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I ‘ ‘ , v \ amt “if“:‘szi ~11},- l - t ~ . u , flaw {w fil'. - ""' ‘4'.” D1 - with \H: ' ‘ 1 l 41:19. .9 This is to certify that the dissertation entitled i PSYCHOTHERAPY OUTCOME AND THE COURSE OF THE THERAPEUTIC ALLIANCE presented by Michelle Rae Klee has been accepted towards fulfillment of the requirements for Ph . D . degree in PSJLchology WW Major professor Norman Abeles, Ph.D. Date em er 10 l 86 MS U is an Affirmative Action/Equal Opportunity Institution 0-12771 MSU RETURNING MATERIALS: ace in 00 rop to remove this checkout from LIBRARIES “ your record. FINES will be charged if 550E is returned after the date ‘ -~—~‘,, . stamped below. “III 2. 5M¥ ‘ J-JJLQ or}? x. mill. C) VOW/fl) 2/” ”‘ 6/144 0 MAGIC é” ‘” “twat? PSYCHOTHERAPY OUTCOME AND THE COURSE OF THE THERAPEUTIC ALLIANCE BY Michelle Rae Klee A DISSERTATION Submitted to Michigan State University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY Department of Psychology 1986 'K/h) ~——\’~. v ABSTRACT PSYCHOTHERAPY OUTCOME AND THE COURSE OF THE THERAPEUTIC ALLIANCE BY Michelle Rae Klee The failure of researchito consistently validate the theoretical importance of the therapeutic alliance in predicting psychotherapy outcome was hypothesized to be a consequence of an inadequately complex approach to the alliance research, anm approach particularly likely to obscure the influence of therapist variables. The primary purpose of this study was to address the complexity of the therapeutic alliance by studying the interaction of the patient's initial potential for establishing a relationship, the course of patient and therapist contributions to the alliance, and psychotherapy outcome, defining outcome in clinically significant terms. A second objective of the study was to assess the applicability of the Therapeutic Alliance Rating Scale (TARS) to a heterogeneous sample of psychotherapy cases. Thirty-twr> adult psychotherapy' patients were classified as having a high or low prognosis for establishing a relationship based on clinical judge ratings on the TARS of their contributions to the therapeutic alliance in the first session of treatment. For each case, judges also rated patient and therapist contributions to the alliance for an early, middle, and late session in Michelle Rae Klee treatment. Patients were assigned to one of three outcome groups, based on the application of criteria for clinically significant improvement to scores on the SCL-90-R. As predicted, from the first session of treatment, patients demonstrated a potential for establishing a therapeutic relationship that was predictive of their capacity to contribute to a therapeutic alliance throughout treatment. The results partially supported the hypothesis of an increase from early to late therapy in the positive contributions to the alliance made by patients who achieved a reliable improvement in symptom level. Contrary to predictions, the influence of therapist behavior on process and outcome was no greater for low prognosis than for high prognosis patients. No validation for the theoretical importance of patient or therapist contributions to the therapeutic alliance in predicting outcome was obtained. An unpredicted interaction of phase of treatment and outcome was found for therapist negative contributions to the alliance. Further research is needed before a conclusion can be drawn about the applicability of the TARS to a heterogeneous sample of psychotherapy cases. To my husband Ken and to my family iv ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I wish to acknowledge the people who assisted me in this research. Dr. Norm Abeles was valuable as my dissertation committee chairperson not only for his expertise in the area of psychotherapy research, but for his ability to strike a balance between allowing me autonomy and providing me with guidance. Dr. Ralph Levine gave generously'of his time and talents during the design and data analysis phases of this research project. I am indebted.to my other committee members,lh3 Robert Caldwell and Dr. Bertram Karon, for their careful reading and thoughtful comments on my work. I would like to express my appreciation to Ann Isenberg and Gary Gunther, who spent numerous hours listening to and rating audiotapes of psychotherapy sessions for this study. Finally, I would like to acknowledge the assistance and support of‘Timothy Eaton, with whom I collaborated in the data collection process. TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . viii LIST OF FIGURES. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . x CHAPTER I. INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 II. REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE. . . . . . . . . . . . 6 Concept of the Therapeutic Alliance . . . . . . 6 History . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 Generalization of the concept . . . . . . . 10 Core components of the therapeutic alliance. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 Patient contributions . . . . . . . . . . . l3 Therapist contributions . . . . . . . . . . 14 Course of the alliance. . . . . . . . 15 Research Related to the Therapeutic Alliance. . 16 Influential findings. . . . . . . . . . . . l6 Client-centered process variables . . . . . 18 Measuring the therapeutic alliance. . . . . l9 Predicting the strength of the therapeutic alliance. . . . . . . . . . . 20 Patient variables in relationship to outcome. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 Therapist variables in relationship to outcome. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 Course of the alliance. . . . . . . . . . . 28 Early indicators of the alliance and outcome . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 Phase of treatment and outcome: Patient contributions . . . . . . . . . . 31 Phase of treatment and outcome: Therapist contributions . . . . . . . 33 Interaction of patient predisposition with outcome. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36 Conclusions from the therapeutic alliance research . . . . . . . . . . . 40 Clinical Significance of Outcome Criteria . . . 42 The evaluation of psychotherapeutic outcome . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42 Criteria for clinical significance. . . . . 45 vi III. Statement of Problem and Objectives Hypotheses. IV. METHOD. . . . Participants. Procedure . . . Variables . . . Instruments . . V. RESULTS . OBJECTIVES AND HYPOTHESES Design and Overview of Statistical Analyses Classification of Subjects. Reliability . . Hypotheses Testing Analyses Prognosis Measure Outcome . . . . Phase of Treatment. Intercorrelations Between Alliance Subscales. Summary of Results. VI. DISCUSSION. . Prognosis for the Alliance. Prognosis for the Alliance and Outcome. . Patient Contributions to the Alliance . . Therapist Contributions Course of the Alliance. . Outcome . . . . Validation of the TARS. . Therapeutic Alliance. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION. . Applicability of the TARS Clinically Significant Criteria for Conclusion. . . APPENDIX . . . . Manova Summary Tables LIST OF REFERENCES vii to the Alliance Outcome 49 49 53 56 56 57 58 63 73 73 75 76 78 89 94 97 98 100 103 105 108 110 118 124 126 130 137 137 144 145 146 148 148 152 TABLE LIST OF TABLES Gross Pathology Index Data Used in Determining Outcome Criteria. . . . . . . . . . 60 Mean Intensity Scores for the Patient Positive Contribution Scale . . . . . . . . . . 79 Mean Intensity Scores for the Patient Negative Contribution Scale . . . . . . . . . . 80 Summary of 2 (Prognosis) x 3 (Outcome) x 3 (Phase) Manova Results for the Patient Positive Contribution Scale . . . . . . . . . . 82 Summary of 2 (Prognosis) x 3 (Outcome) x 3 (Phase) Manova Results for the Patient Negative Contribution Scale . . . . . . . . . . 83 Mean Intensity Scores for the Therapist Positive Contribution Scale . . . . . . . . . . 86 Mean Intensity Scores for the Therapist Negative Contribution Scale . . . . . . . . . . 87 Summary of 2 (Prognosis) x 3 (Outcome) x 3 (Phase) Manova Results for the Therapist Positive Contribution Scale . . . . . . . . . . 90 Summary of 2 (Prognosis) x 3 (Outcome) x 3 (Phase) Manova Results for the Therapist Negative Contribution Scale . . . . . . . . . . 91 Intercorrelations Between TARS Subscales for Each Phase of Treatment . . . . . . . . . . 99 Summary of 2 (High vs. Low Outcome) x 3 (Phase) Analysis of Variance for Patient Positive Contribution Scale . . . . . . . . . . 148 Summary of 2 (High vs. Low Outcome) x 3 (Phase) Analysis of Variance for Patient Negative Contribution Scale . . . . . . . . . . 149 viii A-4. Summary of 2 (Reliable Change vs. No Change) x 3 (Phase) Analysis of Variance for Therapist Positive Contribution Scale: Low Prognosis Patients. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 150 Summary of 2 (Reliable change vs. No Change) x 3 (Phase) Analysis for Variance for Therapist Negative Contribution Scale: Low Prognosis Patients. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 151 ix FIGURE 1. LIST OF FIGURES Outcome x Phase interaction for Therapist Negative Contribution Score . . . . . 96 INTRODUCTION A relationship between two people, a relationship in which a person in distress seeks the assistance of another person professionally qualified to help (Tarachowy 1963h is the unifying element in the myriad forms of individual psychotherapy which have evolved since Sigmund Freudis introduction of psychoanalysis. Regardless of variations in therapeutic technique, from the exploration and interpretation of the psychoanalyst to the executive direction of the behavior therapist, all therapy takes place within the context of a relationship. Though transference and resistance have been the aspects of the patient-therapist relationship emphasized ix: the psychoanalytic literature (Hartley & Strupp, 1983), the rational, positive attachment of the patient to the therapist has been recognized as "the vehicle of success (Freud, 1912, p. 105)" in psychotherapy since the early writings of Freud. The idea of an undistorted, beneficial attachment of the patient to the analyst as a prerequisite to successful psychoanalysis has been elaborated over time into a theoretical construct which impacts other therapeutic modalities and is labeled the therapeutic alliance. The therapeutic alliance can be defined as "the 2 observable ability of the therapist and patient to work together in a realistic, collaborative relationship based on mutual respect, liking, trust and commitment to the work of treatment” (Foreman & Marmar, 1985, p. 922). The theoretical importance of both patient and therapist contributions to the therapeutic alliance as a prerequisite to successful outcome in psychotherapy has not been consistently borne out by research. Though the accumulathmn of data indicates that positive patient contributions to the alliance are associated with good outcome, the data on patient negative contributions is more equivocal. As in much of the psychotherapy research literature, the hypothesiscnfa.significant influence of therapist behavior on outcome is not well supported in the therapeutic alliance research. Perhaps the failure to validate empirically theory and clinical experience stems in part from the conventional approach of basing data analyses on the entire sample of patients, regardless of the potential of patients for forming a therapeutic relationship or their prognosis for outcome. There is pueliminary evidence that specific alliance-related behaviors may have different implications for outcome depending upon patient predispositional variables. Significant relationships between the course of alliance and outcome may be eclipsed by combining the data of patients with high and low potentials for an alliance. 3 The risk of masking relationships between process and outcome by pooling the data for all patients is greater for therapist than for patient variables. While individuals with a good potential for developing a therapeutic relationship are likely to maintain a solid alliance and to achieve successful results, unless the therapist is extremely untherapeutic, the influence of therapist behavior on outcome will presumably be greater for patients with an initially poor capacity to form an alliance and to use therapy productively. Since patient factors appear to account for a significantly higher proportion of variance in outcome than therapist factors, the effect of therapist behavior is likely to be obscured when all subjects are pooled 1J1.a traditional correlational approach to statistical analysis (Suh & O'Malley, 1982). In order to elucidate the influence of therapist alliance-related behaviors on outcome, research which addresses the interaction of the course of the alliance across treatment with the patient's initial potential for the formation of a relationship with the therapist is needed. In this study, two questions concerning the course of the therapeutic alliance were of primary interest. What therapist and patient contributions to the alliance are differentially present during the course of treatment in cases with initially similar patient potentials for a relationship and dissimilar outcomes? Iknv does therapist 4 action influence patient alliance-related behavior among patients with initially high and low relationship potentials? IIt was anticipated that differentiating patients with high and low relationship potentials would reveal implications of therapist alliance-related behaviors for the course of patient contributions to the alliance and for outcome which have been obscured when all patients are pooled. Ultimately, it was hOped that the research would contribute toward the identification of therapist.behaviors which facilitate the development.and maintenance of a therapeutic alliance with patients who begin treatment with a poor potential for a working relationship and thus a poor prognosis for outcome. Though there exist in the literature a number of instruments designed to assess the therapeutic alliance, most measures have been employed by only one group of investigators with a single population. Additional research is required to validate the use of the instruments with diverse populations under varied treatment conditions. One of the most promising measures of the alliance, the Therapeutic Alliance Rating Scale (TARS) developed by Marziali and her associates (Marzaili, Marmar, & Krupnick, 1981; Marziali, 1984), has been tried only in research on brief psychotherapy with relatively high-functioning patients, conducted by very experienced psychoanalytically- oriented therapists. The present study provided an 5 opportunity to assess the applicability of the TARS to research with a more heterogeneous sample of patients and therapists engaged in treatment of varying theoretical orientations and durations. Psychotherapy outcome research is plagued by the question of whether the empirical findings have any relevance for clinical practice. Among the aspects of research most vulnerable to criticisms by clinicians is the overreliance upon group means and statistical tests in measuring outcome, with little attention to thejprobability'of benefits for the individual patient or to the practical significance of change. It was hoped that by the use of clinically significant outcome criteria, this study would make a clinically relevant contribution to the psychotherapy research literature. REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE Concept of the Therapeutic Alliance History. Despite the focus in the psychoanalytic literature on transference and resistance in the therapeutic relationship, a realistic, positive attachment of the patient to the therapist has been recognized as a prerequisite to successful treatment since the inception of psychoanalysis. In his 1913 paper, "On Beginning the Treatment," Freud defined the first aim of treatment as developing a rapport, attaching the patient to treatment and to the person of the analyst. He differentiated a conscious and unobjectionable aspect of positive transference, which facilitates analysis, from the positive transferencerof repressed erotic impulses, which creates resistance to change unless it is analyzed (Freud, 1912/1958). Subsequent conceptualizations of a treatment-enhancing bond between patient and analyst were marked by a shift from emphasis on a libidinal attachment to emphasis on an alliance based on cognitive and motivational factors. Writing from the structural perspective in psychoanalysis, Sterba (1934) described a dissociation of the reality- oriented part of the patient's ego to ally with the analyst via identification, opposing the part.of the the transference, a working relationship can be established with patients with an initially poor capacity for the formation of an alliance and treatment. Therapist contributions. A certain degree of psychological health in the therapist is recognized across theoretical persuasions as a prerequisite to effective psychotherapy and, by implication, to the development of a therapeutic alliance. Though the technical contributions of the therapist toward forming an alliance vary greatly from one mode of treatment to another, a common core of therapist characteristics within the therapeutic situation seems to be required. Greenson writes of the analyst's "consistent attitude of acceptance and tolerance" (1967, p. 3) and "consistent and unwavering pursuit of insight in dealing with any and all of the patient‘s material and behavior" (1965, P. 210) "in an atmosphere of serious work, straightforwardness, compassion and restraint"(1965, p. 216). Though framed within the analytic perspective, GreensonfS'words capture the essential requirements of a consistent attitude of respect, acceptance, and concern for the patient and a consistent commitment to the given tasks 15 and goals of psychotherapy. The technique of the therapist may vary greatly, from the benign neutrality of the psychoanalytic psychotherapist tn) the self-disclosure characteristic of some humanistic therapists, but the therapeutic attitude toward the patient is consistent. Course of the alliance. Despite the existence of much literature on the therapeutic alliance, discussions of the course of the therapeutic alliance across treatment are infrequent. Since pretreatment patient and therapist characteristics are viewed as determining the capacity to form an alliance, it seems that precursors of the therapeutic alliance must be present from the first session of therapy. The patient's initial response to the therapist depends upon her/his history of object relations, level of ego development, and reactions to realistic characteristics of the therapist. Because the bond, or real relationship, zus more easily established” it appears earlier in treatment than the working alliance (Dickes, 1975; Greenson, 1967). According to Greenson (1967), the early signs of the working alliance are typically seen in the first three to six months of analysis, after a piece of transference-resistance has been effectively analyzed. Obviously, the prOponents cxf brief psychoanalytic psychotherapy (eng., Malan, 1976; Mann, 1973; Sifneos, 1972) maintain that a working alliance can be developed much more rapidly. The real relationship has been 16 described as being predominate in the early and terminal stages of treatment, while the working alliance develops toward the end of early stage of treatment, but abates periodically as the patient approaches specific areas of conflict. As the transference which dominates the middle phase of therapy is resolved and diminishes, the real relationship expands (Greenson, 1967; Ticho,.Appe1baum, Binstock, & Appelbaum, 1971). Research Related to the Therapeutic Alliance Influential findings. Two»major empirical findings influenced the course of psychotherapy research toward an emphasis on patient and therapist relationship process variables. The first finding was the disappointing results of' early' psychotherapy studies which focused on pretreatment patient and therapist variables as predictors of outcome. In a review of 166 outcome studies, Luborsky and his associates (Luborsky, Chandlery Auerbachq Cohen & Bachrach, 1971) found that research frequently revealed a number of pretreatment variables to be related to outcome: patient adequacy of personality functioning, intelligence, motivation, anxiety, educational and social assets, therapist attitude and experience, and patient and therapist similarity. However, the conclusiveness of the review was limited by methodological flaws of the studies and inconsistent results; the factors which differentiated research with positive results from research with negative 17 results were indiscernible. Major multivariate psychotherapy outcome studies have consistently indicated that, while some pretreatment variables are statistically significant predictors of outcome, the proportion of outcome variance accounted for is only in the 5 to 10% range (Fiske, Cartwright, & Kirtner, 1964; Luborsky et al., 1980; Sloan, Staples, Cristol, Yorkson, & Whipple, 1975; Strupp & Hadley, 1979). The meager results from studies of the predictive value of pretreatment patient and therapist variables contributed to a shift in focus to process variables in psychotherapy research. The second finding, which irrevocably altered the course of psychotherapy research, was the results of the Smith, Glass, and Miller (Smith & Glass, 1977; Smith, Glass, & Miller, 1980) meta-analysis of 475 controlled psychotherapy outcome studies. The authors concluded that psychotherapy is consistently beneficial to the patient in many ways, with no difference in the degree or type of benefit attributable to the type of psychotherapy. This conclusion relieved psychotherapy researchers of the burden of proving the general efficacy of psychotherapy, justifying the pursuit of explanations of why and with whom various types of psychotherapy are effective (Abeles, 1985). The Smith en: a1. results have also been interpreted by some (Shapiro & Morris, 1978) to mean that the benefits of psychotherapy are solely due to 18 nonspecific effects, or effects that are independent of technique, such as patient and therapist expectancy, therapist credibility, and suggestion. Thus the Smith, Glass, and Miller analysis stimulated increased interest in elucidating the relationships among variables in the process of psychotherapy and the influence of non- specific factors. Abeles (1985) offered the term I'unspecified" as a more accurate alternative to non- specific, and suggested that defining the components of the therapeutic alliance makes specific some of the unspecified patient and therapist factors which influence psychotherapy outcome. Client-centered_process variables. Earlier research from a client-centered framework suggested that patient process variables have more influence on psychotherapy outcome than therapist process variables. While initial studies of the predictive value of such therapist variables as warmth, accurate empathy, and genuineness were very promising, (e.gH, Truax & Mitchell, 1971), more recent research has failed to replicate these findings and the cumulative data provides inconsistent support at best for the relationship between the Rogerian facilitative conditions and outcome (see review by Parloff, Waskow, & Wolf, 1978). The results of research from the client- centered perspective (Hi the predictive utility of patient process variables have been more convergent. 13120 of 26 19 studies, most of which employed the Barrett-Lennard Relationship Inventory (Barrett-Lennard, 1962), the patient's perception of the therapist-offered relationship was positively associated with outcome (Gurman & Razin, 19770. The patient capacity for experiencing, being able to experience deeply and immediately and reflect upon and report this feeling (Gendlin, 1962; Gendlin, Beebe, Cassens, & Oberlander, 1968) has been consistently reported to be positively associated with outcome in client-centered therapy (see Luborsky et al., 1971 for review). The concept of experiencing is similar to some patient abilities defined by psychoanalytic theorists as essential to the formation of a therapeutic alliance. Measuring the therapeutic alliance. In the last five years, psychoanalytic theorists have developed a number of research instruments specifically designed to measure aspects of the therapeutic alliance (Allen, Newsom, Gabbard, & Coyne, 1984; Hartley & Strupp, 1983; Horvath & Greenberg, in press,cited in Hartley, 1985; Luborsky, Crits-Christoph, & Alexander, 1983; Marmar, Marziali, Horowitz, & Weiss, in press; Marziali, 1984; Sachs, 1983) and there has been a surge of research on the construct. Many of the instruments developed to assess the alliance have been employed by only one group of investigators with a single population. The construct of the therapeutic alliance has been operationalized in a variety of ways, 20 making it somewhat difficult to generalize from one study to another. The ideal therapeutic alliance instrument should assess separately the positive and negative contributions of both patient and therapist to the affective and cognitive-motivational components of the alliance. Predicting the strength of the alliance. Though little research has been done on factors predicting the strength of the therapeutic alliance, thus far support for the influence of the pretreatment measures of patient psychopathology on the alliance is weak. Marziali (1984) reported depressive mood and symptoms of psychological disturbance to be related to ratings of patient or therapist negative contribution to the alliance only in the first session. A significant association between psychological health and the degree of patient involvement in the therapeutic process was found in another study to be largely accounted for by the correlation of psychological health with level of interpersonal relations (Moras & Strupp, 1982). Firmer evidence has been produced in support of the theoretical assumption that a more specific aspect of patient functioning, the capacity for object relations, influences the strength of the alliance. Moras and Strupp (1982) found that pretherapy assessment of interpersonal relationships based on a clinical interview predicted up to 21 25% of the variance in the patientfs activity, initiative, and hostility during therapy. Assessing the alliance from three perspectives, patient, therapist, and clinical judge, Marziali (1984) reported that the pretreatment social adjustment of the patient correlated significantly with judge and therapist ratings of patient negative and positive contributions to the alliance, and with patient ratings of their own and the therapist negative contributions. Ryan (1973) also found that pretreatment measures of the quality of object relations predicted the quality of alliance. Assessing process indicators of patient ability to establish a relationship, Morgan and colleagues (1982) showed that the level of patient involvement in a therapeutic alliance as early as the third and fifth sessions of treatment was predictive of patient contributions late in treatment. Thus the available research suggests that while the patient's degree of psychological disturbance is of questionable influence on the therapeutic alliance, the capacity'of the patient for relatedness, present from the beginning of treatment and evident in certain predispositional and process variables, does have significant implications. Patient variables in relationship to outcome. Though there are inconsistencies in the literature, the cumulative research results indicate that patient involvement in the therapeutic alliance is predictive of treatment outcome. .A 22 number of measures relevant to the therapeutic alliance combine positive and negative indicators into a single dimension, a theoretically questionable practice which complicates the interpretation of results. The original Therapeutic Alliance Rating Scale (TARS) developed by Marziali, Marmar, and Krupnick (1981), was designed to measure affective and cognitive-motivational components of the therapeutic climate“ The judge-scored Patient Total Contribution Scale of the TARS, which incorporates both positive and negative components of the alliance, was found to differentiate patients with the most successful outcome from patients with the least successful outcome. The Patient Involvement scale from the Vanderbilt Psychotherapy Process Scale (VPPS), which includes indicators of patient active involvement and of negative affect toward therapist, has been found to predict overall improvement ratings by nonparticipant judges and therapists, and target symptom improvement ratings by therapists (Gomez-Schwartz, 1978; O'Malley et al., 1983). The scale does not assess positive patient affect toward the therapist or negative indicators of the working alliance. The Vanderbilt Therapeutic Alliance Scale (VTAS) also combines both positive and negative factors in each scale. In contrast to the VPPS and the TARS, the Patient and Patient-Therapist Interaction subscales of the VTAS (Hartley, 1978; Hartley & Strupp, 1983) failed to discriminate between high 23 outcome, low outcome, and dropout patients. While the selection by Marziali et.a1.(1981) of the most and least improved patients from a larger group may have maximized the relationship between process and outcome, thus accounting for the discrepancy with the results of Hartley and Strupp, the inconsistency between findings with the VPPS and VTAS are more difficult to explain. The 28 patients in the Hartley and Strupp study were taken from the slightly larger pool of patients used by Gomez-Schwartz (1978) and OPMalley et a1. (1983) and outcome measures were the same, though used in a composite form in the VTAS research. While O'Malley et a1. rated only the first three sessions of treatment, process variables were rated at a variety of points across treatment in the other two studies. Perhaps the inconsistent results can be accounted for by the fact that the VTAS is more inclusive than the Patient Involvement Scale of the VPPS and most therapeutic alliance measures, with the Patient Scale including such components as anxiety, defensiveness, and motivation. From research in which positive and negative aspects of the alliance were approached as separate dimensions, the convergence of data indicates that ratings of positive patient contributions to the alliance are associated with successful outcome. Luborsky and his associates (Luborsky et al., 1983; Morgan et al., 1982) reported that scores on 24 their Penn Helping Alliance measures, which incorporates positive patient indicators of affective and collaborative components of the alliance, discriminated patients with successful and unsuccessful outcome. Sarnat (1975) found the Quality of Alliance Scale (Ryan, 1973), an instrument which taps some of the collaborative aspects of the alliance but which has many methodological problems, to predict continuation in treatment. The Patient Involvement Scale of the VPPS, which contains many items measuring positive collaborative behavior, was significantly associated with outcome (Gomez-Schwartz et al., 1978; O'Malley et al., 1983). A study using the original TARS (Marziali et al., 1981) and a study employing the revised TARS (Marziali, 1984) , produced evidence of a significant association between patient positive contributions to the alliance and outcome. In contrast to the positive results with several different alliance measures, Horowitz et al. (1984) reported that patient positive contributions as measured by the California Therapeutic Alliance Scale (CTAS) bore no relationship to outcome» The CTAS and both versions of the TARS are very similar in form and content to the TARS, though not all the items are identical and wording of the items varies. The two patient positive factors derived from a principal components analysis of the VTAS, tapping agreement with the therapist on goals and tasks and collaborative responsibility, also failed to 25 predict outcome (Hartley & Strupp, 1983). Methodological differences may account for these inconsistent findings. In the research by the Luborsky group and in the 1981 Marziali study, indicators of the therapeutic alliance were compared between the most and least improved patients selected from a larger sampleiof patients, thus maximizing the probability of differences in therapy process between groups. Horowitz et a1. (1984) and Marziali in her later study (1984) attempted to predict outcome from therapeutic alliance for groups of subjects unselected for outcome. While Horowitz assessed the alliance using only nonparticipant judge's ratings, Marziali measured the alliance from the perspectives of patient, therapist and clinical judge. Marziali reported that though patient and therapist-rated alliance scales correlated significantly with a variety of outcome measures, including symptom change, the judge-rated scale correlated only with patient posttherapy evaluation, therapist posttherapy evaluation, enui clinical evaluation of dynamic outcome, measures not included in the Horowitz study. Thus judge-rated measures of positive patient contributions to the alliance appear to be predictive of outcome as measured from only some perspectives, unless the effect is maximized by preselecting patients on the basis of extremes of outcome. The data on the relationship between patient negative 26 contributions to the alliance and outcome is more equivocal than data (”1 positive contributions. The Patient Involvement Scale of the'VPPS, which includes many items tapping patient negative affect toward therapist, was reported to predict outcome (Gomez-Schwartz et al., 1978; O'Malley et al., 1983). Using the original TARS, researchers have found Patient Negative Contributions as rated by clinical judges to distinguish most improved and least improved patients, based on composite outcome measures (Marziali et al., 1981). Patient negative contributions to the alliance as measured by the CTAS have been demonstrated by Horowitz and colleagues (1984) to be negatively associated with symptom reduction. In contrast, the Marziali 1984 study produced no relationship between negative TARS signs of patient alliance and symptom change, though Negative Patient Contributions correlated with evaluations of outcome by both therapy participants and with clinical evaluation of dynamic change. It is difficult to account for the incongruence between the Horowitz (1984) and Marziali (1984) findings regarding the association between the judge-rated Patient Negative Contribution and outcome, given the similarity of the two scales. The Patient Resistance factor derived from the principal components analysis of the VTAS (Hartley, 1978) and negative ratings on the Penn Helping Alliance counting signs measure (Luborsky et a1” 1983) have not been found 27 to relate significantly to outcome. Therapist variables in relationship to outcome. Theoretical assumptions about the influence on psychotherapy outcome of therapist contributions to the alliance have meager support at best. Research with the Penn Helping Alliance Rating method (Morgan et al., 1982), VTAS (Hartley & Strupp, 1983) and Vanderbilt Negative Indicator Scale (VNIS, Sachs, 1983) has demonstrated no association between therapist alliance-related behavior and outcome. The therapist-offered relationship as measured by the VPPS has been positively associated only with the overall rating of patient improvement by the therapist (O'Malley et al., 1983) or the therapist rating of improvement on target complaints (Gomez-Schwartz et al., 1978). Results from research on therapist variables with the TARS and the CTAS are inconsistent, though the inconsistency seems to be largely due to the perspective of the raters of the alliance: patient, therapist, or judge. Therapist positive and negative contributions to the alliance as rated by nonparticipant judges were found to bear no relationship to outcome by Marziali et al.(1981) and Horowitz et a1. (1984). Similarly, from her 1984 study, Marziali reported no association between mean judge- rated therapist behavior across treatment and outcome, with the exception of a significant correlation between Therapist Positive Contribution and patient evaluation of 28 outcome. She did find significant relationships between therapist and patient-rated therapist behavior and symptom improvement, patient and therapist evaluation of outcome, and dynamic change. The significant findings were primarily with regard to Therapist Positive Contributions. The failure of clinical judge ratings of therapist contributions to the therapeutic alliance to predict outcome, while consistent with convergent evidence throughout psychotherapy research that therapist variables account for little of the variance in outcome, seriously challenges theoretical assumptions. Horowitz et a1. (1984) postulated that the use of highly experienced therapists may preclude significant effects of therapist behavior because the range of scores on therapist rating scales is too narrow. Research employing a more heterogeneous group of therapists might reveal a significant effect of therapist alliance-related behavior on outcome. Course of the alliance. The empirical data on the development of the therapeutic alliance during the course of treatment is conflicting. Marziali (1984) reported a significant sessions effect for patient positive and therapist positive contributions to the alliance, with average scores for the first and third sessions of treatment significantly lower than for the last session. No similar trends were noted fortfluenegative scales. In contrast to Marziali, Hartley and Strupp (1983) found that 29 the mean alliance rating on the Patient Subscale of the VTAS decreased significantly from the first to the last session. Research by the Luborsky group demonstrated no significant change in the helping alliance from the beginning to the end of treatment, and scores for individual patients were moderately correlated from early to late treatment.(Luborsky et a1” 1983; Morgan et a1” 1982). Gomez-Schwartz and her associates (1978) found no significant differences in VPPS Patient Involvement scores attributable to time sequence in treatment. Very interesting findings were produced when Hartley and Strupp (1983) looked at therapeutic alliance ratings on the VTAS at five points in time across treatment, Averaged across outcome groups, the Patient Subscale, Interaction Subscale and Total Alliance Subscale peaked at the 25% point in treatment. The effect approached significance (p < .07) for the therapist subscale. Though there was no main effect for outcome, the authors compared high and low outcome groups at the 25% point in treatment, discovering that the high outcome group was significantly higher on the therapist, patient, and total alliance subscales. An outcome by sessions analysis of variance for the principal components of the VTAS also produced a main sessions effect for Patient Resistance, Motivation, Responsibility, and Anxiety. Though the authors did not conduct least significant difference tests between sessions across 30 outcome groups, examinationiof the means suggests a peak scores on those components at the 25% point in treatment, with a downward trend through the remainder of treatment. Early indicators of alliance apg_pppppmg. The literature indicates that the relationship between patient and therapist contributions to the therapeutic alliance and outcome may vary considerably with the phase in treatment at which the alliance is assessed. O'Malley, Suh, and Strupp (1983) reported that the Patient Involvement Scale of the VPPS showed little relationship to outcome in the first session, but by the third session accounted for 19 to 28% of variance in all the outcome measures. Ratings on the Patient Qualities and Patient-Therapist Interaction subscales of the VNIS were significantly associated with a composite global measure of outcome for the third, though not the first and second, sessions of treatment (Sachs, 1983). Such findings suggest that though assessment of patient alliance variables in the initial sessions of treatment via the patient subscales may not be useful in predicting the patientHs eventual improvement, failure to develop these elements in the therapeutic relationship by the third session may have negative implications for outcome» Contradicting this hypothesis, Marziali (1984) reported a number of significant associations between patient and therapist positive alliance ratings in the initial session and outcome. The number of significant 31 correlations did increase from session one to session three. An analysis of the Marziali data for an outcome by sessions effect would have been very interesting. Phase of treatment and outcome: Patient contributions. Luborsky et a1. (1983) reported a stage of treatment by outcome interaction for a score reflecting patient positive indicators of the alliance minus patient negative indicators. Positive helping alliance scores of most improved patients increased over treatment and negative scores did not, while negative helping alliance scores of least improved patients increased and there was little change in positive scores. The increase reported in positive helping alliance signs among the most improved patients is consistent with the Marziali (1984) results across outcome groups. Luborsky '5 subjects were the extremes on the continuum of outcome for a large group of patients, while Marziali used a correlational approach in which subjects were not preselected on outcome. Since most patients benefit from psychotherapy, it is possible that all of Marziali‘s subjects, unlike the least improved patients in the Luborsky study, had relatively successful outcomes. A study by Crowder (1972) in which the Leary Circumplex of Interpersonal Behavior was used has relevance for the interaction of the course of patient contribution to the therapeutic alliance across treatment 32 with outcome. Crowder assessed the occurrence of four categories.of behavior in therapist.and.patient in early, middle, and late therapy. Hostile-competitive and passive- resistant behavior could be considered negative indicators for the alliance in both patient and therapist. Support- seeking behavior by the patient and supportive-interpretive behavior by the therapist could be considered positive indicators for the alliance. Though the author did not discuss mean scores on these behaviors across treatment as they related to outcome, he did report significant differences between outcome groups at different points in treatment. Successful patients were more hostile- competitive and less passive-resistant and supportive- interpretive than unsuccessful patients in early therapy. By the middle of therapy, unsuccessful patients were only more passive-resistant. The outcome groups showed no differences by late in treatment. (To obtain his early therapy ratings, Crowder (1972) averaged scores for the first three sessions of treatment. His results in combination with the findings of Gomez- Schwartz (1978), Marziali (1984) and Sachs (1982) provide a fairly strong argument that by the third session of treatment, patient alliance-related behaviors have significant implications for outcome. However, findings of Crowder that successful patients are more hostile competitive than unsuccessful patients early in treatment 33 is in conflict with the results of theiother researchers. Results using the Leary Circumplex must be interpreted with caution since the measure was not specifically designed to assess therapeutic alliance and the behavioral categories are likely to be overinclusive. Phase of treatment and outcome: Therapist contributions. Assessing the therapeutic alliance in sessions one and three of treatment, Marziali (1984) reported some significant relationships of therapist behavior to outcome not found when data was averaged across all sessions. Therapist alliance-building behavior in sessions one and three as rated by patients, therapists and judges was significantly related to outcome» An unexpected finding was that clinical judges' ratings of Therapist Negative Contributions in early sessions were significantly positively associated with symptomatic and dynamic improvement. The Marziali results suggest that significant relationships between the therapist's alliance-facilitating or inhibiting behavior at various points in treatment and outcome may be obscured when alliance ratings are averaged across treatment. Some earlier psychotherapy process research employing the Leary Interpersonal Circumplex (Leary, 1957) lends support to the hypothesis that the relationship of therapist alliance-related behaviors to outcome is best studied by examining the interaction of behavior at various 34 points in treatment with outcome. Employing the Leary Circumplex, Dietzel and Abeles (1975) studied complementary interactions between patient and therapist in early, middle and late phases of psychotherapy. Complementary interactions are high probability sequences of behavior which, "are reinforcing to both participants, contribute to the maintenance of existing behavior patterns, reduce anxiety, and promote increased relatedness" (p. 264). Dietzel and Abeles (1975) found no relationship between mean therapist complementarity across treatment and outcome. However, in the middle phase of therapy, successful therapists responded to their patients with a significantly lower level of complementarity than unsuccessful therapists. These results seem to be in keeping with the course of the therapeutic alliance as theorized in the psychoanalytic literature, since therapist complementarity may be critical to establish the bond.of the real relationship which predominates in early phases of treatment, but some aspects of complementary behavior on the part of the therapist would interfere with the development of the working alliance, or cognitive- motivational, aspect of the therapeutic alliance which develops later. The trends discussed by Hartley and Strupp (1983) in their research with the VTAS are congruent with the results of Dietzel and Abeles. They reported Positive Climate, primarily ea therapist positive contribution 35 factor, to be significantly lower for high outcome dyads than for low outcome dyads in the median session of treatment. The Hartley and Strupp results must be interpreted cautiously, since comparisons between means for outcome groups were not statistically justified due to the absence of an outcome by sessions interaction. Crowder (1972) found no differences between successful and unsuccessful therapists in the middle phase of treatment. Early in treatment, successful therapists engaged in what would appear to be both alliance- facilitating and alliance-inhibiting behaviors, being less passive-resistant but more hostile-competitive than unsuccessful therapists. Differences in therapist behavior in the final phase of treatment were more in keeping with the clinical literature. Therapists of successful dyads were significantly more supportive-interpretive and less hostile-competitive and passive-resistant than unsuccessful therapists. . Though results indicating that successful therapists were more hostile-competitive in the early phase of treatment than their unsuccessful counterparts were unexpected, they are consistent with Marziali's (1984) findings that judge's ratings of the therapist's negative contributions to the alliance in early sessions were positively correlated with symptom improvement and dynamic change. Contradicting theoretical assumptions, the 36 empirical data suggests that perhaps some negative behavior in response to the patient early in therapy is necessary to challenge the patient's complacency with her/his characteristic patterns of interaction and to facilitate change. The level of functioning of the patient seems to be an important consideration here. Marziali's (1984) patients were neurotic outpatients with whom a circumscribed focus could be maintained and Crowder%3 (1972) patients were college students presenting at a counseling center, both groups likely to be high- functioning. Negative therapist behavior early in treatment could be counter-productive with less healthy patients. Interaction of patient predisposition with outcome. There is preliminary evidence for an interactive effect of patient predispositional variables and the therapeutic alliance on outcome. The research of Horowitz and his colleagues (1984) suggested that indicators of the alliance have different meaning for patients depending upon level of motivation. Among patients with low motivation, high patient positive contribution ratings were associated with better outcome, while high patient negative contribution ratings were associated with poorer outcomes. Among patients with high motivation, more positive contributions to establishing a therapeutic alliance were associated with poorer outcomes, (while high negative contribution ratings 37 were associated with better outcome. The authors (Horowitz et.al”.1984) postulated that although patients with low motivation may become too overwhelmed by negative feelings toward the therapist to work through the reactions, the negativity of highly motivated patients toward the therapist may represent constructive therapeutic work because feelings toward the therapist are actively being addressed. The development of a therapeutic alliance may be sufficient to sustain the involvement of an initially poorly motivated patient in the therapeutic process. Horowitz et a1. (1984) suggested that evidence of a positive alliance on the part of a highly motivated patient may represent a defense against negative feelings toward the therapist. The interactional model employed by Horowitz et al. revealed no influence of therapist variables on outcome. Using a traditional correlational approach with VPPS data from the first three sessions of therapyy O'Malley, Suh, and Strupp (1983) had found little relationship between mean or session by session therapist behavior and outcome. In an innovative approach to the psychotherapy process research, Suh and O'Malley (1982) classified the patients into high and IIWV prognosis groups based on process variables, then cross classified patients according to actual high and low outcome to create four groups. Rather than attempt to directly predict a relationship 38 between the prognostic variable and outcome, the authors employed a failed predictions model, hypothesizing that cases in which the patients' outcomes were congruent with their prognoses could be differentiated from those for whom predictions failed by therapist behavior. When patterns of change in therapist behavior across the first three sessions, rather than the ratings of therapists for each session, were evaluated for each of the four groups, results emerged which suggest that therapist alliance- related behaviors do have implications for outcome. For patients with good prognoses who achieved the predicted successful outcome, therapists tended to have an initially positive reaction, with an increase across time in warmth and exploration. In contrast, for patients with a high prognosis who failed to achieve the predicted successful outcome, therapists had an initially negative attitude which increased across time, while therapist warmth and exploration decreased. Therapists for low-prognosis patients who, as predicted, luui poor outcome, characteristically responded with eu1 initially highly negative attitude and a decrease in warmth across treatment. For patients who achieved a successful outcome despite a poor prognosis, therapists exhibited an increase in warmth and exploration over the first three sessions. Suh and.O'Malley also found that the association between Patient Participation.andcoutcome, which was significant 39 for session three of therapy for a variety of outcome measures, was strengthened when change scores from session one through three were used. Suh and CYMalley (1982) contend that traditional correlational analyses of psychotherapy process data are likely'to obscure the influence of therapist variables on outcome. "Good" psychotherapy candidates are likely to obtain a successful treatment outcome under most circumstances and are unlikely to elicit negative reactions from therapists, so that therapist contributions to the alliance are likely to have limited impact on outcome variability with high prognosis patients. Poor psychotherapy candidates, on the other hand, are much more likely to be lacking the capacities for achieving high outcome with minimal assistance and to elicit a negative therapist response. Thus therapist behavior is postulated to have significantly more impact on outcome among low prognosis patients. Because patient variables apparently account for a much larger proportion of variance in outcome than therapist variables, the influence CHE therapist variables on outcome is likely to be obfuscated in traditional correlational analyses in which high and low prognosis patients are pooled. Taking a similar approach to the failed predictions model of Suh and OUMalley (1982), Foreman and Marmar (1985) studied the course of the patient's negative contributions 40 to the alliance using the CTAS. Though all six patients in the study scored high on patient negative contributions in session 2, half achieved significant improvement in psychotherapy and half failed to improve. The authors reported that the negative contributions of the improved patients decreased substantially through the course of treatment, while the negative contributions of unimproved patients remained high throughout therapy. Thus, among a group of patients whose initial contributions to the alliance would suggest a poor prognosis for outcome, improvement in the alliance was associated with better outcome. The authors also noted a difference in therapist technique between the two outcome groups. Therapists who succeeded in promoting an improved alliance and good outcome made interpretations specifically relatedtxbthe alliance, while unsuccessful therapists avoided addressing the poor alliance. Conclusions from the therapeutic alliance research. The frequent contradictions in the therapeutic alliance research literature, partially a consequence of differing measures and methodologies, also reflect the complexity of the relationship of the alliance to process and outcome in psychotherapy. While the convergence of data indicates that the patientis contributions to the alliance influence outcome, there is evidence that the implications of the alliance-related behavior for outcome vary with certain 41 patient predispositional variables and with the timing of their occurrence in the course of therapy. The empirical data on therapist contributions to the alliance presents an even more perplexing picture.‘Fheoretical assumptions about the importance of therapist contributions to the alliance in determining outcome have not been well-supported empirically. However, some characteristics of the therapeutic alliance research may be operating to obscure therapist influence. The use of highly experienced therapists who differ little in their behavior, thus providing little variance in alliance ratings, may preclude finding significant associations between therapist alliance-related behaviors and outcome. The effect of therapist variables is also likely to be masked by the traditional approach of pooling data from all patients for statistical analyses. Unless the therapist is destructive, therapist contributions may have little effect on the development of the therapeutic alliance or on outcome with psychotherapy candidates who begin treatment withaigood capacity to develop a relationship and to make use of therapy. Therapist influence is likely to be much greater on patients who begin treatment with poor prognosis due to limited ability to establish an alliance. The tendency of patient factors to account for a significantly higher proportion of the variance in psychotherapy outcome than therapist factors would cause therapist influence to be 42 obscured when a conventional correlational approach to statistical analysis is used. Thus studying the therapeutic alliance as it relates to patient predispositional variables may be even more critical to understanding the influence of therapist contributions than to understanding the influence of patient contributions. The complexity of the therapeutic alliance as revealed by empirical results thus far dictates a need for a complex approach to future research which considers the interaction of patient predispositional variables with the course of patient and therapist contributions to the alliance across treatment as they relate to outcome. Clinical Significance of Outcome Criteria The evaluation ofgpsychotherapeutic outcome. The need for multidimensional sources and types of outcome criteria has been a focal issue in the literature on the evaluation of psychotherapy outcome (e4L, Bergin & Lambert, 1978; Luborsky et alq.1971). Strupp & Hadley (1977) presented an excellent discussion of the issue and proposed a tripartite model of outcome criteria which has become a prototype in the field of psychotherapy research. Under the tripartite model, outcome is assessed from the perspectives of society, the individual, and the mental health professional, implying measures of observable behavior, the individual client's sense of well-being, and 43 patient functioning as compared to theoretical standards of psychological health. Relative to the emphasis on the source and content of outcome criteria, the issue of outcome measurement methodology has been neglected by most authors. Mintz, Luborsky, and Cristoph (1979) discussed the advantages and disadvantages of a number of measurement methodologies employed by psychotherapy researchers. The most frequently used outcome measure in research on traditional psychotherapy, probably because of its simplicity, is a global rating of success or improvement on a single scale (Luborsky et a1” 1971). Such global measures, however, are particularly susceptible to bias and ambiguity as to what is being rated, which makes generalization from patient to patient or study to study difficuitn The gain score from pretreatment to posttreatment, attractive in its face validity, often presents a some statistical problems: statistical unreliability and correlation with initial level of symptomatology due to ceiling effects and regression to the mean when outcomes of extreme groups are compared. As test-retest reliability decreases, these problems are exacerbated. Final adjustment status alone has also been employed as the criteria of whether outcome is adequate. A drawback to this criteria is that patients who began treatment at a high level of functioning and achieved no statistically reliable change are equated with 44 patients vflu: make large, positive gains in functioning in order to obtain the final adjustment status (Mintz, Luborsky, & Christoph, 1979). One measurement methodology, the residual gain score, offers the advantage of statistically compensating for the correlation of amount of change with initial level of functioning. The individual's simple gain score is rescaled relative to the mean change made by others who began treatment at the same level of functioning. The residual gain score thus reflects the individuaidsichange relative to the amount of change that would be predicted based on initial level of functioning. Atdisadvantage to the residual gain score is the complexity of interpretation of statistical analyses, because the adjusted scores differ so greatly from the raw data (Mintz, Luborsky, & Cristoph, 1979). The difficulty of finding an adequate measurement methodology for psychotherapy outcome is compounded by the question of whether the measured benefits of psychotherapy to a patient are clinically meaningful. Statistically significant differences in outcome between groups are often of little practical importance. Traditional statistical comparisons between outcome for two or more groups of patients are based on mean scores and provide no data as to the proportion of patients in each group who improve, making it difficult to use research results to estimate the 45 likelihood that a specific individual will gain from psychotherapy (Jacobson, Follette, & Revenstorf, 1984). There is growing recognition in the field that conventional statistical tests of significance must be supplemented by tests of clinical significance and by reports of the proportion of improved patients if psychotherapy research is to have practical implications for clinical work (eugq Hugdahl & 0st, 1981; Kazdin & Wilson, 1978). Q;ipg;ia_for clinical significance. Jacobson, Follette, and Revenstorf (1984), suggesting that standardized criteria for clinical significance be adopted, proposed a two-fold criterion which could be applied across a variety of clinical problems: the patient's posttest level of functioning and the statistical reliability of change. They defined a clinically significant change in therapy as "when the patient moves from the dysfunctional to the functional range during the course of therapy on whatever variable is being used to measure the clinical problem" (p. 340). The authors specified three possible ways to operationalize the question of adequate posttest level of functioning. The most stringent criterion would require that measures of posttest functioning fall more than two standard deviations, in the functional direction, from the mean for the dysfunctional population. Less stringent criterion would require that posttest functioning fall within two standard deviations of the mean of the 46 functional population. Jacobson et a1. recommended a third criterion when there is significant overlap between the functional and dysfunctional pOpulation. The third criterion would determine whether the posttest score would statistically be more likely to place the patient in the functional or the dysfunctional population. Using the Jacobson et al. approach, the choice of criterion for clinical improvement will depend in part upon the availability of norms for functional and dysfunctional population and upon the degree of overlap between the two pOpulation distributions. The authors acknowledged that return to normal functioning may be too demanding an outcome criterion for some populations. In order for change in psychotherapy to be clinically significant, it must be of large enough magnitude to rule out the possibility that the improvement from pretest to posttest was due to chance. Jacobson and his colleagues (1984) recognized a variety of possible criteria for statistical reliability of change, but recommended the use of a reliable change index (RC) calculated by dividing the pre-post difference score for each patient by standard error of measurement. The standard error of measurement is equivalent to the spread of scores that repeated testing would produce given that no actual change had occurred. The probability of obtaining an RC exceedingjtlu96 if no actual change has occurred is less than 5%. The authors 47 acknowledge a disadvantage in RC being dependent upon the reliability of the change measure, since a small magnitude of change can produce a large RC if the instrument is highly reliable. However, the use of the additional criteria of clinically adequate functioning provides a check against this problem. Though there is no consensus yet on criteria for clinical significance, Jacobson et a1. (1984) provide conventions based on sound clinical and psychometric rationale which can be applied to a variety of clinical problems. Research that, in addition to statistical differences between group means, reports the proportion of individuals in a group who achieve an acceptable level of functioning in therapy may reveal treatment effects which are obscured by high variability. Unlike average improvement scores, description of the pmoportion of improved patients in a group permits estimates of the probability that a given patient in a clinical setting will benefit from treatment, Adopting clinically significant criteria for outcome seems to be a step toward bridging the gap between psychotherapy research and clinical application. The movement toward standardized criteria for clinical significance (will facilitate comparisons of efficacy of psychotherapy from one area to another and inhibit the tendency to allow standards for successful outcome to be eroded by adjustment to the limits of 48 therapeutic technology (Jacobson et al., 1984). OBJECTIVES AND HYPOTHESES Statement of Problem and Objectives Though a positive, collaborative bond between patient and therapist is widely recognized by psychodynamic theorists and clinicians as a prerequisite to successful psychotherapy, empirical support for the relationship between the therapeutic alliance and outcome has not been consistent. The dissonance between theory and research results may stem in part from approaches to research which sacrifice the complexity of the therapeutic alliance. There are indications in the literature that comparing alliance scores averaged across treatment obscures variations in the course of the alliance during therapy which influence outcome. Despite preliminary evidence that alliance-related behavior may have different implications for outcome depending upon patient predispositional variables, data analyses are conventionally based on the entire sample of patients, regardless of patient predispositional variables. The initial capacity of the patient for establishing a relationship seems particularly likely to influence the significance of patient and therapist alliance-related behavior for outcome. Since patient factors appear to account for a significantly 49 50 higher proportion of variance in outcome than therapist factors, the effect of therapist factors is especially likely to be obscured when all subjects are pooled in a traditional correlational approach to statistical analysis. The first objective of this research was to address the complexity of the therapeutic alliance by studying the interaction of initial patient prognosis for establishing a therapeutic relationship, the course of the therapeutic alliance across treatment, and outcome. Two questions were of central interest. How do therapist and patient contributions to the alliance during the course of treatment differ for cases with originally similar patient potentials for establishing a relationship but dissimilar outcomes? How does therapist action influence patient alliance-related behavior among patients with initially high and low relationship potentials? IIt was anticipated that differentiating patients with high and low relationship potentials would reveal implications of therapist alliance-related behaviors for the course of patient contributions to the alliance and for outcome which have been eclipsed when all patients are pooled. While a number of research instruments have been designed to gauge the strength of the therapeutic alliance, most measures have been applied by only one group of investigators with a single population. The second purpose of this study was to assess the validity of one of the more 51 promising therapeutic alliance measures, the TARS (Marziali, 1984), for use with a heterogeneous sample of patients and therapists engaged in a wider range of treatment than in previous studies. The TARS has been employed only in research on brief psychotherapy with high- functioning patients, conducted by very experienced psychoanalytically-oriented psychotherapists. Clients in this research varied considerably in their degree of psychopathology, iwith many not sufficiently high- functioning to be apprOpriate candidates for time-limited psychotherapy. While psychodynamic psychotherapy was the most common treatment approach employed by therapists in this study, a variety of theoretical perspectives were represented. Therapists were comparable to a typical community mental health center staff in terms of experience, ranging from being first year practicum students in clinical psychology to having several years of post Masters degree clinical experience. It was hoped that research employing therapists with a wide range of skills would prove particularly frutiful, since the failure of past research to reveal a significant influence of therapist alliance-related behavior on outcome may in part be an artifact of the limited range of scores on the therapist scales of alliance measures. The questionable clinical relevance of conventional statistical approaches ‘Uo outcome ineasurement ih 52 psychotherapy research has deservedly been a target of criticism by practicioners. The third purpose of the research was to examine the relationship between the therapeutic alliance and psychotherapy outcome when outcome, rather than being determined solely by comparisons between group means, was defined in clinically significant terms and the prOportion of patients in each group who benefit significantly was considered. The use of clinically significant outcome criteria is seen as a step toward increasing the clinical relevance of empirical work on the therapeutic alliance. To accomplish the specified objectives, audiotapes of psychotherapy sessions were rated for the presence of positive and negative patient and therapist contributions to the therapeutic alliance, using the TARS. Patients were classified as having a high or low potential for establishing an alliance (Prognosis) based on TARS ratings of patient contributions to the.alliance during the first session of treatment. For each patient, a session from the early, middle and late phase of treatment was also rated on the TARS for indications of patient and therapist positive and negative alliance-related behavior. Patients were classified as achieving clinically significant improvement (High Outcome), statistically reliable but not clinically significant improvement (Medium Outcome) or no improvement (Low Outcome) based on their scores on the Global Pathology 53 Index of the SCL-90-R. Hypotheses HI: Patient positive and negative contributions to the therapeutic alliance in the first session of treatment will be predictive of the patientfs ability to form and maintain an alliance throughout treatment. Specific prediction: High prognosis patients will have higher Patient Positive and lower Patient Negative Contribution scale scores averaged across early, middle and late treatment sessions than low prognosis patients. 52: Patients with an initially poor potential for developing an alliance will have greater variability in outcome than patients with a good potential for an alliance. Specific predictions: The variance of outcome classification scores will be greater for low prognosis than for high prognosis patients. H3: Among patients who achieve significant change, positive patient contributions will be greater in late than in early sessions of therapy. Specific prediction: There will be a significant phase of treatment effect for the Patient Positive Contribution scale among high and medium outcome patients, with higher ratings on the scale for late than for early sessions. 54 H4: There will be a significant difference between patients who achieve clinically significant change and patients who achieve no reliable change in the course of patient positive and negative contributions to the alliance. Specific prediction: There will be a significant main effect of outcome, or a significant Phase x Outcome interaction, for the Patient Positive and Patient Negative Contribution scale scores. HS: Within patients with a poor capacity for establishing a therapeutic alliance, therapist positive contributions to the alliance will be positively related to successful outcome; therapist negative contributions will be negatively related to successful outcome. Specific prediction: There will be a significant outcome effect for the Therapist Positive and Therapist Negative Contribution scales within ltnv prognosis patients. H6: Therapist alliance-related behavior will be more strongly associated anfli patient alliance-related behavior for ltnv prognosis patients than for high prognosis patients. 55 Specific prediction: There will be a larger correlation between therapist and patient subscales at each phase of treatment for low prognosis patients than for high prognosis patients. METHOD Participants Clients. The patients in the research were primarily working and middle class adults seen in psychotherapy at the Michigan State University Psychological Clinic who agreed to participate in the Clinic's psychotherapy research program. The study included the 32 treatment cases at least 10 sessions in duration for whom complete data was available. The number of sessions for each treatment case range from 14 to 71, with a median of 29 sessions. There were 8 male and 24 female patient- participants ranging in age from 20 to 57, with a median age of 29. Therapists. Therapists for the Psychological Clinic's psychotherapy research project are graduate students in clinical psychology, recruited from.the Clinic practicum students and interns. Informed consent for the participation of the therapists is obtained at the beginning of each academic year. Therapists for the study range in experience from students in first year practicum to advanced students with several years of post-Masters degree experience. The range of experience of therapists is comparableeto the range of 56 57 experience typically found in a community mental health setting. Though the predominate theoretical orientation of the therapists is psychodynamic, including psychoanalytic and interpersonal perspectives, other orientations to treatment are represented. Procedure Clients seeking treatment at the Psychological Clinic are routinely informed of the Clinic's psychotherapy research project during their intake interview, and asked if they would be willing to participate. Informed consent of the patient-participants is obtained during the intake interview. After intake but prior to their first meeting with their therapist, patients agreeing to participate in the research project completed the SCL-90. The first session, third session, every fifth session subsequent to the third, and the last session of therapy were audiotaped. After termination, the SOL-90 was again completed. Before therapy began, during the course of treatment, and at termination, patients completed a number'of = .71 c = 50 + 51 .31 + .58 Clients with posttest GPI scores less than .71 are 61 statistically more likely to be in the functional than in the dysfunctional population. Scores greater than .71 are likely to be drawn from the dysfunctional distribution. The statistical reliability of change was determined by a reliable change index (RC) proposed by Jacobson et al. (1984). RC is equivalent to the difference score divided by the standard error of measurement: RC = (x2 - X1)/SE where x2 = the patient's posttest GPI score, x1 = that patient's pretest GPI score, and SE = the standard error of measurement. SE is the standard deviation of scores for repeated tests which would be expected given that no actual change had occurred. Based on the data from Table 1, 11/2 = .58 [1 - .8411/2 = .232 If RC is greater than t 1.96, the probability that real change has not occurred is less than 5%. Applying the above criteria for clinically significant and statistically reliable outcome, patients for the proposed study were classified into three outcome groups. High outcome patients had achieved a statistically reliable change (RC > 1.96) and a posttreatment level of adjustment statistically more likely to place them in the functional than in the dysfunctional population (GPI (.71). Medium outcome patients had achieved a statistically reliable 62 change, but at posttest were still functioningan:a.level which made them statistically more likely to be in the dysfunctional population (GPI > .71). Low outcome patients had.failedtx>achieve statistically reliable improvement during therapy. There were 8 high outcome patients, 11 medium outcome patients, and 13 low outcome patients. With the exception of one patient in the low outcome group with statistically reliable deterioration, all patients had pretreatment Gross Pathology Index scores statistically more likely to be drawn from the dysfunctional population. For the correlational analyses, the three outcome classifications were assigned ordinal values corresponding to their degree of improvement. Low outcome was assigned the value 1, medium outcome the value 2, and high outcome the value 3. Therapeutic alliance. Clinical observer ratings of psychotherapy audiotapes on the TARS were used to quantify patient and therapist behavior congruent with descriptions in the psychodynamic literature of positive and negative contributions to the therapeutic alliance. Patient positive contributions, patient negative contributions, therapist positive contributions, and therapist negative contributions were considered as separate dimensions of the therapeutic alliance. 63 Instruments SCL-90-R. The SCL-90-R is a self-report inventory designed to reflect the current psychological symptom status of psychiatric and medical patients. The 90 items of the inventory are rated on a 5-point scale from "not at all" to "extremely," indicating the degree to which they have distressed the respondent. For the proposed study, participants were instructed to rate the problems and complaints with regard to the distress they had experienced in the past couple of weeks, including the day of administration. The items of the SCL-90-R contribute to nine primary symptom dimensions: somatization, obsessive- compulsive, interpersonal sensitivity, depression, anxiety, hostility, phobic anxiety, paranoid ideation, and psychoticism. Seven items of the inventory are not included in the symptom dimensions but do contribute to the three global indices of distress. The Global Severity Index (GSI), the best single measure of current level of psychological disturbance from the SCL-90-R, combines data on the number of symptoms endorsed and the intensity of distress experienced. The individual's style of response is reflected in the Positive Symptom Distress Index (PSDI), a measure of perceived intensity of distress corrected for the number of symptoms. The total number of symptoms which a respondent acknowledges experiencing is reflected in the Positive Symptom Total (PSI). 64 SCL-90-R Reliability;.Adequate internal consistency and test-retest reliability has been reported for the nine primary symptom dimensions of the SCL-90-R. With a population of symptomatic volunteers, Derogatis, Rickels, and Rock (1976) found that coefficient alpha ranged from .77 for the Psychoticism Scale to high of .90 for Depression. Measures of test-retest reliability for a heterogeneous group of psychiatric outpatients over a one week period ranged from .78 to .90, an apprOpriate level of reliability for syndromes of psychoPathological symptoms, which conceptually lie between the constancy of personality traits and the instability of mood (Derogatis, 1977L Some evidence is available for the reliability, or generalizability, of the primary symptom dimensions across demographic variables. ‘Tests of factorial invariance of the SCL-90-R have shown high levels of agreement across sex in the structural definitions of eight of the nine symptoms dimensions. A.moderate levelcflfagreement between males and females was found on the composition of the dimension of Paranoid Ideation (Derogatis & Cleary, 1977). Factorial invariance has been demonstrated across social class and psychiatric diagnosis for Depression, Somatization, Hostility, Phobic Anxiety; and Obsessive-compulsive, the dimensions which were carried over from the forerunner of the SCL-90-R (Derogatis, Lipmen, Covi, & Rickels, 1971, 1972). 65 SCL-90-R Validity. The validity of an instrument rests on whether the instrument succeeds in measuring what it intends to measure. One type of validity, criterion- related validity, is determined by the degree of correspondence between an instrument and some conceptually important criterion external to the instrument itself, whether the criterion is applied prior to, concurrently with, or after the administration of the instrument. A study with 119 symptomatic volunteers demonstrated a high degree of concurrent validity for the SCL-90 (Derogatis, Rickels & Rock, 1976). In a correlational analysis of the relationship between the SCL-90 and the clinical, content, and cluster scales of the MMPI, the authors found that each dimension of the SCL-90 was most highly correlated with an MMPI scale reflecting a similar construct, except Obsessive-compulsive, for which there was no like MMPI scale. An investigation of the concurrent validity of the SCL-90 with the Middlesex Hospital Questionnaire produced correlations ranging from .36 to .74 between symptom dimensions tapping similar constructs, with a correlation of .92 between the global symptom scores of the two instruments (Boleloucky & Horvath, 1974). A number of investigations have demonstrated the sensitivity of symptom patterns on the SCL-90 in discriminating various clinical groups. Studying a population of participants in a methadone maintenance 66 program, Weissman, Slobetz, Prusoff, Mezritz, andlhmvard (1976) found the symptom profile of the SCL-90 to discriminate clinically depressed from nondepressed patients. Patterns of response on the "90" were reported to discriminate between drug and placebo groups in research on the relationship between hostility and marijuana (Salzman, Van der Kolk, & Shader, 1976). Abelhoff and Derogatis (1977) have shown breast cancer patients to have a unique response pattern on the "90" which distinguishes them from women with other types of cancer. In another investigation with cancer patients (Craig & Abelhoff, 1974), the SOL-90 was found to be a useful screening instrument for psychological distress among oncology patients. One quarter of the oncology patients in the sample produced SCL-90 profiles identical to the profiles of psychiatric emergency patients. The criterion-related studies cited above contribute support for the construct validity of the SCL-90-R, indicating ea substantial correlation between the measurement as it is operationalized and the construct which it is hypothesized to measure. Another aspect to the assessment of construct validity is the investigation of the extent to which the theoretical internal structure of an instrument can be validated by empirically-based analyses (Derogatis, 1977L. Factor analysiscnfthe SCL- 90-R data of 1,002 psychiatric outpatients, using both 67 procrustes and varimax procedures, revealedau1excellent correspondence between theoretical and empirical structure of the symptom dimensions of the SCL-90-R (Derogatis & Cleary, 1977). Therapeutic Alliance Rating Scale. The TARS is a 42- item instrument.designed.to assess positive and negative contributions of patient and therapist to the affective and attitudinal (cognitive-motivational) aspects of the therapeutic relationship. Though based in part on items drawn from the Penn Helping Alliance methods (Luborsky, 1976; Luborsky et alu,l983) the‘Vanderbilt.Therapeutic Alliance Scale (Hartley, 1978), and the Vanderbilt Psychotherapy Process Scale (Gomez-Schwartz, 1978), the TARS was intended.to exclude items pertaining to action, technique, or specific response. The TARS to be used in the proposed research (Marziali, 1984) is very similar in format and content to the original Therapeutic Alliance Scale developed.bylnarziali et al.(1981) and researched further by Marmar and associates (Foreman & Marmar, 1985; Horowitz et a1. 1984), though the instrument has been partially reorganized and some items reformulated. There are three parallel forms of the instrument, designed to be used by therapists, patients, and trained clinical observers of segments of psychotherapy sessions. Only the clinical judge version of the scale will be employed in this study. 68 The TARS has four subscales: the Patient Positive Contribution Scale and the Therapist Positive Contribution Scale, each with 11 items, and the Patient Negative Contribution Scale and the Therapist Negative Contribution Scale each with 10 items. Each item is rated on a 6-point "intensity of presence" scale, from 0, not present, to S, intensely present. For this study, in order to make negative and positive scale scores comparable, a mean intensity of presence score was calculated for each of the four TARS subscales by summing the item ratings for the scale, then dividing by the number of items in the scale. Like the intensity of presence scale for each item, the mean intensity score could range from 0, not present, to 5, intensely present. The mean intensity scores for each subscale will be used in the data analysis. TARS Reliability. For TARS ratings by clinical observers of 42 psychotherapy cases at six points in treatment, internal consistency of the four subscales was evaluated using Cronbach's alpha. For therapist positive items, alpha = .86; for therapist negative items, alpha = .87; for patient positive items, alpha = .93; for patient negative items, alpha = .88. A one-way analysis of variance in which between-judges variance was included in the error term was used to determine intererater reliability. The intraclass correlation coefficients for ratings (n3 therapist positive and 69 negative items subscales ranged from .61 to .77, and for ratings of patient positive and negative item subscales .60 to .83 (Marmar, Marziali, Horowitz, & Weiss, 1985; Marziali, 1984). TARS validity; The available data suggests that the TARS as a whole, and the Patient Positive Contribution scale in particular, has reasonably good criterion-oriented and construct validity. Ratings by clinical judges of the patient's contributions to the alliance are strongly correlated with the patient contributions as perceived by members of the dyad. Judge's ratings of patient positive contributions correlated .56 (p < .001) (with patient ratings and.59 (p (.001) with therapist ratings. Judge ratings of patient negative contributions correlated .44 (p < .01) with patient ratings and .50 (p < .001) with therapist ratings. Correlations of therapist positive contributions as rated by judges with ratings by members of the therapeutic dyad were weaker but still significant (5 = .37, p < .01 and g = .32, p< .05). There was little consensus between patient, therapist, and clinical judge as to the therapistfs negative contribution to the alliance (average _r;=.06) (Marziali, 1984). Patient's pre-therapy ratings of social adjustment were significantly correlated va31 clinical observer ratings of patient negative contributions to the alliance (g ranged from .34 to .51). Convergent findings by 70 Luborsky (1983) and Moras and Strupp (1982) of significant associations between patient social adjustment and patient contributions to the alliance contribute support for the concurrent validity of the TARS, Penn Helping Alliance method, and the Patient Involvement Scale of the VPPS. The association of a history of positive interpersonal relationships with the ability to contribute to the therapeutic relationship is certainly in keeping with the theoretical importance of the patient's capacity for object relations for the development of an alliance. Mean Patient Positive Contribution, Patient Negative Contribution, and Therapist Positive Contribution scores as rated by patients, therapists and clinical observers have been shown to predict a variety of outcome measures. The three subscales have been correlated with patient and therapist evaluations of outcome, with the exception of the observer-rated therapist positive contributions and therapist evaluation of outcome. Positive contributions to the alliance by therapist and patient as rated by the members of the dyad have been demonstrated to predict symptom level at outcome, though observer ratings have not. Observer ratings of patient contributions were predictive of clinical evaluation of dynamic outcome. As early in treatment as sessions one and three, patient and therapist positive contributions to the therapeutic alliance have been demonstrated to correlate with outcome. 71 Some question about the construct validity of the Therapist Negative contribution scale is raised by the finding of a positive correlation between judges' ratings on the subscale in sessions one and three and symptomatic and dynamic improvement. An alternate explanation is that the finding is an artifact of the large number of correlations in the study (Marmar et al., 1985; Marziali, 1984). Correlational analyses to determine the independence of subscales of the TARS provided some support for the theoretical assumption that negative and positive contributions t1) the alliance reflect separate dimensions rather than opposite ends of one continuum, lWith the exception of ratings by clinical judges of patient positive and negative contributions (3 = -u78, 13 < .001L Correlations between patient positive contribution ratings and patient negative contribution ratings by patients and therapists were significantly lower (3 = -.45 and -.60). Therapist positive and negative contributions were most clearly seen as separate dimensions from all three rating perspectives(;;=-u06'U3-.38)(Marziali,l984). A principal components analysis with varimax rotations was carried out to examine the factor structure of the TARS. It should be noted that the consideration given the results of this analysis must be tempered by recognition that there was an inadequate number of subjects (42) in proportion to the scale items (42) to justify this 72 approach. The analysis was repeated for each of six sessions across therapy using all the scale items. Supporting the theoretical construction of the scales, factor analysis revealed that the negative items were not inverse equivalents of the positive items. Regardless of whether the therapeutic alliance was rated by patients, therapists or clinical observers, two factors consistently emerged. Factor I consisted of six patient and eight therapist positive items, including indicators of the patient feeling helped, hopeful, and willing to examine her/his behavior and the therapist conveying hopefulness, support, and involvement in mutual work with the patient. Factor II, consisting of six patient and five therapist negative items, included indicators of patient anger, avoidance, and resistance, and therapist criticism, impatience, and insensitivity to patient wishes. RESULTS Design and Overview of Statistical Analyses A 2 (Patient Prognosis) x 3 (Phase of Treatment, a repeated measure) x 3 (Outcome) factorial design was employed in the study. Data for each TARS subscale was analyzed independently, based on the theoretical rationale for the construction of the measure and on findings reported by past researchers. Marziali (1984) reported fairly low intercorrelations between the Therapist Positive Contribution scale and the Therapist Negative Contribution scale (3 = -.06 to —.38) when rated by patient, therapist and external judges, indicating that the positive and negative items tap separate dimensions of the alliance. Intercorrelations between the Patient Positive Contribution scale and the Patient Negative Contribution scale were higher (_1‘_ = -.45 to -.78), suggesting that the two patient subscales might be collapsed into a single scale. Use of the two patient subscales, however, is justified by the results of principal component analyses that produced separate patient positive and patient negative factors, as well as separate therapist positive and therapist negative factors (Marmar et al., in press). Independent analyses of patient positive and patient negative contributions will 73 74 also facilitate comparisons with past research,imiwhich results have most frequently been presented separately for the two dimensions. Analysis of variance was the predominate statistical approach used to analyze the data. Because the univariate approach to the analysis of the repeated measure design is somewhat more powerful than the multivariate approach, especially with small sample sizes, a univariate analysis was employed when the necessary assumptions were met. The univariate analysis for repeated measures requires that correlations of the dependent variable at each combination of the within subject factors be equal, and that the variances of the dependent variable be equal for all factor combinations. Bartlett's test of sphericity and the Emax test were use to test these assumptions. Inclusion of a between subjects factor in the analysis requires that the variance-covariance matrices for the transformed variable for a particular effect be equal for all levels of between subject factors. Box's M test was used to test this assumption (Hull & Nie, 1981). If any of these assumptions appeared to be violated, a multivariate test of significance, Wilks Lambda, was used to test for within-subjects factor effects. The multivariate approach makes no assumptions about the characteristics of the variance-covariance matrix. Wilks lambda is based on functions of the eigenvalues 75 . -1 of the matr1x §h§e , where §h is the matrix of the sum of squares and cross products for the hypothesis and §e is the matrix of the sum of squares and cross products for the error. An eigenvalue is a measure of the relative importance of the discriminant functions, which are linear combinations of variables expected to differentiate one group of subjects from another. Wilks lambda tests for the statistical significance of the discriminating information not already accounted for by the earlier function. The larger the lambda, the less information not accounted for. Wilks lambda can be transformed into an approximate 5 statistic, with the degrees of freedom depending upon the degrees of freedom for the hypothesis, the degrees of freedom for error, and the minimum number of dependent variables (Hull & Nie, 1981; Klecka, 1970). Results related to the hypotheses will be presented first, followed by a presentation of other findings. Results significant at the .05 level will be reported. For the analyses of variance, tests of simple effects will be reported where appropriate. Classification of Supjects Subjects were classified according to prognosis for forming and maintaining a therapeutic alliance based on the Prognosis score, calculated by subtracting the mean intensity rating on the Patient Negative Contribution scale from the mean intensity rating on the Patient Positive 76 Contribution scale for the first session of treatment. There was a possible range of Prognosis scores from -5 to 5, with. low scores indicating a poorer potential for establishing an alliance and high scores indicating a greater potential. Patient scores ranged from -.1 to 2.5, with a mean of 1.3, a standard deviation of .7, and a median of 1.4. Because of a roughly bi-modal distribution, with prognosis scores clustering around 1.0 to 1.1 and around 1.4 to 1.5, a mean split was used as the cut-off for placement in the high or low prognosis group. It is not possible to compare this distribution of scores to past findings, since the results of previous research with the TARS and the closely related CTAS have been presented only in terms of correlations. Classification of subjects according to prognosis and outcome resulted in six groups. There were 9 subjects in the low prognosis-low outcome group: 3 subjects in the low prognosis-medium outcome group; 2 subjects in the low prognosis-high outcome group; 4 subjects in the high prognosis-low outcome group; 8 subjects in the high prognosis-medium outcome group; and 6 subjects in the high prognosis-high outcome group. Reliability All study segments were rated by both judges, with the exception of two segments on which ratings were missing for one judge. The subscale score, rather than the subscale 77 item, was considered to be the unit of reliability, since data analysis was based on the subscale scores. Interrater reliability was calculated on all study segments with complete data. Because the same two judges rated all segments, and the mean of the judges' ratings was used for the data analysis, judges were considered to be fixed effects. Results of the data analyses were not affected by judge mean differences. A two-way mixed effects analysis of variance was used to obtain the intraclass correlation coefficient, since judges were considered as fixed effects. The form of intraclass correlation coefficient obtained from this analysis is equivalent to Cronbach's (1951) alpha. The reliability index is interpreted in this case as a measure of rater consistency rather than rater agreement (Shrout & Fleiss, 1979). The average intraclass correlations coefficient for the mean rating of each subscale was .59 for the Patient Positive Contribution scale,.70 fortfluaPatient Negative Contribution scale, .46 for the Therapist Positive Contribution scale, and .57 for the Therapist Negative Contribution scale. The average reliabilities for the Therapist Positive and Therapist Negative Contribution scales were attenuated by the low intraclass correlation coefficients for the middle phase of treatment. A Judge x Patient interaction seems a probable explanation for the low coefficients, but in the absence of repeated ratings of 78 each patient by each judge at each phase of treatment, the interaction components and the error components cannot be estimated separately from the analysis of variance. Limited variance in the rating matrix contributed to the difficulty in achieving adequate interrater reliability for the Therapist Positive Contribution scale. Hypotheses Testing Analyses Distribution of patient contribution scores. In Tables 2&nui3, the mean intensity scores for the Patient Postive Contribution scale and Patient Negative Contribution Scale within outcome and prognosis group are presented for each phase of treatment. The reader will be asked to refer to these tables as the results of the analyses of the patient subscales are discussed. Hypothesis one. Hypothesis 1 stated that the positive and negative contributions to the therapeutic alliance made by the patient in the first session of treatment would be predictive of the patientds ability to form and maintain a therapeutic alliance throughout treatment. The data supported this hypothesis. A two (Prognosis) x 3 (Phase, a repeated measure) x 3 (Outcome) analysis of variance produced significant main effects of prognosis for the Patient Positive Contributions scale, 3(1, 26) = 7.26, p <.02, and fortfluaPatient.Negative Contribution scale, 5(1, 26) = 6.24, p < .02. Patients who showed a low prognosis for developing a therapeutic alliance in the 79 Table 2 Mean Intensity Scores for the Patient Positive Contribution Scale Phase of Treatment Outcome Early Middle Late Low prognosis patients Low M 2.53 2.62 2.62 SQ 0.59 0.31 0.50 Medium M 2.21 2.26 2.76 SQ 0.49 0.45 0.17 High M 2.43 2.61 2.54 SD 0.61 0.42 0.06 High prognosis patients Low M 2.95 3.01 2.65 SQ 0.41 0.39 0.60 Medium M 2.74 2.87 2.82 SE 0.38 0.41 0.45 High M 2.74 2.82 3.07 SQ 0.36 0.29 0.28 80 Table 3 Mean Intensity Scores for the Patient Negative Contribution Scale Phase of Treatment Outcome p Early Middle Late Low prognosis patients Low 9 M 1.34 1.51 1 66 S9 0 20 0.33 0 70 Medium 3 M 1.53 2.22 1 65 S2 0 33 0.50 0 33 High 2 M 1.85 2.32 1 70 SD 0 92 1.31 0 35 High prognosis patients Low 4 M 1.14 1.22 1.57 SQ 0.17 ' 0.36 0.56 Medium 8 M 1.41 1.26 1.61 SQ 0.53 0.27 0.71 High 6 M 1.24 1.32 1.15 §_ 0.26 0.28 0.28 81 first session of therapy made more negative contributions and fewer positive contributions to the alliance throughout treatment than patients with initially high prognoses for develOping an alliance. Results of the 2 x 3 x 3 analysis of variance for the Patient Positive and Negative Contribution scales are presented in Tables 4 and 5. A multivariate approach was used to test the within subjects effects for the Patient Negative Contribution scale data because the assumptions of compound symmetry were violated. The univariate approach was used for the Patient Positive Contribution Scale data. Hypothesis Two. Hypothesis 2 stated that patients with an initially poor prognosis for developing an alliance would have greater variability in outcome than patients with a high prognosis. An E-test failed to provide evidence that the variance in outcome classification was 2 = .575) and low significantly different for high (g prognosis (p2 = .577) patients, §(13, 17)= 1.00, n.s. F- tests comparing the variance in outcome as measured by posttreatment Gross Pathology Index scores on the SCL-90-R also failed to reach significance, §(13, 17) = .95, n.s. (High prognosis, §2 = .104; low prognosis, s2 = .099). There was a trend toward greater variance in the pre- to posttreatment difference scores on the Gross Pathology Index for low prognosis patients (§2==.523) than for high prognosis patients (§2==.24IJ, {(13, 17) =2.17, p:<.10. Table 4 Summary of 2 (Prognosis) x 3 (Outcome) x 3 Results for the Patient Positive Contribution Scale (Phase) Manova Source of variance g; Mean square 3 p Prognosis 1 2.176 7.26 .02 Outcome 2 .110 (1.00 .70 Prognosis by outcome 2 .028 (1.00 .91 Error between 26 .300 Phase 2 .142 (1.00 .32 Prognosis by phase 2 .035 (1.00 .75 Outcome by phase 4 .150 1.22 .32 Prognosis by outcome by 4 .102 (1.00 .51 phase Error within 52 .123 * p<.05 .‘l'lll. Illlll‘lill‘l 83 Table 5 Summary of 2 (Prognosis) x 3 (Outcome) x 3 (Phase) Manova Results for the Patient Negative Contribution Scale * Between subjects factor effects Source of Variance df Mean square E p Prognosis 1 2.074 6.24 .02* Outcome 2 .437 1.31 .29 Prognosis by outcome 2 .404 1.22 .31 Error between 26 .332 Multivariate test for within-subjects factor effects Effect Wilks Hypothesis Error 3 p Lambda df g; Phase .844 2 25 2.32 .12 Prognosis by phase .838 2 25 2.42 .11 Outcome by phase .840 4 50 1.14 .35 Prognosis by outcome .870 4 50 <1.00 .47 by phase p < .05 84 While patients with an initially poor prognosis for developing an alliance showed some tendency to be more varied than high prognosis patients in the amount of change they achieved during treatment, they were no more varied in their final outcome. Hypothesis Three. Hypothesis 3 stated that, among patients who achieve a significant change in psychotherapy, positive patient contributions will be greater in late than in early sessions of treatment. Hypothesis 3 was partially supported. Though the main effect of phase of treatment for the pooled patient positive data of high and medium outcome patients failed to reach significance, {(2,136) = 2.71, p < .10, a contrast between the early and late phases of treatment produced a significant difference, 5(1, 18) = 5.33, p <.05. Patients who achieved a statistically reliable change showed a significant increase from early in treatment (M = 2.9) to late in treatment (M = 3.2) in the intensity of presence of their positive contributions to the therapeutic alliance. Hypothesis Four. Hypothesis 4 stated that there would be a significant difference in the course of patient positive and negative contributions to the therapeutic alliance between patients who achieve clinically significant change and patients who achieve no reliable change. No support for Hypothesis 4 was found. The 2 (Low versus High Outcome) x 3 (Phase) analysis of variance 85 produced no significant Outcome x Phase interaction, 5(2, 38) = 1.08, n.s., and no main effect of outcome, E (1, 19) < L0, n.su for the Patient Positive Contribution Scale. No Outcome x Phase interaction, _F_'_(2, 18) = 1.49, n.s., and no main effect of outcome, F(1, 19) = 1.11, n.su (was obtained for the Patient Negative Contribution scale. Patients who achieved a statistically reliable, clinically significant change during psychotherapy and patients who achieved no reliable change did not differ in their positive and negative contributions to the therapeutic alliance during the course of treatment. The Outcome x Phase analysis of variance results for the Patient Positive and Negative Contribution scales are presented in full in Tables A-1 and A-2 of the Appendix. Distribution of therapist contribution scores. In Tables 6 and 7, the mean intensity scores for the Therapist Patient Postive Contribution scale and Therapist Negative Contribution Scale within outcome and prognosis group are presented for each phase of treatment. The reader will be asked to refer to these tables as the results of the analyses of the therapist subscales data are discussed. Hypothesis Five. Hypothesis 5 stated that within patients with a: poor capacity for establishing a therapeutic alliance, ‘therapist positive contributions to the alliance would be positively related to successful outcome; therapist negative contributions would be 86 Table 6 Mean Intensity Scores for the Therapist Positive Contribution Scale Phase of Treatment Outcome p Early Middle Late Low prognosis patients Low 9 M 2.37 2.46 2.28 SD 0.38 0.28 0.45 Medium 3 M 2.23 2.64 2.41 SQ 0.58 0.12 0.57 High 2 M 2.27 2.66 2.61 SD 0.13 0.16 0.03 High prognosis patients Low 4 M 2.55 2.72 2.37 SQ 0.16 0.09 0.38 Medium 8 M 2.39 2.58 2.51 SD 0.38 0.34 0.39 High 6 M 2.42 2.56 2.52 SD 0.57 0.48 0.29 87 Table 7 Mean Intensity Scores for the Therapist Negative Contribution Scale Phase of Treatment Outcome p Early Middle Late Low prognosis patients Low 9 M 1.21 1.22 1.77 SQ 0.28 0.24 0.73 Medium 3 M 1.12 1.53 1.63 SQ 0.32 0.63 0.79 High 2 M 2.02 1.62 1.85 SQ 0.32 0.18 1.41 High prognosis patients Low 4 M 0.91 0.95 1.55 SQ 0.11 0.17 0.49 Medium 8 M 1.45 1.20 1.12 SQ 0.72 0.39 0.27 High 6 M 1.22 1.31 1.02 SD 0.35 0.32 0.07 88 negatively related to successful outcome. No support for Hypothesis 5 was obtained. Because of the small number of low prognosis patients Q1==14), the data for mediunl(p = 3) and high outcome patients (p = 2) was pooled to form a reliable change group for this analysis. Because the assumption of compound symmetry was violated, the multivariate approach was used in analyzing the within subject effects for the Therapist Negative Contribution scale. The 2 (No Reliable Change versus Reliable Change) x 3 (Phase) analyses of variance produced no significant main effect of reliable change and no interactive effect of reliable change with phase of treatment for therapist positive (Reliable change: _F_(1, 12) < 1.0, n.s.; Reliable Change x Phase: F(2, 24) = 1H3, ILS.) or therapist negative contributions (Reliable change: 3(1, 12) = 1.16, ILS.; Reliable change x Phase: §(2, 11) < 1.0, n.sJ. The analysis of variance results are presented in full in Tables A-3 and A-4 of the Appendix. Hypothesis Six. Hypothesis 6 stated that therapist alliance-related behavior would be more strongly associated with patient alliance-related behavior for low prognosis patients than for high prognosis patients. No support was obtained for Hypothesis 6. For each prognosis group, Pearson product-moment correlation coefficients were calculated for each pair of subscale scores for each phase of treatment. Fisher's Z-transformations of the 89 product-moment correlations coefficients were then used to test the hypothesis that the relationship between patient and therapist subscales at each point in time was stronger for low prognosis patients than for high prognosis patients. None of the correlations between patient and therapist subscales were significantly higher for low prognosis patients than for high prognosis patients. Prognosis Measure Prognosis for the alliance. Data for each TARS subscale was subjected to a 2 (Prognosis) x 3 (Outcome) x 3 (Phase of Treatment) analysis of variance. Results of the analyses for the Patient Positive Contribution scale are presented in Table 4, the Patient Negative Contribution scale in Table 5, the Therapist Positive Contribution scale in Table 8, and the Therapist Negative Contribution scale in Table 9. The validity of the Prognosis score as a predictor of the patient's ability to establish and maintain a therapeutic alliance throughout treatment was supported by the finding of a main effect of prognosis on patient positive and patient negative contributions to the therapeutic alliance across treatment, as