality of an organization may also help to explain why economic growth proceeds faster than is accounted for by other factor inputs. The organiza- tion is frequently thought of as a private enterprise, but 41 a government also provides goods and services. However, the efficiency of an enterprise is based partly on cultur- al characteristics and partly on experience. Technological Change Technological change is a principal contributor to economic growth because, fundamentally, the impact of changing a technology is manifested in increases in the productivity of labor and capital but none of the other factors of the production is immune from its impact. The effectiveness of capital investment and new labor skills in contributing to economic growth depend, to a large extent, on a steady flow of new inventions: materials, methods, productive equipment, products and managerial controls, as well as directions. Therefore, the importance of technological change in the process of economic growth stands in marked contrast to the paucity of man's ability to trace and to explain the antecedents of such a change through the process of inventions and culminating in the application of inventions to economic development. Size of the Economy Economic growth, its rate and direction, is a composite result of innumerable decisions by individuals, groups, firms, and government. For economic growth to occur in a free enterprise economy and democratic political sys- tem, there must be a widespread desire for such a growth 42 and, also, a means of expressing this desire in the form of market demands as well as political mandates. The efficiency of production is partly a function of its scale, which in turn is limited by the size of the market. In addition, changes in scale, from the increase of market demands, provide the specialization of the economy not available at smaller scales and may result in a substantial improvement in the productivity. Transformation A transformation of resources among industrial sectors of economic production is a requirement for econom- ic development, particularly in the economy of more than one output. It is called for because consumption of any one good encounters diminishing returns after a time. As the income increases, old wants take smaller percentages of the income, and new wants arise. In consequence, resources must be transferred to new occupations. However, the shift of resources must imply an increased efficiency in the low-productivity sectors and in expanding demands for products of the high-productivity sectors. Particular- ly in developing countries, the major gains from the struc- tural shift to manufacturing and other sectors would not be possible without the increase in an agricultural productivity. 43 Economic Stability Economic stability is another fundamental factor in the economic influences that can help to expedite economic growth. No economic development is possible without a degree of political and administrative stability. Major upheavals aside, the impact of political and adminis- trative changes can affect the development policies through a shift in the formulation of development programs. In this way, the government is in a position to adjust devel- opment programs that would create reasonable economic stability on the basis of anticipated future values. With- out an appropriate adjustment, there is little incentive for any organization to invest in a productive activity. However, a complete stability in future values is, of course, impossible in a dynamic economy which generates obsolescence. But the economic stability is just one ingredient of those economic influences. Population The pressure of population is a major factor limiting the rate of economic growth and progress, parti- cularly in those develoPing countries with a high rate of population density and population increase. High growth rate in pOpulation keeps per capita output low. At the same time, the pressure of population has an effect on labor in terms of production. In some developing countries 44 where the proportion of the pOpulation under fifteen years of age is high and the age distribution is unfavorable to production, then the proportion of the population of labor- force age is relatively low for any economic development. However, assuming adequate training is available and food supplies can be assured, the pressure of population provides the labor force required for industrialization, increasing the rate of the capital formation and production in the economy. Noneconomic Factors There are some noneconomic factors which may shape and affect the economic development of a given country. These are such basic social and cultural values as customs, mode of thought, attitudes, and motivations. It is hazardous, particularly with reference to developing countries, to analyze and to formulate policies and progress of economic growth outside the context of social and cultural factors which condition such economic growth and in turn must be affected by it. Generally, economic growth will be blocked if the values are diverted from social and cultural domains. However, many such values prevail in economic development. A broadened and en- larged deve10pment program which looks not only towards an immediate increase in economic growth but also towards developing social and cultural values which will sustain 45 economic development will surely be worthwhile. The effectiveness of the economic development, therefore, depends upon how well it is placed in its prOper context. Therefore, the level of economic development is influenced by many factors, both economic and noneconomic factors, which condition such development. The capital accumulation and the pattern of its allocation within a country are obviously important for economic growth. The effectiveness in the use of labor, natural resources, and the level of a country's technology are essential for economic development. The adaptability of the entrepre- neurial organizations to the scale of markets and the role of the government in sustaining economic stability over time are desirable. The pattern of the population growth, investment, as well as the skill structure are clearly basic. In addition, the interplay of economic and noneco— nomic factors is very important in economic development. Economic Development Planning Organization and Procedure In formulating and implementing a national economic development plan of a given country, the established devel- opment planning organization and set of procedures may set an explicit goal for development objectives, establishing growth targets and priorities for the allocation of re- sources as well as carrying out a deve10pment plan. Al- though there are alternative ways of accomplishing a given 46 planning result within limits, it is essential to present general principles of the planning organization and pro- cedure. A planning organization and procedure in a given country, moreover, may be less formal than is indicated in the description which follows. However, either these ele- ments or their functional equivalents must be present for fully effective deve10pment planning. Planning Organization In developing countries of Southeast Asia there are usually planning units in all the departments and agencies of the central government. It is their function to prepare development programs and projects for presenta- tion to the national central planning office, which is the national economic plan-making institution. The national central planning office is often in a position close to the office of the prime minister, to the national legisla- tive, or to other chief decision-making bodies. Although its advice and prescriptions are not always followed, the plan-making institution is in an excellent position to influence actual assignments of resources. Generally, the national central planning office must be a unit within or attached to the office of the chief executive. It is a technical agency with a purely ad- visory function. It has sections staffed with economists dealing with macroeconomic aspects, global planning, such as national-income accounting, manpower needs and resources, 47 monetary and fiscal policy, and the balance of internation- al payments. At the same time, it has sections staffed with specialists dealing with sectoral programs, such as agriculture, mining and quarrying, transportation, construction, energy, manufacture,and commerce. It also provides a section that collects and analyzes statistical materials, one that carries on programs, one that evalu- ates the results of the development effort, and one that studies the administration of this effort and proposes means by which it may be improved. Moreover, there is a council at the highest level of the administration which makes final determinations concerning the deve10pment policy. It is to this body that the national central plan- ning office makes its advisory reports. Plan Formulation The national central planning office draws up plans of differing duration. There is a long-term plan, cover- ing as much as two decades, which sets forth in general terms the intended direction, pattern, and rate of develop- ment and explains the strategies for achieving goals. There is a medium-term plan, running approximately five years, which spells out the details of the development efforts in a manner that is consistent with the design of a long-term plan. Meanwhile, there are annual plans which contain the part of a medium-term plan that is to be 48 undertaken in each fiscal year. Of these, the medium-term plan is the most complete. It states goals and development objectives and presents macroeconomic projections of con- sumption, of savings and capital formation, as well as of output (GDP). It sets up attainable targets for growth in output; and it also aims toward an annual balance of devel- opment outlays and resources and foreign-exchange require- ments as well as availabilities for the economy as a whole, including both its public and its private sectors. In its microeconomic sections, the economic devel- opment plan (medium-term plan) allocates resources to several programs in such a way as to satisfy the require- ments of efficiency, insuring that no project is excluded which would yield a return higher than one that is included and that no project is included that would yield a return lower than one that excluded. To this end, it makes ex- plicit the criteria of efficiency which the national central planning office should apply in project analyses and in the establishment of project priorities. In this way, the deve10pment plan is internally consistent: the resources required by each project will be employed to fulfill the purposes for which the project was designed; the deve10p- ment plan is feasible: its provisions can be extended through the administrative organization and the procedures that are available. Finally, the deve10pment plan is broken down into annual segments that afford a basis for 49 the formulation of annual plans. Through annual planning, the medium-term plan undergoes continuous revision in the light of changing circumstances and evidences disclosed by continuing studies of its results. Plan Execution When the national economic deve10pment plan is formally adOpted by the government, the national central planning agency and the budget office cooperate in incor- porating the annual plans in the government budgets for the public sector. In influencing the development in the private sector, the national central planning office is, in the meantime, represented on the body that makes de- cisions regarding the government administration of negative controls and its positive inducements. The execution of individual programs and projects begins with the respective departments and agencies. However, the execution of the development plan as a whole is supervised by a central agency set up to parallel the national central planning office under the chief executive. It is the function of this operating agency to obtain periodic reports on the progress of development programs and projects, to remove obstacles to such progress, and to otherwise expedite the planned performance. The execution refers not only to carrying out the government projects but also to administering measures 50 designed to stimulate the private enterprise, make re- sources available to it, influence its course, and curb it where needed. The quality of the execution of a development program as well as a development plan depends in large measures on the quality of the government admin- istration in general. Theory for Evaluation of the Thai Economic Development Plans Conceptually, national economic deve10pment plan- ning is a continuous process which extends from the survey and analysis of data through the drafting of plans of action to the programming and implementation of resulting schemes and projects. A continuous review and evaluation are essential in adjusting plans, programs, and projects whenever necessary. The most conspicuous of deve10pment planning is the preparation of a development plan, which provides potentially useful guidelines. However, the deve10pment plan is not an end in it- self but rather a means. The development plan should be flexible, for changing conditions may make deviations from original targets and established objectives unavoidable. Moreover, the implementation of the deve10pment plan may be successful in one area or sector, but lag behind in others, necessitating quick and adequate adaptation. Thus a proper evaluation of the performance of the development plan must be established. The results of such an evaluation 51 may reveal the degree of effectiveness of the development plan against the established targets and objectives by comparison of the existing state to the planned state. In addition, the evaluation may also reveal problems and issues related to deve10pment planning with regard to the integration of the development plan with the long-term and short-term plans. This would lead to improvement in the integration of these plans, as well as improvement in development planning through recommendation of appro- priate development strategies. The evaluation of a development plan, thus, becomes an essential instrument in securing compliance and a coherent linkage of the three types of plans in terms of the time dimension. The development strategies are by no means mutually exclusive; on the contrary, they are com- plementary in many ways. On the one side, deve10pment strategies are needed as a direction framework for long— term policies planning; and on the other side, the long- term policy plan would make a judicious choice out of various elements of the development plan (medium-term plan) and program alternatives (short-term plan). Then, the short-term plans that constitute a concrete statement of how the nation proposes to control its resources, where it proposes to get them, and what other action it proposes to take during the year in the form of law and regulations to accomplish its purposes are needed to fulfill the 52 deve10pment plan. Since the development plan is more concrete, as an integral part of those three types of plans, the evaluation of the development plan is indispensable to any system of the development planning if the development plan is intended to be more than ornamental. In this fashion, this would lead to changing development strategies and recom- mendations through modifying the long-term policies plan, development plan, and programs as well as maintaining current and up-to-date plans. This conceptual perspective would be applied to evaluating the past two economic devel- opment plans of Thailand. General Procedure Contents of the Measurement In evaluating the past two national economic devel- opment plans of Thailand, which had been implemented during the periods 1961-66 and 1967-71, it is necessary to take into account the systematic procedure. The measurable aspects of such an evaluation are proceeded in the follow- ing directions and substances, with an adequate avail- ability of relevant data. The total performance of the development plans Since the development planning of the Thai economy is a process of formulating goals or values and developing 53 commitments to attain them, the fulfillment of development targets, therefore, leads to the desired objectives, and in turn leads to the goal achievement. In this way, the measurements of development targets will reveal the results that indicate the levels of performance of the past two development plans by comparison of the differences between development targets and actual events. Normally, a country chooses some overall economic growth magnitude as an objective and derives targets therefrom. The derived targets must be consistent with the development objective and with each other. With each target set, degrees of freedom with respect to the remain- ing targets are lost. In Thailand, the past two economic development plans were based on the hypothesis that the development objectives were expressed in terms of output change (GDP change) in the overall economic growth as the primary targets; whereas, the economic growth of each industrial sector also had a certain target to be achieved. Therefore, the measurements for evaluating the performance of these two development plans as a whole would be pursued against certain rates of the overall output change and each sectoral output change. Comparative performance of the development plans Although the past two national economic development plans of Thailand assumed that the attainable development 54 targets in both the overall economic growth and each sec- toral economic growth indicated the achievement of the established development objectives, they are, however, not adequate to measure the equitable distribution of the benefits of the economic growth in the country, particu- larly between the GBM and the other four regions, as the primary development objectives of those development plans. Even though the high rates of national economic growth alone do not imply the equality of the economic growth distribu- tion, they are still the only general indicators of economic deve10pment in common use. Comparisons of the performance of development plans in the equitable distribu- tion of the economic growth in Thailand should include the spatial dimension, as geographical territorial space, for measurements. In addition to final goals or values, the process of development of the economy involves the building up of instruments or means for goal achievement such as capital formation, labor productivity, technology. At the same time, there are various changes that take place with the economic development which are not necessarily considered to be final goals or values, and are not deliberately pursued as means, but which are nevertheless consistently found to characterize the empirical process of such devel- opment. These changes occur not only in the economic structure, but also include social, political and pOpulation 55 structures. Some of these structural changes may be useful to expediting an economic development, as instruments to such a development, if existing structures create obstruc- tions to the development. Conceptually, the picture is highly complex; and it is impossible to build up such a complete quantitative aspect for comparative measurements because of limitations of data available. Therefore, it is necessary to formulate an hypothesis which includes some essential instruments and structures. It will also include established development objectives for comparison measuring. In this way, this systematic process of measurements for comparative analyses of the performance of development plans will be applicable for the Thai economic deve10pment. In order to fulfill these requirements, the state- ment of the hypothesis is formulated (see Chapter I). At the same time, the selection of geographical location for comparisons as well as for quantitative indicators for the hypothesis will be delineated. They would be deliberately chosen on the basis of relevant criteria. Selected Locations and Indicators for the Measurement Selected locations In comparative measurements for the evaluation of the performance of economic development plans in Thailand, the GBM and the other four regions of the country--the 56 Northern, Northeastern, Southern, and Central regions-- are chosen on the basis of administrative jurisdictions of the government system. Moreover, the choice is character- ized by the homogeneity of certain geographic, economic, social, and cultural aspects. At the same time, these are problematic areas which are affected by policy de- cisions of the government. Quantitative data is limited to these geographic spaces also. Although the sizes of those areas are different, and there may be some differ- ence in social and economic interactions, the choice is not always arbitrary. However, the choices are adequate, relevant and systematic for the purpose. Selected indicators Capital investment formation. Usually, the amount of capital investment formatiOn is derived from the output (GDP) targets over time by assuming a certain capital to output ratio. The capital investment formation then be- comes an essential collection of individual projects that have been financed by both public and private enterprise. Therefore, given that other economic forces are constant, the change of capital investment formation should be related to the change of output; and the different patterns of the allocation of capital investment formation among the regions of the country should result in different out- put among them. In this way, the difference in capital 57 investment formation between locations should be the important indicator in measuring development plans against the stated hypothesis regarding the inequitable distribu- tion of economic growth in Thailand. Current investment. Current investment of a municipality of Thailand is used to indicate expenditures in minor programs and maintaining municipal utilities as well as in general administration. The current investment and the revenue over time are applied as indicators for comparative measurements against the hypothesis related to the pattern of allocating such expenditures to the GBM and the municipalities in the other four regions of Thai- land. The national central government budgeted in such a way that the large proportion of expenditures tended to concentrate in the GBM during the past two development plans of the country. Family income by classes and personal income. In comparison of the inequitable distribution of economic growth between the GBM and the other four regions of Thai- land, the GDP (output) is a useful indicator. However, it is not certain that the economic growth would benefit the people as seems indicated. The inequality of the economic growth distribution in Thailand can be understood when viewed in conjunction with the socioeconomic structure and the extent of mobility. In this way, the indicators of 58 the distribution of family income by class as well as income per family and income per person would be applied simultaneously to compare the benefits of the economic growth distribution. Labor productivity. In the developing country like Thailand, where the economy is dominated by a system of production such as the traditional agricultural system, involving massive amounts of unskilled and agricultural labor, the improvement in labor productivity is low. This in turn will make small direct contribution to economic growth. Therefore, the labor productivity of agricultural and nonagricultural sectors of the GBM and the other four regions of Thailand will be applied as indicators for comparative measurements. This will result in assisting a useful interpretation for evaluation of the Thai economic deve10pment related to the economic growth and distribution between geographical areas of the country. Structural transformation of economic production. In many developing countries where the structure of economic production is such that a large part of the value of the product and the growth of the product is concentrated in a limited sector which absorbs a smaller part of labor force, the labor productivity is very low. This is parti- cularly true in Thailand where the economic growth is 59 dominated by the agricultural sector only, but with a relatively small growth rate. The economic growth in such a circumstance, however, unaccompanied by improvement in nonagricultural sectors, will not readily spread to industrialization in such a way that will create a balanced structural transformation of economic production; economic growth will slow down or collapse when limits of renumera- tive exploitation have been reached. Therefore, an indicator of a structural transformation of economic produc- tion will be useful for comparative measurements of the economic structure of the GBM and the other four regions of Thailand. These measurements will assist the interpreta- tion of the evaluation of economic development in Thailand in relation to the economic growth between regions. Because economic development is very complex being an interdependent system of change, there is no prescrip- tion for which would be the best quantitative measurement. Therefore, the conventional and simple method will be applied to ascertain comparisons of ratios, rates, per- centage, and real number distribution. At the same time, there are many factors involving Thai economic deve10pment which cannot be quantified. However, they will be indi- cated and described as qualitative data, on the basis of literature related to the economic deve10pment of Thailand. Taken together, the procedure for measurements and the evaluation of the performance of the past two deve10pment 60 plans of Thailand will be relevant and applicable to comparative study. This study will be useful in improving economic development planning in Thailand, recommending deve10pment strategies. Summary and Conclusion When the national economic development plans of Thailand are evaluated their performance, it is necessary to understand the concept of such development planning. Upon examination, economic deve10pment planning is con- cerned with a sustained process involving the improvement of economic growth and change. Planning requires that scarce resources be allocated. This planning must be workable within the structures of the country in terms of social, political, and cultural aspects, which contribute to the economic progress. And the planning must reflect established national goals. At the same time, certain structural and institutional changes which are associated with economic growth and change must be established. In this way, economic development planning must be viewed as an integrated system of the activity, spatial, and time dimensions of planning functions and their inter- relatedness. In view of the evaluation of ideas of economic deve10pment theory, economists find it convenient to think of factors of governing economic growth as means for econom- ic deve10pment, and they place capital formation as the main factor of economic growth. The spatial distribution 61 of economic development had not yet been considered. However, economic development not only implies growth in output, input, and efficiency, but also implies changes in structural and institutional capacity related to such development. This leads to exploring factors influencing the economic development which are essential, as instru- ments and structures. These economic influences are land, capital formation, labor, organization, technological change, size of economy, transformation, economic stability, population, and other noneconomic factors. In the meantime, the machinery and set of proce- dures of development planning must exist for the promotion of economic deve10pment if such planning is to result in effective implementation for the national economy. All of these factors must be understood in evaluating the performance of the past two deve10pment plans of Thailand. Since effective economic deve10pment planning requires a sequential handling of long-term plans, medium- term plans, and short-term programs adjusted by series of successive approximations, it is necessary to evaluate the national economic deve10pment plans (medium-term plans) which are the most complete and the integral parts of these three types of plans. The results of the evaluation will be useful in recommending deve10pment strategies which are aimed at bringing about the improvement and coherence of these three types of plans. 62 In the Operation of such an evaluation, a systema- tic procedure is established to measure the overall per- formance of the development plans as well as the compara- tive performance of the GBM and the other four regions of Thailand against the established deve10pment objectives. In addition, the statement of the hypothesis is formulated with some essential instruments and structural factors that would be useful for a logical explanation of the objectives. These measurements are limited to the availability of quan- titative data. Meanwhile, a simple method of measurement is applied to indicate comparative differences of the existing state and planned state, as well as between the GBM and the other four regions of Thailand. Furthermore, some factors in terms of means and structures, as qualita- tive indicators, which are related to Thai economic develop- ment and cannot be quantified will be described. Finally, the choices of regions (the GBM and the other four regions of the country) for comparative measurements as well as for quantitative indicators will be defined on the basis of relevant factors. FOOTNOTES 1United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, "Highlights of the Symposium on Social Policies and Planning," International Social Development Review (New York: 1968), p. 16. 2United Nations, "Highlights of the Symposium," p. 17. 3Adam Smith, "The Wealth of Nations," in Studies in Economic Development, ed. Bernard Okun (New York: HOltl Rinehart and Winston, 1961), pp. 32-41. 4T. R. Malthus, "On the Progress of Wealth," in Studies in Economic Development, ed. Bernard Okun (New York: Holt, Rinehart and Winston, 1961), pp. 49-59. 5David Richardo, "On Economic Growth," in Studies in Economic Development, ed. Bernard Okun (New York: Holt, Rinehart and Winston, 1961), pp. 41-49. 6Stuart J. Mill, "Economic Progress and the Sta- tionary State," in Studies in Economic Development, ed. Bernard Okun (New York: Holt, Rinehart and Winston, 1961), pp. 60-70. 7Karl Marx, "Capital," in Studies in Economic Develppment, ed. Bernard Okun (New York: Holt, Rinehart and Winston, 1961), pp. 71-83. 8Joseph Schumpeter, "The Theory of Economic Devel- opment," in Development: Theory, History, Policy, ed. Gerald M. Meier (New York: John Wiley and Sons, 1957), pp. 85-99. 9Alvin H. Hansen, "Economic Progress and Declining Population Growth," American Economic Review 39 (March, 1939): p. 1-15. 10E. D. Domar, Essays in Theory ofEconomic Growth (New York: Oxford University Press, 1957), pp. 16-35. 63 CHAPTER III PERFORMANCE OF THE FIRST AND SECOND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT PLANS OF THAILAND Historical Evolution of Thai Economic Development Study of the history of the Thai economic develop— ment provides a background for its evolution in relation to the economic development during the past two economic development plans, 1961-71. This understanding will be useful for the systematic evaluation of these two develop- ment plans in interpretation, explanation, and generaliza- tions of the dynamic interplay among relevant factors, instruments, and structures of the country in the process of such a development. Prior to 1850, Thailand was economically stable and relatively content with a tropical climate, extensive waterways, heavy monsoon rains, and large areas of fertile soil. Almost all of the economically active population was engaged in agriculture, particularly in rice cultiva- tion. Whatever surplus existed was carried on, in a complex social order, to support the king and nobility and to use to defend the kingdom. Although Thailand had con- sciously avoided for at least a century having any 64 65 extensive contact with the more economically dynamic and aggressive Western countries, it was not characterized by the complete adsence of trading activity, especially with its neighbors. The history of modern Thailand began in 1851. Then the country began to be exposed to the influence of world trade and Western culture, as well as to major economic changes. Owing to the awareness of dangers which may have been seen in British and French territorial ambitions, Thailand began to concede to diplomatic and commercial pressures of Western nations. In 1855, the Bowring Treaty with Great Britain opened Thailand to extensive trade with the West, establishing a pattern which subsequently was followed in a series of similar treaties with the United States and France in 1856, and with ten other European powers by 1870 and also with Japan. The effect of trade from 1855 to 1939 was to transform fundamentally the dom- inant mode of production and to alter drastically the mode of social existence. This led to a vast extension in commercial agriculture, for the bulk of economic activity became directed toward the production of agricultural commodities for the export market, particularly for Great Britain. More importantly, it was a process of specializa- tion of production, while nonagricultural activities in terms of cottage industries were forced out by new, Euro- pean-manufactured, imported goods. 66 Because of such limited economic deve10pment since 1850, largely in response to external pressures and stimuli, the Thai economy remained firmly linked to most of its traditional characteristics. However, the economic evolution led to great alterations in the whole social fabric of the country, by changes in the system of pro- duction ensuing from it, and by a gradually increasing tendency for specialization of work. This, of course, was beneficial to foreign trade and industries, but greatly detrimental to the peOple concerned because there had been no compensating deve10pment of production in other direc- tions. In this way, the Thai people became less self- sufficient, and the country was kept economically weak from the intervention of the Western powers. Although the Thai government did not offer a solid economic activity in this era, the monarchy was still a progressive force in sustaining social, cultural, and political spheres of life. However, the crown became a restricting influence in the 1920s and 19308. Finally, it was not capable of promoting the deve10pment of an indus- trial economy. In 1932, not only formal restraints had been imposed on the power of the crown, but also an attempt was made to create the precondition for further economic change in Thailand by those at the tOp of the society. A period of tentative modernization followed, primarily under the direction of civilian and military elites. 67 At the end of World War II, Thailand was confronted with many problems. There was the need to restore foreign trade and exchange. At the same time, there was the pro- blem of fulfilling obligations imposed by the Allies for making available quantities of rice free of charge and sub- sequently at low prices. In addition, there was the urgent need to repair the damage inflicted upon economic infra- structures, particularly those of power, and transportation and communication facilities. Overriding all these pro- blems was the inflationary pressure which gathered strength during the war through the heavy financing of Japanese military expenditure in Thailand, and which became aggra- vated in heavy government budget deficits. In this way, World War II proved to be costly for Thailand, weakening its capacity for production and capital stock and leaving its incapacitating mark for some years afterwards. Some years later, again, Thai exports were hard hit by a world trade recession after the Korean War boom. The customary soundness of its currency was weakened and its usual trade surplus became a substantial trade deficit. These conditions compelled the Thai government to engage in major financial reforms designed to increase national revenue, to revise the method of financing new deficits, and to regulate exports and otherwise control currency exchange transactions. Since Thai public and private financial resources were extremely limited and 68 modern economic skills of all types were in short supply, the Thai government was compelled to turn abroad for assistance. Quite naturally, the Thai government looked primarily to both the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) and to the United States for the aid in promoting national security and economic development. Through various forms of foreign and international assis- tance, the government steadily improved the country's general economic conditions. Despite these efforts to bring about some order in the allocation of government resources, public deve10pment efforts were unbalanced, uncoordinated, and indicative of a total lack of scientific planning. Consequently, an economic planning committee was set up in the National Economic Council (NBC). The work was, however, purely of an advisory nature in working out development expenditure budgets for various ministries and state enterprises. The final job of trimming down requests was that of the Ministry of Finance, which at that time also lacked the necessary personnel to carry out a proper eval- uation of projects. The outcome was that expenditure was mainly decided by arbitrary negotiation and by yielding to the strongest pull. In this way, no economic revolutions were sought or achieved and, in fact, Thailand became in- creasingly conspicuous for its lack of a national economic development plan in the age in which almost all countries 69 had turned to such blueprints if for no other purposes than publicly to demonstrate their commitment to deve10p- ment. Therefore, economic progress was being pursued, after World War II to 1960, without comprehensive plan- ning or with a scientific development planning mechanism, and on the basis of pragmatic and fragmented efforts which were subject to conflicting and self-interested political pressures among the cliques of the Thai ruling elite. In general, there was, indeed, a greater willing- ness to provide necessary economic leadership by the govern- ment than had been true prior to World War II, but the efforts were fragmented, uneven, and not sustained with maximum energy. Consequently, such a movement away from the traditional subsistence agricultural economy, in the process of modernizing agriculture and related services and industrial sectors, did not involve a revolutionary behavioral transformation of economic structure into the urbanized industrial sectors, as well as in technological revolution. Economic Develppment During the Period 1961-71 Economic Development Planning Organization and Procedure As discussed earlier, there were some accomplish- ments in economic growth and structural modification between 1950 and 1958, but the results were not from an all-out campaign by the government. The military leadership had 70 assumed the modernization role of the country and revealed a much greater preoccupation with the national require- ments for economic development in the 1958 coup d'etat. However, the sustained effort to intensify and rationalize the country's economic growth was spurred in large measures by the deteriorating political situation in Southeast Asia and heightened Communist threats to national security, as well as by extensive recommendations transmitted to Thailand by a World Bank Survey Mission. Following a study of the Thai economy, this mission, which was organized by the IBRD, recommended creation of a deve10pment planning organization and procedure to the Thai government. In July, the NEC was reorganized into the National Economic Development Board (NEDB) by the government in response to the mission's recommendations. The NEDB was designed to function as the national central planning body. Finally, in the next four months, the NEDB pro- duced the country's economic development plan, a broad six- year program for the period 1961-66, to be implemented in two stages: 1961-63, as the first phase; and 1964-66, as the second phase. Subsequently, a second national economic development plan was created in 1966, for the period 1967- 71. Both of the economic development plans were pro- mulgated by a Royal Decree. Since then, the NEDB has con- tinued its role in national economic development planning. 71 Planning Organization The NEDB is composed of forty-five members, drawn from various walks of life but mostly from the military bureaucracy and civil service, under the chairmanship of the Prime Minister. However, the Board seldom meets. Its function is delegated to the NEDB Executive Committee, which was set up for supervision of day-to-day problems. The Executive Committee is composed of ten members who are technically qualified persons appointed by the Cabinet, including the Secretary-General as the head of the commit- tee; and the NEDB is administratively tied to the Office of the Prime Minister through its secretariat. The Execu- tive Committee meets regularly with the responsibility for determining deve10pment policies which are submitted by the central planning office. The central planning office, under the direction of the Secretary-General, is charged with the tasks of plan preparation and project evaluation. It is, therefore, the Executive Committee which actually recommends the national deve10pment poli- cies to the Cabinet for the final decision making. At the same time, the NEDB is also to coordinate closely with all ministries and operating agencies. In this way, the NEDB has access to the highest political leadership through a number of channels. Organi- zationally, the Secretary-General of the NEDB, who super- vises the work of the secretariat, has access to the Prime 72 Minister through regular briefing sessions. Meanwhile, the Executive Committee members are appointed from high ranking government officials and retired personnel who are usually well regarded by the political leadership.v’ Of course, access to the high political leadership does not necessarily guarantee the approval of the Cabinet in development policies and other measures proposed by the central planning office. However, on the whole, the degree of success has been fairly high. Plan Formulation The formulation of the past two national economic development plans of Thailand established the development objectives and growth targets. However, development pro- gram priorities for the allocation of resources were mis- sing from the development plans. In general, the plan formulation, during the period 1961-71, can be examined into two levels: macro- and microeconomic planning. At the macro level, an aggregate expenditure model was used to estimate the national GDP (output). The aggregative expenditure included investments, consumption expendi- tures, and earnings from exports and imports in different categories. This expenditure model was used to test the targeted GDP growth determined independently by the pro- duction approach. However, the final GDP growth targets were arrived at by taking into account domestic and 73 external stability constraints, allowing for a tolerable degree of unemployment in both public and private sectors. At the micro level, the development plan formula- tion involved Operating ministries and departments sub- mitting their deve10pment projects for scrutinization by the NEDB planning staff. The project information included the project targets and the size and sources of financing. Microeconomic planning is reconciled with the aggregate considerations by viewing government expenditures on deve10pment projects as a balancing instrument required to achieve the overall growth rate consistent with the macro- economic planning. However, the planning process at this level did not establish priorities among projects as well as present criteria by which such priorities could be assigned for the allocation of resources. The process of allocation of resources was done by providing develop- ment outlays agency by agency and year by year for setting ceilings for the possible guidance of the budgeting author- ity. In this way, it was obvious that the programming techniques had not been used or introduced to guiding public and private sectors over time in economic develop- ment planning. It is very difficult to see if development plans are internally consistent. Most of the sources of the data bases for those two development plans included national income account estimates, which were largely based on production data, 74 except in some cases, such as services, where expenditure data were obtained mainly from tax records, pOpulation census and labor force surveys, household expenditure surveys, trade and monetary statistics, as well as from government tax and expenditure information. Neverthe- less, these data bases varied in reliability, comprehen- siveness, comparability, and timeliness. Plan Implementation In Thailand, the implementation of a development plan may be divided into two stages: the implementation of development policies and measures proposed in the plan, and the execution of development projects by operating agencies. This system of implementation was employed in the past two development plans also. At the national level, the planned policies and measures were implemented through the resolutions of the Cabinet, the highest executive body, and through legislative acts in some major cases. There were not many problems in decision making in this context because the planned policies and measures of the development guidelines were stated only in broad and general terms without any identification of specific measures and programs. Meanwhile, the execution of devel- opment projects was translated into annual implementation through the annual budgetary process. The latter was sub- ject to a number of political and administrative con- straints; and this still exists. 75 As discussed earlier, all new capital development projects had, by the Executive Committee order, to be submitted to the NEDB by all Operating agencies for evaluation before they were presented to the Cabinet for approval. The NEDB's critiques, prepared in the planning office, were sent to Operating agencies concerned, to the Budget Bureau, and to the Ministry of Finance. In many instances, the NEDB criticism led to the rejection of modification of dubious projects. However, at times a numbercnfpowerful agencies carried their projects directly to the Cabinet, bypassing the NEDB screening process. In the Cabinet, where the NEDB was not present, such pro- jects might be more readily approved. Even where projects had been submitted for analysis, the objections raised by the NEDB might be overruled. A similar pattern was related to the budgeting process. The development plans, approved by the Cabinet, supposedly influenced budgetary action. The Budget Bureau, when reviewing an agency's request for funds, did, in fact, regard the annual allocations contained in the plan as a constraint, and the NEDB regularly prepared such a list of development projects to be reconciled with the annual budget prepared by the Budget Bureau without phasing programs over time. Therefore, the planning and budgeting lfunctions were not integrated. Because the budget was not.% subject to the authority of the deve10pment plans, the 76 stronger agencies did get what they wanted, even though it was not included in the plans, either by persuading the V Budget Bureau or by going over its head. At the regional and local levels, the implementa- tion of development projects was constrained by the amount of financial resources made available for spending by the centralgovernment through the Department of Local Administra- tion, Ministry of tmeInterior. In this way, the linkage between the development projects and financial resources was largely determined by the central government policies and measures, on the basis of a relatively overcentralized system. At the end of the final step of the planning pro- cess, deve10pment project execution was carried on by ministries, departments, and Operating agencies concerned with their respective projects. At the same time, in 1963 the Thai government established a project inspection team under the Office of the Prime Minister to set up a reporting system, check on plan progress, and develOp methods of evaluating project execution. This team's function was to cooperate on the closest terms with the NEDB and the Budget Bureau in project execution evalua- tion, as well as to supervise other departments and agen- cies in reporting the projects under their responsibility. Since the Thai ministries, departments, and even divisions, and other Operating agencies functioned substantively in 77 semiauthority, the administrative system suffered from the lack of cooperation and coordination among them. In inducing the private sector for deve10pment, the Board of Investment was created in 1960 to supervise government regulations and other means of incentives for attracting investors. However, it was very difficult to encourage private investors in development because of lack of adequate guidelines, providing research and information as well as programming systems. In addition, the Thai political instability made private investors reluctant to engage in industrial development. Underlying Philosophy of the Economic Development Plans The Thai government is committed to promoting formal economic development planning since 1961. A six- year development plan, covering the period 1961-66, was produced by the NEDB for the first time; and it was broken into three-year segments, 1961-63 and 1964-66. The devel- opment plan was a brief and rudimentary document, with a limited statistical basis, prepared under a forced draft by a small and inexperienced Thai staff. The plan indi- cated the Thai economic development objectives, strate- gies, and growth targets; however, it was indeed little more than a collection of public development projects, although it did attempt to relate these projects to the established development objectives. A few improvements 78 were prepared with greater care and rested on a somewhat stronger base in the revision of the second phase of the plan. An attempt had been made to overcome some of the basic deficiencies in the original plan, notably the broadening of the public sector to include state enter- prises and local government budgets, articulation of devel- opment objectives in a more comprehensive and clearer manner, and inclusion of sources of financing economic development and some consideration of prospective devel- Opment. Owing to the experience already gained and the wider availability of basic data for deve10pment planning, further improvements were reflected in the second deve10p- ment plan, covering the five-year period 1967-71. The scope of the plan was broadened to include the emphasis on the private sector in economic deve10pment and some aspects of manpower. At the same time, local and regional devel- Opment expenditures were introduced into the plan with some special projects in rural areas, particularly those in remote areas. Comparatively, the scope of the second development plan was more comprehensive than the first one. However, the central part of the two development plans was focus on the estimation of public sectoral development expenditures; whereas, there was no articulation in the estimation of the private sectoral development programs. 79 Established Development Objectives and Strategies In view of the main conceptual framework of the past two development plans of Thailand which reflect an effort of the government, a number of economic develop- ment strategies were established to achieve certain speci- fic growth targets within a stated period of time. These deve10pment strategies and objectives may be summarized in the following discussion. If the established development objectives, stated in Chapter I, are carefully observed, the special charac- teristics are, of course, the emphasis on rapid economic development and the well-being,both material and spiritual, of the population despite the political uncertainty of the country and of Southeast Asia. More precisely, well-being ‘was interpreted in terms of the equitable distribution of /flum a oaanam coflumz «me mom was hem some muw>flum a unansm nuaom com oev mmm Hmm mono mum>aum a unansm Hmuucmo mom mom mmm med mono mum>aum a unansm ummmnuuoz has omm Hon Ham mono mum>flum w chansm nuuoz nvo.« mov.~ wmm.~ mmo.~ mono mum>fium 4 Uganda zmo Haunmma wouamma mmuvmma monamma muonomm mmmnm mmmnm HomEumm>cH ocoomm umuflm “ohm: :OHmmm mafia ma 6cm .mov swam acmsmoam>mo umH Annum ca muccofi2 mooflum mama um Esccd Mom muwmmo mom mumullm.m manna 98 It is not surprising that the pattern of the allocation of capital investments was overwhelmingly con- centrated in the GBM. Given other economic factors in development to be equal, the GBM would have much more benefit of economic growth distribution than other parts of the country. Regarding the pattern of the private sector and its distribution, a similar pattern of develop- ment was concentrated in the GBM besides the public sector. Given the dire needs for such developmental services throughout the country, the allocation pattern and the development strategy of stimulating the private sector in economic deve10pment can perhaps only be explained by the government disregarding responsibility to other local and regional conditions and requirements. Current expenditures. Table 3.7 shows the per- centage distribution of municipal expenditure and revenue of the GBM and each region's municipalities. The GBM expenditure was over 56.0 percent of the total national figure in both periods of the plans, compared to the 10.0 percent of those municipalities in the Northern, North- eastern, and Southern region. At the same time, it was obvious that all of the municipal expenditure per capita were less than the municipal revenue per capita as shown in Table 3.8. In addition, the municipal expenditure per capita per annum of the GBM was the highest compared to 99 .H.m manna Eouw owudmfiou “mousom o.ooa o.ooa o.ooa o.ooa o.ooa o.ooa manuaccmmxm o.ooa o.ooa o.ooH o.ooa o.ooa o.ooa macm>mm coaumz o.oa m.HH m.m m.m m.m ~.OH muspaucmmxm o.oa m.oa m.oa v.0a q.m m.~H mscm>mm Busom m.mH m.ma ~.mH m.va m.mH ~.ma musuflccmmxm m.ma H.4H p.0a 4.4H a.~a o.ma macm>mm Hmuucmo H.m ~.¢ o.m m.e n.s «.0 musuflccmmxm a.m o.m o.HH «.5 H.~ v.e mscm>mm ummmguuoz N.m m.m o.m m.m m.oa ~.m musuflnammxm m.m n.m H.¢H a.m m.m 4.HH macm>mm nuuoz m.om m.mm h.mm ~.mm m.mm m.om wusuflccmmxm s.mm m.sm v.om e.mm m.ao o.~m macm>mm 2mm as as am so mm mm musuflocmmxm scammm uhoaa uoamfl uaoma -Hmma neoma uaoma mane . mGmemm an mwusufiocwmxm can mmscm>mm Hmmflowcoz mo coflusnwuumwo mmmucmoummllw.m manna 100 .As.o msnmev chsuMHsnma scenessmom paw s.m magma Eouw pmusmeoo ”monsom mes mes mes mes mes Nss unsusecmmxm mew esm mes ems emm mms mscm>mm cosuez ses ems ees ses mes ess mucusecmdxm msm mam hem mes mmm mes macm>mm space ses ems ses ems ees me manuseammxm ems sem ems ees ems ems macm>mm smuucmo mes ees mes mss mes em mususocmmxm ees eem mes ems mes em mnem>wm ummmnuuoz ems ees mes ems ses em mususecmcxm ems ems ems mes esm ems mscm>mm auuoz ees ees ees mes mes ems manusecmmxm msm ewe mew ems eem ems msam>mm 2mm se se me ee ee me mucuseammxm m neees neees neees usees neees usees mass cos mm Ausmm as muss0Emm Hmmfioflcazllm.m manna 101 that of each region and less than the national average during the past two deve10pment plan periods, as shown in Table 3.8. This implied that the primacy of the GBM in the urbanization created the highest cost in general urban management with a very large proportion of the national municipal expenditure, subsidized by the central government. At the same time, all of municipal revenues which were collected by the central government which were more than municipal expenditures were reallocated by the central government. Thus fiscal administration in municipal governments as well as in all local self-governments was marked by virtually complete central government control. Most of the dissatisfaction encountered among municipal officials in Thailand was not with the fact of the national central subsidy, but rather with the size of the national subsidy. Thus municipal programs became distorted and fluctuated from an excessive dependence on the central government for the funds to support even minimal programs. A similar pattern was related to all local self—governments in Thailand. Therefore it was impossible for the munici— palities and other types of the public local authority to become self governing as long as the utter dependence on the national treasury could not be reduced. 102 Pattern of benefits of economic growth distribution Economic production distribution. As shown in Table 3.9, the tabulation indicates that almost every regional economy, with the exception of the Southern region, achieved the established growth target of output during the first plan period, as well as the GBM's economy. However, only the GBM's economy managed to meet the established growth target of output during the second plan period. The GBM led all regions of the country in generating the highest growth rates of the economy, about 9.0 percent per annum in both periods of the past two plans, compared to only 6.6 percent per annum of the Southern region for the first plan period, and 5.7 percent per annum of the Northeastern region for the second plan period. Table 3.10 shows the output (GDP) distribution of the GBM and the other four regions in national GDP. The GBM constituted approximately 30 percent of the national output in both periods of the two plans, compared to only 13.0 percent of the Southern region, 16.0 percent of the Northeastern region, 15.0 percent of the Northern region, and 26.0 percent of the Central region. It was obvious that the GBM dominated all other regions in producing the output of the economy. In the meantime, the GBM led all regions in attaining output per capita per annum, with 103 .momz .conH>so mucsooo< smcomumz .mumo Haemmmuo Eouw omusmeoo "mousom e.e m.e e.e s.e e.e m.e lsmuoe wanna. moo e.e e.e e.e s.e e.es e.e mucussosueecoz e.e m.e m.e H.m m.e m.m musussomum< coHumz e.e e.e e.e e.e m.e e.e mao m.e e.e s.e e.e e.e s.e manussosummcoz e.e e.e e.e m.e e.e m.e musussosumm nusom e.e e.e s.e e.e e.e e.e moo e.e e.e e.ss m.es ~.ss m.e manussossmecoz e.e e.e e.e s.e e.m m.e musussosuma smuucmo e.e e.e e.e e.e e.e e.e moo e.e e.e e.e m.es e.es e.es muapssosuemcoz ummm e.s e.e e.s s.e e.e m.e manussosums uauuoz s.e m.e e.e e.e e.e e.e mow m.m m.m m.m N.m m.m m.n manuasowummcoz e.e e.~ e.e m.e e.e e.e mucussosue4 nuuoz m.e e.e m.es e.e ~.ss e.e mam m.e e.e m.es e.e m.ss e.e manussosummcoz e.mu s.e- e.s e.e e.e e.e musussosuma 2mm seueees seueees eeneees eeusees eeueees meusees msouomm mmmsm mmmsm HafiuumdocH pcoomm smash Honmz cowmmm swam ucmfimoam>mn pom swam unmEmoam>mQ “ma mafia ecosemm an mousse wees um new so mwumm nuzoso momsm>< Hmsccdllm.m manna 104 . Am . 0 OH H . U meQMBV mCOflUMHDth—v mQU Gnu EOHM UTUDQEOU u OUHSOm e.ees e.ees e.ees e.ees e.ees e.ees mew sauce ecmuu m.ee s.ee e.ee s.ee e.ee e.me musussosummcoz e.em e.em m.sm m.em e.em m.em mucussosum< cosumz e.ms e.ms s.ms e.ms ~.ms e.ms meo sauce m.e s.e m.e e.e m.e e.e musussosuemcoz e.e e.e e.e s.e e.e m.e musussosum< nusom e.em s.em e.em m.em e.em e.em mew sauce e.es e.es e.es e.ms m.es m.ms musessosummcoz e.e m.e e.e e.ms e.ss s.ms manussosuma smuucmo e.es e.es e.es m.es s.es e.es mam sauce m.e e.e m.e e.e e.e e.e mususnosnmmaoz seem e.s e.e e.e e.e m.e e.es mssussosum< auuoz m.es s.es m.es e.es m.es e.es moo sauce e.e e.e e.e e.e e.e e.e mucussosummaoz e.e m.e e.e e.e e.e e.e musussosuem nuuoz e.em e.sm e.em e.em e.em e.em moo sauce m.em e.em e.em e.em e.em e.em mucussosuemaoz es.e es.e es.e es.e es.e es.e mussssosumc zmo seueees seaeees eeueees eeusems eeueems mensees whosomm mmmnm mmmcm ammuumsocH pcoowm smash sown: commmm swam ucmEm0sm>wo cam swam ucmsm0sm>mo uma mama macsmmm an mwomum Noam um mow mo coHusnsuumso momucmoummllos.m magma 105 almost four times of the national average during the past two plan periods. The Northern and Northeastern regions had very low outputs per capita per annum, distinctively below the national average, particularly the Northeastern region, which accounted for about 50 percent of the nation- al average. However, the output per capita per annum, of the Central and Southern regions was slightly over the na- tional average. These figures are summarized in Table 3.11. If there were a correlation of capital investment to output of economic deve10pment, it would not be surpris- ing that the pattern of allocation of capital invetments by the government would tend to create the concentration of the economic growth distribution in the GBM and would create a substantial disparity of the economic growth distribution between regions of the country and the GBM. Family and personal income* distribution. In view of the average personal income per annum in the country, as shown in Table 3.12, there was a pronounced disparity between the GBM and urban areas (municipalities) of other regions in 1963, 1968, and 1971. The personal income of the people in the GBM was more than two times the national average compared to that of each region's urban areas, which were less than two times the national average, * Family and personal income are referred to money and nonmoney income. 106 .AH.D OHQMB Ucm o.o o» s.o mosnmev mGOmumscnme coaumssmom 0cm moo Eoum omusmfiou wmmmmmm mmv.m ~H0.m oam.m mmm.~ mmo.~ omm.~ :Oflumz eee.m see.m esm.m Nse.~ ewe.~ Nme.~ nusom eme.m eee.e mee.m mee.~ eee.~ eme.~ smuucmo eee.s eee.s mee.s me~.s esm.s ees.s ummmsuuoz vmm.m hom.m mma.~ Mbh.a Hum.a how.a nuuoz H¢H.NH ohm.~H H¢H.HH vwm.m ooh.m moo.m 2mm Hhahmma Hunchma mmihmma molamma omwwwmw mwmwmma cowmmm Uncomm umumm cmsm ucmEmon>mn cam swam usmfimo~m>mo and mafia Assam cs mucsosse mCOsmmm ma mmomum moms um Enccfi mom muwmmo Mom mowntsa.m wanna 107 Table 3.12--Money and Nonmoney Income per Capita per Annum by Regions at 1962 Prices (Amounts in Baht) R . Time 1963 1968 1971 egion Bangkok and Thon-Buri Municipalities (GBM) 3,398 5,354 5,611 North: Municipalities 2,032 4,162 4,278 Nonmunicipalities 994 1,343 1,671 Northeast: Municipalities 2,503 4,231 4,539 Nonmunicipalities 891 920 776 Central: Municipalities 2,574 4,293 4,959 Nonmunicipalities 1,576 2,254 2,539 South: Municipalities 2,708 4,121 4,743 Nonmunicipalities 1,408 1,447 1,670 National Total 1,470 2,232 2,573 Source: Computed from Table 3.13. 108 particularly in the Northern region. The personal income disparity was more pronounced between the urban areas and rural areas (nonmunicipalities) of the country. For examples, the ratio of the GBM to the Northeastern rural areas, in terms of the average personal income, was approximately 4:1 (3,398 baht to 891 baht) in 1963, and increased to 7:1 (5,611 baht to 776 baht) in 1971. A similar pattern of the inequity prevailed in family income distribution among regions of Thailand as indicated in Table 3.13. Table 3.14 through Table 3.16 show family income distribution by classes and by regions of the country. The annual average income of the nation is applied as a class midpoint of each year for comparisons. In this way, the class midpoint of 1963 income lies between the range of 6,000 to 11,999 baht; and the class midpoints of 1968 and 1971 income classes lie between the range of 12,000 to 17,999 baht. As indicated in these tables, almost 70 percent of the income classes of the country were below the class mid- point, especially those of 48.4 percent of the country which were under the 3,000 baht class, whereas only 19.5 percent were in the average class. The rest of the income classes, which accounted for 11.3 percent, were above the average class. A similar pattern of income class distri- bution was more pronounced in the rural areas, particularly 109 .>m>ssm .mnma can .onmd .mwma mmssuepcwmxm psonmmsom “moflmmo Hmoaumsumum Hmcowumz “mousom .muflm mssEmw mumoflpcw monocucmumm as mmucmsm a le.ee sme.es le.ee ese.ms le.ee ~m~.e mmsussmmsosesecoz can mmsumsmmaomcsz ”HmcoHumz le.ee ees.e Am.ee see.e s~.ee emm.e mmsussemsosassaoz le.ee eee.e~ le.ee eee.m~ le.ee mes.es mmsussmmsuscsz "space le.ee s-.es le.ee eme.~s le.ee eme.e mmssssmmsosqsecoz le.ee eee.e~ le.ee sse.m~ Am.ee see.ms mmsussmmsoscsz "smuucmo Am.ee eee.e Ae.ee ~me.e Ae.ee ee~.e mmsussmmsosc3220z l~.ee ses.e~ le.ee ~ee.e~ le.ee ese.ms mmsussmmsoscsz “ummmnuuoz Ae.ee eem.e le.ee eme.m sm.ee eem.e mmsussmmsoscnecoz l~.ee ee~.- le.ee mse.e~ ls.ee ~em.es mmsussmmsoscsz "zuuoz le.ee ~es.mm l~.ee mes.mm _«le.ee eee.es lzmue mmsussmmsoscsz «Homlcona can xoxmcmm Hhms mmms mead conmm mass Aunmm CH muchEflv mmumum mama um chHmwm an Escc< mom assEmm mom mEoocH mmcoficoz can mmcozllms.m manna 110 .eees $9.3m £33 30890: .838 smosumsufim sfioflmz "886m m.e m.e m.e v.0 5.0 m.H m.v m.NN h.mm m.mm o.ooa nusom m.e m.e v.o H.o m.e m.~ o.h m.hN m.em H.Hm o.ooH Hmuucmu H.o II m.e H.o H.o m.e m.H N.m N.HH m.mh o.ooa #mmmnvuoz H.o II H.o H.o H.o m.e H.N e.ma m.em m.mw o.ooa Spuoz H.o H.o m.e m.e m.e N.H v.m N.mH m.HN h.mm o.ooa mmHUHHmmfiOchficoz h.H m.H h.H N.N m.m h.m ¢.HN m.vm m.mH m.m o.ooa nusom H.H m.e N.H m.N N.m m.e m.vH H.mm ¢.mH v.~a o.ooa HMHHGNU m.H m.e m.H m.N h.N v.m h.vH m.Nm m.mH m.ea o.ooa ummmnuuoz H.H m.e m.H m.e m.H m.m v.0H o.bm m.mH e.mm D.COH nuuoz is. m.e “UH N.N RUN m.m 5.3” m.em 5.3” “HRH o.oo.n mwfluflflmmflog m.m N.N m.m o.v m.m m.ea v.hH h.Hm e.ma m.¢ o.ooa Emu m.mH m.em «.mv o.ooa coaumz «w m.HH (w Hm>O w mmm.mm mmm.nv mmm.mm mmm.mm mmm.mm mmmHhH mmmuaa mmm.m ooo.m undo ooo.om loco.m¢ tooo.mm loco.om I0oo.vm Iooo.mH loco NH loco m loco.m noun: lumm mGOHmmm Hmuofi Same mmmmmsme mucous Ammofism Nomi mems .mconmm an com mommmso «BUSH an mmflgfim mo comusfluummo mmmucmoummllvaé manna 111 .053 $9.5m gum? ostmsom .mofimmo Hmoflmflmum. Hmcoflmz "8.30m . e.e J Me 4 e.e e.sm e.em m.es e.ees 58m e.e e.ms e.es m.em s.es e.e e.ees smflcwo s.s em e.e e.es e.sm s.~e e.ees $85.82 e.e e.e e.ss s.em m.em e.es e.ees fiuoz e.~ e.e e.es e.em e.em e.mm e.ees 833.88% e.e m.m s.e e.e e.e e.es e.ms e.em e.e ms e.ees 58m. m.e em e.e m.e m.ms m.es e.em e.es e.e ~.s e.ees smfifio m.e e.e m.e s.e m.es e.es e.em e.sm m.m e.s e.ees 0865qu e.e s.s s.e m.e e.e e.es e.es e.em e.ms e.s e.ees fiuoz e.e m.m m.e e.e m.e e.es e.sm m.em e.e m.s e.ees 80288qu e.es e.e e.e e.e e.ms e.es e.em m.ms ms e.e e.ees 28 ..V e.es 4. e.ss e.em e.mm s.em e.ees Sflmz 8% e eeeuee means. eeeuem eeeuem eeeumm genes eeeuss eeeue eee.m ammo -eee ee -eee es -eee em ..eee em neee em ueee es -eee ms weee e ..eee m “85 .08 8088 sauce 3ng mommmHU 9.005 Ammossm mead moms .98ng mo cam mommmfie 9.005 .3 mmfldfim mo coflsfissummo mmficmouomnsmsm manna 112 .mees .smsusm musesecmexm esonwmeo: .mosmeo seosumsumum smecsuez mmmmmmm 4 m.m J: «leg 1 e.ss m.mm s.em s.em e.ees fisom e.e e.ms e.es e.em s.sm e.ms e.ees seguemo e.e e.~ e.e e.es m.em e.es e.ees ummasugoz e.s e.e e.e m.ms e.em m.em e.ees nuuoz s.m m.e e.e e.em e.em e.em e.ees mmsussmesosezaeoz e.e e.m e.e m.e e.ss e.es e.mm s.- s.e e.e e.ees canoe m.m e.e e.e e.e e.es m.es e.es e.es m.m e.s e.ees sensemo e.e m.m e.e m.e e.ss e.es e.em m.mm e.e e.m e.ees ummmauuoz e.e e.m m.e e.e e.e e.es e.sm e.ms e.e s.m e.ees nugoz e.e e.e e.e m.e e.es e.es e.sm e.sm m.e m.m e.ees 832883.: m.es s.e e.es e.e s.ms e.es e.es m.ms m.m m.e e.ees 2mm xv; e.es «A» m.ss e.em e.sm e.mm e.ees :osumz swam e eee.ee eeeuee eeeuem eeeuem eem.m~ eee.es mme.ss eee.e eee.m semo ueee ee -eee.ee ueee em -eee em -eee em ueee.es -eee.~s ueee.e ueee.m “megs lama meosemm seeps same mmmmmau 9505 Ammossm meese.sees .mgosmmm an new mmmmMso msuocs an mmsssamm mo easusnsuumso mmmuamoummuues.m usage 113 those of the Northern and Northeastern regions which con- tained about 64 percent and 79 percent of income classes under the 3,000 baht class respectively. The pattern of the inequity of income distribution was even more pronounced between the urban areas and rural areas of the country. The GBM led all regions in constituting higher income classes, 48 percent of the income classes and only 19.8 percent under the average class; the rest about 31.7 percent, were in the average class. The pattern of income distribution by classes, in 1968 and 1971, was similar to that of 1963. However, the tabulations show that the income class under 3,000 baht decreased to 24.1 percent in 1968 and 23.7 percent in 1971 compared to 48.4 percent in 1963. This shows that there were many low-income families who moved up the income class scale between 1968 and 1971. However, most of the benefits of income distribution accrued to the higher income classes of the country, which moved up from 11.3 percent in 1963 to 14.8 percent in 1968, and to 16.6 percent in 1971, and, in fact, these families were obviously reflected in the higher income classes in urban areas, particularly those in the GBM, as indicated in the tabulations. Despite the government planning and deve10pment efforts, the disparity of income distribution among urban and rural areas of Thailand became wider, as evidenced by the previous discussion. In this connection, 114 it can be said that the people who were in the urban areas moved up in income class, particularly those in the higher income group. But it is not clear how significantly these reflect economic deve10pment during the past two plan periods. By the same token, the peOple who lived in the rural areas seemed very difficult to move up to or above the average class. If there was a significant correlation between income and economic growth distribu- tion, it was not surprising that the majority of the people of the country, particularly those in the rural areas, were outside of the main streams of economic growth dis- tribution as reflected by worsening income distribution. Labor productivity During the first and second development plan periods, the importance of agriculture to the national economy was marked by its labor employment, which accounted for approximately 80 percent of the total labor force, as shown in Table 3.17. The Northeastern region led all regions in agricultural employment with more than 90 percent of its total employment. In contrast, the GBM had more than 96 percent of its total labor force engaged in nonagricultural activities. Accompanied by substantial gains in such sectors of manufacturing and commerce, the Central region contained agricultural employment of about 75 percent of the total labor force of its region. 115 Table 3.17--Percentage Distribution of Labor Force by Regions . Indus- Time Region trial 1960 1963 1967 1970 Sector GBM Agriculture 3.7 2.6 2.4 1.6 Nonagriculture 96.3 97.4 97.6 98.4 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 North Agriculture 86.7 86.3 85.9 85.6 Nonagriculture 13.3 13.7 14.1 14.4 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 North— Agriculture 93.4 92.9 92.2 91.8 east Nonagriculture 6.6 7.1 7.8 8.2 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 'Central Agriculture 76.3 76.1 75.6 75.2 Nonagriculture 23.7 23.9 24.4 24.8 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 South Agriculture 85.8 84.3 83.3 82.5 Nonagriculture 14.2 15.7 16.7 17.5 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Nation Agriculture 82.3 81.7 80.8 79.3 Nonagriculture 17.7 18.3 19.2 20.7 Grand Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Source: Computed from Table E.l. 116 Consequently, the agricultural productivity, in terms of GDP per worker, was comparatively lower than the nonagricultural one as shown in Table 3.18. As indicated in the tabulations, the agricultural productivity of all regions was overwhelmingly less than the national average labor productivity. Conversely, all regions had much more nonagricultural productivity than the national average, especially the GBM. During the first plan period, the non- agricultural productivity of the GBM was approximately 26,876 baht compared to only 1,376 baht of the Northeastern region's agricultural productivity; and these figures in- creased to 35,840 baht of the GBM, and to 1,552 baht of the Northeastern region. This was a similar pattern between the GBM and the other four regions of Thailand. In this way, the other four regions of Thailand remained poor, not so much because their economies were predominantly agricultural as because agricultural produc- tivity in the regions was very low. This low performance appeared to hinder to the economic growth of these re- gions during the first and second development plan periods. Structure of economic production Regarding the structure of economic production of the GBM and the four regions of Thailand, all regions were predominantly dominated by the agricultural sector, as shown in Table 3.19 through Table 3.21, during the past 117 .AH.m magma pom m.o ou H.O mmsnmav mc0mu0ssnma mouom Hones new mom Eoum cousmeoo "mousom eme.e eme.e ~me.e ese.e esm.e eee.e moo smuoe venue eee.em se~.e~ ees.- ees.es ~ee.es eee.es manussosummcoz eee.~ mse.~ ese.~ ees.~ ee~.~ eee.~ manussosumm cosumz eee.e mes.e ess.e mem.e mee.e eee.e mow ee~.e~ ses.e~ eee.- eem.es eee.es ese.es manussosummcoz see.e mem.e eee.m eee.m Nee.m eme.~ manussosum< nusom mee.e ese.e me~.e see.e eee.e eee.e moo eme.es eee.s~ mmm.es eee.~s eme.ms eme.es musussosumecoz eee.m ees.v mee.m esm.m eee.m ees.m wusussossm< smuuamo eee.~ mes.m eme.~ sem.m eee.~ ems.~ mow ~ee.ms sem.e~ eee.es ee~.es ees.es eee.ms manusnosummcoz seem ~ee.s eee.s eee.s eem.s eme.s esm.s musesaosum< unuuoz eee.e ee~.e eee.e ~ee.m ese.m ee~.m moo ees.es sem.es see.es ses.~s sme.~s eee.ss musussosummcoz eee.~ eee.~ mee.~ mee.~ ee~.~ ese.s waspssosums nuuoz esm.em ee~.em esm.~m e-.em see.e~ eee.em moo eee.em eme.em eee.~m eee.e~ eem.e~ emm.e~ mucussosumecoz ese.e ees.e mme.e eme.m ems.e eee.m manussosums 2mm seueees seseees eeneees eeusees eeueees mensees muouowm OmMSQ wmwfim HMHHumDQQH ocoomm unusm HOnmz cosmmm swam ucw6m0sm>mo cam cmam ucmemoam>mo ums mama luamm as mangoese mconmm an mousse moms um Asmxsoz smm move wusbwuosooum uonmqllms.m magma 118 Table 3.19--Percentage Distribution of Economic Production by Industrial Sectors and Regions Time lst Development Plan 2nd DP (DP) Region First fiaxmd Phase Phase Industrial 1961- 1964- 1961- 1967- Sectors 63 66 66 71 Nation Agriculture 37.3 34.6 35.9 29.6 Mining & Quarrying 1.2 1.5 1.4 1.9 Manufacturing 14.0 15.2 14.6 16.4 secondary Construction 5.0 5.9 5.5 6.4 Power & Water Supply 0.6 0.8 0.7 1.2 Transport & Comm 7.1 7.0 7.1 6.6 Tertiary Commerce 15.7 16.1 15.9 17.5 _Social Services 20.1 19.9 20.0 20.5 Total GDP 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 GBM Agriculture 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 Mining & Quarrying -- -- -- -- Manufacturing 22.6 24.0 23.3 26.4 sec°ndary Construction 6.8 7.1 7.0 7.2 Power & Water Supply 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.8 Transport & Comm 12.6 12.1 12.4 10.6 Tertiary Commerce 26.1 25.6 25.9 22.4 Social Services 30.4 29.7 29.9 31.3 Total GDP 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Source: Computed from GDP Tabulations (Table C.1 and C.2). 119 Table 3.20--Percentage Distribution of Economic Production by Industrial Sectors and Regions Time lst Deve10pment Plan 2nd DP (DP) Regions First Second Phase Phase Industrial 1961- 1964- 1961- 1967- Sectors 63 66 66 71 North Agriculture 51.6 52.0 51.8 49.4 Mining & L Quarrying . ,7 T Manufacturing . . . secondary Construction . . Power & Water 3% Supply 1.2 1.9 1.5 3.4 Transport & Comm 5.6 4.6 5.1 4.4 Tertiary Commerce 12.9 13.1 13.0 11.1 ‘*“Social Services 14.1 13.1 13.7 15.4 Total GDP 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Northeast Agriculture 53.8 53.8 53.8 48.2 Mining & Quarrying . .7 T Manufacturing . . . .9 secondary Construction . . . . Power & Water 5% Supply 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.6 Transport & Comm 3.8 4.2 4.0 4.6 Tertlary Commerce 10.4 11.0 10.7 13.5 4 Social Services 19.8 15.4 17.6 14.7 "Total GDP 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Source: Computed from GDP Tabulations (Tables C.3 and C .4). 120 Table 3.21—-Percentage Distribution of Economic Production by Industrial Sectors and Regions C .6). . lst Development Plan 2nd DP Time (DP) Regions First Second Phase Phase Industrial 1961- 1964- 1961- 1967- Sectors 63 66 66 71 Central Agriculture 49.4 44.5 46.8 37.7 Mining & L Quarrying 1.3 1.8 1.6 2.1 ,h Manufacturing 14.7 16.9 15.8 18.4 Secondary Construction 4.4 5.2 4.8 5.2 Power & Water Supply 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.7 Transport & Comm 4.7 5.4 5.1 5.6 Tertiary Commerce 9.8 10.5 10.2 14.7 L Social Services 15.5 15.4 15.4 15.6 Total GDP 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 South Agriculture 44.5 44.4 44.4 44.6 Mining & Quarrying . .3 . . T Manufacturing . .4 . . Secondary Construction . .8 . 4.7 Power & Water a9 Supply 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.8 Transport & Comm 6.8 5.6 6.2 4.9 Tertiary Commerce 16.9 16.6 16.8 17.4 *1 Social Service 14.1 13.4 13.7 13.1 Total GDP 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Source: Computed from GDP Tabulations (Tables C.5 and 121 two development plan periods. The Northern and North- eastern regions had approximately 50 percent of their economic production in agriculture; whereas the figures indicated that the Southern region had about 45 percent. This was due to very little change in the increase of nonagricultural sectors. However, the agricultural produc- tion of the Central region dropped from 46.7 percent during the first plan period, to 37.7 percent during the second plan period. Manufacturing and commercial sectors substantially grew around the GBM. The GBM led all regions in constituting almost 100 percent in nonagricultural sectors, particularly those of manufacturing, commerce, and social services; and the GBM alone was characterized by industrialization in the country. Therefore, the GBM advanced the structural transformation of the economic production, whereas, the remaining regions showed only very modest gains in such a structural transformation, especially in the case of the Central region, and remained unchanged for the rest of the country. This in turn created very low efficiency in labor productivity, particularly in agricultural produc- tivity in the four regions of Thailand. At the same time, the agricultural economy of the country was caught up in exportation, which was being overshadowed by the impact of price changes in the international market, and the large share of the profit went abroad, instead of remaining 122 within the country for domestic investment. Thus the four regions remained poorer from such development planning. Summary and Conclusion Thailand's economic deve10pment pattern was basically autonomous and self-sufficient, with the govern- ment playing only a minor role in the period prior to 1850. The economic strength of the country began to decline with less self-sufficiency because of political and economic pressures from European powers, particularly of Great Britain and France, after 1850. Furthermore, the economic conditions of the country were weakened after the World War II and Korean War boom. At this time, the Thai government established the NEDB with responsibi- lity for economic deve10pment planning for improving the Thai economy. Consequently, the NEDB produced two national economic development plans with the aim of accelerating economic growth and the equity of the benefits of economic growth distribution. The first development plan covered a six-year period, 1961-66; the second covered a five-year period, 1967-71. The general underlying philosophy of development objectives and strategies of the plans were not ideolo- >< gically doctrinare, overly ambitious, nor impractical; they rather sought to be realistic, with modest yet 123 apparently achievable targets. The plans were, in fact, a collection of public development projects without the V’ establishment of deve10pment programs and project priori- ties. The development strategies contained few new and no radical components. The government emphasized the “' role of private enterprise in the economy. However, the deliberate plans for guiding and controlling appropriate types of private enterprises were nonexistent. At the same time, the urban and regional development strategy for guiding comparative advantages of locations in the pattern of resources allocation was not introduced into the plans. In this way, it was not surprising that the plans were oriented to the sectoral planning only, disregarding the equity of the benefits of economic growth distribution in relation to the allocation of resources. Together with the excessive centralization of the government system, the economic planning and development were virtually con- trolled downward by the central government in every phase of the administrative system. Moreover, the lack of systematic and coherent examination of relevant develop- ment policies and specific projects to ensure a well coordinated plan formulation and implementation tended to lead to many adversities of planning and development 124 besides the unfeasibility of the development plans themselves. Surprisingly, Thailand made good economic progress and surpassed the expected growth target of the overall output with a growth rate of 8.1 percent per annum compared to the established one of 7.8 percent per annum during the first plan period. Unfortunately, the performance of the second plan fell short of the established growth target, 8.5 percent per annum, with a growth rate of 7.7 percent per annum, despite the improvement of the second plan. At the same time, the results of measurements against the stated hypothesis revealed that the pattern of the allocation of the capital investment and the current expenditures of the municipalities of the country by the central government tended to overwhelmingly favor the GBM; that the benefits of economic growth distribution were concentrated in the GBM; that the structural trans- formation of economic production and the efficiency of productivity were dominated by the GBM. Consequently, the four regions remained poorer from such economic develop- ment planning by the Thai government; and the established development objectives were partially attained, particu- larly those in favor of the GBM. During the past two development plan periods, the GBM led all regions in the capital investment of 125 approximately 40 percent of the total national capital investment, compared to only 10 percent of the Southern region. Menwhile, the GBM had the most favorable capital investment per capita per annum of 2,465 baht and 4,047 baht during the first and second plan periods respectively, compared to 202 baht and 368 baht of the Northeastern region. A similar pattern of the allocation of municipal current expenditures was found in favor of the GBM, con- stituting almost 60 percent of the total expenditures within the same period of time. The GBM also led all regions in gaining the economic growth distribution with approximately 30 percent of the total national output (GDP) compared, for example to 13 percent for the Southern region during the previous period of time. Furthermore, the GBM produced the GDP per capita per annum which accounted for 9,384 baht for the first plan period, and increased to 12,141 baht for the second plan period, compared to 1,263 baht and 1,556 baht of the North- eastern region reSpectively. The pattern of family and personal income distribution was similar to that of the GDP growth distribution. More importantly, the increase of income distribution was reflected in the top income classes of the country, especially those of the GBM, during the past two plan periods. In terms of the structural transformation of the economic production, all of the regions were predominantly 126 dependent on agriculture with a massive agricultural employ- ment. For example, the Northeastern region had approxi- mately 50 percent of agricultural production in its total GDP distribution with approximately 92 percent of the region's total labor force engaged in agricultural activities. At the same time, almost 100 percent of the GBM's GDP originated from nonagricultural sectors, parti- cularly those of manufacturing and commerce, with the employment of about 98 percent of the total labor force related to these nonagricultural sectors. In addition, all four regions showed little change in nonagricultural sectors toward becoming industrialized, as the GBM did. In this way, the GBM led all regions in economic productivity, particularly compared to agricultural pro- ductivity of the four regions. For example, the average labor productivity of the GBM was 26,220 baht during the first plan period, and increased to 35,217 baht during the second plan period, compared to the agricultural labor productivity of the Northeastern region of about 1,376 baht and 1,552 baht respectively. Unless there is struc- tural transformation and increasing agricultural produc- tivity in these regions, the economic growth will per- sistently slow down, and might not be adequately sustained in the future. As evidenced by the results of measurements, the pattern of economic deve10pment and the benefits of such 127 a deve10pment tended to be consistent with the excessive centralization of the Thai government system, with the great concentration of power in the GBM and with the lack of the urban and regional development plans integrated into the national economic deve10pment plans. In view of these consistencies, the results of measurements are likely to support the statement of the hypothesis. FOOTNOTES 1National Economic Development Board, National Economic Development Plan of Thailand, 1967-1971 (Bangkok: 128 CHAPTER IV CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK FOR NATIONAL PLANNING FOR URBAN AND REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT According to conventional practice, national economic deve10pment planning for any country is usually divided into two principle parts, global and sectoral.l In global plan- ning, the concern is with establishing overall balances between variables such as consumption and investments, exports and imports, and the supply and demand of employment opportunities. In addition, global planning establishes national priorities for resource allocations to the broad functional sectors of the economy, such as agriculture, manufacturing, and transportation. Sectoral planning, on the other hand, working within this framework of target figures and budget constraints, is chiefly concerned with drawing up specific projects and combining them into more compre- hensive programs. This two part type of economic deve10p- ment planning was used in Thailand during two recent deve10p- ment plans. To a significant extent, the major sectors of the economy correspond to the administrative structure of the national government with its ministries and agencies, each of which is devoted to functionally specialized tasks. 129 130 They also coincide with the structure of national income accounts. This correspondence of functional sectors with administrative and accounting structures facilitates the formal integration of sectoral with global planning. However, sectoral planning remains incomplete so long as it lacks a spatial dimension. Although the process of development by sectoral planning can increase the average growth rate of the national output (GDP) as a whole, it is a fact that each sectoral project has a definite geographic location and varying impacts on developments and levels of benefits in different parts of the nation. This variance results in the increasing concentration of the benefits of the economic growth distribution in a few locations, creating the widespread phenomena of depressed or lagging regions which grow at much slower rates than the few leading areas in the country. This constitutes the inequity of economic growth and income distribution among regions of the country, particularly in the case of Thailand. These pro- blems can be identified as the lack of integration of urban and regional deve10pment planning into national economic deve10pment planning with a close link with the spatial dimension. When the existence of these regional economic growth and income differences is accepted, the rational framework must be provided to strike a balance between the economic growth and income distribution in the nation and to bring 131 about progress. In Thailand, there is little integration in this development planning. Therefore, the recommenda- tions of an urban and regional development strategy inte- grated into the national economic deve10pment planning will be a logical initial step in the planning process guiding such economic development and the equity of economic growth and income distribution in the country. Nature of Development Strategies in the Planning Process In systematic development planning, the strategy can be defined as a large-scale perspective with an action scheme which, if fulfilled, can lead to obtaining a specific goal in long-range planning and deve10pment.2 In this planning, the development strategy must involve the preparation of a set of general statements of recommendations that define the direction and character of future development in relation to the established deve10pment objective and the means to achieve it. Therefore, the development strategy becomes an integral part of the development planning process, whether explicitly or implicitly expressed on the basis of any planning approach. However, only the planning process of the system planning approach will be examined to demonstrate such a purpose. System planning is an integration of the methods of system analysis with different stages of the planning process and may be described in the following manner: 132 1. Definition and clarification of current and future problems and the interrelationships among problems 2. Prediction of future trends and potential conditions arising from identifiable problems 3. Identification of parameters, boundary conditions, or constraints which determine the range of possible solutions to the totality of problems 4. Determination of goals, objectives at varying levels 5. Formulation of plan alternatives 6. Evaluation of quantitative and qualitative cost- effectiveness, and simulation of alternatives in the environment of the planning system in order to under- stand overall performance, as well as by-products and spill-over effects 7. Recommendation of alternatives for implementation of programs.3 The first three stages of the planning process involve delineating the development strategy for any develop- ment planning; whereas, the formulation of a long-range plan or policies plan covers the first four stages of the planning process. The middle-range plan, or development plan formula- tion, starts from the first stage through the sixth stage; then the development plan extends from the sixth stage to the seventh stage, which cover all the stages of the planning process, and the short-range plan or deve10pment programs and projects are formulated for implementation. Therefore, it is 133 evident that development strategy is not only an integral part of the total planning process in linking the long—range plan, middle-range plan, and short-range plan into a coherent entity, but it also sets the initial stages of the series of planning to provide the basis of the entire planning process at all levels of government. This applies to the integra- tion of an urban and regional development strategy into the national deve10pment level, which will be discussed in the following section. The deve10pment strategy of integrating urban and regional deve10pment planning into the national economic development planning allows the overall integration of global planning, sectoral planning, and urban and regional planning in a more concrete and coherent manner as well as their rela- tionships with the development objectives. This is shown in Figure 4.1. At a lower level of synthesis, urban and regional planning helps to bring the abstract thinking of global and sectoral planners to the ground. Because it represents a new and different level of synthesis it requires the formulation of policy objectives appropriate to its own level. The urban-regional frame provides for more than just a translation of global objectives into the language of concrete experience. Constituting a normative realm in its own right, it must be incorporated into the structure of objectives as these appear at global and sectoral levels of national planning. 134 Stages: 4F———-l % Problem Findings 2 Trends and Potentials Synthesis I---Global Planning ‘T National Planning 3 Sectoral Planning Development l T Strategies Synthesis II~ -Urban & Regional Planning 1T 4 Goals, Objectives, and Criteria 5 Formulation of Plan Alternatives 6 Evaluation of Alternatives 7 Plan Implementation Evaluation of Performance K—Feedback Remarks: Stages 1-3, development strategies process Stages 1-4, comprehensive policies plan (long-term plan) Stages 1-6, development plan (medium-term plan) Stages 1-7, development programs (short-term plans) Figure 4.1--Integration of Regional Urban Development into National Development Strategies and the Planning Process 135 In this connection, sectoral investments and related action programs can be taken into consideration in program planning, with increasing efficiency of resource utilization and an appropriate pattern of interregional and intra- regional locations, in order to arrive at the full benefits of the deve10pment objectives due to the comparative advan- tages of location. Therefore, such integration leads to focus on projects and programs to an even greater extent than in sectoral planning alone. It also enhances coordi- native relationships among projects and programs in particu- lar localities by linkages, multipliers, and efficiency considerations in investments, thus contributing to the implementation of national objectives. This concept would be useful in recommending such an integration development strategy in Thailand. Theory of_Urbanized Regions in National Economic Development Conceptually, the integration of urban and regional deve10pment planning into national economic development planning must be systematically incorporated into the struc- ture of the national development strategies to achieve the established deve10pment objectives of the country, particu- larly in terms of the equity of benefits of economic growth distribution. The national economy can, therefore, be strengthened through the integration of its several regional economies, which are composed of urban growth centers and 136 their corresponding hinterlands. In order to arrive at a deliberate delineation of such an integration deve10pment strategy and recommendations, it is essential to understand a number of basic elements, drawn from many sources, which can be interrelated to form a general conceptual framework. If the integration of an urban and regional develop- ment strategy at the national level is to be achieved, the core-regions or urban growth centers must be identified as a starting point for urban and regional development, not only in regional terms but also from a standpoint of national objectives. The concept of core region may be thought of as equivalent, in spatial terms, to the leading production sectors of an economy.4 The main idea underlying core regions for urban and regional development is that invest- ments should be concentrated in a small number of areas identified as having a high potential for economic growth. These areas are usually centered in cities of metropolitan size; and they are envisioned as locations for a planned pro- gram of coordinated investments in infrastructure and more directly productive activities which would be carried out over a period of time sufficient to permit the core economy to be pushed across the threshold of self-sustaining growth. At the same time, core-region development is a way of encouraging rural-urban immigration and of engendering structural changes in the countryside, as traditional agri- cultural practices are subjected to modernizing influences 137 in response to increased urban demands for the products of agricultural labor and rising labor costs. Another aspect of core-region deve10pment is a means of loosening the urban agglomeration so as to make it efficient econom- ically and more enjoyable humanly. In this way, the core- region system in the framework of urban and regional deve10p- ment seeks to facilitate and ease the trickle-down, and the spread mechanism may both speed the pace at which activities are decentralized from great urban nodes and, potentially, set up the prerequisites of competitive shifts that would favor the lagging regions. In this way, a corresponding rise of urbanization dispersion is inevitable; and its total impact is extremely positive in contributing a balanced economic growth in the nation. Because the development of core regions requires an intensified mobilization of resources, a corporate administrative structure is a necessity at all levels of government. It seeks to relate in some logical fashion the national policies and local needs, requirements, and opportunities into an integrated system of hierarchical planning; and it helps to reconcile the conflicting ob- jectives, requirements, and contraints of urban and region- al development and national deve10pment planning of the economy. At the same time, it seeks to coordinate every planning endeavor, development program, and individual investment project for implementation in both budgeting 138 and executing all levels of such an economic development. In addition, the advent of development planning requires political and administrative improvements of any government system, particularly in developing countries. The integration of an urban and regional development into national economic planning is very much part of the pro- cess which will allow pOpular participation in decision making. Consequently, political and administrative systems of the government at all levels must be able to under- take multifarious tasks involved in the formulation and execution of deve10pment plans, programs, and projects. An appropriate decentralization of the government system is logical in improving and strengthening local authorities which can be assisted by the national government in what- ever way is essential for fulfilling such deve10pment plan- ning. All of these concepts can be applied in Thailand. Theorypof Components and Procedures for Integrated Development Planning Since the integration of urban and regional deve10p- ment planning into national economic development planning is the framework for bridging the gaps between national deve10pment and local and regional development to improve the equity of economic growth distribution, such an integration must be part of national development strategies. Because of its comprehensiveness, components of integrated deve10pment planning will be useful in 139 providing guidelines for examinations of factors influ- encing Thai economic development, particularly the goven- ment system and economic development planning organization and procedure. Meanwhile, other consequential problems related to such a deve10pment will be noted. This will lead to recognition of future trends of various problems. In order to be systematic, a comprehensive view of the scope and substance and general procedure must be set out. Natural Resources and Ecosystems The concept of natural resources and ecosystems is relatively important to economic growth of a region as well as to the nation because natural resources and ecosystems make economic growth contingent upon initial resources and mutual reinforcement of linkage multiplier effects. The value of a resource is not intrinsic in the material but depends on the structure of demand, the current state of technology, the cost and access of trans- portation, and the social and political organization for transforming the raw material of nature into marketable commodities. However, development in a locality frequently results from a unique resource advantage which attracts capital and other factors of production, particularly in a developing country like Thailand. As the concept of natural resources has been broadened, resource conservation and use as well as deve10p- ment and protection are initiated, usually implying careful 140 use, especially concerning nonrenewable resources which are being depleted at a rate which is fast increasing. Another aspect involves extrernalities--resources which generate either directly or indirectly external effects on the other units such as air, land, water, as well as social and cultural attitudes. The study of these areas of natural resources and ecosystems in Thailand would lead to understanding how urban and rural development form local and national eco- nomies and their potentials for development. Based upon this,development strategy for integration of urban and regional planning in the national context can be re- commended. Since the role of natural resources and eco- systems is so broad and complex, it is impossible to attain all data available, particularly for a develOping country as Thailand. Pattern of Urbanization National economic development proceeds through different geographic arrangements: from rural to urban areas, a shift from agriculture to industry; from one or a few small urban-industrial centers and their surrounding regions to progressive regional decentralization of in- dustrial activities; and from dual economy to a single national market area. Unless the core of economic progress is considered, no effective urban and regional planning 141 can be done. Cities are usually considered as the centers of economic deve10pment: they affect economic patterns in the areas over which their influence extends, and, at the same time, they are affected by the growth which surrounds them. Similarly, the characteristics of the whole vast hinterland that surrounds the urban nucleus cannot be ignored because the characteristics of growth and the requirements of planning are determined by these also, in terms of natural resources and ecosystems. In this way, the core-region system, which consti- tutes a system of functionally interrelated core centers of regional economic development, is the key weapon in urban and regional development planning. The core-region system is structured in a loose hierarchy corresponding generally, but not exactly, to rank by population size. In addition to pOpulation size, economic factors which relate to production and market distribution of given core centers must be considered too. The hierarchical system of the core region can be defined on the basis of the size of population and the pattern of urbanization in the country. Moreover, the economic factors which relate to each city's growth and development can be described in terms of the access of transportation facilities to sources of supply and markets; of local market and production activities in these local areas; and other amenities and institutions. 142 Together they identify the country's core-region system for purposes of development strategy. Internal Migration Pattern Since the integration of urban and regional develop- ment planning with national economic development planning implies that the national economy be organized through its urban centers, each of which has social and economic func- tions in relation to its hinterlands, internal migration plays a significant role in moving the population from unpromising areas to zones of greater economic opportuni- ties. Therefore, the study of the internal migration in Thailand serves as a means for understanding the causes and effects of migration in guiding the volume and direc- tion of population movement and redistribution, particu- larly those of core-region economies of the country. In this way, the local economy of an existing urban agglomeration in a given region can be strengthened, or alternatively, rural-urban migration can be attracted to new urban-industrial or agro-industrial centers through planned development, drawing economic benefit from size. At the same time, further movement of pOpulation to already congested centers would be discouraged because of in- creasingly diminishing returns of the economy and un- desirable physical and social consequences. 143 Organizations and Development Planning In integrating urban and regional development planning with national economic development planning, there must be coordination between different sectors of the economy and urban and regional deve10pment plans, which must be comprehensively synthesized. There must also be coordination between different agencies of plan- ning and development at all levels of government in order to link plan formulation and implementation. Planning is not really planning unless it is effectively related to action programs and administration. This concept can be applied in studying the existing planning organization and procedures in Thailand. Therefore, planning organizations, planning process, and coordinating authorities must recommend a deve10pment strategy that will be adequate to meet the present and foreseeable problems of the country. Political and Administrative Systems of the Government As a matter of fact, the typical situation in developing countries such as Thailand is an extreme degree of centralization of political and administrative authori- ty. Consequently, the local self-government system is weak and ineffective. Economic development planning from above is often directly oriented toward the development of some special areas and a few big cities. Whatever develop- ment planning is undertaken from below is too often 144 conceived in terms of control by the central government. The conflicts produced by this pattern must be resolved, if only because at a certain point in the complexity of economic relations, further centralization tends to slow down rather than stimulate economic and social pro- gress. In countries where cultural regionalism is strong, like Thailand, pressures for decentralization are especial- ly severe and may pose a direct threat to national unity unless demands for greater autonomy are met. A sound assurance of the integration of urban and regional develop- ment planning into national economic development planning requires the mobilization of the various social groups to influence planning and development at all levels of government. Therefore, the key issues in administrative and political systems of the government of Thailand must be examined in order to recommend an integration develop- ment strategy which will engender the effective economic deve10pment of Thailand. All of these areas represent the comprehensive scope of study required for recommending an urban and regional development strategy and integrating them into national deve10pment. Summary and Conclusion The major weakness of most national economic development planning lies in the fact that the deve10pment 145 plan is carried on only in global and sectoral planning orientations. The pattern of the allocation of resources is made with little or no consideration of their locations. Consequently, this planning orientation creates dispari- ties in the benefits of economic growth distribution among regions of a country. These problems occur because of \\1ack of a systematic effort to integrate urban and regional development planning with national economic development planning. Strategies of national economic deve10pment are an integral part of the development planning process, linking long-range, middle-range, and short-range plans into a coherent whole. In this way, the integration of urban and regional development planning at the national level will affect the equity of economic growth distribu- tion. Conceptually, urban and regional deve10pment plan- ning at the national level is multifarious in nature. It is mainly concerned, in the spatial dimension, with the V/' interregional and intraregional flows of investments, goods and services, and people. It is closely linked to the system of cities and their hinterlands and working out efficient economic, social as well as spatial patterns of agricultural regions and industrial regions. At the same time, its advantages are focused on permitting the coordi- nation of sectoral planning and urban and regional planning, taking into account the spatial aspect of 146 economic development and on permitting the coordination between planning and deve10pment agencies at all levels of government. Furthermore, this planning deals with matters that are closer to the immediate concerns of peOple in terms of popular participation in planning and development. This participation improves capability of local authori- ties in their interface with national central government. Political and administrative systems of the government will be strengthened on the basis of a practicable decen- tralization. In this connection, the recommendations for the development strategy of integrating urban and regional development planning into national economic development planning should emphasize the study of natural resources and ecosystems, urbanization, and internal migration. Such a study would indicate growth centers of urban areas which have potentials for economic development as well as proximity to natural resources. Planning organization and procedures should also be emphasized. The Thai government system should be described in relation to the economic development of the country in political and administrative terms. In addition, other social, cultural, and pOpulation characteristics related to the Thai economic development should be discussed carefully. FOOTNOTES 1John Friedmann, Urbanization, Planning, and National Development (Beverly Hills: Sage Publications, 1973), p. 133. 2Max F. Millikan, A Strategy of Development (New York: Praeger Publications, 1973), p. 5. 3Anthony Cantonese, "System Planning: The Chal- lenge of the New Generation of Planners," Journal of Town and Country Planning, 103 (April, 1968), pp. 172- 176. Friedmann, Urbanization, Planning, and National Development, p. 141. 147 CHAPTER V DESCRIPTION OF COMPONENTS OF INTEGRATED DEVELOPMENT PLANNING IN THAILAND On the basis of the conceptual framework of the national development strategy for urban and regional development in Thailand, the elements and their substantive aspects will be examined. These involve natural resources and ecosystems, the pattern of urbanization and other factors related to the core-region system, the internal .migration pattern, development planning organization and procedure, and political and administrative systems of the government. In addition, other relevant factors which are concerned with a development context will be taken into account. These factors were described briefly in Chapter I in terms of geographic, social, cultural, and population characteristics as well as the historical development of the country. Natural Resources and Ecosystems The greatest natural resource of Thailand is its land, which has always been cultivated, as noted earlier, and is the economic foundation of the society and a basis of Thai life and behavior (see Figure 5.1). In the 148 149 Y IRMA ”:5 “”47“” . . HU£ Q§V:Jh( » ’ i! I” i M i .- » K i) 4 ' ' ‘ur ‘ ( h I :n 4 x "J . ' e j \X 1M x H g . mil} 7 5 4 ‘ l ‘ ‘ . 3“: \ \ .) i . y X "5 1. a" . 4 ‘V 5 - .. ' t‘w‘X ;é I ' l "I , a s, , Vim} To... THAuAND 1 1.4 [LGEN 5 ”59?: O I L S Lalosols and Luhosms on um am san asleeo h Ms M La'osols on plams and hi '5 Sa andy Fen rug-nous Laro K0 olsl m cnuellyo on p13 shalom mus ummrom I OD :la ClayS on fleally Hal alluwal pla-n Alluvual Soils A". ‘:'1 ! e ; " "zit—e‘er: r, MALAYA L._ I L——— —-—-—-—~ —"“. Figure 5.1--Soil Types of Thailand Source: Llewelyn Williams, Vegetation of Southeast Asia: Forest Types (Washington, D. c.: USDA, 1965). p. 107. 150 Northern region, the physiographic characteristics are generally defined by long forested mountain ridges with deep and fertile alluvial valleys. These valleys are drained by the tributaries of the Chao Phraya River. A substantial rice cultivation and other agricultural pro- ducts such as cotton, tobacco, and upland crops as well as fruits are supported on irrigated land. Paddy and fruits are the main products of the region's economy. Forestry and forest products are sent to both foreign and domestic markets. In addition, the region has some lignite, wolfram, tin, and low-grade coal deposits, as well as small oil reserves (see Figure 5.2). The main transportation system is by highways, railways, and water- ways. However, roads in rural areas are generally in poor condition. Energy is adequately supplied for most urban areas in the region by Bhumibhon Dam. Vast sections of the Northeastern region are unlike the rest of the country. It is composed primarily of the Korat Plateau with sandy and poorly drained soils; and the cultivation is further complicated by an inadequate water supply and a short rainy season. The region is a naturally depressed area whose economic growth problems are very difficult to resolve. A great portion of the region is covered with diciduous forests which form an important source of timber and firewood. Mineral deposits are very limited; and only rock salt deposits are found. 151 Figure 5.2--Mineral Resources of Thailand Source: NEDB, National Economic Development Plan, 1967-1971 (Bangkok: 1967), p. 121. GULF 0} TH AILA.\I) . TI, ( ~’1- 04,) ’3'" ' GULF OF T 7 u"). ' “I, . ii = '1’ . O I, . “\ f o 1 u... s. \ . ‘ r“‘_q/ I '17:." (l ’ m . X k . s ' I 331/3 Y @al-flp‘ a)“ b ‘0 39% 4- .. “(V’— ~ . I z. ‘ ,- ,\ ‘ x. C. WJDIIQ‘Q :3.“ ‘ CAMBODIA uuuiiumt mud un' MAP OI TH :\II.AND mo“ INC MINERAL RISOUKLIS bl‘..50 50 )0" l5!) 200Kn "route DI'OSIIS. IIOPUCING MINQS,LIAND.°'N(D “*5 Q ASIESIOS 5 mm a “mu e mucmtse Q1], omouun G non-own» a) on sun (2 up. 0 on sun 0 wounm . nan-12 J but (9 9°“ 0 sum» G Anmonv 0 HUOIH! 0 cont: Ion m! 0 cow 0 am 5704! I MINING coucnsvons 153 Water for most of the region's areas is provided by tank irrigation and a few dams. However, these dams are pri- marily used for power energy. Despite these adverse con- ditions, the agricultural sector is the main support of the region's economy, but it has a very low productivity. Forestry and forest products, livestock, paddy, and other crops are the main attribures of this depressed region's economy. The transportation system consists of highways and railways with limited waterways. However, highways and rural roads are not adequate, particularly on the eastern portion of the region. Although a few dams are used for power energy, only larger towns in the region have adequate service. In contrast to the Northeastern region, the Central region is a great alluvial plain, bisected by the Chao Phraya River and crisscrossed by its bributaries as well as by innumerable conals. This area contains about 50 percent of all cultivated land in the country and almost a continuous rice paddy in the midst of the region. With a relatively little effort and the employment of only the simplest of agricultural technology, this vast plain produces the largest rice crOps in the country. Rubber and cassava are the main products of the eastern portion of the region; forestry and forest products come from the western and eastern areas of the region. Inland and marine fisheries, livestock, and marine salt industries are also 154 important to the region's economy. There are various mineral deposits such as tin, fluoride, and iron in the region. Irrigation, power energy, and transportation and communication systems of this region are relatively better than in any region in the country. Without the inclusion of the GBM's economy, agricultural products dominate the region's GDP, particularly paddy and other crops (see Figure 5.3). The Southern region is relatively mountainous and wealthy in natural resources. Although it contains only narrow valleys and limited cultivable areas along the eastern sea coast, the coastal plain produces major quanti— ties of rubber products, rice, coconut, and fruits. The forests have also valuable timber resources; and there are rich tin deposits and wolfram reserves that are the main product of the mining and quarrying sector of the economy of the country as well as the area. The marine fishing industry is also extensive. These are the main products of the region's economy. The economic productivity is relatively equal to that of the Central region and compara- tively better than those of the Northern and Northeastern regions. Since southern Thailand has a more regular rain- fall than other regions of the country, its need for irrigation is less urgent. Problems of flood control and drainage are, however, greater. The transportation system is mainly served by railways and highways. Inland waterways 155 Figure 5.3--Economic Resources of Thailand Source: McMillan and Co., Ltd., Atlas of Southeast Asia, (London: 1964), p. 42. 156 "Nadir. * V624 é: Agricultural Products . RIce (wuh cat t.I-e bullalo- and pr;- rauing Bean: (groundnut mung bean xoya bean) - Orchard E////// Saltevaporatvon l " Elephant: E Fishmg [round Agricultural Products - Cotton E] Sugar cane g Rubber E] Cassava Cloth and cotton Industnex O Sugar hctory 0 Tap-on 'Iclory Agricultural Products I Seale1 : 16.000.000 Fiber: (jute. kenaf, kapott. ramle) 2' Mann m Tobacco _ [5 Coconut Tobacco lactory a ‘ Gunny xa<|t factory m Ten; 1, ran; (Shorea obtuta. P:ntacme siamenm) -ya (Dipterocarpux lpp) E Bark mangrove y/A Bamboo A Paper mill w Gamboge { 6) w Cinnamon (C) G Senxomflum ben'amm) . Li: and la: teed 157 are very limited, but ocean waterways are primarily im- portant for frieght transportation in both domestic and international services. Generally, road conditions are poor in the rural areas. Pattern of Urbanization Thailand, like other developing countries in South- east Asia, is one of the least urbanized countries of the world. As shown in Table 5.1, the percentage of distribu- tion of urban population in the country was approximately 9.9 percent in 1947; these figures increased to 12.5 per— cent in 1960, and to 15.7 percent in 1970. Regarding such urban pOpulation distribution by regions, the Central region led all regions in constituting urban population distribu- tion from 1947 through 1970. In 1947, the Central region constituted about 64 percent of the country's urban popu- lation, compared to less than 14 percent of the rest of the regions. By 1970, these figures were 70.6 percent of the Central region to approximately 10 percent of each of other regions. However, the GBM, in the Central region alone constituted approximately 45.1 percent of the national urban pOpulation in 1947 and increased to almost 56 percent in 1970, as shown in Table 5.2. The comparison of urban and rural population growth rates (see Table 5.1) shows that the annual average growth rates of the urban pOpulation in all regions as well as Table 5.1-~Percentage Distribution of Urban and Rural POpulation and Percentage Changes in Inter- censal Periods by Regions 158 ——— fi J I Time Region Nation Central Eggth- North South Percent of region's urban pOpulation 1947 9.9 21.1 3.1 6.2 9.1 1960 12.5 27.4 3.5 6.4 10.0 1970 15.7 35.8 4.3 7.1 12.7 Distribution of urban population by region 1947 100.0 64.0 11.0 13.6 11.4 1960 100.0 69.2 9.5 11.2 10.1 1970 100.0 70.6 9.6 9.8 10.0 Distribution of rural pOpulation by region 1947 100.0 26.4 38.3 22.8 12.5 1960 100.0 25.3 37.7 24.4 12.6 1970 100.0 25.1 37.5 24.6 12.8 Average annual percentage increase, urban 1947-60 5.0 5.5 3.8 3.6 3.9 1960-70 4.8 4.9 4.6 3.0 4.3 Average annual percentage increase, rural 1947-60 3.0 2.5 2.8 3.4 3.1 1960-70 3.1 3.0 3.1 3.3 3.3 Source: Computed from Population Censuses: 1947, 1960, 1970. 159 .omms pom .ooas .mvms mo momsmcoo c0suwssmom Scum Cousmeou «mummmw mocmmsonu Ga .Hmnfisz u m m.e e.s m.m m.m s.em s.sm o.m swoon m.m m.m m.ms v.m~ e.em m.ew m.m I o.m m.m m.m m.ms m.mm m.mm m.ms m.vs I e.es o.m s.s s.e m.ss m.ss e.e m.ms I e.ms e.e m.m s.m m.ms m.m m.m m.mm I e.em m.m m.m m.m s.em m.m m.e m.mm I e.em m.m m.m II m.m m.e II m.mc I o.ov e.s o.~ II m.e m.e II m.em I e.em m.s II II m.e II II m.mm I e.ms II II s.mv II II m.e m.mmm I e.emh m.mm m.mm II m.e m.e II Ho>o pom o.ooo.s e.ees e.ees e.ees e.ees e.ees e.ees ucmosmm oeem.e ome~.m meme.s ess ess ess moossmssooo e macho cons: Had cums omms moms cums owms moms Amocmmsonu as c0suwssmom cans: mmmu< cans: wwmwuwwsmmmw mo acmusnssumso mo COHDDQHHumHo . comm mo ousm an .mCOsuMHomom can“: pom pond conga mo wooeusnmuumso momucmoummllm.m manna 160 the country as a whole exceeded those of the rural pOpu- lation during the two periods, 1947-60 and 1960-70, with the exception of the Northern region in the latter period. The Central region led all regions in urban population growth rates with about 5.5 percent during the period 1947- 60, and almost 5.0 percent during the period 1960-70. The growth rate of the Northern region decreased from 3.6 percent to 3.0 percent. However, the level of urban pOpu- lation growth rates of the country was influenced by that of the GBM, which had the largest proportion in the national urban population distribution, almost 55 percent of the distribution with a growth rate of 7.5 percent during the period 1960-70, as shown in Table 5.2 and Table 5.3. Regional urban areas had a small growth rate in the national urban pOpulation. Most of all, the GBM continued to dominate in the Central region as well as in the country as a whole, having the tOp position in the country's urban hierarchy, as evidenced by statistical data tabulations of the size of urban areas between 750,000 and over during the period 1947-70. Those figures reflect the changing level of the urbanization of the GBM alone. In this way, the process of the urbanization of Thailand was mainly characterized by the primacy of the GBM, although the next twelve urban centers showed some population growth, as shown in Table 5.3, but with less than 5.1 percent of the rate. 161 Table 5.3--Thirteen Largest Urban Places in Thailand, 1960 and 1970 Growth Urban Places Population POpulation Rate/Year and Region in 1970 in 1960 1960-70 (Percent) The GBM (C) 2,976,655 1,703,356 7.5 Chiangmai (N) 85,729 65,736 3.1 Nakhon Ratchsima (NE) 66,071 44,218 4.9 Hat Yai (S) 47,953 35,504 3.5 Udonthani (NE) 46,686 30,884 5.1 Nakhon Sawan (N) 45,851 34,947 3.2 Chonburi (C) 42,141 32,495 3.2 Songkhla (8) 41,193 31,014 3.3 Lampang (N) 41,077 30,486 3.3 Pittsnulok (N) 40,725 30,364 3.4 Nakhon Sithammarat (S) 40,671 27,919 4.7 Ubon Ratchthani (NE) 40,650 27,222 4.9 Ayuthaya (C) 40,104 30,368 3.2 Sources: Thailand Population Censuses, 1960 and 1970. 162 In constructing the hierarchical system of the core-region of Thailand, the thirteen largest urban centers, as municipal units, are being chosen for examinations on the baSis of population size, economic activities, trans- portation systems, and social and physical facilities. This would lead to initial advantages in identifying the urban centers that have the potentials for future economic growth as the key to economic development. As shown in Table 5.3, there were thirteen urban centers which contained a population of more than 40,000 persons, including the GBM, among 119 cities of the country in 1970. The importance of these urban centers in relation to their hinterlands in each region will be discussed (see Figure 5.4). Among twenty-six urban centers of the Northern region, there were four cities which had a population of more than 40,000 in 1970, notably Chiangmai, Nakhon Sawan, Lampang, and Pittsanulok. Chiangmai and Lampang are centers of the upper part of the region; whereas, Nakhon Sawan and Pittsanulok are centers in the lower part of the region. Chiangmai is situated on the bank of the Ping River and covers approximately 7.2 square miles. The size of its pOpulation was approximately 65,736 persons in 1960 and increased to 85,729 persons in 1970. Chiangmai has been the capital of northern Thailand for nearly 700 years. It is the second largest city in Thailand, next to the GBM. Because it is the terminus of the railroad, the 163 Figure 5.4——Urbanization of Thailand Source: Adapted from Thailand POpulation Census of 1970. 164 I69 70' - Unuadu. " .L“. MhOfl Phenom NORTH s, (46 656) o M O SuthIhfl. " ’0 s . Sm NIMOH 1“. 4 . " " ‘ \ ———"""“"“°@-~——~ 3 -——,7; 5“ NORTHEAST PhoIchabun m.m To... K Kamp‘v'uonu PhoI 0 thhot. . 'l . O damn I Mam Sarakham ' o \‘ .80: El .4 P \ ChOQVODhllm $29.91.“)- 4---..3‘3j4‘3‘ . .1 ~j 5 r. .j ‘ Uthaa Than...“ / ‘ "' .. 1“: Ubon acting: . \ O r\ SI Se Kat . u “ r-elchaINat“~~ '\ '0‘ Banana: ~ /’ 05"“ 8"“ ' W . .Sunn M (hone Q ' ' I 4 CW 9"". Pathum TM. Konchanabun . Nonthobufl Nd‘hdn PattT'Ig‘TOB . f _. ~‘ n on ,. Rolohatwn 0 .05. p,“ ( .. 9 7e- é .. . SUBUWNOM 5'00"): honBurJ Phatchabun. ' - 1' 4 I . ‘CE NTA mm WWW. VII! Proofing Khan Khan PROVINCES r s \ '0. I I I‘Root Node ‘°‘ \ \ _ / © Provincial Clonal ( o a 89PM ’1‘ for :00 um . Hat Va). (47 9:7? _" ”P . .. -1- van. Mammal. 165 junction of highways and air transportation, it becomes the center of transportation of goods and services nearby. It is also the center of commercial enterprises and trade in rich agricultural products. The area is also famous for its cottage industries. There are several government public services, sites of several educational institutions and a university, and sites of historical interests and natural scenic areas for tourists. Lampang is located about 60 miles southward of Chiangmai and covers an area of approximately 4 square miles on the bank of the Wang River. The city contained 41,077 residents in 1970. It is on a junction of highways going to Chiangmai and the northeastern portion of the region. It is also served by the Northern Railway and airway. The area is the market, commercial, and transpor- tation center for agricultural products and minerals such as lignite, gypsum, antimony, and lead. Weaving indus- tries are also practiced. Because it is an historical town as Chiangmai, there are many sites of historical interest. It is the seat of the provincial administrative center with public service facilities and educational facilities. The second largest city in the Northern region is Nakhon Sawan, located in the lower part of the region, approximately 200 miles north of the GBM. The city covers an area of about 4 square miles; and its population was al- most 46,000 population in 1970. It is situated on the 166 headwaters of the Chao Phraya River. Served by highways, the Northern Railway, and the airway in linking the Northern region to the Central region, the city has more transportation systems and commercial and trading activi- ties in agricultural products. The main industries in the area are timber and boat building and mills. It is the site of several public service facilities as well as educational institutions. Pittsanulok city is located in the upper part of the lower portion of the Northern region, approximately 100 miles north of Nakhon Sawan, and occupies an area of about 3 square miles along the bank of the Nan River. By 1970, its pOpulation was about 40,725. It is a communica- tion and transportation center for air, rail and highways, which makes it a center of commercial and trading activi- ties in agricultural products. There are also several timber industries and many small industrial installations in the area. More importantly, the East-West Highway connects the Northern region with the Northeastern region from Pittsanulok to Khonkaen. This helps to support the economic activities of the city in commercial, trading, and transportation systems. The city also provides several public service facilities and educational institutions. In the Northeastern region, there were only three urban centers that had a population of more than 40,000 by 1970, namely Nakhon Ratchsima, Udonthani, and Ubon 167 Ratchthani. Nakhon Ratchsima is the largest city in the Northeastern region and ranks third in the country, next to Chiangmai. It is situated at the edge of the Korat Plateau, the southewestern part of the region, and is approximately 200 miles from the GBM. Although the city covers an area of about 2 square miles, its population was 66,071 persons in 1970. It is the transportation cross- roads, a focal point of railways, highways, and the airway of the region, which links northeast Thailand with the GBM and the Central region. In this way, it is the gateway to the Northeastern region as a collection and distribution center in commercial and trading activities in agricul- tural products. There are several weaving industries and earthenware manufactures in the area. Educational institu- tions and other government facilities of various agencies are also located there. The City of Udonthani is the second largest city in the region and is located on the upper part of the Korat Plateau, the northwestern portion of the region, and is approximately 60 miles, across the Mekong River, from the Laotian capital of Veintiane and 260 miles north of Nakhon Ratchsima. It occupies an area of about 3 square miles. There were approximately 46,686 residents who lived in the city in 1970. It is the center of the transportation system of the northern part of the region, served by the Northeastern Railway, Friendship Highway, and airway. 168 There are many commercial and business enterprises as well as trading activities in agricultural products. It is also the area which engages in a number of small industrial enterprises such as salt lick, handicraft, and mills. Besides being the seat of the provincial administrative center, many educational and other public service facili- ties are available there. Ubon Ratchthani is the third largest city in the region and is located in the easternmost part of the country, the southeastern part of the region on the bank of the Mun River, which merges into the Mekong River. The city has an area of approximately 2 square miles; and by 1970, it had a pOpulation of about 41,000 inhabitants. Because it is the terminus of a railway, the junction point of highways and the airway which connects to Nakhon Ratchsima, approximate- ly 250 miles in distance, it is the center of commercial, market, and trading activities in agricultural products of the southeastern portion of the region. The timber indus- try is very important because of rich forests nearby, particularly at the southern part of the region by Cambodia. Several educational and other public service facilities are provided in the city. The Central region has more urban centers than other regions, with 47 cities. By 1970, there were, how- ever, only three urban centers that had a population of more than 40,000 persons, including the GBM. Chonburi 169 and Ayuthaya ranked second and third respectively next to the leading GBM in the region. As evidenced by the earlier discussion, the GBM is the largest urban center and the focal point of the political, social, cultural, and economic vitality. It is the capital of the country. It is also the center of physical deve10pment, particularly of economic infrastructures, and the gateway to the domestic and international world. In this way, it is not surprising that the GBM alone leads all regions of the country in economic production and industrialization, particularly in manufactures, social services, commerce, transportation and communications, construction, and energy. The rest of the country has underdeveloped conditions. All urban centers of the country are overwhelmingly superseded by the GBM in terms of the pOpulation size, as shown in Table 5.3. The City of Ayuthaya is located at the confluence of the Chao Phraya, LOpburi, and Pasak Rivers, about 50 miles north of the GBM. It occupies an area of about 6.5 square miles. It was the old capital of Thailand during the period 1350-1767. In 1970, it had a population of about 40,104 persons. With waterways, a railway and high- way junction, it is very important in transportation, particularly as a river port center of inland waterways, in market and trading as well as marketing agricultural products for the northern area of the region. Several 170 small industrial installations as well as home industries are located in the city. There are several public service facilities and educational institutions besides the seat of the provincial administrative center. It is also a tourist center. Chonburi City is situated on the east coast of the Gulf of Thailand, almost 60 miles southeast of the GBM, and covers an area of about 2 square miles. Its population was approximately 42,141 in 1970. It is the center of a transportation system, connecting all eastern provinces of the Central region to the GBM by the Eastern Highway. At the same time, there is a port for large ocean-going vessels located nearby at Sichang Island for moving cargoes to the GBM and the mainland. It is also the center of commercial and trading activities of domestic agricultural products and foreign goods. At the same time, there are many manufacturing industries which are located nearby the city such as pretolium refining and processing plants for sugar cane and cassava as well as timber and salt-fish industries. Besides its well-known seaside resorts located nearby, there are many schools and a few colleges as well as government service facilities in the area. There are 25 urban centers in the Southern region. Among them, there were only three urban centers that had a population slightly more than 40,000 persons in 1970: Hat Yai, Songkhla, and Nakhon Sithammarat. Hat Yai is 171 located in the center of the lower part of the Southern region, in the Province of Songkhla and about 20 miles west of the City of Songkhla, with an area of 2 square miles. By 1970, there were about 47,953 people in the city. It is the largest city in the region and the fourth largest city in the country, next to Nakhon Ratchsima. As the center of the transportation system, which is served by the Southern Railway, highway juntions, and the airway, it is the head- quarters of trading, commercial and business activities, with numerous overseas firms, with wealthy agricultural products and mining industries such as rubber, timber, fisheries, tin, and wolfram. It is also the gateway to Malaysia and Singapore. Municipal service facilities and several schools are available in there. Songkhla is situated on the east coast of the region, at the Gulf of Thaland, with an area of about 3 square miles. Its population was almost 42,000 in 1970. The activities of Songkhla are similar to those of Hat Yai. However, its primary impotance is the ocean transportation for moving goods to the GBM and Malaysia and Singapore because of the main seaport for the oceangoing vessels located there. Unlike Hat Yai, Songkhla is a seaside resort area which attracts tourists. In addition, it is the seat of the provincial administrative center, with several public service facilities, schools, and the University of Songkhla. 172 Nakhon Sithammarat is the oldest city in the Southern region and was the capital of southern Thailand during the period 1238-1767. It is located near the east coast of the upper part of the region, approximately 150 miles north of Hat Yai, and covers an area of about 2 square miles. Almost 41,000 people lived in the city in 1970. Access to the city is provided by the Southern Railway, highways, and an airway. The city is the center of commercial, trading, and transportation activities in agricultural products, such as rubber, fisheries, rice, and others, as well as in mining industries such as tin and wolfram. It is also the center of the production of cottage industries and of archeological treasures. Be- sides being the administrative center of the province, the city is provided with several schools and a college as well as public service facilities. Internal Migration Pattern In Thailand, population censuses prior to the 1960 census were designed with very little attention to gathering information on the internal migration in the country. It is, therefore, impossible to study the inter- nal migration in scientific terms because of the lack of adequately available data. However, a short report on the pattern of the internal migration in Thailand during the period 1948-56 was conducted by Dr. Adul Wichiencharoen1 173 in 1959. His report was based on the 1956 National Demographic and Economic Survey of Thailand and revealed that approximately 92.5 percent of the total internal migration moved a short distance within the same administra- tive region, in terms of intraregional migration. It shoud be noted that the boundaries of the administrative regions that had been used for this report were the same as those used in this dissertation. Using the data from the 1960 and 1970 pOpulation censuses permits identification of two sets of five- year migrants, 1956-60 migrants of the 1960 census and 1966-70 migrants of the 1970 census, facilitating study of the internal migration in the country. On the basis of five-year residence criteria, a five-year migrant is the person who lives in a province different from that in which he resided five years prior to the census. Although this type of data has some defects inherent in migration statistics, compounded by the problems associated with census taking in a developing country like Thailand, the migration is measured as movement between provinces. However, using the population growth rates and the natural increasing rates of the population of the municipal areas (urban areas) and nonmunicipal areas (rural areas) of each region gives some insights into the interrelation between the migration and pOpulation growth, particularly of the urbanization. 174 In view of the pattern of the internal migration in Thailand, it is possible to classify it into three types: the interregional migration; the intraregional migration; and the migration to and from the GBM. The GBM is the only urban area that has the available quantitative recorded data for exploring inmigrants and outmigrants in relation to the other four regions of the country. As shown in Table 5.4, there were approximately 826,755 persons as five-year migrants, during the period 1956-60, in the country. The interregional migrants con- stituted only 26.1 percent of the total five-year migrants and accounted for 215,984 persons; whereas, the rest were the intraregional migrants who constituted approximately 73.9 percent of the total internal migrants or about 610,771 persons. By 1970, the total five- year migrants, during the period 1966-70, increased to 2,253,789 persons for the whole kingdom; and the intra- regional migrants still had a large prOportion constituting almost 77.0 percent compared to 23.0 percent of inter- regional migrants. This implies that the migration move- ment was mainly prevalent within each particular region during the past two periods. 175 Table 5.4--Volume and Percentage Distribution of Inter- regional and Intraregional Migration and of Intraregional Inmigration (Interregional and Intraregional Migration) by Regions 1956-60 Migration 1966-70 Migration Region Number Percent Number Percent Whole Kingdom: 826,775 100.0 2,253,778 100.0 Interregional Migration 215,984 26.1 520,625 23.1 Intraregional Migration 610,771 73.9 1,733,163 76.9 Interregional Migration: A 215,984 100.0 520,625 100.0 Central 100,887 46.7 257,765 49.5 Northeast 25,846 12.0 100,182 19.2 North 63,495 29.4 120,031 23.1 South 25,756 11.9 42,647 8.2 Intraregional Migration: B 610,771 100.0 1,733,163 100.0 Central 281,079 46.0 809,387 46.7 Northeast 180,286 29.5 481,819 27.8 North 90,968 14.9 265,174 15.3 South 58,708 9.6 176,783 10.2 Total Inmigration: (A+B) (A+B) B/A+B (A+B) B/A+B Whole Kingdom 826,775 73.9 2,253,778 76.9 Central 381,966 73.6 1,067,152 75.8 Northeast 206,132 87.5 582,001 82.8 North 154,463 58.9 385,205 68.8 South 84,464 69.5 219,430 80.6 Source: Computed from Thailand POpulation Censuses of 1960 and 1970. 176 Interregional Migration Table 5.5 and Table 5.6 show the volume and per- centage distribution of interregional migrants by regions; the net exchanges of the interregional migration inter- actiontw'regions are shown in Table 5.7. As evidenced from these tabulations, by 1960 the Central region ranked first in gaining net migrants of about 28,693 persons; and the Northern and Southern regions also had substantial gains in net migrants. All of these net migration gains were attributed to the net migration loss of the Northeastern region. In 1970, the pattern of the interregional mi- gration exchanges was not much different from that of 1960. However, the Southern region lost in net migrants, particu- larly to the Central region. The Northeastern region continued to have the highest loss in net migrants to all regions of the country. It should be noted that the magnitude of inmigra- tion and outmigration streams of the interregional migra- tion pattern seemed to be relatively associated with the distance and particularly with the location of the Central region. The Central region had high magnitudes of in- migration and outmigration flows; whereas, the other peri- pheral regions surrounding the Central region had relatively decreasing magnitudes of migration flows. Table 5.5—-Volume and Percentage of Distribution of Interregional Migration, 177 1956-60, by Regions \\\.Out- Region of Origin migrants Total mggrants Migrants Central Zigth- North South Region of Destination: 215,984 73,673 85,532 40,167 16,612 Central 100,887 -- 52,645 33,780 14,462 Northeast 25,846 19,638 -- 4,888 1,320 North 63,495 36,738 25,927 -— 830 South 25,756 17,297 6,960 1,499 -- A: Real Number 100.0 34.1 39.6 18.6 7.7 Central 46.7 -- 24.4 14.6 6.6 Northeast 12.0 9.1 -- 2.3 0.6 North 29.4 17.0 11.9 -- 0.5 South 11.0 8.0 3.3 0.6 -- B: Percent I ‘ Source: Computed from Thailand Population Census, 1960. 178 Table 5.6—-Volume and Percentage of Distribution of Interregional Migration, 1966-70, by Regions migrants Total Region of Origin mggrants Migrants Central N::::- North South Region of Destination: 520,625 169,272 185,188 113,691 52,474 Central 257,765 -- 129,749 83,786 44,230 Northeast 100,182 69,238 -- 26,130 4,814 North 120,031 72,681 43,920 —- 3,430 South 42,647 27,353 11,519 3,775 -- A: Real Number 100.0 32.5 35.6 21.8 10.1 Central 49.5 —- 24.9 16.1 8.5 Northeast 19.2 13.3 -- 5.0 0.9 North 23.1 14.0 8.4 -- 0.7 South 8.2 5.2 2.3 0.7 -- B: Percent Source: Computed from Thailand P0pu1ation Census, 1970. 179 Table 5.7--Net Exchange of Interregional Migration by Regions Region of Origin Region of Total Destination Migrants Central North- North South east A: Time: 1956-60 Central 28,693 -- 33,007 -1,479 -2,835 North- east -59,686 -33,007 -- -21,039 -5,640 North 21,849 1,479 21,039 -- -669 South 9,144 2,835 5,640 699 -- B: Time: 1966-70 Central 88,493 -- 60,511 11,105 16,877 North- east -85,006 -60,511 -- -17,790 -6,705 North 6,340 -11,105 17,790 -- -345 South -9,827 -16,877 6,705 345 -- Source: Computed from Thailand Population Censuses of 1960 and 1970. 180 Intraregional Migration As discussed earlier, the intraregional migration in Thailand was more pervasive than the interregional mi- gration during the two periods of five-year migrants: 1956- 60 and 1966-70. The tabulation in part B of Table 5.4 indicate that, in 1960 there were approximately 610,711 intraregional migrants in the country; and they were dis- tributed unevenly with 46.0 percent in the Central region, 29.5 percent in the Northeastern region, 14.9 percent in the Northern region, and 9.6 percent in the Southern region. By 1970, the intraregional migrants in- creased to 1,733,163 persons; and only the Northern region had fewer intraregional migrants, 27.8 percent of the total intraregional migrants. Other regions had slight increases. In part A+B of the same Table, the tabulation of ratios of intraregional migrants over the total migrants (intraregional and interregional migrants), show that the intraregional migration was increasingly predominant in the Central, Northern, and Southern regions during the previous two periods. Only the Northeastern region had an increasing movement in terms of interregional migration. Migration to and from the GBM The GBM, the capital of Thailand, was the pre- dominant center of the internal migration interaction in the country during the two periods of five-year migrants: 181 1956-60 and 1966-70. Table 5.8 shows the pattern of migration distribution to and from the GBM and the net exchange of such a migration interaction, by regions of origin and destination. The tabulation indicate that there were approximately 127,495 inmigrants who moved into the GBM between 1956-60 and increased to 298,911 persons between 1966-70. These inmigrants to the GBM constituted almost 60.0 percent of the total internal migrants in the country in both periods. Despite the high magnitude of inmigration streams into the GBM from the other four re- gions, the outmigration stream from the GBM to those re- gions was also quite substantial in magnitude. In considering the pattern of migration to and from the GBM in both periods, it was evident that the 1970 pattern was similar to that of 1960, but the magnitude of migration flows and the net exchange of migration inter- action of the 1970 pattern was more prevalent than of the 1960 pattern. In the meantime, the distance between the GBM and the other four regional locations seemed to characterize the magnitude of migration flows to and from the GBM. As indicated by the same tabulation, the Central region led all regions in contributing its net loss of migrants to the GBM with approximately 58.6 percent of the total net gain in migrants of the GBM by 1960. However, the same figure decreased to 40.5 percent by 1970 because 182 .onma can coma mo momsmcmu :oHumHsmom osmaflmna Sony omnnmfioo umwmmmm o.ooa emm.mba o.ooH Ham.mm~ o.ooa emm.o~a Hobos e.s ~mm.- m.m mm~.m~ m.ma men.ma nuaom m.m ~mm.¢a m.ma mmm.mm m.ma mmm.a~ nuuoz e.ma mvm.mm «.mm mam.mm e.sm mum.mm ummmnuuoz m.mm mmm.naa m.mm mv~.oma m.ee won.mq Hmuucmo onlowma «mafia o.ooa mom.mm o.ooa mmv.s~a o.ooa mma.~o Hmuoe m.ea Hom.m m.e nom.m m.e mem.~ nusom m.ea vmm.m m.HH eeo.ma . m.m cam.m :uuoz H.4H mo~.m o.H~ qnh.o~ m.em mom.na ummmsuuoz H.Hm mam.mm m.mm osm.mh m.mm H~¢.mm Hmuucwo oouomma "mafia ucmoumm uwnfisz ucmoumm Hmnfisz usmoumm Hmnfidz soammm zmo on» some zmo may 09 xzmov wocmnoxm umz mcoflmmm ha .zmo on» Eoum can on .mucmumflz Hmmwlm>flm mo mmcmsoxm umz can :oHuanHumHa mmmucmouwm can mEsHo>Ium.m magma 183 of the increasing migration to the GBM from the Northern and Southern regions. Factors Related to Migration Despite the effort in delineating and identifying types of internal migration in Thailand, it is essential to clarify their interrelationships as well as the causes of migration patterns that would be useful in economic devel- Opment planning. A number of factors affecting internal migration have been indicated as reasons for migration in Thailand. In 1962, the International Labor Office2 reported that the factors in both of donor system (places of origin) and host system (places of destination) operated as causes of migration in Thailand. Among these factors in the donor system were the need for land, shortage of water, sterile soil and land tenure, and the absence of industries in rural areas. In the meantime, the factors in the host system were seasonal needs for farm laborers, wage differentials, inducement of friends and relatives, and desire for fertile land, and the need for further edu- cation, particularly in the GBM. However, no statistical breakdown of the comparative weight of these factors was provided. In 1957 Marian R. Meinkoth3 interviewed Northeastern migrants into the GBM regarding reasons for migration. The report revealed that almost 80 percent were looking for 184 work and 15 percent gave the reasons of the lack of food or inability to grow rice at home. In 1967, a study of the migrants in the Kamphangpet resettlement area was con- ducted by Chamriang Phavichitr.4 The report pointed out that economic factors, particularly in agricultural produc- tion, were the main reasons for migration. This conclusion was similar to that of a study by Chapman and Allen5 in relation to migration in Thailand in 1965. The study reported that the opportunities for more productive crop- ping, particularly in irrigated land of government pro- jects, were the reasons for inmigration to the area. In 1969, the longitudinal survey of social, economic, and demographic change in Thailand was undertaken by the Institute of Population Studies,6 Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok. This report indicated that more than 50 percent of the migrants who moved into the GBM and other provincial urban areas made decisions in migration relating primarily to economic factors. Such economic factors were related to employment. Besides economic factors, other relatively important factors, were continuing study, par- ticularly in the GBM, by following relatives or friends and marriage, better standard of living. Therefore, economic factors were very important in relation to the internal migration in Thailand during the previous two periods. 185 The Pattern of Migration and Economic Development The role of internal migration, particularly in terms of interregional and intraregional migration, in relation to economic development in Thailand is very diffi— cult to indicate because of lack of the available specific data. However, this can be roughly facilitated by taking into account the factors related to migration and the rates of population growth and natural increase of the population especially in those of urban areas. Table 5.3 shows the population growth rates of the thirteen largest cities in Thailand during the period 1960-70. In addition, the natural increase in growth rate of the urban area (the municipal area), during the period 1964-65 is shown in Table 5.9. As evidenced by the tabulation of Table 5.3, the GBM had a striking rate of population growth of about 7.5 percent compared less than 5.1 percent of the next twelve largest cities of the country. Given the growth rate of natural increase of all urban populations to be equal to 2.4 percent, as shown in Table 5.9, it is not surprising that the GBM's population growth rate was the largest because of interregional migration and intraregional mi- gration from the Central region, as indicated by the previous measurements of migration to and from the GBM in relation to the four regions of the country. If this inter- pretation was correct, the population growth rates of the 186 Table 5.9--Crude Birth Rate, Crude Death Rate, and Natural Increase Rate by Regions, 1964-65 Region nggg figgth ngfig 3:?th iiiggglgiié Whole Kingdom 4.18 1.09 3.1 North 4.37 1.24 3.1 Northeast 4.35 1.14 3.2 Central 3.97 1.04 2.9 South 4.09 0.86 3.2 Municipal Area 2.99 0.56 2.4 Nonmunicipal Area 4.32 1.13 3.2 Source: Adapted from the Survey of Population Change, 1964-1965, National Statistical Office, Bangkok, Thailand, 1967. 187 next twelve largest cities of the country would have been less influenced by the interregional and intraregional migration. In this connection, the higher net gain and the higher net loss in relation to the interaction of the interregional and intraregional migration would have been associated with the interrural migration. If this inter- pretation is held true, the major determinant to the pattern of internal migration in Thailand would be characterized by interrural migrants, particularly within the migration regions, for agricultural opportunities in the irrigated deve10pment areas. At the same time, the other pattern of the internal migration in the country would be characterized by the metropolitanization, migration to and from the GBM for the opportunities in nonagricultural employment, and for other social values. Deve10pment Planning and Agencies In Thailand, planning agencies for economic deve1- 0pment may be classified into two categories-~central and local planning agencies. At the national level, as discussed in Chapter III, the NEDB is the national central planning agency for economic development of the country, under the supervision of the NEDB Executive Commit- tee and attached to the Office of the Prime Minister through the secretariat of the NEDB. The procedure of plan 188 formulation and implementation was discussed also in Chapter III. The Department of City and Country Planning in the Ministrycfi'the Interior is responsible for urban and regional deve10pment planning, as the national central planning agency. This department was established by the Thai government under the Reorganization of Ministries and Department Act, October 1, 1962. It was designed for the purpose of close coordination of all ministerial agencies with the NEDB and the Budget Bureau, and as an essential ingredient in the success of the long- and medium-term plans as well as the short-term plans. A number of specialized divisions of this depart- ment deal with the various aspects of physical planning such as the preparation of the comprehensive plans of major urban centers of the country; surveying and compiling relevant statistics for planning; drafting planning legislation and other legal matters; and other public work related to planning proposals. However, most of the planning activi- ties of this department are concerned with urban develop- ment, particularly those involving physical planning. Relatively little attention is paid to the preparation of comprehensive regional development plans. Indeed, there is a small professional planning staff in local planning agencies in the provinces and other local authorities of the country, with the exception for the GBM. In general, the Department of City and Country 189 Planning prepares the planning prOposals for those pro- vincial local authorities and also advises them in prepara- tion of minor programs. There are many Operating agencies in various de- partments of existing ministries at all levels of govern- ment. Since Thailand is predominantly characterized by rural society and agricultural economy, rural deve10pment is relatively important to the country. The Department of Community Development was established by the Thai govern- ment, under the same reorganization act as the Department of City and Country Planning in 1962, and is attached to the Ministry of the Interior. The main function of this department is to initiate community development programs of the country, on the basis of self-help activities, and to bring about the coordinated support of various ministries in realtion to rural projects under the Community Develop- ment Executive and Coordinating Committee. This depart- ment, like other ministerial departments, has Operating field units in provinces, districts, and villages through- out the country. Government System For centuries, the government of Thailand was autocratic in form and authoritarian in spirit with an absolute monarchy. The democratic parliamentary system of government was established with a constitutional monarch 190 by the 1932 coup d'etat. However, the successive govern- ments, in a highly centralized system, have not been strong; consequently, the government has frequently been controlled by military leaders. According to the formal structure of the contemporary government system, the country is adminis- tratively organized into three levels: the central govern- ment; the provincial government; and local self-govern- ment (see Figure 5.5). Central Government The central government is organized into an execu- tive, a legislative, and a judicial system under the consti- tutional monarchy. Although such establishments are dis- tinguishable on the principle of separation of powers, in reality, the executive body or the Cabinet holds the legis- lature in virtual subservience, as an advisory body, and supervises the Operation of the judiciary. Regarding the National Executive Council's Order No. 218, the central administration is composed of the Cabinet, with the Prime Minister as the chairman, and administrative agencies, which include all ministries and various central depart- ments, and a number of quasi-autonomous statutory agencies. The Cabinet dominates all other divisions of the government in framing and implementing all important national policies; and it is also the center around which the entire political system revolves. All Ministers of State are members of 191 Figure 5.5--Present Government Structure and Agencies for Development Planning Source: Adapted from G. L. Harris, U.S. Army Handbook for Thailand (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office, 1968), p. 206. 192 National Assemble, { Cabins?) Office of Prime Mn'm'sl’a‘ “,6 Prime A Ma’nid'er 1 [ NEDB Minisirics Imago,- "' - “ " 1 Excwfv'vc *' - ~—_, NEDB Cammlfl'cc A" COMM. CH}! :- Local chn'ona’ Quasi . Depfs. Dev. 6min! Admn. ‘P — -1. Comi‘flec .. — ."fl Au‘l‘a. Plum. Maude: Cenh-ul Governmcn‘l’ Level T Provincial and Low! Gom- '0 PM“ Adm». PM“ ”W'i‘" ment 1.: vels \ ‘3 N .._....L.. Governor a: PM' Assemblq a: Council it it ___J + 00'6th 60v. 1P—cv—tr Vina“ 60v. Munici- # palHy , 56W {4N1 Dq'SJn'cf Board Commune Audion?” Villaqcs CooPmHves and Volunf'arq 0rqnm‘3ahans 193 the Cabinet, who are chosen by the Prime Minister. In the meantime, the Prime Minister is selected by the Constituent Assembly and appointed by the King. He is assisted by two Deputy Prime Ministers, who are chosen by him. The Cabinet meets frequently. In addition, the Prime Minister is served by the Office of the Prime Minister, which occupies a unique status as a ministry. Its functions and duties are complex and extensive. Generally, it has the responsibility of policy formulation, coordination, and supervision. There are many governemtnal offices which are attached to this office, such as the Civil Service Commission, the NEDB, and other national boards and councils. In terms of administrative agencies, the central administration is organized into many ministries and depart- ments with a similarity in their basic patterns. The political head of each ministry, who is responsible to the Prime Minister, is a Minister of State. The top civil service Official in each ministry is the Permanent Under Secretary of State, who is responsible to the Political Minister. Under the Permanent Under Secretary, there are various departments, divisions, and sections which are hierarchically organized into a ministry. Among all admin- istrative agencies, the Ministry of the Interior is an integral part of day-to-day administration of the country. 194 Provincial Government The provincial government system of Thailand is organized as a national field administration. It is divided into three levels: the provincial, district, and village governments. There are 71 provincial governments, which are divided into 528 district governments; and these districts are composed of 4,891 communes, which are estab- lished as village governments. The Department of Local Administration in the Ministry of the Interior is responsible for the control and the supervision of all field adminis- trative affairs through provincial governors. The governor supervises the administration of national laws and regula- tions and seeks to coordinate the field operations of the national ministries within the province. He is assisted by a council composed of senior representatives of the national ministries functioning within a particular pro- vince, and by the provincial police who are tied to the National Police Department of the Ministry of the Interior. However, the governor's exercise of power over the representatives of the national ministries is subjected to the delegation of authority assigned by the national minis- tries and their departments. Thus in practice, some agencies may report directly to their own central depart- ments. It is not surprising that the governor faces serious difficulties in his coordinating role. 195 Directly under the governor of each province are district officers who are also officials of the Ministry of the Interior. The district officer performs a function as the governor within a district jurisdiction; and he is subject to the latter. At the village level, each commune is led by a chief headman, who is chosen by village headmen from among their number. Although the chief headman and village headmen of a village government are not civil servants, they are paid a small monthly salary and serve as agents of the district officer for a few duties. The chief headman supervises and coordinates the activities of village headmen and also convenes a monthly meeting of the headmen before his monthly meeting with the district officer; thus the chief headman serves as an inter- mediary between the district officer and village headmen. In addition, he is assisted by a commune executive committee, which is composed of all village headmen and a few locally influential persons appointed by the district officer. Local Self-Government In Thailand, the local self-government system is classified into four types: the provincial authority; the municipality; the sanitary district; and the commune authority. At the provincial level, the provincial authority is a corporate body which is responsible for the Operation of the work in the province separated from 196 those designated by the central government. Its duties are to provide and maintain such public services as peace and order and social welfares and also to supervise other activities for the benefit of local peOple. However, most of the activities are provided outside the municipali- ty and sanitary district in the province. It is composed of two major bodies: the provincial assembly and the governor. The provincial assembly is composed of a minimum of 24 popularly chosen representatives. As the matter of fact, the provincial assembly has only a limited power of checks and balances in relation to the executive council and the governor; and it may be dissolved by the Minister of the Interior. The Thai municipal government system is the farthest along the road in terms of local self-government. The municipality is composed of the legislative and executive bodies. The municipal assembly is to function as the legislative body; its members are pOpularly elected. The executive committee is appointed by the provincial governor. The municipality is headed by the mayor who is also appointed by the governor with the approval by the assembly. The municipal affairs are under the supervision of the mayor and the executive committee. In reality, the municipal affairs are subject to tutelary controls exer- cised by the provincial governor, particularly by the Minister of the Interior who has the power to dissolve the 197 municipal assembly for reelection purposes. In smaller urban areas, the sanitary district exists as a corporate entity, but it does not have a separate legislative body as the municipality does. It is administered by the sanitary district board which is com- posed of exofficio and locally elected members. The dis- trict officer is the chairman of the board. At the commune level, the commune authority is provided to perform duties in accordance with laws, rules, and regulations issued by the Ministry of the Interior through the provincial governor and the district officer. The commune authority consists of two bodies: the commune assembly and the commune executive committee. The commune assembly is composed of pOpularly elected members from each village and all village headmen, who are exofficio members. The commune authority is chaired by the chief headman. Its functions are to carry out local activities in a self-help process with the assistance of the central field officials, particularly those of the Community Development Department in the Ministry of the Interior. Actually, the commune authority's operations are dominated by the district officer. Moreover, both the commune authority and the sani- tary district board may be dissolved by the Minister of the Interior through the provincial governor. At the political level, the Thai government provides very little opportunity for popular participation owing to 198 traditional conservatism and excessive centralization. At the same time, the politics of contemporary Thailand are primarily concerned with the competition for power by the ruling cliques, particularly those of the military elite, in seeking the control of the governmental machinery. The politics of the military oligarchy have been less concerned with the country's development and public interests. The ruling clique seeks its vested interests. This practice eradicates the progress of the popular democratic system at all levels of government. Summarygand Conclusion The overall natural resources and ecosystems of the country are mainly based on alluvial soil, substantial rain- fall, and a considerably number of rivers and streams, which have been supplemented by canals, especially in the Central region. These natural assets have made the people capable of cultivating extensive rice and rubber plants by very simple methods. Other important supplements of this natural economic foundation are provided by fruits, forest products, fish, and tin. However, the Northeastern region has a very limited quantity and quality of those natural resources for its economic base. Economic infrastructures as well as their patterns for development are required for improving the country's economy, particularly those of irrigation, transportation, and power energy systems. 199 In terms of the pattern of urbanization in the country during the period 1947-70, the changing levels of urbanization were predominantly characterized by the GBM. However, there were some changes of the urbanization level in other urban areas of various sizes of pOpulation. Among 119 urban centers in the country, there were only thirteen cities that had a considerable change in the level of urbanization, led by the GBM. During the period 1960-70, the urban pOpulation growth rate of the GBM accounted for 7.5 percent per annum compared to less than 5.1 percent per annum of the next twelve cities. By 1970, all of these cities had a population of more than 40,000 persons and were distributed by regions as follows: Chiangmai, Nakhon Sawan, Lampang, and Pittsnulok in the Northern region; Nakohn Ratchsima, Udonthani, and Ubon Ratchthani in the Northeastern region; the GBM, Ayuthaya, and Chonburi in the Central region; and Hat Yai, Songkhla, and Nakhon Sithammarat in the Southern region. Of course, the size of the population of the GBM was overwhelmingly greater than that of the other urban centers of the country. As indicated by the results of internal migration in Thailand on the basis of five-year migrants during the periods 1956-60 and 1966—70, the pattern of migration was mainly characterized by the interrural migration for peOple seeking better agricultural productivity and employment; 200 and by migration to and from the metropolitan area, the GBM, for people seeking employment in an industrialized society. Economic factors in both of the donor and host systems operated in a value system as causes of migration in the country. The GBM demonstrated strikingly the re- lationship between the pattern of the internal migration and the urbanization in the country. Regarding the development planning organization and procedure in Thailand, the plan formulation and imple— mentation were discussed in Chapter III. The NEDB is the central planning agency in economic development planning at the national level. The Department of City and Country Planning in the Ministry of the Interior is also the central planning agency for urban and regional development planning. But most of the work has been concerned with only the physical aspects of urban development. At the local level, planning agencies are almost nonexistent, with the excep- tion of the GBM. At the same time, there are many operating agencies in most ministries and departments at all levels of government. Among them, the Department of Community Deve10pment in the Ministry of the Interior is very important in rural development for a developing country like Thailand. The government system of Thailand is oriented in terms of excessive centralization. It is composed of the central, provincial, and local self-governments. The 201 Cabinet plays a dominant role at the national central government level, particularly those members from the military bureaucracy. Moreover, the local self-government is virtually controlled and supervised by the Central government through the provincial government level under the control of the Ministry of the Interior. On the poli- tical level, there is a lack of greater popularization allowed by the government, particularly in the period of the military government. Taken together in relation to economic develop- ment planning, these factors help in understanding problems and future trends of development which are essential for recommending national urban and regional development strategies to achieve the established development objectives of the Thai economy. FOOTNOTES 1Adul Wichiencharoen, "Movement of Population with- in Thailand," Journal of Public Administration 2 (October 1960): pp. 119-128. 2International Labor Office, Report to the Thai Government on Internal Migration (Geneva: 1965), pp. 79-108. 3Mariam R. Meinkoth, "Migration in Thailand with Particular Reference to the Northeast," Economic and Business Bulletin 4 (June 1962): pp. 3-45. 4Chamriang Phavichitr, Migration in the Resettle- ment Area of Kamphangpet (Bangkok: Thanmasat University Press, 1972), pp. 1164134. 5E. C. Chapman, Internal Migration in Thailand (Hobart: ANZAAS Conference, 1965), pp. 7-12. 6Institute of Population Studies, The Longitudinal Study of Social, Economic, and Demographic Change in Thailand (Bangkok: Chulalongkorn University Press, 1971), pp. 35-48. 202 CHAPTER VI PROBLEMS, TRENDS, AND POTENTIALS IN THE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF THAILAND Problems in Economic Development In contemporary Thailand, the planning and develOp- ment of the country's economy were not entirely free from problems during the period of the past two development plans: 1961-66 and 1967—71. Some of the problems were fairly commonplace, others were unique. These problems were not only economic but also were related to natural resources andecosystems, to social, physical, and political apects, and to the development planning itself. Many of these problems occurred because of the economic development of Thailand. Therefore, it is necessary and worthwhile to examine these problems in that they may reveal obstacles to development which can be corrected. This discussion will be useful in providing basic information for realizing the future trends of economic conditions in relation to the established deve10pment ob- jectives of the country. More important, the discussion will point to the potentials for recommending national urban and regional development strategy which will bring about the 203 204 achievement of the development objectives Of Thailand. Without an adequate comprehension of these problems, they may endure, frustrating efforts for Thai economic develop- ment in the future. Highly Centralized Government System In view of the relation of the government system to economic development in Thailand, many political and admin- istrative problems have occurred in the process of devel- opment. These problems were pervasive during the period of the past two deve10pment plans. Political System Thailand has been committed to modernize the govern- ment as a democratic parliamentary system. However, since the 1932 coup d'etat, the government has been under the control of the military ruling clique, functioning as a moderate dictatorship. The government has not been able to provide the benefits of economic developmental distribu- tion to the majority of the people. In fact, there has been an increasing disparity of economic wealth and income between the GBM and the other four regions of the country, discussed in Chapter III. At the same time, the military government has provided very little Opportunity for popular participation in decision making and the develop— ment planning process. Without this opportunity, the society has not been able to articulate its needs and 205 aspiration. It is not surprising that there has been a threat to the nation in forms of social and political un- rest. In the meantime, the most serious problem in Thai- land was that the conflicts between the Cabinet and the . Parliament, when the country was being governed in a democratic system, led to a military coup d'etat. This type of political change produced unfavorable effects on economic deve10pment by changing development policies,3- causing discontinuity. In addition, not only was the popularly elected national assembly dissolved following the abolition of the national constitution, but other forms of local self-government were also dissolved. This disrupted public interests at all levels of government and discouraged private investments. Because Thai politics have been characterized by an elitist competition for power, particularly among military bureaucrats, the center of interest has been in the struggle for such positions and in the distribution of the substantial profits of power. This has led the elite to join the private business sector. Fred W. Riggsl has pointed out that this practice would be detrimental to preserving the attractiveness of government careers and obstruct the emergence of institutions which are necessary for the growth of the country's economy. Moreover, there has also been a doubtful government capacity for decision 206 making, particularly Cabinet decisions regarding budget allocations for deve10pment projects. These practices have been antithetical to economic deve10pment and also to administrative efficiency and morality. Administrative System The Thai administrative system, based on a highly centralized government system, has been a crucial problem in relation to the economic development of the country. The fact is that the administration has been traditionally organized in a large and complex structure with the great concentration of power in the GBM. Although local public authorities in the provinces, municipal and sanitary districts, and commune levels have been established as a local self-government system, in most matters they have had a very little, if any, discretionary authority. Whatever development planning has been undertaken has been conceivedy in the form of control by the central government; and any development planning from below has not yet influenced planning through the national level. In this way, urban and regional problems have been relegated to the level of local issues; and local public authorities have been expected to solve those tremendous problems. However, it has not been possible for them to do so because the central government has given elements of control to those local authorities only through the Ministry of the Interior. 207 As a matter of fact, the formation of local author- ities in Thailand has resulted from initiatives of the national government, not from the demands of the local people to manage their own affairs. The fact is that local initiatives for local deve10pment became increasingly limited because there are many regulations of the national government allowing little room for fulfillment of local needs and aspirations. Therefore, local authorities have extremely limited authority that may be exercised autonomously. In the meantime, the fiscal administration of the local self-governments has been completely controlled by the central government. Budgeting, receipt and expenditure, revenue collection, accounting, purchasing, and debt management are focal points for procedural and substantive elements of control. Together with local revenue, sources for deve10pment equnditures are generally restricted and inadequate to support local areas, even in minor pro- grams. This has made local public authorities virtually dependent on central government finance. All local public authorities have been closely supervised by the central government, and all personnel have been appointed by the central government through the Ministry of the Interior except the village officials. Therefore, the Ministry of the Interior has the power related to recruitment, promotion, classification of 208 positions, discipline, and firing of those local officials. It is obvious that local self-governments of Thailand have almost no control over their own personnel. In these ways, the central government has entire control over the management of local affairs. Such a control has been achieved by issuing rules and regulations, by governing financial practices, and providing personnel, through the Ministry of the Interior. The most serious form of intervention in local affairs by the central govern- ment has been the dissolution of local public authorities by the Ministry of the Interior. This has turned the local self-government into a mere subunit of the Ministry of the Interior. This has weakened local authorities in forming local initiatives and institutional sources for local economic deve10pment and other matters. Deficiencies in Development Planning Organization and Procedure In consideration of the organization and procedure for economic development planning in Thailand, there were many problems during the past two development plans, 1961- 71. It was not only the lack of a conceptual framework of coordination of sectoral development planning with urban and regional development planning, but also lack of a coordination of planning and actions at all levels of government. Moreover, there had not yet been a link between plan formulation and implementation in the 209 planning process. These problems were crucial obstacles in bringing about effective deve10pment planning in the Thai economy. These problems will be discussed in the following sections. Lack of Urban and Regional Development Planning in National Economic Develgpment As discussed in Chapter III, the nature of the national economic development plans of Thailand was oriented on the basis of sectoral planning during the period 1961-71. Urban and regional development plans were not part of those national development plans as a spatial dimension of planning. At the regional level, comprehen- sive regional development plans never existed. Generally, local and regional deve10pment plans were concerned only with rural development projects by the NEDB. Although these projects were touted, the fact was that they were mostly palliative in nature. In addition, most urban development plans were oriented on only the physical aspect of planning and completely lacking in area-wide approaches in the context of regional and national economies. In this way, only very little or no prior study of urban and regional development areas had been initiated in the plan- ning process at all levels of planning areas. National economic development planning had been a separate activity without close coordination between urban and regional deve10pment planning. 210 It is not surprising that scarce resources were squandered because the pattern of the capital investment allocation was not based on comparative advantages of developmental locations. Consequently, capital invest- ments were allocated without regard to the equity of the developmental benefits among regions of the country. The large proportion of these projects was concentrated in the GBM. As indicated in earlier analysis in Chapter III, most of the benefits of economic growth and income distribu- tion were reflected in the GBM, particularly benefits to the top income classes. The other four regions remained poorer. Few resources were being used efficiently because of lack of coordination of urban and regional development planning with various sectoral development planning at all levels of government. Lack of Coordination of Planning and Implementation at All Levels of Government In Thailand, one of the most obvious shortcomings in the planning process for economic development has been the inadequate coordination of planning and implementation at all levels of government. At the national level, the NEDB Executive Committee is responsible for coordinating plan formulation and implementation of those ministries and departments involved in deve10pment planning. However, an ad hoc interdepartment committee of each region has been established for this function at the regional level. In 211 addition, there have been only rural coordinating commit- tees at other levels of local government. Despite the government effort in initiating this coordinating task, planning and implementation has encountered many severe problems in the process of the development planning. On the planning level, the NEDB and the Department of City and Country Planning are both national planning agencies. However, the NEDB, which is re3ponsible for national economic development planning, is attached to the Office of the Prime Minister. The Department of City and Country Planning, which is responsible for national urban and regional deve10pment planning, is under the Ministry of the Interior. Because of this, the Department of City and Country Planning is not in a position to work closely with the NEDB in coordinating urban and regional development planning with sectoral deve10pment planning because the two agencies function in a substantive degree of autonomy. Furthermore, planning organizations at the regional level have never been established; and the Department of City and Country Planning has not been involved in regional develop- ment planning in the national context. At this point, inte- gration of development planning at all levels of government has ceased to exist. A similar pattern of problems has been more pre- valent in the provincial and urban levels, with the excep- tion of the GBM. Although the provincial and urban plans 212 have been prepared through the joint effort of the Depart- ment of City and Country Planning and local government organizations, their planning proposals have frequently been considerably modified by the Ministry of the Interior, through the provincial governor, before being submitted to the NEDB. This has led to fragmented and almost totally unrelated efforts of planning at all levels Of government by various departmental agencies. On the implementation level, there have been many different units and operating agencies involved in the process. However, the problems of implementation coordi- nation have been mainly imposed by political and adminis- trative constraints at all levels of government. At the national level, the NEDB Executive Committee, which is responsible for coordinating this implementation has been subject to the control of the powerful Cabinet which is made up of members with vested interests. On a number of occa- sions, large projects have been adOpted in principle by the Cabinet before being remanded to the NEDB for review. But these projects were not included in the original plans for deve10pment. At the same time, the members of the NEDB Executive Committee have never fully participated. Certain key members have been kept from activity. The fact is that the coordinating work has been done through unofficial agreement, on the basis of the strongest pull of the powerful groups. 213 A similar pattern of problems in implementation coordination has also prevailed at the regional level in spite of the provision of an ad hoc interdepartment committee by the government. In reality, most problems have been related to the competition and rivalry among members of the committees. In this way, projects have been too often conceived and executed because of money distribution. At the provincial and local levels, it has not been only the planning that was controlled by the central government, the Ministry of the Interior, but also the implementation, particularly in terms of finance, legitimacy, personnel, and local mangement. In addition, most of the field operation agencies of ministries and departments have been relatively autonomous. This has resulted in uncoordinated actions at the provincial and local levels. Therefore, the lack of coordination of plan formulation and implementation at all levels of government has created a wasteful and inefficient deve10pment in the Thai economy. Lack of Coordination between Plan Formulation and Implementation It was not only the nature of the development plans at all levels of planning that was characterized by a lack of comprehensiveness, but also there was no link between plan formulation and implementation in the planning pro- cess during the period 1961-71. Those developmment plans were only a collection of all projects based on project 214 analysis alone. There was no programming stage in which all adopted development plans could be translated and broken down into identifiable programs to be executed. Of course, without phasing such programs over time and assuring adequate finance in various public and private sectors, this caused the deve10pment plans to become inconsistent. It is not surprising that the allocation of capital invest- ments and other resources as well as the coordination of activities of numerous agencies could not be promoted to bring about efficient development. Thus the gap grew between plan formulation and implementation. Since the Thai economic deve10pment strategy emphasized private sectors in the process of economic development, the lack of program planning which would serve as a guideline with precise information in both agricul- tural and nonagricultural sectors tended to hinder economic deve10pment. In this circumstance, the entrepreneurs were deterred from making large capital investments, par- ticularly in the four regions outside the GBM, because of the uncertainty of government policy direction and also because of high risks in regard to the capital necessary to compensate for the lack of business experience of the Thai middle class. Thus investments continued to be made in more traditional commercial businesses because the prohibitive risk and the uncertainty involved with indus- trial investments. Most of the growth in investments and 215 economic developmental benefits had been confined to the largest urban areas, the GBM. This in turn created a low level of savings for investments in the other regions. In addition, this was also a crucial obstacle in guiding public sectors, as well as in providing a basis for an efficient control and review system of the fulfillment of the established deve10pment Objectives. Furthermore, one of the major problems in linking plan formulation to implementation as well as in decision making was the lack of both quantity and quality of infor- mation, particularly regarding locational units of planning areas. In the meantime, statistical data collection and distribution were almost entirely a departmental affair. Therefore, the task of cooperation and coordination for information exchange had not yet been linked intimately to the planning machinery, even to the National Statistical Office, for these purposes. Consequently, plan formula- tion and implementation and decision making were based on insufficient information and resulted in an inefficient development and the creation of unforseen problems. Economic Inefficiency and Imbalance As seen in the analysis of the economic develop- ment of Thailand during the period 1961-71, there were many problems. Although the Thai economy had shown a fairly rapid rate of economic growth and change at the 216 national level, these had been only partial achievements. More important, the data of the regional levels indicate that the pattern of economic growth and distribution had been more unfavorable in variations between different regions of the country. In fact, more than half of the total production of the economy (GDP) was concentrated in the Central region, a particularly large proportion of it in the GBM. In the meantime, most of the benefits of economic developmental distribution, in terms of income classes, accrued to the top income classes in urban areas, and of course to those in the GBM. Despite the government effort in accelerating rural development in the four regions, the GBM continued to play a very important role in economic dominance. The other regions which constituted the greatest part of the country's population remained poor. This created a widening disparity of economic growth and income distribution in favor of the GBM. A large prOportion of the allocation of capital investments and other resources was concentrated in the GBM. In addition, the GBM had a substantial advance in secondary and tertiary industrial sectors. The remaining four regions showed only very little gains in these sec- tors because the structure of those regional economies was dominated by the agricultural sector. This tended to create dangerous and chronic imbalances between industry and agriculture, between the regions and the GBM, in the 217 economic production structure and the pace of industrial- ization itself. Furthermore, agricultural employment predominated in the four regions in the regional pattern of employment. Comparatively, the productivity of the four regions was very low in relation to the productivity of the GBM. It is not surprising that these problems tended to hinder the economic stability and self-sufficiency of the nation. All of these economic problems were caused by many factors, both economic and noneconomic. Among those factors were the economic development planning and the government system of Thailand. However, there were other problems that occurred concurrently with the economic problems. These problems reflected difficulty with natural resources, social and pOpulation factors, physical, and cultural aspects. They are discussed separately in other sections in the context of the economic development of Thailand. Deterioration of Natural Resources and Ecosystems During the past two development plans, 1961-71, there were many problems related to natural resources and ecosystems in Thailand. Valuable forests of the country were excessively exploited. This resulted in severely damaged forests. The unit cost of lumber production in- creased. Some mineral resources were being rapidly 218 exhausted. The balance might never be restored by conserva- tion or fresh discoveries, particularly of the best tin deposits. In addition to problems with vegetation and mineral resources, there were periodically destructive floods during the rainy season and lack of water during the dry season, especially in the Northeastern region. Many farmers were driven out by floods and droughts in conse- cutive years because of the sterility of the land caused by flood or drought. There was a shortage of water not only for agriculture, but also for drinking. There was not yet sound control over the water supply or over soil, forest, or mineral resources. This deterioration of natural resources occurred beyond the scope of resource conservation. It was related to the amenities and natural ecosystems of the country. For instance, industrial wastes had been flushed into the Mae Klong River, the western portion of the Central region, without appropriate treatment. This endangered the drinking water for many towns and communities along this river. In the Southern and Northern regions, mine acids were washed down killing vegetation and crops. Moreover, long-lasting pesticides were a health hazard to the workers, particular- ly in multiple crop areas in the Northern and Northeastern regions. The problem of the destruction of the natural eco- systems was even more marked in the GBM. Acceleration of 219 population growth and concentration in the city had reduced a number of water bodies for expanding streets and build- ings. Ditches and canals were filled, and trees were cut. Consequently, the GBM had a serious problem in its drainage system. During the peak of the rainy season, several parts of the city were submerged; and the flood carried sewage which seeped out of septic tanks. This caused water pollution in the Chao Phraya River and soaked grounds in congested housing areas. Air pollution in the GBM is generally very common as in other big cities of the world. The destruction of many trees caused the weather of the GBM to be hotter than ever besides causing a reduction of the supply of oxygen- producing greenery and the amenity of Open space. In addition, the problem of trash disposal was aggravated by a long expensive haul to open dumps in several outlying sites. This created visual pollution and other disturbing forms of pollution, damaging the environments. In fact, the natural ecosystems and amenities of the GBM deterio- rated badly. Thus economic development planning of Thai- land increasingly turned away from the importance of natural resources and ecosystems. Inadequate and Deteriorated Physical Facilities The primary facilities for education and public health were still inadequate. The same was true for decent 220 housing in many parts of the country despite considerable efforts in rural development programs. A great many young people left their homes each year to go to district and provincial towns as well as to the GBM for schooling. In some remote areas, the government did not provide schools and staff for the children, thus condemning the children to illiteracy. The mass of the people in the rural areas relied on traditional medical remedies because of the lack of modern medical facilities. More than half of the coun- try's hospitals were found in the GBM. The basic utili- ties in terms of water supply and sewage system were in— adequate in most parts of the country. A health hazard was created not only because many rivers were used for garbage and waste disposals, but also because they were used for bathing and laundering. In addition, electricity was not provided in most rural areas. In terms of the physical aspects of the economic infrastructure, many rural roads were in very poor condi- tion and maintenance was not adequate. During the rainy season, large sections of the roads became impassable because of flooding, especially in remote areas. Because these areas were not easily accessible for transportation, the farmers were burdened with high harvesting costs. Although irrigation projects had been constructed to store water for agriculture and household uses, the water dis- tribution system had not yet been completed to most farming 221 areas, except to the areas around the GBM through canals. Public and private storage and flood control work was active but tended to be small in scale and totally ineffec- tive during the period of marked flood or drought. The result was damage to paddy fields and other crOps. In urban areas, the GBM was characterized by a spontaneous development, with a very high rate of urbaniza- tion, which created many problems in physical settlements. Slums were scattered all over the GBM with the common features of overcrowded, dilapidated, and deteriorated houses; of inadequate water supply, sewage system, and drainage; of limited access as well as lack of amenities. These were dangerous to health, safety, and morals of the inhabitants. A survey by the Department of Public Welfare indicated that, in 1962, there were 24,150 households in slum areas of the GBM with about 144,900 peOple.2 By 1970, the Municipality of Bangkok-Thonburi revealed that there were about 25,000 households, constituting approxi- mately 162,000 persons, living in the slums in the GMB.3 At the same time, schools and medical facilities in the GBM were very crowded and inadequate. In addition to the elimination of trees, canals, and ditches for use as roads, parks and recreation facilities were not provided or were overwhelmingly inadequate. The street network was inadequate for the serious rise in traffic congestion 222 from the huge volume of vehicles. Communication systems and municipal services were not effective. The subterranean geology of the GBM, composed of a series of alternate layers of clay and sand gravel, is not resistant to an excessively heavy load or moving load of the physical structure of the metropolis. This had caused a considerably amount of damage to buildings and street surfaces. At a depth between 50 to 150 meters, the underground zone contains underground water suitable for industrial and domestic consumption. However, a large amount of the underground water has been pumped out due to the short water supply in the city. It has been hypothesized by Dr. Muktapanda4 that this might cause the GBM to sink although there has not yet been any technical proof to substantiate this hypothesis. Indeed, it is rather apparent that many aSpects of the physical setting of the GBM would tend to hinder its development in the future. In the provincial towns, the physical settlement problems were not as crucial as in the GBM because of the slow pOpulation growth and change as well as less concentra- tion. However, they were also characterized by a sponta- neous deve10pment of the physical pattern from the lack of comprehensive plans. General problems were related to the inadequacy of decent housings and good transportation facilities; to basic social facilities such as schools, medical centers, and recreation; and to essential utilities 223 such as water supply and sewage systems and telephone ser- vices. These problems reflected the inefficiency of eco— nomic development planning in Thailand in relation to physical infrastructures. Social Dilemmas Although the Thai economy was growing under the two development plans, many social problems occurred as the consequences of such economic development. As evidenced in the unbalanced pattern of urbanization in Thailand, the pOpulation growth and concentration were overwhelming in the GBM; these were the results of rural-urban migration to the GBM from other parts of the country. On the other hand, interrural migration was even more pervasive in the country. On the whole, economic factors determined the pattern of internal migration in both place of origin and of destination. Despite the large number of interrural migrants who moved because of land development and agricultural production, and rural-urban migration to the GBM and employment opportunity, the fact was that neither agricul- tural development nor the excessive urbanization of the GBM occurred in response to real economic needs for inmigrant absorption. Rather these movements stemmed from conditions of economic and social insecurity at the places of origin. This situation was not based on the decentralization of 224 regional urbanization in response to increasing agricultural productivity for the migrants. Without such a provision, the newcomers continued to arrive in areas that were already saturated, resulting inevitably in social problems in both places of origin and destination. There were widespread indications that the out- migration had severely strained social and economic struc- tures of many rural communities in Thailand, as indicated by the International Labor Organization.5 In addition, outmigration had caused serious problems of depopulation and manpower loss of the young age groups, particularly those from 20 through 44 years old, in the places of origin of rural Thailand.6 This would tend to aggravate the stagnation of rural economic activities and institutions which depended on numbers of population. Older farmers were less likely to undertake reorganizations of existing resources themselves because of limits of their physical capabilities, income, and the limited Span over which they might realize returns on investments and efforts. At the same time, many problems arose in the places of destination because the immigrants themselves sometimes found the adjustment to the new economic, social, and subcultural environment difficult. The problems connected to inmigration in rural areas of Thailand were crucial. Haphazard clearing of land and illegal occupa- tion of the forest in shifting cultivation were detrimental 225 to the national economy and also entailed trouble for the holders. Moreover, an occupation of supposedly vacant land gave rise to quarrels with the alleged previous occu- piers; the social tension increased where the occupiers and the squatters were of different ethnic stems and spoke different dialects. The isolation of pioneers clearing the forest in remote areas gave rise to problems to which an economic solution could hardly be found. Farmers sometimes left their land because of harassment by robbers, disease, lack of schools, and access to communication and markets. The most Obvious result of the influx of inmigrants to the GBM from the rural areas was that the problem of unemployment and underemployment became greater because many rural migrants did not have educational training or social background that matched the opportunities available in the industrial sectors of the GBM. However, those in- migrants who found jobs were concentrated in occupations of services which required minimum skills for many of them, their hOpes were not realized. Moreover, there was the problem of increasing slums in the GBM caused by the rapid replacement of the old population by inmigrants whose economic status was low. These added a difficult adjust- ment to problems that were already mounting in those areas. Rarely did the newcomers find sufficient employment in the GBM to improve their condition. In fact, they often 226 exchanged a mierable rural subsistence for urban living at a lower level. Seldom did their chosen community welcome them; and its institutions did not serve them well. This caused other forms of deviant behavior on the part of emo- tionally vulnerable individuals and the deve10pment of destructive tension between the inmigrants and the host population as well as the increase of criminal activities. These problems were most outstanding in the GBM. This was true not only for the peasants who left their villages in search of employment in the GBM and who, being unable to find any, went back home, but also for persons holding secondary education or vocational training certificates. This represented a waste of resources and brought about disappointment and bitterness. Some of these consequences had a bearing on the national economy as a whole. Trends and Potentials in the Development of the Economy On the basis of an excessive centralization of the Thai government system and the lack of integration of national economic and regional urban deve10pment planning, only the GBM had an outstanding role in constituting the country's economic wealth, as discussed earlier. This gave rise to inequalities of economic growth and income distribution among the regions as well as other consequen- tial problems throughout the country. Together with the 227 rapid increase in pOpulation growth the population is estimated to be about 50 million people by 1980, 70 million people by 1990, and almost 100 million people by the end of the century7--itis likely that the pOpulation will play an important role in Thai economic development for the future. In these circumstances, given that the same pattern and commitment to economic development will be pursued by the Thai government, it is unlikely that the established development objectives will be realized. On the contrary, this will tend to augment previous problems placing the country into a great economic adversity and an upheaval of social and political stability. An essentially Optimistic approach for a more regionally balanced growth of the economy in the country would integrate urban and regional deve10pment planning into national economic development planning. Such an integration would be aimed at increasing the agricultural productivity and deliberately promoting a systematic decentralization of the urbanization process to form other economic growth centers for industrialization in the country. In this way, urban and regional development planning would retard the concentration of economic growth in the GBM, and invest- ments would be channelled into areas where marginal returns are low but where they would strengthen the national economic deve10pment in a balanced pattern of economic growth distri- bution. These changes would be based on regionally 228 comparative advantages and the coordination between sectoral development planning and urban and regional development planning. The linkage Of plan formulation and implementation is a matter of the coordination of planning and actions at all levels of government. These must promote political and administrative decentralization as practicable in Thailand. Integration is, therefore, essential for overcoming the problems and constraints if the government is willing to solve its developmental problems. It is likely that econom- ic efficiency and stability would gradually increase over time as new growth centers and agricultural productivity began to develop a growth momentum of their own. This would lead to the equity of economic growth and income distribution, according to the established development objectives of the country. Summary and Conclusion On the basis of a highly centralized government system, with a great power concentration in the GBM, there has been a lack of providing greater pOpularization on the political level, particularly in the period of the military government. This ruling group has not yet sought the country's development especially economic development, as its primary goal. Rather its interest has centered around the struggle for power and the use of such power for vested interests. 229 The administrative system of the country has been overwhelmingly characterized by excessive supervision and elements of control in terms of legitimacy, financial and personnel resources, as well as management of local affairs, from the central government in the GBM to local self- governments throughout the nation. This in turn has so greatly reduced the degree of local self-government that these local public authorities have not been able to function efficiently to meet their local needs. In this connection, the economic development plan- ning of the country has resulted in downward trends without sufficient recognition of the requirements and needs of local areas in the planning process. Consequently, the development planning during the period 1961-71 was charac- terized by a lack of coordination of urban and regional development planning with sectoral development planning to the comparative advantage of localities of the economy and by the lack of coordination of planning and actions at all levels of government. These led to the lack of linkage between plan formulation and implementation. It is not surprising that most of the capital investments and other resources were concentrated in the GBM. Thus structural transformation of economic production occurred substantial— ly in the GBM, particularly for secondary and tertiary industrial sectors; whereas, the other four regions remained predominantly in the agricultural sector with a great 230 employment in agriculture. Therefore, the GBM led all regions in productivity efficiency. More important, most benefits of economic deve10pmental distribution occurred in the GBM, particularly those to the top income classes of the country. This in turn caused the poor regions to remain poorer because of the increasing gap of economic growth and income distribution in the country. Moreover, there were many problems which occurred along with economic problems. A serious shortage of land and natural resources as well as the deterioration of natural ecosystems increased throughout the country. Meanwhile, social and physical problems were exposed: slums and squatter settlements, inadequacy and inefficiency of physical economic infrastructures and other necessary facilities, the spontaneous development of physical settle- ment patterns, migration, poverty, crime, unemployment and underemployment, the lack of health, sanitation, and welfare programs as well as poor education for the people, and the imbalance of urban and rural population distribution in the country. These problems were related to the Thai economic development. In this connection, it is felt that the pattern of economic development as well as of economic deve10pment benefits was concentrated inthe GBM more than in other regions, which remained outside the mainstreams of develop- ment and its benefits; this caused other regions to become 231 poorer. This in turn created many problems in both of the GBM and the other four regions which were already beset by problems. This pattern of economic development was consistent with the pattern of a highly centralized government and with the lack of urban and regional develop- ment integrated into national economic development planning. Therefore it is not recommended that this pattern be pursued in economic development in Thailand. Integrated deve10pment planning will be a logical alternative for correcting these problems for the potential of future eco- nomic deve10pment of Thailand. It will be advantageous if it is properly and deliberately put into practice. FOOTNOTES 1Fred W. Riggs, Thailand: The Modernization of Bureaucratic Polity (Honolulu: East—West Center, 1966), p. 251. 2Ministry of Interior, Housing Problems in Bangkok- Thonburi (Bangkok: 1970), p. 22. 3Bangkok-Thonburi Municipal Authority, Report of Housing and Social Problems in Bangkok MetrOpolis (Bangkok: 1972), p. 18. 4Dr. Chai Muktapanda, "The Sinking of Bangkok" in Report of the Seminar of Problems in Bangkok MetrOpolis (Bangkok: Chulalongkorn University Press, 1972), pp. 119- 123. 5International Labor Organization, Report to the Thai Government on Internal Migration (Geneva: 1965), pp. 1094133. 6Sydney Goldstein, The Demggraphy of Bangkok: A Case Study of Differentials between Big Citypand Rural Population (GangkOk: ’ChuIalongkorn University Press, 1972), p. 23. 7National Economic Development Board, Summary of the Report on Population of the Executive Committee to His Excellengy, the Prime Minister of Thailand (Bangkok: NEDB, 1970). pp. 1-3. 232 CHAPTER VII RECOMMENDATIONS FOR INTEGRATED NATIONAL ECONOMIC AND REGIONAL URBAN DEVELOPMENT PLANNING In view of the previous discussions concerning economic deve10pment in Thailand, integration of national economic and regional urban development planning is essen- tial as an appropriate means for bringing about efficient and equitable economic growth and income distribution. In order to fulfill these objectives, it is recommended that the strategy for the integration should be measured. This measure would provide guidelines in formulating policy and implementing development programs for the Thai economy. Structure of Regional Urban Growth Centers in Thailand The national economic structure is the sum of its regional parts, which are composed of urban growth centers and their corresponding hinterlands. The impor- tance of the regional urban growth centers and their rural hinterlands in the national economic system is that they perform the vital function of integrating individuals and 233 234 specific groups of a given geographic location into the national system of production and distribution. It is therefore, important to identify the structure of regional urban growth centers that have the potential for economic growth, together with their corresponding agricultural and natural resource potentials as prerequisites for the promo- tion of economic deve10pment in Thailand. It is suggested that the urban centers of each region of the country would be grouped together as urban growth centers. The grouping would be as follows: Chiangmai, Nakhon Sawan, Lampang, and Pittsanulok in the Northern region; Nakhon Ratchsima, Udonthani, and Ubon Ratchthani in the Northeastern region; Hat Yai, Songkhla, and Nakhon Sithammarat in the Southern region; and the GBM, Chonburi, and Ayuthaya in the Central region. The regions would be grouped hierarchically on the basis of population size. These urban locations are also centers of the trans- portation system, giving access to sources of supply and to markets which local entrepreneurial organizations, and social and physical amenities for public services. These urban centers, with the exception of the GBM, would be centers for industrial investment and other infra- structures based On agricultural production and natural resource economy, the size of local markets, and the demand for exporting the marketable surplus. Simultaneously, the demand pull needed for agricultural development would 235 have to come, in part, from urban industrial sources, as industrial input for agriculture. This in turn would increase the demand for employment in nonagricultural sectors of the economy in urban growth centers, and the rural surplus labor would have to be trained and trans- ferred to nonagricultural occupations. Consequently, rurual-urban migration would be channeled to those mature urban centers prepared to absorb it, diverting the migration streams from the overcrowded GBM. In this fashion, the functional hierarchy of those urban growth centers would gradually move from a relatively immature stage to more mature configurations and relation- ships. Once the functional hierarchy of these regional urban growth centers is firmly established, they would tend to perpetuate themselves in sustained economic ex- pansion and with a high level of specialization. This would counteract the overwhelmingly centralized economic growth of the GBM and the backwash effect of undirected growth distribution. This would also improve chronically depressed regions of the country by systematic decentral- ization of the urbanization process, creating balanced regional economic growth distribution. In addition to building up the structure of urban growth centers for industrial development in each region, agricultural productivity would also have to be increased in a way which would respond to marketable industrial input. 236 The productivity of agricultural output of Thailand would be improved by expanding available arable land; by expand- ing irrigation, particularly its distribution system; by establishing soil conservation; and by providing an appropriate mechanization in different areas. Scientific research would bring the technology for increasing yield of agricultural products and for developing natural resources in such a way that they would be efficiently utilized for maximum long-term economic benefits. Moreover. greater accessibility to the market centers in those urban growth centers would be provided by improving the transportation system in the rural areas. The provision of various agricultural extension services would be strengthened in assisting farmers in terms of pricing, marketing, credits, land tenure, and so forth. In addition, rural development programs would continue in community development and promoting cooperatives and other voluntary organizations for the benefit of farmers. Many of these rural deve10pment programs and projects would use existing skills. On the whole, the agricultural input would be largely dependent on domestic goods and services. It would be possible to measure agricultural devel- opment and natural resources to aid in improving agricul- tural productivity and considering resources for marketable industrial input. For instance, a further expansion of rice production by the use of modern techniques might be 237 facilitated, particularly in double cropping rice land in the Chao Phraya Plain of the Central region. And the im- provement of cultivation of rain-fed crops might be fos- tered in the Northern region. In the meantime, the improve- ment of the agricultural economy of the Northeastern region might be developed through various means, such as the en- couragement of a steady shift in the multiple-cropping pat- tern with less emphasis on rice, and shift to a greater em- phasis on pasturage and livestock. In the Southern region, the advantage of major opportunities for agricultural devel- opment might be provided by the possibility of expanding rubber and marine fish production. Forestry and mineral resources would be ultimately needed for conservation throughout the country. Therefore, by identifying the structure of urban growth centers for industrial development and raising agri- cultural productivity in Thailand the national economy would be made up of several fully integrated regional econ- omies. Most significantly, this would be an essential basis for comprehensively delineating urban and regional develop- ment, region by region, adjusting regions to each other and integrating them into national economic development. The pattern of economic growth may not be smooth at the early stages of development. However, the dynamic spatial struc- ture of economic development will move from relatively immature to more mature configurations and relationships 238 at the later stages. This would lead to a balanced economic growth distribution among the regions. Improvement of Economic Development Planning Organization and Procedure To establish efficient economic development plan- ning, an appropriate improvement in organization and procedure is required for integrating urban and regional planning into national economic development planning. These needs will be discussed in the following sections. Coordination of Sectoral Planning with Urban and Regional Planning In order to facilitate a balanced growth Of the econ- omy by providing a dispersion of urban-industrial centers and increasing agricultural output and efficiency, a linkage be- tween the national economic development plan and regional urban deve10pment plan must exist at all levels of govern- ment. It is therefore, recommended that urban and regional development planning be coordinated into economic sectoral development planning as well as global development planning in the national context. This integration would permit all levels of government to produce comprehensive development plans which would be compatible with the overall national de- ve10pment objectives. Each sectoral deve10pment project would be appropriately located so that its impact would be part of a balanced pattern throughout different parts of the country. 239 In this way, the development planning would shift from national to regional and urban levels in relation to sectoral development planning. Such a coordination would overcome some of the difficulties inherent in detailed plan- ning done exclusively by the central planning agency with- out regard to local needs. It would integrate the existing variety of rural and urban development programs into a com- prehensive whole, covering different geographic areas. And it would guide sectoral investments and other related pro- grams into a coherent program which would be more efficient and consistent with national economic development policies and with permitting the combined yields to be greatest. Therefore, such a coordination of different types of development planning would be likely to bring about an equitable distribution of the fruits of economic growth among the various regions and sections of the population of the country if it can be fully utilized so as to ensure that it covers all urban industrial and agricultural re- gions. Taken together, urban and regional development plan- ning in the national context would be important and com- plementary to the Thai economic development objectives. Coordination of Planning and Implementation at Various Levels of Government In Thailand, there has not yet been adequate coor- dination of planning and actions in economic development at all levels of government. The establishment of a fully effective coordination upward and downward at various levels 240 of government in the planning process is essential for integrating urban and regional development planning into the national economic development planning. Recommenda- tions will be made for joint responsibility of local, regional, and national levels for efficient economic devel- opment planning and actions. See Figure 7.1. Coordination at Commune Level At the village level, the commune authority is the local self-government. It has the same boundary as the village government and contains approximately eight villages. However, it has been virtually under the control of the Ministry of the Interior through the provincial governor and district officer. Moreover, there have been many fragmented organizations engaged separately in devel- opment efforts in a given commune authority. Therefore, it is very difficult to facilitate efficient development activity. In coordination of planning and actions in the commune authority, it is recommended that the Commune Development Committee (CDC) would be established, consoli- dating existing separate units of local organizations with- in the commune authority. These local organizations in- clude cooperatives and other voluntary groups, notably farmers' groups, occupational groups, woman and youth groups, and teachers' groups besides the commune authority itself, the village government, and other field agencies. 241 Nm‘fonal Assembly; ( Obinc'r ) Office of Prime Mim'STcr' qu. Prime Minis‘fer Ndional :15: 3:191 IWi'N°~“'>+"""3~‘s Inferior 4H - _ - -~ DC'bexfmT ih — -~” 0{ 0""! " COMM' e.e Ray. Pbmn. ~ 9e 'ana’ Quasi - A” (annum-I'D; $0.919“- ‘F”" Ajharitq f - ““' Ania . Dep'is. k'cplifg'.“ h’gmiiepl. u RDC . Aqeua'es CW! 60V. Level T __-q-_——: ——————— a ________ 9: v—;ud Local 60ml 1 1 Levels 0’ 9"" M” 9”“ Mani" Provincial Mmiaipaliia.’ \ .. .. ,u t" Prov. .4536qu ‘ Devclapnch k g 60'6",” Comi‘Hcc MDC - 13 I Q D's? De e1 7 me 1’ Snail» Die? 0 o 4* O a V H I11 0 1"” 9'5”"? GMTM'J ' “'" Commifi‘c: I Dev. Can. J.-. V7114?“ ____,_ Commune Develop- Coops. k 60 var-amen? men” Cannifl‘ec Va! . 0'45- Wllaqcs Coops. and Volunf'arq Orqs. Figure 7.l--Proposed Government Structure and Organization for Coordination of Planning and Implementation 242 In this way, the CDC would be composed of repre- sentatives of cooperative and voluntary organizations, the commune authority and other field agencies. The CDC would select its own chairman from among its members. The CDC would function as an advisory body to the commune authority and be responsible for bringing about plans and interests of various organizations, reviewing plans, capital budgets, and sources of finance, and coordinating the over- all planning of the commune authority. Then the CDC would submit those plans along with those programs of various ministerial departments to the District Development Commit- tee (DDC). In the meantime, the CDC would work closely with the district officer and other field officials through the DDC for technical assistance, particularly of rural devel- opment field officials of the Community Deve10pment Depart- ment in the Ministry of the Interior providing a self-help process. These officials would assist the commune organiza- tions in planning and execution of their projects, as well as in training and conducting their local interests and affairs. In addition, the CDC would indicate the appropriate way for carrying out these plans to various responsible operating agencies. 243 Coordination at District Level At the district level, no authority exists for planning and action. The district area, which contains eight to twelve commune authorities and one or two sani— tary districts as local self-governments, is under the responsibility of the provincial authority in providing public services and development activities. In fact, those commune authorities and sanitary districts have been under the control of the Ministry of the Interior through the district government, the district officer, and the pro- vincial governor. This has blocked the linkage of local self-government from commune and sanitary district levels to the provincial level. In addition, since each province contains about eight sanitary districts and seventy communes, it is considered too large for providing an efficient coordina- tion of planning and actions from the commune and sanitary district levels to the provincial level. In order to fill the gap of such a coordination, it is recommended that the District Deve10pment Committee (DDC) should be established as an appropriate intermediate level for coordinating work between the commune and sanitary district levels and the provincial level. At the same time, the Sanitary District Development Committee (SDDC) would also be created for a similar function as the CDC for coordination of planning and action at the sanitary district level. The SDDC would 244 select its chairman from among its members and work closely with the district officer and other national field offi- cials through the DDC. Since it would enhance local organizations, the joint formation of a COOperative union and voluntary organi- zation would be encouraged at the commune authority. This would provide local organizations with competent members for initiating their own interests, planning, and other deve1- Opment activities. In this connection, representatives of COOperative unions and voluntary organizations in the commune authority and sanitary district, as well as of each commune authority and sanitary district board, and of the district officials and field officials would be united to form the DDC. The DDC would be chaired by the district officer for stimulating and strengthening devel- opment at the district level, but he would not have the right to vote. The DDC would advise and guide the CDC and SDDC in providing a means for evaluating plans, preparing appli- cation for the central government grant-in-aid, coordinating work, as well as encouraging the cooperation between the CDC and SDDC in a common program. Furthermore, the DDC would coordinate those plans of the lower levels of govern- ment and those of various ministerial departments for bringing about the overall district development plan and indicating an apprOpriate implementation of these plans to 245 different operating agencies, as well as for submitting those plans to the Provincial Deve10pment Committee (PDC). Coordination at Provincial Level At the provincial level, there are two types of local self—government in Thailand, the provincial authority and the municipality. They are entirely subject to the tutelary control exercised by the Ministry of the Interior through the provincial government or the provincial gover- nor for any planning and actions related to economic deve1- Opment in their jurisdictions. It is not surprising that they cannot function, for this would reflect the real local self-government purposes as well as the public interests and welfare of these local peOple. Moreover, there are many national central government agencies, including the quasi-autonomous statutory agencies and other local agen- cies involved in planning and actions in these areas, and there is very little effort for cooperation and coordination in these development activities. In order to overcome this weakness, it is recommended that the Municipal Development Committee (MDC) and the Provincial Development Committee be established for coordination of planning and implementa- tion purposes in the municipalities and the provinces. In the municipality, the MDC would be composed of representatives of central government agencies, quasi- autonomous statutory agencies, voluntary organizations, and 246 the municipal authority. The MDC would be headed by the mayor, but he would not have the right to vote. The MDC would be an advisory body, and would function similarly to the previous development committees. Because the function of the city is rather complicated, it is essential to pro- vide a planning staff for the municipality who are capable in urban development planning. The municipal planning staff would be responsible for preparing the comprehensive plan of the city. The planning staff would be nominated by the Minister of the Interior, with the recommendation of the Department of City and Country Planning in the NEDB. They would be selected by the MDC for their competence. The planning staff would select its own chairman and be attached to the mayor's office. The MDC would be responsible to coordinate all plans of the other agencies and integrate them into the comprehensive plan of the city as well as to indicate efficient ways of implementation to responsible Operating agencies. In addition, the MDC would submit all develop- ment plans to the PDC. At the provincial level, the PDC would be composed of representatives of national field Officials as well as officials of semipublic agencies in the province. The chairman of each DDC, the district officer, and the chair- man of each MDC, the mayor, would also be members of the PDC. In order to strengthen the representation of local 247 authorities and the people's organizations in the province, representatives of voluntary organizations and cooperative organizations who are adequately competent in representation of public interests would be included in the PDC. In addition, since members of the provincial assembly remain a limited authority and function as merely a legislative body, it is advantageous that representatives of the provin- cial assembly ‘would be united in the PDC. This would enhance the local representation in planning and develop- ment activities of the provincial areas. For stimulating the government officials in response to deve10pment func- tions, the PDC would be chaired by the provincial governor. However, he would not have the right to vote. Because the province has a large pOpulation and geographic area, multiple levels of government, as well as a complex urban and rural development activities, it is indispensable to have a planning commission at the provin- cial level. The planning commission would carry out sur- veys of all basic data in the province and formulate the comprehensive plan of the province for integrating those plans prepared by other government agencies and lower levels of local authorities. In order to form the provincial planning staff, the Minister of the Interior would nominate a group of qualified people who are capable and interested in overall development planning of urban and regional contexts in consultation with the NEDB. They would be 248 selected by the PDC. In addition, the planning commission would be served by an officer with technical qualifications, appointed by the NEDB; he would be an advisory consultant to the provincial officers and the lower levels of local authorities in planning techniques. Furthermore, the plan- ning commission would advise the lower levels of local authorities in carrying out surveys, preparing plans, and exchanging essential information through the PDC. The commission would select its own chairman and be attached to the office of the provincial governor. Meanwhile, the PDC would provide a session of dis- cussions for coordinating the overall provincial plan submitted by the planning commission with other plans of various agencies and the people's organization. In this way, the approved deve10pment plans and programs as well as ways of carrying out these programs by various agencies would be based on consesnsus of the people's representatives and those of government agencies. Then the PDC would submit all approved plans to the Regional Development Committee (RDC). The PDC would be responsible for encouraging a cooperation among the lower levels of local authorities in a common program and for mediating conflicts among them in the provincial jurisdiction. 249 Coordination at Regional Level Although Thailand is divided into four regions in terms of administrative context, regional authorities for planning and development activities do not exist. Region- ally economic development of the country has not yet been seriously undertaken in relation to the established devel- Opment objectives of the nation. This has been, in part, due to the lack of comprehensive plans at the regional level, and, in part, due to inefficient coordination of the regional coordinating committee because of a depart- mental competition for its interests and affairs. It is not surprising that these shortcomings negate the development planning Of each region. Each region of the country has a large geographic area and population as well as many provinces in which a variety of needs, economic resources, and complex ways of life exist. Moreover, each region has a unique subculture and unique problems. These call for vigorous deve10pment planning to integrate these regions into national economic development planning. A Regional Development Committee would coordinate such planning and actions for economic development. A regional planning commission would prepare a comprehensive plan for integrating urban and regional development into national economic development planning. In this way, regional authorities would be established in order to overcome the previous problems of the country. 250 The Regional Deve10pment Committee would be composed of competent representatives of each PDC as well as of various ministerial departments involved in regional development activities. In addition, the Regional Devel- Opment Committee (RDC) would include highly qualified peOple, who are not necessarily government officials and who may be competent retired personnel, appointed by each Minister of State of a given ministry with the approval of the National Assembly. The RDC would select its own chairman from among its members. The regional planning commission would be composed of highly qualified people who are interested in overall urban and regional deve10pment planning. They would be appointed by the Prime Minister with the recommendation of the NEDB; and they would be selected by the RDC of each region. The regional planning commission would select its own chairman; and it would prepare a comprehensive plan of urban and regional development for each region. Furthermore, technical services would be provided by a regional advisory group appointed by the NEDB. They would be responsible to research technical advice related to planning. The RDC would be responsible for coordinating development plans of all departments and provinces into the urban and regional deve10pment plan prepared by the regional planning commission. In addition, the RDC would 251 indicate the appropriate operating agencies within its jurisdiction for implementation of these development projects besides mediating conflicts and encouraging the cooperation among lower levels of government in relation to joint programs. Then the RDC would submit those develop- ment plans to the NEDB through the National Deve10pment Committee (NDC). Each authority would be located strategically in its region: notably in Pittsanulok for the Northern region, in Nakhon Ratchsima for the Northeastern region, in Hat Yai for the Southern region, and in the GBM for the Central region. These locations are considered to be the center for each region, particularly in terms of the transportation system. At the same time, each regional authority would be tied to the Office of the Prime Minister through its secretariat for administrative and technical services from the NEDB. Coordination at National Level As discussed earlier, the coordination of planning and implementation at the national levels is under the responsibility of the NEDB Executive Committee chaired by the Secretary-General of the NEDB. However, most of the problems related to planning coordination have arisen because of the separation in different administrative structures between the NEDB and the Department of City and 252 Country Planning as the national central planning agencies. On the other hand, the problems related to implementation coordination have been pervasively subject to the political control of the military ruling clique, the Prime Minister and the Cabinet, and to the lack of an active participation of those members of the NEDB Executive Committee, as well as the lack of competent representa- tives from the regional level. In order to overcome these shortcomings, these problems must be corrected to provide for efficient coordination of development planning. In this connection, it is recommended that the Department of City and Country Planning be placed into the NEDB. This would enable the NEDB to facilitate integration of urban and regional development planning into national economic development planning. This would also be useful in guiding the regional development plan- ning in the country in a systematic and logical fashion, as well as in evaluating development programs and projects. The NEDB Executive Committee would be reformed into the National Development Committee (NDP) as an advisory body for coordinating planning and actions of national economic development. The NDP would be composed Of highly qualified and competent people appointed by the Prime Minister with the approval of the National Assembly. Representatives of various ministerial departments and qualified representa- tives of each regional authority would be included in the 253 NDP. The NDP would be chaired by the Prime Minister. However, the Secretary-General of the NEDB would be delegated to direct the NDP for routine functions. The NDP would be responsible for bringing about the appropriate national economic development plans recom- mended by the NEDB. Then the NDP would submit all devel- opment projects, on the basis of priorities, to the Cabinet for decision making. Any project not scrutinized and recommended by the NEDB would not be presented to the Cabinet. Important and large development projects would be finally approved by the National Assembly. Further- more, the NDP would determine appropriate Operating agen- cies for implementing the approved deve10pment projects. In addition, the NDP would be responsible for providing the RDC with technical consultation, research, and informa- tion exchange for development planning and for facilitating the cooperation between regional authorities in common programs. In this fashion, responsibility for the coordinated efforts for planning and implementation of economic devel- Opment planning would be shared at all levels of govern- ment. The participation and integrity of all members should be attained, and effective communication must also be assured from the national central government downwards and from the local levels of government to the national center through the regional authority levels. 254 Therefore, the planning process would be coor- dinated from initial short-range project planning by various operating agencies and people's organizations to a comprehensive planning process which would set long- range development targets and programs. Gradually, this coordination of planning and actions would occur in the areas of technical preparation, definition of resources, financing, and long-range development planning, bringing about efficient integration of urban and regional develop- ment planning into national economic development planning. Linkage of Plan Formulation and Implementation In coordinating the planning and implementation effectively, plan formulation and implementation must be linked at all levels of government. This aspect of the planning process has been a crucial problem in Thai econom- ic development planning, particularly the lack of program- ming techniques and essential information. Since the long-range policies for Thai economic development have certain goals and development objectives, which have been translated into Specific development targets, these development targets would be reached by providing deve10pment programs and projects on a medium and short-term basis. In this way, the translation of deve10pment plans into programs would integrate pre- liminary programs of all departments and agencies at all 255 levels of government. This integeated program would establish a logical basis for decision making as well as permitting optimum timing of investments to all public and private sectors with respect to locations for improvements in each region. Therefore, efficient decisions should be made regarding the lapse of time for executing short- term projects, medium-term programs, and long-term plans. Once the programming technique is introduced with rele- vant information to guarantee adequate results, it would provide a basis for an efficient control and review system of development of the economy. This would be useful for the preparation of a stock of various projects that would attract private investments and foreign aid. However, the Thai government must take the precaution of eliminating all legal and administrative regulations that block potential domestic and foreign investors. Instead, suitable incentives would be provided. These advantages would enable the private sector to par- ticipate in the planning process by providing feasibility studies; by providing precise information on financial and technical assistance and tax incentives offered by the government; and by indicating benefits in return and the experience that the private sector would gain. In the meantime, the improvement of the information system would be essential in both of quantity and quality of information, particularly the breakdown of information 256 at all levels of government. Research would be undertaken by the government agencies and universities in Thailand. Long-term research, which is not subject to the day-to-day exigencies of government agencies, would be undertaken by universities. The government institutions would also conduct research directed towards planning and implementa- tion of economic development. At the planning level, the information system would be required for facilitating the diagnosis of conditions, prediction of trends, formula- tion of plans, modification of policies, and evaluation of consequences of alternative plans and policies. At the implementation stage, the information system would also be needed to formulate, execute, and control the progress of programs and specific projects; and information, in the form of feed-back, would be required to monitor the effect of specific programs, to monitor changing condi- tions which may require modifications in programs, and to assess periodically the state of affairs, especially mal- adjustments and deteriorating conditions, so that correc- tive action could be instituted. Censuses in Thailand would be designed to provide essential data for planning purposes, at all levels of government, with a view to assembling valuable comparative information on a world-wide basis. Moreover, the impor- tant thing to consider in introducing a technologically more advanced information system in a developing country 257 like Thailand is that one is not dealing merely with a bigger and better and more rapid technology for pro- cessing information, but with a new concept of an informa- tion system which requires a different way of thinking and doing things. In addition, the data would be gathered systematically on the basis of close COOperation and coordination between statistical and other information units, at all levels of government, regardless of their hierarchical status, including academic and other non- government institutions. In this fashion, improved re- search and information services would assist in linking plan formulation and implementation besides being useful in efficient decision making, training of personnel for planning and administering development activities at all levels of government. Decentralization of the Government System As evident in earlier discussions, the excessively centralized government system of Thailand has not yet played an active role in seeking an efficient process of national economic deve10pment. Since societal and economic development must be accompanied by greater political and administrative modernization as a prerequisite for such development, it is, therefore, essential that the national central government accept a clear responsibility for modernizing the government system on the basis of a 258 practical decentralization of the government system. It should provide a sound political and administrative frame- work at all levels of government by revising the basic statutes with suitable structure, power, functions, and intergovernmental relations at all levels of government. A Wider-Based Political System On the political level, the military junta should revoke martial law and permit political parties to organize and campaign to allow for popular participa- tion at the local self-government and national central government levels. The government should be based on a democratically popular political system. In this connec- tion, major efforts to increase the honesty of the government should be made; a proper relationship between the political leadership and the bureaucracy should be established; and, eventually, civil leadership should replace the military, with the succession to power by institutionalized selection procedures rather than by military coup. In addition, local self-governments should be reformed so that they would be free from constant changes, modifications, and excessive interventions by the central government, particularly the power of dissolution by the Ministry of the Interior. This would provide for greater popular participa- tion in the economic deve10pment planning process through 259 a democratic parliamentary system at the national level. In the meantime, the pOpular participation in the planning process of such development would be provided at the local level in the form of representatives for coordinating the planning and implementation. This would convince the people that well prepared plans and projects would contri- bute to fulfillment of local needs and interests. Con- sequently, it would encourage pOpular and voluntary partici- pation in government activities designed to benefit the citizens; to educate local initiative; and to increase local awareness of the larger plans and planning machinery required to attack problems everywhere in the country. Moreover, this would make local government authorities more keenly aware of the people's needs. All possible means of communication would be employed in supporting such a participation. Although there has been a widely held belief that the Thai peOple are not very responsive tolthe demeeratic system, in fact, they are”not_allowedwto“bewby—thewgovern- ment. More importantly, this is not an age in which the Thai government can count on popular political apathy and submissiveness as a permanent feature in the Thai society, particularly on the part of youth groups, pro— gressive farmers' cooperatives, labor unions, and student groups. All of these groups must be mobilized for devel- Opment. This would encourage the poeple to support local 260 organization for deve10pment. If these are properly understood, they may supplement each other in the process of economic deve10pment. On the contrary, if Thailand fails to attract the political allegiance of its peOple, national deve10pment and stability may yet fall. Integrated Administrative System Regarding the administrative level, it is recom- mended that an integrated administrative system be set up as part of the decentralized government system to reform the Thai administration. The proposed system is not very different from the existing system. However, reform would be more beneficial if made step-by-step. This integrated administrative system would be based on the concept of partnership between local self-government and the national central government through the regional authority. This would encourage a more coordinated effort and shared responsibility, at all levels of government, through the establishment of effective communication. In addition, the national central government would assist all local authorities in providing essential resources which would enable them to perform their functions efficiently in fulfilling their local needs and interests for economic development activities. In this connection, the integrated administrative system would provide the benefits of uniformity and 261 mobility in the personnel system of the country through a horizontal transfer and vertical transfer at both local and national levels of government. This would assist the weaker local authorities to employ well-qualified persons because local authorities would be able to recruit on a regional and national levels. In this way, the National Civil Service Commission of Thailand would assist local authorities in building up their personnel systems and in other essential matters related to this context. Actually, recruitment of personnel based on education and training, at all levels of government, would be reflected in the national manpower plan. Furthermore, the ease of transfer between horizontal and vertical levels of person- nel would also encourage capable individuals to make the public service as their career because it would assure them of greater opportunities in such a transfer. In the meantime, the training of personnel would be dealt with within the context of deve10pment at all levels of government. At the top level, the training would be oriented toward policy preparation, techniques of administrative coordination, basic research and plan formulation in various fields. At the lower levels, the training would be more concerned with implementation. In addition, training in rural development would be assisted by the national field Officials in plan formula- tion and implementation, especially by the Department of 262 Community Development in the Ministry of the Interior, through the deve10pment committees at the local levels. In terms of financial assistance and supervision, the financing of development programs would be undertaken on an intergovernmental basis, through clearly established procedures by the central government, because adequate finance is a basic resource needed by local authorities. This would enable local authorities to contribute more actively to the local deve10pment process. It must be assured that local authorities would have access to the capital resource that they require for development. Local authorities would have the power to raise revenues in the form of taxes or user charges, and to have a share in the proceeds of taxes collected by the central govern- ment as well as access to loans for expansion of basic facilities. This would assist local authorities to play a vital role in planning and actions of economic develOp- ment throughout the country. Gradually, the local author- ity would have the capability and willingness to assume the responsibilities given by the central government, which would initiate participation in the planning pro- cess, facilitate fulfillment of local needs and aspirations in economic deve10pment activities. 263 Summary and Conclusion A11 Of these recommendations for national develop- ment strategies for integrating national economic and regional urban deve10pment planning are proposed to guide the Thai economic development planning to bring about the equity of benefits from economic growth and income distri- bution throughout the country. A functional hierarchy of the structure of urban growth centers, for industrial investments, in response to the rural deve10pment trans- formation, with increasing agricultural productivity would be built up in each region of the country. The coordina- tion of sectoral planning into urban and regional planning and the coordination of planning and implementation of various agencies would link plan formulation and implementa- tion of such economic development at all levels of govern- ments. In addition, practicable decentralization of the government system would be undertaken on the basis of a democratic system with greater pOpular participatiOn and integrated administration for strengthening the capability of deve10pment planning at all levels of government. These recommended deve10pment strategies are by no means mutually exclusive; on the contrary, they are complementary. The success of these recommendations would depend on their feasibility. CHAPTER VIII SUMMARY, CONCLUSIONS, AND SUGGESTIONS FOR FURTHER STUDIES Summary of Evaluation of Economic Development in Thailand Conceptually, the economic deve10pment planning of a country is related to a deliberate promotion of economic growth and change to achieve the established objectives. The process of such development planning is complex not only because it involves promotion in an economic context but also because it involves the country's institutions from previous deve10pment planning. For example, these institutions are based on political, social, cultural, and other economic and noneconomic value systems. Some of these concepts of economic deve10pment planning were used in Thai economic development as a general philosophy, during the period 1961-71. However, there were many problems related to economic growth and change in Thailand. Equity of benefits of economic growth and income distribution in the country presented particularly severe problems when viewed from previously established goals. 264 265 It is, therefore, necessary to evaluate the past two development plans of Thailand (1961-66 and 1967-71) with the aim of improving economic development planning in Thailand for the future. The central focus of this dissertation is to evaluate the performance of these two deve10pment plans against the established development objectives as well as against the statement of basic hypothesis which are based on a highly centralized government system in which urban and regional development is not integrated into national economic deve10pment planning. This is a complex means for such an analytical study. In addition, a simple method is applied for quantitative measurements based on available statistical data, and with the aid of available qualitative data such as social, political, cultural, and other noneconomic parameters which are related to development. Major Findings During the period before the 18505 Thailand was\ virtually self-sufficient because of its rich agricultural production. However, after the 18503, the economy was weakened by the intervention of powerful Western countries. This trend continued until the late World War II and Korean War boom. By 1959, the Thai government had committed itself to accelerate economic growth and to improve the equity of economic growth and income distribution in the 266 country by producing two formal economic development plans, 1961-66 and 1967-71. These two development plans were formulated by the NEDB, the national central planning agency. Overall Performance As indicated in Chapter III, the performance of the first plan met the overall growth rate of the estab- lished target, 7.3 percent per annum, with an average growth rate of about 8.3 percent per annum. On the con- trary, the performance of the second plan failed to meet the established target, 8.5 percent per annum, having an average growth rate of approximately 7.7 percent per annum. In addition, there were also many industrial sectors which failed to reach the expected targets during the past two development plans. Comparative Performance Capital investment allocation Compared to the other four regions of the country, the GBM had the highest share of capital investments in the country with approximately 26.6 and 33.3 percent for the first and second plan periods respectively, compared to only 14.6 and 18.5 percent which the Southern region had. The GBM led all regions in capital investment per capita per annum, having 2,465 baht for the first plan and 4,047 baht for the second plan. These figures can be compared 267 to the 202 baht and 268 baht which the Northeastern region had during the two periods. Municipal expenditure allocation The distribution pattern of current expenditures for municipalities was also dominated by the GBM, having almost 60 percent of the national current expendi- tures for municipalities during both plans. Structure of economic production Although Thai economic development was aided by the role of the private sector, most private enterprises were engaged in traditional agriculture in the four region with the exception of the GBM. Thus the structure of economic production of these regions was predominantly influenced by the agricultural sector. There was very little structural transformation in nonagricultural sectors, especially in those of the Northern and North- eastern regions, whose agricultural sectors constituted almost 50 percent of their total economic production. Only the GBM had a substantial advance in structural transformation in secondary and tertiary industrial sectors, particularly in those of manufacture and commerce. Labor productivity Furthermore, these four regions were overwhelmingly characterized by agricultural employment, especially in 268 the Northeastern region in which agricultural workers constituted approximately 92 percent of its total labor force. Consequently the agricultural productivity per worker of these regions was very low. During the first plan period, the economic productivity of the GBM yielded 26,220 baht per worker per annum compared to 1,376 baht per worker per annum yielded by agricultural productivity in the Northeastern region. During the second plan period, comparative figures of the GBM to the Northeastern region were 35,217 baht to 1,552 baht. Therefore, the GBM led all regions in structural trans- formation of economic production, as well as in labor productivity. Economic growth distribution In these circumstances, it is not surprising that most benefits of economic growth distribution had been concentrated in the GBM. During the past two development plan periods, the GBM had the highest output distribution in the national output, with approximately 30 percent compared to only 13 percent of the Southern region. This made the disparity of economic growth wider between the GBM and the other four regions of the country. According to measurements, the economic output per capita per annum of the GBM accounted for 9,384 baht for the first plan period, and increased to 12,141 baht for the second plan 269 period, compared to 1,263 baht and 1,556 baht respectively for the Northeastern region. Income distribution In the meantime, a similar pattern of disparities was also evident in income distribution in the country. Most of the benefits of economic growth distribution were reflected in the higher income classes of the urban areas, particularly those of the GBM. This made the disparity of income distribution between the GBM and the rural areas of the country more marked during the past two development plans. Considering these inequalities of economic growth and income distribution, the economic deve10pment pattern tended to be consistent with the pattern of a highly centralized government, with great power concentrated in the GBM, and without regional urban deve10pment integrated into the national economic development planning. These relationships tend to support the basic hypothesis of this dissertation although the significance of their correlation cannot be statistically validated. Summary of Integrated Deve10pment Planning for Thailand If this interpretation is correct, it would seem that the integration of national economic and regional urban deve10pment planning is necessary to overcome these 270 weaknesses. Such an integrated deve10pment planning must be properly placed in national deve10pment strategy to stimulate industrialization in regional urban growth centers which would have the potential for economic growth as well as to increase agricultural productivity for transforming rural deve10pment. This would aid in decentralizing the urbanization process in the country. In addition, this planning seeks to coordinate sectoral and regional urban planning, on the basis of comparative advantages, of the various planning agencies and to implement the functions of all Operating agencies in a coherent fashion at all levels of government. More- over, it requires an appropriate decentralization of the government system to improve the capability of local author- ities to plan and implement measures complementary to the national development objectives. This integrated devel- Opment planning is positively conceived for bringing about equitable economic growth distribution in develop- ing countries. Therefore, the general procedure for integrated development planning of Thailand will require studying natural resources and ecosystems, urbanization and internal migration, economic development planning organization and procedure, and the government system of the country. These have been described in relation to Thai economic deve10pment with the availability of adequate data. The 271 results of these proposed studies will reveal problems and trends of economic development in Thailand. These will also indicate development potentials and recommended deve10pment strategies for such integrated development planning which will realize the development objectives. Major Findings Government System According to the results of the study, there were two major and interrelated sets of problems related to the highly centralized government system of Thailand in its economic development during the past two development periods. On the political level, there was a lcak of democratic popularization for development planning of the country's economy. In the meantime, economic develOp- ment was not sought by the ruling elite, particularly the military. On the administrative level, local self-govern- ment was virtually under the control and supervision of the central government. Thus the economic development planning of the country was not achieving its goals, and the central government was disregarding local needs and requirements. Deve10pment Planning Organization and Procedure In terms of economic development planning organiza- tion and procedure, there were inadequate national economic 272 deve10pment philOSOphies which did not provide the inte- gration of regional urban development. It is not surpris- ing that there had been a lack of coordination of sectoral and regional urban planning in relation to locations for development. In addition, the coordination of planning and implementation providing programming techniques with project analysis and adequate information was not sought at all levels of government. Consequential Problems In this connection, the pattern of developmental investments had been concentrated in the GBM. This resulted in a relatively low structural transformation of economic production , particularly those of secondary and tertiary industrial sectors, in the other four regions with a very low agricultural productivity. These had created an increasing gap of diSparities of economic growth and income distribution between the GBM and the other four regions of the country. But most of the benefits of such a development had been in favor of the GBM; whereas, the other four regions remained poorer. As evidenced by earlier studies, economic problems had been major causes of interrural migration, within and between regions, and the migration from rural areas to the GBM. However, the places of destination of migration had never been prepared to absorb those inmigrants. In 273 addition, this created the unbalanced urbanization process, characterized by the primacy of the GBM in assuming a dominant role in economic, political, social, and cul- tural positions. This tended to impede the economic development of the country itself. Moreover, there were many social problems in the country, such as social tensions, crimes, slums, unemployment, and unhealthy en- vironments as well as the inadequacy of basic utilities and facilities everywhere. At the same time, natural resources were exhausted, and natural ecosystems and physical economic infrastructures and settlement facili- ties in both of rural areas and the GBM were deteriorating. Conclusions On the basis of an excessively centralized system with great power concentrated in the GBM, economic develOp- ment planning was pursued only downward, without inte- grating urban and regional development planning. The requirements and interests of local areas were disregarded. It is not surprising that the coordination of regional urban and sectoral planning was not sought for an alloca- tion pattern of capital investments in apprOpriate loca- tions of different parts of the country.' This resulted in a disproportionate pattern of such allocation so great that the large proportion of capital investments was con- centrated in the GBM. In the meantime, the coordination 274 of planning and implementation was neither provided and was ineffective at all levels of government. Also there was serious weakness in programming techniques and essen- tial basic information for linking plan formulation and implementation. Consequently, there was a great difference between the structural transformation of the economic production and labor productivity between the GBM and the four regions of the country, the GBM being far more successful. Thus the economic growth and income distribution accrued in the GBM so that those regions which contained about 90 percent of the nation's population remained outside the mainstream of deve10pmental benefits. This created in- creasing inequalities of economic growth and income distri- bution in the country. In this connection, there were many problems throughout the country resulting from this unequal economic development such as social dilemmas, natural resource depletion, inadequacy and inefficiency of physical and social facilities as well as of economic infrastructures, and the deterioration of natural ecosystems and physical environments. This interpretation being correct based on pre- vious observations and their consistency occurring in a similar pattern in the economic development of Thailand, it would have supported the statement of the 275 hypothesis. Since this pattern of economic development planning has been recurring, it has tended to prevent the achievement of established development objectives, the acceleration of economic growth, and the equity of economic deve10pmenta1 benefits. This has created a serious threat to national economic stability and national integrity. In these circumstances, the integration of national economic and regional urban deve10pment planning would be optimistic, as potentials of the Thai economic deve10pment for the future, in bringing about the achievement of the development objectives on the basis of antitheses which are relatively consistent with previous integrated develOp- ment planning. With a View to overcoming these short- comings, recommendations of the integrated deve10pment planning will be provided and summarized in the following section. Summary of Recommendations In order to solve the problems of Thai economic development, it is recommended that the national economic and regional urban development strategies be integrated. Such integrated development planning is summarized in the following sections. 276 Structure of Regional Urban Growth Centers in Thailand The regional urban growth centers of Thailand having potentials for industrial deve10pment must be identified. Such urban centers would be identified on the basis of pOpulation size, centers of transportation and communication systems, centers of economic activities for marketing and distribution, and available social and physical facilities. Notable centers for each region would be Chiangmai, Nakhon Sawan, Lampang, and Pittsanulok of the Northern region; Nakhon Ratchsima, Udonthani, and Ubon Ratchthani of the Northeastern region; Hat Yai, Songkhla, and Nakhon Sithammarat of the Southern region; and Chonburi and Ayuthaya of the Central region. These urban centers would be locations for industrial capital investments based on proximity of natural resources as well as on the need response to increase agricultural productivity of rural areas thus providing an impetus to rural development. They would be centers for strengthening each regional economy to be prepared to absorb rural-urban migration. Building up regional urban centers will decentralize the urbanization of and improve each regional economy as well as counteract the economic dominance of the GBM. At the same time, the promotion of agricultural productivity, complementary to urban-industrial development, 277 will be improved in each region by providing the appro- priate expansion of available arable land, irrigation systems, mechanization framework, soil and natural re- sources conservation, as well as by providing a suitable application of technology for increasing yields. In addition, there would be improvement of rural tranSporta- tion systems, of community development, and of agricul— tural extension services related to essentially economic infrastructures. Moreover, agricultural inputs would be less dependent on imported goods and services. Improvement of Economic Development Planning Organization and Procedure In the meantime, an efficient integration of urban and regional deve10pment into the national economic devel- Opment planning in Thailand would require an appropriate economic development planning organization and procedure. It is recommended that these important aspects be improved. Urban and regional planning of the national economy should be broken down into sectoral planning. Thus compre- hensive development plans at all levels of government could be linked in a coherent manner because the capital investment of each deve10pment project would be allocated on the basis of comparative advantages in relation to a geographic location. In this way, deve10pment programs at all levels of government could be integrated to achieve national development objectives. 278 Furthermore, the establishment of organizations for coordination of planning and implementation among various agencies would be provided at all levels of govern- ment. At the national level, the NEDB Executive Committee would be reformed into the National Deve10pment Committee (NDP) with the responsibility for coordinating work. In addition, the Department of City and Country Planning would be transferred from the Ministry of Interior to the NEDB for close coordination of planning as well as for influenc- ing decision making in national deve10pment policies. At the regional level, a deve10pment authority would be established as the Regional Development Committee (RDC) to coordinate planning and implementation of work. A regional planning commission would be created for producing the overall urban and regional comprehensive development plan of each region. Moreover, an advisory group for technical assistance to a regional level and lower levels of local authorities would also be set up. Each regional authority would be located in the center of each region and be tied to the NEDB through its secretariat for administrative purposes and technical services. A similar purpose of coordination would be the responsibility of each development committee at the various levels of local authorities: notably the Provincial, Municipal, District, Sanitary District, and Commune Development Committees; and they would rank respectively 279 in a hierarchical fashion. To make the overall compre- hensive deve10pment plan of the province and municipality, a planning commission would be provided. The plan formu- lation at the district, sanitary district, and commune levels would be assisted by the national field officials, particularly by those of the Department of Community Development in the Ministry of the Interior, on the basis of a self-help process. At all levels of government, each development committee would be responsible for bringing about an appropriate coordination of deve10pment plans and indi- cating ways of implementation of those plans to responsible Operating agencies. In addition, technical assistance from upper levels of government would be provided through each level of deve10pment committee in a hierarchical man- ner. The coordination of planning and actions at various levels of local authority would be the responsibility of representatives of people's organizations and government Officials who form a development committee of each level of local authorities. Regional and National Development Committees would be composed of highly qualified and competent peOple and other representatives of ministries and departments involved in such development activities. However, the Regional Development Committee would also be provided to include those of adequately qualified repre- sentatives of each Provincial Development Committee. 280 If the coordination of planning and implementa- tion, at all levels of government, is to be effective, it is recommended that there be a link established between plan formulation and implementation. Some form of programming technique and project analysis would be applied for trans- lating development plans into integrated development programs having an apprOpriate sequence of development projects with their priorities regarding lapse of time of investments in various geographic locations for all public and private sectors. In this way, development plans, programs, and budgets would be related to each other so that the established deve10pment targets, which are trans- lated from the development objectives of the long-term plan, would be achieved. This would be useful for promoting incentives for inducing private investments, both domestic and foreign investors, as well as guiding the public sector itself in investments and some form of control and monitoring system. Research and information systems for development planning process should be improved, both in quantity and quality, at all levels of government. Such improvements in information systems would provide adequate basic data for formulation, implementation, and evaluation of plans and policies for all development purposes, and for a logical process of decision making, as well as for adminis- tration. The provision of updating census, research, 281 sample survey, continuous reporting and evaluation of the development process would be oriented to end-use in the information system. Therefore, the establishment of close coordination and COOperation of information units, at all levels of government and other academic and non- governmental institutions, would be provided. Decentralization of the Government System In order to strengthen the role of the government system of Thailand in the process of economic development, it is recommended that an appropriate decentralization be required as a prerequisite for political and administra- tive innovations in such a deve10pment based on sound statutes as well as a political and administrative frame- work at all levels of government. On the political level, Thailand certainly needs something more than self-seeking improvisation based on military coups. the political system would be established to reflect pOpular wishes and require- ments as far as practicable in a democratic process at all levels of government. Political parties and other forms of social organizations would be allowed to express their wishes and requirements in government decision making and deve10pment process. This would help to educate the Thai peOple so that they would become integrated into the local and national deve10pment process, with a constructive involvement in political life. In addition, government 282 leadershipand honesty must be established on the basis of substantive criteria. In terms of administration, it is recommended that provision be made for strengthening the local self-govern- ment system on the basis of an integrated administrative system so that local authorities could play a vital role in economic and other development activities. The central government would assist these local self-governments in setting up a personnel system on the basis of horizontal and vertical mobility. This would enhance the capability of local authorities in managing their own affiars, as well as in cooperating and coordinating deve10pment activities. At the same time, the central government would assist local authorities in establishing the finan- cial position for deve10pment with a sound procedure for raising local revenues and also with grants from the central government for using governmental resources. On the whole, the relationship of the central government and local self-government would be established on the basis of partnership, sharing and responsibilities for fulfill- ing local needs as well as national interests. Suggestions for Further Studies This analysis and evaluation of the national economic development plans of Thailand during the period 1961-71, recommending the integration of national economic 283 and regional urban development planning, is by no means a complete study. There is lack of comparative data for all levels of local self-government, related to economic deve10pment as well as social, natural resources, and physical aspects for planning. Therefore, a study based on comparative analysis and evaluation of regional economic deve10pment is necessary. This would be useful in guiding further studies of integrated development planning. It is suggested that further studies be pursued in formulating the comprehensive policy plans, which would be broken down to integrated development programs and a rational sequence of priorities of development projects to be implemented. This would be an appropriate and sys- tematic means of development planning which would bring about the achievements of the established deve10pment objectives of Thailand, the acceleration of economic growth, and the equity of benefits of economic growth and income distribution. In the meantime, different types of devel- opment planning in politics, social needs, population, natural resources, and other economic contexts related to economic deve10pment planning in Thailand would have to be conducted. APPENDICES APPENDIX A GROSS FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION (GFCF) DATA 284 Table A.l--Distribution of Public Capital Investments, at 1962 Prices, by Industrial Sectors (Amounts in Millions of Baht) \ First Development Time Plan (DP) 2nd DP First Second Investment Phase Phase Sectors 1961-63 1964-66 1961-66 1967-71 Agriculture 1,327 2,331 3,658 8,814 Industry & Mining 1,011 1,174 2,185 712 Transport & Comm. 2,538 4,331 6,869 13,209 Power 1,926 2,496 4,422 3,828 Commerce -- -- -- 136 Social Services 3,027 6,159 9,186 17,806 Community Facil. & Welfare 1,749 3,437 5,186 7,925 Public Health 305 696 1,001 2,003 Education 472 1,476 1,948 5,119 Special Programs 501 550 1,051 2,759 Total 9,829 16,491 26,320 44,514 Source: National Planning Division, NEDB. 285 Table A.2--Distribution of GFCF, at 1962 Prices, by Sectors and Regions (Amounts in Millions of Baht) lst Development Plan Time (DP) 2nd DP Region First Second Major Phase Phase Investment 1961- 1964- 1961- 1967- Sectors 63 66 66 71 GBM Public 3,376 5,578 8,974 14,984 Private 8,601 14,487 23,088 41,860 Total 11,977 20,065 32,062 56,844 North Public 1,300 2,135 3,435 6,327 Private 2,459 3,817 6,276 16,899 Total 3,759 5,952 9,711 17,656 North- Public 1,465 2,917 4,382 7,864 eaSt Private 2,759 5,094 7,353 13,375 Total 4,224 8,011 12,235 21,239 Central Public 2,430 4,015 6,445 10,606 Private 4,645 7,187 11,832 19,226 Total 7,075 11,202 18,277 29,832 South Public 1,232 1,843 3,075 4,726 Private 2,332 3,154 5,486 8,741 Total 3,564 4,997 8,561 13,467 Nation Public 9,829 16,491 26,320 44,514 Private 20,771 33,837 54,608 94,624 Grand Total 30,600 50,328 80,928 139,138 Source: National Planning Division, NEDB. APPENDIX B MUNICIPAL REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE DATA 286 .mhnomma .xoom “mow Hmowumeumum Eoum OODOQEOU .moammo amoeumflumum Hmcowumz "mouoom m.vm¢.¢ m.mvm.a m.mmm.~ v.mmm.m H.~mm.~ m.no~.H mucuscamdxm s.mm~.m H.4mm.~ e.emm.~ H.mme.v m.HmH.m o.a~m.a mscm>mm coflumz e.ees s.sma e.mmm s.emm s.smm m.mma muouaccmmxm m.smm A.He~ H.on m.eme e.mmm m.mGH msam>mm nusom m.mmm e.mmm m.eov m.mmm e.mom m.mma manageammxm e.emm H.mmm m.mme e.ees ~.oov ~.o4~ macm>mm Hmuucmo m.eoe m.moa m.smm m.eom m.mmH e.e» musuflwcmdxm m.mmv m.HH~ m.mvm e.mmm m.mmm H.mm macm>mm ummmnunoz m.HHv m.mma e.mmm H.mmm m.svm m.oaa munuflocmmxm m.eom m.mON e.mmm m.eev m.¢m~ m.ema oscm>mm auuoz e.mmm.~ H.mqo.a m.mme.a m.emc.~ m.mmm.H o.Hmn muggencmmxm m.eem.~ v.~mm.a H.4mm.a s.emm.~ e.eqm.a m.smm mscm>mm 2mm Hauhomfl Hauoemfl mmukwma seldoma mouvmma mouaoma mass m a m mcoammm mcoflaaflz mcoammm an .lunmm mo CH mDCOOE¢V mousufloswmxm can mmscwbmm HOQHOHGOZ mo cofluanfiuumwalla.m wanna APPENDIX C GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP) DATA 287 Table C.1-Distribution of GDP, at 1962 Prices, by Industrial Sectors (Arrounts in Millions of Baht) Time First Development Plan Second Development Plan First Second Industrial Phase Phase Sectors 1961-63 1964-66 1961-66 1967-69 1970-71 1967-71 Agriculture 71,547 83,969 155,516 97,960 74,286 172,246 Crops 53,293 61,782 115,075 65,644 51,797 117,441 livestock 9,304 10,102 19,406 11,190 8,192 19,382 Fisheries 3,042 5,146 8,188 8,550 8,947 17,497 Forestry 4,108 6,939 11,047 8,103 5,350 13,453 NOnagriculture 120,400 158,401 278,801 215,008 174,168 389,176 Nuning & Quarrying 2,223 3,552 5,775 5,322 3,654 8,976 manufacturing 26,821 36,805 63,626 50,293 42,970 93,263 Construction 9,747 14,368 24,115 21,534 14,084 35,618 PoweerWater Supply 1,090 1,896 2,986 3,599 4,087 7,686 Transport & Comm. 13,676 16,970 30,646 21,025 16,754 37,779 Cbnnerce 30,253 39,052 69,305 51,945 42,857 94,802 Social Services 36,592 45,668 82,260 61,134 49,762 110,896 Banking & Business 4,370 6,617 10,987 10,757 10,134 20,891 Ownerships of Dwelling 5,108 5,588 10,696 6,287 4,668 10,955 PUblic Admin. 8,683 10,208 18,891 12,955 10,780 23,735 Services 18,432 23,340 41,772 31,024 24,180 55,204 Tbtal GDP 191,947 242,370 434,317 312,968 248,454 461,422 Sggrge: National Accounts Division, NEDB. 288 Table C.2-—Distribution of GDP, at 1962 Prices, by Industrial Sectors of the GBM.(Amounts in Millions of Baht) First Development Plan Second Development Plan Time First Ekxnmd Industrial Phase Phase Sectors 1961-63 1964-66 1961-66 1967-69 1970-71 1967-71 Agriculture 236 271 507 284 176 460 CrOps 236 271 507 284 176 460 Livestock - -- - - -- - Fisheries - -- -- - -- -- FOrestry - -— - -- - - NOnagriculture 51,227 68,829 120,038 93,604 76,457 170,061 Mining & Quarrying - " " "' "' "' .Manufacturing 11,673 16,572 28,245 23,633 21,408 45,041 Cbnstruction 3,503 4,917 ’ 7,420 7,422 4,847 12,269 Power & water Supply 491 738 1,229 1,606 1,533 3,139 Transport & Comm. 6,479 8,348 14,827 10,043 7,970 18,013 Cbnnerce 13,433 17,719 31,152 22,012 16,210 38,222 Social Services 15,965 20,884 36,849 29,116 25,075 54,191 Banking & Business 3,166 4,808 7,974 7,793 7,308 15,101 Ownership of Dwelling 1,623 1,853 3,476 2,359 1,911 4,270 Public.Admin. 3,273 3,798 7,071 4,721 3,911 8,632 Services 7,503 10,425 17,928 14,293 11,945 26,238 TOtal GDP 51,463 69,100 120,545 93,888 76,633 150,521 Source: National Accounts Division, NEDB. 289 Table C.3-Distribution of GDP, at 1962 Prices, by Industrial Sectors of the Northern Region (Amounts in Millions of Baht) First Development Plan Second Development Plan Time First Second Industrial Phase Phase Sectors 1961-63 1964-66 1961-66 1967-69 1970-71 1967-71 Agricultre 15,362 19,251 34,613 24,323 17,926 42,249 crops 11,322 14,632 25,954 19,034 7,635 26,669 Livestock 2,360 2,517 4,877 2,618 1,949 4,567 Fisheries 372 186 459 160 327 487 FOrestry 1,407 1,925 3,332 2,509 1,715 4,224 NOnagriculture 14,398 17,797 32,195 23,581 19,635 43,216 Mining & Quarrying 118 248 366 659 642 l, 301 .Manufacturing 2,947 3,570 6,517 4,227 3,494 7,721 Construction 1,289 1,837 3,126 2,837 2,087 4,924 Power &‘Water Supply 367 703 1,070 1,369 1,517 2,886 Transport & Chant 1,669 1,705 3,374 2,096 1,628 3,724 Cbnmeroe 3,837 4,874 8,711 6,511 2,957 9,468 Social Services 4,171 4,860 9,031 5,882 4,738 10,620 Banking & Business 232 313 545 455 436 891 Ownership of Dwelling 580 615 1,195 650 463 1,113 Public Admin, 1,144 1,345 2,489 1,675 1,410 3,085 Services 2,215 2,587 L 4,802 3,102 2,429 5,531 TOtal GDP 29,760 37,048 66,808 47,904 37,561 85,465 Sggrgg: National Accounts Division, NEDB. 290 Table C.4--Distribution of GDP, at 1962 Prices, by Industrial Sectors of the Northeastern Region.(Amounts in Millions of Baht) First Developnent Plan Second Development Plan Time First Second Industrial Phase Phase Sectors 1961-63 1964-66 1961-66 1967—69 1970-71 1967-71 Agricultre 19,115 22,318 41,433 24,336 18,972 43,308 Crops 14,752 17,225 31,977 18,357 14,894 33,251 livestock 3,703 3,004 5,707 3,640 2,585 6,225 Fisheries 508 814 1,322 922 480 1,402 Forestry 1,092 1,275 2,367 1,417 1,014 2,431 NOnagricudture 14,396 19,127 33,523 25,673 20,882 46,555 Nfining & Quarrying 66 154 220 350 270 620 Manufacturing 2,753 3,386 6,139 4,258 3,812 8,070 Construction 1,463 2,815 4,278 4,236 3,663 7,899 Power & water Supply 63 116 179 255 259 514 Transport & Chunk 1,361 1,754 3,115 2,331 1,788 4,119 Chunerce 3,500 4,579 8,079 6,363 5,736 12,099 Social Services 5,190 5,381 10,571 7,880 6,575 14,455 Banking & Business 127 202 329 365 370 735 OwnerShip of Dwelling 775 838 1,613 911 641 1,552 Public Admin. 1,488 1,729 3,217 2,193 1,885 4,078 Services 2,800 2,612 5,412 4,411 3,679 8,090 TOtal GDP 33,511 41,445 74,956 50,009 39,854 89,863 Source: National Accounts Division, NEDB. 291 Table C.5—-Distribution of GDP, at 1962 Prices, by Industrial Sectors of the Central Region (Amounts in Millions of Baht) First Development Plan Second Development Plan Time First Second Industrial Phase Phase Sectors 1961-63 1964—66 1961-66 1967-69 1970-71 1967-71 Agriculture 25,001 27,939 52,940 30,604 23,102 53,706 Crops 18,124 19,987 38,111 38,932 14,145 33,077 Livestock 3,002 3,304 9,308 4,036 2,730 6,766 Fisheries 1,238 1,946 3,184 4,745 4,388 9,133 Forestry 6,237 2,841 9,078 2,944 1,894 4,838 NOnagriculture 25,626 34,852 60,478 49,583 39,352 88,935 .Mining & Quarrying 660 1,140 1,800 1,695 1,240 2,935 Manufacturing 7,420 10,597 18,017 14,852 11,414 26,266 Construction 2,245 3,274 5,519 4,135 3,251 7,386 Power & water Supply 112 190 304 523 463 986 Transport & Cbnnu 2,362 3,380 5,742 4,255 3,786 8,041 Commerce 4,987 6,567 11,554 11,559 9,395 20,954 Social Services 7,616 9,355 16,971 12,276 9,217 21,493 Banking & Business 580 953 1,533 1,585 1,624 3,209 Ownerships of Dwelling 1,628 1,624 3,252 1,657 1,152 2,809 Public Admin. 2,001 2,405 4,406 3,249 2,553 5,802 Services 3,470 4,373 7,843 5,785 3,888 9,673 Tbtal GDP 50,627 62,791 113,418 80,187 62,454 142,641 Source; National.Aocounts Division, NEDB. 292 Table C.6-Distribution of GDP, at 1962 Prices, by Industrial Sectors of the Southern Region (Amounts in Millions of Baht) First Development Plan Second Development Plan First Second Industrial Phase Phase Sectors 1961-63 1964-66 1961-66 1967-69 1970-71 1967-71 Agriculture 11,834 14,191 26,025 18,413 14,110 32,523 crOps 8,909 9,816 18,725 11,875 6,702 18,577 Livestock 1,239 1,277 2,516 1,325 929 2,254 Fisheries 963 2,200 3,163 4,141 3,752 7,893 Forestry 723 898 1,621 1,072 727 1,799 NOnagriculture 14,751 17,795 32,547 22,567 17,842 40,409 Mining & Quarrying 1,379 2,010 3,389 2,411 1,502 3,913 Manufacturing 2,028 2,697 4,725 3,910 2,842 6,752 Construction 1,245 1,525 2,770 1,999 1,457 3,456 Power & water Supply 57 149 206 296 315 611 Transport & Cbnnu 1,797 1,783 3,580 2,015 1,582 ,3597 Camerce 4, 496 5, 313 9, 809 6,717 5, 987 12, 704 Social Services 3,750 4,318 8,068 5,219 4,157 9,376 Banking & Business 265 341 606 457 396 853 Ownership of Dwelling 603 663 1,266 722 501 1,223 Public Admin. 776 931 1,707 1,197 1,021 2,218 Services 2,106 2,383 4,489 2,843 2,239 5,082 Total GDP 26,586 31,986 58,572 40,980 31,952 72,932 Sgurge; National Account Division, NEDB. APPENDIX D URBAN AND RURAL POPULATION DATA 293 .msmauomma .xoom umww Hmowumwumum .moammo Hoowumwumum Hocowumz ha cowumaomom omumawumm An .mOHmmO HMUHumHumum HmCOHumz .OBQH UGM ome MO mmemGwU COHUMHDQOA Aw umwOHSOm chm.nam.qm mao.vmm.am mwa.a~o.m~ oam.sm~.m~ Hmuoa wanna mma.mao.m~ mam.mmo.s~ Nam.aos.¢~ mma.mas.m~ mmnunammnoncsaaoz ~m~.¢mm.m mom.mmk.e GH~.mHm.m mmm.ms~.m mmnunammnoncsz conumz 45G.Hs~.¢ who.mmm.m ~¢¢.Gmm.m mom.ak~.m Hmuoa mam.oms.m mho.mm¢.m mam.¢aa.m ~os.~¢m.~ mmnunammnoncsscoz mso.o¢m moo.¢sq mmm.amm mm~.mmm mmnunammnoncsz apnom -m.mmm.s H~¢.sam.b omm.m¢m.m mqm.msm.m Hmuoa mom.oam.o Gom.q~m.o oa~.mo~.m oH~.~Ho.o mmnunammnoncsacoz mas.¢~m mam.~vs omo.oqm mms.amm mmnunammnoncsz Hmuucmu osa.m~o.~a mmm.mao.aa m~5.mmm.m msm.amm.m annoy mHH.HHm.HH svm.-m.oa mmm.mmq.m mom.msm.m mmnunammnonase:oz ummm mmo.vam www.mvw moa.mmm msH.~Hm mmnunammnoncsz uauuoz mm».mmv.s asm.mmm.o mma.mm~.m Goa.m~a.m Hmuoa mom.oom.m mmm.moe.o mma.m~m.m Hs>.mmm.m mmnunammnoncsscoz mka.m~m Hmk.mhe H-.¢He mmm.nmm mmaunammfloncsz auuoz . . Asmuc mmnunammnonasz mmo.osm m omn.qam.~ Ham ooa.~ omm.mos.a Ausmuaoaa can xoxmamm c0fimmm mosma gamma ammma momaa mane mcowmwm an cOMuooHHumwo cowunasoom Hmuom pom cmoHDIIH.o manna Table D.2--Percentage Distribution of Urban 294 P0pu1ation by Regions and Rural Time Region 1960 1963 1967 1970 GBM (Municipality) 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 North Municipalities 6.4 6.6 6.9 7.1 Nonmunicipalities 93.6 93.4 93.1 92.9 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 North- Municipalities 3.5 3.7 4.0 4.3 eaSt Nonjunicipalities 96.5 96.3 96.0 95.7 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Central Municipalities 8.5 9.4 10.2 10.8 Nonmunicipalities 91.5 90.6 89.8 89.2 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 South Municipalities 10.0 10.9 12.0 12.7 Nonmunicipalities 90.0 89.1 88.0 87.3 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Nation Municipalities 12.5 13.7 14.9 15.7 Nonmunicipalities 87.5 86.3 85.1 14.3 Grand Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Source: Computed from Table D.1. APPENDIX E LABOR FORCE DATA 295 .AOmzv mOflMMO Q .Aomzv moflmwo Hmoa .Umflgmum HMCOHUMZ s FONstma . OhmH USN ome .mwmfimfi m m¢ m s H tha . HflMQE Hem. . mom ovo. hmm wa . Am "mmOHd How ma «ma. .m omm.mom.m «ca www.ma cm was NH an . . awn.sm . H6669 a cam. m 5mm an a m was a mum Nomewwmsfl FNN~wmmsH M$M~¢MM~HH WWDOHHOMGOZ m . owe. a DuHflOHHm mma.mom.a mmw.wmm. mas.mmm H mam.¢~s.a . < coflumz s Hhm~ ~ H NvmamesH ONm~©¢N 0H5 HMUOB on .mon m mHo.aHo. mam hsv.a pasoflnmmcoz o mmhsm NvmsmmM~ “Qmsmmm Economm~m cpsom mvm. . N hvm.mmm.m www.Hom OH5 HMHOB Whmawwm m mHNsmomsm aHb @mm~N WHfiUHHDMGOZ . a Nmm. ~ H5HH50HHU who mVBam WMM.WMW~ macawmm m mmmsmmm.¢ 4 Hflhpde \ «me. . m mmm.ooo.m mHH.Hmm on: Hmuoa .HOh m amp. . mom mmm.¢ uasonummaoz mmn. . Hm¢.omv m mom.m Hump can m om~.mmm.~ mmo.smv mmmummm.~ -aunoz mam. . mm¢.mns.~ oom.mmm was Hmuoa mao.m~o H me.oom mam oom.~ pasonummcoz meswwcsH Nmmsfimw hHHsomF M a GHUHHQUHHU< S mmm.NN moo.HMN whh.va HHOZ HHH.mH Na has Hmuo h s 0H5“ B onma vm mm Homaummco n he 0H5 z n ad moma pasonuma saw as HmwuumsocH coammm mCO Hmmm % __ W m .H II o m 058 o I H m H BIBLIOGRAPHY BIBLIOGRAPHY Alonso, Williams. Regional Development and Planning. Cambridge: M.I.T. Press, 1964. Atlas of Southeast Asia. London: McMillan and Co., 1964. Bangkok-Thonburi Municipal Authority. Report of Housing and Social Problems in Bangkok Metropdlis. Bangkok: 1972, p. 22. Baster, Nancy. Measuring Development. London: Frank Cass, 1972. Blanchard, W. Thailand: Its Pegple, Its Society, Its Culture. New Haven: HRAF Press, 1958. Breese, Gerald. Urbanization in Newly Developing Countries. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1966. Bruton, Henry. Principles of Development Economics. Englewood: Prentice-Hall, 1965. Cantonese, Anthony. "System Planning: The Challenge of the New Generation of Planners." Journal of the Town and Countrnglanning 104 (April 1968): 168-185. Chapman, E. C. Internal Migration in Thailand. Hobart: ANZAAS Conference, 1965, pp. 7-22. Domar, E. D. Essays in the Theory of Economic Growth. London: Oxford University Press, 1957, pp. 16-35. Friedman, John. Urbanization, Planning, and National Development. Beverly Hills: Sage Publications, 1973. . A Spatial Framework for Rural Development: A Rgport to the U.S. Agency for International Development. Los Angeles: University of Cali- fornia Press, 1974. 296 297 Goldstein, Sydney. The Demography of Bangkok: A Case Study of Differentials between Big City and Rural Pepulatipp, Bangkok: Chulalongkorn University Press, 1972, p. 23. Hagen, Everette E. Planning Economic Development. Homewood: Richard Irwin, 1963. Hansen, Alvin H. "Economic Progress and Declining POpula- tion Growth." American Economic Review 39 (March 1939): 1-15. Hansen, Niles. Growth Centers in RegionaliEconomic Devel- opment. New York: Free Press, 1973. Harris, G. L. U.S. Armnyandbook for Thailand. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office, 1968. Hauser, Philip M. Urbanization in Asia and the Far East. Calcutta: 1957. Hoover, E. M. An Introduction to Regional Economic. Pittsburgh: University of Pittsburgh Press, 1971. Ingram, J. C. Economic Change in Thailand, 1850-1960. Stanford: Stanford University Press, 1971. Institute of Pepulation Studies. The Longitudinal Study of Social, Economic, and Demographic Change in Thailand. Bangkok: Chulalongkorn University Press, 1971, pp. 35-48. . The Rural and Urban Population of Thailand: ComparatIVe Profiles. Bangkok: Chulalongkorn University Press, 1972. . Perspective on Thai Population. Bangkok: Chulalongkorn University, 1974. International Labor Office. Report to the Thai Government on Internal Migration. Geneva: ILO, 1965. Jacob, Norman. Modernization without Development: Thai- land as an Asian Case Study. New York: Praeger Publishers, 1971. Jacobson, Leo. Urbanization and National Development. Beverly Hills: Sage Publications, 1971. Kindleberger, C. P. Economic Development. New York: McGraw-Hill, 1965. 298 Kingsbury, J. B. Introduction to the Principles of Public Administration in Thailand. Bangkok: Thammasat University Press, 1961. Kuznets, Simon. Modern Economic Growth. New Haven: Yale University Press, 1966. Lefeber, Lewis. Regional Development and Prospects in Southeast Asia. The Hague: UNRISD, 1971. Lewis, Arthur. Development Planning. London: Oxford University Press, 1966. Litchfield and Associates. Greater Bangkok Plan, 1990. Bangkok: 1960. Malthus, T. R. "On the Progress of Wealth." In Studies in Economic Development pp. 49-59. Edited by Bernard Okun. New York: Holt, Rine- hart and Winston, 1961. Marx, Karl. "Capital." In Studies in Economic Develop- ment, pp. 71-83. Edited by Bernard Okun. New York: Holt, Rinehart and Winston, 1961. Meinkoth, Marian R. "Migration in Thailand with Particular Reference to the Northeast." Economic and Business Bulletin 2 (June 1962): 3-45. Mill, Stuart J. "Economic Progress and the Stationary State." In Studies in Economic Development, pp. 60—70. Edited by Bernard Okun. New York: Holt, Rinehart and Winston, 1961. Millikan, Max F. A Strategy of Development. New York: Praeger Publicatibns, 1973, p. 5. Ministry of Interior. Facts about CommunitygDevelopment Programs in Thailand. Bangkok: 1965. . Housing_Prob1ems in Bangkok-Thonburi. Bangkok: 1970, p. 22. . Department of City and Country Planning; History, Function and Future Programs. Bangkok: 1971. . You and Department of Community Development. Bangkok: 1972. 299 Muktapanda, Chai. "The Sinking of Bangkok." In Report of the Seminar of Problems in Bangkok Metropolis. Bangkok: Chulalongkorn University Press, 1972, pp. 119-123. National Economic Development Board. National Economic Development Plan of Thailand, 1961-1966. Bangkok: 1964. . Thailand's Economic Situation. Bangkok: 1967. . National Economic Development Plan of Thailand, 1967-1971. Bangkok: 1968. . Summary of the Repgrt on Population of Executive Committee to His Excellency, the Prime Minister of Thailand. Bangkok: 1970, pp. 1-3. . National Income of Thailand, 1960—1971. Bangkok: 1973. . Regional Gross Domestic Products of Thailand, 1960-1971. Bangkok: 1973. National Statistical Office of Thailand. Report of Popula- tion Census, 1960. Bangkok: 1962. . Report of the Household Expenditures Survey, 1963. Bangkok: 1965. . Report of the Labor Force Survey, 1963. Bangkok: 1965. . ProvincialLDistrict, and Municipal Statistical Directory,1965. Bangkok: 1968. . Report of the Labor Force Survey, 1967. Bangkok: 1969. . Report of the Household Expenditure Survey, 1968. Bangkok: 1970. . Report of Population and Housing Census, 1970. Bangkok: 1972. . Report of the Household Expenditure Survey, 1971. Bangkok: 1973. . Statistical Yearbook of Thailand, 1960-1971. Bangkok: 1973. 300 Obudho, Robert. Urbanization, National Development, and Regional Planning. New York: Praeger Publishers, 1974. Phavivhitr, Chamriang. Migration in the Resettlement Area of Kamphangpet. Bangkok: Thammasat University Press, 1972, pp. 116-134. Report of the Seminar of Problems in Bangkok Metropolis. Bangkok: Chulalbngkorn University, 1972. Richardo, David. "On Economic Growth." In Studies in Economic Development, pp. 71-83. Edited by Bernard Okun. New York: Holt, Rinehart and Winston, 1961. Riggs, Fred W. Thailand: The Mode£nization of Bureau- cratic Polity. Honolulu: East-West Center,‘1966. Schumpeter, Joseph. "The Theory of Economic Development." In Deve10pment: Theory, History, Policy, pp. 85-99. Edited—by Gerald’M. Meier. New York: John Wiley and Sons, 1957. Siffin, W. J. The Thai Bureaucragy: Institutional Change and Development. Honolulu: East-West Center, 1966. Silcock, T. H. Thailand: Social and Economic Studies in Development. Canberra: Australian National Uni- versity Press, 1967. Smith, Adam. "The Wealth of Nations." In Studies in Eco- nomic Development, pp. 32-41. Edited by Bernard Okun. New York: Holt, Rinehart and Winston, 1961. Sutton, J. L. Problems of Politics and Administration in Thailand. Bloomington: Indiana University Press, 1962. Thailand: National Resources Atlas. Bangkok: Royal Thai Survey Office, 1966. United Nations. Department of Economic and Social Affairs. Decentralization for National and Local Development. New York: 1962. . Report of Rural Development Evaluation Mission in Ceylon. New York: 1962. . "Urbanization: Development Policies and Plan- ning." International Social Development Review 1 (1968). 301 . Adminigtrative Aspects of Urbanization. New York: 1970. . "Social Policy and Planning in National Development." International Social Development Review 2 (1970). . Urbanization in the Second United Nations Develgpment Decade. New York: 1970. . "Unified Socioeconomic Development and Planning." International Social Development Review 3 (1971). . Public Administration in the Second United Nations Development Decade. New York: 1971. . "Regional Socioeconomic Development." Interna- tional Social Development Review 4 (1972). United Nations. Economic Commission for Asia and the Far East. Economic Development Planning in Asia and the Far East. Bangkok: 1960. . Atlas of Physical, Economic and Social Resources of the Lower Mekong Basin. New York: 1968. . Programming Techniques for Economic Development. Bangkok: 1969. . Problems of Integration of the Private Sector into the National Economic Plan. Bangkok: 1970. . Interrelations between Internal Migration and the Environments in ECAFE Region. Bangkok: 1971. United Nations. Research Institute of Social Development. Level of Living and Economic Growth. Geneva: 1969. . Distribution of Income and Economic Growth. Geneva: 1970. . Contents and Measuremepts of Socio-Economic Development. Geneva: 1972. Wichiencharoen, Adul. "Movement of Population within Thailand." Journal of Public Administration 2 (October 1960):119-128. 302 Wilcox, Clair. The Planning and Execution of Economic Develgpment in Southeast Asia. Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1965. Williams, Llewelyn. Vegetation of Southeast Asia: Studies of Forest Types. Washington, D.C.: USDA, 1965. Williamson, Harold F. Economic Development: Principles and Patterns. Englewood: Prentice-Hall, 1954. Wilson, David. Politics in Thailand. Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1962.